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Sample records for predict future optical

  1. Head-down posture in glaucoma suspects induces changes in IOP, systemic pressure and PERG that predict future loss of optic nerve tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porciatti, Vittorio; Feuer, William J.; Monsalve, Pedro; Triolo, Giacinto; Vazquez, Luis; McSoley, John; Ventura, Lori M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To obtain pilot data on posture-induced changes of IOP, systemic pressure and pattern electroretinogram (PERG) predictive of future optic nerve tissue loss glaucoma suspects (GS). Methods Mean peripapillary retinal fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) was measured with OCT two times/year in 28 GS aged 58 ± 8.9 years over 5.0 ± 0.73 years. All patients had a baseline PERG, IOP and brachial blood pressure measurements in the seated and – 10 degrees head-down-body-tilt position (HDT). Outcome measures were seated/HDT PERG amplitude and phase, IOP, mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), and estimated ocular perfusion pressure (OPP). An additional group of 11 similarly-aged controls (SAC) aged 56.9 ± 13 years was tested for comparison. Results While all GS had initial RNFLT in the normal range, 9/28 of them developed significant (P blood pressure, together with their changes upon HDT, may have predictive value for future loss of optic nerve tissue in GS. This study supports the rationale for a full-scale clinical trial to identify patients at high-risk of development of glaucoma. PMID:28263259

  2. Optical Interconnects for Future Data Center Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Bergman, Keren; Tomkos, Ioannis

    2013-01-01

    Optical Interconnects for Future Data Center Networks covers optical networks and how they can provide high bandwidth, energy efficient interconnects with increased communication bandwidth. This volume, with contributions from leading researchers in the field, presents an integrated view of the expected future requirements of data centers and serves as a reference for some of the most advanced and promising solutions proposed by researchers from leading universities, research labs, and companies. The work also includes several novel architectures, each demonstrating different technologies such as optical circuits, optical switching, MIMO optical OFDM, and others. Additionally, Optical Interconnects for Future Data Center Networks provides invaluable insights into the benefits and advantages of optical interconnects and how they can be a promising alternative for future data center networks.

  3. Fiber Optics: A Bright Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, James, Jr.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of the impact of fiber optics on telecommunications and its application to information processing and library services, including information retrieval, news services, remote transmission of library services, and library networking. (RAA)

  4. Future metrology needs for FEL reflective optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assoufid, L.

    2000-01-01

    An International Workshop on Metrology for X-ray and Neutron Optics has been held March 16-17, 2000, at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, near Chicago, Illinois (USA). The workshop gathered engineers and scientists from both the U.S. and around the world to evaluate metrology instrumentation and methods used to characterize surface figure and finish for long grazing incidence optics used in beamlines at synchrotrons radiation sources. This two-day workshop was motivated by the rapid evolution in the performance of x-ray and neutron sources along with requirements in optics figure and finish. More specifically, the performance of future light sources, such as free-electron laser (FEL)-based x-ray sources, is being pushed to new limits in term of both brilliance and coherence. As a consequence, tolerances on surface figure and finish of the next generation of optics are expected to become tighter. The timing of the workshop provided an excellent opportunity to study the problem, evaluate the state of the art in metrology instrumentation, and stimulate innovation on future metrology instruments and techniques to be used to characterize these optics. This paper focuses on FEL optics and metrology needs. (A more comprehensive summary of the workshop can be found elsewhere.) The performance and limitations of current metrology instrumentation will be discussed and recommendations from the workshop on future metrology development to meet the FEL challenges will be detailed

  5. Future metrology needs for FEL reflective optics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assoufid, L.

    2000-09-21

    An International Workshop on Metrology for X-ray and Neutron Optics has been held March 16-17, 2000, at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, near Chicago, Illinois (USA). The workshop gathered engineers and scientists from both the U.S. and around the world to evaluate metrology instrumentation and methods used to characterize surface figure and finish for long grazing incidence optics used in beamlines at synchrotrons radiation sources. This two-day workshop was motivated by the rapid evolution in the performance of x-ray and neutron sources along with requirements in optics figure and finish. More specifically, the performance of future light sources, such as free-electron laser (FEL)-based x-ray sources, is being pushed to new limits in term of both brilliance and coherence. As a consequence, tolerances on surface figure and finish of the next generation of optics are expected to become tighter. The timing of the workshop provided an excellent opportunity to study the problem, evaluate the state of the art in metrology instrumentation, and stimulate innovation on future metrology instruments and techniques to be used to characterize these optics. This paper focuses on FEL optics and metrology needs. (A more comprehensive summary of the workshop can be found elsewhere.) The performance and limitations of current metrology instrumentation will be discussed and recommendations from the workshop on future metrology development to meet the FEL challenges will be detailed.

  6. Prediction of future asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  7. Designers predict a bright future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statton, T.D.

    1996-01-01

    As power plant designers and builders, there is a bright future for the industry. The demand for electricity will continue to grow, and the need for new plants will increase accordingly. But companies that develop and supply these plants must adapt to new ways of doing business if they expect to see the dawn of this new age. Several factors will have a profound effect on the generation and use of electricity in future years. Instant communications now reach all corners of the globe, making people everywhere aspire to a higher standard of living. The economic surge needed to satisfy these appetites will, in turn, be fed by a network of suppliers who are themselves restructuring to serve global markets, unimpeded by past nationalistic barriers to trade. The strong correlation between economic progress and the growing demand for electricity is well recognized. A ready supply of affordable electricity is a necessary underpinning for any economic expansion. As economies advance and jobs increase, electric demand grows geometrically, fueled by an ever-improving quality of life. Coupled with increasing demand is the worldwide trend toward privatization of the generation industry. The reasons may vary in different parts of the world, but the effect is the same--companies are battling intensely for the right to build or purchase generating facilities. Those companies, like the industry they serve, are themselves in a period of transition. Once a closed, monopolistic group of owners in a predominantly services-based market, they are, thanks to competitive forces, being driven steadily toward a product-based structure

  8. Predicting the future of sports organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jugoslav Vojinovic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

  9. Optical MEMS: past, present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramani, Chandra Mouli

    2005-09-01

    Spurred by the growth of the internet, Optical Telecommunications bandwidth, experienced unprecedented growth during late 1990's. During this time of great economic expansion, the creation of new enterprises was vast and the expansion of established component, system and services companies was breathtaking. Unfortunately, this positive economic state was short-lived. This period was followed in 2001-2004 by one of the most significant market crashes in history. During those 10 years of economic growth, about $20B in venture capital was invested in the optical telecom industry, most of this investment was lost in recent years. Many start-up industries which experienced unprecedented growth at the end of the 20th century were lost at the start of the 21st. (1) During this time many, innovative technologies were born and buried. However, many new capabilities emerged from this period of unrest; one such example is the advent of Optical MEMS (MOEMS). Many academics and corporate laboratories pursued the development of MOEMS during the economic boom and, in the author's view; MOEMS surfaced as a powerful and versatile tool set that has proved invaluable and in the last few years during economic downturn, stood the test of time. In the Telecommunications industry, for optical switching and wavelength management applications MOEMS has proven to be the technology of choice. (2) Variable Optical Attenuators (VOA), Wavelength Blockers (WB), Dynamic Gain Equalizers (DGE), and most recently Wavelength Selective Switches (WSS) are being used in the numerous recent network deployments. Moreover, agile networks of the future will have MOEMS at every node. This presentation will provide an overview of the history of MOEMS in Telecommunications, discuss its byproducts and offer a window into the future of the technology.

  10. Envisioning the future by predicting the past

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skrydstrup, Martin

    2017-01-01

    ), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future...

  11. Optical processing for future computer networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, A.; Haugen, P. R.; Hutcheson, L. D.; Warrior, J.; Murray, N.; Beatty, M.

    1986-01-01

    In the development of future data management systems, such as the NASA Space Station, a major problem represents the design and implementation of a high performance communication network which is self-correcting and repairing, flexible, and evolvable. To obtain the goal of designing such a network, it will be essential to incorporate distributed adaptive network control techniques. The present paper provides an outline of the functional and communication network requirements for the Space Station data management system. Attention is given to the mathematical representation of the operations being carried out to provide the required functionality at each layer of communication protocol on the model. The possible implementation of specific communication functions in optics is also considered.

  12. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  13. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  14. Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

    2017-12-01

    The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

  15. Dynamic Optical Networks for Future Internet Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matera, Francesco

    2014-05-01

    This article reports an overview on the evolution of the optical network scenario taking into account the exponential growth of connected devices, big data, and cloud computing that is driving a concrete transformation impacting the information and communication technology world. This hyper-connected scenario is deeply affecting relationships between individuals, enterprises, citizens, and public administrations, fostering innovative use cases in practically any environment and market, and introducing new opportunities and new challenges. The successful realization of this hyper-connected scenario depends on different elements of the ecosystem. In particular, it builds on connectivity and functionalities allowed by converged next-generation networks and their capacity to support and integrate with the Internet of Things, machine-to-machine, and cloud computing. This article aims at providing some hints of this scenario to contribute to analyze impacts on optical system and network issues and requirements. In particular, the role of the software-defined network is investigated by taking into account all scenarios regarding data centers, cloud computing, and machine-to-machine and trying to illustrate all the advantages that could be introduced by advanced optical communications.

  16. Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    1997-01-01

    Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

  17. Optical distribution of local oscillators in future telecommunication satellite payloads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benazet, Benoît; Sotom, Michel; Maignan, Michel; Berthon, Jacques

    2017-11-01

    The distribution of high spectral purity reference signals over optical fibre in future telecommunication satellite payloads is presented. Several types of applications are considered, including the distribution of a reference frequency at 10 MHz (Ultra-Stable Reference Oscillator) as well as the distribution of a radiofrequency oscillator around 800 MHz (Master Local Oscillator). The results of both experimental and theoretical studies are reported. In order to meet phase noise requirements for the USRO distribution, the use of an optimised receiver circuit based on an optically synchronised oscillator is investigated. Finally, the optical distribution of microwave local oscillators at frequencies exceeding 20 GHz is described. Such a scheme paves the way to more advanced sub-systems involving optical frequency-mixing and optical transmission of microwave signals, with applications to multiple-beam active antennas.

  18. Optical coherence tomography in gastroenterology: a review and future outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Tsung-Han; Leggett, Cadman L.; Trindade, Arvind J.; Sethi, Amrita; Swager, Anne-Fré; Joshi, Virendra; Bergman, Jacques J.; Mashimo, Hiroshi; Nishioka, Norman S.; Namati, Eman

    2017-12-01

    Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is an imaging technique optically analogous to ultrasound that can generate depth-resolved images with micrometer-scale resolution. Advances in fiber optics and miniaturized actuation technologies allow OCT imaging of the human body and further expand OCT utilization in applications including but not limited to cardiology and gastroenterology. This review article provides an overview of current OCT development and its clinical utility in the gastrointestinal tract, including disease detection/differentiation and endoscopic therapy guidance, as well as a discussion of its future applications.

  19. Optical signal acquisition and processing in future accelerator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, G.P.; Elliott, A.

    1992-01-01

    Beam detectors such as striplines and wall current monitors rely on matched electrical networks to transmit and process beam information. Frequency bandwidth, noise immunity, reflections, and signal to noise ratio are considerations that require compromises limiting the quality of the measurement. Recent advances in fiber optics related technologies have made it possible to acquire and process beam signals in the optical domain. This paper describes recent developments in the application of these technologies to accelerator beam diagnostics. The design and construction of an optical notch filter used for a stochastic cooling system is used as an example. Conceptual ideas for future beam detectors are also presented

  20. Linear zonal atmospheric prediction for adaptive optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Patrick C.; Rhoadarmer, Troy A.; Coy, Hanna A.; Angel, J. Roger P.; Lloyd-Hart, Michael

    2000-07-01

    We compare linear zonal predictors of atmospheric turbulence for adaptive optics. Zonal prediction has the possible advantage of being able to interpret and utilize wind-velocity information from the wavefront sensor better than modal prediction. For simulated open-loop atmospheric data for a 2- meter 16-subaperture AO telescope with 5 millisecond prediction and a lookback of 4 slope-vectors, we find that Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule training of linear nets and Back- Propagation training of non-linear multilayer neural networks is quite slow, getting stuck on plateaus or in local minima. Recursive Least Squares training of linear predictors is two orders of magnitude faster and it also converges to the solution with global minimum error. We have successfully implemented Amari's Adaptive Natural Gradient Learning (ANGL) technique for a linear zonal predictor, which premultiplies the Delta-Rule gradients with a matrix that orthogonalizes the parameter space and speeds up the training by two orders of magnitude, like the Recursive Least Squares predictor. This shows that the simple Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule's slow convergence is not a fluke. In the case of bright guidestars, the ANGL, RLS, and standard matrix-inversion least-squares (MILS) algorithms all converge to the same global minimum linear total phase error (approximately 0.18 rad2), which is only approximately 5% higher than the spatial phase error (approximately 0.17 rad2), and is approximately 33% lower than the total 'naive' phase error without prediction (approximately 0.27 rad2). ANGL can, in principle, also be extended to make non-linear neural network training feasible for these large networks, with the potential to lower the predictor error below the linear predictor error. We will soon scale our linear work to the approximately 108-subaperture MMT AO system, both with simulations and real wavefront sensor data from prime focus.

  1. The JPL optical communications telescope laboratory (OCTL) test bed for the future optical Deep Space Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, K. E.; Page, N.; Wu, J.; Srinivasan, M.

    2003-01-01

    Relative to RF, the lower power-consumption and lower mass of high bandwidth optical telecommunications make this technology extremely attractive for returning data from future NASA/JPL deep space probes.

  2. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

  3. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  4. Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N'Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Marano, F.; Boland, S.; Leroux, M.; Zucchini-Pascal, N.; Peyre, L.; Rahmani, R.; Buron, N.; Porcedou, M.; Fromenty, B.; Borgne-Sanchez, A.; Rogue, A.; Spire, C.; Claude, N.; Guillouzo, A.

    2010-01-01

    Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

  5. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  6. Predicting future discoveries from current scientific literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrič, Ingrid; Cestnik, Bojan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge discovery in biomedicine is a time-consuming process starting from the basic research, through preclinical testing, towards possible clinical applications. Crossing of conceptual boundaries is often needed for groundbreaking biomedical research that generates highly inventive discoveries. We demonstrate the ability of a creative literature mining method to advance valuable new discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. When emerging ideas from scientific literature are put together as fragments of knowledge in a systematic way, they may lead to original, sometimes surprising, research findings. If enough scientific evidence is already published for the association of such findings, they can be considered as scientific hypotheses. In this chapter, we describe a method for the computer-aided generation of such hypotheses based on the existing scientific literature. Our literature-based discovery of NF-kappaB with its possible connections to autism was recently approved by scientific community, which confirms the ability of our literature mining methodology to accelerate future discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature.

  7. Can preoperative MR imaging predict optic nerve invasion of retinoblastoma?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Kyoung Doo; Eo, Hong; Kim, Ji Hye; Yoo, So-Young; Jeon, Tae Yeon

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of pre-operative MRI for the detection of optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma. Materials and methods: Institutional review board approval and informed consent were waived for this retrospective study. A total of 41 patients were included. Inclusion criteria were histologically proven retinoblastoma, availability of diagnostic-quality preoperative MR images acquired during the 4 weeks before surgery, unilateral retinoblastoma, and normal-sized optic nerve. Two radiologists retrospectively reviewed the MR images independently. Five imaging findings (diffuse mild optic nerve enhancement, focal strong optic nerve enhancement, optic sheath enhancement, tumor location, and tumor size) were evaluated against optic nerve invasion of retinoblastoma. The predictive performance of all MR imaging findings for optic nerve invasion was also evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Optic nerve invasion was histopathologically confirmed in 24% of study population (10/41). The differences in diffuse mild enhancement, focal strong enhancement, optic sheath enhancement, and tumor location between patients with optic nerve invasion and patients without optic nerve invasion were not significant. Tumor sizes were 16.1 mm (SD: 2.2 mm) and 14.9 mm (SD: 3.6 mm) in patients with and without optic nerve involvement, respectively (P = 0.444). P-Values from binary logistic regression indicated that all five imaging findings were not significant predictors of tumor invasion of optic nerve. The AUC values of all MR imaging findings for the prediction of optic nerve invasion were 0.689 (95% confidence interval: 0.499–0.879) and 0.653 (95% confidence interval: 0.445–0.861) for observer 1 and observer 2, respectively. Conclusion: Findings of MRI in patients with normal-sized optic nerves have limited usefulness in preoperatively predicting the presence of optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma.

  8. Can preoperative MR imaging predict optic nerve invasion of retinoblastoma?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyoung Doo, E-mail: kdsong0308@gmail.com [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 50, Ilwon-Dong, Kangnam-Ku, Seoul 135-710 (Korea, Republic of); Eo, Hong, E-mail: rtombow@gmail.com [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 50, Ilwon-Dong, Kangnam-Ku, Seoul 135-710 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ji Hye, E-mail: jhkate.kim@samsung.com [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 50, Ilwon-Dong, Kangnam-Ku, Seoul 135-710 (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, So-Young, E-mail: sy1131.yoo@samsung.com [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 50, Ilwon-Dong, Kangnam-Ku, Seoul 135-710 (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Tae Yeon, E-mail: hathor97.jeon@samsung.com [Department of Radiology and Center for Imaging Science, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 50, Ilwon-Dong, Kangnam-Ku, Seoul 135-710 (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-12-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of pre-operative MRI for the detection of optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma. Materials and methods: Institutional review board approval and informed consent were waived for this retrospective study. A total of 41 patients were included. Inclusion criteria were histologically proven retinoblastoma, availability of diagnostic-quality preoperative MR images acquired during the 4 weeks before surgery, unilateral retinoblastoma, and normal-sized optic nerve. Two radiologists retrospectively reviewed the MR images independently. Five imaging findings (diffuse mild optic nerve enhancement, focal strong optic nerve enhancement, optic sheath enhancement, tumor location, and tumor size) were evaluated against optic nerve invasion of retinoblastoma. The predictive performance of all MR imaging findings for optic nerve invasion was also evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Optic nerve invasion was histopathologically confirmed in 24% of study population (10/41). The differences in diffuse mild enhancement, focal strong enhancement, optic sheath enhancement, and tumor location between patients with optic nerve invasion and patients without optic nerve invasion were not significant. Tumor sizes were 16.1 mm (SD: 2.2 mm) and 14.9 mm (SD: 3.6 mm) in patients with and without optic nerve involvement, respectively (P = 0.444). P-Values from binary logistic regression indicated that all five imaging findings were not significant predictors of tumor invasion of optic nerve. The AUC values of all MR imaging findings for the prediction of optic nerve invasion were 0.689 (95% confidence interval: 0.499–0.879) and 0.653 (95% confidence interval: 0.445–0.861) for observer 1 and observer 2, respectively. Conclusion: Findings of MRI in patients with normal-sized optic nerves have limited usefulness in preoperatively predicting the presence of optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma.

  9. Predicting Future Conflict under REDD+ Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Silori

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available With the current complexity of issues facing forest and land management, the implementation of the REDD+ initiative comes with significant risks, including conflict. While the exact nature and shape of conflict in REDD+ implementation is difficult to pinpoint, this study aims to build a preliminary predictive framework to identify possible sources of impairment that may result in conflict over management of forests and natural resources. The framework was developed from an extensive literature review and was tested in three REDD+ pilot project sites in Nepal. The results indicate that most of the sources of impairment are present in all study sites, particularly issues relating to benefit sharing, which have been main drivers of conflict prior to REDD+. While we found that the application of the framework has been useful in the Nepalese context, there are some limitations in its scope and precision. Nonetheless, this study points to important implications with regards to REDD+ implementation and conflict management that can be useful for policy makers and practitioners involved in REDD+ strategy designs, as well as other areas of forest management involving outsiders and communities.

  10. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  11. Future opportunities in production of disposable optics and electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhonen, Raimo

    2001-05-01

    The several production methods of paper processing chain can be used, by analogy, to generate novel ideas for production of optics and electronics. Paper processing is a very fast reel-to-reel process: In the beginning of the paper web production the process is running at the speed of over thousand meters per minute and the web width can be 10 meters, and still at the later stages the speed is several hundreds of meters per minute with the web width of a couple of meters. There are several potential reel-to-reel production methods like embossing, printing, laminating and different kinds of vacuum coating, for example evaporation and sputtering. End products are complex multi-layer composite structures. The benefits from this analogy for optics and electronics would be ideas for ultra fast production, paper-like disposable and recyclable products and the integration of optics and electronics into ordinary things like books, wallpapers, tissue papers and packages. Two experiments are presented to demonstrate the possibilities. In the first experiment optical patterns are embossed directly on paper. In the second one conductive polymers are printed on paper and plastic webs. In future, a wide network of cooperation will be needed to realize all the opportunities.

  12. Intracranial pressure-induced optic nerve sheath response as a predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wostyn, Peter; De Deyn, Peter Paul

    2017-11-01

    A significant proportion of the astronauts who spend extended periods in microgravity develop ophthalmic abnormalities. Understanding this syndrome, called visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP), has become a high priority for National Aeronautics and Space Administration, especially in view of future long-duration missions (e.g., Mars missions). Moreover, to ensure selection of astronaut candidates who will be able to complete long-duration missions with low risk of the VIIP syndrome, it is imperative to identify biomarkers for VIIP risk prediction. Here, we hypothesize that the optic nerve sheath response to alterations in intracranial pressure may be a potential predictive biomarker for optic disc edema in astronauts. If confirmed, this biomarker could be used for preflight identification of astronauts at risk for developing VIIP-associated optic disc edema.

  13. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  14. Exhibition: Fibre optics, the future is at hand

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    Until 20 June, the Pont de la Machine in Geneva will host an exhibition on fibre optics, sponsored by SIG. CERN, a major user of this technology, was invited to take part with a presentation of some of its scintillating fibre detectors.   The CERN module, designed for the SIG's fibre optics exhibition. Visitors can discover a cosmic ray detector (on the right) and its oscilloscope (on the left), as well as one of the ALFA detector modules (at the back). The Services industriels genevois (SIG), who are in the process of deploying an optical fibre network in Geneva, have decided to showcase this technology with an exhibition entitled “Fibre optique – Le futur à portée de main.” The exhibition, which will be open to the public from 26 April to 20 June, is being held at the Espace ExpoSIG, at the Pont de la Machine in the centre of Geneva. “CERN’s Physics Department was approached by SIG at the start of this year to ...

  15. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  16. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  17. Optical coherence tomography – current and future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhi, Mehreen; Duker, Jay S.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has revolutionized the clinical practice of ophthalmology. It is a noninvasive imaging technique that provides high-resolution, cross-sectional images of the retina, retinal nerve fiber layer and the optic nerve head. This review discusses the present applications of the commercially available spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) systems in the diagnosis and management of retinal diseases, with particular emphasis on choroidal imaging. Future directions of OCT technology and their potential clinical uses are discussed. Recent findings Analysis of the choroidal thickness in healthy eyes and disease states such as age-related macular degeneration, central serous chorioretinopathy, diabetic retinopathy and inherited retinal dystrophies has been successfully achieved using SD-OCT devices with software improvements. Future OCT innovations such as longer-wavelength OCT systems including the swept-source technology, along with Doppler OCT and en-face imaging, may improve the detection of subtle microstructural changes in chorioretinal diseases by improving imaging of the choroid. Summary Advances in OCT technology provide for better understanding of pathogenesis, improved monitoring of progression and assistance in quantifying response to treatment modalities in diseases of the posterior segment of the eye. Further improvements in both hardware and software technologies should further advance the clinician’s ability to assess and manage chorioretinal diseases. PMID:23429598

  18. Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

    2014-01-01

    Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain. The majority of patients with DOA harbour pathogenic mutations within OPA1, a nuclear gene that codes for a multifunctional inner mitochondrial membrane protein. Despite their contrasting genetic basis, LHON and DOA share overlapping pathological and clinical features that serve to highlight the striking tissue-specific vulnerability of the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) layer to disturbed mitochondrial function. In addition to severe visual loss secondary to progressive optic nerve degeneration, a subgroup of patients will also develop a more aggressive syndromic phenotype marked by significant neurological deficits. The management of LHON and DOA remains largely supportive, but major advances in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning RGC loss in these two disorders are paving the way for novel forms of treatment aimed at halting or reversing visual deterioration at different stages of the disease process. In addition to neuroprotective strategies for rescuing RGCs from irreversible cell death, innovative in vitro fertilisation techniques are providing the tantalising prospect of preventing the germline transmission of pathogenic mtDNA mutations, eradicating in so doing the risk of disease in future generations. PMID:24603424

  19. Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

    2014-05-01

    Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain. The majority of patients with DOA harbour pathogenic mutations within OPA1, a nuclear gene that codes for a multifunctional inner mitochondrial membrane protein. Despite their contrasting genetic basis, LHON and DOA share overlapping pathological and clinical features that serve to highlight the striking tissue-specific vulnerability of the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) layer to disturbed mitochondrial function. In addition to severe visual loss secondary to progressive optic nerve degeneration, a subgroup of patients will also develop a more aggressive syndromic phenotype marked by significant neurological deficits. The management of LHON and DOA remains largely supportive, but major advances in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning RGC loss in these two disorders are paving the way for novel forms of treatment aimed at halting or reversing visual deterioration at different stages of the disease process. In addition to neuroprotective strategies for rescuing RGCs from irreversible cell death, innovative in vitro fertilisation techniques are providing the tantalising prospect of preventing the germline transmission of pathogenic mtDNA mutations, eradicating in so doing the risk of disease in future generations.

  20. Prediction of optical properties of paints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ďurikovič, Roman; Ágošton, Tomaš

    2007-09-01

    The field of predictive rendering concerns itself with those methods of image synthesis which yield results that do not only look real, but are also radiometrically correct renditions of nature, i.e., which are accurate predictions of what a real scene would look like under given lighting conditions. A real coating consists of pigments, effect pigments, clear lacquer and glaze. A novel and unique combination of real parameters that are commonly measured in the industry and a theoretical reflectance model consisting of measurable parameters is required. Here, the authors design perception parameters and put them into well known surface reflection functions such as He and Torrance. The original contributions are the study of the sub-surface scattering of real paint and the prediction of its appearance in rendered images by the proposed model of light reflection beneath the paint surface.

  1. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  2. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  3. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  4. Does magnetic resonance imaging predict future low back pain?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffens, D; Hancock, M J; Maher, C G

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has the potential to identify pathology responsible for low back pain (LBP). However, the importance of findings on MRI remains controversial. We aimed to systematically review whether MRI findings of the lumbar spine predict future LBP in different samples...

  5. Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Larry J.

    After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

  6. Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

    1999-01-01

    We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

  7. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

  8. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  9. Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future; Toxicologie predictive: les voies du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N' Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A. [and others

    2010-07-01

    Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

  10. Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catania, Kenneth C.

    2010-01-01

    Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

  11. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  12. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  13. Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z

    1999-09-01

    In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

  14. Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Clifford

    2014-12-01

    Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Freeform Optics: current challenges for future serial production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, C.; Köhler, T.; Roth, E.

    2017-10-01

    One of the major developments in optics industry recently is the commercial manufacturing of freeform surfaces for optical mid- and high performance systems. The loss of limitation on rotational symmetry enables completely new optical design solutions - but causes completely new challenges for the manufacturer too. Adapting the serial production from radial-symmetric to freeform optics cannot be done just by the extension of machine capabilities and software for every process step. New solutions for conventional optics productions or completely new process chains are necessary.

  16. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

  17. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  18. Empirical prediction of optical transitions in metallic armchair SWCNTs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. Ahmed Jamal

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a quick and effective method to calculate the second and third optical transition energies of metallic armchair single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNT is presented. In this proposed method, the transition energy of any armchair SWCNT can be predicted directly by knowing its one chiral index as both of its chiral indices are same. The predicted results are compared with recent experimental data and found to be accurate over a wide diameter range from 2 to 4.8 nm. The empirical equation proposed here is also compared with that proposed in earlier works. The proposed way may help the research works or applications where information of optical transitions of armchair metallic nanotubes is needed.

  19. Prediction of future nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.; Gordon, D.

    2006-01-01

    Groundwater that feeds streams and springs in the Lake Rotorua catchment has 15-130 years mean residence times in the aquifer. These long residence times of the water in the ground result in large time-delays of nitrogen loading from historical agricultural and urban development in the catchment. Currently observed increases in nitrogen loading in surface and groundwater are mostly due to the delayed impact of catchment development that occurred around 55 years ago. Further increases in nitrogen are expected. The time-dependence of the arrival of water to the lake that was recharged since landuse development in the 1950's was calculated using the age distribution of the water derived from tritium, CFC and SF 6 data. The arrival of post-landuse water over time was then used to estimate the nitrogen load to the lake for the time prior to landuse development, for the time since then, and for the future. Excellent matches between measured N loads over the last decades and predicted loads demonstrate the robustness of the approach, and that the model assumptions used for future predictions are reasonable. Future groundwater-derived nutrient loads are listed below. No changes are expected in phosphorus loads via groundwater as long as landuse-derived P continues to be absorbed by the volcanic soils in the catchment. The nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua prior to major landuse development in the catchment in the 1950's was calculated to be 60 t/year. This has slowly increased to a present nitrogen load of 420 t/y, delayed by long travel times of the groundwater. The nitrogen loading is expected to further increase to 532 t/y in 50 years (25% increase from current), 572 t/y in 100 years (35% increase from current), and to 619 t/y at steady-state (47% increase from current). About 75% of the groundwater-derived nitrogen loading at steady-state enters Lake Rotorua via the nine major streams, and about 20% enters the lake from direct groundwater inflow to the lake bed. The

  20. Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grönwall, C.; Schwering, P.B.; Rantakokko, J.; Benoist, K.W.; Kemp, R.A.W.; Steinvall, O.; Letalick, D.; Björkert, S.

    2013-01-01

    In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of

  1. Predicting the future development of depression or PTSD after injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Therese S; Ruzek, Josef; Ackerson, Theimann; Wiebe, Douglas J; Winston, Flaura; Kassam-Adams, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to develop a predictive screener that when given soon after injury will accurately differentiate those who will later develop depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from those who will not. This study used a prospective, longitudinal cohort design. Subjects were randomly selected from all injured patients in the emergency department; the majority was assessed within 1 week postinjury with a short predictive screener, followed with in-person interviews after 3 and 6 months to determine the emergence of depression or PTSD within 6 months after injury. A total of 192 completed a risk factor survey at baseline; 165 were assessed over 6 months. Twenty-six subjects [15.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.2-21.3] were diagnosed with depression, four (2.4%, 95% CI 0.7-5.9) with PTSD and one with both. The final eight-item predictive screener was derived; optimal cutoff scores were ≥2 (of 4) depression risk items and ≥3 (of 5) PTSD risk items. The final screener demonstrated excellent sensitivity and moderate specificity both for clinically significant symptoms and for the diagnoses of depression and PTSD. A simple screener that can help identify those patients at highest risk for future development of PTSD and depression postinjury allows the judicious allocation of costly mental health resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future

    OpenAIRE

    Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

    2014-01-01

    Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain...

  3. Fiber optic sensors current status and future possibilities

    CERN Document Server

    Ikezawa, Satoshi; Corres, Jesus

    2017-01-01

    This book describes important recent developments in fiber optic sensor technology and examines established and emerging applications in a broad range of fields and markets, including power engineering, chemical engineering, bioengineering, biomedical engineering, and environmental monitoring. Particular attention is devoted to niche applications where fiber optic sensors are or soon will be able to compete with conventional approaches. Beyond novel methods for the sensing of traditional parameters such as strain, temperature, and pressure, a variety of new ideas and concepts are proposed and explored. The significance of the advent of extended infrared sensors is discussed, and individual chapters focus on sensing at THz frequencies and optical sensing based on photonic crystal structures. Another important topic is the resonances generated when using thin films in conjunction with optical fibers, and the enormous potential of sensors based on lossy mode resonances, surface plasmon resonances, and long-range...

  4. Quasi-optical gyrotron: present status and future prospect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran, M.Q.

    1989-01-01

    A review of the main experiments on quasi-optical gyrotron is presented. Methods to improve the efficiency (pencil beam electron gun and depressed collector) will be discussed. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 10 refs

  5. X-Ray Optics: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, William W.

    2010-01-01

    X-ray astronomy started with a small collimated proportional counter atop a rocket in the early 1960s. It was immediately recognized that focusing X-ray optics would drastically improve both source location accuracy and source detection sensitivity. In the past 5 decades, X-ray astronomy has made significant strides in achieving better angular resolution, large photon collection area, and better spectral and timing resolutions, culminating in the three currently operating X-ray observatories: Chandra, XMM/Newton, and Suzaku. In this talk I will give a brief history of X-ray optics, concentrating on the characteristics of the optics of these three observatories. Then I will discuss current X-ray mirror technologies being developed in several institutions. I will end with a discussion of the optics for the International X-ray Observatory that I have been developing at Goddard Space Flight Center.

  6. Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

    2014-01-01

    A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

  7. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  8. Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

    2016-04-12

    A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. Through a glass darkly: predicting the future of radiation oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Lester J.

    1995-01-01

    To position ourselves professionally for the inevitable transition to managed care demands serious self-appraisal. Like most procedural medical specialties, radiation oncology is currently ill prepared for a capitated system of payment. To prosper under capitation, we need to increase the utility of radiation therapy per unit cost. This can be achieved by making the following adaptive responses: (a) we must ensure that the needs of medical practice drive the use of costly technology and not vice versa; (b) we must subordinate firmly held beliefs and prejudices to solid scientific data and be prepared to modify our practice when more cost-effective alternatives exist; and (c) we must be increasingly conscious of outcome, not process, in deciding among treatment options; and (d) we must acknowledge the need to prioritize the use of finite resources so that the maximum effort is expended on those who have the most to gain from treatment. These changes will permit us to develop guidelines for appropriate use of radiation therapy, and to demonstrate the excellent value of the service we can provide, which is the ultimate key to success. Though the future may at times seem bleak, we can shape it with our actions: the best way to predict the future is to create it

  10. Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

  11. Laser startup optics for Baseball II and future mirror machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, A.M.; Chargin, A.K.; Brown, N.J.

    1975-01-01

    The laser startup system for Baseball II-T uses a 300-J CO 2 laser to hit a 100-μ diameter pellet with a laser power density on the order of 10 13 W/cm 2 . The laser is a 20-cm diameter unstable resonator transversely excited (TEA) oscillator. The beam is split and then focused using off-axis parabolas. The symmetric configuration and central obscuration of the CO 2 beam allow coaxial alignment and pellet detection optics. This experiment primarily uses commercially available systems and components. Optical elements were fabricated both by direct machining and standard polishing techniques. The laser and optical systems are directly scalable to reactor requirements using demonstrated technologies

  12. Nonlinear Silicon Photonic Signal Processing Devices for Future Optical Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosimo Lacava

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a review on silicon-based nonlinear devices for all optical nonlinear processing of complex telecommunication signals. We discuss some recent developments achieved by our research group, through extensive collaborations with academic partners across Europe, on optical signal processing using silicon-germanium and amorphous silicon based waveguides as well as novel materials such as silicon rich silicon nitride and tantalum pentoxide. We review the performance of four wave mixing wavelength conversion applied on complex signals such as Differential Phase Shift Keying (DPSK, Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK, 16-Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM and 64-QAM that dramatically enhance the telecom signal spectral efficiency, paving the way to next generation terabit all-optical networks.

  13. Silicon pore optics for future x-ray telescopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wille, Eric; Bavdaz, Marcos; Wallace, Kotska

    2017-01-01

    arcsec or better. These specifications can only be achieved with a novel technology like Silicon Pore Optics, which is being developed by ESA together with a consortium of European industry. Silicon Pore Optics are made of commercial Si wafers using process technology adapted from the semiconductor...... industry. We present the recent upgrades made to the manufacturing processes and equipment, ranging from the manufacture of single mirror plates towards complete focusing mirror modules mounted in flight configuration, and results from first vibration tests. The performance of the mirror modules is tested...

  14. Silicon pore optics for future x-ray telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wille, Eric; Bavdaz, Marcos; Wallace, Kotska; Shortt, Brian; Collon, Maximilien; Ackermann, Marcelo; Günther, Ramses; Olde Riekerink, Mark; Koelewijn, Arenda; Haneveld, Jeroen; van Baren, Coen; Erhard, Markus; Kampf, Dirk; Christensen, Finn; Krumrey, Michael; Freyberg, Michael; Burwitz, Vadim

    2017-11-01

    Lightweight X-ray Wolter optics with a high angular resolution will enable the next generation of X-ray telescopes in space. The candidate mission ATHENA (Advanced Telescope for High Energy Astrophysics) required a mirror assembly of 1 m2 effective area (at 1 keV) and an angular resolution of 10 arcsec or better. These specifications can only be achieved with a novel technology like Silicon Pore Optics, which is being developed by ESA together with a consortium of European industry. Silicon Pore Optics are made of commercial Si wafers using process technology adapted from the semiconductor industry. We present the recent upgrades made to the manufacturing processes and equipment, ranging from the manufacture of single mirror plates towards complete focusing mirror modules mounted in flight configuration, and results from first vibration tests. The performance of the mirror modules is tested at X-ray facilities that were recently extended to measure optics at a focal distance up to 20 m.

  15. A Review on Predicting Ground PM2.5 Concentration Using Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Chu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study reviewed the prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 from satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD and summarized the advantages and limitations of these predicting models. A total of 116 articles were included from 1436 records retrieved. The number of such studies has been increasing since 2003. Among these studies, four predicting models were widely used: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR (25 articles, Mixed-Effect Model (MEM (23 articles, Chemical Transport Model (CTM (16 articles and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR (10 articles. We found that there is no so-called best model among them and each has both advantages and limitations. Regarding the prediction accuracy, MEM performs the best, while MLR performs worst. CTM predicts PM2.5 better on a global scale, while GWR tends to perform well on a regional level. Moreover, prediction performance can be significantly improved by combining meteorological variables with land use factors of each region, instead of only considering meteorological variables. In addition, MEM has advantages in dealing with the AOD data with missing values. We recommend that with the help of higher resolution AOD data, future works could be focused on developing satellite-based predicting models for the prediction of historical PM2.5 and other air pollutants.

  16. Optical coherence tomography: a potential tool to predict premature rupture of fetal membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micili, Serap C; Valter, Markus; Oflaz, Hakan; Ozogul, Candan; Linder, Peter; Föckler, Nicole; Artmann, Gerhard M; Digel, Ilya; Artmann, Aysegul T

    2013-04-01

    A fundamental question addressed in this study was the feasibility of preterm birth prediction based on a noncontact investigation of fetal membranes in situ. Although the phenomena of preterm birth and the premature rupture of the fetal membrane are well known, currently, there are no diagnostic tools for their prediction. The aim of this study was to assess whether optical coherence tomography could be used for clinical investigations of high-risk pregnancies. The thickness of fetal membranes was measured in parallel by optical coherence tomography and histological techniques for the following types of birth: normal births, preterm births without premature ruptures and births at full term with premature rupture of membrane. Our study revealed that the membrane thickness correlates with the birth type. Normal births membranes were statistically significantly thicker than those belonging to the other two groups. Thus, in spite of almost equal duration of gestation of the normal births and the births at full term with premature rupture, the corresponding membrane thicknesses differed. This difference is possibly related to previously reported water accumulation in the membranes. The optical coherence tomography results were encouraging, suggesting that this technology could be used in future to predict and distinguish between different kinds of births.

  17. Applications of photonic crystal fibers in optical communications - What is in the future?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard; Lin, Chinlon

    2005-01-01

    Superior control of guiding properties in photonic-crystal fibers led to several interesting applications in optical communications ranging from nonlinear optical signal processing to high-power fiber amplifiers. This paper will review recent developments and discuss the future possibilities....

  18. A new generation of optical diagnostics for bladder cancer: technology, diagnostic accuracy, and future applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cauberg, Evelyne C. C.; de Bruin, Daniël M.; Faber, Dirk J.; van Leeuwen, Ton G.; de La Rosette, Jean J. M. C. H.; de Reijke, Theo M.

    2009-01-01

    CONTEXT: New developments in optical diagnostics have a potential for less invasive and improved detection of bladder cancer. OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of the technology and diagnostic yield of recently developed optical diagnostics for bladder cancer and to outline their potential future

  19. COSIGN – developing an optical software controlled data plane for future large-scale datacenter networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galili, Michael; Kamchevska, Valerija; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2015-01-01

    This talk will present the work of the EU project COSIGN targeting the development of optical data plane solutions for future high-capacity datacenter networks (DCNs). Optical data planes with high capacity and high flexibility through software control are developed in order to enable a coherent...

  20. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

    2005-05-01

    forecast information: (1) the Monthly Industrial Meteorology Information Magazine (MIMIM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (2) the Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS), and (3) the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each of these forecasts is issued in a unique format: (1) MIMIM is a most-probable-event forecast, (2) GDAPS is a single series of deterministic forecasts, and (3) NCEP is an ensemble of deterministic forecasts. Other minor issues include how long the initial conditions influences the ESP accuracy, and how many ESP scenarios are needed to obtain the best accuracy. This presentation also addresses some future research that is needed for ESP in Korea.

  1. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents’ Future Affective Experience during Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M.; Levine, Linda J.; Schneider, Margaret

    2018-01-01

    Purpose Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents’ feelings during exercise. Method During the first semester of the school year, we assessed sixth grade students’ (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test, and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the second semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Results Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise, and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. Conclusion These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences. PMID:28494196

  2. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

    2017-09-01

    Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

  3. Burst switched optical networks supporting legacy and future service types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franzl, Gerald; Hayat, Faisal; Holynski, Tomasz

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on the principles and the paradigm of OBS an overview addressing expectable performance and application issues is presented. Proposals on OBS were published over a decade and the presented techniques spread into many directions. The paper comprises discussions of several challenges that ...... and found capable to overcome shortcomings of recent proposals. In conclusion, an OBS that offers different connection types may support most client demands within a sole optical network layer....

  4. Workshop on Future Directions for Optical Information Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-03-01

    the proslective market for such devices has not generally been viewed as large enough to encourage tne type of major investments that stimulated...of the channel waveguides n SAW propagation is being invest - igated. Further discussion on integrated-cptic, acoLuto-optic devices is given in a paper...are really looking at fundemental limitations and the tools are there to answer some of these questions. C: There are two research programs in our

  5. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  6. Short wavelength optics for future free electron lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attwood, D.T.

    1984-04-01

    Although much free-electron laser work is directed toward achieving sufficient single-pass gain to be useful for research purposes, the availability of mirrors of high reflectance for the vacuum ultraviolet and soft x-ray regime would make resonant cavities a possibility. In addition, as in ordinary synchrotron radiation work, mirrors are required for the construction of realistic experiments and for beam manipulation purposes such as folding and extraction. The Working Group discussed a number of approaches to reflecting optics for free electron lasers, which are summarized here, and described in some detail. 16 references, 2 figures

  7. Architectural Options for a Future Deep Space Optical Communications Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, B. L.; Benjamin, T.; Scozzafava, J.; Khatri, F.; Sharma, J.; Parvin, B.; Liebrecht, P. E.; Fitzgerald, R. J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of different options at Earth to provide Deep Space optical communication services. It is based mainly on work done for the Mars Laser Communications Demonstration (MLCD) Project, a joint project between NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (JPL), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). It also reports preliminary conclusions from the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System Continuation Study at GSFC. A lasercom flight terminal will be flown on the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO) to be launched by NASA in 2009, and will be the first high rate deep space demonstration of this revolutionary technology.

  8. High resolution observations using adaptive optics: Achievements and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankarasubramanian, K.; Rimmele, T.

    2008-06-01

    Over the last few years, several interesting observations were obtained with the help of solar Adaptive Optics (AO). In this paper, few observations made using the solar AO are enlightened and briefly discussed. A list of disadvantages with the current AO system are presented. With telescopes larger than 1.5 m expected during the next decade, there is a need to develop the existing AO technologies for large aperture telescopes. Some aspects of this development are highlighted. Finally, the recent AO developments in India are also presented.

  9. Monolithic InP-based fast optical switch module for optical networks of the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xi, Chen; Regan, James; Durrant, Tim

    2015-01-01

    We summarized the development of Venture Photonics’ sub-10 ns fast optical switch which demonstrates low insertion loss, excellent crosstalk level and polarization independent switching performance.......We summarized the development of Venture Photonics’ sub-10 ns fast optical switch which demonstrates low insertion loss, excellent crosstalk level and polarization independent switching performance....

  10. Optic nerve magnetisation transfer ratio after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yejun Wang

    Full Text Available Magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR can reveal the degree of proton exchange between free water and macromolecules and was suggested to be pathological informative. We aimed to investigate changes in optic nerve MTR over 12 months following acute optic neuritis (ON and to determine whether MTR measurements can predict clinical and paraclinical outcomes at 6 and 12 months. Thirty-seven patients with acute ON were studied within 2 weeks of presentation and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Assessments included optic nerve MTR, retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL thickness, multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP amplitude and latency and high (100% and low (2.5% contrast letter acuity. Eleven healthy controls were scanned twice four weeks apart for comparison with patients. Patient unaffected optic nerve MTR did not significantly differ from controls at any time-point. Compared to the unaffected nerve, affected optic nerve MTR was significantly reduced at 3 months (mean percentage interocular difference = -9.24%, p = 0.01, 6 months (mean = -12.48%, p<0.0001 and 12 months (mean = -7.61%, p = 0.003. Greater reduction in MTR at 3 months in patients was associated with subsequent loss of high contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.0003 and 12 (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.009 months, low contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.047 months, and RNFL thinning at 12 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.044 months. Stratification of individual patient MTR time courses based on flux over 12 months (stable, putative remyelination and putative degeneration predicted RNFL thinning at 12 months (F(2,32 = 3.59, p = 0.02. In conclusion, these findings indicate that MTR flux after acute ON is predictive of axonal degeneration and visual disability outcomes.

  11. Sensory prediction on a whiskered robot: A tactile analogy to "optic flow"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Schroeder

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available When an animal moves an array of sensors (e.g., the hand, the eye through the environment, spatial and temporal gradients of sensory data are related by the velocity of the moving sensory array. In vision, the relationship between spatial and temporal brightness gradients is quantified in the optical flow equation. In the present work, we suggest an analog to optical flow for the rodent vibrissal (whisker array, in which the perceptual intensity that flows over the array is bending moment. Changes in bending moment are directly related to radial object distance, defined as the distance between the base of a whisker and the point of contact with the object. Using both simulations and a 1x5 array (row of artificial whiskers, we demonstrate that local object curvature can be estimated based on differences in radial distance across the array. We then develop two algorithms, both based on tactile flow, to predict the future contact points that will be obtained as the whisker array translates along the object. The translation of the robotic whisker array represents the rat's head velocity. The first algorithm uses a calculation of the local object slope, while the second uses a calculation of the local object curvature. Both algorithms successfully predict future contact points for simple surfaces. The algorithm based on curvature was found to more accurately predict future contact points as surfaces became more irregular. We quantify the inter-related effects of whisker spacing and the object’s spatial frequencies, and examine the issues that arise in the presence of real-world noise, friction, and slip.

  12. Extremely Lightweight Segmented Membrane Optical Shell Fabrication Technology for Future IR to Optical Telescope, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose that the Membrane Optical Shell Technology (MOST) substrate fabrication approach be extended with a specific focus on advanced off-axis very light weight,...

  13. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  14. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  15. Center for Applied Optics Studies: an investment in Indiana's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, Delbert J., II; Khorana, Brij M.

    1992-05-01

    To understand the involvement of the State of Indiana with the Center for Applied Optics at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, it is best to start with an explanation of the Indiana Corporation for Science and Technology (CST), its basic charter and its programs. Established in 1982 as a private not-for-profit corporation, CST was formed to promote economic development within the State of Indiana. Two programs that were initially a part of CST's charter and supported with state dollars were a seed capital investment program, aimed at developing new products and processes, and the establishment of university centers of technology development. The former was conceived to create jobs and new, technologically advanced industries in Indiana. The latter was an attempt to encourage technology transfer from the research laboratories of the state universities to the production lines of Indiana industry. Recently, CST has undergone a name change to the Indiana Business Modernization and Technology Corporation (BMT) and adopted an added responsibility of proactive assistance to small- and medium-sized businesses in order to enhance the state's industrial competitiveness.

  16. Negative optical inertia for enhancing the sensitivity of future gravitational-wave detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalili, Farid; Danilishin, Stefan; Mueller-Ebhardt, Helge; Miao Haixing; Zhao Chunnong; Chen Yanbei

    2011-01-01

    We consider enhancing the sensitivity of future gravitational-wave detectors by using double optical spring. When the power, detuning and bandwidth of the two carriers are chosen appropriately, the effect of the double optical spring can be described as a 'negative inertia', which cancels the positive inertia of the test masses and thus increases their response to gravitational waves. This allows us to surpass the free-mass standard quantum limit (SQL) over a broad frequency band, through signal amplification, rather than noise cancellation, which has been the case for all broadband SQL-beating schemes so far considered for gravitational-wave detectors. The merit of such signal amplification schemes lies in the fact that they are less susceptible to optical losses than noise-cancellation schemes. We show that it is feasible to demonstrate such an effect with the Gingin High Optical Power Test Facility, and it can eventually be implemented in future advanced GW detectors.

  17. Predictive Toxicology: Current Status and Future Outlook (EBI ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA. Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA.

  18. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  19. Hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future: overview of session and proceeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. H. S. Chiew

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of this IAHS symposium and PIAHS proceeding on "hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future". The paper provides a brief review of research on this topic, presents approaches used to account for nonstationarity when extrapolating models to predict the future, and summarises the papers in this session and proceeding.

  20. Brighter future predicted at nuclear meetings in Chicago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, H.

    1993-01-01

    This article discusses the future of nuclear power in the United States and the rest of the world. It is a summary of a meeting of the American Nuclear Society/European Nuclear Society in Chicago. Some topics discussed include advanced reactor design, public relations, and nuclear safety

  1. Does muscle strength predict future musculoskeletal disorders and sickness absence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, A; Sell, L; Hansen, J V

    2012-01-01

    High muscle strength is considered relevant for preventing musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence. However, prospective studies on the association between muscle strength and future musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence are few and show contrasting results....

  2. Polymer Optical Fiber Sensor and the Prediction of Sensor Response Utilizing Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haroglu, Derya

    characteristics: reproducibility, accuracy, selectivity, aging, and resolution. Artificial neural network (ANN), a mathematical model formed by mimicking the human nervous system, was used to predict the sensor response. Qwiknet (version 2.23) software was used to develop ANNs and according to the results of Qwiknet the prediction performances for training and testing data sets were 75%, and 83.33% respectively. In this dissertation, Chapter 1 describes the worldwide plastic optical fiber (POF) and fiber optic sensor markets, and the existing textile structures used in fiber optic sensing design particularly for the applications of biomedical and structural health monitoring (SHM). Chapter 2 provides a literature review in detail on polymer optical fibers, fiber optic sensors, and occupancy sensing in the passenger seats of automobiles. Chapter 3 includes the research objectives. Chapter 4 presents the response of POF to tensile loading, bending, and cyclic tensile loading with discussion parts. Chapter 5 includes an e-mail based survey to prioritize customer needs in a Quality Function Deployment (QFD) format utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and survey results. Chapter 6 describes the POF sensor design and the behavior of it under pressure. Chapter 7 provides a data analysis based on the experimental results of Chapter 6. Chapter 8 presents the summary of this study and recommendations for future work.

  3. Prediction of future dispute concerning nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-04-01

    This investigation is the third research on the public acceptance of nuclear power generation by the National Congress on Social Economics. In this study, how the energy dispute including that concerning nuclear power generation will develop in 1980s and 1990s, how the form of dispute and the point of controversy will change, were predicted. Though the maintenance of the concord of groups strongly regulates the behavior of people, recently they have become to exercise individual rights frequently. The transition to the society of dispute is the natural result of the modernization of society and the increase of richness. The proper prediction of social problems and the planning and execution of proper countermeasures are very important. The background, objective, basic viewpoint, range and procedure of this investigation, the change of social dispute, the history of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the basic viewpoint in the prediction of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the social situation in 1980s, the prediction and avoidance of the dispute in view of social and energy situations, and the fundamental strategy for seeking a clue to the solution in 1980s and 1990s are described. The establishment of neutral mediation organs and the flexible technologies of nuclear reactors are necessary. (Kako, I.)

  4. Trait Impressions as Heuristics for Predicting Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Leonard S.

    1996-01-01

    The dispositionist bias manifests itself when behavior is overattributed to dispositions, and when contextual factors are underused when predicting behavior. Psychological processes underlying the former bias have been most thoroughly examined. Three studies support the hypothesis that trait implications of past behavior function as heuristics…

  5. Selection procedures in sports: Improving predictions of athletes’ future performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Hartigh, Jan Rudolf; Niessen, Anna; Frencken, Wouter; Meijer, Rob R.

    The selection of athletes has been a central topic in sports sciences for decades. Yet, little consideration has been given to the theoretical underpinnings and predictive validity of the procedures. In this paper, we evaluate current selection procedures in sports given what we know from the

  6. History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Raymond N.

    1997-03-01

    This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

  7. Optical spectroscopy: current advances and future applications in cancer diagnostics and therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, Daniel; Evers, D.J.; Hendriks, B.; Lucassen, G.W.; Lucassen, Gerald; Ruers, Theo J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Optical spectroscopy (OS) is a tissue-sensing technique that could enhance cancer diagnosis and treatment in the near future. With OS, tissue is illuminated with a selected light spectrum. Different tissue types can be distinguished from each other based on specific changes in the reflected light

  8. Nanotoxicity prediction using computational modelling - review and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Bhavna; Srivastava, Sumit

    2018-04-01

    Nanomaterials has stimulated various outlooks for future in a number of industries and scientific ventures. A number of applications such as cosmetics, medicines, and electronics are employing nanomaterials due to their various compelling properties. The unending growth of nanomaterials usage in our daily life has escalated the health and environmental risks. Early nanotoxicity recognition is a big challenge. Various researches are going on in the field of nanotoxicity, which comprised of several problems such as inadequacy of proper datasets, lack of appropriate rules and characterization of nanomaterials. Computational modelling would be beneficial asset for nanomaterials researchers because it can foresee the toxicity, rest on previous experimental data. In this study, we have reviewed sufficient work demonstrating a proper pathway to proceed with QSAR analysis of Nanomaterials for toxicity modelling. The paper aims at providing comprehensive insight of Nano QSAR, various theories, tools and approaches used, along with an outline for future research directions to work on.

  9. About flat telescopic optics for the future operation of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Fartoukh, Stephane; Ponce, Laurette; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio

    2018-01-01

    This report discusses and motivates the possible deployment of flat collision optics for the future operation of the LHC. Performance reach estimates are presented, showing a possible improvement of the peak luminosity by 20 % at constant beam parameters in comparison with round optics, and a virtual luminosity reaching 1.0 × 1E35 cm−2s−1 assuming the availability, inject-ability and ramp-ability up to 7.0 TeV of the full LIU beam by the end of Run III. These estimates are supported by a certain number of simulation results, including beam-beam effects, and operational aspects based on the first LHC machine development session which took place with probe beams and flat optics in 2017. The main expected optics limitations, together with possible mitigation measures, are also analyzed in details.

  10. About flat telescopic optics for the future operation of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Fartoukh, Stephane; Ponce, Laurette; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio

    2018-01-01

    This report discusses and motivates the possible deployment of flat collision optics for the future operation of the LHC. Performance reach estimates are presented, showing a possible improvement of the peak luminosity by 20 % at constant beam parameters in comparison with round optics, and a virtual luminosity reaching 1.0 × 1035 cm−2s−1 assuming the availability, inject-ability and ramp-ability up to 7.0 TeV of the full LIU beam by the end of Run III. These estimates are supported by a certain number of simulation results, including beam-beam effects, and operational aspects based on the first LHC machine development session which took place with probe beams and flat optics in 2017. The main expected optics limitations, together with possible mitigation measures, are also analyzed in details.

  11. Using Data Mining to Predict Possible Future Depression Cases

    OpenAIRE

    Daimi, Kevin; Banitaan, Shadi

    2014-01-01

    Depression is a disorder characterized by misery and gloominess felt over a period of time. Some symptoms of depression overlap with somatic illnesses implying considerable difficulty in diagnosing it. This paper contributes to its diagnosis through the application of data mining, namely classification, to predict patients who will most likely develop depression or are currently suffering from depression. Synthetic data is used for this study. To acquire the results, the popular suite of mach...

  12. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  13. Predictive Factors for Visual Field Conversion: Comparison of Scanning Laser Polarimetry and Optical Coherence Tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, Theresa; Schrems-Hoesl, Laura M; Mardin, Christian Y; Laemmer, Robert; Horn, Folkert K; Kruse, Friedrich E; Schrems, Wolfgang A

    2018-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the ability of scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) to predict future visual field conversion of subjects with ocular hypertension and early glaucoma. All patients were recruited from the Erlangen glaucoma registry and examined using standard automated perimetry, 24-hour intraocular pressure profile, and optic disc photography. Peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFL) measurements were obtained by SLP (GDx-VCC) and SD-OCT (Spectralis OCT). Positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for morphologic parameters of SLP and SD-OCT. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and log-rank tests were performed to compare the survival distributions. Contingency tables and Venn-diagrams were calculated to compare the predictive ability. The study included 207 patients-75 with ocular hypertension, 85 with early glaucoma, and 47 controls. Median follow-up was 4.5 years. A total of 29 patients (14.0%) developed visual field conversion during follow-up. SLP temporal-inferior RNFL [0.667; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.281-0.935] and SD-OCT temporal-inferior RNFL (0.571; 95% CI, 0.317-0.802) achieved the highest PPV; nerve fiber indicator (0.923; 95% CI, 0.876-0.957) and SD-OCT mean (0.898; 95% CI, 0.847-0.937) achieved the highest NPV of all investigated parameters. The Kaplan-Meier curves confirmed significantly higher survival for subjects within normal limits of measurements of both devices (P<0.001). Venn diagrams tested with McNemar test statistics showed no significant difference for PPV (P=0.219) or NPV (P=0.678). Both GDx-VCC and SD-OCT demonstrate comparable results in predicting future visual field conversion if taking typical scans for GDx-VCC. In addition, the likelihood ratios suggest that GDx-VCC's nerve fiber indicator<30 may be the most useful parameter to confirm future nonconversion. (http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov number, NTC

  14. Digitization and its discontents: future shock in predictive oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Richard J

    2010-02-01

    Clinical cancer care is being transformed by a high-technology informatics revolution fought out between the forces of personalized (biomarker-guided) and depersonalized (bureaucracy-controlled) medicine. Factors triggering this conflict include the online proliferation of treatment algorithms, rising prices of biological drug therapies, increasing sophistication of genomic-based predictive tools, and the growing entrepreneurialism of offshore treatment facilities. The resulting Napster-like forces unleashed within the oncology marketplace will deliver incremental improvements in cost-efficacy to global healthcare consumers. There will also be a price to pay, however, as the rising wave of digitization encourages third-party payers to make more use of biomarkers for tightening reimbursement criteria. Hence, as in other digitally transformed industries, a new paradigm of professional service delivery-less centered on doctor-patient relationships than in the past, and more dependent on pricing and marketing for standardized biomarker-defined indications-seems set to emerge as the unpredicted deliverable from this brave new world of predictive oncology. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Empirical Relations for Optical Attenuation Prediction from Liquid Water Content of Fog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Khan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous measurements of the liquid water content (LWC and optical attenuation have been analyzed to predict optical attenuation caused by fog particles. Attenuation has been measured at two different wavelengths, 830 nm and 1550 nm, across co-located links. Five months measured data have been processed to assess power-law empirical models, which estimate optical attenuation from the LWC. The proposed models are compared with other published models and are demonstrated to perform sufficiently well to predict optical attenuation if the LWC values are available.

  16. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-07-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P 4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  17. Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

  18. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  19. Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Morin

    Full Text Available Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems.

  20. An Optical Lightning Simulator in an Electrified Cloud-Resolving Model to Prepare the Future Space Lightning Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovalo, Christophe; Defer, Eric; Pinty, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The future decade will see the launch of several space missions designed to monitor the total lightning activity. Among these missions, the American (Geostationary Lightning Mapper - GLM) and European (Lightning Imager - LI) optical detectors will be onboard geostationary satellites (GOES-R and MTG, respectively). For the first time, the total lightning activity will be monitored over the full Earth disk and at a very high temporal resolution (2 and 1 ms, respectively). Missions like the French Tool for the Analysis of Radiation from lightNIng and Sprites (TARANIS) and ISS-LIS will bring complementary information in order to better understand the lightning physics and to improve the weather prediction (nowcasting and forecasting). Such missions will generate a huge volume of new and original observations for the scientific community and weather prediction centers that have to be prepared. Moreover, before the launch of these missions, fundamental questions regarding the interpretation of the optical signal property and its relation to cloud optical thickness and lightning discharge processes need to be further investigated. An innovative approach proposed here is to use the synergy existing in the French MesoNH Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM). Indeed, MesoNH is one of the only CRM able to simulate the lifecycle of electrical charges generated within clouds through non-inductive charging process (dependent of the 1-moment microphysical scheme). The lightning flash geometry is based on a fractal law while the electrical field is diagnosed thanks to the Gauss' law. The lightning optical simulator is linked to the electrical scheme as the lightning radiance at 777.4 nm is a function of the lightning current, approximated by the charges neutralized along the lightning path. Another important part is the scattering of this signal by the hydrometeors (mainly ice particles) that is taken into account. Simulations at 1-km resolution are done over the Langmuir Laboratory (New

  1. Prediction of TARANIS Observations of TGF's and Optical Emissions from Red Sprites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    TARANIS (Tool for the Analysis of Radiation from Lightning and Sprites) is a French (CNES, Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales) micro-satellite that is scheduled for launch in 2009. This will be the first satellite that will measure coincident gamma-rays and optical emissions from atmospheric discharges. These measurements will provide important clues concerning the physics of discharges that produce gamma-rays and will provide more definitive evidence of the role of conventional breakdown versus runaway breakdown than is currently available. While a variety of discharges may be associated with Transient Gamma Ray Flashes (TGF's), this study will focus on emissions expected from red sprites. Future studies will focus on other types of discharges (for example, gigantic jets or blue jets) to see whether they should produce detectable signal levels at both gamma-ray and optical frequencies. The source of terrestrial TGF's is a matter of debate at this time. Many experts in the field have interpreted the data associated with the RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager) satellite to be indicative that the discharges associated with terrestrial gamma-rays are not associated with sprites. However, RHESSI was not designed for the purpose of collecting gamma-ray measurements from terrestrial discharges; does not possess a coincident optical measurement capability; and must average data over many events to predict a spectrum. We will present a statistical analysis of the relative efficiencies of the RHESSI and TARANIS satellite designs for the detection of TGF's associated with sprites. We will show results from a fully 2-D electromagnetic model (UNIMAX, the Unified Maxwell code) and an optical model (POEM, the Physics Based Optical Emission Model) to demonstrate the level of agreement between the simulations and the gamma-ray spectrum measurements and optical measurements (camera, photometer, and spectral measurements) for several different classes of

  2. Adults' future time perspective predicts engagement in physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Sarah T; Patrick, Julie Hicks

    2012-07-01

    Our aim was to examine how the relations among known predictors of physical activity, such as age, sex, and body mass index, interact with future time perspective (FTP) and perceived functional limitation to explain adults' engagement in physical activity. Self-report data from 226 adults (range 20-88 years) were collected to examine the hypothesis that a more expansive FTP is associated with engagement in physical activity. Results indicated a good fit of the data to the model χ(2) (4, N = 226) = 7.457, p = .14 and accounted for a moderate amount of variance in adults' physical activity (R(2) = 15.7). Specifically, results indicated that perceived functional limitation (β = -.140) and FTP (β = .162) were directly associated with physical activity. Age was indirectly associated with physical activity through its association with perceived functional limitation (β = -.264) and FTP (β = .541). Results indicate that FTP may play an important role in explaining engagement in health promoting behaviors across the life span. Researchers should consider additional constructs and perhaps adopt socioemotional selectivity theory when explaining adults' engagement in physical activity.

  3. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  4. Discovery Mondays - Simulations: using maths to predict the future

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    CERN's physicists often play with dice, using chance to simulate particle collisions and the tracks they will leave behind them in the detectors. Random number generators and various kinds of probability methods are just some of the mathematics tools physicists rely on to create random variables and predict events. The well-known Monte-Carlo simulation method derives its name from the games of chance for which the town of Monte-Carlo is famous. Particle physicists are not the only ones to make use of chance and probabilities. They have daily applications in many fields, both scientific and non-scientific, including climatology, cosmology and the world of finance. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the chances of learning more about the science of chance at the next Discovery Monday are very high! The event will be conducted in French. Join us at Microcosm (Reception, Building 33, Meyrin site) on Monday, 4 December from 7.30 p.m. to 9 p.m. Entrance is free http://www.cern.ch/LundisDecouverte...

  5. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  6. Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-10-01

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

    2017-08-07

    In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

  8. Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

    2015-02-01

    Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Quantum optical predictions in Q representation for Bell's type experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrero, M.; Marshall, T.W.

    1991-01-01

    Using the Q representation, the authors study the disagreement between quantum optical formalism and local realism and they show that the phenomenon of enhancement, first revealed by the local realist analysis, could receive a simple explanation if they use this particular version of the quantum formalism. Nevertheless, some fundamental difficulties remain

  10. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  11. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

    2007-09-01

    This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

  13. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Rajagopalan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  14. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  15. Polarization modeling and predictions for DKIST part 3: focal ratio and thermal dependencies of spectral polarization fringes and optic retardance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, David M.; Sueoka, Stacey R.

    2018-01-01

    Data products from high spectral resolution astronomical polarimeters are often limited by fringes. Fringes can skew derived magnetic field properties from spectropolarimetric data. Fringe removal algorithms can also corrupt the data if the fringes and object signals are too similar. For some narrow-band imaging polarimeters, fringes change the calibration retarder properties and dominate the calibration errors. Systems-level engineering tools for polarimetric instrumentation require accurate predictions of fringe amplitudes, periods for transmission, diattenuation, and retardance. The relevant instabilities caused by environmental, thermal, and optical properties can be modeled and mitigation tools developed. We create spectral polarization fringe amplitude and temporal instability predictions by applying the Berreman calculus and simple interferometric calculations to optics in beams of varying F/ number. We then apply the formalism to superachromatic six-crystal retarders in converging beams under beam thermal loading in outdoor environmental conditions for two of the world's largest observatories: the 10-m Keck telescope and the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST). DKIST will produce a 300-W optical beam, which has imposed stringent requirements on the large diameter six-crystal retarders, dichroic beamsplitters, and internal optics. DKIST retarders are used in a converging beam with F/ ratios between 8 and 62. The fringe spectral periods, amplitudes, and thermal models of retarder behavior assisted DKIST optical designs and calibration plans with future application to many astronomical spectropolarimeters. The Low Resolution Imaging Spectrograph with polarimetry instrument at Keck also uses six-crystal retarders in a converging F / 13 beam in a Cassegrain focus exposed to summit environmental conditions providing observational verification of our predictions.

  16. Passive Optical Access Networks: State of the Art and Future Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Muciaccia

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the very last years, optical access networks are growing very rapidly, from both the network operators and the research interests points of view. Fiber To The Home (FTTH is already a reality in plenty of real contexts and there has been a further stimulus to the proposal of new solutions and the investigation of new possibilities, in order to optimize network performance and reduce capital and operational expenditure. A complete and systematic overview of passive optical access networks is presented in this paper, concerning both the hot research topics and the main operative issues about the design guidelines and the deployment of Passive Optical Networks (PON architectures, nowadays the most commonly implemented approach to realize optical fiber links in the access networks. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages of different multiplexing techniques is discussed, with specific reference to WDM-based networks, almost universally considered as the enabling technology for future proof bandwidth requirements. An exhaustive summary is also given about the-state-of-the-art of modulation and encoding techniques recently proposed by the scientific community, as well as the open challenges (such as colorless and coolerless ONUs for telecom companies and international standardization compliance.

  17. Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

    2018-03-01

    Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

  18. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  19. Statistical learning methods for aero-optic wavefront prediction and adaptive-optic latency compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, W. Robert

    Since the early 1970's research in airborne laser systems has been the subject of continued interest. Airborne laser applications depend on being able to propagate a near diffraction-limited laser beam from an airborne platform. Turbulent air flowing over the aircraft produces density fluctuations through which the beam must propagate. Because the index of refraction of the air is directly related to the density, the turbulent flow imposes aberrations on the beam passing through it. This problem is referred to as Aero-Optics. Aero-Optics is recognized as a major technical issue that needs to be solved before airborne optical systems can become routinely fielded. This dissertation research specifically addresses an approach to mitigating the deleterious effects imposed on an airborne optical system by aero-optics. A promising technology is adaptive optics: a feedback control method that measures optical aberrations and imprints the conjugate aberrations onto an outgoing beam. The challenge is that it is a computationally-difficult problem, since aero-optic disturbances are on the order of kilohertz for practical applications. High control loop frequencies and high disturbance frequencies mean that adaptive-optic systems are sensitive to latency in sensors, mirrors, amplifiers, and computation. These latencies build up to result in a dramatic reduction in the system's effective bandwidth. This work presents two variations of an algorithm that uses model reduction and data-driven predictors to estimate the evolution of measured wavefronts over a short temporal horizon and thus compensate for feedback latency. The efficacy of the two methods are compared in this research, and evaluated against similar algorithms that have been previously developed. The best version achieved over 75% disturbance rejection in simulation in the most optically active flow region in the wake of a turret, considerably outperforming conventional approaches. The algorithm is shown to be

  20. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  1. Updates on the optics of the future hadron-hadron collider FCC-hh

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2093721; Boutin, David Jean Henri; Dalena, Barbara; Holzer, Bernhard; Langner, Andy Sven; Schulte, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    The FCC-hh (Future Hadron-Hadron Circular Collider) is one of the three options considered for the next generation accelerator in high-energy physics as recommended by the European Strategy Group. The layout of FCC-hh has been optimized to a more compact design following recommendations from civil engineering aspects. The updates on the first order and second order optics of the ring will be shown for collisions at the required centre-of-mass energy of 100 TeV. Special emphasis is put on the dispersion suppressors and general beam cleaning sections as well as first considerations of injection and extraction sections.

  2. Uncertainty in visual processes predicts geometrical optical illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fermüller, Cornelia; Malm, Henrik

    2004-03-01

    It is proposed in this paper that many geometrical optical illusions, as well as illusory patterns due to motion signals in line drawings, are due to the statistics of visual computations. The interpretation of image patterns is preceded by a step where image features such as lines, intersections of lines, or local image movement must be derived. However, there are many sources of noise or uncertainty in the formation and processing of images, and they cause problems in the estimation of these features; in particular, they cause bias. As a result, the locations of features are perceived erroneously and the appearance of the patterns is altered. The bias occurs with any visual processing of line features; under average conditions it is not large enough to be noticeable, but illusory patterns are such that the bias is highly pronounced. Thus, the broader message of this paper is that there is a general uncertainty principle which governs the workings of vision systems, and optical illusions are an artifact of this principle.

  3. Modelling and prediction of non-stationary optical turbulence behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doelman, N.J.; Osborn, J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a strong need to model the temporal fluctuations in turbulence parameters, for instance for scheduling, simulation and prediction purposes. This paper aims at modelling the dynamic behaviour of the turbulence coherence length r0, utilising measurement data from the Stereo-SCIDAR instrument

  4. Predicting future traffic offenders by pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving

    OpenAIRE

    Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina; Endriulaitienė, Auksė; Šeibokaitė, Laura; Markšaitytė, Rasa

    2017-01-01

    Worldwide statistics indicate that novice drivers are still one of the riskiest drivers’ groups as they highly contribute to road accidents and traffic rules violations. Thus, the psychological variables that allow predicting whether novice drivers will violate traffic rules are important in risky driving research. The aim of this study is to find out if pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving measured before obtaining driving license could predict future traffic offences during the firs...

  5. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2018-02-01

    Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  6. Space Active Optics: toward optimized correcting mirrors for future large spaceborne observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laslandes, Marie; Hugot, Emmanuel; Ferrari, Marc; Lemaitre, Gérard; Liotard, Arnaud

    2011-10-01

    Wave-front correction in optical instruments is often needed, either to compensate Optical Path Differences, off-axis aberrations or mirrors deformations. Active optics techniques are developed to allow efficient corrections with deformable mirrors. In this paper, we will present the conception of particular deformation systems which could be used in space telescopes and instruments in order to improve their performances while allowing relaxing specifications on the global system stability. A first section will be dedicated to the design and performance analysis of an active mirror specifically designed to compensate for aberrations that might appear in future 3m-class space telescopes, due to lightweight primary mirrors, thermal variations or weightless conditions. A second section will be dedicated to a brand new design of active mirror, able to compensate for given combinations of aberrations with a single actuator. If the aberrations to be corrected in an instrument and their evolutions are known in advance, an optimal system geometry can be determined thanks to the elasticity theory and Finite Element Analysis.

  7. 'Will I want these stickers tomorrow?' Preschoolers' ability to predict current and future needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Ordas, Gema

    2017-11-01

    Between 3 and 5 years of age, children develop the ability to plan for their own and others' future needs; however, they have great difficulty predicting future needs that conflict with current ones. Importantly, this ability has only been tested in the domain of physiological states (e.g., thirst). Therefore, it is still an open question whether in a different context preschoolers can disengage from their current needs to secure a different future one. In a Resource Allocation task, 4- and 5-year-olds had to distribute three types of rewards between themselves and another child for either 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward at beginning of the task. Only 5-year-olds could predict future needs that conflict with their current ones and act accordingly. Younger children's performance is discussed in the context of temporal and social distance. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? By the age of 4, children can plan for their own and others' future needs. Seven-year-old children still have difficulty predicting future physiological needs that conflict with their current ones. What does this study add? In a Resource Allocation task, preschoolers had to share rewards with another child for 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward. This study shows that 5-year-olds can predict future (non-physiological) needs that conflict with their current ones. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  8. The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

    2012-06-01

    This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

  9. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  10. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  11. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  12. Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2017-01-01

    Model predictive control is seen as one of the key future enabler in increasing energy efficiency in buildings. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the control for different formulations of the objective function. This comparison is made in a simulation study on a single buildi...

  13. This time it is different! Or not? : Discounting past data when predicting the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); E. Janssens (Eva)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe employ a simple method based on logistic weighted least squares to diagnose which past data are less or more useful for predicting the future course of a variable. A simulation experiment shows its merits. An illustration for monthly industrial production series for 17 countries

  14. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  15. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  16. Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, D; Story, A L

    1991-10-01

    Do depressed individuals make more realistic judgments than their nondepressed peers in real world settings? Depressed and nondepressed Ss in 2 studies were asked to make predictions about future actions and outcomes that might occur in their personal academic and social worlds. Both groups of Ss displayed overconfidence, that is, they overestimated the likelihood that their predictions would prove to be accurate. Of key importance, depressed Ss were less accurate in their predictions, and thus more overconfident, than their nondepressed counterparts. These differences arose because depressed Ss (a) were more likely to predict the occurrence of low base-rate events and (b) were less likely to be correct when they made optimistic predictions (i.e., stated that positive events would occur or that aversive outcomes would not). Discussion focuses on implications of these findings for the depressive realism hypothesis.

  17. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  18. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  19. Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

    2014-01-29

    Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

  20. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  1. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  3. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Ge, Y [University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

  4. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

  5. Prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jongcheol; Kim, Kyung-Hyun; Shin, Jae-Heon; Huh, Chul; Sung, Gun Yong

    2007-07-09

    A prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor is presented. An optical resonant reflection biosensor using a guided-mode resonance filter is one of the most promising label-free optical immunosensors due to a sharp reflectance peak and a high sensitivity to the changes of optical path length. We have simulated this type of biosensor using rigorous coupled wave theory to calculate the limit of detection of the thickness of the target protein layer. Theoretically, our biosensor has an estimated ability to detect thickness change approximately the size of typical antigen proteins. We have also investigated the effects of the absorption and divergence of the incident light on the detection ability of the biosensor.

  6. Development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. Current status and future subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Yasunori; Kusunoki, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Ikuo; Yanagi, Chihiro; Kinoshita, Ikuo; Iwasaki, Yoshito

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear licensees are required to maintain a prediction system during normal condition for using a nuclear emergency by the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention of government. With prediction of the incident progress, if the present condition of nuclear power plant is understood appropriately and it grows more serious with keeping the present situation, it is in predicting what kind of situation will be occurred in the near future, choosing the effective countermeasures against the coming threat, and understanding the time available of intervention time. Following the accident on September 30 1999 in the nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Tokai Village of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Institute of Nuclear Safety System started development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. We have performed technical applications and made improvements in nuclear emergency exercises and verified the developed systems using the observed values of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. As a result, our developed Incident Progress Prediction System was applied to nuclear emergency exercises and we accumulated knowledge and experience by which we improved the system to make predictions more rapidly and more precisely, including for example, the development of a prediction method for leak size of reactor coolant. On the other hand, if a rapidly progressing incident occurs, since end users need simple and quick predictions about the public's protection and evacuation areas, we developed the Radioactive Materials Release, Radiation Dose and Radiological Protection Area Prediction System which changed solving an inverse problem into a forward problem solution. In view of the water-level-decline incident of the spent fuel storage facility at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the spent fuel storage facility water level and the water temperature evaluation tool were improved. Such incident progress prediction technologies were

  7. Decisions among the undecided: implicit attitudes predict future voting behavior of undecided voters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristjen B Lundberg

    Full Text Available Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.

  8. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  9. Toxicogenomic multigene biomarker for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minowa, Yohsuke; Kondo, Chiaki; Uehara, Takeki; Morikawa, Yuji; Okuno, Yasushi; Nakatsu, Noriyuki; Ono, Atsushi; Maruyama, Toshiyuki; Kato, Ikuo; Yamate, Jyoji; Yamada, Hiroshi; Ohno, Yasuo; Urushidani, Tetsuro

    2012-01-01

    Drug-induced renal tubular injury is a major concern in the preclinical safety evaluation of drug candidates. Toxicogenomics is now a generally accepted tool for identifying chemicals with potential safety problems. The specific aim of the present study was to develop a model for use in predicting the future onset of drug-induced proximal tubular injury following repeated dosing with various nephrotoxicants. In total, 41 nephrotoxic and nonnephrotoxic compounds were used for the present analysis. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed orally or intravenously once daily. Animals were exposed to three different doses (low, middle, and high) of each compound, and kidney tissue was collected at 3, 6, 9, and 24 h after single dosing, and on days 4, 8, 15, and 29 after repeated dosing. Gene expression profiles were generated from kidney total RNA using Affymetrix DNA microarrays. Filter-type gene selection and linear classification algorithms were employed to discriminate future onset of proximal tubular injury. We identified genomic biomarkers for use in future onset prediction using the gene expression profiles determined on day 1, when most of the nephrotoxicants had yet to produce detectable histopathological changes. The model was evaluated using a five-fold cross validation, and achieved a sensitivity of 93% and selectivity of 90% with 19 probes. We also found that the prediction accuracy of the optimized model was substantially higher than that produced by any of the single genomic biomarkers or histopathology. The genes included in our model were primarily involved in DNA replication, cell cycle control, apoptosis, and responses to oxidative stress and chemical stimuli. In summary, our toxicogenomic model is particularly useful for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury.

  10. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  11. FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-02-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Predicting the future impact of droughts on ungulate populations in arid and semi-arid environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare Duncan

    Full Text Available Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21(st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

  13. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  14. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  15. What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Bert

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

  16. Wearable Optical Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Ballard, Zachary S.; Ozcan, Aydogan

    2017-01-01

    The market for wearable sensors is predicted to grow to $5.5 billion by 2025, impacting global health in unprecedented ways. Optics and photonics will play a key role in the future of these wearable technologies, enabling highly sensitive

  17. Identified state-space prediction model for aero-optical wavefronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihi, Azin; Tesch, Jonathan; Gibson, Steve

    2013-07-01

    A state-space disturbance model and associated prediction filter for aero-optical wavefronts are described. The model is computed by system identification from a sequence of wavefronts measured in an airborne laboratory. Estimates of the statistics and flow velocity of the wavefront data are shown and can be computed from the matrices in the state-space model without returning to the original data. Numerical results compare velocity values and power spectra computed from the identified state-space model with those computed from the aero-optical data.

  18. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald de Vlaming

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii the computational feasibility, and (iv the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis. Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N<10,000 the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP. However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  19. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AS THE TOOL OF EFFICIENCY IMPROVING OF FUTURE PHYSICS TEACHERS TRAINING TO LABORATORY SESSION IN OPTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goncharenko T.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the problem of the use of information technologies implementation as the tool of the efficiency improving of future physics teachers training to execution of laboratory session in Optics is considered in the article. The problems and contradictions concerning ICT tools use in higher education institutions, the work of which is aimed at future physics teachers training are described. Due to the specifics of future teachers training in higher education institutions, labor market requirements and public procurement, the main ICT tools are identified, that are effective in students’ self-activity work to laboratory session execution. The developed list of electronic resources is divided into blocks according to the topics of laboratory works in Optics. The methodology of using of ICT tools at future students training for laboratory session on the example of individual topics is considered.

  20. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  1. Near Earth Architectural Options for a Future Deep Space Optical Communications Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, B. L.; Liebrecht, P. E.; Fitzgerald, R. J.

    2004-01-01

    In the near future the National Aeronautics and Space Administration anticipates a significant increase in demand for long-haul communications services from deep space to Earth. Distances will range from 0.1 to 40 AU, with data rate requirements in the 1's to 1000's of Mbits/second. The near term demand is driven by NASA's Space Science Enterprise which wishes to deploy more capable instruments onboard spacecraft and increase the number of deep space missions. The long term demand is driven by missions with extreme communications challenges such as very high data rates from the outer planets, supporting sub-surface exploration, or supporting NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space Enterprise beyond Earth orbit. Laser communications is a revolutionary communications technology that will dramatically increase NASA's ability to transmit information across the solar system. Lasercom sends information using beams of light and optical elements, such as telescopes and optical amplifiers, rather than RF signals, amplifiers, and antennas. This paper provides an overview of different network options at Earth to meet NASA's deep space lasercom requirements. It is based mainly on work done for the Mars Laser Communications Demonstration Project, a joint project between NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (JPL), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). It reports preliminary conclusions from the Mars Lasercom Study conducted at MIT/LL and on additional work done for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System Continuation Study at GSFC. A lasercom flight terminal will be flown on the Mars Telesat Orbiter (MTO) to be launched by NASA in 2009, and will be the first high rate deep space demonstration of this revolutionary technology.

  2. Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

    OpenAIRE

    Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

  3. Tools for Predicting Optical Damage on Inertial Confinement Fusion-Class Laser Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nostrand, M.C.; Carr, C.W.; Liao, Z.M.; Honig, J.; Spaeth, M.L.; Manes, K.R.; Johnson, M.A.; Adams, J.J.; Cross, D.A.; Negres, R.A.; Widmayer, C.C.; Williams, W.H.; Matthews, M.J.; Jancaitis, K.S.; Kegelmeyer, L.M.

    2010-01-01

    Operating a fusion-class laser to its full potential requires a balance of operating constraints. On the one hand, the total laser energy delivered must be high enough to give an acceptable probability for ignition success. On the other hand, the laser-induced optical damage levels must be low enough to be acceptably handled with the available infrastructure and budget for optics recycle. Our research goal was to develop the models, database structures, and algorithmic tools (which we collectively refer to as ''Loop Tools'') needed to successfully maintain this balance. Predictive models are needed to plan for and manage the impact of shot campaigns from proposal, to shot, and beyond, covering a time span of years. The cost of a proposed shot campaign must be determined from these models, and governance boards must decide, based on predictions, whether to incorporate a given campaign into the facility shot plan based upon available resources. Predictive models are often built on damage ''rules'' derived from small beam damage tests on small optics. These off-line studies vary the energy, pulse-shape and wavelength in order to understand how these variables influence the initiation of damage sites and how initiated damage sites can grow upon further exposure to UV light. It is essential to test these damage ''rules'' on full-scale optics exposed to the complex conditions of an integrated ICF-class laser system. Furthermore, monitoring damage of optics on an ICF-class laser system can help refine damage rules and aid in the development of new rules. Finally, we need to develop the algorithms and data base management tools for implementing these rules in the Loop Tools. The following highlights progress in the development of the loop tools and their implementation.

  4. Tools for Predicting Optical Damage on Inertial Confinement Fusion-Class Laser Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nostrand, M C; Carr, C W; Liao, Z M; Honig, J; Spaeth, M L; Manes, K R; Johnson, M A; Adams, J J; Cross, D A; Negres, R A; Widmayer, C C; Williams, W H; Matthews, M J; Jancaitis, K S; Kegelmeyer, L M

    2010-12-20

    Operating a fusion-class laser to its full potential requires a balance of operating constraints. On the one hand, the total laser energy delivered must be high enough to give an acceptable probability for ignition success. On the other hand, the laser-induced optical damage levels must be low enough to be acceptably handled with the available infrastructure and budget for optics recycle. Our research goal was to develop the models, database structures, and algorithmic tools (which we collectively refer to as ''Loop Tools'') needed to successfully maintain this balance. Predictive models are needed to plan for and manage the impact of shot campaigns from proposal, to shot, and beyond, covering a time span of years. The cost of a proposed shot campaign must be determined from these models, and governance boards must decide, based on predictions, whether to incorporate a given campaign into the facility shot plan based upon available resources. Predictive models are often built on damage ''rules'' derived from small beam damage tests on small optics. These off-line studies vary the energy, pulse-shape and wavelength in order to understand how these variables influence the initiation of damage sites and how initiated damage sites can grow upon further exposure to UV light. It is essential to test these damage ''rules'' on full-scale optics exposed to the complex conditions of an integrated ICF-class laser system. Furthermore, monitoring damage of optics on an ICF-class laser system can help refine damage rules and aid in the development of new rules. Finally, we need to develop the algorithms and data base management tools for implementing these rules in the Loop Tools. The following highlights progress in the development of the loop tools and their implementation.

  5. Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

    2018-06-01

    The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

  6. Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement

  7. Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

  8. Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

    2011-01-01

    Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain levels predict visual outcome after optic neuritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, Signe; Degn, M; Sander, B

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis is a good model for multiple sclerosis relapse, but currently no tests can accurately predict visual outcome. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of tissue damage and remodelling (neurofilament light chain (NF......-L, β=-1.1, p=0.0150 for GC-IPL). Complete/incomplete remission was determined based on LCVA from 30 healthy controls. NF-L had a positive predictive value of 91% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 for incomplete remission. CONCLUSION: CSF NF-L is a promising biomarker of visual outcome after...

  10. Optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for 5G future broadband cellular communication networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, I.F. da; Spadoti, D. H.; Cerqueira Sodre Jr., Arismar

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for millimetre-wave frequency range. Silicon switches are used to control the optical reconfiguration, modifying the frequency response and radiation pattern of the antenna design. Therefore, the system can switch between the ligh......This paper presents an optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for millimetre-wave frequency range. Silicon switches are used to control the optical reconfiguration, modifying the frequency response and radiation pattern of the antenna design. Therefore, the system can switch between...

  11. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Barbet-Massin

    Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

  12. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  13. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  14. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Lee, Hyung Joo; Kostinski, Alex; Kotlov, Tanya; Koutrakis, Petros

    2012-09-01

    Although ground-level PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm) monitoring sites provide accurate measurements, their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. Satellite data expand spatial coverage, enhancing our ability to estimate location- and/or subject-specific exposures to PM2.5. In this study, the authors apply a mixed-effects model approach to aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to predict PM2.5 concentrations within the New England area of the United States. With this approach, it is possible to control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles, and ground surface reflectance. The model-predicted PM2.5 mass concentration are highly correlated with the actual observations, R2 = 0.92. Therefore, adjustment for the daily variability in AOD-PM2.5 relationship allows obtaining spatially resolved PM2.5 concentration data that can be of great value to future exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. The authors demonstrated how AOD can be used reliably to predict daily PM2.5 mass concentrations, providing determination of their spatial and temporal variability. Promising results are found by adjusting for daily variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, without the need to account for a wide variety of individual additional parameters. This approach is of a great potential to investigate the associations between subject-specific exposures to PM2.5 and their health effects. Higher 4 x 4-km resolution GOES AOD retrievals comparing with the conventional MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 10-km product has the potential to capture PM2.5 variability within the urban domain.

  16. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  17. Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

    2013-10-01

    The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction.

  18. Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

    2007-10-01

    To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

  19. Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

    2003-06-01

    The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

  20. Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

    2012-01-01

    For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

  1. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  2. A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

    2010-10-01

    This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  3. Recent results and future plans for a 45 actuator adaptive x-ray optics experiment at the advanced light source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brejnholt, Nicolai F., E-mail: brejnholt1@llnl.gov; Poyneer, Lisa A.; Hill, Randal M.; Pardini, Tommaso; Hagler, Lisle; Jackson, Jessie; Jeon, Jae; McCarville, Thomas J.; Palmer, David W. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); Celestre, Richard [Advanced Light Source - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California (United States); Brooks, Audrey D. [Northrop Grumman - AOA Xinetics Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-07-27

    We report on the current status of the Adaptive X-ray Optics project run by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). LLNL is collaborating with the Advanced Light Source (ALS) to demonstrate a near real-time adaptive X-ray optic. To this end, a custom-built 45 cm long deformable mirror has been installed at ALS beamline 5.3.1 (end station 2) for a two-year period that started in September 2014. We will outline general aspects of the instrument, present results from a recent experimental campaign and touch on future plans for the project.

  4. Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

    2016-10-01

    mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  5. New Mexico Fiber-Optic Link Marks Giant Leap Toward Future of Radio Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-12-01

    SOCORRO, NM -- Scientists and engineers at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) have made a giant leap toward the future of radio astronomy by successfully utilizing the Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope in conjunction with an antenna of the continent-wide Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) using the longest fiber-optic data link ever demonstrated in radio astronomy. The 65-mile fiber link will allow scientists to use the two National Science Foundation (NSF) facilities together in real time, and is the first step toward expanding the VLA to include eight proposed new radio-telescope antennas throughout New Mexico. LEFT: Miller Goss, NRAO's director of VLA/VLBA Operations, unveils graphic showing success of the Pie Town-VLA fiber link. The project, funded by the NSF and Associated Universities, Inc. (AUI), which operates NRAO for the NSF, links the VLA and the VLBA antenna in Pie Town, NM, using a Western New Mexico Telephone Co. fiber-optic cable. The successful hookup was announced at a ceremony that also marked the 10th anniversary of NRAO's Operations Center in Socorro. "Linking the Pie Town antenna to the VLA quadruples the VLA's ability to make detailed images of astronomical objects," said Paul Vanden Bout, NRAO's Director. "This alone makes the link an advance for science, but its greater importance is that it clearly demonstrates the technology for improving the VLA's capabilities even more in the future." "Clearly, the big skies and wide open spaces in New Mexico create near perfect conditions for the incredible astronomical assets located in our state. This new fiber-optic link paves the way for multiplying the already breathtaking scientific capabilities of the VLA," Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) said. The VLA is a system of 27 radio-telescope antennas distributed over the high desert west of Socorro, NM, in the shape of a giant "Y." Made famous in movies, commercials and numerous published photos, the VLA has been one of the most productive

  6. Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

    2011-08-01

    Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayden D Russell

    Full Text Available The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter Sea Surface Temperature (SST as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

  8. The role of surface topography in predicting scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehn, V.; Jones, V.O.; Elson, J.M.; Bennett, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    Monochromator design and the design of optical experiments at XUV and X-ray wavelengths are frequently limited by scattering from optical components, yet theoretical treatments are few and untested experimentally. This is partly due to the failure of scattering models used in the visible and near UV when the wavelength becomes comparable to, or smaller than, the topographic features on the surface, and partly it is due to the difficulty in measuring the topography on the required size scale. We briefly review the theoretical problems and prospects for accurately predicting both the magnitude and angular distribution of scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces. Experimental methods for determining and representing the surface topography are also reviewed, together with their limitations and ranges of applicability. Finally, the first results of our experiments, conducted recently at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory on the angular distribution of scattering by surfaces of known topography are presented and discussed, along with their potential implications for the theory of scattering, and for XUV and X-ray optical components. (orig.)

  9. Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

  10. Mariner-Venus-Mercury optical navigation demonstration - Results and implications for future missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acton, C. H., Jr.; Ohtakay, H.

    1975-01-01

    Optical navigation uses spacecraft television pictures of a target body against a known star background in a process which relates the spacecraft trajectory to the target body. This technology was used in the Mariner-Venus-Mercury mission, with the optical data processed in near-real-time, simulating a mission critical environment. Optical data error sources were identified, and a star location error analysis was carried out. Several methods for selecting limb crossing coordinates were used, and a limb smear compensation was introduced. Omission of planetary aberration corrections was the source of large optical residuals.

  11. Longitudinal Alterations of Frontoparietal and Frontotemporal Networks Predict Future Creative Cognitive Ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qunlin; Beaty, Roger E; Wei, Dongtao; Yang, Junyi; Sun, Jiangzhou; Liu, Wei; Yang, Wenjing; Zhang, Qinglin; Qiu, Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Creative cognition is important to academic performance and career success during late adolescence and adulthood. However, there is a lack of longitudinal data on whether brain structural development could predict improvements in creative thinking, and how such changes interact with other cognitive abilities to support creative performance. Here we examined longitudinal alterations of brain structure and their relation to creative cognitive ability in a sample of 159 healthy young adults who were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging 2-3 times over the course of 3 years. The most robust predictor of future creative ability was the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), which in conjunction with baseline creative capacity showed a 31% prediction rate. Longitudinal analysis revealed that slower decreases in gray matter density within left frontoparietal and right frontotemporal clusters predicted enhanced creative ability. Moreoever, the relationship between longitudinal alterations within frontal-related clusters and improved creative ability was moderated by the right DLPFC and working memory ability. We conclude that continuous goal-directed planning and accumulated knowledge are implemented in the right DLPFC and temporal areas, respectively, which in turn support longitudinal gains in creative cognitive ability. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

    2013-12-01

    Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

  13. A Path Tracking Algorithm Using Future Prediction Control with Spike Detection for an Autonomous Vehicle Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aizzat Zakaria

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking is an important aspect of autonomous vehicles. The idea behind trajectory tracking is the ability of the vehicle to follow a predefined path with zero steady state error. The difficulty arises due to the nonlinearity of vehicle dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes a stable tracking control for an autonomous vehicle. An approach that consists of steering wheel control and lateral control is introduced. This control algorithm is used for a non-holonomic navigation problem, namely tracking a reference trajectory in a closed loop form. A proposed future prediction point control algorithm is used to calculate the vehicle's lateral error in order to improve the performance of the trajectory tracking. A feedback sensor signal from the steering wheel angle and yaw rate sensor is used as feedback information for the controller. The controller consists of a relationship between the future point lateral error, the linear velocity, the heading error and the reference yaw rate. This paper also introduces a spike detection algorithm to track the spike error that occurs during GPS reading. The proposed idea is to take the advantage of the derivative of the steering rate. This paper aims to tackle the lateral error problem by applying the steering control law to the vehicle, and proposes a new path tracking control method by considering the future coordinate of the vehicle and the future estimated lateral error. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated by a simulation and a GPS experiment with noisy data. The approach used in this paper is not limited to autonomous vehicles alone since the concept of autonomous vehicle tracking can be used in mobile robot platforms, as the kinematic model of these two platforms is similar.

  14. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  15. Permeability of the blood-brain barrier predicts conversion from optic neuritis to multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cramer, Stig P; Modvig, Signe; Simonsen, Helle Juhl

    2015-01-01

    in the permeability of the blood-brain barrier in normal-appearing white matter of patients with multiple sclerosis and here, for the first time, we present a study on the capability of blood-brain barrier permeability in predicting conversion from optic neuritis to multiple sclerosis and a direct comparison...... with cerebrospinal fluid markers of inflammation, cellular trafficking and blood-brain barrier breakdown. To this end, we applied dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging at 3 T to measure blood-brain barrier permeability in 39 patients with monosymptomatic optic neuritis, all referred for imaging...... fluid as well as levels of CXCL10 and MMP9 in the cerebrospinal fluid. These findings suggest that blood-brain barrier permeability, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging, may provide novel pathological information as a marker of neuroinflammation related to multiple sclerosis, to some extent...

  16. Ground-based adaptive optics coronagraphic performance under closed-loop predictive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Males, Jared R.; Guyon, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    The discovery of the exoplanet Proxima b highlights the potential for the coming generation of giant segmented mirror telescopes (GSMTs) to characterize terrestrial-potentially habitable-planets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. This will require continued development and implementation of optimized adaptive optics systems feeding coronagraphs on the GSMTs. Such development should proceed with an understanding of the fundamental limits imposed by atmospheric turbulence. Here, we seek to address this question with a semianalytic framework for calculating the postcoronagraph contrast in a closed-loop adaptive optics system. We do this starting with the temporal power spectra of the Fourier basis calculated assuming frozen flow turbulence, and then apply closed-loop transfer functions. We include the benefits of a simple predictive controller, which we show could provide over a factor of 1400 gain in raw point spread function contrast at 1 λ/D on bright stars, and more than a factor of 30 gain on an I=7.5 mag star such as Proxima. More sophisticated predictive control can be expected to improve this even further. Assuming a photon-noise limited observing technique such as high-dispersion coronagraphy, these gains in raw contrast will decrease integration times by the same large factors. Predictive control of atmospheric turbulence should therefore be seen as one of the key technologies that will enable ground-based telescopes to characterize terrestrial planets.

  17. Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

  18. Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, Digby D. [Center for Electrochemical Science and Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Steidle Building, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Engelhardt, George [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

  19. Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, Digby D.; Engelhardt, George

    2004-01-01

    The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

  20. Predicting Future High-Cost Schizophrenia Patients Using High-Dimensional Administrative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajuan Wang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe burden of serious and persistent mental illness such as schizophrenia is substantial and requires health-care organizations to have adequate risk adjustment models to effectively allocate their resources to managing patients who are at the greatest risk. Currently available models underestimate health-care costs for those with mental or behavioral health conditions.ObjectivesThe study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive models for identification of future high-cost schizophrenia patients using advanced supervised machine learning methods.MethodsThis was a retrospective study using a payer administrative database. The study cohort consisted of 97,862 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD9 code 295.* from January 2009 to June 2014. Training (n = 34,510 and study evaluation (n = 30,077 cohorts were derived based on 12-month observation and prediction windows (PWs. The target was average total cost/patient/month in the PW. Three models (baseline, intermediate, final were developed to assess the value of different variable categories for cost prediction (demographics, coverage, cost, health-care utilization, antipsychotic medication usage, and clinical conditions. Scalable orthogonal regression, significant attribute selection in high dimensions method, and random forests regression were used to develop the models. The trained models were assessed in the evaluation cohort using the regression R2, patient classification accuracy (PCA, and cost accuracy (CA. The model performance was compared to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC model.ResultsAt top 10% cost cutoff, the final model achieved 0.23 R2, 43% PCA, and 63% CA; in contrast, the CMS-HCC model achieved 0.09 R2, 27% PCA with 45% CA. The final model and the CMS-HCC model identified 33 and 22%, respectively, of total cost at the top 10% cost cutoff.ConclusionUsing advanced feature selection leveraging detailed

  1. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles A. Gullo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large.

  2. Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  3. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  4. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  5. Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

    2017-04-15

    Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

    2017-12-01

    Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

  7. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    Full Text Available Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

  8. Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John G

    2015-04-16

    Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

  9. Orbitofrontal cortex activity and connectivity predict future depression symptoms in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jingwen; Narayanan, Ananth; Perlman, Greg; Luking, Katherine; DeLorenzo, Christine; Hajcak, Greg; Klein, Daniel N; Kotov, Roman; Mohanty, Aprajita

    2017-10-01

    Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of disability worldwide; however, little is known about pathological mechanisms involved in its development. Research in adolescent depression has focused on reward sensitivity and striatal mechanisms implementing it. The contribution of loss sensitivity to future depression, as well as the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) mechanisms critical for processing losses and rewards, remain unexplored. Furthermore, it is unclear whether OFC functioning interacts with familial history in predicting future depression. In this longitudinal study we recorded functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while 229 adolescent females with or without parental history of depression completed a monetary gambling task. We examined if OFC blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) response and functional connectivity during loss and win feedback was associated with depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively (9 months later), and whether this relationship was moderated by parental history of depression. Reduced OFC response during loss was associated with higher depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively, even after controlling for concurrent depression, specifically in adolescents with parental history of depression. Similarly, increased OFC-posterior insula connectivity during loss was associated with future depression symptoms but this relationship was not moderated by parental history of depression. This study provides the first evidence for loss-related alterations in OFC functioning and its interaction with familial history of depression as possible mechanisms in the development of depression. While the current fMRI literature has mainly focused on reward, the present findings underscore the need to include prefrontal loss processing in existing developmental models of depression.

  10. Predicting the Future Contribution of Himalayan Debris-covered Glaciers to River Discharge: Advances and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quincey, D. J.; Hubbard, B. P.; Klaar, M. J.; Miles, E.; Miles, K.; Rowan, A. V.; King, O.; Watson, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    The glaciers and snowfields of the Himalaya are the ultimate source for the many rivers that flow across the Asian subcontinent, but they are diminishing rapidly in the face of sustained climatic change. Predictions of how future river discharge may vary through space and time are hampered by two major knowledge gaps. First, simulations of glacier mass loss in high Asia are severely limited by data availability and assumptions made in the parameterisation of glacier models. Consequently, projections of glacier change vary widely; in Nepal for example, recent estimates of volumetric ice loss by AD2100 have ranged between 8% and 99%. A second major gap in knowledge lies in the coupling between glaciers and downstream areas, and specifically in quantifying the relative contributions of different sources to river flow. Although it is clear that ice and snow melt dominates flow for considerable distances downstream, how this contribution interacts with groundwater supplies with increasing distance from its source remains poorly understood. This presentation will review recent work that closes some of the knowledge gaps in understanding debris-covered glacier behaviour including new results from drilling work on the Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Additionally, it will report on the outputs from an interdisciplinary study in the Annapurna region of Nepal, which is focussing specifically on disaggregating the relative contributions to flow using isotope-based hydrograph separations. It will finish by exploring the most likely drivers of future changes to water supply, including an evaluation of the impact of glacial lake development, and by identifying the main challenges for future related research.

  11. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  12. Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

  13. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  14. You'll change more than I will: Adults' predictions about their own and others' future preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renoult, Louis; Kopp, Leia; Davidson, Patrick S R; Taler, Vanessa; Atance, Cristina M

    2016-01-01

    It has been argued that adults underestimate the extent to which their preferences will change over time. We sought to determine whether such mispredictions are the result of a difficulty imagining that one's own current and future preferences may differ or whether it also characterizes our predictions about the future preferences of others. We used a perspective-taking task in which we asked young people how much they liked stereotypically young-person items (e.g., Top 40 music, adventure vacations) and stereotypically old-person items (e.g., jazz, playing bridge) now, and how much they would like them in the distant future (i.e., when they are 70 years old). Participants also made these same predictions for a generic same-age, same-sex peer. In a third condition, participants predicted how much a generic older (i.e., age 70) same-sex adult would like items from both categories today. Participants predicted less change between their own current and future preferences than between the current and future preferences of a peer. However, participants estimated that, compared to a current older adult today, their peer would like stereotypically young items more in the future and stereotypically old items less. The fact that peers' distant-future estimated preferences were different from the ones they made for "current" older adults suggests that even though underestimation of change of preferences over time is attenuated when thinking about others, a bias still exists.

  15. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  16. A novel multilayer model for missing link prediction and future link forecasting in dynamic complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad

    2018-02-01

    The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of

  17. Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

    2016-06-01

    Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

  18. Optics

    CERN Document Server

    Mathieu, Jean Paul

    1975-01-01

    Optics, Parts 1 and 2 covers electromagnetic optics and quantum optics. The first part of the book examines the various of the important properties common to all electromagnetic radiation. This part also studies electromagnetic waves; electromagnetic optics of transparent isotropic and anisotropic media; diffraction; and two-wave and multi-wave interference. The polarization states of light, the velocity of light, and the special theory of relativity are also examined in this part. The second part is devoted to quantum optics, specifically discussing the classical molecular theory of optical p

  19. Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz JA

    2017-04-01

    false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004–0.25, P=0.001 was significantly related with future falls. Conclusion: The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values. Keywords: aged, balance, cross-cultural adaptation

  20. Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

    1994-12-01

    A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

  1. International standards for optical wireless communications: state-of-the-art and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciniak, Marian

    2017-10-01

    As the number of active OWC installations is growing fast, the standards for compatibility of co-existing neighbouring systems are being developed. The paper addresses the Laser Safety (IEC standards), ITU-T Study Group 15 standards (G.640 Co-location longitudinally compatible interfaces for free space optical systems), ITU-Radiocommunication Sector standards (P.1817-1 Propagation data required for the design of terrestrial free-space optical links), and the IEEE Work in Progress - standardization activity on Visible Light Communications. International standards of FSO communications have been reviewed and discussed. ITU, IEC, and IEEE International standards for Free-Space Optical links have been reviewed. The system reliability and availability as well as security issues will be addressed as well in the talk.

  2. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-07-29

    Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  3. Future optical communication networks beyond 160 Gbit/s based on OTDM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, Giancarlo; Bogoni, Antonella; Poti, Luca

    2005-01-01

    The virtually unlimited bandwidth of optical fibers has caused a great increase in data transmission speed over the past decade and, hence, stimulated high-demand multimedia services such as distance learning, video-conferencing and peer to peer applications. For this reason data traffic is exceeding telephony traffic, and this trend is driving the convergence of telecommunications and computer communications. In this scenario Internet Protocol (IP) is becoming the dominant protocol for any traffic, shifting the attention of the network designers from a circuit switching approach to a packet switching approach. A role of paramount importance in packet switching networks is played by the router that must implement the functionalities to set up and maintain the inter-nodal communications. The main functionalities a router must implement are routing, forwarding, switching, synchronization, contention resolution, and buffering. Nowadays, opto-electronic conversion is still required at each network node to process the incoming signal before routing that to the right output port. However, when the single channel bit rate increases beyond electronic speed limit, Optical Time Division Multiplexing (OTDM) becomes a forced choice, and all-optical processing must be performed to extract the information from the incoming packet. In this paper enabling techniques for ultra-fast all-optical network will be addressed. First a 160 Gbit/s complete transmission system will be considered. As enabling technique, an overview for all-optical logics will be discussed and experimental results will be presented using a particular reconfigurable NOLM based on Self-Phase-Modulation (SPM) or Cross-Phase-Modulation (XPM). Finally, a rough experiment on label extraction, all-optical switching and packet forwarding is shown.

  4. Harnessing Light: Capitalizing on Optical Science Trends and Challenges for Future Research. Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svedberg, Erik

    2014-02-06

    The committee has during the earlier period finalized their work on the report, Optics and Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation (2013) . The report did undergo review and initial editorial processing. The NRC released a pre-publication report on August 13, 2012. A final report is now available. The study director has been able to practice his skills in running a national academies committee. From a research perspective the grant has generated a report with recommendations to the government. The work itself is the meetings where the committee convened to hear presenters and to discuss the status of optics and photonics as well as writing the report.

  5. Comparison and classification of all-optical CDMA systems for future telecommunication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iversen, Kay; Hampicke, Dirk

    1995-12-01

    This paper shows the state of the art in fiber optical code-division multiple-access (CDMA). Recent work in this area for both, systems and sequences is reviewed and analyzed. For that purpose a classification of systems, corresponding to the manner of signal processing and a classification of known (0,1)-sequences are presented. It is shown that due to the limits by currently available device technology especially two techniques are promising for implementation in broadband telecommunication networks: spectral encoding with integrated optical filters and CDMA in combination with wavelength multiple access schemes. Further an overview about some important experiments in this field is given.

  6. The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahony, Martin

    2014-02-01

    Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

  7. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  8. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

    2005-01-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  9. Predictability and stability of refraction with increasing optical zone diameter in hyperopic LASIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa A El-Helw

    2010-05-01

    correction of hyperopia of more than 4.00 diopters was more predictable, stable and safe.Keywords: hyperopia, LASIK, optical zone, refraction

  10. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  11. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  12. Current and Future Applications of Biomedical Engineering for Proteomic Profiling: Predictive Biomarkers in Neuro-Traumatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Ganau

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review aims to summarize the impact of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering in defining clinically meaningful predictive biomarkers in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI, a critical worldwide health problem with an estimated 10 billion people affected annually worldwide. Data were collected through a review of the existing English literature performed on Scopus, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, and/or Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Only experimental articles revolving around the management of TBI, in which the role of new devices based on innovative discoveries coming from the field of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering were highlighted, have been included and analyzed in this study. Based on theresults gathered from this research on innovative methods for genomics, epigenomics, and proteomics, their future application in this field seems promising. Despite the outstanding technical challenges of identifying reliable biosignatures for TBI and the mixed nature of studies herein described (single cells proteomics, biofilms, sensors, etc., the clinical implementation of those discoveries will allow us to gain confidence in the use of advanced neuromonitoring modalities with a potential dramatic improvement in the management of those patients.

  13. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  14. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  15. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  17. Strongly lensed neutral hydrogen emission: detection predictions with current and future radio interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, R. P.; Obreschkow, D.; Heywood, I.

    2015-09-01

    Strong gravitational lensing provides some of the deepest views of the Universe, enabling studies of high-redshift galaxies only possible with next-generation facilities without the lensing phenomenon. To date, 21-cm radio emission from neutral hydrogen has only been detected directly out to z ˜ 0.2, limited by the sensitivity and instantaneous bandwidth of current radio telescopes. We discuss how current and future radio interferometers such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will detect lensed H I emission in individual galaxies at high redshift. Our calculations rely on a semi-analytic galaxy simulation with realistic H I discs (by size, density profile and rotation), in a cosmological context, combined with general relativistic ray tracing. Wide-field, blind H I surveys with the SKA are predicted to be efficient at discovering lensed H I systems, increasingly so at z ≳ 2. This will be enabled by the combination of the magnification boosts, the steepness of the H I luminosity function at the high-mass end, and the fact that the H I spectral line is relatively isolated in frequency. These surveys will simultaneously provide a new technique for foreground lens selection and yield the highest redshift H I emission detections. More near term (and existing) cm-wave facilities will push the high-redshift H I envelope through targeted surveys of known lenses.

  18. Assessing the future of diffuse optical imaging technologies for breast cancer management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tromberg, Bruce J.; Pogue, Brian W.; Paulsen, Keith D.; Yodh, Arjun G.; Boas, David A.; Cerussi, Albert E.

    2008-01-01

    Diffuse optical imaging (DOI) is a noninvasive optical technique that employs near-infrared (NIR) light to quantitatively characterize the optical properties of thick tissues. Although NIR methods were first applied to breast transillumination (also called diaphanography) nearly 80 years ago, quantitative DOI methods employing time- or frequency-domain photon migration technologies have only recently been used for breast imaging (i.e., since the mid-1990s). In this review, the state of the art in DOI for breast cancer is outlined and a multi-institutional Network for Translational Research in Optical Imaging (NTROI) is described, which has been formed by the National Cancer Institute to advance diffuse optical spectroscopy and imaging (DOSI) for the purpose of improving breast cancer detection and clinical management. DOSI employs broadband technology both in near-infrared spectral and temporal signal domains in order to separate absorption from scattering and quantify uptake of multiple molecular probes based on absorption or fluorescence contrast. Additional dimensionality in the data is provided by integrating and co-registering the functional information of DOSI with x-ray mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which provide structural information or vascular flow information, respectively. Factors affecting DOSI performance, such as intrinsic and extrinsic contrast mechanisms, quantitation of biochemical components, image formation/visualization, and multimodality co-registration are under investigation in the ongoing research NTROI sites. One of the goals is to develop standardized DOSI platforms that can be used as stand-alone devices or in conjunction with MRI, mammography, or ultrasound. This broad-based, multidisciplinary effort is expected to provide new insight regarding the origins of breast disease and practical approaches for addressing several key challenges in breast cancer, including: Detecting disease in mammographically dense tissue

  19. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  20. Processes with weak gauge boson pairs at hadron colliders. Precise predictions and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salfelder, Lukas

    2017-02-08

    In the last years, scattering processes comprising pairs of the massive weak gauge bosons gain more and more attention. Those reactions provide particularly promising means to investigate the very mechanism responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking in the Standard Model of particle physics and to search for new physics entering via the weak sector of the theory. Precisely predicting the differential distributions of the final-state particles in realistic conditions is an essential prerequisite to potentially reveal tiny deviations induced by physics beyond the Standard Model. In this thesis we present a calculation of the next-to-leading order (NLO) electroweak corrections to W-boson pair production at CERNs Large Hadron Collider (LHC), as well as a detailed analysis of vector-boson scattering (VBS) processes at a future high-energy proton.proton collider. In particular, our calculation of the NLO electroweak corrections to the hadronic process pp→W{sup +}W{sup -}→4 leptons takes the leptonic W-boson decays as well as all off-shell effects fully into account and, thus, is the first prediction providing NLO accuracy everywhere in phase space. Employing realistic event selection criteria, we study the influence of the corrections in situations that are typical for the experimental analyses in the high-energy region and for Higgs-boson precision studies in the channel H→WW{sup *}, to which direct W-boson pair production represents an important irreducible background. We observe non-trivial distortions of the differential distributions that, if not properly included in upcoming analyses, could easily be misidentified as first signs of new physics. Furthermore, we compare our predictions to previous results obtained by employing the so-called double-pole approximation. At small and intermediate scales the two approaches show the expected agreement at the level of fractions of a percent, while in the TeV range the differences may easily reach several tens of

  1. Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  2. Usefulness of optic nerve ultrasound to predict clinical progression in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Sánchez, S; Eichau Madueño, S; Rus Hidalgo, M; Domínguez Mayoral, A M; Vilches-Arenas, A; Navarro Mascarell, G; Izquierdo, G

    2018-03-21

    Progressive neuronal and axonal loss are considered the main causes of disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The disease frequently involves the visual system; the accessibility of the system for several functional and structural tests has made it a model for the in vivo study of MS pathogenesis. Orbital ultrasound is a non-invasive technique that enables various structures of the orbit, including the optic nerve, to be evaluated in real time. We conducted an observational, ambispective study of MS patients. Disease progression data were collected. Orbital ultrasound was performed on all patients, with power set according to the 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA) principle. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) data were also collected for those patients who underwent the procedure. Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS version 22.0. Disease progression was significantly correlated with ultrasound findings (P=.041 for the right eye and P=.037 for the left eye) and with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at the end of the follow-up period (P=.07 for the right eye and P=.043 for the left eye). No statistically significant differences were found with relation to relapses or other clinical variables. Ultrasound measurement of optic nerve diameter constitutes a useful, predictive factor for the evaluation of patients with MS. Smaller diameters are associated with poor clinical progression and greater disability (measured by EDSS). Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Optics

    CERN Document Server

    Fincham, W H A

    2013-01-01

    Optics: Ninth Edition Optics: Ninth Edition covers the work necessary for the specialization in such subjects as ophthalmic optics, optical instruments and lens design. The text includes topics such as the propagation and behavior of light; reflection and refraction - their laws and how different media affect them; lenses - thick and thin, cylindrical and subcylindrical; photometry; dispersion and color; interference; and polarization. Also included are topics such as diffraction and holography; the limitation of beams in optical systems and its effects; and lens systems. The book is recommen

  4. Activity status and future plans for the Optical Laboratory of the National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buisset, Christophe; Poshyachinda, Saran; Soonthornthum, Boonrucksar; Prasit, Apirat; Alagao, Mary Angelie; Choochalerm, Piyamas; Wanajaroen, Weerapot; Lepine, Thierry; Rabbia, Yves; Aukkaravittayapun, Suparerk; Leckngam, Apichat; Thummasorn, Griangsak; Ngernsujja, Surin; Inpan, Anuphong; Kaewsamoet, Pimon; Lhospice, Esther; Meemon, Panomsak; Artsang, Pornapa; Suwansukho, Kajpanya; Sirichote, Wichit; Paenoi, Jitsupa

    2018-03-01

    The National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (NARIT) has developed since June 2014 an optical laboratory that comprises all the activities and facilities related to the research and development of new instruments in the following areas: telescope design, high dynamic and high resolution imaging systems and spectrographs. The facilities include ZEMAX and Solidwork software for design and simulation activities as well as an optical room with all the equipment required to develop optical setup with cutting-edge performance. The current projects include: i) the development of a focal reducer for the 2.3 m Thai National Telescope (TNT), ii) the development of the Evanescent Wave Coronagraph dedicated to the high contrast observations of star close environment and iii) the development of low resolution spectrographs for the Thai National Telescope and for the 0.7 m telescopes of NARIT regional observatories. In each project, our activities start from the instrument optical and mechanical design to the simulation of the performance, the development of the prototype and finally to the final system integration, alignment and tests. Most of the mechanical parts are manufactured by using the facilities of NARIT precision mechanical workshop that includes a 3-axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) to machine the mechanical structures and a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) to verify the dimensions. In this paper, we give an overview of the optical laboratory activities and of the associated facilities. We also describe the objective of the current projects, present the specifications and the design of the instruments and establish the status of development and we present our future plans.

  5. Optical interconnection network for parallel access to multi-rank memory in future computing systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang; Gu, Huaxi; Yang, Yintang; Wang, Kun

    2015-08-10

    With the number of cores increasing, there is an emerging need for a high-bandwidth low-latency interconnection network, serving core-to-memory communication. In this paper, aiming at the goal of simultaneous access to multi-rank memory, we propose an optical interconnection network for core-to-memory communication. In the proposed network, the wavelength usage is delicately arranged so that cores can communicate with different ranks at the same time and broadcast for flow control can be achieved. A distributed memory controller architecture that works in a pipeline mode is also designed for efficient optical communication and transaction address processes. The scaling method and wavelength assignment for the proposed network are investigated. Compared with traditional electronic bus-based core-to-memory communication, the simulation results based on the PARSEC benchmark show that the bandwidth enhancement and latency reduction are apparent.

  6. Radiation tolerance qualification for maintenance tasks in the future fusion reactors: from fibre-optic components to robust data links

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uffelen, M. van; Fernandez, A. Fernandez; Brichard, B.; Berghmans, F.; Decreton, M.

    2003-01-01

    The future International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) requires remote handling tools for its maintenance that will operate in a harsh environment. The numerous instrumentation cables for this maintenance equipment call for (de)multiplexing solutions, in order to reduce the umbilical size. Fibre-optic data links, using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, are seriously considered as a radiation tolerant solution, offering wavelength encoded multiplexing possibilities. However, an adapted modus operandi for a reliable assessment of this evolving technology is needed, to enable their long-term implementation in a radiation environment. In this paper, we present a methodology towards qualification methods for these instrumentation data links, and illustrate it with results obtained for different individual components. These results should enable the future design of robust architectures for communication links

  7. Does nailfold capillaroscopy help predict future outcomes in systemic sclerosis? A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Dolcie; Pauling, John D

    2018-02-14

    Nailfold capillaroscopy (NC) is an important diagnostic tool in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Confirmation of NC as a prognostic factor could facilitate earlier intervention and slow disease progression in SSc. We undertook a systematic literature review to evaluate the prognostic value of NC in predicting SSc disease progression. Standardised searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE were undertaken to identify longitudinal studies of adult subjects with SSc reporting the prognostic value of NC for any aspect of disease progression and/or survival. Non-English, non-original research, animal studies, non-adult studies and non-full length reports were excluded from the analysis (PROSPERO 2017:CRD42017071719). Wide heterogeneity in study design, prognostic factor measurement and study outcomes necessitated a qualitative data synthesis. The "QUality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) risk-of-bias tool was used to assess study quality. Study selection, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment were each undertaken independently by 2 reviewers and consensus reached where necessary. Of 942 retrieved articles, 18 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies (17/18, 94%) reported positive associations between baseline NC appearances (using a variety of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative NC endpoints) and clinical outcomes including digital ulcer (DU) occurrence/healing, survival, disease progression (using domains of Medsger disease severity scale), calcinosis, skin progression, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and/or a composite analysis of "cardiovascular events". Application of the QUIPS tool identified a moderate-high risk of potential bias in 6/18 studies for study participation, 3/18 studies for study attrition, 10/18 for prognostic factor measurement, 5/18 for outcome measurement, 13/18 for confounders and 13/18 for statistical analyses. Study quality limited the strength of the conclusions drawn from these studies. The most important source of

  8. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  9. Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

    2017-12-01

    To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

  10. Application of current and future satellite missions to hydrologic prediction in transboundary rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancamaria, S.; Clark, E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2010-12-01

    More than 256 major global river basins, which cover about 45% of the continental land surface, are shared among two or more countries. The flow of such a large part of the global runoff across international boundaries has led to tension in many cases between upstream and downstream riparian countries. Among many examples, this is the case of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra Rivers, which cross the boundary between India and Bangladesh. Hydrological data (river discharge, reservoir storage) are viewed as sensitive by India (the upstream country) and are therefore not shared with Bangladesh, which can only monitor river discharge and water depth at the international border crossing. These measurements only allow forecasting of floods in the interior and southern portions of the country two to three days in advance. These forecasts are not long enough either for agricultural water management purposes (for which knowledge of upstream reservoir storage is essential) or for disaster preparedness purposes. Satellite observations of river spatial extent, surface slope, reservoir area and surface elevation have the potential to make tremendous changes in management of water within the basins. In this study, we examine the use of currently available satellite measurements (in India) and in-situ measurements in Bangladesh to increase forecast lead time in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. Using nadir altimeters, we find that it is possible to forecast the discharge of the Ganges River at the Bangladesh border with lead time 3 days and mean absolute error of around 25%. On the Ganges River, 2-day forecasts are possible with a mean absolute error of around 20%. When combined with optical/infra-red MODIS images, it is possible to map water elevations along the river and its floodplain upstream of the boundary, and to compute water storage. However, the high frequency of clouds in this region results in relatively large errors in the water mask. Due to the nadir altimeter

  11. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  12. Predicting ambient aerosol Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: organic carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

    2014-11-01

    Organic carbon (OC) can constitute 50% or more of the mass of atmospheric particulate matter. Typically, the organic carbon concentration is measured using thermal methods such as Thermal-Optical Reflectance (TOR) from quartz fiber filters. Here, methods are presented whereby Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters are used to accurately predict TOR OC. Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive, and non-destructive to the PTFE filters. To develop and test the method, FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites sampled during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to artifact-corrected TOR OC. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets by sampling site and date which leads to precise and accurate OC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of determination (R2; 0.96), low bias (0.02 μg m-3, all μg m-3 values based on the nominal IMPROVE sample volume of 32.8 m-3), low error (0.08 μg m-3) and low normalized error (11%). These performance metrics can be achieved with various degrees of spectral pretreatment (e.g., including or excluding substrate contributions to the absorbances) and are comparable in precision and accuracy to collocated TOR measurements. FT-IR spectra are also divided into calibration and test sets by OC mass and by OM / OC which reflects the organic composition of the particulate matter and is obtained from organic functional group composition; this division also leads to precise and accurate OC predictions. Low OC concentrations have higher bias and normalized error due to TOR analytical errors and artifact correction errors, not due to the range of OC mass of the samples in the calibration set. However, samples with low OC mass can be used to predict samples with high OC mass indicating that the

  13. Working disability in Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma: vertigo predicts future dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Cathrine Nansdal; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Myrseth, Erling; Finnkirk, Monica Katrine; Lund-Johansen, Morten

    2013-12-01

    We examined whether reduced hearing, tinnitus, dizziness, and unsteadiness affected the patients' ability to maintain work within a time frame of 2-10 years after diagnosis. A total of 434 consecutive patients were followed at regular intervals. Data on symptoms were scored prospectively and dichotomized by visual analog scales for tinnitus and vertigo. Study design is retrospective. Hearing acuity was scored according to the Gardner-Robertson scale, and unsteadiness was measured on a balance platform. Patients were asked about working status, and scored as receiving governmental compensation for disability. Two hundred six patients were eligible for study. Of these, one died and nine were lost to follow-up. Ninety-seven patients received conservative management, 49 patients recieved gamma knife radiosurgery, and 50 patients were treated by microsurgery. Mean follow-up time was 58.7 months (range, 20-132 months). There was a significant increase in the number of individuals receiving compensation during the study period (P < 0.0001). At baseline, the proportion of pension receivers was within same range as that of the age- and sex-matched Norwegian population (5.61% vs. 6.91%; case-control odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.45-1.49; P = 0.51, not significant). At the final time point, the increase in the number of receivers deviated significantly from the reference population (case-control odds ratio, 3.80; 95% confidence interval 2.71-5.33; P ≤ 0.001). Examining symptoms at first presentation as predictors of future dependence revealed that vertigo and higher mean age were associated with a higher risk (P < 0.001 and P = 0.015, respectively). No other symptoms were predictive of dependence. In a prospectively followed cohort of Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma, vestibular complaints were significant predictors for becoming dependant of disability pension. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2002-01-01

    During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

  15. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukwa, M.; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 6, dec (2016), č. článku 38779. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : glacial refugia * prediction of future * Ochrolechia austroamericana Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  16. Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past

  17. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the fut...

  18. Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

    2013-01-16

    Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time.

  19. Optics

    CERN Document Server

    Fincham, W H A

    2013-01-01

    Optics: Eighth Edition covers the work necessary for the specialization in such subjects as ophthalmic optics, optical instruments and lens design. The text includes topics such as the propagation and behavior of light; reflection and refraction - their laws and how different media affect them; lenses - thick and thin, cylindrical and subcylindrical; photometry; dispersion and color; interference; and polarization. Also included are topics such as diffraction and holography; the limitation of beams in optical systems and its effects; and lens systems. The book is recommended for engineering st

  20. Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

  1. Novel secure and bandwidth efficient optical code division multiplexed system for future access networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Simranjit

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, a spectrally coded optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) system using a hybrid modulation scheme has been investigated. The idea is to propose an effective approach for simultaneous improvement of the system capacity and security. Data formats, NRZ (non-return to zero), DQPSK (differential quadrature phase shift keying), and PoISk (polarisation shift keying) are used to get the orthogonal modulated signal. It is observed that the proposed hybrid modulation provides efficient utilisation of bandwidth, increases the data capacity and enhances the data confidentiality over existing OCDMA systems. Further, the proposed system performance is compared with the current state-of-the-art OCDMA schemes.

  2. An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

    2017-01-01

    Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

  3. Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Koutrakis, Petros; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Nordio, Francesco; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Jujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

  4. Use of optical sensor for in-season nitrogen management and grain yield prediction in maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bandhu Raj Baral

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Precision agriculture technologies have developed optical sensors which can determine plant’s normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI.To evaluate the relationship between maize grain yield and early season NDVI readings, an experiment was conducted at farm land of National Maize Research Program, Rampur, Chitwan during winter season of 2012. Eight different levels of N 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 and 210 kg N/ha were applied for hybrid maize RML 32 × RML 17 to study grain yield response and NDVI measurement. Periodic NDVI was measured at 10 days interval from 55 days after sowing (DAS to 115 DAS by using Green seeker hand held crop sensor. Periodic NDVI measurement taken at a range of growing degree days (GDD was critical for predicting grain yield potential. Poor exponential relationship existed between NDVI from early reading measured before 208 GDD (55 DAS and grain yield. At the 261GDD (65DAS a strong relationship (R2 = 0.70 was achieved between NDVI and grain yield. Later sensor measurements after 571 GDD (95DAS failed to distinguish variation in green biomass as a result of canopy closure. N level had significantly influenced on NDVI reading, measured grain yield, calculated in season estimated yield (INSEY, predicted yield with added N (YPN, response index (RI and grain N demand. Measuring NDVI reading by GDD (261–571 GDD allow a practical window of opportunity for side dress N applications. This study showed that yield potential in maize could be accurately predicted in season with NDVI measured with the Green Seeker crop sensor.

  5. Deep lithography with protons Modelling and predicting the performances of a novel fabrication technology for micro-optical components

    CERN Document Server

    Volckaerts, B; Veretennicoff, I; Thienpont, H

    2002-01-01

    We developed a simulation package that predicts 3D-dose distributions in proton irradiated poly(methylmetacrylate) samples considering primary energy transfer and scattering phenomena. In this paper, we apply this code to predict the surface flatness and maximum thickness of micro-optical and mechanical structures fabricated with deep lithography with protons (DLP). We compare these simulation results with experimental data and highlight the fundamental differences between DLP and deep X-ray lithography.

  6. Prediction of Human Drug Targets and Their Interactions Using Machine Learning Methods: Current and Future Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Abhigyan; Kumari, Priyanka; Chaube, Radha

    2018-01-01

    Identification of drug targets and drug target interactions are important steps in the drug-discovery pipeline. Successful computational prediction methods can reduce the cost and time demanded by the experimental methods. Knowledge of putative drug targets and their interactions can be very useful for drug repurposing. Supervised machine learning methods have been very useful in drug target prediction and in prediction of drug target interactions. Here, we describe the details for developing prediction models using supervised learning techniques for human drug target prediction and their interactions.

  7. Optics Designs of Final-Focus Systems for Future LHC Upgrades

    CERN Document Server

    Abelleira, J L; Zimmermann, Frank; Rivkin, Leonid

    2014-01-01

    The main topic of the thesis is the study of a novel option for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) comprising a large Piwinski angle, flat beams, and crab waists. Flat beams and crab waists are not only pre-requisites for a crab-waist scheme, but, even by themselves; each of these two elements alone could boost the luminosity of the existing collider as built. The new optics involves an upgrade of the interaction region of the two high-luminosity experiments, ATLAS and CMS, in order to provide them with a substantially higher luminosity. To this end, a flat-beam optics scenario has been explored for the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC), with a much reduced vertical beta function at the interaction point (IP), $\\beta_y^*$. In addition, a large Piwinski angle is considered. Advantages of a large Piwinski angle include a reduction in the hourglass effect over the length of the collision area, which allows for the significant $\\beta_y^*$ decrease. In addition there is a reduction of the be...

  8. Predicting the optical observables for nucleon scattering on even-even actinides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyanov, D. S.; Soukhovitskiĩ, E. Sh.; Capote, R.; Quesada, J. M.; Chiba, S.

    2017-09-01

    The previously derived Lane consistent dispersive coupled-channel optical model for nucleon scattering on 232Th and 238U nuclei is extended to describe scattering on even-even actinides with Z = 90-98. A soft-rotator-model (SRM) description of the low-lying nuclear structure is used, where the SRM Hamiltonian parameters are adjusted to the observed collective levels of the target nucleus. SRM nuclear wave functions (mixed in K quantum number) have been used to calculate the coupling matrix elements of the generalized optical model. The “effective” deformations that define inter-band couplings are derived from the SRM Hamiltonian parameters. Conservation of nuclear volume is enforced by introducing a dynamic monopolar term to the deformed potential, leading to additional couplings between rotational bands. The fitted static deformation parameters are in very good agreement with those derived by Wang and collaborators using the Weizsäcker-Skyrme global mass model (WS4), allowing use of the latter to predict cross sections for nuclei without experimental data. A good description of the scarce “optical” experimental database is achieved. SRM couplings and volume conservation allow a precise calculation of the compound-nucleus formation cross sections, which is significantly different from that calculated with rigid-rotor potentials coupling the ground-state rotational band. The derived parameters can be used to describe both neutron- and proton-induced reactions. Supported by International Atomic Energy Agency, through the IAEA Research Contract 19263, by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity under Contracts FPA2014-53290-C2-2-P and FPA2016-77689-C2-1-R.

  9. Development of Multiple Sclerosis in Patients with Optic Neuritis: Analysis of Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hacer Durmuş

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Optic neuritis (ON is inflammation of the optic nerve that generally leads to transient loss of vision. Unilateral optic neuritis is quite common upon first presentation in multiple sclerosis (MS patients, but it may also remain as a clinically isolated syndrome. In this study we aimed to determine what factors are associated with the development of MS in isolated ON patients. METHODS: Medical charts of patients followed-up at Istanbul University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Neurology between 1987 and 2003 were screened for patients with isolated ON at first presentation. A cohort of 90 patients was thusly obtained. Clinical and demographic features, visual evoked potential, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF, and magnetic resonance imaging findings, and time to definitive MS according to McDonald’s criteria were recorded. RESULTS: In all, 50% of the patients developed definitive MS after 13 months (95% CI: 4.4-19.6. Two of the patients developed neuromyelitis optica during the course of their follow-up. The development of MS was significantly associated with the presence of a T2 lesion (p= 0.001, oligoclonal bands (OCBs in the CSF (p= 0.002, absence of papilledema (p= 0.027, absence of severe visual impairment (p= 0.016, and subacute (> 1 day visual impairment (p= 0.005, as per log rank testing. According to the Cox proportional hazard regression model, the presence of a T2 lesion (hazard ratio: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.5-15.4 and OCBs (hazard ratio: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.1-11.5 are strongly predictive of the progression to MS. CONCLUSION: As some previous studies have noted, the risk of developing MS after ON is significantly higher in the presence of a T2 lesion and OCBs in the CSF. We think that this should be taken into account before starting early treatment for MS. Recent studies on the pathogenesis of MS have suggested that early treatment of MS reduces neurological disability in the long term. Our results might aid patient selection for early

  10. Ten years optically pumped semiconductor lasers: review, state-of-the-art, and future developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannengiesser, Christian; Ostroumov, Vasiliy; Pfeufer, Volker; Seelert, Wolf; Simon, Christoph; von Elm, Rüdiger; Zuck, Andreas

    2010-02-01

    Optically Pumped Semiconductor Lasers - OPSLs - have been introduced in 2001. Their unique features such as power scalability and wavelength flexibility, their excellent beam parameters, power stability and reliability opened this pioneering technology access to a wide range of applications such as flow cytometry, confocal microscopy, sequencing, medical diagnosis and therapy, semiconductor inspection, graphic arts, forensic, metrology. This talk will introduce the OPSL principles and compare them with ion, diode and standard solid state lasers. It will revue the first 10 years of this exciting technology, its current state and trends. In particular currently accessible wavelengths and power ranges, frequency doubling, ultra-narrow linewidth possibilities will be discussed. A survey of key applications will be given.

  11. Burst-Switched Optical Networks Supporting Legacy and Future Service Types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Franzl

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the principles and the paradigm of OBS an overview addressing expectable performance and application issues is presented. Proposals on OBS were published over a decade and the presented techniques spread into many directions. The paper comprises discussions of several challenges that OBS meets, in order to compile the big picture. The OBS principle is presented unrestricted to individual proposals and trends. Merits are openly discussed, considering basic teletraffic theory and common traffic characterisation. A more generic OBS paradigm than usual is impartially discussed and found capable to overcome shortcomings of recent proposals. In conclusion, an OBS that offers different connection types may support most client demands within a sole optical network layer.

  12. Optically Transparent Nano-Patterned Antennas: A Review and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Yoon Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transparent antennas have been continuously developed for integration with solar cells, vehicular communications, and ultra-high-speed communications such as 5G in recent years. A transparent antenna takes advantage of spatial extensibility more so than all other antennas in terms of wide range of usable area. In addition, the production price of transparent antennas is steadily decreasing due to the development of nano-process technology. This paper reviews published studies of transparent antennas classified by various materials in terms of optical transmittance and electrical, sheet resistance. The transparent electrodes for the transparent antenna are logically classified and the transparent antennas are described according to the characteristics of each electrode. Finally, the contributions transparent antennas can make toward next-generation 5G high-speed communication are discussed.

  13. A virtual reality instrument: near-future perspective of computer simulations of ion optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veryovkin, Igor V.; Calaway, Wallis F.; Pellin, Michael J.

    2004-01-01

    The method of accurate modeling of complex ion optical systems is presented. It combines using SIMION 3D (c) with external software generating input ion sets and processing results of ion trajectory simulations. This method was used to simulate time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometer of secondary neutrals SARISA (Surface Analysis by Resonance Ionization of Sputtered Atoms), and results of simulations were compared to results of the experiments. It is demonstrated that the accuracy of the presented modeling method is sufficient to reproduce experimental TOF (mass) spectra and dependencies of the instrument useful yield on sputtering and ionization conditions. A concept of 'virtual reality instrument' as a logical extension of the method is discussed

  14. Fiber-based optic sensor for detecting human blood clot: present and future revival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshikeri, Nada; Bakhtiar, Hazri

    2018-05-01

    Sustaining human’s life-frame away from being impeded by the clot - ghost term, we attempt to approach a mobile fiber-based optical sensor (f-s) for detecting blood clot in a blood vessel (intra-arteries/veins). Blood vessels are the part of the circulatory system that transport blood throughout the human body, thus their significance of being protected arise to the monograph focus. MRI (magnetic resonance imaging), X-rays and other medical instruments are diagnostic immobility techniques with a slackest interval. The corer causation of fiber-based optical sensor is to detect a clump of blood in the bloodstream by providing a prompt mobile diagnostic intervals preserving last-minutes-breath of human’s life. The detector (f-s) has been etched by diluting sulphuric acid ~10% at certain zone to sensate its function. The in-vitro monograph peaks its maximal monitoring when the sensor is attached to Raman Spectroscopy (RS) setup. RS quantifies the relative intensities of fibrinogen bond, which is the first type of blood coagulation elements of blood plasma. Blood coagulation parameters are the major concern of the monograph investigation, such as total haemoglobin (tHb), clotting reaction time (t), clot progression time (t2), maximum clot amplitude (ma) and mean refractive index (r). A blood sample will be drawn from the patient and after centrifugation to separate blood plasma from its constituents, then an immediate sloshing of blood plasma in the (f-s) packet which has its plug-in to RS. Estimating the quantitative analysis of blood sample concentration, RS will determine the presence of coagulation in terms of intensity and medical procedures will dominate the treatment process. Thus, the suggestive monograph provides a definite instrument for investigating blood coagulation intra-arteries/veins promptly.

  15. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  16. Prediction of Aerosol Optical Depth in West Asia: Machine Learning Methods versus Numerical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omid Nabavi, Seyed; Haimberger, Leopold; Abbasi, Reyhaneh; Samimi, Cyrus

    2017-04-01

    Dust-prone areas of West Asia are releasing increasingly large amounts of dust particles during warm months. Because of the lack of ground-based observations in the region, this phenomenon is mainly monitored through remotely sensed aerosol products. The recent development of mesoscale Numerical Models (NMs) has offered an unprecedented opportunity to predict dust emission, and, subsequently Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Nevertheless, the significant uncertainties in input data and simulations of dust activation and transport limit the performance of numerical models in dust prediction. The presented study aims to evaluate if machine-learning algorithms (MLAs), which require much less computational expense, can yield the same or even better performance than NMs. Deep blue (DB) AOD, which is observed by satellites but also predicted by MLAs and NMs, is used for validation. We concentrate our evaluations on the over dry Iraq plains, known as the main origin of recently intensified dust storms in West Asia. Here we examine the performance of four MLAs including Linear regression Model (LM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Dust REgional Atmosphere Model (DREAM) are included as NMs. The MACC aerosol re-analysis of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) is also included, although it has assimilated satellite-based AOD data. Using the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) method, nine environmental features including soil moisture and temperature, NDVI, dust source function, albedo, dust uplift potential, vertical velocity, precipitation and 9-month SPEI drought index are selected for dust (AOD) modeling by MLAs. During the feature selection process, we noticed that NDVI and SPEI are of the highest importance in MLAs predictions. The data set was divided

  17. Optical simulations for design, alignment, and performance prediction of silicon pore optics for the ATHENA x-ray telescope

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spiga, D.; Della Monica Ferreira, Desiree; Shortt, B.

    2017-01-01

    of these aspects is required in order to assess the fabrication and alignment tolerances; moreover, the achievable effective area and angular resolution depend on the mirror module design. Therefore, guaranteeing these optical performances requires: a fast design tool to find the most performing solution in terms...

  18. Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction intervals for future BMI values of individual children - a non-parametric approach by quantile boosting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayr Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The construction of prediction intervals (PIs for future body mass index (BMI values of individual children based on a recent German birth cohort study with n = 2007 children is problematic for standard parametric approaches, as the BMI distribution in childhood is typically skewed depending on age. Methods We avoid distributional assumptions by directly modelling the borders of PIs by additive quantile regression, estimated by boosting. We point out the concept of conditional coverage to prove the accuracy of PIs. As conditional coverage can hardly be evaluated in practical applications, we conduct a simulation study before fitting child- and covariate-specific PIs for future BMI values and BMI patterns for the present data. Results The results of our simulation study suggest that PIs fitted by quantile boosting cover future observations with the predefined coverage probability and outperform the benchmark approach. For the prediction of future BMI values, quantile boosting automatically selects informative covariates and adapts to the age-specific skewness of the BMI distribution. The lengths of the estimated PIs are child-specific and increase, as expected, with the age of the child. Conclusions Quantile boosting is a promising approach to construct PIs with correct conditional coverage in a non-parametric way. It is in particular suitable for the prediction of BMI patterns depending on covariates, since it provides an interpretable predictor structure, inherent variable selection properties and can even account for longitudinal data structures.

  20. Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: organic carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

    2015-03-01

    Organic carbon (OC) can constitute 50% or more of the mass of atmospheric particulate matter. Typically, organic carbon is measured from a quartz fiber filter that has been exposed to a volume of ambient air and analyzed using thermal methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR). Here, methods are presented that show the feasibility of using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters to accurately predict TOR OC. This work marks an initial step in proposing a method that can reduce the operating costs of large air quality monitoring networks with an inexpensive, non-destructive analysis technique using routinely collected PTFE filter samples which, in addition to OC concentrations, can concurrently provide information regarding the composition of organic aerosol. This feasibility study suggests that the minimum detection limit and errors (or uncertainty) of FT-IR predictions are on par with TOR OC such that evaluation of long-term trends and epidemiological studies would not be significantly impacted. To develop and test the method, FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least-squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to TOR OC. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets by sampling site and date. The calibration produces precise and accurate TOR OC predictions of the test set samples by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of variation (R2; 0.96), low bias (0.02 μg m-3, the nominal IMPROVE sample volume is 32.8 m3), low error (0.08 μg m-3) and low normalized error (11%). These performance metrics can be achieved with various degrees of spectral pretreatment (e.g., including or excluding substrate contributions to the absorbances) and are comparable in precision to collocated TOR measurements. FT-IR spectra are also

  1. Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

    2011-10-01

    Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (Precall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessment of Spacecraft Operational Status Using Electro-Optical Predictive Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    panel appendages, may require enhanced preflight characterization processes to support monitoring by passive, remote, nonimaging optical sensors...observing and characterizing key spacecraft features. The simulation results are based on electro-optical signatures apparent to nonimaging sensors, along...and communication equipment, may require enhanced preflight characterization processes to support monitoring by passive, remote, nonimaging optical

  3. First Considerations on Beam Optics and Lattice Design for the Future Hadron-Hadron Collider FCC

    CERN Document Server

    Alemany Fernandez, R

    2014-01-01

    The present document explains the steps carried out in order to make the first design of the Future Hadron-Hadron Collider (FCC-hh) following the base line parameters that can be found in [1]. Two lattice layouts are presented, a ring collider with 12 arcs and 12 straight sections, four of them designed as interaction points, and a racetrack like collider with two arcs and two straight sections, each of them equipped with two interaction points. The lattice design presented in the paper is modular allowing the same modules be used for both layouts. The present document addresses as well the beta star reach at the interaction points.

  4. Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

    2015-12-01

    Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, Jakob; Gijsenberg, Maarten; Verhoef, Pieter C

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  6. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, J.E.; Gijsenberg, M.J.; Verhoef, P.C.

    2017-01-01

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  7. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  8. Optical Spectroscopy Approach for the Predictive Assessment of Kidney Functional Recovery Following Ischemic Injury

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raman, R N; Pivetti, C D; Rubenchik, A M; Matthews, D L; Troppmann, C; Demos, S G

    2010-02-11

    Tissue that has undergone significant yet unknown amount of ischemic injury is frequently encountered in organ transplantation and trauma clinics. With no reliable real-time method of assessing the degree of injury incurred in tissue, surgeons generally rely on visual observation which is subjective. In this work, we investigate the use of optical spectroscopy methods as a potentially more reliable approach. Previous work by various groups was strongly suggestive that tissue autofluorescence from NADH obtained under UV excitation is sensitive to metabolic response changes. To test and expand upon this concept, we monitored autofluorescence and light scattering intensities of injured vs. uninjured rat kidneys via multimodal imaging under 355 nm, 325 nm, and 266 nm excitation as well as scattering under 500 nm illumination. 355 nm excitation was used to probe mainly NADH, a metabolite, while 266 nm excitation was used to probe mainly tryptophan to correct for non-metabolic signal artifacts. The ratio of autofluorescence intensities derived under these two excitation wavelengths was calculated and its temporal profile was fit to a relaxation model. Time constants were extracted, and longer time constants were associated with kidney dysfunction. Analysis of both the autofluorescence and light scattering images suggests that changes in microstructure tissue morphology, blood absorption spectral characteristics, and pH contribute to the behavior of the observed signal which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer predictive capability.

  9. Prediction of post-operative necrosis after mastectomy: A pilot study utilizing optical diffusion imaging spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Xian-Jin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Flap necrosis and epidermolysis occurs in 18-30% of all mastectomies. Complications may be prevented by intra-operative detection of ischemia. Currently, no technique enables quantitative valuation of mastectomy skin perfusion. Optical Diffusion Imaging Spectroscopy (ViOptix T.Ox Tissue Oximeter measures the ratio of oxyhemoglobin to deoxyhemoglobin over a 1 × 1 cm area to obtain a non-invasive measurement of perfusion (StO2. Methods This study evaluates the ability of ViOptix T.Ox Tissue Oximeter to predict mastectomy flap necrosis. StO2 measurements were taken at five points before and at completion of dissection in 10 patients. Data collected included: demographics, tumor size, flap length/thickness, co-morbidities, procedure length, and wound complications. Results One patient experienced mastectomy skin flap necrosis. Five patients underwent immediate reconstruction, including the patient with necrosis. Statistically significant factors contributing to necrosis included reduction in medial flap StO2 (p = 0.0189, reduction in inferior flap StO2 (p = 0.003, and flap length (p = 0.009. Conclusion StO2 reductions may be utilized to identify impaired perfusion in mastectomy skin flaps.

  10. Optical spectroscopy approach for the predictive assessment of kidney functional recovery following ischemic injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Rajesh N.; Pivetti, Christopher D.; Rubenchik, Alexander M.; Matthews, Dennis L.; Troppmann, Christoph; Demos, Stavros G.

    2010-02-01

    Tissue that has undergone significant yet unknown amount of ischemic injury is frequently encountered in organ transplantation and trauma clinics. With no reliable real-time method of assessing the degree of injury incurred in tissue, surgeons generally rely on visual observation which is subjective. In this work, we investigate the use of optical spectroscopy methods as a potentially more reliable approach. Previous work by various groups was strongly suggestive that tissue autofluorescence from NADH obtained under UV excitation is sensitive to metabolic response changes. To test and expand upon this concept, we monitored autofluorescence and light scattering intensities of injured vs. uninjured rat kidneys via multimodal imaging under 355 nm, 325 nm, and 266 nm excitation as well as scattering under 500 nm illumination. 355 nm excitation was used to probe mainly NADH, a metabolite, while 266 nm excitation was used to probe mainly tryptophan to correct for non-metabolic signal artifacts. The ratio of autofluorescence intensities derived under these two excitation wavelengths was calculated and its temporal profile was fit to a relaxation model. Time constants were extracted, and longer time constants were associated with kidney dysfunction. Analysis of both the autofluorescence and light scattering images suggests that changes in microstructure tissue morphology, blood absorption spectral characteristics, and pH contribute to the behavior of the observed signal which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer predictive capability.

  11. Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance measurements from infrared spectra: elemental carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

    2015-10-01

    Elemental carbon (EC) is an important constituent of atmospheric particulate matter because it absorbs solar radiation influencing climate and visibility and it adversely affects human health. The EC measured by thermal methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) is operationally defined as the carbon that volatilizes from quartz filter samples at elevated temperatures in the presence of oxygen. Here, methods are presented to accurately predict TOR EC using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from atmospheric particulate matter collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters. This method is similar to the procedure developed for OC in prior work (Dillner and Takahama, 2015). Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive and nondestructive to the PTFE filter samples which are routinely collected for mass and elemental analysis in monitoring networks. FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 filter samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to collocated TOR EC measurements. The FT-IR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets. Two calibrations are developed: one developed from uniform distribution of samples across the EC mass range (Uniform EC) and one developed from a uniform distribution of Low EC mass samples (EC < 2.4 μg, Low Uniform EC). A hybrid approach which applies the Low EC calibration to Low EC samples and the Uniform EC calibration to all other samples is used to produce predictions for Low EC samples that have mean error on par with parallel TOR EC samples in the same mass range and an estimate of the minimum detection limit (MDL) that is on par with TOR EC MDL. For all samples, this hybrid approach leads to precise and accurate TOR EC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of determination (R2; 0.96), no bias (0.00 μg m-3, a

  12. Predicting ambient aerosol Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: elemental carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

    2015-06-01

    Elemental carbon (EC) is an important constituent of atmospheric particulate matter because it absorbs solar radiation influencing climate and visibility and it adversely affects human health. The EC measured by thermal methods such as Thermal-Optical Reflectance (TOR) is operationally defined as the carbon that volatilizes from quartz filter samples at elevated temperatures in the presence of oxygen. Here, methods are presented to accurately predict TOR EC using Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from atmospheric particulate matter collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters. This method is similar to the procedure tested and developed for OC in prior work (Dillner and Takahama, 2015). Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive, and non-destructive to the PTFE filter samples which are routinely collected for mass and elemental analysis in monitoring networks. FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 filter samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to collocated TOR EC measurements. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets. Two calibrations are developed, one which is developed from uniform distribution of samples across the EC mass range (Uniform EC) and one developed from a~uniform distribution of low EC mass samples (EC < 2.4 μg, Low Uniform EC). A hybrid approach which applies the low EC calibration to low EC samples and the Uniform EC calibration to all other samples is used to produces predictions for low EC samples that have mean error on par with parallel TOR EC samples in the same mass range and an estimate of the minimum detection limit (MDL) that is on par with TOR EC MDL. For all samples, this hybrid approach leads to precise and accurate TOR EC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of variation (R2; 0.96), no

  13. State of art: Optically stimulated luminescence dosimetry – Frontiers of future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukihara, Eduardo G.; McKeever, Stephen W.S.; Akselrod, Mark S.

    2014-01-01

    Since the commercial adoption of the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) technique in dosimetry, almost 20 years ago, we have seen major advances in the deployment of OSL dosimeters in different areas, including personal, medical, and space dosimetry. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical overlook at the OSL technique from three different points of view: strengths, challenges and opportunities. We discuss factors that made the OSL technique successful: its simplicity, accuracy, wide dynamic range of measured dose, ease for automation, re-read capability, ability to perform imaging, and the availability of diverse instruments and materials. We look into problems that were overcome and others that remain in several areas of new applications into which OSL has expanded in the past 10 years, such as medical, space, neutron and accident dosimetry. Finally, we discuss unexplored possibilities, new driving forces, and open questions. We hope the broad overview presented here will encourage more discussion and stimulate the research that will advance our fundamental understanding of the OSL process. - Highlights: • Critical overlook of the OSL technique is presented. • Factors that made the OSL technique successful are discussed. • New applications in medical, space and accident dosimetry are discussed. • Unexplored possibilities, new driving forces, and open questions are presented

  14. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  15. Exploiting the Past and the Future in Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Frasconi, P

    1999-01-01

    predictions based on variable ranges of dependencies. These architectures extend recurrent neural networks, introducing non-causal bidirectional dynamics to capture both upstream and downstream information. The prediction algorithm is completed by the use of mixtures of estimators that leverage evolutionary......Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alpha-helix, beta-sheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three-dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network...

  16. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  17. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  18. The current and future use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics

    OpenAIRE

    Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to...

  19. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-05-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems.

  20. Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

    2016-11-01

    The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Characterization and Predictive Value of Near Infrared 2-Deoxyglucose Optical Imaging in Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane de Oliveira

    , which were not predicted by the blood parameters.In-vivo fluorescent imaging of a non-radioactive near infrared 2-DG optical probe can predict the AP severity early during the disease.

  2. The predictive power of dividend yields for future inflation: Money illusion or rational causes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    slope coefficients that increase numerically with the horizon in regressions of future inflation onto the dividend yield, in accordance with the data. A purely rational version of the model with no money illusion, but with a link from expected inflation to real consumption growth, also generates...

  3. Predicting Gas Production from future gas discoveries in the Netherlands: Quantity, location, timing, quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutgert, J.; Mijnlieff, H.; Breunese, J.

    2005-01-01

    Recent policy and market developments have raised the question not only as to how much gas remains to be discovered in the Netherlands but also where and when it will be produced and of what quality. These questions are addressed by compiling a 'firm futures' database, estimating the 'potential

  4. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  5. Subjective memory complaints in general practice predicts future dementia: a 4-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldorff, Frans Boch; Vogel, Asmus Mejling; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2012-01-01

    Many older patients in general practice have subjective memory complaints (SMC); however, not all share this information with their general practitioner (GP). The association between SMC and future cognitive decline or dementia is not clear, especially in a general practice population. The aim...

  6. An Economic Model to Predict Future State of Nature and Corresponding Strategic Posture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-09

    16 Strategic Thinking ...80 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when...successfully hedge and bet on military future military capabilities. Reductions in the budget and the devaluation of the dollar can lead to constraints on

  7. Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Genome-based prediction of common diseases: Methodological considerations for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.J.W. Janssens (Cécile); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe translation of emerging genomic knowledge into public health and clinical care is one of the major challenges for the coming decades. At the moment, genome-based prediction of common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, is still not informative. Our

  10. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  11. The relationship between formative and summative examinations and PANCE scores; can the past predict the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Scott; Stallman, John; Lee, Louise; Klingaman, Kathy; Holmerud, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how a systematic analysis of students at risk for failing the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) may be used to identify which students may benefit from intervention prior to taking the PANCE and thus increase the likelihood of successful completion of the PANCE. The intervention developed and implemented uses various formative and summative examinations to predict students' PANCE scores with a high degree of accuracy. Eight end-of-rotation exams (EOREs) based upon discipline-specific diseases and averaging 100 questions each, a 360-question PANCE simulation (SUMM I), the PACKRAT, and a 700-question summative cognitive examination based upon the NCCPA blueprint (SUMM II) were administered to all students enrolled in the program during the clinical year starting in January 2010 and concluding in December 2010. When the PACKRAT, SUMM I, SUMM II, and the surgery, women's health, and pediatrics EOREs were combined in a regression model, an Rvalue of 0.87 and an R2 of 0.75 were obtained. A predicted score was generated for the class of 2009. The predicted PANCE score based upon this model had a final correlation of 0.790 with the actual PANCE score. This pilot study demonstrated that valid predicted scores could be generated from formative and summative examinations to provide valuable feedback and to identify students at risk of failing the PANCE.

  12. Scanning laser polarimetry, but not optical coherence tomography predicts permanent visual field loss in acute nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupersmith, Mark J; Anderson, Susan; Durbin, Mary; Kardon, Randy

    2013-08-15

    Scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) reveals abnormal retardance of birefringence in locations of the edematous peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), which appear thickened by optical coherence tomography (OCT), in nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION). We hypothesize initial sector SLP RNFL abnormalities will correlate with long-term regional visual field loss due to ischemic injury. We prospectively performed automated perimetry, SLP, and high definition OCT (HD-OCT) of the RNFL in 25 eyes with acute NAION. We grouped visual field threshold and RNFL values into Garway-Heath inferior/superior disc sectors and corresponding superior/inferior field regions. We compared sector SLP RNFL thickness with corresponding visual field values at presentation and at >3 months. At presentation, 12 eyes had superior sector SLP reduction, 11 of which had inferior field loss. Six eyes, all with superior field loss, had inferior sector SLP reduction. No eyes had reduced OCT-derived RNFL acutely. Eyes with abnormal field regions had corresponding SLP sectors thinner (P = 0.003) than for sectors with normal field regions. During the acute phase, the SLP-derived sector correlated with presentation (r = 0.59, P = 0.02) and with >3-month after presentation (r = 0.44, P = 0.02) corresponding superior and inferior field thresholds. Abnormal RNFL birefringence occurs in sectors corresponding to regional visual field loss during acute NAION when OCT-derived RNFL shows thickening. Since the visual field deficits show no significant recovery, SLP can be an early marker for axonal injury, which may be used to assess recovery potential at RNFL locations with respect to new treatments for acute NAION.

  13. Design Rework Prediction in Concurrent Design Environment: Current Trends and Future Research Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Arundachawat, Panumas; Roy, Rajkumar; Al-Ashaab, Ahmed; Shehab, Essam

    2009-01-01

    Organised by: Cranfield University This paper aims to present state-of-the-art and formulate future research areas on design rework in concurrent design environment. Related literatures are analysed to extract the key factors which impact design rework. Design rework occurs due to changes from upstream design activities and/or by feedbacks from downstream design activities. Design rework is considered as negative iteration; therefore, value in design activities will be increase...

  14. The ALMA high speed optical communication link is here: an essential component for reliable present and future operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippi, G.; Ibsen, J.; Jaque, S.; Liello, F.; Ovando, N.; Astudillo, A.; Parra, J.; Saldias, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Announced in 2012, started in 2013 and completed in 2015, the ALMA high bandwidth communication system has become a key factor to achieve the operational and scientific goals of ALMA. This paper summarizes the technical, organizational, and operational goals of the ALMA Optical Link Project, focused in the creation and operation of an effective and sustainable communication infrastructure to connect the ALMA Operations Support Facility and Array Operations Site, both located in the Atacama Desert in the Northern region of Chile, with the point of presence of REUNA in Antofagasta, about 400km away, and from there to the Santiago Central Office in the Chilean capital through the optical infrastructure created by the EC-funded EVALSO project and now an integral part of the REUNA backbone. This new infrastructure completed in 2014 and now operated on behalf of ALMA by REUNA, the Chilean National Research and Education Network, uses state of the art technologies, like dark fiber from newly built cables and DWDM transmission, allowing extending the reach of high capacity communication to the remote region where the Observatory is located. The paper also reports on the results obtained during the first year and a half testing and operation period, where different operational set ups have been experienced for data transfer, remote collaboration, etc. Finally, the authors will present a forward look of the impact of it to both the future scientific development of the Chajnantor Plateau, where many installations area are (and will be) located, as well as the potential Chilean scientific backbone long term development.

  15. Modeling of steroid estrogen contamination in UK and South Australian rivers predicts modest increases in concentrations in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher; Williams, Richard; Kanda, Rakesh; Churchley, John; He, Ying; Thomas, Shaun; Goonan, Peter; Kumar, Anu; Jobling, Susan

    2013-07-02

    The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions. The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.

  16. Can personality traits predict the future development of heart disease in hospitalized psychiatric veterans?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Wright; Kunik, Mark E; Springer, Justin; Graham, David P

    2013-11-01

    To examine which personality traits are associated with the new onset of chronic coronary heart disease (CHD) in psychiatric inpatients within 16 years after their initial evaluation. We theorized that personality measures of depression, anxiety, hostility, social isolation, and substance abuse would predict CHD development in psychiatric inpatients. We used a longitudinal database of psychological test data from 349 Veterans first admitted to a psychiatric unit between October 1, 1983, and September 30, 1987. Veterans Affairs and national databases were assessed to determine the development of new-onset chronic CHD over the intervening 16-year period. New-onset CHD developed in 154 of the 349 (44.1%) subjects. Thirty-one psychometric variables from five personality tests significantly predicted the development of CHD. We performed a factor analysis of these variables because they overlapped and four factors emerged, with positive adaptive functioning the only significant factor (OR=0.798, p=0.038). These results support previous research linking personality traits to the development of CHD, extending this association to a population of psychiatric inpatients. Compilation of these personality measures showed that 31 overlapping psychometric variables predicted those Veterans who developed a diagnosis of heart disease within 16 years after their initial psychiatric hospitalization. Our results suggest that personality variables measuring positive adaptive functioning are associated with a reduced risk of developing chronic CHD.

  17. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  18. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  19. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  20. Comparison of intraocular lens power prediction using immersion ultrasound and optical biometry with and without formula optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemeth, Gabor; Nagy, Attila; Berta, Andras; Modis, Laszlo

    2012-09-01

    Comparison of postoperative refraction results using ultrasound biometry with closed immersion shell and optical biometry. Three hundred and sixty-four eyes of 306 patients (age: 70.6 ± 12.8 years) underwent cataract surgery where intraocular lenses calculated by SRK/T formula were implanted. In 159 cases immersion ultrasonic biometry, in 205 eyes optical biometry was used. Differences between predicted and actual postoperative refractions were calculated both prior to and after optimization with the SRK/T formula, after which we analysed the similar data in the case of Holladay, Haigis, and Hoffer-Q formulas. Mean absolute error (MAE) and the percentage rate of patients within ±0.5 and ±1.0 D difference in the predicted error were calculated with these four formulas. MAE was 0.5-0.7 D in cases of both methods with SRK/T, Holladay, and Hoffer-Q formula, but higher with Haigis formula. With no optimization, 60-65 % of the patients were under 0.5 D error in the immersion group (except for Haigis formula). Using the optical method, this value was slightly higher (62-67 %), however, in this case, Haigis formula also did not perform so well (45 %). Refraction results significantly improved with Holladay, Hoffer-Q, and Haigis formulas in both groups. The rate of patients under 0.5 D error increased to 65 % by the immersion technique, and up to 80 % by the optical one. According to our results, optical biometry offers only slightly better outcomes compared to those of immersion shell with no optimized formulas. However, in case of new generation formulas with both methods, the optimization of IOL-constants give significantly better results.

  1. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  2. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Jaffe

    Full Text Available Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  3. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  4. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

  5. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  6. Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrahimi, Nader

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers prediction of unknown number of failures in a future inspection of a group of in-service units based on number of failures observed from an earlier inspection. We develop a flexible Bayesian model and calculate Bayesian estimator for this unknown number and other quantities of interest. The paper also includes an illustration of our method in an example about heat exchanger. A main advantage of our approach is in its nonparametric nature. By nonparametric here we simply mean that no assumption is required about the failure time distribution of a unit

  7. Quantitative characterization of myocardial infarction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts future cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauly John M

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR can provide quantitative data of the myocardial tissue utilizing high spatial and temporal resolution along with exquisite tissue contrast. Previous studies have correlated myocardial scar tissue with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia. This study was conducted to evaluate whether characterization of myocardial infarction by CMR can predict cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM. Results We consecutively studied 86 patients with ICM (LVEF Conclusion Quantification of the scar volume and scar percentage by CMR is superior to LVEDV, LVESV, and LVEF in prognosticating the future likelihood of the development of cardiovascular events in patients with ICM.

  8. Unrequested information from routine diagnostic chest CT predicts future cardiovascular events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, Peter C.; Gondrie, Martijn J.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Graaf, Yolanda van der; Mali, Willem P.; Oen, Ayke L.; Prokop, Mathias

    2011-01-01

    An increase in the number of CT investigations will likely result in a an increase in unrequested information. Clinical relevance of these findings is unknown. This is the first follow-up study to investigate the prognostic relevance of subclinical coronary (CAC) and aortic calcification (TAC) as contained in routine diagnostic chest CT in a clinical care population. The follow-up of 10,410 subjects (>40 years) from a multicentre, clinical care-based cohort of patients included 240 fatal to 275 non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (mean follow-up 17.8 months). Patients with a history of CVD were excluded. Coronary (0-12) and aortic calcification (0-8) were semi-quantitatively scored. We used Cox proportional-hazard models to compute hazard ratios to predict CVD events. CAC and TAC were significantly and independently predictive of CVD events. Compared with subjects with no calcium, the adjusted risk of a CVD event was 3.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.7-5.2) among patients with severe coronary calcification (CAC score ≥6) and 2.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.0-3.7) among patients with severe aortic calcification (TAC score ≥5). Subclinical vascular calcification on CT is a strong predictor of incident CVD events in a routine clinical care population. (orig.)

  9. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesper Bruun

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1 communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category, (2 communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category, and (3 social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI scores. We find highly significant correlations (p<0.001 between network centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network, the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation

  10. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

  11. Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Richard C; Currie, Bart J; Lindsay, Michael D; Mackenzie, John S; Ritchie, Scott A; Whelan, Peter I

    2009-03-02

    Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

  12. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression. PMID:22060677

  13. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Berg Martha

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11 and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44% of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22 suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10 of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003. Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression.

  14. CN earthquake prediction algorithm and the monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    The strong earthquakes originating at intermediate-depth in the Vrancea region (located in the SE corner of the highly bent Carpathian arc) represent one of the most important natural disasters able to induce heavy effects (high tool of casualties and extensive damage) in the Romanian territory. The occurrence of these earthquakes is irregular, but not infrequent. Their effects are felt over a large territory, from Central Europe to Moscow and from Greece to Scandinavia. The largest cultural and economical center exposed to the seismic risk due to the Vrancea earthquakes is Bucharest. This metropolitan area (230 km 2 wide) is characterized by the presence of 2.5 million inhabitants (10% of the country population) and by a considerable number of high-risk structures and infrastructures. The best way to face strong earthquakes is to mitigate the seismic risk by using the two possible complementary approaches represented by (a) the antiseismic design of structures and infrastructures (able to support strong earthquakes without significant damage), and (b) the strong earthquake prediction (in terms of alarm intervals declared for long, intermediate or short-term space-and time-windows). The intermediate term medium-range earthquake prediction represents the most realistic target to be reached at the present state of knowledge. The alarm declared in this case extends over a time window of about one year or more, and a space window of a few hundreds of kilometers. In the case of Vrancea events the spatial uncertainty is much less, being of about 100 km. The main measures for the mitigation of the seismic risk allowed by the intermediate-term medium-range prediction are: (a) verification of the buildings and infrastructures stability and reinforcement measures when required, (b) elaboration of emergency plans of action, (c) schedule of the main actions required in order to restore the normality of the social and economical life after the earthquake. The paper presents the

  15. Trying to predict the future – resource planning and allocation in CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloom, Kenneth; Fisk, Ian; Kreuzer, Peter; Merino, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In the large LHC experiments the majority of computing resources are provided by the participating countries. These resource pledges account for more than three quarters of the total available computing. The experiments are asked to give indications of their requests three years in advance and to evolve these as the details and constraints become clearer. In this paper we will discuss the resource planning techniques used in CMS to predict the computing resources several years in advance. We will discuss how we attempt to implement the activities of the computing model in spread-sheets and formulas to calculate the needs. We will talk about how those needs are reflected in the 2012 running and how the planned long shutdown of the LHC in 2013 and 2014 impacts the planning process and the outcome. In the end we will speculate on the computing needs in the second major run of LHC.

  16. Trying to Predict the Future - Resource Planning and Allocation in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Kreuzer, Peter; Fisk, Ian; Merino, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In the large LHC experiments the majority of computing resources are provided by the participating countries. These resource pledges account for more than three quarters of the total available computing. The experiments are asked to give indications of their requests three years in advance and to evolve these as the details and constraints become clearer. In this presentation we will discuss the resource planning techniques used in CMS to predict the computing resources several years in advance. We will discuss how we attempt to implement the activities of the computing model in spreadsheets and formulas to calculate the needs. We will talk about how those needs are reflected in the 2012 running and how the planned long shutdown of the LHC in 2013 and 2014 impact the planning process and the outcome. In the end we will speculate on the computing needs in the second major run of LHC.

  17. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

  18. Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

  19. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  20. Development of predictions of future pollution problems. Socio-economic environmental studies series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flinn, J.E.; Reimers, R.S.

    1974-03-01

    The report describes the results of a program to identify, rank and project short- and intermediate-term future pollution problems. Identification was accomplished using three independent search approaches based on industrial production, environmental, and societal trends and activity. Primary emphasis was placed on the environmental trends as gleaned from EPA, Battelle, Literature, and other sources. An initial list of problems was compiled with specific stressors identified with each. Nine ranking factors were devised to select ten most serious problems from the initial list. The factors included: persistence; mobility/pervasiveness; environmental, technological, social, and political complexity; physiological risk; research needs; and bulk or volume of the pollutant. The ten problems selected by this method were further ranked in order of relative importance. The ten selected problems in rank order are as follows: (1) Impacts of new energy initiatives; (2) Geophysical modifications of the earth; (3) Trace element (metal) contaminants; (4) Proliferating hazardous and toxic chemicals; (5) Emissions from new automobile fuels, additives, and control devices; (6) Disposal of waste sludges, liquids, and solid residues; (7) Critical radiation problems; (8) Fine particulates; (9) Expanding drinking water contamination; (10) Irrigation (impoundment) practices. Five to ten year projections were made of the ten problems which resulted

  1. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  2. arXiv Improved Monte Carlo Glauber predictions at present and future nuclear colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Loizides, Constantin; d'Enterria, David

    2018-05-23

    We present the results of an improved Monte Carlo Glauber (MCG) model of relevance for collisions involving nuclei at center-of-mass energies of BNL RHIC ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=0.2$ TeV), CERN LHC ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=2.76$-$8.8$ TeV), and proposed future hadron colliders ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}\\approx 10$-$63$ TeV). The inelastic pp cross sections as a function of $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}$ are obtained from a precise data-driven parametrization that exploits the many available measurements at LHC collision energies. We describe the nuclear transverse profile with two separated 2-parameter Fermi distributions for protons and neutrons to account for their different densities close to the nuclear periphery. Furthermore, we model the nucleon degrees of freedom inside the nucleus through a lattice with a minimum nodal separation, combined with a "recentering and reweighting" procedure, that overcomes some limitations of previous MCG approaches. The nuclear overlap function, number of participant nucleons and binary nucleon-nuc...

  3. Do AAO-HNSF CORE Grants Predict Future NIH Funding Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eloy, Jean Anderson; Svider, Peter F; Kanumuri, Vivek V; Folbe, Adam J; Setzen, Michael; Baredes, Soly

    2014-08-01

    To determine (1) whether academic otolaryngologists who have received an American Academy of Otolaryngology- Head and Neck Surgery Foundation (AAO-HNSF) Centralized Otolaryngology Research Efforts (CORE) grant are more likely to procure future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding; (2) whether CORE grants or NIH Career Development (K) awards have a stronger association with scholarly impact. Historical cohort. Scholarly impact, as measured by the h-index, publication experience, and prior grant history, were determined for CORE-funded and non-CORE-funded academic otolaryngologists. All individuals were assessed for NIH funding history. Of 192 academic otolaryngologists with a CORE funding history, 39.6% had active or prior NIH awards versus 15.1% of 1002 non-CORE-funded faculty (P productivity than those with CORE funding history. Both cohorts had higher scholarly impact values than previously published figures among academic otolaryngologists, highlighting that both CORE grants and NIH K-grants awards are effective career development resources. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

  4. Persistent high job demands and reactivity to mental stress predict future ambulatory blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Cropley, M

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that work stress (persistent high job demands over 1 year) in combination with high reactivity to mental stress predict ambulatory blood pressure. Assessment of cardiovascular responses to standardized behavioural tasks, job demands, and ambulatory blood pressure over a working day and evening after 12 months. We studied 81 school teachers (26 men, 55 women), 36 of whom experienced persistent high job demands over 1 year, while 45 reported lower job demands. Participants were divided on the basis of high and low job demands, and high and low systolic pressure reactions to an uncontrollable stress task. Blood pressure and concurrent physical activity were monitored using ambulatory apparatus from 0900 to 2230 h on a working day. Cardiovascular stress reactivity was associated with waist/hip ratio. Systolic and diastolic pressure during the working day were greater in high job demand participants who were stress reactive than in other groups, after adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, body mass index and negative affectivity. The difference was not accounted for by variations in physical activity. Cardiovascular stress reactivity and sustained psychosocial stress may act in concert to increase cardiovascular risk in susceptible individuals.

  5. An oracle: antituberculosis pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics, clinical correlation, and clinical trial simulations to predict the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasipanodya, Jotam; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2011-01-01

    Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

  6. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  7. Functional immunomics: microarray analysis of IgG autoantibody repertoires predicts the future response of mice to induced diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Francisco J; Hagedorn, Peter H; Elizur, Gad; Merbl, Yifat; Domany, Eytan; Cohen, Irun R

    2004-10-05

    One's present repertoire of antibodies encodes the history of one's past immunological experience. Can the present autoantibody repertoire be consulted to predict resistance or susceptibility to the future development of an autoimmune disease? Here, we developed an antigen microarray chip and used bioinformatic analysis to study a model of type 1 diabetes developing in nonobese diabetic male mice in which the disease was accelerated and synchronized by exposing the mice to cyclophosphamide at 4 weeks of age. We obtained sera from 19 individual mice, treated the mice to induce cyclophosphamide-accelerated diabetes (CAD), and found, as expected, that 9 mice became severely diabetic, whereas 10 mice permanently resisted diabetes. We again obtained serum from each mouse after CAD induction. We then analyzed, by using rank-order and superparamagnetic clustering, the patterns of antibodies in individual mice to 266 different antigens spotted on the chip. A selected panel of 27 different antigens (10% of the array) revealed a pattern of IgG antibody reactivity in the pre-CAD sera that discriminated between the mice resistant or susceptible to CAD with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity (P = 0.017). Surprisingly, the set of IgG antibodies that was informative before CAD induction did not separate the resistant and susceptible groups after the onset of CAD; new antigens became critical for post-CAD repertoire discrimination. Thus, at least for a model disease, present antibody repertoires can predict future disease, predictive and diagnostic repertoires can differ, and decisive information about immune system behavior can be mined by bioinformatic technology. Repertoires matter.

  8. Predicting hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in a future phase III HIV vaccine trial among high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giocos, Georgina; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie

    2008-11-01

    The present study sought to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted stated hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in future Phase III HIV vaccine trials among South African adolescents. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) significantly predicted WTP. Of all the predictors, Subjective norms significantly predicted WTP (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.06-1.34). A stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that Subjective Norms (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.07-1.34) and Attitude towards participation in an HIV vaccine trial (OR = 1.32, 95% C.I. = 1.00-1.74) were significant predictors of WTP. The addition of Knowledge of HIV vaccines and HIV vaccine trials, Perceived self-risk of HIV infection, Health-promoting behaviours and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS yielded non-significant results. These findings provide support for the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and suggest that psychosocial factors may play an important role in WTP in Phase III HIV vaccine trials among adolescents.

  9. Improved Monte Carlo Glauber predictions at present and future nuclear colliders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizides, Constantin; Kamin, Jason; d'Enterria, David

    2018-05-01

    We present the results of an improved Monte Carlo Glauber (MCG) model of relevance for collisions involving nuclei at center-of-mass energies of the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (√{sNN}=0.2 TeV), CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) (√{sNN}=2.76 -8.8 TeV ), and proposed future hadron colliders (√{sNN}≈10 -63 TeV). The inelastic p p cross sections as a function of √{sNN} are obtained from a precise data-driven parametrization that exploits the many available measurements at LHC collision energies. We describe the nuclear density of a lead nucleus with two separated two-parameter Fermi distributions for protons and neutrons to account for their different densities close to the nuclear periphery. Furthermore, we model the nucleon degrees of freedom inside the nucleus through a lattice with a minimum nodal separation, combined with a "recentering and reweighting" procedure, that overcomes some limitations of previous MCG approaches. The nuclear overlap function, number of participant nucleons and binary nucleon-nucleon collisions, participant eccentricity and triangularity, overlap area, and average path length are presented in intervals of percentile centrality for lead-lead (PbPb) and proton-lead (p Pb ) collisions at all collision energies. We demonstrate for collisions at √{sNN}=5.02 TeV that the central values of the Glauber quantities change by up to 7% in a few bins of reaction centrality, due to the improvements implemented, though typically they remain within the previously assigned systematic uncertainties, while their new associated uncertainties are generally smaller (mostly below 5%) at all centralities than for earlier calculations. Tables for all quantities versus centrality at present and foreseen collision energies involving Pb nuclei, as well as for collisions of XeXe at √{sNN}=5.44 TeV , and AuAu and CuCu at √{sNN}=0.2 TeV , are provided. The source code for the improved Monte Carlo Glauber model is made publicly available.

  10. Accurate Prediction of Transimpedances and Equivalent Input Noise Current Densities of Tuned Optical Receiver Front Ends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Qing Zhong

    1991-01-01

    Novel analytical expressions have been derived for calculating transimpedances and equivalent input noise current densities of five tuned optical receiver front ends based on PIN diode and MESFETs or HEMTs. Miller's capacitance, which has been omitted in previous studies, has been taken...

  11. Information rates and post-FEC BER prediction in optical fiber communications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alvarado, Alex

    2017-01-01

    Information-theoretic metrics to analyze optical fiber communications systems with binary and nonbinary soft-decision FEC are reviewed. The numerical evaluation of these metrics in both simulations and experiments is also discussed. Ready-to-use closed-form approximations are presented.

  12. An analytical method for predicting the geometrical and optical properties of the human lens under accommodation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheil, Conor J; Bahrami, Mehdi; Goncharov, Alexander V

    2014-05-01

    We present an analytical method to describe the accommodative changes in the human crystalline lens. The method is based on the geometry-invariant lens model, in which the gradient-index (GRIN) iso-indicial contours are coupled to the external shape. This feature ensures that any given number of iso-indicial contours does not change with accommodation, which preserves the optical integrity of the GRIN structure. The coupling also enables us to define the GRIN structure if the radii and asphericities of the external lens surfaces are known. As an example, the accommodative changes in lenticular radii and central thickness were taken from the literature, while the asphericities of the external surfaces were derived analytically by adhering to the basic physical conditions of constant lens volume and its axial position. The resulting changes in lens geometry are consistent with experimental data, and the optical properties are in line with expected values for optical power and spherical aberration. The aim of the paper is to provide an anatomically and optically accurate lens model that is valid for 3 mm pupils and can be used as a new tool for better understanding of accommodation.

  13. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  14. Burnout during nursing education predicts lower occupational preparedness and future clinical performance: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudman, Ann; Gustavsson, J Petter

    2012-08-01

    Early-career burnout among nurses can influence health and professional development, as well as quality of care. However, the prospective occupational consequences of study burnout have not previously been investigated in a national sample using a longitudinal design. To prospectively monitor study burnout for a national sample of nursing students during their years in higher education and at follow-up 1 year post graduation. Further, to relate the possible development of study burnout to prospective health and life outcomes, as well as student and occupational outcomes. A longitudinal cohort of Swedish nursing students (within the population-based LANE (Longitudinal Analysis of Nursing Education/Entry) study) from all sites of education in Sweden was surveyed annually. Data were collected at four points in time over 4 years: three times during higher education and 1 year post graduation. : A longitudinal sample of 1702 respondents was prospectively followed from late autumn 2002 to spring 2006. Mean level changes of study burnout (as measured by the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, i.e. the Exhaustion and Disengagement subscales) across time, as well as prospective effects of baseline study burnout and changes in study burnout levels, were estimated using Latent Growth Curve Modeling. An increase in study burnout (from 30% to 41%) across 3 years in higher education was found, and levels of both Exhaustion and Disengagement increased significantly across the years in education (pdevelopment of study burnout, predicted lower levels of in-class learner engagement and occupational preparedness in the final year. At follow-up 1 year post graduation, earlier development of study burnout was related to lower mastery of occupational tasks, less research utilization in everyday clinical practice and higher turnover intentions. The results suggest that study burnout may have interfered with learning and psychological well-being. Aspects related to work skills and intention to

  15. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul S. Larsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

  16. Comparison of stellar population model predictions using optical and infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, C.; McDermid, R. M.; Kuntschner, H.; Maraston, C.; Conroy, C.

    2018-02-01

    We present Gemini/GNIRS cross-dispersed near-infrared spectra of 12 nearby early-type galaxies, with the aim of testing commonly used stellar population synthesis models. We select a subset of galaxies from the ATLAS3D sample which span a wide range of ages (single stellar population equivalent ages of 1-15 Gyr) at approximately solar metallicity. We derive star formation histories using four different stellar population synthesis models, namely those of Bruzual & Charlot, Conroy, Gunn & White, Maraston & Strömbäck and Vazdekis et al. We compare star formation histories derived from near-infrared spectra with those derived from optical spectra using the same models. We find that while all models agree in the optical, the derived star formation histories vary dramatically from model to model in the near-infrared. We find that this variation is largely driven by the choice of stellar spectral library, such that models including high-quality spectral libraries provide the best fits to the data, and are the most self-consistent when comparing optically derived properties with near-infrared ones. We also find the impact of age variation in the near-infrared to be subtle, and largely encoded in the shape of the continuum, meaning that the common approach of removing continuum information with a high-order polynomial greatly reduces our ability to constrain ages in the near-infrared.

  17. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  18. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bocchiola

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060 hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2, nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated.

    The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of

  19. Evaluation of different biomarkers to predict individual radiosensitivity in an inter-laboratory comparison--lessons for future studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burkhard Greve

    Full Text Available Radiotherapy is a powerful cure for several types of solid tumours, but its application is often limited because of severe side effects in individual patients. With the aim to find biomarkers capable of predicting normal tissue side reactions we analysed the radiation responses of cells from individual head and neck tumour and breast cancer patients of different clinical radiosensitivity in a multicentric study. Multiple parameters of cellular radiosensitivity were analysed in coded samples of peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs and derived lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs from 15 clinical radio-hypersensitive tumour patients and compared to age- and sex-matched non-radiosensitive patient controls and 15 lymphoblastoid cell lines from age- and sex- matched healthy controls of the KORA study. Experimental parameters included ionizing radiation (IR-induced cell death (AnnexinV, induction and repair of DNA strand breaks (Comet assay, induction of yH2AX foci (as a result of DNA double strand breaks, and whole genome expression analyses. Considerable inter-individual differences in IR-induced DNA strand breaks and their repair and/or cell death could be detected in primary and immortalised cells with the applied assays. The group of clinically radiosensitive patients was not unequivocally distinguishable from normal responding patients nor were individual overreacting patients in the test system unambiguously identified by two different laboratories. Thus, the in vitro test systems investigated here seem not to be appropriate for a general prediction of clinical reactions during or after radiotherapy due to the experimental variability compared to the small effect of radiation sensitivity. Genome-wide expression analysis however revealed a set of 67 marker genes which were differentially induced 6 h after in vitro-irradiation in lymphocytes from radio-hypersensitive and non-radiosensitive patients. These results warrant future validation in larger

  20. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  1. Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: extending the predictions to different years and different sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reggente, Matteo; Dillner, Ann M.; Takahama, Satoshi

    2016-02-01

    Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) are major components of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), which has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, climate change, and reduced visibility. Typically OC and EC concentrations are measured using thermal-optical methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) from samples collected on quartz filters. In this work, we estimate TOR OC and EC using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE Teflon) filters using partial least square regression (PLSR) calibrated to TOR OC and EC measurements for a wide range of samples. The proposed method can be integrated with analysis of routinely collected PTFE filter samples that, in addition to OC and EC concentrations, can concurrently provide information regarding the functional group composition of the organic aerosol. We have used the FT-IR absorbance spectra and TOR OC and EC concentrations collected in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network (USA). We used 526 samples collected in 2011 at seven sites to calibrate the models, and more than 2000 samples collected in 2013 at 17 sites to test the models. Samples from six sites are present both in the calibration and test sets. The calibrations produce accurate predictions both for samples collected at the same six sites present in the calibration set (R2 = 0.97 and R2 = 0.95 for OC and EC respectively), and for samples from 9 of the 11 sites not included in the calibration set (R2 = 0.96 and R2 = 0.91 for OC and EC respectively). Samples collected at the other two sites require a different calibration model to achieve accurate predictions. We also propose a method to anticipate the prediction error; we calculate the squared Mahalanobis distance in the feature space (scores determined by PLSR) between new spectra and spectra in the calibration set. The squared Mahalanobis distance provides a crude method for assessing the

  2. Multilevel microvibration test for performance predictions of a space optical load platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shiqi; Zhang, Heng; Liu, Shiping; Wang, Yue

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a framework for the multilevel microvibration analysis and test of a space optical load platform. The test framework is conducted on three levels, including instrument, subsystem, and system level. Disturbance source experimental investigations are performed to evaluate the vibration amplitude and study vibration mechanism. Transfer characteristics of space camera are validated by a subsystem test, which allows the calculation of transfer functions from various disturbance sources to optical performance outputs. In order to identify the influence of the source on the spacecraft performance, a system level microvibration measurement test has been performed on the ground. From the time domain analysis and spectrum analysis of multilevel microvibration tests, we concluded that the disturbance source has a significant effect on its installation position. After transmitted through mechanical links, the residual vibration reduces to a background noise level. In addition, the angular microvibration of the platform jitter is mainly concentrated in the rotation of y-axes. This work is applied to a real practical application involving the high resolution satellite camera system.

  3. Prediction of meat spectral patterns based on optical properties and concentrations of the major constituents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElMasry, Gamal; Nakauchi, Shigeki

    2016-03-01

    A simulation method for approximating spectral signatures of minced meat samples was developed depending on concentrations and optical properties of the major chemical constituents. Minced beef samples of different compositions scanned on a near-infrared spectroscopy and on a hyperspectral imaging system were examined. Chemical composition determined heuristically and optical properties collected from authenticated references were simulated to approximate samples' spectral signatures. In short-wave infrared range, the resulting spectrum equals the sum of the absorption of three individual absorbers, that is, water, protein, and fat. By assuming homogeneous distributions of the main chromophores in the mince samples, the obtained absorption spectra are found to be a linear combination of the absorption spectra of the major chromophores present in the sample. Results revealed that developed models were good enough to derive spectral signatures of minced meat samples with a reasonable level of robustness of a high agreement index value more than 0.90 and ratio of performance to deviation more than 1.4.

  4. Optical Properties of Three Beach Waters: Implications for Predictive Modeling of Enterococci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunlight plays an important role in the inactivation of fecal indicator bacteria in recreational waters. Solar radiation can explain temporal trends in bacterial counts and is commonly used as an explanatory variable in predictive models. Broadband surface radiation provides a ba...

  5. A simple formula to predict the influence of the near-field in the optical control of confined electron systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeuchi, Takashi; Ohnuki, Shinichiro; Sako, Tokuei

    2017-01-01

    A simple formula for predicting the ratio between the field strengths of the incident laser pulse and of the near-field created in the vicinity of the target electron system has been proposed, in the context of optically controlling confined electron systems. The formula is easy to use and does not involve elaborate computation, thus enabling one to judge whether to use the time-consuming Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation or to stay with the conventional time-dependent Schrödinger equation approach that takes no near-field effect into account. As a demonstration we have examined in detail the system of an electron confined in a quasi-one-dimensional nanoscale potential well. The highly accurate Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation has been employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed formula in predicting the significance of the near-field effect. The near-field effect has shown to depend sensitively on the characteristics of the laser pulse and of the geometry of the confined electron system, which can be predicted well by the proposed formula. (paper)

  6. Predictability of current and future multi-river discharges: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Jun

    2007-12-01

    Determining river discharge is of critical importance to many societies as they struggle with fresh water supply and risk of flooding. In Bangladesh, floods occur almost every year but with sufficient irregularity to have adverse social and economical consequences. Important goals are to predict the discharge to be used for the optimization of agricultural practices, disaster mitigation and water resource management. The aim of this study is to determine the predictability of river discharge in a number of major rivers on time scale varying from weeks to a century. We investigated predictability considering relationship between SST and discharge. Next, we consider IPCC model projections of river discharge while the models are statistically adjusted against observed discharges. In this study, we consider five rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Blue Nile, and the Murray-Darling Rivers. On seasonal time scales, statistically significant correlations are found between mean monthly equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer Ganges discharge with lead times of 2-3 months due to oscillations of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In addition, there are strong correlations in the southwest and northeast Pacific. These, too, appear to be tied to the ENSO cycle. The Brahmaputra discharge, on the other hand, shows somewhat weaker relationships with tropical SST. Strong lagged correlations relationships are found with SST in the Bay of Bengal but these are the result of very warm SSTs and exceptional Brahmaputra discharge during the summer of 1998. When this year is removed from the time series, relationships weaken everywhere except in the northwestern Pacific for the June discharge and in areas of the central Pacific straddling the equator for the July discharge. The relationships are relative strong, but they are persistent from month to month and suggest that two different and sequential factors influence Brahmaputra

  7. First-principles prediction of optical second-order harmonic generation in the endohedral N-C{sub 60} compound

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, G. P.; Strubbe, David A.; Louie, Steven G.; George, Thomas F. [Department of Physics, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana 47809 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States) and Materials Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Office of the Chancellor and Center for Nanoscience, University of Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63121 (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Non-linear-optical properties in C{sub 60} have attracted enormous attention for over two decades. The endohedral complex N-C{sub 60}, with its remarkable thermal stability and spin-quartet ground state, is a candidate for future room-temperature quantum computing, but there has been no investigation of its non-linear-optical properties. Here, a first-principles calculation shows that N-C{sub 60} is a promising material for nanoscale and ultrafast modulations. Excitation by a pump laser pulse of the nitrogen-atom vibration inside the C{sub 60} cage transiently breaks inversion symmetry and can enable second-harmonic generation (SHG) from a probe pulse. Unlike the SHG observed in C{sub 60} thin films, this harmonic signal is switched on and off periodically every 345 fs. For an fcc crystal of N-C{sub 60}, the second-order susceptibility {chi}{sup (2)} is on the order of 10{sup -8} esu, similar to commercially used nonlinear materials.

  8. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  9. Developing a trend prediction model of subsurface damage for fixed-abrasive grinding of optics by cup wheels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhichao; Cheng, Haobo

    2016-11-10

    Fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels plays an important role in the production of precision optics. During cup wheel grinding, we strive for a large removal rate while maintaining fine integrity on the surface and subsurface layers (academically recognized as surface roughness and subsurface damage, respectively). This study develops a theoretical model used to predict the trend of subsurface damage of optics (with respect to various grinding parameters) in fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels. It is derived from the maximum undeformed chip thickness model, and it successfully correlates the pivotal parameters of cup wheel grinding with the subsurface damage depth. The efficiency of this model is then demonstrated by a set of experiments performed on a cup wheel grinding machine. In these experiments, the characteristics of subsurface damage are inspected by a wedge-polishing plus microscopic inspection method, revealing that the subsurface damage induced in cup wheel grinding is composed of craterlike morphologies and slender cracks, with depth ranging from ∼6.2 to ∼13.2  μm under the specified grinding parameters. With the help of the proposed model, an optimized grinding strategy is suggested for realizing fine subsurface integrity as well as high removal rate, which can alleviate the workload of subsequent lapping and polishing.

  10. Advances in Retinal Optical Imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxiu Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Retinal imaging has undergone a revolution in the past 50 years to allow for better understanding of the eye in health and disease. Significant improvements have occurred both in hardware such as lasers and optics in addition to software image analysis. Optical imaging modalities include optical coherence tomography (OCT, OCT angiography (OCTA, photoacoustic microscopy (PAM, scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (SLO, adaptive optics (AO, fundus autofluorescence (FAF, and molecular imaging (MI. These imaging modalities have enabled improved visualization of retinal pathophysiology and have had a substantial impact on basic and translational medical research. These improvements in technology have translated into early disease detection, more accurate diagnosis, and improved management of numerous chorioretinal diseases. This article summarizes recent advances and applications of retinal optical imaging techniques, discusses current clinical challenges, and predicts future directions in retinal optical imaging.

  11. A Brief Survey of Patients' First Impression after CPAP Titration Predicts Future CPAP Adherence: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balachandran, Jay S.; Yu, Xiaohong; Wroblewski, Kristen; Mokhlesi, Babak

    2013-01-01

    patient populations is warranted. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 207. Citation: Balachandran JS; Yu X; Wroblewski K; Mokhlesi B. A brief survey of patients' first impression after CPAP titration predicts future CPAP adherence: a pilot study. J Clin Sleep Med 2013;9(3):199-205. PMID:23493772

  12. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  13. Optical metrics of the extracellular matrix predict compositional and mechanical changes after myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Kyle P.; Sullivan, Kelly E.; Liu, Zhiyi; Ballard, Zachary; Siokatas, Christos; Georgakoudi, Irene; Black, Lauren D.

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the organization and mechanical function of the extracellular matrix (ECM) is critical for the development of therapeutic strategies that regulate wound healing following disease or injury. However, these relationships are challenging to elucidate during remodeling following myocardial infarction (MI) due to rapid changes in cellularity and an inability to characterize both ECM microstructure and function non-destructively. In this study, we overcome those challenges through whole organ decellularization and non-linear optical microscopy to directly relate the microstructure and mechanical properties of myocardial ECM. We non-destructively quantify collagen organization, content, and cross-linking within decellularized healthy and infarcted myocardium using second harmonic generation (SHG) and two photon excited autofluorescence. Tensile mechanical testing and compositional analysis reveal that the cumulative SHG intensity within each image volume and the average collagen autofluorescence are significantly correlated with collagen content and elastic modulus of the ECM, respectively. Compared to healthy ECM, infarcted tissues demonstrate a significant increase in collagen content and fiber alignment, and a decrease in cross-linking and elastic modulus. These findings indicate that cross-linking plays a key role in stiffness at the collagen fiber level following infarction, and highlight how this non-destructive approach to assessing remodeling can be used to understand ECM structure-function relationships.

  14. A Novel Noise Free Transmission Technique for Designing 100Gb/s Future Generation Optical Communication System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Das, Bhagwan; Abdullah, M.F.L.; Pandey, Bishwajeet

    2017-01-01

    Differential Phase Shift Keying (DPSK) techniques are widely used in designing the high-speed communication systems. However, these techniques still need improvement for long haul communication system design. In this paper, high-speed optical signal transmission and reception system is achieved f...

  15. Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

    OpenAIRE

    Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

    2017-01-01

    1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

  16. Predicted optical performance of the GM/CA@APS micro-focus beamline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischetti, Robert F.; Yoder, Derek; Xu, Shenglan; Makarov, Oleg; Ogata, Craig; Smith, Janet L.

    2014-01-01

    GM/CA at the APS has developed microcrystallography capabilities for structural biology applications. The robust, quad, mini-beam collimators, which enable users to rapidly select between a 5, 10 or 20 micron diameter beam or a scatter guard for the full focused beam, are coupled with several powerful automated software tools that are built into the beamline control system JBluIce-EPICS. Recent successes at beamlines around the world in solving structures from microcrystals (2 – 10 microns) have led to increased demand for high-intensity micro-focus beams. We have designed a new micro-focus endstation to increase the intensity in mini- and micro-beams at GM/CA by one to two orders of magnitude to meet this growing demand. The new optical design is based on the well-established approach of using two-stage demagnification. The existing bimorph mirrors, arranged in a Kirkpatrick-Baez geometry, focus the beam onto slits located upstream of the sample whereby the slit aperture defines a secondary source, that is reimaged with a second pair of mirrors. This design incorporates two focal modes: a mini-beam mode where the beam is focused to 20-micron diameter and a micro-beam mode where it is focused to 5-microns. The size of the secondary source aperture can be varied rapidly (seconds) to adjust the beam size at the sample position in two ranges 20 – 3 micron and 5 – 1 micron. The second set of mirrors will each have two super polished ellipses allowing quick (minutes) interchange between modes. PMID:25383086

  17. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  18. ASAS Centennial Paper: Impact of animal science research on United States goat production and predictions for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlu, T; Dawson, L J; Gipson, T A; Hart, S P; Merkel, R C; Puchala, R; Wang, Z; Zeng, S; Goetsch, A L

    2009-01-01

    Goat research in the United States has increased but at a rate less than that in production. Research on goat meat includes nutritional quality, packaging, color, sensory characteristics, and preslaughter management. Goat skins have value for leather, but quality of goat leather has not been extensively studied. Research in the production, quality, antibiotic residues, and sensory characteristics of goat milk and its products has aided development of the US dairy goat industry. Limited progress has been made in genetic improvement of milk or meat production. There is need to explore applications of genomics and proteomics and improve consistency in texture and functionality of goat cheeses. New goat meat and milk products are needed to increase demand and meet the diverse tastes of the American public. Despite research progress in control of mohair and cashmere growth, erratic prices and sale of raw materials have contributed to further declines in US production. Innovative and cooperative ventures are needed for profit sharing up to the consumer level. Internal parasites pose the greatest challenge to goat production in humid areas largely because of anthelmintic resistance. Study of alternative controls is required, including immunity enhancement via nutrition, vaccination, pasture management such as co-grazing with cattle, and genetic resistance. Similarly, the importance of health management is increasing related in part to a lack of effective vaccines for many diseases. Nutrition research should address requirements for vitamins and minerals, efficiencies of protein utilization, adjusting energy requirements for nutritional plane, acclimatization, and grazing conditions, feed intake prediction, and management practices for rapid-growth production systems. Moreover, efficient technology transfer methods are needed to disseminate current knowledge and that gained in future research.

  19. [Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

    To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  20. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  1. Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Isaac D.

    2008-01-01

    Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

  2. Peering into the Brain to Predict Behavior: Peer-Reported, but not Self-Reported, Conscientiousness Links Threat-Related Amygdala Activity to Future Problem Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R.; Knodt, Annchen R.; Radtke, Spenser R.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

    2016-01-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. PMID:27717769

  3. Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2017-02-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Diffuse optical measurements of head and neck tumor hemodynamics for early prediction of radiation therapy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Lixin; Kudrimoti, Mahesh; Irwin, Daniel; Chen, Li; Shang, Yu; Li, Xingzhe; Stevens, Scott D.; Shelton, Brent J.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2016-03-01

    Radiation therapy is a principal modality for head and neck cancers and its efficacy depends on tumor hemodynamics. Our laboratory developed a hybrid diffuse optical instrument allowing for simultaneous measurements of tumor blood flow and oxygenation. In this study, the clinically involved cervical lymph node was monitored by the hybrid instrument once a week over the treatment period of seven weeks. Based on treatment outcomes within one year, patients were classified into a complete response group (CR) and an incomplete response group (IR) with remote metastasis and/or local recurrence. A linear mixed models was used to compare tumor hemodynamic responses to the treatment between the two groups. Interestingly, we found that human papilloma virus (HPV-16) status largely affected tumor hemodynamic responses. For HPV-16 negative tumors, significant differences in blood flow index (BFI, p = 0.007) and reduced scattering coefficient (μs', p = 0.0005) were observed between the two groups; IR tumors exhibited higher μs' values and a continuous increase in BFI over the treatment period. For HPV-16 positive tumors, oxygenated hemoglobin concentration ([HbO2]) and blood oxygen saturation (StO2) were significant different (p = 0.003 and 0.01, respectively); IR group showed lower [HbO2] and StO2. Our results imply HPV-16 negative tumors with higher density of vasculature (μs') and higher blood flow show poor responses to radiotherapy and HPV-16 positive tumors with lower tissue oxygenation level (lower StO2 and [HbO2]) exhibit poor treatment outcomes. Our diffuse optical measurements show the great potential for early prediction of radiotherapy in head and neck cancers.

  5. Prediction study of structural, electronic and optical properties of XIn2S4 (X = Hg, Zn) thiospinels under pressure effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousaf, Masood; Inam, F.; Khenata, R.; Murtaza, G.; Isa, A.R.M.; Saeed, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Pressure effect is employed for the first time on HgIn 2 S 4 and ZnIn 2 S 4 thiospinels. • A number of physical parameters are calculated and equations are developed. • FP-LAPW+lo method is coupled with different approximations (GGA+U and mBJ-GGA). • Relationships between pressure and parameters are in accordance with the theory. • Computed band gap values have good agreement with the experimental values. -- Abstract: First principle calculations are carried out to study the effect of pressure (up to 30 GPa) on physical properties of HgIn 2 S 4 and ZnIn 2 S 4 thiospinels. A number of structural, electronic and optical parameters are calculated, and equations are developed for their prediction at different pressures. Highly effective all electron FP-LAPW+lo method coupled with two different approximations (GGA+U and mBJ-GGA) provides very accurate results. All relationships developed between pressure and structural parameters are in full accordance with the established theory thus validating the approach used in the current study. Computed In–S bond length for ZnIn 2 S 4 matches closely with the experimental value. The band gap values of 0.920 eV (1.851 eV) and 1.68 eV (2.733 eV) are obtained with GGA+U (mBJ-GGA) at 0 GPa for HgIn 2 S 4 and ZnIn 2 S 4 , respectively. Additionally, we have calculated the optical properties, namely, the complex dielectric function, refractive index, extinction coefficient, reflectivity, optical conductivity, absorption coefficient and electron energy loss function under pressure effect for radiation up to 30.0 eV. The first critical point also known as optical’s absorption edge calculated with GGA+U (mBJ-GGA) appears at 0.939 eV (1.891 eV) and 1.701 eV (2.981 eV) for HgIn 2 S 4 and ZnIn 2 S 4 , respectively. Variation of the absorption spectrum indicates the prospective use of both compounds for device applications, which can be operated on a wide range of the energy scale. The entire work gives useful

  6. Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout ( Salmo trutta )

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, C.; Aarestrup, Kim; Norum, U.

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between......(-1)), with an average of 91 % of the predictions being correct. The present study shows that a non-lethal premigratory biochemical measurement can successfully select individual brown trout with high probability of migration...... was obtained. The ability of this regression model from the tributaries to predict future migratory behaviour in an independent group of trout caught in early April in the mainstream was evaluated. A threshold probability of migration was used to predict the behaviour of the mainstream individuals as either...

  7. Spring floods prediction with the use of optical satellite data in Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A.; Royer, A.; Turcotte, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ) operates a distributed hydrological model, which integrates a snow model, for the management of dams in the south of Québec. It appears that the estimation of the water quantity of snowmelt in spring remains a variable with a large uncertainty and induces generally to an important error in stream flow simulation. Therefore, the National snow and ice center (NSIDC) produces, from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data, continuous and homogeneous spatial snow cover (snow/swow-free) data on the whole territory, but with a cloud contamination. This research aims to improve the prediction of spring floods and the estimation of the rate of discharge by integrating snow cover data in the CEHQ's snow model. The study is done on two watersheds: du Nord river watershed (45,8°N) and Aux Écorces river watershed (47,9°N). The snow model used in the study (SPH-AV) is an implementation developed by the CEHQ of the snowmelt model of HYDROLTEL in is hydrological forecast system to simulate the melted water. The melted water estimated is then used as input in the empirical hydrological model MOHYSE to simulate stream flow. MODIS data are considered valid only when the cloud cover on each pixel of the watersheds is less then 30%. A pixel by pixel correction is applied to the snow pack when there is a difference between satellite snow cover and modeled snow cover. In the case of model shows to much snow, a factor is applied on temperatures by iterative process (starting from the last valid MODIS data) to melt the snow. In the opposite case, the snow quantity added to the last valid MODIS data is found by iterative process so that the pixel's snow water equivalent is equal to the nonzero neighbor minimum value. The study shows, through the simulations done on the two watersheds, the interest of the use of snow/snow-free product for the operational update of snow water equivalent with the objective to improve

  8. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  9. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

    2014-01-01

    This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  10. Looking into the crystal ball: future device learning using hybrid e-beam and optical lithography (Keynote Paper)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, S. E.; McNab, S. J.; Sekaric, L.; Babich, I.; Patel, J.; Bucchignano, J.; Rooks, M.; Fried, D. M.; Topol, A. W.; Brancaccio, J. R.; Yu, R.; Hergenrother, J. M.; Doyle, J. P.; Nunes, R.; Viswanathan, R. G.; Purushothaman, S.; Rothwell, M. B.

    2005-05-01

    Semiconductor process development teams are faced with increasing process and integration complexity while the time between lithographic capability and volume production has remained more or less constant over the last decade. Lithography tools have often gated the volume checkpoint of a new device node on the ITRS roadmap. The processes have to be redeveloped after the tooling capability for the new groundrule is obtained since straight scaling is no longer sufficient. In certain cases the time window that the process development teams have is actually decreasing. In the extreme, some forecasts are showing that by the time the 45nm technology node is scheduled for volume production, the tooling vendors will just begin shipping the tools required for this technology node. To address this time pressure, IBM has implemented a hybrid-lithography strategy that marries the advantages of optical lithography (high throughput) with electron beam direct write lithography (high resolution and alignment capability). This hybrid-lithography scheme allows for the timely development of semiconductor processes for the 32nm node, and beyond. In this paper we will describe how hybrid lithography has enabled early process integration and device learning and how IBM applied e-beam & optical hybrid lithography to create the world's smallest working SRAM cell.

  11. Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Lakesh K; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W

    2015-11-02

    Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in "saturation" of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms.

  12. Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Lakesh K.; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in “saturation” of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms. PMID:26540057

  13. The use of postoperative slit-lamp optical coherence tomography to predict primary failure in descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Carolyn Y; Ritterband, David C; Palmiero, Pat-Michael; Seedor, John A; Papachristou, George; Harizman, Noga; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Ritch, Robert

    2009-05-01

    To determine if central donor lenticle thickness as measured by slit-lamp optical coherence tomography (SL OCT; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) is predictive of primary donor failure in patients undergoing Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK). Retrospective cross-sectional study. Eighty-four patients who underwent DSAEK surgery by 2 surgeons (D.C.R. and J.A.S.) were enrolled. At each postoperative visit (postoperative day 1, week 1, month 1, and month 2), an SL OCT scan was obtained. Statistical differences in SL OCT measurements of successful and failed DSAEK procedures were measured using the Student t test. A successful DSAEK surgery was defined as having an anatomically attached, clear recipient corneal stroma and donor lenticle compatible with good vision 2 months after surgery. A failed DSAEK surgery was defined as an attached donor lenticle with SL evidence of corneal edema and thickening visible at 2 months or more. Ninety-three eyes of 84 consecutive patients who underwent DSAEK surgery also underwent postoperative SL OCT. After 2 months of follow-up, 82 (88%) procedures were successful and 11 (12%) procedures were failures. The average donor lenticle thickness in successful DSAEK eyes was 314 +/- 128 microm on postoperative day 1 as compared with failed DSAEK eyes, which averaged 532 +/- 259 microm (P = .0013). This was independent regardless of whether the lenticle was attached on the first postoperative visit. Seventy-nine (98%) successful DSAEK eyes had a lenticle thickness of or = 350 microm at the 1-week postoperative visit. Statistically significant differences in SL OCT thickness measurements were seen between successful and failed DSAEK cases at all examinations after postoperative week 1. Corneal thickness measurements made with SL OCT are an important predictor of DSAEK failure in both attached and detached lenticles within the first week of surgery. DSAEK lenticle thickness of 350 microm or less at 1 week

  14. Standard-Fractionated Radiotherapy for Optic Nerve Sheath Meningioma: Visual Outcome Is Predicted by Mean Eye Dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abouaf, Lucie [Neuro-Ophthalmology Unit, Pierre-Wertheimer Hospital, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Girard, Nicolas [Radiotherapy-Oncology Department, Lyon Sud Hospital, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Claude Bernard University, Lyon (France); Lefort, Thibaud [Neuro-Radiology Department, Pierre-Wertheimer Hospital, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); D' hombres, Anne [Claude Bernard University, Lyon (France); Tilikete, Caroline; Vighetto, Alain [Neuro-Ophthalmology Unit, Pierre-Wertheimer Hospital, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Claude Bernard University, Lyon (France); Mornex, Francoise, E-mail: francoise.mornex@chu-lyon.fr [Claude Bernard University, Lyon (France)

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy has shown its efficacy in controlling optic nerve sheath meningiomas (ONSM) tumor growth while allowing visual acuity to improve or stabilize. However, radiation-induced toxicity may ultimately jeopardize the functional benefit. The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors of poor visual outcome in patients receiving radiotherapy for ONSM. Methods and Materials: We conducted an extensive analysis of 10 patients with ONSM with regard to clinical, radiologic, and dosimetric aspects. All patients were treated with conformal radiotherapy and subsequently underwent biannual neuroophthalmologic and imaging assessments. Pretreatment and posttreatment values of visual acuity and visual field were compared with Wilcoxon's signed rank test. Results: Visual acuity values significantly improved after radiotherapy. After a median follow-up time of 51 months, 6 patients had improved visual acuity, 4 patients had improved visual field, 1 patient was in stable condition, and 1 patient had deteriorated visual acuity and visual field. Tumor control rate was 100% at magnetic resonance imaging assessment. Visual acuity deterioration after radiotherapy was related to radiation-induced retinopathy in 2 patients and radiation-induced mature cataract in 1 patient. Study of radiotherapy parameters showed that the mean eye dose was significantly higher in those 3 patients who had deteriorated vision. Conclusions: Our study confirms that radiotherapy is efficient in treating ONSM. Long-term visual outcome may be compromised by radiation-induced side effects. Mean eye dose has to be considered as a limiting constraint in treatment planning.

  15. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  16. Hot slumping glass technology for the grazing incidence optics of future missions with particular reference to IXO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghigo, M.; Basso, S.; Bavdaz, M.; Conconi, P.; Citterio, O.; Civitani, M.; Friedrich, P.; Gallieni, D.; Guldimann, B.; Martelli, F.; Negri, R.; Pagano, G.; Pareschi, G.; Parodi, G.; Proserpio, L.; Salmaso, B.; Scaglione, F.; Spiga, D.; Tagliaferri, G.; Terzi, L.; Tintori, M.; Vongehr, M.; Wille, E.; Winter, A.; Zambra, A.

    2010-07-01

    The mirrors of the International X-ray Observatory (IXO) consist of a large number of high quality segments delivering a spatial resolution better than 5 arcsec. A study concerning the slumping of thin glass foils for the IXO mirrors is under development in Europe, funded by ESA and led by the Brera Observatory. We are investigating two approaches, the "Direct" and "Indirect" slumping technologies, being respectively based on the use of convex and concave moulds. In the first case during the thermal cycle the optical surface of the glass is in direct contact with the mould surface, while in the second case it is the rear side of the foil which touches the master. Both approaches present pros and cons and aim of this study is also to make an assessment of both processes and to perform a trade-off between the two. The thin plates are made of D263glass produced by Schott. Each plate is 0.4 mm thick, with a reflecting area of 200 mm x 200 mm; the mould are made of Fused Silica. After the thermal cycle the slumped MPs are characterized to define their optical quality and microroughness. The adopted integration process foresees the bonding of the slumped foils to a rigid backplane by means of reinforcing ribs. During the bonding process the plates are constrained to stay in close contact to the surface of the master (i.e. the same mould used for the hot slumping process) by the application of a vacuum pump suction. In this way spring-back deformations and low frequency errors still present on the foil profile after slumping can be corrected. In this paper we present the preliminary results concerning achieved during the first part of the project.

  17. Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

  18. New organic materials for optics: optical storage and nonlinear optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, F.

    1996-01-01

    New organic materials have received considerable attention recently, due to their easy preparation and different variety. The most application fields in optics are optical storage and nonlinear optics. In optical storage the organic dyes have been used for example, in record able and erasable compact disks (CD-R, CD-E) nonlinear optical effects, such as nonlinear optical absorption, second and third order optical absorption, second and third order optical nonlinearities, can be applied for making optical limiters, optical modulators, as well as laser second and third harmonic generations. Due to high value of optical absorption and optical nonlinearity organic materials are always used as thin films in optical integration. In this paper the new experimental results have been presented, and future development has been also discussed. (author)

  19. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  20. Age of first use of energy beverages predicts future maximal consumption among naval pilot and flight officer candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Sather

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: A lower age of first energy drink use suggests higher risk of single-occasion heavy episodic consumption in this military population. Researchers should further explore the relationship of early onset energy drink consumption and potential future health risks.

  1. Wearable Optical Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Ballard, Zachary S.

    2017-07-12

    The market for wearable sensors is predicted to grow to $5.5 billion by 2025, impacting global health in unprecedented ways. Optics and photonics will play a key role in the future of these wearable technologies, enabling highly sensitive measurements of otherwise invisible information and parameters about our health and surrounding environment. Through the implementation of optical wearable technologies, such as heart rate, blood pressure, and glucose monitors, among others, individuals are becoming more empowered to generate a wealth of rich, multifaceted physiological and environmental data, making personalized medicine a reality. Furthermore, these technologies can also be implemented in hospitals, clinics, point-of-care offices, assisted living facilities or even in patients’ homes for real-time, remote patient monitoring, creating more expeditious as well as resource-efficient systems. Several key optical technologies make such sensors possible, including e.g., optical fiber textiles, colorimetric, plasmonic, and fluorometric sensors, as well as Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) and Organic Photo-Diode (OPD) technologies. These emerging technologies and platforms show great promise as basic sensing elements in future wearable devices and will be reviewed in this chapter along-side currently existing fully integrated wearable optical sensors.

  2. Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

  3. Demonstration of a 100-mJ OPO/OPA for future lidar applications and laser-induced damage threshold testing of optical components for MERLIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsen, Florian; Livrozet, Marie; Strotkamp, Michael; Wüppen, Jochen; Jungbluth, Bernd; Kasemann, Raphael; Löhring, Jens; Meissner, Ansgar; Meyer, Rudolf; Hoffmann, Hans-Dieter; Poprawe, Reinhart

    2018-02-01

    In the field of atmospheric research, lidar is a powerful technology that can measure gas or aerosol concentrations, wind speed, or temperature profiles remotely. To conduct such measurements globally, spaceborne systems are advantageous. Pulse energies in the 100-mJ range are required to achieve highly accurate, longitudinal resolved measurements. Measuring concentrations of specific gases, such as CH4 or CO2, requires output wavelengths in the IR-B, which can be addressed by optical-parametric frequency conversion. An OPO/OPA frequency conversion setup was designed and built as a demonstration module to address the 1.6-μm range. The pump laser is an Nd:YAG-MOPA system, consisting of a stable oscillator and two subsequent Innoslab-based amplifier stages that deliver up to 500 mJ of output pulse energy at 100 Hz repetition frequency. The OPO is inherited from the OPO design for the CH4 lidar instrument on the French-German climate satellite methane remote-sensing lidar mission (MERLIN). To address the 100-mJ regime, the OPO output beam is amplified in a subsequent multistage OPA. With potassium titanyl phosphate as nonlinear medium, the OPO/OPA delivered more than 100 mJ of output energy at 1645 nm from 450 mJ of the pump energy and a pump pulse duration of 30 ns. This corresponds to a quantum conversion efficiency of about 25%. In addition to demonstrating optical performance for future lidar systems, this laser will be part of a laser-induced damage thresholds test facility, which will be used to qualify optical components especially for the MERLIN.

  4. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  5. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  6. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  7. Prediction of Hourly Particulate Matter Concentrations in Chiangmai, Thailand Using MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth and Ground-Based Meteorological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thongchai Kanabkaew

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Various extreme events recorded over the world have been recognized as scientific-based evidence from possible climate change and variability. The incidence of increasing forest fires and intensive agricultural field burning in Chiangmai and Northern Thailand due to favor conditions may also due to a likely increase of droughts caused by the changing climate. Smog from biomass burning, particularly particulate matter (PM seriously affects health and the environment. Lack and sparse of ground monitors may cause unreliability for warning information. Satellite remote sensing is now a promising technology for air quality prediction at ground level. This study was to investigate the statistical model for predicting PM concentration using satellite data. Aerosol optical depth (AOD data were gathered from MODIS-Terra platform while hourly PM2.5 and PM10 data were collected from the Pollution Control Department. The relationship between AOD and hourly PM over Chiangmai was addressed by Model I-Simple linear regression and Model II-Multiple linear regression with ground-based meteorological data correction. The data used for the statistical analyses were from smog period in 2012 (January-April. Results revealed that AOD and hourly PM in Model I were positively correlated with the coefficient of determination (R2 of 0.22 and 0.21, respectively for PM2.5 and PM10. The relationship between AOD and hourly PM was improved significantly when correcting with relative humidity and temperature data. The model II gave R2 of 0.77 and 0.71, respectively for PM2.5 and PM10. To investigate the validity of model, the regression equation obtained from Model II was then applied with smog data over Chiangmai in March 2007. The model performed reasonably with R2 of 0.74. The model applications would provide supplementary data to other areas with similar conditions and without air quality monitoring stations, and reduce false warning the level of air pollution associated

  8. Factors predicting optic nerve axonal degeneration after methanol-induced acute optic neuropathy: a 2-year prospective study in 54 patients

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zakharov, S.; Nurieva, O.; Kotíková, K.; Urban, P.; Navrátil, Tomáš; Pelclová, D.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 147, č. 1 (2016), s. 251-261 ISSN 0026-9247 Institutional support: RVO:61388955 Keywords : methanol optic neuropathy * visual evoked potentials * axonal degeneration Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2016

  9. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  10. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  11. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  12. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  13. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  14. Lower hybrid current drive: an overview of simulation models, benchmarking with experiment, and predictions for future devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonoli, P.T.; Barbato, E.; Imbeaux, F.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the status of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulation and modeling. We first discuss modules used for wave propagation, absorption, and current drive with particular emphasis placed on comparing exact numerical solutions of the Fokker Planck equation in 2-dimension with solution methods that employ 1-dimensional and adjoint approaches. We also survey model predictions for LHCD in past and present experiments showing detailed comparisons between simulated and observed current drive efficiencies and hard X-ray profiles. Finally we discuss several model predictions for lower hybrid current profile control in proposed next step reactor options. (authors)

  15. Current and future perspectives on the development, evaluation and application of in silico approaches for predicting toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safety-related problems continue to be one of the major reasons of attrition in drug development. Non-testing approaches to predict toxicity could form part of the solution. This review provides a perspective of current status of non-testing approaches available for the predictio...

  16. Prediction of Future High Caries Increments for Children in a School Dental Service and in Private Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imfeld, Thomas N.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A method for predicting high dental caries increments for children, based on previous research, is presented. Three clinical findings were identified as predictors: number of sound primary molars, number of discolored pits/fissures on first permanent molars, and number of buccal and lingual smooth surfaces of first permanent molars with white…

  17. Evaluation of an ARPS-based canopy flow modeling system for use in future operational smoke prediction efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. T. Kiefer; S. Zhong; W. E. Heilman; J. J. Charney; X. Bian

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to develop a canopy flow modeling system based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model are discussed. The standard version of ARPS is modified to account for the effect of drag forces on mean and turbulent flow through a vegetation canopy, via production and sink terms in the momentum and subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations....

  18. Perspective and potential of smart optical materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sang H.; Duzik, Adam J.; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Park, Yeonjoon; Kim, Jaehwan; Ko, Hyun-U.; Kim, Hyun-Chan; Yun, Sungryul; Kyung, Ki-Uk

    2017-09-01

    The increasing requirements of hyperspectral imaging optics, electro/photo-chromic materials, negative refractive index metamaterial optics, and miniaturized optical components from micro-scale to quantum-scale optics have all contributed to new features and advancements in optics technology. Development of multifunctional capable optics has pushed the boundaries of optics into new fields that require new disciplines and materials to maximize the potential benefits. The purpose of this study is to understand and show the fundamental materials and fabrication technology for field-controlled spectrally active optics (referred to as smart optics) that are essential for future industrial, scientific, military, and space applications, such as membrane optics, filters, windows for sensors and probes, telescopes, spectroscopes, cameras, light valves, light switches, and flat-panel displays. The proposed smart optics are based on the Stark and Zeeman effects in materials tailored with quantum dot arrays and thin films made from readily polarizable materials via ferroelectricity or ferromagnetism. Bound excitonic states of organic crystals are also capable of optical adaptability, tunability, and reconfigurability. To show the benefits of smart optics, this paper reviews spectral characteristics of smart optical materials and device technology. Experiments testing the quantum-confined Stark effect, arising from rare earth element doping effects in semiconductors, and applied electric field effects on spectral and refractive index are discussed. Other bulk and dopant materials were also discovered to have the same aspect of shifts in spectrum and refractive index. Other efforts focus on materials for creating field-controlled spectrally smart active optics on a selected spectral range. Surface plasmon polariton transmission of light through apertures is also discussed, along with potential applications. New breakthroughs in micro scale multiple zone plate optics as a micro

  19. Premise and Prediction – How Optic Nerve Head Biomechanics Underlies the Susceptibility and Clinical Behavior of the Aged Optic Nerve Head

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgoyne, Claude F.; Downs, J. Crawford

    2009-01-01

    We propose that age-related alterations in optic nerve head (ONH) biomechanics underlie the clinical behavior and increased susceptibility of the aged ONH to glaucomatous damage. The literature which suggests that the aged ONH is more susceptible to glaucomatous damage at all levels of intraocular pressure is reviewed. The relevant biomechanics of the aged ONH are discussed and a biomechanical explanation for why, on average, the stiffened peripapillary scleral and lamina cribrosa connective tissues of the aged eye should lead to a shallow (senile sclerotic) form of cupping is proposed. A logic for why age-related axon loss and the optic neuropathy of glaucoma in the aged eye may overlap is discussed. Finally, we argue for a need to characterize all forms of clinical cupping into prelaminar and laminar components so as to add precision to the discussion of clinical cupping which does not currently exist. Such characterization may lead to the early detection of ONH axonal and connective tissue pathology in ocular hypertension and eventually aid in the assessment of etiology in all forms of optic neuropathy including those that may be purely age-related. PMID:18552618

  20. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  1. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Kukwa; Marta Kolanowska

    2016-01-01

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of ...

  2. Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

    2014-03-01

    The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The value of a registry negative urine pregnancy test for the prediction of a future unintended pregnancy among young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottenstreich, Misgav; Grisaru-Granovsky, Sorina; Rottenstreich, Amihai

    2018-05-15

    Performance of urine pregnancy test in general adolescents' clinic reflects caregiver or woman's concern that there might be a pregnancy. We aimed to assess whether young-unmarried women in whom a negative urine pregnancy test was registered would be at increased risk of a future unintended pregnancy. The study cohort included consecutive women drafted by the Israeli military between 2013 and 2015. The risk of unintended pregnancy was compared between women with a negative urine pregnancy test (n = 2774), the study group, and those in whom urine pregnancy test was not carried out (n = 126,659), the control group. During the study period, 2147 (1.7%) women experienced an unintended pregnancy. The risk of unintended pregnancy was significantly higher in patients in whom a past pregnancy test was negative 4.3% (n = 118), as compared with the control group 1.6% (n = 2028) (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23-3.26). In multivariate analysis history of a negative pregnancy test results was an independent predictor for a future unintended pregnancy (adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52). A history of a negative pregnancy test among young conscripted women is a significant risk indicator for a future unintended pregnancy. Directed efforts should be made in this particular vulnerable group of patients.

  4. Microfocusing of the FERMI@Elettra FEL beam with a K–B active optics system: Spot size predictions by application of the WISE code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimondi, L.; Svetina, C.; Mahne, N.; Cocco, D.; Abrami, A.; De Marco, M.; Fava, C.; Gerusina, S.; Gobessi, R.; Capotondi, F.; Pedersoli, E.; Kiskinova, M.; De Ninno, G.; Zeitoun, P.; Dovillaire, G.; Lambert, G.; Boutu, W.; Merdji, H.; Gonzalez, A.I.; Gauthier, D.

    2013-01-01

    FERMI@Elettra, the first seeded EUV-SXR free electron laser (FEL) facility located at Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste has been conceived to provide very short (10–100 fs) pulses with ultrahigh peak brightness and wavelengths from 100 nm to 4 nm. A section fully dedicated to the photon transport and analysis diagnostics, named PADReS, has already been installed and commissioned. Three of the beamlines, EIS-TIMEX, DiProI and LDM, installed after the PADReS section, are in advanced commissioning state and will accept the first users in December 2012. These beam lines employ active X-ray optics in order to focus the FEL beam as well as to perform a controlled beam-shaping at focus. Starting from mirror surface metrology characterization, it is difficult to predict the focal spot shape applying only methods based on geometrical optics such as the ray tracing. Within the geometrical optics approach one cannot take into account the diffraction effect from the optics edges, i.e. the aperture diffraction, and the impact of different surface spatial wavelengths to the spot size degradation. Both these effects are strongly dependent on the photon beam energy and mirror incident angles. We employed a method based on physical optics, which applies the Huygens–Fresnel principle to reflection (on which the WISE code is based). In this work we report the results of the first measurements of the focal spot in the DiProI beamline end-station and compare them to the predictions computed with Shadow code and WISE code, starting from the mirror surface profile characterization

  5. Microfocusing of the FERMI@Elettra FEL beam with a K–B active optics system: Spot size predictions by application of the WISE code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raimondi, L., E-mail: lorenzo.raimondi@elettra.trieste.it [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); Svetina, C.; Mahne, N. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); Cocco, D. [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Road, MS-19 Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Abrami, A.; De Marco, M.; Fava, C.; Gerusina, S.; Gobessi, R.; Capotondi, F.; Pedersoli, E.; Kiskinova, M. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); De Ninno, G. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, Rozna Dolina, SI-5000 Nova Gorica (Slovenia); Zeitoun, P. [Laboratoire d' Optique Appliquée, CNRS-ENSTA-École Polytechnique, Chemin de la Humiére, 91761 Palaiseau (France); Dovillaire, G. [Imagine Optic, 18 Rue Charles de Gaulle, 91400 Orsay (France); Lambert, G. [Laboratoire d' Optique Appliquée, CNRS-ENSTA-École Polytechnique, Chemin de la Humiére, 91761 Palaiseau (France); Boutu, W.; Merdji, H.; Gonzalez, A.I. [Service des Photons, Atomes et Molécules, IRAMIS, CEA-Saclay, Btiment 522, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Gauthier, D. [University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, Rozna Dolina, SI-5000 Nova Gorica (Slovenia); and others

    2013-05-11

    FERMI@Elettra, the first seeded EUV-SXR free electron laser (FEL) facility located at Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste has been conceived to provide very short (10–100 fs) pulses with ultrahigh peak brightness and wavelengths from 100 nm to 4 nm. A section fully dedicated to the photon transport and analysis diagnostics, named PADReS, has already been installed and commissioned. Three of the beamlines, EIS-TIMEX, DiProI and LDM, installed after the PADReS section, are in advanced commissioning state and will accept the first users in December 2012. These beam lines employ active X-ray optics in order to focus the FEL beam as well as to perform a controlled beam-shaping at focus. Starting from mirror surface metrology characterization, it is difficult to predict the focal spot shape applying only methods based on geometrical optics such as the ray tracing. Within the geometrical optics approach one cannot take into account the diffraction effect from the optics edges, i.e. the aperture diffraction, and the impact of different surface spatial wavelengths to the spot size degradation. Both these effects are strongly dependent on the photon beam energy and mirror incident angles. We employed a method based on physical optics, which applies the Huygens–Fresnel principle to reflection (on which the WISE code is based). In this work we report the results of the first measurements of the focal spot in the DiProI beamline end-station and compare them to the predictions computed with Shadow code and WISE code, starting from the mirror surface profile characterization.

  6. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  7. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S. [David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California Los Angeles, Ahmanson Translational Imaging Division, Department of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Collaboration: the Alzheimer' sDisease Neuroimaging Initiative

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  8. Accuracy of two optical chlorophyll meters in predicting chemical composition and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability of Brachiaria hybrid, Megathyrsus maximus, and Paspalum atratum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin P. Hughes

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of 2 optical chlorophyll meters: FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI and Yara N-Tester, in predicting neutral detergent fibre (NDF, acid detergent fibre (ADF, acid detergent lignin (ADL, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability (IVOMD of 3 tropical grasses. Optical chlorophyll measurements were taken at 3 stages (4, 8 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Brachiaria hybrid, and Megathyrsus maximus and at 6 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Paspalum atratum (cv. Ubon. Optical chlorophyll measurements showed the highest correlation (r = 0.57 to 0.85 with NDF concentration. The FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI was better than the Yara N-Tester in predicting NDF (R2 = 0.70 and ADF (R2 = 0.79 concentrations in Brachiaria hybrid and NDF (R2 = 0.79 in M. maximus. Similarly, FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI produced better estimates of 24 h IVOMD (IVOMD24h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.81 and IVOMD48h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.65 and M. maximus (R2 = 0.75. However, these prediction models had relatively low concordance correlation coefficients, i.e., CCC >0.90, but random errors were the main source of bias. It was, therefore, concluded that both optical chlorophyll meters were poor and unreliable predictors of ADIN and ADL concentrations. Overall, the FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI shows potential to produce useful estimates of IVOMD24h and ADF in Brachiaria hybrid and IVOMD48h and NDF concentrations in M. maximus.

  9. Rain attenuation measurement and prediction on parallel 860-nm free space optical and 58-GHz millimeter-wave paths

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grábner, M.; Kvičera, V.; Fišer, Ondřej

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 3 (2012), 031206/1-031206/6 ISSN 0091-3286 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP102/11/1376 Grant - others:MŠMT(CZ) OC09076 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : optical communications * propagation * atmospheric optics * millimeter waves * rain attenuation Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering Impact factor: 0.880, year: 2012 http://opticalengineering.spiedigitallibrary.org/article.aspx?articleid=1183343

  10. Modeling Patient No-Show History and Predicting Future Outpatient Appointment Behavior in the Veterans Health Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goffman, Rachel M; Harris, Shannon L; May, Jerrold H; Milicevic, Aleksandra S; Monte, Robert J; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Rodriguez, Keri L; Tjader, Youxu C; Vargas, Dominic L

    2017-05-01

    Missed appointments reduce the efficiency of the health care system and negatively impact access to care for all patients. Identifying patients at risk for missing an appointment could help health care systems and providers better target interventions to reduce patient no-shows. Our aim was to develop and test a predictive model that identifies patients that have a high probability of missing their outpatient appointments. Demographic information, appointment characteristics, and attendance history were drawn from the existing data sets from four Veterans Affairs health care facilities within six separate service areas. Past attendance behavior was modeled using an empirical Markov model based on up to 10 previous appointments. Using logistic regression, we developed 24 unique predictive models. We implemented the models and tested an intervention strategy using live reminder calls placed 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead of time. The pilot study targeted 1,754 high-risk patients, whose probability of missing an appointment was predicted to be at least 0.2. Our results indicate that three variables were consistently related to a patient's no-show probability in all 24 models: past attendance behavior, the age of the appointment, and having multiple appointments scheduled on that day. After the intervention was implemented, the no-show rate in the pilot group was reduced from the expected value of 35% to 12.16% (p value < 0.0001). The predictive model accurately identified patients who were more likely to miss their appointments. Applying the model in practice enables clinics to apply more intensive intervention measures to high-risk patients. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  11. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  12. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  13. Assessment of thermal-hydraulic aging characteristics of Wolsong-1 and aging predictions to ensure optimized future operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, H.; Hartmann, W.J.; Seo, H.B.

    2005-01-01

    'Full text:' All industrial plants undergo changes with time and nuclear plants are no exception. Wolsong-1 started its' commercial operation in 1983. Through more than 20 years of operation the plant has experienced aging behavior in many aspects. Specifically, aging of Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS), can affect fuel cooling characteristics. This reduces the margin to Onset of Intermittent Dryout (OID) of the CANDU fuel, a criterion used to conservatively prevent the possibility of fuel failure under nominal and accident scenarios. The power level associated with OID defines the Critical Channel Powers (CCP). In order to mitigate margin degradation Wolsong-1 had cleaned the primary side of all steam generators in March of 2003, reducing reactor inlet header temperature. However, even with this action, degradation of margin is continuing. To track and assess the current conditions of the primary heat transport system components, data showing aging effects are acquired and steady-state thermal-hydraulic models are developed. The resulting analysis allows for optimum safe and economic reactor operation. The following issues are explored specifically with respect to Wolsong-1 nuclear reactor operation. 1. Pressure tube creep measurement, prediction, and model development Radiation induced, increasing pressure tube diameters, specifically pressure tube diametral creep, cause more and more coolant to bypass the sub-channels of the fuel bundles, reducing margin to CCP. For Wolsong-1, pressure tubes were inspected in 1990, 1992, 1994, 2001 and 2004. Measurement in the nineties was done with the 'CIGAR' system and in the 21st century with the 'AFCIS' system. For each year's inspection, more than 12 channels are measured and some channels have been inspected in several years. The diameters of specific channels, repeatedly measured in more than three different years, allow an accurate diametral creep prediction. The initial manufacturing diameter and the aged, measured

  14. Well bore Flow Treatment Used to Predict Radioactive Brine Releases to the Surface from Future Drilling Penetrations into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), New Mexico, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brien, D.G.O.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Hadgu, T.

    1999-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mined geologic repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA.This site is designed for the permanent burial of transuranic radioactive waste generated by defense related activities.The waste produces gases when exposed to brine. This gas generation may result in increased pressures over time. Therefore, a future driller that unknowingly penetrates through the site may experience a blowout. This paper describes the methodology used to predict the resultant volumes of contaminated brine released

  15. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  16. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  17. Proposal for future diagnosis and management of vascular tumors by using automatic software for image processing and statistic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, M D; Draghici, L; Secheli, I; Secheli, M; Codrescu, M; Draghici, I

    2015-01-01

    Infantile Hemangiomas (IH) are the most frequent tumors of vascular origin, and the differential diagnosis from vascular malformations is difficult to establish. Specific types of IH due to the location, dimensions and fast evolution, can determine important functional and esthetic sequels. To avoid these unfortunate consequences it is necessary to establish the exact appropriate moment to begin the treatment and decide which the most adequate therapeutic procedure is. Based on clinical data collected by a serial clinical observations correlated with imaging data, and processed by a computer-aided diagnosis system (CAD), the study intended to develop a treatment algorithm to accurately predict the best final results, from the esthetical and functional point of view, for a certain type of lesion. The preliminary database was composed of 75 patients divided into 4 groups according to the treatment management they received: medical therapy, sclerotherapy, surgical excision and no treatment. The serial clinical observation was performed each month and all the data was processed by using CAD. The project goal was to create a software that incorporated advanced methods to accurately measure the specific IH lesions, integrated medical information, statistical methods and computational methods to correlate this information with that obtained from the processing of images. Based on these correlations, a prediction mechanism of the evolution of hemangioma, which helped determine the best method of therapeutic intervention to minimize further complications, was established.

  18. A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel Davis, Kyle; Bhattachan, Abinash; D’Odorico, Paolo; Suweis, Samir

    2018-06-01

    Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.

  19. Predicting future major depression and persistent depressive symptoms: Development of a prognostic screener and PHQ-4 cutoffs in breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Karen L; Wiley, Joshua F; Crespi, Catherine M; Krull, Jennifer L; Stanton, Annette L

    2018-02-01

    Create a brief, self-report screener for recently diagnosed breast cancer patients to identify patients at risk of future depression. Breast cancer patients (N = 410) within 2 ± 1 months after diagnosis provided data on depression vulnerability. Depression outcomes were defined as a high depressive symptom trajectory or a major depressive episode during 16 months after diagnosis. Stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees identified 7 items highly predictive for the depression outcomes from a pool of 219 candidate depression vulnerability items. Three of the 7 items were from the Patient Health Questionnaire 4 (PHQ-4), a validated screener for current anxiety/depressive disorder that has not been tested to identify risk for future depression. Thresholds classifying patients as high or low risk on the new Depression Risk Questionnaire 7 (DRQ-7) and the PHQ-4 were obtained. Predictive performance of the DRQ-7 and PHQ-4 was assessed on a holdout validation subsample. DRQ-7 items assess loneliness, irritability, persistent sadness, and low acceptance of emotion as well as 3 items from the PHQ-4 (anhedonia, depressed mood, and worry). A DRQ-7 score of ≥6/23 identified depression outcomes with 0.73 specificity, 0.83 sensitivity, 0.68 positive predictive value, and 0.86 negative predictive value. A PHQ-4 score of ≥3/12 performed moderately well but less accurately than the DRQ-7 (net reclassification improvement = 10%; 95% CI [0.5-16]). The DRQ-7 and the PHQ-4 with a new cutoff score are clinically accessible screeners for risk of depression in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients. Use of the screener to select patients for preventive interventions awaits validation of the screener in other samples. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior predict dietary intention and future dieting in an ethnically diverse sample of overweight and obese veterans attending medical clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K

    2016-04-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans' numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one's weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior's (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB's ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans' facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior Predict Dietary Intention and Future Dieting in an Ethnically Diverse Sample of Overweight and Obese Veterans Attending Medical Clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N.; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K.

    2016-01-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans’ numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one’s weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior’s (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB’s ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans’ facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. PMID:26792774

  2. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukwa, Martin; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-12-08

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of its habitats using ecological niche modeling tools. The general glacial potential range of the studied species was wider than it is nowadays and its niches coverage decreased by almost 25% since last glacial maximum. The refugial areas were covered by cool and dry grasslands and scrubs and suitable niches in South America were located near the glacier limit. According to our analyses the further climate changes will not significantly influence the distribution of the suitable niches of O. austroamericana.

  3. Distributed fiber optic sensor-enhanced detection and prediction of shrinkage-induced delamination of ultra-high-performance concrete overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Yi; Valipour, Mahdi; Meng, Weina; Khayat, Kamal H.; Chen, Genda

    2017-08-01

    This study develops a delamination detection system for smart ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) overlays using a fully distributed fiber optic sensor. Three 450 mm (length) × 200 mm (width) × 25 mm (thickness) UHPC overlays were cast over an existing 200 mm thick concrete substrate. The initiation and propagation of delamination due to early-age shrinkage of the UHPC overlay were detected as sudden increases and their extension in spatial distribution of shrinkage-induced strains measured from the sensor based on pulse pre-pump Brillouin optical time domain analysis. The distributed sensor is demonstrated effective in detecting delamination openings from microns to hundreds of microns. A three-dimensional finite element model with experimental material properties is proposed to understand the complete delamination process measured from the distributed sensor. The model is validated using the distributed sensor data. The finite element model with cohesive elements for the overlay-substrate interface can predict the complete delamination process.

  4. Froissart type rise of cross sections and predictions for spectra and multiplicities of hadrons at future accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ter-Martirosyan, K.A.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental data of ISR and SPS colliders on σ tot and on the diffraction cone slope [B(s)] t=0 are used for a more precise determination of parameters (s=αp(0)-1 and others) of the supercritical Pomeron. With account of all P n rescatterings it leads to the Froissart type rise of cross sections at high energy. The quark-gluon string model of Pomeron, describing the existing experimental data, leads to predictions for super high energies of spectra of hadrons produced with small p perpendcular , in particular, the values of (dN ch /dy) y=0 , hadron average multiplicities =N-bar ch (ξ) and even their distributions over multiplicity W(N)=S N /σ in . The results are presented as curves and tables for energies √ s=0.9, 2, 4, 10, 20, 40, 10 2 , 10 3 TeV

  5. Understanding the Effects of Sampling on Healthcare Risk Modeling for the Prediction of Future High-Cost Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moturu, Sai T.; Liu, Huan; Johnson, William G.

    Rapidly rising healthcare costs represent one of the major issues plaguing the healthcare system. Data from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, Arizona's Medicaid program provide a unique opportunity to exploit state-of-the-art machine learning and data mining algorithms to analyze data and provide actionable findings that can aid cost containment. Our work addresses specific challenges in this real-life healthcare application with respect to data imbalance in the process of building predictive risk models for forecasting high-cost patients. We survey the literature and propose novel data mining approaches customized for this compelling application with specific focus on non-random sampling. Our empirical study indicates that the proposed approach is highly effective and can benefit further research on cost containment in the healthcare industry.

  6. A brief survey of patients' first impression after CPAP titration predicts future CPAP adherence: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balachandran, Jay S; Yu, Xiaohong; Wroblewski, Kristen; Mokhlesi, Babak

    2013-03-15

    CPAP adherence patterns are often established very early in the course of therapy. Our objective was to quantify patients' perception of CPAP therapy using a 6-item questionnaire administered in the morning following CPAP titration. We hypothesized that questionnaire responses would independently predict CPAP adherence during the first 30 days of therapy. We retrospectively reviewed the CPAP perception questionnaires of 403 CPAP-naïve adults who underwent in-laboratory titration and who had daily CPAP adherence data available for the first 30 days of therapy. Responses to the CPAP perception questionnaire were analyzed for their association with mean CPAP adherence and with changes in daily CPAP adherence over 30 days. Patients were aged 52 ± 14 years, 53% were women, 54% were African American, the mean body mass index (BMI) was 36.3 ± 9.1 kg/m(2), and most patients had moderate-severe OSA. Four of 6 items from the CPAP perception questionnaire- regarding difficulty tolerating CPAP, discomfort with CPAP pressure, likelihood of wearing CPAP, and perceived health benefit-were significantly correlated with mean 30-day CPAP adherence, and a composite score from these 4 questions was found to be internally consistent. Stepwise linear regression modeling demonstrated that 3 variables were significant and independent predictors of reduced mean CPAP adherence: worse score on the 4-item questionnaire, African American race, and non-sleep specialist ordering polysomnogram and CPAP therapy. Furthermore, a worse score on the 4-item CPAP perception questionnaire was consistently associated with decreased mean daily CPAP adherence over the first 30 days of therapy. In this pilot study, responses to a 4-item CPAP perception questionnaire administered to patients immediately following CPAP titration independently predicted mean CPAP adherence during the first 30 days. Further prospective validation of this questionnaire in different patient populations is warranted.

  7. Rheumatology in the community of Madrid: current availability of rheumatologists and future needs using a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro y De Mercado, Pablo; Blasco Bravo, Antonio Javier; Lázaro y De Mercado, Ignacio; Castañeda, Santos; López Robledillo, Juan Carlos

    2013-01-01

    To: 1) describe the distribution of the public sector rheumatologists; 2) identify variables on which the workload in Rheumatology depends; and 3) build a predictive model on the need of rheumatologists for the next 10 years, in the Community of Madrid (CM). The information was obtained through structured questionnaires sent to all services/units of Rheumatology of public hospitals in the CM. The population figures, current and forecasted, were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. A predictive model was built based on information about the current and foreseeable supply, current and foreseeable demand, and the assumptions and criteria used to match supply with demand. The underlying uncertainty in the model was assessed by sensitivity analysis. In the CM in 2011 there were 150 staff rheumatologists and 49 residents in 27 centers, which is equivalent to one rheumatologist for every 33,280 inhabitants in the general population, and one for every 4,996 inhabitants over 65 years. To keep the level of assistance of 2011 in 2021 in the general population, it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more rheumatologists in scenarios of demand higher than 15%. However, to keep the level of assistance in the population over 65 years of age it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more specialists even without increased demand. The model developed may be very useful for planning, with the CM policy makers, the needs of human resources in Rheumatology in the coming years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tosca eBallerini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear.

  9. Development of the prediction technology of cable disconnection of in-core neutron detector for the future high-temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazaki, Yosuke; Sawahata, Hiroaki; Kawamoto, Taiki; Suzuki, Hisashi; Shinohara, Masanori; Honda, Yuki; Katsuyama, Kozo; Takada, Shoji; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance technologies for the reactor system have been developed by using the high-temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR). One of the important purposes of development is to accumulate the experiences and data to satisfy the availability of operation up to 90% by shortening the duration of the periodical maintenance for the future HTGRs by shifting from the time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The technical issue of the maintenance of in-core neutron detector, wide range monitor (WRM), is to predict the malfunction caused by cable disconnection to plan the replacement schedule. This is because that it is difficult to observe directly inside of the WRM in detail. The electrical inspection method was proposed to detect and predict the cable disconnection of the WRM by remote monitoring from outside of the reactor by using the time domain reflectometry and so on. The disconnection position, which was specified by the electrical method, was identified by non-destructive and destructive inspection. The accumulated data is expected to be contributed for advanced maintenance of future HTGRs. (author)

  10. Experimental and theoretical investigation of semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) based all-optical switches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Lønstrup

    2004-01-01

    This thesis analyzes semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) based all-optical switches experimentally and through numerical simulations. These devices are candidates for optical signal processing functionalities such as wavelength conversion, regeneration, and logic processing in future transparent......, consisting of an SOA and an asymmetric MZI filter, is analyzed in the small-signal regime, and the obtainable modulation bandwidth is expressed analytically. A new optical spectrum approach to small signal analysis is introduced, and is used to assess the bandwidth enhancing effect of different optical...... filters, as well the impact of the filter phase response. Experiments at 40 Gb/s verify the predictions of the small-signal analysis. Wavelength conversion is demonstrated experimentally at 40 Gb/s using a simple filtering-assisted scheme with an ultra-low optical switching energy, and up to 80 Gb...

  11. Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fries

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

  12. Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

  13. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour; Zikria, Bashir; Carrino, John A.

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  14. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Musculoskeletal Radiology, Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Baltimore, MD (United States); Zikria, Bashir [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Baltimore, MD (United States); Carrino, John A. [Hospital for Special Surgery, Department of Radiology and Imaging, New York, NY (United States)

    2015-11-15

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  15. Light backscatter fiber optic sensor: a new tool for predicting the stability of pork emulsions containing antioxidative potato protein hydrolysate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Gema; Xiong, Youling L; Payne, Fred; Castillo, Manuel

    2015-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether light backscatter response from fresh pork meat emulsions is correlated to final product stability indices. A specially designed fiber optic measurement system was used in combination with a miniature fiber optic spectrometer to determine the intensity of light backscatter within the wavelength range 300-1100 nm (UV/VIS/NIR) at different radial distances (2, 2.5 and 3mm) with respect to the light source in pork meat emulsions with two fat levels (15%, 30%) and two levels (0, 2.5%) of the natural antioxidant hydrolyzed potato protein (HPP). Textural parameters (hardness, deformability, cohesiveness and breaking force), cooking loss, TBARS (1, 2, 3, and 7 days of storage at 4 °C) and CIELAB color coordinates of cooked emulsions were measured. The light backscatter was directly correlated with cooking losses, color, breaking force and TBARS. The optical configuration proposed would compensate for the emulsion heterogeneity, maximizing the existing correlation between the optical signal and the emulsion quality metrics.

  16. Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-01

    To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Data transmission optical link for LLRF TESLA project part II: application for BER measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozniak, Krzysztof T.; Romaniuk, Ryszard S.; Jalmuzna, Wojciech; Olowski, Krzysztof; Perkuszewski, Karol; Zielinski, Jerzy; Kierzkowski, Krzysztof

    2006-02-01

    It may be predicted now, even assuming a very conservative approach, that the next generation of the Low Level RF control systems for future accelerators will use extensively such technologies like: very fast programmable circuits equipped with DSP, embedded PC and optical communication I/O functionalities, as well as multi-gigabit optical transmission of measurement data and control signals.

  18. FIBER OPTICS: Fibre optics: Forty years later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dianov, Evgenii M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of the state of the art in fibre optics and its main applications: optical fibre communications, fibre lasers and fibre sensors for various physical property measurements. The future of fibre optics and the status of this important area of the modern technology in Russia are discussed.

  19. Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

    2015-11-11

    During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Early Improvement in Work Productivity Predicts Future Clinical Course in Depressed Outpatients: Findings from the CO-MED Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Manish K.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Greer, Tracy L.; Carmody, Thomas; Rush, A. John; Trivedi, Madhukar H.

    2018-01-01

    Objective Depression symptom severity, the most commonly studied outcome in antidepressant treatment trials, accounts for only a small portion of burden related to major depression. While lost work productivity is the biggest contributor to depression’s economic burden, few studies have systematically evaluated the independent effect of treatment on work productivity and the relationship between changes in work productivity and longer-term clinical course. Method Work productivity was measured repeatedly by the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) self-report in 331 employed participants with major depression enrolled in the Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED) trial. Trajectories of change in work productivity during the first 6 weeks of treatment were identified and used to predict remission at 3 and 7 months. Results Participants reported reduced absence from work and increased work productivity with antidepressant treatment even after controlling for changes in depression severity. Three distinct trajectories of changes in work productivity were identified: 1) robust early improvement (24%), 2) minimal change (49%), and 3) high-impairment slight reduction (27%). As compared to other participants, those with robust improvement had 3–5 times higher remission rates at 3 months and 2–5 times higher remission rates at 7 months, even after controlling for select baseline variables and remission status at week 6. Conclusions In this secondary analysis, self-reported work productivity improved in depressed patients with antidepressant treatment even after accounting for depressive symptom reduction. Early improvement in work productivity is associated with much higher remission rates after 3 and 7 months of treatment. PMID:27523501

  1. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. The Predictive Value of Indocyanine Green Clearance in Future Liver Remnant for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Following Hepatectomy with Extrahepatic Bile Duct Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

    2016-06-01

    Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most common complications following major hepatectomy. The preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) function is critical to predict the incidence of PHLF. To determine the efficacy of the plasma clearance rate of indocyanine green clearance of FLR (ICGK-F) in predicting PHLF in cases of highly invasive hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. Five hundred and eighty-five patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection, from 2002 to 2014 in a single institution, were evaluated. Among them, 192 patients (33 %) had PHLF. The predictive value of ICGK-F for PHLF was determined and compared with other risk factors for PHLF. The incidence of PHLF was inversely proportional to the level of ICGK-F. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, ICGK-F, combined pancreatoduodenectomy, the operation time, and blood loss were identified as independent risk factors of PHLF. The risk of PHLF increased according to the decrement of ICGK-F (the odds ratio of ICGK-F for each decrement of 0.01 was 1.22; 95 % confidence interval 1.12-1.33; P bile duct resection. This criterion may be useful for highly invasive hepatectomy, such as that with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

  3. Thermal performance prediction and sensitivity analysis for future deployment of molten salt cavity receiver solar power plants in Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudaoud, S.; Khellaf, A.; Mohammedi, K.; Behar, O.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Performance of power plant with molten salt cavity receiver is assessed. • A method has been used to optimize the plant solar multiple, capacity factor and LEC. • Comparison of the simulated results to those of PS20 has shown good agreement. • Higher fossil fuel fraction reduces the LEC and increases the capacity factor. • Highland and Sahara regions are suitable for CRS plants deployment. - Abstract: Of all Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies available today, the molten salt solar power plant appears to be the most important option for providing a major share of the clean and renewable electricity needed in the future. In the present paper, a technical and economic analysis for the implementation of a probable molten salt cavity receiver thermal power plant in Algeria has been carried out. In order to do so, we have investigated the effect of solar field size, storage capacity factor, solar radiation intensity, hybridization and power plant capacity on the thermal efficiency and electricity cost of the selected plant. The system advisor model has been used to perform the technical performance and the economic assessment for different locations (coastal, highland and Sahara regions) in Algeria. Taking into account various factors, a method has been applied to optimize the solar multiple and the capacity factor of the plant, to get a trade-off between the incremental investment costs of the heliostat field and the thermal energy storage. The analysis has shown that the use of higher fossil fuel fraction significantly reduces the levelized electricity cost (LEC) and sensibly increases the capacity factor (CF). The present study indicates that hybrid molten salt solar tower power technology is very promising. The CF and the LEC have been found to be respectively of the order of 71% and 0.35 $/kW e . For solar-only power plants, these parameters are respectively about 27% and 0.63 $/kW e . Therefore, hybrid central receiver systems are

  4. Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  5. Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko; Ohisa, Masayuki; Sugiyama, Aya; Nishida, Kazuo; Inoue, Shingo; Shirasaka, Takuma

    2016-11-01

    Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls. Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections. We estimated that the number of blood donations increased from 5,020,000 in 2008 to 5,260,000 in 2012, but will decrease to 4,770,000 units by 2025. In particular, the number of donors in their 20s and 30s decreased every year. Moreover, the number of donations required to supply blood products would have been increased from 5,390,000 in 2012 to 5,660,000 units in 2025. Thus, the estimated shortfall of blood donations is expected to increase each year from 140,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2025 and then more than double to 1,670,000 in 2050. If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources. © 2016 AABB.

  6. Invited review: Current representation and future trends of predicting amino acid utilization in the lactating dairy cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriola Apelo, S I; Knapp, J R; Hanigan, M D

    2014-07-01

    tissues that would lead to improved requirement prediction systems. Inclusion of variable individual EAA efficiencies derived from splanchnic and mammary responses to nutrient and hormonal signals should help reduce dietary protein levels. Supplementing reduced crude protein diets with individual EAA should increase gross N efficiency to more than 30%, reducing N excretion by the US dairy industry by 92,000 t annually. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  8. Dust aerosol and optical properties over North Africa simulated with the ALADIN numerical prediction model from 2006 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, M.; Tulet, P.; Fischer, C.; Bouteloup, Y.; Bouyssel, F.; Brachemi, O.

    2015-02-01

    The seasonal cycle and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols in North Africa were simulated for the period from 2006 to 2010 using the numerical atmospheric model ALADIN coupled to the surface scheme SURFEX. The particularity of the simulations is that the major physical processes responsible for dust emission and transport, as well as radiative effects, are taken into account at short timescales and mesoscale resolution. The aim of these simulations is to quantify the dust emission and deposition, locate the major areas of dust emission and establish a climatology of aerosol optical properties in North Africa. The mean monthly Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) simulated by ALADIN is compared with the AOTs derived from the standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms of the Aqua-MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over North Africa, and with a set of sun photometer measurements located at Banizoumbou, Cinzana, Soroa, Mbour and Capo Verde. The vertical distribution of dust aerosol represented by extinction profiles is also analysed using CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations. The annual dust emission simulated by ALADIN over North Africa is 878 Tg year-1. The Bodélé depression appears to be the main area of dust emission in North Africa, with an average estimate of about 21.6 Tg year-1. The simulated AOTs are in good agreement with satellite and sun photometer observations. The positions of the maxima of the modelled AOTs over North Africa match the observed positions, and the ALADIN simulations satisfactorily reproduce the various dust events over the 2006-2010 period. The AOT climatology proposed in this paper provides a solid database of optical properties and consolidates the existing climatology over this region derived from satellites, the AERONET network and Regional Climate Models. Moreover, the three-dimensional distribution of the simulated AOTs also provides information about the

  9. Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and