Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.
Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki
2015-01-01
The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.
Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Takashi Shinzato
Full Text Available The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.
Issagali, Aizhan; Alshimbayeva, Damira; Zhalgas, Aidana
2015-01-01
In this paper Portfolio Optimization techniques were used to determine the most favorable investment portfolio. In particular, stock indices of three companies, namely Microsoft Corporation, Christian Dior Fashion House and Shevron Corporation were evaluated. Using this data the amounts invested in each asset when a portfolio is chosen on the efficient frontier were calculated. In addition, the Portfolio with minimum variance, tangency portfolio and optimal Markowitz portfolio are presented.
A Risk-Sensitive Portfolio Optimization Problem with Fixed Incomes Securities
Goel, Mayank; Kumar, K. Suresh
2007-01-01
We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.
Random Matrix Approach for Primal-Dual Portfolio Optimization Problems
Tada, Daichi; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Shinzato, Takashi
2017-12-01
In this paper, we revisit the portfolio optimization problems of the minimization/maximization of investment risk under constraints of budget and investment concentration (primal problem) and the maximization/minimization of investment concentration under constraints of budget and investment risk (dual problem) for the case that the variances of the return rates of the assets are identical. We analyze both optimization problems by the Lagrange multiplier method and the random matrix approach. Thereafter, we compare the results obtained from our proposed approach with the results obtained in previous work. Moreover, we use numerical experiments to validate the results obtained from the replica approach and the random matrix approach as methods for analyzing both the primal and dual portfolio optimization problems.
Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems
van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.
2010-01-01
In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or a savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations.
Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems
van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.
2009-01-01
In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations. The
Artificial bee colony algorithm for constrained possibilistic portfolio optimization problem
Chen, Wei
2015-07-01
In this paper, we discuss the portfolio optimization problem with real-world constraints under the assumption that the returns of risky assets are fuzzy numbers. A new possibilistic mean-semiabsolute deviation model is proposed, in which transaction costs, cardinality and quantity constraints are considered. Due to such constraints the proposed model becomes a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem and traditional optimization methods fail to find the optimal solution efficiently. Thus, a modified artificial bee colony (MABC) algorithm is developed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and the corresponding algorithm.
Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem.
Shinzato, Takashi
2016-11-01
In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Replica analysis for the duality of the portfolio optimization problem
Shinzato, Takashi
2016-11-01
In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we analyzed in a previous study, we herein consider a primal-dual problem in which the investment risk minimization problem with budget and expected return constraints is regarded as the primal problem, and the expected return maximization problem with budget and investment risk constraints is regarded as the dual problem. With respect to these optimal problems, we analyze a quenched disordered system involving both of these optimization problems using the approach developed in statistical mechanical informatics and confirm that both optimal portfolios can possess the primal-dual structure. Finally, the results of numerical simulations are shown to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Optimal consumption—portfolio problem with CVaR constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Qingye; Gao, Yan
2016-01-01
The optimal portfolio selection is a fundamental issue in finance, and its two most important ingredients are risk and return. Merton's pioneering work in dynamic portfolio selection emphasized only the expected utility of the consumption and the terminal wealth. To make the optimal portfolio strategy be achievable, risk control over bankruptcy during the investment horizon is an indispensable ingredient. So, in this paper, we consider the consumption-portfolio problem coupled with a dynamic risk control. More specifically, different from the existing literature, we impose a dynamic relative CVaR constraint on it. By the stochastic dynamic programming techniques, we derive the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. Moreover, by the Lagrange multiplier method, the closed form solution is provided when the utility function is a logarithmic one. At last, an illustrative empirical study is given. The results show the distinct difference of the portfolio strategies with and without the CVaR constraints: the proportion invested in the risky assets is reduced over time with CVaR constraint instead of being constant without CVaR constraints. This can provide a good decision-making reference for the investors.
Portfolio optimization and the random magnet problem
Rosenow, B.; Plerou, V.; Gopikrishnan, P.; Stanley, H. E.
2002-08-01
Diversification of an investment into independently fluctuating assets reduces its risk. In reality, movements of assets are mutually correlated and therefore knowledge of cross-correlations among asset price movements are of great importance. Our results support the possibility that the problem of finding an investment in stocks which exposes invested funds to a minimum level of risk is analogous to the problem of finding the magnetization of a random magnet. The interactions for this "random magnet problem" are given by the cross-correlation matrix C of stock returns. We find that random matrix theory allows us to make an estimate for C which outperforms the standard estimate in terms of constructing an investment which carries a minimum level of risk.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Khoo, Wai
1999-01-01
.... These problems model stochastic portfolio optimization problems (SPOPs) which assume deterministic unit weight, and normally distributed unit return with known mean and variance for each item type...
Macroscopic relationship in primal-dual portfolio optimization problem
Shinzato, Takashi
2018-02-01
In the present paper, using a replica analysis, we examine the portfolio optimization problem handled in previous work and discuss the minimization of investment risk under constraints of budget and expected return for the case that the distribution of the hyperparameters of the mean and variance of the return rate of each asset are not limited to a specific probability family. Findings derived using our proposed method are compared with those in previous work to verify the effectiveness of our proposed method. Further, we derive a Pythagorean theorem of the Sharpe ratio and macroscopic relations of opportunity loss. Using numerical experiments, the effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated for a specific situation.
On the Equivalence of Quadratic Optimization Problems Commonly Used in Portfolio Theory
Taras Bodnar; Nestor Parolya; Wolfgang Schmid
2012-01-01
In the paper, we consider three quadratic optimization problems which are frequently applied in portfolio theory, i.e, the Markowitz mean-variance problem as well as the problems based on the mean-variance utility function and the quadratic utility.Conditions are derived under which the solutions of these three optimization procedures coincide and are lying on the efficient frontier, the set of mean-variance optimal portfolios. It is shown that the solutions of the Markowitz optimization prob...
Shinzato, Takashi
2016-12-01
The portfolio optimization problem in which the variances of the return rates of assets are not identical is analyzed in this paper using the methodology of statistical mechanical informatics, specifically, replica analysis. We defined two characteristic quantities of an optimal portfolio, namely, minimal investment risk and investment concentration, in order to solve the portfolio optimization problem and analytically determined their asymptotical behaviors using replica analysis. Numerical experiments were also performed, and a comparison between the results of our simulation and those obtained via replica analysis validated our proposed method.
Shinzato, Takashi
2017-02-01
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is intuitive that the minimal investment risk for the problem with an investment concentration constraint can be larger than that without the constraint (that is, with only the budget constraint). Moreover, a numerical experiment shows the effectiveness of our proposed analysis. In contrast, the standard operations research approach failed to identify accurately the minimal investment risk of the portfolio optimization problem.
2014-01-01
Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results. PMID:24991645
Bacanin, Nebojsa; Tuba, Milan
2014-01-01
Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.
Robust and Reliable Portfolio Optimization Formulation of a Chance Constrained Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sengupta Raghu Nandan
2017-02-01
Full Text Available We solve a linear chance constrained portfolio optimization problem using Robust Optimization (RO method wherein financial script/asset loss return distributions are considered as extreme valued. The objective function is a convex combination of portfolio’s CVaR and expected value of loss return, subject to a set of randomly perturbed chance constraints with specified probability values. The robust deterministic counterpart of the model takes the form of Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP problem. Results from extensive simulation runs show the efficacy of our proposed models, as it helps the investor to (i utilize extensive simulation studies to draw insights into the effect of randomness in portfolio decision making process, (ii incorporate different risk appetite scenarios to find the optimal solutions for the financial portfolio allocation problem and (iii compare the risk and return profiles of the investments made in both deterministic as well as in uncertain and highly volatile financial markets.
van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.
2011-01-01
In this paper we discuss multiperiod portfolio selection problems related to a specific provisioning problem. Our results are an extension of Dhaene et al. (2005) [14], where optimal constant mix investment strategies are obtained in a provisioning and savings context, using an analytical approach
Fuzzy Random λ-Mean SAD Portfolio Selection Problem: An Ant Colony Optimization Approach
Thakur, Gour Sundar Mitra; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Mitra, Swapan Kumar
2010-10-01
To reach the investment goal, one has to select a combination of securities among different portfolios containing large number of securities. Only the past records of each security do not guarantee the future return. As there are many uncertain factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market and there are also some newer stock markets which do not have enough historical data, experts' expectation and experience must be combined with the past records to generate an effective portfolio selection model. In this paper the return of security is assumed to be Fuzzy Random Variable Set (FRVS), where returns are set of random numbers which are in turn fuzzy numbers. A new λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) portfolio selection model is developed. The subjective opinions of the investors to the rate of returns of each security are taken into consideration by introducing a pessimistic-optimistic parameter vector λ. λ-Mean Semi Absolute Deviation (λ-MSAD) model is preferred as it follows absolute deviation of the rate of returns of a portfolio instead of the variance as the measure of the risk. As this model can be reduced to Linear Programming Problem (LPP) it can be solved much faster than quadratic programming problems. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is used for solving the portfolio selection problem. ACO is a paradigm for designing meta-heuristic algorithms for combinatorial optimization problem. Data from BSE is used for illustration.
A Generalized Measure for the Optimal Portfolio Selection Problem and its Explicit Solution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zinoviy Landsman
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we offer a novel class of utility functions applied to optimal portfolio selection. This class incorporates as special cases important measures such as the mean-variance, Sharpe ratio, mean-standard deviation and others. We provide an explicit solution to the problem of optimal portfolio selection based on this class. Furthermore, we show that each measure in this class generally reduces to the efficient frontier that coincides or belongs to the classical mean-variance efficient frontier. In addition, a condition is provided for the existence of the a one-to-one correspondence between the parameter of this class of utility functions and the trade-off parameter λ in the mean-variance utility function. This correspondence essentially provides insight into the choice of this parameter. We illustrate our results by taking a portfolio of stocks from National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ.
Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization
Vincenzo Tola; Fabrizio Lillo; Mauro Gallegati; Rosario N. Mantegna
2005-01-01
We consider the problem of the statistical uncertainty of the correlation matrix in the optimization of a financial portfolio. We show that the use of clustering algorithms can improve the reliability of the portfolio in terms of the ratio between predicted and realized risk. Bootstrap analysis indicates that this improvement is obtained in a wide range of the parameters N (number of assets) and T (investment horizon). The predicted and realized risk level and the relative portfolio compositi...
Regularizing portfolio optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre
2010-01-01
The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.
Regularizing portfolio optimization
Still, Susanne; Kondor, Imre
2010-07-01
The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability due to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the instability is intimately related to over-fitting, which can be avoided using known regularization methods. We show how regularized portfolio optimization with the expected shortfall as a risk measure is related to support vector regression. The budget constraint dictates a modification. We present the resulting optimization problem and discuss the solution. The L2 norm of the weight vector is used as a regularizer, which corresponds to a diversification 'pressure'. This means that diversification, besides counteracting downward fluctuations in some assets by upward fluctuations in others, is also crucial because it improves the stability of the solution. The approach we provide here allows for the simultaneous treatment of optimization and diversification in one framework that enables the investor to trade off between the two, depending on the size of the available dataset.
Portfolio optimization retail investor
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. А. Kiseleva
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The article notes that the task of the investor's risk management is to, on the one hand, as much as possible to strive to achieve the criterion of risk level, and on the other hand, in any case not exceed it. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of the optimal ratio of "risk-income" becomes now of particular relevance. This article discusses the different distribution areas of the private investor in order to obtain the maximum profit. The analysis showed us the overall economic and political system of the country, as well as the legislative provision of guarantees to the investor. To obtain sufficient income and reduce losses it is important to maintain the optimum value found between the amount of the investor's risk and capital transactions. Model of optimal placement of funds led to the conclusion about inexpediency strong increase in the diversification of the investment portfolio (more than 10 different types of assets in the portfolio, since it increases the complexity of its practical form, while the portfolio characteristics are improved significantly. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The analysis shows that there is no single best asset portfolio. It is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. Possible combination of the "riskincome" will depend on the objective function. Most diversified and bringing the best return per unit of risk, is a portfolio that contains the most risky assets.
HEURISTIC APPROACHES FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION
Manfred Gilli, Evis Kellezi
2000-01-01
The paper first compares the use of optimization heuristics to the classical optimization techniques for the selection of optimal portfolios. Second, the heuristic approach is applied to problems other than those in the standard mean-variance framework where the classical optimization fails.
Li, Zejing
2012-01-01
This dissertation is mainly devoted to the research of two problems - the continuous-time portfolio optimization in different Wishart models and the effects of discrete rebalancing on portfolio wealth distribution and optimal portfolio strategy.
Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor
Juarna, A.
2017-03-01
Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.
Risk modelling in portfolio optimization
Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi
2013-09-01
Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.
Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization
Koijen, R.S.J.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.
2006-01-01
We study the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem over an individual's life-cycle taking into account annuity risk at retirement. Optimally, the investor allocates wealth at retirement to nominal, inflation-linked, and variable annuities and conditions this choice on the state of the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nebojsa Bacanin
2014-01-01
portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.
Ansari, Fazel; Seidenberg, Ulrich
2016-01-01
This paper discusses the complementarity of human and cyber physical production systems (CPPS). The discourse of complementarity is elaborated by defining five criteria for comparing the characteristics of human and CPPS. Finally, a management portfolio matrix is proposed for examining the feasibility of optimal collaboration between them. The…
Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Mrinal K.; Goswami, Anindya; Kumar, Suresh K.
2009-01-01
We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem
Feature selection for portfolio optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjerring, Thomas Trier; Ross, Omri; Weissensteiner, Alex
2016-01-01
Most portfolio selection rules based on the sample mean and covariance matrix perform poorly out-of-sample. Moreover, there is a growing body of evidence that such optimization rules are not able to beat simple rules of thumb, such as 1/N. Parameter uncertainty has been identified as one major....... While most of the diversification benefits are preserved, the parameter estimation problem is alleviated. We conduct out-of-sample back-tests to show that in most cases different well-established portfolio selection rules applied on the reduced asset universe are able to improve alpha relative...
Portfolio optimization in electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.
2007-01-01
In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)
On application of vector optimization in the problem of formation of portfolio of counterparties
Gorbich, A. L.; Medvedeva, M. A.; Medvedev, M. A.
2016-12-01
For the effective functioning of any enterprise it is necessary to choose the right partners: suppliers of raw material, buyers of finished products, with which the company interacts in the course of their business. However, the presence on the market of big amounts of enterprises makes the choice the most appropriate among them very difficult and requires the ability to objectively assess of the possible partners, based on multilateral analysis of their activities. This analysis can be carried out based on the solution of multiobjective problems of mathematical programming by using the methods of vector optimization. The work considers existing methods of selection of counterparties, as well as the theoretical foundations for the proposed methodology. It also describes a computer program that analyzes the raw data for contractors and allows choosing the best portfolio of suppliers of enterprise. The feature of selection of counterparties is that today's market has a large number of enterprises in similar activities. Successful choice of contractor will help to avoid unpleasant situations and financial losses, as well as to find a reliable partner in his person for the implementation of the production strategy of the company.
Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Stefanovits
2014-08-01
Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.
Portfolio Optimization and Mortgage Choice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maj-Britt Nordfang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the optimal mortgage choice of an investor in a simple bond market with a stochastic interest rate and access to term life insurance. The study is based on advances in stochastic control theory, which provides analytical solutions to portfolio problems with a stochastic interest rate. We derive the optimal portfolio of a mortgagor in a simple framework and formulate stylized versions of mortgage products offered in the market today. This allows us to analyze the optimal investment strategy in terms of optimal mortgage choice. We conclude that certain extreme investors optimally choose either a traditional fixed rate mortgage or an adjustable rate mortgage, while investors with moderate risk aversion and income prefer a mix of the two. By matching specific investor characteristics to existing mortgage products, our study provides a better understanding of the complex and yet restricted mortgage choice faced by many household investors. In addition, the simple analytical framework enables a detailed analysis of how changes to market, income and preference parameters affect the optimal mortgage choice.
Portfolio optimization and performance evaluation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Hans Jørn; Christensen, Michael
2013-01-01
Based on an exclusive business-to-business database comprising nearly 1,000 customers, the applicability of portfolio analysis is documented, and it is examined how such an optimization analysis can be used to explore the growth potential of a company. As opposed to any previous analyses, optimal...... customer portfolios are determined, and it is shown how marketing decision-makers can use this information in their marketing strategies to optimize the revenue growth of the company. Finally, our analysis is the first analysis which applies portfolio based methods to measure customer performance......, and it is shown how these performance measures complement the optimization analysis....
Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?
Fryd, Lukas
2017-07-01
The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.
Portfolio optimization using fuzzy linear programming
Pandit, Purnima K.
2013-09-01
Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a problem in Finance, in which investor tries to maximize return and minimize risk by carefully choosing different assets. Expected return and risk are the most important parameters with regard to optimal portfolios. In the simple form PO can be modeled as quadratic programming problem which can be put into equivalent linear form. PO problems with the fuzzy parameters can be solved as multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem. In this paper we give the solution to such problems with an illustrative example.
Asset Allocation and Optimal Contract for Delegated Portfolio Management
Liu, Jingjun; Liang, Jianfeng
This article studies the portfolio selection and the contracting problems between an individual investor and a professional portfolio manager in a discrete-time principal-agent framework. Portfolio selection and optimal contracts are obtained in closed form. The optimal contract was composed with the fixed fee, the cost, and the fraction of excess expected return. The optimal portfolio is similar to the classical two-fund separation theorem.
Optimal diversification of the securities portfolio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Валентина Михайловна Андриенко
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in B/S-market modelThe article deals with problems of the theory and methods of forming the optimal portfolio of financial markets. The analytical review of methods in their historical development is given. Recommendations on the use of a particular method depends on the specific conditions are formulated. The classical and alternative methods are considered. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the investment portfolio of derivative securities in -market model
Robust Portfolio Optimization using CAPM Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
mohsen gharakhani
2013-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a new robust model of multi-period portfolio problem has been developed. One of the key concerns in any asset allocation problem is how to cope with uncertainty about future returns. There are some approaches in the literature for this purpose including stochastic programming and robust optimization. Applying these techniques to multi-period portfolio problem may increase the problem size in a way that the resulting model is intractable. In this paper, a novel approach has been proposed to formulate multi-period portfolio problem as an uncertain linear program assuming that asset return follows the single-index factor model. Robust optimization technique has been also used to solve the problem. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, a numerical example has been applied using simulated data.
Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances.
Toma, Aida; Leoni-Aubin, Samuela
2015-01-01
The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature.
Aircraft technology portfolio optimization using ant colony optimization
Villeneuve, Frederic J.; Mavris, Dimitri N.
2012-11-01
Technology portfolio selection is a combinatorial optimization problem often faced with a large number of combinations and technology incompatibilities. The main research question addressed in this article is to determine if Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is better suited than Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing (SA) for technology portfolio optimization when incompatibility constraints between technologies are present. Convergence rate, capability to find optima, and efficiency in handling of incompatibilities are the three criteria of comparison. The application problem consists of finding the best technology portfolio from 29 aircraft technologies. The results show that ACO and GAs converge faster and find optima more easily than SA, and that ACO can optimize portfolios with technology incompatibilities without using penalty functions. This latter finding paves the way for more use of ACO when the number of constraints increases, such as in the technology and concept selection for complex engineering systems.
Enhanced index tracking modelling in portfolio optimization
Lam, W. S.; Hj. Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun bin
2013-09-01
Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of passive fund management in stock market. It is a dual-objective optimization problem, a trade-off between maximizing the mean return and minimizing the risk. Enhanced index tracking aims to generate excess return over the return achieved by the index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index by establishing an optimal portfolio. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal portfolio composition and performance by using weighted model in enhanced index tracking. Weighted model focuses on the trade-off between the excess return and the risk. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio for the weighted model is able to outperform the Malaysia market index which is Kuala Lumpur Composite Index because of higher mean return and lower risk without purchasing all the stocks in the market index.
A Class of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation Problems with a Linear Decreasing Impact
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiangming Ma
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A problem of an optimal liquidation is investigated by using the Almgren-Chriss market impact model on the background that the n agents liquidate assets completely. The impact of market is divided into three components: unaffected price process, permanent impact, and temporary impact. The key element is that the variable temporary market impact is analyzed. When the temporary market impact is decreasing linearly, the optimal problem is described by a Nash equilibrium in finite time horizon. The stochastic component of the price process is eliminated from the mean-variance. Mathematically, the Nash equilibrium is considered as the second-order linear differential equation with variable coefficients. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the differential equation with two boundaries and find the closed-form solutions in special situations. The numerical examples and properties of the solution are given. The corresponding finance phenomenon is interpreted.
Portfolio Optimization Using Particle Swarms with Stripes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mario Villalobos Arias
2011-04-01
Full Text Available In this paper it is consider the Portfolio Optimization Problem developed by Markowitz [11]. The basic assumption is that the investor tries to maximize his/her profit and at the same time, wants to minimize the risk. This problem is usually solved using a scalarization approach (with one objective. Here it is solved it as a bi-objective optimization problem. It uses a new version of the algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization for Multi-Objective Problems to which it implemented a method of the stripes to improve dispersion.
Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances
2015-01-01
The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature. PMID:26468948
Portfolio optimization with mean-variance model
Hoe, Lam Weng; Siew, Lam Weng
2016-06-01
Investors wish to achieve the target rate of return at the minimum level of risk in their investment. Portfolio optimization is an investment strategy that can be used to minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the target rate of return. The mean-variance model has been proposed in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model is an optimization model that aims to minimize the portfolio risk which is the portfolio variance. The objective of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using the mean-variance model. The data of this study consists of weekly returns of 20 component stocks of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI). The results of this study show that the portfolio composition of the stocks is different. Moreover, investors can get the return at minimum level of risk with the constructed optimal mean-variance portfolio.
Large deviations and portfolio optimization
Sornette, Didier
Risk control and optimal diversification constitute a major focus in the finance and insurance industries as well as, more or less consciously, in our everyday life. We present a discussion of the characterization of risks and of the optimization of portfolios that starts from a simple illustrative model and ends by a general functional integral formulation. A major item is that risk, usually thought of as one-dimensional in the conventional mean-variance approach, has to be addressed by the full distribution of losses. Furthermore, the time-horizon of the investment is shown to play a major role. We show the importance of accounting for large fluctuations and use the theory of Cramér for large deviations in this context. We first treat a simple model with a single risky asset that exemplifies the distinction between the average return and the typical return and the role of large deviations in multiplicative processes, and the different optimal strategies for the investors depending on their size. We then analyze the case of assets whose price variations are distributed according to exponential laws, a situation that is found to describe daily price variations reasonably well. Several portfolio optimization strategies are presented that aim at controlling large risks. We end by extending the standard mean-variance portfolio optimization theory, first within the quasi-Gaussian approximation and then using a general formulation for non-Gaussian correlated assets in terms of the formalism of functional integrals developed in the field theory of critical phenomena.
Geometrical framework for robust portfolio optimization
Bazovkin, Pavel
2014-01-01
We consider a vector-valued multivariate risk measure that depends on the user's profile given by the user's utility. It is constructed on the basis of weighted-mean trimmed regions and represents the solution of an optimization problem. The key feature of this measure is convexity. We apply the measure to the portfolio selection problem, employing different measures of performance as objective functions in a common geometrical framework.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Branda, Martin; Bucher, M.; Červinka, Michal; Schwartz, A.
2018-01-01
Roč. 70, č. 2 (2018), s. 503-530 ISSN 0926-6003 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-00735S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Cardinality constraints * Regularization method * Scholtes regularization * Strong stationarity * Sparse portfolio optimization * Robust portfolio optimization Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.520, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/MTR/branda-0489264.pdf
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION ON CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sinisa Bogdan
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Purpose of this paper was to research portfolio optimization problem on Croatian capital market using Markowitz theory. Research systematically investigated the selection of securities, and defined the importance of using fundamental analysis when selecting the best combination of securities. Since fundamental analysis involves a large number of indicators, this paper selected key indicators that enable a complete and quick securities review on the market. This paper clarifies diversification effect and influence of the correlation coefficient on diversification. Two basic types of assets (stocks and cash funds have been chosen to build the optimal portfolio. Cash funds were selected because they represent a form of risk-free investment, while stocks were chosen because of the high level of return which they achieve. At the end of paper, optimal portfolio was calculated with an excellent yield of 1.82% and deviation of 5.77% on a monthly basis which corresponds to the minimum deviation of the selected stocks. Calculated optimal portfolio achieves better expected value than investing in stock index CROBEX, which for the same period achieves the expected result of -0.02%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zongyuan Huang
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We present the model of corporate optimal investment with consideration of the influence of inflation and the difference between the market opening and market closure. In our model, the investor has three market activities of his or her choice: investment in project A, investment in project B, and consumption. The optimal strategy for the investor is obtained using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is derived using the dynamic programming principle. Further along, a specific case, the Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion case, is discussed in detail, where the explicit optimal strategy can be obtained using a very simple and direct method. At the very end, we present some simulation results along with a brief analysis of the relationship between the optimal strategy and other factors.
Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andrecut, M., E-mail: mircea.andrecut@gmail.com
2014-01-17
We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.
Spin glasses and nonlinear constraints in portfolio optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andrecut, M.
2014-01-01
We discuss the portfolio optimization problem with the obligatory deposits constraint. Recently it has been shown that as a consequence of this nonlinear constraint, the solution consists of an exponentially large number of optimal portfolios, completely different from each other, and extremely sensitive to any changes in the input parameters of the problem, making the concept of rational decision making questionable. Here we reformulate the problem using a quadratic obligatory deposits constraint, and we show that from the physics point of view, finding an optimal portfolio amounts to calculating the mean-field magnetizations of a random Ising model with the constraint of a constant magnetization norm. We show that the model reduces to an eigenproblem, with 2N solutions, where N is the number of assets defining the portfolio. Also, in order to illustrate our results, we present a detailed numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks traded on the Nasdaq Market.
A NAÏVE APPROACH TO SPEED UP PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM USING A MULTIOBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baixauli-Soler, J. Samuel
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Genetic algorithms (GAs are appropriate when investors have the objective of obtaining mean‑variance (VaR efficient frontier as minimising VaR leads to non‑convex and non‑differential risk‑return optimisation problems. However GAs are a time‑consuming optimisation technique. In this paper, we propose to use a naïve approach consisting of using samples split by quartile of risk to obtain complete efficient frontiers in a reasonable computation time. Our results show that using reduced problems which only consider a quartile of the assets allow us to explore the efficient frontier for a large range of risk values. In particular, the third quartile allows us to obtain efficient frontiers from the 1.8% to 2.5% level of VaR quickly, while that of the first quartile of assets is from 1% to 1.3% level of VaR.
Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach
Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli
2013-04-01
Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.
Correlation risk and optimal portfolio choice
Buraschi, Andrea; Porchia, Paolo; Trojani, Fabio
2010-01-01
We develop a new framework for multivariate intertemporal portfolio choice that allows us to derive optimal portfolio implications for economies in which the degree of correlation across industries, countries, or asset classes is stochastic. Optimal portfolios include distinct hedging components against both stochastic volatility and correlation risk. We find that the hedging demand is typically larger than in univariate models, and it includes an economically significant covariance hedging...
Risk and utility in portfolio optimization
Cohen, Morrel H.; Natoli, Vincent D.
2003-06-01
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) addresses the problem of determining the optimum allocation of investment resources among a set of candidate assets. In the original mean-variance approach of Markowitz, volatility is taken as a proxy for risk, conflating uncertainty with risk. There have been many subsequent attempts to alleviate that weakness which, typically, combine utility and risk. We present here a modification of MPT based on the inclusion of separate risk and utility criteria. We define risk as the probability of failure to meet a pre-established investment goal. We define utility as the expectation of a utility function with positive and decreasing marginal value as a function of yield. The emphasis throughout is on long investment horizons for which risk-free assets do not exist. Analytic results are presented for a Gaussian probability distribution. Risk-utility relations are explored via empirical stock-price data, and an illustrative portfolio is optimized using the empirical data.
A Polynomial Optimization Approach to Constant Rebalanced Portfolio Selection
Takano, Y.; Sotirov, R.
2010-01-01
We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on
A polynomial optimization approach to constant rebalanced portfolio selection
Takano, Y.; Sotirov, R.
2012-01-01
We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on
portfolio optimization based on nonparametric estimation methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
mahsa ghandehari
2017-03-01
Full Text Available One of the major issues investors are facing with in capital markets is decision making about select an appropriate stock exchange for investing and selecting an optimal portfolio. This process is done through the risk and expected return assessment. On the other hand in portfolio selection problem if the assets expected returns are normally distributed, variance and standard deviation are used as a risk measure. But, the expected returns on assets are not necessarily normal and sometimes have dramatic differences from normal distribution. This paper with the introduction of conditional value at risk ( CVaR, as a measure of risk in a nonparametric framework, for a given expected return, offers the optimal portfolio and this method is compared with the linear programming method. The data used in this study consists of monthly returns of 15 companies selected from the top 50 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the winter of 1392 which is considered from April of 1388 to June of 1393. The results of this study show the superiority of nonparametric method over the linear programming method and the nonparametric method is much faster than the linear programming method.
Two-Stage Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Transaction Costs
Chen, Yanju; Wang, Ye
2015-01-01
This paper studies a two-period portfolio selection problem. The problem is formulated as a two-stage fuzzy portfolio selection model with transaction costs, in which the future returns of risky security are characterized by possibility distributions. The objective of the proposed model is to achieve the maximum utility in terms of the expected value and variance of the final wealth. Given the first-stage decision vector and a realization of fuzzy return, the optimal value expression of the s...
Portfolio optimization with structured products under return constraint
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baweja Meena
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A new approach for optimizing risk in a portfolio of financial instruments involving structured products is presented. This paper deals with a portfolio selection model which uses optimization methodology to minimize conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR under return constraint. It focuses on minimizing CVaR rather than on minimizing value-at-Risk VaR, as portfolios with low CVaR necessarily have low VaR as well. We consider a simple investment problem where besides stocks and bonds, the investor can also include structured products into the investment portfolio. Due to possible intermediate payments from structured product, we have to deal with a re-investment problem modeled as a linear optimization problem.
Fault Tolerant Distributed Portfolio Optimization in Smart Grids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juelsgaard, Morten; Wisniewski, Rafal; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon
2014-01-01
optimization scheme for power balancing, where communication is allowed only between units that are linked in the graph. We include consumers with controllable consumption as an active part of the portfolio. We show that a suboptimal, but arbitrarily good power balancing can be obtained in an uncoordinated......, distributed optimization framework, and argue that the scheme will work even if the computation time is limited. We further show that our approach can tolerate changes in the portfolio, in the sense that increasing or reducing the number of units in the portfolio requires only local updates. This ensures......This work considers a portfolio of units for electrical power production and the problem of utilizing it to maintain power balance in the electrical grid. We treat the portfolio as a graph in which the nodes are distributed generators and the links are communication paths. We present a distributed...
Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma Jin; Song Qingshuo; Xu Jing; Zhang Jianfeng
2013-01-01
In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a “piecewise constant” form, reflecting a more practical perspective.
Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States); Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk [City University of Hong Kong, Department of Mathematics (Hong Kong); Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn [Chongqing University, School of Economics and Business Administration (China); Zhang Jianfeng, E-mail: jianfenz@usc.edu [University of Southern California, Department of Mathematics (United States)
2013-06-15
In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solution to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.
A Simulation Approach to Statistical Estimation of Multiperiod Optimal Portfolios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hiroshi Shiraishi
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time multiperiod portfolio choice problems under AR(1 process. The method is applicable even if the distributions of return processes are unknown. We first generate simulation sample paths of the random returns by using AR bootstrap. Then, for each sample path and each investment time, we obtain an optimal portfolio estimator, which optimizes a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA utility function. When an investor considers an optimal investment strategy with portfolio rebalancing, it is convenient to introduce a value function. The most important difference between single-period portfolio choice problems and multiperiod ones is that the value function is time dependent. Our method takes care of the time dependency by using bootstrapped sample paths. Numerical studies are provided to examine the validity of our method. The result shows the necessity to take care of the time dependency of the value function.
Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion
A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)
2000-01-01
textabstractProspect theory and loss aversion play a dominant role in behavioral finance. In this paper we derive closed-form solutions for optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion. When confronted with gains a loss averse investor behaves similar to a portfolio insurer. When confronted with
Optimization of the bank's operating portfolio
Borodachev, S. M.; Medvedev, M. A.
2016-06-01
The theory of efficient portfolios developed by Markowitz is used to optimize the structure of the types of financial operations of a bank (bank portfolio) in order to increase the profit and reduce the risk. The focus of this paper is to check the stability of the model to errors in the original data.
Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility
Varga, Katherine Yvonne
2015-01-01
We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…
Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ankirchner, Stefan, E-mail: ankirchner@hcm.uni-bonn.de [Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitaet Bonn, Institut fuer Angewandte Mathematik, Hausdorff Center for Mathematics (Germany); Dermoune, Azzouz, E-mail: Azzouz.Dermoune@math.univ-lille1.fr [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Laboratoire Paul Painleve UMR CNRS 8524 (France)
2011-08-15
The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.
Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization via Market Cloning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ankirchner, Stefan; Dermoune, Azzouz
2011-01-01
The problem of finding the mean variance optimal portfolio in a multiperiod model can not be solved directly by means of dynamic programming. In order to find a solution we therefore first introduce independent market clones having the same distributional properties as the original market, and we replace the portfolio mean and variance by their empirical counterparts. We then use dynamic programming to derive portfolios maximizing a weighted sum of the empirical mean and variance. By letting the number of market clones converge to infinity we are able to solve the original mean variance problem.
Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel
2011-01-01
We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...
Portfolio optimization by using linear programing models based on genetic algorithm
Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Lesmana, E.; Putra, A. S.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.
2018-01-01
In this paper, we discussed the investment portfolio optimization using linear programming model based on genetic algorithms. It is assumed that the portfolio risk is measured by absolute standard deviation, and each investor has a risk tolerance on the investment portfolio. To complete the investment portfolio optimization problem, the issue is arranged into a linear programming model. Furthermore, determination of the optimum solution for linear programming is done by using a genetic algorithm. As a numerical illustration, we analyze some of the stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, it is shown that the portfolio optimization performed by genetic algorithm approach produces more optimal efficient portfolio, compared to the portfolio optimization performed by a linear programming algorithm approach. Therefore, genetic algorithms can be considered as an alternative on determining the investment portfolio optimization, particularly using linear programming models.
Noisy covariance matrices and portfolio optimization II
Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre
2003-03-01
Recent studies inspired by results from random matrix theory (Galluccio et al.: Physica A 259 (1998) 449; Laloux et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1467; Risk 12 (3) (1999) 69; Plerou et al.: Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 1471) found that covariance matrices determined from empirical financial time series appear to contain such a high amount of noise that their structure can essentially be regarded as random. This seems, however, to be in contradiction with the fundamental role played by covariance matrices in finance, which constitute the pillars of modern investment theory and have also gained industry-wide applications in risk management. Our paper is an attempt to resolve this embarrassing paradox. The key observation is that the effect of noise strongly depends on the ratio r= n/ T, where n is the size of the portfolio and T the length of the available time series. On the basis of numerical experiments and analytic results for some toy portfolio models we show that for relatively large values of r (e.g. 0.6) noise does, indeed, have the pronounced effect suggested by Galluccio et al. (1998), Laloux et al. (1999) and Plerou et al. (1999) and illustrated later by Laloux et al. (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 3 (2000) 391), Plerou et al. (Phys. Rev. E, e-print cond-mat/0108023) and Rosenow et al. (Europhys. Lett., e-print cond-mat/0111537) in a portfolio optimization context, while for smaller r (around 0.2 or below), the error due to noise drops to acceptable levels. Since the length of available time series is for obvious reasons limited in any practical application, any bound imposed on the noise-induced error translates into a bound on the size of the portfolio. In a related set of experiments we find that the effect of noise depends also on whether the problem arises in asset allocation or in a risk measurement context: if covariance matrices are used simply for measuring the risk of portfolios with a fixed composition rather than as inputs to optimization, the
Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market
Širůček, Martin; Křen, Lukáš
2015-01-01
ŠIRŮČEK MARTIN, KŘEN LUKÁŠ. 2015. Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(4): 1375–1386. This paper is focused on building investment portfolios by using the Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT). Derivation based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate the weights of individual securities in portfolios. The calculated portfolios include a po...
Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jin Xisong
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.
RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming-Chang LEE
2015-07-01
Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets. The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management. The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis. Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank. In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm. This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method. Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space. It is easy calculation in proposed method.
A Maximum Entropy Method for a Robust Portfolio Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yingying Xu
2014-06-01
Full Text Available We propose a continuous maximum entropy method to investigate the robustoptimal portfolio selection problem for the market with transaction costs and dividends.This robust model aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return in the case that allof asset returns lie within some prescribed intervals. A numerical optimal solution tothe problem is obtained by using a continuous maximum entropy method. Furthermore,some numerical experiments indicate that the robust model in this paper can result in betterportfolio performance than a classical mean-variance model.
The admissible portfolio selection problem with transaction costs and an improved PSO algorithm
Chen, Wei; Zhang, Wei-Guo
2010-05-01
In this paper, we discuss the portfolio selection problem with transaction costs under the assumption that there exist admissible errors on expected returns and risks of assets. We propose a new admissible efficient portfolio selection model and design an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm because traditional optimization algorithms fail to work efficiently for our proposed problem. Finally, we offer a numerical example to illustrate the proposed effective approaches and compare the admissible portfolio efficient frontiers under different constraints.
Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tina Engler
2014-12-01
Full Text Available We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0; T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions.
Portfolio optimization with skewness and kurtosis
Lam, Weng Hoe; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi
2013-04-01
Mean and variance of return distributions are two important parameters of the mean-variance model in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model will become inadequate if the returns of assets are not normally distributed. Therefore, higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis cannot be ignored. Risk averse investors prefer portfolios with high skewness and low kurtosis so that the probability of getting negative rates of return will be reduced. The objective of this study is to compare the portfolio compositions as well as performances between the mean-variance model and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model by using the polynomial goal programming approach. The results show that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis will change the optimal portfolio compositions. The mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model outperforms the mean-variance model because the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model takes skewness and kurtosis into consideration. Therefore, the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is more appropriate for the investors of Malaysia in portfolio optimization.
Contract portfolio optimization for a gasoline supply chain
Wang, Shanshan
Major oil companies sell gasoline through three channels of trade: branded (associated with long-term contracts), unbranded (associated with short-term contracts), and spot market. The branded channel provides them with a long-term secured and sustainable demand source, but requires an inflexible long-term commitment with demand and price risks. The unbranded channel provides a medium level of allocation flexibility. The spot market provides them with the greatest allocation flexibility to the changing market conditions, but the spot market's illiquidity mitigates this benefit. In order to sell the product in a profitable and sustainable way, they need an optimal contract portfolio. This dissertation addresses the contract portfolio optimization problem from different perspectives (retrospective view and forward-looking view) at different levels (strategic level, tactical level and operational level). The objective of the retrospective operational model is to develop a financial case to estimate the business value of having a dynamic optimization model and quantify the opportunity values missed in the past. This model proves the financial significance of the problem and provides top management valuable insights into the business. BP has applied the insights and principles gained from this work and implemented the model to the entire Midwest gasoline supply chain to retrospectively review optimization opportunities. The strategic model is the most parsimonious model that captures the essential economic tradeoffs among different contract types, to demonstrate the need for a contract portfolio and what drives the portfolio. We examine the properties of the optimal contract portfolio and provide a comparative statics analysis by changing the model parameters. As the strategic model encapsulates the business problem at the macroscopic level, the tactical model resolves lower level issues. It considers the time dynamics, the information flow and contracting flow. Using
Portfolio optimization with short-selling and spin-glass
Schianchi, A.; Bongini, L.; Degli Esposti, M.; Giardinà, C.
2002-01-01
n this paper, we solve a general problem of optimizing a portfolio in a futures markets framework, extending the previous work of Galluccio et al. [Physica A 259, 449 (1998)]. We allow for long buying/short selling of a relatively large number of assets, assuming a fixed level of margin requirement.
Optimal portfolio strategies under a shortfall constraint | Akume ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We impose dynamically, a shortfall constraint in terms of Tail Conditional Expectation on the portfolio selection problem in continuous time, in order to obtain optimal strategies. The nancial market is assumed to comprise n risky assets driven by geometric Brownian motion and one risk-free asset. The method of Lagrange ...
An Extensive Evaluation of Portfolio Approaches for Constraint Satisfaction Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto Amadini
2016-06-01
Full Text Available In the context of Constraint Programming, a portfolio approach exploits the complementary strengths of a portfolio of different constraint solvers. The goal is to predict and run the best solver(s of the portfolio for solving a new, unseen problem. In this work we reproduce, simulate, and evaluate the performance of different portfolio approaches on extensive benchmarks of Constraint Satisfaction Problems. Empirical results clearly show the benefits of portfolio solvers in terms of both solved instances and solving time.
Application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory by Building Optimal Portfolio on the US Stock Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martin Širůček
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is focused on building investment portfolios by using the Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT. Derivation based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is used to calculate the weights of individual securities in portfolios. The calculated portfolios include a portfolio copying the benchmark made using the CAPM model, portfolio with low and high beta coefficients, and a random portfolio. Only stocks were selected for the examined sample from all the asset classes. Stocks in each portfolio are put together according to predefined criteria. All stocks were selected from Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA index which serves as a benchmark, too. Portfolios were compared based on their risk and return profiles. The results of this work will provide general recommendations on the optimal approach to choose securities for an investor’s portfolio.
B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)
2007-01-01
textabstractWe discuss a class of risk measures for portfolio optimization with linear loss functions, where the random returns of financial instruments have a multivariate elliptical distribution. Under this setting we pay special attention to two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and
Product portfolio optimization based on substitution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Myrodia, Anna; Moseley, A.; Hvam, Lars
2017-01-01
The development of production capabilities has led to proliferation of the product variety offered to the customer. Yet this fact does not directly imply increase of manufacturers' profitability, nor customers' satisfaction. Consequently, recent research focuses on portfolio optimization through...... substitution and standardization techniques. However when re-defining the strategic market decisions are characterized by uncertainty due to several parameters. In this study, by using a GAMS optimization model we present a method for supporting strategic decisions on substitution, by quantifying the impact...
Markowitz portfolio optimization model employing fuzzy measure
Ramli, Suhailywati; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah
2017-04-01
Markowitz in 1952 introduced the mean-variance methodology for the portfolio selection problems. His pioneering research has shaped the portfolio risk-return model and become one of the most important research fields in modern finance. This paper extends the classical Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model applying the fuzzy measure to determine the risk and return. In this paper, we apply the original mean-variance model as a benchmark, fuzzy mean-variance model with fuzzy return and the model with return are modeled by specific types of fuzzy number for comparison. The model with fuzzy approach gives better performance as compared to the mean-variance approach. The numerical examples are included to illustrate these models by employing Malaysian share market data.
B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)
2007-01-01
textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions
Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike
2016-01-01
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...
V.A.F. Dallagnol (V. A F); J.H. van den Berg (Jan); L. Mous (Lonneke)
2009-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, it is shown a comparison of the application of particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithms to portfolio management, in a constrained portfolio optimization problem where no short sales are allowed. The objective function to be minimized is the value at risk
Large Portfolio Risk Management and Optimal Portfolio Allocation with Dynamic Copulas
Thorsten Lehnert; Xisong Jin
2011-01-01
Previous research focuses on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, available dynamic models are not easily applied for high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures like Value at Ris...
Ant Colony Optimization for Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio Model
Deng, Guang-Feng; Lin, Woo-Tsong
This work presents Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), which was initially developed to be a meta-heuristic for combinatorial optimization, for solving the cardinality constraints Markowitz mean-variance portfolio model (nonlinear mixed quadratic programming problem). To our knowledge, an efficient algorithmic solution for this problem has not been proposed until now. Using heuristic algorithms in this case is imperative. Numerical solutions are obtained for five analyses of weekly price data for the following indices for the period March, 1992 to September, 1997: Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany, FTSE 100 in UK, S&P 100 in USA and Nikkei 225 in Japan. The test results indicate that the ACO is much more robust and effective than Particle swarm optimization (PSO), especially for low-risk investment portfolios.
Ant colony algorithm for clustering in portfolio optimization
Subekti, R.; Sari, E. R.; Kusumawati, R.
2018-03-01
This research aims to describe portfolio optimization using clustering methods with ant colony approach. Two stock portfolios of LQ45 Indonesia is proposed based on the cluster results obtained from ant colony optimization (ACO). The first portfolio consists of assets with ant colony displacement opportunities beyond the defined probability limits of the researcher, where the weight of each asset is determined by mean-variance method. The second portfolio consists of two assets with the assumption that each asset is a cluster formed from ACO. The first portfolio has a better performance compared to the second portfolio seen from the Sharpe index.
Optimal Portfolio Strategy under Rolling Economic Maximum Drawdown Constraints
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaojian Yu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of optimal portfolio strategy under the constraints of rolling economic maximum drawdown. A more practical strategy is developed by using rolling Sharpe ratio in computing the allocation proportion in contrast to existing models. Besides, another novel strategy named “REDP strategy” is further proposed, which replaces the rolling economic drawdown of the portfolio with the rolling economic drawdown of the risky asset. The simulation tests prove that REDP strategy can ensure the portfolio to satisfy the drawdown constraint and outperforms other strategies significantly. An empirical comparison research on the performances of different strategies is carried out by using the 23-year monthly data of SPTR, DJUBS, and 3-month T-bill. The investment cases of single risky asset and two risky assets are both studied in this paper. Empirical results indicate that the REDP strategy successfully controls the maximum drawdown within the given limit and performs best in both return and risk.
MARKOV CHAIN PORTFOLIO LIQUIDITY OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eder Oliveira Abensur
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The international financial crisis of September 2008 and May 2010 showed the importance of liquidity as an attribute to be considered in portfolio decisions. This study proposes an optimization model based on available public data, using Markov chain and Genetic Algorithms concepts as it considers the classic duality of risk versus return and incorporating liquidity costs. The work intends to propose a multi-criterion non-linear optimization model using liquidity based on a Markov chain. The non-linear model was tested using Genetic Algorithms with twenty five Brazilian stocks from 2007 to 2009. The results suggest that this is an innovative development methodology and useful for developing an efficient and realistic financial portfolio, as it considers many attributes such as risk, return and liquidity.
Bond portfolio's duration and investment term-structure management problem
Liu, Daobai
2006-01-01
In the considered bond market, there are N zero-coupon bonds transacted continuously, which will mature at equally spaced dates. A duration of bond portfolios under stochastic interest rate model is introduced, which provides a measurement for the interest rate risk. Then we consider an optimal bond investment term-structure management problem using this duration as a performance index, and with the short-term interest rate process satisfying some stochastic differential ...
Portfolio Implementation Risk Management Using Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Quintana
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Portfolio management based on mean-variance portfolio optimization is subject to different sources of uncertainty. In addition to those related to the quality of parameter estimates used in the optimization process, investors face a portfolio implementation risk. The potential temporary discrepancy between target and present portfolios, caused by trading strategies, may expose investors to undesired risks. This study proposes an evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm aiming at regions with solutions more tolerant to these deviations and, therefore, more reliable. The proposed approach incorporates a user’s preference and seeks a fine-grained approximation of the most relevant efficient region. The computational experiments performed in this study are based on a cardinality-constrained problem with investment limits for eight broad-category indexes and 15 years of data. The obtained results show the ability of the proposed approach to address the robustness issue and to support decision making by providing a preferred part of the efficient set. The results reveal that the obtained solutions also exhibit a higher tolerance to prediction errors in asset returns and variance–covariance matrix.
Liu, Qingshan; Dang, Chuangyin; Huang, Tingwen
2013-02-01
This paper presents a decision-making model described by a recurrent neural network for dynamic portfolio optimization. The portfolio-optimization problem is first converted into a constrained fractional programming problem. Since the objective function in the programming problem is not convex, the traditional optimization techniques are no longer applicable for solving this problem. Fortunately, the objective function in the fractional programming is pseudoconvex on the feasible region. It leads to a one-layer recurrent neural network modeled by means of a discontinuous dynamic system. To ensure the optimal solutions for portfolio optimization, the convergence of the proposed neural network is analyzed and proved. In fact, the neural network guarantees to get the optimal solutions for portfolio-investment advice if some mild conditions are satisfied. A numerical example with simulation results substantiates the effectiveness and illustrates the characteristics of the proposed neural network.
Construction of uncertainty sets for portfolio selection problems
Wiechers, Christof
2011-01-01
While modern portfolio theory grounds on the trade-off between portfolio return and portfolio variance to determine the optimal investment decision, postmodern portfolio theory uses downside risk measures instead of the variance. Prominent examples are given by the risk measures Value-at-Risk and its coherent extension, Conditional Value-at-Risk. When avoiding distributional assumptions on the process that generates the risky assets' returns, historical return data or expert knowledge remain ...
Application of Performance Ratios in Portfolio Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleš Kresta
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The cornerstone of modern portfolio theory was established by pioneer work of Harry Markowitz. Based on his mean-variance framework, Sharpe formulated his well-known Sharpe ratio aiming to measure the performance of mutual funds. The contemporary development in computer’s computational power allowed to apply more complex performance ratios, which take into account also higher moments of return probability distribution. Although these ratios were proposed to help the investors to improve the results of portfolio optimization, we empirically demonstrated in our paper that this may not necessarily be true. On the historical dataset of DJIA components we empirically showed that both Sharpe ratio and MAD ratio outperformed Rachev ratio. However, for Rachev ratio we assumed only one level of parameters value. Different set-ups of parameters may provide different results and thus further analysis is certainly required.
Two-Stage Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Transaction Costs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yanju Chen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper studies a two-period portfolio selection problem. The problem is formulated as a two-stage fuzzy portfolio selection model with transaction costs, in which the future returns of risky security are characterized by possibility distributions. The objective of the proposed model is to achieve the maximum utility in terms of the expected value and variance of the final wealth. Given the first-stage decision vector and a realization of fuzzy return, the optimal value expression of the second-stage programming problem is derived. As a result, the proposed two-stage model is equivalent to a single-stage model, and the analytical optimal solution of the two-stage model is obtained, which helps us to discuss the properties of the optimal solution. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed to demonstrate the new modeling idea and the effectiveness. The computational results provided by the proposed model show that the more risk-averse investor will invest more wealth in the risk-free security. They also show that the optimal invested amount in risky security increases as the risk-free return decreases and the optimal utility increases as the risk-free return increases, whereas the optimal utility increases as the transaction costs decrease. In most instances the utilities provided by the proposed two-stage model are larger than those provided by the single-stage model.
Log-Optimal Portfolio Selection Using the Blackwell Approachability Theorem
V'yugin, Vladimir
2014-01-01
We present a method for constructing the log-optimal portfolio using the well-calibrated forecasts of market values. Dawid's notion of calibration and the Blackwell approachability theorem are used for computing well-calibrated forecasts. We select a portfolio using this "artificial" probability distribution of market values. Our portfolio performs asymptotically at least as well as any stationary portfolio that redistributes the investment at each round using a continuous function of side in...
Quantitative Portfolio Optimization Techniques Applied to the Brazilian Stock Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
André Alves Portela Santos
2012-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper we assess the out-of-sample performance of two alternative quantitative portfolio optimization techniques - mean-variance and minimum variance optimization – and compare their performance with respect to a naive 1/N (or equally-weighted portfolio and also to the market portfolio given by the Ibovespa. We focus on short selling-constrained portfolios and consider alternative estimators for the covariance matrices: sample covariance matrix, RiskMetrics, and three covariance estimators proposed by Ledoit and Wolf (2003, Ledoit and Wolf (2004a and Ledoit and Wolf (2004b. Taking into account alternative portfolio re-balancing frequencies, we compute out-of-sample performance statistics which indicate that the quantitative approaches delivered improved results in terms of lower portfolio volatility and better risk-adjusted returns. Moreover, the use of more sophisticated estimators for the covariance matrix generated optimal portfolios with lower turnover over time.
Optimal Premium Pricing for a Heterogeneous Portfolio of Insurance Risks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Athanasios A. Pantelous
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The paper revisits the classical problem of premium rating within a heterogeneous portfolio of insurance risks using a continuous stochastic control framework. The portfolio is divided into several classes where each class interacts with the others. The risks are modelled dynamically by the means of a Brownian motion. This dynamic approach is also transferred to the design of the premium process. The premium is not constant but equals the drift of the Brownian motion plus a controlled percentage of the respective volatility. The optimal controller for the premium is obtained using advanced optimization techniques, and it is finally shown that the respective pricing strategy follows a more balanced development compared with the traditional premium approaches.
Dong, Yijun
The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Branka Marasović
2009-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.
Replica Analysis for Portfolio Optimization with Single-Factor Model
Shinzato, Takashi
2017-06-01
In this paper, we use replica analysis to investigate the influence of correlation among the return rates of assets on the solution of the portfolio optimization problem. We consider the behavior of an optimal solution for the case where the return rate is described with a single-factor model and compare the findings obtained from our proposed methods with correlated return rates with those obtained with independent return rates. We then analytically assess the increase in the investment risk when correlation is included. Furthermore, we also compare our approach with analytical procedures for minimizing the investment risk from operations research.
Three Essays on Robust Optimization of Efficient Portfolios
Liu, Hao
2013-01-01
The mean-variance approach was first proposed by Markowitz (1952), and laid the foundation of the modern portfolio theory. Despite its theoretical appeal, the practical implementation of optimized portfolios is strongly restricted by the fact that the two inputs, the means and the covariance matrix of asset returns, are unknown and have to be estimated by available historical information. Due to the estimation risk inherited from inputs, desired properties of estimated optimal portfolios are ...
Portfolio optimization in enhanced index tracking with goal programming approach
Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Ismail, Hamizun bin
2014-09-01
Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of passive fund management in stock market. Enhanced index tracking aims to generate excess return over the return achieved by the market index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. This can be done by establishing an optimal portfolio to maximize the mean return and minimize the risk. The objective of this paper is to determine the portfolio composition and performance using goal programming approach in enhanced index tracking and comparing it to the market index. Goal programming is a branch of multi-objective optimization which can handle decision problems that involve two different goals in enhanced index tracking, a trade-off between maximizing the mean return and minimizing the risk. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio with goal programming approach is able to outperform the Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index because of higher mean return and lower risk without purchasing all the stocks in the market index.
Delegated Portfolio Management and Optimal Allocation of Portfolio Managers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Michael; Vangsgaard Christensen, Michael; Gamskjaer, Ken
2015-01-01
In this article, we investigate whether the application of the mean-variance framework on portfolio manager allocation offers any out-of-sample benefits compared to a naïve strategy of equal weighting. Based on an exclusive data-set of high-net-worth (HNW) investors, we utilize a wide variety of ...
Behavioral optimization models for multicriteria portfolio selection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehlawat Mukesh Kumar
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, behavioral construct of suitability is used to develop a multicriteria decision making framework for portfolio selection. To achieve this purpose, we rely on multiple methodologies. Analytical hierarchy process technique is used to model the suitability considerations with a view to obtaining the suitability performance score in respect of each asset. A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is used to obtain the financial quality score of each asset based upon investor's rating on the financial criteria. Two optimization models are developed for optimal asset allocation considering simultaneously financial and suitability criteria. An empirical study is conducted on randomly selected assets from National Stock Exchange, Mumbai, India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market
Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun
2016-06-01
Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.
Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs and State-Dependent Drift
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Palczewski, Jan; Poulsen, Rolf; Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner
2015-01-01
The problem of dynamic portfolio choice with transaction costs is often addressed by constructing a Markov Chain approximation of the continuous time price processes. Using this approximation, we present an efficient numerical method to determine optimal portfolio strategies under time- and state......-dependent drift and proportional transaction costs. This scenario arises when investors have behavioral biases or the actual drift is unknown and needs to be estimated. Our numerical method solves dynamic optimal portfolio problems with an exponential utility function for time-horizons of up to 40 years....... It is applied to measure the value of information and the loss from transaction costs using the indifference principle....
Public Project Portfolio Optimization under a Participatory Paradigm
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo Fernandez
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A new democracy paradigm is emerging through participatory budgeting exercises, which can be defined as a public space in which the government and the society agree on how to adapt the priorities of the citizenship to the public policy agenda. Although these priorities have been identified and they are likely to be reflected in a ranking of public policy actions, there is still a challenge of solving a portfolio problem of public projects that should implement the agreed agenda. This work proposes two procedures for optimizing the portfolio of public actions with the information stemming from the citizen participatory exercise. The selection of the method depends on the information about preferences collected from the participatory group. When the information is sufficient, the method behaves as an instrument of legitimate democracy. The proposal performs very well in solving two real-size examples.
On the microeconomic problems studied by portfolio theory
Nikonov, Oleg; Medvedeva, Marina
2012-09-01
In the paper we consider economically motivated problems, which are treated with the help of methods of portfolio theory that goes back to the papers by H. Markowitz [1] and J. Tobin [2]. We show that the portfolio theory initially developed for risky securities (stocks) could be applied to other objects. In the present paper we consider several situations where such an application is reasonable and seems to be fruitful. Namely, we consider the problems of constructing the efficient portfolio of banking services and the portfolio of counteragents of a firm.
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Different Borrowing and Lending Rates
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Chen
2011-01-01
the returns of each assets are assumed to be fuzzy variables, then following the mean-variance approach, a new possibilistic portfolio selection model with different interest rates for borrowing and lending is proposed, in which the possibilistic semiabsolute deviation of the return is used to measure investment risk. The conventional probabilistic mean variance model can be transformed to a linear programming problem under possibility distributions. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modeling idea and the impact of borrowing and lending on optimal decision making.
Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik
2017-01-01
Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing...... the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational...... than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces...
Methods of Choosing an Optimal Portfolio of Projects
Yakovlev, A.; Chernenko, M.
2016-01-01
This paper presents an analysis of existing methods for a portfolio of project optimization. The necessity for their improvement is shown. It is suggested to assess the portfolio of projects on the basis of the amount in the difference between the results and costs during development and implementation of selected projects and the losses caused by non-implementation or delayed implementation of projects that were not included in the portfolio. Consideration of capital and current costs compon...
Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization
Varga-Haszonits, Istvan; Caccioli, Fabio; Kondor, Imre
2016-12-01
We consider the problem of mean-variance portfolio optimization for a generic covariance matrix subject to the budget constraint and the constraint for the expected return, with the application of the replica method borrowed from the statistical physics of disordered systems. We find that the replica symmetry of the solution does not need to be assumed, but emerges as the unique solution of the optimization problem. We also check the stability of this solution and find that the eigenvalues of the Hessian are positive for r = N/T optimal in-sample variance is found to vanish at the critical point inversely proportional to the divergent estimation error.
Estimated correlation matrices and portfolio optimization
Pafka, Szilárd; Kondor, Imre
2004-11-01
Correlations of returns on various assets play a central role in financial theory and also in many practical applications. From a theoretical point of view, the main interest lies in the proper description of the structure and dynamics of correlations, whereas for the practitioner the emphasis is on the ability of the models to provide adequate inputs for the numerous portfolio and risk management procedures used in the financial industry. The theory of portfolios, initiated by Markowitz, has suffered from the “curse of dimensions” from the very outset. Over the past decades a large number of different techniques have been developed to tackle this problem and reduce the effective dimension of large bank portfolios, but the efficiency and reliability of these procedures are extremely hard to assess or compare. In this paper, we propose a model (simulation)-based approach which can be used for the systematical testing of all these dimensional reduction techniques. To illustrate the usefulness of our framework, we develop several toy models that display some of the main characteristic features of empirical correlations and generate artificial time series from them. Then, we regard these time series as empirical data and reconstruct the corresponding correlation matrices which will inevitably contain a certain amount of noise, due to the finiteness of the time series. Next, we apply several correlation matrix estimators and dimension reduction techniques introduced in the literature and/or applied in practice. As in our artificial world the only source of error is the finite length of the time series and, in addition, the “true” model, hence also the “true” correlation matrix, are precisely known, therefore in sharp contrast with empirical studies, we can precisely compare the performance of the various noise reduction techniques. One of our recurrent observations is that the recently introduced filtering technique based on random matrix theory performs
Robust Active Portfolio Management
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Erdogan, E; Goldfarb, D; Iyengar, G
2006-01-01
... on the portfolio beta, and limits on cash and industry exposure. We show that the optimal portfolios can be computed by solving second-order cone programs -- a class of optimization problems with a worst case complexity (i.e...
A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty
Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.
2018-03-01
In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.
Keçeci, Neslihan Fidan; Kuzmenko, Viktor; Uryasev, Stan
2016-01-01
The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG) package, which has precoded modules for op...
Neslihan Fidan Keçeci; Viktor Kuzmenko; Stan Uryasev
2016-01-01
The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG) package, which has precoded modules for op...
Electricity portfolio management : optimal peak/off-peak allocations
Huisman, R.; Mahieu, R.J.; Schlichter, F.
2009-01-01
Electricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to optimally
Portfolio optimization of the construction sector companies in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The objective of this paper is to construct the optimal portfolio that will minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the investors target rate of return by using the mean-semi absolute deviation model. The data of this study comprises 20 construction sector companies that listed in Malaysia stock market from July 2011 until ...
Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree
Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas
2018-02-01
In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.
Optimizing Eco-Efficiency Across the Procurement Portfolio.
Pelton, Rylie E O; Li, Mo; Smith, Timothy M; Lyon, Thomas P
2016-06-07
Manufacturing organizations' environmental impacts are often attributable to processes in the firm's upstream supply chain. Environmentally preferable procurement (EPP) and the establishment of environmental purchasing criteria can potentially reduce these indirect impacts. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) can help identify the purchasing criteria that are most effective in reducing environmental impacts. However, the high costs of LCA and the problems associated with the comparability of results have limited efforts to integrate procurement performance with quantitative organizational environmental performance targets. Moreover, environmental purchasing criteria, when implemented, are often established on a product-by-product basis without consideration of other products in the procurement portfolio. We develop an approach that utilizes streamlined LCA methods, together with linear programming, to determine optimal portfolios of product impact-reduction opportunities under budget constraints. The approach is illustrated through a simulated breakfast cereal manufacturing firm procuring grain, containerboard boxes, plastic packaging, electricity, and industrial cleaning solutions. Results suggest that extending EPP decisions and resources to the portfolio level, recently made feasible through the methods illustrated herein, can provide substantially greater CO2e and water-depletion reductions per dollar spend than a product-by-product approach, creating opportunities for procurement organizations to participate in firm-wide environmental impact reduction targets.
Multi-Period Portfolio Optimization of Power Generation Assets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barbara Glensk
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The liberalization and deregulation of the energy industry in the past decades have been significantly affected by changes in the strategies of energy firms. The traditionally used approach of cost minimization was no longer sufficient, risk and market behavior could no longer be ignored and the need for more appropriate optimization methods for uncertain environments was increased. Meanvariance portfolio (MVP theory is one of the more advanced financial methods that has been successfully applied to the energy sector. Unfortunately, this static approach is inadequate for studying multi-stage investment decision problems. The methodology proposed in this paper considering power generation assets is based on the model introduced by Mulvey, who suggests a reallocation approach using the analysis of various scenarios. The adoption of this methodology to power generation assets allows us to capture the impact of variations in the economic and technical parameters considered. The results of our study show that the application of a model for selection of multi-period portfolio can indeed improve the decision making process. Especially for the case of adding new investments to the portfolio mix, this rebalancing model captures new entries very well. (original abstract
Hereditary Portfolio Optimization with Taxes and Fixed Plus Proportional Transaction Costs—Part II
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mou-Hsiung Chang
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is the continuation of the paper entitled “Hereditary portfolio optimization with taxes and fixed plus proportional transaction costs I” that treats an infinite-time horizon hereditary portfolio optimization problem in a market that consists of one savings account and one stock account. Within the solvency region, the investor is allowed to consume from the savings account and can make transactions between the two assets subject to paying capital-gain taxes as well as a fixed plus proportional transaction cost. The investor is to seek an optimal consumption-trading strategy in order to maximize the expected utility from the total discounted consumption. The portfolio optimization problem is formulated as an infinite dimensional stochastic classical impulse control problem due to the hereditary nature of the stock price dynamics and inventories. This paper contains the verification theorem for the optimal strategy. It also proves that the value function is a viscosity solution of the QVHJBI.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Neslihan Fidan Keçeci
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The paper compares portfolio optimization with the Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD constraints with mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. As a distribution-free decision rule, stochastic dominance takes into account the entire distribution of return rather than some specific characteristic, such as variance. The paper is focused on practical applications of the portfolio optimization and uses the Portfolio Safeguard (PSG package, which has precoded modules for optimization with SSD constraints, mean-variance and minimum variance portfolio optimization. We have done in-sample and out-of-sample simulations for portfolios of stocks from the Dow Jones, S&P 100 and DAX indices. The considered portfolios’ SSD dominate the Dow Jones, S&P 100 and DAX indices. Simulation demonstrated a superior performance of portfolios with SD constraints, versus mean-variance and minimum variance portfolios.
Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying
2010-01-01
This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO 2 -emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO 2 -emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.
Optimal portfolio strategies under a shortfall constraint
African Journals Online (AJOL)
we make precise the optimal control problem to be solved. .... is closely related to the concept of Value-at-Risk, but overcomes some of the conceptual .... We adapt a dynamic programming approach to solve the HJB equation associated with.
Mean-variance portfolio optimization with state-dependent risk aversion
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjoerk, Tomas; Murgoci, Agatha; Zhou, Xun Yu
2014-01-01
The objective of this paper is to study the mean-variance portfolio optimization in continuous time. Since this problem is time inconsistent we attack it by placing the problem within a game theoretic framework and look for subgame perfect Nash equilibrium strategies. This particular problem has...
Fuzzy portfolio optimization advances in hybrid multi-criteria methodologies
Gupta, Pankaj; Inuiguchi, Masahiro; Chandra, Suresh
2014-01-01
This monograph presents a comprehensive study of portfolio optimization, an important area of quantitative finance. Considering that the information available in financial markets is incomplete and that the markets are affected by vagueness and ambiguity, the monograph deals with fuzzy portfolio optimization models. At first, the book makes the reader familiar with basic concepts, including the classical mean–variance portfolio analysis. Then, it introduces advanced optimization techniques and applies them for the development of various multi-criteria portfolio optimization models in an uncertain environment. The models are developed considering both the financial and non-financial criteria of investment decision making, and the inputs from the investment experts. The utility of these models in practice is then demonstrated using numerical illustrations based on real-world data, which were collected from one of the premier stock exchanges in India. The book addresses both academics and professionals pursuin...
Optimal wind power deployment in Europe. A portfolio approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roques, Fabien; Hiroux, Celine; Saguan, Marcelo
2010-01-01
Geographic diversification of wind farms can smooth out the fluctuations in wind power generation and reduce the associated system balancing and reliability costs. The paper uses historical wind production data from five European countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, and Spain) and applies the Mean-Variance Portfolio theory to identify cross-country portfolios that minimise the total variance of wind production for a given level of production. Theoretical unconstrained portfolios show that countries (Spain and Denmark) with the best wind resource or whose size contributes to smoothing out the country output variability dominate optimal portfolios. The methodology is then elaborated to derive optimal constrained portfolios taking into account national wind resource potential and transmission constraints and compare them with the projected portfolios for 2020. Such constraints limit the theoretical potential efficiency gains from geographical diversification, but there is still considerable room to improve performance from actual or projected portfolios. These results highlight the need for more cross-border interconnection capacity, for greater coordination of European renewable support policies, and for renewable support mechanisms and electricity market designs providing locational incentives. Under these conditions, a mechanism for renewables credits trading could help aligning wind power portfolios with the theoretically efficient geographic dispersion. (author)
Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio
Yu Feng; Matus Medo; Liang Zhang; Yi-Cheng Zhang
2010-01-01
The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return di...
Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina; Pisinger, David; Weissensteiner, Alex
2015-01-01
The paper investigates the importance of in ation-linked annuities to individuals facing in ation risk. Given the investment opportunities in nominal, real, and variable annuities, as well as cash and stocks, we investigate the consumption and investment decisions under two different objective fu...... and risk aversion, real annuities are a crucial asset in every portfolio. In addition, without investing in real annuities, the retiree has to rebalance the portfolio more frequently, and still obtains the lower and more volatile real consumption....
Multi-period mean–variance portfolio optimization based on Monte-Carlo simulation
F. Cong (Fei); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)
2016-01-01
htmlabstractWe propose a simulation-based approach for solving the constrained dynamic mean– variance portfolio managemen tproblem. For this dynamic optimization problem, we first consider a sub-optimal strategy, called the multi-stage strategy, which can be utilized in a forward fashion. Then,
Portfolio selection problem with liquidity constraints under non-extensive statistical mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao, Pan; Xiao, Qingxian
2016-01-01
In this study, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem with liquidity limits. A portfolio selection model is proposed in which the risky asset price is driven by the process based on non-extensive statistical mechanics instead of the classic Wiener process. Using dynamic programming and Lagrange multiplier methods, we obtain the optimal policy and value function. Moreover, the numerical results indicate that this model is considerably different from the model based on the classic Wiener process, the optimal strategy is affected by the non-extensive parameter q, the increase in the investment in the risky asset is faster at a larger parameter q and the increase in wealth is similar.
Classical-Equivalent Bayesian Portfolio Optimization for Electricity Generation Planning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hellinton H. Takada
2018-01-01
Full Text Available There are several electricity generation technologies based on different sources such as wind, biomass, gas, coal, and so on. The consideration of the uncertainties associated with the future costs of such technologies is crucial for planning purposes. In the literature, the allocation of resources in the available technologies has been solved as a mean-variance optimization problem assuming knowledge of the expected values and the covariance matrix of the costs. However, in practice, they are not exactly known parameters. Consequently, the obtained optimal allocations from the mean-variance optimization are not robust to possible estimation errors of such parameters. Additionally, it is usual to have electricity generation technology specialists participating in the planning processes and, obviously, the consideration of useful prior information based on their previous experience is of utmost importance. The Bayesian models consider not only the uncertainty in the parameters, but also the prior information from the specialists. In this paper, we introduce the classical-equivalent Bayesian mean-variance optimization to solve the electricity generation planning problem using both improper and proper prior distributions for the parameters. In order to illustrate our approach, we present an application comparing the classical-equivalent Bayesian with the naive mean-variance optimal portfolios.
Reliable Portfolio Selection Problem in Fuzzy Environment: An mλ Measure Based Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuan Feng
2017-04-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates a fuzzy portfolio selection problem with guaranteed reliability, in which the fuzzy variables are used to capture the uncertain returns of different securities. To effectively handle the fuzziness in a mathematical way, a new expected value operator and variance of fuzzy variables are defined based on the m λ measure that is a linear combination of the possibility measure and necessity measure to balance the pessimism and optimism in the decision-making process. To formulate the reliable portfolio selection problem, we particularly adopt the expected total return and standard variance of the total return to evaluate the reliability of the investment strategies, producing three risk-guaranteed reliable portfolio selection models. To solve the proposed models, an effective genetic algorithm is designed to generate the approximate optimal solution to the considered problem. Finally, the numerical examples are given to show the performance of the proposed models and algorithm.
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problem with Different Borrowing and Lending Rates
Chen, Wei; Yang, Yiping; Ma, Hui
2011-01-01
As we know, borrowing and lending risk-free assets arise extensively in the theory and practice of finance. However, little study has ever investigated them in fuzzy portfolio problem. In this paper, the returns of each assets are assumed to be fuzzy variables, then following the mean-variance approach, a new possibilistic portfolio selection model with different interest rates for borrowing and lending is proposed, in which the possibilistic semiabsolute deviation of the return is used to...
Optimal static allocation decisions in the presence of portfolio insurance
Goltz, Felix; Martellini, Lionel; Şimşek, Koray Deniz; Simsek, Koray Deniz
2008-01-01
The focus of this paper is to determine what fraction a myopic risk-averse investor should allocate to investment strategies with convex exposure to stock market returns in a general economy with stochastically time-varying interest rates and equity risk premium. Our conclusion is that typical investors should optimally allocate a sizable fraction of their portfolio to such portfolio insurance strategies, and the associated utility gains are significant. While the fact that static investors w...
Penalty Algorithm Based on Conjugate Gradient Method for Solving Portfolio Management Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang YaLin
2009-01-01
Full Text Available A new approach was proposed to reformulate the biobjectives optimization model of portfolio management into an unconstrained minimization problem, where the objective function is a piecewise quadratic polynomial. We presented some properties of such an objective function. Then, a class of penalty algorithms based on the well-known conjugate gradient methods was developed to find the solution of portfolio management problem. By implementing the proposed algorithm to solve the real problems from the stock market in China, it was shown that this algorithm is promising.
A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization
Yang, Liusha; Couillet, Romain; McKay, Matthew R.
2015-12-01
We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of available market returns is often of similar order to the number of assets, so that the sample covariance matrix performs poorly as a covariance estimator. Additionally, financial market data often contain outliers which, if not correctly handled, may further corrupt the covariance estimation. We address these shortcomings by studying the performance of a hybrid covariance matrix estimator based on Tyler's robust M-estimator and on Ledoit-Wolf's shrinkage estimator while assuming samples with heavy-tailed distribution. Employing recent results from random matrix theory, we develop a consistent estimator of (a scaled version of) the realized portfolio risk, which is minimized by optimizing online the shrinkage intensity. Our portfolio optimization method is shown via simulations to outperform existing methods both for synthetic and real market data.
Mean-Variance portfolio optimization when each asset has individual uncertain exit-time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Keykhaei
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The standard Markowitz Mean-Variance optimization model is a single-period portfolio selection approach where the exit-time (or the time-horizon is deterministic. In this paper we study the Mean-Variance portfolio selection problem with uncertain exit-time when each has individual uncertain xit-time, which generalizes the Markowitz's model. We provide some conditions under which the optimal portfolio of the generalized problem is independent of the exit-times distributions. Also, it is shown that under some general circumstances, the sets of optimal portfolios in the generalized model and the standard model are the same.
Optimal Premium Pricing for a Heterogeneous Portfolio of Insurance Risks
Pantelous, Athanasios A.; Frangos, Nicholas E.; Zimbidis, Alexandros A.
2009-01-01
The paper revisits the classical problem of premium rating within a heterogeneous portfolio of insurance risks using a continuous stochastic control framework. The portfolio is divided into several classes where each class interacts with the others. The risks are modelled dynamically by the means of a Brownian motion. This dynamic approach is also transferred to the design of the premium process. The premium is not constant but equals the drift of the Brownian motion plus a controlled percent...
Mean-variance model for portfolio optimization with background risk based on uncertainty theory
Zhai, Jia; Bai, Manying
2018-04-01
The aim of this paper is to develop a mean-variance model for portfolio optimization considering the background risk, liquidity and transaction cost based on uncertainty theory. In portfolio selection problem, returns of securities and assets liquidity are assumed as uncertain variables because of incidents or lacking of historical data, which are common in economic and social environment. We provide crisp forms of the model and a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve it. Under a mean-variance framework, we analyze the portfolio frontier characteristic considering independently additive background risk. In addition, we discuss some effects of background risk and liquidity constraint on the portfolio selection. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed models by numerical simulations.
Elie, Romuald; Espinosa, Gilles-Edouard
2013-01-01
Considering a positive portfolio diffusion $X$ with negative drift, we investigate optimal stopping problems of the form $$ \\inf_\\theta \\Esp{f\\left(\\frac{X_\\theta}{\\Sup_{s\\in[0,\\tau]}{X_s}}\\right)}\\;,$$ where $f$ is a non-increasing function, $\\tau$ is the next random time where the portfolio $X$ crosses zero and $\\theta$ is any stopping time smaller than $\\tau$. Hereby, our motivation is the obtention of an optimal selling strategy minimizing the relative distance between the liquidation val...
Risk-Controlled Multiobjective Portfolio Selection Problem Using a Principle of Compromise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Takashi Hasuike
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a multiobjective portfolio selection problem with most probable random distribution derived from current market data and other random distributions of boom and recession under the risk-controlled parameters determined by an investor. The current market data and information include not only historical data but also interpretations of economists’ oral and linguistic information, and hence, the boom and recession are often caused by these nonnumeric data. Therefore, investors need to consider several situations from most probable condition to boom and recession and to avoid the risk less than the target return in each situation. Furthermore, it is generally difficult to set random distributions of these cases exactly. Therefore, a robust-based approach for portfolio selection problems using the only mean values and variances of securities is proposed as a multiobjective programming problem. In addition, an exact algorithm is developed to obtain an explicit optimal portfolio using a principle of compromise.
Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations
Huisman, Ronald; Mahieu, Ronald; Schlichter, Felix
2007-01-01
textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relati...
Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pham, H.
2002-01-01
This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature
Portfolio Optimization of Nanomaterial Use in Clean Energy Technologies.
Moore, Elizabeth A; Babbitt, Callie W; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Moore, Sean T
2018-04-03
While engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly incorporated in diverse applications, risks of ENM adoption remain difficult to predict and mitigate proactively. Current decision-making tools do not adequately account for ENM uncertainties including varying functional forms, unique environmental behavior, economic costs, unknown supply and demand, and upstream emissions. The complexity of the ENM system necessitates a novel approach: in this study, the adaptation of an investment portfolio optimization model is demonstrated for optimization of ENM use in renewable energy technologies. Where a traditional investment portfolio optimization model maximizes return on investment through optimal selection of stock, ENM portfolio optimization maximizes the performance of energy technology systems by optimizing selective use of ENMs. Cumulative impacts of multiple ENM material portfolios are evaluated in two case studies: organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) for renewable energy and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for electric vehicles. Results indicate ENM adoption is dependent on overall performance and variance of the material, resource use, environmental impact, and economic trade-offs. From a sustainability perspective, improved clean energy applications can help extend product lifespans, reduce fossil energy consumption, and substitute ENMs for scarce incumbent materials.
Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process
Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen
2016-12-01
Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.
On the Computation of Optimal Monotone Mean-Variance Portfolios via Truncated Quadratic Utility
Ales Cerný; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Aldo Rustichini
2008-01-01
We report a surprising link between optimal portfolios generated by a special type of variational preferences called divergence preferences (cf. [8]) and optimal portfolios generated by classical expected utility. As a special case we connect optimization of truncated quadratic utility (cf. [2]) to the optimal monotone mean-variance portfolios (cf. [9]), thus simplifying the computation of the latter.
Lorig, Matthew; Sircar, Ronnie
2015-01-01
We study the finite horizon Merton portfolio optimization problem in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Using model coefficient expansion techniques, we derive approximations for the both the value function and the optimal investment strategy. We also analyze the `implied Sharpe ratio' and derive a series approximation for this quantity. The zeroth-order approximation of the value function and optimal investment strategy correspond to those obtained by Merton (1969) when the risky...
Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.
2013-01-01
We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further......, the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations...
Uvarova, Svetlana; Kutsygina, Olga; Smorodina, Elena; Gumba, Khuta
2018-03-01
The effectiveness and sustainability of an enterprise are based on the effectiveness and sustainability of its portfolio of projects. When creating a production program for a construction company based on a portfolio of projects and related to the planning and implementation of initiated organizational and economic changes, the problem of finding the optimal "risk-return" ratio of the program (portfolio of projects) is solved. The article proposes and approves the methodology of forming a portfolio of enterprise projects on the basis of the correspondence principle. Optimization of the portfolio of projects on the criterion of "risk-return" also contributes to the company's sustainability.
Linear versus quadratic portfolio optimization model with transaction cost
Razak, Norhidayah Bt Ab; Kamil, Karmila Hanim; Elias, Siti Masitah
2014-06-01
Optimization model is introduced to become one of the decision making tools in investment. Hence, it is always a big challenge for investors to select the best model that could fulfill their goal in investment with respect to risk and return. In this paper we aims to discuss and compare the portfolio allocation and performance generated by quadratic and linear portfolio optimization models namely of Markowitz and Maximin model respectively. The application of these models has been proven to be significant and popular among others. However transaction cost has been debated as one of the important aspects that should be considered for portfolio reallocation as portfolio return could be significantly reduced when transaction cost is taken into consideration. Therefore, recognizing the importance to consider transaction cost value when calculating portfolio' return, we formulate this paper by using data from Shariah compliant securities listed in Bursa Malaysia. It is expected that, results from this paper will effectively justify the advantage of one model to another and shed some lights in quest to find the best decision making tools in investment for individual investors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Y. Qu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Portfolio optimization problems involve selection of different assets to invest in order to maximize the overall return and minimize the overall risk simultaneously. The complexity of the optimal asset allocation problem increases with an increase in the number of assets available to select from for investing. The optimization problem becomes computationally challenging when there are more than a few hundreds of assets to select from. To reduce the complexity of large-scale portfolio optimization, two asset preselection procedures that consider return and risk of individual asset and pairwise correlation to remove assets that may not potentially be selected into any portfolio are proposed in this paper. With these asset preselection methods, the number of assets considered to be included in a portfolio can be increased to thousands. To test the effectiveness of the proposed methods, a Normalized Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Decomposition (NMOEA/D algorithm and several other commonly used multiobjective evolutionary algorithms are applied and compared. Six experiments with different settings are carried out. The experimental results show that with the proposed methods the simulation time is reduced while return-risk trade-off performances are significantly improved. Meanwhile, the NMOEA/D is able to outperform other compared algorithms on all experiments according to the comparative analysis.
Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra
2016-04-01
Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.
The Optimal Portfolio Selection Model under g-Expectation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Li
2014-01-01
complicated and sophisticated, the optimal solution turns out to be surprisingly simple, the payoff of a portfolio of two binary claims. Also I give the economic meaning of my model and the comparison with that one in the work of Jin and Zhou, 2008.
Consumption-Portfolio Optimization with Recursive Utility in Incomplete Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kraft, Holger; Seifried, Frank Thomas; Steffensen, Mogens
2013-01-01
In an incomplete market, we study the optimal consumption-portfolio decision of an investor with recursive preferences of Epstein–Zin type. Applying a classical dynamic programming approach, we formulate the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and provide a suitable verification theorem...
PORTFOLIO SELECTION OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS PROJECTS USING PROMETHEE V WITH C-OPTIMAL CONCEPT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonatas A. de Almeida
2014-05-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a multicriteria decision model for selecting a portfolio of information system (IS projects, which integrates strategic and organizational view within a multicriteria decision structure. The PROMETHEE V method, based on outranking relations is applied, considering the c-optimal concept in order to overcome some scaling problems found in the classical PROMETHEE V approach. Then, a procedure is proposed in order to make a final analysis of the c-optimal portfolios found as a result of using PROMETHEE V. Also, the organizational view is discussed, including some factors that may influence decision making on IS projects to be included in the portfolio, such as adding the company's strategic vision and technical aspects that demonstrate how IS contributes value to a company's business.
Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach
Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar
2013-06-01
We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.
Commands for financial data management and portfolio optimization
C. Alberto Dorantes
2013-01-01
Several econometric software offer portfolio management tools for practitioners and researchers. For example, MatLab and R offer a great variety of tools for the simulation, optimization, and analysis of financial time series. Stata, together with Mata, offers powerful programming tools for the simulation, optimization, and analysis of financial data. However, related user commands are scarce. In this presentation, commands for online market data collection, data manipulation, and financial a...
More efficient optimization of long-term water supply portfolios
Kirsch, Brian R.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Dillard, Karen E. M.; Kelley, C. T.
2009-03-01
The use of temporary transfers, such as options and leases, has grown as utilities attempt to meet increases in demand while reducing dependence on the expansion of costly infrastructure capacity (e.g., reservoirs). Earlier work has been done to construct optimal portfolios comprising firm capacity and transfers, using decision rules that determine the timing and volume of transfers. However, such work has only focused on the short-term (e.g., 1-year scenarios), which limits the utility of these planning efforts. Developing multiyear portfolios can lead to the exploration of a wider range of alternatives but also increases the computational burden. This work utilizes a coupled hydrologic-economic model to simulate the long-term performance of a city's water supply portfolio. This stochastic model is linked with an optimization search algorithm that is designed to handle the high-frequency, low-amplitude noise inherent in many simulations, particularly those involving expected values. This noise is detrimental to the accuracy and precision of the optimized solution and has traditionally been controlled by investing greater computational effort in the simulation. However, the increased computational effort can be substantial. This work describes the integration of a variance reduction technique (control variate method) within the simulation/optimization as a means of more efficiently identifying minimum cost portfolios. Random variation in model output (i.e., noise) is moderated using knowledge of random variations in stochastic input variables (e.g., reservoir inflows, demand), thereby reducing the computing time by 50% or more. Using these efficiency gains, water supply portfolios are evaluated over a 10-year period in order to assess their ability to reduce costs and adapt to demand growth, while still meeting reliability goals. As a part of the evaluation, several multiyear option contract structures are explored and compared.
Optimal portfolio selection for cashflows with bounded capital at risk
Vyncke, D.; Goovaerts, M.J.; Dhaene, J.L.M.; Vanduffel, S.
2005-01-01
We consider a continuous-time Markowitz type portfolio problem that consists of minimizing the discounted cost of a given cash-fl ow under the constraint of a restricted Capital at Risk. In a Black-Scholes setting, upper and lower bounds are obtained by means of simple analytical expressions that
Portfolio selection problem: a comparison of fuzzy goal programming and linear physical programming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fusun Kucukbay
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Investors have limited budget and they try to maximize their return with minimum risk. Therefore this study aims to deal with the portfolio selection problem. In the study two criteria are considered which are expected return, and risk. In this respect, linear physical programming (LPP technique is applied on Bist 100 stocks to be able to find out the optimum portfolio. The analysis covers the period April 2009- March 2015. This period is divided into two; April 2009-March 2014 and April 2014 – March 2015. April 2009-March 2014 period is used as data to find an optimal solution. April 2014-March 2015 period is used to test the real performance of portfolios. The performance of the obtained portfolio is compared with that obtained from fuzzy goal programming (FGP. Then the performances of both method, LPP and FGP are compared with BIST 100 in terms of their Sharpe Indexes. The findings reveal that LPP for portfolio selection problem is a good alternative to FGP.
Decentralized portfolio management
Coutinho, Paulo; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda
2003-01-01
We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equiva...
Risk-aware multi-armed bandit problem with application to portfolio selection.
Huo, Xiaoguang; Fu, Feng
2017-11-01
Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interest in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem addresses the primary difficulty in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, namely the exploration versus exploitation dilemma, and therefore provides a natural connection to portfolio selection. In this paper, we incorporate risk awareness into the classic multi-armed bandit setting and introduce an algorithm to construct portfolio. Through filtering assets based on the topological structure of the financial market and combining the optimal multi-armed bandit policy with the minimization of a coherent risk measure, we achieve a balance between risk and return.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oliveira, Francisco Alexandre de; Paiva, Anderson Paulo de; Lima, Jose Wanderley Marangon; Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo; Mendes, Rona Rinston Amaury [Federal Univ. of Itajuba, Minas Gerais (Brazil)
2011-01-15
Deregulation of the electricity sector has given rise to several approaches to defining optimal portfolios of energy contracts. Financial tools - requiring substantial adjustments - are usually used to determine risk and return. This article presents a novel approach to adjusting the conditional value at risk (CVaR) metric to the mix of contracts on the energy markets; the approach uses Mixture Design of Experiments (MDE). In this kind of experimental strategy, the design factors are treated as proportions in a mixture system considered quite adequate for treating portfolios in general. Instead of using traditional linear programming, the concept of desirability function is here used to combine the multi-response, nonlinear objective functions for mean with the variance of a specific portfolio obtained through MDE. The maximization of the desirability function is implied in the portfolio optimization, generating an efficient recruitment frontier. This approach offers three main contributions: it includes risk aversion in the optimization routine, it assesses interaction between contracts, and it lessens the computational effort required to solve the constrained nonlinear optimization problem. A case study based on the Brazilian energy market is used to illustrate the proposal. The numerical results verify the proposal's adequacy. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oliveira, Francisco Alexandre de; Paiva, Anderson Paulo de; Lima, Jose Wanderley Marangon; Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo; Mendes, Rona Rinston Amaury
2011-01-01
Deregulation of the electricity sector has given rise to several approaches to defining optimal portfolios of energy contracts. Financial tools - requiring substantial adjustments - are usually used to determine risk and return. This article presents a novel approach to adjusting the conditional value at risk (CVaR) metric to the mix of contracts on the energy markets; the approach uses Mixture Design of Experiments (MDE). In this kind of experimental strategy, the design factors are treated as proportions in a mixture system considered quite adequate for treating portfolios in general. Instead of using traditional linear programming, the concept of desirability function is here used to combine the multi-response, nonlinear objective functions for mean with the variance of a specific portfolio obtained through MDE. The maximization of the desirability function is implied in the portfolio optimization, generating an efficient recruitment frontier. This approach offers three main contributions: it includes risk aversion in the optimization routine, it assesses interaction between contracts, and it lessens the computational effort required to solve the constrained nonlinear optimization problem. A case study based on the Brazilian energy market is used to illustrate the proposal. The numerical results verify the proposal's adequacy. (author)
Modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance when the utility function is quadratic
Sukono, Sidi, Pramono; Bon, Abdul Talib bin; Supian, Sudradjat
2017-03-01
The problems of investing in financial assets are to choose a combination of weighting a portfolio can be maximized return expectations and minimizing the risk. This paper discusses the modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance, when square-shaped utility functions. It is assumed that the asset return has a certain distribution, and the risk of the portfolio is measured using the Value-at-Risk (VaR). So, the process of optimization of the portfolio is done based on the model of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization model for the Mean-VaR done using matrix algebra approach, and the Lagrange multiplier method, as well as Khun-Tucker. The results of the modeling portfolio optimization is in the form of a weighting vector equations depends on the vector mean return vector assets, identities, and matrix covariance between return of assets, as well as a factor in risk tolerance. As an illustration of numeric, analyzed five shares traded on the stock market in Indonesia. Based on analysis of five stocks return data gained the vector of weight composition and graphics of efficient surface of portfolio. Vector composition weighting weights and efficient surface charts can be used as a guide for investors in decisions to invest.
IT PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: MODULARITY PROBLEMS IN A PUBLIC ORGANIZATION
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kristian; Mengiste, Shegaw Anagaw
2012-01-01
As today’s public and private sector organizations heavily rely on Information Technology (IT) to provide faster cycle times and better services, IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. This research adopts engaged scholarship to investigate IT PPM practices...... within a large local government. The investigation applies Modularity theory to analyze rich data from the local government covering several units with quite diverse functions to address the following two questions (1) which modularity problems does a public organization have in its IT PPM practices...... suggest a model addressing the identified problems by organizing IT PPM in three modules connected by three gateways. These results may be used to inform further research into IT PPM and to help managers improve IT PPM practices in public organizations. Keywords: IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM...
Akyer, Hasan; Kalaycı, Can Berk; Aygören, Hakan
2018-01-01
Whileinvestors used to create their portfolios according to traditional portfoliotheory in the past, today modern portfolio approach is widely preferred. Thebasis of the modern portfolio theory was suggested by Harry Markowitz with themean variance model. A greater number of securities in a portfolio is difficultto manage and has an increased transaction cost. Therefore, the number ofsecurities in the portfolio should be restricted. The problem of portfoliooptimization with cardinality constr...
Assessing the Value of Information for Identifying Optimal Floodplain Management Portfolios
Read, L.; Bates, M.; Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.
2014-12-01
Floodplain management is a complex portfolio problem that can be analyzed from an integrated perspective incorporating traditionally structural and nonstructural options. One method to identify effective strategies for preparing, responding to, and recovering from floods is to optimize for a portfolio of temporary (emergency) and permanent floodplain management options. A risk-based optimization approach to this problem assigns probabilities to specific flood events and calculates the associated expected damages. This approach is currently limited by: (1) the assumption of perfect flood forecast information, i.e. implementing temporary management activities according to the actual flood event may differ from optimizing based on forecasted information and (2) the inability to assess system resilience across a range of possible future events (risk-centric approach). Resilience is defined here as the ability of a system to absorb and recover from a severe disturbance or extreme event. In our analysis, resilience is a system property that requires integration of physical, social, and information domains. This work employs a 3-stage linear program to identify the optimal mix of floodplain management options using conditional probabilities to represent perfect and imperfect flood stages (forecast vs. actual events). We assess the value of information in terms of minimizing damage costs for two theoretical cases - urban and rural systems. We use portfolio analysis to explore how the set of optimal management options differs depending on whether the goal is for the system to be risk-adverse to a specified event or resilient over a range of events.
The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization
B. Marasović; S. Pivac; S. V. Vukasović
2015-01-01
Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the pr...
Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures
Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.
2005-01-01
Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity
Optimal portfolio model based on WVAR
Hao, Tianyu
2012-01-01
This article is focused on using a new measurement of risk-- Weighted Value at Risk to develop a new method of constructing initiate from the TVAR solving problem, based on MATLAB software, using the historical simulation method (avoiding income distribution will be assumed to be normal), the results of previous studies also based on, study the U.S. Nasdaq composite index, combining the Simpson formula for the solution of TVAR and its deeply study; then, through the representation of WVAR for...
Numerical approach to optimal portfolio in a power utility regime-switching model
Gyulov, Tihomir B.; Koleva, Miglena N.; Vulkov, Lubin G.
2017-12-01
We consider a system of weakly coupled degenerate semi-linear parabolic equations of optimal portfolio in a regime-switching with power utility function, derived by A.R. Valdez and T. Vargiolu [14]. First, we discuss some basic properties of the solution of this system. Then, we develop and analyze implicit-explicit, flux limited finite difference schemes for the differential problem. Numerical experiments are discussed.
M. Amiri; M. Zandieh; A. Alimi
2012-01-01
Mutual fund is one of the most popular techniques for many people to invest their funds where a professional fund manager invests people's funds based on some special predefined objectives; therefore, performance evaluation of mutual funds is an important problem. This paper proposes a multi-objective portfolio optimization to offer asset allocation. The proposed model clusters mutual funds with two methods based on six characteristics including rate of return, variance, semivariance, turnove...
Orito, Yukiko; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Tsujimura, Yasuhiro; Kambayashi, Yasushi
The portfolio optimizations are to determine the proportion-weighted combination in the portfolio in order to achieve investment targets. This optimization is one of the multi-dimensional combinatorial optimizations and it is difficult for the portfolio constructed in the past period to keep its performance in the future period. In order to keep the good performances of portfolios, we propose the extended information ratio as an objective function, using the information ratio, beta, prime beta, or correlation coefficient in this paper. We apply the simulated annealing (SA) to optimize the portfolio employing the proposed ratio. For the SA, we make the neighbor by the operation that changes the structure of the weights in the portfolio. In the numerical experiments, we show that our portfolios keep the good performances when the market trend of the future period becomes different from that of the past period.
Uvarova Svetlana; Kutsygina Olga; Smorodina Elena; Gumba Khuta
2018-01-01
The effectiveness and sustainability of an enterprise are based on the effectiveness and sustainability of its portfolio of projects. When creating a production program for a construction company based on a portfolio of projects and related to the planning and implementation of initiated organizational and economic changes, the problem of finding the optimal "risk-return" ratio of the program (portfolio of projects) is solved. The article proposes and approves the methodology of forming a por...
Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio
Feng, Yu; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Yi-Cheng
2011-05-01
The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return distributions and returns generated by a GARCH process. Finally we study the case when investment is rebalanced only partially and show that this strategy can improve the investment long-term growth rate more than optimization of the rebalancing period.
Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment
Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.
2014-01-01
NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.
A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns
Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng
2009-11-01
Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.
Time-Consistent Strategies for a Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huiling Wu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available It remained prevalent in the past years to obtain the precommitment strategies for Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio optimization problems, but not much is known about their time-consistent strategies. This paper takes a step to investigate the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategies for a multiperiod mean-variance portfolio selection problem. Under the assumption that the risk aversion is, respectively, a constant and a function of current wealth level, we obtain the explicit expressions for the time-consistent Nash equilibrium strategy and the equilibrium value function. Many interesting properties of the time-consistent results are identified through numerical sensitivity analysis and by comparing them with the classical pre-commitment solutions.
Optimal Energy Mix with Renewable Portfolio Standards in Korea
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zong Woo Geem
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Korea is a heavily energy-dependent country whose primary energy consumption ranks ninth in the world. However, at the same time, it promised to reduce carbon emission and planned to use more renewable energy. Thus, the objective of this study is to propose an optimal energy mix planning model in electricity generation from various energy sources, such as gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and biomass, which considers more renewable and sustainable portions by imposing governmental regulation named renewable portfolio standard (RPS. This optimization model minimizes various costs such as construction cost, operation and management cost, fuel cost, and carbon emission cost while satisfying minimal demand requirement, maximal annual installation potential, and renewable portfolio standard constraints. Results showed that this optimization model could successfully generate energy mix plan from 2012 to 2030 while minimizing the objective costs and satisfying all the constraints. Therefore, this optimization model contributes more efficient and objective method to the complex decision-making process with a sustainability option. This proposed energy mix model is expected to be applied not only to Korea, but also to many other countries in the future for more economical planning of their electricity generation while affecting climate change less.
Liu, Qingshan; Guo, Zhishan; Wang, Jun
2012-02-01
In this paper, a one-layer recurrent neural network is proposed for solving pseudoconvex optimization problems subject to linear equality and bound constraints. Compared with the existing neural networks for optimization (e.g., the projection neural networks), the proposed neural network is capable of solving more general pseudoconvex optimization problems with equality and bound constraints. Moreover, it is capable of solving constrained fractional programming problems as a special case. The convergence of the state variables of the proposed neural network to achieve solution optimality is guaranteed as long as the designed parameters in the model are larger than the derived lower bounds. Numerical examples with simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed neural network. In addition, an application for dynamic portfolio optimization is discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fathi Abid
2014-05-01
Full Text Available This paper applies the mean-variance portfolio optimization (PO approach and the stochastic dominance (SD test to examine preferences for international diversification versus domestic diversification from American investors’ viewpoints. Our PO results imply that the domestic diversification strategy dominates the international diversification strategy at a lower risk level and the reverse is true at a higher risk level. Our SD analysis shows that there is no arbitrage opportunity between international and domestic stock markets; domestically diversified portfolios with smaller risk dominate internationally diversified portfolios with larger risk and vice versa; and at the same risk level, there is no difference between the domestically and internationally diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, we cannot find any domestically diversified portfolios that stochastically dominate all internationally diversified portfolios, but we find some internationally diversified portfolios with small risk that dominate all the domestically diversified portfolios.
Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy : Evidence from Finnish Stocks
Savage, Akinwunmi
2010-01-01
Portfolio rebalancing is an established concept in portfolio management and investing generally. Assets within a portfolio have different return and risk prospects, and this inevitably leads them to drift away from their initial allocation weights overtime. Portfolio rebalancing is arguably the only method by which such assets can be reset to their initial weights, thus ensuring the portfolio reflects the risk appetite of the investor. Like many other concepts and practices in finance, portfo...
Optimization of a dynamic supply portfolio considering risks and discount’s constraints
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masoud Rabbani
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose: Nowadays finding reliable suppliers in the global supply chains has become so important for success, because reliable suppliers would lead to a reliable supply and besides that orders of customer are met effectively . Yet, there is little empirical evidence to support this view, hence the purpose of this paper is to fill this need by considering risk in order to find the optimum supply portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes a multi objective model for the supplier selection portfolio problem that uses conditional value at risk (CVaR criteria to control the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies via scenario analysis. Also we consider discount’s constraints which are common assumptions in supplier selection problems. The proposed approach is capable of determining the optimal supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk and minimizing conditional value-at-risk. In this study the Reservation Level driven Tchebycheff Procedure (RLTP which is one of the reference point methods, is used to solve small size of our model through coding in GAMS. As our model is NP-hard; a meta-heuristic approach, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA which is one of the most efficient methods for optimizing multi objective models, is applied to solve large scales of our model. Findings and Originality/value: In order to find a dynamic supply portfolio, we developed a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP model which contains two objectives. One objective minimizes the cost and the other minimizes the risks of delayed, disrupted and defected supplies. CVaR is used as the risk controlling method which emphases on low-probability, high-consequence events. Discount option as a common offer from suppliers is also implanted in the proposed model. Our findings show that the proposed model can help in optimization of a dynamic supplier selection portfolio with controlling the corresponding risks for large scales of real word
An Agent-Based Co-Evolutionary Multi-Objective Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rafał Dreżewski
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Algorithms based on the process of natural evolution are widely used to solve multi-objective optimization problems. In this paper we propose the agent-based co-evolutionary algorithm for multi-objective portfolio optimization. The proposed technique is compared experimentally to the genetic algorithm, co-evolutionary algorithm and a more classical approach—the trend-following algorithm. During the experiments historical data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange is used in order to assess the performance of the compared algorithms. Finally, we draw some conclusions from these experiments, showing the strong and weak points of all the techniques.
Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.
Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro
2016-08-01
The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL.
Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Sousa, Tiago
2014-01-01
Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors......, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.......’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system...... for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method...
The current account as a dynamic portfolio choice problem
Didier, Tatiana; Lowenkron, Alexandre
2009-01-01
The current account can be understood as the outcome of investment decisions made by domestic and foreign investors. These decisions can be decomposed into a portfolio rebalancing and a portfolio growth component. This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of portfolio rebalancing for the dynamics of the current account. The authors evaluate the predictions of a partial-equil...
The Optimal Allocation for Capital Preservation: an Evidence Australian Portfolio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Riznaldi Akbar
2018-05-01
Full Text Available This study analyzes optimal asset mix for Australian portfolios with the main investment objective for capital preservation. An alternative measure of risk of annual maximum drawdown has been used to reflect investor preference for capital preservation as opposed to conventional risk measure of standard deviation and variance. The contribution of the study is two folds. First, this study has put different perspective to look at portfolio risk in the view of capital preservation. Second, the optimal weight for asset class mix that minimizes annual maximum drawdown has been analyzed for the case of Australian market. The results suggest that for capital preservation, investors should expect lower returns and need to put a greater allocation on less risky assets such as cash or bond. To this end, cash and bond have provided stable long term annual returns along with contained level of annual maximum drawdowns. In contrast, when investors demand higher expected return, they should increase asset allocation into stocks (equities market at the expense of higher maximum drawdowns. Bahasa Indonesia Abstrak: Studi ini menganalisis bauran aset optimal untuk portofolio Australia dengan tujuan investasi utama untuk pelestarian modal. Ukuran alternatif risiko penarikan maksimum tahunan telah digunakan untuk mencerminkan preferensi investor untuk pelestarian modal dibandingkan dengan ukuran risiko konvensional standar deviasi dan varians. Kontribusi dari penelitian ini adalah dua lipatan. Pertama, penelitian ini telah menempatkan perspektif yang berbeda untuk melihat risiko portofolio dalam pandangan pelestarian modal. Kedua, bobot optimal untuk campuran kelas aset yang meminimalkan penarikan maksimum tahunan telah dianalisis untuk kasus pasar Australia. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa untuk pelestarian modal, investor harus mengharapkan pengembalian yang lebih rendah dan perlu menempatkan alokasi yang lebih besar pada aset yang kurang berisiko seperti uang tunai
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yongyi Shou
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A multiagent evolutionary algorithm is proposed to solve the resource-constrained project portfolio selection and scheduling problem. The proposed algorithm has a dual level structure. In the upper level a set of agents make decisions to select appropriate project portfolios. Each agent selects its project portfolio independently. The neighborhood competition operator and self-learning operator are designed to improve the agent’s energy, that is, the portfolio profit. In the lower level the selected projects are scheduled simultaneously and completion times are computed to estimate the expected portfolio profit. A priority rule-based heuristic is used by each agent to solve the multiproject scheduling problem. A set of instances were generated systematically from the widely used Patterson set. Computational experiments confirmed that the proposed evolutionary algorithm is effective for the resource-constrained project portfolio selection and scheduling problem.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEAN-VARIANCE AND MEAN-CVAR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Panna Miskolczi
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Everybody heard already that one should not expect high returns without high risk, or one should not expect safety without low returns. The goal of portfolio theory is to find the balance between maximizing the return and minimizing the risk. To do so we have to first understand and measure the risk. Naturally a good risk measure has to satisfy several properties - in theory and in practise. Markowitz suggested to use the variance as a risk measure in portfolio theory. This led to the so called mean-variance model - for which Markowitz received the Nobel Prize in 1990. The model has been criticized because it is well suited for elliptical distributions but it may lead to incorrect conclusions in the case of non-elliptical distributions. Since then many risk measures have been introduced, of which the Value at Risk (VaR is the most widely used in the recent years. Despite of the widespread use of the Value at Risk there are some fundamental problems with it. It does not satisfy the subadditivity property and it ignores the severity of losses in the far tail of the profit-and-loss (P&L distribution. Moreover, its non-convexity makes VaR impossible to use in optimization problems. To come over these issues the Expected Shortfall (ES as a coherent risk measure was developed. Expected Shortfall is also called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR. Compared to Value at Risk, ES is more sensitive to the tail behaviour of the P&L distribution function. In the first part of the paper I state the definition of these three risk measures. In the second part I deal with my main question: What is happening if we replace the variance with the Expected Shortfall in the portfolio optimization process. Do we have different optimal portfolios as a solution? And thus, does the solution suggests to decide differently in the two cases? To answer to these questions I analyse seven Hungarian stock exchange companies. First I use the mean-variance portfolio optimization model
Towards resiliency with micro-grids: Portfolio optimization and investment under uncertainty
Gharieh, Kaveh
Energy security and sustained supply of power are critical for community welfare and economic growth. In the face of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions which can result in power grid outage, the value of micro-grids to improve the communities' power reliability and resiliency is becoming more important. Micro-grids capability to operate in islanded mode in stressed-out conditions, dramatically decreases the economic loss of critical infrastructure in power shortage occasions. More wide-spread participation of micro-grids in the wholesale energy market in near future, makes the development of new investment models necessary. However, market and price risks in short term and long term along with risk factors' impacts shall be taken into consideration in development of new investment models. This work proposes a set of models and tools to address different problems associated with micro-grid assets including optimal portfolio selection, investment and financing in both community and a sample critical infrastructure (i.e. wastewater treatment plant) levels. The models account for short-term operational volatilities and long-term market uncertainties. A number of analytical methodologies and financial concepts have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models as follows. (1) Capital budgeting planning and portfolio optimization models with Monte Carlo stochastic scenario generation are applied to derive the optimal investment decision for a portfolio of micro-grid assets considering risk factors and multiple sources of uncertainties. (2) Real Option theory, Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization techniques are applied to obtain optimal modularized investment decisions for hydrogen tri-generation systems in wastewater treatment facilities, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. (3) Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing concept coupled with investment horizon approach are applied to estimate public and private
Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.
2016-01-01
as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types......, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology......, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market...
2016-09-01
PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION by Jason A. Schwartz...PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...describing how public sector organizations can implement a research and development (R&D) portfolio optimization strategy to maximize the cost
φq-field theory for portfolio optimization: “fat tails” and nonlinear correlations
Sornette, D.; Simonetti, P.; Andersen, J. V.
2000-08-01
Physics and finance are both fundamentally based on the theory of random walks (and their generalizations to higher dimensions) and on the collective behavior of large numbers of correlated variables. The archetype examplifying this situation in finance is the portfolio optimization problem in which one desires to diversify on a set of possibly dependent assets to optimize the return and minimize the risks. The standard mean-variance solution introduced by Markovitz and its subsequent developments is basically a mean-field Gaussian solution. It has severe limitations for practical applications due to the strongly non-Gaussian structure of distributions and the nonlinear dependence between assets. Here, we present in details a general analytical characterization of the distribution of returns for a portfolio constituted of assets whose returns are described by an arbitrary joint multivariate distribution. In this goal, we introduce a non-linear transformation that maps the returns onto Gaussian variables whose covariance matrix provides a new measure of dependence between the non-normal returns, generalizing the covariance matrix into a nonlinear covariance matrix. This nonlinear covariance matrix is chiseled to the specific fat tail structure of the underlying marginal distributions, thus ensuring stability and good conditioning. The portfolio distribution is then obtained as the solution of a mapping to a so-called φq field theory in particle physics, of which we offer an extensive treatment using Feynman diagrammatic techniques and large deviation theory, that we illustrate in details for multivariate Weibull distributions. The interaction (non-mean field) structure in this field theory is a direct consequence of the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of asset price returns. We find that minimizing the portfolio variance (i.e. the relatively “small” risks) may often increase the large risks, as measured by higher normalized cumulants. Extensive
Discrete Analysis of Portfolio Selection with Optimal Stopping Time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jianfeng Liang
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Most of the investments in practice are carried out without certain horizons. There are many factors to drive investment to a stop. In this paper, we consider a portfolio selection policy with market-related stopping time. Particularly, we assume that the investor exits the market once his wealth reaches a given investment target or falls below a bankruptcy threshold. Our objective is to minimize the expected time when the investment target is obtained, at the same time, we guarantee the probability that bankruptcy happens is no larger than a given level. We formulate the problem as a mix integer linear programming model and make analysis of the model by using a numerical example.
Enhanced index tracking modeling in portfolio optimization with mixed-integer programming z approach
Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Ismail, Hamizun bin
2014-09-01
Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of portfolio management in stock market investment. Enhanced index tracking aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate excess return over the return achieved by the stock market index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using mixed-integer programming model which adopts regression approach in order to generate higher portfolio mean return than stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of 24 component stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2012. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio of mixed-integer programming model is able to generate higher mean return than FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index return with only selecting 30% out of the total stock market index components.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Amiri
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Mutual fund is one of the most popular techniques for many people to invest their funds where a professional fund manager invests people's funds based on some special predefined objectives; therefore, performance evaluation of mutual funds is an important problem. This paper proposes a multi-objective portfolio optimization to offer asset allocation. The proposed model clusters mutual funds with two methods based on six characteristics including rate of return, variance, semivariance, turnover rate, Treynor index and Sharpe index. Semivariance is used as a downside risk measure. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy variables for return rate and semivariance. A multi-objective fuzzy mean-semivariance portfolio optimization model is implemented and fuzzy programming technique is adopted to solve the resulted problem. The proposed model of this paper has gathered the information of mutual fund traded on Nasdaq from 2007 to 2009 and Pareto optimal solutions are obtained considering different weights for objective functions. The results of asset allocation, rate of return and risk of each cluster are also determined and they are compared with the results of two clustering methods.
Choosing an Optimal e-Portfolio System for the Institution
YAMAMOTO, Toshiyuki
2010-01-01
Implementing an e-Portfolio system to enhance educational processes and outcomes has been becoming a hot issue among the Japanese universities that are ambitious in resetting their mission statements. In such universities, defining purposes, clearly stating what to be focused, learning processes, and expected outcomes are the critical issues in the development of their original e-Portfolio system. However, not all institutions are aware that e-Portfolio has advantages and disadvantages. One o...
Analysis of the rebalancing frequency in log-optimal portfolio selection
Kuhn, Daniel; Luenberger, David G.
2010-01-01
In a dynamic investment situation, the right timing of portfolio revisions and adjustments is essential to sustain long-term growth. A high rebalancing frequency reduces the portfolio performance in the presence of transaction costs, whereas a low rebalancing frequency entails a static investment strategy that hardly reacts to changing market conditions. This article studies a family of portfolio problems in a Black-Scholes type economy which depend parametrically on the rebalancing frequency...
Optimization of revenues from a distributed generation portfolio: a case study
Geysen, D.; Kessels, K.; Hommelberg, M.; Ghijsen, M.; Tielemans, Y.; Vinck, K.
2011-01-01
Many companies are investing in energy production from renewable energy sources and are looking at ways to optimize their portfolio performance. The case study under consideration aims at maximizing the revenues from such a distributed energy generation portfolio, consisting of gas engines and a PV
J. Daníelsson (Jón); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); C.G. de Vries (Casper); X. Yang (Xiaoguang)
2001-01-01
textabstractWe derive, in a complete markets environment, an investor's optimal portfolio allocation subject to both a budget constraint and a probabilistic risk constraint. We demonstrate that the set of feasible portfolios need not be connected or convex, while the number of local optima increases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yen Sun
2010-05-01
Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beurskens, Luuk (ECN-Energy Research Centre of the Netherland); Jansen, Jaap C. (ECN-Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands); Awerbuch, Shimon Ph.D. (.University of Sussex, Brighton, UK); Drennen, Thomas E.
2005-09-01
Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem. Investors commonly evaluate such problems using portfolio theory to manage risk and maximize portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. Energy planners need to similarly abandon their reliance on traditional, ''least-cost'' stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy sources on the basis of their portfolio cost--their cost contribution relative to their risk contribution to a mix of generating assets. This report describes essential portfolio-theory ideas and discusses their application in the Western US region. The memo illustrates how electricity-generating mixes can benefit from additional shares of geothermal and other renewables. Compared to fossil-dominated mixes, efficient portfolios reduce generating cost while including greater renewables shares in the mix. This enhances energy security. Though counter-intuitive, the idea that adding more costly geothermal can actually reduce portfolio-generating cost is consistent with basic finance theory. An important implication is that in dynamic and uncertain environments, the relative value of generating technologies must be determined not by evaluating alternative resources, but by evaluating alternative resource portfolios. The optimal results for the Western US Region indicate that compared to the EIA target mixes, there exist generating mixes with larger geothermal shares at equal-or-lower expected cost and risk.
A new enhanced index tracking model in portfolio optimization with sum weighted approach
Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Hoe, Lam Weng
2017-04-01
Index tracking is a portfolio management which aims to construct the optimal portfolio to achieve similar return with the benchmark index return at minimum tracking error without purchasing all the stocks that make up the index. Enhanced index tracking is an improved portfolio management which aims to generate higher portfolio return than the benchmark index return besides minimizing the tracking error. The objective of this paper is to propose a new enhanced index tracking model with sum weighted approach to improve the existing index tracking model for tracking the benchmark Technology Index in Malaysia. The optimal portfolio composition and performance of both models are determined and compared in terms of portfolio mean return, tracking error and information ratio. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio of the proposed model is able to generate higher mean return than the benchmark index at minimum tracking error. Besides that, the proposed model is able to outperform the existing model in tracking the benchmark index. The significance of this study is to propose a new enhanced index tracking model with sum weighted apporach which contributes 67% improvement on the portfolio mean return as compared to the existing model.
Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations
R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald); F. Schlichter (Felix)
2007-01-01
textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to
Characteristics of Omega-Optimized Portfolios at Different Levels of Threshold Returns
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renaldas Vilkancas
2014-12-01
Full Text Available There is little literature considering effects that the loss-gain threshold used for dividing good and bad outcomes by all downside (upside risk measures has on portfolio optimization and performance. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of portfolios optimized with respect to the Omega function developed by Keating and Shadwick at different levels of the threshold returns. The most common choices of the threshold values used in various Omega studies cover the risk-free rate and the average market return or simply a zero return, even though the inventors of this measure for risk warn that “using the values of the Omega function at particular points can be critically misleading” and that “only the entire Omega function contains information on distribution”. The obtained results demonstrate the importance of the selected values of the threshold return on portfolio performance – higher levels of the threshold lead to an increase in portfolio returns, albeit at the expense of a higher risk. In fact, within a certain threshold interval, Omega-optimized portfolios achieved the highest net return, compared with all other strategies for portfolio optimization using three different test datasets. However, beyond a certain limit, high threshold values will actually start hurting portfolio performance while meta-heuristic optimizers typically are able to produce a solution at any level of the threshold, and the obtained results would most likely be financially meaningless.
2-Phase NSGA II: An Optimized Reward and Risk Measurements Algorithm in Portfolio Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seyedeh Elham Eftekharian
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Portfolio optimization is a serious challenge for financial engineering and has pulled down special attention among investors. It has two objectives: to maximize the reward that is calculated by expected return and to minimize the risk. Variance has been considered as a risk measure. There are many constraints in the world that ultimately lead to a non–convex search space such as cardinality constraint. In conclusion, parametric quadratic programming could not be applied and it seems essential to apply multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA. In this paper, a new efficient multi-objective portfolio optimization algorithm called 2-phase NSGA II algorithm is developed and the results of this algorithm are compared with the NSGA II algorithm. It was found that 2-phase NSGA II significantly outperformed NSGA II algorithm.
Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.
Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir
2017-01-01
The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.
Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oskar Marko
Full Text Available The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.
Portfolio size as funktion of the premium: modeling and optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Taksar, Michael I
An insurance company has a large number N of potential customers characterized by i.i.d. r.v.'s A1,…,AN giving the arrival rates of claims. Customers are risk averse, and a customer accepts an offered premium p according to his A-value. The modeling further involves a discount rate d>r of customers......, where r is the risk-free interest rate. Based on calculations of the customers' present values of the alternative strategies of insuring and not insuring, the portfolio size n(p) is derived, and also the rate of claims from the insured customers is given. Further, the value of p which is optimal...... for minimizing the ruin probability is derived in a diffusion approximation to the Cramér-Lundberg risk process with an added liability rate L of the company. The solution involves the Lambert W function. Similar discussion is given for extensions involving customers having only partial information...
A Monte Carlo simulation technique to determine the optimal portfolio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hassan Ghodrati
2014-03-01
Full Text Available During the past few years, there have been several studies for portfolio management. One of the primary concerns on any stock market is to detect the risk associated with various assets. One of the recognized methods in order to measure, to forecast, and to manage the existing risk is associated with Value at Risk (VaR, which draws much attention by financial institutions in recent years. VaR is a method for recognizing and evaluating of risk, which uses the standard statistical techniques and the method has been used in other fields, increasingly. The present study has measured the value at risk of 26 companies from chemical industry in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2009-2011 using the simulation technique of Monte Carlo with 95% confidence level. The used variability in the present study has been the daily return resulted from the stock daily price change. Moreover, the weight of optimal investment has been determined using a hybrid model called Markowitz and Winker model in each determined stocks. The results showed that the maximum loss would not exceed from 1259432 Rials at 95% confidence level in future day.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duncan, T.; Pasik Duncan, B.; Stettner, L.
2011-01-01
A continuous time long run growth optimal or optimal logarithmic utility portfolio with proportional transaction costs consisting of a fixed proportional cost and a cost proportional to the volume of transaction is considered. The asset prices are modeled as exponent of diffusion with jumps whose parameters depend on a finite state Markov process of economic factors. An obligatory portfolio diversification is introduced, accordingly to which it is required to invest at least a fixed small portion of our wealth in each asset.
An Empirical Study on Hedge Fund Portfolio Optimization, Mean-Risk Based Approaches
Li, Yang
2011-01-01
Abstract This research attempts to investigate the divergences between the Mean-Variance and the Mean-CVaR portfolio optimization methods in examining various assets classes, such as equities, bonds, and especially hedge funds. In order to get a thorough understanding of hedge funds facts and available optimization techniques, relevant literatures are carefully reviewed and incorporated into later stage computer modelling. By constructing three hypothetical portfolios, including traditiona...
Mean--variance portfolio optimization when means and covariances are unknown
Tze Leung Lai; Haipeng Xing; Zehao Chen
2011-01-01
Markowitz's celebrated mean--variance portfolio optimization theory assumes that the means and covariances of the underlying asset returns are known. In practice, they are unknown and have to be estimated from historical data. Plugging the estimates into the efficient frontier that assumes known parameters has led to portfolios that may perform poorly and have counter-intuitive asset allocation weights; this has been referred to as the "Markowitz optimization enigma." After reviewing differen...
Designing a portfolio management programme to optimize cash-flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fassom, D.
1996-01-01
The design and implementation of any portfolio management programme must, by definition, be tailored to the drivers and particular objectives of the company owning the assets. This paper will concentrate on one of the most important driving forces, namely managing cash-flow. Five key steps are required to achieve an effective portfolio management programme: 1. establish targets/goals; 2. describe and value the assets in your company's portfolio; 3. identify and catalogue potential 'customers'; 4. construct appropriate deal structures and other strategies to achieve your targets; 5. work hard and do deals. (author)
Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios.
Brodie, Joshua; Daubechies, Ingrid; De Mol, Christine; Giannone, Domenico; Loris, Ignace
2009-07-28
We consider the problem of portfolio selection within the classical Markowitz mean-variance framework, reformulated as a constrained least-squares regression problem. We propose to add to the objective function a penalty proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the portfolio weights. This penalty regularizes (stabilizes) the optimization problem, encourages sparse portfolios (i.e., portfolios with only few active positions), and allows accounting for transaction costs. Our approach recovers as special cases the no-short-positions portfolios, but does allow for short positions in limited number. We implement this methodology on two benchmark data sets constructed by Fama and French. Using only a modest amount of training data, we construct portfolios whose out-of-sample performance, as measured by Sharpe ratio, is consistently and significantly better than that of the naïve evenly weighted portfolio.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mashayekh, Salman; Stadler, Michael; Cardoso, Gonçalo; Heleno, Miguel
2017-01-01
Highlights: • This paper presents a MILP model for optimal design of multi-energy microgrids. • Our microgrid design includes optimal technology portfolio, placement, and operation. • Our model includes microgrid electrical power flow and heat transfer equations. • The case study shows advantages of our model over aggregate single-node approaches. • The case study shows the accuracy of the integrated linearized power flow model. - Abstract: Optimal microgrid design is a challenging problem, especially for multi-energy microgrids with electricity, heating, and cooling loads as well as sources, and multiple energy carriers. To address this problem, this paper presents an optimization model formulated as a mixed-integer linear program, which determines the optimal technology portfolio, the optimal technology placement, and the associated optimal dispatch, in a microgrid with multiple energy types. The developed model uses a multi-node modeling approach (as opposed to an aggregate single-node approach) that includes electrical power flow and heat flow equations, and hence, offers the ability to perform optimal siting considering physical and operational constraints of electrical and heating/cooling networks. The new model is founded on the existing optimization model DER-CAM, a state-of-the-art decision support tool for microgrid planning and design. The results of a case study that compares single-node vs. multi-node optimal design for an example microgrid show the importance of multi-node modeling. It has been shown that single-node approaches are not only incapable of optimal DER placement, but may also result in sub-optimal DER portfolio, as well as underestimation of investment costs.
Evaluating dynamic covariance matrix forecasting and portfolio optimization
Sendstad, Lars Hegnes; Holten, Dag Martin
2012-01-01
In this thesis we have evaluated the covariance forecasting ability of the simple moving average, the exponential moving average and the dynamic conditional correlation models. Overall we found that a dynamic portfolio can gain significant improvements by implementing a multivariate GARCH forecast. We further divided the global investment universe into sectors and regions in order to investigate the relative portfolio performance of several asset allocation strategies with both variance and c...
A conceptual framework for economic optimization of an animal health surveillance portfolio.
Guo, X; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W
2016-04-01
Decision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders' preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.
Qaradaghi, Mohammed
Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and
Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahmoud Shakouri
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in Supplementary materials. The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems. Keywords: Community solar, Photovoltaic system, Portfolio theory, Energy optimization, Electricity volatility
Soeryana, E.; Fadhlina, N.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.
2017-01-01
Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on logarithmic utility function. Non constant mean analysed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analysed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyse some Islamic stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each Islamic stock analysed.
Investments Portfolio Optimal Planning for industrial assets management: Method and Tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lonchampt, Jerome; Fessart, Karine
2012-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to describe the method and tool dedicated to optimize investments planning for industrial assets. These investments may either be preventive maintenance tasks, asset enhancement or logistic investment such as spare parts purchase. The three methodological points to investigate in such an issue are: 1. The measure of the profitability of a portfolio of investments 2. The selection and planning of an optimal set of investments 3. The measure of the risk of a portfolio of investments The measure of the profitability of a set of investments in the IPOP (registered) tool is synthesised in the Net Present Value indicator. The NPV is the sum of the differences of discounted cash flows (direct costs, forced outages...) between the situations with and without a given investment. These cash flows are calculated through a pseudo-markov reliability model representing independently the components of the industrial asset and the spare parts inventories. The component model has been widely discussed over the years but the spare part model is a new one based on some approximations that will be discussed. This model, referred as the NPV function, takes for input an investments portfolio and gives its NPV. The second issue is to optimize the NPV. If all investments were independent, this optimization would be an easy calculation, unfortunately there are two sources of dependency. The first one is introduced by the spare part model, as if components are indeed independent in their reliability model, the fact that several components use the same inventory induces a dependency. The second dependency comes from economic, technical or logistic constraints, such as a global maintenance budget limit or a precedence constraint between two investments, making the aggregation of individual optimum not necessary feasible. The algorithm used to solve such a difficult optimization problem is a genetic algorithm. After a description of the features of the software a
Optimal Premium as a Function of the Deductible: Customer Analysis and Portfolio Characteristics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julie Thøgersen
2016-11-01
Full Text Available An insurance company offers an insurance contract ( p , K , consisting of a premium p and a deductible K. In this paper, we consider the problem of choosing the premium optimally as a function of the deductible. The insurance company is facing a market of N customers, each characterized by their personal claim frequency, α, and risk aversion, β. When a customer is offered an insurance contract, she/he will, based on these characteristics, choose whether or not to insure. The decision process of the customer is analyzed in detail. Since the customer characteristics are unknown to the company, it models them as i.i.d. random variables; A 1 , … , A N for the claim frequencies and B 1 , … , B N for the risk aversions. Depending on the distributions of A i and B i , expressions for the portfolio size n ( p ; K ∈ [ 0 , N ] and average claim frequency α ( p ; K in the portfolio are obtained. Knowing these, the company can choose the premium optimally, mainly by minimizing the ruin probability.
Hierarchical Portfolio Management: Theory and Applications
H. Ning (Haikun)
2007-01-01
textabstractUnder his own preference, how should an investor coordinate the asset managers such that his aggregated portfolio is optimized? The efficiency of each managed sub portfolio and the aggregation of all the sub portfolios are the 2 main underlying problems considered in this dissertation.
Modern Portfolio Theory: Some Main Results
Müller, Heinz H.
2017-01-01
This article summarizes some main results in modern portfolio theory. First, the Markowitz approach is presented. Then the capital asset pricing model is derived and its empirical testability is discussed. Afterwards Neumann-Morgenstern utility theory is applied to the portfolio problem. Finally, it is shown how optimal risk allocation in an economy may lead to portfolio insurance
Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz
Mainik, Georg; Mitov, Georgi; Rüschendorf, Ludger
2015-01-01
Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the probability of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, our study seems to be the first application of extreme value techniques in portfolio management on a large scale. The primary aim of our investigation is the potential of ERI in p...
Portfolio optimization using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucas Pelegrin da Silva
Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the efficiency of traditional portfolio optimization models when the returns of financial assets are highly volatile, e.g., in financial crises periods. We also develop alternative optimization models that combine the mean absolute deviation (MAD and the conditional value at risk (CVaR, attempting to mitigate inefficient, low return and/or high-risk, portfolios. Three methodologies for estimating the probability of the asset’s historical returns are also compared. By using historical data on the Brazilian stock market between 2004 and 2013, we analyze the efficiency of the proposed approaches. Our results show that the traditional models provide portfolios with higher returns, but our propose model are able to generate lower risk portfolios, which might be more attractive in volatile markets. In addition, we find that models that do not use equiprobable scenarios produce better results in terms of return and risk.
Automated Portfolio Optimization Based on a New Test for Structural Breaks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tobias Berens
2014-04-01
Full Text Available We present a completely automated optimization strategy which combines the classical Markowitz mean-variance portfolio theory with a recently proposed test for structural breaks in covariance matrices. With respect to equity portfolios, global minimum-variance optimizations, which base solely on the covariance matrix, yield considerable results in previous studies. However, financial assets cannot be assumed to have a constant covariance matrix over longer periods of time. Hence, we estimate the covariance matrix of the assets by respecting potential change points. The resulting approach resolves the issue of determining a sample for parameter estimation. Moreover, we investigate if this approach is also appropriate for timing the reoptimizations. Finally, we apply the approach to two datasets and compare the results to relevant benchmark techniques by means of an out-of-sample study. It is shown that the new approach outperforms equally weighted portfolios and plain minimum-variance portfolios on average.
The rule of nuclear power in the base-load portfolio optimization process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Desiata, L.; D'Alberti, F.
2007-01-01
The pursuit of optimal portfolios, maximizing long-term profitability, is the main strategic challenge faced by electricity producers nowadays. Investment decisions, worth billions of euros, are affected by spot factors (such as current fuel prices volatility) that often lead to unbalanced generation mixes. Our analysis presents a statistical-financial approach that highlights the role of nuclear within the base-load portfolio optimisation process [it
Portfolio Optimization: A Combined Regime-Switching and Black–Litterman Model
Edwin O. Fischer; Immanuel Seidl
2013-01-01
Traditionally portfolios are optimized with the single-regime Markowitz model using the volatility as the risk measure and the historical return as the expected return. This study shows the effects that a regime-switching framework and alternative risk measures (modified value at risk and conditional value at risk) and return measures (CAPM estimates and Black–Litterman estimates) have on the asset allocation and on the absolute and relative performance of portfolios. It demonstrates that the...
Optimal Hedge Tracking Portfolios in a Limit Order Book
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ellersgaard, Simon; Tegner, Martin
2017-01-01
-optimizing option seller, who hedges his position using a combination of limit and market orders, while facing certain constraints as to how far he can deviate from a targeted (Bachelierian) delta strategy. By translating the control problem into a three-dimensional Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman quasi......-variational inequality (HJB QVI) and solving numerically, we are able to deduce optimal limit order quotes alongside the regions surrounding the targeted delta surface in which the option seller must place limit orders vis-à-vis the more aggressive market orders. Our scheme is shown to be monotone, stable......, and consistent and thence, modulo a comparison principle, convergent in the viscosity sense....
A behavioural approach to financial portfolio selection problem: an empirical study using heuristics
Grishina, Nina
2014-01-01
This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University The behaviourally based portfolio selection problem with investor's loss aversion and risk aversion biases in portfolio choice under uncertainty are studied. The main results of this work are developed heuristic approaches for the prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory models proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 and 1992 as well as an empirical comparative analysis of these models ...
OPTIMIZATION OF EXPORT PORTFOLIO CURRENCY STRUCTURE OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. A. Коrоbiyna
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Optimization of currency portfolio structure of export industrial enterprises in the Republic of Belarus, by which we shall understand a currency structure of export contracts of an international enterprise, is considered as one of the most important problems in the financial management of an enterprise. Statement and analysis of industrial enterprise alternative costs and simultaneous investigation of tendencies pertaining to changes in the exchange rates give the possibility (under other equal status to reduce non-systematic risks in foreign trade. Diversification of industrial enterprise currency portfolios with the purpose to decrease financial risks and with due account of exchange rate correlation can lead to an increase of payments in Russian currency and Eurocurrency under enterprise export contracts. The given changes decrease currency risks in the foreign trade however they entail possible increase of the export share of products to the Russian Federation in total export volume of the Republic of Belarus that increases dependence of the Republic of Belarus on the Russian Federation as the main foreign trade partner.
Optimization of portfolio of contracts for companies of electric power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gunn, Laura Keiko; Silva, Elisa Bastos; Correia, Paulo de Barros
2010-01-01
Portfolio optimization is a technique widely used to select investments in economic and financial zones. In the Brazilian Electric Market the portfolio models must consider not only different types of contracts used in the free market, but also different types of markets: the free market, the captive market and the spot market. Normally, the question is knowing which proportion of energy should be sold in each market, in order to maximize the return and minimize the risk. This article deals with a problem from the point of view of a power generator, where their objective is to maximize its profit, to serve their obligations regarding the delivery of energy and minimizing the risk associated with the occurrence of Spot Price - minimum (Spot Price). It is considered that the generator has flexible contracts and inflexible contracts to sell the energy. Inflexible contracts have delivery obligations of fixed energy and flexible contracts allow, the holder of the flexibility, to deliver or to receive an amount of variable energy. In this case, the holder of flexibility may be the purchaser or the generator. (author)
Kitt, R.; Kalda, J.
2006-03-01
The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurtic, because it minimises the effects from “fat tails” of returns. The leptokurtic portfolio theory provides an optimal portfolio for investors, who define their risk-aversion as unwillingness to experience sharp drawdowns in asset prices. Two types of risks in asset returns are defined: a fluctuation risk, that has Gaussian distribution, and a drawdown risk, that deals with distribution tails. These risks are quantitatively measured by defining the “noise kernel” — an ellipsoidal cloud of points in the space of asset returns. The size of the ellipse is controlled with the threshold parameter: the larger the threshold parameter, the larger return are accepted for investors as normal fluctuations. The return vectors falling into the kernel are used for calculation of fluctuation risk. Analogously, the data points falling outside the kernel are used for the calculation of drawdown risks. As a result the portfolio optimisation problem becomes three-dimensional: in addition to the return, there are two types of risks involved. Optimal portfolio for drawdown-averse investors is the portfolio minimising variance outside the noise kernel. The theory has been tested with MSCI North America, Europe and Pacific total return stock indices.
Optimal bank portfolio choice under fixed-rate deposit insurance
Anlong Li
1991-01-01
An analysis of the investment decisions of a bank whose deposits are fully insured under fixed-rate insurance, showing how banks dynamically adjust their investment portfolios in response to market information and how this flexibility affects both investment decisions and the fair cost of deposit insurance.
Optimal Strategy Analysis of a Competing Portfolio Market with a Polyvariant Profit Function
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bogolubov, Nikolai N. Jr.; Kyshakevych, Bohdan Yu.; Blackmore, Denis; Prykarpatsky, Anatoliy K.
2010-12-01
A competing market model with a polyvariant profit function that assumes 'zeitnot' stock behavior of clients is formulated within the banking portfolio medium and then analyzed from the perspective of devising optimal strategies. An associated Markov process method for finding an optimal choice strategy for monovariant and bivariant profit functions is developed. Under certain conditions on the bank 'promotional' parameter with respect to the 'fee' for a missed share package transaction and at an asymptotically large enough portfolio volume, universal transcendental equations - determining the optimal share package choice among competing strategies with monovariant and bivariant profit functions - are obtained. (author)
Optimal trading quantity integration as a basis for optimal portfolio management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saša Žiković
2005-06-01
Full Text Available The author in this paper points out the reason behind calculating and using optimal trading quantity in conjunction with Markowitz’s Modern portfolio theory. In the opening part the author presents an example of calculating optimal weights using Markowitz’s Mean-Variance approach, followed by an explanation of basic logic behind optimal trading quantity. The use of optimal trading quantity is not limited to systems with Bernoulli outcome, but can also be used when trading shares, futures, options etc. Optimal trading quantity points out two often-overlooked axioms: (1 a system with negative mathematical expectancy can never be transformed in a system with positive mathematical expectancy, (2 by missing the optimal trading quantity an investor can turn a system with positive expectancy into a negative one. Optimal trading quantity is that quantity which maximizes geometric mean (growth function of a particular system. To determine the optimal trading quantity for simpler systems, with a very limited number of outcomes, a set of Kelly’s formulas is appropriate. In the conclusion the summary of the paper is presented.
Large and small baseload power plants: Drivers to define the optimal portfolios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancini, Mauro
2011-01-01
Despite the growing interest in Small Medium sized Power Plants (SMPP) international literature provides only studies related to portfolios of large plants in infinite markets/grids with no particular attention given to base load SMPP. This paper aims to fill this gap, investigating the attractiveness of SMPP portfolios respect to large power plant portfolios. The analysis includes nuclear, coal and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) of different plant sizes. The Mean Variance Portfolio theory (MVP) is used to define the best portfolio according to Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Levelised Unit Electricity Cost (LUEC) considering the life cycle costs of each power plant, Carbon Tax, Electricity Price and grid dimension. The results show how large plants are the best option for large grids, while SMPP are as competitive as large plants in small grids. In fact, in order to achieve the highest profitability with the lowest risk it is necessary to build several types of different plants and, in case of small grids, this is possible only with SMPP. A further result is the application of the framework to European OECD countries and the United States assessing their portfolios. - Highlights: ► The literature about power plant portfolios does not consider small grids and IRR. ► We evaluated Base load portfolios respect to IRR and LUEC. ► We assessed the influence of grid and plant size, CO 2 cost and Electricity Price. ► Large plants are optimal for large markets even if small plants have similar IRR. ► Small plants are suitable to diversify portfolios in small grids reducing the risk.
Heuristic Optimization for the Discrete Virtual Power Plant Dispatch Problem
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Mette Kirschmeyer; Hansen, Lars Henrik; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon
2014-01-01
We consider a Virtual Power Plant, which is given the task of dispatching a fluctuating power supply to a portfolio of flexible consumers. The flexible consumers are modeled as discrete batch processes, and the associated optimization problem is denoted the Discrete Virtual Power Plant Dispatch...... Problem. First NP-completeness of the Discrete Virtual Power Plant Dispatch Problem is proved formally. We then proceed to develop tailored versions of the meta-heuristic algorithms Hill Climber and Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP). The algorithms are tuned and tested on portfolios...... of varying sizes. We find that all the tailored algorithms perform satisfactorily in the sense that they are able to find sub-optimal, but usable, solutions to very large problems (on the order of 10 5 units) at computation times on the scale of just 10 seconds, which is far beyond the capabilities...
Robust portfolio selection under norm uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lei Wang
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider the robust portfolio selection problem which has a data uncertainty described by the ( p , w $(p,w$ -norm in the objective function. We show that the robust formulation of this problem is equivalent to a linear optimization problem. Moreover, we present some numerical results concerning our robust portfolio selection problem.
On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Livan, Giacomo; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico
2012-01-01
We investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time series provides better, more accurate, correlation estimates. Then, we investigate the possible consequences of instabilities in empirical correlation coefficient measurements on optimal portfolio selection. We rely on previously published works which provide a framework allowing us to take into account possible risk underestimations due to the non-optimality of the portfolio weights being used in order to distinguish such non-optimality effects from risk underestimations genuinely due to non-stationarities. We interpret such results in terms of instabilities in some spectral properties of portfolio correlation matrices. (paper)
Comparative evaluation of fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms models for portfolio optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Heidar Masoumi Soureh
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Selection of optimum methods which have appropriate speed and precision for planning and de-cision-making has always been a challenge for investors and managers. One the most important concerns for them is investment planning and optimization for acquisition of desirable wealth under controlled risk with the best return. This paper proposes a model based on Markowitz the-orem by considering the aforementioned limitations in order to help effective decisions-making for portfolio selection. Then, the model is investigated by fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms, for the optimization of the portfolio in selected active companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2012-2016 and the results of the above models are discussed. The results show that the two studied models had functional differences in portfolio optimization, its tools and the possibility of supplementing each other and their selection.
A monetary value for initial information in portfolio optimization
Martin Schweizer; Dirk Becherer; Jürgen Amendinger
2002-01-01
We consider an investor maximizing his expected utility from terminal wealth with portfolio decisions based on the available information flow. This investor faces the opportunity to acquire some additional initial information ${\\cal G}$. His subjective fair value of this information is defined as the amount of money that he can pay for ${\\cal G}$ such that this cost is balanced out by the informational advantage in terms of maximal expected utility. We study this value for common utility func...
Class and Home Problems: Optimization Problems
Anderson, Brian J.; Hissam, Robin S.; Shaeiwitz, Joseph A.; Turton, Richard
2011-01-01
Optimization problems suitable for all levels of chemical engineering students are available. These problems do not require advanced mathematical techniques, since they can be solved using typical software used by students and practitioners. The method used to solve these problems forces students to understand the trends for the different terms…
Computation of optimal transport and related hedging problems via penalization and neural networks
Eckstein, Stephan; Kupper, Michael
2018-01-01
This paper presents a widely applicable approach to solving (multi-marginal, martingale) optimal transport and related problems via neural networks. The core idea is to penalize the optimization problem in its dual formulation and reduce it to a finite dimensional one which corresponds to optimizing a neural network with smooth objective function. We present numerical examples from optimal transport, martingale optimal transport, portfolio optimization under uncertainty and generative adversa...
Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.
Ren, Fei; Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian
2017-01-01
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.
Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fei Ren
Full Text Available The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.
Bjordal, Andreas; Opdahl, Espen
2017-01-01
In this paper, we rigorously investigate the benefit of utilizing an active investment strategy based on momentum when investing in cryptocurrencies. We also examine how including cryptocurrencies in a more traditional asset allocation can optimize an investment portfolio. First, we create strategies with the use of exponential moving averages and simple average filters to generate a trading signal. Second, we provide evidence that the active strategies receive positive return,...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yulia V. Dementieva
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the study is the description of the main problems of formation of the student’s electronic portfolio in the conditions of realization of Federal State Educational Standards of the Higher Education (FSES of HE.Methods.Theoretical analysis of scientific literature concerning the subject under discussion; monitoring of existing practices in modern Russian Universities procedures for the formation and maintenance of students electronic portfolio.Results. The author describes the main problems of the electronic students’ portfolio formation; some ways of solving described problems are offered.Scientific novelty concludes in the formation of key ideas of the electronic students’ portfolio based on the understanding of requirements of Federal State Educational Standards of Higher Education for the results of mastering educational programs. They are the formation of general cultural, general professional and professional competences.Practical significance. The researching results will become the theoretical basis for the systematic organization of the process of creating and maintaining an electronic students’ portfolio during the whole period of their studying at the university; the researching results can become a basis for methodological developments.
Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment.
Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo
2016-03-01
The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV) systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in . The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems.
Computing Optimal Stochastic Portfolio Execution Strategies: A Parametric Approach Using Simulations
Moazeni, Somayeh; Coleman, Thomas F.; Li, Yuying
2010-09-01
Computing optimal stochastic portfolio execution strategies under appropriate risk consideration presents great computational challenge. We investigate a parametric approach for computing optimal stochastic strategies using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows reduction in computational complexity by computing coefficients for a parametric representation of a stochastic dynamic strategy based on static optimization. Using this technique, constraints can be similarly handled using appropriate penalty functions. We illustrate the proposed approach to minimize the expected execution cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).
Random matrix theory and portfolio optimization in Moroccan stock exchange
El Alaoui, Marwane
2015-09-01
In this work, we use random matrix theory to analyze eigenvalues and see if there is a presence of pertinent information by using Marčenko-Pastur distribution. Thus, we study cross-correlation among stocks of Casablanca Stock Exchange. Moreover, we clean correlation matrix from noisy elements to see if the gap between predicted risk and realized risk would be reduced. We also analyze eigenvectors components distributions and their degree of deviations by computing the inverse participation ratio. This analysis is a way to understand the correlation structure among stocks of Casablanca Stock Exchange portfolio.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ricardo Faia
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The deregulation of the electricity sector has culminated in the introduction of competitive markets. In addition, the emergence of new forms of electric energy production, namely the production of renewable energy, has brought additional changes in electricity market operation. Renewable energy has significant advantages, but at the cost of an intermittent character. The generation variability adds new challenges for negotiating players, as they have to deal with a new level of uncertainty. In order to assist players in their decisions, decision support tools enabling assisting players in their negotiations are crucial. Artificial intelligence techniques play an important role in this decision support, as they can provide valuable results in rather small execution times, namely regarding the problem of optimizing the electricity markets participation portfolio. This paper proposes a heuristic method that provides an initial solution that allows metaheuristic techniques to improve their results through a good initialization of the optimization process. Results show that by using the proposed heuristic, multiple metaheuristic optimization methods are able to improve their solutions in a faster execution time, thus providing a valuable contribution for players support in energy markets negotiations.
Extension of portfolio theory application to energy planning problem – The Italian case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnesano, M.; Carlucci, A.P.; Laforgia, D.
2012-01-01
Energy procurement is a necessity which needs a deep study of both the demand and the generation sources, referred to consumers territorial localization. The study presented in this paper extends and consolidate the Shimon Awerbuch’s study on portfolio theory applied to the energy planning, in order to define a broad generating mix which optimizes one or more objective functions defined for a determined contest. For this purpose the computation model was specialized in energy generation problem and extended with the addition of new cost-risk settings, like renewable energy availability, and Black–Litterman model, which extends Markowitz theory. Energy planning was then contextualized to the territory: the introduction of geographic and climatic features allows to plan energy infrastructures on both global and local (regional, provincial, municipal) scale. The result is an efficient decision making tool to drive the investment on typical energy policy assets. In general the tool allows to analyze several scenarios in support of renewable energy sources, environmental sustainability, costs and risks reduction. In this paper the model was applied to the energy generation in Italy, and the analysis was done: on the actual energy mix; assuming the use of nuclear technology; assuming the verisimilar improvement of several technologies in the future. -- Highlights: ► Extension and consolidation of Shimon Awerbuch’s studies. ► Introduction of aspects connected to realization and utilization of power plants. ► Application of the model on a national, provincial, municipal scale. ► Modification of Energy Portfolio based on subjective previsions (Black–Litterman).
Issues in the determination of the optimal portfolio of electricity supply options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hickey, Emily A.; Lon Carlson, J.; Loomis, David
2010-01-01
In recent years a growing amount of attention has been focused on the need to develop a cost-effective portfolio of electricity supply options that provides society with a measure of protection from such factors as fuel price volatility and supply interruptions. A number of strategies, including portfolio theory, real options theory, and different measures of diversity have been suggested. In this paper we begin by first considering how we might characterize an optimal portfolio of supply options and identify a number of constraints that must be satisfied as part of the optimization process. We then review the strengths and limitations of each approach listed above. The results of our review lead us to conclude that, of the strategies we consider, using the concept of diversity to assess the viability of an electricity supply portfolio is most appropriate. We then provide an example of how a particular measure of diversity, the Shannon-Weiner Index, can be used to assess the diversity of the electricity supply portfolio in the state of Illinois, the region served by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), and the continental United States.
A Quantitative Optimization Framework for Market-Driven Academic Program Portfolios
Burgher, Joshua; Hamers, Herbert
2017-01-01
We introduce a quantitative model that can be used for decision support for planning and optimizing the composition of portfolios of market-driven academic programs within the context of higher education. This model is intended to enable leaders in colleges and universities to maximize financial
Decentralized Portfolio Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benjamin Miranda Tabak
2003-12-01
Full Text Available We use a mean-variance model to analyze the problem of decentralized portfolio management. We find the solution for the optimal portfolio allocation for a head trader operating in n different markets, which is called the optimal centralized portfolio. However, as there are many traders specialized in different markets, the solution to the problem of optimal decentralized allocation should be different from the centralized case. In this paper we derive conditions for the solutions to be equivalent. We use multivariate normal returns and a negative exponential function to solve the problem analytically. We generate the equivalence of solutions by assuming that different traders face different interest rates for borrowing and lending. This interest rate is dependent on the ratio of the degrees of risk aversion of the trader and the head trader, on the excess return, and on the correlation between asset returns.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jingtao Shi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the relationship between maximum principle and dynamic programming for stochastic recursive optimal control problems. Under certain differentiability conditions, relations among the adjoint processes, the generalized Hamiltonian function, and the value function are given. A linear quadratic recursive utility portfolio optimization problem in the financial engineering is discussed as an explicitly illustrated example of the main result.
A Problem on Optimal Transportation
Cechlarova, Katarina
2005-01-01
Mathematical optimization problems are not typical in the classical curriculum of mathematics. In this paper we show how several generalizations of an easy problem on optimal transportation were solved by gifted secondary school pupils in a correspondence mathematical seminar, how they can be used in university courses of linear programming and…
Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model
Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi
2017-08-01
As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.
Application of an integrated model for evaluation and optimization of business projects portfolios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Camila Costa Dutra
2016-12-01
Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio.
APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR EVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROJECTS PORTFOLIOS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco
2016-12-01
Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio
Portfolios with nonlinear constraints and spin glasses
Gábor, Adrienn; Kondor, I.
1999-12-01
In a recent paper Galluccio, Bouchaud and Potters demonstrated that a certain portfolio problem with a nonlinear constraint maps exactly onto finding the ground states of a long-range spin glass, with the concomitant nonuniqueness and instability of the optimal portfolios. Here we put forward geometric arguments that lead to qualitatively similar conclusions, without recourse to the methods of spin glass theory, and give two more examples of portfolio problems with convex nonlinear constraints.
Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process
Ma, Hui-qiang
2014-01-01
We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance effici...
Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy. The Spanish case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munoz, Jose Ignacio; Sanchez de la Nieta, Agustin A.; Contreras, Javier; Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.
2009-01-01
This article presents a model for investing in renewable energies in the framework of the Spanish electricity market in a way that risk is minimised for the investor while returns are maximised. The model outlined here is based on an economic model for calculating cash flows intended to obtain the internal rate of return (IRR) of the different energies being studied: wind, photovoltaic, mini hydro and thermo electrical. The IRRs obtained are considered the returns on investments, while their standard deviations are considered associated risks. In order to minimise risk, a comprehensive portfolio of investments is created that includes all of the available energies by means of a system of linear equations. The solution of the linear system is graphically checked using the efficient frontier method for the different financing options. Several case studies within the Renewable Energies Plan (PER is its Spanish abbreviation) that is in force in Spain in the period 2005-2010 are analysed in order to illustrate the method, as are other case studies using different types of financing, helping us to reach the pertinent conclusions. (author)
Mean-Reverting Portfolio With Budget Constraint
Zhao, Ziping; Palomar, Daniel P.
2018-05-01
This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, taking into consideration the variance of the portfolio and an investment budget constraint. Then several specific problems are considered based on the general formulation, and efficient algorithms are proposed. Numerical results on both synthetic and market data show that our proposed mean-reverting portfolio design methods can generate consistent profits and outperform the traditional design methods and the benchmark methods in the literature.
Sun, Xuelian; Liu, Zixian
2016-02-01
In this paper, a new estimator of correlation matrix is proposed, which is composed of the detrended cross-correlation coefficients (DCCA coefficients), to improve portfolio optimization. In contrast to Pearson's correlation coefficients (PCC), DCCA coefficients acquired by the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method can describe the nonlinear correlation between assets, and can be decomposed in different time scales. These properties of DCCA make it possible to improve the investment effect and more valuable to investigate the scale behaviors of portfolios. The minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model and the Mean-Variance (MV) model are used to evaluate the effectiveness of this improvement. Stability analysis shows the effect of two kinds of correlation matrices on the estimation error of portfolio weights. The observed scale behaviors are significant to risk management and could be used to optimize the portfolio selection.
An Optimal Portfolio and Capital Management Strategy for Basel III Compliant Commercial Banks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grant E. Muller
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We model a Basel III compliant commercial bank that operates in a financial market consisting of a treasury security, a marketable security, and a loan and we regard the interest rate in the market as being stochastic. We find the investment strategy that maximizes an expected utility of the bank’s asset portfolio at a future date. This entails obtaining formulas for the optimal amounts of bank capital invested in different assets. Based on the optimal investment strategy, we derive a model for the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, which the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS introduced as a measure against banks’ susceptibility to failure. Furthermore, we consider the optimal investment strategy subject to a constant CAR at the minimum prescribed level. We derive a formula for the bank’s asset portfolio at constant (minimum CAR value and present numerical simulations on different scenarios. Under the optimal investment strategy, the CAR is above the minimum prescribed level. The value of the asset portfolio is improved if the CAR is at its (constant minimum value.
Topology Optimization for Convection Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alexandersen, Joe
2011-01-01
This report deals with the topology optimization of convection problems.That is, the aim of the project is to develop, implement and examine topology optimization of purely thermal and coupled thermomechanical problems,when the design-dependent eects of convection are taken into consideration.......This is done by the use of a self-programmed FORTRAN-code, which builds on an existing 2D-plane thermomechanical nite element code implementing during the course `41525 FEM-Heavy'. The topology optimizationfeatures have been implemented from scratch, and allows the program to optimize elastostatic mechanical...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sri Astuti Heryanti
2017-05-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to obtain empirical evidence about the difference between the level of risk when investing stocks in the Islamic and conventional by using Value at Risk (VaR. The object of research including consistent stock in the Jakarta Islamic Index and LQ45. The analytical method used in this research is quantitative analysis consisting of the establishment of the optimal portfolio by Markowitz method, calculation of VaR and testing the differences with Independent sample t-test. This study indicated that the value every stock can be reduced by diversifying through the establishment of an optimal portfolio. Based on the calculation Independent sample t-test, it is known that there is no difference between VaR of Islamic stocks and conventional stocks.
The optimal graph partitioning problem
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Michael Malmros; Holm, Søren
1993-01-01
. This problem can be formulated as a MILP, which turns out to be completely symmetrical with respect to the p classes, and the gap between the relaxed LP solution and the optimal solution is the largest one possible. These two properties make it very difficult to solve even smaller problems. In this paper...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kristian
2013-01-01
Purpose – As public organizations strive for higher e-government maturity, information technology (IT) Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. Assuming control is central in IT PPM, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how a Danish local government conducts...... to understand how local governments can improve IT PPM. Keywords IT project portfolio management, E-government, Control theory, Control problems, Formal mechanisms, Informal mechanisms, Local government, Denmark...... control in IT PPM. The authors identify control problems and formulate recommendations to address these. Design/methodology/approach – Adopting principles from Engaged Scholarship, the authors have conducted a case study using a wide variety of data collection methods, including 29 interviews, one...
The Effect of Exit Strategy on Optimal Portfolio Selection with Birandom Returns
Cao, Guohua; Shan, Dan
2013-01-01
The aims of this paper are to use a birandom variable to denote the stock return selected by some recurring technical patterns and to study the effect of exit strategy on optimal portfolio selection with birandom returns. Firstly, we propose a new method to estimate the stock return and use birandom distribution to denote the final stock return which can reflect the features of technical patterns and investors' heterogeneity simultaneously; secondly, we build a birandom safety-first model and...
Optimization of investment portfolio weight of stocks affected by market index
Azizah, E.; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.
2017-01-01
Stock price assessment, selection of optimum combination, and measure the risk of a portfolio investment is one important issue for investors. In this paper single index model used for the assessment of the stock price, and formulation optimization model developed using Lagrange multiplier technique to determine the proportion of assets to be invested. The level of risk is estimated by using variance. These models are used to analyse the stock price data Lippo Bank and Bumi Putera.
Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Shapovalova
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.
Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Shapovalova
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.
Building a Smart E-Portfolio Platform for Optimal E-Learning Objects Acquisition
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chih-Kun Ke
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In modern education, an e-portfolio platform helps students in acquiring e-learning objects in a learning activity. Quality is an important consideration in evaluating the desirable e-learning object. Finding a means of determining a high quality e-learning object from a large number of candidate e-learning objects is an important requirement. To assist student learning in a modern e-portfolio platform, this work proposed an optimal selection approach determining a reasonable e-learning object from various candidate e-learning objects. An optimal selection approach which uses advanced information techniques is proposed. Each e-learning object undergoes a formalization process. An Information Retrieval (IR technique extracts and analyses key concepts from the student’s previous learning contexts. A context-based utility model computes the expected utility values of various e-learning objects based on the extracted key concepts. The expected utility values of e-learning objects are used in a multicriteria decision analysis to determine the optimal selection order of the candidate e-learning objects. The main contribution of this work is the demonstration of an effective e-learning object selection method which is easy to implement within an e-portfolio platform and which makes it smarter.
Xu, Jun
Topic 1. An Optimization-Based Approach for Facility Energy Management with Uncertainties. Effective energy management for facilities is becoming increasingly important in view of the rising energy costs, the government mandate on the reduction of energy consumption, and the human comfort requirements. This part of dissertation presents a daily energy management formulation and the corresponding solution methodology for HVAC systems. The problem is to minimize the energy and demand costs through the control of HVAC units while satisfying human comfort, system dynamics, load limit constraints, and other requirements. The problem is difficult in view of the fact that the system is nonlinear, time-varying, building-dependent, and uncertain; and that the direct control of a large number of HVAC components is difficult. In this work, HVAC setpoints are the control variables developed on top of a Direct Digital Control (DDC) system. A method that combines Lagrangian relaxation, neural networks, stochastic dynamic programming, and heuristics is developed to predict the system dynamics and uncontrollable load, and to optimize the setpoints. Numerical testing and prototype implementation results show that our method can effectively reduce total costs, manage uncertainties, and shed the load, is computationally efficient. Furthermore, it is significantly better than existing methods. Topic 2. Power Portfolio Optimization in Deregulated Electricity Markets with Risk Management. In a deregulated electric power system, multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments. A load serving entity (LSE) has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations. In view of the large amount of power involved, the complex market structure, risks in such volatile markets, stringent constraints to be satisfied, and the long time horizon, a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance but difficulty for an LSE to serve the
Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios
Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.
2010-09-01
We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.
Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.
2010-01-01
We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.
Topology optimization of flow problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gersborg, Allan Roulund
2007-01-01
This thesis investigates how to apply topology optimization using the material distribution technique to steady-state viscous incompressible flow problems. The target design applications are fluid devices that are optimized with respect to minimizing the energy loss, characteristic properties...... transport in 2D Stokes flow. Using Stokes flow limits the range of applications; nonetheless, the thesis gives a proof-of-concept for the application of the method within fluid dynamic problems and it remains of interest for the design of microfluidic devices. Furthermore, the thesis contributes...... at the Technical University of Denmark. Large topology optimization problems with 2D and 3D Stokes flow modeling are solved with direct and iterative strategies employing the parallelized Sun Performance Library and the OpenMP parallelization technique, respectively....
Soeryana, Endang; Halim, Nurfadhlina Bt Abdul; Sukono, Rusyaman, Endang; Supian, Sudradjat
2017-03-01
Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on the Negative Exponential Utility Function. Non constant mean analyzed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analyzed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyze some stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each stock analyzed
About an Optimal Visiting Problem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bagagiolo, Fabio, E-mail: bagagiol@science.unitn.it; Benetton, Michela [Unversita di Trento, Dipartimento di Matematica (Italy)
2012-02-15
In this paper we are concerned with the optimal control problem consisting in minimizing the time for reaching (visiting) a fixed number of target sets, in particular more than one target. Such a problem is of course reminiscent of the famous 'Traveling Salesman Problem' and brings all its computational difficulties. Our aim is to apply the dynamic programming technique in order to characterize the value function of the problem as the unique viscosity solution of a suitable Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We introduce some 'external' variables, one per target, which keep in memory whether the corresponding target is already visited or not, and we transform the visiting problem in a suitable Mayer problem. This fact allows us to overcome the lacking of the Dynamic Programming Principle for the originary problem. The external variables evolve with a hysteresis law and the Hamilton-Jacobi equation turns out to be discontinuous.
Optimal investment in a portfolio of HIV prevention programs.
Zaric, G S; Brandeau, M L
2001-01-01
In this article, the authors determine the optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds and investigate the impact of different allocation methods on health outcomes. The authors present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of HIV prevention funds that maximizes quality-adjusted life years (or life years) gained or HIV infections averted in a population over a specified time horizon. They apply the model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among 3 types of HIV prevention programs in a population of injection drug users and nonusers: needle exchange programs, methadone maintenance treatment, and condom availability programs. For each prevention program, the authors estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in risky behavior. The authors determine the optimal allocation of funds for both objective functions for a high-prevalence population and a low-prevalence population. They also consider the allocation of funds under several common rules of thumb that are used to allocate HIV prevention resources. It is shown that simpler allocation methods (e.g., allocation based on HIV incidence or notions of equity among population groups) may lead to alloctions that do not yield the maximum health benefit. The optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds in a population depends on HIV prevalence and incidence, the objective function, the production functions for the prevention programs, and other factors. Consideration of cost, equity, and social and political norms may be important when allocating HIV prevention funds. The model presented in this article can help decision makers determine the health consequences of different allocations of funds.
Optimal portfolio selection between different kinds of Renewable energy sources
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zakerinia, MohammadSaleh; Piltan, Mehdi; Ghaderi, Farid
2010-09-15
In this paper, selection of the optimal energy supply system in an industrial unit is taken into consideration. This study takes environmental, economical and social parameters into consideration in modeling along with technical factors. Several alternatives which include renewable energy sources, micro-CHP systems and conventional system has been compared by means of an integrated model of linear programming and three multi-criteria approaches (AHP, TOPSIS and ELECTRE III). New parameters like availability of sources, fuels' price volatility, besides traditional factors are considered in different scenarios. Results show with environmental preferences, renewable sources and micro-CHP are good alternatives for conventional systems.
Sukmawati, Zuhairoh, Faihatuz
2017-05-01
The purpose of this research was to develop authentic assessment model based on showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving. This research used research and development Method (R & D) which consists of four stages of development that: Phase I, conducting a preliminary study. Phase II, determining the purpose of developing and preparing the initial model. Phase III, trial test of instrument for the initial draft model and the initial product. The respondents of this research are the students of SMAN 8 and SMAN 20 Makassar. The collection of data was through observation, interviews, documentation, student questionnaire, and instrument tests mathematical solving abilities. The data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistics. The results of this research are authentic assessment model design based on showcase portfolio which involves: 1) Steps in implementing the authentic assessment based Showcase, assessment rubric of cognitive aspects, assessment rubric of affective aspects, and assessment rubric of skill aspect. 2) The average ability of the students' problem solving which is scored by using authentic assessment based on showcase portfolio was in high category and the students' response in good category.
Well-posed optimization problems
Dontchev, Asen L
1993-01-01
This book presents in a unified way the mathematical theory of well-posedness in optimization. The basic concepts of well-posedness and the links among them are studied, in particular Hadamard and Tykhonov well-posedness. Abstract optimization problems as well as applications to optimal control, calculus of variations and mathematical programming are considered. Both the pure and applied side of these topics are presented. The main subject is often introduced by heuristics, particular cases and examples. Complete proofs are provided. The expected knowledge of the reader does not extend beyond textbook (real and functional) analysis, some topology and differential equations and basic optimization. References are provided for more advanced topics. The book is addressed to mathematicians interested in optimization and related topics, and also to engineers, control theorists, economists and applied scientists who can find here a mathematical justification of practical procedures they encounter.
On the Computation of the Efficient Frontier of the Portfolio Selection Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Clara Calvo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available An easy-to-use procedure is presented for improving the ε-constraint method for computing the efficient frontier of the portfolio selection problem endowed with additional cardinality and semicontinuous variable constraints. The proposed method provides not only a numerical plotting of the frontier but also an analytical description of it, including the explicit equations of the arcs of parabola it comprises and the change points between them. This information is useful for performing a sensitivity analysis as well as for providing additional criteria to the investor in order to select an efficient portfolio. Computational results are provided to test the efficiency of the algorithm and to illustrate its applications. The procedure has been implemented in Mathematica.
Morton de Lachapelle, David; Challet, Damien
2010-07-01
Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial markets, agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution towards building a set of stylized facts about the traders themselves. Using the client database of Swissquote Bank SA, the largest online Swiss broker, we find empirical relationships between turnover, account values and the number of assets in which a trader is invested. A theory based on simple mean-variance portfolio optimization that crucially includes variable transaction costs is able to reproduce faithfully the observed behaviors. We finally argue that our results bring to light the collective ability of a population to construct a mean-variance portfolio that takes into account the structure of transaction costs.
Spreitzer, U. W.; Reznik, V.
2007-05-01
Using a portfolio built from bonds (investment without volatility) and shares (investment with volatility) corresponding to the CAPM we calculate the possible loss of this portfolio. The loss is measured by a so-called lower partial moment of the rate of return of the portfolio. Using this loss, we optimize the composition of the portfolio with respect to this loss. Also we investigate the optimization of the portfolio when the loss can be underwritten by an insurance. Concerning the premium of this insurance contract, we show that when the premium is defined inadequate, e.g. proportional to the investment or proportional to the amount of investment in shares, the optimal portfolio consists only of investment in shares. When the premium is defined more suitable, e.g. proportional to the loss, the optimal portfolio is built by an investment in bonds and shares.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui
1994-01-01
The paper studies the problem of determining the number and dimensions of sizes of apparel so as to maximize profits. It develops a simple one-variable bisection search algorithm that gives the optimal solution. An example is solved interactively using a Macintosh LC and Math CAD, a mathematical...
Problems of radiation protection optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morkunas, G.
2003-01-01
One of the basic principles - optimization of radiation protection - is rather well understood by everybody engaged in protection of humans from ionizing radiation. However, the practical application of this principle is very problematic. This fact can be explained by vagueness of concept of dose constraints, possible legal consequences of any decision based on this principle, traditions of prescriptive system of radiation protection requirements in some countries, insufficiency of qualified expertise. The examples of optimization problems are the different attention given to different kinds of practices, not optimized application of remedial measures, strict requirements for radioactive contamination of imported products, uncertainties in optimization in medical applications of ionizing radiation. Such tools as international co-operation including regional networks of information exchange, training of qualified experts, identification of measurable indicators used for judging about the level of optimization may be the helpful practical means in solving of these problems. It is evident that the principle of optimization can not be replaced by any other alternative despite its complexity. The means for its practical implementation shall be searched for. (author)
Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L
2012-04-24
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.
Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.
2012-01-01
Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi
2012-01-01
The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.
Kerschke, Pascal
2017-01-01
Choosing the best-performing optimizer(s) out of a portfolio of optimization algorithms is usually a difficult and complex task. It gets even worse, if the underlying functions are unknown, i.e., so-called Black-Box problems, and function evaluations are considered to be expensive. In the case of continuous single-objective optimization problems, Exploratory Landscape Analysis (ELA) - a sophisticated and effective approach for characterizing the landscapes of such problems by means of numeric...
How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios.
Hubener, Andreas; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S
2016-04-01
We show how optimal household decisions regarding work, retirement, saving, portfolio allocations, and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in U.S. Social Security rules and uncertain family transitions. Our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement, an age-62 peak in claiming rates, and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women. Moreover, life insurance is mainly purchased on men's lives. Our model, which takes Social Security rules seriously, generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data, in contrast to earlier and less realistic models.
Parametric Portfolio Policies with Common Volatility Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Taamouti, Abderrahim
A parametric portfolio policy function is considered that incorporates common stock volatility dynamics to optimally determine portfolio weights. Reducing dimension of the traditional portfolio selection problem significantly, only a number of policy parameters corresponding to first- and second......-order characteristics are estimated based on a standard method-of-moments technique. The method, allowing for the calculation of portfolio weight and return statistics, is illustrated with an empirical application to 30 U.S. industries to study the economic activity before and after the recent financial crisis....
Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.
2015-12-01
The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.
Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.
2017-01-01
Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.
) Application of Value Management and Portfolio Optimization to the Nigerian Market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agbonyeme, C.
2003-01-01
The desire to thoroughly analyze the economic value of oil, gas and non-oil properties in Nigeria is increasing fast.This analysis is especially important for marginal fields where the borderline between technical success and financial disaster is small. Also, with the objective to increase daily output of oil to 4 million bbl/day by the year 2005 many dormant fields are re-appraised. This has to be done technically and financially. Oil and gas companies that optimize their portfolio through acquisition and divestiture face a lot of challenges. These challenges include decisions of whether to invest or divest, preparation of a divestiture package for analysis, and also the definition of a company's own most suitable economic performance indicators. In this evaluation process, the understanding and proper modelling of the local fiscal regime is of paramount importance. A quick and efficient method is presented which accounts for the complexity of the Nigerian fiscal regime-for computing the value of fields, analyzing the risks associated with a project and selecting the most profitable project from a range of available projects or portfolios. Tools for facilitating this multifaceted decision making process will be discussed as well as latest probabilistic techniques discussed as well as latest probabilistic techniques and optimization strategies. Example cases showing the successful application of these techniques in Nigeria will round off this paper
An inequality for detecting financial fraud, derived from the Markowitz Optimal Portfolio Theory
Bard, Gregory V.
2016-12-01
The Markowitz Optimal Portfolio Theory, published in 1952, is well-known, and was often taught because it blends Lagrange Multipliers, matrices, statistics, and mathematical finance. However, the theory faded from prominence in American investing, as Business departments at US universities shifted from techniques based on mathematics, finance, and statistics, to focus instead on leadership, public speaking, interpersonal skills, advertising, etc… The author proposes a new application of Markowitz's Theory: the detection of a fairly broad category of financial fraud (called "Ponzi schemes" in American newspapers) by looking at a particular inequality derived from the Markowitz Optimal Portfolio Theory, relating volatility and expected rate of return. For example, one recent Ponzi scheme was that of Bernard Madoff, uncovered in December 2008, which comprised fraud totaling 64,800,000,000 US dollars [23]. The objective is to compare investments with the "efficient frontier" as predicted by Markowitz's theory. Violations of the inequality should be impossible in theory; therefore, in practice, violations might indicate fraud.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kristian
2013-01-01
Purpose – As public organizations strive for higher e-government maturity, information technology (IT) Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM) has become a high priority issue. Assuming control is central in IT PPM, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how a Danish local government conducts...... workshop, and analyses of documents. Findings – It is found that the local government relies vastly on informal control mechanisms and five control problems are identified: weak accountability processes between the political and administrative level; weak accountability between the director level...... the identified control problems. Research limitations/implications – As a single qualitative case study, the results are limited to one organization and subject. Practical implications – The paper has implications for IT PPM in Danish local governments and similar organizations in other countries. The paper...
The Effect of Exit Strategy on Optimal Portfolio Selection with Birandom Returns
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guohua Cao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The aims of this paper are to use a birandom variable to denote the stock return selected by some recurring technical patterns and to study the effect of exit strategy on optimal portfolio selection with birandom returns. Firstly, we propose a new method to estimate the stock return and use birandom distribution to denote the final stock return which can reflect the features of technical patterns and investors' heterogeneity simultaneously; secondly, we build a birandom safety-first model and design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to help investors make decisions; finally, we innovatively study the effect of exit strategy on the given birandom safety-first model. The results indicate that (1 the exit strategy affects the proportion of portfolio, (2 the performance of taking the exit strategy is better than when the exit strategy is not taken, if the stop-loss point and the stop-profit point are appropriately set, and (3 the investor using the exit strategy become conservative.
Portfolio optimization using fundamental indicators based on multi-objective EA
Silva, Antonio Daniel; Horta, Nuno
2016-01-01
This work presents a new approach to portfolio composition in the stock market. It incorporates a fundamental approach using financial ratios and technical indicators with a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms to choose the portfolio composition with two objectives the return and the risk. Two different chromosomes are used for representing different investment models with real constraints equivalents to the ones faced by managers of mutual funds, hedge funds, and pension funds. To validate the present solution two case studies are presented for the SP&500 for the period June 2010 until end of 2012. The simulations demonstrates that stock selection based on financial ratios is a combination that can be used to choose the best companies in operational terms, obtaining returns above the market average with low variances in their returns. In this case the optimizer found stocks with high return on investment in a conjunction with high rate of growth of the net income and a high profit margin. To obtain s...
Linear and nonlinear market correlations: Characterizing financial crises and portfolio optimization
Haluszczynski, Alexander; Laut, Ingo; Modest, Heike; Räth, Christoph
2017-12-01
Pearson correlation and mutual information-based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of U.S. S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent) turbulent market periods, thus indicating strongly fluctuating interconnections between the stocks of different companies in changing economic environments. A measure for the strength of nonlinear dependencies is derived using surrogate data and leads to interesting observations during periods of financial market crises. In contrast to the expectation that dependencies reduce mainly to linear correlations during crises, we show that (at least in the 2008 crisis) nonlinear effects are significantly increasing. It turns out that the concept of centrality within a network could potentially be used as some kind of an early warning indicator for abnormal market behavior as we demonstrate with the example of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Finally, we apply a Markowitz mean variance portfolio optimization and integrate the measure of nonlinear dependencies to scale the investment exposure. This leads to significant outperformance as compared to a fully invested portfolio.
On portfolio risk diversification
Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.
2017-06-01
The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.
Universal portfolios in stochastic portfolio theory
Wong, Ting-Kam Leonard
2015-01-01
Consider a family of portfolio strategies with the aim of achieving the asymptotic growth rate of the best one. The idea behind Cover's universal portfolio is to build a wealth-weighted average which can be viewed as a buy-and-hold portfolio of portfolios. When an optimal portfolio exists, the wealth-weighted average converges to it by concentration of wealth. Working under a discrete time and pathwise setup, we show under suitable conditions that the distribution of wealth in the family sati...
Optimal Scheduling of Biogas-Solar-Wind Renewable Portfolio for Multi-Carrier Energy Supplies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhou, Bin; Xu, Da; Li, Canbing
2018-01-01
the mitigation of renewable intermittency and the efficient utilization of batteries, and a multi-carrier generation scheduling scheme is further presented to dynamically optimize dispatch factors in the coupling matrix for energy-efficient con-version and storage, while different energy demands of end......This paper proposes a multi-source multi-product framework for coupled multi-carrier energy supplies with a biogas-solar-wind hybrid renewable system. In this framework, the biogas-solar-wind complementarities are fully exploited based on digesting thermodynamic effects for the synergetic...... interactions of electricity, gas and heating energy flows, and a coupling matrix is formulated for the modeling of production, conversion, storage, and consumption of different energy carriers. The multi-energy complementarity of biogas-solar-wind renewable portfolio can be utilized to facilitate...
SOCIAL NETWORK OPTIMIZATION A NEW METHAHEURISTIC FOR GENERAL OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hassan Sherafat
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In the recent years metaheuristics were studied and developed as powerful technics for hard optimization problems. Some of well-known technics in this field are: Genetic Algorithms, Tabu Search, Simulated Annealing, Ant Colony Optimization, and Swarm Intelligence, which are applied successfully to many complex optimization problems. In this paper, we introduce a new metaheuristic for solving such problems based on social networks concept, named as Social Network Optimization – SNO. We show that a wide range of np-hard optimization problems may be solved by SNO.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pindoriya, N.M.; Singh, S.N. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016 (India); Singh, S.K. [Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow 226013 (India)
2010-10-15
This paper proposes an approach for generation portfolio allocation based on mean-variance-skewness (MVS) model which is an extension of the classical mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory, to deal with assets whose return distribution is non-normal. The MVS model allocates portfolios optimally by considering the maximization of both the expected return and skewness of portfolio return while simultaneously minimizing the risk. Since, it is competing and conflicting non-smooth multi-objective optimization problem, this paper employed a multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) based meta-heuristic technique to provide Pareto-optimal solution in a single simulation run. Using a case study of the PJM electricity market, the performance of the MVS portfolio theory based method and the classical MV method is compared. It has been found that the MVS portfolio theory based method can provide significantly better portfolios in the situation where non-normally distributed assets exist for trading. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pindoriya, N.M.; Singh, S.N.; Singh, S.K.
2010-01-01
This paper proposes an approach for generation portfolio allocation based on mean-variance-skewness (MVS) model which is an extension of the classical mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory, to deal with assets whose return distribution is non-normal. The MVS model allocates portfolios optimally by considering the maximization of both the expected return and skewness of portfolio return while simultaneously minimizing the risk. Since, it is competing and conflicting non-smooth multi-objective optimization problem, this paper employed a multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) based meta-heuristic technique to provide Pareto-optimal solution in a single simulation run. Using a case study of the PJM electricity market, the performance of the MVS portfolio theory based method and the classical MV method is compared. It has been found that the MVS portfolio theory based method can provide significantly better portfolios in the situation where non-normally distributed assets exist for trading. (author)
Optimization problem in quantum cryptography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandt, Howard E
2003-01-01
A complete optimization was recently performed, yielding the maximum information gain by a general unitary entangling probe in the four-state protocol of quantum cryptography. A larger set of optimum probe parameters was found than was known previously from an incomplete optimization. In the present work, a detailed comparison is made between the complete and incomplete optimizations. Also, a new set of optimum probe parameters is identified for the four-state protocol
Carrying the (paper) burden: A portfolio view of systemic risk and optimal bank size
Bos, J.W.B.; Lamers, M.; Purice, V.
2014-01-01
We examine the relationship between bank size and financial stability by viewing the supervisor of a banking system as an ‘investor’ holding a portfolio of banks. Based on this view, we investigate the role of large banks in determining the systemic risk in this portfolio. Our results, based on book
Equity portfolio optimization: A DEA based methodology applied to the Zagreb Stock Exchange
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Margareta Gardijan
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Most strategies for selection portfolios focus on utilizing solely market data and implicitly assume that stock markets communicate all relevant information to all market stakeholders, and that these markets cannot be influenced by investor activities. However convenient, this is a limited approach, especially when applied to small and illiquid markets such as the Croatian market, where such assumptions are hardly realistic. Thus, there is a demand for including other sources of data, such as financial reports. Research poses the question of whether financial ratios as criteria for stock selection are of any use to Croatian investors. Financial and market data from selected publicly companies listed on the Croatian capital market are used. A two-stage portfolio selection strategy is applied, where the first stage involves selecting stocks based on the respective Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA efficiency scores. DEA models are becoming popular in stock portfolio selection given that the methodology includes numerous models that provide a great flexibility in selecting inputs and outputs, which in turn are considered as criteria for portfolio selection. Accordingly, there is much room for improvement of the current proposed strategies for selecting portfolios. In the second stage, two portfolio-weighting strategies are applied using equal proportions and score-weighting. To show whether these strategies create outstanding out–of–sample portfolios in time, time-dependent DEA Window Analysis is applied using a reference time of one year, and portfolio returns are compared with the market portfolio for each period. It is found that the financial data are a significant indicator of the future performance of a stock and a DEA-based portfolio strategy outperforms market return.
Oza, Amit R.
The focus of this study is to improve R&D effectiveness towards aerospace and defense planning in the early stages of the product development lifecycle. Emphasis is on: correct formulation of a decision problem, with special attention to account for data relationships between the individual design problem and the system capability required to size the aircraft, understanding of the meaning of the acquisition strategy objective and subjective data requirements that are required to arrive at a balanced analysis and/or "correct" mix of technology projects, understanding the meaning of the outputs that can be created from the technology analysis, and methods the researcher can use at effectively support decisions at the acquisition and conceptual design levels through utilization of a research and development portfolio strategy. The primary objectives of this study are to: (1) determine what strategy should be used to initialize conceptual design parametric sizing processes during requirements analysis for the materiel solution analysis stage of the product development lifecycle when utilizing data already constructed in the latter phase when working with a generic database management system synthesis tool integration architecture for aircraft design , and (2) assess how these new data relationships can contribute for innovative decision-making when solving acquisition hardware/technology portfolio problems. As such, an automated composable problem formulation system is developed to consider data interactions for the system architecture that manages acquisition pre-design concept refinement portfolio management, and conceptual design parametric sizing requirements. The research includes a way to: • Formalize the data storage and implement the data relationship structure with a system architecture automated through a database management system. • Allow for composable modeling, in terms of level of hardware abstraction, for the product model, mission model, and
Topology optimization of wave-propagation problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard; Sigmund, Ole
2006-01-01
Topology optimization is demonstrated as a useful tool for systematic design of wave-propagation problems. We illustrate the applicability of the method for optical, acoustic and elastic devices and structures.......Topology optimization is demonstrated as a useful tool for systematic design of wave-propagation problems. We illustrate the applicability of the method for optical, acoustic and elastic devices and structures....
A Mathematical Optimization Problem in Bioinformatics
Heyer, Laurie J.
2008-01-01
This article describes the sequence alignment problem in bioinformatics. Through examples, we formulate sequence alignment as an optimization problem and show how to compute the optimal alignment with dynamic programming. The examples and sample exercises have been used by the author in a specialized course in bioinformatics, but could be adapted…
Generalized Benders’ Decomposition for topology optimization problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Munoz Queupumil, Eduardo Javier; Stolpe, Mathias
2011-01-01
) problems with discrete design variables to global optimality. We present the theoretical aspects of the method, including a proof of finite convergence and conditions for obtaining global optimal solutions. The method is also linked to, and compared with, an Outer-Approximation approach and a mixed 0......–1 semi definite programming formulation of the considered problem. Several ways to accelerate the method are suggested and an implementation is described. Finally, a set of truss topology optimization problems are numerically solved to global optimality.......This article considers the non-linear mixed 0–1 optimization problems that appear in topology optimization of load carrying structures. The main objective is to present a Generalized Benders’ Decomposition (GBD) method for solving single and multiple load minimum compliance (maximum stiffness...
Beating the market with small portfolios: Evidence from Brazil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
André A.P. Santos
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Optimal portfolios with a restriction on the number of assets, also referred to as cardinality-constrained portfolios, have been receiving attention in the literature due to its popularity among market practitioners and retail investors. In most cases, however, the interest is in proposing efficient optimization methods to solve the problem, with little or no attention to the characteristics of the resulting portfolio such as risk-adjusted performance and turnover. We address this question by implementing a tractable reformulation of the cardinality-constrained version of the minimum variance portfolio. We analyze the out-of-sample performance of cardinality-constrained portfolios according to alternative criteria and check the robustness of the results for portfolios with alternative number of assets and under alternative re-balancing frequencies. Our empirical application for the Brazilian equities market shows that cardinality-constrained minimum variance portfolios with very few assets, e.g. 3 stocks, can deliver statistically lower portfolio risk and higher Sharpe ratios in comparison to the market index. Similar results are obtained for constrained portfolios with 5 and 10 assets and under daily, weekly, and monthly re-balancing frequencies. Our evidence indicates that it is possible to obtain better risk-adjusted performance with fewer securities in the portfolio by using an improved allocation scheme.
Topology optimization for acoustic problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dühring, Maria Bayard
2006-01-01
In this paper a method to control acoustic properties in a room with topology optimization is presented. It is shown how the squared sound pressure amplitude in a certain part of a room can be minimized by distribution of material in a design domain along the ceiling in 2D and 3D. Nice 0-1 designs...
A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James
2005-01-01
This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.
Binary Cockroach Swarm Optimization for Combinatorial Optimization Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ibidun Christiana Obagbuwa
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The Cockroach Swarm Optimization (CSO algorithm is inspired by cockroach social behavior. It is a simple and efficient meta-heuristic algorithm and has been applied to solve global optimization problems successfully. The original CSO algorithm and its variants operate mainly in continuous search space and cannot solve binary-coded optimization problems directly. Many optimization problems have their decision variables in binary. Binary Cockroach Swarm Optimization (BCSO is proposed in this paper to tackle such problems and was evaluated on the popular Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP, which is considered to be an NP-hard Combinatorial Optimization Problem (COP. A transfer function was employed to map a continuous search space CSO to binary search space. The performance of the proposed algorithm was tested firstly on benchmark functions through simulation studies and compared with the performance of existing binary particle swarm optimization and continuous space versions of CSO. The proposed BCSO was adapted to TSP and applied to a set of benchmark instances of symmetric TSP from the TSP library. The results of the proposed Binary Cockroach Swarm Optimization (BCSO algorithm on TSP were compared to other meta-heuristic algorithms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renaldas Vilkancas
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Purpose of the article: While using asymmetric risk-return measures an important role is played by selection of the investor‘s required or threshold rate of return. The scientific literature usually states that every investor should define this rate according to their degree of risk aversion. In this paper, it is attempted to look at the problem from a different perspective – empirical research is aimed at determining the influence of the threshold rate of return on the portfolio characteristics. Methodology/methods: In order to determine the threshold rate of return a stochastic dominance criterion was used. The results are verified using the commonly applied method of backtesting. Scientific aim: The aim of this paper is to propose a method allowing selecting the threshold rate of return reliably and objectively. Findings: Empirical research confirms that stochastic dominance criteria can be successfully applied to determine the rate of return preferred by the investor. Conclusions: A risk-free investment rate or simply a zero rate of return commonly used in practice is often justified neither by theoretical nor empirical studies. This work suggests determining the threshold rate of return by applying the stochastic dominance criterion
The Formation of Optimal Portfolio of Mutual Shares Funds using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yandra Arkeman
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Investments in financial assets have become a trend in the globalization era, especially the investment in mutual fund shares. Investors who want to invest in stock mutual funds can set up an investment portfolio in order to generate a minimal risk and maximum return. In this study the authors used the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm Non-dominated Sorting II (MOGA NSGA-II technique with the Markowitz portfolio principle to find the best portfolio from several mutual funds. The data used are 10 company stock mutual funds with a period of 12 months, 24 months and 36 months. The genetic algorithm parameters used are crossover probability of 0.65, mutation probability of 0.05, Generation 400 and a population numbering 20 individuals. The study produced a combination of the best portfolios for the period of 24 months with a computing time of 63,289 seconds.
VAR Portfolio Optimal: Perbandingan Antara Metode Markowitz Dan Mean Absolute Deviation
Sartono, R. Agus; Setiawan, Arie Andika
2006-01-01
Portfolio selection method which have been introduced by Harry Markowitz (1952) used variance or deviation standard as a measure of risk. Kanno and Yamazaki (1991) introduced another method and used mean absolute deviation as a measure of risk instead of variance. The Value-at Risk (VaR) is a relatively new method to capitalized risk that been used by financial institutions. The aim of this research is compare between mean variance and mean absolute deviation of two portfolios. Next, we attem...
Optimization and inverse problems in electromagnetism
Wiak, Sławomir
2003-01-01
From 12 to 14 September 2002, the Academy of Humanities and Economics (AHE) hosted the workshop "Optimization and Inverse Problems in Electromagnetism". After this bi-annual event, a large number of papers were assembled and combined in this book. During the workshop recent developments and applications in optimization and inverse methodologies for electromagnetic fields were discussed. The contributions selected for the present volume cover a wide spectrum of inverse and optimal electromagnetic methodologies, ranging from theoretical to practical applications. A number of new optimal and inverse methodologies were proposed. There are contributions related to dedicated software. Optimization and Inverse Problems in Electromagnetism consists of three thematic chapters, covering: -General papers (survey of specific aspects of optimization and inverse problems in electromagnetism), -Methodologies, -Industrial Applications. The book can be useful to students of electrical and electronics engineering, computer sci...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kazagic, Anes; Merzic, Ajla; Redzic, Elma; Music, Mustafa
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Guidelines for power utilities to reach specific decarbonisation targets offered. • Optimization model of RES share to be introduced into power system is proposed. • Single criteria analysis and multicriteria sustainability assessment are applied. • The optimization method has been demonstrated on a real power system. • In the considered case, HIGH RES scenario showed to be the preferable one. - Abstract: This paper provides guidelines and principles for power utilities to reach specific energy and decarbonisation targets. Method of power generation portfolio optimization, as function of sustainability and decarbonisation, along with appropriate criteria, has been proposed. Application of this optimization method has been demonstrated on a real power system – power utility JP Elektroprivreda BiH d.d. – Sarajevo (EPBiH), a typical example of South East European power system. The software tool WASP IV has been employed in the analysis, in order to define the dynamics and an optimized expansion of generation portfolio of the power system under consideration for the next period. The mid-term generation portfolio development plan for the EPBiH power system until year 2030 has been made during this research, taking into account the shutdown dynamics of existing power units and commissioning new ones, in order to provide safe supply of electric and heat energy for local consumers. Three basic scenario of renewable energy sources (RES) expansion have been analysed to reach specific RES and decarbonisation targets set for 2030, including RES share increase from the current level of 18% up to 35% (LOW RES), 45% (MID RES) and 55% (HIGH RES). Effects to the sustainability are considered through environmental, economic and social indicators. Multicriteria sustainability assessment gave an advantage to the HIGH RES, under assumption of equal weighting factors of economic and environment groups of indicators. Also, single criteria analysis has been
Herman, Jonathan D.; Zeff, Harrison B.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.
2014-10-01
While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, "optimal" solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results
Features for Exploiting Black-Box Optimization Problem Structure
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tierney, Kevin; Malitsky, Yuri; Abell, Tinus
2013-01-01
landscape of BBO problems and show how an algorithm portfolio approach can exploit these general, problem indepen- dent features and outperform the utilization of any single minimization search strategy. We test our methodology on data from the GECCO Workshop on BBO Benchmarking 2012, which contains 21...
Concurrent credit portfolio losses.
Sicking, Joachim; Guhr, Thomas; Schäfer, Rudi
2018-01-01
We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. JEL codes: C32, F34, G21, G32, H81.
FIREWORKS ALGORITHM FOR UNCONSTRAINED FUNCTION OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evans BAIDOO
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Modern real world science and engineering problems can be classified as multi-objective optimisation problems which demand for expedient and efficient stochastic algorithms to respond to the optimization needs. This paper presents an object-oriented software application that implements a firework optimization algorithm for function optimization problems. The algorithm, a kind of parallel diffuse optimization algorithm is based on the explosive phenomenon of fireworks. The algorithm presented promising results when compared to other population or iterative based meta-heuristic algorithm after it was experimented on five standard benchmark problems. The software application was implemented in Java with interactive interface which allow for easy modification and extended experimentation. Additionally, this paper validates the effect of runtime on the algorithm performance.
Approximative solutions of stochastic optimization problem
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Lachout, Petr
2010-01-01
Roč. 46, č. 3 (2010), s. 513-523 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic optimization problem * sensitivity * approximative solution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/SI/lachout-approximative solutions of stochastic optimization problem.pdf
Problem of detecting inclusions by topological optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. Faye
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper we propose a new method to detect inclusions. The proposed method is based on shape and topological optimization tools. In fact after presenting the problem, we use topologication optimization tools to detect inclusions in the domain. Numerical results are presented.
VAR Portfolio Optimal: Perbandingan Antara Metode Markowitz dan Mean Absolute Deviation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Agus Sartono
2009-05-01
Full Text Available Portfolio selection method which have been introduced by Harry Markowitz (1952 used variance or deviation standard as a measure of risk. Kanno and Yamazaki (1991 introduced another method and used mean absolute deviation as a measure of risk instead of variance. The Value-at Risk (VaR is a relatively new method to capitalized risk that been used by financial institutions. The aim of this research is compare between mean variance and mean absolute deviation of two portfolios. Next, we attempt to assess the VaR of two portfolios using delta normal method and historical simulation. We use the secondary data from the Jakarta Stock Exchange – LQ45 during 2003. We find that there is a weak-positive correlation between deviation standard and return in both portfolios. The VaR nolmal delta based on mean absolute deviation method eventually is higher than the VaR normal delta based on mean variance method. However, based on the historical simulation the VaR of two methods is statistically insignificant. Thus, the deviation standard is sufficient measures of portfolio risk.Keywords: optimalisasi portofolio, mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, value-at-risk, metode delta normal, metode simulasi historis
Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti
2017-01-01
A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.
Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem
F. Cong (Fei); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)
2017-01-01
textabstractThis paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method
Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem
Cong, F.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2016-01-01
This paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method (SGBM), for
Accurate and Robust Numerical Methods for the Dynamic Portfolio Management Problem
Cong, F.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2016-01-01
This paper enhances a well-known dynamic portfolio management algorithm, the BGSS algorithm, proposed by Brandt et al. (Review of Financial Studies, 18(3):831–873, 2005). We equip this algorithm with the components from a recently developed method, the Stochastic Grid Bundling Method (SGBM), for
Stochastic global optimization as a filtering problem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stinis, Panos
2012-01-01
We present a reformulation of stochastic global optimization as a filtering problem. The motivation behind this reformulation comes from the fact that for many optimization problems we cannot evaluate exactly the objective function to be optimized. Similarly, we may not be able to evaluate exactly the functions involved in iterative optimization algorithms. For example, we may only have access to noisy measurements of the functions or statistical estimates provided through Monte Carlo sampling. This makes iterative optimization algorithms behave like stochastic maps. Naive global optimization amounts to evolving a collection of realizations of this stochastic map and picking the realization with the best properties. This motivates the use of filtering techniques to allow focusing on realizations that are more promising than others. In particular, we present a filtering reformulation of global optimization in terms of a special case of sequential importance sampling methods called particle filters. The increasing popularity of particle filters is based on the simplicity of their implementation and their flexibility. We utilize the flexibility of particle filters to construct a stochastic global optimization algorithm which can converge to the optimal solution appreciably faster than naive global optimization. Several examples of parametric exponential density estimation are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the approach.
Analysis of portfolio optimization with lot of stocks amount constraint: case study index LQ45
Chin, Liem; Chendra, Erwinna; Sukmana, Agus
2018-01-01
To form an optimum portfolio (in the sense of minimizing risk and / or maximizing return), the commonly used model is the mean-variance model of Markowitz. However, there is no amount of lots of stocks constraint. And, retail investors in Indonesia cannot do short selling. So, in this study we will develop an existing model by adding an amount of lot of stocks and short-selling constraints to get the minimum risk of portfolio with and without any target return. We will analyse the stocks listed in the LQ45 index based on the stock market capitalization. To perform this analysis, we will use Solver that available in Microsoft Excel.
Topology optimization for transient heat transfer problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zeidan, Said; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov
The focus of this work is on passive control of transient heat transfer problems using the topology optimization (TopOpt) method [1]. The goal is to find distributions of a limited amount of phase change material (PCM), within a given design domain, which optimizes the heat energy storage [2]. Our......, TopOpt has later been extended to transient problems in mechanics and photonics (e.g. [5], [6] and [7]). In the presented approach, the optimization is gradient-based, where in each iteration the non-steady heat conduction equation is solved,using the finite element method and an appropriate time......-stepping scheme. A PCM can efficiently absorb heat while keeping its temperature nearly unchanged [8]. The use of PCM ine.g. electronics [9] and mechanics [10], yields improved performance and lower costs depending on a.o., the spatial distribution of PCM.The considered problem consists in optimizing...
Optimal portfolio selection in a Lévy market with uncontrolled cash flow and only risky assets
Zeng, Yan; Li, Zhongfei; Wu, Huiling
2013-03-01
This article considers an investor who has an exogenous cash flow evolving according to a Lévy process and invests in a financial market consisting of only risky assets, whose prices are governed by exponential Lévy processes. Two continuous-time portfolio selection problems are studied for the investor. One is a benchmark problem, and the other is a mean-variance problem. The first problem is solved by adopting the stochastic dynamic programming approach, and the obtained results are extended to the second problem by employing the duality theory. Closed-form solutions of these two problems are derived. Some existing results are found to be special cases of our results.
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen
2008-01-01
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es
2008-12-15
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.
Stochastic Linear Quadratic Optimal Control Problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, S.; Yong, J.
2001-01-01
This paper is concerned with the stochastic linear quadratic optimal control problem (LQ problem, for short) for which the coefficients are allowed to be random and the cost functional is allowed to have a negative weight on the square of the control variable. Some intrinsic relations among the LQ problem, the stochastic maximum principle, and the (linear) forward-backward stochastic differential equations are established. Some results involving Riccati equation are discussed as well
Topology optimization of Channel flow problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gersborg-Hansen, Allan; Sigmund, Ole; Haber, R. B.
2005-01-01
function which measures either some local aspect of the velocity field or a global quantity, such as the rate of energy dissipation. We use the finite element method to model the flow, and we solve the optimization problem with a gradient-based math-programming algorithm that is driven by analytical......This paper describes a topology design method for simple two-dimensional flow problems. We consider steady, incompressible laminar viscous flows at low to moderate Reynolds numbers. This makes the flow problem non-linear and hence a non-trivial extension of the work of [Borrvall&Petersson 2002......]. Further, the inclusion of inertia effects significantly alters the physics, enabling solutions of new classes of optimization problems, such as velocity--driven switches, that are not addressed by the earlier method. Specifically, we determine optimal layouts of channel flows that extremize a cost...
Chiu, Mei Choi; Pun, Chi Seng; Wong, Hoi Ying
2017-08-01
Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ 1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the dimensionality issue. The resulting portfolio becomes a sparse portfolio that selects stocks with a data-driven procedure and hence offers a stable mean-variance portfolio in practice. When the number of observations becomes large, the LPO portfolio converges to the oracle optimal portfolio, which is free of estimation error, even though the number of stocks grows faster than the number of observations. Our numerical and empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
The Optimal Portfolio of PAYG Benefits and Funded Pensions in Germany
Anders, Christoph; Groneck, Max
The combination of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and a self-funded pension system is studied from a portfolio perspective considering the trade-off between speculation and hedging. We analyze the German PAYG social security system and subsidized private savings (Riester pension). The return and the risk
Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng
This paper presents a novel method to analyze the optimal generation mix based on portfolio theory with considering the basic condition for power supply, which means that electricity generation corresponds with load curve. The optimization of portfolio is integrated with the calculation of a capacity factor of each generation in order to satisfy the basic condition for power supply. Besides, each generation is considered to be an asset, and risks of the generation asset both in its operation period and construction period are considered. Environmental measures are evaluated through restriction of CO2 emissions, which are indicated by CO2 price. Numerical examples show the optimal generation mix according to risks such as the deviation of capacity factor of nuclear power or restriction of CO2 emissions, the possibility of introduction of clean coal technology (IGCC, CCS) or renewable energy, and so on. The results of this work will be possibly applied as setting the target of the generation mix for the future according to prospects of risks of each generation and restrictions of CO2 emissions.
Path optimization method for the sign problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ohnishi Akira
2018-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a path optimization method (POM to evade the sign problem in the Monte-Carlo calculations for complex actions. Among many approaches to the sign problem, the Lefschetz-thimble path-integral method and the complex Langevin method are promising and extensively discussed. In these methods, real field variables are complexified and the integration manifold is determined by the flow equations or stochastically sampled. When we have singular points of the action or multiple critical points near the original integral surface, however, we have a risk to encounter the residual and global sign problems or the singular drift term problem. One of the ways to avoid the singular points is to optimize the integration path which is designed not to hit the singular points of the Boltzmann weight. By specifying the one-dimensional integration-path as z = t +if(t(f ϵ R and by optimizing f(t to enhance the average phase factor, we demonstrate that we can avoid the sign problem in a one-variable toy model for which the complex Langevin method is found to fail. In this proceedings, we propose POM and discuss how we can avoid the sign problem in a toy model. We also discuss the possibility to utilize the neural network to optimize the path.
Topology optimization of fluid mechanics problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gersborg-Hansen, Allan
While topology optimization for solid continuum structures have been studied for about 20 years and for the special case of trusses for many more years, topology optimization of fluid mechanics problems is more recent. Borrvall and Petersson [1] is the seminal reference for topology optimization......D Navier-Stokes equation as well as an example with convection dominated transport in 2D Stokes flow. Using Stokes flow limits the range of applications; nonetheless, the present work gives a proof-of-concept for the application of the method within fluid mechanics problems and it remains...... processing tool. Prior to design manufacturing this allows the engineer to quantify the performance of the computed topology design using standard, credible analysis tools with a body-fitted mesh. [1] Borrvall and Petersson (2003) "Topology optimization of fluids in Stokes flow", Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids...
Topology Optimization for Transient Wave Propagation Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Matzen, René
The study of elastic and optical waves together with intensive material research has revolutionized everyday as well as cutting edge technology in very tangible ways within the last century. Therefore it is important to continue the investigative work towards improving existing as well as innovate...... new technology, by designing new materials and their layout. The thesis presents a general framework for applying topology optimization in the design of material layouts for transient wave propagation problems. In contrast to the high level of modeling in the frequency domain, time domain topology...... optimization is still in its infancy. A generic optimization problem is formulated with an objective function that can be field, velocity, and acceleration dependent, as well as it can accommodate the dependency of filtered signals essential in signal shape optimization [P3]. The analytical design gradients...
A joint routing and speed optimization problem
Fukasawa, Ricardo; He, Qie; Santos, Fernando; Song, Yongjia
2016-01-01
Fuel cost contributes to a significant portion of operating cost in cargo transportation. Though classic routing models usually treat fuel cost as input data, fuel consumption heavily depends on the travel speed, which has led to the study of optimizing speeds over a given fixed route. In this paper, we propose a joint routing and speed optimization problem to minimize the total cost, which includes the fuel consumption cost. The only assumption made on the dependence between the fuel cost an...
Optimal consumption problem in the Vasicek model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jakub Trybuła
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the problem of an optimal consumption strategy on the infinite time horizon based on the hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility when the interest rate is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Using the method of subsolution and supersolution we obtain the existence of solutions of the dynamic programming equation. We illustrate the paper with a numerical example of the optimal consumption strategy and the value function.
A Bicriteria Approach Identifying Nondominated Portfolios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Pereira
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We explore a portfolio constructive model, formulated in terms of satisfaction of a given set of technical requirements, with the minimum number of projects and minimum redundancy. An algorithm issued from robust portfolio modeling is adapted to a vector model, modifying the dominance condition as convenient, in order to find the set of nondominated portfolios, as solutions of a bicriteria integer linear programming problem. In order to improve the former algorithm, a process finding an optimal solution of a monocriteria version of this problem is proposed, which is further used as a first feasible solution aiding to find nondominated solutions more rapidly. Next, a sorting process is applied on the input data or information matrix, which is intended to prune nonfeasible solutions early in the constructive algorithm. Numerical examples show that the optimization and sorting processes both improve computational efficiency of the original algorithm. Their limits are also shown on certain complex instances.
Statistically Efficient Construction of α-Risk-Minimizing Portfolio
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hiroyuki Taniai
2012-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator for α-risk-minimizing portfolio weights. Based on the work of Bassett et al. (2004, an α-risk-minimizing portfolio optimization is formulated as a linear quantile regression problem. The quantile regression method uses a pseudolikelihood based on an asymmetric Laplace reference density, and asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained. We apply the results of Hallin et al. (2008 to the problem of constructing α-risk-minimizing portfolios using residual signs and ranks and a general reference density. Monte Carlo simulations assess the performance of the proposed method. Empirical applications are also investigated.
Multiparameter Optimization for Electromagnetic Inversion Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Elkattan
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Electromagnetic (EM methods have been extensively used in geophysical investigations such as mineral and hydrocarbon exploration as well as in geological mapping and structural studies. In this paper, we developed an inversion methodology for Electromagnetic data to determine physical parameters of a set of horizontal layers. We conducted Forward model using transmission line method. In the inversion part, we solved multi parameter optimization problem where, the parameters are conductivity, dielectric constant, and permeability of each layer. The optimization problem was solved by simulated annealing approach. The inversion methodology was tested using a set of models representing common geological formations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arreola Hernandez, Jose
2014-01-01
This article models the dependence risk and resource allocation characteristics of two 20-stock coal–uranium and oil–gas sector portfolios from the Australian market in the context of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The modeling framework implemented consists of pair vine copulas and, linear and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods with respect to five risk measures. The paper's objectives are to find out if the oil and gas stocks are riskier than the coal and uranium stocks, to identify the optimization method and risk measure that produce the best risk-return trade-off, to recognize the stocks in which the optimal weight allocations converge on average, and to acknowledge the vine copula model that best accounts for the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. The research findings indicate that the oil stocks have higher dependence risk than the coal, uranium and gas stocks in financial crisis periods. The higher risk of the oil stocks is confirmed by the larger concentration of symmetric and asymmetric dependence they have in the negative tail. The canonical vine (c-vine) copula model is observed to better capture the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. The combination of a pair c-vine copula and nonlinear portfolio optimization produces the highest return relative to risk. The optimal weight allocations converge on average in some stocks. - Highlights: • Vine copula dependence modeling of coal, uranium, oil and gas stocks • Oil stocks are riskier than coal, uranium and gas stocks in financial crisis periods. • The c-vine model better captures the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. • Vine copulas and nonlinear optimization combined produce the best results. • The optimal weight allocations converge on average in some stocks
Solving global optimization problems on GPU cluster
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barkalov, Konstantin; Gergel, Victor; Lebedev, Ilya [Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod, Gagarin Avenue 23, 603950 Nizhni Novgorod (Russian Federation)
2016-06-08
The paper contains the results of investigation of a parallel global optimization algorithm combined with a dimension reduction scheme. This allows solving multidimensional problems by means of reducing to data-independent subproblems with smaller dimension solved in parallel. The new element implemented in the research consists in using several graphic accelerators at different computing nodes. The paper also includes results of solving problems of well-known multiextremal test class GKLS on Lobachevsky supercomputer using tens of thousands of GPU cores.
Robust Utility Maximization Under Convex Portfolio Constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matoussi, Anis; Mezghani, Hanen; Mnif, Mohamed
2015-01-01
We study a robust maximization problem from terminal wealth and consumption under a convex constraints on the portfolio. We state the existence and the uniqueness of the consumption–investment strategy by studying the associated quadratic backward stochastic differential equation. We characterize the optimal control by using the duality method and deriving a dynamic maximum principle
Simulated annealing algorithm for optimal capital growth
Luo, Yong; Zhu, Bo; Tang, Yong
2014-08-01
We investigate the problem of dynamic optimal capital growth of a portfolio. A general framework that one strives to maximize the expected logarithm utility of long term growth rate was developed. Exact optimization algorithms run into difficulties in this framework and this motivates the investigation of applying simulated annealing optimized algorithm to optimize the capital growth of a given portfolio. Empirical results with real financial data indicate that the approach is inspiring for capital growth portfolio.
Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, Zhiyong
2013-01-01
This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right
Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yu, Zhiyong, E-mail: yuzhiyong@sdu.edu.cn [Shandong University, School of Mathematics (China)
2013-12-15
This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right.
Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.
2017-12-01
The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.
A characterization of optimal portfolios under the tail mean-variance criterion
Owadally, I.; Landsman, Z.
2013-01-01
The tail mean–variance model was recently introduced for use in risk management and portfolio choice; it involves a criterion that focuses on the risk of rare but large losses, which is particularly important when losses have heavy-tailed distributions. If returns or losses follow a multivariate elliptical distribution, the use of risk measures that satisfy certain well-known properties is equivalent to risk management in the classical mean–variance framework. The tail mean–variance criterion...
Problems of the power plant shield optimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abagyan, A.A.; Dubinin, A.A.; Zhuravlev, V.I.; Kurachenko, Yu.A.; Petrov, Eh.E.
1981-01-01
General approaches to the solution of problems on the nuclear power plant radiation shield optimization are considered. The requirements to the shield parameters are formulated in a form of restrictions on a number of functionals, determined by the solution of γ quantum and neutron transport equations or dimensional and weight characteristics of shield components. Functional determined by weight-dimensional parameters (shield cost, mass and thickness) and functionals, determined by radiation fields (equivalent dose rate, produced by neutrons and γ quanta, activation functional, radiation functional, heat flux, integral heat flux in a particular part of the shield volume, total energy flux through a particular shield surface are considered. The following methods of numerical solution of simplified optimization problems are discussed: semiempirical methods using radiation transport physical leaks, numerical solution of approximate transport equations, numerical solution of transport equations for the simplest configurations making possible to decrease essentially a number of variables in the problem. The conclusion is drawn that the attained level of investigations on the problem of nuclear power plant shield optimization gives the possibility to pass on at present to the solution of problems with a more detailed account of the real shield operating conditions (shield temperature field account, its strength and other characteristics) [ru
Statistical physics of hard optimization problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zdeborova, L.
2009-01-01
Optimization is fundamental in many areas of science, from computer science and information theory to engineering and statistical physics, as well as to biology or social sciences. It typically involves a large number of variables and a cost function depending on these variables. Optimization problems in the non-deterministic polynomial (NP)-complete class are particularly difficult, it is believed that the number of operations required to minimize the cost function is in the most difficult cases exponential in the system size. However, even in an NP-complete problem the practically arising instances might, in fact, be easy to solve. The principal question we address in this article is: How to recognize if an NP-complete constraint satisfaction problem is typically hard and what are the main reasons for this? We adopt approaches from the statistical physics of disordered systems, in particular the cavity method developed originally to describe glassy systems. We describe new properties of the space of solutions in two of the most studied constraint satisfaction problems - random satisfy ability and random graph coloring. We suggest a relation between the existence of the so-called frozen variables and the algorithmic hardness of a problem. Based on these insights, we introduce a new class of problems which we named ”locked” constraint satisfaction, where the statistical description is easily solvable, but from the algorithmic point of view they are even more challenging than the canonical satisfy ability.
Statistical physics of hard optimization problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zdeborova, L.
2009-01-01
Optimization is fundamental in many areas of science, from computer science and information theory to engineering and statistical physics, as well as to biology or social sciences. It typically involves a large number of variables and a cost function depending on these variables. Optimization problems in the non-deterministic polynomial-complete class are particularly difficult, it is believed that the number of operations required to minimize the cost function is in the most difficult cases exponential in the system size. However, even in an non-deterministic polynomial-complete problem the practically arising instances might, in fact, be easy to solve. The principal the question we address in the article is: How to recognize if an non-deterministic polynomial-complete constraint satisfaction problem is typically hard and what are the main reasons for this? We adopt approaches from the statistical physics of disordered systems, in particular the cavity method developed originally to describe glassy systems. We describe new properties of the space of solutions in two of the most studied constraint satisfaction problems - random satisfiability and random graph coloring. We suggest a relation between the existence of the so-called frozen variables and the algorithmic hardness of a problem. Based on these insights, we introduce a new class of problems which we named 'locked' constraint satisfaction, where the statistical description is easily solvable, but from the algorithmic point of view they are even more challenging than the canonical satisfiability (Authors)
Statistical physics of hard optimization problems
Zdeborová, Lenka
2009-06-01
Optimization is fundamental in many areas of science, from computer science and information theory to engineering and statistical physics, as well as to biology or social sciences. It typically involves a large number of variables and a cost function depending on these variables. Optimization problems in the non-deterministic polynomial (NP)-complete class are particularly difficult, it is believed that the number of operations required to minimize the cost function is in the most difficult cases exponential in the system size. However, even in an NP-complete problem the practically arising instances might, in fact, be easy to solve. The principal question we address in this article is: How to recognize if an NP-complete constraint satisfaction problem is typically hard and what are the main reasons for this? We adopt approaches from the statistical physics of disordered systems, in particular the cavity method developed originally to describe glassy systems. We describe new properties of the space of solutions in two of the most studied constraint satisfaction problems - random satisfiability and random graph coloring. We suggest a relation between the existence of the so-called frozen variables and the algorithmic hardness of a problem. Based on these insights, we introduce a new class of problems which we named "locked" constraint satisfaction, where the statistical description is easily solvable, but from the algorithmic point of view they are even more challenging than the canonical satisfiability.
Ahmet Demir; Utku Kose
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT In the fields which require finding the most appropriate value, optimization became a vital approach to employ effective solutions. With the use of optimization techniques, many different fields in the modern life have found solutions to their real-world based problems. In this context, classical optimization techniques have had an important popularity. But after a while, more advanced optimization problems required the use of more effective techniques. At this point, Computer Sc...
Ahmet Demir; Utku kose
2017-01-01
In the fields which require finding the most appropriate value, optimization became a vital approach to employ effective solutions. With the use of optimization techniques, many different fields in the modern life have found solutions to their real-world based problems. In this context, classical optimization techniques have had an important popularity. But after a while, more advanced optimization problems required the use of more effective techniques. At this point, Computer Science took an...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Go, Roderick S.; Munoz, Francisco D.; Watson, Jean-Paul
2016-01-01
Highlights: • We present a MILP to co-optimize generation, transmission, and storage investments. • We find significant value in co-optimized storage via investment deferrals. • Operational savings from bulk services are small relative to investment deferrals. • Co-optimized energy storage significantly reduces prices associated with RPS. - Abstract: Worldwide, environmental regulations such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) are being broadly adopted to promote renewable energy investments. With corresponding increases in renewable energy deployments, there is growing interest in grid-scale energy storage systems (ESS) to provide the flexibility needed to efficiently deliver renewable power to consumers. Our contribution in this paper is to introduce a unified generation, transmission, and bulk ESS expansion planning model subject to an RPS constraint, formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program (MILP) optimization model, which we then use to study the impact of co-optimization and evaluate the economic interaction between investments in these three asset classes in achieving high renewable penetrations. We present numerical case studies using the 24-bus IEEE RTS-96 test system considering wind and solar as available renewable energy resources, and demonstrate that up to $180 million/yr in total cost savings can result from the co-optimization of all three assets, relative to a situation in which no ESS investment options are available. Surprisingly, we find that co-optimized bulk ESS investments provide significant economic value through investment deferrals in transmission and generation capacity, but very little savings in operational cost. Finally, we observe that planning transmission and generation infrastructure first and later optimizing ESS investments—as is common in industry—captures at most 1.7% ($3 million/yr) of the savings that result from co-optimizing all assets simultaneously.
Finite Optimal Stopping Problems: The Seller's Perspective
Hemmati, Mehdi; Smith, J. Cole
2011-01-01
We consider a version of an optimal stopping problem, in which a customer is presented with a finite set of items, one by one. The customer is aware of the number of items in the finite set and the minimum and maximum possible value of each item, and must purchase exactly one item. When an item is presented to the customer, she or he observes its…
Fuzzy Investment Portfolio Selection Models Based on Interval Analysis Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haifeng Guo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper employs fuzzy set theory to solve the unintuitive problem of the Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio model and extend it to a fuzzy investment portfolio selection model. Our model establishes intervals for expected returns and risk preference, which can take into account investors' different investment appetite and thus can find the optimal resolution for each interval. In the empirical part, we test this model in Chinese stocks investment and find that this model can fulfill different kinds of investors’ objectives. Finally, investment risk can be decreased when we add investment limit to each stock in the portfolio, which indicates our model is useful in practice.
Optimal control problem for the extended Fisher–Kolmogorov equation
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In this paper, the optimal control problem for the extended Fisher–Kolmogorov equation is studied. The optimal control under boundary condition is given, the existence of optimal solution to the equation is proved and the optimality system is established.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N.J. Timofeeva
2011-05-01
Full Text Available This article examines the financial planning of working capital organizations, in particular presented a software implementation of the algorithm analyzes the budget forecast working capital, identify and take advantage of temporarily free money using a model of a decision on the choice of the optimal bond portfolio, consistent with the free flow of liquidity of the enterprise.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmet Demir
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In the fields which require finding the most appropriate value, optimization became a vital approach to employ effective solutions. With the use of optimization techniques, many different fields in the modern life have found solutions to their real-world based problems. In this context, classical optimization techniques have had an important popularity. But after a while, more advanced optimization problems required the use of more effective techniques. At this point, Computer Science took an important role on providing software related techniques to improve the associated literature. Today, intelligent optimization techniques based on Artificial Intelligence are widely used for optimization problems. The objective of this paper is to provide a comparative study on the employment of classical optimization solutions and Artificial Intelligence solutions for enabling readers to have idea about the potential of intelligent optimization techniques. At this point, two recently developed intelligent optimization algorithms, Vortex Optimization Algorithm (VOA and Cognitive Development Optimization Algorithm (CoDOA, have been used to solve some multidisciplinary optimization problems provided in the source book Thomas' Calculus 11th Edition and the obtained results have compared with classical optimization solutions.
Portfolio optimization using a hybrid of fuzzy ANP, VIKOR and TOPSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Raei
2012-10-01
Full Text Available One of the primary questions in asset management is to find good combinations of different assets and this has been an interesting area of research for over half a century. The proposed model of this paper uses decision makers' feedbacks based on multiple criteria decision making technique to find an appropriate portfolio. We first select some important financial criteria and then using decision makers' opinions and by implementation of some fuzzy network analysis we find appropriate weights of the asset. The proposed model uses two multiple criteria techniques namely TOPSIS and VIKOR and the model is examined for some real-world data from Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of the implementation of the proposed model have been examined against Markowitz traditional model. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs reasonably well compared with alternative method.
Portfolios with fuzzy returns: Selection strategies based on semi-infinite programming
Vercher, Enriqueta
2008-08-01
This paper provides new models for portfolio selection in which the returns on securities are considered fuzzy numbers rather than random variables. The investor's problem is to find the portfolio that minimizes the risk of achieving a return that is not less than the return of a riskless asset. The corresponding optimal portfolio is derived using semi-infinite programming in a soft framework. The return on each asset and their membership functions are described using historical data. The investment risk is approximated by mean intervals which evaluate the downside risk for a given fuzzy portfolio. This approach is illustrated with a numerical example.
Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jessen, Cathrine
2014-01-01
on the theme, originally proposed by Fischer Black. In CPPI, a financial institution guarantees a floor value for the “insured” portfolio and adjusts the stock/bond mix to produce a leveraged exposure to the risky assets, which depends on how far the portfolio value is above the floor. Plain-vanilla portfolio...... insurance largely died with the crash of 1987, but CPPI is still going strong. In the frictionless markets of finance theory, the issuer’s strategy to hedge its liability under the contract is clear, but in the real world with transactions costs and stochastic jump risk, the optimal strategy is less obvious...
Linux software for large topology optimization problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
evolving product, which allows a parallel solution of the PDE, it lacks the important feature that the matrix-generation part of the computations is localized to each processor. This is well-known to be critical for obtaining a useful speedup on a Linux cluster and it motivates the search for a COMSOL......-like package for large topology optimization problems. One candidate for such software is developed for Linux by Sandia Nat’l Lab in the USA being the Sundance system. Sundance also uses a symbolic representation of the PDE and a scalable numerical solution is achieved by employing the underlying Trilinos...
Castelletti, A.; Schmitt, R. J. P.; Bizzi, S.; Kondolf, G. M.
2017-12-01
Dams are essential to meet growing water and energy demands. While dams cumulatively impact downstream rivers on network-scales, dam development is mostly based on ad-hoc economic and environmental assessments of single dams. Here, we provide evidence that replacing this ad-hoc approach with early strategic planning of entire dam portfolios can greatly reduce conflicts between economic and environmental objectives of dams. In the Mekong Basin (800,000km2), 123 major dam sites (status-quo: 56 built and under construction) could generate 280,000 GWh/yr of hydropower. Cumulatively, dams risk interrupting the basin's sediment dynamics with severe impacts on livelihoods and eco-systems. To evaluate cumulative impacts and benefits of the ad-hoc planned status-quo portfolio, we combine the CASCADE sediment connectivity model with data on hydropower production and sediment trapping at each dam site. We couple CASCADE to a multi-objective genetic algorithm (BORG) identifying a) portfolios resulting in an optimal trade-off between cumulative sediment trapping and hydropower production and b) an optimal development sequence for each portfolio. We perform this analysis first for the pristine basin (i.e., without pre-existing dams) and then starting from the status-quo portfolio, deriving policy recommendations for which dams should be prioritized in the near future. The status-quo portfolio creates a sub-optimal trade-off between hydropower and sediment trapping, exploiting 50 % of the basin's hydro-electric potential and trapping 60 % of the sediment load. Alternative optimal portfolios could have produced equivalent hydropower for 30 % sediment trapping. Imminent development of mega-dams in the lower basin will increase hydropower production by 20 % but increase sediment trapping to >90 %. In contrast, following an optimal development sequence can still increase hydropower by 30 % with limited additional sediment trapping by prioritizing dams in upper parts of the basin. Our
Hybrid intelligent optimization methods for engineering problems
Pehlivanoglu, Yasin Volkan
The purpose of optimization is to obtain the best solution under certain conditions. There are numerous optimization methods because different problems need different solution methodologies; therefore, it is difficult to construct patterns. Also mathematical modeling of a natural phenomenon is almost based on differentials. Differential equations are constructed with relative increments among the factors related to yield. Therefore, the gradients of these increments are essential to search the yield space. However, the landscape of yield is not a simple one and mostly multi-modal. Another issue is differentiability. Engineering design problems are usually nonlinear and they sometimes exhibit discontinuous derivatives for the objective and constraint functions. Due to these difficulties, non-gradient-based algorithms have become more popular in recent decades. Genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms are popular, non-gradient based algorithms. Both are population-based search algorithms and have multiple points for initiation. A significant difference from a gradient-based method is the nature of the search methodologies. For example, randomness is essential for the search in GA or PSO. Hence, they are also called stochastic optimization methods. These algorithms are simple, robust, and have high fidelity. However, they suffer from similar defects, such as, premature convergence, less accuracy, or large computational time. The premature convergence is sometimes inevitable due to the lack of diversity. As the generations of particles or individuals in the population evolve, they may lose their diversity and become similar to each other. To overcome this issue, we studied the diversity concept in GA and PSO algorithms. Diversity is essential for a healthy search, and mutations are the basic operators to provide the necessary variety within a population. After having a close scrutiny of the diversity concept based on qualification and
Relaxations to Sparse Optimization Problems and Applications
Skau, Erik West
Parsimony is a fundamental property that is applied to many characteristics in a variety of fields. Of particular interest are optimization problems that apply rank, dimensionality, or support in a parsimonious manner. In this thesis we study some optimization problems and their relaxations, and focus on properties and qualities of the solutions of these problems. The Gramian tensor decomposition problem attempts to decompose a symmetric tensor as a sum of rank one tensors.We approach the Gramian tensor decomposition problem with a relaxation to a semidefinite program. We study conditions which ensure that the solution of the relaxed semidefinite problem gives the minimal Gramian rank decomposition. Sparse representations with learned dictionaries are one of the leading image modeling techniques for image restoration. When learning these dictionaries from a set of training images, the sparsity parameter of the dictionary learning algorithm strongly influences the content of the dictionary atoms.We describe geometrically the content of trained dictionaries and how it changes with the sparsity parameter.We use statistical analysis to characterize how the different content is used in sparse representations. Finally, a method to control the structure of the dictionaries is demonstrated, allowing us to learn a dictionary which can later be tailored for specific applications. Variations of dictionary learning can be broadly applied to a variety of applications.We explore a pansharpening problem with a triple factorization variant of coupled dictionary learning. Another application of dictionary learning is computer vision. Computer vision relies heavily on object detection, which we explore with a hierarchical convolutional dictionary learning model. Data fusion of disparate modalities is a growing topic of interest.We do a case study to demonstrate the benefit of using social media data with satellite imagery to estimate hazard extents. In this case study analysis we
Frank, T. D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P. J.
2008-05-01
We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frank, T.D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P.J.
2008-01-01
We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the explicit motor unit properties and of the dynamical features of isometric force production. A constant coefficient of variation in the asymptotic regime and a nonequilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem for optimal isometric force are predicted
A hybrid iterative scheme for optimal control problems governed by ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
MRT
KEY WORDS: Optimal control problem; Fredholm integral equation; ... control problems governed by Fredholm integral and integro-differential equations is given in (Brunner and Yan, ..... The exact optimal trajectory and control functions are. 2.
Particle Swarm Optimization for Structural Design Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hamit SARUHAN
2010-02-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to employ the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO technique to a mechanical engineering design problem which is minimizing the volume of a cantilevered beam subject to bending strength constraints. Mechanical engineering design problems are complex activities which are computing capability are more and more required. The most of these problems are solved by conventional mathematical programming techniques that require gradient information. These techniques have several drawbacks from which the main one is becoming trapped in local optima. As an alternative to gradient-based techniques, the PSO does not require the evaluation of gradients of the objective function. The PSO algorithm employs the generation of guided random positions when they search for the global optimum point. The PSO which is a nature inspired heuristics search technique imitates the social behavior of bird flocking. The results obtained by the PSO are compared with Mathematical Programming (MP. It is demonstrated that the PSO performed and obtained better convergence reliability on the global optimum point than the MP. Using the MP, the volume of 2961000 mm3 was obtained while the beam volume of 2945345 mm3 was obtained by the PSO.
System and economic optimization problems of NPPs and its ideology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klimenko, A.V.; Mironovich, V.L.
2016-01-01
The iterative circuit design of optimization of system of links of nuclear fuel and energy complex (NFEC) is presented in the paper. Problems of system optimization of links NFEC as functional of NPP optimization are indicated and investigated [ru
Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hui-qiang Ma
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance efficient frontier analytically. The results show that the mean-variance efficient frontier is still a parabola in the mean-variance plane, and the optimal strategies depend not only on the total wealth but also on the stock price. Moreover, some numerical examples are given to analyze the sensitivity of the efficient frontier with respect to the elasticity parameter and to illustrate the results presented in this paper. The numerical results show that the price of risk decreases as the elasticity coefficient increases.
Frank, T.D.; Patanarapeelert, K.; Beek, P.J.
2008-01-01
We derive a fundamental relationship between the mean and the variability of isometric force. The relationship arises from an optimal collection of active motor units such that the force variability assumes a minimum (optimal isometric force). The relationship is shown to be independent of the
Finite Volumes Discretization of Topology Optimization Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Evgrafov, Anton; Gregersen, Misha Marie; Sørensen, Mads Peter
, FVMs represent a standard method of discretization within engineering communities dealing with computational uid dy- namics, transport, and convection-reaction problems. Among various avours of FVMs, cell based approaches, where all variables are associated only with cell centers, are particularly...... computations is done using nite element methods (FEMs). Despite some limited recent eorts [1, 2], we have only started to develop our understanding of the interplay between the control in the coecients and FVMs. Recent advances in discrete functional analysis allow us to analyze convergence of FVM...... of the induced parametrization of the design space that allows optimization algorithms to eciently explore it, and the ease of integration with existing computational codes in a variety of application areas, the simplicity and eciency of sensitivity analyses|all stemming from the use of the same grid throughout...
Optimization methods for activities selection problems
Mahad, Nor Faradilah; Alias, Suriana; Yaakop, Siti Zulaika; Arshad, Norul Amanina Mohd; Mazni, Elis Sofia
2017-08-01
Co-curriculum activities must be joined by every student in Malaysia and these activities bring a lot of benefits to the students. By joining these activities, the students can learn about the time management and they can developing many useful skills. This project focuses on the selection of co-curriculum activities in secondary school using the optimization methods which are the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Zero-One Goal Programming (ZOGP). A secondary school in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia was chosen as a case study. A set of questionnaires were distributed randomly to calculate the weighted for each activity based on the 3 chosen criteria which are soft skills, interesting activities and performances. The weighted was calculated by using AHP and the results showed that the most important criteria is soft skills. Then, the ZOGP model will be analyzed by using LINGO Software version 15.0. There are two priorities to be considered. The first priority which is to minimize the budget for the activities is achieved since the total budget can be reduced by RM233.00. Therefore, the total budget to implement the selected activities is RM11,195.00. The second priority which is to select the co-curriculum activities is also achieved. The results showed that 9 out of 15 activities were selected. Thus, it can concluded that AHP and ZOGP approach can be used as the optimization methods for activities selection problem.
Wavelet evolutionary network for complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing
Suganya, N. C.; Vijayalakshmi Pai, G. A.
2012-07-01
Portfolio rebalancing problem deals with resetting the proportion of different assets in a portfolio with respect to changing market conditions. The constraints included in the portfolio rebalancing problem are basic, cardinality, bounding, class and proportional transaction cost. In this study, a new heuristic algorithm named wavelet evolutionary network (WEN) is proposed for the solution of complex-constrained portfolio rebalancing problem. Initially, the empirical covariance matrix, one of the key inputs to the problem, is estimated using the wavelet shrinkage denoising technique to obtain better optimal portfolios. Secondly, the complex cardinality constraint is eliminated using k-means cluster analysis. Finally, WEN strategy with logical procedures is employed to find the initial proportion of investment in portfolio of assets and also rebalance them after certain period. Experimental studies of WEN are undertaken on Bombay Stock Exchange, India (BSE200 index, period: July 2001-July 2006) and Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan (Nikkei225 index, period: March 2002-March 2007) data sets. The result obtained using WEN is compared with the only existing counterpart named Hopfield evolutionary network (HEN) strategy and also verifies that WEN performs better than HEN. In addition, different performance metrics and data envelopment analysis are carried out to prove the robustness and efficiency of WEN over HEN strategy.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kristian
2013-01-01
arbejder på at forbedre dens IT PPM praksisser. Undersøgelsen anvender Work Design Teori til at analysere kommunens IT PPM praksisser på tværs af hierarkiske niveauer og organisatoriske enheder i bestræbelsen på, at besvare følgende tre forskningsspørgsmål:(1) Hvordan udfører en offentlig organisation...... and Van De Ven’s (2005) Work Design Teori, der sondrer mellem vertikal- og horisontal arbejdsdeling. Vertikal deling af arbejde bliver betragtet som fordelingen af autoritet, viden og resurser, hvilket undersøgelsen finder værende delt ud på fire hierarkiske niveauer: (1) det politiske niveau med den...... af det andet forskningsspørgsmål anvendes Work Design Teori til at identificere problemer indenfor tre relaterede problemområder: hierarkiske dekompositions problemer, modularitets problemer og komplekse netværks problemer. De identificerede problemer er sammenfattet i en model bestående af 14...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kristian
dansk kommune, der arbejder på at forbedre dens IT PPM praksisser. Undersøgelsen anvender Work Design Teori til at analysere kommunens IT PPM praksisser på tværs af hierarkiske niveauer og organisatoriske enheder i bestræbelsen på, at besvare følgende tre forskningsspørgsmål:(1) Hvordan udfører en...... at trække på Sinha and Van De Ven’s (2005) Work Design Teori, der sondrer mellem vertikal- og horisontal arbejdsdeling. Vertikal deling af arbejde bliver betragtet som fordelingen af autoritet, viden og resurser, hvilket undersøgelsen finder værende delt ud på fire hierarkiske niveauer: (1) det politiske...... kommunens IT projektgrupper. I besvarelsen af det andet forskningsspørgsmål anvendes Work Design Teori til at identificere problemer indenfor tre relaterede problemområder: hierarkiske dekompositions problemer, modularitets problemer og komplekse netværks problemer. De identificerede problemer er...
Bodin, P.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.
2014-12-01
Food security can be defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In Sub Saharan Africa access to food is strongly linked to local food production and the capacity to generate enough calories to sustain the local population. Therefore it is important in these regions to generate not only sufficiently high yields but also to reduce interannual variability in food production. Traditionally, climate impact simulation studies have focused on factors that underlie maximum productivity ignoring the variability in yield. By using Modern Portfolio Theory, a method stemming from economics, we here calculate optimum current and future crop selection that maintain current yield while minimizing variance, vs. maintaining variance while maximizing yield. Based on simulated yield using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the results show that current cropland distribution for many crops is close to these optimum distributions. Even so, the optimizations displayed substantial potential to either increase food production and/or to decrease its variance regionally. Our approach can also be seen as a method to create future scenarios for the sown areas of crops in regions where local food production is important for food security.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Ali Barati
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Multi-period models of portfolio selection have been developed in the literature with respect to certain assumptions. In this study, for the first time, the portfolio selection problem has been modeled based on mean-semi variance with transaction cost and minimum transaction lots considering functional constraints and fuzzy parameters. Functional constraints such as transaction cost and minimum transaction lots were included. In addition, the returns on assets parameters were considered as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. An efficient genetic algorithm (GA was designed, results were analyzed using numerical instances and sensitivity analysis were executed. In the numerical study, the problem was solved based on the presence or absence of each mode of constraints including transaction costs and minimum transaction lots. In addition, with the use of sensitivity analysis, the results of the model were presented with the variations of minimum expected rate of programming periods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shouheng Tuo
Full Text Available Harmony Search (HS and Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO as new swarm intelligent optimization algorithms have received much attention in recent years. Both of them have shown outstanding performance for solving NP-Hard optimization problems. However, they also suffer dramatic performance degradation for some complex high-dimensional optimization problems. Through a lot of experiments, we find that the HS and TLBO have strong complementarity each other. The HS has strong global exploration power but low convergence speed. Reversely, the TLBO has much fast convergence speed but it is easily trapped into local search. In this work, we propose a hybrid search algorithm named HSTLBO that merges the two algorithms together for synergistically solving complex optimization problems using a self-adaptive selection strategy. In the HSTLBO, both HS and TLBO are modified with the aim of balancing the global exploration and exploitation abilities, where the HS aims mainly to explore the unknown regions and the TLBO aims to rapidly exploit high-precision solutions in the known regions. Our experimental results demonstrate better performance and faster speed than five state-of-the-art HS variants and show better exploration power than five good TLBO variants with similar run time, which illustrates that our method is promising in solving complex high-dimensional optimization problems. The experiment on portfolio optimization problems also demonstrate that the HSTLBO is effective in solving complex read-world application.
Efficient Cardinality/Mean-Variance Portfolios
Brito, R. Pedro; Vicente, Luís Nunes
2014-01-01
International audience; We propose a novel approach to handle cardinality in portfolio selection, by means of a biobjective cardinality/mean-variance problem, allowing the investor to analyze the efficient tradeoff between return-risk and number of active positions. Recent progress in multiobjective optimization without derivatives allow us to robustly compute (in-sample) the whole cardinality/mean-variance efficient frontier, for a variety of data sets and mean-variance models. Our results s...
Firefly Mating Algorithm for Continuous Optimization Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amarita Ritthipakdee
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a swarm intelligence algorithm, called firefly mating algorithm (FMA, for solving continuous optimization problems. FMA uses genetic algorithm as the core of the algorithm. The main feature of the algorithm is a novel mating pair selection method which is inspired by the following 2 mating behaviors of fireflies in nature: (i the mutual attraction between males and females causes them to mate and (ii fireflies of both sexes are of the multiple-mating type, mating with multiple opposite sex partners. A female continues mating until her spermatheca becomes full, and, in the same vein, a male can provide sperms for several females until his sperm reservoir is depleted. This new feature enhances the global convergence capability of the algorithm. The performance of FMA was tested with 20 benchmark functions (sixteen 30-dimensional functions and four 2-dimensional ones against FA, ALC-PSO, COA, MCPSO, LWGSODE, MPSODDS, DFOA, SHPSOS, LSA, MPDPGA, DE, and GABC algorithms. The experimental results showed that the success rates of our proposed algorithm with these functions were higher than those of other algorithms and the proposed algorithm also required fewer numbers of iterations to reach the global optima.
Household portfolios and implicit risk aversion
Bucciol, A.; Miniaci, R.
2008-01-01
We derive from a sample of US households the distribution of the risk aversion implicit in their portfolio choice. Our estimate minimizes the distance between the certainty equivalent return generated with observed portfolios and portfolios that are optimal in a mean-variance framework. Taking into
Wolfe-Quintero, Kate; Brown, James Dean
1998-01-01
A portfolio of achievements, experiences, and reflections can help English-as-a-Second-Language teachers attain professional development goals and offer administrators greater insight for making informed hiring and job-performance decisions. This paper focuses on what teacher portfolios are, what their contents should be, and what their uses are…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Christian Fischer
The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark.......The present teaching portfolio has been submitted for evaluation in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the teacher training programme for Assistant Professors at Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Denmark....
Yu, Xiang
2011-01-01
We consider a model of optimal investment and consumption with both habit formation and partial observations in incomplete It\\^{o} processes market. The investor chooses his consumption under the addictive habits constraint while only observing the market stock prices but not the instantaneous rate of return. Applying the Kalman-Bucy filtering theorem and the Dynamic Programming arguments, we solve the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly for the path dependent stochas...
Optimal management with hybrid dynamics : The shallow lake problem
Reddy, P.V.; Schumacher, Hans; Engwerda, Jacob; Camlibel, M.K.; Julius, A.A.; Pasumarthy, R.
2015-01-01
In this article we analyze an optimal management problem that arises in ecological economics using hybrid systems modeling. First, we introduce a discounted autonomous infinite horizon hybrid optimal control problem and develop few tools to analyze the necessary conditions for optimality. Next,
On a Highly Nonlinear Self-Obstacle Optimal Control Problem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Di Donato, Daniela, E-mail: daniela.didonato@unitn.it [University of Trento, Department of Mathematics (Italy); Mugnai, Dimitri, E-mail: dimitri.mugnai@unipg.it [Università di Perugia, Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica (Italy)
2015-10-15
We consider a non-quadratic optimal control problem associated to a nonlinear elliptic variational inequality, where the obstacle is the control itself. We show that, fixed a desired profile, there exists an optimal solution which is not far from it. Detailed characterizations of the optimal solution are given, also in terms of approximating problems.
A note on the depth function of combinatorial optimization problems
Woeginger, G.J.
2001-01-01
In a recent paper [Discrete Appl. Math. 43 (1993) 115–129], Kern formulates two conjectures on the relationship between the computational complexity of computing the depth function of a discrete optimization problem and the computational complexity of solving this optimization problem to optimality.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Clarke, Ann Højbjerg; Freytag, Per Vagn; Zolkiewski, Judith
2017-01-01
gives managers a tool to help to cope with the dynamic aspects of the customer portfolio. Recognition of the importance of communication to the process, the development of trust and the role of legitimacy also provides areas that managers can focus upon in their relationship management processes......Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend the discussion about customer portfolios beyond simple identification of models and how they can be used for balanced resource allocation to a discussion about how portfolios should take into account views from relationship partners and how they should...... that helps improve the understanding of how customer portfolio models can actually be applied from a relational perspective. Findings The key aspects of the conceptual framework relate to how alignment of the relationships in the portfolio is achieved. Critical to this are the interaction spaces...
An optimization model for natural gas supply portfolios of a power generation company
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jirutitijaroen, Panida; Kim, Sujin; Kittithreerapronchai, Oran; Prina, José
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► An optimization model for daily operation of a natural gas-fired generation company is proposed. ► The model considers uncertainties in electricity price and natural gas price. ► The model is formulated to capture the hedging decisions by the company. ► The solution yields quantities of natural gas, generating schedule and purchasing quantities of electricity. ► Higher profit can be achieved by adapting inventory and production to the actual spot prices of natural gas and electricity. - Abstract: This paper considers a deregulated electricity market environment where a natural gas-fired generation company can engage in different types of contracts to manage its natural gas supply as well as trade on the electricity market. If the contracts are properly designed, they can protect the company from fluctuations in electricity price and demand, at some cost to the company’s expected profit. This reduction in profit can be mitigated by trading on the natural gas and electricity spot markets, but this trading activity may also sometimes result in losses. A stochastic programming model is formulated to capture the hedging decisions made by the company, as well as the interactions between the natural gas and electricity markets. The benefits offered by this approach for profit maximization in a variety of business scenarios, such as the case where the company can hold some amount of gas in storage are studied and presented. It is found that the stochastic model enables the company to optimize the electricity generation schedule and the natural gas consumption, including spot price transactions and gas storage management. Several managerial insights into the natural gas market, natural gas storage, and distribution profit are given
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivan Ricardo Gartner
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Faced with so many risk modeling alternatives in portfolio optimization, several questions arise regarding their legitimacy, utility and applicability. In particular, a question arises involving the adherence of the alternative models with regard to the basic presupposition of Markowitz's classical model, with regard to the concept of diversification as a means of controlling the relationship between risk and return within a process of optimization. In this context, the aim of this article is to explore the risk-differentiated configurations that entropy can provide, from the point of view of the repercussions that these have on the degree of diversification and on portfolios performance. The reach of this objective requires that a comparative analysis is made between models that include entropy in their formulation and the classic Markowitz model. In order to contribute to this debate, this article proposes that adaptations are made to the models of relative minimum entropy and of maximum entropy, so that these can be applied to investment portfolio optimizations. The comparative analysis was based on performance indicators and on a ratio of the degree of portfolio diversification. The portfolios were formed by considering a sample of fourteen assets that compose the IBOVESPA, which were projected during the period from January 2007 to December 2009, and took into account the matrices of covariance that were formed as from January 1999. When comparing the Markowitz model with two models that were constructed to represent new risk configurations based on entropy optimization, the present study concluded that the first model was far superior to the others. Not only did the Markowitz model present better accumulated nominal yields, it also presented a far greater predictive efficiency and better effective performance, when considering the trade-off between risk and return. However, with regards to diversification, the Markowitz model concentrated
Toward solving the sign problem with path optimization method
Mori, Yuto; Kashiwa, Kouji; Ohnishi, Akira
2017-12-01
We propose a new approach to circumvent the sign problem in which the integration path is optimized to control the sign problem. We give a trial function specifying the integration path in the complex plane and tune it to optimize the cost function which represents the seriousness of the sign problem. We call it the path optimization method. In this method, we do not need to solve the gradient flow required in the Lefschetz-thimble method and then the construction of the integration-path contour arrives at the optimization problem where several efficient methods can be applied. In a simple model with a serious sign problem, the path optimization method is demonstrated to work well; the residual sign problem is resolved and precise results can be obtained even in the region where the global sign problem is serious.
An optimal design problem in wave propagation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bellido, J.C.; Donoso, Alberto
2007-01-01
of finding the best distributions of the two initial materials in a rod in order to minimize the vibration energy in the structure under periodic loading of driving frequency Omega. We comment on relaxation and optimality conditions, and perform numerical simulations of the optimal configurations. We prove...... also the existence of classical solutions in certain cases....
Identification and optimization problems in plasma physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gilbert, J.C.
1986-06-01
Parameter identification of the current in a tokamak plasma is studied. Plasma equilibrium in a vacuum container with a diaphragm is analyzed. A variable metric method with reduced optimization with nonlinear equality constraints; and a quasi-Newton reduced optimization method with constraints giving priority to restoration are presented [fr
Particle swarm optimization - Genetic algorithm (PSOGA) on linear transportation problem
Rahmalia, Dinita
2017-08-01
Linear Transportation Problem (LTP) is the case of constrained optimization where we want to minimize cost subject to the balance of the number of supply and the number of demand. The exact method such as northwest corner, vogel, russel, minimal cost have been applied at approaching optimal solution. In this paper, we use heurisitic like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for solving linear transportation problem at any size of decision variable. In addition, we combine mutation operator of Genetic Algorithm (GA) at PSO to improve optimal solution. This method is called Particle Swarm Optimization - Genetic Algorithm (PSOGA). The simulations show that PSOGA can improve optimal solution resulted by PSO.
Optimal solutions for routing problems with profits
Archetti, C.; Bianchessi, N.; Speranza, M. G.
2013-01-01
In this paper, we present a branch-and-price algorithm to solve two well-known vehicle routing problems with profits, the Capacitated Team Orienteering Problem and the Capacitated Profitable Tour Problem. A restricted master heuristic is applied at each node of the branch-and-bound tree in order to
ISOGEOMETRIC SHAPE OPTIMIZATION FOR ELECTROMAGNETIC SCATTERING PROBLEMS
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nguyen, D. M.; Evgrafov, Anton; Gravesen, Jens
2012-01-01
We consider the benchmark problem of magnetic energy density enhancement in a small spatial region by varying the shape of two symmetric conducting scatterers. We view this problem as a prototype for a wide variety of geometric design problems in electromagnetic applications. Our approach...
Essays on Rational Portfolio Theory
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Simon Ellersgaard
market prices, we findonly a very modest improvement in portfolio wealth over the corresponding strategy whichonly trades in bonds and stocks. Optimal Hedge Tracking Portfolios in a Limit Order Book. In this paper we developa control theoretic solution to the manner in which a portfolio manager optimally...... shouldtrack a targeted D, given that he wishes to hedge a short position in European call optionsthe underlying of which is traded in a limit order book. Specifically, we are interested in theinterplay between posting limit and market orders respectively: when should the portfoliomanager do what (and at what......’s theory of optimal portfolio selection for wealth maximisingagents. In this paper we present a systematic analysis of the optimal asset allocation in aderivative-free market for the Heston model, the 3/2 model, and a Fong Vasicek type model.Under the assumption that the market price of risk...
Formal Method of Description Supporting Portfolio Assessment
Morimoto, Yasuhiko; Ueno, Maomi; Kikukawa, Isao; Yokoyama, Setsuo; Miyadera, Youzou
2006-01-01
Teachers need to assess learner portfolios in the field of education. However, they need support in the process of designing and practicing what kind of portfolios are to be assessed. To solve the problem, a formal method of describing the relations between the lesson forms and portfolios that need to be collected and the relations between…
Advances in bio-inspired computing for combinatorial optimization problems
Pintea, Camelia-Mihaela
2013-01-01
Advances in Bio-inspired Combinatorial Optimization Problems' illustrates several recent bio-inspired efficient algorithms for solving NP-hard problems.Theoretical bio-inspired concepts and models, in particular for agents, ants and virtual robots are described. Large-scale optimization problems, for example: the Generalized Traveling Salesman Problem and the Railway Traveling Salesman Problem, are solved and their results are discussed.Some of the main concepts and models described in this book are: inner rule to guide ant search - a recent model in ant optimization, heterogeneous sensitive a
A Linearized Relaxing Algorithm for the Specific Nonlinear Optimization Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mio Horai
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a new method for the specific nonlinear and nonconvex global optimization problem by using a linear relaxation technique. To simplify the specific nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problem, we transform the problem to the lower linear relaxation form, and we solve the linear relaxation optimization problem by the Branch and Bound Algorithm. Under some reasonable assumptions, the global convergence of the algorithm is certified for the problem. Numerical results show that this method is more efficient than the previous methods.
Duncan, Sharon L.
2011-01-01
Enterprise Business Information Services Division (EBIS) supports the Laboratory and its functions through the implementation and support of business information systems on behalf of its business community. EBIS Five Strategic Focus Areas: (1) Improve project estimating, planning and delivery capability (2) Improve maintainability and sustainability of EBIS Application Portfolio (3) Leap forward in IT Leadership (4) Comprehensive Talent Management (5) Continuous IT Security Program. Portfolio Management is a strategy in which software applications are managed as assets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehmet Asutay
2015-04-01
Full Text Available This study examines the effect of Islamic screening criteria on Shari’ah-compliant portfolio selection and performance compared to Socially Responsible Investment (SRI portfolio. Each portfolio constructed from 15 stocks based on FTSE 100 using data from year 1997. Mean-variance portfolio optimization is employed with some financial ratios added as constraints for the Shari’ah portfolio. Annual expected return of each portfolio from 2008 to 2013 is used to calculate Sharpe’s ratio, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha as the performance measurement tools. Macroeconomic variables are assessed using ordinary least square to examine whether they influence the portfolios’ expected returns or not. The result finds that Shari’ah portfolio has a better performance than SRI from year 2008 to 2010 shown by higher value of the measurement tools. However, from 2011 to 2013, SRI portfolio has better performance than Shari’ah portfolio.
A Linear Programming Reformulation of the Standard Quadratic Optimization Problem
de Klerk, E.; Pasechnik, D.V.
2005-01-01
The problem of minimizing a quadratic form over the standard simplex is known as the standard quadratic optimization problem (SQO).It is NPhard, and contains the maximum stable set problem in graphs as a special case.In this note we show that the SQO problem may be reformulated as an (exponentially
Parametric Portfolio Selection: Evaluating and Comparing to Markowitz Portfolios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marcelo C. Medeiros
2014-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper we exploit the parametric portfolio optimization in the Brazilian market. Our data consists of monthly returns of 306 Brazilian stocks in the period between 2001 and 2013. We tested the model both in and out of sample and compared the results with the value and equal weighted portfolios and with a Markowitz based portfolio. We performed statistical inference in the parametric optimization using bootstrap techniques in order to build the parameters empirical distributions. Our results showed that the parametric optimization is a very efficient technique out of sample. It consistently showed superior results when compared with the VW, EW and Markowitz portfolios even when transaction costs were included. Finally, we consider the parametric approach to be very flexible to the inclusion of constraints in weights, transaction costs and listing and delisting of stocks.
Frequency response as a surrogate eigenvalue problem in topology optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreassen, Erik; Ferrari, Federico; Sigmund, Ole
2018-01-01
This article discusses the use of frequency response surrogates for eigenvalue optimization problems in topology optimization that may be used to avoid solving the eigenvalue problem. The motivation is to avoid complications that arise from multiple eigenvalues and the computational complexity as...
Ant Colony Optimization and the Minimum Cut Problem
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kötzing, Timo; Lehre, Per Kristian; Neumann, Frank
2010-01-01
Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a powerful metaheuristic for solving combinatorial optimization problems. With this paper we contribute to the theoretical understanding of this kind of algorithm by investigating the classical minimum cut problem. An ACO algorithm similar to the one that was prov...
Sufficient conditions for Lagrange, Mayer, and Bolza optimization problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boltyanski V.
2001-01-01
Full Text Available The Maximum Principle [2,13] is a well known necessary condition for optimality. This condition, generally, is not sufficient. In [3], the author proved that if there exists regular synthesis of trajectories, the Maximum Principle also is a sufficient condition for time-optimality. In this article, we generalize this result for Lagrange, Mayer, and Bolza optimization problems.
Optimal Control Problems for Nonlinear Variational Evolution Inequalities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eun-Young Ju
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We deal with optimal control problems governed by semilinear parabolic type equations and in particular described by variational inequalities. We will also characterize the optimal controls by giving necessary conditions for optimality by proving the Gâteaux differentiability of solution mapping on control variables.
Mathematical programming methods for large-scale topology optimization problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas Labanda, Susana
for mechanical problems, but has rapidly extended to many other disciplines, such as fluid dynamics and biomechanical problems. However, the novelty and improvements of optimization methods has been very limited. It is, indeed, necessary to develop of new optimization methods to improve the final designs......, and at the same time, reduce the number of function evaluations. Nonlinear optimization methods, such as sequential quadratic programming and interior point solvers, have almost not been embraced by the topology optimization community. Thus, this work is focused on the introduction of this kind of second...... for the classical minimum compliance problem. Two of the state-of-the-art optimization algorithms are investigated and implemented for this structural topology optimization problem. A Sequential Quadratic Programming (TopSQP) and an interior point method (TopIP) are developed exploiting the specific mathematical...
Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.
Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y
2004-06-01
The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model
Mean-variance portfolio selection for defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary.
Zhang, Chubing
2014-01-01
This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.
Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chubing Zhang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.
Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary
Chubing Zhang
2014-01-01
This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.
Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary
Zhang, Chubing
2014-01-01
This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier. PMID:24782667
3D Topology optimization of Stokes flow problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gersborg-Hansen, Allan; Dammann, Bernd
of energy efficient devices for 2D Stokes flow. Creeping flow problems are described by the Stokes equations which model very viscous fluids at macro scales or ordinary fluids at very small scales. The latter gives the motivation for topology optimization problems based on the Stokes equations being a model......The present talk is concerned with the application of topology optimization to creeping flow problems in 3D. This research is driven by the fact that topology optimization has proven very successful as a tool in academic and industrial design problems. Success stories are reported from such diverse...
Applications of functional analysis to optimal control problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mizukami, K.
1976-01-01
Some basic concepts in functional analysis, a general norm, the Hoelder inequality, functionals and the Hahn-Banach theorem are described; a mathematical formulation of two optimal control problems is introduced by the method of functional analysis. The problem of time-optimal control systems with both norm constraints on control inputs and on state variables at discrete intermediate times is formulated as an L-problem in the theory of moments. The simplex method is used for solving a non-linear minimizing problem inherent in the functional analysis solution to this problem. Numerical results are presented for a train operation. The second problem is that of optimal control of discrete linear systems with quadratic cost functionals. The problem is concerned with the case of unconstrained control and fixed endpoints. This problem is formulated in terms of norms of functionals on suitable Banach spaces. (author)
Optimization Problems in Supply Chain Management
D. Romero Morales (Dolores)
2000-01-01
textabstractMaria Dolores Romero Morales was born on Augustus 5th, 1971, in Sevilla (Spain). She studied Mathematics at University of Sevilla from 1989 to 1994 and specialized in Statistics and Operations Research. She wrote her Master's thesis on Global Optimization in Location Theory under the
Improved Ant Colony Optimization for Seafood Product Delivery Routing Problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baozhen Yao
2014-02-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with a real-life vehicle delivery routing problem, which is a seafood product delivery routing problem. Considering the features of the seafood product delivery routing problem, this paper formulated this problem as a multi-depot open vehicle routing problem. Since the multi-depot open vehicle routing problem is a very complex problem, a method is used to reduce the complexity of the problem by changing the multi-depot open vehicle routing problem into an open vehicle routing problem with a dummy central depot in this paper. Then, ant colony optimization is used to solve the problem. To improve the performance of the algorithm, crossover operation and some adaptive strategies are used. Finally, the computational results for the benchmark problems of the multi-depot vehicle routing problem indicate that the proposed ant colony optimization is an effective method to solve the multi-depot vehicle routing problem. Furthermore, the computation results of the seafood product delivery problem from Dalian, China also suggest that the proposed ant colony optimization is feasible to solve the seafood product delivery routing problem.
Topology optimization of fluid-structure-interaction problems in poroelasticity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreasen, Casper Schousboe; Sigmund, Ole
2013-01-01
This paper presents a method for applying topology optimization to fluid-structure interaction problems in saturated poroelastic media. The method relies on a multiple-scale method applied to periodic media. The resulting model couples the Stokes flow in the pores of the structure with the deform...... by topology optimization in order to optimize the performance of a shock absorber and test the pressure loading capabilities and optimization of an internally pressurized lid. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V....
Some Optimization Problems for p-Laplacian Type Equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Del Pezzo, L. M.; Fernandez Bonder, J.
2009-01-01
In this paper we study some optimization problems for nonlinear elastic membranes. More precisely, we consider the problem of optimizing the cost functional over some admissible class of loads f where u is the (unique) solution to the problem -Δ p u+ vertical bar u vertical bar p-2 u=0 in Ω with vertical bar ∇u vertical bar p-2 u ν =f on ∂Ω
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brackney, Larry J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2016-02-17
North East utility National Grid (NGrid) is developing a portfolio-scale application of OpenStudio designed to optimize incentive and marketing expenditures for their energy efficiency (EE) programs. NGrid wishes to leverage a combination of geographic information systems (GIS), public records, customer data, and content from the Building Component Library (BCL) to form a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) input file that is consumed by an OpenStudio-based expert system for automated model generation. A baseline model for each customer building will be automatically tuned using electricity and gas consumption data, and a set of energy conservation measures (ECMs) associated with each NGrid incentive program will be applied to the model. The simulated energy performance and return on investment (ROI) will be compared with customer hurdle rates and available incentives to A) optimize the incentive required to overcome the customer hurdle rate and B) determine if marketing activity associated with the specific ECM is warranted for that particular customer. Repeated across their portfolio, this process will enable NGrid to substantially optimize their marketing and incentive expenditures, targeting those customers that will likely adopt and benefit from specific EE programs.
A Global Optimization Algorithm for Sum of Linear Ratios Problem
Yuelin Gao; Siqiao Jin
2013-01-01
We equivalently transform the sum of linear ratios programming problem into bilinear programming problem, then by using the linear characteristics of convex envelope and concave envelope of double variables product function, linear relaxation programming of the bilinear programming problem is given, which can determine the lower bound of the optimal value of original problem. Therefore, a branch and bound algorithm for solving sum of linear ratios programming problem is put forward, and the c...
Constraint interface preconditioning for topology optimization problems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kočvara, Michal; Loghin, D.; Turner, J.
2016-01-01
Roč. 38, č. 1 (2016), A128-A145 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100750802 Grant - others:European Commission - EC(XE) 313781 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : topology optimization * domain decomposition * Newton-Krylov Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.195, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/MTR/kocvara-0460325.pdf
Singer, Y
1997-08-01
A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are competitive with the best constant rebalanced portfolio determined in hindsight (Cover, 1991; Helmbold et al., 1996; Cover and Ordentlich, 1996). By their nature, these algorithms employ the assumption that high returns can be achieved using a fixed asset allocation strategy. However, stock markets are far from being stationary and in many cases the wealth achieved by a constant rebalanced portfolio is much smaller than the wealth achieved by an ad hoc investment strategy that adapts to changes in the market. In this paper we present an efficient portfolio selection algorithm that is able to track a changing market. We also describe a simple extension of the algorithm for the case of a general transaction cost, including the transactions cost models recently investigated in (Blum and Kalai, 1997). We provide a simple analysis of the competitiveness of the algorithm and check its performance on real stock data from the New York Stock Exchange accumulated during a 22-year period. On this data, our algorithm outperforms all the algorithms referenced above, with and without transaction costs.
The Role of Agribusiness Assets in Investment Portfolios
Johnson, Michael; Malcolm, Bill; O'Connor, Ian
2006-01-01
Investment in agribusiness assets has grown significantly in recent years. The question of interest is whether including agribusiness assets in investment portfolios provide benefits. The effects of diversification by including agribusiness assets in two investment portfolios, a mixed asset portfolio and a diversified share portfolio was investigated using Markowitzâ€™s (1952) Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of mean-variance optimization. To measure the performance of agribusiness assets, an in...
Portfolio Management with Stochastic Interest Rates and Inflation Ambiguity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Munk, Claus; Rubtsov, Alexey Vladimirovich
We solve a stock-bond-cash portfolio choice problem for a risk- and ambiguity-averse investor in a setting where the inflation rate and interest rates are stochastic. The expected inflation rate is unobservable, but the investor may learn about it from realized inflation and observed stock and bond......-Jacobi-Bellman equation in closed form and derive and illustrate a number of interesting properties of the solution. For example, ambiguity aversion affects the optimal portfolio through the correlation of price level with the stock index, a bond, and the expected inflation rate. Furthermore, unlike other settings...
Topology optimization problems with design-dependent sets of constraints
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schou, Marie-Louise Højlund
Topology optimization is a design tool which is used in numerous fields. It can be used whenever the design is driven by weight and strength considerations. The basic concept of topology optimization is the interpretation of partial differential equation coefficients as effective material...... properties and designing through changing these coefficients. For example, consider a continuous structure. Then the basic concept is to represent this structure by small pieces of material that are coinciding with the elements of a finite element model of the structure. This thesis treats stress constrained...... structural topology optimization problems. For such problems a stress constraint for an element should only be present in the optimization problem when the structural design variable corresponding to this element has a value greater than zero. We model the stress constrained topology optimization problem...
Optimal Wafer Cutting in Shuttle Layout Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nisted, Lasse; Pisinger, David; Altman, Avri
2011-01-01
. The shuttle layout problem is frequently solved in two phases: first, a floorplan of the shuttle is generated. Then, a cutting plan is found which minimizes the overall number of wafers needed to satisfy the demand of each die type. Since some die types require special production technologies, only compatible...
Constraint Optimization for Highly Constrained Logistic Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mochnacs, Maria Kinga; Tanaka, Meang Akira; Nyborg, Anders
This report investigates whether propagators combined with branch and bound algorithm are suitable for solving the storage area stowage problem within reasonable time. The approach has not been attempted before and experiments show that the implementation was not capable of solving the storage ar...
Solving Multiobjective Optimization Problems Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenping Zou
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Multiobjective optimization has been a difficult problem and focus for research in fields of science and engineering. This paper presents a novel algorithm based on artificial bee colony (ABC to deal with multi-objective optimization problems. ABC is one of the most recently introduced algorithms based on the intelligent foraging behavior of a honey bee swarm. It uses less control parameters, and it can be efficiently used for solving multimodal and multidimensional optimization problems. Our algorithm uses the concept of Pareto dominance to determine the flight direction of a bee, and it maintains nondominated solution vectors which have been found in an external archive. The proposed algorithm is validated using the standard test problems, and simulation results show that the proposed approach is highly competitive and can be considered a viable alternative to solve multi-objective optimization problems.
Optimality conditions for the numerical solution of optimization problems with PDE constraints :
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aguilo Valentin, Miguel Alejandro; Ridzal, Denis
2014-03-01
A theoretical framework for the numerical solution of partial di erential equation (PDE) constrained optimization problems is presented in this report. This theoretical framework embodies the fundamental infrastructure required to e ciently implement and solve this class of problems. Detail derivations of the optimality conditions required to accurately solve several parameter identi cation and optimal control problems are also provided in this report. This will allow the reader to further understand how the theoretical abstraction presented in this report translates to the application.
Present-day Problems and Methods of Optimization in Mechatronics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tarnowski Wojciech
2017-06-01
Full Text Available It is justified that design is an inverse problem, and the optimization is a paradigm. Classes of design problems are proposed and typical obstacles are recognized. Peculiarities of the mechatronic designing are specified as a proof of a particle importance of optimization in the mechatronic design. Two main obstacles of optimization are discussed: a complexity of mathematical models and an uncertainty of the value system, in concrete case. Then a set of non-standard approaches and methods are presented and discussed, illustrated by examples: a fuzzy description, a constraint-based iterative optimization, AHP ranking method and a few MADM functions in Matlab.
Comments on `A discrete optimal control problem for descriptor systems'
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ravn, Hans
1990-01-01
In the above-mentioned work (see ibid., vol.34, p.177-81 (1989)), necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are derived for a discrete-time optimal problem, as well as other specific cases of implicit and explicit dynamic systems. The commenter corrects a mistake and demonstrates that there ......In the above-mentioned work (see ibid., vol.34, p.177-81 (1989)), necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are derived for a discrete-time optimal problem, as well as other specific cases of implicit and explicit dynamic systems. The commenter corrects a mistake and demonstrates...
Topology optimization for acoustic-structure interaction problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yoon, Gil Ho; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard; Sigmund, Ole
2006-01-01
We propose a gradient based topology optimization algorithm for acoustic-structure (vibro-acoustic) interaction problems without an explicit interfacing boundary representation. In acoustic-structure interaction problems, the pressure field and the displacement field are governed by the Helmholtz...... to subdomain interfaces evolving during the optimization process. In this paper, we propose to use a mixed finite element formulation with displacements and pressure as primary variables (u/p formulation) which eliminates the need for explicit boundary representation. In order to describe the Helmholtz......-dimensional acoustic-structure interaction problems are optimized to show the validity of the proposed method....
Portfolio selection theory and wildlife management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
JW Hearne
2008-12-01
Full Text Available With a strong commercial incentive driving the increase in game ranching in Southern Africa the need has come for more advanced management tools. In this paper the potential of Portfolio Selection Theory to determine the optimal mix of species on game ranches is explored. Land, or the food it produces, is a resource available to invest. We consider species as investment choices. Each species has its own return and risk profile. The question arises as to what proportion of the resource available should be invested in each species. We show that if the objective is to minimise risk for a given return, then the problem is analogous to the Portfolio Selection Problem. The method is then implemented for a typical game ranch. We show that besides risk and return objectives, it is necessary to include an additional objective so as to ensure sufficient species to maintain the character of a game ranch. Some other points of difference from the classical Portfolio Selection problem are also highlighted and discussed.
Essays on intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice
van Bilsen, Servaas
2015-01-01
This dissertation consists of two parts, preceded by an introductory chapter. Part I (Chapters 2, 3 and 4) considers optimal consumption and portfolio choice using preference models. Chapter 2 analyzes optimal consumption and portfolio choice under loss aversion and endogenous updating of the
Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen
2004-05-01
Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.
Portfolio evaluation of health programs: a reply to Sendi et al.
Bridges, John F P; Terris, Darcey D
2004-05-01
Sendi et al. (Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207) extend previous research on cost-effectiveness analysis to the evaluation of a portfolio of interventions with risky outcomes using a "second best" approach that can identify improvements in efficiency in the allocation of resources. This method, however, cannot be used to directly identify the optimal solution to the resource allocation problem. Theoretically, a stricter adherence to the foundations of portfolio theory would permit direct optimization in portfolio selection, however, when we include uncertainty in our analysis in addition to the traditional concept of risk (which is often mislabelled uncertainty) complexities are introduced that create significant hurdles in the development of practical applications of portfolio theory for health care policy decision making.
Comparison of optimal design methods in inverse problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Banks, H T; Holm, K; Kappel, F
2011-01-01
Typical optimal design methods for inverse or parameter estimation problems are designed to choose optimal sampling distributions through minimization of a specific cost function related to the resulting error in parameter estimates. It is hoped that the inverse problem will produce parameter estimates with increased accuracy using data collected according to the optimal sampling distribution. Here we formulate the classical optimal design problem in the context of general optimization problems over distributions of sampling times. We present a new Prohorov metric-based theoretical framework that permits one to treat succinctly and rigorously any optimal design criteria based on the Fisher information matrix. A fundamental approximation theory is also included in this framework. A new optimal design, SE-optimal design (standard error optimal design), is then introduced in the context of this framework. We compare this new design criterion with the more traditional D-optimal and E-optimal designs. The optimal sampling distributions from each design are used to compute and compare standard errors; the standard errors for parameters are computed using asymptotic theory or bootstrapping and the optimal mesh. We use three examples to illustrate ideas: the Verhulst–Pearl logistic population model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009 Mathematical and Experimental Modeling of Physical and Biological Processes (Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC)), the standard harmonic oscillator model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009) and a popular glucose regulation model (Bergman R N, Ider Y Z, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1979 Am. J. Physiol. 236 E667–77; De Gaetano A and Arino O 2000 J. Math. Biol. 40 136–68; Toffolo G, Bergman R N, Finegood D T, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1980 Diabetes 29 979–90)
Comparison of optimal design methods in inverse problems
Banks, H. T.; Holm, K.; Kappel, F.
2011-07-01
Typical optimal design methods for inverse or parameter estimation problems are designed to choose optimal sampling distributions through minimization of a specific cost function related to the resulting error in parameter estimates. It is hoped that the inverse problem will produce parameter estimates with increased accuracy using data collected according to the optimal sampling distribution. Here we formulate the classical optimal design problem in the context of general optimization problems over distributions of sampling times. We present a new Prohorov metric-based theoretical framework that permits one to treat succinctly and rigorously any optimal design criteria based on the Fisher information matrix. A fundamental approximation theory is also included in this framework. A new optimal design, SE-optimal design (standard error optimal design), is then introduced in the context of this framework. We compare this new design criterion with the more traditional D-optimal and E-optimal designs. The optimal sampling distributions from each design are used to compute and compare standard errors; the standard errors for parameters are computed using asymptotic theory or bootstrapping and the optimal mesh. We use three examples to illustrate ideas: the Verhulst-Pearl logistic population model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009 Mathematical and Experimental Modeling of Physical and Biological Processes (Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC)), the standard harmonic oscillator model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009) and a popular glucose regulation model (Bergman R N, Ider Y Z, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1979 Am. J. Physiol. 236 E667-77 De Gaetano A and Arino O 2000 J. Math. Biol. 40 136-68 Toffolo G, Bergman R N, Finegood D T, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1980 Diabetes 29 979-90).
New Exact Penalty Functions for Nonlinear Constrained Optimization Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bingzhuang Liu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available For two kinds of nonlinear constrained optimization problems, we propose two simple penalty functions, respectively, by augmenting the dimension of the primal problem with a variable that controls the weight of the penalty terms. Both of the penalty functions enjoy improved smoothness. Under mild conditions, it can be proved that our penalty functions are both exact in the sense that local minimizers of the associated penalty problem are precisely the local minimizers of the original constrained problem.
An optimal control approach to manpower planning problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. W. J. Lee
2001-01-01
Full Text Available A manpower planning problem is studied in this paper. The model includes scheduling different types of workers over different tasks, employing and terminating different types of workers, and assigning different types of workers to various trainning programmes. The aim is to find an optimal way to do all these while keeping the time-varying demand for minimum number of workers working on each different tasks satisfied. The problem is posed as an optimal discrete-valued control problem in discrete time. A novel numerical scheme is proposed to solve the problem, and an illustrative example is provided.
Topology Optimization of Large Scale Stokes Flow Problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aage, Niels; Poulsen, Thomas Harpsøe; Gersborg-Hansen, Allan
2008-01-01
This note considers topology optimization of large scale 2D and 3D Stokes flow problems using parallel computations. We solve problems with up to 1.125.000 elements in 2D and 128.000 elements in 3D on a shared memory computer consisting of Sun UltraSparc IV CPUs.......This note considers topology optimization of large scale 2D and 3D Stokes flow problems using parallel computations. We solve problems with up to 1.125.000 elements in 2D and 128.000 elements in 3D on a shared memory computer consisting of Sun UltraSparc IV CPUs....
Optimal stability polynomials for numerical integration of initial value problems
Ketcheson, David I.; Ahmadia, Aron
2013-01-01
We consider the problem of finding optimally stable polynomial approximations to the exponential for application to one-step integration of initial value ordinary and partial differential equations. The objective is to find the largest stable step
Infinite-horizon optimal control problems in economics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aseev, Sergei M; Besov, Konstantin O; Kryazhimskii, Arkadii V
2012-04-30
This paper extends optimal control theory to a class of infinite-horizon problems that arise in studying models of optimal dynamic allocation of economic resources. In a typical problem of this sort the initial state is fixed, no constraints are imposed on the behaviour of the admissible trajectories at large times, and the objective functional is given by a discounted improper integral. We develop the method of finite-horizon approximations in a broad context and use it to derive complete versions of the Pontryagin maximum principle for such problems. We provide sufficient conditions for the normality of infinite-horizon optimal control problems and for the validity of the 'standard' limit transversality conditions with time going to infinity. As a meaningful example, we consider a new two-sector model of optimal economic growth subject to a random jump in prices. Bibliography: 53 titles.
An inverse optimal control problem in the electrical discharge ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Marin Gostimirovic
2018-05-10
May 10, 2018 ... Keywords. EDM process; discharge energy; heat source parameters; inverse problem; optimization. 1. Introduction .... ation, thermal modeling of the EDM process would become ..... simulation of die-sinking EDM. CIRP Ann.
Infinite-horizon optimal control problems in economics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aseev, Sergei M; Besov, Konstantin O; Kryazhimskii, Arkadii V
2012-01-01
This paper extends optimal control theory to a class of infinite-horizon problems that arise in studying models of optimal dynamic allocation of economic resources. In a typical problem of this sort the initial state is fixed, no constraints are imposed on the behaviour of the admissible trajectories at large times, and the objective functional is given by a discounted improper integral. We develop the method of finite-horizon approximations in a broad context and use it to derive complete versions of the Pontryagin maximum principle for such problems. We provide sufficient conditions for the normality of infinite-horizon optimal control problems and for the validity of the 'standard' limit transversality conditions with time going to infinity. As a meaningful example, we consider a new two-sector model of optimal economic growth subject to a random jump in prices. Bibliography: 53 titles.
An Optimal Linear Coding for Index Coding Problem
Pezeshkpour, Pouya
2015-01-01
An optimal linear coding solution for index coding problem is established. Instead of network coding approach by focus on graph theoric and algebraic methods a linear coding program for solving both unicast and groupcast index coding problem is presented. The coding is proved to be the optimal solution from the linear perspective and can be easily utilize for any number of messages. The importance of this work is lying mostly on the usage of the presented coding in the groupcast index coding ...
Complicated problem solution techniques in optimal parameter searching
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gergel', V.P.; Grishagin, V.A.; Rogatneva, E.A.; Strongin, R.G.; Vysotskaya, I.N.; Kukhtin, V.V.
1992-01-01
An algorithm is presented of a global search for numerical solution of multidimentional multiextremal multicriteria optimization problems with complicated constraints. A boundedness of object characteristic changes is assumed at restricted changes of its parameters (Lipschitz condition). The algorithm was realized as a computer code. The algorithm was realized as a computer code. The programme was used to solve in practice the different applied optimization problems. 10 refs.; 3 figs
Nonlinear Multidimensional Assignment Problems Efficient Conic Optimization Methods and Applications
2015-06-24
WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Arizona State University School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences 901 S...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The major goals of this project were completed: the exact solution of previously unsolved challenging combinatorial optimization... combinatorial optimization problem, the Directional Sensor Problem, was solved in two ways. First, heuristically in an engineering fashion and second, exactly
Topology optimization of vibration and wave propagation problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard
2007-01-01
The method of topology optimization is a versatile method to determine optimal material layouts in mechanical structures. The method relies on, in principle, unlimited design freedom that can be used to design materials, structures and devices with significantly improved performance and sometimes...... novel functionality. This paper addresses basic issues in simulation and topology design of vibration and wave propagation problems. Steady-state and transient wave propagation problems are addressed and application examples for both cases are presented....
On some fundamental properties of structural topology optimization problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stolpe, Mathias
2010-01-01
We study some fundamental mathematical properties of discretized structural topology optimization problems. Either compliance is minimized with an upper bound on the volume of the structure, or volume is minimized with an upper bound on the compliance. The design variables are either continuous o....... The presented examples can be used as teaching material in graduate and undergraduate courses on structural topology optimization....
STATEMENT OF THE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM OF CARBON PRODUCTS PRODUCTION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. A. Zhuchenko
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The paper formulated optimization problem formulation production of carbon products. The analysis of technical and economic parameters that can be used to optimize the production of carbonaceous products had been done by the author. To evaluate the efficiency of the energy-intensive production uses several technical and economic indicators. In particular, the specific cost, productivity, income and profitability of production. Based on a detailed analysis had been formulated optimality criterion that takes into account the technological components of profitability. The components in detail the criteria and the proposed method of calculating non-trivial, one of them - the production cost of each product. When solving the optimization problem of technological modes of production into account constraints on the variables are optimized. Thus, restrictions may be expressed on the number of each product produced. Have been formulated the method of calculating the cost per unit of product. Attention is paid to the quality indices of finished products as an additional constraint in the optimization problem. As a result have been formulated the general problem of optimizing the production of carbon products, which includes the optimality criterion and restrictions.
SolveDB: Integrating Optimization Problem Solvers Into SQL Databases
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach
2016-01-01
for optimization problems, (2) an extensible infrastructure for integrating different solvers, and (3) query optimization techniques to achieve the best execution performance and/or result quality. Extensive experiments with the PostgreSQL-based implementation show that SolveDB is a versatile tool offering much...
Effective Teaching of Economics: A Constrained Optimization Problem?
Hultberg, Patrik T.; Calonge, David Santandreu
2017-01-01
One of the fundamental tenets of economics is that decisions are often the result of optimization problems subject to resource constraints. Consumers optimize utility, subject to constraints imposed by prices and income. As economics faculty, instructors attempt to maximize student learning while being constrained by their own and students'…
Climate Intervention as an Optimization Problem
Caldeira, Ken; Ban-Weiss, George A.
2010-05-01
Typically, climate models simulations of intentional intervention in the climate system have taken the approach of imposing a change (eg, in solar flux, aerosol concentrations, aerosol emissions) and then predicting how that imposed change might affect Earth's climate or chemistry. Computations proceed from cause to effect. However, humans often proceed from "What do I want?" to "How do I get it?" One approach to thinking about intentional intervention in the climate system ("geoengineering") is to ask "What kind of climate do we want?" and then ask "What pattern of radiative forcing would come closest to achieving that desired climate state?" This involves defining climate goals and a cost function that measures how closely those goals are attained. (An important next step is to ask "How would we go about producing these desired patterns of radiative forcing?" However, this question is beyond the scope of our present study.) We performed a variety of climate simulations in NCAR's CAM3.1 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean model and thermodynamic sea ice model. We then evaluated, for a specific set of climate forcing basis functions (ie, aerosol concentration distributions), the extent to which the climate response to a linear combination of those basis functions was similar to a linear combination of the climate response to each basis function taken individually. We then developed several cost functions (eg, relative to the 1xCO2 climate, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean land temperature, minimize rms difference in zonal and annual mean runoff, minimize rms difference in a combination of these temperature and runoff indices) and then predicted optimal combinations of our basis functions that would minimize these cost functions. Lastly, we produced forward simulations of the predicted optimal radiative forcing patterns and compared these with our expected results. Obviously, our climate model is much simpler than reality and