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Sample records for possibly censored survival

  1. Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

    2009-11-01

    Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from

  2. [Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

    2014-04-01

    Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

  3. Multivariate interval-censored survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Interval censoring means that an event time is only known to lie in an interval (L,R], with L the last examination time before the event, and R the first after. In the univariate case, parametric models are easily fitted, whereas for non-parametric models, the mass is placed on some intervals, de...

  4. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  5. Regression models for interval censored survival data: Application to HIV infection in Danish homosexual men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Bendix

    1996-01-01

    This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men.......This paper shows how to fit excess and relative risk regression models to interval censored survival data, and how to implement the models in standard statistical software. The methods developed are used for the analysis of HIV infection rates in a cohort of Danish homosexual men....

  6. Analysis of survival data with dependent censoring copula-based approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Emura, Takeshi

    2018-01-01

    This book introduces readers to copula-based statistical methods for analyzing survival data involving dependent censoring. Primarily focusing on likelihood-based methods performed under copula models, it is the first book solely devoted to the problem of dependent censoring. The book demonstrates the advantages of the copula-based methods in the context of medical research, especially with regard to cancer patients’ survival data. Needless to say, the statistical methods presented here can also be applied to many other branches of science, especially in reliability, where survival analysis plays an important role. The book can be used as a textbook for graduate coursework or a short course aimed at (bio-) statisticians. To deepen readers’ understanding of copula-based approaches, the book provides an accessible introduction to basic survival analysis and explains the mathematical foundations of copula-based survival models.

  7. Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

    OpenAIRE

    Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

  8. Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengnan Huang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

  9. Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengnan; Zhang, Hongjiu; Boss, Jonathan; Goutman, Stephen A; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Dinov, Ivo D; Guan, Yuanfang

    2017-12-01

    Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

  10. Missing data and censoring in the analysis of progression-free survival in oncology clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denne, J S; Stone, A M; Bailey-Iacona, R; Chen, T-T

    2013-01-01

    Progression-free survival (PFS) is increasingly used as a primary endpoint in oncology clinical trials. However, trial conduct is often such that PFS data on some patients may be partially missing either due to incomplete follow-up for progression, or due to data that may be collected but confounded by patients stopping randomized therapy or starting alternative therapy prior to progression. Regulatory guidance on how to handle these patients in the analysis and whether to censor these patients differs between agencies. We present results of a reanalysis of 28 Phase III trials from 12 companies or institutions performed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association-sponsored PFS Expert Team. We show that analyses not adhering to the intention-to-treat principle tend to give hazard ratio estimates further from unity and describe several factors associated with this shift. We present illustrative simulations to support these findings and provide recommendations for the analysis of PFS.

  11. Estimating survival of dental fillings on the basis of interval-censored data and multi-state models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joly, Pierre; Gerds, Thomas A; Qvist, Vibeke

    2012-01-01

    We aim to compare the life expectancy of a filling in a primary tooth between two types of treatments. We define the probabilities that a dental filling survives without complication until the permanent tooth erupts from beneath (exfoliation). We relate the time to exfoliation of the tooth...... with all these particularities, we propose to use a parametric four-state model with three random effects to take into account the hierarchical cluster structure. For inference, right and interval censoring as well as left truncation have to be dealt with. With the proposed approach, we can conclude...... that the estimated probability that a filling survives without complication until exfoliation is larger for one treatment than for the other, for all ages of the child at the time of treatment....

  12. On Hybrid Censored Inverse Lomax Distribution: Application to the Survival Data

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    Abhimanyu Singh Yadav

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we proposed the estimation procedures to estimate the unknown parameters, reliability and hazard functions of Inverse Lomax distribution. The mathematical expressions for maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are derived in presence of hybrid censoring scheme. In most of the cases, it has been seen that maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators of the parameters are not appear in explicit form. Hence, Newton-Raphson (N-R method has been used to draw the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. The Bayes estimators are obtained under Jeffrey's non-informative prior for both shape  and scale using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique. Further, we have also constructed the 95% asymptotic confidence interval based on maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals based on MCMC samples. Finally, two data sets have been used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

  13. Bayesian Analysis of the Survival Function and Failure Rate of Weibull Distribution with Censored Data

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    Chris Bambey Guure

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The survival function of the Weibull distribution determines the probability that a unit or an individual will survive beyond a certain specified time while the failure rate is the rate at which a randomly selected individual known to be alive at time will die at time (. The classical approach for estimating the survival function and the failure rate is the maximum likelihood method. In this study, we strive to determine the best method, by comparing the classical maximum likelihood against the Bayesian estimators using an informative prior and a proposed data-dependent prior known as generalised noninformative prior. The Bayesian estimation is considered under three loss functions. Due to the complexity in dealing with the integrals using the Bayesian estimator, Lindley’s approximation procedure is employed to reduce the ratio of the integrals. For the purpose of comparison, the mean squared error (MSE and the absolute bias are obtained. This study is conducted via simulation by utilising different sample sizes. We observed from the study that the generalised prior we assumed performed better than the others under linear exponential loss function with respect to MSE and under general entropy loss function with respect to absolute bias.

  14. How to Deal with Interval-Censored Data Practically while Assessing the Progression-Free Survival: A Step-by-Step Guide Using SAS and R Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugué, Audrey Emmanuelle; Pulido, Marina; Chabaud, Sylvie; Belin, Lisa; Gal, Jocelyn

    2016-12-01

    We describe how to estimate progression-free survival while dealing with interval-censored data in the setting of clinical trials in oncology. Three procedures with SAS and R statistical software are described: one allowing for a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the survival curve using the EM-ICM (Expectation and Maximization-Iterative Convex Minorant) algorithm as described by Wellner and Zhan in 1997; a sensitivity analysis procedure in which the progression time is assigned (i) at the midpoint, (ii) at the upper limit (reflecting the standard analysis when the progression time is assigned at the first radiologic exam showing progressive disease), or (iii) at the lower limit of the censoring interval; and finally, two multiple imputations are described considering a uniform or the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE) distribution. Clin Cancer Res; 22(23); 5629-35. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  15. PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF THE HYBRID CENSORED LOMAX DISTRIBUTION

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    Samir Kamel Ashour

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Survival analysis is used in various fields for analyzing data involving the duration between two events. It is also known as event history analysis, lifetime data analysis, reliability analysis or time to event analysis. One of the difficulties which arise in this area is the presence of censored data. The lifetime of an individual is censored when it cannot be exactly measured but partial information is available. Different circumstances can produce different types of censoring. The two most common censoring schemes used in life testing experiments are Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes. Hybrid censoring scheme is mixture of Type-I and Type-II censoring scheme. In this paper we consider the estimation of parameters of Lomax distribution based on hybrid censored data. The parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The Fisher information matrix has been obtained and it can be used for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals.

  16. Survival dimensionality reduction (SDR: development and clinical application of an innovative approach to detect epistasis in presence of right-censored data

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    Beretta Lorenzo

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epistasis is recognized as a fundamental part of the genetic architecture of individuals. Several computational approaches have been developed to model gene-gene interactions in case-control studies, however, none of them is suitable for time-dependent analysis. Herein we introduce the Survival Dimensionality Reduction (SDR algorithm, a non-parametric method specifically designed to detect epistasis in lifetime datasets. Results The algorithm requires neither specification about the underlying survival distribution nor about the underlying interaction model and proved satisfactorily powerful to detect a set of causative genes in synthetic epistatic lifetime datasets with a limited number of samples and high degree of right-censorship (up to 70%. The SDR method was then applied to a series of 386 Dutch patients with active rheumatoid arthritis that were treated with anti-TNF biological agents. Among a set of 39 candidate genes, none of which showed a detectable marginal effect on anti-TNF responses, the SDR algorithm did find that the rs1801274 SNP in the FcγRIIa gene and the rs10954213 SNP in the IRF5 gene non-linearly interact to predict clinical remission after anti-TNF biologicals. Conclusions Simulation studies and application in a real-world setting support the capability of the SDR algorithm to model epistatic interactions in candidate-genes studies in presence of right-censored data. Availability: http://sourceforge.net/projects/sdrproject/

  17. Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

    2017-09-01

    In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

  18. Censored correlated cytokine concentrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Andreas; Benn, Christine Stabell; Jørgensen, Mathias J

    2013-01-01

    ) can be used to describe the relative concentration between two cytokines, and the GMR ratio (GMRR) can be used to compare two groups. The problem is how to estimate GMRRs from censored distributions.We evaluated methods, including simple deletion and substitution, in simulated and real data. One...... stacking method that uses clustered variance-covariance estimation allowing homogeneous (Stackc) or inhomogeneous (Stackh) variances. We compare it with direct estimation of the bivariate Tobit likelihood function (Bitobit) and multiple imputation. We assess sensitivity to inhomogeneity and non...

  19. Interval-Censored Time-to-Event Data Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Ding-Geng

    2012-01-01

    Interval-Censored Time-to-Event Data: Methods and Applications collects the most recent techniques, models, and computational tools for interval-censored time-to-event data. Top biostatisticians from academia, biopharmaceutical industries, and government agencies discuss how these advances are impacting clinical trials and biomedical research. Divided into three parts, the book begins with an overview of interval-censored data modeling, including nonparametric estimation, survival functions, regression analysis, multivariate data analysis, competing risks analysis, and other models for interva

  20. A flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival times for censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials.

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    Horiguchi, Miki; Cronin, Angel M; Takeuchi, Masahiro; Uno, Hajime

    2018-04-22

    In randomized clinical trials where time-to-event is the primary outcome, almost routinely, the logrank test is prespecified as the primary test and the hazard ratio is used to quantify treatment effect. If the ratio of 2 hazard functions is not constant, the logrank test is not optimal and the interpretation of hazard ratio is not obvious. When such a nonproportional hazards case is expected at the design stage, the conventional practice is to prespecify another member of weighted logrank tests, eg, Peto-Prentice-Wilcoxon test. Alternatively, one may specify a robust test as the primary test, which can capture various patterns of difference between 2 event time distributions. However, most of those tests do not have companion procedures to quantify the treatment difference, and investigators have fallen back on reporting treatment effect estimates not associated with the primary test. Such incoherence in the "test/estimation" procedure may potentially mislead clinicians/patients who have to balance risk-benefit for treatment decision. To address this, we propose a flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival time, where the truncation time τ is selected data dependently. The proposed procedure is composed of a prespecified test and an estimation of corresponding robust and interpretable quantitative treatment effect. The utility of the new procedure is demonstrated by numerical studies based on 2 randomized cancer clinical trials; the test is dramatically more powerful than the logrank, Wilcoxon tests, and the restricted mean survival time-based test with a fixed τ, for the patterns of difference seen in these cancer clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Marginal regression analysis of recurrent events with coarsened censoring times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X Joan; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

    2016-12-01

    Motivated by an ongoing pediatric mental health care (PMHC) study, this article presents weakly structured methods for analyzing doubly censored recurrent event data where only coarsened information on censoring is available. The study extracted administrative records of emergency department visits from provincial health administrative databases. The available information of each individual subject is limited to a subject-specific time window determined up to concealed data. To evaluate time-dependent effect of exposures, we adapt the local linear estimation with right censored survival times under the Cox regression model with time-varying coefficients (cf. Cai and Sun, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2003, 30, 93-111). We establish the pointwise consistency and asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimator, and examine its performance by simulation. The PMHC study illustrates the proposed approach throughout the article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Nonparametric tests for censored data

    CERN Document Server

    Bagdonavicus, Vilijandas; Nikulin, Mikhail

    2013-01-01

    This book concerns testing hypotheses in non-parametric models. Generalizations of many non-parametric tests to the case of censored and truncated data are considered. Most of the test results are proved and real applications are illustrated using examples. Theories and exercises are provided. The incorrect use of many tests applying most statistical software is highlighted and discussed.

  3. Censoring and Selling Film Noir

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    Sheri Chinen Biesen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Film noir is known for its duplicity. Industry censors considered 1940s noir cinema provocative, salacious and ‘sordid.’ Hollywood studios walked a fine line between appearing to comply with Hays office Production Code censorship while simultaneously pushing the envelope of its moral constraints, then hyping and sensationalizing censorable sex, violence and hard-hitting themes to sell noir films to the public. In fact, studios capitalized on the racy explicit nature of noir pictures in publicity contradicting assurances of censorial compliance. For instance, censor Joseph Breen was “shocked” when MGM purchased James Cain’s The Postman Always Rings Twice. It was banned for a decade. Yet, ten years later as filmmakers adapted hardboiled fiction, Breen assured religious groups it would “not be offensive.” Yet, it was promoted as “torrid,” “too hot to handle” with Lana Turner in a bathing suit finding “Love at Laguna Beach” with hunky John Garfield who clamored, “You must be a she-devil,” suggesting far more sex, skin and “savage boldness” than is shown in the film. Film noir responded to Production Code censorship and other regulatory factors, including Office of War Information Bureau of Motion Pictures restrictions on Hollywood screen depictions of the domestic American home front (or overseas combat front, and Office of Censorship strictures such as a wartime ban on screen gangsters as ‘un-American’ for propaganda purposes in World War II-era noir films centering on criminals. These multiple censorship entities often collided. This regulatory climate catalyzed the development of film noir, a dark cycle of shadowy 1940s-50s crime films that boomed by World War II and evolved over the postwar era. I will investigate extensive primary archival research—including scripts, memos from industry censors, writers, directors, producers, and publicity records—to compare how film noir was censored and sold.

  4. Linear Regression with a Randomly Censored Covariate: Application to an Alzheimer's Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atem, Folefac D; Qian, Jing; Maye, Jacqueline E; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A

    2017-01-01

    The association between maternal age of onset of dementia and amyloid deposition (measured by in vivo positron emission tomography (PET) imaging) in cognitively normal older offspring is of interest. In a regression model for amyloid, special methods are required due to the random right censoring of the covariate of maternal age of onset of dementia. Prior literature has proposed methods to address the problem of censoring due to assay limit of detection, but not random censoring. We propose imputation methods and a survival regression method that do not require parametric assumptions about the distribution of the censored covariate. Existing imputation methods address missing covariates, but not right censored covariates. In simulation studies, we compare these methods to the simple, but inefficient complete case analysis, and to thresholding approaches. We apply the methods to the Alzheimer's study.

  5. Multiple Imputation of a Randomly Censored Covariate Improves Logistic Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atem, Folefac D; Qian, Jing; Maye, Jacqueline E; Johnson, Keith A; Betensky, Rebecca A

    2016-01-01

    Randomly censored covariates arise frequently in epidemiologic studies. The most commonly used methods, including complete case and single imputation or substitution, suffer from inefficiency and bias. They make strong parametric assumptions or they consider limit of detection censoring only. We employ multiple imputation, in conjunction with semi-parametric modeling of the censored covariate, to overcome these shortcomings and to facilitate robust estimation. We develop a multiple imputation approach for randomly censored covariates within the framework of a logistic regression model. We use the non-parametric estimate of the covariate distribution or the semiparametric Cox model estimate in the presence of additional covariates in the model. We evaluate this procedure in simulations, and compare its operating characteristics to those from the complete case analysis and a survival regression approach. We apply the procedures to an Alzheimer's study of the association between amyloid positivity and maternal age of onset of dementia. Multiple imputation achieves lower standard errors and higher power than the complete case approach under heavy and moderate censoring and is comparable under light censoring. The survival regression approach achieves the highest power among all procedures, but does not produce interpretable estimates of association. Multiple imputation offers a favorable alternative to complete case analysis and ad hoc substitution methods in the presence of randomly censored covariates within the framework of logistic regression.

  6. Regression analysis of censored data using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parner, Erik T.; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2010-01-01

    We draw upon a series of articles in which a method based on pseu- dovalues is proposed for direct regression modeling of the survival function, the restricted mean, and the cumulative incidence function in competing risks with right-censored data. The models, once the pseudovalues have been...... computed, can be fit using standard generalized estimating equation software. Here we present Stata procedures for computing these pseudo-observations. An example from a bone marrow transplantation study is used to illustrate the method....

  7. S. Shchogolev: doctor and censor

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    F. Ya. Stupak

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the life path of controversial figure: physician by education, publicist, public and political figure, censor with extreme anti­Ukrainian views S. Shchogolev. In Ukrainian historiography personality of S. Shchogolev has not been the subject of a separate scientific research, while theoretical works of this state and public figure is the subject of much scientific debate and political manipulations. Basing on existing literature the article reveals some touches of historical portrait, journalistic achievements of state and public figure. Being a member of publishing committee he was responsible for censorship of Ukrainian books. Shchogolev owned numerous journalistic heritages, but the pinnacle of his intellectual legacy is the work «Ukrainian movement as modern stage of South­Ukrainian separatism» that was published in 1912. In his major work the author, standing on the Russian nationalistic positions, declared Ukrainian movement to cultural, economical and political separatism. The work is a detailed informative message about institutions, publications and individuals who somehow contributed to the Ukrainian cultural and political life in Russia and abroad. S. Shchogolev’s book in its essence was a fraud facts and distortion of scientific theories. The article presents the analytical thinking of famous politicians and historians about this figure.

  8. Semiparametric regression for restricted mean residual life under right censoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mansourvar, Zahra; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    is not observed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose the proportional restricted mean residual life model for fitting survival data under right censoring. For inference on the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the asymptotic properties...... of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a class of goodness-of-fit test is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and the approach is applied to a set of real life data collected from...

  9. On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

  10. Multivariate density estimation using dimension reducing information and tail flattening transformations for truncated or censored data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch-Kromann, Tine; Nielsen, Jens

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a multivariate density estimator for truncated and censored data with special emphasis on extreme values based on survival analysis. A local constant density estimator is considered. We extend this estimator by means of tail flattening transformation, dimension reducing prior...

  11. Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-01-01

    A semiparametric copula model for bivariate survival data is characterized by a parametric copula model of dependence and nonparametric models of two marginal survival functions. Efficient estimation for the semiparametric copula model has been recently studied for the complete data case. When the survival data are censored, semiparametric efficient estimation has only been considered for some specific copula models such as the Gaussian copulas. In this paper, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound and efficient estimation for general semiparametric copula models for possibly censored data. We construct an approximate maximum likelihood estimator by approximating the log baseline hazard functions with spline functions. We show that our estimates of the copula dependence parameter and the survival functions are asymptotically normal and efficient. Simple consistent covariance estimators are also provided. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  12. Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  13. Bayesian sample size determination for cost-effectiveness studies with censored data.

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    Daniel P Beavers

    Full Text Available Cost-effectiveness models are commonly utilized to determine the combined clinical and economic impact of one treatment compared to another. However, most methods for sample size determination of cost-effectiveness studies assume fully observed costs and effectiveness outcomes, which presents challenges for survival-based studies in which censoring exists. We propose a Bayesian method for the design and analysis of cost-effectiveness data in which costs and effectiveness may be censored, and the sample size is approximated for both power and assurance. We explore two parametric models and demonstrate the flexibility of the approach to accommodate a variety of modifications to study assumptions.

  14. JOINING OF ECONOMIC ENTITIES AS A POSSIBILITY OF SURVIVAL ON THE MODERN MARKET

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    Nikolina Pavičić Rešetar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In today's global market, a major challenge for every economic entity is to be competitive and achieve its objectives. The method of survival shows that those companies with the lowest costs will survive and remain on the market. G. J. Stigler explained this technique on the market share of different sized companies in the steel industry in the United States. In his method he groups enterprises by size (small, medium and large. Historically, it is known that economic entities have been joining together since the Middle Ages. At that time, traders who formed associations were not engaged only in trade, but also in transportation and monetary activity. Economic entities are still joining together today, mostly in the form of a cooperative, cluster, cooperation, public private partnership or holding. The reason for that lies in the reduction of costs, risks and competition and the possibility of increasing the capacity of economic entities. Also, it should be noted that there is a synergy effect when economic entities join together. We are witnesses of many failed businesses, which did not respond to the economic crisis and the needs of the market. The aim of this paper is to try to connect the technique of survival and joining of economic entities and show how a merger is one of the survival models that in conditions of economic crisis provides options to business entities. Only companies with the lowest costs and high-quality technology can survive and compete in today's market.

  15. Estimating and Testing Mediation Effects with Censored Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijuan; Zhang, Zhiyong

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated influences of censored data on mediation analysis. Mediation effect estimates can be biased and inefficient with censoring on any one of the input, mediation, and output variables. A Bayesian Tobit approach was introduced to estimate and test mediation effects with censored data. Simulation results showed that the Bayesian…

  16. Influence assessment in censored mixed-effects models using the multivariate Student’s-t distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, Larissa A.; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; Castro, Luis M.; Lachos, Victor H.

    2015-01-01

    In biomedical studies on HIV RNA dynamics, viral loads generate repeated measures that are often subjected to upper and lower detection limits, and hence these responses are either left- or right-censored. Linear and non-linear mixed-effects censored (LMEC/NLMEC) models are routinely used to analyse these longitudinal data, with normality assumptions for the random effects and residual errors. However, the derived inference may not be robust when these underlying normality assumptions are questionable, especially the presence of outliers and thick-tails. Motivated by this, Matos et al. (2013b) recently proposed an exact EM-type algorithm for LMEC/NLMEC models using a multivariate Student’s-t distribution, with closed-form expressions at the E-step. In this paper, we develop influence diagnostics for LMEC/NLMEC models using the multivariate Student’s-t density, based on the conditional expectation of the complete data log-likelihood. This partially eliminates the complexity associated with the approach of Cook (1977, 1986) for censored mixed-effects models. The new methodology is illustrated via an application to a longitudinal HIV dataset. In addition, a simulation study explores the accuracy of the proposed measures in detecting possible influential observations for heavy-tailed censored data under different perturbation and censoring schemes. PMID:26190871

  17. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  18. Cordyceps militaris improves the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive hypertensive rats possibly via influences of mitochondria and autophagy functions

    OpenAIRE

    Takakura, Kentaro; Ito, Shogo; Sonoda, Junya; Tabata, Koji; Shiozaki, Motoko; Nagai, Kaoru; Shibata, Masahiro; Koike, Masato; Uchiyama, Yasuo; Gotow, Takahiro

    2017-01-01

    The genus Cordyceps and its specific ingredient, cordycepin, have attracted much attention for multiple health benefits and expectations for lifespan extension. We analyzed whether Cordyceps militaris (CM), which contains large amounts of cordycepin, can extend the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive rats, whose survival was reduced to â¼3 months via a high-salt diet. The survival of these life-shortened rats was extended significantly when supplemented with CM, possibly due to a minimization of ...

  19. A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

    2006-07-01

    Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

  20. Evaluation of aileron actuator reliability with censored data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Huaiyuan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available For the purpose of enhancing reliability of aileron of Airbus new-generation A350XWB, an evaluation of aileron reliability on the basis of maintenance data is presented in this paper. Practical maintenance data contains large number of censoring samples, information uncertainty of which makes it hard to evaluate reliability of aileron actuator. Considering that true lifetime of censoring sample has identical distribution with complete sample, if censoring sample is transformed into complete sample, conversion frequency of censoring sample can be estimated according to frequency of complete sample. On the one hand, standard life table estimation and product limit method are improved on the basis of such conversion frequency, enabling accurate estimation of various censoring samples. On the other hand, by taking such frequency as one of the weight factors and integrating variance of order statistics under standard distribution, weighted least square estimation is formed for accurately estimating various censoring samples. Large amounts of experiments and simulations show that reliabilities of improved life table and improved product limit method are closer to the true value and more conservative; moreover, weighted least square estimate (WLSE, with conversion frequency of censoring sample and variances of order statistics as the weights, can still estimate accurately with high proportion of censored data in samples. Algorithm in this paper has good effect and can accurately estimate the reliability of aileron actuator even with small sample and high censoring rate. This research has certain significance in theory and engineering practice.

  1. ASURV: Astronomical SURVival Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.; Isobe, T.; LaValley, M.

    2014-06-01

    ASURV (Astronomical SURVival Statistics) provides astronomy survival analysis for right- and left-censored data including the maximum-likelihood Kaplan-Meier estimator and several univariate two-sample tests, bivariate correlation measures, and linear regressions. ASURV is written in FORTRAN 77, and is stand-alone and does not call any specialized libraries.

  2. Fitting and Analyzing Randomly Censored Geometric Extreme Exponential Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Yameen Danish

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the Bayesian analysis of two-parameter geometric extreme exponential distribution with randomly censored data. The continuous conjugate prior of the scale and shape parameters of the model does not exist while computing the Bayes estimates, it is assumed that the scale and shape parameters have independent gamma priors. It is seen that the closed-form expressions for the Bayes estimators are not possible; we suggest the Lindley’s approximation to obtain the Bayes estimates. However, the Bayesian credible intervals cannot be constructed while using this method, we propose Gibbs sampling to obtain the Bayes estimates and also to construct the Bayesian credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to observe the behavior of the Bayes estimators and also to compare with the maximum likelihood estimators. One real data analysis is performed for illustration.

  3. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

  4. Bayesian semiparametric mixture Tobit models with left censoring, skewness, and covariate measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagne, Getachew A; Huang, Yangxin

    2013-09-30

    Common problems to many longitudinal HIV/AIDS, cancer, vaccine, and environmental exposure studies are the presence of a lower limit of quantification of an outcome with skewness and time-varying covariates with measurement errors. There has been relatively little work published simultaneously dealing with these features of longitudinal data. In particular, left-censored data falling below a limit of detection may sometimes have a proportion larger than expected under a usually assumed log-normal distribution. In such cases, alternative models, which can account for a high proportion of censored data, should be considered. In this article, we present an extension of the Tobit model that incorporates a mixture of true undetectable observations and those values from a skew-normal distribution for an outcome with possible left censoring and skewness, and covariates with substantial measurement error. To quantify the covariate process, we offer a flexible nonparametric mixed-effects model within the Tobit framework. A Bayesian modeling approach is used to assess the simultaneous impact of left censoring, skewness, and measurement error in covariates on inference. The proposed methods are illustrated using real data from an AIDS clinical study. . Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. A flexible cure rate model with dependent censoring and a known cure threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Paul W

    2016-11-10

    We propose a flexible cure rate model that accommodates different censoring distributions for the cured and uncured groups and also allows for some individuals to be observed as cured when their survival time exceeds a known threshold. We model the survival times for the uncured group using an accelerated failure time model with errors distributed according to the seminonparametric distribution, potentially truncated at a known threshold. We suggest a straightforward extension of the usual expectation-maximization algorithm approach for obtaining estimates in cure rate models to accommodate the cure threshold and dependent censoring. We additionally suggest a likelihood ratio test for testing for the presence of dependent censoring in the proposed cure rate model. We show through numerical studies that our model has desirable properties and leads to approximately unbiased parameter estimates in a variety of scenarios. To demonstrate how our method performs in practice, we analyze data from a bone marrow transplantation study and a liver transplant study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. The art of progressive censoring applications to reliability and quality

    CERN Document Server

    Balakrishnan, N

    2014-01-01

    This monograph offers a thorough and updated guide to the theory and methods of progressive censoring, an area that has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. Progressive censoring, originally proposed in the 1950s, is an efficient method of handling samples from industrial experiments involving lifetimes of units that have either failed or censored in a progressive fashion during the life test, with many practical applications to reliability and quality. Key topics and features: Data sets from the literature as well as newly simulated data sets are used to illustrate concepts throughout the text Emphasis on real-life applications to life testing, reliability, and quality control Discussion of parametric and nonparametric inference Coverage of experimental design with optimal progressive censoring The Art of Progressive Censoring is a valuable reference for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners in applied statistics, quality control, life testing, and reliability. With its accessible style...

  7. Can quantum mechanics fool the cosmic censor?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsas, G. E. A.; Silva, A. R. R. da; Richartz, M.; Saa, A.; Vanzella, D. A. T.

    2009-01-01

    We revisit the mechanism for violating the weak cosmic-censorship conjecture (WCCC) by overspinning a nearly-extreme charged black hole. The mechanism consists of an incoming massless neutral scalar particle, with low energy and large angular momentum, tunneling into the hole. We investigate the effect of the large angular momentum of the incoming particle on the background geometry and address recent claims that such a backreaction would invalidate the mechanism. We show that the large angular momentum of the incident particle does not constitute an obvious impediment to the success of the overspinning quantum mechanism, although the induced backreaction turns out to be essential to restoring the validity of the WCCC in the classical regime. These results seem to endorse the view that the 'cosmic censor' may be oblivious to processes involving quantum effects.

  8. Evaluation of possible prognostic factors for the success, survival, and failure of dental implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geckili, Onur; Bilhan, Hakan; Geckili, Esma; Cilingir, Altug; Mumcu, Emre; Bural, Canan

    2014-02-01

    To analyze the prognostic factors that are associated with the success, survival, and failure rates of dental implants. Data including implant sizes, insertion time, implant location, and prosthetic treatment of 1656 implants have been collected, and the association of these factors with success, survival, and failure of implants was analyzed. The success rate was lower for short and maxillary implants. The failure rate of maxillary implants exceeded that of mandibular implants, and the failure rate of implants that were placed in the maxillary anterior region was significantly higher than other regions. The failure rates of implants that were placed 5 years ago or more were higher than those that were placed later. Anterior maxilla is more critical for implant loss than other sites. Implants in the anterior mandible show better success compared with other locations, and longer implants show better success rates. The learning curve of the clinician influences survival and success rates of dental implants.

  9. Interglacial insects and their possible survival in Greenland during the last glacial stage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøcher, Jens Jensenius

    2012-01-01

    Sediments from the last interglacial (Eemian) in Jameson Land, East Greenland, and the Thule area, NW Greenland, have revealed a number of insect fragments of both arctic and more or less warmth-demanding species. Altogether, the interglacial fauna of Coleoptera (beetles) indicates boreal...... beetle species such as Amara alpina and Isochnus arcticus did not survive the last glacial stage in Greenland. Two factors that have not been sufficiently considered when discussing survival contra extinction are the importance of microclimate and the number of sun-hours during the Arctic summer. Even...... among the Coleoptera, which as a group fares quite badly in the Arctic, there might be survivors, at least among those found both during the interglacial and as fossils during the early Holocene. First of all, glacial survival applies to the seed bug Nysius groenlandicus, which was widespread during...

  10. Maximum Likelihood and Bayes Estimation in Randomly Censored Geometric Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hare Krishna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the geometric distribution under randomly censored data. Maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals based on Fisher information matrix are derived for the unknown parameters with randomly censored data. Bayes estimators are also developed using beta priors under generalized entropy and LINEX loss functions. Also, Bayesian credible and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals are obtained for the parameters. Expected time on test and reliability characteristics are also analyzed in this article. To compare various estimates developed in the article, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out. Finally, for illustration purpose, a randomly censored real data set is discussed.

  11. Estimating length of avian incubation and nestling stages in afrotropical forest birds from interval-censored nest records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, T.R.; Newmark, W.D.

    2010-01-01

    In the East Usambara Mountains in northeast Tanzania, research on the effects of forest fragmentation and disturbance on nest survival in understory birds resulted in the accumulation of 1,002 nest records between 2003 and 2008 for 8 poorly studied species. Because information on the length of the incubation and nestling stages in these species is nonexistent or sparse, our objectives in this study were (1) to estimate the length of the incubation and nestling stage and (2) to compute nest survival using these estimates in combination with calculated daily survival probability. Because our data were interval censored, we developed and applied two new statistical methods to estimate stage length. In the 8 species studied, the incubation stage lasted 9.6-21.8 days and the nestling stage 13.9-21.2 days. Combining these results with estimates of daily survival probability, we found that nest survival ranged from 6.0% to 12.5%. We conclude that our methodology for estimating stage lengths from interval-censored nest records is a reasonable and practical approach in the presence of interval-censored data. ?? 2010 The American Ornithologists' Union.

  12. On robust forecasting of autoregressive time series under censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Kharin, Y.; Badziahin, I.

    2009-01-01

    Problems of robust statistical forecasting are considered for autoregressive time series observed under distortions generated by interval censoring. Three types of robust forecasting statistics are developed; meansquare risk is evaluated for the developed forecasting statistics. Numerical results are given.

  13. Nonparametric estimation for censored mixture data with application to the Cooperative Huntington's Observational Research Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

    2012-01-01

    This work presents methods for estimating genotype-specific distributions from genetic epidemiology studies where the event times are subject to right censoring, the genotypes are not directly observed, and the data arise from a mixture of scientifically meaningful subpopulations. Examples of such studies include kin-cohort studies and quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies. Current methods for analyzing censored mixture data include two types of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) which do not make parametric assumptions on the genotype-specific density functions. Although both NPMLEs are commonly used, we show that one is inefficient and the other inconsistent. To overcome these deficiencies, we propose three classes of consistent nonparametric estimators which do not assume parametric density models and are easy to implement. They are based on the inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and nonparametric imputation (IMP). The AIPW achieves the efficiency bound without additional modeling assumptions. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate satisfactory performance of these estimators even when the data are heavily censored. We apply these estimators to the Cooperative Huntington's Observational Research Trial (COHORT), and provide age-specific estimates of the effect of mutation in the Huntington gene on mortality using a sample of family members. The close approximation of the estimated non-carrier survival rates to that of the U.S. population indicates small ascertainment bias in the COHORT family sample. Our analyses underscore an elevated risk of death in Huntington gene mutation carriers compared to non-carriers for a wide age range, and suggest that the mutation equally affects survival rates in both genders. The estimated survival rates are useful in genetic counseling for providing guidelines on interpreting the risk of death associated with a positive genetic testing, and in facilitating future subjects at risk

  14. Lethal genes surviving by mosaicism: a possible explanation for sporadic birth defects involving the skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Happle, R

    1987-04-01

    A genetic concept is advanced to explain the origin of several sporadic syndromes characterized by a mosaic distribution of skin defects. It is postulated that these disorders are due to the action of a lethal gene surviving by mosaicism. The presence of the mutation in the zygote will lead to death of the embryo at an early stage of development. Cells bearing the mutation can survive only in a mosaic state, in close proximity with normal cells. The mosaic may arise either from a gametic half chromatid mutation or from an early somatic mutation. This concept of origin is proposed to apply to the Schimmelpenning-Feuerstein-Mims syndrome, the McCune-Albright syndrome, the Klippel-Trenaunay syndrome, the Sturge-Weber syndrome, and neurocutaneous melanosis. Moreover, this etiologic hypothesis may apply to two other birth defects that have recently been delineated, the Proteus syndrome (partial gigantism of hands or feet, hemihypertrophy, macrocephaly, linear papillomatous epidermal nevus, subcutaneous hemangiomas and lipomas, accelerated growth, and visceral anomalies), and the Delleman-Oorthuys syndrome (orbital cyst, porencephaly, periorbital appendages, and focal aplasia of the skin.

  15. Analyzing Right-Censored Length-Biased Data with Additive Hazards Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mu ZHAO; Cun-jie LIN; Yong ZHOU

    2017-01-01

    Length-biased data are often encountered in observational studies,when the survival times are left-truncated and right-censored and the truncation times follow a uniform distribution.In this article,we propose to analyze such data with the additive hazards model,which specifies that the hazard function is the sum of an arbitrary baseline hazard function and a regression function of covariates.We develop estimating equation approaches to estimate the regression parameters.The resultant estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal.Some simulation studies and a real data example are used to evaluate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators.

  16. Extremely halophilic archaea from ancient salt sediments and their possible survival in halite fluid inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan-Lotter, H.; Fendrihan, S.; Gerbl, F. W.; Dornmayr-Pfaffenhuemer, M.; Frethem, C.

    2008-09-01

    Halophilic archaebacteria (haloarchaea) thrive in environments with salt concentrations approaching saturation, such as natural brines, marine solar salterns and alkaline salt lakes; they have also been isolated from ancient subsurface salt sediments of great geological age (195-280 million years) and some of those strains were described as novel species (1). The cells survived perhaps while being enclosed within small fluid inclusions in the halite. The characterization of subsurface microbial life is of astrobiological relevance since extraterrestrial halite has been detected and since microbial life on Mars, if existent, may have retreated into the subsurface. We attempted to simulate the embedding process of extremely halophilic archaea and to analyse any cellular changes which might occur. When enclosing haloarchaea in laboratory grown halite, cells accumulated preferentially in fluid inclusions, as could be demonstrated by pre-staining with fluorescent dyes. With increased time of embedding, rod-shaped cells of Halobacterium salinarum strains were found to assume roundish morphologies. Upon dissolution of the salt crystals, these spheres were stable and viable for months when kept in buffers containing 4 M NaCl. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) following fixation with glutaraldehyde suggested a potentially gradual transformation from rods to spheres. This notion was supported by fluorescence microscopy of Halobacterium cells, following embedding in halite and staining with SYTO 9. One-dimensional protein patterns of rods and spheres, following SDS polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, were similar except that the S-layer protein appeared reduced by about 15 - 20 % in spheres. The reddish-orange pigmentation of spheres was much lighter compared to that of rod-shaped cells, suggesting lowered concentrations of carotenoids; this was confirmed by extraction and spectrometry of pigments. The data suggested that Halobacterium cells are capable of forming specific

  17. Regression models for the restricted residual mean life for right-censored and left-truncated data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortese, Giuliana; Holmboe, Stine A.; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The hazard ratios resulting from a Cox's regression hazards model are hard to interpret and to be converted into prolonged survival time. As the main goal is often to study survival functions, there is increasing interest in summary measures based on the survival function that are easier to inter......The hazard ratios resulting from a Cox's regression hazards model are hard to interpret and to be converted into prolonged survival time. As the main goal is often to study survival functions, there is increasing interest in summary measures based on the survival function that are easier...... to interpret than the hazard ratio; the residual mean time is an important example of those measures. However, because of the presence of right censoring, the tail of the survival distribution is often difficult to estimate correctly. Therefore, we consider the restricted residual mean time, which represents...... a partial area under the survival function, given any time horizon τ, and is interpreted as the residual life expectancy up to τ of a subject surviving up to time t. We present a class of regression models for this measure, based on weighted estimating equations and inverse probability of censoring weighted...

  18. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND LENGTH-BIASED SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Asgharian

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available When survival data are colleted as part of a prevalent cohort study, the recruited cases have already experienced their initiating event. These prevalent cases are then followed for a fixed period of time at the end of which the subjects will either have failed or have been censored. When interests lies in estimating the survival distribution, from onset, of subjects with the disease, one must take into account that the survival times of the cases in a prevalent cohort study are left truncated. When it is possible to assume that there has not been any epidemic of the disease over the past period of time that covers the onset times of the subjects, one may assume that the underlying incidence process that generates the initiating event times is a stationary Poisson process. Under such assumption, the survival times of the recruited subjects are called “lengthbiased”. I discuss the challenges one is faced with in analyzing these type of data. To address the theoretical aspects of the work, I present asymptotic results for the NPMLE of the length-biased as well as the unbiased survival distribution. I also discuss estimating the unbiased survival function using only the follow-up time. This addresses the case that the onset times are either unknown or known with uncertainty. Some of our most recent work and open questions will be presented. These include some aspects of analysis of covariates, strong approximation, functional LIL and density estimation under length-biased sampling with right censoring. The results will be illustrated with survival data from patients with dementia, collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA.

  19. Nitric oxide induces thioredoxin-1 nuclear translocation: Possible association with the p21Ras survival pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Roberto J.; Masutani, H.; Yodoi, J.; Debbas, V.; Laurindo, Francisco R.; Stern, A.; Monteiro, Hugo P.

    2006-01-01

    One of the major redox-regulating molecules with thiol reducing activity is thioredoxin-1 (TRX-1). TRX-1 is a multifunctional protein that exists in the extracellular millieu, cytoplasm, and nucleus, and has a distinct role in each environment. It is well known that TRX-1 promptly migrates to the nuclear compartment in cells exposed to oxidants. However, the intracellular location of TRX-1 in cells exposed to nitrosothiols has not been investigated. Here, we demonstrated that the exposure of HeLa cells to increasing concentrations of the nitrosothiol S-nitroso-N-acetylpenicillamine (SNAP) promoted TRX-1 nuclear accumulation. The SNAP-induced TRX-1 translocation to the nucleus was inhibited by FPTIII, a selective inhibitor of p21Ras. Furthermore, TRX-1 migration was attenuated in cells stably transfected with NO insensitive p21Ras (p21 RasC118S ). Downstream to p21Ras, the MAP Kinases ERK1/2 were activated by SNAP under conditions that promote TRX-1 nuclear translocation. Inhibition of MEK prevented SNAP-stimulated ERK1/2 activation and TRX-1 nuclear migration. In addition, cells treated with p21Ras or MEK inhibitor showed increased susceptibility to cell death induced by SNAP. In conclusion, our observations suggest that the nuclear translocation of TRX-1 is induced by SNAP involving p21Ras survival pathway

  20. Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin in malignant pleural mesothelioma: a possible guardian for long-term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zarogoulidis P

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Paul Zarogoulidis,1,2 Maria Mavroudi,1 Konstantinos Porpodis,1 Kalliopi Domvri,1 Antonios Sakkas,3 Nikolaos Machairiotis,1 Aikaterini Stylianaki,1 Anastasios Tsiotsios,1 Nikolaos Courcoutsakis,4 Konstantinos Zarogoulidis11Pulmonary Department-Oncology Unit, “G Papanikolaou” General Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece; 2Pulmonary Department-Interventional Unit, Ruhrland Klinik, University of Essen, Essen, Germany; 3Department of Pathology, “G Papanikolaou” General Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece; 4Department of Radiology, University General Hospital of Alexandroupolis, Democritus University of Thrace, Alexandroupolis, GreeceAbstract: Malignant pleural mesothelioma is a rare and aggressive malignancy of the pleura correlated with exposure to asbestos, with a medium survival of 11–12 months after diagnosis. A case of a 67-year-old male who had previously worked in the asbestos industry and is a current smoker is reported. The computed tomography evaluation revealed a right pleural mass with pleural thickening, and the pleural biopsy confirmed a diagnosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma. He was treated with chemotherapy consisting of etoposide, paclitaxel, and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin hydrochloride. After completion of chemotherapy, radiologic evaluation confirmed a reduction of pleural thickening and improvement in his symptoms. A complete presentation of each drug formulation and characteristics are also included in this paper. The patient’s follow-up is continuing, and computed tomography reveals stable disease 9 years after initial examination.Keywords: mesothelioma, asbestos, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin

  1. Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored competing risks data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Lu; Lin, Dan-Yu; Zeng, Donglin

    2017-09-01

    Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed directly but rather is known to lie in an interval between two examinations. We formulate the effects of possibly time-varying (external) covariates on the cumulative incidence or sub-distribution function of competing risks (i.e., the marginal probability of failure from a specific cause) through a broad class of semiparametric regression models that captures both proportional and non-proportional hazards structures for the sub-distribution. We allow each subject to have an arbitrary number of examinations and accommodate missing information on the cause of failure. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and devise a fast and stable EM-type algorithm for its computation. We then establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the resulting estimators for the regression parameters by appealing to modern empirical process theory. In addition, we show through extensive simulation studies that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. Finally, we provide an application to a study on HIV-1 infection with different viral subtypes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Analysis of elemental concentration censored distributions in breast malignant and breast benign neoplasm tissues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubala-Kukus, A.; Banas, D.; Braziewicz, J.; Gozdz, S.; Majewska, U.; Pajek, M.

    2007-01-01

    The total reflection X-ray fluorescence method was applied to study the trace element concentrations in human breast malignant and breast benign neoplasm tissues taken from the women who were patients of Holycross Cancer Centre in Kielce (Poland). These investigations were mainly focused on the development of new possibilities of cancer diagnosis and therapy monitoring. This systematic comparative study was based on relatively large (∼ 100) population studied, namely 26 samples of breast malignant and 68 samples of breast benign neoplasm tissues. The concentrations, being in the range from a few ppb to 0.1%, were determined for thirteen elements (from P to Pb). The results were carefully analysed to investigate the concentration distribution of trace elements in the studied samples. The measurements of concentration of trace elements by total reflection X-ray fluorescence were limited, however, by the detection limit of the method. It was observed that for more than 50% of elements determined, the concentrations were not measured in all samples. These incomplete measurements were treated within the statistical concept called left-random censoring and for the estimation of the mean value and median of censored concentration distributions, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used. For comparison of concentrations in two populations, the log-rank test was applied, which allows to compare the censored total reflection X-ray fluorescence data. Found statistically significant differences are discussed in more details. It is noted that described data analysis procedures should be the standard tool to analyze the censored concentrations of trace elements analysed by X-ray fluorescence methods

  3. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  4. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  5. Nonparametric autocovariance estimation from censored time series by Gaussian imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jung Wook; Genton, Marc G; Ghosh, Sujit K

    2009-02-01

    One of the most frequently used methods to model the autocovariance function of a second-order stationary time series is to use the parametric framework of autoregressive and moving average models developed by Box and Jenkins. However, such parametric models, though very flexible, may not always be adequate to model autocovariance functions with sharp changes. Furthermore, if the data do not follow the parametric model and are censored at a certain value, the estimation results may not be reliable. We develop a Gaussian imputation method to estimate an autocovariance structure via nonparametric estimation of the autocovariance function in order to address both censoring and incorrect model specification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique in terms of bias and efficiency with simulations under various rates of censoring and underlying models. We describe its application to a time series of silicon concentrations in the Arctic.

  6. Regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data in the presence of informative censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peijie; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo

    2016-12-01

    Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields such as demography, economics, medical research, and reliability and many inference procedures on them have been developed (Sun, 2006; Chen, Sun, and Peace, 2012). However, most of the existing approaches assume that the mechanism that yields interval censoring is independent of the failure time of interest and it is clear that this may not be true in practice (Zhang et al., 2007; Ma, Hu, and Sun, 2015). In this article, we consider regression analysis of case K interval-censored failure time data when the censoring mechanism may be related to the failure time of interest. For the problem, an estimated sieve maximum-likelihood approach is proposed for the data arising from the proportional hazards frailty model and for estimation, a two-step procedure is presented. In the addition, the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators of regression parameters are established and an extensive simulation study suggests that the method works well. Finally, we apply the method to a set of real interval-censored data that motivated this study. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Cordyceps militaris improves the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive hypertensive rats possibly via influences of mitochondria and autophagy functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kentaro Takakura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The genus Cordyceps and its specific ingredient, cordycepin, have attracted much attention for multiple health benefits and expectations for lifespan extension. We analyzed whether Cordyceps militaris (CM, which contains large amounts of cordycepin, can extend the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive rats, whose survival was reduced to ∼3 months via a high-salt diet. The survival of these life-shortened rats was extended significantly when supplemented with CM, possibly due to a minimization of the effects of stroke. Next, we analyzed the effect of CM on hypertension-sensitive organs, the central nervous systems (CNS, heart, kidney and liver of these rats. We attempted to ascertain how the organs were improved by CM, and we paid particular attention to mitochondria and autophagy functions. The following results were from CM-treated rats in comparison with control rats. Microscopically, CNS neurons, cardiomyocytes, glomerular podocytes, renal epithelial cells, and hepatocytes all were improved. However, immunoblot and immunohistochemical analysis showed that the expressions of mitochondria-related proteins, ATP synthase β subunit, SIRT3 and SOD2, and autophagy-related proteins, LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and cathepsin D all were reduced significantly in the CNS neurons, but increased significantly in the cells of the other three organs, although p62 was decreased in its expression in all the organs tested. Activity of Akt and mTOR was enhanced but that of AMPK was reduced in the CNS, while such kinase activity was completely the opposite in the other organs. Together, the influence of CM may differ between mitochondria and autophagy functioned between the two organ groups, as mitochondria and autophagy seemed to be repressed and promoted, respectively, in the CNS, while both mitochondria and autophagy were activated in the others. This could possibly be related to the steady or improved cellular activity in both the organs, which might result in the life

  8. Cordyceps militaris improves the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive hypertensive rats possibly via influences of mitochondria and autophagy functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takakura, Kentaro; Ito, Shogo; Sonoda, Junya; Tabata, Koji; Shiozaki, Motoko; Nagai, Kaoru; Shibata, Masahiro; Koike, Masato; Uchiyama, Yasuo; Gotow, Takahiro

    2017-11-01

    The genus Cordyceps and its specific ingredient, cordycepin, have attracted much attention for multiple health benefits and expectations for lifespan extension. We analyzed whether Cordyceps militaris (CM), which contains large amounts of cordycepin, can extend the survival of Dahl salt-sensitive rats, whose survival was reduced to ∼3 months via a high-salt diet. The survival of these life-shortened rats was extended significantly when supplemented with CM, possibly due to a minimization of the effects of stroke. Next, we analyzed the effect of CM on hypertension-sensitive organs, the central nervous systems (CNS), heart, kidney and liver of these rats. We attempted to ascertain how the organs were improved by CM, and we paid particular attention to mitochondria and autophagy functions. The following results were from CM-treated rats in comparison with control rats. Microscopically, CNS neurons, cardiomyocytes, glomerular podocytes, renal epithelial cells, and hepatocytes all were improved. However, immunoblot and immunohistochemical analysis showed that the expressions of mitochondria-related proteins, ATP synthase β subunit, SIRT3 and SOD2, and autophagy-related proteins, LC3-II/LC3-I ratio and cathepsin D all were reduced significantly in the CNS neurons, but increased significantly in the cells of the other three organs, although p62 was decreased in its expression in all the organs tested. Activity of Akt and mTOR was enhanced but that of AMPK was reduced in the CNS, while such kinase activity was completely the opposite in the other organs. Together, the influence of CM may differ between mitochondria and autophagy functioned between the two organ groups, as mitochondria and autophagy seemed to be repressed and promoted, respectively, in the CNS, while both mitochondria and autophagy were activated in the others. This could possibly be related to the steady or improved cellular activity in both the organs, which might result in the life extension of these

  9. Possible UIP pattern on high-resolution computed tomography is associated with better survival than definite UIP in IPF patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Tolle, Leslie B; Xia, Meng; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Nambiar, Anoop M; Schmidt, Shelley L; Lagstein, Amir; Myers, Jeffery L; Gross, Barry H; Kazerooni, Ella A; Sundaram, Baskaran; Chughtai, Aamer R; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2017-10-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrosing lung disease of unknown etiology. Inter-society consensus guidelines on IPF diagnosis and management outline radiologic patterns including definite usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), possible UIP, and inconsistent with UIP. We evaluate these diagnostic categories as prognostic markers among patients with IPF. Included subjects had biopsy-proven UIP, a multidisciplinary team diagnosis of IPF, and a baseline high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Thoracic radiologists assigned the radiologic pattern and documented the presence and extent of specific radiologic findings. The outcome of interest was lung transplant-free survival. IPF patients with a possible UIP pattern on HRCT had significantly longer Kaplan-Meier event-free survival compared to those with definite UIP pattern (5.21 and 3.57 years, respectively, p = 0.002). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for baseline age, gender, %-predicted FVC, and %-predicted DLCO via the GAP Stage, extent of fibrosis (via the traction bronchiectasis score) and ever-smoker status, possible UIP pattern on HRCT (versus definite UIP) was associated with reduced hazard of death or lung transplant (HR = 0.42, CI 95% 0.23-0.78, p = 0.006). Radiologic diagnosis categories outlined by inter-society consensus guidelines is a widely-reported and potentially useful prognostic marker in IPF patients, with possible UIP pattern on HRCT associated with a favorable prognosis compared to definite UIP pattern, after adjusting for relevant covariates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The liability threshold model for censored twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Klaus K.; Scheike, Thomas; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2016-01-01

    the disease thus still being at risk. Ignoring this right-censoring can lead to severely biased estimates. The classical liability threshold model can be extended with inverse probability of censoring weighting of complete observations. This leads to a flexible way of modelling twin concordance and obtaining...... studies of diseases, as a way of quantifying such genetic contribution. The endpoint in these studies are typically defined as occurrence of a disease versus death without the disease. However, a large fraction of the subjects may still be alive at the time of follow-up without having experienced...

  11. Estimation of uptake from censored urine excretion data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, J.W.; Birchall, A.

    1994-01-01

    The estimation of radionuclide uptake often involves consideration of measurements of urine excretion which may include some values reported as below the limit of detection (LOD). Data sets which contain below LOD data as well as positive results are known as censored data sets. A simple method which uses the information contained in censored data to estimate uptake is described. A Monte Carlo technique has been used to investigate the accuracy and the efficiency of the method using simulated data sets with increasing numbers of LOD data points. (author)

  12. LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL ESTİMATİON FOR RIGHT CENSORED DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersin Yılmaz

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, firstly we will define a right censored data. If we say shortly right-censored data is censoring values that above the exact line. This may be related with scaling device. And then  we will use response variable acquainted from right-censored explanatory variables. Then the linear regression model will be estimated. For censored data’s existence, Kaplan-Meier weights will be used for  the estimation of the model. With the weights regression model  will be consistent and unbiased with that.   And also there is a method for the censored data that is a semi parametric regression and this method also give  useful results  for censored data too. This study also might be useful for the health studies because of the censored data used in medical issues generally.

  13. Modelling Inverse Gaussian Data with Censored Response Values: EM versus MCMC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Sparks

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Low detection limits are common in measure environmental variables. Building models using data containing low or high detection limits without adjusting for the censoring produces biased models. This paper offers approaches to estimate an inverse Gaussian distribution when some of the data used are censored because of low or high detection limits. Adjustments for the censoring can be made if there is between 2% and 20% censoring using either the EM algorithm or MCMC. This paper compares these approaches.

  14. Failure-censored accelerated life test sampling plans for Weibull distribution under expected test time constraint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, D.S.; Chun, Y.R.; Kim, J.G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper considers the design of life-test sampling plans based on failure-censored accelerated life tests. The lifetime distribution of products is assumed to be Weibull with a scale parameter that is a log linear function of a (possibly transformed) stress. Two levels of stress higher than the use condition stress, high and low, are used. Sampling plans with equal expected test times at high and low test stresses which satisfy the producer's and consumer's risk requirements and minimize the asymptotic variance of the test statistic used to decide lot acceptability are obtained. The properties of the proposed life-test sampling plans are investigated

  15. India Edible Oil Consumption: A Censored Incomplete Demand Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Suwen; Mohanty, Samarendu; Welch, Mark

    2008-01-01

    A Censored Incomplete Demand System is applied to household expenditures for edible oil in India. The results show that edible peanut oil is still a luxury good in India, whereas expenditure elasticities for other edible oils are relatively low. The food habit, location, education of household heads, and other demographic variables have significant effects on the choice of edible oils.

  16. An imprecise Dirichlet model for Bayesian analysis of failure data including right-censored observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is intended to make researchers in reliability theory aware of a recently introduced Bayesian model with imprecise prior distributions for statistical inference on failure data, that can also be considered as a robust Bayesian model. The model consists of a multinomial distribution with Dirichlet priors, making the approach basically nonparametric. New results for the model are presented, related to right-censored observations, where estimation based on this model is closely related to the product-limit estimator, which is an important statistical method to deal with reliability or survival data including right-censored observations. As for the product-limit estimator, the model considered in this paper aims at not using any information other than that provided by observed data, but our model fits into the robust Bayesian context which has the advantage that all inferences can be based on probabilities or expectations, or bounds for probabilities or expectations. The model uses a finite partition of the time-axis, and as such it is also related to life-tables

  17. Passive sinking into the snow as possible survival strategy during the off-host stage in an insect ectoparasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaunisto, Sirpa; Ylonen, Hannu; Kortet, Raine

    2015-07-22

    Abiotic and biotic factors determine success or failure of individual organisms, populations and species. The early life stages are often the most vulnerable to heavy mortality due to environmental conditions. The deer ked (Lipoptena cervi Linnaeus, 1758) is an invasive insect ectoparasite of cervids that spends an important period of the life cycle outside host as immobile pupa. During winter, dark-coloured pupae drop off the host onto the snow, where they are exposed to environmental temperature variation and predation as long as the new snowfall provides shelter against these mortality factors. The other possible option is to passively sink into the snow, which is aided by morphology of pupae. Here, we experimentally studied passive snow sinking capacity of pupae of L. cervi. We show that pupae have a notable passive snow sinking capacity, which is the most likely explained by pupal morphology enabling solar energy absorption and pupal weight. The present results can be used when planning future studies and when evaluating possible predation risk and overall survival of this invasive ectoparasite species in changing environmental conditions.

  18. Biostatistics series module 9: Survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Survival analysis is concerned with “time to event“ data. Conventionally, it dealt with cancer death as the event in question, but it can handle any event occurring over a time frame, and this need not be always adverse in nature. When the outcome of a study is the time to an event, it is often not possible to wait until the event in question has happened to all the subjects, for example, until all are dead. In addition, subjects may leave the study prematurely. Such situations lead to what is called censored observations as complete information is not available for these subjects. The data set is thus an assemblage of times to the event in question and times after which no more information on the individual is available. Survival analysis methods are the only techniques capable of handling censored observations without treating them as missing data. They also make no assumption regarding normal distribution of time to event data. Descriptive methods for exploring survival times in a sample include life table and Kaplan–Meier techniques as well as various kinds of distribution fitting as advanced modeling techniques. The Kaplan–Meier cumulative survival probability over time plot has become the signature plot for biomedical survival analysis. Several techniques are available for comparing the survival experience in two or more groups – the log-rank test is popularly used. This test can also be used to produce an odds ratio as an estimate of risk of the event in the test group; this is called hazard ratio (HR. Limitations of the traditional log-rank test have led to various modifications and enhancements. Finally, survival analysis offers different regression models for estimating the impact of multiple predictors on survival. Cox's proportional hazard model is the most general of the regression methods that allows the hazard function to be modeled on a set of explanatory variables without making restrictive assumptions concerning the

  19. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  20. Nonparametric Analysis of Right Censored Data with Multiple Comparisons

    OpenAIRE

    Shih, Hwei-Weng

    1982-01-01

    This report demonstrates the use of a computer program written in FORTRAN for the Burroughs B6800 computer at Utah State University to perform Breslow's (1970) generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test for right censored data. A pairwise multiple comparison procedure using Bonferroni's inequality is also introduced and demonstrated. Comparisons are also made with a parametric F test and the original Kruskal-Wallis test. Application of these techniques to two data sets indicate that there is l...

  1. Nonparametric estimation for censored mixture data with application to the Cooperative Huntington’s Observational Research Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Garcia, Tanya P.; Ma, Yanyuan

    2012-01-01

    This work presents methods for estimating genotype-specific distributions from genetic epidemiology studies where the event times are subject to right censoring, the genotypes are not directly observed, and the data arise from a mixture of scientifically meaningful subpopulations. Examples of such studies include kin-cohort studies and quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies. Current methods for analyzing censored mixture data include two types of nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) which do not make parametric assumptions on the genotype-specific density functions. Although both NPMLEs are commonly used, we show that one is inefficient and the other inconsistent. To overcome these deficiencies, we propose three classes of consistent nonparametric estimators which do not assume parametric density models and are easy to implement. They are based on the inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and nonparametric imputation (IMP). The AIPW achieves the efficiency bound without additional modeling assumptions. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate satisfactory performance of these estimators even when the data are heavily censored. We apply these estimators to the Cooperative Huntington’s Observational Research Trial (COHORT), and provide age-specific estimates of the effect of mutation in the Huntington gene on mortality using a sample of family members. The close approximation of the estimated non-carrier survival rates to that of the U.S. population indicates small ascertainment bias in the COHORT family sample. Our analyses underscore an elevated risk of death in Huntington gene mutation carriers compared to non-carriers for a wide age range, and suggest that the mutation equally affects survival rates in both genders. The estimated survival rates are useful in genetic counseling for providing guidelines on interpreting the risk of death associated with a positive genetic testing, and in facilitating future subjects at risk

  2. Covariate analysis of bivariate survival data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, L.E.

    1992-01-01

    The methods developed are used to analyze the effects of covariates on bivariate survival data when censoring and ties are present. The proposed method provides models for bivariate survival data that include differential covariate effects and censored observations. The proposed models are based on an extension of the univariate Buckley-James estimators which replace censored data points by their expected values, conditional on the censoring time and the covariates. For the bivariate situation, it is necessary to determine the expectation of the failure times for one component conditional on the failure or censoring time of the other component. Two different methods have been developed to estimate these expectations. In the semiparametric approach these expectations are determined from a modification of Burke's estimate of the bivariate empirical survival function. In the parametric approach censored data points are also replaced by their conditional expected values where the expected values are determined from a specified parametric distribution. The model estimation will be based on the revised data set, comprised of uncensored components and expected values for the censored components. The variance-covariance matrix for the estimated covariate parameters has also been derived for both the semiparametric and parametric methods. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey was analyzed by these methods. The two outcome variables are post-partum amenorrhea and breastfeeding; education and parity were used as the covariates. Both the covariate parameter estimates and the variance-covariance estimates for the semiparametric and parametric models will be compared. In addition, a multivariate test statistic was used in the semiparametric model to examine contrasts. The significance of the statistic was determined from a bootstrap distribution of the test statistic.

  3. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

    2016-01-01

    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  4. On the censored cost-effectiveness analysis using copula information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Fontaine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Information and theory beyond copula concepts are essential to understand the dependence relationship between several marginal covariates distributions. In a therapeutic trial data scheme, most of the time, censoring occurs. That could lead to a biased interpretation of the dependence relationship between marginal distributions. Furthermore, it could result in a biased inference of the joint probability distribution function. A particular case is the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA, which has shown its utility in many medico-economic studies and where censoring often occurs. Methods This paper discusses a copula-based modeling of the joint density and an estimation method of the costs, and quality adjusted life years (QALY in a cost-effectiveness analysis in case of censoring. This method is not based on any linearity assumption on the inferred variables, but on a punctual estimation obtained from the marginal distributions together with their dependence link. Results Our results show that the proposed methodology keeps only the bias resulting statistical inference and don’t have anymore a bias based on a unverified linearity assumption. An acupuncture study for chronic headache in primary care was used to show the applicability of the method and the obtained ICER keeps in the confidence interval of the standard regression methodology. Conclusion For the cost-effectiveness literature, such a technique without any linearity assumption is a progress since it does not need the specification of a global linear regression model. Hence, the estimation of the a marginal distributions for each therapeutic arm, the concordance measures between these populations and the right copulas families is now sufficient to process to the whole CEA.

  5. Bayesian linear regression with skew-symmetric error distributions with applications to survival analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Rubio, Francisco J.; Genton, Marc G.

    2016-01-01

    are censored. The latter scenario is of interest in the context of accelerated failure time models, which are relevant in survival analysis. We present a simulation study that demonstrates good frequentist properties of the posterior credible intervals

  6. Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data

    KAUST Repository

    Tekwe, C. D.; Carroll, R. J.; Dabney, A. R.

    2012-01-01

    positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon

  7. On prognostic models, artificial intelligence and censored observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, S S; Hamilton, P W; Hughes, J G; Bell, D A

    2001-03-01

    The development of prognostic models for assisting medical practitioners with decision making is not a trivial task. Models need to possess a number of desirable characteristics and few, if any, current modelling approaches based on statistical or artificial intelligence can produce models that display all these characteristics. The inability of modelling techniques to provide truly useful models has led to interest in these models being purely academic in nature. This in turn has resulted in only a very small percentage of models that have been developed being deployed in practice. On the other hand, new modelling paradigms are being proposed continuously within the machine learning and statistical community and claims, often based on inadequate evaluation, being made on their superiority over traditional modelling methods. We believe that for new modelling approaches to deliver true net benefits over traditional techniques, an evaluation centric approach to their development is essential. In this paper we present such an evaluation centric approach to developing extensions to the basic k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) paradigm. We use standard statistical techniques to enhance the distance metric used and a framework based on evidence theory to obtain a prediction for the target example from the outcome of the retrieved exemplars. We refer to this new k-NN algorithm as Censored k-NN (Ck-NN). This reflects the enhancements made to k-NN that are aimed at providing a means for handling censored observations within k-NN.

  8. A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapetanakis, Venediktos; Matthews, Fiona E; van den Hout, Ardo

    2013-02-20

    This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Estimation of Panel Data Regression Models with Two-Sided Censoring or Truncation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alan, Sule; Honore, Bo E.; Hu, Luojia

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs estimators for panel data regression models with individual speci…fic heterogeneity and two–sided censoring and truncation. Following Powell (1986) the estimation strategy is based on moment conditions constructed from re–censored or re–truncated residuals. While these moment...

  10. Parametric statistical techniques for the comparative analysis of censored reliability data: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohoris, George A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper summarizes part of the work carried out to date on seeking analytical solutions to the two-sample problem with censored data in the context of reliability and maintenance optimization applications. For this purpose, parametric two-sample tests for failure and censored reliability data are introduced and their applicability/effectiveness in common engineering problems is reviewed

  11. Comparing survival curves using rank tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim

    1990-01-01

    Survival times of patients can be compared using rank tests in various experimental setups, including the two-sample case and the case of paired data. Attention is focussed on two frequently occurring complications in medical applications: censoring and tail alternatives. A review is given of the

  12. Applied survival analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  13. Possible natural hybridization of two morphologically distinct species of Acropora (Cnidaria, Scleractinia in the Pacific: fertilization and larval survival rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoko Isomura

    Full Text Available Natural hybridization of corals in the Indo-Pacific has been considered rather rare. However, field studies have observed many corals with intermediate interspecific or unusual morphologies. Given that the existence of F1 hybrids with intermediate interspecific morphologies has been proven in the Caribbean, hybrids may also inhabit the Indo-Pacific and occur more frequently than expected. In this study, we focused on two morphologically different species, Acropora florida and A. intermedia, and performed crossing experiments at Akajima Island, Japan. Results showed that these species could hybridize in both directions via eggs and sperm, but that fertilization rates significantly differed according to which species provided eggs. These results are similar to those reported from the Caribbean. Although all embryos developed normally to the planular larval stage, the developmental processes of some hybrid embryos were delayed by approximately 1 h compared with conspecific embryos, suggesting that fertilization occurred 1 h later in interspecific crosses than in intraspecific crosses. More successful hybridization could occur under conditions with low numbers of conspecific colonies. Additionally, a comparison of survival rates between hybrid and intraspecific larvae revealed that intra- and interspecific larvae produced from eggs of A. florida survived for significantly longer than those produced from eggs of A. intermedia. Considering these data, under specific conditions, hybrids can be expected to be produced and survive in nature in the Pacific. Furthermore, we identified one colony with intermediate morphology between A. florida and A. intermedia in the field. This colony was fertilized only by eggs of A. florida, with high fertilization rates, suggesting that this colony would be a hybrid of these two species and might be backcrossed.

  14. Sieve estimation in a Markov illness-death process under dual censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boruvka, Audrey; Cook, Richard J

    2016-04-01

    Semiparametric methods are well established for the analysis of a progressive Markov illness-death process observed up to a noninformative right censoring time. However, often the intermediate and terminal events are censored in different ways, leading to a dual censoring scheme. In such settings, unbiased estimation of the cumulative transition intensity functions cannot be achieved without some degree of smoothing. To overcome this problem, we develop a sieve maximum likelihood approach for inference on the hazard ratio. A simulation study shows that the sieve estimator offers improved finite-sample performance over common imputation-based alternatives and is robust to some forms of dependent censoring. The proposed method is illustrated using data from cancer trials. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Testing independence of bivariate interval-censored data using modified Kendall's tau statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yuneung; Lim, Johan; Park, DoHwan

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we study a nonparametric procedure to test independence of bivariate interval censored data; for both current status data (case 1 interval-censored data) and case 2 interval-censored data. To do it, we propose a score-based modification of the Kendall's tau statistic for bivariate interval-censored data. Our modification defines the Kendall's tau statistic with expected numbers of concordant and disconcordant pairs of data. The performance of the modified approach is illustrated by simulation studies and application to the AIDS study. We compare our method to alternative approaches such as the two-stage estimation method by Sun et al. (Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 2006) and the multiple imputation method by Betensky and Finkelstein (Statistics in Medicine, 1999b). © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Increased tolerance and resistance to virus infections: a possible factor in the survival of Varroa destructor-resistant honey bees (Apis mellifera.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Locke

    Full Text Available The honey bee ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has a world-wide distribution and inflicts more damage than all other known apicultural diseases. However, Varroa-induced colony mortality is more accurately a result of secondary virus infections vectored by the mite. This means that honey bee resistance to Varroa may include resistance or tolerance to virus infections. The aim of this study was to see if this is the case for a unique population of mite-resistant (MR European honey bees on the island of Gotland, Sweden. This population has survived uncontrolled mite infestation for over a decade, developing specific mite-related resistance traits to do so. Using RT-qPCR techniques, we monitored late season virus infections, Varroa mite infestation and honey bee colony population dynamics in the Gotland MR population and compared this to mite-susceptible (MS colonies in a close by apiary. From summer to autumn the deformed wing virus (DWV titres increased similarly between the MR and MS populations, while the black queen cell virus (BQCV and sacbrood virus (SBV titres decreased substantially in the MR population compared to the MS population by several orders of magnitude. The MR colonies all survived the following winter with high mite infestation, high DWV infection, small colony size and low proportions of autumn brood, while the MS colonies all perished. Possible explanations for these changes in virus titres and their relevance to Varroa resistance and colony winter survival are discussed.

  17. Censored Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression (Case Study: Neonatorum Tetanus Case in Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuli Rusdiana, Riza; Zain, Ismaini; Wulan Purnami, Santi

    2017-06-01

    Hurdle negative binomial model regression is a method that can be used for discreate dependent variable, excess zero and under- and overdispersion. It uses two parts approach. The first part estimates zero elements from dependent variable is zero hurdle model and the second part estimates not zero elements (non-negative integer) from dependent variable is called truncated negative binomial models. The discrete dependent variable in such cases is censored for some values. The type of censor that will be studied in this research is right censored. This study aims to obtain the parameter estimator hurdle negative binomial regression for right censored dependent variable. In the assessment of parameter estimation methods used Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). Hurdle negative binomial model regression for right censored dependent variable is applied on the number of neonatorum tetanus cases in Indonesia. The type data is count data which contains zero values in some observations and other variety value. This study also aims to obtain the parameter estimator and test statistic censored hurdle negative binomial model. Based on the regression results, the factors that influence neonatorum tetanus case in Indonesia is the percentage of baby health care coverage and neonatal visits.

  18. Semi-Markov models for interval censored transient cognitive states with back transitions and a competing risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Shaoceng; Kryscio, Richard J

    2016-12-01

    Continuous-time multi-state stochastic processes are useful for modeling the flow of subjects from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment and global impairment as intervening transient cognitive states and death as a competing risk. Each subject's cognition is assessed periodically resulting in interval censoring for the cognitive states while death without dementia is not interval censored. Since back transitions among the transient states are possible, Markov chains are often applied to this type of panel data. In this manuscript, we apply a semi-Markov process in which we assume that the waiting times are Weibull distributed except for transitions from the baseline state, which are exponentially distributed and in which we assume no additional changes in cognition occur between two assessments. We implement a quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method to calculate the higher order integration needed for likelihood estimation. We apply our model to a real dataset, the Nun Study, a cohort of 461 participants. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Is Support of Censoring Controversial Media Content for the Good of Others? Sexual Strategies and Support of Censoring Pro-Alcohol Advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang

    2017-01-01

    At least in the United States, there are widespread concerns with advertising that encourages alcohol consumption, and previous research explains those concerns as aiming to protect others from the harm of excessive alcohol use. 1 Drawing on sexual strategies theory, we hypothesized that support of censoring pro-alcohol advertising is ultimately self-benefiting regardless of its altruistic effect at a proximate level. Excessive drinking positively correlates with having casual sex, and casual sex threatens monogamy, one of the major means with which people adopting a long-term sexual strategy increase their inclusive fitness. Then, one way for long-term strategists to protect monogamy, and thus their reproductive interest is to support censoring pro-alcohol advertising, thereby preventing others from becoming excessive drinkers (and consequently having casual sex) under media influence. Supporting this hypothesis, three studies consistently showed that restricted sociosexuality positively correlated with support of censoring pro-alcohol advertising before and after various value-, ideological-, and moral-foundation variables were controlled for. Also as predicted, Study 3 revealed a significant indirect effect of sociosexuality on censorship support through perceived media influence on others but not through perceived media influence on self. These findings further supported a self-interest analysis of issue opinions, extended third-person-effect research on support of censoring pro-alcohol advertising, and suggested a novel approach to analyzing media censorship support.

  20. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  1. Modeling when people quit: Bayesian censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Kensuke; Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Lee, Michael D

    2018-02-01

    People often interact with environments that can provide only a finite number of items as resources. Eventually a book contains no more chapters, there are no more albums available from a band, and every Pokémon has been caught. When interacting with these sorts of environments, people either actively choose to quit collecting new items, or they are forced to quit when the items are exhausted. Modeling the distribution of how many items people collect before they quit involves untangling these two possibilities, We propose that censored geometric models are a useful basic technique for modeling the quitting distribution, and, show how, by implementing these models in a hierarchical and latent-mixture framework through Bayesian methods, they can be extended to capture the additional features of specific situations. We demonstrate this approach by developing and testing a series of models in two case studies involving real-world data. One case study deals with people choosing jokes from a recommender system, and the other deals with people completing items in a personality survey.

  2. Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

    2014-08-01

    We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.

  3. Censoring approach to the detection limits in X-ray fluorescence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pajek, M.; Kubala-Kukus, A.

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate that the effect of detection limits in the X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF), which limits the determination of very low concentrations of trace elements and results in appearance of the so-called 'nondetects', can be accounted for using the statistical concept of censoring. More precisely, the results of such measurements can be viewed as the left random censored data, which can further be analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method correcting the data for the presence of nondetects. Using this approach, the results of measured, detection limit censored concentrations can be interpreted in a nonparametric manner including the correction for the nondetects, i.e. the measurements in which the concentrations were found to be below the actual detection limits. Moreover, using the Monte Carlo simulation technique we show that by using the Kaplan-Meier approach the corrected mean concentrations for a population of the samples can be estimated within a few percent uncertainties with respect of the simulated, uncensored data. This practically means that the final uncertainties of estimated mean values are limited in fact by the number of studied samples and not by the correction procedure itself. The discussed random-left censoring approach was applied to analyze the XRF detection-limit-censored concentration measurements of trace elements in biomedical samples

  4. Statistical improvements in functional magnetic resonance imaging analyses produced by censoring high-motion data points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, Joshua S; Power, Jonathan D; Dubis, Joseph W; Vogel, Alecia C; Church, Jessica A; Schlaggar, Bradley L; Petersen, Steven E

    2014-05-01

    Subject motion degrades the quality of task functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Here, we test two classes of methods to counteract the effects of motion in task fMRI data: (1) a variety of motion regressions and (2) motion censoring ("motion scrubbing"). In motion regression, various regressors based on realignment estimates were included as nuisance regressors in general linear model (GLM) estimation. In motion censoring, volumes in which head motion exceeded a threshold were withheld from GLM estimation. The effects of each method were explored in several task fMRI data sets and compared using indicators of data quality and signal-to-noise ratio. Motion censoring decreased variance in parameter estimates within- and across-subjects, reduced residual error in GLM estimation, and increased the magnitude of statistical effects. Motion censoring performed better than all forms of motion regression and also performed well across a variety of parameter spaces, in GLMs with assumed or unassumed response shapes. We conclude that motion censoring improves the quality of task fMRI data and can be a valuable processing step in studies involving populations with even mild amounts of head movement. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Estimation of indirect effect when the mediator is a censored variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Shete, Sanjay

    2017-01-01

    A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects of an initial variable ( X) on an outcome variable ( Y) by including a mediator ( M). In many realistic scenarios, investigators observe censored data instead of the complete data. Current research in mediation analysis for censored data focuses mainly on censored outcomes, but not censored mediators. In this study, we proposed a strategy based on the accelerated failure time model and a multiple imputation approach. We adapted a measure of the indirect effect for the mediation model with a censored mediator, which can assess the indirect effect at both the group and individual levels. Based on simulation, we established the bias in the estimations of different paths (i.e. the effects of X on M [ a], of M on Y [ b] and of X on Y given mediator M [ c']) and indirect effects when analyzing the data using the existing approaches, including a naïve approach implemented in software such as Mplus, complete-case analysis, and the Tobit mediation model. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed strategy compared to that of the existing approaches. The proposed strategy accurately estimates the coefficients of different paths, indirect effects and percentages of the total effects mediated. We applied these mediation approaches to the study of SNPs, age at menopause and fasting glucose levels. Our results indicate that there is no indirect effect of association between SNPs and fasting glucose level that is mediated through the age at menopause.

  6. Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

    2017-07-30

    Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

    2017-01-01

    Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs ...

  8. A simulation study of likelihood inference procedures in rayleigh distribution with censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklizi, S. A.; Baker, H. M.

    2001-01-01

    Inference procedures based on the likelihood function are considered for the one parameter Rayleigh distribution with type1 and type 2 censored data. Using simulation techniques, the finite sample performances of the maximum likelihood estimator and the large sample likelihood interval estimation procedures based on the Wald, the Rao, and the likelihood ratio statistics are investigated. It appears that the maximum likelihood estimator is unbiased. The approximate variance estimates obtained from the asymptotic normal distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator are accurate under type 2 censored data while they tend to be smaller than the actual variances when considering type1 censored data of small size. It appears also that interval estimation based on the Wald and Rao statistics need much more sample size than interval estimation based on the likelihood ratio statistic to attain reasonable accuracy. (authors). 15 refs., 4 tabs

  9. Re-editing and Censoring of Detectors in Negative Selection Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.Z. Gao

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The Negative Selection Algorithm (NSA is a kind of novelty detection method inspired by the biological self/nonself discrimination principles. In this paper, we propose two new schemes for the detectors re-editing and censoring in the NSA. The detectors that fail to pass the negative selection phase are re-edited and updated to become qualified using the Differential Evolution (DE method. In the detectors censoring, the qualification of all the detectors is evaluated, and only those appropriate ones are retained. Prior knowledge of the anomalous data is utilized to discriminate the detectors so that their anomaly detection performances can be improved. The effectiveness of our detectors re-editing and censoring approaches is examined with both artificial signals and a practical bearings fault detection problem.

  10. Direct effects of HIV-1 Tat on excitability and survival of primary dorsal root ganglion neurons: possible contribution to HIV-1-associated pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianxun Chi

    Full Text Available The vast majority of people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 have pain syndrome, which has a significant impact on their quality of life. The underlying causes of HIV-1-associated pain are not likely attributable to direct viral infection of the nervous system due to the lack of evidence of neuronal infection by HIV-1. However, HIV-1 proteins are possibly involved as they have been implicated in neuronal damage and death. The current study assesses the direct effects of HIV-1 Tat, one of potent neurotoxic viral proteins released from HIV-1-infected cells, on the excitability and survival of rat primary dorsal root ganglion (DRG neurons. We demonstrated that HIV-1 Tat triggered rapid and sustained enhancement of the excitability of small-diameter rat primary DRG neurons, which was accompanied by marked reductions in the rheobase and resting membrane potential (RMP, and an increase in the resistance at threshold (R(Th. Such Tat-induced DRG hyperexcitability may be a consequence of the inhibition of cyclin-dependent kinase 5 (Cdk5 activity. Tat rapidly inhibited Cdk5 kinase activity and mRNA production, and roscovitine, a well-known Cdk5 inhibitor, induced a very similar pattern of DRG hyperexcitability. Indeed, pre-application of Tat prevented roscovitine from having additional effects on the RMP and action potentials (APs of DRGs. However, Tat-mediated actions on the rheobase and R(Th were accelerated by roscovitine. These results suggest that Tat-mediated changes in DRG excitability are partly facilitated by Cdk5 inhibition. In addition, Cdk5 is most abundant in DRG neurons and participates in the regulation of pain signaling. We also demonstrated that HIV-1 Tat markedly induced apoptosis of primary DRG neurons after exposure for longer than 48 h. Together, this work indicates that HIV-1 proteins are capable of producing pain signaling through direct actions on excitability and survival of sensory neurons.

  11. Semi-parametric proportional intensity models robustness for right-censored recurrent failure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, S.T. [College of Engineering, University of Oklahoma, 202 West Boyd St., Room 107, Norman, OK 73019 (United States); Landers, T.L. [College of Engineering, University of Oklahoma, 202 West Boyd St., Room 107, Norman, OK 73019 (United States)]. E-mail: landers@ou.edu; Rhoads, T.R. [College of Engineering, University of Oklahoma, 202 West Boyd St., Room 107, Norman, OK 73019 (United States)

    2005-10-01

    This paper reports the robustness of the four proportional intensity (PI) models: Prentice-Williams-Peterson-gap time (PWP-GT), PWP-total time (PWP-TT), Andersen-Gill (AG), and Wei-Lin-Weissfeld (WLW), for right-censored recurrent failure event data. The results are beneficial to practitioners in anticipating the more favorable engineering application domains and selecting appropriate PI models. The PWP-GT and AG prove to be models of choice over ranges of sample sizes, shape parameters, and censoring severity. At the smaller sample size (U=60), where there are 30 per class for a two-level covariate, the PWP-GT proves to perform well for moderate right-censoring (P {sub c}{<=}0.8), where 80% of the units have some censoring, and moderately decreasing, constant, and moderately increasing rates of occurrence of failures (power-law NHPP shape parameter in the range of 0.8{<=}{delta}{<=}1.8). For the large sample size (U=180), the PWP-GT performs well for severe right-censoring (0.8

    censoring, and moderately decreasing, constant, and moderately increasing rates of occurrence of failures (power-law NHPP shape parameter in the range of 0.8{<=}{delta}{<=}2.0). The AG model proves to outperform the PWP-TT and WLW for stationary processes (HPP) across a wide range of right-censorship (0.0{<=}P {sub c}{<=}1.0) and for sample sizes of 60 or more.

  12. Analyzing the changing gender wage gap based on multiply imputed right censored wages

    OpenAIRE

    Gartner, Hermann; Rässler, Susanne

    2005-01-01

    "In order to analyze the gender wage gap with the German IAB-employment register we have to solve the problem of censored wages at the upper limit of the social security system. We treat this problem as a missing data problem. We regard the missingness mechanism as not missing at random (NMAR, according to Little and Rubin, 1987, 2002) as well as missing by design. The censored wages are multiply imputed by draws of a random variable from a truncated distribution. The multiple imputation is b...

  13. Analyzing the changing gender wage gap based on multiply inputed right censored wages

    OpenAIRE

    Gartner, Hermann; Rässler, Susanne

    2005-01-01

    In order to analyze the gender wage gap with the German IAB-employment sample we have to solve the problem of censored wages at the upper limit of the social security system. We treat this problem as a missing data problem. We regard the missingness mechanism as not missing at random (NMAR, according to Little and Rubin, 1987, 2002) as well as missing by design. The censored wages are multiply imputed by draws of a random variable from a truncated distribution. The multiple imputation is base...

  14. Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalski, Amanda

    2016-01-02

    Efforts to control medical care costs depend critically on how individuals respond to prices. I estimate the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care using a censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator. CQIV allows estimates to vary across the conditional expenditure distribution, relaxes traditional censored model assumptions, and addresses endogeneity with an instrumental variable. My instrumental variable strategy uses a family member's injury to induce variation in an individual's own price. Across the conditional deciles of the expenditure distribution, I find elasticities that vary from -0.76 to -1.49, which are an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates.

  15. Note on a reformulation of the strong cosmic censor conjecture based on computability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Etesi, Gabor

    2002-12-12

    In this Letter we provide a reformulation of the strong cosmic censor conjecture taking into account recent results on Malament-Hogarth space-times. We claim that the strong version of the cosmic censor conjecture can be formulated by postulating that a physically reasonable space-time is either globally hyperbolic or possesses the Malament-Hogarth property. But it is known that a Malament-Hogarth space-time in principle is capable for performing non-Turing computations such as checking consistency of ZFC set theory. In this way we get an intimate conjectured link between the cosmic censorship scenario and computability theory.

  16. A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Subdistribution with Covariates-adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Peng; Eriksson, Frank; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight......With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution...... and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight...

  17. Regression analysis of censored data using pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K.; Parner, Erik T.

    2015-01-01

    competing risks, the restricted mean survival-time function, and the causespecific lost-lifetime function. The pseudo-observations can be used to assess the effects of covariates on their respective functions at different times by fitting generalized linear models to the pseudo-observations. The updated...

  18. Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jia, Xiang; Wang, Dong; Jiang, Ping; Guo, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on the reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring. In multiply Type-I censoring in this study, all units in the life testing experiment are terminated at different times. Reliability estimation with the maximum likelihood estimate of Weibull parameters is conducted. With the delta method and Fisher information, we propose a confidence interval for reliability and compare it with the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence interval. Furthermore, a scenario involving a few expert judgments of reliability is considered. A method is developed to generate extended estimations of reliability according to the original judgments and transform them to estimations of Weibull parameters. With Bayes theory and the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, a posterior sample is obtained to compute the Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the proposed confidence interval outperforms the bootstrap one. The Bayes estimate and credible interval for reliability are both satisfactory. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods. - Highlights: • We focus on reliability of Weibull distribution under multiply Type-I censoring. • The proposed confidence interval for the reliability is superior after comparison. • The Bayes estimates with a few expert judgements on reliability are satisfactory. • We specify the cases where the MLEs do not exist and present methods to remedy it. • The distribution of estimate of reliability should be used for accurate estimate.

  19. On precision of stochastic optimization based on estimates from censored data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 3 (2014), s. 297-309 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-14445S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : optimization * consistency * censored data Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/volf-0429210.pdf

  20. "Tropic of Cancer" and the Censors: A Case Study and Bibliographic Guide to the Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kincaid, Larry; Koger, Grove

    1997-01-01

    Traces the history of Henry Miller's novel "Tropic of Cancer"--censored in England and America for being too obscene--from its inception in 1932 to its vindication by the United States judicial system 30 years later. Also includes an annotated bibliography of related literature. (AEF)

  1. Strong Convergence Bound of the Pareto Index Estimator under Right Censoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zuoxiang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Let be a sequence of positive independent and identically distributed random variables with common Pareto-type distribution function as , where represents a slowly varying function at infinity. In this note we study the strong convergence bound of a kind of right censored Pareto index estimator under second-order regularly varying conditions.

  2. Censoring Data for Resistance Factor Calculations in Load and Resistance Factor Design: A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Evans; David W. Green

    2007-01-01

    Reliability estimates for the resistance distribution of wood product properties may be made from test data where all specimens are broken (full data sets) or by using data sets where information is obtained only from the weaker pieces in the distribution (censored data). Whereas considerable information exists on property estimation from full data sets, much less...

  3. Nonparametric estimation in an "illness-death" model when all transition times are interval censored

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Halina; Gerds, Thomas; Grøn, Randi

    2013-01-01

    We develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the parameters of an irreversible Markov chain on states {0,1,2} from the observations with interval censored times of 0 → 1, 0 → 2 and 1 → 2 transitions. The distinguishing aspect of the data is that, in addition to all transition times ...

  4. The image of the censor in a magazine caricature of Russia XIX – early XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena S. Sonina

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on a study of 17 thin illustrated humorous and satirical magazines and a number of several digests the author investigates about 30 cartoons of 1847-1917 years dedicated to the censor of the Russian Empire (in addition, selectively – censors France, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. The author isolates the main types depicted censors. More often the Russian censors were depicted in the form of an old woman, a functionary, in the form of "pointing finger" with the amplification means at hand – a red pencil, scissors and paint. The censor’s appearance transformed especially during the First Russian Revolution. The author analyzes the cartoons with a life-like portraits and abstract images of those who are professionally limited the freedom of the press. The censorship conditions (e.g. an urgency of the work or a depending on the political situation in the country are demonstrated. All of the examples noted the prevailing negative connotations of satirical images. Of the 30 cartoons only one picture presents a censor helping writers to pass a difficult way to the Temple of Literature (1847. All other images highlight of obstructive censor’s labor. It was difficult to publish a caricature of censorship and censorship. The article presents facts from the Russian State Historical Archive about mass prohibition satirical images. Painters invented the different tricks against the vigilant guards, but it did not help. At the end of the article author makes a conclusion about the inevitability of a small number of published satirical drawings by virtue of censorship illustrated periodicals.

  5. Censoring distances based on labeled cortical distance maps in cortical morphometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceyhan, Elvan; Nishino, Tomoyuki; Alexopolous, Dimitrios; Todd, Richard D; Botteron, Kelly N; Miller, Michael I; Ratnanather, J Tilak

    2013-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that shape differences in cortical structures may be manifested in neuropsychiatric disorders. Such morphometric differences can be measured by labeled cortical distance mapping (LCDM) which characterizes the morphometry of the laminar cortical mantle of cortical structures. LCDM data consist of signed/labeled distances of gray matter (GM) voxels with respect to GM/white matter (WM) surface. Volumes and other summary measures for each subject and the pooled distances can help determine the morphometric differences between diagnostic groups, however they do not reveal all the morphometric information contained in LCDM distances. To extract more information from LCDM data, censoring of the pooled distances is introduced for each diagnostic group where the range of LCDM distances is partitioned at a fixed increment size; and at each censoring step, the distances not exceeding the censoring distance are kept. Censored LCDM distances inherit the advantages of the pooled distances but also provide information about the location of morphometric differences which cannot be obtained from the pooled distances. However, at each step, the censored distances aggregate, which might confound the results. The influence of data aggregation is investigated with an extensive Monte Carlo simulation analysis and it is demonstrated that this influence is negligible. As an illustrative example, GM of ventral medial prefrontal cortices (VMPFCs) of subjects with major depressive disorder (MDD), subjects at high risk (HR) of MDD, and healthy control (Ctrl) subjects are used. A significant reduction in laminar thickness of the VMPFC in MDD and HR subjects is observed compared to Ctrl subjects. Moreover, the GM LCDM distances (i.e., locations with respect to the GM/WM surface) for which these differences start to occur are determined. The methodology is also applicable to LCDM-based morphometric measures of other cortical structures affected by disease.

  6. Censoring Distances Based on Labeled Cortical Distance Maps in Cortical Morphometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvan eCeyhan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available It has been demonstrated that shape differences are manifested in cortical structures due to neuropsychiatric disorders. Such morphometric differences can be measured by labeled cortical distance mapping (LCDM which characterizes the morphometry of the laminar cortical mantle of cortical structures. LCDM data consist of signed/labeled distances of gray matter (GM voxels with respect to GM/white matter (WM surface. Volumes and other summary measures for each subject and the pooled distances can help determine the morphometric differences between diagnostic groups, however they do not reveal all the morphometric information con-tained in LCDM distances. To extract more information from LCDM data, censoring of the pooled distances is introduced for each diagnostic group where the range of LCDM distances is partitioned at a fixed increment size; and at each censoring step, the distances not exceeding the censoring distance are kept. Censored LCDM distances inherit the advantages of the pooled distances but also provide information about the location of morphometric differences which cannot be obtained from the pooled distances. However, at each step, the censored distances aggregate, which might confound the results. The influence of data aggregation is investigated with an extensive Monte Carlo simulation analysis and it is demonstrated that this influence is negligible. As an illustrative example, GM of ventral medial prefrontal cortices (VMPFCs of subjects with major depressive disorder (MDD, subjects at high risk (HR of MDD, and healthy control (Ctrl subjects are used. A significant reduction in laminar thickness of the VMPFC in MDD and HR subjects is observed compared to Ctrl subjects. Moreover, the GM LCDM distances (i.e., locations with respect to the GM/WM surface for which these differences start to occur are determined. The methodology is also applicable to LCDM-based morphometric measures of other cortical structures affected by disease.

  7. Censoring: a new approach for detection limits in total-reflection X-ray fluorescence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pajek, M.; Kubala-Kukus, A.; Braziewicz, J.

    2004-01-01

    It is shown that the detection limits in the total-reflection X-ray fluorescence (TXRF), which restrict quantification of very low concentrations of trace elements in the samples, can be accounted for using the statistical concept of censoring. We demonstrate that the incomplete TXRF measurements containing the so-called 'nondetects', i.e. the non-measured concentrations falling below the detection limits and represented by the estimated detection limit values, can be viewed as the left random-censored data, which can be further analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method correcting for nondetects. Within this approach, which uses the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator to obtain the cumulative distribution function corrected for the nondetects, the mean value and median of the detection limit censored concentrations can be estimated in a non-parametric way. The Monte Carlo simulations performed show that the Kaplan-Meier approach yields highly accurate estimates for the mean and median concentrations, being within a few percent with respect to the simulated, uncensored data. This means that the uncertainties of KM estimated mean value and median are limited in fact only by the number of studied samples and not by the applied correction procedure for nondetects itself. On the other hand, it is observed that, in case when the concentration of a given element is not measured in all the samples, simple approaches to estimate a mean concentration value from the data yield erroneous, systematically biased results. The discussed random-left censoring approach was applied to analyze the TXRF detection-limit-censored concentration measurements of trace elements in biomedical samples. We emphasize that the Kaplan-Meier approach allows one to estimate the mean concentrations being substantially below the mean level of detection limits. Consequently, this approach gives a new access to lower the effective detection limits for TXRF method, which is of prime interest for

  8. Annotation, submission and screening of repetitive elements in Repbase: RepbaseSubmitter and Censor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hankus Lukasz

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Repbase is a reference database of eukaryotic repetitive DNA, which includes prototypic sequences of repeats and basic information described in annotations. Updating and maintenance of the database requires specialized tools, which we have created and made available for use with Repbase, and which may be useful as a template for other curated databases. Results We describe the software tools RepbaseSubmitter and Censor, which are designed to facilitate updating and screening the content of Repbase. RepbaseSubmitter is a java-based interface for formatting and annotating Repbase entries. It eliminates many common formatting errors, and automates actions such as calculation of sequence lengths and composition, thus facilitating curation of Repbase sequences. In addition, it has several features for predicting protein coding regions in sequences; searching and including Pubmed references in Repbase entries; and searching the NCBI taxonomy database for correct inclusion of species information and taxonomic position. Censor is a tool to rapidly identify repetitive elements by comparison to known repeats. It uses WU-BLAST for speed and sensitivity, and can conduct DNA-DNA, DNA-protein, or translated DNA-translated DNA searches of genomic sequence. Defragmented output includes a map of repeats present in the query sequence, with the options to report masked query sequence(s, repeat sequences found in the query, and alignments. Conclusion Censor and RepbaseSubmitter are available as both web-based services and downloadable versions. They can be found at http://www.girinst.org/repbase/submission.html (RepbaseSubmitter and http://www.girinst.org/censor/index.php (Censor.

  9. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  10. Adapting machine learning techniques to censored time-to-event health record data: A general-purpose approach using inverse probability of censoring weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vock, David M; Wolfson, Julian; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Adomavicius, Gediminas; Johnson, Paul E; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2016-06-01

    Models for predicting the probability of experiencing various health outcomes or adverse events over a certain time frame (e.g., having a heart attack in the next 5years) based on individual patient characteristics are important tools for managing patient care. Electronic health data (EHD) are appealing sources of training data because they provide access to large amounts of rich individual-level data from present-day patient populations. However, because EHD are derived by extracting information from administrative and clinical databases, some fraction of subjects will not be under observation for the entire time frame over which one wants to make predictions; this loss to follow-up is often due to disenrollment from the health system. For subjects without complete follow-up, whether or not they experienced the adverse event is unknown, and in statistical terms the event time is said to be right-censored. Most machine learning approaches to the problem have been relatively ad hoc; for example, common approaches for handling observations in which the event status is unknown include (1) discarding those observations, (2) treating them as non-events, (3) splitting those observations into two observations: one where the event occurs and one where the event does not. In this paper, we present a general-purpose approach to account for right-censored outcomes using inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). We illustrate how IPCW can easily be incorporated into a number of existing machine learning algorithms used to mine big health care data including Bayesian networks, k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, and generalized additive models. We then show that our approach leads to better calibrated predictions than the three ad hoc approaches when applied to predicting the 5-year risk of experiencing a cardiovascular adverse event, using EHD from a large U.S. Midwestern healthcare system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Post-processing of multi-model ensemble river discharge forecasts using censored EMOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

    2014-05-01

    When forecasting water levels and river discharge, ensemble weather forecasts are used as meteorological input to hydrologic process models. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the input ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the output ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, statistical post-processing is required in order to achieve calibrated and sharp predictions. Standard post-processing methods such as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) that have their origins in meteorological forecasting are now increasingly being used in hydrologic applications. Here we consider two sub-catchments of River Rhine, for which the forecasting system of the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) uses runoff data that are censored below predefined thresholds. To address this methodological challenge, we develop a censored EMOS method that is tailored to such data. The censored EMOS forecast distribution can be understood as a mixture of a point mass at the censoring threshold and a continuous part based on a truncated normal distribution. Parameter estimates of the censored EMOS model are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over the training dataset. Model fitting on Box-Cox transformed data allows us to take account of the positive skewness of river discharge distributions. In order to achieve realistic forecast scenarios over an entire range of lead-times, there is a need for multivariate extensions. To this end, we smooth the marginal parameter estimates over lead-times. In order to obtain realistic scenarios of discharge evolution over time, the marginal distributions have to be linked with each other. To this end, the multivariate dependence structure can either be adopted from the raw ensemble like in Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC), or be estimated from observations in a training period. The censored EMOS model has been applied to multi-model ensemble forecasts issued on a

  12. Quantifying Fire Cycle from Dendroecological Records Using Survival Analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Cyr

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying fire regimes in the boreal forest ecosystem is crucial for understanding the past and present dynamics, as well as for predicting its future dynamics. Survival analyses have often been used to estimate the fire cycle in eastern Canada because they make it possible to take into account the censored information that is made prevalent by the typically long fire return intervals and the limited scope of the dendroecological methods that are used to quantify them. Here, we assess how the true length of the fire cycle, the short-term temporal variations in fire activity, and the sampling effort affect the accuracy and precision of estimates obtained from two types of parametric survival models, the Weibull and the exponential models, and one non-parametric model obtained with the Cox regression. Then, we apply those results in a case area located in eastern Canada. Our simulation experiment confirms some documented concerns regarding the detrimental effects of temporal variations in fire activity on parametric estimation of the fire cycle. Cox regressions appear to provide the most accurate and robust estimator, being by far the least affected by temporal variations in fire activity. The Cox-based estimate of the fire cycle for the last 300 years in the case study area is 229 years (CI95: 162–407, compared with the likely overestimated 319 years obtained with the commonly used exponential model.

  13. Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

    2017-08-01

    In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

  14. On Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Left Censored Burr Type III Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navid Feroze

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Burr type III is an important distribution used to model the failure time data. The paper addresses the problem of estimation of parameters of the Burr type III distribution based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE when the samples are left censored. As the closed form expression for the MLEs of the parameters cannot be derived, the approximate solutions have been obtained through iterative procedures. An extensive simulation study has been carried out to investigate the performance of the estimators with respect to sample size, censoring rate and true parametric values. A real life example has also been presented. The study revealed that the proposed estimators are consistent and capable of providing efficient results under small to moderate samples.

  15. Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

    2017-12-01

    Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Strong Convergence Bound of the Pareto Index Estimator under Right Censoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Tao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Let {Xn,n≥1} be a sequence of positive independent and identically distributed random variables with common Pareto-type distribution function F(x=1−x−1/γlF(x as γ>0, where lF(x represents a slowly varying function at infinity. In this note we study the strong convergence bound of a kind of right censored Pareto index estimator under second-order regularly varying conditions.

  17. Kvalitative Interviews med D&I Censorer, Undervisere, Kandidater og Studerende

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodersen, Søsser; Lindegaard, Hanne

    2010-01-01

    Som en opfølgning på telefon surveys blev der i tredje fase af D&I evalueringen gennemført en række kvalitative interviews med udvalgte censorer, undervisere, kandidater og studerende. Formålet med de kvalitative interviews har været at undersøge om: - D&I studerende og kandidater gennem forløbet i...

  18. The Asymptotic Joint Distribution of Self-Normalized Censored Sums and Sums of Squares

    OpenAIRE

    Hahn, Marjorie G.; Kuelbs, Jim; Weiner, Daniel C.

    1990-01-01

    Empirical versions of appropriate centering and scale constants for random variables which can fail to have second or even first moments are obtainable in various ways via suitable modifications of the summands in the partial sum. This paper discusses a particular modification, called censoring (which is a kind of winsorization), where the (random) number of summands altered tends to infinity but the proportion altered tends to zero as the number of summands increases. Some analytic advantage...

  19. Citizens as Censors : Understanding the Limits of Free Speech in India

    OpenAIRE

    Tjäder, Henriette

    2016-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide an understanding of the phenomenon of citizen censorship in India and its implications for free speech. It is especially concerned with public protests where groups of citizens demand government action in order to ban or censor controversial material. These groups tend to invoke feelings of offense or hurt religious sentiments as a justification for restriction. The point of departure of this thesis is research on social movement outcomes and the history of Indian ...

  20. Using mi impute chained to fit ANCOVA models in randomized trials with censored dependent and independent variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Andreas; Rieckmann, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we illustrate how to use mi impute chained with intreg to fit an analysis of covariance analysis of censored and nondetectable immunological concentrations measured in a randomized pretest–posttest design.......In this article, we illustrate how to use mi impute chained with intreg to fit an analysis of covariance analysis of censored and nondetectable immunological concentrations measured in a randomized pretest–posttest design....

  1. Weighted Moments Estimators of the Parameters for the Extreme Value Distribution Based on the Multiply Type II Censored Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Wuu Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose the weighted moments estimators (WMEs of the location and scale parameters for the extreme value distribution based on the multiply type II censored sample. Simulated mean squared errors (MSEs of best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE and exact MSEs of WMEs are compared to study the behavior of different estimation methods. The results show the best estimator among the WMEs and BLUE under different combinations of censoring schemes.

  2. Small farmers and agricultural extension : surviving on a small farm in the Netherlands and possibilities for agricultural extension to reach a hard-to-reach category

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Somers, B.M.

    1991-01-01

    This dissertation reports the results of the research project "Employment in Agriculture and Extension". Primary aims of the project were: a) to identify categories of farmers who are homogeneous in their survival strategies and b) to indicate ways agricultural extension could help farmers

  3. Genistein, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, enhanced radiosensitivity in human esophageal cancer cell lines in vitro: Possible involvement of inhibition of survival signal transduction pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akimoto, Tetsuo; Nonaka, Tetsuo; Ishikawa, Hitoshi; Sakurai, Hideyuki; Saitoh, Jun-ichi; Takahashi, Takeo; Mitsuhashi, Norio

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: The effect of genistein, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, on radiosensitivity was examined, especially focusing on 'survival signal transduction pathways'. Methods and Materials: Two human esophageal squamous cell cancer cell lines, TE-1 (p53, mutant) and TE-2 (p53, wild), were used. Radiosensitivity was determined by clonogenic assay, and activation of survival signals was examined by Western blot. Results: Genistein (30 μM) greatly enhanced radiosensitivity in these cell lines by suppressing radiation-induced activation of survival signals, p42/p44 extracellular signal-regulated kinase and AKT/PKB. Significant increase in the percentage of apoptotic cells and increased poly[ADP-ribose] polymerase cleavage were observed in TE-2, but not in TE-1 even after combination of genistein with irradiation. In terms of changes in expression of p53-related proteins, increase in expression of Bax and decrease in that of Bcl-2 were observed in TE-2 but not in TE-1, suggesting that the main mode of cell death induced by genistein in a cell line with wild type p53 differed from that with mutant p53. Conclusions: This study suggested that survival signals, including p42/p44 ERK and AKT/PKB, may be involved in determining radiosensitivity, and genistein would be a potent therapeutic agent that has an enhancing effect on radiation

  4. Bias correction for the least squares estimator of Weibull shape parameter with complete and censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, L.F.; Xie, M.; Tang, L.C.

    2006-01-01

    Estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is important in reliability engineering. However, commonly used methods such as the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) are known to be biased. Bias correction methods for MLE have been studied in the literature. This paper investigates the methods for bias correction when model parameters are estimated with LSE based on probability plot. Weibull probability plot is very simple and commonly used by practitioners and hence such a study is useful. The bias of the LS shape parameter estimator for multiple censored data is also examined. It is found that the bias can be modeled as the function of the sample size and the censoring level, and is mainly dependent on the latter. A simple bias function is introduced and bias correcting formulas are proposed for both complete and censored data. Simulation results are also presented. The bias correction methods proposed are very easy to use and they can typically reduce the bias of the LSE of the shape parameter to less than half percent

  5. Estimation with Right-Censored Observations Under A Semi-Markov Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lihui; Hu, X Joan

    2013-06-01

    The semi-Markov process often provides a better framework than the classical Markov process for the analysis of events with multiple states. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the presence of right censoring, when the right end-point of the support of the censoring time is strictly less than the right end-point of the support of the semi-Markov kernel, the transition probability of the semi-Markov process is nonidentifiable, and the estimators proposed in the literature are inconsistent in general. We derive the set of all attainable values for the transition probability based on the censored data, and we propose a nonparametric inference procedure for the transition probability using this set. Second, the conventional approach to constructing confidence bands is not applicable for the semi-Markov kernel and the sojourn time distribution. We propose new perturbation resampling methods to construct these confidence bands. Different weights and transformations are explored in the construction. We use simulation to examine our proposals and illustrate them with hospitalization data from a recent cancer survivor study.

  6. Online Censoring for Large-Scale Regressions with Application to Streaming Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berberidis, Dimitris; Kekatos, Vassilis; Giannakis, Georgios B

    2016-08-01

    On par with data-intensive applications, the sheer size of modern linear regression problems creates an ever-growing demand for efficient solvers. Fortunately, a significant percentage of the data accrued can be omitted while maintaining a certain quality of statistical inference with an affordable computational budget. This work introduces means of identifying and omitting less informative observations in an online and data-adaptive fashion. Given streaming data, the related maximum-likelihood estimator is sequentially found using first- and second-order stochastic approximation algorithms. These schemes are well suited when data are inherently censored or when the aim is to save communication overhead in decentralized learning setups. In a different operational scenario, the task of joint censoring and estimation is put forth to solve large-scale linear regressions in a centralized setup. Novel online algorithms are developed enjoying simple closed-form updates and provable (non)asymptotic convergence guarantees. To attain desired censoring patterns and levels of dimensionality reduction, thresholding rules are investigated too. Numerical tests on real and synthetic datasets corroborate the efficacy of the proposed data-adaptive methods compared to data-agnostic random projection-based alternatives.

  7. Quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of joint models for longitudinal marker and time-to-event in presence of censoring and competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Paul; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Loubère, Lucie; Berr, Claudine; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2015-03-01

    Thanks to the growing interest in personalized medicine, joint modeling of longitudinal marker and time-to-event data has recently started to be used to derive dynamic individual risk predictions. Individual predictions are called dynamic because they are updated when information on the subject's health profile grows with time. We focus in this work on statistical methods for quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of this kind of prognostic models, accounting for right censoring and possibly competing events. Dynamic area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier Score (BS) are used to quantify predictive accuracy. Nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting is used to estimate dynamic curves of AUC and BS as functions of the time at which predictions are made. Asymptotic results are established and both pointwise confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands are derived. Tests are also proposed to compare the dynamic prediction accuracy curves of two prognostic models. The finite sample behavior of the inference procedures is assessed via simulations. We apply the proposed methodology to compare various prediction models using repeated measures of two psychometric tests to predict dementia in the elderly, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models are estimated on the French Paquid cohort and predictive accuracies are evaluated and compared on the French Three-City cohort. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Covariate-adjusted measures of discrimination for survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Ian R; Rapsomaniki, Eleni; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth

    2015-01-01

    by the study design (e.g. age and sex) influence discrimination and can make it difficult to compare model discrimination between studies. Although covariate adjustment is a standard procedure for quantifying disease-risk factor associations, there are no covariate adjustment methods for discrimination...... statistics in censored survival data. OBJECTIVE: To develop extensions of the C-index and D-index that describe the prognostic ability of a model adjusted for one or more covariate(s). METHOD: We define a covariate-adjusted C-index and D-index for censored survival data, propose several estimators......, and investigate their performance in simulation studies and in data from a large individual participant data meta-analysis, the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. RESULTS: The proposed methods perform well in simulations. In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration data, the age-adjusted C-index and D-index were...

  9. A High-Fat Diet Containing Lard Accelerates Prostate Cancer Progression and Reduces Survival Rate in Mice: Possible Contribution of Adipose Tissue-Derived Cytokines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Jin Cho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available To examine the effects of high-fat diet (HFD containing lard on prostate cancer development and progression and its underlying mechanisms, transgenic adenocarcinoma mouse prostate (TRAMP and TRAMP-C2 allograft models, as well as in vitro culture models, were employed. In TRAMP mice, HFD feeding increased the incidence of poorly differentiated carcinoma and decreased that of prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia in the dorsolateral lobes of the prostate, which was accompanied by increased expression of proteins associated with proliferation and angiogenesis. HFD feeding also led to increased metastasis and decreased survival rate in TRAMP mice. In the allograft model, HFD increased solid tumor growth, the expression of proteins related to proliferation/angiogenesis, the number of lipid vacuoles in tumor tissues, and levels of several cytokines in serum and adipose tissue. In vitro results revealed that adipose tissue-conditioned media from HFD-fed mice stimulated the proliferation and migration of prostate cancer cells and angiogenesis compared to those from control-diet-fed mice. These results indicate that the increase of adipose tissue-derived soluble factors by HFD feeding plays a role in the growth and metastasis of prostate cancer via endocrine and paracrine mechanisms. These results provide evidence that a HFD containing lard increases prostate cancer development and progression, thereby reducing the survival rate.

  10. Non-censored rib fracture data during frontal PMHS sled tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemper, Andrew R; Beeman, Stephanie M; Porta, David J; Duma, Stefan M

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to obtain non-censored rib fracture data due to three-point belt loading during dynamic frontal post-mortem human surrogate (PMHS) sled tests. The PMHS responses were then compared to matched tests performed using the Hybrid-III 50(th) percentile male ATD. Matched dynamic frontal sled tests were performed on two male PMHSs, which were approximately 50(th) percentile height and weight, and the Hybrid-III 50(th) percentile male ATD. The sled pulse was designed to match the vehicle acceleration of a standard sedan during a FMVSS-208 40 kph test. Each subject was restrained with a 4 kN load limiting, driver-side, three-point seatbelt. A 59-channel chestband, aligned at the nipple line, was used to quantify the chest contour, anterior-posterior sternum deflection, and maximum anterior-posterior chest deflection for all test subjects. The internal sternum deflection of the ATD was quantified with the sternum potentiometer. For the PMHS tests, a total of 23 single-axis strain gages were attached to the bony structures of the thorax, including the ribs, sternum, and clavicle. In order to create a non-censored data set, the time history of each strain gage was analyzed to determine the timing of each rib fracture and corresponding timing of each AIS level (AIS = 1, 2, 3, etc.) with respect to chest deflection. Peak sternum deflection for PMHS 1 and PMHS 2 were 48.7 mm (19.0%) and 36.7 mm (12.2%), respectively. The peak sternum deflection for the ATD was 20.8 mm when measured by the chest potentiometer and 34.4 mm (12.0%) when measured by the chestband. Although the measured ATD sternum deflections were found to be well below the current thoracic injury criterion (63 mm) specified for the ATD in FMVSS-208, both PMHSs sustained AIS 3+ thoracic injuries. For all subjects, the maximum chest deflection measured by the chestband occurred to the right of the sternum and was found to be 83.0 mm (36.0%) for PMHS 1, 60.6 mm (23.9%) for PMHS 2

  11. Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2017-09-30

    For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

  12. Semiparametric regression analysis of failure time data with dependent interval censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chyong-Mei; Shen, Pao-Sheng

    2017-09-20

    Interval-censored failure-time data arise when subjects are examined or observed periodically such that the failure time of interest is not examined exactly but only known to be bracketed between two adjacent observation times. The commonly used approaches assume that the examination times and the failure time are independent or conditionally independent given covariates. In many practical applications, patients who are already in poor health or have a weak immune system before treatment usually tend to visit physicians more often after treatment than those with better health or immune system. In this situation, the visiting rate is positively correlated with the risk of failure due to the health status, which results in dependent interval-censored data. While some measurable factors affecting health status such as age, gender, and physical symptom can be included in the covariates, some health-related latent variables cannot be observed or measured. To deal with dependent interval censoring involving unobserved latent variable, we characterize the visiting/examination process as recurrent event process and propose a joint frailty model to account for the association of the failure time and visiting process. A shared gamma frailty is incorporated into the Cox model and proportional intensity model for the failure time and visiting process, respectively, in a multiplicative way. We propose a semiparametric maximum likelihood approach for estimating model parameters and show the asymptotic properties, including consistency and weak convergence. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and a data set of bladder cancer is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Dose survival of G0 lymphocytes irradiated in vitro: A test for a possible population bias in the cohort of atomic-bomb survivors exposed to high doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Nori; Sposto, R.; Akiyama, Mitoshi.

    1993-04-01

    An in-vitro colony assay was employed for X-ray dose-survival studies of peripheral-blood lymphocytes from 117 Adult Health Study participants with Dosimetry System 1986 doses 10 values (the X-ray dose required to kill 90% of cells) for these two groups were 3.40 Gy (7.5%) and 3.34 Gy (7.8%), respectively. No statistically significant differences in their distributions were detected. In addition, neither sex nor age affected the in-vitro radiosensitivity of lymphocytes for either group or for all subjects combined. Therefore it was concluded that, as far as the G 0 -lymphocyte colony assay is concerned, there is no evidence for preferential loss of individuals with higher cellular radiosensitivity among the high-dose atomic bomb survivors. However, it should be noted that the interindividual variations in cellular radiosensitivity were not large compared with the experimental variations. Consequently, the above-mentioned results should be considered due to the small heterogeneity of lymphocyte radiosensitivity among the survivors. (J.P.N.)

  14. Comparing the sustainability of different action policy possibilities: application to the issue of both household survival and forest preservation in the corridor of Fianarantsoa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, C; Martin, S

    2013-10-01

    A sustainability issue for the rain forest in the corridor of Fianarantsoa (Madagascar) is to preserve the forest while ensuring the development of the local population. The aim of this paper is to determine whether the current situation is sustainable or not according to different action policy possibilities. We propose a general procedure based on viability analysis: Translation of sustainability issues into constraints on the system state; elaboration of a mathematical model of system evolution rules in the form of controlled dynamical system; computations of the viability kernels according to different action policy possibilities. Among control variables, we focus on monetary transfer. Without monetary transfer, we show that the current situation of the rain forest corridor is not sustainable in our mathematical modeling framework. We then estimate the minimal maximal amount per year necessary to make the current situation sustainable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Simple estimation procedures for regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data under the proportional hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianguo; Feng, Yanqin; Zhao, Hui

    2015-01-01

    Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields including epidemiological and medical studies as well as financial and sociological studies, and many authors have investigated their analysis (Sun, The statistical analysis of interval-censored failure time data, 2006; Zhang, Stat Modeling 9:321-343, 2009). In particular, a number of procedures have been developed for regression analysis of interval-censored data arising from the proportional hazards model (Finkelstein, Biometrics 42:845-854, 1986; Huang, Ann Stat 24:540-568, 1996; Pan, Biometrics 56:199-203, 2000). For most of these procedures, however, one drawback is that they involve estimation of both regression parameters and baseline cumulative hazard function. In this paper, we propose two simple estimation approaches that do not need estimation of the baseline cumulative hazard function. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates are given, and an extensive simulation study is conducted and indicates that they work well for practical situations.

  16. Automatic Censoring CFAR Detector Based on Ordered Data Difference for Low-Flying Helicopter Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Being equipped with a millimeter-wave radar allows a low-flying helicopter to sense the surroundings in real time, which significantly increases its safety. However, nonhomogeneous clutter environments, such as a multiple target situation and a clutter edge environment, can dramatically affect the radar signal detection performance. In order to improve the radar signal detection performance in nonhomogeneous clutter environments, this paper proposes a new automatic censored cell averaging CFAR detector. The proposed CFAR detector does not require any prior information about the background environment and uses the hypothesis test of the first-order difference (FOD result of ordered data to reject the unwanted samples in the reference window. After censoring the unwanted ranked cells, the remaining samples are combined to form an estimate of the background power level, thus getting better radar signal detection performance. The simulation results show that the FOD-CFAR detector provides low loss CFAR performance in a homogeneous environment and also performs robustly in nonhomogeneous environments. Furthermore, the measured results of a low-flying helicopter validate the basic performance of the proposed method.

  17. Automatic Censoring CFAR Detector Based on Ordered Data Difference for Low-Flying Helicopter Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wen; Huang, Yulin; Yang, Jianyu

    2016-01-01

    Being equipped with a millimeter-wave radar allows a low-flying helicopter to sense the surroundings in real time, which significantly increases its safety. However, nonhomogeneous clutter environments, such as a multiple target situation and a clutter edge environment, can dramatically affect the radar signal detection performance. In order to improve the radar signal detection performance in nonhomogeneous clutter environments, this paper proposes a new automatic censored cell averaging CFAR detector. The proposed CFAR detector does not require any prior information about the background environment and uses the hypothesis test of the first-order difference (FOD) result of ordered data to reject the unwanted samples in the reference window. After censoring the unwanted ranked cells, the remaining samples are combined to form an estimate of the background power level, thus getting better radar signal detection performance. The simulation results show that the FOD-CFAR detector provides low loss CFAR performance in a homogeneous environment and also performs robustly in nonhomogeneous environments. Furthermore, the measured results of a low-flying helicopter validate the basic performance of the proposed method. PMID:27399714

  18. Quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy for censored time-to-event data with competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Cai; Li, Liang

    2018-05-15

    This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver operating characteristics curve and the Brier score, in the context of competing risks. To address censoring, we propose a unified nonparametric estimation framework for both discrimination and calibration measures, by weighting the censored subjects with the conditional probability of the event of interest given the observed data. The proposed method can be extended to time-dependent predictive accuracy metrics constructed from a general class of loss functions. We apply the methodology to a data set from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic risk score in predicting end-stage renal disease, accounting for the competing risk of pre-end-stage renal disease death, and evaluate its numerical performance in extensive simulation studies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Estimating overall exposure effects for the clustered and censored outcome using random effect Tobit regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Griswold, Michael E

    2016-11-30

    The random effect Tobit model is a regression model that accommodates both left- and/or right-censoring and within-cluster dependence of the outcome variable. Regression coefficients of random effect Tobit models have conditional interpretations on a constructed latent dependent variable and do not provide inference of overall exposure effects on the original outcome scale. Marginalized random effects model (MREM) permits likelihood-based estimation of marginal mean parameters for the clustered data. For random effect Tobit models, we extend the MREM to marginalize over both the random effects and the normal space and boundary components of the censored response to estimate overall exposure effects at population level. We also extend the 'Average Predicted Value' method to estimate the model-predicted marginal means for each person under different exposure status in a designated reference group by integrating over the random effects and then use the calculated difference to assess the overall exposure effect. The maximum likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton optimization algorithm with Gauss-Hermite quadrature to approximate the integration of the random effects. We use these methods to carefully analyze two real datasets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Estimation of the inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively censored data: Comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musleh, Rola M.; Helu, Amal

    2014-01-01

    In this article we consider statistical inferences about the unknown parameters of the Inverse Weibull distribution based on progressively type-II censoring using classical and Bayesian procedures. For classical procedures we propose using the maximum likelihood; the least squares methods and the approximate maximum likelihood estimators. The Bayes estimators are obtained based on both the symmetric and asymmetric (Linex, General Entropy and Precautionary) loss functions. There are no explicit forms for the Bayes estimators, therefore, we propose Lindley's approximation method to compute the Bayes estimators. A comparison between these estimators is provided by using extensive simulation and three criteria, namely, Bias, mean squared error and Pitman nearness (PN) probability. It is concluded that the approximate Bayes estimators outperform the classical estimators most of the time. Real life data example is provided to illustrate our proposed estimators. - Highlights: • We consider progressively type-II censored data from the Inverse Weibull distribution (IW). • We derive MLEs, approximate MLEs, LS and Bayes estimate methods of scale and shape parameters of the IW. • Bayes estimator of shape parameter cannot be expressed in closed forms. • We suggest using Lindley's approximation. • We conclude that the Bayes estimates outperform the classical methods

  1. Modelling the failure risk for water supply networks with interval-censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Mora, B.; Debón, A.; Santamaría, C.; Carrión, A.

    2015-01-01

    In reliability, sometimes some failures are not observed at the exact moment of the occurrence. In that case it can be more convenient to approximate them by a time interval. In this study, we have used a generalized non-linear model developed for interval-censored data to treat the life time of a pipe from its time of installation until its failure. The aim of this analysis was to identify those network characteristics that may affect the risk of failure and we make an exhaustive validation of this analysis. The results indicated that certain characteristics of the network negatively affected the risk of failure of the pipe: an increase in the length and pressure of the pipes, a small diameter, some materials used in the manufacture of pipes and the traffic on the street where the pipes are located. Once the model has been correctly fitted to our data, we also provided simple tables that will allow companies to easily calculate the pipe's probability of failure in a future. - Highlights: • We model the first failure time in a water supply company from Spain. • We fit arbitrarily interval-censored data with a generalized non-linear model. • The results are validated. We provide simple tables to easily calculate probabilities of no failure at different times.

  2. The future of the indigenous freshwater crayfish Austropotamobius italicus in Basque Country streams: Is it possible to survive being an inconvenient species?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. García-Arberas

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The white-clawed freshwater crayfish Austropotamobius italicus is listed as “vulnerable” in the Spanish Red List of threatened species, but local legislation varies among Spanish regions. Thus, while in some places the species is classified as “in risk of extinction” and various plans of conservation and restoration have been implemented, in the Basque Country and other regions the species is not listed. The distribution of the white-clawed crayfish in the province of Biscay (Basque Country was studied from 1993 to 2007 at more than 600 sampling locations. Results show that 108 streams were inhabited by the native crayfish species A. italicus while 137 streams were inhabited by non-native signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus or red-swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii. The spread of non-native crayfish is not the only threat to the native species whose survival is also closely dependent on how watersheds are managed. Most A. italicus populations inhabit headwaters, where forestry activities are very important. The presence of native crayfish in heavily forested areas results in a conflict of interests and makes its conservation particularly difficult. We employed a SWOT analysis – an assessment and decision tool commonly used in marketing and business – to evaluate the situation of the native white-clawed crayfish in Biscay, a province characterized by very high demographic pressure. SWOT analysis has proved to be a useful diagnostic tool and can help develop better and more accurate management strategies for the conservation of native crayfish threatened by multiple stressors.

  3. Analysis of survival in breast cancer patients by using different parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enera Amran, Syahila; Asrul Afendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti

    2017-09-01

    In biomedical applications or clinical trials, right censoring was often arising when studying the time to event data. In this case, some individuals are still alive at the end of the study or lost to follow up at a certain time. It is an important issue to handle the censoring data in order to prevent any bias information in the analysis. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the right censoring data with three different parametric models; exponential model, Weibull model and log-logistic models. Data of breast cancer patients from Hospital Sultan Ismail, Johor Bahru from 30 December 2008 until 15 February 2017 was used in this study to illustrate the right censoring data. Besides, the covariates included in this study are the time of breast cancer infection patients survive t, age of each patients X1 and treatment given to the patients X2 . In order to determine the best parametric models in analysing survival of breast cancer patients, the performance of each model was compare based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood value using statistical software R. When analysing the breast cancer data, all three distributions were shown consistency of data with the line graph of cumulative hazard function resembles a straight line going through the origin. As the result, log-logistic model was the best fitted parametric model compared with exponential and Weibull model since it has the smallest value in AIC and BIC, also the biggest value in log-likelihood.

  4. Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Reto; Mayr, Georg J; Messner, Jakob W; Umlauf, Nikolaus; Zeileis, Achim

    2017-06-15

    Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.

  5. Accurate Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting in a Censored Classification Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian M.; Croonenbroeck, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important “stylized facts” or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium......-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more...... accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology....

  6. Bayesian Analysis of two Censored Shifted Gompertz Mixture Distributions using Informative and Noninformative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabassum Naz Sindhu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with Bayesian analysis of shifted Gompertz mixture model under type-I censored samples assuming both informative and noninformative priors. We have discussed the Bayesian estimation of parameters of shifted Gompertz mixture model under the uniform, and gamma priors assuming three loss functions. Further, some properties of the model with some graphs of the mixture density are discussed. These properties include Bayes estimators, posterior risks and reliability function under simulation scheme. Bayes estimates are obtained considering two cases: (a when the shape parameter is known and (b when all parameters are unknown. We analyzed some simulated sets in order to investigate the effect of prior belief, loss functions, and performance of the proposed set of estimators of the mixture model parameters.

  7. Fast iterative censoring CFAR algorithm for ship detection from SAR images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Dandan; Yue, Hui; Zhang, Yuan; Gao, Pengcheng

    2017-11-01

    Ship detection is one of the essential techniques for ship recognition from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. This paper presents a fast iterative detection procedure to eliminate the influence of target returns on the estimation of local sea clutter distributions for constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detectors. A fast block detector is first employed to extract potential target sub-images; and then, an iterative censoring CFAR algorithm is used to detect ship candidates from each target blocks adaptively and efficiently, where parallel detection is available, and statistical parameters of G0 distribution fitting local sea clutter well can be quickly estimated based on an integral image operator. Experimental results of TerraSAR-X images demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

  8. Bayesian Approach for Constant-Stress Accelerated Life Testing for Kumaraswamy Weibull Distribution with Censoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abeer Abd-Alla EL-Helbawy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The accelerated life tests provide quick information on the life time distributions by testing materials or products at higher than basic conditional levels of stress such as pressure, high temperature, vibration, voltage or load to induce failures. In this paper, the acceleration model assumed is log linear model. Constant stress tests are discussed based on Type I and Type II censoring. The Kumaraswmay Weibull distribution is used. The estimators of the parameters, reliability, hazard rate functions and p-th percentile at normal condition, low stress, and high stress are obtained. In addition, credible intervals for parameters of the models are constructed. Optimum test plan are designed. Some numerical studies are used to solve the complicated integrals such as Laplace and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

  9. Bayesian Approach for Constant-Stress Accelerated Life Testing for Kumaraswamy Weibull Distribution with Censoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abeer Abd-Alla EL-Helbawy

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The accelerated life tests provide quick information on the life time distributions by testing materials or products at higher than basic conditional levels of stress such as pressure, high temperature, vibration, voltage or load to induce failures. In this paper, the acceleration model assumed is log linear model. Constant stress tests are discussed based on Type I and Type II censoring. The Kumaraswmay Weibull distribution is used. The estimators of the parameters, reliability, hazard rate functions and p-th percentile at normal condition, low stress, and high stress are obtained. In addition, credible intervals for parameters of the models are constructed. Optimum test plan are designed. Some numerical studies are used to solve the complicated integrals such as Laplace and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

  10. Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

    2017-01-01

    The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Bivariate Left-Censored Bayesian Model for Predicting Exposure: Preliminary Analysis of Worker Exposure during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Caroline; Banerjee, Sudipto; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Stenzel, Mark R; Sandler, Dale P; Blair, Aaron; Engel, Lawrence S; Kwok, Richard K; Stewart, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caught fire and exploded, releasing almost 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the ensuing 3 months. Thousands of oil spill workers participated in the spill response and clean-up efforts. The GuLF STUDY being conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is an epidemiological study to investigate potential adverse health effects among these oil spill clean-up workers. Many volatile chemicals were released from the oil into the air, including total hydrocarbons (THC), which is a composite of the volatile components of oil including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and hexane (BTEXH). Our goal is to estimate exposure levels to these toxic chemicals for groups of oil spill workers in the study (hereafter called exposure groups, EGs) with likely comparable exposure distributions. A large number of air measurements were collected, but many EGs are characterized by datasets with a large percentage of censored measurements (below the analytic methods' limits of detection) and/or a limited number of measurements. We use THC for which there was less censoring to develop predictive linear models for specific BTEXH air exposures with higher degrees of censoring. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical linear model that allows us to predict, for different EGs simultaneously, exposure levels of a second chemical while accounting for censoring in both THC and the chemical of interest. We illustrate the methodology by estimating exposure levels for several EGs on the Development Driller III, a rig vessel charged with drilling one of the relief wells. The model provided credible estimates in this example for geometric means, arithmetic means, variances, correlations, and regression coefficients for each group. This approach should be considered when estimating exposures in situations when multiple chemicals are correlated and have varying degrees of censoring. © The Author 2017

  12. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-10-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

  13. Instrumental variable estimation in a survival context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Walter, Stefan; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2015-01-01

    for regression analysis in a survival context, primarily under an additive hazards model, for which we describe 2 simple methods for estimating causal effects. The first method is a straightforward 2-stage regression approach analogous to 2-stage least squares commonly used for IV analysis in linear regression....... The IV approach is very well developed in the context of linear regression and also for certain generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function. However, IV methods are not as well developed for regression analysis with a censored survival outcome. In this article, we develop the IV approach....... In this approach, the fitted value from a first-stage regression of the exposure on the IV is entered in place of the exposure in the second-stage hazard model to recover a valid estimate of the treatment effect of interest. The second method is a so-called control function approach, which entails adding...

  14. Statistical inference methods for two crossing survival curves: a comparison of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huimin; Han, Dong; Hou, Yawen; Chen, Huilin; Chen, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér-von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.

  15. A Bayesian Approach for Summarizing and Modeling Time-Series Exposure Data with Left Censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houseman, E Andres; Virji, M Abbas

    2017-08-01

    Direct reading instruments are valuable tools for measuring exposure as they provide real-time measurements for rapid decision making. However, their use is limited to general survey applications in part due to issues related to their performance. Moreover, statistical analysis of real-time data is complicated by autocorrelation among successive measurements, non-stationary time series, and the presence of left-censoring due to limit-of-detection (LOD). A Bayesian framework is proposed that accounts for non-stationary autocorrelation and LOD issues in exposure time-series data in order to model workplace factors that affect exposure and estimate summary statistics for tasks or other covariates of interest. A spline-based approach is used to model non-stationary autocorrelation with relatively few assumptions about autocorrelation structure. Left-censoring is addressed by integrating over the left tail of the distribution. The model is fit using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo within a Bayesian paradigm. The method can flexibly account for hierarchical relationships, random effects and fixed effects of covariates. The method is implemented using the rjags package in R, and is illustrated by applying it to real-time exposure data. Estimates for task means and covariates from the Bayesian model are compared to those from conventional frequentist models including linear regression, mixed-effects, and time-series models with different autocorrelation structures. Simulations studies are also conducted to evaluate method performance. Simulation studies with percent of measurements below the LOD ranging from 0 to 50% showed lowest root mean squared errors for task means and the least biased standard deviations from the Bayesian model compared to the frequentist models across all levels of LOD. In the application, task means from the Bayesian model were similar to means from the frequentist models, while the standard deviations were different. Parameter estimates for covariates

  16. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  17. Survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badwe, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

  18. The effect of hospital care on early survival after penetrating trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David E; Doolittle, Peter C; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

    2014-12-01

    The effectiveness of emergency medical interventions can be best evaluated using time-to-event statistical methods with time-varying covariates (TVC), but this approach is complicated by uncertainty about the actual times of death. We therefore sought to evaluate the effect of hospital intervention on mortality after penetrating trauma using a method that allowed for interval censoring of the precise times of death. Data on persons with penetrating trauma due to interpersonal assault were combined from the 2008 to 2010 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the 2004 to 2010 National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models for survival time (t SURV ) were estimated, with TVC assumed to have constant effects for specified time intervals following hospital arrival. The Weibull model was repeated with t SURV interval-censored to reflect uncertainty about the precise times of death, using an imputation method to accommodate interval censoring along with TVC. All models showed that mortality was increased by older age, female sex, firearm mechanism, and injuries involving the head/neck or trunk. Uncensored models showed a paradoxical increase in mortality associated with the first hour in a hospital. The interval-censored model showed that mortality was markedly reduced after admission to a hospital, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63, 0.73) during the first 30 min declining to a HR of 0.01 after 120 min. Admission to a verified level I trauma center (compared to other hospitals in the NTDB) was associated with a further reduction in mortality, with a HR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.82, 0.97). Time-to-event models with TVC and interval censoring can be used to estimate the effect of hospital care on early mortality after penetrating trauma or other acute medical conditions and could potentially be used for interhospital comparisons.

  19. A Simple Linear Regression Method for Quantitative Trait Loci Linkage Analysis With Censored Observations

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Carl A.; McRae, Allan F.; Visscher, Peter M.

    2006-01-01

    Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using...

  20. Statistical inference on censored data for targeted clinical trials under enrichment design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen-Fang; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Jen-Pei

    2013-01-01

    For the traditional clinical trials, inclusion and exclusion criteria are usually based on some clinical endpoints; the genetic or genomic variability of the trial participants are not totally utilized in the criteria. After completion of the human genome project, the disease targets at the molecular level can be identified and can be utilized for the treatment of diseases. However, the accuracy of diagnostic devices for identification of such molecular targets is usually not perfect. Some of the patients enrolled in targeted clinical trials with a positive result for the molecular target might not have the specific molecular targets. As a result, the treatment effect may be underestimated in the patient population truly with the molecular target. To resolve this issue, under the exponential distribution, we develop inferential procedures for the treatment effects of the targeted drug based on the censored endpoints in the patients truly with the molecular targets. Under an enrichment design, we propose using the expectation-maximization algorithm in conjunction with the bootstrap technique to incorporate the inaccuracy of the diagnostic device for detection of the molecular targets on the inference of the treatment effects. A simulation study was conducted to empirically investigate the performance of the proposed methods. Simulation results demonstrate that under the exponential distribution, the proposed estimator is nearly unbiased with adequate precision, and the confidence interval can provide adequate coverage probability. In addition, the proposed testing procedure can adequately control the size with sufficient power. On the other hand, when the proportional hazard assumption is violated, additional simulation studies show that the type I error rate is not controlled at the nominal level and is an increasing function of the positive predictive value. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  2. Backdating of events in electronic primary health care data: should one censor at the date of last data collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammon, Cormac J; Petersen, Irene

    2016-04-01

    Studies using primary care databases often censor follow-up at the date data are last collected from clinical computer systems (last collection date (LCD)). We explored whether this results in the selective exclusion of events entered in the electronic health records after their date of occurrence, that is, backdated events. We used data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN). Using two versions of the database, we identified events that were entered into a later (THIN14) but not an earlier version of the database (THIN13) and investigated how the number of entries changed as a function of time since LCD. Times between events and the dates they were recorded were plotted as a function of time since the LCD in an effort to determine appropriate points at which to censor follow-up. There were 356 million eligible events in THIN14 and 355 million eligible events in THIN13. When comparing the two data sets, the proportion of missing events in THIN13 was highest in the month prior to the LCD (9.6%), decreasing to 5.2% at 6 months and 3.4% at 12 months. The proportion of missing events was largest for events typically diagnosed in secondary care such as neoplasms (28% in the month prior to LCD) and negligible for events typically diagnosed in primary care such as respiratory events (2% in the month prior to LCD). Studies using primary care databases, particularly those investigating events typically diagnosed outside primary care, should censor follow-up prior to the LCD to avoid underestimation of event rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Genetic analysis of days from calving to first insemination and days open in Danish Holsteins using different models and censoring scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Y; Madsen, P; Labouriau, R

    2009-01-01

    that dealt with censored records in different ways: 1) a conventional linear model (LM) in which a penalty of 21 d was added to censored records; 2) a bivariate threshold-linear model (TLM), which included a threshold model for censoring status (0, 1) of the observations, and a linear model for ICF or DO...... without any penalty on censored records; 3) a right-censored linear model (CLM); 4) a Weibull proportional hazard model (SMW); and 5) a Cox proportional hazard model (SMC) constructed with piecewise constant baseline hazard function. The variance components for ICF and DO estimated from LM and TLM were...... similar, whereas CLM gave higher estimates of both additive genetic and residual components. Estimates of heritability from models LM, TLM, and CLM were very similar (0.102 to 0.108 for ICF, and 0.066 to 0.069 for DO). Heritabilities estimated using model SMW were 0.213 for ICF and 0.121 for DO...

  4. Two sample Bayesian prediction intervals for order statistics based on the inverse exponential-type distributions using right censored sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Mohie El-Din

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, two sample Bayesian prediction intervals for order statistics (OS are obtained. This prediction is based on a certain class of the inverse exponential-type distributions using a right censored sample. A general class of prior density functions is used and the predictive cumulative function is obtained in the two samples case. The class of the inverse exponential-type distributions includes several important distributions such the inverse Weibull distribution, the inverse Burr distribution, the loglogistic distribution, the inverse Pareto distribution and the inverse paralogistic distribution. Special cases of the inverse Weibull model such as the inverse exponential model and the inverse Rayleigh model are considered.

  5. Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shafiqur Rahman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive

  6. A new semi-supervised learning model combined with Cox and SP-AFT models in cancer survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Hua; Li, Zi-Na; Meng, De-Yu; Xia, Liang-Yong; Liang, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Gene selection is an attractive and important task in cancer survival analysis. Most existing supervised learning methods can only use the labeled biological data, while the censored data (weakly labeled data) far more than the labeled data are ignored in model building. Trying to utilize such information in the censored data, a semi-supervised learning framework (Cox-AFT model) combined with Cox proportional hazard (Cox) and accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used in cancer research, which has better performance than the single Cox or AFT model. This method, however, is easily affected by noise. To alleviate this problem, in this paper we combine the Cox-AFT model with self-paced learning (SPL) method to more effectively employ the information in the censored data in a self-learning way. SPL is a kind of reliable and stable learning mechanism, which is recently proposed for simulating the human learning process to help the AFT model automatically identify and include samples of high confidence into training, minimizing interference from high noise. Utilizing the SPL method produces two direct advantages: (1) The utilization of censored data is further promoted; (2) the noise delivered to the model is greatly decreased. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model compared to the traditional Cox-AFT model.

  7. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

  9. Trend analysis of the power law process using Expectation-Maximization algorithm for data censored by inspection intervals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taghipour, Sharareh; Banjevic, Dragan

    2011-01-01

    Trend analysis is a common statistical method used to investigate the operation and changes of a repairable system over time. This method takes historical failure data of a system or a group of similar systems and determines whether the recurrent failures exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend. Most trend analysis methods proposed in the literature assume that the failure times are known, so the failure data is statistically complete; however, in many situations, such as hidden failures, failure times are subject to censoring. In this paper we assume that the failure process of a group of similar independent repairable units follows a non-homogenous Poisson process with a power law intensity function. Moreover, the failure data are subject to left, interval and right censoring. The paper proposes using the likelihood ratio test to check for trends in the failure data. It uses the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the parameters, which maximize the data likelihood in the case of null and alternative hypotheses. A recursive procedure is used to solve the main technical problem of calculating the expected values in the Expectation step. The proposed method is applied to a hospital's maintenance data for trend analysis of the components of a general infusion pump.

  10. Dental Age Estimation (DAE): Data management for tooth development stages including the third molar. Appropriate censoring of Stage H, the final stage of tooth development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Graham J; McDonald, Fraser; Andiappan, Manoharan; Lucas, Victoria S

    2015-11-01

    The final stage of dental development of third molars is usually helpful to indicate whether or not a subject is aged over 18 years. A complexity is that the final stage of development is unlimited in its upper border. Investigators usually select an inappropriate upper age limit or censor point for this tooth development stage. The literature was searched for appropriate data sets for dental age estimation and those that provided the count (n), the mean (x¯), and the standard deviation (sd) for each of the tooth development stages. The Demirjian G and Demirjian H were used for this study. Upper and lower limits of the Stage G and Stage H data were calculated limiting the data to plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean. The upper border of Stage H was limited by appropriate censoring at the maximum value for Stage G. The maximum age at attainment from published data, for Stage H, ranged from 22.60 years to 34.50 years. These data were explored to demonstrate how censoring provides an estimate for the correct maximum age for the final stage of Stage H as 21.64 years for UK Caucasians. This study shows that confining the data array of individual tooth developments stages to ± 3sd provides a reliable and logical way of censoring the data for tooth development stages with a Normal distribution of data. For Stage H this is inappropriate as it is unbounded in its upper limit. The use of a censored data array for Stage H using Percentile values is appropriate. This increases the reliability of using third molar Stage H alone to determine whether or not an individual is over 18 years old. For Stage H, individual ancestral groups should be censored using the same technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  11. Survival rates and predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients in a Malaysian tertiary hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magaji, Bello Arkilla; Moy, Foong Ming; Roslani, April Camilla; Law, Chee Wei

    2017-05-18

    Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death globally. It is the second most common cancer among both males and females in Malaysia. The economic burden of colorectal cancer is likely to increase over time owing to its current trend and aging population. Cancer survival analysis is an essential indicator for early detection and improvement in cancer treatment. However, there was a scarcity of studies concerning survival of colorectal cancer patients as well as its predictors. Therefore, we aimed to determine the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates, compare survival rates among ethnic groups and determine the predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients. This was an ambidirectional cohort study conducted at the University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. All Malaysian citizens or permanent residents with histologically confirmed diagnosis of colorectal cancer seen at UMMC from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2010 were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical records. Patients were followed-up until death or censored at the end of the study (31st December 2010). Censored patients' vital status (whether alive or dead) were cross checked with the National Registration Department. Survival analyses at 1-, 3- and 5-year intervals were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used to compare the survival rates, while Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was carried out to determine the predictors of 5-year colorectal cancer survival. Among 1212 patients, the median survival for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers were 42.0, 42.0 and 41.0 months respectively; while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year relative survival rates ranged from 73.8 to 76.0%, 52.1 to 53.7% and 40.4 to 45.4% respectively. The Chinese patients had the lowest 5-year survival compared to Malay and Indian patients. Based on the 814

  12. Regression analysis of censored data using pseudo-observations: An update

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per Kragh; Parner, Erik Thorlund

    2015-01-01

    competing risks, the restricted mean survival-time function, and the cause-specific lost-lifetime function. The pseudo-observations can be used to assess the effects of covariates on their respective functions at different times by fitting generalized linear models to the pseudo-observations. The updated...

  13. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors......Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day...

  14. Kidney transplant survival in pediatric and young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acott Phil

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a perception that kidney transplant recipients transferred from pediatric centers to adult care have an increased risk of graft loss. It is not clear whether young adults transplanted in adult centers also suffer from high graft loss rates. Methods We examined death censored graft survival in 3 cohorts of young patients transplanted at a single center. Pediatric (PED patients transplanted at the pediatric center were compared to a cohort of young adults (YAD; age 18- Results In a multivariate Cox model for death-censored graft survival, PED survival was statistically similar to the YAD (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.44, 1.7, p = 0.66, however the ADL cohort (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25, 0.82, p = 0.009 demonstrated better survival. Admitted non-adherence rates were not different among cohorts. Patients were transferred within a narrow age window (18.6 ± 1.0 age in years but at a wide range of times from the date of transplantation (5.1 ± 3.5 years and with a wide range of graft function (serum creatinine 182 ± 81 μmol/L. Conclusions The perception that pediatric transfers do poorly reflects advanced graft dysfunction in some at the time of transfer. The evidence also suggests that it is not the transfer of care that is the critical issue but rather recipients, somewhere between the ages of 11-14 and 25, are a unique and vulnerable cohort. Effective strategies to improve outcomes across this age group need to be identified and applied consistently.

  15. Quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of joint models for longitudinal marker and time-to-event in presence of censoring and competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blanche, Paul; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Loubère, Lucie

    2015-01-01

    to quantify predictive accuracy. Nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting is used to estimate dynamic curves of AUC and BS as functions of the time at which predictions are made. Asymptotic results are established and both pointwise confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands...

  16. Box-Cox transformation of left-censored data with application to the analysis of coronary artery calcification and pharmacokinetic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Cong; Kronmal, Richard

    2004-12-15

    Box-Cox transformation is investigated for regression models for left-censored data. Examples are provided using coronary calcification data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and pharmacokinetic data of a nicotine nasal spray. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. PREFERENCE OF PRIOR FOR BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE MIXED BURR TYPE X DISTRIBUTION UNDER TYPE I CENSORED SAMPLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabassum Naz Sindhu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is concerned with the preference of prior for the Bayesian analysis of the shape parameter of the mixture of Burr type X distribution using the censored data. We modeled the heterogeneous population using two components mixture of the Burr type X distribution. A comprehensive simulation scheme, through probabilistic mixing, has been followed to highlight the properties and behavior of the estimates in terms of sample size, corresponding risks and the proportion of the component of the mixture. The Bayes estimators of the parameters have been evaluated under the assumption of informative and non-informative priors using symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. The model selection criterion for the preference of the prior has been introduced. The hazard rate function of the mixture distribution has been discussed. The Bayes estimates under exponential prior and precautionary loss function exhibit the minimum posterior risks with some exceptions.

  18. VICTOR BERGER’S DANGEROUS IDEAS: Censoring The Mail To Preserve National Security During World War I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M. Glende

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available During World War I, the postmaster general conducted a vigorous campaign to stop the distribution of radical periodicals. Victor L. Berger, the socialist publisher of the Milwaukee Leader in Wisconsin, was among the first targets. Without any court review, Berger was found in violation of the Espionage Act and the Leader’s second-class mailing privilege was revoked. As a result, mailing costs increased by a factor of seven, and circulation dropped by more than a third. Berger’s personal papers from this episode in administrative censorship only recently have become available to researchers. They reveal a principled and defiant publisher who argued he could be a critic and a patriot, and a local press contemptuous of Berger and fearful of the federal government, local censors, advertisers, and readers.

  19. Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

  20. Dental age assessment of adolescents and emerging adults in United Kingdom Caucasians using censored data for stage H of third molar roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonpitaksathit, Teelana; Hunt, Nigel; Roberts, Graham J; Petrie, Aviva; Lucas, Victoria S

    2011-10-01

    The root of the third permanent molar is the only dental structure that continues development after completion of growth of the second permanent molar. It is claimed that the lack of a clearly defined end point for completion of growth of the third permanent molar means that this tooth cannot be used for dental age assessment. The aim of this study was to estimate the mean age of attainment of the four stages (E, F, G, and H) of root development of the third molar. The way in which the end point of completion of stage H can be identified is described. A total of 1223 dental panoramic tomographs (DPTs) available in the archives of the Eastman Dental Hospital, London, were used for this study. The ages of the subjects ranged from 12.6 to 24.9 years with 63 per cent of the sample being female. Demirjan's tooth development stages (TDSs), for the first and second molars, were applied to the third molars by a single examiner. For each of stages E, F, and G and for stage H censored data, the mean ages of the males and females were compared, separately within each tooth morphology type using the two sample t-test (P ages of the upper and lower third molars on each side, separately for each gender. The mean age of attainment and the 99 per cent confidence interval (CI) for each TDS were calculated for each third molar. The final stage H data were appropriately censored to exclude data above the age of completion of root growth. The results showed that, for each gender, the age in years at which individuals attained each of the four TDSs was approximately normally distributed. The mean age for appropriately censored data was always lower than the corresponding mean age of the inappropriately censored data for stage H (male UR8 19.57, UL8 19.53, LL8 19.91, and LR8 20.02 and female UR8 20.08, UL8 20.13, LL8 20.78, and LR8 20.70). This inappropriately censored data overestimated the mean age for stage H. The appropriately censored data for the TDSs of the third molar may be

  1. Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baxevani, Anastassia; Lenzi, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques...

  2. Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Carroll, Raymond J; Dabney, Alan R

    2012-08-01

    Protein abundance in quantitative proteomics is often based on observed spectral features derived from liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) or LC-MS/MS experiments. Peak intensities are largely non-normal in distribution. Furthermore, LC-MS-based proteomics data frequently have large proportions of missing peak intensities due to censoring mechanisms on low-abundance spectral features. Recognizing that the observed peak intensities detected with the LC-MS method are all positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests, and the parametric survival model and accelerated failure time-model with log-normal, log-logistic and Weibull distributions were used to detect any differentially expressed proteins. The statistical operating characteristics of each method are explored using both real and simulated datasets. Survival methods generally have greater statistical power than standard differential expression methods when the proportion of missing protein level data is 5% or more. In particular, the AFT models we consider consistently achieve greater statistical power than standard testing procedures, with the discrepancy widening with increasing missingness in the proportions. The testing procedures discussed in this article can all be performed using readily available software such as R. The R codes are provided as supplemental materials. ctekwe@stat.tamu.edu.

  3. Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data

    KAUST Repository

    Tekwe, C. D.

    2012-05-24

    MOTIVATION: Protein abundance in quantitative proteomics is often based on observed spectral features derived from liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) or LC-MS/MS experiments. Peak intensities are largely non-normal in distribution. Furthermore, LC-MS-based proteomics data frequently have large proportions of missing peak intensities due to censoring mechanisms on low-abundance spectral features. Recognizing that the observed peak intensities detected with the LC-MS method are all positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests, and the parametric survival model and accelerated failure time-model with log-normal, log-logistic and Weibull distributions were used to detect any differentially expressed proteins. The statistical operating characteristics of each method are explored using both real and simulated datasets. RESULTS: Survival methods generally have greater statistical power than standard differential expression methods when the proportion of missing protein level data is 5% or more. In particular, the AFT models we consider consistently achieve greater statistical power than standard testing procedures, with the discrepancy widening with increasing missingness in the proportions. AVAILABILITY: The testing procedures discussed in this article can all be performed using readily available software such as R. The R codes are provided as supplemental materials. CONTACT: ctekwe@stat.tamu.edu.

  4. Factors influencing immediate post-release survival of spectacled eiders following surgical implantation of transmitters with percutaneous antennae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexson, Matthew G.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Spriggs, Maria; Myers, Gwen E.

    2014-01-01

    Surgically implanted transmitters are a common method for tracking animal movements. Immediately following surgical implantation, animals pass through a critical recovery phase when behaviors may deviate from normal and the likelihood of individual survival may be reduced. Therefore, data collected during this period may be censored to minimize bias introduced by surgery-related behaviors or mortality. However, immediate post-release mortalities negate a sampling effort and reduce the amount of data potentially collected after the censoring period. Wildlife biologists should employ methods to support an animal’s survival through this period, but factors contributing to immediate post-release survival have not been formally assessed. We evaluated factors that potentially influenced the immediate post-release survival of 56 spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) marked with coelomically implanted satellite transmitters with percutaneous antennae in northern Alaska in 2010 and 2011. We modeled survival through the first 14 days following release and assessed the relative importance and effect of 15 covariates hypothesized to influence survival during this immediate post-release period. Estimated daily survival rate increased over the duration of the immediate post-release period; the probability of mortality was greatest within the first 5 days following release. Our top-ranking model included the effect of 2 blood analytes, pH and hematocrit, measured prior to surgical implantation of a transmitter. We found a positive response to pH; eiders exhibiting acidemia (low pH) prior to surgery were less likely to survive the immediate post-release period. We found a curvilinear response to hematocrit; eiders exhibiting extremely low or high pre-surgery hematocrit were also less likely to survive the immediate post-release period. In the interest of maximizing the survival of marked birds following release, hematological data obtained prior to surgical implantation of

  5. Positive random variables with a discrete probability mass at the origin: Parameter estimation for left-censored samples with application to air quality monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gogolak, C.V.

    1986-11-01

    The concentration of a contaminant measured in a particular medium might be distributed as a positive random variable when it is present, but it may not always be present. If there is a level below which the concentration cannot be distinguished from zero by the analytical apparatus, a sample from such a population will be censored on the left. The presence of both zeros and positive values in the censored portion of such samples complicates the problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying positive random variable and the probability of a zero observation. Using the method of maximum likelihood, it is shown that the solution to this estimation problem reduces largely to that of estimating the parameters of the distribution truncated at the point of censorship. The maximum likelihood estimate of the proportion of zero values follows directly. The derivation of the maximum likelihood estimates for a lognormal population with zeros is given in detail, and the asymptotic properties of the estimates are examined. The estimation method was used to fit several different distributions to a set of severely censored 85 Kr monitoring data from six locations at the Savannah River Plant chemical separations facilities

  6. Multi-disease analysis of maternal antibody decay using non-linear mixed models accounting for censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeyvaerts, Nele; Leuridan, Elke; Faes, Christel; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel

    2015-09-10

    Biomedical studies often generate repeated measures of multiple outcomes on a set of subjects. It may be of interest to develop a biologically intuitive model for the joint evolution of these outcomes while assessing inter-subject heterogeneity. Even though it is common for biological processes to entail non-linear relationships, examples of multivariate non-linear mixed models (MNMMs) are still fairly rare. We contribute to this area by jointly analyzing the maternal antibody decay for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, allowing for a different non-linear decay model for each infectious disease. We present a general modeling framework to analyze multivariate non-linear longitudinal profiles subject to censoring, by combining multivariate random effects, non-linear growth and Tobit regression. We explore the hypothesis of a common infant-specific mechanism underlying maternal immunity using a pairwise correlated random-effects approach and evaluating different correlation matrix structures. The implied marginal correlation between maternal antibody levels is estimated using simulations. The mean duration of passive immunity was less than 4 months for all diseases with substantial heterogeneity between infants. The maternal antibody levels against rubella and varicella were found to be positively correlated, while little to no correlation could be inferred for the other disease pairs. For some pairs, computational issues occurred with increasing correlation matrix complexity, which underlines the importance of further developing estimation methods for MNMMs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Joint modelling of longitudinal outcome and interval-censored competing risk dropout in a schizophrenia clinical trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Rosenheck, Robert; Lin, Haiqun

    2011-01-01

    Summary The ‘Clinical antipsychotic trials in intervention effectiveness’ study, was designed to evaluate whether there were significant differences between several antipsychotic medications in effectiveness, tolerability, cost and quality of life of subjects with schizophrenia. Overall, 74 % of patients discontinued the study medication for various reasons before the end of 18 months in phase I of the study. When such a large percentage of study participants fail to complete the study schedule, it is not clear whether the apparent profile in effectiveness reflects genuine changes over time or is influenced by selection bias, with participants with worse (or better) outcome values being more likely to drop out or to discontinue. To assess the effect of dropouts for different reasons on inferences, we construct a joint model for the longitudinal outcome and cause-specific dropouts that allows for interval-censored dropout times. Incorporating the information regarding the cause of dropout improves inferences and provides better understanding of the association between cause-specific dropout and the outcome process. We use simulations to demonstrate the advantages of the joint modelling approach in terms of bias and efficiency. PMID:22468033

  8. Association Between Pretransplant Cancer and Survival in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahle, Dag Olav; Grotmol, Tom; Leivestad, Torbjørn; Hartmann, Anders; Midtvedt, Karsten; Reisæter, Anna V; Mjøen, Geir; Pihlstrøm, Hege K; Næss, Hege; Holdaas, Hallvard

    2017-10-01

    Kidney transplantation in recipients with a previous malignancy is often deferred 2 to 5 years after cancer treatment due to fear of cancer recurrence. In Norway, the required waiting period has been 1 year. We compared patient and graft survival of recipients with pretransplant cancer to the outcomes of matched recipients without such cancer (comparators) using Cox regression. From 1963 to 2010, 377 (6.4%) of 5867 recipients had a pretransplant cancer. During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 256 recipients died, 35 (13.7%) from recurrent cancer and 27 (10.5%) from de novo cancer. Uncensored and death-censored graft loss occurred in 263 and 46 recipients, respectively. All-cause mortality was similar as in comparators (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.20]; P = 0.40), death-censored graft loss was lower (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.47-0.84; P = 0.002), and uncensored graft loss was similar (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.12; P = 0.87). Cancer mortality was higher than in comparators (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.51-2.56; P cancer mortality or all-cause mortality (both P > 0.45). Results were similar within cancer subgroups, with most data in patients with a history of kidney cancer, prostate cancer, urothelial cancer, and skin squamous cell carcinoma. Kidney transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer had a similar overall patient and graft survival as recipients without such cancer. Cancer mortality was increased, particularly during the first 5 years after transplantation. A short waiting period was not associated with mortality.

  9. Surviving Sengstaken.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, S; Odulaja, A; Patel, S; Davenport, M; Ade-Ajayi, N

    2015-07-01

    To report the outcomes of children who underwent Sengstaken-Blakemore tube (SBT) insertion for life-threatening haemetemesis. Single institution retrospective review (1997-2012) of children managed with SBT insertion. Patient demographics, diagnosis and outcomes were noted. Data are expressed as median (range). 19 children [10 male, age 1 (0.4-16) yr] were identified; 18 had gastro-oesophageal varices and 1 aorto-oesophageal fistula. Varices were secondary to: biliary atresia (n=8), portal vein thrombosis (n=5), alpha-1-anti-trypsin deficiency (n=1), cystic fibrosis (n=1), intrahepatic cholestasis (n=1), sclerosing cholangitis (n=1) and nodular hyperplasia with arterio-portal shunt (n=1). Three children deteriorated rapidly and did not survive to have post-SBT endoscopy. The child with an aortooesophageal fistula underwent aortic stent insertion and subsequently oesophageal replacement. Complications included gastric mucosal ulceration (n=3, 16%), pressure necrosis at lips and cheeks (n=6, 31%) and SBT dislodgment (n=1, 6%). Six (31%) children died. The remaining 13 have been followed up for 62 (2-165) months; five required liver transplantation, two underwent a mesocaval shunt procedure and 6 have completed endoscopic variceal obliteration and are under surveillance. SBT can be an effective, albeit temporary, life-saving manoeuvre in children with catastrophic haematemesis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Surviving cyberwar

    CERN Document Server

    Stiennon, Richard

    2010-01-01

    This book examines in depth the major recent cyber attacks that have taken place around the world, discusses the implications of such attacks, and offers solutions to the vulnerabilities that made these attacks possible. Through investigations of the most significant and damaging cyber attacks, the author introduces the reader to cyberwar, outlines an effective defense against cyber threats, and explains how to prepare for future attacks.

  11. Self-force as a cosmic censor in the Kerr overspinning problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleoni, Marta; Barack, Leor; Shah, Abhay G.; van de Meent, Maarten

    2015-10-01

    It is known that a near-extremal Kerr black hole can be spun up beyond its extremal limit by capturing a test particle. Here we show that overspinning is always averted once backreaction from the particle's own gravity is properly taken into account. We focus on nonspinning, uncharged, massive particles thrown in along the equatorial plane and work in the first-order self-force approximation (i.e., we include all relevant corrections to the particle's acceleration through linear order in the ratio, assumed small, between the particle's energy and the black hole's mass). Our calculation is a numerical implementation of a recent analysis by two of us [Phys. Rev. D 91, 104024 (2015)], in which a necessary and sufficient "censorship" condition was formulated for the capture scenario, involving certain self-force quantities calculated on the one-parameter family of unstable circular geodesics in the extremal limit. The self-force information accounts both for radiative losses and for the finite-mass correction to the critical value of the impact parameter. Here we obtain the required self-force data and present strong evidence to suggest that captured particles never drive the black hole beyond its extremal limit. We show, however, that, within our first-order self-force approximation, it is possible to reach the extremal limit with a suitable choice of initial orbital parameters. To rule out such a possibility would require (currently unavailable) information about higher-order self-force corrections.

  12. Survivability Assessment: Modeling A Recovery Process

    OpenAIRE

    Paputungan, Irving Vitra; Abdullah, Azween

    2009-01-01

    Survivability is the ability of a system to continue operating, in a timely manner, in the presence ofattacks, failures, or accidents. Recovery in survivability is a process of a system to heal or recover from damageas early as possible to fulfill its mission as condition permit. In this paper, we show a preliminary recoverymodel to enhance the system survivability. The model focuses on how we preserve the system and resumes itscritical service under attacks as soon as possible.Keywords: surv...

  13. Regression analysis of longitudinal data with correlated censoring and observation times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; He, Xin; Wang, Haiying; Sun, Jianguo

    2016-07-01

    Longitudinal data occur in many fields such as the medical follow-up studies that involve repeated measurements. For their analysis, most existing approaches assume that the observation or follow-up times are independent of the response process either completely or given some covariates. In practice, it is apparent that this may not be true. In this paper, we present a joint analysis approach that allows the possible mutual correlations that can be characterized by time-dependent random effects. Estimating equations are developed for the parameter estimation and the resulted estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is assessed through a simulation study and an illustrative example from a skin cancer study is provided.

  14. Nuclear War Survival Skills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kearny, C.H.

    2002-06-24

    The purpose of this book is to provide Americans with information and instructions that will significantly increase their chances of surviving a possible nuclear attack. It brings together field-tested instructions that, if followed by a large fraction of Americans during a crisis that preceded an attack, could save millions of lives. The author is convinced that the vulnerability of our country to nuclear threat or attack must be reduced and that the wide dissemination of the information contained in this book would help achieve that objective of our overall defense strategy.

  15. Survival after blood transfusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Ahlgren, Martin; Rostgaard, Klaus

    2008-01-01

    of transfusion recipients in Denmark and Sweden followed for up to 20 years after their first blood transfusion. Main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,118,261 transfusion recipients were identified, of whom 62.0 percent were aged 65 years or older at the time of their first...... the SMR remained significantly 1.3-fold increased. CONCLUSION: The survival and relative mortality patterns among blood transfusion recipients were characterized with unprecedented detail and precision. Our results are relevant to assessments of the consequences of possible transfusion-transmitted disease...... as well as for cost-benefit estimation of new blood safety interventions....

  16. Error Analysis of Deep Sequencing of Phage Libraries: Peptides Censored in Sequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim L. Matochko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Next-generation sequencing techniques empower selection of ligands from phage-display libraries because they can detect low abundant clones and quantify changes in the copy numbers of clones without excessive selection rounds. Identification of errors in deep sequencing data is the most critical step in this process because these techniques have error rates >1%. Mechanisms that yield errors in Illumina and other techniques have been proposed, but no reports to date describe error analysis in phage libraries. Our paper focuses on error analysis of 7-mer peptide libraries sequenced by Illumina method. Low theoretical complexity of this phage library, as compared to complexity of long genetic reads and genomes, allowed us to describe this library using convenient linear vector and operator framework. We describe a phage library as N×1 frequency vector n=ni, where ni is the copy number of the ith sequence and N is the theoretical diversity, that is, the total number of all possible sequences. Any manipulation to the library is an operator acting on n. Selection, amplification, or sequencing could be described as a product of a N×N matrix and a stochastic sampling operator (Sa. The latter is a random diagonal matrix that describes sampling of a library. In this paper, we focus on the properties of Sa and use them to define the sequencing operator (Seq. Sequencing without any bias and errors is Seq=Sa IN, where IN is a N×N unity matrix. Any bias in sequencing changes IN to a nonunity matrix. We identified a diagonal censorship matrix (CEN, which describes elimination or statistically significant downsampling, of specific reads during the sequencing process.

  17. Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming; Long, Qi

    2016-09-01

    Prediction models for disease risk and prognosis play an important role in biomedical research, and evaluating their predictive accuracy in the presence of censored data is of substantial interest. The standard concordance (c) statistic has been extended to provide a summary measure of predictive accuracy for survival models. Motivated by a prostate cancer study, we address several issues associated with evaluating survival prediction models based on c-statistic with a focus on estimators using the technique of inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Compared to the existing work, we provide complete results on the asymptotic properties of the IPCW estimators under the assumption of coarsening at random (CAR), and propose a sensitivity analysis under the mechanism of noncoarsening at random (NCAR). In addition, we extend the IPCW approach as well as the sensitivity analysis to high-dimensional settings. The predictive accuracy of prediction models for cancer recurrence after prostatectomy is assessed by applying the proposed approaches. We find that the estimated predictive accuracy for the models in consideration is sensitive to NCAR assumption, and thus identify the best predictive model. Finally, we further evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in both settings of low-dimensional and high-dimensional data under CAR and NCAR through simulations. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Influence of socioeconomic status on allograft and patient survival following kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Frank L; O'Kelly, Patrick; Donohue, Fionnuala; ÓhAiseadha, Coilin; Haase, Trutz; Pratschke, Jonathan; deFreitas, Declan G; Johnson, Howard; Conlon, Peter J; O'Seaghdha, Conall M

    2015-06-01

    Whether socioeconomic status confers worse outcomes after kidney transplantation is unknown. Its influence on allograft and patient survival following kidney transplantation in Ireland was examined. A retrospective, observational cohort study of adult deceased-donor first kidney transplant recipients from 1990 to 2009 was performed. Those with a valid Irish postal address were assigned a socioeconomic status score based on the Pobal Hasse-Pratschke deprivation index and compared in quartiles. Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to investigate any significant association of socioeconomic status with patient and allograft outcomes. A total of 1944 eligible kidney transplant recipients were identified. The median follow-up time was 8.2 years (interquartile range 4.4-13.3 years). Socioeconomic status was not associated with uncensored or death-censored allograft survival (hazard ratio (HR) 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.00, P = 0.33 and HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, P = 0.37, respectively). Patient survival was not associated with socioeconomic status quartile (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.93-1.08, P = 0.88). There was no significant difference among quartiles for uncensored or death-censored allograft survival at 5 and 10 years. There was no socioeconomic disparity in allograft or patient outcomes following kidney transplantation, which may be partly attributable to the Irish healthcare model. This may give further impetus to calls in other jurisdictions for universal healthcare and medication coverage for kidney transplant recipients. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  19. Evaluating disease management program effectiveness: an introduction to survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L; Roberts, Nancy

    2004-01-01

    Currently, the most widely used method in the disease management industry for evaluating program effectiveness is the "total population approach." This model is a pretest-posttest design, with the most basic limitation being that without a control group, there may be sources of bias and/or competing extraneous confounding factors that offer plausible rationale explaining the change from baseline. Survival analysis allows for the inclusion of data from censored cases, those subjects who either "survived" the program without experiencing the event (e.g., achievement of target clinical levels, hospitalization) or left the program prematurely, due to disenrollement from the health plan or program, or were lost to follow-up. Additionally, independent variables may be included in the model to help explain the variability in the outcome measure. In order to maximize the potential of this statistical method, validity of the model and research design must be assured. This paper reviews survival analysis as an alternative, and more appropriate, approach to evaluating DM program effectiveness than the current total population approach.

  20. Searching for degenerate Higgs bosons a profile likelihood ratio method to test for mass-degenerate states in the presence of censored data and uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    David, André; Petrucciani, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Using the likelihood ratio test statistic, we present a method which can be employed to test the hypothesis of a single Higgs boson using the matrix of measured signal strengths. This method can be applied in the presence of censored data and takes into account uncertainties on the measurements. The p-value against the hypothesis of a single Higgs boson is defined from the expected distribution of the test statistic, generated using pseudo-experiments. The applicability of the likelihood-based test is demonstrated using numerical examples with uncertainties and missing matrix elements.

  1. Additive survival least square support vector machines: A simulation study and its application to cervical cancer prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khotimah, Chusnul; Purnami, Santi Wulan; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi; Chosuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Sriplung, Hutcha

    2017-11-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) has been widely applied for prediction in many fields. Recently, SVM is also developed for survival analysis. In this study, Additive Survival Least Square SVM (A-SURLSSVM) approach is used to analyze cervical cancer dataset and its performance is compared with the Cox model as a benchmark. The comparison is evaluated based on the prognostic index produced: concordance index (c-index), log rank, and hazard ratio. The higher prognostic index represents the better performance of the corresponding methods. This work also applied feature selection to choose important features using backward elimination technique based on the c-index criterion. The cervical cancer dataset consists of 172 patients. The empirical results show that nine out of the twelve features: age at marriage, age of first getting menstruation, age, parity, type of treatment, history of family planning, stadium, long-time of menstruation, and anemia status are selected as relevant features that affect the survival time of cervical cancer patients. In addition, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated through a simulation study with the different number of features and censoring percentages. Two out of three performance measures (c-index and hazard ratio) obtained from A-SURLSSVM consistently yield better results than the ones obtained from Cox model when it is applied on both simulated and cervical cancer data. Moreover, the simulation study showed that A-SURLSSVM performs better when the percentage of censoring data is small.

  2. Hypofractionated radiation therapy for invasive thyroid carcinoma in dogs: a retrospective analysis of survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brearley, M.J.; Hayes, A.M.; Murphy, S.

    1999-01-01

    Thirteen dogs with invasive thyroid carcinoma (WHO classification T2b or T3b) seen between January 1991 and October 1997 were treated by external beam Irradiation. Four once-weekly fractions of 9 gray of 4 MeV X-rays were administered. Four of the dogs died of progression of the primary disease and four from metastatic spread. Of the remaining dogs, three died of unrelated problems, although two were still alive at the time of the censor. Kaplan-Meier analysis of the survival time from first dose to death from either primary or metastatic disease gave a median survival time of 96 weeks (mean 85 weeks, range six to 247 weeks). Radiographic evidence of pulmonary metastatic disease at presentation had no prognostic value whereas crude growth rate was a highly significant factor. The present series Indicates that radiation therapy should be considered an important modality for the control of invasive thyroid carcinoma in the dog

  3. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  4. Flexible Modeling of Survival Data with Covariates Subject to Detection Limits via Multiple Imputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Paul W; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhang, Daowen

    2014-01-01

    Models for survival data generally assume that covariates are fully observed. However, in medical studies it is not uncommon for biomarkers to be censored at known detection limits. A computationally-efficient multiple imputation procedure for modeling survival data with covariates subject to detection limits is proposed. This procedure is developed in the context of an accelerated failure time model with a flexible seminonparametric error distribution. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the multiple imputation estimator are established and a consistent variance estimator is provided. An iterative version of the proposed multiple imputation algorithm that approximates the EM algorithm for maximum likelihood is also suggested. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed multiple imputation methods work well while alternative methods lead to estimates that are either biased or more variable. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the dataset from a recently-conducted GenIMS study.

  5. Polarized electrogowdy spacetimes censored

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nungesser, Ernesto

    2010-01-01

    A sketch of the proof of strong cosmic censorship is presented for a class of solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell equations, those with polarized Gowdy symmetry. A key element of the argument is the observation that by means of a suitable choice of variables the central equations in this problem can be written in a form where they are identical to the central equations for general (i.e. non-polarized) vacuum Gowdy spacetimes. Using this it is seen that the results of Ringstroem on strong cosmic censorship in the vacuum case have implications for the Einstein-Maxwell case. Working out the geometrical meaning of these analytical results leads to the main conclusion.

  6. Polarized electrogowdy spacetimes censored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nungesser, Ernesto, E-mail: ernesto.nungesser@aei.mpg.d [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Gravitationsphysik, Albert-Einstein-Institut, Am Muehlenberg 1, 14476 Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-05-01

    A sketch of the proof of strong cosmic censorship is presented for a class of solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell equations, those with polarized Gowdy symmetry. A key element of the argument is the observation that by means of a suitable choice of variables the central equations in this problem can be written in a form where they are identical to the central equations for general (i.e. non-polarized) vacuum Gowdy spacetimes. Using this it is seen that the results of Ringstroem on strong cosmic censorship in the vacuum case have implications for the Einstein-Maxwell case. Working out the geometrical meaning of these analytical results leads to the main conclusion.

  7. Comparison of hypertabastic survival model with other unimodal hazard rate functions using a goodness-of-fit test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahir, M Ramzan; Tran, Quang X; Nikulin, Mikhail S

    2017-05-30

    We studied the problem of testing a hypothesized distribution in survival regression models when the data is right censored and survival times are influenced by covariates. A modified chi-squared type test, known as Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic, is applied for the comparison of accelerated failure time models. This statistic is used to test the goodness-of-fit for hypertabastic survival model and four other unimodal hazard rate functions. The results of simulation study showed that the hypertabastic distribution can be used as an alternative to log-logistic and log-normal distribution. In statistical modeling, because of its flexible shape of hazard functions, this distribution can also be used as a competitor of Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions. The results for the real data application are shown. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. A consistent NPMLE of the joint distribution function with competing risks data under the dependent masking and right-censoring model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiahui; Yu, Qiqing

    2016-01-01

    Dinse (Biometrics, 38:417-431, 1982) provides a special type of right-censored and masked competing risks data and proposes a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and a pseudo MLE of the joint distribution function [Formula: see text] with such data. However, their asymptotic properties have not been studied so far. Under the extention of either the conditional masking probability (CMP) model or the random partition masking (RPM) model (Yu and Li, J Nonparametr Stat 24:753-764, 2012), we show that (1) Dinse's estimators are consistent if [Formula: see text] takes on finitely many values and each point in the support set of [Formula: see text] can be observed; (2) if the failure time is continuous, the NPMLE is not uniquely determined, and the standard approach (which puts weights only on one element in each observed set) leads to an inconsistent NPMLE; (3) in general, Dinse's estimators are not consistent even under the discrete assumption; (4) we construct a consistent NPMLE. The consistency is given under a new model called dependent masking and right-censoring model. The CMP model and the RPM model are indeed special cases of the new model. We compare our estimator to Dinse's estimators through simulation and real data. Simulation study indicates that the consistent NPMLE is a good approximation to the underlying distribution for moderate sample sizes.

  9. Thermal Cycling Life Prediction of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu Solder Joint Using Type-I Censored Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhua Mi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Because solder joint interconnections are the weaknesses of microelectronic packaging, their reliability has great influence on the reliability of the entire packaging structure. Based on an accelerated life test the reliability assessment and life prediction of lead-free solder joints using Weibull distribution are investigated. The type-I interval censored lifetime data were collected from a thermal cycling test, which was implemented on microelectronic packaging with lead-free ball grid array (BGA and fine-pitch ball grid array (FBGA interconnection structures. The number of cycles to failure of lead-free solder joints is predicted by using a modified Engelmaier fatigue life model and a type-I censored data processing method. Then, the Pan model is employed to calculate the acceleration factor of this test. A comparison of life predictions between the proposed method and the ones calculated directly by Matlab and Minitab is conducted to demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. At last, failure analysis and microstructure evolution of lead-free solders are carried out to provide useful guidance for the regular maintenance, replacement of substructure, and subsequent processing of electronic products.

  10. Nuclear war survival skills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kearney, C.H.

    1979-09-01

    This book includes chapters on psychological preparations, warning and communications, and evacuation. It describes the building of expedient shelters, their ventilation and cooling, the purification and storage of adequate water, the processing and cooking of whole grains and legumes, fallout meters, protection against fires and carbon monoxide, and expedient furnishings for shelters. Other chapters cover sanitation and preventive medicine, medical advice for nuclear survivors lacking the help of doctors, improvised footwear and clothing, and advice on minimum preparations that can be made at low cost and should be made before a crisis arises. One appendix of the handbook gives detailed, field-tested instructions for building six types of earth-covered expedient fallout shelters, with criteria to guide the choice of which shelter to build. Others contain instructions for making an efficient shelter-ventilating pump and a homemade fallout meter that is accurate and dependable with inexpensive materials found in most households. This report is primarily a compilation and summary of civil defense measures and inventions developed at ORNL over the past 14 years and field-tested in six states, from Florida to Utah. It is the first comprehensive handbook of survival information for use by untrained citizens who want to improve their chances of surviving a possible nuclear attack. Sections may be easily excerpted and reproduced for mass distribution through news media

  11. Superior survival of high transporters treated with automated versus continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, David W; Hawley, Carmel M; McDonald, Stephen P; Brown, Fiona G; Rosman, Johan B; Wiggins, Kathryn J; Bannister, Kym M; Badve, Sunil V

    2010-06-01

    Automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) is widely recommended for the management of high transporters by the International Society of Peritoneal Dialysis (ISPD), although there have been no adequate studies to date comparing the outcomes of APD and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) in this high risk group. The relative impact of APD versus CAPD on patient and technique survival rates was examined by both intention-to-treat (PD modality at Day 90) and 'as-treated' time-varying Cox proportional hazards model analyses in all patients who started PD in Australia or New Zealand between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2004 and who had baseline peritoneal equilibration tests confirming the presence of high peritoneal transport status. During the study period, 4128 patients commenced PD. Of these, 628 patients were high transporters on PD at Day 90 (486 on APD and 142 on CAPD). Compared to high transporters treated with CAPD, APD-treated high transporters were more likely to be younger and Caucasian, and less likely to be diabetic. On multivariate intention-to-treat analysis, APD treatment was associated with superior survival [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.87] and comparable death-censored technique survival (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.64-1.21). Superior survival of high transporters treated with APD versus CAPD was also confirmed in supplemental as-treated analysis (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.96), matched case-control analysis (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.36-0.96) and subgroup analysis of high transporters treated entirely with APD versus those treated entirely with CAPD (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.14-0.60). There were no statistically significant differences in patient survival or death-censored technique survival between APD and CAPD for any other transport group, except for low transporters, who experienced a higher mortality rate on APD compared with CAPD (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.02-4.70). APD treatment is associated with a significant survival advantage in

  12. Survival pathways under stress

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Survival pathways under stress. Bacteria survive by changing gene expression. pattern. Three important pathways will be discussed: Stringent response. Quorum sensing. Proteins performing function to control oxidative damage.

  13. A comparison of the natural survival of beagle dogs injected intravenously with low levels of 239Pu, 226Ra, 228Ra, 228Th, or 90Sr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruenger, F.W.; Miller, S.C.; Lloyd, R.D.

    1991-01-01

    The natural survival, relative to properly chosen controls, of 26 beagle dogs injected once intravenously with an average of 0.58 +/- 0.04 kBq 239 Pu/kg, 23 dogs injected with 2.31 +/- 0.43 kBq 226 Ra/kg, 13 dogs injected with 1.84 +/- 0.26 kBq 228 Ra/kg, 12 dogs injected with 0.56 +/- 0.030 kBq 228 Th/kg, and 12 dogs injected with 21.13 +/- 1.74 kBq 90 Sr/kg was evaluated statistically. The amounts of these radionuclides are related directly to the estimated maximum permissible body burdens for humans suggested in ICRP II (1959). They constitute a level of exposure that initially was assumed to cause no deleterious effects in dogs. This study had two objectives: (1) identification of homogeneous control groups against which to evaluate the survival of the irradiated groups and (2) comparison of the survival characteristics and estimation of mortality or hazard rate ratios for control dogs vs dogs injected with the baseline dosages given above. It was shown, by goodness-of-fit plots, that the Cox proportional hazards model was an appropriate method of analysis. Therefore, covariates that possibly could influence survival were tested for significance. Only the effects of grand mal seizure, which is caused in epileptic dogs by an external stimulus and can be fatal if untreated, were significant (P less than 0.0001). Consequently, in the final model, death from grand mal seizure was considered as accidental. After censoring the dogs dying from grand mal seizure, it was established that the data for the control groups from previous and contemporary experiments could be pooled. The change in hazard rates relative to controls resulting from exposure to the baseline radionuclide level was modest, 1.6 times for 239 Pu (P = 0.033), 1.0(4) for 226 Ra (P = 0.86), 1.9 for 228 Ra (P = 0.035), 2.5 for 228 Th (P less than 0.001), and 0.52 for 90 Sr (P = 0.041)

  14. Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2017-03-01

    Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  15. Nonparametric Bayesian inference for mean residual life functions in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios

    2018-01-19

    Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life (MRL) function, which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e. is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the MRL function characterizes the survival distribution. We develop general Bayesian nonparametric inference for MRL functions built from a Dirichlet process mixture model for the associated survival distribution. The resulting model for the MRL function admits a representation as a mixture of the kernel MRL functions with time-dependent mixture weights. This model structure allows for a wide range of shapes for the MRL function. Particular emphasis is placed on the selection of the mixture kernel, taken to be a gamma distribution, to obtain desirable properties for the MRL function arising from the mixture model. The inference method is illustrated with a data set of two experimental groups and a data set involving right censoring. The supplementary material available at Biostatistics online provides further results on empirical performance of the model, using simulated data examples. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Times of analgesic efficacy of two drugs in the treatment of patients with renal-ureteral colic compared by survival models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Reyes Velázquez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renourethral colic is a very painful clinical situation that requires a quick diagnosis and treatment. A study was done with patients who were administered two types of analgesics, and whose pain was measured through a visual analogue scale. Censored data results were obtained, considering the time when the pain disappeared as the random variable. Maximum likelihood and survival analysis give useful methods to estimate the distribution and parametric functions for this variable. This study will allow a more effective, timely, lower cost and suitable medical treatment for patients.

  17. Network survivability performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-11-01

    This technical report has been developed to address the survivability of telecommunications networks including services. It responds to the need for a common understanding of, and assessment techniques for network survivability, availability, integrity, and reliability. It provides a basis for designing and operating telecommunications networks to user expectations for network survivability and a foundation for continuing industry activities in the subject area. This report focuses on the survivability of both public and private networks and covers a wide range of users. Two frameworks are established for quantifying and categorizing service outages, and for classifying network survivability techniques and measures. The performance of the network survivability techniques is considered; however, recommended objectives are not established for network survivability performance.

  18. Cross-validation and Peeling Strategies for Survival Bump Hunting using Recursive Peeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a framework to build a survival/risk bump hunting model with a censored time-to-event response. Our Survival Bump Hunting (SBH) method is based on a recursive peeling procedure that uses a specific survival peeling criterion derived from non/semi-parametric statistics such as the hazards-ratio, the log-rank test or the Nelson--Aalen estimator. To optimize the tuning parameter of the model and validate it, we introduce an objective function based on survival or prediction-error statistics, such as the log-rank test and the concordance error rate. We also describe two alternative cross-validation techniques adapted to the joint task of decision-rule making by recursive peeling and survival estimation. Numerical analyses show the importance of replicated cross-validation and the differences between criteria and techniques in both low and high-dimensional settings. Although several non-parametric survival models exist, none addresses the problem of directly identifying local extrema. We show how SBH efficiently estimates extreme survival/risk subgroups unlike other models. This provides an insight into the behavior of commonly used models and suggests alternatives to be adopted in practice. Finally, our SBH framework was applied to a clinical dataset. In it, we identified subsets of patients characterized by clinical and demographic covariates with a distinct extreme survival outcome, for which tailored medical interventions could be made. An R package PRIMsrc (Patient Rule Induction Method in Survival, Regression and Classification settings) is available on CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network) and GitHub. PMID:27034730

  19. Cancer survival analysis using semi-supervised learning method based on Cox and AFT models with L1/2 regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong; Chai, Hua; Liu, Xiao-Ying; Xu, Zong-Ben; Zhang, Hai; Leung, Kwong-Sak

    2016-03-01

    One of the most important objectives of the clinical cancer research is to diagnose cancer more accurately based on the patients' gene expression profiles. Both Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) and accelerated failure time model (AFT) have been widely adopted to the high risk and low risk classification or survival time prediction for the patients' clinical treatment. Nevertheless, two main dilemmas limit the accuracy of these prediction methods. One is that the small sample size and censored data remain a bottleneck for training robust and accurate Cox classification model. In addition to that, similar phenotype tumours and prognoses are actually completely different diseases at the genotype and molecular level. Thus, the utility of the AFT model for the survival time prediction is limited when such biological differences of the diseases have not been previously identified. To try to overcome these two main dilemmas, we proposed a novel semi-supervised learning method based on the Cox and AFT models to accurately predict the treatment risk and the survival time of the patients. Moreover, we adopted the efficient L1/2 regularization approach in the semi-supervised learning method to select the relevant genes, which are significantly associated with the disease. The results of the simulation experiments show that the semi-supervised learning model can significant improve the predictive performance of Cox and AFT models in survival analysis. The proposed procedures have been successfully applied to four real microarray gene expression and artificial evaluation datasets. The advantages of our proposed semi-supervised learning method include: 1) significantly increase the available training samples from censored data; 2) high capability for identifying the survival risk classes of patient in Cox model; 3) high predictive accuracy for patients' survival time in AFT model; 4) strong capability of the relevant biomarker selection. Consequently, our proposed semi

  20. 46 CFR 199.130 - Stowage of survival craft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Stowage of survival craft. 199.130 Section 199.130... craft. (a) General. Each survival craft must be stowed— (1) As close to the accommodation and service spaces as possible; (2) So that neither the survival craft nor its stowage arrangements will interfere...

  1. A survival programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vester, F.

    1978-01-01

    The book is a non-speculative information source on ecological problems and their possible solutions. It is a 'programme' from a twofold point of view: it determines political and scientific-technological objectives and it transfers knowledge by mental steps with techniques of programmed instruction. Thus emphasis is laid on detailed problems, especially by conscionsly challenged redundancies, and, on the other hand, a greater context is presented. Selected facts are examined under their different aspects, interactions and control circuits are described. Each chapter will speak for itself after the introduction has been read but is related to other chapters by cross references, illustrative material, a glossary and a comprehensive list of references. The 'Survival Programme' is a realistic and challenging discussion with the problem of 'Ecology in the Industrial Age'. It adresses scientists from various disciplines but also offers itself as a compendium to laymen in search of information, members of citizens initiatives and responsible representants of the political and industrial world. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Multinationals and plant survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandick, Roger

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to investigate how different ownership structures affect plant survival, and second, to analyze how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects domestic plants’ survival. Using a unique and detailed data set on the Swedish manufacturing...... sector, I am able to separate plants into those owned by foreign MNEs, domestic MNEs, exporting non-MNEs, and purely domestic firms. In line with previous findings, the result, when conditioned on other factors affecting survival, shows that foreign MNE plants have lower survival rates than non......-MNE plants. However, separating the non-MNEs into exporters and non-exporters, the result shows that foreign MNE plants have higher survival rates than non-exporting non-MNEs, while the survival rates of foreign MNE plants and exporting non-MNE plants do not seem to differ. Moreover, the simple non...

  3. A nonparametric approach to medical survival data: Uncertainty in the context of risk in mortality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janurová, Kateřina; Briš, Radim

    2014-01-01

    Medical survival right-censored data of about 850 patients are evaluated to analyze the uncertainty related to the risk of mortality on one hand and compare two basic surgery techniques in the context of risk of mortality on the other hand. Colorectal data come from patients who underwent colectomy in the University Hospital of Ostrava. Two basic surgery operating techniques are used for the colectomy: either traditional (open) or minimally invasive (laparoscopic). Basic question arising at the colectomy operation is, which type of operation to choose to guarantee longer overall survival time. Two non-parametric approaches have been used to quantify probability of mortality with uncertainties. In fact, complement of the probability to one, i.e. survival function with corresponding confidence levels is calculated and evaluated. First approach considers standard nonparametric estimators resulting from both the Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival function in connection with Greenwood's formula and the Nelson–Aalen estimator of cumulative hazard function including confidence interval for survival function as well. The second innovative approach, represented by Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI), uses lower and upper probabilities for quantifying uncertainty and provides a model of predictive survival function instead of the population survival function. The traditional log-rank test on one hand and the nonparametric predictive comparison of two groups of lifetime data on the other hand have been compared to evaluate risk of mortality in the context of mentioned surgery techniques. The size of the difference between two groups of lifetime data has been considered and analyzed as well. Both nonparametric approaches led to the same conclusion, that the minimally invasive operating technique guarantees the patient significantly longer survival time in comparison with the traditional operating technique

  4. Support vector methods for survival analysis: a comparison between ranking and regression approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Belle, Vanya; Pelckmans, Kristiaan; Van Huffel, Sabine; Suykens, Johan A K

    2011-10-01

    To compare and evaluate ranking, regression and combined machine learning approaches for the analysis of survival data. The literature describes two approaches based on support vector machines to deal with censored observations. In the first approach the key idea is to rephrase the task as a ranking problem via the concordance index, a problem which can be solved efficiently in a context of structural risk minimization and convex optimization techniques. In a second approach, one uses a regression approach, dealing with censoring by means of inequality constraints. The goal of this paper is then twofold: (i) introducing a new model combining the ranking and regression strategy, which retains the link with existing survival models such as the proportional hazards model via transformation models; and (ii) comparison of the three techniques on 6 clinical and 3 high-dimensional datasets and discussing the relevance of these techniques over classical approaches fur survival data. We compare svm-based survival models based on ranking constraints, based on regression constraints and models based on both ranking and regression constraints. The performance of the models is compared by means of three different measures: (i) the concordance index, measuring the model's discriminating ability; (ii) the logrank test statistic, indicating whether patients with a prognostic index lower than the median prognostic index have a significant different survival than patients with a prognostic index higher than the median; and (iii) the hazard ratio after normalization to restrict the prognostic index between 0 and 1. Our results indicate a significantly better performance for models including regression constraints above models only based on ranking constraints. This work gives empirical evidence that svm-based models using regression constraints perform significantly better than svm-based models based on ranking constraints. Our experiments show a comparable performance for methods

  5. 51Cr - erythrocyte survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paiva Costa, J. de.

    1982-07-01

    Sixteen patients were studied, being fifteen patients in hemolytic state, and a normal individual as a witness. The aim was to obtain better techniques for the analysis of the erythrocytes, survival curves, according to the recommendations of the International Committee of Hematology. It was used the radiochromatic method as a tracer. Previously a revisional study of the International Literature was made in its aspects inherent to the work in execution, rendering possible to establish comparisons and clarify phonomena observed in cur investigation. Several parameters were considered in this study, hindering both the exponential and the linear curves. The analysis of the survival curves of the erythrocytes in the studied group, revealed that the elution factor did not present a homogeneous answer quantitatively to all, though, the result of the analysis of these curves have been established, through listed programs in the electronic calculator. (Author) [pt

  6. Marketing child survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, J P

    1984-01-01

    Growth monitoring charts, packets of oral rehydration salts (ORS), and vaccines, are inexpensive, life-saving, growth-protecting technologies which can enable parents to protect their children against the worst effects of poverty. Similarly, a matrix of current and easily understandable information about pregnancy, breast feeding, weaning, feeding during and immediately after illness, child spacing, and preparing and using home-made oral rehydration solutions, also could empower parents to protect the lives and the health of their children. The question arises as to how can these technologies and this information be put at the disposal of millions of families in the low-income world. The initial task of the Child Survival and Development Revolution is the communication of what is now possible, yet little is known about how to communicate information whose principal value is to the poor. There are 2 large-scale precedents: the Green Revolution, which in many instances succeeded in putting into the hands of thousands of small and large farmers the techniques and the knowledge which enabled them to double and treble the yields from their lands; and the campaign to put the knowledge and the means of family planning at the disposal of many millions of people. There are 2 lessons to be learned from these precedents: they have shown that the way to promote a people's technology and to put information at the disposal of the majority is by mobilizing all possible resources and working through all possible channels both to create the demand and to meet it; and neither the Green Revolution nor the family planning movement rally took off until they were viewed as political and economic priorities and given the full support of the nation's political leadership. Nowhere are these 2 lessons more clearly illustrated than in present-day Indonesia. Because the campaign for family planning was given high personal and political priority by the President, and because 85% of all family

  7. Attributing death to cancer: cause-specific survival estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathew A

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available Cancer survival estimation is an important part of assessing the overall strength of cancer care in a region. Generally, the death of a patient is taken as the end point in estimation of overall survival. When calculating the overall survival, the cause of death is not taken into account. With increasing demand for better survival of cancer patients it is important for clinicians and researchers to know about survival statistics due to disease of interest, i.e. net survival. It is also important to choose the best method for estimating net survival. Increase in the use of computer programmes has made it possible to carry out statistical analysis without guidance from a bio-statistician. This is of prime importance in third- world countries as there are a few trained bio-statisticians to guide clinicians and researchers. The present communication describes current methods used to estimate net survival such as cause-specific survival and relative survival. The limitation of estimation of cause-specific survival particularly in India and the usefulness of relative survival are discussed. The various sources for estimating cancer survival are also discussed. As survival-estimates are to be projected on to the population at large, it becomes important to measure the variation of the estimates, and thus confidence intervals are used. Rothman′s confidence interval gives the most satisfactory result for survival estimate.

  8. Revisiting double kidney transplantation: two kidneys provide better graft survival than one.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruzado, J M; Fernandez, L; Riera, L; Bestard, O; Carrera, M; Torras, J; Gil Vernet, S; Melilli, E; Ngango, L; Grinyó, J M

    2011-01-01

    Double kidney transplantation is an accepted strategy to increase the donor pool. Regarding older donor kidneys, protocols for deciding to perform a dual or a single transplantation are mainly based on preimplantation biopsies. The aim of our study was to evaluate the long-term graft and patient survivals of our "Dual Kidney Transplant program." Patients who lost one of their grafts peritransplantation were used as controls. A total of 203 patients underwent kidney transplantation from December 1996 to January 2008 in our "old for old" renal transplantation program. We excluded 21 patients because of a nonfunctioning kidney, hyperacute rejection, or patient death with a functioning graft within the first month. Seventy-nine among 182 kidney transplantation the "old for old" program were dual kidney transplantation (DKT). Fifteen of 79 patients lost one of their kidney grafts (the uninephrectomized (UNX) UNX group). At 1 year, renal function was lower and proteinuria greater among the UNX than the DKT group. Patient survival was similar in both groups. However, death-censored graft survival was lower in UNX than DKT patients. The 5-year graft survival rate was 70% in UNX versus 93% in DKT cohorts (P = .04). In conclusion, taking into account the kidney shortage, our results may question whether the excellent transplant outcomes with DKT counter balance the reduced donor pool obviating acceptable transplant outcomes for more patients with single kidney transplantation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A survival analysis on critical components of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durbec, V.; Pitner, P.; Riffard, T.

    1995-06-01

    Some tubes of heat exchangers of nuclear power plants may be affected by Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) in highly stressed areas. These defects can shorten the lifetime of the component and lead to its replacement. In order to reduce the risk of cracking, a preventive remedial operation called shot peening was applied on the French reactors between 1985 and 1988. To assess and investigate the effects of shot peening, a statistical analysis was carried on the tube degradation results obtained from in service inspection that are regularly conducted using non destructive tests. The statistical method used is based on the Cox proportional hazards model, a powerful tool in the analysis of survival data, implemented in PROC PHRED recently available in SAS/STAT. This technique has a number of major advantages including the ability to deal with censored failure times data and with the complication of time-dependant co-variables. The paper focus on the modelling and a presentation of the results given by SAS. They provide estimate of how the relative risk of degradation changes after peening and indicate for which values of the prognostic factors analyzed the treatment is likely to be most beneficial. (authors). 2 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  10. Controlling chaotic transients: Yorke's game of survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aguirre, Jacobo; D'ovidio, Francesco; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2004-01-01

    . This problem is focused as a two-person, mathematical game between two players called "the protagonist" and "the adversary." The protagonist's goal is to survive. He can lose but cannot win; the best he can do is survive to play another round, struggling ad infinitum. In the absence of actions by either player...... knows the action of the adversary in choosing his response and is permitted to choose the initial point x(0) of the game. We use the "slope 3" tent map in an example of this problem. We show that it is possible for the protagonist to survive....

  11. Pseudo-observations in survival analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Perme, Maja Pohar

    2010-01-01

    -state models, e.g. the competing risks cumulative incidence function. Graphical and numerical methods for assessing goodness-of-fit for hazard regression models and for the Fine-Gray model in competing risks studies based on pseudo-observations are also reviewed. Sensitivity to covariate-dependent censoring...

  12. Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

  13. Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

  14. Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, R

    2016-10-01

    Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order

  15. Prolonged Delayed Graft Function Is Associated with Inferior Patient and Kidney Allograft Survivals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainá Veras de Sandes-Freitas

    Full Text Available It is unclear if there is an association between the duration of delayed graft function (DGF and kidney transplant (KT outcomes. This study investigated the impact of prolonged DGF on patient and graft survivals, and renal function one year after KT. This single center retrospective analysis included all deceased donor KT performed between Jan/1998 and Dec/2008 (n = 1412. Patients were grouped in quartiles according to duration of DGF (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and >15 days, designated as prolonged DGF. The overall incidence of DGF was 54.2%. Prolonged DGF was associated with retransplantation (OR 2.110, CI95% 1.064-4.184,p = 0.033 and more than 3 HLA mismatches (OR 1.819, CI95% 1.117-2.962,p = 0.016. The incidence of acute rejection was higher in patients with DGF compared with those without DGF (36.2% vs. 12.2%, p<0.001. Compared to patients without DGF, DGF(1-5, DGF(6-10, and DGF(11-15, patients with prolonged DGF showed inferior one year patient survival (95.2% vs. 95.4% vs. 95.5% vs. 93.4% vs. 88.86%, p = 0.003, graft survival (91% vs. 91.4% vs. 92% vs. 88.7% vs. 70.5%, p<0.001, death-censored graft survival (95.7% vs. 95.4% vs. 96.4% vs. 94% vs. 79.3%, p<0.001, and creatinine clearance (58.0±24.6 vs. 55.8±22.2 vs. 53.8±24.1 vs. 53.0±27.2 vs. 36.8±27.0 mL/min, p<0.001, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that prolonged DGF was an independent risk factor for graft loss (OR 3.876, CI95% 2.270-6.618, p<0.001, death censored graft loss (OR 4.103, CI95% 2.055-8.193, p<0.001, and death (OR 3.065, CI95% 1.536-6.117, p = 0.001. Prolonged DGF, determined by retransplantation and higher HLA mismatches, was associated with inferior renal function, and patient and graft survivals at one year.

  16. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mould, Richard F [41 Ewhurst Avenue, South Croydon, Surrey CR2 0DH (United Kingdom); Lahanas, Michael [Klinikum Offenbach, Strahlenklinik, 66 Starkenburgring, 63069 Offenbach am Main (Germany); Asselain, Bernard [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Brewster, David [Director, Scottish Cancer Registry, Information Services (NHS National Services Scotland) Area 155, Gyle Square, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh EH12 9EB (United Kingdom); Burgers, Sjaak A [Department of Thoracic Oncology, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Plesmanlaan 121, 1066 CX Amsterdam, The (Netherlands); Damhuis, Ronald A M [Rotterdam Cancer Registry, Rochussenstraat 125, PO Box 289, 3000 AG Rotterdam, The (Netherlands); Rycke, Yann De [Institut Curie, Biostatistiques, 26 rue d' Ulm, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Gennaro, Valerio [Liguria Mesothelioma Cancer Registry, Etiology and Epidemiology Department, National Cancer Research Institute, Pad. Maragliano, Largo R Benzi, 10-16132 Genoa (Italy); Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila [Department of Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology, National Institute of Occupational Medicine, PO Box 199, Swietej Teresy od Dzieciatka Jezus 8, 91-348 Lodz (Poland)

    2004-09-07

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0.

  17. Methodology for lognormal modelling of malignant pleural mesothelioma survival time distributions: a study of 5580 case histories from Europe and USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, Richard F; Lahanas, Michael; Asselain, Bernard; Brewster, David; Burgers, Sjaak A; Damhuis, Ronald A M; Rycke, Yann De; Gennaro, Valerio; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila

    2004-01-01

    A truncated left-censored and right-censored lognormal model has been validated for representing pleural mesothelioma survival times in the range 5-200 weeks for data subsets grouped by age for males, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+ years and for all ages combined for females. The cases available for study were from Europe and USA and totalled 5580. This is larger than any other pleural mesothelioma cohort accrued for study. The methodology describes the computation of reference baseline probabilities, 5-200 weeks, which can be used in clinical trials to assess results of future promising treatment methods. This study is an extension of previous lognormal modelling by Mould et al (2002 Phys. Med. Biol. 47 3893-924) to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data where the proportion cured is denoted by C and the uncured proportion, which can be represented by a lognormal, by (1 - C). Pleural mesothelioma is a special case when C = 0

  18. Multilevel survival analysis of health inequalities in life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merlo Juan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The health status of individuals is determined by multiple factors operating at both micro and macro levels and the interactive effects of them. Measures of health inequalities should reflect such determinants explicitly through sources of levels and combining mean differences at group levels and the variation of individuals, for the benefits of decision making and intervention planning. Measures derived recently from marginal models such as beta-binomial and frailty survival, address this issue to some extent, but are limited in handling data with complex structures. Beta-binomial models were also limited in relation to measuring inequalities of life expectancy (LE directly. Methods We propose a multilevel survival model analysis that estimates life expectancy based on survival time with censored data. The model explicitly disentangles total health inequalities in terms of variance components of life expectancy compared to the source of variation at the level of individuals in households and parishes and so on, and estimates group differences of inequalities at the same time. Adjusted distributions of life expectancy by gender and by household socioeconomic level are calculated. Relative and absolute health inequality indices are derived based on model estimates. The model based analysis is illustrated on a large Swedish cohort of 22,680 men and 26,474 women aged 65–69 in 1970 and followed up for 30 years. Model based inequality measures are compared to the conventional calculations. Results Much variation of life expectancy is observed at individual and household levels. Contextual effects at Parish and Municipality level are negligible. Women have longer life expectancy than men and lower inequality. There is marked inequality by the level of household socioeconomic status measured by the median life expectancy in each socio-economic group and the variation in life expectancy within each group. Conclusion Multilevel

  19. The use of statistical methods for censored data to evaluate the activity concentration of Pb-210 in beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mingote, Raquel M; Nogueira, Regina A

    2016-10-01

    A survey of 210 Pb activity concentration, one of the major internal natural radiation sources to man, has been carried in the most common species of beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grown and consumed in Brazil. The representative bean types chosen, Carioca beans and black type sown in the Brazilian Midwestern and Southern regions, have been collected in this study and 210 Pb determined by liquid scintillation spectrometry after separation with chromatographic extraction using Sr-resin. Available values in data set of radioactivity in Brazil (GEORAD) on the 210 Pb activity concentration in black beans grown in Southeastern region have been added to the results of this study with the purpose of to amplify the population considered. Concerning the multiple detection limits and due to the high level of censored observations, a robust semi-parametric statistical method called regression on order statistics (ROS) has been employed to provide a reference value of the 210 Pb in Brazilian beans, which amounted to 41 mBq kg -1 fresh wt. The results suggest that the 210 Pb activity concentration in carioca beans is lower than in black beans. Also evaluated was the 210 Pb activity concentration in vegetable component of a typical diet, which displays lower values than those shown in the literature for food consumed in Europe. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Statistical methods for the analysis of left-censored variables [Statistische Analysemethoden für linkszensierte Variablen und Beobachtungen mit Werten unterhalb einer Bestimmungs- oder Nachweisgrenze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pesch, Beate

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available [english] In some applications statisticians are confronted with values which are reported to be below a limit of detection or quantitation. These left-censored variables are a challenge in the statistical analysis. In a simulation study, we compare different methods to deal with this type of data in statistical applications. These include measures of location, dispersion, association, and statistical modeling. Our simulation study showed that the multiple imputation approach and the Tobit regression lead to unbiased estimates, whereas the naïve methods including simple substitution of non-detects lead to unreliable estimates. We illustrate the application of the multiple imputation approach and the Tobit regression with an example from occupational epidemiology. [german] In der statistischen Praxis treten immer wieder Variablen mit Werten unterhalb einer Bestimmungs- oder Nachweisgrenze auf. Diese sind linkszensiert und stellen daher eine Herausforderung für die statistische Analyse dar. Im Rahmen einer Simulationsstudie vergleichen wir Schätzmethoden zur Berechnung von Lage- und Streuungmaßen, Korrelationen und Regressionsparametern bei diesen Variablen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die multiple Imputationsmethode und die Tobit Regression zu unverzerrten Schätzungen führen. Naive Methoden, einschließlich der einfachen Substitution von zensierten Beobachtungen, ergeben hingegen unzuverlässige Schätzungen. Wir illustrieren die Anwendung der multiplen Imputationsmethode und der Tobit Regression anhand eines Beispiels aus der Epidemiologie der Arbeitswelt.

  1. Bayesian variable selection for multistate Markov models with interval-censored data in an ecological momentary assessment study of smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koslovsky, Matthew D; Swartz, Michael D; Chan, Wenyaw; Leon-Novelo, Luis; Wilkinson, Anna V; Kendzor, Darla E; Businelle, Michael S

    2017-10-11

    The application of sophisticated analytical methods to intensive longitudinal data, collected with ecological momentary assessments (EMA), has helped researchers better understand smoking behaviors after a quit attempt. Unfortunately, the wealth of information captured with EMAs is typically underutilized in practice. Thus, novel methods are needed to extract this information in exploratory research studies. One of the main objectives of intensive longitudinal data analysis is identifying relations between risk factors and outcomes of interest. Our goal is to develop and apply expectation maximization variable selection for Bayesian multistate Markov models with interval-censored data to generate new insights into the relation between potential risk factors and transitions between smoking states. Through simulation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in identifying associated risk factors and its ability to outperform the LASSO in a special case. Additionally, we use the expectation conditional-maximization algorithm to simplify estimation, a deterministic annealing variant to reduce the algorithm's dependence on starting values, and Louis's method to estimate unknown parameter uncertainty. We then apply our method to intensive longitudinal data collected with EMA to identify risk factors associated with transitions between smoking states after a quit attempt in a cohort of socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers who were interested in quitting. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Network ties and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acheampong, George; Narteh, Bedman; Rand, John

    2017-01-01

    Poultry farming has been touted as one of the major ways by which poverty can be reduced in low-income economies like Ghana. Yet, anecdotally there is a high failure rate among these poultry farms. This current study seeks to understand the relationship between network ties and survival chances...... of small commercial poultry farms (SCPFs). We utilize data from a 2-year network survey of SCPFs in rural Ghana. The survival of these poultry farms are modelled using a lagged probit model of farms that persisted from 2014 into 2015. We find that network ties are important to the survival chances...... but this probability reduces as the number of industry ties increases but moderation with dynamic capability of the firm reverses this trend. Our findings show that not all network ties aid survival and therefore small commercial poultry farmers need to be circumspect in the network ties they cultivate and develop....

  3. Survival of falling robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

    1992-01-01

    As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

  4. Survivability and Hope

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Current Issue Past Issues Special Section Survivability and Hope Past Issues / Spring 2007 Table of Contents For ... cure or long-term survivorship." This message of hope is a hallmark of the latest advances in ...

  5. Survival of falling robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

    1992-02-01

    As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

  6. Cooking frequency may enhance survival in Taiwanese elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rosalind Chia-Yu; Lee, Meei-Shyuan; Chang, Yu-Hung; Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2012-07-01

    To investigate the association between cooking behaviour and long-term survival among elderly Taiwanese. Cohort study. The duration of follow-up was the interval between the date of interview and the date of death or 31 December 2008, when censored for survivors. Information used included demographics, socio-economic status, health behaviours, cooking frequencies, physical function, cognitive function, nutrition knowledge awareness, eating out habits and food and nutrient intakes. These data were linked to death records. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate cooking frequency on death from 1999 to 2008 with related covariate adjustments. Elderly Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan, 1999-2000. Nationally representative free-living elderly people aged ≥65 years (n 1888). During a 10-year follow-up, 695 participants died. Those who cooked most frequently were younger, women, unmarried, less educated, non-drinkers of alcohol, non-smokers, without chewing difficulty, had spouse as dinner companion, normal cognition, who walked or shopped more than twice weekly, who ate less meat and more vegetables. Highly frequent cooking (>5 times/week, compared with never) predicted survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 0·47; 95 % CI, 0·36, 0·61); with adjustment for physical function, cognitive function, nutrition knowledge awareness and other covariates, HR was 0·59 (95 % CI, 0·41, 0·86). Women benefited more from cooking more frequently than did men, with decreased HR, 51 % v. 24 %, when most was compared with least. A 2-year delay in the assessment of survivorship led to similar findings. Cooking behaviour favourably predicts survivorship. Highly frequent cooking may favour women more than men.

  7. Body mass index and breast cancer survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qi; Burgess, Stephen; Turman, Constance

    2017-01-01

    Background: There is increasing evidence that elevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with reduced survival for women with breast cancer. However, the underlying reasons remain unclear. We conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate a possible causal role of BMI in survival...... from breast cancer. Methods: We used individual-level data from six large breast cancer case-cohorts including a total of 36 210 individuals (2475 events) of European ancestry. We created a BMI genetic risk score (GRS) based on genotypes at 94 known BMI-associated genetic variants. Association between...... the BMI genetic score and breast cancer survival was analysed by Cox regression for each study separately. Study-specific hazard ratios were pooled using fixed-effect meta-analysis. Results: BMI genetic score was found to be associated with reduced breast cancer-specific survival for estrogen receptor (ER...

  8. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  9. Postoperative Respiratory Function and Survival After Pneumonectomy in Dogs and Cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majeski, Stephanie A; Steffey, Michele A; Mayhew, Philipp D; Hunt, Geraldine B; Holt, David E; Runge, Jeffrey J; Kass, Philip H; Mellema, Matthew

    2016-08-01

    To describe indications for, and outcomes after, pneumonectomy in dogs and cats, including assessment of immediate postoperative respiratory function in comparison to dogs undergoing single lung lobectomy. Retrospective case series. Dogs (n=16) and cats (n=7) with naturally occurring pulmonary disease. Medical records (1990-2014) of dogs and cats undergoing right or left pneumonectomy were reviewed. Data retrieved included signalment, history, preoperative diagnostics, operative descriptions, postoperative data including respiratory function, and postdischarge outcomes. For respiratory function comparisons, medical records of dogs having undergone a single lung lobectomy via median sternotomy (n=15) or intercostal thoracotomy (n=15) were reviewed. Twenty-three cases (16 dogs, 7 cats) were included. Pneumonectomy was performed for congenital (1 dog, 1 cat), neoplastic (8 dogs, 1 cat), and infectious (7 dogs, 5 cats) disease. Postoperative aspiration pneumonia occurred in 2 dogs; 15 of 16 dogs (94%) and 6/7 cats (86%) survived to hospital discharge. After pneumonectomy, dogs had a significantly higher postoperative PaO2 on 21% oxygen (P=.033) and lower postoperative A-a gradient (P=.004) compared to dogs undergoing single lung lobectomy. Survival times (right-censored at last follow-up) for dogs ranged from 2 days to 7 years (estimated median=1,868 days) and for cats from 1-585 days. Dogs and cats have acceptable respiratory function immediately postoperatively and most have protracted long-term survival after pneumonectomy for a variety of pulmonary diseases. © Copyright 2016 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

  10. Possibility and necessity measures and integral equivalence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chen, T.; Mesiar, Radko; Li, J.; Stupňanová, A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 86, č. 1 (2017), s. 62-72 ISSN 0888-613X Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Integral equivalence * Necessity measure * Possibility measure * Survival function * Universal integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 2.845, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0477092.pdf

  11. Foreign acquisition, plant survival, and employment growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandick, Roger; Görg, Holger

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of foreign acquisition on survival and employment growth of targets using data on Swedish manufacturing plants.We separate targeted plants into those within Swedish MNEs, Swedish exporting non-MNEs, and purely domestic firms. The results, controlling for possible...... acquisitions. We find robust positive employment growth effects only for exporters and only if the takeover is vertical....

  12. Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G; Sargent, Daniel J; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

    2012-03-01

    Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. © 2011, The International Biometric Society No claim to original US government works.

  13. ["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

    2009-01-01

    To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

  14. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

  15. Surviving After Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... fewer tools for communicating their feelings. Surviving After Suicide Fact Sheet 3 Children are especially vulnerable to feelings of guilt and ... to take care of them. Secrecy about the suicide in the hopes of protecting children may cause further complications. Explain the situation and ...

  16. Survivability via Control Objectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CAMPBELL,PHILIP L.

    2000-08-11

    Control objectives open an additional front in the survivability battle. A given set of control objectives is valuable if it represents good practices, it is complete (it covers all the necessary areas), and it is auditable. CobiT and BS 7799 are two examples of control objective sets.

  17. Education for Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, James E., Jr.

    In this address, James E. Allen, Jr., Assistant Secretary for Education and U.S. Commissioner of Education, discusses the relationship of education to the problem of ecological destruction. He states that the solutions to the problems of air, water, and soil pollution may be found in redirected education. This "education for survival" can serve to…

  18. Artists’ Survival Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Trine; Jensen, Søren

    2017-01-01

    The literature of cultural economics generally finds that an artistic education has no significant impact on artists’ income and careers in the arts. In our research, we have readdressed this question by looking at the artists’ survival in the arts occupations. The results show that an artistic...... education has a significant impact on artists’ careers in the arts and we find important industry differences....

  19. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18F-FDG uptake predicts survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Hyup; Kim, Ho Seong; Lee, Kyung-Han; Kim, Byung-Tae; Choi, Joon Young; Choi, Seong Ho; Choi, Dong Wook; Lee, Jong Kyun; Lee, Kwang Hyuck; Park, Joon Oh

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether intratumoral heterogeneity measured by 18 F-FDG PET texture analysis has potential as a prognostic imaging biomarker in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We evaluated a cohort of 137 patients with newly diagnosed PDAC who underwent pretreatment 18 F-FDG PET/CT from January 2008 to December 2010. First-order (histogram indices) and higher-order (grey-level run length, difference, size zone matrices) textural features of primary tumours were extracted by PET texture analysis. Conventional PET parameters including metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and standardized uptake value (SUV) were also measured. To assess and compare the predictive performance of imaging biomarkers, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for censored survival data and areas under the ROC curve (AUC) at 2 years after diagnosis were used. Associations between imaging biomarkers and overall survival were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The best imaging biomarker for overall survival prediction was first-order entropy (AUC = 0.720), followed by TLG (AUC = 0.697), MTV (AUC = 0.692), and maximum SUV (AUC = 0.625). After adjusting for age, sex, clinical stage, tumour size and serum CA19-9 level, multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that higher entropy (hazard ratio, HR, 5.59; P = 0.028) was independently associated with worse survival, whereas TLG (HR 0.98; P = 0.875) was not an independent prognostic factor. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18 F-FDG uptake measured by PET texture analysis is an independent predictor of survival along with tumour stage and serum CA19-9 level in patients with PDAC. In addition, first-order entropy as a measure of intratumoral metabolic heterogeneity is a better quantitative imaging biomarker of prognosis than conventional PET parameters. (orig.)

  20. Benign meningiomas: primary treatment selection affects survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condra, Kellie S.; Buatti, John M.; Mendenhall, William M.; Friedman, William A.; Marcus, Robert B.; Rhoton, Albert L.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the effect of primary treatment selection on outcomes for benign intracranial meningiomas at the University of Florida. Methods and Materials: For 262 patients, the impact of age, Karnofsky performance status, pathologic features, tumor size, tumor location, and treatment modality on local control and cause-specific survival was analyzed (minimum potential follow-up, 2 years; median follow-up, 8.2 years). Extent of surgery was classified by Simpson grade. Treatment groups: surgery alone (n = 229), surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (RT) (n = 21), RT alone (n = 7), radiosurgery alone (n = 5). Survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier method with univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: At 15 years, local control was 76% after total excision (TE) and 87% after subtotal excision plus RT (SE+RT), both significantly better (p = 0.0001) than after SE alone (30%). Cause-specific survival at 15 years was reduced after treatment with SE alone (51%), compared with TE (88%) or SE+RT (86%) (p = 0.0003). Recurrence after primary treatment portended decreased survival, independent of initial treatment group or salvage treatment selection (p = 0.001). Atypical pathologic features predicted reduced 15-year local control (54 vs. 71%) and cause-specific survival rates (57 vs. 86%). Multivariate analysis for cause-specific survival revealed treatment group (SE vs. others; p = 0.0001), pathologic features (atypical vs. typical; p = 0.0056), and Karnofsky performance status (≥80 vs. <80; p = 0.0153) as significant variables. Conclusion: Benign meningiomas are well managed by TE or SE+RT. SE alone is inadequate therapy and adversely affects cause-specific survival. Atypical pathologic features predict a poorer outcome, suggesting possible benefit from more aggressive treatment. Because local recurrence portends lower survival rates, primary treatment choice is important

  1. A versatile test for equality of two survival functions based on weighted differences of Kaplan-Meier curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, Hajime; Tian, Lu; Claggett, Brian; Wei, L J

    2015-12-10

    With censored event time observations, the logrank test is the most popular tool for testing the equality of two underlying survival distributions. Although this test is asymptotically distribution free, it may not be powerful when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. Various other novel testing procedures have been proposed, which generally are derived by assuming a class of specific alternative hypotheses with respect to the hazard functions. The test considered by Pepe and Fleming (1989) is based on a linear combination of weighted differences of the two Kaplan-Meier curves over time and is a natural tool to assess the difference of two survival functions directly. In this article, we take a similar approach but choose weights that are proportional to the observed standardized difference of the estimated survival curves at each time point. The new proposal automatically makes weighting adjustments empirically. The new test statistic is aimed at a one-sided general alternative hypothesis and is distributed with a short right tail under the null hypothesis but with a heavy tail under the alternative. The results from extensive numerical studies demonstrate that the new procedure performs well under various general alternatives with a caution of a minor inflation of the type I error rate when the sample size is small or the number of observed events is small. The survival data from a recent cancer comparative study are utilized for illustrating the implementation of the process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Radiobilogical cell survival models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zackrisson, B.

    1992-01-01

    A central issue in clinical radiobiological research is the prediction of responses to different radiation qualities. The choice of cell survival and dose-response model greatly influences the results. In this context the relationship between theory and model is emphasized. Generally, the interpretations of experimental data depend on the model. Cell survival models are systematized with respect to their relations to radiobiological theories of cell kill. The growing knowlegde of biological, physical, and chemical mechanisms is reflected in the formulation of new models. The present overview shows that recent modelling has been more oriented towards the stochastic fluctuations connected to radiation energy deposition. This implies that the traditional cell surivival models ought to be complemented by models of stochastic energy deposition processes and repair processes at the intracellular level. (orig.)

  3. Carbonaceous Survivability on Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, T. E.; Becker, Luann; Morrison, David (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    In order to gain knowledge about the potential contributions of comets and cosmic dust to the origin of life on Earth, we need to explore the survivability of their potential organic compounds on impact and the formation of secondary products that may have arisen from the chaotic events sustained by the carriers as they fell to Earth. We have performed a series of hypervelocity impact experiments using carbon-bearing impactors (diamond, graphite, kerogens, PAH crystals, and Murchison and Nogoya meteorites) into Al plate targets at velocities - 6 km/s. Estimated peak shock pressures probably did not exceed 120 GPa and peak shock temperatures were probably less than 4000 K for times of nano- to microsecs. Nominal crater dia. are less than one mm. The most significant results of these experiments are the preservation of the higher mass PAHs (e. g., pyrene relative to napthalene) and the formation of additional alkylated PAHs. We have also examined the residues of polystyrene projectiles impacted by a microparticle accelerator into targets at velocities up to 15 km/s. This talk will discuss the results of these experiments and their implications with respect to the survival of carbonaceous deliverables to early Earth. The prospects of survivability of organic molecules on "intact" capture of cosmic dust in space via soft: and hard cosmic dust collectors will also be discussed.

  4. Physical activity and survival in breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ammitzbøll, Gunn; Søgaard, Karen; Karlsen, Randi V

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Knowledge about lifestyle factors possibly influencing survival after breast cancer (BC) is paramount. We examined associations between two types of postdiagnosis physical activity (PA) and overall survival after BC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used prospective data on 959 BC survivors from...... the Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort, all enrolled before diagnosis. Self-reported PA was measured as time per activity, and estimated metabolic equivalent task (MET)-hours per week were summed for each activity. We constructed measures for household, exercise, and total PA. The association between...... from all causes during the study period. In adjusted analyses, exercise PA above eight MET h/week compared to lower levels of activity was significantly associated with improved overall survival (HR, 0.68; confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.99). When comparing participation in exercise to non...

  5. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  6. Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher J.; Boyce, Mark S.; Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.

    2004-01-01

     Wildlife ecologists often use the Kaplan-Meier procedure or Cox proportional hazards model to estimate survival rates, distributions, and magnitude of risk factors. The Andersen-Gill formulation (A-G) of the Cox proportional hazards model has seen limited application to mark-resight data but has a number of advantages, including the ability to accommodate left-censored data, time-varying covariates, multiple events, and discontinuous intervals of risks. We introduce the A-G model including structure of data, interpretation of results, and assessment of assumptions. We then apply the model to 22 years of radiotelemetry data for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) of the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) and multi-model inference to assess a number of potentially useful predictive models relative to explanatory covariates for demography, human disturbance, and habitat. Using the most parsimonious models, we generated risk ratios, hypothetical survival curves, and a map of the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across the recovery zone. Our results were in agreement with past studies of mortality factors for Yellowstone grizzly bears. Holding other covariates constant, mortality was highest for bears that were subjected to repeated management actions and inhabited areas with high road densities outside Yellowstone National Park. Hazard models developed with covariates descriptive of foraging habitats were not the most parsimonious, but they suggested that high-elevation areas offered lower risks of mortality when compared to agricultural areas.

  7. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Koslovsky, Matthew D.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2018-01-01

    Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

  8. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  9. Possibility Fuzzy Soft Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawkat Alkhazaleh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the concept of possibility fuzzy soft set and its operation and study some of its properties. We give applications of this theory in solving a decision-making problem. We also introduce a similarity measure of two possibility fuzzy soft sets and discuss their application in a medical diagnosis problem.

  10. Multiple neoplasms, single primaries, and patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amer, Magid H

    2014-01-01

    Multiple primary neoplasms in surviving cancer patients are relatively common, with an increasing incidence. Their impact on survival has not been clearly defined. This was a retrospective review of clinical data for all consecutive patients with histologically confirmed cancer, with emphasis on single versus multiple primary neoplasms. Second primaries discovered at the workup of the index (first) primary were termed simultaneous, if discovered within 6 months of the index primary were called synchronous, and if discovered after 6 months were termed metachronous. Between 2005 and 2012, of 1,873 cancer patients, 322 developed second malignancies; these included two primaries (n=284), and three or more primaries (n=38). Forty-seven patients had synchronous primaries and 275 had metachronous primaries. Patients with multiple primaries were predominantly of Caucasian ancestry (91.0%), with a tendency to develop thrombosis (20.2%), had a strong family history of similar cancer (22.3%), and usually presented with earlier stage 0 through stage II disease (78.9%). When compared with 1,551 patients with a single primary, these figures were 8.9%, 15.6%, 18.3%, and 50.9%, respectively (P≤0.001). Five-year survival rates were higher for metachronous cancers (95%) than for synchronous primaries (59%) and single primaries (59%). The worst survival rate was for simultaneous concomitant multiple primaries, being a median of 1.9 years. The best survival was for patients with three or more primaries (median 10.9 years) and was similar to the expected survival for the age-matched and sex-matched general population (P=0.06991). Patients with multiple primaries are usually of Caucasian ancestry, have less aggressive malignancies, present at earlier stages, frequently have a strong family history of similar cancer, and their cancers tend to have indolent clinical behavior with longer survival rates, possibly related to genetic predisposition

  11. Do Kids Need Government Censors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabkin, Rhoda

    2002-01-01

    Fashioning public policies restricting children's access to entertainment glamorizing violence, sex, drugs, and vulgarity is a complex task. The recently introduced Media Marketing Accountability Act would empower the federal government to regulate advertising of entertainment products to youth. Suggests that this power is undesirable compared to…

  12. Censored: Whistleblowers and impossible speech

    OpenAIRE

    Kenny, Kate

    2017-01-01

    What happens to a person who speaks out about corruption in their organization, and finds themselves excluded from their profession? In this article, I argue that whistleblowers experience exclusions because they have engaged in ‘impossible speech’, that is, a speech act considered to be unacceptable or illegitimate. Drawing on Butler’s theories of recognition and censorship, I show how norms of acceptable speech working through recruitment practices, alongside the actions of colleagues, can ...

  13. Does a cosmic censor exist

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Israel, W.

    1984-01-01

    A distinction is drawn between the event horizon conjecture (EHC), the conjecture that an event horizon forms in a gravitational collapse, and cosmic censorship, the idea that every singularity which develops in the course of collapse must be enclosed within a horizon. It is argued that a body of circumstantial evidence seems to favor EHC, but cosmic censorship seems contraindicated

  14. Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Boemer

    Full Text Available Equine atypical myopathy (AM is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups.

  15. Acylcarnitines profile best predicts survival in horses with atypical myopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detilleux, Johann; Cello, Christophe; Amory, Hélène; Marcillaud-Pitel, Christel; Richard, Eric; van Galen, Gaby; van Loon, Gunther; Lefère, Laurence; Votion, Dominique-Marie

    2017-01-01

    Equine atypical myopathy (AM) is caused by hypoglycin A intoxication and is characterized by a high fatality rate. Predictive estimation of survival in AM horses is necessary to prevent unnecessary suffering of animals that are unlikely to survive and to focus supportive therapy on horses with a possible favourable prognosis of survival. We hypothesized that outcome may be predicted early in the course of disease based on the assumption that the acylcarnitine profile reflects the derangement of muscle energetics. We developed a statistical model to prognosticate the risk of death of diseased animals and found that estimation of outcome may be drawn from three acylcarnitines (C2, C10:2 and C18 -carnitines) with a high sensitivity and specificity. The calculation of the prognosis of survival makes it possible to distinguish the horses that will survive from those that will die despite severe signs of acute rhabdomyolysis in both groups. PMID:28846683

  16. Detecting small-study effects and funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analysis of survival data: A comparison of new and existing tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debray, Thomas P A; Moons, Karel G M; Riley, Richard D

    2018-03-01

    Small-study effects are a common threat in systematic reviews and may indicate publication bias. Their existence is often verified by visual inspection of the funnel plot. Formal tests to assess the presence of funnel plot asymmetry typically estimate the association between the reported effect size and their standard error, the total sample size, or the inverse of the total sample size. In this paper, we demonstrate that the application of these tests may be less appropriate in meta-analysis of survival data, where censoring influences statistical significance of the hazard ratio. We subsequently propose 2 new tests that are based on the total number of observed events and adopt a multiplicative variance component. We compare the performance of the various funnel plot asymmetry tests in an extensive simulation study where we varied the true hazard ratio (0.5 to 1), the number of published trials (N=10 to 100), the degree of censoring within trials (0% to 90%), and the mechanism leading to participant dropout (noninformative versus informative). Results demonstrate that previous well-known tests for detecting funnel plot asymmetry suffer from low power or excessive type-I error rates in meta-analysis of survival data, particularly when trials are affected by participant dropout. Because our novel test (adopting estimates of the asymptotic precision as study weights) yields reasonable power and maintains appropriate type-I error rates, we recommend its use to evaluate funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analysis of survival data. The use of funnel plot asymmetry tests should, however, be avoided when there are few trials available for any meta-analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Survival and clinical outcome of dogs with ischaemic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gredal, Hanne Birgit; Toft, Nils; Westrup, Ulrik

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of the present study were to investigate survival time, possible predictors of survival and clinical outcome in dogs with ischaemic stroke. A retrospective study of dogs with a previous diagnosis of ischaemic stroke diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed....... The association between survival and the hypothesised risk factors was examined using univariable exact logistic regression. Survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Twenty-two dogs were identified. Five dogs (23%) died within the first 30days of the stroke event. Median survival in 30-day...... survivors was 505days. Four dogs (18%) were still alive by the end of the study. Right-sided lesions posed a significantly increased risk of mortality with a median survival time in dogs with right-sided lesions of 24days vs. 602days in dogs with left sided lesions (P=0.006). Clinical outcome was considered...

  18. Adjuvant Hormone Therapy May Improve Survival in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: Results of the AHT Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eeles, Rosalind A; Morden, James P; Gore, Martin; Mansi, Janine; Glees, John; Wenczl, Miklos; Williams, Christopher; Kitchener, Henry; Osborne, Richard; Guthrie, David; Harper, Peter; Bliss, Judith M

    2015-12-10

    To assess the effects of adjuvant hormone therapy (AHT) on survival and disease outcome in women with epithelial ovarian cancer. Participants were premenopausal and postmenopausal women who had been diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer (any International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage) 9 or fewer months previously. Ineligible patients included those with deliberately preserved ovarian function, with a history of a hormone-dependent malignancy, or with any contraindications to hormone-replacement therapy. Patients were centrally randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to either AHT for 5 years after random assignment or no AHT (control). Main outcome measures were overall survival (OS), defined as time from random assignment to death (any cause), and relapse-free survival, defined as time from random assignment to relapse or death (any cause). Patients who continued, alive and relapse free, were censored at their last known follow-up. A total of 150 patients (n = 75, AHT; n = 75, control) were randomly assigned from 1990 to 1995 from 19 centers in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Hungary; all patients were included in intention-to-treat analyses. The median follow-up in alive patients is currently 19.1 years. Of the 75 patients with AHT, 53 (71%) have died compared with 68 (91%) of 75 patients in the control group. OS was significantly improved in patients who were receiving AHT (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.90; P = .011). A similar effect was seen for relapse-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.97; P = .032). Effects remained after adjustment for known prognostic factors. These results show that women who have severe menopausal symptoms after ovarian cancer treatment can safely take hormone-replacement therapy, and this may, in fact, infer benefits in terms of OS in addition to known advantages in terms of quality of life. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  19. Role of Aspirin in Breast Cancer Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wendy Y; Holmes, Michelle D

    2017-07-01

    Chemotherapy and hormonal therapy have significantly decreased breast cancer mortality, although with considerable side effects and financial costs. In the USA, over three million women are living after a breast cancer diagnosis and are eager for new treatments that are low in toxicity and cost. Multiple observational studies have reported improved breast cancer survival with regular aspirin use. Furthermore, pooled data from five large randomized trials of aspirin for cardiovascular disease showed that subjects on aspirin had decreased risk of cancer mortality and decreased risk of metastatic cancer. Although the potential mechanism for aspirin preventing breast cancer is not known, possible pathways may involve platelets, inflammation, cyclooxygenase (COX) 2, hormones, or PI3 kinase. This review article summarizes the current epidemiologic and clinical trial evidence as well as possible underlying mechanisms that justify current phase III randomized trials of aspirin to improve breast cancer survival.

  20. Survival curves for irradiated cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, D.K.

    1975-01-01

    The subject of the lecture is the probability of survival of biological cells which have been subjected to ionising radiation. The basic mathematical theories of cell survival as a function of radiation dose are developed. A brief comparison with observed survival curves is made. (author)

  1. A hybrid approach of gene sets and single genes for the prediction of survival risks with gene expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, Junhee; Davis, Ronald W; Xiao, Wenzhong

    2015-01-01

    Accumulated biological knowledge is often encoded as gene sets, collections of genes associated with similar biological functions or pathways. The use of gene sets in the analyses of high-throughput gene expression data has been intensively studied and applied in clinical research. However, the main interest remains in finding modules of biological knowledge, or corresponding gene sets, significantly associated with disease conditions. Risk prediction from censored survival times using gene sets hasn't been well studied. In this work, we propose a hybrid method that uses both single gene and gene set information together to predict patient survival risks from gene expression profiles. In the proposed method, gene sets provide context-level information that is poorly reflected by single genes. Complementarily, single genes help to supplement incomplete information of gene sets due to our imperfect biomedical knowledge. Through the tests over multiple data sets of cancer and trauma injury, the proposed method showed robust and improved performance compared with the conventional approaches with only single genes or gene sets solely. Additionally, we examined the prediction result in the trauma injury data, and showed that the modules of biological knowledge used in the prediction by the proposed method were highly interpretable in biology. A wide range of survival prediction problems in clinical genomics is expected to benefit from the use of biological knowledge.

  2. UK Renal Registry 15th annual report: Chapter 5 survival and causes of death of UK adult patients on renal replacement therapy in 2011: national and centre-specific analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenkamp, Retha; Shaw, Catriona; Feest, Terry

    2013-01-01

    These analyses examine a) survival from the start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) based on the total incident UK RRT population reported to the UK Renal Registry, b) survival of prevalent patients. Changes in survival between 1997 and 2011 are also reported. Survival was calculated for both incident and prevalent patients on RRT and compared between the UK countries after adjustment for age. Survival of incident patients (starting RRT during 2010) was calculated both from the start of RRT and from 90 days after starting RRT, both with and without censoring at transplantation. Prevalent dialysis patients were censored at transplantation; this means that the patient is considered alive up to the point of transplantation, but the patient's status post-transplant is not considered. Both Kaplan-Meier and Cox adjusted models were used to calculate survival. Causes of death were analysed for both groups. The relative risk of death was calculated compared with the general UK population. The unadjusted 1 year after 90 day survival for patients starting RRT in 2010 was 87.3%, representing an increase from the previous year (86.6%). In incident patients aged 18-64 years, the unadjusted 1 year survival had risen from 86.0% in patients starting RRT in 1997 to 92.6% in patients starting RRT in 2010 and for those aged ≥65 it had increased from 63.9% to 77.0% over the same period. The age-adjusted one year survival (adjusted to age 60) of prevalent dialysis patients increased from 88.1% in the 2001 cohort to 89.8% in the 2010 cohort. Prevalent diabetic patient one year survival rose from 82.1% in the 2002 cohort to 84.7% in the 2010 cohort. The age-standardised mortality ratio for prevalent RRT patients compared with the general population was 18 for age group 30-34 and 2.5 at age 85+ years. In the prevalent RRT dialysis population, cardiovascular disease accounted for 22% of deaths, infection and treatment withdrawal 18% each and 25% were recorded as other causes of death

  3. Surviving Sepsis Campaign

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rhodes, Andrew; Evans, Laura E; Alhazzani, Waleed

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012." DESIGN: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings...... (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups......, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low...

  4. Surviving Sepsis Campaign

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rhodes, Andrew; Evans, Laura E; Alhazzani, Waleed

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012". DESIGN: A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings...... (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups......, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low...

  5. Surviving relatives after suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørrelykke, Helle; Cohrt, Pernille

    and that suicide has become a subject of research, prevention and treatment. Auxiliary Strategies In the 1990s there have been established the Centre for Suicide Research and the Centre for Prevention of Suicide in Denmark and there has been drafted a national policy document which focuses on the need......We would like to focus on the surviving relatives after suicides, because it is generally accepted that it is especially difficult to recover after the loss from suicide and because we know as a fact that one suicide affects five persons on average. Every year approximately 700 people commit...... suicide in Denmark. This means that at least 400 people undergo the trauma it is when one of their near relatives commits suicide. We also know that the loss from suicide involves a lot of conflicting feelings - like anger, shame, guilt and loss and that the lack of therapy/treatment of these difficult...

  6. Another Theory is Possible

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian James

    2016-01-01

    The article argues that dissident voices which attempt to theorise Europe differently and advocate another European trajectory have been largely excluded and left unheard in mainstream discussions over the past decade of scholarship and analysis. Dissident voices in European Union studies are tho...... theory, is possible – indeed, probable....

  7. Possibilities of roentgenological method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivash, Eh.S.; Sal'man, M.M.

    1980-01-01

    Literary and experimental data on estimating possibilities of roentgenologic investigations using an electron optical amplifier, X-ray television and roentgen cinematography are generalized. Different methods of studying gastro-intestinal tract are compared. The advantage of the roentgenologic method over the endoscopic method after stomach resection is shown [ru

  8. Survival analysis of patients with uveal melanoma after organ preserving and liquidation treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. Grishina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rationale: Uveal melanoma is the most common primary malignancy of the eye.Aim: To evaluate survival in patients with uveal melanoma stratified according to the type of treatment and to identify factors significantly associated with their survival.Materials and methods: The study was performed on the data extracted from medical files and follow-up forms of patients with uveal melanoma seen in the Ophthalmological Clinical Hospital of the Department of Healthcare, Moscow, from 1977 to 2012. Analysis of survival was used to assess the life longevity of patients with uveal melanoma. The analysis was censored at January 2013, when vital status (dead or alive of all patients was assessed. The factors included into the study analysis, were those taken from the follow-up forms. The incidence of uveal melanoma in Moscow (2012 was 0.9 per 100,000 of the population, whereas its prevalence was 11.1 per 100,000.Results: 698 patients with uveal melanoma were included into the study, among them 260 (37% men (aged from 19 to 87 years, median age 60 years and 438 (63% women (aged from 18 to 93 years, median age 63 years; therefore, the proportion of women under the follow-up monitoring was by 26% higher than that of men. The liquidation treatment (mostly enucleation was performed in 358 (51% of the patients, whereas the organ preserving treatment in 340 (49%. At 5, 7, and 10 years of the follow-up, the disease-specific survival of patients with uveal melanoma after the organ preserving treatment (median survival has not been reached and after the liquidation treatment (median, 88 months were 89 ± 2, 83 ± 3, and 75 ± 4% versus 63 ± 3, 52 ± 4, and 47 ± 5%, respectively (р = 0.001. Overall survival and disease-specific survival of the patients after the liquidation treatment were significantly lower than in the patients after the organ-preserving treatment. According to multiple regression analysis, this was associated not with the type of

  9. Environmental pollution has sex-dependent effects on local survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eeva, Tapio; Hakkarainen, Harri; Laaksonen, Toni; Lehikoinen, Esa

    2006-01-01

    Environmental pollutants cause a potential hazard for survival in free-living animal populations. We modelled local survival (including emigration) by using individual mark–recapture histories of males and females in a population of a small insectivorous passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) living around a point source of heavy metals (copper smelter). Local survival of F. hypoleuca females did not differ between polluted and unpolluted environments. Males, however, showed a one-third higher local-survival probability in the polluted area. Low fledgling production was generally associated with decreased local survival, but males in the polluted area showed relatively high local survival, irrespective of their fledgling number. A possible explanation of higher local survival of males in the polluted area could be a pollution-induced change in hormone (e.g. corticosterone or testosterone) levels of males. It could make them to invest more on their own survival or affect the hormonal control of breeding dispersal. The local survival of males decreased in the polluted area over the study period along with the simultaneous decrease in heavy metal emissions. This temporal trend is in agreement with the stress hormone hypothesis. PMID:17148387

  10. Survival of microorganisms in smectite clays: Implications for Martian exobiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Deborah M.; Vestal, J. Robie

    1992-08-01

    Manned exploration of Mars may result in the contamination of that planet with terrestrial microbes, a situation requiring assessment of the survival potential of possible contaminating organisms. In this study, the survival of Bacillus subtilis, Azotobacter chroococcum, and the enteric bacteriophage MS2 was examined in clays representing terrestrial (Wyoming type montmorillonite) or Martian (Fe 3+-montmorillonite) soils exposed to terrestrial and Martian environmental conditions of temperature and atmospheric pressure and composition, but not to UV flux or oxidizing conditions. Survival of bacteria was determined by standard plate counts and biochemical and physiological measurements over 112 days. Extractable lipid phosphate was used to measure microbial biomass, and the rate of 14C-acetate incorporation into microbial lipids was used to determine physiological activity. MS2 survival was assayed by plaque counts. Both bacterial types survived terrestrial or Martian conditions in Wyoming montmorillonite better than Martian conditions in Fe 3+-montmorillonite. Decreased survival may have been caused by the lower pH of the Fe 3+-montmorillonite compared to Wyoming montmorillonite. MS2 survived simulated Mars conditions better than the terrestrial environment, likely due to stabilization of the virus caused by the cold and dry conditions of the simulated Martian environment. The survival of MS2 in the simulated Martian environment is the first published indication that viruses may be able to survive in Martian type soils. This work may have implications for planetary protection for future Mars missions.

  11. Multiple neoplasms, single primaries, and patient survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amer MH

    2014-03-01

    clinical behavior with longer survival rates, possibly related to genetic predisposition. Keywords: genetic susceptibility, incidence study, hereditary, multiple primary neoplasms, survival analysis, prognosis

  12. Survive or Thrive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Helen

    2011-01-01

    With local lumber mills shutting down, Robert Kenning, an instructor at Salish Kootenai College in western Montana, and the tribe's forestry director, came up with an idea. Kenning landed a $200,000 Department of Agriculture grant in 2010 to explore the possibility of turning logging scraps and smaller trees into chips or pellets that could be…

  13. Network survivability performance (computer diskette)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-11-01

    File characteristics: Data file; 1 file. Physical description: 1 computer diskette; 3 1/2 in.; high density; 2.0MB. System requirements: Mac; Word. This technical report has been developed to address the survivability of telecommunications networks including services. It responds to the need for a common understanding of, and assessment techniques for network survivability, availability, integrity, and reliability. It provides a basis for designing and operating telecommunication networks to user expectations for network survivability.

  14. Depression and Liver Transplant Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meller, William; Welle, Nicole; Sutley, Kristen; Thurber, Steven

    Patients who underwent liver transplantation and experienced clinical depression have heretofore evinced lower survival rates when compared to nondepressed counterparts. To investigate the hypothesis that transplant patients who seek and obtain medical treatment for depression would circumvent the prior reduced survival findings. A total of 765 patients with liver transplants were scrutinized for complications following transplantation. Further, 104 patients experienced posttransplant depression as manifested by diagnosis and treatment by medical personnel. Survival analyses were conducted comparing hazard and survival curves for these selected individuals and the remainder of transplant patients. Contrary to prior data and consistent with the aforementioned hypothesis, median survival durations, survival curves, and hazard functions (controlling for age and prolonged posttransplant survival for the depressed patients were better. The improved survival for the depressed patients may simply be related to an amelioration of depressed symptoms via antidepressant medications. However, this interpretation would only be congruent with reduced hazard, not elevated survival, beyond the norm (median) for other transplant participants. Assuming the reliability and generalization of our findings, perhaps a reasonable and compelling interpretation is that combined with the effectiveness of antidepressant medications, the seeking and receiving treatment for depression is a type of proxy measure of a more global pattern of adherence to recommended posttransplant medical regimens. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Ship Systems Survivability Test Site

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Area for testing survivability of shipboard systems to include electrical, communications, and fire suppression. Multipurpose test range for supporting gun firing,...

  16. Surviving a Suicide Attempt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Al-Harrasi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Suicide is a global phenomenon in all regions of the world affecting people of all age groups. It has detrimental consequences on patients, their families, and the community as a whole. There have been numerous risk factors described for suicide including mental illness, stressful life situations, loss of social support, and general despair. The association of suicide with Islam has not been extensively studied. The common impression from clinical practice is that being a practicing Muslim reduces the risk of suicide. Another factor associated with suicide is starting a patient on antidepressants. However, this has been questioned recently. This report describes a middle-aged man with depression and multiple social stressors who survived a serious suicide attempt. The discussion will focus on the factors that lead him to want to end his life and the impact of the assumed protective factors such as religious belief and family support on this act of self-harm. Such patients can be on the edge when there is an imbalance between risk factors (such as depression, insomnia, and psychosocial stressors and protective factors (like religious affiliation and family support. All physicians are advised to assess the suicide risk thoroughly in patients with depression regardless of any presumed protective factor.

  17. Survival and weak chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nee, Sean

    2018-05-01

    Survival analysis in biology and reliability theory in engineering concern the dynamical functioning of bio/electro/mechanical units. Here we incorporate effects of chaotic dynamics into the classical theory. Dynamical systems theory now distinguishes strong and weak chaos. Strong chaos generates Type II survivorship curves entirely as a result of the internal operation of the system, without any age-independent, external, random forces of mortality. Weak chaos exhibits (a) intermittency and (b) Type III survivorship, defined as a decreasing per capita mortality rate: engineering explicitly defines this pattern of decreasing hazard as 'infant mortality'. Weak chaos generates two phenomena from the normal functioning of the same system. First, infant mortality- sensu engineering-without any external explanatory factors, such as manufacturing defects, which is followed by increased average longevity of survivors. Second, sudden failure of units during their normal period of operation, before the onset of age-dependent mortality arising from senescence. The relevance of these phenomena encompasses, for example: no-fault-found failure of electronic devices; high rates of human early spontaneous miscarriage/abortion; runaway pacemakers; sudden cardiac death in young adults; bipolar disorder; and epilepsy.

  18. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  19. Towards the Possible Film

    OpenAIRE

    Dawood, S.

    2014-01-01

    Towards the Possible Film is a study in parallel universes – and the sparks that fly when worlds collide. As much of a projection into a far-off future as a flashback to a long-forgotten past, Dawood’s vivid 20-minute tableau combines the resonance of a mythic fable with the hallucinatory haziness of a waking dream. Emerging from the waves, as if transported from another dimension, two blue-skinned astronauts materialise on a red-rocked shoreline (Sidi Ifni in Southern Morocco). Blinking into...

  20. Future possibilities at ISOLDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, H.

    1991-01-01

    The performance of the ISOLDE facility at CERN is summarized and recently achieved target/ion-source and separator improvements are presented. New ion source principles being tested include multistep laser ionization, bunched surface ionization, and ECR ion source. The prospects for the high-resolution separator ISOLDE-3 are described. The possibilities of a new ISOLDE installation at the PS Booster at CERN are presented together with the planned features of the new facility. Add-on devices to improve the performance that are presently being discussed are an electrostatic sector field, an electron beam ion stripper, and a high voltage platform for energy boosting. (author) 7 refs.; 5 figs

  1. Socioeconomic position and survival after lung cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalton, Susanne O; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Jakobsen, Erik

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To address social inequality in survival after lung cancer, it is important to consider how socioeconomic position (SEP) influences prognosis. We investigated whether SEP influenced receipt of first-line treatment and whether socioeconomic differences in survival could be explained...... by differences in stage, treatment and comorbidity. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In the Danish Lung Cancer Register, we identified 13 045 patients with lung cancer diagnosed in 2004-2010, with information on stage, histology, performance status and first-line treatment. We obtained age, gender, vital status, comorbid...... with stepwise inclusion of possible mediators. RESULTS: For both low- and high-stage lung cancer, adjusted ORs for first-line treatment were reduced in patients with short education and low income, although the OR for education did not reach statistical significance in men with high-stage disease. Patients...

  2. Possible future HERA analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiser, Achim

    2015-12-01

    A variety of possible future analyses of HERA data in the context of the HERA data preservation programme is collected, motivated, and commented. The focus is placed on possible future analyses of the existing ep collider data and their physics scope. Comparisons to the original scope of the HERA pro- gramme are made, and cross references to topics also covered by other participants of the workshop are given. This includes topics on QCD, proton structure, diffraction, jets, hadronic final states, heavy flavours, electroweak physics, and the application of related theory and phenomenology topics like NNLO QCD calculations, low-x related models, nonperturbative QCD aspects, and electroweak radiative corrections. Synergies with other collider programmes are also addressed. In summary, the range of physics topics which can still be uniquely covered using the existing data is very broad and of considerable physics interest, often matching the interest of results from colliders currently in operation. Due to well-established data and MC sets, calibrations, and analysis procedures the manpower and expertise needed for a particular analysis is often very much smaller than that needed for an ongoing experiment. Since centrally funded manpower to carry out such analyses is not available any longer, this contribution not only targets experienced self-funded experimentalists, but also theorists and master-level students who might wish to carry out such an analysis.

  3. A Garden of Possibilities

    CERN Document Server

    Carolyn Lee

    2010-01-01

    Renowned landscape architect and designer Charles Jencks recently visited CERN along with the architect of the Globe, Hervé Dessimoz, to investigate the possibility of creating a cosmic-inspired garden at the entrance to the Laboratory.   Left to right: Charles Jencks, Peter Higgs, Rolf Heuer in the garden of cosmic speculation. Photo credit: University of Edinburgh/Maverick photo agency Charles Jencks is a master at designing whimsical, intriguing outdoor spaces that hold a much deeper meaning than just an interesting view. His Garden of Cosmic Speculation at his home in Scotland uses designs recalling cosmic forces, DNA, organic cells, spirals of time, black holes and the Universe, made with landform, plants, sculpture and water to re-shape the natural landscape. One of the possible symbols for CERN that came to his mind was the cosmic uroborus, an ancient Egyptian symbol of a snake eating its own tail dating back to 1600 BC. “Many scientists have discussed this as a poss...

  4. Survival chance in papillary thyroid cancer in Hungary: individual survival probability estimation using the Markov method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esik, Olga; Tusnady, Gabor; Daubner, Kornel; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Fuezy, Marton; Szentirmay, Zoltan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The typically benign, but occasionally rapidly fatal clinical course of papillary thyroid cancer has raised the need for individual survival probability estimation, to tailor the treatment strategy exclusively to a given patient. Materials and methods: A retrospective study was performed on 400 papillary thyroid cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years to establish a clinical database for uni- and multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors related to survival (Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression). For a more precise prognosis estimation, the effect of the most important clinical events were then investigated on the basis of a Markov renewal model. The basic concept of this approach is that each patient has an individual disease course which (besides the initial clinical categories) is affected by special events, e.g. internal covariates (local/regional/distant relapses). On the supposition that these events and the cause-specific death are influenced by the same biological processes, the parameters of transient survival probability characterizing the speed of the course of the disease for each clinical event and their sequence were determined. The individual survival curves for each patient were calculated by using these parameters and the independent significant clinical variables selected from multivariate studies, summation of which resulted in a mean cause-specific survival function valid for the entire group. On the basis of this Markov model, prediction of the cause-specific survival probability is possible for extrastudy cases, if it is supposed that the clinical events occur within new patients in the same manner and with the similar probability as within the study population. Results: The patient's age, a distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the primary tumor size and extent (pT), the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression proved to be

  5. Dying to remember, remembering to survive: mortality salience and survival processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E; Burns, Amy D

    2014-01-01

    Processing items for their relevance to survival improves recall for those items relative to numerous other deep processing encoding techniques. Perhaps related, placing individuals in a mortality salient state has also been shown to enhance retention of items encoded after the morality salience manipulation (e.g., in a pleasantness rating task), a phenomenon we dubbed the "dying-to-remember" (DTR) effect. The experiments reported here further explored the effect and tested the possibility that the DTR effect is related to survival processing. Experiment 1 replicated the effect using different encoding tasks, demonstrating that the effect is not dependent on the pleasantness task. In Experiment 2 the DTR effect was associated with increases in item-specific processing, not relational processing, according to several indices. Experiment 3 replicated the main results of Experiment 2, and tested the effects of mortality salience and survival processing within the same experiment. The DTR effect and its associated difference in item-specific processing were completely eliminated when the encoding task required survival processing. These results are consistent with the interpretation that the mechanisms responsible for survival processing and DTR effects are overlapping.

  6. Survival benefit of surgery in recurrent glioblastoma multiforme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudry, Usama Khalid; Khan, Saad Akhtar; Shamim, Muhammad Shahzad

    2017-12-01

    There is an ongoing debate regarding role of surgery for recurrent glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Older literature hinted at only modest survival benefits with surgery and a high rate of morbidity. However, more recent literature suggests better survival that may be attributed to better surgical techniques and better options in adjuvant treatment. Herein the authors review recent literature with regards to the possible role of surgery in recurrent GBM and also look into the key factors impacting second surgery. .

  7. Survival Analysis of Faculty Retention and Promotion in the Social Sciences by Gender.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet M Box-Steffensmeier

    Full Text Available Recruitment and retention of talent is central to the research performance of universities. Existing research shows that, while men are more likely than women to be promoted at the different stages of the academic career, no such difference is found when it comes to faculty retention rates. Current research on faculty retention, however, focuses on careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM. We extend this line of inquiry to the social sciences.We follow 2,218 tenure-track assistant professors hired since 1990 in seven social science disciplines at nineteen U.S. universities from time of hire to time of departure. We also track their time to promotion to associate and full professor. Using survival analysis, we examine gender differences in time to departure and time to promotion. Our methods account for censoring and unobserved heterogeneity, as well as effect heterogeneity across disciplines and cohorts.We find no statistically significant differences between genders in faculty retention. However, we do find that men are more likely to be granted tenure than women. When it comes to promotion to full professor, the results are less conclusive, as the effect of gender is sensitive to model specification.The results corroborate previous findings about gender patterns in faculty retention and promotion. They suggest that advances have been made when it comes to gender equality in retention and promotion, but important differences still persist.

  8. Bayesian linear regression with skew-symmetric error distributions with applications to survival analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Rubio, Francisco J.

    2016-02-09

    We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy tails and asymmetry. We propose a general noninformative prior structure for these regression models and show that the corresponding posterior distribution is proper under mild conditions. We extend these propriety results to cases where the response variables are censored. The latter scenario is of interest in the context of accelerated failure time models, which are relevant in survival analysis. We present a simulation study that demonstrates good frequentist properties of the posterior credible intervals associated with the proposed priors. This study also sheds some light on the trade-off between increased model flexibility and the risk of over-fitting. We illustrate the performance of the proposed models with real data. Although we focus on models with univariate response variables, we also present some extensions to the multivariate case in the Supporting Information.

  9. Global Activities and Plant Survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bandick, Roger

    2014-01-01

    the highest exit rates. Moreover, the exit rates of globally engaged plants seem to be unaffected by increased foreign presence, whereas there appears to be a negative impact on the survival rates of non-exporting non-MNE plants. Finally, the result reveals that the survival ratio of plants of acquired...

  10. Radionuclide blood cell survival studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentley, S.A.; Miller, D.T.

    1986-01-01

    Platelet and red cell survival studies are reviewed. The use of 51 Cr and di-isopropylfluoridate labelled with tritium or 32 P is discussed for red cell survival study and 51 Cr and 111 In-oxine are considered as platelet labels. (UK)

  11. Renewable resources - future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Martin H.

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Renewable Energy and Related Greenhouse Gas Abatement Technologies (ACRE), its technologies, commercial relationships and markets. The relevance of ACRE to developing country communities which lack reliable, adequate power supplies, is discussed. The opportunities for mutual collaboration between Australia and the developing countries in the application of renewable energy have never been stronger. Renewable energy promises real advantages to those who deploy it wisely, as well as significant job creation. Education at all level together with operational training, public awareness of what is possible and increased system reliability, are also vital ingredients for acceptance of these new technologies. They underpin successful commercialisation. The author concludes with the hope for a united international cooperative approach to the development of the renewable energy industry. (author)

  12. Dehydration survival of crop plants and its measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Abraham; Tuberosa, Roberto

    2018-01-08

    Dehydration survival under drought stress is defined in this review as the transition from plant activity into a quiescent state of life preservation, which will be terminated by either recovery or death, depending on the stress regime and the plant's resilience. Dehydration survival is a popular phenotype by which functional genomics attempts to test gene function in drought resistance and survival. The available reports on phenotyping and genotyping of dehydration survival in genomic studies indicate that the measurement of this trait is often biased to the extent that misguided interpretations are likely to occur. This review briefly discusses the physiological basis of dehydration survival in resurrection plants and crop plants, and concludes that in phenotyping dehydration survival there is a need to distinguish between dehydration avoidance and dehydration tolerance (also termed desiccation tolerance) in affecting survival and recovery. Without this distinction, functional genomics studies of the trait might be biased. Survival due to dehydration avoidance is expressed by the capacity to maintain a relatively high plant water status as the plant is desiccated. Survival due to dehydration tolerance is expressed by delayed mortality (mortality at a relatively low plant water status) as affected by the resilience of plant metabolism. The common test of dehydration survival, using the relative recovery after a given number of stress days, is therefore insufficient because it is mainly driven by dehydration avoidance and so ignores a possible role for dehydration tolerance. Conceivable methods for more accurate phenotyping of the two components of dehydration survival are proposed and discussed. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  14. Assessment of a five-year survival on hemodialysis in Brazil: a cohort of 3,082 incident patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Paulo Strogoff de Matos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Brazil has the third largest contingent of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD worldwide. However, little is known regarding survival rate and predictors of mortality risk in that population, which are the purposes of this study. A total of 3,082 patients incident on HD, from 2000 to 2004, at 25 dialysis facilities distributed among 7 out of 26 states of Brazil were followed-up until 2009. Patients were 52 ± 16 years-old, 57.8% men, and 20.4%, diabetics. The primary outcome was all causes of mortality. Data were censored at five years of follow-up. The global five-year survival rate was 58.2%. In the Cox proportional model, variables associated with risk of death were: age (hazard ratio - HR = 1.44 per decade, p < 0.0001, diabetes (HR = 1.51, p < 0.0001, serum albumin (HR = 0.76 per g/dL, p = 0.001, creatinine (HR = 0.92 per mg/dL, p < 0.0001, and phosphorus (HR = 1.06 per mg/dL, p = 0.04. The present results show that the mortality rate on HD in this Brazilian cohort was relatively low, but the population is younger and with a lower prevalence of diabetes than the ones reported for developed countries.

  15. ep possibility for ISABELLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.

    1977-01-01

    The feasibility of adding an electron ring to ISABELLE is discussed in terms of cost, physics goals, count rate estimates, the detector requirements, and the possibility of producing intermediate bosons. The purpose of adding an electron ring to ISABELLE must be considered to be the study of e + p → e + x, e - p → νx, and e + p → anti νx. Other processes, such as W production, are less interesting for an ep ring than for a pp ring. However, there may be other new particles--such as leptonic quarks--that only turn up here. These processes are, however, exciting. In a 30 day run at L = 10 32 cm -2 sec -1 300 neutrino events are expected at q 2 > 5000 GeV 2 where the propagator is expected to be less than 1 / 4 . Thus the value of the mass in the propagator can be measured to 5%. The ep cross section would be measured over the momentum transfer range 1 2 2 ). This range is large enough that a logarithmic deviation from scaling can be distinguished easily from a power law approach to scaling

  16. A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

    2015-01-01

    In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

  17. Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinberu Seyoum

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH. Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic. Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%, with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR: 23–37 years. Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR and resulted in 66 (14.5% deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months. The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC. The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1, baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97, baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2, and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1. Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART

  18. Nuclear disarmament or survival of nuclear arms?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroot, J.P.

    1997-01-01

    START II has not yet been ratified by the US or Russian parliaments. Doubts may be raised over whether it will ever be. In the best case there will be more than 20,000 nuclear warheads in the arsenals of these two countries by the year 2003. All five nuclear states consider that nuclear weapons are an essential component of their national defense. It might sound childish but, the whole story is is so often childish: the five powers refuse to break their nuclear toys. They take even all possible measures to maintain and improve them and to ensure the survivability of their arsenals. To prepare for the next arms race..

  19. Cardiovascular disease incidence and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byberg, Stine; Agyemang, Charles; Zwisler, Ann Dorthe

    2016-01-01

    Studies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and survival show varying results between different ethnic groups. Our aim was to add a new dimension by exploring the role of migrant status in combination with ethnic background on incidence of-and survival from-CVD and more specifically acute...... of some types of cardiovascular disease compared to Danish-born. Family-reunified migrants on the other hand had lower rates of CVD. All migrants had better survival than Danish-born indicating that migrants may not always be disadvantaged in health....

  20. Stimulated human fibroblast cell survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, B.P.; Gale, K.L.; Einspenner, M.; Greenstock, C.L.; Gentner, N.E.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques for cloning cultured mammalian cells have supported the most universally-accepted method for measuring the induction of lethality by geno-toxicants such as ionizing radiation: the 'survival of colony-forming ability (CFA)' assay. Since most cultured human cell lines exhibit plating efficiency (i.e. the percentage of cells that are capable of reproductively surviving and dividing to form visible colonies) well below 100%, such assays are in essence 'survival of plating efficiency' assays, since they are referred to the plating (or cloning) efficiency of control (i.e. unirradiated) cells. (author). 8 refs., 2 figs

  1. Pesticides: chemicals for survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, D.A.

    1981-01-01

    Pesticides are chemicals used to control pests such as insects, weeds, plant diseases, nematodes, and rodents. The increased use of pesticides since 1945 has greatly aided the increase in crop production, protected livestock from diseases such as trypanosomiasis, protected man from diseases such as malaria and filarisis, decreased losses of stored grain, and has generally improved man's welfare. Despite the enormous benefits derived from pesticides these chemicals are not problem-free. Many pesticides are toxic to living organisms and interfere with specific biochemical systems. To measure the very small quantities of a pesticide radiolabelled chemicals are frequently essential, particularly to measure changes in the chemical structure of the pesticide, movement of the pesticide in soil, plants, or animals, amounts of pesticide going through various steps in food processing, etc. The use of radiolabelled pesticides is shortly shown for metabolism of the pesticide in crop species, metabolism in ruminant, in chickens and eggs, in soil, and possibly leaching and sorption in soil, hydrolysis, bio-concentration, microbial and photodegradation, and toxicity studies

  2. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  3. The Survival of the Wisest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salk, Jonas

    1975-01-01

    Suggests that humans differ from other living organisms in the ability to exercise learned behavior and the individual will, which may allow people to make the changes in values necessary to survive on this planet. (DW)

  4. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

    2015-02-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  5. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  6. Smoking may modify the association between neoadjuvant chemotherapy and survival from ovarian cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelemen, Linda E; Warren, Graham W; Koziak, Jennifer M; Köbel, Martin; Steed, Helen

    2016-01-01

    Tobacco smoking by cancer patients is associated with increased mortality. Less is known of the impact of smoking on recurrence risk and interaction with chemotherapy treatment. We examined these associations in ovarian cancer. Patients were identified from the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1978 and 2010 and were oversampled for less-common histologic ovarian tumor types. Medical records were abstracted for 678 eligible patients on lifestyle, medical and cancer treatment, and review of pathology slides was performed for 605 patients. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age at diagnosis, race, stage and residual disease. Among patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (N=432), current smoking was significantly associated with shorter duration of overall (OS; HR, 8.56; 95% CI, 1.50-48.7) and progression-free (PFS; HR, 5.74; 95% CI, 1.05-31.4) survival from mucinous ovarian cancer only. There was no significant association between neoadjuvant chemotherapy and survival. However, among patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (N=44), current smokers had shorter PFS (HR, 4.32; 95% CI, 1.36-13.8; N=32 progressed/9 censored events) compared to never smokers, but the HRs were not statistically different across smoking categories (P interaction=0.87). Adverse associations were observed between smoking status and OS or PFS among patients with mucinous ovarian cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. No significant effect was found from neoadjuvant chemotherapy on PFS overall; however, smoking may modify this association. Although needing replication, these findings suggest that patients may benefit from smoking cessation interventions prior to treatment with chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Customer service skills for survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAtee, L F

    1999-11-01

    As APICS practitioners, we all must share a common goal. How can we contribute to our company's success? Success can be measured in positive terms of market share, growth, profitability, return on investment, or some combination thereof. Each company must establish its own definition of success. For the purposes of this article, success will be equated to one word that we can all readily identify with: survival. What skills do we need to survive in the marketplace of the next millennium?

  8. Prolongation of islet allograft survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacy, P.E.; Davie, J.M.; Finke, E.H.; Scharp, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    Pretreatment of donor rats with irradiation and silica followed by in vitro culture of the islets for 1 to 2 days prolonged survival of allografts across a minor histocompatibility barrier if hand-picked, clean islets were used for transplantation. Pretreatment of donor rats with irradiation and silica in conjunction with a single injection of antilymphocyte serum (ALS) into the recipient produced a prolongation of survival of hand-picked islets transplanted across a major histocompatibility barrier

  9. Operational slack and venture survival

    OpenAIRE

    Azadegan, Arash; Patel, Pankaj; Parida, Vinit

    2013-01-01

    Slack can act as a double-edged sword. While it can buffer against environmental threats to help ensure business continuity, slack canalso be costly and reduce profitability. In this study, we focus on operational slack, the form related to the firm’s production processes. We investigate the role of operational slack on firm survival during its venture stage, when its survival is significantly challenged by environmental threats. Specifically, we explore how change in three types of environme...

  10. HTC: May survive in bipolar world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Netra Pal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The core assets of HTC are people, innovations, and technology. But in the recent quarters, HTC has started retrenching people even from R&D divisions which are responsible for innovation and developing new technologies. It means HTC's core assets are depleting. HTC was known for its cutting edge technology of 16mp camera and high speed '4G' technology but performing badly in the last two and half year. Why is it so? Paper objectives are to identify reasons for its downfall of HTC, distress signals for HTC downfall, and possible revival strategies for survival of HTC in Bipolar world (Samsung and Apple of smartphones makers. In addition, research paper present eight research proposition/ questions with respect to present state of HTC and its future and possible answers to these research propositions/ questions. Research paper ends with concluding remarks in the context of HTC future.

  11. Long survival in a 69,XXX triploid infant in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliopoulos, Dimitrios; Vassiliou, Georgia; Sekerli, Eleni; Sidiropoulou, Vasiliki; Tsiga, Alexandra; Dimopoulou, Despina; Voyiatzis, Nikolaos

    2005-12-30

    The live birth of a triploidy infant is a very rare event and death usually occurs within the first hours of life. Triploid cases with a survival of more than two months are infrequent. We report on an infant with a 69,XXX chromosome constitution who survived 164 days. Chromosomal analysis demonstrated a 69,XXX karyotype with no evidence of mosaicism. This is the longest survival reported for this condition to date in Greece and the fourth longest worldwide. The infant was admitted to our clinic several times due to respiratory problems, and supplementary oxygen was required. The improved survival of our case was possibly due to better management of respiratory illness and prematurity, and these are essential factors that physicians should consider carefully with such rare cases.

  12. Does HPV status influence survival after vulvar cancer?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Christina Louise; Sand, Freja Laerke; Hoffmann Frederiksen, Marie

    2018-01-01

    High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is essential in the carcinogenesis of a substantial part of anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers and has additionally been shown to be a possible predictive marker for survival, especially in oropharyngeal cancer. Studies examining the influence of HPV...... status on survival after vulvar cancer have been conflicting and limited by small study populations. Therefore, the aim of this review and meta-analysis was to examine whether HPV status influences survival after vulvar cancer, which, to our knowledge, has not been done before. We conducted a systematic...... search of PubMed, Cochrane Library and Embase to identify studies examining survival after histologically verified and HPV tested vulvar cancer. A total of 18 studies were eligible for inclusion. Study-specific and pooled HRs of the 5-year OS and DFS were calculated using a fixed effects model. The I2...

  13. Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

    2012-01-01

    The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

  14. Effect of fibrinolysis inhibitors on survival time of irradiated rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smok, W.

    1988-01-01

    The possibilities of alleviation of the gastrointestinal syndrome of acute radiation sickness by modification of haemorrhagic diathesis using EACA and traskolan were studied. A significant prolongation of the mean survival time was obtained in the irradiated rats treated with EACA. 7 tabs., 10 refs. (author)

  15. Survival rates in bankruptcy systems : overlooking the evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couwenberg, Oscar

    2001-01-01

    Extensive research on bankruptcy still has not made it possible to end the efficiency discussion concerning the need for a reorganization provision in bankruptcy laws. In this paper, I discuss the pervasiveness of asset sales in bankruptcy procedures and the effect it has on survival rates. Without

  16. Cell Survival Signaling in Neuroblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megison, Michael L.; Gillory, Lauren A.; Beierle, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor of childhood and is responsible for over 15% of pediatric cancer deaths. Neuroblastoma tumorigenesis and malignant transformation is driven by overexpression and dominance of cell survival pathways and a lack of normal cellular senescence or apoptosis. Therefore, manipulation of cell survival pathways may decrease the malignant potential of these tumors and provide avenues for the development of novel therapeutics. This review focuses on several facets of cell survival pathways including protein kinases (PI3K, AKT, ALK, and FAK), transcription factors (NF-κB, MYCN and p53), and growth factors (IGF, EGF, PDGF, and VEGF). Modulation of each of these factors decreases the growth or otherwise hinders the malignant potential of neuroblastoma, and many therapeutics targeting these pathways are already in the clinical trial phase of development. Continued research and discovery of effective modulators of these pathways will revolutionize the treatment of neuroblastoma. PMID:22934706

  17. Survival of Sami cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Soininen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The incidence of cancer among the indigenous Sami people of Northern Finland is lower than among the Finnish general population. The survival of Sami cancer patients is not known, and therefore it is the object of this study. Study design. The cohort consisted of 2,091 Sami and 4,161 non-Sami who lived on 31 December 1978 in the two Sami municipalities of Inari and Utsjoki, which are located in Northern Finland and are 300–500 km away from the nearest central hospital. The survival experience of Sami and non-Sami cancer patients diagnosed in this cohort during 1979–2009 was compared with that of the Finnish patients outside the cohort. Methods. The Sami and non-Sami cancer patients were matched to other Finnish cancer patients for gender, age and year of diagnosis and for the site of cancer. An additional matching was done for the stage at diagnosis. Cancer-specific survival analyses were made using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression modelling. Results. There were 204 Sami and 391 non-Sami cancer cases in the cohort, 20,181 matched controls without matching with stage, and 7,874 stage-matched controls. In the cancer-specific analysis without stage variable, the hazard ratio for Sami was 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.85–1.30 and for non-Sami 1.02 (0.86–1.20, indicating no difference between the survival of those groups and other patients in Finland. Likewise, when the same was done by also matching the stage, there was no difference in cancer survival. Conclusion. Long distances to medical care or Sami ethnicity have no influence on the cancer patient survival in Northern Finland.

  18. Aircraft Survivability: Survivability in The Low Altitude Regime, Summer 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    elevation, sun location, temperature, humidity, ozone level, visibility, cloud coverage, and wind speed and direction. Survivability in the Low Altitude...JASP Summer PMSG 14–16 July 2009 Key West, FL AUG 45th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit 2–5 August 2009 Denver, CO

  19. Female Survival Advantage Relates to Male Inferiority Rather Than Female Superiority: A Hypothesis Based on the Impact of Age and Stroke Severity on 1-Week to 1-Year Case Fatality in 40,155 Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, T.S.; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2010-01-01

    , and whether female survival advantage applies only to patients for whom stroke is the most likely cause of death. Methods: The Danish National Indicator Project, a registry designed to list all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark beginning in March 2001, had 40,155 registered patients as of February 2007...... until death or censoring. Case fatality (stratified by 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year) in men and women was correlated with age and stroke severity. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors was performed by means of multivariate regression analysis. Results: A total of 20,854 (51.9%) men and 19......,301 (48.1%) women were registered. Women were significantly older than men at the time of stroke (74.5 vs 69.7 years, respectively; P

  20. Comparison of cancer survival in New Zealand and Australia, 2006-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Phyu S; Elwood, J Mark; Stevanovic, Vladimir

    2014-12-19

    Previous studies have shown substantially higher mortality rates from cancer in New Zealand compared to Australia, but these studies have not included data on patient survival. This study compares the survival of cancer patients diagnosed in 2006-10 in the whole populations of New Zealand and Australia. Identical period survival methods were used to calculate relative survival ratios for all cancers combined, and for 18 cancers each accounting for more than 50 deaths per year in New Zealand, from 1 to 10 years from diagnosis. Cancer survival was lower in New Zealand, with 5-year relative survival being 4.2% lower in women, and 3.8% lower in men for all cancers combined. Of 18 cancers, 14 showed lower survival in New Zealand; the exceptions, with similar survival in each country, being melanoma, myeloma, mesothelioma, and cervical cancer. For most cancers, the differences in survival were maximum at 1 year after diagnosis, becoming smaller later; however, for breast cancer, the survival difference increased with time after diagnosis. The lower survival in New Zealand, and the higher mortality rates shown earlier, suggest that further improvements in recognition, diagnosis, and treatment of cancer in New Zealand should be possible. As the survival differences are seen soon after diagnosis, issues of early management in primary care and time intervals to diagnosis and treatment may be particularly important.

  1. The association of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters with survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klabatsa, Astero; Lang-Lazdunski, Loic [Guys and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Thoracic Oncology, London (United Kingdom); Chicklore, Sugama; Barrington, Sally F.; Goh, Vicky [Kings College London, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, London (United Kingdom); Cook, Gary J.R. [Kings College London, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, London (United Kingdom); Kings College London, Clinical PET Centre, Division of Imaging Sciences and Biomedical Engineering, St Thomas' Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-02-15

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a disease with poor prognosis despite multimodal therapy but there is variation in survival between patients. Prognostic information is therefore potentially valuable in managing patients, particularly in the context of clinical trials where patients could be stratified according to risk. Therefore we have evaluated the prognostic ability of parameters derived from baseline 2-[{sup 18}F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT). In order to determine the relationships between metabolic activity and prognosis we reviewed all {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans used for pretreatment staging of MPM patients in our institution between January 2005 and December 2011 (n = 60) and measured standardised uptake values (SUV) including mean, maximum and peak values, metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Overall survival (OS) or time to last censor was recorded, as well as histological subtypes. Median follow-up was 12.7 months (1.9-60.9) and median OS was 14.1 months (1.9-54.9). By univariable analysis histological subtype (p = 0.013), TLG (p = 0.024) and MTV (p = 0.038) were significantly associated with OS and SUV{sub max} was borderline (p = 0.051). On multivariable analysis histological subtype and TLG were associated with OS but at borderline statistical significance (p = 0.060 and 0.058, respectively). No statistically significant differences in any PET parameters were found between the epithelioid and non-epithelioid histological subtypes. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters that take into account functional volume (MTV, TLG) show significant associations with survival in patients with MPM before adjusting for histological subtype and are worthy of further evaluation to determine their ability to stratify patients in clinical trials. (orig.)

  2. Biofilm formation enhances Helicobacter pylori survivability in vegetables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Chow Goon; Loke, Mun Fai; Goh, Khean Lee; Vadivelu, Jamuna; Ho, Bow

    2017-04-01

    To date, the exact route and mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori remains elusive. The detection of H. pylori in food using molecular approaches has led us to postulate that the gastric pathogen may survive in the extragastric environment for an extended period. In this study, we show that H. pylori prolongs its survival by forming biofilm and micro-colonies on vegetables. The biofilm forming capability of H. pylori is both strain and vegetable dependent. H. pylori strains were classified into high and low biofilm formers based on their highest relative biofilm units (BU). High biofilm formers survived longer on vegetables compared to low biofilm formers. The bacteria survived better on cabbage compared to other vegetables tested. In addition, images captured on scanning electron and confocal laser scanning microscopes revealed that the bacteria were able to form biofilm and reside as micro-colonies on vegetable surfaces, strengthening the notion of possible survival of H. pylori on vegetables for an extended period of time. Taken together, the ability of H. pylori to form biofilm on vegetables (a common food source for human) potentially plays an important role in its survival, serving as a mode of transmission of H. pylori in the extragastric environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Survival and clinical outcome of dogs with ischaemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gredal, H; Toft, N; Westrup, U; Motta, L; Gideon, P; Arlien-Søborg, P; Skerritt, G C; Berendt, M

    2013-06-01

    The objectives of the present study were to investigate survival time, possible predictors of survival and clinical outcome in dogs with ischaemic stroke. A retrospective study of dogs with a previous diagnosis of ischaemic stroke diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed. The association between survival and the hypothesised risk factors was examined using univariable exact logistic regression. Survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Twenty-two dogs were identified. Five dogs (23%) died within the first 30days of the stroke event. Median survival in 30-day survivors was 505days. Four dogs (18%) were still alive by the end of the study. Right-sided lesions posed a significantly increased risk of mortality with a median survival time in dogs with right-sided lesions of 24days vs. 602days in dogs with left sided lesions (P=0.006). Clinical outcome was considered excellent in seven of 17 (41%) 30-day survivors. Another seven 30-day survivors experienced new acute neurological signs within 6-17months of the initial stroke event; in two of those cases a new ischaemic stroke was confirmed by MRI. In conclusion, dogs with ischaemic stroke have a fair to good prognosis in terms of survival and clinical outcome. However, owners should be informed of the risk of acute death within 30days and of the possibility of new neurological events in survivors. Mortality was increased in dogs with right-sided lesions in this study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Genetic aspects of piglet survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knol, E.F.

    2001-01-01

    Piglet mortality is high. In the USA nearly 20% of the piglets do not survive between late gestation and weaning; 7% of the piglets die during farrowing and some 13% are lost during lactation. These statistics from the USA are no exception to the norm. Selection for increased piglet

  5. Survival analysis II: Cox regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Tripepi, Giovanni; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.

    2011-01-01

    In contrast to the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards regression can provide an effect estimate by quantifying the difference in survival between patient groups and can adjust for confounding effects of other variables. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic concepts of the

  6. Environmental survival of Neisseria meningitidis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeng, Y-L; Martin, L E; Stephens, D S

    2014-01-01

    Neisseria meningitidis is transmitted through the inhalation of large human respiratory droplets, but the risk from contaminated environmental surfaces is controversial. Compared to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumanni, meningococcal viability after desiccation on plastic, glass or metal surfaces decreased rapidly, but viable meningococci were present for up to 72 h. Encapsulation did not provide an advantage for meningococcal environmental survival on environmental surfaces.

  7. Survivability of SCADA Control Loop

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camacho, José; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid

    2009-01-01

    The endorsement of information technologies for critical infrastructures control introduces new threats in their security and surveillance. Along with certain level of protection against attacks, it is desirable for critical processes to survive even if they succeed. A stochastic Petri Nets-based

  8. On possible life on Jupiter's satellite Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmachenko, A. P.

    2018-05-01

    Some of the satellites of Jupiter may well be suitable both for mastering, and for finding possible traces of life there. Among them such satellite like Io - nearest Galilean satellite of Jupiter, and one of the most volcanically active bodies in the solar system. Warming of the mantle is caused by a powerful tidal force from the side of Jupiter. This leads to the heating of some parts of the mantle to a temperature above 1800 K, with an average surface temperature of about 140 K. But under its surface can be safe and even comfortable shelters, where life could once have come from the outside (even in a very primitive form), and could survive to this day. Moreover, according to some model's assumptions, Io could sometime be formed in another part of the Solar system, where the water could exist. Note that on neighboring Galilean satellites now exist significant amounts of water .

  9. Estimating haplotype effects for survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Martinussen, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D

    2010-09-01

    Genetic association studies often investigate the effect of haplotypes on an outcome of interest. Haplotypes are not observed directly, and this complicates the inclusion of such effects in survival models. We describe a new estimating equations approach for Cox's regression model to assess haplotype effects for survival data. These estimating equations are simple to implement and avoid the use of the EM algorithm, which may be slow in the context of the semiparametric Cox model with incomplete covariate information. These estimating equations also lead to easily computable, direct estimators of standard errors, and thus overcome some of the difficulty in obtaining variance estimators based on the EM algorithm in this setting. We also develop an easily implemented goodness-of-fit procedure for Cox's regression model including haplotype effects. Finally, we apply the procedures presented in this article to investigate possible haplotype effects of the PAF-receptor on cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease, and compare our results to those based on the EM algorithm. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Rectal cancer survival in the Nordic countries and Scotland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folkesson, J.; Engholm, G.; Ehrnrooth, E.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to present detailed population-based survival estimates four patients with a rectal adenocarcinoma, using cancer register data supplemented with clinical data. Based oil cancer register data. differences in rectal cancer survival have been reported between countries ill...... Europe. Variation ill the distribution of stage at diagnosis. initial therapy including surgical technique, and comorbidity are possible explanatory factors. Adenocarcinomas in the rectum. diagnosed in 1997 and identified in the national cancer registries in the Nordic countries and Scotland were...

  11. Rectal cancer survival in the Nordic countries and Scotland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folkesson, Joakim; Engholm, Gerda; Ehrnrooth, Eva

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to present detailed population-based survival estimates for patients with a rectal adenocarcinoma, using cancer register data supplemented with clinical data. Based on cancer register data, differences in rectal cancer survival have been reported between countries...... in Europe. Variation in the distribution of stage at diagnosis, initial therapy including surgical technique, and comorbidity are possible explanatory factors. Adenocarcinomas in the rectum, diagnosed in 1997 and identified in the national cancer registries in the Nordic countries and Scotland were included...

  12. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  13. A new algorithm for finding survival coefficients employed in reliability equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouricius, W. G.; Flehinger, B. J.

    1973-01-01

    Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.

  14. Standard model group: Survival of the fittest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, H. B.; Brene, N.

    1983-09-01

    The essential content of this paper is related to random dynamics. We speculate that the world seen through a sub-Planck-scale microscope has a lattice structure and that the dynamics on this lattice is almost completely random, except for the requirement that the random (plaquette) action is invariant under some "world (gauge) group". We see that the randomness may lead to spontaneous symmetry breakdown in the vacuum (spontaneous collapse) without explicit appeal to any scalar field associated with the usual Higgs mechanism. We further argue that the subgroup which survives as the end product of a possible chain of collapses is likely to have certain properties; the most important is that it has a topologically connected center. The standard group, i.e. the group of the gauge theory which combines the Salam-Weinberg model with QCD, has this property.

  15. Standard model group: survival of the fittest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nielsen, H.B. (Niels Bohr Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Nordisk Inst. for Teoretisk Atomfysik, Copenhagen (Denmark)); Brene, N. (Niels Bohr Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark))

    1983-09-19

    The essential content of this paper is related to random dynamics. We speculate that the world seen through a sub-Planck-scale microscope has a lattice structure and that the dynamics on this lattice is almost completely random, except for the requirement that the random (plaquette) action is invariant under some ''world (gauge) group''. We see that the randomness may lead to spontaneous symmetry breakdown in the vacuum (spontaneous collapse) without explicit appeal to any scalar field associated with the usual Higgs mechanism. We further argue that the subgroup which survives as the end product of a possible chain of collapse is likely to have certain properties; the most important is that it has a topologically connected center. The standard group, i.e. the group of the gauge theory which combines the Salam-Weinberg model with QCD, has this property.

  16. Standard model group: survival of the fittest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.B.; Brene, N.

    1983-01-01

    Th essential content of this paper is related to random dynamics. We speculate that the world seen through a sub-Planck-scale microscope has a lattice structure and that the dynamics on this lattice is almost completely random, except for the requirement that the random (plaquette) action is invariant under some ''world (gauge) group''. We see that the randomness may lead to spontaneous symmetry breakdown in the vacuum (spontaneous collapse) without explicit appeal to any scalar field associated with the usual Higgs mechanism. We further argue that the subgroup which survives as the end product of a possible chain of collapse is likely to have certain properties; the most important is that it has a topologically connected center. The standard group, i.e. the group of the gauge theory which combines the Salam-Weinberg model with QCD, has this property. (orig.)

  17. Standard model group survival of the fittest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.B.; Brene, N.

    1983-02-01

    The essential content of this note is related to random dynamics. The authors speculate that the world seen through a sub Planck scale microscope has a lattice structure and that the dynamics on this lattice is almost completely random, except for the requirement that the random (plaquette) action is invariant under some ''world (gauge) group''. It is seen that the randomness may lead to spontaneous symmetry breakdown in the vacuum (spontaneous collapse) without explicit appeal to any scalar field associated with the usual Higgs mechanism. It is further argued that the subgroup which survives as the end product of a possible chain of collapses is likely to have certain properties; the most important is that it has a topologically connected center. The standard group, i.e. the group of the gauge theory which combines the Salam-Weinberg model with QCD, has this property. (Auth.)

  18. The health care market: can hospitals survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, J C

    1980-01-01

    Does it sound familiar? Resources are scarce, competition is tough, and government regulations and a balanced budget are increasingly hard to meet at the same time. This is not the automobile or oil industry but the health care industry, and hospital managers are facing the same problems. And, maintains the author of this article, they must borrow some proven marketing techniques from business to survive in the new health care market. He first describes the features of the new market (the increasing economic power of physicians, new forms of health care delivery, prepaid health plans, and the changing regulatory environment) and then the possible marketing strategies for dealing with them (competing hard for physicians who control the patient flow and diversifying and promoting the mix of services). He also describes various planning solutions that make the most of a community's hospital facilities and affiliations.

  19. Survival, complications and functional outcomes of cemented megaprostheses for high-grade osteosarcoma around the knee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chunlin; Hu, Jianping; Zhu, Kunpeng; Cai, Tao; Ma, Xiaolong

    2018-04-01

    study, a total of 51 complications occurred in 45 patients, and at the end of follow-up, 59 patients had prostheses in situ. The estimated overall five-year and eight-year implant survival rates were 77.7% (95% CI: 67.9-87.5%) and 54.5% (95% CI: 31.4-77.6%), respectively, when patients who died with their original prostheses were censored. In total, 21 (21/108, 19.4%) implants failed, five due to infections (5/21), eight due to aseptic loosening (8/21), four due to local recurrence (4/21), three due to structural failure (3/21) and one due to soft tissue failure (1/21). The average Musculoskeletal Tumor Society Score (MSTS) at the most recent follow-up was 22.9 (9-30) points on a 30-point scale, which indicated an excellent or good functional outcome. Analysis of the results based on implant site revealed a slight difference of the estimated five-year prosthesis survival between implants located in the distal femur and those located in the proximal tibia [86.1% (95% CI: 75.5-97%) versus 66.9% (95% CI: 49.8-83.9%); P = 0.09]. However, the functional outcomes and complication rates of prostheses located in the distal femur were both better than those located in the proximal tibia. With effective management strategies for complications, cemented endoprosthetic reconstruction of the proximal tibia and distal femur using an extensor mechanism reconstruction technique provides a reliable method of reconstruction following tumour resection around the knee. Level of Evidence Level IV, therapeutic study.

  20. [Morphological, optical, and structural characteristics of glass sponge spicules and the photoreceptor hypothesis of their survival].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voznesenskiĭ, S S; Kul'chin, Iu N; Galkina, A N; Sergeev, A A

    2010-01-01

    The morphology, structure, and optical characteristics of spicules of some sea glass sponges have been studied. The results obtained are interpreted from the point of view of their possible role in the survival of the organism of sponges.

  1. Complexity for survival of livings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2007-01-01

    A connection between survivability of livings and complexity of their behavior is established. New physical paradigms-exchange of information via reflections, and chain of abstractions-explaining and describing progressive evolution of complexity in living (active) systems are introduced. A biological origin of these paradigms is associated with a recently discovered mirror neuron that is able to learn by imitation. As a result, an active element possesses the self-nonself images and interacts with them creating the world of mental dynamics. Three fundamental types of complexity of mental dynamics that contribute to survivability are identified. Mathematical model of the corresponding active systems is described by coupled motor-mental dynamics represented by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, respectively, while the progressive evolution of complexity is provided by nonlinear evolution of probability density. Application of the proposed formalism to modeling common-sense-based decision-making process is discussed

  2. Individual social capital and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejlskov, Linda; Mortensen, Rikke N; Overgaard, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The concept of social capital has received increasing attention as a determinant of population survival, but its significance is uncertain. We examined the importance of social capital on survival in a population study while focusing on gender differences. METHODS: We used data from...... a Danish regional health survey with a five-year follow-up period, 2007-2012 (n = 9288, 53.5% men, 46.5% women). We investigated the association between social capital and all-cause mortality, performing separate analyses on a composite measure as well as four specific dimensions of social capital while...... controlling for covariates. Analyses were performed with Cox proportional hazard models by which hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: For women, higher levels of social capital were associated with lower all-cause mortality regardless of age, socioeconomic status, health...

  3. Complexity for survival of livings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zak, Michail [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Advance Computing Algorithms and IVHM Group, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)]. E-mail: Michail.Zak@jpl.nasa.gov

    2007-05-15

    A connection between survivability of livings and complexity of their behavior is established. New physical paradigms-exchange of information via reflections, and chain of abstractions-explaining and describing progressive evolution of complexity in living (active) systems are introduced. A biological origin of these paradigms is associated with a recently discovered mirror neuron that is able to learn by imitation. As a result, an active element possesses the self-nonself images and interacts with them creating the world of mental dynamics. Three fundamental types of complexity of mental dynamics that contribute to survivability are identified. Mathematical model of the corresponding active systems is described by coupled motor-mental dynamics represented by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, respectively, while the progressive evolution of complexity is provided by nonlinear evolution of probability density. Application of the proposed formalism to modeling common-sense-based decision-making process is discussed.

  4. Saudi sands, SCUDS, and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glendon, M P

    1993-01-01

    SCUD attacks were one of many challenges this pediatric nurse practitioner (NP) and Air Force Reserve flight nurse faced daily during Desert Shield and Desert Storm. Providing nursing care to sick and injured patients on board a C141 transport plane en route from Saudi Arabia to Germany was her primary responsibility. Additionally, many hours were spent filling sandbags, attending in-service classes, and practicing putting on a gas mask and protective suit. Although the war has been over for almost 3 years, the effects are long lasting. The author was able to use her wartime experience positively to gain insight into survival in today's violent society. As violence increases, NPs must reshape their focus and educate their clients about survival.

  5. LATERAL SURVIVAL: AN OT ACCOUNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moira Yip

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available When laterals are the targets of phonological processes, laterality may or may not survive. In a fixed feature geometry, [lateral] should be lost if its superordinate node is eliminated by either the spreading of a neighbouring node, or by coda neutralization. So if [lateral] is under Coronal (Blevins 1994, it should be lost under Place assimilation, and if [lateral] is under Sonorant Voicing (Rice & Avery 1991 it should be lost by rules that spread voicing. Yet in some languages lateral survives such spreading intact. Facts like these argue against a universal attachment of [lateral] under either Coronal or Sonorant Voicing, and in favour of an account in terms of markedness constraints on feature-co-occurrence (Padgett 2000. The core of an OT account is that IFIDENTLAT is ranked above whatever causes neutralization, such as SHARE-F or *CODAF. laterality will survive. If these rankings are reversed, we derive languages in which laterality is lost. The other significant factor is markedness. High-ranked feature co-occurrence constraints like *LATDORSAL can block spreading from affecting laterals at all.

  6. Rank-based testing of equal survivorship based on cross-sectional survival data with or without prospective follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary; Qin, Jing

    2015-10-01

    Existing linear rank statistics cannot be applied to cross-sectional survival data without follow-up since all subjects are essentially censored. However, partial survival information are available from backward recurrence times and are frequently collected from health surveys without prospective follow-up. Under length-biased sampling, a class of linear rank statistics is proposed based only on backward recurrence times without any prospective follow-up. When follow-up data are available, the proposed rank statistic and a conventional rank statistic that utilizes follow-up information from the same sample are shown to be asymptotically independent. We discuss four ways to combine these two statistics when follow-up is present. Simulations show that all combined statistics have substantially improved power compared with conventional rank statistics, and a Mantel-Haenszel test performed the best among the proposal statistics. The method is applied to a cross-sectional health survey without follow-up and a study of Alzheimer's disease with prospective follow-up. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Survival probability of a local excitation in a non-Markovian environment: Survival collapse, Zeno and anti-Zeno effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rufeil-Fiori, E.; Pastawski, H.M.

    2009-01-01

    The decay dynamics of a local excitation interacting with a non-Markovian environment, modeled by a semi-infinite tight-binding chain, is exactly evaluated. We identify distinctive regimes for the dynamics. Sequentially: (i) early quadratic decay of the initial-state survival probability, up to a spreading time t S , (ii) exponential decay described by a self-consistent Fermi Golden Rule, and (iii) asymptotic behavior governed by quantum diffusion through the return processes, leading to an inverse power law decay. At this last cross-over time t R a survival collapse becomes possible. This could reduce the survival probability by several orders of magnitude. The cross-over times t S and t R allow to assess the range of applicability of the Fermi Golden Rule and give the conditions for the observation of the Zeno and anti-Zeno effect.

  8. Parental care improves offspring survival and growth in burying beetles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert; Reinking; MULLER

    1998-01-01

    Burying beetles (genus Nicrophorus) provide elaborate parental care to their offspring. Parental beetles defend a small vertebrate carcass, which constitutes the sole food source for the larvae. They also manipulate the carcass in various ways and directly regurgitate pre-digested carrion to the young. The benefits of carcass manipulation and regurgitation have been the subject of a few small-scale studies that have yielded conflicting results. In this study, we investigated the benefits of these behaviours and tested for possible beneficial effects on larval survival rates and final body mass in N. vespilloides. In this species: (1) larval survival and mass were significantly higher in broods receiving parental care throughout larval development on the carcass than in broods developing in the absence of adults; (2) parental presence immediately subsequent to larval hatching greatly improved larval survival rates; (3) continued parental presence for several days further improved larval growth, leading to a greater final mass of individual larvae; (4) larval survival and growth were improved by parental preparation of carcasses and by an excision made in the integument of the carcass surface by the parents that allows the larvae ready access to their food; (5) positive effects of parental feeding on larval survival and growth were not mediated by the transfer of symbionts. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  9. Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

    2017-05-01

    Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

  10. Food web changes under ocean acidification promote herring larvae survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sswat, Michael; Stiasny, Martina H; Taucher, Jan; Algueró-Muñiz, Maria; Bach, Lennart T; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Riebesell, Ulf; Clemmesen, Catriona

    2018-05-01

    Ocean acidification-the decrease in seawater pH due to rising CO 2 concentrations-has been shown to lower survival in early life stages of fish and, as a consequence, the recruitment of populations including commercially important species. To date, ocean-acidification studies with fish larvae have focused on the direct physiological impacts of elevated CO 2 , but largely ignored the potential effects of ocean acidification on food web interactions. In an in situ mesocosm study on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae as top predators in a pelagic food web, we account for indirect CO 2 effects on larval survival mediated by changes in food availability. The community was exposed to projected end-of-the-century CO 2 conditions (~760 µatm pCO 2 ) over a period of 113 days. In contrast with laboratory studies that reported a decrease in fish survival, the survival of the herring larvae in situ was significantly enhanced by 19 ± 2%. Analysis of the plankton community dynamics suggested that the herring larvae benefitted from a CO 2 -stimulated increase in primary production. Such indirect effects may counteract the possible direct negative effects of ocean acidification on the survival of fish early life stages. These findings emphasize the need to assess the food web effects of ocean acidification on fish larvae before we can predict even the sign of change in fish recruitment in a high-CO 2 ocean.

  11. Survival of methanogens during desiccation: implications for life on Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Michael G; Kral, Timothy A

    2006-08-01

    The relatively recent discoveries that liquid water likely existed on the surface of past Mars and that methane currently exists in the martian atmosphere have fueled the possibility of extant or extinct life on Mars. One possible explanation for the existence of the methane would be the presence of methanogens in the subsurface. Methanogens are microorganisms in the domain Archaea that can metabolize molecular hydrogen as an energy source and carbon dioxide as a carbon source and produce methane. One factor of importance is the arid nature of Mars, at least at the surface. If one is to assume that life exists below the surface, then based on the only example of life that we know, liquid water must be present. Realistically, however, that liquid water may be seasonal just as it is at some locations on our home planet. Here we report on research designed to determine how long certain species of methanogens can survive desiccation on a Mars soil simulant, JSC Mars-1. Methanogenic cells were grown on JSC Mars-1, transferred to a desiccator within a Coy anaerobic environmental chamber, and maintained there for varying time periods. Following removal from the desiccator and rehydration, gas chromatographic measurements of methane indicated survival for varying time periods. Methanosarcina barkeri survived desiccation for 10 days, while Methanobacterium formicicum and Methanothermobacter wolfeii were able to survive for 25 days.

  12. Stage at diagnosis and ovarian cancer survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maringe, Camille; Walters, Sarah; Butler, John

    2012-01-01

    We investigate what role stage at diagnosis bears in international differences in ovarian cancer survival.......We investigate what role stage at diagnosis bears in international differences in ovarian cancer survival....

  13. Life-Cycle Models for Survivable Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Linger, Richard

    2002-01-01

    .... Current software development life-cycle models are not focused on creating survivable systems, and exhibit shortcomings when the goal is to develop systems with a high degree of assurance of survivability...

  14. Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Amin, Mitesh; Santee, William R

    2008-01-01

    A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure at sea in both air and water for a wide range of environmental conditions...

  15. Halophila stipulacea: survival under adverse conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, C. R., Jr.; Primack, A. G.; Wyllie-Echeverria, S.

    2016-02-01

    Halophila stipulacea is an invasive seagrass species originally native to the Indian Ocean. It invaded the Mediterranean Sea shortly after the opening of the Suez Canal, and has recently been found in the Caribbean. It has been suggested that it arrived in the Mediterranean attached to small pleasure craft, fishing craft, or small cargo vessels. This research examines the feasibility of these methods of transport and the possibility that arrived transported by ocean currents. To investigate potential transport vectors, we collected rooted samples of H. stipulacae from Brewers Bay on the island of Saint Thomas, USVI, and exposed them to conditions that would be experienced under each alternative method of transport. The health of the samples was monitored using a FLOURPEN FP 100 portable fluorometer. Rhizomes, and associated leaf pairs declined rapidly when exposed to air, submersed in freshwater, or kept damp in a towel soaked in seawater, but survived for more than 5 weeks when left floating in a bucket submersed in a seawater tank. Water temperature ranged between 27C and 30C during the experiment. This suggests that it might be possible for H. stipulacae to cross the Atlantic aided by currents.

  16. IPO survival in a reputational market

    OpenAIRE

    Espenlaub, Susanne; Khurshed, Arif; Mohamed, Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    We examine IPO survival in a 'reputational' market, the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), where principle-based regulation pivots on the role of a regulatory agent, the nominated advisor (Nomad) to the IPO company. We find that Nomad reputation has a significant impact on IPO survival. IPOs backed by reputable Nomads 'survive longer (by about two years) than those backed by other Nomads. We also find that survival rates of AIM IPOs are broadly comparable to those of North American IPOs. Wh...

  17. Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Bates

    1997-01-01

    This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms and establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite ...

  18. Starvation-Survival in Haloarchaea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winters, Yaicha D; Lowenstein, Tim K; Timofeeff, Michael N

    2015-11-12

    Recent studies claiming to revive ancient microorganisms trapped in fluid inclusions in halite have warranted an investigation of long-term microbial persistence. While starvation-survival is widely reported for bacteria, it is less well known for halophilic archaea-microorganisms likely to be trapped in ancient salt crystals. To better understand microbial survival in fluid inclusions in ancient evaporites, laboratory experiments were designed to simulate growth of halophilic archaea under media-rich conditions, complete nutrient deprivation, and a controlled substrate condition (glycerol-rich) and record their responses. Haloarchaea used for this work included Hbt. salinarum and isolate DV582A-1 (genus Haloterrigena) sub-cultured from 34 kyear Death Valley salt. Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1 reacted to nutrient limitation with morphological and population changes. Starved populations increased and most cells converted from rods to small cocci within 56 days of nutrient deprivation. The exact timing of starvation adaptations and the physical transformations differed between species, populations of the same species, and cells of the same population. This is the first study to report the timing of starvation strategies for Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1. The morphological states in these experiments may allow differentiation between cells trapped with adequate nutrients (represented here by early stages in nutrient-rich media) from cells trapped without nutrients (represented here by experimental starvation) in ancient salt. The hypothesis that glycerol, leaked from Dunaliella, provides nutrients for the survival of haloarchaea trapped in fluid inclusions in ancient halite, is also tested. Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1 were exposed to a mixture of lysed and intact Dunaliella for 56 days. The ability of these organisms to utilize glycerol from Dunaliella cells was assessed by documenting population growth, cell length, and cell morphology. Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1

  19. Ghrelin as a Survival Hormone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Bharath K; Zigman, Jeffrey M

    2017-12-01

    Ghrelin administration induces food intake and body weight gain. Based on these actions, the ghrelin system was initially proposed as an antiobesity target. Subsequent studies using genetic mouse models have raised doubts about the role of the endogenous ghrelin system in mediating body weight homeostasis or obesity. However, this is not to say that the endogenous ghrelin system is not important metabolically or otherwise. Here we review an emerging concept in which the endogenous ghrelin system serves an essential function during extreme nutritional and psychological challenges to defend blood glucose, protect body weight, avoid exaggerated depression, and ultimately allow survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Starvation-Survival in Haloarchaea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaicha D. Winters

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies claiming to revive ancient microorganisms trapped in fluid inclusions in halite have warranted an investigation of long-term microbial persistence. While starvation-survival is widely reported for bacteria, it is less well known for halophilic archaea—microorganisms likely to be trapped in ancient salt crystals. To better understand microbial survival in fluid inclusions in ancient evaporites, laboratory experiments were designed to simulate growth of halophilic archaea under media-rich conditions, complete nutrient deprivation, and a controlled substrate condition (glycerol-rich and record their responses. Haloarchaea used for this work included Hbt. salinarum and isolate DV582A-1 (genus Haloterrigena sub-cultured from 34 kyear Death Valley salt. Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1 reacted to nutrient limitation with morphological and population changes. Starved populations increased and most cells converted from rods to small cocci within 56 days of nutrient deprivation. The exact timing of starvation adaptations and the physical transformations differed between species, populations of the same species, and cells of the same population. This is the first study to report the timing of starvation strategies for Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1. The morphological states in these experiments may allow differentiation between cells trapped with adequate nutrients (represented here by early stages in nutrient-rich media from cells trapped without nutrients (represented here by experimental starvation in ancient salt. The hypothesis that glycerol, leaked from Dunaliella, provides nutrients for the survival of haloarchaea trapped in fluid inclusions in ancient halite, is also tested. Hbt. salinarum and DV582A-1 were exposed to a mixture of lysed and intact Dunaliella for 56 days. The ability of these organisms to utilize glycerol from Dunaliella cells was assessed by documenting population growth, cell length, and cell morphology. Hbt. salinarum

  1. Survival of adult martens in Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas P. McCann; Patrick A. Zollner; Jonathan H. Gilbert

    2010-01-01

    Low adult marten (Martes americana) survival may be one factor limiting their population growth >30 yr after their reintroduction in Wisconsin, USA. We estimated annual adult marten survival at 0.81 in northern Wisconsin, with lower survival during winter (0.87) than summer-fall (1.00). Fisher (Martes pennanti) and raptor kills...

  2. 46 CFR 199.201 - Survival craft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Survival craft. 199.201 Section 199.201 Shipping COAST... craft. (a) Each survival craft must be approved and equipped as follows: (1) Each lifeboat must be... addition to the survival craft required in paragraph (b)(1) of this section, additional liferafts must be...

  3. 46 CFR 199.261 - Survival craft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Survival craft. 199.261 Section 199.261 Shipping COAST... SYSTEMS FOR CERTAIN INSPECTED VESSELS Additional Requirements for Cargo Vessels § 199.261 Survival craft. (a) Each survival craft must be approved and equipped as follows: (1) Each lifeboat must be a totally...

  4. 46 CFR 28.120 - Survival craft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Survival craft. 28.120 Section 28.120 Shipping COAST... VESSELS Requirements for All Vessels § 28.120 Survival craft. (a) Except as provided in paragraphs (b) through (h) of this section and 28.305, each vessel must carry the survival craft specified in Table 28...

  5. 46 CFR 133.105 - Survival craft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Survival craft. 133.105 Section 133.105 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS LIFESAVING SYSTEMS Requirements for All OSVs § 133.105 Survival craft. (a) Each survival craft must be approved and equipped as...

  6. Survival and transmission of symmetrical chromosomal aberrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savage, J.R.K.

    1979-01-01

    The interaction between the lesions to produce chromosomal structural changes may be either asymmetrical (A) or symmetrical (S). In A, one or more acentric fragments are always produced, and there may also be the mechanical separation problems resulting from bridges at anaphase, while S-changes never produce fragment, and pose no mechanical problem in cell division. If A and S events occur with equal frequency, it might be an indication that they are truly the alternative modes of lesion interaction. Unstimulated lymphocytes were irradiated with 2.68 Gy 250 kV X-ray, and metaphases were sampled at 50 h after the stimulation. Preparations were complete diploid cells, and any obvious second division cells were rejected. So far as dermal repair and fibroblast functions are concerned, aberration burden seems to have little consequence from the view-point of the long-term survival in vivo. Large numbers of aberrations (mainly S translocation and terminal deletion) were found in the samples taken up to 60 years after therapy. Skin biopsies were removed 1 day and 6 months after irradiation and cultured. In irradiated cells, reciprocal translocations dominated, followed by terminal deletions, then inversions, while no chromosome-type aberration was seen in the control cells. a) The relative occurrence of A : S changes, b) long-term survival in vivo, c) the possibility of in vivo repair, and d) some unusual features of translocation found in Syrian hamsters are reviewed. The relevance or importance of major S events is clearly dependent upon the cells, the tissues or the organisms in which they occur. (Yamashita, S.)

  7. Direct Survival Analysis: a new stock assessment method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a new stock assessment method, Direct Survival Analysis, is proposed and described. The parameter estimation of the Weibull survival model proposed by Ferrandis (2007 is obtained using trawl survey data. This estimation is used to establish a baseline survival function, which is in turn used to estimate the specific survival functions in the different cohorts considered through an adaptation of the separable model of the fishing mortality rates introduced by Pope and Shepherd (1982. It is thus possible to test hypotheses on the evolution of survival during the period studied and to identify trends in recruitment. A link is established between the preceding analysis of trawl survey data and the commercial catch-at-age data that are generally obtained to evaluate the population using analytical models. The estimated baseline survival, with the proposed versions of the stock and catch equations and the adaptation of the Separable Model, may be applied to commercial catch-at-age data. This makes it possible to estimate the survival corresponding to the landing data, the initial size of the cohort and finally, an effective age of first capture, in order to complete the parameter model estimation and consequently the estimation of the whole survival and mortality, along with the reference parameters that are useful for management purposes. Alternatively, this estimation of an effective age of first capture may be obtained by adapting the demographic structure of trawl survey data to that of the commercial fleet through suitable selectivity models of the commercial gears. The complete model provides the evaluation of the stock at any age. The coherence (and hence the mutual “calibration” between the two kinds of information may be analysed and compared with results obtained by other methods, such as virtual population analysis (VPA, in order to improve the diagnosis of the state of exploitation of the population. The model may be

  8. An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

    2005-06-01

    Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

  9. Improving fish survival through turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Much of what is known about fish passage through hydroturbines has been developed by studying migratory species of fish passing through large Kaplan turbine units. A review of the literature on previous fish passage research presented in the accompanying story illustrates that studies have focused on determining mortality levels, rather than identifying the causal mechanism involved. There is a need for understanding how turbine designs could be altered to improve fish passage conditions, how to retrofit existing units, and how proposed hydro plant operational changes may affect fish survival. The US Army Corps of Engineers has developed a research program to define biologically based engineering criteria for improving fish passage conditions. Turbine designs incorporating these criteria can be evaluated for their effects on fish survival, engineering issues, costs, and power production. The research program has the following objectives: To gain a thorough knowledge of the mechanisms of fish mortality; To define the biological sensitivities of key fish species to these mechanisms of mortality; To develop new turbine design criteria to reduce fish mortality; To construct prototype turbine designs, and to test these designs for fish passage, hydro-mechanical operation, and power production; and To identify construction and power costs associated with new turbine designs

  10. Survival strategies in arctic ungulates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. C. Tyler

    1990-09-01

    Full Text Available Arctic ungulates usually neither freeze nor starve to death despite the rigours of winter. Physiological adaptations enable them to survive and reproduce despite long periods of intense cold and potential undernutrition. Heat conservation is achieved by excellent insulation combined with nasal heat exchange. Seasonal variation in fasting metabolic rate has been reported in several temperate and sub-arctic species of ungulates and seems to occur in muskoxen. Surprisingly, there is no evidence for this in reindeer. Both reindeer and caribou normally maintain low levels of locomotor activity in winter. Light foot loads are important for reducing energy expenditure while walking over snow. The significance and control of selective cooling of the brain during hard exercise (e.g. escape from predators is discussed. Like other cervids, reindeer and caribou display a pronounced seasonal cycle of appetite and growth which seems to have an intrinsic basis. This has two consequences. First, the animals evidently survive perfectly well despite enduring negative energy balance for long periods. Second, loss of weight in winter is not necessarily evidence of undernutrition. The main role of fat reserves, especially in males, may be to enhance reproductive success. The principal role of fat reserves in winter appears to be to provide a supplement to, rather than a substitute for, poor quality winter forage. Fat also provides an insurance against death during periods of acute starvation.

  11. Current puzzles and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagamiya, S.

    1982-02-01

    Four current puzzles and several future experimental possibilities in high-energy nuclear collision research are discussed. These puzzles are (1) entropy, (2) hydrodynamic flow, (3) anomalon, and (4) particle emission at backward angles in proton-nucleus collisions. The last one seems not to be directly related to the subject of the present school. But it is, because particle emission into the region far beyond the nucleon-nucleon kinematical limit is an interesting subject common for both proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions, and the basic mechanism involved is strongly related in these two cases. Future experimental possibilities are described which include: (1) possibilities of studying multibaryonic excited states, (2) applications of neutron-rich isotopes, and (3) other needed experimental tasks. 72 references

  12. Triphenylmethane, a possible moderator material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hügle, Th.; Mocko, M.; Hartl, M.A.; Daemen, L.L.; Muhrer, G.

    2014-01-01

    New challenges in neutron scattering result in an increased demand in novel moderator concepts. The most direct way to address the problem would be to change the moderator material itself. However the range of available neutron moderator materials is small. In this paper, we discuss triphenylmethane, a possible moderator material especially promising for cold neutron moderator applications. Our investigations include a parallel experimental and theoretical approach ranging from cross-section measurements and inelastic neutron spectroscopy to molecular modeling. -- Highlights: • Triphenylmethane as a potential moderator material is discussed. • Parallel theoretical and experimental approach. • Possibly very useful for cold neutrons

  13. Neutrino geophysics - a future possibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Dezsoe

    1988-01-01

    The history and basic properties of the neutrinos are reviewed. A new idea: neutrino tomography of the Earth interior is discussed in detail. The main contradiction: the high pervasivity of neutrinos, which makes possible the transillumination of the Earth, and the gigantic technical problems of detection caused by the small cross section is pointed out. The proposed possibilities of detection (radiowaves, sound, muons and Cherenkov light emitted by neutrinos) are described. Proposed futuristic technical ideas (mobile muon detectors aboard trucks, floating proton accelerators of 100 km circumference, moving in the ocean) and supposed geological aims (Earth's core, internal density anomalies, quarries of minerals and crude oil) are discussed. (D.Gy.) 5 figs

  14. Review on possible gravitational anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amador, Xavier E

    2005-01-01

    This is an updated introductory review of 2 possible gravitational anomalies that has attracted part of the Scientific community: the Allais effect that occur during solar eclipses, and the Pioneer 10 spacecraft anomaly, experimented also by Pioneer 11 and Ulysses spacecrafts. It seems that, to date, no satisfactory conventional explanation exist to these phenomena, and this suggests that possible new physics will be needed to account for them. The main purpose of this review is to announce 3 other new measurements that will be carried on during the 2005 solar eclipses in Panama and Colombia (Apr. 8) and in Portugal (Oct.15)

  15. Surviving Scientific Academia . . . and Beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conlin, Jeremy Lloyd [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-02-03

    It's been 16 years since I first took a physics class at Weber State University. Since them, I've survived graduate school in Nuclear Engineering, and a postdoc appointment doing nuclear nonproliferation. Now I'm a Technical Staff Member at Los Alamos National Laboratory working with nuclear data, the physics behind the numerical simulations of nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons. Along the way, I've learned a few things. First, scientific computing is everywhere in science. If you are not writing codes, you will be analyzing their output, and generally there will be more output than a human can correctly and accurately interpret in a timely manner. Second, a career in science or engineering can be very rewarding with opportunities to collaborate with and generate friendships with very bright people from all over the world.

  16. Additive interaction in survival analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Lange, Theis; Andersen, Ingelise

    2012-01-01

    It is a widely held belief in public health and clinical decision-making that interventions or preventive strategies should be aimed at patients or population subgroups where most cases could potentially be prevented. To identify such subgroups, deviation from additivity of absolute effects...... an empirical example of interaction between education and smoking on risk of lung cancer. We argue that deviations from additivity of effects are important for public health interventions and clinical decision-making, and such estimations should be encouraged in prospective studies on health. A detailed...... is the relevant measure of interest. Multiplicative survival models, such as the Cox proportional hazards model, are often used to estimate the association between exposure and risk of disease in prospective studies. In Cox models, deviations from additivity have usually been assessed by surrogate measures...

  17. Survivable pulse power space radiator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, James; Buden, David; Williams, Kenneth

    1989-01-01

    A thermal radiator system is described for use on an outer space vehicle, which must survive a long period of nonuse and then radiate large amounts of heat for a limited period of time. The radiator includes groups of radiator panels that are pivotally connected in tandem, so that they can be moved to deployed configuration wherein the panels lie largely coplanar, and to a stowed configuration wherein the panels lie in a stack to resist micrometeorite damage. The panels are mounted on a boom which separates a hot power source from a payload. While the panels are stowed, warm fluid passes through their arteries to keep them warm enough to maintain the coolant in a liquid state and avoid embrittlement of material. The panels can be stored in a largely cylindrical shell, with panels progressively further from the boom being of progressively shorter length.

  18. Fingertip replantation: determinants of survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Guo, Zheng; Zhu, Qingsheng; Lei, Wei; Han, Yisheng; Li, Mingquan; Wang, Zhen

    2008-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors for an unsuccessful replanted fingertip. Two hundred eleven complete fingertip amputations in 211 patients who underwent replantation surgery between August of 1990 and March of 2006 were included in this study. The patients' age, gender, smoking history, digit position, dominant hand, amputation level, injury mechanism, platelet count, ischemia time, preservation method of the amputated part, anesthesia, number of arteries repaired, venous drainage, use of vein grafting, neurorrhaphy, bone shortening, and smoking after operation were tested for their impact on fingertip survival. One hundred seventy-two of 211 patients (81.5 percent) had a successful replantation. Univariate analysis showed crush or avulsion injury, high platelet count, and inappropriate preservation of the amputated part in saline solution or ethanol to be associated with a high incidence of replantation failure. Twenty-two of 54 patients (41 percent) who had a crush or avulsion trauma had failed replantation. Logistic regression analysis identified injury mechanism, platelet count, smoking after operation, preservation method of the amputated part, and the use of vein grafting as statistically significant predictive factors for success or failure. Injury mechanism, platelet count, smoking after operation, preservation method of amputated part, and the use of vein grafting were found to be the main predictors for the survival of the replanted fingertip. Applying external bleeding in zone 1 and venous drainage through the medullary cavity in zone 2 or venous anastomosis combined with vein grafting rather than venous anastomosis alone were strongly recommended in the fingertip replantation of crush or avulsion injury.

  19. Possible role of reassortment in tumor therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terashima, Toyozo

    1976-01-01

    On the basis of age-dependent response pattern of cultured mammalian cells, various exogenous agents, such as x-ray, antimetabolites, and antitumor drugs, were classified into two groups, i.e., x-ray type (A) and hydroxyurea type (B). Each type of agent was specific not only for the pattern of survival response during the cell cycle but also for the inhibition of progression. The treatment of cycling cell population with either type of agent results in the reassortment of cells in relation to cell age, thereby providing a chance for successive administrations of either type of agent. Taking advantage of such specific effects of agents on the tumor cell cycle, possible schedules for efficient cell sterilization were suggested: B.X(simultaneous administration) and A-X, X-B(two successive administrations at a scheduled interval) were found promissing. Finally, it was emphasized that much more information must be collected to formulate the cellular response of cycling and non-cycling fractions of the tumor to various exogenous agents. (J.P.N.)

  20. Student Leadership: Challenges and Possibilities*

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. In my attempt to adhere to the request that I provide an interpretation of the theme for the session,. 'Critical Engagement, Innovation and Inclusivity', and cognisant of the primary audience,. I weave student leadership responsibilities, challenges and possibilities into the address. Events since the plenary address ...

  1. Student Leadership: Challenges and Possibilities*

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    I weave student leadership responsibilities, challenges and possibilities into the ... The conundrum of fee-free higher education is not an abstract concept floating ... You can choose to engage with the issue by expressing yourself in many ways. .... Africa today, such as Recognition of Prior Learning (SAQA, 2004), we very ...

  2. Machiavelli’s Possibility Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Holler, Manfred J.; Marciano, Alain

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the thesis that in Arrow’s Possibility Theorem the dictator (merely) serves as a solution to the logical problem of aggregating preference while Machiavelli’s dictator, the Prince, has the historical function to bring order into a world of chaos and thus make society ready for the implementation of a republican structure.

  3. Possible nonvanishing mass of photon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakazato, Hiromichi; Namiki, Mikio; Yamanaka, Yoshiya; Yokoyama, Kan-ichi.

    1985-05-01

    From phenomenological and field-theoretical considerations on photon mass, we first show that photon is not limitted to being massless at the present stage. Next we illustrate a possibility of formulating a local field theory for massive photons coupled with nonconserved currents, while we cannot do for massless photons. (author)

  4. Student Leadership: Challenges and Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nel, Willy

    2016-01-01

    In my attempt to adhere to the request that I provide an interpretation of the theme for the session, "Critical Engagement, Innovation and Inclusivity", and cognisant of the primary audience, I weave student leadership responsibilities, challenges and possibilities into the address. Events since the plenary address have however…

  5. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  6. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, PA (United States); and others

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant.

  7. SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V; Palmer, J; Yu, Y; Lu, B; Babinsky, L; Burkhart, R; Leiby, B; Siow, V; Lavu, H; Rosato, E; Winter, J; Lewis, N; Sama, A; Mitchell, E; Anne, P; Hurwitz, M; Yeo, C; Bar-Ad, V

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) were randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant

  8. Does colour polymorphism enhance survival of prey populations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennersten, Lena; Forsman, Anders

    2009-01-01

    That colour polymorphism may protect prey populations from predation is an old but rarely tested hypothesis. We examine whether colour polymorphic populations of prey exposed to avian predators in an ecologically valid visual context were exposed to increased extinction risk compared with monomorphic populations. We made 2976 artificial pastry prey, resembling Lepidoptera larvae, in four different colours and presented them in 124 monomorphic and 124 tetramorphic populations on tree trunks and branches such that they would be exposed to predation by free-living birds, and monitored their ‘survival’. Among monomorphic populations, there was a significant effect of prey coloration on survival, confirming that coloration influenced susceptibility to visually oriented predators. Survival of polymorphic populations was inferior to that of monomorphic green populations, but did not differ significantly from monomorphic brown, yellow or red populations. Differences in survival within polymorphic populations paralleled those seen among monomorphic populations; the red morph most frequently went extinct first and the green morph most frequently survived the longest. Our findings do not support the traditional protective polymorphism hypothesis and are in conflict with those of earlier studies. As a possible explanation to our findings, we offer a competing ‘giveaway cue’ hypothesis: that polymorphic populations may include one morph that attracts the attention of predators and that polymorphic populations therefore may suffer increased predation compared with some monomorphic populations. PMID:19324729

  9. Surviving Armageddon - Solutions for a Threatened Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Bill

    2005-07-01

    What do earthquakes, magma, asteroid 1950DA, and global warming have in common? All are very real natural disasters, already under way; all are also the focus of intensive work by scientists, aimed at preventing, predicting, or at least limiting their impact on civilization. Using the latest chilling data and taking care to draw a clear line between scientific fact and fiction, McGuire discusses the various ways that scientists have already started to prepare for survival. Solutions on earth range from 'space reflectors' to prevent global warming, to pressure-relieving 'robot excavators' to stop volcanic eruptions. In space, NASA is developing rocket motors to gently nudge asteroids out of Earth's path, and plans to have all threatening asteroids larger than 1km detected by 2008, thereby enabling us to predict possible collisions up to 2880. The book provides the strategies to the problems we face, and concludes optimistically with ways in which we can use technology to protect our society and planet from global catastrophe.

  10. North-South cooperation for survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waiyaki, M

    1989-12-01

    Affirming that international cooperation along North-North, North-South, and South-South lines is essential for mutual survival, Mr. Waiyaki calls upon international understanding, good w ill, determination, and compromise in achieving mutually beneficial socioeconomic development for developing nations, while avoiding serious international confrontation and internal civil strife. He cites remaining instances of colonialism and the debate over Africa's debt repayment as potential conflict areas, then provides previously suggested resolving steps involving the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Economic Commission for Africa. Regarding internal strife, he discusses the hardships imposed upon African populations by structural adjustment programs. Should such exacerbatory measures be implemented in the hope of fostering development, negative international ramifications are possible. Specifically, the potential failure of measures to redress regional population and environmental problems should not be discounted. Improved communications and increasing interdependence continue to make the world seem smaller, allowing regional changes to affect the world on a broader scale. Key issues in high population growth, especially in Africa, Latin America, and Oceania, and environmental concerns are explored. The address includes specific mention of determinant factors and suggestions for Northern country interventions in finding solutions to these comprehensive concerns.

  11. Osteopenia in children surviving brain tumours

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitton, A.C.; Eves, M. [Children' s Hospital at Chedoke-McMaster, Room 3N27B, Health Sciences Centre, McMaster University, 1200 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Hay, J. [Brock University, St. Catharines, Ontario (Canada); Gill, G.J.; Webber, C.E. [Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University (Canada); Simpson, T. [Hamilton Regional Cancer Centre, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada); Barr, R.D. [Children' s Hospital at Chedoke-McMaster, Room 3N27B, Health Sciences Centre, McMaster University, 1200 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-05-01

    Osteopenia has been reported in children surviving acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, apparently as a consequence of therapy. It has been suggested that cranial irradiation may play a crucial role in this disorder. To explore that possibility, survivors of brain tumours in childhood, all of whom had received radiotherapy, were examined for evidence of bone mineral loss. 19 children were assessed, on average at 7 years after treatment. Measurements of growth velocities, plain radiography of the skeleton, bone densitometry, health-related quality of life and physical activity were undertaken. Growth hormone (GH) deficiency had been detected in 6 children and 5 had received GH replacement, for a minimum of more than 3 years. 9 children were radiographically osteopenic (including the 5 who had received GH). Z scores for bone mineral density (BMD) were negative in the majority of children. Health-related quality of life was less and pain more frequent in those with low BMD scores. Pain was correlated negatively with both free-time activity and seasonal activity (P<0.01). Osteopenia is a common sequel of therapy in children with brain tumours. Those with osteopenia have more pain and more compromised, health-related quality of life than those who are not osteopenic, and pain significantly limits physical activity. The pathogenesis of osteopenia in these children is still uncertain, but is likely to be multifactorial. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  12. Elite athletes: is survival shortened in boxers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, M; Fabbricatore, C; Sanna, N; Fabiano, C; Palmieri, V; Zeppilli, P

    2007-08-01

    Moderate exercise and intense physical training are associated with increased life expectancy (LE). Boxing is characterized by intentional and repetitive head blows, sometimes causing brain injury, possibly reducing LE. We examined a sample of male athletes born between 1860 and 1930 selected from the international "hall of fame" inductees in baseball (n = 154), ice hockey (n = 130), tennis (n = 83), football (n = 81), boxing (n = 81), track and field (n = 59), basketball (n = 58), swimming (n = 37) and wrestling (n = 32). In boxing, we analyzed the number of disputed bouts/rounds and career records. Sports were also analyzed according to physiological demand and occurrence and kind of contact (intentional, unintentional). The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to compare survival curves (significance: p LE of the samples was 76.0 yrs and no differences were observed in different sports, although it was lower in boxers (73.0 yrs) and higher in tennis players (79.0 yrs). Sports of different physiological demand were similar in respect to LE. No differences in LE were found related to occurrence and kind of impact. Similar LE was found in boxers of different weight or career records. In conclusion, this study indicates that LE in top-level athletes is unaffected by the type of discipline, and not related to physiological demand and intentional contact.

  13. Ground properties derived from censored data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denver, H.; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Tarp-Johansen, Niels Jacob

    1997-01-01

    The geotechnical engineer is often faced with the problem of how to assess the statistical properties of a soil parameter on the basis of a sample measured in-situ or in the laboratory with the defect that some values have been replaced by interval bounds because the corresponding soil parameter ...

  14. Literary Magazines: To Censor or Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossman, Robert C.

    2007-01-01

    High school teacher Robert C. Mossman asserts that literary magazines reflect and elevate school communities' values. As adviser of his school literary magazine, Mossman encourages students to uphold certain standards for decency, while helping students learn to distinguish between original writing that is specific and thoughtful and writing that…

  15. Return of the quantum cosmic censor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hod, Shahar [Ruppin Academic Center, Emeq Hefer 40250 (Israel); Hadassah Institute, Jerusalem 91010 (Israel)], E-mail: shaharhod@gmail.com

    2008-10-16

    The influential theorems of Hawking and Penrose demonstrate that spacetime singularities are ubiquitous features of general relativity, Einstein's theory of gravity. The utility of classical general relativity in describing gravitational phenomena is maintained by the cosmic censorship principle. This conjecture, whose validity is still one of the most important open questions in general relativity, asserts that the undesirable spacetime singularities are always hidden inside of black holes. In this Letter we reanalyze extreme situations which have been considered as counterexamples to the cosmic censorship hypothesis. In particular, we consider the absorption of fermion particles by a spinning black hole. Ignoring quantum effects may lead one to conclude that an incident fermion wave may over spin the black hole, thereby exposing its inner singularity to distant observers. However, we show that when quantum effects are properly taken into account, the integrity of the black-hole event horizon is irrefutable. This observation suggests that the cosmic censorship principle is intrinsically a quantum phenomena.

  16. Return of the quantum cosmic censor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hod, Shahar

    2008-01-01

    The influential theorems of Hawking and Penrose demonstrate that spacetime singularities are ubiquitous features of general relativity, Einstein's theory of gravity. The utility of classical general relativity in describing gravitational phenomena is maintained by the cosmic censorship principle. This conjecture, whose validity is still one of the most important open questions in general relativity, asserts that the undesirable spacetime singularities are always hidden inside of black holes. In this Letter we reanalyze extreme situations which have been considered as counterexamples to the cosmic censorship hypothesis. In particular, we consider the absorption of fermion particles by a spinning black hole. Ignoring quantum effects may lead one to conclude that an incident fermion wave may over spin the black hole, thereby exposing its inner singularity to distant observers. However, we show that when quantum effects are properly taken into account, the integrity of the black-hole event horizon is irrefutable. This observation suggests that the cosmic censorship principle is intrinsically a quantum phenomena

  17. Censoring the Imagination: Challenges to Children's Books.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltman, Judith

    1998-01-01

    Presents a brief history of the censorship of children's books, and then focuses on recent challenges. The view of literature as a socializing force is discussed, and examples of challenged books in the United States and Canada are provided, illustrating different reasons for censorship on both sides of the political and social spectrum. (AEF)

  18. Censoring the Mails: What Is Your Opinion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Mary, Ed.; Childress, Marilyn, Ed.

    1982-01-01

    Contains a primary source document--a letter written in 1916 protesting U.S. Postal Service censorship of an anarchist publication--and suggests ways to use the document in secondary U.S. history classes. Samples of student surveys on mail censorship and a document analysis worksheet are included. (AM)

  19. Possible State Approaches to Cryptocurrencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lansky

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cryptocurrencies are a type of digital currencies that are relying on cryptographic proofs for confirmation of transactions. Cryptocurrencies usually achieve a unique combination of three features: ensuring limited anonymity, independence from central authority and double spending attack protection. No other group of currencies, including fiat currencies, has this combination of features. We will define cryptocurrency ownership and account anonymity. We will define cryptocurrency ownership and account anonymity. We will introduce a classification of the types of approaches to regulation of cryptocurrencies by various individual countries. We will present the risks that the use of cryptocurrencies involves and the possibilities of prevention of those risks. We will present the possible use of cryptocurrencies for the benefit of the state. The conclusion addresses the implications of adoption of a cryptocurrency as a national currency.

  20. MOBILE LEARING - possibilities and perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lasse Juel

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes that SMS (Short Message Service) or text-messaging on mobile devices can serve as an extension or possible create another way of learning traditional scholastic content normally associated with the school system. The potential of the SMS is still very much untapped and largely...... unexplored as a pedagogical tool within teaching and learning domains. This paper is inspired by locative arts and ongoing experiments regarding not only SMS based pervasive systems, but also the more complex usage of mobile devices in investigating urban living conditions and experiences both existentially...... and as an exploring mechanism of the cityscape. This paper aims at discussing the potentials and outlining the possibilities for mobile learning in the traditional school setting. The complexity of these issues derives not only from the traditions of the school system, but also from diverging perspectives...

  1. Another possible energy landscape; Un autre paysage energetique possible

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-06-01

    This analysis presents the national energy balances from the national energy accounting. The first part presents the accounting analysis on the electric power consumption and production in France. The second part deals with the global energy accounting, for the energy sources and utilization, together. From these analysis the authors show how the global energy efficiency of production and utilization is possible. Solutions allowing the reduction of the non renewable energies consumption and solution for the nuclear power phaseout are also proposed. (A.L.B.)

  2. Freedom: A Promise of Possibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2015-10-01

    The idea of freedom as a promise of possibility is explored in this column. The core concepts from a research study on considering tomorrow (Bunkers, 1998) coupled with humanbecoming community change processes (Parse, 2003) are used to illuminate this notion. The importance of intentionality in human freedom is discussed from both a human science and a natural science perspective. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Bioplastics: Development, Possibilities and Difficulties

    OpenAIRE

    Karpušenkaitė, Aistė; Varžinskas, Visvaldas

    2014-01-01

    New possible ways of plastics manufacture and waste treatment are being searched when trying to tackle the problems related to the growth of waste quantities and decline in non-renewable resources. Presently, the most promising and effective way to solve the mentioned problems is production of bioplastics, but its way to recognition is very slow. One of the barriers is the absence of clear and united opinion throughout the EU Arising new discussions about biodegradable and biobased plastics w...

  4. new possibilities in diagnostic radiology

    OpenAIRE

    Scheel, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) allows a non-invasive diffusion-based tissue characterization and thus offers completely new possibilities in the field of diagnostic radiology. On the one hand, this method allows an improved detection of pathological changes at the microstructural level, which are frequently not detectable in conventional MRI methods. On the other hand new strategies for therapy monitoring are feasible by quantification of diffusion parameters (e.g., Parallel, Radial and Mean ...

  5. Steel refining possibilities in LF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitru, M. G.; Ioana, A.; Constantin, N.; Ciobanu, F.; Pollifroni, M.

    2018-01-01

    This article presents the main possibilities for steel refining in Ladle Furnace (LF). These, are presented: steelmaking stages, steel refining through argon bottom stirring, online control of the bottom stirring, bottom stirring diagram during LF treatment of a heat, porous plug influence over the argon stirring, bottom stirring porous plug, analysis of porous plugs disposal on ladle bottom surface, bottom stirring simulation with ANSYS, bottom stirring simulation with Autodesk CFD.

  6. The Possibilities of Network Sociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willson, Michele

    Technologically networked social forms are broad, extensive and in demand. The rapid development and growth of web 2.0, or the social web, is evidence of the need and indeed hunger for social connectivity: people are searching for many and varied ways of enacting being-together. However, the ways in which we think of, research and write about network(ed) sociality are relatively recent and arguably restricted, warranting further critique and development. This article attempts to do several things: it raises questions about the types of sociality enacted in contemporary techno-society; critically explores the notion of the networked individual and the focus on the individual evident in much of the technology and sociality literature and asks questions about the place of the social in these discussions. It argues for a more well-balanced and multilevelled approach to questions of sociality in networked societies. The article starts from the position that possibilities enabled/afforded by the technologies we have in place have an effect upon the ways in which we understand being in the world together and our possible actions and futures. These possibilities are more than simply supplementary; in many ways they are transformative. The ways in which we grapple with these questions reveals as much about our understandings of sociality as it does about the technologies themselves.

  7. Survival Bias When Assessing Risk Factors for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Tutorial with Application to the Exposure of Smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuinness, Myra B; Karahalios, Amalia; Kasza, Jessica; Guymer, Robyn H; Finger, Robert P; Simpson, Julie A

    2017-08-01

    We illustrate the effect of survival bias when investigating risk factors for eye disease in elderly populations for whom death is a competing risk. Our investigation focuses on the relationship between smoking and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in an observational study impacted by censoring due to death. Statistical methodology to calculate the survivor average causal effect (SACE) as a sensitivity analysis is described, including example statistical computing code for Stata and R. To demonstrate this method, we examine the causal effect of smoking history at baseline (1990-1994) on the presence of late AMD at the third study wave (2003-2007) using data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Of the 40,506 participants eligible for inclusion, 38,092 (94%) survived until the start of the third study wave, 20,752 (51%) were graded for AMD (60% female, aged 47-85 years, mean 65 ± 8.7 years). Late AMD was detected in 122 participants. Logistic regression showed strong evidence of an increased risk of late AMD for current smokers compared to non-smokers (adjusted naïve odds ratio 2.99, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.74-5.13). Among participants expected to be alive at the start of follow-up regardless of their smoking status, the estimated SACE odds ratio comparing current smokers to non-smokers was at least 3.42 (95% CI 1.57-5.15). Survival bias can attenuate associations between harmful exposures and diseases of aging. Estimation of the SACE using a sensitivity analysis approach should be considered when conducting epidemiological research within elderly populations.

  8. Survival after stereotactic biopsy of malignant gliomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffey, R.J.; Lunsford, L.D.; Taylor, F.H.

    1988-01-01

    For many patients with malignant gliomas in inaccessible or functionally important locations, stereotactic biopsy followed by radiation therapy (RT) may be a more appropriate initial treatment than craniotomy and tumor resection. We studied the long term survival in 91 consecutive patients with malignant gliomas diagnosed by stereotactic biopsy: 64 had glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and 27 had anaplastic astrocytoma (AA). Sixty-four per cent of the GBMs and 33% of the AAs involved deep or midline cerebral structures. The treatment prescribed after biopsy, the tumor location, the histological findings, and the patient's age at presentation (for AAs) were statistically important factors determining patient survival. If adequate RT (tumor dose of 5000 to 6000 cGy) was not prescribed, the median survival was less than or equal to 11 weeks regardless of tumor histology or location. The median survival for patients with deep or midline tumors who completed RT was similar in AA (19.4 weeks) and GBM (27 weeks) cases. Histology was an important predictor of survival only for patients with adequately treated lobar tumors. The median survival in lobar GBM patients who completed RT was 46.9 weeks, and that in lobar AA patients who completed RT was 129 weeks. Cytoreductive surgery had no statistically significant effect on survival. Among the clinical factors examined, age of less than 40 years at presentation was associated with prolonged survival only in AA patients. Constellations of clinical features, tumor location, histological diagnosis, and treatment prescribed were related to survival time

  9. Clustered survival data with left-truncation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2015-01-01

    Left-truncation occurs frequently in survival studies, and it is well known how to deal with this for univariate survival times. However, there are few results on how to estimate dependence parameters and regression effects in semiparametric models for clustered survival data with delayed entry....... Surprisingly, existing methods only deal with special cases. In this paper, we clarify different kinds of left-truncation and suggest estimators for semiparametric survival models under specific truncation schemes. The large-sample properties of the estimators are established. Small-sample properties...

  10. Surviving severe traumatic brain injury in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Lene; Poulsen, Ingrid; Kammersgaard, Lars Peter

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To identify all hospitalized patients surviving severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Denmark and to compare these patients to TBI patients admitted to highly specialized rehabilitation (HS-rehabilitation). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients surviving severe TBI were identified from...... severe TBI were admitted to HS-rehabilitation. Female sex, older age, and non-working status pre-injury were independent predictors of no HS-rehabilitation among patients surviving severe TBI. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of hospitalized patients surviving severe TBI was stable in Denmark...

  11. Coming of age on the streets: survival sex among homeless young women in Hollywood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warf, Curren W; Clark, Leslie F; Desai, Mona; Rabinovitz, Susan J; Agahi, Golnaz; Calvo, Richard; Hoffmann, Jenny

    2013-12-01

    This study examined childhood physical or sexual abuse, involvement in dependency or delinquency systems, psychiatric hospitalization, and suicide as possible risk factors for survival sex among homeless young women. Homeless young women were found to have similarly high rates of childhood sexual abuse, dependency and delinquency systems involvement, and psychiatric hospitalization. Homeless young women involved in survival sex disclosed higher rates of attempted suicide and reported marginally higher rates of childhood physical abuse. Analysis of qualitative data showed that those engaged in survival sex were motivated primarily by desperation to meet basic needs including a place to stay, food and money, and one third mentioned that peers commonly were influential in decisions to engage in survival sex. Others were influenced by coercion (10%) or pursuit of drugs (10%). Young women engaged in survival sex generally experienced regret and shame about their experience. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Optimal fractionation for the radiotherapy of tumour cells possessing wide-shouldered survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheldon, T.E.

    1979-01-01

    A recent publication (Zeitz, L., and McDonald, J.M., 1978, Br. J. Radiol., vol. 51, 637) has considered the use of in vitro survival curves in the evaluation of different treatment schedules. Several studies of oxygenated melanoma cell have demonstrated a wider than average shoulder width for the survival curves. It is possible that hypoxia reduces the width of this shoulder. Theoretical cell survival probabilities were calculated for each of the four treatment schedules considered by Zeitz and McDonald. The calculations were based on hypothetical survival curves for anoxic melanoma cells with the shoulder either fully retained or completely abolished. No allowance was made for either re-population or re-oxygenation. The advantage of small doses per fraction was demonstrated for both types of survival curve. Re-oxygenation during therapy could therefore mean that a non-uniform treatment schedule is the appropriate choice for this type of tumour. (U.K.)

  13. The Survival Processing Effect with Intentional Learning of Ad Hoc Categories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Savchenko

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that memory is adapted to remember information when it is processed in a survival context. This study investigates how procedural changes in Marinho (2012 study might have led to her failure to replicate the survival mnemonic advantage. In two between-subjects design experiments, participants were instructed to learn words from ad hoc categories and to rate their relevance to a survival or a control scenario. No survival advantage was obtained in either experiment. The Adjusted Ratio of Clustering (ARC scores revealed that including the category labels made the participants rely more on the category structure of the list. Various procedural aspects of the conducted experiments are discussed as possible reasons underlying the absence of the survival effect.

  14. Improving Survival in Decompensated Cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amar Nath Mukerji

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mortality in cirrhosis is consequent of decompensation, only treatment being timely liver transplantation. Organ allocation is prioritized for the sickest patients based on Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD score. In order to improve survival in patients with high MELD score it is imperative to preserve them in suitable condition till transplantation. Here we examine means to prolong life in high MELD score patients till a suitable liver is available. We specially emphasize protection of airways by avoidance of sedatives, avoidance of Bilevel Positive Airway Pressure, elective intubation in grade III or higher encephalopathy, maintaining a low threshold for intubation with lesser grades of encephalopathy when undergoing upper endoscopy or colonoscopy as pre transplant evaluation or transferring patient to a transplant center. Consider post-pyloric tube feeding in encephalopathy to maintain muscle mass and minimize risk of aspiration. In non intubated and well controlled encephalopathy, frequent physical mobility by active and passive exercises are recommended. When renal replacement therapy is needed, night-time Continuous Veno-Venous Hemodialysis may be useful in keeping the daytime free for mobility. Sparing and judicious use of steroids needs to be borne in mind in treatment of ARDS and acute hepatitis from alcohol or autoimmune process.

  15. Survival Strategies: LCTLs in Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn S. Manley

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores an example of successful curriculum de-velopment and methodology for the study of the Quechua language at the university level. This recipe for success falls in line with rec-ommendations made by the MLA Ad Hoc Committee on Foreign Languages, as expressed in their May 2007 report, “Foreign Lan-guages and Higher Education: New Structures for a Changed World”, and may be applied to the case of other LCTLs. This paper argues that, while the MLA’s report was intended for a general audi-ence of foreign language educators, its recommendations are especial-ly vital to the study of the less commonly taught languages. Among the many recommendations included in the report, two in particular stand out as being most essential to the survival of the LCTLs. These are an increase in interdisciplinary courses and inter-departmental alliances as well as a greater integration of cultural study in foreign language teaching.

  16. UV survival of human mycoplasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, Shigeji; Ito, Shoko; Watanabe, Takehiko

    1979-01-01

    The inactivation by ultraviolet (UV) light irradiation of mycoplasma cells of five human strains was monitored by investigating the colony-forming ability. The survival curves of five strains tested indicated that the cells of Mycoplasma buccale only are single and homogenously susceptible to UV light. The effect of the repair inhibitor, caffeine, on the colony-forming ability of UV-irradiated cells was investigated with M. buccale because of its homogeneous susceptibility to UV light. The colony formation of irradiated cells was markedly depressed by post-irradiation treatment with caffeine at concentration that had little or no effect on the colony formation of unirradiated cells. The colony-forming units (CFU) of UV-irradiated cells which were kept in broth without caffeine in the dark increased without a lag as the time in the dark increased. The colony-forming ability of the irradiated cells completely recovered after 3 hr in the dark. However, when irradiated cells were kept in the presence of caffeine, no increase in their CFU was observed. The mode of action of caffeine on UV-irradiated cells closely resembles that described for other organisms which possess dark reactivation systems for UV-induced damage in deoxyribonucleic acid. Thus, the results obtained provide evidence for the existence of a dark repair function in M. buccale. (author)

  17. Pharmacogenomics and migraine: possible implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tfelt-Hansen, P.; Brosen, K.

    2008-01-01

    Pharmacogenomics is the science about how inherited factors influence the effects of drugs. Drug response is always a result of mutually interacting genes with important modifications from environmental and constitutional factors. Based on the genetic variability of pharmacokinetic and in some...... cases pharmacodynamic variability we mention possible implications for the acute and preventive treatment of migraine. Pharmacogenomics will most likely in the future be one part of our therapeutic armamentarium and will provide a stronger scientific basis for optimizing drug therapy on the basis...

  18. Amazon: Is Profitability a Possibility?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett DENNIS

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s society, companies seem to all be following the same trend; growth in profitability at all cost. Higher profits, for the most part, leads to more investors and more potential financing. Amazon.com appears to be breaking that trend, however. Their strategy seems to be growth, but not in profits. We would like to look into how and why Amazon is growing at such a fast pace, while their profits are staying steady at a very low level. Is profitability a possibility for Amazon? We believe that a marginal increase in price could accomplish just that, with a minimal impact to consumers.

  19. Is self-regulation possible

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkenbus, J.N.

    1983-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's increasingly prescriptive regulation of the nuclear industry can have deleterious effects, perhaps the most serious being the shift in responsibility for safety from the utility to the NRC. Several factors account for this type of regulation including the nature and structure of the nuclear industry, public opinion and bureaucratic incentives, and the nature of the technology itself. The opportunities to create heightened industry self-regulation (performance-based regulation) deserve further examination. The key to self-regulation is to structure incentives so that it is clearly within the nuclear utilities' interests to build and operate nuclear power facilities in the safest manner possible. 27 references

  20. Satellite communications: possibilities and problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hine, M.

    1986-01-01

    Communication links via satellites are becoming available in Europe, both as part of the development of the telephone system and as special services aimed at data traffic. They offer the possibility of speeds between 50 kb/s and 2 Mb/s, without the problems and long term commitments of long distance land lines. Such links are provided by the PTT's as circuits which can be booked for variable periods, and have error rates which can be very low and well controlled. Problems in networking can arise from the satellite delay, particularly if errors occur in the local connections, and from the leased circuit and tariff philosophies of the PTT's. (Auth.)

  1. Testing of Rice Stocks for Their Survival of Winter Cold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Ikehashi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rice cultivation is considered to be initiated by vegetative propagation of sprout from wild perennial stocks. To test whether any presently cultivated rice cultivar can survive the winter cold or not, rice stocks of several cultivars including indica and japonica types were placed in a shallow pool from October to April in 2015–2016 and 2016–2017. During the coldest period of the winter, the bases of the stocks were placed 5–6 cm below the surface of water, where temperatures ranged from 3 °C to 5 °C, while the surface was frozen for two or three times and covered with snow for a day. Only one cultivar, Nipponbare, a japonica type, survived the winter cold and regenerated sprouts in the end of April or early May. A possibility to develop perennial cultivation of rice or perennial hybrid rice is discussed.

  2. Long-term Survival after Metastatic Childhood Melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Anne Kristine; Bybjerg Jensen, Mette; Krag, Christen

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY: Malignant melanoma in children is very rare and accounts for only 1-3% of all melanomas. A congenital melanocytic nevus depending on the size of the lesion is one of the risk factors for developing childhood melanoma because of the possible malignant transformation. Childhood malignant...... of malign melanoma must be in mind when evaluating a pigmented lesion in a pediatric patient. We present a case of a patient born with a congenital nevus diagnosed with metastatic childhood malignant scalp melanoma at the age of 6 years. The patient underwent surgical ablation and reconstruction and has...... survived 26 years without recurrence, thus representing an uplifting case of long-term survival of childhood melanoma....

  3. Seaweed survival after consumption by the greenbeak parrotfish, Scarus trispinosus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tâmega, F. T. S.; Figueiredo, M. A. O.; Ferreira, C. E. L.; Bonaldo, R. M.

    2016-03-01

    We assessed the survival of seaweed (macroalgae and cyanobacteria) after consumption by the greenbeak parrotfish, Scarus trispinosus, in northeastern Brazil. Samples of S. trispinosus feces were collected, inoculated on filter paper, and kept in the laboratory and field for 60 and 30 d, respectively. Comparisons of samples inoculated with feces to those without (controls) revealed a marked increase in the abundance and diversity of seaweed in samples inoculated with feces in both laboratory and field experiments. These results were consistent between summer and winter, although the seaweed species differed. A total of one cyanobacterium and 16 macroalgal taxa (nine rhodophytes, five heterokontophytes, and two chlorophytes) were recorded in the inoculated samples. Rhodophyta also presented the highest abundance across treatments, possibly because of their higher resistance to parrotfish digestion, greater ingestion, or both. The survival of cyanobacteria and macroalgae after consumption by S. trispinosus suggests that parrotfishes may contribute to seaweed dispersion on tropical reefs.

  4. Future possibilities: summary of activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pondrom, L.G.

    1977-01-01

    In ISABELLE, the basic machine will consist of two superconducting rings capable of storing and accelerating high currents of protons to energies up to 400 GeV, and colliding the two beams in six interactions. In order to broaden the experimental capability beyond p--p collisions, two possibilities have traditionally been considered in the past: (1) anti pp collisions, in which antiprotons are somehow stored and accelerated in one of the rings; and (2) ep collisions, in which a third ring is constructed to accelerate electrons. In the 1977 workshop, these two possibilities were reconsidered, the implications of the 400 GeV design were discussed, and some new conclusions were reached. The necessity for high luminosity in anti pp is emphasized, but a definitive best scheme for obtaining this luminosity has not been found. In ep a 20 GeV x 400 GeV combination is appealing, with electrons in a low field conventional ring in the ISABELLE tunnel. It is probably smoother to do ep and pp physics in separate running periods. Vertical crossing is preferred if the electrons are polarized. Synchrotron radiation in the intersecting region remains a problem for detailed design. Extrapolated rate estimates for interesting electromagnetic and weak processes look promising

  5. NET model coil test possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erb, J.; Gruenhagen, A.; Herz, W.; Jentzsch, K.; Komarek, P.; Lotz, E.; Malang, S.; Maurer, W.; Noether, G.; Ulbricht, A.; Vogt, A.; Zahn, G.; Horvath, I.; Kwasnitza, K.; Marinucci, C.; Pasztor, G.; Sborchia, C.; Weymuth, P.; Peters, A.; Roeterdink, A.

    1987-11-01

    A single full size coil for NET/INTOR represents an investment of the order of 40 MUC (Million Unit Costs). Before such an amount of money or even more for the 16 TF coils is invested as much risks as possible must be eliminated by a comprehensive development programme. In the course of such a programme a coil technology verification test should finally prove the feasibility of NET/INTOR TF coils. This study report is almost exclusively dealing with such a verification test by model coil testing. These coils will be built out of two Nb 3 Sn-conductors based on two concepts already under development and investigation. Two possible coil arrangements are discussed: A cluster facility, where two model coils out of the two Nb 3 TF-conductors are used, and the already tested LCT-coils producing a background field. A solenoid arrangement, where in addition to the two TF model coils another model coil out of a PF-conductor for the central PF-coils of NET/INTOR is used instead of LCT background coils. Technical advantages and disadvantages are worked out in order to compare and judge both facilities. Costs estimates and the time schedules broaden the base for a decision about the realisation of such a facility. (orig.) [de

  6. Possible phthalates transport into plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alžbeta Jarošová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Soils can be contaminated by high concentrations of phthalic acid esters (PAE resulting from industrial and intensive agricultural activities. A plant receives water and substances (including pollutants from soil by means of rootage. Water solution received by the roots is distributed in particular by means of xylem. Reception by means of floem is not very considerable. Pollutants (including phthalates can be absorbed by roots either by diffusion by means of soil gas phase or soil liquid phase. Another possible way of pollutant entering into the plant is diffusion from atmosphere. Way of substance entering into the plant is decided by so called Henry constant as well as octanol-water partition coefficient. In case of phthalates, big differences between di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP reception and dioctyl phthalate reception were detected. For example, DBP can enter into the plant by means of gas as well as liquid phase while dioctyl phthalate only by gas phase.This publication summarizes fundamental knowledge on possible phthalates transport into plants.

  7. A possible radiocancerogenesis explanatory model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenta, G.; Trenta, A.

    2000-01-01

    When the radiation induced experimental tumours are plotted against a wide range of doses, then no or not statistical significant values are seen at low doses ( c that an exposed cell will exceed all the three stages is: P c =(1-e -kD ) 3 , where k is the single mutation probability per unit of dose. The mutation process is opposed by the protection and repair mechanisms, like: the antioxidative systems, the repairing enzymatic systems, and so on. They are certainly very efficient being able to repair the numerous 'natural' mutations every day a living organism is subject. It is also plausible to think the lower the dose, the more efficient the repair will be. If this is the case, supposing α being the not exposed cell repairing efficiency, and assuming a Poisson distribution for the repair process of irradiated cell as a function of dose, then the repairing probability in the exposed cell would be: P n =αe -βD , where β is a suitable constant. Therefore the probability the cell will not be repaired is: P r =1-αe -βD . In a living organism among the pool of irradiated cells just the ones escaping the apoptosis and the killing immune system will reach the final malignancy stage. This total killing efficiency increases with increasing doses, following a Poisson distribution in accordance with the radiobiological evidence of the surviving probability: P s =e -D/D0 . Where D 0 is the lethal 50% dose. The final probability of a cell to became cancerous in a living organism because of the radiation will be: P=(1-e -kD ) 3 (1-αe -βD )e -D/D0 . As could be seen the curve shape is in accordance with the experimental probability of neoplastic transformation per irradiated cell and, if reasonable and suitable values for: k, α, β and D 0 are assumed, bearing in mind the number of cells a human organism is constituted, realistic values for the radiation induced cancer risk are obtained. (author)

  8. Struggling to survive in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadasina, A

    1997-01-01

    Abortion has long been the traditional method of family planning (FP) in Russia. Today, abortions are free, but contraception is not. The birth rate has decreased between 1989 and 1995, and the death rate has increased. The present economic situation has had a marked adverse effect on women who are expected to juggle jobs, household duties, and child care responsibilities. In order to survive, women sometimes must engage in work that compromises their health. Many women have resorted in prostitution, and this has caused an unprecedented explosion in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases, especially syphilis. The number of people newly registered as HIV-positive in the first half of 1997 exceeded the total for 1996. While sex education is still restricted, erotica and pornography is widely available. Cases of syphilis are increasing among the young, and, in 1996, about 2500 girls under age 15 gave birth and an equal number had abortions. Only 12% of all pregnant women and 25% of newborn infants can be considered healthy. In 1994, the government launched a FP program that is being carried out by a few public and private organizations. One of these, the Russian FP Association, has created more than 50 branches in different regions, opened youth centers, and provided sex education and reproductive health counseling. The overall effort has led to a 27% reduction in abortions, and a 25% reduction in abortion mortality. These efforts, however, have been opposed by "pro-life" forces and by the Communist wing of the government that reduced the budget. The FP Association is fighting back by lobbying and explaining the need for its work.

  9. Surviving ICU: Stories of recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewens, Beverley A; Hendricks, Joyce M; Sundin, Deborah

    2018-02-28

    The aim of this study was to investigate stories of recovery through the lens of intensive care unit (ICU) survivors. Survival from ICUs is increasing, as are associated physical and psychological complications. Despite the significant impact on survivors, there is inadequate support provision in Australia and world-wide for this population. An interpretive biographical approach of intensive care survivors' experiences of recovery. Data were collected during 2014-2015 from diaries, face to face interviews, memos and field notes. Six participants diarized for 3 months commencing 2 months after hospital discharge. At 5 months, participants were interviewed about the content of their diaries and symbols and signifiers in them to create a shared meaning. Analysis of diaries and interviews were undertaken using two frameworks to identify themes throughout participants' stories and provides a unique portrait of recovery through their individual lens. Participants considered their lives had irreparably changed and yet felt unsupported by a healthcare system that had "saved" them. This view through their lens identified turmoil, which existed between their surface and inner worlds as they struggled to conform to what recovery "should be". The novel biographical methods provided a safe and creative way to reveal survivors' inner thoughts and feelings. Participants' considered creating their stories supported their recovery process and in particular enabled them to reflect on their progress. Findings from this study may lead to increased awareness among health care providers about problems survivors face and improved support services more broadly, based on frameworks appropriate for this population. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Analyzing multivariate survival data using composite likelihood and flexible parametric modeling of the hazard functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jan; Parner, Erik

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we model multivariate time-to-event data by composite likelihood of pairwise frailty likelihoods and marginal hazards using natural cubic splines. Both right- and interval-censored data are considered. The suggested approach is applied on two types of family studies using the gamma...

  11. Foreign Ownership and Long-term Survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronborg, Dorte; Thomsen, Steen

    2006-01-01

    probability. On average exit risk for domestic companies is 2.3 times higher than for foreign companies. First movers like Siemens, Philips, Kodak, Ford, GM or Goodyear have been active in the country for almost a century. Relative foreign survival increases with company age. However, the foreign survival...

  12. Nematode survival in relation to soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, W.R.

    1973-01-01

    Established nematode populations are very persistent in the soil. It is known that they need sufficient soil moisture for movement, feeding and reproduction (fig. 5), and that there are adverse soil moisture conditions which they cannot survive. The influence of soil moisture on survival

  13. Survival Processing and the Stroop Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie A. Kazanas

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study was designed to investigate the impact of survival processing with a novel task for this paradigm: the Stroop color-naming task. As the literature is mixed with regard to task generalizability, with survival processing promoting better memory for words, but not better memory for faces or paired associates, these types of task investigations are important to a growing field of research. Using the Stroop task provides a unique contribution, as identifying items by color is an important evolutionary adaptation and not specific to humans as is the case with word recall. Our results indicate that survival processing, with its accompanying survival-relevance rating task, remains the best mnemonic strategy for word memory. However, our results also indicate that presenting the survival passage does not motivate better color-naming performance than color-naming alone. In addition, survival processing led to a larger amount of Stroop interference, though not significantly larger than the other conditions. Together, these findings suggest that considering one’s survival when performing memory and attention-based tasks does not enhance cognitive performance generally, although greater allocation of attentional resources to color-incongruent concrete objects could be considered adaptive. These findings support the notion that engaging in deeper processing via survival-relevance ratings may preserve these words across a variety of experimental manipulations.

  14. How can survival processing improve memory encoding?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Meng; Geng, Haiyan

    2013-11-01

    We investigated the psychological mechanism of survival processing advantage from the perspective of false memory in two experiments. Using a DRM paradigm in combination with analysis based on signal detection theory, we were able to separately examine participants' utilization of verbatim representation and gist representation. Specifically, in Experiment 1, participants rated semantically related words in a survival scenario for a survival condition but rated pleasantness of words in the same DRM lists for a non-survival control condition. The results showed that participants demonstrated more gist processing in the survival condition than in the pleasantness condition; however, the degree of item-specific processing in the two encoding conditions did not significantly differ. In Experiment 2, the control task was changed to a category rating task, in which participants were asked to make category ratings of words in the category lists. We found that the survival condition involved more item-specific processing than did the category condition, but we found no significant difference between the two encoding conditions at the level of gist processing. Overall, our study demonstrates that survival processing can simultaneously promote gist and item-specific representations. When the control tasks only promoted either item-specific representation or gist representation, memory advantages of survival processing occurred.

  15. Escherichia coli survival in waters: Temperature dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowing the survival rates of water-borne Escherichia coli is important in evaluating microbial contamination and making appropriate management decisions. E. coli survival rates are dependent on temperature, a dependency that is routinely expressed using an analogue of the Q10 mo...

  16. Adaptive Memory: Is Survival Processing Special?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nairne, James S.; Pandeirada, Josefa N. S.

    2008-01-01

    Do the operating characteristics of memory continue to bear the imprints of ancestral selection pressures? Previous work in our laboratory has shown that human memory may be specially tuned to retain information processed in terms of its survival relevance. A few seconds of survival processing in an incidental learning context can produce recall…

  17. Socioeconomic position and survival after cervical cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibfelt, E H; Kjær, S K; Høgdall, C

    2013-01-01

    In an attempt to decrease social disparities in cancer survival, it is important to consider the mechanisms by which socioeconomic position influences cancer prognosis. We aimed to investigate whether any associations between socioeconomic factors and survival after cervical cancer could...... be explained by socioeconomic differences in cancer stage, comorbidity, lifestyle factors or treatment....

  18. Survival Processing Enhances Visual Search Efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Kit W

    2018-05-01

    Words rated for their survival relevance are remembered better than when rated using other well-known memory mnemonics. This finding, which is known as the survival advantage effect and has been replicated in many studies, suggests that our memory systems are molded by natural selection pressures. In two experiments, the present study used a visual search task to examine whether there is likewise a survival advantage for our visual systems. Participants rated words for their survival relevance or for their pleasantness before locating that object's picture in a search array with 8 or 16 objects. Although there was no difference in search times among the two rating scenarios when set size was 8, survival processing reduced visual search times when set size was 16. These findings reflect a search efficiency effect and suggest that similar to our memory systems, our visual systems are also tuned toward self-preservation.

  19. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  20. Does biological relatedness affect child survival?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: We studied child survival in Rakai, Uganda where many children are fostered out or orphaned. Methods: Biological relatedness is measured as the average of the Wright's coefficients between each household member and the child. Instrumental variables for fostering include proportion of adult males in household, age and gender of household head. Control variables include SES, religion, polygyny, household size, child age, child birth size, and child HIV status. Results: Presence of both parents in the household increased the odds of survival by 28%. After controlling for the endogeneity of child placement decisions in a multivariate model we found that lower biological relatedness of a child was associated with statistically significant reductions in child survival. The effects of biological relatedness on child survival tend to be stronger for both HIV- and HIV+ children of HIV+ mothers. Conclusions: Reductions in the numbers of close relatives caring for children of HIV+ mothers reduce child survival.

  1. ECDIS Possibilities for BWE Adoption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srdjan ŽuŁkin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS development and implementation have been linked primarily to the safety of navigation. Further development allows the implementation from other aspects of navigation. This primarily pertains to the Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP from Ballast Water Exchange (BWE and the use of ECDIS system for improving environmental protection. The paper contains an overview of important legal aspects of sea environment protection related to the Ballast Water Management (BWM Convention on global as well as on local scale. Apart from enhancing the safety of navigation, integration of the proposed tool for sea environment protection in the ECDIS with onboard ballast water system can significantly contribute to sea and sea environment protection from harmful substances. In this paper, the architecture of such system is suggested. This approach also ensures a reduction of possible consequences on ecological incidents and human errors.

  2. Possible consequences of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    Speeches of Soviet and foreign scientists at the Second Section of 2d All-UNION conference of scientists on problems of peace and prevention of nuclear war related to possible consequences of nuclear war have been considered. It is noted that production of a large amount of aerosol particles, dust, smoke and combustion products due to forest-fires, fires in cities, which change considerably atmosphere properties, will be the greatest effect of nuclear strike from the point of view of global consequencies. ''Nuclear winter'', photosynthesis suppression, plant bioproductivity weakening, long-term climate changes, ozone layer disturbance, mass and irreversible degeneration of all biosphere on the whole are great consequencies of nuclear conflict. Attention is paid to medical service, industrial accidents, radioactive fallouts consequence of radiation and other harmful factors for people in nuclear war

  3. Analysis of possible fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehm, H.; Kessler, G.; Engelmann, P.; Maerkl, H.; Stoll, W.

    1978-01-01

    A brief survey is presented of the most important fuel cycles. A rough analysis of fuel cycles is attempted under the aspects of proliferation, status of technical feasibility, resource conservation and waste management and the most important criteria for such an analysis are discussed. Among the multitude of potential combinations of fuel cycles and types of reactors only a few have reached a level of technical feasibility which would make them eligible for commercial implementation within the next decade. However, if, for instance, the higher proliferation resistance of a specific fuel cycle is to be utilized to diminish the worldwide proliferation hazard, that cycle would first of all have to be introduced on an industrial scale as quickly as possible. The analysis shows that the reduction of the bazard of worldwide proliferation will continue to be the objective primarily of international agreements and measures taken in the political realm. (orig.) [de

  4. Future possibilities in migraine genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudkjøbing, Laura Aviaja; Esserlind, Ann-Louise; Olesen, Jes

    2012-01-01

    Migraine with and without aura (MA and MO, respectively) have a strong genetic basis. Different approaches using linkage-, candidate gene- and genome-wide association studies have been explored, yielding limited results. This may indicate that the genetic component in migraine is due to rare...... variants; capturing these will require more detailed sequencing in order to be discovered. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) techniques such as whole exome and whole genome sequencing have been successful in finding genes in especially monogenic disorders. As the molecular genetics research progresses......, the technology will follow, rendering these approaches more applicable in the search for causative migraine genes in MO and MA. To date, no studies using NGS in migraine genetics have been published. In order to gain insight into the future possibilities of migraine genetics, we have looked at NGS studies...

  5. Are baryonic galactic halos possible

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olive, K.A.; Hegyi, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    There is little doubt from the rotation curves of spiral galaxies that galactic halos must contain large amounts of dark matter. In this contribution, the authors review arguments which indicate that it is very unlikely that galactic halos contain substantial amounts of baryonic matter. While the authors would like to be able to present a single argument which would rule out baryonic matter, at the present time they are only able to present a collection of arguments each of which argues against one form of baryonic matter. These include: 1) snowballs; 2) gas; 3) low mass stars and Jupiters; 4) high mass stars; and 5) high metalicity objects such as rooks or dust. Black holes, which do not have a well defined baryon number, are also a possible candidate for halo matter. They briefly discuss black holes

  6. POSSIBLE ROLES OF EPIPLOIC APPENDAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Di Noto

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Historically, only the energy storage function had been attributed to adipose tissue. However, recent studies have shown that it is also able to secrete several substances which act in a paracrine or endocrine manner, contributing to the maintenance of organism’s homeostasis. It has been reported that the visceral fat has distinctive secreting characteristics. Based on previous scientific observations, here we shall describe the possible functional role of epiploic appendages. The epiploic appendages may play an important role in the metabolic regulation and/or in immune defense through the secretion of specific factors, such as leptin and some inflammatory cytokines. Leptin has been seen to be involved both in the regulation of hunger signals, in coordination with the hypothalamus, and in complex immune defense processes. The exact understanding of the behavior of this hormone could play a key role in understanding the functions ascribed to the epiploic appendages.

  7. Moving from objects to possibilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Donovan, Jared; Gunn, Wendy

    2012-01-01

    and controls that determine indoor climate. A central issue in relating perceptions and experiences of indoor climate to wider structures and systems is finding ways of supporting company, university partners and users to imagine possibilities instead of certainties in terms of innovation potential. Whereas....... This involves opening up pathways within wider structures and systems for improvisation, at the same time finding ways of negotiating openness and closure with materials. How then do design materials support partial understandings of indoor climate between researchers, users and company partners in situated......, researchers and industry partners working in the field of indoor climate emphasize identifiable, measurable, parameters of comfort and focus their efforts on engineering products and systems based upon behavioural models, as researchers interested in the notion of participatory innovation, we engage...

  8. [Possibilities of psychoprophylaxis in epilepsy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilikiewicz, A

    1976-01-01

    The psychiatrist should be given also their share in the prevetion of epilepsy by means of raising the psychiatric culture of the society and teaching the population the principles of mental hygiene and psychoprophylaxia. The possibilities of psychiatry in prophylactic management of patients with developed epilepsy include: 1. Energetic measures for controlling attacks which has many psychoprophylactic aspects. 2. Prevention of psychotraumatizing situations leading to secondary neurotic, psychotic and other reactions and behaviour disorders of the type of homilopathy and sociopathy, 3. Counteracting the development of mental and social disability in epileptics. Treatment of epilepsy should be conducted from its very beginning in cooperation with psychiatrists and therapeutic psychologists. The probems of prophylaxis cannot be separated from prophylactic treatment, psychotherapy sociotherapy and rehabilitation.

  9. Possible climates on terrestrial exoplanets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F; Leconte, J

    2014-04-28

    What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on exoplanetary climates, for instance, to optimize future telescopic observations or to assess the probability of habitable worlds. To begin with, climate primarily depends on (i) the atmospheric composition and the volatile inventory; (ii) the incident stellar flux; and (iii) the tidal evolution of the planetary spin, which can notably lock a planet with a permanent night side. The atmospheric composition and mass depends on complex processes, which are difficult to model: origins of volatiles, atmospheric escape, geochemistry, photochemistry, etc. We discuss physical constraints, which can help us to speculate on the possible type of atmosphere, depending on the planet size, its final distance for its star and the star type. Assuming that the atmosphere is known, the possible climates can be explored using global climate models analogous to the ones developed to simulate the Earth as well as the other telluric atmospheres in the solar system. Our experience with Mars, Titan and Venus suggests that realistic climate simulators can be developed by combining components, such as a 'dynamical core', a radiative transfer solver, a parametrization of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model and a volatile phase change code. On this basis, we can aspire to build reliable climate predictors for exoplanets. However, whatever the accuracy of the models, predicting the actual climate regime on a specific planet will remain challenging because climate systems are affected by strong positive feedbacks. They can drive planets with very similar forcing and volatile inventory to completely different states. For instance, the coupling among temperature, volatile phase changes and radiative properties results in instabilities, such as runaway glaciations and runaway greenhouse effect.

  10. Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

  11. Lamb survival analysis from birth to weaning in Iranian Kermani sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazandeh, Arsalan; Moghbeli, Sadrollah Molaei; Vatankhah, Mahmood; Hossein-Zadeh, Navid Ghavi

    2012-04-01

    Survival records from 1,763 Kermani lambs born between 1996 and 2004 from 294 ewes and 81 rams were used to determine genetic and non-genetic factors affecting lamb survival. Traits included were lamb survival across five periods from birth to 7, 14, 56, 70, and 90 days of age. Traits were analyzed under Weibull proportional hazard sire models. Several binary analyses were also conducted using animal models. Statistical models included the fixed class effects of sex of lamb, month and year of birth, a covariate effect of birth weight, and random genetic effects of both sire (in survival analyses) and animal (in binary analyses). The average survival to 90 days of age was 94.8%. Hazard rates ranged from 1.00 (birth to 90 days of age) to 1.73 (birth to 7 days of age) between the two sexes indicating that male lambs were at higher risk of mortality than females (P lamb survival and lamb birth weight, suggesting that viability and birth weight could be considered simultaneously in the selection programs to obtain optimal birth weight in Kermani lambs. Estimates of heritabilities from survival analyses were medium and ranged from 0.23 to 0.29. In addition, heritability estimates obtained from binary analyses were low and varied from 0.04 to 0.09. The results of this study suggest that progress in survival traits could be possible through managerial strategies and genetic selection.

  12. Cancer survival among Alaska Native people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Sarah H; Meisner, Angela L W; Zimpelman, Garrett L; Barry, Marc; Wiggins, Charles L

    2018-03-26

    Recent cancer survival trends among American Indian and Alaska Native (AN) people are not well understood; survival has not been reported among AN people since 2001. This study examined cause-specific survival among AN cancer patients for lung, colorectal, female breast, prostate, and kidney cancers. It evaluated whether survival differed between cancers diagnosed in 1992-2002 (the earlier period) and cancers diagnosed in 2003-2013 (the later period) and by the age at diagnosis (<65 vs ≥65 years), stage at diagnosis (local or regional/distant/unknown), and sex. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate univariate and multivariate-adjusted cause-specific survival for each cancer. An improvement was observed in 5-year survival over time from lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR] for the later period vs the earlier period, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.97), and a marginally nonsignificant improvement was observed for colorectal cancer (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.01). Site-specific differences in survival were observed by age and stage at diagnosis. This study presents the first data on cancer survival among AN people in almost 2 decades. During this time, AN people have experienced improvements in survival from lung and colorectal cancers. The reasons for these improvements may include increased access to care (including screening) as well as improvements in treatment. Improving cancer survival should be a priority for reducing the burden of cancer among AN people and eliminating cancer disparities. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  13. Spore Acquisition and Survival of Ambrosia Beetles Associated with the Laurel Wilt Pathogen in Avocados after Exposure to Entomopathogenic Fungi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasco B. Avery

    2018-04-01

    impact for each entomopathogenic fungus per beetle species after exposure to a filter paper disk treated at the same fungal suspension concentration. Kaplan–Meier analysis (censored at day 7 revealed that each beetle species survived significantly shorter in bioassays containing disks treated with EPF compared to water only. This study demonstrated that ambrosia beetles associated with the laurel wilt pathogen in avocados are susceptible to infection by EPF under laboratory conditions. However, the EPF needs to be tested under field conditions to confirm their efficacy against the beetles.

  14. Spore Acquisition and Survival of Ambrosia Beetles Associated with the Laurel Wilt Pathogen in Avocados after Exposure to Entomopathogenic Fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Pasco B; Bojorque, Verónica; Gámez, Cecilia; Duncan, Rita E; Carrillo, Daniel; Cave, Ronald D

    2018-04-25

    impact for each entomopathogenic fungus per beetle species after exposure to a filter paper disk treated at the same fungal suspension concentration. Kaplan⁻Meier analysis (censored at day 7) revealed that each beetle species survived significantly shorter in bioassays containing disks treated with EPF compared to water only. This study demonstrated that ambrosia beetles associated with the laurel wilt pathogen in avocados are susceptible to infection by EPF under laboratory conditions. However, the EPF needs to be tested under field conditions to confirm their efficacy against the beetles.

  15. How can tropical cyclones survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedman, Ann-Sofi

    2013-04-01

    How can tropical cyclones survive? It is important for understanding the development of tropical cyclones to be able to quantify the exchange of enthalpy and momentum between air and water. Air-sea fluxes are often formulated as drag CD and enthalpy CK exchange coefficients. Emanuel, 1986, derived an expression for potential intensity that depends on local environment parameters and is proportional to the ratio of enthalpy and drag coefficients. This ratio should be larger than 0.75 for a cyclone to develop. There are no direct surface measurements of CK/ CD under hurricane conditions and extrapolation from most open-ocean measurements at 25 m/s gives values of CK/ CD0.75 is in accordance with Emanuel's prediction. The high CK values are observed during situations when there is a regime shift of the structure of turbulence in the boundary layer. From spectral analysis it was found that as the boundary layer approaches neutral stratification, smaller-scale eddies become increasingly important in the turbulent transport of humidity and sensible heat and thus enhance the exchange coefficient CK. This turbulence regime is called the UVCN regime and require high wind speed, small temperature difference between air and water, sufficiently strong wind gradients and growing sea condition ( Smedman et al., 2007, Sahlee et al., 2008). What is the difference between world oceans and enclosed seas? The answer is the waves. The wave field over the open oceans is swell dominated but in enclosed seas and coastal areas swell is restricted mainly to low wind speed conditions, and swell is short lived because of short distances to the shores. When swell is present the MABL will be dominated by large eddies of zi size creating weak gradients of wind, temperature and humidity and thus small scale eddies cannot be formed leading to reduced CK-values. However, during hurricane condition the waves are expected to be young, stratification is close to neutral and gradients are sufficiently

  16. Human survival depends on nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbertson, J.

    1977-01-01

    Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times published feature articles Dec. 1 advertising a report by the U.S. government's General Accounting Office as evidence that the breeder reactor component of this nation's nuclear energy program was properly on its way to the scrap heap. According to the author, these and similar press accounts are intended to further legitimize the widely believed (and totally false) notion that increased plutonium use and nuclear fission generally represent a danger to humanity. Purposefully ignored in such accounts, he says, is the evidence that the elimination of plutonium as a nuclear fuel will mean the demise of the entire U.S. nuclear power industry and ultimately the human race itself. At stake in the short term, in addition to the breeder reactor program, is the well-established use of light water reactors for generating electricity, since these must, within a matter of years, be fueled with plutonium. The attack is also directed at the more advanced, more capital-intensive nuclear fusion technology, since the elimination of fission programs will wipe out the trained cadre force of engineers, scientists, technicians, and skilled workers needed to develop fusion power. The growth of fission power over the next two decades is absolutely necessary for the transition to a full fusion-based economy, according to Mr. Gilbertson. Only nuclear fusion has the inherent capability of transforming industry to the necessary higher mode of production and output, as well as providing a limitless source of usable power in several forms, thus insuring the survival of the human race beyond this century. Fission power and conventional fossil power must be expanded and possibly even exhausted during this transition in order to guarantee the achievement of this goal, he says

  17. Training the brain to survive stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff F Dunn

    Full Text Available Presently, little can be done to repair brain tissue after stroke damage. We hypothesized that the mammalian brain has an intrinsic capacity to adapt to low oxygen which would improve outcome from a reversible hypoxic/ischemic episode. Acclimation to chronic hypoxia causes increased capillarity and tissue oxygen levels which may improve the capacity to survive ischemia. Identification of these adaptations will lead to protocols which high risk groups could use to improve recovery and reduce costs.Rats were exposed to hypoxia (3 weeks living at ½ an atmosphere. After acclimation, capillary density was measured morphometrically and was increased by 30% in the cortex. Novel implantable oxygen sensors showed that partial pressure of oxygen in the brain was increased by 40% in the normal cortex. Infarcts were induced in brain with 1 h reversible middle cerebral artery occlusions. After ischemia (48 h behavioural scores were improved and T2 weighted MRI lesion volumes were reduced by 52% in acclimated groups. There was a reduction in inflammation indicated by reduced lymphocytes (by 27-33%, and ED1 positive cells (by 35-45%.It is possible to stimulate a natural adaptive mechanism in the brain which will reduce damage and improve outcome for a given ischemic event. Since these adaptations occur after factors such as HIF-1α have returned to baseline, protection is likely related more to morphological changes such as angiogenesis. Such pre-conditioning, perhaps with exercise or pharmaceuticals, would not necessarily reduce the incidence of stroke, but the severity of damage could be reduced by 50%.

  18. Mathematical simulation of influence of irradiated cell reparative system saturation on cell survival. Communication 1. Simulation of survival curves in prokaryotes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knyigavko, V.G.; Meshcheryakova, O.P.; Radzyishevs'ka, Je.B.

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical models of the processes of forming survival curves for prokaryotes which are based on the idea about the possibility of saturation of radiation lesion reparation systems of DNA of the irradiated cells at the dose increase were worked out. For the simplest of the discussed models the authors discuss the question about the methods of evaluation of the model parameters

  19. A preliminary study on action mechanisms of surviving expression in cell apoptosis induced by high-LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Xiaodong; Li Qiang; Gong Li; Wu Qingfeng; Li Ping; Dai Zhongying; Liu Xinguo; Tao Jiajun

    2010-01-01

    It has been proven that over-expression of surviving in cancerous cell lines is related to the radioresistance of cells to high-LET radiation in previous work. In this study, action mechanisms of surviving gene in apoptosis induced by high-LET radiation were investigated. We found that inhibiting surviving by siRNA had no notable influence on Bcl-2 and Bax expressions induced by carbon ions. Surviving depressed cell apoptosis through the inhibition of the activities of caspase-3 and -9 possibly in cell apoptosis induced by high-LET radiation. (authors)

  20. Association Among Blood Transfusion, Sepsis, and Decreased Long-term Survival After Colon Cancer Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquina, Christopher T; Blumberg, Neil; Becerra, Adan Z; Boscoe, Francis P; Schymura, Maria J; Noyes, Katia; Monson, John R T; Fleming, Fergal J

    2017-08-01

    , independent of sepsis, after colon cancer resection. However, receiving a transfusion and developing sepsis has an additive effect and is associated with even worse survival. Restrictive perioperative transfusion practices are a possible strategy to reduce sepsis rates and improve survival after colon cancer surgery.