Chikungunya Arthritis: Implications of Acute and Chronic Inflammation Mechanisms on Disease Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaid, Ali; Gérardin, Patrick; Taylor, Adam; Mostafavi, Helen; Malvy, Denis; Mahalingam, Suresh

2018-04-01

In the past decade, arboviruses-arthropod-borne viruses-have been the focus of public health institutions worldwide following a spate of devastating outbreaks. Chikungunya virus, an arbovirus that belongs to the alphavirus genus, is a reemerging arthritogenic virus that has caused explosive outbreaks since 2006, notably on Réunion Island, and more recently in the Caribbean, South America, India, and Southeast Asia. The severity of arthritic disease caused by chikungunya virus has prompted public health authorities in affected countries to develop specific guidelines to tackle this pathogen. Chikungunya virus disease manifests first as an acute stage of severe joint inflammation and febrile illness, which later progresses to a chronic stage, during which patients may experience debilitating and persisting articular pain for extended periods. This review aims to provide a broad perspective on current knowledge of chikungunya virus pathogenesis by identifying key clinical and experimental studies that have contributed to our understanding of chikungunya virus to date. In addition, the review explores the practical aspects of treatment and management of both acute and chronic chikungunya virus based on clinical experience during chikungunya virus outbreaks. Finally, recent findings on potential therapeutic solutions-from antiviral agents to immunomodulators-are reviewed to provide both viral immunologists and clinical rheumatologists with a balanced perspective on the nature of a reemerging arboviral disease of significant public health concern, and insight into future therapeutic approaches to better address the treatment and management of chikungunya virus. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

[First case of chikungunya fever in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Medina, Miguel Ángel; Cañedo-Dorame, Ismael Antonio

2017-01-01

The Chikungunya is an arbovirus first described during a 1952 outbreak of febrile exantematic disease in southern Tanganyika (now Tanzania). It is a virus within the alphavirus genus of the Togaviridae family, it is usually transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Typically, the disease manifests as acute onset of fever and joint pains. This study describes the clinical characteristics the first imported case infected with chikungunya fever (CHIK) in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. We report the case of a 30 years old man seen in our emergency department due to fever, polyarthralgia, rash and headache. This patient has been in Tapachula, Chiapas, a jungle area in southern México, and he returned from a 45 days trip before the onset his symptoms. The chikungunya viral infection (CHIK) was diagnosed by RT-PCR procedure. Paracetamol therapy was administered and his clinical course was self-limited. We concluded that with the increase of mosquito´s habitat by global warming and frequent traveling, CHIK reemerged and showed global distribution recently. This disease must be suspected in patients with compatible clinical symptoms returning from epidemic/endemic areas. CHIK must be diagnosed on the basis of clinical, epidemiological and laboratory criteria.

Dengue, zika, chikungunya and the development of vaccines

OpenAIRE

Isabel N. Kantor

2018-01-01

Dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), three arbovirosis transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, have spread in recent decades in humid tropical and subtropical zones. Dengue is epidemic in subtropical areas of Argentina. DENV infection confers lasting immunity against the infecting serotype but increases the risk of serious disease upon reinfection by any of the other three. The recombinant tetravalent vaccine Dengvaxia® prevents severe dengue and hospitalization in seropositive subjec...

Re-emergence of Chikungunya in India: Molecular studies

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Re-emergence of Chikungunya in India: Molecular studies · PowerPoint Presentation · CHIKUNGUNYA virus · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · CHIKV Genotypes · Slide 7 · In view of long absence of CHIK epidemics, it was postulated that CHIK virus has disappeared from India and South-East Asia. Serological surveys supported this view.

Homeopathic drug therapy. Homeopathy in Chikungunya Fever and Post-Chikungunya Chronic Arthritis: an observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wadhwani, Gyandas G

2013-07-01

To observe the effect of homeopathic therapy in Chikungunya Fever (CF) and in Post-Chikungunya Chronic Arthritis (PCCA) in a primary health care setting. A prospective observational study was conducted at Delhi Government Homeopathic Dispensary, Aali Village, New Delhi, India, for a period of 6 months, from 1st October 2010 to 31st March 2011. 126 patients (75 CF, 51 PCCA) were enrolled based on predefined inclusion criteria. A single homeopathic medicine was prescribed for each patient after case taking with the help of Materia Medica and/or Repertory. Results were evaluated on the basis of visual analogue scale and symptom scores. Complete recovery was seen in 84.5% CF cases in a mean time of 6.8 days. 90% cases of PCCA recovered completely in a mean time of 32.5 days. Homeopathic therapy may be effective in CF and PCCA. A randomized controlled trial should be considered. Copyright © 2013 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chikungunya fever: A re-emerging viral infection

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Chhabra M

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya (CHIK fever is a re-emerging viral disease characterized by abrupt onset of fever with severe arthralgia followed by constitutional symptoms and rash lasting for 1-7 days. The disease is almost self-limiting and rarely fatal. Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a RNA virus belonging to family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus. Molecular characterization has demonstrated two distinct lineages of strains which cause epidemics in Africa and Asia. These geographical genotypes exhibit differences in the transmission cycles. In contrast to Africa where sylvatic cycle is maintained between monkeys and wild mosquitoes, in Asia the cycle continues between humans and the Aedes aegypti mosquito. CHIKV is known to cause epidemics after a period of quiescence. The first recorded epidemic occurred in Tanzania in 1952-1953. In Asia, CHIK activity was documented since its isolation in Bangkok, Thailand in 1958. Virus transmission continued till 1964. After hiatus, the virus activity re-appeared in the mid-1970s and declined by 1976. In India, well-documented outbreaks occurred in 1963 and 1964 in Kolkata and southern India, respectively. Thereafter, a small outbreak of CHIK was reported from Sholapur district, Maharashtra in 1973. CHIKV emerged in the islands of South West Indian Ocean viz. French island of La Reunion, Mayotee, Mauritius and Seychelles which are reporting the outbreak since February, 2005. After quiescence of about three decades, CHIKV re-emerged in India in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu since December, 2005. Cases have also been reported from Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. The outbreak is still continuing. National Institute of Communicable Diseases has conducted epidemiological, entomological and laboratory investigations for confirmation of the outbreak. These have been discussed in detail along with the major challenges that the country faced during the current outbreak.

Inflammation of the external ear in acute chikungunya infection: Experience from the outbreak in Johor Bahru, Malaysia, 2008.

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Javelle, Emilie; Tiong, Tee Hua; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Savini, Hélène; Simon, Fabrice

2014-04-01

The re-emerging invalidating chikungunya disease has recently extended to temperate areas. Other alphaviruses can also present with febrile arthalgias. Dengue virus transmitted by the same species of mosquitoes may cocirculate, leading to dual infections and concurrent epidemics. Although these diseases share similar clinical features, their prognoses considerably differ. Prominent and prolonged articular disorders are more consistent with chikungunya virus, whereas haemorrhages make the gravity of dengue infection. Specific symptoms are required, especially when diagnostic tests are not available or performable at a large scale. Indeed, early clinical suspicion of a vector-borne disease is crucial to isolate the first cases in the course of an outbreak, and discrimination between arboviruses help to optimal management of patients. No specific chikungunya clinical sign has been yet reported. We highlight here the high prevalence (about 25%) of acute ear redness in infected people during the 2008 chikungunya outbreak in Jahor Bahru in Malaysia. Nine consenting patients are more precisely described. Ear chondritis could be sensitive diagnostic criterion of the acute stage of chikungunya, every physician - even in occidental non endemic areas - should be aware of. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of reemerging chikungunya virus.

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Marion Sourisseau

2007-06-01

Full Text Available An unprecedented epidemic of chikungunya virus (CHIKV infection recently started in countries of the Indian Ocean area, causing an acute and painful syndrome with strong fever, asthenia, skin rash, polyarthritis, and lethal cases of encephalitis. The basis for chikungunya disease and the tropism of CHIKV remain unknown. Here, we describe the replication characteristics of recent clinical CHIKV strains. Human epithelial and endothelial cells, primary fibroblasts and, to a lesser extent, monocyte-derived macrophages, were susceptible to infection and allowed viral production. In contrast, CHIKV did not replicate in lymphoid and monocytoid cell lines, primary lymphocytes and monocytes, or monocyte-derived dendritic cells. CHIKV replication was cytopathic and associated with an induction of apoptosis in infected cells. Chloroquine, bafilomycin-A1, and short hairpin RNAs against dynamin-2 inhibited viral production, indicating that viral entry occurs through pH-dependent endocytosis. CHIKV was highly sensitive to the antiviral activity of type I and II interferons. These results provide a general insight into the interaction between CHIKV and its mammalian host.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samat, N. A.; Ma' arof, S. H. Mohd Imam [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjung Malim, Perak (Malaysia)

2014-12-04

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-12-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Economics of vector-borne diseases prevention: The case of the Tiger Mosquito control and Chikungunya and Dengue prevention plan in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy)

OpenAIRE

Rivas Morales, Stefano

2016-01-01

Aedes albopictus is considered one of the most invasive mosquito species in the world. It has proved capacity for local transmission of Chikungunya and Dengue within Europe. This research evaluated public costs related to the implementation of the plan for Ae. albopictus control and Chikungunya and Dengue prevention set up in Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy), where a Chikungunya epidemic outbreak occurred in 2007, with 217 confirmed cases. The management plan started in 2008 by involvin...

Chikungunya virus-like particle vaccine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Metz, S.W.H.

2013-01-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthropod-borne alphavirus (family Togaviridae) and is the causative agent of chikungunya fever. This disease is characterised by the sudden onset of high fever and long-lasting arthritic disease. First identified in Tanzania in 1952,

Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

Science.gov (United States)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2015-05-01

Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

Chikungunya

Science.gov (United States)

... Small Bites, Big Threats Vectors: Integrated Management and Public Health Entomology Chikungunya Number of reported cases: December 22, ... mosquito-borne diseases during outbreaks 2017-05-18 Brazil’s Health Minister Outlines Health Challenges in PAHO Visit 2017- ...

Globalization of Chikungunya Virus: Threat to the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

In August, 2004, Kenyan health authorities and partners identified chikungunya virus as the cause of the febrile epidemic in a coastal island city. The virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in tropical Africa and Asia; the fever is rarely fatal but can incapacitate for weeks. Control was delayed,...

Nonhuman Primate Models of Chikungunya Virus Infection and Disease (CHIKV NHP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Broeckel

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a positive-sense RNA virus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. CHIKV is a reemerging Alphavirus that causes acute febrile illness and severe and debilitating polyarthralgia of the peripheral joints. Huge epidemics and the rapid spread of CHIKV seen in India and the Indian Ocean region established CHIKV as a global health concern. This concern was further solidified by the recent incursion of the virus into the Western hemisphere, a region without pre-existing immunity. Nonhuman primates (NHPs serve as excellent animal models for understanding CHIKV pathogenesis and pre-clinical assessment of vaccines and therapeutics. NHPs present advantages over rodent models because they are a natural amplification host for CHIKV and they share significant genetic and physiological homology with humans. CHIKV infection in NHPs results in acute fever, rash, viremia and production of type I interferon. NHPs develop CHIKV-specific B and T-cells, generating neutralizing antibodies and CHIKV-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells. CHIKV establishes a persistent infection in NHPs, particularly in cynomolgus macaques, because infectious virus could be recovered from spleen, liver, and muscle as late as 44 days post infection. NHPs are valuable models that are useful in preclinical testing of vaccines and therapeutics and uncovering the details of CHIKV pathogenesis.

Chikungunya Virus Vaccines: Viral Vector-Based Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsauer, Katrin; Tangy, Frédéric

2016-12-15

In 2013, a major chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic reached the Americas. In the past 2 years, >1.7 million people have been infected. In light of the current epidemic, with millions of people in North and South America at risk, efforts to rapidly develop effective vaccines have increased. Here, we focus on CHIKV vaccines that use viral-vector technologies. This group of vaccine candidates shares an ability to potently induce humoral and cellular immune responses by use of highly attenuated and safe vaccine backbones. So far, well-described vectors such as modified vaccinia virus Ankara, complex adenovirus, vesicular stomatitis virus, alphavirus-based chimeras, and measles vaccine Schwarz strain (MV/Schw) have been described as potential vaccines. We summarize here the recent data on these experimental vaccines, with a focus on the preclinical and clinical activities on the MV/Schw-based candidate, which is the first CHIKV-vectored vaccine that has completed a clinical trial. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Emergence of chikungunya in Moonlapamok and Khong Districts, Champassak Province, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, May to September 2012

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Viengsavanh Kitthiphong

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Chikungunya is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, which are widespread in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. However, chikungunya virus (CHIKV had not been detected in the country before outbreaks reported in July 2012. The first outbreaks were detected through health care worker event-based surveillance. Methods: The case definition for the outbreaks was defined as a person with acute onset of fever (> 38 °C and severe arthralgia (joint pain or arthritis from 1 May 2012 in Champassak Province. Rapid response teams conducted active case finding, performed an environmental assessment including an entomological survey and implemented control measures. Descriptive analysis was undertaken in Microsoft Excel. Results: There were 197 cases (attack rate 3.4% of suspected chikungunya reported from 10 villages in Moonlapamok and Khong Districts of Champassak Province. All age groups (age range: seven months–74 years were affected with slightly more female (56% than male cases. Thirty-one per cent (16 of 52 of serum samples tested positive for CHIKV by polymerase chain reaction. The environmental assessment found poor water storage practices and high entomological indices. Discussion: These outbreaks show the effectiveness of health care worker event-based surveillance and the importance of sharing of information across borders for detecting emerging diseases. Public health education is an important measure to prevent epidemics of chikungunya. Information about chikungunya should be supplied to health care workers in the region so they are alert to the potential spread and are able to implement control measures for this disease.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

2018-05-01

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John H Huber

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (reemerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation. Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting

An app for climate-based Chikungunya risk monitoring and mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Soebiyanto, R. P.; Rama, X.; Jepsen, R.; Bijoria, S.; Linthicum, K. J.; Anyamba, A.

2017-12-01

There is an increasing concern for reemergence and spread of chikungunya in the last 10 years in Africa, the Indian Ocean, and Asia, and range expansion that now reaches the Caribbean, South America and threatens North America. The outbreak of Chikungunya in 2013 and its spread throughout the Americas has so far resulted in more than 1.7 million suspected cases. This has demonstrated the importance of readiness in assessing potential risk of the emergence of vector-borne diseases. Climate and ecological conditions are now recognized as major contributors to the emergence and re-emergence of various vector-borne diseases including Chikungunya. Variations and persistence of extreme climate conditions provide suitable environment for the increase of certain disease vector populations, which then further amplify vector-borne disease transmission. This highlights the importance of climate anomaly information in assessing regions at risk for Chikungunya. In order to address such issue, we are developing a climate-based app, CHIKRISK, which will help decision makers to answer three critical questions: (i) Where has Chikungunya activity occurred; (ii) Where it is occurring now; (iii) Which regions are currently at risk for Chikungunya. We first develop a database of historical Chikungunya outbreak locations compiled from publicly available information. These records are used to map where Chikungunya activity has occurred over time. We leverage on various satellite-based climate data records - such as rainfall, land surface and near surface temperature to characterize evolving conditions prior to and during Chikungunya activity. Chikungunya outbreak data, climate and ancillary (i.e. population and elevation) data are used to develop analytics capability that will produce risk maps. The CHIKRISK app has the capability to visualize historical Chikungunya activity locations, climate anomaly conditions and Chikungunya risk maps. Currently, the focus of the development is on the

Chikungunya virus outbreak in Kerala, India, 2007: a seroprevalence study

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Narendran Pradeep Kumar

2011-12-01

Full Text Available India was affected by a major outbreak of chikungunya fever caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV during 2006-2007. Kerala was the worst affected state during 2007 with a contribution of 55.8% suspected cases in the country. However, except for clinically reported case records, no systematic information is available on infection status of CHIKV in the region. Hence, we carried out a post-epidemic survey to estimate seroprevalence status [immunoglobulin G (IgG] in the community using commercially available indirect immunofluorescence test. This methodology had been reported to be highly specific and sensitive for CHIKV infection. The study area selected was the worst affected mid-highlands region of Kerala which harbour vast area of rubber plantations. The study evidenced 68% of the population to be seropositive for CHIKV IgG. Males were found more affected than females (χ2 = 9.86; p = 0.002. Among males, prevalence was significantly higher in the age classes 21-30 (χ2 = 5.46; p = 0.019 and 31-40 (χ2 = 5.84; p = 0.016 years. This may be due to high occupational risk of the male population engaged in plantation activities exposed to infective bites of Aedes albopictus. The current study provides an insight into the magnitude of CHIKV outbreak in Kerala.

Activity of andrographolide against chikungunya virus infection

OpenAIRE

Phitchayapak Wintachai; Parveen Kaur; Regina Ching Hua Lee; Suwipa Ramphan; Atichat Kuadkitkan; Nitwara Wikan; Sukathida Ubol; Sittiruk Roytrakul; Justin Jang Hann Chu; Duncan R. Smith

2015-01-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus that has recently engendered large epidemics around the world. There is no specific antiviral for treatment of patients infected with CHIKV, and development of compounds with significant anti-CHIKV activity that can be further developed to a practical therapy is urgently required. Andrographolide is derived from Andrographis paniculata, a herb traditionally used to treat a number of conditions including infections. This stud...

[Dengue, zika, chikungunya and the development of vaccines].

Science.gov (United States)

Kantor, Isabel N

2018-01-01

Dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), three arbovirosis transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, have spread in recent decades in humid tropical and subtropical zones. Dengue is epidemic in subtropical areas of Argentina. DENV infection confers lasting immunity against the infecting serotype but increases the risk of serious disease upon reinfection by any of the other three. The recombinant tetravalent vaccine Dengvaxia® prevents severe dengue and hospitalization in seropositive subjects. In 2017, Dengvaxia was approved in Argentina, for ages 9 to 45, but is not included in the national vaccination calendar. Two other vaccines are in Phase III evaluation: one developed by NIAID / Instituto Butantan and the other by Takeda. ZIKV, a virus associated with microcephaly in newborns in Brazil, circulates since 2016 in Argentina. There is still not effective treatment nor vaccine with proven activity against ZIKV. There has been no active circulation of CHIKV in Argentina in 2017. Outbreaks of CHIKV fever have a complication: the development of chronic post-disease rheumatism. There are not approved vaccines for humans nor effective antiviral therapies. The seriousness of these virosis has contributed to a rapid progress in the knowledge of the infection processes and the immune response. For now, Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus vectors continue to expand, suggesting that the vaccine will be the most effective means of controlling these viruses. Here we summarize information about these arbovirosis in Argentina and Brazil and describe advances in the development and evaluation of vaccines.

Dengue, zika, chikungunya and the development of vaccines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel N. Kantor

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Dengue (DENV, zika (ZIKV and chikungunya (CHIKV, three arbovirosis transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, have spread in recent decades in humid tropical and subtropical zones. Dengue is epidemic in subtropical areas of Argentina. DENV infection confers lasting immunity against the infecting serotype but increases the risk of serious disease upon reinfection by any of the other three. The recombinant tetravalent vaccine Dengvaxia® prevents severe dengue and hospitalization in seropositive subjects. In 2017, Dengvaxia was approved in Argentina, for ages 9 to 45, but is not included in the national vaccination calendar. Two other vaccines are in Phase III evaluation: one developed by NIAID / Instituto Butantan and the other by Takeda. ZIKV, a virus associated with microcephaly in newborns in Brazil, circulates since 2016 in Argentina. There is still not effective treatment nor vaccine with proven activity against ZIKV. There has been no active circulation of CHIKV in Argentina in 2017. Outbreaks of CHIKV fever have a complication: the development of chronic post-disease rheumatism. There are not approved vaccines for humans nor effective antiviral therapies. The seriousness of these virosis has contributed to a rapid progress in the knowledge of the infection processes and the immune response. For now, Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus vectors continue to expand, suggesting that the vaccine will be the most effective means of controlling these viruses. Here we summarize information about these arbovirosis in Argentina and Brazil and describe advances in the development and evaluation of vaccines.

Chikungunya virus

Science.gov (United States)

Chikungunya virus infection; Chikungunya ... Where Chikungunya is Found Before 2013, the virus was found in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Indian and Pacific oceans. In late 2013, outbreaks occurred for the first time in the ...

Chikungunya virus–induced autophagy delays caspase-dependent cell death

Science.gov (United States)

Joubert, Pierre-Emmanuel; Werneke, Scott W.; de la Calle, Claire; Guivel-Benhassine, Florence; Giodini, Alessandra; Peduto, Lucie; Levine, Beth; Schwartz, Olivier; Lenschow, Deborah J.

2012-01-01

Autophagy is an important survival pathway and can participate in the host response to infection. Studying Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), the causative agent of a major epidemic in India, Southeast Asia, and southern Europe, we reveal a novel mechanism by which autophagy limits cell death and mortality after infection. We use biochemical studies and single cell multispectral assays to demonstrate that direct infection triggers both apoptosis and autophagy. CHIKV-induced autophagy is mediated by the independent induction of endoplasmic reticulum and oxidative stress pathways. These cellular responses delay apoptotic cell death by inducing the IRE1α–XBP-1 pathway in conjunction with ROS-mediated mTOR inhibition. Silencing of autophagy genes resulted in enhanced intrinsic and extrinsic apoptosis, favoring viral propagation in cultured cells. Providing in vivo evidence for the relevance of our findings, Atg16LHM mice, which display reduced levels of autophagy, exhibited increased lethality and showed a higher sensitivity to CHIKV-induced apoptosis. Based on kinetic studies and the observation that features of apoptosis and autophagy were mutually exclusive, we conclude that autophagy inhibits caspase-dependent cell death but is ultimately overwhelmed by viral replication. Our study suggests that inducers of autophagy may limit the pathogenesis of acute Chikungunya disease. PMID:22508836

Cardiovascular involvement and manifestations of systemic Chikungunya virus infection: A systematic review [version 1; referees: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations

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María Fernanda Alvarez

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: In the last three years, chikungunya virus disease has been spreading, affecting particularly the Americas, producing more than two million cases. In this setting, not only new disease-related epidemiological patterns have been found, but also new clinical findings have been reported by different research groups. These include findings on the cardiovascular system, including clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic alterations. Methods: We performed a systematic review looking for reports about cardiovascular compromise during chikungunya disease. Cardiac compromise is not so common in isolated episodes; but countries where chikungunya virus is an epidemic should be well informed about this condition. We used 6 bibliographical databases as resources: Medline/Pubmed, Embase, ScienceDirect, ClinicalKey, Ovid and SciELO. Dengue reports on cardiovascular affectation were included as well, to compare both arbovirus’ organic affectations. Articles that delved mainly into the rheumatic articular and cutaneous complications were not considered, as they were not in line with the purpose of this study. The type of articles included were reviews, meta-analyses, case-controls, cohort studies, case reports and case series. Results: Originally based on 737 articles, our reviewed selected 40 articles with 54.2% at least mentioning CHIKV cardiovascular compromise within the systemic affectation. Cardiovascular manifestations can be considered common and have been reported in France, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Colombia, Venezuela and USA, including mainly, but no limited to: hypotension, shock and circulatory collapse, Raynaud phenomenon, arrhythmias, murmurs, myocarditis, dilated cardiomyopathy, congestive insufficiency, heart failure and altered function profile (Troponins, CPK. Conclusions: Physicians should be encouraged to keep divulgating reports on the cardiovascular involvement of chikungunya virus disease, to raise awareness

Entomologic investigations of a chikungunya virus epidemic in the Union of the Comoros, 2005.

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Sang, Rosemary C; Ahmed, Ouledi; Faye, Ousmane; Kelly, Cindy L H; Yahaya, Ali Ahmed; Mmadi, Ibrahim; Toilibou, Ali; Sergon, Kibet; Brown, Jennifer; Agata, Naftali; Yakouide, Allarangar; Ball, Mamadou D; Breiman, Robert F; Miller, Barry R; Powers, Ann M

2008-01-01

From January to April 2005, an epidemic of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) illness occurred in the Union of Comoros. Entomological studies were undertaken during the peak of the outbreak, from March 11 to March 31, aimed at identifying the primary vector(s) involved in transmission so that appropriate public health measures could be implemented. Adult mosquitoes were collected by backpack aspiration and human landing collection in homes and neighborhoods of clinically ill patients. Water-holding containers were inspected for presence of mosquito larvae. Adult mosquitoes were analyzed by RT-PCR and cultivation in cells for the presence of CHIK virus and/or nucleic acid. A total of 2,326 mosquitoes were collected and processed in 199 pools. The collection consisted of 62.8% Aedes aegypti, 25.5% Culex species, and 10.7% Aedes simpsoni complex, Eretmapodites spp and Anopheles spp. Seven mosquito pools were found to be positive for CHIKV RNA and 1 isolate was obtained. The single CHIKV mosquito isolate was from a pool of Aedes aegypti and the minimum infection rate (MIR) for this species was 4.0, suggesting that Ae. aegypti was the principal vector responsible for the outbreak. This was supported by high container (31.1%), household (68%), and Breteau (126) indices, with discarded tires (58.8%) and small cooking and water storage vessels (31.1%) registering the highest container indices.

Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

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Carlos Polanco

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010 taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

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Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

2013-01-01

A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

FAKTOR RISIKO KEJADIAN CHIKUNGUNYA DI KABUPATEN BOYOLALI,PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH

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Lulus Susanti

2014-05-01

Full Text Available AbstractChikungunya fever is one of re-emerging diseases in Indonesia. The most prominent symptoms in chikungunya patients are severe pain in joints, especially in the knee, ankles, arms and hands joints , as well as joints of the spine so that the joints very difficult to be moved. The disease is caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV group.Cases of Chiku-ngunya in Central Java were increased, starting in 2005 which totaled only 46 cases, then became 86 cases in 2006, and increased sharply to reach 2,801 cases in 2007. The cases were distributed in several districts in Central Java including Boyolali, which contributes to considerable number of Chikungunya cases. In 2007 and 2008 the number of Chikungunyacases in Boyolali reached 634 and 517 respectively. In this study a survey was conducted to establish the relationship between community characteristics, socio-economic conditions, knowledge, attitudes and behaviour of the people,entomological and environmental survey as risk factors of Chikungunya in Boyolali. This study was an analytical epidemiologic study with case control study design. Results showed that cases of Chikungunya was majority in the age range of 20-45 and 46-64 years, 51 (39.23% and 50 cases (38.46% respectively, among them,80 females (61.54%. The most of the Chikungunya cases ; 34 (26.15%were not completed primary school and farmers, the main occupation of the people, were 41 cases (31.54%. Based on all of characteristic of the respondents, only gender that have significant relationshipswith the Chikungunya case (with P< 0.05. The characteristics of age, education, and occupation have no significant relationships with the case (P> 0.05. Knowledge and practices of the people on the prevention towards Chikungunya transmissions has no significant relationships to the case(with P > 0.05. Hanged cloth was also has no relationships with the case, but the existing of Aedes sp larvae shown significant relationships to the case (with P

A Model for a Chikungunya Outbreak in a Rural Cambodian Setting: Implications for Disease Control in Uninfected Areas

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Duong, Veasna; Ly, Sowath; Ngan, Chantha; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-01-01

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction. PMID:25210729

A model for a chikungunya outbreak in a rural Cambodian setting: implications for disease control in uninfected areas.

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Marguerite Robinson

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]. We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction.

[Description of the process of preparation and response of local health authorities facing the introduction of the Chikungunya virus in Colombia, 2014].

Science.gov (United States)

Alarcón-Cruz, Ángela P; Prieto-Suárez, Edgar

2016-06-01

Objective To describe the process of preparation and response of local health authorities in key public health issues while facing the introduction stage of an unusual virus: Chikungunya in Colombia in 2014. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted using a survey that was developed for this study and sent to Public Health coordinators and to the person in charge of vector borne-diseases in the country's territorial entities. Results 23 out of the 35 territories at risk from the transmission of Chikungunya agreed to answer the survey. A global review of the survey scores for each evaluated section shows better performances in the areas of knowledge management, comprehensive patient care, epidemiological intelligence, and health promotion. According to the results of this study, the epidemiological surveillance system during the Chikungunya epidemic had a low acceptability and flexibility, possibly contributing to the underreporting of cases. Conclusions In general, knowledge and implementation by local authorities of the Integrated Health Strategy- EGI (Estrategia de Gestión Integral, by its Spanish acronym)- for vector-borne diseases was evident from the themes evaluated in this study. However, it is necessary to reinforce the communication of risks, laboratory, and outbreak and contingencies management areas faced during the introduction of new viruses.

[Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

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Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

2013-01-01

Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

Functional processing and secretion of Chikungunya virus E1 and E2 glycoproteins in insect cells

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.W. Metz (Stefan); C. Geertsema (Corinne); B.E.E. Martina (Byron); P. Andrade (Paulina); J.G.M. Heldens; M.M. van Oers (Monique); J.M. Vlak (Just); G.P. Pijlman (Gorben)

2011-01-01

textabstractBackground: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne, arthrogenic Alphavirus that causes large epidemics in Africa, South-East Asia and India. Recently, CHIKV has been transmitted to humans in Southern Europe by invading and now established Asian tiger mosquitoes. To study the

Effective chikungunya virus-like particle vaccine produced in insect cells.

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Stefan W Metz

Full Text Available The emerging arthritogenic, mosquito-borne chikungunya virus (CHIKV causes severe disease in humans and represents a serious public health threat in countries where Aedes spp mosquitoes are present. This study describes for the first time the successful production of CHIKV virus-like particles (VLPs in insect cells using recombinant baculoviruses. This well-established expression system is rapidly scalable to volumes required for epidemic responses and proved well suited for processing of CHIKV glycoproteins and production of enveloped VLPs. Herein we show that a single immunization with 1 µg of non-adjuvanted CHIKV VLPs induced high titer neutralizing antibody responses and provided complete protection against viraemia and joint inflammation upon challenge with the Réunion Island CHIKV strain in an adult wild-type mouse model of CHIKV disease. CHIKV VLPs produced in insect cells using recombinant baculoviruses thus represents as a new, safe, non-replicating and effective vaccine candidate against CHIKV infections.

Chikungunya virus infection in Aruba: Diagnosis, clinical features and predictors of post-chikungunya chronic polyarthralgia.

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Ralph Huits

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV emerged in Aruba for the first time in 2014. We studied the clinical presentation of acute CHIKV infection and the contribution of serologic and molecular assays to its diagnosis. In a cohort of confirmed CHIKV cases, we analysed the frequency, duration and predictors of post-chikungunya chronic polyarthralgia (pCHIK-CPA, defined as joint pains lasting longer than 6 weeks or longer than 1 year.Patient sera obtained within 10 days of symptom onset were tested for CHIKV, using an indirect immunofluorescence test for the detection of CHIKV-specific Immunoglobulin M (IgM and post-hoc, by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. CHIKV was isolated from selected samples and genotyped. For confirmed CHIKV cases, clinical data from chart review were complemented by a Telephone survey, conducted 18-24 months after diagnosis. When joint pain was reported, the duration, presence of inflammatory signs, type and number of joints affected, were recorded. Joint involvement was scored according to the 2010 'American College of Rheumatology/ European League Against Rheumatism' criteria for seronegative rheumatoid arthritis (ACR-score. Risk factors for pCHIK-CPA were identified by logistic regression.Acute CHIKV infection was diagnosed in 269 of 498 sera, by detection of IgM (n = 105, by RT-PCR (n = 59, or by both methods (n = 105. Asian genotype was confirmed in 7 samples. Clinical data were complete for 171 of 248 (69.0% patients, aged 15 years or older (median 49.4 [35.0-59.6]. The female-to-male ratio was 2.2. The main acute symptoms were arthralgia (94%, fever (85%, myalgia (85%, headache (73% and rash (63%. In patients with arthralgia (n = 160, pCHIK-CPA longer than 6 weeks was reported by 44% and longer than 1 year by 26% of cases. Inflammatory signs, stiffness, edema and redness were frequent (71%, 39% and 21%, respectively. Joints involved were knees (66%, ankles (50%, fingers (52%, feet (46%, shoulders (36

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

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Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Functional processing and secretion of Chikungunya virus E1 and E2 glycoproteins in insect cells

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Metz, S.W.H.; Geertsema, C.; Martina, Byron E.; Andrade, Paulina; Heldens, J.; Oers, van M.M.; Goldbach, R.W.; Vlak, J.M.; Pijlman, G.P.

2011-01-01

Background - Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne, arthrogenic Alphavirus that causes large epidemics in Africa, South-East Asia and India. Recently, CHIKV has been transmitted to humans in Southern Europe by invading and now established Asian tiger mosquitoes. To study the processing of

Letter to the Editor: Chikungunya Virus Infection—An Update on Chronic Rheumatism in Latin America

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Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To the Editor, The article of Krutikov and Manson1 was interesting. However, no comment was made on the impact and related clinical epidemiology of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV infection during the 2014–2015 epidemics in Latin America, the most recent area affected by CHIKV. ...

Failure to demonstrate experimental vertical transmission of the epidemic strain of Chikungunya virus in Aedes albopictus from La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

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Marie Vazeille

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Aedes albopictus was responsible for transmission in the first outbreak of chikungunya (CHIK on La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, in 2005-2006. The magnitude of the outbreak on this island, which had been free of arboviral diseases for over 30 years, as well as the efficiency of Ae. albopictus as the main vector, raises questions about the maintenance of the CHIK virus (CHIKV through vertical transmission mechanisms. Few specimens collected from the field as larvae were found to be infected. In this study, Ae. albopictus originating from La Réunion were orally infected with a blood-meal containing 10(8 pfu/mL of the CHIKV epidemic strain (CHIKV 06.21. Eggs from the first and second gonotrophic cycles were collected and raised to the adult stage. The infectious status of the progeny was checked (i by immunofluorescence on head squashes of individual mosquitoes to detect the presence of viral particles or (ii by quantitative RT-PCR on mosquito pools to detect viral RNA. We analysed a total of 1,675 specimens from the first gonotrophic cycle and 1,709 from the second gonotrophic cycle without detecting any viral particles or viral RNA. These laboratory results are compared to field records.

Presence of Autoimmune Antibody in Chikungunya Infection

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Wirach Maek-a-nantawat

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya infection has recently re-emerged as an important arthropod-borne disease in Thailand. Recently, Southern Thailand was identified as a potentially endemic area for the chikungunya virus. Here, we report a case of severe musculoskeletal complication, presenting with muscle weakness and swelling of the limbs. During the investigation to exclude autoimmune muscular inflammation, high titers of antinuclear antibody were detected. This is the report of autoimmunity detection associated with an arbovirus infection. The symptoms can mimic autoimmune polymyositis disease, and the condition requires close monitoring before deciding to embark upon prolonged specific treatment with immunomodulators.

Entomologic and virologic investigation of Chikungunya, Singapore.

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Ng, Lee-Ching; Tan, Li-Kiang; Tan, Cheong-Huat; Tan, Sharon S Y; Hapuarachchi, Hapuarachchige C; Pok, Kwoon-Yong; Lai, Yee-Ling; Lam-Phua, Sai-Gek; Bucht, Göran; Lin, Raymond T P; Leo, Yee-Sin; Tan, Boon-Hian; Han, Hwi-Kwang; Ooi, Peng-Lim S; James, Lyn; Khoo, Seow-Poh

2009-08-01

Local transmission of chikungunya, a debilitating mosquito-borne viral disease, was first reported in Singapore in January 2008. After 3 months of absence, locally acquired Chikungunya cases resurfaced in May 2008, causing an outbreak that resulted in a total of 231 cases by September 2008. The circulating viruses were related to East, Central, and South African genotypes that emerged in the Indian Ocean region in 2005. The first local outbreak was due to a wild-type virus (alanine at codon 226 of the envelope 1 gene) and occurred in an area where Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were the primary vector. Strains isolated during subsequent outbreaks showed alanine to valine substitution (A226V) and largely spread in areas predominated by Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. These findings led to a revision of the current vector control strategy in Singapore. This report highlights the use of entomologic and virologic data to assist in the control of chikungunya in disease-endemic areas.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

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Ángel G. Muñoz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Serum metabolomics analysis of patients with chikungunya and dengue mono/co-infections reveals distinct metabolite signatures in the three disease conditions

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Shrinet, Jatin; Shastri, Jayanthi S.; Gaind, Rajni; Bhavesh, Neel Sarovar; Sunil, Sujatha

2016-11-01

Chikungunya and dengue are arboviral infections with overlapping clinical symptoms. A subset of chikungunya infection occurs also as co-infections with dengue, resulting in complications during diagnosis and patient management. The present study was undertaken to identify the global metabolome of patient sera infected with chikungunya as mono infections and with dengue as co-infections. Using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, the metabolome of sera of three disease conditions, namely, chikungunya and dengue as mono-infections and when co-infected were ascertained and compared with healthy individuals. Further, the cohorts were analyzed on the basis of age, onset of fever and joint involvement. Here we show that many metabolites in the serum are significantly differentially regulated during chikungunya mono-infection as well as during chikungunya co-infection with dengue. We observed that glycine, serine, threonine, galactose and pyrimidine metabolisms are the most perturbed pathways in both mono and co-infection conditions. The affected pathways in our study correlate well with the clinical manifestation like fever, inflammation, energy deprivation and joint pain during the infections. These results may serve as a starting point for validations and identification of distinct biomolecules that could be exploited as biomarker candidates thereby helping in better patient management.

Neurological manifestations of Chikungunya and Zika infections

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Talys J. Pinheiro

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The epidemics of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV and Zika virus (ZIKV infections have been considered the most important epidemiological occurrences in the Americas. The clinical picture of CHIKV infection is characterized by high fever, exanthema, myalgia, headaches, and arthralgia. Besides the typical clinical picture of CHIKV, atypical manifestations of neurological complications have been reported: meningo-encephalitis, meningoencephalo-myeloradiculitis, myeloradiculitis, myelitis, myeloneuropathy, Guillain-Barré syndrome and others. The diagnosis is based on clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory criteria. The most common symptoms of ZIKV infection are skin rash (mostly maculopapular, fever, arthralgia, myalgia, headache, and conjunctivitis. Some epidemics that have recently occurred in French Polynesia and Brazil, reported the most severe conditions, with involvement of the nervous system (Guillain-Barré syndrome, transverse myelitis, microcephaly and meningitis. The treatment for ZIKV and CHIKV infections are symptomatic and the management for neurological complications depends on the type of affliction. Intravenous immunoglobulin, plasmapheresis, and corticosteroid pulse therapy are options.

Zika virus displacement by a chikungunya outbreak in Recife, Brazil.

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Magalhaes, Tereza; Braga, Cynthia; Cordeiro, Marli T; Oliveira, Andre L S; Castanha, Priscila M S; Maciel, Ana Paula R; Amancio, Nathalia M L; Gouveia, Pollyanne N; Peixoto-da-Silva, Valter J; Peixoto, Thaciana F L; Britto, Helena; Lima, Priscilla V; Lima, Andreza R S; Rosenberger, Kerstin D; Jaenisch, Thomas; Marques, Ernesto T A

2017-11-01

Several arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, circulate in northeast Brazil. Diseases caused by these viruses are of great public health relevance, however, their epidemiological features in areas where the three viruses co-circulate are scarce. Here, we present analyses of molecular and serological diagnostics in a prospective study of acute febrile patients recruited from May 2015 to May 2016 in Recife, Brazil. Two hundred sixty-three acute febrile patients with symptoms suggestive of an arboviral disease who attended an urgent heath care clinic in the Recife Metropolitan Region in northeast Brazil were enrolled. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected and tested using molecular and serological assays for infection with DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV. Quantitative real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reactions (qRTPCR) performed on acute phase sera detected no patients positive for DENV, but 26 (9.9%) positive for ZIKV and 132 (50.2%) positive for CHIKV. There were a few suspected and only one confirmed dengue case. Specific serological assays for ZIKV and CHIKV confirmed the qRTPCR data. Analyses of DENV IgM and IgG ELISAs in the context of qRTPCR results suggested high levels of cross reactive antibodies in ZIKV-positive samples. Results from neutralization assays highly corroborated those from qRTPCR and ZIKV ELISA, indicating very few positive DENV cases. ZIKV infections were temporally clustered in the first months of the study and started to decrease concomitantly with an increase in CHIKV infections in August 2015. The proportion of CHIKV infections increased significantly in September 2015 and remained high until the end of the study period, with an average of 84.7% of recruited patients being diagnosed from August 2015 to May 2016. ZIKV infections exhibited a female bias and the cases were spread over the study site, while CHIKV cases had a male bias and

Chikungunya VIrUS infection

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A retrospective study of 107 cases of serologically proven chikungunya (CHIK) virus infection was undertaken. All respondents 'had contracted the. 'disease at least 3 years previously; 87,9% had fully .recovered, 3,7% experienced only occasional stiff- ness or mild discomfort, 2,8% had persistent resi- dual joint stiffness but ...

Chikungunya fever. Rheumatic manifestations of an emerging disease in Europe.

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Horcada, M Loreto; Díaz-Calderón, Carlos; Garrido, Laura

2015-01-01

Chikungunya fever is a viral disease caused by an alphavirus belonging to the Togaviridae family, transmitted by several species of Aedes mosquitoes: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (A. albopictus). It is endemic in Africa and Asia with recurrent outbreaks. It is an emerging disease and cases in Europe transmitted by A. albopictus have been established in Mediterranean areas. The first autochthonous cases detected on the Caribbean islands suppose a serious threat of spreading disease to America, which so far has been disease free. Clinical symptoms begin abruptly with fever, skin rash and polyarthritis. Although mortality is low, a high percentage of patients develop a chronic phase defined by persistent arthritis for months or even years. A severe immune response is responsible for joint inflammation. The absence of specific treatment and lack of vaccine requires detailed studies about its immunopathogenesis in order to determine the most appropriate target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The medicinal chemistry of Chikungunya virus.

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da Silva-Júnior, Edeildo F; Leoncini, Giovanni O; Rodrigues, Érica E S; Aquino, Thiago M; Araújo-Júnior, João X

2017-08-15

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are an important threat to human and animal health globally. Among these, zoonotic diseases account for billions of cases of human illness and millions of deaths every year, representing an increasing public health problem. Chikungunya virus belongs to the genus Alphavirus of the family Togariridae, and is transmitted mainly by the bite of female mosquitoes of the Aedes aegypti and/or A. albopictus species. The focus of this review will be on the medicinal chemistry of Chikungunya virus, including synthetic and natural products, as well as rationally designed compounds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple clinical and laboratory predictors of Chikungunya versus dengue infections in adults.

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Vernon J Lee

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue and chikungunya are co-circulating vector-borne diseases with substantial overlap in clinical presentations. It is important to differentiate between them during first presentation as their management, especially for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, is different. This study compares their clinical presentation in Singapore adults to derive predictors to assist doctors in diagnostic decision-making. METHODS: We compared 117 patients with chikungunya infection diagnosed with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR with 917 dengue RT-PCR-positive adult patients (including 55 with DHF. We compared dengue fever (DF, DHF, and chikungunya infections by evaluating clinical characteristics of dengue and chikungunya; developing classification tools via multivariate logistic regression models and classification trees of disease etiology using clinical and laboratory factors; and assessing the time course of several clinical variables. FINDINGS: At first presentation to hospital, significantly more chikungunya patients had myalgia or arthralgia, and fewer had a sore throat, cough (for DF, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain, anorexia or tachycardia than DF or DHF patients. From the decision trees, platelets <118 × 10(9/L was the only distinguishing feature for DF versus chikungunya with an overall correct classification of 89%. For DHF versus chikungunya using platelets <100 × 10(9/L and the presence of bleeding, the overall correct classification was 98%. The time course analysis supported platelet count as the key distinguishing variable. INTERPRETATION: There is substantial overlap in clinical presentation between dengue and chikungunya infections, but simple clinical and laboratory variables can predict these infections at presentation for appropriate management.

Historical inability to control Aedes aegypti as a main contributor of fast dispersal of chikungunya outbreaks in Latin America.

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Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Casas-Martínez, Mauricio; Ulloa, Armando; Bond, J Guillermo; Marina, Carlos F; Lopez-Ordóñez, Teresa; Elizondo-Quiroga, Armando; Torres-Monzón, Jorge A; Díaz-González, Esteban E

2015-12-01

The arrival of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in Latin American countries has been expected to trigger epidemics and challenge health systems. Historically considered as dengue-endemic countries, abundant Aedes aegypti populations make this region highly vulnerable to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) circulation. This review describes the current dengue and CHIKF epidemiological situations, as well as the role of uncontrolled Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus vectors in spreading the emerging CHIKV. Comments are included relating to the vector competence of both species and failures of surveillance and vector control measures. Dengue endemicity is a reflection of these abundant and persistent Aedes populations that are now spreading CHIKV in the Americas. This article forms part of a symposium in Antiviral Research on "Chikungunya discovers the New World." Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

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Lyle Fearnley

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

Four emerging arboviral diseases in North America: Jamestown Canyon, Powassan, chikungunya, and Zika virus diseases.

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Pastula, Daniel M; Smith, Daniel E; Beckham, J David; Tyler, Kenneth L

2016-06-01

Arthropod-borne viruses, or arboviruses, are viruses that are transmitted through the bites of mosquitoes, ticks, or sandflies. There are numerous arboviruses throughout the world capable of causing human disease spanning different viral families and genera. Recently, Jamestown Canyon, Powassan, chikungunya, and Zika viruses have emerged as increasingly important arboviruses that can cause human disease in North America. Unfortunately, there are currently no proven disease-modifying therapies for these arboviral diseases, so treatment is largely supportive. Given there are also no commercially available vaccines for these four arboviral infections, prevention is the key. To prevent mosquito or tick bites that might result in one of these arboviral diseases, people should wear long-sleeved shirts and pants while outside if feasible, apply insect repellant when going outdoors, using window screens or air conditioning to keep mosquitoes outside, and perform tick checks after being in wooded or brushy outdoor areas.

Chikungunya Virus–Vector Interactions

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Lark L. Coffey

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever, a severe, debilitating disease that often produces chronic arthralgia. Since 2004, CHIKV has emerged in Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, causing millions of human infections. Central to understanding CHIKV emergence is knowledge of the natural ecology of transmission and vector infection dynamics. This review presents current understanding of CHIKV infection dynamics in mosquito vectors and its relationship to human disease emergence. The following topics are reviewed: CHIKV infection and vector life history traits including transmission cycles, genetic origins, distribution, emergence and spread, dispersal, vector competence, vector immunity and microbial interactions, and co-infection by CHIKV and other arboviruses. The genetics of vector susceptibility and host range changes, population heterogeneity and selection for the fittest viral genomes, dual host cycling and its impact on CHIKV adaptation, viral bottlenecks and intrahost diversity, and adaptive constraints on CHIKV evolution are also discussed. The potential for CHIKV re-emergence and expansion into new areas and prospects for prevention via vector control are also briefly reviewed.

Chikungunya infection in infants

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Maria do Carmo Menezes Bezerra Duarte

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: the infection of chikungunya virus presents clinical manifestations variables, particularly in infants in which may present multiple cutaneous manifestations. Description: a case series study was carried out in an analytical character of 14 infants (>28 days to < 2 years old admitted in a hospital between November 2015 and January 2016 with suspected case of chikungunya, by a specific IgM reactive serology. Patients positive for dengue fever, Zika virus, bacterial infections and other exanthematic diseases were excluded. Fever and cutaneous alterations were the most frequent clinical manifestations in 100% of the cases, followed by irritability (64.3%, vomits and arthralgia/arthritis in 35.7% each. Three children presented alterations in the cerebrospinal fluid compatible to meningitis. Anemia frequency was 85.7%. The median white blood cells count was 7.700/mm3 (2.600 to 20.300/mm3. High levels of aminotransferases were observed in three cases (230 to 450 U/L. Antibiotic therapy was indicated in 64.3% of the cases. Two infants needed opioid derivatives for analgesia while others took acetaminophen and/or dipyrone. Discussion: the study shows evident multi-systemic involvement of chikungunya infection in infants. The treatment is supportive, giving special attention to hydration, analgesia, skin care, and rational use of antibiotic therapy.

Recommendations of the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology for the diagnosis and treatment of chikungunya fever. Part 2 - Treatment

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Claudia Diniz Lopes Marques

Full Text Available Abstract Chikungunya fever has become an important public health problem in countries where epidemics occur because half of the cases progress to chronic, persistent and debilitating arthritis. Literature data on specific therapies at the various phases of arthropathy caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV infection are limited, lacking quality randomized trials assessing the efficacies of different therapies. There are a few studies on the treatment of musculoskeletal manifestations of chikungunya fever, but these studies have important methodological limitations. The data currently available preclude conclusions favorable or contrary to specific therapies, or an adequate comparison between the different drugs used. The objective of this study was to develop recommendations for the treatment of chikungunya fever in Brazil. A literature review was performed via evidence-based selection of articles in the databases Medline, SciELO, PubMed and Embase and conference proceedings abstracts, in addition to expert opinions to support decision-making in defining recommendations. The Delphi method was used to define the degrees of agreement in 2 face-to-face meetings and several online voting rounds. This study is part 2 of the Recommendations of the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology (Sociedade Brasileira de Reumatologia - SBR for the Diagnosis and Treatment of chikungunya fever and specifically addresses treatment.

Homoeopathic Genus Epidemicus ′Bryonia alba′ as a prophylactic during an outbreak of Chikungunya in India: A cluster -randomised, double -blind, placebo- controlled trial

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K R Janardanan Nair

2014-01-01

Conclusion: Bryonia alba 30C as genus epidemicus was better than placebo in decreasing the incidence of chikungunya in Kerala. The efficacy of genus epidemicus needs to be replicated in different epidemic settings.

A Mathematical Model Of Dengue-Chikungunya Co-Infection In A Closed Population

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Aldila, Dipo; Ria Agustin, Maya

2018-03-01

Dengue disease has been a major health problem in many tropical and sub-tropical countries since the early 1900s. On the other hand, according to a 2017 WHO fact sheet, Chikungunya was detected in the first outbreak in 1952 in Tanzania and has continued increasing until now in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Both these diseases are vector-borne diseases which are spread by the same mosquito, i.e. the female Aedes aegypti. According to the WHO report, there is a great possibility that humans and mosquitos might be infected by dengue and chikungunya at the same time. Here in this article, a mathematical model approach will be used to understand the spread of dengue and chikungunya in a closed population. A model is developed as a nine-dimensional deterministic ordinary differential equation. Equilibrium points and their local stability are analyzed analytically and numerically. We find that the basic reproduction number, the endemic indicator, is given by the maximum of three different basic reproduction numbers of a complete system, i.e. basic reproduction numbers for dengue, chikungunya and for co-infection between dengue and chikungunya. We find that the basic reproduction number for the co-infection sub-system dominates other basic reproduction numbers whenever it is larger than one. Some numerical simulations are provided to confirm these analytical results.

Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

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H S Girgia

1980-01-01

Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

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Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-02-10

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

BEHAVIOR AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR ON CHIKUNGUNYA OUTBREAKS AT SALATIGA CITY IN 2012 = FAKTOR RISIKO PERILAKU DAN LINGKUNGAN RUMAH PADA KEJADIAN LUAR BIASA CHIKUNGUNYA DI KOTA SALATIGA TAHUN 2012

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Diana Andriyani Pratamawati

2015-03-01

Full Text Available EnglishABSTRACTOn February 9, 2012 date specified chikungunya outbreak in Salatiga. This study aimed to examine behavioral and environmental risk factors associated with the disease, vector, modes of transmission, treatment seeking, as well as ways to prevent chikungunya on people in the hamlet Sinoman and Rekesan during the chikungunya outbreak in 2012 . This type of research is used case-control study. This study was conducted in January through April of 2012. Interview and observations conducted on 134 respondents. There is no relationship between the incidence of chikungunya respondent behavior and the behavior of the respondent is not proven as a risk factor chikungunya. But  events, there is a relationship between the incidence of chikungunya lighting and home lighting proved to be a risk factor for chikungunya incidence and its risk by 2.8 times. In addition to lighting, there is a relationship between the incidence of chikungunya home humidity, although not statistically proven as a risk factor for chikungunya. There was a significant association between the presence of mosquitoes on the clothes hanging in the incidence of chikungunya, in harmony with it has been shown that the presence of mosquitoes at the clothes hanging heightens the risk by 4.19 times causing events are expected to cultivate back chikungunya. People must have eradication of mosquito breeding activity, do not hang clothes secondhand, using a wire gauze on the vent, and the use of anti-mosquito drugs to avoid contact with the mosquitoborne chikungunya .IndonesiaKejadian luar biasa (KLB penyakit chikungunya di Kota Salatiga pada tanggal 9 Februari 2012 Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji faktor risiko perilaku dan lingkungan rumah, yang berkaitan dengan penyakit, vektor, cara penularan, pencarian pengobatan, serta cara pencegahan chikungunya di Dusun Sinoman dan Rekesan ketika KLB Chikungunya tahun 2012. Rancangan penelitian adalah case control. Penelitian ini

Some Models for Epidemics of Vector-Transmitted Diseases

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Brauer, Fred; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Mubayi, Anuj; Towers, Sherry

2016-01-01

Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito) vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birt...

Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

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Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

2015-11-01

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

Investigation of chikungunya fever outbreak in Laguna, Philippines, 2012

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Julius Erving Ballera

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Background: In July 2012, the Philippines National Epidemiology Center received a report of a suspected chikungunya fever outbreak in San Pablo City, Laguna Province, the first chikungunya cases reported from the city since surveillance started in 2007. We conducted an outbreak investigation to identify risk factors associated with chikungunya. Methods: A case was defined as any resident of Concepcion Village in San Pablo City who had fever of at least two days duration and either joint pains or rash between 23 June and 6 August 2012. Cases were ascertained by conducting house-to-house canvassing and medical records review. An unmatched case-control study was conducted and analysed using a multivariate logistic regression. An environmental investigation was conducted by observing water and sanitation practices, and 100 households were surveyed to determine House and Breteau Indices. Human serum samples were collected for confirmation for chikungunya IgM through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: There were 98 cases identified. Multivariate analysis revealed that having a chikungunya case in the household (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 6.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0–12.9 and disposing of garbage haphazardly (aOR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.4–5.4 were associated with illness. House and Breteau Indices were 27% and 28%, respectively. Fifty-eight of 84 (69% serum samples were positive for chikungunya IgM. Conclusion: It was not surprising that having a chikungunya case in a household was associated with illness in this outbreak. However, haphazard garbage disposal is not an established risk factor for the disease, although this could be linked to increased breeding sites for mosquitoes.

Zika virus displacement by a chikungunya outbreak in Recife, Brazil.

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Tereza Magalhaes

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Several arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV, Zika virus (ZIKV and chikungunya virus (CHIKV, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, circulate in northeast Brazil. Diseases caused by these viruses are of great public health relevance, however, their epidemiological features in areas where the three viruses co-circulate are scarce. Here, we present analyses of molecular and serological diagnostics in a prospective study of acute febrile patients recruited from May 2015 to May 2016 in Recife, Brazil.Two hundred sixty-three acute febrile patients with symptoms suggestive of an arboviral disease who attended an urgent heath care clinic in the Recife Metropolitan Region in northeast Brazil were enrolled. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected and tested using molecular and serological assays for infection with DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV.Quantitative real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reactions (qRTPCR performed on acute phase sera detected no patients positive for DENV, but 26 (9.9% positive for ZIKV and 132 (50.2% positive for CHIKV. There were a few suspected and only one confirmed dengue case. Specific serological assays for ZIKV and CHIKV confirmed the qRTPCR data. Analyses of DENV IgM and IgG ELISAs in the context of qRTPCR results suggested high levels of cross reactive antibodies in ZIKV-positive samples. Results from neutralization assays highly corroborated those from qRTPCR and ZIKV ELISA, indicating very few positive DENV cases. ZIKV infections were temporally clustered in the first months of the study and started to decrease concomitantly with an increase in CHIKV infections in August 2015. The proportion of CHIKV infections increased significantly in September 2015 and remained high until the end of the study period, with an average of 84.7% of recruited patients being diagnosed from August 2015 to May 2016. ZIKV infections exhibited a female bias and the cases were spread over the study site, while CHIKV cases had a

Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.

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Assaf Anyamba

2012-01-01

that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05 with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall.Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever and human (chikungunya populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies.

Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa and Beyond

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Oscar G Gómez-Duarte

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Is there a reason to fear that an Ebola outbreak may strike Latin America? The fear may not be unreasonable taking into account the history of epidemics that have affected the American continent since colonization times in 1492. Old World small pox epidemics spread and killed millions of Native Americans north and south from the equator. Imported West Nile virus infections reported in New York in 1999 dramatically spread East to West of the United States. Most recently, Chikungunya virus arrived to Central America in 2013 and has already infected close to 1 million people in Mexico, Central American countries, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyanas, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

Chikungunya fever in the Emilia Romagna region: what is the public health message?

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Giuseppe La Torre

2009-03-01

Full Text Available

Introduction Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a mosquitoborne alphavirus indigenous to African countries, the Indian Subcontinent, and Southeast Asia, where it causes endemic and epidemic chikungunya (CHIK fever [1]. Chikungunya infection is transmitted by biting mosquitoes belonging to the genus Aedes. Since the identification of the virus in the 1950s [2] in Africa, transmission to humans has been usually associated with bites of A. aegypti mosquitoes. In recent outbreaks occurring in the South-eastern islands of the Indian Ocean, transmission has also been associated with A. albopictus, also known as the “tiger mosquito.” This species is indigenous to Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Indian Ocean, but has recently spread to Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. [3]. Although tropical forests are considered to be their original habitat, A. aegypti and A. albopictus have developed the capacity to exploit artificial environments [4]. Besides the natural habitat consisting of tree holes filled with water and other small natural pools, they are capable of breeding in any artificial habitat with small reservoirs of stagnant water, such as vases, buckets, tires and other containers found around houses in urban and periurban areas.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in participants of foot-and-mouth disease epidemic control in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010.

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Hibi, Juri; Kurosawa, Aiko; Watanabe, Takuto; Kadowaki, Hazumu; Watari, Michiko; Makita, Kohei

2015-08-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010, and 290,000 animals were culled. This paper describes the mental distress of the volunteers who had been dispatched to Miyazaki for disease control two years after the epidemic. It also assesses risk factors for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A participatory appraisal and self-administered questionnaire survey were conducted in 2012 for those who were dispatched to Miyazaki in 2010. The Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) was used as an indicator of PTSD, and univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Of the 875 respondents, 1.3% had higher IES-R scores than the cut-off point (25), which is suggestive of PTSD. Mental stresses during and soon after FMD control and after two years were described. Four risk factors associated with high IES-R scores were found: transporting culled animals (Pstress during FMD control (Pstress at the time of the survey (Pstress two years later. Public services should provide an opportunity for them to consult with mental health specialists. These findings should be used to better prepare workers who deal with infectious diseases of animals, especially when they must be culled. The establishment of a collaborative framework between veterinary and mental health services is recommended.

Domestic and environmental factors of chikungunya-affected families in Thiruvananthapuram (Rural district of Kerala, India

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T S Anish

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The world is experiencing a pandemic of chikungunya which has swept across Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. Kerala the southernmost state of India was affected by the chikungunya epidemic twice, first in 2006 and then in 2007. Kerala has got geography and climate which are highly favorable for the breeding of Aedes albopictus, the suspected vector. Aim: The aim of the study was to highlight the various domestic and environmental factors of the families affected by chikungunya in 2007 in Thiruvananthapuram district (rural of Kerala. Settings and design: This is a cross-sectional survey conducted in Thiruvananthapuram (rural district during November 2007. Materials and Methods : Samples were selected from field area under three Primary Health Centers. These areas represent the three terrains of the district namely the highland, midland, and lowland. The sample size was estimated to be 134 houses from each study area. The field area of health workers was selected as clusters and six subcenters from each primary health center were randomly selected (lot method. Results and Conclusions: The proportion of population affected by chikungunya fever is 39.9% (38.9-40.9%. The investigators observed water holding containers in the peri-domestic area of 95.6% of the houses. According to regression (binary logistic analysis, the area of residence [adjusted odds ratio (OR = 8.01 (6.06-14.60], residing in a non-remote area [adjusted OR=0.25 (0.16-0.38], perceived mosquito menace [adjusted OR=3.07 (2.31-4.64], and containers/tires outside the house [adjusted OR=5.61 (2.74-27.58] were the independent predictors of the occurrence of chikungunya in households.

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

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Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Destructive arthritis in a patient with chikungunya virus infection with persistent specific IgM antibodies

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Receveur Marie-Catherine

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Chikungunya fever is an emerging arboviral disease characterized by an algo-eruptive syndrome, inflammatory polyarthralgias, or tenosynovitis that can last for months to years. Up to now, the pathophysiology of the chronic stage is poorly understood. Case presentation We report the first case of CHIKV infection with chronic associated rheumatism in a patient who developed progressive erosive arthritis with expression of inflammatory mediators and persistence of specific IgM antibodies over 24 months following infection. Conclusions Understanding the specific features of chikungunya virus as well as how the virus interacts with its host are essential for the prevention, treatment or cure of chikungunya disease.

Recommendations of the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology for diagnosis and treatment of Chikungunya fever. Part 1 - Diagnosis and special situations

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Claudia Diniz Lopes Marques

Full Text Available Abstract Chikungunya fever has become a relevant public health problem in countries where epidemics occur. Until 2013, only imported cases occurred in the Americas, but in October of that year, the first cases were reported in Saint Marin island in the Caribbean. The first autochthonous cases were confirmed in Brazil in September 2014; until epidemiological week 37 of 2016, 236,287 probable cases of infection with Chikungunya virus had been registered, 116,523 of which had serological confirmation. Environmental changes caused by humans, disorderly urban growth and an ever-increasing number of international travelers were described as the factors responsible for the emergence of large-scale epidemics. Clinically characterized by fever and joint pain in the acute stage, approximately half of patients progress to the chronic stage (beyond 3 months, which is accompanied by persistent and disabling pain. The aim of the present study was to formulate recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of Chikungunya fever in Brazil. A literature review was performed in the MEDLINE, SciELO and PubMed databases to ground the decisions for recommendations. The degree of concordance among experts was established through the Delphi method, involving 2 in-person meetings and several online voting rounds. In total, 25 recommendations were formulated and divided into 3 thematic groups: (1 clinical, laboratory and imaging diagnosis; (2 special situations; and (3 treatment. The first 2 themes are presented in part 1, and treatment is presented in part 2.

Chikungunya infection presenting as mild encephalitis with a reversible lesion in the splenium: a case report.

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Nagpal, Kadam; Agarwal, Puneet; Kumar, Amit; Reddi, Rajashekhar

2017-06-01

Chikungunya fever is an Aedes mosquito-transmitted infection caused by chikungunya virus, an RNA virus in the family Togaviridae. The disease is characteristically manifested as fever, arthralgia, and/or rash. Various neurological manifestations like meningoencephalitis, myelitis, and myeloneuropathy have been mentioned in various reports. We present a rare case of chikungunya fever presenting with mild encephalitis with a reversible lesion of the splenium (MERS), which showed complete clinical and radiological recovery.

Spread of epidemic disease on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, M. E.

2002-07-01

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

Human keratinocytes restrict chikungunya virus replication at a post-fusion step

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, Eric [Centre d' étude d’agents Pathogènes et Biotechnologies pour la Santé, CPBS CNRS- UMR5236/UM1/UM2, Montpellier (France); Hamel, Rodolphe [Laboratoire Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution, Contrôle, UMR 5290 CNRS/IRD/UM1, Montpellier (France); Neyret, Aymeric [Centre d' étude d’agents Pathogènes et Biotechnologies pour la Santé, CPBS CNRS- UMR5236/UM1/UM2, Montpellier (France); Ekchariyawat, Peeraya [Laboratoire Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution, Contrôle, UMR 5290 CNRS/IRD/UM1, Montpellier (France); Molès, Jean-Pierre [INSERM U1058, UM1, CHU Montpellier (France); Simmons, Graham [Blood Systems Research Institute, San Francisco, CA 94118 (United States); Chazal, Nathalie [Centre d' étude d’agents Pathogènes et Biotechnologies pour la Santé, CPBS CNRS- UMR5236/UM1/UM2, Montpellier (France); Desprès, Philippe [Unité Interactions Moléculaires Flavivirus-Hôtes, Institut Pasteur, Paris (France); and others

2015-02-15

Transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to humans is initiated by puncture of the skin by a blood-feeding Aedes mosquito. Despite the growing knowledge accumulated on CHIKV, the interplay between skin cells and CHIKV following inoculation still remains unclear. In this study we questioned the behavior of human keratinocytes, the predominant cell population in the skin, following viral challenge. We report that CHIKV rapidly elicits an innate immune response in these cells leading to the enhanced transcription of type I/II and type III interferon genes. Concomitantly, we show that despite viral particles internalization into Rab5-positive endosomes and efficient fusion of virus and cell membranes, keratinocytes poorly replicate CHIKV as attested by absence of nonstructural proteins and genomic RNA synthesis. Accordingly, human keratinocytes behave as an antiviral defense against CHIKV infection rather than as a primary targets for initial replication. This picture significantly differs from that reported for Dengue and West Nile mosquito-borne viruses. - Highlights: • Human keratinocytes support endocytosis of CHIKV and fusion of viral membranes. • CHIKV replication is blocked at a post entry step in these cells. • Infection upregulates type-I, –II and –III IFN genes expression. • Keratinocytes behave as immune sentinels against CHIKV.

Human keratinocytes restrict chikungunya virus replication at a post-fusion step

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, Eric; Hamel, Rodolphe; Neyret, Aymeric; Ekchariyawat, Peeraya; Molès, Jean-Pierre; Simmons, Graham; Chazal, Nathalie; Desprès, Philippe

2015-01-01

Transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to humans is initiated by puncture of the skin by a blood-feeding Aedes mosquito. Despite the growing knowledge accumulated on CHIKV, the interplay between skin cells and CHIKV following inoculation still remains unclear. In this study we questioned the behavior of human keratinocytes, the predominant cell population in the skin, following viral challenge. We report that CHIKV rapidly elicits an innate immune response in these cells leading to the enhanced transcription of type I/II and type III interferon genes. Concomitantly, we show that despite viral particles internalization into Rab5-positive endosomes and efficient fusion of virus and cell membranes, keratinocytes poorly replicate CHIKV as attested by absence of nonstructural proteins and genomic RNA synthesis. Accordingly, human keratinocytes behave as an antiviral defense against CHIKV infection rather than as a primary targets for initial replication. This picture significantly differs from that reported for Dengue and West Nile mosquito-borne viruses. - Highlights: • Human keratinocytes support endocytosis of CHIKV and fusion of viral membranes. • CHIKV replication is blocked at a post entry step in these cells. • Infection upregulates type-I, –II and –III IFN genes expression. • Keratinocytes behave as immune sentinels against CHIKV

Comparative evaluation of the diagnostic potential of recombinant envelope proteins and native cell culture purified viral antigens of Chikungunya virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Mohsin; Dhanwani, Rekha; Kumar, Jyoti S; Rao, P V Lakshmana; Parida, Manmohan

2014-07-01

Despite the fact that Chikungunya resurgence is associated with epidemic of unprecedented magnitude, there are challenges in the field of its clinical diagnosis. However, serological tests in an ELISA format provide a rapid tool for the diagnosis of Chikungunya infection. Indeed, ELISAs based on recombinant proteins hold a great promise as these methods are cost effective and are free from the risk of handling biohazardous material. In this study, the performance of recombinant CHIKV antigens was compared in various ELISA formats for the diagnosis of Chikungunya. Two recombinant antigens derived from the envelope proteins of Chikungunya virus were prepared and evaluated by comparing their competence for detecting circulating antibodies in serum samples of patients infected with CHIKV using MAC-ELISA and indirect IgM-ELISA. The efficacy of the recombinant antigens was also compared with the native antigen. The indirect antibody capture IgM microplate ELISA revealed ≥90% concordance with the native antigen in detecting the CHIKV specific IgM antibodies whereas the recombinant antigen based MAC-ELISA showed 100% specificity. The recombinant antigens used in this study were effective and reliable targets for the diagnosis of CHIKV infection and also provide an alternative for native antigen use which is potentially biohazardous. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Xiao-Pu

2007-01-01

Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

That Which Bends Up: A Case Report and Literature Review of Chikungunya Virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Peper, Shana M; Monson, Benjamin J; Van Schooneveld, Trevor; Smith, Christopher J

2016-05-01

We present a case of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in a 39-year-old female who developed an acute febrile illness marked by polyarthralgia and rash after returning from Saint Lucia. This epidemic-prone pathogen is increasingly likely to be encountered by primary care and hospital physicians in the coming months. The virus was first locally transmitted in the Caribbean in December 2013 and has since spread to 44 countries and 47 US states, affecting a suspected 1.2 million people. A mosquito-borne virus, CHIKV causes a severe and symmetric polyarthralgia that can relapse for months to years, creating debilitating illness and profound socioeconomic consequences. Current treatment is limited to supportive measures, which are dependent on nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Research into immunomodulatory agents, antiviral therapies, and vaccines is ongoing. Prevention remains key in slowing the spread of disease. Patient education should focus on personal protective measures, such as insect repellant and remaining indoors, while public health departments should implement strategies to control vector breeding grounds. Given the possibility of relapsing and debilitating disease, general internists should consider CHIKV in the differential diagnosis of a returning traveler with acute onset of fever, polyarthralgia, and rash.

Suppression of chikungunya virus replication and differential innate responses of human peripheral blood mononuclear cells during co-infection with dengue virus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silva, Mariana Ruiz; Briseno, Jose A. Aguilar; Upasani, Vinit; van der Ende-Metselaar, Heidi; Smit, Jolanda M.; Rodenhuis-Zybert, Izabela A.

2017-01-01

Dengue and chikungunya are viral diseases transmitted to humans by infected Aedes spp. mosquitoes. With an estimated 390 million infected people per year dengue virus (DENV) currently causes the most prevalent arboviral disease. During the last decade chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused large

Mapping clusters of chikungunya and dengue transmission in northern Tanzania using disease exposure and vector data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kajeguka, Debora C.; Kaaya, Robert D.; Desrochers, Rachelle

2017-01-01

, and all participants were geo-referenced to the household level using a global positioning system. Potential clusters of individual exposed to dengue and chikungunya virus, as well as clusters of Aedes mosquitoes in the wet and dry seasons were detected using SaTScan. All significant clusters (with p≤0.......05) were mapped using ArcGIS.  Results: A large, widely dispersed cluster of chikungunya exposed individuals was detected spanning Rundugai and parts of Magadini villages (RR = 2.58, p= 0.01), while no significant clustering was observed in the dry season. Spatial clusters of Aedes aegypti were detected...... and Aedes mosquitoes indicate on-going transmission of chikungunya virus in Hai district of northern Tanzania....

Measles epidemic in Brazil in the post-elimination period: Coordinated response and containment strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, Daniele Rocha Queiroz; Franco, Aidée Ramirez; de Sá Roriz, Maria Lúcia Feitosa; Carneiro, Ana Karine Borges; de Oliveira Garcia, Márcio Henrique; de Souza, Fábia Lidiana; Duron Andino, Regina; de Góes Cavalcanti, Luciano Pamplona

2017-03-23

The measles virus circulation was halted in Brazil in 2001 and the country has a routine vaccination coverage against measles, mumps and rubella higher than 95%. In Ceará, the last confirmed case was in 1999. This article describes the strategies adopted and the effectiveness of surveillance and control measures implemented during a measles epidemic in the post-elimination period. The epidemic started in December 2013 and lasted 20 months, reaching 38 cities and 1,052 confirmed cases. The D8 genotype was identified. More than 50,000 samples were tested for measles and 86.4% of the confirmed cases had a laboratory diagnosis. The beginning of an campaign vaccination was delayed in part by the availability of vaccine. The classic control measures were not enough to control the epidemic. The creation of a committee of experts, the agreement signed between managers of the three spheres of government, the conducting of an institutional active search of suspected cases, vaccination door to door at alternative times, the use of micro planning, a broad advertising campaign at local media and technical operative support contributed to containing the epidemic. It is important to recognize the possibility of epidemics at this stage of post-elimination and prepare a sensitive surveillance system for timely response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping clusters of chikungunya and dengue transmission in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Dengue and chikungunya are mosquito-borne viral diseases that are of public health importance throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Seasonal variations in transmission of these viruses have been suggested owing to the ecology of their mosquito vectors. However, little is known about ...

Seroprevalence of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in Guangdong, China, in pre- and post-2010 HFMD epidemic period.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie A16 have caused many outbreaks in the last decade in mainland China, resulting in thousands of fatal cases. Seroepidemiology which provides important information to document population immunity is rare in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross sectional study of Enterovirus 71 (EV71 and Coxsackie A16 (CA16 seroprevalence was carried out in Guangdong, China, pre- and post- the 2010 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD epidemic period. The levels of EV71 and CA16 specific antibodies were evaluated by a microneutralization test and the geometric mean titer (GMT was calculated and compared. Our results indicated frequent infection by EV71 and CA16 in Guangdong before the 2010 epidemic. Only EV71 neutralizing antibody but not CA16 seroprevalence was significantly increased after the 2010 HFMD epidemic. Children less than 3 years old especially those aged 2 years showed the lowest positive rates for EV71 and CA16 NA before epidemic and the most significantly increased EV71 seroprevalence after epidemic. CA16 GMT values declined after the 2010 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate EV71 was the major pathogen of HFMD in Guangdong during the 2010 epidemic. The infection occurs largely in children less than 3 years, who should have first priority to receive an EV71 vaccine.

Assessing the threat of chikungunya virus emergence in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Viennet, Elvina; Knope, Katrina; Faddy, Helen M; Williams, Craig R; Harley, David

2013-06-30

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a major threat to Australia given the distribution of competent vectors, and the large number of travellers returning from endemic regions. We describe current knowledge of CHIKV importations into Australia, and quantify reported viraemic cases, with the aim of facilitating the formulation of public health policy and ensuring maintenance of blood safety. Cases reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) from 2002 to 2012 were analysed by place, month of acquisition, and place of residence. Rates of chikungunya importation were estimated based on reported cases and on the numbers of short-term movements. Between 2002 and 2012, there were 168 cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) imported into Australia. Victoria and New South Wales had the largest number of notifications. The main sources were Indonesia, India and Malaysia. The number of cases increased from 2008 to reach a peak in 2010 (n=64; 40%). Although Indonesia accounted for the majority of CHIKV notifications in Australia, travel from India had the highest CHIKV importation rate (number of imported cases per 100,000 travellers). The Australian population is increasingly at risk from CHIKV. Arrivals from endemic countries have increased concurrently with vector incursions via imported goods, as well as via local movement from the Torres Strait to North Queensland ports. An outbreak of CHIKV could have a significant impact on health, the safety of the blood supply and on tourism. Case and vector surveillance as well as population health responses are crucial for minimising any potential impact of CHIKV establishment in Australia. This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Commonwealth Copyright Administration, Attorney General

Impact of delay on disease outbreak in a spatial epidemic model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xia-Xia; Wang, Jian-Zhong

2015-04-01

One of the central issues in studying epidemic spreading is the mechanism on disease outbreak. In this paper, we investigate the effects of time delay on disease outbreak in spatial epidemics based on a reaction-diffusion model. By mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that when time delay is more than a critical value, the disease outbreaks. The obtained results show that the time delay is an important factor in the spread of the disease, which may provide new insights on disease control.

wMel limits zika and chikungunya virus infection in a Singapore Wolbachia-introgressed Ae. aegypti strain, wMel-Sg.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheong Huat Tan

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Zika (ZIKV and Chikungunya (CHIKV viruses are emerging Aedes-borne viruses that are spreading outside their known geographic range and causing wide-scale epidemics. It has been reported that these viruses can be transmitted efficiently by Ae. aegypti. Recent studies have shown that Ae. aegypti when transinfected with certain Wolbachia strains shows a reduced replication and dissemination of dengue (DENV, Chikungunya (CHIKV, and Yellow Fever (YFV viruses. The aim of this study was to determine whether the wMel strain of Wolbachia introgressed onto a Singapore Ae. aegypti genetic background was able to limit ZIKV and CHIKV infection in the mosquito.Five to seven-day old mosquitoes either infected or uninfected with wMel Wolbachia were orally infected with a Ugandan strain of ZIKV and several outbreak strains of CHIKV. The midgut and salivary glands of each mosquito were sampled at days 6, 9 and 13 days post infectious blood meal to determine midgut infection and salivary glands dissemination rates, respectively. In general, all wild type Ae. aegypti were found to have high ZIKV and CHIKV infections in their midguts and salivary glands, across all sampling days, compared to Wolbachia infected counterparts. Median viral titre for all viruses in Wolbachia infected mosquitoes were significantly lower across all time points when compared to wild type mosquitoes. Most significantly, all but two and one of the wMel infected mosquitoes had no detectable ZIKV and CHIKV, respectively, in their salivary glands at 14 days post-infectious blood meal.Our results showed that wMel limits both ZIKV and CHIKV infection when introgressed into a Singapore Ae. aegypti genetic background. These results also strongly suggest that female Aedes aegypti carrying Wolbachia will have a reduced capacity to transmit ZIKV and CHIKV.

Nowcast Predictions for Chikungunya Virus-Infected Travelers

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Interactive visualization: http://www.cdc.gov/chikungunya/modeling/index.html. This dataset contains monthly predictions for the spread of chikungunya virus...

Keeping the Community Posted: Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Blogs and the Tobacco Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joseph G L

2014-06-01

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people are more likely to use tobacco products than heterosexual people. This results in disproportionate death and disability for LGBT communities. Yet, addressing the tobacco epidemic is generally low on the agenda of LGBT community organizations, and LGBT individuals report lower levels of support for some evidence-based tobacco prevention and control policies than heterosexuals. Informed by agenda-setting theory, this study investigated coverage of the tobacco epidemic in LGBT news blogs. Sixteen blogs and 105 tobacco-related posts from 2003 to March 9, 2013, were identified, and a quantitative content analysis was conducted. Coverage of the tobacco epidemic was primarily concentrated in four blogs and focused on the epidemiology of the epidemic and on tobacco-related policies. Little coverage focused on the tobacco industry, addiction, or health effects. A substantial minority of coverage focused on socially conservative arguments comparing smoking to homosexuality as a lifestyle choice. Thirty-three organizations working on LGBT tobacco prevention and control were present in blog posts. LGBT news blogs have a potentially important and mostly untapped role in tobacco-related media advocacy. LGBT health advocates would do well to cultivate relationships with LGBT bloggers as well as include bloggers in dissemination and media strategy efforts.

Activity of andrographolide against chikungunya virus infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wintachai, Phitchayapak; Kaur, Parveen; Lee, Regina Ching Hua; Ramphan, Suwipa; Kuadkitkan, Atichat; Wikan, Nitwara; Ubol, Sukathida; Roytrakul, Sittiruk; Chu, Justin Jang Hann; Smith, Duncan R

2015-09-18

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus that has recently engendered large epidemics around the world. There is no specific antiviral for treatment of patients infected with CHIKV, and development of compounds with significant anti-CHIKV activity that can be further developed to a practical therapy is urgently required. Andrographolide is derived from Andrographis paniculata, a herb traditionally used to treat a number of conditions including infections. This study sought to determine the potential of andrographolide as an inhibitor of CHIKV infection. Andrographolide showed good inhibition of CHIKV infection and reduced virus production by approximately 3log10 with a 50% effective concentration (EC50) of 77 μM without cytotoxicity. Time-of-addition and RNA transfection studies showed that andrographolide affected CHIKV replication and the activity of andrographolide was shown to be cell type independent. This study suggests that andrographolide has the potential to be developed further as an anti-CHIKV therapeutic agent.

A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

OpenAIRE

Fred Brauer

2017-01-01

We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction number. While there is no explicit final size relation as for diseases transmitted directly, we are able to obtain estimates for the final size of the epidemic.

Differential inhibitory and activating NK cell receptor levels and NK/NKT-like cell functionality in chronic and recovered stages of chikungunya.

Science.gov (United States)

Thanapati, Subrat; Ganu, Mohini A; Tripathy, Anuradha S

2017-01-01

The role of natural killer (NK; CD3-CD56+)/NKT (CD3+CD56+)-like cells in chikungunya virus (CHIKV) disease progression/recovery remains unclear. Here, we investigated the expression profiles and function of NK and NKT-like cells from 35 chronic chikungunya patients, 30 recovered individuals, and 69 controls. Percentage of NKT-like cells was low in chronic chikungunya patients. NKp30+, CD244+, DNAM-1+, and NKG2D+ NK cell percentages were also lower (MFI and/or percentage), while those of CD94+ and NKG2A+ NKT-like cells were higher (MFI and/or percentage) in chronic patients than in recovered subjects. IFN-γ and TNF-α expression on NKT-like cells was high in the chronic patients, while only IFN-γ expression on NK cells was high in the recovered individuals. Furthermore, percentage of perforin+NK cells was low in the chronic patients. Lower cytotoxic activity was observed in the chronic patients than in the controls. CD107a expression on NK and NKT-like cells post anti-CD94/anti-NKG2A blocking was comparable among the patients and controls. Upregulated inhibitory and downregulated activating NK receptor expressions on NK/NKT-like cells, lower perforin+ and CD107a+NK cells are likely responsible for inhibiting the NK and NKT-like cell function in the chronic stage of chikungunya. Therefore, deregulation of NKR expression might underlie CHIKV-induced chronicity.

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

Science.gov (United States)

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya: Emerging Arboviruses in the New World.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Jessica; Sammon, Maura; Garg, Manish

2016-11-01

The arboviruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, and Zika illnesses have rapidly expanded across the globe in recent years, with large-scale outbreaks occurring in Western Hemisphere territories in close proximity to the United States (U.S.). In March 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Protection (CDC) expanded its vector surveillance maps for A. aegypti and A. albopictus , the mosquito vectors for these arboviruses. They have now been shown to inhabit a larger portion of the U.S., including the heavily populated northeast corridor. Emergency physicians need to further familiarize themselves with these diseases, which have classically been considered only in returning travelers but may soon be encountered in the U.S. even in the absence of travel. In this paper, we discuss the presentation and treatment of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, as well as special challenges presented to the emergency physician in evaluating a patient with a suspected arbovirus infection.

Chikungunya fever: current status in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Nava-Frías, Margarita; Searcy-Pavía, Ricardo Efrén; Juárez-Contreras, Carina Aurora; Valencia-Bautista, Anayeli

Chikungunya fever is a tropical vector-borne disease that has been spreading rapidly around the world during the last 10 years, and which has been usually misdiagnosed as dengue. Nowadays, this disease is increasing in Mexico, mainly in the southern and central zones of the country, being significantly more common in women, children and young adults (28% in<20 years of age). The classical presentation includes fever, arthralgia, polyarthritis, back-pain, and skin rashes. Although symptoms and treatment are similar to those for dengue, there are key clinical features to differentiate these two diseases. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Knowledge and practice regarding dengue and chikungunya

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kajeguka, Debora C; Desrochers, Rachelle E; Mwangi, Rose

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate knowledge and prevention practices regarding dengue and chikungunya amongst community members, as well as knowledge, treatment and diagnostic practices among healthcare workers. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional survey with 125 community members and 125 healthcare...... good knowledge. We conducted qualitative survey (n = 40) to further assess knowledge and practice regarding dengue and chikungunya fever. RESULTS: 15.2% (n = 19) of community members had good knowledge regarding dengue, whereas 53.6%, (n = 67) of healthcare workers did. 20.3% (n = 16) of participants...... from lowland areas and 6.5% (n = 3) from highland areas had good knowledge of dengue (χ(2) = 4.25, P = 0.03). Only 2.4% (n = 3) of all participants had a good knowledge score for chikungunya. In the qualitative study, community members expressed uncertainty about dengue and chikungunya. Some healthcare...

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

2009-03-01

We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

Oral receptivity of Aedes aegypti from Cape Verde for yellow fever, dengue, and chikungunya viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Vazeille, Marie; Yébakima, André; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo; Andriamahefazafy, Barrysson; Correira, Artur; Rodrigues, Julio Monteiro; Veiga, Antonio; Moreira, Antonio; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Grandadam, Marc; Failloux, Anna-Bella

2013-01-01

At the end of 2009, 21,313 cases of dengue-3 virus (DENV-3) were reported in the islands of Cape Verde, an archipelago located in the Atlantic Ocean 570 km from the coast of western Africa. It was the first dengue outbreak ever reported in Cape Verde. Mosquitoes collected in July 2010 in the city of Praia, on the island of Santiago, were identified morphologically as Aedes aegypti formosus. Using experimental oral infections, we found that this vector showed a moderate ability to transmit the epidemic dengue-3 virus, but was highly susceptible to chikungunya and yellow fever viruses.

RNA-Seq analysis of chikungunya virus infection and identification of granzyme A as a major promoter of arthritic inflammation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane A C Wilson

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is an arthritogenic alphavirus causing epidemics of acute and chronic arthritic disease. Herein we describe a comprehensive RNA-Seq analysis of feet and lymph nodes at peak viraemia (day 2 post infection, acute arthritis (day 7 and chronic disease (day 30 in the CHIKV adult wild-type mouse model. Genes previously shown to be up-regulated in CHIKV patients were also up-regulated in the mouse model. CHIKV sequence information was also obtained with up to ≈8% of the reads mapping to the viral genome; however, no adaptive viral genome changes were apparent. Although day 2, 7 and 30 represent distinct stages of infection and disease, there was a pronounced overlap in up-regulated host genes and pathways. Type I interferon response genes (IRGs represented up to ≈50% of up-regulated genes, even after loss of type I interferon induction on days 7 and 30. Bioinformatic analyses suggested a number of interferon response factors were primarily responsible for maintaining type I IRG induction. A group of genes prominent in the RNA-Seq analysis and hitherto unexplored in viral arthropathies were granzymes A, B and K. Granzyme A-/- and to a lesser extent granzyme K-/-, but not granzyme B-/-, mice showed a pronounced reduction in foot swelling and arthritis, with analysis of granzyme A-/- mice showing no reductions in viral loads but reduced NK and T cell infiltrates post CHIKV infection. Treatment with Serpinb6b, a granzyme A inhibitor, also reduced arthritic inflammation in wild-type mice. In non-human primates circulating granzyme A levels were elevated after CHIKV infection, with the increase correlating with viral load. Elevated granzyme A levels were also seen in a small cohort of human CHIKV patients. Taken together these results suggest granzyme A is an important driver of arthritic inflammation and a potential target for therapy.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00281294.

Dengue and Chikungunya Vector Control Pocket Guide

Science.gov (United States)

This technical guide consolidates information and procedures for surveillance and control of mosquitoes that transmit dengue and chikungunya viruses. The guide focuses on mosquitoes that transmit dengue but also makes reference to chikungunya and yellow fever because the pathogens that cause these ...

Chikungunya Virus: What You Need to Know

Science.gov (United States)

Chikungunya Virus: What you need to know Chikungunya (pronunciation: \\chik-en-gun-ye) is: ŠŠ A virus spread through Aedes species mosquito bites. Aedes mosquitoes also spread dengue and Zika viruses. ŠŠ A risk to anyone traveling to a region ...

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzetta, Giorgio; Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Baldacchino, Frederic Alexandre; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia

2017-09-01

In the last decades, several European countries where arboviral infections are not endemic have faced outbreaks of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue, initially introduced by infectious travellers from tropical endemic areas and then spread locally via mosquito bites. To keep in check the epidemiological risk, interventions targeted to control vector abundance can be implemented by local authorities. We assessed the epidemiological effectiveness and economic costs and benefits of routine larviciding in European towns with temperate climate, using a mathematical model of Aedes albopictus populations and viral transmission, calibrated on entomological surveillance data collected from ten municipalities in Northern Italy during 2014 and 2015.We found that routine larviciding of public catch basins can limit both the risk of autochthonous transmission and the size of potential epidemics. Ideal larvicide interventions should be timed in such a way to cover the month of July. Optimally timed larviciding can reduce locally transmitted cases of chikungunya by 20% - 33% for a single application (dengue: 18-22%) and up to 43% - 65% if treatment is repeated four times throughout the season (dengue: 31-51%). In larger municipalities (>35,000 inhabitants), the cost of comprehensive larviciding over the whole urban area overcomes potential health benefits related to preventing cases of disease, suggesting the adoption of more localized interventions. Small/medium sized towns with high mosquito abundance will likely have a positive cost-benefit balance. Involvement of private citizens in routine larviciding activities further reduces transmission risks but with disproportionate costs of intervention. International travels and the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases are increasing worldwide, exposing a growing number of European citizens to higher risks of potential outbreaks. Results from this study may support the planning and timing of interventions aimed to reduce the

Nowcast Predictions for Local Transmission of Chikungunya Virus

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Interactive visualization: http://www.cdc.gov/chikungunya/modeling/index.html. This dataset contains monthly predictions for the spread of chikungunya virus...

First chikungunya outbreak in Pakistan: a trail of viral attacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T.H. Mallhi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Despite explicit warning from the National Institute of Health, Pakistan experienced its first chikungunya outbreak in the metropolis of Karachi. We underscore the attention of health authorities and healthcare professionals towards contributing factors associated with this outbreak and the measures required to combat this viral disease.

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

OpenAIRE

Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

Surge of Dengue Virus Infection and Chikungunya Fever in Bali in 2010: The Burden of Mosquito-Borne Infectious Diseases in a Tourist Destination

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshikawa, Minako Jen; Kusriastuti, Rita

2013-01-01

Labor flow and travelers are important factors contributing to the spread of Dengue virus infection and chikungunya fever. Bali Province of Indonesia, a popular resort and tourist destination, has these factors and suffers from mosquito-borne infectious diseases. Using area study approach, a series of fieldwork was conducted in Bali to obtain up-to-date primary disease data, to learn more about public health measures, and to interview health officers, hotel personnel, and other resource persons. The national data including information on two other provinces were obtained for comparison. The health ministry reported 5,810 and 11,697 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bali in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Moreover, two densely populated tourist areas and one district have shown a particularly high incidence and sharp increases in 2010. Cases of chikungunya fever reported in Bali more than doubled in 2010 from the previous year. Our findings suggest that Bali can benefit from a significant reduction in vector populations and dissemination of disease preventive knowledge among both local residents and foreign visitors. This will require a concerted and trans-border approach, which may prove difficult in the province. PMID:23874141

Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Rinaldo, Andrea; Gatto, Marino

2018-06-14

Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

2010-01-01

The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

Chikungunya Virus Infection: An Update on Joint Manifestations and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Krutikov

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The advent of sophisticated diagnostics has enabled the discovery of previously unknown arthropod-borne viruses like Chikungunya. This infection has become increasingly prevalent in the last 10 years across the Indian Ocean and has been brought to media attention by a recent outbreak in the Caribbean. The outbreak has been aided by a drastic rise in air travel, allowing infected individuals to transport the virus to previously unaffected regions. In addition, a recently documented viral mutation has allowed its transmission by the Aedes albopictus mosquito, therefore facilitating outbreaks in Southern Europe and the USA. The duration and extent of the arthritis seen peri- and post infection has become a topic of academic interest. Although published data are largely observational, there has been a definite increase in original research focusing on this. Symptoms can persist for years, particularly in older patients with pre-existing medical conditions. The etiology is still not fully understood, but viral persistence and immune activation within synovial fluid have been shown in mouse models. There have been no prospective clinical trials of treatment in humans; however, animal trials are in process. The mainstay of treatment remains anti-inflammatories and steroids where necessary. The clinical presentation seems to mimic common rheumatological conditions like rheumatoid arthritis; therefore recent recommendations suggest the use disease-modifying agents as a common practice for the specific syndrome. This review uses recent published data and draws on our own clinical experience to provide an overview of joint complications of Chikungunya infection.

[Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya].

Science.gov (United States)

Kantor, Isabel N

2016-01-01

Arboviruses are transmitted by arthropods, including those responsible for the current pandemic: alphavirus (Chikungunya) and flaviviruses (dengue and Zika). Its importance increased in the Americas over the past 20 years. The main vectors are Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus. Dengue infection provides long lasting immunity against the specific serotype and temporary to the other three. Subsequent infection by another serotype determines more serious disease. There is a registered vaccine for dengue, Dengvaxia (Sanofi Pasteur). Other two (Butantan and Takeda) are in Phase III in 2016. Zika infection is usually asymptomatic or occurs with rash, conjunctivitis and not very high fever. There is no vaccine or specific treatment. It can be transmitted by parental, sexual and via blood transfusion. It has been associated with microcephaly. Chikungunya causes prolonged joint pain and persistent immune response. Two candidate vaccines are in Phase II. Dengue direct diagnosis is performed by virus isolation, RT-PCR and ELISA for NS1 antigen detection; indirect methods are ELISA-IgM (cross-reacting with other flavivirus), MAC-ELISA, and plaque neutralization. Zika is diagnosed by RT-PCR and virus isolation. Serological diagnosis cross-reacts with other flavivirus. For CHIKV culture, RT-PCR, MAC-ELISA and plaque neutralization are used. Against Aedes organophosphate larvicides (temephos), organophosphorus insecticides (malathion and fenitrothion) and pyrethroids (permethrin and deltamethrin) are usually employed. Resistance has been described to all these products. Vegetable derivatives are less expensive and biodegradable, including citronella oil, which microencapsulated can be preserved from evaporation.

Chikungunya: an emerging viral infection with varied clinical presentations in Bangladesh: Reports of seven cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahim, Muhammad Abdur; Uddin, Khwaja Nazim

2017-08-15

Chikungunya is an emerging and rapidly spreading viral infection in many parts of the world including Bangladesh. It shares many epidemiological and clinical characteristics with dengue. So, a sound knowledge is required for its detection and differentiation from dengue, specially in endemic regions. We present seven confirmed cases of chikungunya having different clinical presentations occurring among middle aged males and females from different socio-economic background in Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh. All patients had fever and aches and pains. Less common features were rash, diarrhea, vomiting and altered liver biochemistry. Dengue was excluded in six patients. Paracetamol remained the mainstay of treatment during febrile periods, but over 50% of the patients had prolonged joint symptoms requiring non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. In spite of being a self-limiting disease, chikungunya may have different presentations and a protracted clinical course. During the febrile episode, exclusion of dengue is equally important. Physicians should be aware of the condition and public health initiatives are necessary to break the disease transmission.

Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

2017-05-26

The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

Newer Vaccines against Mosquito-borne Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Anju; Garg, Neha

2018-02-01

Mosquitos are responsible for a number of protozoal and viral diseases. Malaria, dengue, Japanese encephalitis (JE) and chikungunya epidemics occur commonly all over the world, leading to marked mortality and morbidity in children. Zika, Yellow fever and West Nile fever are others requiring prevention. Environmental control and mosquito bite prevention are useful in decreasing the burden of disease but vaccination has been found to be most cost-effective and is the need of the hour. RTS,S/AS01 vaccine is the first malaria vaccine being licensed for use against P. falciparum malaria. Dengvaxia (CYD-TDV) against dengue was licensed first in Mexico in 2015. A Vero-cell derived, inactivated and alum-adjuvanted JE vaccine based on the SA14-14-2 strain was approved in 2009 in North America, Australia and various European countries. It can be used from 2 mo of age. In India, immunization is carried out in endemic regions at 1 y of age. Another inactivated Vero-cell culture derived Kolar strain, 821564XY, JE vaccine is being used in India. Candidate vaccines against dengue, chikungunya and West Nile fever are been discussed. A continued research and development of new vaccines are required for controlling these mosquito-borne diseases.

Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

Development of in-house serological methods for diagnosis and surveillance of chikungunya.

Science.gov (United States)

Galo, Saira Saborío; González, Karla; Téllez, Yolanda; García, Nadezna; Pérez, Leonel; Gresh, Lionel; Harris, Eva; Balmaseda, Ángel

2017-08-21

To develop and evaluate serological methods for chikungunya diagnosis and research in Nicaragua. Two IgM ELISA capture systems (MAC-ELISA) for diagnosis of acute chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections, and two Inhibition ELISA Methods (IEM) to measure total antibodies against CHIKV were developed using monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and hyperimmune serum at the National Virology Laboratory of Nicaragua in 2014-2015. The sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and agreement of the MAC-ELISAs were obtained by comparing the results of 198 samples (116 positive; 82 negative) with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's IgM ELISA (Atlanta, Georgia, United States; CDC-MAC-ELISA). For clinical evaluation of the four serological techniques, 260 paired acute and convalescent phase serum samples of suspected chikungunya cases were used. All four assays were standardized by determining the optimal concentrations of the different reagents. Processing times were substantially reduced compared to the CDC-MAC-ELISA. For the MAC-ELISA systems, a sensitivity of 96.6% and 97.4%, and a specificity of 98.8% and 91.5% were obtained using mAb and hyperimmune serum, respectively, compared with the CDC method. Clinical evaluation of the four serological techniques versus the CDC real-time RT-PCR assay resulted in a sensitivity of 95.7% and a specificity of 88.8%-95.9%. Two MAC-ELISA and two IEM systems were standardized, demonstrating very good quality for chikungunya diagnosis and research demands. This will achieve more efficient epidemiological surveillance in Nicaragua, the first country in Central America to produce its own reagents for serological diagnosis of CHIKV. The methods evaluated here can be applied in other countries and will contribute to sustainable diagnostic systems to combat the disease.

Development of in-house serological methods for diagnosis and surveillance of chikungunya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saira Saborío Galo

2017-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To develop and evaluate serological methods for chikungunya diagnosis and research in Nicaragua. Methods Two IgM ELISA capture systems (MAC-ELISA for diagnosis of acute chikungunya virus (CHIKV infections, and two Inhibition ELISA Methods (IEM to measure total antibodies against CHIKV were developed using monoclonal antibodies (mAbs and hyperimmune serum at the National Virology Laboratory of Nicaragua in 2014–2015. The sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and agreement of the MAC-ELISAs were obtained by comparing the results of 198 samples (116 positive; 82 negative with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s IgM ELISA (Atlanta, Georgia, United States; CDC-MAC-ELISA. For clinical evaluation of the four serological techniques, 260 paired acute and convalescent phase serum samples of suspected chikungunya cases were used. Results All four assays were standardized by determining the optimal concentrations of the different reagents. Processing times were substantially reduced compared to the CDC-MAC-ELISA. For the MAC-ELISA systems, a sensitivity of 96.6% and 97.4%, and a specificity of 98.8% and 91.5% were obtained using mAb and hyperimmune serum, respectively, compared with the CDC method. Clinical evaluation of the four serological techniques versus the CDC real-time RT-PCR assay resulted in a sensitivity of 95.7% and a specificity of 88.8%–95.9%. Conclusion Two MAC-ELISA and two IEM systems were standardized, demonstrating very good quality for chikungunya diagnosis and research demands. This will achieve more efficient epidemiological surveillance in Nicaragua, the first country in Central America to produce its own reagents for serological diagnosis of CHIKV. The methods evaluated here can be applied in other countries and will contribute to sustainable diagnostic systems to combat the disease.

Antagonism of the Sodium-Potassium ATPase Impairs Chikungunya Virus Infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison W. Ashbrook

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a reemerging alphavirus that has caused epidemics of fever, arthralgia, and rash worldwide. There are currently no licensed vaccines or antiviral therapies available for the prevention or treatment of CHIKV disease. We conducted a high-throughput, chemical compound screen that identified digoxin, a cardiac glycoside that blocks the sodium-potassium ATPase, as a potent inhibitor of CHIKV infection. Treatment of human cells with digoxin or a related cardiac glycoside, ouabain, resulted in a dose-dependent decrease in infection by CHIKV. Inhibition by digoxin was cell type-specific, as digoxin treatment of either murine or mosquito cells did not diminish CHIKV infection. Digoxin displayed antiviral activity against other alphaviruses, including Ross River virus and Sindbis virus, as well as mammalian reovirus and vesicular stomatitis virus. The digoxin-mediated block to CHIKV and reovirus infection occurred at one or more postentry steps, as digoxin inhibition was not bypassed by fusion of CHIKV at the plasma membrane or infection with cell surface-penetrating reovirus entry intermediates. Selection of digoxin-resistant CHIKV variants identified multiple mutations in the nonstructural proteins required for replication complex formation and synthesis of viral RNA. These data suggest a role for the sodium-potassium ATPase in promoting postentry steps of CHIKV replication and provide rationale for modulation of this pathway as a broad-spectrum antiviral strategy.

Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

Estimating and mapping the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Honduras during 2015 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano, Lysien I; Sierra, Manuel; Lara, Bredy; Rodríguez-Núñez, Iván; Medina, Marco T; Lozada-Riascos, Carlos O; Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

Geographical information systems (GIS) use for development of epidemiological maps in dengue has been extensively used, however not in other emerging arboviral diseases, nor in Central America. Surveillance cases data (2015) were used to estimate annual incidence rates of dengue and chikungunya (cases/100,000 pop) to develop the first maps in the departments and municipalities of Honduras. The GIS software used was Kosmo Desktop 3.0RC1 ® . Four thematic maps were developed according departments, municipalities, diseases incidence rates. A total of 19,289 cases of dengue and 85,386 of chikungunya were reported (median, 726 cases/week for dengue and 1460 for chikungunya). Highest peaks were observed at weeks 25th and 27th, respectively. There was association between progression by weeks (p37%, both). Use of GIS-based epidemiological maps allow to guide decisions-taking for prevention and control of diseases that still represents significant issues in the region and the country, but also in emerging conditions. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-Infection of Mosquitoes with Chikungunya and Dengue Viruses Reveals Modulation of the Replication of Both Viruses in Midguts and Salivary Glands of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Coupanec, Alain; Tchankouo-Nguetcheu, Stéphane; Roux, Pascal; Khun, Huot; Huerre, Michel; Morales-Vargas, Ronald; Enguehard, Margot; Lavillette, Dimitri; Missé, Dorothée; Choumet, Valérie

2017-08-04

Arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) infections cause several emerging and resurgent infectious diseases in humans and animals. Chikungunya-affected areas often overlap with dengue-endemic areas. Concurrent dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections have been detected in travelers returning from regions of endemicity. CHIKV and DENV co-infected Aedes albopictus have also been collected in the vicinity of co-infected human cases, emphasizing the need to study co-infections in mosquitoes. We thus aimed to study the pathogen-pathogen interaction involved in these co-infections in DENV/CHIKV co-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In mono-infections, we detected CHIKV antigens as early as 4 days post-virus exposure in both the midgut (MG) and salivary gland (SG), whereas we detected DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2) antigens from day 5 post-virus exposure in MG and day 10 post-virus exposure in SG. Identical infection rates were observed for singly and co-infected mosquitoes, and facilitation of the replication of both viruses at various times post-viral exposure. We observed a higher replication for DENV-2 in SG of co-infected mosquitoes. We showed that mixed CHIKV and DENV infection facilitated viral replication in Ae. aegypti . The outcome of these mixed infections must be further studied to increase our understanding of pathogen-pathogen interactions in host cells.

Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

OpenAIRE

Lyle Fearnley

2010-01-01

In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jake M Ferguson

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Jake M; Langebrake, Jessica B; Cannataro, Vincent L; Garcia, Andres J; Hamman, Elizabeth A; Martcheva, Maia; Osenberg, Craig W

2014-06-01

The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Chikungunya Arthritis Mechanisms in the Americas (CAMA): A cross sectional analysis of chikungunya arthritis patients 22 months post-infection demonstrates a lack of viral persistence in synovial fluid

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-30

2010;120(3): 894-906. 442 (8) Hoarau JJ , Jaffar Bandjee MC, Krejbich Trotot P, Das T, Li-Pat-Yuen G, Dassa B, et al. Persistent chronic 443...Fingolimod treatment abrogates 478 chikungunya virus-induced arthralgia. Sci Transl Med. 2017;9(375): eaal1333. 479 (24) Miner JJ , Cook LE, Hong

Overcrowding and disease epidemics in colonial Lagos: rethinking ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Thus, it degenerated to overcrowding and disease epidemics as epitomised by the outbreak of tuberculosis and bubonic plague in 1919 and between 1924 and 1930 respectively. The paper, therefore, concludes that with the available evidence at our disposal, it is obvious that the road and railway were constructed to ...

Rape and HIV post-exposure prophylaxis: addressing the dual epidemics in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Julia C; Martin, Lorna J; Denny, Lynette

2003-11-01

In South Africa, a country notable for both a rapidly escalating AIDS epidemic and high levels of sexual violence, the issue of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) following rape has recently come to the fore, and a policy supporting provision of PEP has been approved by the national government. This paper compares the conditions for providing PEP in Europe and North America with the conditions faced by two initiatives in South Africa, one serving a primarily rural base, and one urban. It is based on a review of the literature on sexual violence in South Africa and use of PEP following occupational and non-occupational exposure. It incorporates perspectives from in-depth interviews in 2000 with 18 key informants, including survivors of sexual violence, gender and HIV activists, domestic violence NGOs, rape crisis centres, physicians, lawyers, researchers and HIV/AIDS advisors in the Department of Health. The paper argues that given the scientific evidence for PEP, and the nature of the dual epidemics of HIV and sexual violence in South Africa, the public health and social justice rationale for implementing PEP equals and indeed exceeds that put forward in industrialised countries. However, delays in accessing PEP caused by the public justice system and lack of training for service providers constitute significant obstacles to effective implementation. In this respect, provision of PEP presents an opportunity to reform and strengthen existing services for post-rape care and to link attention to the epidemic of sexual violence to HIV/AIDS prevention.

Leidos Biomed Supports Clinical Trials for Vaccine Against Mosquito-borne Chikungunya | FNLCR Staging

Science.gov (United States)

An experimental vaccine for mosquito-borne chikungunya is being tested at sites in the Caribbean as part of a phase II clinical trial being managed by the Frederick National Lab. No vaccine or treatment currently exists for the viral disease, which c

Prevalence of dengue and chikungunya virus infections in north-eastern Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kajeguka, Debora C; Kaaya, Robert D; Mwakalinga, Steven

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: In spite of increasing reports of dengue and chikungunya activity in Tanzania, limited research has been done to document the general epidemiology of dengue and chikungunya in the country. This study aimed at determining the sero-prevalence and prevalence of acute infections of dengue......-like symptoms at health facilities at Bondo dispensary (Bondo, Tanga), Hai hospital (Hai, Kilimanjaro) and TPC hospital (Lower Moshi). Participants who were malaria negative using rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) were screened for sero-positivity towards dengue and chikungunya Immunoglobulin G and M (IgG and Ig......M) using ELISA-based kits. Participants with specific symptoms defined as probable dengue and/or chikungunya by WHO (fever and various combinations of symptoms such as headache, rash, nausea/vomit, and joint pain) were further screened for acute dengue and chikungunya infections by PCR. RESULTS: Out...

Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Mniszewski, S M; Manore, C A; Bryan, C; Del Valle, S Y; Roberts, D

2014-07-01

Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.

Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop.

Science.gov (United States)

Godfray, H Charles J; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman

2016-12-05

Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

[Situational panorama of Mexico against the chikungunya virus pandemic].

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Martínez-Sánchez, Abisai; Martínez-Ramos, Ericay Berenice; Chávez-Angeles, Manuel Gerardo

2015-01-01

Recent outbreaks of emerging diseases emphasize the vulnerability of health systems, as is the case of chikungunya fever. The wide geographical incidence of the virus in the last years requires alerting systems for the prevention, diagnosis, control and eradication of the disease. Given the ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic characteristic of Mexico, this disease affects directly or indirectly the health of the population and development of agricultural, livestock, industrial, fishing, oil and tourism activities in the country. Due to this situation it is essential to make a brief analysis on the main clinical data, epidemiological and preventive measures with which our country counts with to confront the situation.

Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

Knowledge and practice regarding dengue and chikungunya: a cross-sectional study among Healthcare workers and community in Northern Tanzania.

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Kajeguka, Debora C; Desrochers, Rachelle E; Mwangi, Rose; Mgabo, Maseke R; Alifrangis, Michael; Kavishe, Reginald A; Mosha, Franklin W; Kulkarni, Manisha A

2017-05-01

To investigate knowledge and prevention practices regarding dengue and chikungunya amongst community members, as well as knowledge, treatment and diagnostic practices among healthcare workers. We conducted a cross-sectional survey with 125 community members and 125 healthcare workers from 13 health facilities in six villages in the Hai district of Tanzania. A knowledge score was generated based on participant responses to a structured questionnaire, with a score of 40 or higher (of 80 and 50 total scores for community members and healthcare workers, respectively) indicating good knowledge. We conducted qualitative survey (n = 40) to further assess knowledge and practice regarding dengue and chikungunya fever. 15.2% (n = 19) of community members had good knowledge regarding dengue, whereas 53.6%, (n = 67) of healthcare workers did. 20.3% (n = 16) of participants from lowland areas and 6.5% (n = 3) from highland areas had good knowledge of dengue (χ 2 = 4.25, P = 0.03). Only 2.4% (n = 3) of all participants had a good knowledge score for chikungunya. In the qualitative study, community members expressed uncertainty about dengue and chikungunya. Some healthcare workers thought that they were new diseases. There is insufficient knowledge regarding dengue and chikungunya fever among community members and healthcare workers. Health promotion activities on these diseases based on Ecological Health Mode components to increase knowledge and improve preventive practices should be developed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

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Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

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Linda Valeri

Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Molecular and Clinical Characterization of Chikungunya Virus Infections in Southeast Mexico

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Martínez-Landeros, Erik; Delgado-Gallegos, Juan L.; Caballero-Sosa, Sandra; Malo-García, Iliana R.

2018-01-01

Chikungunya fever is an arthropod-borne infection caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Even though clinical features of Chikungunya fever in the Mexican population have been described before, there is no detailed information. The aim of this study was to perform a full description of the clinical features in confirmed Chikungunya-infected patients and describe the molecular epidemiology of CHIKV. We evaluated febrile patients who sought medical assistance in Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico, from June through July 2015. Infection was confirmed with molecular and serological methods. Viruses were isolated and the E1 gene was sequenced. Phylogeny reconstruction was inferred using maximum-likelihood and maximum clade credibility approaches. We studied 52 patients with confirmed CHIKV infection. They were more likely to have wrist, metacarpophalangeal, and knee arthralgia. Two combinations of clinical features were obtained to differentiate between Chikungunya fever and acute undifferentiated febrile illness. We obtained 10 CHIKV E1 sequences that grouped with the Asian lineage. Seven strains diverged from the formerly reported. Patients infected with the divergent CHIKV strains showed a broader spectrum of clinical manifestations. We defined the complete clinical features of Chikungunya fever in patients from Southeastern Mexico. Our results demonstrate co-circulation of different CHIKV strains in the state of Chiapas. PMID:29747416

Molecular and Clinical Characterization of Chikungunya Virus Infections in Southeast Mexico

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Kame A. Galán-Huerta

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya fever is an arthropod-borne infection caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV. Even though clinical features of Chikungunya fever in the Mexican population have been described before, there is no detailed information. The aim of this study was to perform a full description of the clinical features in confirmed Chikungunya-infected patients and describe the molecular epidemiology of CHIKV. We evaluated febrile patients who sought medical assistance in Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico, from June through July 2015. Infection was confirmed with molecular and serological methods. Viruses were isolated and the E1 gene was sequenced. Phylogeny reconstruction was inferred using maximum-likelihood and maximum clade credibility approaches. We studied 52 patients with confirmed CHIKV infection. They were more likely to have wrist, metacarpophalangeal, and knee arthralgia. Two combinations of clinical features were obtained to differentiate between Chikungunya fever and acute undifferentiated febrile illness. We obtained 10 CHIKV E1 sequences that grouped with the Asian lineage. Seven strains diverged from the formerly reported. Patients infected with the divergent CHIKV strains showed a broader spectrum of clinical manifestations. We defined the complete clinical features of Chikungunya fever in patients from Southeastern Mexico. Our results demonstrate co-circulation of different CHIKV strains in the state of Chiapas.

Preventing the Epidemic of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Overview

OpenAIRE

Robson , Anthony ,

2013-01-01

International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Non-communicable disease is a global epidemic because of the combined effect of the modern diet (including drug abuse) and a sedentary lifestyle. A low energy dense, drug-free diet rich in bioavailable nutrients-plus-exercise is most effective for preventing non-communicable disease throughout life. Nanoc...

Dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination and double diseases driven by Lévy jumps

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Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar

2018-02-01

In this paper, we study the dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination and double diseases which make the research more complex. The environment variability in this paper is characterized by white noise and Lévy noise. We establish sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the two epidemic diseases. It is shown that: (i) time delay and Lévy noise have important effects on the persistence and extinction of epidemic diseases; (ii) two diseases can coexist under certain conditions.

Chikungunya: Its History in Africa and Asia and Its Spread to New Regions in 2013-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeller, Herve; Van Bortel, Wim; Sudre, Bertrand

2016-12-15

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and causes febrile illness with severe arthralgia in humans. There are 3 circulating CHIKV genotypes, Asia, East/Central/South Africa, and West Africa. CHIKV was first reported in 1953 in Tanzania, and up until the early 2000s, a few outbreaks and sporadic cases of CHIKV were mainly reported in Africa and Asia. However, from 2004 to 2005, a large epidemic spanned from Kenya over to the southwestern Indian Ocean region, India, and Southeast Asia. Identified in 2005, the E1 glycoprotein A226V mutation of the East/Central/South Africa genotype conferred enhanced transmission by the A. albopictus mosquito and has been implicated in CHIKV's further spread in the last decade. In 2013, the Asian CHIKV genotype emerged in the Caribbean and quickly took the Americas by storm. This review will discuss the history of CHIKV as well as its expanding geographic distribution. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Protection motivation theory and social distancing behaviour in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic.

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Williams, Lynn; Rasmussen, Susan; Kleczkowski, Adam; Maharaj, Savi; Cairns, Nicole

2015-01-01

Epidemics of respiratory infectious disease remain one of the most serious health risks facing the population. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. hand-washing or wearing face masks) can have a significant impact on the course of an infectious disease epidemic. The current study investigated whether protection motivation theory (PMT) is a useful framework for understanding social distancing behaviour (i.e. the tendency to reduce social contacts) in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic. There were 230 participants (109 males, 121 females, mean age 32.4 years) from the general population who completed self-report measures assessing the components of PMT. In addition, participants completed a computer game which simulated an infectious disease epidemic in order to provide a measure of social distancing behaviour. The regression analyses revealed that none of the PMT variables were significant predictors of social distancing behaviour during the simulation task. However, fear (β = .218, p < .001), response efficacy (β = .175, p < .01) and self-efficacy (β = .251, p < .001) were all significant predictors of intention to engage in social distancing behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables (and demographic factors) explain 21.2% of the variance in intention. The findings demonstrated that PMT was a useful framework for understanding intention to engage in social distancing behaviour, but not actual behaviour during the simulated epidemic. These findings may reflect an intention-behaviour gap in relation to social distancing behaviour.

Identification of Dengue and Chikungunya Cases Among Suspected Cases of Yellow Fever in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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Makiala-Mandanda, Sheila; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Abbate, Jessica L; Pukuta-Simbu, Elisabeth; Nsio-Mbeta, Justus; Berthet, Nicolas; Leroy, Eric Maurice; Becquart, Pierre; Muyembe-Tamfum, Jean-Jacques

2018-05-16

For more than 95% of acute febrile jaundice cases identified through surveillance for yellow fever, a reemerging arthropod-borne viral disease, no etiological exploration is ever done. The aim of this study was to test for other arthropod-borne viruses that can induce the same symptoms in patients enrolled in the yellow fever surveillance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Of 652 patients included in the surveillance of yellow fever in DRC from January 2003 to January 2012, 453 patients that tested negative for yellow fever virus (YFV) immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies were selected for the study. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed for the detection of dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, O'nyong-nyong, Rift Valley fever, Zika, and YFV. The average age of patients was 22.1 years. We reported 16 cases (3.5%; confidence interval [CI]: 0.8-5.2) of dengue (serotypes 1 and 2) and 2 cases (0.4%; CI: 0.0-1.0) of Chikungunya. Three patients were co-infected with the two serotypes of dengue virus. Three cases of dengue were found in early July 2010 from the city of Titule (Oriental province) during a laboratory-confirmed outbreak of yellow fever, suggesting simultaneous circulation of dengue and yellow fever viruses. This study showed that dengue and Chikungunya viruses are potential causes of acute febrile jaundice in the DRC and highlights the need to consider dengue and Chikungunya diagnosis in the integrated disease surveillance and response program in the DRC. A prospective study is necessary to establish the epidemiology of these diseases.

Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

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Dih-Ling Luh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

Mucocutaneous features of Chikungunya fever: a study from an outbreak in West Bengal, India.

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Bandyopadhyay, Debabrata; Ghosh, Sudip Kumar

2008-11-01

Chikungunya fever (CF) epidemic has recently re-emerged in India on a large scale affecting many parts of the country. We have reviewed the mucocutaneous manifestations of the disease in a number of cases. Twenty six serologically proven cases of CF with rash from the district of 24-Paraganas (North) in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal were subjected to detailed clinical study to investigate the chronology and evolution of mucocutaneous lesions, the type and distribution of the rash, and systemic changes. Most patients were in their 3rd and 4th decade (23% each). Males and females were equally affected. Most patients developed the rash concomitantly with the onset or during the febrile illness, but 5 (19.2%) developed rash after defervescence. Most (57.7%) patients developed rash within the first 2 days of fever. The upper limb was the most common site of first appearance of lesions. Morbilliform eruption was the most common type of lesion noted, followed by scaling, macular erythema, intertrigo, hypermelanosis, xerosis, excoriated papules, urticaria and petechial spots. Cutaneous lesions were generally asymptomatic but 5 (19.2%) patients had intense pruritus. Mucosal lesions were found in 4 (15.4%) patients. Moderate to marked joint involvement was universal. CF exanthem may have varying morphology. Since the disease is spreading widely in different parts of the world, it should be considered in the differential diagnosis of any acute febrile arthropathy with rash.

Chikungunya viral fitness measures within the vector and subsequent transmission potential.

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Rebecca C Christofferson

Full Text Available Given the recent emergence of chikungunya in the Americas, the accuracy of forecasting and prediction of chikungunya transmission potential in the U.S. requires urgent assessment. The La Reunion-associated sub-lineage of chikungunya (with a valine substitution in the envelope protein was shown to increase viral fitness in the secondary vector, Ae. albopictus. Subsequently, a majority of experimental and modeling efforts focused on this combination of a sub-lineage of the East-Central-South African genotype (ECSA-V-Ae. albopictus, despite the Asian genotype being the etiologic agent of recent chikungunya outbreaks world-wide. We explore a collection of data to investigate relative transmission efficiencies of the three major genotypes/sub-lineages of chikungunya and found difference in the extrinsic incubation periods to be largely overstated. However, there is strong evidence supporting the role of Ae. albopictus in the expansion of chikungunya that our R0 calculations cannot attribute to fitness increases in one vector over another. This suggests other ecological factors associated with the Ae. albopictus-ECSA-V cycle may drive transmission intensity differences. With the apparent bias in literature, however, we are less prepared to evaluate transmission where Ae. aegypti plays a significant role. Holistic investigations of CHIKV transmission cycle(s will allow for more complete assessment of transmission risk in areas affected by either or both competent vectors.

Detection and phylogenetic characterization of arbovirus dual-infections among persons during a chikungunya fever outbreak, Haiti 2014.

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Sarah K White

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In the context of recent arbovirus epidemics, questions about the frequency of simultaneous infection of patients with different arbovirus species have been raised. In 2014, a major Chikungunya virus (CHIKV epidemic impacted the Caribbean and South America. As part of ongoing screening of schoolchildren presenting with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in rural Haiti, we used RT-PCR to identify CHIKV infections in 82 of 100 children with this diagnosis during May-August 2014. Among these, eight were infected with a second arbovirus: six with Zika virus (ZIKV, one with Dengue virus serotype 2, and one with Mayaro virus (MAYV. These dual infections were only detected following culture of the specimen, suggesting low viral loads of the co-infecting species. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the ZIKV and MAYV strains differ from those detected later in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Moreover, CHIKV and ZIKV strains from co-infected patients clustered monophyletically in their respective phylogeny, and clock calibration traced back the common ancestor of each clade to an overlapping timeframe of introduction of these arboviruses onto the island.

Using Remote Sensing, Weather, and Demographic Data to Create Risk Maps for Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya in Brazil

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Manore, C.; Conrad, J.; Del Valle, S.; Ziemann, A.; Fairchild, G.; Generous, E. N.

2017-12-01

Mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses have dynamics coupled to weather, ecology, human infrastructure, socio-economic demographics, and behavior. We use time-varying remote sensing and weather data, along with demographics and ecozones to predict risk through time for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil. We use distributed lag methods to quantify the lag between outbreaks and weather. Our statistical model indicates that the relationships between the variables are complex, but that quantifying risk is possible with the right data at appropriate spatio-temporal scales.

Nonstructural protein 2 (nsP2) of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) enhances protective immunity mediated by a CHIKV envelope protein expressing DNA Vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Huihui; Ramanathan, Aarti A; Kawalakar, Omkar; Sundaram, Senthil G; Tingey, Colleen; Bian, Charoran B; Muruganandam, Nagarajan; Vijayachari, Paluru; Sardesai, Niranjan Y; Weiner, David B; Ugen, Kenneth E; Muthumani, Karuppiah

2013-02-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an important emerging mosquito-borne alphavirus, indigenous to tropical Africa and Asia. It can cause epidemic fever and acute illness characterized by fever and arthralgias. The epidemic cycle of this infection is similar to dengue and urban yellow fever viral infections. The generation of an efficient vaccine against CHIKV is necessary to prevent and/or control the disease manifestations of the infection. In this report, we studied immune response against a CHIKV-envelope DNA vaccine (pEnv) and the role of the CHIKV nonstructural gene 2 (nsP2) as an adjuvant for the induction of protective immune responses in a relevant mouse challenge model. When injected with the CHIKV pEnv alone, 70% of the immunized mice survived CHIKV challenge, whereas when co-injected with pEnv+pnsP2, 90% of the mice survived viral challenge. Mice also exhibited a delayed onset signs of illness, and a marked decrease in morbidity, suggesting a nsP2 mediated adjuvant effect. Co-injection of the pnsP2 adjuvant with pEnv also qualitatively and quantitatively increased antigen specific neutralizing antibody responses compared to vaccination with pEnv alone. In sum, these novel data imply that the addition of nsP2 to the pEnv vaccine enhances anti-CHIKV-Env immune responses and maybe useful to include in future CHIKV clinical vaccination strategies.

Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

2011-12-01

Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

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Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

2015-01-21

While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

RABBIT POX : II. PATHOLOGY OF THE EPIDEMIC DISEASE.

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, H S

1934-09-30

The lesions found in animals with epidemic rabbit pox have been described in this paper. The most distinctive gross lesion in all organs and tissues was the small nodule or papule which was found to consist of mononuclear infiltration and necrosis. Diffuse lesions were also found in which the infiltration was widespread and accompanied by edema, hemorrhage and extensive necrosis of affected tissues and organs. The possibility of the diffuse lesions being due to the action of secondary invaders was considered, but available evidence indicated that the different types, including pneumonia, represented reactions to a single causative agent. Moreover, an intimate relationship was observed to exist between lesions and small blood vessels in which primary endothelial damage was usually apparent. The degree of vascular damage generally corresponded to the extent of the lesion and it is probable that this in turn corresponded to the dose of the causative agent. The close analogy between the clinical manifestations and pathological processes of this disease in the rabbit and small pox in man led to the conclusion that the disease in the rabbit is essentially the same as small pox, and that it is probably produced by a virus closely related to the virus of small pox. Available evidence indicated that the infection originated in the Institute and that it spread in atypical form or masked by some other disease until it reached the breeding colony as a clearly defined epidemic infection.

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

Therapeutic administration of a recombinant human monoclonal antibody reduces the severity of chikungunya virus disease in rhesus macaques.

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Rebecca Broeckel

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a mosquito-borne virus that causes a febrile syndrome in humans associated with acute and chronic debilitating joint and muscle pain. Currently no licensed vaccines or therapeutics are available to prevent or treat CHIKV infections. We recently isolated a panel of potently neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs, one (4N12 of which exhibited prophylactic and post-exposure therapeutic activity against CHIKV in immunocompromised mice. Here, we describe the development of an engineered CHIKV mAb, designated SVIR001, that has similar antigen binding and neutralization profiles to its parent, 4N12. Because therapeutic administration of SVIR001 in immunocompetent mice significantly reduced viral load in joint tissues, we evaluated its efficacy in a rhesus macaque model of CHIKV infection. Rhesus macaques that were treated after infection with SVIR001 showed rapid elimination of viremia and less severe joint infiltration and disease compared to animals treated with SVIR002, an isotype control mAb. SVIR001 reduced viral burden at the site of infection and at distant sites and also diminished the numbers of activated innate immune cells and levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. SVIR001 therapy; however, did not substantively reduce the induction of CHIKV-specific B or T cell responses. Collectively, these results show promising therapeutic activity of a human anti-CHIKV mAb in rhesus macaques and provide proof-of-principle for its possible use in humans to treat active CHIKV infections.

Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2016-04-01

Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-time whole-body visualization of Chikungunya Virus infection and host interferon response in zebrafish.

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Nuno Palha

Full Text Available Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV, a re-emerging arbovirus that may cause severe disease, constitutes an important public health problem. Herein we describe a novel CHIKV infection model in zebrafish, where viral spread was live-imaged in the whole body up to cellular resolution. Infected cells emerged in various organs in one principal wave with a median appearance time of ∼14 hours post infection. Timing of infected cell death was organ dependent, leading to a shift of CHIKV localization towards the brain. As in mammals, CHIKV infection triggered a strong type-I interferon (IFN response, critical for survival. IFN was mainly expressed by neutrophils and hepatocytes. Cell type specific ablation experiments further demonstrated that neutrophils play a crucial, unexpected role in CHIKV containment. Altogether, our results show that the zebrafish represents a novel valuable model to dynamically visualize replication, pathogenesis and host responses to a human virus.

Zika and Chikungunya virus detection in naturally infected Aedes aegypti in Ecuador.

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Cevallos, Varsovia; Ponce, Patricio; Waggoner, Jesse J; Pinsky, Benjamin A; Coloma, Josefina; Quiroga, Cristina; Morales, Diego; Cárdenas, Maria José

2018-01-01

The wide and rapid spread of Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses represent a global public health problem, especially for tropical and subtropical environments. The early detection of CHIKV and ZIKV in mosquitoes may help to understand the dynamics of the diseases in high-risk areas, and to design data based epidemiological surveillance to activate the preparedness and response of the public health system and vector control programs. This study was done to detect ZIKV and CHIKV viruses in naturally infected fed female Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes from active epidemic urban areas in Ecuador. Pools (n=193; 22 pools) and individuals (n=22) of field collected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes from high-risk arboviruses infection sites in Ecuador were analyzed for the presence of CHIKV and ZIKV using RT-PCR. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that both ZIKV and CHIKV viruses circulating in Ecuador correspond to the Asian lineages. Minimum infection rate (MIR) of CHIKV for Esmeraldas city was 2.3% and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was 3.3%. The minimum infection rate (MIR) of ZIKV for Portoviejo city was 5.3% and for Manta city was 2.1%. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for Portoviejo city was 6.9% and 2.6% for Manta city. Detection of arboviruses and infection rates in the arthropod vectors may help to predict an outbreak and serve as a warning tool in surveillance programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

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Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

2016-11-01

An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

Outbreak of chikungunya in Johor Bahru, Malaysia: clinical and laboratory features of hospitalized patients.

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Chew, L P; Chua, H H

2009-09-01

In 2008, an outbreak of chikungunya infection occurred in Johor. We performed a retrospective review of all laboratory confirmed adult chikungunya cases admitted to Hospital Sultanah Aminah, Johor Bahru from April to August 2008, looking into clinical and laboratory features. A total of 18 laboratory confirmed cases of chikungunya were identified with patients presenting with fever, joint pain, rash and vomiting. Haemorrhagic signs were not seen. Lymphopenia, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, raised liver enzymes and deranged coagulation profile were the prominent laboratory findings. We hope this study can help guide physician making a diagnosis of chikungunya against other arborviruses infection.

Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

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van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2018-04-12

We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

Dengue infection in the nervous system: lessons learned for Zika and Chikungunya

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Marzia Puccioni-Sohler

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya are emerging arboviruses and important causes of acute febrile disease in tropical areas. Although dengue does not represent a new condition, a geographic expansion over time has occurred with the appearance of severe neurological complications. Neglect has allowed the propagation of the vector (Aedes spp, which is also responsible for the transmission of other infections such as Zika and Chikungunya throughout the world. The increased number of infected individuals has contributed to the rise of neurological manifestations including encephalitis, myelitis, meningitis, Guillain-Barré syndrome and congenital malformations such as microcephaly. In this narrative review, we characterize the impact of the geographic expansion of the vector on the appearance of neurological complications, and highlight the lack of highly accurate laboratory tests for nervous system infections. This represents a challenge for public health in the world, considering the high number of travelers and people living in endemic areas.

Epidemic typhus.

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Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

2008-07-01

Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

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Eggo, Rosalind M; Lenczner, Michael

2015-01-01

Background Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective The aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. Methods We used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. Results We identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic

Renal involvement in fatal cases of chikungunya virus infection.

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Mercado, Marcela; Acosta-Reyes, Jorge; Parra, Edgar; Guzmán, Luis; Beltrán, Mauricio; Gasque, Philippe; Mejía-García, Carlos; Viasus, Diego

2018-06-01

Information regarding physiopathology and complications in fatal cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is scarce. The aim of this study was to describe the frequency and severity of renal complications in fatal cases associated with CHIKV infection based on the clinical and histopathological features from post-mortem tissue biopsies. This retrospective study included fatal cases associated with CHIKV infection occurring from September 2014 through October 2015, reported to National System for Public Health Surveillance (SIVIGILA) and laboratory-confirmed by the National Institute of Health of Colombia. Medical records from 13 patients were available. Information was collected on history, physical examination, and haematological, biochemical, radiological, and virologic investigation reports. Diagnosis of CHIKV infection was performed by positive CHIKV-PCR on post-mortem tissue in 10 cases, positive CHIKV-PCR in serum in 6 cases and anti-CHIKV virus IgM in 2 cases. Only 3 cases were children (≤5 years old). Four cases had underlying diseases, mainly systemic arterial hypertension. The median value of creatinine at admission was 2.8 mg/dL (interquartile range 1.52-4.51). During hospitalization, 9 cases required ICU admission, 8 vasopressor support and 6 mechanical ventilation. Kidney histopathological findings were mainly acute interstitial nephritis (11 cases), congestion/oedema glomerular (10 cases) and acute tubular necrosis (5 cases). Renal impairment in fatal cases of CHIKV infection is frequent and related mainly to acute interstitial nephritis. These data demonstrate evidence of acquired kidney injuries during CHIKV infection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender and leadership for health literacy to combat the epidemic rise of noncommunicable diseases.

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Manhanzva, Rufaro; Marara, Praise; Duxbury, Theodore; Bobbins, Amy Claire; Pearse, Noel; Hoel, Erik; Mzizi, Thandi; Srinivas, Sunitha C

2017-08-01

Until recently, the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic has been considered only a significant burden to men in high-income countries. However, latest figures indicate that half of all NCD-related deaths affect women, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global responses to the NCD epidemic overlooking the significance of women and girls in their approaches and programs. This case study highlights the burden of disease challenging South Africa that disproportionately affects women in the country and suggests that the country, along with other LMICs internationally, requires a shift in the gender-based leadership of health literacy and self-empowerment.

Comparative efficacy of two poeciliid fish in indoor cement tanks against chikungunya vector Aedes aegypti in villages in Karnataka, India

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Ojha Vijay P

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2006, severe outbreaks of Aedes aegypti-transmitted chikungunya occurred in villages in Karnataka, South India. We evaluated the effectiveness of combined information, education and communication (IEC campaigns using two potential poeciliid larvivorous fish guppy (Poecilia reticulata and mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis, in indoor cement tanks for Aedes larval control. Methods Trials were conducted in two villages (Domatmari and Srinivaspura in Tumkur District from March to May 2006 for Poecilia and one village (Balmanda in Kolar District from July to October 2006 for Gambusia. A survey on knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP on chikungunya was initially conducted and IEC campaigns were performed before and after fish release in Domatmari (IEC alone, followed by IEC + Poecilia and Balmanda (IEC + Gambusia. In Srinivaspura, IEC was not conducted. Larval surveys were conducted at the baseline followed by one-week and one-month post-intervention periods. The impact of fish on Aedes larvae and disease was assessed based on baseline and post-intervention observations. Results Only 18% of respondents knew of the role of mosquitoes in fever outbreaks, while almost all (n = 50 each gained new knowledge from the IEC campaigns. In Domatmari, IEC alone was not effective (OR 0.54; p = 0.067. Indoor cement tanks were the most preferred Ae. aegypti breeding habitat (86.9%, and had a significant impact on Aedes breeding (Breteau Index in all villages in the one-week period (p p p = 0.063 and Balmanda (OR 0.51, p = 0.067. After fish introductions, chikungunya cases were reduced by 99.87% in Domatmari, 65.48% in Srinivaspura and 68.51% in Balmanda. Conclusions Poecilia exhibited greater survival rates than Gambusia (86.04 vs.16.03% in cement tanks. Neither IEC nor Poecilia alone was effective against Aedes (p > 0.05. We conclude that Poecilia + IEC is an effective intervention strategy. The operational cost was 0.50 (US$ 0.011, 1 US$= 47

Behavioral, climatic, and environmental risk factors for Zika and Chikungunya virus infections in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2015-16.

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Fuller, Trevon L; Calvet, Guilherme; Genaro Estevam, Camila; Rafael Angelo, Jussara; Abiodun, Gbenga J; Halai, Umme-Aiman; De Santis, Bianca; Carvalho Sequeira, Patricia; Machado Araujo, Eliane; Alves Sampaio, Simone; Lima de Mendonça, Marco Cesar; Fabri, Allison; Ribeiro, Rita Maria; Harrigan, Ryan; Smith, Thomas B; Raja Gabaglia, Claudia; Brasil, Patrícia; Bispo de Filippis, Ana Maria; Nielsen-Saines, Karin

2017-01-01

The burden of arboviruses in the Americas is high and may result in long-term sequelae with infants disabled by Zika virus infection (ZIKV) and arthritis caused by infection with Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). We aimed to identify environmental drivers of arbovirus epidemics to predict where the next epidemics will occur and prioritize municipalities for vector control and eventual vaccination. We screened sera and urine samples (n = 10,459) from residents of 48 municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro for CHIKV, dengue virus (DENV), and ZIKV by molecular PCR diagnostics. Further, we assessed the spatial pattern of arbovirus incidence at the municipal and neighborhood scales and the timing of epidemics and major rainfall events. Lab-confirmed cases included 1,717 infections with ZIKV (43.8%) and 2,170 with CHIKV (55.4%) and only 29 (<1%) with DENV. ZIKV incidence was greater in neighborhoods with little access to municipal water infrastructure (r = -0.47, p = 1.2x10-8). CHIKV incidence was weakly correlated with urbanization (r = 0.2, p = 0.02). Rains began in October 2015 and were followed one month later by the largest wave of ZIKV epidemic. ZIKV cases markedly declined in February 2016, which coincided with the start of a CHIKV outbreak. Rainfall predicted ZIKV and CHIKV with a lead time of 3 weeks each time. The association between rainfall and epidemics reflects vector ecology as the larval stages of Aedes aegypti require pools of water to develop. The temporal dynamics of ZIKV and CHIKV may be explained by the shorter incubation period of the viruses in the mosquito vector; 2 days for CHIKV versus 10 days for ZIKV.

Behavioral, climatic, and environmental risk factors for Zika and Chikungunya virus infections in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2015-16.

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Trevon L Fuller

Full Text Available The burden of arboviruses in the Americas is high and may result in long-term sequelae with infants disabled by Zika virus infection (ZIKV and arthritis caused by infection with Chikungunya virus (CHIKV. We aimed to identify environmental drivers of arbovirus epidemics to predict where the next epidemics will occur and prioritize municipalities for vector control and eventual vaccination. We screened sera and urine samples (n = 10,459 from residents of 48 municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro for CHIKV, dengue virus (DENV, and ZIKV by molecular PCR diagnostics. Further, we assessed the spatial pattern of arbovirus incidence at the municipal and neighborhood scales and the timing of epidemics and major rainfall events. Lab-confirmed cases included 1,717 infections with ZIKV (43.8% and 2,170 with CHIKV (55.4% and only 29 (<1% with DENV. ZIKV incidence was greater in neighborhoods with little access to municipal water infrastructure (r = -0.47, p = 1.2x10-8. CHIKV incidence was weakly correlated with urbanization (r = 0.2, p = 0.02. Rains began in October 2015 and were followed one month later by the largest wave of ZIKV epidemic. ZIKV cases markedly declined in February 2016, which coincided with the start of a CHIKV outbreak. Rainfall predicted ZIKV and CHIKV with a lead time of 3 weeks each time. The association between rainfall and epidemics reflects vector ecology as the larval stages of Aedes aegypti require pools of water to develop. The temporal dynamics of ZIKV and CHIKV may be explained by the shorter incubation period of the viruses in the mosquito vector; 2 days for CHIKV versus 10 days for ZIKV.

Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics

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Sun, G.Q.; Liu, Q.X.; Jin, Z.; Chakraborty, A.; Li, B.L.

2010-01-01

Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

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Keeling Matthew J

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

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Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2013-11-12

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures.

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Zuiyuan Guo

Full Text Available We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0 as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31-50%, 45% (42-48%, and 51% (44-56% among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

Aedes albopictus mosquito: the main vector of the 2007 Chikungunya outbreak in Gabon.

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Frédéric Pagès

Full Text Available The primary vector at the origin of the 2007 outbreak in Libreville, Gabon is identified as Aedes albopictus, trapped around the nearby French military camp. The Chikungunya virus was isolated from mosquitoes and found to be identical to the A226V circulating human strain. This is the first field study showing the role of the recently arrived species Aedes albopictus in Chikungunya virus transmission in Central Africa, and it demonstrates this species' role in modifying the epidemiological presentation of Chikungunya in Gabon.

Prevalence of Malaria, Dengue, and Chikungunya Significantly Associated with Mosquito Breeding Sites

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Islam, Mohammad Nazrul; ZulKifle, Mohammad; Sherwani, Arish Mohammad Khan; Ghosh, Susanta Kumar; Tiwari, Satyanarayan

2011-01-01

Objectives: To observe the prevalence of malaria, dengue, and chikungunya and their association with mosquito breeding sites. Methods: The study was observational and analytical. A total of 162 houses and 670 subjects were observed during the study period. One hundred forty-two febrile patients were eligible for the study. After obtaining informed consent from all febrile patients, 140 blood samples were collected to diagnose malaria, dengue, and chikungunya. Larval samples were collected by the standard protocol that follows. Correlation of data was performed by Pearson correlation test. Results: Forty-seven blood samples were found positive: 33 for chikungunya, 3 for dengue, and 11 for malaria. Fifty-one out of 224 larval samples were found positive. Out of the 51 positive samples, 37 were positive for Aedes, 12 were positive for Anopheles, and two were positive for Culex larvae. Interpretation and Conclusion: Mosquito-borne fevers, especially malaria, dengue, and chikungunya, have shown a significant relationship with mosquito breeding sites. PMID:23610486

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A comprehensive review of a growing epidemic

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Hassan, Kareem; Bhalla, Varun; Ezz El Regal, Mohammed; A-Kader, H Hesham

2014-01-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is quickly becoming one of the most prominent causes of liver disease worldwide. The increasing incidence of NAFLD is tied to the obesity epidemic and the subsequent metabolic derangements brought along with it. Current efforts to elucidate the mechanism and causes of the disease have answered some questions, but much remains unknown about NAFLD. The aim of this article is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of the disease, as well as the current and future diagnostic, preventative, and therapeutic options available to clinicians for the management of NAFLD. PMID:25232245

Chikungunya virus outbreak in Sint Maarten, 2013–2014

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Maria Henry

2017-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This report describes the outbreak of chikungunya virus (CHIKV in Sint Maarten, a constituent country of Kingdom of the Netherlands comprising the southern part of the Caribbean island of Saint Martin, from 22 December 2013 (first reported case through 5 December 2014. The outbreak was first reported by the French overseas collectivity of Saint-Martin in the northern part of the island—the first site in the Americas to report autochthonous transmission of CHIKV. By 5 December 2014, Sint Maarten had reported a total of 658 cases—an overall attack rate of 1.76%. Actual prevalence may have been higher, as some cases may have been misdiagnosed as dengue. Fever and arthralgia affected 71% and 69% of reported cases respectively. Of the 390 laboratory-confirmed cases, 61% were female and the majority were 20–59 years old (mean: 42; range: 4–92. The spread of CHIKV to Sint Maarten was inevitable given the ease of movement of people, and the vector, island-wide. Continuing their history of collaboration, the French and Dutch parts of the island coordinated efforts for prevention and control of the disease. These included a formal agreement to exchange epidemiological information on a regular basis and provide alerts in a timely manner; collaboration among personnel through joint island-wide planning of mosquito control activities, especially along borders; notification of all island visitors, upon their arrival at airports and seaports, of preventative measures to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes; dissemination of educational materials to the public; and island-wide public awareness campaigns, particularly in densely populated areas, for both residents and visitors. The information provided in this report could help increase understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of CHIKV and guide other countries dealing with vector-borne epidemics.

Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

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Paul R. Bessell

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices of Vector-Borne Disease Prevention during the Emergence of a New Arbovirus: Implications for the Control of Chikungunya Virus in French Guiana.

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Camille Fritzell

2016-11-01

Full Text Available During the last decade, French Guiana has been affected by major dengue fever outbreaks. Although this arbovirus has been a focus of many awareness campaigns, very little information is available about beliefs, attitudes and behaviors regarding vector-borne diseases among the population of French Guiana. During the first outbreak of the chikungunya virus, a quantitative survey was conducted among high school students to study experiences, practices and perceptions related to mosquito-borne diseases and to identify socio-demographic, cognitive and environmental factors that could be associated with the engagement in protective behaviors.A cross-sectional survey was administered in May 2014, with a total of 1462 students interviewed. Classrooms were randomly selected using a two-stage selection procedure with cluster samples. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA associated with a hierarchical cluster analysis and with an ordinal logistic regression was performed. Chikungunya was less understood and perceived as a more dreadful disease than dengue fever. The analysis identified three groups of individual protection levels against mosquito-borne diseases: "low" (30%, "moderate" (42% and "high" (28%". Protective health behaviors were found to be performed more frequently among students who were female, had a parent with a higher educational status, lived in an individual house, and had a better understanding of the disease.This study allowed us to estimate the level of protective practices against vector-borne diseases among students after the emergence of a new arbovirus. These results revealed that the adoption of protective behaviors is a multi-factorial process that depends on both sociocultural and cognitive factors. These findings may help public health authorities to strengthen communication and outreach strategies, thereby increasing the adoption of protective health behaviors, particularly in high-risk populations.

Ebola virus disease outbreak; the role of field epidemiology training programme in the fight against the epidemic, Liberia, 2014.

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Lubogo, Mutaawe; Donewell, Bangure; Godbless, Lucas; Shabani, Sasita; Maeda, Justin; Temba, Herilinda; Malibiche, Theophil C; Berhanu, Naod

2015-01-01

The African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) is a public health network established in 2005 as a non-profit networking alliance of Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs (FELTPs) and Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) in Africa. AFENET is dedicated to supporting Ministries of Health in Africa build strong, effective and sustainable programs and capacity to improve public health systems by partnering with global public health experts. The Network's goal is to strengthen field epidemiology and public health laboratory capacity to contribute effectively to addressing epidemics and other major public health problems in Africa. The goal for the establishment of FETP and FELTP was and still is to produce highly competent multi-disciplinary public health professionals who would assume influential posts in the public health structures and tackle emerging and re-emerging communicable and non-communicable diseases. AFENET currently networks 12 FELTPs and FETPs in sub-Saharan Africa with operations in 20 countries. During the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, African Union Support for the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa (ASEOWA) supported FETP graduates from Uganda, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Tanzania for the investigation and control of the EVD outbreak in Liberia. The graduates were posted in different counties in Liberia where they lead teams of other experts conduct EVD outbreak investigations, Infection Control and Prevention trainings among health workers and communities, Strengthening integrated disease surveillance, developing Standard Operating Procedures for infection control and case notification in the Liberian setting as well as building capacity of local surveillance officers' conduct outbreak investigation and contact tracing. The team was also responsible for EVD data management at the different Counties in Liberia. The FETP graduates have been instrumental in the earlier successes registered in various counties in Liberia

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

Emerging mosquito-borne viruses: transmission and modulation of host defence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fros, J.J.

2015-01-01

Summary

Two highly pathogenic arthropod-borne (arbo)viruses, West Nile virus (WNV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), recently (re-)emerged in both Europe and the Americas. This resulted in large-scale epidemics of severe encephalitic and arthritogenic human disease,

Chikungunya as a cause of acute febrile illness in southern Sri Lanka.

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Megan E Reller

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV re-emerged in Sri Lanka in late 2006 after a 40-year hiatus. We sought to identify and characterize acute chikungunya infection (CHIK in patients presenting with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in unstudied rural and semi-urban southern Sri Lanka in 2007.We enrolled febrile patients ≥ 2 years of age, collected uniform epidemiologic and clinical data, and obtained serum samples for serology, virus isolation, and real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR. Serology on paired acute and convalescent samples identified acute chikungunya infection in 3.5% (28/797 patients without acute dengue virus (DENV infection, 64.3% (18/28 of which were confirmed by viral isolation and/or real-time RT-PCR. No CHIKV/DENV co-infections were detected among 54 patients with confirmed acute DENV. Sequencing of the E1 coding region of six temporally distinct CHIKV isolates (April through October 2007 showed that all isolates posessed the E1-226A residue and were most closely related to Sri Lankan and Indian isolates from the same time period. Except for more frequent and persistent musculoskeletal symptoms, acute chikungunya infections mimicked DENV and other acute febrile illnesses. Only 12/797 (1.5% patients had serological evidence of past chikungunya infection.Our findings suggest CHIKV is a prominent cause of non-specific acute febrile illness in southern Sri Lanka.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

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Clement N Mweya

Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

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Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2014-01-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya: An Analysis of the Risk Coverage of Diseases Associated with Climate Change from the Perspective of Environmental Journalism

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Cláudia Herte de Moraes

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We understand that the Environmental Journalism can be seen as part of the Risk Communication associated with the environment, since many conflicts derived from man-nature relationship become perceived danger or threat to life. In order to reflect on their role in the context of the risks, we analyze the coverage of Folha de S. Paulo about three diseases (dengue, chikungunya and zika, which can be related to the intensification of climate change. With the theoretical and methodological orientation of Discourse Analysis, we conclude that the approach is based on scientific sources, foreign and Discursive formations that link the prospects of technological optimism, scientific uncertainty and caution.

Management and Treatment of Dengue and Chikungunya - Natural Products to the Rescue.

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Suroowan, Shanoo; Mahomoodally, Fawzi; Ragoo, Luxcha

2016-01-01

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) flourish mostly in impoverished developing nations of the world. It is estimated that NTDs plague up to 1 billion people every year thereby inducing a massive economic and health burden worldwide. Following explosive outbreaks mostly in Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Indian Ocean, two common NTDs namely, Chikungunya and Dengue both transmitted by an infected mosquito vector principally Aedes aegypti have emerged as a major public health threat. Given the limitations of conventional medicine in specifically targeting the Chikungunya and Dengue virus (CHIKV and DENV), natural products present an interesting avenue to explore in the quest of developing novel anti; mosquito, CHIKV and DENV agents. In this endeavor, a number of plant extracts, isolated phytochemicals, essential oils and seaweeds have shown promising larvicidal and insecticidal activity against some mosquito vectors as well as anti CHIKV and DENV activity invitro. Other natural products that have depicted good potential against these diseases include; the symbiotic bacterial genus Wolbachia which can largely reduce the life span and infectivity of mosquito vectors and the marine Cyanobacterium Trichodesmium erythraeum which has shown anti- CHIKV activity at minimal cytotoxic level. The impetus of modern drug discovery approaches such as high throughput screening, drug repositioning, synthesis and computer-aided drug design will undeniably enhance the process of developing more stable lead molecules from natural products which have shown promising antiviral activity in-vitro.

Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

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Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

2013-01-01

We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

Longitudinal Analysis of Natural Killer Cells in Dengue Virus-Infected Patients in Comparison to Chikungunya and Chikungunya/Dengue Virus-Infected Patients.

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Caroline Petitdemange

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Dengue virus (DENV is the most prominent arbovirus worldwide, causing major epidemics in South-East Asia, South America and Africa. In 2010, a major DENV-2 outbreak occurred in Gabon with cases of patients co-infected with chikungunya virus (CHIKV. Although the innate immune response is thought to be of primordial importance in the development and outcome of arbovirus-associated pathologies, our knowledge of the role of natural killer (NK cells during DENV-2 infection is in its infancy.We performed the first extensive comparative longitudinal characterization of NK cells in patients infected by DENV-2, CHIKV or both viruses. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analyses were performed to discriminate between CHIKV and DENV-2 infected patients.We observed that both activation and differentiation of NK cells are induced during the acute phase of infection by DENV-2 and CHIKV. Combinatorial analysis however, revealed that both arboviruses induced two different signatures of NK-cell responses, with CHIKV more associated with terminal differentiation, and DENV-2 with inhibitory KIRs. We show also that intracellular production of interferon-γ (IFN-γ by NK cells is strongly stimulated in acute DENV-2 infection, compared to CHIKV.Although specific differences were observed between CHIKV and DENV-2 infections, the significant remodeling of NK cell populations observed here suggests their potential roles in the control of both infections.

Urbanization and geographic expansion of zoonotic arboviral diseases: mechanisms and potential strategies for prevention

OpenAIRE

Weaver, Scott C.

2013-01-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) mainly infect people via direct spillover from enzootic cycles. However, dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses have repeatedly initiated urban transmission cycles involving human amplification and peridomestic mosquito vectors to cause major epidemics. Here, I review these urban emergences and potential strategies for their prevention and control.

Estimating the spatial distribution of a plant disease epidemic from a sample

Science.gov (United States)

Sampling is of central importance in plant pathology. It facilitates our understanding of how epidemics develop in space and time and can also be used to inform disease management decisions. Making inferences from a sample is necessary because we rarely have the resources to conduct a complete censu...

Characterization of chikungunya virus-like particles.

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Nitchakarn Noranate

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is becoming a global concern due to the increasing number of outbreaks throughout the world and the absence of any CHIKV-specific vaccine or treatment. Virus-like particles (VLPs are multistructured proteins that mimic the organization and conformation of native viruses but lack the viral genome. They are noninfectious and potentially safer vaccine candidates. Recent studies demonstrated that the yield of CHIKV VLPs varies depending on the strains, despite the 95% amino acid similarity of the strains. This might be due to the codon usage, since protein expression is differently controlled by different organisms. We optimized the region encoding CHIKV structural proteins, C-E3-E2-6k-E1, inserted it into a mammalian expression vector, and used the resulting construct to transfect 293 cells. We detected 50-kDa proteins corresponding to E1 and/or E2 in the cell lysate and the supernatant. Transmission electron microscopy revealed spherical particles with a 50- to 60-nm diameter in the supernatant that resembled the native CHIKV virions. The buoyant density of the VLPs was 1.23 g/mL, and the yield was 20 µg purified VLPs per 108 cells. The VLPs aggregated when mixed with convalescent sera from chikungunya patients, indicating that their antigenicity is similar to that of native CHIKV. Antibodies elicited with the VLPs were capable of detecting native CHIKV, demonstrating that the VLPs retain immunogenicity similar to that of the native virion. These results indicated that CHIKV VLPs are morphologically, antigenically, and immunologically similar to the native CHIKV, suggesting that they have potential for use in chikungunya vaccines.

Hubungan Tindakan Pemberantasan Sarang Nyamuk (PSN dengan Keberadaan Jentik Vektor Chikungunya di Kampung Taratak Paneh Kota Padang

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Mutia Dwi Putri

2016-09-01

Full Text Available AbstrakKampung Taratak Paneh merupakan daerah yang paling banyak terjadi kasus Chikungunya pada tahun 2012 (45 kasus. Penyebaran Chikungunya dipengaruhi faktor lingkungan dan tindakan Pemberantasan Sarang Nyamuk (PSN. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melihat hubungan PSN terhadap keberadaan larva vektor Chikungunya. Penelitian ini adalah analitik dengan desain cross sectional study. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Kampung Taratak Paneh dengan jumlah subjek sebanyak 87 orang. Subjek diambil dengan metode proporsional simple random sampling.  Data disajikan dalam bentuk tabel distribusi dan dianalisis dengan uji chi square. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan antara tindakan PSN dengan keberadaan jentik (p=0,000. Terdapat hubungan yang bermakna antara menguras TPA untuk keperluan mandi (p=0,029 dan keperluan rumah tangga (p=0,038,  menutup TPA setiap kali digunakan (p=0,013,  mengubur barang bekas (p=0,034, menabur bubuk abate (p=0,001, dan membersihkan talang air (p=0,000  terhadap keberadaan jentik vektor Chikungunya. Tidak terdapat hubungan antara tindakan memelihara ikan pemakan jentik (p=0,760, pencahayaan dan ventilasi yang cukup (p=0,053, menggantung pakaian di dalam kamar (p=0,068, memasang kawat kasa (p=0,274, membersihkan pot/vas bunga berisi air/tempat minum burung (p=0,915, menggunakan kelambu (p=0,619, menggunakan obat anti nyamuk (p=0,209 dan menutup lubang  pohon (p=0,123 terhadap keberadaan jentik vektor Chikungunya.Kata kunci: PSN, jentik, vektor chikungunya AbstractTaratak Paneh is the most common area of Chikungunya cases in 2012 (45 cases.The spreading of Chikungunya is influenced by environmental factor and practice of breading place eradication. The objective of this study was to discover the relationship between breading place eradication practice and the presence of larvae Chikungunya vektor.This was an analytic research with cross-sectional study design. The research was held in Taratak Paneh on 87 samples

Web mapping GIS: GPS under the GIS umbrella for Aedes species dengue and chikungunya vector mosquito surveillance and control

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M. Palaniyandi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The mosquito nuisance and the mosquito borne diseases have become major important challenging public health problems in India especially in the fast developing city like Pondicherry urban agglomeration. The Pondicherry government has been implemented full-fledged mosquito control measures, however, dengue and chikungunya epidemics was accelerating trend in Pondicherry for the recent years, and therefore, the directorate of public health, Pondicherry was requested vector control research centre (VCRC, to conduct a mosquito control evaluation survey. A team of field staff of VCRC headed by the author, Pondicherry, have conducted a detailed reconnaissance survey for collecting the site specifications of houses and the streetwise mosquito data for analyzing the density of vector mosquitoes in the wards / blocks and delineating the areas vulnerable to disease epidemics in the urban areas. The GPS GARMIN 12 XL was used to collect the field data. The ARC GIS 10.0 software was used to map the site locations (houses with mosquito’s data. The digital map of block boundary of Pondicherry was used for mapping purpose. A systematic grid sampling was applied to conduct a rapid survey for mapping Aedes species mosquito genic condition in the urban areas and the coordinates of sites of house information with breeding habitats positive in the grid sectors was collected using GPS, and the mean value of positive habitats was analyzed by quintiles method for mapping. The four blocks were selected for Aedes mosquito survey where the mosquito problem was identified as comparatively high, four numbers of wards were selected from each block, and the 40 number of houses was selected with 100 meter interval distance for mosquito breeding survey in the domestic and peripheral domestic areas in each wards. The problematic areas were identified, highlighted and recommended for web mapping GIS for Aedes mosquito surveillance continuously for monitoring the mosquito control

Hepatitis E epidemics in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

Numerical Analysis of Fractional Order Epidemic Model of Childhood Diseases

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Fazal Haq

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The fractional order Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR epidemic model of childhood disease is considered. Laplace–Adomian Decomposition Method is used to compute an approximate solution of the system of nonlinear fractional differential equations. We obtain the solutions of fractional differential equations in the form of infinite series. The series solution of the proposed model converges rapidly to its exact value. The obtained results are compared with the classical case.

Congenital and perinatal complications of chikungunya fever: a Latin American experience

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Jaime R. Torres

2016-10-01

Conclusions: This study presents the largest number of symptomatic neonates with CHIKF analyzed so far in any region and is the first involving infection with the Asian genotype of CHIKV. Although the clinical manifestations found were similar to those reported previously, the percentage of neurological complications was lower. The CFR was comparatively high. Chikungunya represented a substantial risk for neonates born to symptomatic parturients during the chikungunya outbreak in the Americas Region, with important clinical and public health implications.

Evidence for endemic chikungunya virus infections in Bandung, Indonesia.

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Herman Kosasih

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is known to cause sporadic or explosive outbreaks. However, little is known about the endemic transmission of CHIKV. To ascertain the endemic occurrence of CHIKV transmission, we tested blood samples from patients with a non-dengue febrile illness who participated in a prospective cohort study of factory workers in Bandung, Indonesia. From August 2000 to June 2004, and September 2006 to April 2008, 1901 febrile episodes occurred and 231 (12.2% dengue cases were identified. The remaining febrile cases were evaluated for possible CHIKV infection by measuring anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG antibodies in acute and convalescent samples. Acute samples of serologically positive cases were subsequently tested for the presence of CHIKV RNA by RT-PCR and/or virus isolation. A total of 135 (7.1% CHIKV infections were identified, providing an incidence rate of 10.1/1,000 person years. CHIKV infections were identified all year round and tended to increase during the rainy season (January to March. Severe illness was not found and severe arthralgia was not a prominently reported symptom. Serial post-illness samples from nine cases were tested to obtain a kinetic picture of IgM and IgG anti-CHIKV antibodies. Anti-CHIKV IgM antibodies were persistently detected in high titers for approximately one year. Three patients demonstrated evidence of possible sequential CHIKV infections. The high incidence rate and continuous chikungunya cases in this adult cohort suggests that CHIKV is endemically transmitted in Bandung. Further characterization of the circulating strains and surveillance in larger areas are needed to better understand CHIKV epidemiology in Indonesia.

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

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Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Two profitless delays for an SEIRS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission and pulse vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng Xinzhu; Jiao Jianjun; Chen Lansun

2009-01-01

Since the investigation of impulsive delay differential equations is beginning, the literature on delay epidemic models with pulse vaccination is not extensive. In this paper, we propose a new SEIRS epidemic disease model with two profitless delays and vertical transmission, and analyze the dynamics behaviors of the model under pulse vaccination. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a 'infection-free' periodic solution, further, show that the 'infection-free' periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model are under appropriate conditions. Using a new modeling method, we obtain sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination. We show that time delays, pulse vaccination and vertical transmission can bring different effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model by numerical analysis. Our results also show the delays are 'profitless'. In this paper, the main feature is to introduce two discrete time delays, vertical transmission and impulse into SEIRS epidemic model and to give pulse vaccination strategies.

A Decade of Monitoring HIV Epidemics in Nigeria: Positioning for Post-2015 Agenda.

Science.gov (United States)

Akinwande, Oluyemisi; Bashorun, Adebobola; Azeez, Aderemi; Agbo, Francis; Dakum, Patrick; Abimiku, Alashle; Bilali, Camara; Idoko, John; Ogungbemi, Kayode

2017-07-01

Nigeria accounts for 9% of the global HIV burden and is a signatory to Millennium Development Goals as well as the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. This paper reviews maturation of her HIV M&E system and preparedness for monitoring of the post-2015 agenda. Using the UNAIDS criteria for assessing a functional M&E system, a mixed-methods approach of desk review and expert consultations, was employed. Following adoption of a multi-sectoral M&E system, Nigeria experienced improved HIV coordination at the National and State levels, capacity building for epidemic appraisals, spectrum estimation and routine data quality assessments. National data and systems audit processes were instituted which informed harmonization of tools and indicators. The M&E achievements of the HIV response enhanced performance of the National Health Management Information System (NHMIS) using DHIS2 platform following its re-introduction by the Federal Ministry of Health, and also enabled decentralization of data management to the periphery. A decade of implementing National HIV M&E framework in Nigeria and the recent adoption of the DHIS2 provides a strong base for monitoring the Post 2015 agenda. There is however a need to strengthen inter-sectoral data linkages and reduce the rising burden of data collection at the global level.

Dengue, Zika y Chikungunya

OpenAIRE

Kantor, Isabel N

2016-01-01

Los responsables de la actual pandemia de Chikungunya (alfavirus), dengue y Zika (flavivirus) son virus trasmitidos por artrópodos, arbovirus. Su importancia aumentó en las Américas en los últimos 20 años. Los vectores principales son Aedes aegypti y A. albopictus. La infección por dengue provee inmunidad duradera al serotipo específico y temporaria a otros tres. La posterior infección por otro serotipo determina mayor gravedad. Existe una vacuna contra dengue registrada, Dengvaxia (Sanofi Pa...

Chikungunya Outbreaks Caused by African Genotype, India

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

Chikungunya fever has reemerged in India, with thousands of people reporting moderate to high fever with arthralgia and arthritis. Learn what researchers at the National Institute of Virology in Pune, India, determined after analying blood samples collected from suspected case-patients in 3 Indian states.

Emergence of chikungunya seropositivity in healthy Malaysian adults residing in outbreak-free locations: Chikungunya seroprevalence results from the Malaysian Cohort

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background In 1998, Malaysia experienced its first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak in the suburban areas followed by another two in 2006 (rural areas) and 2008 (urban areas), respectively. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of documented data regarding the magnitude of CHIKV exposure in the Malaysian population. The aim of this study was to determine the extent of chikungunya virus infection in healthy Malaysian adults residing in outbreak-free locations. Methods A cross sectional study of chikungunya (CHIK) seroprevalence was carried out in 2009 amongst The Malaysian Cohort participants living in four states (Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Pahang and Negeri Sembilan). A total of 945 participants were randomly identified for the study. Potential risk factors for CHIK infection were determined via questionnaires, and IgG antibodies against CHIK were detected by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression identified risk factors associated with CHIK seropositivity, while geographical information system was used for visual and spatial analysis. Results From the 945 serum samples tested, 5.9% was positive for CHIK IgG. Being male, Malay, rural occupancy and Negeri Sembilan residency were identified as univariate predictors for CHIK seropositivity, while multivariate analysis identified being male and rural occupancy as risk factors. Conclusions This study provided evidence that CHIK is slowly emerging in Malaysia. Although the current baseline seroprevalence is low in this country, increasing number of CHIK cases reported to the Malaysia Ministry of Health imply the possibility of CHIK virus becoming endemic in Malaysia. PMID:23379541

Economic and Social Factors in Designing Disease Control Strategies for Epidemics on Networks

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Kleczkowski, A.; Dybiec, B.; Gilligan, C. A.

2006-11-01

Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links, even if this involves additional costs. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.

Prevalence of Malaria, Dengue, and Chikungunya Significantly Associated with Mosquito Breeding Sites

OpenAIRE

Islam, Mohammad Nazrul; ZulKifle, Mohammad; Sherwani, Arish Mohammad Khan; Ghosh, Susanta Kumar; Tiwari, Satyanarayan

2011-01-01

Objectives: To observe the prevalence of malaria, dengue, and chikungunya and their association with mosquito breeding sites. Methods: The study was observational and analytical. A total of 162 houses and 670 subjects were observed during the study period. One hundred forty-two febrile patients were eligible for the study. After obtaining informed consent from all febrile patients, 140 blood samples were collected to diagnose malaria, dengue, and chikungunya. Larval samples were collected by ...

External quality assessment of dengue and chikungunya diagnostics in the Asia Pacific region, 2015

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Li Ting Soh

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: To conduct an external quality assessment (EQA of dengue and chikungunya diagnostics among national-level public health laboratories in the Asia Pacific region following the first round of EQA for dengue diagnostics in 2013. Methods: Twenty-four national-level public health laboratories performed routine diagnostic assays on a proficiency testing panel consisting of two modules. Module A contained serum samples spiked with cultured dengue virus (DENV or chikungunya virus (CHIKV for the detection of nucleic acid and DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1 antigen. Module B contained human serum samples for the detection of anti-DENV antibodies. Results: Among 20 laboratories testing Module A, 17 (85% correctly detected DENV RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, 18 (90% correctly determined serotype and 19 (95% correctly identified CHIKV by RT-PCR. Ten of 15 (66.7% laboratories performing NS1 antigen assays obtained the correct results. In Module B, 18/23 (78.3% and 20/20 (100% of laboratories correctly detected anti-DENV IgM and IgG, respectively. Detection of acute/recent DENV infection by both molecular (RT-PCR and serological methods (IgM was available in 19/24 (79.2% participating laboratories. Discussion: Accurate laboratory testing is a critical component of dengue and chikungunya surveillance and control. This second round of EQA reveals good proficiency in molecular and serological diagnostics of these diseases in the Asia Pacific region. Further comprehensive diagnostic testing, including testing for Zika virus, should comprise future iterations of the EQA.

Regulation of Viral Replication, Apoptosis and Pro-Inflammatory Responses by 17-AAG during Chikungunya Virus Infection in Macrophages

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Tapas K. Nayak

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV infection has re-emerged as a major public health concern due to its recent worldwide epidemics and lack of control measures. Although CHIKV is known to infect macrophages, regulation of CHIKV replication, apoptosis and immune responses towards macrophages are not well understood. Accordingly, the Raw264.7 cells, a mouse macrophage cell line, were infected with CHIKV and viral replication as well as new viral progeny release was assessed by flow cytometry and plaque assay, respectively. Moreover, host immune modulation and apoptosis were studied through flow cytometry, Western blot and ELISA. Our current findings suggest that expression of CHIKV proteins were maximum at 8 hpi and the release of new viral progenies were remarkably increased around 12 hpi. The induction of Annexin V binding, cleaved caspase-3, cleaved caspase-9 and cleaved caspase-8 in CHIKV infected macrophages suggests activation of apoptosis through both intrinsic and extrinsic pathways. The pro-inflammatory mediators (TNF and IL-6 MHC-I/II and B7.2 (CD86 were also up-regulated during infection over time. Further, 17-AAG, a potential HSP90 inhibitor, was found to regulate CHIKV infection, apoptosis and pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine productions of host macrophages significantly. Hence, the present findings might bring new insight into the therapeutic implication in CHIKV disease biology.

Regulation of Viral Replication, Apoptosis and Pro-Inflammatory Responses by 17-AAG during Chikungunya Virus Infection in Macrophages.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Tapas K; Mamidi, Prabhudutta; Kumar, Abhishek; Singh, Laishram Pradeep K; Sahoo, Subhransu S; Chattopadhyay, Soma; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis

2017-01-06

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection has re-emerged as a major public health concern due to its recent worldwide epidemics and lack of control measures. Although CHIKV is known to infect macrophages, regulation of CHIKV replication, apoptosis and immune responses towards macrophages are not well understood. Accordingly, the Raw264.7 cells, a mouse macrophage cell line, were infected with CHIKV and viral replication as well as new viral progeny release was assessed by flow cytometry and plaque assay, respectively. Moreover, host immune modulation and apoptosis were studied through flow cytometry, Western blot and ELISA. Our current findings suggest that expression of CHIKV proteins were maximum at 8 hpi and the release of new viral progenies were remarkably increased around 12 hpi. The induction of Annexin V binding, cleaved caspase-3, cleaved caspase-9 and cleaved caspase-8 in CHIKV infected macrophages suggests activation of apoptosis through both intrinsic and extrinsic pathways. The pro-inflammatory mediators (TNF and IL-6) MHC-I/II and B7.2 (CD86) were also up-regulated during infection over time. Further, 17-AAG, a potential HSP90 inhibitor, was found to regulate CHIKV infection, apoptosis and pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine productions of host macrophages significantly. Hence, the present findings might bring new insight into the therapeutic implication in CHIKV disease biology.

Urbanization and geographic expansion of zoonotic arboviral diseases: mechanisms and potential strategies for prevention.

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Weaver, Scott C

2013-08-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) mainly infect people via direct spillover from enzootic cycles. However, dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses have repeatedly initiated urban transmission cycles involving human amplification and peridomestic mosquito vectors to cause major epidemics. Here, I review these urban emergences and potential strategies for their prevention and control. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the sustainability of individual behavior change against ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ABSTRACT: The island of Mauritius had not experienced any mosquito-borne diseases since the last malaria outbreak in the early 1980s. When the chikungunya fever epidemic affected the island in 2005-2006, the local population was unprepared against this mosquito-borne infection and officially 11, 000 people were ...

Impact of interventions and the incidence of ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsch, Thomas D; Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Goodermote, Rachel; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Lessler, Justin; Cumings, Derek A T; Peters, David H

2017-03-01

To better understand the impact of national and global efforts to contain the Ebola virus disease epidemic of 2014–15 in Liberia, we provide a detailed timeline of the major interventions and relate them to the epidemic curve.  In addition to personal experience in the response, we systematically reviewed situation reports from the Liberian government, UN, CDC, WHO, UNICEF, IFRC, USAID, and local and international news reports to create the timeline. We extracted data on the timing and nature of activities and compared them to the timeline of the epidemic curve using the reproduction number—the estimate of the average number of new cases caused by a single case.  Interventions were organized around five major strategies, with the majority of resources directed to the creation of treatment beds. We conclude that no single intervention stopped the epidemic; rather, the interventions likely had reinforcing effects, and some were less likely than others to have made a major impact. We find that the epidemic’s turning coincided with a reorganization of the response in August–September 2014, the emergence of community leadership in control efforts, and changing beliefs and practices in the population. Ebola Treatment Units were important for Ebola treatment, but the vast majority of these treatment centre beds became available after the epidemic curve began declining. Similarly, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response was launched after the epidemic curve had already turned.  These findings have significant policy implications for future epidemics and suggest that much of the decline in the epidemic curve was driven by critical behaviour changes within local communities, rather than by international efforts that came after the epidemic had turned. Future global interventions in epidemic response should focus on building community capabilities, strengthening local ownership, and dramatically reducing delays in the response.

Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

Epidemic as a natural process.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

2018-05-01

Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama.

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Crawford, Andrew J; Lips, Karen R; Bermingham, Eldredge

2010-08-03

Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing changes in abundance and evolutionary diversity within the amphibian community of El Copé, Panama, following a disease epidemic and mass-mortality event. The epidemic reduced taxonomic, lineage, and phylogenetic diversity similarly. We discovered that 30 species were lost, including five undescribed species, representing 41% of total amphibian lineage diversity in El Copé. These extirpations represented 33% of the evolutionary history of amphibians within the community, and variation in the degree of population loss and decline among species was random with respect to the community phylogeny. Our approach provides a fast, economical, and informative analysis of loss in a community whether measured by species or phylogenetic diversity.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

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Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

2017-10-01

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[History of human epidemic and endemic diseases in the southwest Indian Ocean].

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Gaüzère, B-A; Aubry, P

2013-05-01

Smallpox has been known in the Mascarene Islands since 1729, and in 1898, the vaccinogenic and anti-rabies Institute of Tananarive, the future Pasteur Institute of Madagascar, was created to combat it. Cholera first arrived in the Mascarenes in 1819, but did not affect the Comoros Islands and Madagascar until the current pandemic. Bubonic plague has beset the ports of Madagascar and the Mascarenes since 1898. Girard and Robic developed the anti-plague vaccine in 1931 at the Pasteur Institute of Madagascar. The Mascarenes lost their reputation as Eden when malaria arrived in 1841, and this disease remains prominent in Madagascar and Comoros. Leprosy has been known in La Réunion since 1726 and is still very present in Mayotte, Anjouan, and Madagascar. Leptospirosis is a public health problem, except in Madagascar and the Comoros. Dengue, chikungunya, and Rift Valley fever are also present. HIV/AIDS is not a major concern, except in Mauritius, where it was spread by injection drug use, in the Seychelles and in Madagascar's largest cities. Madagascar is the principal site worldwide of chromoblastomycosis, first described there in 1914.

The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

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Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

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Aníbal E Carbajo

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya by Ae. aegypti in the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models.

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Franke, John E; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2008-12-01

The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.

FAKTOR SOSIODEMOGRAFI DAN LINGKUNGAN YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEJADIAN LUAR BIASA CHIKUNGUNYA DI KELURAHAN CINERE, KECAMATAN LIMO, KOTA DEPOK 2006

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I Made Djaja

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The impact of sosiodemographic and environmental factor on chikungunya outbreaks at Cinere, Limo Sub District, Depok City in 2006. On october 2005, in Depok occured chikungunya outbreaks that attack 200 citizen at Cinere, Limo Sub District, Depok City. This study purpose is to know the impact of sosidemographic and enviromental factor on chikungunya outbreaks at Cinere, Limo Sub District, Depok City. Research design is case control study. The number of case group and control group is 118 patient. Factor studied are education, knowlwdge, house density, age, occupation, sex, mobility, anti-mosquito chemical, existance of mosquito-larva, container, and wire netting. The result of the study suggest that there are three variabels that involved in chikungunya outbreaks, namely education (OR=1,9: 1,12-3,23, age (OR= 2,1: 1,22-3,46, and house density (OR=2,2: 1,25-3,80. Multivariat analysis showed that the most dominant factors are house density, and followed by education. Probability of chikungunya outbreaks is 2,1 for low house density and low education

Functional processing and secretion of Chikungunya virus E1 and E2 glycoproteins in insect cells

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Goldbach Rob W

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a mosquito-borne, arthrogenic Alphavirus that causes large epidemics in Africa, South-East Asia and India. Recently, CHIKV has been transmitted to humans in Southern Europe by invading and now established Asian tiger mosquitoes. To study the processing of envelope proteins E1 and E2 and to develop a CHIKV subunit vaccine, C-terminally his-tagged E1 and E2 envelope glycoproteins were produced at high levels in insect cells with baculovirus vectors using their native signal peptides located in CHIKV 6K and E3, respectively. Results Expression in the presence of either tunicamycin or furin inhibitor showed that a substantial portion of recombinant intracellular E1 and precursor E3E2 was glycosylated, but that a smaller fraction of E3E2 was processed by furin into mature E3 and E2. Deletion of the C-terminal transmembrane domains of E1 and E2 enabled secretion of furin-cleaved, fully processed E1 and E2 subunits, which could then be efficiently purified from cell culture fluid via metal affinity chromatography. Confocal laser scanning microscopy on living baculovirus-infected Sf21 cells revealed that full-length E1 and E2 translocated to the plasma membrane, suggesting similar posttranslational processing of E1 and E2, as in a natural CHIKV infection. Baculovirus-directed expression of E1 displayed fusogenic activity as concluded from syncytia formation. CHIKV-E2 was able to induce neutralizing antibodies in rabbits. Conclusions Chikungunya virus glycoproteins could be functionally expressed at high levels in insect cells and are properly glycosylated and cleaved by furin. The ability of purified, secreted CHIKV-E2 to induce neutralizing antibodies in rabbits underscores the potential use of E2 in a subunit vaccine to prevent CHIKV infections.

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Disease load at conception predicts survival in later epidemics in a historical French-Canadian cohort, suggesting functional trans-generational effects in humans.

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Kai Willführ

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Functional trans-generational and parental effects are potentially important determinants of health in several mammals. For humans, the existing evidence is weak. We investigate whether disease exposure triggers functional trans-generational response effects among humans by analyzing siblings who were conceived under different disease loads, and comparing their mortality in later epidemics. Under functional trans-generational response mechanisms, we expect that those who were conceived under high pathogenic stress load will have relatively low mortality during a later epidemic. METHODS: We use data from the Registre de la Population du Québec Ancien, which covers the historical population living in St. Lawrence Valley, Québec, Canada. Children born in 1705-1724 were grouped according to their exposure during conception to the measles 1714-15 epidemic. The 1714-15 epidemic was followed by two mortality crises in 1729-1734. The cause of the first crises in 1729 is not exactly known. The second crisis in 1732 was caused by a smallpox epidemic. Using proportional hazard Cox regression models with multivariate adjustment and with fixed-effects approach that compare siblings, we analyze whether mortality in 1729-1734 is affected by exposure to the 1714-15 epidemic. RESULTS: Children who were conceived during the peak of the measles epidemic of 1714-15 exhibited significantly lower mortality during the 1729-1734 crisis than those who were born before the 1714-15 epidemic (mortality hazard ratio 0.106, p<.05 in multivariate adjusted models; 0.142 p<.1 in sibling comparison models. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with a trans-generational mechanism that functionally responds to pathogen stress and suggest that early disease exposure may be protective later in life. Alternative explanations for the mortality patterns are discussed and shown to be problematic.

Clinical Features and Neurologic Complications of Children Hospitalized With Chikungunya Virus in Honduras.

Science.gov (United States)

Samra, José A; Hagood, Nancy L; Summer, Andrea; Medina, Marco T; Holden, Kenton R

2017-07-01

The first case of Chikungunya virus in Honduras was identified in 2014. The virus has spread widely across Honduras via the Aedes aegypti mosquito, leading to an outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 2015 that significantly impacted children. A retrospective chart review of 235 children diagnosed with CHIKV and admitted to the National Autonomous University of Honduras Hospital Escuela (Hospital Escuela) in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, was accomplished with patients who were assessed for clinical features and neurologic complications. Of 235 children admitted to Hospital Escuela with CHIKV, the majority had symptoms of fever, generalized erythematous rash, and irritability. Fourteen percent had clinical arthritis. Ten percent of patients had seizures. Six percent had meningoencephalitis. There were 2 childhood deaths during the course of this study, one from meningoencephalitis and another from myocarditis. Chikungunya virus can cause severe complications in children, the majority of which impact the central nervous system.

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

[Post-Lyme disease syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Błaut-Jurkowska, Justyna; Jurkowski, Marcin

2016-02-01

Lyme disease is a chronic infectious disease caused by the bacteria, spirochete of the Borrelia type. Skin, nervous system, musculoskeletal system and heart may be involved in the course of the disease. The prognosis for properly treated Lyme disease is usually good. However, in about 5% of patients so called Post-Lyme disease syndrome (PLSD) develops. It is defined as a syndrome of subjective symptoms persisting despite proper treatment of Borrelia burgdorferi infection. The most common symptoms include: fatigue, muscle and joint pain, and problems with memory and concentration. Pathogenesis of PLDS remains unknown. The differential diagnosis should include neurological, rheumatic and mental diseases. Till now there is no causative treatment of PLDS. In relieving symptom rehabilitation, painkillers, anti-inflammatory and antidepressants medicines are recommended. Emotional and psychological supports are also necessary. Non-specific symptoms reported by patients with post- Lyme disease syndrome raise the suspicion of other pathologies. This can lead to misdiagnosis and implementation of unnecessary, potentially harmful to the patient's therapy. An increase in tick-borne diseases needs to increase physicians awareness of these issues. © 2016 MEDPRESS.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

Glyphosate, Hard Water and Nephrotoxic Metals: Are They the Culprits Behind the Epidemic of Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology in Sri Lanka?

Science.gov (United States)

Jayasumana, Channa; Gunatilake, Sarath; Senanayake, Priyantha

2014-01-01

The current chronic kidney disease epidemic, the major health issue in the rice paddy farming areas in Sri Lanka has been the subject of many scientific and political debates over the last decade. Although there is no agreement among scientists about the etiology of the disease, a majority of them has concluded that this is a toxic nephropathy. None of the hypotheses put forward so far could explain coherently the totality of clinical, biochemical, histopathological findings, and the unique geographical distribution of the disease and its appearance in the mid-1990s. A strong association between the consumption of hard water and the occurrence of this special kidney disease has been observed, but the relationship has not been explained consistently. Here, we have hypothesized the association of using glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide in the disease endemic area and its unique metal chelating properties. The possible role played by glyphosate-metal complexes in this epidemic has not been given any serious consideration by investigators for the last two decades. Furthermore, it may explain similar kidney disease epidemics observed in Andra Pradesh (India) and Central America. Although glyphosate alone does not cause an epidemic of chronic kidney disease, it seems to have acquired the ability to destroy the renal tissues of thousands of farmers when it forms complexes with a localized geo environmental factor (hardness) and nephrotoxic metals. PMID:24562182

Identification of chikungunya virus interacting proteins in mammalian ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2014-05-01

May 1, 2014 ... Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus transmitted by. Aedes mosquitoes .... Knockdown of HSP70 (NM_005346, X70684) and STAT-2 ... Large scale endotoxin free plasmids were ... Biosystems, USA) using power SYBR Green I technology .... At 12 h p.i., pre-incubation with higher concentration of.

Tenosinovitis por virus Chikungunya

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Alfredo Seijo

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Se presenta a la consulta un hombre proveniente de la República Dominicana con una tenosinovitis del extensor del dedo medio derecho; en la convalecencia inmediata, segunda curva febril luego de 48 horas de permanecer asintomático de una enfermedad febril aguda, y marcada astenia, exantema pruriginoso, poliartralgias con impotencia funcional y rigidez articular generalizada. Los exámenes bioquímicos no aportaron datos de interés para el diagnóstico. La serología para virus dengue fue negativa. La detección de IgM y de anticuerpos neutralizantes para virus Chikungunya (CHIKV fueron positivos.

Risk Factors for the Presence of Chikungunya and Dengue Vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), Their Altitudinal Distribution and Climatic Determinants of Their Abundance in Central Nepal

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Dhimal, Meghnath; Gautam, Ishan; Joshi, Hari Datt; O’Hara, Robert B.; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal. Methodology/Principal Findings We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to

Specific management of post-chikungunya rheumatic disorders: a retrospective study of 159 cases in Reunion Island from 2006-2012.

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Emilie Javelle

2015-03-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since 2003, the tropical arthritogenic chikungunya (CHIK virus has become an increasingly medical and economic burden in affected areas as it can often result in long-term disabilities. The clinical spectrum of post-CHIK (pCHIK rheumatic disorders is wide. Evidence-based recommendations are needed to help physicians manage the treatment of afflicted patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a 6-year case series retrospective study in Reunion Island of patients referred to a rheumatologist due to continuous rheumatic or musculoskeletal pains that persisted following CHIK infection. These various disorders were documented in terms of their clinical and therapeutic courses. Post-CHIK de novo chronic inflammatory rheumatisms (CIRs were identified according to validated criteria. RESULTS: We reviewed 159 patient medical files. Ninety-four patients (59% who were free of any articular disorder prior to CHIK met the CIR criteria: rheumatoid arthritis (n=40, spondyloarthritis (n=33, undifferentiated polyarthritis (n=21. Bone lesions detectable by radiography occurred in half of the patients (median time: 3.5 years pCHIK. A positive therapeutic response was achieved in 54 out of the 72 patients (75% who were treated with methotrexate (MTX. Twelve out of the 92 patients (13% received immunomodulatory biologic agents due to failure of contra-indication of MTX treatment. Other patients mainly presented with mechanical shoulder or knee disorders, bilateral distal polyarthralgia that was frequently associated with oedema at the extremities and tunnel syndromes. These pCHIK musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs were managed with pain-killers, local and/or general anti-inflammatory drugs, and physiotherapy. CONCLUSION: Rheumatologists in Reunion Island managed CHIK rheumatic disorders in a pragmatic manner following the outbreak in 2006. This retrospective study describes the common mechanical and inflammatory pCHIK disorders. We provide a diagnostic

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Phenotypic and functional analyses of NK and NKT-like populations during the early stages of chikungunya infection.

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Thanapati, Subrat; Das, Rumki; Tripathy, Anuradha S

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to characterize NK (CD56(+)CD3(-)) and NKT-like cell (CD56(+)CD3(+)) responses early after chikungunya infection. Expression profiling and functional analysis of T/NK/NKT-like cells were performed on samples from 56 acute and 31 convalescent chikungunya patients and 56 control individuals. The percentages of NK cells were high in both patient groups, whereas NKT-like cell percentages were high only in the convalescent group. The percentages of NKp30(+)CD3(-)CD56(+), NKp30(+)CD3(+)CD56(+), CD244(+)CD3(-)CD56(+), and CD244(+)CD3(+)CD56(+)cells were high, whereas the percentages of NKG2D(+)CD3(-)CD56(+) and NKG2D(+)CD3(+)CD56(+)cells were low in both patient groups. The percentages of NKp44(+)CD3(-)CD56(+) cells were high in both patient groups, whereas the percentages of NKp44(+)CD3(+)CD56(+) cells were higher in the acute group than in convalescent and control groups. The percentages of NKp46(+)CD3(-)CD56(+) cells were high in both patient groups. Higher percentages of perforin(+)CD3(-)CD56(+) and perforin(+)CD3(+)CD56(+) cells were observed in acute and convalescent patients, respectively. Higher cytotoxic activity was observed in acute patients than in controls. IFN-γ expression on NK cells of convalescent patients and on NKT-like cells of both patient groups was indicative of the regulatory role of NK and NKT-like cells. Collectively, these data showed that higher expression of activating receptors on NK/NKT-like cells and perforin(+) NK cells in acute patients could be responsible for increased cytotoxicity. The observed expression of perforin(+) NK cells in the acute phase and IFN-γ(+) NKT-like cells in the subsequent convalescent stage showed that NK/NKT-like cells mount an early and efficient response to chikungunya virus. Further study of the molecular mechanisms that limit viral dissemination/establishment of chronic disease will aid in understanding how NK/NKT-like cells control chikungunya infection.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

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Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

2016-08-01

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

Stability and disease persistence in an age-structured SIS epidemic model with vertical transmission and proportionate mixing assumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Doma, M.

2001-02-01

The stability of the endemic equilibrium of an SIS age-structured epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the force of infection is of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also investigate the uniform weak disease persistence. (author)

Analysis of the epidemiological dynamics during the 1982-1983 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark based on molecular high-resolution strain identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Laurids Siig; Normann, Preben; Thykier-Nielsen, Søren

2005-01-01

An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causing a total of 23 cases in 1982-1983, primarily on the island of Funen, Denmark, was subjected to molecular epidemiological investigations. In an attempt to exploit the quasi-species nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains for molecular high......-resolution strain identification in order to analyse the dynamics of this epidemic, full-length VP1 coding regions were sequenced for 17 isolates collected at different farms during the epidemic. The sequence information together with epidemiological information gathered during the epidemic suggests......, and the prerequisite of co- or superinfection of animals with variant strains in turn implies that they have a common source or epidemiologically related sources originating from an area with endemic FMD....

Zoonoses, epidemics and the concept “one health”

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José A. Oteo

2017-05-01

Full Text Available It is not easy to write an editorial and provide useful knowledge on such varied topics of vector-borne diseases (BVD as infections of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, hantavirus, arenavirus; Tick-borne infections such as anaplasmosis, rickettsiosis and erlichiosis, as well as parasitic diseases such as leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis. In the literature about it, there are rivers of ink written, and putting order in one or two pages would be very bold. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the emergent and re-emerging character in which the BVDs are also framed and how the phenomena associated with globalization collaborate in its expansion and resurgence.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

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Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

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Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

2014-03-01

This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

Vector Competence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes polynesiensis Populations from French Polynesia for Chikungunya Virus.

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Vaea Richard

2016-05-01

Full Text Available From October 2014 to March 2015, French Polynesia experienced for the first time a chikungunya outbreak. Two Aedes mosquitoes may have contributed to chikungunya virus (CHIKV transmission in French Polynesia: the worldwide distributed Ae. aegypti and the Polynesian islands-endemic Ae. polynesiensis mosquito.To investigate the vector competence of French Polynesian populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. polynesiensis for CHIKV, mosquitoes were exposed per os at viral titers of 7 logs tissue culture infectious dose 50%. At 2, 6, 9, 14 and 21 days post-infection (dpi, saliva was collected from each mosquito and inoculated onto C6/36 mosquito cells to check for the presence of CHIKV infectious particles. Legs and body (thorax and abdomen of each mosquito were also collected at the different dpi and submitted separately to viral RNA extraction and CHIKV real-time RT-PCR.CHIKV infection rate, dissemination and transmission efficiencies ranged from 7-90%, 18-78% and 5-53% respectively for Ae. aegypti and from 39-41%, 3-17% and 0-14% respectively for Ae. polynesiensis, depending on the dpi. Infectious saliva was found as early as 2 dpi for Ae. aegypti and from 6 dpi for Ae. polynesiensis. Our laboratory results confirm that the French Polynesian population of Ae. aegypti is highly competent for CHIKV and they provide clear evidence for Ae. polynesiensis to act as an efficient CHIKV vector.As supported by our findings, the presence of two CHIKV competent vectors in French Polynesia certainly contributed to enabling this virus to quickly disseminate from the urban/peri-urban areas colonized by Ae. aegypti to the most remote atolls where Ae. polynesiensis is predominating. Ae. polynesiensis was probably involved in the recent chikungunya outbreaks in Samoa and the Cook Islands. Moreover, this vector may contribute to the risk for CHIKV to emerge in other Polynesian islands like Fiji, and more particularly Wallis where there is no Ae. aegypti.

The development of a massive open online course during the 2014-15 Ebola virus disease epidemic.

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Evans, Dabney P; Luffy, Samantha M; Parisi, Stephanie; Del Rio, Carlos

2017-09-01

Timely training was urgently needed at the onset of the 2014 Ebola virus disease epidemic. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have grown in popularity, though little is known about their utility in time-sensitive situations, including infectious disease outbreaks. We created the first English language massive open online course on Ebola virus disease. Designed by a team representing various units of Emory University and six partner institutions, the six module course was aimed at a global general audience but also relevant for health care professionals. Over 7,000 learners from 170 countries participated in the initial course offering. More than a third of learners were from emerging economies, including seven percent from Africa, and another 13% from countries outside the United States who received individuals requiring treatment for Ebola virus disease. Creating and producing the first English language MOOC on EVD in a short time period required effective collaboration and strong coordination between subject matter and course development experts from Emory. Through these collaborative efforts, the development team was able to provide urgently needed training and educational materials while the epidemic of EVD continued to radiate through West Africa. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alzheimer Disease and Its Growing Epidemic: Risk Factors, Biomarkers, and the Urgent Need for Therapeutics.

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Hickman, Richard A; Faustin, Arline; Wisniewski, Thomas

2016-11-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) represents one of the greatest medical challenges of this century; the condition is becoming increasingly prevalent worldwide and no effective treatments have been developed for this terminal disease. Because the disease manifests at a late stage after a long period of clinically silent neurodegeneration, knowledge of the modifiable risk factors and the implementation of biomarkers is crucial in the primary prevention of the disease and presymptomatic detection of AD, respectively. This article discusses the growing epidemic of AD and antecedent risk factors in the disease process. Disease biomarkers are discussed, and the implications that this may have for the treatment of this currently incurable disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

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Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

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Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

2016-10-01

SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial statistical analysis of basal stem root disease under natural field epidemic of oil palm

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Kamu, Assis; Phin, Chong Khim; Seman, Idris Abu; Wan, Hoong Hak; Mun, Ho Chong

2015-02-01

Oil palm or scientifically known as Elaeis guineensis Jacq. is the most important commodity crop in Malaysia and has greatly contributed to the economy growth of the country. As far as disease is concerned in the industry, Basal Stem Rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninence remains the most important disease. BSR disease is the most widely studied with information available for oil palm disease in Malaysia. However, there is still limited study on the spatial as well as temporal pattern or distribution of the disease especially under natural field epidemic condition in oil palm plantation. The objective of this study is to spatially identify the pattern of BSR disease under natural field epidemic using two geospatial analytical techniques, which are quadrat analysis for the first order properties of partial pattern analysis and nearest-neighbor analysis (NNA) for the second order properties of partial pattern analysis. Two study sites were selected with different age of tree. Both sites are located in Tawau, Sabah and managed by the same company. The results showed that at least one of the point pattern analysis used which is NNA (i.e. the second order properties of partial pattern analysis) has confirmed the disease is complete spatial randomness. This suggests the spread of the disease is not from tree to tree and the age of palm does not play a significance role in determining the spatial pattern of the disease. From the spatial pattern of the disease, it would help in the disease management program and for the industry in the future. The statistical modelling is expected to help in identifying the right model to estimate the yield loss of oil palm due to BSR disease in the future.

Guillain-Barre syndrome complicating chikungunya virus infection.

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Agarwal, Ayush; Vibha, Deepti; Srivastava, Achal Kumar; Shukla, Garima; Prasad, Kameshwar

2017-06-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus which presents with symptoms of fever, rash, arthralgia, and occasional neurologic disease. While outbreaks have been earlier reported from India and other parts of the world, the recent outbreak in India witnessed more than 1000 cases. Various systemic and rarely neurological complications have been reported with CHIKV. We report two cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) with CHIKV. GBS is a rare neurological complication which may occur after subsidence of fever and constitutional symptoms by several neurotropic viruses. We describe two cases of severe GBS which presented with rapidly progressive flaccid quadriparesis progressing to difficulty in swallowing and breathing. Both required mechanical ventilation and improved partly with plasmapharesis. The cases emphasize on (1) description of the rare complication in a setting of outbreak with CHIKV, (2) acute axonal as well as demyelinating neuropathy may occur with CHIKV, (3) accurate identification of this entity during outbreaks with dengue, both of which are vector borne and may present with similar complications.

Summer epidemics of apple scab : The relationship between measurements and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels under different disease control regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holb, I.J.; Heijne, B.; Jeger, M.J.

2003-01-01

A 2-year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well-described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease

Post-traumatic stress disorder and cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Edmondson, Donald; von Känel, Roland

2017-04-01

In this paper, a first in a Series of two, we look at the evidence for an association of post-traumatic stress disorder with incident cardiovascular disease risk and the mechanisms that might cause this association, as well as the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder due to cardiovascular disease events and its associated prognostic risk. We discuss research done after the publication of previous relevant systematic reviews, and survey currently funded research from the two most active funders in the field: the National Institutes of Health and the US Veterans Administration. We conclude that post-traumatic stress disorder is a risk factor for incident cardiovascular disease, and a common psychiatric consequence of cardiovascular disease events that might worsen the prognosis of the cardiovascular disease. There are many candidate mechanisms for the link between post-traumatic stress disorder and cardiovascular disease, and several ongoing studies could soon point to the most important behavioural and physiological mechanisms to target in early phase intervention development. Similarly, targets are emerging for individual and environmental interventions that might offset the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder after cardiovascular disease events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to analytically characterize the epidemic threshold within the coupled disease-behavior systems?. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

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Xia, Cheng-Yi; Ding, Shuai; Sun, Shi-Wen; Wang, Li; Gao, Zhong-Ke; Wang, Juan

2015-12-01

As is well known, outbreak of epidemics may drive the human population to take some necessary measures to protect themselves from not being infected by infective ones, these precautions in turn will also keep from the further spreading of infectious diseases among the population. Thus, to fully comprehend the epidemic spreading behavior within real-world systems, the interplay between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics needs to be considered simultaneously, such that some effective containment-measures can be successfully developed [1-3].

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

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Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

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Brauer Fred

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

2014-01-01

Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

2016-01-01

The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

A mouse model for Chikungunya: young age and inefficient type-I interferon signaling are risk factors for severe disease.

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Thérèse Couderc

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a re-emerging arbovirus responsible for a massive outbreak currently afflicting the Indian Ocean region and India. Infection from CHIKV typically induces a mild disease in humans, characterized by fever, myalgia, arthralgia, and rash. Cases of severe CHIKV infection involving the central nervous system (CNS have recently been described in neonates as well as in adults with underlying conditions. The pathophysiology of CHIKV infection and the basis for disease severity are unknown. To address these critical issues, we have developed an animal model of CHIKV infection. We show here that whereas wild type (WT adult mice are resistant to CHIKV infection, WT mouse neonates are susceptible and neonatal disease severity is age-dependent. Adult mice with a partially (IFN-alpha/betaR(+/- or totally (IFN-alpha/betaR(-/- abrogated type-I IFN pathway develop a mild or severe infection, respectively. In mice with a mild infection, after a burst of viral replication in the liver, CHIKV primarily targets muscle, joint, and skin fibroblasts, a cell and tissue tropism similar to that observed in biopsy samples of CHIKV-infected humans. In case of severe infections, CHIKV also disseminates to other tissues including the CNS, where it specifically targets the choroid plexuses and the leptomeninges. Together, these data indicate that CHIKV-associated symptoms match viral tissue and cell tropisms, and demonstrate that the fibroblast is a predominant target cell of CHIKV. These data also identify the neonatal phase and inefficient type-I IFN signaling as risk factors for severe CHIKV-associated disease. The development of a permissive small animal model will expedite the testing of future vaccines and therapeutic candidates.

Seroprevalence of Infections with Dengue, Rift Valley Fever and Chikungunya Viruses in Kenya, 2007.

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Caroline Ochieng

Full Text Available Arthropod-borne viruses are a major constituent of emerging infectious diseases worldwide, but limited data are available on the prevalence, distribution, and risk factors for transmission in Kenya and East Africa. In this study, we used 1,091 HIV-negative blood specimens from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2007 to test for the presence of IgG antibodies to dengue virus (DENV, chikungunya virus (CHIKV and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV.The KAIS 2007 was a national population-based survey conducted by the Government of Kenya to provide comprehensive information needed to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Antibody testing for arboviruses was performed on stored blood specimens from KAIS 2007 through a two-step sandwich IgG ELISA using either commercially available kits or CDC-developed assays. Out of the 1,091 samples tested, 210 (19.2% were positive for IgG antibodies against at least one of the three arboviruses. DENV was the most common of the three viruses tested (12.5% positive, followed by RVFV and CHIKV (4.5% and 0.97%, respectively. For DENV and RVFV, the participant's province of residence was significantly associated (P≤.01 with seropositivity. Seroprevalence of DENV and RVFV increased with age, while there was no correlation between province of residence/age and seropositivity for CHIKV. Females had twelve times higher odds of exposure to CHIK as opposed to DENV and RVFV where both males and females had the same odds of exposure. Lack of education was significantly associated with a higher odds of previous infection with either DENV or RVFV (p <0.01. These data show that a number of people are at risk of arbovirus infections depending on their geographic location in Kenya and transmission of these pathogens is greater than previously appreciated. This poses a public health risk, especially for DENV.

Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

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Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-07

Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Obesity Epidemic

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2011-07-18

Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

Curcumin and Boswellia serrata gum resin extract inhibit chikungunya and vesicular stomatitis virus infections in vitro.

Science.gov (United States)

von Rhein, Christine; Weidner, Tatjana; Henß, Lisa; Martin, Judith; Weber, Christopher; Sliva, Katja; Schnierle, Barbara S

2016-01-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-transmitted alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever and has infected millions of people mainly in developing countries. The associated disease is characterized by rash, high fever, and severe arthritis that can persist for years. CHIKV has adapted to Aedes albopictus, which also inhabits temperate regions including Europe and the United States of America. CHIKV has recently caused large outbreaks in Latin America. No treatment or licensed CHIKV vaccine exists. Traditional medicines are known to have anti-viral effects; therefore, we examined whether curcumin or Boswellia serrata gum resin extract have antiviral activity against CHIKV. Both compounds blocked entry of CHIKV Env-pseudotyped lentiviral vectors and inhibited CHIKV infection in vitro. In addition, vesicular stomatitis virus vector particles and viral infections were also inhibited to the same extent, indicating a broad antiviral activity. Although the bioavailability of these compounds is rather poor, they might be used as a lead structure to develop more effective antiviral drugs or might be used topically to prevent CHIKV spread in the skin after mosquito bites. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Liu

Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gloster, J.; Freshwater, A.; Sellers, R.F.

2005-01-01

The likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 epidemic is re-assessed in the light of current understanding of airborne disease spread. The findings strongly confirm those made at the time that airborne virus was the most likely cause of the rapid early...... development of the disease out to 60 km from the source. This conclusion is reached following a detailed epidemiological, meteorological and modelling study using original records and current modelling techniques. The role played by 'lee waves' as the mechanism for the spread is investigated. It is thought...... that they played little part in influencing the development of the epidemic. A number of lessons learned from the work are drawn, identifying the need for further research on the quantity and characteristics I of airborne virus. The results are also used to illustrate what advice would have been available...

The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

.... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

Science.gov (United States)

Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

2018-04-01

Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Co-infections with Chikungunya and Dengue Viruses, Guatemala, 2015.

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Edwards, Thomas; Signor, Leticia Del Carmen Castillo; Williams, Christopher; Donis, Evelin; Cuevas, Luis E; Adams, Emily R

2016-11-01

We screened serum samples referred to the national reference laboratory in Guatemala that were positive for chikungunya or dengue viruses in June 2015. Co-infection with both viruses was detected by reverse transcription PCR in 46 (32%) of 144 samples. Specimens should be tested for both arboviruses to detect co-infections.

Miltefosine inhibits Chikungunya virus replication in human primary dermal fibroblasts [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

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Anuj Sharma

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV is a re-emerging pathogen that has caused widespread outbreaks affecting millions of people around the globe. Currently, there is no specific therapeutic drug against CHIKV, with symptomatic treatment only to manage the disease. Pi3-akt signaling has been implicated in infection of several viruses including that of CHIKV. Effect of Pi3-akt signaling inhibitors on CHIKV replication was evaluated in this study. Methods: Human primary dermal fibroblast cells were treated with inhibitors of the Pi3-akt signaling pathway. Suppression of CHIKV replication was evaluated as reduction in virus titer in cell supernatants. Effect of miltefosine (MF on CHIKV replication was evaluated in pre and post treatment regimen. Inhibition of virus replication was determined by cell growth, virus titer and western blot. Results: Inhibition of Akt-phosphorylation significantly inhibited CHIKV replication. No effect on CHIKV replication was observed after treatment with Pi3-kinase and mTOR activation inhibitors. Further, MF, an FDA-approved Akt-inhibitor, inhibited CHIKV replication in pre- and post-infection treatment regimens. Conclusion: Data suggests that Akt-phosphorylation can be an amenable target of therapy against CHIKV infection. This is the first study to show inhibition of CHIKV replication by MF, and presents a case for further development of MF as an anti-CHIKV drug.

Serosurveillance of wild deer and wild boar after the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elbers, A.R.W.; Dekker, A.; Dekkers, L.J.M.

2003-01-01

Blood samples from 140 wild deer and 208 wild boar shot in the aftermath of the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001 were examined for antibodies to foot-and-mouth disease virus. They were all negative

Zika virus: Can India win the fight?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tulika Singh

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Zika virus is an emerging arbovirus of public health importance transmitted by Aedes mosquito which also transmits dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. The disease has been spreading at an alarming rate in Africa, Pacific Islands, and the Americas. Given the expansion of environments where mosquitoes can live and breed, facilitated by urbanization and globalization, there is potential for major urban epidemics of Zika virus disease to occur globally. World Health Organization (WHO has declared Zika virus disease to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC. Our failed attempts to control dengue epidemics in the past call for concern and we need to be to prepared to fight Zika virus before it arrives at our doors.

Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Wan

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

Are we prepared for emerging and re-emerging diseases? Experience and lessons from epidemics that occurred in Tanzania during the last five decades.

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Karimuribo, Esron D; Mboera, Leonard E G; Mbugi, Erasto; Simba, Azma; Kivaria, Fredrick M; Mmbuji, Peter; Rweyemamu, Mark M

2011-12-01

This paper reviews preparedness for containing and controlling emerging and re-emerging diseases drawing lessons from disease events that occurred in animal and human populations in the last five decades (1961-2011). A comprehensive analysis based on retrieval and analysis of grey and published literature as well as reported cases was carried out to document type and trend of occurrence of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in different parts of Tanzania. Overall, the majority of diseases reported in the country were viral in nature followed by bacterial diseases. The trend for the occurrence shows a number of new emerging diseases as well as re-occurrence of old diseases in both animal (domestic and wild) and human populations. In humans, the major disease epidemics reported in the last five decades include cholera, influenza A H1N1, plague and rubella. In animals, the major epidemic diseases reported were Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Peste des petits ruminants and Giraffe Ear and Skin Diseases. Some epidemics have been reported in both human and animal populations including Rift Valley fever and anthrax. The emergence of the 'fit-for purpose' approaches and technologies such as the discipline of One Health, use of participatory epidemiology and disease surveillance and mobile technologies offers opportunity for optimal use of limited resources to improve early detection, diagnosis and response to disease events and consequently reduced impact of such diseases in animal and human populations.

[Difficulties in the epidemiological surveillance of measles in Africa: exemplified by the Ivory Coast].

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, J L; Trolet, C; Soro, B; Cunin, P; Merouze, F

1991-06-01

In tropical areas measles cases often are under-reported but the authors comment here two epidemics which had at first been considered as outbreaks of measles but were not. The first epidemic resembled a Chikungunya virus outbreak with important rashes, hyperthermia and pain attacks and was due to Igbo-Ora arbovirus. In the second epidemic children were having rashes with hyperthermia and adenopathy evoking rubella. The authors consider the possibility of over-reporting in view of the surveillance of measles, the target-disease in EPI (Expanded Programme on Immunization). This hypothesis is confirmed by the distribution of reported cases at national level with a high rate of out-season cases and among adults.

Reptiles and Amphibians as Potential Reservoir Hosts of Chikungunya Virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosco-Lauth, Angela M; Hartwig, Airn E; Bowen, Richard A

2018-03-01

Chikungunya virus is an emerging arbovirus of significant human-health concern. Little is known about its sylvatic cycle, including whether ectothermic vertebrates are permissive to infection. In this study, individuals from ten species of reptiles and amphibians were inoculated with chikungunya virus and samples of blood were tested to characterize viremia and seroconversion. Viremia was not detected in cane toads, house geckos, or American alligators, but most of the green iguanas, red-eared sliders, ball and Burmese pythons, leopard frogs, Texas toads, and garter snakes developed viremia. Peak virus titers in serum of up to 4.5, 4.7, and 5.1 log 10 plaque-forming units per milliliter were observed for garter snakes, ball pythons, and Texas toads, respectively. These results add to those of other studies that have suggested a possible role for ectothermic vertebrates in the ecology of arbovirus maintenance and transmission in nature.

[Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

Science.gov (United States)

Frøland, Anders

2015-01-01

The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

2014-11-21

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

2014-03-01

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

Chikungunya Virus Infection of Aedes Mosquitoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Hui Vern; Chan, Yoke Fun; Sam, I-Ching; Sulaiman, Wan Yusof Wan; Vythilingam, Indra

2016-01-01

In vivo infection of mosquitoes is an important method to study and characterize arthropod-borne viruses. Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that is transmitted primarily by Aedes mosquitoes. In this chapter, we describe a protocol for infection of CHIKV in two species of Aedes mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, together with the isolation of CHIKV in different parts of the infected mosquito such as midgut, legs, wings, salivary gland, head, and saliva. This allows the study of viral infection, replication and dissemination within the mosquito vector.

Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

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Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2013-01-21

The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Differential protein modulation in midguts of Aedes aegypti infected with chikungunya and dengue 2 viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Tchankouo-Nguetcheu, Stéphane; Khun, Huot; Pincet, Laurence; Roux, Pascal; Bahut, Muriel; Huerre, Michel; Guette, Catherine; Choumet, Valérie

2010-10-05

Arthropod borne virus infections cause several emerging and resurgent infectious diseases. Among the diseases caused by arboviruses, dengue and chikungunya are responsible for a high rate of severe human diseases worldwide. The midgut of mosquitoes is the first barrier for pathogen transmission and is a target organ where arboviruses must replicate prior to infecting other organs. A proteomic approach was undertaken to characterize the key virus/vector interactions and host protein modifications that happen in the midgut for viral transmission to eventually take place. Using a proteomics differential approach with two-Dimensional Differential in-Gel Electrophoresis (2D-DIGE), we defined the protein modulations in the midgut of Aedes aegypti that were triggered seven days after an oral infection (7 DPI) with dengue 2 (DENV-2) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses. Gel profile comparisons showed that the level of 18 proteins was modulated by DENV-2 only and 12 proteins were modulated by CHIKV only. Twenty proteins were regulated by both viruses in either similar or different ways. Both viruses caused an increase of proteins involved in the generation of reactive oxygen species, energy production, and carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. Midgut infection by DENV-2 and CHIKV triggered an antioxidant response. CHIKV infection produced an increase of proteins involved in detoxification. Our study constitutes the first analysis of the protein response of Aedes aegypti's midgut infected with viruses belonging to different families. It shows that the differentially regulated proteins in response to viral infection include structural, redox, regulatory proteins, and enzymes for several metabolic pathways. Some of these proteins like antioxidant are probably involved in cell protection. On the other hand, we propose that the modulation of other proteins like transferrin, hsp60 and alpha glucosidase, may favour virus survival, replication and transmission, suggesting a subversion of

Infection by chikungunya virus modulates the expression of several proteins in Aedes aegypti salivary glands

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Tchankouo-Nguetcheu Stephane

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Arthropod-borne viral infections cause several emerging and resurging infectious diseases. Among the diseases caused by arboviruses, chikungunya is responsible for a high level of severe human disease worldwide. The salivary glands of mosquitoes are the last barrier before pathogen transmission. Methods We undertook a proteomic approach to characterize the key virus/vector interactions and host protein modifications that occur in the salivary glands that could be responsible for viral transmission by using quantitative two-dimensional electrophoresis. Results We defined the protein modulations in the salivary glands of Aedes aegypti that were triggered 3 and 5 days after an oral infection (3 and 5 DPI with chikungunya virus (CHIKV. Gel profile comparisons showed that CHIKV at 3 DPI modulated the level of 13 proteins, and at 5 DPI 20 proteins. The amount of 10 putatively secreted proteins was regulated at both time points. These proteins were implicated in blood-feeding or in immunity, but many have no known function. CHIKV also modulated the quantity of proteins involved in several metabolic pathways and in cell signalling. Conclusion Our study constitutes the first analysis of the protein response of Aedes aegypti salivary glands infected with CHIKV. We found that the differentially regulated proteins in response to viral infection include structural proteins and enzymes for several metabolic pathways. Some may favour virus survival, replication and transmission, suggesting a subversion of the insect cell metabolism by arboviruses. For example, proteins involved in blood-feeding such as the short D7, an adenosine deaminase and inosine-uridine preferring nucleoside hydrolase, may favour virus transmission by exerting an increased anti-inflammatory effect. This would allow the vector to bite without the bite being detected. Other proteins, like the anti-freeze protein, may support vector protection.

The Convergence of a Virus, Mosquitoes, and Human Travel in Globalizing the Zika Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Imperato, Pascal James

2016-06-01

Zika virus infection. How the disease entered Brazil is a matter of conjecture. However, the strain responsible for the epidemic in Brazil and elsewhere in South and Central America is phylogenetically identical to that which caused the epidemic in French Polynesia. The wide distribution of Aedes aegypti, a principal vector of the virus, and other Aedes species has greatly facilitated the spread of the disease. Aedes aegypti is an invasive species of mosquito in the Western Hemisphere that has adapted well to densely-populated urban environments. In addition, male-to-female human sexual transmission has increasingly been demonstrated in the US and elsewhere. In February 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current Zika outbreak a Public Health Emergency of international concern. On the recommendation of its Emergency Committee on Zika Virus and Observed Increase in Neurological Disorders and Neonatal Malformations, WHO issued a group of recommendations to contain the epidemic. The globalization of the Zika virus was made possible by the widespread presence in various parts of the world of Aedes vectors and increased human travel that facilitated geographic spread. This globalization of Zika follows upon that of West Nile, Ebola, Dengue, and Chikungunya. Its ultimate spread is difficult to predict, but will hopefully be restricted through vigorous preventive measures.

Intercontinental spread of a genetically distinctive complex of clones of Neisseria meningitidis causing epidemic disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Caugant, D A; Frøholm, L O; Bøvre, K; Holten, E; Frasch, C E; Mocca, L F; Zollinger, W D; Selander, R K

1986-07-01

Strains of Neisseria meningitidis responsible for an epidemic of meningococcal disease occurring in Norway since the mid-1970s and for recent increases in the incidence of disease in several other parts of Europe have been identified by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis as members of a distinctive group of 22 closely related clones (the ET-5 complex). Clones of this complex have also colonized South Africa, Chile, Cuba, and Florida, where they have been identified as the causative agents of recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease. There is strong circumstantial evidence that outbreaks of disease occurring in Miami in 1981 and 1982 were caused in large part by bacteria that reached Florida via human immigrants from Cuba.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

Using climate information to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

Science.gov (United States)

Dommar, C. J.; Lowe, R.; Robinson, M.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

Enfermedad por el virus del Chikungunya: historia y epidemiología

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Acosta-Reyes

2015-01-01

Full Text Available El 9 de diciembre de 2013 la Organización Panamericana de la Salud emitió una alerta epidemiológica debido a la detección de los primeros casos autóctonos de fiebre del Chikun-gunya en el continente americano; desde entonces este se ha convertido en un problema de salud pública. El primer reporte de un brote por el virus del Chikungunya se presentó en 1952-1953 en Tanzania. Las experiencias en epidemias en otros países han centrado la atención en que la presentación clínica no siempre tiene un comportamiento similar. Hasta 2005 todos los reportes mencionaban la presentación de la enfermedad como benigna y con cuadros clínicos bastantes similares, sin embargo, la aparición de epidemias después de ese año en las Islas Reunión y en la India describieron la presencia de cuadros graves, atípicos y un aumento de la mortalidad relacionados con la enfermedad. La región de las Américas debe prepararse para esta nueva epidemia. Esto hace necesario mejorar los conocimientos sobre la enfermedad; y un primer abordaje es a través de una descripción de la historia y epidemiología de la enfermedad por el virus del Chikungunya en el mundo.

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

Mortalidad asociada a infección por el virus de Chikungunya

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Diego Viasus

2015-01-01

Full Text Available La infección por el virus de Chikungunya presenta manifestaciones clínicas típicas: fiebre, erupción cutánea y artralgia. La enfermedad es generalmente autolimitada y de evolución benigna. Las complicaciones graves y la muerte ocurren en raras ocasiones y en pacientes con factores de riesgo, principalmente en aquellos con comorbilidades o que se encuentran en edades extremas de la vida. En este artículo describimos un paciente, sin comorbilidades previas conocidas, con infección por el virus de Chickungunya que progresó rápidamente a disfunción orgánica múltiple y murió luego de 36 horas de su ingreso. Este caso ilustra la dificultad del diagnóstico y el tratamiento de la infección grave por el virus de Chikungunya.

Emerging trends of Zika apprehension in an epidemic setting

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Raude, Jocelyn; Kazanji, Mirdad; Flamand, Claude

2018-01-01

Background French Guiana is a territory that has a decades-long history of dengue outbreaks and more recently, in 2014, a chikungunya outbreak. Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in late 2015 and subsequently led to an important outbreak. Methodology/Principal findings A cross-sectional phone survey was conducted among the general population during the outbreak in June 2016 with a total of 1,129 individuals interviewed to assess perceptions, knowledge and behaviors regarding zika infection. The population seemed aware of zika, and perceived the infection as a more serious health threat than other common mosquito-borne diseases. Furthermore, both the perceptions and behaviors related to zika and its prevention were found to vary considerably among different social groups, geographic areas and gender; less educated female participants were found to perceive the disease as more worrisome and were less likely to adopt protective behaviors. Moreover, female population has been particularly responsive to awareness campaigns and rapidly understood the extent of risks associated with ZIKV infection. Conclusions/Significance These results revealed that ZIKV appeared at the time of the survey as a new health threat that concerns the public more than chikungunya and dengue fever with differences observed among subgroups of population. These results have implications for the development of multifaceted infection control programs, including strategies for prevention and awareness, helping the population to develop an accurate perception of the threat they are facing and encouraging behavior changes. PMID:29370170

[Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

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Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2012-11-01

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

Lifestyle Choices Fuel Epidemics of Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Among Asian Indians.

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O'Keefe, Evan L; DiNicolantonio, James J; Patil, Harshal; Helzberg, John H; Lavie, Carl J

2016-01-01

Within the next 15years, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous nation. Due to the rapid pace of urbanization and modernization fueling population growth, in conjunction with a genetic predisposition to insulin resistance, India is suffering a rising epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and stroke. In addition to the genetic predisposition, major negative lifestyle factors are contributing to the alarming outbreak of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the Asian Indian population; these factors include: 1) a diet high in added sugar, refined grains and other processed foods, 2) physical inactivity, 3) vitamin D deficiency (VDD), and 4) smoking/pollution. These risk factors are all highly modifiable, and steps to improve these issues should be taken urgently to avoid a worsening NCD crisis among the inhabitants of the South Asian subcontinent as well as for people with Asian Indian ethnicity worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

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Omori Ryosuke

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment, assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009 in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak.

Genome variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the short period of the 2010 epidemic in Japan.

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Nishi, Tatsuya; Yamada, Manabu; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Shimada, Nobuaki; Morioka, Kazuki; Yoshida, Kazuo; Sakamoto, Kenichi; Kanno, Toru; Yamakawa, Makoto

2017-02-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate, leading to extensive genetic variation. To investigate how FMDV genetically evolves over a short period of an epidemic after initial introduction into an FMD-free area, whole L-fragment sequences of 104 FMDVs isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan, which continued for less than three months were determined and phylogenetically and comparatively analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis of whole L-fragment sequences showed that these isolates were classified into a single group, indicating that FMDV was introduced into Japan in the epidemic via a single introduction. Nucleotide sequences of 104 virus isolates showed more than 99.56% pairwise identity rates without any genetic deletion or insertion, although no sequences were completely identical with each other. These results indicate that genetic substitutions of FMDV occurred gradually and constantly during the epidemic and generation of an extensive mutant virus could have been prevented by rapid eradication strategy. From comparative analysis of variability of each FMDV protein coding region, VP4 and 2C regions showed the highest average identity rates and invariant rates, and were confirmed as highly conserved. In contrast, the protein coding regions VP2 and VP1 were confirmed to be highly variable regions with the lowest average identity rates and invariant rates, respectively. Our data demonstrate the importance of rapid eradication strategy in an FMD epidemic and provide valuable information on the genome variability of FMDV during the short period of an epidemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemics on interconnected networks

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Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2012-06-01

Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

Mutation of the N-Terminal Region of Chikungunya Virus Capsid Protein: Implications for Vaccine Design.

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Taylor, Adam; Liu, Xiang; Zaid, Ali; Goh, Lucas Y H; Hobson-Peters, Jody; Hall, Roy A; Merits, Andres; Mahalingam, Suresh

2017-02-21

Mosquito-transmitted chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthritogenic alphavirus of the Togaviridae family responsible for frequent outbreaks of arthritic disease in humans. Capsid protein, a structural protein encoded by the CHIKV RNA genome, is able to translocate to the host cell nucleolus. In encephalitic alphaviruses, nuclear translocation induces host cell transcriptional shutoff; however, the role of capsid protein nucleolar localization in arthritogenic alphaviruses remains unclear. Using recombinant enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP)-tagged expression constructs and CHIKV infectious clones, we describe a nucleolar localization sequence (NoLS) in the N-terminal region of capsid protein, previously uncharacterized in CHIKV. Mutation of the NoLS by site-directed mutagenesis reduced efficiency of nuclear import of CHIKV capsid protein. In the virus, mutation of the capsid protein NoLS (CHIKV-NoLS) attenuated replication in mammalian and mosquito cells, producing a small-plaque phenotype. Attenuation of CHIKV-NoLS is likely due to disruption of the viral replication cycle downstream of viral RNA synthesis. In mice, CHIKV-NoLS infection caused no disease signs compared to wild-type CHIKV (CHIKV-WT)-infected mice; lack of disease signs correlated with significantly reduced viremia and decreased expression of proinflammatory factors. Mice immunized with CHIKV-NoLS, challenged with CHIKV-WT at 30 days postimmunization, develop no disease signs and no detectable viremia. Serum from CHIKV-NoLS-immunized mice is able to efficiently neutralize CHIKV infection in vitro Additionally, CHIKV-NoLS-immunized mice challenged with the related alphavirus Ross River virus showed reduced early and peak viremia postchallenge, indicating a cross-protective effect. The high degree of CHIKV-NoLS attenuation may improve CHIKV antiviral and rational vaccine design. IMPORTANCE CHIKV is a mosquito-borne pathogen capable of causing explosive epidemics of incapacitating joint pain

Climate-driven mathematical models to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

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Dommar, Carlos J.; Robinson, Marguerite; Lowe, Rachel; Conan, Anne; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

Chikungunya virus fusion properties elucidated by single-particle and bulk approaches

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Duijl-Richter, Mareike K. S.; Blijleven, Jelle S.; van Oijen, Antoine M.; Smit, Jolanda M.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a rapidly spreading, enveloped alphavirus causing fever, rash and debilitating polyarthritis. No specific treatment or vaccines are available to treat or prevent infection. For the rational design of vaccines and antiviral drugs, it is imperative to understand the

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

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Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

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Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Germany: trends and challenges in the view of disease emergence and climate change.

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Jansen, Andreas; Frank, Christina; Koch, Judith; Stark, Klaus

2008-12-01

The changing epidemiology of vector-borne diseases represents a growing threat to human health. Contemporary surveillance systems have to adapt to these changes. We describe temporal trends and geographic origins of vector-borne diseases in Germany with regard to strengths of existing disease surveillance and to areas marked for improvement. We focused on hantavirus infection (endemic in Germany), chikungunya fever (recently emerging in Europe) and dengue fever (imported from tropical regions), representing important subgroups of vector-borne infections. Routine surveillance data on demographics, origin of infection and the date of reporting were analysed. From 2001 through 2007, 3,005 symptomatic hantavirus infections, and 85 cases of chikungunya fever were reported, similarly 1,048 cases of dengue fever in 2002 through 2007. The geographic origin of hantavirus infection was reported for 95.5% of all cases (dengue virus, 98.4%; chikungunya virus, 100%). Hantavirus infections were acquired in Germany in 97.6% of cases (n = 2800). In 2007, there was a marked increase of hantavirus cases, mainly in areas known to be endemic for hantavirus. In 2006, imported cases of chikungunya fever primarily returned from several islands of the Indian Ocean, while the majority of imported cases in 2007 came from India. The reported number of dengue fever cases have increased since 2004. Thailand contributed the largest proportion of cases (17-43% in individual years), followed by India, Brazil and Indonesia. Surveillance of notifiable vector-borne diseases in Germany is able to timely detect spatial and temporal changes of autochthonous an imported infections. Geographic and temporal data obtained by routine surveillance served as a basis for public health recommendations. In addition to surveillance of vector-borne infections in humans, nationwide monitoring programs and inventory techniques for emerging and reemerging vectors and for wildlife disease are warranted.

Hay fever, a post industrial revolution epidemic: a history of its growth during the 19th century.

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Emanuel, M B

1988-05-01

Although other forms of allergic disease were described in antiquity, hay fever is surprisingly modern. Very rare descriptions can be traced back to Islamic texts of the 9th century and European texts of the 16th century. It was only in the early 19th century that the disease was carefully described and at that time was regarded as most unusual. By the end of the 19th century it had become commonplace in both Europe and North America. This paper attempts to chart the growth of hay fever through the medical literature of the 19th century. It is hoped that an understanding of the increase in prevalence between 1820 and 1900 may provide an insight for modern researchers and give some clues into possible reasons for the epidemic nature of the disease today.

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

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Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2015-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

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Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

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Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

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Wei Gou

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

Chikungunya virus adapts to tiger mosquito via evolutionary convergence: a sign of things to come?

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Higgs Stephen

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Since 2004, several million indigenous cases of Chikungunya virus disease occurred in Africa, the Indian Ocean, India, Asia and, recently, Europe. The virus, usually transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, has now repeatedly been associated with a new vector, Ae. Albopictus. Analysis of full-length viral sequences reveals three independent events of virus exposure to Ae. Albopictus, each followed by the acquisition of a single adaptive mutation providing selective advantage for transmission by this mosquito. This disconcerting and current unique example of "evolutionary convergence" occurring in nature illustrates rapid pathogen adaptation to ecological perturbation, driven directly as a consequence of human activities.

Phylogeny of Dengue and Chikungunya viruses in Al Hudayda governorate, Yemen.

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Ciccozzi, Massimo; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Cella, Eleonora; Giovanetti, Marta; Lai, Alessia; El-Sawaf, Gamal; Faggioni, Giovanni; Vescio, Fenicia; Al Ameri, Ranya; De Santis, Riccardo; Helaly, Ghada; Pomponi, Alice; Metwally, Dalia; Fantini, Massimo; Qadi, Hussein; Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Lista, Florigio; Rezza, Giovanni

2014-10-01

Yemen, which is located in the southwestern end of the Arabian Peninsula, is one of countries most affected by recurrent epidemics caused by emerging vector-borne viruses. Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks have been reported with increasing frequency in several governorates since the year 2000, and the Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has been also responsible of large outbreaks and it is now a major public health problem in Yemen. We report the results of the phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 and CHIKV isolates (NS1 and E1 genes, respectively) detected in an outbreak occurred in Al-Hudayda in 2012. Estimates of the introduction date of CHIKV and DENV-2, and the phylogeographic analysis of DENV-2 are also presented. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yemen isolates of DENV belonged to the lineage 2 Cosmopolitan subtype, whereas CHIKV isolates from Yemen belonged to the ECSA genotype. All the CHIKV isolates from Yemen were statistically supported and dated back to the year 2010 (95% HPD: 2009-2011); these sequences showed an alanine in the aminoacid position 226 of the E1 protein. Phylogeographic analysis of DENV-2 virus showed that cluster 1, which included Yemen isolates, dated back to 2003 Burkina Faso strains (95% HPD 1999-2007). The Yemen, cluster dated back to 2011 (95% HPD 2009-2012). Our study sheds light on the global spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-2 and CHIKV in Yemen. This study reinforces both the need to monitor the spread of CHIKV and DENV, and to apply significant measures for vector control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

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Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

2012-01-01

At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

Increase in cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome during a Chikungunya outbreak, French Polynesia, 2014 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Oehler, Erwan; Fournier, Emmanuel; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Larre, Philippe; Cubizolle, Stéphanie; Sookhareea, Chantal; Lastère, Stéphane; Ghawche, Frédéric

2015-01-01

During the recent chikungunya fever outbreak in French Polynesia in October 2014 to March 2015, we observed an abnormally high number of patients with neurological deficit. Clinical presentation and complementary exams were suggestive of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) for nine patients. All nine had a recent dengue-like syndrome and tested positive for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in serology or RT-PCR. GBS incidence was increased four- to nine-fold during this period, suggesting a link to CHIKV infection.

Seroprevalence of antibodies against chikungunya virus in Singapore resident adult population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ang, Li Wei; Kam, Yiu Wing; Lin, Cui; Krishnan, Prabha Unny; Tay, Joanne; Ng, Lee Ching; James, Lyn; Lee, Vernon J M; Goh, Kee Tai; Ng, Lisa F P; Lin, Raymond T P

2017-12-01

We determined the seroprevalence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection in the adult resident population in Singapore following local outbreaks of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in 2008-2009. Our cross-sectional study involved residual sera from 3,293 adults aged 18-79 years who had participated in the National Health Survey in 2010. Sera were tested for IgG antibodies against CHIKV and dengue virus (DENV) and neutralizing antibodies against CHIKV. The prevalence of CHIKV-neutralizing antibodies among Singapore residents aged 18-79 years was 1.9% (95% confidence interval: 1.4%- 2.3%). The CHIKV seroprevalence was highest in the elderly aged 70-79 years at 11.5%, followed by those aged 30-39 years at 3.1%. Men had significantly higher CHIKV seroprevalence than women (2.5% versus 1.3%, p = 0.01). Among the three main ethnic groups, Indians had the highest seroprevalence (3.5%) compared to Chinese (1.6%) and Malays (0.7%) (p = 0.02 and p = 0.01, respectively). Multivariable logistic regression identified adults aged 30-39 years and 70-79 years, men, those of Indian ethnicity and ethnic minority groups, and residence on ground floor of public and private housing apartments as factors that were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of exposure to CHIKV. The overall prevalence of anti-DENV IgG antibodies was 56.8% (95% CI: 55.1%- 58.5%), while 1.5% (95% CI: 1.1%- 2.0%) of adults possessed both neutralizing antibodies against CHIKV and IgG antibodies against DENV. Singapore remains highly susceptible to CHIKV infection. There is a need to maintain a high degree of vigilance through disease surveillance and vector control. Findings from such serological study, when conducted on a regular periodic basis, could supplement surveillance to provide insights on CHIKV circulation in at-risk population.

An Assessment of Household and Individual-Level Mosquito Prevention Methods during the Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in the United States Virgin Islands, 2014-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Feldstein, Leora R; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Staples, J Erin; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Ellis, Esther M

2018-03-01

Recent large-scale chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus epidemics in the Americas pose a growing public health threat. Given that mosquito bite prevention and vector control are the main prevention methods available to reduce transmission of these viruses, we assessed adherence to these methods in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI). We interviewed 334 USVI residents between December 2014 and February 2015 to measure differences in mosquito prevention practices by gender, income, presence of CHIKV symptoms, and age. Only 27% (91/334) of participants reported having an air conditioner, and of the 91 with air-conditioners, 18 (20%) reported never using it. Annual household income > $50,000 was associated with owning and using an air conditioner (41%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 28-53% compared with annual household income ≤ $50,000: 17%; 95% CI: 12-22%). The majority of participants reported the presence of vegetation in their yard or near their home (79%; 265) and a cistern on their property (78%; 259). Only 52 (16%) participants reported wearing mosquito repellent more than once per week. Although the majority (80%; 268) of participants reported having screens on all of their windows and doors, most (82%; 273) of those interviewed still reported seeing mosquitoes in their homes. Given the uniformly low adherence to individual- and household-level mosquito bite prevention measures in the USVI, these findings emphasize the need for improved public health messaging and investment in therapeutic and vaccine research to mitigate vector-borne disease outbreaks.

Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

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Ming Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

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Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

2007-05-01

Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

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Xiujuan Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

Post-chikungunya chronic inflammatory rheumatism: results from a retrospective follow-up study of 283 adult and child cases in La Virginia, Risaralda, Colombia [version 2; referees: 3 approved

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Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: There are limited studies in Latin America regarding the chronic consequences of the Chikungunya virus (CHIK, such as post-CHIK chronic inflammatory rheumatism (pCHIK-CIR. We assessed the largest cohort so far of pCHIK-CIR in Latin America, at the municipality of La Virginia, Risaralda, a new endemic area of CHIK in Colombia. Methods: We conducted a cohort retrospective study in Colombia of 283 patients diagnosed with CHIK that persisted with pCHIK-CIR after a minimum of 6 weeks and up to a maximum of 26.1 weeks. pCHIK cases were identified according to validated criteria via telephone. Results: Of the total CHIK-infected subjects, 152 (53.7% reported persistent rheumatological symptoms (pCHIK-CIR. All of these patients reported joint pains (chronic polyarthralgia, pCHIK-CPA, 49.5% morning stiffness, 40.6% joint edema, and 16.6% joint redness. Of all patients, 19.4% required and attended for care prior to the current study assessment (1.4% consulting rheumatologists. Significant differences in the frequency were observed according to age groups and gender. Patients aged >40 years old required more medical attention (39.5% than those ≤40 years-old (12.1% (RR=4.748, 95%CI 2.550-8.840. Conclusions: According to our results, at least half of the patients with CHIK developed chronic rheumatologic sequelae, and from those with pCHIK-CPA, nearly half presented clinical symptoms consistent with inflammatory forms of the disease. These results support previous estimates obtained from pooled data of studies in La Reunion (France and India and are consistent with the results published previously from other Colombian cohorts in Venadillo (Tolima and Since (Sucre.

[Chikungunya and urban sprawl on Reunion Island].

Science.gov (United States)

Aoustin, T

2012-03-01

The proportion of unsanitary housing in French overseas departments is much higher than in mainland France. Reunion Island is no exception to this fact. Between 80 and 90% of housing in Reunion Island was built by squatters with no legal claim or deed to the property. This has resulted in uncontrolled urban sprawl with living conditions reminiscent of those in developing countries. The absence of adequate drainage systems for sewage and rain water and the lack of properly organized garbage disposal that characterizes these sprawl areas constitutes a particularly favorable breeding ground for vector-borne diseases, especially chikungunya. Thus, implementing measures to control this type of settlement and to relocate of people out of existing sprawl areas constitutes a significant tool to control this epidemiological risk. Up to now, public officials have shown a clear reluctance to intervene in sprawl areas despite good knowledge of their location. On June 26th of this year, a law containing provisions relative to the control of urban sprawl and unsanitary housing in overseas departments and territories will come into effect. This law should provide public officials with the legal basis that has up until now been lacking to take action. Persistence in the "wait-and-see" attitude could lead to condemnation by French or European courts.

Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

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Nardin, Luis G; Miller, Craig R; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Krone, Stephen M; Joyce, Paul; Baumgaertner, Bert O

2016-01-01

The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

Epidemic spreading and immunization strategy in multiplex networks

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Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.; Buono, Camila; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2015-09-01

A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in multilayer networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a multiplex network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped, multiplex network where only a fraction of the individuals are shared by the layers. We develop a mitigation strategy for stopping a disease propagation, considering the Susceptible-Infected- Recover model, in a system consisted by two layers. We consider a random immunization in one of the layers and study the effect of the overlapping fraction in both, the propagation of the disease and the immunization strategy. Using branching theory, we study this scenario theoretically and via simulations and find a lower epidemic threshold than in the case without strategy.

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato

2016-01-01

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian...

Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

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Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2017-04-01

We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

Monitoring linked epidemics: the case of tuberculosis and HIV.

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María S Sánchez

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The tight epidemiological coupling between HIV and its associated opportunistic infections leads to challenges and opportunities for disease surveillance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We review efforts of WHO and collaborating agencies to track and fight the TB/HIV co-epidemic, and discuss modeling--via mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches--as a means to identify disease indicators designed to integrate data from linked diseases in order to characterize how co-epidemics change in time and space. We present R(TB/HIV, an index comparing changes in TB incidence relative to HIV prevalence, and use it to identify those sub-Saharan African countries with outlier TB/HIV dynamics. R(TB/HIV can also be used to predict epidemiological trends, investigate the coherency of reported trends, and cross-check the anticipated impact of public health interventions. Identifying the cause(s responsible for anomalous R(TB/HIV values can reveal information crucial to the management of public health. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We frame our suggestions for integrating and analyzing co-epidemic data within the context of global disease monitoring. Used routinely, joint disease indicators such as R(TB/HIV could greatly enhance the monitoring and evaluation of public health programs.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

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Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

Differential protein modulation in midguts of Aedes aegypti infected with chikungunya and dengue 2 viruses.

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Stéphane Tchankouo-Nguetcheu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Arthropod borne virus infections cause several emerging and resurgent infectious diseases. Among the diseases caused by arboviruses, dengue and chikungunya are responsible for a high rate of severe human diseases worldwide. The midgut of mosquitoes is the first barrier for pathogen transmission and is a target organ where arboviruses must replicate prior to infecting other organs. A proteomic approach was undertaken to characterize the key virus/vector interactions and host protein modifications that happen in the midgut for viral transmission to eventually take place. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a proteomics differential approach with two-Dimensional Differential in-Gel Electrophoresis (2D-DIGE, we defined the protein modulations in the midgut of Aedes aegypti that were triggered seven days after an oral infection (7 DPI with dengue 2 (DENV-2 and chikungunya (CHIKV viruses. Gel profile comparisons showed that the level of 18 proteins was modulated by DENV-2 only and 12 proteins were modulated by CHIKV only. Twenty proteins were regulated by both viruses in either similar or different ways. Both viruses caused an increase of proteins involved in the generation of reactive oxygen species, energy production, and carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. Midgut infection by DENV-2 and CHIKV triggered an antioxidant response. CHIKV infection produced an increase of proteins involved in detoxification. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study constitutes the first analysis of the protein response of Aedes aegypti's midgut infected with viruses belonging to different families. It shows that the differentially regulated proteins in response to viral infection include structural, redox, regulatory proteins, and enzymes for several metabolic pathways. Some of these proteins like antioxidant are probably involved in cell protection. On the other hand, we propose that the modulation of other proteins like transferrin, hsp60 and alpha

The Impact of Resources for Clinical Surveillance on the Control of a Hypothetical Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic...... losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which...... resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number...

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

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Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

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Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Serological evidence of widespread exposure of Grenada fruit bats to chikungunya virus.

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Stone, D; Lyons, A C; Huang, Y-J S; Vanlandingham, D L; Higgs, S; Blitvich, B J; Adesiyun, A A; Santana, S E; Leiser-Miller, L; Cheetham, S

2018-03-25

Antibody detection against selected potentially zoonotic vector-borne alphaviruses and flaviviruses was conducted on sera from bats from all six parishes in Grenada, West Indies. Sera were tested for (i) antibodies to flaviviruses West Nile virus, St. Louis encephalitis virus, Ilhéus virus, Bussuquara virus (BSQV), Rio Bravo virus and all four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV) by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT); (ii) antibodies to alphaviruses western equine encephalitis virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus and eastern equine encephalitis virus by epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); and (iii) antibodies to the alphavirus chikungunya (CHIKV) by PRNT. Two species of fruit bats were sampled, Artibeus jamaicensis and Artibeus lituratus, all roosting in or within 1,000 m of human settlements. Fifteen (36%) of the 42 bats tested for neutralizing antibodies to CHIKV were positive. The CHIKV-seropositive bats lived in localities spanning five of the six parishes. All 43 bats tested for epitope-blocking ELISA antibody to the other alphaviruses were negative, except one positive for Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. All 50 bats tested for neutralizing antibody to flaviviruses were negative, except one that had a BSQV PRNT 80 titre of 20. The CHIKV serology results indicate that bats living close to and within human settlements were exposed to CHIKV in multiple locations. Importantly, bats for this study were trapped a year after the introduction and peak of the human CHIKV epidemic in Grenada. Thus, our data indicate that bats were exposed to CHIKV possibly during a time of marked decline in human cases. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Chikungunya Virus as Cause of Febrile Illness Outbreak, Chiapas, Mexico, 2014

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Kautz, Tiffany F.; Díaz-González, Esteban E.; Erasmus, Jesse H.; Malo-García, Iliana R.; Langsjoen, Rose M.; Patterson, Edward I.; Auguste, Dawn I.; Forrester, Naomi L.; Sanchez-Casas, Rosa Maria; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia M.; Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso

2015-01-01

Since chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was introduced into the Americas in 2013, its geographic distribution has rapidly expanded. Of 119 serum samples collected in 2014 from febrile patients in southern Mexico, 79% were positive for CHIKV or IgM against CHIKV. Sequencing results confirmed CHIKV strains closely related to Caribbean isolates. PMID:26488312

Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama

OpenAIRE

Crawford, Andrew J.; Lips, Karen R.; Bermingham, Eldredge

2010-01-01

Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing...

Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

2013-01-01

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

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Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

2013-01-01

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

OpenAIRE

Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

Poverty and Arbovirus Outbreaks: When Chikungunya Virus Hits More Precarious Populations Than Dengue Virus in French Guiana.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonifay, Timothée; Douine, Maylis; Bonnefoy, Clémence; Hurpeau, Benoit; Nacher, Mathieu; Djossou, Félix; Epelboin, Loïc

2017-01-01

Since 2013, 3 successive arbovirus outbreaks, dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika virus, have occurred in French Guiana (FG). The primary objective of this study was to describe the socioeconomic indicators of the first patients infected with CHIKV during the outbreak of 2014. The secondary objective was to compare those patients with patient infected by DENV and with the local population. A monocentric, retrospective, case-control study was conducted in Cayenne hospital in FG comparing a group of patients infected with CHIKV in 2014 with a group infected with DENV in 2013. Children aged less than 15 years and pregnant women were excluded. A total of 168 CHIKV patients were compared with 168 DENV patients. Factors associated with CHIKV were living in poor neighborhoods (82% vs 44%; odds ratio [OR], 5.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.35-10.2), having a precarious status (54% vs 33%; OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.49-3.78), and being born abroad (70% vs 35%; OR, 4.35; 95% CI, 2.69-7.06). The present results suggest that early in the epidemic, the populations most at risk for CHIKV infection were the most socially vulnerable populations in the poorest neighborhoods, whereas DENV appeared to have affected a richer population and richer areas.

Large-scale application of highly-diluted bacteria for Leptospirosis epidemic control.

Science.gov (United States)

Bracho, Gustavo; Varela, Enrique; Fernández, Rolando; Ordaz, Barbara; Marzoa, Natalia; Menéndez, Jorge; García, Luis; Gilling, Esperanza; Leyva, Richard; Rufín, Reynaldo; de la Torre, Rubén; Solis, Rosa L; Batista, Niurka; Borrero, Reinier; Campa, Concepción

2010-07-01

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of major importance in the tropics where the incidence peaks in rainy seasons. Natural disasters represent a big challenge to Leptospirosis prevention strategies especially in endemic regions. Vaccination is an effective option but of reduced effectiveness in emergency situations. Homeoprophylactic interventions might help to control epidemics by using highly-diluted pathogens to induce protection in a short time scale. We report the results of a very large-scale homeoprophylaxis (HP) intervention against Leptospirosis in a dangerous epidemic situation in three provinces of Cuba in 2007. Forecast models were used to estimate possible trends of disease incidence. A homeoprophylactic formulation was prepared from dilutions of four circulating strains of Leptospirosis. This formulation was administered orally to 2.3 million persons at high risk in an epidemic in a region affected by natural disasters. The data from surveillance were used to measure the impact of the intervention by comparing with historical trends and non-intervention regions. After the homeoprophylactic intervention a significant decrease of the disease incidence was observed in the intervention regions. No such modifications were observed in non-intervention regions. In the intervention region the incidence of Leptospirosis fell below the historic median. This observation was independent of rainfall. The homeoprophylactic approach was associated with a large reduction of disease incidence and control of the epidemic. The results suggest the use of HP as a feasible tool for epidemic control, further research is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

2013-01-01

We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

Dengue, zika, chikungunya y el desarrollo de vacunas

OpenAIRE

Kantor, Isabel N

2018-01-01

Dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) y chikungunya (CHIKV), tres arbovirosis transmitidas por mosquitos Aedes, se han propagado en las últimas décadas en zonas tropicales y subtropicales húmedas. El dengue es epidémico en áreas subtropicales de la Argentina. Después de la infección por DENV hay inmunidad duradera contra el serotipo infectante, pero aumenta el riesgo de enfermedad grave por los otros tres. La vacuna recombinante tetravalente, Dengvaxia® previene el dengue grave y la hospitalización en s...

Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

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Clement Nyamunura Mweya

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Background: The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Diverse ecological niche modelling techniques have been developed for this purpose: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Results: Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Conclusion: Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa.

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Mweya, Clement Nyamunura; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E G

2013-01-01

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

Antiviral effect of compounds derived from the seeds of Mammea americana and Tabernaemontana cymosa on Dengue and Chikungunya virus infections.

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Gómez-Calderón, Cecilia; Mesa-Castro, Carol; Robledo, Sara; Gómez, Sergio; Bolivar-Avila, Santiago; Diaz-Castillo, Fredyc; Martínez-Gutierrez, Marlen

2017-01-18

The transmission of Dengue virus (DENV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has increased worldwide, due in part to the lack of a specific antiviral treatment. For this reason, the search for compounds with antiviral potential, either as licensed drugs or in natural products, is a research priority. The objective of this study was to identify some of the compounds that are present in Mammea americana (M. americana) and Tabernaemontana cymosa (T. cymosa) plants and, subsequently, to evaluate their cytotoxicity in VERO cells and their potential antiviral effects on DENV and CHIKV infections in those same cells. Dry ethanolic extracts of M. americana and T. cymosa seeds were subjected to open column chromatographic fractionation, leading to the identification of four compounds: two coumarins, derived from M. americana; and lupeol acetate and voacangine derived from T. cymosa.. The cytotoxicity of each compound was subsequently assessed by the MTT method (at concentrations from 400 to 6.25 μg/mL). Pre- and post-treatment antiviral assays were performed at non-toxic concentrations; the resulting DENV inhibition was evaluated by Real-Time PCR, and the CHIKV inhibition was tested by the plating method. The results were analyzed by means of statistical analysis. The compounds showed low toxicity at concentrations ≤ 200 μg/mL. The compounds coumarin A and coumarin B, which are derived from the M. americana plant, significantly inhibited infection with both viruses during the implementation of the two experimental strategies employed here (post-treatment with inhibition percentages greater than 50%, p treatment with percentages of inhibition greater than 40%, p treatment strategy (at inhibition percentages greater than 70%, p treating Dengue and Chikungunya fever. Additionally, lupeol acetate and voacangine efficiently inhibit infection with DENV, also turning them into promising antivirals for Dengue fever.

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings

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Livio Bioglio

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. Methods We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Results Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. Conclusions An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings.

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Bioglio, Livio; Génois, Mathieu; Vestergaard, Christian L; Poletto, Chiara; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria

2016-11-14

The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and realism of agent-based simulations and limit the intrinsic biases of

Co-circulation of Dengue and Chikungunya Viruses, Al Hudaydah, Yemen, 2012.

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Rezza, Giovanni; El-Sawaf, Gamal; Faggioni, Giovanni; Vescio, Fenicia; Al Ameri, Ranya; De Santis, Riccardo; Helaly, Ghada; Pomponi, Alice; Metwally, Dalia; Fantini, Massimo; Qadi, Hussein; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Lista, Florigio

2014-08-01

We investigated 400 cases of dengue-like illness in persons hospitalized during an outbreak in Al Hudaydah, Yemen, in 2012. Overall, 116 dengue and 49 chikungunya cases were diagnosed. Dengue virus type 2 was the predominant serotype. The co-circulation of these viruses indicates that mosquitoborne infections represent a public health threat in Yemen.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

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Saki Takahashi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71 and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16 being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40 and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34, with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation. EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

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Takahashi, Saki; Liao, Qiaohong; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Xing, Weijia; Sun, Junling; Hsiao, Victor Y; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Chang, Zhaorui; Liu, Fengfeng; Zhang, Jing; Wu, Joseph T; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M; Farrar, Jeremy J; van Doorn, H Rogier; Grenfell, Bryan T; Yu, Hongjie

2016-02-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus. Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71

Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

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YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

2013-12-01

The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

First Report of Aedes aegypti Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in the Americas.

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Díaz-González, Esteban E; Kautz, Tiffany F; Dorantes-Delgado, Alicia; Malo-García, Iliana R; Laguna-Aguilar, Maricela; Langsjoen, Rose M; Chen, Rubing; Auguste, Dawn I; Sánchez-Casas, Rosa M; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Weaver, Scott C; Fernández-Salas, Ildefonso

2015-12-01

During a chikungunya fever outbreak in late 2014 in Chiapas, Mexico, entomovirological surveillance was performed to incriminate the vector(s). In neighborhoods, 75 households with suspected cases were sampled for mosquitoes, of which 80% (60) harbored Aedes aegypti and 2.7% (2) Aedes albopictus. A total of 1,170 Ae. aegypti and three Ae. albopictus was collected and 81 pools were generated. Although none of the Ae. albopictus pools were chikungunya virus (CHIKV)-positive, 18 Ae. aegypti pools (22.8%) contained CHIKV, yielding an infection rate of 32.3/1,000 mosquitoes. A lack of herd immunity in conjunction with high mosquito populations, poor vector control services in this region, and targeted collections in locations of human cases may explain the high infection rate in this vector. Consistent with predictions from experimental studies, Ae. aegypti appears to be the principal vector of CHIKV in southern Mexico, while the role of Ae. albopictus remains unknown. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Azañón's disease. A 19th century epidemic of neurolathyrism in Spain.

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Giménez-Roldán, S; Spencer, P S

2016-12-01

The cultivation and consumption of grasspea (Lathyrus sativus) in Spain probably dates back centuries, especially during times of famine when the neurotoxic potential of this legume was expressed in the form of a spastic paraparesis known as neurolathyrism. Little known outside the country, the epidemic of neurolathyrism in the years following the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) came to affect more than a thousand people. In late 1872, during the Six Years Revolutionary Term, young Alejandro San Martín Satrústegui (1847-1908), then editor of the popular weekly El Siglo Médico, travelled to Azañón, a remote village in the province of Guadalajara, to clarify a so-far unknown disease. We analysed the original article published in 1873 by San Martin, as well as communications sent by El Siglo Médico readers reporting similar cases in many other Castilian provinces. San Martín's neurological findings in seven personally examined cases were astonishingly accurate; he concluded the subjects' neurological deficits resulted from injury to the lateral columns in the lower portion of the spinal cord. Description of the clinical findings provided both by San Martín, and by the readers of El Siglo Médico, leave no doubt as to the diagnosis of neurolathyrism. However, none suspected the patient's staple food was the determinant cause of the disease. San Martín proposed the eponym Azañón's disease for lack of a better name the same year (1873) in which Cantani in Italy introduced the term lathyrism. The epidemic of neurolathyrism that affected many Castilian towns represents one of the best-documented in Europe during the last third of the 19th century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Community context and sub-neighborhood scale detail to explain dengue, chikungunya and Zika patterns in Cali, Colombia.

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Amy R Krystosik

Full Text Available Cali, Colombia has experienced chikungunya and Zika outbreaks and hypoendemic dengue. Studies have explained Cali's dengue patterns but lack the sub-neighborhood-scale detail investigated here.Spatial-video geonarratives (SVG with Ministry of Health officials and Community Health Workers were collected in hotspots, providing perspective on perceptions of why dengue, chikungunya and Zika hotspots exist, impediments to control, and social outcomes. Using spatial video and Google Street View, sub-neighborhood features possibly contributing to incidence were mapped to create risk surfaces, later compared with dengue, chikungunya and Zika case data.SVG captured insights in 24 neighborhoods. Trash and water risks in Calipso were mapped using SVG results. Perceived risk factors included proximity to standing water, canals, poverty, invasions, localized violence and military migration. These risks overlapped case density maps and identified areas that are suitable for transmission but are possibly underreporting to the surveillance system.Resulting risk maps with local context could be leveraged to increase vector-control efficiency- targeting key areas of environmental risk.

Community context and sub-neighborhood scale detail to explain dengue, chikungunya and Zika patterns in Cali, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Andrew; Buritica, Paola; Ajayakumar, Jayakrishnan; Squires, Robert; Dávalos, Diana; Pacheco, Robinson; Bhatta, Madhav P.; James, Mark A.

2017-01-01

Background Cali, Colombia has experienced chikungunya and Zika outbreaks and hypoendemic dengue. Studies have explained Cali’s dengue patterns but lack the sub-neighborhood-scale detail investigated here. Methods Spatial-video geonarratives (SVG) with Ministry of Health officials and Community Health Workers were collected in hotspots, providing perspective on perceptions of why dengue, chikungunya and Zika hotspots exist, impediments to control, and social outcomes. Using spatial video and Google Street View, sub-neighborhood features possibly contributing to incidence were mapped to create risk surfaces, later compared with dengue, chikungunya and Zika case data. Results SVG captured insights in 24 neighborhoods. Trash and water risks in Calipso were mapped using SVG results. Perceived risk factors included proximity to standing water, canals, poverty, invasions, localized violence and military migration. These risks overlapped case density maps and identified areas that are suitable for transmission but are possibly underreporting to the surveillance system. Conclusion Resulting risk maps with local context could be leveraged to increase vector-control efficiency- targeting key areas of environmental risk. PMID:28767730

2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

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Martin-Granel, Estelle

2006-01-01

The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

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Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

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Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

Characteristic properties of carrying out anti-epidemic arrangements during liquidation of radiation accident after-effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaposhnikov, A.A.; Konyshev, I.S.

1995-01-01

During liquidation of the after-effects of technogenic accidents it is necessary to maintain satisfactory sanitary and epidemiological conditions in the emergency zone and in the regions of temporary accommodation of the evacuated population, to secure epidemic safety of drinking water, edible raw materials and prepared foods, communal and other establishments. The volume and trend of anti-epidemic measures are planned depending on the type of epidemic situation. In the course of sanitary-epidemiological survey should be ascertained the prevalence of diseases among the population, epizootic among domestic animals and synanthropous rodents, the existence of natural foci of infectious diseases and their activity, the conditions of epidemically important establishments in the emergency zone, sanitary conditions of places of residence of population, the presence of transmitters of infectious diseases, the system of organization of anti-epidemic control of population and rescuers. The rehabilitation of immunological reactivity of human body up to adequate response to the antigen irritation is observed within various periods of time after recovery from radial disease (1-3 months). 17 refs.; 2 tabs

Vector competence of populations of Aedes aegypti from three distinct cities in Kenya for chikungunya virus.

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Sheila B Agha

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In April, 2004, chikungunya virus (CHIKV re-emerged in Kenya and eventually spread to the islands in the Indian Ocean basin, South-East Asia, and the Americas. The virus, which is often associated with high levels of viremia in humans, is mostly transmitted by the urban vector, Aedes aegypti. The expansion of CHIKV presents a public health challenge both locally and internationally. In this study, we investigated the ability of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes from three distinct cities in Kenya; Mombasa (outbreak prone, Kisumu, and Nairobi (no documented outbreak to transmit CHIKV.Aedes aegypti mosquito populations were exposed to different doses of CHIKV (105.6-7.5 plaque-forming units[PFU]/ml in an infectious blood meal. Transmission was ascertained by collecting and testing saliva samples from individual mosquitoes at 5, 7, 9, and 14 days post exposure. Infection and dissemination were estimated by testing body and legs, respectively, for individual mosquitoes at selected days post exposure. Tissue culture assays were used to determine the presence of infectious viral particles in the body, leg, and saliva samples. The number of days post exposure had no effect on infection, dissemination, or transmission rates, but these rates increased with an increase in exposure dose in all three populations. Although the rates were highest in Ae. aegypti from Mombasa at titers ≥106.9 PFU/ml, the differences observed were not statistically significant (χ2 ≤ 1.04, DF = 1, P ≥ 0.31. Overall, about 71% of the infected mosquitoes developed a disseminated infection, of which 21% successfully transmitted the virus into a capillary tube, giving an estimated transmission rate of about 10% for mosquitoes that ingested ≥106.9 PFU/ml of CHIKV. All three populations of Ae. aegypti were infectious as early as 5-7 days post exposure. On average, viral dissemination only occurred when body titers were ≥104 PFU/ml in all populations.Populations of Ae. aegypti from

Vector competence of populations of Aedes aegypti from three distinct cities in Kenya for chikungunya virus.

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Agha, Sheila B; Chepkorir, Edith; Mulwa, Francis; Tigoi, Caroline; Arum, Samwel; Guarido, Milehna M; Ambala, Peris; Chelangat, Betty; Lutomiah, Joel; Tchouassi, David P; Turell, Michael J; Sang, Rosemary

2017-08-01

In April, 2004, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Kenya and eventually spread to the islands in the Indian Ocean basin, South-East Asia, and the Americas. The virus, which is often associated with high levels of viremia in humans, is mostly transmitted by the urban vector, Aedes aegypti. The expansion of CHIKV presents a public health challenge both locally and internationally. In this study, we investigated the ability of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes from three distinct cities in Kenya; Mombasa (outbreak prone), Kisumu, and Nairobi (no documented outbreak) to transmit CHIKV. Aedes aegypti mosquito populations were exposed to different doses of CHIKV (105.6-7.5 plaque-forming units[PFU]/ml) in an infectious blood meal. Transmission was ascertained by collecting and testing saliva samples from individual mosquitoes at 5, 7, 9, and 14 days post exposure. Infection and dissemination were estimated by testing body and legs, respectively, for individual mosquitoes at selected days post exposure. Tissue culture assays were used to determine the presence of infectious viral particles in the body, leg, and saliva samples. The number of days post exposure had no effect on infection, dissemination, or transmission rates, but these rates increased with an increase in exposure dose in all three populations. Although the rates were highest in Ae. aegypti from Mombasa at titers ≥106.9 PFU/ml, the differences observed were not statistically significant (χ2 ≤ 1.04, DF = 1, P ≥ 0.31). Overall, about 71% of the infected mosquitoes developed a disseminated infection, of which 21% successfully transmitted the virus into a capillary tube, giving an estimated transmission rate of about 10% for mosquitoes that ingested ≥106.9 PFU/ml of CHIKV. All three populations of Ae. aegypti were infectious as early as 5-7 days post exposure. On average, viral dissemination only occurred when body titers were ≥104 PFU/ml in all populations. Populations of Ae. aegypti from Mombasa, Nairobi

The threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model

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Zhang, Xiao-Bing; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong; Shi, Qihong; Li, Dungang

2017-09-01

In this paper, we present the threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, we find that noise can suppress the disease outbreak. Numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

2013-01-01

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

2016-12-01

We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

Chikungunya: an overview

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

PRAKASH KUMAR

by a number of outbreaks in Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia,. Taiwan etc. in the subsequent years. In the Bangkok epidemic, though three etiological agents were .... cell culture based formalin inactivated vaccine developed by. Harrison et al (1971) was the most promising as it elicited high levels of neutralizing antibody in ...

[Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

2016-05-24

Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

2016-04-01

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

2000-02-01

Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uekermann, Florian Philipp

The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

First reported chikungunya fever outbreak in the republic of Congo, 2011.

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Nanikaly Moyen

Full Text Available Chikungunya is an Aedes -borne disease characterised by febrile arthralgia and responsible for massive outbreaks. We present a prospective clinical cohort study and a retrospective serological study relating to a CHIK outbreak, in the Republic of Congo in 2011.We analysed 317 suspected cases, of which 308 (97.2% lived in the city of Brazzaville (66.6% in the South area. Amongst them, 37 (11.7% were CHIKV+ve patients (i.e., biologically confirmed by a real-time RT-PCR assay, of whom 36 (97.3% had fever, 22 (66.7% myalgia and 32 (86.5% arthralgia. All tested negative for dengue. The distribution of incident cases within Brazzaville districts was compared with CHIKV seroprevalence before the outbreak (34.4% in 517 blood donors, providing evidence for previous circulation of CHIKV. We applied a CHIK clinical score to 126 patients recruited within the two first day of illness (including 28 CHIKV+ves (22.2% with sensitivity (78.6% and specificity (72.4% values comparing with those of the referent study in Reunion Island. The negative predictive value was high (92%, but the positive predictive value (45% indicate poor potential contribution to medical practice to identify CHIKV+ve patients in low prevalence outbreaks. However, the score allowed a slightly more accurate follow-up of the evolution of the outbreak than the criterion "fever+arthralgia". The complete sequencing of a Congolase isolate (Brazza_MRS1 demonstrated belonging to the East/Central/South African lineage and was further used for producing a robust genome-scale CHIKV phylogenetic analysis.We describe the first Chikungunya outbreak declared in the Republic of Congo. The seroprevalence study conducted amongst blood donors before outbreak provided evidence for previous CHIKV circulation. We suggest that a more systematic survey of the entomological situation and of arbovirus circulation is necessary in Central Africa for better understanding the environmental, microbiological and

Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

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Carolyn Orbann

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

Chikungunya fever among patients with acute febrile illness attending a Tertiary Care Hospital in Mumbai

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Lata Baswanna Galate

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Chikungunya fever (CHIK is an arboviral disease. Dengue fever (DENG and CHIK are indistinguishable clinically and need to be differentiated by laboratory investigations. Purpose: This study aimed at estimating the seroprevalence of CHIK mono-infection and CHIK and DENG dual infection in suspected patients. We also analyzed the age, sex distribution, joint involvement, and relation of joint movement restriction with visual analog scale (VAS. Materials and Methods: Two hundred patients clinically suspected with DENG and CHIK were enrolled from a Tertiary Care Hospital in Mumbai from April 2012 to October 2013. The detailed history and examination findings were recorded. Serum samples were subjected to DENG and CHIK immunoglobulin G (IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Results: The seroprevalence of CHIK was 12.5%. Mono-infection of CHIK was 3%, and CHIK and DENG dual infection was 9.5%. Most affected age group in CHIK cases was 46-60 years wherein female preponderance was seen. All 6 patients with CHIK mono-infection had fever and joint involvement; knee and elbow were the most commonly affected joints. All CHIK patients had VAS score of 6-10 with restricted joint movement. Of the patients with dual infection, the majorities were from 31 to 45 years with male preponderance; all had fever and joint pain mainly affecting knee and elbow. Of patients who had VAS score 6-10 in patients with dual infection, only 5.26% had restricted joint movement. Conclusion: IgM ELISA for Chikungunya infection should be included in the routine laboratory tests for acute febrile illness.

Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

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Alhaji Cherif

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation. In particular, we use SIR(BS (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1 disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2 behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3 elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherif, Alhaji; Barley, Kamal; Hurtado, Marcel

2016-03-01

We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ-α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

2015-05-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainfall-driven epidemic cholera: hydrologic controls on water-borne disease and multi-season projections

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-12-01

Following the acknowledgement of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence, that was observed in Haiti starting from May 2011, we use a multi-variate Poisson generator to produce rainfall inputs, with which we force spatially explicit models of cholera spreading. Our models consist of ODE systems of equations, describing a network of human communities (divided in Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals) connected by river transport of pathogens and human mobility. We perform an a posteriori analysis -- from the beginning of the epidemic until December 2011 -- to assess the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures -- involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate further resurgences of cholera in the region and to evaluate, again, the effect of policies which may bring to the eradication of the disease in Haiti. We conclude that mathematical models may represent a key information tool for policy makers, as a way to preliminarly assess the possible future course of an epidemic and to test intervention policies to be deployed. Effect of intervention policies on the predicted course of the epidemic between 28/05-31/12/2011 (blue lines: simulations with the observed rainfall pattern; red lines/shaded range: median/25th-75th percentile range of simulations with generated rainfall). A) Effect of a reduction of the 20% of the contact rate , applied in one month starting from the 1st of June (dashed blue/red lines) or the 1st of July (dotted blue/red lines). B) A) Effect of a vaccination of 4 million individuals, implemented in one month starting from the 1st of June (dashed blue/red lines) or the 1st of July (dotted blue/red lines). C) Number of new cases in the period 28/05-31/12/2011 as a function of the reduction of the contact rate . D) Number of new cases in the period 28/05-31/12/2011 as a

Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.

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Norval J C Strachan

Full Text Available A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990-2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990-2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.

Epidemiology of Epidemic Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry and Surrounding Prefectures, Guinea, 2014-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Rico, Adriana; Brody, Debra; Coronado, Fátima; Rondy, Marc; Fiebig, Lena; Carcelen, Andrea; Deyde, Varough M; Mesfin, Samuel; Retzer, Kyla D; Bilivogui, Pepe; Keita, Sakoba; Dahl, Benjamin A

2016-02-01

In 2014, Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was first reported during March in 3 southeastern prefectures in Guinea; from there, the disease rapidly spread across West Africa. We describe the epidemiology of EVD cases reported in Guinea's capital, Conakry, and 4 surrounding prefectures (Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, and Kindia), encompassing a full year of the epidemic. A total of 1,355 EVD cases, representing ≈40% of cases reported in Guinea, originated from these areas. Overall, Forecariah had the highest cumulative incidence (4× higher than that in Conakry). Case-fatality percentage ranged from 40% in Conakry to 60% in Kindia. Cumulative incidence was slightly higher among male than female residents, although incidences by prefecture and commune differed by sex. Over the course of the year, Conakry and neighboring prefectures became the EVD epicenter in Guinea.

Epidemics after Natural Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

2007-01-01

The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

First report of naturally infected Aedes aegypti with chikungunya virus genotype ECSA in the Americas.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-da-Silva, André Luis; Ioshino, Rafaella Sayuri; Petersen, Vivian; Lima, Antonio Fernando; Cunha, Marielton Dos Passos; Wiley, Michael R; Ladner, Jason T; Prieto, Karla; Palacios, Gustavo; Costa, Danuza Duarte; Suesdek, Lincoln; Zanotto, Paolo Marinho de Andrade; Capurro, Margareth Lara

2017-06-01

The worldwide expansion of new emergent arboviruses such as Chikungunya and Zika reinforces the importance in understanding the role of mosquito species in spreading these pathogens in affected regions. This knowledge is essential for developing effective programs based on species specificity to avoid the establishment of endemic transmission cycles sustained by the identified local vectors. Although the first autochthonous transmission of Chikungunya virus was described in 2014 in the north of Brazil, the main outbreaks were reported in 2015 and 2016 in the northeast of Brazil. During 5 days of February 2016, we collected mosquitoes in homes of 6 neighborhoods of Aracaju city, the capital of Sergipe state. Four mosquito species were identified but Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti were the most abundant. Field-caught mosquitoes were tested for Chikungunya (CHIKV), Zika (ZIKV) and Dengue viruses (DENV) by qRT-PCR and one CHIKV-infected Ae. aegypti female was detected. The complete sequence of CHIKV genome was obtained from this sample and phylogenetic analysis revealed that this isolate belongs to the East-Central-South-African (ECSA) genotype. Our study describes the first identification of a naturally CHIKV-infected Ae. aegypti in Brazil and the first report of a CHIKV from ECSA genotype identified in this species in the Americas. These findings support the notion of Ae. aegypti being a vector involved in CHIKV outbreaks in northeast of Brazil.

First report of naturally infected Aedes aegypti with chikungunya virus genotype ECSA in the Americas.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Luis Costa-da-Silva

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The worldwide expansion of new emergent arboviruses such as Chikungunya and Zika reinforces the importance in understanding the role of mosquito species in spreading these pathogens in affected regions. This knowledge is essential for developing effective programs based on species specificity to avoid the establishment of endemic transmission cycles sustained by the identified local vectors. Although the first autochthonous transmission of Chikungunya virus was described in 2014 in the north of Brazil, the main outbreaks were reported in 2015 and 2016 in the northeast of Brazil.During 5 days of February 2016, we collected mosquitoes in homes of 6 neighborhoods of Aracaju city, the capital of Sergipe state. Four mosquito species were identified but Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti were the most abundant. Field-caught mosquitoes were tested for Chikungunya (CHIKV, Zika (ZIKV and Dengue viruses (DENV by qRT-PCR and one CHIKV-infected Ae. aegypti female was detected. The complete sequence of CHIKV genome was obtained from this sample and phylogenetic analysis revealed that this isolate belongs to the East-Central-South-African (ECSA genotype.Our study describes the first identification of a naturally CHIKV-infected Ae. aegypti in Brazil and the first report of a CHIKV from ECSA genotype identified in this species in the Americas. These findings support the notion of Ae. aegypti being a vector involved in CHIKV outbreaks in northeast of Brazil.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: bhwang@ustc.edu.cn; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael [Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)], E-mail: ensmall@polyu.edu.hk; Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Studies, and Beijing-Hong Kong-Singapore Joint Centre for Nonlinear and Complex Systems (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China)

2010-02-15

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

2010-01-01

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Feeder density enhances house finch disease transmission in experimental epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Moyers, Sahnzi C; Adelman, James S; Farine, Damien R; Thomason, Courtney A; Hawley, Dana M

2018-05-05

Anthropogenic food provisioning of wildlife can alter the frequency of contacts among hosts and between hosts and environmental sources of pathogens. Despite the popularity of garden bird feeding, few studies have addressed how feeders influence host contact rates and disease dynamics. We experimentally manipulated feeder density in replicate aviaries containing captive, pathogen-naive, groups of house finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ) and continuously tracked behaviours at feeders using radio-frequency identification devices. We then inoculated one bird per group with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg), a common bacterial pathogen for which feeders are fomites of transmission, and assessed effects of feeder density on house finch behaviour and pathogen transmission. We found that pathogen transmission was significantly higher in groups with the highest density of bird feeders, despite a significantly lower rate of intraspecific aggressive interactions relative to the low feeder density groups. Conversely, among naive group members that never showed signs of disease, we saw significantly higher concentrations of Mg-specific antibodies in low feeder density groups, suggesting that birds in low feeder density treatments had exposure to subclinical doses of Mg. We discuss ways in which the density of garden bird feeders could play an important role in mediating the intensity of Mg epidemics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Horizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Kate S; Dallman, Timothy J; Field, Nigel; Childs, Tristan; Mitchell, Holly; Day, Martin; Weill, François-Xavier; Lefèvre, Sophie; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Hughes, Gwenda; Jenkins, Claire; Thomson, Nicholas

2018-04-13

Horizontal gene transfer has played a role in developing the global public health crisis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, the dynamics of AMR transfer through bacterial populations and its direct impact on human disease is poorly elucidated. Here, we study parallel epidemic emergences of multiple Shigella species, a priority AMR organism, in men who have sex with men to gain insight into AMR emergence and spread. Using genomic epidemiology, we show that repeated horizontal transfer of a single AMR plasmid among Shigella enhanced existing and facilitated new epidemics. These epidemic patterns contrasted with slighter, slower increases in disease caused by organisms with vertically inherited (chromosomally encoded) AMR. This demonstrates that horizontal transfer of AMR directly affects epidemiological outcomes of globally important AMR pathogens and highlights the need for integration of genomic analyses into all areas of AMR research, surveillance and management.

Chikungunya, o la incapacidad del sistema general de seguridad social en salud para prevenir. Preguntas para reflexionar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lídice Alvarez-Miño

2015-04-01

Full Text Available De acuerdo con la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS, el virus del Chikungunya no es un evento nuevo. La fiebre Chikungunya es una enfermedad vírica transmitida al ser humano por mosquitos, la cual fue descrita por primera vez durante un brote ocurrido en el sur de Tanzanía en 19521 . Este país africano, ubicado en el trópico, tiene características similares, en lo ambiental y climático, a Colombia. Es decir, compartimos ambientes comunes en los cuales el mismo vector (Aedes Aegypti puede transmitir diferentes enfermedades, entre ellas el dengue.

A human genome-wide loss-of-function screen identifies effective chikungunya antiviral drugs.

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Karlas, Alexander; Berre, Stefano; Couderc, Thérèse; Varjak, Margus; Braun, Peter; Meyer, Michael; Gangneux, Nicolas; Karo-Astover, Liis; Weege, Friderike; Raftery, Martin; Schönrich, Günther; Klemm, Uwe; Wurzlbauer, Anne; Bracher, Franz; Merits, Andres; Meyer, Thomas F; Lecuit, Marc

2016-05-12

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a globally spreading alphavirus against which there is no commercially available vaccine or therapy. Here we use a genome-wide siRNA screen to identify 156 proviral and 41 antiviral host factors affecting CHIKV replication. We analyse the cellular pathways in which human proviral genes are involved and identify druggable targets. Twenty-one small-molecule inhibitors, some of which are FDA approved, targeting six proviral factors or pathways, have high antiviral activity in vitro, with low toxicity. Three identified inhibitors have prophylactic antiviral effects in mouse models of chikungunya infection. Two of them, the calmodulin inhibitor pimozide and the fatty acid synthesis inhibitor TOFA, have a therapeutic effect in vivo when combined. These results demonstrate the value of loss-of-function screening and pathway analysis for the rational identification of small molecules with therapeutic potential and pave the way for the development of new, host-directed, antiviral agents.

Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

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M. N. Kuperman

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

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Benjamin Sultan

2005-01-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

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Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

2011-01-01

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

Feature: Post Traumatic Stres Disorder PTSD: A Growing Epidemic / Neuroscience and PTSD Treatments

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... Navigation Bar Home Current Issue Past Issues Feature PTSD PTSD: A Growing Epidemic Past Issues / Winter 2009 Table ... 20 percent of Iraqi war veterans Neuroscience and PTSD Treatments Dr. Barbara Rothbaum believes current research is ...

Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

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Guthmann, J P

1995-12-01

In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

[Chikungunya, dream holidays but. . . a painful "souvenir"].

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Bodenmann, P; Genton, B

2007-05-16

Little is known about chikungunya fever and, until March 2005, this abovirosis was seldom part of the differential diagnosis in the case of a patient with fever after travel return; at this time, a major outbreak of this self-limiting febrile illness was taking place in East Africa heading towards India and now also present in South East Asia. Although the evolution of this arbovirosis is usually favourable, important complications can appear in patients with initial comorbidities and in infants or elderly people. A simple serology can be used to show paraclinical evidence. The use of computer databases and internet surveillance networks is a precious help in establishing the differential diagnosis of patients with fever after travel return.

Public reaction to Chikungunya outbreaks in Italy-Insights from an extensive novel data streams-based structural equation modeling analysis.

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Naim Mahroum

Full Text Available The recent outbreak of Chikungunya virus in Italy represents a serious public health concern, which is attracting media coverage and generating public interest in terms of Internet searches and social media interactions. Here, we sought to assess the Chikungunya-related digital behavior and the interplay between epidemiological figures and novel data streams traffic. Reaction to the recent outbreak was analyzed in terms of Google Trends, Google News and Twitter traffic, Wikipedia visits and edits, and PubMed articles, exploiting structural modelling equations. A total of 233,678 page-views and 150 edits on the Italian Wikipedia page, 3,702 tweets, 149 scholarly articles, and 3,073 news articles were retrieved. The relationship between overall Chikungunya cases, as well as autochthonous cases, and tweets production was found to be fully mediated by Chikungunya-related web searches. However, in the allochthonous/imported cases model, tweet production was not found to be significantly mediated by epidemiological figures, with web searches still significantly mediating tweet production. Inconsistent relationships were detected in mediation models involving Wikipedia usage as a mediator variable. Similarly, the effect between news consumption and tweets production was suppressed by the Wikipedia usage. A further inconsistent mediation was found in the case of the effect between Wikipedia usage and tweets production, with web searches as a mediator variable. When adjusting for the Internet penetration index, similar findings could be obtained, with the important exception that in the adjusted model the relationship between GN and Twitter was found to be partially mediated by Wikipedia usage. Furthermore, the link between Wikipedia usage and PubMed/MEDLINE was fully mediated by GN, differently from what was found in the unadjusted model. In conclusion-a significant public reaction to the current Chikungunya outbreak was documented. Health authorities

Public reaction to Chikungunya outbreaks in Italy-Insights from an extensive novel data streams-based structural equation modeling analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahroum, Naim; Adawi, Mohammad; Sharif, Kassem; Waknin, Roy; Mahagna, Hussein; Bisharat, Bishara; Mahamid, Mahmud; Abu-Much, Arsalan; Amital, Howard; Luigi Bragazzi, Nicola; Watad, Abdulla

2018-01-01

The recent outbreak of Chikungunya virus in Italy represents a serious public health concern, which is attracting media coverage and generating public interest in terms of Internet searches and social media interactions. Here, we sought to assess the Chikungunya-related digital behavior and the interplay between epidemiological figures and novel data streams traffic. Reaction to the recent outbreak was analyzed in terms of Google Trends, Google News and Twitter traffic, Wikipedia visits and edits, and PubMed articles, exploiting structural modelling equations. A total of 233,678 page-views and 150 edits on the Italian Wikipedia page, 3,702 tweets, 149 scholarly articles, and 3,073 news articles were retrieved. The relationship between overall Chikungunya cases, as well as autochthonous cases, and tweets production was found to be fully mediated by Chikungunya-related web searches. However, in the allochthonous/imported cases model, tweet production was not found to be significantly mediated by epidemiological figures, with web searches still significantly mediating tweet production. Inconsistent relationships were detected in mediation models involving Wikipedia usage as a mediator variable. Similarly, the effect between news consumption and tweets production was suppressed by the Wikipedia usage. A further inconsistent mediation was found in the case of the effect between Wikipedia usage and tweets production, with web searches as a mediator variable. When adjusting for the Internet penetration index, similar findings could be obtained, with the important exception that in the adjusted model the relationship between GN and Twitter was found to be partially mediated by Wikipedia usage. Furthermore, the link between Wikipedia usage and PubMed/MEDLINE was fully mediated by GN, differently from what was found in the unadjusted model. In conclusion-a significant public reaction to the current Chikungunya outbreak was documented. Health authorities should be aware of

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance

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Sebastian Meyer

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The availability of geocoded health data and the inherent temporal structure of communicable diseases have led to an increased interest in statistical models and software for spatio-temporal data with epidemic features. The open source R package surveillance can handle various levels of aggregation at which infective events have been recorded: individual-level time-stamped geo-referenced data (case reports in either continuous space or discrete space, as well as counts aggregated by period and region. For each of these data types, the surveillance package implements tools for visualization, likelihoood inference and simulation from recently developed statistical regression frameworks capturing endemic and epidemic dynamics. Altogether, this paper is a guide to the spatio-temporal modeling of epidemic phenomena, exemplified by analyses of public health surveillance data on measles and invasive meningococcal disease.

Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

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Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

2014-06-01

Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

Next generation sequencing of DNA-launched Chikungunya vaccine virus

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Hidajat, Rachmat; Nickols, Brian [Medigen, Inc., 8420 Gas House Pike, Suite S, Frederick, MD 21701 (United States); Forrester, Naomi [Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, Sealy Center for Vaccine Development and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, GNL, 301 University Blvd., Galveston, TX 77555 (United States); Tretyakova, Irina [Medigen, Inc., 8420 Gas House Pike, Suite S, Frederick, MD 21701 (United States); Weaver, Scott [Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, Sealy Center for Vaccine Development and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, GNL, 301 University Blvd., Galveston, TX 77555 (United States); Pushko, Peter, E-mail: ppushko@medigen-usa.com [Medigen, Inc., 8420 Gas House Pike, Suite S, Frederick, MD 21701 (United States)

2016-03-15

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) represents a pandemic threat with no approved vaccine available. Recently, we described a novel vaccination strategy based on iDNA® infectious clone designed to launch a live-attenuated CHIKV vaccine from plasmid DNA in vitro or in vivo. As a proof of concept, we prepared iDNA plasmid pCHIKV-7 encoding the full-length cDNA of the 181/25 vaccine. The DNA-launched CHIKV-7 virus was prepared and compared to the 181/25 virus. Illumina HiSeq2000 sequencing revealed that with the exception of the 3′ untranslated region, CHIKV-7 viral RNA consistently showed a lower frequency of single-nucleotide polymorphisms than the 181/25 RNA including at the E2-12 and E2-82 residues previously identified as attenuating mutations. In the CHIKV-7, frequencies of reversions at E2-12 and E2-82 were 0.064% and 0.086%, while in the 181/25, frequencies were 0.179% and 0.133%, respectively. We conclude that the DNA-launched virus has a reduced probability of reversion mutations, thereby enhancing vaccine safety. - Highlights: • Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an emerging pandemic threat. • In vivo DNA-launched attenuated CHIKV is a novel vaccine technology. • DNA-launched virus was sequenced using HiSeq2000 and compared to the 181/25 virus. • DNA-launched virus has lower frequency of SNPs at E2-12 and E2-82 attenuation loci.

Next generation sequencing of DNA-launched Chikungunya vaccine virus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hidajat, Rachmat; Nickols, Brian; Forrester, Naomi; Tretyakova, Irina; Weaver, Scott; Pushko, Peter

2016-01-01

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) represents a pandemic threat with no approved vaccine available. Recently, we described a novel vaccination strategy based on iDNA® infectious clone designed to launch a live-attenuated CHIKV vaccine from plasmid DNA in vitro or in vivo. As a proof of concept, we prepared iDNA plasmid pCHIKV-7 encoding the full-length cDNA of the 181/25 vaccine. The DNA-launched CHIKV-7 virus was prepared and compared to the 181/25 virus. Illumina HiSeq2000 sequencing revealed that with the exception of the 3′ untranslated region, CHIKV-7 viral RNA consistently showed a lower frequency of single-nucleotide polymorphisms than the 181/25 RNA including at the E2-12 and E2-82 residues previously identified as attenuating mutations. In the CHIKV-7, frequencies of reversions at E2-12 and E2-82 were 0.064% and 0.086%, while in the 181/25, frequencies were 0.179% and 0.133%, respectively. We conclude that the DNA-launched virus has a reduced probability of reversion mutations, thereby enhancing vaccine safety. - Highlights: • Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an emerging pandemic threat. • In vivo DNA-launched attenuated CHIKV is a novel vaccine technology. • DNA-launched virus was sequenced using HiSeq2000 and compared to the 181/25 virus. • DNA-launched virus has lower frequency of SNPs at E2-12 and E2-82 attenuation loci.

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

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Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-01

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

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Daniela G Morato

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants. There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

(18)F-FDG PET/CT Findings in a Patient with Chikungunya Virus Infection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rose, Michala Vaaben; Kjaer, Anna Sophie L; Markova, Elena

2017-01-01

We present a case demonstrating the diagnostic work-up and follow-up of a patient with Chikungunya infection. An (18)F-FDG PET/CT performed four weeks after debut of symptoms revealed pathological (18)F-FDG uptake in enlarged lymph nodes on both side of the diaphragm, and inflammation of both...

Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

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Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-10-01

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R.A.

2005-01-01

The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found. (author)

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

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Atkins, Katherine E.; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S.; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L.; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.; Galvani, Alison P.

2016-01-01

The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. PMID:26928839

Trigocherrierin A, a Potent Inhibitor of Chikungunya Virus Replication

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Mélanie Bourjot

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Trigocherrierin A (1 and trigocherriolide E (2, two new daphnane diterpenoid orthoesters (DDOs, and six chlorinated analogues, trigocherrins A, B, F and trigocherriolides A–C, were isolated from the leaves of Trigonostemon cherrieri. Their structures were identified by mass spectrometry, extensive one- and two-dimensional NMR spectroscopy and through comparison with data reported in the literature. These compounds are potent and selective inhibitors of chikungunya virus (CHIKV replication. Among the DDOs isolated, compound 1 exhibited the strongest anti-CHIKV activity (EC50 = 0.6 ± 0.1 µM, SI = 71.7.

Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2009-01-01

Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

Social vulnerability and Ebola virus disease in rural Liberia

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John A. Stanturf; Scott L. Goodrick; Melvin L. Warren; Susan Charnley; Christie M. Stegall

2015-01-01

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that has stricken thousands of people in the three West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea highlights the lack of adaptive capacity in post-conflict countries. The scarcity of health services in particular renders these populations vulnerable to multiple interacting stressors including food insecurity, climate...

Chikungunya virus infection: report of the first case diagnosed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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Isabella Gomes Cavalcanti de Albuquerque

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Initially diagnosed in Africa and Asia, the Chikungunya virus has been detected in the last three years in the Caribbean, Italy, France, and the United States of America. Herein, we report the first case for Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2010.

Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.

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Malesios, C; Demiris, N; Abas, Z; Dadousis, K; Koutroumanidis, T

2014-10-01

Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates. We implement Bayesian stochastic regression models which, in addition to various explanatory variables like seasonal and environmental/meteorological factors, also contain serial correlation structure based on variants of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We take a predictive view in model selection by utilizing deviance-based measures. The results indicate that seasonality and the number of infected farms are important predictors for sheep pox incidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

2003-01-01

animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess...... techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate...... and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected...

Chikungunya outbreak in Al-Hudaydah, Yemen, 2011: epidemiological characterization and key lessons learned for early detection and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mnzava, Abraham; Mohareb, Emad; Zayed, Alia; Al Kohlani, Abdulhakeem; Thabet, Ahmed A K; El Bushra, Hassan

2014-09-01

Little is known about the occurrence of chikungunya fever in the Eastern Mediterranean Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). In January 2011, the Ministry of Public Health and Population (MoPH&P) of Yemen reported to WHO an increasing number of "dengue-like" acute febrile illnesses of unknown origin from one of its coastal governorates. An epidemiological investigation was conducted in Al-Hudaydah governorate between 23 and 26 January 2011 by a joint team of WHO, the MoPH&P of Yemen and the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU-3) in Cairo, Egypt. The investigation led to the detection of an outbreak of chikungunya in Yemen which was the first time ever from any of the 22 countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region of WHO. Appropriate public health control measures were strengthened following the investigation, and the outbreak was contained. This paper provides a short description of the outbreak and its epidemiological characteristics and highlights the important lessons that were learned for early detection and control of chikungunya in countries where competent vectors for transmission of the virus exist. Copyright © 2014 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

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Ting Liu

Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

IJzermans, C.J.

2002-01-01

Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

Preventing Zika disease with novel vector control approaches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Preventing Zika disease with novel vector control approaches. The highest numbers of dengue cases in Latin America in the last few years have occurred in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. These countries have also faced outbreaks of chikungunya (2014-2015) and Zika (2015-2016). All three diseases are transmitted by the ...

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

POST-HARVEST FUNGAL DISEASES OF PAWPAW ( CARICA ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Post-harvest fungal diseases of pawpaw (Carica papaya L.) fruits sold in Mile 3 Market, Port Harcourt were investigated bi-weekly for sixteen weeks using the Standard Blotter Method. The following fungi were isolated from the tissues of diseased fruits: Fusarium solani, Phoma carica-papaya Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus ...

Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Can; Xie, Jia-Rong; Chen, Han-Shuang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Tang, Ming

2015-10-01

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

Zika, dengue, and chikungunya co-infection in a pregnant woman from Colombia