WorldWideScience

Sample records for posteriori pointwise estimation

  1. Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnsen, Jon

    As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra.The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp , including a new result for type 1,1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp -functions with compact spectra....

  2. Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnsen, Jon

    2011-01-01

    As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra. The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp, including a new result for type 1, 1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp-functions with compact spectra....

  3. A posteriori error estimates in voice source recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonov, A. S.; Sorokin, V. N.

    2017-12-01

    The inverse problem of voice source pulse recovery from a segment of a speech signal is under consideration. A special mathematical model is used for the solution that relates these quantities. A variational method of solving inverse problem of voice source recovery for a new parametric class of sources, that is for piecewise-linear sources (PWL-sources), is proposed. Also, a technique for a posteriori numerical error estimation for obtained solutions is presented. A computer study of the adequacy of adopted speech production model with PWL-sources is performed in solving the inverse problems for various types of voice signals, as well as corresponding study of a posteriori error estimates. Numerical experiments for speech signals show satisfactory properties of proposed a posteriori error estimates, which represent the upper bounds of possible errors in solving the inverse problem. The estimate of the most probable error in determining the source-pulse shapes is about 7-8% for the investigated speech material. It is noted that a posteriori error estimates can be used as a criterion of the quality for obtained voice source pulses in application to speaker recognition.

  4. A posteriori error estimates for axisymmetric and nonlinear problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křížek, Michal; Němec, J.; Vejchodský, Tomáš

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2001), s. 219-236 ISSN 1019-7168 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/01/1200; GA MŠk ME 148 Keywords : weigted Sobolev spaces%a posteriori error estimates%finite elements Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.886, year: 2001

  5. Complementarity based a posteriori error estimates and their properties

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vejchodský, Tomáš

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 82, č. 10 (2012), s. 2033-2046 ISSN 0378-4754 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA102/07/0496; GA AV ČR IAA100760702 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : error majorant * a posteriori error estimates * method of hypercircle Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475411001509

  6. Extracting volatility signal using maximum a posteriori estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, David

    2016-11-01

    This paper outlines a methodology to estimate a denoised volatility signal for foreign exchange rates using a hidden Markov model (HMM). For this purpose a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is performed. A double exponential prior is used for the state variable (the log-volatility) in order to allow sharp jumps in realizations and then log-returns marginal distributions with heavy tails. We consider two routes to choose the regularization and we compare our MAP estimate to realized volatility measure for three exchange rates.

  7. A residual-based a posteriori error estimator for single-phase Darcy flow in fractured porous media

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Huangxin; Sun, Shuyu

    2016-01-01

    for the problem with non-intersecting fractures. The reliability and efficiency of the a posteriori error estimator are established for the error measured in an energy norm. Numerical results verifying the robustness of the proposed a posteriori error estimator

  8. A posteriori error estimates for finite volume approximations of elliptic equations on general surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ju, Lili; Tian, Li; Wang, Desheng

    2008-10-31

    In this paper, we present a residual-based a posteriori error estimate for the finite volume discretization of steady convection– diffusion–reaction equations defined on surfaces in R3, which are often implicitly represented as level sets of smooth functions. Reliability and efficiency of the proposed a posteriori error estimator are rigorously proved. Numerical experiments are also conducted to verify the theoretical results and demonstrate the robustness of the error estimator.

  9. Quantitative Pointwise Estimate of the Solution of the Linearized Boltzmann Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Chu; Wang, Haitao; Wu, Kung-Chien

    2018-04-01

    We study the quantitative pointwise behavior of the solutions of the linearized Boltzmann equation for hard potentials, Maxwellian molecules and soft potentials, with Grad's angular cutoff assumption. More precisely, for solutions inside the finite Mach number region (time like region), we obtain the pointwise fluid structure for hard potentials and Maxwellian molecules, and optimal time decay in the fluid part and sub-exponential time decay in the non-fluid part for soft potentials. For solutions outside the finite Mach number region (space like region), we obtain sub-exponential decay in the space variable. The singular wave estimate, regularization estimate and refined weighted energy estimate play important roles in this paper. Our results extend the classical results of Liu and Yu (Commun Pure Appl Math 57:1543-1608, 2004), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 1:1-78, 2006), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 6:151-243, 2011) and Lee et al. (Commun Math Phys 269:17-37, 2007) to hard and soft potentials by imposing suitable exponential velocity weight on the initial condition.

  10. Quantitative Pointwise Estimate of the Solution of the Linearized Boltzmann Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Chu; Wang, Haitao; Wu, Kung-Chien

    2018-06-01

    We study the quantitative pointwise behavior of the solutions of the linearized Boltzmann equation for hard potentials, Maxwellian molecules and soft potentials, with Grad's angular cutoff assumption. More precisely, for solutions inside the finite Mach number region (time like region), we obtain the pointwise fluid structure for hard potentials and Maxwellian molecules, and optimal time decay in the fluid part and sub-exponential time decay in the non-fluid part for soft potentials. For solutions outside the finite Mach number region (space like region), we obtain sub-exponential decay in the space variable. The singular wave estimate, regularization estimate and refined weighted energy estimate play important roles in this paper. Our results extend the classical results of Liu and Yu (Commun Pure Appl Math 57:1543-1608, 2004), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 1:1-78, 2006), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 6:151-243, 2011) and Lee et al. (Commun Math Phys 269:17-37, 2007) to hard and soft potentials by imposing suitable exponential velocity weight on the initial condition.

  11. Residual-based a posteriori error estimation for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shaohong; Sun, Shuyu; Xie, Xiaoping

    2015-01-01

    A novel residual-type a posteriori error analysis technique is developed for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods for flow in porous media in two or three space dimensions. The derived a posteriori error estimator for the velocity and pressure error in L-norm consists of discretization and quadrature indicators, and is shown to be reliable and efficient. The main tools of analysis are a locally postprocessed approximation to the pressure solution of an auxiliary problem and a quadrature error estimate. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the competitive behavior of the estimator.

  12. Residual-based a posteriori error estimation for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods

    KAUST Repository

    Du, Shaohong

    2015-10-26

    A novel residual-type a posteriori error analysis technique is developed for multipoint flux mixed finite element methods for flow in porous media in two or three space dimensions. The derived a posteriori error estimator for the velocity and pressure error in L-norm consists of discretization and quadrature indicators, and is shown to be reliable and efficient. The main tools of analysis are a locally postprocessed approximation to the pressure solution of an auxiliary problem and a quadrature error estimate. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the competitive behavior of the estimator.

  13. Adaptive finite element techniques for the Maxwell equations using implicit a posteriori error estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harutyunyan, D.; Izsak, F.; van der Vegt, Jacobus J.W.; Bochev, Mikhail A.

    For the adaptive solution of the Maxwell equations on three-dimensional domains with N´ed´elec edge finite element methods, we consider an implicit a posteriori error estimation technique. On each element of the tessellation an equation for the error is formulated and solved with a properly chosen

  14. An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Estimation of Proficiency Level to Detect Multiple Local Likelihood Maxima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

    2010-01-01

    In this article the authors focus on the issue of the nonuniqueness of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of proficiency level in item response theory (with special attention to logistic models). The usual maximum a posteriori (MAP) method offers a good alternative within that framework; however, this article highlights some drawbacks of its…

  15. A residual-based a posteriori error estimator for single-phase Darcy flow in fractured porous media

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Huangxin

    2016-12-09

    In this paper we develop an a posteriori error estimator for a mixed finite element method for single-phase Darcy flow in a two-dimensional fractured porous media. The discrete fracture model is applied to model the fractures by one-dimensional fractures in a two-dimensional domain. We consider Raviart–Thomas mixed finite element method for the approximation of the coupled Darcy flows in the fractures and the surrounding porous media. We derive a robust residual-based a posteriori error estimator for the problem with non-intersecting fractures. The reliability and efficiency of the a posteriori error estimator are established for the error measured in an energy norm. Numerical results verifying the robustness of the proposed a posteriori error estimator are given. Moreover, our numerical results indicate that the a posteriori error estimator also works well for the problem with intersecting fractures.

  16. A Posteriori Error Estimation for Finite Element Methods and Iterative Linear Solvers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melboe, Hallgeir

    2001-10-01

    This thesis addresses a posteriori error estimation for finite element methods and iterative linear solvers. Adaptive finite element methods have gained a lot of popularity over the last decades due to their ability to produce accurate results with limited computer power. In these methods a posteriori error estimates play an essential role. Not only do they give information about how large the total error is, they also indicate which parts of the computational domain should be given a more sophisticated treatment in order to reduce the error. A posteriori error estimates are traditionally aimed at estimating the global error, but more recently so called goal oriented error estimators have been shown a lot of interest. The name reflects the fact that they estimate the error in user-defined local quantities. In this thesis the main focus is on global error estimators for highly stretched grids and goal oriented error estimators for flow problems on regular grids. Numerical methods for partial differential equations, such as finite element methods and other similar techniques, typically result in a linear system of equations that needs to be solved. Usually such systems are solved using some iterative procedure which due to a finite number of iterations introduces an additional error. Most such algorithms apply the residual in the stopping criterion, whereas the control of the actual error may be rather poor. A secondary focus in this thesis is on estimating the errors that are introduced during this last part of the solution procedure. The thesis contains new theoretical results regarding the behaviour of some well known, and a few new, a posteriori error estimators for finite element methods on anisotropic grids. Further, a goal oriented strategy for the computation of forces in flow problems is devised and investigated. Finally, an approach for estimating the actual errors associated with the iterative solution of linear systems of equations is suggested. (author)

  17. Verification of functional a posteriori error estimates for obstacle problem in 1D

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harasim, P.; Valdman, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 5 (2013), s. 738-754 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : obstacle problem * a posteriori error estimate * variational inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.563, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/MTR/valdman-0424082.pdf

  18. Verification of functional a posteriori error estimates for obstacle problem in 2D

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harasim, P.; Valdman, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 978-1002 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : obstacle problem * a posteriori error estimate * finite element method * variational inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/MTR/valdman-0441661.pdf

  19. A review of some a posteriori error estimates for adaptive finite element methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Segeth, Karel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 80, č. 8 (2010), s. 1589-1600 ISSN 0378-4754. [European Seminar on Coupled Problems. Jetřichovice, 08.06.2008-13.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100190803 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : hp-adaptive finite element method * a posteriori error estimators * computational error estimates Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.812, year: 2010 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475408004230

  20. Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helin, T; Burger, M

    2015-01-01

    A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

  1. A Posteriori Error Estimates Including Algebraic Error and Stopping Criteria for Iterative Solvers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiránek, P.; Strakoš, Zdeněk; Vohralík, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 3 (2010), s. 1567-1590 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GP201/09/P464 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : second-order elliptic partial differential equation * finite volume method * a posteriori error estimates * iterative methods for linear algebraic systems * conjugate gradient method * stopping criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.016, year: 2010

  2. A posteriori noise estimation in variable data sets. With applications to spectra and light curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czesla, S.; Molle, T.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.

    2018-01-01

    Most physical data sets contain a stochastic contribution produced by measurement noise or other random sources along with the signal. Usually, neither the signal nor the noise are accurately known prior to the measurement so that both have to be estimated a posteriori. We have studied a procedure to estimate the standard deviation of the stochastic contribution assuming normality and independence, requiring a sufficiently well-sampled data set to yield reliable results. This procedure is based on estimating the standard deviation in a sample of weighted sums of arbitrarily sampled data points and is identical to the so-called DER_SNR algorithm for specific parameter settings. To demonstrate the applicability of our procedure, we present applications to synthetic data, high-resolution spectra, and a large sample of space-based light curves and, finally, give guidelines to apply the procedure in situation not explicitly considered here to promote its adoption in data analysis.

  3. A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

    2010-03-01

    A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

  4. Automatic lung lobe segmentation using particles, thin plate splines, and maximum a posteriori estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, James C; San José Estépar, Rail; Kindlmann, Gordon; Díaz, Alejandro; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Silverman, Edwin K; Washko, George R

    2010-01-01

    We present a fully automatic lung lobe segmentation algorithm that is effective in high resolution computed tomography (CT) datasets in the presence of confounding factors such as incomplete fissures (anatomical structures indicating lobe boundaries), advanced disease states, high body mass index (BMI), and low-dose scanning protocols. In contrast to other algorithms that leverage segmentations of auxiliary structures (esp. vessels and airways), we rely only upon image features indicating fissure locations. We employ a particle system that samples the image domain and provides a set of candidate fissure locations. We follow this stage with maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to eliminate poor candidates and then perform a post-processing operation to remove remaining noise particles. We then fit a thin plate spline (TPS) interpolating surface to the fissure particles to form the final lung lobe segmentation. Results indicate that our algorithm performs comparably to pulmonologist-generated lung lobe segmentations on a set of challenging cases.

  5. Revisiting maximum-a-posteriori estimation in log-concave models: from differential geometry to decision theory

    OpenAIRE

    Pereyra, Marcelo

    2016-01-01

    Maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation is the main Bayesian estimation methodology in many areas of data science such as mathematical imaging and machine learning, where high dimensionality is addressed by using models that are log-concave and whose posterior mode can be computed efficiently by using convex optimisation algorithms. However, despite its success and rapid adoption, MAP estimation is not theoretically well understood yet, and the prevalent view is that it is generally not proper ...

  6. A posteriori error estimator and AMR for discrete ordinates nodal transport methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duo, Jose I.; Azmy, Yousry Y.; Zikatanov, Ludmil T.

    2009-01-01

    In the development of high fidelity transport solvers, optimization of the use of available computational resources and access to a tool for assessing quality of the solution are key to the success of large-scale nuclear systems' simulation. In this regard, error control provides the analyst with a confidence level in the numerical solution and enables for optimization of resources through Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR). In this paper, we derive an a posteriori error estimator based on the nodal solution of the Arbitrarily High Order Transport Method of the Nodal type (AHOT-N). Furthermore, by making assumptions on the regularity of the solution, we represent the error estimator as a function of computable volume and element-edges residuals. The global L 2 error norm is proved to be bound by the estimator. To lighten the computational load, we present a numerical approximation to the aforementioned residuals and split the global norm error estimator into local error indicators. These indicators are used to drive an AMR strategy for the spatial discretization. However, the indicators based on forward solution residuals alone do not bound the cell-wise error. The estimator and AMR strategy are tested in two problems featuring strong heterogeneity and highly transport streaming regime with strong flux gradients. The results show that the error estimator indeed bounds the global error norms and that the error indicator follows the cell-error's spatial distribution pattern closely. The AMR strategy proves beneficial to optimize resources, primarily by reducing the number of unknowns solved for to achieve prescribed solution accuracy in global L 2 error norm. Likewise, AMR achieves higher accuracy compared to uniform refinement when resolving sharp flux gradients, for the same number of unknowns

  7. A functional-type a posteriori error estimate of approximate solutions for Reissner-Mindlin plates and its implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Maxim; Chistiakova, Olga

    2017-06-01

    Paper is devoted to a numerical justification of the recent a posteriori error estimate for Reissner-Mindlin plates. This majorant provides a reliable control of accuracy of any conforming approximate solution of the problem including solutions obtained with commercial software for mechanical engineering. The estimate is developed on the basis of the functional approach and is applicable to several types of boundary conditions. To verify the approach, numerical examples with mesh refinements are provided.

  8. Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakeman, J. D.; Wildey, T.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.

  9. Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, J.D.; Wildey, T.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation

  10. A FEM approximation of a two-phase obstacle problem and its a posteriori error estimate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bozorgnia, F.; Valdman, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 73, č. 3 (2017), s. 419-432 ISSN 0898-1221 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GF16-34894L; GA MŠk(CZ) 7AMB16AT015 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : A free boundary problem * A posteriori error analysis * Finite element method Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 1.531, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/MTR/valdman-0470507.pdf

  11. Adaptive finite element analysis of incompressible viscous flow using posteriori error estimation and control of node density distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yashiki, Taturou; Yagawa, Genki; Okuda, Hiroshi

    1995-01-01

    The adaptive finite element method based on an 'a posteriori error estimation' is known to be a powerful technique for analyzing the engineering practical problems, since it excludes the instinctive aspect of the mesh subdivision and gives high accuracy with relatively low computational cost. In the adaptive procedure, both the error estimation and the mesh generation according to the error estimator are essential. In this paper, the adaptive procedure is realized by the automatic mesh generation based on the control of node density distribution, which is decided according to the error estimator. The global percentage error, CPU time, the degrees of freedom and the accuracy of the solution of the adaptive procedure are compared with those of the conventional method using regular meshes. Such numerical examples as the driven cavity flows of various Reynolds numbers and the flows around a cylinder have shown the very high performance of the proposed adaptive procedure. (author)

  12. Adjoint-Based a Posteriori Error Estimation for Coupled Time-Dependent Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Asner, Liya; Tavener, Simon; Kay, David

    2012-01-01

    We consider time-dependent parabolic problem s coupled across a common interface which we formulate using a Lagrange multiplier construction and solve by applying a monolithic solution technique. We derive an adjoint-based a posteriori error representation for a quantity of interest given by a linear functional of the solution. We establish the accuracy of our error representation formula through numerical experimentation and investigate the effect of error in the adjoint solution. Crucially, the error representation affords a distinction between temporal and spatial errors and can be used as a basis for a blockwise time-space refinement strategy. Numerical tests illustrate the efficacy of the refinement strategy by capturing the distinctive behavior of a localized traveling wave solution. The saddle point systems considered here are equivalent to those arising in the mortar finite element technique for parabolic problems. © 2012 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  13. Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

  14. Adaptive vibrational configuration interaction (A-VCI): A posteriori error estimation to efficiently compute anharmonic IR spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Romain; Odunlami, Marc; Le Bris, Vincent; Bégué, Didier; Baraille, Isabelle; Coulaud, Olivier

    2016-05-01

    A new variational algorithm called adaptive vibrational configuration interaction (A-VCI) intended for the resolution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation was developed. The main advantage of this approach is to efficiently reduce the dimension of the active space generated into the configuration interaction (CI) process. Here, we assume that the Hamiltonian writes as a sum of products of operators. This adaptive algorithm was developed with the use of three correlated conditions, i.e., a suitable starting space, a criterion for convergence, and a procedure to expand the approximate space. The velocity of the algorithm was increased with the use of a posteriori error estimator (residue) to select the most relevant direction to increase the space. Two examples have been selected for benchmark. In the case of H2CO, we mainly study the performance of A-VCI algorithm: comparison with the variation-perturbation method, choice of the initial space, and residual contributions. For CH3CN, we compare the A-VCI results with a computed reference spectrum using the same potential energy surface and for an active space reduced by about 90%.

  15. Maximum a posteriori covariance estimation using a power inverse wishart prior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Feodor; Sporring, Jon

    2012-01-01

    The estimation of the covariance matrix is an initial step in many multivariate statistical methods such as principal components analysis and factor analysis, but in many practical applications the dimensionality of the sample space is large compared to the number of samples, and the usual maximum...

  16. On Pointwise Approximation of Conjugate Functions by Some Hump Matrix Means of Conjugate Fourier Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Łenski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The results generalizing some theorems on N, pnE, γ summability are shown. The same degrees of pointwise approximation as in earlier papers by weaker assumptions on considered functions and examined summability methods are obtained. From presented pointwise results, the estimation on norm approximation is derived. Some special cases as corollaries are also formulated.

  17. Considerations about expected a posteriori estimation in adaptive testing: adaptive a priori, adaptive correction for bias, and adaptive integration interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy

    2009-01-01

    In a computerized adaptive test, we would like to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Unfortunately, decreasing the number of items is accompanied by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. The authors suggest that it is possible to reduced the bias, and even the standard error of the estimate, by applying to each provisional estimation one or a combination of the following strategies: adaptive correction for bias proposed by Bock and Mislevy (1982), adaptive a priori estimate, and adaptive integration interval.

  18. Analysis of an a posteriori error estimator for the transport equation with SN and discontinuous Galerkin discretizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fournier, D.; Le Tellier, R.; Suteau, C.

    2011-01-01

    We present an error estimator for the S N neutron transport equation discretized with an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin method. As a starting point, the estimator is obtained for conforming Cartesian meshes with a uniform polynomial order for the trial space then adapted to deal with non-conforming meshes and a variable polynomial order. Some numerical tests illustrate the properties of the estimator and its limitations. Finally, a simple shielding benchmark is analyzed in order to show the relevance of the estimator in an adaptive process.

  19. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas W. Pedersen

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward.

  20. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A posteriori estimator and adaptive mesh refinement for finite volume finite element method for monophasic flow and solute transport in porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amor, H.; Bourgeois, M.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. The disposal of high level, long lived waste in deep underground clay formations is investigated by several countries including France. In the safety assessment of such geological repositories, a thoughtful consideration must be given to the mechanisms and possible pathways of migration of radionuclides released from waste packages. However, when modelling the transfer of radionuclides throughout the disposal facilities and geological formations, the numerical simulations must take into consideration, in addition to long durations of concern, the variety in the properties as well as in geometrical scales of the different components of the overall disposal, including the host formation. This task presents significant computational challenges. Numerical methods used in the MELODIE software The MELODIE software is developed by IRSN, and constantly upgraded, with the aim to assess the long-term containment capabilities of underground and surface radioactive waste repositories. The MELODIE software models water flow and the phenomena involved in the transport of radionuclides in saturated and unsaturated porous media in 2 and 3 dimensions; chemical processes are represented by a retardation factor and a solubility limit, for sorption and solubility respectively, integrated in the computational equations. These equations are discretized using a so-called Finite Volume Finite Element method (FVFE), which is based on a Galerkin method to discretize time and variables, together with a Finite Volume method using the Godunov scheme for the convection term. The FVFE method is used to convert partial differential equations into a finite number of algebraic equations that match the number of nodes in the mesh used to model the considered domain. It is also used to stabilise the numerical scheme. In order to manage the variety in properties and geometrical scales of underground disposal components, an a posteriori error estimator

  2. Maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of mycophenolic Acid area under the concentration-time curve: is this clinically useful for dosage prediction yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staatz, Christine E; Tett, Susan E

    2011-12-01

    This review seeks to summarize the available data about Bayesian estimation of area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and dosage prediction for mycophenolic acid (MPA) and evaluate whether sufficient evidence is available for routine use of Bayesian dosage prediction in clinical practice. A literature search identified 14 studies that assessed the predictive performance of maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of MPA AUC and one report that retrospectively evaluated how closely dosage recommendations based on Bayesian forecasting achieved targeted MPA exposure. Studies to date have mostly been undertaken in renal transplant recipients, with limited investigation in patients treated with MPA for autoimmune disease or haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All of these studies have involved use of the mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) formulation of MPA, rather than the enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) formulation. Bias associated with estimation of MPA AUC using Bayesian forecasting was generally less than 10%. However some difficulties with imprecision was evident, with values ranging from 4% to 34% (based on estimation involving two or more concentration measurements). Evaluation of whether MPA dosing decisions based on Bayesian forecasting (by the free website service https://pharmaco.chu-limoges.fr) achieved target drug exposure has only been undertaken once. When MMF dosage recommendations were applied by clinicians, a higher proportion (72-80%) of subsequent estimated MPA AUC values were within the 30-60 mg · h/L target range, compared with when dosage recommendations were not followed (only 39-57% within target range). Such findings provide evidence that Bayesian dosage prediction is clinically useful for achieving target MPA AUC. This study, however, was retrospective and focussed only on adult renal transplant recipients. Furthermore, in this study, Bayesian-generated AUC estimations and dosage predictions were not compared

  3. Effects of calibration methods on quantitative material decomposition in photon-counting spectral computed tomography using a maximum a posteriori estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Tyler E; Roeder, Ryan K

    2017-10-01

    Advances in photon-counting detectors have enabled quantitative material decomposition using multi-energy or spectral computed tomography (CT). Supervised methods for material decomposition utilize an estimated attenuation for each material of interest at each photon energy level, which must be calibrated based upon calculated or measured values for known compositions. Measurements using a calibration phantom can advantageously account for system-specific noise, but the effect of calibration methods on the material basis matrix and subsequent quantitative material decomposition has not been experimentally investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the range and number of contrast agent concentrations within a modular calibration phantom on the accuracy of quantitative material decomposition in the image domain. Gadolinium was chosen as a model contrast agent in imaging phantoms, which also contained bone tissue and water as negative controls. The maximum gadolinium concentration (30, 60, and 90 mM) and total number of concentrations (2, 4, and 7) were independently varied to systematically investigate effects of the material basis matrix and scaling factor calibration on the quantitative (root mean squared error, RMSE) and spatial (sensitivity and specificity) accuracy of material decomposition. Images of calibration and sample phantoms were acquired using a commercially available photon-counting spectral micro-CT system with five energy bins selected to normalize photon counts and leverage the contrast agent k-edge. Material decomposition of gadolinium, calcium, and water was performed for each calibration method using a maximum a posteriori estimator. Both the quantitative and spatial accuracy of material decomposition were most improved by using an increased maximum gadolinium concentration (range) in the basis matrix calibration; the effects of using a greater number of concentrations were relatively small in

  4. Pointwise convergence of Fourier series

    CERN Document Server

    Arias de Reyna, Juan

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a detailed exposition of Carleson-Hunt theorem following the proof of Carleson: to this day this is the only one giving better bounds. It points out the motivation of every step in the proof. Thus the Carleson-Hunt theorem becomes accessible to any analyst.The book also contains the first detailed exposition of the fine results of Hunt, Sjölin, Soria, etc on the convergence of Fourier Series. Its final chapters present original material. With both Fefferman's proof and the recent one of Lacey and Thiele in print, it becomes more important than ever to understand and compare these two related proofs with that of Carleson and Hunt. These alternative proofs do not yield all the results of the Carleson-Hunt proof. The intention of this monograph is to make Carleson's proof accessible to a wider audience, and to explain its consequences for the pointwise convergence of Fourier series for functions in spaces near $äcal Lü^1$, filling a well-known gap in the literature.

  5. Maximum a posteriori decoder for digital communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altes, Richard A. (Inventor)

    1997-01-01

    A system and method for decoding by identification of the most likely phase coded signal corresponding to received data. The present invention has particular application to communication with signals that experience spurious random phase perturbations. The generalized estimator-correlator uses a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator to generate phase estimates for correlation with incoming data samples and for correlation with mean phases indicative of unique hypothesized signals. The result is a MAP likelihood statistic for each hypothesized transmission, wherein the highest value statistic identifies the transmitted signal.

  6. Adjoint Based A Posteriori Analysis of Multiscale Mortar Discretizations with Multinumerics

    KAUST Repository

    Tavener, Simon; Wildey, Tim

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we derive a posteriori error estimates for linear functionals of the solution to an elliptic problem discretized using a multiscale nonoverlapping domain decomposition method. The error estimates are based on the solution

  7. Practical Considerations about Expected A Posteriori Estimation in Adaptive Testing: Adaptive A Priori, Adaptive Correction for Bias, and Adaptive Integration Interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy

    In a computerized adaptive test (CAT), it would be desirable to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Decreasing the number of items is accompanied, however, by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. G. Raiche (2000) has…

  8. Energy-pointwise discrete ordinates transport methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.L.; Asgari, M.; Tashakorri, R.

    1997-01-01

    A very brief description is given of a one-dimensional code, CENTRM, which computes a detailed, space-dependent flux spectrum in a pointwise-energy representation within the resolved resonance range. The code will become a component in the SCALE system to improve computation of self-shielded cross sections, thereby enhancing the accuracy of codes such as KENO. CENTRM uses discrete-ordinates transport theory with an arbitrary angular quadrature order and a Legendre expansion of scattering anisotropy for moderator materials and heavy nuclides. The CENTRM program provides capability to deterministically compute full energy range, space-dependent angular flux spectra, rigorously accounting for resonance fine-structure and scattering anisotropy effects

  9. Rapid pointwise stabilization of vibrating strings and beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alia BARHOUMI

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Applying a general construction and using former results on the observability we prove, under rather general assumptions, a rapid pointwise stabilization of vibrating strings and beams.

  10. The undefined function differs from the pointwise undefined function

    OpenAIRE

    Dosch, Walter (Prof.)

    1993-01-01

    The undefined function differs from the pointwise undefined function. - In: Joint Conference on Declarative Programming : Proceedings / Maria I. Sessa ... (eds.). - Salerno : Univ. degli Studi, 1995. - S. 257-268

  11. A Posteriori Error Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Adaptive Multiscale Operator Decomposition Methods for Multiphysics Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Integral Role in Soft Tissue Mechanics, K. Troyer, D. Estep, and C. Puttlitz, Acta Biomaterialia 8 (201 2), 234-244 • A posteriori analysis of multi rate...2013, submitted • A posteriori error estimation for the Lax -Wendroff finite difference scheme, J. B. Collins, D. Estep, and S. Tavener, Journal of...oped over neArly six decades of activity and the major developments form a highly inter- connected web. We do not. ətternpt to review the history of

  12. MATRIX-VECTOR ALGORITHMS OF LOCAL POSTERIORI INFERENCE IN ALGEBRAIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS ON QUANTA PROPOSITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Zolotin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Posteriori inference is one of the three kinds of probabilistic-logic inferences in the probabilistic graphical models theory and the base for processing of knowledge patterns with probabilistic uncertainty using Bayesian networks. The paper deals with a task of local posteriori inference description in algebraic Bayesian networks that represent a class of probabilistic graphical models by means of matrix-vector equations. The latter are essentially based on the use of tensor product of matrices, Kronecker degree and Hadamard product. Matrix equations for calculating posteriori probabilities vectors within posteriori inference in knowledge patterns with quanta propositions are obtained. Similar equations of the same type have already been discussed within the confines of the theory of algebraic Bayesian networks, but they were built only for the case of posteriori inference in the knowledge patterns on the ideals of conjuncts. During synthesis and development of matrix-vector equations on quanta propositions probability vectors, a number of earlier results concerning normalizing factors in posteriori inference and assignment of linear projective operator with a selector vector was adapted. We consider all three types of incoming evidences - deterministic, stochastic and inaccurate - combined with scalar and interval estimation of probability truth of propositional formulas in the knowledge patterns. Linear programming problems are formed. Their solution gives the desired interval values of posterior probabilities in the case of inaccurate evidence or interval estimates in a knowledge pattern. That sort of description of a posteriori inference gives the possibility to extend the set of knowledge pattern types that we can use in the local and global posteriori inference, as well as simplify complex software implementation by use of existing third-party libraries, effectively supporting submission and processing of matrices and vectors when

  13. Enhancement of Visual Field Predictions with Pointwise Exponential Regression (PER) and Pointwise Linear Regression (PLR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Esteban; de Leon, John Mark S; Abdollahi, Niloufar; Yu, Fei; Nouri-Mahdavi, Kouros; Caprioli, Joseph

    2016-03-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate threshold smoothing algorithms to enhance prediction of the rates of visual field (VF) worsening in glaucoma. We studied 798 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma and 6 or more years of follow-up who underwent 8 or more VF examinations. Thresholds at each VF location for the first 4 years or first half of the follow-up time (whichever was greater) were smoothed with clusters defined by the nearest neighbor (NN), Garway-Heath, Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT), and weighting by the correlation of rates at all other VF locations. Thresholds were regressed with a pointwise exponential regression (PER) model and a pointwise linear regression (PLR) model. Smaller root mean square error (RMSE) values of the differences between the observed and the predicted thresholds at last two follow-ups indicated better model predictions. The mean (SD) follow-up times for the smoothing and prediction phase were 5.3 (1.5) and 10.5 (3.9) years. The mean RMSE values for the PER and PLR models were unsmoothed data, 6.09 and 6.55; NN, 3.40 and 3.42; Garway-Heath, 3.47 and 3.48; GHT, 3.57 and 3.74; and correlation of rates, 3.59 and 3.64. Smoothed VF data predicted better than unsmoothed data. Nearest neighbor provided the best predictions; PER also predicted consistently more accurately than PLR. Smoothing algorithms should be used when forecasting VF results with PER or PLR. The application of smoothing algorithms on VF data can improve forecasting in VF points to assist in treatment decisions.

  14. Pointwise Stabilization of a Hybrid System and Optimal Location of Actuator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammari, Kais; Saidi, Abdelkader

    2007-01-01

    We consider a pointwise stabilization problem for a model arising in the control of noise. We prove that we have exponential stability for the low frequencies but not for the high frequencies. Thus, we give an explicit polynomial decay estimation at high frequencies that is valid for regular initial data while clarifying that the behavior of the constant which intervenes in this estimation there, functions as the frequency of cut. We propose a numerical approximation of the model and study numerically the best location of the actuator at low frequencies

  15. An A Posteriori Error Analysis of Mixed Finite Element Galerkin Approximations to Second Order Linear Parabolic Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Memon, Sajid; Nataraj, Neela; Pani, Amiya Kumar

    2012-01-01

    In this article, a posteriori error estimates are derived for mixed finite element Galerkin approximations to second order linear parabolic initial and boundary value problems. Using mixed elliptic reconstructions, a posteriori error estimates in L∞(L2)- and L2(L2)-norms for the solution as well as its flux are proved for the semidiscrete scheme. Finally, based on a backward Euler method, a completely discrete scheme is analyzed and a posteriori error bounds are derived, which improves upon earlier results on a posteriori estimates of mixed finite element approximations to parabolic problems. Results of numerical experiments verifying the efficiency of the estimators have also been provided. © 2012 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  16. A computer program for the pointwise functions generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldeira, Alexandre D.

    1995-01-01

    A computer program that was developed with the objective of generating pointwise functions, by a combination of tabulated values and/or mathematical expressions, to be used as weighting functions for nuclear data is presented. This simple program can be an important tool for researchers involved in group constants generation. (author). 5 refs, 2 figs

  17. Learning With Mixed Hard/Soft Pointwise Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnecco, Giorgio; Gori, Marco; Melacci, Stefano; Sanguineti, Marcello

    2015-09-01

    A learning paradigm is proposed and investigated, in which the classical framework of learning from examples is enhanced by the introduction of hard pointwise constraints, i.e., constraints imposed on a finite set of examples that cannot be violated. Such constraints arise, e.g., when requiring coherent decisions of classifiers acting on different views of the same pattern. The classical examples of supervised learning, which can be violated at the cost of some penalization (quantified by the choice of a suitable loss function) play the role of soft pointwise constraints. Constrained variational calculus is exploited to derive a representer theorem that provides a description of the functional structure of the optimal solution to the proposed learning paradigm. It is shown that such an optimal solution can be represented in terms of a set of support constraints, which generalize the concept of support vectors and open the doors to a novel learning paradigm, called support constraint machines. The general theory is applied to derive the representation of the optimal solution to the problem of learning from hard linear pointwise constraints combined with soft pointwise constraints induced by supervised examples. In some cases, closed-form optimal solutions are obtained.

  18. A Point-Wise Quantification of Asymmetry Using Deformation Fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsdóttir, Hildur; Lanche, Stephanie; Darvann, Tron Andre

    2007-01-01

    of the resulting displacement vectors on the left and right side of the symmetry plane, gives a point-wise measure of asymmetry. The asymmetry measure was applied to the study of Crouzon syndrome using Micro CT scans of genetically modified mice. Crouzon syndrome is characterised by the premature fusion of cranial...

  19. Robust a Posteriori Error Control and Adaptivity for Multiscale, Multinumerics, and Mortar Coupling

    KAUST Repository

    Pencheva, Gergina V.; Vohralí k, Martin; Wheeler, Mary F.; Wildey, Tim

    2013-01-01

    -order polynomials are used on the mortar interface mesh. We derive several fully computable a posteriori error estimates which deliver a guaranteed upper bound on the error measured in the energy norm. Our estimates are also locally efficient and one of them

  20. [ETHICAL PRINCIPALS AND A POSTERIORI JUSTIFICATIONS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heintz, Monica

    2015-12-01

    It is difficult to conceive that the human being, while being the same everywhere, could be cared for in such different ways in other societies. Anthropologists acknowledge that the diversity of cultures implies a diversity of moral values, thus that in a multicultural society the individual could draw upon different moral frames to justify the peculiarities of her/his demand of care. But how could we determine what is the moral frame that catalyzes behaviour while all we can record are a posteriori justifications of actions? In most multicultural societies where several moralframes coexist, there is an implicit hierarchy between ethical systems derived from a hierarchy of power which falsifies these a posteriori justifications. Moreover anthropologists often fail to acknowledge that individual behaviour does not always reflect individual values, but is more often the result of negotiations between the moralframes available in society and her/his own desires and personal experience. This is certainly due to the difficulty to account for a dynamic and complex interplay of moral values that cannot be analysed as a system. The impact of individual experience on the way individuals give or receive care could also be only weakly linked to a moral system even when this reference comes up explicitly in the a posteriori justifications.

  1. Pointwise Partial Information Decomposition Using the Specificity and Ambiguity Lattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Conor; Lizier, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    What are the distinct ways in which a set of predictor variables can provide information about a target variable? When does a variable provide unique information, when do variables share redundant information, and when do variables combine synergistically to provide complementary information? The redundancy lattice from the partial information decomposition of Williams and Beer provided a promising glimpse at the answer to these questions. However, this structure was constructed using a much criticised measure of redundant information, and despite sustained research, no completely satisfactory replacement measure has been proposed. In this paper, we take a different approach, applying the axiomatic derivation of the redundancy lattice to a single realisation from a set of discrete variables. To overcome the difficulty associated with signed pointwise mutual information, we apply this decomposition separately to the unsigned entropic components of pointwise mutual information which we refer to as the specificity and ambiguity. This yields a separate redundancy lattice for each component. Then based upon an operational interpretation of redundancy, we define measures of redundant specificity and ambiguity enabling us to evaluate the partial information atoms in each lattice. These atoms can be recombined to yield the sought-after multivariate information decomposition. We apply this framework to canonical examples from the literature and discuss the results and the various properties of the decomposition. In particular, the pointwise decomposition using specificity and ambiguity satisfies a chain rule over target variables, which provides new insights into the so-called two-bit-copy example.

  2. Adjoint Based A Posteriori Analysis of Multiscale Mortar Discretizations with Multinumerics

    KAUST Repository

    Tavener, Simon

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we derive a posteriori error estimates for linear functionals of the solution to an elliptic problem discretized using a multiscale nonoverlapping domain decomposition method. The error estimates are based on the solution of an appropriately defined adjoint problem. We present a general framework that allows us to consider both primal and mixed formulations of the forward and adjoint problems within each subdomain. The primal subdomains are discretized using either an interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin method or a continuous Galerkin method with weakly imposed Dirichlet conditions. The mixed subdomains are discretized using Raviart- Thomas mixed finite elements. The a posteriori error estimate also accounts for the errors due to adjoint-inconsistent subdomain discretizations. The coupling between the subdomain discretizations is achieved via a mortar space. We show that the numerical discretization error can be broken down into subdomain and mortar components which may be used to drive adaptive refinement.Copyright © by SIAM.

  3. Pointwise convergence and Ascoli theorems for nearness spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanbo Yang

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available We first study subspaces and product spaces in the context of nearness spaces and prove that U-N spaces, C-N spaces, PN spaces and totally bounded nearness spaces are nearness hereditary; T-N spaces and compact nearness spaces are N-closed hereditary. We prove that N2 plus compact implies N-closed subsets. We prove that totally bounded, compact and N2 are productive. We generalize the concepts of neighborhood systems into the nearness spaces and prove that the nearness neighborhood systems are consistent with existing concepts of neighborhood systems in topological spaces, uniform spaces and proximity spaces respectively when considered in the respective sub-categories. We prove that a net of functions is convergent under the pointwise convergent nearness structure if and only if its cross-section at each point is convergent. We have also proved two Ascoli-Arzelà type of theorems.

  4. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  5. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  6. A Posteriori Approach for Community Detection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chuan Shi; Zhen-Yu Yan; Xin Pan; Ya-Nan Cai; Bin Wu

    2011-01-01

    Conventional community detection approaches in complex network are based on the optimization of a priori decision,i.e.,a single quality function designed beforehand.This paper proposes a posteriori decision approach for community detection.The approach includes two phases:in the search phase,a special multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is designed to search for a set of tradeoff partitions that reveal the community structure at different scales in one run; in the decision phase,three model selection criteria and the Possibility Matrix method are proposed to aid decision makers to select the preferable solutions through differentiating the set of optimal solutions according to their qualities.The experiments in five synthetic and real social networks illustrate that,in one run,our method is able to obtain many candidate solutions,which effectively avoids the resolution limit existing in priori decision approaches.In addition,our method can discover more authentic and comprehensive community structures than those priori decision approaches.

  7. A posteriori error analysis of multiscale operator decomposition methods for multiphysics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estep, D; Carey, V; Tavener, S; Ginting, V; Wildey, T

    2008-01-01

    Multiphysics, multiscale models present significant challenges in computing accurate solutions and for estimating the error in information computed from numerical solutions. In this paper, we describe recent advances in extending the techniques of a posteriori error analysis to multiscale operator decomposition solution methods. While the particulars of the analysis vary considerably with the problem, several key ideas underlie a general approach being developed to treat operator decomposition multiscale methods. We explain these ideas in the context of three specific examples

  8. A Pointwise Dimension Analysis of the Las Campanas Redshift Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, J. S.

    1999-12-01

    The modern motivation for fractal geometry may best be summed up by this quote of Benoit Mandelbrot: ``Mountains are not cones, clouds are not spheres, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line.'' Fractals are, in simplest terms, ``objects which are (approximately) self-similar on all scales.'' The renewed modern interest in fractals has found as one of its applications the study of large-scale structure, giving a quantitative descriptive scheme to ideas that had been expressed qualitatively as early as the 1920s. This paper presents the preliminary results of an analysis of the structure of the Las Campanas Redshift Survey, or LCRS. LCRS is an approximately 26000 galaxy survey (surveyed as six declination slices) that has been studied extensively over the past few years, with an eye towards understanding large-scale structure. For this analysis, I have used the pointwise dimension, an easy-to-apply fractal statistic which has been previously used to study cluster interiors, galactic distributions, and cluster distributions. The present analysis has been performed to serve as a guide for the study of future large redshift surveys. This research has been funded by National Science Foundation grant AST-9808608.

  9. Stress-induced alterations of left-right electrodermal activity coupling indexed by pointwise transinformation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Světlák, M.; Bob, P.; Roman, R.; Ježek, S.; Damborská, A.; Chládek, Jan; Shaw, D. J.; Kukleta, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 6 (2013), s. 711-719 ISSN 0862-8408 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : electrodermal activity * pointwise trasinformation * autonomic nervous system * asymmetry * stress Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 1.487, year: 2013

  10. ALTERNATE PURSUIT WITH THREE PARTICIPANTS (THE CASE OF POINTWISE MEETING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Shiryayev

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The issues connected with alternate pursuit of escapees group are considered in a number of papers. So in papers [1–3] the solution of the problem has been found in the assumption that the next meeting is selected at the initial time (by the program and the players are moving straight. In paper [4] the solution of the task using the approach of R. Isaacs is given. In paper [5] the choice opportunities of the next meeting ( both software and positional are considered. The article deals with a simple differential game on the pursuer plane P and the coalition of two escapees E={E1,E2}.The movement of all the players are assumed as inertialess. The pursuer speed P exceeds the speed of each of the escapees. The targets, physical abilities and the exact location of each other in any moment of the game are known to all players. The price of the coalition (the pursuer P is (minus the total time spent by the pursuer P on the pointwise meeting with E1 and E2. A coincidence of pursuer and escapee location is meant under the meeting. The choice at the initial time of the persecution is supposed as given (software selectable regular meeting. The limit of the security zone of the second escapee has been found. A geometric approach is used in the problem solving. The resulting system of equations is solved numerically by means of computer algebra, in particular through the Wolfram Mathematics. After defining the boundary of the second escapee security zone one can study the game between the pursuer Р and three escapees acting in concord (the first escapee is eliminated from the game.

  11. Discontinuous Galerkin methods and a posteriori error analysis for heterogenous diffusion problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephansen, A.F.

    2007-12-01

    In this thesis we analyse a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method and two computable a posteriori error estimators for the linear and stationary advection-diffusion-reaction equation with heterogeneous diffusion. The DG method considered, the SWIP method, is a variation of the Symmetric Interior Penalty Galerkin method. The difference is that the SWIP method uses weighted averages with weights that depend on the diffusion. The a priori analysis shows optimal convergence with respect to mesh-size and robustness with respect to heterogeneous diffusion, which is confirmed by numerical tests. Both a posteriori error estimators are of the residual type and control the energy (semi-)norm of the error. Local lower bounds are obtained showing that almost all indicators are independent of heterogeneities. The exception is for the non-conforming part of the error, which has been evaluated using the Oswald interpolator. The second error estimator is sharper in its estimate with respect to the first one, but it is slightly more costly. This estimator is based on the construction of an H(div)-conforming Raviart-Thomas-Nedelec flux using the conservativeness of DG methods. Numerical results show that both estimators can be used for mesh-adaptation. (author)

  12. A Posteriori Restoration of Block Transform-Compressed Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R.; Boden, A. F.

    1995-01-01

    The Galileo spacecraft will use lossy data compression for the transmission of its science imagery over the low-bandwidth communication system. The technique chosen for image compression is a block transform technique based on the Integer Cosine Transform, a derivative of the JPEG image compression standard. Considered here are two known a posteriori enhancement techniques, which are adapted.

  13. Design of wave breaking experiments and A-Posteriori Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kurnia, R.; Kurnia, Ruddy; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    2014-01-01

    This report presents results of 30 wave breaking experiments conducted in the long wave tank of TU Delft, Department of Maritime and Transport Technology (6,7 and 10-12 March 2014), together with simulations performed before the experiment to determine the required wave maker motion and a-posteriori

  14. Design of wave breaking experiments and A-Posteriori Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kurnia, Ruddy; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    This report presents results of 30 wave breaking experiments conducted in the long wave tank of TU Delft, Department of Maritime and Transport Technology (6,7 and 10-12 March 2014), together with simulations performed before the experiment to determine the required wave maker motion and a-posteriori

  15. A posteriori uncertainty quantification of PIV-based pressure data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Azijli, I.; Sciacchitano, A.; Ragni, D.; Palha Da Silva Clérigo, A.; Dwight, R.P.

    2016-01-01

    A methodology for a posteriori uncertainty quantification of pressure data retrieved from particle image velocimetry (PIV) is proposed. It relies upon the Bayesian framework, where the posterior distribution (probability distribution of the true velocity, given the PIV measurements) is obtained from

  16. A Posteriori Error Analysis of Stochastic Differential Equations Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.; Dawson, C.; Wildey, T.

    2011-01-01

    We develop computable a posteriori error estimates for linear functionals of a solution to a general nonlinear stochastic differential equation with random model/source parameters. These error estimates are based on a variational analysis applied to stochastic Galerkin methods for forward and adjoint problems. The result is a representation for the error estimate as a polynomial in the random model/source parameter. The advantage of this method is that we use polynomial chaos representations for the forward and adjoint systems to cheaply produce error estimates by simple evaluation of a polynomial. By comparison, the typical method of producing such estimates requires repeated forward/adjoint solves for each new choice of random parameter. We present numerical examples showing that there is excellent agreement between these methods. © 2011 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  17. Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

  18. Pointwise Multipliers on Spaces of Homogeneous Type in the Sense of Coifman and Weiss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanchang Han

    2014-01-01

    homogeneous type in the sense of Coifman and Weiss, pointwise multipliers of inhomogeneous Besov and Triebel-Lizorkin spaces are obtained. We make no additional assumptions on the quasi-metric or the doubling measure. Hence, the results of this paper extend earlier related results to a more general setting.

  19. Level set segmentation of medical images based on local region statistics and maximum a posteriori probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Wenchao; Wang, Yi; Lei, Tao; Fan, Yangyu; Feng, Yan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a variational level set method for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images with intensity inhomogeneity. In our model, the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different tissue in local regions are characterized by Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. According to maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) and Bayes' rule, we first derive a local objective function for image intensities in a neighborhood around each pixel. Then this local objective function is integrated with respect to the neighborhood center over the entire image domain to give a global criterion. In level set framework, this global criterion defines an energy in terms of the level set functions that represent a partition of the image domain and a bias field that accounts for the intensity inhomogeneity of the image. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved via a level set evolution process. Experimental results for synthetic and real images show desirable performances of our method.

  20. Discontinuous Galerkin methods and a posteriori error analysis for heterogenous diffusion problems; Methodes de Galerkine discontinues et analyse d'erreur a posteriori pour les problemes de diffusion heterogene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephansen, A.F

    2007-12-15

    In this thesis we analyse a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method and two computable a posteriori error estimators for the linear and stationary advection-diffusion-reaction equation with heterogeneous diffusion. The DG method considered, the SWIP method, is a variation of the Symmetric Interior Penalty Galerkin method. The difference is that the SWIP method uses weighted averages with weights that depend on the diffusion. The a priori analysis shows optimal convergence with respect to mesh-size and robustness with respect to heterogeneous diffusion, which is confirmed by numerical tests. Both a posteriori error estimators are of the residual type and control the energy (semi-)norm of the error. Local lower bounds are obtained showing that almost all indicators are independent of heterogeneities. The exception is for the non-conforming part of the error, which has been evaluated using the Oswald interpolator. The second error estimator is sharper in its estimate with respect to the first one, but it is slightly more costly. This estimator is based on the construction of an H(div)-conforming Raviart-Thomas-Nedelec flux using the conservativeness of DG methods. Numerical results show that both estimators can be used for mesh-adaptation. (author)

  1. The role of a posteriori mathematics in physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Edward

    2018-05-01

    The calculus that co-evolved with classical mechanics relied on definitions of functions and differentials that accommodated physical intuitions. In the early nineteenth century mathematicians began the rigorous reformulation of calculus and eventually succeeded in putting almost all of mathematics on a set-theoretic foundation. Physicists traditionally ignore this rigorous mathematics. Physicists often rely on a posteriori math, a practice of using physical considerations to determine mathematical formulations. This is illustrated by examples from classical and quantum physics. A justification of such practice stems from a consideration of the role of phenomenological theories in classical physics and effective theories in contemporary physics. This relates to the larger question of how physical theories should be interpreted.

  2. A priori and a posteriori approaches in human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffon-Fouco, M.; Gagnolet, P.

    1981-09-01

    The French atomic energy commission (CEA) and the French supplier in electric power (EDF) have joint studies on human factors in nuclear safety. This paper deals with these studies which are a combination of two approaches: - An a posteriori approach so as to know the rate of human errors and their causes: an analysis of incident data banks and an analysis of human errors on simulator are presented. - An a priori approach so as to know the potential factors of human errors: an analysis of the control rooms design and an analysis of the writing of procedures are presented. The possibility to take into account these two approaches to prevent and quantify human errors is discussed

  3. A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltz, Adriene M; Molenaar, Peter C M

    2015-01-01

    A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a) to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests), and (b) to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one) simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates) and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data).

  4. A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriene M. Beltz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests, and (b to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data.

  5. Broad frequency band full field measurements for advanced applications: Point-wise comparisons between optical technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanarini, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    The progress of optical systems gives nowadays at disposal on lightweight structures complex dynamic measurements and modal tests, each with its own advantages, drawbacks and preferred usage domains. It is thus more easy than before to obtain highly spatially defined vibration patterns for many applications in vibration engineering, testing and general product development. The potential of three completely different technologies is here benchmarked on a common test rig and advanced applications. SLDV, dynamic ESPI and hi-speed DIC are here first deployed in a complex and unique test on the estimation of FRFs with high spatial accuracy from a thin vibrating plate. The latter exhibits a broad band dynamics and high modal density in the common frequency domain where the techniques can find an operative intersection. A peculiar point-wise comparison is here addressed by means of discrete geometry transforms to put all the three technologies on trial at each physical point of the surface. Full field measurement technologies cannot estimate only displacement fields on a refined grid, but can exploit the spatial consistency of the results through neighbouring locations by means of numerical differentiation operators in the spatial domain to obtain rotational degrees of freedom and superficial dynamic strain distributions, with enhanced quality, compared to other technologies in literature. Approaching the task with the aid of superior quality receptance maps from the three different full field gears, this work calculates and compares rotational and dynamic strain FRFs. Dynamic stress FRFs can be modelled directly from the latter, by means of a constitutive model, avoiding the costly and time-consuming steps of building and tuning a numerical dynamic model of a flexible component or a structure in real life conditions. Once dynamic stress FRFs are obtained, spectral fatigue approaches can try to predict the life of a component in many excitation conditions. Different

  6. Theory and application of deterministic multidimensional pointwise energy lattice physics methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerkle, M.L.

    1999-01-01

    The theory and application of deterministic, multidimensional, pointwise energy lattice physics methods are discussed. These methods may be used to solve the neutron transport equation in multidimensional geometries using near-continuous energy detail to calculate equivalent few-group diffusion theory constants that rigorously account for spatial and spectral self-shielding effects. A dual energy resolution slowing down algorithm is described which reduces the computer memory and disk storage requirements for the slowing down calculation. Results are presented for a 2D BWR pin cell depletion benchmark problem

  7. On Evaluation of Recharge Model Uncertainty: a Priori and a Posteriori

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming Ye; Karl Pohlmann; Jenny Chapman; David Shafer

    2006-01-01

    Hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions. Hydrologic analyses typically rely on a single conceptual-mathematical model, which ignores conceptual model uncertainty and may result in bias in predictions and under-estimation of predictive uncertainty. This study is to assess conceptual model uncertainty residing in five recharge models developed to date by different researchers based on different theories for Nevada and Death Valley area, CA. A recently developed statistical method, Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging (MLBMA), is utilized for this analysis. In a Bayesian framework, the recharge model uncertainty is assessed, a priori, using expert judgments collected through an expert elicitation in the form of prior probabilities of the models. The uncertainty is then evaluated, a posteriori, by updating the prior probabilities to estimate posterior model probability. The updating is conducted through maximum likelihood inverse modeling by calibrating the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model corresponding to each recharge model against observations of head and flow. Calibration results of DVRFS for the five recharge models are used to estimate three information criteria (AIC, BIC, and KIC) used to rank and discriminate these models. Posterior probabilities of the five recharge models, evaluated using KIC, are used as weights to average head predictions, which gives posterior mean and variance. The posterior quantities incorporate both parametric and conceptual model uncertainties

  8. Common Fixed Points for Asymptotic Pointwise Nonexpansive Mappings in Metric and Banach Spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pasom

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Let C be a nonempty bounded closed convex subset of a complete CAT(0 space X. We prove that the common fixed point set of any commuting family of asymptotic pointwise nonexpansive mappings on C is nonempty closed and convex. We also show that, under some suitable conditions, the sequence {xk}k=1∞ defined by xk+1=(1-tmkxk⊕tmkTmnky(m-1k, y(m-1k=(1-t(m-1kxk⊕t(m-1kTm-1nky(m-2k,y(m-2k=(1-t(m-2kxk⊕t(m-2kTm-2nky(m-3k,…,y2k=(1-t2kxk⊕t2kT2nky1k,y1k=(1-t1kxk⊕t1kT1nky0k,y0k=xk,  k∈N, converges to a common fixed point of T1,T2,…,Tm where they are asymptotic pointwise nonexpansive mappings on C, {tik}k=1∞ are sequences in [0,1] for all i=1,2,…,m, and {nk} is an increasing sequence of natural numbers. The related results for uniformly convex Banach spaces are also included.

  9. Converting point-wise nuclear cross sections to pole representation using regularized vector fitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xingjie; Ducru, Pablo; Liu, Shichang; Forget, Benoit; Liang, Jingang; Smith, Kord

    2018-03-01

    Direct Doppler broadening of nuclear cross sections in Monte Carlo codes has been widely sought for coupled reactor simulations. One recent approach proposed analytical broadening using a pole representation of the commonly used resonance models and the introduction of a local windowing scheme to improve performance (Hwang, 1987; Forget et al., 2014; Josey et al., 2015, 2016). This pole representation has been achieved in the past by converting resonance parameters in the evaluation nuclear data library into poles and residues. However, cross sections of some isotopes are only provided as point-wise data in ENDF/B-VII.1 library. To convert these isotopes to pole representation, a recent approach has been proposed using the relaxed vector fitting (RVF) algorithm (Gustavsen and Semlyen, 1999; Gustavsen, 2006; Liu et al., 2018). This approach however needs to specify ahead of time the number of poles. This article addresses this issue by adding a poles and residues filtering step to the RVF procedure. This regularized VF (ReV-Fit) algorithm is shown to efficiently converge the poles close to the physical ones, eliminating most of the superfluous poles, and thus enabling the conversion of point-wise nuclear cross sections.

  10. Criticality benchmarks for COG: A new point-wise Monte Carlo code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.; Pearson, J.; Choi, J.S.

    1989-01-01

    COG is a new point-wise Monte Carlo code being developed and tested at LLNL for the Cray computer. It solves the Boltzmann equation for the transport of neutrons, photons, and (in future versions) charged particles. Techniques included in the code for modifying the random walk of particles make COG most suitable for solving deep-penetration (shielding) problems. However, its point-wise cross-sections also make it effective for a wide variety of criticality problems. COG has some similarities to a number of other computer codes used in the shielding and criticality community. These include the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) codes TART and ALICE, the Los Alamos National Laboratory code MCNP, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory codes 05R, 06R, KENO, and MORSE, the SACLAY code TRIPOLI, and the MAGI code SAM. Each code is a little different in its geometry input and its random-walk modification options. Validating COG consists in part of running benchmark calculations against critical experiments as well as other codes. The objective of this paper is to present calculational results of a variety of critical benchmark experiments using COG, and to present the resulting code bias. Numerous benchmark calculations have been completed for a wide variety of critical experiments which generally involve both simple and complex physical problems. The COG results, which they report in this paper, have been excellent

  11. A Posteriori Finite Element Bounds for Sensitivity Derivatives of Partial-Differential-Equation Outputs. Revised

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Robert Michael; Patera, Anthony T.; Peraire, Jaume

    1998-01-01

    We present a Neumann-subproblem a posteriori finite element procedure for the efficient and accurate calculation of rigorous, 'constant-free' upper and lower bounds for sensitivity derivatives of functionals of the solutions of partial differential equations. The design motivation for sensitivity derivative error control is discussed; the a posteriori finite element procedure is described; the asymptotic bounding properties and computational complexity of the method are summarized; and illustrative numerical results are presented.

  12. A posteriori stereotype activation: The preservation of stereotypes through memory distortion

    OpenAIRE

    Knippenberg, A. van; Dijksterhuis, A.

    1996-01-01

    Four experiments investigated memory for stereotype-consistent and stereotype-inconsistent information after a posteriori stereotype activation. In Experiment 1 it was established that, in comparison with a no stereotype control condition, recall of stereotype-inconsistent behaviors of group members deteriorated after a posteriori stereotype activation, while recall of stereotype-consistent information was not affected. An explanation of this phenomenon in terms of the memory organization of ...

  13. Robust a Posteriori Error Control and Adaptivity for Multiscale, Multinumerics, and Mortar Coupling

    KAUST Repository

    Pencheva, Gergina V.

    2013-01-01

    We consider discretizations of a model elliptic problem by means of different numerical methods applied separately in different subdomains, termed multinumerics, coupled using the mortar technique. The grids need not match along the interfaces. We are also interested in the multiscale setting, where the subdomains are partitioned by a mesh of size h, whereas the interfaces are partitioned by a mesh of much coarser size H, and where lower-order polynomials are used in the subdomains and higher-order polynomials are used on the mortar interface mesh. We derive several fully computable a posteriori error estimates which deliver a guaranteed upper bound on the error measured in the energy norm. Our estimates are also locally efficient and one of them is robust with respect to the ratio H/h under an assumption of sufficient regularity of the weak solution. The present approach allows bounding separately and comparing mutually the subdomain and interface errors. A subdomain/interface adaptive refinement strategy is proposed and numerically tested. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  14. Simultaneous maximum a posteriori longitudinal PET image reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Sam; Reader, Andrew J.

    2017-09-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is frequently used to monitor functional changes that occur over extended time scales, for example in longitudinal oncology PET protocols that include routine clinical follow-up scans to assess the efficacy of a course of treatment. In these contexts PET datasets are currently reconstructed into images using single-dataset reconstruction methods. Inspired by recently proposed joint PET-MR reconstruction methods, we propose to reconstruct longitudinal datasets simultaneously by using a joint penalty term in order to exploit the high degree of similarity between longitudinal images. We achieved this by penalising voxel-wise differences between pairs of longitudinal PET images in a one-step-late maximum a posteriori (MAP) fashion, resulting in the MAP simultaneous longitudinal reconstruction (SLR) method. The proposed method reduced reconstruction errors and visually improved images relative to standard maximum likelihood expectation-maximisation (ML-EM) in simulated 2D longitudinal brain tumour scans. In reconstructions of split real 3D data with inserted simulated tumours, noise across images reconstructed with MAP-SLR was reduced to levels equivalent to doubling the number of detected counts when using ML-EM. Furthermore, quantification of tumour activities was largely preserved over a variety of longitudinal tumour changes, including changes in size and activity, with larger changes inducing larger biases relative to standard ML-EM reconstructions. Similar improvements were observed for a range of counts levels, demonstrating the robustness of the method when used with a single penalty strength. The results suggest that longitudinal regularisation is a simple but effective method of improving reconstructed PET images without using resolution degrading priors.

  15. Preconditioned alternating projection algorithms for maximum a posteriori ECT reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, Andrzej; Li, Si; Shen, Lixin; Xu, Yuesheng

    2012-01-01

    We propose a preconditioned alternating projection algorithm (PAPA) for solving the maximum a posteriori (MAP) emission computed tomography (ECT) reconstruction problem. Specifically, we formulate the reconstruction problem as a constrained convex optimization problem with the total variation (TV) regularization. We then characterize the solution of the constrained convex optimization problem and show that it satisfies a system of fixed-point equations defined in terms of two proximity operators raised from the convex functions that define the TV-norm and the constraint involved in the problem. The characterization (of the solution) via the proximity operators that define two projection operators naturally leads to an alternating projection algorithm for finding the solution. For efficient numerical computation, we introduce to the alternating projection algorithm a preconditioning matrix (the EM-preconditioner) for the dense system matrix involved in the optimization problem. We prove theoretically convergence of the PAPA. In numerical experiments, performance of our algorithms, with an appropriately selected preconditioning matrix, is compared with performance of the conventional MAP expectation-maximization (MAP-EM) algorithm with TV regularizer (EM-TV) and that of the recently developed nested EM-TV algorithm for ECT reconstruction. Based on the numerical experiments performed in this work, we observe that the alternating projection algorithm with the EM-preconditioner outperforms significantly the EM-TV in all aspects including the convergence speed, the noise in the reconstructed images and the image quality. It also outperforms the nested EM-TV in the convergence speed while providing comparable image quality. (paper)

  16. A posteriori error analysis for hydro-mechanical couplings and implementation in Code-Aster; Analyse d'erreur a posteriori pour les couplages hydro-mecaniques et mise en oeuvre dans Code-Aster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meunier, S

    2007-11-15

    We analyse approximations by finite elements in space and finite differences in time of coupled Hydro-Mechanical (HM) problems related to the quasi-static linear poro-elasticity theory. The physical bases of this theory are briefly restated and an abstract setting is proposed to perform the mathematical study of the stationary and un-stationary versions of the HM problem. For the stationary version, the well-posedness of the continuous and discrete problems are established and the a priori error analysis is performed. Then, we propose the a posteriori error analysis by using two different techniques suited to estimate the displacement error and the pressure error, respectively, both in the H{sub x}{sup 1}-norm. The classical properties of reliability and optimality are proved for the associated error estimators. Some numerical experiments using Code-Aster illustrate the theoretical results. For the un-stationary version, we first establish a stability result for the continuous problem. Then, we present an optimal a priori error analysis using elliptic projection techniques. Finally, the a posteriori error analysis is performed by using two different approaches: a direct approach and an elliptic reconstruction approach. The first is suited to estimate the pressure error in the L{sub t}{sup 2}(H{sub x}{sup 1})-norm and the second is suited to estimate the displacement error in the L{sub t}{sup {infinity}}(H{sub x}{sup 1})-norm and the pressure error in the L{sub t}{sup {infinity}}(H{sub x}{sup 1})-norm. Numerical experiments using Code-Aster complete the theoretical results. (author)

  17. A fast pointwise strategy for anisotropic wave-mode separation in TI media

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Qiancheng

    2017-08-17

    The multi-component wavefield contains both compressional and shear waves. Separating wave-modes has many applications in seismic workflows. Conventionally, anisotropic wave-mode separation is implemented by either directly filtering in the wavenumber domain or nonstationary filtering in the space domain, which are computationally expensive. These methods could be categorized into the pseudo-derivative family and only work well within Finite Difference (FD) methods. In this paper, we establish a relationship between group-velocity direction and polarity direction and propose a method, which could go beyond modeling by FD. In particular, we are interested in performing wave-mode separation in a Spectral Element Method (SEM), which is widely used for seismic wave propagation on various scales. The separation is implemented pointwise, independent of its neighbor points, suitable for running in parallel. Moreover, no correction for amplitude and phase changes caused by the derivative operator is required. We have verified our scheme using numerical examples.

  18. Analysis of the stress field in a wedge using the fast expansions with pointwise determined coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernyshov, A. D.; Goryainov, V. V.; Danshin, A. A.

    2018-03-01

    The stress problem for the elastic wedge-shaped cutter of finite dimensions with mixed boundary conditions is considered. The differential problem is reduced to the system of linear algebraic equations by applying twice the fast expansions with respect to the angular and radial coordinate. In order to determine the unknown coefficients of fast expansions, the pointwise method is utilized. The problem solution derived has explicit analytical form and it’s valid for the entire domain including its boundary. The computed profiles of the displacements and stresses in a cross-section of the cutter are provided. The stress field is investigated for various values of opening angle and cusp’s radius.

  19. A fast pointwise strategy for anisotropic wave-mode separation in TI media

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Qiancheng; Peter, Daniel; Lu, Yongming

    2017-01-01

    The multi-component wavefield contains both compressional and shear waves. Separating wave-modes has many applications in seismic workflows. Conventionally, anisotropic wave-mode separation is implemented by either directly filtering in the wavenumber domain or nonstationary filtering in the space domain, which are computationally expensive. These methods could be categorized into the pseudo-derivative family and only work well within Finite Difference (FD) methods. In this paper, we establish a relationship between group-velocity direction and polarity direction and propose a method, which could go beyond modeling by FD. In particular, we are interested in performing wave-mode separation in a Spectral Element Method (SEM), which is widely used for seismic wave propagation on various scales. The separation is implemented pointwise, independent of its neighbor points, suitable for running in parallel. Moreover, no correction for amplitude and phase changes caused by the derivative operator is required. We have verified our scheme using numerical examples.

  20. Pointwise second-order necessary optimality conditions and second-order sensitivity relations in optimal control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankowska, Hélène; Hoehener, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    This paper is devoted to pointwise second-order necessary optimality conditions for the Mayer problem arising in optimal control theory. We first show that with every optimal trajectory it is possible to associate a solution p (ṡ) of the adjoint system (as in the Pontryagin maximum principle) and a matrix solution W (ṡ) of an adjoint matrix differential equation that satisfy a second-order transversality condition and a second-order maximality condition. These conditions seem to be a natural second-order extension of the maximum principle. We then prove a Jacobson like necessary optimality condition for general control systems and measurable optimal controls that may be only ;partially singular; and may take values on the boundary of control constraints. Finally we investigate the second-order sensitivity relations along optimal trajectories involving both p (ṡ) and W (ṡ).

  1. OPTIMAL CONTROL OF A NONLINEAR COUPLED ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION HEATING SYSTEM WITH POINTWISE STATE CONSTRAINTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irwin Yousept

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available An optimal control problem arising in the context of 3D electromagnetic induction heating is investigated. The state equation is given by a quasilinear stationary heat equation coupled with a semilinear time harmonic eddy current equation. The temperature-dependent electrical conductivity and the presence of pointwise inequality state-constraints represent the main challenge of the paper. In the first part of the paper, the existence and regularity of the state are addressed. The second part of the paper deals with the analysis of the corresponding linearized equation. Some suffcient conditions are presented which guarantee thesolvability of the linearized system. The final part of the paper is concerned with the optimal control. The aim of the optimization is to find the optimal voltage such that a desired temperature can be achieved optimally. The corresponding first-order necessary optimality condition is presented.

  2. Summary - COG: A new point-wise Monte Carlo code for burnup credit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1989-01-01

    COG, a new point-wise Monte Carlo code being developed and tested at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Cray-1, solves the Boltzmann equation for the transport of neutrons, photons, and (in future versions) other particles. Techniques included in the code for modifying the random walk of particles make COG most suitable for solving deep-penetration (shielding) problems and a wide variety of criticality problems. COG is similar to a number of other computer codes used in the shielding community. Each code is a little different in its geometry input and its random-walk modification options. COG is a Monte Carlo code specifically designed for the CRAY (in 1986) to be as precise as the current state of physics knowledge. It has been extensively benchmarked and used as a shielding code at LLNL since 1986, and has recently been extended to accomplish criticality calculations. It will make an excellent tool for future shipping cask studies

  3. Maximum a posteriori reconstruction of the Patlak parametric image from sinograms in dynamic PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Guobao; Fu Lin; Qi Jinyi

    2008-01-01

    Parametric imaging using the Patlak graphical method has been widely used to analyze dynamic PET data. Conventionally a Patlak parametric image is generated by reconstructing a sequence of dynamic images first and then performing Patlak graphical analysis on the time-activity curves pixel-by-pixel. However, because it is rather difficult to model the noise distribution in reconstructed images, the spatially variant noise correlation is simply ignored in the Patlak analysis, which leads to sub-optimal results. In this paper we present a Bayesian method for reconstructing Patlak parametric images directly from raw sinogram data by incorporating the Patlak plot model into the image reconstruction procedure. A preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to find the maximum a posteriori solution. The proposed direct method is statistically more efficient than the conventional indirect approach because the Poisson noise distribution in PET data can be accurately modeled in the direct reconstruction. The computation cost of the direct method is similar to reconstruction time of two dynamic frames. Therefore, when more than two dynamic frames are used in the Patlak analysis, the direct method is faster than the conventional indirect approach. We conduct computer simulations to validate the proposed direct method. Comparisons with the conventional indirect approach show that the proposed method results in a more accurate estimate of the parametric image. The proposed method has been applied to dynamic fully 3D PET data from a microPET scanner

  4. Variable Kernel Density Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Terrell, George R.; Scott, David W.

    1992-01-01

    We investigate some of the possibilities for improvement of univariate and multivariate kernel density estimates by varying the window over the domain of estimation, pointwise and globally. Two general approaches are to vary the window width by the point of estimation and by point of the sample observation. The first possibility is shown to be of little efficacy in one variable. In particular, nearest-neighbor estimators in all versions perform poorly in one and two dimensions, but begin to b...

  5. Measuring global oil trade dependencies: An application of the point-wise mutual information method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharrazi, Ali; Fath, Brian D.

    2016-01-01

    Oil trade is one of the most vital networks in the global economy. In this paper, we analyze the 1998–2012 oil trade networks using the point-wise mutual information (PMI) method and determine the pairwise trade preferences and dependencies. Using examples of the USA's trade partners, this research demonstrates the usefulness of the PMI method as an additional methodological tool to evaluate the outcomes from countries' decisions to engage in preferred trading partners. A positive PMI value indicates trade preference where trade is larger than would be expected. For example, in 2012 the USA imported 2,548.7 kbpd despite an expected 358.5 kbpd of oil from Canada. Conversely, a negative PMI value indicates trade dis-preference where the amount of trade is smaller than what would be expected. For example, the 15-year average of annual PMI between Saudi Arabia and the U.S.A. is −0.130 and between Russia and the USA −1.596. We reflect the three primary reasons of discrepancies between actual and neutral model trade can be related to position, price, and politics. The PMI can quantify the political success or failure of trade preferences and can more accurately account temporal variation of interdependencies. - Highlights: • We analyzed global oil trade networks using the point-wise mutual information method. • We identified position, price, & politics as drivers of oil trade preference. • The PMI method is useful in research on complex trade networks and dependency theory. • A time-series analysis of PMI can track dependencies & evaluate policy decisions.

  6. Stress-induced alterations of left-right electrodermal activity coupling indexed by pointwise transinformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Světlák, M; Bob, P; Roman, R; Ježek, S; Damborská, A; Chládek, J; Shaw, D J; Kukleta, M

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we tested the hypothesis that experimental stress induces a specific change of left-right electrodermal activity (EDA) coupling pattern, as indexed by pointwise transinformation (PTI). Further, we hypothesized that this change is associated with scores on psychometric measures of the chronic stress-related psychopathology. Ninety-nine university students underwent bilateral measurement of EDA during rest and stress-inducing Stroop test and completed a battery of self-report measures of chronic stress-related psychopathology. A significant decrease in the mean PTI value was the prevalent response to the stress conditions. No association between chronic stress and PTI was found. Raw scores of psychometric measures of stress-related psychopathology had no effect on either the resting levels of PTI or the amount of stress-induced PTI change. In summary, acute stress alters the level of coupling pattern of cortico-autonomic influences on the left and right sympathetic pathways to the palmar sweat glands. Different results obtained using the PTI, EDA laterality coefficient, and skin conductance level also show that the PTI algorithm represents a new analytical approach to EDA asymmetry description.

  7. Some considerations to the failure analysis of a pointwise attached steel liner membrane under constraint load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchhardt, F.; Brandl, P.

    1981-01-01

    In the application of reinforced or prestressed concrete reactor containments, the safety enclosure will be obtained through a steel liner membrane, which is attached pointwise to the interior concrete surface. It is the objective and aim of this study to analyse the overall structural behaviour of the bonded system consisting of concrete containment, studs, and steel liner - especially under the aspect of extreme load and deformation conditions. The parametric analysis is carried out on the basis of the geometric length/depth ratio l/t = 12 of a single liner field. In order to reduce the considerable computational effort to a minimum, it is necessary to decouple the overall system in its structural components, i.e., at first an imperfect predeflected 'buckling' field and the residual 'plane' liner field are considered separately. A further reduction enables the use of stud anchor characteristics which are based on experiments. Three-dimensional analyses are performed for the single 'buckling' field to obtain specific load-displacement functions; the residual plane system is considered with two- as well as one-dimensional models. For the comprehensive parametric evalution of the overall system behaviour, a linear model is assumed to which these load-displacement functions are applied. Constraint temperatures are introduced as a unit scale - up to failure of the overall system; hereby partial structural failure might lead to temporary relief. (orig.)

  8. A-Posteriori Detection of Sensor Infrastructure Errors in Correlated Sensor Data and Business Workflows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wombacher, Andreas; Rinderle-Ma, Stefanie; Toumani, Farouk; Wolf, Karsten

    Some physical objects are influenced by business workflows and are observed by sensors. Since both sensor infrastructures and business workflows must deal with imprecise information, the correlation of sensor data and business workflow data related to physical objects might be used a-posteriori to

  9. A-Posteriori Detection of Sensor Infrastructure Errors in Correlated Sensor Data and Business Workflows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wombacher, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Sensor data can be interpreted as a view on physical objects effected by business processes. Since both sensor infrastructures and business workflows must deal with imprecise information, the correlation of sensor data and business workflow data might be used a-posteriori to determine the source of

  10. A posteriori stereotype activation: The preservation of stereotypes through memory distortion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knippenberg, A. van; Dijksterhuis, A.

    1996-01-01

    Four experiments investigated memory for stereotype-consistent and stereotype-inconsistent information after a posteriori stereotype activation. In Experiment 1 it was established that, in comparison with a no stereotype control condition, recall of stereotype-inconsistent behaviors of group members

  11. Pointwise mutual information quantifies intratumor heterogeneity in tissue sections labeled with multiple fluorescent biomarkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel M Spagnolo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Measures of spatial intratumor heterogeneity are potentially important diagnostic biomarkers for cancer progression, proliferation, and response to therapy. Spatial relationships among cells including cancer and stromal cells in the tumor microenvironment (TME are key contributors to heterogeneity. Methods: We demonstrate how to quantify spatial heterogeneity from immunofluorescence pathology samples, using a set of 3 basic breast cancer biomarkers as a test case. We learn a set of dominant biomarker intensity patterns and map the spatial distribution of the biomarker patterns with a network. We then describe the pairwise association statistics for each pattern within the network using pointwise mutual information (PMI and visually represent heterogeneity with a two-dimensional map. Results: We found a salient set of 8 biomarker patterns to describe cellular phenotypes from a tissue microarray cohort containing 4 different breast cancer subtypes. After computing PMI for each pair of biomarker patterns in each patient and tumor replicate, we visualize the interactions that contribute to the resulting association statistics. Then, we demonstrate the potential for using PMI as a diagnostic biomarker, by comparing PMI maps and heterogeneity scores from patients across the 4 different cancer subtypes. Estrogen receptor positive invasive lobular carcinoma patient, AL13-6, exhibited the highest heterogeneity score among those tested, while estrogen receptor negative invasive ductal carcinoma patient, AL13-14, exhibited the lowest heterogeneity score. Conclusions: This paper presents an approach for describing intratumor heterogeneity, in a quantitative fashion (via PMI, which departs from the purely qualitative approaches currently used in the clinic. PMI is generalizable to highly multiplexed/hyperplexed immunofluorescence images, as well as spatial data from complementary in situ methods including FISSEQ and CyTOF, sampling many different

  12. On the Schauder estimates of solutions to parabolic equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han Qing

    1998-01-01

    This paper gives a priori estimates on asymptotic polynomials of solutions to parabolic differential equations at any points. This leads to a pointwise version of Schauder estimates. The result improves the classical Schauder estimates in a way that the estimates of solutions and their derivatives at one point depend on the coefficient and nonhomogeneous terms at this particular point

  13. Automatic simplification of systems of reaction-diffusion equations by a posteriori analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maybank, Philip J; Whiteley, Jonathan P

    2014-02-01

    Many mathematical models in biology and physiology are represented by systems of nonlinear differential equations. In recent years these models have become increasingly complex in order to explain the enormous volume of data now available. A key role of modellers is to determine which components of the model have the greatest effect on a given observed behaviour. An approach for automatically fulfilling this role, based on a posteriori analysis, has recently been developed for nonlinear initial value ordinary differential equations [J.P. Whiteley, Model reduction using a posteriori analysis, Math. Biosci. 225 (2010) 44-52]. In this paper we extend this model reduction technique for application to both steady-state and time-dependent nonlinear reaction-diffusion systems. Exemplar problems drawn from biology are used to demonstrate the applicability of the technique. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. B-Spline potential function for maximum a-posteriori image reconstruction in fluorescence microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilpa Dilipkumar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available An iterative image reconstruction technique employing B-Spline potential function in a Bayesian framework is proposed for fluorescence microscopy images. B-splines are piecewise polynomials with smooth transition, compact support and are the shortest polynomial splines. Incorporation of the B-spline potential function in the maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction technique resulted in improved contrast, enhanced resolution and substantial background reduction. The proposed technique is validated on simulated data as well as on the images acquired from fluorescence microscopes (widefield, confocal laser scanning fluorescence and super-resolution 4Pi microscopy. A comparative study of the proposed technique with the state-of-art maximum likelihood (ML and maximum-a-posteriori (MAP with quadratic potential function shows its superiority over the others. B-Spline MAP technique can find applications in several imaging modalities of fluorescence microscopy like selective plane illumination microscopy, localization microscopy and STED.

  15. Sensing Slow Mobility and Interesting Locations for Lombardy Region (italy): a Case Study Using Pointwise Geolocated Open Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovelli, M. A.; Oxoli, D.; Zurbarán, M. A.

    2016-06-01

    During the past years Web 2.0 technologies have caused the emergence of platforms where users can share data related to their activities which in some cases are then publicly released with open licenses. Popular categories for this include community platforms where users can upload GPS tracks collected during slow travel activities (e.g. hiking, biking and horse riding) and platforms where users share their geolocated photos. However, due to the high heterogeneity of the information available on the Web, the sole use of these user-generated contents makes it an ambitious challenge to understand slow mobility flows as well as to detect the most visited locations in a region. Exploiting the available data on community sharing websites allows to collect near real-time open data streams and enables rigorous spatial-temporal analysis. This work presents an approach for collecting, unifying and analysing pointwise geolocated open data available from different sources with the aim of identifying the main locations and destinations of slow mobility activities. For this purpose, we collected pointwise open data from the Wikiloc platform, Twitter, Flickr and Foursquare. The analysis was confined to the data uploaded in Lombardy Region (Northern Italy) - corresponding to millions of pointwise data. Collected data was processed through the use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) in order to organize them into a suitable database. This allowed to run statistical analyses on data distribution in both time and space by enabling the detection of users' slow mobility preferences as well as places of interest at a regional scale.

  16. SENSING SLOW MOBILITY AND INTERESTING LOCATIONS FOR LOMBARDY REGION (ITALY: A CASE STUDY USING POINTWISE GEOLOCATED OPEN DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Brovelli

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available During the past years Web 2.0 technologies have caused the emergence of platforms where users can share data related to their activities which in some cases are then publicly released with open licenses. Popular categories for this include community platforms where users can upload GPS tracks collected during slow travel activities (e.g. hiking, biking and horse riding and platforms where users share their geolocated photos. However, due to the high heterogeneity of the information available on the Web, the sole use of these user-generated contents makes it an ambitious challenge to understand slow mobility flows as well as to detect the most visited locations in a region. Exploiting the available data on community sharing websites allows to collect near real-time open data streams and enables rigorous spatial-temporal analysis. This work presents an approach for collecting, unifying and analysing pointwise geolocated open data available from different sources with the aim of identifying the main locations and destinations of slow mobility activities. For this purpose, we collected pointwise open data from the Wikiloc platform, Twitter, Flickr and Foursquare. The analysis was confined to the data uploaded in Lombardy Region (Northern Italy – corresponding to millions of pointwise data. Collected data was processed through the use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS in order to organize them into a suitable database. This allowed to run statistical analyses on data distribution in both time and space by enabling the detection of users’ slow mobility preferences as well as places of interest at a regional scale.

  17. [Methods of a posteriori identification of food patterns in Brazilian children: a systematic review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Carolina Abreu de; Fonsêca, Poliana Cristina de Almeida; Nobre, Luciana Neri; Priore, Silvia Eloiza; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to provide guidance for identifying dietary patterns using the a posteriori approach, and analyze the methodological aspects of the studies conducted in Brazil that identified the dietary patterns of children. Articles were selected from the Latin American and Caribbean Literature on Health Sciences, Scientific Electronic Library Online and Pubmed databases. The key words were: Dietary pattern; Food pattern; Principal Components Analysis; Factor analysis; Cluster analysis; Reduced rank regression. We included studies that identified dietary patterns of children using the a posteriori approach. Seven studies published between 2007 and 2014 were selected, six of which were cross-sectional and one cohort, Five studies used the food frequency questionnaire for dietary assessment; one used a 24-hour dietary recall and the other a food list. The method of exploratory approach used in most publications was principal components factor analysis, followed by cluster analysis. The sample size of the studies ranged from 232 to 4231, the values of the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test from 0.524 to 0.873, and Cronbach's alpha from 0.51 to 0.69. Few Brazilian studies identified dietary patterns of children using the a posteriori approach and principal components factor analysis was the technique most used.

  18. Computable Error Estimates for Finite Element Approximations of Elliptic Partial Differential Equations with Rough Stochastic Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hall, Eric Joseph; Hoel, Hå kon; Sandberg, Mattias; Szepessy, Anders; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    posteriori error estimates fail to capture. We propose goal-oriented estimates, based on local error indicators, for the pathwise Galerkin and expected quadrature errors committed in standard, continuous, piecewise linear finite element approximations

  19. Reliable methods for computer simulation error control and a posteriori estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Neittaanmäki, P

    2004-01-01

    Recent decades have seen a very rapid success in developing numerical methods based on explicit control over approximation errors. It may be said that nowadays a new direction is forming in numerical analysis, the main goal of which is to develop methods ofreliable computations. In general, a reliable numerical method must solve two basic problems: (a) generate a sequence of approximations that converges to a solution and (b) verify the accuracy of these approximations. A computer code for such a method must consist of two respective blocks: solver and checker.In this book, we are chie

  20. An A Posteriori Error Estimate for Symplectic Euler Approximation of Optimal Control Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Karlsson, Peer Jesper; Larsson, Stig; Sandberg, Mattias; Szepessy, Anders; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    This work focuses on numerical solutions of optimal control problems. A time discretization error representation is derived for the approximation of the associated value function. It concerns Symplectic Euler solutions of the Hamiltonian system

  1. Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for CFD Calculations: Theory and Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    Simulation codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation resulting in numerical error. Some examples include, numerical methods utilizing grids and finite-dimensional basis functions, particle methods using a finite number of particles. These same simulation codes also often contain sources of uncertainty, for example, uncertain parameters and fields associated with the imposition of initial and boundary data,uncertain physical model parameters such as chemical reaction rates, mixture model parameters, material property parameters, etc.

  2. An A Posteriori Error Estimate for Symplectic Euler Approximation of Optimal Control Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Karlsson, Peer Jesper

    2015-01-07

    This work focuses on numerical solutions of optimal control problems. A time discretization error representation is derived for the approximation of the associated value function. It concerns Symplectic Euler solutions of the Hamiltonian system connected with the optimal control problem. The error representation has a leading order term consisting of an error density that is computable from Symplectic Euler solutions. Under an assumption of the pathwise convergence of the approximate dual function as the maximum time step goes to zero, we prove that the remainder is of higher order than the leading error density part in the error representation. With the error representation, it is possible to perform adaptive time stepping. We apply an adaptive algorithm originally developed for ordinary differential equations.

  3. Reconstruction algorithm in compressed sensing based on maximum a posteriori estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Koujin; Kabashima, Yoshiyuki

    2013-01-01

    We propose a systematic method for constructing a sparse data reconstruction algorithm in compressed sensing at a relatively low computational cost for general observation matrix. It is known that the cost of ℓ 1 -norm minimization using a standard linear programming algorithm is O(N 3 ). We show that this cost can be reduced to O(N 2 ) by applying the approach of posterior maximization. Furthermore, in principle, the algorithm from our approach is expected to achieve the widest successful reconstruction region, which is evaluated from theoretical argument. We also discuss the relation between the belief propagation-based reconstruction algorithm introduced in preceding works and our approach

  4. Error estimation and adaptivity for incompressible hyperelasticity

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, J.P.

    2014-04-30

    SUMMARY: A Galerkin FEM is developed for nonlinear, incompressible (hyper) elasticity that takes account of nonlinearities in both the strain tensor and the relationship between the strain tensor and the stress tensor. By using suitably defined linearised dual problems with appropriate boundary conditions, a posteriori error estimates are then derived for both linear functionals of the solution and linear functionals of the stress on a boundary, where Dirichlet boundary conditions are applied. A second, higher order method for calculating a linear functional of the stress on a Dirichlet boundary is also presented together with an a posteriori error estimator for this approach. An implementation for a 2D model problem with known solution, where the entries of the strain tensor exhibit large, rapid variations, demonstrates the accuracy and sharpness of the error estimators. Finally, using a selection of model problems, the a posteriori error estimate is shown to provide a basis for effective mesh adaptivity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Estimation of Motion Vector Fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to the estimation of 2-D motion vector fields from time varying image sequences. We use a piecewise smooth model based on coupled vector/binary Markov random fields. We find the maximum a posteriori solution by simulated annealing. The algorithm generate sample...... fields by means of stochastic relaxation implemented via the Gibbs sampler....

  6. Moderate deviations principles for the kernel estimator of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. The aim of this paper is to provide pointwise and uniform moderate deviations principles for the kernel estimator of a nonrandom regression function. Moreover, we give an application of these moderate deviations principles to the construction of condence regions for the regression function. Resume. L'objectif de ...

  7. Detection of progression of glaucomatous visual field damage using the point-wise method with the binomial test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakawa, Ayako; Murata, Hiroshi; Hirasawa, Hiroyo; Mayama, Chihiro; Asaoka, Ryo

    2013-01-01

    To compare the performance of newly proposed point-wise linear regression (PLR) with the binomial test (binomial PLR) against mean deviation (MD) trend analysis and permutation analyses of PLR (PoPLR), in detecting global visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma. 15 VFs (Humphrey Field Analyzer, SITA standard, 24-2) were collected from 96 eyes of 59 open angle glaucoma patients (6.0 ± 1.5 [mean ± standard deviation] years). Using the total deviation of each point on the 2(nd) to 16(th) VFs (VF2-16), linear regression analysis was carried out. The numbers of VF test points with a significant trend at various probability levels (pbinomial test (one-side). A VF series was defined as "significant" if the median p-value from the binomial test was binomial PLR method (0.14 to 0.86) was significantly higher than MD trend analysis (0.04 to 0.89) and PoPLR (0.09 to 0.93). The PIS of the proposed method (0.0 to 0.17) was significantly lower than the MD approach (0.0 to 0.67) and PoPLR (0.07 to 0.33). The PBNS of the three approaches were not significantly different. The binomial BLR method gives more consistent results than MD trend analysis and PoPLR, hence it will be helpful as a tool to 'flag' possible VF deterioration.

  8. Oscillation estimates relative to p-homogeneous forms and Kato measures data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Biroli

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available We state pointwise estimate for the positive subsolutions associated to a p-homogeneous form and nonnegative Radon measures data. As a by-product we establish an oscillation’s estimate for the solutions relative to Kato measures data.

  9. Error Estimation and Accuracy Improvements in Nodal Transport Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamonsky, O.M.

    2000-01-01

    The accuracy of the solutions produced by the Discrete Ordinates neutron transport nodal methods is analyzed.The obtained new numerical methodologies increase the accuracy of the analyzed scheems and give a POSTERIORI error estimators. The accuracy improvement is obtained with new equations that make the numerical procedure free of truncation errors and proposing spatial reconstructions of the angular fluxes that are more accurate than those used until present. An a POSTERIORI error estimator is rigurously obtained for one dimensional systems that, in certain type of problems, allows to quantify the accuracy of the solutions. From comparisons with the one dimensional results, an a POSTERIORI error estimator is also obtained for multidimensional systems. LOCAL indicators, which quantify the spatial distribution of the errors, are obtained by the decomposition of the menctioned estimators. This makes the proposed methodology suitable to perform adaptive calculations. Some numerical examples are presented to validate the theoretical developements and to illustrate the ranges where the proposed approximations are valid

  10. From cutting-edge pointwise cross-section to groupwise reaction rate: A primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sublet, Jean-Christophe; Fleming, Michael; Gilbert, Mark R.

    2017-09-01

    The nuclear research and development community has a history of using both integral and differential experiments to support accurate lattice-reactor, nuclear reactor criticality and shielding simulations, as well as verification and validation efforts of cross sections and emitted particle spectra. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the neutron spectrum in its entirety, with correct propagation of uncertainties and standard deviations derived from Monte Carlo simulations, to the local and total uncertainty in the simulated reactions rates (RRs), which usually only apply to one application at a time. This paper identifies deficiencies in the traditional treatment, and discusses correct handling of the RR uncertainty quantification and propagation, including details of the cross section components in the RR uncertainty estimates, which are verified for relevant applications. The methodology that rigorously captures the spectral shift and cross section contributions to the uncertainty in the RR are discussed with quantified examples that demonstrate the importance of the proper treatment of the spectrum profile and cross section contributions to the uncertainty in the RR and subsequent response functions. The recently developed inventory code FISPACT-II, when connected to the processed nuclear data libraries TENDL-2015, ENDF/B-VII.1, JENDL-4.0u or JEFF-3.2, forms an enhanced multi-physics platform providing a wide variety of advanced simulation methods for modelling activation, transmutation, burnup protocols and simulating radiation damage sources terms. The system has extended cutting-edge nuclear data forms, uncertainty quantification and propagation methods, which have been the subject of recent integral and differential, fission, fusion and accelerators validation efforts. The simulation system is used to accurately and predictively probe, understand and underpin a modern and sustainable understanding

  11. From cutting-edge pointwise cross-section to groupwise reaction rate: A primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sublet Jean-Christophe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The nuclear research and development community has a history of using both integral and differential experiments to support accurate lattice-reactor, nuclear reactor criticality and shielding simulations, as well as verification and validation efforts of cross sections and emitted particle spectra. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the neutron spectrum in its entirety, with correct propagation of uncertainties and standard deviations derived from Monte Carlo simulations, to the local and total uncertainty in the simulated reactions rates (RRs, which usually only apply to one application at a time. This paper identifies deficiencies in the traditional treatment, and discusses correct handling of the RR uncertainty quantification and propagation, including details of the cross section components in the RR uncertainty estimates, which are verified for relevant applications. The methodology that rigorously captures the spectral shift and cross section contributions to the uncertainty in the RR are discussed with quantified examples that demonstrate the importance of the proper treatment of the spectrum profile and cross section contributions to the uncertainty in the RR and subsequent response functions. The recently developed inventory code FISPACT-II, when connected to the processed nuclear data libraries TENDL-2015, ENDF/B-VII.1, JENDL-4.0u or JEFF-3.2, forms an enhanced multi-physics platform providing a wide variety of advanced simulation methods for modelling activation, transmutation, burnup protocols and simulating radiation damage sources terms. The system has extended cutting-edge nuclear data forms, uncertainty quantification and propagation methods, which have been the subject of recent integral and differential, fission, fusion and accelerators validation efforts. The simulation system is used to accurately and predictively probe, understand and underpin a modern and

  12. «A posteriori» Determination of the Mixing Proportions of Concrete with Calcareous Aggregates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Von Heinz Pisters, -

    1972-09-01

    Full Text Available Not availableCuando en una obra de hormigón han de examinarse a posteriori la proporción de componentes del hormigón endurecido se precisa, frecuentemente, la determinación del contenido de cemento. Los procedimientos seguidos con este fin parten de un tratamiento del hormigón con ácido clorhídrico. En él caso de que el hormigón contenga un árido soluble en él ácido y no se disponga de él por separado, se describe detalladamente un procedimiento de identificación con una corrección sobre el contenido en dióxido de carbono del hormigón. Con arreglo a las determinaciones realizadas de este modo con él hormigón, será también posible en estos casos determinar el contenido de cemento con una precisión de, cuando menos, ± 10%.

  13. Time-varying block codes for synchronisation errors: maximum a posteriori decoder and practical issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann A. Briffa

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the authors consider time-varying block (TVB codes, which generalise a number of previous synchronisation error-correcting codes. They also consider various practical issues related to maximum a posteriori (MAP decoding of these codes. Specifically, they give an expression for the expected distribution of drift between transmitter and receiver because of synchronisation errors. They determine an appropriate choice for state space limits based on the drift probability distribution. In turn, they obtain an expression for the decoder complexity under given channel conditions in terms of the state space limits used. For a given state space, they also give a number of optimisations that reduce the algorithm complexity with no further loss of decoder performance. They also show how the MAP decoder can be used in the absence of known frame boundaries, and demonstrate that an appropriate choice of decoder parameters allows the decoder to approach the performance when frame boundaries are known, at the expense of some increase in complexity. Finally, they express some existing constructions as TVB codes, comparing performance with published results and showing that improved performance is possible by taking advantage of the flexibility of TVB codes.

  14. An a posteriori measure of network modularity [v3; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/2ju

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothée Poisot

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the modularity of networks, and how it deviates from random expectations, important to understand their structure and emerging properties. Several measures exist to assess modularity, which when applied to the same network, can return both different modularity values (i.e. different estimates of how modular the network is and different module compositions (i.e. different groups of species forming said modules. More importantly, as each optimization method uses a different optimization criterion, there is a need to have an a posteriori measure serving as an equivalent of a goodness-of-fit. In this article, I propose such a measure of modularity, which is simply defined as the ratio of interactions established between members of the same modules vs. members of different modules. I apply this measure to a large dataset of 290 ecological networks representing host–parasite (bipartite and predator–prey (unipartite interactions, to show how the results are easy to interpret and present especially to a broad audience not familiar with modularity analyses, but still can reveal new features about modularity and the ways to measure it.

  15. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

  16. CSRL-V: processed ENDF/B-V 227-neutron-group and pointwise cross-section libraries for criticality safety, reactor, and shielding studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, W.E. III; Diggs, B.R.; Petrie, L.M.; Webster, C.C.; Westfall, R.M.

    1982-01-01

    A P 3 227-neutron-group cross-section library has been processed for the subsequent generation of problem-dependent fine- or broad-group cross sections for a broad range of applications, including shipping cask calculations, general criticality safety analyses, and reactor core and shielding analyses. The energy group structure covers the range 10 -5 eV - 20 MeV, including 79 thermal groups below 3 eV. The 129-material library includes processed data for all materials in the ENDF/B-V General Purpose File, several data sets prepared from LENDL data, hydrogen with water- and polyethyelene-bound thermal kernels, deuterium with C 2 O-bound thermal kernels, carbon with a graphite thermal kernel, a special 1/V data set, and a dose factor data set. The library, which is in AMPX master format, is designated CSRL-V (Criticality Safety Reference Library based on ENDF/B-V data). Also included in CSRL-V is a pointwise total, fission, elastic scattering, and (n,γ) cross-section library containing data sets for all ENDF/B-V resonance materials. Data in the pointwise library were processed with the infinite dilute approximation at a temperature of 296 0 K

  17. A point-wise fiber Bragg grating displacement sensing system and its application for active vibration suppression of a smart cantilever beam subjected to multiple impact loadings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, Kuo-Chih; Ma, Chien-Ching; Liao, Heng-Tseng

    2012-01-01

    In this work, active vibration suppression of a smart cantilever beam subjected to disturbances from multiple impact loadings is investigated with a point-wise fiber Bragg grating (FBG) displacement sensing system. An FBG demodulator is employed in the proposed fiber sensing system to dynamically demodulate the responses obtained by the FBG displacement sensor with high sensitivity. To investigate the ability of the proposed FBG displacement sensor as a feedback sensor, velocity feedback control and delay control are employed to suppress the vibrations of the first three bending modes of the smart cantilever beam. To improve the control performance for the first bending mode when the cantilever beam is subjected to an impact loading, we improve the conventional velocity feedback controller by tuning the control gain online with the aid of information from a higher vibration mode. Finally, active control of vibrations induced by multiple impact loadings due to a plastic ball is performed with the improved velocity feedback control. The experimental results show that active vibration control of smart structures subjected to disturbances such as impact loadings can be achieved by employing the proposed FBG sensing system to feed back out-of-plane point-wise displacement responses with high sensitivity. (paper)

  18. A note on the conditional density estimate in single functional index model

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional density of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked with a single-index structure. We establish the pointwise and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the kernel estimate of this model. As an application, we show how our result can be applied in the prediction problem via the conditional mode estimate. Finally, the estimation of the funct...

  19. Bin mode estimation methods for Compton camera imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikeda, S.; Odaka, H.; Uemura, M.; Takahashi, T.; Watanabe, S.; Takeda, S.

    2014-01-01

    We study the image reconstruction problem of a Compton camera which consists of semiconductor detectors. The image reconstruction is formulated as a statistical estimation problem. We employ a bin-mode estimation (BME) and extend an existing framework to a Compton camera with multiple scatterers and absorbers. Two estimation algorithms are proposed: an accelerated EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a modified EM algorithm for the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. Numerical simulations demonstrate the potential of the proposed methods

  20. A posteriori registration and subtraction of periapical radiographs for the evaluation of external apical root resorption after orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreich, Eliane Maria; Chibinski, Ana Cláudia; Coelho, Ulisses; Wambier, Letícia Stadler; Zedebski, Rosário de Arruda Moura; de Moraes, Mari Eli Leonelli; de Moraes, Luiz Cesar

    2016-03-01

    This study employed a posteriori registration and subtraction of radiographic images to quantify the apical root resorption in maxillary permanent central incisors after orthodontic treatment, and assessed whether the external apical root resorption (EARR) was related to a range of parameters involved in the treatment. A sample of 79 patients (mean age, 13.5±2.2 years) with no history of trauma or endodontic treatment of the maxillary permanent central incisors was selected. Periapical radiographs taken before and after orthodontic treatment were digitized and imported to the Regeemy software. Based on an analysis of the posttreatment radiographs, the length of the incisors was measured using Image J software. The mean EARR was described in pixels and relative root resorption (%). The patient's age and gender, tooth extraction, use of elastics, and treatment duration were evaluated to identify possible correlations with EARR. The mean EARR observed was 15.44±12.1 pixels (5.1% resorption). No differences in the mean EARR were observed according to patient characteristics (gender, age) or treatment parameters (use of elastics, treatment duration). The only parameter that influenced the mean EARR of a patient was the need for tooth extraction. A posteriori registration and subtraction of periapical radiographs was a suitable method to quantify EARR after orthodontic treatment, and the need for tooth extraction increased the extent of root resorption after orthodontic treatment.

  1. A Novel A Posteriori Investigation of Scalar Flux Models for Passive Scalar Dispersion in Compressible Boundary Layer Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braman, Kalen; Raman, Venkat

    2011-11-01

    A novel direct numerical simulation (DNS) based a posteriori technique has been developed to investigate scalar transport modeling error. The methodology is used to test Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulent scalar flux models for compressible boundary layer flows. Time-averaged DNS velocity and turbulence fields provide the information necessary to evolve the time-averaged scalar transport equation without requiring the use of turbulence modeling. With this technique, passive dispersion of a scalar from a boundary layer surface in a supersonic flow is studied with scalar flux modeling error isolated from any flowfield modeling errors. Several different scalar flux models are used. It is seen that the simple gradient diffusion model overpredicts scalar dispersion, while anisotropic scalar flux models underpredict dispersion. Further, the use of more complex models does not necessarily guarantee an increase in predictive accuracy, indicating that key physics is missing from existing models. Using comparisons of both a priori and a posteriori scalar flux evaluations with DNS data, the main modeling shortcomings are identified. Results will be presented for different boundary layer conditions.

  2. The output least-squares approach to estimating Lamé moduli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gockenbach, Mark S.

    2007-12-01

    The Lamé moduli of a heterogeneous, isotropic, planar membrane can be estimated by observing the displacement of the membrane under a known edge traction, and choosing estimates of the moduli that best predict the observed displacement under a finite-element simulation. This algorithm converges to the exact moduli given pointwise measurements of the displacement on an increasingly fine mesh. The error estimates that prove this convergence also show the instability of the inverse problem.

  3. Allowing for MSD prevention during facilities planning for a public service: an a posteriori analysis of 10 library design projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellemare, Marie; Trudel, Louis; Ledoux, Elise; Montreuil, Sylvie; Marier, Micheline; Laberge, Marie; Vincent, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    Research was conducted to identify an ergonomics-based intervention model designed to factor in musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) prevention when library projects are being designed. The first stage of the research involved an a posteriori analysis of 10 recent redesign projects. The purpose of the analysis was to document perceptions about the attention given to MSD prevention measures over the course of a project on the part of 2 categories of employees: librarians responsible for such projects and personnel working in the libraries before and after changes. Subjects were interviewed in focus groups. Outcomes of the analysis can guide our ergonomic assessment of current situations and contribute to a better understanding of the way inclusion or improvement of prevention measures can support the workplace design process.

  4. Improving long-range dispersion predictions with ETEX real-time and a-posteriori model evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desiato, F.

    1997-01-01

    The Italian environmental Protection Agency (ANPA), which is responsible for the evaluation of the consequences of accidental releases into the atmosphere, has participated to both the real-time (phase-1) and a-posteriori (phase-2) ETEX model evaluations. The double benchmark actually constituted an invaluable experience for better understanding the skill and limits of the present long-range dispersion modelling capabilities. In particular, the strong difference between phase-1 and phase-2 model performance emphasised the opportunity to modify, improve or tune a number of specific aspects of the overall simulation. ETEX model runs were carried out with the Lagrangian particle model APOLLO. The meteorological input was constituted by ECMWF fields. Three-hourly average concentrations paired in space and time and time-integrated concentrations were used in the evaluation of the results, based on a set of statistical indexes and concentration contour lines and scatter diagrams

  5. Active Contour Driven by Local Region Statistics and Maximum A Posteriori Probability for Medical Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel active contour model in a variational level set formulation for simultaneous segmentation and bias field estimation of medical images. An energy function is formulated based on improved Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD with likelihood ratio. According to the additive model of images with intensity inhomogeneity, we characterize the statistics of image intensities belonging to each different object in local regions as Gaussian distributions with different means and variances. Then, we use the Gaussian distribution with bias field as a local region descriptor in level set formulation for segmentation and bias field correction of the images with inhomogeneous intensities. Therefore, image segmentation and bias field estimation are simultaneously achieved by minimizing the level set formulation. Experimental results demonstrate desirable performance of the proposed method for different medical images with weak boundaries and noise.

  6. A modal-based approach to the nonlinear vibration of strings against a unilateral obstacle: Simulations and experiments in the pointwise case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issanchou, Clara; Bilbao, Stefan; Le Carrou, Jean-Loïc; Touzé, Cyril; Doaré, Olivier

    2017-04-01

    This article is concerned with the vibration of a stiff linear string in the presence of a rigid obstacle. A numerical method for unilateral and arbitrary-shaped obstacles is developed, based on a modal approach in order to take into account the frequency dependence of losses in strings. The contact force of the barrier interaction is treated using a penalty approach, while a conservative scheme is derived for time integration, in order to ensure long-term numerical stability. In this way, the linear behaviour of the string when not in contact with the barrier can be controlled via a mode by mode fitting, so that the model is particularly well suited for comparisons with experiments. An experimental configuration is used with a point obstacle either centered or near an extremity of the string. In this latter case, such a pointwise obstruction approximates the end condition found in the tanpura, an Indian stringed instrument. The second polarisation of the string is also analysed and included in the model. Numerical results are compared against experiments, showing good accuracy over a long time scale.

  7. Estimation of Multiple Point Sources for Linear Fractional Order Systems Using Modulating Functions

    KAUST Repository

    Belkhatir, Zehor

    2017-06-28

    This paper proposes an estimation algorithm for the characterization of multiple point inputs for linear fractional order systems. First, using polynomial modulating functions method and a suitable change of variables the problem of estimating the locations and the amplitudes of a multi-pointwise input is decoupled into two algebraic systems of equations. The first system is nonlinear and solves for the time locations iteratively, whereas the second system is linear and solves for the input’s amplitudes. Second, closed form formulas for both the time location and the amplitude are provided in the particular case of single point input. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the performance of the proposed technique in both noise-free and noisy cases. The joint estimation of pointwise input and fractional differentiation orders is also presented. Furthermore, a discussion on the performance of the proposed algorithm is provided.

  8. Error Estimation and Accuracy Improvements in Nodal Transport Methods; Estimacion de Errores y Aumento de la Precision en Metodos Nodales de Transporte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamonsky, O M [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, Centro Atomico Bariloche (Argentina)

    2000-07-01

    The accuracy of the solutions produced by the Discrete Ordinates neutron transport nodal methods is analyzed.The obtained new numerical methodologies increase the accuracy of the analyzed scheems and give a POSTERIORI error estimators. The accuracy improvement is obtained with new equations that make the numerical procedure free of truncation errors and proposing spatial reconstructions of the angular fluxes that are more accurate than those used until present. An a POSTERIORI error estimator is rigurously obtained for one dimensional systems that, in certain type of problems, allows to quantify the accuracy of the solutions. From comparisons with the one dimensional results, an a POSTERIORI error estimator is also obtained for multidimensional systems. LOCAL indicators, which quantify the spatial distribution of the errors, are obtained by the decomposition of the menctioned estimators. This makes the proposed methodology suitable to perform adaptive calculations. Some numerical examples are presented to validate the theoretical developements and to illustrate the ranges where the proposed approximations are valid.

  9. From point-wise stress data to a continuous description of the 3D crustal in situ stress state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidbach, O.; Ziegler, M.; Reiter, K.; Hergert, T.

    2017-12-01

    The in situ stress is a key parameter for the safe and sustainable management of geo-reservoirs or storage of waste and energy in deep geological repositories. It is also an essential initial condition for thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models that investigate man-made induced processes e.g. seismicity due to fluid injection/extraction, reservoir depletion or storage of heat producing high-level radioactive waste. Without a reasonable assumption on the initial stress condition it is not possible to assess if a man-made process is pushing the system into a critical state or not. However, modelling the initial 3D stress state on reservoir scale is challenging since data are hardly available before drilling in the area of interest. This is in particular the case for the stress magnitude data which are a prerequisite for a reliable model calibration. Here, we present a multi-stage 3D geomechani­cal-numerical model approach to estimate for a reservoir-scale volume the 3D in situ stress state. First, we set up a large-scale model which is calibrated by stress data and use the modelled stress field subsequently to calibrate a small-scale model located within the large-scale model. The local model contains a significantly higher resolution representation of the subsurface geometry around boreholes of a projected geothermal power plant. This approach incorporates two models and is an alternative to the required trade-off between resolution, computational cost and calibration data which is inevitable for a single model; an extension to a three-stage approach would be straight forward. We exemplify the two-stage approach for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. The results of the reservoir-scale model are presented in terms of values for slip tendency as a measure for the criticality of fault reactivation. The model results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing

  10. A Posteriori Analysis of Adaptive Multiscale Operator Decomposition Methods for Multiphysics Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald Estep; Michael Holst; Simon Tavener

    2010-02-08

    This project was concerned with the accurate computational error estimation for numerical solutions of multiphysics, multiscale systems that couple different physical processes acting across a large range of scales relevant to the interests of the DOE. Multiscale, multiphysics models are characterized by intimate interactions between different physics across a wide range of scales. This poses significant computational challenges addressed by the proposal, including: (1) Accurate and efficient computation; (2) Complex stability; and (3) Linking different physics. The research in this project focused on Multiscale Operator Decomposition methods for solving multiphysics problems. The general approach is to decompose a multiphysics problem into components involving simpler physics over a relatively limited range of scales, and then to seek the solution of the entire system through some sort of iterative procedure involving solutions of the individual components. MOD is a very widely used technique for solving multiphysics, multiscale problems; it is heavily used throughout the DOE computational landscape. This project made a major advance in the analysis of the solution of multiscale, multiphysics problems.

  11. A super-resolution approach for uncertainty estimation of PIV measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sciacchitano, A.; Wieneke, B.; Scarano, F.

    2012-01-01

    A super-resolution approach is proposed for the a posteriori uncertainty estimation of PIV measurements. The measured velocity field is employed to determine the displacement of individual particle images. A disparity set is built from the residual distance between paired particle images of

  12. Padrão alimentar de mulheres com câncer de mama: um estudo a posteriori

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Sedó Sarkis

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Identificar o padrão alimentar a posteriori de mulheres com câncer de mama. Métodos: Estudo observacional, transversal e analítico. Foram avaliadas 100 mulheres com câncer de mama submetidas à quimioterapia / radioterapia, atendidas em um centro de câncer na cidade de Fortaleza, de Julho-Dezembro de 2012. Os dados clínicos, socioeconômicos e antropométricos foram analisados. Para avaliação do consumo foi utilizado um QFA validado, e o consumo diário de cada alimento foi definido em gramas. Então eles foram agrupados de acordo com sua composição nutricional, seguindo a pirâmide alimentar adaptada à população brasileira, em 10 grupos de alimentos. Resultados: Idade média 50,9 anos, com prevalência de carcinoma ductal (83% em estágio III (60%. A média do IMC indica excesso de peso (28,3 kg/m2 e a circunferência da cintura estava acima do recomendado (98,6 cm. Nós identificamos quatro componentes alimentares e 21% da variância da dieta foi explicado pelo componente alimentar 1 (Risk, com a matriz composta por carne vermelha e processada, óleos e gorduras e cereais. Conclusão: O padrão alimentar das pacientes foi caracterizado por uma dieta de risco.

  13. A Priori and a Posteriori Dietary Patterns during Pregnancy and Gestational Weight Gain: The Generation R Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrte J. Tielemans

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Abnormal gestational weight gain (GWG is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We examined whether dietary patterns are associated with GWG. Participants included 3374 pregnant women from a population-based cohort in the Netherlands. Dietary intake during pregnancy was assessed with food-frequency questionnaires. Three a posteriori-derived dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis: a “Vegetable, oil and fish”, a “Nuts, high-fiber cereals and soy”, and a “Margarine, sugar and snacks” pattern. The a priori-defined dietary pattern was based on national dietary recommendations. Weight was repeatedly measured around 13, 20 and 30 weeks of pregnancy; pre-pregnancy and maximum weight were self-reported. Normal weight women with high adherence to the “Vegetable, oil and fish” pattern had higher early-pregnancy GWG than those with low adherence (43 g/week (95% CI 16; 69 for highest vs. lowest quartile (Q. Adherence to the “Margarine, sugar and snacks” pattern was associated with a higher prevalence of excessive GWG (OR 1.45 (95% CI 1.06; 1.99 Q4 vs. Q1. Normal weight women with higher scores on the “Nuts, high-fiber cereals and soy” pattern had more moderate GWG than women with lower scores (−0.01 (95% CI −0.02; −0.00 per SD. The a priori-defined pattern was not associated with GWG. To conclude, specific dietary patterns may play a role in early pregnancy but are not consistently associated with GWG.

  14. A New Entropy Formula and Gradient Estimates for the Linear Heat Equation on Static Manifold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abimbola Abolarinwa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we prove a new monotonicity formula for the heat equation via a generalized family of entropy functionals. This family of entropy formulas generalizes both Perelman’s entropy for evolving metric and Ni’s entropy on static manifold. We show that this entropy satisfies a pointwise differential inequality for heat kernel. The consequences of which are various gradient and Harnack estimates for all positive solutions to the heat equation on compact manifold.

  15. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    OpenAIRE

    Jicha Miroslav; Lizal Frantisek; Jedelsky Jan

    2012-01-01

    Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA) is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain – calculation of power spectral density (PSD) of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused...

  16. Global a priori estimates for the inhomogeneous Landau equation with moderately soft potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Stephen; Silvestre, Luis; Snelson, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    We establish a priori upper bounds for solutions to the spatially inhomogeneous Landau equation in the case of moderately soft potentials, with arbitrary initial data, under the assumption that mass, energy and entropy densities stay under control. Our pointwise estimates decay polynomially in the velocity variable. We also show that if the initial data satisfies a Gaussian upper bound, this bound is propagated for all positive times.

  17. Metodologias de identificação de padrões alimentares a posteriori em crianças brasileiras: revisão sistemática

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Abreu de Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumo O objetivo deste estudo é fornecer orientações para identificação de padrões alimentares por abordagem a posteriori, bem como analisar os aspectos metodológicos dos estudos realizados no Brasil que os identificaram em crianças. Os artigos foram selecionados nas bases de dados da Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde, Scientific pattern; Principal component analysis; Factor analysis; Cluster analysis; Reduced rank regression. Incluíram-se pesquisas que identificaram padrões alimentares de crianças por meio da abordagem a posteriori. Selecionou-se 7 estudos, sendo 6 transversais e 1 de coorte, publicados entre 2007 e 2014. Cinco usaram como inquérito o questionário de frequência alimentar, um o recordatório de 24h e outro uma lista de alimentos. O método de abordagem exploratória mais utilizado nas publicações foi a análise fatorial por componentes principais, seguida da análise de agrupamento. O tamanho amostral dos estudos variou de 232 a 4231, os valores do teste Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin de 0,524 a 0,873, e o alfa de Cronbach de 0,51 a 0,69. Poucos estudos brasileiros identificaram padrões alimentares de crianças utilizando abordagem a posteriori, e a análise fatorial por componentes principais foi a técnica mais usada.

  18. Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian Discontinuous Galerkin schemes with a posteriori subcell finite volume limiting on moving unstructured meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boscheri, Walter; Dumbser, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Lagrangian formulations that are based on a fixed computational grid and which instead evolve the mapping of the reference configuration to the current one. Our new Lagrangian-type DG scheme adopts the novel a posteriori sub-cell finite volume limiter method recently developed in [62] for fixed unstructured grids. In this approach, the validity of the candidate solution produced in each cell by an unlimited ADER-DG scheme is verified against a set of physical and numerical detection criteria, such as the positivity of pressure and density, the absence of floating point errors (NaN) and the satisfaction of a relaxed discrete maximum principle (DMP) in the sense of polynomials. Those cells which do not satisfy all of the above criteria are flagged as troubled cells and are recomputed at the aid of a more robust second order TVD finite volume scheme. To preserve the subcell resolution capability of the original DG scheme, the FV limiter is run on a sub-grid that is 2 N + 1 times finer compared to the mesh of the original unlimited DG scheme. The new subcell averages are then gathered back into a high order DG polynomial by a usual conservative finite volume reconstruction operator. The numerical convergence rates of the new ALE ADER-DG schemes are studied up to fourth order in space and time and several test problems are simulated in order to check the accuracy and the robustness of the proposed numerical method in the context of the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations for compressible gas dynamics, considering both inviscid and viscous fluids. Finally, an application inspired by Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) type flows is considered by solving the Euler equations and the PDE of viscous and resistive magnetohydrodynamics (VRMHD).

  19. A three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianbao; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Bürgmann, Roland; Wang, Min; Chen, Lichun; Xu, Xiwei

    2013-08-01

    develop a three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the fully Bayesian inversion and mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion methods and shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, adaptive simulated annealing, is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF ("mode" in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the "true" solution further using the Monte Carlo inversion technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from the first step as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. We first design a fault model with 45° dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data sets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip distribution of the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e+19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e+19 Nm.

  20. Bayesian estimation in homodyne interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivares, Stefano; Paris, Matteo G A

    2009-01-01

    We address phase-shift estimation by means of squeezed vacuum probe and homodyne detection. We analyse Bayesian estimator, which is known to asymptotically saturate the classical Cramer-Rao bound to the variance, and discuss convergence looking at the a posteriori distribution as the number of measurements increases. We also suggest two feasible adaptive methods, acting on the squeezing parameter and/or the homodyne local oscillator phase, which allow us to optimize homodyne detection and approach the ultimate bound to precision imposed by the quantum Cramer-Rao theorem. The performances of our two-step methods are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulated experiments with a small number of homodyne data, thus giving a quantitative meaning to the notion of asymptotic optimality.

  1. Speech Enhancement by MAP Spectral Amplitude Estimation Using a Super-Gaussian Speech Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lotter Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This contribution presents two spectral amplitude estimators for acoustical background noise suppression based on maximum a posteriori estimation and super-Gaussian statistical modelling of the speech DFT amplitudes. The probability density function of the speech spectral amplitude is modelled with a simple parametric function, which allows a high approximation accuracy for Laplace- or Gamma-distributed real and imaginary parts of the speech DFT coefficients. Also, the statistical model can be adapted to optimally fit the distribution of the speech spectral amplitudes for a specific noise reduction system. Based on the super-Gaussian statistical model, computationally efficient maximum a posteriori speech estimators are derived, which outperform the commonly applied Ephraim-Malah algorithm.

  2. Do testemunho à memória: o a posteriori entre a história e as ruínas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José César Coimbra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Basado en investigación bibliográfica, este trabajo analiza las relaciones entre testimonio y memoria de Giorgio Agamben, Sigmund Freud, Walter Benjamin y verifica el lugar, en esas relaciones, de las nociones de olvido, de restos, de ruinas y el a posteriori. Se constata la sinergia de las elaboraciones de esos autores, las cuales destacan las posibilidades de desplazamiento de las posiciones subjetivas del testimonio frente al deber de la memoria. En el momento en que Brasil instala en primer plano su Comisión de la Verdad, la discusión abierta por el pasado revisitado resalta la importancia de comprender los límites de la expresión de la memoria que el testimonio proporciona.

  3. Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, W.; Cella, M.; Pasqua, O. Della; Burger, D.M.; Jacqz-Aigrain, E.

    2012-01-01

    WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: Abacavir is used to treat HIV infection in both adults and children. The recommended paediatric dose is 8 mg kg(-1) twice daily up to a maximum of 300 mg twice daily. Weight was identified as the central covariate influencing pharmacokinetics of abacavir in

  4. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied Pedersen, Jonas; Lund, Nadia Schou Vorndran; Borup, Morten

    2016-01-01

    High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper...... period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior...

  5. A-Posteriori Error Estimates for Mixed Finite Element and Finite Volume Methods for Problems Coupled Through a Boundary with Non-Matching Grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    both MFE and GFV, are often similar in size. As a gross measure of the effect of geometric projection and of the use of quadrature, we also report the...interest MFE ∑(e,ψ) or GFV ∑(e,ψ). Tables 1 and 2 show this using coarse and fine forward solutions. Table 1. The forward problem with solution (4.1) is run...adjoint data components ψu and ψp are constant everywhere and ψξ = 0. adj. grid MFE ∑(e,ψ) ∑MFEi ratio GFV ∑(e,ψ) ∑GFV i ratio 20x20 : 32x32 1.96E−3

  6. Bayesian centroid estimation for motif discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Luis

    2013-01-01

    Biological sequences may contain patterns that signal important biomolecular functions; a classical example is regulation of gene expression by transcription factors that bind to specific patterns in genomic promoter regions. In motif discovery we are given a set of sequences that share a common motif and aim to identify not only the motif composition, but also the binding sites in each sequence of the set. We propose a new centroid estimator that arises from a refined and meaningful loss function for binding site inference. We discuss the main advantages of centroid estimation for motif discovery, including computational convenience, and how its principled derivation offers further insights about the posterior distribution of binding site configurations. We also illustrate, using simulated and real datasets, that the centroid estimator can differ from the traditional maximum a posteriori or maximum likelihood estimators.

  7. Bayesian centroid estimation for motif discovery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carvalho

    Full Text Available Biological sequences may contain patterns that signal important biomolecular functions; a classical example is regulation of gene expression by transcription factors that bind to specific patterns in genomic promoter regions. In motif discovery we are given a set of sequences that share a common motif and aim to identify not only the motif composition, but also the binding sites in each sequence of the set. We propose a new centroid estimator that arises from a refined and meaningful loss function for binding site inference. We discuss the main advantages of centroid estimation for motif discovery, including computational convenience, and how its principled derivation offers further insights about the posterior distribution of binding site configurations. We also illustrate, using simulated and real datasets, that the centroid estimator can differ from the traditional maximum a posteriori or maximum likelihood estimators.

  8. Uncertainty quantification in a chemical system using error estimate-based mesh adaption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathelin, Lionel; Le Maitre, Olivier P.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous a posteriori error analysis for the stochastic solution of non-linear uncertain chemical models. The dual-based a posteriori stochastic error analysis extends the methodology developed in the deterministic finite elements context to stochastic discretization frameworks. It requires the resolution of two additional (dual) problems to yield the local error estimate. The stochastic error estimate can then be used to adapt the stochastic discretization. Different anisotropic refinement strategies are proposed, leading to a cost-efficient tool suitable for multi-dimensional problems of moderate stochastic dimension. The adaptive strategies allow both for refinement and coarsening of the stochastic discretization, as needed to satisfy a prescribed error tolerance. The adaptive strategies were successfully tested on a model for the hydrogen oxidation in supercritical conditions having 8 random parameters. The proposed methodologies are however general enough to be also applicable for a wide class of models such as uncertain fluid flows. (authors)

  9. Environment-aware ideal binary mask estimation using monaural cues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    We present a monaural approach to speech segregation that estimates the ideal binary mask (IBM) by combining amplitude modulation spectrogram (AMS) features, pitch-based features and speech presence probability (SPP) features derived from noise statistics. To maintain a high mask estimation...... accuracy in the presence of various background noises, the system employs environment-specific segregation models and automatically selects the appropriate model for a given input signal. Furthermore, instead of classifying each timefrequency (T-F) unit independently, the a posteriori probabilities...... of speech and noise presence are evaluated by considering adjacent TF units. The proposed system achieves high classification accuracy....

  10. Variational Multiscale error estimator for anisotropic adaptive fluid mechanic simulations: application to convection-diffusion problems

    OpenAIRE

    Bazile , Alban; Hachem , Elie; Larroya-Huguet , Juan-Carlos; Mesri , Youssef

    2018-01-01

    International audience; In this work, we present a new a posteriori error estimator based on the Variational Multiscale method for anisotropic adaptive fluid mechanics problems. The general idea is to combine the large scale error based on the solved part of the solution with the sub-mesh scale error based on the unresolved part of the solution. We compute the latter with two different methods: one using the stabilizing parameters and the other using bubble functions. We propose two different...

  11. Estimating and localizing the algebraic and total numerical errors using flux reconstructions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Papež, Jan; Strakoš, Z.; Vohralík, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 138, č. 3 (2018), s. 681-721 ISSN 0029-599X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : numerical solution of partial differential equations * finite element method * a posteriori error estimation * algebraic error * discretization error * stopping criteria * spatial distribution of the error Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.152, year: 2016

  12. B-spline goal-oriented error estimators for geometrically nonlinear rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    respectively, for the output functionals q2–q4 (linear and nonlinear with the trigonometric functions sine and cosine) in all the tests considered...of the errors resulting from the linear, quadratic and nonlinear (with trigonometric functions sine and cosine) outputs and for p = 1, 2. If the... Portugal . References [1] A.T. Adams. Sobolev Spaces. Academic Press, Boston, 1975. [2] M. Ainsworth and J.T. Oden. A posteriori error estimation in

  13. Iterative maximum a posteriori (IMAP-DOAS for retrieval of strongly absorbing trace gases: Model studies for CH4 and CO2 retrieval from near infrared spectra of SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Frankenberg

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past, differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS has mostly been employed for atmospheric trace gas retrieval in the UV/Vis spectral region. New spectrometers such as SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT also provide near infrared channels and thus allow for the detection of greenhouse gases like CH4, CO2, or N2O. However, modifications of the classical DOAS algorithm are necessary to account for the idiosyncrasies of this spectral region, i.e. the temperature and pressure dependence of the high resolution absorption lines. Furthermore, understanding the sensitivity of the measurement of these high resolution, strong absorption lines by means of a non-ideal device, i.e. having finite spectral resolution, is of special importance. This applies not only in the NIR, but can also prove to be an issue for the UV/Vis spectral region. This paper presents a modified iterative maximum a posteriori-DOAS (IMAP-DOAS algorithm based on optimal estimation theory introduced to the remote sensing community by rodgers76. This method directly iterates the vertical column densities of the absorbers of interest until the modeled total optical density fits the measurement. Although the discussion in this paper lays emphasis on satellite retrieval, the basic principles of the algorithm also hold for arbitrary measurement geometries. This new approach is applied to modeled spectra based on a comprehensive set of atmospheric temperature and pressure profiles. This analysis reveals that the sensitivity of measurement strongly depends on the prevailing pressure-height. The IMAP-DOAS algorithm properly accounts for the sensitivity of measurement on pressure due to pressure broadening of the absorption lines. Thus, biases in the retrieved vertical columns that would arise in classical algorithms, are obviated. Here, we analyse and quantify these systematic biases as well as errors due to variations in the temperature and pressure profiles, which is indispensable for

  14. Comparison of 3D Maximum A Posteriori and Filtered Backprojection algorithms for high resolution animal imaging in microPET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatziioannou, A.; Qi, J.; Moore, A.; Annala, A.; Nguyen, K.; Leahy, R.M.; Cherry, S.R.

    2000-01-01

    We have evaluated the performance of two three dimensional reconstruction algorithms with data acquired from microPET, a high resolution tomograph dedicated to small animal imaging. The first was a linear filtered-backprojection algorithm (FBP) with reprojection of the missing data and the second was a statistical maximum-aposteriori probability algorithm (MAP). The two algorithms were evaluated in terms of their resolution performance, both in phantoms and in vivo. Sixty independent realizations of a phantom simulating the brain of a baby monkey were acquired, each containing 3 million counts. Each of these realizations was reconstructed independently with both algorithms. The ensemble of the sixty reconstructed realizations was used to estimate the standard deviation as a measure of the noise for each reconstruction algorithm. More detail was recovered in the MAP reconstruction without an increase in noise relative to FBP. Studies in a simple cylindrical compartment phantom demonstrated improved recovery of known activity ratios with MAP. Finally in vivo studies also demonstrated a clear improvement in spatial resolution using the MAP algorithm. The quantitative accuracy of the MAP reconstruction was also evaluated by comparison with autoradiography and direct well counting of tissue samples and was shown to be superior

  15. A gradient estimate for solutions to parabolic equations with discontinuous coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jishan Fan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Li-Vogelius and Li-Nirenberg gave a gradient estimate for solutions of strongly elliptic equations and systems of divergence forms with piecewise smooth coefficients, respectively. The discontinuities of the coefficients are assumed to be given by manifolds of codimension 1, which we called them emph{manifolds of discontinuities}. Their gradient estimate is independent of the distances between manifolds of discontinuities. In this paper, we gave a parabolic version of their results. That is, we gave a gradient estimate for parabolic equations of divergence forms with piecewise smooth coefficients. The coefficients are assumed to be independent of time and their discontinuities are likewise the previous elliptic equations. As an application of this estimate, we also gave a pointwise gradient estimate for the fundamental solution of a parabolic operator with piecewise smooth coefficients. Both gradient estimates are independent of the distances between manifolds of discontinuities.

  16. Revisiting Boltzmann learning: parameter estimation in Markov random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Andersen, Lars Nonboe; Kjems, Ulrik

    1996-01-01

    This article presents a generalization of the Boltzmann machine that allows us to use the learning rule for a much wider class of maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori problems, including both supervised and unsupervised learning. Furthermore, the approach allows us to discuss regularization...... and generalization in the context of Boltzmann machines. We provide an illustrative example concerning parameter estimation in an inhomogeneous Markov field. The regularized adaptation produces a parameter set that closely resembles the “teacher” parameters, hence, will produce segmentations that closely reproduce...

  17. A Carleman estimate and the balancing principle in the quasi-reversibility method for solving the Cauchy problem for the Laplace equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Hui; Pereverzev, Sergei V; Klibanov, Michael V

    2009-01-01

    The quasi-reversibility method of solving the Cauchy problem for the Laplace equation in a bounded domain Ω is considered. With the help of the Carleman estimation technique improved error and stability bounds in a subdomain Ω σ is a subset of Ω are obtained. This paves the way for the use of the balancing principle for an a posteriori choice of the regularization parameter ε in the quasi-reversibility method. As an adaptive regularization parameter choice strategy, the balancing principle does not require a priori knowledge of either the solution smoothness or a constant K appearing in the stability bound estimation. Nevertheless, this principle allows an a posteriori parameter choice that up to a controllable constant achieves the best accuracy guaranteed by the Carleman estimate

  18. Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2004-01-01

    An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

  19. Associations of Mediterranean Diet and a Posteriori Derived Dietary Patterns with Breast and Lung Cancer Risk: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krusinska, Beata; Hawrysz, Iwona; Wadolowska, Lidia; Slowinska, Malgorzata Anna; Biernacki, Maciej; Czerwinska, Anna; Golota, Janusz Jacek

    2018-04-11

    Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women are the most commonly diagnosed cancers in Poland and worldwide. Results of studies involving dietary patterns (DPs) and breast or lung cancer risk in European countries outside the Mediterranean Sea region are limited and inconclusive. This study aimed to develop a 'Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet' ('Polish-aMED') score, and then study the associations between the 'Polish-aMED' score and a posteriori -derived dietary patterns with breast or lung cancer risk in adult Poles. This pooled analysis of two case-control studies involved 560 subjects (280 men, 280 women) aged 40-75 years from Northeastern Poland. Diagnoses of breast cancer in 140 women and lung cancer in 140 men were found. The food frequency consumption of 21 selected food groups was collected using a 62-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ)-6. The 'Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet' score which included eight items-vegetables, fruit, whole grain, fish, legumes, nuts and seeds-as well as the ratio of vegetable oils to animal fat and red and processed meat was developed (range: 0-8 points). Three DPs were identified in a Principal Component Analysis: 'Prudent', 'Non-healthy', 'Dressings and sweetened-low-fat dairy'. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, two models were created: crude, and adjusted for age, sex, type of cancer, Body Mass Index (BMI), socioeconomic status (SES) index, overall physical activity, smoking status and alcohol abuse. The risk of breast or lung cancer was lower in the average (3-5 points) and high (6-8 points) levels of the 'Polish-aMED' score compared to the low (0-2 points) level by 51% (odds ratio (OR): 0.49; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.30-0.80; p Mediterranean diet could be considered for adults living in non-Mediterranean countries for the prevention of the breast or lung cancers. Future studies should explore the role of a traditional Mediterranean diet fitted to local dietary patterns of non-Mediterranean Europeans

  20. Goal-oriented error estimation for Cahn-Hilliard models of binary phase transition

    KAUST Repository

    van der Zee, Kristoffer G.

    2010-10-27

    A posteriori estimates of errors in quantities of interest are developed for the nonlinear system of evolution equations embodied in the Cahn-Hilliard model of binary phase transition. These involve the analysis of wellposedness of dual backward-in-time problems and the calculation of residuals. Mixed finite element approximations are developed and used to deliver numerical solutions of representative problems in one- and two-dimensional domains. Estimated errors are shown to be quite accurate in these numerical examples. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Regularity of pointwise boundary control systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael

    1992-01-01

    We will in these notes address some problems arising in "real-life" control application, namely problems concerning distributional control inputs on the boundary of the spatial domain. We extend the classical variational approach and give easily checkable sufficient conditions for the solutions...

  2. Pointwise extensions of GSOS-defined operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, H.H.; Klin, B.

    2011-01-01

    Final coalgebras capture system behaviours such as streams, infinite trees and processes. Algebraic operations on a final coalgebra can be defined by distributive laws (of a syntax functor S over a behaviour functor F). Such distributive laws correspond to abstract specification formats. One such

  3. Pointwise Extensions of GSOS-Defined Operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Hansen (Helle); B. Klin

    2011-01-01

    textabstractFinal coalgebras capture system behaviours such as streams, infinite trees and processes. Algebraic operations on a final coalgebra can be defined by distributive laws (of a syntax functor $\\FSig$ over a behaviour functor $F$). Such distributive laws correspond to abstract specification

  4. Multiple Illuminant Colour Estimation via Statistical Inference on Factor Graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutimbu, Lawrence; Robles-Kelly, Antonio

    2016-08-31

    This paper presents a method to recover a spatially varying illuminant colour estimate from scenes lit by multiple light sources. Starting with the image formation process, we formulate the illuminant recovery problem in a statistically datadriven setting. To do this, we use a factor graph defined across the scale space of the input image. In the graph, we utilise a set of illuminant prototypes computed using a data driven approach. As a result, our method delivers a pixelwise illuminant colour estimate being devoid of libraries or user input. The use of a factor graph also allows for the illuminant estimates to be recovered making use of a maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference process. Moreover, we compute the probability marginals by performing a Delaunay triangulation on our factor graph. We illustrate the utility of our method for pixelwise illuminant colour recovery on widely available datasets and compare against a number of alternatives. We also show sample colour correction results on real-world images.

  5. Slope Estimation in Noisy Piecewise Linear Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingle, Atul; Bucklew, James; Sethares, William; Varghese, Tomy

    2015-03-01

    This paper discusses the development of a slope estimation algorithm called MAPSlope for piecewise linear data that is corrupted by Gaussian noise. The number and locations of slope change points (also known as breakpoints) are assumed to be unknown a priori though it is assumed that the possible range of slope values lies within known bounds. A stochastic hidden Markov model that is general enough to encompass real world sources of piecewise linear data is used to model the transitions between slope values and the problem of slope estimation is addressed using a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach. The set of possible slope values is discretized, enabling the design of a dynamic programming algorithm for posterior density maximization. Numerical simulations are used to justify choice of a reasonable number of quantization levels and also to analyze mean squared error performance of the proposed algorithm. An alternating maximization algorithm is proposed for estimation of unknown model parameters and a convergence result for the method is provided. Finally, results using data from political science, finance and medical imaging applications are presented to demonstrate the practical utility of this procedure.

  6. Computable Error Estimates for Finite Element Approximations of Elliptic Partial Differential Equations with Rough Stochastic Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hall, Eric Joseph

    2016-12-08

    We derive computable error estimates for finite element approximations of linear elliptic partial differential equations with rough stochastic coefficients. In this setting, the exact solutions contain high frequency content that standard a posteriori error estimates fail to capture. We propose goal-oriented estimates, based on local error indicators, for the pathwise Galerkin and expected quadrature errors committed in standard, continuous, piecewise linear finite element approximations. Derived using easily validated assumptions, these novel estimates can be computed at a relatively low cost and have applications to subsurface flow problems in geophysics where the conductivities are assumed to have lognormal distributions with low regularity. Our theory is supported by numerical experiments on test problems in one and two dimensions.

  7. Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; CHEN, D.; Zhang, L.; Liou, K.

    2012-12-01

    We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.5°×0.667° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~50% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-September. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

  8. Estimation Methods for Infinite-Dimensional Systems Applied to the Hemodynamic Response in the Brain

    KAUST Repository

    Belkhatir, Zehor

    2018-05-01

    Infinite-Dimensional Systems (IDSs) which have been made possible by recent advances in mathematical and computational tools can be used to model complex real phenomena. However, due to physical, economic, or stringent non-invasive constraints on real systems, the underlying characteristics for mathematical models in general (and IDSs in particular) are often missing or subject to uncertainty. Therefore, developing efficient estimation techniques to extract missing pieces of information from available measurements is essential. The human brain is an example of IDSs with severe constraints on information collection from controlled experiments and invasive sensors. Investigating the intriguing modeling potential of the brain is, in fact, the main motivation for this work. Here, we will characterize the hemodynamic behavior of the brain using functional magnetic resonance imaging data. In this regard, we propose efficient estimation methods for two classes of IDSs, namely Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs). This work is divided into two parts. The first part addresses the joint estimation problem of the state, parameters, and input for a coupled second-order hyperbolic PDE and an infinite-dimensional ordinary differential equation using sampled-in-space measurements. Two estimation techniques are proposed: a Kalman-based algorithm that relies on a reduced finite-dimensional model of the IDS, and an infinite-dimensional adaptive estimator whose convergence proof is based on the Lyapunov approach. We study and discuss the identifiability of the unknown variables for both cases. The second part contributes to the development of estimation methods for FDEs where major challenges arise in estimating fractional differentiation orders and non-smooth pointwise inputs. First, we propose a fractional high-order sliding mode observer to jointly estimate the pseudo-state and input of commensurate FDEs. Second, we propose a

  9. Pre- and post-processing filters for improvement of blood velocity estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlaikjer, Malene; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2000-01-01

    with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). The exact extent of the vessel and the true velocities are thereby known. Velocity estimates were obtained by employing Kasai's autocorrelator on the data. The post-processing filter was used on the computed 2D velocity map. An improvement of the RMS error...... velocity in the vessels. Post-processing is beneficial to obtain an image that minimizes the variation, and present the important information to the clinicians. Applying the theory of fluid mechanics introduces restrictions on the variations possible in a flow field. Neighboring estimates in time and space...... should be highly correlated, since transitions should occur smoothly. This idea is the basis of the algorithm developed in this study. From Bayesian image processing theory an a posteriori probability distribution for the velocity field is computed based on constraints on smoothness. An estimate...

  10. Real-Time Radar-Based Tracking and State Estimation of Multiple Non-Conformant Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Brandon; Arnett, Timothy; Macmann, Owen; Kumar, Manish

    2017-01-01

    In this study, a novel solution for automated tracking of multiple unknown aircraft is proposed. Many current methods use transponders to self-report state information and augment track identification. While conformant aircraft typically report transponder information to alert surrounding aircraft of its state, vehicles may exist in the airspace that are non-compliant and need to be accurately tracked using alternative methods. In this study, a multi-agent tracking solution is presented that solely utilizes primary surveillance radar data to estimate aircraft state information. Main research challenges include state estimation, track management, data association, and establishing persistent track validity. In an effort to realize these challenges, techniques such as Maximum a Posteriori estimation, Kalman filtering, degree of membership data association, and Nearest Neighbor Spanning Tree clustering are implemented for this application.

  11. Multiple-hit parameter estimation in monolithic detectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, William C J; Barrett, Harrison H; Lewellen, Tom K; Miyaoka, Robert S

    2013-02-01

    We examine a maximum-a-posteriori method for estimating the primary interaction position of gamma rays with multiple interaction sites (hits) in a monolithic detector. In assessing the performance of a multiple-hit estimator over that of a conventional one-hit estimator, we consider a few different detector and readout configurations of a 50-mm-wide square cerium-doped lutetium oxyorthosilicate block. For this study, we use simulated data from SCOUT, a Monte-Carlo tool for photon tracking and modeling scintillation- camera output. With this tool, we determine estimate bias and variance for a multiple-hit estimator and compare these with similar metrics for a one-hit maximum-likelihood estimator, which assumes full energy deposition in one hit. We also examine the effect of event filtering on these metrics; for this purpose, we use a likelihood threshold to reject signals that are not likely to have been produced under the assumed likelihood model. Depending on detector design, we observe a 1%-12% improvement of intrinsic resolution for a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with a 1-hit estimator. We also observe improved differentiation of photopeak events using a 1-or-2-hit estimator as compared with the 1-hit estimator; more than 6% of photopeak events that were rejected by likelihood filtering for the 1-hit estimator were accurately identified as photopeak events and positioned without loss of resolution by a 1-or-2-hit estimator; for PET, this equates to at least a 12% improvement in coincidence-detection efficiency with likelihood filtering applied.

  12. Joint fundamental frequency and order estimation using optimal filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakobsson Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, the problem of jointly estimating the number of harmonics and the fundamental frequency of periodic signals is considered. We show how this problem can be solved using a number of methods that either are or can be interpreted as filtering methods in combination with a statistical model selection criterion. The methods in question are the classical comb filtering method, a maximum likelihood method, and some filtering methods based on optimal filtering that have recently been proposed, while the model selection criterion is derived herein from the maximum a posteriori principle. The asymptotic properties of the optimal filtering methods are analyzed and an order-recursive efficient implementation is derived. Finally, the estimators have been compared in computer simulations that show that the optimal filtering methods perform well under various conditions. It has previously been demonstrated that the optimal filtering methods perform extremely well with respect to fundamental frequency estimation under adverse conditions, and this fact, combined with the new results on model order estimation and efficient implementation, suggests that these methods form an appealing alternative to classical methods for analyzing multi-pitch signals.

  13. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  14. Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

  15. MAP estimators and their consistency in Bayesian nonparametric inverse problems

    KAUST Repository

    Dashti, M.

    2013-09-01

    We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function u from noisy measurements y of a known, possibly nonlinear, map applied to u. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the prior measure is specified as a Gaussian random field μ0. We work under a natural set of conditions on the likelihood which implies the existence of a well-posed posterior measure, μy. Under these conditions, we show that the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is well defined as the minimizer of an Onsager-Machlup functional defined on the Cameron-Martin space of the prior; thus, we link a problem in probability with a problem in the calculus of variations. We then consider the case where the observational noise vanishes and establish a form of Bayesian posterior consistency for the MAP estimator. We also prove a similar result for the case where the observation of can be repeated as many times as desired with independent identically distributed noise. The theory is illustrated with examples from an inverse problem for the Navier-Stokes equation, motivated by problems arising in weather forecasting, and from the theory of conditioned diffusions, motivated by problems arising in molecular dynamics. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  16. MAP estimators and their consistency in Bayesian nonparametric inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dashti, M; Law, K J H; Stuart, A M; Voss, J

    2013-01-01

    We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function u from noisy measurements y of a known, possibly nonlinear, map G applied to u. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the prior measure is specified as a Gaussian random field μ 0 . We work under a natural set of conditions on the likelihood which implies the existence of a well-posed posterior measure, μ y . Under these conditions, we show that the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator is well defined as the minimizer of an Onsager–Machlup functional defined on the Cameron–Martin space of the prior; thus, we link a problem in probability with a problem in the calculus of variations. We then consider the case where the observational noise vanishes and establish a form of Bayesian posterior consistency for the MAP estimator. We also prove a similar result for the case where the observation of G(u) can be repeated as many times as desired with independent identically distributed noise. The theory is illustrated with examples from an inverse problem for the Navier–Stokes equation, motivated by problems arising in weather forecasting, and from the theory of conditioned diffusions, motivated by problems arising in molecular dynamics. (paper)

  17. An adaptive Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate the parameters of a hazardous atmospheric release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaona, Harizo; Septier, François; Armand, Patrick; Delignon, Yves; Olry, Christophe; Albergel, Armand; Moussafir, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    In the eventuality of an accidental or intentional atmospheric release, the reconstruction of the source term using measurements from a set of sensors is an important and challenging inverse problem. A rapid and accurate estimation of the source allows faster and more efficient action for first-response teams, in addition to providing better damage assessment. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the location and the temporal emission profile of a pointwise source. The release rate is evaluated analytically by using a Gaussian assumption on its prior distribution, and is enhanced with a positivity constraint to improve the estimation. The source location is obtained by the means of an advanced iterative Monte-Carlo technique called Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS), which uses a recycling process at each iteration to accelerate its convergence. The proposed methodology is tested using synthetic and real concentration data in the framework of the Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT-07) experiment. The quality of the obtained results is comparable to those coming from the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a popular Bayesian method used for source estimation. Moreover, the adaptive processing of the AMIS provides a better sampling efficiency by reusing all the generated samples.

  18. Instantaneous Fundamental Frequency Estimation with Optimal Segmentation for Nonstationary Voiced Speech

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørholm, Sidsel Marie; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2016-01-01

    In speech processing, the speech is often considered stationary within segments of 20–30 ms even though it is well known not to be true. In this paper, we take the non-stationarity of voiced speech into account by using a linear chirp model to describe the speech signal. We propose a maximum...... likelihood estimator of the fundamental frequency and chirp rate of this model, and show that it reaches the Cramer-Rao bound. Since the speech varies over time, a fixed segment length is not optimal, and we propose to make a segmentation of the signal based on the maximum a posteriori (MAP) criterion. Using...... of the chirp model than the harmonic model to the speech signal. The methods are based on an assumption of white Gaussian noise, and, therefore, two prewhitening filters are also proposed....

  19. Estimating clinical chemistry reference values based on an existing data set of unselected animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimauro, Corrado; Bonelli, Piero; Nicolussi, Paola; Rassu, Salvatore P G; Cappio-Borlino, Aldo; Pulina, Giuseppe

    2008-11-01

    In an attempt to standardise the determination of biological reference values, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) has published a series of recommendations on developing reference intervals. The IFCC recommends the use of an a priori sampling of at least 120 healthy individuals. However, such a high number of samples and laboratory analysis is expensive, time-consuming and not always feasible, especially in veterinary medicine. In this paper, an alternative (a posteriori) method is described and is used to determine reference intervals for biochemical parameters of farm animals using an existing laboratory data set. The method used was based on the detection and removal of outliers to obtain a large sample of animals likely to be healthy from the existing data set. This allowed the estimation of reliable reference intervals for biochemical parameters in Sarda dairy sheep. This method may also be useful for the determination of reference intervals for different species, ages and gender.

  20. Two-component mixture cure rate model with spline estimated nonparametric components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu; Du, Pang; Liang, Hua

    2012-09-01

    In some survival analysis of medical studies, there are often long-term survivors who can be considered as permanently cured. The goals in these studies are to estimate the noncured probability of the whole population and the hazard rate of the susceptible subpopulation. When covariates are present as often happens in practice, to understand covariate effects on the noncured probability and hazard rate is of equal importance. The existing methods are limited to parametric and semiparametric models. We propose a two-component mixture cure rate model with nonparametric forms for both the cure probability and the hazard rate function. Identifiability of the model is guaranteed by an additive assumption that allows no time-covariate interactions in the logarithm of hazard rate. Estimation is carried out by an expectation-maximization algorithm on maximizing a penalized likelihood. For inferential purpose, we apply the Louis formula to obtain point-wise confidence intervals for noncured probability and hazard rate. Asymptotic convergence rates of our function estimates are established. We then evaluate the proposed method by extensive simulations. We analyze the survival data from a melanoma study and find interesting patterns for this study. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Image Denoising via Bayesian Estimation of Statistical Parameter Using Generalized Gamma Density Prior in Gaussian Noise Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittisuwan, Pichid

    2015-03-01

    The application of image processing in industry has shown remarkable success over the last decade, for example, in security and telecommunication systems. The denoising of natural image corrupted by Gaussian noise is a classical problem in image processing. So, image denoising is an indispensable step during image processing. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. One of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the statistical parameter of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with generalized Gamma density prior for local observed variance and Laplacian or Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by efficient and flexible properties of generalized Gamma density. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

  2. Bayesian estimation of multicomponent relaxation parameters in magnetic resonance fingerprinting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGivney, Debra; Deshmane, Anagha; Jiang, Yun; Ma, Dan; Badve, Chaitra; Sloan, Andrew; Gulani, Vikas; Griswold, Mark

    2018-07-01

    To estimate multiple components within a single voxel in magnetic resonance fingerprinting when the number and types of tissues comprising the voxel are not known a priori. Multiple tissue components within a single voxel are potentially separable with magnetic resonance fingerprinting as a result of differences in signal evolutions of each component. The Bayesian framework for inverse problems provides a natural and flexible setting for solving this problem when the tissue composition per voxel is unknown. Assuming that only a few entries from the dictionary contribute to a mixed signal, sparsity-promoting priors can be placed upon the solution. An iterative algorithm is applied to compute the maximum a posteriori estimator of the posterior probability density to determine the magnetic resonance fingerprinting dictionary entries that contribute most significantly to mixed or pure voxels. Simulation results show that the algorithm is robust in finding the component tissues of mixed voxels. Preliminary in vivo data confirm this result, and show good agreement in voxels containing pure tissue. The Bayesian framework and algorithm shown provide accurate solutions for the partial-volume problem in magnetic resonance fingerprinting. The flexibility of the method will allow further study into different priors and hyperpriors that can be applied in the model. Magn Reson Med 80:159-170, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  3. A filtering approach to edge preserving MAP estimation of images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphrey, David; Taubman, David

    2011-05-01

    The authors present a computationally efficient technique for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of images in the presence of both blur and noise. The image is divided into statistically independent regions. Each region is modelled with a WSS Gaussian prior. Classical Wiener filter theory is used to generate a set of convex sets in the solution space, with the solution to the MAP estimation problem lying at the intersection of these sets. The proposed algorithm uses an underlying segmentation of the image, and a means of determining the segmentation and refining it are described. The algorithm is suitable for a range of image restoration problems, as it provides a computationally efficient means to deal with the shortcomings of Wiener filtering without sacrificing the computational simplicity of the filtering approach. The algorithm is also of interest from a theoretical viewpoint as it provides a continuum of solutions between Wiener filtering and Inverse filtering depending upon the segmentation used. We do not attempt to show here that the proposed method is the best general approach to the image reconstruction problem. However, related work referenced herein shows excellent performance in the specific problem of demosaicing.

  4. A MAP Estimator for Simultaneous Superresolution and Detector Nonunifomity Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas R. Droege

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available During digital video acquisition, imagery may be degraded by a number of phenomena including undersampling, blur, and noise. Many systems, particularly those containing infrared focal plane array (FPA sensors, are also subject to detector nonuniformity. Nonuniformity, or fixed pattern noise, results from nonuniform responsivity of the photodetectors that make up the FPA. Here we propose a maximum a posteriori (MAP estimation framework for simultaneously addressing undersampling, linear blur, additive noise, and bias nonuniformity. In particular, we jointly estimate a superresolution (SR image and detector bias nonuniformity parameters from a sequence of observed frames. This algorithm can be applied to video in a variety of ways including using a moving temporal window of frames to process successive groups of frames. By combining SR and nonuniformity correction (NUC in this fashion, we demonstrate that superior results are possible compared with the more conventional approach of performing scene-based NUC followed by independent SR. The proposed MAP algorithm can be applied with or without SR, depending on the application and computational resources available. Even without SR, we believe that the proposed algorithm represents a novel and promising scene-based NUC technique. We present a number of experimental results to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm. These include simulated imagery for quantitative analysis and real infrared video for qualitative analysis.

  5. A Modularized Efficient Framework for Non-Markov Time Series Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schamberg, Gabriel; Ba, Demba; Coleman, Todd P.

    2018-06-01

    We present a compartmentalized approach to finding the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate of a latent time series that obeys a dynamic stochastic model and is observed through noisy measurements. We specifically consider modern signal processing problems with non-Markov signal dynamics (e.g. group sparsity) and/or non-Gaussian measurement models (e.g. point process observation models used in neuroscience). Through the use of auxiliary variables in the MAP estimation problem, we show that a consensus formulation of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) enables iteratively computing separate estimates based on the likelihood and prior and subsequently "averaging" them in an appropriate sense using a Kalman smoother. As such, this can be applied to a broad class of problem settings and only requires modular adjustments when interchanging various aspects of the statistical model. Under broad log-concavity assumptions, we show that the separate estimation problems are convex optimization problems and that the iterative algorithm converges to the MAP estimate. As such, this framework can capture non-Markov latent time series models and non-Gaussian measurement models. We provide example applications involving (i) group-sparsity priors, within the context of electrophysiologic specrotemporal estimation, and (ii) non-Gaussian measurement models, within the context of dynamic analyses of learning with neural spiking and behavioral observations.

  6. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedelsky, Jan; Lizal, Frantisek; Jicha, Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA) is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain - calculation of power spectral density (PSD) of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused by seeding density and other factors of the flow and LDA setup. Arbitrary results of LDA measurements are compared with corresponding Hot Wire Anemometry (HWA) data in the frequency domain. Slot correlation (SC) method implemented in software program Kern by Nobach (2006) is used for the PSD estimation. Influence of several input parameters on resulting PSDs is described. Optimum setup of the software for our data of particle-laden air flow in realistic human airway model is documented. Typical character of the flow is described using PSD plots of velocity fluctuations with comments on specific properties of the flow. Some recommendations for improvements of future experiments to acquire better PSD results are given.

  7. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jicha Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain – calculation of power spectral density (PSD of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused by seeding density and other factors of the flow and LDA setup. Arbitrary results of LDA measurements are compared with corresponding Hot Wire Anemometry (HWA data in the frequency domain. Slot correlation (SC method implemented in software program Kern by Nobach (2006 is used for the PSD estimation. Influence of several input parameters on resulting PSDs is described. Optimum setup of the software for our data of particle-laden air flow in realistic human airway model is documented. Typical character of the flow is described using PSD plots of velocity fluctuations with comments on specific properties of the flow. Some recommendations for improvements of future experiments to acquire better PSD results are given.

  8. Convergence estimates in probability and in expectation for discrete least squares with noisy evaluations at random points

    KAUST Repository

    Migliorati, Giovanni

    2015-08-28

    We study the accuracy of the discrete least-squares approximation on a finite dimensional space of a real-valued target function from noisy pointwise evaluations at independent random points distributed according to a given sampling probability measure. The convergence estimates are given in mean-square sense with respect to the sampling measure. The noise may be correlated with the location of the evaluation and may have nonzero mean (offset). We consider both cases of bounded or square-integrable noise / offset. We prove conditions between the number of sampling points and the dimension of the underlying approximation space that ensure a stable and accurate approximation. Particular focus is on deriving estimates in probability within a given confidence level. We analyze how the best approximation error and the noise terms affect the convergence rate and the overall confidence level achieved by the convergence estimate. The proofs of our convergence estimates in probability use arguments from the theory of large deviations to bound the noise term. Finally we address the particular case of multivariate polynomial approximation spaces with any density in the beta family, including uniform and Chebyshev.

  9. Pointwise asymptotic convergence of solutions for a phase separation model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Zheng, S.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 1 (2006), s. 1-18 ISSN 1078-0947 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : phase-field system * asymptotic phase separation * energy Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.087, year: 2006 http://aimsciences.org/journals/pdfs.jsp?paperID=1875&mode=full

  10. Estimating the Geocenter from GNSS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dach, Rolf; Michael, Meindl; Beutler, Gerhard; Schaer, Stefan; Lutz, Simon; Jäggi, Adrian

    2014-05-01

    The satellites of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are orbiting the Earth according to the laws of celestial mechanics. As a consequence, the satellites are sensitive to the coordinates of the center of mass of the Earth. The coordinates of the (ground) tracking stations are referring to the center of figure as the conventional origin of the reference frame. The difference between the center of mass and center of figure is the instantaneous geocenter. Following this definition the global GNSS solutions are sensitive to the geocenter. Several studies demonstrated strong correlations of the GNSS-derived geocenter coordinates with parameters intended to absorb radiation pressure effects acting on the GNSS satellites, and with GNSS satellite clock parameters. One should thus pose the question to what extent these satellite-related parameters absorb (or hide) the geocenter information. A clean simulation study has been performed to answer this question. The simulation environment allows it in particular to introduce user-defined shifts of the geocenter (systematic inconsistencies between the satellite's and station's reference frames). These geocenter shifts may be recovered by the mentioned parameters - provided they were set up in the analysis. If the geocenter coordinates are not estimated, one may find out which other parameters absorb the user-defined shifts of the geocenter and to what extent. Furthermore, the simulation environment also allows it to extract the correlation matrix from the a posteriori covariance matrix to study the correlations between different parameter types of the GNSS analysis system. Our results show high degrees of correlations between geocenter coordinates, orbit-related parameters, and satellite clock parameters. These correlations are of the same order of magnitude as the correlations between station heights, troposphere, and receiver clock parameters in each regional or global GNSS network analysis. If such correlations

  11. Assessing the Importance of Prior Biospheric Fluxes on Inverse Model Estimates of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric sources/sinks. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Currently, atmospheric chemical transport models (CTM) and global climate models (GCM) use multiple different biospheric CO2 flux models resulting in large differences in simulating the global carbon cycle. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission was designed to allow for the improved understanding of the processes involved in the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and therefore allowing for more accurate assessment of the seasonal/inter-annual variability of CO2. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions allowing for the evaluation of model simulations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and facilitating global/regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes. We conduct a 4-D Variation (4D-Var) data assimilation with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) CTM using 1) OCO-2 land nadir and land glint retrievals and 2) global in situ surface flask observations to constrain biospheric CO2 fluxes. We apply different state-of-the-science year-specific CO2 flux models (e.g., NASA-CASA (NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach), CASA-GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database), Simple Biosphere Model version 4 (SiB-4), and LPJ (Lund-Postdam-Jena)) to assess the impact of "a priori" flux predictions to "a posteriori" estimates. We will present the "top-down" CO2 flux estimates for the year 2015 using OCO-2 and in situ observations, and a complete indirect evaluation of the a priori and a posteriori flux estimates using independent in situ observations. We will also present our assessment of the variability of "top-down" CO2 flux estimates when using different

  12. Two-dimensional hazard estimation for longevity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fledelius, Peter; Guillen, M.; Nielsen, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    is smooth. Cross-validation is applied for optimal bandwidth selection to ensure the proper amount of smoothing to help distinguishing between random and systematic variation in data. A bootstrap technique is used for construction of pointwise confidence bounds. We study the mortality profiles by slicing up...

  13. Convergence estimates in probability and in expectation for discrete least squares with noisy evaluations at random points

    KAUST Repository

    Migliorati, Giovanni; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    We study the accuracy of the discrete least-squares approximation on a finite dimensional space of a real-valued target function from noisy pointwise evaluations at independent random points distributed according to a given sampling probability

  14. 3D head pose estimation and tracking using particle filtering and ICP algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Ben Ghorbel, Mahdi; Baklouti, Malek; Couvet, Serge

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of 3D head pose estimation and tracking. Existing approaches generally need huge database, training procedure, manual initialization or use face feature extraction manually extracted. We propose a framework for estimating the 3D head pose in its fine level and tracking it continuously across multiple Degrees of Freedom (DOF) based on ICP and particle filtering. We propose to approach the problem, using 3D computational techniques, by aligning a face model to the 3D dense estimation computed by a stereo vision method, and propose a particle filter algorithm to refine and track the posteriori estimate of the position of the face. This work comes with two contributions: the first concerns the alignment part where we propose an extended ICP algorithm using an anisotropic scale transformation. The second contribution concerns the tracking part. We propose the use of the particle filtering algorithm and propose to constrain the search space using ICP algorithm in the propagation step. The results show that the system is able to fit and track the head properly, and keeps accurate the results on new individuals without a manual adaptation or training. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

  15. Estimating Utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Simler, Kenneth R.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes a......, with the current approach tending to systematically overestimate (underestimate) poverty in urban (rural) zones.......A fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space. Disturbingly, a series of recent studies in middle- and low-income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise. This article proposes...... an information-theoretic approach to estimating cost-of-basic-needs (CBN) poverty lines that are utility consistent. Applications to date illustrate that utility-consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current CBN best practices often differ substantially...

  16. Revisiting the constant growth angle: Estimation and verification via rigorous thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virozub, Alexander; Rasin, Igal G.; Brandon, Simon

    2008-12-01

    Methods for estimating growth angle ( θgr) values, based on the a posteriori analysis of directionally solidified material (e.g. drops) often involve assumptions of negligible gravitational effects as well as a planar solid/liquid interface during solidification. We relax both of these assumptions when using experimental drop shapes from the literature to estimate the relevant growth angles at the initial stages of solidification. Assumed to be constant, we use these values as input into a rigorous heat transfer and solidification model of the growth process. This model, which is shown to reproduce the experimental shape of a solidified sessile water drop using the literature value of θgr=0∘, yields excellent agreement with experimental profiles using our estimated values for silicon ( θgr=10∘) and germanium ( θgr=14.3∘) solidifying on an isotropic crystalline surface. The effect of gravity on the solidified drop shape is found to be significant in the case of germanium, suggesting that gravity should either be included in the analysis or that care should be taken that the relevant Bond number is truly small enough in each measurement. The planar solidification interface assumption is found to be unjustified. Although this issue is important when simulating the inflection point in the profile of the solidified water drop, there are indications that solidified drop shapes (at least in the case of silicon) may be fairly insensitive to the shape of this interface.

  17. Model-based decoding, information estimation, and change-point detection techniques for multineuron spike trains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillow, Jonathan W; Ahmadian, Yashar; Paninski, Liam

    2011-01-01

    One of the central problems in systems neuroscience is to understand how neural spike trains convey sensory information. Decoding methods, which provide an explicit means for reading out the information contained in neural spike responses, offer a powerful set of tools for studying the neural coding problem. Here we develop several decoding methods based on point-process neural encoding models, or forward models that predict spike responses to stimuli. These models have concave log-likelihood functions, which allow efficient maximum-likelihood model fitting and stimulus decoding. We present several applications of the encoding model framework to the problem of decoding stimulus information from population spike responses: (1) a tractable algorithm for computing the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the stimulus, the most probable stimulus to have generated an observed single- or multiple-neuron spike train response, given some prior distribution over the stimulus; (2) a gaussian approximation to the posterior stimulus distribution that can be used to quantify the fidelity with which various stimulus features are encoded; (3) an efficient method for estimating the mutual information between the stimulus and the spike trains emitted by a neural population; and (4) a framework for the detection of change-point times (the time at which the stimulus undergoes a change in mean or variance) by marginalizing over the posterior stimulus distribution. We provide several examples illustrating the performance of these estimators with simulated and real neural data.

  18. A least squares approach to estimating the probability distribution of unobserved data in multiphoton microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salama, Paul

    2008-02-01

    Multi-photon microscopy has provided biologists with unprecedented opportunities for high resolution imaging deep into tissues. Unfortunately deep tissue multi-photon microscopy images are in general noisy since they are acquired at low photon counts. To aid in the analysis and segmentation of such images it is sometimes necessary to initially enhance the acquired images. One way to enhance an image is to find the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of each pixel comprising an image, which is achieved by finding a constrained least squares estimate of the unknown distribution. In arriving at the distribution it is assumed that the noise is Poisson distributed, the true but unknown pixel values assume a probability mass function over a finite set of non-negative values, and since the observed data also assumes finite values because of low photon counts, the sum of the probabilities of the observed pixel values (obtained from the histogram of the acquired pixel values) is less than one. Experimental results demonstrate that it is possible to closely estimate the unknown probability mass function with these assumptions.

  19. An evolutionary firefly algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear biological model parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afnizanfaizal Abdullah

    Full Text Available The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test.

  20. Real-Time Personalized Monitoring to Estimate Occupational Heat Stress in Ambient Assisted Working

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Pancardo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Ambient Assisted Working (AAW is a discipline aiming to provide comfort and safety in the workplace through customization and technology. Workers’ comfort may be compromised in many labor situations, including those depending on environmental conditions, like extremely hot weather conduces to heat stress. Occupational heat stress (OHS happens when a worker is in an uninterrupted physical activity and in a hot environment. OHS can produce strain on the body, which leads to discomfort and eventually to heat illness and even death. Related ISO standards contain methods to estimate OHS and to ensure the safety and health of workers, but they are subjective, impersonal, performed a posteriori and even invasive. This paper focuses on the design and development of real-time personalized monitoring for a more effective and objective estimation of OHS, taking into account the individual user profile, fusing data from environmental and unobtrusive body sensors. Formulas employed in this work were taken from different domains and joined in the method that we propose. It is based on calculations that enable continuous surveillance of physical activity performance in a comfortable and healthy manner. In this proposal, we found that OHS can be estimated by satisfying the following criteria: objective, personalized, in situ, in real time, just in time and in an unobtrusive way. This enables timely notice for workers to make decisions based on objective information to control OHS.

  1. Performance of Cross-layer Design with Multiple Outdated Estimates in Multiuser MIMO System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available By combining adaptive modulation (AM and automatic repeat request (ARQ protocol as well as user scheduling, the cross-layer design scheme of multiuser MIMO system with imperfect feedback is presented, and multiple outdated estimates method is proposed to improve the system performance. Based on this method and imperfect feedback information, the closed-form expressions of spectral efficiency (SE and packet error rate (PER of the system subject to the target PER constraint are respectively derived. With these expressions, the system performance can be effectively evaluated. To mitigate the effect of delayed feedback, the variable thresholds (VTs are also derived by means of the maximum a posteriori method, and these VTs include the conventional fixed thresholds (FTs as special cases. Simulation results show that the theoretical SE and PER are in good agreement with the corresponding simulation. The proposed CLD scheme with multiple estimates can obtain higher SE than the existing CLD scheme with single estimate, especially for large delay. Moreover, the CLD scheme with VTs outperforms that with conventional FTs.

  2. An evolutionary firefly algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear biological model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N V

    2013-01-01

    The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test.

  3. Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

    2016-03-01

    Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and

  4. Estimation of Longitudinal Force and Sideslip Angle for Intelligent Four-Wheel Independent Drive Electric Vehicles by Observer Iteration and Information Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Te; Chen, Long; Xu, Xing; Cai, Yingfeng; Jiang, Haobin; Sun, Xiaoqiang

    2018-04-20

    Exact estimation of longitudinal force and sideslip angle is important for lateral stability and path-following control of four-wheel independent driven electric vehicle. This paper presents an effective method for longitudinal force and sideslip angle estimation by observer iteration and information fusion for four-wheel independent drive electric vehicles. The electric driving wheel model is introduced into the vehicle modeling process and used for longitudinal force estimation, the longitudinal force reconstruction equation is obtained via model decoupling, the a Luenberger observer and high-order sliding mode observer are united for longitudinal force observer design, and the Kalman filter is applied to restrain the influence of noise. Via the estimated longitudinal force, an estimation strategy is then proposed based on observer iteration and information fusion, in which the Luenberger observer is applied to achieve the transcendental estimation utilizing less sensor measurements, the extended Kalman filter is used for a posteriori estimation with higher accuracy, and a fuzzy weight controller is used to enhance the adaptive ability of observer system. Simulations and experiments are carried out, and the effectiveness of proposed estimation method is verified.

  5. Variance estimation for generalized Cavalieri estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Johanna Ziegel; Eva B. Vedel Jensen; Karl-Anton Dorph-Petersen

    2011-01-01

    The precision of stereological estimators based on systematic sampling is of great practical importance. This paper presents methods of data-based variance estimation for generalized Cavalieri estimators where errors in sampling positions may occur. Variance estimators are derived under perturbed systematic sampling, systematic sampling with cumulative errors and systematic sampling with random dropouts. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

  6. Impact of nonlinearity on changing the a priori of trace gas profile estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Kulawik

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Non-linear maximum a posteriori (MAP estimates of atmospheric profiles from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES contains a priori information that may vary geographically, which is a confounding factor in the analysis and physical interpretation of an ensemble of profiles. One mitigation strategy is to transform profile estimates to a common prior using a linear operation thereby facilitating the interpretation of profile variability. However, this operation is dependent on the assumption of not worse than moderate non-linearity near the solution of the non-linear estimate. The robustness of this assumption is tested by comparing atmospheric retrievals from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer processed with a uniform prior with those processed with a variable prior and converted to a uniform prior following the non-linear retrieval. Linearly converting the prior following a non-linear retrieval is shown to have a minor effect on the results as compared to a non-linear retrieval using a uniform prior when compared to the expected total error, with less than 10% of the change in the prior ending up as unbiased fluctuations in the profile estimate results.

  7. The Efficacy of Consensus Tree Methods for Summarizing Phylogenetic Relationships from a Posterior Sample of Trees Estimated from Morphological Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Joseph E; Donoghue, Philip C J

    2018-03-01

    Consensus trees are required to summarize trees obtained through MCMC sampling of a posterior distribution, providing an overview of the distribution of estimated parameters such as topology, branch lengths, and divergence times. Numerous consensus tree construction methods are available, each presenting a different interpretation of the tree sample. The rise of morphological clock and sampled-ancestor methods of divergence time estimation, in which times and topology are coestimated, has increased the popularity of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) consensus tree method. The MCC method assumes that the sampled, fully resolved topology with the highest clade credibility is an adequate summary of the most probable clades, with parameter estimates from compatible sampled trees used to obtain the marginal distributions of parameters such as clade ages and branch lengths. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate that MCC trees, and trees constructed using the similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) method, often include poorly supported and incorrect clades when summarizing diffuse posterior samples of trees. We demonstrate that the paucity of information in morphological data sets contributes to the inability of MCC and MAP trees to accurately summarise of the posterior distribution. Conversely, majority-rule consensus (MRC) trees represent a lower proportion of incorrect nodes when summarizing the same posterior samples of trees. Thus, we advocate the use of MRC trees, in place of MCC or MAP trees, in attempts to summarize the results of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of morphological data.

  8. Effective dysphonia detection using feature dimension reduction and kernel density estimation for patients with Parkinson's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Yang

    Full Text Available Detection of dysphonia is useful for monitoring the progression of phonatory impairment for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD, and also helps assess the disease severity. This paper describes the statistical pattern analysis methods to study different vocal measurements of sustained phonations. The feature dimension reduction procedure was implemented by using the sequential forward selection (SFS and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA methods. Four selected vocal measures were projected by the KPCA onto the bivariate feature space, in which the class-conditional feature densities can be approximated with the nonparametric kernel density estimation technique. In the vocal pattern classification experiments, Fisher's linear discriminant analysis (FLDA was applied to perform the linear classification of voice records for healthy control subjects and PD patients, and the maximum a posteriori (MAP decision rule and support vector machine (SVM with radial basis function kernels were employed for the nonlinear classification tasks. Based on the KPCA-mapped feature densities, the MAP classifier successfully distinguished 91.8% voice records, with a sensitivity rate of 0.986, a specificity rate of 0.708, and an area value of 0.94 under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve. The diagnostic performance provided by the MAP classifier was superior to those of the FLDA and SVM classifiers. In addition, the classification results indicated that gender is insensitive to dysphonia detection, and the sustained phonations of PD patients with minimal functional disability are more difficult to be correctly identified.

  9. Most probable dimension value and most flat interval methods for automatic estimation of dimension from time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corana, A.; Bortolan, G.; Casaleggio, A.

    2004-01-01

    We present and compare two automatic methods for dimension estimation from time series. Both methods, based on conceptually different approaches, work on the derivative of the bi-logarithmic plot of the correlation integral versus the correlation length (log-log plot). The first method searches for the most probable dimension values (MPDV) and associates to each of them a possible scaling region. The second one searches for the most flat intervals (MFI) in the derivative of the log-log plot. The automatic procedures include the evaluation of the candidate scaling regions using two reliability indices. The data set used to test the methods consists of time series from known model attractors with and without the addition of noise, structured time series, and electrocardiographic signals from the MIT-BIH ECG database. Statistical analysis of results was carried out by means of paired t-test, and no statistically significant differences were found in the large majority of the trials. Consistent results are also obtained dealing with 'difficult' time series. In general for a more robust and reliable estimate, the use of both methods may represent a good solution when time series from complex systems are analyzed. Although we present results for the correlation dimension only, the procedures can also be used for the automatic estimation of generalized q-order dimensions and pointwise dimension. We think that the proposed methods, eliminating the need of operator intervention, allow a faster and more objective analysis, thus improving the usefulness of dimension analysis for the characterization of time series obtained from complex dynamical systems

  10. SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W; Wang, J [Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, Shanghai (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.

  11. SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W; Wang, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.

  12. Statistical modeling and MAP estimation for body fat quantification with MRI ratio imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wilbur C. K.; Johnson, David H.; Wilson, David L.

    2008-03-01

    We are developing small animal imaging techniques to characterize the kinetics of lipid accumulation/reduction of fat depots in response to genetic/dietary factors associated with obesity and metabolic syndromes. Recently, we developed an MR ratio imaging technique that approximately yields lipid/{lipid + water}. In this work, we develop a statistical model for the ratio distribution that explicitly includes a partial volume (PV) fraction of fat and a mixture of a Rician and multiple Gaussians. Monte Carlo hypothesis testing showed that our model was valid over a wide range of coefficient of variation of the denominator distribution (c.v.: 0-0:20) and correlation coefficient among the numerator and denominator (ρ 0-0.95), which cover the typical values that we found in MRI data sets (c.v.: 0:027-0:063, ρ: 0:50-0:75). Then a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate for the fat percentage per voxel is proposed. Using a digital phantom with many PV voxels, we found that ratio values were not linearly related to PV fat content and that our method accurately described the histogram. In addition, the new method estimated the ground truth within +1.6% vs. +43% for an approach using an uncorrected ratio image, when we simply threshold the ratio image. On the six genetically obese rat data sets, the MAP estimate gave total fat volumes of 279 +/- 45mL, values 21% smaller than those from the uncorrected ratio images, principally due to the non-linear PV effect. We conclude that our algorithm can increase the accuracy of fat volume quantification even in regions having many PV voxels, e.g. ectopic fat depots.

  13. Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

  14. A Posteriori Integration of University CAPE Software Developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tolksdorf, Gregor; Fillinger, Sandra; Wozny, Guenter

    2015-01-01

    This contribution deals with the mutual integration of existing CAPE software products developed at different universities in Germany, Denmark, and Italy. After the motivation MOSAIC is presented as the bridge building the connection between the modelling tool ICAS-MoT and the numerical processin...

  15. Quantum continual measurements and a posteriori collapse on CCR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belavkin, V.P.

    1992-01-01

    A quantum stochastic model for the Markovian dynamics of an open system under the nondemolition unsharp observation which is continuous in time, is given. A stochastic equation for the posterior evolution of a quantum continuously observed system is derived and the spontaneous collapse (stochastically continuous reduction of the wave packet) is described. The quantum Langevin evolution equation is solved for the case of a quasi-free Hamiltonian in the initial CCR algebra with a linear output channel, and the posterior dynamics corresponding to an initial Gaussian state is found. It is shown for an example of the posterior dynamics of a quantum oscillator that any mixed state under a complete nondemolition measurement collapses exponentially to a pure Gaussian one. (orig.)

  16. Enhancing botanical diversity on minesoils: an a posteriori assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W.L. Strong

    2002-06-01

    Plant community and floristic development were compared on smooth- and rough-surfaced minesoil seedbeds within two subalpine coal mines in western Canada. Five plant community-types were identified among 67 sites that were up to 16 years old. Smooth-surface seedbeds had a greater abundance of seeded graminoids and reduced quantities of indigenous species relative to rough-surfaced seedbeds. The average number of taxa, number of indigenous taxa, indigenous forb cover, and shrub frequencies were greater on rough- than smooth-surfaced sites, although total indigenous forb cover was {lt}5% on sites up to 5 years old. Greater indigenous species richness and cover occurred with lower seeding and fertilization rates.

  17. Statistical concepts of a priori and a posteriori risk classification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Valdez, E.A.

    2010-01-01

    Everyday we face all kinds of risks, and insurance is in the business of providing us a means to transfer or share these risks, usually to eliminate or reduce the resulting financial burden, in exchange for a predetermined price or tariff. Actuaries are considered professional experts in the

  18. A (simplified) Bluetooth Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP) receiver

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiphorst, Roelof; Hoeksema, F.W.; Slump, Cornelis H.

    2003-01-01

    In our software-defined radio project we aim at combining two standards: Bluetooth and HiperLAN/2. The Hiper- LAN/2 receiver requires the most computation power in comparison with Bluetooth. We choose to use this computational power also for Bluetooth and look for more advanced demodulation

  19. www.common-metrics.org: a web application to estimate scores from different patient-reported outcome measures on a common scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, H Felix; Rose, Matthias

    2016-10-19

    Recently, a growing number of Item-Response Theory (IRT) models has been published, which allow estimation of a common latent variable from data derived by different Patient Reported Outcomes (PROs). When using data from different PROs, direct estimation of the latent variable has some advantages over the use of sum score conversion tables. It requires substantial proficiency in the field of psychometrics to fit such models using contemporary IRT software. We developed a web application ( http://www.common-metrics.org ), which allows estimation of latent variable scores more easily using IRT models calibrating different measures on instrument independent scales. Currently, the application allows estimation using six different IRT models for Depression, Anxiety, and Physical Function. Based on published item parameters, users of the application can directly estimate latent trait estimates using expected a posteriori (EAP) for sum scores as well as for specific response patterns, Bayes modal (MAP), Weighted likelihood estimation (WLE) and Maximum likelihood (ML) methods and under three different prior distributions. The obtained estimates can be downloaded and analyzed using standard statistical software. This application enhances the usability of IRT modeling for researchers by allowing comparison of the latent trait estimates over different PROs, such as the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression (PHQ-9) and Anxiety (GAD-7) scales, the Center of Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), PROMIS Anxiety and Depression Short Forms and others. Advantages of this approach include comparability of data derived with different measures and tolerance against missing values. The validity of the underlying models needs to be investigated in the future.

  20. Fuel Burn Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano

    2011-01-01

    Conclusions: Validated the fuel estimation procedure using flight test data. A good fuel model can be created if weight and fuel data are available. Error in assumed takeoff weight results in similar amount of error in the fuel estimate. Fuel estimation error bounds can be determined.

  1. Optimal fault signal estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Niemann, H.H.; Saberi, A.; Sannuti, P.

    2002-01-01

    We consider here both fault identification and fault signal estimation. Regarding fault identification, we seek either exact or almost fault identification. On the other hand, regarding fault signal estimation, we seek either $H_2$ optimal, $H_2$ suboptimal or Hinfinity suboptimal estimation. By

  2. A neural flow estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger; Bogason, Gudmundur; Bruun, Erik

    1995-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way to estimate the flow in a micromechanical flow channel. A neural network is used to estimate the delay of random temperature fluctuations induced in a fluid. The design and implementation of a hardware efficient neural flow estimator is described. The system...... is implemented using switched-current technique and is capable of estimating flow in the μl/s range. The neural estimator is built around a multiplierless neural network, containing 96 synaptic weights which are updated using the LMS1-algorithm. An experimental chip has been designed that operates at 5 V...

  3. Methane emissions in East Asia for 2000-2011 estimated using an atmospheric Bayesian inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Stohl, A.; Zhou, L. X.; Dlugokencky, E.; Fukuyama, Y.; Tohjima, Y.; Kim, S.-Y.; Lee, H.; Nisbet, E. G.; Fisher, R. E.; Lowry, D.; Weiss, R. F.; Prinn, R. G.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-05-01

    We present methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia from a Bayesian inversion of CH4 mole fraction and stable isotope (δ13C-CH4) measurements. Emissions were estimated at monthly resolution from 2000 to 2011. A posteriori, the total emission for East Asia increased from 43 ± 4 to 59 ± 4 Tg yr-1 between 2000 and 2011, owing largely to the increase in emissions from China, from 39 ± 4 to 54 ± 4 Tg yr-1, while emissions in other East Asian countries remained relatively stable. For China, South Korea, and Japan, the total emissions were smaller than the prior estimates (i.e., Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.2 FT2010 for anthropogenic emissions) by an average of 29%, 20%, and 23%, respectively. For Mongolia, Taiwan, and North Korea, the total emission was less than 2 Tg yr-1 and was not significantly different from the prior. The largest reductions in emissions, compared to the prior, occurred in summer in regions important for rice agriculture suggesting that this source is overestimated in the prior. Furthermore, an analysis of the isotope data suggests that the prior underestimates emissions from landfills and ruminant animals for winter 2010 to spring 2011 (no data available for other times). The inversion also found a lower average emission trend for China, 1.2 Tg yr-1 compared to 2.8 Tg yr-1 in the prior. This trend was not constant, however, and increased significantly after 2005, up to 2.0 Tg yr-1. Overall, the changes in emissions from China explain up to 40% of the increase in global emissions in the 2000s.

  4. Adjusting estimative prediction limits

    OpenAIRE

    Masao Ueki; Kaoru Fueda

    2007-01-01

    This note presents a direct adjustment of the estimative prediction limit to reduce the coverage error from a target value to third-order accuracy. The adjustment is asymptotically equivalent to those of Barndorff-Nielsen & Cox (1994, 1996) and Vidoni (1998). It has a simpler form with a plug-in estimator of the coverage probability of the estimative limit at the target value. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

  5. Estimation of measurement variances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    In the previous two sessions, it was assumed that the measurement error variances were known quantities when the variances of the safeguards indices were calculated. These known quantities are actually estimates based on historical data and on data generated by the measurement program. Session 34 discusses how measurement error parameters are estimated for different situations. The various error types are considered. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) estimate systematic error variances from standard data; (2) estimate random error variances from data as replicate measurement data; (3) perform a simple analysis of variances to characterize the measurement error structure when biases vary over time

  6. Electrical estimating methods

    CERN Document Server

    Del Pico, Wayne J

    2014-01-01

    Simplify the estimating process with the latest data, materials, and practices Electrical Estimating Methods, Fourth Edition is a comprehensive guide to estimating electrical costs, with data provided by leading construction database RS Means. The book covers the materials and processes encountered by the modern contractor, and provides all the information professionals need to make the most precise estimate. The fourth edition has been updated to reflect the changing materials, techniques, and practices in the field, and provides the most recent Means cost data available. The complexity of el

  7. Effective Dysphonia Detection Using Feature Dimension Reduction and Kernel Density Estimation for Patients with Parkinson’s Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shanshan; Zheng, Fang; Luo, Xin; Cai, Suxian; Wu, Yunfeng; Liu, Kaizhi; Wu, Meihong; Chen, Jian; Krishnan, Sridhar

    2014-01-01

    Detection of dysphonia is useful for monitoring the progression of phonatory impairment for patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD), and also helps assess the disease severity. This paper describes the statistical pattern analysis methods to study different vocal measurements of sustained phonations. The feature dimension reduction procedure was implemented by using the sequential forward selection (SFS) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) methods. Four selected vocal measures were projected by the KPCA onto the bivariate feature space, in which the class-conditional feature densities can be approximated with the nonparametric kernel density estimation technique. In the vocal pattern classification experiments, Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) was applied to perform the linear classification of voice records for healthy control subjects and PD patients, and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) decision rule and support vector machine (SVM) with radial basis function kernels were employed for the nonlinear classification tasks. Based on the KPCA-mapped feature densities, the MAP classifier successfully distinguished 91.8% voice records, with a sensitivity rate of 0.986, a specificity rate of 0.708, and an area value of 0.94 under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The diagnostic performance provided by the MAP classifier was superior to those of the FLDA and SVM classifiers. In addition, the classification results indicated that gender is insensitive to dysphonia detection, and the sustained phonations of PD patients with minimal functional disability are more difficult to be correctly identified. PMID:24586406

  8. Integrated fMRI Preprocessing Framework Using Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Slice-Wise Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basile Pinsard

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Functional MRI acquisition is sensitive to subjects' motion that cannot be fully constrained. Therefore, signal corrections have to be applied a posteriori in order to mitigate the complex interactions between changing tissue localization and magnetic fields, gradients and readouts. To circumvent current preprocessing strategies limitations, we developed an integrated method that correct motion and spatial low-frequency intensity fluctuations at the level of each slice in order to better fit the acquisition processes. The registration of single or multiple simultaneously acquired slices is achieved online by an Iterated Extended Kalman Filter, favoring the robust estimation of continuous motion, while an intensity bias field is non-parametrically fitted. The proposed extraction of gray-matter BOLD activity from the acquisition space to an anatomical group template space, taking into account distortions, better preserves fine-scale patterns of activity. Importantly, the proposed unified framework generalizes to high-resolution multi-slice techniques. When tested on simulated and real data the latter shows a reduction of motion explained variance and signal variability when compared to the conventional preprocessing approach. These improvements provide more stable patterns of activity, facilitating investigation of cerebral information representation in healthy and/or clinical populations where motion is known to impact fine-scale data.

  9. Uncertainty Estimation of Shear-wave Velocity Structure from Bayesian Inversion of Microtremor Array Dispersion Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosso, S. E.; Molnar, S.; Cassidy, J.

    2010-12-01

    Bayesian inversion of microtremor array dispersion data is applied, with evaluation of data errors and model parameterization, to produce the most-probable shear-wave velocity (VS) profile together with quantitative uncertainty estimates. Generally, the most important property characterizing earthquake site response is the subsurface VS structure. The microtremor array method determines phase velocity dispersion of Rayleigh surface waves from multi-instrument recordings of urban noise. Inversion of dispersion curves for VS structure is a non-unique and nonlinear problem such that meaningful evaluation of confidence intervals is required. Quantitative uncertainty estimation requires not only a nonlinear inversion approach that samples models proportional to their probability, but also rigorous estimation of the data error statistics and an appropriate model parameterization. A Bayesian formulation represents the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the posterior probability density (PPD) of the geophysical model parameters. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are used with an efficient implementation of Metropolis-Hastings sampling to provide an unbiased sample from the PPD to compute parameter uncertainties and inter-relationships. Nonparametric estimation of a data error covariance matrix from residual analysis is applied with rigorous a posteriori statistical tests to validate the covariance estimate and the assumption of a Gaussian error distribution. The most appropriate model parameterization is determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), which provides the simplest model consistent with the resolving power of the data. Parameter uncertainties are found to be under-estimated when data error correlations are neglected and when compressional-wave velocity and/or density (nuisance) parameters are fixed in the inversion. Bayesian inversion of microtremor array data is applied at two sites in British Columbia, the area of highest seismic risk in

  10. Evaluation of two "integrated" polarimetric Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) algorithms at C-band

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabary, Pierre; Boumahmoud, Abdel-Amin; Andrieu, Hervé; Thompson, Robert J.; Illingworth, Anthony J.; Le Bouar, Erwan; Testud, Jacques

    2011-08-01

    SummaryTwo so-called "integrated" polarimetric rate estimation techniques, ZPHI ( Testud et al., 2000) and ZZDR ( Illingworth and Thompson, 2005), are evaluated using 12 episodes of the year 2005 observed by the French C-band operational Trappes radar, located near Paris. The term "integrated" means that the concentration parameter of the drop size distribution is assumed to be constant over some area and the algorithms retrieve it using the polarimetric variables in that area. The evaluation is carried out in ideal conditions (no partial beam blocking, no ground-clutter contamination, no bright band contamination, a posteriori calibration of the radar variables ZH and ZDR) using hourly rain gauges located at distances less than 60 km from the radar. Also included in the comparison, for the sake of benchmarking, is a conventional Z = 282 R1.66 estimator, with and without attenuation correction and with and without adjustment by rain gauges as currently done operationally at Météo France. Under those ideal conditions, the two polarimetric algorithms, which rely solely on radar data, appear to perform as well if not better, pending on the measurements conditions (attenuation, rain rates, …), than the conventional algorithms, even when the latter take into account rain gauges through the adjustment scheme. ZZDR with attenuation correction is the best estimator for hourly rain gauge accumulations lower than 5 mm h -1 and ZPHI is the best one above that threshold. A perturbation analysis has been conducted to assess the sensitivity of the various estimators with respect to biases on ZH and ZDR, taking into account the typical accuracy and stability that can be reasonably achieved with modern operational radars these days (1 dB on ZH and 0.2 dB on ZDR). A +1 dB positive bias on ZH (radar too hot) results in a +14% overestimation of the rain rate with the conventional estimator used in this study (Z = 282R1.66), a -19% underestimation with ZPHI and a +23

  11. Perfusion computed tomography imaging of abdominal aortic aneurysms may be of value for patient specific rupture risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontopodis, Nikolaos; Galanakis, Nikolaos; Tsetis, Dimitrios; Ioannou, Christos V

    2017-04-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) continues to pose a significant cause of unexpected mortality in the developed countries with its incidence constantly rising. The indication of elective surgical repair is currently based on the maximum diameter and growth rate criteria which represent an oversimplification of the Law of Laplace stating that the stress exerted in a cylinder or sphere is proportional to its radius. These criteria fail to capture the complex pathophysiology of the aneurismal disease thus often leading to therapeutic inaccuracies (treating large AAAs with a very low actual rupture risk while observing smaller ones with a much greater risk). Aneurysmal disease is mainly a degenerative process leading to loss of structural integrity of the diseased aortic wall which cannot withhold the stresses due to systemic pressurization. Moreover aortic wall degeneration has been shown to be a localized phenomenon and rupture depends on the pointwise comparison of strength and stress rather than a global aortic wall weakening. Ex-vivo mechanical studies have related vessel wall hypoxia to loss of structural endurance and reduced wall strength. Therefore a module to capture in vivo variation of aortic wall blood supply and oxygenation would be of value for the evaluation of AAA rupture risk. Perfusion computed tomography (PCT) imaging represents a novel technique which has been already used to estimate tissue vascularity in several clinical conditions but not aneurismal disease. We hypothesize that PCT could be used as an adjunct tool during AAA diagnostics in order to evaluate aortic wall oxygenation in vivo, therefore providing a possible means to identify weak spots making the lesion amenable to rupture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Maximum likely scale estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loog, Marco; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Markussen, Bo

    2005-01-01

    A maximum likelihood local scale estimation principle is presented. An actual implementation of the estimation principle uses second order moments of multiple measurements at a fixed location in the image. These measurements consist of Gaussian derivatives possibly taken at several scales and/or ...

  13. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e...

  14. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  15. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  16. Coherence in quantum estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorda, Paolo; Allegra, Michele

    2018-01-01

    The geometry of quantum states provides a unifying framework for estimation processes based on quantum probes, and it establishes the ultimate bounds of the achievable precision. We show a relation between the statistical distance between infinitesimally close quantum states and the second order variation of the coherence of the optimal measurement basis with respect to the state of the probe. In quantum phase estimation protocols, this leads to propose coherence as the relevant resource that one has to engineer and control to optimize the estimation precision. Furthermore, the main object of the theory i.e. the symmetric logarithmic derivative, in many cases allows one to identify a proper factorization of the whole Hilbert space in two subsystems. The factorization allows one to discuss the role of coherence versus correlations in estimation protocols; to show how certain estimation processes can be completely or effectively described within a single-qubit subsystem; and to derive lower bounds for the scaling of the estimation precision with the number of probes used. We illustrate how the framework works for both noiseless and noisy estimation procedures, in particular those based on multi-qubit GHZ-states. Finally we succinctly analyze estimation protocols based on zero-temperature critical behavior. We identify the coherence that is at the heart of their efficiency, and we show how it exhibits the non-analyticities and scaling behavior proper of a large class of quantum phase transitions.

  17. Overconfidence in Interval Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soll, Jack B.; Klayman, Joshua

    2004-01-01

    Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This…

  18. Adaptive Spectral Doppler Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gran, Fredrik; Jakobsson, Andreas; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2009-01-01

    . The methods can also provide better quality of the estimated power spectral density (PSD) of the blood signal. Adaptive spectral estimation techniques are known to pro- vide good spectral resolution and contrast even when the ob- servation window is very short. The 2 adaptive techniques are tested......In this paper, 2 adaptive spectral estimation techniques are analyzed for spectral Doppler ultrasound. The purpose is to minimize the observation window needed to estimate the spectrogram to provide a better temporal resolution and gain more flexibility when designing the data acquisition sequence...... and compared with the averaged periodogram (Welch’s method). The blood power spectral capon (BPC) method is based on a standard minimum variance technique adapted to account for both averaging over slow-time and depth. The blood amplitude and phase estimation technique (BAPES) is based on finding a set...

  19. Optomechanical parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, Shan Zheng; Tsang, Mankei; Harris, Glen I; Bowen, Warwick P

    2013-01-01

    We propose a statistical framework for the problem of parameter estimation from a noisy optomechanical system. The Cramér–Rao lower bound on the estimation errors in the long-time limit is derived and compared with the errors of radiometer and expectation–maximization (EM) algorithms in the estimation of the force noise power. When applied to experimental data, the EM estimator is found to have the lowest error and follow the Cramér–Rao bound most closely. Our analytic results are envisioned to be valuable to optomechanical experiment design, while the EM algorithm, with its ability to estimate most of the system parameters, is envisioned to be useful for optomechanical sensing, atomic magnetometry and fundamental tests of quantum mechanics. (paper)

  20. CHANNEL ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    A method includes determining a sequence of first coefficient estimates of a communication channel based on a sequence of pilots arranged according to a known pilot pattern and based on a receive signal, wherein the receive signal is based on the sequence of pilots transmitted over the communicat......A method includes determining a sequence of first coefficient estimates of a communication channel based on a sequence of pilots arranged according to a known pilot pattern and based on a receive signal, wherein the receive signal is based on the sequence of pilots transmitted over...... the communication channel. The method further includes determining a sequence of second coefficient estimates of the communication channel based on a decomposition of the first coefficient estimates in a dictionary matrix and a sparse vector of the second coefficient estimates, the dictionary matrix including...... filter characteristics of at least one known transceiver filter arranged in the communication channel....

  1. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  2. On the use of the GRACE normal equation of inter-satellite tracking data for estimation of soil moisture and groundwater in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Tangdamrongsub

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of soil moisture and groundwater is essential for monitoring the availability of water supply in domestic and agricultural sectors. In order to improve the water storage estimates, previous studies assimilated terrestrial water storage variation (ΔTWS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE into land surface models (LSMs. However, the GRACE-derived ΔTWS was generally computed from the high-level products (e.g. time-variable gravity fields, i.e. level 2, and land grid from the level 3 product. The gridded data products are subjected to several drawbacks such as signal attenuation and/or distortion caused by a posteriori filters and a lack of error covariance information. The post-processing of GRACE data might lead to the undesired alteration of the signal and its statistical property. This study uses the GRACE least-squares normal equation data to exploit the GRACE information rigorously and negate these limitations. Our approach combines GRACE's least-squares normal equation (obtained from ITSG-Grace2016 product with the results from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE model to improve soil moisture and groundwater estimates. This study demonstrates, for the first time, an importance of using the GRACE raw data. The GRACE-combined (GC approach is developed for optimal least-squares combination and the approach is applied to estimate the soil moisture and groundwater over 10 Australian river basins. The results are validated against the satellite soil moisture observation and the in situ groundwater data. Comparing to CABLE, we demonstrate the GC approach delivers evident improvement of water storage estimates, consistently from all basins, yielding better agreement on seasonal and inter-annual timescales. Significant improvement is found in groundwater storage while marginal improvement is observed in surface soil moisture estimates.

  3. On the use of the GRACE normal equation of inter-satellite tracking data for estimation of soil moisture and groundwater in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet; Han, Shin-Chan; Decker, Mark; Yeo, In-Young; Kim, Hyungjun

    2018-03-01

    An accurate estimation of soil moisture and groundwater is essential for monitoring the availability of water supply in domestic and agricultural sectors. In order to improve the water storage estimates, previous studies assimilated terrestrial water storage variation (ΔTWS) derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into land surface models (LSMs). However, the GRACE-derived ΔTWS was generally computed from the high-level products (e.g. time-variable gravity fields, i.e. level 2, and land grid from the level 3 product). The gridded data products are subjected to several drawbacks such as signal attenuation and/or distortion caused by a posteriori filters and a lack of error covariance information. The post-processing of GRACE data might lead to the undesired alteration of the signal and its statistical property. This study uses the GRACE least-squares normal equation data to exploit the GRACE information rigorously and negate these limitations. Our approach combines GRACE's least-squares normal equation (obtained from ITSG-Grace2016 product) with the results from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to improve soil moisture and groundwater estimates. This study demonstrates, for the first time, an importance of using the GRACE raw data. The GRACE-combined (GC) approach is developed for optimal least-squares combination and the approach is applied to estimate the soil moisture and groundwater over 10 Australian river basins. The results are validated against the satellite soil moisture observation and the in situ groundwater data. Comparing to CABLE, we demonstrate the GC approach delivers evident improvement of water storage estimates, consistently from all basins, yielding better agreement on seasonal and inter-annual timescales. Significant improvement is found in groundwater storage while marginal improvement is observed in surface soil moisture estimates.

  4. Estimation of Jump Tails

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Victor

    We propose a new and flexible non-parametric framework for estimating the jump tails of Itô semimartingale processes. The approach is based on a relatively simple-to-implement set of estimating equations associated with the compensator for the jump measure, or its "intensity", that only utilizes...... the weak assumption of regular variation in the jump tails, along with in-fill asymptotic arguments for uniquely identifying the "large" jumps from the data. The estimation allows for very general dynamic dependencies in the jump tails, and does not restrict the continuous part of the process...... and the temporal variation in the stochastic volatility. On implementing the new estimation procedure with actual high-frequency data for the S&P 500 aggregate market portfolio, we find strong evidence for richer and more complex dynamic dependencies in the jump tails than hitherto entertained in the literature....

  5. Bridged Race Population Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Population estimates from "bridging" the 31 race categories used in Census 2000, as specified in the 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) race and ethnicity...

  6. Estimation of measurement variances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaech, J.L.

    1984-01-01

    The estimation of measurement error parameters in safeguards systems is discussed. Both systematic and random errors are considered. A simple analysis of variances to characterize the measurement error structure with biases varying over time is presented

  7. APLIKASI SPLINE ESTIMATOR TERBOBOT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Nyoman Budiantara

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We considered the nonparametric regression model : Zj = X(tj + ej, j = 1,2,…,n, where X(tj is the regression curve. The random error ej are independently distributed normal with a zero mean and a variance s2/bj, bj > 0. The estimation of X obtained by minimizing a Weighted Least Square. The solution of this optimation is a Weighted Spline Polynomial. Further, we give an application of weigted spline estimator in nonparametric regression. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Diberikan model regresi nonparametrik : Zj = X(tj + ej, j = 1,2,…,n, dengan X (tj kurva regresi dan ej sesatan random yang diasumsikan berdistribusi normal dengan mean nol dan variansi s2/bj, bj > 0. Estimasi kurva regresi X yang meminimumkan suatu Penalized Least Square Terbobot, merupakan estimator Polinomial Spline Natural Terbobot. Selanjutnya diberikan suatu aplikasi estimator spline terbobot dalam regresi nonparametrik. Kata kunci: Spline terbobot, Regresi nonparametrik, Penalized Least Square.

  8. Fractional cointegration rank estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasak, Katarzyna; Velasco, Carlos

    the parameters of the model under the null hypothesis of the cointegration rank r = 1, 2, ..., p-1. This step provides consistent estimates of the cointegration degree, the cointegration vectors, the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium parameters and the common trends. In the second step we carry out a sup......-likelihood ratio test of no-cointegration on the estimated p - r common trends that are not cointegrated under the null. The cointegration degree is re-estimated in the second step to allow for new cointegration relationships with different memory. We augment the error correction model in the second step...... to control for stochastic trend estimation effects from the first step. The critical values of the tests proposed depend only on the number of common trends under the null, p - r, and on the interval of the cointegration degrees b allowed, but not on the true cointegration degree b0. Hence, no additional...

  9. Detection of crack-like indications in digital radiography by global optimisation of a probabilistic estimation function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alekseychuk, O.

    2006-07-01

    A new algorithm for detection of longitudinal crack-like indications in radiographic images is developed in this work. Conventional local detection techniques give unsatisfactory results for this task due to the low signal to noise ratio (SNR {proportional_to} 1) of crack-like indications in radiographic images. The usage of global features of crack-like indications provides the necessary noise resistance, but this is connected with prohibitive computational complexities of detection and difficulties in a formal description of the indication shape. Conventionally, the excessive computational complexity of the solution is reduced by usage of heuristics. The heuristics to be used, are selected on a trial and error basis, are problem dependent and do not guarantee the optimal solution. Not following this way is a distinctive feature of the algorithm developed here. Instead, a global characteristic of crack-like indication (the estimation function) is used, whose maximum in the space of all possible positions, lengths and shapes can be found exactly, i.e. without any heuristics. The proposed estimation function is defined as a sum of a posteriori information gains about hypothesis of indication presence in each point along the whole hypothetical indication. The gain in the information about hypothesis of indication presence results from the analysis of the underlying image in the local area. Such an estimation function is theoretically justified and exhibits a desirable behaviour on changing signals. The developed algorithm is implemented in the C++ programming language and tested on synthetic as well as on real images. It delivers good results (high correct detection rate by given false alarm rate) which are comparable to the performance of trained human inspectors.

  10. Detection of crack-like indications in digital radiography by global optimisation of a probabilistic estimation function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alekseychuk, O.

    2006-01-01

    A new algorithm for detection of longitudinal crack-like indications in radiographic images is developed in this work. Conventional local detection techniques give unsatisfactory results for this task due to the low signal to noise ratio (SNR ∝ 1) of crack-like indications in radiographic images. The usage of global features of crack-like indications provides the necessary noise resistance, but this is connected with prohibitive computational complexities of detection and difficulties in a formal description of the indication shape. Conventionally, the excessive computational complexity of the solution is reduced by usage of heuristics. The heuristics to be used, are selected on a trial and error basis, are problem dependent and do not guarantee the optimal solution. Not following this way is a distinctive feature of the algorithm developed here. Instead, a global characteristic of crack-like indication (the estimation function) is used, whose maximum in the space of all possible positions, lengths and shapes can be found exactly, i.e. without any heuristics. The proposed estimation function is defined as a sum of a posteriori information gains about hypothesis of indication presence in each point along the whole hypothetical indication. The gain in the information about hypothesis of indication presence results from the analysis of the underlying image in the local area. Such an estimation function is theoretically justified and exhibits a desirable behaviour on changing signals. The developed algorithm is implemented in the C++ programming language and tested on synthetic as well as on real images. It delivers good results (high correct detection rate by given false alarm rate) which are comparable to the performance of trained human inspectors

  11. Estimation of spectral kurtosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2017-03-01

    Rolling bearings are the most important elements in rotating machinery. Bearing frequently fall out of service for various reasons: heavy loads, unsuitable lubrications, ineffective sealing. Bearing faults may cause a decrease in performance. Analysis of bearing vibration signals has attracted attention in the field of monitoring and fault diagnosis. Bearing vibration signals give rich information for early detection of bearing failures. Spectral kurtosis, SK, is a parameter in frequency domain indicating how the impulsiveness of a signal varies with frequency. Faults in rolling bearings give rise to a series of short impulse responses as the rolling elements strike faults, SK potentially useful for determining frequency bands dominated by bearing fault signals. SK can provide a measure of the distance of the analyzed bearings from a healthy one. SK provides additional information given by the power spectral density (psd). This paper aims to explore the estimation of spectral kurtosis using short time Fourier transform known as spectrogram. The estimation of SK is similar to the estimation of psd. The estimation falls in model-free estimation and plug-in estimator. Some numerical studies using simulations are discussed to support the methodology. Spectral kurtosis of some stationary signals are analytically obtained and used in simulation study. Kurtosis of time domain has been a popular tool for detecting non-normality. Spectral kurtosis is an extension of kurtosis in frequency domain. The relationship between time domain and frequency domain analysis is establish through power spectrum-autocovariance Fourier transform. Fourier transform is the main tool for estimation in frequency domain. The power spectral density is estimated through periodogram. In this paper, the short time Fourier transform of the spectral kurtosis is reviewed, a bearing fault (inner ring and outer ring) is simulated. The bearing response, power spectrum, and spectral kurtosis are plotted to

  12. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  13. Ranking as parameter estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 2 (2009), s. 142-158 ISSN 1745-7645 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 2C06001; GA AV ČR 1ET100750401; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : ranking * Bayesian estimation * negotiation * modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/AS/karny- ranking as parameter estimation.pdf

  14. Maximal combustion temperature estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golodova, E; Shchepakina, E

    2006-01-01

    This work is concerned with the phenomenon of delayed loss of stability and the estimation of the maximal temperature of safe combustion. Using the qualitative theory of singular perturbations and canard techniques we determine the maximal temperature on the trajectories located in the transition region between the slow combustion regime and the explosive one. This approach is used to estimate the maximal temperature of safe combustion in multi-phase combustion models

  15. Single snapshot DOA estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häcker, P.; Yang, B.

    2010-10-01

    In array signal processing, direction of arrival (DOA) estimation has been studied for decades. Many algorithms have been proposed and their performance has been studied thoroughly. Yet, most of these works are focused on the asymptotic case of a large number of snapshots. In automotive radar applications like driver assistance systems, however, only a small number of snapshots of the radar sensor array or, in the worst case, a single snapshot is available for DOA estimation. In this paper, we investigate and compare different DOA estimators with respect to their single snapshot performance. The main focus is on the estimation accuracy and the angular resolution in multi-target scenarios including difficult situations like correlated targets and large target power differences. We will show that some algorithms lose their ability to resolve targets or do not work properly at all. Other sophisticated algorithms do not show a superior performance as expected. It turns out that the deterministic maximum likelihood estimator is a good choice under these hard conditions.

  16. Thermodynamic estimation: Ionic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasser, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Thermodynamics establishes equilibrium relations among thermodynamic parameters (“properties”) and delineates the effects of variation of the thermodynamic functions (typically temperature and pressure) on those parameters. However, classical thermodynamics does not provide values for the necessary thermodynamic properties, which must be established by extra-thermodynamic means such as experiment, theoretical calculation, or empirical estimation. While many values may be found in the numerous collected tables in the literature, these are necessarily incomplete because either the experimental measurements have not been made or the materials may be hypothetical. The current paper presents a number of simple and relible estimation methods for thermodynamic properties, principally for ionic materials. The results may also be used as a check for obvious errors in published values. The estimation methods described are typically based on addition of properties of individual ions, or sums of properties of neutral ion groups (such as “double” salts, in the Simple Salt Approximation), or based upon correlations such as with formula unit volumes (Volume-Based Thermodynamics). - Graphical abstract: Thermodynamic properties of ionic materials may be readily estimated by summation of the properties of individual ions, by summation of the properties of ‘double salts’, and by correlation with formula volume. Such estimates may fill gaps in the literature, and may also be used as checks of published values. This simplicity arises from exploitation of the fact that repulsive energy terms are of short range and very similar across materials, while coulombic interactions provide a very large component of the attractive energy in ionic systems. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Estimation methods for thermodynamic properties of ionic materials are introduced. • Methods are based on summation of single ions, multiple salts, and correlations. • Heat capacity, entropy

  17. Distribution load estimation - DLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppaelae, A. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The load research project has produced statistical information in the form of load models to convert the figures of annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models is limited to a certain network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to make improvements in the load models. Distribution load estimation (DLE) is the method developed here to improve load estimates from the load models. The method is also quite cheap to apply as it utilises information that is already available in SCADA systems

  18. Generalized estimating equations

    CERN Document Server

    Hardin, James W

    2002-01-01

    Although powerful and flexible, the method of generalized linear models (GLM) is limited in its ability to accurately deal with longitudinal and clustered data. Developed specifically to accommodate these data types, the method of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) extends the GLM algorithm to accommodate the correlated data encountered in health research, social science, biology, and other related fields.Generalized Estimating Equations provides the first complete treatment of GEE methodology in all of its variations. After introducing the subject and reviewing GLM, the authors examine th

  19. Digital Quantum Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Majid; Macchiavello, Chiara; Maccone, Lorenzo

    2017-11-01

    Quantum metrology calculates the ultimate precision of all estimation strategies, measuring what is their root-mean-square error (RMSE) and their Fisher information. Here, instead, we ask how many bits of the parameter we can recover; namely, we derive an information-theoretic quantum metrology. In this setting, we redefine "Heisenberg bound" and "standard quantum limit" (the usual benchmarks in the quantum estimation theory) and show that the former can be attained only by sequential strategies or parallel strategies that employ entanglement among probes, whereas parallel-separable strategies are limited by the latter. We highlight the differences between this setting and the RMSE-based one.

  20. Distribution load estimation - DLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppaelae, A [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The load research project has produced statistical information in the form of load models to convert the figures of annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models is limited to a certain network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to make improvements in the load models. Distribution load estimation (DLE) is the method developed here to improve load estimates from the load models. The method is also quite cheap to apply as it utilises information that is already available in SCADA systems

  1. Estimating Delays In ASIC's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Gary; Nesheiwat, Jeffrey; Su, Ling

    1994-01-01

    Verification is important aspect of process of designing application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). Design must not only be functionally accurate, but must also maintain correct timing. IFA, Intelligent Front Annotation program, assists in verifying timing of ASIC early in design process. This program speeds design-and-verification cycle by estimating delays before layouts completed. Written in C language.

  2. Organizational flexibility estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Komarynets, Sofia

    2013-01-01

    By the help of parametric estimation the evaluation scale of organizational flexibility and its parameters was formed. Definite degrees of organizational flexibility and its parameters for the Lviv region enterprises were determined. Grouping of the enterprises under the existing scale was carried out. Special recommendations to correct the enterprises behaviour were given.

  3. On Functional Calculus Estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schwenninger, F.L.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents various results within the field of operator theory that are formulated in estimates for functional calculi. Functional calculus is the general concept of defining operators of the form $f(A)$, where f is a function and $A$ is an operator, typically on a Banach space. Norm

  4. Estimation of vector velocity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2000-01-01

    Using a pulsed ultrasound field, the two-dimensional velocity vector can be determined with the invention. The method uses a transversally modulated ultrasound field for probing the moving medium under investigation. A modified autocorrelation approach is used in the velocity estimation. The new...

  5. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  6. Numerical Estimation in Preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berteletti, Ilaria; Lucangeli, Daniela; Piazza, Manuela; Dehaene, Stanislas; Zorzi, Marco

    2010-01-01

    Children's sense of numbers before formal education is thought to rely on an approximate number system based on logarithmically compressed analog magnitudes that increases in resolution throughout childhood. School-age children performing a numerical estimation task have been shown to increasingly rely on a formally appropriate, linear…

  7. Estimating Gender Wage Gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Judith A.; Thornton, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    Course research projects that use easy-to-access real-world data and that generate findings with which undergraduate students can readily identify are hard to find. The authors describe a project that requires students to estimate the current female-male earnings gap for new college graduates. The project also enables students to see to what…

  8. Fast fundamental frequency estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Jensen, Tobias Lindstrøm; Jensen, Jesper Rindom

    2017-01-01

    Modelling signals as being periodic is common in many applications. Such periodic signals can be represented by a weighted sum of sinusoids with frequencies being an integer multiple of the fundamental frequency. Due to its widespread use, numerous methods have been proposed to estimate the funda...

  9. On Gnostical Estimates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fabián, Zdeněk

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 2 (2017), s. 125-132 ISSN 0973-1377 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : gnostic theory * statistics * robust estimates Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability http://www.ceser.in/ceserp/index.php/ijamas/article/view/4707

  10. Estimation of morbidity effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostro, B.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers have related exposure to ambient air pollution to respiratory morbidity. To be included in this review and analysis, however, several criteria had to be met. First, a careful study design and a methodology that generated quantitative dose-response estimates were required. Therefore, there was a focus on time-series regression analyses relating daily incidence of morbidity to air pollution in a single city or metropolitan area. Studies that used weekly or monthly average concentrations or that involved particulate measurements in poorly characterized metropolitan areas (e.g., one monitor representing a large region) were not included in this review. Second, studies that minimized confounding ad omitted variables were included. For example, research that compared two cities or regions and characterized them as 'high' and 'low' pollution area were not included because of potential confounding by other factors in the respective areas. Third, concern for the effects of seasonality and weather had to be demonstrated. This could be accomplished by either stratifying and analyzing the data by season, by examining the independent effects of temperature and humidity, and/or by correcting the model for possible autocorrelation. A fourth criterion for study inclusion was that the study had to include a reasonably complete analysis of the data. Such analysis would include an careful exploration of the primary hypothesis as well as possible examination of te robustness and sensitivity of the results to alternative functional forms, specifications, and influential data points. When studies reported the results of these alternative analyses, the quantitative estimates that were judged as most representative of the overall findings were those that were summarized in this paper. Finally, for inclusion in the review of particulate matter, the study had to provide a measure of particle concentration that could be converted into PM10, particulate matter below 10

  11. Optimal classifier selection and negative bias in error rate estimation: an empirical study on high-dimensional prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boulesteix Anne-Laure

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In biometric practice, researchers often apply a large number of different methods in a "trial-and-error" strategy to get as much as possible out of their data and, due to publication pressure or pressure from the consulting customer, present only the most favorable results. This strategy may induce a substantial optimistic bias in prediction error estimation, which is quantitatively assessed in the present manuscript. The focus of our work is on class prediction based on high-dimensional data (e.g. microarray data, since such analyses are particularly exposed to this kind of bias. Methods In our study we consider a total of 124 variants of classifiers (possibly including variable selection or tuning steps within a cross-validation evaluation scheme. The classifiers are applied to original and modified real microarray data sets, some of which are obtained by randomly permuting the class labels to mimic non-informative predictors while preserving their correlation structure. Results We assess the minimal misclassification rate over the different variants of classifiers in order to quantify the bias arising when the optimal classifier is selected a posteriori in a data-driven manner. The bias resulting from the parameter tuning (including gene selection parameters as a special case and the bias resulting from the choice of the classification method are examined both separately and jointly. Conclusions The median minimal error rate over the investigated classifiers was as low as 31% and 41% based on permuted uninformative predictors from studies on colon cancer and prostate cancer, respectively. We conclude that the strategy to present only the optimal result is not acceptable because it yields a substantial bias in error rate estimation, and suggest alternative approaches for properly reporting classification accuracy.

  12. Estimation of spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted heat sources using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakkareddy, Pradeep S.; Balaji, C.

    2016-09-01

    This paper employs the Bayesian based Metropolis Hasting - Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to solve inverse heat transfer problem of determining the spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted discrete heat sources with measured temperatures at the bottom of the plate. The Nusselt number is assumed to be of the form Nu = aReb(x/l)c . To input reasonable values of ’a’ and ‘b’ into the inverse problem, first limited two dimensional conjugate convection simulations were done with Comsol. Based on the guidance from this different values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are input to a computationally less complex problem of conjugate conduction in the flat plate (15mm thickness) and temperature distributions at the bottom of the plate which is a more convenient location for measuring the temperatures without disturbing the flow were obtained. Since the goal of this work is to demonstrate the eficiacy of the Bayesian approach to accurately retrieve ‘a’ and ‘b’, numerically generated temperatures with known values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are treated as ‘surrogate’ experimental data. The inverse problem is then solved by repeatedly using the forward solutions together with the MH-MCMC aprroach. To speed up the estimation, the forward model is replaced by an artificial neural network. The mean, maximum-a-posteriori and standard deviation of the estimated parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ are reported. The robustness of the proposed method is examined, by synthetically adding noise to the temperatures.

  13. Reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peker, Kadriye; Köse, Taha Emre; Güray, Beliz; Uysal, Ömer; Erdem, Tamer Lütfi

    2017-04-01

    To culturally adapt the Turkish version of Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Dentistry (TREALD-30) for Turkish-speaking adult dental patients and to evaluate its psychometric properties. After translation and cross-cultural adaptation, TREALD-30 was tested in a sample of 127 adult patients who attended a dental school clinic in Istanbul. Data were collected through clinical examinations and self-completed questionnaires, including TREALD-30, the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP), the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM), two health literacy screening questions, and socio-behavioral characteristics. Psychometric properties were examined using Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Rasch analysis. Internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.91) and test-retest reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.99) were satisfactory for TREALD-30. It exhibited good convergent and predictive validity. Monthly family income, years of education, dental flossing, health literacy, and health literacy skills were found as stronger predictors of patients'oral health literacy (OHL). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed a two-factor model. The Rasch model explained 37.9% of the total variance in this dataset. In addition, TREALD-30 had eleven misfitting items, which indicated evidence of multidimensionality. The reliability indeces provided in Rasch analysis (person separation reliability = 0.91 and expected-a-posteriori/plausible reliability = 0.94) indicated that TREALD-30 had acceptable reliability. TREALD-30 showed satisfactory psychometric properties. It may be used to identify patients with low OHL. Socio-demographic factors, oral health behaviors and health literacy skills should be taken into account when planning future studies to assess the OHL in both clinical and community settings.

  14. Histogram Estimators of Bivariate Densities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Husemann, Joyce A

    1986-01-01

    One-dimensional fixed-interval histogram estimators of univariate probability density functions are less efficient than the analogous variable-interval estimators which are constructed from intervals...

  15. A probabilistic approach for the estimation of earthquake source parameters from spectral inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supino, M.; Festa, G.; Zollo, A.

    2017-12-01

    The amplitude spectrum of a seismic signal related to an earthquake source carries information about the size of the rupture, moment, stress and energy release. Furthermore, it can be used to characterize the Green's function of the medium crossed by the seismic waves. We describe the earthquake amplitude spectrum assuming a generalized Brune's (1970) source model, and direct P- and S-waves propagating in a layered velocity model, characterized by a frequency-independent Q attenuation factor. The observed displacement spectrum depends indeed on three source parameters, the seismic moment (through the low-frequency spectral level), the corner frequency (that is a proxy of the fault length) and the high-frequency decay parameter. These parameters are strongly correlated each other and with the quality factor Q; a rigorous estimation of the associated uncertainties and parameter resolution is thus needed to obtain reliable estimations.In this work, the uncertainties are characterized adopting a probabilistic approach for the parameter estimation. Assuming an L2-norm based misfit function, we perform a global exploration of the parameter space to find the absolute minimum of the cost function and then we explore the cost-function associated joint a-posteriori probability density function around such a minimum, to extract the correlation matrix of the parameters. The global exploration relies on building a Markov chain in the parameter space and on combining a deterministic minimization with a random exploration of the space (basin-hopping technique). The joint pdf is built from the misfit function using the maximum likelihood principle and assuming a Gaussian-like distribution of the parameters. It is then computed on a grid centered at the global minimum of the cost-function. The numerical integration of the pdf finally provides mean, variance and correlation matrix associated with the set of best-fit parameters describing the model. Synthetic tests are performed to

  16. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  17. Distribution load estimation (DLE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    The load research has produced customer class load models to convert the customers` annual energy consumption to hourly load values. The reliability of load models applied from a nation-wide sample is limited in any specific network because many local circumstances are different from utility to utility and time to time. Therefore there is a need to find improvements to the load models or, in general, improvements to the load estimates. In Distribution Load Estimation (DLE) the measurements from the network are utilized to improve the customer class load models. The results of DLE will be new load models that better correspond to the loading of the distribution network but are still close to the original load models obtained by load research. The principal data flow of DLE is presented

  18. Estimating ISABELLE shielding requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, A.J.; Thorndike, A.M.

    1976-01-01

    Estimates were made of the shielding thicknesses required at various points around the ISABELLE ring. Both hadron and muon requirements are considered. Radiation levels at the outside of the shield and at the BNL site boundary are kept at or below 1000 mrem per year and 5 mrem/year respectively. Muon requirements are based on the Wang formula for pion spectra, and the hadron requirements on the hadron cascade program CYLKAZ of Ranft. A muon shield thickness of 77 meters of sand is indicated outside the ring in one area, and hadron shields equivalent to from 2.7 to 5.6 meters in thickness of sand above the ring. The suggested safety allowance would increase these values to 86 meters and 4.0 to 7.2 meters respectively. There are many uncertainties in such estimates, but these last figures are considered to be rather conservative

  19. Variance Function Estimation. Revision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    UNLSIFIED RFOSR-TR-87-±112 F49620-85-C-O144 F/C 12/3 NL EEEEEEh LOUA28~ ~ L53 11uLoo MICROOP REOUINTS-’HR ------ N L E U INARF-% - IS %~1 %i % 0111...and 9 jointly. If 7,, 0. and are any preliminary estimators for 71, 6. and 3. define 71 and 6 to be the solutions of (4.1) N1 IN2 (7., ’ Td " ~ - / =0P

  20. Estimating Risk Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Aswath Damodaran

    1999-01-01

    Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

  1. Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Carlos Bencomo; Hugo J. Montesinos; Hugo M. Montesinos; Jose Roberto Rondo

    2011-01-01

    Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Late...

  2. Chernobyl source term estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudiksen, P.H.; Harvey, T.F.; Lange, R.

    1990-09-01

    The Chernobyl source term available for long-range transport was estimated by integration of radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling and by reactor core radionuclide inventory estimation in conjunction with WASH-1400 release fractions associated with specific chemical groups. The model simulations revealed that the radioactive cloud became segmented during the first day, with the lower section heading toward Scandinavia and the upper part heading in a southeasterly direction with subsequent transport across Asia to Japan, the North Pacific, and the west coast of North America. By optimizing the agreement between the observed cloud arrival times and duration of peak concentrations measured over Europe, Japan, Kuwait, and the US with the model predicted concentrations, it was possible to derive source term estimates for those radionuclides measured in airborne radioactivity. This was extended to radionuclides that were largely unmeasured in the environment by performing a reactor core radionuclide inventory analysis to obtain release fractions for the various chemical transport groups. These analyses indicated that essentially all of the noble gases, 60% of the radioiodines, 40% of the radiocesium, 10% of the tellurium and about 1% or less of the more refractory elements were released. These estimates are in excellent agreement with those obtained on the basis of worldwide deposition measurements. The Chernobyl source term was several orders of magnitude greater than those associated with the Windscale and TMI reactor accidents. However, the 137 Cs from the Chernobyl event is about 6% of that released by the US and USSR atmospheric nuclear weapon tests, while the 131 I and 90 Sr released by the Chernobyl accident was only about 0.1% of that released by the weapon tests. 13 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs

  3. Estimating Corporate Yield Curves

    OpenAIRE

    Antionio Diaz; Frank Skinner

    2001-01-01

    This paper represents the first study of retail deposit spreads of UK financial institutions using stochastic interest rate modelling and the market comparable approach. By replicating quoted fixed deposit rates using the Black Derman and Toy (1990) stochastic interest rate model, we find that the spread between fixed and variable rates of interest can be modeled (and priced) using an interest rate swap analogy. We also find that we can estimate an individual bank deposit yield curve as a spr...

  4. Estimation of inspection effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullen, M.F.; Wincek, M.A.

    1979-06-01

    An overview of IAEA inspection activities is presented, and the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of an inspection is discussed. Two models are described - an effort model and an effectiveness model. The effort model breaks the IAEA's inspection effort into components; the amount of effort required for each component is estimated; and the total effort is determined by summing the effort for each component. The effectiveness model quantifies the effectiveness of inspections in terms of probabilities of detection and quantities of material to be detected, if diverted over a specific period. The method is applied to a 200 metric ton per year low-enriched uranium fuel fabrication facility. A description of the model plant is presented, a safeguards approach is outlined, and sampling plans are calculated. The required inspection effort is estimated and the results are compared to IAEA estimates. Some other applications of the method are discussed briefly. Examples are presented which demonstrate how the method might be useful in formulating guidelines for inspection planning and in establishing technical criteria for safeguards implementation

  5. Qualitative Robustness in Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Nasser

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} Qualitative robustness, influence function, and breakdown point are three main concepts to judge an estimator from the viewpoint of robust estimation. It is important as well as interesting to study relation among them. This article attempts to present the concept of qualitative robustness as forwarded by first proponents and its later development. It illustrates intricacies of qualitative robustness and its relation with consistency, and also tries to remove commonly believed misunderstandings about relation between influence function and qualitative robustness citing some examples from literature and providing a new counter-example. At the end it places a useful finite and a simulated version of   qualitative robustness index (QRI. In order to assess the performance of the proposed measures, we have compared fifteen estimators of correlation coefficient using simulated as well as real data sets.

  6. Estimating directional epistasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Rouzic, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    Epistasis, i.e., the fact that gene effects depend on the genetic background, is a direct consequence of the complexity of genetic architectures. Despite this, most of the models used in evolutionary and quantitative genetics pay scant attention to genetic interactions. For instance, the traditional decomposition of genetic effects models epistasis as noise around the evolutionarily-relevant additive effects. Such an approach is only valid if it is assumed that there is no general pattern among interactions—a highly speculative scenario. Systematic interactions generate directional epistasis, which has major evolutionary consequences. In spite of its importance, directional epistasis is rarely measured or reported by quantitative geneticists, not only because its relevance is generally ignored, but also due to the lack of simple, operational, and accessible methods for its estimation. This paper describes conceptual and statistical tools that can be used to estimate directional epistasis from various kinds of data, including QTL mapping results, phenotype measurements in mutants, and artificial selection responses. As an illustration, I measured directional epistasis from a real-life example. I then discuss the interpretation of the estimates, showing how they can be used to draw meaningful biological inferences. PMID:25071828

  7. Adaptive Nonparametric Variance Estimation for a Ratio Estimator ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kernel estimators for smooth curves require modifications when estimating near end points of the support, both for practical and asymptotic reasons. The construction of such boundary kernels as solutions of variational problem is a difficult exercise. For estimating the error variance of a ratio estimator, we suggest an ...

  8. 2-D left ventricular flow estimation by combining speckle tracking with Navier-Stokes-based regularization: an in silico, in vitro and in vivo study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hang; Bijnens, Nathalie; Coisne, Damien; Lugiez, Mathieu; Rutten, Marcel; D'hooge, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Despite the availability of multiple ultrasound approaches to left ventricular (LV) flow characterization in two dimensions, this technique remains in its childhood and further developments seem warranted. This article describes a new methodology for tracking the 2-D LV flow field based on ultrasound data. Hereto, a standard speckle tracking algorithm was modified by using a dynamic kernel embedding Navier-Stokes-based regularization in an iterative manner. The performance of the proposed approach was first quantified in synthetic ultrasound data based on a computational fluid dynamics model of LV flow. Next, an experimental flow phantom setup mimicking the normal human heart was used for experimental validation by employing simultaneous optical particle image velocimetry as a standard reference technique. Finally, the applicability of the approach was tested in a clinical setting. On the basis of the simulated data, pointwise evaluation of the estimated velocity vectors correlated well (mean r = 0.84) with the computational fluid dynamics measurement. During the filling period of the left ventricle, the properties of the main vortex obtained from the proposed method were also measured, and their correlations with the reference measurement were also calculated (radius, r = 0.96; circulation, r = 0.85; weighted center, r = 0.81). In vitro results at 60 bpm during one cardiac cycle confirmed that the algorithm properly measures typical characteristics of the vortex (radius, r = 0.60; circulation, r = 0.81; weighted center, r = 0.92). Preliminary qualitative results on clinical data revealed physiologic flow fields. Copyright © 2015 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Relaxation of Some Classes of Variational Integrals with Pointwise Continuous-Type Gradient Constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Arcangelis, Riccardo; Zappale, Elvira

    2005-01-01

    Relaxation problems for a functional are analyzed. Identity and integral representation results are proved under continuity-type assumptions, together with the description of the common density by means of convexification arguments. Classical relaxation results are extended to the case of the continuous variable dependence, and the non-identity features described in the measurable dependence case are shown to be non-occurring. Proofs are based on the properties of certain limits of multi-functions, and on an approximation result for functions. Results in more general settings are also obtained

  10. BCG: a code for calculating pointwise neutron spectra and criticality in fast reactor cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leite, S.B.; Caldeira, A.D.; Garcia, R.D.M.

    1988-02-01

    The BCG code for determining the space and energy neutron flux distribution and criticality of fast reactor cylindrical cells is presented. The code solves the unidimensional neutron transport equation together with interface current relations at each energy in an unionized grid prepared for the cell and at an arbitrary number of spatial zones. While the spatial resolution is user specified, the energy dependence of the flux distribution is resolved according to the degree of variation in the reconstructed total microscopic cross sections of the atomic species in the cell. Results for a defined sample problem illustrate the high resolution and accuracy that can be obtained with the code. (author) [pt

  11. Rotational hypersurfaces with $L_r$-pointwise 1-type Gauss map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akram Mohammadpouri

    2018-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study hypersurfaces in $\\E^{n+1}$ which Gauss map $G$ satisfies the equation $L_rG = f(G + C$ for a smooth function $f$ and a constant vector $C$, where $L_r$ is the linearized operator of the $(r + 1$th mean curvature of the hypersurface, i.e., $L_r(f=tr(P_r\\circ\

  12. Pointwise decay of stationary rotational viscous incompressible flows with nonzero velocity at infinity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Deuring, P.; Kračmar, S.; Nečasová, Šárka

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 255, č. 7 (2013), s. 1576-1606 ISSN 0022-0396 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP201/11/1304 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : stationary incompressible Navier-Stokes system * rotating body * fundamental solution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.570, year: 2013 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022039613002106

  13. Three-dimensional microarchitected materials and devices using nanoparticle assembly by pointwise spatial printing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Mohammad Sadeq; Hu, Chunshan; Panat, Rahul

    2017-03-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) hierarchical materials are important to a wide range of emerging technological applications. We report a method to synthesize complex 3D microengineered materials, such as microlattices, with nearly fully dense truss elements with a minimum diameter of approximately 20 μm and having high aspect ratios (up to 20:1) without using any templating or supporting materials. By varying the postprocessing conditions, we have also introduced an additional control over the internal porosity of the truss elements to demonstrate a hierarchical porous structure with an overall void size and feature size control of over five orders of magnitudes in length scale. The method uses direct printing of nanoparticle dispersions using the Aerosol Jet technology in 3D space without templating or supporting materials followed by binder removal and sintering. In addition to 3D microlattices, we have also demonstrated directly printed stretchable interconnects, spirals, and pillars. This assembly method could be implemented by a variety of microdroplet generation methods for fast and large-scale fabrication of the hierarchical materials for applications in tissue engineering, ultralight or multifunctional materials, microfluidics, and micro-optoelectronics.

  14. A Review of Point-Wise Motion Tracking Algorithms for Fetal Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikop, Shivaprasad; Koulagi, Girish; Kumbara, Ankita; Geethanath, Sairam

    2016-01-01

    We review recent feature-based tracking algorithms as applied to fetal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Motion in fetal MRI is an active and challenging area of research, but the challenge can be mitigated by strategies related to patient setup, acquisition, reconstruction, and image processing. We focus on fetal motion correction through methods based on tracking algorithms for registration of slices with similar anatomy in multiple volumes. We describe five motion detection algorithms based on corner detection and region-based methods through pseudocodes, illustrating the results of their application to fetal MRI. We compare the performance of these methods on the basis of error in registration and minimum number of feature points required for registration. Harris, a corner detection method, provides similar error when compared to the other methods and has the lowest number of feature points required at that error level. We do not discuss group-wise methods here. Finally, we attempt to communicate the application of available feature extraction methods to fetal MRI.

  15. A Software module for pointwise calibration of free form objevts and for uncertainty representation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Savio, Enrico; Farmer, A.F.; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    . The Centre for Geometrical Metrology (CGM) at the Technical University of Denmark takes care of free form measurements, in collaboration with DIMEG, University of Padova, Italy. The present report describes a software module, MULTICAL, to be used for the calibration of free form objects. The purpose...... of the software is to calculate the uncertainty of free form measurements according to the method described in the draft standard ISO/WD 15530-6....

  16. From cutting-edge pointwise cross-section to groupwise reaction rate: A primer

    OpenAIRE

    Sublet Jean-Christophe; Fleming Michael; Gilbert Mark R.

    2017-01-01

    The nuclear research and development community has a history of using both integral and differential experiments to support accurate lattice-reactor, nuclear reactor criticality and shielding simulations, as well as verification and validation efforts of cross sections and emitted particle spectra. An important aspect to this type of analysis is the proper consideration of the contribution of the neutron spectrum in its entirety, with correct propagation of uncertainties and standard deviatio...

  17. STEEP4 code for computation of specific thermonuclear reaction rates from pointwise cross sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, D.R.; Dei, D.E.; Husseiny, A.A.; Sabri, Z.A.; Hale, G.M.

    1976-05-01

    A code module, STEEP4, is developed to calculate the fusion reaction rates in terms of the specific reactivity [sigma v] which is the product of cross section and relative velocity averaged over the actual ion distributions of the interacting particles in the plasma. The module is structured in a way suitable for incorporation in thermonuclear burn codes to provide rapid and yet relatively accurate on-line computation of [sigma v] as a function of plasma parameters. Ion distributions are modified to include slowing-down contributions which are characterized in terms of plasma parameters. Rapid and accurate algorithms are used for integrating [sigma v] from cross sections and spectra. The main program solves for [sigma v] by the method of steepest descent. However, options are provided to use Gauss-Hermite and dense trapezoidal quadrature integration techniques. Options are also provided for rapid calculation of screening effects on specific reaction rates. Although such effects are not significant in cases of plasmas of laboratory interest, the options are included to increase the range of applicability of the code. Gamow penetration form, log-log interpolation, and cubic interpolation routines are included to provide the interpolated values of cross sections

  18. Estimation of Lung Ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Kai; Cao, Kunlin; Du, Kaifang; Amelon, Ryan; Christensen, Gary E.; Raghavan, Madhavan; Reinhardt, Joseph M.

    Since the primary function of the lung is gas exchange, ventilation can be interpreted as an index of lung function in addition to perfusion. Injury and disease processes can alter lung function on a global and/or a local level. MDCT can be used to acquire multiple static breath-hold CT images of the lung taken at different lung volumes, or with proper respiratory control, 4DCT images of the lung reconstructed at different respiratory phases. Image registration can be applied to this data to estimate a deformation field that transforms the lung from one volume configuration to the other. This deformation field can be analyzed to estimate local lung tissue expansion, calculate voxel-by-voxel intensity change, and make biomechanical measurements. The physiologic significance of the registration-based measures of respiratory function can be established by comparing to more conventional measurements, such as nuclear medicine or contrast wash-in/wash-out studies with CT or MR. An important emerging application of these methods is the detection of pulmonary function change in subjects undergoing radiation therapy (RT) for lung cancer. During RT, treatment is commonly limited to sub-therapeutic doses due to unintended toxicity to normal lung tissue. Measurement of pulmonary function may be useful as a planning tool during RT planning, may be useful for tracking the progression of toxicity to nearby normal tissue during RT, and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment post-therapy. This chapter reviews the basic measures to estimate regional ventilation from image registration of CT images, the comparison of them to the existing golden standard and the application in radiation therapy.

  19. Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Ternès

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

  20. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  1. Estimating NHL Scoring Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Buttrey, Samuel E.; Washburn, Alan R.; Price, Wilson L.; Operations Research

    2011-01-01

    The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1334 We propose a model to estimate the rates at which NHL teams score and yield goals. In the model, goals occur as if from a Poisson process whose rate depends on the two teams playing, the home-ice advantage, and the manpower (power-play, short-handed) situation. Data on all the games from the 2008-2009 season was downloaded and processed into a form suitable for the analysis. The model...

  2. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  3. Estimating Gear Teeth Stiffness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Leergaard

    2013-01-01

    The estimation of gear stiffness is important for determining the load distribution between the gear teeth when two sets of teeth are in contact. Two factors have a major influence on the stiffness; firstly the boundary condition through the gear rim size included in the stiffness calculation...... and secondly the size of the contact. In the FE calculation the true gear tooth root profile is applied. The meshing stiffness’s of gears are highly non-linear, it is however found that the stiffness of an individual tooth can be expressed in a linear form assuming that the contact length is constant....

  4. Mixtures Estimation and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mengersen, Kerrie; Titterington, Mike

    2011-01-01

    This book uses the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm to simultaneously estimate the missing data and unknown parameter(s) associated with a data set. The parameters describe the component distributions of the mixture; the distributions may be continuous or discrete. The editors provide a complete account of the applications, mathematical structure and statistical analysis of finite mixture distributions along with MCMC computational methods, together with a range of detailed discussions covering the applications of the methods and features chapters from the leading experts on the subject

  5. Robust Wave Resource Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lavelle, John; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2013-01-01

    density estimates of the PDF as a function both of Hm0 and Tp, and Hm0 and T0;2, together with the mean wave power per unit crest length, Pw, as a function of Hm0 and T0;2. The wave elevation parameters, from which the wave parameters are calculated, are filtered to correct or remove spurious data....... An overview is given of the methods used to do this, and a method for identifying outliers of the wave elevation data, based on the joint distribution of wave elevations and accelerations, is presented. The limitations of using a JONSWAP spectrum to model the measured wave spectra as a function of Hm0 and T0......;2 or Hm0 and Tp for the Hanstholm site data are demonstrated. As an alternative, the non-parametric loess method, which does not rely on any assumptions about the shape of the wave elevation spectra, is used to accurately estimate Pw as a function of Hm0 and T0;2....

  6. Estimations of actual availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molan, M.; Molan, G.

    2001-01-01

    Adaptation of working environment (social, organizational, physical and physical) should assure higher level of workers' availability and consequently higher level of workers' performance. A special theoretical model for description of connections between environmental factors, human availability and performance was developed and validated. The central part of the model is evaluations of human actual availability in the real working situation or fitness for duties self-estimation. The model was tested in different working environments. On the numerous (2000) workers, standardized values and critical limits for an availability questionnaire were defined. Standardized method was used in identification of the most important impact of environmental factors. Identified problems were eliminated by investments in the organization in modification of selection and training procedures in humanization of working .environment. For workers with behavioural and health problems individual consultancy was offered. The described method is a tool for identification of impacts. In combination with behavioural analyses and mathematical analyses of connections, it offers possibilities to keep adequate level of human availability and fitness for duty in each real working situation. The model should be a tool for achieving adequate level of nuclear safety by keeping the adequate level of workers' availability and fitness for duty. For each individual worker possibility for estimation of level of actual fitness for duty is possible. Effects of prolonged work and additional tasks should be evaluated. Evaluations of health status effects and ageing are possible on the individual level. (author)

  7. Comparison of variance estimators for metaanalysis of instrumental variable estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, A. F.; Hingorani, A. D.; Jefferis, B. J.; White, J.; Groenwold, R. H H; Dudbridge, F.; Ben-Shlomo, Y.; Chaturvedi, N.; Engmann, J.; Hughes, A.; Humphries, S.; Hypponen, E.; Kivimaki, M.; Kuh, D.; Kumari, M.; Menon, U.; Morris, R.; Power, C.; Price, J.; Wannamethee, G.; Whincup, P.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Mendelian randomization studies perform instrumental variable (IV) analysis using genetic IVs. Results of individual Mendelian randomization studies can be pooled through meta-analysis. We explored how different variance estimators influence the meta-analysed IV estimate. Methods: Two

  8. Introduction to variance estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Wolter, Kirk M

    2007-01-01

    We live in the information age. Statistical surveys are used every day to determine or evaluate public policy and to make important business decisions. Correct methods for computing the precision of the survey data and for making inferences to the target population are absolutely essential to sound decision making. Now in its second edition, Introduction to Variance Estimation has for more than twenty years provided the definitive account of the theory and methods for correct precision calculations and inference, including examples of modern, complex surveys in which the methods have been used successfully. The book provides instruction on the methods that are vital to data-driven decision making in business, government, and academe. It will appeal to survey statisticians and other scientists engaged in the planning and conduct of survey research, and to those analyzing survey data and charged with extracting compelling information from such data. It will appeal to graduate students and university faculty who...

  9. Estimating Discount Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Booth

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.

  10. Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (TEST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (TEST) was developed to allow users to easily estimate the toxicity of chemicals using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSARs) methodologies. QSARs are mathematical models used to predict measures of toxicity from the physical c...

  11. Sampling and estimating recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1999-01-01

    Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

  12. Flexible and efficient estimating equations for variogram estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying; Chang, Xiaohui; Guan, Yongtao

    2018-01-01

    Variogram estimation plays a vastly important role in spatial modeling. Different methods for variogram estimation can be largely classified into least squares methods and likelihood based methods. A general framework to estimate the variogram through a set of estimating equations is proposed. This approach serves as an alternative approach to likelihood based methods and includes commonly used least squares approaches as its special cases. The proposed method is highly efficient as a low dimensional representation of the weight matrix is employed. The statistical efficiency of various estimators is explored and the lag effect is examined. An application to a hydrology dataset is also presented.

  13. Flexible and efficient estimating equations for variogram estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying

    2018-01-11

    Variogram estimation plays a vastly important role in spatial modeling. Different methods for variogram estimation can be largely classified into least squares methods and likelihood based methods. A general framework to estimate the variogram through a set of estimating equations is proposed. This approach serves as an alternative approach to likelihood based methods and includes commonly used least squares approaches as its special cases. The proposed method is highly efficient as a low dimensional representation of the weight matrix is employed. The statistical efficiency of various estimators is explored and the lag effect is examined. An application to a hydrology dataset is also presented.

  14. Improved Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, D. D.

    1982-01-01

    Techniques refined for estimating heat of vaporization and other parameters from molecular structure. Using parabolic equation with three adjustable parameters, heat of vaporization can be used to estimate boiling point, and vice versa. Boiling points and vapor pressures for some nonpolar liquids were estimated by improved method and compared with previously reported values. Technique for estimating thermodynamic parameters should make it easier for engineers to choose among candidate heat-exchange fluids for thermochemical cycles.

  15. State estimation in networked systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijs, J.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis considers state estimation strategies for networked systems. State estimation refers to a method for computing the unknown state of a dynamic process by combining sensor measurements with predictions from a process model. The most well known method for state estimation is the Kalman

  16. Global Polynomial Kernel Hazard Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hiabu, Munir; Miranda, Maria Dolores Martínez; Nielsen, Jens Perch

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a new bias reducing method for kernel hazard estimation. The method is called global polynomial adjustment (GPA). It is a global correction which is applicable to any kernel hazard estimator. The estimator works well from a theoretical point of view as it asymptotically redu...

  17. Uveal melanoma: Estimating prognosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swathi Kaliki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Uveal melanoma is the most common primary malignant tumor of the eye in adults, predominantly found in Caucasians. Local tumor control of uveal melanoma is excellent, yet this malignancy is associated with relatively high mortality secondary to metastasis. Various clinical, histopathological, cytogenetic features and gene expression features help in estimating the prognosis of uveal melanoma. The clinical features associated with poor prognosis in patients with uveal melanoma include older age at presentation, male gender, larger tumor basal diameter and thickness, ciliary body location, diffuse tumor configuration, association with ocular/oculodermal melanocytosis, extraocular tumor extension, and advanced tumor staging by American Joint Committee on Cancer classification. Histopathological features suggestive of poor prognosis include epithelioid cell type, high mitotic activity, higher values of mean diameter of ten largest nucleoli, higher microvascular density, extravascular matrix patterns, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, tumor-infiltrating macrophages, higher expression of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor, and higher expression of human leukocyte antigen Class I and II. Monosomy 3, 1p loss, 6q loss, and 8q and those classified as Class II by gene expression are predictive of poor prognosis of uveal melanoma. In this review, we discuss the prognostic factors of uveal melanoma. A database search was performed on PubMed, using the terms "uvea," "iris," "ciliary body," "choroid," "melanoma," "uveal melanoma" and "prognosis," "metastasis," "genetic testing," "gene expression profiling." Relevant English language articles were extracted, reviewed, and referenced appropriately.

  18. Approaches to estimating decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.I.

    1990-07-01

    The chronological development of methodology for estimating the cost of nuclear reactor power station decommissioning is traced from the mid-1970s through 1990. Three techniques for developing decommissioning cost estimates are described. The two viable techniques are compared by examining estimates developed for the same nuclear power station using both methods. The comparison shows that the differences between the estimates are due largely to differing assumptions regarding the size of the utility and operating contractor overhead staffs. It is concluded that the two methods provide bounding estimates on a range of manageable costs, and provide reasonable bases for the utility rate adjustments necessary to pay for future decommissioning costs. 6 refs

  19. Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models using Prediction-based Estimating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor

    to the performance of the GMM estimator based on conditional moments of integrated volatility from Bollerslev and Zhou (2002). The case where the observed log-price process is contaminated by i.i.d. market microstructure (MMS) noise is also investigated. First, the impact of MMS noise on the parameter estimates from......In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared...... to correctly account for the noise are investigated. Our Monte Carlo study shows that the estimator based on PBEFs outperforms the GMM estimator, both in the setting with and without MMS noise. Finally, an empirical application investigates the possible challenges and general performance of applying the PBEF...

  20. A new estimator for vector velocity estimation [medical ultrasonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2001-01-01

    A new estimator for determining the two-dimensional velocity vector using a pulsed ultrasound field is derived. The estimator uses a transversely modulated ultrasound field for probing the moving medium under investigation. A modified autocorrelation approach is used in the velocity estimation...... be introduced, and the velocity estimation is done at a fixed depth in tissue to reduce the influence of a spatial velocity spread. Examples for different velocity vectors and field conditions are shown using both simple and more complex field simulations. A relative accuracy of 10.1% is obtained...

  1. Simultaneous estimation of cross-validation errors in least squares collocation applied for statistical testing and evaluation of the noise variance components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behnabian, Behzad; Mashhadi Hossainali, Masoud; Malekzadeh, Ahad

    2018-02-01

    The cross-validation technique is a popular method to assess and improve the quality of prediction by least squares collocation (LSC). We present a formula for direct estimation of the vector of cross-validation errors (CVEs) in LSC which is much faster than element-wise CVE computation. We show that a quadratic form of CVEs follows Chi-squared distribution. Furthermore, a posteriori noise variance factor is derived by the quadratic form of CVEs. In order to detect blunders in the observations, estimated standardized CVE is proposed as the test statistic which can be applied when noise variances are known or unknown. We use LSC together with the methods proposed in this research for interpolation of crustal subsidence in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that after detection and removing outliers, the root mean square (RMS) of CVEs and estimated noise standard deviation are reduced about 51 and 59%, respectively. In addition, RMS of LSC prediction error at data points and RMS of estimated noise of observations are decreased by 39 and 67%, respectively. However, RMS of LSC prediction error on a regular grid of interpolation points covering the area is only reduced about 4% which is a consequence of sparse distribution of data points for this case study. The influence of gross errors on LSC prediction results is also investigated by lower cutoff CVEs. It is indicated that after elimination of outliers, RMS of this type of errors is also reduced by 19.5% for a 5 km radius of vicinity. We propose a method using standardized CVEs for classification of dataset into three groups with presumed different noise variances. The noise variance components for each of the groups are estimated using restricted maximum-likelihood method via Fisher scoring technique. Finally, LSC assessment measures were computed for the estimated heterogeneous noise variance model and compared with those of the homogeneous model. The advantage of the proposed method is the

  2. Efficient Bayesian parameter estimation with implicit sampling and surrogate modeling for a vadose zone hydrological problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Pau, G. S. H.; Finsterle, S.

    2015-12-01

    Parameter inversion involves inferring the model parameter values based on sparse observations of some observables. To infer the posterior probability distributions of the parameters, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are typically used. However, the large number of forward simulations needed and limited computational resources limit the complexity of the hydrological model we can use in these methods. In view of this, we studied the implicit sampling (IS) method, an efficient importance sampling technique that generates samples in the high-probability region of the posterior distribution and thus reduces the number of forward simulations that we need to run. For a pilot-point inversion of a heterogeneous permeability field based on a synthetic ponded infiltration experiment simu­lated with TOUGH2 (a subsurface modeling code), we showed that IS with linear map provides an accurate Bayesian description of the parameterized permeability field at the pilot points with just approximately 500 forward simulations. We further studied the use of surrogate models to improve the computational efficiency of parameter inversion. We implemented two reduced-order models (ROMs) for the TOUGH2 forward model. One is based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), of which the coefficients are obtained using the sparse Bayesian learning technique to mitigate the "curse of dimensionality" of the PCE terms. The other model is Gaussian process regression (GPR) for which different covariance, likelihood and inference models are considered. Preliminary results indicate that ROMs constructed based on the prior parameter space perform poorly. It is thus impractical to replace this hydrological model by a ROM directly in a MCMC method. However, the IS method can work with a ROM constructed for parameters in the close vicinity of the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimate. We will discuss the accuracy and computational efficiency of using ROMs in the implicit sampling procedure

  3. Estimation of Water Quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetrinskaya, N.I.; Manasbayeva, A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Water has a particular ecological function and it is an indicator of the general state of the biosphere. In relation with this summary, the toxicological evaluation of water by biologic testing methods is very actual. The peculiarity of biologic testing information is an integral reflection of all totality properties of examination of the environment in position of its perception by living objects. Rapid integral evaluation of anthropological situation is a base aim of biologic testing. If this evaluation has deviations from normal state, detailed analysis and revelation of dangerous components could be conducted later. The quality of water from the Degelen gallery, where nuclear explosions were conducted, was investigated by bio-testing methods. The micro-organisms (Micrococcus Luteus, Candida crusei, Pseudomonas algaligenes) and water plant elodea (Elodea canadensis Rich) were used as test-objects. It is known that the transporting functions of cell membranes of living organisms are violated the first time in extreme conditions by difference influences. Therefore, ion penetration of elodeas and micro-organisms cells, which contained in the examination water with toxicants, were used as test-function. Alteration of membrane penetration was estimated by measurement of electrolytes electrical conductivity, which gets out from living objects cells to distillate water. Index of water toxic is ratio of electrical conductivity in experience to electrical conductivity in control. Also, observations from common state of plant, which was incubated in toxic water, were made. (Chronic experience conducted for 60 days.) The plants were incubated in water samples, which were picked out from gallery in the years 1996 and 1997. The time of incubation is 1-10 days. The results of investigation showed that ion penetration of elodeas and micro-organisms cells changed very much with influence of radionuclides, which were contained in testing water. Changes are taking place even in

  4. WAYS HIERARCHY OF ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ŞERBAN CLAUDIU VALENTIN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on one hand on the premise that the estimate is an approximate evaluation, completed with the fact that the term estimate is increasingly common and used by a variety of both theoretical and practical areas, particularly in situations where we can not decide ourselves with certainty, it must be said that, in fact, we are dealing with estimates and in our case with an accounting estimate. Completing on the other hand the idea above with the phrase "estimated value", which implies that we are dealing with a value obtained from an evaluation process, but its size is not exact but approximated, meaning is close to the actual size, it becomes obvious the neccessity to delimit the hierarchical relationship between evaluation / estimate while considering the context in which the evaluation activity is derulated at entity level.

  5. Spring Small Grains Area Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, W. F.; Mohler, R. J.

    1986-01-01

    SSG3 automatically estimates acreage of spring small grains from Landsat data. Report describes development and testing of a computerized technique for using Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to estimate acreage of spring small grains (wheat, barley, and oats). Application of technique to analysis of four years of data from United States and Canada yielded estimates of accuracy comparable to those obtained through procedures that rely on trained analysis.

  6. Parameter estimation in plasmonic QED

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahromi, H. Rangani

    2018-03-01

    We address the problem of parameter estimation in the presence of plasmonic modes manipulating emitted light via the localized surface plasmons in a plasmonic waveguide at the nanoscale. The emitter that we discuss is the nitrogen vacancy centre (NVC) in diamond modelled as a qubit. Our goal is to estimate the β factor measuring the fraction of emitted energy captured by waveguide surface plasmons. The best strategy to obtain the most accurate estimation of the parameter, in terms of the initial state of the probes and different control parameters, is investigated. In particular, for two-qubit estimation, it is found although we may achieve the best estimation at initial instants by using the maximally entangled initial states, at long times, the optimal estimation occurs when the initial state of the probes is a product one. We also find that decreasing the interqubit distance or increasing the propagation length of the plasmons improve the precision of the estimation. Moreover, decrease of spontaneous emission rate of the NVCs retards the quantum Fisher information (QFI) reduction and therefore the vanishing of the QFI, measuring the precision of the estimation, is delayed. In addition, if the phase parameter of the initial state of the two NVCs is equal to πrad, the best estimation with the two-qubit system is achieved when initially the NVCs are maximally entangled. Besides, the one-qubit estimation has been also analysed in detail. Especially, we show that, using a two-qubit probe, at any arbitrary time, enhances considerably the precision of estimation in comparison with one-qubit estimation.

  7. Iterative image reconstruction for positron emission tomography based on a detector response function estimated from point source measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tohme, Michel S; Qi Jinyi

    2009-01-01

    The accuracy of the system model in an iterative reconstruction algorithm greatly affects the quality of reconstructed positron emission tomography (PET) images. For efficient computation in reconstruction, the system model in PET can be factored into a product of a geometric projection matrix and sinogram blurring matrix, where the former is often computed based on analytical calculation, and the latter is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. Direct measurement of a sinogram blurring matrix is difficult in practice because of the requirement of a collimated source. In this work, we propose a method to estimate the 2D blurring kernels from uncollimated point source measurements. Since the resulting sinogram blurring matrix stems from actual measurements, it can take into account the physical effects in the photon detection process that are difficult or impossible to model in a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and hence provide a more accurate system model. Another advantage of the proposed method over MC simulation is that it can easily be applied to data that have undergone a transformation to reduce the data size (e.g., Fourier rebinning). Point source measurements were acquired with high count statistics in a relatively fine grid inside the microPET II scanner using a high-precision 2D motion stage. A monotonically convergent iterative algorithm has been derived to estimate the detector blurring matrix from the point source measurements. The algorithm takes advantage of the rotational symmetry of the PET scanner and explicitly models the detector block structure. The resulting sinogram blurring matrix is incorporated into a maximum a posteriori (MAP) image reconstruction algorithm. The proposed method has been validated using a 3 x 3 line phantom, an ultra-micro resolution phantom and a 22 Na point source superimposed on a warm background. The results of the proposed method show improvements in both resolution and contrast ratio when compared with the MAP

  8. Quantity Estimation Of The Interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorana, Agim; Malkaj, Partizan; Muda, Valbona

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present some considerations about quantity estimations, regarding the range of interaction and the conservations laws in various types of interactions. Our estimations are done under classical and quantum point of view and have to do with the interaction's carriers, the radius, the influence range and the intensity of interactions

  9. CONDITIONS FOR EXACT CAVALIERI ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Tinajero-Bravo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Exact Cavalieri estimation amounts to zero variance estimation of an integral with systematic observations along a sampling axis. A sufficient condition is given, both in the continuous and the discrete cases, for exact Cavalieri sampling. The conclusions suggest improvements on the current stereological application of fractionator-type sampling.

  10. Optimization of Barron density estimates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vajda, Igor; van der Meulen, E. C.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 5 (2001), s. 1867-1883 ISSN 0018-9448 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1137 Grant - others:Copernicus(XE) 579 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Barron estimator * chi-square criterion * density estimation Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.077, year: 2001

  11. Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    AFRL-RW-EG-TR-2015-108 Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos Douglas V. Nance Air Force Research...COVERED (From - To) 20-04-2015 – 07-08-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos ...This expository report discusses fundamental aspects of the polynomial chaos method for representing the properties of second order stochastic

  12. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  13. Reactivity estimation using digital nonlinear H∞ estimator for VHTRC experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo; Nabeshima, Kunihiko; Yamane, Tsuyoshi

    2003-01-01

    On-line and real-time estimation of time-varying reactivity in a nuclear reactor in necessary for early detection of reactivity anomaly and safe operation. Using a digital nonlinear H ∞ estimator, an experiment of real-time dynamic reactivity estimation was carried out in the Very High Temperature Reactor Critical Assembly (VHTRC) of Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. Some technical issues of the experiment are described, such as reactivity insertion, data sampling frequency, anti-aliasing filter, experimental circuit and digitalising nonlinear H ∞ reactivity estimator, and so on. Then, we discussed the experimental results obtained by the digital nonlinear H ∞ estimator with sampled data of the nuclear instrumentation signal for the power responses under various reactivity insertions. Good performances of estimated reactivity were observed, with almost no delay to the true reactivity and sufficient accuracy between 0.05 cent and 0.1 cent. The experiment shows that real-time reactivity for data sampling period of 10 ms can be certainly realized. From the results of the experiment, it is concluded that the digital nonlinear H ∞ reactivity estimator can be applied as on-line real-time reactivity meter for actual nuclear plants. (author)

  14. Resonance – Journal of Science Education | Indian Academy of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Statistical inference; inductive inference; probability model; likelihood function; prior probability; posterior probability; estimation; estimation error; maximum likelihood estimate; maximum a posteriori estimate; penalized likelihood; statistical computing; Bayes theorem; confidence interval.

  15. Age estimation in the living

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels

    2015-01-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores...... are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA...... in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation...

  16. UNBIASED ESTIMATORS OF SPECIFIC CONNECTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Paul Jernot

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the estimation of the specific connectivity of a stationary random set in IRd. It turns out that the "natural" estimator is only asymptotically unbiased. The example of a boolean model of hypercubes illustrates the amplitude of the bias produced when the measurement field is relatively small with respect to the range of the random set. For that reason unbiased estimators are desired. Such an estimator can be found in the literature in the case where the measurement field is a right parallelotope. In this paper, this estimator is extended to apply to measurement fields of various shapes, and to possess a smaller variance. Finally an example from quantitative metallography (specific connectivity of a population of sintered bronze particles is given.

  17. Laser cost experience and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

  18. Estimation of toxicity using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (TEST)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tens of thousands of chemicals are currently in commerce, and hundreds more are introduced every year. Since experimental measurements of toxicity are extremely time consuming and expensive, it is imperative that alternative methods to estimate toxicity are developed.

  19. Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2013-06-01

    Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the "large p small n " setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required.

  20. Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the “large p small n” setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required. PMID:23730197

  1. Radiation dose estimates for radiopharmaceuticals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stabin, M.G.; Stubbs, J.B.; Toohey, R.E.

    1996-04-01

    Tables of radiation dose estimates based on the Cristy-Eckerman adult male phantom are provided for a number of radiopharmaceuticals commonly used in nuclear medicine. Radiation dose estimates are listed for all major source organs, and several other organs of interest. The dose estimates were calculated using the MIRD Technique as implemented in the MIRDOSE3 computer code, developed by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Radiation Internal Dose Information Center. In this code, residence times for source organs are used with decay data from the MIRD Radionuclide Data and Decay Schemes to produce estimates of radiation dose to organs of standardized phantoms representing individuals of different ages. The adult male phantom of the Cristy-Eckerman phantom series is different from the MIRD 5, or Reference Man phantom in several aspects, the most important of which is the difference in the masses and absorbed fractions for the active (red) marrow. The absorbed fractions for flow energy photons striking the marrow are also different. Other minor differences exist, but are not likely to significantly affect dose estimates calculated with the two phantoms. Assumptions which support each of the dose estimates appears at the bottom of the table of estimates for a given radiopharmaceutical. In most cases, the model kinetics or organ residence times are explicitly given. The results presented here can easily be extended to include other radiopharmaceuticals or phantoms

  2. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  3. Boundary methods for mode estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, William E., Jr.; Ulug, Batuhan; Ahalt, Stanley C.

    1999-08-01

    This paper investigates the use of Boundary Methods (BMs), a collection of tools used for distribution analysis, as a method for estimating the number of modes associated with a given data set. Model order information of this type is required by several pattern recognition applications. The BM technique provides a novel approach to this parameter estimation problem and is comparable in terms of both accuracy and computations to other popular mode estimation techniques currently found in the literature and automatic target recognition applications. This paper explains the methodology used in the BM approach to mode estimation. Also, this paper quickly reviews other common mode estimation techniques and describes the empirical investigation used to explore the relationship of the BM technique to other mode estimation techniques. Specifically, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the BM technique are compared quantitatively to the a mixture of Gaussian (MOG) approach and a k-means approach to model order estimation. The stopping criteria of the MOG and k-means techniques is the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC).

  4. Generalized Centroid Estimators in Bioinformatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Michiaki; Kiryu, Hisanori; Iwasaki, Wataru; Asai, Kiyoshi

    2011-01-01

    In a number of estimation problems in bioinformatics, accuracy measures of the target problem are usually given, and it is important to design estimators that are suitable to those accuracy measures. However, there is often a discrepancy between an employed estimator and a given accuracy measure of the problem. In this study, we introduce a general class of efficient estimators for estimation problems on high-dimensional binary spaces, which represent many fundamental problems in bioinformatics. Theoretical analysis reveals that the proposed estimators generally fit with commonly-used accuracy measures (e.g. sensitivity, PPV, MCC and F-score) as well as it can be computed efficiently in many cases, and cover a wide range of problems in bioinformatics from the viewpoint of the principle of maximum expected accuracy (MEA). It is also shown that some important algorithms in bioinformatics can be interpreted in a unified manner. Not only the concept presented in this paper gives a useful framework to design MEA-based estimators but also it is highly extendable and sheds new light on many problems in bioinformatics. PMID:21365017

  5. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  6. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  7. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  8. Analytical estimates of structural behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Dym, Clive L

    2012-01-01

    Explicitly reintroducing the idea of modeling to the analysis of structures, Analytical Estimates of Structural Behavior presents an integrated approach to modeling and estimating the behavior of structures. With the increasing reliance on computer-based approaches in structural analysis, it is becoming even more important for structural engineers to recognize that they are dealing with models of structures, not with the actual structures. As tempting as it is to run innumerable simulations, closed-form estimates can be effectively used to guide and check numerical results, and to confirm phys

  9. Phase estimation in optical interferometry

    CERN Document Server

    Rastogi, Pramod

    2014-01-01

    Phase Estimation in Optical Interferometry covers the essentials of phase-stepping algorithms used in interferometry and pseudointerferometric techniques. It presents the basic concepts and mathematics needed for understanding the phase estimation methods in use today. The first four chapters focus on phase retrieval from image transforms using a single frame. The next several chapters examine the local environment of a fringe pattern, give a broad picture of the phase estimation approach based on local polynomial phase modeling, cover temporal high-resolution phase evaluation methods, and pre

  10. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jayachandran, Toke

    1999-01-01

    Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

  11. Spectral unmixing: estimating partial abundances

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Debba, Pravesh

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available techniques is complicated when considering very similar spectral signatures. Iron-bearing oxide/hydroxide/sulfate minerals have similar spectral signatures. The study focuses on how could estimates of abundances of spectrally similar iron-bearing oxide...

  12. 50th Percentile Rent Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — Rent estimates at the 50th percentile (or median) are calculated for all Fair Market Rent areas. Fair Market Rents (FMRs) are primarily used to determine payment...

  13. LPS Catch and Effort Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data collected from the LPS dockside (LPIS) and the LPS telephone (LPTS) surveys are combined to produce estimates of total recreational catch, landings, and fishing...

  14. Exploratory shaft liner corrosion estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, D.R.

    1985-10-01

    An estimate of expected corrosion degradation during the 100-year design life of the Exploratory Shaft (ES) is presented. The basis for the estimate is a brief literature survey of corrosion data, in addition to data taken by the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. The scope of the study is expected corrosion environment of the ES, the corrosion modes of general corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion, dissimilar metal corrosion, and environmentally assisted cracking. The expected internal and external environment of the shaft liner is described in detail and estimated effects of each corrosion mode are given. The maximum amount of general corrosion degradation was estimated to be 70 mils at the exterior and 48 mils at the interior, at the shaft bottom. Corrosion at welds or mechanical joints could be significant, dependent on design. After a final determination of corrosion allowance has been established by the project it will be added to the design criteria. 10 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Project Cost Estimation for Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

  16. Robust estimation and hypothesis testing

    CERN Document Server

    Tiku, Moti L

    2004-01-01

    In statistical theory and practice, a certain distribution is usually assumed and then optimal solutions sought. Since deviations from an assumed distribution are very common, one cannot feel comfortable with assuming a particular distribution and believing it to be exactly correct. That brings the robustness issue in focus. In this book, we have given statistical procedures which are robust to plausible deviations from an assumed mode. The method of modified maximum likelihood estimation is used in formulating these procedures. The modified maximum likelihood estimators are explicit functions of sample observations and are easy to compute. They are asymptotically fully efficient and are as efficient as the maximum likelihood estimators for small sample sizes. The maximum likelihood estimators have computational problems and are, therefore, elusive. A broad range of topics are covered in this book. Solutions are given which are easy to implement and are efficient. The solutions are also robust to data anomali...

  17. Estimating Emissions from Railway Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Morten W.; Sorenson, Spencer C.

    1998-01-01

    Several parameters of importance for estimating emissions from railway traffic are discussed, and typical results presented. Typical emissions factors from diesel engines and electrical power generation are presented, and the effect of differences in national electrical generation sources...

  18. Travel time estimation using Bluetooth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of using a Bluetooth Probe Detection System (BPDS) to : estimate travel time in an urban area. Specifically, the study investigated the possibility of measuring overall congestion, the : ...

  19. Estimating uncertainty in resolution tests

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goncalves, DP

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available frequencies yields a biased estimate, and we provide an improved estimator. An application illustrates how the results derived can be incorporated into a larger un- certainty analysis. ? 2006 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. H20851DOI: 10....1117/1.2202914H20852 Subject terms: resolution testing; USAF 1951 test target; resolution uncertainity. Paper 050404R received May 20, 2005; revised manuscript received Sep. 2, 2005; accepted for publication Sep. 9, 2005; published online May 10, 2006. 1...

  20. Estimating solar radiation in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anane-Fenin, K.

    1986-04-01

    The estimates of global radiation on a horizontal surface for 9 towns in Ghana, West Africa, are deduced from their sunshine data using two methods developed by Angstrom and Sabbagh. An appropriate regional parameter is determined with the first method and used to predict solar irradiation in all the 9 stations with an accuracy better than 15%. Estimation of diffuse solar irradiation by Page, Lin and Jordan and three other authors' correlation are performed and the results examined. (author)

  1. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  2. Estimating emissions from railway traffic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joergensen, M.W.; Sorenson, C.

    1997-07-01

    The report discusses methods that can be used to estimate the emissions from various kinds of railway traffic. The methods are based on the estimation of the energy consumption of the train, so that comparisons can be made between electric and diesel driven trains. Typical values are given for the necessary traffic parameters, emission factors, and train loading. Detailed models for train energy consumption are presented, as well as empirically based methods using average train speed and distance between stop. (au)

  3. Efficient, Differentially Private Point Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Differential privacy is a recent notion of privacy for statistical databases that provides rigorous, meaningful confidentiality guarantees, even in the presence of an attacker with access to arbitrary side information. We show that for a large class of parametric probability models, one can construct a differentially private estimator whose distribution converges to that of the maximum likelihood estimator. In particular, it is efficient and asymptotically unbiased. This result provides (furt...

  4. Computer-Aided Parts Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, Adam; Smart, Robert

    1993-01-01

    In 1991, Ford Motor Company began deployment of CAPE (computer-aided parts estimating system), a highly advanced knowledge-based system designed to generate, evaluate, and cost automotive part manufacturing plans. cape is engineered on an innovative, extensible, declarative process-planning and estimating knowledge representation language, which underpins the cape kernel architecture. Many manufacturing processes have been modeled to date, but eventually every significant process in motor veh...

  5. Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

  6. Improving HelioClim-3 estimates of surface solar irradiance using the McClear clear-sky model and recent advances in atmosphere composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Qu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3 provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min, estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of the atmospheric Linke turbidity factor. This technical note proposes a method to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of the irradiation under clear skies from the new McClear clear-sky model, whose inputs are the advanced global aerosol property forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate projects. The method is validated by comparison with a series of ground measurements for 15 min and 1 h for 6 stations and for daily irradiation for 23 stations. The correlation coefficient is large, greater than respectively 0.92, 0.94, and 0.97, for 15 min, 1 h and daily irradiation. The bias ranges from −4 to 4% of the mean observed irradiation for most sites. The relative root mean square difference (RMSD varies between 14 and 38% for 15 min, 12 and 33% for 1 h irradiation, and 6 and 20% for daily irradiation. As a rule of thumb, the farther from the nadir of the Meteosat satellite located at latitude 0° and longitude 0°, and the greater the occurrence of fragmented cloud cover, the greater the relative RMSD. The method improves HC3v3 in most cases, and with no degradation in the others. A systematic correction of HC3v3 with McClear is recommended.

  7. Comparison of density estimators. [Estimation of probability density functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.; Monahan, J.F.

    1977-09-01

    Recent work in the field of probability density estimation has included the introduction of some new methods, such as the polynomial and spline methods and the nearest neighbor method, and the study of asymptotic properties in depth. This earlier work is summarized here. In addition, the computational complexity of the various algorithms is analyzed, as are some simulations. The object is to compare the performance of the various methods in small samples and their sensitivity to change in their parameters, and to attempt to discover at what point a sample is so small that density estimation can no longer be worthwhile. (RWR)

  8. Weldon Spring historical dose estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meshkov, N.; Benioff, P.; Wang, J.; Yuan, Y.

    1986-07-01

    This study was conducted to determine the estimated radiation doses that individuals in five nearby population groups and the general population in the surrounding area may have received as a consequence of activities at a uranium processing plant in Weldon Spring, Missouri. The study is retrospective and encompasses plant operations (1957-1966), cleanup (1967-1969), and maintenance (1969-1982). The dose estimates for members of the nearby population groups are as follows. Of the three periods considered, the largest doses to the general population in the surrounding area would have occurred during the plant operations period (1957-1966). Dose estimates for the cleanup (1967-1969) and maintenance (1969-1982) periods are negligible in comparison. Based on the monitoring data, if there was a person residing continually in a dwelling 1.2 km (0.75 mi) north of the plant, this person is estimated to have received an average of about 96 mrem/yr (ranging from 50 to 160 mrem/yr) above background during plant operations, whereas the dose to a nearby resident during later years is estimated to have been about 0.4 mrem/yr during cleanup and about 0.2 mrem/yr during the maintenance period. These values may be compared with the background dose in Missouri of 120 mrem/yr

  9. Weldon Spring historical dose estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meshkov, N.; Benioff, P.; Wang, J.; Yuan, Y.

    1986-07-01

    This study was conducted to determine the estimated radiation doses that individuals in five nearby population groups and the general population in the surrounding area may have received as a consequence of activities at a uranium processing plant in Weldon Spring, Missouri. The study is retrospective and encompasses plant operations (1957-1966), cleanup (1967-1969), and maintenance (1969-1982). The dose estimates for members of the nearby population groups are as follows. Of the three periods considered, the largest doses to the general population in the surrounding area would have occurred during the plant operations period (1957-1966). Dose estimates for the cleanup (1967-1969) and maintenance (1969-1982) periods are negligible in comparison. Based on the monitoring data, if there was a person residing continually in a dwelling 1.2 km (0.75 mi) north of the plant, this person is estimated to have received an average of about 96 mrem/yr (ranging from 50 to 160 mrem/yr) above background during plant operations, whereas the dose to a nearby resident during later years is estimated to have been about 0.4 mrem/yr during cleanup and about 0.2 mrem/yr during the maintenance period. These values may be compared with the background dose in Missouri of 120 mrem/yr.

  10. An improved estimation and focusing scheme for vector velocity estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Munk, Peter

    1999-01-01

    to reduce spatial velocity dispersion. Examples of different velocity vector conditions are shown using the Field II simulation program. A relative accuracy of 10.1 % is obtained for the lateral velocity estimates for a parabolic velocity profile for a flow perpendicular to the ultrasound beam and a signal...

  11. Robust Pitch Estimation Using an Optimal Filter on Frequency Estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karimian-Azari, Sam; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2014-01-01

    of such signals from unconstrained frequency estimates (UFEs). A minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) method is proposed as an optimal solution to minimize the variance of UFEs considering the constraint of integer harmonics. The MVDR filter is designed based on noise statistics making it robust...

  12. estimating formwork striking time for concrete mixes estimating

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    In this study, we estimated the time for strength development in concrete cured up to 56 days. Water. In this .... regression analysis using MS Excel 2016 Software performed on the ..... [1] Abolfazl, K. R, Peroti S. and Rahemi L 'The Effect of.

  13. Moving Horizon Estimation and Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    successful and applied methodology beyond PID-control for control of industrial processes. The main contribution of this thesis is introduction and definition of the extended linear quadratic optimal control problem for solution of numerical problems arising in moving horizon estimation and control...... problems. Chapter 1 motivates moving horizon estimation and control as a paradigm for control of industrial processes. It introduces the extended linear quadratic control problem and discusses its central role in moving horizon estimation and control. Introduction, application and efficient solution....... It provides an algorithm for computation of the maximal output admissible set for linear model predictive control. Appendix D provides results concerning linear regression. Appendix E discuss prediction error methods for identification of linear models tailored for model predictive control....

  14. Heuristic introduction to estimation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feeley, J.J.; Griffith, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    The methods and concepts of optimal estimation and control have been very successfully applied in the aerospace industry during the past 20 years. Although similarities exist between the problems (control, modeling, measurements) in the aerospace and nuclear power industries, the methods and concepts have found only scant acceptance in the nuclear industry. Differences in technical language seem to be a major reason for the slow transfer of estimation and control methods to the nuclear industry. Therefore, this report was written to present certain important and useful concepts with a minimum of specialized language. By employing a simple example throughout the report, the importance of several information and uncertainty sources is stressed and optimal ways of using or allowing for these sources are presented. This report discusses optimal estimation problems. A future report will discuss optimal control problems

  15. Estimation of effective wind speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Østergaard, K. Z.; Brath, P.; Stoustrup, J.

    2007-07-01

    The wind speed has a huge impact on the dynamic response of wind turbine. Because of this, many control algorithms use a measure of the wind speed to increase performance, e.g. by gain scheduling and feed forward. Unfortunately, no accurate measurement of the effective wind speed is online available from direct measurements, which means that it must be estimated in order to make such control methods applicable in practice. In this paper a new method is presented for the estimation of the effective wind speed. First, the rotor speed and aerodynamic torque are estimated by a combined state and input observer. These two variables combined with the measured pitch angle is then used to calculate the effective wind speed by an inversion of a static aerodynamic model.

  16. Estimation and valuation in accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cicilia Ionescu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The relationships of the enterprise with the external environment give rise to a range of informational needs. Satisfying those needs requires the production of coherent, comparable, relevant and reliable information included into the individual or consolidated financial statements. International Financial Reporting Standards IAS / IFRS aim to ensure the comparability and relevance of the accounting information, providing, among other things, details about the issue of accounting estimates and changes in accounting estimates. Valuation is a process continually used, in order to assign values to the elements that are to be recognised in the financial statements. Most of the times, the values reflected in the books are clear, they are recorded in the contracts with third parties, in the supporting documents, etc. However, the uncertainties in which a reporting entity operates determines that, sometimes, the assigned or values attributable to some items composing the financial statements be determined by use estimates.

  17. Integral Criticality Estimators in MCATK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nolen, Steven Douglas [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Adams, Terry R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sweezy, Jeremy Ed [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-06-14

    The Monte Carlo Application ToolKit (MCATK) is a component-based software toolset for delivering customized particle transport solutions using the Monte Carlo method. Currently under development in the XCP Monte Carlo group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, the toolkit has the ability to estimate the ke f f and a eigenvalues for static geometries. This paper presents a description of the estimators and variance reduction techniques available in the toolkit and includes a preview of those slated for future releases. Along with the description of the underlying algorithms is a description of the available user inputs for controlling the iterations. The paper concludes with a comparison of the MCATK results with those provided by analytic solutions. The results match within expected statistical uncertainties and demonstrate MCATK’s usefulness in estimating these important quantities.

  18. Order statistics & inference estimation methods

    CERN Document Server

    Balakrishnan, N

    1991-01-01

    The literature on order statistics and inferenc eis quite extensive and covers a large number of fields ,but most of it is dispersed throughout numerous publications. This volume is the consolidtion of the most important results and places an emphasis on estimation. Both theoretical and computational procedures are presented to meet the needs of researchers, professionals, and students. The methods of estimation discussed are well-illustrated with numerous practical examples from both the physical and life sciences, including sociology,psychology,a nd electrical and chemical engineering. A co

  19. Methods for estimating the semivariogram

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lophaven, Søren Nymand; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Rootzen, Helle

    2002-01-01

    . In the existing literature various methods for modelling the semivariogram have been proposed, while only a few studies have been made on comparing different approaches. In this paper we compare eight approaches for modelling the semivariogram, i.e. six approaches based on least squares estimation...... maximum likelihood performed better than the least squares approaches. We also applied maximum likelihood and least squares estimation to a real dataset, containing measurements of salinity at 71 sampling stations in the Kattegat basin. This showed that the calculation of spatial predictions...

  20. Albedo estimation for scene segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, C H; Rosenfeld, A

    1983-03-01

    Standard methods of image segmentation do not take into account the three-dimensional nature of the underlying scene. For example, histogram-based segmentation tacitly assumes that the image intensity is piecewise constant, and this is not true when the scene contains curved surfaces. This paper introduces a method of taking 3d information into account in the segmentation process. The image intensities are adjusted to compensate for the effects of estimated surface orientation; the adjusted intensities can be regarded as reflectivity estimates. When histogram-based segmentation is applied to these new values, the image is segmented into parts corresponding to surfaces of constant reflectivity in the scene. 7 references.

  1. Estimation of strong ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watabe, Makoto

    1993-01-01

    Fault model has been developed to estimate a strong ground motion in consideration of characteristics of seismic source and propagation path of seismic waves. There are two different approaches in the model. The first one is a theoretical approach, while the second approach is a semi-empirical approach. Though the latter is more practical than the former to be applied to the estimation of input motions, it needs at least the small-event records, the value of the seismic moment of the small event and the fault model of the large event

  2. Multicollinearity and maximum entropy leuven estimator

    OpenAIRE

    Sudhanshu Mishra

    2004-01-01

    Multicollinearity is a serious problem in applied regression analysis. Q. Paris (2001) introduced the MEL estimator to resolve the multicollinearity problem. This paper improves the MEL estimator to the Modular MEL (MMEL) estimator and shows by Monte Carlo experiments that MMEL estimator performs significantly better than OLS as well as MEL estimators.

  3. Unrecorded Alcohol Consumption: Quantitative Methods of Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Razvodovsky, Y. E.

    2010-01-01

    unrecorded alcohol; methods of estimation In this paper we focused on methods of estimation of unrecorded alcohol consumption level. Present methods of estimation of unrevorded alcohol consumption allow only approximate estimation of unrecorded alcohol consumption level. Tacking into consideration the extreme importance of such kind of data, further investigation is necessary to improve the reliability of methods estimation of unrecorded alcohol consumption.

  4. Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, R.B.

    1986-01-01

    This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

  5. Helicopter Toy and Lift Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakerin, Said

    2013-01-01

    A $1 plastic helicopter toy (called a Wacky Whirler) can be used to demonstrate lift. Students can make basic measurements of the toy, use reasonable assumptions and, with the lift formula, estimate the lift, and verify that it is sufficient to overcome the toy's weight. (Contains 1 figure.)

  6. Estimation of potential uranium resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curry, D.L.

    1977-09-01

    Potential estimates, like reserves, are limited by the information on hand at the time and are not intended to indicate the ultimate resources. Potential estimates are based on geologic judgement, so their reliability is dependent on the quality and extent of geologic knowledge. Reliability differs for each of the three potential resource classes. It is greatest for probable potential resources because of the greater knowledge base resulting from the advanced stage of exploration and development in established producing districts where most of the resources in this class are located. Reliability is least for speculative potential resources because no significant deposits are known, and favorability is inferred from limited geologic data. Estimates of potential resources are revised as new geologic concepts are postulated, as new types of uranium ore bodies are discovered, and as improved geophysical and geochemical techniques are developed and applied. Advances in technology that permit the exploitation of deep or low-grade deposits, or the processing of ores of previously uneconomic metallurgical types, also will affect the estimates

  7. An Improved Cluster Richness Estimator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rozo, Eduardo; /Ohio State U.; Rykoff, Eli S.; /UC, Santa Barbara; Koester, Benjamin P.; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; McKay, Timothy; /Michigan U.; Hao, Jiangang; /Michigan U.; Evrard, August; /Michigan U.; Wechsler, Risa H.; /SLAC; Hansen, Sarah; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; Sheldon, Erin; /New York U.; Johnston, David; /Houston U.; Becker, Matthew R.; /Chicago U. /KICP, Chicago; Annis, James T.; /Fermilab; Bleem, Lindsey; /Chicago U.; Scranton, Ryan; /Pittsburgh U.

    2009-08-03

    Minimizing the scatter between cluster mass and accessible observables is an important goal for cluster cosmology. In this work, we introduce a new matched filter richness estimator, and test its performance using the maxBCG cluster catalog. Our new estimator significantly reduces the variance in the L{sub X}-richness relation, from {sigma}{sub lnL{sub X}}{sup 2} = (0.86 {+-} 0.02){sup 2} to {sigma}{sub lnL{sub X}}{sup 2} = (0.69 {+-} 0.02){sup 2}. Relative to the maxBCG richness estimate, it also removes the strong redshift dependence of the richness scaling relations, and is significantly more robust to photometric and redshift errors. These improvements are largely due to our more sophisticated treatment of galaxy color data. We also demonstrate the scatter in the L{sub X}-richness relation depends on the aperture used to estimate cluster richness, and introduce a novel approach for optimizing said aperture which can be easily generalized to other mass tracers.

  8. Estimation of Bridge Reliability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In this paper it is shown how the so-called reliability distributions can be estimated using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The main purpose is to demonstrate the methodology. Therefor very exact data concerning reliability and deterioration are not needed. However, it is intended in the paper to ...

  9. Multispacecraft current estimates at swarm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dunlop, M. W.; Yang, Y.-Y.; Yang, J.-Y.

    2015-01-01

    During the first several months of the three-spacecraft Swarm mission all three spacecraft camerepeatedly into close alignment, providing an ideal opportunity for validating the proposed dual-spacecraftmethod for estimating current density from the Swarm magnetic field data. Two of the Swarm...

  10. Estimating Swedish biomass energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, J.; Lundqvist, U.

    1999-01-01

    Biomass is suggested to supply an increasing amount of energy in Sweden. There have been several studies estimating the potential supply of biomass energy, including that of the Swedish Energy Commission in 1995. The Energy Commission based its estimates of biomass supply on five other analyses which presented a wide variation in estimated future supply, in large part due to differing assumptions regarding important factors. In this paper, these studies are assessed, and the estimated potential biomass energy supplies are discusses regarding prices, technical progress and energy policy. The supply of logging residues depends on the demand for wood products and is limited by ecological, technological, and economic restrictions. The supply of stemwood from early thinning for energy and of straw from cereal and oil seed production is mainly dependent upon economic considerations. One major factor for the supply of willow and reed canary grass is the size of arable land projected to be not needed for food and fodder production. Future supply of biomass energy depends on energy prices and technical progress, both of which are driven by energy policy priorities. Biomass energy has to compete with other energy sources as well as with alternative uses of biomass such as forest products and food production. Technical progress may decrease the costs of biomass energy and thus increase the competitiveness. Economic instruments, including carbon taxes and subsidies, and allocation of research and development resources, are driven by energy policy goals and can change the competitiveness of biomass energy

  11. Estimates of wildland fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; John J. Qu; Wanting Wang; Xianjun Hao

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire missions can significantly affect regional and global air quality, radiation, climate, and the carbon cycle. A fundamental and yet challenging prerequisite to understanding the environmental effects is to accurately estimate fire emissions. This chapter describes and analyzes fire emission calculations. Various techniques (field measurements, empirical...

  12. State Estimation for Tensegrity Robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caluwaerts, Ken; Bruce, Jonathan; Friesen, Jeffrey M.; Sunspiral, Vytas

    2016-01-01

    Tensegrity robots are a class of compliant robots that have many desirable traits when designing mass efficient systems that must interact with uncertain environments. Various promising control approaches have been proposed for tensegrity systems in simulation. Unfortunately, state estimation methods for tensegrity robots have not yet been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we present the design and evaluation of a state estimator for tensegrity robots. This state estimator will enable existing and future control algorithms to transfer from simulation to hardware. Our approach is based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and combines inertial measurements, ultra wideband time-of-flight ranging measurements, and actuator state information. We evaluate the effectiveness of our method on the SUPERball, a tensegrity based planetary exploration robotic prototype. In particular, we conduct tests for evaluating both the robot's success in estimating global position in relation to fixed ranging base stations during rolling maneuvers as well as local behavior due to small-amplitude deformations induced by cable actuation.

  13. Fuel Estimation Using Dynamic Response

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hines, Michael S

    2007-01-01

    ...?s simulated satellite (SimSAT) to known control inputs. With an iterative process, the moment of inertia of SimSAT about the yaw axis was estimated by matching a model of SimSAT to the measured angular rates...

  14. Empirical estimates of the NAIRU

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Jakob Brøchner

    2005-01-01

    equations. In this paper it is shown that a high proportion of the constant term is a statistical artefact and suggests a new method which yields approximately unbiased estimates of the time-invariant NAIRU. Using data for OECD countries it is shown that the constant-term correction lowers the unadjusted...

  15. Online Wavelet Complementary velocity Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righettini, Paolo; Strada, Roberto; KhademOlama, Ehsan; Valilou, Shirin

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we have proposed a new online Wavelet Complementary velocity Estimator (WCE) over position and acceleration data gathered from an electro hydraulic servo shaking table. This is a batch estimator type that is based on the wavelet filter banks which extract the high and low resolution of data. The proposed complementary estimator combines these two resolutions of velocities which acquired from numerical differentiation and integration of the position and acceleration sensors by considering a fixed moving horizon window as input to wavelet filter. Because of using wavelet filters, it can be implemented in a parallel procedure. By this method the numerical velocity is estimated without having high noise of differentiators, integration drifting bias and with less delay which is suitable for active vibration control in high precision Mechatronics systems by Direct Velocity Feedback (DVF) methods. This method allows us to make velocity sensors with less mechanically moving parts which makes it suitable for fast miniature structures. We have compared this method with Kalman and Butterworth filters over stability, delay and benchmarked them by their long time velocity integration for getting back the initial position data. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Load Estimation from Modal Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aenlle, Manuel López; Brincker, Rune; Fernández, Pelayo Fernández

    2007-01-01

    In Natural Input Modal Analysis the modal parameters are estimated just from the responses while the loading is not recorded. However, engineers are sometimes interested in knowing some features of the loading acting on a structure. In this paper, a procedure to determine the loading from a FRF m...

  17. Gini estimation under infinite variance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Fontanari (Andrea); N.N. Taleb (Nassim Nicholas); P. Cirillo (Pasquale)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractWe study the problems related to the estimation of the Gini index in presence of a fat-tailed data generating process, i.e. one in the stable distribution class with finite mean but infinite variance (i.e. with tail index α∈(1,2)). We show that, in such a case, the Gini coefficient

  18. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  19. Correlation Dimension Estimation for Classification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiřina, Marcel; Jiřina jr., M.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 3 (2006), s. 547-557 ISSN 1895-8648 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : correlation dimension * probability density estimation * classification * UCI MLR Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  20. Molecular pathology and age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Christoph; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

    2010-12-15

    Over the course of our lifetime a stochastic process leads to gradual alterations of biomolecules on the molecular level, a process that is called ageing. Important changes are observed on the DNA-level as well as on the protein level and are the cause and/or consequence of our 'molecular clock', influenced by genetic as well as environmental parameters. These alterations on the molecular level may aid in forensic medicine to estimate the age of a living person, a dead body or even skeletal remains for identification purposes. Four such important alterations have become the focus of molecular age estimation in the forensic community over the last two decades. The age-dependent accumulation of the 4977bp deletion of mitochondrial DNA and the attrition of telomeres along with ageing are two important processes at the DNA-level. Among a variety of protein alterations, the racemisation of aspartic acid and advanced glycation endproducs have already been tested for forensic applications. At the moment the racemisation of aspartic acid represents the pinnacle of molecular age estimation for three reasons: an excellent standardization of sampling and methods, an evaluation of different variables in many published studies and highest accuracy of results. The three other mentioned alterations often lack standardized procedures, published data are sparse and often have the character of pilot studies. Nevertheless it is important to evaluate molecular methods for their suitability in forensic age estimation, because supplementary methods will help to extend and refine accuracy and reliability of such estimates. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Eliminating bias in rainfall estimates from microwave links due to antenna wetting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Martin; Rieckermann, Jörg; Bareš, Vojtěch

    2014-05-01

    Commercial microwave links (MWLs) are point-to-point radio systems which are widely used in telecommunication systems. They operate at frequencies where the transmitted power is mainly disturbed by precipitation. Thus, signal attenuation from MWLs can be used to estimate path-averaged rain rates, which is conceptually very promising, since MWLs cover about 20 % of surface area. Unfortunately, MWL rainfall estimates are often positively biased due to additional attenuation caused by antenna wetting. To correct MWL observations a posteriori to reduce the wet antenna effect (WAE), both empirically and physically based models have been suggested. However, it is challenging to calibrate these models, because the wet antenna attenuation depends both on the MWL properties (frequency, type of antennas, shielding etc.) and different climatic factors (temperature, due point, wind velocity and direction, etc.). Instead, it seems straight forward to keep antennas dry by shielding them. In this investigation we compare the effectiveness of antenna shielding to model-based corrections to reduce the WAE. The experimental setup, located in Dübendorf-Switzerland, consisted of 1.85-km long commercial dual-polarization microwave link at 38 GHz and 5 optical disdrometers. The MWL was operated without shielding in the period from March to October 2011 and with shielding from October 2011 to July 2012. This unique experimental design made it possible to identify the attenuation due to antenna wetting, which can be computed as the difference between the measured and theoretical attenuation. The theoretical path-averaged attenuation was calculated from the path-averaged drop size distribution. During the unshielded periods, the total bias caused by WAE was 0.74 dB, which was reduced by shielding to 0.39 dB for the horizontal polarization (vertical: reduction from 0.96 dB to 0.44 dB). Interestingly, the model-based correction (Schleiss et al. 2013) was more effective because it reduced

  2. Integrated fMRI Preprocessing Framework Using Extended Kalman Filter for Estimation of Slice-Wise Motion

    OpenAIRE

    Basile Pinsard; Basile Pinsard; Basile Pinsard; Arnaud Boutin; Arnaud Boutin; Julien Doyon; Julien Doyon; Habib Benali; Habib Benali; Habib Benali

    2018-01-01

    Functional MRI acquisition is sensitive to subjects' motion that cannot be fully constrained. Therefore, signal corrections have to be applied a posteriori in order to mitigate the complex interactions between changing tissue localization and magnetic fields, gradients and readouts. To circumvent current preprocessing strategies limitations, we developed an integrated method that correct motion and spatial low-frequency intensity fluctuations at the level of each slice in order to better fit ...

  3. 23 CFR 635.115 - Agreement estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE Contract Procedures § 635.115 Agreement estimate. (a) Following the award of contract, an agreement estimate based on the contract unit prices and estimated quantities shall be...

  4. On semiautomatic estimation of surface area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dvorak, J.; Jensen, Eva B. Vedel

    2013-01-01

    and the surfactor. For ellipsoidal particles, it is shown that the flower estimator is equal to the pivotal estimator based on support function measurements along four perpendicular rays. This result makes the pivotal estimator a powerful approximation to the flower estimator. In a simulation study of prolate....... If the segmentation is correct the estimate is computed automatically, otherwise the expert performs the necessary measurements manually. In case of convex particles we suggest to base the semiautomatic estimation on the so-called flower estimator, a new local stereological estimator of particle surface area....... For convex particles, the estimator is equal to four times the area of the support set (flower set) of the particle transect. We study the statistical properties of the flower estimator and compare its performance to that of two discretizations of the flower estimator, namely the pivotal estimator...

  5. Estimating sediment discharge: Appendix D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, John R.; Simões, Francisco J. M.

    2008-01-01

    Sediment-discharge measurements usually are available on a discrete or periodic basis. However, estimates of sediment transport often are needed for unmeasured periods, such as when daily or annual sediment-discharge values are sought, or when estimates of transport rates for unmeasured or hypothetical flows are required. Selected methods for estimating suspended-sediment, bed-load, bed- material-load, and total-load discharges have been presented in some detail elsewhere in this volume. The purposes of this contribution are to present some limitations and potential pitfalls associated with obtaining and using the requisite data and equations to estimate sediment discharges and to provide guidance for selecting appropriate estimating equations. Records of sediment discharge are derived from data collected with sufficient frequency to obtain reliable estimates for the computational interval and period. Most sediment- discharge records are computed at daily or annual intervals based on periodically collected data, although some partial records represent discrete or seasonal intervals such as those for flood periods. The method used to calculate sediment- discharge records is dependent on the types and frequency of available data. Records for suspended-sediment discharge computed by methods described by Porterfield (1972) are most prevalent, in part because measurement protocols and computational techniques are well established and because suspended sediment composes the bulk of sediment dis- charges for many rivers. Discharge records for bed load, total load, or in some cases bed-material load plus wash load are less common. Reliable estimation of sediment discharges presupposes that the data on which the estimates are based are comparable and reliable. Unfortunately, data describing a selected characteristic of sediment were not necessarily derived—collected, processed, analyzed, or interpreted—in a consistent manner. For example, bed-load data collected with

  6. Estimating Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hakim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Accumulating foreign exchange reserves, despite their cost and their impacts on other macroeconomics variables, provides some benefits. This paper models such foreign exchange reserves. To measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves for import, it uses total reserves-to-import ratio (TRM. The chosen independent variables are gross domestic product growth, exchange rates, opportunity cost, and a dummy variable separating the pre and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. To estimate the risky TRM value, this paper uses conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR, with the help of Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR model to estimate the conditional volatility. The results suggest that all independent variables significantly influence TRM. They also suggest that the short and long run volatilities are evident, with the additional evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive past shocks. The VaR, which are calculated assuming both normal and t distributions, provide similar results, namely violations in 2005 and 2008.

  7. Organ volume estimation using SPECT

    CERN Document Server

    Zaidi, H

    1996-01-01

    Knowledge of in vivo thyroid volume has both diagnostic and therapeutic importance and could lead to a more precise quantification of absolute activity contained in the thyroid gland. In order to improve single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) quantitation, attenuation correction was performed according to Chang's algorithm. The dual-window method was used for scatter subtraction. We used a Monte Carlo simulation of the SPECT system to accurately determine the scatter multiplier factor k. Volume estimation using SPECT was performed by summing up the volume elements (voxels) lying within the contour of the object, determined by a fixed threshold and the gray level histogram (GLH) method. Thyroid phantom and patient studies were performed and the influence of 1) fixed thresholding, 2) automatic thresholding, 3) attenuation, 4) scatter, and 5) reconstruction filter were investigated. This study shows that accurate volume estimation of the thyroid gland is feasible when accurate corrections are perform...

  8. Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

  9. Parameter estimation and inverse problems

    CERN Document Server

    Aster, Richard C; Thurber, Clifford H

    2005-01-01

    Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems primarily serves as a textbook for advanced undergraduate and introductory graduate courses. Class notes have been developed and reside on the World Wide Web for faciliting use and feedback by teaching colleagues. The authors'' treatment promotes an understanding of fundamental and practical issus associated with parameter fitting and inverse problems including basic theory of inverse problems, statistical issues, computational issues, and an understanding of how to analyze the success and limitations of solutions to these probles. The text is also a practical resource for general students and professional researchers, where techniques and concepts can be readily picked up on a chapter-by-chapter basis.Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems is structured around a course at New Mexico Tech and is designed to be accessible to typical graduate students in the physical sciences who may not have an extensive mathematical background. It is accompanied by a Web site that...

  10. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  11. Location Estimation using Delayed Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bak, Martin; Larsen, Thomas Dall; Nørgård, Peter Magnus

    1998-01-01

    When combining data from various sensors it is vital to acknowledge possible measurement delays. Furthermore, the sensor fusion algorithm, often a Kalman filter, should be modified in order to handle the delay. The paper examines different possibilities for handling delays and applies a new techn...... technique to a sensor fusion system for estimating the location of an autonomous guided vehicle. The system fuses encoder and vision measurements in an extended Kalman filter. Results from experiments in a real environment are reported...

  12. Prior information in structure estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav; Nedoma, Petr; Khailova, Natalia; Pavelková, Lenka

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 150, č. 6 (2003), s. 643-653 ISSN 1350-2379 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IBS1075102; GA AV ČR IBS1075351; GA ČR GA102/03/0049 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : prior knowledge * structure estimation * autoregressive models Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 0.745, year: 2003 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/historie/karny-0411258.pdf

  13. Radiation in space: risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

  14. Properties of estimated characteristic roots

    OpenAIRE

    Bent Nielsen; Heino Bohn Nielsen

    2008-01-01

    Estimated characteristic roots in stationary autoregressions are shown to give rather noisy information about their population equivalents. This is remarkable given the central role of the characteristic roots in the theory of autoregressive processes. In the asymptotic analysis the problems appear when multiple roots are present as this implies a non-differentiablity so the δ-method does not apply, convergence rates are slow, and the asymptotic distribution is non-normal. In finite samples ...

  15. Recent estimates of capital flight

    OpenAIRE

    Claessens, Stijn; Naude, David

    1993-01-01

    Researchers and policymakers have in recent years paid considerable attention to the phenomenon of capital flight. Researchers have focused on four questions: What concept should be used to measure capital flight? What figure for capital flight will emerge, using this measure? Can the occurrence and magnitude of capital flight be explained by certain (economic) variables? What policy changes can be useful to reverse capital flight? The authors focus strictly on presenting estimates of capital...

  16. Effort Estimation in BPMS Migration

    OpenAIRE

    Drews, Christopher; Lantow, Birger

    2018-01-01

    Usually Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) are highly integrated in the IT of organizations and are at the core of their business. Thus, migrating from one BPMS solution to another is not a common task. However, there are forces that are pushing organizations to perform this step, e.g. maintenance costs of legacy BPMS or the need for additional functionality. Before the actual migration, the risk and the effort must be evaluated. This work provides a framework for effort estimation re...

  17. Reactor core performance estimating device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Akira; Yamamoto, Toru; Shinpuku, Kimihiro; Chuzen, Takuji; Nishide, Fusayo.

    1995-01-01

    The present invention can autonomously simplify a neural net model thereby enabling to conveniently estimate various amounts which represents reactor core performances by a simple calculation in a short period of time. Namely, a reactor core performance estimation device comprises a nerve circuit net which divides the reactor core into a large number of spacial regions, and receives various physical amounts for each region as input signals for input nerve cells and outputs estimation values of each amount representing the reactor core performances as output signals of output nerve cells. In this case, the nerve circuit net (1) has a structure of extended multi-layered model having direct coupling from an upper stream layer to each of downstream layers, (2) has a forgetting constant q in a corrected equation for a joined load value ω using an inverse error propagation method, (3) learns various amounts representing reactor core performances determined using the physical models as teacher signals, (4) determines the joined load value ω decreased as '0' when it is to less than a predetermined value upon learning described above, and (5) eliminates elements of the nerve circuit net having all of the joined load value decreased to 0. As a result, the neural net model comprises an autonomously simplifying means. (I.S.)

  18. Contact Estimation in Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo D'Ippolito

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, safety issues are examined in a scenario in which a robot manipulator and a human perform the same task in the same workspace. During the task execution, the human should be able to physically interact with the robot, and in this case an estimation algorithm for both interaction forces and a contact point is proposed in order to guarantee safety conditions. The method, starting from residual joint torque estimation, allows both direct and adaptive computation of the contact point and force, based on a principle of equivalence of the contact forces. At the same time, all the unintended contacts must be avoided, and a suitable post-collision strategy is considered to move the robot away from the collision area or else to reduce impact effects. Proper experimental tests have demonstrated the applicability in practice of both the post-impact strategy and the estimation algorithms; furthermore, experiments demonstrate the different behaviour resulting from the adaptation of the contact point as opposed to direct calculation.

  19. Statistical estimation of process holdup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, S.P.

    1988-01-01

    Estimates of potential process holdup and their random and systematic error variances are derived to improve the inventory difference (ID) estimate and its associated measure of uncertainty for a new process at the Savannah River Plant. Since the process is in a start-up phase, data have not yet accumulated for statistical modelling. The material produced in the facility will be a very pure, highly enriched 235U with very small isotopic variability. Therefore, data published in LANL's unclassified report on Estimation Methods for Process Holdup of a Special Nuclear Materials was used as a starting point for the modelling process. LANL's data were gathered through a series of designed measurements of special nuclear material (SNM) holdup at two of their materials-processing facilities. Also, they had taken steps to improve the quality of data through controlled, larger scale, experiments outside of LANL at highly enriched uranium processing facilities. The data they have accumulated are on an equipment component basis. Our modelling has been restricted to the wet chemistry area. We have developed predictive models for each of our process components based on the LANL data. 43 figs

  20. Abundance estimation and conservation biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.D.; MacKenzie, D.I.

    2004-01-01

    Abundance is the state variable of interest in most population–level ecological research and in most programs involving management and conservation of animal populations. Abundance is the single parameter of interest in capture–recapture models for closed populations (e.g., Darroch, 1958; Otis et al., 1978; Chao, 2001). The initial capture–recapture models developed for partially (Darroch, 1959) and completely (Jolly, 1965; Seber, 1965) open populations represented efforts to relax the restrictive assumption of population closure for the purpose of estimating abundance. Subsequent emphases in capture–recapture work were on survival rate estimation in the 1970’s and 1980’s (e.g., Burnham et al., 1987; Lebreton et al.,1992), and on movement estimation in the 1990’s (Brownie et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 1993). However, from the mid–1990’s until the present time, capture–recapture investigators have expressed a renewed interest in abundance and related parameters (Pradel, 1996; Schwarz & Arnason, 1996; Schwarz, 2001). The focus of this session was abundance, and presentations covered topics ranging from estimation of abundance and rate of change in abundance, to inferences about the demographic processes underlying changes in abundance, to occupancy as a surrogate of abundance. The plenary paper by Link & Barker (2004) is provocative and very interesting, and it contains a number of important messages and suggestions. Link & Barker (2004) emphasize that the increasing complexity of capture–recapture models has resulted in large numbers of parameters and that a challenge to ecologists is to extract ecological signals from this complexity. They offer hierarchical models as a natural approach to inference in which traditional parameters are viewed as realizations of stochastic processes. These processes are governed by hyperparameters, and the inferential approach focuses on these hyperparameters. Link & Barker (2004) also suggest that our attention

  1. Abundance estimation and Conservation Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichols, J. D.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abundance is the state variable of interest in most population–level ecological research and in most programs involving management and conservation of animal populations. Abundance is the single parameter of interest in capture–recapture models for closed populations (e.g., Darroch, 1958; Otis et al., 1978; Chao, 2001. The initial capture–recapture models developed for partially (Darroch, 1959 and completely (Jolly, 1965; Seber, 1965 open populations represented efforts to relax the restrictive assumption of population closure for the purpose of estimating abundance. Subsequent emphases in capture–recapture work were on survival rate estimation in the 1970’s and 1980’s (e.g., Burnham et al., 1987; Lebreton et al.,1992, and on movement estimation in the 1990’s (Brownie et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 1993. However, from the mid–1990’s until the present time, capture–recapture investigators have expressed a renewed interest in abundance and related parameters (Pradel, 1996; Schwarz & Arnason, 1996; Schwarz, 2001. The focus of this session was abundance, and presentations covered topics ranging from estimation of abundance and rate of change in abundance, to inferences about the demographic processes underlying changes in abundance, to occupancy as a surrogate of abundance. The plenary paper by Link & Barker (2004 is provocative and very interesting, and it contains a number of important messages and suggestions. Link & Barker (2004 emphasize that the increasing complexity of capture–recapture models has resulted in large numbers of parameters and that a challenge to ecologists is to extract ecological signals from this complexity. They offer hierarchical models as a natural approach to inference in which traditional parameters are viewed as realizations of stochastic processes. These processes are governed by hyperparameters, and the inferential approach focuses on these hyperparameters. Link & Barker (2004 also suggest that

  2. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  3. Thermodynamics and life span estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuddusi, Lütfullah

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey is estimated by applying the first and second laws of thermodynamics to the human body. The people living in different regions of Turkey have different food habits. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to calculate the entropy generation rate per unit mass of a human due to the food habits. The lifetime entropy generation per unit mass of a human was previously found statistically. The two entropy generations, lifetime entropy generation and entropy generation rate, enable one to determine the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey with different food habits. In order to estimate the life span, some statistics of Turkish Statistical Institute regarding the food habits of the people living in seven regions of Turkey are used. The life spans of people that live in Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia regions are the longest and shortest, respectively. Generally, the following inequality regarding the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey is found: Eastern Anatolia < Southeast Anatolia < Black Sea < Mediterranean < Marmara < Aegean < Central Anatolia. - Highlights: • The first and second laws of thermodynamics are applied to the human body. • The entropy generation of a human due to his food habits is determined. • The life span of Turks is estimated by using the entropy generation method. • Food habits of a human have effect on his life span

  4. The estimation of genetic divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmquist, R.; Conroy, T.

    1981-01-01

    Consideration is given to the criticism of Nei and Tateno (1978) of the REH (random evolutionary hits) theory of genetic divergence in nucleic acids and proteins, and to their proposed alternative estimator of total fixed mutations designated X2. It is argued that the assumption of nonuniform amino acid or nucleotide substitution will necessarily increase REH estimates relative to those made for a model where each locus has an equal likelihood of fixing mutations, thus the resulting value will not be an overestimation. The relative values of X2 and measures calculated on the basis of the PAM and REH theories for the number of nucleotide substitutions necessary to explain a given number of observed amino acid differences between two homologous proteins are compared, and the smaller values of X2 are attributed to (1) a mathematical model based on the incorrect assumption that an entire structural gene is free to fix mutations and (2) the assumptions of different numbers of variable codons for the X2 and REH calculations. Results of a repeat of the computer simulations of Nei and Tateno are presented which, in contrast to the original results, confirm the REH theory. It is pointed out that while a negative correlation is observed between estimations of the fixation intensity per varion and the number of varions for a given pair of sequences, the correlation between the two fixation intensities and varion numbers of two different pairs of sequences need not be negative. Finally, REH theory is used to resolve a paradox concerning the high rate of covarion turnover and the nature of general function sites as permanent covarions.

  5. Nonparametric e-Mixture Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Ken; Hino, Hideitsu; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

    2016-12-01

    This study considers the common situation in data analysis when there are few observations of the distribution of interest or the target distribution, while abundant observations are available from auxiliary distributions. In this situation, it is natural to compensate for the lack of data from the target distribution by using data sets from these auxiliary distributions-in other words, approximating the target distribution in a subspace spanned by a set of auxiliary distributions. Mixture modeling is one of the simplest ways to integrate information from the target and auxiliary distributions in order to express the target distribution as accurately as possible. There are two typical mixtures in the context of information geometry: the [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-mixtures. The [Formula: see text]-mixture is applied in a variety of research fields because of the presence of the well-known expectation-maximazation algorithm for parameter estimation, whereas the [Formula: see text]-mixture is rarely used because of its difficulty of estimation, particularly for nonparametric models. The [Formula: see text]-mixture, however, is a well-tempered distribution that satisfies the principle of maximum entropy. To model a target distribution with scarce observations accurately, this letter proposes a novel framework for a nonparametric modeling of the [Formula: see text]-mixture and a geometrically inspired estimation algorithm. As numerical examples of the proposed framework, a transfer learning setup is considered. The experimental results show that this framework works well for three types of synthetic data sets, as well as an EEG real-world data set.

  6. Dose estimation by biological methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrero C, C.; David C, L.; Serment G, J.; Brena V, M.

    1997-01-01

    The human being is exposed to strong artificial radiation sources, mainly of two forms: the first is referred to the occupationally exposed personnel (POE) and the second, to the persons that require radiological treatment. A third form less common is by accidents. In all these conditions it is very important to estimate the absorbed dose. The classical biological dosimetry is based in the dicentric analysis. The present work is part of researches to the process to validate the In situ Fluorescent hybridation (FISH) technique which allows to analyse the aberrations on the chromosomes. (Author)

  7. Stochastic estimation of electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapetanovic, I.; Konjic, T.; Zahirovic, Z.

    1999-01-01

    Electricity consumption forecasting represents a part of the stable functioning of the power system. It is very important because of rationality and increase of control process efficiency and development planning of all aspects of society. On a scientific basis, forecasting is a possible way to solve problems. Among different models that have been used in the area of forecasting, the stochastic aspect of forecasting as a part of quantitative models takes a very important place in applications. ARIMA models and Kalman filter as stochastic estimators have been treated together for electricity consumption forecasting. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to present the stochastic forecasting aspect using short time series. (author)

  8. Size Estimates in Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Di Cristo, Michele

    2014-01-06

    Detection of inclusions or obstacles inside a body by boundary measurements is an inverse problems very useful in practical applications. When only finite numbers of measurements are available, we try to detect some information on the embedded object such as its size. In this talk we review some recent results on several inverse problems. The idea is to provide constructive upper and lower estimates of the area/volume of the unknown defect in terms of a quantity related to the work that can be expressed with the available boundary data.

  9. Location Estimation of Mobile Devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamil ŽIDEK

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This contribution describes mathematical model (kinematics for Mobile Robot carriage. The mathematical model is fully parametric. Model is designed universally for any measures three or four wheeled carriage. The next conditions are: back wheels are driving-wheel, front wheels change angle of Robot turning. Position of the front wheel gives the actual position of the robot. Position of the robot is described by coordinates x, y and by angle of the front wheel α in reference position. Main reason for model implementation is indoor navigation. We need some estimation of robot position especially after turning of the Robot. Next use is for outdoor navigation especially for precising GPS information.

  10. Estimation of the energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ailleret

    1955-01-01

    The present report draws up the balance on the present and estimable energy consumption for the next twenty years. The present energy comes mainly of the consumption of coal, oil products and essentially hydraulic electric energy. the market development comes essentially of the development the industrial activity and of new applications tributary of the cost and the distribution of the electric energy. To this effect, the atomic energy offers good industrial perspectives in complement of the energy present resources in order to answer the new needs. (M.B.) [fr

  11. Random Decrement Based FRF Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brincker, Rune; Asmussen, J. C.

    to speed and quality. The basis of the new method is the Fourier transformation of the Random Decrement functions which can be used to estimate the frequency response functions. The investigations are based on load and response measurements of a laboratory model of a 3 span bridge. By applying both methods...... that the Random Decrement technique is based on a simple controlled averaging of time segments of the load and response processes. Furthermore, the Random Decrement technique is expected to produce reliable results. The Random Decrement technique will reduce leakage, since the Fourier transformation...

  12. Random Decrement Based FRF Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brincker, Rune; Asmussen, J. C.

    1997-01-01

    to speed and quality. The basis of the new method is the Fourier transformation of the Random Decrement functions which can be used to estimate the frequency response functions. The investigations are based on load and response measurements of a laboratory model of a 3 span bridge. By applying both methods...... that the Random Decrement technique is based on a simple controlled averaging of time segments of the load and response processes. Furthermore, the Random Decrement technique is expected to produce reliable results. The Random Decrement technique will reduce leakage, since the Fourier transformation...

  13. Applied parameter estimation for chemical engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Englezos, Peter

    2000-01-01

    Formulation of the parameter estimation problem; computation of parameters in linear models-linear regression; Gauss-Newton method for algebraic models; other nonlinear regression methods for algebraic models; Gauss-Newton method for ordinary differential equation (ODE) models; shortcut estimation methods for ODE models; practical guidelines for algorithm implementation; constrained parameter estimation; Gauss-Newton method for partial differential equation (PDE) models; statistical inferences; design of experiments; recursive parameter estimation; parameter estimation in nonlinear thermodynam

  14. Graph Sampling for Covariance Estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Chepuri, Sundeep Prabhakar

    2017-04-25

    In this paper the focus is on subsampling as well as reconstructing the second-order statistics of signals residing on nodes of arbitrary undirected graphs. Second-order stationary graph signals may be obtained by graph filtering zero-mean white noise and they admit a well-defined power spectrum whose shape is determined by the frequency response of the graph filter. Estimating the graph power spectrum forms an important component of stationary graph signal processing and related inference tasks such as Wiener prediction or inpainting on graphs. The central result of this paper is that by sampling a significantly smaller subset of vertices and using simple least squares, we can reconstruct the second-order statistics of the graph signal from the subsampled observations, and more importantly, without any spectral priors. To this end, both a nonparametric approach as well as parametric approaches including moving average and autoregressive models for the graph power spectrum are considered. The results specialize for undirected circulant graphs in that the graph nodes leading to the best compression rates are given by the so-called minimal sparse rulers. A near-optimal greedy algorithm is developed to design the subsampling scheme for the non-parametric and the moving average models, whereas a particular subsampling scheme that allows linear estimation for the autoregressive model is proposed. Numerical experiments on synthetic as well as real datasets related to climatology and processing handwritten digits are provided to demonstrate the developed theory.

  15. Note on demographic estimates 1979.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    Based on UN projections, national projections, and the South Pacific Commission data, the ESCAP Population Division has compiled estimates of the 1979 population and demogaphic figures for the 38 member countries and associate members. The 1979 population is estimated at 2,400 million, 55% of the world total of 4,336 million. China comprises 39% of the region, India, 28%. China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan comprise 6 of the 10 largest countries in the world. China and India are growing at the rate of 1 million people per month. Between 1978-9 Hong Kong experienced the highest rate of growth, 6.2%, Niue the lowest, 4.5%. Life expectancy at birth is 58.7 years in the ESCAP region, but is over 70 in Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. At 75.2 years life expectancy in Japan is highest in the world. By world standards, a high percentage of females aged 16-64 are economically active. More than half the women aged 15-64 are in the labor force in 10 of the ESCAP countries. The region is still 73% rural. By the end of the 20th century the population of the ESCAP region is projected at 3,272 million, a 36% increase over the 1979 total.

  16. Practical global oceanic state estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

    2007-06-01

    The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

  17. LOD estimation from DORIS observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanek, Petr; Filler, Vratislav; Buday, Michal; Hugentobler, Urs

    2016-04-01

    The difference between astronomically determined duration of the day and 86400 seconds is called length of day (LOD). The LOD could be also understood as the daily rate of the difference between the Universal Time UT1, based on the Earth rotation, and the International Atomic Time TAI. The LOD is estimated using various Satellite Geodesy techniques as GNSS and SLR, while absolute UT1-TAI difference is precisely determined by VLBI. Contrary to other IERS techniques, the LOD estimation using DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by satellite) measurement did not achieve a geodetic accuracy in the past, reaching the precision at the level of several ms per day. However, recent experiments performed by IDS (International DORIS Service) analysis centre at Geodetic Observatory Pecny show a possibility to reach accuracy around 0.1 ms per day, when not adjusting the cross-track harmonics in the Satellite orbit model. The paper presents the long term LOD series determined from the DORIS solutions. The series are compared with C04 as the reference. Results are discussed in the context of accuracy achieved with GNSS and SLR. Besides the multi-satellite DORIS solutions, also the LOD series from the individual DORIS satellite solutions are analysed.

  18. CONSTRUCTING ACCOUNTING UNCERTAINITY ESTIMATES VARIABLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nino Serdarevic

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents research results on the BIH firms’ financial reporting quality, utilizing empirical relation between accounting conservatism, generated in created critical accounting policy choices, and management abilities in estimates and prediction power of domicile private sector accounting. Primary research is conducted based on firms’ financial statements, constructing CAPCBIH (Critical Accounting Policy Choices relevant in B&H variable that presents particular internal control system and risk assessment; and that influences financial reporting positions in accordance with specific business environment. I argue that firms’ management possesses no relevant capacity to determine risks and true consumption of economic benefits, leading to creation of hidden reserves in inventories and accounts payable; and latent losses for bad debt and assets revaluations. I draw special attention to recent IFRS convergences to US GAAP, especially in harmonizing with FAS 130 Reporting comprehensive income (in revised IAS 1 and FAS 157 Fair value measurement. CAPCBIH variable, resulted in very poor performance, presents considerable lack of recognizing environment specifics. Furthermore, I underline the importance of revised ISAE and re-enforced role of auditors in assessing relevance of management estimates.

  19. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  20. Variance function estimation for immunoassays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raab, G.M.; Thompson, R.; McKenzie, I.

    1980-01-01

    A computer program is described which implements a recently described, modified likelihood method of determining an appropriate weighting function to use when fitting immunoassay dose-response curves. The relationship between the variance of the response and its mean value is assumed to have an exponential form, and the best fit to this model is determined from the within-set variability of many small sets of repeated measurements. The program estimates the parameter of the exponential function with its estimated standard error, and tests the fit of the experimental data to the proposed model. Output options include a list of the actual and fitted standard deviation of the set of responses, a plot of actual and fitted standard deviation against the mean response, and an ordered list of the 10 sets of data with the largest ratios of actual to fitted standard deviation. The program has been designed for a laboratory user without computing or statistical expertise. The test-of-fit has proved valuable for identifying outlying responses, which may be excluded from further analysis by being set to negative values in the input file. (Auth.)

  1. Information and crystal structure estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkins, S.W.; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Clayton; Varghese, J.N.; Steenstrup, S.

    1984-01-01

    The conceptual foundations of a general information-theoretic based approach to X-ray structure estimation are reexamined with a view to clarifying some of the subtleties inherent in the approach and to enhancing the scope of the method. More particularly, general reasons for choosing the minimum of the Shannon-Kullback measure for information as the criterion for inference are discussed and it is shown that the minimum information (or maximum entropy) principle enters the present treatment of the structure estimation problem in at least to quite separate ways, and that three formally similar but conceptually quite different expressions for relative information appear at different points in the theory. One of these is the general Shannon-Kullback expression, while the second is a derived form pertaining only under the restrictive assumptions of the present stochastic model for allowed structures, and the third is a measure of the additional information involved in accepting a fluctuation relative to an arbitrary mean structure. (orig.)

  2. Magnetic field generation by pointwise zero-helicity three-dimensional steady flow of an incompressible electrically conducting fluid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasskazov, Andrey; Chertovskih, Roman; Zheligovsky, Vladislav

    2018-04-01

    We introduce six families of three-dimensional space-periodic steady solenoidal flows, whose kinetic helicity density is zero at any point. Four families are analytically defined. Flows in four families have zero helicity spectrum. Sample flows from five families are used to demonstrate numerically that neither zero kinetic helicity density nor zero helicity spectrum prohibit generation of large-scale magnetic field by the two most prominent dynamo mechanisms: the magnetic α -effect and negative eddy diffusivity. Our computations also attest that such flows often generate small-scale field for sufficiently small magnetic molecular diffusivity. These findings indicate that kinetic helicity and helicity spectrum are not the quantities controlling the dynamo properties of a flow regardless of whether scale separation is present or not.

  3. A Posteriori Comparison of Natural and Surgical Destabilization Models of Canine Osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim Moreau

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For many years Canis familiaris, the domestic dog, has drawn particular interest as a model of osteoarthritis (OA. Here, we optimized the dog model of experimental OA induced by cranial cruciate ligament sectioning. The usefulness of noninvasive complementary outcome measures, such as gait analysis for the limb function and magnetic resonance imaging for structural changes, was demonstrated in this model. Relationships were established between the functional impairment and the severity of structural changes including the measurement of cartilage thinning. In the dog model of naturally occurring OA, excellent test-retest reliability was denoted for the measurement of the limb function. A criterion to identify clinically meaningful responders to therapy was determined for privately owned dogs undergoing clinical trials. In addition, the recording of accelerometer-based duration of locomotor activity showed strong and complementary agreement with the biomechanical limb function. The translation potential of these models to the human OA condition is underlined. A preclinical testing protocol which combines the dog model of experimental OA induced by cranial cruciate ligament transection and the Dog model of naturally occurring OA offers the opportunity to further investigate the structural and functional benefits of disease-modifying strategies. Ultimately, a better prediction of outcomes for human clinical trials would be brought.

  4. A Posteriori Comparison of Natural and Surgical Destabilization Models of Canine Osteoarthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jean-Pierre; d'Anjou, Marc-André; Blond, Laurent; Pelletier, Johanne-Martel; del Castillo, Jérôme R. E.

    2013-01-01

    For many years Canis familiaris, the domestic dog, has drawn particular interest as a model of osteoarthritis (OA). Here, we optimized the dog model of experimental OA induced by cranial cruciate ligament sectioning. The usefulness of noninvasive complementary outcome measures, such as gait analysis for the limb function and magnetic resonance imaging for structural changes, was demonstrated in this model. Relationships were established between the functional impairment and the severity of structural changes including the measurement of cartilage thinning. In the dog model of naturally occurring OA, excellent test-retest reliability was denoted for the measurement of the limb function. A criterion to identify clinically meaningful responders to therapy was determined for privately owned dogs undergoing clinical trials. In addition, the recording of accelerometer-based duration of locomotor activity showed strong and complementary agreement with the biomechanical limb function. The translation potential of these models to the human OA condition is underlined. A preclinical testing protocol which combines the dog model of experimental OA induced by cranial cruciate ligament transection and the Dog model of naturally occurring OA offers the opportunity to further investigate the structural and functional benefits of disease-modifying strategies. Ultimately, a better prediction of outcomes for human clinical trials would be brought. PMID:24288664

  5. Modelling of Turbulent Lifted Jet Flames using flamelets: a priori assessment and a posteriori validation

    OpenAIRE

    Ruan, S; Swaminathan, Nedunchezhian; Darbyshire, O

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on the modelling of turbulent lifted jet flames using flamelets and presumed PDF approach with interests on both flame lift-off height and flame brush structure. First, flamelet models used to capture contributions from premixed and non-premixed modes to the partially premixed combustion in the lifted jet flame are assessed using a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data for turbulent lifted hydrogen jet flame. The joint PDFs of mixture fraction, Z, and progress ...

  6. Statistical concepts of a priori and a posteriori risk classification in insurance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Valdez, E.

    2012-01-01

    Everyday we face all kinds of risks, and insurance is in the business of providing us a means to transfer or share these risks, usually to eliminate or reduce the resulting financial burden, in exchange for a predetermined price or tariff. Actuaries are considered professional experts in the

  7. A Posteriori Error Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Adaptive Multiscale Operator Decomposition Methods for Multiphysics Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-24

    l> h L), MFE2 or GFV2 = (RUR:<p h R-n h R<t> h R), MFEi or GFV, = (RPLXl-P hdhL), MFE , or GFV4 = (RPR.,^-P^), MFE5 or GFV5 = {Ri,ß h...common to both MFE and GFV, are often similar in size. As a gross measure of the effect of geometric progression and of the use of quadrature, we...their true value, the error in the quantity of interest MFE £(e,!//) or GFV £(<?, y/). Tables 1 and 2 show this using coarse and fine forward

  8. Inverse constraints for emission fluxes of atmospheric tracers estimated from concentration measurements and Lagrangian transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisso, Ignacio; Patra, Prabir; Breivik, Knut

    2015-04-01

    Lagrangian transport models based on times series of Eulerian fields provide a computationally affordable way of achieving very high resolution for limited areas and time periods. This makes them especially suitable for the analysis of point-wise measurements of atmospheric tracers. We present an application illustrated with examples of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic emissions in urban areas and biogenic emissions in Japan and of pollutants in the Arctic. We asses the algorithmic complexity of the numerical implementation as well as the use of non-procedural techniques such as Object-Oriented programming. We discuss aspects related to the quantification of uncertainty from prior information in the presence of model error and limited number of observations. The case of non-linear constraints is explored using direct numerical optimisation methods.

  9. PHAZE, Parametric Hazard Function Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: Phaze performs statistical inference calculations on a hazard function (also called a failure rate or intensity function) based on reported failure times of components that are repaired and restored to service. Three parametric models are allowed: the exponential, linear, and Weibull hazard models. The inference includes estimation (maximum likelihood estimators and confidence regions) of the parameters and of the hazard function itself, testing of hypotheses such as increasing failure rate, and checking of the model assumptions. 2 - Methods: PHAZE assumes that the failures of a component follow a time-dependent (or non-homogenous) Poisson process and that the failure counts in non-overlapping time intervals are independent. Implicit in the independence property is the assumption that the component is restored to service immediately after any failure, with negligible repair time. The failures of one component are assumed to be independent of those of another component; a proportional hazards model is used. Data for a component are called time censored if the component is observed for a fixed time-period, or plant records covering a fixed time-period are examined, and the failure times are recorded. The number of these failures is random. Data are called failure censored if the component is kept in service until a predetermined number of failures has occurred, at which time the component is removed from service. In this case, the number of failures is fixed, but the end of the observation period equals the final failure time and is random. A typical PHAZE session consists of reading failure data from a file prepared previously, selecting one of the three models, and performing data analysis (i.e., performing the usual statistical inference about the parameters of the model, with special emphasis on the parameter(s) that determine whether the hazard function is increasing). The final goals of the inference are a point estimate

  10. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-01-01

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods

  11. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  12. Neutron background estimates in GESA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernandes A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The SIMPLE project looks for nuclear recoil events generated by rare dark matter scattering interactions. Nuclear recoils are also produced by more prevalent cosmogenic neutron interactions. While the rock overburden shields against (μ,n neutrons to below 10−8 cm−2 s−1, it itself contributes via radio-impurities. Additional shielding of these is similar, both suppressing and contributing neutrons. We report on the Monte Carlo (MCNP estimation of the on-detector neutron backgrounds for the SIMPLE experiment located in the GESA facility of the Laboratoire Souterrain à Bas Bruit, and its use in defining additional shielding for measurements which have led to a reduction in the extrinsic neutron background to ∼ 5 × 10−3 evts/kgd. The calculated event rate induced by the neutron background is ∼ 0,3 evts/kgd, with a dominant contribution from the detector container.

  13. Mergers as an Omega estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlberg, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    The redshift dependence of the fraction of galaxies which are merging or strongly interacting is a steep function of Omega and depends on the ratio of the cutoff velocity for interactions to the pairwise velocity dispersion. For typical galaxies the merger rate is shown to vary as (1 + z)exp m, where m is about 4.51 (Omega)exp 0.42, for Omega near 1 and a CDM-like cosmology. The index m has a relatively weak dependence on the maximum merger velocity, the mass of the galaxy, and the background cosmology, for small variations around a cosmology with a low redshift, z of about 2, of galaxy formation. Estimates of m from optical and IRAS galaxies have found that m is about 3-4, but with very large uncertainties. If quasar evolution follows the evolution of galaxy merging and m for quasars is greater than 4, then Omega is greater than 0.8. 21 refs

  14. 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, C A; Belles, R D; Simon, A J

    2011-03-10

    An energy flow chart or 'atlas' for 136 countries has been constructed from data maintained by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and estimates of energy use patterns for the year 2007. Approximately 490 exajoules (460 quadrillion BTU) of primary energy are used in aggregate by these countries each year. While the basic structure of the energy system is consistent from country to country, patterns of resource use and consumption vary. Energy can be visualized as it flows from resources (i.e. coal, petroleum, natural gas) through transformations such as electricity generation to end uses (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial, transportation). These flow patterns are visualized in this atlas of 136 country-level energy flow charts.

  15. Data Handling and Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist

    2016-01-01

    ,engineers, and professionals. However, it is also expected that they will be useful both for graduate teaching as well as a stepping stone for academic researchers who wish to expand their theoretical interest in the subject. For the models selected to interpret the experimental data, this chapter uses available models from...... literature that are mostly based on the ActivatedSludge Model (ASM) framework and their appropriate extensions (Henze et al., 2000).The chapter presents an overview of the most commonly used methods in the estimation of parameters from experimental batch data, namely: (i) data handling and validation, (ii......Modelling is one of the key tools at the disposal of modern wastewater treatment professionals, researchers and engineers. It enables them to study and understand complex phenomena underlying the physical, chemical and biological performance of wastewater treatment plants at different temporal...

  16. Model for traffic emissions estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Mitsoulis, E.

    A model is developed for the spatial and temporal evaluation of traffic emissions in metropolitan areas based on sparse measurements. All traffic data available are fully employed and the pollutant emissions are determined with the highest precision possible. The main roads are regarded as line sources of constant traffic parameters in the time interval considered. The method is flexible and allows for the estimation of distributed small traffic sources (non-line/area sources). The emissions from the latter are assumed to be proportional to the local population density as well as to the traffic density leading to local main arteries. The contribution of moving vehicles to air pollution in the Greater Athens Area for the period 1986-1988 is analyzed using the proposed model. Emissions and other related parameters are evaluated. Emissions from area sources were found to have a noticeable share of the overall air pollution.

  17. Effort Estimation in BPMS Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Drews

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Usually Business Process Management Systems (BPMS are highly integrated in the IT of organizations and are at the core of their business. Thus, migrating from one BPMS solution to another is not a common task. However, there are forces that are pushing organizations to perform this step, e.g. maintenance costs of legacy BPMS or the need for additional functionality. Before the actual migration, the risk and the effort must be evaluated. This work provides a framework for effort estimation regarding the technical aspects of BPMS migration. The framework provides questions for BPMS comparison and an effort evaluation schema. The applicability of the framework is evaluated based on a simplified BPMS migration scenario.

  18. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis

  19. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  20. Runoff estimation in residencial area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meire Regina de Almeida Siqueira

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to estimate the watershed runoff caused by extreme events that often result in the flooding of urban areas. The runoff of a residential area in the city of Guaratinguetá, São Paulo, Brazil was estimated using the Curve-Number method proposed by USDA-NRCS. The study also investigated current land use and land cover conditions, impermeable areas with pasture and indications of the reforestation of those areas. Maps and satellite images of Residential Riverside I Neighborhood were used to characterize the area. In addition to characterizing land use and land cover, the definition of the soil type infiltration capacity, the maximum local rainfall, and the type and quality of the drainage system were also investigated. The study showed that this neighborhood, developed in 1974, has an area of 792,700 m², a population of 1361 inhabitants, and a sloping area covered with degraded pasture (Guaratinguetá-Piagui Peak located in front of the residential area. The residential area is located in a flat area near the Paraiba do Sul River, and has a poor drainage system with concrete pipes, mostly 0.60 m in diameter, with several openings that capture water and sediments from the adjacent sloping area. The Low Impact Development (LID system appears to be a viable solution for this neighborhood drainage system. It can be concluded that the drainage system of the Guaratinguetá Riverside I Neighborhood has all of the conditions and characteristics that make it suitable for the implementation of a low impact urban drainage system. Reforestation of Guaratinguetá-Piagui Peak can reduce the basin’s runoff by 50% and minimize flooding problems in the Beira Rio neighborhood.

  1. Estimated status 2006-2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    According to article 6 of the French law from February 10, 2000 relative to the modernization and development of the electric public utility, the manager of the public power transportation grid (RTE) has to produce, at least every two years and under the control of the French government, a pluri-annual estimated status. Then, the energy ministry uses this status to prepare the pluri-annual planning of power production investments. The estimated status aims at establishing a medium- and long-term diagnosis of the balance between power supply and demand and at evaluating the new production capacity needs to ensure a durable security of power supplies. The hypotheses relative to the power consumption and to the evolution of the power production means and trades are presented in chapters 2 to 4. Chapter 5 details the methodology and modeling principles retained for the supply-demand balance simulations. Chapter 6 presents the probabilistic simulation results at the 2006, 2010 and 2015 prospects and indicates the volumes of reinforcement of the production parks which would warrant an acceptable level of security. Chapter 7 develops the critical problem of winter demand peaks and evokes the possibilities linked with demand reduction, market resources and use of the existing park. Finally, chapter 8 makes a synthesis of the technical conclusions and recalls the determining hypotheses that have been retained. The particular situations of western France, of the Mediterranean and Paris region, and of Corsica and overseas territories are examined in chapter 9. The simulation results for all consumption-production scenarios and the wind-power production data are presented in appendixes. (J.S.)

  2. Estimating location without external cues.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Cheung

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The ability to determine one's location is fundamental to spatial navigation. Here, it is shown that localization is theoretically possible without the use of external cues, and without knowledge of initial position or orientation. With only error-prone self-motion estimates as input, a fully disoriented agent can, in principle, determine its location in familiar spaces with 1-fold rotational symmetry. Surprisingly, localization does not require the sensing of any external cue, including the boundary. The combination of self-motion estimates and an internal map of the arena provide enough information for localization. This stands in conflict with the supposition that 2D arenas are analogous to open fields. Using a rodent error model, it is shown that the localization performance which can be achieved is enough to initiate and maintain stable firing patterns like those of grid cells, starting from full disorientation. Successful localization was achieved when the rotational asymmetry was due to the external boundary, an interior barrier or a void space within an arena. Optimal localization performance was found to depend on arena shape, arena size, local and global rotational asymmetry, and the structure of the path taken during localization. Since allothetic cues including visual and boundary contact cues were not present, localization necessarily relied on the fusion of idiothetic self-motion cues and memory of the boundary. Implications for spatial navigation mechanisms are discussed, including possible relationships with place field overdispersion and hippocampal reverse replay. Based on these results, experiments are suggested to identify if and where information fusion occurs in the mammalian spatial memory system.

  3. Estimation of Poverty in Small Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agne Bikauskaite

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A qualitative techniques of poverty estimation is needed to better implement, monitor and determine national areas where support is most required. The problem of small area estimation (SAE is the production of reliable estimates in areas with small samples. The precision of estimates in strata deteriorates (i.e. the precision decreases when the standard deviation increases, if the sample size is smaller. In these cases traditional direct estimators may be not precise and therefore pointless. Currently there are many indirect methods for SAE. The purpose of this paper is to analyze several diff erent types of techniques which produce small area estimates of poverty.

  4. Coupled land surface-subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Tran, Anh; Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan S.

    2017-09-01

    Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface-subsurface hydrological-thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological-thermal processes associated with annual freeze-thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets - including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data - to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological-thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface-subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice-liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological-thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the

  5. Coupled land surface–subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Tran

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface–subsurface hydrological–thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological–thermal processes associated with annual freeze–thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets – including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT data – to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological–thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface–subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting and ice–liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC optimization algorithm to estimateposteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological–thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and

  6. Robust DOA Estimation of Harmonic Signals Using Constrained Filters on Phase Estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karimian-Azari, Sam; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2014-01-01

    In array signal processing, distances between receivers, e.g., microphones, cause time delays depending on the direction of arrival (DOA) of a signal source. We can then estimate the DOA from the time-difference of arrival (TDOA) estimates. However, many conventional DOA estimators based on TDOA...... estimates are not optimal in colored noise. In this paper, we estimate the DOA of a harmonic signal source from multi-channel phase estimates, which relate to narrowband TDOA estimates. More specifically, we design filters to apply on phase estimates to obtain a DOA estimate with minimum variance. Using...

  7. On the relation between S-Estimators and M-Estimators of multivariate location and covariance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopuhaa, H.P.

    1987-01-01

    We discuss the relation between S-estimators and M-estimators of multivariate location and covariance. As in the case of the estimation of a multiple regression parameter, S-estimators are shown to satisfy first-order conditions of M-estimators. We show that the influence function IF (x;S F) of

  8. Estimation of the energy needs; Estimation des besoins energetiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ailleret, [Electricite de France (EDF), Dir. General des Etudes de Recherches, 75 - Paris (France)

    1955-07-01

    The present report draws up the balance on the present and estimable energy consumption for the next twenty years. The present energy comes mainly of the consumption of coal, oil products and essentially hydraulic electric energy. the market development comes essentially of the development the industrial activity and of new applications tributary of the cost and the distribution of the electric energy. To this effect, the atomic energy offers good industrial perspectives in complement of the energy present resources in order to answer the new needs. (M.B.) [French] Le present rapport dresse le bilan sur la consommation energetique actuelle et previsionnelle pour les vingt prochaines annees. L'energie actuelle provient principalement consommation de charbon, de produits petroliers et d'energie electrique essentiellement hydraulique. l'evolution du marche provient essentielement du developpement l'activite industriel et de nouvelles applications tributaire du cout et de la distribution de l'energie electrique. A cet effet, l'energie atomique offre de bonne perspectives industrielles en complement des sources actuelles energetiques afin de repondre aux nouveaux besoins. (M.B.)

  9. How Valid are Estimates of Occupational Illness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilaski, Harvey J.; Wang, Chao Ling

    1982-01-01

    Examines some of the methods of estimating occupational diseases and suggests that a consensus on the adequacy and reliability of estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and others is not likely. (SK)

  10. State estimation for a hexapod robot

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lubbe, Estelle

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a state estimation methodology for a hexapod robot that makes use of proprioceptive sensors and a kinematic model of the robot. The methodology focuses on providing reliable full pose state estimation for a commercially...

  11. Access Based Cost Estimation for Beddown Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pennington, Jasper E

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop an automated web-enabled beddown estimation application for Air Mobility Command in order to increase the effectiveness and enhance the robustness of beddown estimates...

  12. Estimated annual economic loss from organ condemnation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as a basis for the analysis of estimation of the economic significance of bovine .... percent involvement of each organ were used in the estimation of the financial loss from organ .... DVM thesis, Addis Ababa University, Faculty of Veterinary.

  13. Velocity Estimate Following Air Data System Failure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McLaren, Scott A

    2008-01-01

    .... A velocity estimator (VEST) algorithm was developed to combine the inertial and wind velocities to provide an estimate of the aircraft's current true velocity to be used for command path gain scheduling and for display in the cockpit...

  14. On Estimating Quantiles Using Auxiliary Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berger Yves G.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose a transformation-based approach for estimating quantiles using auxiliary information. The proposed estimators can be easily implemented using a regression estimator. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically unbiased. The main advantage of the proposed estimators is their simplicity. Despite the fact the proposed estimators are not necessarily more efficient than their competitors, they offer a good compromise between accuracy and simplicity. They can be used under single and multistage sampling designs with unequal selection probabilities. A simulation study supports our finding and shows that the proposed estimators are robust and of an acceptable accuracy compared to alternative estimators, which can be more computationally intensive.

  15. On Estimation and Testing for Pareto Tails

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jordanova, P.; Stehlík, M.; Fabián, Zdeněk; Střelec, L.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 1 (2013), s. 89-108 ISSN 0204-9805 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : testing against heavy tails * asymptotic properties of estimators * point estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  16. Estimating the NIH efficient frontier.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Bisias

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The National Institutes of Health (NIH is among the world's largest investors in biomedical research, with a mandate to: "…lengthen life, and reduce the burdens of illness and disability." Its funding decisions have been criticized as insufficiently focused on disease burden. We hypothesize that modern portfolio theory can create a closer link between basic research and outcome, and offer insight into basic-science related improvements in public health. We propose portfolio theory as a systematic framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions-one that is directly tied to the risk/reward trade-off of burden-of-disease outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from 1965 to 2007, we provide estimates of the NIH "efficient frontier", the set of funding allocations across 7 groups of disease-oriented NIH institutes that yield the greatest expected return on investment for a given level of risk, where return on investment is measured by subsequent impact on U.S. years of life lost (YLL. The results suggest that NIH may be actively managing its research risk, given that the volatility of its current allocation is 17% less than that of an equal-allocation portfolio with similar expected returns. The estimated efficient frontier suggests that further improvements in expected return (89% to 119% vs. current or reduction in risk (22% to 35% vs. current are available holding risk or expected return, respectively, constant, and that 28% to 89% greater decrease in average years-of-life-lost per unit risk may be achievable. However, these results also reflect the imprecision of YLL as a measure of disease burden, the noisy statistical link between basic research and YLL, and other known limitations of portfolio theory itself. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and starting point for applying quantitative methods to allocating biomedical research funding that are objective, systematic, transparent

  17. Estimating the NIH efficient frontier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisias, Dimitrios; Lo, Andrew W; Watkins, James F

    2012-01-01

    The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is among the world's largest investors in biomedical research, with a mandate to: "…lengthen life, and reduce the burdens of illness and disability." Its funding decisions have been criticized as insufficiently focused on disease burden. We hypothesize that modern portfolio theory can create a closer link between basic research and outcome, and offer insight into basic-science related improvements in public health. We propose portfolio theory as a systematic framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions-one that is directly tied to the risk/reward trade-off of burden-of-disease outcomes. Using data from 1965 to 2007, we provide estimates of the NIH "efficient frontier", the set of funding allocations across 7 groups of disease-oriented NIH institutes that yield the greatest expected return on investment for a given level of risk, where return on investment is measured by subsequent impact on U.S. years of life lost (YLL). The results suggest that NIH may be actively managing its research risk, given that the volatility of its current allocation is 17% less than that of an equal-allocation portfolio with similar expected returns. The estimated efficient frontier suggests that further improvements in expected return (89% to 119% vs. current) or reduction in risk (22% to 35% vs. current) are available holding risk or expected return, respectively, constant, and that 28% to 89% greater decrease in average years-of-life-lost per unit risk may be achievable. However, these results also reflect the imprecision of YLL as a measure of disease burden, the noisy statistical link between basic research and YLL, and other known limitations of portfolio theory itself. Our analysis is intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and starting point for applying quantitative methods to allocating biomedical research funding that are objective, systematic, transparent, repeatable, and expressly designed to reduce the burden of

  18. Estimating the NIH Efficient Frontier

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is among the world’s largest investors in biomedical research, with a mandate to: “…lengthen life, and reduce the burdens of illness and disability.” Its funding decisions have been criticized as insufficiently focused on disease burden. We hypothesize that modern portfolio theory can create a closer link between basic research and outcome, and offer insight into basic-science related improvements in public health. We propose portfolio theory as a systematic framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions–one that is directly tied to the risk/reward trade-off of burden-of-disease outcomes. Methods and Findings Using data from 1965 to 2007, we provide estimates of the NIH “efficient frontier”, the set of funding allocations across 7 groups of disease-oriented NIH institutes that yield the greatest expected return on investment for a given level of risk, where return on investment is measured by subsequent impact on U.S. years of life lost (YLL). The results suggest that NIH may be actively managing its research risk, given that the volatility of its current allocation is 17% less than that of an equal-allocation portfolio with similar expected returns. The estimated efficient frontier suggests that further improvements in expected return (89% to 119% vs. current) or reduction in risk (22% to 35% vs. current) are available holding risk or expected return, respectively, constant, and that 28% to 89% greater decrease in average years-of-life-lost per unit risk may be achievable. However, these results also reflect the imprecision of YLL as a measure of disease burden, the noisy statistical link between basic research and YLL, and other known limitations of portfolio theory itself. Conclusions Our analysis is intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and starting point for applying quantitative methods to allocating biomedical research funding that are objective, systematic, transparent

  19. Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

    2017-11-01

    In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

  20. Fast and Statistically Efficient Fundamental Frequency Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Jensen, Tobias Lindstrøm; Jensen, Jesper Rindom

    2016-01-01

    Fundamental frequency estimation is a very important task in many applications involving periodic signals. For computational reasons, fast autocorrelation-based estimation methods are often used despite parametric estimation methods having superior estimation accuracy. However, these parametric...... a recursive solver. Via benchmarks, we demonstrate that the computation time is reduced by approximately two orders of magnitude. The proposed fast algorithm is available for download online....