The JPL optical communications telescope laboratory (OCTL) test bed for the future optical Deep Space Network

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, K. E.; Page, N.; Wu, J.; Srinivasan, M.

2003-01-01

Relative to RF, the lower power-consumption and lower mass of high bandwidth optical telecommunications make this technology extremely attractive for returning data from future NASA/JPL deep space probes.

Negative optical inertia for enhancing the sensitivity of future gravitational-wave detectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalili, Farid; Danilishin, Stefan; Mueller-Ebhardt, Helge; Miao Haixing; Zhao Chunnong; Chen Yanbei

2011-01-01

We consider enhancing the sensitivity of future gravitational-wave detectors by using double optical spring. When the power, detuning and bandwidth of the two carriers are chosen appropriately, the effect of the double optical spring can be described as a 'negative inertia', which cancels the positive inertia of the test masses and thus increases their response to gravitational waves. This allows us to surpass the free-mass standard quantum limit (SQL) over a broad frequency band, through signal amplification, rather than noise cancellation, which has been the case for all broadband SQL-beating schemes so far considered for gravitational-wave detectors. The merit of such signal amplification schemes lies in the fact that they are less susceptible to optical losses than noise-cancellation schemes. We show that it is feasible to demonstrate such an effect with the Gingin High Optical Power Test Facility, and it can eventually be implemented in future advanced GW detectors.

A Review on Predicting Ground PM2.5 Concentration Using Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanyuan Chu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This study reviewed the prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 from satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD and summarized the advantages and limitations of these predicting models. A total of 116 articles were included from 1436 records retrieved. The number of such studies has been increasing since 2003. Among these studies, four predicting models were widely used: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR (25 articles, Mixed-Effect Model (MEM (23 articles, Chemical Transport Model (CTM (16 articles and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR (10 articles. We found that there is no so-called best model among them and each has both advantages and limitations. Regarding the prediction accuracy, MEM performs the best, while MLR performs worst. CTM predicts PM2.5 better on a global scale, while GWR tends to perform well on a regional level. Moreover, prediction performance can be significantly improved by combining meteorological variables with land use factors of each region, instead of only considering meteorological variables. In addition, MEM has advantages in dealing with the AOD data with missing values. We recommend that with the help of higher resolution AOD data, future works could be focused on developing satellite-based predicting models for the prediction of historical PM2.5 and other air pollutants.

Applications of photonic crystal fibers in optical communications - What is in the future?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard; Lin, Chinlon

2005-01-01

Superior control of guiding properties in photonic-crystal fibers led to several interesting applications in optical communications ranging from nonlinear optical signal processing to high-power fiber amplifiers. This paper will review recent developments and discuss the future possibilities....

Optical metrology for analysis of lobster-eye x-ray optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irving, Thomas H.K.; Peele, Andrew G.; Nugent, Keith A.

2003-01-01

A new method that uses optical microscopy to determine the physical structure of lobster-eye x-ray optics is described. This approach offers the ability to predict x-ray performance without having to take an x-ray measurement. An overlapping series of images of the entrance and exit faces of an optic are obtained and examined by purpose-built software. A 24-parameter description of each channel is obtained from which a quantitative analysis of all the major optic defects, except surface roughness, is performed. Results for a planar lobster-eye optic are used to illustrate this technique and discuss its abilities as well as directions for future enhancements

Wearable Optical Sensors

KAUST Repository

Ballard, Zachary S.; Ozcan, Aydogan

2017-01-01

The market for wearable sensors is predicted to grow to $5.5 billion by 2025, impacting global health in unprecedented ways. Optics and photonics will play a key role in the future of these wearable technologies, enabling highly sensitive

Exhibition: Fibre optics, the future is at hand

CERN Multimedia

Anaïs Schaeffer

2012-01-01

Until 20 June, the Pont de la Machine in Geneva will host an exhibition on fibre optics, sponsored by SIG. CERN, a major user of this technology, was invited to take part with a presentation of some of its scintillating fibre detectors.   The CERN module, designed for the SIG's fibre optics exhibition. Visitors can discover a cosmic ray detector (on the right) and its oscilloscope (on the left), as well as one of the ALFA detector modules (at the back). The Services industriels genevois (SIG), who are in the process of deploying an optical fibre network in Geneva, have decided to showcase this technology with an exhibition entitled “Fibre optique – Le futur à portée de main.” The exhibition, which will be open to the public from 26 April to 20 June, is being held at the Espace ExpoSIG, at the Pont de la Machine in the centre of Geneva. “CERN’s Physics Department was approached by SIG at the start of this year to ...

Optic nerve magnetisation transfer ratio after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yejun Wang

Full Text Available Magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR can reveal the degree of proton exchange between free water and macromolecules and was suggested to be pathological informative. We aimed to investigate changes in optic nerve MTR over 12 months following acute optic neuritis (ON and to determine whether MTR measurements can predict clinical and paraclinical outcomes at 6 and 12 months. Thirty-seven patients with acute ON were studied within 2 weeks of presentation and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Assessments included optic nerve MTR, retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL thickness, multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP amplitude and latency and high (100% and low (2.5% contrast letter acuity. Eleven healthy controls were scanned twice four weeks apart for comparison with patients. Patient unaffected optic nerve MTR did not significantly differ from controls at any time-point. Compared to the unaffected nerve, affected optic nerve MTR was significantly reduced at 3 months (mean percentage interocular difference = -9.24%, p = 0.01, 6 months (mean = -12.48%, p<0.0001 and 12 months (mean = -7.61%, p = 0.003. Greater reduction in MTR at 3 months in patients was associated with subsequent loss of high contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.0003 and 12 (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.009 months, low contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.047 months, and RNFL thinning at 12 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.044 months. Stratification of individual patient MTR time courses based on flux over 12 months (stable, putative remyelination and putative degeneration predicted RNFL thinning at 12 months (F(2,32 = 3.59, p = 0.02. In conclusion, these findings indicate that MTR flux after acute ON is predictive of axonal degeneration and visual disability outcomes.

Optical coherence tomography – current and future applications

Science.gov (United States)

Adhi, Mehreen; Duker, Jay S.

2013-01-01

Purpose of review Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has revolutionized the clinical practice of ophthalmology. It is a noninvasive imaging technique that provides high-resolution, cross-sectional images of the retina, retinal nerve fiber layer and the optic nerve head. This review discusses the present applications of the commercially available spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) systems in the diagnosis and management of retinal diseases, with particular emphasis on choroidal imaging. Future directions of OCT technology and their potential clinical uses are discussed. Recent findings Analysis of the choroidal thickness in healthy eyes and disease states such as age-related macular degeneration, central serous chorioretinopathy, diabetic retinopathy and inherited retinal dystrophies has been successfully achieved using SD-OCT devices with software improvements. Future OCT innovations such as longer-wavelength OCT systems including the swept-source technology, along with Doppler OCT and en-face imaging, may improve the detection of subtle microstructural changes in chorioretinal diseases by improving imaging of the choroid. Summary Advances in OCT technology provide for better understanding of pathogenesis, improved monitoring of progression and assistance in quantifying response to treatment modalities in diseases of the posterior segment of the eye. Further improvements in both hardware and software technologies should further advance the clinician’s ability to assess and manage chorioretinal diseases. PMID:23429598

Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

Empirical prediction of optical transitions in metallic armchair SWCNTs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. R. Ahmed Jamal

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this work, a quick and effective method to calculate the second and third optical transition energies of metallic armchair single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNT is presented. In this proposed method, the transition energy of any armchair SWCNT can be predicted directly by knowing its one chiral index as both of its chiral indices are same. The predicted results are compared with recent experimental data and found to be accurate over a wide diameter range from 2 to 4.8 nm. The empirical equation proposed here is also compared with that proposed in earlier works. The proposed way may help the research works or applications where information of optical transitions of armchair metallic nanotubes is needed.

Optical processing for future computer networks

Science.gov (United States)

Husain, A.; Haugen, P. R.; Hutcheson, L. D.; Warrior, J.; Murray, N.; Beatty, M.

1986-01-01

In the development of future data management systems, such as the NASA Space Station, a major problem represents the design and implementation of a high performance communication network which is self-correcting and repairing, flexible, and evolvable. To obtain the goal of designing such a network, it will be essential to incorporate distributed adaptive network control techniques. The present paper provides an outline of the functional and communication network requirements for the Space Station data management system. Attention is given to the mathematical representation of the operations being carried out to provide the required functionality at each layer of communication protocol on the model. The possible implementation of specific communication functions in optics is also considered.

Polarization modeling and predictions for DKIST part 3: focal ratio and thermal dependencies of spectral polarization fringes and optic retardance

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, David M.; Sueoka, Stacey R.

2018-01-01

Data products from high spectral resolution astronomical polarimeters are often limited by fringes. Fringes can skew derived magnetic field properties from spectropolarimetric data. Fringe removal algorithms can also corrupt the data if the fringes and object signals are too similar. For some narrow-band imaging polarimeters, fringes change the calibration retarder properties and dominate the calibration errors. Systems-level engineering tools for polarimetric instrumentation require accurate predictions of fringe amplitudes, periods for transmission, diattenuation, and retardance. The relevant instabilities caused by environmental, thermal, and optical properties can be modeled and mitigation tools developed. We create spectral polarization fringe amplitude and temporal instability predictions by applying the Berreman calculus and simple interferometric calculations to optics in beams of varying F/ number. We then apply the formalism to superachromatic six-crystal retarders in converging beams under beam thermal loading in outdoor environmental conditions for two of the world's largest observatories: the 10-m Keck telescope and the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST). DKIST will produce a 300-W optical beam, which has imposed stringent requirements on the large diameter six-crystal retarders, dichroic beamsplitters, and internal optics. DKIST retarders are used in a converging beam with F/ ratios between 8 and 62. The fringe spectral periods, amplitudes, and thermal models of retarder behavior assisted DKIST optical designs and calibration plans with future application to many astronomical spectropolarimeters. The Low Resolution Imaging Spectrograph with polarimetry instrument at Keck also uses six-crystal retarders in a converging F / 13 beam in a Cassegrain focus exposed to summit environmental conditions providing observational verification of our predictions.

Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

Science.gov (United States)

Brentner, Kenneth S.

1997-01-01

Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

CERN Document Server

Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

2015-01-01

This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Prediction of TARANIS Observations of TGF's and Optical Emissions from Red Sprites

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, M. A.

2006-12-01

TARANIS (Tool for the Analysis of Radiation from Lightning and Sprites) is a French (CNES, Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales) micro-satellite that is scheduled for launch in 2009. This will be the first satellite that will measure coincident gamma-rays and optical emissions from atmospheric discharges. These measurements will provide important clues concerning the physics of discharges that produce gamma-rays and will provide more definitive evidence of the role of conventional breakdown versus runaway breakdown than is currently available. While a variety of discharges may be associated with Transient Gamma Ray Flashes (TGF's), this study will focus on emissions expected from red sprites. Future studies will focus on other types of discharges (for example, gigantic jets or blue jets) to see whether they should produce detectable signal levels at both gamma-ray and optical frequencies. The source of terrestrial TGF's is a matter of debate at this time. Many experts in the field have interpreted the data associated with the RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager) satellite to be indicative that the discharges associated with terrestrial gamma-rays are not associated with sprites. However, RHESSI was not designed for the purpose of collecting gamma-ray measurements from terrestrial discharges; does not possess a coincident optical measurement capability; and must average data over many events to predict a spectrum. We will present a statistical analysis of the relative efficiencies of the RHESSI and TARANIS satellite designs for the detection of TGF's associated with sprites. We will show results from a fully 2-D electromagnetic model (UNIMAX, the Unified Maxwell code) and an optical model (POEM, the Physics Based Optical Emission Model) to demonstrate the level of agreement between the simulations and the gamma-ray spectrum measurements and optical measurements (camera, photometer, and spectral measurements) for several different classes of

Future opportunities in production of disposable optics and electronics

Science.gov (United States)

Korhonen, Raimo

2001-05-01

The several production methods of paper processing chain can be used, by analogy, to generate novel ideas for production of optics and electronics. Paper processing is a very fast reel-to-reel process: In the beginning of the paper web production the process is running at the speed of over thousand meters per minute and the web width can be 10 meters, and still at the later stages the speed is several hundreds of meters per minute with the web width of a couple of meters. There are several potential reel-to-reel production methods like embossing, printing, laminating and different kinds of vacuum coating, for example evaporation and sputtering. End products are complex multi-layer composite structures. The benefits from this analogy for optics and electronics would be ideas for ultra fast production, paper-like disposable and recyclable products and the integration of optics and electronics into ordinary things like books, wallpapers, tissue papers and packages. Two experiments are presented to demonstrate the possibilities. In the first experiment optical patterns are embossed directly on paper. In the second one conductive polymers are printed on paper and plastic webs. In future, a wide network of cooperation will be needed to realize all the opportunities.

Identified state-space prediction model for aero-optical wavefronts

Science.gov (United States)

Faghihi, Azin; Tesch, Jonathan; Gibson, Steve

2013-07-01

A state-space disturbance model and associated prediction filter for aero-optical wavefronts are described. The model is computed by system identification from a sequence of wavefronts measured in an airborne laboratory. Estimates of the statistics and flow velocity of the wavefront data are shown and can be computed from the matrices in the state-space model without returning to the original data. Numerical results compare velocity values and power spectra computed from the identified state-space model with those computed from the aero-optical data.

Envisioning the future by predicting the past

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skrydstrup, Martin

2017-01-01

), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future...

Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

2008-01-01

Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

2018-02-01

Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

A new generation of optical diagnostics for bladder cancer: technology, diagnostic accuracy, and future applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cauberg, Evelyne C. C.; de Bruin, Daniël M.; Faber, Dirk J.; van Leeuwen, Ton G.; de La Rosette, Jean J. M. C. H.; de Reijke, Theo M.

2009-01-01

CONTEXT: New developments in optical diagnostics have a potential for less invasive and improved detection of bladder cancer. OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of the technology and diagnostic yield of recently developed optical diagnostics for bladder cancer and to outline their potential future

Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

2018-03-01

Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Catania, Kenneth C.

2010-01-01

Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

Wearable Optical Sensors

KAUST Repository

Ballard, Zachary S.

2017-07-12

The market for wearable sensors is predicted to grow to $5.5 billion by 2025, impacting global health in unprecedented ways. Optics and photonics will play a key role in the future of these wearable technologies, enabling highly sensitive measurements of otherwise invisible information and parameters about our health and surrounding environment. Through the implementation of optical wearable technologies, such as heart rate, blood pressure, and glucose monitors, among others, individuals are becoming more empowered to generate a wealth of rich, multifaceted physiological and environmental data, making personalized medicine a reality. Furthermore, these technologies can also be implemented in hospitals, clinics, point-of-care offices, assisted living facilities or even in patients’ homes for real-time, remote patient monitoring, creating more expeditious as well as resource-efficient systems. Several key optical technologies make such sensors possible, including e.g., optical fiber textiles, colorimetric, plasmonic, and fluorometric sensors, as well as Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) and Organic Photo-Diode (OPD) technologies. These emerging technologies and platforms show great promise as basic sensing elements in future wearable devices and will be reviewed in this chapter along-side currently existing fully integrated wearable optical sensors.

About flat telescopic optics for the future operation of the LHC

CERN Document Server

Fartoukh, Stephane; Ponce, Laurette; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio

2018-01-01

This report discusses and motivates the possible deployment of flat collision optics for the future operation of the LHC. Performance reach estimates are presented, showing a possible improvement of the peak luminosity by 20 % at constant beam parameters in comparison with round optics, and a virtual luminosity reaching 1.0 × 1E35 cm−2s−1 assuming the availability, inject-ability and ramp-ability up to 7.0 TeV of the full LIU beam by the end of Run III. These estimates are supported by a certain number of simulation results, including beam-beam effects, and operational aspects based on the first LHC machine development session which took place with probe beams and flat optics in 2017. The main expected optics limitations, together with possible mitigation measures, are also analyzed in details.

About flat telescopic optics for the future operation of the LHC

CERN Document Server

Fartoukh, Stephane; Ponce, Laurette; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio

2018-01-01

This report discusses and motivates the possible deployment of flat collision optics for the future operation of the LHC. Performance reach estimates are presented, showing a possible improvement of the peak luminosity by 20 % at constant beam parameters in comparison with round optics, and a virtual luminosity reaching 1.0 × 1035 cm−2s−1 assuming the availability, inject-ability and ramp-ability up to 7.0 TeV of the full LIU beam by the end of Run III. These estimates are supported by a certain number of simulation results, including beam-beam effects, and operational aspects based on the first LHC machine development session which took place with probe beams and flat optics in 2017. The main expected optics limitations, together with possible mitigation measures, are also analyzed in details.

COSIGN – developing an optical software controlled data plane for future large-scale datacenter networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Galili, Michael; Kamchevska, Valerija; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2015-01-01

This talk will present the work of the EU project COSIGN targeting the development of optical data plane solutions for future high-capacity datacenter networks (DCNs). Optical data planes with high capacity and high flexibility through software control are developed in order to enable a coherent...

An Optical Lightning Simulator in an Electrified Cloud-Resolving Model to Prepare the Future Space Lightning Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Bovalo, Christophe; Defer, Eric; Pinty, Jean-Pierre

2016-04-01

The future decade will see the launch of several space missions designed to monitor the total lightning activity. Among these missions, the American (Geostationary Lightning Mapper - GLM) and European (Lightning Imager - LI) optical detectors will be onboard geostationary satellites (GOES-R and MTG, respectively). For the first time, the total lightning activity will be monitored over the full Earth disk and at a very high temporal resolution (2 and 1 ms, respectively). Missions like the French Tool for the Analysis of Radiation from lightNIng and Sprites (TARANIS) and ISS-LIS will bring complementary information in order to better understand the lightning physics and to improve the weather prediction (nowcasting and forecasting). Such missions will generate a huge volume of new and original observations for the scientific community and weather prediction centers that have to be prepared. Moreover, before the launch of these missions, fundamental questions regarding the interpretation of the optical signal property and its relation to cloud optical thickness and lightning discharge processes need to be further investigated. An innovative approach proposed here is to use the synergy existing in the French MesoNH Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM). Indeed, MesoNH is one of the only CRM able to simulate the lifecycle of electrical charges generated within clouds through non-inductive charging process (dependent of the 1-moment microphysical scheme). The lightning flash geometry is based on a fractal law while the electrical field is diagnosed thanks to the Gauss' law. The lightning optical simulator is linked to the electrical scheme as the lightning radiance at 777.4 nm is a function of the lightning current, approximated by the charges neutralized along the lightning path. Another important part is the scattering of this signal by the hydrometeors (mainly ice particles) that is taken into account. Simulations at 1-km resolution are done over the Langmuir Laboratory (New

Experimental and theoretical investigation of semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) based all-optical switches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mads Lønstrup

2004-01-01

This thesis analyzes semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) based all-optical switches experimentally and through numerical simulations. These devices are candidates for optical signal processing functionalities such as wavelength conversion, regeneration, and logic processing in future transparent......, consisting of an SOA and an asymmetric MZI filter, is analyzed in the small-signal regime, and the obtainable modulation bandwidth is expressed analytically. A new optical spectrum approach to small signal analysis is introduced, and is used to assess the bandwidth enhancing effect of different optical...... filters, as well the impact of the filter phase response. Experiments at 40 Gb/s verify the predictions of the small-signal analysis. Wavelength conversion is demonstrated experimentally at 40 Gb/s using a simple filtering-assisted scheme with an ultra-low optical switching energy, and up to 80 Gb...

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramesh Rajagopalan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-11-01

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Ge, Y [University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (United States)

2014-06-15

Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

2014-01-01

Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH

Optical spectroscopy: current advances and future applications in cancer diagnostics and therapy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Evers, Daniel; Evers, D.J.; Hendriks, B.; Lucassen, G.W.; Lucassen, Gerald; Ruers, Theo J.M.

2012-01-01

Optical spectroscopy (OS) is a tissue-sensing technique that could enhance cancer diagnosis and treatment in the near future. With OS, tissue is illuminated with a selected light spectrum. Different tissue types can be distinguished from each other based on specific changes in the reflected light

Polymer Optical Fiber Sensor and the Prediction of Sensor Response Utilizing Artificial Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Haroglu, Derya

characteristics: reproducibility, accuracy, selectivity, aging, and resolution. Artificial neural network (ANN), a mathematical model formed by mimicking the human nervous system, was used to predict the sensor response. Qwiknet (version 2.23) software was used to develop ANNs and according to the results of Qwiknet the prediction performances for training and testing data sets were 75%, and 83.33% respectively. In this dissertation, Chapter 1 describes the worldwide plastic optical fiber (POF) and fiber optic sensor markets, and the existing textile structures used in fiber optic sensing design particularly for the applications of biomedical and structural health monitoring (SHM). Chapter 2 provides a literature review in detail on polymer optical fibers, fiber optic sensors, and occupancy sensing in the passenger seats of automobiles. Chapter 3 includes the research objectives. Chapter 4 presents the response of POF to tensile loading, bending, and cyclic tensile loading with discussion parts. Chapter 5 includes an e-mail based survey to prioritize customer needs in a Quality Function Deployment (QFD) format utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and survey results. Chapter 6 describes the POF sensor design and the behavior of it under pressure. Chapter 7 provides a data analysis based on the experimental results of Chapter 6. Chapter 8 presents the summary of this study and recommendations for future work.

Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z

1999-09-01

In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

Passive Optical Access Networks: State of the Art and Future Evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommaso Muciaccia

2014-10-01

Full Text Available In the very last years, optical access networks are growing very rapidly, from both the network operators and the research interests points of view. Fiber To The Home (FTTH is already a reality in plenty of real contexts and there has been a further stimulus to the proposal of new solutions and the investigation of new possibilities, in order to optimize network performance and reduce capital and operational expenditure. A complete and systematic overview of passive optical access networks is presented in this paper, concerning both the hot research topics and the main operative issues about the design guidelines and the deployment of Passive Optical Networks (PON architectures, nowadays the most commonly implemented approach to realize optical fiber links in the access networks. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages of different multiplexing techniques is discussed, with specific reference to WDM-based networks, almost universally considered as the enabling technology for future proof bandwidth requirements. An exhaustive summary is also given about the-state-of-the-art of modulation and encoding techniques recently proposed by the scientific community, as well as the open challenges (such as colorless and coolerless ONUs for telecom companies and international standardization compliance.

Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

1999-01-01

We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

Tools for Predicting Optical Damage on Inertial Confinement Fusion-Class Laser Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nostrand, M.C.; Carr, C.W.; Liao, Z.M.; Honig, J.; Spaeth, M.L.; Manes, K.R.; Johnson, M.A.; Adams, J.J.; Cross, D.A.; Negres, R.A.; Widmayer, C.C.; Williams, W.H.; Matthews, M.J.; Jancaitis, K.S.; Kegelmeyer, L.M.

2010-01-01

Operating a fusion-class laser to its full potential requires a balance of operating constraints. On the one hand, the total laser energy delivered must be high enough to give an acceptable probability for ignition success. On the other hand, the laser-induced optical damage levels must be low enough to be acceptably handled with the available infrastructure and budget for optics recycle. Our research goal was to develop the models, database structures, and algorithmic tools (which we collectively refer to as ''Loop Tools'') needed to successfully maintain this balance. Predictive models are needed to plan for and manage the impact of shot campaigns from proposal, to shot, and beyond, covering a time span of years. The cost of a proposed shot campaign must be determined from these models, and governance boards must decide, based on predictions, whether to incorporate a given campaign into the facility shot plan based upon available resources. Predictive models are often built on damage ''rules'' derived from small beam damage tests on small optics. These off-line studies vary the energy, pulse-shape and wavelength in order to understand how these variables influence the initiation of damage sites and how initiated damage sites can grow upon further exposure to UV light. It is essential to test these damage ''rules'' on full-scale optics exposed to the complex conditions of an integrated ICF-class laser system. Furthermore, monitoring damage of optics on an ICF-class laser system can help refine damage rules and aid in the development of new rules. Finally, we need to develop the algorithms and data base management tools for implementing these rules in the Loop Tools. The following highlights progress in the development of the loop tools and their implementation.

Tools for Predicting Optical Damage on Inertial Confinement Fusion-Class Laser Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nostrand, M C; Carr, C W; Liao, Z M; Honig, J; Spaeth, M L; Manes, K R; Johnson, M A; Adams, J J; Cross, D A; Negres, R A; Widmayer, C C; Williams, W H; Matthews, M J; Jancaitis, K S; Kegelmeyer, L M

2010-12-20

Operating a fusion-class laser to its full potential requires a balance of operating constraints. On the one hand, the total laser energy delivered must be high enough to give an acceptable probability for ignition success. On the other hand, the laser-induced optical damage levels must be low enough to be acceptably handled with the available infrastructure and budget for optics recycle. Our research goal was to develop the models, database structures, and algorithmic tools (which we collectively refer to as ''Loop Tools'') needed to successfully maintain this balance. Predictive models are needed to plan for and manage the impact of shot campaigns from proposal, to shot, and beyond, covering a time span of years. The cost of a proposed shot campaign must be determined from these models, and governance boards must decide, based on predictions, whether to incorporate a given campaign into the facility shot plan based upon available resources. Predictive models are often built on damage ''rules'' derived from small beam damage tests on small optics. These off-line studies vary the energy, pulse-shape and wavelength in order to understand how these variables influence the initiation of damage sites and how initiated damage sites can grow upon further exposure to UV light. It is essential to test these damage ''rules'' on full-scale optics exposed to the complex conditions of an integrated ICF-class laser system. Furthermore, monitoring damage of optics on an ICF-class laser system can help refine damage rules and aid in the development of new rules. Finally, we need to develop the algorithms and data base management tools for implementing these rules in the Loop Tools. The following highlights progress in the development of the loop tools and their implementation.

Prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Jongcheol; Kim, Kyung-Hyun; Shin, Jae-Heon; Huh, Chul; Sung, Gun Yong

2007-07-09

A prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor is presented. An optical resonant reflection biosensor using a guided-mode resonance filter is one of the most promising label-free optical immunosensors due to a sharp reflectance peak and a high sensitivity to the changes of optical path length. We have simulated this type of biosensor using rigorous coupled wave theory to calculate the limit of detection of the thickness of the target protein layer. Theoretically, our biosensor has an estimated ability to detect thickness change approximately the size of typical antigen proteins. We have also investigated the effects of the absorption and divergence of the incident light on the detection ability of the biosensor.

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

A fear index to predict oil futures returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

2013-01-01

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

Does magnetic resonance imaging predict future low back pain?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffens, D; Hancock, M J; Maher, C G

2014-01-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has the potential to identify pathology responsible for low back pain (LBP). However, the importance of findings on MRI remains controversial. We aimed to systematically review whether MRI findings of the lumbar spine predict future LBP in different samples...

Advances in Retinal Optical Imaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanxiu Li

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Retinal imaging has undergone a revolution in the past 50 years to allow for better understanding of the eye in health and disease. Significant improvements have occurred both in hardware such as lasers and optics in addition to software image analysis. Optical imaging modalities include optical coherence tomography (OCT, OCT angiography (OCTA, photoacoustic microscopy (PAM, scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (SLO, adaptive optics (AO, fundus autofluorescence (FAF, and molecular imaging (MI. These imaging modalities have enabled improved visualization of retinal pathophysiology and have had a substantial impact on basic and translational medical research. These improvements in technology have translated into early disease detection, more accurate diagnosis, and improved management of numerous chorioretinal diseases. This article summarizes recent advances and applications of retinal optical imaging techniques, discusses current clinical challenges, and predicts future directions in retinal optical imaging.

Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. F. Wright

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Todd J.; And Others

Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Larry J.

After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Raymond N.

1997-03-01

This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

Hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future: overview of session and proceeding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. H. S. Chiew

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of this IAHS symposium and PIAHS proceeding on "hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future". The paper provides a brief review of research on this topic, presents approaches used to account for nonstationarity when extrapolating models to predict the future, and summarises the papers in this session and proceeding.

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

Science.gov (United States)

Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

2017-11-01

Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

Prediction of future nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, U.; Gordon, D.

2006-01-01

Groundwater that feeds streams and springs in the Lake Rotorua catchment has 15-130 years mean residence times in the aquifer. These long residence times of the water in the ground result in large time-delays of nitrogen loading from historical agricultural and urban development in the catchment. Currently observed increases in nitrogen loading in surface and groundwater are mostly due to the delayed impact of catchment development that occurred around 55 years ago. Further increases in nitrogen are expected. The time-dependence of the arrival of water to the lake that was recharged since landuse development in the 1950's was calculated using the age distribution of the water derived from tritium, CFC and SF 6 data. The arrival of post-landuse water over time was then used to estimate the nitrogen load to the lake for the time prior to landuse development, for the time since then, and for the future. Excellent matches between measured N loads over the last decades and predicted loads demonstrate the robustness of the approach, and that the model assumptions used for future predictions are reasonable. Future groundwater-derived nutrient loads are listed below. No changes are expected in phosphorus loads via groundwater as long as landuse-derived P continues to be absorbed by the volcanic soils in the catchment. The nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua prior to major landuse development in the catchment in the 1950's was calculated to be 60 t/year. This has slowly increased to a present nitrogen load of 420 t/y, delayed by long travel times of the groundwater. The nitrogen loading is expected to further increase to 532 t/y in 50 years (25% increase from current), 572 t/y in 100 years (35% increase from current), and to 619 t/y at steady-state (47% increase from current). About 75% of the groundwater-derived nitrogen loading at steady-state enters Lake Rotorua via the nine major streams, and about 20% enters the lake from direct groundwater inflow to the lake bed. The

'Will I want these stickers tomorrow?' Preschoolers' ability to predict current and future needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Ordas, Gema

2017-11-01

Between 3 and 5 years of age, children develop the ability to plan for their own and others' future needs; however, they have great difficulty predicting future needs that conflict with current ones. Importantly, this ability has only been tested in the domain of physiological states (e.g., thirst). Therefore, it is still an open question whether in a different context preschoolers can disengage from their current needs to secure a different future one. In a Resource Allocation task, 4- and 5-year-olds had to distribute three types of rewards between themselves and another child for either 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward at beginning of the task. Only 5-year-olds could predict future needs that conflict with their current ones and act accordingly. Younger children's performance is discussed in the context of temporal and social distance. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? By the age of 4, children can plan for their own and others' future needs. Seven-year-old children still have difficulty predicting future physiological needs that conflict with their current ones. What does this study add? In a Resource Allocation task, preschoolers had to share rewards with another child for 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward. This study shows that 5-year-olds can predict future (non-physiological) needs that conflict with their current ones. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future

Science.gov (United States)

Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

2014-01-01

Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain. The majority of patients with DOA harbour pathogenic mutations within OPA1, a nuclear gene that codes for a multifunctional inner mitochondrial membrane protein. Despite their contrasting genetic basis, LHON and DOA share overlapping pathological and clinical features that serve to highlight the striking tissue-specific vulnerability of the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) layer to disturbed mitochondrial function. In addition to severe visual loss secondary to progressive optic nerve degeneration, a subgroup of patients will also develop a more aggressive syndromic phenotype marked by significant neurological deficits. The management of LHON and DOA remains largely supportive, but major advances in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning RGC loss in these two disorders are paving the way for novel forms of treatment aimed at halting or reversing visual deterioration at different stages of the disease process. In addition to neuroprotective strategies for rescuing RGCs from irreversible cell death, innovative in vitro fertilisation techniques are providing the tantalising prospect of preventing the germline transmission of pathogenic mtDNA mutations, eradicating in so doing the risk of disease in future generations. PMID:24603424

Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

2014-05-01

Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain. The majority of patients with DOA harbour pathogenic mutations within OPA1, a nuclear gene that codes for a multifunctional inner mitochondrial membrane protein. Despite their contrasting genetic basis, LHON and DOA share overlapping pathological and clinical features that serve to highlight the striking tissue-specific vulnerability of the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) layer to disturbed mitochondrial function. In addition to severe visual loss secondary to progressive optic nerve degeneration, a subgroup of patients will also develop a more aggressive syndromic phenotype marked by significant neurological deficits. The management of LHON and DOA remains largely supportive, but major advances in our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning RGC loss in these two disorders are paving the way for novel forms of treatment aimed at halting or reversing visual deterioration at different stages of the disease process. In addition to neuroprotective strategies for rescuing RGCs from irreversible cell death, innovative in vitro fertilisation techniques are providing the tantalising prospect of preventing the germline transmission of pathogenic mtDNA mutations, eradicating in so doing the risk of disease in future generations.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AS THE TOOL OF EFFICIENCY IMPROVING OF FUTURE PHYSICS TEACHERS TRAINING TO LABORATORY SESSION IN OPTICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goncharenko T.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the problem of the use of information technologies implementation as the tool of the efficiency improving of future physics teachers training to execution of laboratory session in Optics is considered in the article. The problems and contradictions concerning ICT tools use in higher education institutions, the work of which is aimed at future physics teachers training are described. Due to the specifics of future teachers training in higher education institutions, labor market requirements and public procurement, the main ICT tools are identified, that are effective in students’ self-activity work to laboratory session execution. The developed list of electronic resources is divided into blocks according to the topics of laboratory works in Optics. The methodology of using of ICT tools at future students training for laboratory session on the example of individual topics is considered.

Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

OpenAIRE

Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

2018-01-01

This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

Optical modulation in silicon-vanadium dioxide photonic structures

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Kevin J.; Hallman, Kent A.; Haglund, Richard F.; Weiss, Sharon M.

2017-08-01

All-optical modulators are likely to play an important role in future chip-scale information processing systems. In this work, through simulations, we investigate the potential of a recently reported vanadium dioxide (VO2) embedded silicon waveguide structure for ultrafast all-optical signal modulation. With a VO2 length of only 200 nm, finite-differencetime- domain simulations suggest broadband (200 nm) operation with a modulation greater than 12 dB and an insertion loss of less than 3 dB. Predicted performance metrics, including modulation speed, modulation depth, optical bandwidth, insertion loss, device footprint, and energy consumption of the proposed Si-VO2 all-optical modulator are benchmarked against those of current state-of-the-art all-optical modulators with in-plane optical excitation.

Space Active Optics: toward optimized correcting mirrors for future large spaceborne observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Laslandes, Marie; Hugot, Emmanuel; Ferrari, Marc; Lemaitre, Gérard; Liotard, Arnaud

2011-10-01

Wave-front correction in optical instruments is often needed, either to compensate Optical Path Differences, off-axis aberrations or mirrors deformations. Active optics techniques are developed to allow efficient corrections with deformable mirrors. In this paper, we will present the conception of particular deformation systems which could be used in space telescopes and instruments in order to improve their performances while allowing relaxing specifications on the global system stability. A first section will be dedicated to the design and performance analysis of an active mirror specifically designed to compensate for aberrations that might appear in future 3m-class space telescopes, due to lightweight primary mirrors, thermal variations or weightless conditions. A second section will be dedicated to a brand new design of active mirror, able to compensate for given combinations of aberrations with a single actuator. If the aberrations to be corrected in an instrument and their evolutions are known in advance, an optimal system geometry can be determined thanks to the elasticity theory and Finite Element Analysis.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Predicting future traffic offenders by pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving

OpenAIRE

Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina; Endriulaitienė, Auksė; Šeibokaitė, Laura; Markšaitytė, Rasa

2017-01-01

Worldwide statistics indicate that novice drivers are still one of the riskiest drivers’ groups as they highly contribute to road accidents and traffic rules violations. Thus, the psychological variables that allow predicting whether novice drivers will violate traffic rules are important in risky driving research. The aim of this study is to find out if pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving measured before obtaining driving license could predict future traffic offences during the firs...

Ground-based adaptive optics coronagraphic performance under closed-loop predictive control

Science.gov (United States)

Males, Jared R.; Guyon, Olivier

2018-01-01

The discovery of the exoplanet Proxima b highlights the potential for the coming generation of giant segmented mirror telescopes (GSMTs) to characterize terrestrial-potentially habitable-planets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. This will require continued development and implementation of optimized adaptive optics systems feeding coronagraphs on the GSMTs. Such development should proceed with an understanding of the fundamental limits imposed by atmospheric turbulence. Here, we seek to address this question with a semianalytic framework for calculating the postcoronagraph contrast in a closed-loop adaptive optics system. We do this starting with the temporal power spectra of the Fourier basis calculated assuming frozen flow turbulence, and then apply closed-loop transfer functions. We include the benefits of a simple predictive controller, which we show could provide over a factor of 1400 gain in raw point spread function contrast at 1 λ/D on bright stars, and more than a factor of 30 gain on an I=7.5 mag star such as Proxima. More sophisticated predictive control can be expected to improve this even further. Assuming a photon-noise limited observing technique such as high-dispersion coronagraphy, these gains in raw contrast will decrease integration times by the same large factors. Predictive control of atmospheric turbulence should therefore be seen as one of the key technologies that will enable ground-based telescopes to characterize terrestrial planets.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

300-MHz optical discriminator-counter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turko, B.; Lo, C.C.

1981-07-01

The prediction of future CO 2 content in the atmosphere is not completely credible because the oceanographers and terrestrial ecologists do not agree on the global CO 2 balance. Very precise measurements of O 2 /N 2 ratio using Raman scattering over a few years' period could provide important information and lead to the explanation of the disparity in the atmospheric CO 2 balance. An optical discriminator-counter has been developed to count closely spaced optical events in the few photon level. Simulated optical events as close as 2.5 ns apart had been positively detected by using selected photomultipliers and optimized discriminators. Testing of the optical discriminator-counter was done by using an electrical pulse pair spaced 3 ns apart and also by a similar optical pulse pair generated by fast light-emitting diode. The photomultiplier is capable of counting an average single photoelectron pulse frequency of 50 MHz and has a sensitive detecting area of 50 mm in diameter. The discriminator performance is discussed

Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

2014-01-29

Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

2017-01-01

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

2015-10-01

Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

You'll change more than I will: Adults' predictions about their own and others' future preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Renoult, Louis; Kopp, Leia; Davidson, Patrick S R; Taler, Vanessa; Atance, Cristina M

2016-01-01

It has been argued that adults underestimate the extent to which their preferences will change over time. We sought to determine whether such mispredictions are the result of a difficulty imagining that one's own current and future preferences may differ or whether it also characterizes our predictions about the future preferences of others. We used a perspective-taking task in which we asked young people how much they liked stereotypically young-person items (e.g., Top 40 music, adventure vacations) and stereotypically old-person items (e.g., jazz, playing bridge) now, and how much they would like them in the distant future (i.e., when they are 70 years old). Participants also made these same predictions for a generic same-age, same-sex peer. In a third condition, participants predicted how much a generic older (i.e., age 70) same-sex adult would like items from both categories today. Participants predicted less change between their own current and future preferences than between the current and future preferences of a peer. However, participants estimated that, compared to a current older adult today, their peer would like stereotypically young items more in the future and stereotypically old items less. The fact that peers' distant-future estimated preferences were different from the ones they made for "current" older adults suggests that even though underestimation of change of preferences over time is attenuated when thinking about others, a bias still exists.

Linear zonal atmospheric prediction for adaptive optics

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Patrick C.; Rhoadarmer, Troy A.; Coy, Hanna A.; Angel, J. Roger P.; Lloyd-Hart, Michael

2000-07-01

We compare linear zonal predictors of atmospheric turbulence for adaptive optics. Zonal prediction has the possible advantage of being able to interpret and utilize wind-velocity information from the wavefront sensor better than modal prediction. For simulated open-loop atmospheric data for a 2- meter 16-subaperture AO telescope with 5 millisecond prediction and a lookback of 4 slope-vectors, we find that Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule training of linear nets and Back- Propagation training of non-linear multilayer neural networks is quite slow, getting stuck on plateaus or in local minima. Recursive Least Squares training of linear predictors is two orders of magnitude faster and it also converges to the solution with global minimum error. We have successfully implemented Amari's Adaptive Natural Gradient Learning (ANGL) technique for a linear zonal predictor, which premultiplies the Delta-Rule gradients with a matrix that orthogonalizes the parameter space and speeds up the training by two orders of magnitude, like the Recursive Least Squares predictor. This shows that the simple Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule's slow convergence is not a fluke. In the case of bright guidestars, the ANGL, RLS, and standard matrix-inversion least-squares (MILS) algorithms all converge to the same global minimum linear total phase error (approximately 0.18 rad2), which is only approximately 5% higher than the spatial phase error (approximately 0.17 rad2), and is approximately 33% lower than the total 'naive' phase error without prediction (approximately 0.27 rad2). ANGL can, in principle, also be extended to make non-linear neural network training feasible for these large networks, with the potential to lower the predictor error below the linear predictor error. We will soon scale our linear work to the approximately 108-subaperture MMT AO system, both with simulations and real wavefront sensor data from prime focus.

Freeform Optics: current challenges for future serial production

Science.gov (United States)

Schindler, C.; Köhler, T.; Roth, E.

2017-10-01

One of the major developments in optics industry recently is the commercial manufacturing of freeform surfaces for optical mid- and high performance systems. The loss of limitation on rotational symmetry enables completely new optical design solutions - but causes completely new challenges for the manufacturer too. Adapting the serial production from radial-symmetric to freeform optics cannot be done just by the extension of machine capabilities and software for every process step. New solutions for conventional optics productions or completely new process chains are necessary.

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data transmission optical link for LLRF TESLA project part II: application for BER measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Pozniak, Krzysztof T.; Romaniuk, Ryszard S.; Jalmuzna, Wojciech; Olowski, Krzysztof; Perkuszewski, Karol; Zielinski, Jerzy; Kierzkowski, Krzysztof

2006-02-01

It may be predicted now, even assuming a very conservative approach, that the next generation of the Low Level RF control systems for future accelerators will use extensively such technologies like: very fast programmable circuits equipped with DSP, embedded PC and optical communication I/O functionalities, as well as multi-gigabit optical transmission of measurement data and control signals.

Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaboche, J.L.

1987-01-01

The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

2007-09-01

This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain levels predict visual outcome after optic neuritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, Signe; Degn, M; Sander, B

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis is a good model for multiple sclerosis relapse, but currently no tests can accurately predict visual outcome. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of tissue damage and remodelling (neurofilament light chain (NF......-L, β=-1.1, p=0.0150 for GC-IPL). Complete/incomplete remission was determined based on LCVA from 30 healthy controls. NF-L had a positive predictive value of 91% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 for incomplete remission. CONCLUSION: CSF NF-L is a promising biomarker of visual outcome after...

FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

2015-02-01

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Fiber Optics: A Bright Future.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, James, Jr.

1980-01-01

Presents an overview of the impact of fiber optics on telecommunications and its application to information processing and library services, including information retrieval, news services, remote transmission of library services, and library networking. (RAA)

New organic materials for optics: optical storage and nonlinear optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, F.

1996-01-01

New organic materials have received considerable attention recently, due to their easy preparation and different variety. The most application fields in optics are optical storage and nonlinear optics. In optical storage the organic dyes have been used for example, in record able and erasable compact disks (CD-R, CD-E) nonlinear optical effects, such as nonlinear optical absorption, second and third order optical absorption, second and third order optical nonlinearities, can be applied for making optical limiters, optical modulators, as well as laser second and third harmonic generations. Due to high value of optical absorption and optical nonlinearity organic materials are always used as thin films in optical integration. In this paper the new experimental results have been presented, and future development has been also discussed. (author)

X-Ray Optics: Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, William W.

2010-01-01

X-ray astronomy started with a small collimated proportional counter atop a rocket in the early 1960s. It was immediately recognized that focusing X-ray optics would drastically improve both source location accuracy and source detection sensitivity. In the past 5 decades, X-ray astronomy has made significant strides in achieving better angular resolution, large photon collection area, and better spectral and timing resolutions, culminating in the three currently operating X-ray observatories: Chandra, XMM/Newton, and Suzaku. In this talk I will give a brief history of X-ray optics, concentrating on the characteristics of the optics of these three observatories. Then I will discuss current X-ray mirror technologies being developed in several institutions. I will end with a discussion of the optics for the International X-ray Observatory that I have been developing at Goddard Space Flight Center.

On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Hargreaves

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

Optical models of the human eye.

Science.gov (United States)

Atchison, David A; Thibos, Larry N

2016-03-01

Optical models of the human eye have been used in visual science for purposes such as providing a framework for explaining optical phenomena in vision, for predicting how refraction and aberrations are affected by change in ocular biometry and as computational tools for exploring the limitations imposed on vision by the optical system of the eye. We address the issue of what is understood by optical model eyes, discussing the 'encyclopaedia' and 'toy train' approaches to modelling. An extensive list of purposes of models is provided. We discuss many of the theoretical types of optical models (also schematic eyes) of varying anatomical accuracy, including single, three and four refracting surface variants. We cover the models with lens structure in the form of nested shells and gradient index. Many optical eye models give accurate predictions only for small angles and small fields of view. If aberrations and image quality are important to consider, such 'paraxial' model eyes must be replaced by 'finite model' eyes incorporating features such as aspheric surfaces, tilts and decentrations, wavelength-dependent media and curved retinas. Many optical model eyes are population averages and must become adaptable to account for age, gender, ethnicity, refractive error and accommodation. They can also be customised for the individual when extensive ocular biometry and optical performance data are available. We consider which optical model should be used for a particular purpose, adhering to the principle that the best model is the simplest fit for the task. We provide a glimpse into the future of optical models of the human eye. This review is interwoven with historical developments, highlighting the important people who have contributed so richly to our understanding of visual optics. © 2016 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Optometry © 2016 Optometry Australia.

Prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

Science.gov (United States)

Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Lee, Hyung Joo; Kostinski, Alex; Kotlov, Tanya; Koutrakis, Petros

2012-09-01

Although ground-level PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm) monitoring sites provide accurate measurements, their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. Satellite data expand spatial coverage, enhancing our ability to estimate location- and/or subject-specific exposures to PM2.5. In this study, the authors apply a mixed-effects model approach to aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to predict PM2.5 concentrations within the New England area of the United States. With this approach, it is possible to control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles, and ground surface reflectance. The model-predicted PM2.5 mass concentration are highly correlated with the actual observations, R2 = 0.92. Therefore, adjustment for the daily variability in AOD-PM2.5 relationship allows obtaining spatially resolved PM2.5 concentration data that can be of great value to future exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. The authors demonstrated how AOD can be used reliably to predict daily PM2.5 mass concentrations, providing determination of their spatial and temporal variability. Promising results are found by adjusting for daily variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, without the need to account for a wide variety of individual additional parameters. This approach is of a great potential to investigate the associations between subject-specific exposures to PM2.5 and their health effects. Higher 4 x 4-km resolution GOES AOD retrievals comparing with the conventional MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 10-km product has the potential to capture PM2.5 variability within the urban domain.

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

Toxicogenomic multigene biomarker for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury in rats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minowa, Yohsuke; Kondo, Chiaki; Uehara, Takeki; Morikawa, Yuji; Okuno, Yasushi; Nakatsu, Noriyuki; Ono, Atsushi; Maruyama, Toshiyuki; Kato, Ikuo; Yamate, Jyoji; Yamada, Hiroshi; Ohno, Yasuo; Urushidani, Tetsuro

2012-01-01

Drug-induced renal tubular injury is a major concern in the preclinical safety evaluation of drug candidates. Toxicogenomics is now a generally accepted tool for identifying chemicals with potential safety problems. The specific aim of the present study was to develop a model for use in predicting the future onset of drug-induced proximal tubular injury following repeated dosing with various nephrotoxicants. In total, 41 nephrotoxic and nonnephrotoxic compounds were used for the present analysis. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed orally or intravenously once daily. Animals were exposed to three different doses (low, middle, and high) of each compound, and kidney tissue was collected at 3, 6, 9, and 24 h after single dosing, and on days 4, 8, 15, and 29 after repeated dosing. Gene expression profiles were generated from kidney total RNA using Affymetrix DNA microarrays. Filter-type gene selection and linear classification algorithms were employed to discriminate future onset of proximal tubular injury. We identified genomic biomarkers for use in future onset prediction using the gene expression profiles determined on day 1, when most of the nephrotoxicants had yet to produce detectable histopathological changes. The model was evaluated using a five-fold cross validation, and achieved a sensitivity of 93% and selectivity of 90% with 19 probes. We also found that the prediction accuracy of the optimized model was substantially higher than that produced by any of the single genomic biomarkers or histopathology. The genes included in our model were primarily involved in DNA replication, cell cycle control, apoptosis, and responses to oxidative stress and chemical stimuli. In summary, our toxicogenomic model is particularly useful for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury.

All-optical signal processing for optical packet switching networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Y.; Hill, M.T.; Calabretta, N.; Tangdiongga, E.; Geldenhuys, R.; Zhang, S.; Li, Z.; Waardt, de H.; Khoe, G.D.; Dorren, H.J.S.; Iftekharuddin, K.M.; awwal, A.A.S.

2005-01-01

We discuss how all-optical signal processing might play a role in future all-optical packet switched networks. We introduce a concept of optical packet switches that employ entirely all-optical signal processing technology. The optical packet switch is made out of three functional blocks: the

Integrating optical, mechanical, and test software (with applications to freeform optics)

Science.gov (United States)

Genberg, Victor; Michels, Gregory; Myer, Brian

2017-10-01

Optical systems must perform under environmental conditions including thermal and mechanical loading. To predict the performance in the field, integrated analysis combining optical and mechanical software is required. Freeform and conformal optics offer many new opportunities for optical design. The unconventional geometries can lead to unconventional, and therefore unintuitive, mechanical behavior. Finite element (FE) analysis offers the ability to predict the deformations of freeform optics under various environments and load conditions. To understand the impact on optical performance, the deformations must be brought into optical analysis codes. This paper discusses several issues related to the integrated optomechanical analysis of freeform optics.

Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

2007-10-01

To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

Spin-dependent optics with metasurfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Shiyi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Optical spin-Hall effect (OSHE is a spin-dependent transportation phenomenon of light as an analogy to its counterpart in condensed matter physics. Although being predicted and observed for decades, this effect has recently attracted enormous interests due to the development of metamaterials and metasurfaces, which can provide us tailor-made control of the light-matter interaction and spin-orbit interaction. In parallel to the developments of OSHE, metasurface gives us opportunities to manipulate OSHE in achieving a stronger response, a higher efficiency, a higher resolution, or more degrees of freedom in controlling the wave front. Here, we give an overview of the OSHE based on metasurface-enabled geometric phases in different kinds of configurational spaces and their applications on spin-dependent beam steering, focusing, holograms, structured light generation, and detection. These developments mark the beginning of a new era of spin-enabled optics for future optical components.

Updates on the optics of the future hadron-hadron collider FCC-hh

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2093721; Boutin, David Jean Henri; Dalena, Barbara; Holzer, Bernhard; Langner, Andy Sven; Schulte, Daniel

2017-01-01

The FCC-hh (Future Hadron-Hadron Circular Collider) is one of the three options considered for the next generation accelerator in high-energy physics as recommended by the European Strategy Group. The layout of FCC-hh has been optimized to a more compact design following recommendations from civil engineering aspects. The updates on the first order and second order optics of the ring will be shown for collisions at the required centre-of-mass energy of 100 TeV. Special emphasis is put on the dispersion suppressors and general beam cleaning sections as well as first considerations of injection and extraction sections.

An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

2017-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

2014-01-01

Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

1992-12-01

Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

FIBER OPTICS: Fibre optics: Forty years later

Science.gov (United States)

Dianov, Evgenii M.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a brief overview of the state of the art in fibre optics and its main applications: optical fibre communications, fibre lasers and fibre sensors for various physical property measurements. The future of fibre optics and the status of this important area of the modern technology in Russia are discussed.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

2012-06-01

This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

The role of surface topography in predicting scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehn, V.; Jones, V.O.; Elson, J.M.; Bennett, J.M.

1980-01-01

Monochromator design and the design of optical experiments at XUV and X-ray wavelengths are frequently limited by scattering from optical components, yet theoretical treatments are few and untested experimentally. This is partly due to the failure of scattering models used in the visible and near UV when the wavelength becomes comparable to, or smaller than, the topographic features on the surface, and partly it is due to the difficulty in measuring the topography on the required size scale. We briefly review the theoretical problems and prospects for accurately predicting both the magnitude and angular distribution of scattering at grazing incidence from optical surfaces. Experimental methods for determining and representing the surface topography are also reviewed, together with their limitations and ranges of applicability. Finally, the first results of our experiments, conducted recently at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory on the angular distribution of scattering by surfaces of known topography are presented and discussed, along with their potential implications for the theory of scattering, and for XUV and X-ray optical components. (orig.)

Optical interference coatings for optics and photonics [Invited].

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Cheng-Chung

2013-01-01

Optical interference coatings play as an important role in the progress in optics and photonics. In this article we give a minireview of the evolution of optical interference coatings from the theory, the design, to the manufacture. Some interesting but challenging topics for the future are also discussed.

Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

2017-12-01

Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

2016-04-12

A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model. © The Author(s) 2016.

Fiber optic sensors current status and future possibilities

CERN Document Server

Ikezawa, Satoshi; Corres, Jesus

2017-01-01

This book describes important recent developments in fiber optic sensor technology and examines established and emerging applications in a broad range of fields and markets, including power engineering, chemical engineering, bioengineering, biomedical engineering, and environmental monitoring. Particular attention is devoted to niche applications where fiber optic sensors are or soon will be able to compete with conventional approaches. Beyond novel methods for the sensing of traditional parameters such as strain, temperature, and pressure, a variety of new ideas and concepts are proposed and explored. The significance of the advent of extended infrared sensors is discussed, and individual chapters focus on sensing at THz frequencies and optical sensing based on photonic crystal structures. Another important topic is the resonances generated when using thin films in conjunction with optical fibers, and the enormous potential of sensors based on lossy mode resonances, surface plasmon resonances, and long-range...

Computer-Controlled Cylindrical Polishing Process for Development of Grazing Incidence Optics for Hard X-Ray Region

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Gufran Sayeed; Gubarev, Mikhail; Speegle, Chet; Ramsey, Brian

2010-01-01

The presentation includes grazing incidence X-ray optics, motivation and challenges, mid spatial frequency generation in cylindrical polishing, design considerations for polishing lap, simulation studies and experimental results, future scope, and summary. Topics include current status of replication optics technology, cylindrical polishing process using large size polishing lap, non-conformance of polishin lap to the optics, development of software and polishing machine, deterministic prediction of polishing, polishing experiment under optimum conditions, and polishing experiment based on known error profile. Future plans include determination of non-uniformity in the polishing lap compliance, development of a polishing sequence based on a known error profile of the specimen, software for generating a mandrel polishing sequence, design an development of a flexible polishing lap, and computer controlled localized polishing process.

Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

2017-12-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

Silicon pore optics for future x-ray telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Wille, Eric; Bavdaz, Marcos; Wallace, Kotska; Shortt, Brian; Collon, Maximilien; Ackermann, Marcelo; Günther, Ramses; Olde Riekerink, Mark; Koelewijn, Arenda; Haneveld, Jeroen; van Baren, Coen; Erhard, Markus; Kampf, Dirk; Christensen, Finn; Krumrey, Michael; Freyberg, Michael; Burwitz, Vadim

2017-11-01

Lightweight X-ray Wolter optics with a high angular resolution will enable the next generation of X-ray telescopes in space. The candidate mission ATHENA (Advanced Telescope for High Energy Astrophysics) required a mirror assembly of 1 m2 effective area (at 1 keV) and an angular resolution of 10 arcsec or better. These specifications can only be achieved with a novel technology like Silicon Pore Optics, which is being developed by ESA together with a consortium of European industry. Silicon Pore Optics are made of commercial Si wafers using process technology adapted from the semiconductor industry. We present the recent upgrades made to the manufacturing processes and equipment, ranging from the manufacture of single mirror plates towards complete focusing mirror modules mounted in flight configuration, and results from first vibration tests. The performance of the mirror modules is tested at X-ray facilities that were recently extended to measure optics at a focal distance up to 20 m.

Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2015-05-01

Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Cates, Grant R.

2014-01-01

The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

Predicting the future impact of droughts on ungulate populations in arid and semi-arid environments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare Duncan

Full Text Available Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21(st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Clifford

2014-12-01

Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

2010-01-01

Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

Predicting Future High-Cost Schizophrenia Patients Using High-Dimensional Administrative Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajuan Wang

2017-06-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe burden of serious and persistent mental illness such as schizophrenia is substantial and requires health-care organizations to have adequate risk adjustment models to effectively allocate their resources to managing patients who are at the greatest risk. Currently available models underestimate health-care costs for those with mental or behavioral health conditions.ObjectivesThe study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive models for identification of future high-cost schizophrenia patients using advanced supervised machine learning methods.MethodsThis was a retrospective study using a payer administrative database. The study cohort consisted of 97,862 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD9 code 295.* from January 2009 to June 2014. Training (n = 34,510 and study evaluation (n = 30,077 cohorts were derived based on 12-month observation and prediction windows (PWs. The target was average total cost/patient/month in the PW. Three models (baseline, intermediate, final were developed to assess the value of different variable categories for cost prediction (demographics, coverage, cost, health-care utilization, antipsychotic medication usage, and clinical conditions. Scalable orthogonal regression, significant attribute selection in high dimensions method, and random forests regression were used to develop the models. The trained models were assessed in the evaluation cohort using the regression R2, patient classification accuracy (PCA, and cost accuracy (CA. The model performance was compared to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC model.ResultsAt top 10% cost cutoff, the final model achieved 0.23 R2, 43% PCA, and 63% CA; in contrast, the CMS-HCC model achieved 0.09 R2, 27% PCA with 45% CA. The final model and the CMS-HCC model identified 33 and 22%, respectively, of total cost at the top 10% cost cutoff.ConclusionUsing advanced feature selection leveraging detailed

Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

1994-12-01

A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

Dynamic Optical Networks for Future Internet Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Matera, Francesco

2014-05-01

This article reports an overview on the evolution of the optical network scenario taking into account the exponential growth of connected devices, big data, and cloud computing that is driving a concrete transformation impacting the information and communication technology world. This hyper-connected scenario is deeply affecting relationships between individuals, enterprises, citizens, and public administrations, fostering innovative use cases in practically any environment and market, and introducing new opportunities and new challenges. The successful realization of this hyper-connected scenario depends on different elements of the ecosystem. In particular, it builds on connectivity and functionalities allowed by converged next-generation networks and their capacity to support and integrate with the Internet of Things, machine-to-machine, and cloud computing. This article aims at providing some hints of this scenario to contribute to analyze impacts on optical system and network issues and requirements. In particular, the role of the software-defined network is investigated by taking into account all scenarios regarding data centers, cloud computing, and machine-to-machine and trying to illustrate all the advantages that could be introduced by advanced optical communications.

Recent results and future plans for a 45 actuator adaptive x-ray optics experiment at the advanced light source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brejnholt, Nicolai F., E-mail: brejnholt1@llnl.gov; Poyneer, Lisa A.; Hill, Randal M.; Pardini, Tommaso; Hagler, Lisle; Jackson, Jessie; Jeon, Jae; McCarville, Thomas J.; Palmer, David W. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); Celestre, Richard [Advanced Light Source - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California (United States); Brooks, Audrey D. [Northrop Grumman - AOA Xinetics Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States)

2016-07-27

We report on the current status of the Adaptive X-ray Optics project run by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). LLNL is collaborating with the Advanced Light Source (ALS) to demonstrate a near real-time adaptive X-ray optic. To this end, a custom-built 45 cm long deformable mirror has been installed at ALS beamline 5.3.1 (end station 2) for a two-year period that started in September 2014. We will outline general aspects of the instrument, present results from a recent experimental campaign and touch on future plans for the project.

Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

Science.gov (United States)

Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

2014-01-01

A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

Statistical learning methods for aero-optic wavefront prediction and adaptive-optic latency compensation

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, W. Robert

Since the early 1970's research in airborne laser systems has been the subject of continued interest. Airborne laser applications depend on being able to propagate a near diffraction-limited laser beam from an airborne platform. Turbulent air flowing over the aircraft produces density fluctuations through which the beam must propagate. Because the index of refraction of the air is directly related to the density, the turbulent flow imposes aberrations on the beam passing through it. This problem is referred to as Aero-Optics. Aero-Optics is recognized as a major technical issue that needs to be solved before airborne optical systems can become routinely fielded. This dissertation research specifically addresses an approach to mitigating the deleterious effects imposed on an airborne optical system by aero-optics. A promising technology is adaptive optics: a feedback control method that measures optical aberrations and imprints the conjugate aberrations onto an outgoing beam. The challenge is that it is a computationally-difficult problem, since aero-optic disturbances are on the order of kilohertz for practical applications. High control loop frequencies and high disturbance frequencies mean that adaptive-optic systems are sensitive to latency in sensors, mirrors, amplifiers, and computation. These latencies build up to result in a dramatic reduction in the system's effective bandwidth. This work presents two variations of an algorithm that uses model reduction and data-driven predictors to estimate the evolution of measured wavefronts over a short temporal horizon and thus compensate for feedback latency. The efficacy of the two methods are compared in this research, and evaluated against similar algorithms that have been previously developed. The best version achieved over 75% disturbance rejection in simulation in the most optically active flow region in the wake of a turret, considerably outperforming conventional approaches. The algorithm is shown to be

Development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. Current status and future subjects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Yasunori; Kusunoki, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Ikuo; Yanagi, Chihiro; Kinoshita, Ikuo; Iwasaki, Yoshito

2014-01-01

Nuclear licensees are required to maintain a prediction system during normal condition for using a nuclear emergency by the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention of government. With prediction of the incident progress, if the present condition of nuclear power plant is understood appropriately and it grows more serious with keeping the present situation, it is in predicting what kind of situation will be occurred in the near future, choosing the effective countermeasures against the coming threat, and understanding the time available of intervention time. Following the accident on September 30 1999 in the nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Tokai Village of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Institute of Nuclear Safety System started development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. We have performed technical applications and made improvements in nuclear emergency exercises and verified the developed systems using the observed values of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. As a result, our developed Incident Progress Prediction System was applied to nuclear emergency exercises and we accumulated knowledge and experience by which we improved the system to make predictions more rapidly and more precisely, including for example, the development of a prediction method for leak size of reactor coolant. On the other hand, if a rapidly progressing incident occurs, since end users need simple and quick predictions about the public's protection and evacuation areas, we developed the Radioactive Materials Release, Radiation Dose and Radiological Protection Area Prediction System which changed solving an inverse problem into a forward problem solution. In view of the water-level-decline incident of the spent fuel storage facility at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the spent fuel storage facility water level and the water temperature evaluation tool were improved. Such incident progress prediction technologies were

Designing Optical Properties in DNA-Programmed Nanoparticle Superlattices

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Michael Brendan

can be used to influence the properties of mesoscale single crystal superlattices, such that they exhibit either plasmonic absorption or photonic scattering. This concept is generalized through simulation, which demonstrates that the crystal habit (size, shape, and morphology) is a powerful design parameter for optical properties in mesoscale nanoparticle assemblies. Finally, chapter 7 summarizes these data and their impact, and puts them in context regarding future opportunities. This work presents a comprehensive demonstration that the optical properties of nanoparticle-based architectures can be precisely controlled and deliberately designed a priori using the unique programmability of DNA and the use of several levels of predictive electromagnetic theory.

Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

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McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

2011-08-01

Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction intervals for future BMI values of individual children - a non-parametric approach by quantile boosting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayr Andreas

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The construction of prediction intervals (PIs for future body mass index (BMI values of individual children based on a recent German birth cohort study with n = 2007 children is problematic for standard parametric approaches, as the BMI distribution in childhood is typically skewed depending on age. Methods We avoid distributional assumptions by directly modelling the borders of PIs by additive quantile regression, estimated by boosting. We point out the concept of conditional coverage to prove the accuracy of PIs. As conditional coverage can hardly be evaluated in practical applications, we conduct a simulation study before fitting child- and covariate-specific PIs for future BMI values and BMI patterns for the present data. Results The results of our simulation study suggest that PIs fitted by quantile boosting cover future observations with the predefined coverage probability and outperform the benchmark approach. For the prediction of future BMI values, quantile boosting automatically selects informative covariates and adapts to the age-specific skewness of the BMI distribution. The lengths of the estimated PIs are child-specific and increase, as expected, with the age of the child. Conclusions Quantile boosting is a promising approach to construct PIs with correct conditional coverage in a non-parametric way. It is in particular suitable for the prediction of BMI patterns depending on covariates, since it provides an interpretable predictor structure, inherent variable selection properties and can even account for longitudinal data structures.

Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

2013-01-01

People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

Enhancing performance of next generation FSO communication systems using soft computing-based predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazaura, Kamugisha; Omae, Kazunori; Suzuki, Toshiji; Matsumoto, Mitsuji; Mutafungwa, Edward; Korhonen, Timo O; Murakami, Tadaaki; Takahashi, Koichi; Matsumoto, Hideki; Wakamori, Kazuhiko; Arimoto, Yoshinori

2006-06-12

The deterioration and deformation of a free-space optical beam wave-front as it propagates through the atmosphere can reduce the link availability and may introduce burst errors thus degrading the performance of the system. We investigate the suitability of utilizing soft-computing (SC) based tools for improving performance of free-space optical (FSO) communications systems. The SC based tools are used for the prediction of key parameters of a FSO communications system. Measured data collected from an experimental FSO communication system is used as training and testing data for a proposed multi-layer neural network predictor (MNNP) used to predict future parameter values. The predicted parameters are essential for reducing transmission errors by improving the antenna's accuracy of tracking data beams. This is particularly essential for periods considered to be of strong atmospheric turbulence. The parameter values predicted using the proposed tool show acceptable conformity with original measurements.

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

Science.gov (United States)

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bayden D Russell

Full Text Available The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter Sea Surface Temperature (SST as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

Comparison of intraocular lens power prediction using immersion ultrasound and optical biometry with and without formula optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Gabor; Nagy, Attila; Berta, Andras; Modis, Laszlo

2012-09-01

Comparison of postoperative refraction results using ultrasound biometry with closed immersion shell and optical biometry. Three hundred and sixty-four eyes of 306 patients (age: 70.6 ± 12.8 years) underwent cataract surgery where intraocular lenses calculated by SRK/T formula were implanted. In 159 cases immersion ultrasonic biometry, in 205 eyes optical biometry was used. Differences between predicted and actual postoperative refractions were calculated both prior to and after optimization with the SRK/T formula, after which we analysed the similar data in the case of Holladay, Haigis, and Hoffer-Q formulas. Mean absolute error (MAE) and the percentage rate of patients within ±0.5 and ±1.0 D difference in the predicted error were calculated with these four formulas. MAE was 0.5-0.7 D in cases of both methods with SRK/T, Holladay, and Hoffer-Q formula, but higher with Haigis formula. With no optimization, 60-65 % of the patients were under 0.5 D error in the immersion group (except for Haigis formula). Using the optical method, this value was slightly higher (62-67 %), however, in this case, Haigis formula also did not perform so well (45 %). Refraction results significantly improved with Holladay, Hoffer-Q, and Haigis formulas in both groups. The rate of patients under 0.5 D error increased to 65 % by the immersion technique, and up to 80 % by the optical one. According to our results, optical biometry offers only slightly better outcomes compared to those of immersion shell with no optimized formulas. However, in case of new generation formulas with both methods, the optimization of IOL-constants give significantly better results.

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

This time it is different! Or not? : Discounting past data when predicting the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); E. Janssens (Eva)

2017-01-01

textabstractWe employ a simple method based on logistic weighted least squares to diagnose which past data are less or more useful for predicting the future course of a variable. A simulation experiment shows its merits. An illustration for monthly industrial production series for 17 countries

What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinrichs, Bert

2005-01-01

Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

2011-10-01

Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (Precall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

Science.gov (United States)

FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

2017-01-01

Model predictive control is seen as one of the key future enabler in increasing energy efficiency in buildings. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the control for different formulations of the objective function. This comparison is made in a simulation study on a single buildi...

Predicting the future development of depression or PTSD after injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Richmond, Therese S; Ruzek, Josef; Ackerson, Theimann; Wiebe, Douglas J; Winston, Flaura; Kassam-Adams, Nancy

2011-01-01

The objective was to develop a predictive screener that when given soon after injury will accurately differentiate those who will later develop depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from those who will not. This study used a prospective, longitudinal cohort design. Subjects were randomly selected from all injured patients in the emergency department; the majority was assessed within 1 week postinjury with a short predictive screener, followed with in-person interviews after 3 and 6 months to determine the emergence of depression or PTSD within 6 months after injury. A total of 192 completed a risk factor survey at baseline; 165 were assessed over 6 months. Twenty-six subjects [15.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.2-21.3] were diagnosed with depression, four (2.4%, 95% CI 0.7-5.9) with PTSD and one with both. The final eight-item predictive screener was derived; optimal cutoff scores were ≥2 (of 4) depression risk items and ≥3 (of 5) PTSD risk items. The final screener demonstrated excellent sensitivity and moderate specificity both for clinically significant symptoms and for the diagnoses of depression and PTSD. A simple screener that can help identify those patients at highest risk for future development of PTSD and depression postinjury allows the judicious allocation of costly mental health resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

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Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

2011-01-01

Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Monolithic InP-based fast optical switch module for optical networks of the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xi, Chen; Regan, James; Durrant, Tim

2015-01-01

We summarized the development of Venture Photonics’ sub-10 ns fast optical switch which demonstrates low insertion loss, excellent crosstalk level and polarization independent switching performance.......We summarized the development of Venture Photonics’ sub-10 ns fast optical switch which demonstrates low insertion loss, excellent crosstalk level and polarization independent switching performance....

Optics equations for aero-optical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, George W.; Pond, John E.

2011-05-01

Aero-optical effects occur around moving air vehicles and impact passive imaging or active systems. The air flow around the vehicle is compressed, and often there is a turbulent shear and/or boundary layer both of which cause variations in the index of refraction. Examples of these are reconnaissance aircraft, the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Optics (SOFIA), and optically homing hypersonic interceptors. In other applications, a laser beam can be formed within the vehicle, and projected outward and focused on an object. These include the Airborne Laser Laboratory, Airborne Laser and the Airborne Tactical Laser. There are many compressible fluid mechanics computer programs that can predict the air density distribution of the surrounding flow field including density fluctuations in turbulent shear and/or boundary layers. It is necessary for the physical optics to be used to predict the properties of the ensuing image plane intensity distribution, whether passive or active. These include the time-averaged image blur circle and instantaneous realizations. (Ray tracing is a poor approximation that gives erroneous results for small aberrations.)

Decisions among the undecided: implicit attitudes predict future voting behavior of undecided voters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristjen B Lundberg

Full Text Available Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.

Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grönwall, C.; Schwering, P.B.; Rantakokko, J.; Benoist, K.W.; Kemp, R.A.W.; Steinvall, O.; Letalick, D.; Björkert, S.

2013-01-01

In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement

Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Lakesh K; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W

2015-11-02

Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in "saturation" of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms.

Active-Optical Sensors Using Red NDVI Compared to Red Edge NDVI for Prediction of Corn Grain Yield in North Dakota, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Lakesh K.; Bu, Honggang; Denton, Anne; Franzen, David W.

2015-01-01

Active-optical sensor readings from an N non-limiting area standard established within a farm field are used to predict yield in the standard. Lower yield predictions from sensor readings obtained from other parts of the field outside of the N non-limiting standard area indicate a need for supplemental N. Active-optical sensor algorithms for predicting corn (Zea mays, L.) yield to direct in-season nitrogen (N) fertilization in corn utilize red NDVI (normalized differential vegetative index). Use of red edge NDVI might improve corn yield prediction at later growth stages when corn leaves cover the inter-row space resulting in “saturation” of red NDVI readings. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of red edge NDVI in two active-optical sensors (GreenSeeker™ and Holland Scientific Crop Circle™) improved corn yield prediction. Nitrogen rate experiments were established at 15 sites in North Dakota (ND). Sensor readings were conducted at V6 and V12 corn. Red NDVI and red edge NDVI were similar in the relationship of readings with yield at V6. At V12, the red edge NDVI was superior to the red NDVI in most comparisons, indicating that it would be most useful in developing late-season N application algorithms. PMID:26540057

Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future; Toxicologie predictive: les voies du futur

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N' Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A. [and others

2010-07-01

Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

Science.gov (United States)

Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

Deep lithography with protons Modelling and predicting the performances of a novel fabrication technology for micro-optical components

CERN Document Server

Volckaerts, B; Veretennicoff, I; Thienpont, H

2002-01-01

We developed a simulation package that predicts 3D-dose distributions in proton irradiated poly(methylmetacrylate) samples considering primary energy transfer and scattering phenomena. In this paper, we apply this code to predict the surface flatness and maximum thickness of micro-optical and mechanical structures fabricated with deep lithography with protons (DLP). We compare these simulation results with experimental data and highlight the fundamental differences between DLP and deep X-ray lithography.

Permeability of the blood-brain barrier predicts conversion from optic neuritis to multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cramer, Stig P; Modvig, Signe; Simonsen, Helle Juhl

2015-01-01

in the permeability of the blood-brain barrier in normal-appearing white matter of patients with multiple sclerosis and here, for the first time, we present a study on the capability of blood-brain barrier permeability in predicting conversion from optic neuritis to multiple sclerosis and a direct comparison...... with cerebrospinal fluid markers of inflammation, cellular trafficking and blood-brain barrier breakdown. To this end, we applied dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging at 3 T to measure blood-brain barrier permeability in 39 patients with monosymptomatic optic neuritis, all referred for imaging...... fluid as well as levels of CXCL10 and MMP9 in the cerebrospinal fluid. These findings suggest that blood-brain barrier permeability, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging, may provide novel pathological information as a marker of neuroinflammation related to multiple sclerosis, to some extent...

Silicon pore optics for future x-ray telescopes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wille, Eric; Bavdaz, Marcos; Wallace, Kotska

2017-01-01

arcsec or better. These specifications can only be achieved with a novel technology like Silicon Pore Optics, which is being developed by ESA together with a consortium of European industry. Silicon Pore Optics are made of commercial Si wafers using process technology adapted from the semiconductor...... industry. We present the recent upgrades made to the manufacturing processes and equipment, ranging from the manufacture of single mirror plates towards complete focusing mirror modules mounted in flight configuration, and results from first vibration tests. The performance of the mirror modules is tested...

Future Savvy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gordon, Adam

There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

2013-01-16

Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time.

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

OpenAIRE

A.M. Woodd

1999-01-01

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

CERN Document Server

Abarbanel, Henry

2013-01-01

Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronald de Vlaming

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii the computational feasibility, and (iv the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis. Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N<10,000 the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP. However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

Activity status and future plans for the Optical Laboratory of the National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Buisset, Christophe; Poshyachinda, Saran; Soonthornthum, Boonrucksar; Prasit, Apirat; Alagao, Mary Angelie; Choochalerm, Piyamas; Wanajaroen, Weerapot; Lepine, Thierry; Rabbia, Yves; Aukkaravittayapun, Suparerk; Leckngam, Apichat; Thummasorn, Griangsak; Ngernsujja, Surin; Inpan, Anuphong; Kaewsamoet, Pimon; Lhospice, Esther; Meemon, Panomsak; Artsang, Pornapa; Suwansukho, Kajpanya; Sirichote, Wichit; Paenoi, Jitsupa

2018-03-01

The National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (NARIT) has developed since June 2014 an optical laboratory that comprises all the activities and facilities related to the research and development of new instruments in the following areas: telescope design, high dynamic and high resolution imaging systems and spectrographs. The facilities include ZEMAX and Solidwork software for design and simulation activities as well as an optical room with all the equipment required to develop optical setup with cutting-edge performance. The current projects include: i) the development of a focal reducer for the 2.3 m Thai National Telescope (TNT), ii) the development of the Evanescent Wave Coronagraph dedicated to the high contrast observations of star close environment and iii) the development of low resolution spectrographs for the Thai National Telescope and for the 0.7 m telescopes of NARIT regional observatories. In each project, our activities start from the instrument optical and mechanical design to the simulation of the performance, the development of the prototype and finally to the final system integration, alignment and tests. Most of the mechanical parts are manufactured by using the facilities of NARIT precision mechanical workshop that includes a 3-axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) to machine the mechanical structures and a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) to verify the dimensions. In this paper, we give an overview of the optical laboratory activities and of the associated facilities. We also describe the objective of the current projects, present the specifications and the design of the instruments and establish the status of development and we present our future plans.

Freeform Optics for Optical Payloads with Reduced Size and Weight, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Future optical systems for NASA's low-cost missions such as CubeSat and other small-scale payloads are constrained by the traditional spherical form of optics. As...

Free-Space Optical Interconnect Employing VCSEL Diodes

Science.gov (United States)

Simons, Rainee N.; Savich, Gregory R.; Torres, Heidi

2009-01-01

Sensor signal processing is widely used on aircraft and spacecraft. The scheme employs multiple input/output nodes for data acquisition and CPU (central processing unit) nodes for data processing. To connect 110 nodes and CPU nodes, scalable interconnections such as backplanes are desired because the number of nodes depends on requirements of each mission. An optical backplane consisting of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs), VCSEL drivers, photodetectors, and transimpedance amplifiers is the preferred approach since it can handle several hundred megabits per second data throughput.The next generation of satellite-borne systems will require transceivers and processors that can handle several Gb/s of data. Optical interconnects have been praised for both their speed and functionality with hopes that light can relieve the electrical bottleneck predicted for the near future. Optoelectronic interconnects provide a factor of ten improvement over electrical interconnects.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

2012-01-01

For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

Treatment strategies for inherited optic neuropathies: past, present and future

OpenAIRE

Yu-Wai-Man, P; Votruba, M; Moore, A T; Chinnery, P F

2014-01-01

Bilateral visual loss secondary to inherited optic neuropathies is an important cause of registrable blindness among children and young adults. The two prototypal disorders seen in clinical practice are Leber hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA). About 90% of LHON cases are due to one of three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) point mutations: m.3460G>A, m.11778G>A, and m.14484T>C, which affect critical complex I subunits of the mitochondrial respiratory chain...

Neutrino Flux Prediction for the NuMI Beamline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aliaga Soplin, Leonidas [William-Mary Coll.

2016-01-01

The determination of the neutrino flux in any conventional neutrino beam presents a challenge for the current and future short and long baseline neutrino experiments. The uncertainties associated with the production and attenuation of the hadrons in the beamline materials along with those associated with the beam optics have a big effect in the flux spectrum knowledge. For experiments like MINERvA, understanding the flux is crucial since it enters directly into every neutrino-nucleus cross-sections measurements. The foundation of this work is predicting the neutrino flux at MINERvA using dedicated measurements of hadron production in hadron-nucleus collisions and incorporating in-situ MINERvA data that can provide additional constraints. This work also includes the prospect for predicting the flux at other detectors like the NOvA Near detector. The procedure and conclusions of this thesis will have a big impact on future hadron production experiments and on determining the fl ux for the upcoming DUNE experiment.

Neutrino Flux Prediction for the NuMI Beamline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soplin, Leonidas Aliaga [Coll. William and Mary

2016-01-01

The determination of the neutrino flux in any conventional neutrino beam presents a challenge for the current and future short and long baseline neutrino experiments. The uncertainties associated with the production and attenuation of the hadrons in the beamline materials along with those associated with the beam optics have a big effect in the flux spectrum knowledge. For experiments like MINERvA, understanding the flux is crucial since it enters directly into every neutrino-nucleus cross-sections measurements. The foundation of this work is predicting the neutrino flux at MINERvA using dedicated measurements of hadron production in hadron-nucleus collisions and incorporating in-situ MINERvA data that can provide additional constraints. This work also includes the prospect for predicting the flux at other detectors like the NOvA Near detector. The procedure and conclusions of this thesis will have a big impact on future hadron production experiments and on determining the flux for the upcoming DUNE experiment.

A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

The optical system of the proposed Chinese 12-m optical/infrared telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Ding-qiang; Liang, Ming; Yuan, Xiangyan; Bai, Hua; Cui, Xiangqun

2017-08-01

The lack of a large-aperture optical/infrared telescope has seriously affected the development of astronomy in China. In 2016, the authors published their concept study and suggestions for a 12-m telescope optical system. This article presents the authors' further research and some new results. Considering that this telescope should be a general-purpose telescope for a wide range of scientific goals and could be used for frontier scientific research in the future, the authors studied and designed a variety of 12-m telescope optical systems for comparison and final decision-making. In general, we still adopt our previous configuration, but the Nasmyth and prime-focus corrector systems have been greatly improved. In this article, the adaptive optics is given special attention. Ground-layer adaptive optics (GLAO) is adopted. It has a 14-arcmin field of view. The secondary mirror is used as the adaptive optical deformable mirror. Obviously, not all the optical systems in this telescope configuration will be used or constructed at the same stage. Some will be for the future and some are meant for research rather than for construction.

Usefulness of optic nerve ultrasound to predict clinical progression in multiple sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez Sánchez, S; Eichau Madueño, S; Rus Hidalgo, M; Domínguez Mayoral, A M; Vilches-Arenas, A; Navarro Mascarell, G; Izquierdo, G

2018-03-21

Progressive neuronal and axonal loss are considered the main causes of disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The disease frequently involves the visual system; the accessibility of the system for several functional and structural tests has made it a model for the in vivo study of MS pathogenesis. Orbital ultrasound is a non-invasive technique that enables various structures of the orbit, including the optic nerve, to be evaluated in real time. We conducted an observational, ambispective study of MS patients. Disease progression data were collected. Orbital ultrasound was performed on all patients, with power set according to the 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA) principle. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) data were also collected for those patients who underwent the procedure. Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS version 22.0. Disease progression was significantly correlated with ultrasound findings (P=.041 for the right eye and P=.037 for the left eye) and with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at the end of the follow-up period (P=.07 for the right eye and P=.043 for the left eye). No statistically significant differences were found with relation to relapses or other clinical variables. Ultrasound measurement of optic nerve diameter constitutes a useful, predictive factor for the evaluation of patients with MS. Smaller diameters are associated with poor clinical progression and greater disability (measured by EDSS). Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events?

Science.gov (United States)

Dunning, D; Story, A L

1991-10-01

Do depressed individuals make more realistic judgments than their nondepressed peers in real world settings? Depressed and nondepressed Ss in 2 studies were asked to make predictions about future actions and outcomes that might occur in their personal academic and social worlds. Both groups of Ss displayed overconfidence, that is, they overestimated the likelihood that their predictions would prove to be accurate. Of key importance, depressed Ss were less accurate in their predictions, and thus more overconfident, than their nondepressed counterparts. These differences arose because depressed Ss (a) were more likely to predict the occurrence of low base-rate events and (b) were less likely to be correct when they made optimistic predictions (i.e., stated that positive events would occur or that aversive outcomes would not). Discussion focuses on implications of these findings for the depressive realism hypothesis.

Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: extending the predictions to different years and different sites

Science.gov (United States)

Reggente, Matteo; Dillner, Ann M.; Takahama, Satoshi

2016-02-01

Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) are major components of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), which has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, climate change, and reduced visibility. Typically OC and EC concentrations are measured using thermal-optical methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) from samples collected on quartz filters. In this work, we estimate TOR OC and EC using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE Teflon) filters using partial least square regression (PLSR) calibrated to TOR OC and EC measurements for a wide range of samples. The proposed method can be integrated with analysis of routinely collected PTFE filter samples that, in addition to OC and EC concentrations, can concurrently provide information regarding the functional group composition of the organic aerosol. We have used the FT-IR absorbance spectra and TOR OC and EC concentrations collected in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network (USA). We used 526 samples collected in 2011 at seven sites to calibrate the models, and more than 2000 samples collected in 2013 at 17 sites to test the models. Samples from six sites are present both in the calibration and test sets. The calibrations produce accurate predictions both for samples collected at the same six sites present in the calibration set (R2 = 0.97 and R2 = 0.95 for OC and EC respectively), and for samples from 9 of the 11 sites not included in the calibration set (R2 = 0.96 and R2 = 0.91 for OC and EC respectively). Samples collected at the other two sites require a different calibration model to achieve accurate predictions. We also propose a method to anticipate the prediction error; we calculate the squared Mahalanobis distance in the feature space (scores determined by PLSR) between new spectra and spectra in the calibration set. The squared Mahalanobis distance provides a crude method for assessing the

Prediction of future asset prices

Science.gov (United States)

Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

2014-12-01

This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

2016-01-01

To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruno, John G

2015-04-16

Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

Through a glass darkly: predicting the future of radiation oncology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, Lester J.

1995-01-01

To position ourselves professionally for the inevitable transition to managed care demands serious self-appraisal. Like most procedural medical specialties, radiation oncology is currently ill prepared for a capitated system of payment. To prosper under capitation, we need to increase the utility of radiation therapy per unit cost. This can be achieved by making the following adaptive responses: (a) we must ensure that the needs of medical practice drive the use of costly technology and not vice versa; (b) we must subordinate firmly held beliefs and prejudices to solid scientific data and be prepared to modify our practice when more cost-effective alternatives exist; and (c) we must be increasingly conscious of outcome, not process, in deciding among treatment options; and (d) we must acknowledge the need to prioritize the use of finite resources so that the maximum effort is expended on those who have the most to gain from treatment. These changes will permit us to develop guidelines for appropriate use of radiation therapy, and to demonstrate the excellent value of the service we can provide, which is the ultimate key to success. Though the future may at times seem bleak, we can shape it with our actions: the best way to predict the future is to create it

A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

2010-10-01

This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

2016-09-01

This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Perspective and potential of smart optical materials

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sang H.; Duzik, Adam J.; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Park, Yeonjoon; Kim, Jaehwan; Ko, Hyun-U.; Kim, Hyun-Chan; Yun, Sungryul; Kyung, Ki-Uk

2017-09-01

The increasing requirements of hyperspectral imaging optics, electro/photo-chromic materials, negative refractive index metamaterial optics, and miniaturized optical components from micro-scale to quantum-scale optics have all contributed to new features and advancements in optics technology. Development of multifunctional capable optics has pushed the boundaries of optics into new fields that require new disciplines and materials to maximize the potential benefits. The purpose of this study is to understand and show the fundamental materials and fabrication technology for field-controlled spectrally active optics (referred to as smart optics) that are essential for future industrial, scientific, military, and space applications, such as membrane optics, filters, windows for sensors and probes, telescopes, spectroscopes, cameras, light valves, light switches, and flat-panel displays. The proposed smart optics are based on the Stark and Zeeman effects in materials tailored with quantum dot arrays and thin films made from readily polarizable materials via ferroelectricity or ferromagnetism. Bound excitonic states of organic crystals are also capable of optical adaptability, tunability, and reconfigurability. To show the benefits of smart optics, this paper reviews spectral characteristics of smart optical materials and device technology. Experiments testing the quantum-confined Stark effect, arising from rare earth element doping effects in semiconductors, and applied electric field effects on spectral and refractive index are discussed. Other bulk and dopant materials were also discovered to have the same aspect of shifts in spectrum and refractive index. Other efforts focus on materials for creating field-controlled spectrally smart active optics on a selected spectral range. Surface plasmon polariton transmission of light through apertures is also discussed, along with potential applications. New breakthroughs in micro scale multiple zone plate optics as a micro

Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

Science.gov (United States)

Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

2013-10-01

The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction.

Optical electronics self-organized integration and applications

CERN Document Server

Yoshimura, Tetsuzo

2012-01-01

IntroductionFrom Electronics to Optical ElectronicsAnalysis Tools for Optical CircuitsSelf-Organized Optical Waveguides: Theoretical AnalysisSelf-Organized Optical Waveguides: Experimental DemonstrationsOptical Waveguide Films with Vertical Mirrors 3-D Optical Circuits with Stacked Waveguide Films Heterogeneous Thin-Film Device IntegrationOptical Switches OE Hardware Built by Optical ElectronicsIntegrated Solar Energy Conversion SystemsFuture Challenges.

X-ray optics developments at ESA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bavdaz, M.; Wille, E.; Wallace, K.

2013-01-01

Future high energy astrophysics missions will require high performance novel X-ray optics to explore the Universe beyond the limits of the currently operating Chandra and Newton observatories. Innovative optics technologies are therefore being developed and matured by the European Space Agency (ESA......) in collaboration with research institutions and industry, enabling leading-edge future science missions. Silicon Pore Optics (SPO) [1 to 21] and Slumped Glass Optics (SGO) [22 to 29] are lightweight high performance X-ray optics technologies being developed in Europe, driven by applications in observatory class...... reflective coatings [30 to 35]. In addition, the progress with the X-ray test facilities and associated beam-lines is discussed [36]. © (2013) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only....

Optical Networks Solutions planning - performances - management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fenger, Christian

2002-01-01

It has been a decisive goal in the compilation of this thesis to make us capable of realizing the future national and regional telecommunication networks in an efficient and resource optimal way. By future telecommunication network is assumed an all optical network where the information in transit...... are kept optical and not converted into the optical domain. The focus is on the scientific results achieved throughout the Ph.D. period. Five subjects – all increasing the understanding of optical networks – are studied. Static wavelength routed optical networks are studied. Management on terms...... of lightpath allocation and design is considered. By using statistical models (simultaneous analysis of many networks) the correspondence between parameters determining the network topology and the performance of the optical network is found. These dependencies are important knowledge in the process...

Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout ( Salmo trutta )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, C.; Aarestrup, Kim; Norum, U.

2004-01-01

The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between......(-1)), with an average of 91 % of the predictions being correct. The present study shows that a non-lethal premigratory biochemical measurement can successfully select individual brown trout with high probability of migration...... was obtained. The ability of this regression model from the tributaries to predict future migratory behaviour in an independent group of trout caught in early April in the mainstream was evaluated. A threshold probability of migration was used to predict the behaviour of the mainstream individuals as either...

Machine learning techniques for optical communication system optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zibar, Darko; Wass, Jesper; Thrane, Jakob

In this paper, machine learning techniques relevant to optical communication are presented and discussed. The focus is on applying machine learning tools to optical performance monitoring and performance prediction.......In this paper, machine learning techniques relevant to optical communication are presented and discussed. The focus is on applying machine learning tools to optical performance monitoring and performance prediction....

50 years of nonlinear optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Yuanrang

2011-01-01

This article presents a brief introduction to the birth and early investigations of nonlinear optics, such as second harmonic generation,sum and difference frequency generation, stimulated Raman scattering,and self-action of light etc. Several important research achievements and applications of nonlinear optics are presented as well, including nonlinear optical spectroscopy, phase conjugation and adaptive optics, coherent nonlinear optics, and high-order harmonic generation. In the end, current and future research topics in nonlinear optics are summarized. (authors)

Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

2017-04-15

Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Alterations of Frontoparietal and Frontotemporal Networks Predict Future Creative Cognitive Ability.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qunlin; Beaty, Roger E; Wei, Dongtao; Yang, Junyi; Sun, Jiangzhou; Liu, Wei; Yang, Wenjing; Zhang, Qinglin; Qiu, Jiang

2018-01-01

Creative cognition is important to academic performance and career success during late adolescence and adulthood. However, there is a lack of longitudinal data on whether brain structural development could predict improvements in creative thinking, and how such changes interact with other cognitive abilities to support creative performance. Here we examined longitudinal alterations of brain structure and their relation to creative cognitive ability in a sample of 159 healthy young adults who were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging 2-3 times over the course of 3 years. The most robust predictor of future creative ability was the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), which in conjunction with baseline creative capacity showed a 31% prediction rate. Longitudinal analysis revealed that slower decreases in gray matter density within left frontoparietal and right frontotemporal clusters predicted enhanced creative ability. Moreoever, the relationship between longitudinal alterations within frontal-related clusters and improved creative ability was moderated by the right DLPFC and working memory ability. We conclude that continuous goal-directed planning and accumulated knowledge are implemented in the right DLPFC and temporal areas, respectively, which in turn support longitudinal gains in creative cognitive ability. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Atmospheric free-space coherent optical communications with adaptive optics

Science.gov (United States)

Ting, Chueh; Zhang, Chengyu; Yang, Zikai

2017-02-01

Free-space coherent optical communications have a potential application to offer last mile bottleneck solution in future local area networks (LAN) because of their information carrier, information security and license-free status. Coherent optical communication systems using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) digital modulation are successfully demonstrated in a long-haul tens Giga bits via optical fiber, but they are not yet available in free space due to atmospheric turbulence-induced channel fading. Adaptive optics is recognized as a promising technology to mitigate the effects of atmospheric turbulence in free-space optics. In this paper, a free-space coherent optical communication system using an OFDM digital modulation scheme and adaptive optics (FSO OFDM AO) is proposed, a Gamma-Gamma distribution statistical channel fading model for the FSO OFDM AO system is examined, and FSO OFDM AO system performance is evaluated in terms of bit error rate (BER) versus various propagation distances.

THEORETICAL EVOLUTION OF OPTICAL STRONG LINES ACROSS COSMIC TIME

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kewley, Lisa J.; Dopita, Michael A.; Sutherland, Ralph [Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Leitherer, Claus [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Dave, Romeel [Department of Astronomy/Steward Observatory, 933 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721-0065 (United States); Yuan, Tiantian [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Allen, Mark [Observatoire de Strasbourg, UMR 7550, Strasbourg 67000 (France); Groves, Brent, E-mail: kewley@mso.anu.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

2013-09-10

We use the chemical evolution predictions of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations with our latest theoretical stellar population synthesis, photoionization, and shock models to predict the strong line evolution of ensembles of galaxies from z = 3 to the present day. In this paper, we focus on the brightest optical emission-line ratios, [N II]/H{alpha} and [O III]/H{beta}. We use the optical diagnostic Baldwin-Phillips-Terlevich (BPT) diagram as a tool for investigating the spectral properties of ensembles of active galaxies. We use four redshift windows chosen to exploit new near-infrared multi-object spectrographs. We predict how the BPT diagram will appear in these four redshift windows given different sets of assumptions. We show that the position of star-forming galaxies on the BPT diagram traces the interstellar medium conditions and radiation field in galaxies at a given redshift. Galaxies containing active galactic nucleus (AGN) form a mixing sequence with purely star-forming galaxies. This mixing sequence may change dramatically with cosmic time, due to the metallicity sensitivity of the optical emission-lines. Furthermore, the position of the mixing sequence may probe metallicity gradients in galaxies as a function of redshift, depending on the size of the AGN narrow-line region. We apply our latest slow shock models for gas shocked by galactic-scale winds. We show that at high redshift, galactic wind shocks are clearly separated from AGN in line ratio space. Instead, shocks from galactic winds mimic high metallicity starburst galaxies. We discuss our models in the context of future large near-infrared spectroscopic surveys.

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Woodd

1999-07-01

Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Free space optics: a viable last-mile alternative

Science.gov (United States)

Willebrand, Heinz A.; Clark, Gerald R.

2001-10-01

This paper explores Free Space Optics (FSO) as an access technology in the last mile of metropolitan area networks (MANs). These networks are based in part on fiber-optic telecommunications infrastructure, including network architectures of Synchronous Optical Network (commonly referred to as SONET), the North American standard for synchronous data transmission; and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (commonly referred to as SDH), the international standard and equivalent of SONET. Several converging forces have moved FSO beyond a niche technology for use only in local area networks (LANs) as a bridge connecting two facilities. FSO now allows service providers to cost effectively provide optical bandwidth for access networks and accelerate the extension of metro optical networks bridging what has been termed by industry experts as the optical dead zone. The optical dead zone refers to both the slowdown in capital investment in the short-term future and the actual connectivity gap that exists today between core metro optical networks and the access optical networks. Service providers have built extensive core and minimal metro networks but have not yet provided optical bandwidth to the access market largely due to the non-compelling economics to bridge the dead zone with fiber. Historically, such infrastructure build-out slowdowns have been blamed on a combination of economics, time-to-market constraints and limited technology options. However, new technology developments and market acceptance of FSO give service providers a new cost-effective alternative to provide high-bandwidth services with optical bandwidth in the access networks. Merrill Lynch predicts FSO will grow into a $2 billion market by 2005. The drivers for this market are a mere 5%- 6% penetration of fiber to business buildings; cost effective solution versus RF or fiber; and significant capacity which can only be matched by a physical fiber link, Merrill Lynch reports. This paper will describe FSO

Optical actuation of micromechanical components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koehler, D.R.

1997-01-01

Electromagnetic momentum is a fundamental physical concept that has been demonstrated experimentally and incorporated theoretically in various areas of physics. In spite of the weak character of the electromagnetic momentum transfer process, the combination of latter-day, high-energy laser light sources and microminiature mechanical elements suggested the possibility of optical excitation of these structures. One outcome of the present theoretical analysis is the prediction of an optopiezic effect wherein electromagnetic momentum causes a mechanical stress on a dielectric layer. If this is a valid prediction, such an optically induced, expansional pressure effect could be utilized as an extensional optical-to-mechanical transduction means. copyright 1997 Optical Society of America

Quasi-optical gyrotron: present status and future prospect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tran, M.Q.

1989-01-01

A review of the main experiments on quasi-optical gyrotron is presented. Methods to improve the efficiency (pencil beam electron gun and depressed collector) will be discussed. (author) 5 figs., 1 tab., 10 refs

Laser startup optics for Baseball II and future mirror machines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, A.M.; Chargin, A.K.; Brown, N.J.

1975-01-01

The laser startup system for Baseball II-T uses a 300-J CO 2 laser to hit a 100-μ diameter pellet with a laser power density on the order of 10 13 W/cm 2 . The laser is a 20-cm diameter unstable resonator transversely excited (TEA) oscillator. The beam is split and then focused using off-axis parabolas. The symmetric configuration and central obscuration of the CO 2 beam allow coaxial alignment and pellet detection optics. This experiment primarily uses commercially available systems and components. Optical elements were fabricated both by direct machining and standard polishing techniques. The laser and optical systems are directly scalable to reactor requirements using demonstrated technologies

[The recent development of fiber-optic chemical sensor].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian; Wei, Jian-ping; Yang, Bo; Gao, Zhi-yang; Zhang, Li-wei; Yang, Xue-feng

2014-08-01

The present article provides a brief review of recent research on fiber-optic chemical sensor technology and the future development trends. Especially, fiber-optic pH chemical sensor, fiber-optic ion chemicl sensor, and fiber-optic gas chemical sensor are introduced respectively. Sensing film preparation methods such as chemical bonding method and sol-gel method were briefly reviewed. The emergence of new type fiber-microstructured optical fiber opened up a new development direction for fiber-optic chemical sensor. Because of its large inner surface area, flexible design of structure, having internal sensing places in fibers, it has rapidly become an important development direction and research focus of the fiber-optic chemical sensors. The fiber-optic chemical sensor derived from microstructured optical fiber is also discussed in detail. Finally, we look to the future of the fiber-optic chemical sensor.

Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Mazloumian

Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macdonald, Digby D. [Center for Electrochemical Science and Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Steidle Building, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Engelhardt, George [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States)

2004-07-01

The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macdonald, Digby D.; Engelhardt, George

2004-01-01

The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

Orbitofrontal cortex activity and connectivity predict future depression symptoms in adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Jingwen; Narayanan, Ananth; Perlman, Greg; Luking, Katherine; DeLorenzo, Christine; Hajcak, Greg; Klein, Daniel N; Kotov, Roman; Mohanty, Aprajita

2017-10-01

Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of disability worldwide; however, little is known about pathological mechanisms involved in its development. Research in adolescent depression has focused on reward sensitivity and striatal mechanisms implementing it. The contribution of loss sensitivity to future depression, as well as the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) mechanisms critical for processing losses and rewards, remain unexplored. Furthermore, it is unclear whether OFC functioning interacts with familial history in predicting future depression. In this longitudinal study we recorded functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while 229 adolescent females with or without parental history of depression completed a monetary gambling task. We examined if OFC blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) response and functional connectivity during loss and win feedback was associated with depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively (9 months later), and whether this relationship was moderated by parental history of depression. Reduced OFC response during loss was associated with higher depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively, even after controlling for concurrent depression, specifically in adolescents with parental history of depression. Similarly, increased OFC-posterior insula connectivity during loss was associated with future depression symptoms but this relationship was not moderated by parental history of depression. This study provides the first evidence for loss-related alterations in OFC functioning and its interaction with familial history of depression as possible mechanisms in the development of depression. While the current fMRI literature has mainly focused on reward, the present findings underscore the need to include prefrontal loss processing in existing developmental models of depression.

All optical OFDM transmission for passive optical networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kachare, Nitin; Ashik T., J.; Bai, K. Kalyani; Kumar, D. Sriram

2017-06-01

This paper demonstrates the idea of data transmission at a very higher rate (Tbits/s) through optical fibers in a passive optical network using the most efficient data transmission technique widely used in wireless communication that is orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. With an increase in internet users, data traffic has also increased significantly and the current dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) systems may not support the next generation passive optical networks (PONs) requirements. The approach discussed in this paper allows to increase the downstream data rate per user and extend the standard single-mode fiber reach for future long-haul applications. All-optical OFDM is a promising solution for terabit per second capable single wavelength transmission, with high spectral efficiency and high tolerance to chromatic dispersion.

Statistical analysis of accurate prediction of local atmospheric optical attenuation with a new model according to weather together with beam wandering compensation system: a season-wise experimental investigation

Science.gov (United States)

Arockia Bazil Raj, A.; Padmavathi, S.

2016-07-01

Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of Free Space Optical Communication (FSOC) system when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulent medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of optical attenuation according to meteorological parameters becomes significant to understand the behaviour of FSOC channel during different seasons. A dedicated free space optical link experimental set-up is developed for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. The diurnal profile of received power and corresponding meteorological parameters are continuously measured using the developed optoelectronic assembly and weather station, respectively, and stored in a data logging computer. Measured meteorological parameters (as input factors) and optical attenuation (as response factor) of size [177147 × 4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design the mathematical model that is more suitable to predict the atmospheric optical attenuation at our test field. A model that exhibits the R2 value of 98.76% and average percentage deviation of 1.59% is considered for practical implementation. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated along with the comparative results obtained from some of the existing models in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) during different local seasons in one-year period. The average RMSE value of 0.043-dB/km is obtained in the longer range dynamic of meteorological parameters variations.

Nonlinear Silicon Photonic Signal Processing Devices for Future Optical Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cosimo Lacava

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a review on silicon-based nonlinear devices for all optical nonlinear processing of complex telecommunication signals. We discuss some recent developments achieved by our research group, through extensive collaborations with academic partners across Europe, on optical signal processing using silicon-germanium and amorphous silicon based waveguides as well as novel materials such as silicon rich silicon nitride and tantalum pentoxide. We review the performance of four wave mixing wavelength conversion applied on complex signals such as Differential Phase Shift Keying (DPSK, Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK, 16-Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM and 64-QAM that dramatically enhance the telecom signal spectral efficiency, paving the way to next generation terabit all-optical networks.

Optics Supply Planning System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaylord, J.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to specify the design for an initial optics supply planning system for NIF, and to present quality assurance and test plans for the construction of the system as specified. The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a large laser facility that is just starting operations. Thousands of specialized optics are required to operate the laser, and must be exchanged over time based on the laser shot plan and predictions of damage. Careful planning and tracking of optic exchanges is necessary because of the tight inventory of spare optics, and the long lead times for optics procurements and production changes. Automated inventory forecasting and production planning tools are required to replace existing manual processes. The optics groups members who are expected to use the supply planning system are the stakeholders for this project, and are divided into three groups. Each of these groups participated in a requirements specification that was used to develop this design. (1) Optics Management--These are the top level stakeholdersk, and the final decision makers. This group is the interface to shot operations, is ultimately responsible for optics supply, and decides which exchanges will be made. (2) Work Center Managers--This group manages the on site optics processing work centers. They schedule the daily work center operations, and are responsible for developing long term processing, equipment, and staffing plans. (3) Component Engineers--This group manages the vendor contracts for the manufacture of new optics and the off site rework of existing optics. They are responsible for sourcing vendors, negotiating contracts, and managing vendor processes. The scope of this analysis is to describe the structure and design details of a system that will meet all requirements that were described by stakeholders and documented in the analysis model for this project. The design specifies the architecture, components, interfaces, and data stores of the system

Advanced optical instruments technology

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Mike; Chrisp, Michael; Cheng, Li-Jen; Eng, Sverre; Glavich, Thomas; Goad, Larry; Jones, Bill; Kaarat, Philip; Nein, Max; Robinson, William

1992-08-01

The science objectives for proposed NASA missions for the next decades push the state of the art in sensitivity and spatial resolution over a wide range of wavelengths, including the x-ray to the submillimeter. While some of the proposed missions are larger and more sensitive versions of familiar concepts, such as the next generation space telescope, others use concepts, common on the Earth, but new to space, such as optical interferometry, in order to provide spatial resolutions impossible with other concepts. However, despite their architecture, the performance of all of the proposed missions depends critically on the back-end instruments that process the collected energy to produce scientifically interesting outputs. The Advanced Optical Instruments Technology panel was chartered with defining technology development plans that would best improve optical instrument performance for future astrophysics missions. At this workshop the optical instrument was defined as the set of optical components that reimage the light from the telescope onto the detectors to provide information about the spatial, spectral, and polarization properties of the light. This definition was used to distinguish the optical instrument technology issues from those associated with the telescope, which were covered by a separate panel. The panel identified several areas for optical component technology development: diffraction gratings; tunable filters; interferometric beam combiners; optical materials; and fiber optics. The panel also determined that stray light suppression instruments, such as coronagraphs and nulling interferometers, were in need of general development to support future astrophysics needs.

Assessment of Spacecraft Operational Status Using Electro-Optical Predictive Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-01

panel appendages, may require enhanced preflight characterization processes to support monitoring by passive, remote, nonimaging optical sensors...observing and characterizing key spacecraft features. The simulation results are based on electro-optical signatures apparent to nonimaging sensors, along...and communication equipment, may require enhanced preflight characterization processes to support monitoring by passive, remote, nonimaging optical

Optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for 5G future broadband cellular communication networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costa, I.F. da; Spadoti, D. H.; Cerqueira Sodre Jr., Arismar

2017-01-01

This paper presents an optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for millimetre-wave frequency range. Silicon switches are used to control the optical reconfiguration, modifying the frequency response and radiation pattern of the antenna design. Therefore, the system can switch between the ligh......This paper presents an optically controlled reconfigurable antenna for millimetre-wave frequency range. Silicon switches are used to control the optical reconfiguration, modifying the frequency response and radiation pattern of the antenna design. Therefore, the system can switch between...

Overview of Fiber-Optical Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Depaula, Ramon P.; Moore, Emery L.

1987-01-01

Design, development, and sensitivity of sensors using fiber optics reviewed. State-of-the-art and probable future developments of sensors using fiber optics described in report including references to work in field. Serves to update previously published surveys. Systems incorporating fiber-optic sensors used in medical diagnosis, navigation, robotics, sonar, power industry, and industrial controls.

Evolution of optical fibre cabling components at CERN: Performance and technology trends analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Shoaie, Mohammad Amin; Meroli, Stefano; Machado, Simao; Ricci, Daniel

2018-05-01

CERN optical fibre infrastructure has been growing constantly over the past decade due to ever increasing connectivity demands. The provisioning plan and fibre installation of this vast laboratory is performed by Fibre Optics and Cabling Section at Engineering Department. In this paper we analyze the procurement data for essential fibre cabling components during a five-year interval to extract the existing trends and anticipate future directions. The analysis predicts high contribution of LC connector and an increasing usage of multi-fibre connectors. It is foreseen that single-mode fibres become the main fibre type for mid and long-range installations while air blowing would be the major installation technique. Performance assessment of various connectors shows that the expanded beam ferrule is favored for emerging on-board optical interconnections thanks to its scalable density and stable return-loss.

Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morgane Barbet-Massin

Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2018-02-02

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Optical pulse shaping approaches to coherent control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goswami, Debabrata

2003-01-01

The last part of the twentieth century has experienced a huge resurge of activity in the field of coherent light-matter interaction, more so in attempting to exert control over such interactions. Birth of coherent control was originally spurred by the theoretical understanding of the quantum interferences that lead to energy randomization and experimental developments in ultrafast laser spectroscopy. The theoretical predictions on control of reaction channels or energy randomization processes are still more dramatic than the experimental demonstrations, though this gap between the two is consistently reducing over the recent years with realistic theoretical models and technological developments. Experimental demonstrations of arbitrary optical pulse shaping have made some of the previously impracticable theoretical predictions possible to implement. Starting with the simple laser modulation schemes to provide proof-of-the-principle demonstrations, feedback loop pulse shaping systems have been developed that can actively manipulate some atomic and molecular processes. This tremendous experimental boost of optical pulse shaping developments has prospects and implications into many more new directions, such as quantum computing and terabit/sec data communications. This review captures certain aspects and impacts of optical pulse shaping into the fast developing areas of coherent control and other related fields. Currently available reviews focus on one or the other detailed aspects of coherent control, and the reader will be referred to such details as and when necessary for issues that are dealt in brief here. We will focus on the current issues including control of intramolecular dynamics and make connections to the future concepts, such as, quantum computation, biomedical applications, etc

Mariner-Venus-Mercury optical navigation demonstration - Results and implications for future missions

Science.gov (United States)

Acton, C. H., Jr.; Ohtakay, H.

1975-01-01

Optical navigation uses spacecraft television pictures of a target body against a known star background in a process which relates the spacecraft trajectory to the target body. This technology was used in the Mariner-Venus-Mercury mission, with the optical data processed in near-real-time, simulating a mission critical environment. Optical data error sources were identified, and a star location error analysis was carried out. Several methods for selecting limb crossing coordinates were used, and a limb smear compensation was introduced. Omission of planetary aberration corrections was the source of large optical residuals.

Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kukwa, M.; Kolanowska, Marta

2016-01-01

Roč. 6, dec (2016), č. článku 38779. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : glacial refugia * prediction of future * Ochrolechia austroamericana Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

Test of Special Relativity Using a Fiber Network of Optical Clocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Delva, P; Lodewyck, J; Bilicki, S; Bookjans, E; Vallet, G; Le Targat, R; Pottie, P-E; Guerlin, C; Meynadier, F; Le Poncin-Lafitte, C; Lopez, O; Amy-Klein, A; Lee, W-K; Quintin, N; Lisdat, C; Al-Masoudi, A; Dörscher, S; Grebing, C; Grosche, G; Kuhl, A; Raupach, S; Sterr, U; Hill, I R; Hobson, R; Bowden, W; Kronjäger, J; Marra, G; Rolland, A; Baynes, F N; Margolis, H S; Gill, P

2017-06-02

Phase compensated optical fiber links enable high accuracy atomic clocks separated by thousands of kilometers to be compared with unprecedented statistical resolution. By searching for a daily variation of the frequency difference between four strontium optical lattice clocks in different locations throughout Europe connected by such links, we improve upon previous tests of time dilation predicted by special relativity. We obtain a constraint on the Robertson-Mansouri-Sexl parameter |α|≲1.1×10^{-8}, quantifying a violation of time dilation, thus improving by a factor of around 2 the best known constraint obtained with Ives-Stilwell type experiments, and by 2 orders of magnitude the best constraint obtained by comparing atomic clocks. This work is the first of a new generation of tests of fundamental physics using optical clocks and fiber links. As clocks improve, and as fiber links are routinely operated, we expect that the tests initiated in this Letter will improve by orders of magnitude in the near future.

Near Earth Architectural Options for a Future Deep Space Optical Communications Network

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, B. L.; Liebrecht, P. E.; Fitzgerald, R. J.

2004-01-01

In the near future the National Aeronautics and Space Administration anticipates a significant increase in demand for long-haul communications services from deep space to Earth. Distances will range from 0.1 to 40 AU, with data rate requirements in the 1's to 1000's of Mbits/second. The near term demand is driven by NASA's Space Science Enterprise which wishes to deploy more capable instruments onboard spacecraft and increase the number of deep space missions. The long term demand is driven by missions with extreme communications challenges such as very high data rates from the outer planets, supporting sub-surface exploration, or supporting NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space Enterprise beyond Earth orbit. Laser communications is a revolutionary communications technology that will dramatically increase NASA's ability to transmit information across the solar system. Lasercom sends information using beams of light and optical elements, such as telescopes and optical amplifiers, rather than RF signals, amplifiers, and antennas. This paper provides an overview of different network options at Earth to meet NASA's deep space lasercom requirements. It is based mainly on work done for the Mars Laser Communications Demonstration Project, a joint project between NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (JPL), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL). It reports preliminary conclusions from the Mars Lasercom Study conducted at MIT/LL and on additional work done for the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System Continuation Study at GSFC. A lasercom flight terminal will be flown on the Mars Telesat Orbiter (MTO) to be launched by NASA in 2009, and will be the first high rate deep space demonstration of this revolutionary technology.

Theory of optical spectra of solvated electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kestner, N.R.

1975-01-01

During the last few years better theoretical models of solvated electron have been developed. These models allow one to calculate a priori the observable properties of the trapped electron. One of the most important and most widely determined properties is the optical spectrum. In this paper we consider the predictions of the theories not only as to the band maximum but line shape and width. In addition we will review how the theories predict these will depend on the solvent, pressure, temperature, and solvent density. In all cases extensive comparisons will be made with experimental work. In addition four new areas will be explored and recent results will be presented. These concern electrons in dense polar gases, the time development of the solvated electron spectrum, solvated electrons in mixed solvents, and photoelectron emission spectra (PEE) as it relates to higher excited states. This paper will review all recent theoretical calculations and present a critical review of the present status and future developments which are anticipated. The best theories are quite successful in predicting trends, and qualitative agreement concerning band maximum. The theory is still weak in predicting line shape and line width

Enhancement of the transverse magneto-optical Kerr effect via resonant tunneling in trilayers containing magneto-optical metals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Girón-Sedas, J. A. [Departamento de Física, Universidad del Valle, AA 25360, Cali (Colombia); Centro de Investigación e Innovación en Bioinformática y Fotónica - CIBioFI, AA 25360 Cali (Colombia); Mejía-Salazar, J. R., E-mail: jrmejia3146@gmail.com [Instituto de Física de São Carlos, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 369, 13560-970 São Carlos, SP (Brazil); Moncada-Villa, E.; Porras-Montenegro, N. [Departamento de Física, Universidad del Valle, AA 25360, Cali (Colombia)

2016-07-18

We propose a way to enhance the transverse magneto-optical Kerr effect, by the excitation of resonant tunneling modes, in subwavelength trilayer structures featuring a dielectric slab sandwiched between two magneto-optical metallic layers. Depending on the magneto-optical layer widths, the proposed system may exhibit an extraordinary transverse magneto-optical Kerr effect, which makes it very attractive for the design and engineering of thin-film magneto-optical-based devices for future photonic circuits or fiber optical-communication systems.

Broadband phase-preserved optical elevator

OpenAIRE

Luo, Yuan; Han, Tiancheng; Zhang, Baile; Qiu, Cheng-Wei; Barbastathis, George

2011-01-01

Phase-preserved optical elevator is an optical device to lift up an entire plane virtually without distortion in light path or phase. Using transformation optics, we have predicted and observed the realization of such a broadband phase-preserved optical elevator, made of a natural homogeneous birefringent crystal without resorting to absorptive and narrowband metamaterials involving time-consuming nano-fabrication. In our demonstration, the optical elevator is designed to lift a sheet upwards...

Predicting the optical observables for nucleon scattering on even-even actinides

Science.gov (United States)

Martyanov, D. S.; Soukhovitskiĩ, E. Sh.; Capote, R.; Quesada, J. M.; Chiba, S.

2017-09-01

The previously derived Lane consistent dispersive coupled-channel optical model for nucleon scattering on 232Th and 238U nuclei is extended to describe scattering on even-even actinides with Z = 90-98. A soft-rotator-model (SRM) description of the low-lying nuclear structure is used, where the SRM Hamiltonian parameters are adjusted to the observed collective levels of the target nucleus. SRM nuclear wave functions (mixed in K quantum number) have been used to calculate the coupling matrix elements of the generalized optical model. The “effective” deformations that define inter-band couplings are derived from the SRM Hamiltonian parameters. Conservation of nuclear volume is enforced by introducing a dynamic monopolar term to the deformed potential, leading to additional couplings between rotational bands. The fitted static deformation parameters are in very good agreement with those derived by Wang and collaborators using the Weizsäcker-Skyrme global mass model (WS4), allowing use of the latter to predict cross sections for nuclei without experimental data. A good description of the scarce “optical” experimental database is achieved. SRM couplings and volume conservation allow a precise calculation of the compound-nucleus formation cross sections, which is significantly different from that calculated with rigid-rotor potentials coupling the ground-state rotational band. The derived parameters can be used to describe both neutron- and proton-induced reactions. Supported by International Atomic Energy Agency, through the IAEA Research Contract 19263, by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity under Contracts FPA2014-53290-C2-2-P and FPA2016-77689-C2-1-R.

Radiation tolerance qualification for maintenance tasks in the future fusion reactors: from fibre-optic components to robust data links

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uffelen, M. van; Fernandez, A. Fernandez; Brichard, B.; Berghmans, F.; Decreton, M.

2003-01-01

The future International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) requires remote handling tools for its maintenance that will operate in a harsh environment. The numerous instrumentation cables for this maintenance equipment call for (de)multiplexing solutions, in order to reduce the umbilical size. Fibre-optic data links, using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, are seriously considered as a radiation tolerant solution, offering wavelength encoded multiplexing possibilities. However, an adapted modus operandi for a reliable assessment of this evolving technology is needed, to enable their long-term implementation in a radiation environment. In this paper, we present a methodology towards qualification methods for these instrumentation data links, and illustrate it with results obtained for different individual components. These results should enable the future design of robust architectures for communication links

The Future of Audit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle Lombardi

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to discuss the current state and future of auditing. Expert consensus is used as a basis to examine the current state of auditing and generate modifications both needed and likely to occur in the audit profession. This study contributes to the literature by using the Delphi method to develop predictions as to the direction of the audit industry and discuss the implications associated with these predictions. If auditors can better understand where the profession stands and where it is headed, then they can better prepare for the future. Some predictions emerging from this study relative to future audit practices include increasing automation of audit procedures, more predictive financial statements, continuous auditing of financial statements and transactions, and an increasingly global perspective regarding audit activities.

Predictability and stability of refraction with increasing optical zone diameter in hyperopic LASIK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa A El-Helw

2010-05-01

correction of hyperopia of more than 4.00 diopters was more predictable, stable and safe.Keywords: hyperopia, LASIK, optical zone, refraction

Peering into the Brain to Predict Behavior: Peer-Reported, but not Self-Reported, Conscientiousness Links Threat-Related Amygdala Activity to Future Problem Drinking

Science.gov (United States)

Swartz, Johnna R.; Knodt, Annchen R.; Radtke, Spenser R.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

2016-01-01

Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. PMID:27717769

Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

2017-02-01

Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future optical communication networks beyond 160 Gbit/s based on OTDM

Science.gov (United States)

Prati, Giancarlo; Bogoni, Antonella; Poti, Luca

2005-01-01

The virtually unlimited bandwidth of optical fibers has caused a great increase in data transmission speed over the past decade and, hence, stimulated high-demand multimedia services such as distance learning, video-conferencing and peer to peer applications. For this reason data traffic is exceeding telephony traffic, and this trend is driving the convergence of telecommunications and computer communications. In this scenario Internet Protocol (IP) is becoming the dominant protocol for any traffic, shifting the attention of the network designers from a circuit switching approach to a packet switching approach. A role of paramount importance in packet switching networks is played by the router that must implement the functionalities to set up and maintain the inter-nodal communications. The main functionalities a router must implement are routing, forwarding, switching, synchronization, contention resolution, and buffering. Nowadays, opto-electronic conversion is still required at each network node to process the incoming signal before routing that to the right output port. However, when the single channel bit rate increases beyond electronic speed limit, Optical Time Division Multiplexing (OTDM) becomes a forced choice, and all-optical processing must be performed to extract the information from the incoming packet. In this paper enabling techniques for ultra-fast all-optical network will be addressed. First a 160 Gbit/s complete transmission system will be considered. As enabling technique, an overview for all-optical logics will be discussed and experimental results will be presented using a particular reconfigurable NOLM based on Self-Phase-Modulation (SPM) or Cross-Phase-Modulation (XPM). Finally, a rough experiment on label extraction, all-optical switching and packet forwarding is shown.

Spatiotemporal optical solitons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malomed, Boris A; Mihalache, Dumitru; Wise, Frank; Torner, Lluis

2005-01-01

In the course of the past several years, a new level of understanding has been achieved about conditions for the existence, stability, and generation of spatiotemporal optical solitons, which are nondiffracting and nondispersing wavepackets propagating in nonlinear optical media. Experimentally, effectively two-dimensional (2D) spatiotemporal solitons that overcome diffraction in one transverse spatial dimension have been created in quadratic nonlinear media. With regard to the theory, fundamentally new features of light pulses that self-trap in one or two transverse spatial dimensions and do not spread out in time, when propagating in various optical media, were thoroughly investigated in models with various nonlinearities. Stable vorticity-carrying spatiotemporal solitons have been predicted too, in media with competing nonlinearities (quadratic-cubic or cubic-quintic). This article offers an up-to-date survey of experimental and theoretical results in this field. Both achievements and outstanding difficulties are reviewed, and open problems are highlighted. Also briefly described are recent predictions for stable 2D and 3D solitons in Bose-Einstein condensates supported by full or low-dimensional optical lattices. (review article)

Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moiz JA

2017-04-01

false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004–0.25, P=0.001 was significantly related with future falls. Conclusion: The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values. Keywords: aged, balance, cross-cultural adaptation

Few-layer antimonene decorated microfiber: ultra-short pulse generation and all-optical thresholding with enhanced long term stability

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yufeng; Liang, Zhiming; Jiang, Xiantao; Chen, Yunxiang; Li, Zhongjun; Lu, Lu; Ge, Yanqi; Wang, Ke; Zheng, Jilin; Lu, Shunbin; Ji, Jianhua; Zhang, Han

2017-12-01

Antimonene, a new type of mono/few-layer two-dimensional (2D) mono-elemental material purely consisting of antimony similar as graphene and phosphorene, has been theoretically predicted with excellent optical response and enhanced stability. Herein, we experimentally investigated the broadband nonlinear optical response of highly stable few-layer antimonene (FLA) by performing an open-aperture Z-scan laser measurement. Thanks to the direct bandgap and resonant absorption at the telecommunication band, we demonstrated the feasibility of FLA-decorated microfiber not only as an optical saturable absorber for ultrafast photonics operation, but also as a stable all-optical pulse thresholder that can effectively suppress the transmission noise, boost the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and reshape the deteriorated input signal. Our findings, as the first prototypic device of absorption of antimonene, might facilitate the development of antimonene-based optical communication technologies towards high stability and practical applications in the future.

Optical spectral signatures of liquids by means of fiber optic technology for product and quality parameter identification

Science.gov (United States)

Mignani, A. G.; Ciaccheri, L.; Mencaglia, A. A.; Diaz-Herrera, N.; Garcia-Allende, P. B.; Ottevaere, H.; Thienpont, H.; Attilio, C.; Cimato, A.; Francalanci, S.; Paccagnini, A.; Pavone, F. S.

2009-01-01

Absorption spectroscopy in the wide 200-1700 nm spectral range is carried out by means of optical fiber instrumentation to achieve a digital mapping of liquids for the prediction of important quality parameters. Extra virgin olive oils from Italy and lubricant oils from turbines with different degrees of degradation were considered as "case studies". The spectral data were processed by means of multivariate analysis so as to obtain a correlation to quality parameters. In practice, the wide range absorption spectra were considered as an optical signature of the liquids from which to extract product quality information. The optical signatures of extra virgin olive oils were used to predict the content of the most important fatty acids. The optical signatures of lubricant oils were used to predict the concentration of the most important parameters for indicating the oil's degree of degradation, such as TAN, JOAP anti-wear index, and water content.

Laser communication experiments between Sota and Meo optical ground station

Science.gov (United States)

Artaud, G.,; Issler, J.-L.; Védrenne, N.; Robert, C.; Petit, C.; Samain, E.; Phung, D.-H.; Maurice, N.; Toyoshima, M.; Kolev, D.

2017-09-01

Optical transmissions between earth and space have been identified as key technologies for future high data rate transmissions between satellites and ground. CNES is investigating the use of optics both for High data rate direct to Earth transfer from observation satellites in LEO, and for future telecommunications applications using optics for the high capacity Gateway link.

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

Science.gov (United States)

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

Future Network Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wessing, Henrik; Bozorgebrahimi, Kurosh; Belter, Bartosz

2015-01-01

This study identifies key requirements for NRENs towards future network architectures that become apparent as users become more mobile and have increased expectations in terms of availability of data. In addition, cost saving requirements call for federated use of, in particular, the optical...

All-Optical Network Subsystems Using Integrated SOA-Based Optical Gates and Flip-Flops for Label-Swapped Netorks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seoane, Jorge; Holm-Nielsen, Pablo Villanueva; Kehayas, E.

2006-01-01

In this letter, we demonstrate that all-optical network subsystems, offering intelligence in the optical layer, can be constructed by functional integration of integrated all-optical logic gates and flip-flops. In this context, we show 10-Gb/s all-optical 2-bit label address recognition......-level advantages of these all-optical subsystems combined with their realization with compact integrated devices, suggest that they are strong candidates for future packet/label switched optical networks....... by interconnecting two optical gates that perform xor operation on incoming optical labels. We also demonstrate 40-Gb/s all-optical wavelength-switching through an optically controlled wavelength converter, consisting of an integrated flip-flop prototype device driven by an integrated optical gate. The system...

CPAC moisture study: Phase 1 report on the study of optical spectra calibration for moisture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veltkamp, D.

1993-01-01

This report discusses work done to investigate the feasibility of using optical spectroscopic methods, combined with multivariate Partial Least Squares (PLS) calibration modeling, to quantitatively predict the moisture content of the crust material in Hanford's waste tank materials. Experiments were conducted with BY-104 simulant material for the 400--1100 nm (VIS), 1100--2500 (NIR), and 400-4000 cm -1 (IR) optical regions. The test data indicated that the NIR optical region, with a single PLS calibration factor, provided the highest accuracy response (better than 0.5 wt %) over a 0--25 wt % moisture range. Issues relating to the preparation of moisture samples with the BY-104 materials and the potential implementation within hot cell and waste tanks are also discussed. The investigation of potential material interferences, including physical and chemical properties, and the scaled demonstration of fiber optic and camera types of applications with simulated waste tanks are outlined as future work tasks

“Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chafen Zhu

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

“Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

2014-01-01

This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

Fibre optic networks for safeguards applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, B.G.R.; Chare, P.; Barrier, A.

1991-01-01

The Euratom Safeguards Directorate has recently installed a fibre optic network in a new large scale nuclear facility in the European Communities. The selection, installation and commissioning of the fibre optic network is discussed from the viewpoint of network topology, physical testing, trouble shooting and authentication. The future use of fibre optic networks for safeguards applications is discussed

Microfocusing of the FERMI@Elettra FEL beam with a K–B active optics system: Spot size predictions by application of the WISE code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raimondi, L.; Svetina, C.; Mahne, N.; Cocco, D.; Abrami, A.; De Marco, M.; Fava, C.; Gerusina, S.; Gobessi, R.; Capotondi, F.; Pedersoli, E.; Kiskinova, M.; De Ninno, G.; Zeitoun, P.; Dovillaire, G.; Lambert, G.; Boutu, W.; Merdji, H.; Gonzalez, A.I.; Gauthier, D.

2013-01-01

FERMI@Elettra, the first seeded EUV-SXR free electron laser (FEL) facility located at Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste has been conceived to provide very short (10–100 fs) pulses with ultrahigh peak brightness and wavelengths from 100 nm to 4 nm. A section fully dedicated to the photon transport and analysis diagnostics, named PADReS, has already been installed and commissioned. Three of the beamlines, EIS-TIMEX, DiProI and LDM, installed after the PADReS section, are in advanced commissioning state and will accept the first users in December 2012. These beam lines employ active X-ray optics in order to focus the FEL beam as well as to perform a controlled beam-shaping at focus. Starting from mirror surface metrology characterization, it is difficult to predict the focal spot shape applying only methods based on geometrical optics such as the ray tracing. Within the geometrical optics approach one cannot take into account the diffraction effect from the optics edges, i.e. the aperture diffraction, and the impact of different surface spatial wavelengths to the spot size degradation. Both these effects are strongly dependent on the photon beam energy and mirror incident angles. We employed a method based on physical optics, which applies the Huygens–Fresnel principle to reflection (on which the WISE code is based). In this work we report the results of the first measurements of the focal spot in the DiProI beamline end-station and compare them to the predictions computed with Shadow code and WISE code, starting from the mirror surface profile characterization

Microfocusing of the FERMI@Elettra FEL beam with a K–B active optics system: Spot size predictions by application of the WISE code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raimondi, L., E-mail: lorenzo.raimondi@elettra.trieste.it [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); Svetina, C.; Mahne, N. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); Cocco, D. [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Road, MS-19 Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Abrami, A.; De Marco, M.; Fava, C.; Gerusina, S.; Gobessi, R.; Capotondi, F.; Pedersoli, E.; Kiskinova, M. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); De Ninno, G. [Sincrotrone Trieste ScpA, S.S. 14 km 163.5 in Area Science Park, 34149 Trieste (Italy); University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, Rozna Dolina, SI-5000 Nova Gorica (Slovenia); Zeitoun, P. [Laboratoire d' Optique Appliquée, CNRS-ENSTA-École Polytechnique, Chemin de la Humiére, 91761 Palaiseau (France); Dovillaire, G. [Imagine Optic, 18 Rue Charles de Gaulle, 91400 Orsay (France); Lambert, G. [Laboratoire d' Optique Appliquée, CNRS-ENSTA-École Polytechnique, Chemin de la Humiére, 91761 Palaiseau (France); Boutu, W.; Merdji, H.; Gonzalez, A.I. [Service des Photons, Atomes et Molécules, IRAMIS, CEA-Saclay, Btiment 522, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Gauthier, D. [University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, Rozna Dolina, SI-5000 Nova Gorica (Slovenia); and others

2013-05-11

FERMI@Elettra, the first seeded EUV-SXR free electron laser (FEL) facility located at Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste has been conceived to provide very short (10–100 fs) pulses with ultrahigh peak brightness and wavelengths from 100 nm to 4 nm. A section fully dedicated to the photon transport and analysis diagnostics, named PADReS, has already been installed and commissioned. Three of the beamlines, EIS-TIMEX, DiProI and LDM, installed after the PADReS section, are in advanced commissioning state and will accept the first users in December 2012. These beam lines employ active X-ray optics in order to focus the FEL beam as well as to perform a controlled beam-shaping at focus. Starting from mirror surface metrology characterization, it is difficult to predict the focal spot shape applying only methods based on geometrical optics such as the ray tracing. Within the geometrical optics approach one cannot take into account the diffraction effect from the optics edges, i.e. the aperture diffraction, and the impact of different surface spatial wavelengths to the spot size degradation. Both these effects are strongly dependent on the photon beam energy and mirror incident angles. We employed a method based on physical optics, which applies the Huygens–Fresnel principle to reflection (on which the WISE code is based). In this work we report the results of the first measurements of the focal spot in the DiProI beamline end-station and compare them to the predictions computed with Shadow code and WISE code, starting from the mirror surface profile characterization.

First-principles prediction of optical second-order harmonic generation in the endohedral N-C{sub 60} compound

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, G. P.; Strubbe, David A.; Louie, Steven G.; George, Thomas F. [Department of Physics, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana 47809 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States) and Materials Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States); Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Office of the Chancellor and Center for Nanoscience, University of Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63121 (United States)

2011-08-15

Non-linear-optical properties in C{sub 60} have attracted enormous attention for over two decades. The endohedral complex N-C{sub 60}, with its remarkable thermal stability and spin-quartet ground state, is a candidate for future room-temperature quantum computing, but there has been no investigation of its non-linear-optical properties. Here, a first-principles calculation shows that N-C{sub 60} is a promising material for nanoscale and ultrafast modulations. Excitation by a pump laser pulse of the nitrogen-atom vibration inside the C{sub 60} cage transiently breaks inversion symmetry and can enable second-harmonic generation (SHG) from a probe pulse. Unlike the SHG observed in C{sub 60} thin films, this harmonic signal is switched on and off periodically every 345 fs. For an fcc crystal of N-C{sub 60}, the second-order susceptibility {chi}{sup (2)} is on the order of 10{sup -8} esu, similar to commercially used nonlinear materials.

The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Rushby, Nick

2013-01-01

This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J; King, Robert A; Bessen, Debra E; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F

2010-04-01

One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal infections (GABHS) in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared with healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Consecutive ratings of tic, OC, and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a 2-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. Copyright 2010 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

2003-06-01

The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

2016-11-01

The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Next Generation Flexible and Cognitive Heterogeneous Optical Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tomkos, Ioannis; Angelou, Marianna; Barroso, Ramón J. Durán

2012-01-01

Optical networking is the cornerstone of the Future Internet as it provides the physical infrastructure of the core backbone networks. Recent developments have enabled much better quality of service/experience for the end users, enabled through the much higher capacities that can be supported...... the capabilities of the Future Internet. In this book chapter, we highlight the latest activities of the optical networking community and in particular what has been the focus of EU funded research. The concepts of flexible and cognitive optical networks are introduced and their key expected benefits...

Prediction of optical properties of paints

Science.gov (United States)

Ďurikovič, Roman; Ágošton, Tomaš

2007-09-01

The field of predictive rendering concerns itself with those methods of image synthesis which yield results that do not only look real, but are also radiometrically correct renditions of nature, i.e., which are accurate predictions of what a real scene would look like under given lighting conditions. A real coating consists of pigments, effect pigments, clear lacquer and glaze. A novel and unique combination of real parameters that are commonly measured in the industry and a theoretical reflectance model consisting of measurable parameters is required. Here, the authors design perception parameters and put them into well known surface reflection functions such as He and Torrance. The original contributions are the study of the sub-surface scattering of real paint and the prediction of its appearance in rendered images by the proposed model of light reflection beneath the paint surface.

The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

2004-01-01

A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

Silicon Optical Modulator Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soon Thor LIM

2015-04-01

Full Text Available We developed a way of predicting and analyzing high speed optical modulator. Our research adopted a bottom-up approach to consider high-speed optical links using an eye diagram. Our method leverages on modular mapping of electrical characteristics to optical characteristics, while attaining the required accuracy necessary for device footprint approaching sub-micron scales where electrical data distribution varies drastically. We calculate for the bias dependent phase shift (2pi/mm and loss (dB/mm for the optical modulator based on the real and imaginary part of complex effective indices. Subsequently, combine effectively both the electrical and optical profiles to construct the optical eye diagram which is the essential gist of signal integrity of such devices.

Scalability of optical networks : crosstalk limitations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tafur Monroy, I.

2000-01-01

Optical networks represent a promising solution for the future high capacity and flexible transport network. This paper presents a model for the performance evaluation of optical networks with respect to linear crosstalk and accumulated spontaneous emission noise. The proposed model is intended for

Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

2013-12-01

Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

New trends in space x-ray optics

Science.gov (United States)

Hudec, R.; Maršíková, V.; Pína, L.; Inneman, A.; Skulinová, M.

2017-11-01

The X-ray optics is a key element of various X-ray telescopes, X-ray microscopes, as well as other X-ray imaging instruments. The grazing incidence X-ray lenses represent the important class of X-ray optics. Most of grazing incidence (reflective) X-ray imaging systems used in astronomy but also in other (laboratory) applications are based on the Wolter 1 (or modified) arrangement. But there are also other designs and configurations proposed, used and considered for future applications both in space and in laboratory. The Kirkpatrick-Baez (K-B) lenses as well as various types of Lobster-Eye optics and MCP/Micropore optics serve as an example. Analogously to Wolter lenses, the X-rays are mostly reflected twice in these systems to create focal images. Various future projects in X-ray astronomy and astrophysics will require large segments with multiple thin shells or foils. The large Kirkpatrick-Baez modules, as well as the large Lobster-Eye X-ray telescope modules in Schmidt arrangement may serve as examples. All these space projects will require high quality and light segmented shells (bent or flat foils) with high X-ray reflectivity and excellent mechanical stability. The Multi Foil Optics (MFO) approach represent a promising alternative for both LE and K-B X-ray optical modules. Several types of reflecting substrates may be considered for these applications, with emphasis on thin float glass sheets and, more recently, high quality silicon wafers. This confirms the importance of non- Wolter X-ray optics designs for the future. Future large space X-ray telescopes (such as IXO) require precise and light-weight X-ray optics based on numerous thin reflecting shells. Novel approaches and advanced technologies are to be exploited and developed. In this contribution, we refer on results of tested X-ray mirror shells produced by glass thermal forming (GTF) and by shaping Si wafers. Both glass foils and Si wafers are commercially available, have excellent surface

All-optical header recognizer for optical packet switched networks : exploiting nonlinear gain and index dynamics in semiconductor optical amplifiers for low power operation and photonic integration device

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calabretta, N.; Dorren, H.J.S.

2009-01-01

The increase of the internet traffic leads to future optical networks requiring tens of Tb/s of capacity. Current electronic circuit switches are limited by the scalability of the electronic switching fabrics, power consumption and dissipation in the opto- electronic conversion. All-optical packet

Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

2008-09-16

including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

Designers predict a bright future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Statton, T.D.

1996-01-01

As power plant designers and builders, there is a bright future for the industry. The demand for electricity will continue to grow, and the need for new plants will increase accordingly. But companies that develop and supply these plants must adapt to new ways of doing business if they expect to see the dawn of this new age. Several factors will have a profound effect on the generation and use of electricity in future years. Instant communications now reach all corners of the globe, making people everywhere aspire to a higher standard of living. The economic surge needed to satisfy these appetites will, in turn, be fed by a network of suppliers who are themselves restructuring to serve global markets, unimpeded by past nationalistic barriers to trade. The strong correlation between economic progress and the growing demand for electricity is well recognized. A ready supply of affordable electricity is a necessary underpinning for any economic expansion. As economies advance and jobs increase, electric demand grows geometrically, fueled by an ever-improving quality of life. Coupled with increasing demand is the worldwide trend toward privatization of the generation industry. The reasons may vary in different parts of the world, but the effect is the same--companies are battling intensely for the right to build or purchase generating facilities. Those companies, like the industry they serve, are themselves in a period of transition. Once a closed, monopolistic group of owners in a predominantly services-based market, they are, thanks to competitive forces, being driven steadily toward a product-based structure

Electron optics with ballistic graphene junctions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shaowen

Electrons transmitted across a ballistic semiconductor junction undergo refraction, analogous to light rays across an optical boundary. A pn junction theoretically provides the equivalent of a negative index medium, enabling novel electron optics such as negative refraction and perfect (Veselago) lensing. In graphene, the linear dispersion and zero-gap bandstructure admit highly transparent pn junctions by simple electrostatic gating, which cannot be achieved in conventional semiconductors. Robust demonstration of these effects, however, has not been forthcoming. Here we employ transverse magnetic focusing to probe propagation across an electrostatically defined graphene junction. We find perfect agreement with the predicted Snell's law for electrons, including observation of both positive and negative refraction. Resonant transmission across the pn junction provides a direct measurement of the angle dependent transmission coefficient, and we demonstrate good agreement with theory. Comparing experimental data with simulation reveals the crucial role played by the effective junction width, providing guidance for future device design. Efforts toward sharper pn junction and possibility of zero field Veselago lensing will also be discussed. This work is supported by the Semiconductor Research Corporations NRI Center for Institute for Nanoelectronics Discovery and Exploration (INDEX).

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Koutrakis, Petros; Kloog, Itai; Melly, Steven; Nordio, Francesco; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Jujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

Workshop on Future Directions for Optical Information Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

1981-03-01

the proslective market for such devices has not generally been viewed as large enough to encourage tne type of major investments that stimulated...of the channel waveguides n SAW propagation is being invest - igated. Further discussion on integrated-cptic, acoLuto-optic devices is given in a paper...are really looking at fundemental limitations and the tools are there to answer some of these questions. C: There are two research programs in our

Theory of optical flashes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

London, R.A.

1983-01-01

The theory of optical flashes created by x- and γ-ray burst heating of stars in binaries is reviewed. Calculations of spectra due to steady-state x-ray reprocessing and estimates of the fundamental time scales for the non-steady case are discussed. The results are applied to the extant optical data from x-ray and γ-ray bursters. Finally, I review predictions of flashes from γ-ray bursters detectable by a state of the art all-sky optical monitor

Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannah Slater

Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

The art of creating futures. Practical theology and a strategic research sensitivity for the future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, J.A.; Ganzevoort, R.R.

2014-01-01

This paper explores a futures perspective for practical theology. Although there are some examples of a future orientation, a systematic futures perspective has not been developed. Building on futures studies (including predictive studies on foresight and design and architecture studies), the

New generation of devices for all-optical communications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glesk, I.; Runser, R.J.; Prucnal, P.R.

2001-01-01

To increase the transmission capacity of future communication networks is becoming very critical. This task can only be accomplished by taking advantage of optical networks where multiplexing techniques such as Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) and Optical Time Division Multiplexing (OTDM) are employed. To avoid electronic bottlenecks a whole new generation of ultrafast devices is needed. To fulfill these needs a new class of all optical devices has been proposed and developed. By taking advantage of the nonlinear dynamics in semiconductor optical amplifiers in combination with the fiber interferometers a new generation of ultrafast all-optical de multiplexers and wavelength converters has been demonstrated. Other switching technologies are also promising for the future. The latest technologies in the area of micro machining have created very attractive low cost MEMS. Recently announced use of bubble technology for all-optical switching might also lead to the development of next generation large scale switching fabrics. This paper is an overview of the recent development in these areas. (authors)

Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

2016-10-01

mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iliffe Steve

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

Orographic cirrus in a future climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Joos

2009-10-01

Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature, respectively. The vertical profiles are extracted from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. The influence of additional moisture in a future climate on the propagation of gravity waves and the formation of orographic cirrus could be estimated. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities in the moist simulations. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth. However, in some moist simulations dynamical changes contribute to changes in the ice water content, ice crystal number concentration and optical depth. For the corresponding dry simulations dynamical changes are more pronounced leading to a decreased optical depth in a future climate in some cases.

Optic Disc and Optic Cup Segmentation Methodologies for Glaucoma Image Detection: A Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Almazroa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Glaucoma is the second leading cause of loss of vision in the world. Examining the head of optic nerve (cup-to-disc ratio is very important for diagnosing glaucoma and for patient monitoring after diagnosis. Images of optic disc and optic cup are acquired by fundus camera as well as Optical Coherence Tomography. The optic disc and optic cup segmentation techniques are used to isolate the relevant parts of the retinal image and to calculate the cup-to-disc ratio. The main objective of this paper is to review segmentation methodologies and techniques for the disc and cup boundaries which are utilized to calculate the disc and cup geometrical parameters automatically and accurately to help the professionals in the glaucoma to have a wide view and more details about the optic nerve head structure using retinal fundus images. We provide a brief description of each technique, highlighting its classification and performance metrics. The current and future research directions are summarized and discussed.

Optic Disc and Optic Cup Segmentation Methodologies for Glaucoma Image Detection: A Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Almazroa, Ahmed; Burman, Ritambhar; Raahemifar, Kaamran; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan

2015-01-01

Glaucoma is the second leading cause of loss of vision in the world. Examining the head of optic nerve (cup-to-disc ratio) is very important for diagnosing glaucoma and for patient monitoring after diagnosis. Images of optic disc and optic cup are acquired by fundus camera as well as Optical Coherence Tomography. The optic disc and optic cup segmentation techniques are used to isolate the relevant parts of the retinal image and to calculate the cup-to-disc ratio. The main objective of this paper is to review segmentation methodologies and techniques for the disc and cup boundaries which are utilized to calculate the disc and cup geometrical parameters automatically and accurately to help the professionals in the glaucoma to have a wide view and more details about the optic nerve head structure using retinal fundus images. We provide a brief description of each technique, highlighting its classification and performance metrics. The current and future research directions are summarized and discussed. PMID:26688751

An Optical Receiver Post Processing System for the Integrated Radio and Optical Communications Software Defined Radio Test Bed

Science.gov (United States)

Nappier, Jennifer M.; Tokars, Roger P.; Wroblewski, Adam C.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Radio and Optical Communications (iROC) project at the National Aeronautics and Space Administrations (NASA) Glenn Research Center is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid radio frequency (RF) and optical communication system for future deep space missions. As a part of this investigation, a test bed for a radio frequency (RF) and optical software defined radio (SDR) has been built. Receivers and modems for the NASA deep space optical waveform are not commercially available so a custom ground optical receiver system has been built. This paper documents the ground optical receiver, which is used in order to test the RF and optical SDR in a free space optical communications link.

An Optical Receiver Post-Processing System for the Integrated Radio and Optical Communications Software Defined Radio Test Bed

Science.gov (United States)

Nappier, Jennifer M.; Tokars, Roger P.; Wroblewski, Adam C.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Radio and Optical Communications (iROC) project at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Glenn Research Center is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid radio frequency (RF) and optical communication system for future deep space missions. As a part of this investigation, a test bed for a radio frequency (RF) and optical software defined radio (SDR) has been built. Receivers and modems for the NASA deep space optical waveform are not commercially available so a custom ground optical receiver system has been built. This paper documents the ground optical receiver, which is used in order to test the RF and optical SDR in a free space optical communications link.

Optical space communication: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, V.K.

1994-01-01

In this paper, importance of the optical space communication has been highlighted. Its merits and demerits over the conventional microwave system has been presented. In contrast to coherent systems, use of an optical preamplifier in direct detection system has been emphasized. Status of some of the ongoing/future space communication projects has been given. (author). 9 refs, 5 figs

A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the fut...

Fibre and components induced limitations in high capacity optical networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peucheret, Christophe

2003-01-01

The design of future all-optical networks relies on the knowledge of the physical layer transport properties. In this thesis, we focus on two types of system impairments: those induced by the non-ideal transfer functions of optical filters to be found in network elements such as optical add...... design in order to maximise the spectral efficiency in a four add-drop node ring network. The concept of "normalised transmission sections" is introduced in order to ease the dimensioning of transparent domains in future all-optical networks. Normalised sections based on standard single mode fibre (SMF......-drop multiplexers (OADM) and optical cross-connects (OXC), as well as those due to the interaction of group-velocity dispersion, optical fibre non-linearities and accumulation of amplifier noise in the transmission path. The dispersion of fibre optics components is shown to limit their cascadability. Dispersion...

Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amany E. Aly

2016-04-01

Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

Future High Capacity Backbone Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Jiayuan

are proposed. The work focuses on energy efficient routing algorithms in a dynamic optical core network environment, with Generalized MultiProtocol Label Switching (GMPLS) as the control plane. Energy ef- ficient routing algorithms for energy savings and CO2 savings are proposed, and their performance...... aiming for reducing the dynamic part of the energy consumption of the network may increase the fixed part of the energy consumption meanwhile. In the second half of the thesis, the conflict between energy efficiency and Quality of Service (QoS) is addressed by introducing a novel software defined......This thesis - Future High Capacity Backbone Networks - deals with the energy efficiency problems associated with the development of future optical networks. In the first half of the thesis, novel approaches for using multiple/single alternative energy sources for improving energy efficiency...

Optoelectronic line transmission an introduction to fibre optics

CERN Document Server

Tricker, Raymond L

2013-01-01

Optoelectronic Line Transmission: An Introduction to Fibre Optics presents a basic introduction as well as a background reference manual on fiber optic transmission. The book discusses the basic principles of optical line transmission; the advantages and disadvantages of optical fibers and optoelectronic signalling; the practical applications of optoelectronics; and the future of optoelectronics. The text also describes the theories of optical line transmission; fibers and cables for optical transmission; transmitters including light-emitting diodes and lasers; and receivers including photodi

Optical signal processing techniques and applications of optical phase modulation in high-speed communication systems

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Ning

In recent years, optical phase modulation has attracted much research attention in the field of fiber optic communications. Compared with the traditional optical intensity-modulated signal, one of the main merits of the optical phase-modulated signal is the better transmission performance. For optical phase modulation, in spite of the comprehensive study of its transmission performance, only a little research has been carried out in terms of its functions, applications and signal processing for future optical networks. These issues are systematically investigated in this thesis. The research findings suggest that optical phase modulation and its signal processing can greatly facilitate flexible network functions and high bandwidth which can be enjoyed by end users. In the thesis, the most important physical-layer technology, signal processing and multiplexing, are investigated with optical phase-modulated signals. Novel and advantageous signal processing and multiplexing approaches are proposed and studied. Experimental investigations are also reported and discussed in the thesis. Optical time-division multiplexing and demultiplexing. With the ever-increasing demand on communication bandwidth, optical time division multiplexing (OTDM) is an effective approach to upgrade the capacity of each wavelength channel in current optical systems. OTDM multiplexing can be simply realized, however, the demultiplexing requires relatively complicated signal processing and stringent timing control, and thus hinders its practicability. To tackle this problem, in this thesis a new OTDM scheme with hybrid DPSK and OOK signals is proposed. Experimental investigation shows this scheme can greatly enhance the demultiplexing timing misalignment and improve the demultiplexing performance, and thus make OTDM more practical and cost effective. All-optical signal processing. In current and future optical communication systems and networks, the data rate per wavelength has been approaching

Testing of Performance of Optical Fibers Under Irradiation in Intense Radiation Fields, When Subjected to High Temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blue, Thomas; Windl, Wolfgang; Dickerson, Bryan

2013-01-01

The primary objective of this project is to measure and model the performance of optical fibers in intense radiation fields when subjected to very high temperatures. This research will pave the way for fiber optic and optically based sensors under conditions expected in future high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. Sensor life and signal-to-noise ratios are susceptible to attenuation of the light signal due to scattering and absorbance in the fibers. This project will provide an experimental and theoretical study of the darkening of optical fibers in high-radiation and high-temperature environments. Although optical fibers have been studied for moderate radiation fluence and flux levels, the results of irradiation at very high temperatures have not been published for extended in-core exposures. Several previous multi-scale modeling efforts have studied irradiation effects on the mechanical properties of materials. However, model-based prediction of irradiation-induced changes in silica'@@s optical transport properties has only recently started to receive attention due to possible applications as optical transmission components in fusion reactors. Nearly all damage-modeling studies have been performed in the molecular-dynamics domain, limited to very short times and small systems. Extended-time modeling, however, is crucial to predicting the long-term effects of irradiation at high temperatures, since the experimental testing may not encompass the displacement rate that the fibers will encounter if they are deployed in the VHTR. The project team will pursue such extended-time modeling, including the effects of the ambient and recrystallization. The process will be based on kinetic MC modeling using the concept of amorphous material consisting of building blocks of defect-pairs or clusters, which has been successfully applied to kinetic modeling in amorphized and recrystallized silicon. Using this procedure, the team will model compensation for rate effects, and

An inexpensive high-temperature optical fiber thermometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, Travis J.; Jones, Matthew R.; Tree, Dale R.; Allred, David D.

2017-01-01

An optical fiber thermometer consists of an optical fiber whose tip is coated with a highly conductive, opaque material. When heated, this sensing tip becomes an isothermal cavity that emits like a blackbody. This emission is used to predict the sensing tip temperature. In this work, analytical and experimental research has been conducted to further advance the development of optical fiber thermometry. An inexpensive optical fiber thermometer is developed by applying a thin coating of a high-temperature cement onto the tip of a silica optical fiber. An FTIR spectrometer is used to detect the spectral radiance exiting the fiber. A rigorous mathematical model of the irradiation incident on the detection system is developed. The optical fiber thermometer is calibrated using a blackbody radiator and inverse methods are used to predict the sensing tip temperature when exposed to various heat sources. - Highlights: • An inexpensive coating for an optical fiber thermometer sensing tip is tested. • Inverse heat transfer methods are used to estimate the sensing tip temperature. • An FTIR spectrometer is used as the detector to test the optical fiber thermometer using various heat sources.

Meta-shell Approach for Constructing Lightweight and High Resolution X-Ray Optics

Science.gov (United States)

McClelland, Ryan S.

2016-01-01

Lightweight and high resolution optics are needed for future space-based x-ray telescopes to achieve advances in high-energy astrophysics. Past missions such as Chandra and XMM-Newton have achieved excellent angular resolution using a full shell mirror approach. Other missions such as Suzaku and NuSTAR have achieved lightweight mirrors using a segmented approach. This paper describes a new approach, called meta-shells, which combines the fabrication advantages of segmented optics with the alignment advantages of full shell optics. Meta-shells are built by layering overlapping mirror segments onto a central structural shell. The resulting optic has the stiffness and rotational symmetry of a full shell, but with an order of magnitude greater collecting area. Several meta-shells so constructed can be integrated into a large x-ray mirror assembly by proven methods used for Chandra and XMM-Newton. The mirror segments are mounted to the meta-shell using a novel four point semi-kinematic mount. The four point mount deterministically locates the segment in its most performance sensitive degrees of freedom. Extensive analysis has been performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the four point mount and meta-shell approach. A mathematical model of a meta-shell constructed with mirror segments bonded at four points and subject to launch loads has been developed to determine the optimal design parameters, namely bond size, mirror segment span, and number of layers per meta-shell. The parameters of an example 1.3 m diameter mirror assembly are given including the predicted effective area. To verify the mathematical model and support opto-mechanical analysis, a detailed finite element model of a meta-shell was created. Finite element analysis predicts low gravity distortion and low thermal distortion. Recent results are discussed including Structural Thermal Optical Performance (STOP) analysis as well as vibration and shock testing of prototype meta-shells.

Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents’ Future Affective Experience during Exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Karnaze, Melissa M.; Levine, Linda J.; Schneider, Margaret

2018-01-01

Purpose Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents’ feelings during exercise. Method During the first semester of the school year, we assessed sixth grade students’ (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test, and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the second semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Results Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise, and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. Conclusion These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences. PMID:28494196

Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

2017-09-01

Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

Deep space optical communication via relay satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Dolinar, S.; Vilnrotter, V.; Gagliardi, R.

1981-01-01

The application of optical communications for a deep space link via an earth-orbiting relay satellite is discussed. The system uses optical frequencies for the free-space channel and RF links for atmospheric transmission. The relay satellite is in geostationary orbit and contains the optics necessary for data processing and formatting. It returns the data to earth through the RF terrestrial link and also transmits an optical beacon to the satellite for spacecraft return pointing and for the alignment of the transmitting optics. Future work will turn to modulation and coding, pointing and tracking, and optical-RF interfacing.

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

2018-01-01

textabstractThis paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past

X-ray pore optic developments

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Kotska; Bavdaz, Marcos; Collon, Maximilien; Beijersbergen, Marco; Kraft, Stefan; Fairbend, Ray; Séguy, Julien; Blanquer, Pascal; Graue, Roland; Kampf, Dirk

2017-11-01

In support of future x-ray telescopes ESA is developing new optics for the x-ray regime. To date, mass and volume have made x-ray imaging technology prohibitive to planetary remote sensing imaging missions. And although highly successful, the mirror technology used on ESA's XMM-Newton is not sufficient for future, large, x-ray observatories, since physical limits on the mirror packing density mean that aperture size becomes prohibitive. To reduce telescope mass and volume the packing density of mirror shells must be reduced, whilst maintaining alignment and rigidity. Structures can also benefit from a modular optic arrangement. Pore optics are shown to meet these requirements. This paper will discuss two pore optic technologies under development, with examples of results from measurement campaigns on samples. One activity has centred on the use of coated, silicon wafers, patterned with ribs, that are integrated onto a mandrel whose form has been polished to the required shape. The wafers follow the shape precisely, forming pore sizes in the sub-mm region. Individual stacks of mirrors can be manufactured without risk to, or dependency on, each other and aligned in a structure from which they can also be removed without hazard. A breadboard is currently being built to demonstrate this technology. A second activity centres on glass pore optics. However an adaptation of micro channel plate technology to form square pores has resulted in a monolithic material that can be slumped into an optic form. Alignment and coating of two such plates produces an x-ray focusing optic. A breadboard 20cm aperture optic is currently being built.

The handbook of optical communication networks

CERN Document Server

Ilyas, Mohammad

2003-01-01

The Handbook of Optical Communication Networks presents comprehensive, up-to-date technical information on integrated, state-of-the-art optical networks. Beginning with an in-depth intoduction to the field, top international authorities explore every major aspect of optical networks, from basic concepts to research grade material. Their discussions cover all of the essential topics, including protocols, resource management, routing and wavelength assignment in WDM networks, connection management, survivability, enabling technologies, and future trends.

Extremely Lightweight Segmented Membrane Optical Shell Fabrication Technology for Future IR to Optical Telescope, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose that the Membrane Optical Shell Technology (MOST) substrate fabrication approach be extended with a specific focus on advanced off-axis very light weight,...

Predictive Toxicology: Current Status and Future Outlook (EBI ...

Science.gov (United States)

Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA. Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA.

Potential of OFDM for next generation optical access

Science.gov (United States)

Fritzsche, Daniel; Weis, Erik; Breuer, Dirk

2011-01-01

This paper shows the requirements for next generation optical access (NGOA) networks and analyzes the potential of OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) for the use in such network scenarios. First, we show the motivation for NGOA systems based on the future requirements on FTTH access systems and list the advantages of OFDM in such scenarios. In the next part, the basics of OFDM and different methods to generate and detect optical OFDM signals are explained and analyzed. At the transmitter side the options include intensity modulation and the more advanced field modulation of the optical OFDM signal. At the receiver there is the choice between direct detection and coherent detection. As the result of this discussion we show our vision of the future use of OFDM in optical access networks.

Optical radiation and visual health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waxler, M.; Hitchins, V.M.

1986-01-01

This book provides a focus on the parameters of ultraviolet light, visible, and infrared radiation s which could cause long-term visual health problems in humans. It reviews early research on radiation effects on the eye, and gives detailed attention to the hazardous effects of optical radiation on the retinal pigment epithelium and the photoreceptors. These data are further analyzed with regard to five potential long-term visual health problems; retinal degeneration, visual aging, disorder of visual development, ocular drug phototoxicity, and cataracts. Finally, epidemiologic principles for studying the relationships between optical radiation and long-term visual health problems are reviewed, concluding with the implications for future research and radiation protection. The contents include: historical perspectives; optical radiation and cataracts; the involvement of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE); optical radiation damage to the ocular photoreceptors; possible role of optical radiation in retinal degenerations; optical radiation and the aged eye; optical radiation effects on aging and visual perception; optical radiation effects on visual development; and index

Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

2017-09-01

Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

2016-06-01

Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

Testing of Performance of Optical Fibers Under Irradiation in Intense Radiation Fields, When Subjected to Very High Temperatures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blue, Thomas [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Windl, Wolfgang [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Dickerson, Bryan [Luna Innovations, Inc. (United States)

2013-01-03

The primary objective of this project is to measure and model the performance of optical fibers in intense radiation fields when subjected to very high temperatures. This research will pave the way for fiber optic and optically based sensors under conditions expected in future high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. Sensor life and signal-to-noise ratios are susceptible to attenuation of the light signal due to scattering and absorbance in the fibers. This project will provide an experimental and theoretical study of the darkening of optical fibers in high-radiation and high-temperature environments. Although optical fibers have been studied for moderate radiation fluence and flux levels, the results of irradiation at very high temperatures have not been published for extended in-core exposures. Several previous multi-scale modeling efforts have studied irradiation effects on the mechanical properties of materials. However, model-based prediction of irradiation-induced changes in silica's optical transport properties has only recently started to receive attention due to possible applications as optical transmission components in fusion reactors. Nearly all damage-modeling studies have been performed in the molecular-dynamics domain, limited to very short times and small systems. Extended-time modeling, however, is crucial to predicting the long-term effects of irradiation at high temperatures, since the experimental testing may not encompass the displacement rate that the fibers will encounter if they are deployed in the VHTR. The project team will pursue such extended-time modeling, including the effects of the ambient and recrystallization. The process will be based on kinetic MC modeling using the concept of amorphous material consisting of building blocks of defect-pairs or clusters, which has been successfully applied to kinetic modeling in amorphized and recrystallized silicon. Using this procedure, the team will model compensation for rate effects, and

NuMI Flux Predictions for NOvA and MINERvA

Science.gov (United States)

Aliaga Soplin, Leonidas; Nova Collaboration; Minerva Collaboration

2017-01-01

The determination of the neutrino flux in any conventional neutrino beam presents a challenge for the current and future short and long baseline neutrino experiments. The uncertainties associated with the production and attenuation of the hadrons in the beamline materials along with those associated with the beam optics have a big effect in the knowledge of the flux. For experiments like MINERvA and NOvA, understanding the flux is crucial since it enters directly into every neutrino-nucleus cross-section measurement. The majority of this work involves predicting the neutrino flux using dedicated hadron production measurements from hadron-nucleus collisions. The predictions at the MINERvA and NOvA near detectors are presented as well as the results of incorporating in-situ MINERvA data that can provide additional constraints. These results have been fully implemented in MINERvA and they are currently use for its cross-section analysis. The implementation for NoVA is underway. The procedure and conclusions of this work will have a big impact on future hadron production experiments and on determining the flux for the upcoming DUNE experiment.

Marriage of x-ray and optical astronomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, J.E.

1975-01-01

An historical discussion of the relation of x-ray and optical astronomy is given including distances within our galaxy, the optical identification of x-ray sources, the binary x-ray stars, neutron stars and black holes, a program in x-ray astronomy, and future missions

Distributed fiber optic sensor-enhanced detection and prediction of shrinkage-induced delamination of ultra-high-performance concrete overlay

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Yi; Valipour, Mahdi; Meng, Weina; Khayat, Kamal H.; Chen, Genda

2017-08-01

This study develops a delamination detection system for smart ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) overlays using a fully distributed fiber optic sensor. Three 450 mm (length) × 200 mm (width) × 25 mm (thickness) UHPC overlays were cast over an existing 200 mm thick concrete substrate. The initiation and propagation of delamination due to early-age shrinkage of the UHPC overlay were detected as sudden increases and their extension in spatial distribution of shrinkage-induced strains measured from the sensor based on pulse pre-pump Brillouin optical time domain analysis. The distributed sensor is demonstrated effective in detecting delamination openings from microns to hundreds of microns. A three-dimensional finite element model with experimental material properties is proposed to understand the complete delamination process measured from the distributed sensor. The model is validated using the distributed sensor data. The finite element model with cohesive elements for the overlay-substrate interface can predict the complete delamination process.

Controling the scattering of Intralipid by using optical clearing agents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen Xiang; Luo Qingming; Zhu Dan; Tuchin, Valery V

2009-01-01

Optical clearing agents (OCAs) with high refractive indices and hyperosmolarity can enhance the penetration of light in tissues by reducing scattering in tissues. However, the mechanism of tissue optical clearing is not much clear for the complex interaction between tissues and OCAs. In this work, Intralipid was mixed with different concentrations of OCAs, i.e. dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), glycerol, 1,4-butanediol, 1,2-propanediol, poly-ethylene glycol 200 (PEG200) and poly-ethylene glycol 400 (PEG400). Except for PEG200 and PEG400 that make aggregation of particles, the others kept the mixture uniform. The reduced scattering coefficients of uniform mixtures were predicted with Mie theory and measured by a commercially available spectrophotometer with an integrating sphere. The results show that all of the OCAs used enhance the optical clearing effect of Intralipid. If OCAs do not change the structure of Intralipid, Mie theory prediction matches well with the measurements. And the higher the refractive index of OCA, the smaller the reduced scattering coefficient. A simple formula deduced can quantitatively predict the optical clearing effect caused by OCAs. This work is helpful for clarifying the mechanism of tissue optical clearing, which will make the effect of optical clearing of tissue predictable and controllable.

Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

2015-07-01

The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

Application of optical action potentials in human induced pluripotent stem cells-derived cardiomyocytes to predict drug-induced cardiac arrhythmias.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, H R; Hortigon-Vinagre, M P; Zamora, V; Kopljar, I; De Bondt, A; Gallacher, D J; Smith, G

2017-09-01

Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPS-CMs) are emerging as new and human-relevant source in vitro model for cardiac safety assessment that allow us to investigate a set of 20 reference drugs for predicting cardiac arrhythmogenic liability using optical action potential (oAP) assay. Here, we describe our examination of the oAP measurement using a voltage sensitive dye (Di-4-ANEPPS) to predict adverse compound effects using hiPS-CMs and 20 cardioactive reference compounds. Fluorescence signals were digitized at 10kHz and the records subsequently analyzed off-line. Cells were exposed to 30min incubation to vehicle or compound (n=5/dose, 4 doses/compound) that were blinded to the investigating laboratory. Action potential parameters were measured, including rise time (T rise ) of the optical action potential duration (oAPD). Significant effects on oAPD were sensitively detected with 11 QT-prolonging drugs, while oAPD shortening was observed with I Ca -antagonists, I Kr -activator or ATP-sensitive K + channel (K ATP )-opener. Additionally, the assay detected varied effects induced by 6 different sodium channel blockers. The detection threshold for these drug effects was at or below the published values of free effective therapeutic plasma levels or effective concentrations by other studies. The results of this blinded study indicate that OAP is a sensitive method to accurately detect drug-induced effects (i.e., duration/QT-prolongation, shortening, beat rate, and incidence of early after depolarizations) in hiPS-CMs; therefore, this technique will potentially be useful in predicting drug-induced arrhythmogenic liabilities in early de-risking within the drug discovery phase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

2015-06-01

The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

2008-01-01

In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

Analysis of blocking probability for OFDM-based variable bandwidth optical network

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongli; Lin, Xuefeng; Wu, Yuyao; Gu, Wanyi

2011-12-01

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has recently been proposed as a modulation technique. For optical networks, because of its good spectral efficiency, flexibility, and tolerance to impairments, optical OFDM is much more flexible compared to traditional WDM systems, enabling elastic bandwidth transmissions, and optical networking is the future trend of development. In OFDM-based optical network the research of blocking rate has very important significance for network assessment. Current research for WDM network is basically based on a fixed bandwidth, in order to accommodate the future business and the fast-changing development of optical network, our study is based on variable bandwidth OFDM-based optical networks. We apply the mathematical analysis and theoretical derivation, based on the existing theory and algorithms, research blocking probability of the variable bandwidth of optical network, and then we will build a model for blocking probability.

Sectoral Innovation Foresight. Electrical and Optical Equipment Sector. Final report. Task 2

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broek, T. van den; Giessen, A.M. van der

2010-01-01

The goal of this study is to highlight possible future developments of importance to the electrical and optical (E&O) equipment sector, paying particular importance to ‘radical’ changes and discussing policy options and future scenarios. The electrical & optical equipment sector plays a vital role

Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

2013-06-01

Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

Sustainable Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N'Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Marano, F.; Boland, S.; Leroux, M.; Zucchini-Pascal, N.; Peyre, L.; Rahmani, R.; Buron, N.; Porcedou, M.; Fromenty, B.; Borgne-Sanchez, A.; Rogue, A.; Spire, C.; Claude, N.; Guillouzo, A.

2010-01-01

Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

Integration of LCoS-SLM and LabVIEW based software to simulate fundamental optics, wave optics, and Fourier optics

Science.gov (United States)

Lyu, Bo-Han; Wang, Chen; Tsai, Chun-Wei

2017-08-01

Jasper Display Corp. (JDC) offer high reflectivity, high resolution Liquid Crystal on Silicon - Spatial Light Modulator (LCoS-SLM) which include an associated controller ASIC and LabVIEW based modulation software. Based on this LCoS-SLM, also called Education Kit (EDK), we provide a training platform which includes a series of optical theory and experiments to university students. This EDK not only provides a LabVIEW based operation software to produce Computer Generated Holograms (CGH) to generate some basic diffraction image or holographic image, but also provides simulation software to verity the experiment results simultaneously. However, we believe that a robust LCoSSLM, operation software, simulation software, training system, and training course can help students to study the fundamental optics, wave optics, and Fourier optics more easily. Based on these fundamental knowledges, they could develop their unique skills and create their new innovations on the optoelectronic application in the future.

The Relationships among Imagination, Future Imagination Tendency, and Future Time Perspective of Junior High School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Min-Ying

2015-01-01

The main purpose of the study were to investigate the relationships among imagination, future imagination tendency, and future time perspective of junior high school students, then to explore the future time perspective which is predicted by background variables, imaginative qualities, and future imagination tendency. The subjects were 331 from…

Dumpster Optics: teaching and learning optics without a kit

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Judy; Magnani, Nancy; Robinson, Kathleen

2016-09-01

The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) and renewed emphasis on STEM education in the U.S. have resulted in the development of many educational kits for teaching science in general and optics in particular. Many teachers do not have funding to purchase kits and practical experience has shown that even costly kits can have poorly written and misleading instructions and may include experiments that would not work in a classroom. Dumpster Optics lessons are designed to use inexpensive, commonly found materials. All lessons have been field-tested with students. We will describe the development of the lessons, provide examples of field testing experiences and outline possible future activities.

Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

2005-01-01

This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

2005-07-01

This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

Quantitative contrast-enhanced optical coherence tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winetraub, Yonatan; SoRelle, Elliott D. [Molecular Imaging Program at Stanford, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Bio-X Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Biophysics Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Structural Biology, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Liba, Orly [Molecular Imaging Program at Stanford, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Bio-X Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Structural Biology, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Zerda, Adam de la [Molecular Imaging Program at Stanford, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Bio-X Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Biophysics Program, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Structural Biology, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, 299 Campus Drive, Stanford, California 94305 (United States)

2016-01-11

We have developed a model to accurately quantify the signals produced by exogenous scattering agents used for contrast-enhanced Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT). This model predicts distinct concentration-dependent signal trends that arise from the underlying physics of OCT detection. Accordingly, we show that real scattering particles can be described as simplified ideal scatterers with modified scattering intensity and concentration. The relation between OCT signal and particle concentration is approximately linear at concentrations lower than 0.8 particle per imaging voxel. However, at higher concentrations, interference effects cause signal to increase with a square root dependence on the number of particles within a voxel. Finally, high particle concentrations cause enough light attenuation to saturate the detected signal. Predictions were validated by comparison with measured OCT signals from gold nanorods (GNRs) prepared in water at concentrations ranging over five orders of magnitude (50 fM to 5 nM). In addition, we validated that our model accurately predicts the signal responses of GNRs in highly heterogeneous scattering environments including whole blood and living animals. By enabling particle quantification, this work provides a valuable tool for current and future contrast-enhanced in vivo OCT studies. More generally, the model described herein may inform the interpretation of detected signals in modalities that rely on coherence-based detection or are susceptible to interference effects.

Future Architectures for NREN infrastructures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wessing, Henrik; Bozorgebrahimi, Kurosh; Belter, Bartosz

This study identifies key requirements for NRENs towards future network architectures that become apparent as users become moremobile and have increased expectations in terms of availability of data. In addition, cost saving requirements call for federated use of, inparticular, the optical spectral...

Short wavelength optics for future free electron lasers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Attwood, D.T.

1984-04-01

Although much free-electron laser work is directed toward achieving sufficient single-pass gain to be useful for research purposes, the availability of mirrors of high reflectance for the vacuum ultraviolet and soft x-ray regime would make resonant cavities a possibility. In addition, as in ordinary synchrotron radiation work, mirrors are required for the construction of realistic experiments and for beam manipulation purposes such as folding and extraction. The Working Group discussed a number of approaches to reflecting optics for free electron lasers, which are summarized here, and described in some detail. 16 references, 2 figures

Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

Science.gov (United States)

Montoya, Isaac D.

2008-01-01

Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

Predicting ambient aerosol Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: organic carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

2014-11-01

Organic carbon (OC) can constitute 50% or more of the mass of atmospheric particulate matter. Typically, the organic carbon concentration is measured using thermal methods such as Thermal-Optical Reflectance (TOR) from quartz fiber filters. Here, methods are presented whereby Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters are used to accurately predict TOR OC. Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive, and non-destructive to the PTFE filters. To develop and test the method, FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites sampled during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to artifact-corrected TOR OC. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets by sampling site and date which leads to precise and accurate OC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of determination (R2; 0.96), low bias (0.02 μg m-3, all μg m-3 values based on the nominal IMPROVE sample volume of 32.8 m-3), low error (0.08 μg m-3) and low normalized error (11%). These performance metrics can be achieved with various degrees of spectral pretreatment (e.g., including or excluding substrate contributions to the absorbances) and are comparable in precision and accuracy to collocated TOR measurements. FT-IR spectra are also divided into calibration and test sets by OC mass and by OM / OC which reflects the organic composition of the particulate matter and is obtained from organic functional group composition; this division also leads to precise and accurate OC predictions. Low OC concentrations have higher bias and normalized error due to TOR analytical errors and artifact correction errors, not due to the range of OC mass of the samples in the calibration set. However, samples with low OC mass can be used to predict samples with high OC mass indicating that the

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

Science.gov (United States)

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

Evolution of optic nerve and retina alterations in a child with indirect traumatic neuropathy as assessed by optical coherence tomography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Dutra Rossetto

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Herein, we describe the case of a 4-year-old child with indirect traumatic optic neuropathy and serial changes of the optic nerve head and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL documented using optical coherence tomography (OCT. Visual acuity improved despite progressive RNFL thinning and optic disc pallor. We concluded that OCT may be useful for monitoring axonal loss but may not predict the final visual outcome.

Assessing the future of diffuse optical imaging technologies for breast cancer management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tromberg, Bruce J.; Pogue, Brian W.; Paulsen, Keith D.; Yodh, Arjun G.; Boas, David A.; Cerussi, Albert E.

2008-01-01

Diffuse optical imaging (DOI) is a noninvasive optical technique that employs near-infrared (NIR) light to quantitatively characterize the optical properties of thick tissues. Although NIR methods were first applied to breast transillumination (also called diaphanography) nearly 80 years ago, quantitative DOI methods employing time- or frequency-domain photon migration technologies have only recently been used for breast imaging (i.e., since the mid-1990s). In this review, the state of the art in DOI for breast cancer is outlined and a multi-institutional Network for Translational Research in Optical Imaging (NTROI) is described, which has been formed by the National Cancer Institute to advance diffuse optical spectroscopy and imaging (DOSI) for the purpose of improving breast cancer detection and clinical management. DOSI employs broadband technology both in near-infrared spectral and temporal signal domains in order to separate absorption from scattering and quantify uptake of multiple molecular probes based on absorption or fluorescence contrast. Additional dimensionality in the data is provided by integrating and co-registering the functional information of DOSI with x-ray mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which provide structural information or vascular flow information, respectively. Factors affecting DOSI performance, such as intrinsic and extrinsic contrast mechanisms, quantitation of biochemical components, image formation/visualization, and multimodality co-registration are under investigation in the ongoing research NTROI sites. One of the goals is to develop standardized DOSI platforms that can be used as stand-alone devices or in conjunction with MRI, mammography, or ultrasound. This broad-based, multidisciplinary effort is expected to provide new insight regarding the origins of breast disease and practical approaches for addressing several key challenges in breast cancer, including: Detecting disease in mammographically dense tissue

Accuracy of two optical chlorophyll meters in predicting chemical composition and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability of Brachiaria hybrid, Megathyrsus maximus, and Paspalum atratum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin P. Hughes

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of 2 optical chlorophyll meters: FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI and Yara N-Tester, in predicting neutral detergent fibre (NDF, acid detergent fibre (ADF, acid detergent lignin (ADL, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability (IVOMD of 3 tropical grasses. Optical chlorophyll measurements were taken at 3 stages (4, 8 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Brachiaria hybrid, and Megathyrsus maximus and at 6 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Paspalum atratum (cv. Ubon. Optical chlorophyll measurements showed the highest correlation (r = 0.57 to 0.85 with NDF concentration. The FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI was better than the Yara N-Tester in predicting NDF (R2 = 0.70 and ADF (R2 = 0.79 concentrations in Brachiaria hybrid and NDF (R2 = 0.79 in M. maximus. Similarly, FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI produced better estimates of 24 h IVOMD (IVOMD24h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.81 and IVOMD48h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.65 and M. maximus (R2 = 0.75. However, these prediction models had relatively low concordance correlation coefficients, i.e., CCC >0.90, but random errors were the main source of bias. It was, therefore, concluded that both optical chlorophyll meters were poor and unreliable predictors of ADIN and ADL concentrations. Overall, the FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI shows potential to produce useful estimates of IVOMD24h and ADF in Brachiaria hybrid and IVOMD48h and NDF concentrations in M. maximus.

Functional immunomics: microarray analysis of IgG autoantibody repertoires predicts the future response of mice to induced diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Quintana, Francisco J; Hagedorn, Peter H; Elizur, Gad; Merbl, Yifat; Domany, Eytan; Cohen, Irun R

2004-10-05

One's present repertoire of antibodies encodes the history of one's past immunological experience. Can the present autoantibody repertoire be consulted to predict resistance or susceptibility to the future development of an autoimmune disease? Here, we developed an antigen microarray chip and used bioinformatic analysis to study a model of type 1 diabetes developing in nonobese diabetic male mice in which the disease was accelerated and synchronized by exposing the mice to cyclophosphamide at 4 weeks of age. We obtained sera from 19 individual mice, treated the mice to induce cyclophosphamide-accelerated diabetes (CAD), and found, as expected, that 9 mice became severely diabetic, whereas 10 mice permanently resisted diabetes. We again obtained serum from each mouse after CAD induction. We then analyzed, by using rank-order and superparamagnetic clustering, the patterns of antibodies in individual mice to 266 different antigens spotted on the chip. A selected panel of 27 different antigens (10% of the array) revealed a pattern of IgG antibody reactivity in the pre-CAD sera that discriminated between the mice resistant or susceptible to CAD with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity (P = 0.017). Surprisingly, the set of IgG antibodies that was informative before CAD induction did not separate the resistant and susceptible groups after the onset of CAD; new antigens became critical for post-CAD repertoire discrimination. Thus, at least for a model disease, present antibody repertoires can predict future disease, predictive and diagnostic repertoires can differ, and decisive information about immune system behavior can be mined by bioinformatic technology. Repertoires matter.

Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

OpenAIRE

Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

2017-01-01

1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

Collective motion of predictive swarms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathaniel Rupprecht

Full Text Available Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can anticipate the future, and make predictions to gather resources more efficiently. Here we study a specific model of this kind, where agents aim to maximize their consumption of a diffusing resource, by attempting to predict the future of a resource field and the actions of other agents. Once the agents make a prediction, they are attracted to move towards regions that have, and will have, denser resources. We find that the further the agents attempt to see into the future, the more their attempts at prediction fail, and the less resources they consume. We also study the case where predictive agents compete against non-predictive agents and find the predictors perform better than the non-predictors only when their relative numbers are very small. We conclude that predictivity pays off either when the predictors do not see too far into the future or the number of predictors is small.

Development of Multiple Sclerosis in Patients with Optic Neuritis: Analysis of Predictive Factors

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Hacer Durmuş

2009-09-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Optic neuritis (ON is inflammation of the optic nerve that generally leads to transient loss of vision. Unilateral optic neuritis is quite common upon first presentation in multiple sclerosis (MS patients, but it may also remain as a clinically isolated syndrome. In this study we aimed to determine what factors are associated with the development of MS in isolated ON patients. METHODS: Medical charts of patients followed-up at Istanbul University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Neurology between 1987 and 2003 were screened for patients with isolated ON at first presentation. A cohort of 90 patients was thusly obtained. Clinical and demographic features, visual evoked potential, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF, and magnetic resonance imaging findings, and time to definitive MS according to McDonald’s criteria were recorded. RESULTS: In all, 50% of the patients developed definitive MS after 13 months (95% CI: 4.4-19.6. Two of the patients developed neuromyelitis optica during the course of their follow-up. The development of MS was significantly associated with the presence of a T2 lesion (p= 0.001, oligoclonal bands (OCBs in the CSF (p= 0.002, absence of papilledema (p= 0.027, absence of severe visual impairment (p= 0.016, and subacute (> 1 day visual impairment (p= 0.005, as per log rank testing. According to the Cox proportional hazard regression model, the presence of a T2 lesion (hazard ratio: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.5-15.4 and OCBs (hazard ratio: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.1-11.5 are strongly predictive of the progression to MS. CONCLUSION: As some previous studies have noted, the risk of developing MS after ON is significantly higher in the presence of a T2 lesion and OCBs in the CSF. We think that this should be taken into account before starting early treatment for MS. Recent studies on the pathogenesis of MS have suggested that early treatment of MS reduces neurological disability in the long term. Our results might aid patient selection for early

Prediction of future dispute concerning nuclear power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-04-01

This investigation is the third research on the public acceptance of nuclear power generation by the National Congress on Social Economics. In this study, how the energy dispute including that concerning nuclear power generation will develop in 1980s and 1990s, how the form of dispute and the point of controversy will change, were predicted. Though the maintenance of the concord of groups strongly regulates the behavior of people, recently they have become to exercise individual rights frequently. The transition to the society of dispute is the natural result of the modernization of society and the increase of richness. The proper prediction of social problems and the planning and execution of proper countermeasures are very important. The background, objective, basic viewpoint, range and procedure of this investigation, the change of social dispute, the history of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the basic viewpoint in the prediction of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the social situation in 1980s, the prediction and avoidance of the dispute in view of social and energy situations, and the fundamental strategy for seeking a clue to the solution in 1980s and 1990s are described. The establishment of neutral mediation organs and the flexible technologies of nuclear reactors are necessary. (Kako, I.)

Uncertainty in visual processes predicts geometrical optical illusions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fermüller, Cornelia; Malm, Henrik

2004-03-01

It is proposed in this paper that many geometrical optical illusions, as well as illusory patterns due to motion signals in line drawings, are due to the statistics of visual computations. The interpretation of image patterns is preceded by a step where image features such as lines, intersections of lines, or local image movement must be derived. However, there are many sources of noise or uncertainty in the formation and processing of images, and they cause problems in the estimation of these features; in particular, they cause bias. As a result, the locations of features are perceived erroneously and the appearance of the patterns is altered. The bias occurs with any visual processing of line features; under average conditions it is not large enough to be noticeable, but illusory patterns are such that the bias is highly pronounced. Thus, the broader message of this paper is that there is a general uncertainty principle which governs the workings of vision systems, and optical illusions are an artifact of this principle.

Optical Coherencetomography for Bladder Cancer-Ready as a Surrogate for Optical Biopsy? Results of a Prospective Mono-Centre Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karl, H. Stepp

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is no perfect noninvasive diagnostic technique for bladder cancer. Cystoscopy and transurethral resection (TUR are stil gold standard for the diagnosis of muscle invasive bladder cancer. On the other hand, Optical CoherenceTomography (OCT can be alternative in the future. OCT was the first applied for opthalmology. OCT provides layer by layer images from target tissues with high-resolution, optical cross-sectional tomographic imaging. OCT’s concept is similar to ultrasound, differently it use light for detection. OCT’s resolution may vary from 20 microns (μm up to 1 μm that depends on optical system and lightsource. The image penetration depth of OCT can reach to 2-3 mm. Recently, there are many research about OCT for the diagnosis of urogenital tumors in the literature. In this study, A.Karl reported sensitivity and specificty of OCT for detecting the presence of malignant lession as 100% and %65. But, this small study includes only 52 patients who have 166 suspicious lesions. Specifity of OCT was inadequate due to false positive images, in this report. Contrary, there were no false negative lesions and its sensitivity was 100% depend on all invasive tumors detected and staged correctly beyond the lamina propria. False positive results were associated with edema, inflammation and scar. The overall OCT sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, negative and positive predictive values are reported as 75-100%, 65-98%, 92%, 75% and 100% in the literature. We need more large-scale studies about this topic. It will be promissing technique for diagnostics of urogenital malignant lesions. OCT (optical biopsy will progress with tecnical development and it will be alternative method for staging of bladder cancer.

Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

2017-02-01

This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

Predicting hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in a future phase III HIV vaccine trial among high-risk adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Giocos, Georgina; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie

2008-11-01

The present study sought to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted stated hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in future Phase III HIV vaccine trials among South African adolescents. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) significantly predicted WTP. Of all the predictors, Subjective norms significantly predicted WTP (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.06-1.34). A stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that Subjective Norms (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.07-1.34) and Attitude towards participation in an HIV vaccine trial (OR = 1.32, 95% C.I. = 1.00-1.74) were significant predictors of WTP. The addition of Knowledge of HIV vaccines and HIV vaccine trials, Perceived self-risk of HIV infection, Health-promoting behaviours and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS yielded non-significant results. These findings provide support for the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and suggest that psychosocial factors may play an important role in WTP in Phase III HIV vaccine trials among adolescents.

Imaging of macrophage dynamics with optical coherence tomography in anterior ischemic optic neuropathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kokona, Despina; Häner, Nathanael U; Ebneter, Andreas; Zinkernagel, Martin S

2017-01-01

Anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (AION) is a relatively common cause of visual loss and results from hypoperfusion of the small arteries of the anterior portion of the optic nerve. AION is the leading cause of sudden optic nerve related vision loss with approximately 10 cases per 100'000 in the population over 50 years. To date there is no established treatment for AION and therefore a better understanding of the events occurring at the level of the optic nerve head (ONH) would be important to design future therapeutic strategies. The optical properties of the eye allow imaging of the optic nerve in vivo, which is a part of the CNS, during ischemia. Experimentally laser induced optic neuropathy (eLiON) displays similar anatomical features as anterior ischemic optic neuropathy in humans. After laser induced optic neuropathy we show that hyperreflective dots in optical coherence tomography correspond to mononuclear cells in histology. Using fluorescence-activated flow cytometry (FACS) we found these cells to peak one week after eLiON. These observations were translated to OCT findings in patients with AION, where similar dynamics of hyperreflective dots at the ONH were identified. Our data suggests that activated macrophages can be identified as hyperreflective dots in OCT. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Stunningly bright optical emission

Science.gov (United States)

Heinke, Craig O.

2017-12-01

The detection of bright, rapid optical pulsations from pulsar PSR J1023+0038 have provided a surprise for researchers working on neutron stars. This discovery poses more questions than it answers and will spur on future work and instrumentation.

Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance measurements from infrared spectra: elemental carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

2015-10-01

Elemental carbon (EC) is an important constituent of atmospheric particulate matter because it absorbs solar radiation influencing climate and visibility and it adversely affects human health. The EC measured by thermal methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) is operationally defined as the carbon that volatilizes from quartz filter samples at elevated temperatures in the presence of oxygen. Here, methods are presented to accurately predict TOR EC using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from atmospheric particulate matter collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters. This method is similar to the procedure developed for OC in prior work (Dillner and Takahama, 2015). Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive and nondestructive to the PTFE filter samples which are routinely collected for mass and elemental analysis in monitoring networks. FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 filter samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to collocated TOR EC measurements. The FT-IR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets. Two calibrations are developed: one developed from uniform distribution of samples across the EC mass range (Uniform EC) and one developed from a uniform distribution of Low EC mass samples (EC < 2.4 μg, Low Uniform EC). A hybrid approach which applies the Low EC calibration to Low EC samples and the Uniform EC calibration to all other samples is used to produce predictions for Low EC samples that have mean error on par with parallel TOR EC samples in the same mass range and an estimate of the minimum detection limit (MDL) that is on par with TOR EC MDL. For all samples, this hybrid approach leads to precise and accurate TOR EC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of determination (R2; 0.96), no bias (0.00 μg m-3, a

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

2005-05-01

forecast information: (1) the Monthly Industrial Meteorology Information Magazine (MIMIM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (2) the Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS), and (3) the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each of these forecasts is issued in a unique format: (1) MIMIM is a most-probable-event forecast, (2) GDAPS is a single series of deterministic forecasts, and (3) NCEP is an ensemble of deterministic forecasts. Other minor issues include how long the initial conditions influences the ESP accuracy, and how many ESP scenarios are needed to obtain the best accuracy. This presentation also addresses some future research that is needed for ESP in Korea.

Vectorial optical fields fundamentals and applications

CERN Document Server

2014-01-01

Polarization is a vector nature of light that plays an important role in optical science and engineering. While existing textbook treatments of light assume beams with spatially homogeneous polarization, there is an increasing interest in vectorial optical fields with spatially engineered states of polarization. New effects and phenomena have been predicted and observed for light beams with these unconventional polarization states. This edited review volume aims to provide a comprehensive overview and summarize the latest developments in this important emerging field of optics. This book will cover the fundamentals including mathematical and physical descriptions, experimental generation, manipulation, focusing, propagation, and the applications of the engineered vectorial optical fields in focal field engineering, plasmonic focusing and optical antenna, single molecular imaging, optical tweezers/trapping, as well as optical measurements and instrumentations. Readership: Students, professionals, post-graduat...

Optical Fiber Fusion Splicing

CERN Document Server

Yablon, Andrew D

2005-01-01

This book is an up-to-date treatment of optical fiber fusion splicing incorporating all the recent innovations in the field. It provides a toolbox of general strategies and specific techniques that the reader can apply when optimizing fusion splices between novel fibers. It specifically addresses considerations important for fusion splicing of contemporary specialty fibers including dispersion compensating fiber, erbium-doped gain fiber, polarization maintaining fiber, and microstructured fiber. Finally, it discusses the future of optical fiber fusion splicing including silica and non-silica based optical fibers as well as the trend toward increasing automation. Whilst serving as a self-contained reference work, abundant citations from the technical literature will enable readers to readily locate primary sources.

Addressing the Future in Ancient and Modern Times.

Science.gov (United States)

Roshwald, Mordecai

1982-01-01

Explores the similarities between ancient prophecy and modern futures prediction. The article suggests that the perceived degree of certainty in predictions of the future affects the patterns of emotional and rational responses in those receiving them. (AM)

Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

1987-01-01

A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

Optical spring effect in nanoelectromechanical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian, Feng; Zhou, Guangya; Du, Yu; Chau, Fook Siong; Deng, Jie

2014-01-01

In this Letter, we report a hybrid system consisting of nano-optical and nano-mechanical springs, in which the optical spring effect works to adjust the mechanical frequency of a nanoelectromechanical systems resonator. Nano-scale folded beams are fabricated as the mechanical springs and double-coupled one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities are used to pump the “optical spring.” The dynamic characteristics of this hybrid system are measured and analyzed at both low and high input optical powers. This study leads the physical phenomenon of optomechanics in complex nano-opto-electro-mechanical systems (NOEMS) and could benefit the future applications of NOEMS in chip-level communication and sensing

Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitrache, Ion

2002-01-01

During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

Modeling of steroid estrogen contamination in UK and South Australian rivers predicts modest increases in concentrations in the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Christopher; Williams, Richard; Kanda, Rakesh; Churchley, John; He, Ying; Thomas, Shaun; Goonan, Peter; Kumar, Anu; Jobling, Susan

2013-07-02

The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions. The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.

Optics education in an optometric setting

Science.gov (United States)

Putnam, Nicole M.

2017-08-01

The first year optics curriculum at the Arizona College of Optometry aims to provide students with an understanding of geometrical, physical, and visual optics principals that will be the foundation of their clinical understanding of the optics of the eye and its correction in advanced courses such as ophthalmic optics and contact lenses. Although the optics of the eye are a fantastic model to use in optics education, the clinical applications may not become apparent until later in the course of study. Successful strategies are needed to engage students and facilitate the understanding of optical principals and the growth of process skills including problem solving, analysis, and critical thinking that will help in their future as health care providers. These include the implementation of ophthalmic applications as early as possible, encouragement of group work including open office hours, and the use of video problem set solutions to supplement traditional static solutions.

Handbook of fiber optic data communication a practical guide to optical networking

CERN Document Server

DeCusatis, Casimer

2008-01-01

The third edition of this Handbook provides a comprehensive, easy to use guide to the field of optical fiber data communications. Written by experts in the industry from major companies such as IBM, Cisco and Nortel, the Handbook is a key reference for optical fiber technology, networking, protocols, applications, manufacturing, and future directions. It includes chapters on all the major industry standards, written by the same experts who developed them.This edition contains new material on transceiver form factors (QSFP, SFP +, XFP, X2), manufacturing standards, including JEDEC and R

A simple formula to predict the influence of the near-field in the optical control of confined electron systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeuchi, Takashi; Ohnuki, Shinichiro; Sako, Tokuei

2017-01-01

A simple formula for predicting the ratio between the field strengths of the incident laser pulse and of the near-field created in the vicinity of the target electron system has been proposed, in the context of optically controlling confined electron systems. The formula is easy to use and does not involve elaborate computation, thus enabling one to judge whether to use the time-consuming Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation or to stay with the conventional time-dependent Schrödinger equation approach that takes no near-field effect into account. As a demonstration we have examined in detail the system of an electron confined in a quasi-one-dimensional nanoscale potential well. The highly accurate Maxwell–Schrödinger hybrid simulation has been employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed formula in predicting the significance of the near-field effect. The near-field effect has shown to depend sensitively on the characteristics of the laser pulse and of the geometry of the confined electron system, which can be predicted well by the proposed formula. (paper)

The future of laboratory medicine - a 2014 perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kricka, Larry J; Polsky, Tracey G; Park, Jason Y; Fortina, Paolo

2015-01-01

Predicting the future is a difficult task. Not surprisingly, there are many examples and assumptions that have proved to be wrong. This review surveys the many predictions, beginning in 1887, about the future of laboratory medicine and its sub-specialties such as clinical chemistry and molecular pathology. It provides a commentary on the accuracy of the predictions and offers opinions on emerging technologies, economic factors and social developments that may play a role in shaping the future of laboratory medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optical design and tolerancing of an ophthalmological system

Science.gov (United States)

Sieber, Ingo; Martin, Thomas; Yi, Allen; Li, Likai; Rübenach, Olaf

2014-09-01

Tolerance analysis by means of simulation is an essential step in system integration. Tolerance analysis allows for predicting the performance of a system setup of real manufactured parts and for an estimation of the yield with respect to evaluation figures, such as performance requirements, systems specification or cost demands. Currently, optical freeform optics is gaining importance in optical systems design. The performance of freeform optics often strongly depends on the manufacturing accuracy of the surfaces. For this reason, a tolerance analysis with respect to the fabrication accuracy is of crucial importance. The characterization of form tolerances caused by the manufacturing process is based on the definition of straightness, flatness, roundness, and cylindricity. In case of freeform components, however, it is often impossible to define a form deviation by means of this standard classification. Hence, prediction of the impact of manufacturing tolerances on the optical performance is not possible by means of a conventional tolerance analysis. To carry out a tolerance analysis of the optical subsystem, including freeform optics, metrology data of the fabricated surfaces have to be integrated into the optical model. The focus of this article is on design for manufacturability of freeform optics with integrated alignment structures and on tolerance analysis of the optical subsystem based on the measured surface data of manufactured optical freeform components with respect to assembly and manufacturing tolerances. This approach will be reported here using an ophthalmological system as an example.

Optics Developments for X-Ray Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsey, Brian

2014-01-01

X-ray optics has revolutionized x-ray astronomy. The degree of background suppression that these afford, have led to a tremendous increase in sensitivity. The current Chandra observatory has the same collecting area (approx. 10(exp 3)sq cm) as the non-imaging UHURU observatory, the first x-ray observatory which launched in 1970, but has 5 orders of magnitude more sensitivity due to its focusing optics. In addition, its 0.5 arcsec angular resolution has revealed a wealth of structure in many cosmic x-ray sources. The Chandra observatory achieved its resolution by using relatively thick pieces of Zerodur glass, which were meticulously figured and polished to form the four-shell nested array. The resulting optical assembly weighed around 1600 kg, and cost approximately $0.5B. The challenge for future x-ray astronomy missions is to greatly increase the collecting area (by one or more orders of magnitude) while maintaining high angular resolution, and all within realistic mass and budget constraints. A review of the current status of US optics for x-ray astronomy will be provided along with the challenges for future developments.

A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

2017-12-01

Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

Optical Polarizationin Biomedical Applications

CERN Document Server

Tuchin, Valery V; Zimnyakov, Dmitry A

2006-01-01

Optical Polarization in Biomedical Applications introduces key developments in optical polarization methods for quantitative studies of tissues, while presenting the theory of polarization transfer in a random medium as a basis for the quantitative description of polarized light interaction with tissues. This theory uses the modified transfer equation for Stokes parameters and predicts the polarization structure of multiple scattered optical fields. The backscattering polarization matrices (Jones matrix and Mueller matrix) important for noninvasive medical diagnostic are introduced. The text also describes a number of diagnostic techniques such as CW polarization imaging and spectroscopy, polarization microscopy and cytometry. As a new tool for medical diagnosis, optical coherent polarization tomography is analyzed. The monograph also covers a range of biomedical applications, among them cataract and glaucoma diagnostics, glucose sensing, and the detection of bacteria.

Schema Driven Construction of Future Autobiographical Traumatic Events: The Future is Much More Troubling than the Past

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, David C.

2013-01-01

Research on future episodic thought has produced compelling theories and results in cognitive psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and clinical psychology. To integrate these using basic concepts and methods from autobiographical memory research, 76 undergraduates remembered past and imagined future positive and negative events that had or would have a major impact on them. Correlations of the online ratings of visual and auditory imagery, emotion, and other measures demonstrated that individuals used the same processes to the same extent to remember past and construct future events. These measures predicted the theoretically important metacognitive judgment of past reliving and future ‘preliving’ in similar ways. Future negative events had much higher scores than past negative events on standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events, scores in the range that would qualify for a diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which was replicated (n = 52) to check for order effects. Consistent with earlier work, future events had less sensory vividness. Thus, the imagined symptoms of future events were unlikely to be caused by sensory vividness. To confirm this, 63 undergraduates produced numerous added details between two constructions of the same negative future events, removing deficits in rated vividness with no increase in the standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events. Neuroticism predicted individuals’ reactions to negative past events but did not predict imagined reactions to future events. This set of novel methods and findings are interpreted in the contexts of the literatures of episodic future thought, autobiographical memory, PTSD, and classic schema theory. PMID:23607632

Maximizing the optical network capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayvel, Polina; Maher, Robert; Xu, Tianhua; Liga, Gabriele; Shevchenko, Nikita A; Lavery, Domaniç; Alvarado, Alex; Killey, Robert I

2016-03-06

Most of the digital data transmitted are carried by optical fibres, forming the great part of the national and international communication infrastructure. The information-carrying capacity of these networks has increased vastly over the past decades through the introduction of wavelength division multiplexing, advanced modulation formats, digital signal processing and improved optical fibre and amplifier technology. These developments sparked the communication revolution and the growth of the Internet, and have created an illusion of infinite capacity being available. But as the volume of data continues to increase, is there a limit to the capacity of an optical fibre communication channel? The optical fibre channel is nonlinear, and the intensity-dependent Kerr nonlinearity limit has been suggested as a fundamental limit to optical fibre capacity. Current research is focused on whether this is the case, and on linear and nonlinear techniques, both optical and electronic, to understand, unlock and maximize the capacity of optical communications in the nonlinear regime. This paper describes some of them and discusses future prospects for success in the quest for capacity. © 2016 The Authors.

International standards for optical wireless communications: state-of-the-art and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Marciniak, Marian

2017-10-01

As the number of active OWC installations is growing fast, the standards for compatibility of co-existing neighbouring systems are being developed. The paper addresses the Laser Safety (IEC standards), ITU-T Study Group 15 standards (G.640 Co-location longitudinally compatible interfaces for free space optical systems), ITU-Radiocommunication Sector standards (P.1817-1 Propagation data required for the design of terrestrial free-space optical links), and the IEEE Work in Progress - standardization activity on Visible Light Communications. International standards of FSO communications have been reviewed and discussed. ITU, IEC, and IEEE International standards for Free-Space Optical links have been reviewed. The system reliability and availability as well as security issues will be addressed as well in the talk.

Roadmap on transformation optics

Science.gov (United States)

McCall, Martin; Pendry, John B.; Galdi, Vincenzo; Lai, Yun; Horsley, S. A. R.; Li, Jensen; Zhu, Jian; Mitchell-Thomas, Rhiannon C.; Quevedo-Teruel, Oscar; Tassin, Philippe; Ginis, Vincent; Martini, Enrica; Minatti, Gabriele; Maci, Stefano; Ebrahimpouri, Mahsa; Hao, Yang; Kinsler, Paul; Gratus, Jonathan; Lukens, Joseph M.; Weiner, Andrew M.; Leonhardt, Ulf; Smolyaninov, Igor I.; Smolyaninova, Vera N.; Thompson, Robert T.; Wegener, Martin; Kadic, Muamer; Cummer, Steven A.

2018-06-01

Transformation optics asks, using Maxwell’s equations, what kind of electromagnetic medium recreates some smooth deformation of space? The guiding principle is Einstein’s principle of covariance: that any physical theory must take the same form in any coordinate system. This requirement fixes very precisely the required electromagnetic medium. The impact of this insight cannot be overestimated. Many practitioners were used to thinking that only a few analytic solutions to Maxwell’s equations existed, such as the monochromatic plane wave in a homogeneous, isotropic medium. At a stroke, transformation optics increases that landscape from ‘few’ to ‘infinity’, and to each of the infinitude of analytic solutions dreamt up by the researcher, there corresponds an electromagnetic medium capable of reproducing that solution precisely. The most striking example is the electromagnetic cloak, thought to be an unreachable dream of science fiction writers, but realised in the laboratory a few months after the papers proposing the possibility were published. But the practical challenges are considerable, requiring meta-media that are at once electrically and magnetically inhomogeneous and anisotropic. How far have we come since the first demonstrations over a decade ago? And what does the future hold? If the wizardry of perfect macroscopic optical invisibility still eludes us in practice, then what compromises still enable us to create interesting, useful, devices? While three-dimensional (3D) cloaking remains a significant technical challenge, much progress has been made in two dimensions. Carpet cloaking, wherein an object is hidden under a surface that appears optically flat, relaxes the constraints of extreme electromagnetic parameters. Surface wave cloaking guides sub-wavelength surface waves, making uneven surfaces appear flat. Two dimensions is also the setting in which conformal and complex coordinate transformations are realisable, and the possibilities in

Use of optical sensor for in-season nitrogen management and grain yield prediction in maize

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bandhu Raj Baral

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Precision agriculture technologies have developed optical sensors which can determine plant’s normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI.To evaluate the relationship between maize grain yield and early season NDVI readings, an experiment was conducted at farm land of National Maize Research Program, Rampur, Chitwan during winter season of 2012. Eight different levels of N 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 and 210 kg N/ha were applied for hybrid maize RML 32 × RML 17 to study grain yield response and NDVI measurement. Periodic NDVI was measured at 10 days interval from 55 days after sowing (DAS to 115 DAS by using Green seeker hand held crop sensor. Periodic NDVI measurement taken at a range of growing degree days (GDD was critical for predicting grain yield potential. Poor exponential relationship existed between NDVI from early reading measured before 208 GDD (55 DAS and grain yield. At the 261GDD (65DAS a strong relationship (R2 = 0.70 was achieved between NDVI and grain yield. Later sensor measurements after 571 GDD (95DAS failed to distinguish variation in green biomass as a result of canopy closure. N level had significantly influenced on NDVI reading, measured grain yield, calculated in season estimated yield (INSEY, predicted yield with added N (YPN, response index (RI and grain N demand. Measuring NDVI reading by GDD (261–571 GDD allow a practical window of opportunity for side dress N applications. This study showed that yield potential in maize could be accurately predicted in season with NDVI measured with the Green Seeker crop sensor.

EMPIRICAL PREDICTIONS FOR (SUB-)MILLIMETER LINE AND CONTINUUM DEEP FIELDS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Da Cunha, Elisabete; Walter, Fabian; Decarli, Roberto; Rix, Hans-Walter [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Bertoldi, Frank [Argelander Institute for Astronomy, University of Bonn, Auf dem Huegel 71, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Carilli, Chris [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Pete V. Domenici Array Science Center, P.O. Box O, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Daddi, Emanuele; Elbaz, David; Sargent, Mark [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM-CNRS-Universite Paris Diderot, Irfu/Service d' Astrophysique, CEA Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Ivison, Rob [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Maiolino, Roberto [Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, 19 J.J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom); Riechers, Dominik [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, MC 249-17, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Smail, Ian [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Weiss, Axel, E-mail: cunha@mpia.de [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany)

2013-03-01

Modern (sub-)millimeter/radio interferometers such as ALMA, JVLA, and the PdBI successor NOEMA will enable us to measure the dust and molecular gas emission from galaxies that have luminosities lower than the Milky Way, out to high redshifts and with unprecedented spatial resolution and sensitivity. This will provide new constraints on the star formation properties and gas reservoir in galaxies throughout cosmic times through dedicated deep field campaigns targeting the CO/[C II] lines and dust continuum emission in the (sub-)millimeter regime. In this paper, we present empirical predictions for such line and continuum deep fields. We base these predictions on the deepest available optical/near-infrared Advanced Camera for Surveys and NICMOS data on the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (over an area of about 12 arcmin{sup 2}). Using a physically motivated spectral energy distribution model, we fit the observed optical/near-infrared emission of 13,099 galaxies with redshifts up to z = 5, and obtain median-likelihood estimates of their stellar mass, star formation rate, dust attenuation, and dust luminosity. We combine the attenuated stellar spectra with a library of infrared emission models spanning a wide range of dust temperatures to derive statistical constraints on the dust emission in the infrared and (sub-)millimeter which are consistent with the observed optical/near-infrared emission in terms of energy balance. This allows us to estimate, for each galaxy, the (sub-)millimeter continuum flux densities in several ALMA, PdBI/NOEMA, and JVLA bands. As a consistency check, we verify that the 850 {mu}m number counts and extragalactic background light derived using our predictions are consistent with previous observations. Using empirical relations between the observed CO/[C II] line luminosities and the infrared luminosity of star-forming galaxies, we infer the luminosity of the CO(1-0) and [C II] lines from the estimated infrared luminosity of each galaxy in our sample

Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, J. R.

1999-01-01

This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. R. Wilson

1999-07-01

This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: organic carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

2015-03-01

Organic carbon (OC) can constitute 50% or more of the mass of atmospheric particulate matter. Typically, organic carbon is measured from a quartz fiber filter that has been exposed to a volume of ambient air and analyzed using thermal methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR). Here, methods are presented that show the feasibility of using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters to accurately predict TOR OC. This work marks an initial step in proposing a method that can reduce the operating costs of large air quality monitoring networks with an inexpensive, non-destructive analysis technique using routinely collected PTFE filter samples which, in addition to OC concentrations, can concurrently provide information regarding the composition of organic aerosol. This feasibility study suggests that the minimum detection limit and errors (or uncertainty) of FT-IR predictions are on par with TOR OC such that evaluation of long-term trends and epidemiological studies would not be significantly impacted. To develop and test the method, FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least-squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to TOR OC. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets by sampling site and date. The calibration produces precise and accurate TOR OC predictions of the test set samples by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of variation (R2; 0.96), low bias (0.02 μg m-3, the nominal IMPROVE sample volume is 32.8 m3), low error (0.08 μg m-3) and low normalized error (11%). These performance metrics can be achieved with various degrees of spectral pretreatment (e.g., including or excluding substrate contributions to the absorbances) and are comparable in precision to collocated TOR measurements. FT-IR spectra are also

Research on Retro-reflecting Modulation in Space Optical Communication System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yifeng; Wang, Guannan

2018-01-01

Retro-reflecting modulation space optical communication is a new type of free space optical communication technology. Unlike traditional free space optical communication system, it applys asymmetric optical systems to reduce the size, weight and power consumption of the system and can effectively solve the limits of traditional free space optical communication system application, so it can achieve the information transmission. This paper introduces the composition and working principle of retro-reflecting modulation optical communication system, analyzes the link budget of this system, reviews the types of optical system and optical modulator, summarizes this technology future research direction and application prospects.

Optics Designs of Final-Focus Systems for Future LHC Upgrades

CERN Document Server

Abelleira, J L; Zimmermann, Frank; Rivkin, Leonid

2014-01-01

The main topic of the thesis is the study of a novel option for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) comprising a large Piwinski angle, flat beams, and crab waists. Flat beams and crab waists are not only pre-requisites for a crab-waist scheme, but, even by themselves; each of these two elements alone could boost the luminosity of the existing collider as built. The new optics involves an upgrade of the interaction region of the two high-luminosity experiments, ATLAS and CMS, in order to provide them with a substantially higher luminosity. To this end, a flat-beam optics scenario has been explored for the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC), with a much reduced vertical beta function at the interaction point (IP), $\\beta_y^*$. In addition, a large Piwinski angle is considered. Advantages of a large Piwinski angle include a reduction in the hourglass effect over the length of the collision area, which allows for the significant $\\beta_y^*$ decrease. In addition there is a reduction of the be...

X-ray quantum optics with Moessbauer nuclei in thin-film cavities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heeg, Kilian Peter

2014-12-09

In this thesis thin-film cavities with embedded Moessbauer nuclei probed by near-resonant X-ray light are studied from a quantum optical perspective. A theoretical framework is developed and compact expressions for the observables are derived for the linear excitation regime, which is encountered in current experiments. Even advanced cavity layouts can be modeled in excellent agreement with the results of previous experiments and semi-classical approaches. In the absence of magnetic hyperfine splitting, the spectral response of the system is found to be formed by tunable Fano profiles. An experimental implementation of this line shape control allows to extract spectroscopic signatures with high precision and to reconstruct the phase of the nuclear transition in good agreement with the theoretical predictions. The alignment of medium magnetization and polarization control of the X-rays enable to engineer advanced quantum optical level schemes, in which vacuum induced coherence effects are predicted and successfully demonstrated in an experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that group velocity control for x-ray pulses can be achieved in the cavity. A scheme for its observation is proposed and then employed to experimentally confirm sub-luminal X-ray propagation. Finally, non-linear effects, which could become accessible with future light sources, are explored and a non-linear line shape control mechanism is discussed.

Nonlinear optics principles and applications

CERN Document Server

Li, Chunfei

2017-01-01

This book reflects the latest advances in nonlinear optics. Besides the simple, strict mathematical deduction, it also discusses the experimental verification and possible future applications, such as the all-optical switches. It consistently uses the practical unit system throughout. It employs simple physical images, such as "light waves" and "photons" to systematically explain the main principles of nonlinear optical effects. It uses the first-order nonlinear wave equation in frequency domain under the condition of “slowly varying amplitude approximation" and the classical model of the interaction between the light and electric dipole. At the same time, it also uses the rate equations based on the energy-level transition of particle systems excited by photons and the energy and momentum conservation principles to explain the nonlinear optical phenomenon. The book is intended for researchers, engineers and graduate students in the field of the optics, optoelectronics, fiber communication, information tech...

Quantum optics with semiconductor nanostructures

CERN Document Server

Jahnke, Frank

2012-01-01

A guide to the theory, application and potential of semiconductor nanostructures in the exploration of quantum optics. It offers an overview of resonance fluorescence emission.$bAn understanding of the interaction between light and matter on a quantum level is of fundamental interest and has many applications in optical technologies. The quantum nature of the interaction has recently attracted great attention for applications of semiconductor nanostructures in quantum information processing. Quantum optics with semiconductor nanostructures is a key guide to the theory, experimental realisation, and future potential of semiconductor nanostructures in the exploration of quantum optics. Part one provides a comprehensive overview of single quantum dot systems, beginning with a look at resonance fluorescence emission. Quantum optics with single quantum dots in photonic crystal and micro cavities are explored in detail, before part two goes on to review nanolasers with quantum dot emitters. Light-matter interaction...

CONFERENCE NOTE: European Optical Society, Topical Meeting Optical Metrology and Nanotechnology, Engelberg, Switzerland, 27 30 March 1994

Science.gov (United States)

1993-01-01

This meeting, organized by the Paul Scherrer Institute's Department of Applied Solid State Physics, will be held from 27 30 March 1994 at the Hotel Regina-Titlis, Engelberg, Switzerland. The aim is to bring together scientists from two important fields of current research and increasing industrial relevance. Optical metrology is a traditional discipline of applied optics which reached the nanometre scale a long time ago. Nanotechnology is setting new limits and represents a major challenge to metrology, as well as offering new opportunities to optics. The meeting is intended to help define a common future for optical metrology and nanotechnology. Topics to be covered include: nanometre position control and measuring techniques ultrahigh precision interferometry scanning probe microscopy (AFM, SNOM, etc.) surface modification by scanning probe methods precision surface fabrication and characterization nanolithography micro-optics, diffractive optics components, including systems and applications subwavelength optical structures synthetic optical materials structures and technologies for X-ray optics. For further information please contact: Jens Gobrecht (Secretary), Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen-PSI, Switzerland.Tel. (41)56992529; Fax (41) 5698 2635.

Fibre Optic Communication Key Devices

CERN Document Server

Grote, Norbert

2012-01-01

The book gives an in-depth description of the key devices of current and next generation fibre optic communication networks. In particular, the book covers devices such as semiconductor lasers, optical amplifiers, modulators, wavelength filters, and detectors but the relevant properties of optical fibres as well. The presentations include the physical principles underlying the various devices, the technologies used for the realization of the different devices, typical performance characteristics and limitations, and development trends towards more advanced components are also illustrated. Thus the scope of the book spans relevant principles, state-of-the-art implementations, the status of current research and expected future components.

Fabrication challenges associated with conformal optics

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, John; Eichholtz, Richard A.; Sulzbach, Frank C.

2001-09-01

A conformal optic is typically an optical window that conforms smoothly to the external shape of a system platform to improve aerodynamics. Conformal optics can be on-axis, such as an ogive missile dome, or off-axis, such as in a free form airplane wing. A common example of conformal optics is the automotive head light window that conforms to the body of the car aerodynamics and aesthetics. The unusual shape of conformal optics creates tremendous challenges for design, manufacturing, and testing. This paper will discuss fabrication methods that have been successfully demonstrated to produce conformal missile domes and associated wavefront corrector elements. It will identify challenges foreseen with more complex free-form configurations. Work presented in this paper was directed by the Precision Conformal Optics Consortium (PCOT). PCOT is comprised of both industrial and academic members who teamed to develop and demonstrate conformal optical systems suitable for insertion into future military programs. The consortium was funded under DARPA agreement number MDA972-96-9-08000.

Anatomically accurate, finite model eye for optical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, H L; Brennan, N A

1997-08-01

There is a need for a schematic eye that models vision accurately under various conditions such as refractive surgical procedures, contact lens and spectacle wear, and near vision. Here we propose a new model eye close to anatomical, biometric, and optical realities. This is a finite model with four aspheric refracting surfaces and a gradient-index lens. It has an equivalent power of 60.35 D and an axial length of 23.95 mm. The new model eye provides spherical aberration values within the limits of empirical results and predicts chromatic aberration for wavelengths between 380 and 750 nm. It provides a model for calculating optical transfer functions and predicting optical performance of the eye.

Probing the negative permittivity perfect lens at optical frequencies using near-field optics and single molecule detection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moerland, R.J.; van Hulst, N.F.; Gersen, H.; Kuipers, L.

2005-01-01

Recently, the existence of a perfect lens has been predicted, made of an artificial material that has a negative electric permittivity and a negative magnetic permeability. For optical frequencies a poormans version is predicted to exist in the sub-wavelength limit. Then, only the permittivity has

The Future of Medical Dosimetry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Robert D., E-mail: robert_adams@med.unc.edu

2015-07-01

The world of health care delivery is becoming increasingly complex. The purpose of this manuscript is to analyze current metrics and analytically predict future practices and principles of medical dosimetry. The results indicate five potential areas precipitating change factors: a) evolutionary and revolutionary thinking processes, b) social factors, c) economic factors, d) political factors, and e) technological factors. Outcomes indicate that significant changes will occur in the job structure and content of being a practicing medical dosimetrist. Discussion indicates potential variables that can occur within each process and change factor and how the predicted outcomes can deviate from normative values. Finally, based on predicted outcomes, future opportunities for medical dosimetrists are given.

Micromanipulation and microfabrication for optical microrobotics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palima, Darwin; Bañas, Andrew Rafael; Vizsnyiczai, Gaszton

2012-01-01

Robotics can use optics feedback in vision-based control of intelligent robotic guidance systems. With light’s miniscule momentum, shrinking robots down to the microscale regime creates opportunities for exploiting optical forces and torques in microrobotic actuation and control. Indeed...... of the trapped microstructure that can be achieved when using static traps in the BWS. This can be generalized, in the future, towards a structural shaping optimization strategy for optimally controlling microstructures to complement approaches based on lightshaping. We also show that light channeled...... to microfabricated, free-standing waveguides can be used not only to redirect light for targeted delivery of optical energy but can also for targeted delivery of optical force, which can serve to further extend the manipulation arms in optical robotics. Moreover, light deflection with waveguide also creates a recoil...

Technologies for all-optical wavelength conversion in DWDM networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wolfson, David; Fjelde, Tina; Kloch, Allan

2001-01-01

Different techniques for all-optical wavelength conversion are reviewed and the advantages and disadvantages seen from a system perspective are highlighted. All-optical wavelength conversion will play a major role in making cost-effective network nodes in future high-speed WDM networks, where...

Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

OpenAIRE

Magister, Tone

2009-01-01

The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

Future-Oriented LCA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

2018-01-01

LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

Enhancement and suppression of opto-acoustic parametric interactions using optical feedback

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Zhongyang; Zhao Chunnong; Ju, L.; Blair, D. G.

2010-01-01

A three mode opto-acoustic parametric amplifier (OAPA) is created when two orthogonal optical modes in a high finesse optical cavity are coupled via an acoustic mode of the cavity mirror. Such interactions are predicted to occur in advanced long baseline gravitational wave detectors. They can have high positive gain, which leads to strong parametric instability. Here we show that an optical feedback scheme can enhance or suppress the parametric gain of an OAPA, allowing exploration of three-mode parametric interactions, especially in cavity systems that have insufficient optical power to achieve spontaneous instability. We derive analytical equations and show that optical feedback is capable of controlling predicted instabilities in advanced gravitational wave detectors within a time scale of 13∼10 s.

OPTICAL FIBRES AND FIBREOPTIC SENSORS: Spun microstructured optical fibresfor Faraday effect current sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Chamorovsky, Yury K.; Starostin, Nikolay I.; Morshnev, Sergey K.; Gubin, Vladimir P.; Ryabko, Maksim V.; Sazonov, Aleksandr I.; Vorob'ev, Igor'L.

2009-11-01

We report a simple design of spun holey fibres and the first experimental study of the magneto-optical response of spun microstructured fibres with high built-in birefringence. Such fibres enable the Faraday-effect-induced phase shift to effectively accumulate in a magnetic field even at very small coiling diameters. For example, the magneto-optical sensitivity of a 5-mm-diameter fibre coil consisting of 100 turns is ~70% that of an ideal fibre, in good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Determining degree of optic nerve edema from color fundus photography

Science.gov (United States)

Agne, Jason; Wang, Jui-Kai; Kardon, Randy H.; Garvin, Mona K.

2015-03-01

Swelling of the optic nerve head (ONH) is subjectively assessed by clinicians using the Frisén scale. It is believed that a direct measurement of the ONH volume would serve as a better representation of the swelling. However, a direct measurement requires optic nerve imaging with spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) and 3D segmentation of the resulting images, which is not always available during clinical evaluation. Furthermore, telemedical imaging of the eye at remote locations is more feasible with non-mydriatic fundus cameras which are less costly than OCT imagers. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a more quantitative analysis of optic nerve swelling on a continuous scale, similar to SD-OCT. Here, we select features from more commonly available 2D fundus images and use them to predict ONH volume. Twenty-six features were extracted from each of 48 color fundus images. The features include attributes of the blood vessels, optic nerve head, and peripapillary retina areas. These features were used in a regression analysis to predict ONH volume, as computed by a segmentation of the SD-OCT image. The results of the regression analysis yielded a mean square error of 2.43 mm3 and a correlation coefficient between computed and predicted volumes of R = 0:771, which suggests that ONH volume may be predicted from fundus features alone.

The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

Surveying Future Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Carlstrom, John E.

2016-06-01

The now standard model of cosmology has been tested and refined by the analysis of increasingly sensitive, large astronomical surveys, especially with statistically significant millimeter-wave surveys of the cosmic microwave background and optical surveys of the distribution of galaxies. This talk will offer a glimpse of the future, which promises an acceleration of this trend with cosmological information coming from new surveys across the electromagnetic spectrum as well as particles and even gravitational waves.

Robust adiabatic approach to optical spin entangling in coupled quantum dots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauger, Erik M; Benjamin, Simon C; Lovett, Brendon W; Nazir, Ahsan; Stace, Thomas M

2008-01-01

Excitonic transitions offer a possible route to ultrafast optical spin manipulation in coupled nanostructures. We perform here a detailed study of the three principal exciton-mediated decoherence channels for optically controlled electron spin qubits in coupled quantum dots: radiative decay of the excitonic state, exciton-phonon interactions, and Landau-Zener transitions between laser-dressed states. We consider a scheme for producing an entangling controlled-phase gate on a pair of coupled spins which, in its simplest dynamic form, renders the system subject to fast decoherence rates associated with exciton creation during the gating operation. In contrast, we show that an adiabatic approach employing off-resonant laser excitation allows us to suppress all sources of decoherence simultaneously, significantly increasing the fidelity of operations at only a relatively small gating time cost. We find that controlled-phase gates accurate to one part in 10 2 can realistically be achieved with the adiabatic approach, whereas the conventional dynamic approach does not appear to support a fidelity suitable for scalable quantum computation. Our predictions could be demonstrated experimentally in the near future

Performance Study of optical Modulator based on electrooptic effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palodiya, V; Raghuwanshi, S K

2016-01-01

In this paper, we have studied and derive performance parameter of highly integrated Lithium Niobate optical modulator. This is a chirp free modulator having low switching voltage and large bandwidth. For an external modulator in which travelling-wave electrodes length L imposed the modulating switching voltage, the product of V_π and L is fixed for a given electro optic material Lithium Niobate. We investigate to achieve a low V_π by both magnitude of the electro-optic coefficient for a wide variety of electro-optic materials. A Sellmeier equation for the extraordinary index of congruent lithium niobate is derived. For phase-matching, predictions are accmate for temperature between room temperature 250°C and wavelength ranging from 0.4 to 5µm. The Sellmeier equations predict more accmately refractive indices at long wavelengths. Theoretical result is confirmed by simulated results. We have analysed the various parameters such as switching voltage, device performance index, time constant, transmittance, cut-off frequency, 3-dB bandwidth, power absorption coefficient and transmission bit rate of Lithium Niobate optical Modulator based on electro -optic effect. (paper)

Optically pumped polarized H- ion source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, L.W.

1986-01-01

The current status and future prospects for the optically pumped polarized H - ion source are discussed. At the present time H - ion currents of 60 μA and with a polarization of 65% have been produced. The ion current and polarization can be increased significantly if the optically pumped Na charge exchange target density and polarization can be increased. Studies of wall surfaces that permit many bounces before depolarizing the Na electron spin and studies of radiation trapping in optically pumped Na indicate that the Na target density and polarization can be increased substantially. 27 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Radiative properties of optical board embedded with optical black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, J.; Liu, L.H.; Hsu, P.-F.

2011-01-01

Unique radiative properties, such as wavelength-selective transmission or absorption, have been intensively studied. Historically, geometries for wavelength-selective of light absorption were developed based on metallic periodical structures, which were only applied in the case of TM wave incidence due to the excitation of surface plasmons. In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to selective wavelength of light absorption (both TE and TM waves), based on an optical board periodical embedded with optical black holes. Numerical work was carried out to study such structure's radiative properties within the wavelength range of 1-100 μm. The electromagnetic wave transmission through such a structure is predicted by solving Maxwell's equations using the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. Spectral absorptance varies with the period of optical black holes. When the incidence wavelength is much larger than the inner core radius, most of the light energy will be transmitted through the inner core. Otherwise, the energy will be mainly absorbed. Numerical results of the radiative properties of the optical board with different incidence wavelengths are also obtained. The effect of the oblique incidence wave is investigated. This study helps us gain a better understanding of the radiative properties of an optical board embedded with optical black holes and develop an alternative approach to selective light absorption.

Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

Science.gov (United States)

Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Compact super-wideband optical antenna

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wen C.; Forber, Richard; Bui, Kenneth

2009-05-01

We present progress on advanced optical antennas, which are compact, small size-weight-power units capable to receive super wideband radiated RF signals from 30 MHz to over 3 GHz. Based on electro-optical modulation of fiber-coupled guided wave light, these dielectric E-field sensors exhibit dipole-like azimuthal omni directionality, and combine small size (channels, and high EO sensing materials. The antenna system photonic link consists of a 1550 nm PM fiber-pigtailed laser, a specialized optical modulator antenna in channel waveguide format, a wideband photoreceiver, and optical phase stabilizing components. The optical modulator antenna design employs a dielectric (no electrode) Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI) arranged so that sensing RF bandwidth is not limited by optical transit time effects, and MZI phase drift is bias stabilized. For a prototype optical antenna system that is < 100 in3, < 10 W, < 5 lbs, we present test data on sensitivity (< 20 mV/m-Hz1/2), RF bandwidth, and antenna directionality, and show good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Fast incorporation of optical flow into active polygons.

Science.gov (United States)

Unal, Gozde; Krim, Hamid; Yezzi, Anthony

2005-06-01

In this paper, we first reconsider, in a different light, the addition of a prediction step to active contour-based visual tracking using an optical flow and clarify the local computation of the latter along the boundaries of continuous active contours with appropriate regularizers. We subsequently detail our contribution of computing an optical flow-based prediction step directly from the parameters of an active polygon, and of exploiting it in object tracking. This is in contrast to an explicitly separate computation of the optical flow and its ad hoc application. It also provides an inherent regularization effect resulting from integrating measurements along polygon edges. As a result, we completely avoid the need of adding ad hoc regularizing terms to the optical flow computations, and the inevitably arbitrary associated weighting parameters. This direct integration of optical flow into the active polygon framework distinguishes this technique from most previous contour-based approaches, where regularization terms are theoretically, as well as practically, essential. The greater robustness and speed due to a reduced number of parameters of this technique are additional and appealing features.

Comparison and classification of all-optical CDMA systems for future telecommunication networks

Science.gov (United States)

Iversen, Kay; Hampicke, Dirk

1995-12-01

This paper shows the state of the art in fiber optical code-division multiple-access (CDMA). Recent work in this area for both, systems and sequences is reviewed and analyzed. For that purpose a classification of systems, corresponding to the manner of signal processing and a classification of known (0,1)-sequences are presented. It is shown that due to the limits by currently available device technology especially two techniques are promising for implementation in broadband telecommunication networks: spectral encoding with integrated optical filters and CDMA in combination with wavelength multiple access schemes. Further an overview about some important experiments in this field is given.

Predicting the Future Contribution of Himalayan Debris-covered Glaciers to River Discharge: Advances and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Quincey, D. J.; Hubbard, B. P.; Klaar, M. J.; Miles, E.; Miles, K.; Rowan, A. V.; King, O.; Watson, C. S.

2017-12-01

The glaciers and snowfields of the Himalaya are the ultimate source for the many rivers that flow across the Asian subcontinent, but they are diminishing rapidly in the face of sustained climatic change. Predictions of how future river discharge may vary through space and time are hampered by two major knowledge gaps. First, simulations of glacier mass loss in high Asia are severely limited by data availability and assumptions made in the parameterisation of glacier models. Consequently, projections of glacier change vary widely; in Nepal for example, recent estimates of volumetric ice loss by AD2100 have ranged between 8% and 99%. A second major gap in knowledge lies in the coupling between glaciers and downstream areas, and specifically in quantifying the relative contributions of different sources to river flow. Although it is clear that ice and snow melt dominates flow for considerable distances downstream, how this contribution interacts with groundwater supplies with increasing distance from its source remains poorly understood. This presentation will review recent work that closes some of the knowledge gaps in understanding debris-covered glacier behaviour including new results from drilling work on the Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Additionally, it will report on the outputs from an interdisciplinary study in the Annapurna region of Nepal, which is focussing specifically on disaggregating the relative contributions to flow using isotope-based hydrograph separations. It will finish by exploring the most likely drivers of future changes to water supply, including an evaluation of the impact of glacial lake development, and by identifying the main challenges for future related research.

A modular optical sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Conklin, John Albert

This dissertation presents the design of a modular, fiber-optic sensor and the results obtained from testing the modular sensor. The modular fiber-optic sensor is constructed in such manner that the sensor diaphragm can be replaced with different configurations to detect numerous physical phenomena. Additionally, different fiber-optic detection systems can be attached to the sensor. Initially, the modular sensor was developed to be used by university of students to investigate realistic optical sensors and detection systems to prepare for advance studies of micro-optical mechanical systems (MOMS). The design accomplishes this by doing two things. First, the design significantly lowers the costs associated with studying optical sensors by modularizing the sensor design. Second, the sensor broadens the number of physical phenomena that students can apply optical sensing techniques to in a fiber optics sensor course. The dissertation is divided into seven chapters covering the historical development of fiber-optic sensors, a theoretical overview of fiber-optic sensors, the design, fabrication, and the testing of the modular sensor developed in the course of this work. Chapter 1 discusses, in detail, how this dissertation is organized and states the purpose of the dissertation. Chapter 2 presents an historical overview of the development of optical fibers, optical pressure sensors, and fibers, optical pressure sensors, and optical microphones. Chapter 3 reviews the theory of multi-fiber optic detection systems, optical microphones, and pressure sensors. Chapter 4 presents the design details of the modular, optical sensor. Chapter 5 delves into how the modular sensor is fabricated and how the detection systems are constructed. Chapter 6 presents the data collected from the microphone and pressure sensor configurations of the modular sensor. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses the data collected and draws conclusions about the design based on the data collected. Chapter 7 also

Predictive technologies: Can smart tools augment the brain’s predictive abilities?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni ePezzulo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The ability of looking into the future – namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body – represents a fundamental function of human (and animal brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball’s direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent’s next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes – in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behaviour of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain’s ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality.

Solar Adaptive Optics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas R. Rimmele

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Adaptive optics (AO has become an indispensable tool at ground-based solar telescopes. AO enables the ground-based observer to overcome the adverse effects of atmospheric seeing and obtain diffraction limited observations. Over the last decade adaptive optics systems have been deployed at major ground-based solar telescopes and revitalized ground-based solar astronomy. The relatively small aperture of solar telescopes and the bright source make solar AO possible for visible wavelengths where the majority of solar observations are still performed. Solar AO systems enable diffraction limited observations of the Sun for a significant fraction of the available observing time at ground-based solar telescopes, which often have a larger aperture than equivalent space based observatories, such as HINODE. New ground breaking scientific results have been achieved with solar adaptive optics and this trend continues. New large aperture telescopes are currently being deployed or are under construction. With the aid of solar AO these telescopes will obtain observations of the highly structured and dynamic solar atmosphere with unprecedented resolution. This paper reviews solar adaptive optics techniques and summarizes the recent progress in the field of solar adaptive optics. An outlook to future solar AO developments, including a discussion of Multi-Conjugate AO (MCAO and Ground-Layer AO (GLAO will be given.

Transformation optics on a silicon platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabrielli, Lucas H; Lipson, Michal

2011-01-01

Transformation optics allows the creation of innovative devices; however, its implementation in the optical domain remains challenging. We describe here our process to design and fabricate such devices using silicon as a platform for broad band operation in the optical domain. We discuss the approximations and methods employed to overcome the challenges of using dielectric materials as a platform for transformation optics, such as the anisotropy and gradient refractive index implementation. These encompass conformal and quasi-conformal mappings, and a dithering process to discretize and quantize the continuously inhomogeneous index function. We show examples of devices that we fabricated and tested, including the carpet invisibility cloak, a broad bandwidth light concentrator, and a perfect imaging device, known as Maxwell's fish eye lens. Finally, we touch on future directions under investigation to further develop transformation optics based on dielectric materials

Development of the prediction technology of cable disconnection of in-core neutron detector for the future high-temperature gas cooled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimazaki, Yosuke; Sawahata, Hiroaki; Kawamoto, Taiki; Suzuki, Hisashi; Shinohara, Masanori; Honda, Yuki; Katsuyama, Kozo; Takada, Shoji; Sawa, Kazuhiro

2015-01-01

Maintenance technologies for the reactor system have been developed by using the high-temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR). One of the important purposes of development is to accumulate the experiences and data to satisfy the availability of operation up to 90% by shortening the duration of the periodical maintenance for the future HTGRs by shifting from the time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The technical issue of the maintenance of in-core neutron detector, wide range monitor (WRM), is to predict the malfunction caused by cable disconnection to plan the replacement schedule. This is because that it is difficult to observe directly inside of the WRM in detail. The electrical inspection method was proposed to detect and predict the cable disconnection of the WRM by remote monitoring from outside of the reactor by using the time domain reflectometry and so on. The disconnection position, which was specified by the electrical method, was identified by non-destructive and destructive inspection. The accumulated data is expected to be contributed for advanced maintenance of future HTGRs. (author)

Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

2015-01-01

A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

Quantifying Factors Affecting Optical Turbulence Propagation Using a Controlled Towed Vehicle From an Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

the optical system design and/or to predict their operational conditions. The main objective of this study is to quantify optical turbulence in the...design and/or to predict their operational conditions. The main objective of this study is to quantify optical turbulence in the marine atmospheric...Research Facility Pier, Duck , North Carolina. Source: Field Research Facility (1992). ..........................18 Figure 6. Data Collection

Investigation on performance of all optical buffer with large dynamical delay time based on cascaded double loop optical buffers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yong-Jun, Wang; Xiang-Jun, Xin; Xiao-Lei, Zhang; Chong-Qing, Wu; Kuang-Lu, Yu

2010-01-01

Optical buffers are critical for optical signal processing in future optical packet-switched networks. In this paper, a theoretical study as well as an experimental demonstration on a new optical buffer with large dynamical delay time is carried out based on cascaded double loop optical buffers (DLOBs). It is found that pulse distortion can be restrained by a negative optical control mode when the optical packet is in the loop. Noise analysis indicates that it is feasible to realise a large variable delay range by cascaded DLOBs. These conclusions are validated by the experiment system with 4-stage cascaded DLOBs. Both the theoretical simulations and the experimental results indicate that a large delay range of 1–9999 times the basic delay unit and a fine granularity of 25 ns can be achieved by the cascaded DLOBs. The performance of the cascaded DLOBs is suitable for the all optical networks. (classical areas of phenomenology)

Fibre Optic Gyroscope Developments Using Integrated Optic Components

Science.gov (United States)

Minford, W. J.; DePaula, R. M.

1988-09-01

-resonant polarizer. JPL and AT&T-BL have an effort, under a NASA contract, to investigate other integrated optic gyro front-end circuits with the eventual goal of combining all minimum configuration functions on a single substrate. The performance of a gyroscope with a LiNbO3 polarizer, 3dB splitter, and phase modulator was discussed along with the waveguide device characteristics. The key advantages, future trends, and present issues involved with using LiNbO3 waveguide devices in a gyroscope were addressed.

Predictive medicine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

2015-01-01

In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

MgB2 thin-film bolometer for applications in far-infrared instruments on future planetary missions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakew, B.; Aslam, S.; Brasunas, J.; Cao, N.; Costen, N.; La, A.; Nguyen, L.; Stevenson, T.; Waczynski, A.

2012-01-01

A SiN membrane based MgB 2 thin-film bolometer, with a non-optimized absorber, has been fabricated that shows an electrical noise equivalent power of 2.56 × 10 -13 W/√Hz operating at 30 Hz and a responsivity of 702 kV/W. It is predicted that with the inclusion of a gold black absorber that an optical specific detectivity of 8.3 × 10 10 cm/√Hz/W at an operational frequency of 10 Hz, can be realized for integration into future planetary exploration instrumentation where high sensitivity is required in the 17-250 μm spectral wavelength range.

Developing a trend prediction model of subsurface damage for fixed-abrasive grinding of optics by cup wheels.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zhichao; Cheng, Haobo

2016-11-10

Fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels plays an important role in the production of precision optics. During cup wheel grinding, we strive for a large removal rate while maintaining fine integrity on the surface and subsurface layers (academically recognized as surface roughness and subsurface damage, respectively). This study develops a theoretical model used to predict the trend of subsurface damage of optics (with respect to various grinding parameters) in fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels. It is derived from the maximum undeformed chip thickness model, and it successfully correlates the pivotal parameters of cup wheel grinding with the subsurface damage depth. The efficiency of this model is then demonstrated by a set of experiments performed on a cup wheel grinding machine. In these experiments, the characteristics of subsurface damage are inspected by a wedge-polishing plus microscopic inspection method, revealing that the subsurface damage induced in cup wheel grinding is composed of craterlike morphologies and slender cracks, with depth ranging from ∼6.2 to ∼13.2  μm under the specified grinding parameters. With the help of the proposed model, an optimized grinding strategy is suggested for realizing fine subsurface integrity as well as high removal rate, which can alleviate the workload of subsequent lapping and polishing.

Gingin High Optical Power Test Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, C; Blair, D G; Barrigo, P

2006-01-01

The Australian Consortium for Gravitational Wave Astronomy (ACIGA) in collaboration with LIGO is developing a high optical power research facility at the AIGO site, Gingin, Western Australia. Research at the facility will provide solutions to the problems that advanced gravitational wave detectors will encounter with extremely high optical power. The problems include thermal lensing and parametric instabilities. This article will present the status of the facility and the plan for the future experiments

The fundus photo has met its match: optical coherence tomography and adaptive optics ophthalmoscopy are here to stay.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Jessica I W

2016-05-01

Over the past 25 years, optical coherence tomography (OCT) and adaptive optics (AO) ophthalmoscopy have revolutionised our ability to non-invasively observe the living retina. The purpose of this review is to highlight the techniques and human clinical applications of recent advances in OCT and adaptive optics scanning laser/light ophthalmoscopy (AOSLO) ophthalmic imaging. Optical coherence tomography retinal and optic nerve head (ONH) imaging technology allows high resolution in the axial direction resulting in cross-sectional visualisation of retinal and ONH lamination. Complementary AO ophthalmoscopy gives high resolution in the transverse direction resulting in en face visualisation of retinal cell mosaics. Innovative detection schemes applied to OCT and AOSLO technologies (such as spectral domain OCT, OCT angiography, confocal and non-confocal AOSLO, fluorescence, and AO-OCT) have enabled high contrast between retinal and ONH structures in three dimensions and have allowed in vivo retinal imaging to approach that of histological quality. In addition, both OCT and AOSLO have shown the capability to detect retinal reflectance changes in response to visual stimuli, paving the way for future studies to investigate objective biomarkers of visual function at the cellular level. Increasingly, these imaging techniques are being applied to clinical studies of the normal and diseased visual system. Optical coherence tomography and AOSLO technologies are capable of elucidating the structure and function of the retina and ONH noninvasively with unprecedented resolution and contrast. The techniques have proven their worth in both basic science and clinical applications and each will continue to be utilised in future studies for many years to come. © 2016 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2016 The College of Optometrists.

Modelling optical fibers acquisition and transmission systems for their use in nuclear environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van-Uffelen, Marco

2001-01-01

In order to introduce connections based on optical fibres in the field of civil nuclear activities, it is important to have a good knowledge of their behaviour under irradiation. The objective of this research thesis is thus to develop a tool to predict the lifetime of such an optical connection which would allow a predictive maintenance. The adopted methodology relies on a modular approach and consists in the characterization of the behaviour of individual components under test conditions which are representative of addressed applications. Transfer functions are then chained to obtain the connection predictive model. Various components have been studied: mono- and multi-mode optical fibres, light-emitting diodes, vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser diodes (VCSEL), as well as Si and InGaAs sensors. These components have been submitted to a range of dose rates and cumulated dose under temperatures reaching 85 C. Based on on-line measurements, a pragmatic approach has been assessed to predict the evolution of optical losses induced in optical fibres during several months. The difference between measurements and predictions ranges between 10 and 20 per cent depending on the fibre type and on the wavelength. VCSELs display a high tolerance to gamma radiation and a steady operation at high temperatures, whereas sensors appear to be the weakest link [fr

Predicting ambient aerosol Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: elemental carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Dillner, A. M.; Takahama, S.

2015-06-01

Elemental carbon (EC) is an important constituent of atmospheric particulate matter because it absorbs solar radiation influencing climate and visibility and it adversely affects human health. The EC measured by thermal methods such as Thermal-Optical Reflectance (TOR) is operationally defined as the carbon that volatilizes from quartz filter samples at elevated temperatures in the presence of oxygen. Here, methods are presented to accurately predict TOR EC using Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from atmospheric particulate matter collected on polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE or Teflon) filters. This method is similar to the procedure tested and developed for OC in prior work (Dillner and Takahama, 2015). Transmittance FT-IR analysis is rapid, inexpensive, and non-destructive to the PTFE filter samples which are routinely collected for mass and elemental analysis in monitoring networks. FT-IR absorbance spectra are obtained from 794 filter samples from seven Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) sites collected during 2011. Partial least squares regression is used to calibrate sample FT-IR absorbance spectra to collocated TOR EC measurements. The FTIR spectra are divided into calibration and test sets. Two calibrations are developed, one which is developed from uniform distribution of samples across the EC mass range (Uniform EC) and one developed from a~uniform distribution of low EC mass samples (EC < 2.4 μg, Low Uniform EC). A hybrid approach which applies the low EC calibration to low EC samples and the Uniform EC calibration to all other samples is used to produces predictions for low EC samples that have mean error on par with parallel TOR EC samples in the same mass range and an estimate of the minimum detection limit (MDL) that is on par with TOR EC MDL. For all samples, this hybrid approach leads to precise and accurate TOR EC predictions by FT-IR as indicated by high coefficient of variation (R2; 0.96), no

Fiber-optic communication systems

CERN Document Server

Agrawal, Govind P

2010-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive account of fiber-optic communication systems. The 3rd edition of this book is used worldwide as a textbook in many universities. This 4th edition incorporates recent advances that have occurred, in particular two new chapters. One deals with the advanced modulation formats (such as DPSK, QPSK, and QAM) that are increasingly being used for improving spectral efficiency of WDM lightwave systems. The second chapter focuses on new techniques such as all-optical regeneration that are under development and likely to be used in future communication systems. All othe

Supernovae and cosmology with future European facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hook, I M

2013-06-13

Prospects for future supernova surveys are discussed, focusing on the European Space Agency's Euclid mission and the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), both expected to be in operation around the turn of the decade. Euclid is a 1.2 m space survey telescope that will operate at visible and near-infrared wavelengths, and has the potential to find and obtain multi-band lightcurves for thousands of distant supernovae. The E-ELT is a planned, general-purpose ground-based, 40-m-class optical-infrared telescope with adaptive optics built in, which will be capable of obtaining spectra of type Ia supernovae to redshifts of at least four. The contribution to supernova cosmology with these facilities will be discussed in the context of other future supernova programmes such as those proposed for DES, JWST, LSST and WFIRST.

Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

2013-01-01

Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

Advanced optical components for next-generation photonic networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, S. J. B.

2003-08-01

Future networks will require very high throughput, carrying dominantly data-centric traffic. The role of Photonic Networks employing all-optical systems will become increasingly important in providing scalable bandwidth, agile reconfigurability, and low-power consumptions in the future. In particular, the self-similar nature of data traffic indicates that packet switching and burst switching will be beneficial in the Next Generation Photonic Networks. While the natural conclusion is to pursue Photonic Packet Switching and Photonic Burst Switching systems, there are significant challenges in realizing such a system due to practical limitations in optical component technologies. Lack of a viable all-optical memory technology will continue to drive us towards exploring rapid reconfigurability in the wavelength domain. We will introduce and discuss the advanced optical component technologies behind the Photonic Packet Routing system designed and demonstrated at UC Davis. The system is capable of packet switching and burst switching, as well as circuit switching with 600 psec switching speed and scalability to 42 petabit/sec aggregated switching capacity. By utilizing a combination of rapidly tunable wavelength conversion and a uniform-loss cyclic frequency (ULCF) arrayed waveguide grating router (AWGR), the system is capable of rapidly switching the packets in wavelength, time, and space domains. The label swapping module inside the Photonic Packet Routing system containing a Mach-Zehnder wavelength converter and a narrow-band fiber Bragg-grating achieves all-optical label swapping with optical 2R (potentially 3R) regeneration while maintaining optical transparency for the data payload. By utilizing the advanced optical component technologies, the Photonic Packet Routing system successfully demonstrated error-free, cascaded, multi-hop photonic packet switching and routing with optical-label swapping. This paper will review the advanced optical component technologies

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene R Faber

Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

Overview and future direction for blackbody solar-pumped lasers

Science.gov (United States)

Deyoung, R. J.

1988-01-01

A review of solar-pumped blackbody lasers is given which addresses their present status and suggests future research directions. The blackbody laser concept is one system proposed to scale to multimegawatt power levels for space-to-space power transmissions for such applications as onboard spacecraft electrical or propulsion needs. Among the critical technical issues are the scalability to high powers and the laser wavelength which impacts the transmission optics size as well as the laser-to-electric converter at the receiver. Because present blackbody solar-pumped lasers will have laser wavelengths longer than 4 microns, simple photovoltaic converters cannot be used, and transmission optics will be large. Thus, future blackbody laser systems should emphasize near visible laser wavelengths.

Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Ge Hu

Full Text Available Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

Mechanical reliability assessment of optical fibres in Radiation environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Uffelen, M.

2006-01-01

After more than two decades of intensive research and even some pioneering applications in space, optical fibres are now finding their way in various radiation environments, including both fission and future fusion nuclear-power plants, and high-energy physics experiments. For example, next to distributed monitoring applications of large nuclear infrastructures, fibre-optics can also be used for data communications during maintenance operations in the reactor vessel of the future ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), or for plasma diagnostics applications during operation of the reactor. These maintenance and diagnostics tasks require the optical fibres to withstand extremely high doses of radiation, up to MGy dose levels and temperatures above 150 degrees Celsius. The reliability assessment of fibre-optic systems for their qualification in nuclear environments often requires to meet stringent radiation tolerance levels. The majority of (usually accelerated) radiation assessments have so far focused on optical properties, such as wavelength-dependent radiation induced attenuation and radio-luminescence. The relation of these radiation effects with the fabrication methods and other environmental parameters has been the subject of years of research. Only a few results are available on the long-term evolution of mechanical properties of irradiated optical fibres. As a first step towards understanding the long-term reliability of fibre-optic composite cables in hostile radiation environments, we therefore performed dynamic fatigue tests with different commercial-grade optical fibres, both multi-mode and single-mode types

New Mexico Fiber-Optic Link Marks Giant Leap Toward Future of Radio Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

1998-12-01

SOCORRO, NM -- Scientists and engineers at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) have made a giant leap toward the future of radio astronomy by successfully utilizing the Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope in conjunction with an antenna of the continent-wide Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) using the longest fiber-optic data link ever demonstrated in radio astronomy. The 65-mile fiber link will allow scientists to use the two National Science Foundation (NSF) facilities together in real time, and is the first step toward expanding the VLA to include eight proposed new radio-telescope antennas throughout New Mexico. LEFT: Miller Goss, NRAO's director of VLA/VLBA Operations, unveils graphic showing success of the Pie Town-VLA fiber link. The project, funded by the NSF and Associated Universities, Inc. (AUI), which operates NRAO for the NSF, links the VLA and the VLBA antenna in Pie Town, NM, using a Western New Mexico Telephone Co. fiber-optic cable. The successful hookup was announced at a ceremony that also marked the 10th anniversary of NRAO's Operations Center in Socorro. "Linking the Pie Town antenna to the VLA quadruples the VLA's ability to make detailed images of astronomical objects," said Paul Vanden Bout, NRAO's Director. "This alone makes the link an advance for science, but its greater importance is that it clearly demonstrates the technology for improving the VLA's capabilities even more in the future." "Clearly, the big skies and wide open spaces in New Mexico create near perfect conditions for the incredible astronomical assets located in our state. This new fiber-optic link paves the way for multiplying the already breathtaking scientific capabilities of the VLA," Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) said. The VLA is a system of 27 radio-telescope antennas distributed over the high desert west of Socorro, NM, in the shape of a giant "Y." Made famous in movies, commercials and numerous published photos, the VLA has been one of the most productive

Irradiation of fiber optics in the SSC tunnel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickey, C.E.

1990-03-01