WorldWideScience

Sample records for post-accident expert assessment

  1. Development of the post-accident expert assessment capacity of I.R.S.N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repussard, J.

    2008-01-01

    Emergency preparedness is a key feature of IRSN's mission within the French institutional organisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection. In the event of an accident, IRSN is expected to propose to authorities the appropriate technical decisions in order to safeguard public health, environmental protection, and to restore safety. The article discusses the nature of the challenges that IRSN would have to meet in order to implement its mission during the 'post-accident' phase, which would last a long time if a significative environmental contamination did occur. These four challenges shape the strategy chosen by IRSN to prepare itself for such an eventuality: - to ensure the readiness of its experts, and the validity of its doctrine for intervention, on the basis of research results and of accumulated practical experience, - to maintain state of the art metrology facilities and computer models which would be needed to operate IRSN's response, - to elaborate, and maintain through exercises, plans to mobilize efficiently for the purpose of post-accident operations IRSN's resources which are normally dedicated to other tasks, - the work conducted by IRSN would also be expected to contribute to confidence rebuilding across society, after a nuclear accident. Communication and transparency will play a major role for this, and IRSN's culture and values have to take this fully into account. The conclusion stresses the importance of resource allocation across the different missions of IRSN, the achievement of prevention of accidents through the safety analysis and research processes remaining of paramount importance, and emergency preparedness being the last line of defence. International cooperation is in this respect one of the better ways to enhanced efficiency. (author)

  2. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

    1987-11-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  3. Principles and techniques for post-accident assessment and recovery in a contaminated environment of a nuclear facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    To assist operators and public authorities alike in their advance preparation of emergency plans and in the establishment of emergency preparedness infrastructures, the IAEA has already issued several Safety Series publications dealing with these matters. This Safety Guide complements the technical guidance already published. It provides: a) Information and practical guidance relevant to assessing the off-site consequences during the late phase of a serious accident in a nuclear facility; b) Guidance on recovery operations off the site and the associated decision making process; and c) Proposals for consideration by national authorities regarding the organizational structure for the conduct of recovery operations. 52 refs, 8 figs, 4 tabs.

  4. Post-accident radiation monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laughlin, G.J.; Kathren, R.L.

    1982-01-01

    Under contract to the Nuclear Safety Analysis Center of the Electric Power Research Institute, technical information and specifications were obtained for commercially available radiological monitoring instrumentation designed for use as post-accident monitors. The information was collated and published in the NSAC Handbook of Postaccident Instrumentation (Kathren and Laughlin 1981), and included such data as range, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and energy dependence of the detector, environmental and seismic limitations of the equipment, the testing program performed to evaluate the equipment, a list of references where the instrumentation is currently installed, and a list of features and accessories available with the monitoring systems. The information presented in this section reveals that, even though a number of vendors claim to be able to meet the guidance of Regulatory Guide 1.97 (USNRC 1980), few have actually conducted tests to verify that their equipment does indeed satisfy the guidance of this Regulatory Guide, and that some of the guidance may in fact be unrealistic

  5. Chernobyl post-accident management: the ETHOS project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubreuil, G H; Lochard, J; Girard, P; Guyonnet, J F; Le Cardinal, G; Lepicard, S; Livolsi, P; Monroy, M; Ollagnon, H; Pena-Vega, A; Pupin, V; Rigby, J; Rolevitch, I; Schneider, T

    1999-10-01

    ETHOS is a pilot research project supported by the radiation protection research program of the European Commission (DG XII). The project provides an alternative approach to the rehabilitation of living conditions in the contaminated territories of the CIS in the post-accident context of Chernobyl. Initiated at the beginning of 1996, this 3-y project is currently being implemented in the Republic of Belarus. The ETHOS project involves an interdisciplinary team of European researchers from the following institutions: the Centre d'etude sur l'Evaluation de la Protection dans le domaine Nucleaire CEPN (radiological protection, economics), the Institute National d'Agronomie de Paris-Grignon INAPG (agronomy, nature & life management), the Compiegne University of Technology (technological and industrial safety, social trust), and the Mutadis Research Group (sociology, social risk management), which is in charge of the scientific co-ordination of the project. The Belarussian partners in the ETHOS project include the Ministry of Emergencies of Belarus as well as the various local authorities involved with the implementation site. The ETHOS project relies on a strong involvement of the local population in the rehabilitation process. Its main goal is to create conditions for the inhabitants of the contaminated territories to reconstruct their overall quality of life. This reconstruction deals with all the day-to-day aspects that have been affected or threatened by the contamination. The project aims at creating a dynamic process whereby acceptable living conditions can be rebuilt. Radiological security is developed in the ETHOS project as part of a general improvement in the quality of life. The approach does not dissociate the social and the technical dimensions of post-accident management. This is so as to avoid radiological risk assessment and management being reduced purely to a problem for scientific experts, from which local people are excluded, and to take into

  6. an expert assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.

    2016-01-01

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are ...

  7. The post-accident nuclear issue: the new crisis expertise challenges for the IRSN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champion, D.

    2010-01-01

    The author reports the work performed by two work groups conducted by the IRSN (the French Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute), the first one on the issue of assessment of radiological and dosimetric consequences in a post-accident situation, and the second one on hypotheses to be used to perform predictive assessments of these consequences. First dealing with the end of the emergency phase, he describes how to anticipate actions of protection against immediate post-accident consequences: orientation of the expertise strategy based on the CODIRPA's doctrine, post-accident zoning based on predictive indicators, use of reasonably prudent hypotheses for the first predictive assessments, importance of initial radioactive deposits to perform predictive assessments. Then, the author presents an iterative method of assessment of post-accident consequences: organization of environment radioactivity measurement programmes, periodic update of mapping of initial deposit and of actual deposits at a given time

  8. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  9. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  10. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  11. A quick look at the post accident review meeting (PARM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dastur, A.; Osborne, R.; Pendergast, D.; Primeau, D.B.; Snell, V.G.; Torgerson, D.

    1986-01-01

    The IAEA sponsored Post-Accident Review Meeting (PARM) for Chernobyl took place in Vienna from August 25 to 29, 1986. A report by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) and the group of experts supporting them is under preparation and will be available later in September. In view of the importance of the meeting, this report has been prepared by the AECL Conference delegation to provide more rapid feedback. Since digestion of the information will take much more time, we have attempted to stick to what we heard, avoiding speculation unless absolutely necessary. Since the Chernobyl event was so serious, it is essential that the root causes be identified, in order to avoid a related occurrence. It is necessary that the design and operation of CANDU reactors be carefully reviewed to identify, if any, of the lessons have any relevance. This must be done thoroughly and without complacency

  12. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  13. Radioactivity measurement for emergency or post-accident situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champion, D.

    2010-01-01

    Specific objectives have to be achieved by radioactivity measurements during emergency or post-accident situations, which are different from those in normal situation. At the beginning of a nuclear emergency, few radioactivity data will be available, mainly from automatic monitoring systems implemented on the site or in its surrounding. Progressively, measurement programmes will be performed, in priority to get information on dose rate, atmospheric radionuclides and surface activities. In order to avoid excessive exposure of the measure teams, these programmes should be optimized. During early post-accident phase, different types of measurements will be done, following two main objectives: 1) to improve the assessment of the environmental contamination and people exposure; 2) for control purpose, to check the contamination of urban places, foodstuff and other products, compared to specific reference levels. The samples measurement in laboratories would be a challenge: usually, the laboratories involved in routine monitoring have to deal with very low level of radioactivity and a poor diversity of artificial radionuclides; after a reactor accident, the environmental samples to be measured would be more active and with a mixture of radionuclides (mainly with short or middle half-life) difficult to be characterized. So theses laboratories have to be trained and organised before any severe accident. (author)

  14. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  15. French policy for managing the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallay, F; Godet, J L; Niel, J C

    2015-06-01

    In 2005, at the request of the French Government, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) established a Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident or a Radiological Emergency, with the objective of establishing a policy framework. Under the supervision of ASN, this Committee, involving several tens of experts from different backgrounds (e.g. relevant ministerial offices, expert agencies, local information commissions around nuclear installations, non-governmental organisations, elected officials, licensees, and international experts), developed a number of recommendations over a 7-year period. First published in November 2012, these recommendations cover the immediate post-emergency situation, and the transition and longer-term periods of the post-accident phase in the case of medium-scale nuclear accidents causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 h) that might occur at French nuclear facilities. They also apply to actions to be undertaken in the event of accidents during the transportation of radioactive materials. These recommendations are an important first step in preparation for the management of a post-accident situation in France in the case of a nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

  16. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  17. NEA international peer reviews of post-accident protection policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazo, T.

    2011-01-01

    For many years, the NEA has offered international peer reviews of national, high-level radioactive waste management policies and approaches. Until recently, this service had not been requested in the area of radiological protection. However, the 3. International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX-3, 2005-2006) addressed post-accident consequence management for the first time in a broad, international sense, and helped generate significant national reflections in this area. In particular, in 2005 the French government began an extensive programme of post-emergency consequence management planning, resulting in a draft national policy to address such situations. The Finnish government used the INEX-3 exercise as a vehicle to discuss post-emergency consequence management with a broad group of governmental and private stakeholders, and also began to develop national policy in this area. In order to further refine national efforts, the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) invited the NEA to perform in April 2011 its first international peer review in the radiological protection area focusing on its post-emergency consequence management policy under development. Finnish experts participated in this peer review team, and as a result, subsequently invited the NEA to perform an international peer review of its developing policy in this area in September 2011. These draft national policies and their international peer reviews are briefly presented in this paper. Feedback from both the French ASN and the Finnish STUK suggests that the detailed, external input provided by the international peer review teams have been extremely valuable in refining the content of the guides so that they are more clear, concise, understandable and implementable. It should be recalled that both national policy documents reviewed are far more detailed and extensive than described here. The intent of this article was not to provide a review of the national policies themselves, but rather to give an

  18. Direction Committee for the management of the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident or of a radiological event (CODIRPA). Work group 'Hypotheses'. Contextual data and hypotheses to perform predictive assessments of radiological and dose consequences at the beginning of a post-accidental transition phase. 2007-2009 work report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report first describes how to examine the various exposure ways of a person present on a contaminated territory and formulates hypotheses for the calculation of radioactive doses received by ingestion of contaminated food products, by external irradiation, or by involuntary inhalation of radioactive particles. It identifies factors which may influence the contamination of food products, and gives recommendations for the predictive calculation of their contamination during the first month following the accident. It indicates available methods for the predictive assessment of radioactive deposits at the beginning of the transition phase. It proposes an expertise method to assess the post-accident consequences

  19. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  20. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  1. The work programme of NERIS in post-accident recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, T; Andronopoulos, S; Camps, J; Duranova, T; Gallego, E; Gering, F; Isnard, O; Maître, M; Murith, C; Oughton, D; Raskob, W

    2018-01-01

    NERIS is the European platform on preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergency response and recovery. Created in 2010 with 57 organisations from 28 different countries, the objectives of the platform are to: improve the effectiveness and coherency of current approaches to preparedness; identify further development needs; improve 'know how' and technical expertise; and establish a forum for dialogue and methodological development. The NERIS Strategic Research Agenda is now structured with three main challenges: (i) radiological impact assessments during all phases of nuclear and radiological events; (ii) countermeasures and countermeasure strategies in emergency and recovery, decision support, and disaster informatics; and (iii) setting up a multi-faceted framework for preparedness for emergency response and recovery. The Fukushima accident has highlighted some key issues for further consideration in NERIS research activities, including: the importance of transparency of decision-making processes at local, regional, and national levels; the key role of access to environmental monitoring; the importance of dealing with uncertainties in assessment and management of the different phases of the accident; the use of modern social media in the exchange of information; the role of stakeholder involvement processes in both emergency and recovery situations; considerations of societal, ethical, and economic aspects; and the reinforcement of education and training for various actors. This paper emphasises the main issues at stake for NERIS for post-accident management.

  2. IRSN-Ancli seminar on the post-accident context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didier, Damien; Leroyer, Veronique; Gariel, Jean-Christophe; Meier, Christine; Petitfrere, Michael; Meraux-Netillard, Isabelle; Lerouxel, Roland; Gandouen, Gael; Boutin, Dominique; Charre, Jean-Pierre; Noe, Maite; Quenneville, Celine; Farandeau, Sebastien; Mouchet, Chantal; Pineau, Coralie; Rollinger, Francois; GARIEL, Jean-Christophe; Ando, Ryoko; Nishida, Shoshi; Miazaki, Makoto; Hayano, Ryugo; Lheureux, Yves; Lochard, Jacques; Boilley, David; Godet, Jean-Luc

    2014-10-01

    The first session addressed the context of post-accident management: main challenges of radiation protection in case of nuclear accident, management of energy situations (specific intervention plans of nuclear plants), elements of doctrine for the post-accident management of an accident. The second session addressed the preparedness of territories to post-accident management: preparation to post-accident management in the Montbeliard district, emergency and post-accidental situation (preparedness at the district scale, example of Loiret), and return on experience from the post-accident exercise in Cattenom. The third session addressed the action undertaken by the ANCCLI and IRSN for the awareness of post-accidental problematic (experiments in Saclay, Marcoule, Gravelines and Golfech, lessons learned from the pilot phase and perspectives). The last session addressed the post-accidental management of the Fukushima accident: approach of the IRSN to learn lessons from the dialogue initiative in Fukushima, round table on challenges on the long term of post-accidental management, Japanese witnesses

  3. Lessons learned from post-accident management at Chernobyl: the P.a.r.e.x. project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Lochard, J.; Bataille, C.; Ollagnon, H.; Baude, St.

    2008-01-01

    Return of experience on Chernobyl post-accident management: the PAREX study Belarus is the country the most affected by the Chernobyl fallouts and is among the most significant experiences in the nuclear post-accident field. Despite specificities inherent to the political and social situation in Belarus, the experience of post-accidental management in this country holds a wealth of lessons in the perspective of preparation to a post-accidental situation in the French and European context. Through the PAREX project (2005-2006), the French Nuclear Safety Authority analysed the return of experience of Chernobyl post-accident management from 1986 to 2005 in order to draw its lessons in the perspective of a preparation policy. The study was led by a group of experts and involved the participation of a pluralistic group of about thirty participants (public authorities, local governments, NGOs, experts, operators). PAREX highlighted the complexity of a situation of long-lasting radioactive contamination (diversity of stakeholders and of dimensions at stake: health, environment, economy, society...). Beyond traditional public crisis management tools and frameworks, post-accident strategies also involves in the longer term a territorial and social response, which relies on local capacities of initiative. Preparation to such process requires experimenting new modes of operation that allow a diversity of local actors to take part to the response to a situation of contamination and to the surveillance system, with the support of public authorities. The conclusions of PAREX include a set of recommendations in this perspective. (authors)

  4. The role of post accident chemistry data in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradshaw, R.W.; Caruthers, G.F.

    1982-01-01

    The NRC instituted the NUREG-0737 requirements as implementation of the Post-TMI Action Plan in October, 1980. Among these requirements was the capability to obtain chemistry samples of the reactor coolant and containment building atmosphere under post accident conditions. The quantitative criteria were, in general, beyond the capabilities of existing plant systems. As a consequence the nuclear industry expended substantial efforts to design and install the post-accident sampling systems necessary to comply with these criteria. With such efforts essentially complete, the task remains to establish the role that data provided by these systems would play in mitigating the consequences of a nuclear plant accident. This role definition must include a characterization of the timing and priority for the post accident chemistry data. This paper defines that role using the Safety Level and Safety Function concepts as a matrix

  5. Populations protection and territories management in nuclear emergency and post-accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourrel, M.; Calmon, Ph.; Calvez, M.; Chambrette, V.; Champion, D.; Devin, P.; Godino, O.; Lombard, J.; Rzepka, J.P.; Schneider, Th.; Verhaeghe, B.; Cogez, E.; Kayser, O.; Guenon, C.; Jourdain, J.R.; Bouchot, E.; Murith, Ch.; Lochard, J.; Cluchier, A.; Vandecasteele, Ch.; Pectorin, X.; Dubiau, Ph.; Gerphagnon, O.; Roche, H.; Cessac, B.; Cochard, A.; Machenaud, G.; Jourdain, J.R.; Pirard, Ph.; Leger, M.; Bouchot, E.; Demet, M.; Charre, J.P.; Poumadere, M.; Cogez, E.

    2010-01-01

    for the management of post-accident consequences: agricultural activities and exit of the emergency stage (B. Cessac); 18 - presentation of the operational means of the GIE Groupe Intra (A. Cochard); 19 - synthetical presentation of the studies of post-accident management conditions in the milk industry (G. Machenaud); 20 - reconstruction of doses received by exposed populations (J.R. Jourdain); 21 - organisation of the health monitoring of populations after a radiological accident - presentation taken from the recommendations of the Codirpa's working group 'health stakes' (P. Pirard); 22 - losses indemnification in case of nuclear accident (M. Leger); 23 - post nuclear accident communication - reflections of the Codirpa's working group 'communication' (E. Bouchot); 24 - the ANCCLI's permanent group 'territories - post-accident' (M. Demet); 25 - experience feedback from the local information commission (CLI) 'Marcoule-Gard' in the management of a post-accident situation (J.P. Charre); 26 - commitment of intervening parties in the preparation to accident and post-accident situations: European experiences (T. Schneider); 27 - socio-cognitive exposure and risk assessment - the radio waves case (M. Poumadere). (J.S.)

  6. A Human Reliability Analysis of Post- Accident Human Errors in the Low Power and Shutdown PSA of KSNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Daeil; Kim, J. H.; Jang, S. C

    2007-03-15

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, using the ANS low power and shutdown (LPSD) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Standard, evaluated the LPSD PSA model of the KSNP, Yonggwang Units 5 and 6, and identified the items to be improved. The evaluation results of human reliability analysis (HRA) of the post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP showed that 10 items among 19 items of supporting requirements for those in the ANS PRA Standard were identified as them to be improved. Thus, we newly carried out a HRA for post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP. Following tasks are the improvements in the HRA of post-accident human errors of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP compared with the previous one: Interviews with operators in the interpretation of the procedure, modeling of operator actions, and the quantification results of human errors, site visit. Applications of limiting value to the combined post-accident human errors. Documentation of information of all the input and bases for the detailed quantifications and the dependency analysis using the quantification sheets The assessment results for the new HRA results of post-accident human errors using the ANS LPSD PRA Standard show that above 80% items of its supporting requirements for post-accident human errors were graded as its Category II. The number of the re-estimated human errors using the LPSD Korea Standard HRA method is 385. Among them, the number of individual post-accident human errors is 253. The number of dependent post-accident human errors is 135. The quantification results of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP with new HEPs show that core damage frequency (CDF) is increased by 5.1% compared with the previous baseline CDF It is expected that this study results will be greatly helpful to improve the PSA quality for the domestic nuclear power plants because they have sufficient PSA quality to meet the Category II of Supporting Requirements for the post-accident

  7. A Human Reliability Analysis of Post- Accident Human Errors in the Low Power and Shutdown PSA of KSNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Daeil; Kim, J. H.; Jang, S. C.

    2007-03-01

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, using the ANS low power and shutdown (LPSD) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Standard, evaluated the LPSD PSA model of the KSNP, Yonggwang Units 5 and 6, and identified the items to be improved. The evaluation results of human reliability analysis (HRA) of the post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP showed that 10 items among 19 items of supporting requirements for those in the ANS PRA Standard were identified as them to be improved. Thus, we newly carried out a HRA for post-accident human errors in the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP. Following tasks are the improvements in the HRA of post-accident human errors of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP compared with the previous one: Interviews with operators in the interpretation of the procedure, modeling of operator actions, and the quantification results of human errors, site visit. Applications of limiting value to the combined post-accident human errors. Documentation of information of all the input and bases for the detailed quantifications and the dependency analysis using the quantification sheets The assessment results for the new HRA results of post-accident human errors using the ANS LPSD PRA Standard show that above 80% items of its supporting requirements for post-accident human errors were graded as its Category II. The number of the re-estimated human errors using the LPSD Korea Standard HRA method is 385. Among them, the number of individual post-accident human errors is 253. The number of dependent post-accident human errors is 135. The quantification results of the LPSD PSA model for the KSNP with new HEPs show that core damage frequency (CDF) is increased by 5.1% compared with the previous baseline CDF It is expected that this study results will be greatly helpful to improve the PSA quality for the domestic nuclear power plants because they have sufficient PSA quality to meet the Category II of Supporting Requirements for the post-accident

  8. CHOOZ-A expert assessment program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouat, M.; Godin, R.

    1993-01-01

    CHOOZ-A Nuclear Power Plant, the first French-Belgian PWR unit (300 MWe) was definitively shut down at the end of October 1991, after 24 years in operation. Since summer 1991, the steering committee of the French (EDF) Lifetime Project has initiated a large inquiry to the different technical specialists of EDF and external organizations, trying to define a wide expert assessment program on this plant. The aim is to improve the knowledge of aging mechanisms such as those observed on the 52 PWR French nuclear power plants (900 and 1,300 MWe), and contribute to the validation of non-destructive in-service testing methods. This paper presents the retained CHOOZ-A expert assessment program and technical lines followed during its set up. First major project stages are described, then technical choices are explained, and at last the final program is presented with the specific content of each expert assessment. The definitive program is scheduled for a three year period starting at the moment of final shutdown license acquisition, with a provisional total budget of more than US $10 million

  9. The post-accidents exploitation of Chernobyl NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nosovskij, A.V.

    1996-01-01

    Problems facing the Chernobyl NPP personnel since its commissioning and during its post-accident operation are considered. The accomplished measures on improving the power units safety, normalization of the radiation situation as well as the impact of psychological factor at the safety culture level are discussed

  10. Stress in accident and post-accident management at Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girard, P.; Dubreuil, G.H.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on the psychology of the affected population have been much discussed. The psychological dimension has been advanced as a factor explaining the emergence, from 1990 onwards, of a post-accident crisis in the main CIS countries affected. This article presents the conclusions of a series of European studies, which focused on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. These studies show that the psychological and social effects associated with the post-accident situation arise from the interdependency of a number of complex factors exerting a deleterious effect on the population. We shall first attempt to characterise the stress phenomena observed among the population affected by the accident. Secondly, we will be presenting an anlysis of the various factors that have contributed to the emerging psychological and social features of population reaction to the accident and in post-accident phases, while not neglecting the effects of the pre-accident situation on the target population. Thirdly, we shall devote some initial consideration to the conditions that might be conducive to better management of post-accident stress. In conclusion, we shall emphasise the need to restore confidence among the population generally. (Author)

  11. [Determinant factors and conduct in post-accident with biological material among pre-hospital professionals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Maria Henriqueta Rocha Siqueira; Oliveira, Adriana Cristina

    2011-01-01

    This transversal study was carried out with a multiprofessional team in the pre-hospital care in Minas Gerais, Brazil. It aimed to estimate the incidence of occupational accidents by exposure to biological material and post-accidents conductsta. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used. Incidence of accidents was 19.8%: 39,1% perforating-cutting materials and 56.5% body fluids. Doctors (33.3%) and drivers (24.0%) were most involved. Inadequate subsequent measures were highly prevalent: no medical assessment (69.6%), no work accident communication issued (91.3%), no measures (52.2%) and no serological follow-up (52.2%). Variables associated with accidents were: age >31 years old (OR = 3,02; IC95%: 1,25 - 7,33; p = 0,014) and working in basic support units (OR = 5,36; IC95%: 1,51 19,08; p = 0,010). The implementation of post-accidents protocols is suggested in order to reduce accidents and under-notification, and increase post-accident follow-up.

  12. Post-accident core coolability of light water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michio, I.; Teruo, I.; Tomio, Y.; Tsutao, H.

    1983-01-01

    A study on post-accident core coolability of LWR is discussed based on the practical fuel failure behavior experienced in NSRR, PBF, PNS and others. The fuel failure behavior at LOCA, RIA and PCM conditions are reviewed, and seven types of fuel failure modes are extracted as the basic failure mechanism at accident conditions. These are: cladding melt or brittle failure, molten UO 2 failure, high temperature cladding burst, low temperature cladding burst, failure due to swelling of molten UO 2 , failure due to cracks of embrittled cladding for irradiated fuel rods, and TMI-2 core failure. The post-accident core coolability at each failure mode is discussed. The fuel failures caused actual flow blockage problems. A characteristic which is common among these types is that the fuel rods are in the conditions violating the present safety criteria for accidents, and UO 2 pellets are in melting or near melting hot conditions when the fuel rods failed

  13. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  14. Post accident training program design at Three Mile Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawyer, L.L.

    1981-01-01

    The TMI preaccident training staff typically consisted of 9 professional and 3 administrative support persons. Procedures were prepared and facilities designated for operator training. The thrust of the post accident effort was directed to expanding the training function to include all other personnel while modifying the operator training to address lessons learned. Significant experiences were encountered in part task simulation, job and task analysis, decision analysis and with various external committees. These experiences led to specific opinions on industry needs in the areas of staffing, regulation, importance of training and contractor assistance

  15. Post-accident fuel relocation and heat removal in the LMFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimi, M.S.; Tsai, S.S.; Gasser, R.D.

    1976-08-01

    Assessment of the dynamics of post-accident fuel relocation and heat removal is an important aspect of the evaluation of the consequences of a hypothetical accident in an LMFBR. Such an assessment is of particular importance in the evaluation of the post-accident radiological doses around the reactor site. In the present evaluation particular attention is given to the design features of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBR). Fuel relocation and heat removal, assuming certain conditions have resulted in core disruption, are discussed. The discussion of events and phenomena involved in the relocation processes is centered around the resulting patterns of heat source distribution. The factors influencing fuel relocation and distribution in the inlet and outlet plena of the reactor vessel are discussed. The current technology of in-vessel heat removal is applied to the design of the CRBR reactor. Both fuel debris cooling limits and overall coolant flow in the reactor under natural convection conditions are explored. Some of the uncertainties in ex-vessel fuel behavior are addressed. In particular, the effect of melting the cavity bed on the rate of growth of a molten fuel pool is investigated

  16. Optimization guidance to post-accident intervention: a specific case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Ramirez, J.E.; Reyes-Sanchez, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    ICRP recommends the application of the system of protection to intervention situations, i.e. those in which exposure pathways are already present; e.g the public exposure following an accident. This implies that intervention must be justified and optimized, being the optimization the process of deciding the nature of protective action in order to obtain the maximum net benefit. This paper provides an example of one optimization model to guide a decision making process in a specific case of post-accident intervention. The involved scenario postulates the contamination of big quantities of reinforcing steel bars used in construction industry, and a lot of them present in the structure of several dwellings. Inhabitants of these dwellings must be protected and the proposed action is to demolish those homes exceeding some intervention criterion. The objective of this study is to reach such intervention level trough an optimization process economically focused. (author)

  17. The post-accident nuclear issue: the new crisis expertise challenges for the IRSN; Post-accidentel nucleaire: les nouveaux challenges de l'expertise de crise a L'IRSN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Champion, D. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Direction de l' environnement et de l' intervention, 78 - Le Vesinet (France)

    2010-07-01

    The author reports the work performed by two work groups conducted by the IRSN (the French Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute), the first one on the issue of assessment of radiological and dosimetric consequences in a post-accident situation, and the second one on hypotheses to be used to perform predictive assessments of these consequences. First dealing with the end of the emergency phase, he describes how to anticipate actions of protection against immediate post-accident consequences: orientation of the expertise strategy based on the CODIRPA's doctrine, post-accident zoning based on predictive indicators, use of reasonably prudent hypotheses for the first predictive assessments, importance of initial radioactive deposits to perform predictive assessments. Then, the author presents an iterative method of assessment of post-accident consequences: organization of environment radioactivity measurement programmes, periodic update of mapping of initial deposit and of actual deposits at a given time

  18. USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

  19. TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

    1988-01-01

    TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

  20. 77 FR 10666 - Pipeline Safety: Post Accident Drug and Alcohol Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-23

    ... 199 [Docket No. PHMSA-2011-0335] Pipeline Safety: Post Accident Drug and Alcohol Testing AGENCY... operators of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities to conduct post- accident drug and alcohol tests of..., operators must drug and alcohol test each covered employee whose performance either contributed to the...

  1. Main post-accident management stakes: IRSN's point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre Oudiz

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Off site management of a radiological crisis covers two phases which need to be clearly distinguished even if there are links between them: emergency phase and recovery phase (also called late or post-accident phase). The presentation will deal with the latter, rather neglected up until recently, but conveying special attention from now on in France and at the international level. It is clear now that the long term management of a radiological or nuclear crisis cannot be reduced to merely site decontamination. Actually, environmental decontamination considerations would be only one amongst other essential economical, social, health, psychological, cultural, and symbolical concerns. This is why off site management of a radiological crisis requires innovative governance, in order to challenge such a complexity. This need for challenge led IRSN to have on the go technical developments and new governance modes reflection. 1) Technical developments: they deal with implementing an organisation, a set of methods, a platform of technical tools which would allow the stakeholders to carry out efficiently their mission during the recovery phase. For example, countermeasures for agricultural and urban rehabilitation are developed within the framework of the 6. PCRDT EURANOS programme. Teams from several countries are involved in common elaboration of rehabilitation strategies based on the best available knowledge. Besides this, simple operational decision aiding tools for the stakeholders (local administration, elected representatives, professional agricultural groups, etc.) are currently developed by IRSN within the framework of the nuclear post-accident exercises. IRSN is also involved in doctrinal reflections about the respective roles of radioactive measurements in the environment and radiological consequences calculation during emergency and recovery phases. Criteria for emergency countermeasures withdrawal are also currently under

  2. GOTHIC analysis of post-accident hydrogen mixing behaviour in CANDU fuelling machine vault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yim, K.; Wong, R.C.; Fluke, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    The GOTHIC code was used to assess the post-accident hydrogen gas mixing patterns in a CANDU reactor containment and demonstrate the acceptability of Ontario Hydro Nuclear's hydrogen mitigation methods. The fuelling machine vault, being a small volume room containing major reactor piping, is the room of most concern with respect to hydrogen concentrations. Detailed three dimensional modelling of the gas mixing patterns in the fuelling machine vault was completed. Results showed that, even without forced air circulation, there is enough dispersion of hydrogen to other parts of containment to preclude the build-up of sensitive mixtures in the vault. For a brief time during the peak period of hydrogen release, hydrogen concentrations rise to close to the lower ignition limit in a small portion of the vault, but these hydrogen-steam-air mixtures are considered acceptable. Natural mixing alone is sufficient to preclude damaging hydrogen burns. (author)

  3. Design considerations for post accident monitoring system of a research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Gwi Sook; Park, Je Yun; Kim, Young Ki

    2012-01-01

    The Post Accident Monitoring System (PAMS) provides primary information for operators to assess the plant conditions and perform their role in bringing the plant to a safe condition during an accident. The PAMS of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) in KOREA provides the continuous display of the PAM category 1 parameters specified in R.G 1.97, Rev. 03. Recently the PAMS of NPP has been designed according to R.G 1.97, Rev. 04. There is no PAMS at the HANARO in KOREA, but recently RRs (Research Reactors) around the world are going to have PAMS for various multi purposes. We should determine the design considerations for PAMS in a Korean RR based on the design state analysis. Thus, this paper proposes strategies on the design considerations for the PAMS of a Korean RR

  4. Post-accident monitoring systems in Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suriya Murthy, N.; Sivasailanathan, Vidhya; Ananth, Allu; Roy, Kallol

    2018-01-01

    PFBR is a 500 MW(e) MOX fueled and sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR) under advanced stage of commissioning at Kalpakkam. Currently, the main vessel is preheated and sodium has been charged into two secondary loops that are operated in recirculation mode. In order to characterize the radiation field and contamination, the workplace monitoring is undertaken using installed monitors that are commissioned and made operational. This helps to ensure radiological protection during normal operating conditions. On the other hand, radiological monitoring in emergency conditions is quite different. For undertaking the mitigative accident management, a set of specialized nuclear instruments called post-accident monitoring systems (PAMS) which include radiation monitors are stipulated. The Fukushima Daiichi accident emphasized the importance and need for reliable accident monitoring instrumentation to indicate the safety functions during the progression and aftermath of accident in NPP. In PFBR, the PAMS are integrated with other monitoring systems in design stage itself to manage the measurements and indicating the safety functions for implementing EOP and SAMG

  5. Expert systems for fetal assessment in labour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutomski, J.E.; Meaney, S.; Greene, R.A.; Ryan, A.C.; Devane, D.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cardiotocography (CTG) records the fetal heart rate in relation to maternal uterine contractions and is one of the most common forms of fetal assessment during labour. Despite guidelines for CTG interpretation, substantial inter- and intra-observer variation in interpretation has been

  6. Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amann, F.; Vogelhuber, M.

    2015-11-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature

  7. Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amann, F. [Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETHZ, Zürich (Switzerland); Vogelhuber, M. [Dr. von Moos AG, Geotechnisches Büro, Zürich (Switzerland)

    2015-11-15

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature.

  8. [Essential aspects of ophthalmological expert assessment in private accident insurance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tost, F

    2014-06-01

    Commissions for an expert assessment place basically high demands on commissioned eye specialists because this activity differs from the normal routine field of work. In addition to assessing objective symptoms and subjective symptomatics in a special analytical manner, eye specialists are expected to have knowledge of basic legal terminology, such as proximate cause, evidence and evidential value. Only under these prerequisites can an ophthalmologist fulfill the function of an expert with a high level of quality and adequately adjust the special medical ophthalmological expertise to the requirements of the predominantly legally based clients commissioning the report and oriented to the appropriate valid legal norms. Particularly common difficulties associated with making an ophthalmological expert report for private accident insurance, e.g. determination of the reduction in functional quality, consideration of partial causality and assessment of diplopia are discussed.

  9. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  10. Application of fuzzy expert system on LILW performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, F.L. de; Sullivan, T.

    2002-01-01

    A complete LILW repository performance assessment requires the involvement between several experts in many fields of science. Many sources of uncertainties arise due to complexity of interaction of environmental parameters, lack of data and ignorance, this makes predictive analysis and interpretation difficult. This difficulty in understanding the impact of the ambiguities is even higher when it comes to public and decision makers involvement. Traditional methods of data analysis, while having strong mathematical basis, many times are not adequate to deal with ambiguous data. These ambiguities can be an obstacle to make the results easier to understand and defensible. A methodology of decision making, based on fuzzy logic, can help the interaction between experts, decision makers and the public. This method is the basis of an expert system which can help the analysis of very complex and ambiguous processes. (author)

  11. Assessment and management of agitation in psychiatry: Expert consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garriga, Marina; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kasper, Siegfried; Zeller, Scott L; Allen, Michael H; Vázquez, Gustavo; Baldaçara, Leonardo; San, Luis; McAllister-Williams, R Hamish; Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Courtet, Philippe; Naber, Dieter; Chan, Esther W; Fagiolini, Andrea; Möller, Hans Jürgen; Grunze, Heinz; Llorca, Pierre Michel; Jaffe, Richard L; Yatham, Lakshmi N; Hidalgo-Mazzei, Diego; Passamar, Marc; Messer, Thomas; Bernardo, Miquel; Vieta, Eduard

    2016-01-01

    Psychomotor agitation is associated with different psychiatric conditions and represents an important issue in psychiatry. Current recommendations on agitation in psychiatry are not univocal. Actually, an improper assessment and management may result in unnecessary coercive or sedative treatments. A thorough and balanced review plus an expert consensus can guide assessment and treatment decisions. An expert task force iteratively developed consensus using the Delphi method. Initial survey items were based on systematic review of the literature. Subsequent surveys included new, re-worded or re-rated items. Out of 2175 papers assessing psychomotor agitation, 124 were included in the review. Each component was assigned a level of evidence. Integrating the evidence and the experience of the task force members, a consensus was reached on 22 statements on this topic. Recommendations on the assessment of agitation emphasise the importance of identifying any possible medical cause. For its management, experts agreed in considering verbal de-escalation and environmental modification techniques as first choice, considering physical restraint as a last resort strategy. Regarding pharmacological treatment, the "ideal" medication should calm without over-sedate. Generally, oral or inhaled formulations should be preferred over i.m. routes in mildly agitated patients. Intravenous treatments should be avoided.

  12. Lessons learned from post-accident management at Chernobyl: the P.a.r.e.x. project; Retour d'experience sur la gestion post-accidentelle de Tchernobyl: le projet Parex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heriard Dubreuil, G. [Mutadis Consultants, 75 - Paris (France); Lochard, J.; Bataille, C. [CEPN, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France); Ollagnon, H. [AgroParisTech, 75 - Paris (France); Baude, St. [Mutadis, 75 - Paris (France)

    2008-07-15

    Return of experience on Chernobyl post-accident management: the PAREX study Belarus is the country the most affected by the Chernobyl fallouts and is among the most significant experiences in the nuclear post-accident field. Despite specificities inherent to the political and social situation in Belarus, the experience of post-accidental management in this country holds a wealth of lessons in the perspective of preparation to a post-accidental situation in the French and European context. Through the PAREX project (2005-2006), the French Nuclear Safety Authority analysed the return of experience of Chernobyl post-accident management from 1986 to 2005 in order to draw its lessons in the perspective of a preparation policy. The study was led by a group of experts and involved the participation of a pluralistic group of about thirty participants (public authorities, local governments, NGOs, experts, operators). PAREX highlighted the complexity of a situation of long-lasting radioactive contamination (diversity of stakeholders and of dimensions at stake: health, environment, economy, society...). Beyond traditional public crisis management tools and frameworks, post-accident strategies also involves in the longer term a territorial and social response, which relies on local capacities of initiative. Preparation to such process requires experimenting new modes of operation that allow a diversity of local actors to take part to the response to a situation of contamination and to the surveillance system, with the support of public authorities. The conclusions of PAREX include a set of recommendations in this perspective. (authors)

  13. Post-accident heat removal research: A state of the art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, U.; Schulenberg, T.

    1983-11-01

    For a realistic assessment of the consequence of extremely unlikely reactor accidents resulting in core degradation or core meltdown key questions are how to remove the decay heat from the reactor system and how to retain the radioactive core debris within the containment. Usually, this complex of questions is referred to as Post-Accident Heat Removal (PAHR). In this article the research work on PAHR performed by various institutions during the last decade has been reviewed. The main results have been summarized under the chapter headings ''Accident Scenarios,'' - ''Core Debris Accommodation Concepts,'' and ''PAHR Topics.'' Particular emphasis has been placed on the presentation of the following problems: characteristics and coolability of solid core debris in the vector vessel, heat removal from molten pools of core material, and core-melt interaction with structural materials. Some unresolved or insufficiently answered questions relating to special ''PAHR Topics'' have been mentioned or discussed at the end of the particular Chapter. Problem areas of major uncertainty have been identified and listed at the end of the review article. They include the following subjects: formation of debris beds and bed characteristics, post dryout behaviour of particle beds, long-term availability and proper location of heat sinks, creep rupture of structures under high thermal loads. (orig.) [de

  14. System Design Strategies of Post-Accident Monitoring System for a PGSFR in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Gwi-sook; Jeong, Kwang-il; Keum, Jong-yong; Seong, Seung-hwan

    2013-06-01

    Monitoring systems of a PGSFR (Prototype Gen-IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) in Korea provide alarms, integrity information in the reactor building, sodium-water reaction information in the steam generator, fuel failure information, and supporting information for maintenance and inspection. In particular, a Post-Accident Monitoring System (PAMS) provides primary information for operators to assess the plant conditions and perform their role in bringing the plant to a safe condition during an accident. Some PAM variables can be allocated as more two types. It is important for system designers to confirm the suitability of the selection of PAM variables. In addition, the PAMS is a position 4 display against common cause failures of safety I and C systems. The position 4 display should be independent and diverse from the safety I and C systems. The diversity of safety I and C equipment has led to an increase in the design and verification and validation cost. Thus, this paper proposes the system design strategies on the PAMS design problems of the PGSFR in KOREA. The results will be input into a conceptual system design for the PAMS of the PGSFR in KOREA. (authors)

  15. Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alenin P.N.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

  16. Nuclear post-accident communication: reflections of CODIR-PA's 'Communication' work group (GT8)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This document briefly presents the approach adopted in France to define a communication doctrine to be applied in a post-accident situation, to make practical recommendations to actors, and to develop practical tools (speech elements). It evokes the main themes dealt with (such as safety culture, communication, etc.) by a specific work group

  17. Management of a radiological emergency. Experience feedback and post-accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubiau, Ph.

    2007-01-01

    In France, the organization of crisis situations and the management of radiological emergency situations are regularly tested through simulation exercises for a continuous improvement. Past severe accidents represent experience feedback resources of prime importance which have led to deep changes in crisis organizations. However, the management of the post-accident phase is still the object of considerations and reflections between the public authorities and the intervening parties. This document presents, first, the nuclear crisis exercises organized in France, then, the experience feedback of past accidents and exercises, and finally, the main aspects to consider for the post-accident management of such events: 1 - Crisis exercises: objectives, types (local, national and international exercises), principles and progress, limits; 2 - Experience feedback: real crises (major accidents, other recent accidental situations or incidents), crisis exercises (experience feedback organization, improvements); 3 - post-accident management: environmental contamination and people exposure, management of contaminated territories, management of populations (additional protection, living conditions, medical-psychological follow up), indemnification, organization during the post-accident phase; 4 - conclusion and perspectives. (J.S.)

  18. Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

  19. Psychical and social effects related to post-accident situations: some training of Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochand, J.

    1995-01-01

    Some preliminary considerations on the psychic and societal dimensions related to post-accident situations connected to large scale and heavy land contamination are presented. This is done with the objective of exploring the role that these dimensions could play in the elaboration of new radiological protection principles and concepts in order to restore confidence among affected populations after a nuclear accident. It is important to facilitate the return to normal or, at least, acceptable living conditions, as soon as reasonably achievable, and to prevent the possible emergence of a post-accident crisis. A scheme is proposed for understanding the dynamics of the various phases after an accident, taking into account the collective response to the consequences as well as, the response to the countermeasures. (Author)

  20. Commitment of involved actors in the preparation of accidental and post-accident situations: European experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Th.

    2010-01-01

    The author briefly describes some approaches developed within the EURANOS European research programme between 2004 and 2009 which aims at promoting the building up of a European network (NERIS) for the management of nuclear accidental and post-accident situations. Notably, he comments the experiment which took place in the Montbeliard district where two types of radiological events have been modelled and simulated: an accident in the Fessenheim nuclear power plant with two scenarios of release, and a transportation accident with a release of radioactive caesium 137. He also evokes the Norwegian experience and some other actions in Finland, Great-Britain, Spain and Slovakia where reflections on the management of accidental and post-accident situations or crisis exercises have been organized

  1. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  2. Policy elements for post-accident management in the event of nuclear accident. Document drawn up by the Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident (CODIRPA). Final version - 5 October 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Pursuant to the Inter-ministerial Directive on the Action of the Public Authorities, dated 7 April 2005, in the face of an event triggering a radiological emergency, the National directorate on nuclear safety and radiation protection (DGSNR), which became the Nuclear safety authority (ASN) in 2006, was tasked with working the relevant Ministerial offices in order to set out the framework and outline, prepare and implement the provisions needed to address post-accident situations arising from a nuclear accident. In June 2005, the ASN set up a Steering committee for the management of the post-accident phase in the event of nuclear accident or a radiological emergency situation (CODIRPA), put in charge of drafting the related policy elements. To carry out its work, CODIRPA set up a number of thematic working groups from 2005 on, involving in total several hundred experts from different backgrounds (local information commissions, associations, elected officials, health agencies, expertise agencies, authorities, etc.). The working groups reports have been published by the ASN. Experiments on the policy elements under construction were carried out at the local level in 2010 across three nuclear sites and several of the neighbouring municipalities, as well as during national crisis drills conducted since 2008. These works gave rise to two international conferences organised by ASN in 2007 and 2011. The policy elements prepared by CODIRPA were drafted in regard to nuclear accidents of medium scale causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 hours) that might occur at French nuclear facilities equipped with a special intervention plan (PPI). They also apply to actions to be carried out in the event of accidents during the transport of radioactive materials. Following definitions of each stage of a nuclear accident, this document lists the principles selected by CODIRPA to support management efforts subsequent to a nuclear accident. Then, it presents the main

  3. Psychological and social impacts of post-accident situations: lessons from the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the main features, from the psychological and social points of view, of the post-accident situation in the contaminated areas around Chernobyl. This is based on a series of surveys performed in the concerned territories of the CIS republics. The high level of stress affecting a large segment of the population is related to the perception of the situation by those living in a durably contaminated environment but also to the side-effects of some of the countermeasures adopted to mitigate the radiological consequences or to compensate the affected population. The distinction between the accident and the post-accident phase is enlarged to take into account the various phases characterizing the dynamics of the social response. Although the size of the catastrophe as well as the economic and political conditions that were prevailing at the time and after the accident have resulted in a maximal intensity of the reactions of the population, many lessons can be drawn for the management of potential post-accident situations. (author)

  4. ASSESSMENT OF POWER QUALITY DISTURBANCE USING EXPERT SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    A.N.MALLESWARA RAO,; Dr. K.RAMESH REDDY,; Dr. B.V.SANKER RAM

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a fuzzy expert system in order to understand and deal with power quality problems encountered in distribution systems in a better way. Because of the technology and software now available this monitoring is highly effective, the fuzzy expert system not only can provide information about the quality of the power and the causes of power system disturbances, but it can identify problem conditions throughout the system before they cause widespread customer complains and equip...

  5. How does the medical graduates' self-assessment of their clinical competency differ from experts' assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The assessment of the performance of medical school graduates during their first postgraduate years provides an early indicator of the quality of the undergraduate curriculum and educational process. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical competency of medical graduates, as perceived by the graduates themselves and by the experts. Methods This is a hospital based cross-sectional study. It covered 105 medical graduates and 63 experts selected by convenient sampling method. A self-administered questionnaire covering the different areas of clinical competency constructed on a five-point Likert scale was used for data collection. Data processing and analysis were performed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) 16.0. The mean, frequency distribution, and percentage of the variables were calculated. A non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test was applied to verify whether the graduates' and experts' assessments were influenced by the graduates' variables such as age, gender, experience, type of hospital, specialty and location of work at a (p ≤ 0.05) level of significance. Results The overall mean scores for experts' and graduates' assessments were 3.40 and 3.63, respectively (p= 0.035). Almost 87% of the graduates perceived their competency as good and very good in comparison with only 67.7% by experts. Female and male graduates who rated themselves as very good were 33.8% and 25% respectively. More than 19% of the graduates in the age group > 30 years perceived their clinical competency as inadequate in contrast with only 6.2% of the graduates in the youngest age group. Experts rated 40% of the female graduates as inadequate versus 20% of males, (p= 0.04). More than 40% of the graduates in younger age group were rated by experts as inadequate, versus 9.7% of the higher age group >30 years (p = 0.03). Conclusion There was a wide discrepancy between the graduates' self-assessment and experts' assessment, particularly in the level

  6. Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

    1990-05-01

    This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

  7. Development of an accident management expert system for containment assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Sebo, D.E.; Haney, L.N.

    1987-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRSC) is sponsoring a program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to develop an accident management expert system. The intended users of the system are the personnel of the NRC Operations Center in Washington, D.C. The expert system will be used to help NRC personnel monitor and evaluate the status and management of the containment during a severe reactor accident. The knowledge base will include severe accident knowledge regarding the maintenance of the critical safety functions, especially containment integrity, during an accident. This paper summarizes the concepts that have been developed for the accident management expert system, and the plans that have been developed for its implementation

  8. NDT-based bridge condition assessment supported by expert tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bień, J.; KuŻawa, M.

    2016-06-01

    This paper is focused on the progress in the application of Expert Tools supporting integration of inspection and NDT testing findings in order to effectuate effective decision making by bridge owners. Possibilities of knowledge representation in the intelligent computer Expert Tools by means of the multi-level hybrid network technology are described. These multi-level hybrid networks can be built of neural, fuzzy and functional components depending on the problem that needs to be solved and on the type of available information. Application of the technology is illustrated by an example of the Bridge Evaluation Expert Function (BEEF) implemented in the Railway Bridge Management System "SMOK" operated by the Polish State Railways.

  9. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  10. Expert assessment of advanced power sources. Contract report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, C.L.

    2007-07-01

    Although DRDC published an exhaustive technical report (in August 2001) on technology trends in advanced power sources projected out to the year 2020, the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 (and the consequent, augmented and more broadly-based defence and national security posture adopted by the CF/DND), together with rapid developments in power source technologies over the past five years, internationally, prompted DRDC to update the 2001 report, on a selected number of power source technologies or applications and to provide further guidance to DRDC's Advanced Power Source R and D program. Eight wide-ranging, power source technologies or applications were investigated, using the technique of 'expert elicitation' (that is, using independent experts in the various and diverse technological fields), based on a standardized questionnaire, augmented by the contractor's own expertise (and his overall analysis of the experts' responses) in these diverse areas. In addition, each expert was asked about his/her view on the likely role of nanotechnology in each technological area or application. Following collection and analysis of all the data, the contractor made recommendations on the ability of each power source to meet the future requirements of the CF/DND, taking into account the Technology Readiness Level, for each technology or application

  11. Nuclear-station post-accident liquid-sampling system: developed by Duke Power Company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, D.A.; Birch, M.L.; Orth, W.C.

    1981-01-01

    The accident at Three Mile Island showed that means must be provided to determine the radioactivity levels in high activity liquid and gaseous systems of a nuclear power plant without undue radiation exposure to personnel. The Duke Power Post Accident Liquid Sampling System provides the means for obtaining diluted liquid samples and diluted dissolved gas samples following a reactor accident involving substantial core damage. Their approach yields a straightforward engineering solution at a fraction of the cost of other systems. A description of the system, general design criteria, and color coded flow diagrams are included

  12. Post-accident cooling capacity analysis of the AP1000 passive spent fuel pool cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Xia

    2013-01-01

    The passive design is used in AP1000 spent fuel pool cooling system. The decay heat of the spent fuel is removed by heating-boiling method, and makeup water is provided passively and continuously to ensure the safety of the spent fuel. Based on the analysis of the post-accident cooling capacity of the spent fuel cooling system, it is found that post-accident first 72-hour cooling under normal refueling condition and emergency full-core offload condition can be maintained by passive makeup from safety water source; 56 hours have to be waited under full core refueling condition to ensure the safety of the core and the spent fuel pool. Long-term cooling could be conducted through reserved safety interface. Makeup measure is available after accident and limited operation is needed. Makeup under control could maintain the spent fuel at sub-critical condition. Compared with traditional spent fuel pool cooling system design, the AP1000 design respond more effectively to LOCA accidents. (authors)

  13. Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

    2017-10-01

    The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

  14. Expert System for Quality Assessment in "Tibiscus" University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin Tuican

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The periodical evaluation of the teaching staff in „Tibiscus” University bases on the specifications of The Romanian Agency for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (Agenţia Română de Asigurare a Calităţii în Învăţământul Superior, ARACIS namely : „The quality of the teaching and researching staff The universities must dispose of teaching staff which, as number and functional base, must be correctly allocated to the total number of students, depending on the study domain, and regarding the qualifications it must depend on the specific of the study program and the proposed quality objectives.” This paper presents the implementation of an expert system, offering to the students the possibility to perform the evaluation in a modern way and to the evaluation committee a quick access to all necessary data.

  15. Parkinson's disease Assessment using Fuzzy Expert System and Nonlinear Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEMAN, O.

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new screening system for quantitative evaluation and analysis, designed for the early stage detection of Parkinson disease. This has been carried out in the view of improving the diagnosis currently established upon a basis of subjective scores. Parkinson?s disease (PD appears as a result of dopamine loss, a chemical mediator that is responsible for the body?s ability to control movements. The symptoms reflect the loss of nerve cells, due to an unknown. The input parameters of the system are represented by amplitude, frequency, the spectral characteristic and trembling localization. The main symptoms include trembling of hand, arms, movement difficulties, postural instability, disturbance of coordination and equilibrium, sleep disturbance, difficulties in speaking, reducing of voice volume. The medical knowledge in PD field is characterized by imprecision, uncertainty and vagueness. The proposed system (fuzzy expert systems is non-invasive and, easy to use by both physicians and patients at home.

  16. Populations protection and territories management in nuclear emergency and post-accident situation; Protection des populations et gestion des territoires en situation d'urgence nucleaire et post-accidentelle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourrel, M.; Calmon, Ph.; Calvez, M.; Chambrette, V.; Champion, D.; Devin, P.; Godino, O.; Lombard, J.; Rzepka, J.P.; Schneider, Th.; Verhaeghe, B.; Cogez, E.; Kayser, O.; Guenon, C.; Jourdain, J.R.; Bouchot, E.; Murith, Ch.; Lochard, J.; Cluchier, A.; Vandecasteele, Ch.; Pectorin, X.; Dubiau, Ph.; Gerphagnon, O.; Roche, H.; Cessac, B.; Cochard, A.; Machenaud, G.; Jourdain, J.R.; Pirard, Ph.; Leger, M.; Bouchot, E.; Demet, M.; Charre, J.P.; Poumadere, M.; Cogez, E.

    2010-07-01

    . Champion); 17 - aid guidebooks for the management of post-accident consequences: agricultural activities and exit of the emergency stage (B. Cessac); 18 - presentation of the operational means of the GIE Groupe Intra (A. Cochard); 19 - synthetical presentation of the studies of post-accident management conditions in the milk industry (G. Machenaud); 20 - reconstruction of doses received by exposed populations (J.R. Jourdain); 21 - organisation of the health monitoring of populations after a radiological accident - presentation taken from the recommendations of the Codirpa's working group 'health stakes' (P. Pirard); 22 - losses indemnification in case of nuclear accident (M. Leger); 23 - post nuclear accident communication - reflections of the Codirpa's working group 'communication' (E. Bouchot); 24 - the ANCCLI's permanent group 'territories - post-accident' (M. Demet); 25 - experience feedback from the local information commission (CLI) 'Marcoule-Gard' in the management of a post-accident situation (J.P. Charre); 26 - commitment of intervening parties in the preparation to accident and post-accident situations: European experiences (T. Schneider); 27 - socio-cognitive exposure and risk assessment - the radio waves case (M. Poumadere). (J.S.)

  17. Importance assessment of decision attributes: A qualitative study comparing experts and laypersons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerkens, Johannes M.G.; Norde, Christiaan; van der Heijden, Beatrice

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate differences between experts and laypersons concerning the way they assess the importance of each of the various decision attributes (cost, risk, feasibility) taken into consideration during decision processes in an organizational setting.

  18. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  19. Relocation tabletop exercise: federal radiological response in the post-accident phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grant, K.; Adler, M.V.; Wolff, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    The federal Radiological Emergency Response Plan (FRERP) was developed to provide the framework for coordinating federal radiological assistance to states and to local authorities faced with a large radiological accident. The Relocation Tabletop Exercise was conducted on December 9-11, 1985 at the Beaver Valley Power Station, the site of the simulated accident. The exercise scenario had postulated a substantial release of radioactive materials from a fuel handling accident at the Beaver Valley Power Station in Shippingport, Pennsylvania, leaving radioactive materisls deposited over part of the surrounding area. The exercise was structured as a sequential series of nice mini-scenarios, each of which focused on one problems. The exercise was intended to identify issues and problems which needed consideration or procedures which might need to be developed for this post-accident phase. It was a ''no-fault'' excercise

  20. Post-accident recirculation filters for fission product removal from the containment atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dillmann, H.G.; Pasler, H.

    1975-01-01

    The prototype post-accident recirculation filters have been subjected to further tests made under various conditions. The filter system exposed to hot air of 160 0 C and to saturated steam up to 1 atm and temperatures between 108 0 C and 160 0 C yielded for residence times of 0.2 sec after 18 days of permanent operation removal efficiencies > 99.98% for CH 3 J with a flow of 1,200 m 3 /h. Induced by previous experimental results the adsorber material was examined for transportation of the impregnation by the air-steam mixture. No measurable transportation was found (detection limit 0.6 x 10 -6 g Ag when 32 g of sorption material were used) under different conditions up to temperatures of 200 0 C in superheated steam over a duration of the experiment of 48 h. (orig.) [de

  1. NPP post-accident monitoring system based on unmanned aircraft vehicle:concept, design principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sachenko, A.A.; Kochan, V.V.; Kharchenko, V.S.; Yanovskij, M.Eh.; Yastrebenetskij, M.A.; Fesenko, G.V.

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents a concept of designing the post-accident system for monitoring the equipment and territory of nuclear power plant after a severe accident based on unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAVs). Wired power and communications networks are found out as the most vulnerable ones during the accident monitoring, and informativity, reliability and veracity are recognized as system basic parameters. It is proposed to equip measurement and control modules with backup wireless communication channels and deploy the repeaters network based on UAVs to ensure the informativity. Modules possess the backup power battery, and repeaters appear in the appropriate places after the accident to provide the survivability. Moreover, an optimization of UAVs' location is proposed according to the minimum energy consumption criterion. To ensure the veracity, it is expected to design the noise-immune protocol for message exchange and archiving and self-diagnostics of all system components

  2. LMFBR post accident heat removal testing needs and conceptual design of a test facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleefeldt, K.; Kuechle, M.; Royl, P.; Werle, H.; Boenisch, G.; Heinzel, V.; Mueller, R.A.; Schramm, K.; Smidt, D.

    1977-03-01

    A study has been carried out in which the needs and requirements for a test facility were derived, enabling detailed investigation of key phenomena anticipated during the post accident heat removal (PAHR) phase as a consequence of a postulated LMFBR whole core accident. Part I of the study concentrates on demonstrating the PAHR phenomena and related testing needs. Three types of experiments were identified which require in-pile testing, ranging from 10 to 70 cm test bed diameter and correspondingly, 30 to 5 W/g minimum power density in the test fuel. In part II a conceptual design for a test facility is presented, emphasizing the capability for accomodating large test beds. This is achieved by a below-reactor-vessel testing device, neutronically coupled to a 100 MWt sodium cooled fast reactor. (orig.) [de

  3. Post-accident TMI-2 (Three Mile Island-Unit 2) decontamination and defueling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofstetter, K.J.; Baston, V.F.

    1986-01-01

    Following the accident at Three Mile Island-Unit 2 (TMI-2), a substantial quantity of fission products was distributed throughout various plant systems and areas. The control of further migration of these radionuclides was accomplished by various physical and chemical means. The decontamination and defueling activities have proceeded within specific regulatory, administrative, and hardware restrictions. A summary of the post-accident status of the plant systems, the decontamination methods used, and the end-point criteria will be discussed. The hardware installed or utilized to perform the cleanup operations will be described. The methods and progress of defueling will also be presented. The development of detailed water chemistry requirements and their effects on systems and decontamination efforts are discussed. The planning, scheduling, and performance of specific recovery tasks are presented along with a general overview of water and chemical management at TMI-2

  4. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been modified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) 3 of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. 5 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  5. Bridge between public perception and expert assessment of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-09-01

    Preparation of the brief consisted of a comprehensive review of literature, selective interviews of available representative parties, and categorization of the spectrum of opinions. Analysis of the information thus obtained included identification of reconcilable and irreconcilable differences among the opinions and indication of possible ways to bridge some of the differences. Opinions were generally found to be best categorized as the pro, neutral, and contra opinions associated with experts and the public. The primary issues separating the opposing groups appear to be the following: 1) the required input for probabilistic risk analysis of accidents; 2) the evaluation of what constitutes an acceptable risk; 3) the evaluation of potential long-term consequences; 4) the general need for nuclear energy; and 5) the long-term risk to public health. Among the above issues, potential for reconciliation was found only for the first two, while the latter issues, because of the relatively short history of the industry and paucity of knowledge on relevant factors, were found difficult to reconcile without expansion of our present knowledge and data base. Reconciliation, generally, was proposed through augmentation of communication among the opposing groups through the availability of appropriate fora and development of a general spirit of good intention for a common cause: mankind's ultimate well-being

  6. Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

  7. 77 FR 60481 - Design, Inspection, and Testing Criteria for Air Filtration and Adsorption Units of Post-Accident...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-03

    ... filtration and iodine adsorption units of ESF atmosphere cleanup systems in light-water-cooled nuclear power... Filtration and Adsorption Units of Post-Accident Engineered-Safety-Feature Atmosphere Cleanup Systems in Light-Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Regulatory guide...

  8. Expert Systems Based Clinical Assessment and Tutorial Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Frank; Shores, Jay

    This project at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine (Fort Worth) evaluated the use of an artificial-intelligence-derived measure, "Knowledge-Based Inference Tool" (KBIT), as the basis for assessing medical students' diagnostic capabilities and designing instruction to improve diagnostic skills. The instrument was designed to…

  9. Strategic Choice Analysis by Expert Panels for Migration Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kourtit, K.; Nijkamp, P.

    2011-01-01

    International migration is a source of policy and research interest in many countries. This paper provides a review of experiences and findings from migration impact assessment worldwide. Various findings are briefly summarised in the context of a systematic migration SWOT analysis for five distinct

  10. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Littleboy, Anna; Hodgkinson, David

    2001-01-01

    Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development

  12. Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Littleboy, Anna [United Kingdom Nirex Ltd., Harwell (United Kingdom); Hodgkinson, David [Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development.

  13. In the public interest: assessing expert and stakeholder influence in public deliberation about biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, Samantha; Burgess, Michael M

    2010-07-01

    Providing technical and experiential information without overwhelming participants' perspectives presents a major challenge to public involvement in policy decisions. This article reports the design and analysis of a case study on incorporating expert and stakeholder knowledge without including them as deliberators, while supporting deliberative participants' ability to introduce and critically assess different perspectives. Analysis of audio-recorded deliberations illustrates how expert and stakeholder knowledge was cited, criticized and incorporated into deliberations. In conclusion, separating experts and stakeholders from deliberations may be an important prima facie principle when the goal is to enhance citizen representation on technical issues and related policy.

  14. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts

    OpenAIRE

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2016-01-01

    Background Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. Methods This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images...

  15. Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

  16. Plutonium fuel an assessment. Report by an expert group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    Since the 1950s, plutonium used in fast reactors has been seen as the key to unlocking the vast energy resources contained in the world's uranium reserves. However, the slowing down in projected installation rates of nuclear reactors, combined with discovery of additional uranium, have led to a postponement of the point in time when fast reactors will make large demands on plutonium supplies. There are several options concerning its use or storage in the meantime. This report sets out the facts and current views about plutonium and its civil use, both at present and in the medium term. It explains the factors influencing the choice of fuel options and illustrates how economic and logistic assessments of the alternatives can be undertaken

  17. Main post-accident management stakes: IRSN's point of view

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre Oudiz [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (France)

    2006-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: Off site management of a radiological crisis covers two phases which need to be clearly distinguished even if there are links between them: emergency phase and recovery phase (also called late or post-accident phase). The presentation will deal with the latter, rather neglected up until recently, but conveying special attention from now on in France and at the international level. It is clear now that the long term management of a radiological or nuclear crisis cannot be reduced to merely site decontamination. Actually, environmental decontamination considerations would be only one amongst other essential economical, social, health, psychological, cultural, and symbolical concerns. This is why off site management of a radiological crisis requires innovative governance, in order to challenge such a complexity. This need for challenge led IRSN to have on the go technical developments and new governance modes reflection. 1) Technical developments: they deal with implementing an organisation, a set of methods, a platform of technical tools which would allow the stakeholders to carry out efficiently their mission during the recovery phase. For example, countermeasures for agricultural and urban rehabilitation are developed within the framework of the 6. PCRDT EURANOS programme. Teams from several countries are involved in common elaboration of rehabilitation strategies based on the best available knowledge. Besides this, simple operational decision aiding tools for the stakeholders (local administration, elected representatives, professional agricultural groups, etc.) are currently developed by IRSN within the framework of the nuclear post-accident exercises. IRSN is also involved in doctrinal reflections about the respective roles of radioactive measurements in the environment and radiological consequences calculation during emergency and recovery phases. Criteria for emergency countermeasures withdrawal are also currently under

  18. Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

    Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

    1995-02-01

    Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  20. EXPERT MODEL OF LAND SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Đurđević

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17404 soil samples (2003rd-2009th year were analysed in the eastern Croatia. The largest number of soil samples belongs to the Osijek-Baranya county, which together with both Eastern sugar beet Factories (Osijek and Županja, conduct the soil fertility control (~4200 samples/yr.. Computer model suitability assessment for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient enough reliable in terms of the number of analyzed soil samples. It allows the visualization of the agricultural area and prediction of its production properties for the purposes of analysis, planning and rationalization of agricultural production. With more precise data about the soil (soil, climate and reliable Digital Soil Map of Croatia, the model could be an acceptable, not only to evaluate the suitability for growing different crops but also their need for fertilizer, necessary machinery, repairs (liming, and other measures of organic matter input. The abovementioned aims to eliminate or reduce effects of limiting factors in primary agricultural production. Assessment of the relative benefits of soil presented by computer model for the crops production and geostatistical method kriging in the Osijek-Baranya county showed: 1 Average soil suitability being 60.06 percent. 2 Kriging predicted that 51751 ha (17.16% are of limited resources (N1 for growing crops whereas a 86142 ha (28.57% of land is limited suitably (S3, b 132789 ha (44.04% are moderately suitable (S2 and c 30772 ha (10.28% are of excellent fertility (S1. A large number of eastern Croatian land data showed that the computer-geostatistical model for determination of soil benefits for growing crops was automated, fast and simple to use and suitable for the implementation of GIS and automatically downloading the necessary benefit indicators from the input base (land, analytical and climate as well as data from the digital soil maps able to: a visualize the suitability for soil tillage, b predict the

  1. Post-accident cleanup and decommissioning of a reference pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, E.S.; Holter, G.M.

    1982-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual study to evaluate the technical requirements, costs, and safety impacts of the cleanup and decommissioning of a large pressurized water reactor (PWR) involved in an accident. The costs and occupational doses for post-accident cleanup and decommissioning are estimated to be substantially higher than those for decommissioning following the orderly shutdown of a reactor. A major factor in these cost and occupational dose increases is the high radiation environment that exists in the containment building following an accident which restricts worker access and increases the difficulty of performing certain tasks. Other factors which influence accident cleanup and decommissioning costs are requirements for the design and construction of special tools and equipment, increased requirements for regulatory approvals, and special waste management needs. Radiation doses to the public from routine accident cleanup and decommissioning operations are estimated to be below permissible radiation dose levels in unrestricted areas and within the range of annual doses from normal background. 6 references, 1 figure, 7 tables

  2. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-06

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks' statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies.

  3. SIPA, a PWR simulator for post-accident training and studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltier, J.; Poizat, F.

    1990-01-01

    SIPA (Simulator for Post-Accident conditions) which is now under development will be operated by EDF and CEA. Each organization will have its own version, SIPA 1 for EDF and SIPA 2 for CEA. The three main purposes will meet the needs of EDF and CEA as described below: - training of the EDF's ISR (Ingenieurs de Surete et Radioprotection = Shift Safety Advisors) which needs physical relevance, real time during accidental transients and visualisation of two-phase flow phenomena to well understand what could physically happen, - studies for EDF's designs which require calculation of a lot of points or scenarios. Quality Assurance of the models and data package, interactivity for procedure finalisation, availability of resources to all engineers, and possibility of creation of new models, - safety analysis requirements for CEA/IPSN (technical support of the French safety authority, the Central Service for the Safety of Nuclear Installations) which includes the actual safety analysis (analysis of procedures, design basis accidents, probabilistic safety analysis, real incidents studies, reactor tests...), the preparation and the execution of safety drills and training of engineer analysts

  4. The post-accident protective measures in the region of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasechnikov, A.

    1993-01-01

    The strategy of protective measures and the system of intervention levels are considered. It makes it possible to limit the region where post-accident measures must be taken. The concept of 'safe living' for life and surface contamination concept are discussed. The measurement results of a surface contamination are pointed out in the maps for series settlements of the 30 km zone. The features of severe accidents to nuclear power plants are that damage is caused not only by destruction and downtime of power installations, but also by radioactive contamination of the environment. Therefore, the term 'severe accident' is accepted to mean an accident with an off-site impact, which requires to perform large-scale and expensive work on elimination of the consequences of the accident. The whole off-site damage due to the Chernobyl accident is caused exclusively by contamination, as no destruction was observed beyond the site. As a result of the Chernobyl accident the greatest short-term releases of radioactive materials to the atmosphere occurred from a single source. Four elements from all the materials released from the core have determined the short-term and long-term radiological situation in the affected areas. These are iodine, cesium, strontium and plutonium. Moreover, in the releases there were highly - radioactive fragments of fuel (hot particles). 7 figs

  5. Post-accident cleanup and decommissioning of a reference pressurized-water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, E.S.; Holter, G.M.

    1982-10-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual study to evaluate the technical requirements, costs, and safety impacts of the cleanup and decommissioning of a large pressurized water reactor (PWR) involved in an accident. The costs and occupational doses for post-accident cleanup and dcommissioning are estimated to be substantially higher than those for decommissioning following the orderly shutdown of a reactor. A major factor in these cost and occupational dose increases is the high radiation environment that exists in the containment building following an accident which restricts worker access and increases the difficulty of performing certain tasks. Other factors which influence accident cleanup and decommissioning costs are requirements for the design and construction of special tools and equipment, increased requirements for regulatory approvals, and special waste management needs. Radiation doses to the public from routine accident cleanup and decommissioning operations are estimated to be below permissible radiation dose levels in unrestricted areas and within the range of annual doses from normal background

  6. On the Simulation-Based Reliability of Complex Emergency Logistics Networks in Post-Accident Rescues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Huang, Li; Liang, Xuedong

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigates the reliability of complex emergency logistics networks, as reliability is crucial to reducing environmental and public health losses in post-accident emergency rescues. Such networks’ statistical characteristics are analyzed first. After the connected reliability and evaluation indices for complex emergency logistics networks are effectively defined, simulation analyses of network reliability are conducted under two different attack modes using a particular emergency logistics network as an example. The simulation analyses obtain the varying trends in emergency supply times and the ratio of effective nodes and validates the effects of network characteristics and different types of attacks on network reliability. The results demonstrate that this emergency logistics network is both a small-world and a scale-free network. When facing random attacks, the emergency logistics network steadily changes, whereas it is very fragile when facing selective attacks. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the protection of supply nodes and nodes with high connectivity. The simulation method provides a new tool for studying emergency logistics networks and a reference for similar studies. PMID:29316614

  7. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  8. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Business Administration & Economics Div.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  9. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  10. Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thang, B.; Sluis - Thiescheffer, R.J.W.; Bekker, M.M.; Eggen, J.H.; Vermeeren, A.P.O.S.; Ridder, de H.

    2008-01-01

    LOBBI Netherlands Consortium Subscribe (Full Service) Register (Limited Service, Free) Login Search: The ACM Digital Library The Guide Feedback Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment Full text Pdf (3.04 MB) Source Interaction Design and Children archive

  11. The objective assessment of experts' and novices' suturing skills using an image analysis program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frischknecht, Adam C; Kasten, Steven J; Hamstra, Stanley J; Perkins, Noel C; Gillespie, R Brent; Armstrong, Thomas J; Minter, Rebecca M

    2013-02-01

    To objectively assess suturing performance using an image analysis program and to provide validity evidence for this assessment method by comparing experts' and novices' performance. In 2009, the authors used an image analysis program to extract objective variables from digital images of suturing end products obtained during a previous study involving third-year medical students (novices) and surgical faculty and residents (experts). Variables included number of stitches, stitch length, total bite size, travel, stitch orientation, total bite-size-to-travel ratio, and symmetry across the incision ratio. The authors compared all variables between groups to detect significant differences and two variables (total bite-size-to-travel ratio and symmetry across the incision ratio) to ideal values. Five experts and 15 novices participated. Experts' and novices' performances differed significantly (P 0.8) for total bite size (P = .009, d = 1.5), travel (P = .045, d = 1.1), total bite-size-to-travel ratio (P algorithm can extract variables from digital images of a running suture and rapidly provide quantitative summative assessment feedback. The significant differences found between groups confirm that this system can discriminate between skill levels. This image analysis program represents a viable training tool for objectively assessing trainees' suturing, a foundational skill for many medical specialties.

  12. Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Kramer, A.; Bottema, B.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. Methods: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

  13. Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Bottema, B.; Kramer, A.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. METHODS: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

  14. Fukushima Daiichi. Post accident countermeasures and mid-and-long-term action plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Kazuhiko

    2012-01-01

    Since accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station, TEPCO had made strenuous efforts to maintain stable cooling of reactors and suppress discharge of radioactive materials under the cooperation of the government and others concerned. Various activities towards settlement of the accident had been done according to the roadmap proposed on April 17, 2011. This article described outlines of post accident countermeasures and current activities toward decommissioning based on mid-and-long-term action plan. Step 2 completion in roadmap towards settlement of the accident was confirmed on Dec. 16, 2011; (1) reactors: attainment of a condition equivalent to 'cold shutdown' with temperature of RPV bottom below 100degC, release of radioactive materials from PCV under control and public radiation exposure by additional release being significantly held down (evaluated as maximum 0.2 mSv/y at the site boundary), and mid-term safety of circulating water injection cooling system, (2) spent fuel pools: more stable cooling with circulating cooling system by installation of heat exchanger, (3) radioactive contaminated water: reduction of total amount with full-fledged processing facilities, desalination processing (reuse), storage and mitigation of contamination in the ocean, (4) commence construction of water shielding wall to prevent contamination of the ocean via the underground water, (5) installation of reactor building cover of unit 1 to restrain release of radioactive materials, and others. According to mid-to-long-term roadmap towards the decommissioning of Fukushima Nuclear Power Units 1-4, current activities were to (1) maintain stable reactor cooling and accumulated water processing and improve their credibility, (2) reduce the radiation impact due to additional emissions from the whole site and radioactive waste generated after the accident, (3) commence removal of fuel from the spent fuel pools (unit 4 within 2 years), (4) commence R and D and decontamination the

  15. Sustainability assessment of energy technologies via social indicators: Results of a survey among European energy experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego Carrera, Diana; Mack, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Sustainability assessment of energy technologies oftentimes fails to account for social repercussions and long-term negative effects and benefits of energy systems. As part of the NEEDS project, an expert-based set of social indicators was developed and verified by the European stakeholders with the objective of contributing in the development of social indicators for the assessment of societal effects of energy systems. For this purpose, scientific experts from four sample countries France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland were interviewed to assess 16 different energy systems on a specific stakeholder reviewed indicator set. The indicator set covers the four main criteria: 'security and reliability of energy provision; 'political stability and legitimacy'; 'social and individual risks' and 'quality of life'. This article will review the process of indicator development and assessment and highlight results for today's most prominent and future energy technologies and some likely to make an impact in the future. Expert judgments varied considerably between countries and energy systems, with the exception of renewable technologies, which were overall positively assessed on almost all evaluation criteria.

  16. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

  17. Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainties in conventional quantitative risk assessment typically relate to values of parameters in risk models. For many environmental contaminants, there is a lack of sufficient information about multiple components of the risk assessment framework. In such cases, the use of default assumptions and extrapolations to fill in the data gaps is a common practice. Nanoparticle risks, however, pose a new form of risk assessment challenge. Besides a lack of data, there is deep scientific uncertainty regarding every aspect of the risk assessment framework: (a) particle characteristics that may affect toxicity; (b) their fate and transport through the environment; (c) the routes of exposure and the metrics by which exposure ought to be measured; (d) the mechanisms of translocation to different parts of the body; and (e) the mechanisms of toxicity and disease. In each of these areas, there are multiple and competing models and hypotheses. These are not merely parametric uncertainties but uncertainties about the choice of the causal mechanisms themselves and the proper model variables to be used, i.e., structural uncertainties. While these uncertainties exist for PM2.5 as well, risk assessment for PM2.5 has avoided dealing with these issues because of a plethora of epidemiological studies. However, such studies don't exist for the case of nanoparticles. Even if such studies are done in the future, they will be very specific to a particular type of engineered nanoparticle and not generalizable to other nanoparticles. Therefore, risk assessment for nanoparticles will have to deal with the various uncertainties that were avoided in the case of PM2.5. Consequently, uncertainties in estimating risks due to nanoparticle exposures may be characterized as 'extreme'. This paper proposes a methodology by which risk analysts can cope with such extreme uncertainty. One way to make these problems analytically tractable is to use expert judgment approaches to study the degree of

  18. Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Anne; Thevoz, Anne-Laure; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie

    2015-02-01

    Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further

  19. Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

    2017-12-15

    The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

    2011-08-24

    Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  1. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Emmy

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  2. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

  3. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

  4. Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polido, Alexandra; João, Elsa; Ramos, Tomás B.

    2016-01-01

    Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

  5. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

  6. Application of expert-notice dialogue (END) method to assess students’ science communication ability on biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriyati, S.; Amelia, D. N.; Soniyana, G. T.

    2018-05-01

    Student’s science communication ability can be assessed by the Expert-Notice Dialogue (END) method which focusing on verbal explanations using graphs or images as a tool. This study aims to apply the END method to assess students’ science communication ability. The study was conducted in two high schools with each sample of one class at each school (A and B). The number of experts in class A is 8 students and 7 in class B, the number of notice in class A 24 students and 30 in class B. The material chosen for explanation by expert is Ecosystem in class A and plant classification in class B. Research instruments are rubric of science communication ability, observation rubric, notice concept test and notice questionnaire. The implementation recorded with a video camera and then transcribed based on rubric science communication ability. The results showed that the average of science communication ability in class A and B was 60% and 61.8%, respectively, in enough categories. Mastery of the notice concept is in good category with 79.10 averages in class A and 94.64 in class B. Through the questionnaire notice it is known that the END method generally helps notice in understanding the concept.

  7. The Use of Telemedicine Access to Schools to Facilitate Expert Assessment of Children with Asthma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Bergman

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that access to an asthma specialist improves asthma outcomes. We hypothesized that we could improve access to expert asthma care through a telemedicine link between an asthma specialist and a school-based asthma program. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 3 urban schools to ascertain the feasibility of using an asthma-focused telemedicine solution. Each subject was seen by an asthma expert at 0, 8, and 32 weeks. The assessment and recommendations for care were sent to the primary care physician (PCP and parents were told to contact their physician for follow-up care. Eighty three subjects participated in the study. Subjects experienced improvement (P<.05 in family social activities and the number of asthma attacks. Ninety four percent of subjects rated the program as good or excellent. This study demonstrates the feasibility and acceptance of a school-based asthma program using a telemedicine link to an asthma specialist.

  8. Use of expert systems in the structural safety assessment of of pressurized nuclear components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, A.; Sturm, D.

    1990-01-01

    The paper describes research currently performed at MPA Stuttgart on development of expert systems and application of artificial intelligence methods and techniques, for structural safety assessment of power plant pressurized components. The research is done as an extension of preceding and existing large research programs of MPA, in the domain of structural safety of components. In this preceding research a waste amount of practical engineering knowledge and experience has been accumulated: development in the direction of AI-based systems is a way to use this knowledge more efficiently in future research and in the nuclear power plant practice. Applications on which the current research is focussed are expert systems applied for the leak-before-break analysis for the structural safety evaluation in high temperature regimes

  9. Expert validation of fit-for-purpose guidelines for designing programmes of assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dijkstra Joost

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An assessment programme, a purposeful mix of assessment activities, is necessary to achieve a complete picture of assessee competence. High quality assessment programmes exist, however, design requirements for such programmes are still unclear. We developed guidelines for design based on an earlier developed framework which identified areas to be covered. A fitness-for-purpose approach defining quality was adopted to develop and validate guidelines. Methods First, in a brainstorm, ideas were generated, followed by structured interviews with 9 international assessment experts. Then, guidelines were fine-tuned through analysis of the interviews. Finally, validation was based on expert consensus via member checking. Results In total 72 guidelines were developed and in this paper the most salient guidelines are discussed. The guidelines are related and grouped per layer of the framework. Some guidelines were so generic that these are applicable in any design consideration. These are: the principle of proportionality, rationales should underpin each decisions, and requirement of expertise. Logically, many guidelines focus on practical aspects of assessment. Some guidelines were found to be clear and concrete, others were less straightforward and were phrased more as issues for contemplation. Conclusions The set of guidelines is comprehensive and not bound to a specific context or educational approach. From the fitness-for-purpose principle, guidelines are eclectic, requiring expertise judgement to use them appropriately in different contexts. Further validation studies to test practicality are required.

  10. Expert assessments and content analysis of crew communication during ISS missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusupova, Anna

    During the last seven years, we have analyzed the communication patterns between ISS crewmembers and mission control personnel and identified a number of different communication styles between these two groups (Gushin et al, 2005). In this paper, we will report on an external validity check we conducted that compares our findings with those of another study using the same research material. For many years the group of psychologists at the Medical Center of Space Flight Control (TCUMOKO) at the Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) in Moscow has been analyzing audio communication sessions of Russian space crews with the ground-based Mission Control during long-duration spaceflight conditions. We compared week by week texts of the standard weekly monitoring reports made by the TsUP psychological group and audiocommunication of space crews with mission control centers. Expert assessments of the crewmembers' psychological state are made by IBMP psychoneurologists on the basis of daily schedule fulfillment, video and audio materials, and psychophysiological data from board. The second approach was based on the crew-ground communication analysis. For both population of messages we applied two corresponding schemas of content analysis. All statements made in communication sessions and weekly reports were divided into three groups in terms of their communication function (Lomov, 1981): 1) informative function (e.g., demands for information, requests, professional slang); 2) socio-regulatory function (e.g., rational consent or discord, operational complaint, refusal to cooperate); and 3) affective (emotional) function (e.g., encouragement, sympathy, emotional consent or discord). Number of statements of the audiocommunication sessions correlated with corresponding functions (informative, regulatory, affective) of communication in weekly monitioring reports made by experts. Crewmembers verbal behavior expresses its psycho-emotional state which is formulated by expert

  11. French regulatory requirements for the occupational radiation protection in severe accident situations and post-accident recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couasnon, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Workers of the concerned company and other persons and teams called 'intervention personnel' (specialized firemen, first aider, etc.) are to be involved in radiological emergency situations. Radiation protection provisions for workers and for intervention personnel complement one another because they cover persons with different statutes (workers under the responsibility of an employer and persons acting within the framework of agreements with the public authorities or within the framework of the requisitions). Work or operations exposing workers to ionizing radiation in radiological emergency situations can be assigned only to workers satisfying all of the following conditions: classification in category A worker; free of any medical unfitness; on a list drawn up in advance for this purpose; having received appropriate information on the risks and the precautions to take during the work or the operation; not having received, during the preceding twelve months, a dose greater than one of the annual limit values for exposures subject to special authorization. In addition, the worker must be a volunteer to carry out the work or the operations concerned in radiological emergency situations and have individual dosimetry means appropriate for the situation. Intervention personnel are possibly composed of personnel from responding organizations, such as police officers, fire-fighters, medical personnel, drivers and crews of evacuation vehicles, or of workers employed by the head of the damaged plant. In order to determine their selection, training and medical and radiological monitoring conditions, intervention personnel are classified into two groups: personnel forming the special technical, medical and health intervention teams readied in advance to deal with radiological emergency situations and persons not belonging to special teams but intervening as part of the tasks within the scope of their competence. In case of an existing exposure situation (post-accident

  12. Development of a national doctrine for the management of the post-accident phase of a radiological emergency situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niel, J.Ch.; Godet, J.L.

    2008-01-01

    For several years, public Authorities have defined an organization for the management of emergency situations arising from an accident occurring at a nuclear installation. So far, the management of the risk arising from the post accident phase was, in itself, not explored with the same care. What so ever, no format policy on which the action of public Authority could be based is today available. The nuclear safety Authority (ASN), in relation with the other concerned departments, is now in charge, according to the above mentioned directive, to prepare and implement the necessary provisions to respond to a post accident situation. In dune 2005, ASN established the steering committee for the management of post nuclear or radiological emergency situations (CODIRPA). The definition of a national policy related to the management of the radiological risk during a post event situation having to integrate various organization aspects as: lifting of protection emergency provisions and rehabilitation of buildings, life in contaminated rural territories, agriculture and water, dose and radiological consequences, sanitary surveillance of victims and populations, indemnification, waste management of contaminated crops and soils, organization of public Authorities. During the 2. phase of CODIRPA work (2008-2009), the first elements of policy will be consolidated and new scenarios will be studied (one worsened scenario and one scenario with alpha emitting radionuclide). in parallel, a procedure for local actor's consultation should be elaborated. (authors)

  13. A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

  14. On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

    2017-09-04

    To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

  15. Geriatric Assessment-Guided Care Processes for Older Adults: A Delphi Consensus of Geriatric Oncology Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohile, Supriya Gupta; Velarde, Carla; Hurria, Arti; Magnuson, Allison; Lowenstein, Lisa; Pandya, Chintan; O'Donovan, Anita; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Dale, William

    2015-09-01

    Structured care processes that provide a framework for how oncologists can incorporate geriatric assessment (GA) into clinical practice could improve outcomes for vulnerable older adults with cancer, a growing population at high risk of toxicity from cancer treatment. We sought to obtain consensus from an expert panel on the use of GA in clinical practice and to develop algorithms of GA-guided care processes. The Delphi technique, a well-recognized structured and reiterative process to reach consensus, was used. Participants were geriatric oncology experts who attended NIH-funded U13 or Cancer and Aging Research Group conferences. Consensus was defined as an interquartile range of 2 or more units, or 66.7% or greater, selecting a utility/helpfulness rating of 7 or greater on a 10-point Likert scale. For nominal data, consensus was defined as agreement among 66.7% or more of the group. From 33 invited, 30 participants completed all 3 rounds. Most experts (75%) used GA in clinical care, and the remainder were involved in geriatric oncology research. The panel met consensus that "all patients aged 75 years or older and those who are younger with age-related health concerns" should undergo GA and that all domains (function, physical performance, comorbidity/polypharmacy, cognition, nutrition, psychological status, and social support) should be included. Consensus was met for how GA could guide nononcologic interventions and cancer treatment decisions. Algorithms for GA-guided care processes were developed. This Delphi investigation of geriatric oncology experts demonstrated that GA should be performed for older patients with cancer to guide care processes. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

  16. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue.

  17. Quantitative assessment of multiple sclerosis lesion load using CAD and expert input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gertych, Arkadiusz; Wong, Alexis; Sangnil, Alan; Liu, Brent J.

    2008-03-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a frequently encountered neurological disease with a progressive but variable course affecting the central nervous system. Outline-based lesion quantification in the assessment of lesion load (LL) performed on magnetic resonance (MR) images is clinically useful and provides information about the development and change reflecting overall disease burden. Methods of LL assessment that rely on human input are tedious, have higher intra- and inter-observer variability and are more time-consuming than computerized automatic (CAD) techniques. At present it seems that methods based on human lesion identification preceded by non-interactive outlining by CAD are the best LL quantification strategies. We have developed a CAD that automatically quantifies MS lesions, displays 3-D lesion map and appends radiological findings to original images according to current DICOM standard. CAD is also capable to display and track changes and make comparison between patient's separate MRI studies to determine disease progression. The findings are exported to a separate imaging tool for review and final approval by expert. Capturing and standardized archiving of manual contours is also implemented. Similarity coefficients calculated from quantities of LL in collected exams show a good correlation of CAD-derived results vs. those incorporated as expert's reading. Combining the CAD approach with an expert interaction may impact to the diagnostic work-up of MS patients because of improved reproducibility in LL assessment and reduced time for single MR or comparative exams reading. Inclusion of CAD-generated outlines as DICOM-compliant overlays into the image data can serve as a better reference in MS progression tracking.

  18. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue

  19. Self vs expert assessment of technical and non-technical skills in high fidelity simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Sonal; Miskovic, Danilo; Hull, Louise; Moorthy, Krishna; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Johannsson, Helgi; Gautama, Sanjay; Kneebone, Roger; Sevdalis, Nick

    2011-10-01

    Accurate assessment is imperative for learning, feedback and progression. The aim of this study was to examine whether surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical and nontechnical skills compared with expert faculty members' assessments. Twenty-five surgeons performed a laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) in a simulated operating room. Technical and nontechnical performance was assessed by participants and faculty members using the validated Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) and the Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons scale (NOTSS). Assessment of technical performance correlated between self and faculty members' ratings for experienced (median score, 30.0 vs 31.0; ρ = .831; P = .001) and inexperienced (median score, 22.0 vs 28.0; ρ = .761; P = .003) surgeons. Assessment of nontechnical skills between self and faculty members did not correlate for experienced surgeons (median score, 8.0 vs 10.5; ρ = -.375; P = .229) or their more inexperienced counterparts (median score, 9.0 vs 7.0; ρ = -.018; P = .953). Surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical skills in virtual reality LC. Conversely, formal assessment with faculty members' input is required for nontechnical skills, for which surgeons lack insight into their behaviours. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

  1. Hybrid knowledge expert tool for load capacity assessment of railway plate girders with defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    KuŻawa, M.; Bień, J.; Gładysz, M.

    2013-10-01

    Importance of the bridge structures as components of the transportation network is increasing and requires regular development of the management methodology. The main activities are focused on the safety of the users of the transportation network and on the safety of structures, based on monitoring and analysis of the bridge condition changes caused by various types of defects. The paper presents application of the hybrid network technology in the expert tool NOBLA supporting condition assessment of bridge plate girders, taking into account defects of the structures.

  2. Enhancing an adaptive e-learning system with didactic test assessment using an expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradáč, Vladimír; Kostolányová, Kateřina

    2017-07-01

    The paper deals with a follow-up research on intelligent tutoring systems that were studied in authors' previous papers from the point of view of describing their advantages. In this paper, the authors make use of the fuzzy logic expert system, which assesses student's knowledge, and integrate it into the intelligent tutoring system called Barborka. The goal is to create an even more personal student's study plan, which is tailored both to student's sensory/learning preferences and the level of knowledge of the given subject.

  3. A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

    2016-01-01

    to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema......Mental disorder is a change of mental or behavioral pattern that causes sufferings and impairs the ability to function in ordinary life. In psychopathology, the assessment methods of mental disorder contain various types of uncertainties associated with signs and symptoms. This study identifies...

  4. Expert System Development for Urban Fire Hazard Assessment. Study Case: Kendari City, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taridala, S.; Yudono, A.; Ramli, M. I.; Akil, A.

    2017-08-01

    Kendari City is a coastal urban region with the smallest area as well as the largest population in Southeast Sulawesi. Fires in Kendari City had rather frequently occurred and caused numerous material losses. This study aims to develop a model of urban fire risk and fire station site assessment. The model is developed using Expert Systems with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The high risk of fire area is the area which of high building density with combustible material, not crossed by arterial nor collector road. The fire station site should be appropriately close by high risk of fire area, located on arterial road and near with potential water resource.

  5. Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

  6. Expert Assessment of Conditions for Accredited Quality Management System Functioning in Testing Laboratories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mytych, Joanna; Ligarski, Mariusz J.

    2018-03-01

    The quality management systems compliant with the ISO 9001:2009 have been thoroughly researched and described in detail in the world literature. The accredited management systems used in the testing laboratories and compliant with the ISO/IEC 17025:2005 have been mainly described in terms of the system design and implementation. They have also been investigated from the analytical point of view. Unfortunately, a low number of studies concerned the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories. The aim of following study was to assess the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories in Poland. On 8 October 2015, 1,213 accredited testing laboratories were present in Poland. They investigated various scientific areas and substances/objects. There are more and more such laboratories that have various problems and different long-term experience when it comes to the implementation, maintenance and improvement of the management systems. The article describes the results of the conducted expert assessment (survey) carried out to examine the conditions for the functioning of a management system in an accredited laboratory. It also focuses on the characteristics of the accredited research laboratories in Poland. The authors discuss the selection of the external and internal conditions that may affect the accredited management system. They show how the experts assessing the selected conditions were chosen. The survey results are also presented.

  7. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2017-02-01

    Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  8. Recommendations for ICT use in Alzheimer's disease assessment: Monaco CTAD Expert Meeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, P H; Konig, A; Andrieu, S; Bremond, F; Chemin, I; Chung, P C; Dartigues, J F; Dubois, B; Feutren, G; Guillemaud, R; Kenisberg, P A; Nave, S; Vellas, B; Verhey, F; Yesavage, J; Mallea, P

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) and other related dementia represent a major challenge for health care systems within the aging population. It is therefore important to develop better instruments for assessing disease severity and disease progression to optimize patient's care and support to care providers, and also provide better tools for clinical research. In this area, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are of particular interest. Such techniques enable accurate and standardized assessments of patients' performance and actions in real time and real life situations. The aim of this article is to provide basic recommendation concerning the development and the use of ICT for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders. During he ICT and Mental Health workshop (CTAD meeting held in Monaco on the 30th October 2012) an expert panel was set up to prepare the first recommendations for the use of ICT in dementia research. The expert panel included geriatrician, epidemiologist, neurologist, psychiatrist, psychologist, ICT engineers, representatives from the industry and patient association. The recommendations are divided into three sections corresponding to 1/ the clinical targets of interest for the use of ICT, 2/ the conditions, the type of sensors and the outputs (scores) that could be used and obtained, 3/ finally the last section concerns specifically the use of ICT within clinical trials.

  9. The rise of citizen competence: asset or handicap for the French authorities during post-accident management?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villers, A.

    2008-01-01

    EDA is a non-profit association of volunteer members aware of the limits of the planet's capacities and motivated to prepare a future based on sustainability and solidarity. The ability to plan in advance the measures to be taken in a post-accident situation, adapting them to the territory concerned and making full use of active and responsible involvement by local participants, is highly valuable. Naturally, this must not take precedence over all the preventive measures to ensure that an accident does not occur. We did not think that after 40 years of practical experience and after 20 years of observation of the seriousness of the consequence of Chernobyl we were so unprepared today. The CLIs (local information committees) attached to basic nuclear installations are indisputably the crucial links to be used to provide the necessary training of selected citizens to help manage the emergency phase and above all the post-accident phases, on condition that they receive financial resources commensurate with the challenges to be faced. It is also important to consider increasing the competence of citizens over the whole territory. Nothing can be achieved under satisfactory conditions if the citizens are not prepared well in advance: this must begin at school, so that the population knows how to behave in these situations. We appreciate being associated with the work of CODIRPA in 'calm' phases and we try to make an active contribution at our level. The accounts from Norway and Belarus are there to prevent us from forgetting that we are all concerned. From 2008 we hope to play a constructive and committed role in confronting the challenges to be faced and thank ASN for allowing us to take part in the work of CODIPPA. (author)

  10. Expert validation of a teamwork assessment rubric: A modified Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parratt, Jenny A; Fahy, Kathleen M; Hutchinson, Marie; Lohmann, Gui; Hastie, Carolyn R; Chaseling, Marilyn; O'Brien, Kylie

    2016-01-01

    Teamwork is a 'soft skill' employability competence desired by employers. Poor teamwork skills in healthcare have an impact on adverse outcomes. Teamwork skills are rarely the focus of teaching and assessment in undergraduate courses. The TeamUP Rubric is a tool used to teach and evaluate undergraduate students' teamwork skills. Students also use the rubric to give anonymised peer feedback during team-based academic assignments. The rubric's five domains focus on planning, environment, facilitation, conflict management and individual contribution; each domain is grounded in relevant theory. Students earn marks for their teamwork skills; validity of the assessment rubric is critical. To what extent do experts agree that the TeamUP Rubric is a valid assessment of 'teamwork skills'? Modified Delphi technique incorporating Feminist Collaborative Conversations. A heterogeneous panel of 35 professionals with recognised expertise in communications and/or teamwork. Three Delphi rounds using a survey that included the rubric were conducted either face-to-face, by telephone or online. Quantitative analysis yielded item content validity indices (I-CVI); minimum consensus was pre-set at 70%. An average of the I-CVI also yielded sub-scale (domain) (D-CVI/Ave) and scale content validity indices (S-CVI/Ave). After each Delphi round, qualitative data were analysed and interpreted; Feminist Collaborative Conversations by the research team aimed to clarify and confirm consensus about the wording of items on the rubric. Consensus (at 70%) was obtained for all but one behavioural descriptor of the rubric. We modified that descriptor to address expert concerns. The TeamUP Rubric (Version 4) can be considered to be well validated at that level of consensus. The final rubric reflects underpinning theory, with no areas of conceptual overlap between rubric domains. The final TeamUP Rubric arising from this study validly measures individual student teamwork skills and can be used with

  11. Expert panels as a reference standard in orthodontic research: An assessment of published methods and reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempesi, Evangelia; Toulia, Electra; Pandis, Nikolaos

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the expert panel methodology applied in orthodontics and its reporting quality. Additionally, the relationship between the reporting quality and a range of variables was explored. PubMed was searched for orthodontic studies in which the final diagnosis or assessment was made by 2 or more experts published up to March 16, 2015. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using an established modified checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the total score was assessed using univariable linear regression. We identified 237 studies with a mean score of 9.97 (SD, 1.12) out of a maximum of 15. Critical information about panel methodology was missing in all studies. The panel composition differed substantially across studies, ranging from 2 to 646 panel members, with large variations in the expertise represented. Only 17 studies (7.2%) reported sample size calculations to justify the panel size. Panel members were partly blinded in 65 (27.4%) studies. Most studies failed to report which statistic was used to compute intrarater (65.8%) and interrater (66.2%) agreements. Journal type (nonorthodontic: β, 0.23; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.54 compared with orthodontic), publication year (β, 0; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02 for each additional year), number of authors (1-3: β, 0.30; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.74 compared with at least 6; 4-5: β, 0.18; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.33 compared with at least 6), and number of centers involved (single: β, 0.20; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.54 compared with multicenter) were not significant predictors of improved reporting. Studies published in Asia and Australia had significantly lower scores compared with those published in Europe (β, -0.54; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.17). Formal guidelines on methodology and reporting of studies involving expert panels are required. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Proposal of a system of indicators to assess the training of experts in a high-tech organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elías Hardy, Lidia Lauren; González Olaguive, Elizabeth Vicenta; Martínez Martínez, Elisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: present a proposal of a system of indicators to assess actions aimed at the training and development of experts in a high-tech organization. Methods: an analysis was conducted of the various theories dealing with the training and development of experts, examining their features and components. Design of the system of indicators was based on surveys and direct observation. The system of indicators thus designed was validated with the Delphi method, the application of the Likert scale and the statistical treatment of answers provided by experts, using median and interquartile range values to establish the consensus of experts. Results: a working definition is proposed of the concept expert based on two dimensions: qualification and performance, and individual and collective variables, indicators and measurement criteria. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0,8655) showed the internal consistency of the tool used. The median and interquartile range values obtained made it possible to establish the consensus of participants in the validation of the system of indicators. Conclusions: the system of indicators developed and its two dimensions make it possible to assess the training and development of experts at the Cuban Neuroscience Center, as well as the system of actions performed. The indicator showing the lowest results is that of productivity of experts in the training of human resources of high academic level. (author)

  13. Critical Thinking Theory to Practice: Using the Expert's Thought Process as Guide for Learning and Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Marchini, Leonardo; Cowen, Howard; Hartshorn, Jennifer E; Holloway, Julie A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Gratton, David; Solow, Catherine M; Colangelo, Nicholas; Johnsen, David C

    2017-08-01

    Critical thinking skills are essential for the successful dentist, yet few explicit skillsets in critical thinking have been developed and published in peer-reviewed literature. The aims of this article are to 1) offer an assessable critical thinking teaching model with the expert's thought process as the outcome, learning guide, and assessment instrument and 2) offer three critical thinking skillsets following this model: for geriatric risk assessment, technology decision making, and situation analysis/reflections. For the objective component, the student demonstrates delivery of each step in the thought process. For the subjective component, the student is judged to have grasped the principles as applied to the patient or case. This article describes the framework and the results of pilot tests in which students in one year at this school used the model in the three areas, earning scores of 90% or above on the assessments. The model was thus judged to be successful for students to demonstrate critical thinking skillsets in the course settings. Students consistently delivered each step of the thought process and were nearly as consistent in grasping the principles behind each step. As more critical thinking skillsets are implemented, a reinforcing network develops.

  14. Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatty, Mark E.; Beutels, Philippe; Meltzer, Martin I.; Shepard, Donald S.; Hombach, Joachim; Hutubessy, Raymond; Dessis, Damien; Coudeville, Laurent; Dervaux, Benoit; Wichmann, Ole; Margolis, Harold S.; Kuritsky, Joel N.

    2011-01-01

    Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease. PMID:21363989

  15. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

  16. Assessment of geomechanical properties, maximum depth and excavation damaged zone aspects - Expert report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amann, F.; Löw, S.; Perras, M.

    2015-11-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss National Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI discusses the expert report published on the need for the assessment of geomechanical properties and maximum depth of repositories for high, medium and low-activity nuclear wastes. Also, aspects concerning excavation damaged zones (EDZ) are considered. These are all criteria for the selection of sites as part of Phase 2 of the Swiss waste disposal project. Four questions are examined: are NAGRA’s documented basic considerations and calculations on Opalinus Clay comprehensive enough and correct, are the calculations on maximum depth correct, are the proposed storage perimeters correct with respect to depth and will NAGRA be able to take possible excavation damaged zones (EDZ) into account? Literature and references concerning the subject are quoted

  17. Application of expert systems in damage assessment of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazel Zarandi, M. H.; Sobhani, J.

    2003-01-01

    Expert systems are receiving great attentions in construction industry to support decision making processes in diagnostics, design, repair and rehabilitation of the structures. Although several expert systems have been examined in engineering since the 1970's, their applications in construction industry are rate. This was largely due to the lack of expert system tools available to represent the domain knowledge. Lack of flexibility, applicability, and robustness of the classical models, have forced the scientists to discover the ability of the expert systems in problem solving of civil engineering. This paper present an expert system for diagnosis the deterioration of concrete structures. This expert system emphasizes on cracking distress in reinforced concrete elements. A case study has been presented to examine and evaluate the proposed expert system. The system demonstrates a straightforward method for diagnosing the cause of reinforced concrete elements cracking

  18. The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

    2016-04-01

    Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

  19. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Dadgar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

  20. The value of quantitative methods for assessment of renal transplant and comparison with physician expertness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firouzi, F.; Fazeli, M.

    2002-01-01

    Radionuclide renal diagnostic studies play an important role in assessing renal allograft. Various quantitative parameters have been derived from the Radionuclide renogram to facilitate and confirm the changes in perfusion and/or function of kidney allograft. These quantitative methods were divided into parameters used for assessing renal graft perfusion and parameters used for evaluating parenchymal function. The blood flow in renal transplants can be quantified by measuring the rate of activity appearance in the kidney graft and the ratio of the integral activity under the transplanted kidney and arterial curves e.g. Hilton's perfusion index and Karachi's kidney/aortic ratio. Quantitative evaluation of graft extraction and excretion was assessed by parameters derived from 123 I/ 131 I-OH, 99 mTc-DTPA or 99 mTc-Mag renogram. In this study we review retrospectively renal transplanted patients scintigraphies that all of them under gone to renal allograft needle biopsy nearly to date of allograft scan. We performed quantitative methods for all patients. We observed perfusion parameters affected by quality of bolus injection and numerical aviations related to changes in the site and size of region of interest. Quantitative methods for renal parenchymal functions were nonspecific and far from defining a specific cause of graft dysfunction. In conclusion, neither perfusion nor parenchymal parameters have not enough diagnostic power for specific diagnosis of graft dysfunction. Physician expertness by using scintigraphic images and renogram curves is more sensitive and specific for diagnosis of renal allograft dysfunction

  1. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review Program-Expert Safety Assessments of Cosmetic Ingredients in an Open Forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Ivan J; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Heldreth, Bart; Fiume, Monice M; Gill, Lillian J

    The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) is a nonprofit program to assess the safety of ingredients in personal care products in an open, unbiased, and expert manner. Cosmetic Ingredient Review was established in 1976 by the Personal Care Products Council (PCPC), with the support of the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and the Consumer Federation of America (CFA). Cosmetic Ingredient Review remains the only scientific program in the world committed to the systematic, independent review of cosmetic ingredient safety in a public forum. Cosmetic Ingredient Review operates in accordance with procedures modeled after the USFDA process for reviewing over-the-counter drugs. Nine voting panel members are distinguished, such as medical professionals, scientists, and professors. Three nonvoting liaisons are designated by the USFDA, CFA, and PCPC to represent government, consumer, and industry, respectively. The annual rate of completing safety assessments accelerated from about 100 to more than 400 ingredients by implementing grouping and read-across strategies and other approaches. As of March 2017, CIR had reviewed 4,740 individual cosmetic ingredients, including 4,611 determined to be safe as used or safe with qualifications, 12 determined to be unsafe, and 117 ingredients for which the information is insufficient to determine safety. Examples of especially challenging safety assessments and issues are presented here, including botanicals. Cosmetic Ingredient Review continues to strengthen its program with the ongoing cooperation of the USFDA, CFA, the cosmetics industry, and everyone else interested in contributing to the process.

  2. Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-01

    In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

  3. Assessment of adherence problems in patients with serious and persistent mental illness: recommendations from the Expert Consensus Guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velligan, Dawn I; Weiden, Peter J; Sajatovic, Martha; Scott, Jan; Carpenter, Daniel; Ross, Ruth; Docherty, John P

    2010-01-01

    Poor adherence to medication treatment can have devastating consequences for patients with serious mental illness. The literature review and recommendations in this article concerning assessment of adherence are reprinted from The Expert Consensus Guideline Series: Adherence Problems in Patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness, published in 2009. The expert consensus survey contained 39 questions (521 options) that asked about defining nonadherence, extent of adherence problems in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, risk factors for nonadherence, assessment methods, and interventions for specific types of adherence problems. The survey was completed by 41 (85%) of the 48 experts to whom it was sent. When evaluating adherence, the experts considered it important to assess both behavior and attitude, although they considered actual behavior most important. They also noted the importance of distinguishing patients who are not willing to take medication from those who are willing but not able to take their medication as prescribed due to forgetfulness, misunderstanding of instructions, or financial or environmental problems, since this will affect the type of intervention needed. Although self- and physician report are most commonly used to clinically assess adherence, they are often inaccurate and may underestimate nonadherence. The experts believe that more accurate information will be obtained by asking about any problems patients are having or anticipate having taking medication rather than if they have been taking their medication; They also recommended speaking with family or caregivers, if the patient gives permission, as well as using more objective measures (e.g., pill counts, pharmacy records, smart pill containers if available, and, when appropriate, medication plasma levels). Use of a validated self-report scale may also help improve accuracy. For patients who appear adherent to medication, the experts recommended monthly assessments for

  4. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  5. Instrumentation and equipment for monitoring and controlling NPP post-accident situations. Working material. Proceedings of a specialists' meeting held in Dimitrovgrad, Russian Federation, 12-15 September 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The objectives of the Specialist's Meeting were: To provide an international forum for presentation and discussion on experience with instrumentation and equipment for monitoring and controlling NPP post-accident situations; to share experience on the design and improvements in the subject area; to identify and describe advanced features for safety and post-accident management improvements. In order to facilitate a structure discussion and not to omit important problem areas, papers on the following subjects were considered to be within the scope of the Specialist's Meeting: Analysis of existing post-accident instrumentation (in terms of range, qualification and redundancy) to support post-accident management. Requirements for post accident instrumentation and equipment - operating experience, regulations, standards; experience in upgrading of the existing instrumentation; instrumentation and equipment for emergency management systems (emergency rooms and national centers); post-accident computerized aids to assist operators; post-accident operating procedures; R and D in post-accident instrumentation, future trends. The present volume contains: (1) the papers presented by national delegates; (2) programme of the meeting; (3) description of the RIAR research facilities; and (4) list of participants. Refs, figs and tabs

  6. Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

    2017-08-15

    We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. IAEA expert review mission completes assessment of fuel cleaning incident at Paks Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The IAEA today completed its expert review mission to investigate the 10 April fuel cleaning incident at the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. The mission was requested by the Hungarian Government to provide an independent assessment of the causes and actions taken by the plant and Hungarian authorities. The team was composed of nuclear and radiation experts from the IAEA, Austria, Canada, Finland, Slovakia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In a press conference, team leader Miroslav Lipar highlighted the team's findings in five areas: On management, the team concluded that the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority and Paks are committed to improving the safety of the plant. They noted that as a result of steam generator decontamination in previous years, deposits became attached to the fuel assemblies. A decision was made to clean the fuel and contract an outside company to develop and operate a fuel cleaning process. The team found that the design and operation of the fuel cleaning tank and system was not accomplished in the manner prescribed by the IAEA Safety Standards. Neither the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority nor Paks used conservative decision-making in their safety assessments for this unproven fuel cleaning system. The team determined that there was an over-reliance on the contractor that had been selected for the design, management and operation of the fuel cleaning system. Time pressure related to a prescribed fuel outage schedule, combined with confidence generated by previous successful fuel cleaning operations, contributed to a weak assessment of a new design and operation, which involved fuel directly removed from the reactor following a planned shutdown. On regulatory oversight, the IAEA team concluded that the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority underestimated the safety significance of the proposed designs for the fuel cleaning system, which resulted in a less than rigorous review and assessment than should have been necessary

  8. A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

  9. The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

    1983-06-01

    An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

  10. An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Ruoh Juang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

  11. How do experts define relevance criteria when initiating Health Impact Assessments of national policies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraemer, Stella Rj; Gulis, Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this article is to present how the Danish Disease Prevention Committee (DDPC) members and HIA-experts understand when HIA is "relevant", which in this context means when there is "presumed to be a direct and documented effect on the health and morbidity of citizens". Method: DDPC members...... were interviewed face-to-face; HIA experts participated in an e-survey. Results: Six DDPC members were interviewed and 100 HIA-experts participated in a survey. The DDPC members consider direct as the link between determinants and the related risk factors. The HIA experts consider direct as the link...... between policy and the related risk factors. Both groups favour the use of scientific evidence according to the traditional biomedical evidence hierarchy but HIA-experts also judge that there is value in using evidence that can be considered weak such as local community knowledge. Conclusions: It is clear...

  12. Development and assessment of an Al expert system for the monitoring and diagnosis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeuchi, K.; Gagnon, A.; Cheung, A.C.; Meyer, P.E.

    1988-01-01

    Due to the rapid progress in microcomputer and software development, artificial intelligence (AI) expert systems of practical value can be built into microcomputers. An expert system for nuclear plant surveillance, diagnostics, and prognostics was developed using the Texas Instruments AI shell, Personal Consultant Plus (PC-plus) on an IBM PCAT. This expert system runs in a surveillance mode to find an abnormal operating condition. Once an abnormal behavior is found,it switches to a diagnostics mode to identify the cause of difficult, such as steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and leak. Then, the prognostics mode can be activated to predict the consequences. For this purpose, the knowledge of experts at Westinghouse for nuclear safety has been collected and processed to construct parameters and rules within the framework of a logic tree. The expert system may be used in an on-line mode via a connection to the plant computer, safety parameter display system, or a plant simulator. In addition to evaluating the diagnosis of an event and providing appropriate information required to generate an event report, this tool can also be used to review the normal recorded plant data daily to assure that no abnormal events have occurred. A limited assessment of the expert system was performed and is presented

  13. Colloquium / Preparation for nuclear post-accident. Citizens and local authorities involvement in major risks governance - proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, Michel; Villers, Anita; Sene, Monique; Godin, Francois; Quilichini, Jean-Michel; Rollinger, Francois; Delalonde, Jean-Claude; Mehl-Auget, Isabelle; Autret, Jean-Claude; Heriard Dubreuil, Gilles; Petitfrere, Michael; Lochard, Jacques; Demet, Michel; Boucherie, Jean-Claude; Calafat, Alexis; Sommade, Christian; Villain, Alain; Ragazzo, Romeo; Rengot, Marielle; Sename, Jean; Thellier, Yvette; Tremelet, David; Olszewski, Richard; Fournier, Nicolas

    2009-12-01

    During 40 years, France has chosen nuclear energy as main energy source for power generation. Today, nuclear energy covers 80% of the French electricity needs. For this reason, in France, each inhabitant lives at less than 200 km of a nuclear power plant. The September 11, 2001 terror attack has led to reconsider the nuclear risk in terms of security. In 2005, the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) has been entrusted with the preparation of a nuclear post-accident management study. This study has been mainly based on the experience feedback of the Chernobyl accident and on the dialogue with different actors of the French territory: the local authorities, the habitants, the associations and the health, environment and education actors. This colloquium represents the opening act of the joint elaboration of the management of a potential nuclear accident at the region scale. The colloquium was organized around 5 round tables: 1 - Did the nuclear safety transparency law change the situation?; 2 - Examples of pluralistic dialogues: the long-term management of a nuclear accident; 3 - How to encourage the necessary skills development of citizens? 4 - Regional development strategies in terms of nuclear risks management (incidents, effluents, wastes, transports..); 5 - New territory liabilities and citizens' legitimate aspiration in terms of health/environment: building something together. This document is the proceedings of this colloquium. It reports the exchanges between the participants

  14. Post-accident core retention for LMFBR's. 2. Technical report, 1 July 1973--30 June 1974

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-09-01

    This report describes work performed at UCLA on Post Accident Heat Removal for the period July 1973 to July 1974. The work includes a preliminary identification of sequences of events that could lead to a completely disassembled core and analysis of several in-vessel processes relevant to establishing whether or not containment can be achieved. Preliminary observations on the dry-out of debris beds are reported. The effects of both stabilizing temperature gradients and thermal radiation on increases in the downward heat transfer from a molten layer of UO 2 are found to be significant. Boiling of the molten layer is considered and the existing experimental data is found to be inadequate. Predictions of heat transfer from a downward facing surface to a low Prandtl number fluid are not available. Recommendations for future work are made. The effects of disturbances on a quiescent molten layer are presented. A simple fast method of estimating recriticality is given and an estimate of possible ramp rates is made. Areas of uncertainty requiring further work are identified. (U.S.)

  15. Assessment of features for automatic CTG analysis based on expert annotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudácek, Vacláv; Spilka, Jirí; Lhotská, Lenka; Janku, Petr; Koucký, Michal; Huptych, Michal; Bursa, Miroslav

    2011-01-01

    Cardiotocography (CTG) is the monitoring of fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine contractions (TOCO) since 1960's used routinely by obstetricians to detect fetal hypoxia. The evaluation of the FHR in clinical settings is based on an evaluation of macroscopic morphological features and so far has managed to avoid adopting any achievements from the HRV research field. In this work, most of the ever-used features utilized for FHR characterization, including FIGO, HRV, nonlinear, wavelet, and time and frequency domain features, are investigated and the features are assessed based on their statistical significance in the task of distinguishing the FHR into three FIGO classes. Annotation derived from the panel of experts instead of the commonly utilized pH values was used for evaluation of the features on a large data set (552 records). We conclude the paper by presenting the best uncorrelated features and their individual rank of importance according to the meta-analysis of three different ranking methods. Number of acceleration and deceleration, interval index, as well as Lempel-Ziv complexity and Higuchi's fractal dimension are among the top five features.

  16. Use of probabilistic risk assessment in expert system usage for nuclear power plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    The introduction of probability risk assessments (PRA's) to nuclear power plants in the Rasmussen Report (WASH-1400) gave us a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants, at least on a relative basis. While the choice of the ''source term'' and methodology in a PRA significantly influence the absolute probability and the consequences of core melt, comparison of two PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can be readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration of a plant to another by removing components or systems from service. This ratio of core melt probabilities (assuming no recovery of failed systems) obtained from two PRA calculations for different configurations was the criterion (called ''risk factor'') chosen as a basis for making a decision in an expert system as to what mitigating action, if any, would be taken to avoid a trip situation from developing. PRISIM was developed by JBF Associates of Knoxville under the sponsorship of the NRC as a system for Resident Inspectors at nuclear power plants to provide them with a relative safety status of the plant under all configurations. PRISIM calculated the risk factor---the ration of core melt probabilities of the plant under the current configuration relative to the normal configuration with all systems functioning---using an algorithm that emulates the results of the original PRA. It also presents time and core melt (assuming no recovery of systems or components)

  17. Assessment of the effectiveness of the Hungarian nuclear safety regulatory authority by international expert teams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voeroess, L.; Lorand, F.

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of the role nuclear regulatory authorities (NRA) have to fulfil and the new challenges affecting them, in the paper an overview is made on how the Hungarian NRA has evaluated and utilised the results of different international efforts in the enhancement of its effectiveness and efficiency. The reviews have been conducted by different groups of experts organised by highly recognised international organisations (e.g. IAEA, EC) and highly competent foreign regulatory bodies. The different reviews of activities and working conditions of the HAEA NSD have resulted in a generally positive picture, however, it also revealed weaknesses as well. They recognised the developments made in recent years and also appreciated the overall favourable level of nuclear safety in Hungary, identified 'good practices' and made recommendations and suggestions for the most important and most efficient ways for future improvements. These are cited or referenced in the paper. At the end, some recommendations have been formed based on the experiences gained from the review missions and from our self-assessment. (author)

  18. Stake holder pre-involvement in the post accident management of rural areas: a government perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nisbet, A.F.; Mondon, K.J.

    2002-01-01

    In 1995 NRPB published an assessment of the applicability of a range of agricultural countermeasures for use in the UK. The study recommended that, for the purposes of contingency planning, a working group should be set up to bring together key groups that would be involved in intervention in -rural areas following a nuclear accident. This idea was taken forward by Government and in 1997 the Agriculture and Food Countermeasures Working Group was established. Participation is at a senior level by those involved in making policy decisions. The original membership has been expanded, and of the 22 representatives, 11 are currently from non-Government Organisations. The Group has met on five occasions and has successfully addressed all of its four terms of reference. From 2001 it will form the UK node of a European network of similar stakeholder groups being set up in Finland, France, Belgium and Greece. (author)

  19. Expert consensus on an in vitro approach to assess pulmonary fibrogenic potential of aerosolized nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clippinger, Amy J; Ahluwalia, Arti; Allen, David; Bonner, James C; Casey, Warren; Castranova, Vincent; David, Raymond M; Halappanavar, Sabina; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Jarabek, Annie M; Maier, Monika; Polk, William; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Sayes, Christie M; Sayre, Phil; Sharma, Monita; Stone, Vicki

    2016-07-01

    The increasing use of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in consumer products and their potential to induce adverse lung effects following inhalation has lead to much interest in better understanding the hazard associated with these nanomaterials (NMs). While the current regulatory requirement for substances of concern, such as MWCNTs, in many jurisdictions is a 90-day rodent inhalation test, the monetary, ethical, and scientific concerns associated with this test led an international expert group to convene in Washington, DC, USA, to discuss alternative approaches to evaluate the inhalation toxicity of MWCNTs. Pulmonary fibrosis was identified as a key adverse outcome linked to MWCNT exposure, and recommendations were made on the design of an in vitro assay that is predictive of the fibrotic potential of MWCNTs. While fibrosis takes weeks or months to develop in vivo, an in vitro test system may more rapidly predict fibrogenic potential by monitoring pro-fibrotic mediators (e.g., cytokines and growth factors). Therefore, the workshop discussions focused on the necessary specifications related to the development and evaluation of such an in vitro system. Recommendations were made for designing a system using lung-relevant cells co-cultured at the air-liquid interface to assess the pro-fibrogenic potential of aerosolized MWCNTs, while considering human-relevant dosimetry and NM life cycle transformations. The workshop discussions provided the fundamental design components of an air-liquid interface in vitro test system that will be subsequently expanded to the development of an alternative testing strategy to predict pulmonary toxicity and to generate data that will enable effective risk assessment of NMs.

  20. [The methodological basis of expert assessment of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment in the framework of civil law proceedings].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolkin, Iu I; Murzova, T V; Mirzoev, Kh M

    2011-01-01

    The authors discuss peculiarities of the performance of forensic medical expertise in the cases of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment. The methodological basis of expert assessment has been created to be applied in situations related to the unfavourable outcomes of dental care.

  1. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  2. Experiments for post accident hydrogen dispersion in F.M. vault using helium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bajaj, S.S.; Bhattacharyya, D.; Mishra, S.

    1994-01-01

    Under certain postulated accident scenarios involving a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) simultaneous with impairment of Emergency Core Cooling (ECC), generation of hydrogen due to reaction between the zirconium clad and coolant is predicted in the coolant channel. The hydrogen generated in the coolant channels would eventually get released either in Fuelling Machine (FM) vault or in the pump room atmosphere depending on the location of the break. Analytical studies carried out so far to estimate the time dependent hydrogen concentration in the accident FM Vault consider the entire vault as a single volume. Tests were, therefore, planned to assess the mixing within the FM vault atmosphere with and without the availability of cooling fan units by releasing a known quantity of helium (instead of hydrogen) at selected locations and monitoring the relative concentration of helium in air at various locations. Test was conducted by releasing about 360 1 helium over a period of to 4 minutes at preselected locations and by measuring the relative concentration (leak rates indicated by helium leak detectors) at various locations in the FM vault. The results of cases with fans operating indicate repeatable and consistent trends of good mixing in the vault. For other cases (non turbulent, still condition) the results are sensitive to various factors including orientation of release. The former set of cases (turbulent. fans operating) are more relevant for postulated accident conditions. (author). 1 tab., 18 figs

  3. Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beheshti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

  4. The TEX-I real-time expert system, applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmal, N.; Leder, H.J.; Schade, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    Interatom, a subsidiary company of Siemens, is developing expert systems for the technical domain. These systems are operating in various industrial applications like flexible manufacturing or plant configuration, based on a domain-specific expert system shell, developed by Interatom. Additional projects are focusing on real-time diagnostics, e.g., for nuclear power plants. The authors report in this paper about a diagnosis expert system for the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor SNR-300, which uses new real-time tools, developed within the German TEX-I project (technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis, and process control). The purpose of the system is to support the reactor operators in assessing plant status in real time, based on readings from many sensors. By on-line connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components, and recommended operator response in abnormal conditions. In the present knowledge acquisition and test phase, the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulator is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behavior of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers, and cooling components. Additionally, the system's response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated

  5. Return on experience by the Marcoule-Gard CLI in the management of a post-accident situation following a nuclear or radiological event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charre, J.P.

    2010-01-01

    After having recalled the legal framework which strengthens the roles and responsibilities of local authorities with respect to natural or technological risks, this short report describes the activity of the Marcoule-Gard CLI (Commission locale d'information, information local commission) in the management of a post-accident situation during a nuclear crisis. This commission notably participates to several work groups, and to some exercises (two examples - a simulated crisis and a real one - are briefly reported and analyzed)

  6. Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Timothy S.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Johnson, Timothy L.

    2011-01-01

    A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO 2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: → Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. → Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. → Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. → These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. → The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

  7. Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Timothy S. [Eastern Research Group, Inc., 110 Hartwell Avenue 1, Lexington, MA 02421-3134l (United States); Patino-Echeverri, Dalia, E-mail: dalia.patino@duke.edu [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States); Johnson, Timothy L. [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO{sub 2} capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: > Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. > Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. > Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. > These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. > The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

  8. [Aspects of family-oriented diagnosis in compulsory legal family expert assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mladek, G; Löffler, M; Nickel, P

    1990-06-01

    In forensic psychology, recommendations that courts request when granting one of the parents the right of child upbringing after a divorce pose a problem for the person who is required to give such expert judgment. The authors describe the difficult situation he faces when having to decide for and, at the same time, against one of the parents. A good knowledge of family psychology and pathopsychology is essential, and for drawing up the expertise and stating his reasons, the expert requires methodical resources. The authors describe four procedures of relational diagnosis and recommend the combined use of these in conjunction with methods that have been employed so far.

  9. Nuclear safeguards in challenging times [Experts on nuclear safeguards and verification assess the global picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, W.S.; Hillerman, J.

    2007-01-01

    Meeting at the IAEA's International Safeguards Symposium in October 2006, more than 500 experts from 60-plus countries and organizations addressed current and future challenges related to safeguards concepts, approaches, technologies, and experience. Sessions addressed five main issues driving developments: Current challenges to the safeguards system; Further strengthening safeguards practices and approaches; Improving the collection and analysis of safeguards information; Advances in safeguards techniques and technology; and Future challenges. Every four to five years, the IAEA brings together safeguards experts from all over the world at international symposia. In October 2001, they met in the shadow of 9/11 and the symposium included a special session on the prevention of nuclear terrorism

  10. Assessment of giant panda habitat based on integration of expert system and neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X.; Skidmore, A.K.; Bronsveld, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    To conserve giant panda effectively, it is important to understand the spatial pattern and temporal change of its habitat. Mapping is an effective approach for wildlife habitat evaluation and monitoring. The application of recently developed artificial intelligence tools, including expert systems

  11. Personal factors influencing agreement between expert and self-reported assessments of an occupational exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilson, Heather K; Sass-Kortsak, Andrea; Lou, W Y Wendy; Purdham, James T

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed to identify personal factors associated with expert and respondent agreement on past occupational exposure. Epidemiologic data was collected from 1995 to 1998 in a community-based, case-control study of prostate cancer. Using longest jobs and excluding agreement on "never" exposure, self-reported and expert estimates of ever/ never exposure, by skin or ingestion, to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were compared. Agreement between respondents and the expert was 53.9 percent (N=1,038), with overreporting being more common than underreporting relative to the expert (31.8 percent versus 14.4 percent). In multiple logistic regression models, white-collar occupational status was significantly associated with overreporting (odds ratio [OR] = 0.142; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.095-0.211; blue-collar versus white-collar), while age was associated with underreporting (OR=1.077; 95 percent CI: 1.043-1.112; one-year increase). Neither job satisfaction nor risk perception appeared to confound other associations. In future studies, overreporting by white-collar workers might be avoided by providing clearer definitions of exposure, whereas elderly respondents may require aids to enhance exposure recall.

  12. Overall welfare assessment of pregnant sow housing systems based on interviews with experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Metz, J.H.M.; Spruijt, B.M.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    In interviews with 11 pig experts the main housing systems for pregnant sows were identified as tethering (T), individual housing in stalls (IS), group housing with stalls (GS), trickle feeding or biofix (B), electronic sow feeding (ESF), and outdoor housing with huts (O). The family pen system

  13. Complexity of Judgment: What Makes Possible the Convergence of Expert and Nonexpert Ratings in Assessing Creativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galati, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    This work is part of the debate regarding the possibility to judge the creativity of a particular object (an idea, a painting, an industrial product, etc.), by expert or nonexpert raters, with the same results or not. The study is focused on the concept "complexity of judgment" considered fundamental to fully understand the problem. The…

  14. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O.; Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  15. Quest for the real-time for the safety analysis code Cathare 2 used in the post-accident simulator Sipa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruby, A.; Antoni, O. [CEA Grenoble, 38 (France). Dept. de Thermohydraulique et de Physique; Creach, V.; Dufeil, Ph. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France); Rose, Ch.; Iffenecker, F. [Electricite de France, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of the SCAR project is to use the CATHARE French thermal-hydraulic accident code in the SIPA simulator (Post-Accident Simulator) and extend SIPA to reactor cold shutdown states. The quest for real-time has been one of the key themes of the project since it began in 1997. The required CPU time depends on the computing power and on the ability of CATHARE to converge as fast as possible on the solution. Three main tasks have been scheduled to contain the lag between the simulation and the real-time: -1) Parallelism in CATHARE has been developed with shared-memory model (using OPEN MP). Standardized and adapted to the numerical method and the structure of CATHARE, it has enabled parallel tasks in 95% of the code with efficient parallel loops on the elements, and an optimized but limited parallelism in the solver. Validation has been carried out all along the task, ensuring the binary identity of results for 10 representative accident transients, whatever the number of processors used on each computer of the SCAR project. -2) Convergence has been improved for 20 CATHARE transients, ranging from the 100% full power state to cold-shutdown for maintenance state. A method based on the definition of maximum lag criteria in function of an estimated power of computers has been developed, revealing coding errors and leading to numerical improvements without any regression of physical law validation. A second phase has started in 2003 on another series of 25 transients within the simulator. -3) A techno-watch policy (using benchmarking) has allowed to keep up to date with progress in computer power throughout the duration of the project. It has consisted in comparing the performance of computers for 12 standard CATHARE input decks using an elementary time relevant of the computing machines for a given modeling of plant series. Furthermore, development validation and performance assessment tools have been developed at the same time. As a result of these three tasks

  16. FISSION 2120: a program for assessing the need for engineered safety feature grade air cleaning systems in post accident environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G. Jr.; Michlewicz, D.; Thomas, J.

    1979-01-01

    A computer program FISSION 2120, has been developed to evaluate the need for various engineered Safety Feature grade air cleaning systems to mitigate radiation exposures resulting from accidential releases of radioactivity. Those systems which are generally investigated include containment sprays with chemical additives, containment fan coolers with charcoal filters, and negative pressure maintenance systems for double barrier containments with either one-pass filtration or recirculation with filtration. The program can also be used to calculate the radiation doses to control room personnel. This type of analysis is directed towards the various protection aspects of the emergency ventilation system and involves the modeling of the radiological source terms and the atmospheric transport of the radioactive releases. The modeling is enhanced by the inherent capability of the program to accommodate simultaneous release of activity from several sources and to perform a dose evaluation for a wide range of the design characteristics of control room emergency air filtration systems. Use of the program has resulted in considerable savings in the time required to perform such analyses and in the selection of the most cost-effective Engineered Safety Features

  17. Assessment of chemical processes for the post-accident decontamination of reactor-coolant systems. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munson, L.F.; Card, C.J.; Divine, J.R.

    1983-02-01

    Previously used chemical decontamination processes and potentially useful new decontamination processes were examined for the usefulness following a reactor accident. Both generic fuel damage accidents and the accident at TMI-2 were considered. A total of fourteen processes were evaluated. Process evaluation included data in the following categories: technical description of the process, recorded past usage, effectiveness, process limitation, safety consideration, and waste management. These data were evaluated, and cost considerations were presented along with a description of the applicability of the process to TMI-2 and development and demonstration needs. Specific recommendations regarding a primary-system decontamination development program to support TMI-2 recovery were also presented

  18. Experts' perspective on the performance of Chinese technical guidelines for Plan Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Jia; Sun Sun; Bao Cunkuan; Chen Fan; Jiang Dahe

    2011-01-01

    This research was to evaluate the Technical Guideline (HJ/T130-2003) effectiveness based on data resource from a questionnaire survey and interviews on EIA experts. The result demonstrated that the guideline served mainly as a quality control measure for PEIA products, and only a small proportion of experts considered it effective due to its inconsistency with the newly released Chinese PEIA Regulation (2009) and poor practicability. Current status of SEA implementation in China was also studied in terms of application fields, effectiveness evaluation, and major issues to affect SEA, to conclude that SEA implementation in China is premature, and with limited effectiveness. The major problem was the lack of effective methodologies and technical tools. Recommendations for revising the PEIA Guideline and advices to improving SEA implementation in China were accordingly proposed.

  19. Expert system for the reliability assessment of hydro-carbon transporting pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukacs, J.; Nagy, G.; Toeroek, I. [Department of Mechanical Technology, University of Miskolc, Miskolc-Egyetemvaros (Hungary)

    1998-12-31

    Safety operation, condition monitoring, periodical inspection and rehabilitation of high-pressure hydro-carbon transporting pipelines are a complex problem. To answer arising questions is inconceivable without technical-critical evaluation of defects - originated during manufacturing or operation - can be found on the pipeline. This evaluation must be in line with requirements of our age, i.e. it has to assert such concept of which basis is not the `possible worst` but the `just happening wrong`. Solving these problems without application of computer resources is inconceivable in our time. The final purpose of the solution is the expert system and among the components of the expert system primarily the development of the knowledge base is needed. The paper demonstrates a possible structure of the knowledge base, furthermore its fundamental elements and their contents (defect types, evaluation possibilities of defects, categorisation of pipelines) and summaries the prospective advantages of its application. (orig.) 27 refs.

  20. Expert assessment of preventive measures in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozerova, I I; Prilipko, V A; Myshkovska, A A

    2013-01-01

    An expert evaluation of preventive measures focused on population health maintenance in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement taking into account the limitations of the provisions of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine on the clean-up of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. The research survey was applied using a peer review method. The three-level (national, regional, district) expert workgroup was involved been employed within recovery of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. Professional experience of minimum 10 years, corresponding profile and current position were the requirements for selection. A simple streamlining the values of paired or consistent comparison was applied on the primary empirical data. The arrangements made in recent years by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and ministries engaged in clean-up and recovery from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident are ineffective. Costs from the Fund for the implementation of measures to clean-up the consequences of the Chornobyl disaster and social protection are reduced. There is no consensus among experts regarding some constraint of an action of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine "On the status and social protection of citizens affected by the Chornobyl disaster" on the principles of social protection and healthcare of the population living in contaminated areas. In addressing the social and health consequences of the Chornobyl disaster the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine just for a long time has passes no amendment to the legislation on the subject. At that there are several restrictions in force for a large number of articles of the existing laws that were adopted in 1991. The mentioned above exacerbates social strain and destroys the "citizen-state relationship". The extreme need has emerged in a comprehensive public review of existing laws with involvement of multidisciplinary group of experts to a "round table" to justify the draft laws. Ozerova Ju. Ju., Prylypko V. A., Myshkovska A. A

  1. Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polido, Alexandra, E-mail: a.polido@campus.fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal); João, Elsa, E-mail: elsa.joao@strath.ac.uk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Level 5, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, Scotland (United Kingdom); Ramos, Tomás B., E-mail: tabr@fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal)

    2016-04-15

    Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

  2. Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

    2011-01-01

    Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

  3. Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

    1982-05-01

    This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

  4. Proceedings of the research conference on post-accident waste management safety (RCWM2016) and the technical seminar on safety research for radioactive waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motooka, Takafumi; Yamagishi, Isao

    2017-03-01

    Collaborative Laboratories for Advanced Decommissioning Science (CLADS) is responsible to promote international cooperation in the R and D activities on the decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and to develop the necessary human resources. CLADS held the Research Conference on Post-accident Waste Management Safety (RCWM2016) on 7th November, 2016 and the Technical Seminar on Safety Research for Radioactive Waste Storage on 8th November, 2016. This report compiles the abstracts and the presentation materials in the above conference and seminar. (author)

  5. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  6. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  7. Observable phenomena that reveal medical students' clinical reasoning ability during expert assessment of their history taking: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haring, Catharina M; Cools, Bernadette M; van Gurp, Petra J M; van der Meer, Jos W M; Postma, Cornelis T

    2017-08-29

    During their clerkships, medical students are meant to expand their clinical reasoning skills during their patient encounters. Observation of these encounters could reveal important information on the students' clinical reasoning abilities, especially during history taking. A grounded theory approach was used to analyze what expert physicians apply as indicators in their assessment of medical students' diagnostic reasoning abilities during history taking. Twelve randomly selected clinical encounter recordings of students at the end of the internal medicine clerkships were observed by six expert assessors, who were prompted to formulate their assessment criteria in a think-aloud procedure. These formulations were then analyzed to identify the common denominators and leading principles. The main indicators of clinical reasoning ability were abstracted from students' observable acts during history taking in the encounter. These were: taking control, recognizing and responding to relevant information, specifying symptoms, asking specific questions that point to pathophysiological thinking, placing questions in a logical order, checking agreement with patients, summarizing and body language. In addition, patients' acts and the course, result and efficiency of the conversation were identified as indicators of clinical reasoning, whereas context, using self as a reference, and emotion/feelings were identified by the clinicians as variables in their assessment of clinical reasoning. In observing and assessing clinical reasoning during history taking by medical students, general and specific phenomena to be used as indicators for this process could be identified. These phenomena can be traced back to theories on the development and the process of clinical reasoning.

  8. The TEX-I real-time expert system applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmal, N.; Doerbecker, K.; Leder, H.J.; Rueckert, M.; Schade, H.J.

    1990-01-01

    Within the German TEX-I Project, which was sponsored by the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology, several companies developed industrial applications of technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis and process control. The purpose of the diagnosis expert system reported here is to support the operators of the LMFBR SNR-300 in assessing plant status in real-time, based on readings from a large number of sensors. By online connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components and recommend operators response in abnormal conditions. The systems architecture consists of two basic subsystems, an inference engine and an intelligent process interface, implemented in Lisp on a Symbolics-Workstation. The inference engine has been derived from BABYLON, a hybrid shell developed by the German computer research institute GMD. This shell includes rules, prologue, constraints and an object oriented frame processor. The extended version has a component description language and a top-down diagnosis scheme including a mechanism of attention focusing. Inference run as independent, quasi-parallel processes. These so-called inference tasks can interrupt or abort each other, if higher priority events must be processed. The complete system is modelled in an object oriented matter and is divided into several subsystems and each subsystem into its physical components. At present the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulation is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behaviour of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers and cooling components. Additionally, the systems response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated. Several types of anomalies

  9. Development of a non-expert risk assessment method for hand-arm related tasks (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Kraker, H. de

    2014-01-01

    To support health and safety practitioners in their obligation of risk assessment the 'Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method' (HARM) was developed. This tool can be used by any type of company for risk assessment of developing arm, neck or shoulders symptoms (pain) resulting from light manual tasks.This

  10. Semi-passive pad (post-accident dilution) system combined with recombiners or igniters for e.g., multiple-unit VVER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckardt, B.A.

    1997-01-01

    In order to reduce the risk associated with hypothetical severe nuclear accidents, it has been necessary to develop means for hydrogen control which are capable of handling high H 2 production rates of several m 3 /s. These systems and components should be of simple and, as far as possible, passive design. Moreover, their efficiency must not be affected by the H 2 production scenario. To meet these requirements, Siemens has supplemented its dual process for hydrogen reduction using recombiners and igniters by developing a new process: the semi-passive Post-Accident Dilution (PAD) System. The objective of the work presented in this paper was to design an alternative approach for hydrogen control comprising post-accident CO 2 dilution combined with recombiners or igniters for postulated severe accidents that result in significant hydrogen releases. The combined technique was to keep the dynamic loads arising inside the containment to within a range of only a few millibars, even in the event of transient hydrogen release and distribution processes accompanied by combustion, and was thus to prevent any hazard for safety-related equipment. (author)

  11. Lessons learned from a review of post-accident sampling systems, high range effluent monitors and high concentration particulate iodine samplers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.; Knox, W.H.; White, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Post-accident sampling systems (PASS), high range gaseous effluent monitors and sampling systems for particulates and iodine in high concentrations have been reviewed at twenty-one licensee sites in Region I of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission which includes fifteen BWR's and fourteen PWR's. Although most of the installed PASS met the criteria, the highest operational readiness was found in on-line systems that were also used for routine sampling and analysis. The detectors used in the gaseous effluent monitors included external ion chambers, GM tubes, organic scintillators and Cd-Te solid state crystals. Although all were found acceptable, each had its own inherent limitations in the conversion of detector output to the time varying concentration of a post-accident mixture of noble gases. None of the installed particulate and iodine samplers fully met all of the criteria. Their principal limitations included a lack of documentation showing that they could obtain a representative sample and that many of them would collect of an excessive amount of activity at the design criteria. 10 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  12. Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    d'Alquen Daniela

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1 develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2 evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3 explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. Methods The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. Results A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p Conclusions The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness.

  13. Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography: a national needs assessment of competencies for general and expert practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Lisa M; Woo, Michael Y; Lee, A Curtis; Wiss, Ray; Socransky, Steve; Frank, Jason R

    2015-01-01

    Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography (EM-PoCUS) is a core competency for residents in the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and College of Family Physicians of Canada emergency medicine (EM) training programs. Although EM-PoCUS fellowships are currently offered in Canada, there is little consensus regarding what training should be included in a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship curriculum or how this contrasts with the training received in an EM residency.Objectives To conduct a systematic needs assessment of major stakeholders to define the essential elements necessary for a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship training curriculum. We carried out a national survey of experts in EM-PoCUS, EM residency program directors, and EM residents. Respondents were asked to identify competencies deemed either nonessential to EM practice, essential for general EM practice, essential for advanced EM practice, or essential for EM-PoCUS fellowship trained (‘‘expert’’) practice. The response rate was 81% (351 of 435). PoCUS was deemed essential to general EM practice for basic cardiac, aortic, trauma, and procedural imaging. PoCUS was deemed essential to advanced EM practice in undifferentiated symptomatology, advanced chest pathologies, and advanced procedural applications. Expert-level PoCUS competencies were identified for administrative, pediatric, and advanced gynecologic applications. Eighty-seven percent of respondents indicated that there was a need for EM-PoCUS fellowships, with an ideal length of 6 months. This is the first needs assessment of major stakeholders in Canada to identify competencies for expert training in EM-PoCUS. The competencies should form the basis for EM-PoCUS fellowship programs in Canada.

  14. [Psychometric assessment of defense mechanisms: correlation between questionnaire and expert rating. Initial study of validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reister, G; Fellhauer, R F; Franz, M; Wirth, T; Schellberg, D; Schepank, H; Tress, W

    1993-01-01

    Within the limits of an epidemiological longitudinal field survey on prevalence and course of psychogenic disorders a high-risk-population suffering from medical psychogenic impairment was investigated. The study was conducted in order to verify an etiological multi-level-model of psychogenic disorders in relation to the socialempiric variables "critical life events" and "social support" as well as the depth psychological oriented construct "personality". Besides other instruments a self rating scale based on Vallant's hierarchical model of defense, i.e. the german adaptation of the DSQ (Defense Style Questionnaire) of Bond and coworkers, was used for the accurate measurement of relevant personality parameters. Although defense processes predominantly work unconscious, manifestations of defense mechanisms could be measured indirectly by means of the rating scale. Its essential dimensions separated clinical patients from a group of healthy controls. Furthermore an immature organisation of defense was found to be related to psychogenic impairment. Concerning self- and expert-rating a significant correlation between "immature defense" and the defense mechanisms "schizoid phantasy", "projection" and "acting out" was proved.

  15. Heart Health Risk Assessment System: A Nonintrusive Proposal Using Ontologies and Expert Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Garcia-Valverde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization, the world’s leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc. and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.. With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch.

  16. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin W. Abbott,; Jeremy B. Jones,; Edward A.G. Schuur,; F.S. Chapin, III; Bowden, William B.; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte,; Howard E. Epstein,; Michael D. Flannigan,; Tamara K. Harms,; Teresa N. Hollingsworth,; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Susan M. Natali,; Adrian V. Rocha,; Tank, Suzanne E.; Merrit R. Turetsky,; Jorien E. Vonk,; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.

    2016-01-01

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  17. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    OpenAIRE

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approa...

  18. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  19. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  20. Have the consequences of reactor accidents for the population been well assessed? Six questions to the experts in the field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohl, Peter

    2016-07-15

    Six questions to the experts in the field are posed: (1) Why is the assessment of accident consequences not separated in long-term and peak exposure? (2) Why is the exposure due to I-131 seen critical mainly in regard to the thyroid? (3) Do you have any reliable relations of health risk versus peak exposure? (4) Why do you not abolish the LNT assumption and replace it with a threshold model? (5) Why do you include indirect, psycho-somatic effects in assessing the consequences of reactor accidents when this is not customary with accidents with often more casualties? (6) How can the number of Chernobyl-assigned thyroid cancers have risen from some 600 about to some 4,000 today, when the latency period is in the range of 4 to 5 years?.

  1. IAEA OSART/EXPERT follow-up review mission completes assessment of actions taken by Paks Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    On 28 February 2004 the IAEA completed its follow-up review mission to assess the actions taken by Paks nuclear power plant (NPP) in response to the Agency's recommendations and suggestions made during the 2001 Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) mission and the 2003 Expert mission that investigated the fuel cleaning incident at the Paks NPP in Hungary. The mission was requested by the Hungarian Government to provide an independent assessment of the actions taken by Paks NPP. The IAEA team determined that the actions taken by Paks have resulted in tangible progress and concluded that all issues were either fully resolved or progressing satisfactorily. In a press conference, the team's conclusions in five areas were highlighted: management, Regulatory Oversight/Interface, operations and maintenance, including operating experience, radiation protection, emergency planning and preparedness, and transparency

  2. OECD/NEA expert group on uncertainty analysis for criticality safety assessment: Results of benchmark on sensitivity calculation (phase III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivanova, T.; Laville, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire IRSN, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay aux Roses (France); Dyrda, J. [Atomic Weapons Establishment AWE, Aldermaston, Reading, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom); Mennerdahl, D. [E Mennerdahl Systems EMS, Starvaegen 12, 18357 Taeby (Sweden); Golovko, Y.; Raskach, K.; Tsiboulia, A. [Inst. for Physics and Power Engineering IPPE, 1, Bondarenko sq., 249033 Obninsk (Russian Federation); Lee, G. S.; Woo, S. W. [Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety KINS, 62 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of); Bidaud, A.; Sabouri, P. [Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie LPSC, CNRS-IN2P3/UJF/INPG, Grenoble (France); Patel, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States); Bledsoe, K.; Rearden, B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL, M.S. 6170, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Gulliford, J.; Michel-Sendis, F. [OECD/NEA, 12, Bd des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    The sensitivities of the k{sub eff} eigenvalue to neutron cross sections have become commonly used in similarity studies and as part of the validation algorithm for criticality safety assessments. To test calculations of the sensitivity coefficients, a benchmark study (Phase III) has been established by the OECD-NEA/WPNCS/EG UACSA (Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment). This paper presents some sensitivity results generated by the benchmark participants using various computational tools based upon different computational methods: SCALE/TSUNAMI-3D and -1D, MONK, APOLLO2-MORET 5, DRAGON-SUSD3D and MMKKENO. The study demonstrates the performance of the tools. It also illustrates how model simplifications impact the sensitivity results and demonstrates the importance of 'implicit' (self-shielding) sensitivities. This work has been a useful step towards verification of the existing and developed sensitivity analysis methods. (authors)

  3. Assessing the Economics of Dengue: Results from a Systematic Review of the Literature and Expert Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constenla, Dagna; Garcia, Cristina; Lefcourt, Noah

    2015-11-01

    The economics of dengue is complex and multifaceted. We performed a systematic review of the literature to provide a critical overview of the issues related to dengue economics research and to form a background with which to address the question of cost. Three literature databases were searched [PubMed, Embase and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS)], covering a period from 1980 to 2013, to identify papers meeting preset inclusion criteria. Studies were reviewed for methodological quality on the basis of a quality checklist developed for this purpose. An expert survey was designed to identify priority areas in dengue economics research and to identify gaps between the methodology and actual practice. Survey responses were combined with the literature review findings to determine stakeholder priorities in dengue economics research. The review identified over 700 papers. Forty-two of these papers met the selection criteria. The studies that were reviewed presented results from 32 dengue-endemic countries, underscoring the importance of dengue as a global public health problem. Cost analyses were the most common, with 21 papers, followed by nine cost-effectiveness analyses and seven cost-of-illness studies, indicating a relatively strong mix of methodologies. Dengue annual overall costs (in 2010 values) ranged from US$13.5 million (in Nicaragua) to $56 million (in Malaysia), showing cost variations across countries. Little consistency exists in the way costs were estimated and dengue interventions evaluated, making generalizations around costs difficult. The current evidence suggests that dengue costs are substantial because of the cost of hospital care and lost earnings. Further research in this area will broaden our understanding of the true economic impact of dengue.

  4. FLIGHT EXPERT RISK ASSESSMENT OF AIRCRAFT GROUP AT THEIR PROXIMITY USING A PROGRAM-MANAGER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Mikhaylin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an approach to solving the problem of aircraft flight safety. External threats in the form of aircraft-offenders are considered. The algorithm of collision danger coefficients with aircraft-offenders is presented, оn the basis of which the side-program manager of flight safety monitoring is formed.Two danger coefficients in the horizontal and vertical planes are introduced. Based on various flight situations four possible decisions are offered: absence of any aircraft activity, flight level change, deviation in the horizontal plane and both in vertical and horizontal planes. For each case the formulas of double evaluation are received. They take into account different parameters of aircraft relative motion. Based on these estimates it is possible to build a final expert evaluation for the considered flight situations. It is implemented in the onboard program-manager. The structure of the program is presented. At the program-manager output the expected minimized risk evaluation and the selected alternative of the avoidance of aircraft from the meeting point are formed. The paper presents a detailed description of the procedures to test the performance of the program-manager algorithms. The initial conditions for different flight situations are provided. The simulation results of the algorithm are given. The danger coefficients comparison when performing maneuvers to prevent dangerous approach and in their absence is illustrated. It is shown that the maneuver implementation recommended by program-manager algorithms decreases the resulting danger coefficient. Particular attention was paid to aircraft landing, especially if the landing area had several conflicting aircraft.

  5. Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stroma invasion in women with endometrial cancer -interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, LS; Lindqvist, PG; Flöter Rådestad, A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists in the prediction of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion by transvaginal ultrasound in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: Video-clips of the corpus- and cervix uteri of 53 women...... with endometrial cancer, examined preoperatively by the same ultrasound expert, were integrated in a digitalized survey. Nine ultrasound experts and 9 gynaecologists evaluated presence or absence of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion. Histopathology from hysterectomy specimen was used as gold standard.......001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative ultrasound assessment of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion in endometrial cancer is best performed by ultrasound experts, as they show a higher degree of agreement to histopathology and higher interobserver reproducibility in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion....

  6. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging-Statement from an Expert Workshop

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peter, Szabolcs; Saris, Wim H. M.; Mathers, John C.; Feskens, Edith; Schols, Annemie; Navis, Gerjan; Kuipers, Folkert; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient

  7. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  8. Looking beyond the forest: Using harvest plots, gap analysis, and expert consultations to assess effectiveness, engage stakeholders, and inform policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, J; Polus, S; Brereton, L; Chilcott, J; Ward, S E; Pfadenhauer, L M; Rehfuess, E A

    2018-03-01

    We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home-based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home-based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Assessing the risk of pesticide environmental impact in several Argentinian cropping systems with a fuzzy expert indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arregui, María C; Sánchez, Daniel; Althaus, Rafael; Scotta, Roberto R; Bertolaccini, Isabel

    2010-07-01

    The introduction of transgenic soybean (Glycine max, L.) varieties resistant to glyphosate (GR soybeans) has rapidly expanded in Argentina, increasing pesticide use where only grasslands were previously cultivated. The authors compared an estimate of environmental risk for different crops and active ingredients using the IPEST index, which is based on a fuzzy-logic expert system. For IPEST calculations, four modules are defined, one reflecting the rate of application, the other three reflecting the risk for groundwater, surface water and air. The input variables are pesticide properties, site-specific conditions and characteristics of the pesticide application. The expert system calculates the value of modules according to the degree of membership of the input variables to the fuzzy subsets F (favourable) and U (unfavourable), and they can be aggregated following sets of decision rules. IPEST integrated values of >or= 7 reflect low environmental risk, and values of environmental contamination, and they are mainly used in maize. Groundwater was the most affected compartment. Fuzzy logic provided an easy tool combining different environmental components with pesticide properties to give a simple and accessible risk assessment. These findings provide information about active ingredients that should be replaced in order to protect water and air from pesticide contamination. Copyright (c) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  12. Welfare assessment of laying hens in furnished cages and non-cage systems: assimilating expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodenburg, T.B.; Tuyttens, F.; Reu, de K.; Herman, L.; Zoons, J.; Sonck, B.

    2008-01-01

    It is extremely difficult to carry out an assessment of welfare in an entirely objective manner. The choice of welfare indicators, as well as the assignment of relative weightings to these indicators, both involve a certain degree of subjectivity. The aim of this study was to create a possible

  13. Expert Workshop Assesses the Significance of Birth Location on Maternal and Infant Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    On March 6–7, 2013, some of the greatest minds in research and the provision of maternity care came together for a workshop on “Research Issues in the Assessment of Birth Settings,” hosted by the prestigious Institute of Medicine (IOM) and sponsored by the W.K. Kellogg Foundation.

  14. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioecon...

  15. CONSTRUCTION INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN POTENTIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON THE BASIS OF EXPERT DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriy N. Krymzin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In article offers the hierarchical system of creation the integrated indicator of personnel capacity in the higher educationinstitution, based on value judgment ofteachers. The integrated assessment of level of personnel potential is constructedon the basis of formation of a large gradation number, characterizing such system indicators, as personnel structure, reproduction of scientific and scientific and pedagogical shots and productivity ofresearch and educational and methodical activity of personnel structure.

  16. Radioactive waste management: the contribution of expert assessments to the implementation of safe management channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besnus, F.; Jouve, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    The national Radioactive Materials and Waste Management (PNGMDR) sets objectives and defines waste management channels for all radioactive wastes produced in France. Within this framework, IRSN (Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety) expertise aims at assessing the consistency and robustness of the technical solutions set in place by the plan. As a result of this assessment, the main safety issues and priorities for upgrading the safety of the various facilities that will receive and treat waste are identified on the one hand, while possible foreseen weaknesses in terms of storage or treatment capacities are put into light on the other hand. To carry out such assessment, IRSN backs on its 'in depth' knowledge of facilities, acquired through the examination of each major step of waste management facility life (creation, commissioning, re-examination of safety...). This knowledge feeds in turn the examination of the waste management strategies implemented by operators. In addition, special attention is given to the achievement of waste packages of favourable properties as well as to the conditions for their safe disposal, since these two aspects are most often key factors for optimizing the safety of the whole management channel. By its capacity to overlook all steps of waste management channels, from production to final disposal, IRSN intends to contribute to the objective of enhancing the global safety of the management of radioactive waste. (authors)

  17. Final report of the Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel amended safety assessment of Calendula officinalis-derived cosmetic ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, F Alan; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Belsito, Donald V; Hill, Ronald A; Klaassen, Curtis D; Liebler, Daniel C; Marks, James G; Shank, Ronald C; Slaga, Thomas J; Snyder, Paul W

    2010-01-01

    Calendula officinalis extract, C officinalis flower, C officinalis flower extract, C officinalis flower oil, and C officinalis seed oil are cosmetic ingredients derived from C officinalis. These ingredients may contain minerals, carbohydrates, lipids, phenolic acids, flavonoids, tannins, coumarins, sterols and steroids, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes, triterpenes, tocopherols, quinones, amino acids, and resins. These ingredients were not significantly toxic in single-dose oral studies using animals. The absence of reproductive/developmental toxicity was inferred from repeat-dose studies of coriander oil, with a similar composition. Overall, these ingredients were not genotoxic. They also were not irritating, sensitizing, or photosensitizing in animal or clinical tests but may be mild ocular irritants. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel concluded that these ingredients are safe for use in cosmetics in the practices of use and concentration given in this amended safety assessment.

  18. IAEA Expert Team Completes Mission to Review Japan's Nuclear Power Plant Safety Assessment Process, 31 January 2012, Tokyo, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Full text: A team of international nuclear safety experts today completed a review of Japan's two-stage process for assessing nuclear safety at the nation's nuclear power plants. The team began its work on 23 January and delivered a Preliminary Summary Report to Japanese officials today and plans to finish the final report by the end of February. National safety assessments and their peer review by the IAEA are a key component of the IAEA's Action Plan on Nuclear Safety, which was approved by the Agency's 152 Member States following last year's nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. At the request of the Government of Japan, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organized a 10-person team to review the Japanese Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency's (NISA) approach to the Comprehensive Assessments for the Safety of Existing Power Reactor Facilities and how NISA examines the results submitted by nuclear operators. The IAEA safety review mission consisted of five IAEA and three international nuclear safety experts. To help its review, the team held meetings in Tokyo with officials from NISA, the Japanese Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) Organization, and the Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO), and the team visited the Ohi Nuclear Power Station to see an example of how Japan's Comprehensive Safety Assessment is being implemented by nuclear operators. 'We concluded that NISA's instructions to power plants and its review process for the Comprehensive Safety Assessments are generally consistent with IAEA Safety Standards', said team leader James Lyons, director of the IAEA's Nuclear Installation Safety Division. In its Preliminary Summary Report delivered today, the team highlighted a number of good practices and identified some improvements that would enhance the overall effectiveness of the Comprehensive Safety Assessment process. Good practices identified by the mission team include: Based on NISA instructions and commitments of the

  19. Response tree evaluation: experimental assessment of an expert system for nuclear reactor operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Blackman, H.S.

    1985-09-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) sponsored a project performed by EG and G Idaho, Inc., at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to evaluate different display concepts for use in nuclear reactor control rooms. Included in this project was the evaluation of the response tree computer-based decision aid and its associated displays. The response tree evaluation task was deisgned to (1) assess the merit of the response tree decision aid and (2) develop a technical basis for recommendations, guidelines, and criteria for the design and evaluation of computerized decision aids for use in reactor control rooms. Two major experiments have been conducted to evaluate the response tree system. This report emphasizes the conduct and results of the second experiment. An enhanced version of the response tree system, known as the automated response tree system, was used in a controlled experiment using trained reactor operators as test subjects. This report discusses the automated response tree system, the design of the evaluation experiment, and the quantitative results of the experiment. The results of the experiment are compared to the results of the previous experiment to provide an integrated perspective of the response tree evaluation project. In addition, a subjective assessment of the results addresses the implications for the use of advanced, ''intelligent'' decision aids in the reactor control room

  20. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  1. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  2. On the balanced blending of formally structured and simplified approaches for utilizing judgments of experts in the assessment of uncertain issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2003-01-01

    Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues

  3. When health technology assessment is confidential and experts have no power: the case of Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csanádi, Marcell; Löblová, Olga; Ozierański, Piotr; Harsányi, András; Kaló, Zoltán; McKee, Martin; King, Lawrence

    2018-03-26

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is not simply a mechanistic technical exercise as it takes place within a specific institutional context. Yet, we know little about how this context influences the operation of HTA and its ability to influence policy and practice. We seek to demonstrate the importance of considering institutional context, using a case study of Hungary, a country that has pioneered HTA in Central and Eastern Europe. We conducted 26 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with public- and private-sector stakeholders. We found that while the HTA Department, the Hungarian HTA organisation, fulfilled its formal role envisaged in the legislation, its potential for supporting evidence-based decision-making was not fully realised given the low levels of transparency and stakeholder engagement. Further, the Department's practical influence throughout the reimbursement process was perceived as being constrained by the payer and policy-makers, as well as its own limited organisational capacity. There was also scepticism as to whether the current operational form of the HTA process delivered 'good value for money'. Nevertheless, it still had a positive impact on the development of a broader institutional HTA infrastructure in Hungary. Our findings highlight the importance of considering institutional context in analysing the HTA function within health systems.

  4. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging—Statement from an Expert Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabolcs Péter

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient status for health has been illustrated, in particular for elderly and specific patient groups. The nutrient profile of individuals can be connected to phenotypes, like hypertension or obesity, as well as to socio-economic data. This approach provides information on the relationship between nutrition (nutrient intake and status and health outcomes and, for instance, allows us to use the findings to communicate and advocate a healthy lifestyle. Nutrition is complex: a broader profile of nutrients should be considered rather than focusing solely on a single nutrient. Evaluating food patterns instead of intake of individual nutrients provides better insight into relationships between nutrition and health and disease. This approach would allow us to provide feedback to individuals about their status and ways to improve their nutritional habits. In addition, it would provide tools for scientists and health authorities to update and develop public health recommendations.

  5. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging-Statement from an Expert Workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péter, Szabolcs; Saris, Wim H M; Mathers, John C; Feskens, Edith; Schols, Annemie; Navis, Gerjan; Kuipers, Folkert; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

    2015-12-16

    A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient status for health has been illustrated, in particular for elderly and specific patient groups. The nutrient profile of individuals can be connected to phenotypes, like hypertension or obesity, as well as to socio-economic data. This approach provides information on the relationship between nutrition (nutrient intake and status) and health outcomes and, for instance, allows us to use the findings to communicate and advocate a healthy lifestyle. Nutrition is complex: a broader profile of nutrients should be considered rather than focusing solely on a single nutrient. Evaluating food patterns instead of intake of individual nutrients provides better insight into relationships between nutrition and health and disease. This approach would allow us to provide feedback to individuals about their status and ways to improve their nutritional habits. In addition, it would provide tools for scientists and health authorities to update and develop public health recommendations.

  6. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain; [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrader-Frechette, K. [University of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States)

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA`S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA`s done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA`s to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA`s include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain.

  7. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrader-Frechette, K.

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA'S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA's done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA's to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA's include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain

  8. Seismic source zone characterization for the seismic hazard assessment project PEGASOS by the Expert Group 2 (EG1b)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhard, M.; Gruenthal, G.

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the seismic hazard related to the four NNP sites in NW Switzerland was performed within the project PEGASOS. To account for the epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of the characterization of seismic source zones in the frame of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, four different expert teams have developed and defended their models in the frame of an intensive elicitation process. Here, the results of one out of four expert groups are presented. The model of this team is based first of all on considerations regarding the large scale tectonics in the context of the Alpine collision, and neotectonic constraints for defining seismic source zones. This leads to a large scale subdivision based on the structural 'architectural' considerations with little input from the present seismicity. Each of the eight large zones was characterized by the style of present-day faulting, fault orientation, and hypo central depth distribution. A further subdivision of the larger zones is performed based on information provided by the seismicity patterns. 58 small source zones have been defined in this way, each of them characterized by the available tectonic constrains, as well as the pros and cons of different existing geologic views connected to them. Of special concern in this respect were the discussion regarding thin skinned vs. thick skinned tectonics, the tectonic origin of the 1356 Basel earthquake, the role of the Permo-Carboniferous graben structures, and finally the seismogenic orientation of faults with respect to the recent crustal stress field. The uncertainties connected to the delimitations of the small source zones have been handled in form of their regrouping, formalized by the logic tree technique. The maximum magnitudes were estimated as discretized probability distribution functions. After de-clustering the used ECOS earthquake catalogue and an analysis of data completeness as a function of time the parameters of the

  9. GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

    2016-03-01

    A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredouille, Corinne; Pouchoulin, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Revis, Joana; Bonastre, Jean-François; Giovanni, Antoine

    2009-12-01

    This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists). The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices), rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0-3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

  11. Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corinne Fredouille

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists. The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices, rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0–3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

  12. An Expert System Solution for the Quantitative Condition Assessment of Electrical Distribution Systems in the United States Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    Distribution system ... ......... 4 2. Architechture of an Expert system .. .............. 66 vi List of Tables Table Page 1. Prototype Component Model...expert system to properly process work requests Ln civil engineering (8:23). Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). EPRI is a private organization ...used (51) Training Level. The level of training shop technicians receive, and the resulting proficiency, are important in all organizations . Experts 1

  13. Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Arfan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

  14. Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Alquen, Daniela; De Boeck, Kris; Bradley, Judy; Vávrová, Věra; Dembski, Birgit; Wagner, Thomas O F; Pfalz, Annette; Hebestreit, Helge

    2012-02-06

    The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF) established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2) evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3) explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p value 0.105 ± 0.024, p change over time. The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness. © 2012 d’Alquen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  15. A review of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate by four independent expert panels and comparison to the IARC assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary M; Aardema, Marilyn; Acquavella, John; Berry, Sir Colin; Brusick, David; Burns, Michele M; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Garabrant, David; Greim, Helmut A; Kier, Larry D; Kirkland, David J; Marsh, Gary; Solomon, Keith R; Sorahan, Tom; Roberts, Ashley; Weed, Douglas L

    2016-09-01

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph in 2015 concluding that glyphosate is "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A) based on limited evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals. It was also concluded that there was strong evidence of genotoxicity and oxidative stress. Four Expert Panels have been convened for the purpose of conducting a detailed critique of the evidence in light of IARC's assessment and to review all relevant information pertaining to glyphosate exposure, animal carcinogenicity, genotoxicity, and epidemiologic studies. Two of the Panels (animal bioassay and genetic toxicology) also provided a critique of the IARC position with respect to conclusions made in these areas. The incidences of neoplasms in the animal bioassays were found not to be associated with glyphosate exposure on the basis that they lacked statistical strength, were inconsistent across studies, lacked dose-response relationships, were not associated with preneoplasia, and/or were not plausible from a mechanistic perspective. The overall weight of evidence from the genetic toxicology data supports a conclusion that glyphosate (including GBFs and AMPA) does not pose a genotoxic hazard and therefore, should not be considered support for the classification of glyphosate as a genotoxic carcinogen. The assessment of the epidemiological data found that the data do not support a causal relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma while the data were judged to be too sparse to assess a potential relationship between glyphosate exposure and multiple myeloma. As a result, following the review of the totality of the evidence, the Panels concluded that the data do not support IARC's conclusion that glyphosate is a "probable human carcinogen" and, consistent with previous regulatory assessments, further concluded that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.

  16. Management of a radiological emergency. Experience feedback and post-accident management; Gestion d'une urgence radiologique. Retour d'experience et gestion post-accidentelle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubiau, Ph. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Clamart (France)

    2007-07-15

    In France, the organization of crisis situations and the management of radiological emergency situations are regularly tested through simulation exercises for a continuous improvement. Past severe accidents represent experience feedback resources of prime importance which have led to deep changes in crisis organizations. However, the management of the post-accident phase is still the object of considerations and reflections between the public authorities and the intervening parties. This document presents, first, the nuclear crisis exercises organized in France, then, the experience feedback of past accidents and exercises, and finally, the main aspects to consider for the post-accident management of such events: 1 - Crisis exercises: objectives, types (local, national and international exercises), principles and progress, limits; 2 - Experience feedback: real crises (major accidents, other recent accidental situations or incidents), crisis exercises (experience feedback organization, improvements); 3 - post-accident management: environmental contamination and people exposure, management of contaminated territories, management of populations (additional protection, living conditions, medical-psychological follow up), indemnification, organization during the post-accident phase; 4 - conclusion and perspectives. (J.S.)

  17. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  18. Assessment of occupational risks to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: Validation of an empirical non-expert approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam El-Zein

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The expert method of exposure assignment involves relying on chemists or hygienists to estimate occupational exposures using information collected on study subjects. Once the estimation method for a particular contaminant has been made available in the literature, it is not known whether a non-expert, briefly trained by an expert remaining available to answer ad hoc questions, can provide reliable exposure estimates. We explored this issue by comparing estimates of exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF obtained by an expert to those from a non-expert. Using a published exposure matrix, both the expert and non-expert independently calculated a weekly time-weighted average exposure for 208 maternal jobs by considering three main determinants: the work environment, magnetic field sources, and duration of use or exposure to given sources. Agreement between assessors was tested using the Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement. The overall mean difference in estimates between the expert and non-expert was 0.004 μT (standard deviation 0.104. The 95% limits of agreement were −0.20 μT and +0.21 μT. The work environments and exposure sources were almost always similarly identified but there were differences in estimating exposure duration. This occurred mainly when information collected from study subjects was not sufficiently detailed. Our results suggest that following a short training period and the availability of a clearly described method for estimating exposures, a non-expert can cost-efficiently and reliably assign exposure, at least to ELF-MF.

  19. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  20. Estimation of performance shaping factors for overtime and shift length using expert judgment based on related assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vickroy, S.C.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study to estimate human performance and error rate under several amounts of overtime and different shifts without the use of human subjects. Ten chronobiology, fatigue, and shift scheduling experts were administered a questionnaire to rate the effects that several shifts and overtime amounts might have on the performance of individuals working under their constraints. The data from the ratings were transformed to generate performance shaping factors used for sensitivity analyses on three previously published probabilistic risk assessments. This procedure was performed to determine the effect that different shift schedules and amounts of overtime would have on overall plant performance. The results of the analysis suggest that the risk due to human errors caused by the shift scheduling and overtime could increase the risk of accidents at a nuclear power plant caused by humans by up to a factor of five. This could increase the chance for an accident at a nuclear power plant by a factor of about three

  1. [Assessment and training of strength and balance for fall prevention in the elderly: recommendations of an interdisciplinary expert panel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granacher, U; Muehlbauer, T; Gschwind, Y J; Pfenninger, B; Kressig, R W

    2014-08-01

    The proportion of elderly people in societies of western industrialized countries is continuously rising. Biologic aging induces deficits in balance and muscle strength/power in old age, which is responsible for an increased prevalence of falls. Therefore, nationwide and easy-to-administer fall prevention programs have to be developed in order to contribute to the autonomy and quality of life in old age and to help reduce the financial burden on the public health care system due to the treatment of fall-related injuries. This narrative (qualitative) literature review deals with a) the reasons for an increased prevalence of falls in old age, b) important clinical tests for fall-risk assessment, and c) evidence-based intervention/training programs for fall prevention in old age. The findings of this literature review are based on a cost-free practice guide that is available to the public (via the internet) and that was created by an expert panel (i.e., geriatricians, exercise scientists, physiotherapists, geriatric therapists). The present review provides the scientific foundation of the practice guide.

  2. Ethnization of the collective consciousness of Russians in the Moscow region: An expert assessment of the process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A A Onosov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the existing scientific approaches, the article continues considering the ethnicization of the mass consciousness of Russian citizens, which takes place under the internal and international labor migration. The article presents the results of the situational analysis and humanitarian expertise of the Russian population’s ethnic identity formation in Moscow and the Moscow Region as Russia’s main attractors of international labor migrants. Based on the statistical data, public opinion survey data and expert assessments, the authors present an empirical model of ethnic identity with theoretical validation and interpretation provided. The study of ethnic identity is accompanied by an insight into the causes and factors of the Russians’ collective consciousness ethnicization, explication of the real content of this process with regard to specific conditions of its manifestation contributing to intensification or weakening of ethnicization. Then the ethnicization of consciousness is considered in the broad context of global ethnic-social dynamics: as a part and reflection of the overall civilizational process determining that the rise of ethnic self-awareness in various social groups and regional communities, not only in Russia, but also far abroad, is a forced response to the globalization as it is practiced in the contemporary world.

  3. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  4. Using health technology assessment to assess the value of new medicines: results of a systematic review and expert consultation across eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelis, Aris; Lange, Ansgar; Kanavos, Panos

    2018-01-01

    Although health technology assessment (HTA) systems base their decision making process either on economic evaluations or comparative clinical benefit assessment, a central aim of recent approaches to value measurement, including value based assessment and pricing, points towards the incorporation of supplementary evidence and criteria that capture additional dimensions of value. To study the practices, processes and policies of value-assessment for new medicines across eight European countries and the role of HTA beyond economic evaluation and clinical benefit assessment. A systematic (peer review and grey) literature review was conducted using an analytical framework examining: (1) 'Responsibilities and structure of HTA agencies'; (2) 'Evidence and evaluation criteria considered in HTAs'; (3) 'Methods and techniques applied in HTAs'; and (4) 'Outcomes and implementation of HTAs'. Study countries were France, Germany, England, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain. Evidence from the literature was validated and updated through two rounds of feedback involving primary data collection from national experts. All countries assess similar types of evidence; however, the specific criteria/endpoints used, their level of provision and requirement, and the way they are incorporated (e.g. explicitly vs. implicitly) varies across countries, with their relative importance remaining generally unknown. Incorporation of additional 'social value judgements' (beyond clinical benefit assessment) and economic evaluation could help explain heterogeneity in coverage recommendations and decision-making. More comprehensive and systematic assessment procedures characterised by increased transparency, in terms of selection of evaluation criteria, their importance and intensity of use, could lead to more rational evidence-based decision-making, possibly improving efficiency in resource allocation, while also raising public confidence and fairness.

  5. Post-Accident Waste Management in Ukraine : Challenges and Steps Needed to Resolve the Accident Waste Problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilochytska, T.; Zinkevich, L.; Shybetskyi, I.; Krone, J.

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: • Solving the problem of management of “Chernobyl waste” requires: - a systematic review of the existing norms and regulations with respect to best international practice of radioactive waste management; - improvement of the existing classification / characterization of radioactive waste with a focus on disposal; - improvement of the safety assessment approaches for licensing the disposal of accident waste, taking into account relevant safety features and site specific conditions; - involving of international experience and support to plan and perform safety related activity on the Shelter Object transformation

  6. INSTALLATION OF A POST-ACCIDENT CONFINEMENT HIGH-LEVEL RADIATION MONITORING SYSTEM IN THE KOLA NUCLEAR POWER STATION (UNIT 2) IN RUSSIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GREENE,G.A.; GUPPY,J.G.

    1998-09-01

    This is the final report on the INSP project entitled, ``Post-Accident Confinement High-Level Radiation Monitoring System'' conducted by BNL under the authorization of Project Work Plan WBS 1.2.2.6 (Attachment 1). This project was initiated in February 1993 to assist the Russians in reducing risks associated with the continued operation of older Soviet-designed nuclear power plants, specifically the Kola VVER-440/230 Unit 2, through improved accident detection capability, specifically by the installation of a dual train high-level radiation detection system in the confinement of Unit 2 of the Kola NPP. The major technical objective of this project was to provide, install and make operational the necessary hardware inside the confinement of the Kola NPP Unit 2 to provide early and reliable warning of the release of radionuclides from the reactor into the confinement air space as an indication of the occurrence of a severe accident at the plant. In addition, it was intended to provide hands-on experience and training to the Russian plant workers in the installation, operation, calibration and maintenance of the equipment in order that they may use the equipment without continued US assistance as an effective measure to improve reactor safety at the plant.

  7. INSTALLATION OF A POST-ACCIDENT CONFINEMENT HIGH-LEVEL RADIATION MONITORING SYSTEM IN THE KOLA NUCLEAR POWER STATION (UNIT 2) IN RUSSIA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GREENE, G.A.; GUPPY, J.G.

    1998-01-01

    This is the final report on the INSP project entitled, ''Post-Accident Confinement High-Level Radiation Monitoring System'' conducted by BNL under the authorization of Project Work Plan WBS 1.2.2.6 (Attachment 1). This project was initiated in February 1993 to assist the Russians in reducing risks associated with the continued operation of older Soviet-designed nuclear power plants, specifically the Kola VVER-440/230 Unit 2, through improved accident detection capability, specifically by the installation of a dual train high-level radiation detection system in the confinement of Unit 2 of the Kola NPP. The major technical objective of this project was to provide, install and make operational the necessary hardware inside the confinement of the Kola NPP Unit 2 to provide early and reliable warning of the release of radionuclides from the reactor into the confinement air space as an indication of the occurrence of a severe accident at the plant. In addition, it was intended to provide hands-on experience and training to the Russian plant workers in the installation, operation, calibration and maintenance of the equipment in order that they may use the equipment without continued US assistance as an effective measure to improve reactor safety at the plant

  8. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  9. Commitment of involved actors in the preparation of accidental and post-accident situations: European experiments; Engagement des parties prenantes a la preparation aux situations accidentelles et post-accidentelles: experiences Europeennes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, Th. [CEPN, 28 rue de la Redoute, 92260 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2010-07-01

    The author briefly describes some approaches developed within the EURANOS European research programme between 2004 and 2009 which aims at promoting the building up of a European network (NERIS) for the management of nuclear accidental and post-accident situations. Notably, he comments the experiment which took place in the Montbeliard district where two types of radiological events have been modelled and simulated: an accident in the Fessenheim nuclear power plant with two scenarios of release, and a transportation accident with a release of radioactive caesium 137. He also evokes the Norwegian experience and some other actions in Finland, Great-Britain, Spain and Slovakia where reflections on the management of accidental and post-accident situations or crisis exercises have been organized

  10. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  11. Volumes of radionuclide into the basins of water while the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station and a specifics of radiation situation development in the post-accidents periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Standritchuk, O.Z.; Maksin, V.I.; Goncharuk, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    There was stated total content of radionuclide pollution, rejected to the environment in consequence of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station, specifics of qualitative and quantitative change which supposes the division of post-accident period into five conventional post-accident periods. There were given the data about the levels of main fragmentation radionuclide activity in river water, atmospheric precipitation and sewage of the objects of sanitary treatment in May 1986. According to these data there were estimated the volumes of radioactive pollution rejection to the Kiev basins of water (1.56 centre dot 10 10 Ku, that is equal to 144,57 kg of radionuclides or 3,67 % of their mass in reactor) and their going into the Dnieper river. There was shown an interconnection of all season state of water basins which are near to Chernobyl nuclear power station, with specific development of radiation situation in them after the accident. There was proposed a probated variant of improvement of the traditional technology of drinking water preparation from the open water source within 1-2 post-accident periods

  12. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

  13. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle

    2016-01-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

  14. Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

    2018-05-29

    Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

  15. Ischemic Heart Disease and Work Disability in Patients Treated at the Internal Medicine Consultation and Assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: ischemic heart disease represents a major challenge given the large number of people affected by this condition, its increasing contribution to overall mortality, the frequent disability resulting from it, and the complexity and high cost of its treatment. Objective: to describe the work disability caused by ischemic heart disease in patients treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted including all patients with ischemic heart disease treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality from October 2012 to July 2013. The variables analyzed were: age, sex, occupation, years of work and accrued salary, clinical diagnosis, length of time the condition had been present and associated chronic diseases; existence of prior assessment by an Expert Medical Labor Commission and decision reached, previous days of sick leave and current decision of the commission. The data were analyzed using SPSS (version 18.0 and the results are shown in tables and graphs as numbers and percentages. Results: a predominance of men was observed. Forty two point nine percent were service workers and the average number of years of work was 24.60. Forty two point nine percent were previously assessed by the commission. Two hundred one point thirteen days of sick leave were granted and social security expenditure in a month was high. Diabetes mellitus was the most common chronic disease followed by hypertension, obesity and dyslipidemia. Of the workers previously assessed, half received permanent and temporary disability benefits. Conclusions: ischemic heart disease causes different degrees of disability. Its costs in terms of social security are increasing.

  16. AQUILA: assessment of quality in lower limb arthroplasty. An expert Delphi consensus for total knee and total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijls, Bart G; Dekkers, Olaf M; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; van der Heide, Huub J L; Van der Linden-Van der Zwaag, Henrica M J; Nelissen, Rob G H H

    2011-07-22

    In the light of both the importance and large numbers of case series and cohort studies (observational studies) in orthopaedic literature, it is remarkable that there is currently no validated measurement tool to appraise their quality. A Delphi approach was used to develop a checklist for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability of case series and cohorts in total hip and total knee arthroplasty with a focus on aseptic loosening. A web-based Delphi was conducted consisting of two internal rounds and three external rounds in order to achieve expert consensus on items considered relevant for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability. The internal rounds were used to construct a master list. The first external round was completed by 44 experts, 35 of them completed the second external round and 33 of them completed the third external round. Consensus was reached on an 8-item reporting quality checklist, a 6-item methodological checklist and a 22-item generalizability checklist. Checklist for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability for case series and cohorts in total hip and total knee arthroplasty were successfully created through this Delphi. These checklists should improve the accuracy, completeness and quality of case series and cohorts regarding total hip and total knee arthroplasty.

  17. IAEA expert assessment of basic issues associated with the preparation and implementation of the Temelin nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horak, B.

    1990-01-01

    An independent IAEA team composed of foreign experts was invited to Temelin with the aim to review the plant with respect to nuclear safety of the site, organization of construction activities, implementation of the construction including quality assurance aspects, preparation of operation, radioactive waste management, reactor core physics, and safety system design. Final reports conclude that the site has a low seismicity and favorable meteorological, hydrogeological and demographic conditions, and thus is well suited to the construction of a nuclear power plant. It has been suggested that within CEZ (the Czech Power Company, the utility operating all power plants in the Czech Republic), all activities associated with nuclear power should be concentrated in one division which would be responsible for safety supervision, technical assistance, and overall construction management. Particular efforts must be devoted to quality assurance. The expert team stated that in its design, the WWER-1000 reactor approaches state-of-the-art pressurized water reactors which are being launched in other countries. (M.D.)

  18. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-11-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts' exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1-4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. The Spearman correlation (r(s)) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately high (weighted kappa range=0.60-0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (r(s)=-0.37-0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47-78%) than airborne measurements (16-50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies.

  19. Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

  20. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  1. Theoretical and experimental research on the use of expert systems (ES in assessing risks of failure in metallurgical companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Iancu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The systems’ engineering has reached an explosive development of intelligent systems technology which solves complex problems based on human expertise accumulated in the past and following the processes of learning and reasoning very similar to those of the biological brain. In this article, the concept of the proposed expert system is the result of interdisciplinary researches (computer science, management, accounting and business administration, etc., which are designed to provide a tool for top management work force of a listed metallurgical company. The inference machine will provide in the end score functions for Altman, Conan Holder model and rating which eventually can be combined into a single model that will forecast the company’s evolution in coming years.

  2. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

  3. Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane

    2018-01-01

    Introduction Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. Material and methods The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. Results A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room. PMID:29293635

  4. Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane; Crochet, Patrice

    2018-01-01

    Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room.

  5. Impact of the WHO FCTC over the first decade: a global evidence review prepared for the Impact Assessment Expert Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung-Hall, Janet; Craig, Lorraine; Gravely, Shannon; Sansone, Natalie; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-06-07

    To present findings of a narrative review on the implementation and effectiveness of 17 Articles of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) during the Treaty's first decade. Published reports on global FCTC implementation; searches of four databases through June 2016; hand-search of publications/online resources; tobacco control experts. WHO Convention Secretariat global progress reports (2010, 2012, 2014); 2015 WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic; studies of social, behavioural, health, economic and/or environmental impacts of FCTC policies. Progress in the implementation of 17 FCTC Articles was categorised (higher/intermediate/lower) by consensus. 128 studies were independently selected by multiple authors in consultation with experts. Implementation was highest for smoke-free laws, health warnings and education campaigns, youth access laws, and reporting/information exchange, and lowest for measures to counter industry interference, regulate tobacco product contents, promote alternative livelihoods and protect health/environment. Price/tax increases, comprehensive smoking and marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment are associated with decreased tobacco consumption/health risks and increased quitting. Mass media campaigns and youth access laws prevent smoking initiation, decrease prevalence and promote cessation. There were few studies on the effectiveness of policies in several domains, including measures to prevent industry interference and regulate tobacco product contents. The FCTC has increased the implementation of measures across several policy domains, and these implementations have resulted in measurable impacts on tobacco consumption, prevalence and other outcomes. However, FCTC implementation must be accelerated, and Parties need to meet all their Treaty obligations and consider measures that exceed minimum requirements. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  6. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

  7. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  8. Medical expert system for assessment of coronary heart disease destabilization based on the analysis of the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serkova, Valentina K.; Pavlov, Sergey V.; Romanava, Valentina A.; Monastyrskiy, Yuriy I.; Ziepko, Sergey M.; Kuzminova, Nanaliya V.; Wójcik, Waldemar; DzierŻak, RóŻa; Kalizhanova, Aliya; Kashaganova, Gulzhan

    2017-08-01

    Theoretical and practical substantiation of the possibility of the using the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM) is performed. Expert system for the assessment of coronary heart disease (CHD) destabilization on the base of the analysis of soluble vascular adhesion molecules level is developed. Correlation between the increase of VCAM level and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with different variants of CHD progression is established. Association of chronic nonspecific vascular inflammation activation and CHD destabilization is shown. The expedience of parallel determination of sVCAM and CRP levels for diagnostics of CHD destabilization and forecast elaboration is noted.

  9. European region case study the ethos project for post-accident rehabilitation in the area of belarus contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paterson, J.

    2004-01-01

    As the worst civilian nuclear accident, the Chernobyl disaster presented the authorities first in the Soviet Union and then in the independent republics with an unprecedented problem. Strenuous and costly efforts were made to limit the effects of the accident and then to cope with the evacuation or rehabilitation as appropriate of the contaminated areas. By the mid-1990's, however, there was increasing evidence that the problems were over-taxing traditional responses. Into this context, a French team of specialists from a range of disciplines entered with a view to attempting improvements, but without preconceived ideas of what they would do or how they would do it. Beginning by listening to the people of the area of Belarus selected for the so-called ETHOS project, they discovered a profound distrust of the authorities and experts born of the perceived shortcomings of the official responses to the problems to date. They thus worked in close co-operation with the people both to identify the problems that concerned them and to develop solutions that took account of local opportunities and constraints. This interim report on a case study examining the ETHOS project is based on interviews with a wide range of people in the area of the project. It presents the problems identified by interviewees with the initial responses of the authorities and then their assessment of the ETHOS approach. The overall finding is that where public confidence has been lost in the context of an event such as the Chernobyl disaster, the authorities need to make a special effort to establish trust to a point where confidence returns. Traditional top-down responses appear to have exacerbated and reinforced the loss of confidence in this case whereas the approach of the ETHOS team appears to have succeeded in building trust to a significant degree - perhaps even to a point where there may be evidence that confidence is returning. (author)

  10. Hippocampal volume change measurement: quantitative assessment of the reproducibility of expert manual outlining and the automated methods FreeSurfer and FIRST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Emma R; de Jong, Remko A; Knol, Dirk L; van Schijndel, Ronald A; Cover, Keith S; Visser, Pieter J; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

    2014-05-15

    To measure hippocampal volume change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), expert manual delineation is often used because of its supposed accuracy. It has been suggested that expert outlining yields poorer reproducibility as compared to automated methods, but this has not been investigated. To determine the reproducibilities of expert manual outlining and two common automated methods for measuring hippocampal atrophy rates in healthy aging, MCI and AD. From the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), 80 subjects were selected: 20 patients with AD, 40 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 20 healthy controls (HCs). Left and right hippocampal volume change between baseline and month-12 visit was assessed by using expert manual delineation, and by the automated software packages FreeSurfer (longitudinal processing stream) and FIRST. To assess reproducibility of the measured hippocampal volume change, both back-to-back (BTB) MPRAGE scans available for each visit were analyzed. Hippocampal volume change was expressed in μL, and as a percentage of baseline volume. Reproducibility of the 1-year hippocampal volume change was estimated from the BTB measurements by using linear mixed model to calculate the limits of agreement (LoA) of each method, reflecting its measurement uncertainty. Using the delta method, approximate p-values were calculated for the pairwise comparisons between methods. Statistical analyses were performed both with inclusion and exclusion of visibly incorrect segmentations. Visibly incorrect automated segmentation in either one or both scans of a longitudinal scan pair occurred in 7.5% of the hippocampi for FreeSurfer and in 6.9% of the hippocampi for FIRST. After excluding these failed cases, reproducibility analysis for 1-year percentage volume change yielded LoA of ±7.2% for FreeSurfer, ±9.7% for expert manual delineation, and ±10.0% for FIRST. Methods ranked the same for reproducibility of 1

  11. Comprehensive Diagnostic Assessment of Health Status of Patients with Asthma or COPD : A Delphi Panel Study among Dutch Experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Akker, Edmée F M M; van't Hul, Alex J.; Birnie, Erwin; Chavannes, Niels H.; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; In't Veen, Johannes C C M

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive diagnostic assessment is needed to improve understanding of the health status of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. Therefore, this study investigated which components and subsequent instruments should be part of a holistic assessment in secondary

  12. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  13. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, parametric studies, and selection of system codes. The Cladding and Core Materials and Fuel Concepts task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment Task Force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (INL), while the Cladding Task Force will be chaired by a representative from France (Marie Moatti, Electricite de France [EdF]) and the Fuels Task Force will be chaired by a representative from Japan (Masaki Kurata, Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA]). This report provides an overview of the Systems Assessment Task Force charter and status of work accomplishment.

  14. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments

  15. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments.

  16. Energy from gas hydrates - assessing the opportunities and challenges for Canada: report of the expert panel on gas hydrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    Gas hydrates form when water and natural gas combine at low temperatures and high pressures in regions of permafrost and in marine subseafloor sediments. Estimates suggest that the total amount of natural gas bound in hydrate form may exceed all conventional gas resources, or even the amount of all combined hydrocarbon energy. Gas from gas hydrate could provide a potentially vast new source of energy to offset declining supplies of conventional natural gas in North America and to provide greater energy security for countries such as Japan and India that have limited domestic sources. However, complex issues would need to be addressed if gas hydrate were to become a large part of the energy future of Canada. Natural Resources Canada asked the Council of Canadian Academies to assemble a panel of experts to examine the challenges for an acceptable operational extraction of gas hydrates in Canada. This report presented an overview of relevant contextual background, including some basic science; the medium-term outlook for supply and demand in markets for natural gas; broad environmental issues related to gas hydrate in its natural state and as a fuel; and an overview of Canada's contribution to knowledge about gas hydrate in the context of ongoing international research activity. The report also presented current information on the subject and what would be required to delineate and quantify the resource. Techniques for extracting gas from gas hydrate were also outlined. The report also addressed safety issues related to gas hydrate dissociation during drilling operations or release into the atmosphere; the environmental issues associated with potential leakage of methane into the atmosphere and with the large volumes of water produced during gas hydrate dissociation; and jurisdictional and local community issues that would need to be resolved in order to proceed with the commercial exploitation of gas hydrate. It was concluded that there does not appear to be

  17. Methane Risk Assessment in Underground Mines by Means of a Survey by the Panel of Experts (Sope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugeniusz Krause

    2014-01-01

    Originality/value: The obtained values of the indicators of methane risk assessment and analysis of their changes showed that the proposed method can be an important element in the design and construction of a modern methane safety system in coal mines. It provides the possibility of controlling this risk and enables the minimization of its consequences in accordance with the criteria of their acceptance, adopted in this paper. The method does not replace the currently used methods of methane risk assessment, but complements them in a significant and modern way.

  18. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C.; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-01-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts’ exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1–4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. Spearman correlation (rs) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately-high (weighted kappa range=0.60–0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (rs= -0.37–0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47–78%) than airborne measurements (16–50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately-high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies. PMID:24736099

  19. Knowledge Acquisition and Memory Effects Involving an Expert System Designed as a Learning Tool for Internal Control Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenard, Mary Jane

    2003-01-01

    The assessment of internal control is a consideration in all financial statement audits, as stressed by the Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 78. According to this statement, "the auditor should obtain an understanding of internal control sufficient to plan the audit" (Accounting Standards Board, 1995, p. 1). Therefore, an…

  20. Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2015-10-15

    In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic

  1. Validation of the tool assessment of clinical education (AssCE): A study using Delphi method and clinical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfmark, Anna; Mårtensson, Gunilla

    2017-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to establish the validity of the tool Assessment of Clinical Education (AssCE). The tool is widely used in Sweden and some Nordic countries for assessing nursing students' performance in clinical education. It is important that the tools in use be subjected to regular audit and critical reviews. The validation process, performed in two stages, was concluded with a high level of congruence. In the first stage, Delphi technique was used to elaborate the AssCE tool using a group of 35 clinical nurse lecturers. After three rounds, we reached consensus. In the second stage, a group of 46 clinical nurse lecturers representing 12 universities in Sweden and Norway audited the revised version of the AssCE in relation to learning outcomes from the last clinical course at their respective institutions. Validation of the revised AssCE was established with high congruence between the factors in the AssCE and examined learning outcomes. The revised AssCE tool seems to meet its objective to be a validated assessment tool for use in clinical nursing education. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  3. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  4. Assessing quality of maternity care in Hungary: expert validation and testing of the mother-centered prenatal care (MCPC) survey instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubashkin, Nicholas; Szebik, Imre; Baji, Petra; Szántó, Zsuzsa; Susánszky, Éva; Vedam, Saraswathi

    2017-11-16

    Instruments to assess quality of maternity care in Central and Eastern European (CEE) region are scarce, despite reports of poor doctor-patient communication, non-evidence-based care, and informal cash payments. We validated and tested an online questionnaire to study maternity care experiences among Hungarian women. Following literature review, we collated validated items and scales from two previous English-language surveys and adapted them to the Hungarian context. An expert panel assessed items for clarity and relevance on a 4-point ordinal scale. We calculated item-level Content Validation Index (CVI) scores. We designed 9 new items concerning informal cash payments, as well as 7 new "model of care" categories based on mode of payment. The final questionnaire (N = 111 items) was tested in two samples of Hungarian women, representative (N = 600) and convenience (N = 657). We conducted bivariate analysis and thematic analysis of open-ended responses. Experts rated pre-existing English-language items as clear and relevant to Hungarian women's maternity care experiences with an average CVI for included questions of 0.97. Significant differences emerged across the model of care categories in terms of informal payments, informed consent practices, and women's perceptions of autonomy. Thematic analysis (N = 1015) of women's responses identified 13 priority areas of the maternity care experience, 9 of which were addressed by the questionnaire. We developed and validated a comprehensive questionnaire that can be used to evaluate respectful maternity care, evidence-based practice, and informal cash payments in CEE region and beyond.

  5. Institutionalizing Health Impact Assessment: A consultation with experts on the barriers and facilitators to implementing HIA in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linzalone, Nunzia; Ballarini, Adele; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Viliani, Francesca; Bianchi, Fabrizio

    2018-07-15

    A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is an evidence-based methodology that includes health promotion and protection goals in decision-making. HIA has been introduced and/or institutionalized to various extents in different countries. In order to promote HIA and preventive health assessments in Italy, a research methodology was followed to identify specific obstacles or facilitators. The experiences of various countries reported in the literature were analyzed in terms of facilitating or hindering the introduction and institutionalization of HIA. A consultation with the proponents of projects and plans in Italy was carried out with a multi-approach methodology in order to characterize the national context. A general implementation plan was drawn up from the international experiences. In Italy this is not yet in place. Specific areas of intervention need to be addressed, including: 1) data availability; 2) tools and methods; 3) engagement of stakeholders; 4) capacity building. The research suggests that the institutionalization of HIA in Italy rests on the government's commitment to providing specific legislation regarding HIA so that skills, intersectoral coordination and dedicated budgets can be built and maintained. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  7. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  8. Delphi consensus of an expert committee in oncogeriatrics regarding comprehensive geriatric assessment in seniors with cancer in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Garrido, Maria-Jose; Guillén-Ponce, Carmen; Blanco, Remei; Saldaña, Juana; Feliú, Jaime; Antonio, Maite; López-Mongil, Rosa; Ramos Cordero, Primitivo; Gironés, Regina

    2018-07-01

    The aim of this work was to reach a national consensus in Spain regarding the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) domains in older oncological patients and the CGA scales to be used as a foundation for widespread use. The Delphi method was implemented to attain consensus. Representatives of the panel were chosen from among the members of the Oncogeriatric Working Group of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (SEOM). Consensus was defined as ≥66.7% coincidence in responses and by the stability of said coincidence (changes ≤15% between rounds). The study was conducted between July and December 2016. Of the 17 people invited to participate, 16 agreed. The panel concluded by consensus that the following domains should be included in the CGA:(and the scales to evaluate them): functional (Barthel Index, Lawton-Brody scale, gait speed), cognitive (Pfeiffer questionnaire), nutritional (Mini Nutritional Assessment - MNA), psychological/mood (Yesavage scale), social-familial (Gijon scale), comorbidity (Charlson index), medications, and geriatric syndromes (urinary and/or fecal incontinence, low auditory and/or visual acuity, presence of falls, pressure sores, insomnia, and abuse). Also by consensus, the CGA should be administered to older patients with cancer for whom there is a subsequent therapeutic intent and who scored positive on a previous frailty-screening questionnaire. After 3 rounds, consensus was reached regarding CGA domains to be used in older patients with cancer, the scales to be administered for each of these domains, as well as the timeline to be followed during consultation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  10. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  11. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  12. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  13. Hippocampal volume change measurement: Quantitative assessment of the reproducibility of expert manual outlining and the automated methods FreeSurfer and FIRST

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, E.R.; de Jong, R.A.; Knol, D.L.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Cover, K.S.; Visser, P.J.; Barkhof, F.; Vrenken, H.

    2014-01-01

    Background: To measure hippocampal volume change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), expert manual delineation is often used because of its supposed accuracy. It has been suggested that expert outlining yields poorer reproducibility as compared to automated methods, but

  14. Final report of the cosmetic ingredient review expert panel on the safety assessment of Polyisobutene and Hydrogenated Polyisobutene as used in cosmetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    controls. Neither Polyisobutene nor Hydrogenated Polyisobutene were ocular irritants, nor were they dermal irritants or sensitizers. Polyisobutene was not comedogenic in a rabbit ear study. Polyisobutene did not induce transformation in the Syrian hamster embryo (SHE) cell transformation assay, but did enhance 3-methylcholanthrene-induced transformation of C3H/10T1/2 cells. In a carcinogenicity study in mice, Polyisobutene was not carcinogenic, nor did it promote the carcinogenicity of 7,12-dimethylbenz(alpha)anthracene. Clinical patch tests uncovered no evidence of dermal irritation and repeat-insult patch tests with a product containing 4% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene or 1.44% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene found no reactions greater than slight erythema. These products also were not phototoxic or photoallergenic. The product containing 4% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene was not an ocular irritant in a clinical test. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel recognized that there are data gaps regarding use and concentration of these ingredients. However, the overall information available on the types of products in which these ingredients are used and at what concentrations indicate a pattern of use, which was considered by the Expert Panel in assessing safety. Although there is an absence of dermal absorption data for Polyisobutene and Hydrogenated Polyisobutene, the available octanol water partition coefficient data and the low solubility in water suggest very slow absorption, so additional data are not needed. Gastrointestinal absorption is also not a major concern due to the low solubility of these chemicals. Although one in vitro study did report that Polyisobutene did promote cellular transformation, a mouse study did not find evidence of tumor promotion. Because lifetime exposure studies using rats and dogs exposed to Polybutene failed to demonstrate any carcinogenic or tumor promotion effect, and a three-generation reproductive/developmental toxicity study produced

  15. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  16. Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

    2011-06-28

    Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our

  17. Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

  18. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Survey and assessment of conventional software verification and validation methods. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirsky, S.M.; Groundwater, E.H.; Hayes, J.E.; Miller, L.A. [Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1995-03-01

    By means of a literature survey, a comprehensive set of methods was identified for the verification and validation of conventional software. The 153 methods so identified were classified according to their appropriateness for various phases of a developmental life-cycle -- requirements, design, and implementation; the last category was subdivided into two, static testing and dynamic testing methods. The methods were then characterized in terms of eight rating factors, four concerning ease-of-use of the methods and four concerning the methods` power to detect defects. Based on these factors, two measurements were developed to permit quantitative comparisons among methods, a Cost-Benefit metric and an Effectiveness Metric. The Effectiveness Metric was further refined to provide three different estimates for each method, depending on three classes of needed stringency of V&V (determined by ratings of a system`s complexity and required-integrity). Methods were then rank-ordered for each of the three classes by terms of their overall cost-benefits and effectiveness. The applicability was then assessed of each for the identified components of knowledge-based and expert systems, as well as the system as a whole.

  19. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Survey and assessment of conventional software verification and validation methods. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirsky, S.M.; Groundwater, E.H.; Hayes, J.E.; Miller, L.A.

    1995-03-01

    By means of a literature survey, a comprehensive set of methods was identified for the verification and validation of conventional software. The 153 methods so identified were classified according to their appropriateness for various phases of a developmental life-cycle -- requirements, design, and implementation; the last category was subdivided into two, static testing and dynamic testing methods. The methods were then characterized in terms of eight rating factors, four concerning ease-of-use of the methods and four concerning the methods' power to detect defects. Based on these factors, two measurements were developed to permit quantitative comparisons among methods, a Cost-Benefit metric and an Effectiveness Metric. The Effectiveness Metric was further refined to provide three different estimates for each method, depending on three classes of needed stringency of V ampersand V (determined by ratings of a system's complexity and required-integrity). Methods were then rank-ordered for each of the three classes by terms of their overall cost-benefits and effectiveness. The applicability was then assessed of each for the identified components of knowledge-based and expert systems, as well as the system as a whole

  20. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  1. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  2. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  3. New criteria for inflammatory back pain in patients with chronic back pain: a real patient exercise by experts from the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieper, J; van der Heijde, D; Landewé, R; Brandt, J; Burgos-Vagas, R; Collantes-Estevez, E; Dijkmans, B; Dougados, M; Khan, M A; Leirisalo-Repo, M; van der Linden, S; Maksymowych, W P; Mielants, H; Olivieri, I; Rudwaleit, M

    2009-06-01

    Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an important clinical symptom in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA), and relevant for classification and diagnosis. In the present report, a new approach for the development of IBP classification criteria is discussed. Rheumatologists (n = 13) who are experts in SpA took part in a 2-day international workshop to investigate 20 patients with back pain and possible SpA. Each expert documented the presence/absence of clinical parameters typical for IBP, and judged whether IBP was considered present or absent based on the received information. This expert judgement was used as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis in order to identify those individual IBP parameters that contributed best to a diagnosis of IBP. The new set of IBP criteria was validated in a separate cohort of patients (n = 648). Five parameters best explained IBP according to the experts. These were: (1) improvement with exercise (odds ratio (OR) 23.1); (2) pain at night (OR 20.4); (3) insidious onset (OR 12.7); (4) age at onset validation cohort. This new approach with real patients defines a set of IBP definition criteria using overall expert judgement on IBP as the gold standard. The IBP experts' criteria are robust, easy to apply and have good face validity.

  4. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  5. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  6. An assessment of boric acid and borax using the IEHR Evaluative Process for Assessing Human Developmental and Reproductive Toxicity of Agents. Expert Scientific Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J A

    1997-01-01

    drinking water not exceed 0.6 mg B/L [0.06 mM B] over a lifetime of exposure. Dietary exposure to boron for an adult typically ranges from ranges from 0.25 to 3.1 mg B/d with an average of 1.5 mg B/d. The high end of the exposure range, 3.1 mg B/d, was selected by the Expert Committee as best estimate of exposure. It should be noted that a diet high in fruits, vegetables, grains, legumes, and other food stuffs with high boron contents may lead to daily exposures as high as 10 mg B/d from diet alone. Some body building supplements contain boron at levels ranging from 1.5 to 10 mg B, with a median of 4 mg B. Use of the supplements containing the median concentration of boron could equal the daily intake an individual receives from diet and drinking water combined. Adults in the U.S. at the high end of the food exposure range may typically ingest up to 3.5 mg B/d, or a daily dose of 0.005 mmol B/kg b.wt., through exposure from diet (3.1 mg B/d) and drinking water (0.4 mg B/d). Individuals who also use body-building supplements may have a total daily boron intake of 7.5 mg B resulting in a daily dose of 0.01 mmol B/kg b.wt./d. Occupational exposure to boron is mainly through inhalation of borate containing dust during mining and manufacturing processes. Current occupational exposures to boron are reported to result in a daily dose of < 0.0001 to 0.2 mmol B/kg b.wt./d. Current U.S. OSHA permissible exposure limit (PEL) for sodium tetraborates is 10 mg/m3, and the California Occupational Safety and Health Administration PEL is 5 mg/m3. An exposure of 5 mg B/m3 translates to approximately 0.01 mmol B/kg b.wt./d that, coincidentally, is the same as exposure levels associated with combined municipal drinking water, diet, and body building supplement consumption. Infants may receive exposures to boric acid when it is used as a household insecticide for cockroach control. Exposure from boric acid-containing cosmetic and personal care products applie

  7. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

  8. International Expert Review of Sr-Can: Safety Assessment Methodology - External review contribution in support of SSI's and SKI's review of SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagar, Budhi; Egan, Michael; Roehlig, Klaus-Juergen; Chapman, Neil; Wilmot, Roger

    2008-03-01

    In 2006, SKB published a safety assessment (SR-Can) as part of its work to support a licence application for the construction of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. The purposes of the SR-Can project were stated in the main project report to be: 1. To make a first assessment of the safety of potential KBS-3 repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar to dispose of canisters as specified in the application for the encapsulation plant. 2. To provide feedback to design development, to SKB's research and development (R and D) programme, to further site investigations and to future safety assessments. 3. To foster a dialogue with the authorities that oversee SKB's activities, i.e. the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, SSI, regarding interpretation of applicable regulations, as a preparation for the SR-Site project. To help inform their review of SKB's proposed approach to development of the longterm safety case, the authorities appointed three international expert review teams to carry out a review of SKB's SR-Can safety assessment report. Comments from one of these teams - the Safety Assessment Methodology (SAM) review team - are presented in this document. The SAM review team's scope of work included an examination of SKB's documentation of the assessment ('Long-term safety for KBS-3 Repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar - a first evaluation' and several supporting reports) and hearings with SKB staff and contractors, held in March 2007. As directed by SKI and SSI, the SAM review team focused on methodological aspects and sought to determine whether SKB's proposed safety assessment methodology is likely to be suitable for use in the future SR-Site and to assess its consistency with the Swedish regulatory framework. No specific evaluation of long-term safety or site acceptability was undertaken by any of the review teams. SKI and SSI's Terms of Reference for the SAM review team requested that consideration be given

  9. Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert's View on Welfare Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

    2017-01-01

    are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...... between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due...

  10. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  11. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  12. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  13. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  14. Development and application of an innovative expert decision support system to manage sediments and to assess environmental risk in freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnino, Alessandro; Bo, Tiziano; Copetta, Andrea; Fenoglio, Stefano; Oliveri, Caterina; Bencivenga, Mauro; Felli, Angelo; Viarengo, Aldo

    2013-10-01

    With the aim of supporting decision makers to manage contamination in freshwater environments, an innovative expert decision support system (EDSS) was developed. The EDSS was applied in a sediment quality assessment along the Bormida river (NW, Italy) which has been heavily contaminated by an upstream industrial site for more than a century. Sampling sites were classified by means of comparing chemical concentrations with effect-based target values (threshold and probable effect concentrations). The level of each contaminant and the combined toxic pressure were used to rank sites into three categories: (i) uncontaminated (8 sites), (ii) mildly contaminated (4) and (iii) heavily contaminated (19). In heavily contaminated sediments, an environmental risk index (EnvRI) was determined by means of integrating chemical data with ecotoxicological and ecological parameters (triad approach). In addition a sediment risk index (SedRI) was computed from combining chemical and ecotoxicological data. Eight sites exhibited EnvRI values ≥0.25, the safety threshold level (range of EnvRI values: 0.14-0.31) whereas SedRI exceeded the safety threshold level at 6 sites (range of SedRI values: 0.16-0.36). At sites classified as mildly contaminated, sublethal biomarkers were integrated with chemical data into a biological vulnerability index (BVI), which exceeded the safety threshold level at one site (BVI value: 0.28). Finally, potential human risk was assessed in selected stations (11 sites) by integrating genotoxicity biomarkers (GTI index falling in the range 0.00-0.53). General conclusions drawn from the EDSS data include: (i) in sites classified as heavily contaminated, only a few exhibited some significant, yet limited, effects on biodiversity; (ii) restrictions in re-using sediments from heavily contaminated sites found little support in ecotoxicological data; (iii) in the majority of the sites classified as mildly contaminated, tested organisms exhibited low response levels

  15. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

  16. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  17. An expert panel approach to assessing potential effects of bull trout reintroduction on federally listed salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot; Chris S. Allen; Steve Morey; Dan Shively; Rollie. White

    2012-01-01

    The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus is an apex predator in native fish communities in the western USA and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Restoration of this species has raised concerns over its potential predatory impacts on native fish fauna. We held a five-person expert panel to help determine potential...

  18. New criteria for inflammatory back pain in patients with chronic back pain: a real patient exercise by experts from the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieper, J.; van der Heijde, D.; Landewé, R.; Brandt, J.; Burgos-Vagas, R.; Collantes-Estevez, E.; Dijkmans, B.; Dougados, M.; Khan, M. A.; Leirisalo-Repo, M.; van der Linden, S.; Maksymowych, W. P.; Mielants, H.; Olivieri, I.; Rudwaleit, M.

    2009-01-01

    Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an important clinical symptom in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA), and relevant for classification and diagnosis. In the present report, a new approach for the development of IBP classification criteria is discussed. Rheumatologists (n = 13) who are experts

  19. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  20. SLIM-MAUD: an approach to assessing human error probabilities using structured expert judgment. Volume II. Detailed analysis of the technical issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Humphreys, P.; Rosa, E.A.; Kirwan, B.; Rea, K.

    1984-07-01

    This two-volume report presents the procedures and analyses performed in developing an approach for structuring expert judgments to estimate human error probabilities. Volume I presents an overview of work performed in developing the approach: SLIM-MAUD (Success Likelihood Index Methodology, implemented through the use of an interactive computer program called MAUD-Multi-Attribute Utility Decomposition). Volume II provides a more detailed analysis of the technical issues underlying the approach

  1. The application of the Contingent Valuation method towards the assessment of the impacts emerged from the March 2006 floods in the Evros River. An experts-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markantonis, V.; Bithas, K.

    2009-04-01

    In March 2006 Greece was struck by a severe flooding, which caused significant damages in the Prefecture of Evros, on the Eastern border of Greece. 250 million m² of farmland was flooded causing severe damages to agriculture, transport and water supply networks. Total direct damages are estimated at € 372 million. The negative effect on economic activity caused by the floods, considered the worst over the last 50 years, took place in an area that had already been severely affected by floods in 2005. Apart from the direct damages critical were also the indirect impacts on the environmental and the social level. The need for economic analysis concerning the design and implementation of efficient flood management policies is well emphasized in the natural hazards' policies. Within this framework, the present paper is analyzing the application of stated preferences valuation techniques for the assessment of the damages caused in the Prefecture of Evros by the severe floods of March 2006. The objective of this paper is to define the role of economic valuation techniques in assisting the design of efficient and sustainable policies for flood management. More specific, the Contingent Valuation (CV) method is applied in order to valuate the impacts of the March 2006 floods, including the environmental impacts as far as concerns the soil, the biodiversity and the aesthetic environment of the flooded areas. The paper begins with a discussion of the theoretical economic framework, and particularly, the contingent valuation method framework that can be used to evaluate flood impacts. Understanding public preferences for complex environmental policy changes, such as flood impacts, is a preeminent challenge for environmental economists and other social scientists. Information issues are central to the design and application of the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method for valuing environmental goods. While content is under the control of the analyst, how this

  2. Return on experience by the Marcoule-Gard CLI in the management of a post-accident situation following a nuclear or radiological event; Retour d'experience de la CLI Marcoule-Gard dans la gestion d'une situation post-accidentelle, faisant suite a un evenement nucleaire ou radiologique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charre, J.P. [Vice-President de la CLI Marcoule-Gard et Maire d' Orsan, Mairie - 30200 Orsan (France)

    2010-07-01

    After having recalled the legal framework which strengthens the roles and responsibilities of local authorities with respect to natural or technological risks, this short report describes the activity of the Marcoule-Gard CLI (Commission locale d'information, information local commission) in the management of a post-accident situation during a nuclear crisis. This commission notably participates to several work groups, and to some exercises (two examples - a simulated crisis and a real one - are briefly reported and analyzed)

  3. Mineral insulated cables for post accident service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMillin, P.L.; Winkler, M.E.

    1986-01-01

    The regulatory requirement to measure the gamma radiation levels during accident conditions inside a reactor containment building is discussed. The development of a mineral-insulated cable and connector system to accurately transmit this measurement is described and a model of the response is developed

  4. Lessons from Chernobyl post-accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, T.

    2012-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident has shown that the long-term management of its consequences is not straightforward. The management of the consequences has revealed the complexity of the situation to deal with. The long-term contamination of the environment has affected all the dimensions of the daily life of the inhabitants living in affected territories: health, environment, social life, education, work, distribution of foodstuffs and commodities... The experience from the Chernobyl accident shows 4 key issues that may be beneficial for the populations living in territories affected by the Fukushima accident: 1) the direct involvement of the inhabitants in their own protection, 2) the radiation monitoring system and health surveillance at the local level, 3) to develop a practical radiation protection culture among the population, and 4) the setting up of economic measures to favour the local development. (A.C.)

  5. Post Accident Procedures for Chemicals and Propellants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    Acoustic Emission AFB - Air Force Base AFCRL - Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories BE - AAR Bureau of Explosives BLEVE - Boiling Liquid Expanding...rupture or a BLEVE . Second, hazardous material fires were extinguished when possible with either the use of foam or water. In some cases, the car was...First Aid Kits Breathing Apparatus Mine Safety Pittsburgh, PA Appliances ,- (MSA) 5-38 .... .°.*. ’ • .*. . ° ,*. I

  6. Post Accident Procedures for Chemicals and Propellants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    6-13 8-1 LOCOMOTIVE CRANE .................................... 8-8 8-2 CRAWLER CRANE ...................................... 8-8 8-3 AUTOMOTIVE ...cause a 3evere upset )f a publicly-owned treatment works (POTW) by destroying active bacteria. 4.3.6 tccident at Houston, Texas,(7 2 ) Train...or gouges ought to be examined and the radius of curvature estimated. Dents with scores or gouges and those crossing tank seam welds are considered

  7. Post-accident heat removal ''information exchange''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plein, H.G.; Carlson, G.A.

    1975-01-01

    The in-core molten pool experiments are designed to produce a pool of fission heated temperature and flow patterns of such pools, and evaluate the barrier melt-through potential of the molten UO 2 . The first experiments, to be conducted this fiscal year in the Annular Core Pulse Reactor, will be uncomplicated and multiply-contained to prove containment design and to provide initial information on fission heated molten pool characteristics. Concurrent with the in-core experiments, high temperature ultrasonic techniques are being developed to measure UO 2 temperatures up to and above the melting point for use in later more definitive experiments scheduled for FY77

  8. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

  9. Waste disposal experts meet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1959-01-15

    Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

  10. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  11. Expert Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

  12. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  13. Expert Cold Structure Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  14. Assigning exposure to pesticides and solvents from self-reports collected by a computer assisted personal interview and expert assessment of job codes: the UK Adult Brain Tumour Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepworth, S J; Bolton, A; Parslow, R C; van Tongeren, M; Muir, K R; McKinney, P A

    2006-04-01

    To compare assignment of occupational pesticide and solvent exposure using self-reported data collected by a computer assisted personal interview (CAPI) with exposure based on expert assessment of job codes. To discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using a CAPI to collect individual occupational exposure data. Between 2001 and 2004, 1495 participants were interviewed using a CAPI for a case-control study of adult brain tumours and acoustic neuromas. Two types of occupational data were collected: (1) a full history, including job title from which a job code was assigned from the Standard Occupational Classification; and (2) specific details on pesticide and solvent exposure reported by participants. Study members' experiences of using the CAPI were recorded and advantages and disadvantages summarised. Of 7192 jobs recorded, the prevalence of self-reported exposure was 1.3% for pesticides and 11.5% for solvents. Comparing this with exposure expertly assessed from job titles showed 53.6% and 45.8% concordance for pesticides and solvents respectively. Advantages of the CAPI include no data entry stage, automatic input validation, and a reduction in interviewer bias. Disadvantages include an adverse effect on study implementation as a consequence of resources required for programming and difficulties encountered with data management prior to analysis. Different methods of exposure assessment derive different exposure levels for pesticide and solvent exposure at work. Agreement between self-reported and expert assessment of exposure was greater for pesticides compared to solvents. The advantages of using a CAPI for the collection of complex data outweigh the disadvantages for interviewers and data quality but using such a method requires extra resources at the study outset.

  15. Assigning exposure to pesticides and solvents from self‐reports collected by a computer assisted personal interview and expert assessment of job codes: the UK Adult Brain Tumour Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hepworth, S J; Bolton, A; Parslow, R C; van Tongeren, M; Muir, K R; McKinney, P A

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To compare assignment of occupational pesticide and solvent exposure using self‐reported data collected by a computer assisted personal interview (CAPI) with exposure based on expert assessment of job codes. To discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using a CAPI to collect individual occupational exposure data. Methods Between 2001 and 2004, 1495 participants were interviewed using a CAPI for a case‐control study of adult brain tumours and acoustic neuromas. Two types of occupational data were collected: (1) a full history, including job title from which a job code was assigned from the Standard Occupational Classification; and (2) specific details on pesticide and solvent exposure reported by participants. Study members' experiences of using the CAPI were recorded and advantages and disadvantages summarised. Results Of 7192 jobs recorded, the prevalence of self‐reported exposure was 1.3% for pesticides and 11.5% for solvents. Comparing this with exposure expertly assessed from job titles showed 53.6% and 45.8% concordance for pesticides and solvents respectively. Advantages of the CAPI include no data entry stage, automatic input validation, and a reduction in interviewer bias. Disadvantages include an adverse effect on study implementation as a consequence of resources required for programming and difficulties encountered with data management prior to analysis. Conclusions Different methods of exposure assessment derive different exposure levels for pesticide and solvent exposure at work. Agreement between self‐reported and expert assessment of exposure was greater for pesticides compared to solvents. The advantages of using a CAPI for the collection of complex data outweigh the disadvantages for interviewers and data quality but using such a method requires extra resources at the study outset. PMID:16556747

  16. Report of the experts' mission to review thermal hydraulic and structural analyses for PTS assessment of Kozloduy NPP units 1-4 reactor pressure vessels, Sofia, Bulgaria 3-7 April 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Based upon a request of the Government of Bulgaria and in order to assist its Regulatory Body, an experts' mission was carried out to Sofia and Kozloduy, 21-25 November 1994 within the framework of the IAEA TC Project BUL/9/013-05 and of the IAEA Extrabudgetary Programme on the Safety of the WWER NPPs. The mission also specified the technical content of further assistance by the IAEA. With respect to the findings and recommendations made in November 1994, WWER-SC-109, a follow-up expert's mission was carried out to Sofia, Bulgaria, April 3-7, 1995. The objective of the mission was to review the selection of transients, thermal hydraulic, stress and fracture mechanics analyses for reactor pressure vessel integrity assessment of Kozloduy unit 1-4. In addition, an update on the activities completed, underway and planned related to unit 1 reactor pressure vessel embrittlement was presented and discussed. The review was carried out by 4 international experts from Finland, France, Russia and IAEA in co-operation with the Bulgarian regulatory body, plant, Energoproject Sofia and Institute of Metals staff. The mission was conducted out within the frame of the IAEA TC Project BUL/9/013-05 and of the IAEA Extrabudgetary Programme on the Safety of the WWER NPPs. 18 refs

  17. Assessment of the health of the salvaging personnel at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station: the findings of the Russian Federal Interministerial Expert Committee for 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrisanfov, S.A.

    2000-01-01

    Disease incidence and mortality causes in liquidators of the Chernobyl accident are analysed using the results of activities in 1999 of Russian Joint Expert Council on identification of the causal relationship of diseases, disablement and death of persons exposed to radiation. Blood circulation system is shown to be the most vulnerable in liquidators. At that, the discirculatory encephalopathy mainly develops in case of prevalence of brain vascular system lesion, while the cardiac ischemia in case of cardiovascular lesions. Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of liquidators death. Psychoneurological pathology is also wide spread in this contingent. When considering features of the oncopathology in liquidators the extraordinary high neoplasm incidence in urinary system, blood system is marked as well as leukoses and thyroid cancer [ru

  18. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  19. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  20. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  1. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  2. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  3. An expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRO's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  4. Expert system for USNRC emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRC's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

  5. Application of SLIM-MAUD: A test of an interactive computer-based method for organizing expert assessment of human performance and reliability: Volume 2, Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spettell, C.M.; Rosa, E.A.; Humphreys, P.C.; Embrey, D.E.

    1986-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been conducting a multiyear research program to investigate different methods for using expert judgments to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plants. One of the methods investigated, derived from multi-attribute utility theory, is the Success Likelihood Index Methodolocy implemented through Multi-Attribute Utility Decomposition (SLIM-MAUD). This report describes a systematic test application of the SLIM-MAUD methodology. The test application is evaluated on the basis of three criteria: practicality, acceptability, and usefulness. Volume I of this report represents an overview of SLIM-MAUD, describes the procedures followed in the test application, and provides a summary of the results obtained. Volume II consists of technical appendices to support in detail the materials contained in Volume I, and the users' package of explicit procedures to be followed in implementing SLIM-MAUD. The results obtained in the test application provide support for the application of SLIM-MAUD to a wide variety of applications requiring estimates of human errors

  6. Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

    2003-01-01

    understanding the models help in the integration of the knowledge produced by different disciplines and in the reconciliation of the requirements of different parties. They also improve the interaction between the domain experts and the experts of safety assessment. Better awareness of the knowledge-related dependencies enhance the unity of the experts' safety conceptions and contributes to more unified communicating practices in the organization. On the basis of its holistic and integrating character, the safety assessment seems to provide a common perspective to the modelling of the work processes. Using it as a tool for understanding the significance of the safety-critical aspects of work will probably make it more accessible for the domain experts. The safety assessment aims at results, which are expected to be transdisciplinary by nature. It can be assumed, that the common conceptualization and modelling with the help of it facilitate the development from multidisciplinarity to true transdisciplinarity in the expert work

  7. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  8. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  9. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  10. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  11. Consensus on quality indicators to assess the organisation of palliative cancer and dementia care applicable across national healthcare systems and selected by international experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Riet Paap, Jasper; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra; Dröes, Rose-Marie; Radbruch, Lukas; Vissers, Kris; Engels, Yvonne

    2014-09-17

    Large numbers of vulnerable patients are in need of palliative cancer and dementia care. However, a wide gap exists between the knowledge of best practices in palliative care and their use in everyday clinical practice. As part of a European policy improvement program, quality indicators (QIs) have been developed to monitor and improve the organisation of palliative care for patients with cancer and those with dementia in various settings in different European countries. A multidisciplinary, international panel of professionals participated in a modified RAND Delphi procedure to compose a set of palliative care QIs based on existing sets of QIs on the organisation of palliative care. Panellists participated in three written rounds, one feedback round and one meeting. The panel's median votes were used to identify the final set of QIs. The Delphi procedure resulted in 23 useful QIs. These QIs represent key elements of the organisation of good clinical practice, such as the availability of palliative care teams, the availability of special facilities to provide palliative care for patients and their relatives, and the presence of educational interventions for professionals. The final set also includes QIs that are related to the process of palliative care, such as documentation of pain and other symptoms, communication with patients in need of palliative care and their relatives, and end-of-life decisions. International experts selected a set of 23 QIs for the organisation of palliative care. Although we particularly focused on the organisation of cancer and dementia palliative care, most QIs are generic and are applicable for other types of diseases as well.

  12. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  13. Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

  14. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

    2018-02-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

  15. Inter-rater variability in motor function assessment in Parkinson's disease between experts in movement disorders and nurses specialising in PD management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Deus Fonticoba, T; Santos García, D; Macías Arribí, M

    2017-05-23

    In clinical practice, assessing patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) is a complex, time-consuming task. Our purpose is to provide a rigorous and objective evaluation of how motor function in PD patients is assessed by neurologists specialising in movement disorders, on the one hand, and by nurses specialising in PD management, on the other. We conducted an observational, cross-sectional, single-centre study of 50 patients with PD (52% men; mean age: 64.7 ± 8.7 years) who were assessed between 5 January 2016 and 20 July 2016. A neurologist and a nurse evaluated motor function in the early morning hours using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) parts III and IV and Hoehn & Yahr (H&Y) scale. Tests were administered in the same PD periods (in 48 patients during the 'off' time and in 2 patients during the 'on' time). Inter-rater variability was estimated with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Forty-nine patients (98%) were classified in the same H&Y stage by both raters. Assessment times were similar for both raters. ICC for UPDRS-IV and UPDRS-III total scores were 0.955 (Pde Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Inside the black box: Starting to uncover the underlying decision rules used in a one-by-one expert assessment of occupational exposure in case-control studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wheeler, D.C.; Burstyn, I.; Vermeulen, R.; Yu, K.; Shortreed, S.M.; Pronk, A.; Stewart, P.A.; Colt, J.S.; Baris, D.; Karagas, M.R.; Schwenn, M.; Johnson, A.; Silverman, D.T.; Friesen, M.C.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Evaluating occupational exposures in population-based case-control studies often requires exposure assessors to review each study participant's reported occupational information job-by-job to derive exposure estimates. Although such assessments likely have underlying decision rules, they

  17. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new metho...

  18. Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgement, Volume II: Results for the Massachusetts Bays Program (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology fo...

  19. When experts disagree

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olde, de Evelien M.; Moller, Henrik; Marchand, Fleur; McDowell, Richard W.; MacLeod, Catriona J.; Sautier, Marion; Halloy, Stephan; Barber, Andrew; Benge, Jayson; Bockstaller, Christian; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de Imke J.M.; Legun, Katharine A.; Quellec, Le Isabelle; Merfield, Charles; Oudshoorn, Frank W.; Reid, John; Schader, Christian; Szymanski, Erika; Sørensen, Claus A.G.; Whitehead, Jay; Manhire, Jon

    2017-01-01

    Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness

  20. Book Review: Radiological Conditions in the Dnieper River Basin: Assessment by an International Expert Team and Recommendations for an Action Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, Bruce A.

    2007-01-01

    This article is a book review of a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency that was prepared by a team of scientists from Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine as an assessment of radiological contamination of the Dnieper River, which flows through these three countries. The topics covered begin with radioactive sources (actual and potential) including areas affected by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, nuclear power plants along the river and its tributaries, uranium mining and ore processing, radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and non-power sources, such as medicine, industry, and research. The report continues with an assessment of human exposures to radiation from these sources. An additional area of consideration is radiological 'hot spots' in the region. The report finishes with conclusions and recommendations to the regional governments for a strategic action plan and individual government national plans.

  1. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  2. Source term assessment, containment atmosphere control systems, and accident consequences. Report to CSNI by an OECD/NEA Group of experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    CSNI Report 135 summarizes the results of the work performed by CSNI's Principal Working Group No. 4 on the Source Term and Environmental Consequences (PWG4) during the period extending from 1983 to 1986. This document contains the latest information on some important topics relating to source terms, accident consequence assessment, and containment atmospheric control systems. It consists of five parts: (1) a Foreword and Executive Summary prepared by PWG4's Chairman; (2) a Report on the Technical Status of the Source Term; (3) a Report on the Technical Status of Filtration and Containment Atmosphere Control Systems for Nuclear Reactors in the Event of a Severe Accident; (4) a Report on the Technical Status of Reactor Accident Consequence Assessment; (5) a list of members of PWG4

  3. SERDP and ESTCP Expert Panel Workshop on Research and Development Needs for Understanding and Assessing the Bioavailability of Contaminants in Soils and Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    compartments contributing to fish tissue uptake. Develop tools to evaluate contaminant source apportionment into fish and higher trophic levels for use in... apportionment into risk assessments. 7.1.1.2 Improved Understanding of Metal Bioavailability in Sediments. The bioavailability of metals from...Bryan, G.W. and Langston, W.J., 1992. Bioavailability, Accumulation and Effects of Heavy Metals in Sediments with Special Reference to United

  4. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  5. Development of a seismic source model for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 4 (EG1d)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiemer, S.; Garcia-Fernandez, M.; Burg, J.-P.

    2009-01-01

    We present a seismogenic source model for site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the sites of Swiss nuclear power plants. Our model is one of four developed in the framework of the PEGASOS project; it contains a logic tree with nine levels of decision-making. The two primary sources of input used in the areal zonation developed by us are the historical and instrumental seismicity record and large-scale geological/rheological units. From this, we develop a zonation of six macro zones, refined in a series of seven decision steps up to a maximum of 13 zones. Within zones, activity rates are either assumed homogeneous or smoothed using a Gaussian kernel with width of 5 or 15 km. To estimate recurrence rate, we assume a double truncated Gutenberg-Richter law, and consider five models of recurrence parameters with different degrees of freedom. Models are weighted in the logic tree using a weighted Akaike score. The maximum magnitude is estimated following the EPRI approach. We perform extensive sensitivity analyses in rate and hazard space in order to assess the role of de-clustering, the completeness model, quarry contamination, border properties, stationarity, regional b-value and magnitude-dependent hypocentral depth. (author)

  6. Development of a seismic source model for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 4 (EG1d)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiemer, S. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Garcia-Fernandez, M. [Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Museum of Natural History, Dept. of Volcanology and Geophysics, Madrid (Spain); Burg, J.-P. [Institute of Geology, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-05-15

    We present a seismogenic source model for site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the sites of Swiss nuclear power plants. Our model is one of four developed in the framework of the PEGASOS project; it contains a logic tree with nine levels of decision-making. The two primary sources of input used in the areal zonation developed by us are the historical and instrumental seismicity record and large-scale geological/rheological units. From this, we develop a zonation of six macro zones, refined in a series of seven decision steps up to a maximum of 13 zones. Within zones, activity rates are either assumed homogeneous or smoothed using a Gaussian kernel with width of 5 or 15 km. To estimate recurrence rate, we assume a double truncated Gutenberg-Richter law, and consider five models of recurrence parameters with different degrees of freedom. Models are weighted in the logic tree using a weighted Akaike score. The maximum magnitude is estimated following the EPRI approach. We perform extensive sensitivity analyses in rate and hazard space in order to assess the role of de-clustering, the completeness model, quarry contamination, border properties, stationarity, regional b-value and magnitude-dependent hypocentral depth. (author)

  7. The First Expert CAI System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  8. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  10. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  11. Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

    2018-04-01

    We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

  12. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  13. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  14. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  15. Expert judgement combination using moment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wisse, Bram; Bedford, Tim; Quigley, John

    2008-01-01

    Moment methods have been employed in decision analysis, partly to avoid the computational burden that decision models involving continuous probability distributions can suffer from. In the Bayes linear (BL) methodology prior judgements about uncertain quantities are specified using expectation (rather than probability) as the fundamental notion. BL provides a strong foundation for moment methods, rooted in work of De Finetti and Goldstein. The main objective of this paper is to discuss in what way expert assessments of moments can be combined, in a non-Bayesian way, to construct a prior assessment. We show that the linear pool can be justified in an analogous but technically different way to linear pools for probability assessments, and that this linear pool has a very convenient property: a linear pool of experts' assessments of moments is coherent if each of the experts has given coherent assessments. To determine the weights of the linear pool we give a method of performance based weighting analogous to Cooke's classical model and explore its properties. Finally, we compare its performance with the classical model on data gathered in applications of the classical model

  16. Model of critical diagnostic reasoning: achieving expert clinician performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harjai, Prashant Kumar; Tiwari, Ruby

    2009-01-01

    Diagnostic reasoning refers to the analytical processes used to determine patient health problems. While the education curriculum and health care system focus on training nurse clinicians to accurately recognize and rescue clinical situations, assessments of non-expert nurses have yielded less than satisfactory data on diagnostic competency. The contrast between the expert and non-expert nurse clinician raises the important question of how differences in thinking may contribute to a large divergence in accurate diagnostic reasoning. This article recognizes superior organization of one's knowledge base, using prototypes, and quick retrieval of pertinent information, using similarity recognition as two reasons for the expert's superior diagnostic performance. A model of critical diagnostic reasoning, using prototypes and similarity recognition, is proposed and elucidated using case studies. This model serves as a starting point toward bridging the gap between clinical data and accurate problem identification, verification, and management while providing a structure for a knowledge exchange between expert and non-expert clinicians.

  17. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  18. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  19. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  20. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  1. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  2. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance. PMID:29662261

  3. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Jaramillo, Patricio; Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-12-30

    The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance.

  4. Propulsive efficiency and non- expert swimmers performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Barbosa

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Propulsive efficiency is one of the most interesting issues for competitive swimming researchers, has it presents significant relationships with the swimmer’s biophysical behavior and his/her performance. Although propulsive efficiency is a variable that has been quite studied in elite swimmers, there is no research on this issue in young and non-expert swimmers. Thus, the aim of this study was to: (i estimate the propulsive efficiency on non-expert swimmers; (ii identify biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters that are associated with propulsive efficiency; (iii identify the association between the propulsive efficiency and swim performance. Twenty-eight non-expert swimmers participated on this study. It was assessed the propulsive efficiency, biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance. The propulsive efficiency of non-expert swimmers is lower than data reported in the literature to higher competitive levels swimmers and there are no significant differences between boys and girls. It was also noted that several biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance are associated with the propulsive efficiency.

  5. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  6. Safety Research Opportunities Post-Fukushima. Initial Report of the Senior Expert Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Won-Pil; Yang, Joon-Eon; Ball, Joanne; Glowa, Glenn; Bisconti, Giulia; Peko, Damian; Bolshov, Leonid; Burgazzi, Luciano; De Rosa, Felice; Conde, Jose M.; Cook, Gary; Evrard, Jean-Michel; Jacquemain, Didier; Funaki, Kentaro; Uematsu, Mari Marianne; Miyoshi, Katsumasa; Tatematsu, Atsushi; Hirano, Masashi; Hoshi, Harutaka; Kawaragi, Chie; Kobayashi, Youko; Sakamoto, Kazunobu; Journeau, Christophe; Kim, Han-Chul; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Sonnenkalb, Martin; Koganeya, Toshiyuki; White, Andrew; ); Lind, Terttaliisa; Zimmermann, Martin; Lindholm, Ilona; Castelo Lopez, Carlos; Nagase, Fumihisa; Washiya, Tadahiro; Oima, Hirofumi; Okada, Hiro; Richards, Stuart; West, Steven; Sandberg, Nils; Suzuki, Shunichi; Vitanza, Carlo; Yamanaka, Yasunori

    2017-02-01

    One of the imperatives following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station is for the nuclear science and industry communities to ensure that knowledge gaps in nuclear safety are identified and that research programs to address these gaps are being instituted. In recognition of broad international interest in additional information that could be gained from post-accident examinations related to Fukushima Daiichi, Japan recommended to the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) in June 2013 that a process be developed to identify and follow up on opportunities to address safety research gaps. Consequently, a Senior Expert Group (SEG) on Safety Research Opportunities post-Fukushima (SAREF) was formed. The members of the group are senior technical experts from technical support organisations, nuclear regulatory authorities and Japanese organisations responsible for planning and execution of Fukushima Daiichi decommissioning. The domain of interest for the group is activities that address safety research knowledge gaps and also the needs of Fukushima Daiichi decommissioning. SEG on SAREF identified areas where these two interests intersect or overlap, and activities that could be undertaken to generate information of common benefit. The group's output is documented in this report; Chapter 2 describes the current status of the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi NPS; Chapter 3 summarises safety research areas of common interest; Chapter 4 summarises the safety research activities recommended as short-term projects; Chapter 5 summarises those as long-term considerations; Chapter 6 supplies conclusions and recommendations. The appendix contains detailed information compiled by the SEG members on all safety research areas of interest

  7. Expert system for assessing risk and prevention of methane explosions in coal mines. Sistema experto para evaluacion del riesgo y la prevencion de explosiones de grisu en minas de carbon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-05-01

    The expert system described here was developed by members of AITEMIN as part of a project financed by Ocicarbon, the General Directorate of Mines and MINER Construction. The article begins by asking the question, 'What is an expert system '. 1 tab.

  8. A limited assessment of the ASEP human reliability analysis procedure using simulator examination results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gore, B.R.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Mitts, T.M.; Nicholson, W.L.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. In particular, the, ASEP post-accident, post-diagnosis, nominal HRA procedure is assessed within the context of an individual's performance of critical tasks on the simulator portion of requalification examinations administered to nuclear power plant operators. An assessment of the degree to which operator perforn:Lance during simulator examinations is an accurate reflection of operator performance during actual accident conditions was outside the scope of work for this project; therefore, no direct inference can be made from this report about such performance. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle. A total of 4071 critical tasks were identified, of which 45 had been failed. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. ASEP analyses were performed for a sample of 162 critical tasks selected randomly from the 4071, and the results were used to characterize the entire population. ASEP analyses were also performed for all of the 45 failed critical tasks. Two tests were performed to assess the bias of the ASEP HEPs compared with the data from the requalification examinations. The first compared the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and it found a statistically significant factor of two bias on the average

  9. An examination of expert systems activities within the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, J.A.; Washio, Takashi.

    1988-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of a detailed evaluation that the authors recently completed on expert systems applications within the nuclear industry. That evaluation examined the motivation for utilizing expert systems, identified the areas to which they were being applied, and provided an assessment of their utility. Listed here are some of the salient findings of that report. (1) Utilities are developing their own artificial intelligence tools rather than using commercial products. (2) Few expert systems are being developed for the express purpose of capturing human expertise. (3) A number of successful expert systems have been developed to assist in plant design, management, and maintenance scheduling. (4) Interactive diagnostic systems are being developed for the analysis of physical processes that vary slowly. (5) Real-time diagnostic expert systems are currently at the cutting edge of the technology. (6) Operator adviser and emergency response expert systems constitute ∼25% of the total. (7) Research on the use of expert systems for reactor control is quite active. (8) Too few quantitative evaluations of the benefits of expert systems to reactor operators have been performed. The operator's need is for timely, factual information on plant status. Hence, the true challenge to expert systems is real-time diagnostics

  10. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  11. [Evaluation of social medicine expert assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piechowiak, H

    1989-10-01

    There are only few scientific publications in literature on medical expertising in social medicine. Although this deficit may be explained by several facts, it cannot be justified. Evaluation is a systematic set of data collection and analysis activities undertaken to place social practice on a more rational basis, i.e. greater efficiency and justice. These aims also hold good for social medicine. Evaluation, however, is only the first step within a broader research programme for quality control and quality improvement efforts, which can be successfully performed only in cooperation with the social insurance institutions. Within their medical services these institutions should provide the organisational prerequisites to enable qualified scientific research in practical social medicine.

  12. Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

  13. A prototype nuclear emergency response decision making expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, C.; Shih, C.; Hong, M.; Yu, W.; Su, M.; Wang, S.

    1990-01-01

    A prototype of emergency response expert system developed for nuclear power plants, has been fulfilled by Institute of Nuclear Energy Research. Key elements that have been implemented for emergency response include radioactive material dispersion assessment, dynamic transportation evacuation assessment, and meteorological parametric forecasting. A network system consists of five 80386 Personal Computers (PCs) has been installed to perform the system functions above. A further project is still continuing to achieve a more complicated and fanciful computer aid integral emergency response expert system

  14. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  15. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  16. Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

  17. Expert system in PNC, 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubota, Koji

    1990-01-01

    The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

  18. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  19. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  20. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  1. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  2. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  3. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Volume 2, Survey and assessment of conventional software verification and validation methods Revision 1, Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, L.A.; Groundwater, E.H.; Hayes, J.E.; Mirsky, S.M.

    1995-05-01

    By means of a literature survey, a comprehensive set of methods was identified for the verification and validation of conventional software. The 153 methods so identified were classified according to their appropriateness for various phases of a developmental life-cycle -- requirements, design, and implementation; the last category was subdivided into two, static testing and dynamic testing methods. The methods were then characterized in terms of eight rating factors, four concerning ease-of-use of the methods and four concerning the methods' power to detect defects. Based on these factors, two measurements were developed to permit quantitative comparisons among methods, a Cost-Benefit Metric and an Effectiveness Metric. The Effectiveness Metric was further refined to provide three different estimates for each method, depending on three classes of needed stringency of V ampersand V (determined by ratings of a system's complexity and required-integrity). Methods were then rank-ordered for each of the three classes in terms of their overall cost-benefits and effectiveness. The applicability was then assessed of each method for the four identified components of knowledge-based and expert systems, as well as the system as a whole

  4. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  5. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  6. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

  7. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  8. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  9. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  10. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  11. An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

    2013-02-01

    Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

  12. Impact of Expert Teaching Quality on Novice Academic Performance in the Jigsaw Cooperative Learning Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Roland; Hänze, Martin

    2015-01-01

    We assessed the impact of expert students' instructional quality on the academic performance of novice students in 12th-grade physics classes organized in an expert model of cooperative learning ("jigsaw classroom"). The instructional quality of 129 expert students was measured by a newly developed rating system. As expected, when…

  13. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  14. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  15. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  16. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  17. Topics for application of expert systems for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trovato, S.A.; Aydin, F.

    1992-01-01

    Expert systems are an innovative form of computer software which offer to enhance productivity and improve operations of nuclear power plants. A survey and assessment of opportunities for application of this technology at Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc.'s (Con Edison) Indian Point 2 nuclear power plant was conducted. Eleven topics for expert systems are discussed in this paper. 1 ref., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  18. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  19. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.

  20. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  1. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  2. Expert incentives: cure versus prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jaegher, K.

    This paper distinguishes between two scenarios for the expert-client encounter. In the cure scenario, the client does not know whether a loss can be recovered. In the prevention scenario, the client faces a threat but does not know whether this threat is real enough to justify preventive action. The

  3. The role of the expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeesters, P.

    1998-01-01

    The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

  4. International Expert Review of Sr-Can: Safety Assessment Methodology - External review contribution in support of SSI's and SKI's review of SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagar, Budhi (Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (US)); Egan, Michael (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (GB)); Roehlig, Klaus-Juergen (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (DE)); Chapman, Neil (Independent Consultant (XX)); Wilmot, Roger (Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (GB))

    2008-03-15

    In 2006, SKB published a safety assessment (SR-Can) as part of its work to support a licence application for the construction of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. The purposes of the SR-Can project were stated in the main project report to be: 1. To make a first assessment of the safety of potential KBS-3 repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar to dispose of canisters as specified in the application for the encapsulation plant. 2. To provide feedback to design development, to SKB's research and development (R and D) programme, to further site investigations and to future safety assessments. 3. To foster a dialogue with the authorities that oversee SKB's activities, i.e. the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, SSI, regarding interpretation of applicable regulations, as a preparation for the SR-Site project. To help inform their review of SKB's proposed approach to development of the longterm safety case, the authorities appointed three international expert review teams to carry out a review of SKB's SR-Can safety assessment report. Comments from one of these teams - the Safety Assessment Methodology (SAM) review team - are presented in this document. The SAM review team's scope of work included an examination of SKB's documentation of the assessment ('Long-term safety for KBS-3 Repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar - a first evaluation' and several supporting reports) and hearings with SKB staff and contractors, held in March 2007. As directed by SKI and SSI, the SAM review team focused on methodological aspects and sought to determine whether SKB's proposed safety assessment methodology is likely to be suitable for use in the future SR-Site and to assess its consistency with the Swedish regulatory framework. No specific evaluation of long-term safety or site acceptability was undertaken by any of the review teams. SKI and SSI's Terms of Reference for the SAM

  5. Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daud, A.H.

    1996-01-01

    This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

  6. A method for using expert judgement in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

    1997-03-01

    The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

  7. Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

    2003-01-01

    The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

  8. Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilat, Joseph F.; Sylvester, Kori Budlong; Stanbro, William D.

    2002-01-01

    Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.

  9. Expert system for controlling plant growth in a contained environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, George A. (Inventor); Lanoue, Mark Allen (Inventor); Bethel, Matthew (Inventor); Ryan, Robert E. (Inventor)

    2011-01-01

    In a system for optimizing crop growth, vegetation is cultivated in a contained environment, such as a greenhouse, an underground cavern or other enclosed space. Imaging equipment is positioned within or about the contained environment, to acquire spatially distributed crop growth information, and environmental sensors are provided to acquire data regarding multiple environmental conditions that can affect crop development. Illumination within the contained environment, and the addition of essential nutrients and chemicals are in turn controlled in response to data acquired by the imaging apparatus and environmental sensors, by an "expert system" which is trained to analyze and evaluate crop conditions. The expert system controls the spatial and temporal lighting pattern within the contained area, and the timing and allocation of nutrients and chemicals to achieve optimized crop development. A user can access the "expert system" remotely, to assess activity within the growth chamber, and can override the "expert system".

  10. Expert systems for space power supply: design, analysis, and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, R.S.; Thomson, M.K.; Hoshor, A.

    1987-01-01

    The authors evaluated the feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general. To do this, they analyzed the space power supply design process and in associated knowledge base, and characterized them in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. They applied some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain to create a deep system for handling the complex design problem. They authors developed, programmed and tested NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, as a concrete feasibility demonstration

  11. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  12. Expert Systems in Government Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Weintraub, Joseph

    1989-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical appli...

  13. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  14. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  16. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  17. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  18. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  19. What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Michael Julian; O'Leary, Rebecca A; Fisher, Rebecca; Low-Choy, Samantha; Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2014-01-01

    Expert knowledge is a valuable source of information with a wide range of research applications. Despite the recent advances in defining expert knowledge, little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors for quantifying an individual's expertise. We present a systems approach to expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their inter-relationships and allows quantification of an individual's expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network was determined by a second set of taxonomists (supra-experts) who also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states of taxonomists designed to incorporate known differences in career states for model testing. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher-order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite the differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had specified. This systems approach provides a way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it

  20. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  1. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  2. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  3. Expert Oracle GoldenGate

    CERN Document Server

    Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica

  4. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  5. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  6. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  7. System control module diagnostic Expert Assistant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Luis M.; Hansen, Roger F.

    1990-01-01

    The Orbiter EXperiments (OEX) Program was established by NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) to accomplish the precise data collection necessary to support a complete and accurate assessment of Space Transportation System (STS) Orbiter performance during all phases of a mission. During a mission, data generated by the various experiments are conveyed to the OEX System Control Module (SCM) which arranges for and monitors storage of the data on the OEX tape recorder. The SCM Diagnostic Expert Assistant (DEA) is an expert system which provides on demand advice to technicians performing repairs of a malfunctioning SCM. The DEA is a self-contained, data-driven knowledge-based system written in the 'C' Language Production System (CLIPS) for a portable micro-computer of the IBM PC/XT class. The DEA reasons about SCM hardware faults at multiple levels; the most detailed layer of encoded knowledge of the SCM is a representation of individual components and layouts of the custom-designed component boards.

  8. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  9. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  10. Expert systems in process control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittig, T.

    1987-01-01

    To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

  11. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  12. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  13. The unconvincing product - Consumer versus expert hazard identification: A mental models study of novel foods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit; Scholderer, Joachim

    and experts understanding of benefits and risks associated with three Novel foods (a potato, rice and functional food ingredients) using a relatively new methodology for the study of risk perception called Mental models. Mental models focus on the way people conceptualise hazardous processes and allows...... researchers to pit a normative analysis (expert mental models) against a descriptive analysis (consumer mental models). Expert models were elicited by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure from altogether 24 international experts and consumers models from in-dept interviews with Danish consumers. The results...... revealed that consumers´ and experts' mental models differed in connection to scope. Experts focused on the types of hazards for which risk assessments can be conducted under current legal frameworks whereas consumers were concerned about issues that lay outside the scope of current legislation. Experts...

  14. Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

    2017-06-01

    Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. [Telemedicine correlation in retinopathy of prematurity between experts and non-expert observers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossandón, D; Zanolli, M; López, J P; Stevenson, R; Agurto, R; Cartes, C

    2015-01-01

    To study the correlation between expert and non-expert observers in the reporting images for the diagnosis of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a telemedicine setting. A cross-sectional, multicenter study, consisting of 25 sets of images of patients screened for ROP. They were evaluated by two experts in ROP and 1 non-expert and classified according to telemedicine classification, zone, stage, plus disease and Ells referral criteria. The telemedicine classification was: no ROP, mild ROP, type 2 ROP, or ROP that requires treatment. Ells referral criteria is defined as the presence at least one of the following: ROP in zone I, Stage 3 in zone I or II, or plus+ For statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used. For correlation, Kappa value was performed. There was a high correlation between observers for the assessment of ROP stage (0.75; 0.54-0.88) plus disease (0.85; 0.71-0.92), and Ells criteria (0.89; 0.83-1.0). However, inter-observer values were low for zone (0.41; 0.27-0.54) and telemedicine classification (0.43; 0.33-0.6). When evaluating telemedicine images by examiners with different levels of expertise in ROP, the Ells criteria gave the best correlation. In addition, stage of disease and plus disease have good correlation among observers. In contrast, the correlation between observers was low for zone and telemedicine classification. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  17. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  18. Database, expert systems, information retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.

    1989-12-01

    The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)

  19. The useability of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This talk presents the case that it is the user of an Expert System (ES), and the user alone, who must decide on the acceptability of such a system. Further, the useability of an ES is principally a function of the user interface: if a system takes a long time to learn, it will not be used effectively. Some ES are implemented on computers with command line interfaces. It is shown (via a live demonstration using a computer) that such systems restrict the AI professiona's ability to deliver a system which is satisfactory from the use's viewpoint: the limitations of the computer system will dictate the user interface, independently of the user requirements. Only a computer system with a graphical interface can supply the versatility and functionality required by the user. Examples of graphical interface facilities are given

  20. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  1. How should an electric vehicle sound? User and expert perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petiot, Jean-François; Kristensen, Bjørn G.; Maier, Anja

    2013-01-01

    for electric vehicles were investigated in an experimental setting with a total of 40 participants, 34 novice users and six sound experts. Word association was used to elicit emotional reactions to the different sounds. Novice users employ more characterrelated terms to describe the sounds, while experts use...... more composition-based words. Analysis of variance and conjoint analysis was used to analyze participants’ assessments of sounds according to two semantic scales (pleasantness and appropriateness). Considerable inter-individual differences in the ratings of pleasantness and appropriateness indicate...

  2. The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1998-01-01

    When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

  3. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  4. 49 CFR 655.44 - Post-accident testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... best information available at the time of the decision, that the covered employee's performance can be... best available information at the time of the determination that the employee's performance could not... test any other covered employee whose performance could have contributed to the accident, as determined...

  5. Radiation protection in the decommissioning of a post accident reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankine, A.; Wilkinson, J.L.; Dalton, J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the control and limitation of dose uptake to operators during the early stages of decommissioning of the Windscale Piles. This was achieved by careful planning, the use of inactive trials. thoughtful use of remote handling techniques and review and feedback of information. Built between 1947 and 1950, the Windscale Piles were shut down following the Windscale Incident in 1957. UKAEA Government Division are now undertaking the early stages of decommissioning of these facilities, removing material from the air and water ducts and preparing for subsequent core removal. As part of the overall strategy of UKAEA GD, this work is being carried out using contract staff including the use of a Managing Agency, W S Atkins (Northern). Decommissioning utilizes the same means of dose reduction and control as any other nuclear operation although sometimes in novel ways. In the Windscale Piles, fully remote operations have been used to remove fuel and debris from the environs of the core which was damaged during the 1957 incident. Much use has also been made of training in mock-up facilities allowing manual techniques to be used for some jobs. The implications of using various different contractors rather than an in-house team is also discussed. It is concluded that decommissioning of major facilities can be carried out within acceptable dose uptake criteria by utilising both novel and adaptations of traditional, active handling techniques. (author)

  6. Guidelines Manual: Post Accident Procedures for Chemicals and Propellants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    verification cloud. On the other hand, the risks of materials on-scene. Also, a diaper - associated with evacuation of the sive IR instrument and portable...of direction, cloud cover and solar the 28 chemicals and propellants in this radiation level; study. The Chemical Hazard Slide Rule Is relatively easy

  7. Analysis of cost regression and post-accident absence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciech, Drozd

    2017-07-01

    The article presents issues related with costs of work safety. It proves the thesis that economic aspects cannot be overlooked in effective management of occupational health and safety and that adequate expenditures on safety can bring tangible benefits to the company. Reliable analysis of this problem is essential for the description the problem of safety the work. In the article attempts to carry it out using the procedures of mathematical statistics [1, 2, 3].

  8. Post-accident hydrogen control in GKT-containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komurka, M.

    1983-06-01

    The maximum possible temperature and pressure rise is analysed by assuming hydrogen deflagration with no heat loss to the vessel walls for hydrogen concentrations up to 10 Vol%. Alternative hydrogen control system to inerting, air dilution and recombiners based on controlled venting by passing the vented gas through the delay line of the gas treatment system is recommended. The combination of hydrogen control with control of noble gas radioactivity is though to have a positive effect on safety. (Author) [de

  9. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) and expert testimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulich, Ronald; Maciewicz, Raymond; Scrivani, Steven J

    2009-03-01

    Medical experts frequently use imaging studies to illustrate points in their court testimony. This article reviews how these studies impact the credibility of expert testimony with judges and juries. The apparent "objective" evidence provided by such imaging studies can lend strong credence to a judge's or jury's appraisal of medical expert's testimony. However, as the court usually has no specialized scientific expertise, the use of complex images as part of courtroom testimony also has the potential to mislead or at least inappropriately bias the weight given to expert evidence. Recent advances in brain imaging may profoundly impact forensic expert testimony. Functional magnetic resonance imaging and other physiologic imaging techniques currently allow visualization of the activation pattern of brain regions associated with a wide variety of cognitive and behavioral tasks, and more recently, pain. While functional imaging technology has a valuable role in brain research and clinical investigation, it is important to emphasize that the use of imaging studies in forensic matters requires a careful scientific foundation and a rigorous legal assessment.

  10. Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

    2017-11-01

    The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

  11. Glyphosate rodent carcinogenicity bioassay expert panel review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary M; Berry, Colin; Burns, Michele; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Greim, Helmut

    2016-09-01

    Glyphosate has been rigorously and extensively tested for carcinogenicity by administration to mice (five studies) and to rats (nine studies). Most authorities have concluded that the evidence does not indicate a cancer risk to humans. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), however, evaluated some of the available data and concluded that glyphosate probably is carcinogenic to humans. The expert panel convened by Intertek assessed the findings used by IARC, as well as the full body of evidence and found the following: (1) the renal neoplastic effects in males of one mouse study are not associated with glyphosate exposure, because they lack statistical significance, strength, consistency, specificity, lack a dose-response pattern, plausibility, and coherence; (2) the strength of association of liver hemangiosarcomas in a different mouse study is absent, lacking consistency, and a dose-response effect and having in high dose males only a significant incidence increase which is within the historical control range; (3) pancreatic islet-cell adenomas (non-significant incidence increase), in two studies of male SD rats did not progress to carcinomas and lacked a dose-response pattern (the highest incidence is in the low dose followed by the high dose); (4) in one of two studies, a non-significant positive trend in the incidence of hepatocellular adenomas in male rats did not lead to progression to carcinomas; (5) in one of two studies, the non-significant positive trend in the incidence of thyroid C-cell adenomas in female rats was not present and there was no progression of adenomas to carcinomas at the end of the study. Application of criteria for causality considerations to the above mentioned tumor types and given the overall weight-of-evidence (WoE), the expert panel concluded that glyphosate is not a carcinogen in laboratory animals.

  12. Detecting malingering: a survey of experts' practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slick, Daniel J; Tan, Jing E; Strauss, Esther H; Hultsch, David F

    2004-06-01

    A survey addressing practices of 'expert' neuropsychologists in handling financial compensation claim or personal injury litigation cases was carried out. Potential participants were identified by publication history. Responses were obtained from 24 out of the 39 neuropsychologists who were surveyed. Approximately 79% of the respondents reported using at least one specialized technique for detecting malingering in every litigant assessment. Half stated that they always give specialized tests at the beginning of the assessment. The Rey 15-Item test and the Test of Memory Malingering were the most frequently reported measures. Respondents also reported frequent use of 'malingering' indexes from standard neuropsychological tests. Reported base-rates varied, but the majority of respondents indicated that at least 10% of the litigants they assessed in the last year were definitely malingering. Respondents were split on the practice of routinely giving warnings at the outset of assessments that suboptimal performance may be detected. However, when the client's motivational status was suspect, more than half (58.3%) altered their assessment routine at least on some occasions, by encouraging good effort (70.8%) or administering additional SVTs. A minority directly confronted or warned clients (25%), terminated the examination earlier than planned (16.6%), or contacted the referring attorney immediately (29.2%). Respondents almost always stated some opinion regarding indicators of invalidity in written reports (95%). However, 41.7% rarely used the term 'malingering' and 12.5% never used the term. Most respondents (>80%) instead stated that the test results are invalid, inconsistent with the severity of the injury or indicative of exaggeration. Copyright 2003 National Academy of Neuropsychology

  13. Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parcy, J.P.

    1982-09-01

    A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

  14. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  15. Succession planning for technical experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue; Cain, Ronald A.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; Agreda, Carla L.

    2017-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  16. Succession planning for technical experts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  17. Expert system development (ESD) shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmini, S.; Diwakar, M.P.; Rathode, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.

    1991-01-01

    An Expert System Development (ESD) Shell design implementation is desribed in detail. The shell provides high-level generic facilities for Knowledge Representation (KR) and inferencing and tools for developing user interfaces. Powerful set of tools in the shell relieves much of the programming burden in the ES development. The shell is written in PROLOG under IBM PC/AT. KR facilities are based on two very powerful formalisms namely, frames and rules. Inference Engine (IE) draws most of its power from unification and backward reasoning strategy in PROLOG. This basic mechanism is enhanced further by incorporating both forward and backward chaining of rules and frame-based inferencing. Overall programming style integrates multiple paradigms including logic, object oriented, access-oriented and imperative programming. This permits ES designer a lot of flexibility in organizing inference control. Creation and maintainance of knowledge base is a major activity. The shell, therefore, provides number of facilities to simplify these tasks. Shell design also takes note of the fact that final success of any system depends on end-user satisfaction and hence provides features to build use-friendly interfaces. The shell also provides a set of interfacing predicates so that it can be embedded within any PROLOG program to incorporate functionalilty of the shell in the user program. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs

  18. Operational expert system applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Zarri, Gian Piero

    1992-01-01

    Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

  19. Expert database system for quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

    1993-09-01

    There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

  20. BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)