Stress before extinction learning enhances and generalizes extinction memory in a predictive learning task.

Science.gov (United States)

Meir Drexler, Shira; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

2017-05-01

In extinction learning, the individual learns that a previously acquired association (e.g. between a threat and its predictor) is no longer valid. This learning is the principle underlying many cognitive-behavioral psychotherapeutic treatments, e.g. 'exposure therapy'. However, extinction is often highly-context dependent, leading to renewal (relapse of extinguished conditioned response following context change). We have previously shown that post-extinction stress leads to a more context-dependent extinction memory in a predictive learning task. Yet as stress prior to learning can impair the integration of contextual cues, here we aim to create a more generalized extinction memory by inducing stress prior to extinction. Forty-nine men and women learned the associations between stimuli and outcomes in a predictive learning task (day 1), extinguished them shortly after an exposure to a stress/control condition (day 2), and were tested for renewal (day 3). No group differences were seen in acquisition and extinction learning, and a renewal effect was present in both groups. However, the groups differed in the strength and context-dependency of the extinction memory. Compared to the control group, the stress group showed an overall reduced recovery of responding to the extinguished stimuli, in particular in the acquisition context. These results, together with our previous findings, demonstrate that the effects of stress exposure on extinction memory depend on its timing. While post-extinction stress makes the memory more context-bound, pre-extinction stress strengthens its consolidation for the acquisition context as well, making it potentially more resistant to relapse. These results have implications for the use of glucocorticoids as extinction-enhancers in exposure therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevational distribution and extinction risk in birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel L White

Full Text Available Mountainous regions are hotspots of terrestrial biodiversity. Unlike islands, which have been the focus of extensive research on extinction dynamics, fewer studies have examined mountain ranges even though they face increasing threats from human pressures - notably habitat conversion and climate change. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent and resolution of previously available information have precluded an explicit assessment of the relative role of elevational distribution in determining extinction risk. We use a new global species-level avian database to quantify the influence of elevational distribution (range, maximum and midpoint on extinction risk in birds at the global scale. We also tested this relationship within biogeographic realms, higher taxonomic levels, and across phylogenetic contrasts. Potential confounding variables (i.e. phylogenetic, distributional, morphological, life history and niche breadth were also tested and controlled for. We show that the three measures of elevational distribution are strong negative predictors of avian extinction risk, with elevational range comparable and complementary to that of geographical range size. Extinction risk was also found to be positively associated with body weight, development and adult survival, but negatively associated with reproduction and niche breadth. The robust and consistent findings from this study demonstrate the importance of elevational distribution as a key driver of variation in extinction dynamics in birds. Our results also highlight elevational distribution as a missing criterion in current schemes for quantifying extinction risk and setting species conservation priorities in birds. Further research is recommended to test for generality across non-avian taxa, which will require an advance in our knowledge of species' current elevational ranges and increased efforts to digitise and centralise such data.

Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew C. Fisher

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

2001-12-07

Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting.

Extinction produces context inhibition and multiple-context extinction reduces response recovery in human predictive learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Glautier, Steven; Elgueta, Tito; Nelson, James Byron

2013-12-01

Two experiments with human participants were used to investigate recovery of an extinguished learned response after a context change using ABC designs. In an ABC design, the context changes over the three successive stages of acquisition (context A), extinction (context B), and test (context C). In both experiments, we found reduced recovery in groups that had extinction in multiple contexts, and that the extinction contexts acquired inhibitory strength. These results confirm those of previous investigations, that multiple-context extinction can produce less response recovery than single-context extinction, and they also provide new evidence for the involvement of contextual inhibitory processes in extinction in humans. The foregoing results are broadly in line with a protection-from-extinction account of response recovery. Yet, despite the fact that we detected contextual inhibition, predictions based on protection-from-extinction were not fully reliable for the single- and multiple-context group differences that we observed in (1) rates of extinction and (2) the strength of context inhibition. Thus, although evidence was obtained for a protection-from-extinction account of response recovery, this account can not explain all of the data.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

Science.gov (United States)

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

Variation in extinction risk among birds: chance or evolutionary predisposition?

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, P. M.; Owens, I. P. F.

1997-01-01

Collar et al. (1994) estimate that of the 9,672 extant species of bird, 1,111 are threatened by extinction. Here, we test whether these threatened species are simply a random sample of birds, or whether there is something about their biology that predisposes them to extinction. We ask three specific questions. First, is extinction risk randomly distributed among families? Second, which families, if any, contain more, or less, threatened species than would be expected by chance? Third, is variation between taxa in extinction risk associated with variation in either body size or fecundity? Extinction risk is not randomly distributed among families. The families which contain significantly more threatened species than expected are the parrots (Psittacidae), pheasants and allies (Phasianidae), albatrosses and allies (Procellariidae), rails (Rallidae), cranes (Gruidae), cracids (Cracidae), megapodes (Megapodidae) and pigeons (Columbidae). The only family which contains significantly fewer threatened species than expected is the woodpeckers (Picidae). Extinction risk is also not distributed randomly with respect to fecundity or body size. Once phylogeny has been controlled for, increases in extinction risk are independently associated with increases in body size and decreases in fecundity. We suggest that this is because low rates of fecundity, which evolved many tens of millions of years ago, predisposed certain lineages to extinction. Low-fecundity populations take longer to recover if they are reduced to small sizes and are, therefore, more likely to go extinct if an external force causes an increase in the rate of mortality, thereby perturbing the natural balance between fecundity and mortality.

Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

2013-01-01

The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide.

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

Science.gov (United States)

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2011-01-01

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

Rethinking Trade-Driven Extinction Risk in Marine and Terrestrial Megafauna.

Science.gov (United States)

McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B; Dulvy, Nicholas K

2016-06-20

Large animals hunted for the high value of their parts (e.g., elephant ivory and shark fins) are at risk of extinction due to both intensive international trade pressure and intrinsic biological sensitivity. However, the relative role of trade, particularly in non-perishable products, and biological factors in driving extinction risk is not well understood [1-4]. Here we identify a taxonomically diverse group of >100 marine and terrestrial megafauna targeted for international luxury markets; estimate their value across three points of sale; test relationships among extinction risk, high value, and body size; and quantify the effects of two mitigating factors: poaching fines and geographic range size. We find that body size is the principal driver of risk for lower value species, but that this biological pattern is eliminated above a value threshold, meaning that the most valuable species face a high extinction risk regardless of size. For example, once mean product values exceed US$12,557 kg(-1), body size no longer drives risk. Total value scales with size for marine animals more strongly than for terrestrial animals, incentivizing the hunting of large marine individuals and species. Poaching fines currently have little effect on extinction risk; fines would need to be increased 10- to 100-fold to be effective. Large geographic ranges reduce risk for terrestrial, but not marine, species, whose ranges are ten times greater. Our results underscore both the evolutionary and ecosystem consequences of targeting large marine animals and the need to geographically scale up and prioritize conservation of high-value marine species to avoid extinction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

2014-12-01

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

Science.gov (United States)

Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous

DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

Science.gov (United States)

The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals

Science.gov (United States)

Crooks, Kevin R.; Burdett, Christopher L.; Theobald, David M.; King, Sarah R. B.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

2017-01-01

Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world’s terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world’s terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation. PMID:28673992

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter S Rand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

2008-02-01

Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

The three-quarter power scaling of extinction risk in Late Pleistocene mammals, and a new theory of the size selectivity of extinction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polishchuk, L.

2010-01-01

Questions: What is the pattern of body mass versus extinction risk in the Late Pleistocene extinctions of mammals, both qualitatively and quantitatively? Are there patterns that relate extinction risk to the well-known allometries of body mass with population density or population growth rate?

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike S Fowler

Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

An Improved Method of Predicting Extinction Coefficients for the Determination of Protein Concentration.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilario, Eric C; Stern, Alan; Wang, Charlie H; Vargas, Yenny W; Morgan, Charles J; Swartz, Trevor E; Patapoff, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Concentration determination is an important method of protein characterization required in the development of protein therapeutics. There are many known methods for determining the concentration of a protein solution, but the easiest to implement in a manufacturing setting is absorption spectroscopy in the ultraviolet region. For typical proteins composed of the standard amino acids, absorption at wavelengths near 280 nm is due to the three amino acid chromophores tryptophan, tyrosine, and phenylalanine in addition to a contribution from disulfide bonds. According to the Beer-Lambert law, absorbance is proportional to concentration and path length, with the proportionality constant being the extinction coefficient. Typically the extinction coefficient of proteins is experimentally determined by measuring a solution absorbance then experimentally determining the concentration, a measurement with some inherent variability depending on the method used. In this study, extinction coefficients were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds of the four amino acid chromophores. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with an experimental concentration determination based on enzymatic digestion of proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native proteins was consistently found to be 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded proteins for a wide range of proteins with good accuracy and precision under well-controlled experimental conditions. The value of 1.05 times the calculated value was termed the predicted extinction coefficient. Statistical analysis shows that the differences between predicted and experimentally determined coefficients are scattered randomly, indicating no systematic bias between the values among the proteins measured. The predicted extinction coefficient was found to be accurate and not subject to the inherent variability of experimental methods. We propose the use of a

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Bergerot

Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

2015-02-16

Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

OpenAIRE

Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

2001-01-01

Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we...

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J; McCauley, Douglas J

2017-10-03

Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

Stress enhances the consolidation of extinction memory in a predictive learning task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja eHamacher-Dang

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Extinction is not always permanent, as indicated by several types of recovery effects, such as the renewal effect, which may occur after a context change and points towards the importance of contextual cues. Strengthening the retrieval of extinction memory is a crucial aim of extinction-based psychotherapeutic treatments of anxiety disorders to prevent relapse. Stress is known to modulate learning and memory, with mostly enhancing effects on memory consolidation. However, whether such a consolidation-enhancing effect of acute stress can also be found for extinction memory has not yet been examined in humans. In this study, we investigated the effect of stress after extinction learning on the retrieval of extinction memory in a predictive learning renewal paradigm. Participants took the part of being the doctor of a fictitious patient and learned to predict whether certain food stimuli were associated with ‘stomach trouble’ in two different restaurants (contexts. On the first day, critical stimuli were associated with stomach trouble in context A (acquisition phase. On the second day, these associations were extinguished in context B. Directly after extinction, participants were either exposed to a stressor (socially evaluated cold pressor test; n = 22 or a control condition (n = 24. On the third day, we tested retrieval of critical associations in contexts A and B. Participants exposed to stress after extinction exhibited a reduced recovery of responding at test in context B, suggesting that stress may context-dependently enhance the consolidation of extinction memory. Furthermore, the increase in cortisol in response to the stressor was negatively correlated with the recovery of responding in context A. Our findings suggest that in parallel to the known effects of stress on the consolidation of episodic memory, stress also enhances the consolidation of extinction memory, which might be relevant for potential applications in extinction

Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics

OpenAIRE

Kotiaho, Janne S.; Kaitala, Veijo; Komonen, Atte; Päivinen, Jussi

2005-01-01

Understanding the ultimate causes of population declines and extinction is vital in our quest to stop the currently rampant biodiversity loss. Comparison of ecological characteristics between threatened and nonthreatened species may reveal these ultimate causes. Here, we report an analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species. Our analysis reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distrib...

Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis-Miguel Chevin

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Seibold, Sebastian; Brandl, Roland; Buse, Jörn; Hothorn, Torsten; Schmidl, Jürgen; Thorn, Simon; Müller, Jörg

2015-04-01

To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

Science.gov (United States)

Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

2013-12-01

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats

Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian

2006-06-01

Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karin C Harding

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

Phylogenetic Patterns of Extinction Risk in the Eastern Arc Ecosystems, an African Biodiversity Hotspot

OpenAIRE

Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Daru, Barnabas H.; Davies, T. Jonathan

2012-01-01

There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ...

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

2018-05-01

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Hwanseok; Schuldt, Jonathon P

2017-09-01

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Boughton

2002-12-01

Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

Protection of Marine Fish Stocks at Risk of Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

J.A. Musick; S.A. Berkeley; G.M. Cailliet; M. Camhi; G. Huntsman; M. Nammack; Melvin L. Warren

2000-01-01

The American Fisheries Society (AFS) recommends that registory agencies closely scrutinize both marine fish and invertebrate stocks that may be at risk of extinction and take remedial action before populations are threatened or endungered. Initial AFS analyses of marine stocks at risk in North America show at least four primary geographic "hot spots" with...

Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise

OpenAIRE

Heino, M; Ripa, Jörgen; Kaitala, V

2000-01-01

Positively autocorrelated red environmental noise is characterized by a strong dependence of expected sample variance on sample length. This dependence has to be taken into account when assessing extinction risk under red and white uncorrelated environmental noise. To facilitate a comparison between red and white noise, their expected variances can be scaled to be equal, but only at a chosen time scale. We show with a simple one-dimensional population dynamics model that the different but equ...

Extinction Risk of Phytoplankton Species to Potential Killing Mechanisms at the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Bralower, T. J.; Schueth, J.; Jiang, S.

2013-05-01

The impact at Chicxulub caused catastrophic changes in marine habitats including extended darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. These changes were devastating to some groups of phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain while others escaped virtually unscathed. For example, diatoms had ~85% survival across the boundary and dinoflagellates actually increased in diversity. These non-calcareous plankton most likely survived due to their adaptation to high-stress environments and their ability to form spores and resting cysts. The calcareous nannoplankton, however, were decimated with approximately 85% of genera and 93% of species going extinct. Nannoplankton generally lack the ability to encyst and thus, as a group, would have been susceptible to darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. However, we still do not fully understand why certain nannofossil taxa survived while others went extinct. Extinction risk, the projected susceptibility of a taxon to extinction based on its ecology and ability to adapt, is a concept that is widely applied to extant species and higher order fossil groups, but not to phytoplankton. This concept is a useful for probing the selectivity of ancient species to mass extinction. Determining the extinction risk of latest Maastrichtian nannoplankton species would be a step towards understanding the selection of survivors. The deep-sea record contains a remarkable archive of nannoplankton extinction and recovery across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. The recovery was geologically extended, enabling detailed comparisons between the ocean basins. A large, global database of assemblages had led to the discovery that the Northern Hemisphere oceans suffered higher nannoplankton extinction rates than the Southern Hemisphere with an ecological "crisis" that lasted for approximately 350 thousand years after the impact. In addition, incumbency played a major role in the origination of new species. Since extinction almost

Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

OpenAIRE

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

2009-01-01

Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species

Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meike Pappens

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

Body Size, Extinction Risk and Knowledge Bias in New World Snakes

Science.gov (United States)

Vilela, Bruno; Villalobos, Fabricio; Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Terribile, Levi Carina

2014-01-01

Extinction risk and body size have been found to be related in various vertebrate groups, with larger species being more at risk than smaller ones. We checked whether this was also the case for snakes by investigating extinction risk–body size relationships in the New World's Colubroidea species. We used the IUCN Red List risk categories to assign each species to one of two broad levels of threat (Threatened and Non-Threatened) or to identify it as either Data Deficient or Not-Evaluated by the IUCN. We also included the year of description of each species in our analysis as this could affect the level of threat assigned to it (earlier described species had more time to gather information about them, which might have facilitated their evaluation). Also, species detectability could be a function of body size, with larger species tending to be described earlier, which could have an impact in extinction risk–body size relationships. We found a negative relationship between body size and description year, with large-bodied species being described earlier. Description year also varied among risk categories, with Non-Threatened species being described earlier than Threatened species and both species groups earlier than Data Deficient species. On average, Data Deficient species also presented smaller body sizes, while no size differences were detected between Threatened and Non-Threatened species. So it seems that smaller body sizes are related with species detectability, thus potentially affecting both when a species is described (smaller species tend to be described more recently) as well as the amount of information gathered about it (Data Deficient species tend to be smaller). Our data also indicated that if Data Deficient species were to be categorized as Threatened in the future, snake body size and extinction risk would be negatively related, contrasting with the opposite pattern commonly observed in other vertebrate groups. PMID:25409293

Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

2014-01-01

Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

2008-02-01

Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

Resting-state functional connectivity between amygdala and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex following fear reminder predicts fear extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Pan; Zheng, Yong

2016-01-01

Investigations of fear conditioning have elucidated the neural mechanisms of fear acquisition, consolidation and extinction, but it is not clear how the neural activation following fear reminder influence the following extinction. To address this question, we measured human brain activity following fear reminder using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, and investigated whether the extinction effect can be predicted by resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC). Behaviorally, we found no significant differences of fear ratings between the reminder group and the no reminder group at the fear acquisition and extinction stages, but spontaneous recovery during re-extinction stage appeared only in the no reminder group. Imaging data showed that functional connectivity between ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and amygdala in the reminder group was greater than that in the no reminder group after fear memory reactivation. More importantly, the functional connectivity between amygdala and vmPFC of the reminder group after fear memory reactivation was positively correlated with extinction effect. These results suggest RSFC between amygdala and the vmPFC following fear reminder can predict fear extinction, which provide important insight into the neural mechanisms of fear memory after fear memory reactivation. PMID:27013104

Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade

OpenAIRE

Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P.; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J. R.; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C. Darrin

2013-01-01

Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower ...

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

Science.gov (United States)

Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

2018-02-01

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

2014-06-01

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

Trends in extinction risk for imperiled species in Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brett Favaro

Full Text Available Protecting and promoting recovery of species at risk of extinction is a critical component of biodiversity conservation. In Canada, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC determines whether species are at risk of extinction or extirpation, and has conducted these assessments since 1977. We examined trends in COSEWIC assessments to identify whether at-risk species that have been assessed more than once tended to improve, remain constant, or deteriorate in status, as a way of assessing the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in Canada. Of 369 species that met our criteria for examination, 115 deteriorated, 202 remained unchanged, and 52 improved in status. Only 20 species (5.4% improved to the point where they were 'not at risk', and five of those were due to increased sampling efforts rather than an increase in population size. Species outcomes were also dependent on the severity of their initial assessment; for example, 47% of species that were initially listed as special concern deteriorated between assessments. After receiving an at-risk assessment by COSEWIC, a species is considered for listing under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA, which is the primary national tool that mandates protection for at-risk species. We examined whether SARA-listing was associated with improved COSEWIC assessment outcomes relative to unlisted species. Of 305 species that had multiple assessments and were SARA-listed, 221 were listed at a level that required identification and protection of critical habitat; however, critical habitat was fully identified for only 56 of these species. We suggest that the Canadian government should formally identify and protect critical habitat, as is required by existing legislation. In addition, our finding that at-risk species in Canada rarely recover leads us to recommend that every effort be made to actively prevent species from becoming at-risk in the first place.

High male sexual investment as a driver of extinction in fossil ostracods.

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Maria João Fernandes; Puckett, T Markham; Lockwood, Rowan; Swaddle, John P; Hunt, Gene

2018-04-01

Sexual selection favours traits that confer advantages in the competition for mates. In many cases, such traits are costly to produce and maintain, because the costs help to enforce the honesty of these signals and cues 1 . Some evolutionary models predict that sexual selection also produces costs at the population level, which could limit the ability of populations to adapt to changing conditions and thus increase the risk of extinction 2-4 . Other models, however, suggest that sexual selection should increase rates of adaptation and enhance the removal of deleterious mutations, thus protecting populations against extinction 3, 5, 6 . Resolving the conflict between these models is not only important for explaining the history of biodiversity, but also relevant to understanding the mechanisms of the current biodiversity crisis. Previous attempts to test the conflicting predictions produced by these models have been limited to extant species and have thus relied on indirect proxies for species extinction. Here we use the informative fossil record of cytheroid ostracods-small, bivalved crustaceans with sexually dimorphic carapaces-to test how sexual selection relates to actual species extinction. We show that species with more pronounced sexual dimorphism, indicating the highest levels of male investment in reproduction, had estimated extinction rates that were ten times higher than those of the species with the lowest investment. These results indicate that sexual selection can be a substantial risk factor for extinction.

Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

2014-01-01

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los �

Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List

Science.gov (United States)

Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gärdenfors, Ulf; Keith, David A.; Punt, André E.; Regan, Helen M.; Böhm, Monika; Hedges, Simon; Seddon, Mary; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steven P.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species. PMID:27072401

POST-RETRIEVAL EXTINCTION ATTENUATES ALCOHOL CUE REACTIVITY IN RATS

Science.gov (United States)

Cofresí, Roberto U.; Lewis, Suzanne M.; Chaudhri, Nadia; Lee, Hongjoo J.; Monfils, Marie-H.; Gonzales, Rueben A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Conditioned responses to alcohol-associated cues can hinder recovery from alcohol use disorder (AUD). Cue exposure (extinction) therapy (CET) can reduce reactivity to alcohol cues, but its efficacy is limited by phenomena such as spontaneous recovery and reinstatement that can cause a return of conditioned responding after extinction. Using a preclinical model of alcohol cue reactivity in rats, we evaluated whether the efficacy of alcohol CET could be improved by conducting CET during the memory reconsolidation window after retrieval of a cue-alcohol association. METHODS Rats were provided with intermittent access to unsweetened alcohol. Rats were then trained to predict alcohol access based on a visual cue. Next, rats were treated with either standard extinction (n=14) or post-retrieval extinction (n=13). Rats were then tested for long-term memory of extinction and susceptibility to spontaneous recovery and reinstatement. RESULTS Despite equivalent extinction, rats treated with post-retrieval extinction exhibited reduced spontaneous recovery and reinstatement relative to rats treated with standard extinction. CONCLUSIONS Post-retrieval CET shows promise for persistently attenuating the risk to relapse posed by alcohol cues in individuals with AUD. PMID:28169439

Co-extinction in a host-parasite network: identifying key hosts for network stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dallas, Tad; Cornelius, Emily

2015-08-17

Parasites comprise a substantial portion of total biodiversity. Ultimately, this means that host extinction could result in many secondary extinctions of obligate parasites and potentially alter host-parasite network structure. Here, we examined a highly resolved fish-parasite network to determine key hosts responsible for maintaining parasite diversity and network structure (quantified here as nestedness and modularity). We evaluated four possible host extinction orders and compared the resulting co-extinction dynamics to random extinction simulations; including host removal based on estimated extinction risk, parasite species richness and host level contributions to nestedness and modularity. We found that all extinction orders, except the one based on realistic extinction risk, resulted in faster declines in parasite diversity and network structure relative to random biodiversity loss. Further, we determined species-level contributions to network structure were best predicted by parasite species richness and host family. Taken together, we demonstrate that a small proportion of hosts contribute substantially to network structure and that removal of these hosts results in rapid declines in parasite diversity and network structure. As network stability can potentially be inferred through measures of network structure, our findings may provide insight into species traits that confer stability.

A GIS-based comparison of the Mexican national and IUCN methods for determining extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Arroyo, Teresa P Feria; Olson, Mark E; García-Mendoza, Abisaí; Solano, Eloy

2009-10-01

The national systems used in the evaluation of extinction risk are often touted as more readily applied and somehow more regionally appropriate than the system of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We compared risk assessments of the Mexican national system (method for evaluation of risk of extinction of wild species [MER]) with the IUCN system for the 16 Polianthes taxa (Agavaceae), a genus of plants with marked variation in distribution sizes. We used a novel combination of herbarium data, geographic information systems (GIS), and species distribution models to provide rapid, repeatable estimates of extinction risk. Our GIS method showed that the MER and the IUCN system use similar data. Our comparison illustrates how the IUCN method can be applied even when all desirable data are not available, and that the MER offers no special regional advantage with respect to the IUCN regional system. Instead, our results coincided, with both systems identifying 14 taxa of conservation concern and the remaining two taxa of low risk, largely because both systems use similar information. An obstacle for the application of the MER is that there are no standards for quantifying the criteria of habitat condition and intrinsic biological vulnerability. If these impossible-to-quantify criteria are left out, what are left are geographical distribution and the impact of human activity, essentially the considerations we were able to assess for the IUCN method. Our method has the advantage of making the IUCN criteria easy to apply, and because each step can be standardized between studies, it ensures greater comparability of extinction risk estimates among taxa.

Predictors of extinction risk of passerine birds in a Central European country

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Koleček, Jaroslav; Albrecht, Tomáš; Reif, J.

2014-01-01

Roč. 17, č. 5 (2014), s. 498-506 ISSN 1367-9430 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : red list * life history * habitat specialization * distribution * climate change * threatened species * extinction risk * passerine Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 2.852, year: 2014

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

Science.gov (United States)

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Diversity, extinction risk and conservation of Malaysian fishes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, V C; Lee, P K Y; Lau, C M

2010-06-01

A total of 1951 species of freshwater and marine fishes belonging to 704 genera and 186 families are recorded in Malaysia. Almost half (48%) are currently threatened to some degree, while nearly one third (27%) mostly from the marine and coral habitats require urgent scientific studies to evaluate their status. Freshwater habitats encompass the highest percentage of threatened fish species (87%) followed by estuarine habitats (66%). Of the 32 species of highly threatened (HT) species, 16 are freshwater and 16 are largely marine-euryhaline species. Fish extinctions in Malaysia are confined to two freshwater species, but both freshwater and marine species are being increasingly threatened by largely habitat loss or modification (76%), overfishing (27%) and by-catch (23%). The most important threat to freshwater fishes is habitat modification and overfishing, while 35 species are threatened due to their endemism. Brackish-water, euryhaline and marine fishes are threatened mainly by overfishing, by-catch and habitat modification. Sedimentation (pollution) additionally threatens coral-reef fishes. The study provides recommendations to governments, fish managers, scientists and stakeholders to address the increasing and unabated extinction risks faced by the Malaysian fish fauna.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Tracewski, Łukasz; Butchart, Stuart H M; Di Marco, Moreno; Ficetola, Gentile F; Rondinini, Carlo; Symes, Andy; Wheatley, Hannah; Beresford, Alison E; Buchanan, Graeme M

2016-10-01

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk: Mechanisms and synthesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David H. Reed

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Across the globe, much current research reflects concerns over the effect of habitat fragmentation on the viability of species and populations. This is an immediate and important concern for the Kingdom of Thailand, where decisions about land use are at a critical juncture. Thailand is in danger of losing species that play a special role in Thai culture and history such as the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus and the tiger (Panthera tigris. We provide a selective review and synthesis of the effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk. Our emphasis is on objectives, causal mechanisms, and the validity of some of the arguments that have been made in the debate. Heuristic models are explored to elucidate mechanisms that may affect populations in fragmented landscapes and we point out gaps in our knowledge of this important and complicated question. Our synthesis of the current evidence suggests that fragmenting landscapes usually increases the risk of extinction, especially as the isolation of patches increases or the size of patches decreases. The Kingdom of Thailand, and other countries facing similar circumstances, should seek to connect isolated patches of habitat in order to better protect their remaining biodiversity.

Distribution, ecology, life history, genetic variation, and risk of extinction of nonhuman primates from Costa Rica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María E Zaldívar

2004-09-01

Full Text Available We examined the association between geographic distribution, ecological traits, life history, genetic diversity, and risk of extinction in nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica. All of the current nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica are included in the study; spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi, howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata, capuchins (Cebus capucinus, and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri oerstedii. Geographic distribution was characterized accessing existing databases. Data on ecology and life history traits were obtained through a literature review. Genetic diversity was characterized using isozyme electrophoresis. Risk of extinction was assessed from the literature. We found that species differed in all these traits. Using these data, we conducted a Pearson correlation between risk of extinction and ecological and life history traits, and genetic variation, for widely distributed species. We found a negative association between risk of extinction and population birth and growth rates; indicating that slower reproducing species had a greater risk of extinction. We found a positive association between genetic variation and risk of extinction; i.e., species showing higher genetic variation had a greater risk of extinction. The relevance of these traits for conservation efforts is discussed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 52(3: 679-693. Epub 2004 Dic 15.Se estudió la asociación entre la distribución geográfica, algunos rasgos ecológicos, las historias de vida, la diversidad genética y el riesgo de extinción, en primates no humanos de Costa Rica. Se incluyen todas las especies de primates no humanos del país: los monos araña (Ateles geoffroyi, congo (Alouatta palliata, cara blanca (Cebus capucinus, y tití (Saimiri oerstedii. La distribución geográfica se caracterizó utilizando principalmente bases de datos existentes. Se obtuvo información acerca de sus características ecológicas y de historias de vida mediante una revisión bibliogr

Rates of movement of threatened bird species between IUCN red list categories and toward extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooke, M de L; Butchart, S H M; Garnett, S T; Crowley, G M; Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Stattersfield, A J

2008-04-01

In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988-2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

A reconciliation of extinction theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sabine, T.M.

1988-01-01

The differences between previous theoretical treatments of extinction based on the Darwin intensity equations arise because of the different functional form chosen for the coupling constant σ. When the same function is used these theories make closely similar predictions. It is shown that a limiting condition on integrated intensity as the crystal size increases puts restrictions on the functions which may be used. A Lorentzian or Fresnellian function can be used for primary extinction while secondary extinction requires a Gaussian, rectangular or triangular function. An analytical expression is given for the variation in the value of the extinction factor with scattering angle. (orig.)

Extinction risk and conservation of the world's sharks and rays

OpenAIRE

Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Fowler, Sarah L.; Musick, John A.; Cavanagh, Rachel D.; Kyne, Peter M.; Harrison, Lucy R.; Carlson, John K.; Davidson, Lindsay N. K.; Fordham, Sonja V.; Francis, Malcolm P.; Pollock, Caroline M.; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.; Burgess, George H.; Carpenter, Kent E.; Compagno, Leonard J. V.

2013-01-01

eLife digest Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from overfishing, climate change, habitat destruction and pollution. These pressures have led to documented declines of some fishes in some places, such as those living in coral reefs and on the high seas. However, it is not clear whether these population declines are isolated one-off examples or, instead, if they are sufficiently widespread to risk the extinction of large numbers of species. Most fishes have a skeleton that is made of bone, bu...

Evolution: Postponing Extinction by Polyandry

OpenAIRE

Wade, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Sex-ratio meiotic drive occurs when males produce a predominance of X-chromosome bearing sperm and an inordinate number of daughters. A driving X causes highly female-biased sex ratios and the risk of extinction. Polyandry can rescue a population from extinction.

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hector Galbraith

Full Text Available Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90% taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reif Jiří

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

2010-03-01

Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

Deepened Extinction following Compound Stimulus Presentation: Noradrenergic Modulation

Science.gov (United States)

Janak, Patricia H.; Corbit, Laura H.

2011-01-01

Behavioral extinction is an active form of new learning involving the prediction of nonreward where reward has previously been present. The expression of extinction learning can be disrupted by the presentation of reward itself or reward-predictive stimuli (reinstatement) as well as the passage of time (spontaneous recovery) or contextual changes…

Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier López-Upton

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Matt

2009-03-31

Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates-fishes-remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims.

A model for evolution and extinction

OpenAIRE

Roberts, Bruce W.; Newman, M. E. J.

1995-01-01

We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossi...

Psychological and neural mechanisms of experimental extinction: a selective review.

Science.gov (United States)

Delamater, Andrew R; Westbrook, R Frederick

2014-02-01

The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuussaari, Mikko; Bommarco, Riccardo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Helm, Aveliina; Krauss, Jochen; Lindborg, Regina; Ockinger, Erik; Pärtel, Meelis; Pino, Joan; Rodà, Ferran; Stefanescu, Constantí; Teder, Tiit; Zobel, Martin; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

2009-10-01

Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt. However, as long as a species that is predicted to become extinct still persists, there is time for conservation measures such as habitat restoration and landscape management. Standardized long-term monitoring, more high-quality empirical studies on different taxa and ecosystems and further development of analytical methods will help to better quantify extinction debt and protect biodiversity.

Unbounded autocatalytic growth on diffusive substrate: The extinction transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moalem, Sasi; Shnerb, Nadav M.

2007-01-01

The effect of diffusively correlated spatial fluctuations on the proliferation-extinction transition of autocatalytic agents is investigated numerically. Reactants adaptation to spatio-temporal active regions is shown to lead to proliferation even if the mean field rate equations predict extinction, in agreement with previous theoretical predictions. While in the proliferation phase the system admits a typical time scale that dictates the exponential growth, the extinction times distribution obeys a power law at the parameter region considered

Predicting overfishing and extinction threats in multispecies fisheries.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Matthew G; Polasky, Stephen; Tilman, David

2013-10-01

Threats to species from commercial fishing are rarely identified until species have suffered large population declines, by which time remedial actions can have severe economic consequences, such as closure of fisheries. Many of the species most threatened by fishing are caught in multispecies fisheries, which can remain profitable even as populations of some species collapse. Here we show for multispecies fisheries that the biological and socioeconomic conditions that would eventually cause species to be severely depleted or even driven extinct can be identified decades before those species experience high harvest rates or marked population declines. Because fishing effort imposes a common source of mortality on all species in a fishery, the long-term impact of a fishery on a species is predicted by measuring its loss rate relative to that of species that influence the fishery's maximal effort. We tested our approach on eight Pacific tuna and billfish populations, four of which have been identified recently as in decline and threatened with overfishing. The severe depletion of all four populations could have been predicted in the 1950s, using our approach. Our results demonstrate that species threatened by human harvesting can be identified much earlier, providing time for adjustments in harvesting practices before consequences become severe and fishery closures or other socioeconomically disruptive interventions are required to protect species.

Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

1986-01-01

Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters

Potential suitable areas of giant ground sloths dropped before its extinction in South America

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Varela, Sara; Nogues, David Bravo

2012-01-01

of the climate preferences through time for the two species and modeled their potential distributions at last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ky BP) and mid-Holocene (6 ky BP) using Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling (BEM), fossil records and paleoclimatic simulations. The model predictions showed a drastic reduction......Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability...

The extinction of the West African lion: whose responsibility?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nollkaemper, A.

2014-01-01

A recently published study showed that the lion in West Africa is now critically endangered and faces extinction. From one angle, this would be just one of the large (though unknown) number of species that has previously faced extinction or has even become extinct. But the risk of extinction of some

d-Cycloserine reduces context specificity of sexual extinction learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Trimbos, Baptist; Both, Stephanie

2015-11-01

d-Cycloserine (DCS) enhances extinction processes in animals. Although classical conditioning is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in the aetiology of appetitive motivation problems, no research has been conducted on the effect of DCS on the reduction of context specificity of extinction in human appetitive learning, while facilitation hereof is relevant in the context of treatment of problematic reward-seeking behaviors. Female participants were presented with two conditioned stimuli (CSs) that either predicted (CS+) or did not predict (CS-) a potential sexual reward (unconditioned stimulus (US); genital vibrostimulation). Conditioning took place in context A and extinction in context B. Subjects received DCS (125mg) or placebo directly after the experiment on day 1 in a randomized, double-blind, between-subject fashion (Placebo n=31; DCS n=31). Subsequent testing for CS-evoked conditioned responses (CRs) in both the conditioning (A) and the extinction context (B) took place 24h later on day 2. Drug effects on consolidation were then assessed by comparing the recall of sexual extinction memories between the DCS and the placebo groups. Post learning administration of DCS facilitates sexual extinction memory consolidation and affects extinction's fundamental context specificity, evidenced by reduced conditioned genital and subjective sexual responses, relative to placebo, for presentations of the reward predicting cue 24h later outside the extinction context. DCS makes appetitive extinction memories context-independent and prevents the return of conditioned response. NMDA receptor glycine site agonists may be potential pharmacotherapies for the prevention of relapse of appetitive motivation disorders with a learned component. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Owen T

2006-01-29

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation

OpenAIRE

Malarz, K.

2006-01-01

The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Malarz, Krzysztof

2007-04-01

The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2011-01-01

Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

OpenAIRE

Pan, Xubin

2017-01-01

There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

2010-04-08

Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beth A Polidoro

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi).

Science.gov (United States)

Earnhardt, Joanne M; Thompson, Steven D; Faust, Lisa J

2009-05-01

The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.

Localized extinction of an arboreal desert lizard caused by habitat fragmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Rodriguez-Estrella, Ricardo; Shaw, William W.; Culver, Melanie

2013-01-01

We adopted a species’ perspective for predicting extinction risk in a small, endemic, and strictly scansorial lizard (Urosaurus nigricaudus), in an old (∼60 year) and highly fragmented (8% habitat remaining) agricultural landscape from the Sonoran Desert, Mexico. We genotyped 10 microsatellite loci in 280 individuals from 11 populations in fragmented and continuous habitat. Individual dispersal was restricted to less than 400 m, according to analyses of spatial autocorrelation and spatially explicit Bayesian assignment methods. Within this scale, continuous areas and narrow washes with native vegetation allowed high levels of gene flow over tens of kilometers. In the absence of the native vegetation, cleared areas and highways were identified as partial barriers. In contrast, outside the scale of dispersal, cleared areas behaved as complete barriers, and surveys corroborated the species went extinct after a few decades in all small (less than 45 ha), isolated habitat fragments. No evidence for significant loss of genetic diversity was found, but results suggested fragmentation increased the spatial scale of movements, relatedness, genetic structure, and potentially affected sex-biased dispersal. A plausible threshold of individual dispersal predicted only 23% of all fragments in the landscape were linked with migration from continuous habitat, while complete barriers isolated the majority of fragments. Our study suggested limited dispersal, coupled with an inability to use a homogeneous and hostile matrix without vegetation and shade, could result in frequent time-delayed extinctions of small ectotherms in highly fragmented desert landscapes, particularly considering an increase in the risk of overheating and a decrease in dispersal potential induced by global warming.

Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

Science.gov (United States)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

2018-02-01

We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

2017-06-01

Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

Temporal factors in the extinction of fear in inbred mouse strains differing in extinction efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

MacPherson, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Camp, Marguerite; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

2013-07-05

Various neuropsychiatric conditions, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are characterized by deficient fear extinction, but individuals differ greatly in risk for these. While there is growing evidence that fear extinction is influenced by certain procedural variables, it is unclear how these influences might vary across individuals and subpopulations. To model individual differences in fear extinction, prior studies identified a strain of inbred mouse, 129S1/SvImJ (S1), which exhibits a profound deficit in fear extinction, as compared to other inbred strains, such as C57BL/6J (B6). Here, we assessed the effects of procedural variables on the impaired extinction phenotype of the S1 strain and, by comparison, the extinction-intact B6 strain. The variables studied were 1) the interval between conditioning and extinction, 2) the interval between cues during extinction training, 3) single-cue exposure before extinction training, and 4) extinction of a second-order conditioned cue. Conducting extinction training soon after ('immediately') conditioning attenuated fear retrieval in S1 mice and impaired extinction in B6 mice. Spacing cue presentations with long inter-trial intervals during extinction training augmented fear in S1 and B6 mice. The effect of spacing was lost with one-trial fear conditioning in B6, but not S1 mice. A single exposure to a conditioned cue before extinction training did not alter extinction retrieval, either in B6 or S1 mice. Both the S1 and B6 strains exhibited robust second-order fear conditioning, in which a cue associated with footshock was sufficient to serve as a conditioned exciter to condition a fear association to a second cue. B6 mice extinguished the fear response to the second-order conditioned cue, but S1 mice failed to do so. These data provide further evidence that fear extinction is strongly influenced by multiple procedural variables and is so in a highly strain-dependent manner. This suggests that the efficacy of

Predicting impaired extinction of traumatic memory and elevated startle.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Nalloor

Full Text Available Emotionally traumatic experiences can lead to debilitating anxiety disorders, such as phobias and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD. Exposure to such experiences, however, is not sufficient to induce pathology, as only up to one quarter of people exposed to such events develop PTSD. These statistics, combined with findings that smaller hippocampal size prior to the trauma is associated with higher risk of developing PTSD, suggest that there are pre-disposing factors for such pathology. Because prospective studies in humans are limited and costly, investigating such pre-dispositions, and thus advancing understanding of the genesis of such pathologies, requires the use of animal models where predispositions are identified before the emotional trauma. Most existing animal models are retrospective: they classify subjects as those with or without a PTSD-like phenotype long after experiencing a traumatic event. Attempts to create prospective animal models have been largely unsuccessful.Here we report that individual predispositions to a PTSD-like phenotype, consisting of impaired rate and magnitude of extinction of an emotionally traumatic event coupled with long-lasting elevation of acoustic startle responses, can be revealed following exposure to a mild stressor, but before experiencing emotional trauma. We compare, in rats, the utility of several classification criteria and report that a combination of criteria based on acoustic startle responses and behavior in an anxiogenic environment is a reliable predictor of a PTSD-like phenotype.There are individual predispositions to developing impaired extinction and elevated acoustic startle that can be identified after exposure to a mildly stressful event, which by itself does not induce such a behavioral phenotype. The model presented here is a valuable tool for studying the etiology and pathophysiology of anxiety disorders and provides a platform for testing behavioral and pharmacological

No impact of repeated extinction exposures on operant responding maintained by different reinforcer rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, John Y H; Podlesnik, Christopher A

2017-05-01

Greater rates of intermittent reinforcement in the presence of discriminative stimuli generally produce greater resistance to extinction, consistent with predictions of behavioral momentum theory. Other studies reveal more rapid extinction with higher rates of reinforcers - the partial reinforcement extinction effect. Further, repeated extinction often produces more rapid decreases in operant responding due to learning a discrimination between training and extinction contingencies. The present study examined extinction repeatedly with training with different rates of intermittent reinforcement in a multiple schedule. We assessed whether repeated extinction would reverse the pattern of greater resistance to extinction with greater reinforcer rates. Counter to this prediction, resistance to extinction was consistently greater across twelve assessments of training followed by six successive sessions of extinction. Moreover, patterns of responding during extinction resembled those observed during satiation tests, which should not alter discrimination processes with repeated testing. These findings join others suggesting operant responding in extinction can be durable across repeated tests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct numerical simulations of non-premixed ethylene-air flames: Local flame extinction criterion

KAUST Repository

Lecoustre, Vivien R.

2014-11-01

Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) of ethylene/air diffusion flame extinctions in decaying two-dimensional turbulence were performed. A Damköhler-number-based flame extinction criterion as provided by classical large activation energy asymptotic (AEA) theory is assessed for its validity in predicting flame extinction and compared to one based on Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (CEMA) of the detailed chemistry. The DNS code solves compressible flow conservation equations using high order finite difference and explicit time integration schemes. The ethylene/air chemistry is simulated with a reduced mechanism that is generated based on the directed relation graph (DRG) based methods along with stiffness removal. The numerical configuration is an ethylene fuel strip embedded in ambient air and exposed to a prescribed decaying turbulent flow field. The emphasis of this study is on the several flame extinction events observed in contrived parametric simulations. A modified viscosity and changing pressure (MVCP) scheme was adopted in order to artificially manipulate the probability of flame extinction. Using MVCP, pressure was changed from the baseline case of 1 atm to 0.1 and 10 atm. In the high pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame is extinction-free, whereas in the low pressure MVCP case, the simulated flame features frequent extinction events and is close to global extinction. Results show that, despite its relative simplicity and provided that the global flame activation temperature is correctly calibrated, the AEA-based flame extinction criterion can accurately predict the simulated flame extinction events. It is also found that the AEA-based criterion provides predictions of flame extinction that are consistent with those provided by a CEMA-based criterion. This study supports the validity of a simple Damköhler-number-based criterion to predict flame extinction in engineering-level CFD models. © 2014 The Combustion Institute.

Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard K B Jenkins

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in

Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Richard K B; Tognelli, Marcelo F; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H; Randrianirina, Jasmin E; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M; Raxworthy, Christopher J; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P; Yoder, Anne D; Vences, Miguel

2014-01-01

An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and western regions of Madagascar and this study highlights the importance of

Extinction Risks and the Conservation of Madagascar's Reptiles

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Richard K. B.; Tognelli, Marcelo F.; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L.; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R.; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D.; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F.; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H.; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A.; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J. Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H.; Randrianirina, Jasmin E.; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P.; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P.; Yoder, Anne D.; Vences, Miguel

2014-01-01

Background An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Methodology/Principal Findings Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. Conclusions/Significance With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and

Theory of invasion extinction dynamics in minimal food webs

Science.gov (United States)

Haerter, Jan O.; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim

2018-02-01

When food webs are exposed to species invasion, secondary extinction cascades may be set off. Although much work has gone into characterizing the structure of food webs, systematic predictions on their evolutionary dynamics are still scarce. Here we present a theoretical framework that predicts extinctions in terms of an alternating sequence of two basic processes: resource depletion by or competitive exclusion between consumers. We first propose a conceptual invasion extinction model (IEM) involving random fitness coefficients. We bolster this IEM by an analytical, recursive procedure for calculating idealized extinction cascades after any species addition and simulate the long-time evolution. Our procedure describes minimal food webs where each species interacts with only a single resource through the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. For such food webs ex- tinction cascades are determined uniquely and the system always relaxes to a stable steady state. The dynamics and scale invariant species life time resemble the behavior of the IEM, and correctly predict an upper limit for trophic levels as observed in the field.

Reintroducing resurrected species: selecting DeExtinction candidates.

Science.gov (United States)

Seddon, Philip J; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Ewen, John

2014-03-01

Technological advances have raised the controversial prospect of resurrecting extinct species. Species DeExtinction should involve more than the production of biological orphans to be scrutinized in the laboratory or zoo. If DeExtinction is to realize its stated goals of deep ecological enrichment, then resurrected animals must be translocated (i.e., released within suitable habitat). Therefore, DeExtinction is a conservation translocation issue and the selection of potential DeExtinction candidates must consider the feasibility and risks associated with reintroduction. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Guidelines on Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations provide a framework for DeExtinction candidate selection. We translate these Guidelines into ten questions to be addressed early on in the selection process to eliminate unsuitable reintroduction candidates. We apply these questions to the thylacine, Yangtze River Dolphin, and Xerces blue butterfly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does fear extinction in the laboratory predict outcomes of exposure therapy? A treatment analog study.

Science.gov (United States)

Forcadell, Eduard; Torrents-Rodas, David; Vervliet, Bram; Leiva, David; Tortella-Feliu, Miquel; Fullana, Miquel A

2017-11-01

Fear extinction models have a key role in our understanding of anxiety disorders and their treatment with exposure therapy. Here, we tested whether individual differences in fear extinction learning and fear extinction recall in the laboratory were associated with the outcomes of an exposure therapy analog (ETA). Fifty adults with fear of spiders participated in a two-day fear-learning paradigm assessing fear extinction learning and fear extinction recall, and then underwent a brief ETA. Correlational analyses indicated that enhanced extinction learning was associated with better ETA outcome. Our results partially support the idea that individual differences in fear extinction learning may be associated with exposure therapy outcome, but suggest that further research in this area is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to detect and visualize extinction thresholds for structured PVA models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hildenbrandt, H.; Grimm, V.

2006-01-01

An extinction threshold is a population size below which extinction risk increases to beyond critical values. However, detecting extinction thresholds for structured population models is not straightforward because many different population structures may correspond to the same population size.

Alterations in neuronal morphology in infralimbic cortex predict resistance to fear extinction following acute stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly M. Moench

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Dysfunction in corticolimbic circuits that mediate the extinction of learned fear responses is thought to underlie the perseveration of fear in stress-related psychopathologies, including post-traumatic stress disorder. Chronic stress produces dendritic hypertrophy in basolateral amygdala (BLA and dendritic hypotrophy in medial prefrontal cortex, whereas acute stress leads to hypotrophy in both BLA and prelimbic cortex. Additionally, both chronic and acute stress impair extinction retrieval. Here, we examined the effects of a single elevated platform stress on extinction learning and dendritic morphology in infralimbic cortex, a region considered to be critical for extinction. Acute stress produced resistance to extinction, as well as dendritic retraction in infralimbic cortex. Spine density on apical and basilar terminal branches was unaffected by stress. However, animals that underwent conditioning and extinction had decreased spine density on apical terminal branches. Thus, whereas dendritic morphology in infralimbic cortex appears to be particularly sensitive to stress, changes in spines may more sensitively reflect learning. Further, in stressed rats that underwent conditioning and extinction, the level of extinction learning was correlated with spine densities, in that rats with poorer extinction retrieval had more immature spines and fewer thin spines than rats with better extinction retrieval, suggesting that stress may have impaired learning-related spine plasticity. These results may have implications for understanding the role of medial prefrontal cortex in learning deficits associated with stress-related pathologies.

Cued Reacquisition Trials during Extinction Weaken Contextual Renewal in Human Predictive Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Effting, Marieke; Vervliet, Bram; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel

2013-01-01

Extinction is generally more context specific than acquisition, as illustrated by the renewal effect. While most strategies to counteract renewal focus on decreasing the context specificity of extinction, the present work aimed at increasing the context specificity of acquisition learning. Two experiments examined whether presenting cued…

The path to host extinction can lead to loss of generalist parasites.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, Maxwell J; Stephens, Patrick R; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Gittleman, John L; Davies, T Jonathan

2015-07-01

Host extinction can alter disease transmission dynamics, influence parasite extinction and ultimately change the nature of host-parasite systems. While theory predicts that single-host parasites are among the parasite species most susceptible to extinction following declines in their hosts, documented parasite extinctions are rare. Using a comparative approach, we investigate how the richness of single-host and multi-host parasites is influenced by extinction risk among ungulate and carnivore hosts. Host-parasite associations for free-living carnivores (order Carnivora) and terrestrial ungulates (orders Perissodactyla + Cetartiodactyla minus cetaceans) were merged with host trait data and IUCN Red List status to explore the distribution of single-host and multi-host parasites among threatened and non-threatened hosts. We find that threatened ungulates harbour a higher proportion of single-host parasites compared to non-threatened ungulates, which is explained by decreases in the richness of multi-host parasites. However, among carnivores threat status is not a significant predictor of the proportion of single-host parasites, or the richness of single-host or multi-host parasites. The loss of multi-host parasites from threatened ungulates may be explained by decreased cross-species contact as hosts decline and habitats become fragmented. Among carnivores, threat status may not be important in predicting patterns of parasite specificity because host decline results in equal losses of both single-host parasites and multi-host parasites through reduction in average population density and frequency of cross-species contact. Our results contrast with current models of parasite coextinction and highlight the need for updated theories that are applicable across host groups and account for both inter- and intraspecific contact. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Variations in ultraviolet extinction: effect of polarization revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenberg, J.M.; Chlewicki, G.; Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

1987-01-01

The alignment of the particles responsible for the polarization and visual extinction is shown to provide a basis for changing the saturation level of the ultraviolet extinction without changing the particle sizes. If the particles are well aligned, it is predicted that there should be significantly lower extinction in the ultraviolet relative to the visible for stars viewed perpendicular to magnetic-field lines (maximum polarization) as compared with those viewed across the field lines. Preliminary evidence for such an effect is noted in Carina. (author)

Ultraviolet extinction properties of grains in the interstellar medium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seab, C.G.

1982-01-01

The IUE satellite has been used to derive UV extinction curves for 58 stars, ranging in spectral type from 06 the A5, and with E(B-V) reddenings from 0.09 to 1.59 mag. The average reddening is 0.63 mag. Anomalous extinction curves were particularly sought in the project. The most striking discovery was the near absence of the 2175 Angstrom extinction feature from the line of sight towards HD 29647 in the Taurus dark cloud. The collection of data has been analyzed in several ways. Patterns are sought in the collection as a whole, in homogeneous subsets of the data, and in relation to diffuse band strengths. Apart from some well-known correlations, only a few weak relationships are found, including a quasi-relationship between the 2175 Angstrom bump and the 4430 Angstrom diffuse band that persists after the basic E(B-V) dependencies have been removed. A search for diffuse bands in the UV was done by stacking 48 of the extinction curves to reduce the noise. The stacked curve showed no evidence of new diffuse bands. To help interpret the anomalous extinction curves, a theoretical simulation of grain processing in interstellar shocks was undertaken. Shock processing was found to cause strong 2175 angstorm bumps and high far UV extinction. Comparison to extinction curves associated with supernova remnants confirms the predictions of strong 2175 Angstrom bumps, and partially confirms the prediction of high far UV extinction. The implications of all of these results are considered for the two most prominent grain models

Context-dependent human extinction memory is mediated by a ventromedial prefrontal and hippocampal network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalisch, Raffael; Korenfeld, Elian; Stephan, Klaas E; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Seymour, Ben; Dolan, Raymond J

2006-09-13

In fear extinction, an animal learns that a conditioned stimulus (CS) no longer predicts a noxious stimulus [unconditioned stimulus (UCS)] to which it had previously been associated, leading to inhibition of the conditioned response (CR). Extinction creates a new CS-noUCS memory trace, competing with the initial fear (CS-UCS) memory. Recall of extinction memory and, hence, CR inhibition at later CS encounters is facilitated by contextual stimuli present during extinction training. In line with theoretical predictions derived from animal studies, we show that, after extinction, a CS-evoked engagement of human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and hippocampus is context dependent, being expressed in an extinction, but not a conditioning, context. Likewise, a positive correlation between VMPFC and hippocampal activity is extinction context dependent. Thus, a VMPFC-hippocampal network provides for context-dependent recall of human extinction memory, consistent with a view that hippocampus confers context dependence on VMPFC.

How does climate change cause extinction?

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Trophic redundancy reduces vulnerability to extinction cascades.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Dirk; Thébault, Elisa; Kehoe, Rachel; Frank van Veen, F J

2018-03-06

Current species extinction rates are at unprecedentedly high levels. While human activities can be the direct cause of some extinctions, it is becoming increasingly clear that species extinctions themselves can be the cause of further extinctions, since species affect each other through the network of ecological interactions among them. There is concern that the simplification of ecosystems, due to the loss of species and ecological interactions, increases their vulnerability to such secondary extinctions. It is predicted that more complex food webs will be less vulnerable to secondary extinctions due to greater trophic redundancy that can buffer against the effects of species loss. Here, we demonstrate in a field experiment with replicated plant-insect communities, that the probability of secondary extinctions is indeed smaller in food webs that include trophic redundancy. Harvesting one species of parasitoid wasp led to secondary extinctions of other, indirectly linked, species at the same trophic level. This effect was markedly stronger in simple communities than for the same species within a more complex food web. We show that this is due to functional redundancy in the more complex food webs and confirm this mechanism with a food web simulation model by highlighting the importance of the presence and strength of trophic links providing redundancy to those links that were lost. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity loss, leading to a reduction in redundant interactions, can increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary extinctions, which, when they occur, can then lead to further simplification and run-away extinction cascades. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Chapter 4. Susceptibility of sharks, rays and chimaeras to global extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Iain C; Meekan, Mark G; Buckworth, Rik C; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2009-01-01

Marine biodiversity worldwide is under increasing threat, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution and climate change. Chondrichthyan fishes (sharks, rays and chimaeras) have a perceived higher intrinsic risk of extinction compared to other fish. Direct fishing mortality has driven many declines, even though some smaller fisheries persist without associated declines. Mixed-species fisheries are of particular concern, as is illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. The lack of specific management and reporting mechanisms for the latter means that many chondrichthyans might already be susceptible to extinction from stochastic processes entirely unrelated to fishing pressure itself. Chondrichthyans might also suffer relatively more than other marine taxa from the effects of fishing and habitat loss and degradation given coastal habitat use for specific life stages. The effects of invasive species and pollution are as yet too poorly understood to predict their long-term role in affecting chondrichthyan population sizes. The spatial distribution of threatened chondrichthyan species under World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List criteria are clustered mainly in (1) south-eastern South America; (2) western Europe and the Mediterranean; (3) western Africa; (4) South China Sea and Southeast Asia and (5) south-eastern Australia. To determine which ecological and life history traits predispose chondrichthyans to being IUCN Red-Listed, and to examine the role of particular human activities in exacerbating threat risk, we correlated extant marine species' Red List categorisation with available ecological (habitat type, temperature preference), life history (body length, range size) and human-relationship (whether commercially or game-fished, considered dangerous to humans) variables. Threat risk correlations were constructed using generalised linear mixed-effect models to account for phylogenetic relatedness. We also contrasted results for chondrichthyans to

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel A Belben

Full Text Available Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those 'natural experiments' may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus. Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes.

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks.

Science.gov (United States)

Belben, Rachel A; Underwood, Charlie J; Johanson, Zerina; Twitchett, Richard J

2017-01-01

Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those 'natural experiments' may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus). Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes.

Geographies of Conservation I: De-extinction and Precision Conservation

OpenAIRE

Adams, William Mark

2016-01-01

Extinction has long been a central concern in biodiversity conservation. Today, de-extinction offers interesting possibilities of restoring charismatic species and ecosystem function, but also risks and costs. Most de-extinction depends on genetic engineering and synthetic biology. These technologies are also proposed for use in ‘gene tweaking’ in wild species to enhance their chance of survival. Within conservation, the resulting debates pit an optimistic world of high-tech ‘precision con...

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

Science.gov (United States)

Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

2017-01-01

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

Living on the edge: assessing the extinction risk of critically endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pascual López-López

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity, and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population's fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli's eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate λ>1. In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

The effects of compound stimulus extinction and inhibition of noradrenaline reuptake on the renewal of alcohol seeking

Science.gov (United States)

Furlong, T M; Pan, M J; Corbit, L H

2015-01-01

Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli can reduce their impact on relapse; however, the expression of extinction can be disrupted when testing occurs outside the context where extinction learning took place, an effect termed renewal. Behavioral and pharmacological methods have recently been shown to augment extinction learning; yet, it is not known whether the improved expression of extinction following these treatments remains context-dependent. Here we examined whether two methods, compound–stimulus extinction and treatment with the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine, would reduce the vulnerability of extinction to a change in context. Following alcohol self-administration, responding was extinguished in a distinct context. After initial extinction, further extinction was given to a target stimulus presented in compound with another alcohol-predictive stimulus intended to augment prediction error (Experiment 1) or after a systemic injection of atomoxetine (1.0 mg kg−1; Experiment 2). A stimulus extinguished as part of a compound elicited less responding than a stimulus receiving equal extinction alone regardless of whether animals were tested in the training or extinction context; however, reliable renewal was not observed in this paradigm. Importantly, atomoxetine enhanced extinction relative to controls even in the presence of a reliable renewal effect. Thus, extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior can be improved by extinguishing multiple alcohol-predictive stimuli or enhancing noradrenaline neurotransmission during extinction training. Importantly, both methods improve extinction even when the context is changed between extinction training and test, and thus could be utilized to enhance the outcome of extinction-based treatments for alcohol-use disorders. PMID:26327688

Experimental study of transient paths to the extinction in sonoluminescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Urteaga, Raúl; Dellavale, Damián; Puente, Gabriela F; Bonetto, Fabián J

2008-09-01

An experimental study of the extinction threshold of single bubble sonoluminescence in an air-water system is presented. Different runs from 5% to 100% of air concentrations were performed at room pressure and temperature. The intensity of sonoluminescence (SL) and time of collapse (t(c)) with respect to the driving were measured while the acoustic pressure was linearly increased from the onset of SL until the bubble extinction. The experimental data were compared with theoretical predictions for shape and position instability thresholds. It was found that the extinction of the bubble is determined by different mechanisms depending on the air concentration. For concentrations greater than approximately 30%-40% with respect to the saturation, the parametric instability limits the maximum value of R(0) that can be reached. On the other hand, for lower concentrations, the extinction appears as a limitation in the time of collapse. Two different mechanisms emerge in this range, i.e., the Bjerknes force and the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The bubble acoustic emission produces backreaction on the bubble itself. This effect occurs in both mechanisms and is essential for the correct prediction of the extinction threshold in the case of low air dissolved concentration.

Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

2016-09-16

To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Turvey, Samuel T; Fritz, Susanne A

2011-09-12

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

Selection, subdivision and extinction and recolonization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, Joshua L

2004-02-01

In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

The Effect of the Extinction Procedure in Function-Based Intervention

Science.gov (United States)

Janney, Donna M.; Umbreit, John; Ferro, Jolenea B.; Liaupsin, Carl J.; Lane, Kathleen L.

2013-01-01

In this study, we examined the contribution of the extinction procedure in function-based interventions implemented in the general education classrooms of three at-risk elementary-aged students. Function-based interventions included antecedent adjustments, reinforcement procedures, and function-matched extinction procedures. Using a combined ABC…

Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

2015-02-01

BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction Generates Outcome-Specific Conditioned Inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Laurent, Vincent; Chieng, Billy; Balleine, Bernard W

2016-12-05

Extinction involves altering a previously established predictive relationship between a cue and its outcome by repeatedly presenting that cue alone. Although it is widely accepted that extinction generates some form of inhibitory learning [1-4], direct evidence for this claim has been lacking, and the nature of the associative changes induced by extinction have, therefore, remained a matter of debate [5-8]. In the current experiments, we used a novel behavioral approach that we recently developed and that provides a direct measure of conditioned inhibition [9] to compare the influence of extinguished and non-extinguished cues on choice between goal-directed actions. Using this approach, we provide direct evidence that extinction generates outcome-specific conditioned inhibition. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this inhibitory learning is controlled by the infralimbic cortex (IL); inactivation of the IL using M4 DREADDs abolished outcome-specific inhibition and rendered the cue excitatory. Importantly, we found that context modulated this inhibition. Outside its extinction context, the cue was excitatory and functioned as a specific predictor of its previously associated outcome, biasing choice toward actions earning the same outcome. In its extinction context, however, the cue acted as a specific inhibitor and biased choice toward actions earning different outcomes. Context modulation of these excitatory and inhibitory memories was mediated by the dorsal hippocampus (HPC), suggesting that the HPC and IL act in concert to control the influence of conditioned inhibitors on choice. These findings demonstrate for the first time that extinction turns a cue into a net inhibitor that can influence choice via counterfactual action-outcome associations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, P.zza Parlamento 1, I-90134 Palermo (Italy); Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Via della Scienza, I-09047 Selargius (Italy); Zonca, Alberto, E-mail: cecchi-pestellini@astropa.unipa.it, E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it, E-mail: gmulas@oa-cagliari.inaf.it, E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Cagliari, Strada Prov.le Monserrato-Sestu Km 0.700, I-09042 Monserrato (Italy)

2014-04-10

Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds. Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.

Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

2015-07-01

Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping

Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

2013-01-01

Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

A new explanation of the extinction paradox

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berg, M.J.; Sorensen, C.M.; Chakrabarti, A.

2011-01-01

This work presents a new explanation for the extinction paradox and shows that the canonical explanations are incorrect. This paradox refers to the large size limit of a particle's extinction cross section. It is called a paradox because the geometrical optics approximation, which should be valid in this limit, predicts a cross section that is half of the true value. The new explanation is achieved by formulating the scattered wave in terms of an integral over the particle's surface where the seemingly unrelated Ewald-Oseen theorem appears in the formulation. By expressing the cross section in terms of this surface integral, the Ewald-Oseen theorem is analytically connected to the cross section. Several illustrations are used to reveal the significance of this connection: The paradox is seen to be a consequence of the requirement that the incident wave be canceled within the particle by secondary radiation from its own internal field. Following this, the canonical explanations are examined to reveal serious problems. In the process, the same asymptotic extinction behavior is shown to occur for small highly refractive dielectric particles, and thus is not just a large particle size or small wavelength effect as is often stated. The traditional explanations cannot account for this behavior while the new one actually predicts it. All in all, this work constitutes a fundamental reworking of 60 years of accepted understanding for the cause of the asymptotic behavior of the extinction cross section.

Fear acquisition and extinction in offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Allison M; Peters, Rosie-Mae; Forrest, Kylee E; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie

2014-01-01

Maternal anxiety and depression are significant risk factors for the development of these disorders in offspring. The pathways through which risk is conferred remain unclear. This study examined fear acquisition and extinction in 26 children at high risk for emotional disorders by virtue of maternal psychopathology (n=14 with a mother with a principal anxiety disorder and n=12 with a mother with a principal unipolar depressive disorder) and 31 low risk controls using a discriminative Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Participants, aged between 7 and 14 years, completed 16 trials of discriminative conditioning of two geometric figures, with (CS+) and without (CS-) an aversive tone (US), followed by 8 extinction trials (4×CS+, 4×CS-). In the context of comparable discriminative conditioning, children of anxious mothers showed larger skin conductance responses during extinction to the CS+ compared to the CS-, and to both CSs from the first to the second block of extinction trials, in comparison with low risk controls. Compared to low risk controls, children of depressed mothers showed smaller skin conductance responses to the CS+ than the CS- during acquisition. These findings suggest distinct psychophysiological premorbid risk markers in offspring of anxious and depressed mothers. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Progress to extinction: increased specialisation causes the demise of animal clades.

Science.gov (United States)

Raia, P; Carotenuto, F; Mondanaro, A; Castiglione, S; Passaro, F; Saggese, F; Melchionna, M; Serio, C; Alessio, L; Silvestro, D; Fortelius, M

2016-08-10

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Progress to extinction: increased specialisation causes the demise of animal clades

Science.gov (United States)

Raia, P.; Carotenuto, F.; Mondanaro, A.; Castiglione, S.; Passaro, F.; Saggese, F.; Melchionna, M.; Serio, C.; Alessio, L.; Silvestro, D.; Fortelius, M.

2016-08-01

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Rethinking Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior, and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

Seasonal atmospheric extinction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikhail, J.S.

1979-01-01

Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

Pre-trauma individual differences in extinction learning predict posttraumatic stress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lommen, M.J.J.; Engelhard, I.M.; Sijbrandij, M.; van Hout, M.A.; Hermans, D.

2013-01-01

In the aftermath of a traumatic event, many people suffer from psychological distress, but only a minority develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pre-trauma individual differences in fear conditioning, most notably reduced extinction learning, have been proposed as playing an important role

Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

2016-04-01

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Effect of Size and Ecology on Extinction Susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Huynh, C.; Yuan, A.; Heim, N.; Payne, J.

2015-12-01

Although life on Earth first emerged as prokaryotic organisms, it eventually evolved into billions of different species. However, extinctions on Earth, especially the five mass extinctions, have decimated species. So what leads to a species survival or demise during a mass extinction? Are certain species more susceptible to extinctions based on their size and ecology? For this project, we focused on the data of marine animals. To examine the impact of size and ecology on a species's likelihood of survival, we compared the sizes and ecologies of the survivors and victims of the five mass extinctions. The ecology, or life mode, of a genus consists of the combination of tiering, motility, and feeding mechanism. Tiering refers to the animal's typical location in the water column and sediments, motility refers to its ability to move, and feeding mechanism describes the way the organism eats; together, they describe the animal's behavior. We analyzed the effect of ecology on survival using logistic regression, which compares life mode to the success or failure of a genus during each mass extinction interval. For organism size, we found the extinct organisms' mean size (both volume and length) and compared it with the average size of survivors on a graph. Our results show that while surviving genera of mass extinctions tended to be slightly larger than those that went extinct, there was no significant difference. Even though the Permian (Changhsingian) and Triassic (Rhaetian) extinctions had larger surviving species, likewise the difference was small. Ecology had a more obvious impact on the likelihood of survival; fast-moving, predatory pelagic organisms were the most likely to go extinct, while sedentary, infaunal suspension feeders had the greatest chances of survival. Overall, ecology played a greater role than size in determining the survival of a species. With this information, we can use ecology to predict which species would survive future extinctions.

Context-Dependent Human Extinction Memory Is Mediated by a Ventromedial Prefrontal and Hippocampal Network

OpenAIRE

Kalisch, Raffael; Korenfeld, Elian; Stephan, Klaas E.; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Seymour, Ben; Dolan, Raymond J.

2006-01-01

In fear extinction, an animal learns that a conditioned stimulus (CS) no longer predicts a noxious stimulus [unconditioned stimulus (UCS)] to which it had previously been associated, leading to inhibition of the conditioned response (CR). Extinction creates a new CS-noUCS memory trace, competing with the initial fear (CS-UCS) memory. Recall of extinction memory and, hence, CR inhibition at later CS encounters is facilitated by contextual stimuli present during extinction training. In line wit...

Extinction of Pavlovian conditioning: The influence of trial number and reinforcement history.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, C K J; Harris, Justin A

2017-08-01

Pavlovian conditioning is sensitive to the temporal relationship between the conditioned stimulus (CS) and the unconditioned stimulus (US). This has motivated models that describe learning as a process that continuously updates associative strength during the trial or specifically encodes the CS-US interval. These models predict that extinction of responding is also continuous, such that response loss is proportional to the cumulative duration of exposure to the CS without the US. We review evidence showing that this prediction is incorrect, and that extinction is trial-based rather than time-based. We also present two experiments that test the importance of trials versus time on the Partial Reinforcement Extinction Effect (PREE), in which responding extinguishes more slowly for a CS that was inconsistently reinforced with the US than for a consistently reinforced one. We show that increasing the number of extinction trials of the partially reinforced CS, relative to the consistently reinforced CS, overcomes the PREE. However, increasing the duration of extinction trials by the same amount does not overcome the PREE. We conclude that animals learn about the likelihood of the US per trial during conditioning, and learn trial-by-trial about the absence of the US during extinction. Moreover, what they learn about the likelihood of the US during conditioning affects how sensitive they are to the absence of the US during extinction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time to extinction of bird populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; Møller, A.P.; Visser, M.E.; Matthysen, E.; Fiedler, W.; Lambrechts, M.M.; Becker, P.H.; Brommer, J.E.; Dickinson, J.; du Feu, C.; Gehlbach, F.R.; Merilä, J.; Rendell, W.; Robertson, R.J.; Thomson, D.L.; Török, J.

2005-01-01

The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the

How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bull, Joseph William; Maron, M.

2016-01-01

influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature— considering phylogenetic diversity...... and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity....

Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

2013-08-01

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson

Full Text Available Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

Neutral theory as a predictor of avifaunal extinctions after habitat loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Halley, John M; Iwasa, Yoh

2011-02-08

The worldwide loss of natural habitats leads not only to the loss of habitat-endemic species but also to further and protracted extinctions in the reduced areas that remain. How rapid is this process? We use the neutral theory of biodiversity to answer this question, and we compare the results taken with observed rates of avifaunal extinctions. In the neutral model, we derive an exact solution for the rate of species loss in a closed community. The simple, closed-form solution exhibits hyperbolic decay of species richness with time, which implies a potentially rapid initial decline followed by much slower rates long term. Our empirical estimates of extinction times are based on published studies for avifaunal extinctions either on oceanic islands or in forest fragments, which span a total of six orders of magnitude in area. These estimates show that the time to extinction strongly depends on the area. The neutral-theory predictions agree well with observed rates over three orders of magnitude of area (between 100 and 100,000 ha) both for islands and forest fragments. Regarding the species abundance distribution, extinction times based on a broken-stick model led to better agreement with observation than if a log-series model was used. The predictions break down for very small or very large areas. Thus, neutrality may be an affordable assumption for some applications in ecology and conservation, particularly for areas of intermediate size.

Acute inescapable stress alleviates fear extinction recall deficits caused by serotonin transporter abolishment.

Science.gov (United States)

Schipper, Pieter; Henckens, Marloes J A G; Lopresto, Dora; Kozicz, Tamas; Homberg, Judith R

2018-07-02

Life stress increases risk for developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and more prominently so in short-allele carriers of the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Serotonin transporter knockout (5-HTT -/- ) rats show compromised extinction (recall) of conditioned fear, which might mediate the increased risk for PTSD and reduce the therapeutic efficacy of exposure therapy. Here, we assessed whether acute inescapable stress (IS) differentially affects fear extinction and extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats and wildtype controls. Surprisingly, IS experience improved fear extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats to the level of wildtype animals, while wildtypes were unaffected by this IS. Thus, whereas 5-HTT -/- rats evidently were more responsive to the stressor, the behavioral consequences presented themselves as adaptive. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fish extinctions alter nutrient recycling in tropical freshwaters.

Science.gov (United States)

McIntyre, Peter B; Jones, Laura E; Flecker, Alexander S; Vanni, Michael J

2007-03-13

There is increasing evidence that species extinctions jeopardize the functioning of ecosystems. Overfishing and other human influences are reducing the diversity and abundance of fish worldwide, but the ecosystem-level consequences of these changes have not been assessed quantitatively. Recycling of nutrients is one important ecosystem process that is directly influenced by fish. Fish species vary widely in the rates at which they excrete nitrogen and phosphorus; thus, altering fish communities could affect nutrient recycling. Here, we use extensive field data on nutrient recycling rates and population sizes of fish species in a Neotropical river and Lake Tanganyika, Africa, to evaluate the effects of simulated extinctions on nutrient recycling. In both of these species-rich ecosystems, recycling was dominated by relatively few species, but contributions of individual species differed between nitrogen and phosphorus. Alternative extinction scenarios produced widely divergent patterns. Loss of the species targeted by fishermen led to faster declines in nutrient recycling than extinctions in order of rarity, body size, or trophic position. However, when surviving species were allowed to increase after extinctions, these compensatory responses had strong moderating effects even after losing many species. Our results underscore the complexity of predicting the consequences of extinctions from species-rich animal communities. Nevertheless, the importance of exploited species in nutrient recycling suggests that overfishing could have particularly detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning.

Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

2012-01-01

Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

Rarity, species richness, and the threat of extinction--are plants the same as animals?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Knapp

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Assessment of conservation status is done both for areas or habitats and for species (or taxa. IUCN Red List categories have been the principal method of categorising species in terms of extinction risk, and have been shown to be robust and helpful in the groups for which they have been developed. A recent study highlights properties associated with extinction risk in flowering plants, focusing on the species-rich hot spot of the Cape region of South Africa, and concludes that merely following methods derived from studies of vertebrates may not provide the best estimates of extinction risk for plants. Biology, geography, and history all are important factors in risk, and the study poses many questions about how we categorise and assess species for conservation priorities.

Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherry, Joshua L

2003-01-01

In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

The centrality of fear extinction in linking risk factors to PTSD : A narrative review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zuj, Daniel V; Palmer, Matthew A; Lommen, Miriam; Felmingham, Kim L

2016-01-01

Recent prospective studies in emergency services have identified impaired fear extinction learning and memory to be a significant predictor of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), complementing a wealth of cross-sectional evidence of extinction deficits associated with the disorder. Additional

Bimodal extinction without cross-modal extinction.

OpenAIRE

Inhoff, A W; Rafal, R D; Posner, M J

1992-01-01

Three patients with unilateral neurological injury were clinically examined. All showed consistent unilateral extinction in the tactile and visual modalities on simultaneous intramodal stimulation. There was virtually no evidence for cross-modal extinction, however, so that contralateral stimulation of one modality would have extinguished perception of ipsilateral stimuli in the other modality. It is concluded that the attentional system controlling the encoding of tactile and visual stimuli ...

From lab to clinic: Extinction of cued cravings to reduce overeating.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Anita; Schyns, Ghislaine; Bongers, Peggy; van den Akker, Karolien

2016-08-01

Food cue reactivity is a strong motivation to eat, even in the absence of hunger. Therefore, food cue reactivity might sabotage healthy eating, induce weight gain and impede weight loss or weight maintenance. Food cue reactivity can be learned via Pavlovian appetitive conditioning: It is easily acquired but the extinction of appetitive responding seems to be more challenging. Several properties of extinction make it fragile: extinction does not erase the original learning and extinction is context-dependent. These properties threaten full extinction and increase the risk of full relapse. Extinction procedures are discussed to reduce or prevent the occurrence of rapid reacquisition, spontaneous recovery, renewal and reinstatement after extinction. A translation to food cue exposure treatment is made and suggestions are provided, such as conducting the exposure in relevant contexts, using occasional reinforcement and targeting expectancy violation instead of habituation. A new hypothesis proposed here is that the adding of inhibition training to strengthen inhibition skills that reduce instrumental responding, might be beneficial to improve food cue exposure effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

Science.gov (United States)

Veron, Simon; Davies, T Jonathan; Cadotte, Marc W; Clergeau, Philippe; Pavoine, Sandrine

2017-02-01

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic

Rethinking Extinction

OpenAIRE

Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavior...

Modeling galactic extinction

OpenAIRE

Cecchi-Pestellini, C.; Mulas, G.; Casu, S.; Iatì, M. A.; Saija, R.; Cacciola, A.; Borghese, F.; Denti, P.

2011-01-01

We present a model for interstellar extinction dust, in which we assume a bimodal distribution of extinction carriers, a dispersion of core-mantle grains, supplemented by a collection of PAHs in free molecular form. We use state-of-the-art methods to calculate the extinction due to macroscopic dust particles, and the absorption cross-sections of PAHs in four different charge states. While successfull for most of observed Galactic extinction curves, in few cases the model cannot provide reliab...

Impaired fear extinction learning and cortico-amygdala circuit abnormalities in a common genetic mouse strain

OpenAIRE

Hefner, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Juhasz, Jaynann; Norcross, Maxine; Karlsson, Rose-Marie; Saksida, Lisa M.; Bussey, Timothy J.; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

2008-01-01

Fear extinction is a form of new learning that results in the inhibition of conditioned fear. Trait deficits in fear extinction are a risk factor for anxiety disorders. There are few examples of naturally-occurring animal models of impaired extinction. The present study compared fear extinction in a panel of inbred mouse strains. This strain survey revealed an impairment in fear extinction in 129/SvImJ (129S1). The phenotypic specificity of this deficit was evaluated by comparing 129S1 and C5...

The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imre Pázsit

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

The effects of extinction-aroused attention on context conditioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, James Byron; Fabiano, Andrew M; Lamoureux, Jeffrey A

2018-04-01

Two experiments assessed the effects of extinguishing a conditioned cue on subsequent context conditioning. Each experiment used a different video-game method where sensors predicted attacking spaceships and participants responded to the sensor in a way that prepared them for the upcoming attack. In Experiment 1 extinction of a cue which signaled a spaceship-attack outcome facilitated subsequent learning when the attack occurred unsignaled. In Experiment 2 extinction of a cue facilitated subsequent learning, regardless of whether the spaceship outcome was the same or different as used in the earlier training. In neither experiment did the extinction context become inhibitory. Results are discussed in terms of current associative theories of attention and conditioning. © 2018 Nelson et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Light extinction and scattering from individual and arrayed high-aspect-ratio trenches in metal

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roberts, Alexander; Søndergaard, Thomas; Chirumamilla, Manohar

2016-01-01

for a two-dimensional scatterer. We construct a simple resonator model which predicts the wavelength-dependent extinction, scattering, and absorption cross section of the trench and compare the model findings with full numerical simulations. Both extinction and scattering cross sections are mainly...

Long-distance translocations to create a second millerbird population and reduce extinction risk

Science.gov (United States)

Holly Freifeld,; Sheldon Plentovich,; Chris Farmer,; Charles Kohley,; Peter Luscomb,; Work, Thierry M.; Daniel Tsukayama,; George Wallace,; Mark MacDonald,; Sheila Conant,

2016-01-01

Translocation is a conservation tool used with increasing frequency to create additional populations of threatened species. In addition to following established general guidelines for translocations, detailed planning to account for unique circumstances and intensive post-release monitoring to document outcomes and guide management are essential components of these projects. Recent translocation of the critically endangered Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) provides an example of this planning and monitoring. The Nihoa millerbird is a passerine bird endemic to Nihoa Island in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The closely related, ecologically similar Laysan millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris familiaris) went extinct on Laysan Island in the early 20th century when the island was denuded by introduced rabbits. To reduce extinction risk, we translocated 50 adult Nihoa millerbirds more than 1000 km by sea to Laysan, which has recovered substantially in the past century and has ample habitat and a rich prey-base for millerbirds. Following five years of intensive background research and planning, including development of husbandry techniques, fundraising, and regulatory compliance, translocations occurred in 2011 and 2012. Of 11 females in each cohort, 8 (2011 cohort) and 11 (2012 cohort) produced at least one brood of fledglings during their first year on Laysan. At the conclusion of monitoring in September 2014, 37 of the translocated birds were known to survive, and the population was estimated at 164 birds. The reintroduction of millerbirds to Laysan represents a milestone in the island's ongoing restoration.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jared S Laufenberg

Full Text Available Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text] was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

Science.gov (United States)

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2015-06-01

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Long-term maintenance of immediate or delayed extinction is determined by the extinction-test interval

OpenAIRE

Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

2010-01-01

Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively long extinction-test interval was used; a relatively short extinction-test interval yielded the opposite result (Experiment 2). Previous data appear co...

Selecting for extinction: nonrandom disease-associated extinction homogenizes amphibian biotas.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Kevin G; Lips, Karen R; Chase, Jonathan M

2009-10-01

Studying the patterns in which local extinctions occur is critical to understanding how extinctions affect biodiversity at local, regional and global spatial scales. To understand the importance of patterns of extinction at a regional spatial scale, we use data from extirpations associated with a widespread pathogenic agent of amphibian decline, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) as a model system. We apply novel null model analyses to these data to determine whether recent extirpations associated with Bd have resulted in selective extinction and homogenization of diverse tropical American amphibian biotas. We find that Bd-associated extinctions in this region were nonrandom and disproportionately, but not exclusively, affected low-occupancy and endemic species, resulting in homogenization of the remnant amphibian fauna. The pattern of extirpations also resulted in phylogenetic homogenization at the family level and ecological homogenization of reproductive mode and habitat association. Additionally, many more species were extirpated from the region than would be expected if extirpations occurred randomly. Our results indicate that amphibian declines in this region are an extinction filter, reducing regional amphibian biodiversity to highly similar relict assemblages and ultimately causing amplified biodiversity loss at regional and global scales.

Fear extinction causes target-specific remodeling of perisomatic inhibitory synapses

Science.gov (United States)

Trouche, Stéphanie; Sasaki, Jennifer M.; Tu, Tiffany; Reijmers, Leon G.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY A more complete understanding of how fear extinction alters neuronal activity and connectivity within fear circuits may aid in the development of strategies to treat human fear disorders. Using a c-fos based transgenic mouse, we found that contextual fear extinction silenced basal amygdala (BA) excitatory neurons that had been previously activated during fear conditioning. We hypothesized that the silencing of BA fear neurons was caused by an action of extinction on BA inhibitory synapses. In support of this hypothesis, we found extinction-induced target-specific remodeling of BA perisomatic inhibitory synapses originating from parvalbumin and cholecystokinin-positive interneurons. Interestingly, the predicted changes in the balance of perisomatic inhibition matched the silent and active states of the target BA fear neurons. These observations suggest that target-specific changes in perisomatic inhibitory synapses represent a mechanism through which experience can sculpt the activation patterns within a neural circuit. PMID:24183705

Attentional Control and Fear Extinction in Subclinical Fear: An Exploratory Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduard Forcadell

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Attentional control (AC and fear extinction learning are known to be involved in pathological anxiety. In this study we explored whether individual differences in non-emotional AC were associated with individual differences in the magnitude and gradient of fear extinction (learning and recall. In 50 individuals with fear of spiders, we collected measures of non-emotional AC by means of self-report and by assessing the functioning of the major attention networks (executive control, orienting, and alerting. The participants then underwent a paradigm assessing fear extinction learning and extinction recall. The two components of the orienting network functioning (costs and benefits were significantly associated with fear extinction gradient over and above the effects of trait anxiety. Specifically, participants with enhanced orienting costs (i.e., difficulties in disengaging attention from cues not relevant for the task showed faster extinction learning, while those with enhanced orienting benefits (i.e., attention facilitated by valid cues exhibited faster extinction recall as measured by fear-potentiated startle and Unconditioned Stimulus expectancies, respectively. Our findings suggest that, in non-emotional conditions, the orienting component of attention may be predictive of fear extinction. They also show that the use of fear extinction gradients and the exploration of individual differences in non-emotional AC (using performance-based measures of attentional network functioning can provide a better understanding of individual differences in fear learning. Our findings also may help to understand differences in exposure therapy outcomes.

Interstellar extinction correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, A.P.; Williams, D.A.; Duley, W.W.

1987-01-01

A recently proposed model for interstellar grains in which the extinction arises from small silicate cores with mantles of hydrogenated amorphous carbon (HAC or α-C:H), and large, but thinly coated, silicate grains can successfully explain many of the observed properties of interstellar dust. The small silicate cores give rise to the 2200 A extinction feature. The extinction in the visual is produced by the large silicates and the HAC mantles on the small cores, whilst the far UV extinction arises in the HAC mantles with a small contribution form the silicate grains. The grain model requires that the silicate material is the more resilient component and that variations in the observed extinction from region to region are due to the nature and depletion of the carbon in the HAC mantles. (author)

Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniël B van Schalkwijk

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

Facilitation of extinction and re-extinction of operant behavior in mice by chlordiazepoxide and D-cycloserine.

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, Julian C; Norwood, Kelly

2013-05-01

The aim was to compare operant extinction with re-extinction following re-acquisition and to investigate neuropharmacological mechanisms through administration of drugs potentiating GABAergic or glutamatergic systems. Groups of C57Bl/6 mice were trained to lever press for food on a fixed ratio schedule, then extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine administration (15mg/kg in each case), then retrained to lever press for food, then re-extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine. Under vehicle injections, extinction and re-extinction curves were indistinguishable, but drug treatments showed that there was less resistance to extinction in the re-extinction phase. Chlordiazepoxide facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with an earlier effect during re-extinction. d-Cycloserine also facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with some evidence of an earlier effect during re-extinction. These results replicate and extend earlier findings with operant extinction, but differ from some previous reports of d-cycloserine on re-extinction of Pavlovian conditioned fear. Implications for accounts of the similarities and differences between neural mechanisms of extinction following either Pavlovian or operant conditioning, and applications of these findings, are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complementary sex determination substantially increases extinction proneness of haplodiploid populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zayed, Amro; Packer, Laurence

2005-07-26

The role of genetic factors in extinction is firmly established for diploid organisms, but haplodiploids have been considered immune to genetic load impacts because deleterious alleles are readily purged in haploid males. However, we show that single-locus complementary sex determination ancestral to the haplodiploid Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) imposes a substantial genetic load through homozygosity at the sex locus that results in the production of inviable or sterile diploid males. Using stochastic modeling, we have discovered that diploid male production (DMP) can initiate a rapid and previously uncharacterized extinction vortex. The extinction rate in haplodiploid populations with DMP is an order of magnitude greater than in its absence under realistic but conservative demographic parameter values. Furthermore, DMP alone can elevate the base extinction risk in haplodiploids by over an order of magnitude higher than that caused by inbreeding depression in threatened diploids. Thus, contrary to previous expectations, haplodiploids are more, rather than less, prone to extinction for genetic reasons. Our findings necessitate a fundamental shift in approaches to the conservation and population biology of these ecologically and economically crucial insects.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Long-Term Maintenance of Immediate or Delayed Extinction Is Determined by the Extinction-Test Interval

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

2010-01-01

Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively…

Late Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Consistent With YDB Impact Hypothesis at Younger Dryas Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Kennett, J. P.; Kennett, D. J.

2008-12-01

At least 35 mammal and 19 bird genera became extinct across North America near the end of the Pleistocene. Modern increases in stratigraphic and dating resolution suggest that this extinction occurred relatively rapidly near 12.9 ka (11 radiocarbon kyrs). Within the context of a long-standing debate about its cause, Firestone et al., (2007) proposed that this extinction resulted from an extraterrestrial (ET) impact over North America at 12.9 ka. This hypothesis predicts that the extinction of most of these animals should have occurred abruptly at 12.9 ka. To test this hypothesis, we have critically examined radiocarbon ages and the extinction stratigraphy of these taxa. From a large data pool, we selected only radiocarbon dates with low error margins with a preference for directly dated biological materials (e.g., bone, dung, etc.) and modern chemical purification techniques. A relatively small number of acceptable dates indicate that at least 16 animal genera and several other species became extinct close to 12.9 ka. These taxa include the most common animals of the late Pleistocene such as horses, camels, and mammoths. Also, the remains of extinct taxa are reportedly found up to, but not above, the base of a widely distributed carbon-rich layer called the black mat. This stratum forms an abrupt, major biostratigraphic boundary at the Younger Dryas onset (12.9 ka), which also contains multiple ET markers comprising the impact layer (the YDB). Surviving animal populations were abruptly reduced at the YDB (e.g., Bison), with major range restrictions and apparent evolutionary bottlenecks. The abruptness of this major extinction is inconsistent with the hypotheses of human overkill and climatic change. We argue that extinction ages older than 12.9 ka for many less common species result from the Signor-Lipps effect, but the impact hypothesis predicts that as new dates are acquired, they will approach ever closer to 12.9 ka. The megafaunal extinction is strongly

Towards a better preclinical model of PTSD: characterizing animals with weak extinction, maladaptive stress responses and low plasma corticosterone.

Science.gov (United States)

Reznikov, Roman; Diwan, Mustansir; Nobrega, José N; Hamani, Clement

2015-02-01

Most of the available preclinical models of PTSD have focused on isolated behavioural aspects and have not considered individual variations in response to stress. We employed behavioural criteria to identify and characterize a subpopulation of rats that present several features analogous to PTSD-like states after exposure to classical fear conditioning. Outbred Sprague-Dawley rats were segregated into weak- and strong-extinction groups on the basis of behavioural scores during extinction of conditioned fear responses. Animals were subsequently tested for anxiety-like behaviour in the open-field test (OFT), novelty suppressed feeding (NSF) and elevated plus maze (EPM). Baseline plasma corticosterone was measured prior to any behavioural manipulation. In a second experiment, rats underwent OFT, NSF and EPM prior to being subjected to fear conditioning to ascertain whether or not pre-stress levels of anxiety-like behaviours could predict extinction scores. We found that 25% of rats exhibit low extinction rates of conditioned fear, a feature that was associated with increased anxiety-like behaviour across multiple tests in comparison to rats showing strong extinction. In addition, weak-extinction animals showed low levels of corticosterone prior to fear conditioning, a variable that seemed to predict extinction recall scores. In a separate experiment, anxiety measures taken prior to fear conditioning were not predictive of a weak-extinction phenotype, suggesting that weak-extinction animals do not show detectable traits of anxiety in the absence of a stressful experience. These findings suggest that extinction impairment may be used to identify stress-vulnerable rats, thus providing a useful model for elucidating mechanisms and investigating potential treatments for PTSD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction order and altered community structure rapidly disrupt ecosystem functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Trond H; Williams, Neal M; Kremen, Claire

2005-05-01

By causing extinctions and altering community structure, anthropogenic disturbances can disrupt processes that maintain ecosystem integrity. However, the relationship between community structure and ecosystem functioning in natural systems is poorly understood. Here we show that habitat loss appeared to disrupt ecosystem functioning by affecting extinction order, species richness and abundance. We studied pollination by bees in a mosaic of agricultural and natural habitats in California and dung burial by dung beetles on recently created islands in Venezuela. We found that large-bodied bee and beetle species tended to be both most extinction-prone and most functionally efficient, contributing to rapid functional loss. Simulations confirmed that extinction order led to greater disruption of function than predicted by random species loss. Total abundance declined with richness and also appeared to contribute to loss of function. We demonstrate conceptually and empirically how the non-random response of communities to disturbance can have unexpectedly large functional consequences.

Fear extinction causes target-specific remodeling of perisomatic inhibitory synapses.

Science.gov (United States)

Trouche, Stéphanie; Sasaki, Jennifer M; Tu, Tiffany; Reijmers, Leon G

2013-11-20

A more complete understanding of how fear extinction alters neuronal activity and connectivity within fear circuits may aid in the development of strategies to treat human fear disorders. Using a c-fos-based transgenic mouse, we found that contextual fear extinction silenced basal amygdala (BA) excitatory neurons that had been previously activated during fear conditioning. We hypothesized that the silencing of BA fear neurons was caused by an action of extinction on BA inhibitory synapses. In support of this hypothesis, we found extinction-induced target-specific remodeling of BA perisomatic inhibitory synapses originating from parvalbumin and cholecystokinin-positive interneurons. Interestingly, the predicted changes in the balance of perisomatic inhibition matched the silent and active states of the target BA fear neurons. These observations suggest that target-specific changes in perisomatic inhibitory synapses represent a mechanism through which experience can sculpt the activation patterns within a neural circuit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Light extinction in metallic powder beds: Correlation with powder structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rombouts, M.; Froyen, L.; Gusarov, A.V.; Bentefour, E.H.; Glorieux, C.

2005-01-01

A theoretical correlation between the effective extinction coefficient, the specific surface area, and the chord length distribution of powder beds is verified experimentally. The investigated powder beds consist of metallic particles of several tens of microns. The effective extinction coefficients are measured by a light-transmission technique at a wavelength of 540 nm. The powder structure is characterized by a quantitative image analysis of powder bed cross sections resulting in two-point correlation functions and chord length distributions. The specific surface area of the powders is estimated by laser-diffraction particle-size analysis and by the two-point correlation function. The theoretically predicted tendency of increasing extinction coefficient with specific surface area per unit void volume is confirmed by the experiments. However, a significant quantitative discrepancy is found for several powders. No clear correlation of the extinction coefficient with the powder material and particle size, and morphology is revealed, which is in line with the assumption of geometrical optics

Extinction and the fossil record

Science.gov (United States)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, ,. J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The author examines evidence of mass extinctions in the fossil record and searches for reasons for such large extinctions. Five major mass extinctions eliminated at least 40 percent of animal genera in the oceans and from 65 to 95 percent of ocean species. Questions include the occurrence of gradual or catastrophic extinctions, causes, environment, the capacity of a perturbation to cause extinctions each time it happens, and the possibility and identification of complex events leading to a mass extinction.

Trait evolution, resource specialization and vulnerability to plant extinctions among Antillean hummingbirds.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalsgaard, Bo; Kennedy, Jonathan D; Simmons, Benno I; Baquero, Andrea C; Martín González, Ana M; Timmermann, Allan; Maruyama, Pietro K; McGuire, Jimmy A; Ollerton, Jeff; Sutherland, William J; Rahbek, Carsten

2018-03-28

Species traits are thought to predict feeding specialization and the vulnerability of a species to extinctions of interaction partners, but the context in which a species evolved and currently inhabits may also matter. Notably, the predictive power of traits may require that traits evolved to fit interaction partners. Furthermore, local abiotic and biotic conditions may be important. On islands, for instance, specialized and vulnerable species are predicted to be found mainly in mountains, whereas species in lowlands should be generalized and less vulnerable. We evaluated these predictions for hummingbirds and their nectar-food plants on Antillean islands. Our results suggest that the rates of hummingbird trait divergence were higher among ancestral mainland forms before the colonization of the Antilles. In correspondence with the limited trait evolution that occurred within the Antilles, local abiotic and biotic conditions-not species traits-correlate with hummingbird resource specialization and the vulnerability of hummingbirds to extinctions of their floral resources. Specifically, hummingbirds were more specialized and vulnerable in conditions with high topographical complexity, high rainfall, low temperatures and high floral resource richness, which characterize the Antillean Mountains. These findings show that resource specialization and species vulnerability to extinctions of interaction partners are highly context-dependent. © 2018 The Author(s).

Prefrontal single-unit firing associated with deficient extinction in mice

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, Paul J; Whittle, Nigel; Flynn, Shaun M; Graybeal, Carolyn; Pinard, Courtney; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Kravitz, Alexxai; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

2014-01-01

The neural circuitry mediating fear extinction has been increasingly well studied and delineated. The rodent infralimbic subregion (IL) of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been found to promote extinction, whereas the prelimbic cortex (PL) demonstrates an opposing, pro-fear, function. Studies employing in vivo electrophysiological recordings have observed that while increased IL single-unit firing and bursting predicts robust extinction retrieval, increased PL firing can correlate with sustained fear and poor extinction. These relationships between single-unit firing and extinction do not hold under all experimental conditions, however. In the current study, we further investigated the relationship between vmPFC and PL single-unit firing and extinction using inbred mouse models of intact (C57BL/6J, B6) and deficient (129S1/SvImJ, S1) extinction strains. Simultaneous single-unit recordings were made in the PL and vmPFC (encompassing IL) as B6 and S1 mice performed extinction training and retrieval. Impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice was associated with elevated PL single-unit firing, as compared to firing in extinguishing B6 mice, consistent with the hypothesized pro-fear contribution of PL. Analysis of local field potentials also revealed significantly higher gamma power in the PL of Sthan B6 mice during extinction training and retrieval. In the vmPFC, impaired extinction in S1 mice was also associated with exaggerated single-unit firing, relative to B6 mice. This is in apparent contradiction to evidence that IL activity promotes extinction, but could reflect a (failed) compensatory effort by the vmPFC to mitigate fear-promoting activity in other regions, such as the PL or amygdala. In support of this hypothesis, augmenting IL activity via direct infusion of the GABAA receptor antagonist picrotoxin rescued impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced modest reductions in fear during extinction retrieval and

A popular and potentially sustainable fishery resource under pressure–extinction risk and conservation of Brazilian Sciaenidae (Teleostei: Perciformes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Labbish Chao

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Croakers (Sciaenidae are major fishery resource in Brazil; constituting 22% of marine and 9% of freshwater fishery landings. Croakers are subject to heavy fishing pressure throughout Brazil, but habitat alteration is also an important threat to regional populations. In this regional Sciaenidae assessment, each species was analyzed for relative risk of extinction, including the identification and quantification of the impact of major threats and existing conservation measures, based on application of the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Of the 52 species of Sciaenid fishes (34 marine and 18 freshwater present in Brazilian waters, the majority are at low risk of extinction, with 10 species classified as Data Deficient (DD and 36 as Least Concern (LC. However the Southern black drum (Pogonias cromis, listed as Endangered (EN is the most threatened species in the region, while three other species are classified as Near Threatened (NT. A large portion of Brazilian croakers is landed by small-scale artisanal fisheries, which are scattered along coastal and riverine communities. However, our assessments reveal that available fishery landing statistics may have greatly underestimated the artisanal fishery production and by-catch of Sciaenids. We recommend establishing, with adequate enforcement, coastal and riverine protected areas as well as strategic fishing seasons to improve and maintain the conservation status of Sciaenids and sustainable Sciaenid fisheries.

Species Turnover through Time: Colonization and Extinction Dynamics across Metacommunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuvoloni, Felipe Micali; Feres, Reinaldo José Fazzio; Gilbert, Benjamin

2016-06-01

Island biogeography and metacommunity theory often use equilibrium assumptions to predict local diversity, yet nonequilibrium dynamics are common in nature. In nonequilibrium communities, local diversity fluctuates through time as the relative importance of colonization and extinction change. Here, we test the prevalence and causes of nonequilibrium dynamics in metacommunities of mites associated with rubber trees distributed over large spatial (>1,000 km) and temporal (>30-60 generations) scales in Brazil. We measured colonization and extinction rates to test species turnover and nonequilibrium dynamics over a growing season. Mite metacommunities exhibited nonequilibrium dynamics for most months of the year, and these dynamics tracked climatic conditions. Monthly shifts in temperature of more than 1°C resulted in nonequilibrium dynamics, as did mean temperatures outside of two critical ranges. Nonequilibrium dynamics were caused by a change in colonization with temperature change and changes in both colonization and extinction with absolute temperature. Species turnover showed different trends; high relative humidity increased both colonization and extinction rates, increasing turnover but not nonequilibrium dynamics. Our study illustrates that testing nonequilibrium dynamics can provide new insights into the drivers of colonization, extinction, and diversity fluctuations in metacommunities.

Biological extinction in earth history

Science.gov (United States)

Raup, D. M.

1986-01-01

Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

Biological Extinction in Earth History

Science.gov (United States)

Raup, David M.

1986-03-01

Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

From Pavlov to PTSD: the extinction of conditioned fear in rodents, humans, and anxiety disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

VanElzakker, Michael B; Dahlgren, M Kathryn; Davis, F Caroline; Dubois, Stacey; Shin, Lisa M

2014-09-01

Nearly 100 years ago, Ivan Pavlov demonstrated that dogs could learn to use a neutral cue to predict a biologically relevant event: after repeated predictive pairings, Pavlov's dogs were conditioned to anticipate food at the sound of a bell, which caused them to salivate. Like sustenance, danger is biologically relevant, and neutral cues can take on great salience when they predict a threat to survival. In anxiety disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), this type of conditioned fear fails to extinguish, and reminders of traumatic events can cause pathological conditioned fear responses for decades after danger has passed. In this review, we use fear conditioning and extinction studies to draw a direct line from Pavlov to PTSD and other anxiety disorders. We explain how rodent studies have informed neuroimaging studies of healthy humans and humans with PTSD. We describe several genes that have been linked to both PTSD and fear conditioning and extinction and explain how abnormalities in fear conditioning or extinction may reflect a general biomarker of anxiety disorders. Finally, we explore drug and neuromodulation treatments that may enhance therapeutic extinction in anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optical extinction dependence on wavelength and size distribution of airborne dust

Science.gov (United States)

Pangle, Garrett E.; Hook, D. A.; Long, Brandon J. N.; Philbrick, C. R.; Hallen, Hans D.

2013-05-01

The optical scattering from laser beams propagating through atmospheric aerosols has been shown to be very useful in describing air pollution aerosol properties. This research explores and extends that capability to particulate matter. The optical properties of Arizona Road Dust (ARD) samples are measured in a chamber that simulates the particle dispersal of dust aerosols in the atmospheric environment. Visible, near infrared, and long wave infrared lasers are used. Optical scattering measurements show the expected dependence of laser wavelength and particle size on the extinction of laser beams. The extinction at long wavelengths demonstrates reduced scattering, but chemical absorption of dust species must be considered. The extinction and depolarization of laser wavelengths interacting with several size cuts of ARD are examined. The measurements include studies of different size distributions, and their evolution over time is recorded by an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer. We analyze the size-dependent extinction and depolarization of ARD. We present a method of predicting extinction for an arbitrary ARD size distribution. These studies provide new insights for understanding the optical propagation of laser beams through airborne particulate matter.

The celestial factor and the formula to explain or predict all extinctions of the fossil record

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elewa, A.M.T.

2012-01-01

In reality there are various kinds of explanations for each type of extinction. This paper introduces a new theory to explain and to estimate the size and frequency of all extinctions over the entire period of 600 my of the fossil record. The central point was the search for a common pattern and

Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

2014-01-01

A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

The influence of speed and size on avian terrestrial locomotor biomechanics: Predicting locomotion in extinct theropod dinosaurs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P J Bishop

Full Text Available How extinct, non-avian theropod dinosaurs moved is a subject of considerable interest and controversy. A better understanding of non-avian theropod locomotion can be achieved by better understanding terrestrial locomotor biomechanics in their modern descendants, birds. Despite much research on the subject, avian terrestrial locomotion remains little explored in regards to how kinematic and kinetic factors vary together with speed and body size. Here, terrestrial locomotion was investigated in twelve species of ground-dwelling bird, spanning a 1,780-fold range in body mass, across almost their entire speed range. Particular attention was devoted to the ground reaction force (GRF, the force that the feet exert upon the ground. Comparable data for the only other extant obligate, striding biped, humans, were also collected and studied. In birds, all kinematic and kinetic parameters examined changed continuously with increasing speed, while in humans all but one of those same parameters changed abruptly at the walk-run transition. This result supports previous studies that show birds to have a highly continuous locomotor repertoire compared to humans, where discrete 'walking' and 'running' gaits are not easily distinguished based on kinematic patterns alone. The influences of speed and body size on kinematic and kinetic factors in birds are developed into a set of predictive relationships that may be applied to extinct, non-avian theropods. The resulting predictive model is able to explain 79-93% of the observed variation in kinematics and 69-83% of the observed variation in GRFs, and also performs well in extrapolation tests. However, this study also found that the location of the whole-body centre of mass may exert an important influence on the nature of the GRF, and hence some caution is warranted, in lieu of further investigation.

The influence of speed and size on avian terrestrial locomotor biomechanics: Predicting locomotion in extinct theropod dinosaurs.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, P J; Graham, D F; Lamas, L P; Hutchinson, J R; Rubenson, J; Hancock, J A; Wilson, R S; Hocknull, S A; Barrett, R S; Lloyd, D G; Clemente, C J

2018-01-01

How extinct, non-avian theropod dinosaurs moved is a subject of considerable interest and controversy. A better understanding of non-avian theropod locomotion can be achieved by better understanding terrestrial locomotor biomechanics in their modern descendants, birds. Despite much research on the subject, avian terrestrial locomotion remains little explored in regards to how kinematic and kinetic factors vary together with speed and body size. Here, terrestrial locomotion was investigated in twelve species of ground-dwelling bird, spanning a 1,780-fold range in body mass, across almost their entire speed range. Particular attention was devoted to the ground reaction force (GRF), the force that the feet exert upon the ground. Comparable data for the only other extant obligate, striding biped, humans, were also collected and studied. In birds, all kinematic and kinetic parameters examined changed continuously with increasing speed, while in humans all but one of those same parameters changed abruptly at the walk-run transition. This result supports previous studies that show birds to have a highly continuous locomotor repertoire compared to humans, where discrete 'walking' and 'running' gaits are not easily distinguished based on kinematic patterns alone. The influences of speed and body size on kinematic and kinetic factors in birds are developed into a set of predictive relationships that may be applied to extinct, non-avian theropods. The resulting predictive model is able to explain 79-93% of the observed variation in kinematics and 69-83% of the observed variation in GRFs, and also performs well in extrapolation tests. However, this study also found that the location of the whole-body centre of mass may exert an important influence on the nature of the GRF, and hence some caution is warranted, in lieu of further investigation.

The influence of speed and size on avian terrestrial locomotor biomechanics: Predicting locomotion in extinct theropod dinosaurs

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, D. F.; Lamas, L. P.; Hutchinson, J. R.; Rubenson, J.; Hancock, J. A.; Wilson, R. S.; Hocknull, S. A.; Barrett, R. S.; Lloyd, D. G.; Clemente, C. J.

2018-01-01

How extinct, non-avian theropod dinosaurs moved is a subject of considerable interest and controversy. A better understanding of non-avian theropod locomotion can be achieved by better understanding terrestrial locomotor biomechanics in their modern descendants, birds. Despite much research on the subject, avian terrestrial locomotion remains little explored in regards to how kinematic and kinetic factors vary together with speed and body size. Here, terrestrial locomotion was investigated in twelve species of ground-dwelling bird, spanning a 1,780-fold range in body mass, across almost their entire speed range. Particular attention was devoted to the ground reaction force (GRF), the force that the feet exert upon the ground. Comparable data for the only other extant obligate, striding biped, humans, were also collected and studied. In birds, all kinematic and kinetic parameters examined changed continuously with increasing speed, while in humans all but one of those same parameters changed abruptly at the walk-run transition. This result supports previous studies that show birds to have a highly continuous locomotor repertoire compared to humans, where discrete ‘walking’ and ‘running’ gaits are not easily distinguished based on kinematic patterns alone. The influences of speed and body size on kinematic and kinetic factors in birds are developed into a set of predictive relationships that may be applied to extinct, non-avian theropods. The resulting predictive model is able to explain 79–93% of the observed variation in kinematics and 69–83% of the observed variation in GRFs, and also performs well in extrapolation tests. However, this study also found that the location of the whole-body centre of mass may exert an important influence on the nature of the GRF, and hence some caution is warranted, in lieu of further investigation. PMID:29466362

Evaluating differences in Pavlovian fear acquisition and extinction as predictors of outcome from cognitive behavioural therapy for anxious children.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Allison M; Pine, Daniel S

2016-07-01

Extinction is a key theoretical model of exposure-based treatments, such as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT). This study examined whether individual differences in physiological responses and subjective stimulus evaluations as indices of fear extinction predicted response to CBT. Thirty-two nonanxious comparisons and 44 anxious, 7-to-13-year-old children completed a Pavlovian conditioning and extinction task. Anxious children then completed group-based CBT. Skin conductance responses (SCRs) as well as subjective arousal and valence evaluations were measured in response to a conditioned stimulus paired with an aversive tone (CS+) and another conditioned stimulus presented alone (CS-). Both stimuli were presented alone during extinction. Diagnostic and symptom measures were completed before and after treatment. Like nonanxious comparisons, treatment responders did not acquire conditioned negative stimulus evaluations and displayed elevated SCRs that declined significantly across extinction trials. Nonresponders, by contrast, showed elevated negative stimulus evaluations of both CSs that were sensitive to extinction trials but showed no change in SCRs during extinction. Change in physiological but not evaluative indices of fear extinction predicted better treatment outcomes. Individual differences in evaluative and physiological indices of fear extinction might moderate response to CBT. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

Science.gov (United States)

Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

2018-06-01

In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Resolution function normalisation and secondary extinction in neutron triple-axis spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tindle, G.L.

1987-01-01

The theory of resolution correction in triple-axis spectrometry is developed from first principles. It is demonstrated that for ideally imperfect thin crystals the formulation coincides with that introduced initially by Cooper and Nathans and subsequently considered by Dorner. The predicted energy variation of peak Bragg reflectivities of monochromator and analyser crystals in Bragg case scattering is such as to confirm experimental data. In the Laue case to obtain results compatible with experiment one has to invoke theories of secondary extinction. In an attempt to accommodate these observations a new finite threshold model of secondary extinction is proposed which interpolates thin crystals formulas and conventional secondary extinction formulas obtained in the zero threshold limit. (orig.)

A mind cleared by walnut oil: The effects of polyunsaturated and saturated fat on extinction learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Holly C; Struyf, Dieter; Baptist, Pascale; Dalile, Boushra; Van Oudenhove, Lukas; Van Diest, Ilse

2018-04-07

The treatment of anxiety-based psychopathology often hinges upon extinction learning. Research in nutritional neuroscience has observed that the regular consumption of perilla oil (50% alpha-linolenic acid (ALA)) facilitates extinction learning in rats (Yamamoto et al., 1988). However, acute facilitation of extinction learning by oils rich in ALA has not been reported for rats or humans, though the acute consumption of rapeseed oil (10% ALA) has been observed to improve cognitive processing speed in humans (Jones, Sünram-Lea, & Wesnes, 2012). For this reason, the present laboratory work examined the effects of adding walnut oil (12% ALA) to a chocolate milkshake on the acquisition, generalization, and extinction of a fear-based prediction in young adults. It compared performance between subjects. The other participants consumed a similar milkshake with either an equicaloric amount of cream (saturated fat), or with no added fat (control). Acquisition and generalization of the fear-based prediction were similar for all groups. However, those who consumed walnut oil extinguished most rapidly and profoundly. Implications for extinction learning are discussed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Extinction of polarized light in ferrofluids with different magnetic particle concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Socoliuc, V.; Popescu, L.B.

2012-01-01

The magnetic field intensity and nanoparticle concentration dependence of the polarized light extinction in a ferrofluid made of magnetite particles stabilized with technical grade oleic acid dispersed in transformer oil was experimentally investigated. The magnetically induced optical anisotropy, i.e. the dichroism divided by concentration, was found to decrease with increasing sample concentration from 2% to 8%. The magnetically induced change in the optical extinction of light polarized at 54.74 o with respect to the magnetic field direction was found to be positive for the less concentrated sample (2%) and negative for the samples with 4% and 8% magnetic nanoparticle concentrations, the more negative the higher the concentration and field intensity. Based on the theoretically proven fact that the particle orientation mechanism has no effect on the extinction of light polarized at 54.74 o with respect to the field direction, we analyzed the experimental findings in the frames of the agglomeration and long-range pair correlations theories for the magnetically induced optical anisotropy in ferrofluids. We developed a theoretical model in the approximation of single scattering for the optical extinction coefficient of a ferrofluid with magnetically induced particle agglomeration. The model predicts the existence of a polarization independent component of the optical extinction coefficient that is experimentally measurable at 54.74 o polarization angle. The change in the optical extinction of light polarized at 54.74 o is positive if only the formation of straight n-particle chains is considered and may become negative in the hypothesis that the longer chains degenerate to more isotropic structures (polymer-like coils, globules or bundles of chains). The model for the influence on the light absorption of the long-range pair correlations, published elsewhere, predicts that the change in the optical extinction of light polarized at 54.74 o is always negative, the more

Place of great extinctions in the new ecological paradigm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. Я. Кипоренко

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The paper demonstrates importance of the knowledge of the causes and consequences of the Great extinctions that occurred before the origin of man, in the formation of a new environmental paradigm. Were described methodological foundations of paleoecological studies. Were analyzed the fossilized remains found directly by the authors on the territory of Ukraine. In the development of new environmental paradigm is necessary to consider knowledge of the great extinction (the knowledge of the past, because it is an event, that can be used not only to study past, as well as predicting the same events in the future

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Segura

Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

2017-01-01

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Earthquake prediction using extinct monogenetic volcanoes: A possible new research strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Szakács, Alexandru

2011-04-01

Volcanoes are extremely effective transmitters of matter, energy and information from the deep Earth towards its surface. Their capacities as information carriers are far to be fully exploited so far. Volcanic conduits can be viewed in general as rod-like or sheet-like vertical features with relatively homogenous composition and structure crosscutting geological structures of far more complexity and compositional heterogeneity. Information-carrying signals such as earthquake precursor signals originating deep below the Earth surface are transmitted with much less loss of information through homogenous vertically extended structures than through the horizontally segmented heterogeneous lithosphere or crust. Volcanic conduits can thus be viewed as upside-down "antennas" or waveguides which can be used as privileged pathways of any possible earthquake precursor signal. In particular, conduits of monogenetic volcanoes are promising transmitters of deep Earth information to be received and decoded at surface monitoring stations because the expected more homogenous nature of their rock-fill as compared to polygenetic volcanoes. Among monogenetic volcanoes those with dominantly effusive activity appear as the best candidates for privileged earthquake monitoring sites. In more details, effusive monogenetic volcanic conduits filled with rocks of primitive parental magma composition indicating direct ascent from sub-lithospheric magma-generating areas are the most suitable. Further selection criteria may include age of the volcanism considered and the presence of mantle xenoliths in surface volcanic products indicating direct and straightforward link between the deep lithospheric mantle and surface through the conduit. Innovative earthquake prediction research strategies can be based and developed on these grounds by considering conduits of selected extinct monogenetic volcanoes and deep trans-crustal fractures as privileged emplacement sites of seismic monitoring stations

Modern examples of extinctions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lövei, Gabor L

2013-01-01

No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction...

Mass extinctions drove increased global faunal cosmopolitanism on the supercontinent Pangaea.

Science.gov (United States)

Button, David J; Lloyd, Graeme T; Ezcurra, Martín D; Butler, Richard J

2017-10-10

Mass extinctions have profoundly impacted the evolution of life through not only reducing taxonomic diversity but also reshaping ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. In particular, they are considered to have driven increased biogeographic cosmopolitanism, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis are rare and have not explicitly incorporated information on evolutionary relationships. Here we quantify faunal cosmopolitanism using a phylogenetic network approach for 891 terrestrial vertebrate species spanning the late Permian through Early Jurassic. This key interval witnessed the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions, the onset of fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangaea, and the origins of dinosaurs and many modern vertebrate groups. Our results recover significant increases in global faunal cosmopolitanism following both mass extinctions, driven mainly by new, widespread taxa, leading to homogenous 'disaster faunas'. Cosmopolitanism subsequently declines in post-recovery communities. These shared patterns in both biotic crises suggest that mass extinctions have predictable influences on animal distribution and may shed light on biodiversity loss in extant ecosystems.Mass extinctions are thought to produce 'disaster faunas', communities dominated by a small number of widespread species. Here, Button et al. develop a phylogenetic network approach to test this hypothesis and find that mass extinctions did increase faunal cosmopolitanism across Pangaea during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic.

A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don-hare Lepus tanaiticus.

Science.gov (United States)

Prost, S; Knapp, M; Flemmig, J; Hufthammer, A K; Kosintsev, P; Stiller, M; Hofreiter, M

2010-09-01

The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don-hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339-basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D-loop. Phylogenetic tree- and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of 'L. tanaiticus' represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Murray, Nicholas J

2018-04-01

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

From Pavlov to PTSD: The extinction of conditioned fear in rodents, humans, and in anxiety disorders

Science.gov (United States)

VanElzakker, Michael B.; Dahlgren, M. Kathryn; Davis, F. Caroline; Dubois, Stacey; Shin, Lisa M.

2014-01-01

Nearly 100 years ago, Ivan Pavlov demonstrated that dogs could learn to use a neutral cue to predict a biologically relevant event: after repeated predictive pairings, Pavlov's dogs were conditioned to anticipate food at the sound of a bell, which caused them to salivate. Like sustenance, danger is biologically relevant, and neutral cues can take on great salience when they predict a threat to survival. In anxiety disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), this type of conditioned fear fails to extinguish, and reminders of traumatic events can cause pathological conditioned fear responses for decades after danger has passed. In this review, we use fear conditioning and extinction studies to draw a direct line from Pavlov to PTSD and other anxiety disorders. We explain how rodent studies have informed neuroimaging studies of healthy humans and humans with PTSD. We describe several genes that have been linked to both PTSD and fear conditioning and extinction and explain how abnormalities in fear conditioning or extinction may reflect a general biomarker of anxiety disorders. Finally, we explore drug and neuromodulation treatments that may enhance therapeutic extinction in anxiety disorders. PMID:24321650

Methanol Droplet Extinction in Carbon-Dioxide-Enriched Environments in Microgravity

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Michael C.; Nayagam, Vedha; Williams, Forman A.

2010-01-01

Diffusive extinction of methanol droplets with initial diameters between 1.25 mm and 1.72 mm, burning in a quiescent microgravity environment at one atmosphere pressure, was obtained experimentally for varying levels of ambient carbon-dioxide concentrations with a fixed oxygen concentration of 21% and a balance of nitrogen. These experiments serve as precursors to those which are beginning to be performed on the International Space Station and are motivated by the need to understand the effectiveness of carbon-dioxide as a fire suppressant in low-gravity environments. In these experiments, the flame standoff distance, droplet diameter, and flame radiation are measured as functions of time. The results show that the droplet extinction diameter depends on both the initial droplet diameter and the ambient concentration of carbon dioxide. Increasing the initial droplet diameter leads to an increased extinction diameter, while increasing the carbon-dioxide concentration leads to a slight decrease in the extinction diameter. These results are interpreted using a critical Damk hler number for extinction as predicted by an earlier theory, which is extended here to be applicable in the presence of effects of heat conduction along the droplet support fibers and of the volume occupied by the support beads

The Late Ordovician Extinction: How it became the best understood of the five major extinctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, P.

2003-04-01

The end Ordovician extinction has become arguably the best-understood major extinction event in Earth History. A plethora of workers have established the pattern of faunal change and causes of the extinction with remarkably little disagreement. The first indication of increased extinction at the end of the Ordovician was a graph of global diversity patterns by Norman Newell in 1967, although he did not recognize it as a major event. The presence of a major extinction event became clear as William Berry and Art Boucot assembled data for Silurian correlation charts in the late 1960s. The first reports of North African glaciation in the late 1960s provided a cause for the extinction and study of the event snowballed. It was no accident that recognition of the extinction began in North America, because it was there that the extinction completely overturned faunas in the epicontinental seas. Glacio-eustatic regression of shallow seaway coincided with the disappearance of endemic Laurentian faunas and replacement by a highly cosmopolitan fauna in the Silurian. Once the event was established in North America, paleontologists soon found evidence of the event around the globe. The well-documented Hirnantia Fauna was found to correspond to the glacial interval, and Pat Brenchley soon recognized that there were two pulses of extinction, at the beginning and end of the glaciation. At the same time that the faunal changes were being documented geologic studies of the glaciation provided information on the environmental changes associated with the extinction. The timing of the glacial maximum was established in Africa and by the presence of dropstones in high latitude marine rocks. The 1990s saw geochemical techniques employed that allowed examination of atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes. In many places carbonate deposition declined. Glacio-eustatic regression was obvious in many areas, and a sea-level decline in the range of 50-100 m was established. Shallow

Modelling interstellar extinction: Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, A.P.

1988-01-01

Several methods of calculating the extinction of porous silicate grains are discussed, these include effective medium theories and hollow spherical shells. Porous silicate grains are shown to produce enhanced infrared, ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet extinction and this effect can be used to reduce the abundance of carbon required to match the average interstellar extinction, however, matching the visual extinction is rather more problematical. We have shown that the enhanced extinction at long and short wavelengths have different origins, and have explained why the visual extinction is little affected by porosity. The implications of porous grains in the interstellar medium are discussed with particular reference to surface chemistry, the polarization of starlight, and their dynamical evolution. (author)

Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon A Black

Full Text Available Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L

2013-01-01

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

Science.gov (United States)

Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

2015-01-01

Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

THE MID-INFRARED EXTINCTION LAW IN THE OPHIUCHUS, PERSEUS, AND SERPENS MOLECULAR CLOUDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, Nicholas L.; Mundy, Lee G.; Lai, Shih-Ping; Evans, Neal J. II

2009-01-01

We compute the mid-IR extinction law from 3.6 to 24 μm in three molecular clouds-Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens-by combining data from the 'Cores to Disks' Spitzer Legacy Science program with deep JHK s imaging. Using a new technique, we are able to calculate the line-of-sight (LOS) extinction law toward each background star in our fields. With these LOS measurements, we create, for the first time, maps of the χ 2 deviation of the data from two extinction law models. Because our χ 2 maps have the same spatial resolution as our extinction maps, we can directly observe the changing extinction law as a function of the total column density. In the Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands, 3.6-8 μm, we see evidence for grain growth. Below A K s = 0.5, our extinction law is well fitted by the Weingartner and Draine R V = 3.1 diffuse interstellar-medium dust model. As the extinction increases, our law gradually flattens, and for A K s ≥1, the data are more consistent with the Weingartner and Draine R V = 5.5 model that uses larger maximum dust grain sizes. At 24 μm, our extinction law is 2-4 times higher than the values predicted by theoretical dust models, but is more consistent with the observational results of Flaherty et al. Finally, from our χ 2 maps we identify a region in Perseus where the IRAC extinction law is anomalously high considering its column density. A steeper near-IR extinction law than the one we have assumed may partially explain the IRAC extinction law in this region.

Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

2014-08-15

A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enhancement of large fluctuations to extinction in adaptive networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.; Shaw, Leah B.

2018-01-01

During an epidemic, individual nodes in a network may adapt their connections to reduce the chance of infection. A common form of adaption is avoidance rewiring, where a noninfected node breaks a connection to an infected neighbor and forms a new connection to another noninfected node. Here we explore the effects of such adaptivity on stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, focusing on the largest fluctuations that result in extinction of infection. Using techniques from large-deviation theory, combined with a measurement of heterogeneity in the susceptible degree distribution at the endemic state, we are able to predict and analyze large fluctuations and extinction in adaptive networks. We find that in the limit of small rewiring there is a sharp exponential reduction in mean extinction times compared to the case of zero adaption. Furthermore, we find an exponential enhancement in the probability of large fluctuations with increased rewiring rate, even when holding the average number of infected nodes constant.

Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

2015-01-01

Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate...... evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending...... computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific...

Demographic resilience of territorial island birds to extinction: the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Since 1600, a disproportionate number of avian extinctions have occurred among flightless and island-dwelling species. Some of these happened very rapidly, implying that such populations had low resilience to perturbation. In managing insular populations, there is a need to be able to predict their demographic ...

Glucocorticoid receptors and extinction retention deficits in the single prolonged stress model.

Science.gov (United States)

Knox, D; Nault, T; Henderson, C; Liberzon, I

2012-10-25

Single prolonged stress (SPS) is a rodent model of post traumatic stress disorder that is comprised of serial application of restraint (r), forced swim (fs), and ether (eth) followed by a 7-day quiescent period. SPS induces extinction retention deficits and it is believed that these deficits are caused by the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth. However, this hypothesis remains untested. Neurobiological mechanisms by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits are unknown, but SPS enhances glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression in the hippocampus, which is critical for contextual modulation of extinction retrieval. Upregulation of GRs in extinction circuits may be a mechanism by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits, but this hypothesis has not been examined. In this study, we systematically altered the stressors that constitute SPS (i.e. r, fs, eth), generating a number of partial SPS (p-SPS) groups, and observed the effects SPS and p-SPSs had on extinction retention and GR levels in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC). PFC GRs were assayed, because regions of the PFC are critical for maintaining extinction. We predicted that only exposure to full SPS would result in extinction retention deficits and enhance hippocampal and PFC GR levels. Only exposure to full SPS induced extinction retention deficits. Hippocampal and PFC GR expression was enhanced by SPS and most p-SPSs, however hippocampal GR expression was significantly larger following the full SPS exposure than all other conditions. Our findings suggest that the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth results in extinction retention deficits. The results also suggest that simple enhancements in GR expression in the hippocampus and PFC are insufficient to result in extinction retention deficits, but raise the possibility that a threshold-enhancement in hippocampal GR expression contributes to SPS-induced extinction retention deficits

Timing of extinction relative to acquisition: A parametric analysis of fear extinction in humans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norrholm, S.D.; Vervliet, B.; Jovanovic, T.; Boshoven, W.; Myers, K.M.; Davis, M.; Rothbaum, B.O.; Duncan, E.J.

2008-01-01

Fear extinction is a reduction in conditioned fear following repeated exposure to the feared cue in the absence of any aversive event. Extinguished fear often reappears after extinction through spontaneous recovery. Animal studies suggest that spontaneous recovery can be abolished if extinction

Rescaling of temporal expectations during extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, Michael R.; Walsh, Carolyn; Balsam, Peter D

2016-01-01

Previous research suggests that extinction learning is temporally specific. Changing the CS duration between training and extinction can facilitate the loss of the CR within the extinction session but impairs long-term retention of extinction. In two experiments using conditioned magazine approach with rats, we examined the relation between temporal specificity of extinction and CR timing. In Experiment 1 rats were trained on a 12-s, fixed CS-US interval and then extinguished with CS presentations that were 6, 12, or 24 s in duration. The design of Experiment 2 was the same except rats were trained using partial rather than continuous reinforcement. In both experiments, extending the CS duration in extinction facilitated the diminution of CRs during the extinction session, but shortening the CS duration failed to slow extinction. In addition, extending (but not shortening) the CS duration caused temporal rescaling of the CR, in that the peak CR rate migrated later into the trial over the course of extinction training. This migration partially accounted for the faster loss of the CR when the CS duration was extended. Results are incompatible with the hypothesis that extinction is driven by cumulative CS exposure and suggest that temporally extended nonreinforced CS exposure reduces conditioned responding via temporal displacement rather than through extinction per se. PMID:28045291

End Ordovician extinctions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harper, David A. T.; Hammarlund, Emma; Rasmussen, Christian M. Ø.

2014-01-01

-global anoxia associated with a marked transgression during the Late Hirnantian. Most recently, however, new drivers for the extinctions have been proposed, including widespread euxinia together with habitat destruction caused by plate tectonic movements, suggesting that the end Ordovician mass extinctions were...

Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

2016-01-01

Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction. PMID:27617747

Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

2016-09-01

Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction.

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction of NGC 7027

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seaton, M.J.

1979-01-01

Emission intensities of recombination lines in hydrogenic spectra are known accurately relative to intensities in the free-free radio continuum. For NGC 7027 intensities have been measured for the radio continuum and for H I and He II lines in the wavelength range from lambda = 2.17 μm to lambda = 1640 A: comparison with the calculated emission intensities gives the extinction. Determinations of the standard interstellar extinction function are critically discussed. The extinction deduced for the total radiation from NGC 7027 has a dependence on wavelength for 6563 A >= lambda >= 1640 A which is in excellent agreement with the adopted standard results, but there are some anomalies for longer wavelengths and for the ratio of total to selective extinction. These can be explained using a model which allows for a local contribution to the extinction which is variable over the surface of the nebula. (author)

Extinction with multiple excitors

OpenAIRE

McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

2013-01-01

Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated...

A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

Is IR going extinct?

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Audra

2016-01-01

A global extinction crisis may threaten the survival of most existing life forms. Influential discourses of ‘existential risk’ suggest that human extinction is a real possibility, while several decades of evidence from conservation biology suggests that the Earth may be entering a ‘sixth mass extinction event’. These conditions threaten the possibilities of survival and security that are central to most branches of International Relations. However, this discipline lacks a framework for addressing (mass) extinction. From notions of ‘nuclear winter’ and ‘omnicide’ to contemporary discourses on catastrophe, International Relations thinking has treated extinction as a superlative of death. This is a profound category mistake: extinction needs to be understood not in the ontic terms of life and death, but rather in the ontological context of be(com)ing and negation. Drawing on the work of theorists of the ‘inhuman’ such as Quentin Meillassoux, Claire Colebrook, Ray Brassier, Jean-Francois Lyotard and Nigel Clark, this article provides a pathway for thinking beyond existing horizons of survival and imagines a profound transformation of International Relations. Specifically, it outlines a mode of cosmopolitics that responds to the element of the inhuman and the forces of extinction. Rather than capitulating to narratives of tragedy, this cosmopolitics would make it possible to think beyond the restrictions of existing norms of ‘humanity’ to embrace an ethics of gratitude and to welcome the possibility of new worlds, even in the face of finitude.

The currency and tempo of extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, H M; Lupia, R; Drinnan, A N; Burgman, M A

2001-01-01

This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates.

Immediate extinction causes a less durable loss of performance than delayed extinction following either fear or appetitive conditioning

OpenAIRE

Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

2008-01-01

Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In all experiments, conditioning and extinction were accomplished in single sessions, and retention testing took place 24 h after extinction. In both f...

Fear of cultural extinction and psychopathology among Mandaean refugees: an exploratory path analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nickerson, Angela; Bryant, Richard A; Brooks, Robert; Steel, Zachary; Silove, Derrick

2009-01-01

The Mandaeans are a small religious community originating from Iraq and Iran who are facing the possibility of cultural extinction within the next few generations. This study aimed to examine the relationships between life experiences, psychopathology and fear of cultural extinction in Mandaean refugees. A survey was conducted of 315 adult Iraqi Mandaean refugees living in Australia. Past traumatic experiences and current resettlement difficulties were assessed. Mental health outcomes were also examined, including measures of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Fear of cultural extinction was measured by items developed in consultation with the Mandaean community. A path analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between trauma, living difficulties, PTSD, depression, and fear of cultural extinction. Results indicated that trauma and living difficulties impacted indirectly on fear of cultural extinction, while PTSD (and not depression) directly predicted levels of anxiety about the Mandaean culture ceasing to exist. The current findings indicate that past trauma and symptoms of posttraumatic stress contribute to fear of cultural extinction. Exposure to human rights violations enacted on the basis of religion has significant mental health consequences that extend beyond PTSD. The relationship between perception of threat, PTSD, and fear of cultural extinction is considered in the context of cognitive models of traumatic stress. Government immigration policy must prioritize the reunification of small, endangered groups to sustain cultural traditions. Treatment interventions implemented with cultural groups facing extinction should take into consideration anxiety about loss of culture.

Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

2015-09-01

Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Peter J; Estabrook, George F

2014-11-18

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models.

Effects of a Context Shift and Multiple Context Extinction on Reactivity to Alcohol Cues

Science.gov (United States)

MacKillop, James; Lisman, Stephen A.

2008-01-01

Cue exposure treatment (CET) attempts to reduce the influence of conditioned substance cues on addictive behavior via prolonged cue exposure with response prevention (i.e., extinction), but has received only modest empirical support in clinical trials. This may be because extinction learning appears to be context dependent and a change in context may result in a return of conditioned responding (i.e., renewal), although this has received only limited empirical examination. The current study used a four-session laboratory analogue of CET to examine whether a change in context following three sessions of alcohol cue exposure with response prevention would result in renewal of conditioned responding. In addition, this study examined whether conducting extinction in multiple contexts would attenuate renewal of conditioned responding. In a one-way between-subjects design, 73 heavy drinkers (71% male) were randomized to three conditions: 1) single context extinction (extinction to alcohol cues in the same context for three sessions followed by a context shift at the fourth session); 2) multiple context extinction (extinction to alcohol cues in different contexts each day for all four sessions); and 3) pseudo-extinction control condition (exposure to neutral cues in the same context for three sessions followed by exposure to alcohol cues at the fourth session). The results revealed the predicted cue reactivity and extinction effects, but the hypotheses that a context shift would generate renewed cue reactivity and that multiple contexts would enhance extinction were not supported. Methodological aspects of the study and the need for parametric data on the context dependency of extinction to alcohol cues are discussed. PMID:18729687

Extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues in animal models: relevance to the treatment of addiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Karyn M; Carlezon, William A

2010-11-01

Conditioned drug craving and withdrawal elicited by cues paired with drug use or acute withdrawal are among the many factors contributing to compulsive drug taking. Understanding how to stop these cues from having these effects is a major goal of addiction research. Extinction is a form of learning in which associations between cues and the events they predict are weakened by exposure to the cues in the absence of those events. Evidence from animal models suggests that conditioned responses to drug cues can be extinguished, although the degree to which this occurs in humans is controversial. Investigations into the neurobiological substrates of extinction of conditioned drug craving and withdrawal may facilitate the successful use of drug cue extinction within clinical contexts. While this work is still in the early stages, there are indications that extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues shares neural mechanisms with extinction of conditioned fear. Using the fear extinction literature as a template, it is possible to organize the observations on drug cue extinction into a cohesive framework. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J. S. Allen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dis, van S.J.

2011-01-01

Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

Interplay of prefrontal cortex and amygdala during extinction of drug seeking.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Valeria; Cartoni, Emilio; Latagliata, Emanuele Claudio; Puglisi-Allegra, Stefano; Baldassarre, Gianluca

2018-04-01

Extinction of Pavlovian conditioning is a complex process that involves brain regions such as the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the amygdala and the locus coeruleus. In particular, noradrenaline (NA) coming from the locus coeruleus has been recently shown to play a different role in two subregions of the mPFC, the prelimbic (PL) and the infralimbic (IL) regions. How these regions interact in conditioning and subsequent extinction is an open issue. We studied these processes using two approaches: computational modelling and NA manipulation in a conditioned place preference paradigm (CPP) in mice. In the computational model, NA in PL and IL causes inputs arriving to these regions to be amplified, thus allowing them to modulate learning processes in amygdala. The model reproduces results from studies involving depletion of NA from PL, IL, or both in CPP. In addition, we simulated new experiments of NA manipulations in mPFC, making predictions on the possible results. We searched the parameters of the model and tested the robustness of the predictions by performing a sensitivity analysis. We also present an empirical experiment where, in accord with the model, a double depletion of NA from both PL and IL in CPP with amphetamine impairs extinction. Overall the proposed model, supported by anatomical, physiological, and behavioural data, explains the differential role of NA in PL and IL and opens up the possibility to understand extinction mechanisms more in depth and hence to aid the development of treatments for disorders such as addiction.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John J Wiens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations, contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%, in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%, and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%. Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Extinction maps toward the Milky Way bulge: Two-dimensional and three-dimensional tests with apogee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schultheis, M. [Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, CNRS, Observatoire de Côte d' Azur, Laboratoire Lagrange, 06304 Nice Cedex 4 (France); Zasowski, G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Allende Prieto, C. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Calle Vía Láctea s/n, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Anders, F.; Chiappini, C. [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Beaton, R. L.; García Pérez, A. E.; Majewski, S. R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States); Beers, T. C. [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Bizyaev, D. [Apache Point Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Frinchaboy, P. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, TCU Box 298840, Fort Worth, TX 76129 (United States); Ge, J. [Astronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Hearty, F.; Schneider, D. P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Holtzman, J. [New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Muna, D. [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Nidever, D. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Shetrone, M., E-mail: mathias.schultheis@oca.eu, E-mail: gail.zasowski@gmail.com [McDonald Observatory, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (United States)

2014-07-01

Galactic interstellar extinction maps are powerful and necessary tools for Milky Way structure and stellar population analyses, particularly toward the heavily reddened bulge and in the midplane. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining reliable extinction measures and distances for a large number of stars that are independent of these maps, tests of their accuracy and systematics have been limited. Our goal is to assess a variety of photometric stellar extinction estimates, including both two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps, using independent extinction measures based on a large spectroscopic sample of stars toward the Milky Way bulge. We employ stellar atmospheric parameters derived from high-resolution H-band Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectra, combined with theoretical stellar isochrones, to calculate line-of-sight extinction and distances for a sample of more than 2400 giants toward the Milky Way bulge. We compare these extinction values to those predicted by individual near-IR and near+mid-IR stellar colors, two-dimensional bulge extinction maps, and three-dimensional extinction maps. The long baseline, near+mid-IR stellar colors are, on average, the most accurate predictors of the APOGEE extinction estimates, and the two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps derived from different stellar populations along different sightlines show varying degrees of reliability. We present the results of all of the comparisons and discuss reasons for the observed discrepancies. We also demonstrate how the particular stellar atmospheric models adopted can have a strong impact on this type of analysis, and discuss related caveats.

Extinction maps toward the Milky Way bulge: Two-dimensional and three-dimensional tests with apogee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultheis, M.; Zasowski, G.; Allende Prieto, C.; Anders, F.; Chiappini, C.; Beaton, R. L.; García Pérez, A. E.; Majewski, S. R.; Beers, T. C.; Bizyaev, D.; Frinchaboy, P. M.; Ge, J.; Hearty, F.; Schneider, D. P.; Holtzman, J.; Muna, D.; Nidever, D.; Shetrone, M.

2014-01-01

Galactic interstellar extinction maps are powerful and necessary tools for Milky Way structure and stellar population analyses, particularly toward the heavily reddened bulge and in the midplane. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining reliable extinction measures and distances for a large number of stars that are independent of these maps, tests of their accuracy and systematics have been limited. Our goal is to assess a variety of photometric stellar extinction estimates, including both two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps, using independent extinction measures based on a large spectroscopic sample of stars toward the Milky Way bulge. We employ stellar atmospheric parameters derived from high-resolution H-band Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectra, combined with theoretical stellar isochrones, to calculate line-of-sight extinction and distances for a sample of more than 2400 giants toward the Milky Way bulge. We compare these extinction values to those predicted by individual near-IR and near+mid-IR stellar colors, two-dimensional bulge extinction maps, and three-dimensional extinction maps. The long baseline, near+mid-IR stellar colors are, on average, the most accurate predictors of the APOGEE extinction estimates, and the two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps derived from different stellar populations along different sightlines show varying degrees of reliability. We present the results of all of the comparisons and discuss reasons for the observed discrepancies. We also demonstrate how the particular stellar atmospheric models adopted can have a strong impact on this type of analysis, and discuss related caveats.

Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunning, Christian E; Wearing, Helen J

2013-08-01

Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Stress and Fear Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Maren, Stephen; Holmes, Andrew

2016-01-01

Stress has a critical role in the development and expression of many psychiatric disorders, and is a defining feature of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Stress also limits the efficacy of behavioral therapies aimed at limiting pathological fear, such as exposure therapy. Here we examine emerging evidence that stress impairs recovery from trauma by impairing fear extinction, a form of learning thought to underlie the suppression of trauma-related fear memories. We describe the major structural and functional abnormalities in brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to stress, including the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus, which may underlie stress-induced impairments in extinction. We also discuss some of the stress-induced neurochemical and molecular alterations in these brain regions that are associated with extinction deficits, and the potential for targeting these changes to prevent or reverse impaired extinction. A better understanding of the neurobiological basis of stress effects on extinction promises to yield novel approaches to improving therapeutic outcomes for PTSD and other anxiety and trauma-related disorders. PMID:26105142

Temporal specificity of extinction in autoshaping.

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, Michael R; Yang, Cynthia; Ohyama, Tatsuya; Balsam, Peter D

2004-07-01

Three experiments investigated the effects of varying the conditioned stimulus (CS) duration between training and extinction. Ring doves (Streptopelia risoria) were autoshaped on a fixed CS-unconditioned stimulus (US) interval and extinguished with CS presentations that were longer, shorter, or the same as the training duration. During a subsequent test session, the training CS duration was reintroduced. Results suggest that the cessation of responding during an extinction session is controlled by generalization of excitation between the training and extinction CSs and by the number of nonreinforced CS presentations. Transfer of extinction to the training CS is controlled by the similarity between the extinction and training CSs. Extinction learning is temporally specific. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

The silent mass extinction of insect herbivores in biodiversity hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto

2009-12-01

Habitat loss is silently leading numerous insects to extinction. Conservation efforts, however, have not been designed specifically to protect these organisms, despite their ecological and evolutionary significance. On the basis of species-host area equations, parameterized with data from the literature and interviews with botanical experts, I estimated the number of specialized plant-feeding insects (i.e., monophages) that live in 34 biodiversity hotspots and the number committed to extinction because of habitat loss. I estimated that 795,971-1,602,423 monophagous insect species live in biodiversity hotspots on 150,371 endemic plant species, which is 5.3-10.6 monophages per plant species. I calculated that 213,830-547,500 monophagous species are committed to extinction in biodiversity hotspots because of reduction of the geographic range size of their endemic hosts. I provided rankings of biodiversity hotspots on the basis of estimated richness of monophagous insects and on estimated number of extinctions of monophagous species. Extinction rates were predicted to be higher in biodiversity hotspots located along strong environmental gradients and on archipelagos, where high spatial turnover of monophagous species along the geographic distribution of their endemic plants is likely. The results strongly support the overall strategy of selecting priority conservation areas worldwide primarily on the basis of richness of endemic plants. To face the global decline of insect herbivores, one must expand the coverage of the network of protected areas and improve the richness of native plants on private lands.

Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

Science.gov (United States)

Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

2007-12-01

A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth’s Greatest Mass Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.; Ruta, Marcello

2016-04-01

Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises.

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

Trajectories of Late Permian – Jurassic radiolarian extinction rates: no evidence for an end-Triassic mass extinction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Kiessling

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The hypothesis that ocean acidification was a proximate trigger of the marine end-Triassic mass extinction rests on the assumption that taxa that strongly invest in the secretion of calcium-carbonate skeletons were significantly more affected by the crisis than other taxa. An argument against this hypothesis is the great extinction toll of radiolarians that has been reported from work on local sections. Radiolarians have siliceous tests and thus should be less affected by ocean acidification. We compiled taxonomically vetted occurrences of late Permian and Mesozoic radiolarians and analyzed extinction dynamics of radiolarian genera. Although extinction rates were high at the end of the Triassic, there is no evidence for a mass extinction in radiolarians but rather significantly higher background extinction in the Triassic than in the Jurassic. Although the causes for this decline in background extinction levels remain unclear, the lack of a major evolutionary response to the end-Triassic event, gives support for the hypothesis that ocean acidification was involved in the dramatic extinctions of many calcifying taxa. doi:10.1002/mmng.201000017

Contingency Awareness Shapes Acquisition and Extinction of Emotional Responses in a Conditioning Model of Pain-Related Fear.

Science.gov (United States)

Labrenz, Franziska; Icenhour, Adriane; Benson, Sven; Elsenbruch, Sigrid

2015-01-01

As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies. In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US) were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS(+)) while another cue (CS(-)) was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analog scales (VAS). Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low vs. high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS(+) and increased positive responses to CS(-) when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS(+) and CS

Contingency awareness shapes acquisition and extinction of emotional responses in a conditioning model of pain-related fear

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franziska eLabrenz

2015-11-01

Full Text Available As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically-significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies.In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS+ while another cue (CS- was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analogue scales. Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low versus high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS+ and increased positive responses to CS- when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS+ and

Constraints on Enhanced Extinction Resulting from Extinction Treatment in the Presence of an Added Excitor

Science.gov (United States)

Urcelay, Gonzalo P.; Lipatova, Olga; Miller, Ralph R.

2009-01-01

Three Pavlovian fear conditioning experiments with rats as subjects explored the effect of extinction in the presence of a concurrent excitor. Our aim was to explore this particular treatment, documented in previous studies to deepen extinction, with novel control groups to shed light on the processes involved in extinction. Relative to subjects…

Comment on the extinct paradox

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, D.M.

1983-11-01

The extinction paradox is a contradiction between geometrical optics results which predict that at high frequencies the scattering cross section of an object should equal its geometrical cross section and rigorous scattering theory which shows that at high frequencies the scattering cross section approaches twice the geometrical cross section of the object. Confusion about the reason for this paradox persists today even though the nature of the paradox was correctly identified many years ago by Brillouin. The resolution of the paradox is restated and illustrated with an example, and then the implications to the interpretation of scattering cross sections are identified

Extinction of H II regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Israel, F.P.; Kennicutt, R.C.

1980-01-01

Visual extinction of H II regions in nine nearby galaxies as derived from the ratio of the radio continuum emission to H-alpha emission is systematically larger than visual extinction deduced from the Balmer lines alone, if one assumes a value Av/E(B-V) 3. An optically-limited sample of about 30 extragalactic H II regions has a mean extinction of 1.7 m in the visual while about 1.2 m is not seen in the reddening of the Balmer lines. Both reddening and extinction decreases with increasing galactic radius, at least for M33 and M101

The ethics of reviving long extinct species.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandler, Ronald

2014-04-01

There now appears to be a plausible pathway for reviving species that have been extinct for several decades, centuries, or even millennia. I conducted an ethical analysis of de-extinction of long extinct species. I assessed several possible ethical considerations in favor of pursuing de-extinction: that it is a matter of justice; that it would reestablish lost value; that it would create new value; and that society needs it as a conservation last resort. I also assessed several possible ethical arguments against pursuing de-extinction: that it is unnatural; that it could cause animal suffering; that it could be ecologically problematic or detrimental to human health; and that it is hubristic. There are reasons in favor of reviving long extinct species, and it can be ethically acceptable to do so. However, the reasons in favor of pursuing de-extinction do not have to do with its usefulness in species conservation; rather, they concern the status of revived species as scientific and technological achievements, and it would be ethically problematic to promote de-extinction as a significant conservation strategy, because it does not prevent species extinctions, does not address the causes of extinction, and could be detrimental to some species conservation efforts. Moreover, humanity does not have a responsibility or obligation to pursue de-extinction of long extinct species, and reviving them does not address any urgent problem. Therefore, legitimate ecological, political, animal welfare, legal, or human health concerns associated with a de-extinction (and reintroduction) must be thoroughly addressed for it to be ethically acceptable. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Immediate Extinction Causes a Less Durable Loss of Performance than Delayed Extinction following Either Fear or Appetitive Conditioning

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

2008-01-01

Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In…

Featured Image: Extinction in Our Inner Galaxy

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-11-01

In this map of the innermost galaxy, which spans only a few square degrees at the Milky Ways center, we can seethe locations of more than 31 million objects obtained from the VISTA Variables in the Va Lctea (VVV) survey. This near-infrared atlas traces stellar populations in the inner Milky Way that are dimmed and reddened by interstellar dust and gas a process known as extinction in a predictable way. Led by Javier Alonso-Garca (University of Antofagasta and the Millennium Institute of Astrophysics in Chile), a team of scientists has now used the VVV measurements of these stars to better understand the distribution of gas and dust that causes extinction in our inner galaxy particularly in the most central, highly reddened, and crowded areas of the Milky Way. For more information, check out the paper below.CitationJavier Alonso-Garca et al 2017 ApJL 849 L13. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa92c3

Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, L.W.; Alvarez, W.; Asaro, F.; Michel, H.V.

1980-01-01

Platinum metals are depleted in the earth's crust relative to their cosmic abundance; concentrations of these elements in deep-sea sediments may thus indicate influxes of extraterrestrial material. Deep-sea limestones exposed in Italy, Denmark, and New Zealand show iridium increases of about 30, 160, and 20 times, respectively, above the background level at precisely the time of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions, 65 million years ago. Reasons are given to indicate that this iridium is of extraterrestrial origin, but did not come from a nearby supernova. A hypothesis is suggested which accounts for the extinctions and the iridium observations. Impact of a large earth-crossing asteroid would inject about 60 times the object's mass into the atmosphere as pulverized rock; a fraction of this dust would stay in the stratosphere for several years and be distributed worldwide. The resulting darkness would suppress photosynthesis, and the expected biological consequences match quite closely the extinctions observed in the paleontological record. One prediction of this hypothesis has been verified: the chemical composition of the boundary clay, which is thought to come from the stratospheric dust, is markedly different from that of clay mixed with the Cretaceous and Tertiary limestones, which are chemically similar to each other. Four different independent estimates of the diameter of the asteroid give values that lie in the range 10 +- 4 kilometers

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Peñaranda, Diego A; Simonetti, Javier A

2015-06-01

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large-sized taxa were under decline, whereas small-sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data-deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species-by-species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Decline and local extinction of Fucales in French Riviera: the harbinger of future extinctions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. THIBAUT

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The French Riviera is one of the Mediterranean areas that has been longest and most thoroughly impacted by human activities. Fucales are long-lived, large-sized brown algae that constitute a good model for studying human impact on species diversity. We gathered all historical data (literature and herbarium vouchers, since the early 19th century, to reconstruct their distribution. The current distribution was established from a 7-year (2007-2013 survey of the 212-km shoreline (1/2 500 map, by means of boating, snorkelling and scuba diving. Overall, 18 taxa of Cystoseira and Sargassum have been reported. Upon comparison with historical data, 5 taxa were no longer observed (C. elegans, C. foeniculacea f. latiramosa, C. squarrosa, C. spinosa var. spinosa and S. hornschuchii while C. jabukae, previously unrecorded, was observed. In addition to these  taxa, probably extinct at a local scale, some taxa had suffered a dramatic decline (C. barbata f. barbata, C. crinita, C. spinosa var. compressa and S. acinarium or become nearly extinct (C. foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa. Three of them, which played in the past significant functional roles in coastal communities, can be considered as functionally extinct. Possible causes of decline and local extinction are discussed. A similar situation has already been reported, although at a much more local scale, in a variety of Mediterranean localities. The question therefore arises about the status of Fucales species in the Mediterranean: are some species on the brink of extinction? Is their extinction at the scale of the French Riviera the harbinger of their extinction Mediterranean–wide?

Behavioral tagging of extinction learning.

Science.gov (United States)

de Carvalho Myskiw, Jociane; Benetti, Fernando; Izquierdo, Iván

2013-01-15

Extinction of contextual fear in rats is enhanced by exposure to a novel environment at 1-2 h before or 1 h after extinction training. This effect is antagonized by administration of protein synthesis inhibitors anisomycin and rapamycin into the hippocampus, but not into the amygdala, immediately after either novelty or extinction training, as well as by the gene expression blocker 5,6-dichloro-1-beta-D-ribofuranosylbenzimidazole administered after novelty training, but not after extinction training. Thus, this effect can be attributed to a mechanism similar to synaptic tagging, through which long-term potentiation can be enhanced by other long-term potentiations or by exposure to a novel environment in a protein synthesis-dependent fashion. Extinction learning produces a tag at the appropriate synapses, whereas novelty learning causes the synthesis of plasticity-related proteins that are captured by the tag, strengthening the synapses that generated this tag.

Open-field exposure facilitates consummatory extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Justel, Nadia; Psyrdellis, Mariana; Pautassi, Ricardo M

2016-12-07

During extinction, the organism learns that a conditioned stimulus or a conditioned response is no longer associated with an unconditioned stimulus, and as a consequence, a decrement in the response is presented. The exposure to novel situations (e.g. exploration of a novel open field) has been used widely to modulate (i.e. either enhance or deteriorate) learning and memory. The aim of the present study was to test whether open-field exposure could modulate consummatory extinction. The results indicated that open-field exposure accelerated the extinction response (i.e. experimental animals provided novelty exposure had lower consummatory behavior than control animals) when applied before - but not after - the first extinction trial, or when applied before the second extinction trial. The results suggest that environmental treatments such as novelty exposure provide a valuable, nonpharmacological alternative to potentially modulate extinction processes.

Amount of fear extinction changes its underlying mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Bobae; Kim, Jihye; Park, Kyungjoon; Lee, Sukwon; Song, Sukwoon; Choi, Sukwoo

2017-07-03

There has been a longstanding debate on whether original fear memory is inhibited or erased after extinction. One possibility that reconciles this uncertainty is that the inhibition and erasure mechanisms are engaged in different phases (early or late) of extinction. In this study, using single-session extinction training and its repetition (multiple-session extinction training), we investigated the inhibition and erasure mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex and amygdala of rats, where neural circuits underlying extinction reside. The inhibition mechanism was prevalent with single-session extinction training but faded when single-session extinction training was repeated. In contrast, the erasure mechanism became prevalent when single-session extinction training was repeated. Moreover, ablating the intercalated neurons of amygdala, which are responsible for maintaining extinction-induced inhibition, was no longer effective in multiple-session extinction training. We propose that the inhibition mechanism operates primarily in the early phase of extinction training, and the erasure mechanism takes over after that.

Orbitofrontal cortex inactivation impairs between- but not within-session Pavlovian extinction: an associative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Panayi, Marios C; Killcross, Simon

2014-02-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is argued to be the neural locus of Pavlovian outcome expectancies. Reinforcement learning theories argue that extinction learning in Pavlovian procedures is caused by the discrepancy between the expected value of the outcome (US) that is elicited by a predictive stimulus (CS), and the lack of experienced US. If the OFC represents Pavlovian outcome expectancies that are necessary for extinction learning, then disrupting OFC function prior to extinction training should impair extinction learning. This was tested. In experiment 1, Long Evans rats received infusions of saline or muscimol targeting the lateral OFC prior to three appetitive Pavlovian extinction sessions. Muscimol infused into the OFC disrupted between-session but not within-session extinction behaviour. This finding was not due to muscimol infusions disrupting the memory consolidation process per se as there was no effect of muscimol infusion when administered immediately post session (experiment 2). These findings support a role for the OFC in representing outcome expectancies that are necessary for learning. A number of ways in which disrupting outcome expectancy information might block learning will be discussed in the context of traditional associative learning theories and the associative structures they depend on. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disruptive selection and bet-hedging in planktonic Foraminifera: Shell morphology as predictor of extinctions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel F. G. Weinkauf

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Extinction is a remarkably difficult phenomenon to study under natural conditions. This is because the outcome of stress exposure and associated fitness reduction is not known until the extinction occurs and it remains unclear whether there is any phenotypic reaction of the exposed population that can be used to predict its fate. Here we take advantage of the fossil record, where the ecological outcome of stress exposure is known. Specifically, we analyze shell morphology of planktonic Foraminifera in sediment samples from the Mediterranean, during an interval preceding local extinctions. In two species representing different plankton habitats, we observe shifts in trait state and decrease in variance in association with non-terminal stress, indicating stabilizing selection. At terminal stress levels, immediately before extinction, we observe increased growth asymmetry and trait variance, indicating disruptive selection and bet-hedging. The pre-extinction populations of both species show a combination of trait states and trait variance distinct from all populations exposed to non-terminal levels of stress. This finding indicates that the phenotypic history of a population may allow the detection of threshold levels of stress, likely to lead to extinction. It is thus an alternative to population dynamics in studying and monitoring natural population ecology.

Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

2018-01-12

Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

Extinction of Chained Instrumental Behaviors: Effects of Procurement Extinction on Consumption Responding

Science.gov (United States)

Thrailkill, Eric A.; Bouton, Mark E.

2015-01-01

Instrumental behavior often consists of sequences or chains of responses that minimally include procurement behaviors that enable subsequent consumption behaviors. In such chains, behavioral units are linked by access to one another and eventually to a primary reinforcer, such as food or a drug. The present experiments examined the effects of extinguishing procurement responding on consumption responding after training of a discriminated heterogeneous instrumental chain. Rats learned to make a procurement response (e.g., pressing a lever) in the presence of a distinctive discriminative stimulus; making that response led to the presentation of a second discriminative stimulus that set the occasion for a consumption response (e.g., pulling a chain), which then produced a food-pellet reinforcer. Experiment 1 showed that extinction of either the full procurement-consumption chain or procurement alone weakened the consumption response tested in isolation. Experiment 2 replicated the procurement extinction effect and further demonstrated that the opportunity to make the procurement response, as opposed to simple exposure to the procurement stimulus alone, was required. In Experiment 3, rats learned 2 distinct discriminated heterogeneous chains; extinction of 1 procurement response specifically weakened the consumption response that had been associated with it. The results suggest that learning to inhibit the procurement response may produce extinction of consumption responding through mediated extinction. The experiments suggest the importance of an associative analysis of instrumental behavior chains. PMID:25915751

Extinction of conditioned fear is better learned and recalled in the morning than in the evening.

Science.gov (United States)

Pace-Schott, Edward F; Spencer, Rebecca M C; Vijayakumar, Shilpa; Ahmed, Nafis A K; Verga, Patrick W; Orr, Scott P; Pitman, Roger K; Milad, Mohammed R

2013-11-01

Sleep helps emotional memories consolidate and may promote generalization of fear extinction memory. We examined whether extinction learning and memory might differ in the morning and evening due, potentially, to circadian and/or sleep-homeostatic factors. Healthy men (N = 109) in 6 groups completed a 2-session protocol. In Session 1, fear conditioning was followed by extinction learning. Partial reinforcement with mild electric shock produced conditioned skin conductance responses (SCRs) to 2 differently colored lamps (CS+), but not a third color (CS-), within the computer image of a room (conditioning context). One CS+ (CS + E) but not the other (CS + U) was immediately extinguished by un-reinforced presentations in a different room (extinction context). Delay durations of 3 h (within AM or PM), 12 h (morning-to-evening or evening-to-morning) or 24 h (morning-to-morning or evening-to-evening) followed. In Session 2, extinction recall and contextual fear renewal were tested. We observed no significant effects of the delay interval on extinction memory but did observe an effect of time-of-day. Fear extinction was significantly better if learned in the morning (p = .002). Collapsing across CS + type, there was smaller morning differential SCR at both extinction recall (p = .003) and fear renewal (p = .005). Morning extinction recall showed better generalization from the CS + E to CS + U with the response to the CS + U significantly larger than to the CS + E only in the evening (p = .028). Thus, extinction is learned faster and its memory is better generalized in the morning. Cortisol and testosterone showed the expected greater salivary levels in the morning when higher testosterone/cortisol ratio also predicted better extinction learning. Circadian factors may promote morning extinction. Alternatively, evening homeostatic sleep pressure may impede extinction and favor recall of conditioned fear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal properties of fear extinction--does time matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Golkar, Armita; Bellander, Martin; Öhman, Arne

2013-02-01

Fear extinction can be defined as the weakening of the expression of a conditioned response (CR) by extended experience of nonreinforcement. Conceptually, two distinct models have been invoked to account for extinction. R. A. Rescorla and A. R. Wagner (1972, A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement, in A. H. B. W. F. Prokasy (Ed.), Classical conditioning: II. Current research and theory, pp. 64-99, New York, NY, Appleton-Century-Crofts) postulated that the number of exposure trials is the primary determinant of CR decrement, whereas C. R. Gallistel and J. Gibbon (2000, Time, rate, and conditioning, Psychological Review, Vol. 107, pp. 289-344) proposed that the decisive event is the cumulated exposure time to the nonreinforced conditioned stimulus (CS) elapsed after the last CS reinforcement. We evaluated these two accounts in a human differential fear conditioning study in which CR was measured with the fear-potentiated startle response. Cumulated duration of nonreinforcement fails to explain our findings, whereas the number of trials appeared critical. In fact, many CS trials with a duration shorter than the acquisition CS duration facilitated within-session extinction, but this effect did not predict the recovery of fear. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Ultraviolet extinction in M-supergiant circumstellar envelopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buss, R.H. Jr.; Snow, T.P. Jr.

1986-01-01

Using International Ultraviolet (IUS) archival low-dispersion spectra, ultraviolet spectral extinctions were derived for the circumstellar envelopes of two M supergiants: HD 60414 and HD 213310. The observed stellar systems belong to a class of widely-separated spectroscopic binaries that are called VV Cephei stars. The total extinction was calculated by dividing the reddened fluxes with unreddened comparison fluxes of similar stars (g B2.5 for HD 213310 and a normalized s+B3 for HD 60414) from the reference atlas. After substracting the interstellar extinctions, which were estimated from the E(B-V) reddening of nearby stars, the resultant circumstellar extinctions were normalized at about 3.5 inverse microns. Not only is the 2175 A extinction bump absent in the circumstellar extinctions, but the far-ultraviolet extinction rise is also absent. The rather flat, ultraviolet extinction curves were interpreted as signatures of a population of noncarbonaceous, oxygen-rich grains with diameters larger than the longest observed wavelength

Mass extinctions: Ecological selectivity and primary production

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, Melissa Clark; Thayer, Charles W.

1991-09-01

If mass extinctions were caused by reduced primary productivity, then extinctions should be concentrated among animals with starvation-susceptible feeding modes, active lifestyles, and high-energy budgets. The stratigraphic ranges (by stage) of 424 genera of bivalves and 309 genera of articulate brachiopods suggest that there was an unusual reduction of primary productivity at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary extinction. For bivalves at the K/T, there were (1) selective extinction of suspension feeders and other susceptible trophic categories relative to deposit feeders and other resistant categories, and (2) among suspension feed-ers, selective extinction of bivalves with active locomotion. During the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) extinction and Jurassic background time, extinction rates among suspension feeders were greater for articulate brachiopods than for bivalves. But during the K/T event, extinction rates of articulates and suspension-feeding bivalves equalized, possibly because the low-energy budgets of articulates gave them an advantage when food was scarce.

3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine facilitates fear extinction learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, M B; Andero, R; Ressler, K J; Howell, L L

2015-09-15

Acutely administered 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, 'ecstasy') has been proposed to have long-term positive effects on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms when combined with psychotherapy. No preclinical data support a mechanistic basis for these claims. Given the persistent nature of psychotherapeutic gains facilitated by MDMA, we hypothesized that MDMA improves fear extinction learning, a key process in exposure-based therapies for PTSD. In these experiments, mice were first exposed to cued fear conditioning and treated with drug vehicle or MDMA before extinction training 2 days later. MDMA was administered systemically and also directly targeted to brain structures known to contribute to extinction. In addition to behavioral measures of extinction, changes in mRNA levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf) and Fos were measured after MDMA treatment and extinction. MDMA (7.8 mg kg(-1)) persistently and robustly enhanced long-term extinction when administered before extinction training. MDMA increased the expression of Fos in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), whereas increases in Bdnf expression were observed only in the amygdala after extinction training. Extinction enhancements were recapitulated when MDMA (1 μg) was infused directly into the basolateral complex of the amygdala (BLA), and enhancement was abolished when BDNF signaling was inhibited before extinction. These findings suggest that MDMA enhances fear memory extinction through a BDNF-dependent mechanism, and that MDMA may be a useful adjunct to exposure-based therapies for PTSD and other anxiety disorders characterized by altered fear learning.

Elucidating the mechanisms of fear extinction in developing animals: a special case of NMDA receptor-independent extinction in adolescent rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Bisby, Madelyne A; Baker, Kathryn D; Richardson, Rick

2018-04-01

NMDA receptors (NMDARs) are considered critical for the consolidation of extinction but recent work challenges this assumption. Namely, NMDARs are not required for extinction retention in infant rats as well as when extinction training occurs for a second time (i.e., reextinction) in adult rats. In this study, a possible third instance of NMDAR-independent extinction was tested. Although adolescents typically exhibit impaired extinction retention, rats that are conditioned as juveniles and then given extinction training as adolescents (JuvCond-AdolesExt) have good extinction retention. Unexpectedly, this good extinction retention is not associated with an up-regulation of a synaptic plasticity marker in the medial prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in extinction consolidation. In the current study, rats received either the noncompetitive NMDAR antagonist MK801 (0.1 mg/kg, s.c.) or saline before extinction training. In several experiments, rats conditioned and extinguished as juveniles, adolescents, or adults exhibited impaired extinction retention after MK801 compared to saline, but this effect was not observed in JuvCond-AdolesExt rats. Further experiments ruled out several alternative explanations for why NMDAR antagonism did not affect extinction retention in adolescents extinguishing fear learned as a juvenile. These results illustrate yet another circumstance in which NMDARs are not required for successful extinction retention and highlight the complexity of fear inhibition across development. © 2018 Bisby et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

An investigation of the interstellar extinction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roche, P.F.; Aitken, D.K.; Melbourne Univ., Point Cook

1984-01-01

The 10 μm extinction towards six WC8 or WC9 Wolf-Rayet stars is investigated. All objects show smooth dust emission suffering silicate absorption with depths well correlated with the extinction in the visible. The de-reddened spectra are well represented by emission from featureless grain components, possibly from iron or carbon grains. The extinction to the stars is found to be dominantly interstellar in origin with little extinction from the circumstellar shell. (author)

AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHAPES OF INTERSTELLAR EXTINCTION CURVES. VI. THE NEAR-IR EXTINCTION LAW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzpatrick, E. L.; Massa, D.

2009-01-01

We combine new observations from the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera of Survey with existing data to investigate the wavelength dependence of near-IR (NIR) extinction. Previous studies suggest a power law form for NIR extinction, with a 'universal' value of the exponent, although some recent observations indicate that significant sight line-to-sight line variability may exist. We show that a power-law model for the NIR extinction provides an excellent fit to most extinction curves, but that the value of the power, β, varies significantly from sight line to sight line. Therefore, it seems that a 'universal NIR extinction law' is not possible. Instead, we find that as β decreases, R(V) ≡ A(V)/E(B - V) tends to increase, suggesting that NIR extinction curves which have been considered 'peculiar' may, in fact, be typical for different R(V) values. We show that the power-law parameters can depend on the wavelength interval used to derive them, with the β increasing as longer wavelengths are included. This result implies that extrapolating power-law fits to determine R(V) is unreliable. To avoid this problem, we adopt a different functional form for NIR extinction. This new form mimics a power law whose exponent increases with wavelength, has only two free parameters, can fit all of our curves over a longer wavelength baseline and to higher precision, and produces R(V) values which are consistent with independent estimates and commonly used methods for estimating R(V). Furthermore, unlike the power-law model, it gives R(V)s that are independent of the wavelength interval used to derive them. It also suggests that the relation R(V) = -1.36 E(K-V)/(E(B-V)) - 0.79 can estimate R(V) to ±0.12. Finally, we use model extinction curves to show that our extinction curves are in accord with theoretical expectations, and demonstrate how large samples of observational quantities can provide useful constraints on the grain properties.

A model of amygdala-hippocampal-prefrontal interaction in fear conditioning and extinction in animals

Science.gov (United States)

Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard. J.; Myers, Catherine E.

2012-01-01

Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus in classical conditioning to include interactions with the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. We apply the model to fear conditioning, in which animals learn physiological (e.g. heart rate) and behavioral (e.g. freezing) responses to stimuli that have been paired with a highly aversive event (e.g. electrical shock). The key feature of our model is that learning of these conditioned responses in the central nucleus of the amygdala is modulated by two separate processes, one from basolateral amygdala and signaling a positive prediction error, and one from the vmPFC, via the intercalated cells of the amygdala, and signaling a negative prediction error. In addition, we propose that hippocampal input to both vmPFC and basolateral amygdala is essential for contextual modulation of fear acquisition and extinction. The model is sufficient to account for a body of data from various animal fear conditioning paradigms, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, and context specificity effects. Consistent with studies on lesioned animals, our model shows that damage to the vmPFC impairs extinction, while damage to the hippocampus impairs extinction in a different context (e.g., a different conditioning chamber from that used in initial training in animal experiments). We also discuss model limitations and predictions, including the effects of number of training trials on fear conditioning. PMID:23164732

Mass extinction efficiency and extinction hygroscopicity of ambient PM2.5 in urban China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Zhen; Ma, Xin; He, Yujie; Jiang, Jingkun; Wang, Xiaoliang; Wang, Yungang; Sheng, Li; Hu, Jiangkai; Yan, Naiqiang

2017-07-01

The ambient PM 2.5 pollution problem in China has drawn substantial international attentions. The mass extinction efficiency (MEE) and hygroscopicity factor (f(RH)) of PM 2.5 can be readily applied to study the impacts on atmospheric visibility and climate. The few previous investigations in China only reported results from pilot studies and are lack of spatial representativeness. In this study, hourly average ambient PM 2.5 mass concentration, relative humidity, and atmospheric visibility data from China national air quality and meteorological monitoring networks were retrieved and analyzed. It includes 24 major Chinese cities from nine city-clusters with the period of October 2013 to September 2014. Annual average extinction coefficient in urban China was 759.3±258.3Mm -1 , mainly caused by dry PM 2.5 (305.8.2±131.0Mm -1 ) and its hygroscopicity (414.6±188.1Mm -1 ). High extinction coefficient values were resulted from both high ambient PM 2.5 concentration (68.5±21.7µg/m 3 ) and high relative humidity (69.7±8.6%). The PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency varied from 2.87 to 6.64m 2 /g with an average of 4.40±0.84m 2 /g. The average extinction hygroscopic factor f(RH=80%) was 2.63±0.45. The levels of PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency and hygroscopic factor in China were in comparable range with those found in developed countries in spite of the significant diversities among all 24 cities. Our findings help to establish quantitative relationship between ambient extinction coefficient (visual range) and PM 2.5 & relative humidity. It will reduce the uncertainty of extinction coefficient estimation of ambient PM 2.5 in urban China which is essential for the research of haze pollution and climate radiative forcing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A general theory of impacts and mass extinctions, and the consequences of large-body impact on the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Rampino, M. R.

1994-01-01

The theory that large-body impacts are the primary cause of mass extinctions of life on the Earth now has a sound theoretical and observational foundation. A convergence of evidence suggests that the biosphere may be a sensitive detector of large impact events, which result in the recorded global mass extinction pulses. The astronomically observed flux of asteroids and comets in the neighborhood of the Earth, and the threshold impact size calculated to produce a global environment catastrophe, can be used to predict a time history of large impact events and related mass extinctions of life that agrees well with the record of approx. 24 extinction events in the last 540 m.y.

Mass extinctions and supernova explosions

OpenAIRE

Korschinek, Gunther

2016-01-01

A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, o...

Evidence and mapping of extinction debts for global forest-dwelling reptiles, amphibians and mammals

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Youhua; Peng, Shushi

2017-03-01

Evidence of extinction debts for the global distributions of forest-dwelling reptiles, mammals and amphibians was tested and the debt magnitude was estimated and mapped. By using different correlation tests and variable importance analysis, the results showed that spatial richness patterns for the three forest-dwelling terrestrial vertebrate groups had significant and stronger correlations with past forest cover area and other variables in the 1500 s, implying the evidence for extinction debts. Moreover, it was likely that the extinction debts have been partially paid, given that their global richness patterns were also significantly correlated with contemporary forest variables in the 2000 s (but the absolute magnitudes of the correlation coefficients were usually smaller than those calculated for historical forest variables). By utilizing species-area relationships, spatial extinction-debt magnitudes for the three vertebrate groups at the global scale were estimated and the hotspots of extinction debts were identified. These high-debt hotspots were generally situated in areas that did not spatially overlap with hotspots of species richness or high extinction-risk areas based on IUCN threatened status to a large extent. This spatial mismatch pattern suggested that necessary conservation efforts should be directed toward high-debt areas that are still overlooked.

Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

Science.gov (United States)

Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

2015-01-01

The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

The extinction of the dinosaurs.

Science.gov (United States)

Brusatte, Stephen L; Butler, Richard J; Barrett, Paul M; Carrano, Matthew T; Evans, David C; Lloyd, Graeme T; Mannion, Philip D; Norell, Mark A; Peppe, Daniel J; Upchurch, Paul; Williamson, Thomas E

2015-05-01

Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Noradrenergic stimulation modulates activation of extinction-related brain regions and enhances contextual extinction learning without affecting renewal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silke eLissek

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Renewal in extinction learning describes the recovery of an extinguished response if the extinction context differs from the context present during acquisition and recall. Attention may have a role in contextual modulation of behavior and contribute to the renewal effect, while noradrenaline is involved in attentional processing. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study we investigated the role of the noradrenergic system for behavioral and brain activation correlates of contextual extinction and renewal, with a particular focus upon hippocampus and ventromedial PFC, which have crucial roles in processing of renewal. Healthy human volunteers received a single dose of the NA reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine prior to extinction learning. During extinction of previously acquired cue-outcome associations, cues were presented in a novel context (ABA or in the acquisition context (AAA. In recall, all cues were again presented in the acquisition context. Atomoxetine participants (ATO showed significantly faster extinction compared to placebo (PLAC. However, atomoxetine did not affect renewal. Hippocampal activation was higher in ATO during extinction and recall, as was ventromedial PFC activation, except for ABA recall. Moreover, ATO showed stronger recruitment of insula, anterior cingulate, and dorsolateral/orbitofrontal PFC. Across groups, cingulate, hippocampus and vmPFC activity during ABA extinction correlated with recall performance, suggesting high relevance of these regions for processing the renewal effect. In summary, the noradrenergic system appears to be involved in the modification of established associations during extinction learning and thus has a role in behavioral flexibility. The assignment of an association to a context and the subsequent decision on an adequate response, however, presumably operate largely independently of noradrenergic mechanisms.

AESoP: Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer

Science.gov (United States)

Linford, Justin; McGraw, J.; Zimmer, P.; Ackermann, M.; Fitch, J.

2009-01-01

The Earth's atmosphere is a major obstruction to the precision and accuracy of ground-based photometry. The atmosphere removes light from astronomical objects both by absorption and scattering by constituent molecules, aerosols and clouds. These effects can change significantly over short time periods and over modest angles on the sky. To further understand these effects, the UNM Measurement Astrophysics Group has designed, built and recently deployed the Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer (AESoP), a 100mm objective grating spectrometer. By monitoring bright stars in sensibly the same direction as a larger photometric telescope is observing, AESoP will measure the wavelength-dependent extinction due to the Earth's atmosphere from 450nm to 900nm on time scales of approximately one minute. The collocated Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction (ALE) provides a high-precision monochromatic extinction measurement at 527nm. Knowing the extinction at a single wavelength allows us to pin the relative spectra generated by AESoP. These extinction spectra can then be integrated over the bandpass of the photometric telescope system to create real time corrections of observations. We present the design and construction of AESoP along with the preliminary results of our first combined observing campaign. This effort is our first step toward breaking the 1% photometry barrier. This project is funded by AFRL Grant FA9451-04-2-0355

Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

OpenAIRE

Aloosh, Arash

2014-01-01

In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ringma, Jeremy L; Wintle, Brendan; Fuller, Richard A; Fisher, Diana; Bode, Michael

2017-10-01

Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating extinction using unsupervised machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Meingast, Stefan; Lombardi, Marco; Alves, João

2017-05-01

Dust extinction is the most robust tracer of the gas distribution in the interstellar medium, but measuring extinction is limited by the systematic uncertainties involved in estimating the intrinsic colors to background stars. In this paper we present a new technique, Pnicer, that estimates intrinsic colors and extinction for individual stars using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. This new method aims to be free from any priors with respect to the column density and intrinsic color distribution. It is applicable to any combination of parameters and works in arbitrary numbers of dimensions. Furthermore, it is not restricted to color space. Extinction toward single sources is determined by fitting Gaussian mixture models along the extinction vector to (extinction-free) control field observations. In this way it becomes possible to describe the extinction for observed sources with probability densities, rather than a single value. Pnicer effectively eliminates known biases found in similar methods and outperforms them in cases of deep observational data where the number of background galaxies is significant, or when a large number of parameters is used to break degeneracies in the intrinsic color distributions. This new method remains computationally competitive, making it possible to correctly de-redden millions of sources within a matter of seconds. With the ever-increasing number of large-scale high-sensitivity imaging surveys, Pnicer offers a fast and reliable way to efficiently calculate extinction for arbitrary parameter combinations without prior information on source characteristics. The Pnicer software package also offers access to the well-established Nicer technique in a simple unified interface and is capable of building extinction maps including the Nicest correction for cloud substructure. Pnicer is offered to the community as an open-source software solution and is entirely written in Python.

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pt spectrum from proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khachatryan, Vardan [Yerevan Physcis Institute (Armenia); et al.,

2014-08-01

The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

Science.gov (United States)

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-09-01

National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

Frequency of decompression illness among recent and extinct mammals and "reptiles": a review

Science.gov (United States)

Carlsen, Agnete Weinreich

2017-08-01

The frequency of decompression illness was high among the extinct marine "reptiles" and very low among the marine mammals. Signs of decompression illness are still found among turtles but whales and seals are unaffected. In humans, the risk of decompression illness is five times increased in individuals with Patent Foramen Ovale; this condition allows blood shunting from the venous circuit to the systemic circuit. This right-left shunt is characteristic of the "reptile" heart, and it is suggested that this could contribute to the high frequency of decompression illness in the extinct reptiles.

MicroRNA-Mediated Rescue of Fear Extinction Memory by miR-144-3p in Extinction-Impaired Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Conor P; Li, Xiang; Maurer, Verena; Oberhauser, Michael; Gstir, Ronald; Wearick-Silva, Luis Eduardo; Viola, Thiago Wendt; Schafferer, Simon; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Whittle, Nigel; Hüttenhofer, Alexander; Bredy, Timothy W; Singewald, Nicolas

2017-06-15

MicroRNA (miRNA)-mediated control of gene expression suggests that miRNAs are interesting targets and/or biomarkers in the treatment of anxiety- and trauma-related disorders, where often memory-associated gene expression is adversely affected. The role of miRNAs in the rescue of impaired fear extinction was assessed using the 129S1/SvlmJ (S1) mouse model of impaired fear extinction. miRNA microarray analysis, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, fluorescent in situ hybridization, lentiviral overexpression, and Luciferase reporter assays were used to gain insight into the mechanisms underlying miRNA-mediated normalization of deficient fear extinction. Rescuing impaired fear extinction via dietary zinc restriction was associated with differential expression of miRNAs in the amygdala. One candidate, miR-144-3p, robustly expressed in the basolateral amygdala, showed specific extinction-induced, but not fear-induced, increased expression in both extinction-rescued S1 mice and extinction-intact C57BL/6 (BL6) mice. miR-144-3p upregulation and effects on subsequent behavioral adaption was assessed in S1 and BL6 mice. miR-144-3p overexpression in the basolateral amygdala rescued impaired fear extinction in S1 mice, led to enhanced fear extinction acquisition in BL6 mice, and furthermore protected against fear renewal in BL6 mice. miR-144-3p targets a number of genes implicated in the control of plasticity-associated signaling cascades, including Pten, Spred1, and Notch1. In functional interaction studies, we revealed that the miR-144-3p target, PTEN, colocalized with miR-144-3p in the basolateral amygdala and showed functional downregulation following successful fear extinction in S1 mice. These findings identify a fundamental role of miR-144-3p in the rescue of impaired fear extinction and suggest this miRNA as a viable target in developing novel treatments for posttraumatic stress disorder and related disorders. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological

Intergalactic extinction and the deceleration parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meinel, R.

1981-01-01

The deceleration parameter q 0 is calculated from the relation between apparent magnitudes m of the brightest galaxies in clusters and their redshifts z considering an intergalactic extinction. The calculation is valid for a Friedman universe, homogeneously filled with dust grains, assuming the extinction to be 0.5 mag at z = 1 and aΛ -1 -law of extinction (according to Oleak and Schmidt 1976). Using the m,z-values of Kristian, Sandage, and Westphal (1978) a formal value of q 0 approximately 2.1 is obtained instead of q 0 approximately 1.6 without consideration of intergalactic extinction. (author)

Gradual extinction prevents the return of fear: Implications for the discovery of state

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel Joseph Gershman

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Fear memories are notoriously difficult to erase, often recovering over time. The longstanding explanation for this finding is that, in extinction training, a new memory is formed that competes with the old one for expression but does not otherwise modify it. This explanation is at odds with traditional models of learning such as Rescorla-Wagner and reinforcement learning. A possible reconciliation that was recently suggested is that extinction training leads to the inference of a new state that is different from the state that was in effect in the original training. This solution, however, raises a new question: under what conditions are new states, or new memories formed? Theoretical accounts implicate persistent large prediction errors in this process. As a test of this idea, we reasoned that careful design of the reinforcement schedule during extinction training could reduce these prediction errors enough to prevent the formation of a new memory, while still decreasing reinforcement sufficiently to drive modification of the old fear memory. In two Pavlovian fear-conditioning experiments, we show that gradually reducing the frequency of aversive stimuli, rather than eliminating them abruptly, prevents the recovery of fear. This finding has important implications for theories of state discovery in reinforcement learning.

Climate predictors of late quaternary extinctions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nogués-Bravo, David; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Batra, Persaram

2010-01-01

Between 50,000 and 3,000 years before present (BP) 65% of mammal genera weighing over 44 kg went extinct, together with a lower proportion of small mammals. Why species went extinct in such large numbers is hotly debated. One of the arguments proposes that climate changes underlie Late Quaternary...... extinctions, but global quantitative evidence for this hypothesis is still lacking. We test the potential role of global climate change on the extinction of mammals during the Late Quaternary. Our results suggest that continents with the highest climate footprint values, in other words, with climate changes...... of greater magnitudes during the Late Quaternary, witnessed more extinctions than continents with lower climate footprint values, with the exception of South America. Our results are consistent across species with different body masses, reinforcing the view that past climate changes contributed to global...

Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

2018-01-01

from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

2016-03-01

Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Finnegan, Seth; Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Christian; Harper, David A. T.

2016-01-01

–Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed...... in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions...... between shifting climate zones and palaeobiogeography may also have been important. We test the latter hypothesis by estimating whether each genus would have been able to track habitats within its thermal tolerance range during the greenhouse–icehouse climate transition. Models including these estimates...

Impact Theory of Mass Extinctions and the Invertebrate Fossil Record

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Walter; Kauffman, Erle G.; Surlyk, Finn; Alvarez, Luis W.; Asaro, Frank; Michel, Helen V.

1984-03-01

There is much evidence that the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary was marked by a massive meteorite impact. Theoretical consideration of the consequences of such an impact predicts sharp extinctions in many groups of animals precisely at the boundary. Paleontological data clearly show gradual declines in diversity over the last 1 to 10 million years in various invertebrate groups. Reexamination of data from careful studies of the best sections shows that, in addition to undergoing the decline, four groups (ammonites, cheilostomate bryozoans, brachiopods, and bivalves) were affected by sudden truncations precisely at the iridium anomaly that marks the boundary. The paleontological record thus bears witness to terminal-Cretaceous extinctions on two time scales: a slow decline unrelated to the impact and a sharp truncation synchronous with and probably caused by the impact.

Development of fear acquisition and extinction in children: effects of age and anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Jovanovic, Tanja; Nylocks, Karin Maria; Gamwell, Kaitlyn L; Smith, Ami; Davis, Telsie A; Norrholm, Seth Davin; Bradley, Bekh

2014-09-01

Development of anxiety disorders is associated with neurobiological changes in areas that are a critical part of the fear neurocircuitry. Fear conditioning paradigms can offer insight into the mechanisms underlying the neurobiological ontogeny of anxiety. A small number of studies have focused on the effects of age and anxiety separately in school age children. The present study aimed to investigate these effects in 8-13 year old children with higher and lower trait anxiety. We examined differential fear conditioning and extinction using skin conductance responses and fear-potentiated startle in 60 children recruited from a low-income urban population. The results indicated that children under 10 years of age show poor discrimination of conditioned stimuli, and that anxiety increases fear responses during fear acquisition. After controlling for age and trauma exposure, fear-potentiated startle to the safety cue predicted child anxiety levels suggesting that impaired safety signal learning may be a risk factor for anxiety disorders in adulthood. Identifying risk phenotypes in children may provide opportunities for early intervention and prevention of illness. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precision Photometric Extinction Corrections from Direct Atmospheric Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

McGraw, John T.; Zimmer, P.; Linford, J.; Simon, T.; Measurement Astrophysics Research Group

2009-01-01

For decades astronomical extinction corrections have been accomplished using nightly mean extinction coefficients derived from Langley plots measured with the same telescope used for photometry. Because this technique results in lost time on program fields, observers only grudgingly made sporadic extinction measurements. Occasionally extinction corrections are not measured nightly but are made using tabulated mean monthly or even quarterly extinction coefficients. Any observer of the sky knows that Earth's atmosphere is an ever-changing fluid in which is embedded extinction sources ranging from Rayleigh (molecular) scattering to aerosol, smoke and dust scattering and absorption, to "just plain cloudy.” Our eyes also tell us that the type, direction and degree of extinction changes on time scales of minutes or less - typically shorter than many astronomical observations. Thus, we should expect that atmospheric extinction can change significantly during a single observation. Mean extinction coefficients might be well-defined nightly means, but those means have high variance because they do not accurately record the wavelength-, time-, and angle-dependent extinction actually affecting each observation. Our research group is implementing lidar measurements made in the direction of observation with one minute cadence, from which the absolute monochromatic extinction can be measured. Simultaneous spectrophotometry of nearby bright standard stars allows derivation and MODTRAN modeling atmospheric transmission as a function of wavelength for the atmosphere through which an observation is made. Application of this technique is demonstrated. Accurate real-time extinction measurements are an enabling factor for sub-1% photometry. This research is supported by NSF Grant 0421087 and AFRL Grant #FA9451-04-2-0355.

Interstellar extinction in the Large Magellanic Cloud

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nandy, K.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.

1981-01-01

A systematic investigation of interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet as a function of position in the Large Magellanic Cloud has been made from an enlarged sample of reddened and comparison stars distributed throughout the cloud. Except for one star SK-69-108, the most reddened star of our sample, the shape of the extinction curves for the LMC stars do not show significant variations. All curves show an increase in extinction towards 2200 A, but some have maxima near 2200 A, some near 1900 A. It has been shown that the feature of the extinction curve near 1900 A is caused by the mismatch of the stellar F III 1920 A feature. The strength of this 1920 A feature as a function of luminosity and spectral type has been determined. The extinction curves have been corrected for the mismatch of the 1920 feature and a single mean extinction curve for the LMC normalized to Asub(V) = 0 and Esub(B-V) = 1 is presented. For the same value of Esub(B-V) the LMC stars show the 2200 A feature weaker by a factor 2 as compared with the galactic stars. Higher extinction shortward of 2000 A in the LMC extinction curves than that in our Galaxy, as reported in earlier papers, is confirmed. (author)

Immediate extinction promotes the return of fear.

Science.gov (United States)

Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

2016-05-01

Accumulating evidence indicates that immediate extinction is less effective than delayed extinction in attenuating the return of fear. This line of fear conditioning research impacts the proposed onset of psychological interventions after threatening situations. In the present study, forty healthy men were investigated in a differential fear conditioning paradigm with fear acquisition in context A, extinction in context B, followed by retrieval testing in both contexts 24h later to test fear renewal. Differently coloured lights served as conditioned stimuli (CS): two CS (CS+) were paired with an electrical stimulation that served as unconditioned stimulus, the third CS was never paired (CS-). Extinction took place immediately after fear acquisition or 24h later. One CS+ was extinguished whereas the second CS+ remained unextinguished to control for different time intervals between fear acquisition and retrieval testing. Immediate extinction led to larger skin conductance responses during fear retrieval to both the extinguished and unextinguished CS relative to the CS-, indicating a stronger return of fear compared to delayed extinction. Taken together, immediate extinction is less potent than delayed extinction and is associated with a stronger renewal effect. Thus, the time-point of psychological interventions relative to the offset of threatening situations needs to be carefully considered to prevent relapses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosman, Renske C.; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might

Interstellar dust and extinction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathis, J.S.

1990-01-01

It is noted that the term interstellar dust refers to materials with rather different properties, and that the mean extinction law of Seaton (1979) or Savage and Mathis (1979) should be replaced by the expression given by Cardelli et al. (1989), using the appropriate value of total-to-selective extinction. The older laws were appropriate for the diffuse ISM but dust in clouds differs dramatically in its extinction law. Dust is heavily processed while in the ISM by being included within clouds and cycled back into the diffuse ISM many times during its lifetime. Hence, grains probably reflect only a trace of their origin, although meteoritic inclusions with isotopic anomalies demonstrate that some tiny particles survive intact from a supernova origin to the present. 186 refs

Mass extinction in poorly known taxa.

Science.gov (United States)

Régnier, Claire; Achaz, Guillaume; Lambert, Amaury; Cowie, Robert H; Bouchet, Philippe; Fontaine, Benoît

2015-06-23

Since the 1980s, many have suggested we are in the midst of a massive extinction crisis, yet only 799 (0.04%) of the 1.9 million known recent species are recorded as extinct, questioning the reality of the crisis. This low figure is due to the fact that the status of very few invertebrates, which represent the bulk of biodiversity, have been evaluated. Here we show, based on extrapolation from a random sample of land snail species via two independent approaches, that we may already have lost 7% (130,000 extinctions) of the species on Earth. However, this loss is masked by the emphasis on terrestrial vertebrates, the target of most conservation actions. Projections of species extinction rates are controversial because invertebrates are essentially excluded from these scenarios. Invertebrates can and must be assessed if we are to obtain a more realistic picture of the sixth extinction crisis.

Compound Stimulus Extinction Reduces Spontaneous Recovery in Humans

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Cesar A. O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design ("deepened extinction") shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately…

Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan-Hua Lin

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI, and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events.

Recent developments in the behavioural and pharmacological enhancement of extinction of drug seeking.

Science.gov (United States)

Chesworth, Rose; Corbit, Laura H

2017-01-01

One of the principal barriers to overcoming addiction is the propensity to relapse, even after months or years of abstinence. Relapse can be precipitated by cues and contexts associated with drug use; thus, decreasing the conditioned properties of these cues and contexts may assist in preventing relapse. The predictive power of drug cues and contexts can be reduced by repeatedly presenting them in the absence of the drug reinforcer, a process known as extinction. The potential of extinction to limit relapse has generated considerable interest and research over the past few decades. While pre-clinical animal models suggest extinction learning assists relapse prevention, treatment efficacy is often lacking when extinction learning principles are translated into clinical trials. Conklin and Tiffany (Addiction, 2002) suggest the lack of efficacy in clinical practice may be due to limited translation of procedures demonstrated through animal research and propose several methodological improvements to enhance extinction learning for drug addiction. This review will examine recent advances in the behavioural and pharmacological manipulation of extinction learning, based on research from pre-clinical models. In addition, the translation of pre-clinical findings-both those suggested by Conklin and Tiffany () and novel demonstrations from the past 13 years-into clinical trials and the efficacy of these methods in reducing craving and relapse, where available, will be discussed. Finally, we highlight areas where promising pre-clinical models have not yet been integrated into current clinical practice but, if applied, could improve upon existing behavioural and pharmacological methods. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

β-Adrenoceptor Blockade in the Basolateral Amygdala, But Not the Medial Prefrontal Cortex, Rescues the Immediate Extinction Deficit.

Science.gov (United States)

Giustino, Thomas F; Seemann, Jocelyn R; Acca, Gillian M; Goode, Travis D; Fitzgerald, Paul J; Maren, Stephen

2017-12-01

Early psychological interventions, such as exposure therapy, rely on extinction learning to reduce the development of stress- and trauma-related disorders. However, recent research suggests that extinction often fails to reduce fear when administered soon after trauma. This immediate extinction deficit (IED) may be due to stress-induced dysregulation of neural circuits involved in extinction learning. We have shown that systemic β-adrenoceptor blockade with propranolol rescues the IED, but impairs delayed extinction. Here we sought to determine the neural locus of these effects. Rats underwent auditory fear conditioning and then received either immediate (30 min) or delayed (24 h) extinction training. We used bilateral intracranial infusions of propranolol into either the infralimbic division of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) or the basolateral amygdala (BLA) to examine the effects of β-adrenoceptor blockade on immediate and delayed extinction learning. Interestingly, intra-BLA, but not intra-mPFC, propranolol rescued the IED; animals receiving intra-BLA propranolol prior to immediate extinction showed less spontaneous recovery of fear during extinction retrieval. Importantly, this was not due to impaired consolidation of the conditioning memory. In contrast, neither intra-BLA nor intra-mPFC propranolol affected delayed extinction learning. Overall, these data contribute to a growing literature suggesting dissociable roles for key nodes in the fear extinction circuit depending on the timing of extinction relative to conditioning. These data also suggest that heightened noradrenergic activity in the BLA underlies stress-induced extinction deficits. Propranolol may be a useful adjunct to behavioral therapeutic interventions in recently traumatized individuals who are at risk for developing trauma-related disorders.

Predicting the future impact of droughts on ungulate populations in arid and semi-arid environments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare Duncan

Full Text Available Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21(st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin E. Wood

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style. In our study, mothers reported their own gender roles and parenting styles as well as their children’s risk-taking and activities related to gender roles. The results were only partially consistent with the two theories, as the amount of risk-taking by sons and daughters did not differ significantly and risk-taking by daughters, but not sons, was positively related to mothers’ use of the authoritarian parenting style and the girls’ engagement in masculine activities. Risk-taking by sons was not predicted by any combination of mother-related variables. Overall, mothers who were higher in femininity used more authoritative and less authoritarian parenting styles. Theoretical implications as well as implications for predicting and reducing children’s risk-taking are discussed.

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-$p_T$ spectrum from proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV

CERN Document Server

Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Luyckx, Sten; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; Heracleous, Natalie; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Keaveney, James; Kim, Tae Jeong; Lowette, Steven; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dobur, Didar; Favart, Laurent; Gay, Arnaud; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Léonard, Alexandre; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Perniè, Luca; Reis, Thomas; Seva, Tomislav; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Crucy, Shannon; Dildick, Sven; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Klein, Benjamin; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Dos Reis Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Malbouisson, Helena; Malek, Magdalena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santaolalla, Javier; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Marinov, Andrey; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Plestina, Roko; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Yifei; Li, Qiang; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Mekterovic, Darko; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Favaro, Carlotta; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Nayak, Aruna; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Busson, Philippe; Charlot, Claude; Dahms, Torsten; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Filipovic, Nicolas; Florent, Alice; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Miné, Philippe; Mironov, Camelia; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Paganini, Pascal; Salerno, Roberto; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Aubin, Alexandre; Bloch, Daniel; Brom, Jean-Marie; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Van Hove, Pierre; Gadrat, Sébastien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Boudoul, Gaelle; Brochet, Sébastien; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fan, Jiawei; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Perries, Stephane; Ruiz Alvarez, José David; Sabes, David; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Xiao, Hong; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Bontenackels, Michael; Calpas, Betty; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Hindrichs, Otto; Klein, Katja; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Perieanu, Adrian; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Sprenger, Daniel; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Caudron, Julien; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Knutzen, Simon; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Weber, Martin; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Lingemann, Joschka; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Perchalla, Lars; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behr, Joerg; Behrenhoff, Wolf; Behrens, Ulf; Bell, Alan James; Bergholz, Matthias; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Choudhury, Somnath; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dooling, Samantha; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Flucke, Gero; Garay Garcia, Jasone; Geiser, Achim; Gunnellini, Paolo; Hauk, Johannes; Hellwig, Gregor; Hempel, Maria; Horton, Dean; Jung, Hannes; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kieseler, Jan; Kleinwort, Claus; Krücker, Dirk; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lipka, Katerina; Lobanov, Artur; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Novgorodova, Olga; Nowak, Friederike; Ntomari, Eleni; Perrey, Hanno; Pitzl, Daniel; Placakyte, Ringaile; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Ron, Elias; Sahin, Mehmet Özgür; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Saxena, Pooja; Schmidt, Ringo; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schröder, Matthias; Spannagel, Simon; Vargas Trevino, Andrea Del Rocio; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Blobel, Volker; Centis Vignali, Matteo; Erfle, Joachim; Garutti, Erika; Goebel, Kristin; Görner, Martin; Gosselink, Martijn; Haller, Johannes; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Lange, Jörn; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Ott, Jochen; Peiffer, Thomas; Pietsch, Niklas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Seidel, Markus; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Nürnberg, Andreas; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Ratnikov, Fedor; Röcker, Steffen; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Gouskos, Loukas; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Stiliaris, Efstathios; Aslanoglou, Xenofon; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Swain, Sanjay Kumar; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Dhingra, Nitish; Gupta, Ruchi; Kalsi, Amandeep Kaur; Kaur, Manjit; Mittal, Monika; Nishu, Nishu; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Kumar, Ajay; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Modak, Atanu; Mukherjee, Swagata; Roy, Debarati; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kailas, Swaminathan; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Dewanjee, Ram Krishna; Dugad, Shashikant; Ganguly, Sanmay; Ghosh, Saranya; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Kole, Gouranga; Kumar, Sanjeev; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Behnamian, Hadi; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Goldouzian, Reza; Jafari, Abideh; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Naseri, Mohsen; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Felcini, Marta; Grunewald, Martin; Abbrescia, Marcello; Barbone, Lucia; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Radogna, Raffaella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Singh, Gurpreet; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Zito, Giuseppe; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Codispoti, Giuseppe; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Perrotta, Andrea; Primavera, Federica; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Giordano, Ferdinando; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Gori, Valentina; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Ferro, Fabrizio; Lo Vetere, Maurizio; Robutti, Enrico; Tosi, Silvano; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Gerosa, Raffaele; Ghezzi, Alessio; Govoni, Pietro; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Marzocchi, Badder; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; Di Guida, Salvatore; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Dall'Osso, Martino; Dorigo, Tommaso; Galanti, Mario; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Giubilato, Piero; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Montecassiano, Fabio; Passaseo, Marina; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Vanini, Sara; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Romeo, Francesco; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Moon, Chang-Seong; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Vernieri, Caterina; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Grassi, Marco; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Soffi, Livia; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Casasso, Stefano; Costa, Marco; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Ortona, Giacomo; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Tamponi, Umberto; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Montanino, Damiana; Schizzi, Andrea; Umer, Tomo; Zanetti, Anna; Chang, Sunghyun; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Park, Hyangkyu; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Kim, Jae Yool; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kyong Sei; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Inkyu; Park, Sangnam; Ryu, Geonmo; Ryu, Min Sang; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Seo, Hyunkwan; Yu, Intae; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Reucroft, Steve; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khalid, Shoaib; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shah, Mehar Ali; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michał; Wolszczak, Weronika; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Dordevic, Milos; Ekmedzic, Marko; Milosevic, Jovan; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Merino, Gonzalo; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Senghi Soares, Mara; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Graziano, Alberto; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Bendavid, Joshua; Benhabib, Lamia; Benitez, Jose F; Bernet, Colin; Bianchi, Giovanni; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Bondu, Olivier; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Christiansen, Tim; Colafranceschi, Stefano; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Dobson, Marc; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Eugster, Jürg; Franzoni, Giovanni; Funk, Wolfgang; Giffels, Manuel; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Musella, Pasquale; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Perrozzi, Luca; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Plagge, Michael; Racz, Attila; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Sekmen, Sezen; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Steggemann, Jan; Stieger, Benjamin; Stoye, Markus; Treille, Daniel; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; König, Stefan; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Deisher, Amanda; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Meister, Daniel; Mohr, Niklas; Nägeli, Christoph; Nef, Pascal; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pauss, Felicitas; Peruzzi, Marco; Quittnat, Milena; Rebane, Liis; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Rossini, Marco; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Amsler, Claude; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Kilminster, Benjamin; Millan Mejias, Barbara; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Robmann, Peter; Snoek, Hella; Taroni, Silvia; Verzetti, Mauro; Yang, Yong; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Ferro, Cristina; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Kao, Kai-Yi; Lei, Yeong-Jyi; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Majumder, Devdatta; Petrakou, Eleni; Shi, Xin; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wilken, Rachel; Asavapibhop, Burin; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sogut, Kenan; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Mehmet; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Gamsizkan, Halil; Karapinar, Guler; Ocalan, Kadir; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Isildak, Bora; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Bahtiyar, Hüseyin; Barlas, Esra; Cankocak, Kerem; Vardarli, Fuat Ilkehan; Yücel, Mete; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Frazier, Robert; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Jacob, Jeson; Kreczko, Lukasz; Lucas, Chris; Meng, Zhaoxia; Newbold, Dave M; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Poll, Anthony; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Williams, Thomas; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Thea, Alessandro; Tomalin, Ian R; Womersley, William John; Worm, Steven; Baber, Mark; Bainbridge, Robert; Buchmuller, Oliver; Burton, Darren; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Cutajar, Michael; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Dunne, Patrick; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Futyan, David; Gilbert, Andrew; Hall, Geoffrey; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Kenzie, Matthew; Lane, Rebecca; Lucas, Robyn; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Malik, Sarah; Marrouche, Jad; Mathias, Bryn; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Martin, William; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Kasmi, Azeddine; Liu, Hongxuan; Scarborough, Tara; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Heister, Arno; Lawson, Philip; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; Sperka, David; St John, Jason; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Christopher, Grant; Cutts, David; Demiragli, Zeynep; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Heintz, Ulrich; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kukartsev, Gennadiy; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Luk, Michael; Narain, Meenakshi; Segala, Michael; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Swanson, Joshua; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Erbacher, Robin; Gardner, Michael; Ko, Winston; Lander, Richard; Miceli, Tia; Mulhearn, Michael; Pellett, Dave; Pilot, Justin; Ricci-Tam, Francesca; Searle, Matthew; Shalhout, Shalhout; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Stolp, Dustin; Tripathi, Mani; Wilbur, Scott; Yohay, Rachel; Cousins, Robert; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Rakness, Gregory; Takasugi, Eric; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Babb, John; Clare, Robert; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Hanson, Gail; Heilman, Jesse; Jandir, Pawandeep; Kennedy, Elizabeth; Lacroix, Florent; Liu, Hongliang; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Malberti, Martina; Nguyen, Harold; Shrinivas, Amithabh; Sturdy, Jared; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Wimpenny, Stephen; Andrews, Warren; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Evans, David; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Lebourgeois, Matthew; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Olivito, Dominick; Padhi, Sanjay; Palmer, Christopher; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Sudano, Elizabeth; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Barge, Derek; Bradmiller-Feld, John; Campagnari, Claudio; Danielson, Thomas; Dishaw, Adam; Flowers, Kristen; Franco Sevilla, Manuel; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Mccoll, Nickolas; Richman, Jeffrey; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Duarte, Javier; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Pena, Cristian; Rogan, Christopher; Spiropulu, Maria; Timciuc, Vladlen; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carroll, Ryan; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Drell, Brian Robert; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Nauenberg, Uriel; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Ulmer, Keith; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Hopkins, Walter; Kreis, Benjamin; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Skinnari, Louise; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Apollinari, Giorgio; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Kaadze, Ketino; Klima, Boaz; Kwan, Simon; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Musienko, Yuri; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Sharma, Seema; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitbeck, Andrew; Whitmore, Juliana; Yang, Fan; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Carver, Matthew; Cheng, Tongguang; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Hugon, Justin; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Shchutska, Lesya; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Snowball, Matthew; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Gaultney, Vanessa; Hewamanage, Samantha; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Bazterra, Victor Eduardo; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Khalatyan, Samvel; Kurt, Pelin; Moon, Dong Ho; O'Brien, Christine; Silkworth, Christopher; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Duru, Firdevs; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sen, Sercan; Tan, Ping; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yetkin, Taylan; Yi, Kai; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Gritsan, Andrei; Maksimovic, Petar; Martin, Christopher; Swartz, Morris; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Bruner, Christopher; Gray, Julia; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Sekaric, Jadranka; Stringer, Robert; Wang, Quan; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Barfuss, Anne-Fleur; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Shrestha, Shruti; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Marionneau, Matthieu; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Skuja, Andris; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Barbieri, Richard; Bauer, Gerry; Busza, Wit; Cali, Ivan Amos; Chan, Matthew; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Dutta, Valentina; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Gulhan, Doga; Klute, Markus; Lai, Yue Shi; Lee, Yen-Jie; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Ma, Teng; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Stephans, George; Stöckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty; Velicanu, Dragos; Veverka, Jan; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Zanetti, Marco; Zhukova, Victoria; Dahmes, Bryan; De Benedetti, Abraham; Gude, Alexander; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Pastika, Nathaniel; Rusack, Roger; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Acosta, John Gabriel; Oliveros, Sandra; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Keller, Jason; Knowlton, Dan; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Malik, Sudhir; Meier, Frank; Snow, Gregory R; Dolen, James; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Haley, Joseph; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Trocino, Daniele; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Sung, Kevin; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Chan, Kwok Ming; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Luo, Wuming; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Smith, Geoffrey; Vuosalo, Carl; Winer, Brian L; Wolfe, Homer; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Berry, Edmund; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hebda, Philip; Hunt, Adam; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Zuranski, Andrzej; Brownson, Eric; Mendez, Hector; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Alagoz, Enver; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bolla, Gino; Bortoletto, Daniela; De Mattia, Marco; Everett, Adam; Hu, Zhen; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Kurt; Kress, Matthew; Leonardo, Nuno; Lopes Pegna, David; Maroussov, Vassili; Merkel, Petra; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Zablocki, Jakub; Zheng, Yu; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; Covarelli, Roberto; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Miner, Daniel Carl; Petrillo, Gianluca; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Lungu, Gheorghe; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Patel, Rishi; Rekovic, Vladimir; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Seitz, Claudia; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; York, Andrew; Bouhali, Othmane; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Sakuma, Tai; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Kunori, Shuichi; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wood, John; Gollapinni, Sowjanya; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Duric, Senka; Friis, Evan; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Klukas, Jeffrey; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Levine, Aaron; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ross, Ian; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Woods, Nathaniel

2014-08-18

The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 inverse-femtobarns of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.

On the trap of extinction and its elimination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vitanov, Nikolay K.; Dimitrova, Zlatinka I.; Kantz, Holger

2006-01-01

We investigate the dynamics of a system of three interacting populations in presence of extinction and substitution: each population whose number of individuals drops under some threshold value becomes extinct, and it is substituted by another population with different fitness and different coefficients of interaction with the other populations. We study the influence of extinction on the system states, which in the absence of extinction can be fixed points, limit cycles or chaotic attractors of Shilnikov kind. The extinction can destabilize each of these states. We observe two possible kinds of evolution in the destabilized system: (i) it can remain forever in the trap of extinction, i.e., the extinctions and substitutions of populations continue for indefinitely long time or (ii) it can avoid the trap of extinction by means of the substitution, i.e., the fitness and the coefficients of the interactions between the species move the system attractor away from the zone of the threshold values, the extinction stops, and the system settles on a new attractor. The obtained results are discussed from the point of view of products competing for the preference of buyers that can change their opinion

EARTH SCIENCE: Did Volcanoes Drive Ancient Extinctions?

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, R A

2000-08-18

With the publication in recent weeks of two papers on a mass extinction 183 million years ago, researchers can add five suggestive cases to the list of extinctions with known causes. These extinctions coincide with massive outpourings of lava, accompanied by signs that global warming threw the ocean-atmosphere system out of whack. Although no one can yet pin any of these mass extinctions with certainty on the volcanic eruptions, scientists say it's unlikely that they're all coincidences.

Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Burkhead, Noel M.

2012-01-01

Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). In the twentieth century, freshwater fishes had the highest extinction rate worldwide among vertebrates. The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morgane Barbet-Massin

Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

Can we avoid the Sixth Mass Extinction? Setting today's extinction crisis in the context of the Big Five

Science.gov (United States)

Barnosky, A. D.

2012-12-01

While the ultimate extinction driver now—Homo sapiens—is unique with respect to the drivers of past extinctions, comparison of parallel neontological and paleontological information helps calibrate how far the so-called Sixth Mass Extinction has progressed and whether it is inevitable. Such comparisons document that rates of extinction today are approaching or exceeding those that characterized the Big Five Mass Extinctions. Continuation of present extinction rates for vertebrates, for example, would result in 75% species loss—the minimum benchmark exhibited in the Big Five extinctions—within 3 to 22 centuries, assuming constant rates of loss and no threshold effects. Preceding and during each of the Big Five, the global ecosystem experienced major changes in climate, atmospheric chemisty, and ocean chemistry—not unlike what is being observed presently. Nevertheless, only 1-2% of well-assessed modern species have been lost over the past five centuries, still far below what characterized past mass extinctions in the strict paleontological sense. For mammals, adding in the end-Pleistocene species that died out would increase the species-loss percentage by some 5%. If threatened vertebrate species were to actually go extinct, losses would rise to between 14 and 40%, depending on the group. Such observations highlight that, although many species have already had their populations drastically reduced to near-critical levels, the Sixth Mass Extinction has not yet progressed to the point where it is unavoidable. Put another way, the vast majority of species that have occupied the world in concert with Homo sapiens are still alive and are possible to save. That task, however, will require slowing the abnormally high extinction rates that are now in progress, which in turn requires unified efforts to cap human population growth, decrease the average human footprint, reduce fossil fuel use while simultaneously increasing clean energy technologies, integrate

Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Alroy, John

2015-10-20

There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats.

Extinction of laminar partially premixed flames

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aggarwal, Suresh K. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 W. Taylor Street, Room 2039, MC-251, Chicago, IL 60607-7022 (United States)

2009-12-15

Flame extinction represents one of the classical phenomena in combustion science. It is important to a variety of combustion systems in transportation and power generation applications. Flame extinguishment studies are also motivated from the consideration of fire safety and suppression. Such studies have generally considered non-premixed and premixed flames, although fires can often originate in a partially premixed mode, i.e., fuel and oxidizer are partially premixed as they are transported to the reaction zone. Several recent investigations have considered this scenario and focused on the extinction of partially premixed flames (PPFs). Such flames have been described as hybrid flames possessing characteristics of both premixed and non-premixed flames. This paper provides a review of studies dealing with the extinction of PPFs, which represent a broad family of flames, including double, triple (tribrachial), and edge flames. Theoretical, numerical and experimental studies dealing with the extinction of such flames in coflow and counterflow configurations are discussed. Since these flames contain both premixed and non-premixed burning zones, a brief review of the dilution-induced extinction of premixed and non-premixed flames is also provided. For the coflow configuration, processes associated with flame liftoff and blowout are described. Since lifted non-premixed jet flames often contain a partially premixed or an edge-flame structure prior to blowout, the review also considers such flames. While the perspective of this review is broad focusing on the fundamental aspects of flame extinction and blowout, results mostly consider flame extinction caused by the addition of a flame suppressant, with relevance to fire suppression on earth and in space environment. With respect to the latter, the effect of gravity on the extinction of PPFs is discussed. Future research needs are identified. (author)

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael King

Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Genetic sex determination and extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Hedrick, Philip W; Gadau, Jürgen; Page, Robert E

2006-02-01

Genetic factors can affect the probability of extinction either by increasing the effect of detrimental variants or by decreasing the potential for future adaptive responses. In a recent paper, Zayed and Packer demonstrate that low variation at a specific locus, the complementary sex determination (csd) locus in Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps), can result in a sharply increased probability of extinction. Their findings illustrate situations in which there is a feedback process between decreased genetic variation at the csd locus owing to genetic drift and decreased population growth, resulting in an extreme type of extinction vortex for these ecologically important organisms.

Are marine and nonmarine extinctions correlated?

Science.gov (United States)

Rampino, Michael R.

Recent papers in Eos have debated the possible relationships between marine mass extinctions, comet showers, and volcanism [Alvarez, 1986; Officer and Grieve, 1986], and ail three might be linked [Rampino, 1987]. Moreover, as Officer and Grieve [ 1986] point out, various other causes have been suggested for given extinction events, including changes in climate, ocean circulation, and sea level fluctuations, possibly related to plate tectonics and continental positions. Also under debate is the issue of whether mass extinctions were gradual, stepped, or geologically sudden events (see, for example, Hut et al. [1987]). A missing ingredient thus far in these debates has been the record of faunal diversity of nonmarine animals. Does this show any agreement with the marine extinction record?

Visible and ultraviolet (800--130 nm) extinction of vapor-condensed silicate, carbon, and silicon carbide smokes and the interstellar extinction curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephens, J.R.

1980-01-01

The extinction curves from 800 to 130 nm (1.25--7.7 μm -1 ) of amorphous silicate smokes nominally of olivine and pyroxene composition, carbon smokes, and crystalline SiC smokes are presented. The SiC smoke occurred in the low-temperature (β) cubic structural form. The mean grain radius ranged from 5 to 13 nm. The extinction profiles of the amorphous olivine smokes were similar in the ultraviolet to the measured extinction curves of crystalline olivine of nearly the same grain size. The SiC smoke showed an absorption edge which occurred at significantly longer wavelengths than the calculated extinction profile of the hexagonal SiC form previously used to calculate the interstellar extinction profile. Neither SiC nor amorphous silicates show an extinction band similar to the observed 6.6 μm -1 astronomical extinction band

Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeboah J

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

Global extinction in spiral galaxies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tully, RB; Pierce, MJ; Saunders, W; Verheijen, MAW; Witchalls, PL

Magnitude-limited samples of spiral galaxies drawn from the Ursa Major and Pisces Clusters are used to determine their extinction properties as a function of inclination. Imaging photometry is available for 87 spirals in the B, R, I, and K' bands. Extinction causes systematic scatter in

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methylphenidate enhances extinction of contextual fear

OpenAIRE

Abraham, Antony D.; Cunningham, Christopher L.; Lattal, K. Matthew

2012-01-01

Methylphenidate (MPH, Ritalin) is a norepinephrine and dopamine transporter blocker that is widely used in humans for treatment of attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. Although there is some evidence that targeted microinjections of MPH may enhance fear acquisition, little is known about the effect of MPH on fear extinction. Here, we show that MPH, administered before or immediately following extinction of contextual fear, will enhance extinction retention in C57BL/6 mice. Animals that ...

The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

One extinct turtle species less: Pelusios seychellensis is not extinct, it never existed.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heiko Stuckas

Full Text Available Pelusios seychellensis is thought to be a freshwater turtle species endemic to the island of Mahé, Seychelles. There are only three museum specimens from the late 19(th century known. The species has been never found again, despite intensive searches on Mahé. Therefore, P. seychellensis has been declared as "Extinct" by the IUCN and is the sole putatively extinct freshwater turtle species. Using DNA sequences of three mitochondrial genes of the historical type specimen and phylogenetic analyses including all other species of the genus, we provide evidence that the description of P. seychellensis was erroneously based on a widely distributed West African species, P. castaneus. Consequently, we synonymize the two species and delete P. seychellensis from the list of extinct chelonian species and from the faunal list of the Seychelles.

Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians

Science.gov (United States)

Wake, David B.; Vredenburg, Vance T.

2008-01-01

Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. PMID:18695221

Molecular mechanisms of D-cycloserine in facilitating fear extinction: insights from RNAseq.

Science.gov (United States)

Malan-Müller, Stefanie; Fairbairn, Lorren; Daniels, Willie M U; Dashti, Mahjoubeh Jalali Sefid; Oakeley, Edward J; Altorfer, Marc; Kidd, Martin; Seedat, Soraya; Gamieldien, Junaid; Hemmings, Sîan Megan Joanna

2016-02-01

D-cycloserine (DCS) has been shown to be effective in facilitating fear extinction in animal and human studies, however the precise mechanisms whereby the co-administration of DCS and behavioural fear extinction reduce fear are still unclear. This study investigated the molecular mechanisms of intrahippocampally administered D-cycloserine in facilitating fear extinction in a contextual fear conditioning animal model. Male Sprague Dawley rats (n = 120) were grouped into four experimental groups (n = 30) based on fear conditioning and intrahippocampal administration of either DCS or saline. The light/dark avoidance test was used to differentiate maladapted (MA) (anxious) from well-adapted (WA) (not anxious) subgroups. RNA extracted from the left dorsal hippocampus was used for RNA sequencing and gene expression data was compared between six fear-conditioned + saline MA (FEAR + SALINE MA) and six fear-conditioned + DCS WA (FEAR + DCS WA) animals. Of the 424 significantly downregulated and 25 significantly upregulated genes identified in the FEAR + DCS WA group compared to the FEAR + SALINE MA group, 121 downregulated and nine upregulated genes were predicted to be relevant to fear conditioning and anxiety and stress-related disorders. The majority of downregulated genes transcribed immune, proinflammatory and oxidative stress systems molecules. These molecules mediate neuroinflammation and cause neuronal damage. DCS also regulated genes involved in learning and memory processes, and genes associated with anxiety, stress-related disorders and co-occurring diseases (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, digestive system diseases and nervous system diseases). Identifying the molecular underpinnings of DCS-mediated fear extinction brings us closer to understanding the process of fear extinction.

Interstellar extinction in the Large Magellanic Cloud

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nandy, K.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.; Houziaux, L.

1980-01-01

Recent UV observations together with complementary visible data of several reddened and comparison stars of similar spectral types in the Large Magellanic Cloud have been used to study the interstellar extinction in that galaxy. Most of the reddened stars studied here are located within 2 0 of 30 Doradus and show remarkably high extinction in the far UV, suggesting a large abundance of small particles. From the optical wavelength to 2,600 A the normalised extinction curves of the LMC stars are similar to the mean galactic extinction law. (author)

Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

1995-12-31

It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

Further Evidence of Auditory Extinction in Aphasia

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Rebecca Shisler; Basilakos, Alexandra; Love-Myers, Kim

2013-01-01

Purpose: Preliminary research ( Shisler, 2005) suggests that auditory extinction in individuals with aphasia (IWA) may be connected to binding and attention. In this study, the authors expanded on previous findings on auditory extinction to determine the source of extinction deficits in IWA. Method: Seventeen IWA (M[subscript age] = 53.19 years)…

Reactivated Memories Compete for Expression After Pavlovian Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

2012-01-01

We view the response decrement resulting from extinction treatment as an interference effect, in which the reactivated memory from acquisition competes with the reactivated memory from extinction for behavioral expression. For each of these memories, reactivation is proportional to both the strength of the stimulus-outcome association and the quality of the facilitatory cues for that association which are present at test. Here we review basic extinction and recovery-from-extinction phenomena, showing how these effects are explicable in this associative interference framework. Moreover, this orientation has and continues to dictate efficient manipulations for minimizing recovery from extinction. This in turn suggests procedures that might reduce relapse from exposure therapy for a number of psychological disorders. Some of these manipulations enhance the facilitatory cues from extinction that are present at test, others strengthen the extinction association (i.e., CS-no outcome), and yet others seem to work by a combination of these two processes. PMID:22326812

Running from fear: Exercise modulation of fear extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner, Margaret K; Hake, Holly S; Bouchet, Courtney A; Greenwood, Benjamin N

2018-03-31

Extinction-based exposure therapy is the most common behavioral therapy for anxiety and trauma-related disorders, but fear tends to resurface even after successful extinction. Identification of novel strategies to enhance fear extinction and reduce fear relapse is of paramount importance to mental health. Exercise can enhance cognitive function, but it is not yet well understood whether exercise can be an effective augmentation strategy for fear extinction. In the current review, we present the current state of knowledge on the effects of exercise on fear extinction. Effects of exercise duration, explanations for conflicting results, and potential mechanisms, focusing on a hypothesized role for dopamine, are all discussed. We also provide new data suggesting that the timing in which acute exercise occurs relative to fear extinction, is a crucial variable in determining whether exercise can enhance fear extinction. Clinical implications and ideas to guide future research endeavors in this area are provided. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

Science.gov (United States)

Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

2013-09-01

1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

2017-07-01

OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

Higher threat avoidance costs reduce avoidance behaviour which in turn promotes fear extinction in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Rattel, Julina A; Miedl, Stephan F; Blechert, Jens; Wilhelm, Frank H

2017-09-01

Theoretical models specifying the underlying mechanisms of the development and maintenance of anxiety and related disorders state that fear responses acquired through classical Pavlovian conditioning are maintained by repeated avoidance behaviour; thus, it is assumed that avoidance prevents fear extinction. The present study investigated behavioural avoidance decisions as a function of avoidance costs in a naturalistic fear conditioning paradigm. Ecologically valid avoidance costs - manipulated between participant groups - were represented via time-delays during a detour in a gamified computer task. After differential acquisitions of shock-expectancy to a predictive conditioned stimulus (CS+), participants underwent extinction where they could either take a risky shortcut, while anticipating shock signaled by the CS+, or choose a costly avoidance option (lengthy detour); thus, they were faced with an approach-avoidance conflict. Groups with higher avoidance costs (longer detours) showed lower proportions of avoiders. Avoiders gave heightened shock-expectancy ratings post-extinction, demonstrating 'protecting from extinction', i.e. failure to extinguish. Moreover, there was an indirect effect of avoidance costs on protection from extinction through avoidance behaviour. No moderating role of trait-anxiety was found. Theoretical implications of avoidance behaviour are discussed, considering the involvement of instrumental learning in the maintenance of fear responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Young Children’s Risk-Taking: Mothers’ Authoritarian Parenting Predicts Risk-Taking by Daughters but Not Sons

OpenAIRE

Wood, Erin E.; Kennison, Shelia M.

2017-01-01

We investigated how mothers’ parenting behaviors and personal characteristics were related to risk-taking by young children. We tested contrasting predictions from evolutionary and social role theories with the former predicting higher risk-taking by boys compared to girls and the latter predicting that mothers would influence children’s gender role development with risk-taking occurring more in children parented with higher levels of harshness (i.e., authoritarian parenting style). In our st...

A robust nonparametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chisholm, Ryan A; Giam, Xingli; Sadanandan, Keren R; Fung, Tak; Rheindt, Frank E

2016-06-01

How many species have gone extinct in modern times before being described by science? To answer this question, and thereby get a full assessment of humanity's impact on biodiversity, statistical methods that quantify undetected extinctions are required. Such methods have been developed recently, but they are limited by their reliance on parametric assumptions; specifically, they assume the pools of extant and undetected species decay exponentially, whereas real detection rates vary temporally with survey effort and real extinction rates vary with the waxing and waning of threatening processes. We devised a new, nonparametric method for estimating undetected extinctions. As inputs, the method requires only the first and last date at which each species in an ensemble was recorded. As outputs, the method provides estimates of the proportion of species that have gone extinct, detected, or undetected and, in the special case where the number of undetected extant species in the present day is assumed close to zero, of the absolute number of undetected extinct species. The main assumption of the method is that the per-species extinction rate is independent of whether a species has been detected or not. We applied the method to the resident native bird fauna of Singapore. Of 195 recorded species, 58 (29.7%) have gone extinct in the last 200 years. Our method projected that an additional 9.6 species (95% CI 3.4, 19.8) have gone extinct without first being recorded, implying a true extinction rate of 33.0% (95% CI 31.0%, 36.2%). We provide R code for implementing our method. Because our method does not depend on strong assumptions, we expect it to be broadly useful for quantifying undetected extinctions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

2007-02-01

Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

Bilateral Alternating Auditory Stimulations Facilitate Fear Extinction and Retrieval

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Boukezzi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Disruption of fear conditioning, its extinction and its retrieval are at the core of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD. Such deficits, especially fear extinction delay, disappear after alternating bilateral stimulations (BLS during eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR therapy. An animal model of fear recovery, based on auditory cued fear conditioning and extinction learning, recently showed that BLS facilitate fear extinction and fear extinction retrieval. Our goal was to determine if these previous results found in animals can be reproduced in humans. Twenty-two healthy participants took part in a classical fear conditioning, extinction, and extinction recall paradigm. Behavioral responses (fear expectations as well as psychophysiological measures (skin conductance responses, SCRs were recorded. The results showed a significant fear expectation decrease during fear extinction with BLS. Additionally, SCR for fear extinction retrieval were significantly lower with BLS. Our results demonstrate the importance of BLS to reduce negative emotions, and provide a successful model to further explore the neural mechanisms underlying the sole BLS effect in the EMDR.

Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

kirstam

management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

Science.gov (United States)

Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

2013-07-01

Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

Bilateral Alternating Auditory Stimulations Facilitate Fear Extinction and Retrieval

OpenAIRE

Boukezzi, Sarah; Silva, Catarina; Nazarian, Bruno; Rousseau, Pierre-François; Guedj, Eric; Valenzuela-Moguillansky, Camila; Khalfa, Stéphanie

2017-01-01

Disruption of fear conditioning, its extinction and its retrieval are at the core of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Such deficits, especially fear extinction delay, disappear after alternating bilateral stimulations (BLS) during eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) therapy. An animal model of fear recovery, based on auditory cued fear conditioning and extinction learning, recently showed that BLS facilitate fear extinction and fear extinction retrieval. Our goal was to ...

Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

2012-01-01

Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

Science.gov (United States)

Thomsen, Matthias S.; Garcia, Clement; Bolam, Stefan G.; Parker, Ruth; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Solan, Martin

2017-03-01

Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation - a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling - to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.

Activation of D1/5 Dopamine Receptors: A Common Mechanism for Enhancing Extinction of Fear and Reward-Seeking Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Abraham, Antony D; Neve, Kim A; Lattal, K Matthew

2016-07-01

Dopamine is critical for many processes that drive learning and memory, including motivation, prediction error, incentive salience, memory consolidation, and response output. Theories of dopamine's function in these processes have, for the most part, been developed from behavioral approaches that examine learning mechanisms in appetitive tasks. A parallel and growing literature indicates that dopamine signaling is involved in consolidation of memories into stable representations in aversive tasks such as fear conditioning. Relatively little is known about how dopamine may modulate memories that form during extinction, when organisms learn that the relation between previously associated events is severed. We investigated whether fear and reward extinction share common mechanisms that could be enhanced with dopamine D1/5 receptor activation. Pharmacological activation of dopamine D1/5 receptors (with SKF 81297) enhanced extinction of both cued and contextual fear. These effects also occurred in the extinction of cocaine-induced conditioned place preference, suggesting that the observed effects on extinction were not specific to a particular type of procedure (aversive or appetitive). A cAMP/PKA biased D1 agonist (SKF 83959) did not affect fear extinction, whereas a broadly efficacious D1 agonist (SKF 83822) promoted fear extinction. Together, these findings show that dopamine D1/5 receptor activation is a target for the enhancement of fear or reward extinction.

Predicting the risk of rheumatoid arthritis and its age of onset through modelling genetic risk variants with smoking.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian C Scott

Full Text Available The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA. Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls; UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls. HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG. Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001; ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively.

Mass Extinctions and Supernova Explosions

Science.gov (United States)

Korschinek, Gunther

A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation or the direct exposure of lethal X-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in the Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be excluded and might even have been responsible for past extinction events.

High frequency of functional extinctions in ecological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Säterberg, Torbjörn; Sellman, Stefan; Ebenman, Bo

2013-07-25

Intensified exploitation of natural populations and habitats has led to increased mortality rates and decreased abundances of many species. There is a growing concern that this might cause critical abundance thresholds of species to be crossed, with extinction cascades and state shifts in ecosystems as a consequence. When increased mortality rate and decreased abundance of a given species lead to extinction of other species, this species can be characterized as functionally extinct even though it still exists. Although such functional extinctions have been observed in some ecosystems, their frequency is largely unknown. Here we use a new modelling approach to explore the frequency and pattern of functional extinctions in ecological networks. Specifically, we analytically derive critical abundance thresholds of species by increasing their mortality rates until an extinction occurs in the network. Applying this approach on natural and theoretical food webs, we show that the species most likely to go extinct first is not the one whose mortality rate is increased but instead another species. Indeed, up to 80% of all first extinctions are of another species, suggesting that a species' ecological functionality is often lost before its own existence is threatened. Furthermore, we find that large-bodied species at the top of the food chains can only be exposed to small increases in mortality rate and small decreases in abundance before going functionally extinct compared to small-bodied species lower in the food chains. These results illustrate the potential importance of functional extinctions in ecological networks and lend strong support to arguments advocating a more community-oriented approach in conservation biology, with target levels for populations based on ecological functionality rather than on mere persistence.

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-03-29

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Parameterization of the Extinction Coefficient in Ice and Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds during the ISDAC Field Campaign

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korolev, A; Shashkov, A; Barker, H

2012-03-06

This report documents the history of attempts to directly measure cloud extinction, the current measurement device known as the Cloud Extinction Probe (CEP), specific problems with direct measurement of extinction coefficient, and the attempts made here to address these problems. Extinction coefficient is one of the fundamental microphysical parameters characterizing bulk properties of clouds. Knowledge of extinction coefficient is of crucial importance for radiative transfer calculations in weather prediction and climate models given that Earth's radiation budget (ERB) is modulated much by clouds. In order for a large-scale model to properly account for ERB and perturbations to it, it must ultimately be able to simulate cloud extinction coefficient well. In turn this requires adequate and simultaneous simulation of profiles of cloud water content and particle habit and size. Similarly, remote inference of cloud properties requires assumptions to be made about cloud phase and associated single-scattering properties, of which extinction coefficient is crucial. Hence, extinction coefficient plays an important role in both application and validation of methods for remote inference of cloud properties from data obtained from both satellite and surface sensors (e.g., Barker et al. 2008). While estimation of extinction coefficient within large-scale models is relatively straightforward for pure water droplets, thanks to Mie theory, mixed-phase and ice clouds still present problems. This is because of the myriad forms and sizes that crystals can achieve, each having their own unique extinction properties. For the foreseeable future, large-scale models will have to be content with diagnostic parametrization of crystal size and type. However, before they are able to provide satisfactory values needed for calculation of radiative transfer, they require the intermediate step of assigning single-scattering properties to particles. The most basic of these is extinction

Comparative Earth history and Late Permian mass extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Knoll, A. H.; Bambach, R. K.; Canfield, D. E.; Grotzinger, J. P.

1996-01-01