WorldWideScience

Sample records for pre-test probability settings

  1. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  2. Pre-test probability risk scores and their use in contemporary management of patients with chest pain: One year stress echo cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demarco, Daniela Cassar; Papachristidis, Alexandros; Roper, Damian; Tsironis, Ioannis; Byrne, Jonathan; Monaghan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To compare how patients with chest pain would be investigated, based on the two guidelines available for UK cardiologists, on the management of patients with stable chest pain. The UK National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guideline which was published in 2010 and the European society of cardiology (ESC) guideline published in 2013. Both guidelines utilise pre-test probability risk scores, to guide the choice of investigation. Design We undertook a large retrospective study to investigate the outcomes of stress echocardiography. Setting A large tertiary centre in the UK in a contemporary clinical practice. Participants Two thirds of the patients in the cohort were referred from our rapid access chest pain clinics. Results We found that the NICE risk score overestimates risk by 20% compared to the ESC Risk score. We also found that based on the NICE guidelines, 44% of the patients presenting with chest pain, in this cohort, would have been investigated invasively, with diagnostic coronary angiography. Using the ESC guidelines, only 0.3% of the patients would be investigated invasively. Conclusion The large discrepancy between the two guidelines can be easily reduced if NICE adopted the ESC risk score. PMID:26673458

  3. The accuracy of clinical and biochemical estimates in defining the pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garvie, N.W.; Salehzahi, F.; Kuitert, L.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The PIOPED survey confirmed the significance of the high probability ventilation/perfusion scan (HP V/Q scan) in establishing the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). In an interesting sentence, however, the authors indicated that 'the clinicians' assessment of the likelihood of PE (prior probability)' can substantially increase the predictive value of the investigation. The criteria used for this assessment were not published, and this statement conflicts with the belief that the clinical diagnosis of pulmonary embolism is unreliable. A medical history was obtained from 668 patients undergoing V/Q lung scans for suspected PE, and certain clinical features linked to PE were, when present, documented. These included pleuritic chest pain, haemoptysis, dyspnoea, clinical evidence of DVT, recent surgery and right ventricular strain pattern an ECG. D-Dimer levels and initial arterial oxygen saturation (PaO2) levels were also obtained. The prevalence of these clinical and biochemical criteria was then compared between HP (61) and normal (171) scans after exclusion of all equivocal or intermediate scan outcomes (436), (where lung scintigraphy was unable to provide a definite diagnosis). D-Dimer and/or oxygen saturation levels, were similarly compared in each group. A true positive result was scored for each clinical or biochemical criterion when linked with a high probability scan and, conversely, a false positive score when the scan outcome was normal. In this fashion, the positive predictive value (PPV) and, when appropriate, the negative predictive value (NPV) was obtained for each risk factor. In the context of PE, DVT and post-operative status prove the more reliable predictors of a high probability outcome. Where both features were present, the PPV rose to 0.57. A normal D-Dimer level was a better excluder of PE than a normal oxygen saturation level (NPV 0.78-v-0.44). Conversely, a raised D-Dimer, or reduced oxygen saturation, were both a little value in

  4. Comparison of patient comprehension of rapid HIV pre-test fundamentals by information delivery format in an emergency department setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clark Melissa A

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Two trials were conducted to compare emergency department patient comprehension of rapid HIV pre-test information using different methods to deliver this information. Methods Patients were enrolled for these two trials at a US emergency department between February 2005 and January 2006. In Trial One, patients were randomized to a no pre-test information or an in-person discussion arm. In Trial Two, a separate group of patients were randomized to an in-person discussion arm or a Tablet PC-based video arm. The video, "Do you know about rapid HIV testing?", and the in-person discussion contained identical Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-suggested pre-test information components as well as information on rapid HIV testing with OraQuick®. Participants were compared by information arm on their comprehension of the pre-test information by their score on a 26-item questionnaire using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results In Trial One, 38 patients completed the no-information arm and 31 completed the in-person discussion arm. Of these 69 patients, 63.8% had twelve years or fewer of formal education and 66.7% had previously been tested for HIV. The mean score on the questionnaire for the in-person discussion arm was higher than for the no information arm (18.7 vs. 13.3, p ≤ 0.0001. In Trial Two, 59 patients completed the in-person discussion and 55 completed the video arms. Of these 114 patients, 50.9% had twelve years or fewer of formal education and 68.4% had previously been tested for HIV. The mean score on the questionnaire for the video arm was similar to the in-person discussion arm (20.0 vs. 19.2; p ≤ 0.33. Conclusion The video "Do you know about rapid HIV testing?" appears to be an acceptable substitute for an in-person pre-test discussion on rapid HIV testing with OraQuick®. In terms of adequately informing ED patients about rapid HIV testing, either form of pre-test information is preferable than for patients

  5. Neutrosophic Probability, Set, And Logic (first version)

    OpenAIRE

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2000-01-01

    This project is a part of a National Science Foundation interdisciplinary project proposal. Starting from a new viewpoint in philosophy, the neutrosophy, one extends the classical "probability theory", "fuzzy set" and "fuzzy logic" to , and respectively. They are useful in artificial intelligence, neural networks, evolutionary programming, neutrosophic dynamic systems, and quantum mechanics.

  6. Set-up of a pre-test mock-up experiment in preparation for the HCPB Breeder Unit mock-up experimental campaign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernández, F., E-mail: francisco.hernandez@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology (INR) (Germany); Kolb, M. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Applied Materials (IAM-WPT) (Germany); Ilić, M.; Kunze, A. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology (INR) (Germany); Németh, J. [KFKI Research Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics (Hungary); Weth, A. von der [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology (INR) (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: ► As preparation for the HCPB-TBM Breeder Unit out-of-pile testing campaign, a pre-test experiment (PREMUX) has been prepared and described. ► A new heater system based on a wire heater matrix has been developed for imitating the neutronic volumetric heating and it is compared with the conventional plate heaters. ► The test section is described and preliminary thermal results with the available models are presented and are to be benchmarked with PREMUX. ► The PREMUX integration in the air cooling loop L-STAR/LL in the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology is shown and future steps are discussed. -- Abstract: The complexity of the experimental set-up for testing a full-scaled Breeder Unit (BU) mock-up for the European Helium Cooled Pebble Bed Test Blanket Module (HCPB-TBM) has motivated to build a pre-test mock-up experiment (PREMUX) consisting of a slice of the BU in the Li{sub 4}SiO{sub 4} region. This pre-test aims at verifying the feasibility of the methods to be used for the subsequent testing of the full-scaled BU mock-up. Key parameters needed for the modeling of the breeder material is also to be determined by the Hot Wire Method (HWM). The modeling tools for the thermo-mechanics of the pebble beds and for the mock-up structure are to be calibrated and validated as well. This paper presents the setting-up of PREMUX in the L-STAR/LL facility at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. A key requirement of the experiments is to mimic the neutronic volumetric heating. A new heater concept is discussed and compared to several conventional heater configurations with respect to the estimated temperature distribution in the pebble beds. The design and integration of the thermocouple system in the heater matrix and pebble beds is also described, as well as other key aspects of the mock-up (dimensions, layout, cooling system, purge gas line, boundary conditions and integration in the test facility). The adequacy of these methods for the full-scaled BU

  7. Patient perspectives with abbreviated versus standard pre-test HIV counseling in the prenatal setting: a randomized-controlled, non-inferiority trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohan, Deborah; Gomez, Elvira; Greenberg, Mara; Washington, Sierra; Charlebois, Edwin D

    2009-01-01

    In the US, an unacceptably high percentage of pregnant women do not undergo prenatal HIV testing. Previous studies have found increased uptake of prenatal HIV testing with abbreviated pre-test counseling, however little is known about patient decision making, testing satisfaction and knowledge in this setting. A randomized-controlled, non-inferiority trial was conducted from October 2006 through February 2008 at San Francisco General Hospital (SFGH), the public teaching hospital of the City and County of San Francisco. A total of 278 English- and Spanish-speaking pregnant women were randomized to receive either abbreviated or standard nurse-performed HIV test counseling at the initial prenatal visit. Patient decision making experience was compared between abbreviated versus standard HIV counseling strategies among a sample of low-income, urban, ethnically diverse prenatal patients. The primary outcome was the decisional conflict score (DCS) using O'Connor low-literacy scale and secondary outcomes included satisfaction with test decision, basic HIV knowledge and HIV testing uptake. We conducted an intention-to-treat analysis of 278 women--134 (48.2%) in the abbreviated arm (AA) and 144 (51.8%) in the standard arm (SA). There was no significant difference in the proportion of women with low decisional conflict (71.6% in AA vs. 76.4% in SA, p = .37), and the observed mean difference between the groups of 3.88 (95% CI: -0.65, 8.41) did not exceed the non-inferiority margin. HIV testing uptake was very high (97. 8%) and did not differ significantly between the 2 groups (99.3% in AA vs. 96.5% in SA, p = .12). Likewise, there was no difference in satisfaction with testing decision (97.8% in AA vs. 99.3% in SA, p = .36). However, women in AA had significantly lower mean HIV knowledge scores (78.4%) compared to women in SA (83.7%, pprocess, while associated with slightly lower knowledge, does not compromise patient decision making or satisfaction regarding HIV testing

  8. Comparative analysis through probability distributions of a data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristea, Gabriel; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai

    2018-02-01

    In practice, probability distributions are applied in such diverse fields as risk analysis, reliability engineering, chemical engineering, hydrology, image processing, physics, market research, business and economic research, customer support, medicine, sociology, demography etc. This article highlights important aspects of fitting probability distributions to data and applying the analysis results to make informed decisions. There are a number of statistical methods available which can help us to select the best fitting model. Some of the graphs display both input data and fitted distributions at the same time, as probability density and cumulative distribution. The goodness of fit tests can be used to determine whether a certain distribution is a good fit. The main used idea is to measure the "distance" between the data and the tested distribution, and compare that distance to some threshold values. Calculating the goodness of fit statistics also enables us to order the fitted distributions accordingly to how good they fit to data. This particular feature is very helpful for comparing the fitted models. The paper presents a comparison of most commonly used goodness of fit tests as: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-Squared. A large set of data is analyzed and conclusions are drawn by visualizing the data, comparing multiple fitted distributions and selecting the best model. These graphs should be viewed as an addition to the goodness of fit tests.

  9. On calculating the probability of a set of orthologous sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfeng Liu

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Junfeng Liu1,2, Liang Chen3, Hongyu Zhao4, Dirk F Moore1,2, Yong Lin1,2, Weichung Joe Shih1,21Biometrics Division, The Cancer, Institute of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA; 2Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ, USA; 3Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 4Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USAAbstract: Probabilistic DNA sequence models have been intensively applied to genome research. Within the evolutionary biology framework, this article investigates the feasibility for rigorously estimating the probability of a set of orthologous DNA sequences which evolve from a common progenitor. We propose Monte Carlo integration algorithms to sample the unknown ancestral and/or root sequences a posteriori conditional on a reference sequence and apply pairwise Needleman–Wunsch alignment between the sampled and nonreference species sequences to estimate the probability. We test our algorithms on both simulated and real sequences and compare calculated probabilities from Monte Carlo integration to those induced by single multiple alignment.Keywords: evolution, Jukes–Cantor model, Monte Carlo integration, Needleman–Wunsch alignment, orthologous

  10. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  11. Generation, combination and extension of random set approximations to coherent lower and upper probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Jim W.; Lawry, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    Random set theory provides a convenient mechanism for representing uncertain knowledge including probabilistic and set-based information, and extending it through a function. This paper focuses upon the situation when the available information is in terms of coherent lower and upper probabilities, which are encountered, for example, when a probability distribution is specified by interval parameters. We propose an Iterative Rescaling Method (IRM) for constructing a random set with corresponding belief and plausibility measures that are a close outer approximation to the lower and upper probabilities. The approach is compared with the discrete approximation method of Williamson and Downs (sometimes referred to as the p-box), which generates a closer approximation to lower and upper cumulative probability distributions but in most cases a less accurate approximation to the lower and upper probabilities on the remainder of the power set. Four combination methods are compared by application to example random sets generated using the IRM

  12. Extreme points of the convex set of joint probability distributions with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Here we address the following problem: If G is a standard ... convex set of all joint probability distributions on the product Borel space (X1 ×X2, F1 ⊗. F2) which .... cannot be identically zero when X and Y vary in A1 and u and v vary in H2. Thus.

  13. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

    2015-01-01

    Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  14. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Doubravsky

    Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  15. 40 CFR 1065.520 - Pre-test verification procedures and pre-test data collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... corrective action does not resolve the deficiency, you may request to use the contaminated system as an... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Pre-test verification procedures and pre-test data collection. 1065.520 Section 1065.520 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION...

  16. Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolger, Donnacha; Houlding, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Linear opinion pools are a common method for combining a set of distinct opinions into a single succinct opinion, often to be used in a decision making task. In this paper we consider a method, termed the Plug-in approach, for determining the weights to be assigned in this linear pool, in a manner that can be deemed as rational in some sense, while incorporating multiple forms of learning over time into its process. The environment that we consider is one in which every source in the pool is herself a decision maker (DM), in contrast to the more common setting in which expert judgments are amalgamated for use by a single DM. We discuss a simulation study that was conducted to show the merits of our technique, and demonstrate how theoretical probabilistic arguments can be used to exactly quantify the probability of this technique being superior (in terms of a probability density metric) to a set of alternatives. Illustrations are given of simulated proportions converging to these true probabilities in a range of commonly used distributional cases. - Highlights: • A novel context for combination of expert opinion is provided. • A dynamic reliability assessment method is stated, justified by properties and a data study. • The theoretical grounding underlying the data-driven justification is explored. • We conclude with areas for expansion and further relevant research.

  17. Level set segmentation of medical images based on local region statistics and maximum a posteriori probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Wenchao; Wang, Yi; Lei, Tao; Fan, Yangyu; Feng, Yan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) and Bayes' rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

  18. Probable relationship between partitions of the set of codons and the origin of the genetic code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Dino G; Gallardo, Mauricio O; Osorio, Manuel I

    2014-03-01

    Here we study the distribution of randomly generated partitions of the set of amino acid-coding codons. Some results are an application from a previous work, about the Stirling numbers of the second kind and triplet codes, both to the cases of triplet codes having four stop codons, as in mammalian mitochondrial genetic code, and hypothetical doublet codes. Extending previous results, in this work it is found that the most probable number of blocks of synonymous codons, in a genetic code, is similar to the number of amino acids when there are four stop codons, as well as it could be for a primigenious doublet code. Also it is studied the integer partitions associated to patterns of synonymous codons and it is shown, for the canonical code, that the standard deviation inside an integer partition is one of the most probable. We think that, in some early epoch, the genetic code might have had a maximum of the disorder or entropy, independent of the assignment between codons and amino acids, reaching a state similar to "code freeze" proposed by Francis Crick. In later stages, maybe deterministic rules have reassigned codons to amino acids, forming the natural codes, such as the canonical code, but keeping the numerical features describing the set partitions and the integer partitions, like a "fossil numbers"; both kinds of partitions about the set of amino acid-coding codons. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Conditional Probabilities in the Excursion Set Theory. Generic Barriers and non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    De Simone, Andrea; Riotto, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called first-passage time problem in the presence of a moving barrier. The excursion set theory is also a powerful formalism to study other properties of dark matter halos such as halo bias, accretion rate, formation time, merging rate and the formation history of halos. This is achieved by computing conditional probabilities with non-trivial initial conditions, and the conditional two-barrier first-crossing rate. In this paper we use the recently-developed path integral formulation of the excursion set theory to calculate analytically these conditional probabilities in the presence of a generic moving barrier, including the one describing the ellipsoidal collapse, and for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions. The non-Markovianity of the random walks induced by non-Gaussi...

  20. Development and evaluation of probability density functions for a set of human exposure factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maddalena, R.L.; McKone, T.E.; Bodnar, A.; Jacobson, J.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe efforts carried out during 1998 and 1999 at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to assist the U.S. EPA in developing and ranking the robustness of a set of default probability distributions for exposure assessment factors. Among the current needs of the exposure-assessment community is the need to provide data for linking exposure, dose, and health information in ways that improve environmental surveillance, improve predictive models, and enhance risk assessment and risk management (NAS, 1994). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Emergency and Remedial Response (OERR) plays a lead role in developing national guidance and planning future activities that support the EPA Superfund Program. OERR is in the process of updating its 1989 Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) as part of the EPA Superfund reform activities. Volume III of RAGS, when completed in 1999 will provide guidance for conducting probabilistic risk assessments. This revised document will contain technical information including probability density functions (PDFs) and methods used to develop and evaluate these PDFs. The PDFs provided in this EPA document are limited to those relating to exposure factors.

  1. Development and evaluation of probability density functions for a set of human exposure factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddalena, R.L.; McKone, T.E.; Bodnar, A.; Jacobson, J.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe efforts carried out during 1998 and 1999 at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to assist the U.S. EPA in developing and ranking the robustness of a set of default probability distributions for exposure assessment factors. Among the current needs of the exposure-assessment community is the need to provide data for linking exposure, dose, and health information in ways that improve environmental surveillance, improve predictive models, and enhance risk assessment and risk management (NAS, 1994). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Emergency and Remedial Response (OERR) plays a lead role in developing national guidance and planning future activities that support the EPA Superfund Program. OERR is in the process of updating its 1989 Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) as part of the EPA Superfund reform activities. Volume III of RAGS, when completed in 1999 will provide guidance for conducting probabilistic risk assessments. This revised document will contain technical information including probability density functions (PDFs) and methods used to develop and evaluate these PDFs. The PDFs provided in this EPA document are limited to those relating to exposure factors

  2. EVOLVE : a Bridge between Probability, Set Oriented Numerics, and Evolutionary Computation II

    CERN Document Server

    Coello, Carlos; Tantar, Alexandru-Adrian; Tantar, Emilia; Bouvry, Pascal; Moral, Pierre; Legrand, Pierrick; EVOLVE 2012

    2013-01-01

    This book comprises a selection of papers from the EVOLVE 2012 held in Mexico City, Mexico. The aim of the EVOLVE is to build a bridge between probability, set oriented numerics and evolutionary computing, as to identify new common and challenging research aspects. The conference is also intended to foster a growing interest for robust and efficient methods with a sound theoretical background. EVOLVE is intended to unify theory-inspired methods and cutting-edge techniques ensuring performance guarantee factors. By gathering researchers with different backgrounds, a unified view and vocabulary can emerge where the theoretical advancements may echo in different domains. Summarizing, the EVOLVE focuses on challenging aspects arising at the passage from theory to new paradigms and aims to provide a unified view while raising questions related to reliability,  performance guarantees and modeling. The papers of the EVOLVE 2012 make a contribution to this goal. 

  3. Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tygert, Mark

    2010-09-21

    We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

  4. Frequency formats, probability formats, or problem structure? A test of the nested-sets hypothesis in an extensional reasoning task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William P. Neace

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Five experiments addressed a controversy in the probability judgment literature that centers on the efficacy of framing probabilities as frequencies. The natural frequency view predicts that frequency formats attenuate errors, while the nested-sets view predicts that highlighting the set-subset structure of the problem reduces error, regardless of problem format. This study tested these predictions using a conjunction task. Previous studies reporting that frequency formats reduced conjunction errors confounded reference class with problem format. After controlling this confound, the present study's findings show that conjunction errors can be reduced using either a probability or a frequency format, that frequency effects depend upon the presence of a reference class, and that frequency formats do not promote better statistical reasoning than probability formats.

  5. 40 CFR 89.406 - Pre-test procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Pre-test procedures. 89.406 Section 89.406 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Procedures § 89.406 Pre-test procedures. (a) Allow a minimum of 30 minutes warmup in the standby or operating...

  6. LAMP-B: a Fortran program set for the lattice cell analysis by collision probability method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchihashi, Keiichiro

    1979-02-01

    Nature of physical problem solved: LAMB-B solves an integral transport equation by the collision probability method for many variety of lattice cell geometries: spherical, plane and cylindrical lattice cell; square and hexagonal arrays of pin rods; annular clusters and square clusters. LAMP-B produces homogenized constants for multi and/or few group diffusion theory programs. Method of solution: LAMP-B performs an exact numerical integration to obtain the collision probabilities. Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Not more than 68 group in the fast group calculation, and not more than 20 regions in the resonance integral calculation. Typical running time: It varies with the number of energy groups and the selection of the geometry. Unusual features of the program: Any or any combination of constituent subprograms can be used so that the partial use of this program is available. (author)

  7. A Monte Carlo calculation of the pionium break-up probability with different sets of pionium target cross sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santamarina, C; Schumann, M; Afanasyev, L G; Heim, T

    2003-01-01

    Chiral perturbation theory predicts the lifetime of pionium, a hydrogen-like π + π - atom, to better than 3% precision. The goal of the DIRAC experiment at CERN is to obtain and check this value experimentally by measuring the break-up probability of pionium in a target. In order to accurately measure the lifetime one needs to know the relationship between the break-up probability and the lifetime to 1% accuracy. We have obtained this dependence by modelling the evolution of pionic atoms in the target using Monte Carlo methods. The model relies on the computation of the pionium-target-atom interaction cross sections. Three different sets of pionium-target cross sections with varying degrees of complexity were used: from the simplest first-order Born approximation involving only the electrostatic interaction to a more advanced approach, taking into account multiphoton exchanges and relativistic effects. We conclude that, in order to obtain the pionium lifetime to 1% accuracy from the break-up probability, the pionium-target cross sections must be known with the same accuracy for the low excited bound states of the pionic atom. This result has been achieved, for low Z targets, with the two most precise cross section sets. For large Z targets only the set accounting for multiphoton exchange satisfies the condition

  8. 40 CFR 90.408 - Pre-test procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ....408 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... during service accumulation is allowed only in accordance with § 90.118. (b) Engine pre-test preparation... by § 90.324(a). If necessary, allow the heated sample line, filters, and pumps to reach operating...

  9. 40 CFR 91.408 - Pre-test procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ....408 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... accordance with § 91.117. (b) Engine pre-test preparation. (1) Drain and charge the fuel tank(s) with the..., including the sample probe, using mode 1 from Table 2 in appendix A of this subpart. The emission sampling...

  10. Cognitive Laboratory Experiences : On Pre-testing Computerised Questionnaires

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijkers, G.J.M.E.

    2002-01-01

    In the literature on questionnaire design and survey methodology, pre-testing is mentioned as a way to evaluate questionnaires (i.e. investigate whether they work as intended) and control for measurement errors (i.e. assess data quality). As the American Statistical Association puts it (ASA, 1999,

  11. Qualitative pre-test of Energy Star advertising : final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-01-01

    Natural Resources Canada launched a print advertising campaign and one 30-second television commercial to promote the Energy Star symbol and to acquaint the public with the program that identifies energy efficient products that reduce energy use, save money and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. The Communications Branch of Natural Resources Canada wanted to pre-test the television and print ads. Each print ad focused on a particular product category, including home comfort, appliances, electronics and office equipment. The qualitative research methodology was used in the pre-testing because it is the best learning tool for understanding the range and depth of reactions toward a subject at any given time. The findings were not quantifiable because they are not representative of the population at large. Ten focus groups were surveyed in January 2003 in 5 Canadian centres with a total of 83 participants aged 18 to 54. The target groups included people who were informed about climate change issues as well as those who were note. Participants were questioned about the Energy Star Product. Findings were consistent across all 5 locations. There was some general awareness of EnerGuide on appliances in all groups, but generally a low awareness of the Energy Star symbol. Most people did not place energy efficiency as a high priority when purchasing appliances. This report presented the main findings of attitudes towards climate change, Kyoto and energy efficiency. The reaction to the television and print ads was also included along with opinions regarding their main weaknesses and strengths. Some recommendations for improvement were also included. Samples of the print advertisements were included in both English and French. tabs., figs.

  12. Modeling spatial variability of sand-lenses in clay till settings using transition probability and multiple-point geostatistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessler, Timo Christian; Nilsson, Bertel; Klint, Knud Erik

    2010-01-01

    (TPROGS) of alternating geological facies. The second method, multiple-point statistics, uses training images to estimate the conditional probability of sand-lenses at a certain location. Both methods respect field observations such as local stratigraphy, however, only the multiple-point statistics can...... of sand-lenses in clay till. Sand-lenses mainly account for horizontal transport and are prioritised in this study. Based on field observations, the distribution has been modeled using two different geostatistical approaches. One method uses a Markov chain model calculating the transition probabilities...

  13. Application of tests of goodness of fit in determining the probability density function for spacing of steel sets in tunnel support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnoosh Basaligheh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the conventional methods for temporary support of tunnels is to use steel sets with shotcrete. The nature of a temporary support system demands a quick installation of its structures. As a result, the spacing between steel sets is not a fixed amount and it can be considered as a random variable. Hence, in the reliability analysis of these types of structures, the selection of an appropriate probability distribution function of spacing of steel sets is essential. In the present paper, the distances between steel sets are collected from an under-construction tunnel and the collected data is used to suggest a proper Probability Distribution Function (PDF for the spacing of steel sets. The tunnel has two different excavation sections. In this regard, different distribution functions were investigated and three common tests of goodness of fit were used for evaluation of each function for each excavation section. Results from all three methods indicate that the Wakeby distribution function can be suggested as the proper PDF for spacing between the steel sets. It is also noted that, although the probability distribution function for two different tunnel sections is the same, the parameters of PDF for the individual sections are different from each other.

  14. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  15. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  16. Choreographer Pre-Testing Code Analysis and Operational Testing.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, David J. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Harrison, Christopher B. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Perr, C. W. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hurd, Steven A [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Choreographer is a "moving target defense system", designed to protect against attacks aimed at IP addresses without corresponding domain name system (DNS) lookups. It coordinates actions between a DNS server and a Network Address Translation (NAT) device to regularly change which publicly available IP addresses' traffic will be routed to the protected device versus routed to a honeypot. More details about how Choreographer operates can be found in Section 2: Introducing Choreographer. Operational considerations for the successful deployment of Choreographer can be found in Section 3. The Testing & Evaluation (T&E) for Choreographer involved 3 phases: Pre-testing, Code Analysis, and Operational Testing. Pre-testing, described in Section 4, involved installing and configuring an instance of Choreographer and verifying it would operate as expected for a simple use case. Our findings were that it was simple and straightforward to prepare a system for a Choreographer installation as well as configure Choreographer to work in a representative environment. Code Analysis, described in Section 5, consisted of running a static code analyzer (HP Fortify) and conducting dynamic analysis tests using the Valgrind instrumentation framework. Choreographer performed well, such that only a few errors that might possibly be problematic in a given operating situation were identified. Operational Testing, described in Section 6, involved operating Choreographer in a representative environment created through EmulyticsTM . Depending upon the amount of server resources dedicated to Choreographer vis-á-vis the amount of client traffic handled, Choreographer had varying degrees of operational success. In an environment with a poorly resourced Choreographer server and as few as 50-100 clients, Choreographer failed to properly route traffic over half the time. Yet, with a well-resourced server, Choreographer handled over 1000 clients without missrouting. Choreographer

  17. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  18. HIV pre-test information, discussion or counselling? A review of guidance relevant to the WHO European Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Stephen A; Delpech, Valerie; Raben, Dorthe; Casabona, Jordi; Tsereteli, Nino; de Wit, John

    2016-02-01

    In the context of a shift from exceptionalism to normalisation, this study examines recommendations/evidence in current pan-European/global guidelines regarding pre-test HIV testing and counselling practices in health care settings. It also reviews new research not yet included in guidelines. There is consensus that verbal informed consent must be gained prior to testing, individually, in private, confidentially, in the presence of a health care provider. All guidelines recommend pre-test information/discussion delivered verbally or via other methods (information sheet). There is agreement about a minimum standard of information to be provided before a test, but guidelines differ regarding discussion about issues encouraging patients to think about implications of the result. There is heavy reliance on expert consultation in guideline development. Referenced scientific evidence is often more than ten years old and based on US/UK research. Eight new papers are reviewed. Current HIV testing and counselling guidelines have inconsistencies regarding the extent and type of information that is recommended during pre-test discussions. The lack of new research underscores a need for new evidence from a range of European settings to support the process of expert consultation in guideline development. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  20. On pre-test sensitisation and peer assessment to enhance learning gain in science education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Floor/Floris

    2009-01-01

    *The main part of this thesis focuses on designing, optimising, and studying the embedding of two types of interventions: pre-testing and peer assessment, both supported by or combined with ICT-tools. * Pre-test sensitisation is used intentionally to boost the learning gain of the main intervention,

  1. Complot test section outlet CFD optimization (pre - test and dimensioning)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Profir, M. M.; Moreau, V.; Kennedy, G.

    2013-01-01

    In the framework of the FP7 MAXSIMA European project, the COMPLOT (COMPonent LOop Testing) LBE experimental facility is employed for thermal-hydraulic experiments aimed to test and qualify, among other components, a buoyancy driven safety/control rods (SR/CR) system, as key components for the safe operation of the MYRRHA reactor. This paper focuses mainly on a simplified CFD representation of the SR test section outlet in order to optimise it for the testing program. Parametric cases, associated with different positions of the SR assembly have been set up and analysed. A quasi-static analysis has been performed for each case, accounting for the LBE volume displaced by the insertion of the SR bundle, by introducing appropriately positioned additional mass sources. Velocity and pressure fields, as well as pressure drop magnitudes and mass flow rates through relevant guide tube hole outlets have been calculated and compared. The CFD analysis proved that the outer boundary of the test section does not impact the expected performance of the SR (rapid transient downward insertion). Preliminary simulations reproducing the timely repositioning of the SR/CR in COMPLOT using procedures of automatic volume mesh regeneration, consistently with the rod imposed displacement, are illustrated. (authors)

  2. Pre-test evaluation of LLTR series II Test A-7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knittle, D.

    1981-03-01

    The purpose of this report is to present pre-test predictions of pressure histories for the A-7 test to be conducted in the Large Leak Test Rig (LLTR) at the Energy Technology Engineering Center (ETEC) in April 1981

  3. A low false negative filter for detecting rare bird species from short video segments using a probable observation data set-based EKF method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Dezhen; Xu, Yiliang

    2010-09-01

    We report a new filter to assist the search for rare bird species. Since a rare bird only appears in front of a camera with very low occurrence (e.g., less than ten times per year) for very short duration (e.g., less than a fraction of a second), our algorithm must have a very low false negative rate. We verify the bird body axis information with the known bird flying dynamics from the short video segment. Since a regular extended Kalman filter (EKF) cannot converge due to high measurement error and limited data, we develop a novel probable observation data set (PODS)-based EKF method. The new PODS-EKF searches the measurement error range for all probable observation data that ensures the convergence of the corresponding EKF in short time frame. The algorithm has been extensively tested using both simulated inputs and real video data of four representative bird species. In the physical experiments, our algorithm has been tested on rock pigeons and red-tailed hawks with 119 motion sequences. The area under the ROC curve is 95.0%. During the one-year search of ivory-billed woodpeckers, the system reduces the raw video data of 29.41 TB to only 146.7 MB (reduction rate 99.9995%).

  4. 3D Orthorhombic Elastic Wave Propagation Pre-Test Simulation of SPE DAG-1 Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, R. P.; Preston, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    A more realistic representation of many geologic media can be characterized as a dense system of vertically-aligned microfractures superimposed on a finely-layered horizontal geology found in shallow crustal rocks. This seismic anisotropy representation lends itself to being modeled as an orthorhombic elastic medium comprising three mutually orthogonal symmetry planes containing nine independent moduli. These moduli can be determined by observing (or prescribing) nine independent P-wave and S-wave phase speeds along different propagation directions. We have developed an explicit time-domain finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating 3D elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The components of the particle velocity vector and the stress tensor are governed by a set of nine, coupled, first-order, linear, partial differential equations (PDEs) called the velocity-stress system. All time and space derivatives are discretized with centered and staggered FD operators possessing second- and fourth-order numerical accuracy, respectively. Additionally, we have implemented novel perfectly matched layer (PML) absorbing boundary conditions, specifically designed for orthorhombic media, to effectively suppress grid boundary reflections. In support of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II, a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site, the code has been used to perform pre-test estimates of the Dry Alluvium Geology - Experiment 1 (DAG-1). Based on literature searches, realistic geologic structure and values for orthorhombic P-wave and S-wave speeds have been estimated. Results and predictions from the simulations are presented.

  5. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  6. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  7. Targeting as the basis for pre-test market of lithium-ion battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuniaristanto, Zakaria, R.; Saputri, V. H. L.; Sutopo, W.; Kadir, E. A.

    2017-11-01

    This article discusses about market segmentation and targeting as a first step in pre-test market of a new technology. The benefits of targeting towards pre-test market are pre-test market can be conducted to focus on selected target markets so there is no bias during the pre-test market. In determining the target market then do some surveys to identify the state of market in the future, so that the marketing process is not misplaced. Lithium ion battery which is commercialized through start-up companies is the case study. This start-up companies must be able to respond the changes and bring in customers as well as maintain them so that companies can survive and evolve to achieve its objectives. The research aims to determine market segments and target market effectively. Marketing strategy (segmentation and targeting) is used to make questionnaire and cluster analysis in data processing. Respondents were selected by purposive sampling and have obtained data as many as 80 samples. As the results study, there are three segments for lithium ion battery with their own distinguished characteristics and there are two segments that can be used as the target market for the company.

  8. Achievement of course outcome in vector calculus pre-test questions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    No Abstract. Keywords: pre-test; course outcome; bloom taxanomy; Rasch measurement model; vector calculus. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians ...

  9. Free Fall Misconceptions: Results of a Graph Based Pre-Test of Sophomore Civil Engineering Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montecinos, Alicia M.

    2014-01-01

    A partially unusual behaviour was found among 14 sophomore students of civil engineering who took a pre test for a free fall laboratory session, in the context of a general mechanics course. An analysis contemplating mathematics models and physics models consistency was made. In all cases, the students presented evidence favoring a correct free…

  10. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  11. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  12. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  13. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  14. Pre-test analyses for the NESC1 spinning cylinder experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fokkens, J.H.

    1995-10-01

    The spinning cylinder experiment organised by the Network for the Evaluation of Steel Components (NESC) is designed to investigate the cleavage initiation behaviour of both surface breaking and subclad defects in simulated end of life RPV material, exposed to a pressurised thermal shock transient. Pre-test structural integrity assessments are performed by the NESC Structural Analysis Task Group (TG3). The results of these structural integrity assessments are used to determine the design of the experiment and especially the sizes of the introduced defects. In this report the results of the pre-test analyses performed by the group Applied Mechanics at ECN - Nuclear Energy are described. Elastic as well as elasto-plastic structural analyses are performed for a surface breaking and a subclad defect in a forged cylinder with a 4 mm cladding. The semi elliptical defects have a depth of 40 mm and an aspect ratio of 1:3. (orig.)

  15. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  16. Pre-test evaluation of LLTR Series II Test A-6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knittle, D.

    1980-11-01

    Purpose of this report is to present pre-test predictions of pressure histories for the A6 test to be conducted in the Large Leak Test Facility (LLTF) at the Energy Technology Engineering Center. A6 is part of a test program being conducted to evaluate the effects of leaks produced by a double-ended guillotine rupture of a single tube. A6 will provide data on the CRBR prototypical double rupture disc performance

  17. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  18. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  19. Pre-test analysis results of a PWR steel lined pre-stressed concrete containment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basha, S.M.; Ghosh, Barnali; Patnaik, R.; Ramanujam, S.; Singh, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2000-02-01

    Pre-stressed concrete nuclear containment serves as the ultimate barrier against the release of radioactivity to the environment. This ultimate barrier must be checked for its ultimate load carrying capacity. BARC participated in a Round Robin analysis activity which is co-sponsored by Sandia National Laboratory, USA and Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation Japan for the pre-test prediction of a 1:4 size Pre-stressed Concrete Containment Vessel. In house finite element code ULCA was used to make the test predictions of displacements and strains at the standard output locations. The present report focuses on the important landmarks of the pre-test results, in sequential terms of first crack appearance, loss of pre-stress, first through thickness crack, rebar and liner yielding and finally liner tearing at the ultimate load. Global and local failure modes of the containment have been obtained from the analysis. Finally sensitivity of the numerical results with respect to different types of liners and different constitutive models in terms of bond strength between concrete and steel and tension-stiffening parameters are examined. The report highlights the important features which could be observed during the test and guidelines are given for improving the prediction in the post test computation after the test data is available. (author)

  20. A well test analysis method accounting for pre-test operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silin, D.B.; Tsang, C.-F.

    2003-01-01

    We propose to use regular monitoring data from a production or injection well for estimating the formation hydraulic properties in the vicinity of the wellbore without interrupting the operations. In our approach, we select a portion of the pumping data over a certain time interval and then derive our conclusions from analysis of these data. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach differing it form conventional methods is in the introduction of an additional parameter, an effective pre-test pumping rate. The additional parameter is derived based on a rigorous asymptotic analysis of the flow model. Thus, we account for the non-uniform pressure distribution at the beginning of testing time interval caused by pre-test operations at the well. By synthetic and field examples, we demonstrate that deviation of the matching curve from the data that is usually attributed to skin and wellbore storage effects, can also be interpreted through this new parameter. Moreover, with our method, the data curve is matched equally well and the results of the analysis remain stable when the analyzed data interval is perturbed, whereas traditional methods are sensitive to the choice of the data interval. A special efficient minimization procedure has been developed for searching the best fitting parameters. We enhanced our analysis above with a procedure of estimating ambient reservoir pressure and dimensionless wellbore radius. The methods reported here have been implemented in code ODA (Operations Data Analysis). A beta version of the code is available for free testing and evaluation to interested parties

  1. Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

  2. Planning and pre-testing: the key to effective AIDS education materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostfield, M L; Romocki, L S

    1991-06-01

    The steps in designing and producing effective AIDS prevention educational materials are outlines, using as an example a brochure originated in St. Lucia for clients at STD clinics. The brochure was intended to be read by clients as they waited for their consultation, thus it was targeted to a specific audience delimited by age, sex, language, educational level, religion and associated medical or behavioral characteristics. When researching the audience, it is necessary to learn the medium they best respond to, what they know already, what is their present behavior, how they talk about AIDS, what terms they use, how they perceive the benefits of AIDS prevention behavior, what sources of information they trust. The minimum number of key messages should be selected. Next the most appropriate channel of communication is identified. Mass media are not always best for a target audience, "little media" such as flyers and give-always may be better. The draft is then pre-tested by focus groups and interviews, querying about the text separately, then images, color, format, style. Listen to the way the respondents talk about the draft. Modify the draft and pre-test again. Fine-tune implications of the message for realism in emotional responses, respect, self-esteem, admiration and trust. To achieve wide distribution it is a good idea to involve community leaders to production of the materials, so they will be more likely to take part in the distribution process.

  3. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  4. Pre-test calculations for FAL-19 and FAL-20 using the ITHACA code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, S.J.; Ketchell, N.

    1992-08-01

    Falcon is a small scale experimental apparatus, designed to simulate the transport of fission products through the primary circuit and containment of a nuclear power reactor under severe accident conditions. Information gained from the experiments in Falcon will be used to guide and assist in understanding the much larger Phebus-FP experiments. This report presents the results of pre-test calculations performed using ITHACA for the two tests: FAL-19 and FAL-20. Initial calculations were concerned solely with the thermal-hydraulic conditions in the containment while later ones briefly investigated the effect of the injection of an insoluble aerosol into the containment with the same thermal-hydraulic conditions. (author)

  5. NESC-1 spinning cylinder experiment. Pre-test fracture analysis evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moinereau, D.; Pitard-Bouet, J.M.

    1996-10-01

    A pre-test structural analysis evaluation has been conducted by Electricite de France (EDF) including several three dimensional elastic and elastic-plastic computations. Two cylinder geometries have been studied. Higher values of the stress intensity factor are obtained in both geometries in the elastic-plastic computations due to the yielding of the cladding during the thermal transient. The comparisons between the stress intensity factors and the expected base metal toughness show that cleavage initiation must occur preferably in base metal near the interface with cladding. The comparison between both geometries show also that the thicker vessel with a deeper semi-elliptical sub-clad flaw (70 mm deep) is more favourable to cleavage initiation near the base metal - cladding interface. (K.A.)

  6. FUMEX cases 1, 2, and 3 calculated pre-test and post-test results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanova, S; Vitkova, M; Passage, G; Manolova, M; Simeonova, V [Bylgarska Akademiya na Naukite, Sofia (Bulgaria). Inst. za Yadrena Izsledvaniya i Yadrena Energetika; Scheglov, A; Proselkov, V [Russian Research Centre Kurchatov Inst., Moscow (Russian Federation); Kharalampieva, Ts [Kombinat Atomna Energetika, Kozloduj (Bulgaria)

    1994-12-31

    Two versions (modified pre-test and modified post-test) of PIN-micro code were used to analyse the fuel rod behaviour of three FUMEX experiments. The experience of applying PIN-micro code with its simple structure and old conception of the steady-state operation shows significant difficulties in treating the complex processes like those in FUMEX experiments. These difficulties were partially overcame through different model modifications and corrections based on special engineering estimations and the results obtained as a whole do not seem unreasonable. The calculations have been performed by a group from two Bulgarian institutions in collaboration with specialists from the Kurchatov Research Center. 1 tab., 14 figs., 8 refs.

  7. BNL NONLINEAR PRE TEST SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR THE NUPEC ULTIMATE STRENGTH PIPING TEST PROGRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DEGRASSI, G.; HOFMAYER, C.; MURPHY, C.; SUZUKI, K.; NAMITA, Y.

    2003-01-01

    The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) of Japan has been conducting a multi-year research program to investigate the behavior of nuclear power plant piping systems under large seismic loads. The objectives of the program are: to develop a better understanding of the elasto-plastic response and ultimate strength of nuclear piping; to ascertain the seismic safety margin of current piping design codes; and to assess new piping code allowable stress rules. Under this program, NUPEC has performed a large-scale seismic proving test of a representative nuclear power plant piping system. In support of the proving test, a series of materials tests, static and dynamic piping component tests, and seismic tests of simplified piping systems have also been performed. As part of collaborative efforts between the United States and Japan on seismic issues, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and its contractor, the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), are participating in this research program by performing pre-test and post-test analyses, and by evaluating the significance of the program results with regard to safety margins. This paper describes BNL's pre-test analysis to predict the elasto-plastic response for one of NUPEC's simplified piping system seismic tests. The capability to simulate the anticipated ratcheting response of the system was of particular interest. Analyses were performed using classical bilinear and multilinear kinematic hardening models as well as a nonlinear kinematic hardening model. Comparisons of analysis results for each plasticity model against test results for a static cycling elbow component test and for a simplified piping system seismic test are presented in the paper

  8. The realistic performance achievable with mycobacterial automated culture systems in high and low prevalence settings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kampen, S.C.; Anthony, R.M.; Klatser, P.R.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Diagnostic tests are generally used in situations with similar pre-test probability of disease to where they were developed. When these tests are applied in situations with very different pre-test probabilities of disease, it is informative to model the likely implications of known

  9. The realistic performance achievable with mycobacterial automated culture systems in high and low prevalence settings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kampen, Sanne C.; Anthony, Richard M.; Klatser, Paul R.

    2010-01-01

    Diagnostic tests are generally used in situations with similar pre-test probability of disease to where they were developed. When these tests are applied in situations with very different pre-test probabilities of disease, it is informative to model the likely implications of known characteristics

  10. Pre-test analysis for identification of natural circulation instabilities in TALL-3D facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kööp, Kaspar, E-mail: kaspar@safety.sci.kth.se; Jeltsov, Marti, E-mail: marti@safety.sci.kth.se; Grishchenko, Dmitry, E-mail: dmitry@safety.sci.kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pavel@safety.sci.kth.se

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • Global optimum search method was used to identify a region of instability. • Parametric study was used for detailed investigation of system behavior modes. • The results include identification of sustained mass flow rate oscillations. • Recommendations are made for selection of optimal experimental conditions. - Abstract: TALL-3D facility is a lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE) thermal-hydraulic loop designed to provide experimental data on thermal-hydraulics phenomena for validation of stand-alone and coupled System Thermal Hydraulics (STH) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. Pre-test analysis is crucial for proper choice of experimental conditions at which the experimental data would be most useful for code validation and benchmarking. The goal of this work is to identify these conditions at which the experiment is challenging for the STH codes yet minimizes the 3D-effects from the test section on the loop dynamics. The analysis is focused on the identification of limit cycle flow oscillations in the TALL-3D facility main heater leg using a global optimum search tool GA-NPO to find a general region in the parameter space where oscillatory behavior is expected. As a second step a grid study is conducted outlining the boundaries between different stability modes. Phenomena, simulation results and methodology for selection of the test parameters are discussed in detail and recommendations for experiments are provided.

  11. A Teaching Method on Basic Chemistry for Freshman (II) : Teaching Method with Pre-test and Post-test

    OpenAIRE

    立木, 次郎; 武井, 庚二

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with review of a teaching method on basic chemistry for freshman in this first semester. We tried to review this teaching method with pre-test and post-test by means of the official and private questionnaires. Several hints and thoughts on teaching skills are obtained from this analysis.

  12. A Teaching Method on Basic Chemistry for Freshman : Teaching Method with Pre-test and Post-test

    OpenAIRE

    立木, 次郎; 武井, 庚二

    2003-01-01

    This report deals with a teaching method on basic chemistry for freshman. This teaching method contains guidance and instruction to how to understand basic chemistry. Pre-test and post-test have been put into practice each time. Each test was returned to students at class in the following weeks.

  13. Combined use of clinical pre-test probability and D-dimer test in the diagnosis of preoperative deep venous thrombosis in colorectal cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stender, Mogens; Frøkjaer, Jens Brøndum; Hagedorn Nielsen, Tina Sandie

    2008-01-01

    The preoperative prevalence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in patients with colorectal cancer may be as high as 8%. In order to minimize the risk of pulmonary embolism, it is important to rule out preoperative DVT. A large study has confirmed that a negative D-dimer test in combination with a low...... preoperative DVT in colorectal cancer patients admitted for surgery. Preoperative D-dimer test and compression ultrasonography for DVT were performed in 193 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer. Diagnostic accuracy indices of the D-dimer test were assessed according to the PTP score...... in ruling out preoperative DVT in colorectal cancer patients admitted for surgery....

  14. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  15. Use of a National Continuing Medical Education Meeting to Provide Simulation-Based Training in Temporary Hemodialysis Catheter Insertion Skills: A Pre-Test Post-Test Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward G Clark

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Simulation-based-mastery-learning (SBML is an effective method to train nephrology fellows to competently insert temporary, non-tunneled hemodialysis catheters (NTHCs. Previous studies of SBML for NTHC-insertion have been conducted at a local level. Objectives: Determine if SBML for NTHC-insertion can be effective when provided at a national continuing medical education (CME meeting. Describe the correlation of demographic factors, prior experience with NTHC-insertion and procedural self-confidence with simulated performance of the procedure. Design: Pre-test – post-test study. Setting: 2014 Canadian Society of Nephrology annual meeting. Participants: Nephrology fellows, internal medicine residents and medical students. Measurements: Participants were surveyed regarding demographics, prior NTHC-insertion experience, procedural self-confidence and attitudes regarding the training they received. NTHC-insertion skills were assessed using a 28-item checklist. Methods: Participants underwent a pre-test of their NTHC-insertion skills at the internal jugular site using a realistic patient simulator and ultrasound machine. Participants then had a training session that included a didactic presentation and 2 hours of deliberate practice using the simulator. On the following day, trainees completed a post-test of their NTHC-insertion skills. All participants were required to meet or exceed a minimum passing score (MPS previously set at 79%. Trainees who did not reach the MPS were required to perform more deliberate practice until the MPS was achieved. Results: Twenty-two individuals participated in SBML training. None met or exceeded the MPS at baseline with a median checklist score of 20 (IQR, 7.25 to 21. Seventeen of 22 participants (77% completed post-testing and improved their scores to a median of 27 (IQR, 26 to 28; p < 0.001. All met or exceeded the MPS on their first attempt. There were no significant correlations between demographics

  16. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  17. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  18. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    finite set can occur as the outcome distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)

  19. Using cognitive pre-testing methods in the development of a new evidenced-based pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Coleman

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056. This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. Methods A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Results Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. Conclusions The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the

  20. Use of a national continuing medical education meeting to provide simulation-based training in temporary hemodialysis catheter insertion skills: a pre-test post-test study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Edward G; Paparello, James J; Wayne, Diane B; Edwards, Cedric; Hoar, Stephanie; McQuillan, Rory; Schachter, Michael E; Barsuk, Jeffrey H

    2014-01-01

    Simulation-based-mastery-learning (SBML) is an effective method to train nephrology fellows to competently insert temporary, non-tunneled hemodialysis catheters (NTHCs). Previous studies of SBML for NTHC-insertion have been conducted at a local level. Determine if SBML for NTHC-insertion can be effective when provided at a national continuing medical education (CME) meeting. Describe the correlation of demographic factors, prior experience with NTHC-insertion and procedural self-confidence with simulated performance of the procedure. Pre-test - post-test study. 2014 Canadian Society of Nephrology annual meeting. Nephrology fellows, internal medicine residents and medical students. Participants were surveyed regarding demographics, prior NTHC-insertion experience, procedural self-confidence and attitudes regarding the training they received. NTHC-insertion skills were assessed using a 28-item checklist. Participants underwent a pre-test of their NTHC-insertion skills at the internal jugular site using a realistic patient simulator and ultrasound machine. Participants then had a training session that included a didactic presentation and 2 hours of deliberate practice using the simulator. On the following day, trainees completed a post-test of their NTHC-insertion skills. All participants were required to meet or exceed a minimum passing score (MPS) previously set at 79%. Trainees who did not reach the MPS were required to perform more deliberate practice until the MPS was achieved. Twenty-two individuals participated in SBML training. None met or exceeded the MPS at baseline with a median checklist score of 20 (IQR, 7.25 to 21). Seventeen of 22 participants (77%) completed post-testing and improved their scores to a median of 27 (IQR, 26 to 28; p < 0.001). All met or exceeded the MPS on their first attempt. There were no significant correlations between demographics, prior experience or procedural self-confidence with pre-test performance. Small sample-size and

  1. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  2. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  3. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  4. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  5. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  6. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Assessment of clinical utility of 18F-FDG PET in patients with head and neck cancer: a probability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerres, Gerhard W.; Mosna-Firlejczyk, Katarzyna; Schulthess, Gustav K. von; Steurer, Johann; Bachmann, Lucas M.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to calculate disease probabilities based on data of patients with head and neck cancer in the register of our institution and to perform a systematic review of the available data on the accuracy of PET in the primary assessment and follow-up of patients with head and neck cancer. The pre-test probability of head and neck cancer among patients in our institutional data registry was assessed. Then the published literature was selected and appraised according to a standard protocol of systematic reviews. Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data on study characteristics, quality and accuracy. Accuracy data were used to form 2 x 2 contingency tables and were pooled to produce summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and summary likelihood ratios for positive and negative testing. Finally post-test probabilities were calculated on the basis of the pre-test probabilities of this patient group. All patients had cytologically or histologically proven cancer. The prevalence of additional lymph node metastases on PET in staging examinations was 19.6% (11/56), and that of locoregional recurrence on restaging PET was 28.6% (12/42). In the primary assessment of patients, PET had positive and negative likelihood ratios of 3.9 (2.56-5.93) and 0.24 (0.14-0.41), respectively. Disease probabilities were therefore 49.4% for a positive test result and 5.7% for a negative test result. In the assessment of recurrence these values were 3.96 (2.8-5.6) and 0.16 (0.1-0.25), resulting in probabilities of 49.7% and 3.8%. PET evaluation for involvement of lymph nodes had positive and negative likelihood ratios of 17.26 (10.9-27.3) and 0.19 (0.13-0.27) for primary assessment and 11.0 (2.93-41.24) and 0.14 (0.01-1.88) for detection of recurrence. The probabilities were 81.2% and 4.5% for primary assessment and 73.3% and 3.4% for assessment of recurrence. It is concluded that in this clinical setting the main advantage of PET is the

  8. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  9. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  10. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  11. Second progress report on pre-test calculations for the large block test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.H.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) is investigating the suitability of the Topopah Spring tuff in the thick vadose zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a host rock for permanent disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of the YMP, a group of field tests, called the Large Block Test (LBT), will be conducted on a large electrically heated block of Topopah Spring tuff. The block will be heated by electrical heaters. The goals of the LBT are to gain information on the coupled thermal-mechanical-hydrological-chemical processes that will be active in the near-field environment of a repository; to provide field data for testing and calibrating models; and to help in the development of measurement systems and techniques. In this second progress report, we present results of the final set of numerical modeling calculations performed in support of the LBT design. The results include block temperatures and heat fluxes across the surfaces. The results are applied primarily to the design of guard heaters to enforce adiabatic conditions along the block walls. Conduction-only runs are adequate to estimate the thermal behavior of the system, because earlier calculations showed that heat transfer in the block is expected to be dominated by conduction. In addition, conduction-only runs can be made at substantially shorter execution times than full hydrothermal runs. We also run a two-dimensional, hydrothermal, discrete fracture model, with 200-μm vertical fractures parallel to the heaters and occurring at a uniform spacing of 30 cm. The results show the development of distinct dryout and recondensation zones. The dryout zones are thickest at the fractures and thinnest in the matrix midway between the fractures

  12. CONSTOR registered V/TC drop tests. Pre-test analysis by finite element method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voelzer, W.; Koenig, S.; Klein, K.; Tso, C.F.; Owen, S.; Monk, C.

    2004-01-01

    The CONSTOR registered family of steel-concrete-steel sandwich cask designs have been developed to fulfil both the internationally valid IAEA criteria for transportation and the requirements for long-term intermediate storage in the US and various European countries. A comprehensive drop testing programme using a full-scale prototype test cask (CONSTOR registered V/TC) has been developed as part of the application for a transport license in both Germany and the US. The drop tests using the full-scale cask will be performed by BAM at test facilities in Horstwalde. The tests will include five different 9m drops onto flat unyielding targets and seven different 1m drops onto a punch. The first drop test, a 9m side drop, will be performed during PATRAM 2004. The other drop tests will take place during the following year. The development of the cask design and the formulation of the drop test programme has been supported by an extensive series of finite element analyses. The objectives of the finite element analyses were; to provide an intermediate step in demonstrating the performance of the CONSTOR registered in fulfilling the requirements of 10 CFR 71 and the IAEA transport regulations. To justify the selection of drop tests. To predict the performance of V/TC during the drop tests. To estimate the strain and acceleration time histories at measuring points on the test cask and to aid in the setting up of the test instrumentation. To develop an analysis model that can be used in future safety analyses for transport and storage license applications and which can confidently be used to demonstrate the performance of the package. This paper presents an overview of the analyses performed, including a summary of all the different drop orientations that were considered. The major assumptions employed during the analyses are also discussed, as are the specifics of the modelling techniques that were employed. At the end of the paper, the key results obtained from the analyses

  13. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  14. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  15. Evaluation of the theory-based Quality Improvement in Physical Therapy (QUIP) programme: a one-group, pre-test post-test pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, Geert M; Harting, Janneke; Bartholomew, L Kay; Schlief, Angelique; Oostendorp, Rob A B; de Vries, Nanne K

    2013-05-25

    Guideline adherence in physical therapy is far from optimal, which has consequences for the effectiveness and efficiency of physical therapy care. Programmes to enhance guideline adherence have, so far, been relatively ineffective. We systematically developed a theory-based Quality Improvement in Physical Therapy (QUIP) programme aimed at the individual performance level (practicing physiotherapists; PTs) and the practice organization level (practice quality manager; PQM). The aim of the study was to pilot test the multilevel QUIP programme's effectiveness and the fidelity, acceptability and feasibility of its implementation. A one-group, pre-test, post-test pilot study (N = 8 practices; N = 32 PTs, 8 of whom were also PQMs) done between September and December 2009. Guideline adherence was measured using clinical vignettes that addressed 12 quality indicators reflecting the guidelines' main recommendations. Determinants of adherence were measured using quantitative methods (questionnaires). Delivery of the programme and management changes were assessed using qualitative methods (observations, group interviews, and document analyses). Changes in adherence and determinants were tested in the paired samples T-tests and expressed in effect sizes (Cohen's d). Overall adherence did not change (3.1%; p = .138). Adherence to three quality indicators improved (8%, 24%, 43%; .000 ≤ p ≤ .023). Adherence to one quality indicator decreased (-15.7%; p = .004). Scores on various determinants of individual performance improved and favourable changes at practice organizational level were observed. Improvements were associated with the programme's multilevel approach, collective goal setting, and the application of self-regulation; unfavourable findings with programme deficits. The one-group pre-test post-test design limits the internal validity of the study, the self-selected sample its external validity. The QUIP programme has the potential to change physical

  16. Pre-test genetic counseling services for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer delivered by non-genetics professionals in the state of Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadaparampil, S T; Scherr, C L; Cragun, D; Malo, T L; Pal, T

    2015-05-01

    Genetic counseling and testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer now includes practitioners from multiple healthcare professions, specialties, and settings. This study examined whether non-genetics professionals (NGPs) perform guideline-based patient intake and informed consent before genetic testing. NGPs offering BRCA testing services in Florida (n = 386) were surveyed about clinical practices. Among 81 respondents (response rate = 22%), approximately half reported: sometimes scheduling a separate session for pre-test counseling lasting 11-30 min prior to testing, discussing familial implications of testing, benefits and limitations of risk management options, and discussing the potential psychological impact and insurance-related issues. Few constructed a three-generation pedigree, discussed alternative hereditary cancer syndromes, or the meaning of a variant result. This lack of adherence to guideline-based practice may result in direct harm to patients and their family members. NGPs who are unable to deliver guideline adherent cancer genetics services should focus on identification and referral of at-risk patients to in person or telephone services provided by genetics professionals. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Pre-Test Analysis Predictions for the Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Checkout Tests - TA01 and TA02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornburgh, Robert P.; Hilburger, Mark W.

    2011-01-01

    This report summarizes the pre-test analysis predictions for the SBKF-P2-CYL-TA01 and SBKF-P2-CYL-TA02 shell buckling tests conducted at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in support of the Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) Project, NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Assessment. The test article (TA) is an 8-foot-diameter aluminum-lithium (Al-Li) orthogrid cylindrical shell with similar design features as that of the proposed Ares-I and Ares-V barrel structures. In support of the testing effort, detailed structural analyses were conducted and the results were used to monitor the behavior of the TA during the testing. A summary of predicted results for each of the five load sequences is presented herein.

  18. Mineralogic and petrologic investigation of pre-test core samples from the spent fuel test-climax

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryerson, F.J.; Qualheim, B.J.

    1983-12-01

    Pre-test samples obtained from just inside the perimeter of the canister emplacement holes of the Spent Fuel Test-Climax have been characterized by petrographic and microanalytical techniques. The primary quartz monzonite has undergone various degrees of hydrothermal alteration as a result of natural processes. Alteration is most apparent on primary plagioclase and biotite. The most common secondary phases on plagioclase are muscovite and calcite, while the most common secondary phases on biotite are epidote and chlorite. The major alteration zones encountered are localized along filled fractures, i.e. veins. The thickness and mineralogy of the alteration zones can be correlated with the vein mineralogy, becoming wider and more complex mineralogically when the veins contain calcite. 7 references, 10 figures, 4 tables

  19. Pre-test habituation improves the reliability of a handheld test of mechanical nociceptive threshold in dairy cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raundal, P. M.; Andersen, P. H.; Toft, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Mechanical nociceptive threshold (MNT) testing has been used to investigate aspects of painful states in bovine claws. We investigated a handheld tool, where the applied stimulation force was monitored continuously relative to a pre-encoded based target force. The effect on MNT of two pre-testing...... habituation procedures was performed in two different experiments comprising a total of 88 sound Holsteins dairy cows kept either inside or outside their home environment. MNT testing was performed using five consecutive mechanical nociceptive stimulations per cow per test at a fixed pre-encoded target rate...... of 2.1 N/s. The habituation procedure performed in dairy cows kept in their home environment led to lowered intra-individual coefficient of variation of MNT (P test...

  20. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  1. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  2. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  3. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  4. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  5. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  6. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  7. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  8. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  9. The realistic performance achievable with mycobacterial automated culture systems in high and low prevalence settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klatser Paul R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnostic tests are generally used in situations with similar pre-test probability of disease to where they were developed. When these tests are applied in situations with very different pre-test probabilities of disease, it is informative to model the likely implications of known characteristics of test performance in the new situation. This is the case for automated Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB liquid culture systems for tuberculosis case detection which were developed and are widely used in low burden settings but are only beginning to be applied on a large scale in high burden settings. Methods Here we model the performance of MTB liquid culture systems in high and low tuberculosis (TB prevalence settings using detailed published data concentrating on the likely frequency of cross-contamination events. Results Our model predicts that as the TB prevalence in the suspect population increases there is an exponential increase in the risk of MTB cross-contamination events expected in otherwise negative samples, even with equivalent technical performance of the laboratories. Quality control and strict cross-contamination measures become increasingly critical as the burden of MTB infection among TB suspects increases. Even under optimal conditions the realistically achievable specificity of these systems in high burden settings will likely be significantly below that obtained in low TB burden laboratories. Conclusions Liquid culture systems can play a valuable role in TB case detection in laboratories in high burden settings, but laboratory workers, policy makers and clinicians should be aware of the increased risks, independent of laboratory proficiency, of cross-contamination events in high burden settings.

  10. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  11. The correct estimate of the probability of false detection of the matched filter in weak-signal detection problems . II. Further results with application to a set of ALMA and ATCA data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vio, R.; Vergès, C.; Andreani, P.

    2017-08-01

    The matched filter (MF) is one of the most popular and reliable techniques to the detect signals of known structure and amplitude smaller than the level of the contaminating noise. Under the assumption of stationary Gaussian noise, MF maximizes the probability of detection subject to a constant probability of false detection or false alarm (PFA). This property relies upon a priori knowledge of the position of the searched signals, which is usually not available. Recently, it has been shown that when applied in its standard form, MF may severely underestimate the PFA. As a consequence the statistical significance of features that belong to noise is overestimated and the resulting detections are actually spurious. For this reason, an alternative method of computing the PFA has been proposed that is based on the probability density function (PDF) of the peaks of an isotropic Gaussian random field. In this paper we further develop this method. In particular, we discuss the statistical meaning of the PFA and show that, although useful as a preliminary step in a detection procedure, it is not able to quantify the actual reliability of a specific detection. For this reason, a new quantity is introduced called the specific probability of false alarm (SPFA), which is able to carry out this computation. We show how this method works in targeted simulations and apply it to a few interferometric maps taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We select a few potential new point sources and assign an accurate detection reliability to these sources.

  12. A probability space for quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  13. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narens, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Developing and pre-testing a decision board to facilitate informed choice about delivery approach in uncomplicated pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wood Stephen

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rate of caesarean sections is increasing worldwide, yet medical literature informing women with uncomplicated pregnancies about relative risks and benefits of elective caesarean section (CS compared with vaginal delivery (VD remains scarce. A decision board may address this gap, providing systematic evidence-based information so that patients can more fully understand their treatment options. The objective of our study was to design and pre-test a decision board to guide clinical discussions and enhance informed decision-making related to delivery approach (CS or VD in uncomplicated pregnancy. Methods Development of the decision board involved two preliminary studies to determine women's preferred mode of risk presentation and a systematic literature review for the most comprehensive presentation of medical risks at the time (VD and CS. Forty women were recruited to pre-test the tool. Eligible subjects were of childbearing age (18-40 years but were not pregnant in order to avoid raising the expectation among pregnant women that CS was a universally available birth option. Women selected their preferred delivery approach and completed the Decisional Conflict Scale to measure decisional uncertainty before and after reviewing the decision board. They also answered open-ended questions reflecting what they had learned, whether or not the information had helped them to choose between birth methods, and additional information that should be included. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse sample characteristics and women's choice of delivery approach pre/post decision board. Change in decisional conflict was measured using Wilcoxon's sign rank test for each of the three subscales. Results The majority of women reported that they had learned something new (n = 37, 92% and that the tool had helped them make a hypothetical choice between delivery approaches (n = 34, 85%. Women wanted more information about neonatal risks and

  15. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  16. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  17. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  18. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  19. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  20. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  1. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  2. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  3. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  4. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  5. Bentonite buffer pre-test. Core drilling of drillholes ONK-PP264...267 in ONKALO at Olkiluoto 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toropainen, V.

    2010-12-01

    Suomen Malmi Oy (Smoy) core drilled four drillholes for bentonite buffer pre-test in ONKALO at Eurajoki, Olkiluoto in July 2010. The identification numbers of the holes are ONK-PP264..267, and the lengths of the drillholes are approximately 4.30 metres each. The drillholes are 75.7 mm by diameter. The drillholes were drilled in a niche at access tunnel chainage 1475. The hydraulic DE 130 drilling rig was used for the work. The drilling water was taken from the ONKALO drilling water pipeline and premixed sodium fluorescein was used as a label agent in the drilling water. In addition to drilling, the drillcores were logged and reported by geologist. Geological logging included the following parameters: lithology, foliation, fracture parameters, fractured zones, core loss, weathering, fracture frequency, RQD and rock quality. The main rock type in the drillholes is pegmatitic granite. The average fracture frequency in the drill cores is 4.0 pcs / m and the average RQD value 94.2 %. (orig.)

  6. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  7. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  8. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  9. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  10. Effects of video-feedback on the communication, clinical competence and motivational interviewing skills of practice nurses: a pre-test posttest control group study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noordman, Janneke; van der Weijden, Trudy; van Dulmen, Sandra

    2014-10-01

    To examine the effects of individual video-feedback on the generic communication skills, clinical competence (i.e. adherence to practice guidelines) and motivational interviewing skills of experienced practice nurses working in primary care. Continuing professional education may be necessary to refresh and reflect on the communication and motivational interviewing skills of experienced primary care practice nurses. A video-feedback method was designed to improve these skills. Pre-test/posttest control group design. Seventeen Dutch practice nurses and 325 patients participated between June 2010-June 2011. Nurse-patient consultations were videotaped at two moments (T0 and T1), with an interval of 3-6 months. The videotaped consultations were rated using two protocols: the Maastrichtse Anamnese en Advies Scorelijst met globale items (MAAS-global) and the Behaviour Change Counselling Index. Before the recordings, nurses were allocated to a control or video-feedback group. Nurses allocated to the video-feedback group received video-feedback between T0 and T1. Data were analysed using multilevel linear or logistic regression. Nurses who received video-feedback appeared to pay significantly more attention to patients' request for help, their physical examination and gave significantly more understandable information. With respect to motivational interviewing, nurses who received video-feedback appeared to pay more attention to 'agenda setting and permission seeking' during their consultations. Video-feedback is a potentially effective method to improve practice nurses' generic communication skills. Although a single video-feedback session does not seem sufficient to increase all motivational interviewing skills, significant improvement in some specific skills was found. Nurses' clinical competences were not altered after feedback due to already high standards. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  13. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  14. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  15. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  16. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  17. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  18. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  19. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  20. Grouped to Achieve: Are There Benefits to Assigning Students to Heterogeneous Cooperative Learning Groups Based on Pre-Test Scores?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, Arman Karl

    Cooperative learning has been one of the most widely used instructional practices around the world since the early 1980's. Small learning groups have been in existence since the beginning of the human race. These groups have grown in their variance and complexity overtime. Classrooms are getting more diverse every year and instructors need a way to take advantage of this diversity to improve learning. The purpose of this study was to see if heterogeneous cooperative learning groups based on student achievement can be used as a differentiated instructional strategy to increase students' ability to demonstrate knowledge of science concepts and ability to do engineering design. This study includes two different groups made up of two different middle school science classrooms of 25-30 students. These students were given an engineering design problem to solve within cooperative learning groups. One class was put into heterogeneous cooperative learning groups based on student's pre-test scores. The other class was grouped based on random assignment. The study measured the difference between each class's pre-post gains, student's responses to a group interaction form and interview questions addressing their perceptions of the makeup of their groups. The findings of the study were that there was no significant difference between learning gains for the treatment and comparison groups. There was a significant difference between the treatment and comparison groups in student perceptions of their group's ability to stay on task and manage their time efficiently. Both the comparison and treatment groups had a positive perception of the composition of their cooperative learning groups.

  1. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  2. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  3. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  4. Pre-Test pan Work Plan sebagai Strategi Pembelajaran Efektif pada Praktikum Bahan Teknik Lanjut Jurusan Pendidikan Teknik Mesin FT UNY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurdjito Nurdjito

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available To find the most effective learning strategy for the practicum in the laboratory of materials of the department of Mechanical Engineering Education, Faculty of Engineering, Yogyakarta State University (YSU, a study that aims to determine the effect of applying pre-test and work plan on the learning activities and the achievement of students in the laboratory was conducted. This action research used the purposive random sampling technique. Pre-test and work plan were conducted as the treatment. The data of study was collected through a test to analyse the students’ achievement scores, then they were analyzed using t-test with SPSS. The results of this study indicated that the application of pre-test and work plan in addition to the standard module was proven to be more effective than the  normative learning using the module with t = 3.055 p = 0.003 <0.05. The implementation of the pre-test and work plan in addition to the use of standard modules is able to  improve the students’ motivation, independence and readiness to learn as well as the cooperation among the students, therefore the achievement is also improved. The mastery of competencies increased significantly proved by the increasing values of mode 66 to 85 (the experiment, and mean 73.12 into 79.32 (experiment.

  5. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  6. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  7. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  8. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  9. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  10. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  11. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  12. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  13. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  14. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  15. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  16. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  17. The impact of Nursing Rounds on the practice environment and nurse satisfaction in intensive care: pre-test post-test comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Leanne M; Burmeister, Elizabeth; Clayton, Samantha; Dalais, Christine; Gardner, Glenn

    2011-08-01

    Factors previously shown to influence patient care include effective decision making, team work, evidence based practice, staffing and job satisfaction. Clinical rounds have the potential to optimise these factors and impact on patient outcomes, but use of this strategy by intensive care nurses has not been reported. To determine the effect of implementing Nursing Rounds in the intensive care environment on patient care planning and nurses' perceptions of the practice environment and work satisfaction. Pre-test post-test 2 group comparative design. Two intensive care units in tertiary teaching hospitals in Australia. A convenience sample of registered nurses (n=244) working full time or part time in the participating intensive care units. Nurses in participating intensive care units were asked to complete the Practice Environment Scale-Nursing Work Index (PES-NWI) and the Nursing Worklife Satisfaction Scale (NWSS) prior to and after a 12 month period during which regular Nursing Rounds were conducted in the intervention unit. Issues raised during Nursing Rounds were described and categorised. The characteristics of the sample and scale scores were summarised with differences between pre and post scores analysed using t-tests for continuous variables and chi-square tests for categorical variables. Independent predictors of the PES-NWI were determined using multivariate linear regression. Nursing Rounds resulted in 577 changes being initiated for 171 patients reviewed; these changes related to the physical, psychological--individual, psychological--family, or professional practice aspects of care. Total PES-NWI and NWSS scores were similar before and after the study period in both participating units. The NWSS sub-scale of interaction between nurses improved in the intervention unit during the study period (pre--4.85±0.93; post--5.36±0.89, p=0.002) with no significant increase in the control group. Factors independently related to higher PES-NWI included

  18. Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

  19. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  20. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  1. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  2. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  3. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  4. Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, Karl

    2008-01-01

    Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

  5. An assessment of time involved in pre-test case review and counseling for a whole genome sequencing clinical research program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Janet L; Faucett, W Andrew; Smith-Packard, Bethanny; Wagner, Monisa; Williams, Marc S

    2014-08-01

    Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is being used for evaluation of individuals with undiagnosed disease of suspected genetic origin. Implementing WGS into clinical practice will place an increased burden upon care teams with regard to pre-test patient education and counseling about results. To quantitate the time needed for appropriate pre-test evaluation of participants in WGS testing, we documented the time spent by our clinical research group on various activities related to program preparation, participant screening, and consent prior to WGS. Participants were children or young adults with autism, intellectual or developmental disability, and/or congenital anomalies, who have remained undiagnosed despite previous evaluation, and their biologic parents. Results showed that significant time was spent in securing allocation of clinical research space to counsel participants and families, and in acquisition and review of participant's medical records. Pre-enrollment chart review identified two individuals with existing diagnoses resulting in savings of $30,000 for the genome sequencing alone, as well as saving hours of personnel time for genome interpretation and communication of WGS results. New WGS programs should plan for costs associated with additional pre-test administrative planning and patient evaluation time that will be required to provide high quality care.

  6. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  7. Prognostic value of stress echocardiography in women with high (⩾80%) probability of coronary artery disease

    OpenAIRE

    Davar, J; Roberts, E; Coghlan, J; Evans, T; Lipkin, D

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the prognostic significance of stress echocardiography in women with a high probability of coronary artery disease (CAD).
SETTING—Secondary and tertiary cardiology unit at a university teaching hospital.
PARTICIPANTS—A total of 135 women (mean (SD) age 63 (9) years) with pre-test probability of CAD ⩾80% were selected from a database of patients investigated by treadmill or dobutamine stress echocardiography between 1995 and 1998.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Patients were followe...

  8. Data Interpretation: Using Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Gordon B.; Vowler, Sarah L.

    2011-01-01

    Experimental data are analysed statistically to allow researchers to draw conclusions from a limited set of measurements. The hard fact is that researchers can never be certain that measurements from a sample will exactly reflect the properties of the entire group of possible candidates available to be studied (although using a sample is often the…

  9. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  10. Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frič Roman

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

  11. Quantum probability for probabilists

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Paul-André

    1993-01-01

    In recent years, the classical theory of stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations has been extended to a non-commutative set-up to develop models for quantum noises. The author, a specialist of classical stochastic calculus and martingale theory, tries to provide anintroduction to this rapidly expanding field in a way which should be accessible to probabilists familiar with the Ito integral. It can also, on the other hand, provide a means of access to the methods of stochastic calculus for physicists familiar with Fock space analysis.

  12. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  13. Comparison of pre-test analyses with the Sizewell-B 1:10 scale prestressed concrete containment test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dameron, R.A.; Rashid, Y.R.; Parks, M.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes pretest analyses of a one-tenth scale model of the Sizewell-B prestressed concrete containment building. The work was performed by ANATECH Research Corp. under contract with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Hydraulic testing of the model was conducted in the United Kingdom by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB). In order to further their understanding of containment behavior, the USNRC, through an agreement with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), also participated in the test program with SNL serving as their technical agent. The analyses that were conducted included two global axisymmetric models with ''bonded'' and ''unbonded'' analytical treatment of meridional tendons, a 3D quarter model of the structure, an axisymmetric representation of the equipment hatch region, and local plan stress and r-θ models of a buttress. Results of these analyses are described and compared with the results of the test. A global hoop failure at midheight of the cylinder and a shear/bending type failure at the base of the cylinder wall were both found to have roughly equal probability of occurrence; however, the shear failure mode had higher uncertainty associated with it. Consequently, significant effort was dedicated to improving the modeling capability for concrete shear behavior. This work is also described briefly. 5 refs., 7 figs

  14. Comparison of pre-test analyses with the Sizewell-B 1:10 scale prestressed concrete containment test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dameron, R.A.; Rashid, Y.R.; Parks, M.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes pretest analyses of a one-tenth scale model of the 'Sizewell-B' prestressed concrete containment building. The work was performed by ANATECH Research Corp. under contract with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Hydraulic testing of the model was conducted in the United Kingdom by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB). In order to further their understanding of containment behavior, the USNRC, through an agreement with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), also participated in the test program with SNL serving as their technical agent. The analyses that were conducted included two global axisymmetric models with 'bonded' and 'unbonded' analytical treatment of meridional tendons, a 3D quarter model of the structure, an axisymmetric representation of the equipment hatch region, and local plane stress and r-θ models of a buttress. Results of these analyses are described and compared with the results of the test. A global hoop failure at midheight of the cylinder and a shear/bending type failure at the base of the cylinder wall were both found to have roughly equal probability of occurrence; however, the shear failure mode had higher uncertainty associated with it. Consequently, significant effort was dedicated to improving the modeling capability for concrete shear behavior. This work is also described briefly. (author)

  15. Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

    2001-01-01

    % in those with low probability. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate clinical probability was 41%. These results underscore the importance of incorporating the standardized reading of the electrocardiogram and of the chest radiograph into the clinical evaluation of patients with suspected PE. The interpretation of these laboratory data, however, requires experience. Future research is needed to develop standardized models, of varying degree of complexity, which may find application in different clinical settings to predict the probability of PE

  16. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  17. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  18. Structural analysis of closure cap barriers: A pre-test study for the Bentonite Mat Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Chung; Pelfrey, J.R.

    1993-01-01

    The Bentonite Mat Demonstration Project (BMDP) is a field demonstration study to determine the construction/installation requirements, permeability, and subsidence performance characteristics of a composite barrier. The composite barrier will consist of on-site sandy-clay blanketed by a bentonite mat and a flexible High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) liner (also called flexible membrane liner). Construction of one control test pad and three bentonite test pads are planned. The control test pad will be used to establish baseline data. Underneath the composite clay cap is a four feet thick loose sand layer in which cavities will be created by evacuation of sand. The present work provides a mathematical model for the BMDP. The mathematical model will be used to simulate the mechanical and structural responses of the composite clay cap during the testing processes. Based upon engineering experience and technical references, a set of nominal soil parameters have been selected

  19. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration

  20. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  1. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  2. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  3. Introduction to probability with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Schay, Géza

    2016-01-01

    Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises

  4. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  5. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  6. Development of a fresh cadaver model for instruction of ultrasound-guided breast biopsy during the surgery clerkship: pre-test and post-test results among third-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrary, Hilary C; Krate, Jonida; Savilo, Christine E; Tran, Melissa H; Ho, Hang T; Adamas-Rappaport, William J; Viscusi, Rebecca K

    2016-11-01

    The aim of our study was to determine if a fresh cadaver model is a viable method for teaching ultrasound (US)-guided breast biopsy of palpable breast lesions. Third-year medical students were assessed both preinstruction and postinstruction on their ability to perform US-guided needle aspiration or biopsy of artificially created masses using a 10-item checklist. Forty-one third-year medical students completed the cadaver laboratory as part of the surgery clerkship. Eight items on the checklist were found to be significantly different between pre-testing and post-testing. The mean preinstruction score was 2.4, whereas the mean postinstruction score was 7.10 (P cadaver models have been widely used in medical education. However, there are few fresh cadaver models that provide instruction on procedures done in the outpatient setting. Our model was found to be an effective method for the instruction of US-guided breast biopsy among medical students. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  8. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  9. Selected papers on analysis, probability, and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Nomizu, Katsumi

    1994-01-01

    This book presents papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sugaku. The papers fall into the general area of mathematical analysis as it pertains to probability and statistics, dynamical systems, differential equations and analytic function theory. Among the topics discussed are: stochastic differential equations, spectra of the Laplacian and Schrödinger operators, nonlinear partial differential equations which generate dissipative dynamical systems, fractal analysis on self-similar sets and the global structure of analytic functions.

  10. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  11. Box-particle probability hypothesis density filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, M.; Gning, A.; Mihaylova, L.; Cremers, D.; Koch, W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multitarget tracking, called box-particle probability hypothesis density filter (box-PHD filter). The approach is able to track multiple targets and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic, and data association uncertainty. The box-PHD filter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The small number of box-p...

  12. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  13. Reservoir characterization and final pre-test analysis in support of the compressed-air-energy-storage Pittsfield aquifer field test in Pike County, Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiles, L.E.; McCann, R.A.

    1983-06-01

    The work reported is part of a field experimental program to demonstrate and evaluate compressed air energy storage in a porous media aquifer reservoir near Pittsfield, Illinois. The reservoir is described. Numerical modeling of the reservoir was performed concurrently with site development. The numerical models were applied to predict the thermohydraulic performance of the porous media reservoir. This reservoir characterization and pre-test analysis made use of evaluation of bubble development, water coning, thermal development, and near-wellbore desaturation. The work was undertaken to define the time required to develop an air storage bubble of adequate size, to assess the specification of instrumentation and above-ground equipment, and to develop and evaluate operational strategies for air cycling. A parametric analysis was performed for the field test reservoir. (LEW)

  14. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  15. Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenkrantz, Walter A

    2008-01-01

    Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

  16. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  17. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  18. Quantum Probability Zero-One Law for Sequential Terminal Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Wulf

    1980-07-01

    On the basis of the Jauch-Piron quantum probability calculus a zero-one law for sequential terminal events is proven, and the significance of certain crucial axioms in the quantum probability calculus is discussed. The result shows that the Jauch-Piron set of axioms is appropriate for the non-Boolean algebra of sequential events.

  19. Probability Modeling and Thinking: What Can We Learn from Practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Budgett, Stephanie; Fewster, Rachel; Fitch, Marie; Pattenwise, Simeon; Wild, Chris; Ziedins, Ilze

    2016-01-01

    Because new learning technologies are enabling students to build and explore probability models, we believe that there is a need to determine the big enduring ideas that underpin probabilistic thinking and modeling. By uncovering the elements of the thinking modes of expert users of probability models we aim to provide a base for the setting of…

  20. The exact probability law for the approximated similarity from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The exact probability law for the approximated similarity from the Minhashing method. Soumaila Dembele, Gane Samb Lo. Abstract. We propose a probabilistic setting in which we study the probability law of the Rajaraman and Ullman RU algorithm and a modied version of it denoted by RUM. These algorithms aim at ...

  1. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  3. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  4. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  5. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  6. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  7. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  8. Theory of random sets

    CERN Document Server

    Molchanov, Ilya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, offers the latest research on random sets. It has been extended to include substantial developments achieved since 2005, some of them motivated by applications of random sets to econometrics and finance. The present volume builds on the foundations laid by Matheron and others, including the vast advances in stochastic geometry, probability theory, set-valued analysis, and statistical inference. It shows the various interdisciplinary relationships of random set theory within other parts of mathematics, and at the same time fixes terminology and notation that often vary in the literature, establishing it as a natural part of modern probability theory and providing a platform for future development. It is completely self-contained, systematic and exhaustive, with the full proofs that are necessary to gain insight. Aimed at research level, Theory of Random Sets will be an invaluable reference for probabilists; mathematicians working in convex and integ...

  9. White blood cell and platelet count as adjuncts to standard clinical evaluation for risk assessment in patients at low probability of acute aortic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morello, Fulvio; Cavalot, Giulia; Giachino, Francesca; Tizzani, Maria; Nazerian, Peiman; Carbone, Federica; Pivetta, Emanuele; Mengozzi, Giulio; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2017-08-01

    Pre-test probability assessment is key in the approach to suspected acute aortic syndromes (AASs). However, most patients with AAS-compatible symptoms are classified at low probability, warranting further evaluation for decision on aortic imaging. White blood cell count, platelet count and fibrinogen explore pathophysiological pathways mobilized in AASs and are routinely assayed in the workup of AASs. However, the diagnostic performance of these variables for AASs, alone and as a bundle, is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that white blood cell count, platelet count and/or fibrinogen at presentation may be applied as additional tools to standard clinical evaluation for pre-test risk assessment in patients at low probability of AAS. This was a retrospective observational study conducted on consecutive patients managed in our Emergency Department from 2009 to 2014 for suspected AAS. White blood cell count, platelet count and fibrinogen were assayed during evaluation in the Emergency Department. The final diagnosis was obtained by computed tomography angiography. The pre-test probability of AAS was defined according to guidelines. Of 1210 patients with suspected AAS, 1006 (83.1%) were classified at low probability, and 271 (22.4%) were diagnosed with AAS. Within patients at low probability, presence of at least one alteration among white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl, platelet count probability, white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl and platelet count probability, the estimated risk of AAS based on the number of alterations amongst white blood cell count >9*10 3 /µl and platelet count probability to fine-tune risk assessment of AAS.

  10. Conditional probabilities in Ponzano-Regge minisuperspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petryk, Roman; Schleich, Kristin

    2003-01-01

    We examine the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary initial state for the Ponzano-Regge formulation of gravity in three dimensions. We consider the behavior of conditional probabilities and expectation values for geometrical quantities in this initial state for a simple minisuperspace model consisting of a two-parameter set of anisotropic geometries on a 2-sphere boundary. We find dependence on the cutoff used in the construction of Ponzano-Regge amplitudes for expectation values of edge lengths. However, these expectation values are cutoff independent when computed in certain, but not all, conditional probability distributions. Conditions that yield cutoff independent expectation values are those that constrain the boundary geometry to a finite range of edge lengths. We argue that such conditions have a correspondence to fixing a range of local time, as classically associated with the area of a surface for spatially closed cosmologies. Thus these results may hint at how classical spacetime emerges from quantum amplitudes

  11. Absolute transition probabilities for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, J J, E-mail: jjcurry@nist.go [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8422 (United States)

    2009-07-07

    Absolute radiative transition probabilities are reported for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium covering the wavelength range 340-880 nm. These transition probabilities are obtained by scaling published relative line intensities (Meggers et al 1975 Tables of Spectral Line Intensities (National Bureau of Standards Monograph 145)) with a smaller set of published absolute transition probabilities (Bisson et al 1991 J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 8 1545). All 559 new values are for lines for which transition probabilities have not previously been available. The estimated relative random uncertainty of the new data is +-35% for nearly all lines.

  12. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  14. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  15. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  16. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  17. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  18. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  19. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  20. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  1. Changes in screening behaviors and attitudes toward screening from pre-test genetic counseling to post-disclosure in Lynch syndrome families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Chase, Allison M.; Hovick, Shelly R.; Peterson, Susan K.; Marani, Salma K.; Vernon, Sally W.; Amos, Christopher I.; Frazier, Marsha L.; Lynch, Patrick M.; Gritz, Ellen R.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose This study examined colonoscopy adherence and attitudes towards colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in individuals who underwent Lynch syndrome genetic counseling and testing. Methods We evaluated changes in colonoscopy adherence and CRC screening attitudes in 78 cancer-unaffected relatives of Lynch syndrome mutation carriers before pre-test genetic counseling (baseline) and at 6 and 12 months post-disclosure of test results (52 mutation-negative, 26 mutation-positive). Results While both groups were similar at baseline, at 12 months post-disclosure, a greater number of mutation-positive individuals had had a colonoscopy compared with mutation-negative individuals. From baseline to 12 months post-disclosure, the mutation-positive group demonstrated an increase in mean scores on measures of colonoscopy commitment, self-efficacy, and perceived benefits of CRC screening, and a decrease in mean scores for perceived barriers to CRC screening. Mean scores on colonoscopy commitment decreased from baseline to 6 months in the mutation-negative group. Conclusion Adherence to risk-appropriate guidelines for CRC surveillance improved after genetic counseling and testing for Lynch syndrome. Mutation-positive individuals reported increasingly positive attitudes toward CRC screening after receiving genetic test results, potentially reinforcing longer term colonoscopy adherence. PMID:23414081

  2. Demand characteristics, pre-test attitudes and time-on-task trends in the effects of chewing gum on attention and reported mood in healthy volunteers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, A P; Smith, A P

    2012-10-01

    Previous research has indicated that chewing gum enhances reported alertness, but has variable effects on attention. Demand characteristics may explain these effects. The current study investigated the effects of gum and demand characteristics on attention and reported mood over time. Participants completed measures of mood and attention, with and without chewing gum. To manipulate demand characteristics, they were told that the hypothesised effect of gum was either positive or negative, or no hypothesis was mentioned. Attitudes towards gum were assessed pre- and post-manipulation. Gum increased reported alertness; this effect was only significant for positive and neutral demand characteristics. Vigilance accuracy was reduced for chewing gum, but only in the fourth minute of the task, and gum reduced focussed attention accuracy, but only for the first 64 trials. Demand characteristics did not moderate time-on-task effects. Gum improved selective attention. A positive effect on response organisation was observed; this was significant when demand characteristics and pre-test attitudes to gum were both negative. The results suggest that demand characteristics moderate effects on self-reported alertness and response organisation, but cannot explain time-on-task effects or variable main effects on other aspects of attention. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oas, G; Barros, J Acacio de; Carvalhaes, C

    2014-01-01

    Bipartite and tripartite EPR–Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory. (paper)

  4. PWR reactor pressure vessel failure probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.; Lanore, J.M.; Lucia, A.C.; Elbaz, J.; Brunnhuber, R.

    1980-05-01

    To evaluate the rupture probability of a LWR vessel a probabilistic method using the fracture mechanics under probabilistic form has been proposed previously, but it appears that more accurate evaluation is possible. In consequence a joint collaboration agreement signed in 1976 between CEA, EURATOM, JRC Ispra and FRAMATOME set up and started a research program covering three parts: a computer code development, data acquisition and processing, and a support experimental program which aims at clarifying the most important parameters used in the COVASTOL computer code

  5. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  6. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  7. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  8. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  9. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  10. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  11. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  12. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  13. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  14. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  15. Parametric modeling of probability of bank loan default in Kenya ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This makes the study on probability of a customer defaulting very useful while analyzing the credit risk policies. In this paper, we use a raw data set that contains demographic information about the borrowers. The data sets have been used to identify which risk factors associated with the borrowers contribute towards default.

  16. Can education improve clinical practice concerning delirium in older hospitalised patients? Results of a pre-test post-test study on an educational intervention for nursing staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Velthuijsen, Eveline L; Zwakhalen, Sandra M G; Warnier, Ron M J; Ambergen, Ton; Mulder, Wubbo J; Verhey, Frans R J; Kempen, Gertrudis I J M

    2018-04-02

    Delirium is a common and serious complication of hospitalisation in older adults. It can lead to prolonged hospital stay, institutionalisation, and even death. However, it often remains unrecognised or is not managed adequately. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of an educational intervention for nursing staff on three aspects of clinical practice concerning delirium in older hospitalised patients: the frequency and correctness of screening for delirium using the 13-item Delirium Observation Screening score (DOS), and the frequency of geriatric consultations requested for older patients. The a priori expectations were that there would be an increase in all three of these outcomes. We designed an educational intervention and implemented this on two inpatient hospital units. Before providing the educational session, the nursing staff was asked to fill out two questionnaires about delirium in older hospitalised patients. The educational session was then tailored to each unit based on the results of these questionnaires. Additionally, posters and flyers with information on the screening and management of delirium were provided and participants were shown where to find additional information. Relevant data (outcomes, demographics and background patient data) were collected retrospectively from digital medical files. Data was retrospectively collected for four different time points: three pre-test and one post-test. There was a significant increase in frequency of delirium screening (P = 0.001), and both units showed an increase in the correctness of the screening. No significant effect of the educational intervention was found for the proportion of patients who received a geriatric consultation (P = 0.083). The educational intervention was fairly successful in making positive changes in clinical practice: after the educational session an improvement in the frequency and correctness of screening for delirium was observed. A trend, though not

  17. Smokers' responses to television advertisements about the serious harms of tobacco use: pre-testing results from 10 low- to middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, Melanie; Bayly, Megan; Durkin, Sarah; Cotter, Trish; Mullin, Sandra; Warne, Charles

    2013-01-01

    While television advertisements (ads) that communicate the serious harms of smoking are effective in prompting quitting-related thoughts and actions, little research has been conducted among smokers in low- to middle-income countries to guide public education efforts. 2399 smokers aged 18-34 years in 10 low- to middle-income countries (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Turkey and Vietnam) viewed and individually rated the same five anti-smoking ads on a standard questionnaire and then engaged in a structured group discussion about each ad. Multivariate logistic regression analysis, with robust SEs to account for the same individual rating multiple ads, was performed to compare outcomes (message acceptance, perceived personalised effectiveness, feel uncomfortable, likelihood of discussing the ad) across ads and countries, adjusting for covariates. Ads by country interactions were examined to assess consistency of ratings across countries. Three ads with graphic imagery performed consistently highly across all countries. Two of these ads showed diseased human tissue or body parts, and a third used a disgust-provoking metaphor to demonstrate tar accumulation in smokers' lungs. A personal testimonial ad performed more variably, as many smokers did not appreciate that the featured woman's lung cancer was due to smoking or that her altered physical appearance was due to chemotherapy. An ad using a visual metaphor for lung disease was also more variable, mostly due to lack of understanding of the term 'emphysema'. Television ads that graphically communicate the serious harms of tobacco use are likely to be effective with smokers in low- to middle-income countries and can be readily translated and adapted for local use. Ads with complex medical terms or metaphors, or those that feature personal testimonials, are more variable and at least require more careful pre-testing and adaptation to maximise their potential.

  18. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  19. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  20. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  1. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  2. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  3. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  4. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  5. Lectures on probability and statistics. Revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1985-06-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. They begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probabilty of any specified outcome. They finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another. Hopefully, the reader will come away from these notes with a feel for some of the problems and uncertainties involved. Although there are standard approaches, most of the time there is no cut and dried ''best'' solution - ''best'' according to every criterion

  6. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  7. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  8. Probability densities and the radon variable transformation theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramshaw, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    D. T. Gillespie recently derived a random variable transformation theorem relating to the joint probability densities of functionally dependent sets of random variables. The present author points out that the theorem can be derived as an immediate corollary of a simpler and more fundamental relation. In this relation the probability density is represented as a delta function averaged over an unspecified distribution of unspecified internal random variables. The random variable transformation is derived from this relation

  9. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  10. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  11. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  12. Judgment, Probability, and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnick, Barbara

    1989-01-01

    Discusses Aristotle's five means of making judgments: intelligence, "episteme" (scientific knowledge), "sophia" (theoretical wisdom), "techne" (art), and "phronesis" (practical wisdom). Sets Aristotle's theory of rhetorical argument within the context of his overall view of human judgment. Notes that…

  13. Introduction to probability and statistics for engineers and scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon M

    2009-01-01

    This updated text provides a superior introduction to applied probability and statistics for engineering or science majors. Ross emphasizes the manner in which probability yields insight into statistical problems; ultimately resulting in an intuitive understanding of the statistical procedures most often used by practicing engineers and scientists. Real data sets are incorporated in a wide variety of exercises and examples throughout the book, and this emphasis on data motivates the probability coverage.As with the previous editions, Ross' text has remendously clear exposition, plus real-data

  14. Probability and Statistics The Science of Uncertainty (Revised Edition)

    CERN Document Server

    Tabak, John

    2011-01-01

    Probability and Statistics, Revised Edition deals with the history of probability, describing the modern concept of randomness and examining "pre-probabilistic" ideas of what most people today would characterize as randomness. This revised book documents some historically important early uses of probability to illustrate some very important probabilistic questions. It goes on to explore statistics and the generations of mathematicians and non-mathematicians who began to address problems in statistical analysis, including the statistical structure of data sets as well as the theory of

  15. Pre-Test CFD for the Design and Execution of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project at NASA Langley Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drozda, Tomasz G.; Axdahl, Erik L.; Cabell, Karen F.

    2014-01-01

    With the increasing costs of physics experiments and simultaneous increase in availability and maturity of computational tools it is not surprising that computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is playing an increasingly important role, not only in post-test investigations, but also in the early stages of experimental planning. This paper describes a CFD-based effort executed in close collaboration between computational fluid dynamicists and experimentalists to develop a virtual experiment during the early planning stages of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing project at NASA Langley Research Center. This projects aims to investigate supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) fuel injection and mixing physics, improve the understanding of underlying physical processes, and develop enhancement strategies and functional relationships relevant to flight Mach numbers greater than 8. The purpose of the virtual experiment was to provide flow field data to aid in the design of the experimental apparatus and the in-stream rake probes, to verify the nonintrusive measurements based on NO-PLIF, and to perform pre-test analysis of quantities obtainable from the experiment and CFD. The approach also allowed for the joint team to develop common data processing and analysis tools, and to test research ideas. The virtual experiment consisted of a series of Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS). These simulations included the facility nozzle, the experimental apparatus with a baseline strut injector, and the test cabin. Pure helium and helium-air mixtures were used to determine the efficacy of different inert gases to model hydrogen injection. The results of the simulations were analyzed by computing mixing efficiency, total pressure recovery, and stream thrust potential. As the experimental effort progresses, the simulation results will be compared with the experimental data to calibrate the modeling constants present in the CFD and validate simulation fidelity. CFD will also be used to

  16. Pre-test analysis of a LBLOCA using the design data of the ATLAS facility, a reduced-height integral effect test loop for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun-Sik Park; Ki-Yong Choi; Dong-Jin Euh; Tae-Soon Kwon; Won-Pil Baek

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The simulation capability of the KAERI integral effect test facility, ATLAS (Advanced Thermalhydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation), has been assessed for a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) transient. The ATLAS facility is a 1/2 height-scaled, 1/144 area-scaled (1/288 in volume scale), and full-pressure test loop based on the design features of the APR1400, an evolutionary pressurized water reactor that has been developed by Korean industry. The APR1400 has four mechanically separated hydraulic trains for the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) with direct vessel injection (DVI). The APR1400 design features have brought about several new safety issues related to the LBLOCA including the steam-water interaction, ECC bypass, and boiling in the reactor vessel downcomer. The ATLAS facility will be used to investigate the multiple responses between the systems or between the components during various anticipated transients. The ATLAS facility has been designed according to a scaling method that is mainly based on the model suggested by Ishii and Kataoka. The ATLAS facility is being evaluated against the prototype plant APR1400 with the same control logics and accident scenarios using the best-estimated code, MARS. This paper briefly introduces the basic design features of the ATLAS facility and presents the results of pre-test analysis for a postulated LBLOCA of a cold leg. The LBLOCA analyses has been conducted to assess the validity of the applied scaling law and the similarity between the ATLAS facility and the APR1400. As the core simulator of the ATLAS facility has the 10% capability of the scaled full power, the blowdown phase can not be simulated, and the starting point of the accident scenario is around the end of blowdown. So it is an important problem to find the correct initial conditions. For the analyzed LBLOCA scenario, the ATLAS facility showed very similar thermal-hydraulic characteristics to the APR

  17. Counting SET-free sets

    OpenAIRE

    Harman, Nate

    2016-01-01

    We consider the following counting problem related to the card game SET: How many $k$-element SET-free sets are there in an $n$-dimensional SET deck? Through a series of algebraic reformulations and reinterpretations, we show the answer to this question satisfies two polynomiality conditions.

  18. Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smithson, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at "best" probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of "best" estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity.

  19. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  20. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  1. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  2. Combinatorics of finite sets

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, Ian

    2011-01-01

    Coherent treatment provides comprehensive view of basic methods and results of the combinatorial study of finite set systems. The Clements-Lindstrom extension of the Kruskal-Katona theorem to multisets is explored, as is the Greene-Kleitman result concerning k-saturated chain partitions of general partially ordered sets. Connections with Dilworth's theorem, the marriage problem, and probability are also discussed. Each chapter ends with a helpful series of exercises and outline solutions appear at the end. ""An excellent text for a topics course in discrete mathematics."" - Bulletin of the Ame

  3. Automatic sets and Delone sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbe, A; Haeseler, F von

    2004-01-01

    Automatic sets D part of Z m are characterized by having a finite number of decimations. They are equivalently generated by fixed points of certain substitution systems, or by certain finite automata. As examples, two-dimensional versions of the Thue-Morse, Baum-Sweet, Rudin-Shapiro and paperfolding sequences are presented. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for an automatic set D part of Z m to be a Delone set in R m . The result is then extended to automatic sets that are defined as fixed points of certain substitutions. The morphology of automatic sets is discussed by means of examples

  4. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  5. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  6. Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

    2017-07-01

    Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

  7. Single Trial Probability Applications: Can Subjectivity Evade Frequency Limitations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Howden

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Frequency probability theorists define an event’s probability distribution as the limit of a repeated set of trials belonging to a homogeneous collective. The subsets of this collective are events which we have deficient knowledge about on an individual level, although for the larger collective we have knowledge its aggregate behavior. Hence, probabilities can only be achieved through repeated trials of these subsets arriving at the established frequencies that define the probabilities. Crovelli (2009 argues that this is a mistaken approach, and that a subjective assessment of individual trials should be used instead. Bifurcating between the two concepts of risk and uncertainty, Crovelli first asserts that probability is the tool used to manage uncertain situations, and then attempts to rebuild a definition of probability theory with this in mind. We show that such an attempt has little to gain, and results in an indeterminate application of entrepreneurial forecasting to uncertain decisions—a process far-removed from any application of probability theory.

  8. Recommendations for the tuning of rare event probability estimators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balesdent, Mathieu; Morio, Jérôme; Marzat, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Being able to accurately estimate rare event probabilities is a challenging issue in order to improve the reliability of complex systems. Several powerful methods such as importance sampling, importance splitting or extreme value theory have been proposed in order to reduce the computational cost and to improve the accuracy of extreme probability estimation. However, the performance of these methods is highly correlated with the choice of tuning parameters, which are very difficult to determine. In order to highlight recommended tunings for such methods, an empirical campaign of automatic tuning on a set of representative test cases is conducted for splitting methods. It allows to provide a reduced set of tuning parameters that may lead to the reliable estimation of rare event probability for various problems. The relevance of the obtained result is assessed on a series of real-world aerospace problems

  9. Spirometry use: detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the primary care setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Thomas A; Fromer, Len

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To describe a practical method for family practitioners to stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by the use of office spirometry. Methods: This is a review of the lessons learned from evaluations of the use of office spirometry in the primary care setting to identify best practices using the most recent published evaluations of office spirometry and the analysis of preliminary data from a recent spirometry mass screening project. A mass screening study by the American Association for Respiratory Care and the COPD Foundation was used to identify the most effective way for general practitioners to implement office spirometry in order to stage COPD. Results: A simple three-step method is described to identify people with a high pre-test probability in an attempt to detect moderate to severe COPD: COPD questionnaire, measurement of peak expiratory flow, and office spirometry. Clinical practice guidelines exist for office spirometry basics for safety, use of electronic peak flow devices, and portable spirometers. Conclusion: Spirometry can be undertaken in primary care offices with acceptable levels of technical expertise. Using office spirometry, primary care physicians can diagnose the presence and severity of COPD. Spirometry can guide therapies for COPD and predict outcomes when used in general practice. PMID:21472091

  10. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  11. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  12. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  13. Joint probabilities reproducing three EPR experiments on two qubits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roy, S. M.; Atkinson, D.; Auberson, G.; Mahoux, G.; Singh, V.

    2007-01-01

    An eight-parameter family of the most general non-negative quadruple probabilities is constructed for EPR-Bohm-Aharonov experiments when only three pairs of analyser settings are used. It is a simultaneous representation of three different Bohr-incompatible experimental configurations involving

  14. Determination of bounds on failure probability in the presence of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In particular, fuzzy set theory provides a more rational framework for ..... indicating that the random variations inT andO2 do not affect failure probability significantly. ... The upper-bound for PF shown in figure 6 can be used in decision-making.

  15. The utility of imputed matched sets. Analyzing probabilistically linked databases in a low information setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A M; Cook, L J; Dean, J M; Olson, L M

    2014-01-01

    To compare results from high probability matched sets versus imputed matched sets across differing levels of linkage information. A series of linkages with varying amounts of available information were performed on two simulated datasets derived from multiyear motor vehicle crash (MVC) and hospital databases, where true matches were known. Distributions of high probability and imputed matched sets were compared against the true match population for occupant age, MVC county, and MVC hour. Regression models were fit to simulated log hospital charges and hospitalization status. High probability and imputed matched sets were not significantly different from occupant age, MVC county, and MVC hour in high information settings (p > 0.999). In low information settings, high probability matched sets were significantly different from occupant age and MVC county (p sets were not (p > 0.493). High information settings saw no significant differences in inference of simulated log hospital charges and hospitalization status between the two methods. High probability and imputed matched sets were significantly different from the outcomes in low information settings; however, imputed matched sets were more robust. The level of information available to a linkage is an important consideration. High probability matched sets are suitable for high to moderate information settings and for situations involving case-specific analysis. Conversely, imputed matched sets are preferable for low information settings when conducting population-based analyses.

  16. Foundations of the theory of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, AN

    2018-01-01

    This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

  17. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  18. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  19. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  20. Practical differences among probabilities, possibilities, and credibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandin, Jean-Francois; Moulin, Caroline

    2002-03-01

    This paper presents some important differences that exist between theories, which allow the uncertainty management in data fusion. The main comparative results illustrated in this paper are the followings: Incompatibility between decisions got from probabilities and credibilities is highlighted. In the dynamic frame, as remarked in [19] or [17], belief and plausibility of Dempster-Shafer model do not frame the Bayesian probability. This framing can however be obtained by the Modified Dempster-Shafer approach. It also can be obtained in the Bayesian framework either by simulation techniques, or with a studentization. The uncommitted in the Dempster-Shafer way, e.g. the mass accorded to the ignorance, gives a mechanism similar to the reliability in the Bayesian model. Uncommitted mass in Dempster-Shafer theory or reliability in Bayes theory act like a filter that weakens extracted information, and improves robustness to outliners. So, it is logical to observe on examples like the one presented particularly by D.M. Buede, a faster convergence of a Bayesian method that doesn't take into account the reliability, in front of Dempster-Shafer method which uses uncommitted mass. But, on Bayesian masses, if reliability is taken into account, at the same level that the uncommited, e.g. F=1-m, we observe an equivalent rate for convergence. When Dempster-Shafer and Bayes operator are informed by uncertainty, faster or lower convergence can be exhibited on non Bayesian masses. This is due to positive or negative synergy between information delivered by sensors. This effect is a direct consequence of non additivity when considering non Bayesian masses. Unknowledge of the prior in bayesian techniques can be quickly compensated by information accumulated as time goes on by a set of sensors. All these results are presented on simple examples, and developed when necessary.

  1. Increasing Classroom Compliance: Using a High-Probability Command Sequence with Noncompliant Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrod, Michael I.; Zank, Amber J.

    2012-01-01

    Noncompliance is one of the most problematic behaviors within the school setting. One strategy to increase compliance of noncompliant students is a high-probability command sequence (HPCS; i.e., a set of simple commands in which an individual is likely to comply immediately prior to the delivery of a command that has a lower probability of…

  2. Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

    2002-01-01

    Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

  3. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  4. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  5. Probabilistic Open Set Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Lalit Prithviraj

    Real-world tasks in computer vision, pattern recognition and machine learning often touch upon the open set recognition problem: multi-class recognition with incomplete knowledge of the world and many unknown inputs. An obvious way to approach such problems is to develop a recognition system that thresholds probabilities to reject unknown classes. Traditional rejection techniques are not about the unknown; they are about the uncertain boundary and rejection around that boundary. Thus traditional techniques only represent the "known unknowns". However, a proper open set recognition algorithm is needed to reduce the risk from the "unknown unknowns". This dissertation examines this concept and finds existing probabilistic multi-class recognition approaches are ineffective for true open set recognition. We hypothesize the cause is due to weak adhoc assumptions combined with closed-world assumptions made by existing calibration techniques. Intuitively, if we could accurately model just the positive data for any known class without overfitting, we could reject the large set of unknown classes even under this assumption of incomplete class knowledge. For this, we formulate the problem as one of modeling positive training data by invoking statistical extreme value theory (EVT) near the decision boundary of positive data with respect to negative data. We provide a new algorithm called the PI-SVM for estimating the unnormalized posterior probability of class inclusion. This dissertation also introduces a new open set recognition model called Compact Abating Probability (CAP), where the probability of class membership decreases in value (abates) as points move from known data toward open space. We show that CAP models improve open set recognition for multiple algorithms. Leveraging the CAP formulation, we go on to describe the novel Weibull-calibrated SVM (W-SVM) algorithm, which combines the useful properties of statistical EVT for score calibration with one-class and binary

  6. Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, T.; Aki, K.

    1983-03-10

    We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

  7. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  8. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  9. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  10. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  11. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Bueno-Soler

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  12. Probability Estimation in the Framework of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafei Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF evidence theory, as an extension of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to the intuitionistic fuzzy environment, is exploited to process imprecise and vague information. Since its inception, much interest has been concentrated on IF evidence theory. Many works on the belief functions in IF information systems have appeared. Although belief functions on the IF sets can deal with uncertainty and vagueness well, it is not convenient for decision making. This paper addresses the issue of probability estimation in the framework of IF evidence theory with the hope of making rational decision. Background knowledge about evidence theory, fuzzy set, and IF set is firstly reviewed, followed by introduction of IF evidence theory. Axiomatic properties of probability distribution are then proposed to assist our interpretation. Finally, probability estimations based on fuzzy and IF belief functions together with their proofs are presented. It is verified that the probability estimation method based on IF belief functions is also potentially applicable to classical evidence theory and fuzzy evidence theory. Moreover, IF belief functions can be combined in a convenient way once they are transformed to interval-valued possibilities.

  13. Probability, statistics, and associated computing techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.

    1983-01-01

    This chapter attempts to explore the extent to which it is possible for the experimental physicist to find optimal statistical techniques to provide a unique and unambiguous quantitative measure of the significance of raw data. Discusses statistics as the inverse of probability; normal theory of parameter estimation; normal theory (Gaussian measurements); the universality of the Gaussian distribution; real-life resolution functions; combination and propagation of uncertainties; the sum or difference of 2 variables; local theory, or the propagation of small errors; error on the ratio of 2 discrete variables; the propagation of large errors; confidence intervals; classical theory; Bayesian theory; use of the likelihood function; the second derivative of the log-likelihood function; multiparameter confidence intervals; the method of MINOS; least squares; the Gauss-Markov theorem; maximum likelihood for uniform error distribution; the Chebyshev fit; the parameter uncertainties; the efficiency of the Chebyshev estimator; error symmetrization; robustness vs. efficiency; testing of hypotheses (e.g., the Neyman-Pearson test); goodness-of-fit; distribution-free tests; comparing two one-dimensional distributions; comparing multidimensional distributions; and permutation tests for comparing two point sets

  14. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  15. Human Error Analysis by Fuzzy-Set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Situmorang, Johnny

    1996-01-01

    In conventional HRA the probability of Error is treated as a single and exact value through constructing even tree, but in this moment the Fuzzy-Set Theory is used. Fuzzy set theory treat the probability of error as a plausibility which illustrate a linguistic variable. Most parameter or variable in human engineering been defined verbal good, fairly good, worst etc. Which describe a range of any value of probability. For example this analysis is quantified the human error in calibration task, and the probability of miscalibration is very low

  16. Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiao-Kan

    2018-03-01

    We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

  17. Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Furber

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

  18. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  19. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  20. Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nicholas

    2017-06-14

    Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

  1. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  2. Semantic and associative factors in probability learning with words.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, L M; Hanson, B L; Taylor, G; Thorpe, J A

    1973-09-01

    Using a probability-learning technique with a single word as the cue and with the probability of a given event following this word fixed at .80, it was found (1) that neither high nor low associates to the original word and (2) that neither synonyms nor antonyms showed differential learning curves subsequent to original learning when the probability for the following event was shifted to .20. In a second study when feedback, in the form of knowledge of results, was withheld, there was a clear-cut similarity of predictions to the originally trained word and the synonyms of both high and low association value and a dissimilarity of these words to a set of antonyms of both high and low association value. Two additional studies confirmed the importance of the semantic dimension as compared with association value as traditionally measured.

  3. Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

  4. Markov set-chains

    CERN Document Server

    Hartfiel, Darald J

    1998-01-01

    In this study extending classical Markov chain theory to handle fluctuating transition matrices, the author develops a theory of Markov set-chains and provides numerous examples showing how that theory can be applied. Chapters are concluded with a discussion of related research. Readers who can benefit from this monograph are those interested in, or involved with, systems whose data is imprecise or that fluctuate with time. A background equivalent to a course in linear algebra and one in probability theory should be sufficient.

  5. Pre-test data and lessons learned from a group research project examining changes in physical activity behavior following construction of a rails-to-trails facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, Sheryl L; Mumaw, Elizabeth; Davis, T; Hallam, Jeffrey S

    2014-04-01

    Built environments in rural settings may provide greater challenges than those in urban settings due to physical characteristics inherent to low-density population areas. Multiuse recreational trails, such as those that repurpose abandoned railroad lines, may provide a physical activity resource that is well suited to rural areas. However, the direct impact of trail availability on physical activity behavior is not generally known because it is unclear whether activity reported in most trail research represents increases in physical activity or displacement of activity in individuals who previously exercised in other locations. This research, initiated by a group of students in a graduate seminar, represents to our knowledge, the first instance in which PA was assessed prior to the availability of an entirely new rails-to-trails facility. The research was implemented using a nonequivalent dependent variable design to counter the lack of a control group; the nonequivalent dependent variable chosen was weekly servings of fruit and vegetables. Participants responding to intercept interviews classified days of activity during the prior week as mild, moderate or vigorous. Baseline results for 244 participants suggested generally low levels of activity prior to trail availability; number of reported days of activity decreased with described intensity. We also discuss several issues encountered in planning and implementing this group project including those related to data collection, variable levels of commitment among student members, and inconsistent project management, and offer potential solutions to these concerns.

  6. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Druker

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

  7. Is probability of frequency too narrow?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

  8. Quantum mechanics over sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerman, David

    2014-03-01

    In models of QM over finite fields (e.g., Schumacher's ``modal quantum theory'' MQT), one finite field stands out, Z2, since Z2 vectors represent sets. QM (finite-dimensional) mathematics can be transported to sets resulting in quantum mechanics over sets or QM/sets. This gives a full probability calculus (unlike MQT with only zero-one modalities) that leads to a fulsome theory of QM/sets including ``logical'' models of the double-slit experiment, Bell's Theorem, QIT, and QC. In QC over Z2 (where gates are non-singular matrices as in MQT), a simple quantum algorithm (one gate plus one function evaluation) solves the Parity SAT problem (finding the parity of the sum of all values of an n-ary Boolean function). Classically, the Parity SAT problem requires 2n function evaluations in contrast to the one function evaluation required in the quantum algorithm. This is quantum speedup but with all the calculations over Z2 just like classical computing. This shows definitively that the source of quantum speedup is not in the greater power of computing over the complex numbers, and confirms the idea that the source is in superposition.

  9. On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

    2014-01-01

    The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule. (paper)

  10. Introduction to Fuzzy Set Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosko, Bart

    1990-01-01

    An introduction to fuzzy set theory is described. Topics covered include: neural networks and fuzzy systems; the dynamical systems approach to machine intelligence; intelligent behavior as adaptive model-free estimation; fuzziness versus probability; fuzzy sets; the entropy-subsethood theorem; adaptive fuzzy systems for backing up a truck-and-trailer; product-space clustering with differential competitive learning; and adaptive fuzzy system for target tracking.

  11. Julia Sets of Orthogonal Polynomials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Jacob Stordal; Henriksen, Christian; Petersen, Henrik Laurberg

    2018-01-01

    For a probability measure with compact and non-polar support in the complex plane we relate dynamical properties of the associated sequence of orthogonal polynomials fPng to properties of the support. More precisely we relate the Julia set of Pn to the outer boundary of the support, the lled Julia...... set to the polynomial convex hull K of the support, and the Green's function associated with Pn to the Green's function for the complement of K....

  12. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

  13. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

  14. Introducing Disjoint and Independent Events in Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, I. W.; Zwiers, F. W.

    Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…

  15. Selected papers on probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2009-01-01

    This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

  16. Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

    2003-01-01

    General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

  17. Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.

  18. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

  19. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  20. Some open problems in noncommutative probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruszynski, P.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

  1. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  2. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  3. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

  4. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  5. Against All Odds: When Logic Meets Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Benthem, J.; Katoen, J.-P.; Langerak, R.; Rensink, A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a light walk along interfaces between logic and probability, triggered by a chance encounter with Ed Brinksma. It is not a research paper, or a literature survey, but a pointer to issues. I discuss both direct combinations of logic and probability and structured ways in which logic can

  6. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  7. The probability of the false vacuum decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

    1983-01-01

    The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

  8. Probability elements of the mathematical theory

    CERN Document Server

    Heathcote, C R

    2000-01-01

    Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

  9. The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, T.A.B.

    1999-01-01

    The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

  10. Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

  11. Investigation of nuclear structures using transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewald, A.; Moeller, O.; Peusquens, R.

    2002-01-01

    Magnetic rotation which appears as regular M1 bands in the spectra, is a well established phenomenon in several Pb isotopes. In the A = 130 region where similar M1 bands are known, e.g. in 124 Xe and 128 Ba, it is still not clear whether it does exists. Crucial experimental observables are the B (M1) values which -are expected to decrease with in creasing spin. At Strasbourg a recoil distance measurement (RDM) with the EUROBALL spectrometer at Strasbourg and the Koeln plunger using the reaction 110 Pd( 18 O, 4n) 124 Xe at a beam energy of 86 MeV yielded preliminary lifetimes of ground band states and states of the M1 band. The deduced B(M1) values show the expected behaviour for magnetic rotation. It is also shown that the experimental B(M1) values can be described as well on the basis of a rotational band. The measured B(E2) values are used to investigate the nuclear deformation of 124 Xe as well as the interaction of the ground state band with two s-bands. Spherical deformed shape coexistence is investigated by means of electromagnetic transition probabilities in the case of 188 Pb. Lifetimes were measured in 188 Pb using a novel combination of the Koeln plunger device with the GSFMA set-up at ATLAS. The reaction 40 Ca ( 152 Sm, 4n) 188 Pb at a beam energy of 725 MeV in inverse kinematics is used. It is found that the lowest 2 + state is predominantly of prolate structure

  12. The enigma of probability and physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayants, L.

    1984-01-01

    This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

  13. Impact of a "TED-Style" presentation on potential patients' willingness to accept dental implant therapy: a one-group, pre-test post-test study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Henry; Afrashtehfar, Kelvin Ian; Abi-Nader, Samer; Tamimi, Faleh

    2015-12-01

    A survey was conducted to assess the impact of a TED-like educational session on participants' willingness to accept dental implant therapy. Volunteers interested in having information about dental implant therapies were recruited and asked to complete a two-part survey before and after an educational session. The initial survey elicited demographic information, self-perceived knowledge on dental implants and willingness to this kind of treatment. A "TED-style" presentation that provided information about dental implant treatments was conducted before asking the participants to complete a second set of questions assessing the impact of the session. The survey was completed by 104 individuals, 78.8% were women and the mean age was 66.5±10.8. Before the educational session, 76.0% of the participants refused dental implants mainly due to lack of knowledge. After the educational session, the rejection of dental implants decreased by almost four folds to 20.2%. This study proved that an educational intervention can significantly increase willingness to accept treatment with dental implants in a segment of the population who is interested in having information about dental implant therapy. Furthermore, educational interventions, such as TED-like talks, might be useful to increase popular awareness on dental implant therapy.

  14. Impact of a "TED-Style" presentation on potential patients' willingness to accept dental implant therapy: a one-group, pre-test post-test study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Henry; Abi-Nader, Samer

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE A survey was conducted to assess the impact of a TED-like educational session on participants' willingness to accept dental implant therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS Volunteers interested in having information about dental implant therapies were recruited and asked to complete a two-part survey before and after an educational session. The initial survey elicited demographic information, self-perceived knowledge on dental implants and willingness to this kind of treatment. A "TED-style" presentation that provided information about dental implant treatments was conducted before asking the participants to complete a second set of questions assessing the impact of the session. RESULTS The survey was completed by 104 individuals, 78.8% were women and the mean age was 66.5±10.8. Before the educational session, 76.0% of the participants refused dental implants mainly due to lack of knowledge. After the educational session, the rejection of dental implants decreased by almost four folds to 20.2%. CONCLUSION This study proved that an educational intervention can significantly increase willingness to accept treatment with dental implants in a segment of the population who is interested in having information about dental implant therapy. Furthermore, educational interventions, such as TED-like talks, might be useful to increase popular awareness on dental implant therapy. PMID:26816573

  15. Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2000-01-01

    It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

  16. Failure probability analysis of optical grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

    2008-11-01

    Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

  17. Rejecting probability summation for radial frequency patterns, not so Quick!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Alex S; Schmidtmann, Gunnar; Kingdom, Frederick A A; Hess, Robert F

    2016-05-01

    Radial frequency (RF) patterns are used to assess how the visual system processes shape. They are thought to be detected globally. This is supported by studies that have found summation for RF patterns to be greater than what is possible if the parts were being independently detected and performance only then improved with an increasing number of cycles by probability summation between them. However, the model of probability summation employed in these previous studies was based on High Threshold Theory (HTT), rather than Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We conducted rating scale experiments to investigate the receiver operating characteristics. We find these are of the curved form predicted by SDT, rather than the straight lines predicted by HTT. This means that to test probability summation we must use a model based on SDT. We conducted a set of summation experiments finding that thresholds decrease as the number of modulated cycles increases at approximately the same rate as previously found. As this could be consistent with either additive or probability summation, we performed maximum-likelihood fitting of a set of summation models (Matlab code provided in our Supplementary material) and assessed the fits using cross validation. We find we are not able to distinguish whether the responses to the parts of an RF pattern are combined by additive or probability summation, because the predictions are too similar. We present similar results for summation between separate RF patterns, suggesting that the summation process there may be the same as that within a single RF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  19. Approximation of Measurement Results of “Emergency” Signal Reception Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajda Stanisław

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The intended aim of this article is to present approximation results of the exemplary measurements of EMERGENCY signal reception probability. The probability is under-stood as a distance function between the aircraft and a ground-based system under established conditions. The measurements were approximated using the properties of logistic functions. This probability, as a distance function, enables to determine the range of the EMERGENCY signal for a pre-set confidence level.

  20. Loaded dice in Monte Carlo : importance sampling in phase space integration and probability distributions for discrepancies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hameren, Andreas Ferdinand Willem van

    2001-01-01

    Discrepancies play an important role in the study of uniformity properties of point sets. Their probability distributions are a help in the analysis of the efficiency of the Quasi Monte Carlo method of numerical integration, which uses point sets that are distributed more uniformly than sets of

  1. Probability an introduction with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kinney, John J

    2014-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

  2. Dependency models and probability of joint events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oerjasaeter, O.

    1982-08-01

    Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

  3. Handbook of probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rudas, Tamas

    2008-01-01

    ""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari

  4. Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Schumann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

  5. Concept of probability in statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guttmann, Y M

    1999-01-01

    Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

  6. Computation of the Complex Probability Function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-22

    The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the nth degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

  7. Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

  8. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  9. The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

  10. Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S

    2004-01-01

    Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.

  11. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  12. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  13. Modelling the probability of building fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojtěch Barták

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

  14. Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

    1998-01-01

    wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

  15. Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

    2008-08-01

    The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

  16. Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  17. The probability factor in establishing causation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hebert, J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of methods using the probability factor in establishing the causal link between bodily injury, whether immediate or delayed, and the nuclear incident presumed to have caused it (NEA) [fr

  18. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  19. Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2015-01-01

    We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

  20. Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Amin, Mitesh; Santee, William R

    2008-01-01

    A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure at sea in both air and water for a wide range of environmental conditions...

  1. Probability and statistics with integrated software routines

    CERN Document Server

    Deep, Ronald

    2005-01-01

    Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods

  2. Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2006-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

  3. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClure, J.D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

  4. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  5. Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-13

    Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

  6. Escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerke, M.A.

    1980-01-01

    An improved technique for the generation of escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry was applied to the existing resonance cross section processing code ROLAIDS. The algorithm of Hwang and Toppel, [ANL-FRA-TM-118] (with modifications) was employed. The probabilities generated were found to be as accurate as those given by the method previously applied in ROLAIDS, while requiring much less computer core storage and CPU time

  7. Probability and statistics for computer science

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, James L

    2011-01-01

    Comprehensive and thorough development of both probability and statistics for serious computer scientists; goal-oriented: ""to present the mathematical analysis underlying probability results"" Special emphases on simulation and discrete decision theory Mathematically-rich, but self-contained text, at a gentle pace Review of calculus and linear algebra in an appendix Mathematical interludes (in each chapter) which examine mathematical techniques in the context of probabilistic or statistical importance Numerous section exercises, summaries, historical notes, and Further Readings for reinforcem

  8. Collision Probabilities for Finite Cylinders and Cuboids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlvik, I

    1967-05-15

    Analytical formulae have been derived for the collision probabilities of homogeneous finite cylinders and cuboids. The formula for the finite cylinder contains double integrals, and the formula for the cuboid only single integrals. Collision probabilities have been calculated by means of the formulae and compared with values obtained by other authors. It was found that the calculations using the analytical formulae are much quicker and give higher accuracy than Monte Carlo calculations.

  9. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  10. Fluctuating States: What is the Probability of a Thermodynamical Transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro M. Alhambra

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available If the second law of thermodynamics forbids a transition from one state to another, then it is still possible to make the transition happen by using a sufficient amount of work. But if we do not have access to this amount of work, can the transition happen probabilistically? In the thermodynamic limit, this probability tends to zero, but here we find that for finite-sized and quantum systems it can be finite. We compute the maximum probability of a transition or a thermodynamical fluctuation from any initial state to any final state and show that this maximum can be achieved for any final state that is block diagonal in the energy eigenbasis. We also find upper and lower bounds on this transition probability, in terms of the work of transition. As a by-product, we introduce a finite set of thermodynamical monotones related to the thermomajorization criteria which governs state transitions and compute the work of transition in terms of them. The trade-off between the probability of a transition and any partial work added to aid in that transition is also considered. Our results have applications in entanglement theory, and we find the amount of entanglement required (or gained when transforming one pure entangled state into any other.

  11. Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Elias Costa

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

  12. Generic Degraded Configuration Probability Analysis for the Codisposal Waste Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

    2001-01-01

    In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M and O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k eff in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package

  13. Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

    2009-05-01

    The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

  14. Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, D; Buehler, R

    1999-02-01

    Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  15. An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

  16. Integer Set Compression and Statistical Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, N. Jesper

    2014-01-01

    enumeration of elements may be arbitrary or random, but where statistics is kept in order to estimate probabilities of elements. We present a recursive subset-size encoding method that is able to benefit from statistics, explore the effects of permuting the enumeration order based on element probabilities......Compression of integer sets and sequences has been extensively studied for settings where elements follow a uniform probability distribution. In addition, methods exist that exploit clustering of elements in order to achieve higher compression performance. In this work, we address the case where...

  17. Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions

    CERN Document Server

    Thomopoulos, Nick T

    2018-01-01

    This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...

  18. Response to Yellman and Murray's comment on 'The meaning of probability in probabilistic risk analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    In their comment on a recent contribution of mine, [Watson, S., The meaning of probability in probabilistic safety analysis. Reliab. Engng and System Safety, 45 (1994) 261-269.] Yellman and Murray assert that (1) I argue in favour of a realistic interpretation of probability for PSAs; (2) that the only satisfactory philosophical theory of probability is the relative frequency theory; (3) that I mean the same thing by the words 'uncertainty' and 'probability'; (4) that my argument can easily lead to the belief that the output of PSAs are meaningless. I take issue with all these points, and in this response I set out my arguments

  19. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Crovelli

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

  1. Diagnostic probability function for acute coronary heart disease garnered from experts' tacit knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steurer, Johann; Held, Ulrike; Miettinen, Olli S

    2013-11-01

    Knowing about a diagnostic probability requires general knowledge about the way in which the probability depends on the diagnostic indicators involved in the specification of the case at issue. Diagnostic probability functions (DPFs) are generally unavailable at present. Our objective was to illustrate how diagnostic experts' case-specific tacit knowledge about diagnostic probabilities could be garnered in the form of DPFs. Focusing on diagnosis of acute coronary heart disease (ACHD), we presented doctors with extensive experience in hospitals' emergency departments a set of hypothetical cases specified in terms of an inclusive set of diagnostic indicators. We translated the medians of these experts' case-specific probabilities into a logistic DPF for ACHD. The principal result was the experts' typical diagnostic probability for ACHD as a joint function of the set of diagnostic indicators. A related result of note was the finding that the experts' probabilities in any given case had a surprising degree of variability. Garnering diagnostic experts' case-specific tacit knowledge about diagnostic probabilities in the form of DPFs is feasible to accomplish. Thus, once the methodology of this type of work has been "perfected," practice-guiding diagnostic expert systems can be developed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Fitting the Probability Distribution Functions to Model Particulate Matter Concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to identify the best probability distribution and the plotting position formula for modeling the concentrations of Total Suspended Particles (TSP) as well as the Particulate Matter with an aerodynamic diameter<10 μm (PM 10 ). The best distribution provides the estimated probabilities that exceed the threshold limit given by the Egyptian Air Quality Limit value (EAQLV) as well the number of exceedance days is estimated. The standard limits of the EAQLV for TSP and PM 10 concentrations are 24-h average of 230 μg/m 3 and 70 μg/m 3 , respectively. Five frequency distribution functions with seven formula of plotting positions (empirical cumulative distribution functions) are compared to fit the average of daily TSP and PM 10 concentrations in year 2014 for Ain Sokhna city. The Quantile-Quantile plot (Q-Q plot) is used as a method for assessing how closely a data set fits a particular distribution. A proper probability distribution that represents the TSP and PM 10 has been chosen based on the statistical performance indicator values. The results show that Hosking and Wallis plotting position combined with Frechet distribution gave the highest fit for TSP and PM 10 concentrations. Burr distribution with the same plotting position follows Frechet distribution. The exceedance probability and days over the EAQLV are predicted using Frechet distribution. In 2014, the exceedance probability and days for TSP concentrations are 0.052 and 19 days, respectively. Furthermore, the PM 10 concentration is found to exceed the threshold limit by 174 days

  3. Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

  4. Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

  5. Comparing coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohler, Ulrich; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2011-01-01

    In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general decomposi......In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general...... decomposition method that is unaffected by the rescaling or attenuation bias that arise in cross-model comparisons in nonlinear models. It recovers the degree to which a control variable, Z, mediates or explains the relationship between X and a latent outcome variable, Y*, underlying the nonlinear probability...

  6. A basic course in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, Rabi

    2016-01-01

    This text develops the necessary background in probability theory underlying diverse treatments of stochastic processes and their wide-ranging applications. In this second edition, the text has been reorganized for didactic purposes, new exercises have been added and basic theory has been expanded. General Markov dependent sequences and their convergence to equilibrium is the subject of an entirely new chapter. The introduction of conditional expectation and conditional probability very early in the text maintains the pedagogic innovation of the first edition; conditional expectation is illustrated in detail in the context of an expanded treatment of martingales, the Markov property, and the strong Markov property. Weak convergence of probabilities on metric spaces and Brownian motion are two topics to highlight. A selection of large deviation and/or concentration inequalities ranging from those of Chebyshev, Cramer–Chernoff, Bahadur–Rao, to Hoeffding have been added, with illustrative comparisons of thei...

  7. Ignition probabilities for Compact Ignition Tokamak designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stotler, D.P.; Goldston, R.J.

    1989-09-01

    A global power balance code employing Monte Carlo techniques had been developed to study the ''probability of ignition'' and has been applied to several different configurations of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT). Probability distributions for the critical physics parameters in the code were estimated using existing experimental data. This included a statistical evaluation of the uncertainty in extrapolating the energy confinement time. A substantial probability of ignition is predicted for CIT if peaked density profiles can be achieved or if one of the two higher plasma current configurations is employed. In other cases, values of the energy multiplication factor Q of order 10 are generally obtained. The Ignitor-U and ARIES designs are also examined briefly. Comparisons of our empirically based confinement assumptions with two theory-based transport models yield conflicting results. 41 refs., 11 figs

  8. Independent events in elementary probability theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-07-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): quote specific-use="indent"> If the n events E 1, E 2, … , E n are jointly independent then any two events A and B built in finitely many steps from two disjoint subsets of E 1, E 2, … , E n are also independent. The operations 'union', 'intersection' and 'complementation' are permitted only when forming the events A and B. quote>Here we examine this statement from the point of view of elementary probability theory. The approach described here is accessible also to users of probability theory and is believed to be novel.

  9. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Briggs, William

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

  11. Python for probability, statistics, and machine learning

    CERN Document Server

    Unpingco, José

    2016-01-01

    This book covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. The entire text, including all the figures and numerical results, is reproducible using the Python codes and their associated Jupyter/IPython notebooks, which are provided as supplementary downloads. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, and Scikit-learn are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowl...

  12. EARLY HISTORY OF GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY AND STEREOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Hykšová

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides an account of the history of geometric probability and stereology from the time of Newton to the early 20th century. It depicts the development of two parallel ways: on one hand, the theory of geometric probability was formed with minor attention paid to other applications than those concerning spatial chance games. On the other hand, practical rules of the estimation of area or volume fraction and other characteristics, easily deducible from geometric probability theory, were proposed without the knowledge of this branch. A special attention is paid to the paper of J.-É. Barbier published in 1860, which contained the fundamental stereological formulas, but remained almost unnoticed both by mathematicians and practicians.

  13. Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Z.

    1985-01-01

    The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)

  14. Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2014-01-01

    the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

  15. Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Calin, Ovidiu

    2014-01-01

    This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

  16. Fixation probability on clique-based graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jeong-Ok; Yu, Unjong

    2018-02-01

    The fixation probability of a mutant in the evolutionary dynamics of Moran process is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method on a few families of clique-based graphs. It is shown that the complete suppression of fixation can be realized with the generalized clique-wheel graph in the limit of small wheel-clique ratio and infinite size. The family of clique-star is an amplifier, and clique-arms graph changes from amplifier to suppressor as the fitness of the mutant increases. We demonstrate that the overall structure of a graph can be more important to determine the fixation probability than the degree or the heat heterogeneity. The dependence of the fixation probability on the position of the first mutant is discussed.

  17. A method for the calculation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldarola, L.

    1976-01-01

    A method is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the cumulative failure probability distribution of complex repairable systems. The method is based on a set of integral equations each one referring to a specific minimal cut set of the system. Each integral equation links the unavailability of a minimal cut set to its failure probability density distribution and to the probability that the minimal cut set is down at the time t under the condition that it was down at time t'(t'<=t). The limitations for the applicability of the method are also discussed. It has been concluded that the method is applicable if the process describing the failure of a minimal cut set is a 'delayed semi-regenerative process'. (Auth.)

  18. Duelling idiots and other probability puzzlers

    CERN Document Server

    Nahin, Paul J

    2002-01-01

    What are your chances of dying on your next flight, being called for jury duty, or winning the lottery? We all encounter probability problems in our everyday lives. In this collection of twenty-one puzzles, Paul Nahin challenges us to think creatively about the laws of probability as they apply in playful, sometimes deceptive, ways to a fascinating array of speculative situations. Games of Russian roulette, problems involving the accumulation of insects on flypaper, and strategies for determining the odds of the underdog winning the World Series all reveal intriguing dimensions to the worki

  19. Proposal for Modified Damage Probability Distribution Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis

    1996-01-01

    Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub-committee on st......Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub...

  20. Probability densities and Lévy densities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler

    For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated.......For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated....

  1. Probabilities from entanglement, Born's rule from envariance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zurek, W.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: I shall discuss consequences of envariance (environment - assisted invariance) symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum states. I shall focus on the implications of envariance for the understanding of the origins and nature of ignorance, and, hence, for the origin of probabilities in physics. While the derivation of the Born's rule for probabilities (pk IykI2) is the principal accomplishment of this research, I shall explore the possibility that several other symptoms of the quantum - classical transition that are a consequence of decoherence can be justified directly by envariance -- i.e., without invoking Born's rule. (author)

  2. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  3. Fifty challenging problems in probability with solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Mosteller, Frederick

    1987-01-01

    Can you solve the problem of ""The Unfair Subway""? Marvin gets off work at random times between 3 and 5 p.m. His mother lives uptown, his girlfriend downtown. He takes the first subway that comes in either direction and eats dinner with the one he is delivered to. His mother complains that he never comes to see her, but he says she has a 50-50 chance. He has had dinner with her twice in the last 20 working days. Explain. Marvin's adventures in probability are one of the fifty intriguing puzzles that illustrate both elementary ad advanced aspects of probability, each problem designed to chall

  4. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

  5. Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David

    1997-01-01

    Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462

  6. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. © 2015 The Author(s).

  7. Lady luck the theory of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Weaver, Warren

    1982-01-01

    ""Should I take my umbrella?"" ""Should I buy insurance?"" ""Which horse should I bet on?"" Every day ― in business, in love affairs, in forecasting the weather or the stock market questions arise which cannot be answered by a simple ""yes"" or ""no."" Many of these questions involve probability. Probabilistic thinking is as crucially important in ordinary affairs as it is in the most abstruse realms of science. This book is the best nontechnical introduction to probability ever written. Its author, the late Dr. Warren Weaver, was a professor of mathematics, active in the Rockefeller and Sloa

  8. Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, H.W.

    1984-01-01

    A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt--factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease

  9. Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, N.

    2017-12-01

    The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source

  10. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-01-01

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

  11. A Bernstein-Von Mises Theorem for discrete probability distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Boucheron, S.; Gassiat, E.

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function θ0 on ℕ∖{0} and a sequence of truncation levels (kn)n satisfying kn3≤ninf i≤knθ0(i). Let θ̂ denote the maximum likelihood estimate of (θ0(i))i≤kn and let Δn(θ0) denote the kn-dimensional vector which i-th coordinate is defined by $\\sqrt{n}(\\hat{\\theta}_{n}(i)-\\theta_{0}(i))$ for 1≤i≤kn. We check that under mild ...

  12. Hitting probabilities for nonlinear systems of stochastic waves

    CERN Document Server

    Dalang, Robert C

    2015-01-01

    The authors consider a d-dimensional random field u = \\{u(t,x)\\} that solves a non-linear system of stochastic wave equations in spatial dimensions k \\in \\{1,2,3\\}, driven by a spatially homogeneous Gaussian noise that is white in time. They mainly consider the case where the spatial covariance is given by a Riesz kernel with exponent \\beta. Using Malliavin calculus, they establish upper and lower bounds on the probabilities that the random field visits a deterministic subset of \\mathbb{R}^d, in terms, respectively, of Hausdorff measure and Newtonian capacity of this set. The dimension that ap

  13. Elements of a function analytic approach to probability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghanem, Roger Georges (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA); Red-Horse, John Robert

    2008-02-01

    We first provide a detailed motivation for using probability theory as a mathematical context in which to analyze engineering and scientific systems that possess uncertainties. We then present introductory notes on the function analytic approach to probabilistic analysis, emphasizing the connections to various classical deterministic mathematical analysis elements. Lastly, we describe how to use the approach as a means to augment deterministic analysis methods in a particular Hilbert space context, and thus enable a rigorous framework for commingling deterministic and probabilistic analysis tools in an application setting.

  14. Probability of climatic change. Identification of key questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fransen, W.

    1995-01-01

    Addressing the question what the probability is of an anthropogenically induced change in the climate, leads to a number of other, underlying questions. These questions, which deal with the characteristics of climate, of climatic change, and of probabilistic statements on climatic change, should be addressed first. The long-term objective of the underlying study, i.e. a quantitative assessment of the risks and opportunities of the predicted climatic change, sets the context against which of those questions should be answered. In addition, this context induces extra questions, i.e. about the characteristics of risk

  15. Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting (WINDP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-04-01

    llq. h. ,c ilrac (t’ small probabilities (below 107c) is limited II(t’h, numb(r o!, significant digits given: therefore 1t( huld lU r~ruidvd as being...APPLIED SCI. CORP. ENGLAMD ;7MOS. SCIENCES OEPT., LIBRARY ATTN: LIBARY , SUITE 500 400 WASHINGTON AVE. 6811 KENILWORTH AVE. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM

  16. The Probability Heuristics Model of Syllogistic Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

    1999-01-01

    Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

  17. Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

  18. Critique of `Elements of Quantum Probability'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gill, R.D.

    1998-01-01

    We analyse the thesis of Kummerer and Maassen that classical probability is unable to model the the stochastic nature of the Aspect experiment in which violation of Bells inequality was experimentally demonstrated According to these authors the experiment shows the need to introduce the extension

  19. Independent Events in Elementary Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-01-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E[subscript 1],…

  20. Probable Unusual Transmission of Zika Virus

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast discusses a study about the probable unusual transmission of Zika Virus Infection from a scientist to his wife, published in the May 2011 issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases. Dr. Brian Foy, Associate Professor at Colorado State University, shares details of this event.

  1. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  2. Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

    2012-01-01

    In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

  3. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    random sampling allows data to be modelled with the help of probability ... g based on different trials to get an estimate of the experimental error. ... research interests lie in the .... if e is indeed the true value of the proportion of defectives in the.

  4. Virus isolation: Specimen type and probable transmission

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Virus isolation: Specimen type and probable transmission. Over 500 CHIK virus isolations were made. 4 from male Ae. Aegypti (?TOT). 6 from CSF (neurological involvement). 1 from a 4-day old child (transplacental transmission.

  5. Estimating the Probability of Negative Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam; Hahn, Ulrike

    2009-01-01

    How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…

  6. Concurrency meets probability: theory and practice (abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.

    Treating random phenomena in concurrency theory has a long tradition. Petri nets [18, 10] and process algebras [14] have been extended with probabilities. The same applies to behavioural semantics such as strong and weak (bi)simulation [1], and testing pre-orders [5]. Beautiful connections between

  7. Confusion between Odds and Probability, a Pandemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulton, Lawrence V.; Mendez, Francis A.; Bastian, Nathaniel D.; Musal, R. Muzaffer

    2012-01-01

    This manuscript discusses the common confusion between the terms probability and odds. To emphasize the importance and responsibility of being meticulous in the dissemination of information and knowledge, this manuscript reveals five cases of sources of inaccurate statistical language imbedded in the dissemination of information to the general…

  8. Probability in Action: The Red Traffic Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, John A.

    2007-01-01

    Emphasis on problem solving in mathematics has gained considerable attention in recent years. While statistics teaching has always been problem driven, the same cannot be said for the teaching of probability where discrete examples involving coins and playing cards are often the norm. This article describes an application of simple probability…

  9. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Teacher Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The modules also introduce students to real world math concepts and problems that property and casualty actuaries come across in their work. They are designed to be used by teachers and…

  10. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Student Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

  11. Conditional probability on MV-algebras

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kroupa, Tomáš

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 149, č. 2 (2005), s. 369-381 ISSN 0165-0114 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075302 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional probability * tribe * MV-algebra Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.039, year: 2005

  12. Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Robert J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

  13. Probability from a Socio-Cultural Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sashi

    2016-01-01

    There exists considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions about probability; less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. Grounded in an analysis of the literature, this article offers a lesson sequence for developing students' probabilistic understanding. In particular, a…

  14. Pade approximant calculations for neutron escape probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Wakil, S.A.; Saad, E.A.; Hendi, A.A.

    1984-07-01

    The neutron escape probability from a non-multiplying slab containing internal source is defined in terms of a functional relation for the scattering function for the diffuse reflection problem. The Pade approximant technique is used to get numerical results which compare with exact results. (author)

  15. On a paradox of probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)

  16. Escape probabilities for fluorescent x-rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dance, D.R.; Day, G.J.

    1985-01-01

    Computation of the energy absorption efficiency of an x-ray photon detector involves consideration of the histories of the secondary particles produced in any initial or secondary interaction which may occur within the detector. In particular, the K or higher shell fluorescent x-rays which may be emitted following a photoelectric interaction can carry away a large fraction of the energy of the incident photon, especially if this energy is just above an absorption edge. The effects of such photons cannot be ignored and a correction term, depending upon the probability that the fluorescent x-rays will escape from the detector, must be applied to the energy absorption efficiency. For detectors such as x-ray intensifying screens, it has been usual to calculate this probability by numerical integration. In this note analytic expressions are derived for the escape probability of fluorescent photons from planar detectors in terms of exponential integral functions. Rational approximations for these functions are readily available and these analytic expressions therefore facilitate the computation of photon absorption efficiencies. A table is presented which should obviate the need for calculating the escape probability for most cases of interest. (author)

  17. Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

    2017-01-01

    In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

  18. Applied probability models with optimization applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon M

    1992-01-01

    Concise advanced-level introduction to stochastic processes that frequently arise in applied probability. Largely self-contained text covers Poisson process, renewal theory, Markov chains, inventory theory, Brownian motion and continuous time optimization models, much more. Problems and references at chapter ends. ""Excellent introduction."" - Journal of the American Statistical Association. Bibliography. 1970 edition.

  19. Quantum probability and conceptual combination in conjunctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampton, James A

    2013-06-01

    I consider the general problem of category conjunctions in the light of Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B)'s quantum probability (QP) account of the conjunction fallacy. I argue that their account as presented cannot capture the "guppy effect" - the case in which a class is a better member of a conjunction A^B than it is of either A or B alone.

  20. Pattern formation, logistics, and maximum path probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkaldy, J. S.

    1985-05-01

    The concept of pattern formation, which to current researchers is a synonym for self-organization, carries the connotation of deductive logic together with the process of spontaneous inference. Defining a pattern as an equivalence relation on a set of thermodynamic objects, we establish that a large class of irreversible pattern-forming systems, evolving along idealized quasisteady paths, approaches the stable steady state as a mapping upon the formal deductive imperatives of a propositional function calculus. In the preamble the classical reversible thermodynamics of composite systems is analyzed as an externally manipulated system of space partitioning and classification based on ideal enclosures and diaphragms. The diaphragms have discrete classification capabilities which are designated in relation to conserved quantities by descriptors such as impervious, diathermal, and adiabatic. Differentiability in the continuum thermodynamic calculus is invoked as equivalent to analyticity and consistency in the underlying class or sentential calculus. The seat of inference, however, rests with the thermodynamicist. In the transition to an irreversible pattern-forming system the defined nature of the composite reservoirs remains, but a given diaphragm is replaced by a pattern-forming system which by its nature is a spontaneously evolving volume partitioner and classifier of invariants. The seat of volition or inference for the classification system is thus transferred from the experimenter or theoretician to the diaphragm, and with it the full deductive facility. The equivalence relations or partitions associated with the emerging patterns may thus be associated with theorems of the natural pattern-forming calculus. The entropy function, together with its derivatives, is the vehicle which relates the logistics of reservoirs and diaphragms to the analog logistics of the continuum. Maximum path probability or second-order differentiability of the entropy in isolation are

  1. Compositional models for credal sets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vejnarová, Jiřina

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 90, č. 1 (2017), s. 359-373 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-12010S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Imprecise probabilities * Credal sets * Multidimensional models * Conditional independence Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 2.845, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/MTR/vejnarova-0483288.pdf

  2. Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    2014-09-01

    Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward

  3. Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates

  4. Establishment probability in newly founded populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusset Markus

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population’s state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the “Wissel plot”, where –ln(1 – P0(t is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P0t=1–c1e–ω1t, which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P0(t, to two constants: c1 describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω1 describes the population’s probability of extinction per short time interval once established. Results For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus. A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated linear parts of the “Wissel plot” with the y-axis, which is –ln(c1, is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. Conclusions The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population’s viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

  5. The probability and severity of decompression sickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

    2017-01-01

    Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

  6. Hydra-Ring: a computational framework to combine failure probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Roscoe, Kathryn; IJmker, Janneke; Mens, Marjolein; Bouwer, Laurens

    2013-04-01

    This presentation discusses the development of a new computational framework for the safety assessment of flood defence systems: Hydra-Ring. Hydra-Ring computes the failure probability of a flood defence system, which is composed of a number of elements (e.g., dike segments, dune segments or hydraulic structures), taking all relevant uncertainties explicitly into account. This is a major step forward in comparison with the current Dutch practice in which the safety assessment is done separately per individual flood defence section. The main advantage of the new approach is that it will result in a more balanced prioratization of required mitigating measures ('more value for money'). Failure of the flood defence system occurs if any element within the system fails. Hydra-Ring thus computes and combines failure probabilities of the following elements: - Failure mechanisms: A flood defence system can fail due to different failure mechanisms. - Time periods: failure probabilities are first computed for relatively small time scales (assessment of flood defense systems, Hydra-Ring can also be used to derive fragility curves, to asses the efficiency of flood mitigating measures, and to quantify the impact of climate change and land subsidence on flood risk. Hydra-Ring is being developed in the context of the Dutch situation. However, the computational concept is generic and the model is set up in such a way that it can be applied to other areas as well. The presentation will focus on the model concept and probabilistic computation techniques.

  7. Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

    2017-04-01

    Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

  8. Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

    2017-04-01

    Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

  9. Closed Form Aliasing Probability For Q-ary Symmetric Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geetani Edirisooriya

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available In Built-In Self-Test (BIST techniques, test data reduction can be achieved using Linear Feedback Shift Registers (LFSRs. A faulty circuit may escape detection due to loss of information inherent to data compaction schemes. This is referred to as aliasing. The probability of aliasing in Multiple-Input Shift-Registers (MISRs has been studied under various bit error models. By modeling the signature analyzer as a Markov process we show that the closed form expression derived for aliasing probability previously, for MISRs with primitive polynomials under q-ary symmetric error model holds for all MISRs irrespective of their feedback polynomials and for group cellular automata signature analyzers as well. If the erroneous behaviour of a circuit can be modelled with q-ary symmetric errors, then the test circuit complexity and propagation delay associated with the signature analyzer can be minimized by using a set of m single bit LFSRs without increasing the probability of aliasing.

  10. Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

  11. Maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in radiation therapy treatment planning under setup uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Hårdemark, Björn; Forsgren, Anders

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This paper introduces a method that maximizes the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in intensity-modulated radiation therapy treatments subject to setup uncertainty. Methods: The authors perform robust optimization in which the clinical goals are constrained to be satisfied whenever the setup error falls within an uncertainty set. The shape of the uncertainty set is included as a variable in the optimization. The goal of the optimization is to modify the shape of the uncertainty set in order to maximize the probability that the setup error will fall within the modified set. Because the constraints enforce the clinical goals to be satisfied under all setup errors within the uncertainty set, this is equivalent to maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This type of robust optimization is studied with respect to photon and proton therapy applied to a prostate case and compared to robust optimization using an a priori defined uncertainty set. Results: Slight reductions of the uncertainty sets resulted in plans that satisfied a larger number of clinical goals than optimization with respect to a priori defined uncertainty sets, both within the reduced uncertainty sets and within the a priori, nonreduced, uncertainty sets. For the prostate case, the plans taking reduced uncertainty sets into account satisfied 1.4 (photons) and 1.5 (protons) times as many clinical goals over the scenarios as the method taking a priori uncertainty sets into account. Conclusions: Reducing the uncertainty sets enabled the optimization to find better solutions with respect to the errors within the reduced as well as the nonreduced uncertainty sets and thereby achieve higher probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This shows that asking for a little less in the optimization sometimes leads to better overall plan quality

  12. An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

  13. A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

  14. Probability Density Estimation Using Neural Networks in Monte Carlo Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Jin Young; Song, Jae Seung; Kim, Chang Hyo

    2008-01-01

    The Monte Carlo neutronics analysis requires the capability for a tally distribution estimation like an axial power distribution or a flux gradient in a fuel rod, etc. This problem can be regarded as a probability density function estimation from an observation set. We apply the neural network based density estimation method to an observation and sampling weight set produced by the Monte Carlo calculations. The neural network method is compared with the histogram and the functional expansion tally method for estimating a non-smooth density, a fission source distribution, and an absorption rate's gradient in a burnable absorber rod. The application results shows that the neural network method can approximate a tally distribution quite well. (authors)

  15. Constraint-based Student Modelling in Probability Story Problems with Scaffolding Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabila Khodeir

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Constraint-based student modelling (CBM is an important technique employed in intelligent tutoring systems to model student knowledge to provide relevant assistance. This paper introduces the Math Story Problem Tutor (MAST, a Web-based intelligent tutoring system for probability story problems, which is able to generate problems of different contexts, types and difficulty levels for self-paced learning. Constraints in MAST are specified at a low-level of granularity to allow fine-grained diagnosis of the student error. Furthermore, MAST extends CBM to address errors due to misunderstanding of the narrative story. It can locate and highlight keywords that may have been overlooked or misunderstood leading to an error. This is achieved by utilizing the role of sentences and keywords that are defined through the Natural Language Generation (NLG methods deployed in the story problem generation. MAST also integrates CBM with scaffolding questions and feedback to provide various forms of help and guidance to the student. This allows the student to discover and correct any errors in his/her solution. MAST has been preliminary evaluated empirically and the results show the potential effectiveness in tutoring students with a decrease in the percentage of violated constraints along the learning curve. Additionally, there is a significant improvement in the results of the post–test exam in comparison to the pre-test exam of the students using MAST in comparison to those relying on the textbook

  16. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  17. Are RA patients from a non-endemic HCV population screened for HCV? A cross-sectional analysis of three different settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra Michelle; Erhard-Ramírez, Alejandro; Garza-Elizondo, Mario Alberto; Esquivel-Valerio, Jorge Antonio; Abud-Mendoza, Carlos; Martínez-Martínez, Marco Ulises; Vega-Morales, David; Arana-Guajardo, Ana

    In Mexico, other risk factors are associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV): prior heroin users, living alone, widower, and northern region residence. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients are considered immunosuppressed and HCV testing is recommended before treatment. The aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of HCV testing in RA patients in three different medical care settings in a non-endemic area. A retrospective observational study was performed using medical records from 960 RA patients describing the indications for HCV testing. The test was performed in 28.6% and the HCV overall frequency was 0.36%. Population characteristics were not associated with an increased risk of HCV infection; therefore, anti-HCV positivity was low. The main reason for testing was before starting biological agents. Due to the low pre-test probability, testing for HCV infection should be personalized; i.e., according to disease prevalence in a particular geographical location and the individual risk factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  18. Generic Degraded Congiguration Probability Analysis for DOE Codisposal Waste Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.F.A. Deng; M. Saglam; L.J. Gratton

    2001-05-23

    In accordance with the technical work plan, ''Technical Work Plan For: Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel Work Packages'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c), this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is developed for the purpose of screening out degraded configurations for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) types. It performs the degraded configuration parameter and probability evaluations of the overall methodology specified in the ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2000, Section 3) to qualifying configurations. Degradation analyses are performed to assess realizable parameter ranges and physical regimes for configurations. Probability calculations are then performed for configurations characterized by k{sub eff} in excess of the Critical Limit (CL). The scope of this document is to develop a generic set of screening criteria or models to screen out degraded configurations having potential for exceeding a criticality limit. The developed screening criteria include arguments based on physical/chemical processes and probability calculations and apply to DOE SNF types when codisposed with the high-level waste (HLW) glass inside a waste package. The degradation takes place inside the waste package and is long after repository licensing has expired. The emphasis of this AMR is on degraded configuration screening and the probability analysis is one of the approaches used for screening. The intended use of the model is to apply the developed screening criteria to each DOE SNF type following the completion of the degraded mode criticality analysis internal to the waste package.

  19. Joint survival probability via truncated invariant copula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong-Hoon; Ma, Yong-Ki; Park, Chan Yeol

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We have studied an issue of dependence structure between default intensities. • We use a multivariate shot noise intensity process, where jumps occur simultaneously and their sizes are correlated. • We obtain the joint survival probability of the integrated intensities by using a copula. • We apply our theoretical result to pricing basket default swap spread. - Abstract: Given an intensity-based credit risk model, this paper studies dependence structure between default intensities. To model this structure, we use a multivariate shot noise intensity process, where jumps occur simultaneously and their sizes are correlated. Through very lengthy algebra, we obtain explicitly the joint survival probability of the integrated intensities by using the truncated invariant Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern copula with exponential marginal distributions. We also apply our theoretical result to pricing basket default swap spreads. This result can provide a useful guide for credit risk management.

  20. Probabilities, causes and propensities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Suárez, Mauricio

    2010-01-01

    This volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics - particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. This book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.

  1. Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Siegfried

    2000-01-01

    Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

  2. Measurement of the resonance escape probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthony, J.P.; Bacher, P.; Lheureux, L.; Moreau, J.; Schmitt, A.P.

    1957-01-01

    The average cadmium ratio in natural uranium rods has been measured, using equal diameter natural uranium disks. These values correlated with independent measurements of the lattice buckling, enabled us to calculate values of the resonance escape probability for the G1 reactor with one or the other of two definitions. Measurements were performed on 26 mm and 32 mm rods, giving the following values for the resonance escape probability p: 0.8976 ± 0.005 and 0.912 ± 0.006 (d. 26 mm), 0.8627 ± 0.009 and 0.884 ± 0.01 (d. 32 mm). The influence of either definition on the lattice parameters is discussed, leading to values of the effective integral. Similar experiments have been performed with thorium rods. (author) [fr

  3. Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

  4. Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

  5. Bayesian Prior Probability Distributions for Internal Dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Little, T.T.; Martz, H.F.; Schillaci, M.E

    2001-07-01

    The problem of choosing a prior distribution for the Bayesian interpretation of measurements (specifically internal dosimetry measurements) is considered using a theoretical analysis and by examining historical tritium and plutonium urine bioassay data from Los Alamos. Two models for the prior probability distribution are proposed: (1) the log-normal distribution, when there is some additional information to determine the scale of the true result, and (2) the 'alpha' distribution (a simplified variant of the gamma distribution) when there is not. These models have been incorporated into version 3 of the Bayesian internal dosimetric code in use at Los Alamos (downloadable from our web site). Plutonium internal dosimetry at Los Alamos is now being done using prior probability distribution parameters determined self-consistently from population averages of Los Alamos data. (author)

  6. Probability and statistics for particle physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mana, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    This book comprehensively presents the basic concepts of probability and Bayesian inference with sufficient generality to make them applicable to current problems in scientific research. The first chapter provides the fundamentals of probability theory that are essential for the analysis of random phenomena. The second chapter includes a full and pragmatic review of the Bayesian methods that constitute a natural and coherent framework with enough freedom to analyze all the information available from experimental data in a conceptually simple manner. The third chapter presents the basic Monte Carlo techniques used in scientific research, allowing a large variety of problems to be handled difficult to tackle by other procedures. The author also introduces a basic algorithm, which enables readers to simulate samples from simple distribution, and describes useful cases for researchers in particle physics.The final chapter is devoted to the basic ideas of Information Theory, which are important in the Bayesian me...

  7. Imaging multipole gravity anomaly sources by 3D probability tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alaia, Raffaele; Patella, Domenico; Mauriello, Paolo

    2009-01-01

    We present a generalized theory of the probability tomography applied to the gravity method, assuming that any Bouguer anomaly data set can be caused by a discrete number of monopoles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These elementary sources are used to characterize, in an as detailed as possible way and without any a priori assumption, the shape and position of the most probable minimum structure of the gravity sources compatible with the observed data set, by picking out the location of their centres and peculiar points of their boundaries related to faces, edges and vertices. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach, compared with a previous formulation that used only monopoles and dipoles. A field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging the geometry of the minimum gravity structure down to 8 km of depth bsl

  8. Probability Weighting as Evolutionary Second-best

    OpenAIRE

    Herold, Florian; Netzer, Nick

    2011-01-01

    The economic concept of the second-best involves the idea that multiple simultaneous deviations from a hypothetical first-best optimum may be optimal once the first-best itself can no longer be achieved, since one distortion may partially compensate for another. Within an evolutionary framework, we translate this concept to behavior under uncertainty. We argue that the two main components of prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function, are complements in the sec...

  9. Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopec, S.

    1994-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

  10. Probability and Statistics in Aerospace Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinfurth, M. H.; Howell, L. W.

    1998-01-01

    This monograph was prepared to give the practicing engineer a clear understanding of probability and statistics with special consideration to problems frequently encountered in aerospace engineering. It is conceived to be both a desktop reference and a refresher for aerospace engineers in government and industry. It could also be used as a supplement to standard texts for in-house training courses on the subject.

  11. Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayanan, R.S.

    1991-10-01

    We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

  12. Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Ouassou, Idir; Rachdi, Mustapha

    2015-01-01

    This volume, which highlights recent advances in statistical methodology and applications, is divided into two main parts. The first part presents theoretical results on estimation techniques in functional statistics, while the second examines three key areas of application: estimation problems in queuing theory, an application in signal processing, and the copula approach to epidemiologic modelling. The book’s peer-reviewed contributions are based on papers originally presented at the Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics held in December 2013.

  13. Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lupia, S.; Giovannini, A.; Ugoccioni, R.

    1995-01-01

    Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

  14. Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lupia, S. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Giovannini, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Ugoccioni, R. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

    1995-03-01

    Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

  15. Introduction to tensorial resistivity probability tomography

    OpenAIRE

    Mauriello, Paolo; Patella, Domenico

    2005-01-01

    The probability tomography approach developed for the scalar resistivity method is here extended to the 2D tensorial apparent resistivity acquisition mode. The rotational invariant derived from the trace of the apparent resistivity tensor is considered, since it gives on the datum plane anomalies confined above the buried objects. Firstly, a departure function is introduced as the difference between the tensorial invariant measured over the real structure and that computed for a reference uni...

  16. Interaction probability value calculi for some scintillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Torano Martinez, E.; Grau Malonda, A.

    1989-01-01

    Interaction probabilities for 17 gamma-ray energies between 1 and 1.000 KeV have been computed and tabulated. The tables may be applied to the case of cylindrical vials with radius 1,25 cm and volumes 5, 10 and 15 ml. Toluene, Toluene/Alcohol, Dioxane-Naftalen, PCS, INSTAGEL and HISAFE II scintillators are considered. Graphical results for 10 ml are also given. (Author) 11 refs

  17. Probability of collective excited state decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manykin, Eh.A.; Ozhovan, M.I.; Poluehktov, P.P.

    1987-01-01

    Decay mechanisms of condensed excited state formed of highly excited (Rydberg) atoms are considered, i.e. stability of so-called Rydberg substance is analyzed. It is shown that Auger recombination and radiation transitions are the basic processes. The corresponding probabilities are calculated and compared. It is ascertained that the ''Rydberg substance'' possesses macroscopic lifetime (several seconds) and in a sense it is metastable

  18. SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, John

    2012-01-01

    The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

  19. On the universality of knot probability ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada); Rechnitzer, A, E-mail: rensburg@yorku.ca, E-mail: andrewr@math.ubc.ca [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, 1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 (Canada)

    2011-04-22

    Let p{sub n} denote the number of self-avoiding polygons of length n on a regular three-dimensional lattice, and let p{sub n}(K) be the number which have knot type K. The probability that a random polygon of length n has knot type K is p{sub n}(K)/p{sub n} and is known to decay exponentially with length (Sumners and Whittington 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 21 1689-94, Pippenger 1989 Discrete Appl. Math. 25 273-8). Little is known rigorously about the asymptotics of p{sub n}(K), but there is substantial numerical evidence. It is believed that the entropic exponent, {alpha}, is universal, while the exponential growth rate is independent of the knot type but varies with the lattice. The amplitude, C{sub K}, depends on both the lattice and the knot type. The above asymptotic form implies that the relative probability of a random polygon of length n having prime knot type K over prime knot type L. In the thermodynamic limit this probability ratio becomes an amplitude ratio; it should be universal and depend only on the knot types K and L. In this communication we examine the universality of these probability ratios for polygons in the simple cubic, face-centred cubic and body-centred cubic lattices. Our results support the hypothesis that these are universal quantities. For example, we estimate that a long random polygon is approximately 28 times more likely to be a trefoil than be a figure-eight, independent of the underlying lattice, giving an estimate of the intrinsic entropy associated with knot types in closed curves. (fast track communication)

  20. PSA, subjective probability and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    PSA is the natural way to making decisions in face of uncertainty relative to potentially dangerous plants; subjective probability, subjective utility and Bayes statistics are the ideal tools for carrying out a PSA. This paper reports that in order to support this statement the various stages of the PSA procedure are examined in detail and step by step the superiority of Bayes techniques with respect to sampling theory machinery is proven

  1. Probability and statistics in particle physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frodesen, A.G.; Skjeggestad, O.

    1979-01-01

    Probability theory is entered into at an elementary level and given a simple and detailed exposition. The material on statistics has been organised with an eye to the experimental physicist's practical need, which is likely to be statistical methods for estimation or decision-making. The book is intended for graduate students and research workers in experimental high energy and elementary particle physics, and numerous examples from these fields are presented. (JIW)

  2. Probable Unusual Transmission of Zika Virus

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-05-23

    This podcast discusses a study about the probable unusual transmission of Zika Virus Infection from a scientist to his wife, published in the May 2011 issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases. Dr. Brian Foy, Associate Professor at Colorado State University, shares details of this event.  Created: 5/23/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 5/25/2011.

  3. Heart sounds analysis using probability assessment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plešinger, Filip; Viščor, Ivo; Halámek, Josef; Jurčo, Juraj; Jurák, Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 8 (2017), s. 1685-1700 ISSN 0967-3334 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP102/12/2034; GA MŠk(CZ) LO1212; GA MŠk ED0017/01/01 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : heart sounds * FFT * machine learning * signal averaging * probability assessment Subject RIV: FS - Medical Facilities ; Equipment OBOR OECD: Medical engineering Impact factor: 2.058, year: 2016

  4. Grammaticality, Acceptability, and Probability: A Probabilistic View of Linguistic Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Jey Han; Clark, Alexander; Lappin, Shalom

    2017-07-01

    The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability. The acceptability of a sentence is not the same as the likelihood of its occurrence, which is, in part, determined by factors like sentence length and lexical frequency. In this paper, we present the results of a set of large-scale experiments using crowd-sourced acceptability judgments that demonstrate gradience to be a pervasive feature in acceptability judgments. We then show how one can predict acceptability judgments on the basis of probability by augmenting probabilistic language models with an acceptability measure. This is a function that normalizes probability values to eliminate the confounding factors of length and lexical frequency. We describe a sequence of modeling experiments with unsupervised language models drawn from state-of-the-art machine learning methods in natural language processing. Several of these models achieve very encouraging levels of accuracy in the acceptability prediction task, as measured by the correlation between the acceptability measure scores and mean human acceptability values. We consider the relevance of these results to the debate on the nature of grammatical competence, and we argue that they support the view that linguistic knowledge can be intrinsically probabilistic. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  5. Classical probabilities for Majorana and Weyl spinors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wetterich, C.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Map of classical statistical Ising model to fermionic quantum field theory. → Lattice-regularized real Grassmann functional integral for single Weyl spinor. → Emerging complex structure characteristic for quantum physics. → A classical statistical ensemble describes a quantum theory. - Abstract: We construct a map between the quantum field theory of free Weyl or Majorana fermions and the probability distribution of a classical statistical ensemble for Ising spins or discrete bits. More precisely, a Grassmann functional integral based on a real Grassmann algebra specifies the time evolution of the real wave function q τ (t) for the Ising states τ. The time dependent probability distribution of a generalized Ising model obtains as p τ (t)=q τ 2 (t). The functional integral employs a lattice regularization for single Weyl or Majorana spinors. We further introduce the complex structure characteristic for quantum mechanics. Probability distributions of the Ising model which correspond to one or many propagating fermions are discussed explicitly. Expectation values of observables can be computed equivalently in the classical statistical Ising model or in the quantum field theory for fermions.

  6. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  7. Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro

    2005-03-01

    Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)

  8. Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nahum, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs

  9. Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics

    1996-08-01

    The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.

  10. Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, David A; Singh, Parampreet

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler–DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent-histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce versus a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite ‘past’ or ‘future’ scalar ‘time’, in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models. (paper)

  11. Probability and containment of turbine missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, G.C.K.

    1976-01-01

    With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

  12. Pipe failure probability - the Thomas paper revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.O.Y.

    2000-01-01

    Almost twenty years ago, in Volume 2 of Reliability Engineering (the predecessor of Reliability Engineering and System Safety), a paper by H. M. Thomas of Rolls Royce and Associates Ltd. presented a generalized approach to the estimation of piping and vessel failure probability. The 'Thomas-approach' used insights from actual failure statistics to calculate the probability of leakage and conditional probability of rupture given leakage. It was intended for practitioners without access to data on the service experience with piping and piping system components. This article revisits the Thomas paper by drawing on insights from development of a new database on piping failures in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide (SKI-PIPE). Partially sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), the R and D leading up to this note was performed during 1994-1999. Motivated by data requirements of reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the new database supports statistical analysis of piping failure data. Against the background of this database development program, the article reviews the applicability of the 'Thomas approach' in applied risk and reliability analysis. It addresses the question whether a new and expanded database on the service experience with piping systems would alter the original piping reliability correlation as suggested by H. M. Thomas

  13. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  14. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  15. Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Vasilev

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

  16. School and conference on probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawler, G.F.

    2004-01-01

    This volume includes expanded lecture notes from the School and Conference in Probability Theory held at ICTP in May, 2001. Probability theory is a very large area, too large for a single school and conference. The organizers, G. Lawler, C. Newman, and S. Varadhan chose to focus on a number of active research areas that have their roots in statistical physics. The pervasive theme in these lectures is trying to find the large time or large space behaviour of models defined on discrete lattices. Usually the definition of the model is relatively simple: either assigning a particular weight to each possible configuration (equilibrium statistical mechanics) or specifying the rules under which the system evolves (nonequilibrium statistical mechanics). Interacting particle systems is the area of probability that studies the evolution of particles (either finite or infinite in number) under random motions. The evolution of particles depends on the positions of the other particles; often one assumes that it depends only on the particles that are close to the particular particle. Thomas Liggett's lectures give an introduction to this very large area. Claudio Landim's follows up by discussing hydrodynamic limits of particle systems. The goal of this area is to describe the long time, large system size dynamics in terms of partial differential equations. The area of random media is concerned with the properties of materials or environments that are not homogeneous. Percolation theory studies one of the simplest stated models for impurities - taking a lattice and removing some of the vertices or bonds. Luiz Renato G. Fontes and Vladas Sidoravicius give a detailed introduction to this area. Random walk in random environment combines two sources of randomness - a particle performing stochastic motion in which the transition probabilities depend on position and have been chosen from some probability distribution. Alain-Sol Sznitman gives a survey of recent developments in this

  17. Considerations and Algorithms for Compression of Sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Jesper

    We consider compression of unordered sets of distinct elements. After a discus- sion of the general problem, we focus on compressing sets of fixed-length bitstrings in the presence of statistical information. We survey techniques from previous work, suggesting some adjustments, and propose a novel...... compression algorithm that allows transparent incorporation of various estimates for probability distribution. Our experimental results allow the conclusion that set compression can benefit from incorporat- ing statistics, using our method or variants of previously known techniques....

  18. Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

  19. Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-03-01

    We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

  20. Probability functions in the context of signed involutive meadows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.; Ponse, A.

    2016-01-01

    The Kolmogorov axioms for probability functions are placed in the context of signed meadows. A completeness theorem is stated and proven for the resulting equational theory of probability calculus. Elementary definitions of probability theory are restated in this framework.