WorldWideScience

Sample records for positive forecast impact

  1. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  2. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  3. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  4. Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for the timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and

  5. The impact of scatterometer wind data on global weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, D.; Baker, W. E.; Kalnay, E.; Halem, M.; Woiceshyn, P. M.; Peteherych, S.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.

  6. Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

    2017-05-01

    Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  8. AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

  9. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  10. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  11. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  12. Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendt, P F [ed.

    1976-01-01

    Chapter titles include: introduction and overview; national and regional econometric models; growth and change in the Georgia regional economies; a Delphi approach to land use forecasting; land suitability and land use analysis; the interaction of transportation and land use; and, summary and conclusions. Lists of tables and figures are also included. (JGB)

  13. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  14. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013)such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach we

  15. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013) such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this

  16. Methodological Approach to Company Cash Flows Target-Oriented Forecasting Based on Financial Position Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sergey Krylov

    2012-01-01

    The article treats a new methodological approach to the company cash flows target-oriented forecasting based on its financial position analysis. The approach is featured to be universal and presumes application of the following techniques developed by the author: financial ratio values correction techniques and correcting cash flows techniques. The financial ratio values correction technique assumes to analyze and forecast company financial position while the correcting cash flows technique i...

  17. On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power. (author)

  18. Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

    2014-01-01

    The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere–ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system—System 4—has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981–2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid

  19. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  20. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  1. Forecasting with quantitative methods the impact of special events in time series

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Quantitative methods are very successful for producing baseline forecasts of time series; however these models fail to forecast neither the timing nor the impact of special events such as promotions or strikes. In most of the cases the timing of such events is not known so they are usually referred as shocks (economics) or special events (forecasting). Sometimes the timing of such events is known a priori (i.e. a future promotion); but even then the impact of the forthcom...

  2. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  3. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yildiz Baran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM, are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN, support vector machines (SVM and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some

  4. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Baran; Bilbao, Jose I.; Dore, Jonathon; Sproul, Alistair B.

    2018-05-01

    Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM), are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some households vary

  5. An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.

  6. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    strategies for the investment manager in relations to Nigeria stock market ... Forecasting generally involves using information from the past to make decision ..... that both number of share in unit and number of deal in share cannot account.

  7. The Impact of Distributed Generation Systems in the Load Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Benedicto Llorens, Juan Manuel

    2009-01-01

    Projecte fet en col.laboració amb l'Instituto Superior Tecnico. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy. It has many applications including energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation and infrastructure development. Because of this, a large variety of mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. In addition, the large-scale integration of wind power, now...

  8. The impact of short term traffic forecasting on the effectiveness of vehicles routes planning in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubek, D.

    2016-07-01

    An impossibility to foresee in advance the accurate traffic parameters in face of dynamism phenomena in complex transportation system is a one of the major source of uncertainty. The paper presents an approach to robust optimization of logistics vehicle routes in urban areas on the basis of estimated short-term traffic time forecasts in a selected area of the urban road network. The forecast values of optimization parameters have been determined using the spectral analysis model, taking into account the forecast uncertainty degree. The robust counterparts approach of uncertain bi-criteria shortest path problem formulation is used to determining the robust routes for logistics vehicles in the urban network. The uncertainty set is created on the basis of forecast travel times in chosen sections, estimated by means of spectral analysis. The advantages and the characteristics are exemplified in the actual Krakow road network. The obtained data have been compared with classic approach wherein it is assumed that the optimization parameters are certain and accurate. The results obtained in the simulation example indicate that use of forecasting techniques with robust optimization models has a positive impact on the quality of final solutions. (Author)

  9. Impact of Public Aggregate Wind Forecasts on Electricity Market Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Following a call to foster a transparent and more competitive market, member states of the European transmission system operator are required to publish, among other information, aggregate wind power forecasts. The publication of the latter information is expected to benefit market participants...... by offering better knowledge of the market operation, leading subsequently to a more competitive energy market. Driven by the above regulation, we consider an equilibrium study to address how public information of aggregate wind power forecasts can potentially affect market results, social welfare as well...... as the profits of participating power producers. We investigate, therefore, a joint day-ahead energy and reserve auction, where producers offer their conventional power strategically based on a complementarity approach and their wind power at generation cost based on a forecast. In parallel, an iterative game...

  10. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting for the 3D Point Position Changing by Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni-Georgia Alevizakou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting is one of the most growing areas in most sciences attracting the attention of many researchers for more extensive study. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an integrated forecasting methodology based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, which is a modern and attractive intelligent technique. The final result is to provide short-term and long-term forecasts for point position changing, i.e., the displacement or deformation of the surface they belong to. The motivation was the combination of two thoughts, the insertion of the forecasting concept in Geodesy as in the most scientific disciplines (e.g., Economics, Medicine and the desire to know the future position of any point on a construction or on the earth’s crustal. This methodology was designed to be accurate, stable and general for different kind of geodetic data. The basic procedure consists of the definition of the forecasting problem, the preliminary data analysis (data pre-processing, the definition of the most suitable ANN, its evaluation using the proper criteria and finally the production of forecasts. The methodology gives particular emphasis on the stages of the pre-processing and the evaluation. Additionally, the importance of the prediction intervals (PI is emphasized. A case study, which includes geodetic data from the year 2003 to the year 2016—namely X, Y, Z coordinates—is implemented. The data were acquired by 1000 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS stations. During this case study, 2016 ANNs—with different hyper-parameters—are trained and tested for short-term forecasting and 2016 for long-term forecasting, for each of the GNSS stations. In addition, other conventional statistical forecasting methods are used for the same purpose using the same data set. Finally the most appropriate Non-linear Autoregressive Recurrent network (NAR or Non-linear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX for the forecasting of 3D point

  11. AMSR2 all-sky radiance assimilation and its impact on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy with a limited-area data assimilation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A method to assimilate all-sky radiances from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2 was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model's data assimilation (WRFDA system. The four essential elements are: (1 extending the community radiative transform model's (CRTM interface to include hydrometeor profiles; (2 using total water Qt as the moisture control variable; (3 using a warm-rain physics scheme for partitioning the Qt increment into individual increments of water vapour, cloud liquid water and rain; and (4 adopting a symmetric observation error model for all-sky radiance assimilation.Compared to a benchmark experiment with no AMSR2 data, the impact of assimilating clear-sky or all-sky AMSR2 radiances on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy (2012 was assessed through analysis/forecast cycling experiments using WRF and WRFDA's three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation scheme. With more cloud/precipitation-affected data being assimilated around tropical cyclone (TC core areas in the all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiment, better analyses were obtained in terms of the TC's central sea level pressure (CSLP, warm-core structure and cloud distribution. Substantial (>20 % error reduction in track and CSLP forecasts was achieved from both clear-sky and all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiments, and this improvement was consistent from the analysis time to 72-h forecasts. Moreover, the all-sky assimilation experiment consistently yielded better track and CSLP forecasts than the clear-sky did for all forecast lead times, due to a better analysis in the TC core areas. Positive forecast impact from assimilating AMSR2 radiances is also seen when verified against the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analysis and the Stage IV precipitation analysis, with an overall larger positive impact from the all-sky assimilation experiment.

  12. Low flows: mechanisms, forecasts and climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    A research on low flows may seem controversial for a “wet” country protected by dykes and barriers. However, low flows in dry summers such as in 1976, 1985 and 2003 indicate that it may happen also in the Rhine basin. Improved medium-range and seasonal low fow forecasts are important as there is an

  13. Impact of GFZ's Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts on Polar Motion Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Robert; Dobslaw, Henryk

    2017-04-01

    The Earth System Modelling group at GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam offers now 6-day forecasts of Earth rotation excitation due to atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic angular momentum changes that are consistent with its 40 years-long EAM series. Those EAM forecasts are characterized by an improved long-term consistency due to the introduction of a time-invariant high-resolution reference topography into the AAM processing that accounts for occasional NWP model changes. In addition, all tidal signals from both atmosphere and ocean have been separated, and the temporal resolution of both AAM and OAM has been increased to 3 hours. Analysis of an extended set of EAM short-term hindcasts revealed positive prediction skills for up to 6 days into the future when compared to a persistent forecast. Whereas UT1 predictions in particular rely on an accurate AAM forecast, skillfull polar motion prediction requires high-quality OAM forecasts as well. We will present in this contribution the results from a multi-year hindcast experiment, demonstrating that the polar motion prediction as currently available from Bulletin A can be improved in particular for lead-times between 2 and 5 days by incorporating OAM forecasts. We will also report about early results obtained at Observatoire de Paris to predict polar motion from the integration of GFZ's 6-day EAM forecasts into the Liouville equation in a routine setting, that fully takes into account the operational latencies of all required input products.

  14. Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cole Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

  15. AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W. K.; Susskind, J.; Rosenberg, R.

    2011-01-01

    A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

  16. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  17. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  18. The impact of wind forecast errors on the efficiency of the Ontario electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, H.

    2008-01-01

    Ontario's Independent System Operator (IESO) is currently involved in a number of wind projects in the province, and has developed both a resource commitment and dispatch timeline in relation to increased wind power penetration in the Ontario electricity grid. This presentation discussed the impacts of wind forecast errors on the province's electricity market. Day-ahead planning is used to commit fossil fuels and gas resources, while 3-hours ahead planning is used to commit generation in real time. Inter-ties are committed 1 hour ahead of dispatch. Over-forecasts for wind can cause market prices to increase in real-time, or cause markets to miss opportunities to schedule cheaper imports. The inefficient scheduling caused by overforecasts can also lead to exports not being purchases at high enough prices. Under-forecasts can cause market prices to decrease, and may cause imports to be scheduled that would not have been economic at lower prices. The scheduling difficulties related to under-forecasting can cause markets to miss opportunities to schedule efficient exports. Wind facility forecast errors typically improve closer to real-time. One-hour ahead wind forecast errors can reach approximately 12 per cent. The annual costs of overforecasting are under $200,000. Underforecasting costs are usually less than $30,000. The costs of the wind forecasting inefficiencies are relatively small in the $10 billion electricity market. It was concluded that system operators will continue to track forecast errors and inefficiencies as wind power capacity in the electric power industry increases. tabs., figs

  19. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  20. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  1. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Nebraska: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Nebraska to give tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact that…

  2. Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

  3. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  4. Forecasting inflation based on the consumer price index, taking into account the impact of seasonal factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Sapova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.

  5. Neuroscientists' classroom visits positively impact student attitudes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L Fitzakerley

    Full Text Available The primary recommendation of the 2010 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology report on K-12 education was to inspire more students so that they are motivated to study science. Scientists' visits to classrooms are intended to inspire learners and increase their interest in science, but verifications of this impact are largely qualitative. Our primary goal was to evaluate the impact of a longstanding Brain Awareness classroom visit program focused on increasing learners understanding of their own brains. Educational psychologists have established that neuroscience training sessions can improve academic performance and shift attitudes of students from a fixed mindset to a growth mindset. Our secondary goal was to determine whether short interactive Brain Awareness scientist-in-the-classroom sessions could similarly alter learners' perceptions of their own potential to learn. Teacher and student surveys were administered in 4(th-6(th grade classrooms throughout Minnesota either before or after one-hour Brain Awareness sessions that engaged students in activities related to brain function. Teachers rated the Brain Awareness program as very valuable and said that the visits stimulated students' interest in the brain and in science. Student surveys probed general attitudes towards science and their knowledge of neuroscience concepts (particularly the ability of the brain to change. Significant favorable improvements were found on 10 of 18 survey statements. Factor analyses of 4805 responses demonstrated that Brain Awareness presentations increased positive attitudes toward science and improved agreement with statements related to growth mindset. Overall effect sizes were small, consistent with the short length of the presentations. Thus, the impact of Brain Awareness presentations was positive and proportional to the efforts expended, demonstrating that short, scientist-in-the-classroom visits can make a positive contribution to

  6. Forecasting market impact costs and identifying expensive trades

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Spierdijk, L.; Hoevenaars, R.P.M.M.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    Often, a relatively small group of trades causes the major part of the trading costs on an investment portfolio. For the equity trades studied in this paper, executed by the world's second largest pension fund, we find that only 10% of all trades determines 75% of total market impact costs.

  7. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Maryland: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Maryland to give tax credits to businesses for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools or which contribute to innovative educational programs in the public schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of a tax-credit…

  8. Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

  9. Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc. - qualitative as well as quantitative - depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies

  10. Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Soldatenko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator global numerical weather prediction (NWP system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%, radiosondes (10.5%, wind profilers (3.9%, pilot balloons (2.8%, buoys (1.7% and ships (1.2%. In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

  11. Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pineda, Salvador; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation...... and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts...... and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using...

  12. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    OpenAIRE

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. ...

  13. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  14. The Impact of Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Matthew (2016) Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pei; Li, Jun; Li, Zhenglong; Lim, Agnes H. N.; Li, Jinlong; Schmit, Timothy J.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders provide high vertical resolution atmospheric sounding information that can improve the forecast skill in numerical weather prediction. Commonly, only clear radiances are assimilated, because IR sounder observations are highly affected by clouds. A cloud-clearing (CC) technique, which removes the cloud effects from an IR cloudy field of view (FOV) and derives the cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) or clear-sky equivalent radiances, can be an alternative yet effective way to take advantage of the thermodynamic information from cloudy skies in data assimilation. This study develops a Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-based CC method for deriving Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) CCRs under partially cloudy conditions. Due to the lack of absorption bands on VIIRS, two important quality control steps are implemented in the CC process. Validation using VIIRS clear radiances indicates that the CC method can effectively obtain the CrIS CCRs for FOVs with partial cloud cover. To compare the impacts from assimilation of CrIS original radiances and CCRs, three experiments are carried out on two storm cases, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Hurricane Matthew (2016), using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation assimilation system and Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Version models. At the analysis time, more CrIS observations are assimilated when using CrIS CCRs than with CrIS original radiances. Comparing temperature, specific humidity, and U/V winds with radiosondes indicates that the data impacts are growing larger with longer time forecasts (beyond 72 h forecast). Hurricane track forecasts also show improvements from the assimilation of CrIS CCRs due to better weather system forecasts. The impacts of CCRs on intensity are basically neutral with mixed positive and negative results.

  15. Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

  16. Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Dembek, Scott R.; Santos, Pablo; Lapenta, William M.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past few years,studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite sea-surface temperature (SST) products in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. The recent paper by LaCasse et al. (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPoRT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The scientific hypothesis being tested is: More accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running the WRF system in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software; The EMS is a standalone modeling system capable of downloading the necessary daily datasets, and initializing, running and displaying WRF forecasts in the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with little intervention required by forecasters. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily with start times of 0300,0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and the far

  17. Impact of a high density GPS network on the operational forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Faccani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Global Positioning System Zenith Total Delay (GPS ZTD can provide information about the water vapour in atmosphere. Its assimilation into the analysis used to initialize a model can then improve the weather forecast, giving the right amount of moisture and reducing the model spinup. In the last year, an high density GPS network has been created on the Basilicata region (south of Italy by the Italian Space Agency in the framework of a national project named MAGIC2. MAGIC2 is the Italian follow on of the EC project MAGIC has. Daily operational data assimilation experiments are performed since December 2003. The results show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD improves the forecast especially during the transition from winter to spring even if a no very high model resolution (9km is used.

  18. Observation impact studies with the Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, E. D.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Drevillon, M.; Turpin, V.; Benkiran, M.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean produces and delivers in real-time ocean analysis and forecasts on a daily basis. The quality of the analysis highly relies on the availability and quality of the assimilated observations.Tools are developed to estimate the impact of the present network and to help designing the future evolutions of the observing systems in the context of near real time production of ocean analysis and forecasts. OSE and OSSE are the main approaches used in this context. They allow the assessment of the efficiency of a given data set to constrain the ocean model circulation through the data assimilation process. Illustrations will mainly focus on the present and future evolution of the Argo observation network and altimetry constellation, including the potential impact of future SWOT data. Our systems show clear sensitivities to observation array changes, mainly depending on the specified observation error and regional dynamic. Impact on non observed variables can be important and are important to evaluate. Dedicated diagnostics has to be define to measure the improvements bring by each data set. Alternative approaches to OSE and OSSE are also explored: approximate computation of DFS will be presented and discussed. Limitations of each approach will be discussed in the context of real time operation.

  19. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

    2012-10-02

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

  20. Forecasting surface water flooding hazard and impact in real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.

    2016-04-01

    Across the world, there is increasing demand for more robust and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF). Within a UK context, the government Pitt Review into the Summer 2007 floods provided recommendations and impetus to improve the understanding of SWF risk for both off-line design and real-time forecasting and warning. Ongoing development and trial of an end-to-end real-time SWF system is being progressed through the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) with delivery to the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) providing coverage over England & Wales. The NHP is a unique forum that aims to deliver coordinated assessments, research and advice on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK. Within the NHP, a real-time Hazard Impact Model (HIM) framework has been developed that includes SWF as one of three hazards chosen for initial trialling. The trial SWF HIM system uses dynamic gridded surface-runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model to estimate the SWF hazard. National datasets on population, infrastructure, property and transport are available to assess impact severity for a given rarity of SWF hazard. Whilst the SWF hazard footprint is calculated in real-time using 1, 3 and 6 hour accumulations of G2G surface runoff on a 1 km grid, it has been possible to associate these with the effective rainfall design profiles (at 250m resolution) used as input to a detailed flood inundation model (JFlow+) run offline to produce hazard information resolved to 2m resolution. This information is contained in the updated Flood Map for Surface Water (uFMfSW) held by the Environment Agency. The national impact datasets can then be used with the uFMfSW SWF hazard dataset to assess impacts at this scale and severity levels of potential impact assigned at 1km and for aggregated county areas in real-time. The impact component is being led by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) within the NHP

  1. The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential

  2. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  3. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  4. [Physical activity: positive impact on brain plasticity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achiron, Anat; Kalron, Alon

    2008-03-01

    The central nervous system has a unique capability of plasticity that enables a single neuron or a group of neurons to undergo functional and constructional changes that are important to learning processes and for compensation of brain damage. The current review aims to summarize recent data related to the effects of physical activity on brain plasticity. In the last decade it was reported that physical activity can affect and manipulate neuronal connections, synaptic activity and adaptation to new neuronal environment following brain injury. One of the most significant neurotrophic factors that is critical for synaptic re-organization and is influenced by physical activity is brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). The frequency of physical activity and the intensity of exercises are of importance to brain remodeling, support neuronal survival and positively affect rehabilitation therapy. Physical activity should be employed as a tool to improve neural function in healthy subjects and in patients suffering from neurological damage.

  5. Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Rotach

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP. Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events.

    The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies.

    In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.

  6. Predicting the local impacts of energy development: a critical guide to forecasting methods and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, D.; O' Hare, M.

    1977-05-01

    Models forecasting second-order impacts from energy development vary in their methodology, output, assumptions, and quality. As a rough dichotomy, they either simulate community development over time or combine various submodels providing community snapshots at selected points in time. Using one or more methods - input/output models, gravity models, econometric models, cohort-survival models, or coefficient models - they estimate energy-development-stimulated employment, population, public and private service needs, and government revenues and expenditures at some future time (ranging from annual to average year predictions) and for different governmental jurisdictions (municipal, county, state, etc.). Underlying assumptions often conflict, reflecting their different sources - historical data, comparative data, surveys, and judgments about future conditions. Model quality, measured by special features, tests, exportability and usefulness to policy-makers, reveals careful and thorough work in some cases and hurried operations with insufficient in-depth analysis in others.

  7. Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

  8. Parameter estimation using the genetic algorithm and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, optimal parameter estimations are performed for both physical and computational parameters in a mesoscale meteorological model, and their impacts on the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF are assessed for a heavy rainfall case occurred at the Korean Peninsula in June 2005. Experiments are carried out using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model and the genetic algorithm (GA for two parameters: the reduction rate of the convective available potential energy in the Kain-Fritsch (KF scheme for cumulus parameterization, and the Asselin filter parameter for numerical stability. The fitness function is defined based on a QPF skill score. It turns out that each optimized parameter significantly improves the QPF skill. Such improvement is maximized when the two optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Our results indicate that optimizations of computational parameters as well as physical parameters and their adequate applications are essential in improving model performance.

  9. Geomagnetic Storm Impact On GPS Code Positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uray, Fırat; Varlık, Abdullah; Kalaycı, İbrahim; Öǧütcü, Sermet

    2017-04-01

    This paper deals with the geomagnetic storm impact on GPS code processing with using GIPSY/OASIS research software. 12 IGS stations in mid-latitude were chosen to conduct the experiment. These IGS stations were classified as non-cross correlation receiver reporting P1 and P2 (NONCC-P1P2), non-cross correlation receiver reporting C1 and P2 (NONCC-C1P2) and cross-correlation (CC-C1P2) receiver. In order to keep the code processing consistency between the classified receivers, only P2 code observations from the GPS satellites were processed. Four extreme geomagnetic storms October 2003, day of the year (DOY), 29, 30 Halloween Storm, November 2003, DOY 20, November 2004, DOY 08 and four geomagnetic quiet days in 2005 (DOY 92, 98, 99, 100) were chosen for this study. 24-hour rinex data of the IGS stations were processed epoch-by-epoch basis. In this way, receiver clock and Earth Centered Earth Fixed (ECEF) Cartesian Coordinates were solved for a per-epoch basis for each day. IGS combined broadcast ephemeris file (brdc) were used to partly compensate the ionospheric effect on the P2 code observations. There is no tropospheric model was used for the processing. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Application Technology Satellites (JPL ATS) computed coordinates of the stations were taken as true coordinates. The differences of the computed ECEF coordinates and assumed true coordinates were resolved to topocentric coordinates (north, east, up). Root mean square (RMS) errors for each component were calculated for each day. The results show that two-dimensional and vertical accuracy decreases significantly during the geomagnetic storm days comparing with the geomagnetic quiet days. It is observed that vertical accuracy is much more affected than the horizontal accuracy by geomagnetic storm. Up to 50 meters error in vertical component has been observed in geomagnetic storm day. It is also observed that performance of Klobuchar ionospheric correction parameters during geomagnetic storm

  10. Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

    2017-12-01

    Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

  11. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  12. The impact of the internet on community pharmacy practice: a comparison of a Delphi panel's forecast with emerging trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Erin R; Tipton, David J; Desselle, Shane P

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the impact of Internet pharmacy commerce on various stakeholders. A panel of experts assembled from a list of academicians in the social and administrative pharmaceutical sciences participated in a three-iteration Delphi procedure. Feedback from the aggregate responses of the panel was used to construct questionnaires employed in subsequent iterations of the Delphi. The panel converged to form a consensus upon a variety of issues. They forecasted the attainment of a 10-15% share in the market of prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals through on-line purchases, the formation of strategic alliances among stakeholders in the drug distribution process, a shift in marketing strategies by brick-and-mortar stores, an increase in the prevalence of niching among pharmacy service providers and a subsequent growth in the implementation of cognitive services throughout the industry. With few exceptions, the forecast produced by the Delphi panel appears to be coming to fruition.

  13. Impact of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) data assimilation on semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, H. J.; Kang, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Since Jul. 2015, KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) has been performing the semi real-time forecast system to assess the performance of their forecast system as a NWP model. KPOP (KIAPS Protocol for Observation Processing) is a part of KIAPS data assimilation system and has been performing well in KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. In this study, due to the fact that KPOP would be able to treat the scatterometer wind data, we analyze the effect of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) on KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. O-B global distribution and statistics of scatterometer wind give use two information which are the difference between background field and observation is not too large and KPOP processed the scatterometer wind data well. The changes of analysis increment because of O-B global distribution appear remarkably at the bottom of atmospheric field. It also shows that scatterometer wind data cover wide ocean where data would be able to short. Performance of scatterometer wind data can be checked through the vertical error reduction against IFS between background and analysis field and vertical statistics of O-A. By these analysis result, we can notice that scatterometer wind data will influence the positive effect on lower level performance of semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS. After, long-term result based on effect of scatterometer wind data will be analyzed.

  14. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

    2012-12-01

    Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

  15. Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

  16. Impact of Forecast and Model Error Correlations In 4dvar Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupanski, M.; Zupanski, D.; Vukicevic, T.; Greenwald, T.; Eis, K.; Vonder Haar, T.

    A weak-constraint 4DVAR data assimilation system has been developed at Cooper- ative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University. It is based on the NCEP's ETA 4DVAR system, and it is fully parallel (MPI coding). The CIRA's 4DVAR system is aimed for satellite data assimilation research, with cur- rent focus on assimilation of cloudy radiances and microwave satellite measurements. Most important improvement over the previous 4DVAR system is a degree of gener- ality introduced into the new algorithm, namely for applications with different NWP models (e.g., RAMS, WRF, ETA, etc.), and for the choice of control variable. In cur- rent applications, the non-hydrostatic RAMS model and its adjoint are used, including all microphysical processess. The control variable includes potential temperature, ve- locity potential and stream function, vertical velocity, and seven mixing ratios with respect to all water phases. Since the statistics of the microphysical components of the control variable is not well known, a special attention will be paid to the impact of the forecast and model (prior) error correlations on the 4DVAR analysis. In particular, the sensitivity of the analysis with respect to decorrelation length will be examined. The prior error covariances are modelled using the compactly-supported, space-limited correlations developed at NASA DAO.

  17. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Zheng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The power generated by wind generators is usually associated with uncertainties, due to the intermittency of wind speed and other weather variables. This creates a big challenge for transmission system operators (TSOs and distribution system operators (DSOs in terms of connecting, controlling and managing power networks with high-penetration wind energy. Hence, in these power networks, accurate wind power forecasts are essential for their reliable and efficient operation. They support TSOs and DSOs in enhancing the control and management of the power network. In this paper, a novel two-stage hybrid approach based on the combination of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed for day-ahead wind power forecasting. The approach is composed of two stages. The first stage utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP meteorological information to predict wind speed at the exact site of the wind farm. The second stage maps actual wind speed vs. power characteristics recorded by SCADA. Then, the wind speed forecast in the first stage for the future day is fed to the second stage to predict the future day’s wind power. Comparative selection of input-data parameter sets for the forecasting model and impact analysis of input-data dependency on forecasting accuracy have also been studied. The proposed approach achieves significant forecasting accuracy improvement compared with three other artificial intelligence-based forecasting approaches and a benchmark model using the smart persistence method.

  18. Assimilation of extrapolated radar reflectivity into a NWP model and its impact on a precipitation forecast at high resolution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 100, 2-3 (2011), s. 201-212 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk ME09033 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * Nowcasting * Assimilation of radar reflectivity * Numerical weather prediction * Convective storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.911, year: 2011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809510002462

  19. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  20. Evaluating the impact of improvements to the FLAMBE smoke source model on forecasts of aerosol distribution from NAAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

    2006-12-01

    As more forecast models aim to include aerosol and chemical species, there is a need for source functions for biomass burning emissions that are accurate, robust, and operable in real-time. NAAPS is a global aerosol forecast model running every six hours and forecasting distributions of biomass burning, industrial sulfate, dust, and sea salt aerosols. This model is run operationally by the U.S. Navy as an aid to planning. The smoke emissions used as input to the model are calculated from the data collected by the FLAMBE system, driven by near-real-time active fire data from GOES WF_ABBA and MODIS Rapid Response. The smoke source function uses land cover data to predict properties of detected fires based on literature data from experimental burns. This scheme is very sensitive to the choice of land cover data sets. In areas of rapid land cover change, the use of static land cover data can produce artifactual changes in emissions unrelated to real changes in fire patterns. In South America, this change may be as large as 40% over five years. We demonstrate the impact of a modified land cover scheme on FLAMBE emissions and NAAPS forecasts, including a fire size algorithm developed using MODIS burned area data. We also describe the effects of corrections to emissions estimates for cloud and satellite coverage. We outline areas where existing data sources are incomplete and improvements are required to achieve accurate modeling of biomass burning emissions in real time.

  1. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods

  2. Thinking back about a positive event: The impact of processing style on positive affect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine eNelis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The manner in which individuals recall an autobiographical positive life event has affective consequences. Two studies addressed the processing styles during positive memory recall in a non-clinical sample. Participants retrieved a positive memory which was self-generated (Study 1, n = 70 or experimenter-chosen (i.e., academic achievement, Study 2, n = 159, followed by the induction of one of three processing styles (between-subjects: In Study 1, a ‘concrete/imagery’ vs. ‘abstract/verbal’ processing style was compared. In Study 2, a ‘concrete/imagery’, ‘abstract/verbal’, and ‘comparative/verbal’ processing style were compared. The processing of a personal memory in a concrete/imagery-based way led to a larger increase in positive affect compared to abstract/verbal processing in Study 1, as well as compared to comparative/verbal thinking in Study 2. Results of Study 2 further suggest that it is making unfavourable verbal comparisons that may hinder affective benefits to positive memories (rather then general abstract/verbal processing per se. The comparative/verbal thinking style failed to lead to improvements in positive affect, and with increasing levels of depressive symptoms it had a more negative impact on change in positive affect. We found no evidence that participant’s tendency to have dampening thoughts in response to positive affect in daily life contributed to the affective impact of positive memory recall. The results support the potential for current trainings in boosting positive memories and mental imagery, and underline the search for parameters that determine at times deleterious outcomes of abstract/verbal memory processing in the face of positive information.

  3. Allied health research positions: a qualitative evaluation of their impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenke, Rachel J; Ward, Elizabeth C; Hickman, Ingrid; Hulcombe, Julie; Phillips, Rachel; Mickan, Sharon

    2017-02-06

    Research positions embedded within healthcare settings have been identified as an enabler to allied health professional (AHP) research capacity; however, there is currently limited research formally evaluating their impact. In 2008, a Health Practitioner industrial agreement funded a research capacity building initiative within Queensland Health, Australia, which included 15 new allied health research positions. The present project used a qualitative and realist approach to explore the impact of these research positions, as well as the mechanisms which facilitated or hindered their success within their respective organisations. Forty-four AHP employees from six governmental health services in Queensland, Australia, participated in the study. Individual interviews were undertaken, with individuals in research positions (n = 8) and their reporting line managers (n = 8). Four stakeholder focus groups were also conducted with clinicians, team leaders and professional heads who had engaged with the research positions. Nine key outcomes of the research positions were identified across individual, team/service and organisational/community levels. These outcomes included clinician skill development, increased research activity, clinical and service changes, increased research outputs and collaborations, enhanced research and workplace culture, improved profile of allied health, development of research infrastructure, and professional development of individuals in the research positions. Different mechanisms that influenced these outcomes were identified. These mechanisms were grouped by those related to the (1) research position itself, (2) organisational factors and (3) implementation factors. The present findings highlight the potential value of the research positions for individuals, teams and clinical services across different governmental healthcare services, and demonstrate the impact of the roles on building the internal and external profile of allied health

  4. Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

    2017-04-01

    High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

  5. Impacts of GNSS position offsets on global frame stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Jake; Ray, Jim

    2014-05-01

    Positional offsets appear in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series for a variety of reasons. Antenna or radome changes are the most common cause for these discontinuities. Many others are from earthquakes, receiver changes, and different anthropogenic modifications at or near the stations. Some jumps appear for unknown or undocumented reasons. The accurate determination of station velocities, and therefore geophysical parameters and terrestrial reference frames, requires that positional offsets be correctly found and compensated. Williams (2003) found that undetected offsets introduce a random walk error component in individual station time series. The topic of detecting positional offsets has received considerable attention in recent years (e.g., Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment; DOGEx), and most research groups using GNSS have adopted a combination of manual and automated methods for finding them. The removal of a positional offset is usually handled by estimating the average station position on both sides of the discontinuity, assuming a constant, continuous velocity. This is sufficient in the absence of time-correlated errors. However, GNSS time series contain systematic and power-law errors (white to random walk noise). In this paper, we aim to evaluate the impact to both individual station results and the overall stability of the global reference frame from adding increasing numbers of positional discontinuities. We use the International GNSS Service (IGS) weekly SINEX files, and iteratively insert positional offset parameters at the midpoint of each data segment. Each iteration includes a restacking of the modified SINEX files using the CATREF software from Institut National de l'Information Géographique et Forestière (IGN) to estimate: regularized station positions, secular velocities, Earth orientation parameters, Helmert frame alignment parameters, and the empirical shifts across all positional discontinuities. A comparison of the

  6. The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Kozlowski, Danielle; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

  7. Regional PV power estimation and forecast to mitigate the impact of high photovoltaic penetration on electric grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierro, Marco; De Felice, Matteo; Maggioni, Enrico; Moser, David; Perotto, Alessandro; Spada, Francesco; Cornaro, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The growing photovoltaic generation results in a stochastic variability of the electric demand that could compromise the stability of the grid and increase the amount of energy reserve and the energy imbalance cost. On regional scale, solar power estimation and forecast is becoming essential for Distribution System Operators, Transmission System Operator, energy traders, and aggregators of generation. Indeed the estimation of regional PV power can be used for PV power supervision and real time control of residual load. Mid-term PV power forecast can be employed for transmission scheduling to reduce energy imbalance and related cost of penalties, residual load tracking, trading optimization, secondary energy reserve assessment. In this context, a new upscaling method was developed and used for estimation and mid-term forecast of the photovoltaic distributed generation in a small area in the north of Italy under the control of a local DSO. The method was based on spatial clustering of the PV fleet and neural networks models that input satellite or numerical weather prediction data (centered on cluster centroids) to estimate or predict the regional solar generation. It requires a low computational effort and very few input information should be provided by users. The power estimation model achieved a RMSE of 3% of installed capacity. Intra-day forecast (from 1 to 4 hours) obtained a RMSE of 5% - 7% while the one and two days forecast achieve to a RMSE of 7% and 7.5%. A model to estimate the forecast error and the prediction intervals was also developed. The photovoltaic production in the considered region provided the 6.9% of the electric consumption in 2015. Since the PV penetration is very similar to the one observed at national level (7.9%), this is a good case study to analyse the impact of PV generation on the electric grid and the effects of PV power forecast on transmission scheduling and on secondary reserve estimation. It appears that, already with 7% of PV

  8. Impact of a Diagnostic Pressure Equation Constraint on Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorm Forecasts Initialized Using 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Ge

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A diagnostic pressure equation constraint has been incorporated into a storm-scale three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. This diagnostic pressure equation constraint (DPEC is aimed to improve dynamic consistency among different model variables so as to produce better data assimilation results and improve the subsequent forecasts. Ge et al. (2012 described the development of DPEC and testing of it with idealized experiments. DPEC was also applied to a real supercell case, but only radial velocity was assimilated. In this paper, DPEC is further applied to two real tornadic supercell thunderstorm cases, where both radial velocity and radar reflectivity data are assimilated. The impact of DPEC on radar data assimilation is examined mainly based on the storm forecasts. It is found that the experiments using DPEC generally predict higher low-level vertical vorticity than the experiments not using DPEC near the time of observed tornadoes. Therefore, it is concluded that the use of DPEC improves the forecast of mesocyclone rotation within supercell thunderstorms. The experiments using different weighting coefficients generate similar results. This suggests that DPEC is not very sensitive to the weighting coefficients.

  9. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  10. Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenwald, Sten; Green, James; Taylor, William

    2005-01-01

    We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme

  11. Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

  12. The impact of underwater glider observations in the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goni, G. J.; Domingues, R. M.; Kim, H. S.; Domingues, R. M.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Bringas, F.; Morell, J. M.; Pomales, L.; Baltes, R.

    2017-12-01

    The tropical Atlantic basin is one of seven global regions where tropical cyclones (TC) are commonly observed to originate and intensify from June to November. On average, approximately 12 TCs travel through the region every year, frequently affecting coastal, and highly populated areas. In an average year, 2 to 3 of them are categorized as intense hurricanes. Given the appropriate atmospheric conditions, TC intensification has been linked to ocean conditions, such as increased ocean heat content and enhanced salinity stratification near the surface. While errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced during the last years, errors in intensity forecasts remain mostly unchanged. Several studies have indicated that the use of in situ observations has the potential to improve the representation of the ocean to correctly initialize coupled hurricane intensity forecast models. However, a sustained in situ ocean observing system in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea dedicated to measuring subsurface thermal and salinity fields in support of TC intensity studies and forecasts has yet to be implemented. Autonomous technologies offer new and cost-effective opportunities to accomplish this objective. We highlight here a partnership effort that utilize underwater gliders to better understand air-sea processes during high wind events, and are particularly geared towards improving hurricane intensity forecasts. Results are presented for Hurricane Gonzalo (2014), where glider observations obtained in the tropical Atlantic: Helped to provide an accurate description of the upper ocean conditions, that included the presence of a low salinity barrier layer; Allowed a detailed analysis of the upper ocean response to hurricane force winds of Gonzalo; Improved the initialization of the ocean in a coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical model; and together with observations from other ocean observing platforms, substantially reduced the error in intensity forecast

  13. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  14. An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

    2018-04-13

    Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

  15. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  16. Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2015-01-01

    Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.

  17. Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting is necessary to save lives and reduce damages. Reducing damages is important to save livelihoods and to reduce the recovery time. Flood alerts should contain expected time of the event, location and extent of the event. A flood alert is not only one message but part of a rehearsed flow of information using multiple canals. First people have to accept the fact that there might be a threat and what the threat is about. People need a reference to understand the situation and be aware of possible measures they can take to assure their own safety and reduce damages. Information to the general public has to be consistent with the information used by emergency services and has to be very clear about consequences and context of possible measures (as shelter in place or preventive evacuation. Emergency services should monitor how the public is responding to adapt their communication en operation during a crisis. Flood warnings and emergency services are often coordinated by different government organisations. This is an extra handicap for having consistent information out on time for people to use. In an information based society, where everyone has twitter, email and a camera, public organisations may have to trust the public more and send out the correct information as it comes in. In the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat, the National Water Authority and the National Public Works Department, is responsible for or involved in forecasting in case of floods, policy studies on flood risk, policy studies on maintenance, assessment and design of flood defences, elaborating rules and regulations for flood defences, advice on crisis management to the national government and for maintaining the main infrastructure in the Netherlands (high ways and water ways. The Water Management Center in the Netherlands (WMCN has developed a number of models to provide flood forecasts. WMCN is run for and by all managers of flood defences and is hosted by

  18. Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

    2015-01-01

    In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

  19. Impact of data assimilation on ocean current forecasts in the Angola Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, Luke; Toumi, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    The ocean current predictability in the data limited Angola Basin was investigated using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Six experiments were undertaken comprising a baseline case of the assimilation of salinity/temperature profiles and satellite sea surface temperature, with the subsequent addition of altimetry, OSCAR (satellite-derived sea surface currents), drifters, altimetry and drifters combined, and OSCAR and drifters combined. The addition of drifters significantly improves Lagrangian predictability in comparison to the baseline case as well as the addition of either altimetry or OSCAR. OSCAR assimilation only improves Lagrangian predictability as much as altimetry assimilation. On average the assimilation of either altimetry or OSCAR with drifter velocities does not significantly improve Lagrangian predictability compared to the drifter assimilation alone, even degrading predictability in some cases. When the forecast current speed is large, it is more likely that the combination improves trajectory forecasts. Conversely, when the currents are weaker, it is more likely that the combination degrades the trajectory forecast.

  20. Tourism's impacts on natural resources: A positive case from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjun; Zhang, Qian; Liu, Chunyan; Xue, Qifu

    2006-10-01

    Tourism development may result in negative impacts on natural resources owing to overuse and mismanagement. However, tourism may also play positive roles in natural resource conservation, which has rarely been verified in practice, although some researchers have demonstrated this in theory. In this article, taking the Jiuzhaigou Biosphere Reserve as a case study area, we conducted an analysis for the environmental impacts from tourism development based on social survey and interpretation of remote sensing images. The results show that the natural environment was not degraded and some indicators are even improving because all the residents have participated in tourism and given up farming and hunting. It is concluded that it is possible to use tourism as a way to balance natural resource conservation and economic development under the preconditions of making effective policies to encourage and help local people participate in tourism business and to benefit from it.

  1. Tourism's Impacts on Natural Resources: A Positive Case from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjun; Zhang, Qian; Liu, Chunyan; Xue, Qifu

    2006-10-01

    Tourism development may result in negative impacts on natural resources owing to overuse and mismanagement. However, tourism may also play positive roles in natural resource conservation, which has rarely been verified in practice, although some researchers have demonstrated this in theory. In this article, taking the Jiuzhaigou Biosphere Reserve as a case study area, we conducted an analysis for the environmental impacts from tourism development based on social survey and interpretation of remote sensing images. The results show that the natural environment was not degraded and some indicators are even improving because all the residents have participated in tourism and given up farming and hunting. It is concluded that it is possible to use tourism as a way to balance natural resource conservation and economic development under the preconditions of making effective policies to encourage and help local people participate in tourism business and to benefit from it.

  2. Impact of emotion on consciousness: positive stimuli enhance conscious reportability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Rømer Thomsen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Emotion and reward have been proposed to be closely linked to conscious experience, but empirical data are lacking. The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC plays a central role in the hedonic dimension of conscious experience; thus potentially a key region in interactions between emotion and consciousness. Here we tested the impact of emotion on conscious experience, and directly investigated the role of the ACC. We used a masked paradigm that measures conscious reportability in terms of subjective confidence and objective accuracy in identifying the briefly presented stimulus in a forced-choice test. By manipulating the emotional valence (positive, neutral, negative and the presentation time (16 ms, 32 ms, 80 ms we measured the impact of these variables on conscious and subliminal (i.e. below threshold processing. First, we tested normal participants using face and word stimuli. Results showed that participants were more confident and accurate when consciously seeing happy versus sad/neutral faces and words. When stimuli were presented subliminally, we found no effect of emotion. To investigate the neural basis of this impact of emotion, we recorded local field potentials (LFPs directly in the ACC in a chronic pain patient. Behavioural findings were replicated: the patient was more confident and accurate when (consciously seeing happy versus sad faces, while no effect was seen in subliminal trials. Mirroring behavioural findings, we found significant differences in the LFPs after around 500 ms (lasting 30 ms in conscious trials between happy and sad faces, while no effect was found in subliminal trials. We thus demonstrate a striking impact of emotion on conscious experience, with positive emotional stimuli enhancing conscious reportability. In line with previous studies, the data indicate a key role of the ACC, but goes beyond earlier work by providing the first direct evidence of interaction between emotion and conscious experience in the human

  3. The Impacts of Satellite Remotely Sensed Winds and Total Precipitable Vapour in WRF Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impact assimilating the scatterometer near-surface wind observations and total precipitable water from the SSMI, into WRF on genesis and track forecasting of four tropical cyclones (TCs. These TCs are selected to be representative of different intensity categories and basins. Impact is via a series of data denial experiments that systematically exclude the remote sensed information. Compared with the control case, in which only the final analysis atmospheric variables are used to initialize and provide the lateral boundary conditions, the data assimilation runs performed consistently better, but with very different skill levels for the different TCs. Eliassen-Palm flux analyses are employed. It is confirmed that if a polar orbital satellite footprint passes over the TC’s critical genesis region, the forecast will profit most from assimilating the remotely sensed information. If the critical genesis region lies within an interorbital gap then, regardless of how strong the TC later becomes (e.g., Katrina 2005, the improvement from assimilating near-surface winds and total precipitable water in the model prediction is severely limited. This underpins the need for a synergy of data from different scatterometers/radiometers. Other approaches are suggested to improve the accuracy in the prediction of TC genesis and tracks.

  4. The impact of weather and ocean forecasting on hydrocarbon production and pollution management in the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Pulsipher, Allan G.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past 2 years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. The occurrences of extreme weather regularly force operators to shut-down production, cease drilling and construction activities, and evacuate personnel. Loop currents and eddies can also impact offshore operations and delay installation and drilling activities and reduce the effectiveness of oil spill response strategies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how weather and ocean forecasting impact production activities and pollution management in the GOM. Physical outcome and decision models in support of production and development activities and oil spill response management are presented, and the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated ocean observation network in the region are summarized. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for energy development and production activities and oil spill response management

  5. Impact of streamflow data assimilation and length of the verification period on the quality of short-term ensemble hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randrianasolo, A.; Thirel, G.; Ramos, M. H.; Martin, E.

    2014-11-01

    Data assimilation has gained wide recognition in hydrologic forecasting due mainly to its capacity to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. In this study, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the impact of discharge data assimilation on the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modeling conceptualizations of catchment response. The sensitivity of the performance metrics to the length of the verification period is also investigated. The hydrological modeling approaches are: the coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU, a distributed model with a data assimilation procedure that uses streamflow measurements to assess the initial state of soil water content that optimizes discharge simulations, and the lumped soil moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP, which assimilates directly the last observed discharge to update the state of the routing store. The models are driven by the weather ensemble prediction system PEARP of Météo-France, which is based on the global spectral ARPEGE model zoomed over France. It runs 11 perturbed members for a forecast range of 60 h. Forecast and observed data are available for 86 catchments over a 17-month period (March 2005-July 2006) for both models and for 82 catchments over a 52-month period (April 2005-July 2009) for the GRP model. The first dataset is used to investigate the impact of streamflow data assimilation on forecast quality, while the second is used to evaluate the impact of the length of the verification period on the assessment of forecast quality. Forecasts are compared to daily observed discharges and scores are computed for lead times 24 h and 48 h. Results indicate an overall good performance of both hydrological models forced by the PEARP ensemble predictions when the models are run with their data assimilation procedures. In general, when data assimilation is performed, the quality of the forecasts increases: median differences between

  6. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  7. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  8. Impact of Three-Phase Relative Permeability and Hysteresis Models on Forecasts of Storage Associated With CO2-EOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Wei; McPherson, Brian; Pan, Feng; Dai, Zhenxue; Moodie, Nathan; Xiao, Ting

    2018-02-01

    Geological CO2 sequestration in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) includes complex multiphase flow processes compared to CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Two of the most important factors affecting multiphase flow in CO2-EOR are three-phase relative permeability and associated hysteresis, both of which are difficult to measure and are usually represented by numerical interpolation models. The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of (1) the relative impacts of different three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO2 trapping mechanisms, and (2) uncertainty associated with these two factors. Four different three-phase relative permeability models and three hysteresis models were applied to simulations of an active CO2-EOR site, the SACROC unit located in western Texas. To eliminate possible bias of deterministic parameters, we utilized a sequential Gaussian simulation technique to generate 50 realizations to describe heterogeneity of porosity and permeability, based on data obtained from well logs and seismic survey. Simulation results of forecasted CO2 storage suggested that (1) the choice of three-phase relative permeability model and hysteresis model led to noticeable impacts on forecasted CO2 sequestration capacity; (2) impacts of three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO2 trapping are small during the CO2-EOR injection period, and increase during the post-EOR CO2 injection period; (3) the specific choice of hysteresis model is more important relative to the choice of three-phase relative permeability model; and (4) using the recommended three-phase WAG (Water-Alternating-Gas) hysteresis model may increase the impact of three-phase relative permeability models and uncertainty due to heterogeneity.

  9. Continuing Education Workshops in Bioinformatics Positively Impact Research and Careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazas, Michelle D; Ouellette, B F Francis

    2016-06-01

    Bioinformatics.ca has been hosting continuing education programs in introductory and advanced bioinformatics topics in Canada since 1999 and has trained more than 2,000 participants to date. These workshops have been adapted over the years to keep pace with advances in both science and technology as well as the changing landscape in available learning modalities and the bioinformatics training needs of our audience. Post-workshop surveys have been a mandatory component of each workshop and are used to ensure appropriate adjustments are made to workshops to maximize learning. However, neither bioinformatics.ca nor others offering similar training programs have explored the long-term impact of bioinformatics continuing education training. Bioinformatics.ca recently initiated a look back on the impact its workshops have had on the career trajectories, research outcomes, publications, and collaborations of its participants. Using an anonymous online survey, bioinformatics.ca analyzed responses from those surveyed and discovered its workshops have had a positive impact on collaborations, research, publications, and career progression.

  10. Instrumented Impact Testing: Influence of Machine Variables and Specimen Position

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucon, E.; McCowan, C. N.; Santoyo, R. A.

    2008-09-15

    An investigation has been conducted on the influence of impact machine variables and specimen positioning on characteristic forces and absorbed energies from instrumented Charpy tests. Brittle and ductile fracture behavior has been investigated by testing NIST reference samples of low, high and super-high energy levels. Test machine variables included tightness of foundation, anvil and striker bolts, and the position of the center of percussion with respect to the center of strike. For specimen positioning, we tested samples which had been moved away or sideways with respect to the anvils. In order to assess the influence of the various factors, we compared mean values in the reference (unaltered) and altered conditions; for machine variables, t-test analyses were also performed in order to evaluate the statistical significance of the observed differences. Our results indicate that the only circumstance which resulted in variations larger than 5 percent for both brittle and ductile specimens is when the sample is not in contact with the anvils. These findings should be taken into account in future revisions of instrumented Charpy test standards.

  11. Instrumented Impact Testing: Influence of Machine Variables and Specimen Position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucon, E.; McCowan, C. N.; Santoyo, R. A.

    2008-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted on the influence of impact machine variables and specimen positioning on characteristic forces and absorbed energies from instrumented Charpy tests. Brittle and ductile fracture behavior has been investigated by testing NIST reference samples of low, high and super-high energy levels. Test machine variables included tightness of foundation, anvil and striker bolts, and the position of the center of percussion with respect to the center of strike. For specimen positioning, we tested samples which had been moved away or sideways with respect to the anvils. In order to assess the influence of the various factors, we compared mean values in the reference (unaltered) and altered conditions; for machine variables, t-test analyses were also performed in order to evaluate the statistical significance of the observed differences. Our results indicate that the only circumstance which resulted in variations larger than 5 percent for both brittle and ductile specimens is when the sample is not in contact with the anvils. These findings should be taken into account in future revisions of instrumented Charpy test standards.

  12. Impact of multi-resolution analysis of artificial intelligence models inputs on multi-step ahead river flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2013-12-01

    Discrete wavelet transform was applied to decomposed ANN and ANFIS inputs.Novel approach of WNF with subtractive clustering applied for flow forecasting.Forecasting was performed in 1-5 step ahead, using multi-variate inputs.Forecasting accuracy of peak values and longer lead-time significantly improved.

  13. Study of the impact of satellite data in the analysis and forecasting of a SACZ episode using G3DVar

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Azevedo, H. B.; Goncalves, L.

    2013-05-01

    Earth observations from satellite have great importance and impact, in particular for operational weather and climate forecast centers in the Southern Hemisphere such as the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC from its Portuguese acronym), a division of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE from its Portuguese acronym). It is well known that such data is critical, in particular over Southern Hemisphere oceans where there is a lack of other information sources e.g. radiosonde and aircraft, where satellite data provides excellent spatial coverage with relatively frequent sampling in addition to sweeping continents, deserts, woodlands and other remote areas. Hence, studies like OSEs (Observing Systems Experiments) where we are able to test whether observational input data in an assimilation system degrades or improves analyzes and forecasts, are of great value. Furthermore OSEs applied to satellite observations are expected to show large impact due to its large amount of information compared to conventional observations. OSE also provides useful information on the efficiency of the system and this information can be used to improve the use of one or another observation system in the data assimilation process and to determine its relative importance compared to other observation systems. This is a technique where one or more observation systems are retained in the data assimilation process in order to assess the impact of the inclusion or exclusion of a particular observation on the quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP). One of the difficulties within the NWP nevertheless, is to predict the correct intensity of severe weather systems, which has great impact on the population. Over South America, an important weather system is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which every year during summer yelds large amounts of rainfall over a band oriented northwest-southeast, extending from the Amazon to the Brazilian

  14. A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

  15. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  16. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  17. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  18. Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiferl, Luke D.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    , the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

  19. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.

  20. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  1. Forecasting age-related macular degeneration through the year 2050: the potential impact of new treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, David B; Wittenborn, John S; Zhang, Xinzhi; Honeycutt, Amanda A; Lesesne, Sarah B; Saaddine, Jinan

    2009-04-01

    To forecast age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its consequences in the United States through the year 2050 with different treatment scenarios. We simulated cases of early AMD, choroidal neovascularization (CNV), geographic atrophy (GA), and AMD-attributable visual impairment and blindness with 5 universal treatment scenarios: (1) no treatment; (2) focal laser and photodynamic therapy (PDT) for CNV; (3) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence with focal laser/PDT for CNV; (4) no vitamin prophylaxis followed by focal laser treatment for extra and juxtafoveal CNV and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment; and (5) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence followed by CNV treatment, as in scenario 4. Cases of early AMD increased from 9.1 million in 2010 to 17.8 million in 2050 across all scenarios. In non-vitamin-receiving scenarios, cases of CNV and GA increased from 1.7 million in 2010 to 3.8 million in 2050 (25% lower in vitamin-receiving scenarios). Cases of visual impairment and blindness increased from 620 000 in 2010 to 1.6 million in 2050 when given no treatment and were 2.4%, 22.0%, 16.9%, and 34.5% lower in scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Prevalence of AMD will increase substantially by 2050, but the use of new therapies can mitigate its effects.

  2. Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

    2018-02-01

    To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

  3. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  4. Impact of meteorological data resolution on the forecasted ozone concentrations during the ESCOMPTE IOP2a and IOP2b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menut, Laurent; Coll, Isabelle; Cautenet, Sylvie

    2005-03-01

    During the summer 2001, several photo-oxidant pollution episodes were documented around Marseilles-Fos-Berre in the South of France within the framework of the ESCOMPTE campaign. The site is composed of large cities (Marseilles, Aix, and Toulon), significant factories (Fos-Berre), a dense road network, and extensive rural area. Both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions are thus significative. Located close to the Mediterranean Sea and framed by the Pyrenees and the Alps Mountains, pollutant concentrations are under the influence of strong emissions as well as a complex meteorology. During the whole summer 2001, the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was used to forecast pollutant concentrations. The ECMWF forecast meteorological fields were used as forcing, with a raw spatial and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h, respectively. It was observed that even if the synoptic dynamic processes were correctly described, the resolution was not always able to detail small-scale dynamics (sea breezes and orographical winds). To estimate the impact of meteorological forcing on the modeled concentration accuracy, an intercomparison exercise has thus been carried out on the same episode but with two sets of meteorological data: ECMWF data (with horizontal and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h) and data from the mesoscale model RAMS (3 km and 1 h). The two sets of meteorological data are compared and discussed in terms of raw differences as a function of time and location, and in terms of induced discrepancies between the modeled and observed ozone concentration fields. It was shown that even if the RAMS model provides a better description of land-sea breezes and nocturnal boundary layer processes, the simulated ozone time series are satisfactory with the two meteorological forcings. In the context of ozone forecast, the scores are better with ECMWF. This is attributed to the diffusive aspect of these data that will more easily catch localized peaks, while a small error in

  5. RTE results 2002: positive net income (+112 million euros), in keeping with forecasts, at the end of a year placed under the sign of quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    The results of RTE, the French Transmission System Operator, confirm the company's sound financial position at the end of a year placed under the sign of quality. RTE announces a net income after taxes for 2002 that is in keeping with its forecasts: +112 million euros (versus 250 million euros in 2001) for 3,657 million euros in sales revenue. 616 million euros were devoted to investments for the development and replacement of the company's transmission and interconnection networks. RTE also continued the reduction of its debt by 99 million euros. The year 2001 had experienced a cold spell at year-end, bringing with it higher-than-average revenue (+80 million euros). 2002, which was exceptionally mild at the end of the year, saw revenue fall off by 40 million euros compared with a normal year. In all, the climatic impact goes to explain a drop of 120 million euros in 2002. This drop is partially offset by additional revenue since the adoption on 1/11/02 of the network access tariff (about 30 million euros). This tariff is now substituted for the transitional price scale which was unfavourable to RTE. Operating expenses rose from 3,089 million euros to 3,316 million euros. The most significant increases are to be attributed in particular to: - the contribution of 68 million euros to the 'ETSO Fund', ETSO being the Association of European Transmission System Operators which, since 1/03/02, has ensured the compensation for network utilisation costs related to international transfers, - the gaining in momentum, with more than 80 million euros, of the network mechanical security enhancement programme decided in the wake of the storms of 1999, which aims at adapting RTE infrastructures to the new technical requirements for wind resistance. More than 720 km of power lines were erected or replaced while 12 electrical substations were connected to the RTE network in 2002. Among these projects, mention should be made of the following: the commissioning of the first French

  6. Forecast of environmental impact in the evaluation of Cerro Solo nuclear mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallucci, A.R.

    1993-01-01

    This work presents a project for the study of the environmental impact of the Cerro Solo uranium mine. The survey is to be carried out performing different kinds of studies: mineralization, tectonics, hydrogeology, preliminary studies on different exploitation methods, costs, reserves estimation, economical studies and preliminary studies on possible environmental impacts. (author). 24 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  7. Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

  8. Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Rishee K.; Smith, Kevin M.; Culligan, Patricia J.; Taylor, John E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a building energy forecasting model using support vector regression. • Model is applied to data from a multi-family residential building in New York City. • We extend sensor based energy forecasting to multi-family residential buildings. • We examine the impact temporal and spatial granularity has on model accuracy. • Optimal granularity occurs at the by floor in hourly temporal intervals. - Abstract: Buildings are the dominant source of energy consumption and environmental emissions in urban areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast and characterize building energy consumption is vital to implementing urban energy management and efficiency initiatives required to curb emissions. Advances in smart metering technology have enabled researchers to develop “sensor based” approaches to forecast building energy consumption that necessitate less input data than traditional methods. Sensor-based forecasting utilizes machine learning techniques to infer the complex relationships between consumption and influencing variables (e.g., weather, time of day, previous consumption). While sensor-based forecasting has been studied extensively for commercial buildings, there is a paucity of research applying this data-driven approach to the multi-family residential sector. In this paper, we build a sensor-based forecasting model using Support Vector Regression (SVR), a commonly used machine learning technique, and apply it to an empirical data-set from a multi-family residential building in New York City. We expand our study to examine the impact of temporal (i.e., daily, hourly, 10 min intervals) and spatial (i.e., whole building, by floor, by unit) granularity have on the predictive power of our single-step model. Results indicate that sensor based forecasting models can be extended to multi-family residential buildings and that the optimal monitoring granularity occurs at the by floor level in hourly intervals. In addition to implications for

  9. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  10. Impact of selected troposphere models on Precise Point Positioning convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalita, Jakub; Rzepecka, Zofia

    2016-04-01

    The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) absolute method is currently intensively investigated in order to reach fast convergence time. Among various sources that influence the convergence of the PPP, the tropospheric delay is one of the most important. Numerous models of tropospheric delay are developed and applied to PPP processing. However, with rare exceptions, the quality of those models does not allow fixing the zenith path delay tropospheric parameter, leaving difference between nominal and final value to the estimation process. Here we present comparison of several PPP result sets, each of which based on different troposphere model. The respective nominal values are adopted from models: VMF1, GPT2w, MOPS and ZERO-WET. The PPP solution admitted as reference is based on the final troposphere product from the International GNSS Service (IGS). The VMF1 mapping function was used for all processing variants in order to provide capability to compare impact of applied nominal values. The worst case initiates zenith wet delay with zero value (ZERO-WET). Impact from all possible models for tropospheric nominal values should fit inside both IGS and ZERO-WET border variants. The analysis is based on data from seven IGS stations located in mid-latitude European region from year 2014. For the purpose of this study several days with the most active troposphere were selected for each of the station. All the PPP solutions were determined using gLAB open-source software, with the Kalman filter implemented independently by the authors of this work. The processing was performed on 1 hour slices of observation data. In addition to the analysis of the output processing files, the presented study contains detailed analysis of the tropospheric conditions for the selected data. The overall results show that for the height component the VMF1 model outperforms GPT2w and MOPS by 35-40% and ZERO-WET variant by 150%. In most of the cases all solutions converge to the same values during first

  11. A new Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer channel selection and assessment of its impact on Met Office NWP forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Young-Chan; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Kim, Yoonjae; Joo, Sangwon; Bell, William; Saunders, Roger

    2017-11-01

    A new set of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) channels was re-selected from 314 EUMETSAT channels. In selecting channels, we calculated the impact of the individually added channel on the improvement in the analysis outputs from a one-dimensional variational analysis (1D-Var) for the Unified Model (UM) data assimilation system at the Met Office, using the channel score index (CSI) as a figure of merit. Then, 200 channels were selected in order by counting each individual channel's CSI contribution. Compared with the operationally used 183 channels for the UM at the Met Office, the new set shares 149 channels, while the other 51 channels are new. Also examined is the selection from the entropy reduction method with the same 1D-Var approach. Results suggest that channel selection can be made in a more objective fashion using the proposed CSI method. This is because the most important channels can be selected across the whole IASI observation spectrum. In the experimental trial runs using the UM global assimilation system, the new channels had an overall neutral impact in terms of improvement in forecasts, as compared with results from the operational channels. However, upper-tropospheric moist biases shown in the control run with operational channels were significantly reduced in the experimental trial with the newly selected channels. The reduction of moist biases was mainly due to the additional water vapor channels, which are sensitive to the upper-tropospheric water vapor.

  12. A Time-Varying Potential-Based Demand Response Method for Mitigating the Impacts of Wind Power Forecasting Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Ning

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty of wind power results in wind power forecasting errors (WPFE which lead to difficulties in formulating dispatching strategies to maintain the power balance. Demand response (DR is a promising tool to balance power by alleviating the impact of WPFE. This paper offers a control method of combining DR and automatic generation control (AGC units to smooth the system’s imbalance, considering the real-time DR potential (DRP and security constraints. A schematic diagram is proposed from the perspective of a dispatching center that manages smart appliances including air conditioner (AC, water heater (WH, electric vehicle (EV loads, and AGC units to maximize the wind accommodation. The presented model schedules the AC, WH, and EV loads without compromising the consumers’ comfort preferences. Meanwhile, the ramp constraint of generators and power flow transmission constraint are considered to guarantee the safety and stability of the power system. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, simulations are performed in an IEEE 24-node system. The results indicate that considerable benefits can be realized by coordinating the DR and AGC units to mitigate the WPFE impacts.

  13. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  14. Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, R. D.; Walker, G. K.

    2015-01-01

    The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

  15. The issue of the fourth nuclear power plant and its impact on 3-E problems in Taiwan - empirical evidence from the energy forecasting (EnFore) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bor, Y.J.; Chou, F.-Y.

    2003-01-01

    Taiwan has placed considerable emphasis on economic, energy and environmental (3-E) problems in recent decades. Following President Chen's inauguration, one particular issue of concern has been the current dispute over the fourth nuclear power plant (FNPP) in northern Taiwan. This dispute has had a serious impact on Taiwan's economy, including its energy structure and general policy towards CO 2 emission controls. It is estimated, for example, that the loss to Taiwan's capital market as a result of the FNPP dispute, reached NT$7 trillion (about US$219 billion) by the end of 2000. If Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) were to replace the nuclear power plant capacity with liquified natural gas generators, average utility prices would go up by around 4.6% over the next 10 years. The alternative would be for low-cost coal-fired power plants to assume the major position in future power generation; however, this could cause significant damage to Taiwan's CO 2 emission control policy. This paper uses an integrated computerized system model of energy forecasting to simulate the complex interrelationship between the various issues. Empirical results reveal that there are no perfect solutions available; thus, this is an important learning process for the government in terms of administration, as well as for other academic studies

  16. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  17. The impact of different sea-surface temperature prediction scenarios on Southern African seasonal climate forecast skill

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Retro-active forecasts produced at a 1-month lead-time by the ECHAM4.5 AGCM are statistically downscaled to South African district rainfall totals for the austral mid-summer season of December to February. The AGCM is forced with SST forecasts...

  18. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  19. Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

    2018-07-15

    Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Teaching Positive Networking for Life-Long Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addams, Lon; Woodbury, Denise; Addams, Lindsey

    2010-01-01

    As college communication instructors, we could further assist students by teaching the value of positive networking. This article provides (1) a foundation for positive networking and (2) several successful ways in which students can begin building a strong long-lasting network of professional relationships during the semester…and for their entire…

  1. Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand

    OpenAIRE

    El Zarwi, Feras

    2017-01-01

    The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...

  2. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Moncoulon, David; Pons, Frédéric

    2017-11-01

    Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall-runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes - typically discharges or return periods - at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies). The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall-runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  3. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Bihan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall–runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes – typically discharges or return periods – at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies. The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall–runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  4. Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030. The potential impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030. (author)

  5. Precipitation observations for operational flood forecasting in Scotland: Data availability, limitations and the impact of observational uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David

    2017-04-01

    The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to

  6. When idols look into the future: fair treatment modulates the affective forecasting error in talent show candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feys, Marjolein; Anseel, Frederik

    2015-03-01

    People's affective forecasts are often inaccurate because they tend to overestimate how they will feel after an event. As life decisions are often based on affective forecasts, it is crucial to find ways to manage forecasting errors. We examined the impact of a fair treatment on forecasting errors in candidates in a Belgian reality TV talent show. We found that perceptions of fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers (a negative audition decision) but decreased it for winners (a positive audition decision). For winners, this effect was even more pronounced when candidates were highly invested in their self-view as a future pop idol whereas for losers, the effect was more pronounced when importance was low. The results in this study point to a potential paradox between maximizing happiness and decreasing forecasting errors. A fair treatment increased the forecasting error for losers, but actually made them happier. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  7. The power of Nutrition Impact and Positive Practice (NIPP) Circles

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    family members we identify existing, positive behaviours of mothers or caretakers in ..... foods is practice to reinforce that idea. In order to help the volunteer ... exercises are only covered in theory, whereas the women's groups need to practice ...

  8. Impact evaluation of positive deviance hearth in Migori County, Kenya

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    based nutrition program for children who are at risk for protein-energy malnutrition in a low resource community. The intervention uses the 'Positive Deviance' approach to identify those behaviors practiced by the mothers or caretakers of ...

  9. The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

  10. Inclusion of biomass burning in WRF-Chem: impact of wildfires on weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Grell

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the vertical distribution of the emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5 and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN had a strong impact on clouds and cloud microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 h of the integration. During the afternoon, storms were of convective nature and appeared significantly stronger, probably as a result of both the interaction of aerosols with radiation (through an increase in CAPE as well as the interaction with cloud microphysics.

  11. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  12. Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on fractionally integrated processes. The approach allows for flexible dependence patterns and automatically guarantees positive definiteness of the forecast. We provide an empirical appl...

  13. Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

    2018-03-01

    Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

  14. Student Attitudes towards Enterprise Education in Poland: A Positive Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Paul; Jones, Amanda; Packham, Gary; Miller, Christopher

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to appraise the delivery of an enterprise education course to a cohort of Polish students evaluating its impact in encouraging entrepreneurial activity. The Polish economy continues its expansion with adoption of free market economies post communism. To encourage this growth, entrepreneurial activity must be encouraged…

  15. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  16. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  17. Forecasting the impact of an 1859-caliber superstorm on geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellites: Transponder resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenwald, Sten F.; Green, James L.

    2007-06-01

    We calculate the economic impact on the existing geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellite population of an 1859-caliber superstorm event were it to occur between 2008 and 2018 during the next solar activity cycle. From a detailed model for transponder capacity and leasing, we have investigated the total revenue loss over the entire solar cycle, as a function of superstorm onset year and intensity. Our Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 possible superstorms, of varying intensity and onset year, suggest that the minimum revenue loss could be of the order of 30 billion. The losses would be larger than this if more that 20 satellites are disabled, if future launch rates do not keep up with the expected rate of retirements, or if the number of spare transponders falls below ˜30%. Consequently, revenue losses can be significantly reduced below 30 billion if the current satellite population undergoes net growth beyond 300 units during Solar Cycle 24 and a larger margin of unused transponders is maintained.

  18. 10578 IMPACT EVALUATION OF POSITIVE DEVIANCE HEARTH IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Charles Anino

    nutrition program for children who are at risk for protein-energy malnutrition in a low ... method was used to collect data and perform statistical analyses. ... Studies have identified Positive Deviance (PD) Hearth approach as the most .... Germany). ... The questionnaire was tested for internal reliability using Cronbach.

  19. Positive and negative impacts of agricultural production of liquid biofuels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijnders, L.; Hester, R.E.; Harrison, R.M.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural production of liquid biofuels can have positive effects. It can decrease dependence on fossil fuels and increase farmers’ incomes. Agricultural production of mixed perennial biofuel crops may increase pollinator and avian richness. Most types of agricultural crop-based liquid biofuel

  20. Determination of global positioning system (GPS) receiver clock errors: impact on positioning accuracy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Ta-Kang; Hwang, Cheinway; Xu, Guochang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Lee, Chien-Chih

    2009-01-01

    Enhancing the positioning precision is the primary pursuit of global positioning system (GPS) users. To achieve this goal, most studies have focused on the relationship between GPS receiver clock errors and GPS positioning precision. This study utilizes undifferentiated phase data to calculate GPS clock errors and to compare with the frequency of cesium clock directly, to verify estimated clock errors by the method used in this paper. The frequency stability calculated from this paper (the indirect method) and measured from the National Standard Time and Frequency Laboratory (NSTFL) of Taiwan (the direct method) match to 1.5 × 10 −12 (the value from this study was smaller than that from NSTFL), suggesting that the proposed technique has reached a certain level of quality. The built-in quartz clocks in the GPS receivers yield relative frequency offsets that are 3–4 orders higher than those of rubidium clocks. The frequency stability of the quartz clocks is on average two orders worse than that of the rubidium clock. Using the rubidium clock instead of the quartz clock, the horizontal and vertical positioning accuracies were improved by 26–78% (0.6–3.6 mm) and 20–34% (1.3–3.0 mm), respectively, for a short baseline. These improvements are 7–25% (0.3–1.7 mm) and 11% (1.7 mm) for a long baseline. Our experiments show that the frequency stability of the clock, rather than relative frequency offset, is the governing factor of positioning accuracy

  1. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  2. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  3. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  4. Big Data impacts on stochastic Forecast Models: Evidence from FX time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Dietz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of the Big Data paradigm new tasks for prediction models appeared. In addition to the volume problem of such data sets nonlinearity becomes important, as the more detailed data sets contain also more comprehensive information, e.g. about non regular seasonal or cyclical movements as well as jumps in time series. This essay compares two nonlinear methods for predicting a high frequency time series, the USD/Euro exchange rate. The first method investigated is Autoregressive Neural Network Processes (ARNN, a neural network based nonlinear extension of classical autoregressive process models from time series analysis (see Dietz 2011. Its advantage is its simple but scalable time series process model architecture, which is able to include all kinds of nonlinearities based on the universal approximation theorem of Hornik, Stinchcombe and White 1989 and the extensions of Hornik 1993. However, restrictions related to the numeric estimation procedures limit the flexibility of the model. The alternative is a Support Vector Machine Model (SVM, Vapnik 1995. The two methods compared have different approaches of error minimization (Empirical error minimization at the ARNN vs. structural error minimization at the SVM. Our new finding is, that time series data classified as “Big Data” need new methods for prediction. Estimation and prediction was performed using the statistical programming language R. Besides prediction results we will also discuss the impact of Big Data on data preparation and model validation steps. Normal 0 21 false false false DE X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normale Tabelle"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}

  5. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

  6. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  7. Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunda, T.; Bazuin, J. T.; Nay, J.; Yeung, K. L.

    2017-03-01

    Access to seasonal climate forecasts can benefit farmers by allowing them to make more informed decisions about their farming practices. However, it is unclear whether farmers realize these benefits when crop choices available to farmers have different and variable costs and returns; multiple countries have programs that incentivize production of certain crops while other crops are subject to market fluctuations. We hypothesize that the benefits of forecasts on farmer livelihoods will be moderated by the combined impact of differing crop economics and changing climate. Drawing upon methods and insights from both physical and social sciences, we develop a model of farmer decision-making to evaluate this hypothesis. The model dynamics are explored using empirical data from Sri Lanka; primary sources include survey and interview information as well as game-based experiments conducted with farmers in the field. Our simulations show that a farmer using seasonal forecasts has more diversified crop selections, which drive increases in average agricultural income. Increases in income are particularly notable under a drier climate scenario, when a farmer using seasonal forecasts is more likely to plant onions, a crop with higher possible returns. Our results indicate that, when water resources are scarce (i.e. drier climate scenario), farmer incomes could become stratified, potentially compounding existing disparities in farmers’ financial and technical abilities to use forecasts to inform their crop selections. This analysis highlights that while programs that promote production of certain crops may ensure food security in the short-term, the long-term implications of these dynamics need careful evaluation.

  8. Irrigation in the Lower Durance: positive impacts of the agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacroix, M.; Blavoux, B.

    1995-01-01

    The water of river Durance is used to produce hydroelectricity and as stretch of water for tourism and since the thirteenth century for irrigation. The inherited situation is a well extended network of gravitation irrigation canals. This system is spendthrift of water, the water supplies are roughly 5 times the farming needs. The impact of this irrigation on the alluvial aquifer of the Lower Durance is the generalisation of the highest level of the water table in summer on the plain though the water budget has an average deficit of 550 mm. In addition, the nitrate concentration is maintained to an average of 17 mg/l in groundwater and 5 mg/l in streams by dilution. In fact, the irrigation dictates an average input of water with 25.4 mg/l of NO 3- . The natural isotopic tracing (oxygen 18) allows to say that 50 to 75% of the water of the alluvial aquifer come from irrigation. To improve the knowledge about the efficiency of irrigation, a mathematical groundwater model has been created. As a result, 53% of the water is lost while reaching the agricultural parcels, 19% is infiltrated during watering at the parcel and only 28% are used to satisfy the needs of plants. The realisation of this model has allowed to simulate the impact on groundwater of changes in irrigation practices which would lead to reduce the consummation of water. In the case of Lower Durance, the reduction of irrigation losses would have a strong impact on the quantity and quality of water in the alluvial aquifer. (J.S.). 10 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Positioned for impact: Haiti's first baccalaureate nursing program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Jeanne M

    2011-01-01

    Haiti's first baccalaureate nursing programn the Faculty of Nursing Science of the Episcopal University of Haiti (FSIL), educates professional nurses as clinicians, leaders, and change agents, preparing graduates to a global standard set by the World Health Organization. FSIL was founded on Christian principles, expressing a vision of nursing as a ministry of Jesus Christ. Near the epicenter of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the remarkable response of FSIL students and faculty saved lives, gave hope to a community in need, and demonstrated the impact of well-educated nurses on the health of a nation.

  10. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  11. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  12. Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

    2018-06-01

    The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

  13. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  14. A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Ross N.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

  15. Long-term forecast 2010; Laangsiktsprognos 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents the energy forecast to the year 2030, and two different sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that the report's findings should not be considered a proper forecast of the future energy use, but as an impact assessment of existing policy instruments, given different circumstances such as economic growth and fuel prices

  16. Create positive contraceptive images for strongest impact in single lesson.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-05-01

    Health educators attempting to deliver contraceptive information to adolescents in the classroom must seek ways to make a major impact in a very short period of time. A Planned Parenthood professional from New Jersey has developed a single-shot birth control lesson that, rather than presenting the pros and cons of various contraceptive methods, has teenagers identify themselves as at high, low, or no risk of pregnancy. Students estimate the number of classmates who are in each category and then assess whether they personally are at risk of an unintended pregnancy. In general, teens overestimate the number of classmates who are sexually active. This approach seems to make the ensuing discussion of contraceptive methods more meaningful. This discussion presents the condom and foam, the sponge, and visiting a family planning clinic. After this 40 minute presentation, fewer adolescents report being afraid of contraceptive side effects; they also have more knowledge about the efficacy and availability of different methods. A lesson in preparation is centered around a videotape entitled "Swept Away is Not Okay." It shows a teen couple going to a family planning clinic before they ever have intercourse. This strategy of encouraging adolescents to seek contraception before sexual involvement begins is considered more realistic than pressuring teens to abstain from sex. School officials and teachers have been receptive to this educational approach, viewing it as presenting important public health information.

  17. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  18. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  19. Exercise in obese pregnant women: positive impacts and current perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sui Z

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Zhixian Sui,1 Jodie M Dodd1,21The University of Adelaide, Robinson Institute, Discipline of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Women’s and Children’s Hospital, 2Department of Perinatal Medicine, Women’s and Babies Division, Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaAbstract: Overweight and obesity have significant implications during pregnancy and childbirth. The objective of this review was to provide a comprehensive overview of the effect of physical activity on pregnancy outcomes, the change of physical activity during pregnancy, and women’s perception of being physically active during pregnancy, with a particular focus on women who are overweight or obese. Many studies have investigated the beneficial effect of exercise during pregnancy, including reduced risk of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, and operative birth, in addition to improved cardiovascular function, overall fitness, psychological well-being, and mood stability. Benefits for the infant include reduced risks of prematurity and improved fetal growth, although there is more limited information about longer-term health benefits for both women and infants. The existing literature examining physical activity patterns during pregnancy has generally focused on women of all body mass index categories, consistently indicating a reduction in activity over the course of pregnancy. However, the available literature evaluating physical activity during pregnancy among women who are overweight or obese is more limited and contradictory. A number of studies identified barriers preventing women from being active during pregnancy, including pregnancy symptoms, lack of time, access to child care, and concerns about their safety and that of their unborn baby. Conversely, significant enablers included positive psychological feelings, family influence, and receiving advice from health professionals. Very few studies have provided insights about perceptions of being active during

  20. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  1. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  2. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  3. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  4. Impacts of a book reading club intervention on enhancing parents' positive thinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Zuway-R; Lin, Huann-shyang

    2012-03-01

    This study investigated the effects of participating in a book reading club on improving parents' positive interactions with children and positive thinking. A total of 85 parent volunteers were randomized into the experimental or comparison group. The Parent Questionnaire was used to measure positive thinking and interaction with children. Additionally interview results were used to triangulate and elucidate the findings. The findings revealed a positive impact on parents' positive thinking and interaction with children and that these were significant predictors of parents' positive thinking. Implications and recommendations are presented.

  5. The impact of shifting vantage perspective when recalling and imagining positive events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vella, Nicholas C; Moulds, Michelle L

    2014-01-01

    The vantage perspective from which memories are recalled influences their emotional impact. To date, however, the impact of vantage perspective on the emotions elicited by positive memories and images of positive future events has been minimally explored. We experimentally manipulated the vantage perspective from which a sample of undergraduate students (n =80) recalled positive memories and imagined positive future events. Participants who naturally recalled their positive memories from a field perspective reported decreased vividness and positive affect (i.e., happiness, optimism, hopefulness) when they were instructed to shift to an observer perspective. The same pattern of emotionality ratings was observed when participants' vantage perspective of imagined future events was manipulated. In contrast, shifting participants from observer to field perspective recall of positive memories did not result in changes in ratings of memory-related emotion, although we found an unexpected trend towards reduced vividness. For positive future events, shifting from an observer to a field perspective resulted in decreased vividness but did not lead to any changes in positive emotion. Our findings confirm that vantage perspective plays a key role in determining the emotional impact of positive memories, and demonstrate that this relationship is also evident for images of future positive events.

  6. Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

    2018-05-01

    This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

  7. Forecasting the impact of global changes on the water resources of a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Campéon, C.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2012-04-01

    This study aims to simulate the complex interrelationships between climate forcing, human pressure and dynamics of groundwater and surface water of the upper Elqui catchment (5 660 km2) in the Chilean Andes. The water resources of this mountainous, semi-arid catchment has been undergoing a growing pressure because of high climate variability and of the economic mutations of various sectors (agriculture, tourism), which have impacted water availability of the area. Due to the agriculture-based development in the region, water scarcity is thus a matter of great concern for this basin. Hydrological simulations were performed with a conceptual model that takes into account a shallow reservoir supplied by precipitation and feeding evapotranspiration, surface/sub-surface runoff and infiltration, and (ii) a deep reservoir fed by infiltration and generating the baseflow. A third reservoir, in which fluxes are controlled by temperature, has been introduced to account for the snowmelt regime of the catchment. A 30-year period (1979-2008) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability due to alternating ENSO and LNSO events. Then water uses (dam functioning, agricultural and domestic withdrawals) were integrated into the model. The model was calibrated and validated with streamflow data on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit criteria. Prospective climatic and anthropogenic scenarios were finally elaborated and forced into the model in order to propose midterm (2050 horizon) simulations. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. Depending on the modelling complexity, NSE coefficients are about 0.82-0.90 over the calibration period (1979-1990) and 0.78-0.84 over the validation period (1991-2008). The volume error between observation and simulation is lower than 15% over the whole period studied. The dynamics of both the water level in the deep conceptual reservoir and the water table

  8. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  9. Impact of knee support and shape of tabletop on rectum and prostate position

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbakkers, Roel J. H. M.; Duppen, Joop C.; Betgen, Anja; Lotz, Heidi Th; Remeijer, Peter; Fitton, Isabelle; Nowak, Peter J. C. M.; van Herk, Marcel; Rasch, Coen R. N.

    2004-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of different tabletops with or without a knee support on the position of the rectum, prostate, and bulb of the penis; and to evaluate the effect of these patient-positioning devices on treatment planning. METHODS AND MATERIALS: For 10 male volunteers, five MRI scans

  10. A Contingency Approach to Communication Skill Importance: The Impact of Occupation, Direction, and Position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Salvo, Vincent S.; Larsen, Janet K.

    1987-01-01

    Examines the impact of direction and occupation on the importance of communication skills for entry-level positions in finance, management, engineering, and law. Results substantiate a three-dimensional model (based on direction, occupation, and position) for the examination and application of communication skill importance in organization. (JD)

  11. Value of Forecaster in the Loop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    forecast system IFR instrument flight rules IMC instrument meteorological conditions LAMP Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program METOC...obtaining valuable experience. Additional factors have impacted the Navy weather forecast process. There has been a the realignment of the meteorology...forecasts that are assessed, it may be a relatively small number that have direct impact on the decision-making process. Whether the value is minimal or

  12. Contribution to forecast of environmental impact, in the long run, for fuel cells of low and average temperature using the Delphi methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Maria Alice Morato; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos

    2007-01-01

    Assessing future energy systems is of major importance for providing information on potential environmental awareness of some life cycle stages of innovative technologies, for determining competitive advantages compared to conventional technologies and for developing scenarios of future. Today, intense activity of R and D in cells is verified in fuel cells, practiced in centers of research, university, and laboratories of great companies, what it seems to indicate the use in wide scale of these generating right-handers of energy, before long. The work has a main objective, in the long run, to make a forecast of the environmental impact of low and average temperature fuel cells, analyzing all the stages of their useful life and final disposal of the materials that constitute them, using the Delphi methodology. The results of the environmental impact evaluation of the main materials used in the stacks are presented, considering their manufacture, operation and final disposal after their useful life ends. (author)

  13. Frequency of head-impact-related outcomes by position in NCAA division I collegiate football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Christine M; Kiernan, Patrick T; Kroshus, Emily; Daneshvar, Daniel H; Montenigro, Philip H; McKee, Ann C; Stern, Robert A

    2015-03-01

    Concussions and subconcussive impacts sustained in American football have been associated with short- and long-term neurological impairment, but differences in head impact outcomes across playing positions are not well understood. The American Medical Society for Sports Medicine has identified playing position as a key risk factor for concussion in football and one for which additional research is needed. This study examined variation in head impact outcomes across primary football playing positions in a group of 730 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Series athletes, using a self-report questionnaire. Although there were no significant differences between position groups in the number of diagnosed concussions during the 2012 football season, there were significant differences between groups in undiagnosed concussions (p=0.008) and "dings" (pfootball season, with offensive linemen reporting significantly more symptoms compared to most other groups. There were also positional differences in frequency of returning to play while symptomatic (p<0.001) and frequency of participating in full-contact practice (p<0.001). Offensive linemen reported having returned to play while experiencing symptoms more frequently and participating in more full-contact practices than other groups. These findings suggest that offensive linemen, a position group that experiences frequent, but low-magnitude, head impacts, develop more postimpact symptoms than other playing positions, but do not report these symptoms as a concussion.

  14. A technique for position sensing and improved momentum evaluation of microparticle impacts in space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonnell, J. A. M.; Abellanas, C.

    1972-01-01

    The design of a three element piezoelectric microparticle impact sensing diaphragm is described which is sensitive to the detection of momentum propagated by the bending wave. The design achieves a sensitivity of .03 microdyn/sec and optimizes the detection of the direct-path pulse from impact relative to secondary reflections and interference from discontinuities. Measurement of the relative arrival times and the maximum amplitudes of the outputs from the three piezoelectric sensors leads to the determination of the impact position and the normally resolved impact momentum exchange. Coincidence of the signals and a partial redundancy of data leads to a very high noise discrimination.

  15. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

    2015-03-01

    Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

  16. Practical Results of Forecasting for the Natural Gas Market

    OpenAIRE

    Potocnik, Primoz; Govekar, Edvard

    2010-01-01

    Natural gas consumption forecasting is required to balance the supply and consumption of natural gas. Companies and natural gas distributors are motivated to forecast their consumption by the economic incentive model that dictates the cash flow rules corresponding to the forecasting accuracy. The rules are quite challenging but enable the company to gain positive cash flow by forecasting accurately their short-term natural gas consumption. In this chapter, some practical forecasting results f...

  17. Surface Pressure Dependencies in the GEOS-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Meemong; Weidner, Richard

    2016-01-01

    In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

  18. What determines positive, neutral, and negative impacts of Solidago canadensis invasion on native plant species richness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Li-Jia; Yu, Hong-Wei; He, Wei-Ming

    2015-11-17

    Whether plant invasions pose a great threat to native plant diversity is still hotly debated due to conflicting findings. More importantly, we know little about the mechanisms of invasion impacts on native plant richness. We examined how Solidago canadensis invasion influenced native plants using data from 291 pairs of invaded and uninvaded plots covering an entire invaded range, and quantified the relative contributions of climate, recipient communities, and S. canadensis to invasion impacts. There were three types of invasion consequences for native plant species richness (i.e., positive, neutral, and negative impacts). Overall, the relative contributions of recipient communities, S. canadensis and climate to invasion impacts were 71.39%, 21.46% and 7.15%, respectively; furthermore, the roles of recipient communities, S. canadensis and climate were largely ascribed to plant diversity, density and cover, and precipitation. In terms of direct effects, invasion impacts were negatively linked to temperature and native plant communities, and positively to precipitation and soil microbes. Soil microbes were crucial in the network of indirect effects on invasion impacts. These findings suggest that the characteristics of recipient communities are the most important determinants of invasion impacts and that invasion impacts may be a continuum across an entire invaded range.

  19. Control of secondary electrons from ion beam impact using a positive potential electrode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T. P., E-mail: tpcrowley@xanthotechnologies.com; Demers, D. R.; Fimognari, P. J. [Xantho Technologies, LLC, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Secondary electrons emitted when an ion beam impacts a detector can amplify the ion beam signal, but also introduce errors if electrons from one detector propagate to another. A potassium ion beam and a detector comprised of ten impact wires, four split-plates, and a pair of biased electrodes were used to demonstrate that a low-voltage, positive electrode can be used to maintain the beneficial amplification effect while greatly reducing the error introduced from the electrons traveling between detector elements.

  20. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  1. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  2. Impacts of Satellite Orbit and Clock on Real-Time GPS Point and Relative Positioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Junbo; Wang, Gaojing; Han, Xianquan; Guo, Jiming

    2017-06-12

    Satellite orbit and clock corrections are always treated as known quantities in GPS positioning models. Therefore, any error in the satellite orbit and clock products will probably cause significant consequences for GPS positioning, especially for real-time applications. Currently three types of satellite products have been made available for real-time positioning, including the broadcast ephemeris, the International GNSS Service (IGS) predicted ultra-rapid product, and the real-time product. In this study, these three predicted/real-time satellite orbit and clock products are first evaluated with respect to the post-mission IGS final product, which demonstrates cm to m level orbit accuracies and sub-ns to ns level clock accuracies. Impacts of real-time satellite orbit and clock products on GPS point and relative positioning are then investigated using the P3 and GAMIT software packages, respectively. Numerical results show that the real-time satellite clock corrections affect the point positioning more significantly than the orbit corrections. On the contrary, only the real-time orbit corrections impact the relative positioning. Compared with the positioning solution using the IGS final product with the nominal orbit accuracy of ~2.5 cm, the real-time broadcast ephemeris with ~2 m orbit accuracy provided <2 cm relative positioning error for baselines no longer than 216 km. As for the baselines ranging from 574 to 2982 km, the cm-dm level positioning error was identified for the relative positioning solution using the broadcast ephemeris. The real-time product could result in <5 mm relative positioning accuracy for baselines within 2982 km, slightly better than the predicted ultra-rapid product.

  3. Impacts of Satellite Orbit and Clock on Real-Time GPS Point and Relative Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junbo Shi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Satellite orbit and clock corrections are always treated as known quantities in GPS positioning models. Therefore, any error in the satellite orbit and clock products will probably cause significant consequences for GPS positioning, especially for real-time applications. Currently three types of satellite products have been made available for real-time positioning, including the broadcast ephemeris, the International GNSS Service (IGS predicted ultra-rapid product, and the real-time product. In this study, these three predicted/real-time satellite orbit and clock products are first evaluated with respect to the post-mission IGS final product, which demonstrates cm to m level orbit accuracies and sub-ns to ns level clock accuracies. Impacts of real-time satellite orbit and clock products on GPS point and relative positioning are then investigated using the P3 and GAMIT software packages, respectively. Numerical results show that the real-time satellite clock corrections affect the point positioning more significantly than the orbit corrections. On the contrary, only the real-time orbit corrections impact the relative positioning. Compared with the positioning solution using the IGS final product with the nominal orbit accuracy of ~2.5 cm, the real-time broadcast ephemeris with ~2 m orbit accuracy provided <2 cm relative positioning error for baselines no longer than 216 km. As for the baselines ranging from 574 to 2982 km, the cm–dm level positioning error was identified for the relative positioning solution using the broadcast ephemeris. The real-time product could result in <5 mm relative positioning accuracy for baselines within 2982 km, slightly better than the predicted ultra-rapid product.

  4. Characterization and management trends of negative and positive impacts of tourism in show caves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heros Augusto Santos Lobo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Caves are one of the most fragile environments on Earth ’s surface, in function of physical, atmospheric and biological specificities. The natural characteristics associated with cultural aspects of local people are the reasons to tourist potential of caves. However, the tourist use of caves can generate negative impacts on the environment. This consequence happens when inappropriate procedures of planning and management of tourism are used. Negative impacts are described in this review, as also indications of management techniques to avoid, decrease or eliminate the negative consequences of tourism in caves. Positive impacts are also presented, in order to achieve a sustainable tourism in show caves. The conclusion argues that the negative impacts should not be considered as impediments to tourism in caves. It is important to know these impacts and use it as a key to get previous answers which allow to raise the sustainability of show caves.

  5. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  13. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. The Impact of a Positive Environment and Shared Leadership to Empower Collegial School Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretz, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop an empowered collegial school culture to systemically improve the function of the academic institution through the impact of a positive environment and shared leadership. When compared to the other middle schools in the district, Eagle Middle School had the lowest math achievement growth index during the…

  4. The Impact of Budget Cutbacks on Music Teaching Positions and District Funding in Three Midwestern States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrack, Frederick William; Payne, Phillip; Bazan, Dale E.; Hellman, Daniel S.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the existence and impact of budgetary cutbacks to music teaching positions and district funding in three Midwestern states, namely Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. The results revealed cuts to staffing and district funding of music programs without a reduction in student enrollments in 2011-2012…

  5. Impact of socioeconomic position and distance on mental health care utilization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Packness, Aake; Waldorff, Frans Boch; Christensen, René dePont

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the impact of socioeconomic position (SEP) and distance to provider on outpatient mental health care utilization among incident users of antidepressants. Method: A nationwide register-based cohort study of 50,374 person-years. Results: Persons in low SEP were more likely...

  6. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  7. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  8. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  9. Business Organizations’ Positive Socio-Economic Impact on Society - a Step Beyond CSR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela POPA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors argue the necessity of taking a step beyond CSR and tackling the issue of measuring the impact businesses have on society, in general. Even if CSR points out the idea that organizations have responsibilities regarding the well-being of the entire society, it has certain limitations listed in this article. Furthermore, the authors briefly present the socio-economic impact of business organizations including (1 some basic concepts, (2 the most relevant areas/fields for measuring the impact, and (3 the main advantages regarding the development and implementation of effective impact measurement practices. The general purpose of the empirical study refers to the identification of perceptions related to the Romanian business organizations’ socio-economic impact. In this regard, we set the following main objectives: (1 identifying the extent to which Romanian organizations undertake a process of measuring, assessing and managing their impacts on society, (2 analyzing clients, managers and owners’ perceptions regarding the positive impact of seven Romanian organizations’ activities, and (3 identifying the perceptional differences between clients and managers plus owners. The empirical results show that in the managers’ plus owners’ opinions the areas in which the organization’s activities always or almost always have a positive impact are: collecting and paying taxes, keeping a strict control over the costs, and fulfilling government regulations plus obeying laws. The highest differences in clients’ and managers’ plus owners’ perceptions refer to creating jobs and improving people’s personal security and the general well-being of society.

  10. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  11. Impact of Surface Type, Wheelchair Weight, and Axle Position on Wheelchair Propulsion by Novice Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Rachel E.; Nash, Mark S.; Collinger, Jennifer L.; Koontz, Alicia M.; Boninger, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To examine the impact of surface type, wheelchair weight, and rear axle position on older adult propulsion biomechanics. Design Crossover trial. Setting Biomechanics laboratory. Participants Convenience sample of 53 ambulatory older adults with minimal wheelchair experience (65−87y); men = 20, women = 33. Intervention Participants propelled 4 different wheelchair configurations over 4 surfaces; tile, low carpet, high carpet, and an 8% grade ramp (surface, chair order randomized). Chair configurations included: (1) unweighted chair with an anterior axle position, (2) 9.05kg weighted chair with an anterior axle position, (3) unweighted chair with a posterior axle position (Δ0.08m), and (4) 9.05kg weighted chair with a posterior axle position (Δ0.08m). Weight was added to a titanium folding chair, simulating the weight difference between very light and depot wheelchairs. Instrumented wheels measured propulsion kinetics. Main Outcome Measures Average self-selected velocity, push-frequency, stroke length, peak resultant and tangential force. Results Velocity decreased as surface rolling resistance or chair weight increased. Peak resultant and tangential forces increased as chair weight increased, surface resistance increased, and with a posterior axle position. The effect of a posterior axle position was greater on high carpet and the ramp. The effect of weight was constant, but more easily observed on high carpet and ramp. The effects of axle position and weight were independent of one another. Conclusion Increased surface resistance decreases self-selected velocity and increases peak forces. Increased weight decreases self-selected velocity and increases forces. Anterior axle positions decrease forces, more so on high carpet. Effects of weight and axle position are independent. Greatest reductions in peak forces occur in lighter chairs with anterior axle positions. PMID:19577019

  12. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  13. Positive and Negative Impacts of Non-Native Bee Species around the World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Laura

    2016-11-28

    Though they are relatively understudied, non-native bees are ubiquitous and have enormous potential economic and environmental impacts. These impacts may be positive or negative, and are often unquantified. In this manuscript, I review literature on the known distribution and environmental and economic impacts of 80 species of introduced bees. The potential negative impacts of non-native bees include competition with native bees for nesting sites or floral resources, pollination of invasive weeds, co-invasion with pathogens and parasites, genetic introgression, damage to buildings, affecting the pollination of native plant species, and changing the structure of native pollination networks. The potential positive impacts of non-native bees include agricultural pollination, availability for scientific research, rescue of native species, and resilience to human-mediated disturbance and climate change. Most non-native bee species are accidentally introduced and nest in stems, twigs, and cavities in wood. In terms of number of species, the best represented families are Megachilidae and Apidae, and the best represented genus is Megachile . The best studied genera are Apis and Bombus , and most of the species in these genera were deliberately introduced for agricultural pollination. Thus, we know little about the majority of non-native bees, accidentally introduced or spreading beyond their native ranges.

  14. Positive and Negative Impacts of Non-Native Bee Species around the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Russo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Though they are relatively understudied, non-native bees are ubiquitous and have enormous potential economic and environmental impacts. These impacts may be positive or negative, and are often unquantified. In this manuscript, I review literature on the known distribution and environmental and economic impacts of 80 species of introduced bees. The potential negative impacts of non-native bees include competition with native bees for nesting sites or floral resources, pollination of invasive weeds, co-invasion with pathogens and parasites, genetic introgression, damage to buildings, affecting the pollination of native plant species, and changing the structure of native pollination networks. The potential positive impacts of non-native bees include agricultural pollination, availability for scientific research, rescue of native species, and resilience to human-mediated disturbance and climate change. Most non-native bee species are accidentally introduced and nest in stems, twigs, and cavities in wood. In terms of number of species, the best represented families are Megachilidae and Apidae, and the best represented genus is Megachile. The best studied genera are Apis and Bombus, and most of the species in these genera were deliberately introduced for agricultural pollination. Thus, we know little about the majority of non-native bees, accidentally introduced or spreading beyond their native ranges.

  15. Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knapik, Oskar

    extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...

  16. IMPACT OF MEDICAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS ON SURGICAL OUTCOMES OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS IN HIV POSITIVE PATIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Аlkаz

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the study of the impact of social and medical factors and bad habits on the outcomes of planned surgery in 95 patients with concurrent respiratory tuberculosis and HIV infection The correlation analysis was performed which discovered the factors providing a positive impact on treatment outcomes The following factors have the strongest association with treatment outcome: patient's regular job, family, no alcohol or nicotine addiction, a form of tuberculosis, and administration of antiretroviral therapy It was noted that surgery outcome could be predicted and potential complications prevented 

  17. Supercluster simulations: impact of baryons on the matter power spectrum and weak lensing forecasts for Super-CLASS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Aaron; Brown, Michael L.; Kay, Scott T.; Barnes, David J.

    2018-03-01

    We use a combination of full hydrodynamic and dark matter only simulations to investigate the effect that supercluster environments and baryonic physics have on the matter power spectrum, by re-simulating a sample of supercluster sub-volumes. On large scales we find that the matter power spectrum measured from our supercluster sample has at least twice as much power as that measured from our random sample. Our investigation of the effect of baryonic physics on the matter power spectrum is found to be in agreement with previous studies and is weaker than the selection effect over the majority of scales. In addition, we investigate the effect of targeting a cosmologically non-representative, supercluster region of the sky on the weak lensing shear power spectrum. We do this by generating shear and convergence maps using a line-of-sight integration technique, which intercepts our random and supercluster sub-volumes. We find the convergence power spectrum measured from our supercluster sample has a larger amplitude than that measured from the random sample at all scales. We frame our results within the context of the Super-CLuster Assisted Shear Survey (Super-CLASS), which aims to measure the cosmic shear signal in the radio band by targeting a region of the sky that contains five Abell clusters. Assuming the Super-CLASS survey will have a source density of 1.5 galaxies arcmin-2, we forecast a detection significance of 2.7^{+1.5}_{-1.2}, which indicates that in the absence of systematics the Super-CLASS project could make a cosmic shear detection with radio data alone.

  18. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  19. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  20. Impact of patient positioning on radiotherapy dose distribution: An assessment in parotid tumor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seema Sharma

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: We intended to study the impact of patient positioning on the dose distribution within target volume and organs at risk in patients with parotid malignancies treated with 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT with photon wedge pair (WP or intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT.Methods: Three patients with a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma of the right parotid gland were consecutively immobilized using thermoplastic cast in 2 positions: supine with head in neutral position (HN and with head turned 90° to the left side (HT. Images for treatment planning purpose were acquired in both positions. For both positions, photon WP plans and 5 field IMRT plans were generated, after contouring clinical target volume (CTV, planning target volume (PTV= CTV + 5 mm margin and organs at risk (OAR. All plans were evaluated for target coverage and dose to OARs.Results: Both CTV and PTV were apparently larger in HN compared with HT (31.76±8.89 cc, 30.31±7.83 cc and 62.49±19.01 cc, 58.89±15.33 cc respectively. The CI value for PTV was slightly better for HT compared to HN position in both the WP and IMRT plans. The homogeneity was comparable in both the head positions in case of WP plan. The mean HI of PTV was increased in case of IMRT plan at HT versus HN position (1.108 vs. 1.097. A change in head position from HN to HT with wedge pair plan resulted in a reduction of brainstem Dmax and Dmean. Lesser dose was observed in HN position for contralateral parotid. A difference of 0.9 Gy in the average Dmax to spinal cord was seen. The values of Dmean to mandible, oral cavity, ipsilateral and contralateral cochlea were higher in the HT position. A change in head position from HN to HT with IMRT plan resulted in a dose reduction in average Dmax to brainstem. The spinal cord Dmax increased at the HT position by 1.2 Gy. The dose to contralateral parotid and cochlea was comparable in both the positions. However, the Dmean to oral cavity was reduced at HT position. Whereas

  1. A prospective study of the psychosocial impact of a positive Chlamydia trachomatis laboratory test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Sami L; Stoner, Bradley P; Zaidi, Akbar A; Buckel, Christina; Tran, Molly; Leichliter, Jami S; Berman, Stuart M; Markowitz, Lauri E

    2011-11-01

    Few data exist on potential harms of chlamydia screening. We assessed the psychosocial impact of receiving a positive Chlamydia trachomatis test result. We prospectively studied women ≥16 years of age undergoing chlamydia testing in 2 Midwestern family planning clinics. We surveyed women at baseline and about 1 month after receiving test results, using 9 validated psychosocial scales/subscales and chlamydia-specific questions. Changes in scale scores were calculated for each woman. Mean percent changes in scores for chlamydia-positive and -negative women were compared using a t test. We enrolled 1807 women (response rate, 84%). Of the 1688 women with test results, 149 (8.8%) tested positive. At follow-up, chlamydia-positive women (n = 71) had a 75% increase in anxiety about sexual aspects of their life on the Multidimensional Sexual Self-Concept Questionnaire (P < 0.001), significantly greater than the 26% increase among 280 randomly selected chlamydia-negative women (P = 0.02). There were no differences for the other 8 scales/subscales, including general measures of anxiety, depression, and self-esteem. Chlamydia-positive women were more likely than chlamydia-negative women to be "concerned about chlamydia" (80% vs. 40%, P < 0.001) and to report breaking up with a main partner (33% vs. 11%, P < 0.001) at follow-up. Women testing positive reported a range of chlamydia-specific concerns. Chlamydia-positive women had significant increases in anxiety about sex and concern about chlamydia, but did not have marked changes in more general measures of psychosocial well-being about 1 month after diagnosis. Chlamydia diagnoses were associated with some disruption of relationships with main partners. Chlamydia-specific concerns may guide counseling messages to minimize psychosocial impact.

  2. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  3. Impact of Positive Emotions Enhancement on Physiological Processes and Psychological Functioning in Military Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    behavioral therapy for bulimia nervosa: time course and mechanisms of change. Journal of Clinical consulting Psychology 2002, 20, 267-274. [44...RTO-MP-HFM-181 14 - 1 Impact of Positive Emotions Enhancement on Physiological Processes and Psychological Functioning in Military Pilots...practical tool using different techniques in order to improve regulation of emotions before, during and after actions [3]. This psychological training is

  4. Electron impact excitation of positive ions calculated in the Coulomb-Born approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakazaki, Shinobu; Hashino, Tasuke

    1979-08-01

    Theoretical results on the electron impact excitation of positive ions are surveyed through the end of 1978. As a guide to the available data, a list of references is made. The list shows ion species, transitions, energy range and methods of calculation for the respective data. Based on the literature survey, the validity of the Coulomb-Born approximation is investigated. Comparisons with the results of the close-coupling and the distorted-wave methods are briefly summarized. (author)

  5. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  6. How organisational behaviours and human factors can positively impact contractors to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnaldos Gonzalez, A.; Walker-Sutton, J.; Shannon, M.; Mendoza Garcia, J.

    2012-01-01

    Organisational behaviours have a significant impact on individual and group behaviours but are frequently ignored during the design, planning and scheduling of work or when conducting an investigation of events. Why should it matter? It is important to calculate the personal and organisational impact and cost of those elements which contribute to organisational safety. We look at two nuclear contractor organisations (one in Spain and one in the UK) that are actively making a positive difference to their behaviours in a commercial nuclear environment. They are creating a better business environment for their staff, and a robust business differentiator for future work with their clients. We consider what the cost and impact is of the changes they have made to their organisational behaviours.

  7. Transitions in the Swedish school system and the impact on student's positive self-reported-health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmström, Malin Rising; Olofsson, Niclas; Asplund, Kenneth; Kristiansen, Lisbeth

    2014-10-07

    To explore three school based transitions and their impact on positive self-reported-health (SRH), pre-school to elementary school (6-10 y), elementary school to junior high school (10-13 y), and junior high school to upper secondary school/high school (13-16 y), in a long-term longitudinal population based study. The study followed three cohorts through one school transition each. A longitudinal study with data from 6693 Health Dialogue questionnaires were used. Data were collected in the middle of Sweden during 2007-2012 with school children age 6-16 years old. Several significant factors were identified with an impact for a positive self-reported-health among children age 6-16 y; not feeling sad or depressed, afraid or worried, positive school environment (schoolyard and restrooms), not bullied, good sleep, daily physical activity and ability to concentrate. There was no single factor identified, the factors differed according to gender and age. The study have identified several gender and age specific factors for successful school transitions relevant for a positive SRH. This is valuable information for school staff, parents and school children and provides a possibility to provide support and assistance when needed.

  8. The Impact of Positive and Negative Affect and Issue Framing on Issue Interpretation and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal; Ross

    1998-12-01

    Two studies examined the influence of transient affective states and issue framing on issue interpretation and risk taking within the context of strategic decision making. In Study 1, participants in whom transient positive or negative affective states were induced by reading a short story showed systematic differences in issue interpretation and risk taking in a strategic decision making context. Compared to negative mood participants, those in a positive mood were more likely to interpret the strategic issue as an opportunity and displayed lower levels of risk taking. Study 2 replicated and extended these results by crossing affective states with threat and opportunity frames. Results showed that framing an issue (as a threat or an opportunity) had a stronger impact on issue interpretation among negative affect participants than among positive affect participants. Affective states also moderated the impact of issue framing on risk taking: the effect of framing on risk-taking was stronger under negative rather than positive affect. These results are interpreted via information-processing and motivational effects of affect on a decision maker. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

  9. Implementation and impact of in-class physical activities in a positive mental health perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars Breum Skov; Holt, Anne-Didde; Smedegaard, Søren

    Introduction School physical activity and other activities with the body in focus hold the potential to benefit student’s positive mental health and psychosocial well-being. In-class activities (ICAs) (e.g. energizers, active breaks, brain breaks) can positively influence social connectedness......, physical self-perception, motivation and emotions. However, if all students are to benefit from the potential qualities of ICA, an inclusive environment is crucial. The purpose of this study was to investigate the implementation and impact of ICA in Danish public schools. Methods ICA is one of three...... tool to promote positive mental health and well-being in schools for all students. For many teachers, ICA is a challenging task, which calls for both competence development, supportive structures, materials and local school leadership....

  10. Positive and negative psychological impact after secondary exposure to politically motivated violence among body handlers and rehabilitation workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Shimon; Wexler, Isaiah D; Alkalay, Yasmin; Meiner, Zeev; Kreitler, Shulamith

    2008-12-01

    The positive and negative psychological impact of secondary exposure to politically motivated violence was examined among body handlers and hospital rehabilitation workers, 2 groups that differed in their proximity and immediacy to violent events. Survivors of politically motivated violence served as a comparison group. Body handlers experienced high levels of positive psychological impact and traumatic stress symptoms. Levels of positive psychological impact among on-scene body handlers were higher than those experienced by rehabilitation workers. Traumatic stress symptoms predicted positive psychological impact among body handlers. These findings indicate that proximity to stressors is associated with higher levels of positive and negative psychological impact. Physical proximity is a major contributory factor to both positive and negative psychological effects of secondary exposure to trauma.

  11. MODELKEY - Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brack, W.; Bakker, J.; de Deckere, E.; Deerenberg, C.; van Gils, J.; Hein, M.; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, B.; Lamoree, M.; Lek, S.; de Alda, M. J. L.; Marcomini, A.; Munoz, I.; Rattei, S.; Segner, H.; Thomas, K.; von der Ohe, P. C.; Westrich, B.; de Zwart, D.; Schmitt-Jansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2005), s. 252-256 ISSN 0944-1344 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : biodiversity * EU- Projects * fish communities Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2005

  12. Creativity as an Attribute of Positive Psychology: The Impact of Positive and Negative Affect on the Creative Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charyton, Christine; Hutchison, Shannon; Snow, Lindsay; Rahman, Mohammed A.; Elliott, John O.

    2009-01-01

    Positive psychology explores how optimism can lead to health, happiness, and creativity. However, questions remain as to how affective states influence creativity. Data on creative personality, optimism, pessimism, positive and negative affect, and current and usual happiness ratings were collected on 161 college students enrolled in an…

  13. Piezosurgery for the Lingual Split Technique in Lingual Positioned Impacted Mandibular Third Molar Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Jing; Yang, Chi; Zheng, Jiawei; Qian, Wentao

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect and safety of lingual split technique using piezosurgery for the extraction of lingual positioned impacted mandibular 3rd molars with the goal of proposing a more minimally invasive choice for this common surgery. Eighty-nine consecutive patients with 110 lingual positioned impacted mandibular 3rd molars requiring extraction were performed the lingual split technique using piezosurgery. One sagittal osteotomy line and 2 transverse osteotomy line were designed for lingual and occlusal bone removal. The success rate, operative time, postoperative outcome, and major complications (including nerve injury, mandible fracture, severe hematoma or edema, and severe pyogenic infection) were documented and analyzed. All impacted mandibular 3rd molars were successfully removed (110/110). The average time of operation was 14.6 minutes (ranged from 7 to 28 minutes). One hundred and seven extraction sites (97.3%) were primary healing. Pain, mouth opening, swelling, and PoSSe scores on postoperative 7-day were 0.34 ± 0.63, 3.88 ± 0.66(cm), 2.4 ± 0.2(cm), and 23.7 ± 5.9, respectively. There were 6 cases (5.5%) had lingual nerve disturbance and 3 cases (2.7%) developed inferior alveolar nerve impairment, and achieved full recovery within 2 months by neurotrophic drug treatment. Our study suggested piezosurgery for lingual split technique provided an effective way for the extraction of lingual positioned and deeply impacted mandibular 3rd molar. PMID:27015214

  14. Negative and positive impact of internet addiction on young adults: Empericial study in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Shah Alam

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore and identify the impact of internet addictions of young adults in Malaysia. There are six impacts identified, of which five are negative impacts and one is positive impact.Design/methodology/approach: This study comprised sample of 200 young adults in Malaysia. A cross-sectional research design was used to examine the impact of Internet addiction. Data were gathered based on personal administered questionnaire.Findings and Originality/value: This study results show that five negative impacts of excessive internet usages such as interpersonal problem, behavioural problem, physical problem, psychological problem, and work problem of young adults.The young adults believed that the internet usage can help them to improve their skills for doing their work better. This study also reveals that males have a great impact on working problems, psychological problems, behavioural problems and interpersonal problems than female adults. On the other hand, females are leading with their physical problems by getting Internet addiction.Research limitations/implications: The data for this study are collected by self-administered questionnaire, a method with well-known shortcomings. Secondly, this study done only on young adults from only two universities in Malaysia.Practical implications: An important implication of this research is that the interesting findings give some insight to the Internet users to focus on improving Internet usage habits. Originality/value: The findings are original and unique and are based on the literature from different western researches. The results are based on a sample of young adults in Malaysia. The research findings are useful to academics and heavy Internet users those are hooked with Internet to their everyday life.

  15. Bioenergy Supply and Environmental Impacts on Cropland: Insights from Multi-market Forecasts in a Great Lakes Subregional Bioeconomic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo); Swinton, Scott M. [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo); Kang, Shujiang [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo); Post, Wilfred M. [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo); Binfield, Julian C. [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo); Thompson, Wyatt [Univ. of Lome, Lome (Togo)

    2015-01-03

    Using subregional models of crop production choices in central Wisconsin and southwest Michigan, we predict biomass production, land use, and environmental impacts with details that are unavailable from national scale models. When biomass prices are raised exogenously, we find that the subregional models overestimate the supply, the land use, and the beneficial environmental aspects of perennial biomass crops. Multi-market price feedbacks tied to realistic policy parameters predict high threshold absolute prices for biomass to enter production, resulting in intensified production of biomass from annual grain crops with damaging environmental impacts. Multi-market feedbacks also predict regional specialization in energy biomass production in areas with lower yields of food crops. Furthermore, policies promoting biofuels will not necessarily generate environmental benefits in the absence of environmental regulations.

  16. Positive media portrayals of obese persons: impact on attitudes and image preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Rebecca L; Puhl, Rebecca M; Brownell, Kelly D

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this research was to assess the impact of nonstereotypical, positive media portrayals of obese persons on biased attitudes, as well as propose a change in media practices that could reduce public weight bias and consequent negative health outcomes for those who experience weight stigma. Two online experiments were conducted in which participants viewed either a stigmatizing or a positive photograph of an obese model. In Experiment 1 (N = 146), participants viewed a photograph of either a Caucasian or African American obese woman; in Experiment 2 (N = 145), participants viewed either a Caucasian male or female obese model. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyze outcomes for social distance attitudes toward the obese models depicted in the images, in addition to other negative attitudes and image preferences. Participants who viewed the stigmatizing images endorsed stronger social distance attitudes and more negative attitudes toward obese persons than participants who viewed the positive images, and there was a stronger preference for the positive images than the stigmatizing images. These results were consistent regardless of the race or gender of the obese model pictured. The findings indicate that more positive media portrayals of obese individuals may help reduce weight stigma and its associated negative health outcomes.

  17. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  18. Impact of ART on the fertility of HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeatman, Sara; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Beckles, Zosia; Benton, Lorna; Gregson, Simon; Zaba, Basia

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the fertility of HIV-positive women is critical to estimating HIV epidemic trends from surveillance data and to planning resource needs and coverage of prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in sub-Saharan Africa. In the light of the considerable scale-up in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage over the last decade, we conducted a systematic review of the impact of ART on the fertility outcomes of HIV-positive women. We searched Medline, Embase, Popline, PubMed and African Index Medicus. Studies were included if they were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and provided estimates of fertility outcomes (live births or pregnancies) among women on ART relative to a comparison group. Of 2070 unique references, 18 published papers met all eligibility criteria. Comparisons fell into four categories: fertility of HIV-positive women relative to HIV-negative women; fertility of HIV-positive women on ART compared to those not yet on ART; fertility differences by duration on ART; and temporal trends in fertility among HIV-positive women. Evidence indicates that fertility increases after approximately the first year on ART and that while the fertility deficit of HIV-positive women is shrinking, their fertility remains below that of HIV-negative women. These findings, however, were based on limited data mostly during the period 2005-2010 when ART scaled up. Existing data are insufficient to characterise how ART has affected the fertility of HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving evidence about fertility among women on ART is an urgent priority for planning HIV resource needs and understanding HIV epidemic trends. Alternative data sources such as antenatal clinic data, general population cohorts and population-based surveys can be harnessed to understand the issue. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Towards evidence-based classification in wheelchair sports: impact of seating position on wheelchair acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanlandewijck, Yves C; Verellen, Joeri; Tweedy, Sean

    2011-07-01

    In most Paralympic wheelchair sports, active trunk range of movement is assessed by observing shoulder girdle excursion during active trunk movements and is a key determinant of an athlete's class. However, to date research evaluating the impact of reduced trunk range of movement on wheelchair sports performance has not been conducted. In the present study, 15 non-disabled male participants performed two 20-s sprints on a wheelchair ergometer in each of three seating positions. Positions were typical of those used to enhance sitting stability in wheelchair sport and each impacted available trunk range of movement differently: condition-90 (seated with thighs horizontal; unrestricted range of movement) condition-45 (seated with thighs in 45°), and condition-0 (seated with hips maximally flexed; minimum range of movement). In condition-90, the trunk only actively contributed to the first push; for the remainder of the sprint, the trunk was held almost isometrically at 48.2° to the horizontal (range 42.1-56.4°). Similar patterns were observed for both condition-45 and condition-0. Compared with condition-90, participants in condition-0 had reduced capacity to accelerate of statistical (P sports performance, including strapping, seating position, and impairments of trunk muscle power and coordination.

  20. Impact of positive thyroid autoimmunity on pregnant women with subclinical hypothyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Tinoco, Cristina; Rodríguez-Mengual, Amparo; Lara-Barea, Almudena; Barcala, Julia; Larrán, Laura; Saez-Benito, Ana; Aguilar-Diosdado, Manuel

    2018-03-01

    The impact of subclinical hypothyroidism (SH) and thyroid autoimmunity on obstetric and perinatal complications continues to be a matter of interest and highly controversial. To assess the impact of SH and autoimmunity in early pregnancy on the obstetric and perinatal complications in our population. A retrospective cohort study in 435 women with SH (TSH ranging from 3.86 and 10 μIU/mL and normal FT4 values) in the first trimester of pregnancy. Epidemiological and clinical parameters were analyzed and were related to obstetric and perinatal complications based on the presence of autoimmunity (thyroid peroxidase antibodies [TPO] > 34 IU/mL). Mean age was 31.3 years (SD 5.2). Seventeen percent of patients had positive TPO antibodies. Presence of positive autoimmunity was associated to a family history of hypothyroidism (P=.04) and a higher chance of miscarriage (P=.009). In the multivariate analysis, positive TPO antibodies were associated to a 10.25-fold higher risk of miscarriage. No statistically significant associations were found with all other obstetric and perinatal complications. In our region, pregnant women with SH and thyroid autoimmunity had a higher risk of miscarriage but not of other obstetric and perinatal complications. Copyright © 2017 SEEN y SED. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. The relation between gastro-oesophageal reflux, sleeping-position and sudden infant death and its impact on positional therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenplas, Y.; Belli, D. C.; Dupont, C.; Kneepkens, C. M.; Heymans, H. S.

    1997-01-01

    Many infants do regurgitate. The recommended therapeutic approach starts with postural and dietary measures, followed by antacids and prokinetics. However, the recent findings regarding the increased risk for sudden infant death (SID) in the prone sleeping position challenge the current

  2. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy

    OpenAIRE

    Dehua Zheng; Min Shi; Yifeng Wang; Abinet Tesfaye Eseye; Jianhua Zhang

    2017-01-01

    The power generated by wind generators is usually associated with uncertainties, due to the intermittency of wind speed and other weather variables. This creates a big challenge for transmission system operators (TSOs) and distribution system operators (DSOs) in terms of connecting, controlling and managing power networks with high-penetration wind energy. Hence, in these power networks, accurate wind power forecasts are essential for their reliable and efficient operation. They support TSOs ...

  3. Forecast errors in IEA-countries' energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linderoth, Hans

    2002-01-01

    Every year Policy of IEA Countries includes a forecast of the energy consumption in the member countries. Forecasts concerning the years 1985,1990 and 1995 can now be compared to actual values. The second oil crisis resulted in big positive forecast errors. The oil price drop in 1986 did not have...... the small value is often the sum of large positive and negative errors. Almost no significant correlation is found between forecast errors in the 3 years. Correspondingly, no significant correlation coefficient is found between forecasts errors in the 3 main energy sectors. Therefore, a relatively small...

  4. Exploring the impact of positive and negative emotions on cooperative behaviour in a Prisoner's Dilemma Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjell, Oscar N E; Thompson, Sam

    2013-12-19

    Objective. To explore the influences of discrete positive and negative emotions on cooperation in the context of a social dilemma game. Design. Two controlled studies were undertaken. In Study 1, 69 participants were randomly assigned to an essay emotion manipulation task designed to induce either guilt, joy or no strong emotion. In Study 2, 95 participants were randomly assigned to one of the same three tasks, and the impact of emotional condition on cooperation was explored using a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma Game. Results. Study 1 established that the manipulation task was successful in inducing the specified emotions. The analysis from Study 2 revealed no significant main effects for emotions, in contrast to previous research. However, there was a significant effect for participants' pre-existing tendency to cooperate (social value orientation; SVO). Conclusion. Methodological explanations for the result are explored, including the possible impact of trial-and-error strategies, different cooperation games and endogenous vs exogenous emotions.

  5. Impact of positive psychological capital on employee well-being over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avey, James B; Luthans, Fred; Smith, Ronda M; Palmer, Noel F

    2010-01-01

    The recently recognized core construct of psychological capital or PsyCap (consisting of the positive psychological resources of efficacy, hope, optimism, and resilience) has been demonstrated to be related to various employee attitudinal, behavioral, and performance outcomes. However, to date, the impact of this positive core construct over time and on important employee well-being outcomes has not been tested. This study meets this need by analyzing the relationship between a broad cross-section of employees' (N = 280) level of PsyCap and two measures of psychological well-being over time. The results indicated that employees' PsyCap was related to both measures of well-being and, importantly, that PsyCap explained additional variance in these well-being measures over time. The limitations, needed future research, and practical implications conclude the article.

  6. Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.; hide

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath ( 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state

  7. Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft-and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, TImothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Gamache, John; Amarin, Ruba; El-Nimri, Salem; hide

    2010-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft currently using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

  8. The impact of arm position on the measurement of orthostatic blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guss, David A; Abdelnur, Diego; Hemingway, Thomas J

    2008-05-01

    Blood pressure is a standard vital sign in patients evaluated in an Emergency Department. The American Heart Association has recommended a preferred position of the arm and cuff when measuring blood pressure. There is no formal recommendation for arm position when measuring orthostatic blood pressure. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of different arm positions on the measurement of postural changes in blood pressure. This was a prospective, unblinded, convenience study involving Emergency Department patients with complaints unrelated to cardiovascular instability. Repeated blood pressure measurements were obtained using an automatic non-invasive device with each subject in a supine and standing position and with the arm parallel and perpendicular to the torso. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a difference of >or= 20 mm Hg systolic or >or= 10 mm Hg diastolic when subtracting standing from supine measurements. There were four comparisons made: group W, arm perpendicular supine and standing; group X, arm parallel supine and standing; group Y, arm parallel supine and perpendicular standing; and group Z, arm perpendicular supine and parallel standing. There were 100 patients enrolled, 55 men, mean age 44 years. Four blood pressure measurements were obtained on each patient. The percentage of patients meeting orthostatic hypotension criteria in each group was: W systolic 6% (95% CI 1%, 11%), diastolic 4% (95% CI 0%, 8%), X systolic 8% (95% CI 3%, 13%), diastolic 9% (95% CI 3%, 13%), Y systolic 19% (95% CI 11%, 27%), diastolic 30% (95% CI 21%, 39%), Z systolic 2% (95% CI 0%, 5%), diastolic 2% (95% CI 0%, 5%). Comparison of Group Y vs. X, Z, and W was statistically significant (p postural changes in blood pressure. The combination of the arm parallel when supine and perpendicular when standing may significantly overestimate the orthostatic change. Arm position should be held constant in supine and standing positions when assessing for orthostatic

  9. Impact of Audio-Coaching on the Position of Lung Tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Spoelstra, Femke; Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Soernsen de Koste, John R. van; Cuijpers, Johan P.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, Suresh

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Respiration-induced organ motion is a major source of positional, or geometric, uncertainty in thoracic radiotherapy. Interventions to mitigate the impact of motion include audio-coached respiration-gated radiotherapy (RGRT). To assess the impact of coaching on average tumor position during gating, we analyzed four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scans performed both with and without audio-coaching. Methods and Materials: Our RGRT protocol requires that an audio-coached 4DCT scan is performed when the initial free-breathing 4DCT indicates a potential benefit with gating. We retrospectively analyzed 22 such paired scans in patients with well-circumscribed tumors. Changes in lung volume and position of internal target volumes (ITV) generated in three consecutive respiratory phases at both end-inspiration and end-expiration were analyzed. Results: Audio-coaching increased end-inspiration lung volumes by a mean of 10.2% (range, -13% to +43%) when compared with free breathing (p = 0.001). The mean three-dimensional displacement of the center of ITV was 3.6 mm (SD, 2.5; range, 0.3-9.6mm), mainly caused by displacement in the craniocaudal direction. Displacement of ITV caused by coaching was more than 5 mm in 5 patients, all of whom were in the subgroup of 9 patients showing total tumor motion of 10 mm or more during both coached and uncoached breathing. Comparable ITV displacements were observed at end-expiration phases of the 4DCT. Conclusions: Differences in ITV position exceeding 5 mm between coached and uncoached 4DCT scans were detected in up to 56% of mobile tumors. Both end-inspiration and end-expiration RGRT were susceptible to displacements. This indicates that the method of audio-coaching should remain unchanged throughout the course of treatment

  10. Impact of Vertical Canopy Position on Leaf Spectral Properties and Traits across Multiple Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tawanda W. Gara

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the vertical pattern of leaf traits across plant canopies provide critical information on plant physiology, ecosystem functioning and structure and vegetation response to climate change. However, the impact of vertical canopy position on leaf spectral properties and subsequently leaf traits across the entire spectrum for multiple species is poorly understood. In this study, we examined the ability of leaf optical properties to track variability in leaf traits across the vertical canopy profile using Partial Least Square Discriminatory Analysis (PLS-DA. Leaf spectral measurements together with leaf traits (nitrogen, carbon, chlorophyll, equivalent water thickness and specific leaf area were studied at three vertical canopy positions along the plant stem: lower, middle and upper. We observed that foliar nitrogen (N, chlorophyll (Cab, carbon (C, and equivalent water thickness (EWT were higher in the upper canopy leaves compared with lower shaded leaves, while specific leaf area (SLA increased from upper to lower canopy leaves. We found that leaf spectral reflectance significantly (P ≤ 0.05 shifted to longer wavelengths in the ‘red edge’ spectrum (685–701 nm in the order of lower > middle > upper for the pooled dataset. We report that spectral bands that are influential in the discrimination of leaf samples into the three groups of canopy position, based on the PLS-DA variable importance projection (VIP score, match with wavelength regions of foliar traits observed to vary across the canopy vertical profile. This observation demonstrated that both leaf traits and leaf reflectance co-vary across the vertical canopy profile in multiple species. We conclude that canopy vertical position has a significant impact on leaf spectral properties of an individual plant’s traits, and this finding holds for multiple species. These findings have important implications on field sampling protocols, upscaling leaf traits to canopy level

  11. Positive Correlation Between Academic Library Services and High-Impact Practices for

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saori Wendy Herman, MLIS, AHIP

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective – To investigate the perceived alignment between academic library services and high-impact practices (HIPs that affect student retention. Design – Survey questionnaire. Setting – Public comprehensive universities in the United States of America with a Carnegie classification of master’s level as of January 2013. Subjects – 68 library deans or directors out of the 271 who were originally contacted. Methods – The author used Qualtrics software to create a survey based on the HIPs, tested the survey for reliability, and then distributed it to 271 universities. Library services were grouped into 1 of 3 library scales: library collection, library instruction, or library facilities. The survey consisted of a matrix of 10 Likert-style questions addressing the perceived level of alignment between the library scales and the HIPs. Each question provided an opportunity for the respondent to enter a “brief description of support practices” (p 477. Additional demographic questions addressed the years of experience of the respondent, undergraduate student enrollment of the university, and whether librarians held faculty rank. Main Results – The author measured Pearson correlation coefficients and found a positive correlation between the library scales and the HIPs. All three library scales displayed a moderately strong positive correlation between first-year seminars and experiences (HIP 1, common intellectual experiences (HIP 2, writing-intensive courses (HIP 4, undergraduate research (HIP 6, diversity and global learning (HIP 7, service learning and community-based learning (HIP 8, internships (HIP 9, and capstone courses and projects (HIP 10. The library collections scale and library facilities scale displayed a moderately strong correlation with learning communities (HIP 3 and collaborative assignments and projects (HIP 5. The library instruction scale displayed a strong positive correlation with HIP 3 and a very strong

  12. Forecasting the impact of an invasive macrophyte species in the littoral zone through aquatic insect species composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo H. L. Saulino

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Invasive macrophytes threaten freshwater ecosystem biodiversity. We analyzed the impact of the invasive white ginger lily (Hedychium coronarium J. König, Zingiberaceae on aquatic insect assemblages living in the littoral zone of a tropical reservoir. We took aquatic insect samples in the littoral zone on four main vegetal profile banks: white ginger monotypic bank, forest partially invaded, native macrophyte monotypic bank and riparian forest. At each vegetal bank, we measured abiotic variables such as dissolved oxygen, pH, water temperature and depth. We analyzed the aquatic insects through abundance, richness and Simpson diversity. We used the non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (nMDS analysis to analyze the spatial distribution of each assemblage, and Analysis of similarities (ANOSIM to verify differences amongst dissimilarity distances. Additionally, we analyzed the main taxa associated with invasive macrophytes through indicator species analyses using IndVal index. We observed that the invasive macrophyte banks presented higher abundance of associated specimens, as well as lower dissimilarity of aquatic insect assemblages. Additionally, invasive macrophytes shifted the water pH and littoral depth of reservoir banks. The IndVal index indicated eight aquatic insects as indicator species. Labrundinia unicolor Silva, 2013, Ablabesmyia depaulai Neubern, 2013 and Diastatops Rambur, 1842 were indicator species on banks. We concluded that invasion of white ginger lily caused loss of shallow littoral habitat and altered the pH of the surrounding water probably by high decomposition rate and high production of plant biomass. We suggest the use of species of aquatic insects as indicator species to monitor white ginger lily impact in freshwater systems.

  13. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  14. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  15. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  16. Coupling of WRF meteorological model to WAM spectral wave model through sea surface roughness at the Balearic Sea: impact on wind and wave forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2012-04-01

    Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = α-u2* g The Charnock coefficient α may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness α = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient α a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the

  17. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  18. The impact of E-Marketing in the positioning of Kosovo Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Shpresa Mehmeti

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The following thesis will present the results of a study on the impact of electronic marketing in bank positioning in Kosovo. As a case study we have selected ProCredit Bank and Raiffeisen Bank which are operating in Kosovo for several years now. Development of information technology has brought changes in every day work offering various opportunities to the clients and its activities in particular to financial institutions In this study we have surveyed customers of the banks that operate in Kosovo. For data collection an electronic questionnaire has been used, which was sent to the clients of both banks which are subject of study. The purpose of this paper is to reveal how these banks apply electronic systems for the provision of services and how this service has impact on their position in the banking market in Kosovo. Findings from this study have enabled us to understand that the banking sector still suffers deficiencies regarding Internet usage by customers to perform banking transactions.

  19. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  20. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  1. Forecasting of Processes in Complex Systems for Real-World Problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pelikán, Emil

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 6 (2014), s. 567-589 ISSN 1210-0552 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : complex systems * data assimilation * ensemble forecasting * forecasting * global solar radiation * judgmental forecasting * multimodel forecasting * pollution Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.479, year: 2014

  2. Stratification of antibody-positive subjects by antibody level reveals an impact of immunogenicity on pharmacokinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lei; Hoofring, Sarah A; Wu, Yu; Vu, Thuy; Ma, Peiming; Swanson, Steven J; Chirmule, Narendra; Starcevic, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The availability of highly sensitive immunoassays enables the detection of antidrug antibody (ADA) responses of various concentrations and affinities. The analysis of the impact of antibody status on drug pharmacokinetics (PK) is confounded by the presence of low-affinity or low-concentration antibody responses within the dataset. In a phase 2 clinical trial, a large proportion of subjects (45%) developed ADA following weekly dosing with AMG 317, a fully human monoclonal antibody therapeutic. The antibody responses displayed a wide range of relative concentrations (30 ng/mL to >13 μg/mL) and peaked at various times during the study. To evaluate the impact of immunogenicity on PK, AMG 317 concentration data were analyzed following stratification by dose group, time point, antibody status (positive or negative), and antibody level (relative concentration). With dose group as a stratifying variable, a moderate reduction in AMG 317 levels (AMG 317 levels was revealed when antibody data was stratified by both time point and antibody level. In general, high ADA concentrations (>500 ng/mL) and later time points (week 12) were associated with significantly (up to 97%) lower trough AMG 317 concentrations. The use of quasi-quantitative antibody data and appropriate statistical methods was critical for the most comprehensive evaluation of the impact of immunogenicity on PK.

  3. Adopting the international financial reporting standards: a positive impact on 2004 income and consolidated equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallet, O.

    2005-03-01

    This document provides preliminary information on the quantitative impact of transition to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on AREVA 2004 financial position, in accordance with AMF recommendations regarding financial communications during the transition period.The basis for preparing 2004 information on transition to the IFRS comes from: the International Accounting Standards (IAS)/IFRS, as approved by the European Union. The impact of IAS 32/39 and IFRS 4 will not be recognized in shareholders equity until January 1, 2005; AREVA anticipation of the resolution of technical issues and ongoing projects under discussion by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the International Financial Reporting Interpretations Committee (IFRIC). Uncertainty factors on practical methods for applying certain standards and ongoing interpretations by IFRIC and regulatory organizations could impact the exactness of restatements identified at this stage. For all of these reasons, it is conceivable that the opening balance sheet at January 1, 2004, as presented in this document, will not be the balance sheet actually used to establish the consolidated financial statements for 2005. (author)

  4. Estimating the cost-per-result of a national reflexed Cryptococcal antigenaemia screening program: Forecasting the impact of potential HIV guideline changes and treatment goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassim, Naseem; Coetzee, Lindi Marie; Schnippel, Kathryn; Glencross, Deborah Kim

    2017-01-01

    During 2016, the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) introduced laboratory-based reflexed Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening to detect early Cryptococcal disease in immunosuppressed HIV+ patients with a confirmed CD4 count of 100 cells/μl or less. The aim of this study was to assess cost-per-result of a national screening program across different tiers of laboratory service, with variable daily CrAg test volumes. The impact of potential ART treatment guideline and treatment target changes on CrAg volumes, platform choice and laboratory workflow are considered. CD4 data (with counts per-result was calculated for four scenarios, including the existing service status quo (Scenario-I), and three other settings (as Scenarios II-IV) which were based on information from recent antiretroviral (ART) guidelines, District Health Information System (DHIS) data and UNAIDS 90/90/90 HIV/AIDS treatment targets. Scenario-II forecast CD4 testing offered only to new ART initiates recorded at DHIS. Scenario-III projected all patients notified as HIV+, but not yet on ART (recorded at DHIS) and Scenario-IV forecast CrAg screening in 90% of estimated HIV+ patients across South Africa (also DHIS). Stata was used to assess daily CrAg volumes at the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles across 52 CD4-laboratories. Daily volumes were used to determine technical effort/ operator staff costs (% full time equivalent) and cost-per-result for all scenarios. Daily volumes ranged between 3 and 64 samples for Scenario-I at the 5th and 95th percentile. Similarly, daily volumes ranges of 1-12, 2-45 and 5-100 CrAg-directed samples were noted for Scenario's II, III and IV respectively. A cut-off of 30 CrAg tests per day defined use of either LFA or EIA platform. LFA cost-per-result ranged from $8.24 to $5.44 and EIA cost-per-result between $5.58 and $4.88 across the range of test volumes. The technical effort across scenarios ranged from 3.2-27.6% depending on test volumes and

  5. The Sweet and the Bitter: Intertwined Positive and Negative Social Impacts of a Biodiversity Offset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Bidaud

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Major developments, such as mines, will often have unavoidable environmental impacts. In such cases, investors, governments, or even a company's own standards increasingly require implementation of biodiversity offsets (investment in conservation with a measurable outcome with the aim of achieving 'no net loss' or even a 'net gain' of biodiversity. Where conservation is achieved by changing the behaviour of people directly using natural resources, the offset might be expected to have social impacts but such impacts have received very little attention. Using the case study of Ambatovy, a major nickel mine in the eastern rainforests of Madagascar and a company at the vanguard of developing biodiversity offsets, we explore local perceptions of the magnitude and distribution of impacts of the biodiversity offset project on local wellbeing. We used both qualitative (key informant interviews and focus group discussions and quantitative (household survey methods. We found that the biodiversity offsets, which comprise both conservation restrictions and development activities, influenced wellbeing in a mixture of positive and negative ways. However, overall, respondents felt that they had suffered a net cost from the biodiversity offset. It is a matter of concern that benefits from development activities do not compensate for the costs of the conservation restrictions, that those who bear the costs are not the same people as those who benefit, and that there is a mismatch in timing between the immediate restrictions and the associated development activities which take some time to deliver benefits. These issues matter both from the perspective of environmental justice, and for the long-term sustainability of the biodiversity benefits the offset is supposed to deliver.

  6. Options to Improve the Quality of Wind Generation Output Forecasting with the Use of Available Information as Explanatory Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Magulski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Development of wind generation, besides its positive aspects related to the use of renewable energy, is a challenge from the point of view of power systems’ operational security and economy. The uncertain and variable nature of wind generation sources entails the need for the for the TSO to provide adequate reserves of power, necessary to maintain the grid’s stable operation, and the actors involved in the trading of energy from these sources incur additional of balancing unplanned output deviations. The paper presents the results of analyses concerning the options to forecast a selected wind farm’s output exercised by means of different methods of prediction, using a different range of measurement and forecasting data available on the farm and its surroundings. The analyses focused on the evaluation of forecast errors, and selection of input data for forecasting models and assessment of their impact on prediction quality improvement.

  7. Neutron flux distribution forecasting device of reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uematsu, Hitoshi

    1991-01-01

    A neutron flux distribution is forecast by using current data obtained from a reactor. That is, the device of the present invention comprises (1) a neutron flux monitor disposed in various positions in the reactor, (2) a forecasting means for calculating and forecasting a one-dimensional neutron flux distribution relative to imaginable events by using data obtained from the neutron flux monitor and physical models, and (3) a display means for displaying the results forecast in the forecasting means to a reactor operation console. Since the forecast values for the one-dimensional neutron flux distribution relative to the imaginable events are calculated in the device of the present invention by using data obtained from the neutron flux monitor and the physical models, the data as a base of the calculation are new and the period for calculating the forecast values can be shortened. Accordingly, although there is a worry of providing some errors in the forecast values, they can be utilized sufficiently as reference data. As a result, the reactor can be operated more appropriately. (I.N.)

  8. The Impact of Eclipsing GNSS Satellites on the Precise Point Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyun Cao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available When satellites enter into the noon maneuver or the shadow crossing regimes, the actual attitudes will depart from their nominal values. If improper attitude models are used, the induced-errors due to the wind-up effect and satellite antenna PCO (Phase Center Offset will deteriorate the positioning accuracy. Because different generations of satellites adopt different attitude control models, the influences on the positioning performances deserve further study. Consequently, the impact of three eclipsing strategies on the single-system and multi-GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System Precise Point Positioning (PPP are analyzed. According to the results of the eclipsing monitor, 65 globally distributed MGEX (Multi-GNSS EXperiment stations for 31-day period in July 2017 are selected to perform G/R/E/C/GR/GREC PPP in both static and kinematic modes. The results show that the influences of non-nominal attitudes are related to the magnitude of the PCO values, maximum yaw angle differences, the duration of maneuver, the value of the sun angle and the satellite geometric strength. For single-system, using modeled attitudes rather than the nominal ones will greatly improve the positioning accuracy of GLONASS-only and BDS-only PPP while slightly contributions to the GPS-only and GALILEO-only PPP. Deleting the eclipsing satellites may sometimes induce a longer convergence time and a worse solution due to the poor satellite geometry, especially for GLONASS kinematic PPP when stations are located in the low latitude and BDS kinematic PPP. When multi-GNSS data are available, especially four navigation systems, the accuracy improvements of using the modeled attitudes or deleting eclipsing satellites are non-significant.

  9. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  10. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  11. Reduction of in utero lead exposures in South African populations: Positive impact of unleaded petrol.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halina B Röllin

    Full Text Available Prenatal exposure to lead (Pb has been shown to have negative and irreversible health impacts on foetal and early childhood development, affecting morbidity and mortality in adulthood. This study aimed to assess in utero Pb exposure, examine birth outcomes, and identify confounding factors in the large cohort of South African population, following the legislated removal of Pb from petrol.Lead was measured in the maternal blood, urine and cord blood using Inductive Coupled Plasma Mass spectrometry (ICP-MS. The statistical analyses included Spearman's correlation, Wilcoxon rank sum (Mann Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis rank tests and multivariate linear regression.Overall, the geometric mean (GM of Pb in maternal blood (PbB was 1.32 μg/dL (n = 640; 95% CI, 1.24-1.40. In the subset cohort, the GM of paired maternal PbB and cord blood (PbC was 1.73 μg/dL (n = 350; 95% CI, 1.60-1.86 and 1.26 μg/dL (n = 317; 95% CI, 1.18-1.35, respectively with a positive correlation between the log PbB and the log PbC (rho = 0.65, p = <0.001. Birth outcomes showed geographical differences in the gestational age (p<0.001, birth length (p = 0.028 and head circumference (p<0.001, Apgar score at 5 min (p<0.001 and parity (p<0.002. In female neonates, a positive association was found between PbC and head circumference (rho = 0.243; p<0.016. The maternal PbB levels were positively correlated with race, educational status, water sources, cooking fuels and use of pesticides at home.This study has demonstrated not only the positive impact that the introduction of unleaded petrol and lead-free paint has had on in utero exposure to Pb in South Africa, but has also contributed new data on the topic, in a region where such data and scientific investigations in this field are lacking. Future research should evaluate if similar effects can be detected in young children and the adult population.

  12. Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....

  13. Space weather: Modeling and forecasting ionospheric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calzadilla Mendez, A.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Space weather is the set of phenomena and interactions that take place in the interplanetary medium. It is regulated primarily by the activity originating in the Sun and affects both the artificial satellites that are outside of the protective cover of the Earth's atmosphere as the rest of the planets in the solar system. Among the phenomena that are of great relevance and impact on Earth are the auroras and geomagnetic storms , these are a direct result of irregularities in the flow of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field . Given the high complexity of the physical phenomena involved (magnetic reconnection , particle inlet and ionizing radiation to the atmosphere) one of the great scientific challenges today is to forecast the state of plasmatic means either the interplanetary medium , the magnetosphere and ionosphere , for their importance to the development of various human activities such as radio , global positioning , navigation, etc. . It briefly address some of the international ionospheric modeling methods and contributions and participation that currently has the space group of the Institute of Geophysics Geophysics and Astronomy (IGA) in these activities of modeling and forecasting ionospheric. (author)

  14. Position paper on the impact of including methane number in natural gas regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    GIIGNL has developed a position paper to describe methane number and the possible impact on the LNG market of a future regulation/specification for this parameter which is linked to natural gas quality. Currently, there are several standards describing calculation methods of natural gas methane number, but there are doubts about their reliability and the results differ from each other. No official regulation which states a minimum value for methane number of natural gas has been identified. A methane number of 80, as recommended by some organisations in Europe, would endanger the LNG supply to the market, limiting acceptable LNG sources, or would require expensive gas treatment. In the long term, if there is a market for high methane number natural gas, this may be an opportunity for LNG terminals able to adjust or manage supplies to the desired methane number

  15. Non-parametric adaptive importance sampling for the probability estimation of a launcher impact position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Importance sampling (IS) is a useful simulation technique to estimate critical probability with a better accuracy than Monte Carlo methods. It consists in generating random weighted samples from an auxiliary distribution rather than the distribution of interest. The crucial part of this algorithm is the choice of an efficient auxiliary PDF that has to be able to simulate more rare random events. The optimisation of this auxiliary distribution is often in practice very difficult. In this article, we propose to approach the IS optimal auxiliary density with non-parametric adaptive importance sampling (NAIS). We apply this technique for the probability estimation of spatial launcher impact position since it has currently become a more and more important issue in the field of aeronautics.

  16. Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renteria, W.

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

  17. Inherent Complexity Research on the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Two Retailers: The Impact of Three Forecasting Methods Considering Market Share

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhai Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An important phenomenon in supply chain management which is known as the bullwhip effect suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. This paper contrasts the bullwhip effect for a two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and two retailers under three forecasting methods based on the market share. We can quantify the correlation coefficient between the two retailers clearly, in consideration of market share. The two retailers both employ the order-up-to inventory policy for replenishments. The bullwhip effect is measured, respectively, under the minimum mean squared error (MMSE, moving average (MA, and exponential smoothing (ES forecasting methods. The effect of autoregressive coefficient, lead time, and the market share on a bullwhip effect measure is investigated by using algebraic analysis and numerical simulation. And the comparison of the bullwhip effect under three forecasting methods is conducted. The conclusion suggests that different forecasting methods and various parameters lead to different bullwhip effects. Hence, the corresponding forecasting method should be chosen by the managers under different parameters in practice.

  18. The positive impact of radiologic imaging on high-stage cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Emily Stamell; Karia, Pritesh S; Morgan, Frederick C; Schmults, Chrysalyne D

    2017-02-01

    There is limited evidence on the utility of radiologic imaging for prognostic staging of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC). Review utilization of radiologic imaging of high-stage CSCCs to evaluate whether imaging impacted management and outcomes. Tumors classified as Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) tumor (T) stage T2B or T3 over a 13-year period were reviewed to identify whether imaging was performed and whether results affected treatment. Disease-related outcomes (DRO: local recurrence, nodal metastasis, death from disease) were compared between patients by type of imaging used. 108 high-stage CSCCs in 98 patients were included. Imaging (mostly computed tomography, 79%) was utilized in 45 (46%) patients and management was altered in 16 (33%) patients who underwent imaging. Patients that received no imaging were at higher risk of developing nodal metastases (nonimaging, 30%; imaging, 13%; P = .041) and any DRO (nonimaging, 42%; imaging, 20%; P = .028) compared to the imaging group. Imaging was associated with a lower risk for DRO (subhazard ratio, 0.5; 95% CI 0.2-0.9; P = .046) adjusted for BWH T stage, sex, and location. Single institution retrospective design and changes in technology overtime. Radiologic imaging of high-stage CSCC may influence management and appears to positively impact outcomes. Further prospective studies are needed to establish which patients benefit from imaging. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  20. Health impact assessment research and practice: A place for paradigm positioning?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, Fiona; Harris, Patrick; Haigh, Neil

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we provide a critical review of the place of paradigm in health impact assessment (HIA) research and practice. We contend that most HIA practitioners have given insufficient attention to paradigm positioning when developing and applying HIA methodologies and that some concerns about current HIA practice can be attributed to this. We review HIA literature to assess the extent and nature of attention given to paradigm positioning and these related concerns. We then respond to our critique by exploring the implications, opportunities and challenges of adopting a critical realist paradigm, which we believe has the potential to help HIA practitioners to develop HIA methodology in a way that addresses these issues. - Highlights: ► We provide a critical review of the place of paradigm in HIA. ► We demonstrate that HIA practitioners give insufficient attention to paradigm. ► The implications, opportunities and challenges of adopting a critical realist paradigm are explored. ► This is the first paper, to our knowledge, that discusses a critical realist approach to HIA.

  1. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J. [The University of Sydney, Medical Image Optimisation and Perception Group, Discipline of Medical Radiation Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Lidcombe, NSW (Australia)

    2016-10-15

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  2. Cooperation for a competitive position: The impact of hospital cooperation behavior on organizational performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büchner, Vera Antonia; Hinz, Vera; Schreyögg, Jonas

    2015-01-01

    Several public policy initiatives, particularly those involving managed care, aim to enhance cooperation between partners in the health care sector because it is expected that such cooperation will reduce costs and generate additional revenue. However, empirical evidence regarding the effects of cooperation on hospital performance is scarce, particularly with respect to creating a comprehensive measure of cooperation behavior. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of hospital cooperation behavior on organizational performance. We differentiate between horizontal and vertical cooperation using two alternative measures-cooperation depth and cooperation breadth-and include the interaction effects between both cooperation directions. Data are derived from a survey of German hospitals and combined with objective performance information from annual financial statements. Generalized linear regression models are used. The study findings provide insight into the nature of hospitals' cooperation behavior. In particular, we show that there are negative synergies between horizontal administrative cooperation behavior and vertical cooperation behavior. Whereas the depth and breadth of horizontal administrative cooperation positively affect financial performance (when there is no vertical cooperation), vertical cooperation positively affects financial performance (when there is no horizontal administrative cooperation) only when cooperation is broad (rather than deep). Horizontal cooperation is generally more effective than vertical cooperation at improving financial performance. Hospital managers should consider the negative interaction effect when making decisions about whether to recommend a cooperative relationship in a horizontal or vertical direction. In addition, managers should be aware of the limited financial benefit of cooperation behavior.

  3. Impact of employment instability on socio-economic position of employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav Nikolaevich Bobkov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the article is the relationships in labor utilization. The article analyzes the impact of employment instability on the socio-economic situation of employees in Russia. Questions revealing the concept content of employment instability, its real forms and socio-economic consequences for employees are considered. Methods of statistical and sociological data analysis are applied. Indicators to measure the scope and level of employment instability of employees are calculated. The dynamics in the time of the size of employment instability in Russia are analyzed. The obtained results can be applied within national economic and social policy. The findings indicate that employment instability is high, and it threatens socio-economic position of the great number of employees in Russia. It is argued that, in these conditions, the most appropriate in the fight against the spread of employment instability are the set of government initiatives, proactive position of the Russian society and the expansion of societal forms of control over the government.

  4. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  5. Integration of wind generation forecasts. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlstrom, M.; Zavadil, B.; Jones, L.

    2005-01-01

    WindLogics is a company that specializes in atmospheric modelling, visualization and fine-scale forecasting systems for the wind power industry. A background of the organization was presented. The complexities of wind modelling were discussed. Issues concerning location and terrain, shear, diurnal and interannual variability were reviewed. It was suggested that wind power producers should aim to be mainstream, and that variability should be considered as intrinsic to fuel supply. Various utility operating impacts were outlined. Details of an Xcel NSP wind integration study were presented, as well as a studies conducted in New York state and Colorado. It was concluded that regulations and load following impacts with wind energy integration are modest. Overall impacts are dominated by costs incurred to accommodate wind generation variability and uncertainty in the day-ahead time frame. Cost impacts can be reduced with adjustments to operating strategies, improvements in wind forecasting and access to real-time markets. Details of WindLogic's wind energy forecast system were presented, as well as examples of day ahead and hour ahead forecasts and wind speed and power forecasts. Screenshots of control room integration, EMS integration and simulations were presented. Details of a utility-scale wind energy forecasting system funded by Xcel Renewable Development Fund (RDF) were also presented. The goal of the system was to optimize the way that wind forecast information is integrated into the control room environment. Project components were outlined. It was concluded that accurate day-ahead forecasting can lead to significant asset optimization. It was recommended that wind plants share data, and aim to resolve issues concerning grid codes and instrumentation. refs., tabs., figs

  6. Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, Crystal J.; Carey, L. D.; Petersen, W. A.; Roeder, W. P.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between

  7. Impact of knee support and shape of tabletop on rectum and prostate position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenbakkers, Roel; Duppen, Joop C.; Betgen, Anja; Lotz, Heidi; Remeijer, Peter; Fitton, Isabelle; Nowak, Peter; Herk, Marcel van; Rasch, Coen

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the impact of different tabletops with or without a knee support on the position of the rectum, prostate, and bulb of the penis; and to evaluate the effect of these patient-positioning devices on treatment planning. Methods and materials: For 10 male volunteers, five MRI scans were made in four different positions: on a flat tabletop with knee support, on a flat tabletop without knee support, on a rounded tabletop with knee support, and on a rounded tabletop without knee support. The fifth scan was in the same position as the first. With image registration, the position differences of the rectum, prostate, and bulb of the penis were measured at several points in a sagittal plane through the central axis of the prostate. A planning target volume was generated from the delineated prostates with a margin of 10 mm in three dimensions. A three-field treatment plan with a prescribed dose of 78 Gy to the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements point was automatically generated from each planning target volume. Dose-volume histograms were calculated for all rectal walls. Results: The shape of the tabletop did not affect the rectum and prostate position. Addition of a knee support shifted the anterior and posterior rectal walls dorsally. For the anterior rectal wall, the maximum dorsal shift was 9.9 mm (standard error of the mean [SEM] 1.7 mm) at the top of the prostate. For the posterior rectal wall, the maximum dorsal shift was 10.2 mm (SEM 1.5 mm) at the middle of the prostate. Therefore, the rectal filling was pushed caudally when a knee support was added. The knee support caused a rotation of the prostate around the left-right axis at the apex (i.e., a dorsal rotation) by 5.6 deg (SEM 0.8 deg ) and shifts in the caudal and dorsal directions of 2.6 mm (SEM 0.4 cm) and 1.4 mm (SEM 0.6 mm), respectively. The position of the bulb of the penis was not influenced by the use of a knee support or rounded tabletop. The volume of the

  8. Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

    2007-09-01

    This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

  9. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  10. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  11. The effects of positive versus negative impact reflection on change in job performance and work-life conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardador, M Teresa

    2014-01-01

    Research on task significance and relational job design suggests that information from beneficiaries of one's work fosters perceptions of impact, and thus improved work outcomes. This paper presents results from a longitudinal field experiment examining the effect of another strategy for fostering perceptions of impact - engaging employees in regular reflection about how their work benefits others. With a sample of professionals from multiple organizations, this longitudinal study examined the effect on job performance and work-life conflict of both positive and negative impact reflection. Results show that negative impact reflection had a pronounced negative effect on job performance, but no effect on work-life conflict. Positive impact reflection had a weak positive effect on work-life conflict, but no significant effect on job performance. The direction of effects seen in the no intervention condition mirrored that of the negative impact reflection condition, suggesting a possible buffering effect for positive impact reflection. This research provides empirical and theoretical contributions to the literatures on relational job design and task significance.

  12. The distribution of wind power forecast errors from operational systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ela, Erik; Milligan, Michael

    2011-07-01

    Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for a single wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidence intervals. (orig.)

  13. Satellite remote sensing reveals a positive impact of living oyster reefs on microalgal biofilm development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Echappé

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite remote sensing (RS is routinely used for the large-scale monitoring of microphytobenthos (MPB biomass in intertidal mudflats and has greatly improved our knowledge of MPB spatio-temporal variability and its potential drivers. Processes operating on smaller scales however, such as the impact of benthic macrofauna on MPB development, to date remain underinvestigated. In this study, we analysed the influence of wild Crassostrea gigas oyster reefs on MPB biofilm development using multispectral RS. A 30-year time series (1985–2015 combining high-resolution (30 m Landsat and SPOT data was built in order to explore the relationship between C. gigas reefs and MPB spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics, using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI. Emphasis was placed on the analysis of a before–after control-impact (BACI experiment designed to assess the effect of oyster killing on the surrounding MPB biofilms. Our RS data reveal that the presence of oyster reefs positively affects MPB biofilm development. Analysis of the historical time series first showed the presence of persistent, highly concentrated MPB patches around oyster reefs. This observation was supported by the BACI experiment which showed that killing the oysters (while leaving the physical reef structure, i.e. oyster shells, intact negatively affected both MPB biofilm biomass and spatial stability around the reef. As such, our results are consistent with the hypothesis of nutrient input as an explanation for the MPB growth-promoting effect of oysters, whereby organic and inorganic matter released through oyster excretion and biodeposition stimulates MPB biomass accumulation. MPB also showed marked seasonal variations in biomass and patch shape, size and degree of aggregation around the oyster reefs. Seasonal variations in biomass, with higher NDVI during spring and autumn, were consistent with those observed on broader scales in other European mudflats. Our

  14. Satellite remote sensing reveals a positive impact of living oyster reefs on microalgal biofilm development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echappé, Caroline; Gernez, Pierre; Méléder, Vona; Jesus, Bruno; Cognie, Bruno; Decottignies, Priscilla; Sabbe, Koen; Barillé, Laurent

    2018-02-01

    Satellite remote sensing (RS) is routinely used for the large-scale monitoring of microphytobenthos (MPB) biomass in intertidal mudflats and has greatly improved our knowledge of MPB spatio-temporal variability and its potential drivers. Processes operating on smaller scales however, such as the impact of benthic macrofauna on MPB development, to date remain underinvestigated. In this study, we analysed the influence of wild Crassostrea gigas oyster reefs on MPB biofilm development using multispectral RS. A 30-year time series (1985-2015) combining high-resolution (30 m) Landsat and SPOT data was built in order to explore the relationship between C. gigas reefs and MPB spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics, using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Emphasis was placed on the analysis of a before-after control-impact (BACI) experiment designed to assess the effect of oyster killing on the surrounding MPB biofilms. Our RS data reveal that the presence of oyster reefs positively affects MPB biofilm development. Analysis of the historical time series first showed the presence of persistent, highly concentrated MPB patches around oyster reefs. This observation was supported by the BACI experiment which showed that killing the oysters (while leaving the physical reef structure, i.e. oyster shells, intact) negatively affected both MPB biofilm biomass and spatial stability around the reef. As such, our results are consistent with the hypothesis of nutrient input as an explanation for the MPB growth-promoting effect of oysters, whereby organic and inorganic matter released through oyster excretion and biodeposition stimulates MPB biomass accumulation. MPB also showed marked seasonal variations in biomass and patch shape, size and degree of aggregation around the oyster reefs. Seasonal variations in biomass, with higher NDVI during spring and autumn, were consistent with those observed on broader scales in other European mudflats. Our study provides the

  15. Type of mask may impact on continuous positive airway pressure adherence in apneic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borel, Jean Christian; Tamisier, Renaud; Dias-Domingos, Sonia; Sapene, Marc; Martin, Francis; Stach, Bruno; Grillet, Yves; Muir, Jean François; Levy, Patrick; Series, Frederic; Pepin, Jean-Louis

    2013-01-01

    In obstructive sleep apnea patients (OSA), continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence is crucial to improve symptoms and cardiometabolic outcomes. The choice of mask may influence CPAP adherence but this issue has never been addressed properly. To evaluate the impact of nasal pillows, nasal and oronasal masks on CPAP adherence in a cohort of OSA. Newly CPAP treated OSA participating in "Observatoire Sommeil de la Fédération de Pneumologie", a French national prospective cohort, were included between March 2009 and December 2011. Anthropometric data, medical history, OSA severity, sleepiness, depressive status, treatment modalities (auto-CPAP versus fixed pressure, pressure level, interface type, use of humidifiers) and CPAP-related side effects were included in multivariate analysis to determine independent variables associated with CPAP adherence. 2311 OSA (age = 57(12) years, apnea+hypopnea index = 41(21)/h, 29% female) were included. Nasal masks, oronasal masks and nasal pillows were used by 62.4, 26.2 and 11.4% of the patients, respectively. In univariate analysis, oronasal masks and nasal pillows were associated with higher risk of CPAP non-adherence. CPAP non-adherence was also associated with younger age, female gender, mild OSA, gastroesophageal reflux, depression status, low effective pressure and CPAP-related side effects. In multivariate analysis, CPAP non-adherence was associated with the use of oronasal masks (OR = 2.0; 95%CI = 1.6; 2.5), depression, low effective pressure, and side effects. As oronasal masks negatively impact on CPAP adherence, a nasal mask should be preferred as the first option. Patients on oronasal masks should be carefully followed.

  16. Type of mask may impact on continuous positive airway pressure adherence in apneic patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Christian Borel

    Full Text Available RATIONALE: In obstructive sleep apnea patients (OSA, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP adherence is crucial to improve symptoms and cardiometabolic outcomes. The choice of mask may influence CPAP adherence but this issue has never been addressed properly. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of nasal pillows, nasal and oronasal masks on CPAP adherence in a cohort of OSA. METHODS: Newly CPAP treated OSA participating in "Observatoire Sommeil de la Fédération de Pneumologie", a French national prospective cohort, were included between March 2009 and December 2011. Anthropometric data, medical history, OSA severity, sleepiness, depressive status, treatment modalities (auto-CPAP versus fixed pressure, pressure level, interface type, use of humidifiers and CPAP-related side effects were included in multivariate analysis to determine independent variables associated with CPAP adherence. RESULTS: 2311 OSA (age = 57(12 years, apnea+hypopnea index = 41(21/h, 29% female were included. Nasal masks, oronasal masks and nasal pillows were used by 62.4, 26.2 and 11.4% of the patients, respectively. In univariate analysis, oronasal masks and nasal pillows were associated with higher risk of CPAP non-adherence. CPAP non-adherence was also associated with younger age, female gender, mild OSA, gastroesophageal reflux, depression status, low effective pressure and CPAP-related side effects. In multivariate analysis, CPAP non-adherence was associated with the use of oronasal masks (OR = 2.0; 95%CI = 1.6; 2.5, depression, low effective pressure, and side effects. CONCLUSION: As oronasal masks negatively impact on CPAP adherence, a nasal mask should be preferred as the first option. Patients on oronasal masks should be carefully followed.

  17. Have a little faith: measuring the impact of illness on positive and negative aspects of faith.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsman, John M; Garcia, Sofia F; Lai, Jin-Shei; Cella, David

    2012-12-01

    The importance of faith and its associations with health are well documented. As part of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System, items tapping positive and negative impact of illness (PII and NII) were developed across four content domains: Coping/Stress Response, Self-Concept, Social Connection/Isolation, and Meaning and Spirituality. Faith items were included within the concept of meaning and spirituality. This measurement model was tested on a heterogeneous group of 509 cancer survivors. To evaluate dimensionality, we applied two bi-factor models, specifying a general factor (PII or NII) and four local factors: Coping/Stress Response, Self-Concept, Social Connection/Isolation, and Meaning and Spirituality. Bi-factor analysis supported sufficient unidimensionality within PII and NII item sets. The unidimensionality of both PII and NII item sets was enhanced by extraction of the faith items from the rest of the questions. Of the 10 faith items, nine demonstrated higher local than general factor loadings (range for local factor loadings = 0.402 to 0.876), suggesting utility as a separate but related 'faith' factor. The same was true for only two of the remaining 63 items across the PII and NII item sets. Although conceptually and to a degree empirically related to Meaning and Spirituality, Faith appears to be a distinct subdomain of PII and NII, better handled by distinct assessment. A 10-item measure of the impact of illness upon faith (II-Faith) was therefore assembled. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Three dimensional analysis of impacted maxillary third molars: A cone-beam computed tomographic study of the position and depth of impaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Andrade, Priscila Ferreira; Silva, Jesca Neftali Nogueira; Sotto-Maior, Bruno Sales; Devito, Karina Lopes; Assis, Neuza Maria Souza Picorelli [Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora (Brazil); Ribeiro, CleideGisele [Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences - SUPREMA, Juiz de Fora (Brazil)

    2017-09-15

    The classification of impacted maxillary third molars (IMTMs) facilitates interdisciplinary communication and helps estimate the degree of surgical difficulty. Thus, this study aimed to develop a 3-dimensional classification of the position and depth of impaction of IMTMs and to estimate their prevalence with respect to gender and age. This cross-sectional retrospective study analyzed images in sagittal and coronal cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) sections of 300 maxillary third molars. The proposed classification was based on 3 criteria: buccolingual position (buccal, lingual, or central), mesial-distal position (mesioangular, vertical, or distoangular), and depth of impaction (low, medium, or high). CBCT images of IMTMs were classified, and the associations of the classifications with gender and age were examined using analysis of variance with the Scheffé post-hoc test. To determine the associations among the 3 classifications, the chi-square test was used (P<.05). No significant association of the classifications with gender was observed. Age showed a significant relationship with depth of impaction (P=.0001) and mesial-distal position (P=.005). The most common positions were buccal (n=222), vertical (n=184), and low (n=124). Significant associations among the 3 tested classifications were observed. CBCT enabled the evaluation of IMTMs in a 3-dimensional format, and we developed a proposal for a new classification of the position and depth of impaction of IMTMs.

  19. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  20. The positive impact of a facilitated peer mentoring program on academic skills of women faculty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varkey Prathibha

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In academic medicine, women physicians lag behind their male counterparts in advancement and promotion to leadership positions. Lack of mentoring, among other factors, has been reported to contribute to this disparity. Peer mentoring has been reported as a successful alternative to the dyadic mentoring model for women interested in improving their academic productivity. We describe a facilitated peer mentoring program in our institution's department of medicine. Methods Nineteen women enrolled in the program were divided into 5 groups. Each group had an assigned facilitator. Members of the respective groups met together with their facilitators at regular intervals during the 12 months of the project. A pre- and post-program evaluation consisting of a 25-item self-assessment of academic skills, self-efficacy, and academic career satisfaction was administered to each participant. Results At the end of 12 months, a total of 9 manuscripts were submitted to peer-reviewed journals, 6 of which are in press or have been published, and another 2 of which have been invited to be revised and resubmitted. At the end of the program, participants reported an increase in their satisfaction with academic achievement (mean score increase, 2.32 to 3.63; P = 0.0001, improvement in skills necessary to effectively search the medical literature (mean score increase, 3.32 to 4.05; P = 0.0009, an improvement in their ability to write a comprehensive review article (mean score increase, 2.89 to 3.63; P = 0.0017, and an improvement in their ability to critically evaluate the medical literature (mean score increased from 3.11 to 3.89; P = 0.0008. Conclusions This facilitated peer mentoring program demonstrated a positive impact on the academic skills and manuscript writing for junior women faculty. This 1-year program required minimal institutional resources, and suggests a need for further study of this and other mentoring programs for women faculty.

  1. The positive impact of a facilitated peer mentoring program on academic skills of women faculty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varkey, Prathibha; Jatoi, Aminah; Williams, Amy; Mayer, Anita; Ko, Marcia; Files, Julia; Blair, Janis; Hayes, Sharonne

    2012-03-23

    In academic medicine, women physicians lag behind their male counterparts in advancement and promotion to leadership positions. Lack of mentoring, among other factors, has been reported to contribute to this disparity. Peer mentoring has been reported as a successful alternative to the dyadic mentoring model for women interested in improving their academic productivity. We describe a facilitated peer mentoring program in our institution's department of medicine. Nineteen women enrolled in the program were divided into 5 groups. Each group had an assigned facilitator. Members of the respective groups met together with their facilitators at regular intervals during the 12 months of the project. A pre- and post-program evaluation consisting of a 25-item self-assessment of academic skills, self-efficacy, and academic career satisfaction was administered to each participant. At the end of 12 months, a total of 9 manuscripts were submitted to peer-reviewed journals, 6 of which are in press or have been published, and another 2 of which have been invited to be revised and resubmitted. At the end of the program, participants reported an increase in their satisfaction with academic achievement (mean score increase, 2.32 to 3.63; P = 0.0001), improvement in skills necessary to effectively search the medical literature (mean score increase, 3.32 to 4.05; P = 0.0009), an improvement in their ability to write a comprehensive review article (mean score increase, 2.89 to 3.63; P = 0.0017), and an improvement in their ability to critically evaluate the medical literature (mean score increased from 3.11 to 3.89; P = 0.0008). This facilitated peer mentoring program demonstrated a positive impact on the academic skills and manuscript writing for junior women faculty. This 1-year program required minimal institutional resources, and suggests a need for further study of this and other mentoring programs for women faculty.

  2. The Impact of Childhood Bullying among HIV-Positive Men: Psychosocial Correlates and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamen, Charles; Bergstrom, Jessica; Vorasarun, Chaniga; Mardini, Mona; Patrick, Rudy; Lee, Susanne; Lazar, Rachael; Koopman, Cheryl; Gore-Felton, Cheryl

    2012-01-01

    Objectives While some studies have examined the deleterious effects of childhood bullying on adults, no studies to date have focused on the effects of bullying on Persons Living with HIV (PLH), a particularly at-risk population. PLH experience higher rates of childhood and adulthood physical and sexual abuse than the population at large, and experience of childhood abuse appears to be predictive of sexual and other risk behaviors in this population. Thus it remains critical to examine rates of childhood bullying and correlates of bullying in adult PLH. Methods A sample of 171 HIV-positive men over 18 years of age were recruited from the San Francisco Bay Area. All participants reported experiencing symptoms of traumatic stress. The participants were recruited as part of a larger study assessing a group intervention for individuals with HIV and symptoms of trauma. Self-report questionnaires were administered to assess participants’ exposure to bullying in childhood and trauma symptoms in adulthood. Results Bullying was commonly reported by men in the current sample, with 91% of the sample endorsing having experienced some level of bullying before age 18. Having been bullied in childhood was significantly (p bullying in childhood predicted additional, unique variance in trauma symptoms in adulthood above and beyond the effect of exposure to other forms of trauma, resulting in a better-fitting model. Conclusions The current study highlights the association between rate of childhood bullying and symptoms of trauma in adulthood, accounting for the effect of exposure to other forms of trauma. Given the impact of trauma symptoms on disease progression in PLH, exposure to bullying must be considered in any intervention aiming to reduce trauma symptoms or improve mental or physical health among HIV-positive populations. PMID:23294606

  3. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model for GABLS3: Impact of boundary-layer schemes, boundary conditions and spin-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleczek, M.A.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX

  4. Interfraction Liver Shape Variability and Impact on GTV Position During Liver Stereotactic Radiotherapy Using Abdominal Compression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eccles, Cynthia L.; Dawson, Laura A.; Moseley, Joanne L.; Brock, Kristy K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: For patients receiving liver stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), abdominal compression can reduce organ motion, and daily image guidance can reduce setup error. The reproducibility of liver shape under compression may impact treatment delivery accuracy. The purpose of this study was to measure the interfractional variability in liver shape under compression, after best-fit rigid liver-to-liver registration from kilovoltage (kV) cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans to planning computed tomography (CT) scans and its impact on gross tumor volume (GTV) position. Methods and Materials: Evaluable patients were treated in a Research Ethics Board-approved SBRT six-fraction study with abdominal compression. Kilovoltage CBCT scans were acquired before treatment and reconstructed as respiratory sorted CBCT scans offline. Manual rigid liver-to-liver registrations were performed from exhale-phase CBCT scans to exhale planning CT scans. Each CBCT liver was contoured, exported, and compared with the planning CT scan for spatial differences, by use of in house-developed finite-element model-based deformable registration (MORFEUS). Results: We evaluated 83 CBCT scans from 16 patients with 30 GTVs. The mean volume of liver that deformed by greater than 3 mm was 21.7%. Excluding 1 outlier, the maximum volume that deformed by greater than 3 mm was 36.3% in a single patient. Over all patients, the absolute maximum deformations in the left-right (LR), anterior-posterior (AP), and superior-inferior directions were 10.5 mm (SD, 2.2), 12.9 mm (SD, 3.6), and 5.6 mm (SD, 2.7), respectively. The absolute mean predicted impact of liver volume displacements on GTV by use of center of mass displacements was 0.09 mm (SD, 0.13), 0.13 mm (SD, 0.18), and 0.08 mm (SD, 0.07) in the left-right, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior directions, respectively. Conclusions: Interfraction liver deformations in patients undergoing SBRT under abdominal compression after rigid liver

  5. Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. S.; Lisk, I.

    2015-12-01

    Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management. London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the 'VAAC Best Practice' Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.

  6. Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

    2017-12-01

    The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the

  7. The creation of special economic zones in China: Positive and negative impacts in its implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Orozco Plascencia

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available At the end of seventies, Deng Xioaping, President applied a modernization policy in China, that during more than 30 years allow to reach high economic growth rates above 8% average per year. This reform included the instauration of four Special Economic Zones (SEZ in the southeast of the country, three in Guangdong (Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantao and one in Xiamen, Fujian.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the backgrounds of SEZ, the reasons of Chinese Government to implement its and the positive impacts and barriers to become operational.The conclusion in this article is that sez arise like an experiment of the Chinese central government economic policy to apply capitalist measures in design previous regions, the most important benefit has been the strong attraction of Foreing Direct Investment, explained in a surplus trade balance, sustanaible economic growht and technological transference. However, the most significative operational barrier has been the legal rigidity in the imported overseas products, a change of nacional politicideology system and problem asociated with burocracy and corruption.

  8. Adaptation to the waste anesthesia gas system: Gaps in knowledge and opportunities for positive environmental impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Palmisano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Canisters containing activated charcoal are commonly used in the laboratory setting to collect waste anesthetic gas (WAG. This requires the weighing of the WAG canister after each use and for investigators to maintain an accurate time log of anesthesia duration. A typical rodent anesthesia station may include the use of 3 WAG canisters; one for the anesthesia induction box, one for the operative table, and one for gas monitoring. To simplify the anesthesia breathing circuit, we have developed a “T” connector that replaces the need for having multiple WAG canisters. The “T” connector directs the waste anesthetic from multiple sources; the anesthesia induction box, operative table and gas monitor into a single WAG canister. Use of the “T” connector appears to be a safe, acceptable device that conveniently directs waste gas while improving charcoal adsorption within the canister. In addition, this device may have a positive impact on the environment with a secondary benefit of possible cost savings associated with the purchase and disposal of the hazardous waste contents.

  9. Positive and Negative Impacts of Cross-border M&A

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    裴长洪; 林江

    2007-01-01

    Mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises by foreign investors have moved onto the public radar in recent years.To date,the M&A frenzy has drawn widespread attention,with a mixed reaction from proponents and opponents.Proponents consider such mergers and acquisitions conducive to realizing strategic readjustment of the national economic structure,optimizing resource allocation and improving the corporate governance structure.Opponents,however,are concerned that foreign mergers and acquisitions may jeopardize China’s industrial security and erode the executive power of the central government in undertaking industrial development planning.Are the benefits of M&A outweighed by the costs,or vice versa? The focus column of this edition features two articles which debate this issue from opposing viewpoints.In the article"Positive and Negative Impacts of Cross-border M&A",the authors consider foreign M(?)A to be a new way of boosting the level of foreign investment utilization,and advocate China taking full advantage of this approach.The authors of the article"Self-Improvement Or Self-Mutilation",meanwhile,hold foreign M&A to blame for state-owned asset erosion,and insist that China should oppose mergers and acquisitions of key state- owned enterprises by foreign investors at fire-sale prices.

  10. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  11. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  12. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-01-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  13. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  14. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  15. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  16. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  17. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  18. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  19. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  20. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as