WorldWideScience

Sample records for portfolio selection problem

  1. Two-Stage Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Transaction Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yanju; Wang, Ye

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies a two-period portfolio selection problem. The problem is formulated as a two-stage fuzzy portfolio selection model with transaction costs, in which the future returns of risky security are characterized by possibility distributions. The objective of the proposed model is to achieve the maximum utility in terms of the expected value and variance of the final wealth. Given the first-stage decision vector and a realization of fuzzy return, the optimal value expression of the s...

  2. Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Different Borrowing and Lending Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Wei; Yang, Yiping; Ma, Hui

    2011-01-01

    As we know, borrowing and lending risk-free assets arise extensively in the theory and practice of finance. However, little study has ever investigated them in fuzzy portfolio problem. In this paper, the returns of each assets are assumed to be fuzzy variables, then following the mean-variance approach, a new possibilistic portfolio selection model with different interest rates for borrowing and lending is proposed, in which the possibilistic semiabsolute deviation of the return is used to...

  3. Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.

    2010-01-01

    In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or a savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations.

  4. Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.

    2009-01-01

    In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations. The

  5. Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Different Borrowing and Lending Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Chen

    2011-01-01

    the returns of each assets are assumed to be fuzzy variables, then following the mean-variance approach, a new possibilistic portfolio selection model with different interest rates for borrowing and lending is proposed, in which the possibilistic semiabsolute deviation of the return is used to measure investment risk. The conventional probabilistic mean variance model can be transformed to a linear programming problem under possibility distributions. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modeling idea and the impact of borrowing and lending on optimal decision making.

  6. Two-Stage Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Transaction Costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanju Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a two-period portfolio selection problem. The problem is formulated as a two-stage fuzzy portfolio selection model with transaction costs, in which the future returns of risky security are characterized by possibility distributions. The objective of the proposed model is to achieve the maximum utility in terms of the expected value and variance of the final wealth. Given the first-stage decision vector and a realization of fuzzy return, the optimal value expression of the second-stage programming problem is derived. As a result, the proposed two-stage model is equivalent to a single-stage model, and the analytical optimal solution of the two-stage model is obtained, which helps us to discuss the properties of the optimal solution. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed to demonstrate the new modeling idea and the effectiveness. The computational results provided by the proposed model show that the more risk-averse investor will invest more wealth in the risk-free security. They also show that the optimal invested amount in risky security increases as the risk-free return decreases and the optimal utility increases as the risk-free return increases, whereas the optimal utility increases as the transaction costs decrease. In most instances the utilities provided by the proposed two-stage model are larger than those provided by the single-stage model.

  7. A Multiagent Evolutionary Algorithm for the Resource-Constrained Project Portfolio Selection and Scheduling Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongyi Shou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A multiagent evolutionary algorithm is proposed to solve the resource-constrained project portfolio selection and scheduling problem. The proposed algorithm has a dual level structure. In the upper level a set of agents make decisions to select appropriate project portfolios. Each agent selects its project portfolio independently. The neighborhood competition operator and self-learning operator are designed to improve the agent’s energy, that is, the portfolio profit. In the lower level the selected projects are scheduled simultaneously and completion times are computed to estimate the expected portfolio profit. A priority rule-based heuristic is used by each agent to solve the multiproject scheduling problem. A set of instances were generated systematically from the widely used Patterson set. Computational experiments confirmed that the proposed evolutionary algorithm is effective for the resource-constrained project portfolio selection and scheduling problem.

  8. The admissible portfolio selection problem with transaction costs and an improved PSO algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Zhang, Wei-Guo

    2010-05-01

    In this paper, we discuss the portfolio selection problem with transaction costs under the assumption that there exist admissible errors on expected returns and risks of assets. We propose a new admissible efficient portfolio selection model and design an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm because traditional optimization algorithms fail to work efficiently for our proposed problem. Finally, we offer a numerical example to illustrate the proposed effective approaches and compare the admissible portfolio efficient frontiers under different constraints.

  9. Construction of uncertainty sets for portfolio selection problems

    OpenAIRE

    Wiechers, Christof

    2011-01-01

    While modern portfolio theory grounds on the trade-off between portfolio return and portfolio variance to determine the optimal investment decision, postmodern portfolio theory uses downside risk measures instead of the variance. Prominent examples are given by the risk measures Value-at-Risk and its coherent extension, Conditional Value-at-Risk. When avoiding distributional assumptions on the process that generates the risky assets' returns, historical return data or expert knowledge remain ...

  10. A behavioural approach to financial portfolio selection problem: an empirical study using heuristics

    OpenAIRE

    Grishina, Nina

    2014-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University The behaviourally based portfolio selection problem with investor's loss aversion and risk aversion biases in portfolio choice under uncertainty are studied. The main results of this work are developed heuristic approaches for the prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory models proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 and 1992 as well as an empirical comparative analysis of these models ...

  11. Reliable Portfolio Selection Problem in Fuzzy Environment: An mλ Measure Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Feng

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a fuzzy portfolio selection problem with guaranteed reliability, in which the fuzzy variables are used to capture the uncertain returns of different securities. To effectively handle the fuzziness in a mathematical way, a new expected value operator and variance of fuzzy variables are defined based on the m λ measure that is a linear combination of the possibility measure and necessity measure to balance the pessimism and optimism in the decision-making process. To formulate the reliable portfolio selection problem, we particularly adopt the expected total return and standard variance of the total return to evaluate the reliability of the investment strategies, producing three risk-guaranteed reliable portfolio selection models. To solve the proposed models, an effective genetic algorithm is designed to generate the approximate optimal solution to the considered problem. Finally, the numerical examples are given to show the performance of the proposed models and algorithm.

  12. Fuzzy Random λ-Mean SAD Portfolio Selection Problem: An Ant Colony Optimization Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Gour Sundar Mitra; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Mitra, Swapan Kumar

    2010-10-01

    To reach the investment goal, one has to select a combination of securities among different portfolios containing large number of securities. Only the past records of each security do not guarantee the future return. As there are many uncertain factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market and there are also some newer stock markets which do not have enough historical data, experts' expectation and experience must be combined with the past records to generate an effective portfolio selection model. In this paper the return of security is assumed to be Fuzzy Random Variable Set (FRVS), where returns are set of random numbers which are in turn fuzzy numbers. A new λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) portfolio selection model is developed. The subjective opinions of the investors to the rate of returns of each security are taken into consideration by introducing a pessimistic-optimistic parameter vector λ. λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) model is preferred as it follows absolute deviation of the rate of returns of a portfolio instead of the variance as the measure of the risk. As this model can be reduced to Linear Programming Problem (LPP) it can be solved much faster than quadratic programming problems. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is used for solving the portfolio selection problem. ACO is a paradigm for designing meta-heuristic algorithms for combinatorial optimization problem. Data from BSE is used for illustration.

  13. Comonotonic approximations for a generalized provisioning problem with application to optimal portfolio selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we discuss multiperiod portfolio selection problems related to a specific provisioning problem. Our results are an extension of Dhaene et al. (2005) [14], where optimal constant mix investment strategies are obtained in a provisioning and savings context, using an analytical approach

  14. Risk-Controlled Multiobjective Portfolio Selection Problem Using a Principle of Compromise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Hasuike

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a multiobjective portfolio selection problem with most probable random distribution derived from current market data and other random distributions of boom and recession under the risk-controlled parameters determined by an investor. The current market data and information include not only historical data but also interpretations of economists’ oral and linguistic information, and hence, the boom and recession are often caused by these nonnumeric data. Therefore, investors need to consider several situations from most probable condition to boom and recession and to avoid the risk less than the target return in each situation. Furthermore, it is generally difficult to set random distributions of these cases exactly. Therefore, a robust-based approach for portfolio selection problems using the only mean values and variances of securities is proposed as a multiobjective programming problem. In addition, an exact algorithm is developed to obtain an explicit optimal portfolio using a principle of compromise.

  15. Portfolio selection problem with liquidity constraints under non-extensive statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Pan; Xiao, Qingxian

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem with liquidity limits. A portfolio selection model is proposed in which the risky asset price is driven by the process based on non-extensive statistical mechanics instead of the classic Wiener process. Using dynamic programming and Lagrange multiplier methods, we obtain the optimal policy and value function. Moreover, the numerical results indicate that this model is considerably different from the model based on the classic Wiener process, the optimal strategy is affected by the non-extensive parameter q, the increase in the investment in the risky asset is faster at a larger parameter q and the increase in wealth is similar.

  16. Portfolio selection problem: a comparison of fuzzy goal programming and linear physical programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fusun Kucukbay

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Investors have limited budget and they try to maximize their return with minimum risk. Therefore this study aims to deal with the portfolio selection problem. In the study two criteria are considered which are expected return, and risk. In this respect, linear physical programming (LPP technique is applied on Bist 100 stocks to be able to find out the optimum portfolio. The analysis covers the period April 2009- March 2015. This period is divided into two; April 2009-March 2014 and April 2014 – March 2015. April 2009-March 2014 period is used as data to find an optimal solution. April 2014-March 2015 period is used to test the real performance of portfolios. The performance of the obtained portfolio is compared with that obtained from fuzzy goal programming (FGP. Then the performances of both method, LPP and FGP are compared with BIST 100 in terms of their Sharpe Indexes. The findings reveal that LPP for portfolio selection problem is a good alternative to FGP.

  17. Risk-aware multi-armed bandit problem with application to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Xiaoguang; Fu, Feng

    2017-11-01

    Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interest in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem addresses the primary difficulty in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, namely the exploration versus exploitation dilemma, and therefore provides a natural connection to portfolio selection. In this paper, we incorporate risk awareness into the classic multi-armed bandit setting and introduce an algorithm to construct portfolio. Through filtering assets based on the topological structure of the financial market and combining the optimal multi-armed bandit policy with the minimization of a coherent risk measure, we achieve a balance between risk and return.

  18. A Generalized Measure for the Optimal Portfolio Selection Problem and its Explicit Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zinoviy Landsman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we offer a novel class of utility functions applied to optimal portfolio selection. This class incorporates as special cases important measures such as the mean-variance, Sharpe ratio, mean-standard deviation and others. We provide an explicit solution to the problem of optimal portfolio selection based on this class. Furthermore, we show that each measure in this class generally reduces to the efficient frontier that coincides or belongs to the classical mean-variance efficient frontier. In addition, a condition is provided for the existence of the a one-to-one correspondence between the parameter of this class of utility functions and the trade-off parameter λ in the mean-variance utility function. This correspondence essentially provides insight into the choice of this parameter. We illustrate our results by taking a portfolio of stocks from National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ.

  19. An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra

    2016-04-01

    Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.

  20. Time-Consistent Strategies for a Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiling Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It remained prevalent in the past years to obtain the precommitment strategies for Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio optimization problems, but not much is known about their time-consistent strategies. This paper takes a step to investigate the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategies for a multiperiod mean-variance portfolio selection problem. Under the assumption that the risk aversion is, respectively, a constant and a function of current wealth level, we obtain the explicit expressions for the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategy and the equilibrium value function. Many interesting properties of the time-consistent results are identified through numerical sensitivity analysis and by comparing them with the classical pre-commitment solutions.

  1. On the Computation of the Efficient Frontier of the Portfolio Selection Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Calvo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An easy-to-use procedure is presented for improving the ε-constraint method for computing the efficient frontier of the portfolio selection problem endowed with additional cardinality and semicontinuous variable constraints. The proposed method provides not only a numerical plotting of the frontier but also an analytical description of it, including the explicit equations of the arcs of parabola it comprises and the change points between them. This information is useful for performing a sensitivity analysis as well as for providing additional criteria to the investor in order to select an efficient portfolio. Computational results are provided to test the efficiency of the algorithm and to illustrate its applications. The procedure has been implemented in Mathematica.

  2. A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

    2009-11-01

    Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

  3. Solving portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots based on conditional-value-at-risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.

    2017-01-01

    Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.

  4. Robust portfolio selection under norm uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider the robust portfolio selection problem which has a data uncertainty described by the ( p , w $(p,w$ -norm in the objective function. We show that the robust formulation of this problem is equivalent to a linear optimization problem. Moreover, we present some numerical results concerning our robust portfolio selection problem.

  5. Feature selection for portfolio optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerring, Thomas Trier; Ross, Omri; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2016-01-01

    Most portfolio selection rules based on the sample mean and covariance matrix perform poorly out-of-sample. Moreover, there is a growing body of evidence that such optimization rules are not able to beat simple rules of thumb, such as 1/N. Parameter uncertainty has been identified as one major....... While most of the diversification benefits are preserved, the parameter estimation problem is alleviated. We conduct out-of-sample back-tests to show that in most cases different well-established portfolio selection rules applied on the reduced asset universe are able to improve alpha relative...

  6. Portfolio selection with heavy tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hyung, N.; Vries, de C.G.

    2007-01-01

    Consider the portfolio problem of choosing the mix between stocks and bonds under a downside risk constraint. Typically stock returns exhibit fatter tails than bonds corresponding to their greater downside risk. Downside risk criteria like the safety first criterion therefore often select corner

  7. Portfolio Selection with Jumps under Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Zhao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a continuous-time version of the mean-variance portfolio selection model with jumps under regime switching. The portfolio selection is proposed and analyzed for a market consisting of one bank account and multiple stocks. The random regime switching is assumed to be independent of the underlying Brownian motion and jump processes. A Markov chain modulated diffusion formulation is employed to model the problem.

  8. Portfolio selection using genetic algorithms | Yahaya | International ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, one of the nature-inspired evolutionary algorithms – a Genetic Algorithms (GA) was used in solving the portfolio selection problem (PSP). Based on a real dataset from a popular stock market, the performance of the algorithm in relation to those obtained from one of the popular quadratic programming (QP) ...

  9. Portfolio Selection with Heavy Tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Hyung (Namwon); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractConsider the portfolio problem of choosing the mix between stocks and bonds under a downside risk constraint. Typically stock returns exhibit fatter tails than bonds corresponding to their greater downside risk. Downside risk criteria like the safety first criterion therefore of ten

  10. Deformed exponentials and portfolio selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana Flávia P.; Guerreiro, Igor M.; Cavalcante, Charles Casimiro

    In this paper, we present a method for portfolio selection based on the consideration on deformed exponentials in order to generalize the methods based on the gaussianity of the returns in portfolio, such as the Markowitz model. The proposed method generalizes the idea of optimizing mean-variance and mean-divergence models and allows a more accurate behavior for situations where heavy-tails distributions are necessary to describe the returns in a given time instant, such as those observed in economic crises. Numerical results show the proposed method outperforms the Markowitz portfolio for the cumulated returns with a good convergence rate of the weights for the assets which are searched by means of a natural gradient algorithm.

  11. Learning to Select Supplier Portfolios for Service Supply Chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rui; Li, Jingfei; Wu, Shaoyu; Meng, Dabin

    2016-01-01

    The research on service supply chain has attracted more and more focus from both academia and industrial community. In a service supply chain, the selection of supplier portfolio is an important and difficult problem due to the fact that a supplier portfolio may include multiple suppliers from a variety of fields. To address this problem, we propose a novel supplier portfolio selection method based on a well known machine learning approach, i.e., Ranking Neural Network (RankNet). In the proposed method, we regard the problem of supplier portfolio selection as a ranking problem, which integrates a large scale of decision making features into a ranking neural network. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted, which demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed supplier portfolio selection model can be applied in a real corporation easily in the future.

  12. Multi-period fuzzy mean-semi variance portfolio selection problem with transaction cost and minimum transaction lots using genetic algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Barati

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-period models of portfolio selection have been developed in the literature with respect to certain assumptions. In this study, for the first time, the portfolio selection problem has been modeled based on mean-semi variance with transaction cost and minimum transaction lots considering functional constraints and fuzzy parameters. Functional constraints such as transaction cost and minimum transaction lots were included. In addition, the returns on assets parameters were considered as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. An efficient genetic algorithm (GA was designed, results were analyzed using numerical instances and sensitivity analysis were executed. In the numerical study, the problem was solved based on the presence or absence of each mode of constraints including transaction costs and minimum transaction lots. In addition, with the use of sensitivity analysis, the results of the model were presented with the variations of minimum expected rate of programming periods.

  13. An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts’ evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is ...

  14. Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JW Hearne

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available With a strong commercial incentive driving the increase in game ranching in Southern Africa the need has come for more advanced management tools. In this paper the potential of Portfolio Selection Theory to determine the optimal mix of species on game ranches is explored. Land, or the food it produces, is a resource available to invest. We consider species as investment choices. Each species has its own return and risk profile. The question arises as to what proportion of the resource available should be invested in each species. We show that if the objective is to minimise risk for a given return, then the problem is analogous to the Portfolio Selection Problem. The method is then implemented for a typical game ranch. We show that besides risk and return objectives, it is necessary to include an additional objective so as to ensure sufficient species to maintain the character of a game ranch. Some other points of difference from the classical Portfolio Selection problem are also highlighted and discussed.

  15. Uncertain Portfolio Selection with Background Risk and Liquidity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Zhai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses an uncertain portfolio selection problem with consideration of background risk and asset liquidity. In addition, the transaction costs are also considered. The security returns, background asset return, and asset liquidity are estimated by experienced experts instead of historical data. Regarding them as uncertain variables, a mean-risk model with background risk, liquidity, and transaction costs is proposed for portfolio selection and the crisp forms of the model are provided when security returns obey different uncertainty distributions. Moreover, for better understanding of the impact of background risk and liquidity on portfolio selection, some important theorems are proved. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the modeling idea.

  16. Optimal Portfolios in Wishart Models and Effects of Discrete Rebalancing on Portfolio Distribution and Strategy Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Zejing

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation is mainly devoted to the research of two problems - the continuous-time portfolio optimization in different Wishart models and the effects of discrete rebalancing on portfolio wealth distribution and optimal portfolio strategy.

  17. Portfolio Manager Selection – A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Within a delegated portfolio management setting, this paper presents a case study of how the manager selection process can be operationalized in practice. Investors have to pursue a thorough screening of potential portfolio managers in order to discover their quality, and this paper discusses how...

  18. IT Portfolio Selection and IT Synergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Woo Je

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three chapters. The primary objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to provide a methodological framework of IT (Information Technology) portfolio management, and (2) to identify the effect of IT synergy on IT portfolio selection of a firm. The first chapter presents a methodological framework for IT project…

  19. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Hui-qiang

    2014-01-01

    We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance effici...

  20. Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Jin; Song Qingshuo; Xu Jing; Zhang Jianfeng

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a “piecewise constant” form, reflecting a more practical perspective.

  1. Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States); Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk [City University of Hong Kong, Department of Mathematics (Hong Kong); Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn [Chongqing University, School of Economics and Business Administration (China); Zhang Jianfeng, E-mail: jianfenz@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States)

    2013-06-15

    In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.

  2. Fuzzy Investment Portfolio Selection Models Based on Interval Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haifeng Guo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs fuzzy set theory to solve the unintuitive problem of the Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio model and extend it to a fuzzy investment portfolio selection model. Our model establishes intervals for expected returns and risk preference, which can take into account investors' different investment appetite and thus can find the optimal resolution for each interval. In the empirical part, we test this model in Chinese stocks investment and find that this model can fulfill different kinds of investors’ objectives. Finally, investment risk can be decreased when we add investment limit to each stock in the portfolio, which indicates our model is useful in practice.

  3. Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

    2015-01-01

    The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

  4. Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Shinzato

    Full Text Available The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

  5. An Extensive Evaluation of Portfolio Approaches for Constraint Satisfaction Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Amadini

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of Constraint Programming, a portfolio approach exploits the complementary strengths of a portfolio of different constraint solvers. The goal is to predict and run the best solver(s of the portfolio for solving a new, unseen problem. In this work we reproduce, simulate, and evaluate the performance of different portfolio approaches on extensive benchmarks of Constraint Satisfaction Problems. Empirical results clearly show the benefits of portfolio solvers in terms of both solved instances and solving time.

  6. A Maximum Entropy Method for a Robust Portfolio Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a continuous maximum entropy method to investigate the robustoptimal portfolio selection problem for the market with transaction costs and dividends.This robust model aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return in the case that allof asset returns lie within some prescribed intervals. A numerical optimal solution tothe problem is obtained by using a continuous maximum entropy method. Furthermore,some numerical experiments indicate that the robust model in this paper can result in betterportfolio performance than a classical mean-variance model.

  7. PROJECT PORTFOLIO SELECTION COMPETENCES RESEARCH INUNIVERSITIES OF LITHUANIA

    OpenAIRE

    R #363;ta #268;iutien #279;; Evelina Meilien #279;; Bronius Neverauskas

    2011-01-01

    As a result of the theoretical findings, the paperdemonstrates that projectportfolio selection is crucial project management problem. Successful ProjectPortfolio management requires specific competences.Every project of projectportfolio must be evaluated according to the basedcriteria and parameters.Empirical study was based on framework matrix withfour parameters of projectportfolio selection and only two phases of projectportfolio formation. The r...

  8. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Stochastic Salary for a Defined Contribution Pension Scheme: A Stochastic Linear-Quadratic-Exponential Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Nkeki

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines a mean-variance portfolio selection problem with stochastic salary and inflation protection strategy in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution (DC pension plan. The utility function is assumed to be quadratic. It was assumed that the flow of contributions made by the PPM are invested into a market that is characterized by a cash account, an inflation-linked bond and a stock. In this paper, inflationlinked bond is traded and used to hedge inflation risks associated with the investment. The aim of this paper is to maximize the expected final wealth and minimize its variance. Efficient frontier for the three classes of assets (under quadratic utility function that will enable pension plan members (PPMs to decide their own wealth and risk in their investment profile at retirement was obtained.

  9. An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  10. Volatility forecasting for low-volatility portfolio selection in the US and the Korean equity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Saejoon

    2018-01-01

    We consider the problem of low-volatility portfolio selection which has been the subject of extensive research in the field of portfolio selection. To improve the currently existing techniques that rely purely on past information to select low-volatility portfolios, this paper investigates the use of time series regression techniques that make forecasts of future volatility to select the portfolios. In particular, for the first time, the utility of support vector regression and its enhancements as portfolio selection techniques is provided. It is shown that our regression-based portfolio selection provides attractive outperformances compared to the benchmark index and the portfolio defined by a well-known strategy on the data-sets of the S&P 500 and the KOSPI 200.

  11. Optimal consumption—portfolio problem with CVaR constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qingye; Gao, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The optimal portfolio selection is a fundamental issue in finance, and its two most important ingredients are risk and return. Merton's pioneering work in dynamic portfolio selection emphasized only the expected utility of the consumption and the terminal wealth. To make the optimal portfolio strategy be achievable, risk control over bankruptcy during the investment horizon is an indispensable ingredient. So, in this paper, we consider the consumption-portfolio problem coupled with a dynamic risk control. More specifically, different from the existing literature, we impose a dynamic relative CVaR constraint on it. By the stochastic dynamic programming techniques, we derive the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. Moreover, by the Lagrange multiplier method, the closed form solution is provided when the utility function is a logarithmic one. At last, an illustrative empirical study is given. The results show the distinct difference of the portfolio strategies with and without the CVaR constraints: the proportion invested in the risky assets is reduced over time with CVaR constraint instead of being constant without CVaR constraints. This can provide a good decision-making reference for the investors.

  12. Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2004-06-01

    The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model

  13. Portfolio Selection Using Level Crossing Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Shirazi, A. H.; Jafari, G. R.

    Asset allocation is one of the most important and also challenging issues in finance. In this paper using level crossing analysis we introduce a new approach for portfolio selection. We introduce a portfolio index that is obtained based on minimizing the waiting time to receive known return and risk values. By the waiting time, we mean time that a special level is observed in average. The advantage of this approach is that the investors are able to set their goals based on gaining return and knowing the average waiting time and risk value at the same time. As an example we use our model for forming portfolio of stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

  14. Comparison of Portfolio Selection and Performance: Shari’ah-Compliant and Socially Responsible Investment Portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Asutay

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of Islamic screening criteria on Shari’ah-compliant portfolio selection and performance compared to Socially Responsible Investment (SRI portfolio. Each portfolio constructed from 15 stocks based on FTSE 100 using data from year 1997. Mean-variance portfolio optimization is employed with some financial ratios added as constraints for the Shari’ah portfolio. Annual expected return of each portfolio from 2008 to 2013 is used to calculate Sharpe’s ratio, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha as the performance measurement tools. Macroeconomic variables are assessed using ordinary least square to examine whether they influence the portfolios’ expected returns or not. The result finds that Shari’ah portfolio has a better performance than SRI from year 2008 to 2010 shown by higher value of the measurement tools. However, from 2011 to 2013, SRI portfolio has better performance than Shari’ah portfolio

  15. Selecting Large Portfolios of Social Projects in Public Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Litvinchev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the portfolio selection of social projects in public organizations considering interdependencies (synergies affecting project funds requirements and tasks. A mixed integer linear programming model is proposed incorporating the most relevant aspects of the problem found in the literature. The model supports both complete (all or nothing and partial (a certain amount from a given interval of funding resource allocation policies. Numerical results for large-scale problem instances are presented.

  16. Selection of a portfolio of R & D projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Casault, Sébastien; Groen, Arend J.; Linton, J.D.; Linton, Jonathan; Link, A.N.; Vonortas, N.S.

    2013-01-01

    While portfolios of research are increasingly discussed, a portfolio perspective is infrequently taken when selecting two or more projects. Consequently, this chapter considers the current state of knowledge in project and portfolio selection, identifies why we can and cannot apply knowledge from

  17. Parametric Portfolio Selection: Evaluating and Comparing to Markowitz Portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo C. Medeiros

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we exploit the parametric portfolio optimization in the Brazilian market. Our data consists of monthly returns of 306 Brazilian stocks in the period between 2001 and 2013. We tested the model both in and out of sample and compared the results with the value and equal weighted portfolios and with a Markowitz based portfolio. We performed statistical inference in the parametric optimization using bootstrap techniques in order to build the parameters empirical distributions. Our results showed that the parametric optimization is a very efficient technique out of sample. It consistently showed superior results when compared with the VW, EW and Markowitz portfolios even when transaction costs were included. Finally, we consider the parametric approach to be very flexible to the inclusion of constraints in weights, transaction costs and listing and delisting of stocks.

  18. Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

    2015-10-01

    In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

  19. Log-Optimal Portfolio Selection Using the Blackwell Approachability Theorem

    OpenAIRE

    V'yugin, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    We present a method for constructing the log-optimal portfolio using the well-calibrated forecasts of market values. Dawid's notion of calibration and the Blackwell approachability theorem are used for computing well-calibrated forecasts. We select a portfolio using this "artificial" probability distribution of market values. Our portfolio performs asymptotically at least as well as any stationary portfolio that redistributes the investment at each round using a continuous function of side in...

  20. On the microeconomic problems studied by portfolio theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikonov, Oleg; Medvedeva, Marina

    2012-09-01

    In the paper we consider economically motivated problems, which are treated with the help of methods of portfolio theory that goes back to the papers by H. Markowitz [1] and J. Tobin [2]. We show that the portfolio theory initially developed for risky securities (stocks) could be applied to other objects. In the present paper we consider several situations where such an application is reasonable and seems to be fruitful. Namely, we consider the problems of constructing the efficient portfolio of banking services and the portfolio of counteragents of a firm.

  1. Comparison of Optimal Portfolios Selected by Multicriterial Model Using Absolute and Relative Criteria Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Marasović

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.

  2. Portfolios with fuzzy returns: Selection strategies based on semi-infinite programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercher, Enriqueta

    2008-08-01

    This paper provides new models for portfolio selection in which the returns on securities are considered fuzzy numbers rather than random variables. The investor's problem is to find the portfolio that minimizes the risk of achieving a return that is not less than the return of a riskless asset. The corresponding optimal portfolio is derived using semi-infinite programming in a soft framework. The return on each asset and their membership functions are described using historical data. The investment risk is approximated by mean intervals which evaluate the downside risk for a given fuzzy portfolio. This approach is illustrated with a numerical example.

  3. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zhiyong

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right

  4. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Zhiyong, E-mail: yuzhiyong@sdu.edu.cn [Shandong University, School of Mathematics (China)

    2013-12-15

    This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right.

  5. Automatic Trading Agent. RMT Based Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snarska, M.; Krzych, J.

    2006-11-01

    Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, arosen from lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this tool is not known and not widely used among investors on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main reason for abandoning this method is a high level of complexity and immense calculations. The aim of this paper is to introduce an automatic decision-making system, which allows a single investor to use complex methods of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The key tool in MPT is an analysis of an empirical covariance matrix. This matrix, obtained from historical data, biased by such a high amount of statistical uncertainty, that it can be seen as random. By bringing into practice the ideas of Random Matrix Theory (RMT), the noise is removed or significantly reduced, so the future risk and return are better estimated and controlled. These concepts are applied to the Warsaw Stock Exchange Simulator {http://gra.onet.pl}. The result of the simulation is 18% level of gains in comparison with respective 10% loss of the Warsaw Stock Exchange main index WIG.

  6. Behavioral optimization models for multicriteria portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehlawat Mukesh Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, behavioral construct of suitability is used to develop a multicriteria decision making framework for portfolio selection. To achieve this purpose, we rely on multiple methodologies. Analytical hierarchy process technique is used to model the suitability considerations with a view to obtaining the suitability performance score in respect of each asset. A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is used to obtain the financial quality score of each asset based upon investor's rating on the financial criteria. Two optimization models are developed for optimal asset allocation considering simultaneously financial and suitability criteria. An empirical study is conducted on randomly selected assets from National Stock Exchange, Mumbai, India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  7. Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management | Hearne | ORiON

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management. ... Abstract. With a strong commercial incentive driving the increase in game ranching in Southern Africa the need has come for more advanced management tools. ... Keywords: Portfolio selection, multi-objective optimisation, game ranching, wildlife management.

  8. Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints().

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000.

  9. Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

    2012-01-01

    We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000. PMID:23293404

  10. Portfolio Selection Based on Distance between Fuzzy Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyi Qian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper researches portfolio selection problem in fuzzy environment. We introduce a new simple method in which the distance between fuzzy variables is used to measure the divergence of fuzzy investment return from a prior one. Firstly, two new mathematical models are proposed by expressing divergence as distance, investment return as expected value, and risk as variance and semivariance, respectively. Secondly, the crisp forms of the new models are also provided for different types of fuzzy variables. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  11. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Margin Requirements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection problem in the situation when investors must pay margin for short selling. The problem is essentially a nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem because the coefficients of positive and negative parts of control variables are different. We can not apply the results of stochastic linearquadratic (LQ problem. Also the solution of corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation is not smooth. Li et al. (2002 studied the case when short selling is prohibited; therefore they only need to consider the positive part of control variables, whereas we need to handle both the positive part and the negative part of control variables. The main difficulty is that the positive part and the negative part are not independent. The previous results are not directly applicable. By decomposing the problem into several subproblems we figure out the solutions of HJB equation in two disjoint regions and then prove it is the viscosity solution of HJB equation. Finally we formulate solution of optimal portfolio and the efficient frontier. We also present two examples showing how different margin rates affect the optimal solutions and the efficient frontier.

  12. Maximizing Consensus in Portfolio Selection in Multicriteria Group Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michael, Emmerich T. M.; Deutz, A.H.; Li, L.; Asep, Maulana A.; Yevseyeva, I.

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with a scenario of decision making where a moderator selects a (sub)set (aka portfolio) of decision alternatives from a larger set. The larger the number of decision makers who agree on a solution in the portfolio the more successful the moderator is. We assume that decision makers

  13. Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

    2017-01-01

    A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

  14. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-qiang Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance efficient frontier analytically. The results show that the mean-variance efficient frontier is still a parabola in the mean-variance plane, and the optimal strategies depend not only on the total wealth but also on the stock price. Moreover, some numerical examples are given to analyze the sensitivity of the efficient frontier with respect to the elasticity parameter and to illustrate the results presented in this paper. The numerical results show that the price of risk decreases as the elasticity coefficient increases.

  15. Mean-variance portfolio selection for defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chubing

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.

  16. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chubing Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.

  17. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary

    OpenAIRE

    Chubing Zhang

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.

  18. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chubing

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier. PMID:24782667

  19. A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh

    2007-01-01

    We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.

  20. Firefly Algorithm for Cardinality Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Problem with Entropy Diversity Constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results. PMID:24991645

  1. Firefly algorithm for cardinality constrained mean-variance portfolio optimization problem with entropy diversity constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacanin, Nebojsa; Tuba, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.

  2. Credit Portfolio Selection According to Sectors in Risky Environments: Markowitz Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Halim Kazan; Kültigin Uludag

    2014-01-01

    In this study, it was researched that how the rate of repayment of loans will be increased and how the credit risk will be minimized in banking sector, by using Markowitz Portfolio Theory. Construction, textile and wholesale and retail sectors were examined under the central bank data. Portfolio groups were selected and risks( variances of Portfolio groups) were evaluated according to Markowitz portfolio theory. Markowitz portfolio theory is effective than the other portfolio selection instru...

  3. Developing a framework for energy technology portfolio selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davoudpour, Hamid; Ashrafi, Maryam

    2012-11-01

    Today, the increased consumption of energy in world, in addition to the risk of quick exhaustion of fossil resources, has forced industrial firms and organizations to utilize energy technology portfolio management tools viewed both as a process of diversification of energy sources and optimal use of available energy sources. Furthermore, the rapid development of technologies, their increasing complexity and variety, and market dynamics have made the task of technology portfolio selection difficult. Considering high level of competitiveness, organizations need to strategically allocate their limited resources to the best subset of possible candidates. This paper presents the results of developing a mathematical model for energy technology portfolio selection at a R&D center maximizing support of the organization's strategy and values. The model balances the cost and benefit of the entire portfolio.

  4. Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Theron and Van den Honert (2003) dealt with issues of risk and return in an agricultural context. ... By repeatedly solving (1) with different specified values of R an efficient frontier of portfolio .... the built–in solver of Microsoft® Excel [2].

  5. A Polynomial Optimization Approach to Constant Rebalanced Portfolio Selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takano, Y.; Sotirov, R.

    2010-01-01

    We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on

  6. A polynomial optimization approach to constant rebalanced portfolio selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takano, Y.; Sotirov, R.

    2012-01-01

    We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on

  7. Maslow Portfolio Selection for Individuals with Low Financial Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongxin Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we extend Maslow’s need hierarchy theory and the two-level optimization approach by developing the framework of the Maslow portfolio selection model (MPSM by solving the two optimization problems to meet the need of individuals with low financial sustainability who prefer to satisfy their lower-level (safety need first, and, thereafter, look for higher-level (self-actualization need to maximize the optimal return. We illustrate our proposed model with real American stock data from the S&P index and conduct the out-of-sample analysis to compare the performance of our proposed Variance-CVaR (conditional value-at-risk MPSM with both traditional mean-variance and mean-CVaR models. Our empirical analysis shows that our proposed Variance-CVaR MPSM is not only sustainable, but also obtains the best out-of-sample performance in the sense that the optimal portfolios obtained by using our proposed Variance-CVaR MPSM obtain the highest cumulative returns in the out-of-sample period among the models used in our paper. We note that our proposed model is not only suitable to individuals with low financial sustainability, but also suitable to institutions or investors with high financial sustainability.

  8. Big Data Challenges of High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Mei Choi; Pun, Chi Seng; Wong, Hoi Ying

    2017-08-01

    Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ 1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the dimensionality issue. The resulting portfolio becomes a sparse portfolio that selects stocks with a data-driven procedure and hence offers a stable mean-variance portfolio in practice. When the number of observations becomes large, the LPO portfolio converges to the oracle optimal portfolio, which is free of estimation error, even though the number of stocks grows faster than the number of observations. Our numerical and empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Random Matrix Approach for Primal-Dual Portfolio Optimization Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Daichi; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Shinzato, Takashi

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we revisit the portfolio optimization problems of the minimization/maximization of investment risk under constraints of budget and investment concentration (primal problem) and the maximization/minimization of investment concentration under constraints of budget and investment risk (dual problem) for the case that the variances of the return rates of the assets are identical. We analyze both optimization problems by the Lagrange multiplier method and the random matrix approach. Thereafter, we compare the results obtained from our proposed approach with the results obtained in previous work. Moreover, we use numerical experiments to validate the results obtained from the replica approach and the random matrix approach as methods for analyzing both the primal and dual portfolio optimization problems.

  10. Discrete Analysis of Portfolio Selection with Optimal Stopping Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfeng Liang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the investments in practice are carried out without certain horizons. There are many factors to drive investment to a stop. In this paper, we consider a portfolio selection policy with market-related stopping time. Particularly, we assume that the investor exits the market once his wealth reaches a given investment target or falls below a bankruptcy threshold. Our objective is to minimize the expected time when the investment target is obtained, at the same time, we guarantee the probability that bankruptcy happens is no larger than a given level. We formulate the problem as a mix integer linear programming model and make analysis of the model by using a numerical example.

  11. Stock portfolio selection using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Markowitz’s return–risk model for stock portfolio selection is based on the historical return data of assets. In addition to the effect of historical return, there are many other critical factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market. We use the fuzzy Delphi method to identify the critical factors initially. Factors having lower correlation coefficients are finally considered for further consideration. The critical factors and historical data are used to apply Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to rank the stocks. Then, a portfolio selection model that prefers stocks with higher rank is proposed. Illustration is done using stocks under Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE. Simulation is done by Ant Colony Optimization. The performance of the outcome is found satisfactory when compared with recent performance of the assets. Keywords: Stock portfolio selection, Ranking, Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, Ant Colony Optimization, Fuzzy Delphi method

  12. Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

    2017-02-01

    Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

  13. Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2016-11-01

    In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  14. Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2016-11-01

    In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection: A Stochastic LQ Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, X.Y.; Li, D.

    2000-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model that is formulated as a bicriteria optimization problem. The objective is to maximize the expected terminal return and minimize the variance of the terminal wealth. By putting weights on the two criteria one obtains a single objective stochastic control problem which is however not in the standard form due to the variance term involved. It is shown that this nonstandard problem can be 'embedded' into a class of auxiliary stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ) problems. The stochastic LQ control model proves to be an appropriate and effective framework to study the mean-variance problem in light of the recent development on general stochastic LQ problems with indefinite control weighting matrices. This gives rise to the efficient frontier in a closed form for the original portfolio selection problem

  16. Portfolio optimization and the random magnet problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenow, B.; Plerou, V.; Gopikrishnan, P.; Stanley, H. E.

    2002-08-01

    Diversification of an investment into independently fluctuating assets reduces its risk. In reality, movements of assets are mutually correlated and therefore knowledge of cross-correlations among asset price movements are of great importance. Our results support the possibility that the problem of finding an investment in stocks which exposes invested funds to a minimum level of risk is analogous to the problem of finding the magnetization of a random magnet. The interactions for this "random magnet problem" are given by the cross-correlation matrix C of stock returns. We find that random matrix theory allows us to make an estimate for C which outperforms the standard estimate in terms of constructing an investment which carries a minimum level of risk.

  17. IT PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: MODULARITY PROBLEMS IN A PUBLIC ORGANIZATION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian; Mengiste, Shegaw Anagaw

    2012-01-01

    As today’s public and private sector organizations heavily rely on Information Technology (IT) to provide faster cycle times and better services, IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. This research adopts engaged scholarship to investigate IT PPM practices...... within a large local government. The investigation applies Modularity theory to analyze rich data from the local government covering several units with quite diverse functions to address the following two questions (1) which modularity problems does a public organization have in its IT PPM practices...... suggest a model addressing the identified problems by organizing IT PPM in three modules connected by three gateways. These results may be used to inform further research into IT PPM and to help managers improve IT PPM practices in public organizations. Keywords: IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM...

  18. Mean-Coherent Risk and Mean-Variance Approaches in Portfolio Selection : An Empirical Comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polbennikov, S.Y.; Melenberg, B.

    2005-01-01

    We empirically analyze the implementation of coherent risk measures in portfolio selection.First, we compare optimal portfolios obtained through mean-coherent risk optimization with corresponding mean-variance portfolios.We find that, even for a typical portfolio of equities, the outcomes can be

  19. Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with a Fixed Flow of Investment in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We consider a mean-variance portfolio selection problem for a fixed flow of investment in a continuous time framework. We consider a market structure that is characterized by a cash account, an indexed bond and a stock. We obtain the expected optimal terminal wealth for the investor. We also obtain a closed-form ...

  20. Bond portfolio's duration and investment term-structure management problem

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Daobai

    2006-01-01

    In the considered bond market, there are N zero-coupon bonds transacted continuously, which will mature at equally spaced dates. A duration of bond portfolios under stochastic interest rate model is introduced, which provides a measurement for the interest rate risk. Then we consider an optimal bond investment term-structure management problem using this duration as a performance index, and with the short-term interest rate process satisfying some stochastic differential ...

  1. Optimal portfolio selection for cashflows with bounded capital at risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vyncke, D.; Goovaerts, M.J.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Vanduffel, S.

    2005-01-01

    We consider a continuous-time Markowitz type portfolio problem that consists of minimizing the discounted cost of a given cash-fl ow under the constraint of a restricted Capital at Risk. In a Black-Scholes setting, upper and lower bounds are obtained by means of simple analytical expressions that

  2. Artificial bee colony algorithm for constrained possibilistic portfolio optimization problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we discuss the portfolio optimization problem with real-world constraints under the assumption that the returns of risky assets are fuzzy numbers. A new possibilistic mean-semiabsolute deviation model is proposed, in which transaction costs, cardinality and quantity constraints are considered. Due to such constraints the proposed model becomes a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem and traditional optimization methods fail to find the optimal solution efficiently. Thus, a modified artificial bee colony (MABC) algorithm is developed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and the corresponding algorithm.

  3. An Evolutionary Algorithm for Multiobjective Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Models with Transaction Cost and Liquidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The major issues for mean-variance-skewness models are the errors in estimations that cause corner solutions and low diversity in the portfolio. In this paper, a multiobjective fuzzy portfolio selection model with transaction cost and liquidity is proposed to maintain the diversity of portfolio. In addition, we have designed a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition of the objective space to maintain the diversity of obtained solutions. The algorithm is used to obtain a set of Pareto-optimal portfolios with good diversity and convergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with the classic MOEA/D and NSGA-II through some numerical examples based on the data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Market. Simulation results show that our proposed algorithm is able to obtain better diversity and more evenly distributed Pareto front than the other two algorithms and the proposed model can maintain quite well the diversity of portfolio. The purpose of this paper is to deal with portfolio problems in the weighted possibilistic mean-variance-skewness (MVS and possibilistic mean-variance-skewness-entropy (MVS-E frameworks with transaction cost and liquidity and to provide different Pareto-optimal investment strategies as diversified as possible for investors at a time, rather than one strategy for investors at a time.

  4. Dynamic-Programming Approaches to Single- and Multi-Stage Stochastic Knapsack Problems for Portfolio Optimization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Khoo, Wai

    1999-01-01

    .... These problems model stochastic portfolio optimization problems (SPOPs) which assume deterministic unit weight, and normally distributed unit return with known mean and variance for each item type...

  5. Managing the Public Sector Research and Development Portfolio Selection Process: A Case Study of Quantitative Selection and Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION by Jason A. Schwartz...PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...describing how public sector organizations can implement a research and development (R&D) portfolio optimization strategy to maximize the cost

  6. A New Decision-Making Method for Stock Portfolio Selection Based on Computing with Linguistic Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Tung Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock portfolio selection is how to allocate the capital to a large number of stocks in order to bring a most profitable return for investors. In most of past literatures, experts considered the portfolio of selection problem only based on past crisp or quantitative data. However, many qualitative and quantitative factors will influence the stock portfolio selection in real investment situation. It is very important for experts or decision-makers to use their experience or knowledge to predict the performance of each stock and make a stock portfolio. Because of the knowledge, experience, and background of each expert are different and vague, different types of 2-tuple linguistic variable are suitable used to express experts' opinions for the performance evaluation of each stock with respect to criteria. According to the linguistic evaluations of experts, the linguistic TOPSIS and linguistic ELECTRE methods are combined to present a new decision-making method for dealing with stock selection problems in this paper. Once the investment set has been determined, the risk preferences of investor are considered to calculate the investment ratio of each stock in the investment set. Finally, an example is implemented to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method.

  7. Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

  8. Portfolio selection using ELECTRE III: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aazam Shabani Vezmelai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Ranking the companies can be a useful guide for investors to select an optimum portfolio. Tehran stock exchange (TSE uses liquidity criterion to rank the companies; however, this study shows that preferences of investors, the criteria they use to evaluate companies’ performances, and the extent to which ranking of companies based on investors’ criteria are in line with the ranking announced by the stock exchange. Since the criteria used for ranking the companies are various and often conflicting and because each multiple criteria technique has its own specific characteristics, various rankings are offered. Therefore, it is required to utilize multiple criteria decision making models to avoid confusion of investors. For this purpose, some companies were selected from 50 top companies listed in 2011 in TSE, which maintained the reliability of their ranks and finally, 20 companies were selected and were ranked based on investors’ criteria using EECTRE III Technique. The obtained ranking was then compared with the ranking offered by stock exchange. Research results indicate that ELECTRE III technique was a useful and efficient method to select a portfolio. Moreover, value-based criteria as well as accounting criteria are suitable and useful bases for investors to select a portfolio.

  9. Research on regularized mean-variance portfolio selection strategy with modified Roy safety-first principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yan, Dawen; Yu, Bo; Wei, Xinyuan

    2016-01-01

    We propose a consolidated risk measure based on variance and the safety-first principle in a mean-risk portfolio optimization framework. The safety-first principle to financial portfolio selection strategy is modified and improved. Our proposed models are subjected to norm regularization to seek near-optimal stable and sparse portfolios. We compare the cumulative wealth of our preferred proposed model to a benchmark, S&P 500 index for the same period. Our proposed portfolio strategies have better out-of-sample performance than the selected alternative portfolio rules in literature and control the downside risk of the portfolio returns.

  10. PORTFOLIO SELECTION OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS PROJECTS USING PROMETHEE V WITH C-OPTIMAL CONCEPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatas A. de Almeida

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a multicriteria decision model for selecting a portfolio of information system (IS projects, which integrates strategic and organizational view within a multicriteria decision structure. The PROMETHEE V method, based on outranking relations is applied, considering the c-optimal concept in order to overcome some scaling problems found in the classical PROMETHEE V approach. Then, a procedure is proposed in order to make a final analysis of the c-optimal portfolios found as a result of using PROMETHEE V. Also, the organizational view is discussed, including some factors that may influence decision making on IS projects to be included in the portfolio, such as adding the company's strategic vision and technical aspects that demonstrate how IS contributes value to a company's business.

  11. Macroscopic relationship in primal-dual portfolio optimization problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2018-02-01

    In the present paper, using a replica analysis, we examine the portfolio optimization problem handled in previous work and discuss the minimization of investment risk under constraints of budget and expected return for the case that the distribution of the hyperparameters of the mean and variance of the return rate of each asset are not limited to a specific probability family. Findings derived using our proposed method are compared with those in previous work to verify the effectiveness of our proposed method. Further, we derive a Pythagorean theorem of the Sharpe ratio and macroscopic relations of opportunity loss. Using numerical experiments, the effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated for a specific situation.

  12. Stock portfolio selection using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra Thakur, Gour Sundar; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Sarkar (Mondal), Seema

    2016-01-01

    Markowitz’s return–risk model for stock portfolio selection is based on the historical return data of assets. In addition to the effect of historical return, there are many other critical factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market. We use the fuzzy Delphi method to identify the critical factors initially. Factors having lower correlation coefficients are finally considered for further consideration. The critical factors and historical data are used to apply Dempster–Shafe...

  13. The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem

    OpenAIRE

    Didier, Tatiana; Lowenkron, Alexandre

    2009-01-01

    The current account can be understood as the outcome of investment decisions made by domestic and foreign investors. These decisions can be decomposed into a portfolio rebalancing and a portfolio growth component. This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of portfolio rebalancing for the dynamics of the current account. The authors evaluate the predictions of a partial-equil...

  14. Analysis of the portfolio of sites to characterize for selecting a nuclear repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has selected three sites, from five nominated, to characterize for a nuclear repository to permanently dispose of nuclear waste. This decision was made without the benefit of an analysis of this portfolio problem. This paper analyzes different portfolios of three sites for simultaneous characterization and strategies for sequential characterization. Characterization of each site, which involves significant subsurface excavation, is now estimated to cost $1 billion. Mainly because of the high characterization costs, sequential characterization strategies are identified which are the equivalent of $1.7-2.0 billion less expensive than the selected DOE simultaneous characterization of the three sites. If three sites are simultaneously characterized, one portfolio is estimated to be the equivalent of $100-400 million better than the selected DOE portfolio. Because of these potential savings and several other complicating factors that may influence the relative desirability of characterization strategies, a thorough analysis of characterization strategies that addresses the likelihood of finding disqualifying conditions during site characterization, uncertainties, and dependencies in forecast site repository costs, preclosure and postclosure health and safety impacts, potential delays of both sequential and simultaneous characterization strategies, and the environmental, socioeconomic, and health and safety impacts of characterization activities is recommended

  15. Model to Estimate Monthly Time Horizons for Application of DEA in Selection of Stock Portfolio and for Maintenance of the Selected Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Claudio Isaias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the selecting of stock portfolios, one type of analysis that has shown good results is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. It, however, has been shown to have gaps regarding its estimates of monthly time horizons of data collection for the selection of stock portfolios and of monthly time horizons for the maintenance of a selected portfolio. To better estimate these horizons, this study proposes a model of mathematical programming binary of minimization of square errors. This model is the paper’s main contribution. The model’s results are validated by simulating the estimated annual return indexes of a portfolio that uses both horizons estimated and of other portfolios that do not use these horizons. The simulation shows that portfolios with both horizons estimated have higher indexes, on average 6.99% per year. The hypothesis tests confirm the statistically significant superiority of the results of the proposed mathematical model’s indexes. The model’s indexes are also compared with portfolios that use just one of the horizons estimated; here the indexes of the dual-horizon portfolios outperform the single-horizon portfolios, though with a decrease in percentage of statistically significant superiority.

  16. Robust Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix *

    OpenAIRE

    Ismail, Amine; Pham, Huyên

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies a robust continuous-time Markowitz portfolio selection pro\\-blem where the model uncertainty carries on the covariance matrix of multiple risky assets. This problem is formulated into a min-max mean-variance problem over a set of non-dominated probability measures that is solved by a McKean-Vlasov dynamic programming approach, which allows us to characterize the solution in terms of a Bellman-Isaacs equation in the Wasserstein space of probability measures. We provide expli...

  17. Representation Bias, Return Forecast, and Portfolio Selection in the Stock Market of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daping Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Representation bias means a kind of cognitive tendency, and, for investors, it can affect their behavior in the stock market. Whether the representation bias can help the return forecast and portfolio selection is an interesting problem that is less studied. In this paper, based on the representation bias theory and current markets situation in China, a new hierarchy of stock measurement system is constructed and a corresponding set of criteria is also proposed. On each criterion, we try to measure the influence among stocks with adapted fuzzy AHP. Then the Hausdorff distance is applied to weight and compute the horizontal representation returns. For the forecast returns, according to representation behaviors, there is also a new computation method. Empirical results show that the representation bias information is useful to the return forecast as well as the portfolio selection.

  18. Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wei

    2012-01-01

    An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

  19. Properties of Risk Measures of Generalized Entropy in Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxi Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper systematically investigates the properties of six kinds of entropy-based risk measures: Information Entropy and Cumulative Residual Entropy in the probability space, Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy and Sine Entropy in the fuzzy space, and Hybrid Entropy in the hybridized uncertainty of both fuzziness and randomness. We discover that none of the risk measures satisfy all six of the following properties, which various scholars have associated with effective risk measures: Monotonicity, Translation Invariance, Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency and Convexity. Measures based on Fuzzy Entropy, Credibility Entropy, and Sine Entropy all exhibit the same properties: Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, Consistency, and Convexity. These measures based on Information Entropy and Hybrid Entropy, meanwhile, only exhibit Sub-additivity and Consistency. Cumulative Residual Entropy satisfies just Sub-additivity, Positive Homogeneity, and Convexity. After identifying these properties, we develop seven portfolio models based on different risk measures and made empirical comparisons using samples from both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China and the New York Stock Exchange of America. The comparisons show that the Mean Fuzzy Entropy Model performs the best among the seven models with respect to both daily returns and relative cumulative returns. Overall, these results could provide an important reference for both constructing effective risk measures and rationally selecting the appropriate risk measure under different portfolio selection conditions.

  20. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, Grant; Eromenko, Igor; McGregor, Peter; Swales, Kim

    2011-01-01

    Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance 'inefficient' in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost. - Research Highlights: → Portfolio analysis of scenarios for Scotland's electricity generating mix in 2020. → Reveals potential inefficiencies of selecting mixes based on levelised cost alone. → Portfolio risk-reducing contribution of Wave and Tidal technologies assessed.

  1. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allan, Grant, E-mail: grant.j.allan@strath.ac.u [Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom); Eromenko, Igor; McGregor, Peter [Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom); Swales, Kim [Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom)

    2011-01-15

    Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance 'inefficient' in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost. - Research Highlights: {yields} Portfolio analysis of scenarios for Scotland's electricity generating mix in 2020. {yields} Reveals potential inefficiencies of selecting mixes based on levelised cost alone. {yields} Portfolio risk-reducing contribution of Wave and Tidal technologies assessed.

  2. Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tofighian, Ali Asghar; Moezzi, Hamid; Khakzar Barfuei, Morteza; Shafiee, Mahmood

    2018-02-01

    This paper deals with multi-period project portfolio selection problem. In this problem, the available budget is invested on the best portfolio of projects in each period such that the net profit is maximized. We also consider more realistic assumptions to cover wider range of applications than those reported in previous studies. A novel mathematical model is presented to solve the problem, considering risks, stochastic incomes, and possibility of investing extra budget in each time period. Due to the complexity of the problem, an effective meta-heuristic method hybridized with a local search procedure is presented to solve the problem. The algorithm is based on genetic algorithm (GA), which is a prominent method to solve this type of problems. The GA is enhanced by a new solution representation and well selected operators. It also is hybridized with a local search mechanism to gain better solution in shorter time. The performance of the proposed algorithm is then compared with well-known algorithms, like basic genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM-like) by means of some prominent indicators. The computation results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. At last, the proposed algorithm is wisely combined with PSO to improve the computing time considerably.

  3. On the Equivalence of Quadratic Optimization Problems Commonly Used in Portfolio Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Taras Bodnar; Nestor Parolya; Wolfgang Schmid

    2012-01-01

    In the paper, we consider three quadratic optimization problems which are frequently applied in portfolio theory, i.e, the Markowitz mean-variance problem as well as the problems based on the mean-variance utility function and the quadratic utility.Conditions are derived under which the solutions of these three optimization procedures coincide and are lying on the efficient frontier, the set of mean-variance optimal portfolios. It is shown that the solutions of the Markowitz optimization prob...

  4. Analysis of the rebalancing frequency in log-optimal portfolio selection

    OpenAIRE

    Kuhn, Daniel; Luenberger, David G.

    2010-01-01

    In a dynamic investment situation, the right timing of portfolio revisions and adjustments is essential to sustain long-term growth. A high rebalancing frequency reduces the portfolio performance in the presence of transaction costs, whereas a low rebalancing frequency entails a static investment strategy that hardly reacts to changing market conditions. This article studies a family of portfolio problems in a Black-Scholes type economy which depend parametrically on the rebalancing frequency...

  5. NPD project portfolio selection using reinvestment strategy in competitive environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Ghassemi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to design a new model for selecting most fitting new product development projects in a pool of projects. To catch the best model, we assume new products will be introduced to the competitive markets. Also, we suppose the revenue yielded by completed projects can be reinvested on implementation of other projects. Other sources of financing are borrowing loans from banks and initial capital of the firm. These limited resources determine most evaluated projects to be performed. Several types of interactions among different projects are considered to make the chosen projects more like a portfolio. In addition, some numerical examples from the real world are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. These examples show how the particular considerations in the suggested model affect the results.

  6. Portfolio optimization problem with nonidentical variances of asset returns using statistical mechanical informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2016-12-01

    The portfolio optimization problem in which the variances of the return rates of assets are not identical is analyzed in this paper using the methodology of statistical mechanical informatics, specifically, replica analysis. We defined two characteristic quantities of an optimal portfolio, namely, minimal investment risk and investment concentration, in order to solve the portfolio optimization problem and analytically determined their asymptotical behaviors using replica analysis. Numerical experiments were also performed, and a comparison between the results of our simulation and those obtained via replica analysis validated our proposed method.

  7. Mean-variance portfolio selection and efficient frontier for defined contribution pension schemes

    OpenAIRE

    Hoejgaard, B.; Vigna, E.

    2007-01-01

    We solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution pension scheme. The efficient frontier, which is found for the 2 asset case as well as the n + 1 asset case, gives the member the possibility to decide his own risk/reward profile. The mean-variance approach is then compared to other investment strategies adopted in DC pension schemes, namely the target-based approach and the lifestyle strategy. The comparison is done both in a theoretical...

  8. Portfolio selection between rational and behavioral theories emergent markets case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bouri Abdelfatteh

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of Portfolio Choice under the investors, professionals and academics’ perception. We introduce an approach based on cognitive mapping technique with a series of semi-directive interviews. Among a sample of 30 Tunisian individuals, we propose tow different frameworks: a mean-variance framework and a behavioral framework. Each framework is oriented to capture the effect of some concepts as proposed by the mean-variance portfolio theory and the behavioral portfolio theory on the portfolio choice decision. The originality of this research paper is guaranteed since it traits the behavioral portfolio choice in emergent markets. In the best of our knowledge this is the first study in the Tunisian context that explores such area of research. Ours results show that the Tunisian investors behave as it prescribed by the behavioral portfolio theory. They use some concepts proposed by the rational mean-variance theory of portfolio choice but they are affected by their emotions and some others cognitive bias when constructing and managing they portfolio of assets.

  9. Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

  10. Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oskar Marko

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

  11. Applying Portfolio Selection: A Case of Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Praptiningsih

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has three objectives. First, we investigate whether Modern Portfolio Theory can be applied on the financial decisions that made by investors or individual in order to increase their wealth through investment activities. Second, we examine the real behavior of each asset in terms of capital assets pricing models. Third, we determine whether our portfolio is the best model to produce a higher return in a given level of risk or a lowest risk in a particular level of return. It is found that three different stocks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange have a positive relationship with market returns. The reactions of the investor regarding these stocks are not influenced by each other. Lastly, the minimum variance portfolio (MVP point which represents the single portfolio with the lowest possible level of standard deviation, occurs when the expected return of portfolio is approximately 2.2 percent at a standard deviation of 8.8 percent.

  12. A proposed selection process in Over-The-Top project portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jemy Vestius Confido

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an Over-The-Top (OTT initiative selection process for communication service providers (CSPs entering an OTT business. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this objective, a literature review was conducted to comprehend the past and current practices of the project (or initiative selection process as mainly suggested in project portfolio management (PPM. This literature was compared with specific situations and the needs of CSPs when constructing an OTT portfolio. Based on the contrast between the conventional project selection process and specific OTT characteristics, a different selection process is developed and tested using group model-building (GMB, which involved an in-depth interview, a questionnaire and a focus group discussion (FGD. Findings: The paper recommends five distinct steps for CSPs to construct an OTT initiative portfolio: candidate list of OTT initiatives, interdependency diagram, evaluation of all interdependent OTT initiatives, evaluation of all non-interdependent OTT initiatives and optimal portfolio of OTT initiatives. Research limitations/implications: The research is empirical, and various OTT services are implemented; the conclusion is derived only from one CSP, which operates as a group. Generalization of this approach will require further empirical tests on different CSPs, OTT players or any firms performing portfolio selection with a degree of interdependency among the projects. Practical implications: Having considered interdependency, the proposed OTT initiative selection steps can be further implemented by portfolio managers for more effective OTT initiative portfolio construction. Originality/value: While the previous literature and common practices suggest ensuring the benefits (mainly financial of individual projects, this research accords higher priority to the success of the overall OTT initiative portfolio and recommends that an evaluation of the overall

  13. Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Joshua; Daubechies, Ingrid; De Mol, Christine; Giannone, Domenico; Loris, Ignace

    2009-07-28

    We consider the problem of portfolio selection within the classical Markowitz mean-variance framework, reformulated as a constrained least-squares regression problem. We propose to add to the objective function a penalty proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the portfolio weights. This penalty regularizes (stabilizes) the optimization problem, encourages sparse portfolios (i.e., portfolios with only few active positions), and allows accounting for transaction costs. Our approach recovers as special cases the no-short-positions portfolios, but does allow for short positions in limited number. We implement this methodology on two benchmark data sets constructed by Fama and French. Using only a modest amount of training data, we construct portfolios whose out-of-sample performance, as measured by Sharpe ratio, is consistently and significantly better than that of the naïve evenly weighted portfolio.

  14. System for selecting a postponement strategy portfolio for supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Eduardo Simão

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The stagnation of the economy has increased competition and uncertainty in the industrial sector. Trends such as the increase in the proliferation of the variety of products and the requirement for customization of products has contributed to difficulties in forecasting demand, due to increased uncertainty of demand for final products. In this new competitive environment, it is no longer possible to use the traditional “one size fits all” supply chain process, with unique policies for all products because this practice can lead to significant profitability losses due to the increase in stock levels and lost sales. However, research on supply chains has given relatively little attention to the need to use different, segmented supply chain strategies as well as to develop and manage these multiple supply chains strategies simultaneously. Thus, this paper aims to present an approach for selecting a portfolio of postponement strategies based on segmentation of supply chain, based on analysis of the demand profile (volume-variety analysis and a tool to assist in the selection of postponement strategies driven by the customer-product sector and their respective propositions of value.

  15. Firefly Algorithm for Cardinality Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Problem with Entropy Diversity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebojsa Bacanin

    2014-01-01

    portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.

  16. Continuous Time Portfolio Selection under Conditional Capital at Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Dmitrasinovic-Vidovic

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization with respect to different risk measures is of interest to both practitioners and academics. For there to be a well-defined optimal portfolio, it is important that the risk measure be coherent and quasiconvex with respect to the proportion invested in risky assets. In this paper we investigate one such measure—conditional capital at risk—and find the optimal strategies under this measure, in the Black-Scholes continuous time setting, with time dependent coefficients.

  17. Mean-variance portfolio selection and efficient frontier for defined contribution pension schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højgaard, Bjarne; Vigna, Elena

    We solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem in the accumulation phase of a defined contribution pension scheme. The efficient frontier, which is found for the 2 asset case as well as the n + 1 asset case, gives the member the possibility to decide his own risk/reward profile. The mean...... as a mean-variance optimization problem. It is shown that the corresponding mean and variance of the final fund belong to the efficient frontier and also the opposite, that each point on the efficient frontier corresponds to a target-based optimization problem. Furthermore, numerical results indicate...... that the largely adopted lifestyle strategy seems to be very far from being efficient in the mean-variance setting....

  18. Minimal investment risk of a portfolio optimization problem with budget and investment concentration constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2017-02-01

    In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is intuitive that the minimal investment risk for the problem with an investment concentration constraint can be larger than that without the constraint (that is, with only the budget constraint). Moreover, a numerical experiment shows the effectiveness of our proposed analysis. In contrast, the standard operations research approach failed to identify accurately the minimal investment risk of the portfolio optimization problem.

  19. Penalty Algorithm Based on Conjugate Gradient Method for Solving Portfolio Management Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang YaLin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A new approach was proposed to reformulate the biobjectives optimization model of portfolio management into an unconstrained minimization problem, where the objective function is a piecewise quadratic polynomial. We presented some properties of such an objective function. Then, a class of penalty algorithms based on the well-known conjugate gradient methods was developed to find the solution of portfolio management problem. By implementing the proposed algorithm to solve the real problems from the stock market in China, it was shown that this algorithm is promising.

  20. Robust and Reliable Portfolio Optimization Formulation of a Chance Constrained Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sengupta Raghu Nandan

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We solve a linear chance constrained portfolio optimization problem using Robust Optimization (RO method wherein financial script/asset loss return distributions are considered as extreme valued. The objective function is a convex combination of portfolio’s CVaR and expected value of loss return, subject to a set of randomly perturbed chance constraints with specified probability values. The robust deterministic counterpart of the model takes the form of Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP problem. Results from extensive simulation runs show the efficacy of our proposed models, as it helps the investor to (i utilize extensive simulation studies to draw insights into the effect of randomness in portfolio decision making process, (ii incorporate different risk appetite scenarios to find the optimal solutions for the financial portfolio allocation problem and (iii compare the risk and return profiles of the investments made in both deterministic as well as in uncertain and highly volatile financial markets.

  1. Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga-Haszonits, I.; Kondor, I.

    2007-11-01

    This paper investigates the efficiency of minimum variance portfolio optimization for stock price movements following the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH process proposed by Bollerslev. Simulations show that the quality of portfolio selection can be improved substantially by computing optimal portfolio weights from conditional covariances instead of unconditional ones. Measurement noise can be further reduced by applying some filtering method on the conditional correlation matrix (such as Random Matrix Theory based filtering). As an empirical support for the simulation results, the analysis is also carried out for a time series of S&P500 stock prices.

  2. THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF THE STUDENTS’ ELECTRONIC PORTFOLIO FORMATION IN TERMS OF THE HIGHER EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia V. Dementieva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is the description of the main problems of formation of the student’s electronic portfolio in the conditions of realization of Federal State Educational Standards of the Higher Education (FSES of HE.Methods.Theoretical analysis of scientific literature concerning the subject under discussion; monitoring of existing practices in modern Russian Universities procedures for the formation and maintenance of students electronic portfolio.Results. The author describes the main problems of the electronic students’ portfolio formation; some ways of solving described problems are offered.Scientific novelty concludes in the formation of key ideas of the electronic students’ portfolio based on the understanding of requirements of Federal State Educational Standards of Higher Education for the results of mastering educational programs. They are the formation of general cultural, general professional and professional competences.Practical significance. The researching results will become the theoretical basis for the systematic organization of the process of creating and maintaining an electronic students’ portfolio during the whole period of their studying at the university; the researching results can become a basis for methodological developments.

  3. The Optimal Portfolio Selection Model under g-Expectation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2014-01-01

    complicated and sophisticated, the optimal solution turns out to be surprisingly simple, the payoff of a portfolio of two binary claims. Also I give the economic meaning of my model and the comparison with that one in the work of Jin and Zhou, 2008.

  4. Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Škrinjarić, Tihana; Šego, Boško

    2016-01-01

    Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation an...

  5. Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Škrinjarić Tihana

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation and restructuring over time.

  6. Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian

    2017-01-01

    The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

  7. Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ren

    Full Text Available The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

  8. Supplier Portfolio Selection and Optimum Volume Allocation: A Knowledge Based Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aziz, Romana; Aziz, R.; van Hillegersberg, Jos; Kersten, W.; Blecker, T.; Luthje, C.

    2010-01-01

    Selection of suppliers and allocation of optimum volumes to suppliers is a strategic business decision. This paper presents a decision support method for supplier selection and the optimal allocation of volumes in a supplier portfolio. The requirements for the method were gathered during a case

  9. On application of vector optimization in the problem of formation of portfolio of counterparties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbich, A. L.; Medvedeva, M. A.; Medvedev, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    For the effective functioning of any enterprise it is necessary to choose the right partners: suppliers of raw material, buyers of finished products, with which the company interacts in the course of their business. However, the presence on the market of big amounts of enterprises makes the choice the most appropriate among them very difficult and requires the ability to objectively assess of the possible partners, based on multilateral analysis of their activities. This analysis can be carried out based on the solution of multiobjective problems of mathematical programming by using the methods of vector optimization. The work considers existing methods of selection of counterparties, as well as the theoretical foundations for the proposed methodology. It also describes a computer program that analyzes the raw data for contractors and allows choosing the best portfolio of suppliers of enterprise. The feature of selection of counterparties is that today's market has a large number of enterprises in similar activities. Successful choice of contractor will help to avoid unpleasant situations and financial losses, as well as to find a reliable partner in his person for the implementation of the production strategy of the company.

  10. Vast Volatility Matrix Estimation using High Frequency Data for Portfolio Selection*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Li, Yingying; Yu, Ke

    2012-01-01

    Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of portfolios selection among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al. (2011). The required high-dimensional volatility matrix can be estimated by using high frequency financial data. This enables us to better adapt to the local volatilities and local correlations among vast number of assets and to increase significantly the sample size for estimating the volatility matrix. This paper studies the volatility matrix estimation using high-dimensional high-frequency data from the perspective of portfolio selection. Specifically, we propose the use of “pairwise-refresh time” and “all-refresh time” methods based on the concept of “refresh time” proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2008) for estimation of vast covariance matrix and compare their merits in the portfolio selection. We establish the concentration inequalities of the estimates, which guarantee desirable properties of the estimated volatility matrix in vast asset allocation with gross exposure constraints. Extensive numerical studies are made via carefully designed simulations. Comparing with the methods based on low frequency daily data, our methods can capture the most recent trend of the time varying volatility and correlation, hence provide more accurate guidance for the portfolio allocation in the next time period. The advantage of using high-frequency data is significant in our simulation and empirical studies, which consist of 50 simulated assets and 30 constituent stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index. PMID:23264708

  11. Vast Volatility Matrix Estimation using High Frequency Data for Portfolio Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Li, Yingying; Yu, Ke

    2012-01-01

    Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of portfolios selection among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al. (2011). The required high-dimensional volatility matrix can be estimated by using high frequency financial data. This enables us to better adapt to the local volatilities and local correlations among vast number of assets and to increase significantly the sample size for estimating the volatility matrix. This paper studies the volatility matrix estimation using high-dimensional high-frequency data from the perspective of portfolio selection. Specifically, we propose the use of "pairwise-refresh time" and "all-refresh time" methods based on the concept of "refresh time" proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2008) for estimation of vast covariance matrix and compare their merits in the portfolio selection. We establish the concentration inequalities of the estimates, which guarantee desirable properties of the estimated volatility matrix in vast asset allocation with gross exposure constraints. Extensive numerical studies are made via carefully designed simulations. Comparing with the methods based on low frequency daily data, our methods can capture the most recent trend of the time varying volatility and correlation, hence provide more accurate guidance for the portfolio allocation in the next time period. The advantage of using high-frequency data is significant in our simulation and empirical studies, which consist of 50 simulated assets and 30 constituent stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

  12. A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

    2013-10-01

    Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

  13. New Method of Selecting Efficient Project Portfolios in the Presence of Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Rębiasz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new methods of selecting efficient project portfolios in the presence of hybrid uncertainty has been presented. Pareto optimal solutions have been defined by an algorithm for generating project portfolios. The method presented allows us to select efficient project portfolios taking into account statistical and economic dependencies between projects when some of the parameters used in the calculation of effectiveness can be expressed in the form of an interactive possibility distribution and some in the form of a probability distribution. The procedure for processing such hybrid data combines stochastic simulation with nonlinear programming. The interaction between data are modeled by correlation matrices and the interval regression. Economic dependences are taken into account by the equations balancing the production capacity of the company. The practical example presented indicates that an interaction between projects has a significant impact on the results of calculations. (original abstract

  14. A Hybrid MCDM Approach for Strategic Project Portfolio Selection of Agro By-Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Animesh Debnath

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increasing size of the population, society faces several challenges for sustainable and adequate agricultural production, quality, distribution, and food safety in the strategic project portfolio selection (SPPS. The initial adaptation of strategic portfolio management of genetically modified (GM Agro by-products (Ab-Ps is a huge challenge in terms of processing the agro food product supply-chain practices in an environmentally nonthreatening way. As a solution to the challenges, the socio-economic characteristics for SPPS of GM food purchasing scenarios are studied. Evaluation and selection of the GM agro portfolio management are the dynamic issues due to physical and immaterial criteria involving a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM approach, combining modified grey Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL, Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC and sensitivity analysis. Evaluation criteria are grouped into social, differential and beneficial clusters, and the modified DEMATEL procedure is used to derive the criteria weights. The MABAC method is applied to rank the strategic project portfolios according to the aggregated preferences of decision makers (DMs. The usefulness of the proposed research framework is validated with a case study. The GM by-products are found to be the best portfolio. Moreover, this framework can unify the policies of agro technological improvement, corporate social responsibility (CSR and agro export promotion.

  15. Effective Stock Selection and Portfolio Construction Within US, International, and Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijan Beheshti

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the ex-post attributes of 120 simulated portfolios across the U.S., International, and Emerging Markets. We estimate expected returns using a given global stock selection model employing Global Equity Rating (GLER and Consensus Temporary Earnings Forecasting (CTEF signals. Our portfolios are constructed under the Markowitz optimization framework and constrained at various tracking error levels. Further, an alpha alignment factor is applied to aid in portfolio construction. As a result of our research, we present the reader with three key findings. First, GLER and CTEF signals employed as the primary inputs to security selection result in portfolios with superior risk adjusted returns relative to the Russell 3000, MSCI AC World ex. US, and MSCI Emerging Markets benchmarks which they are measured against. Second, expanding the investment universe outside the U.S. increases the opportunity set yielding higher risk adjusted performance. Third, the incorporation of an alpha alignment factor within the portfolio construction process improves risk forecasts resulting in ex-post tracking error aligning more closely to ex-ante, and ultimately improving information ratios.

  16. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  17. Optimal portfolio selection in a Lévy market with uncontrolled cash flow and only risky assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yan; Li, Zhongfei; Wu, Huiling

    2013-03-01

    This article considers an investor who has an exogenous cash flow evolving according to a Lévy process and invests in a financial market consisting of only risky assets, whose prices are governed by exponential Lévy processes. Two continuous-time portfolio selection problems are studied for the investor. One is a benchmark problem, and the other is a mean-variance problem. The first problem is solved by adopting the stochastic dynamic programming approach, and the obtained results are extended to the second problem by employing the duality theory. Closed-form solutions of these two problems are derived. Some existing results are found to be special cases of our results.

  18. Transforming local government by project portfolio management: Identifying and overcoming control problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – As public organizations strive for higher e-government maturity, information technology (IT) Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. Assuming control is central in IT PPM, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how a Danish local government conducts...... to understand how local governments can improve IT PPM. Keywords IT project portfolio management, E-government, Control theory, Control problems, Formal mechanisms, Informal mechanisms, Local government, Denmark...... control in IT PPM. The authors identify control problems and formulate recommendations to address these. Design/methodology/approach – Adopting principles from Engaged Scholarship, the authors have conducted a case study using a wide variety of data collection methods, including 29 interviews, one...

  19. Asset Allocation and Optimal Contract for Delegated Portfolio Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingjun; Liang, Jianfeng

    This article studies the portfolio selection and the contracting problems between an individual investor and a professional portfolio manager in a discrete-time principal-agent framework. Portfolio selection and optimal contracts are obtained in closed form. The optimal contract was composed with the fixed fee, the cost, and the fraction of excess expected return. The optimal portfolio is similar to the classical two-fund separation theorem.

  20. Robust portfolio selection based on asymmetric measures of variability of stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Tan, Shaohua

    2009-10-01

    This paper addresses a new uncertainty set--interval random uncertainty set for robust optimization. The form of interval random uncertainty set makes it suitable for capturing the downside and upside deviations of real-world data. These deviation measures capture distributional asymmetry and lead to better optimization results. We also apply our interval random chance-constrained programming to robust mean-variance portfolio selection under interval random uncertainty sets in the elements of mean vector and covariance matrix. Numerical experiments with real market data indicate that our approach results in better portfolio performance.

  1. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X The price of portfolio selection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The price of portfolio selection under tail conditional expectation with ... TCE provides a more conservative measure of risk than VaR for the same level ...... Substituting the new value function and its derivatives with respect to h into the .... the optimal condition is that the discount rate is proxy of the systematic volatility factor.

  2. Differentiability properties of the efficient (u,q2)-set in the Markowitz portfolio selection method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriens, J.; Strijbosch, L.W.G.; Vörös, J.

    1994-01-01

    The set of efficient (Rho2)-combinations in the (Rho2)-plane of the Markowitz portfolio selection method consists of a series of strictly convex parabola. In the transition points from one parabola to the next one, the curve may be indifferentiable. The article gives necessary and sufficient

  3. On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livan, Giacomo; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time series provides better, more accurate, correlation estimates. Then, we investigate the possible consequences of instabilities in empirical correlation coefficient measurements on optimal portfolio selection. We rely on previously published works which provide a framework allowing us to take into account possible risk underestimations due to the non-optimality of the portfolio weights being used in order to distinguish such non-optimality effects from risk underestimations genuinely due to non-stationarities. We interpret such results in terms of instabilities in some spectral properties of portfolio correlation matrices. (paper)

  4. Multi-Period Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Uncertain Time Horizon When Returns Are Serially Correlated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem with an uncertain time horizon and serial correlations. Firstly, we embed the nonseparable multi-period optimization problem into a separable quadratic optimization problem with uncertain exit time by employing the embedding technique of Li and Ng (2000. Then we convert the later into an optimization problem with deterministic exit time. Finally, using the dynamic programming approach, we explicitly derive the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier for the dynamic mean-variance optimization problem. A numerical example with AR(1 return process is also presented, which shows that both the uncertainty of exit time and the serial correlations of returns have significant impacts on the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier.

  5. GREECE--SELECTED PROBLEMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MARTONFFY, ANDREA PONTECORVO; AND OTHERS

    A CURRICULUM GUIDE IS PRESENTED FOR A 10-WEEK STUDY OF ANCIENT GREEK CIVILIZATION AT THE 10TH-GRADE LEVEL. TEACHING MATERIALS FOR THE UNIT INCLUDE (1) PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SOURCES DEALING WITH THE PERIOD FROM THE BRONZE AGE THROUGH THE HELLENISTIC PERIOD, (2) GEOGRAPHY PROBLEMS, AND (3) CULTURAL MODEL PROBLEM EXERCISES. THOSE CONCEPTS WITH WHICH…

  6. Project portfolio selection of banking services using COPRAS and Fuzzy-TOPSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.O. Anyaeche

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio selection is a business process which has helped organisations identify an area of com-petitive advantage and it is a major concern to industrial players in the banking sectors. In order to enhance bank portfolio selection, cost, profitability, time and location are important parameters that decision-makers often consider. This study implements a fuzzy-TOPSIS (Technique for Or-der Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution framework to evaluate three potential portfolios (automated teller machine gallery, quick service point and branch for a bank using the infor-mation from three decision-makers. An illustrative example of real bank information is used to demonstrate the proposed framework applicability. The complex proportional assessment of al-ternatives (COPRAS method is also used as an evaluation technique and the results are com-pared, which yields that the results from the ranking order of fuzzy-TOPSIS and COPRAS were different. However, there is a consistency between the aggregation of intuition-based, fuzzy-TOPSIS and COPRAS ranks and fuzzy-TOPSIS ranking results. The presented framework is an easy-to-apply tool that improves portfolio selection decision in the banking system.

  7. A Closed-Form Solution for Robust Portfolio Selection with Worst-Case CVaR Risk Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the uncertainty probability distribution, we establish the worst-case CVaR (WCCVaR risk measure and discuss a robust portfolio selection problem with WCCVaR constraint. The explicit solution, instead of numerical solution, is found and two-fund separation is proved. The comparison of efficient frontier with mean-variance model is discussed and finally we give numerical comparison with VaR model and equally weighted strategy. The numerical findings indicate that the proposed WCCVaR model has relatively smaller risk and greater return and relatively higher accumulative wealth than VaR model and equally weighted strategy.

  8. Omega-optimized portfolios: applying stochastic dominance criterion for the selection of the threshold return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaldas Vilkancas

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: While using asymmetric risk-return measures an important role is played by selection of the investor‘s required or threshold rate of return. The scientific literature usually states that every investor should define this rate according to their degree of risk aversion. In this paper, it is attempted to look at the problem from a different perspective – empirical research is aimed at determining the influence of the threshold rate of return on the portfolio characteristics. Methodology/methods: In order to determine the threshold rate of return a stochastic dominance criterion was used. The results are verified using the commonly applied method of backtesting. Scientific aim: The aim of this paper is to propose a method allowing selecting the threshold rate of return reliably and objectively. Findings: Empirical research confirms that stochastic dominance criteria can be successfully applied to determine the rate of return preferred by the investor. Conclusions: A risk-free investment rate or simply a zero rate of return commonly used in practice is often justified neither by theoretical nor empirical studies. This work suggests determining the threshold rate of return by applying the stochastic dominance criterion

  9. Authentic assessment based showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving in senior high school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukmawati, Zuhairoh, Faihatuz

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop authentic assessment model based on showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving. This research used research and development Method (R & D) which consists of four stages of development that: Phase I, conducting a preliminary study. Phase II, determining the purpose of developing and preparing the initial model. Phase III, trial test of instrument for the initial draft model and the initial product. The respondents of this research are the students of SMAN 8 and SMAN 20 Makassar. The collection of data was through observation, interviews, documentation, student questionnaire, and instrument tests mathematical solving abilities. The data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistics. The results of this research are authentic assessment model design based on showcase portfolio which involves: 1) Steps in implementing the authentic assessment based Showcase, assessment rubric of cognitive aspects, assessment rubric of affective aspects, and assessment rubric of skill aspect. 2) The average ability of the students' problem solving which is scored by using authentic assessment based on showcase portfolio was in high category and the students' response in good category.

  10. The Effect of Exit Strategy on Optimal Portfolio Selection with Birandom Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Guohua; Shan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this paper are to use a birandom variable to denote the stock return selected by some recurring technical patterns and to study the effect of exit strategy on optimal portfolio selection with birandom returns. Firstly, we propose a new method to estimate the stock return and use birandom distribution to denote the final stock return which can reflect the features of technical patterns and investors' heterogeneity simultaneously; secondly, we build a birandom safety-first model and...

  11. On market timing and portfolio selectivity: modifying the Henriksson-Merton model

    OpenAIRE

    Goś, Krzysztof

    2011-01-01

    This paper evaluates selected functionalities of the parametrical Henriksson-Merton test, a tool designed for measuring the market timing and portfolio selectivity capabilities. It also provides a solution to two significant disadvantages of the model: relatively indirect interpretation and vulnerability to parameter insignificance. The model has been put to test on a group of Polish mutual funds in a period of 63 months (January 2004 – March 2009), providing unsatisfa...

  12. Seleção de flexibilidades de manufatura: uma analogia à carteira de ações para minimização de riscos e problemas no ambiente fabril Manufacturing flexibility selection: an analogy to the stock portfolio management for risk and problem minimization in the manufacturing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ualison Rébula Oliveira

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Para empresas de manufatura, vários autores recomendam a utilização da flexibilidade de manufatura para a minimização dos impactos prejudiciais que os riscos incutem às organizações. Entretanto, a característica multidimensional da flexibilidade de manufatura e os trade-offs existentes entre os diversos tipos dificultam a tarefa de se selecionar e adequar o grau de flexibilidade a ser adotado, frente às variáveis existentes. Além disso, a escolha indevida de tipos de flexibilidade para a solução de problemas pode gerar investimentos desnecessários e inadequados, ocasionando perda de capital e ineficiência no uso dos recursos flexíveis escolhidos para antecipação aos riscos. Assim, disponibilizar à gestão de operações resultados que permitam a seleção de diferentes tipos de flexibilidade, segundo as necessidades e a disponibilidade de recursos de cada empresa, torna-se crucial. Com esse propósito, efetuou-se uma pesquisa empírica que contemplou oito empresas de cinco segmentos industriais, na qual, por meio de uma analogia à diversificação de riscos em carteira de ações, propõe-se a composição de cinco diferentes tipos de carteiras de flexibilidades, para cinco diferentes segmentos industriais.Many authors recommend the use of manufacturing flexibility to minimize the harmful effects that risks instill in manufacturing companies. However, the multidimensional feature of manufacturing flexibility and the several different types of trade-offs make it difficult to select and customize the flexibility level to be adopted due to the existing variables. Moreover, choosing wrong types of flexibility for the solution of problems may lead to unnecessary and inadequate investments resulting in capital loss and inefficiency in the use of flexible resources for risk anticipation. Therefore, it becomes crucial to provide operations management with results that allow the selection of different types of flexibility according

  13. Selecting the Best of Portfolio Using OWA Operator Weights in Cross Efficiency-Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Sanei, Masoud; Banihashemi, Shokoofeh

    2014-01-01

    The present study is an attempt toward evaluating the performance of portfolios and asset selection using cross-efficiency evaluation. Cross-efficiency evaluation is an effective way of ranking decision making units (DMUs) in data envelopment analysis (DEA). The most widely used approach is to evaluate the efficiencies in each row or column in the cross-efficiency matrix with equal weights into an average cross-efficiency score for each DMU and consider it as the overall performance measureme...

  14. Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarna, A.

    2017-03-01

    Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.

  15. Optimal portfolio selection between different kinds of Renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakerinia, MohammadSaleh; Piltan, Mehdi; Ghaderi, Farid

    2010-09-15

    In this paper, selection of the optimal energy supply system in an industrial unit is taken into consideration. This study takes environmental, economical and social parameters into consideration in modeling along with technical factors. Several alternatives which include renewable energy sources, micro-CHP systems and conventional system has been compared by means of an integrated model of linear programming and three multi-criteria approaches (AHP, TOPSIS and ELECTRE III). New parameters like availability of sources, fuels' price volatility, besides traditional factors are considered in different scenarios. Results show with environmental preferences, renewable sources and micro-CHP are good alternatives for conventional systems.

  16. Mean-Variance stochastic goal programming for sustainable mutual funds' portfolio selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    García-Bernabeu, Ana

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Mean-Variance Stochastic Goal Programming models (MV-SGP provide satisficing investment solutions in uncertain contexts. In this work, an MV-SGP model is proposed for portfolio selection which includes goals with regards to traditional and sustainable assets. The proposed approach is based on a two-step procedure. In the first step, sustainability and/or financial screens are applied to a set of assets (mutual funds previously evaluated with TOPSIS to determine the opportunity set. In a second step, satisficing portfolios of assets are obtained using a Goal Programming approach. Two different goals are considered. The first goal reflects only the purely financial side of the target while the second goal is referred to the sustainable side. Aversion to Risk Absolute (ARA coefficients are estimated and incorporated in our investment decision making approach using two different approaches.

  17. Transforming local government by project portfolio management: Identifying and overcoming control problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – As public organizations strive for higher e-government maturity, information technology (IT) Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. Assuming control is central in IT PPM, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how a Danish local government conducts...... workshop, and analyses of documents. Findings – It is found that the local government relies vastly on informal control mechanisms and five control problems are identified: weak accountability processes between the political and administrative level; weak accountability between the director level...... the identified control problems. Research limitations/implications – As a single qualitative case study, the results are limited to one organization and subject. Practical implications – The paper has implications for IT PPM in Danish local governments and similar organizations in other countries. The paper...

  18. Parametric Portfolio Policies with Common Volatility Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Taamouti, Abderrahim

    A parametric portfolio policy function is considered that incorporates common stock volatility dynamics to optimally determine portfolio weights. Reducing dimension of the traditional portfolio selection problem significantly, only a number of policy parameters corresponding to first- and second......-order characteristics are estimated based on a standard method-of-moments technique. The method, allowing for the calculation of portfolio weight and return statistics, is illustrated with an empirical application to 30 U.S. industries to study the economic activity before and after the recent financial crisis....

  19. Robust Active Portfolio Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Erdogan, E; Goldfarb, D; Iyengar, G

    2006-01-01

    ... on the portfolio beta, and limits on cash and industry exposure. We show that the optimal portfolios can be computed by solving second-order cone programs -- a class of optimization problems with a worst case complexity (i.e...

  20. Mitigating Pollution of Hazardous Materials from WEEE of China: Portfolio Selection for a sustainable future based on Multi-Criteria Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    An, Da; Yang, Yu; Chai, Xilong

    2015-01-01

    In order to solve the environmental contaminations and human health problems caused by the inappropriate treatment of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) in China, sustainable e-waste treatment has emerged in China's WEEE recycling industry. This study aims to develop a multi......-criteria decision making method by integrating interval Analytic Hierarchy Process and interval VIKOR method for China's stakeholders to select the most efficacious portfolio for solving the severe problems caused by the informal e-waste recycling and promote the development of China's WEEE recycling industry...... in a sustainable approach. An illustrative case in Guiyu has been studied by the developed method, and the results show that the portfolio of supporting the informal peddlers for legal transition, investing on infrastructure for WEEE recycling, training and education on China's residents, and restricting...

  1. A methodology for the valuation and selection of adaptable technology portfolios and its application to small and medium airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinon, Olivia J.

    -step process developed in this research leverages the benefits yielded by impact assessment techniques, system dynamics modeling, and real options analysis to 1) provide the decision maker with a rigorous, structured, and traceable process for technology selection, 2) assess the combined impact of interrelated technologies, 3) support the translation of technology impact factors into airport performance indicators, and help identify the factors that drive the need for capacity expansion, and finally 4) enable the quantitative assessment of the strategic value of embedding flexibility in the formulation of technology portfolios and investment options. In particular, the development of this methodology highlights the successful implementation of relevance tree analysis, morphological analysis, filters and dependency tables to support the aforementioned process for technology selection. Further, it illustrates the limited capability of Cross Impact Analysis to identify technology relationships for the problem at hand. Finally, this methodology demonstrates, through a change in demand at the airport modeled, the importance of being able to weigh both the technological and strategic performance of the technology portfolios considered. In particular, it illustrates the impact that the level of traffic, the presence of congestion, the timing and sequence of investments, and the number of technologies included, have on the strategic value of a portfolio. Hence, by capturing the time dimension and technology causality impacts in technology portfolio selection, this work helps identify key technologies or technology groupings, and assess their performance on airport metrics. By embedding flexibility in the formulation of investment scenarios, it provides the decision maker with a more accurate picture of the options available to him, as well as the time and sequence under which these should be exercised.

  2. Managing risk and expected financial return from selective expansion of operating room capacity: mean-variance analysis of a hospital's portfolio of surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes

    2003-07-01

    Surgeons using the same amount of operating room (OR) time differ in their achieved hospital contribution margins (revenue minus variable costs) by >1000%. Thus, to improve the financial return from perioperative facilities, OR strategic decisions should selectively focus additional OR capacity and capital purchasing on a few surgeons or subspecialties. These decisions use estimates of each surgeon's and/or subspecialty's contribution margin per OR hour. The estimates are subject to uncertainty (e.g., from outliers). We account for the uncertainties by using mean-variance portfolio analysis (i.e., quadratic programming). This method characterizes the problem of selectively expanding OR capacity based on the expected financial return and risk of different portfolios of surgeons. The assessment reveals whether the choices, of which surgeons have their OR capacity expanded, are sensitive to the uncertainties in the surgeons' contribution margins per OR hour. Thus, mean-variance analysis reduces the chance of making strategic decisions based on spurious information. We also assess the financial benefit of using mean-variance portfolio analysis when the planned expansion of OR capacity is well diversified over at least several surgeons or subspecialties. Our results show that, in such circumstances, there may be little benefit from further changing the portfolio to reduce its financial risk. Surgeon and subspecialty specific hospital financial data are uncertain, a fact that should be taken into account when making decisions about expanding operating room capacity. We show that mean-variance portfolio analysis can incorporate this uncertainty, thereby guiding operating room management decision-making and reducing the chance of a strategic decision being made based on spurious information.

  3. The Effect of Exit Strategy on Optimal Portfolio Selection with Birandom Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Cao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this paper are to use a birandom variable to denote the stock return selected by some recurring technical patterns and to study the effect of exit strategy on optimal portfolio selection with birandom returns. Firstly, we propose a new method to estimate the stock return and use birandom distribution to denote the final stock return which can reflect the features of technical patterns and investors' heterogeneity simultaneously; secondly, we build a birandom safety-first model and design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to help investors make decisions; finally, we innovatively study the effect of exit strategy on the given birandom safety-first model. The results indicate that (1 the exit strategy affects the proportion of portfolio, (2 the performance of taking the exit strategy is better than when the exit strategy is not taken, if the stop-loss point and the stop-profit point are appropriately set, and (3 the investor using the exit strategy become conservative.

  4. Multi-objective possibilistic model for portfolio selection with transaction cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, P.; Roy, T. K.; Mazumder, S. K.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce the possibilistic mean value and variance of continuous distribution, rather than probability distributions. We propose a multi-objective Portfolio based model and added another entropy objective function to generate a well diversified asset portfolio within optimal asset allocation. For quantifying any potential return and risk, portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a multi-objective non-linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction cost is proposed. The models are illustrated with numerical examples.

  5. Extension of portfolio theory application to energy planning problem – The Italian case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnesano, M.; Carlucci, A.P.; Laforgia, D.

    2012-01-01

    Energy procurement is a necessity which needs a deep study of both the demand and the generation sources, referred to consumers territorial localization. The study presented in this paper extends and consolidate the Shimon Awerbuch’s study on portfolio theory applied to the energy planning, in order to define a broad generating mix which optimizes one or more objective functions defined for a determined contest. For this purpose the computation model was specialized in energy generation problem and extended with the addition of new cost-risk settings, like renewable energy availability, and Black–Litterman model, which extends Markowitz theory. Energy planning was then contextualized to the territory: the introduction of geographic and climatic features allows to plan energy infrastructures on both global and local (regional, provincial, municipal) scale. The result is an efficient decision making tool to drive the investment on typical energy policy assets. In general the tool allows to analyze several scenarios in support of renewable energy sources, environmental sustainability, costs and risks reduction. In this paper the model was applied to the energy generation in Italy, and the analysis was done: on the actual energy mix; assuming the use of nuclear technology; assuming the verisimilar improvement of several technologies in the future. -- Highlights: ► Extension and consolidation of Shimon Awerbuch’s studies. ► Introduction of aspects connected to realization and utilization of power plants. ► Application of the model on a national, provincial, municipal scale. ► Modification of Energy Portfolio based on subjective previsions (Black–Litterman).

  6. A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.

  7. A fuzzy compromise programming approach for the Black-Litterman portfolio selection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Gharakhani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine advanced optimization approach for portfolio problem introduced by Black and Litterman to consider the shortcomings of Markowitz standard Mean-Variance optimization. Black and Litterman propose a new approach to estimate asset return. They present a way to incorporate the investor’s views into asset pricing process. Since the investor’s view about future asset return is always subjective and imprecise, we can represent it by using fuzzy numbers and the resulting model is multi-objective linear programming. Therefore, the proposed model is analyzed through fuzzy compromise programming approach using appropriate membership function. For this purpose, we introduce the fuzzy ideal solution concept based on investor preference and indifference relationships using canonical representation of proposed fuzzy numbers by means of their correspondingα-cuts. A real world numerical example is presented in which MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International Index is chosen as the target index. The results are reported for a portfolio consisting of the six national indices. The performance of the proposed models is compared using several financial criteria.

  8. Switching portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Y

    1997-08-01

    A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are competitive with the best constant rebalanced portfolio determined in hindsight (Cover, 1991; Helmbold et al., 1996; Cover and Ordentlich, 1996). By their nature, these algorithms employ the assumption that high returns can be achieved using a fixed asset allocation strategy. However, stock markets are far from being stationary and in many cases the wealth achieved by a constant rebalanced portfolio is much smaller than the wealth achieved by an ad hoc investment strategy that adapts to changes in the market. In this paper we present an efficient portfolio selection algorithm that is able to track a changing market. We also describe a simple extension of the algorithm for the case of a general transaction cost, including the transactions cost models recently investigated in (Blum and Kalai, 1997). We provide a simple analysis of the competitiveness of the algorithm and check its performance on real stock data from the New York Stock Exchange accumulated during a 22-year period. On this data, our algorithm outperforms all the algorithms referenced above, with and without transaction costs.

  9. Integration of a Portfolio-based Approach to Evaluate Aerospace R and D Problem Formulation Into a Parametric Synthesis Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Amit R.

    The focus of this study is to improve R&D effectiveness towards aerospace and defense planning in the early stages of the product development lifecycle. Emphasis is on: correct formulation of a decision problem, with special attention to account for data relationships between the individual design problem and the system capability required to size the aircraft, understanding of the meaning of the acquisition strategy objective and subjective data requirements that are required to arrive at a balanced analysis and/or "correct" mix of technology projects, understanding the meaning of the outputs that can be created from the technology analysis, and methods the researcher can use at effectively support decisions at the acquisition and conceptual design levels through utilization of a research and development portfolio strategy. The primary objectives of this study are to: (1) determine what strategy should be used to initialize conceptual design parametric sizing processes during requirements analysis for the materiel solution analysis stage of the product development lifecycle when utilizing data already constructed in the latter phase when working with a generic database management system synthesis tool integration architecture for aircraft design , and (2) assess how these new data relationships can contribute for innovative decision-making when solving acquisition hardware/technology portfolio problems. As such, an automated composable problem formulation system is developed to consider data interactions for the system architecture that manages acquisition pre-design concept refinement portfolio management, and conceptual design parametric sizing requirements. The research includes a way to: • Formalize the data storage and implement the data relationship structure with a system architecture automated through a database management system. • Allow for composable modeling, in terms of level of hardware abstraction, for the product model, mission model, and

  10. HEURISTIC APPROACHES FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Manfred Gilli, Evis Kellezi

    2000-01-01

    The paper first compares the use of optimization heuristics to the classical optimization techniques for the selection of optimal portfolios. Second, the heuristic approach is applied to problems other than those in the standard mean-variance framework where the classical optimization fails.

  11. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland. A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allan, Grant; Eromenko, Igor; McGregor, Peter [Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom); Swales, Kim [Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE (United Kingdom)

    2011-01-15

    Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance 'inefficient' in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost. (author)

  12. Decentralized portfolio management

    OpenAIRE

    Coutinho, Paulo; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

    2003-01-01

    We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equiva...

  13. Concurrent credit portfolio losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicking, Joachim; Guhr, Thomas; Schäfer, Rudi

    2018-01-01

    We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. JEL codes: C32, F34, G21, G32, H81.

  14. Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Cong (Fei); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThis paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method

  15. Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cong, F.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method (SGBM), for

  16. Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cong, F.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method (SGBM), for

  17. A Portfolio for Optimal Collaboration of Human and Cyber Physical Production Systems in Problem-Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Fazel; Seidenberg, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses the complementarity of human and cyber physical production systems (CPPS). The discourse of complementarity is elaborated by defining five criteria for comparing the characteristics of human and CPPS. Finally, a management portfolio matrix is proposed for examining the feasibility of optimal collaboration between them. The…

  18. Multiperiod Telser’s Safety-First Portfolio Selection with Regime Switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuangwei Lin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a multiperiod Telser’s safety-first portfolio selection model with regime switching where the returns of the assets are assumed to depend on the market states modulated by a discrete-time Markov chain. The investor aims to maximize the expected terminal wealth and does not want the probability of the terminal wealth to fall short of a disaster level to exceed a predetermined number called the risk control level. Referring to Tchebycheff inequality, we modify Telser’s safety-first model to the case that aims to maximize the expected terminal wealth subject to a constraint where the upper bound of the disaster probability is less than the risk control level. By the Lagrange multiplier technique and the embedding method, we study in detail the existence of the optimal strategy and derive the closed-form optimal strategy. Finally, by mathematical and numerical analysis, we analyze the effects of the disaster level, the risk control level, the transition matrix of the Markov chain, the expected excess return, and the variance of the risky return.

  19. Growth Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Proportional Transaction Costs with Obligatory Diversification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, T.; Pasik Duncan, B.; Stettner, L.

    2011-01-01

    A continuous time long run growth optimal or optimal logarithmic utility portfolio with proportional transaction costs consisting of a fixed proportional cost and a cost proportional to the volume of transaction is considered. The asset prices are modeled as exponent of diffusion with jumps whose parameters depend on a finite state Markov process of economic factors. An obligatory portfolio diversification is introduced, accordingly to which it is required to invest at least a fixed small portion of our wealth in each asset.

  20. Portfolio Optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Issagali, Aizhan; Alshimbayeva, Damira; Zhalgas, Aidana

    2015-01-01

    In this paper Portfolio Optimization techniques were used to determine the most favorable investment portfolio. In particular, stock indices of three companies, namely Microsoft Corporation, Christian Dior Fashion House and Shevron Corporation were evaluated. Using this data the amounts invested in each asset when a portfolio is chosen on the efficient frontier were calculated. In addition, the Portfolio with minimum variance, tangency portfolio and optimal Markowitz portfolio are presented.

  1. A multi-attribute decision model for portfolio selection aiming to replace technologies in industrial motor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderley Herrero Sola, Antonio; Mota, Caroline Maria de Miranda

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We propose a multicriteria decision model for technology replacement. ► We prioritize induction motors in order to improve the energy efficiency. ► The best portfolio of options is selected based on decision maker’s utilities. ► The model contribute to surpass some organizational barriers. - Abstract: The energy efficient technologies offered by the market are in constant evolution, but their insertion in the productive sector comes up against organizational barriers, which obstruct decision making in firms. This paper proposes a multicriteria decision model in order to replace technologies in industrial energy systems, regarding organizational barriers for energy efficiency. The proposed model is applied in industrial motor systems, using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), in order to select the best portfolio of options based on the decision maker’s utilities. Portfolios of options from the prioritized set of motors compiled by the operational area of the studied industry are analyzed, including diverse suppliers and different classes of motors. The results show that it is essential to structure the proposed model in two steps, beginning with the operational level, to ensure that important technologies for the production system are prioritized, thus preserving the interests of the organization and improving the efficiency of industrial energy systems.

  2. Generalizable open source urban water portfolio simulation framework demonstrated using a multi-objective risk-based planning benchmark problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.

    2017-12-01

    The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.

  3. Cointegration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets for Risk Management and Portfolio Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldrin Herwany

    2008-09-01

    This study assesses the cointegration and causal relations among seven developed Asian markets, i.e., Tokyo, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Shanghai, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur stock exchanges, using more frequent time series data. It employs the recently developed techniques for investigating unit roots, cointegration, time-varying volatility, and causality in variance. For estimating portfolio market risk, this study employs Value-at-Risk with delta normal approach. The results would recommend whether fund managers are able to diversify their portfolio in these developed stock markets either in long run or in short run.

  4. Cross sectional moments and portfolio returns: Evidence for select emerging markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Sehgal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Research does not indicate a consensus on the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and asset returns. Moreover, the role of cross sectional higher order moments in predicting market returns is relatively unexplored. We show that the cross sectional volatility measure suggested by Garcia et al. is highly correlated with alternative measures of idiosyncratic volatility constructed as variance of errors from the capital asset pricing model and the Fama French model. We find that cross sectional moments help in predicting aggregate market returns in some sample countries and also provide information for portfolio formation, which is more consistent for portfolios sorted on sensitivity to cross sectional skewness.

  5. Research mathematicians’ practices in selecting mathematical problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Johansen, Mikkel Willum

    2015-01-01

    mathematicians select and pose problems and discuss to what extent our results can be used to inform, criticize, and develop educational practice at various levels. Selecting and posing problems is far from simple. In fact, it is considered hard, complex, and of crucial importance. A number of criteria...

  6. Research Mathematicians' Practices in Selecting Mathematical Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misfeldt, Morten; Johansen, Mikkel Willum

    2015-01-01

    Developing abilities to create, inquire into, qualify, and choose among mathematical problems is an important educational goal. In this paper, we elucidate how mathematicians work with mathematical problems in order to understand this mathematical process. More specifically, we investigate how mathematicians select and pose problems and discuss to…

  7. Automatic Algorithm Selection for Complex Simulation Problems

    CERN Document Server

    Ewald, Roland

    2012-01-01

    To select the most suitable simulation algorithm for a given task is often difficult. This is due to intricate interactions between model features, implementation details, and runtime environment, which may strongly affect the overall performance. An automated selection of simulation algorithms supports users in setting up simulation experiments without demanding expert knowledge on simulation. Roland Ewald analyzes and discusses existing approaches to solve the algorithm selection problem in the context of simulation. He introduces a framework for automatic simulation algorithm selection and

  8. Continuous-Time Portfolio Selection and Option Pricing under Risk-Minimization Criterion in an Incomplete Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinfeng Ruan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study option pricing with risk-minimization criterion in an incomplete market where the dynamics of the risky underlying asset are governed by a jump diffusion equation. We obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative in the minimal martingale measure and a partial integrodifferential equation (PIDE of European call option. In a special case, we get the exact solution for European call option by Fourier transformation methods. Finally, we employ the pricing kernel to calculate the optimal portfolio selection by martingale methods.

  9. Risk-averse portfolio selection of renewable electricity generator investments in Brazil: An optimised multi-market commercialisation strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier, Sebastian; Street, Alexandre; McKinnon, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. - Highlights: • Gives a portfolio-based multi-market, multi-asset approach to renewable investment. • Details how to model currently used contract types in each of the Brazilian markets. • Presents a test case using realistic contract and real renewable data from Brazil. • Shows that the approach controls financial risks and boosts optimal values. • Explains how relative contract prices and attitude to risk affect optimal decisions.

  10. Application of a General Risk Management Model to Portfolio Optimization Problems with Elliptical Distributed Returns for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Decision Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show

  11. Leptokurtic portfolio theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.

    2006-03-01

    The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.

  12. Aircraft technology portfolio optimization using ant colony optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeneuve, Frederic J.; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-11-01

    Technology portfolio selection is a combinatorial optimization problem often faced with a large number of combinations and technology incompatibilities. The main research question addressed in this article is to determine if Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is better suited than Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing (SA) for technology portfolio optimization when incompatibility constraints between technologies are present. Convergence rate, capability to find optima, and efficiency in handling of incompatibilities are the three criteria of comparison. The application problem consists of finding the best technology portfolio from 29 aircraft technologies. The results show that ACO and GAs converge faster and find optima more easily than SA, and that ACO can optimize portfolios with technology incompatibilities without using penalty functions. This latter finding paves the way for more use of ACO when the number of constraints increases, such as in the technology and concept selection for complex engineering systems.

  13. Markowitz portfolio optimization model employing fuzzy measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Suhailywati; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

    2017-04-01

    Markowitz in 1952 introduced the mean-variance methodology for the portfolio selection problems. His pioneering research has shaped the portfolio risk-return model and become one of the most important research fields in modern finance. This paper extends the classical Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model applying the fuzzy measure to determine the risk and return. In this paper, we apply the original mean-variance model as a benchmark, fuzzy mean-variance model with fuzzy return and the model with return are modeled by specific types of fuzzy number for comparison. The model with fuzzy approach gives better performance as compared to the mean-variance approach. The numerical examples are included to illustrate these models by employing Malaysian share market data.

  14. Portfolio optimization with structured products under return constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baweja Meena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new approach for optimizing risk in a portfolio of financial instruments involving structured products is presented. This paper deals with a portfolio selection model which uses optimization methodology to minimize conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR under return constraint. It focuses on minimizing CVaR rather than on minimizing value-at-Risk VaR, as portfolios with low CVaR necessarily have low VaR as well. We consider a simple investment problem where besides stocks and bonds, the investor can also include structured products into the investment portfolio. Due to possible intermediate payments from structured product, we have to deal with a re-investment problem modeled as a linear optimization problem.

  15. A Risk-Free Protection Index Model for Portfolio Selection with Entropy Constraint under an Uncertainty Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwei Gao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a risk-free protection index model for portfolio selection based on the uncertain theory. First, the returns of risk assets are assumed as uncertain variables and subject to reputable experts’ evaluations. Second, under this assumption, combining with the risk-free interest rate we define a risk-free protection index (RFPI, which can measure the protection degree when the loss of risk assets happens. Third, note that the proportion entropy serves as a complementary means to reduce the risk by the preset diversification requirement. We put forward a risk-free protection index model with an entropy constraint under an uncertainty framework by applying the RFPI, Huang’s risk index model (RIM, and mean-variance-entropy model (MVEM. Furthermore, to solve our portfolio model, an algorithm is given to estimate the uncertain expected return and standard deviation of different risk assets by applying the Delphi method. Finally, an example is provided to show that the risk-free protection index model performs better than the traditional MVEM and RIM.

  16. Some problems on selections for hyperspace topologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Gutev

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The theory of hyperspaces has attracted the attention of many mathematicians who have found a large variety of its applications during the last decades. The theory has taken also its natural course and has yielded lots of problems which, besides their independent inner beauty, provide ties with numerous classical fields of mathematics. In the present note we are concerned with some open problems about selections for hyperspace topologies which have been in the scope of our recent research interests.

  17. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  18. The Quadratic Selective Travelling Salesman Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomadsen, Tommy; Stidsen, Thomas K.

    2003-01-01

    A well-known extension of the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) is the Selective TSP (STSP): Each node has an associated profit and instead of visiting all nodes, the most profitable set of nodes, taking into account the tour cost, is visited. The Quadratic STSP (QSTSP) adds the additional...

  19. Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn

    2015-02-01

    In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.

  20. IT Project Portfolio Management: Vertical and Horizontal Work Design Problems in a Public Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian

    2013-01-01

    arbejder på at forbedre dens IT PPM praksisser. Undersøgelsen anvender Work Design Teori til at analysere kommunens IT PPM praksisser på tværs af hierarkiske niveauer og organisatoriske enheder i bestræbelsen på, at besvare følgende tre forskningsspørgsmål:(1) Hvordan udfører en offentlig organisation...... and Van De Ven’s (2005) Work Design Teori, der sondrer mellem vertikal- og horisontal arbejdsdeling. Vertikal deling af arbejde bliver betragtet som fordelingen af autoritet, viden og resurser, hvilket undersøgelsen finder værende delt ud på fire hierarkiske niveauer: (1) det politiske niveau med den...... af det andet forskningsspørgsmål anvendes Work Design Teori til at identificere problemer indenfor tre relaterede problemområder: hierarkiske dekompositions problemer, modularitets problemer og komplekse netværks problemer. De identificerede problemer er sammenfattet i en model bestående af 14...

  1. IT Project Portfolio Management: Vertical and Horizontal Work Design Problems in a Public Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian

    dansk kommune, der arbejder på at forbedre dens IT PPM praksisser. Undersøgelsen anvender Work Design Teori til at analysere kommunens IT PPM praksisser på tværs af hierarkiske niveauer og organisatoriske enheder i bestræbelsen på, at besvare følgende tre forskningsspørgsmål:(1) Hvordan udfører en...... at trække på Sinha and Van De Ven’s (2005) Work Design Teori, der sondrer mellem vertikal- og horisontal arbejdsdeling. Vertikal deling af arbejde bliver betragtet som fordelingen af autoritet, viden og resurser, hvilket undersøgelsen finder værende delt ud på fire hierarkiske niveauer: (1) det politiske...... kommunens IT projektgrupper. I besvarelsen af det andet forskningsspørgsmål anvendes Work Design Teori til at identificere problemer indenfor tre relaterede problemområder: hierarkiske dekompositions problemer, modularitets problemer og komplekse netværks problemer. De identificerede problemer er...

  2. Geometrical framework for robust portfolio optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Bazovkin, Pavel

    2014-01-01

    We consider a vector-valued multivariate risk measure that depends on the user's profile given by the user's utility. It is constructed on the basis of weighted-mean trimmed regions and represents the solution of an optimization problem. The key feature of this measure is convexity. We apply the measure to the portfolio selection problem, employing different measures of performance as objective functions in a common geometrical framework.

  3. PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION ON CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Bogdan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this paper was to research portfolio optimization problem on Croatian capital market using Markowitz theory. Research systematically investigated the selection of securities, and defined the importance of using fundamental analysis when selecting the best combination of securities. Since fundamental analysis involves a large number of indicators, this paper selected key indicators that enable a complete and quick securities review on the market. This paper clarifies diversification effect and influence of the correlation coefficient on diversification. Two basic types of assets (stocks and cash funds have been chosen to build the optimal portfolio. Cash funds were selected because they represent a form of risk-free investment, while stocks were chosen because of the high level of return which they achieve. At the end of paper, optimal portfolio was calculated with an excellent yield of 1.82% and deviation of 5.77% on a monthly basis which corresponds to the minimum deviation of the selected stocks. Calculated optimal portfolio achieves better expected value than investing in stock index CROBEX, which for the same period achieves the expected result of -0.02%.

  4. Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Vincenzo Tola; Fabrizio Lillo; Mauro Gallegati; Rosario N. Mantegna

    2005-01-01

    We consider the problem of the statistical uncertainty of the correlation matrix in the optimization of a financial portfolio. We show that the use of clustering algorithms can improve the reliability of the portfolio in terms of the ratio between predicted and realized risk. Bootstrap analysis indicates that this improvement is obtained in a wide range of the parameters N (number of assets) and T (investment horizon). The predicted and realized risk level and the relative portfolio compositi...

  5. Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Širůček

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on building investment portfolios by using the Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT. Derivation based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is used to calculate the weights of individual securities in portfolios. The calculated portfolios include a portfolio copying the benchmark made using the CAPM model, portfolio with low and high beta coefficients, and a random portfolio. Only stocks were selected for the examined sample from all the asset classes. Stocks in each portfolio are put together according to predefined criteria. All stocks were selected from Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA index which serves as a benchmark, too. Portfolios were compared based on their risk and return profiles. The results of this work will provide general recommendations on the optimal approach to choose securities for an investor’s portfolio.

  6. A Class of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation Problems with a Linear Decreasing Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangming Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A problem of an optimal liquidation is investigated by using the Almgren-Chriss market impact model on the background that the n agents liquidate assets completely. The impact of market is divided into three components: unaffected price process, permanent impact, and temporary impact. The key element is that the variable temporary market impact is analyzed. When the temporary market impact is decreasing linearly, the optimal problem is described by a Nash equilibrium in finite time horizon. The stochastic component of the price process is eliminated from the mean-variance. Mathematically, the Nash equilibrium is considered as the second-order linear differential equation with variable coefficients. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the differential equation with two boundaries and find the closed-form solutions in special situations. The numerical examples and properties of the solution are given. The corresponding finance phenomenon is interpreted.

  7. A NAÏVE APPROACH TO SPEED UP PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM USING A MULTIOBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baixauli-Soler, J. Samuel

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Genetic algorithms (GAs are appropriate when investors have the objective of obtaining mean‑variance (VaR efficient frontier as minimising VaR leads to non‑convex and non‑differential risk‑return optimisation problems. However GAs are a time‑consuming optimisation technique. In this paper, we propose to use a naïve approach consisting of using samples split by quartile of risk to obtain complete efficient frontiers in a reasonable computation time. Our results show that using reduced problems which only consider a quartile of the assets allow us to explore the efficient frontier for a large range of risk values. In particular, the third quartile allows us to obtain efficient frontiers from the 1.8% to 2.5% level of VaR quickly, while that of the first quartile of assets is from 1% to 1.3% level of VaR.

  8. DEVELOPING A MODULAR PORTFOLIO SELECTION MODEL FOR SHORT-TERM AND LONGTERM MARKET TRENDS AND MASS PSYCHOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jasemi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an effort to model stock markets, many researchers have developed portfolio selection models to maximise investor satisfaction. However, this field still needs more accurate and comprehensive models. Development of these models is difficult because of unpredictable economic, social, and political variables that affect stock market behaviour. In this paper, a new model with three modules for portfolio optimisation is presented. The first module derives the efficient frontier through a new approach; the second presents an intelligent mechanism for emitting trading signals; while the third module integrates the outputs of the first two modules. Some important features of the model in comparison with others are: 1 consideration of investors’ emotions – the psychology of the market – that arises from the three above-mentioned factors; 2 significant loosening of simplifying assumptions about markets and stocks; and 3 greater sensitivity to new data.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In ‘n poging om aandelemarkte te modelleer het verskeie navorsers portefeulje-seleksiemodelle ontwikkel om beleggers se tevredenheid te maksimiseer. Desnieteenstaande word meer akkurate en omvattende modelle benodig. Die ontwikkeling van hierdie modelle word bemoeilik deur die onvoorspelbare ekonomiese, sosiale en politiese veranderlikes wat aandelemarkte se gedrag raak. In hierdie artikel word ‘n nuwe model voorgehou wat bestaan uit drie modules vir portefeulje-optimisering. Die eerste module bepaal die doelmatigheidsgrens op ‘n nuwe metode; die tweede hou ‘n intelligente meganisme voor om transaksieseine te lewer terwyl die derde module die uitsette van die eerste twee modules integreer. Sommige van die belangrike eienskappe van die model wat dit van ander onderskei is: 1 konsiderasie van die beleggers se emosies – die sielkunde van die mark – wat ontstaan vanweë die genoemde faktore; 2 betekenisvolle verslapping van die

  9. Teacher Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe-Quintero, Kate; Brown, James Dean

    1998-01-01

    A portfolio of achievements, experiences, and reflections can help English-as-a-Second-Language teachers attain professional development goals and offer administrators greater insight for making informed hiring and job-performance decisions. This paper focuses on what teacher portfolios are, what their contents should be, and what their uses are…

  10. Teaching Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Christian Fischer

    The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark.......The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark....

  11. Customer portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clarke, Ann Højbjerg; Freytag, Per Vagn; Zolkiewski, Judith

    2017-01-01

    gives managers a tool to help to cope with the dynamic aspects of the customer portfolio. Recognition of the importance of communication to the process, the development of trust and the role of legitimacy also provides areas that managers can focus upon in their relationship management processes......Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend the discussion about customer portfolios beyond simple identification of models and how they can be used for balanced resource allocation to a discussion about how portfolios should take into account views from relationship partners and how they should...... that helps improve the understanding of how customer portfolio models can actually be applied from a relational perspective. Findings The key aspects of the conceptual framework relate to how alignment of the relationships in the portfolio is achieved. Critical to this are the interaction spaces...

  12. Decentralized Portfolio Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equivalent. We use multivariate normal returns and a negative exponential function to solve the problem analytically. We generate the equivalence of solutions by assuming that different traders face different interest rates for borrowing and lending. This interest rate is dependent on the ratio of the degrees of risk aversion of the trader and the head trader, on the excess return, and on the correlation between asset returns.

  13. Optimization methods for activities selection problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahad, Nor Faradilah; Alias, Suriana; Yaakop, Siti Zulaika; Arshad, Norul Amanina Mohd; Mazni, Elis Sofia

    2017-08-01

    Co-curriculum activities must be joined by every student in Malaysia and these activities bring a lot of benefits to the students. By joining these activities, the students can learn about the time management and they can developing many useful skills. This project focuses on the selection of co-curriculum activities in secondary school using the optimization methods which are the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Zero-One Goal Programming (ZOGP). A secondary school in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia was chosen as a case study. A set of questionnaires were distributed randomly to calculate the weighted for each activity based on the 3 chosen criteria which are soft skills, interesting activities and performances. The weighted was calculated by using AHP and the results showed that the most important criteria is soft skills. Then, the ZOGP model will be analyzed by using LINGO Software version 15.0. There are two priorities to be considered. The first priority which is to minimize the budget for the activities is achieved since the total budget can be reduced by RM233.00. Therefore, the total budget to implement the selected activities is RM11,195.00. The second priority which is to select the co-curriculum activities is also achieved. The results showed that 9 out of 15 activities were selected. Thus, it can concluded that AHP and ZOGP approach can be used as the optimization methods for activities selection problem.

  14. Universal portfolios generated by the Bregman divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Choon Peng; Kuang, Kee Seng

    2017-04-01

    The Bregman divergence of two probability vectors is a stronger form of the f-divergence introduced by Csiszar. Two versions of the Bregman universal portfolio are presented by exploiting the mean-value theorem. The explicit form of the Bregman universal portfolio generated by a function of a convex polynomial is derived and studied empirically. This portfolio can be regarded as another generalized of the well-known Helmbold portfolio. By running the portfolios on selected stock-price data sets from the local stock exchange, it is shown that it is possible to increase the wealth of the investor by using the portfolios in investment.

  15. Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

    2010-09-01

    We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

  16. Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

    2010-01-01

    We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

  17. Hierarchical Portfolio Management: Theory and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Ning (Haikun)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractUnder his own preference, how should an investor coordinate the asset managers such that his aggregated portfolio is optimized? The efficiency of each managed sub portfolio and the aggregation of all the sub portfolios are the 2 main underlying problems considered in this dissertation.

  18. Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Heinz H.

    2017-01-01

    This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance

  19. Formal Method of Description Supporting Portfolio Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Yasuhiko; Ueno, Maomi; Kikukawa, Isao; Yokoyama, Setsuo; Miyadera, Youzou

    2006-01-01

    Teachers need to assess learner portfolios in the field of education. However, they need support in the process of designing and practicing what kind of portfolios are to be assessed. To solve the problem, a formal method of describing the relations between the lesson forms and portfolios that need to be collected and the relations between…

  20. A Project Strategic Index proposal for portfolio selection in electrical company based on the Analytic Network Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith-Perera, Aida [Universidad Metropolitana de Caracas, Departamento de Gestion Tecnologica, Caracas 1071, Edo Miranda (Venezuela); Garcia-Melon, Monica; Poveda-Bautista, Rocio; Pastor-Ferrando, Juan-Pascual [Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Departamento de Proyectos de Ingenieria, Camino de vera s/n 46022 Valencia (Spain)

    2010-08-15

    In this paper a new approach to prioritize project portfolio in an efficient and reliable way is presented. It is based on strategic objectives of the company and multicriteria decision methods. The paper introduces a rigorous method with acceptable complexity which seeks to assist managers of a big Electrical Company of Venezuela to distribute the annual budget among the possible improvement actions to be conducted on the electrical network of Caracas. A total of 15 network improvement actions grouped into three clusters according to the strategic objectives of the company have been analyzed using the Project Strategic Index (PSI) proposed. The approach combines the use of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method with the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process. The ANP method allows the aggregation of the experts' judgments on each of the indicators used into one Project Strategic Index. In addition, ANP is based on utility ratio functions which are the most appropriate for the analysis of uncertain data, like experts' estimations. Finally, unlike the other multicriteria techniques, ANP allows the decision problem to be modelled using the relationships among dependent criteria. The participating experts coincided in the appreciation that the method proposed in this paper is useful and an improvement from traditional budget distribution techniques. They find the results obtained coherent, the process seems sufficiently rigorous and precise, and the use of resources is significantly less than in other methods. (author)

  1. A Project Strategic Index proposal for portfolio selection in electrical company based on the Analytic Network Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith-Perera, Aida; Garcia-Melon, Monica; Poveda-Bautista, Rocio; Pastor-Ferrando, Juan-Pascual

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a new approach to prioritize project portfolio in an efficient and reliable way is presented. It is based on strategic objectives of the company and multicriteria decision methods. The paper introduces a rigorous method with acceptable complexity which seeks to assist managers of a big Electrical Company of Venezuela to distribute the annual budget among the possible improvement actions to be conducted on the electrical network of Caracas. A total of 15 network improvement actions grouped into three clusters according to the strategic objectives of the company have been analyzed using the Project Strategic Index (PSI) proposed. The approach combines the use of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method with the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process. The ANP method allows the aggregation of the experts' judgments on each of the indicators used into one Project Strategic Index. In addition, ANP is based on utility ratio functions which are the most appropriate for the analysis of uncertain data, like experts' estimations. Finally, unlike the other multicriteria techniques, ANP allows the decision problem to be modelled using the relationships among dependent criteria. The participating experts coincided in the appreciation that the method proposed in this paper is useful and an improvement from traditional budget distribution techniques. They find the results obtained coherent, the process seems sufficiently rigorous and precise, and the use of resources is significantly less than in other methods. (author)

  2. Portfolio Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Sharon L.

    2011-01-01

    Enterprise Business Information Services Division (EBIS) supports the Laboratory and its functions through the implementation and support of business information systems on behalf of its business community. EBIS Five Strategic Focus Areas: (1) Improve project estimating, planning and delivery capability (2) Improve maintainability and sustainability of EBIS Application Portfolio (3) Leap forward in IT Leadership (4) Comprehensive Talent Management (5) Continuous IT Security Program. Portfolio Management is a strategy in which software applications are managed as assets

  3. Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Brito, R. Pedro; Vicente, Luís Nunes

    2014-01-01

    International audience; We propose a novel approach to handle cardinality in portfolio selection, by means of a biobjective cardinality/mean-variance problem, allowing the investor to analyze the efficient tradeoff between return-risk and number of active positions. Recent progress in multiobjective optimization without derivatives allow us to robustly compute (in-sample) the whole cardinality/mean-variance efficient frontier, for a variety of data sets and mean-variance models. Our results s...

  4. Selection problems and objectives in mutation breeding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac Key, J.

    1984-01-01

    In plant breeding, major genes are preferably handled by inbreeding, back-crosses and selection through the family/pedigree method. Polygenic systems need gene accumulation, i.e. handling in bulk allowing natural/recurrent selection to operate. The two types of genetic control normally occur together irrespective of whether the variation is created by crossing or by mutagenesis. Cross-breeding can conveniently work with both types of variation and offers a range of genetic backgrounds. Problems are the often enormous recombination potential risking the break-down of already accomplished genic constellations or undesirable linkages. Mutation induction implies a scattered mono- to oligo-factorial variation mostly functioning as a negative load. As a result, it will be difficult and unrealistic to try to explore micromutations, as defined by Gaul, in vegetatively propagated and autogamous crop plants. Quantitative analyses have not been able to give guidance since the induced variation includes disturbed vitality and main or side-effects of events that are possible to define as macro-mutations. The possibility of better exhausting the variation induced will mainly depend on the precision in selection techniques, i.e. by dividing complex traits into their components, by improving environmental conditions for selection, and/or by sharpening the screening technique. Contrary to recombination breeding, mutation-induced variation does not fit a plan encompassing overall agronomic traits simultaneously. The progress has to go step by step. Thus, even more than in cross-breeding, it is important that accurately outlined objectives be set. Some characters, such as flower colour, can easily be defined while others, such as yield, may be more interdependent, calling for compromises difficult to foresee. The complexity of the latter category of traits is illustrated by the interaction pattern in relation to grain yield in cereals where both shoot and root are considered

  5. Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

    2013-04-01

    Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

  6. Privacy problems in the small sample selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Cerbara

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The side of social research that uses small samples for the production of micro data, today finds some operating difficulties due to the privacy law. The privacy code is a really important and necessary law because it guarantees the Italian citizen’s rights, as already happens in other Countries of the world. However it does not seem appropriate to limit once more the possibilities of the data production of the national centres of research. That possibilities are already moreover compromised due to insufficient founds is a common problem becoming more and more frequent in the research field. It would be necessary, therefore, to include in the law the possibility to use telephonic lists to select samples useful for activities directly of interest and importance to the citizen, such as the collection of the data carried out on the basis of opinion polls by the centres of research of the Italian CNR and some universities.

  7. The Finite and Moving Order Multinomial Universal Portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

    2013-01-01

    An upper bound for the ratio of wealths of the best constant -rebalanced portfolio to that of the multinomial universal portfolio is derived. The finite- order multinomial universal portfolios can reduce the implementation time and computer-memory requirements for computation. The improved performance of the finite-order portfolios on some selected local stock-price data sets is observed.

  8. Optimal portfolio strategies under a shortfall constraint | Akume ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We impose dynamically, a shortfall constraint in terms of Tail Conditional Expectation on the portfolio selection problem in continuous time, in order to obtain optimal strategies. The nancial market is assumed to comprise n risky assets driven by geometric Brownian motion and one risk-free asset. The method of Lagrange ...

  9. Characterizing the combinatorial beam angle selection problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangert, Mark; Ziegenhein, Peter; Oelfke, Uwe

    2012-10-01

    The beam angle selection (BAS) problem in intensity-modulated radiation therapy is often interpreted as a combinatorial optimization problem, i.e. finding the best combination of η beams in a discrete set of candidate beams. It is well established that the combinatorial BAS problem may be solved efficiently with metaheuristics such as simulated annealing or genetic algorithms. However, the underlying parameters of the optimization process, such as the inclusion of non-coplanar candidate beams, the angular resolution in the space of candidate beams, and the number of evaluated beam ensembles as well as the relative performance of different metaheuristics have not yet been systematically investigated. We study these open questions in a meta-analysis of four strategies for combinatorial optimization in order to provide a reference for future research related to the BAS problem in intensity-modulated radiation therapy treatment planning. We introduce a high-performance inverse planning engine for BAS. It performs a full fluence optimization for ≈3600 treatment plans per hour while handling up to 50 GB of dose influence data (≈1400 candidate beams). For three head and neck patients, we compare the relative performance of a genetic, a cross-entropy, a simulated annealing and a naive iterative algorithm. The selection of ensembles with 5, 7, 9 and 11 beams considering either only coplanar or all feasible candidate beams is studied for an angular resolution of 5°, 10°, 15° and 20° in the space of candidate beams. The impact of different convergence criteria is investigated in comparison to a fixed termination after the evaluation of 10 000 beam ensembles. In total, our simulations comprise a full fluence optimization for about 3000 000 treatment plans. All four combinatorial BAS strategies yield significant improvements of the objective function value and of the corresponding dose distributions compared to standard beam configurations with equi

  10. Characterizing the combinatorial beam angle selection problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bangert, Mark; Ziegenhein, Peter; Oelfke, Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The beam angle selection (BAS) problem in intensity-modulated radiation therapy is often interpreted as a combinatorial optimization problem, i.e. finding the best combination of η beams in a discrete set of candidate beams. It is well established that the combinatorial BAS problem may be solved efficiently with metaheuristics such as simulated annealing or genetic algorithms. However, the underlying parameters of the optimization process, such as the inclusion of non-coplanar candidate beams, the angular resolution in the space of candidate beams, and the number of evaluated beam ensembles as well as the relative performance of different metaheuristics have not yet been systematically investigated. We study these open questions in a meta-analysis of four strategies for combinatorial optimization in order to provide a reference for future research related to the BAS problem in intensity-modulated radiation therapy treatment planning. We introduce a high-performance inverse planning engine for BAS. It performs a full fluence optimization for ≈3600 treatment plans per hour while handling up to 50 GB of dose influence data (≈1400 candidate beams). For three head and neck patients, we compare the relative performance of a genetic, a cross-entropy, a simulated annealing and a naive iterative algorithm. The selection of ensembles with 5, 7, 9 and 11 beams considering either only coplanar or all feasible candidate beams is studied for an angular resolution of 5°, 10°, 15° and 20° in the space of candidate beams. The impact of different convergence criteria is investigated in comparison to a fixed termination after the evaluation of 10 000 beam ensembles. In total, our simulations comprise a full fluence optimization for about 3000 000 treatment plans. All four combinatorial BAS strategies yield significant improvements of the objective function value and of the corresponding dose distributions compared to standard beam configurations with equi

  11. The Goodness of Covariance Selection Problem from AUC Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    Khajavi, Navid Tafaghodi; Kuh, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    We conduct a study of graphical models and discuss the quality of model selection approximation by formulating the problem as a detection problem and examining the area under the curve (AUC). We are specifically looking at the model selection problem for jointly Gaussian random vectors. For Gaussian random vectors, this problem simplifies to the covariance selection problem which is widely discussed in literature by Dempster [1]. In this paper, we give the definition for the correlation appro...

  12. The electricity portfolio simulation model (EPSim) technical description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drennen, Thomas E.; Klotz, Richard (Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY)

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy's (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.

  13. portfolio optimization based on nonparametric estimation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mahsa ghandehari

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the major issues investors are facing with in capital markets is decision making about select an appropriate stock exchange for investing and selecting an optimal portfolio. This process is done through the risk and expected return assessment. On the other hand in portfolio selection problem if the assets expected returns are normally distributed, variance and standard deviation are used as a risk measure. But, the expected returns on assets are not necessarily normal and sometimes have dramatic differences from normal distribution. This paper with the introduction of conditional value at risk ( CVaR, as a measure of risk in a nonparametric framework, for a given expected return, offers the optimal portfolio and this method is compared with the linear programming method. The data used in this study consists of monthly returns of 15 companies selected from the top 50 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the winter of 1392 which is considered from April of 1388 to June of 1393. The results of this study show the superiority of nonparametric method over the linear programming method and the nonparametric method is much faster than the linear programming method.

  14. A Numerical Study for Robust Active Portfolio Management with Worst-Case Downside Risk Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aifan Ling

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, active portfolio management problems are paid close attention by many researchers due to the explosion of fund industries. We consider a numerical study of a robust active portfolio selection model with downside risk and multiple weights constraints in this paper. We compare the numerical performance of solutions with the classical mean-variance tracking error model and the naive 1/N portfolio strategy by real market data from China market and other markets. We find from the numerical results that the tested active models are more attractive and robust than the compared models.

  15. The Experimental Study on.the Risk Convergence of the Entrusted Portfolios of NSSF

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QU Bao-zhong; PANG Qing

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes use of statistical tools of parameter correlation,multi-parameter regression,and does experimental analysis on issues of risk diversification of portfolios entrusted by National Social Security Fund (NSSF).The issues are industry related investment fieIds distribution,the trend of capitalization movement,and investment style factors in stock selection.The results show that there are risk problems with portfolios entrusted by NSSF,which include similar investment fields distribution trend,little difference among portfolios,and high risk preference degree.

  16. Portfolios with nonlinear constraints and spin glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gábor, Adrienn; Kondor, I.

    1999-12-01

    In a recent paper Galluccio, Bouchaud and Potters demonstrated that a certain portfolio problem with a nonlinear constraint maps exactly onto finding the ground states of a long-range spin glass, with the concomitant nonuniqueness and instability of the optimal portfolios. Here we put forward geometric arguments that lead to qualitatively similar conclusions, without recourse to the methods of spin glass theory, and give two more examples of portfolio problems with convex nonlinear constraints.

  17. Mean-Reverting Portfolio With Budget Constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ziping; Palomar, Daniel P.

    2018-05-01

    This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, taking into consideration the variance of the portfolio and an investment budget constraint. Then several specific problems are considered based on the general formulation, and efficient algorithms are proposed. Numerical results on both synthetic and market data show that our proposed mean-reverting portfolio design methods can generate consistent profits and outperform the traditional design methods and the benchmark methods in the literature.

  18. The Use of Academic Portfolio in the Learning and Assessment of Physics Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Kay Ling

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper is to examine the use of portfolios in the teaching and learning of physics at a Singapore private college. The paper starts with a short introduction of the types of students and the purpose of using academic portfolios in their learning and assessment. Some ideas of how portfolios can be used in the local context will also be discussed. It is necessary for teachers to know how to incorporate portfolio assessment in their daily lesson plans. At the same time, students who are studying physics at the college should also know how to use portfolios to their academic advantage. The paper also highlights three of the relevant work artifacts that can be included into the physics portfolios. The three work samples are concept-maps, internet research reports and newspaper articles reports. Concept-maps are useful tools to help students establish the connections between concepts. Internet research reports serve as important means for students to know more about how some scientific devices or technology use physics in the operations. Newspaper articles reports allow students to understand the real impact of physics on the lives of people. Subsequent sections of the paper discuss about the organizational flow of the portfolio, the timeline, the selection process, the portfolio checklist and assessment rubrics, the positive influences of using portfolios, the issues to consider and also the potential problems that physics teachers may face in implementing portfolios. These sections present the important framework which teachers can use as references for their portfolio initiatives in schools.

  19. Evaluation Problem versus Selection Problem in Organizational Structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.S. Ficco (Stefano); V.A. Karamychev (Vladimir)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe consider a hierarchical organization with two fully rational agents. The goal of the organization is that of selecting the best alternative out of several available, and agents are heterogenous in the accuracy with which they screen the alternatives. We show that, if internal

  20. Supplier selection problem: A fuzzy multicriteria approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    simultaneously: maximising the total value of purchases, minimising ... Keywords: Supplier selection, multi-criteria decision-making, fuzzy logic, satisfaction ... includes both qualitative and quantitative factors, and it is necessary to make a.

  1. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  2. On the Teaching of Portfolio Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederman, Daniel K.

    1992-01-01

    Demonstrates how a simple portfolio problem expressed explicitly as an expected utility maximization problem can be used to instruct students in portfolio theory. Discusses risk aversion, decision making under uncertainty, and the limitations of the traditional mean variance approach. Suggests students may develop a greater appreciation of general…

  3. Planar dynamical systems selected classical problems

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Yirong; Huang, Wentao

    2014-01-01

    This book presents in an elementary way the recent significant developments in the qualitative theory of planar dynamical systems. The subjects are covered as follows: the studies of center and isochronous center problems, multiple Hopf bifurcations and local and global bifurcations of the equivariant planar vector fields which concern with Hilbert's 16th problem. This book is intended for graduate students, post-doctors and researchers in the area of theories and applications of dynamical systems. For all engineers who are interested the theory of dynamical systems, it is also a reasona

  4. Innovative Approach for IBS Vendor Selection Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Mohd Faizal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain management in Industrialised Building System (IBS construction management has significantly determined the successful of company and project performance. Due to the wide variety of criteria and vendor available, the vendor selection process for a specific project needs is becoming more difficult. The need of decision aid for vendor selection in other areas is widely discussed in previous research. However, study on vendor selection for IBS project is largely neglected. Decision Support System (DSS is proposed for this purpose. Yet, most of the DSS models are impractical since they are complicated and difficult for a layman such as project managers to use. Research indicates that the rapid development of ICT has highly potential towards simple and effective DSS. Thus, this paper highlights the importance and research approach for vendor selection in IBS project management. The study is based on Design Science Research Methodology with combination of case studies. It is anticipates that this study will yield an effective value-for-money decision making platform to manage vendor selection process.

  5. Portfolio optimization retail investor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. А. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article notes that the task of the investor's risk management is to, on the one hand, as much as possible to strive to achieve the criterion of risk level, and on the other hand, in any case not exceed it. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of the optimal ratio of "risk-income" becomes now of particular relevance. This article discusses the different distribution areas of the private investor in order to obtain the maximum profit. The analysis showed us the overall economic and political system of the country, as well as the legislative provision of guarantees to the investor. To obtain sufficient income and reduce losses it is important to maintain the optimum value found between the amount of the investor's risk and capital transactions. Model of optimal placement of funds led to the conclusion about inexpediency strong increase in the diversification of the investment portfolio (more than 10 different types of assets in the portfolio, since it increases the complexity of its practical form, while the portfolio characteristics are improved significantly. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The analysis shows that there is no single best asset portfolio. It is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. Possible combination of the "riskincome" will depend on the objective function. Most diversified and bringing the best return per unit of risk, is a portfolio that contains the most risky assets.

  6. Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.

  7. Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Mrinal K.; Goswami, Anindya; Kumar, Suresh K.

    2009-01-01

    We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem

  8. Portfolios of quantum algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, S M; Hogg, T; Huberman, B A

    2001-12-17

    Quantum computation holds promise for the solution of many intractable problems. However, since many quantum algorithms are stochastic in nature they can find the solution of hard problems only probabilistically. Thus the efficiency of the algorithms has to be characterized by both the expected time to completion and the associated variance. In order to minimize both the running time and its uncertainty, we show that portfolios of quantum algorithms analogous to those of finance can outperform single algorithms when applied to the NP-complete problems such as 3-satisfiability.

  9. Polyhedral combinatorics of the cardinality constrained quadratic knapsack problem and the quadratic selective travelling salesman problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mak, Vicky; Thomadsen, Tommy

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers the cardinality constrained quadratic knapsack problem (QKP) and the quadratic selective travelling salesman problem (QSTSP). The QKP is a generalization of the knapsack problem and the QSTSP is a generalization of the travelling salesman problem. Thus, both problems are NP...

  10. Problems of Technical Electrodynamics (Selected Articles),

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-04-11

    copy available. ii DC 83143001 PAGE 1 PROBLEMS OF TECHNICAL ELECTRODYNAMICS. DOC - 83143001 PAGE 2 In the collector /collection are connected the...composite/ compound reliable in mechanical sense forgings of rotors with a weight of 250 t and it is more and rotor binding bands. These K forgings must be...go - calculated coefficient, which considers the character of temperature field. With a linear change in temperature .=1, with parabolic =3

  11. Essays on Rational Portfolio Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Simon Ellersgaard

    market prices, we findonly a very modest improvement in portfolio wealth over the corresponding strategy whichonly trades in bonds and stocks. Optimal Hedge Tracking Portfolios in a Limit Order Book. In this paper we developa control theoretic solution to the manner in which a portfolio manager optimally...... shouldtrack a targeted D, given that he wishes to hedge a short position in European call optionsthe underlying of which is traded in a limit order book. Specifically, we are interested in theinterplay between posting limit and market orders respectively: when should the portfoliomanager do what (and at what......’s theory of optimal portfolio selection for wealth maximisingagents. In this paper we present a systematic analysis of the optimal asset allocation in aderivative-free market for the Heston model, the 3/2 model, and a Fong Vasicek type model.Under the assumption that the market price of risk...

  12. Selected problems in experimental intermediate energy physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayes, B.W.; Hungerford, E.V.; Pinsky, L.S.

    1990-09-01

    The objectives of this research program are to: investigate forefront problems in experimental intermediate energy physics; educate students in this field of research; and, develop the instrumentation necessary to undertake this experimental program. Generally, the research is designed to search for physical processes which cannot be explained by conventional models of elementary interactions. This includes the use of nuclear targets where the nucleus provides a many body environment of strongly perturbation of a known interaction by this environment. Unfortunately, such effects may be masked by the complexity of the many body problem and may be difficult to observe. Therefore, experiments must be carefully chosen and analyzed for deviations from the more conventional models. There were three major thrusts of the program; strange particle physics, where a strange quark is embedded in the nuclear medium; muon electro-weak decay, which involves a search for a violation of the standard model of the electro-weak interaction; and measurement of the spin dependent structure function of the neutron

  13. Selected Problems in Nonlinear Dynamics and Sociophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westley, Alexandra Renee

    This Ph.D. dissertation focuses on a collection of problems on the dynamical behavior of nonlinear many-body systems, drawn from two substantially different areas. First, the dynamical behavior seen in strongly nonlinear lattices such as in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou (FPUT) system (part I) and second, time evolution behavior of interacting living objects which can be broadly considered as sociophysics systems (part II). The studies on FPUT-like systems will comprise of five chapters, dedicated to the properties of solitary and anti-solitary waves in the system, how localized nonlinear excitations decay and spread throughout these lattices, how two colliding solitary waves can precipitate highly localized and stable excitations, a possible alternative way to view these localized excitations through Duffing oscillators, and finally an exploration of parametric resonance in an FPUT-like lattice. Part II consists of two problems in the context of sociophysics. I use molecular dynamics inspired simulations to study the size and the stability of social groups of chimpanzees (such as those seen in central Africa) and compare the results with existing observations on the stability of chimpanzee societies. Secondly, I use an agent-based model to simulate land battles between an intelligent army and an insurgency when both have access to equally powerful weaponry. The study considers genetic algorithm based adaptive strategies to infer the strategies needed for the intelligent army to win the battles.

  14. Goldbach’s problem selected topics

    CERN Document Server

    Rassias, Michael Th

    2017-01-01

    Important results surrounding the proof of Goldbach's ternary conjecture are presented in this book. Beginning with an historical perspective along with an overview of essential lemmas and theorems, this monograph moves on to a detailed proof of Vinogradov's theorem. The principles of the Hardy-Littlewood circle method are outlined and applied to Goldbach's ternary conjecture. New results due to H. Maier and the author on Vinogradov's theorem are proved under the assumption of the Riemann hypothesis. The final chapter discusses an approach to Goldbach's conjecture through theorems by L. G. Schnirelmann. This book concludes with an Appendix featuring a sketch of H. Helfgott's proof of Goldbach's ternary conjecture. The Appendix also presents some biographical remarks of mathematicians whose research has played a seminal role on the Goldbach ternary problem. The author's step-by-step approach makes this book accessible to those that have mastered classical number theory and fundamental notions of mathematical a...

  15. The stock selection problem: Is the stock selection approach more important than the optimization method? Evidence from the Danish stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Grobys, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Passive investment strategies basically aim to replicate an underlying benchmark. Thereby, the management usually selects a subset of stocks being employed in the optimization procedure. Apart from the optimization procedure, the stock selection approach determines the stock portfolios' out-of-sample performance. The empirical study here takes into account the Danish stock market from 2000-2010 and gives evidence that stock portfolios including small companies' stocks being estimated via coin...

  16. The Problem of Shot Selection in Basketball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Brian

    2012-01-01

    In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this article, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. Within this model I derive an answer to the question “how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?” and I show that this lower cutoff for shot quality depends crucially on the number of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires), with larger demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. The theoretical prediction for the optimal shooting rate is compared to data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The comparison highlights some limitations of the theoretical model, while also suggesting that NBA teams may be overly reluctant to shoot the ball early in the shot clock. PMID:22295109

  17. The problem of shot selection in basketball.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Skinner

    Full Text Available In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this article, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. Within this model I derive an answer to the question "how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?" and I show that this lower cutoff for shot quality f depends crucially on the number n of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires, with larger n demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function f(n is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. The theoretical prediction for the optimal shooting rate is compared to data from the National Basketball Association (NBA. The comparison highlights some limitations of the theoretical model, while also suggesting that NBA teams may be overly reluctant to shoot the ball early in the shot clock.

  18. The problem of shot selection in basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Brian

    2012-01-01

    In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this article, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. Within this model I derive an answer to the question "how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?" and I show that this lower cutoff for shot quality f depends crucially on the number n of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires), with larger n demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function f(n) is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. The theoretical prediction for the optimal shooting rate is compared to data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The comparison highlights some limitations of the theoretical model, while also suggesting that NBA teams may be overly reluctant to shoot the ball early in the shot clock.

  19. Different Variants of Fundamental Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarczyński Waldemar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes the fundamental portfolio of securities. This portfolio is an alternative for the classic Markowitz model, which combines fundamental analysis with portfolio analysis. The method’s main idea is based on the use of the TMAI1 synthetic measure and, in limiting conditions, the use of risk and the portfolio’s rate of return in the objective function. Different variants of fundamental portfolio have been considered under an empirical study. The effectiveness of the proposed solutions has been related to the classic portfolio constructed with the help of the Markowitz model and the WIG20 market index’s rate of return. All portfolios were constructed with data on rates of return for 2005. Their effectiveness in 2006- 2013 was then evaluated. The studied period comprises the end of the bull market, the 2007-2009 crisis, the 2010 bull market and the 2011 crisis. This allows for the evaluation of the solutions’ flexibility in various extreme situations. For the construction of the fundamental portfolio’s objective function and the TMAI, the study made use of financial and economic data on selected indicators retrieved from Notoria Serwis for 2005.

  20. Universal portfolios in stochastic portfolio theory

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Ting-Kam Leonard

    2015-01-01

    Consider a family of portfolio strategies with the aim of achieving the asymptotic growth rate of the best one. The idea behind Cover's universal portfolio is to build a wealth-weighted average which can be viewed as a buy-and-hold portfolio of portfolios. When an optimal portfolio exists, the wealth-weighted average converges to it by concentration of wealth. Working under a discrete time and pathwise setup, we show under suitable conditions that the distribution of wealth in the family sati...

  1. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...

  2. Portfolio evaluation of health programs: a reply to Sendi et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, John F P; Terris, Darcey D

    2004-05-01

    Sendi et al. (Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207) extend previous research on cost-effectiveness analysis to the evaluation of a portfolio of interventions with risky outcomes using a "second best" approach that can identify improvements in efficiency in the allocation of resources. This method, however, cannot be used to directly identify the optimal solution to the resource allocation problem. Theoretically, a stricter adherence to the foundations of portfolio theory would permit direct optimization in portfolio selection, however, when we include uncertainty in our analysis in addition to the traditional concept of risk (which is often mislabelled uncertainty) complexities are introduced that create significant hurdles in the development of practical applications of portfolio theory for health care policy decision making.

  3. Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javed Bin Kamal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

  4. The Use of Academic Portfolio in the Learning and Assessment of Physics Students from a Singapore Private College

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Kay Ling

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper is to examine the use of portfolios in the teaching and learning of physics at a Singapore private college. The paper starts with a short introduction of the types of students and the purpose of using academic portfolios in their learning and assessment. Some ideas of how portfolios can be used in the local context will also be discussed. It is necessary for teachers to know how to incorporate portfolio assessment in their daily lesson plans. At the same time, students who are studying physics at the college should also know how to use portfolios to their academic advantage. The paper also highlights three of the relevant work artifacts that can be included into the physics portfolios. The three work samples are concept-maps, internet research reports and newspaper articles reports. Concept-maps are useful tools to help students establish the connections between concepts. Internet research reports serve as important means for students to know more about how some scientific devices or technology use physics in the operations. Newspaper articles reports allow students to understand the real impact of physics on the lives of people. Subsequent sections of the paper discuss about the organizational flow of the portfolio, the timeline, the selection process, the portfolio checklist and assessment rubrics, the positive influences of using portfolios, the issues to consider and also the potential problems that physics teachers may face in implementing portfolios. These sections present the important framework which teachers can use as references for their portfolio initiatives in schools.

  5. Reflection during Portfolio-Based Conversations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterbaan, Anne E.; van der Schaaf, Marieke F.; Baartman, Liesbeth K. J.; Stokking, Karel M.

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to explore the relationship between the occurrence of reflection (and non-reflection) and thinking activities (e.g., orientating, selecting, analysing) during portfolio-based conversations. Analysis of 21 transcripts of portfolio-based conversations revealed that 20% of the segments were made up of reflection (content reflection…

  6. Portfolio theory in the selection of oil investment projects Teoria de carteiras na seleção de projetos de investimento em petróleo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalimar Guimarães Simplício

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to compare investment project selection using the efficient frontier in the mean-variance space based on optimization models introduced by Markowitz (1952 with the project ranking method according to the profitability index (PI. The selection of real assets by companies did not incorporate the mean-variance optimization procedure in the same way the selection of financial assets in investment portfolios did. The process of selection and formation of portfolios of investment projects for the oil area of a company in the energy industry was analyzed. Project portfolios formed according to the usual company practice of ranking by their PI were compared with those that result from applying mean-variance optimization through Monte Carlo simulation, which allows the computation of mean returns, variances, and covariances for the set of projects considered. The inefficiency of project portfolios obtained by ranking according to the PI compared to those obtained by the method of Markowitz suggests that there are opportunities to improve the process of selecting the set of projects to be implemented by companies.O objetivo deste artigo é comparar a seleção de projetos de investimento segundo a fronteira eficiente no espaço média-variância com base em modelos de otimização introduzidos por Markowitz (1952 com o método do ordenamento de projetos segundo o índice de lucratividade (IL. A seleção de ativos reais pelas empresas não incorporou o procedimento de otimização de média-variância da mesma forma que na seleção de ativos financeiros para carteiras de investimento. O processo de seleção e formação de carteiras de projetos de investimento pela área de petróleo de uma empresa do setor de energia foi analisado. Carteiras de projetos constituídas de acordo com a prática usual da empresa de ordenamento pelo IL foram comparadas com as que resultariam da aplicação da otimização de m

  7. Accounting outsourcing and some problems of selected software for accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Turková, Lenka

    2009-01-01

    Diploma thesis on Accounting outsourcing and key problems of selected software for accounting deals with the accounting outsourcing. Work focuses here on the question of the proper selection of an accounting firm and on the conditions of cooperation with it. In this work the reader is also acquainted with some software for accounting and with their advantages and disadvantages.

  8. Mean-Variance portfolio optimization when each asset has individual uncertain exit-time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Keykhaei

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The standard Markowitz Mean-Variance optimization model is a single-period portfolio selection approach where the exit-time (or the time-horizon is deterministic. ‎In this paper we study the Mean-Variance portfolio selection problem ‎with ‎uncertain ‎exit-time ‎when ‎each ‎has ‎individual uncertain ‎xit-time‎, ‎which generalizes the Markowitz's model‎. ‎‎‎‎‎‎We provide some conditions under which the optimal portfolio of the generalized problem is independent of the exit-times distributions. Also, ‎‎it is shown that under some general circumstances, the sets of optimal portfolios‎ ‎in the generalized model and the standard model are the same‎.

  9. Regularizing portfolio optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre

    2010-01-01

    The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.

  10. Regularizing portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre

    2010-07-01

    The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.

  11. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koijen, R.S.J.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    We study the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem over an individual's life-cycle taking into account annuity risk at retirement. Optimally, the investor allocates wealth at retirement to nominal, inflation-linked, and variable annuities and conditions this choice on the state of the

  12. Convergence of a Scholtes-type regularization method for cardinality-constrained optimization problems with an application in sparse robust portfolio optimization

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Branda, Martin; Bucher, M.; Červinka, Michal; Schwartz, A.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 70, č. 2 (2018), s. 503-530 ISSN 0926-6003 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-00735S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Cardinality constraints * Regularization method * Scholtes regularization * Strong stationarity * Sparse portfolio optimization * Robust portfolio optimization Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.520, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/MTR/branda-0489264.pdf

  13. Modeling a Dynamic Portfolio for Pension Plans in Emerging Markets With Myopic and Nonmyopic Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pimentel, Livia F.; Santiago, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a dynamic formulation for the problem of portfolio selection of pension funds in the absence of a risk-free asset. In emerging markets, a risk-free asset might be unavailable, and the approaches commonly used may no longer be suitable. We use a parametric approach to combine dynamic...

  14. Electromagnetic waves in complex systems selected theoretical and applied problems

    CERN Document Server

    Velychko, Lyudmyla

    2016-01-01

    This book gives guidance to solve problems in electromagnetics, providing both examples of solving serious research problems as well as the original results to encourage further investigations. The book contains seven chapters on various aspects of resonant wave scattering, each solving one original problem. All of them are unified by the authors’ desire to show advantages of rigorous approaches at all stages, from the formulation of a problem and the selection of a method to the interpretation of results. The book reveals a range of problems associated with wave propagation and scattering in natural and artificial environments or with the design of antennas elements. The authors invoke both theoretical (analytical and numerical) and experimental techniques for handling the problems. Attention is given to mathematical simulations, computational efficiency, and physical interpretation of the experimental results. The book is written for students, graduate students and young researchers. .

  15. An intutionistic fuzzy optimization approach to vendor selection problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabjot Kaur

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Selecting the right vendor is an important business decision made by any organization. The decision involves multiple criteria and if the objectives vary in preference and scope, then nature of decision becomes multiobjective. In this paper, a vendor selection problem has been formulated as an intutionistic fuzzy multiobjective optimization where appropriate number of vendors is to be selected and order allocated to them. The multiobjective problem includes three objectives: minimizing the net price, maximizing the quality, and maximizing the on time deliveries subject to supplier's constraints. The objection function and the demand are treated as intutionistic fuzzy sets. An intutionistic fuzzy set has its ability to handle uncertainty with additional degrees of freedom. The Intutionistic fuzzy optimization (IFO problem is converted into a crisp linear form and solved using optimization software Tora. The advantage of IFO is that they give better results than fuzzy/crisp optimization. The proposed approach is explained by a numerical example.

  16. Validity of the Learning Portfolio: Analysis of a Portfolio Proposal for the University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregori-Giralt, Eva; Menéndez-Varela, José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Validity is a central issue in portfolio-based assessment. This empirical study used a quantitative approach to analyse the validity of the inferences drawn from a disciplinary course work portfolio assessment comprising profession-specific and learning competencies. The study also examined the problems involved in the development of the…

  17. Modeling and Solving the Liner Shipping Service Selection Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karsten, Christian Vad; Balakrishnan, Anant

    We address a tactical planning problem, the Liner Shipping Service Selection Problem (LSSSP), facing container shipping companies. Given estimated demand between various ports, the LSSSP entails selecting the best subset of non-simple cyclic sailing routes from a given pool of candidate routes...... to accurately model transshipment costs and incorporate routing policies such as maximum transit time, maritime cabotage rules, and operational alliances. Our hop-indexed arc flow model is smaller and easier to solve than path flow models. We outline a preprocessing procedure that exploits both the routing...... requirements and the hop limits to reduce problem size, and describe techniques to accelerate the solution procedure. We present computational results for realistic problem instances from the benchmark suite LINER-LIB....

  18. Facets for the Cardinality Constrained Quadratic Knapsack Problem and the Quadratic Selective Travelling Salesman Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mak, Vicky; Thomadsen, Tommy

    2004-01-01

    A well-known extension of the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) is the Selective (or Prize-collecting) TSP: In addition to the edge-costs, each node has an associated reward (denoted the node-reward) and instead of visiting all nodes, only profitable nodes are visited. The Quadratic Selective TSP...

  19. Online Learning of Commission Avoidant Portfolio Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Uziel, Guy; El-Yaniv, Ran

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel online ensemble learning strategy for portfolio selection. The new strategy controls and exploits any set of commission-oblivious portfolio selection algorithms. The strategy handles transaction costs using a novel commission avoidance mechanism. We prove a logarithmic regret bound for our strategy with respect to optimal mixtures of the base algorithms. Numerical examples validate the viability of our method and show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art.

  20. Teachers' selection and enactment of mathematical problems from textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Won; Kim, Ok-Kyeong

    2015-12-01

    In order to investigate how teachers' use of textbooks creates different kinds of opportunities for student learning, this study focused on teachers' selection and enactment of problems and tasks from the textbooks and their influence on the cognitive demand placed on students. By drawing on data from three elementary teachers in the USA, two of which used a reform-oriented textbook— Math Trailblazers and one a commercially developed textbook—this study examined kinds of problems the teachers chose and ways in which they enacted those problems in relation to the cognitive demand of the problems. In particular, we attended to the kinds of questions the teachers asked in enacting the problems and ways in which those questions influenced the cognitive demand of the textbook problems. This study also identified critical issues involved in teacher decision-making on task selection and enactment, such as the match between teachers' goals and those of the textbooks, and teachers' perception of textbook problems. Based on the results of the study, we discuss implications for teacher education and professional development.

  1. Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

  2. Performance of finite order distribution-generated universal portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Sook Theng; Liew, How Hui; Chang, Yun Fah

    2017-04-01

    A Constant Rebalanced Portfolio (CRP) is an investment strategy which reinvests by redistributing wealth equally among a set of stocks. The empirical performance of the distribution-generated universal portfolio strategies are analysed experimentally concerning 10 higher volume stocks from different categories in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The time interval of study is from January 2000 to December 2015, which includes the credit crisis from September 2008 to March 2009. The performance of the finite-order universal portfolio strategies has been shown to be better than Constant Rebalanced Portfolio with some selected parameters of proposed universal portfolios.

  3. A survey of drug abuse problems among students of selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study was to survey drug abuse problems among students of selected secondary schools in Ile-Ife in Osun State. Specifically, the study was to find out the reasons for drug abuse among students. The major instrument used to collect needed information was the questionnaire which was distributed to ...

  4. Supplier selection problem: A fuzzy multicriteria approach | Allouche ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this paper is to suggest a fuzzy multi-criteria approach to solve the supplier selection problem, an approach based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and imprecise goal programming. To deal with decision-maker (DM) preferences, the concept of satisfaction function is introduced. The proposed ...

  5. Competing land use in the reserve site selection problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langevelde, van F.; Schotman, A.; Claassen, G.D.H.; Sparenburg, G.A.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an approach that addresses competing land uses in the reserve site selection problem. This approach is implemented in a spatial optimization model for conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes: MENTOR. This model allocates new sites as stepping

  6. Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization Using Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms and Preselection Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Y. Qu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization problems involve selection of different assets to invest in order to maximize the overall return and minimize the overall risk simultaneously. The complexity of the optimal asset allocation problem increases with an increase in the number of assets available to select from for investing. The optimization problem becomes computationally challenging when there are more than a few hundreds of assets to select from. To reduce the complexity of large-scale portfolio optimization, two asset preselection procedures that consider return and risk of individual asset and pairwise correlation to remove assets that may not potentially be selected into any portfolio are proposed in this paper. With these asset preselection methods, the number of assets considered to be included in a portfolio can be increased to thousands. To test the effectiveness of the proposed methods, a Normalized Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Decomposition (NMOEA/D algorithm and several other commonly used multiobjective evolutionary algorithms are applied and compared. Six experiments with different settings are carried out. The experimental results show that with the proposed methods the simulation time is reduced while return-risk trade-off performances are significantly improved. Meanwhile, the NMOEA/D is able to outperform other compared algorithms on all experiments according to the comparative analysis.

  7. Comprehensive Education Portfolio with a Career Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Evonne J.; Holtzman, Diane M.; Dagavarian, Debra A.

    2013-01-01

    There are many types of student portfolios used within academia: the prior learning portfolio, credentialing portfolio, developmental portfolio, capstone portfolio, individual course portfolio, and the comprehensive education portfolio. The comprehensive education portfolio (CEP), as used by the authors, is a student portfolio, developed over…

  8. Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryd, Lukas

    2017-07-01

    The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.

  9. Technology Audit: Assessment of Innovative Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurushina Viktoria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the features of the technological audit performing in the companies of oil and gas sector of Russian economy. To measure the innovations quality level the scale was developed based on the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and the theory of technological structures. Figures of the innovations quantity by levels, volume and quality of the innovative portfolio are offered for assessment the innovative portfolio quality. The method was tested on an example of oil and gas transporting enterprises. The results of the comparative analysis of innovative portfolio are shown.

  10. Portfolio optimization using fuzzy linear programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Purnima K.

    2013-09-01

    Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a problem in Finance, in which investor tries to maximize return and minimize risk by carefully choosing different assets. Expected return and risk are the most important parameters with regard to optimal portfolios. In the simple form PO can be modeled as quadratic programming problem which can be put into equivalent linear form. PO problems with the fuzzy parameters can be solved as multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem. In this paper we give the solution to such problems with an illustrative example.

  11. Proposal for Land Consolidation Project Solutions for Selected Problem Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojcik-Len, Justyna; Strek, Zanna

    2017-12-01

    One of the economic tools for supporting agricultural policy are the activities implemented under the Rural Development Program (RDP). By encouraging agricultural activities and creating equal opportunities for development of farms, among others in areas with unfavourable environmental conditions characterized by low productivity of soils exposed to degradation, decision makers can contribute to improving the spatial structure of rural areas. In Poland, one of the major concerns are agricultural problem areas (regions). In view of this situation, the aim of this article was to characterize the problem areas in question and propose land consolidation project solutions for selected fragments of those areas. This paper presents the results of a review of literature and an analysis of geodetic and cartographic data regarding the problem areas. The process of land consolidation, which is one of the technical and legal instruments supporting the development of rural areas, was characterized. The study allowed the present authors to establish criteria for selecting agricultural problem areas for land consolidation. To develop a proposal for rational management of the problem areas, key general criteria (location, topography, soil quality and usefulness) and specific criteria were defined and assigned weights. A conception of alternative development of the agricultural problem areas was created as part of a land consolidation project. The results were used to create a methodology for the development of agricultural problem areas to be employed during land consolidation in rural areas. Every agricultural space includes areas with unfavourable environmental and soil conditions determined by natural or anthropogenic factors. Development of agricultural problem areas through land consolidation should take into account the specific functions assigned to these areas in land use plans, as well as to comply with legal regulations.

  12. A fuzzy logic based PROMETHEE method for material selection problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammet Gul

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Material selection is a complex problem in the design and development of products for diverse engineering applications. This paper presents a fuzzy PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation method based on trapezoidal fuzzy interval numbers that can be applied to the selection of materials for an automotive instrument panel. Also, it presents uniqueness in making a significant contribution to the literature in terms of the application of fuzzy decision-making approach to material selection problems. The method is illustrated, validated, and compared against three different fuzzy MCDM methods (fuzzy VIKOR, fuzzy TOPSIS, and fuzzy ELECTRE in terms of its ranking performance. Also, the relationships between the compared methods and the proposed scenarios for fuzzy PROMETHEE are evaluated via the Spearman’s correlation coefficient. Styrene Maleic Anhydride and Polypropylene are determined optionally as suitable materials for the automotive instrument panel case. We propose a generic fuzzy MCDM methodology that can be practically implemented to material selection problem. The main advantages of the methodology are consideration of the vagueness, uncertainty, and fuzziness to decision making environment.

  13. Optimal diversification of the securities portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валентина Михайловна Андриенко

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in B/S-market modelThe article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in -market model

  14. Solving the Selective Multi-Category Parallel-Servicing Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Range, Troels Martin; Lusby, Richard Martin; Larsen, Jesper

    In this paper we present a new scheduling problem and describe a shortest path based heuristic as well as a dynamic programming based exact optimization algorithm to solve it. The Selective Multi-Category Parallel-Servicing Problem (SMCPSP) arises when a set of jobs has to be scheduled on a server...... (machine) with limited capacity. Each job requests service in a prespecified time window and belongs to a certain category. Jobs may be serviced partially, incurring a penalty; however, only jobs of the same category can be processed simultaneously. One must identify the best subset of jobs to process...

  15. Solving the selective multi-category parallel-servicing problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Range, Troels Martin; Lusby, Richard Martin; Larsen, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new scheduling problem and describe a shortest path-based heuristic as well as a dynamic programming-based exact optimization algorithm to solve it. The selective multi-category parallel-servicing problem arises when a set of jobs has to be scheduled on a server (machine......) with limited capacity. Each job requests service in a prespecified time window and belongs to a certain category. Jobs may be serviced partially, incurring a penalty; however, only jobs of the same category can be processed simultaneously. One must identify the best subset of jobs to process in each time...

  16. Psychological perspectives on gifted education – selected problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sękowski Andrzej

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present article reviews the psychological literature on selected problems of gifted education. It discusses issues which are particularly important from the point of view of the skills and tools used by psychologists, educational specialists, teachers and tutors in their daily work with gifted children and adolescents. The problems described include diagnosis of giftedness in education, types of educational support provided to the gifted, and the requirements placed on teachers of gifted students. A particular emphasis is put on the contemporary research-related and practical challenges faced by gifted support specialists in schools.

  17. Robust Portfolio Optimization using CAPM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mohsen gharakhani

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new robust model of multi-period portfolio problem has been developed. One of the key concerns in any asset allocation problem is how to cope with uncertainty about future returns. There are some approaches in the literature for this purpose including stochastic programming and robust optimization. Applying these techniques to multi-period portfolio problem may increase the problem size in a way that the resulting model is intractable. In this paper, a novel approach has been proposed to formulate multi-period portfolio problem as an uncertain linear program assuming that asset return follows the single-index factor model. Robust optimization technique has been also used to solve the problem. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, a numerical example has been applied using simulated data.

  18. Application of a general risk management model to portfolio optimization problems with elliptical distributed returns for risk neutral and risk averse decision makers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe discuss a class of risk measures for portfolio optimization with linear loss functions, where the random returns of financial instruments have a multivariate elliptical distribution. Under this setting we pay special attention to two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and

  19. Testing for structural changes in large portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Posch, Peter N.; Ullmann, Daniel; Wied, Dominik

    2015-01-01

    Model free tests for constant parameters often fail to detect structural changes in high dimensions. In practice, this corresponds to a portfolio with many assets and a reasonable long time series. We reduce the dimensionality of the problem by looking a compressed panel of time series obtained by cluster analysis and the principal components of the data. Using our methodology we are able to extend a test for a constant correlation matrix from a sub portfolio to whole indices a...

  20. IT Portfolio Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

    2012-01-01

    information about internal recourses, (4) Lack of operational goals to hold IT projects accountable, (5) No account of actual IT project costs. These results may be used to inform further research into IT PPM and to help managers improve IT PPM practices in public organizations in their effort of increase......As public organizations increasingly rely on IT-enabled development to provide faster cycle times and better services, IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. This research adopts engaged scholarship to investigate IT PPM practices within a large local government...... on the theory’s distinction between different modes of control five problems in control is identified: (1) weak accountability processes between the political and the administrative level, (2) weak accountability processes between director level and the IT executives, (3) IT projects established on incomplete...

  1. Public Project Portfolio Optimization under a Participatory Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Fernandez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A new democracy paradigm is emerging through participatory budgeting exercises, which can be defined as a public space in which the government and the society agree on how to adapt the priorities of the citizenship to the public policy agenda. Although these priorities have been identified and they are likely to be reflected in a ranking of public policy actions, there is still a challenge of solving a portfolio problem of public projects that should implement the agreed agenda. This work proposes two procedures for optimizing the portfolio of public actions with the information stemming from the citizen participatory exercise. The selection of the method depends on the information about preferences collected from the participatory group. When the information is sufficient, the method behaves as an instrument of legitimate democracy. The proposal performs very well in solving two real-size examples.

  2. Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen

    2016-12-01

    Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.

  3. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  4. Darwinian algorithms and the Wason selection task: a factorial analysis of social contract selection task problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, R D; Griggs, R A

    1993-08-01

    In four experiments with 760 subjects, the present study examined Cosmides' Darwinian algorithm theory of reasoning: specifically, its explanation of facilitation on the Wason selection task. The first experiment replicated Cosmides' finding of facilitation for social contract versions of the selection task, using both her multiple-problem format and a single-problem format. Experiment 2 examined performance on Cosmides' three main social contract problems while manipulating the perspective of the subject and the presence and absence of cost-benefit information. The presence of cost-benefit information improved performance in two of the three problems while the perspective manipulation had no effect. In Experiment 3, the cost-benefit effect was replicated; and performance on one of the three problems was enhanced by the presence of explicit negatives on the NOT-P and NOT-Q cards. Experiment 4 examined the role of the deontic term "must" in the facilitation observed for two of the social contract problems. The presence of "must" led to a significant improvement in performance. The results of these experiments are strongly supportive of social contract theory in that cost-benefit information is necessary for substantial facilitation to be observed in Cosmides' problems. These findings also suggest the presence of other cues that can help guide subjects to a deontic social contract interpretation when the social contract nature of the problem is not clear.

  5. Supplier selection problem: A state-of-the-art review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilesh R. Ware

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In the global competitiveness and growing market environment, “Actual competition is not between firms against firm, than supplier against supplier”. Globally in the fastest market development world gets closer and closer. Consumers prefer fast delivery, economical product, excellent service and high quality product with desired service level. For successful management of this supply chain, supplier considered as the base source for all processes. Therefore, an efficient supplier selection and evaluation process needs to be incorporate. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive state-of-the-art literature review and critique of the studies related to various aspects of supplier selection problem over the past two decades. Research papers appearing in the reputed and leading international journals from 1991 to 2011 are gathered and analyzed. Primary focus is given on more than 200 published and unpublished works. It has been referred extensively to carry out state-of-the-art review for supplier selection problem. Finally, paper provides future perspective based on current research trends available in the published literature.

  6. Comparing Variance/Covariance and Historical Simulation in the Context of the Financial Crisis – Do Extreme Movements Have an Influence onto Portfolio Selection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svend Reuse

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio theory and the basic ideas of Markowitz have been extended in the recent past by alternative risk models as historical simulation or even copula functions. The central question of this paper is if these approaches lead to different results compared to the classical variance/covariance approach. Therefore, empirical data of the last 10 years is analysed. Both approaches are compared in the special context of the financial crisis. The worst case optimization and the Value at Risk (VaR are defined in order to define the minimum risk portfolio before and after the financial crisis. The result is that the financial crisis has nearly no impact onto the portfolio, but the two approaches lead to different results.

  7. A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.

  8. Program and Portfolio Tradeoffs Under Uncertainty Using Epoch-Era Analysis: A Case Application to Carrier Strike Group Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) • Joint EEA and MPT Method... Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) for Engineering Portfolios Consistencies • Value elicitation from stakeholders • Modeling of asset value • Founded...correlation • Asset availability is dynamic • Costs may accompany diversification Select elements of Modern Portfolio Theory can improve the design

  9. AREVA's nuclear reactors portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marincic, A.

    2009-01-01

    A reasonable assumption for the estimated new build market for the next 25 years is over 340 GWe net. The number of prospect countries is growing almost each day. To address this new build market, AREVA is developing a comprehensive portfolio of reactors intended to meet a wide range of power requirements and of technology choices. The EPR reactor is the flagship of the fleet. Intended for large power requirements, the four first EPRs are being built in Finland, France and China. Other countries and customers are in view, citing just two examples: the Usa where the U.S. EPR has been selected as the technology of choice by several U.S utilities; and the United Kingdom where the Generic Design Acceptance process of the EPR design submitted by AREVA and EDF is well under way, and where there is a strong will to have a plant on line in 2017. For medium power ranges, the AREVA portfolio includes a boiling water reactor and a pressurized water reactor which both offer all of the advantages of an advanced plant design, with excellent safety performance and competitive power generation cost: -) KERENA (1250+ MWe), developed in collaboration with several European utilities, and in particular with Eon; -) ATMEA 1 (1100+ MWe), a 3-loop evolutionary PWR which is being developed by AREVA and Mitsubishi. AREVA is also preparing the future and is deeply involved into Gen IV concepts. It has developed the ANTARES modular HTR reactor (pre-conceptual design completed) and is building upon its vast Sodium Fast Reactor experience to take part into the development of the next prototype. (author)

  10. Project Portfolio Management: An Investigation of One Air Force Product Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Edmunds, Bryan D

    2005-01-01

    .... This research focuses on the portfolio management (project selection and resource allocation) part of the CTRRP. The purpose of this research effort was to investigate the use of portfolio management within the Air Force...

  11. A new DEA-GAHP method for supplier selection problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Ahadian

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection is one of the most important decisions made in supply chain management. Supplier evaluation problem has been in the center of supply chain researcher’s attention in these years. Managers regard some of these studies and methods inappropriate due to simple, weight scoring methods that generally are based on subjective opinions and judgments of decision maker units involved in the supplier evaluation process yielding imprecise and even unreliable results. This paper seeks to propose a methodology to integrate data envelopment analysis (DEA and group analytical hierarchy process (GAHP for evaluating and selecting the most efficient supplier. We develop a methodology, which consists of 6 steps, one by one has been introduced in lecture and finally applicability of proposed method is indicated by assessing 12 suppliers in a numerical example.

  12. METHODICAL BASES OF MANAGEMENT OF INSURANCE PORTFOLIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdechna Yulia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the considerable arsenal of developments in the issues of assessing the management of the insurance portfolio remains unresolved. In order to detail, specify and further systematize the indicators for the indicated evaluation, the publications of scientists are analyzed. The purpose of the study is to analyze existing methods by which it is possible to formulate and manage the insurance portfolio in order to achieve its balance, which will contribute to ensuring the financial reliability of the insurance company. Results. The description of the essence of the concept of “management of insurance portfolio”, as the application of actuarial methods and techniques to the combination of various insurance risks offered for insurance or are already part of the insurance portfolio, allowing to adjust the size and structure of the portfolio in order to ensure its financial stability, achievement the maximum level of income of an insurance organization, preservation of the value of its equity and financial security of insurance liabilities. It is determined that the main methods by which the insurer’s insurance portfolio can be formed and managed is the selection of risks; reinsurance operations that ensure diversification of risks; formation and placement of insurance reserves, which form the financial basis of insurance activities. The method of managing an insurance portfolio, which can be both active and passive, is considered. Conclusions. It is determined that the insurance portfolio is the basis on which all the activities of the insurer are based and which determines its financial stability. The combination of methods and technologies applied to the insurance portfolio is a management method that can be both active and passive and has a number of specific methods through which the insurer’s insurance portfolio can be formed and managed. It is substantiated that each insurance company aims to form an efficient and

  13. Portfolio analysis based on the example of Zagreb Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan, Sinisa; Baresa, Suzana; Ivanovic, Sasa

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the portfolio that was selected from the Zagreb Stock Exchange and also try to assess its risks and its future offerings that are relevant in making the decisions about investments. Through the work we will explain the importance of diversification and how the very diversification reduces risk. We will also analyze the systemic risk of individual stocks within the portfolio and the systemic risk of the given portfolio and explain its importance. Through regression ana...

  14. Digital portfolio for learning: A new communication channel for education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judit Coromina

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The Catalonian Government has the intention of introducing the digital portfolio before 2017, an initiative related to new approaches for learning. Taking in consideration the increasing interest for digital portfolio as a new communication channel for education, the article aims are: on the one hand to describe how the digital portfolio works and on the other hand, to identify a list of criteria that should be useful for educative centers to select the best application to create the digital portfolio according to their needs.Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, a theoretical framework for portfolio functioning is described. After, applications to support the digital portfolio are classified. Next, a requirement analysis on an ideal application to support the portfolio is made, according to those phases for the portfolio creation identified in the theoretical framework. Lastly, a list of criteria is established to select the application for creating the digital portfolio.Findings and Originality/value: The article contributes to structure the portfolio creation process in some stages and phases in a wider way that it is described in the literature. In addition, a list of criteria is defined to help educative centers to select the application for managing the portfolio that fits better with their objectives. These criteria have been obtained with an exhaustive methodology.Research limitations/implications: In order to put in practice the identified criteria it is proposed to complete the multi-criteria decision model in a new study. It should include processes to weigh criteria and define normalizations. Afterwards it would be able to analyze the value of the model studying the satisfaction for using it by a sample of educative centers.Practical implications: The list of criteria identified should facilitate the selection of the more adequate application to create the learning portfolio to the educative centers, according to their

  15. Methods of Choosing an Optimal Portfolio of Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Yakovlev, A.; Chernenko, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of existing methods for a portfolio of project optimization. The necessity for their improvement is shown. It is suggested to assess the portfolio of projects on the basis of the amount in the difference between the results and costs during development and implementation of selected projects and the losses caused by non-implementation or delayed implementation of projects that were not included in the portfolio. Consideration of capital and current costs compon...

  16. PSN: Portfolio Social Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cortes, Jordi Magrina; Nizamani, Sarwat; Memon, Nasrullah

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a web-based information system which is a portfolio social network (PSN) that provides solutions to the recruiters and job seekers. The proposed system enables users to create portfolio so that he/she can add his specializations with piece of code if any specifically...

  17. Using Electronic Portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Deb

    2012-01-01

    The digitized collections of artifacts known as electronic portfolios are creating solutions to a variety of performance improvement needs in ways that are cost-effective and improve both individual and group learning and performance. When social media functionality is embedded in e-portfolios, the tools support collaboration, social learning,…

  18. Households' portfolio choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hochgürtel, S.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis presents four topics on households' portfolio choices. Empirically, households do not hold well-diversified wealth portfolios. In particular, they refrain from putting their savings into risky assets. We explore several ways that might help explaining this observation. Using Dutch

  19. Portfolio i erhvervsuddannelserne

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Materialet kombinerer korte film med introducerende tekster og belyser fra forskellige vinkler, hvordan portfolio kan bruges som evalueringsmetode i erhvervsuddannelserne. Udgiver: Undervisningsministeriet Udgivelsessted: Pub.uvm.dk......Materialet kombinerer korte film med introducerende tekster og belyser fra forskellige vinkler, hvordan portfolio kan bruges som evalueringsmetode i erhvervsuddannelserne. Udgiver: Undervisningsministeriet Udgivelsessted: Pub.uvm.dk...

  20. Beating the market with small portfolios: Evidence from Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André A.P. Santos

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal portfolios with a restriction on the number of assets, also referred to as cardinality-constrained portfolios, have been receiving attention in the literature due to its popularity among market practitioners and retail investors. In most cases, however, the interest is in proposing efficient optimization methods to solve the problem, with little or no attention to the characteristics of the resulting portfolio such as risk-adjusted performance and turnover. We address this question by implementing a tractable reformulation of the cardinality-constrained version of the minimum variance portfolio. We analyze the out-of-sample performance of cardinality-constrained portfolios according to alternative criteria and check the robustness of the results for portfolios with alternative number of assets and under alternative re-balancing frequencies. Our empirical application for the Brazilian equities market shows that cardinality-constrained minimum variance portfolios with very few assets, e.g. 3 stocks, can deliver statistically lower portfolio risk and higher Sharpe ratios in comparison to the market index. Similar results are obtained for constrained portfolios with 5 and 10 assets and under daily, weekly, and monthly re-balancing frequencies. Our evidence indicates that it is possible to obtain better risk-adjusted performance with fewer securities in the portfolio by using an improved allocation scheme.

  1. Comparisons and Characterizations of the Mean-Variance, Mean-VaR, Mean-CVaR Models for Portfolio Selection With Background Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Guo; Wing-Keung, Wong; Lixing, Zhu

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of background risk on an investor’s portfolio choice in a mean-VaR, mean-CVaR and mean-variance framework, and analyzes the characterizations of the mean-variance boundary and mean-VaR efficient frontier in the presence of background risk. We also consider the case with a risk-free security.

  2. Financial planning working capital ventures using software «analyzer bdds» sold on the basis of selection of optimal bond portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.J. Timofeeva

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the financial planning of working capital organizations, in particular presented a software implementation of the algorithm analyzes the budget forecast working capital, identify and take advantage of temporarily free money using a model of a decision on the choice of the optimal bond portfolio, consistent with the free flow of liquidity of the enterprise.

  3. A Dynamic Programming Approach to Constrained Portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Holger; Steffensen, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies constrained portfolio problems that may involve constraints on the probability or the expected size of a shortfall of wealth or consumption. Our first contribution is that we solve the problems by dynamic programming, which is in contrast to the existing literature that applies...

  4. Use of Portfolios by Medical Students: Significance of Critical Thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samy A. Azer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Portfolios have been used in the medical curriculum to evaluate difficult-to-assess areas such as students' attitudes, professionalism and teamwork. However, their use early in a problem-based learning (PBL course to foster deep learning and enhance students' self-directed learning has not been adequately studied. The aims of this paper are to: (1 understand the uses of portfolios and the rationale for using reflection in the early years of a PBL curriculum; (2 discuss how to introduce portfolios and encourage students' critical thinking skills, not just reflection; and (3 provide students with tips that could enhance their skills in constructing good portfolios.

  5. Investment portfolio management from cybernetic point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchev, Angel, Jr.; Marchev, Angel

    2013-12-01

    The theory of investment portfolios is a well defined component of financial science. While sound in principle, it faces some setbacks in its real-world implementation. In this paper the authors propose a reformulation of the investment portfolio problem as a cybernetic system where the Investor is the controlling system and the portfolio is the controlled system. Also the portfolio controlling process should be dissected in several ordered phases, so that each phase is represented as a subsystem within the structure of the controlling system Investor.

  6. Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Stefanovits

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.

  7. Portfolio at Tertiary Level – Lifelong Learning Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina Kavaliauskienė

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of electronic language portfolios has been preferable to the use of common paper portfolios for ease of application – there is no need for accumulating a number of files of written papers, which solves the problem of storing space and, to some extent, helps reduce students’ and teachers’ workload.The study investigated learners’ perceptions of employing electronic language portfolios for conducting various assignments in English for Specific Purposes. The research involved university students of different specializations. Learners’ experience of employing portfolios and opinions on their benefits for improving language skills have been analyzed and statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that students are positive about application of electronic portfolios in ESP classes. The use of online portfolios for various assignments helps teachers foster students’ learning, encourages critical thinking, develops creativity, motivates learners to use digital technology, encourages collaboration of learners, and in the long run, leads to lifelong learning.

  8. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  9. Particle swarm optimization algorithm for mean-variance portfolio optimization: A case study of Istanbul Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Akyer, Hasan; Kalaycı, Can Berk; Aygören, Hakan

    2018-01-01

    Whileinvestors used to create their portfolios according to traditional portfoliotheory in the past, today modern portfolio approach is widely preferred. Thebasis of the modern portfolio theory was suggested by Harry Markowitz with themean variance model. A greater number of securities in a portfolio is difficultto manage and has an increased transaction cost. Therefore, the number ofsecurities in the portfolio should be restricted. The problem of portfoliooptimization with cardinality constr...

  10. Declarative Modeling for Production Order Portfolio Scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banaszak Zbigniew

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A declarative framework enabling to determine conditions as well as to develop decision-making software supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises aimed at unique, multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production is discussed. A set of unique production orders grouped into portfolio orders is considered. Operations executed along different production orders share available resources following a mutual exclusion protocol. A unique product or production batch is completed while following a given activity’s network order. The problem concerns scheduling a newly inserted project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment The answers sought are: Can a given project portfolio specified by its cost and completion time be completed within the assumed time period in a manufacturing system in hand? Which manufacturing system capability guarantees the completion of a given project portfolio ordered under assumed cost and time constraints? The considered problems regard finding a computationally effective approach aimed at simultaneous routing and allocation as well as batching and scheduling of a newly ordered project portfolio subject to constraints imposed by a multi-project environment. The main objective is to provide a declarative model enabling to state a constraint satisfaction problem aimed at multi-project-like and mass customized oriented production scheduling. Multiple illustrative examples are discussed.

  11. The standard for portfolio management

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    The Standard for Portfolio Management – Fourth Edition has been updated to best reflect the current state of portfolio management. It describe the principles that drive accepted good portfolio management practices in today’s organizations. It also expands the description of portfolio management to reflect its relation to organizational project management and the organization.

  12. Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrecut, M., E-mail: mircea.andrecut@gmail.com

    2014-01-17

    We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.

  13. Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrecut, M.

    2014-01-01

    We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.

  14. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  15. Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization of Power Generation Assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Glensk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization and deregulation of the energy industry in the past decades have been significantly affected by changes in the strategies of energy firms. The traditionally used approach of cost minimization was no longer sufficient, risk and market behavior could no longer be ignored and the need for more appropriate optimization methods for uncertain environments was increased. Meanvariance portfolio (MVP theory is one of the more advanced financial methods that has been successfully applied to the energy sector. Unfortunately, this static approach is inadequate for studying multi-stage investment decision problems. The methodology proposed in this paper considering power generation assets is based on the model introduced by Mulvey, who suggests a reallocation approach using the analysis of various scenarios. The adoption of this methodology to power generation assets allows us to capture the impact of variations in the economic and technical parameters considered. The results of our study show that the application of a model for selection of multi-period portfolio can indeed improve the decision making process. Especially for the case of adding new investments to the portfolio mix, this rebalancing model captures new entries very well. (original abstract

  16. Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Portfolio allocation under the vendor managed inventory: A Markov decision process. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... This study provides a review of Markov decision processes and investigates its suitability for solutions to portfolio allocation problems under vendor managed inventory in ...

  17. Utility portfolio diversification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffes, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses portfolio analysis as a method to evaluate utility supply decisions. Specifically a utility is assumed to increase the value of its portfolio of assets whenever it invests in a new supply technology. This increase in value occurs because the new asset either enhances the return or diversifies the risks of the firm's portfolio of assets. This evaluation method is applied to two supply innovations in the electric utility industry: jointly-owned generating plants and supply contracts with independent power producers (IPPs)

  18. Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Cathrine

    2014-01-01

    on the theme, originally proposed by Fischer Black. In CPPI, a financial institution guarantees a floor value for the “insured” portfolio and adjusts the stock/bond mix to produce a leveraged exposure to the risky assets, which depends on how far the portfolio value is above the floor. Plain-vanilla portfolio...... insurance largely died with the crash of 1987, but CPPI is still going strong. In the frictionless markets of finance theory, the issuer’s strategy to hedge its liability under the contract is clear, but in the real world with transactions costs and stochastic jump risk, the optimal strategy is less obvious...

  19. Preimage Selective Trapdoor Function: How to Repair an Easy Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baocang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Public key cryptosystems are constructed by embedding a trapdoor into a one-way function. So, the one-wayness and the trapdoorness are vital to public key cryptography. In this paper, we propose a novel public key cryptographic primitive called preimage selective trapdoor function. This scenario allows to use exponentially many preimage to hide a plaintext even if the underlying function is not one-way. The compact knapsack problem is used to construct a probabilistic public key cryptosystem, the underlying encryption function of which is proven to be preimage selective trapdoor one-way functions under some linearization attack models. The constructive method can guarantee the noninjectivity of the underlying encryption function and the unique decipherability for ciphertexts simultaneously. It is heuristically argued that the security of the proposal cannot be compromised by a polynomial-time adversary even if the compact knapsack is easy to solve. We failed to provide any provable security results about the proposal; however, heuristic illustrations show that the proposal is secure against some known attacks including brute force attacks, linearization attacks, and key-recovery attacks. The proposal turns out to have acceptable key sizes and performs efficiently and hence is practical.

  20. The Effects of Portfolio Assessment on Writing of EFL Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nezakatgoo, Behzad

    2011-01-01

    The primary focus of this study was to determine the effect of portfolio assessment on final examination scores of EFL students' writing skill. To determine the impact of portfolio-based writing assessment 40 university students who enrolled in composition course were initially selected and divided randomly into two experimental and control…

  1. Can One Portfolio Measure the Six ACGME General Competencies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Robert M.; O'Sullivan, Patricia S.; McClain, Tina; Clardy, James A.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To determine that portfolios, useable by any program, can provide needed evidence of resident performance within the ACGME general competencies. Methods: Eighteen residents constructed portfolios with selected entries from thirteen psychiatric skills. Two raters assessed whether entries reflected resident performance within the general…

  2. How and why actions are selected: action selection and the dark room problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venter Elmarie

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I examine an evolutionary approach to the action selection problem and illustrate how it helps raise an objection to the predictive processing account. Clark examines the predictive processing account as a theory of brain function that aims to unify perception, action, and cognition, but - despite this aim - fails to consider action selection overtly. He off ers an account of action control with the implication that minimizing prediction error is an imperative of living organisms because, according to the predictive processing account, action is employed to fulfill expectations and reduce prediction error. One way in which this can be achieved is by seeking out the least stimulating environment and staying there (Friston et al. 2012: 2. Bayesian, neuroscientific, and machine learning approaches into a single framework whose overarching principle is the minimization of surprise (or, equivalently, the maximization of expectation. But, most living organisms do not find, and stay in, surprise free environments. This paper explores this objection, also called the “dark room problem”, and examines Clark’s response to the problem. Finally, I recommend that if supplemented with an account of action selection, Clark’s account will avoid the dark room problem.

  3. Recognizing the needs for improving the portfolio management for new products in the industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Flemming; Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    2004-01-01

    The lack of sound portfolio management for new products increases the probability that the company’s product portfolio will have a potential low business value. This research reveals that portfolio management for new products seems to be a problem in the Danish industry. Existing methods described...

  4. A Bicriteria Approach Identifying Nondominated Portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore a portfolio constructive model, formulated in terms of satisfaction of a given set of technical requirements, with the minimum number of projects and minimum redundancy. An algorithm issued from robust portfolio modeling is adapted to a vector model, modifying the dominance condition as convenient, in order to find the set of nondominated portfolios, as solutions of a bicriteria integer linear programming problem. In order to improve the former algorithm, a process finding an optimal solution of a monocriteria version of this problem is proposed, which is further used as a first feasible solution aiding to find nondominated solutions more rapidly. Next, a sorting process is applied on the input data or information matrix, which is intended to prune nonfeasible solutions early in the constructive algorithm. Numerical examples show that the optimization and sorting processes both improve computational efficiency of the original algorithm. Their limits are also shown on certain complex instances.

  5. Constructing a reflective portfolio tool: an action research on the student teachers' perceptions of their experiences

    OpenAIRE

    Zeki, Canan Perkan

    2010-01-01

    My interest into reflection and portfolio construction was developed during the 2005 Contexts for Teacher Education Module on the EdD course at the Nottingham University. Experiencing and observing some significant problems with the current portfolio stimulated me to undertake a study on portfolio construction by integrating reflection into it. The aim of this study was to examine student teachers’ perceptions of their experiences of constructing a portfolio in order to develop a more reflect...

  6. Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Rabbani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word

  7. Portfolio Management System

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — PfMS is an implementation of WorkLenz. WorkLenz is USAID's portfolio management system tool. It is a commercially available, off-the-shelf (COTS) package that...

  8. Designing Modern Equity Portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Ronald Jean Degen

    2011-01-01

    This aim of this paper is to describe possible ways of investing in equity; choosing the right stocks(among small-cap, large-cap, value, growth, and foreign) using fundamental analysis, defining their appropriate mix in the portfolios according to the desired return-risk profiles based on Markowitz?s modern portfolio theory, and using technical analysis to buy and sell them.

  9. Age differences in everyday problem-solving effectiveness: older adults select more effective strategies for interpersonal problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Fields, Fredda; Mienaltowski, Andrew; Seay, Renee Baldi

    2007-01-01

    Using the Everyday Problem Solving Inventory of Cornelius and Caspi, we examined differences in problem-solving strategy endorsement and effectiveness in two domains of everyday functioning (instrumental or interpersonal, and a mixture of the two domains) and for four strategies (avoidance-denial, passive dependence, planful problem solving, and cognitive analysis). Consistent with past research, our research showed that older adults were more problem focused than young adults in their approach to solving instrumental problems, whereas older adults selected more avoidant-denial strategies than young adults when solving interpersonal problems. Overall, older adults were also more effective than young adults when solving everyday problems, in particular for interpersonal problems.

  10. Evaluating the sustainable mining contractor selection problems: An imprecise last aggregation preference selection index method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Panahi Borujeni

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing complexity surrounding decision-making situations has made it inevitable for practitioners to apply ideas from a group of experts or decision makers (DMs instead of individuals. In a large proportion of recent studies, not enough attention has been paid to considering uncertainty in practical ways. In this paper, a hesitant fuzzy preference selection index (HFPSI method is proposed based on a new soft computing approach with risk preferences of DMs to deal with imprecise multi-criteria decision-making problems. Meanwhile, qualitative assessing criteria are considered in the process of the proposed method to help the DMs by providing suitable expressions of membership degrees for an element under a set. Moreover, the best alternative is selected based on considering the concepts of preference relation and hesitant fuzzy sets, simultaneously. Therefore, DMs' weights are determined according to the proposed hesitant fuzzy compromise solution technique to prevent judgment errors. Moreover, the proposed method has been extended based on the last aggregation method by aggregating the DMs' opinions during the last stage to avoid data loss. In this respect, a real case study about the mining contractor selection problem is provided to represent the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed HFPSI method in practice. Then, a comparative analysis is performed to show the feasibility of the presented approach. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to show the effect of considering the DMs' weights and last aggregation approach in a dispersion of the alternatives’ ranking values.

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BY FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kerimov Alexandr

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the problem of the dynamic risk management of the investment portfolio using future con- tracts. The management starts with the concept of effective inhomogeneous portfolios, which contain futures together with underlying asserts. The effective portfolios are defined as the ones of the minimal dispersion with the expected return greater or equal to the specified value. Risk is measured by the probability of losing of a certain part of the portfolio value. The control parameters are the number of futures for each asset of portfolio, which is defined from the condition of effec- tiveness of portfolio and risk acceptability on each step.The effective adaptive strategies of portfolio risk management together with comparative analysis on a concrete example are presented. The proposed approach provides the forecast correction of the expected income and its variance for the assets with the emergence of new data. The financial time series are determined by volatility clustering, i.e. relative or absolute price changes tend to keep high or low magnitude for some time, with the result that clusters are created - periods of high or low volatility. Then adaptive estimate of correlational relationships between asset prices are essential because the degree of correlational relationship also changes in time. So the correlation of future and spot price changes considerably increases while approaching to performance of contracts. For taking into account of data instability of dispersion and correlation simple methods of volatility forecasting and correlation of relative changes of price data based on exponential smoothing are implemented.

  12. Making practice transparent through e-portfolio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Sarah M

    2013-12-01

    Midwives are required to maintain a professional portfolio as part of their statutory requirements. Some midwives are using open social networking tools and processes to develop an e-portfolio. However, confidentiality of patient and client data and professional reputation have to be taken into consideration when using online public spaces for reflection. There is little evidence about how midwives use social networking tools for ongoing learning. It is uncertain how reflecting in an e-portfolio with an audience impacts on learning outcomes. This paper investigates ways in which reflective midwifery practice be carried out using e-portfolio in open, social networking platforms using collaborative processes. Using an auto-ethnographic approach I explored my e-portfolio and selected posts that had attracted six or more comments. I used thematic analysis to identify themes within the textual conversations in the posts and responses posted by readers. The analysis identified that my collaborative e-portfolio had four themes: to provide commentary and discuss issues; to reflect and process learning; to seek advice, brainstorm and process ideas for practice, projects and research, and provide evidence of professional development. E-portfolio using open social networking tools and processes is a viable option for midwives because it facilitates collaborative reflection and shared learning. However, my experience shows that concerns about what people think, and client confidentiality does impact on the nature of open reflection and learning outcomes. I conclude this paper with a framework for managing midwifery statutory obligations using online public spaces and social networking tools. Copyright © 2013 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Portfolio optimization by using linear programing models based on genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Lesmana, E.; Putra, A. S.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we discussed the investment portfolio optimization using linear programming model based on genetic algorithms. It is assumed that the portfolio risk is measured by absolute standard deviation, and each investor has a risk tolerance on the investment portfolio. To complete the investment portfolio optimization problem, the issue is arranged into a linear programming model. Furthermore, determination of the optimum solution for linear programming is done by using a genetic algorithm. As a numerical illustration, we analyze some of the stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, it is shown that the portfolio optimization performed by genetic algorithm approach produces more optimal efficient portfolio, compared to the portfolio optimization performed by a linear programming algorithm approach. Therefore, genetic algorithms can be considered as an alternative on determining the investment portfolio optimization, particularly using linear programming models.

  14. Robust Utility Maximization Under Convex Portfolio Constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matoussi, Anis; Mezghani, Hanen; Mnif, Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    We study a robust maximization problem from terminal wealth and consumption under a convex constraints on the portfolio. We state the existence and the uniqueness of the consumption–investment strategy by studying the associated quadratic backward stochastic differential equation. We characterize the optimal control by using the duality method and deriving a dynamic maximum principle

  15. Deciphering Selectivity in Organic Reactions: A Multifaceted Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcells, David; Clot, Eric; Eisenstein, Odile; Nova, Ainara; Perrin, Lionel

    2016-05-17

    Computational chemistry has made a sustained contribution to the understanding of chemical reactions. In earlier times, half a century ago, the goal was to distinguish allowed from forbidden reactions (e.g., Woodward-Hoffmann rules), that is, reactions with low or high to very high activation barriers. A great achievement of computational chemistry was also to contribute to the determination of structures with the bonus of proposing a rationalization (e.g., anomeric effect, isolobal analogy, Gillespie valence shell pair electron repulsion rules and counter examples, Wade-Mingos rules for molecular clusters). With the development of new methods and the constant increase in computing power, computational chemists move to more challenging problems, close to the daily concerns of the experimental chemists, in determining the factors that make a reaction both efficient and selective: a key issue in organic synthesis. For this purpose, experimental chemists use advanced synthetic and analytical techniques to which computational chemists added other ways of determining reaction pathways. The transition states and intermediates contributing to the transformation of reactants into the desired and undesired products can now be determined, including their geometries, energies, charges, spin densities, spectroscopy properties, etc. Such studies remain challenging due to the large number of chemical species commonly present in the reactive media whose role may have to be determined. Calculating chemical systems as they are in the experiment is not always possible, bringing its own share of complexity through the large number of atoms and the associated large number of conformers to consider. Modeling the chemical species with smaller systems is an alternative that historically led to artifacts. Another important topic is the choice of the computational method. While DFT is widely used, the vast diversity of functionals available is both an opportunity and a challenge. Though

  16. Product Portfolio Management: An Important Business Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doorasamy Mishelle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to provide reader with a comprehensive insight on the theories, empirical findings and models of Product Portfolio Management (PPM during new product development. This article will allow for an in-depth theoretical approach on PPM and demonstrate to managers the importance of adopting PPM as business strategy during decision making. The objective of this paper is to present a literature review of models, theories, approaches and findings on the relationship between Product Portfolio Management and new product development. Relevant statistical trends, historical developments, published opinion of major writers in this field will be presented to provide concrete evidence of the problem being discussed.

  17. Solutions to selected exercise problems in quantum chemistry and spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spanget-Larsen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Suggested solutions to a number of problems from the collection "Exercise Problems in Quantum Chemistry and Spectroscopy", previously published on ResearchGate (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4024.8162).......Suggested solutions to a number of problems from the collection "Exercise Problems in Quantum Chemistry and Spectroscopy", previously published on ResearchGate (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4024.8162)....

  18. Selected problems in power applications of high Tc superconductors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tønnesen, Ole; Pedersen, Niels Falsig

    2001-01-01

    Two important problems connected with power applications of BSCCO tapes are discussed: (i) the problem of developing prototypes when the tape properties are changing, and (ii) the problem of flux pinning in intrinsic BSCCO. An overview of the different projects on superconducting power cables is ...

  19. Enhanced index tracking modelling in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, W. S.; Hj. Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun bin

    2013-09-01

    Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of passive fund management in stock market. It is a dual-objective optimization problem, a trade-off between maximizing the mean return and minimizing the risk. Enhanced index tracking aims to generate excess return over the return achieved by the index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index by establishing an optimal portfolio. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal portfolio composition and performance by using weighted model in enhanced index tracking. Weighted model focuses on the trade-off between the excess return and the risk. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio for the weighted model is able to outperform the Malaysia market index which is Kuala Lumpur Composite Index because of higher mean return and lower risk without purchasing all the stocks in the market index.

  20. Minimization of the root of a quadratic functional under a system of affine equality constraints with application to portfolio management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsman, Zinoviy

    2008-10-01

    We present an explicit closed form solution of the problem of minimizing the root of a quadratic functional subject to a system of affine constraints. The result generalizes Z. Landsman, Minimization of the root of a quadratic functional under an affine equality constraint, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 2007, to appear, see sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03770427>, articles in press, where the optimization problem was solved under only one linear constraint. This is of interest for solving significant problems pertaining to financial economics as well as some classes of feasibility and optimization problems which frequently occur in tomography and other fields. The results are illustrated in the problem of optimal portfolio selection and the particular case when the expected return of finance portfolio is certain is discussed.

  1. Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

    OpenAIRE

    Pei Pei

    2010-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

  2. Statistically Efficient Construction of α-Risk-Minimizing Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Taniai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator for α-risk-minimizing portfolio weights. Based on the work of Bassett et al. (2004, an α-risk-minimizing portfolio optimization is formulated as a linear quantile regression problem. The quantile regression method uses a pseudolikelihood based on an asymmetric Laplace reference density, and asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained. We apply the results of Hallin et al. (2008 to the problem of constructing α-risk-minimizing portfolios using residual signs and ranks and a general reference density. Monte Carlo simulations assess the performance of the proposed method. Empirical applications are also investigated.

  3. Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ankirchner, Stefan, E-mail: ankirchner@hcm.uni-bonn.de [Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn, Institut fuer Angewandte Mathematik, Hausdorff Center for Mathematics (Germany); Dermoune, Azzouz, E-mail: Azzouz.Dermoune@math.univ-lille1.fr [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Laboratoire Paul Painleve UMR CNRS 8524 (France)

    2011-08-15

    The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.

  4. Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ankirchner, Stefan; Dermoune, Azzouz

    2011-01-01

    The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.

  5. Students' reflections in a portfolio pilot: highlighting professional issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haffling, Ann-Christin; Beckman, Anders; Pahlmblad, Annika; Edgren, Gudrun

    2010-01-01

    Portfolios are highlighted as potential assessment tools for professional competence. Although students' self-reflections are considered to be central in the portfolio, the content of reflections in practice-based portfolios is seldom analysed. To investigate whether students' reflections include sufficient dimensions of professional competence, notwithstanding a standardized portfolio format, and to evaluate students' satisfaction with the portfolio. Thirty-five voluntary final-year medical students piloted a standardized portfolio in a general practice (GP) attachment at Lund University, Sweden. Students' portfolio reflections were based upon documentary evidence from practice, and aimed to demonstrate students' learning. The reflections were qualitatively analysed, using a framework approach. Students' evaluations of the portfolio were subjected to quantitative and qualitative analysis. Among professional issues, an integration of cognitive, affective and practical dimensions in clinical practice was provided by students' reflections. The findings suggested an emphasis on affective issues, particularly on self-awareness of feelings, attitudes and concerns. In addition, ethical problems, clinical reasoning strategies and future communication skills training were subjects of several reflective commentaries. Students' reflections on their consultation skills demonstrated their endeavour to achieve structure in the medical interview by negotiation of an agenda for the consultation, keeping the interview on track, and using internal summarizing. The importance of active listening and exploration of patient's perspective was also emphasized. In students' case summaries, illustrating characteristic attributes of GP, the dominating theme was 'patient-centred care', including the patient-doctor relationship, holistic modelling and longitudinal continuity. Students were satisfied with the portfolio, but improved instructions were needed. A standardized portfolio in a

  6. Fault Tolerant Distributed Portfolio Optimization in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juelsgaard, Morten; Wisniewski, Rafal; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2014-01-01

    optimization scheme for power balancing, where communication is allowed only between units that are linked in the graph. We include consumers with controllable consumption as an active part of the portfolio. We show that a suboptimal, but arbitrarily good power balancing can be obtained in an uncoordinated......, distributed optimization framework, and argue that the scheme will work even if the computation time is limited. We further show that our approach can tolerate changes in the portfolio, in the sense that increasing or reducing the number of units in the portfolio requires only local updates. This ensures......This work considers a portfolio of units for electrical power production and the problem of utilizing it to maintain power balance in the electrical grid. We treat the portfolio as a graph in which the nodes are distributed generators and the links are communication paths. We present a distributed...

  7. On the Benefits of Equicorrelation for Portfolio Allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Clements; Ayesha Scott; Annastiina Silvennoinen

    2013-01-01

    The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management with large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large dimensional problems. We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times ...

  8. Agile Project Portfolio Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Rank; Riis, Jens Ove; Mikkelsen, Hans

    2005-01-01

    This paper will provide a preliminary introduction to the application of Agile Thinking in management of project portfolio and company development. At any point in time, companies have a crowd of development initiatives spread around the organisation and managed at different levels...... in the managerial hierarchy. They compete for resources and managerial attention, and they often take too long time - and some do not survive in the rapid changing context. Top man¬agers ask for speed, flexibility and effectiveness in the portfolio of development activities (projects). But which competencies...

  9. Portfolio Analysis for Vector Calculus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Samuel R.

    2015-01-01

    Classic stock portfolio analysis provides an applied context for Lagrange multipliers that undergraduate students appreciate. Although modern methods of portfolio analysis are beyond the scope of vector calculus, classic methods reinforce the utility of this material. This paper discusses how to introduce classic stock portfolio analysis in a…

  10. Selected Childrearing Tasks and Problems of Mothers and Fathers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartz, Karen W.

    1978-01-01

    Interviews with parents at two stages of the family life cycle provide comparable data on some tasks and problems of parenting. Differences in involvement and perception of problems are identified between mothers and fathers and parents in school-age and teen-age stages. Implications are drawn for parent education programs. (Author)

  11. Portfolio Diversification in the South-East European Equity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaimovic Azra

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Diversification potential enables investors to manage their risk and decrease risk exposure. Good diversification policy is a safety net that prevents a portfolio from losing its value. A well-diversified portfolio consists of different categories of property with low correlations, while highly correlated markets have the feature of low possibilities for diversification. The biggest riddle in the world of investments is to find the optimal portfolio within a set of available assets with limited capital. There are numerous studies and mathematical models that deal with portfolio investment strategies. These strategies take advantage of diversification by spreading risk over several financial assets. Modern portfolio theory seeks to find the optimal model with the best results. This paper tries to identify relationships between returns of companies traded in South-East European equity markets. A Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio optimization method is used to identify possibilities for diversification among these markets and world leading capital markets. This research also offers insight into to the level of integration of South-East European equity markets. Principal component analysis (PCA is used to determine components that describe the strong patterns and co-movements of the dataset. Finally, we combined MV efficient frontier and equity, which represent PCA components, to draw conclusions. Our findings show that PC analysis substantially simplifies asset selection process in portfolio management. The results of the paper have practical applications for portfolio investors.

  12. ANALYSIS OF PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT MATURITY: THE CASE OF A SMALL FINANCIAL INSTITUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karoline Doro Alves Carneiro

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the implementation of project portfolio management in the organizational context. The objective is to analyze the methodology of project portfolio management adopted by an organization based in the project portfolio management maturity model proposed by Rad and Levin (2006. We developed an exploratory case study in a small financial institution that experienced problems with the implementation of its methodology in project portfolio management. As a result of study, we found that the organization has maturity level 2 in portfolio project management, and that some methodology aspects are not appropriate at this level.

  13. Outcomes-Based Authentic Learning, Portfolio Assessment, and a Systems Approach to ‘Complex Problem-Solving’: Related Pillars for Enhancing the Innovative Role of PBL in Future Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron Richards

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of better reconciling individual and collective aspects of innovative problem-solving can be productively addressed to enhance the role of PBL as a key focus of the creative process in future higher education. This should involve ‘active learning’ approaches supported by related processes of teaching, assessment and curriculum. As Biggs & Tan (2011 have suggested, an integrated or systemic approach is needed for the most effective practice of outcomes-based education also especially relevant for addressing relatively simple as well as more complex problems. Such a model will be discussed in relation to the practical example of a Masters subject conceived with interdisciplinary implications, applications, and transferability: ‘sustainable policy studies in science, technology and innovation’. Different modes of PBL might be encouraged in terms of the authentic kinds of ‘complex problem-solving’ issues and challenges which increasingly confront an interdependent and changing world. PBL can be further optimized when projects or cases also involve contexts and examples of research and inquiry. However, perhaps the most crucial pillar is a model of portfolio assessment for linking and encouraging as well as distinguishing individual contributions to collaborative projects and activities.

  14. Evaluation of IP Portfolios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søberg, Peder Veng

    2009-01-01

    As a result of an inquiry concerning how to evaluate IP (intellectual property) portfolios in order to enable the best possible use of IP resources within organizations, an IP evaluation approach primarily applicable for patents and utility models is developed. The developed approach is useful...... of the organization owning the IP....

  15. Acreage portfolio management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, Georges

    1994-01-01

    This chapter demonstrates the need for acreage portfolio management at the stage of maturity which has been reached in the UK sector of the North Sea petroleum industry. It outlines the goals, the main features of the deals and the business process. (UK)

  16. Portfolio, refleksion og feedback

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Jørgen; Qvortrup, Ane; Christensen, Inger-Marie F.

    2017-01-01

    Denne leder definerer indledningsvist begrebet portfolio og gør rede for anvendelsesmuligheder i en uddannelseskontekst. Dernæst behandles portfoliometodens kvalitet og effekt for læring og undervisning og de centrale begreber refleksion, progression og feedback præsenteres og diskuteres. Herefter...

  17. Portfolio Optimization and Mortgage Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maj-Britt Nordfang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the optimal mortgage choice of an investor in a simple bond market with a stochastic interest rate and access to term life insurance. The study is based on advances in stochastic control theory, which provides analytical solutions to portfolio problems with a stochastic interest rate. We derive the optimal portfolio of a mortgagor in a simple framework and formulate stylized versions of mortgage products offered in the market today. This allows us to analyze the optimal investment strategy in terms of optimal mortgage choice. We conclude that certain extreme investors optimally choose either a traditional fixed rate mortgage or an adjustable rate mortgage, while investors with moderate risk aversion and income prefer a mix of the two. By matching specific investor characteristics to existing mortgage products, our study provides a better understanding of the complex and yet restricted mortgage choice faced by many household investors. In addition, the simple analytical framework enables a detailed analysis of how changes to market, income and preference parameters affect the optimal mortgage choice.

  18. The Role of Learning- and Presentation- Portfolios in Design Educations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Bente Dahl; Ovesen, Nis

    2014-01-01

    Students that primarily study design through team-based projects often struggle to develop presentation portfolios that differentiate from the ones of other students. In the industry, design managers experience this as a problem, as they often receive job applications with presentation portfolios...... resources from other activities, which is why the templates have to be carefully balanced in order to achieve the desired effect. The portfolio method proved to be especially good at illustrating process related competencies.......Students that primarily study design through team-based projects often struggle to develop presentation portfolios that differentiate from the ones of other students. In the industry, design managers experience this as a problem, as they often receive job applications with presentation portfolios...... of the portfolio method in engineering design educations, this research project has investigated the method as part of a course programme. The preliminary experiments and results show that learning portfolio templates are effective in strengthening certain activities. On the other hand, the method risks draining...

  19. On the numerical treatment of selected oscillatory evolutionary problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardone, Angelamaria; Conte, Dajana; D'Ambrosio, Raffaele; Paternoster, Beatrice

    2017-07-01

    We focus on evolutionary problems whose qualitative behaviour is known a-priori and exploited in order to provide efficient and accurate numerical schemes. For classical numerical methods, depending on constant coefficients, the required computational effort could be quite heavy, due to the necessary employ of very small stepsizes needed to accurately reproduce the qualitative behaviour of the solution. In these situations, it may be convenient to use special purpose formulae, i.e. non-polynomially fitted formulae on basis functions adapted to the problem (see [16, 17] and references therein). We show examples of special purpose strategies to solve two families of evolutionary problems exhibiting periodic solutions, i.e. partial differential equations and Volterra integral equations.

  20. Portfolio management of hydropower producer via stochastic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hongling; Jiang, Chuanwen; Zhang, Yan

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic linear programming framework for the hydropower portfolio management problem with uncertainty in market prices and inflows on medium term. The uncertainty is modeled as a scenario tree using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and the objective is to maximize the expected revenue over the entire scenario tree. The portfolio decisions of the stochastic model are formulated as a tradeoff involving different scenarios. Numerical results illustrate the impact of uncertainty on the portfolio management decisions, and indicate the significant value of stochastic solution. (author)

  1. Selecting The Best Initial Method For A Transportation Problem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is concerned with determining the best initial method for a transportation problem. Seven initial methods are considered and compared. One is a new method that has not been reported in the literature. Comparison is done on the basis of the number of iterations required to reach the final solution if the concerned ...

  2. Wavelet evolutionary network for complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suganya, N. C.; Vijayalakshmi Pai, G. A.

    2012-07-01

    Portfolio rebalancing problem deals with resetting the proportion of different assets in a portfolio with respect to changing market conditions. The constraints included in the portfolio rebalancing problem are basic, cardinality, bounding, class and proportional transaction cost. In this study, a new heuristic algorithm named wavelet evolutionary network (WEN) is proposed for the solution of complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing problem. Initially, the empirical covariance matrix, one of the key inputs to the problem, is estimated using the wavelet shrinkage denoising technique to obtain better optimal portfolios. Secondly, the complex cardinality constraint is eliminated using k-means cluster analysis. Finally, WEN strategy with logical procedures is employed to find the initial proportion of investment in portfolio of assets and also rebalance them after certain period. Experimental studies of WEN are undertaken on Bombay Stock Exchange, India (BSE200 index, period: July 2001-July 2006) and Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan (Nikkei225 index, period: March 2002-March 2007) data sets. The result obtained using WEN is compared with the only existing counterpart named Hopfield evolutionary network (HEN) strategy and also verifies that WEN performs better than HEN. In addition, different performance metrics and data envelopment analysis are carried out to prove the robustness and efficiency of WEN over HEN strategy.

  3. Multi-objective mean-variance-skewness model for generation portfolio allocation in electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pindoriya, N.M.; Singh, S.N. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016 (India); Singh, S.K. [Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow 226013 (India)

    2010-10-15

    This paper proposes an approach for generation portfolio allocation based on mean-variance-skewness (MVS) model which is an extension of the classical mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory, to deal with assets whose return distribution is non-normal. The MVS model allocates portfolios optimally by considering the maximization of both the expected return and skewness of portfolio return while simultaneously minimizing the risk. Since, it is competing and conflicting non-smooth multi-objective optimization problem, this paper employed a multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) based meta-heuristic technique to provide Pareto-optimal solution in a single simulation run. Using a case study of the PJM electricity market, the performance of the MVS portfolio theory based method and the classical MV method is compared. It has been found that the MVS portfolio theory based method can provide significantly better portfolios in the situation where non-normally distributed assets exist for trading. (author)

  4. Multi-objective mean-variance-skewness model for generation portfolio allocation in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pindoriya, N.M.; Singh, S.N.; Singh, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes an approach for generation portfolio allocation based on mean-variance-skewness (MVS) model which is an extension of the classical mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory, to deal with assets whose return distribution is non-normal. The MVS model allocates portfolios optimally by considering the maximization of both the expected return and skewness of portfolio return while simultaneously minimizing the risk. Since, it is competing and conflicting non-smooth multi-objective optimization problem, this paper employed a multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) based meta-heuristic technique to provide Pareto-optimal solution in a single simulation run. Using a case study of the PJM electricity market, the performance of the MVS portfolio theory based method and the classical MV method is compared. It has been found that the MVS portfolio theory based method can provide significantly better portfolios in the situation where non-normally distributed assets exist for trading. (author)

  5. A Simulation Approach to Statistical Estimation of Multiperiod Optimal Portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Shiraishi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time multiperiod portfolio choice problems under AR(1 process. The method is applicable even if the distributions of return processes are unknown. We first generate simulation sample paths of the random returns by using AR bootstrap. Then, for each sample path and each investment time, we obtain an optimal portfolio estimator, which optimizes a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA utility function. When an investor considers an optimal investment strategy with portfolio rebalancing, it is convenient to introduce a value function. The most important difference between single-period portfolio choice problems and multiperiod ones is that the value function is time dependent. Our method takes care of the time dependency by using bootstrapped sample paths. Numerical studies are provided to examine the validity of our method. The result shows the necessity to take care of the time dependency of the value function.

  6. China's Environmental Problems: Selected Issues and Solutions in Context

    OpenAIRE

    Tisdell, Clem

    1996-01-01

    China has experienced outstanding economic growth in recent decades, but not without environmental problems and costs. Environmental costs have included increased air and water pollution, loss of natural vegetation cover and deforestation, soil erosion and a decline in the fertility of the soil and biodiversity loss. Consequently, some writers have questioned whether China’s rate of growth is environmentally sustainable and doubt if China will attain middle-income status in the next century b...

  7. Selected problems of protecting and managing historical ruins in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Fortuna-Marek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Historical ruins have long been the object of interest for the research –workers of various disciplines as well as the conservators of historical monuments. The main problem is the form of protection. The standard of protecting ruins in the so-called permanent ruin form was elaborated two centuries ago, however, it is still the subject of numerous discussions, conferences, scientific-research works. The main source of doubts as to the permanent ruin is its incompleteness,(deficiency illegibility and the highly restricted possibilities of making any use of it, whereas the contemporary protection of monuments assumes their accessibility and the widest possible use for contemporary functions. That is why the main issue in contemporary maintenance of historical ruins is to ensure them a proper management system. The problem of protecting historical ruins has universal character. In Poland it concerns the resources of about 200 historical ruins, first and foremost of the mediaeval castles. That is why the Polish conservator circles have intensified the works aiming at the solution of the problem through the organization of programs, projects and conferences. A highly estimated result of those efforts is a programmatic document entitled “The Protection Charter of Historical Ruins”. It comprises a set of rules that determine the form of maintenance of historical ruins. However, the issues of management, development and use of the historical ruins still await a solution.

  8. Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xisong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.

  9. Problems of selectivity in liquid-phase oxidation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emanuel, N M

    1978-07-01

    Based on a kinetic analysis of a generalized scheme for radical-chain process and on published experimental results, factors determining the selectivities of various liquid-phase oxidations of organic compounds are examined, including the kinetic chain length, molecular and chain decomposition of products, and competing routes in the initiated oxidation or autoxidation of hydrocarbons to peroxides. Also discussed are selective inhibition of undesirable routes in chain reactions, e.g., styrene and acetaldehyde co-oxidation; activation of molecular oxygen by variable-valence metal compounds used as homogeneous catalysts; modeling of fermentative processes by oxidation of hydrocarbons in complex catalytic systems, e.g., hydroxylation of alkanes, epoxidation or carbonylation of olefins, or oxidation of alcohols and ketones to acids; and the mechanisms of heterogeneous catalysis in liquid-phase reactions, e.g., oxidation of alkylaromatic hydrocarbons to peroxides and co-oxidation of propylene and acetaldehyde.

  10. Portfolio Optimization Using Particle Swarms with Stripes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Villalobos Arias

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper it is consider the Portfolio Optimization Problem developed by Markowitz [11]. The basic assumption is that the investor tries to maximize his/her profit and at the same time, wants to minimize the risk. This problem is usually solved using a scalarization approach (with one objective. Here it is solved it as a bi-objective  optimization problem. It uses a new version of the algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization for Multi-Objective Problems to which it implemented a method of the stripes to improve dispersion.

  11. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Bogdan

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the portfolio that was selected from the Zagreb Stock Exchange and also try to assess its risks and its future offerings that are relevant in making the decisions about investments. Through the work we will explain the importance of diversification and how the very diversification reduces risk. We will also analyze the systemic risk of individual stocks within the portfolio and the systemic risk of the given portfolio and explain its importance. Through regression analysis we will analyze the securities with the highest and lowest systemic risk and will clarify the results. At the end we will explain the correlation in the selected portfolio and point out the importance of the correlation and diversification itself.

  12. Optimal Premium Pricing for a Heterogeneous Portfolio of Insurance Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Pantelous, Athanasios A.; Frangos, Nicholas E.; Zimbidis, Alexandros A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper revisits the classical problem of premium rating within a heterogeneous portfolio of insurance risks using a continuous stochastic control framework. The portfolio is divided into several classes where each class interacts with the others. The risks are modelled dynamically by the means of a Brownian motion. This dynamic approach is also transferred to the design of the premium process. The premium is not constant but equals the drift of the Brownian motion plus a controlled percent...

  13. Diagrammatics lectures on selected problems in condensed matter theory

    CERN Document Server

    Sadovskii, Michael V

    2006-01-01

    The introduction of quantum field theory methods has led to a kind of "revolution" in condensed matter theory. This resulted in the increased importance of Feynman diagrams or diagram technique. It has now become imperative for professionals in condensed matter theory to have a thorough knowledge of this method.There are many good books that cover the general aspects of diagrammatic methods. At the same time, there has been a rising need for books that describe calculations and methodical "know how" of specific problems for beginners in graduate and postgraduate courses. This unique collection

  14. Physics and astrophysics a selection of key problems

    CERN Document Server

    Ginzburg, Vitalii Lazarevich

    2013-01-01

    Physics and Astrophysics discusses some major problems concerned with macrophysics. Such topics as the controlled thermonuclear fusion, high- temperature superconductivity, and metallic exciton liquid in semiconductors are covered. The definition and elements related to microphysics are discussed. This section focuses on mass spectrum, quarks and gluons, and the interaction of particles at high and super high energies. The book gives a brief overview of the general theory of relativity. The production and origin of gravitational waves are discussed in detail. Cosmology is the study of space an

  15. Regularization theory for ill-posed problems selected topics

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Thismonograph is a valuable contribution to thehighly topical and extremly productive field ofregularisationmethods for inverse and ill-posed problems. The author is an internationally outstanding and acceptedmathematicianin this field. In his book he offers a well-balanced mixtureof basic and innovative aspects.He demonstrates new,differentiatedviewpoints, and important examples for applications. The bookdemontrates thecurrent developments inthe field of regularization theory,such as multiparameter regularization and regularization in learning theory. The book is written for graduate and PhDs

  16. THE EXTREME WEIGHTS IN THE INDEX PORTFOLIO OF CONSTANT-PROPORTION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury F. Kasimov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the optimal of constant proportion index portfolio strategies. They are also called passive strategies which are becoming more common in Russia and abroad. They are significantly cheaper to implement than active strategies. In addition, as practice shows, in the long term they are more profitable and less risky. The main problem in these strategies is the choice of the proportions in which the investor allocates his capital between risky and risk-free assets. In constant proportion index portfolio the weight of risk asset remains constant throughout investment period. For this purpose, the investor with a certain frequency restores the desired balance between risky and risk-free assets. Each period at the beginning of which such recovery occurs is called the re-balancing period. In the case of strategies with index portfolios, risky assets are the shares of the index fund, and risk-free assets are the deposits in reliable bank or government bonds. According on the daily value of units of these funds and the annual interest rate for the 11-year period, using a specially developed program optimal weight index funds in the portfolios has been found. Parameters of the analyzed portfolios are: length of the investment period (from one year to 10 years and the frequency of weight rebalancing (month, quarter, year. The sequence of optimal weights and the corresponding optimum yield for consecutive investment periods with a specified frequency of re-balancing were determined for each fund. It was found that in almost all cases, the optimal weights of fund equals the extreme values 0 or 1. Also, the frequencies of these values in the selected sequence is about the same for all funds. This empiric fact can be conventionally called the principle of extremeness or “all or nothing” principle. 

  17. Strategic innovation portfolio management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanković Ljiljana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In knowledge-based economy, strategic innovation portfolio management becomes more and more important and critical factor of enterprise's success. Value creation for all the participants in value chain is more successful if it is based on efficient resource allocation and improvement of innovation performances. Numerous researches have shown that companies with best position on the market found their competitiveness on efficient development and exploitation of innovations. In decision making process, enterprise's management is constantly faced with challenge to allocate resources and capabilities as efficiently as possible, in both short and long term. In this paper authors present preliminary results of realized empirical research related to strategic innovation portfolio management in ten chosen enterprises in Serbia. The structure of the paper includes the following parts: theoretical background, explanation of research purpose and methodology, discussion of the results and concluding remarks, including limitations and directions for further research.

  18. Acreage portfolio management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, G.M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the need for managing the acreage portfolio in the UK North Sea arises from fragmentation of holdings and complex field partnerships. The main concepts are building up the heartlands and balancing cashflow forecasts. This has generated a number of friendly win-win deals, motivated by differences in perception of values. The business process includes identifying, evaluating and negotiating deals. The Petroleum Economist plays a central role throughout this process, seeking value gaps and supporting negotiations. Variations in reserves estimates present a major source of value gaps between buyer and seller. Economists need to work closely with engineers and geologists. Portfolio management is an exciting and challenging task which broadens the traditional role of the Petroleum Economist

  19. Hvorfor anvende portfolio eksamen?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elley, Tina Ninka

    2015-01-01

    from the clinical part. The two topics are weighted according to the distribution of ECTS points between theory and clinic. We implemented the portfolio format in November 2012, and the evaluations from the students have shown that the format is good; the students get less stressed at the exam......In Denmark the Biomedical Laboratory Scientist programme lasts for 3½ years, divided into 14 modules of 10 weeks. Every module concludes with an exam, which can be very stressful for the students. A survey was made among the students, confirming this. How can we change some of the exams in order...... to minimize the students' stress level? Then the pedagogical considerations started – where and how to do this? The conclusion was to work with the portfolio format at module 6 and module 7 and make it the exam form, as it was possible to divide the expected learning outcome for the two modules into topics...

  20. Acreage portfolio management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the need to manage U.K. North Sea acreage portfolios arises from fragmentation of holdings and complex partnerships. This management has generated friendly rationalization deals motivated by differences in perception of values and aimed at building up heartlands and balancing cash-flow forecasts. The business process includes identifying, evaluating, and negotiating deals. The economist plays a central role within the evaluation team and supports the negotiators

  1. Parameter Subset Selection Techniques for Problems in Mathematical Biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Christian; Smith, Ralph; Tran, Hien

    2015-01-01

    Patient-specific models for diagnostics and treatment planning require reliable parameter estimation and model predictions. Mathematical models of physiological systems are often formulated as systems of nonlinear ODEs with many parameters and few options for measuring all state variables....... Consequently, it can be difficult to determine which parameters can reliably be estimated from the available data. This investigation highlights some pitfalls associated with parameters that are unidentifiable in the sense that they are not uniquely determined by responses, and presents methods for recognizing...... and addressing identifiability problems. These methods quantify the magnitude of parameter influence through sensitivity analysis, and parameter interactions that might complicate unambiguous parameter estimation. The methods will be demonstrated using five examples of increasing complexity, as well...

  2. Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2016-10-01

    The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

  3. Portfolios in Saudi medical colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fida, Nadia M.; Shamim, Muhammad S.

    2016-01-01

    Over recent decades, the use of portfolios in medical education has evolved, and is being applied in undergraduate and postgraduate programs worldwide. Portfolios, as a learning process and method of documenting and assessing learning, is supported as a valuable tool by adult learning theories that stress the need for learners to be self-directed and to engage in experiential learning. Thoughtfully implemented, a portfolio provides learning experiences unequaled by any single learning tool. The credibility (validity) and dependability (reliability) of assessment through portfolios have been questioned owing to its subjective nature; however, methods to safeguard these features have been described in the literature. This paper discusses some of this literature, with particular attention to the role of portfolios in relation to self-reflective learning, provides an overview of current use of portfolios in undergraduate medical education in Saudi Arabia, and proposes research-based guidelines for its implementation and other similar contexts. PMID:26905344

  4. Do portfolios have a future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driessen, Erik

    2017-03-01

    While portfolios have seen an unprecedented surge in popularity, they have also become the subject of controversy: learners often perceive little gain from writing reflections as part of their portfolios; scholars question the ethics of such obligatory reflection; and students, residents, teachers and scholars alike condemn the bureaucracy surrounding portfolio implementation in competency-based education. It could be argued that mass adoption without careful attention to purpose and format may well jeopardize portfolios' viability in health sciences education. This paper explores this proposition by addressing the following three main questions: (1) Why do portfolios meet with such resistance from students and teachers, while educators love them?; (2) Is it ethical to require students to reflect and then grade their reflections?; (3) Does competency-based education empower or hamper the learner during workplace-based learning? Twenty-five years of portfolio reveal a clear story: without mentoring, portfolios have no future and are nothing short of bureaucratic hurdles in our competency-based education programs. Moreover, comprehensive portfolios, which are integrated into the curriculum and much more diverse in content than reflective portfolios, can serve as meaningful patient charts, providing doctor and patient with useful information to discuss well-being and treatment. In this sense, portfolios are also learner charts that comprehensively document progress in a learning trajectory which is lubricated by meaningful dialogue between learner and mentor in a trusting relationship to foster learning. If we are able to make such comprehensive and meaningful use of portfolios, then, yes, portfolios do have a bright future in medical education.

  5. Project Portfolio Management Applications Testing

    OpenAIRE

    Paul POCATILU

    2006-01-01

    Many IT companies are running project simultaneously. In order to achieve the best results, they have to group to the project in portfolios, and to use specific software that helps to manage them. Project portfolio management applications have a high degree of complexity and they are very important for the companies that are using it. This paper focuses on some characteristics of the testing process for project portfolio management applications

  6. Project Portfolio Management Applications Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul POCATILU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Many IT companies are running project simultaneously. In order to achieve the best results, they have to group to the project in portfolios, and to use specific software that helps to manage them. Project portfolio management applications have a high degree of complexity and they are very important for the companies that are using it. This paper focuses on some characteristics of the testing process for project portfolio management applications

  7. Portfolio insurance using traded options

    OpenAIRE

    Machado-Santos, Carlos

    2001-01-01

    Literature concerning the institutional use of options indicates that the main purpose of option trading is to provide investors with the opportunity to create return distributions previously unavailable, considering that options provide the means to manipulate portfolio returns. In such a context, this study intends to analyse the returns of insured portfolios generated by hedging strategies on underlying stock portfolios. Because dynamic hedging is too expensive, we have hedged the stock po...

  8. Specific patterns in portfolio analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In the mid-twentieth century, under an unprecedented growth of the business of trading in securities, the need to provide a modern framework for assessing the performance of portfolios of financial instruments was felt. To that effect, it is noted that over this period, more and more economists have attempted to develop statistical mathematical models that ensure the evaluation of profitability and portfolio risk securities. These models are considered to be part of "the modern portfolio theory".

  9. Information Systems’ Portfolio: Contributions of Enterprise and Process Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Fernandes

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We are witnessing a need for a quick and intelligent reaction from organizations to the level and speed of change in business processes.New information technologies and systems (IT/IS are challenging business models and products. One of the great shakes comes from the online and/or mobile apps and platforms.These are having a tremendous impact in launching innovative and competitive services through the combination of digital and physical features. This leads to actively rethink enterprise information systems’ portfolio, its management and suitability. One relevant way for enterprises to manage their IT/IS in order to cope with those challenges is enterprise and process architecture. A decision-making culture based on processes helps to understand and define the different elements that shape an organization and how those elements inter-relate inside and outside it. IT/IS portfolio management requires an increasing need of modeling data and process flows for better discerning and acting at its selection and alignment with business goals. The new generation of enterprise architecture (NGEA helps to design intelligent processes that answer quickly and creatively to new and challenging trends. This has to be open, agile and context-aware to allow well-designed services that match users’ expectations. This study includes two real cases/problems to solve quickly in companies and solutions are presented in line with this architectural approach.

  10. Application of the maximal covering location problem to habitat reserve site selection: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    The Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) is a classic model from the location science literature which has found wide application. One important application is to a fundamental problem in conservation biology, the Maximum Covering Species Problem (MCSP), which identifies land parcels to protect to maximize the number of species represented in the selected sites. We...

  11. Route Selection Problem Based on Hopfield Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kojic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Transport network is a key factor of economic, social and every other form of development in the region and the state itself. One of the main conditions for transport network development is the construction of new routes. Often, the construction of regional roads is dominant, since the design and construction in urban areas is quite limited. The process of analysis and planning the new roads is a complex process that depends on many factors (the physical characteristics of the terrain, the economic situation, political decisions, environmental impact, etc. and can take several months. These factors directly or indirectly affect the final solution, and in combination with project limitations and requirements, sometimes can be mutually opposed. In this paper, we present one software solution that aims to find Pareto optimal path for preliminary design of the new roadway. The proposed algorithm is based on many different factors (physical and social with the ability of their increase. This solution is implemented using Hopfield's neural network, as a kind of artificial intelligence, which has shown very good results for solving complex optimization problems.

  12. Addressing selected problems of the modelling of digital control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2004-12-01

    The introduction of digital systems to practical activities at nuclear power plants brings about new requirements for their modelling for the purposes of reliability analyses required for plant licensing as well as for inclusion into PSA studies and subsequent use in applications for the assessment of events, limits and conditions, and risk monitoring. It is very important to assess, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the effect of this change on operational safety. The report describes selected specific features of reliability analysis of digital system and recommends methodological procedures. The chapters of the report are as follows: (1) Flexibility and multifunctionality of the system. (2) General framework of reliability analyses (Understanding the system; Qualitative analysis; Quantitative analysis; Assessment of results, comparison against criteria; Documenting system reliability analyses; Asking for comments and their evaluation); and (3) Suitable reliability models (Reliability models of basic events; Monitored components with repair immediately following defect or failure; Periodically tested components; Constant unavailability (probability of failure to demand); Application of reliability models for electronic components; Example of failure rate decomposition; Example modified for diagnosis successfulness; Transfer of reliability analyses to PSA; Common cause failures - CCF; Software backup and CCF type failures, software versus hardware). (P.A.)

  13. Financial Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, M.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates whether financial advisers add value to individual investors portfolio decisions by comparing portfolios of advised and self-directed (execution-only) Dutch individual investors. The results indicate significant differences in characteristics and portfolios between these

  14. A class of multi-period semi-variance portfolio for petroleum exploration and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiulin; Li, Jianzhong; Zou, Caineng; Guo, Yujuan; Yan, Wei

    2012-10-01

    Variance is substituted by semi-variance in Markowitz's portfolio selection model. For dynamic valuation on exploration and development projects, one period portfolio selection is extended to multi-period. In this article, a class of multi-period semi-variance exploration and development portfolio model is formulated originally. Besides, a hybrid genetic algorithm, which makes use of the position displacement strategy of the particle swarm optimiser as a mutation operation, is applied to solve the multi-period semi-variance model. For this class of portfolio model, numerical results show that the mode is effective and feasible.

  15. Portfolio langagier en francais (Language Portfolios in French).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laplante, Bernard; Christiansen, Helen

    2001-01-01

    Suggests that first-year college students learning French should create a language portfolio that contains documents that illustrate what they have learned in French, along with a brief statement of what linguistic skill the document demonstrates. The goal of the portfolio is to make students more aware of their own learning, their strengths, and…

  16. Management of Portfolio Investment Held by Pension Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the fact that pension funds are financial intermediaries, the value of their assets and liabilities is influenced by changing conditions in financial markets. The market image of a pension fund (and hence its perceived value are closely tied to the “financial health” of the fund. Setting up and managing complex investment portfolios requires that pension administrators use scientific models of portfolio selection and optimization based on the risk-expected return relationship. Most investment portfolios are modified in time as result of changing stock prices and investment policy objectives. Having established investment policy guidelines, the administrators of pension funds have to determine the structure of their portfolios so that the latter meet legal requirements.

  17. A General Framework for Portfolio Theory. Part I: theory and various models

    OpenAIRE

    Maier-Paape, Stanislaus; Zhu, Qiji Jim

    2017-01-01

    Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz [H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection, 1959] and its natural generalization, the capital market pricing model, [W. F. Sharpe, Mutual fund performance , 1966] are spe...

  18. The selection problem for discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equations: some non-convex cases

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Mitake, Hiroyoshi; Tran, Hung V.

    2018-01-01

    Here, we study the selection problem for the vanishing discount approximation of non-convex, first-order Hamilton–Jacobi equations. While the selection problem is well understood for convex Hamiltonians, the selection problem for non-convex Hamiltonians has thus far not been studied. We begin our study by examining a generalized discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equation. Next, using an exponential transformation, we apply our methods to strictly quasi-convex and to some non-convex Hamilton–Jacobi equations. Finally, we examine a non-convex Hamiltonian with flat parts to which our results do not directly apply. In this case, we establish the convergence by a direct approach.

  19. The selection problem for discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equations: some non-convex cases

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2018-01-26

    Here, we study the selection problem for the vanishing discount approximation of non-convex, first-order Hamilton–Jacobi equations. While the selection problem is well understood for convex Hamiltonians, the selection problem for non-convex Hamiltonians has thus far not been studied. We begin our study by examining a generalized discounted Hamilton–Jacobi equation. Next, using an exponential transformation, we apply our methods to strictly quasi-convex and to some non-convex Hamilton–Jacobi equations. Finally, we examine a non-convex Hamiltonian with flat parts to which our results do not directly apply. In this case, we establish the convergence by a direct approach.

  20. A robust optimisation approach to the problem of supplier selection and allocation in outsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yelin; Keung Lai, Kin; Liang, Liang

    2016-03-01

    We formulate the supplier selection and allocation problem in outsourcing under an uncertain environment as a stochastic programming problem. Both the decision-maker's attitude towards risk and the penalty parameters for demand deviation are considered in the objective function. A service level agreement, upper bound for each selected supplier's allocation and the number of selected suppliers are considered as constraints. A novel robust optimisation approach is employed to solve this problem under different economic situations. Illustrative examples are presented with managerial implications highlighted to support decision-making.

  1. UK Household Portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Banks, James; Smith, Sarah

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed analysis of the composition of household portfolios, using both aggregate and micro-data. Among the key findings are that: Most household wealth is held in the form of housing and pensions. Over time, there has been a shift away from housing towards financial assets, driven largely by the growth in life and pension funds. Liquid financial wealth (excluding life and pension funds) is not predominantly held in risky form. By far the most commonly held asset is an ...

  2. IT Portfolio Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kristian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

    2012-01-01

    As public organizations increasingly rely on IT-enabled development to provide faster cycle times and better services, IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. This research adopts engaged scholarship to investigate IT PPM practices within a large local government...... information about internal recourses, (4) Lack of operational goals to hold IT projects accountable, (5) No account of actual IT project costs. These results may be used to inform further research into IT PPM and to help managers improve IT PPM practices in public organizations in their effort of increase...

  3. Æstetik og portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldahl, Kirsten Kofod; Sams, Pernille; Egelund, Karen Stine

    2017-01-01

    Nærværende artikel præsenterer resultaterne af udviklingsprojektet ”Portfolio og æstetik” på pædagoguddannelsen i Hjørring. Projektet har til formål, gennem æstetisk formsprog, at stilladsere og fastholde de studerendes læreprocesser samt udvikle og implementere portfolio i studieaktiviteter på...

  4. Risk and utility in portfolio optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.

    2003-06-01

    Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.

  5. Venture capital and efficiency of portfolio companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Thillai Rajan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Venture Capital (VC has emerged as the dominant source of finance for entrepreneurial and early stage businesses, and the Indian VC industry in particular has clocked the fastest growth rate globally. Academic literature reveals that VC funded companies show superior performance to non VC funded companies. However, given that venture capitalists (VCs select and fund only the best companies, how much credit can they take for the performance of the companies they fund? Do the inherent characteristics of the firm result in superior performance or do VCs contribute to the performance of the portfolio company after they have entered the firm? A panel that comprised VCs, an entrepreneur and an academic debated these and other research questions on the inter-relationships between VC funding and portfolio firm performance. Most empirical literature indicates that the value addition effect dominates the selection effect in accounting for the superior performance of VC funded companies. The panel discussion indicates that the context as well as the experience of the General Partners in the VC firms can influence the way VCs contribute to the efficiency of their portfolio companies.

  6. USEFULNESS OF BOOTSTRAPPING IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Radovanov

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper contains a comparison of in-sample and out-of-sample performances between the resampled efficiency technique, patented by Richard Michaud and Robert Michaud (1999, and traditional Mean-Variance portfolio selection, presented by Harry Markowitz (1952. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation, data (samples generation process determines the algorithms by using both, parametric and nonparametric bootstrap techniques. Resampled efficiency provides the solution to use uncertain information without the need for constrains in portfolio optimization. Parametric bootstrap process starts with a parametric model specification, where we apply Capital Asset Pricing Model. After the estimation of specified model, the series of residuals are used for resampling process. On the other hand, nonparametric bootstrap divides series of price returns into the new series of blocks containing previous determined number of consecutive price returns. This procedure enables smooth resampling process and preserves the original structure of data series.

  7. Seleção e alocação de recursos em portfólio de projetos: estudo de caso no setor químico Portfolio of projects: case study of selection and balancing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa Padovani

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Escolher dentre dezenas ou centenas de alternativas, aquelas que deverão compor o portfólio de projetos de uma organização e com qual prioridade, é um problema de decisão multicritério complexo. Este trabalho teve como foco duas etapas críticas da gestão de portfólio: a seleção de projetos e a alocação de recursos. A abordagem metodológica utilizada foi a pesquisa-ação, partindo-se de uma estrutura teórico-conceitual que integra os métodos AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process e programação inteira em um modelo híbrido. A pesquisa de campo foi desenvolvida em uma empresa do setor químico, escolhida como unidade de análise, na qual foi implementado o modelo híbrido, de tal forma que os diferentes cenários propostos fossem comparados com o cenário real da organização estudada. Pretendeu-se avaliar a importância e utilidade desse modelo no auxílio à tomada de decisões relacionadas à seleção, priorização e alocação de recursos em projetos. Como principal resultado obtido, verificou-se que o uso do modelo contribui para o alinhamento estratégico, melhora a troca de informações entre os tomadores de decisão da empresa; possibilita a simulação de cenários estratégicos em tempo real e a verificação do impacto na carteira de projetos em execução; prioriza os projetos de forma justificável e estruturada; e permite a alocação de recursos baseada em prioridades.Among dozens or hundreds of alternatives, choosing those which should make up the projects portfolio of an organization and which priority level is a complex multi-criteria decision matter. This work aims to apply a management model of projects portfolio, using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process method and an integrated integer program. Another purpose is to validate and evaluate the importance and use of the model to help the decision-making related to the selection, prioritization and balance of projects. Thus, such a model was applied to select and

  8. An unbalanced portfolio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federsel, Hans-Jurgen

    2009-06-01

    An excellent demonstration of how meaningful and valuable conferences devoted to the topic of project and portfolio management in the pharmaceutical industry can be, was given at an event organized in Barcelona, September 2008. Thus, over this 2-day meeting the delegates were updated on the state of the art in this wide-reaching area from speakers representing an array of companies; from small, relatively new players, via mid-sized, to established large and big pharmas. One common theme that emerged was the importance of assessing the value of drug projects as correctly as possible, especially under the current financial climate and the many challenges facing the industry. Furthermore, experiences from constructing portfolios with the aim to minimize risk and maximize return on investment were shared alongside mathematical approaches to obtain the data required for this purpose and accounts of the pleasures and hardships working in a global context and in partnership constellations. Copyright 2009 Prous Science, S.A.U. or its licensors. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis Of Dynamic Portfolio Allocation Of Indonesian LQ45 During 2005 – 2011 Following The Markowitz Theowry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustini Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The research observed that equity portfolio and investment managers were facing challenges in determining the optimum portfolio, especially during the turbulent times. As a result, they needed to implement portfolio management strategies to overcome the risk associated with stock return volatility in turbulence periods. This research focused on selecting stocks from the LQ-45 index during 2005-2011 using The Markowitz theory combining the Solver Linear Programming. The portfolio selection method which has been introduced by Markowitz (1952 used variance or standard deviation as a risk measurement. The result of this research proves that the composition of the portfolio is not the same in the different period. In the bearish period, the composition of the optimum portfolio is dominated by the banking sector and manufacture sector. In the bullish period, the optimum portfolio is dominated by the commodity stocks.

  10. Equity portfolio optimization: A DEA based methodology applied to the Zagreb Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Gardijan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Most strategies for selection portfolios focus on utilizing solely market data and implicitly assume that stock markets communicate all relevant information to all market stakeholders, and that these markets cannot be influenced by investor activities. However convenient, this is a limited approach, especially when applied to small and illiquid markets such as the Croatian market, where such assumptions are hardly realistic. Thus, there is a demand for including other sources of data, such as financial reports. Research poses the question of whether financial ratios as criteria for stock selection are of any use to Croatian investors. Financial and market data from selected publicly companies listed on the Croatian capital market are used. A two-stage portfolio selection strategy is applied, where the first stage involves selecting stocks based on the respective Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA efficiency scores. DEA models are becoming popular in stock portfolio selection given that the methodology includes numerous models that provide a great flexibility in selecting inputs and outputs, which in turn are considered as criteria for portfolio selection. Accordingly, there is much room for improvement of the current proposed strategies for selecting portfolios. In the second stage, two portfolio-weighting strategies are applied using equal proportions and score-weighting. To show whether these strategies create outstanding out–of–sample portfolios in time, time-dependent DEA Window Analysis is applied using a reference time of one year, and portfolio returns are compared with the market portfolio for each period. It is found that the financial data are a significant indicator of the future performance of a stock and a DEA-based portfolio strategy outperforms market return.

  11. SOCP relaxation bounds for the optimal subset selection problem applied to robust linear regression

    OpenAIRE

    Flores, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of finding the globally optimal subset of h elements from a larger set of n elements in d space dimensions so as to minimize a quadratic criterion, with an special emphasis on applications to computing the Least Trimmed Squares Estimator (LTSE) for robust regression. The computation of the LTSE is a challenging subset selection problem involving a nonlinear program with continuous and binary variables, linked in a highly nonlinear fashion. The selection of a ...

  12. Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Katherine Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…

  13. Random Matrix Theory Approach to Indonesia Energy Portfolio Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahardhika, Alifian; Purqon, Acep

    2017-07-01

    In a few years, Indonesia experienced difficulties in maintaining energy security, the problem is the decline in oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 861 thousand barrels per day in 2012. However, there is a difference condition in 2015 until the third week in 2016, world oil prices actually fell at the lowest price level since last 12 years. The decline in oil prices due to oversupply of oil by oil-producing countries of the world due to the instability of the world economy. Wave of layoffs in Indonesia is a response to the decline in oil prices, this led to the energy and mines portfolios Indonesia feared would not be more advantageous than the portfolio in other countries. In this research, portfolio analysis will be done on energy and mining in Indonesia by using stock price data of energy and mines in the period 26 November 2010 until April 1, 2016. It was found that the results have a wide effect of the market potential is high in the determination of the return on the portfolio energy and mines. Later, it was found that there are eight of the thirty stocks in the energy and mining portfolio of Indonesia which have a high probability of return relative to the average return of stocks in a portfolio of energy and mines.

  14. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  15. Analysis of the Capability Portfolio Review (CPR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    10  2.4.1.1.  The Basics of Modern Portfolio Theory ...of Modern Portfolio Theory Much of modern portfolio management has been motivated by the influential work of Harry Markowitz (Markowitz, 1952) and...unsystematic risk associated with individual stocks, leaving only the generally market risk (Walls, 2004). The basic assumption of modern portfolio theory is

  16. 12 CFR 347.108 - Portfolio investments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Portfolio investments. 347.108 Section 347.108... INTERNATIONAL BANKING § 347.108 Portfolio investments. (a) Portfolio investments. If a bank, directly or indirectly, acquires or holds an equity interest in a foreign organization as a portfolio investment and the...

  17. Answers to selected problems in multivariable calculus with linear algebra and series

    CERN Document Server

    Trench, William F

    1972-01-01

    Answers to Selected Problems in Multivariable Calculus with Linear Algebra and Series contains the answers to selected problems in linear algebra, the calculus of several variables, and series. Topics covered range from vectors and vector spaces to linear matrices and analytic geometry, as well as differential calculus of real-valued functions. Theorems and definitions are included, most of which are followed by worked-out illustrative examples.The problems and corresponding solutions deal with linear equations and matrices, including determinants; vector spaces and linear transformations; eig

  18. QUANTITY DISCOUNTS IN SUPPLIER SELECTION PROBLEM BY USE OF FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA PROGRAMMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tunjo Perić

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection in supply chain is a multi-criteria problem that involves a number of quantitative and qualitative factors. This paper deals with a concrete problem of flour purchase by a company that manufactures bakery products and the purchasing price of flour depends on the quantity ordered. The criteria for supplier selection and quantities supplied by individual suppliers are: purchase costs, product quality and reliability of suppliers. The problem is solved using a model that combines revised weighting method and fuzzy multi-criteria linear programming (FMCLP. The paper highlights the efficiency of the proposed methodology in conditions when purchasing prices depend on order quantities.

  19. EFL Writers' Attitudes and Perceptions toward F-Portfolio Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Selami

    2014-01-01

    Atitudes toward and perceptions of using Facebook as a portfolio-keeping tool in teaching English as a foreign language (EFL) writing. In general, existing research reveals primarily positive effects of Facebook on educational activities, and research on portfolio keeping in EFL writing shows both benefits and problem areas. Thus, the current…

  20. Portfolio management using value at risk: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.A.F. Dallagnol (V. A F); J.H. van den Berg (Jan); L. Mous (Lonneke)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, it is shown a comparison of the application of particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms to portfolio management, in a constrained portfolio optimization problem where no short sales are allowed. The objective function to be minimized is the value at risk

  1. Portfolio optimization and performance evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Hans Jørn; Christensen, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Based on an exclusive business-to-business database comprising nearly 1,000 customers, the applicability of portfolio analysis is documented, and it is examined how such an optimization analysis can be used to explore the growth potential of a company. As opposed to any previous analyses, optimal...... customer portfolios are determined, and it is shown how marketing decision-makers can use this information in their marketing strategies to optimize the revenue growth of the company. Finally, our analysis is the first analysis which applies portfolio based methods to measure customer performance......, and it is shown how these performance measures complement the optimization analysis....

  2. Portfolio i Praksis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saltofte, Margit; Krill, Cecilia

    . Præsentationsfolien fokuserer på at præsentere et færdigt produkt eller resultat, mens arbejdsportfolien har fokus på proces, refleksion og læring. Til denne forskel knytter sig desuden helt naturligt en sondring imellem det delte og det private. Hvor præsentationsportfolio per definition er åben og har en modtager i...... sigte, er arbejdsportfolien i udgangspunktet lukket og privat. Det vil sige at man selv udvælger, hvad der skal ses af fx vejleder eller medstuderende – og hvad, der skal forblive privat. Portfolio i Praksis tilbyder desuden en række håndgribelige øvelser, der kan bruges som hjælp til at understøtte det...

  3. Hydrogen patent portfolios in the automotive industry - the search for promising storage methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, S.

    2010-01-01

    In the development of hydrogen vehicle technologies, the automotive industry adopts a portfolio approach; a multitude of technological options is developed for hydrogen storage and conversion. Patent portfolios of car manufacturers are used as indicators of the variation and selection dynamics of

  4. e-Portfolios Enhancing Students' Self-Directed Learning: A Systematic Review of Influencing Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckers, Jorrick; Dolmans, Diana; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen

    2016-01-01

    e-Portfolios have become increasingly popular among educators as learning tools. Some research even shows that e-portfolios can be utilised to facilitate the development of skills for self-directed learning. Such skills include self-assessment of performance, formulation of learning goals, and selection of future tasks. However, it is not yet…

  5. Large Portfolio Risk Management and Optimal Portfolio Allocation with Dynamic Copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Thorsten Lehnert; Xisong Jin

    2011-01-01

    Previous research focuses on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, available dynamic models are not easily applied for high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures like Value at Ris...

  6. A Mean variance analysis of arbitrage portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shuhong

    2007-03-01

    Based on the careful analysis of the definition of arbitrage portfolio and its return, the author presents a mean-variance analysis of the return of arbitrage portfolios, which implies that Korkie and Turtle's results ( B. Korkie, H.J. Turtle, A mean-variance analysis of self-financing portfolios, Manage. Sci. 48 (2002) 427-443) are misleading. A practical example is given to show the difference between the arbitrage portfolio frontier and the usual portfolio frontier.

  7. A Proposed Model for Selecting Measurement Procedures for the Assessment and Treatment of Problem Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBlanc, Linda A; Raetz, Paige B; Sellers, Tyra P; Carr, James E

    2016-03-01

    Practicing behavior analysts frequently assess and treat problem behavior as part of their ongoing job responsibilities. Effective measurement of problem behavior is critical to success in these activities because some measures of problem behavior provide more accurate and complete information about the behavior than others. However, not every measurement procedure is appropriate for every problem behavior and therapeutic circumstance. We summarize the most commonly used measurement procedures, describe the contexts for which they are most appropriate, and propose a clinical decision-making model for selecting measurement produces given certain features of the behavior and constraints of the therapeutic environment.

  8. 78 FR 21045 - Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-09

    ... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 23 RIN 3038-AC96 Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship Documentation Requirements for Swap Dealers... CFTC published final rules setting forth requirements for swap confirmation, portfolio reconciliation...

  9. Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Sun

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to

  10. Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaradaghi, Mohammed

    Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and

  11. Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma, Aida; Leoni-Aubin, Samuela

    2015-01-01

    The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature.

  12. A ubiquitous reflective e-portfolio architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forte, Marcos; de Souza, Wanderley L; da Silva, Roseli F; do Prado, Antonio F; Rodrigues, Jose F

    2013-11-01

    and in group activities, and for the paper-based version while in patient attendance. There is evidence that the environment where the professional practice takes place influences the usage of the e-portfolio. Mobile devices were able to support students in their professional practice; however, these devices present characteristics that must be judiciously selected, otherwise, they may limit the execution of important tasks. The main shortcoming identified during the evaluation tests was about the use of the module, and of the access device, during patient attendance. For this reason, we have envisioned a new version of the Professional Practice Module that shall follow a twofold requisite: by one side, it will include all the features of the module, to be used at the university or in the students' homes; from the other side, it will include only the features that are essential for the practice of patient attendance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Širůček, Martin; Křen, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    ŠIRŮČEK MARTIN, KŘEN LUKÁŠ. 2015. Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(4): 1375–1386. This paper is focused on building investment portfolios by using the Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT). Derivation based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate the weights of individual securities in portfolios. The calculated portfolios include a po...

  14. Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Jappelli, Tullio

    2006-01-01

    Rational investors perceive correctly the value of financial information. Investment in information is therefore rewarded with a higher Sharpe ratio. Overconfident investors overstate the quality of their own information, and thus attain a lower Sharpe ratio. We contrast the implications of the two models using a unique survey of customers of an Italian leading bank with portfolio data and measures of financial information. We find that the portfolio Sharpe ratio is negatively associated with...

  15. Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

    2013-06-01

    We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

  16. DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT TO MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS - PROBLEM OF CONSTRUCTION SITE SELECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikša Jajac

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present Decision Support Concept (DSC for management of construction projects. Focus of our research is in application of multicritera methods (MCM to decision making in planning phase of construction projects (related to the problem of construction sites selection. The problem is identified as a significant one from many different aspects such as economic aspect, civil engineering aspect, etc. what indicates the necessity for evaluation of multiple sites by several different criteria. Therefore, DSC for construction site selection based on PROMETHEE method is designed. In order to define the appropriate criteria, their weights and preference functions for the concept, three groups of stakeholders are involved (investors, construction experts and experts for real estate market in its design. AHP method has been used for determination of criteria weights. The model has been tested on the problem of site selection for construction of residential-commercial building in four largest cities in Croatia.

  17. Ecology of Problem Individuals and the Efficacy of Selective Wildlife Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swan, George J F; Redpath, Steve M; Bearhop, Stuart; McDonald, Robbie A

    2017-07-01

    As a result of ecological and social drivers, the management of problems caused by wildlife is becoming more selective, often targeting specific animals. Narrowing the sights of management relies upon the ecology of certain 'problem individuals' and their disproportionate contribution to impacts upon human interests. We assess the ecological evidence for problem individuals and confirm that some individuals or classes can be both disproportionately responsible and more likely to reoffend. The benefits of management can sometimes be short-lived, and selective management can affect tolerance of wildlife for better or worse, but, when effectively targeted, selective management can bring benefits by mitigating impact and conflict, often in a more socially acceptable way. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY PROMETHEE METHOD FOR SELECTING OPTIMAL CAR PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERKAN BALLI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Most of the economical, industrial, financial or political decision problems are multi-criteria. In these multi criteria problems, optimal selection of alternatives is hard and complex process. Recently, some kinds of methods are improved to solve these problems. Promethee is one of most efficient and easiest method and solves problems that consist quantitative criteria.  However, in daily life, there are criteria which are explained as linguistic and cannot modeled numerical. Hence, Promethee method is incomplete for linguistic criteria which are imprecise. To satisfy this deficiency, fuzzy set approximation can be used. Promethee method, which is extended with using fuzzy inputs, is applied to car selection for seven different cars in same class by using criteria: price, fuel, performance and security. The obtained results are appropriate and consistent.

  19. The M-OLAP Cube Selection Problem: A Hyper-polymorphic Algorithm Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loureiro, Jorge; Belo, Orlando

    OLAP systems depend heavily on the materialization of multidimensional structures to speed-up queries, whose appropriate selection constitutes the cube selection problem. However, the recently proposed distribution of OLAP structures emerges to answer new globalization's requirements, capturing the known advantages of distributed databases. But this hardens the search for solutions, especially due to the inherent heterogeneity, imposing an extra characteristic of the algorithm that must be used: adaptability. Here the emerging concept known as hyper-heuristic can be a solution. In fact, having an algorithm where several (meta-)heuristics may be selected under the control of a heuristic has an intrinsic adaptive behavior. This paper presents a hyper-heuristic polymorphic algorithm used to solve the extended cube selection and allocation problem generated in M-OLAP architectures.

  20. Dynamic supplier selection problem considering full truck load in probabilistic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno, Wicaksono, Purnawan Adi

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in a probabilistic dynamic optimization to solve a dynamic supplier selection problem considering full truck load in probabilistic environment where some parameters are uncertain. We determine the optimal strategy for this problem by using stochastic dynamic programming. We give some numerical experiments to evaluate and analyze the model. From the results, the optimal supplier and the optimal product volume from the optimal supplier were determined for each time period.

  1. A Combined group EA-PROMETHEE method for a supplier selection problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Rezaee Kelidbari

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the important decisions which impacts all firms’ activities is the supplier selection problem. Since the 1950s, several works have addressed this problem by treating different aspects and instances. In this paper, a combined multiple criteria decision making (MCDM technique (EA-PROMETHEE has been applied to implement a proper decision making. To this aim, after reviewing the theoretical background regarding to supplier selection, the extension analysis (EA is used to determine the importance of criteria and PROMETHEE for appraisal of suppliers based on the criteria. An empirical example illustrated the proposed approach.

  2. Noisy covariance matrices and portfolio optimization II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre

    2003-03-01

    Recent studies inspired by results from random matrix theory (Galluccio et al.: Physica A 259 (1998) 449; Laloux et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1467; Risk 12 (3) (1999) 69; Plerou et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1471) found that covariance matrices determined from empirical financial time series appear to contain such a high amount of noise that their structure can essentially be regarded as random. This seems, however, to be in contradiction with the fundamental role played by covariance matrices in finance, which constitute the pillars of modern investment theory and have also gained industry-wide applications in risk management. Our paper is an attempt to resolve this embarrassing paradox. The key observation is that the effect of noise strongly depends on the ratio r= n/ T, where n is the size of the portfolio and T the length of the available time series. On the basis of numerical experiments and analytic results for some toy portfolio models we show that for relatively large values of r (e.g. 0.6) noise does, indeed, have the pronounced effect suggested by Galluccio et al. (1998), Laloux et al. (1999) and Plerou et al. (1999) and illustrated later by Laloux et al. (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 3 (2000) 391), Plerou et al. (Phys. Rev. E, e-print cond-mat/0108023) and Rosenow et al. (Europhys. Lett., e-print cond-mat/0111537) in a portfolio optimization context, while for smaller r (around 0.2 or below), the error due to noise drops to acceptable levels. Since the length of available time series is for obvious reasons limited in any practical application, any bound imposed on the noise-induced error translates into a bound on the size of the portfolio. In a related set of experiments we find that the effect of noise depends also on whether the problem arises in asset allocation or in a risk measurement context: if covariance matrices are used simply for measuring the risk of portfolios with a fixed composition rather than as inputs to optimization, the

  3. Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

    2000-05-01

    Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

  4. Contract portfolio optimization for a gasoline supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shanshan

    Major oil companies sell gasoline through three channels of trade: branded (associated with long-term contracts), unbranded (associated with short-term contracts), and spot market. The branded channel provides them with a long-term secured and sustainable demand source, but requires an inflexible long-term commitment with demand and price risks. The unbranded channel provides a medium level of allocation flexibility. The spot market provides them with the greatest allocation flexibility to the changing market conditions, but the spot market's illiquidity mitigates this benefit. In order to sell the product in a profitable and sustainable way, they need an optimal contract portfolio. This dissertation addresses the contract portfolio optimization problem from different perspectives (retrospective view and forward-looking view) at different levels (strategic level, tactical level and operational level). The objective of the retrospective operational model is to develop a financial case to estimate the business value of having a dynamic optimization model and quantify the opportunity values missed in the past. This model proves the financial significance of the problem and provides top management valuable insights into the business. BP has applied the insights and principles gained from this work and implemented the model to the entire Midwest gasoline supply chain to retrospectively review optimization opportunities. The strategic model is the most parsimonious model that captures the essential economic tradeoffs among different contract types, to demonstrate the need for a contract portfolio and what drives the portfolio. We examine the properties of the optimal contract portfolio and provide a comparative statics analysis by changing the model parameters. As the strategic model encapsulates the business problem at the macroscopic level, the tactical model resolves lower level issues. It considers the time dynamics, the information flow and contracting flow. Using

  5. A modified genetic algorithm with fuzzy roulette wheel selection for job-shop scheduling problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thammano, Arit; Teekeng, Wannaporn

    2015-05-01

    The job-shop scheduling problem is one of the most difficult production planning problems. Since it is in the NP-hard class, a recent trend in solving the job-shop scheduling problem is shifting towards the use of heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms. This paper proposes a novel metaheuristic algorithm, which is a modification of the genetic algorithm. This proposed algorithm introduces two new concepts to the standard genetic algorithm: (1) fuzzy roulette wheel selection and (2) the mutation operation with tabu list. The proposed algorithm has been evaluated and compared with several state-of-the-art algorithms in the literature. The experimental results on 53 JSSPs show that the proposed algorithm is very effective in solving the combinatorial optimization problems. It outperforms all state-of-the-art algorithms on all benchmark problems in terms of the ability to achieve the optimal solution and the computational time.

  6. Portfolio optimization with short-selling and spin-glass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schianchi, A.; Bongini, L.; Degli Esposti, M.; Giardinà, C.

    2002-01-01

    n this paper, we solve a general problem of optimizing a portfolio in a futures markets framework, extending the previous work of Galluccio et al. [Physica A 259, 449 (1998)]. We allow for long buying/short selling of a relatively large number of assets, assuming a fixed level of margin requirement.

  7. Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational

  8. Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

    2010-01-01

    Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return

  9. Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Engler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.

  10. Portfolio Management with Stochastic Interest Rates and Inflation Ambiguity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Claus; Rubtsov, Alexey Vladimirovich

    We solve a stock-bond-cash portfolio choice problem for a risk- and ambiguity-averse investor in a setting where the inflation rate and interest rates are stochastic. The expected inflation rate is unobservable, but the investor may learn about it from realized inflation and observed stock and bond......-Jacobi-Bellman equation in closed form and derive and illustrate a number of interesting properties of the solution. For example, ambiguity aversion affects the optimal portfolio through the correlation of price level with the stock index, a bond, and the expected inflation rate. Furthermore, unlike other settings...

  11. Discrete Time McKean–Vlasov Control Problem: A Dynamic Programming Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Huyên, E-mail: pham@math.univ-paris-diderot.fr; Wei, Xiaoli, E-mail: tyswxl@gmail.com [Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires, CNRS, UMR 7599, Université Paris Diderot (France)

    2016-12-15

    We consider the stochastic optimal control problem of nonlinear mean-field systems in discrete time. We reformulate the problem into a deterministic control problem with marginal distribution as controlled state variable, and prove that dynamic programming principle holds in its general form. We apply our method for solving explicitly the mean-variance portfolio selection and the multivariate linear-quadratic McKean–Vlasov control problem.

  12. Discrete Time McKean–Vlasov Control Problem: A Dynamic Programming Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Huyên; Wei, Xiaoli

    2016-01-01

    We consider the stochastic optimal control problem of nonlinear mean-field systems in discrete time. We reformulate the problem into a deterministic control problem with marginal distribution as controlled state variable, and prove that dynamic programming principle holds in its general form. We apply our method for solving explicitly the mean-variance portfolio selection and the multivariate linear-quadratic McKean–Vlasov control problem.

  13. An Efficient Cost-Sensitive Feature Selection Using Chaos Genetic Algorithm for Class Imbalance Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Bian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the era of big data, feature selection is an essential process in machine learning. Although the class imbalance problem has recently attracted a great deal of attention, little effort has been undertaken to develop feature selection techniques. In addition, most applications involving feature selection focus on classification accuracy but not cost, although costs are important. To cope with imbalance problems, we developed a cost-sensitive feature selection algorithm that adds the cost-based evaluation function of a filter feature selection using a chaos genetic algorithm, referred to as CSFSG. The evaluation function considers both feature-acquiring costs (test costs and misclassification costs in the field of network security, thereby weakening the influence of many instances from the majority of classes in large-scale datasets. The CSFSG algorithm reduces the total cost of feature selection and trades off both factors. The behavior of the CSFSG algorithm is tested on a large-scale dataset of network security, using two kinds of classifiers: C4.5 and k-nearest neighbor (KNN. The results of the experimental research show that the approach is efficient and able to effectively improve classification accuracy and to decrease classification time. In addition, the results of our method are more promising than the results of other cost-sensitive feature selection algorithms.

  14. Selection and Penalty Strategies for Genetic Algorithms Designed to Solve Spatial Forest Planning Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, M.P.; Sessions, J.; Hamann, J.D.

    2009-01-01

    Genetic algorithms (GAs) have demonstrated success in solving spatial forest planning problems. We present an adaptive GA that incorporates population-level statistics to dynamically update penalty functions, a process analogous to strategic oscillation from the tabu search literature. We also explore performance of various selection strategies. The GA identified feasible solutions within 96%, 98%, and 93% of a non spatial relaxed upper bound calculated for landscapes of 100, 500, and 1000 units, respectively. The problem solved includes forest structure constraints limiting harvest opening sizes and requiring minimally sized patches of mature forest. Results suggest that the dynamic penalty strategy is superior to the more standard static penalty implementation. Results also suggest that tournament selection can be superior to the more standard implementation of proportional selection for smaller problems, but becomes susceptible to premature convergence as problem size increases. It is therefore important to balance selection pressure with appropriate disruption. We conclude that integrating intelligent search strategies into the context of genetic algorithms can yield improvements and should be investigated for future use in spatial planning with ecological goals.

  15. Examination of a Social Problem-Solving Intervention to Treat Selective Mutism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Reilly, M.F.; McNally, D.; Sigafoos, J.; Lancioni, G.E.; Green, V.A.; Edrisinha, C.; Machalicek, W.A.; Sorrells, A.; Didden, H.C.M.

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined the use of a social problem-solving intervention to treat selective mutism with 2 sisters in an elementary school setting. Both girls were taught to answer teacher questions in front of their classroom peers during regular classroom instruction. Each girl received individualized

  16. Examination of a Social Problem-Solving Intervention to Treat Selective Mutism

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Mark; McNally, Deirdre; Sigafoos, Jeff; Lancioni, Giulio E.; Green, Vanessa; Edrisinha, Chaturi; Machalicek, Wendy; Sorrells, Audrey; Lang, Russell; Didden, Robert

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined the use of a social problem-solving intervention to treat selective mutism with 2 sisters in an elementary school setting. Both girls were taught to answer teacher questions in front of their classroom peers during regular classroom instruction. Each girl received individualized instruction from a therapist and was taught to…

  17. Population SAMC vs SAMC: Convergence and Applications to Gene Selection Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Faming Liang, Mingqi Wu

    2013-01-01

    The Bayesian model selection approach has been adopted by more and more people when analyzing a large data. However, it is known that the reversible jump MCMC (RJMCMC) algorithm, which is perhaps the most popular MCMC algorithm for Bayesian model selection, is prone to get trapped into local modes when the model space is complex. The stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm essentially overcomes the local trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC algorithms by introducing a self-adjusting mechanism based on the past samples. In this paper, we propose a population SAMC (Pop-SAMC) algorithm, which works on a population of SAMC chains and can make use of crossover operators from genetic algorithms to further improve its efficiency. Under mild conditions, we show the convergence of this algorithm. Comparing to the single chain SAMC algorithm, Pop-SAMC provides a more efficient self-adjusting mechanism and thus can converge faster. The effectiveness of Pop-SAMC for Bayesian model selection problems is examined through a change-point identification problem and a gene selection problem. The numerical results indicate that Pop-SAMC significantly outperforms both the single chain SAMC and RJMCMC.

  18. Listening Diary in the Digital Age: Students' Material Selection, Listening Problems, and Perceived Usefulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheryl Wei-yu

    2016-01-01

    The current study reports on a group of Taiwanese college students' first-person diary accounts of their private, transactional listening activities outside the classroom. Issues related to students' material selection, listening problems, and perceived usefulness of keeping a listening diary were explored. It was found that most students chose…

  19. Metacognition for strategy selection during arithmetic problem-solving in young and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geurten, Marie; Lemaire, Patrick

    2018-04-19

    We examined participants' strategy choices and metacognitive judgments during arithmetic problem-solving. Metacognitive judgments were collected either prospectively or retrospectively. We tested whether metacognitive judgments are related to strategy choices on the current problems and on the immediately following problems, and age-related differences in relations between metacognition and strategy choices. Data showed that both young and older adults were able to make accurate retrospective, but not prospective, judgments. Moreover, the accuracy of retrospective judgments was comparable in young and older adults when participants had to select and execute the better strategy. Metacognitive accuracy was even higher in older adults when participants had to only select the better strategy. Finally, low-confidence judgments on current items were more frequently followed by better strategy selection on immediately succeeding items than high-confidence judgments in both young and older adults. Implications of these findings to further our understanding of age-related differences and similarities in adults' metacognitive monitoring and metacognitive regulation for strategy selection in the context of arithmetic problem solving are discussed.

  20. Optimal Portfolio Strategy under Rolling Economic Maximum Drawdown Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojian Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of optimal portfolio strategy under the constraints of rolling economic maximum drawdown. A more practical strategy is developed by using rolling Sharpe ratio in computing the allocation proportion in contrast to existing models. Besides, another novel strategy named “REDP strategy” is further proposed, which replaces the rolling economic drawdown of the portfolio with the rolling economic drawdown of the risky asset. The simulation tests prove that REDP strategy can ensure the portfolio to satisfy the drawdown constraint and outperforms other strategies significantly. An empirical comparison research on the performances of different strategies is carried out by using the 23-year monthly data of SPTR, DJUBS, and 3-month T-bill. The investment cases of single risky asset and two risky assets are both studied in this paper. Empirical results indicate that the REDP strategy successfully controls the maximum drawdown within the given limit and performs best in both return and risk.