WorldWideScience

Sample records for population-based threshold model

  1. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    OpenAIRE

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  2. Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

    2018-02-16

    This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

  3. Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eggers, Andrew C.; Freier, Ronny; Grembi, Veronica

    In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below arbitrary population thresholds. Several papers have used a regression discontinuity design (RDD...

  4. Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

    2012-01-01

    It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

  5. Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mika Oki

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0, and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP] is the critical determinant of the R(0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1 temperature only; (2 temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3 temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. CONCLUSIONS: The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

  6. Reduction of structured population models to threshold-type delay equations and functional differential equations: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, H.L. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe (United States))

    1993-01-01

    It is shown by way of a simple example that certain structured population models lead naturally to differential delay equations of the threshold type and that these equations can be transformed in a natural way to functional differential equations. The model examined can be viewed as a model of competition between adults and juveniles of a single population. The results indicate the possibility that this competition leads to instability. 28 refs., 2 figs.

  7. How to detect and visualize extinction thresholds for structured PVA models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hildenbrandt, H.; Grimm, V.

    2006-01-01

    An extinction threshold is a population size below which extinction risk increases to beyond critical values. However, detecting extinction thresholds for structured population models is not straightforward because many different population structures may correspond to the same population size.

  8. Some Observations about the Nearest-Neighbor Model of the Error Threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerrish, Philip J.

    2009-01-01

    I explore some aspects of the 'error threshold' - a critical mutation rate above which a population is nonviable. The phase transition that occurs as mutation rate crosses this threshold has been shown to be mathematically equivalent to the loss of ferromagnetism that occurs as temperature exceeds the Curie point. I will describe some refinements and new results based on the simplest of these mutation models, will discuss the commonly unperceived robustness of this simple model, and I will show some preliminary results comparing qualitative predictions with simulations of finite populations adapting at high mutation rates. I will talk about how these qualitative predictions are relevant to biomedical science and will discuss how my colleagues and I are looking for phase-transition signatures in real populations of Escherichia coli that go extinct as a result of excessive mutation.

  9. From individual to population level effects of toxicants in the tubicifid Branchiura sowerbyi using threshold effect models in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Billoir, Elise; Péry, Alexandre R R; Garric, Jeanne; Charles, Sandrine

    2010-05-01

    Effects of zinc were studied in the freshwater worm Branchiura sowerbyi using partial and full life-cycle tests. Only newborn and juveniles were sensitive to zinc, displaying effects on survival, growth, and age at first brood at environmentally relevant concentrations. Threshold effect models were proposed to assess toxic effects on individuals. They were fitted to life-cycle test data using Bayesian inference and adequately described life-history trait data in exposed organisms. The daily asymptotic growth rate of theoretical populations was then simulated with a matrix population model, based upon individual-level outputs. Population-level outputs were in accordance with existing literature for controls. Working in a Bayesian framework allowed incorporating parameter uncertainty in the simulation of the population-level response to zinc exposure, thus increasing the relevance of test results in the context of ecological risk assessment.

  10. Eigen's Error Threshold and Mutational Meltdown in a Quasispecies Model

    OpenAIRE

    Bagnoli, F.; Bezzi, M.

    1998-01-01

    We introduce a toy model for interacting populations connected by mutations and limited by a shared resource. We study the presence of Eigen's error threshold and mutational meltdown. The phase diagram of the system shows that the extinction of the whole population due to mutational meltdown can occur well before an eventual error threshold transition.

  11. Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

    2011-01-01

    Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans' well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables…

  12. A Rational Threshold Signature Model and Protocol Based on Different Permissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a novel model and protocol used in some specific scenarios, in which the participants of multiple groups with different permissions can finish the signature together. We apply the secret sharing scheme based on difference equation to the private key distribution phase and secret reconstruction phrase of our threshold signature scheme. In addition, our scheme can achieve the signature success because of the punishment strategy of the repeated rational secret sharing. Besides, the bit commitment and verification method used to detect players’ cheating behavior acts as a contributing factor to prevent the internal fraud. Using bit commitments, verifiable parameters, and time sequences, this paper constructs a dynamic game model, which has the features of threshold signature management with different permissions, cheat proof, and forward security.

  13. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  14. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jared S Laufenberg

    Full Text Available Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text] was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  15. Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

  16. Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Stephen; Leirs, Herwig; Viljugrein, H.

    2007-01-01

    Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model...... examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate...

  17. Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2017-10-01

    Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

  18. [FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

    2015-01-06

    To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low riskX-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. A probabilistic Poisson-based model accounts for an extensive set of absolute auditory threshold measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, Peter; Matysiak, Artur; Neubauer, Heinrich

    2017-09-01

    Thresholds for detecting sounds in quiet decrease with increasing sound duration in every species studied. The neural mechanisms underlying this trade-off, often referred to as temporal integration, are not fully understood. Here, we probe the human auditory system with a large set of tone stimuli differing in duration, shape of the temporal amplitude envelope, duration of silent gaps between bursts, and frequency. Duration was varied by varying the plateau duration of plateau-burst (PB) stimuli, the duration of the onsets and offsets of onset-offset (OO) stimuli, and the number of identical bursts of multiple-burst (MB) stimuli. Absolute thresholds for a large number of ears (>230) were measured using a 3-interval-3-alternative forced choice (3I-3AFC) procedure. Thresholds decreased with increasing sound duration in a manner that depended on the temporal envelope. Most commonly, thresholds for MB stimuli were highest followed by thresholds for OO and PB stimuli of corresponding durations. Differences in the thresholds for MB and OO stimuli and in the thresholds for MB and PB stimuli, however, varied widely across ears, were negative in some ears, and were tightly correlated. We show that the variation and correlation of MB-OO and MB-PB threshold differences are linked to threshold microstructure, which affects the relative detectability of the sidebands of the MB stimuli and affects estimates of the bandwidth of auditory filters. We also found that thresholds for MB stimuli increased with increasing duration of the silent gaps between bursts. We propose a new model and show that it accurately accounts for our results and does so considerably better than a leaky-integrator-of-intensity model and a probabilistic model proposed by others. Our model is based on the assumption that sensory events are generated by a Poisson point process with a low rate in the absence of stimulation and higher, time-varying rates in the presence of stimulation. A subject in a 3I-3AFC

  20. Outcome-driven thresholds for ambulatory pulse pressure in 9938 participants recruited from 11 populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, Yu-Mei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Li, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Evidence-based thresholds for risk stratification based on pulse pressure (PP) are currently unavailable. To derive outcome-driven thresholds for the 24-hour ambulatory PP, we analyzed 9938 participants randomly recruited from 11 populations (47.3% women). After age stratification (... interval of the HRs associated with stepwise increasing PP levels crossed unity at 64 mm Hg. While accounting for all covariables, the top tenth of PP contributed less than 0.3% (generalized R(2) statistic) to the overall risk among the elderly. Thus, in randomly recruited people, ambulatory PP does...

  1. An Efficient Code-Based Threshold Ring Signature Scheme with a Leader-Participant Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guomin Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital signature schemes with additional properties have broad applications, such as in protecting the identity of signers allowing a signer to anonymously sign a message in a group of signers (also known as a ring. While these number-theoretic problems are still secure at the time of this research, the situation could change with advances in quantum computing. There is a pressing need to design PKC schemes that are secure against quantum attacks. In this paper, we propose a novel code-based threshold ring signature scheme with a leader-participant model. A leader is appointed, who chooses some shared parameters for other signers to participate in the signing process. This leader-participant model enhances the performance because every participant including the leader could execute the decoding algorithm (as a part of signing process upon receiving the shared parameters from the leader. The time complexity of our scheme is close to Courtois et al.’s (2001 scheme. The latter is often used as a basis to construct other types of code-based signature schemes. Moreover, as a threshold ring signature scheme, our scheme is as efficient as the normal code-based ring signature.

  2. Prediction Model and Principle of End-of-Life Threshold for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Open Circuit Voltage Drifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Yang, Jie; Du, Chunyu; Zuo, Pengjian; Gao, Yunzhi; Cheng, Xinqun; Ma, Yulin; Yin, Geping

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Open circuit voltage evolution over ageing of lithium ion batteries is deciphered. •The mechanism responsible for the end-of-life (EOL) threshold is elaborated. •A new prediction model of EOL threshold with improved accuracy is developed. •This EOL prediction model is promising for the applications in electric vehicles. -- Abstract: The end-of-life (EOL) of a lithium ion battery (LIB) is defined as the time point when the LIB can no longer provide sufficient power or energy to accomplish its intended function. Generally, the EOL occurs abruptly when the degradation of a LIB reaches the threshold. Therefore, current prediction methods of EOL by extrapolating the early degradation behavior often result in significant errors. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the reason for the EOL threshold of a LIB with shallow depth of discharge. It is found that the sudden appearance of EOL threshold results from the drift of open circuit voltage (OCV) at the end of both shallow depth and full discharges. Further, a new EOL threshold prediction model with highly improved accuracy is developed based on the OCV drifts and their evolution mechanism, which can effectively avoid the misjudgment of EOL threshold. The accuracy of this EOL threshold prediction model is verified by comparing with experimental results. The EOL threshold prediction model can be applied to other battery chemistry systems and its possible application in electric vehicles is finally discussed.

  3. Genotoxic thresholds, DNA repair, and susceptibility in human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Gareth J.S.; Zair, Zoulikha; Johnson, George E.; Doak, Shareen H.

    2010-01-01

    It has been long assumed that DNA damage is induced in a linear manner with respect to the dose of a direct acting genotoxin. Thus, it is implied that direct acting genotoxic agents induce DNA damage at even the lowest of concentrations and that no 'safe' dose range exists. The linear (non-threshold) paradigm has led to the one-hit model being developed. This 'one hit' scenario can be interpreted such that a single DNA damaging event in a cell has the capability to induce a single point mutation in that cell which could (if positioned in a key growth controlling gene) lead to increased proliferation, leading ultimately to the formation of a tumour. There are many groups (including our own) who, for a decade or more, have argued, that low dose exposures to direct acting genotoxins may be tolerated by cells through homeostatic mechanisms such as DNA repair. This argument stems from the existence of evolutionary adaptive mechanisms that allow organisms to adapt to low levels of exogenous sources of genotoxins. We have been particularly interested in the genotoxic effects of known mutagens at low dose exposures in human cells and have identified for the first time, in vitro genotoxic thresholds for several mutagenic alkylating agents (Doak et al., 2007). Our working hypothesis is that DNA repair is primarily responsible for these thresholded effects at low doses by removing low levels of DNA damage but becoming saturated at higher doses. We are currently assessing the roles of base excision repair (BER) and methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) for roles in the identified thresholds (Doak et al., 2008). This research area is currently important as it assesses whether 'safe' exposure levels to mutagenic chemicals can exist and allows risk assessment using appropriate safety factors to define such exposure levels. Given human variation, the mechanistic basis for genotoxic thresholds (e.g. DNA repair) has to be well defined in order that susceptible individuals are

  4. Threshold-driven optimization for reference-based auto-planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Troy; Chen, Mingli; Jiang, Steve; Lu, Weiguo

    2018-02-01

    We study threshold-driven optimization methodology for automatically generating a treatment plan that is motivated by a reference DVH for IMRT treatment planning. We present a framework for threshold-driven optimization for reference-based auto-planning (TORA). Commonly used voxel-based quadratic penalties have two components for penalizing under- and over-dosing of voxels: a reference dose threshold and associated penalty weight. Conventional manual- and auto-planning using such a function involves iteratively updating the preference weights while keeping the thresholds constant, an unintuitive and often inconsistent method for planning toward some reference DVH. However, driving a dose distribution by threshold values instead of preference weights can achieve similar plans with less computational effort. The proposed methodology spatially assigns reference DVH information to threshold values, and iteratively improves the quality of that assignment. The methodology effectively handles both sub-optimal and infeasible DVHs. TORA was applied to a prostate case and a liver case as a proof-of-concept. Reference DVHs were generated using a conventional voxel-based objective, then altered to be either infeasible or easy-to-achieve. TORA was able to closely recreate reference DVHs in 5-15 iterations of solving a simple convex sub-problem. TORA has the potential to be effective for auto-planning based on reference DVHs. As dose prediction and knowledge-based planning becomes more prevalent in the clinical setting, incorporating such data into the treatment planning model in a clear, efficient way will be crucial for automated planning. A threshold-focused objective tuning should be explored over conventional methods of updating preference weights for DVH-guided treatment planning.

  5. Threshold switching uniformity in In2Se3 nanowire-based phase change memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Jian; Du Gang; Liu Xiao-Yan

    2015-01-01

    The uniformity of threshold voltage and threshold current in the In 2 Se 3 nanowire-based phase change memory (PCM) devices is investigated. Based on the trap-limited transport model, amorphous layer thickness, trap density, and trap depth are considered to clarify their influences upon the threshold voltage and threshold current through simulations. (paper)

  6. Identifying thresholds for ecosystem-based management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jameal F Samhouri

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: One of the greatest obstacles to moving ecosystem-based management (EBM from concept to practice is the lack of a systematic approach to defining ecosystem-level decision criteria, or reference points that trigger management action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assist resource managers and policymakers in developing EBM decision criteria, we introduce a quantitative, transferable method for identifying utility thresholds. A utility threshold is the level of human-induced pressure (e.g., pollution at which small changes produce substantial improvements toward the EBM goal of protecting an ecosystem's structural (e.g., diversity and functional (e.g., resilience attributes. The analytical approach is based on the detection of nonlinearities in relationships between ecosystem attributes and pressures. We illustrate the method with a hypothetical case study of (1 fishing and (2 nearshore habitat pressure using an empirically-validated marine ecosystem model for British Columbia, Canada, and derive numerical threshold values in terms of the density of two empirically-tractable indicator groups, sablefish and jellyfish. We also describe how to incorporate uncertainty into the estimation of utility thresholds and highlight their value in the context of understanding EBM trade-offs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: For any policy scenario, an understanding of utility thresholds provides insight into the amount and type of management intervention required to make significant progress toward improved ecosystem structure and function. The approach outlined in this paper can be applied in the context of single or multiple human-induced pressures, to any marine, freshwater, or terrestrial ecosystem, and should facilitate more effective management.

  7. Donor-specific cell-based assays in studying sensitivity to low-dose radiation: a population-based perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora eIl'yasova

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a linear no-threshold model is used to estimate health risks associated with exposure to low-dose radiation, a prevalent exposure in the general population, because the direct estimation from epidemiological studies suffers from uncertainty. This model has been criticized based on unique biology of low-dose radiation. Whether the departure from linearity is toward increased or decreased risk is intensely debated. We present an approach based on individual radiosensitivity testing and discuss how individual radiosensitivity can be assessed with the goal to develop a quantifiable measure of cellular response that can be conducted via high-throughput population testing.

  8. Development of a population-based threshold model of conidial germination for analysing the effects of physiological manipulation on the stress tolerance and infectivity of insect pathogenic fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, M; Magan, N; Mead, A; Chandler, D

    2006-09-01

    Entomopathogenic fungi are being used as biocontrol agents of insect pests, but their efficacy can be poor in environments where water availability is reduced. In this study, the potential to improve biocontrol by physiologically manipulating fungal inoculum was investigated. Cultures of Beauveria bassiana, Lecanicillium muscarium, Lecanicillium longisporum, Metarhizium anisopliae and Paecilomyces fumosoroseus were manipulated by growing them under conditions of water stress, which produced conidia with increased concentrations of erythritol. The time-course of germination of conidia at different water activities (water activity, aw) was described using a generalized linear model, and in most cases reducing the water activity of the germination medium delayed the onset of germination without affecting the distribution of germination times. The germination of M. anisopliae, L. muscarium, L. longisporum and P. fumosoroseus was accelerated over a range of aw levels as a result of physiological manipulation. However, the relationship between the effect of physiological manipulation on germination and the osmolyte content of conidia varied according to fungal species. There was a linear relationship between germination rate, expressed as the reciprocal of germination time, and aw of the germination medium, but there was no significant effect of fungal species or physiological manipulation on the aw threshold for germination. In bioassays with M. anisopliae, physiologically manipulated conidia germinated more rapidly on the surface of an insect host, the melon cotton aphid Aphis gossypii, and fungal virulence was increased even when relative humidity was reduced after an initial high period. It is concluded that physiological manipulation may lead to improvements in biocontrol in the field, but choice of fungal species/isolate will be critical. In addition, the population-based threshold model used in this study, which considered germination in terms of physiological

  9. Population sensitivities of animals to chronic ionizing radiation-model predictions from mice to elephant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazykina, Tatiana G

    2018-02-01

    Model predictions of population response to chronic ionizing radiation (endpoint 'morbidity') were made for 11 species of warm-blooded animals, differing in body mass and lifespan - from mice to elephant. Predictions were made also for 3 bird species (duck, pigeon, and house sparrow). Calculations were based on analytical solutions of the mathematical model, simulating a population response to low-LET ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource (Sazykina, Kryshev, 2016). Model parameters for different species were taken from biological and radioecological databases; allometric relationships were employed for estimating some parameter values. As a threshold of decreased health status in exposed populations ('health threshold'), a 10% reduction in self-repairing capacity of organisms was suggested, associated with a decline in ability to sustain environmental stresses. Results of the modeling demonstrate a general increase of population vulnerability to ionizing radiation in animal species of larger size and longevity. Populations of small widespread species (mice, house sparrow; body mass 20-50 g), which are characterized by intensive metabolism and short lifespan, have calculated 'health thresholds' at dose rates about 6.5-7.5 mGy day -1 . Widespread animals with body mass 200-500 g (rat, common pigeon) - demonstrate 'health threshold' values at 4-5 mGy day -1 . For populations of animals with body mass 2-5 kg (rabbit, fox, raccoon), the indicators of 10% health decrease are in the range 2-3.4 mGy day -1 . For animals with body mass 40-100 kg (wolf, sheep, wild boar), thresholds are within 0.5-0.8 mGy day -1 ; for herbivorous animals with body mass 200-300 kg (deer, horse) - 0.5-0.6 mGy day -1 . The lowest health threshold was estimated for elephant (body mass around 5000 kg) - 0.1 mGy day -1 . According to the model results, the differences in population sensitivities of warm-blooded animal species to ionizing radiation are generally

  10. The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

  11. Analytical drift-current threshold voltage model of long-channel double-gate MOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shih, Chun-Hsing; Wang, Jhong-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a new, physical threshold voltage model to solve the ambiguity in determining the threshold voltage of double-gate (DG) MOSFETs. To avoid the difficulties of the conventional 2ψ B model in nearly undoped DG MOSFETs, this study proposes to define the on–off switching based on the actual roles of the drift and diffusion components in the total drain current. The drift current strongly enhances beyond the threshold voltage, while the diffusion current plays a major role in the subthreshold. The threshold voltage is defined as the drift component that exceeds the diffusion counterpart. From the solutions of Poisson's equation, the drift and diffusion currents of DG MOSFETs are separately formulated to derive the analytical expressions of the threshold voltage and associated threshold current. This model provides a comprehensive description of the switching behavior of DG MOSFET devices, and offers a physical onset threshold current to determine the threshold voltage in practical extraction

  12. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  13. Modelling the regulatory system for diabetes mellitus with a threshold window

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

    2015-05-01

    Piecewise (or non-smooth) glucose-insulin models with threshold windows for type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus are proposed and analyzed with a view to improving understanding of the glucose-insulin regulatory system. For glucose-insulin models with a single threshold, the existence and stability of regular, virtual, pseudo-equilibria and tangent points are addressed. Then the relations between regular equilibria and a pseudo-equilibrium are studied. Furthermore, the sufficient and necessary conditions for the global stability of regular equilibria and the pseudo-equilibrium are provided by using qualitative analysis techniques of non-smooth Filippov dynamic systems. Sliding bifurcations related to boundary node bifurcations were investigated with theoretical and numerical techniques, and insulin clinical therapies are discussed. For glucose-insulin models with a threshold window, the effects of glucose thresholds or the widths of threshold windows on the durations of insulin therapy and glucose infusion were addressed. The duration of the effects of an insulin injection is sensitive to the variation of thresholds. Our results indicate that blood glucose level can be maintained within a normal range using piecewise glucose-insulin models with a single threshold or a threshold window. Moreover, our findings suggest that it is critical to individualise insulin therapy for each patient separately, based on initial blood glucose levels.

  14. Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

    2016-07-15

    We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

  15. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  16. History-Based Response Threshold Model for Division of Labor in Multi-Agent Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wonki; Kim, DaeEun

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic task allocation is a necessity in a group of robots. Each member should decide its own task such that it is most commensurate with its current state in the overall system. In this work, the response threshold model is applied to a dynamic foraging task. Each robot employs a task switching function based on the local task demand obtained from the surrounding environment, and no communication occurs between the robots. Each individual member has a constant-sized task demand history that reflects the global demand. In addition, it has response threshold values for all of the tasks and manages the task switching process depending on the stimuli of the task demands. The robot then determines the task to be executed to regulate the overall division of labor. This task selection induces a specialized tendency for performing a specific task and regulates the division of labor. In particular, maintaining a history of the task demands is very effective for the dynamic foraging task. Various experiments are performed using a simulation with multiple robots, and the results show that the proposed algorithm is more effective as compared to the conventional model. PMID:28555031

  17. Fusion of Thresholding Rules During Wavelet-Based Noisy Image Compression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekhtin Yury

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The new method for combining semisoft thresholding rules during wavelet-based data compression of images with multiplicative noise is suggested. The method chooses the best thresholding rule and the threshold value using the proposed criteria which provide the best nonlinear approximations and take into consideration errors of quantization. The results of computer modeling have shown that the suggested method provides relatively good image quality after restoration in the sense of some criteria such as PSNR, SSIM, etc.

  18. Model Threshold untuk Pembelajaran Memproduksi Pantun Kelas XI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitri Nura Murti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The learning pantun method in schools provided less opportunity to develop the students’ creativity in producing pantun. This situation was supported by the result of the observation conducted on eleventh graders at SMAN 2 Bondowoso. It showed that the students tend to plagiarize their pantun. The general objective of this research and development is to develop Threshold Pantun model for learning to produce pantun for elevent graders. The product was presented in guidance book for teachers entitled “Pembelajaran Memproduksi Pantun Menggunakan Model Threshold Pantun untuk Kelas XI”. This study adapted design method of Borg-Gall’s R&D procedure. The result of this study showed that Threshold Pantun model was appropriate to be implemented for learning to produce pantun. Key Words: Threshold Pantun model, produce pantun Abstrak: Pembelajaran pantun di sekolah selama ini kurang mengembangkan kreativitas siswa dalam memproduksi pantun. Hal tersebut dikuatkan oleh hasil observasi siswa kelas XI SMAN 2 Bondowoso yang menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan produk siswa bersifat plagiat. Tujuan penelitian dan pengembangan ini secara umum adalah mengembangkan model Threshold Pantun untuk pembelajaran memproduksi pantun kelas XI..Produk disajikan dalam bentuk buku panduan bagi guru dengan judul “Pembelajaran Memproduksi Pantun Menggunakan Model Threshold Pantun untuk Kelas XI”. Penelitian ini menggunakan rancangan penelitian yang diadaptasi dari prosedur penelitian dan pengembangan Borg dan Gall. Berdasarkan hasil validasi model Threshold Pantun untuk pembelajaran memproduksi pantun layak diimplementasikan. Kata kunci: model Threshold Pantun, memproduksi pantun

  19. Analytical connection between thresholds and immunization strategies of SIS model in random networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ming-Yang; Xiong, Wen-Man; Liao, Hao; Wang, Tong; Wei, Zong-Wen; Fu, Zhong-Qian

    2018-05-01

    Devising effective strategies for hindering the propagation of viruses and protecting the population against epidemics is critical for public security and health. Despite a number of studies based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model devoted to this topic, we still lack a general framework to compare different immunization strategies in completely random networks. Here, we address this problem by suggesting a novel method based on heterogeneous mean-field theory for the SIS model. Our method builds the relationship between the thresholds and different immunization strategies in completely random networks. Besides, we provide an analytical argument that the targeted large-degree strategy achieves the best performance in random networks with arbitrary degree distribution. Moreover, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in both artificial and real-world networks.

  20. Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

    2012-07-01

    Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for

  1. Stylized facts from a threshold-based heterogeneous agent model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, R.; Grinfeld, M.; Lamba, H.; Seaman, T.

    2007-05-01

    A class of heterogeneous agent models is investigated where investors switch trading position whenever their motivation to do so exceeds some critical threshold. These motivations can be psychological in nature or reflect behaviour suggested by the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). By introducing different propensities into a baseline model that displays EMH behaviour, one can attempt to isolate their effects upon the market dynamics. The simulation results indicate that the introduction of a herding propensity results in excess kurtosis and power-law decay consistent with those observed in actual return distributions, but not in significant long-term volatility correlations. Possible alternatives for introducing such long-term volatility correlations are then identified and discussed.

  2. Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrickson-Rebizant, J; Sigvaldason, H; Nason, R W; Pathak, K A

    2015-08-01

    Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort. Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models. The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years. The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A threshold model of investor psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Rod; Grinfeld, Michael; Lamba, Harbir; Seaman, Tim

    2005-08-01

    We introduce a class of agent-based market models founded upon simple descriptions of investor psychology. Agents are subject to various psychological tensions induced by market conditions and endowed with a minimal ‘personality’. This personality consists of a threshold level for each of the tensions being modeled, and the agent reacts whenever a tension threshold is reached. This paper considers an elementary model including just two such tensions. The first is ‘cowardice’, which is the stress caused by remaining in a minority position with respect to overall market sentiment and leads to herding-type behavior. The second is ‘inaction’, which is the increasing desire to act or re-evaluate one's investment position. There is no inductive learning by agents and they are only coupled via the global market price and overall market sentiment. Even incorporating just these two psychological tensions, important stylized facts of real market data, including fat-tails, excess kurtosis, uncorrelated price returns and clustered volatility over the timescale of a few days are reproduced. By then introducing an additional parameter that amplifies the effect of externally generated market noise during times of extreme market sentiment, long-time volatility correlations can also be recovered.

  4. Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenstein, Patricia E; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A; Pentel, Paul R; LeSage, Mark G

    2015-06-01

    The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self-administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenstein, Patricia E.; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A.; Pentel, Paul R.; LeSage, Mark G.

    2015-01-01

    Background The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. Methods The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self- administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Results Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. Conclusions These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. PMID:25891231

  6. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  7. Comparing population and incident data for optimal air ambulance base locations in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røislien, Jo; van den Berg, Pieter L; Lindner, Thomas; Zakariassen, Erik; Uleberg, Oddvar; Aardal, Karen; van Essen, J Theresia

    2018-05-24

    Helicopter emergency medical services are important in many health care systems. Norway has a nationwide physician manned air ambulance service servicing a country with large geographical variations in population density and incident frequencies. The aim of the study was to compare optimal air ambulance base locations using both population and incident data. We used municipality population and incident data for Norway from 2015. The 428 municipalities had a median (5-95 percentile) of 4675 (940-36,264) inhabitants and 10 (2-38) incidents. Optimal helicopter base locations were estimated using the Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) optimization model, exploring the number and location of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for time thresholds 30 and 45 min, in green field scenarios and conditioned on the existing base structure. The existing bases covered 96.90% of the population and 91.86% of the incidents for time threshold 45 min. Correlation between municipality population and incident frequencies was -0.0027, and optimal base locations varied markedly between the two data types, particularly when lowering the target time. The optimal solution using population density data put focus on the greater Oslo area, where one third of Norwegians live, while using incident data put focus on low population high incident areas, such as northern Norway and winter sport resorts. Using population density data as a proxy for incident frequency is not recommended, as the two data types lead to different optimal base locations. Lowering the target time increases the sensitivity to choice of data.

  8. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  9. Framework for determining airport daily departure and arrival delay thresholds: statistical modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesonga, Ronald; Nabugoomu, Fabian

    2016-01-01

    The study derives a framework for assessing airport efficiency through evaluating optimal arrival and departure delay thresholds. Assumptions of airport efficiency measurements, though based upon minimum numeric values such as 15 min of turnaround time, cannot be extrapolated to determine proportions of delay-days of an airport. This study explored the concept of delay threshold to determine the proportion of delay-days as an expansion of the theory of delay and our previous work. Data-driven approach using statistical modelling was employed to a limited set of determinants of daily delay at an airport. For the purpose of testing the efficacy of the threshold levels, operational data for Entebbe International Airport were used as a case study. Findings show differences in the proportions of delay at departure (μ = 0.499; 95 % CI = 0.023) and arrival (μ = 0.363; 95 % CI = 0.022). Multivariate logistic model confirmed an optimal daily departure and arrival delay threshold of 60 % for the airport given the four probable thresholds {50, 60, 70, 80}. The decision for the threshold value was based on the number of significant determinants, the goodness of fit statistics based on the Wald test and the area under the receiver operating curves. These findings propose a modelling framework to generate relevant information for the Air Traffic Management relevant in planning and measurement of airport operational efficiency.

  10. A phenomenological model on the kink mode threshold varying with the inclination of sheath boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, X.; Intrator, T. P.; Sears, J.; Weber, T.; Liu, M.

    2013-01-01

    In nature and many laboratory plasmas, a magnetic flux tube threaded by current or a flux rope has a footpoint at a boundary. The current driven kink mode is one of the fundamental ideal magnetohydrodynamic instabilities in plasmas. It has an instability threshold that has been found to strongly depend on boundary conditions (BCs). We provide a theoretical model to explain the transition of this threshold dependence between nonline tied and line tied boundary conditions. We evaluate model parameters using experimentally measured plasma data, explicitly verify several kink eigenfunctions, and validate the model predictions for boundary conditions BCs that span the range between NLT and LT BCs. Based on this model, one could estimate the kink threshold given knowledge of the displacement of a flux rope end, or conversely estimate flux rope end motion based on knowledge of it kink stability threshold

  11. Analytical details of the instability threshold of the laser-Lorenz model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakasov, A.A.; Abraham, N.B.

    1992-11-01

    An exact analysis of the second threshold of a single-mode homogeneously broadened laser is given for the most general operating conditions. We provide a general analytical proof that increasing the detuning increases the second threshold is given. An analysis of the second threshold at a fixed detuning and of the ratio of the second threshold to the first threshold reveals that the smallest values occur when the population relaxation rate is minimized. (author). 13 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  12. Threshold model of cascades in empirical temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Fariba; Holme, Petter

    2013-08-01

    Threshold models try to explain the consequences of social influence like the spread of fads and opinions. Along with models of epidemics, they constitute a major theoretical framework of social spreading processes. In threshold models on static networks, an individual changes her state if a certain fraction of her neighbors has done the same. When there are strong correlations in the temporal aspects of contact patterns, it is useful to represent the system as a temporal network. In such a system, not only contacts but also the time of the contacts are represented explicitly. In many cases, bursty temporal patterns slow down disease spreading. However, as we will see, this is not a universal truth for threshold models. In this work we propose an extension of Watts’s classic threshold model to temporal networks. We do this by assuming that an agent is influenced by contacts which lie a certain time into the past. I.e., the individuals are affected by contacts within a time window. In addition to thresholds in the fraction of contacts, we also investigate the number of contacts within the time window as a basis for influence. To elucidate the model’s behavior, we run the model on real and randomized empirical contact datasets.

  13. Use of Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) with High Throughput Exposure Predictions as a Risk-Based Screening Approach to Prioritize More Than Seven Thousand Chemicals (ASCCT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here, we present results of an approach for risk-based prioritization using the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) combined with high-throughput exposure (HTE) modelling. We started with 7968 chemicals with calculated population median oral daily intakes characterized by an...

  14. A generalized methodology for identification of threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M, J.; Sudheer, K.; Chaubey, I.; Raj, C.

    2016-12-01

    The distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a comprehensive hydrologic model widely used for making various decisions. The simulation accuracy of the distributed hydrological model differs due to the mechanism involved in the subdivision of the watershed. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) considers sub-dividing the watershed and the sub-basins into small computing units known as 'hydrologic response units (HRU). The delineation of HRU is done based on unique combinations of land use, soil types, and slope within the sub-watersheds, which are not spatially defined. The computations in SWAT are done at HRU level and are then aggregated up to the sub-basin outlet, which is routed through the stream system. Generally, the HRUs are delineated by considering a threshold percentage of land use, soil and slope are to be given by the modeler to decrease the computation time of the model. The thresholds constrain the minimum area for constructing an HRU. In the current HRU delineation practice in SWAT, the land use, soil and slope of the watershed within a sub-basin, which is less than the predefined threshold, will be surpassed by the dominating land use, soil and slope, and introduce some level of ambiguity in the process simulations in terms of inappropriate representation of the area. But the loss of information due to variation in the threshold values depends highly on the purpose of the study. Therefore this research studies the effects of threshold values of HRU delineation on the hydrological modeling of SWAT on sediment simulations and suggests guidelines for selecting the appropriate threshold values considering the sediment simulation accuracy. The preliminary study was done on Illinois watershed by assigning different thresholds for land use and soil. A general methodology was proposed for identifying an appropriate threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model that considered computational time and accuracy of the simulation

  15. Theory of threshold phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel

    2002-01-01

    Theory of Threshold Phenomena in Quantum Scattering is developed in terms of Reduced Scattering Matrix. Relationships of different types of threshold anomalies both to nuclear reaction mechanisms and to nuclear reaction models are established. Magnitude of threshold effect is related to spectroscopic factor of zero-energy neutron state. The Theory of Threshold Phenomena, based on Reduced Scattering Matrix, does establish relationships between different types of threshold effects and nuclear reaction mechanisms: the cusp and non-resonant potential scattering, s-wave threshold anomaly and compound nucleus resonant scattering, p-wave anomaly and quasi-resonant scattering. A threshold anomaly related to resonant or quasi resonant scattering is enhanced provided the neutron threshold state has large spectroscopic amplitude. The Theory contains, as limit cases, Cusp Theories and also results of different nuclear reactions models as Charge Exchange, Weak Coupling, Bohr and Hauser-Feshbach models. (author)

  16. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  17. Porcine skin visible lesion thresholds for near-infrared lasers including modeling at two pulse durations and spot sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cain, C P; Polhamus, G D; Roach, W P; Stolarski, D J; Schuster, K J; Stockton, K L; Rockwell, B A; Chen, Bo; Welch, A J

    2006-01-01

    With the advent of such systems as the airborne laser and advanced tactical laser, high-energy lasers that use 1315-nm wavelengths in the near-infrared band will soon present a new laser safety challenge to armed forces and civilian populations. Experiments in nonhuman primates using this wavelength have demonstrated a range of ocular injuries, including corneal, lenticular, and retinal lesions as a function of pulse duration. American National Standards Institute (ANSI) laser safety standards have traditionally been based on experimental data, and there is scant data for this wavelength. We are reporting minimum visible lesion (MVL) threshold measurements using a porcine skin model for two different pulse durations and spot sizes for this wavelength. We also compare our measurements to results from our model based on the heat transfer equation and rate process equation, together with actual temperature measurements on the skin surface using a high-speed infrared camera. Our MVL-ED50 thresholds for long pulses (350 micros) at 24-h postexposure are measured to be 99 and 83 J cm(-2) for spot sizes of 0.7 and 1.3 mm diam, respectively. Q-switched laser pulses of 50 ns have a lower threshold of 11 J cm(-2) for a 5-mm-diam top-hat laser pulse.

  18. Mob control models of threshold collective behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Breer, Vladimir V; Rogatkin, Andrey D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents mathematical models of mob control with threshold (conformity) collective decision-making of the agents. Based on the results of analysis of the interconnection between the micro- and macromodels of active network structures, it considers the static (deterministic, stochastic and game-theoretic) and dynamic (discrete- and continuous-time) models of mob control, and highlights models of informational confrontation. Many of the results are applicable not only to mob control problems, but also to control problems arising in social groups, online social networks, etc. Aimed at researchers and practitioners, it is also a valuable resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students as well as doctoral candidates specializing in the field of collective behavior modeling.

  19. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under modelbased framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  20. Novel threshold pressure sensors based on nonlinear dynamics of MEMS resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Mohammad H.; Alsaleem, Fadi M.; Ouakad, Hassen M.

    2018-06-01

    Triggering an alarm in a car for low air-pressure in the tire or tripping an HVAC compressor if the refrigerant pressure is lower than a threshold value are examples for applications where measuring the amount of pressure is not as important as determining if the pressure has exceeded a threshold value for an action to occur. Unfortunately, current technology still relies on analog pressure sensors to perform this functionality by adding a complex interface (extra circuitry, controllers, and/or decision units). In this paper, we demonstrate two new smart tunable-threshold pressure switch concepts that can reduce the complexity of a threshold pressure sensor. The first concept is based on the nonlinear subharmonic resonance of a straight double cantilever microbeam with a proof mass and the other concept is based on the snap-through bi-stability of a clamped-clamped MEMS shallow arch. In both designs, the sensor operation concept is simple. Any actuation performed at a certain pressure lower than a threshold value will activate a nonlinear dynamic behavior (subharmonic resonance or snap-through bi-stability) yielding a large output that would be interpreted as a logic value of ONE, or ON. Once the pressure exceeds the threshold value, the nonlinear response ceases to exist, yielding a small output that would be interpreted as a logic value of ZERO, or OFF. A lumped, single degree of freedom model for the double cantilever beam, that is validated using experimental data, and a continuous beam model for the arch beam, are used to simulate the operation range of the proposed sensors by identifying the relationship between the excitation signal and the critical cut-off pressure.

  1. Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Penelope Holland

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

  2. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  3. Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright

  4. Selection Strategies for Social Influence in the Threshold Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karampourniotis, Panagiotis; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    The ubiquity of online social networks makes the study of social influence extremely significant for its applications to marketing, politics and security. Maximizing the spread of influence by strategically selecting nodes as initiators of a new opinion or trend is a challenging problem. We study the performance of various strategies for selection of large fractions of initiators on a classical social influence model, the Threshold model (TM). Under the TM, a node adopts a new opinion only when the fraction of its first neighbors possessing that opinion exceeds a pre-assigned threshold. The strategies we study are of two kinds: strategies based solely on the initial network structure (Degree-rank, Dominating Sets, PageRank etc.) and strategies that take into account the change of the states of the nodes during the evolution of the cascade, e.g. the greedy algorithm. We find that the performance of these strategies depends largely on both the network structure properties, e.g. the assortativity, and the distribution of the thresholds assigned to the nodes. We conclude that the optimal strategy needs to combine the network specifics and the model specific parameters to identify the most influential spreaders. Supported in part by ARL NS-CTA, ARO, and ONR.

  5. Cumulative t-link threshold models for the genetic analysis of calving ease scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tempelman Robert J

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this study, a hierarchical threshold mixed model based on a cumulative t-link specification for the analysis of ordinal data or more, specifically, calving ease scores, was developed. The validation of this model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm was carried out on simulated data from normally and t4 (i.e. a t-distribution with four degrees of freedom distributed populations using the deviance information criterion (DIC and a pseudo Bayes factor (PBF measure to validate recently proposed model choice criteria. The simulation study indicated that although inference on the degrees of freedom parameter is possible, MCMC mixing was problematic. Nevertheless, the DIC and PBF were validated to be satisfactory measures of model fit to data. A sire and maternal grandsire cumulative t-link model was applied to a calving ease dataset from 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams. The cumulative t-link model was shown to lead to posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities (0.40 ± 0.06, 0.11 ± 0.04 and a direct maternal genetic correlation (-0.58 ± 0.15 that were not different from the corresponding posterior means of the heritabilities (0.42 ± 0.07, 0.14 ± 0.04 and the genetic correlation (-0.55 ± 0.14 inferred under the conventional cumulative probit link threshold model. Furthermore, the correlation (> 0.99 between posterior means of sire progeny merit from the two models suggested no meaningful rerankings. Nevertheless, the cumulative t-link model was decisively chosen as the better fitting model for this calving ease data using DIC and PBF.

  6. Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekamwasam, Sarath

    2013-01-01

    There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.

  7. The threshold bias model: a mathematical model for the nomothetic approach of suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra

    2011-01-01

    Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health.

  8. Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua Millspaugh

    2011-01-01

    Landscape-based population models are potentially valuable tools in facilitating conservation planning and actions at large scales. However, such models have rarely been applied at ecoregional scales. We extended landscape-based population models to ecoregional scales for three species of concern in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region and compared model...

  9. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Roberto Fonseca

    Full Text Available Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  10. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

    2013-01-01

    Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  11. [Polygenic threshold model and the phenogenetic aspects of human fingerprints].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voĭtenko, V P; Poliukhov, A M

    1981-01-01

    Based on the existence of the two genetic complexes determining finger prints (SU - spiral and SR - despiral), the two-compartment multithreshold polygenic model for systematization of finger prints has been proposed. It was found that the radial loop is genotypically not identical to the ulnar loop, as it was thought before, but differs very much from the latter by its print. The relative height of thresholds for each of 10 fingers has been measured. The two embryonal gradients have been established: one with a positive, and the other with a negative correlation between the threshold heights.

  12. Determination of prospective displacement-based gate threshold for respiratory-gated radiation delivery from retrospective phase-based gate threshold selected at 4D CT simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vedam, S.; Archambault, L.; Starkschall, G.; Mohan, R.; Beddar, S.

    2007-01-01

    Four-dimensional (4D) computed tomography (CT) imaging has found increasing importance in the localization of tumor and surrounding normal structures throughout the respiratory cycle. Based on such tumor motion information, it is possible to identify the appropriate phase interval for respiratory gated treatment planning and delivery. Such a gating phase interval is determined retrospectively based on tumor motion from internal tumor displacement. However, respiratory-gated treatment is delivered prospectively based on motion determined predominantly from an external monitor. Therefore, the simulation gate threshold determined from the retrospective phase interval selected for gating at 4D CT simulation may not correspond to the delivery gate threshold that is determined from the prospective external monitor displacement at treatment delivery. The purpose of the present work is to establish a relationship between the thresholds for respiratory gating determined at CT simulation and treatment delivery, respectively. One hundred fifty external respiratory motion traces, from 90 patients, with and without audio-visual biofeedback, are analyzed. Two respiratory phase intervals, 40%-60% and 30%-70%, are chosen for respiratory gating from the 4D CT-derived tumor motion trajectory. From residual tumor displacements within each such gating phase interval, a simulation gate threshold is defined based on (a) the average and (b) the maximum respiratory displacement within the phase interval. The duty cycle for prospective gated delivery is estimated from the proportion of external monitor displacement data points within both the selected phase interval and the simulation gate threshold. The delivery gate threshold is then determined iteratively to match the above determined duty cycle. The magnitude of the difference between such gate thresholds determined at simulation and treatment delivery is quantified in each case. Phantom motion tests yielded coincidence of simulation

  13. Single event upset threshold estimation based on local laser irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chumakov, A.I.; Egorov, A.N.; Mavritsky, O.B.; Yanenko, A.V.

    1999-01-01

    An approach for estimation of ion-induced SEU threshold based on local laser irradiation is presented. Comparative experiment and software simulation research were performed at various pulse duration and spot size. Correlation of single event threshold LET to upset threshold laser energy under local irradiation was found. The computer analysis of local laser irradiation of IC structures was developed for SEU threshold LET estimation. The correlation of local laser threshold energy with SEU threshold LET was shown. Two estimation techniques were suggested. The first one is based on the determination of local laser threshold dose taking into account the relation of sensitive area to local irradiated area. The second technique uses the photocurrent peak value instead of this relation. The agreement between the predicted and experimental results demonstrates the applicability of this approach. (authors)

  14. DOE approach to threshold quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Kluk, A.F.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC)

    1985-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Ideally, the threshold must be set high enough to significantly reduce the amount of waste requiring special handling. It must also be low enough so that waste at the threshold quantity poses a very small health risk and multiple exposures to such waste would still constitute a small health risk. It should also be practical to segregate waste above or below the threshold quantity using available instrumentation. Guidance is being prepared to aid DOE sites in establishing threshold quantity values based on pathways analysis using site-specific parameters (waste stream characteristics, maximum exposed individual, population considerations, and site specific parameters such as rainfall, etc.). A guidance dose of between 0.001 to 1.0 mSv/y (0.1 to 100 mrem/y) was recommended with 0.3 mSv/y (30 mrem/y) selected as the guidance dose upon which to base calculations. Several tasks were identified, beginning with the selection of a suitable pathway model for relating dose to the concentration of radioactivity in the waste. Threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose were determined for waste disposal sites at a selected humid and arid site. Finally, cost-benefit considerations at the example sites were addressed. The results of the various tasks are summarized and the relationship of this effort with related developments at other agencies discussed

  15. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT): Exploring the Factor Structure and Cutoff Thresholds in a Representative Post-Conflict Population in Northern Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Alden Hooper; Pearce, Margo Ellen; Katamba, Achilles; Malamba, Samuel S; Muyinda, Herbert; Schechter, Martin T; Spittal, Patricia M

    2017-05-01

    Despite increased use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have assessed its underlying conceptual framework, and none have done so in post-conflict settings. Further, significant inconsistencies exist between definitions used for problematic consumption. Such is the case in Uganda, facing one of the highest per-capita alcohol consumption levels regionally, which is thought to be hindering rebuilding in the North after two decades of civil war. This study explores the impact of varying designation cutoff thresholds in the AUDIT as well as its conceptual factor structure in a representative sample of the population. In all, 1720 Cango Lyec Project participants completed socio-economic and mental health questionnaires, provided blood samples and took the AUDIT. Participant characteristics and consumption designations were compared at AUDIT summary score thresholds of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥8. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) explored one-, two- and three-factor level models overall and by sex with relative and absolute fit indicators. There were no significant differences in participant demographic characteristics between thresholds. At higher cutoffs, the test increased in specificity to identify those with hazardous drinking, disordered drinking and suffering from alcohol-related harms. All conceptual models indicated good fit, with three-factor models superior overall and within both sexes. In Northern Uganda, a three-factor AUDIT model best explores alcohol use in the population and is appropriate for use in both sexes. Lower cutoff thresholds are recommended to identify those with potentially disordered drinking to best plan effective interventions and treatments. A CFA of the AUDIT showed good fit for one-, two, and three-factor models overall and by sex in a representative sample in post-conflict Northern Uganda. A three-plus total AUDIT cutoff score is suggested to screen for hazardous drinking in this or

  16. Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

    2014-01-01

    We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Threshold burnup for recrystallization and model for rim porosity in the high burnup UO2 fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Ho; Koo, Yang Hyun; Sohn, Dong Seong

    1998-01-01

    Applicability of the threshold burnup for rim formation was investigated as a function of temperature by Rest's model. The threshold burnup was the lowest in the intermediate temperature region, while on the other temperature regions the threshold burnup is higher. The rim porosity was predicted by the van der Waals equation based of the rim pore radius of 0.75μm and the overpressurization model on rim pores. The calculated centerline temperature is in good agreement with the measured temperature. However, more efforts seem to be necessary for the mechanistic model of the rim effect including rim growth with the fuel burnup

  18. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  19. Automatic Multi-Level Thresholding Segmentation Based on Multi-Objective Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. DJEROU,

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new multi-level image thresholding technique, called Automatic Threshold based on Multi-objective Optimization "ATMO" that combines the flexibility of multi-objective fitness functions with the power of a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm "BPSO", for searching the "optimum" number of the thresholds and simultaneously the optimal thresholds of three criteria: the between-class variances criterion, the minimum error criterion and the entropy criterion. Some examples of test images are presented to compare our segmentation method, based on the multi-objective optimization approach with Otsu’s, Kapur’s and Kittler’s methods. Our experimental results show that the thresholding method based on multi-objective optimization is more efficient than the classical Otsu’s, Kapur’s and Kittler’s methods.

  20. Power-Split Hybrid Electric Vehicle Energy Management Based on Improved Logic Threshold Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhumu Fu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We design an improved logic threshold approach of energy management for a power-split HEV assisted by an integrated starter generator (ISG. By combining the efficiency map and the optimum torque curve of internal combustion engine (ICE with the state of charge (SOC of batteries, the improved logic threshold controller manages the ICE within its peak efficiency region at first. Then the electrical power demand is established based on the ICE energy output. On that premise, a variable logic threshold value K is defined to achieve the power distribution between the ISG and the electric motor/generator (EMG. Finally, simulation models for the power-split HEV with improved logic threshold controller are established in ADVISOR. Compared to the equally power-split HEV with the logic threshold controller, when using the improved logic threshold controller, the battery power consumption, the ICE efficiency, the fuel consumption, and the motor driving system efficiency are improved.

  1. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  2. Genetic parameters for direct and maternal calving ease in Walloon dairy cattle based on linear and threshold models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderick, S; Troch, T; Gillon, A; Glorieux, G; Gengler, N

    2014-12-01

    Calving ease scores from Holstein dairy cattle in the Walloon Region of Belgium were analysed using univariate linear and threshold animal models. Variance components and derived genetic parameters were estimated from a data set including 33,155 calving records. Included in the models were season, herd and sex of calf × age of dam classes × group of calvings interaction as fixed effects, herd × year of calving, maternal permanent environment and animal direct and maternal additive genetic as random effects. Models were fitted with the genetic correlation between direct and maternal additive genetic effects either estimated or constrained to zero. Direct heritability for calving ease was approximately 8% with linear models and approximately 12% with threshold models. Maternal heritabilities were approximately 2 and 4%, respectively. Genetic correlation between direct and maternal additive effects was found to be not significantly different from zero. Models were compared in terms of goodness of fit and predictive ability. Criteria of comparison such as mean squared error, correlation between observed and predicted calving ease scores as well as between estimated breeding values were estimated from 85,118 calving records. The results provided few differences between linear and threshold models even though correlations between estimated breeding values from subsets of data for sires with progeny from linear model were 17 and 23% greater for direct and maternal genetic effects, respectively, than from threshold model. For the purpose of genetic evaluation for calving ease in Walloon Holstein dairy cattle, the linear animal model without covariance between direct and maternal additive effects was found to be the best choice. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  3. Algorithmic detectability threshold of the stochastic block model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamoto, Tatsuro

    2018-03-01

    The assumption that the values of model parameters are known or correctly learned, i.e., the Nishimori condition, is one of the requirements for the detectability analysis of the stochastic block model in statistical inference. In practice, however, there is no example demonstrating that we can know the model parameters beforehand, and there is no guarantee that the model parameters can be learned accurately. In this study, we consider the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm with belief propagation (BP) and derive its algorithmic detectability threshold. Our analysis is not restricted to the community structure but includes general modular structures. Because the algorithm cannot always learn the planted model parameters correctly, the algorithmic detectability threshold is qualitatively different from the one with the Nishimori condition.

  4. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  5. Density threshold for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyens, J.; Reijniers, J.; Borremans, B.

    2013-01-01

    . We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus...... is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion...

  6. Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

  7. Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

    2014-05-01

    This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

  8. Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo

    This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of Vector Threshold Regression models and that of Vector Smooth Transition Regression models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in the...

  9. Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

    2018-02-01

    The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

  10. Threshold voltage roll-off modelling of bilayer graphene field-effect transistors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saeidmanesh, M; Ismail, Razali; Khaledian, M; Karimi, H; Akbari, E

    2013-01-01

    An analytical model is presented for threshold voltage roll-off of double gate bilayer graphene field-effect transistors. To this end, threshold voltage models of short- and long-channel states have been developed. In the short-channel case, front and back gate potential distributions have been modelled and used. In addition, the tunnelling probability is modelled and its effect is taken into consideration in the potential distribution model. To evaluate the accuracy of the potential model, FlexPDE software is employed with proper boundary conditions and a good agreement is observed. Using the proposed models, the effect of several structural parameters on the threshold voltage and its roll-off are studied at room temperature. (paper)

  11. Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W; Jiang, Y

    2017-02-01

    This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of

  12. When do price thresholds matter in retail categories?

    OpenAIRE

    Pauwels, Koen; Srinivasan, Shuba; Franses, Philip Hans

    2007-01-01

    textabstractMarketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This paper introduces smooth transition regression models to study threshold-based price elasticity of the top 4 brands across 20 fast-moving consumer good categories. Threshold-based price elasticity is fo...

  13. Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

  14. Adaptive optics for reduced threshold energy in femtosecond laser induced optical breakdown in water based eye model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Anja; Krueger, Alexander; Ripken, Tammo

    2013-03-01

    In ophthalmic microsurgery tissue dissection is achieved using femtosecond laser pulses to create an optical breakdown. For vitreo-retinal applications the irradiance distribution in the focal volume is distorted by the anterior components of the eye causing a raised threshold energy for breakdown. In this work, an adaptive optics system enables spatial beam shaping for compensation of aberrations and investigation of wave front influence on optical breakdown. An eye model was designed to allow for aberration correction as well as detection of optical breakdown. The eye model consists of an achromatic lens for modeling the eye's refractive power, a water chamber for modeling the tissue properties, and a PTFE sample for modeling the retina's scattering properties. Aberration correction was performed using a deformable mirror in combination with a Hartmann-Shack-sensor. The influence of an adaptive optics aberration correction on the pulse energy required for photodisruption was investigated using transmission measurements for determination of the breakdown threshold and video imaging of the focal region for study of the gas bubble dynamics. The threshold energy is considerably reduced when correcting for the aberrations of the system and the model eye. Also, a raise in irradiance at constant pulse energy was shown for the aberration corrected case. The reduced pulse energy lowers the potential risk of collateral damage which is especially important for retinal safety. This offers new possibilities for vitreo-retinal surgery using femtosecond laser pulses.

  15. When Do Price Thresholds Matter in Retail Categories?

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Pauwels; Shuba Srinivasan; Philip Hans Franses

    2007-01-01

    Marketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This paper introduces smooth transition regression models to study threshold-based price elasticity of the top 4 brands across 20 fast-moving consumer good categories. Threshold-based price elasticity is found for 76% ...

  16. Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, P F E; de Bie, K; Rumpff, L

    2015-10-01

    We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future. © 2015 The

  17. Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

  18. A Threshold Continuum for Aeolian Sand Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, C.; Ewing, R. C.; Sherman, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport marks the initial entrainment of sand particles by the force of the wind. This is typically defined and modeled as a singular wind speed for a given grain size and is based on field and laboratory experimental data. However, the definition of threshold varies significantly between these empirical models, largely because the definition is based on visual-observations of initial grain movement. For example, in his seminal experiments, Bagnold defined threshold of motion when he observed that 100% of the bed was in motion. Others have used 50% and lesser values. Differences in threshold models, in turn, result is large errors in predicting the fluxes associated with sand and dust transport. Here we use a wind tunnel and novel sediment trap to capture the fractions of sand in creep, reptation and saltation at Earth and Mars pressures and show that the threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport is best defined as a continuum in which grains progress through stages defined by the proportion of grains in creep and saltation. We propose the use of scale dependent thresholds modeled by distinct probability distribution functions that differentiate the threshold based on micro to macro scale applications. For example, a geologic timescale application corresponds to a threshold when 100% of the bed in motion whereas a sub-second application corresponds to a threshold when a single particle is set in motion. We provide quantitative measurements (number and mode of particle movement) corresponding to visual observations, percent of bed in motion and degrees of transport intermittency for Earth and Mars. Understanding transport as a continuum provides a basis for revaluating sand transport thresholds on Earth, Mars and Titan.

  19. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  20. Model-Based Individualized Treatment of Chemotherapeutics: Bayesian Population Modeling and Dose Optimization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devaraj Jayachandran

    Full Text Available 6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP is one of the key drugs in the treatment of many pediatric cancers, auto immune diseases and inflammatory bowel disease. 6-MP is a prodrug, converted to an active metabolite 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN through enzymatic reaction involving thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT. Pharmacogenomic variation observed in the TPMT enzyme produces a significant variation in drug response among the patient population. Despite 6-MP's widespread use and observed variation in treatment response, efforts at quantitative optimization of dose regimens for individual patients are limited. In addition, research efforts devoted on pharmacogenomics to predict clinical responses are proving far from ideal. In this work, we present a Bayesian population modeling approach to develop a pharmacological model for 6-MP metabolism in humans. In the face of scarcity of data in clinical settings, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction approach is used to minimize the parameter space. For accurate estimation of sensitive parameters, robust optimal experimental design based on D-optimality criteria was exploited. With the patient-specific model, a model predictive control algorithm is used to optimize the dose scheduling with the objective of maintaining the 6-TGN concentration within its therapeutic window. More importantly, for the first time, we show how the incorporation of information from different levels of biological chain-of response (i.e. gene expression-enzyme phenotype-drug phenotype plays a critical role in determining the uncertainty in predicting therapeutic target. The model and the control approach can be utilized in the clinical setting to individualize 6-MP dosing based on the patient's ability to metabolize the drug instead of the traditional standard-dose-for-all approach.

  1. Model-Based Individualized Treatment of Chemotherapeutics: Bayesian Population Modeling and Dose Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayachandran, Devaraj; Laínez-Aguirre, José; Rundell, Ann; Vik, Terry; Hannemann, Robert; Reklaitis, Gintaras; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

    2015-01-01

    6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) is one of the key drugs in the treatment of many pediatric cancers, auto immune diseases and inflammatory bowel disease. 6-MP is a prodrug, converted to an active metabolite 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) through enzymatic reaction involving thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT). Pharmacogenomic variation observed in the TPMT enzyme produces a significant variation in drug response among the patient population. Despite 6-MP’s widespread use and observed variation in treatment response, efforts at quantitative optimization of dose regimens for individual patients are limited. In addition, research efforts devoted on pharmacogenomics to predict clinical responses are proving far from ideal. In this work, we present a Bayesian population modeling approach to develop a pharmacological model for 6-MP metabolism in humans. In the face of scarcity of data in clinical settings, a global sensitivity analysis based model reduction approach is used to minimize the parameter space. For accurate estimation of sensitive parameters, robust optimal experimental design based on D-optimality criteria was exploited. With the patient-specific model, a model predictive control algorithm is used to optimize the dose scheduling with the objective of maintaining the 6-TGN concentration within its therapeutic window. More importantly, for the first time, we show how the incorporation of information from different levels of biological chain-of response (i.e. gene expression-enzyme phenotype-drug phenotype) plays a critical role in determining the uncertainty in predicting therapeutic target. The model and the control approach can be utilized in the clinical setting to individualize 6-MP dosing based on the patient’s ability to metabolize the drug instead of the traditional standard-dose-for-all approach. PMID:26226448

  2. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Threshold Learning Dynamics in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Avella, Juan Carlos; Eguíluz, Victor M.; Marsili, Matteo; Vega-Redondo, Fernado; San Miguel, Maxi

    2011-01-01

    Social learning is defined as the ability of a population to aggregate information, a process which must crucially depend on the mechanisms of social interaction. Consumers choosing which product to buy, or voters deciding which option to take with respect to an important issue, typically confront external signals to the information gathered from their contacts. Economic models typically predict that correct social learning occurs in large populations unless some individuals display unbounded influence. We challenge this conclusion by showing that an intuitive threshold process of individual adjustment does not always lead to such social learning. We find, specifically, that three generic regimes exist separated by sharp discontinuous transitions. And only in one of them, where the threshold is within a suitable intermediate range, the population learns the correct information. In the other two, where the threshold is either too high or too low, the system either freezes or enters into persistent flux, respectively. These regimes are generally observed in different social networks (both complex or regular), but limited interaction is found to promote correct learning by enlarging the parameter region where it occurs. PMID:21637714

  4. An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratonovitch, Pierre; Elias, Jan; Denholm, Ian; Slater, Russell; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2014-01-01

    Preventing a pest population from damaging an agricultural crop and, at the same time, preventing the development of pesticide resistance is a major challenge in crop protection. Understanding how farming practices and environmental factors interact with pest characteristics to influence the spread of resistance is a difficult and complex task. It is extremely challenging to investigate such interactions experimentally at realistic spatial and temporal scales. Mathematical modelling and computer simulation have, therefore, been used to analyse resistance evolution and to evaluate potential resistance management tactics. Of the many modelling approaches available, individual-based modelling of a pest population offers most flexibility to include and analyse numerous factors and their interactions. Here, a pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus) population was modelled as an aggregate of individual insects inhabiting a spatially heterogeneous landscape. The development of the pest and host crop (oilseed rape) was driven by climatic variables. The agricultural land of the landscape was managed by farmers applying a specific rotation and crop protection strategy. The evolution of a single resistance allele to the pyrethroid lambda cyhalothrin was analysed for different combinations of crop management practices and for a recessive, intermediate and dominant resistance allele. While the spread of a recessive resistance allele was severely constrained, intermediate or dominant resistance alleles showed a similar response to the management regime imposed. Calendar treatments applied irrespective of pest density accelerated the development of resistance compared to ones applied in response to prescribed pest density thresholds. A greater proportion of spring-sown oilseed rape was also found to increase the speed of resistance as it increased the period of insecticide exposure. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and power of an individual-based model to simulate how farming

  5. An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Stratonovitch

    Full Text Available Preventing a pest population from damaging an agricultural crop and, at the same time, preventing the development of pesticide resistance is a major challenge in crop protection. Understanding how farming practices and environmental factors interact with pest characteristics to influence the spread of resistance is a difficult and complex task. It is extremely challenging to investigate such interactions experimentally at realistic spatial and temporal scales. Mathematical modelling and computer simulation have, therefore, been used to analyse resistance evolution and to evaluate potential resistance management tactics. Of the many modelling approaches available, individual-based modelling of a pest population offers most flexibility to include and analyse numerous factors and their interactions. Here, a pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus population was modelled as an aggregate of individual insects inhabiting a spatially heterogeneous landscape. The development of the pest and host crop (oilseed rape was driven by climatic variables. The agricultural land of the landscape was managed by farmers applying a specific rotation and crop protection strategy. The evolution of a single resistance allele to the pyrethroid lambda cyhalothrin was analysed for different combinations of crop management practices and for a recessive, intermediate and dominant resistance allele. While the spread of a recessive resistance allele was severely constrained, intermediate or dominant resistance alleles showed a similar response to the management regime imposed. Calendar treatments applied irrespective of pest density accelerated the development of resistance compared to ones applied in response to prescribed pest density thresholds. A greater proportion of spring-sown oilseed rape was also found to increase the speed of resistance as it increased the period of insecticide exposure. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and power of an individual-based model to

  6. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  7. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  8. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardstaff Joanne L

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles. The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to

  9. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

    2012-06-27

    The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such

  10. Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

    2013-10-01

    Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. A system dynamics model of clinical decision thresholds for the detection of developmental-behavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Christopher Sheldrick

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical decision-making has been conceptualized as a sequence of two separate processes: assessment of patients’ functioning and application of a decision threshold to determine whether the evidence is sufficient to justify a given decision. A range of factors, including use of evidence-based screening instruments, has the potential to influence either or both processes. However, implementation studies seldom specify or assess the mechanism by which screening is hypothesized to influence clinical decision-making, thus limiting their ability to address unexpected findings regarding clinicians’ behavior. Building on prior theory and empirical evidence, we created a system dynamics (SD model of how physicians’ clinical decisions are influenced by their assessments of patients and by factors that may influence decision thresholds, such as knowledge of past patient outcomes. Using developmental-behavioral disorders as a case example, we then explore how referral decisions may be influenced by changes in context. Specifically, we compare predictions from the SD model to published implementation trials of evidence-based screening to understand physicians’ management of positive screening results and changes in referral rates. We also conduct virtual experiments regarding the influence of a variety of interventions that may influence physicians’ thresholds, including improved access to co-located mental health care and improved feedback systems regarding patient outcomes. Results Results of the SD model were consistent with recent implementation trials. For example, the SD model suggests that if screening improves physicians’ accuracy of assessment without also influencing decision thresholds, then a significant proportion of children with positive screens will not be referred and the effect of screening implementation on referral rates will be modest—results that are consistent with a large proportion of published

  12. Modeling DPOAE input/output function compression: comparisons with hearing thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagat, Shaum P

    2014-09-01

    Basilar membrane input/output (I/O) functions in mammalian animal models are characterized by linear and compressed segments when measured near the location corresponding to the characteristic frequency. A method of studying basilar membrane compression indirectly in humans involves measuring distortion-product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) I/O functions. Previous research has linked compression estimates from behavioral growth-of-masking functions to hearing thresholds. The aim of this study was to compare compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions and hearing thresholds at 1 and 2 kHz. A prospective correlational research design was performed. The relationship between DPOAE I/O function compression estimates and hearing thresholds was evaluated with Pearson product-moment correlations. Normal-hearing adults (n = 16) aged 22-42 yr were recruited. DPOAE I/O functions (L₂ = 45-70 dB SPL) and two-interval forced-choice hearing thresholds were measured in normal-hearing adults. A three-segment linear regression model applied to DPOAE I/O functions supplied estimates of compression thresholds, defined as breakpoints between linear and compressed segments and the slopes of the compressed segments. Pearson product-moment correlations between DPOAE compression estimates and hearing thresholds were evaluated. A high correlation between DPOAE compression thresholds and hearing thresholds was observed at 2 kHz, but not at 1 kHz. Compression slopes also correlated highly with hearing thresholds only at 2 kHz. The derivation of cochlear compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions provides a means to characterize basilar membrane mechanics in humans and elucidates the role of compression in tone detection in the 1-2 kHz frequency range. American Academy of Audiology.

  13. Landscape composition creates a threshold influencing Lesser Prairie-Chicken population resilience to extreme drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James C.

    2016-01-01

    Habitat loss and degradation compound the effects of climate change on wildlife, yet responses to climate and land cover change are often quantified independently. The interaction between climate and land cover change could be intensified in the Great Plains region where grasslands are being converted to row-crop agriculture concurrent with increased frequency of extreme drought events. We quantified the combined effects of land cover and climate change on a species of conservation concern in the Great Plains, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus  ). We combined extreme drought events and land cover change with lek count surveys in a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify changes in abundance of male Lesser Prairie-Chickens from 1978 to 2014 in Kansas, the core of their species range. Our estimates of abundance indicate a gradually decreasing population through 2010 corresponding to drought events and reduced grassland areas. Decreases in Lesser Prairie-Chicken abundance were greatest in areas with increasing row-crop to grassland land cover ratio during extreme drought events, and decreased grassland reduces the resilience of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations to extreme drought events. A threshold exists for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in response to the gradient of cropland:grassland land cover. When moving across the gradient of grassland to cropland, abundance initially increased in response to more cropland on the landscape, but declined in response to more cropland after the threshold (δ=0.096, or 9.6% cropland). Preservation of intact grasslands and continued implementation of initiatives to revert cropland to grassland should increase Lesser Prairie-Chicken resilience to extreme drought events due to climate change.

  14. Lowered threshold energy for femtosecond laser induced optical breakdown in a water based eye model by aberration correction with adaptive optics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Anja; Géneaux, Romain; Günther, Axel; Krüger, Alexander; Ripken, Tammo

    2013-06-01

    In femtosecond laser ophthalmic surgery tissue dissection is achieved by photodisruption based on laser induced optical breakdown. In order to minimize collateral damage to the eye laser surgery systems should be optimized towards the lowest possible energy threshold for photodisruption. However, optical aberrations of the eye and the laser system distort the irradiance distribution from an ideal profile which causes a rise in breakdown threshold energy even if great care is taken to minimize the aberrations of the system during design and alignment. In this study we used a water chamber with an achromatic focusing lens and a scattering sample as eye model and determined breakdown threshold in single pulse plasma transmission loss measurements. Due to aberrations, the precise lower limit for breakdown threshold irradiance in water is still unknown. Here we show that the threshold energy can be substantially reduced when using adaptive optics to improve the irradiance distribution by spatial beam shaping. We found that for initial aberrations with a root-mean-square wave front error of only one third of the wavelength the threshold energy can still be reduced by a factor of three if the aberrations are corrected to the diffraction limit by adaptive optics. The transmitted pulse energy is reduced by 17% at twice the threshold. Furthermore, the gas bubble motions after breakdown for pulse trains at 5 kilohertz repetition rate show a more transverse direction in the corrected case compared to the more spherical distribution without correction. Our results demonstrate how both applied and transmitted pulse energy could be reduced during ophthalmic surgery when correcting for aberrations. As a consequence, the risk of retinal damage by transmitted energy and the extent of collateral damage to the focal volume could be minimized accordingly when using adaptive optics in fs-laser surgery.

  15. Constructing financial network based on PMFG and threshold method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Chun-Xiao; Song, Fu-Tie

    2018-04-01

    Based on planar maximally filtered graph (PMFG) and threshold method, we introduced a correlation-based network named PMFG-based threshold network (PTN). We studied the community structure of PTN and applied ISOMAP algorithm to represent PTN in low-dimensional Euclidean space. The results show that the community corresponds well to the cluster in the Euclidean space. Further, we studied the dynamics of the community structure and constructed the normalized mutual information (NMI) matrix. Based on the real data in the market, we found that the volatility of the market can lead to dramatic changes in the community structure, and the structure is more stable during the financial crisis.

  16. The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

  17. Threshold corrections and gauge symmetry in twisted superstring models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    Threshold corrections to the running of gauge couplings are calculated for superstring models with free complex world sheet fermions. For two N=1 SU(2)xU(1) 5 models, the threshold corrections lead to a small increase in the unification scale. Examples are given to illustrate how a given particle spectrum can be described by models with different boundary conditions on the internal fermions. We also discuss how complex twisted fermions can enhance the symmetry group of an N=4, SU(3)xU(1)xU(1) model to the gauge group SU(3)xSU(2)xU(1). It is then shown how a mixing angle analogous to the Weinberg angle depends on the boundary conditions of the internal fermions

  18. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

  19. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

    2015-01-01

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

  20. Threshold secret sharing scheme based on phase-shifting interferometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xiaopeng; Shi, Zhengang; Wen, Wei

    2016-11-01

    We propose a new method for secret image sharing with the (3,N) threshold scheme based on phase-shifting interferometry. The secret image, which is multiplied with an encryption key in advance, is first encrypted by using Fourier transformation. Then, the encoded image is shared into N shadow images based on the recording principle of phase-shifting interferometry. Based on the reconstruction principle of phase-shifting interferometry, any three or more shadow images can retrieve the secret image, while any two or fewer shadow images cannot obtain any information of the secret image. Thus, a (3,N) threshold secret sharing scheme can be implemented. Compared with our previously reported method, the algorithm of this paper is suited for not only a binary image but also a gray-scale image. Moreover, the proposed algorithm can obtain a larger threshold value t. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.

  1. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

  2. When is rational to order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment: the threshold model as an explanation of practice variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; van den Ende, Jef; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Pauker, Stephen G

    2015-05-01

    The threshold model represents an important advance in the field of medical decision-making. It is a linchpin between evidence (which exists on the continuum of credibility) and decision-making (which is a categorical exercise - we decide to act or not act). The threshold concept is closely related to the question of rational decision-making. When should the physician act, that is order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment? The threshold model embodies the decision theoretic rationality that says the most rational decision is to prescribe treatment when the expected treatment benefit outweighs its expected harms. However, the well-documented large variation in the way physicians order diagnostic tests or decide to administer treatments is consistent with a notion that physicians' individual action thresholds vary. We present a narrative review summarizing the existing literature on physicians' use of a threshold strategy for decision-making. We found that the observed variation in decision action thresholds is partially due to the way people integrate benefits and harms. That is, explanation of variation in clinical practice can be reduced to a consideration of thresholds. Limited evidence suggests that non-expected utility threshold (non-EUT) models, such as regret-based and dual-processing models, may explain current medical practice better. However, inclusion of costs and recognition of risk attitudes towards uncertain treatment effects and comorbidities may improve the explanatory and predictive value of the EUT-based threshold models. The decision when to act is closely related to the question of rational choice. We conclude that the medical community has not yet fully defined criteria for rational clinical decision-making. The traditional notion of rationality rooted in EUT may need to be supplemented by reflective rationality, which strives to integrate all aspects of medical practice - medical, humanistic and socio-economic - within a coherent

  3. Phase-change memory: A continuous multilevel compact model of subthreshold conduction and threshold switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigot, Corentin; Gilibert, Fabien; Reyboz, Marina; Bocquet, Marc; Zuliani, Paola; Portal, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    Phase-change memory (PCM) compact modeling of the threshold switching based on a thermal runaway in Poole–Frenkel conduction is proposed. Although this approach is often used in physical models, this is the first time it is implemented in a compact model. The model accuracy is validated by a good correlation between simulations and experimental data collected on a PCM cell embedded in a 90 nm technology. A wide range of intermediate states is measured and accurately modeled with a single set of parameters, allowing multilevel programing. A good convergence is exhibited even in snapback simulation owing to this fully continuous approach. Moreover, threshold properties extraction indicates a thermally enhanced switching, which validates the basic hypothesis of the model. Finally, it is shown that this model is compliant with a new drift-resilient cell-state metric. Once enriched with a phase transition module, this compact model is ready to be implemented in circuit simulators.

  4. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling Soil Quality Thresholds to Ecosystem Recovery at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garten Jr., C.T.

    2004-03-08

    The objective of this research was to use a simple model of soil C and N dynamics to predict nutrient thresholds to ecosystem recovery on degraded soils at Fort Benning, Georgia, in the southeastern USA. The model calculates aboveground and belowground biomass, soil C inputs and dynamics, soil N stocks and availability, and plant N requirements. A threshold is crossed when predicted soil N supplies fall short of predicted N required to sustain biomass accrual at a specified recovery rate. Four factors were important to development of thresholds to recovery: (1) initial amounts of aboveground biomass, (2) initial soil C stocks (i.e., soil quality), (3) relative recovery rates of biomass, and (4) soil sand content. Thresholds to ecosystem recovery predicted by the model should not be interpreted independent of a specified recovery rate. Initial soil C stocks influenced the predicted patterns of recovery by both old field and forest ecosystems. Forests and old fields on soils with varying sand content had different predicted thresholds to recovery. Soil C stocks at barren sites on Fort Benning generally lie below predicted thresholds to 100% recovery of desired future ecosystem conditions defined on the basis of aboveground biomass (18000 versus 360 g m{sup -2} for forests and old fields, respectively). Calculations with the model indicated that reestablishment of vegetation on barren sites to a level below the desired future condition is possible at recovery rates used in the model, but the time to 100% recovery of desired future conditions, without crossing a nutrient threshold, is prolonged by a reduced rate of forest growth. Predicted thresholds to ecosystem recovery were less on soils with more than 70% sand content. The lower thresholds for old field and forest recovery on more sandy soils are apparently due to higher relative rates of net soil N mineralization in more sandy soils. Calculations with the model indicate that a combination of desired future

  6. Diagnostic thresholds for ambulatory blood pressure moving lower: a review based on a meta-analysis-clinical implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, T.W.; Kikuya, M.; Thijs, L.

    2008-01-01

    Upper limits of normal ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) have been a matter of debate in recent years. Current diagnostic thresholds for ABP rely mainly on statistical parameters derived from reference populations. Recent findings from the International Database of Ambulatory Blood Pressure...... in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome (IDACO) provide outcome-driven thresholds for ABP. Rounded systolic/diastolic thresholds for optimal ABP were found to be 115/75 mm Hg for 24 hours, 120/80 mm Hg for daytime, and 100/65 mm Hg for nighttime. The corresponding rounded thresholds for normal ABP were 125...... database is therefore being updated with additional population cohorts to enable the construction of multifactorial risk score charts, which also include ABP Udgivelsesdato: 2008/5...

  7. Development of a paediatric population-based model of the pharmacokinetics of rivaroxaban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willmann, Stefan; Becker, Corina; Burghaus, Rolf; Coboeken, Katrin; Edginton, Andrea; Lippert, Jörg; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Thelen, Kirstin; Mück, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Venous thromboembolism has been increasingly recognised as a clinical problem in the paediatric population. Guideline recommendations for antithrombotic therapy in paediatric patients are based mainly on extrapolation from adult clinical trial data, owing to the limited number of clinical trials in paediatric populations. The oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban has been approved in adult patients for several thromboembolic disorders, and its well-defined pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics and efficacy and safety profiles in adults warrant further investigation of this agent in the paediatric population. The objective of this study was to develop and qualify a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for rivaroxaban doses of 10 and 20 mg in adults and to scale this model to the paediatric population (0-18 years) to inform the dosing regimen for a clinical study of rivaroxaban in paediatric patients. Experimental data sets from phase I studies supported the development and qualification of an adult PBPK model. This adult PBPK model was then scaled to the paediatric population by including anthropometric and physiological information, age-dependent clearance and age-dependent protein binding. The pharmacokinetic properties of rivaroxaban in virtual populations of children were simulated for two body weight-related dosing regimens equivalent to 10 and 20 mg once daily in adults. The quality of the model was judged by means of a visual predictive check. Subsequently, paediatric simulations of the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC), maximum (peak) plasma drug concentration (C max) and concentration in plasma after 24 h (C 24h) were compared with the adult reference simulations. Simulations for AUC, C max and C 24h throughout the investigated age range largely overlapped with values obtained for the corresponding dose in the adult reference simulation for both body weight-related dosing regimens. However

  8. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

    2017-05-01

    Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Norm based Threshold Selection for Fault Detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rank, Mike Lind; Niemann, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The design of fault detectors for fault detection and isolation (FDI) in dynamic systems is considered from a norm based point of view. An analysis of norm based threshold selection is given based on different formulations of FDI problems. Both the nominal FDI problem as well as the uncertain FDI...... problem are considered. Based on this analysis, a performance index based on norms of the involved transfer functions is given. The performance index allows us also to optimize the structure of the fault detection filter directly...

  10. Threshold dynamics and ergodicity of an SIRS epidemic model with Markovian switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Liu, Shengqiang; Cui, Jing'an

    2017-12-01

    This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic reproduction number R0 is established: the disease can be eradicated almost surely if R0 disease persists almost surely if R0 > 1. The existing method for analyzing ergodic behavior of population systems has been generalized. The modified method weakens the required conditions and has no limitations for both the number of environmental regimes and the dimension of the considered system. When R0 > 1, the existence of a stationary probability measure is obtained. Furthermore, with the modified method, the global attractivity of the Ω-limit set of the system and the convergence in total variation to the stationary measure are both demonstrated under a mild extra condition.

  11. The dynamic influence of human resources on evidence-based intervention sustainability and population outcomes: an agent-based modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M

    2018-06-05

    Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on

  12. [Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

    2016-07-12

    To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

  13. Poisson versus threshold models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in US Holsteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D; Bates, D M; Perez-Cabal, M A; Rosa, G J M; Chang, Y M

    2009-10-01

    Typically, clinical mastitis is coded as the presence or absence of disease in a given lactation, and records are analyzed with either linear models or binary threshold models. Because the presence of mastitis may include cows with multiple episodes, there is a loss of information when counts are treated as binary responses. Poisson models are appropriated for random variables measured as the number of events, and although these models are used extensively in studying the epidemiology of mastitis, they have rarely been used for studying the genetic aspects of mastitis. Ordinal threshold models are pertinent for ordered categorical responses; although one can hypothesize that the number of clinical mastitis episodes per animal reflects a continuous underlying increase in mastitis susceptibility, these models have rarely been used in genetic analysis of mastitis. The objective of this study was to compare probit, Poisson, and ordinal threshold models for the genetic evaluation of US Holstein sires for clinical mastitis. Mastitis was measured as a binary trait or as the number of mastitis cases. Data from 44,908 first-parity cows recorded in on-farm herd management software were gathered, edited, and processed for the present study. The cows were daughters of 1,861 sires, distributed over 94 herds. Predictive ability was assessed via a 5-fold cross-validation using 2 loss functions: mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end point and a cost difference function. The heritability estimates were 0.061 for mastitis measured as a binary trait in the probit model and 0.085 and 0.132 for the number of mastitis cases in the ordinal threshold and Poisson models, respectively; because of scale differences, only the probit and ordinal threshold models are directly comparable. Among healthy animals, MSEP was smallest for the probit model, and the cost function was smallest for the ordinal threshold model. Among diseased animals, MSEP and the cost function were smallest

  14. Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

  15. Stochastic Threshold Exponential (TE) Model for Hematopoietic Tissue Reconstitution Deficit after Radiation Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, B R; Potter, C A

    2014-07-01

    Whole-body exposure to large radiation doses can cause severe loss of hematopoietic tissue cells and threaten life if the lost cells are not replaced in a timely manner through natural repopulation (a homeostatic mechanism). Repopulation to the baseline level N 0 is called reconstitution and a reconstitution deficit (repopulation shortfall) can occur in a dose-related and organ-specific manner. Scott et al. (2013) previously introduced a deterministic version of a threshold exponential (TE) model of tissue-reconstitution deficit at a given follow-up time that was applied to bone marrow and spleen cellularity (number of constituent cells) data obtained 6 weeks after whole-body gamma-ray exposure of female C.B-17 mice. In this paper a more realistic, stochastic version of the TE model is provided that allows radiation response to vary between different individuals. The Stochastic TE model is applied to post gamma-ray-exposure cellularity data previously reported and also to more limited X-ray cellularity data for whole-body irradiated female C.B-17 mice. Results indicate that the population average threshold for a tissue reconstitution deficit appears to be similar for bone marrow and spleen and for 320-kV-spectrum X-rays and Cs-137 gamma rays. This means that 320-kV spectrum X-rays could successfully be used in conducting such studies.

  16. Beyond dysfunction and threshold-based classification: a multidimensional model of personality disorder diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornstein, Robert F; Huprich, Steven K

    2011-06-01

    An alternative dimensional model of personality disorder (PD) diagnosis that addresses several difficulties inherent in the current DSM conceptualization of PDs (excessive PD overlap and comorbidity, use of arbitrary thresholds to distinguish normal from pathological personality functioning, failure to capture variations in the adaptative value of PD symptoms, and inattention to the impact of situational influences on PD-related behaviors) is outlined. The model uses a set of diagnostician-friendly strategies to render PD diagnosis in three steps: (1) the diagnostician assigns every patient a single dimensional rating of overall level of personality dysfunction on a 50-point continuum; (2) the diagnostician assigns separate intensity and impairment ratings for each PD dimension (e.g., narcissism, avoidance, dependency); and (3) the diagnostician lists any personality traits-including PD-related traits-that enhance adaptation and functioning (e.g., histrionic theatricality, obsessive attention to detail). Advantages of the proposed model for clinicians and clinical researchers are discussed.

  17. Clinical multiple sclerosis occurs at one end of a spectrum of CNS pathology: a modified threshold liability model leads to new ways of thinking about the cause of clinical multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haegert, David G

    2005-01-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait, the causes of which are elusive. A threshold liability model influences thinking about the causes of this disorder. According to this model, a population has a normal distribution of genetic liability to MS. In addition, a threshold exists, so that MS begins when an individual's liability exceeds the MS threshold; environmental and other causative factors may increase or decrease an individual's MS liability. It is argued here, however, that this model is misleading, as it is based on the incorrect assumption that MS is a disorder that one either has or does not have. This paper hypothesizes, instead, that patients with a diagnosis of MS share identical CNS pathology, termed MS pathology, with some individuals who have a diagnosis of possible MS and with some apparently healthy individuals, who may never have a diagnosis of MS. In order to accommodate this hypothesis, the current threshold liability model is modified as follows. (1) In addition to a normal distribution of MS liability within a population, a spectrum of MS pathology occurs in some who have a high MS liability. (2) A clinical MS threshold exists at a point on this liability distribution, where the burden and distribution of MS pathology permits a diagnosis of clinical MS. (3) Additional thresholds exist that correspond to a lower MS liability and a lesser burden of MS pathology than occur at the clinical MS threshold. This modified threshold model leads to the postulate that causes act at various time points to increase MS liability and induce MS pathology. The accumulation of MS pathology sometimes leads to a diagnosis of clinical MS. One implication of this model is that the MS pathology in clinical MS and in some with possible MS differs only in the extent but not in the type of CNS injury. Thus, it may be possible to obtain insight into the causative environmental factors that increase MS liability and induce MS pathology by focusing on patients who

  18. Threshold Games and Cooperation on Multiplayer Graphs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaare B Mikkelsen

    Full Text Available The study investigates the effect on cooperation in multiplayer games, when the population from which all individuals are drawn is structured-i.e. when a given individual is only competing with a small subset of the entire population.To optimize the focus on multiplayer effects, a class of games were chosen for which the payoff depends nonlinearly on the number of cooperators-this ensures that the game cannot be represented as a sum of pair-wise interactions, and increases the likelihood of observing behaviour different from that seen in two-player games. The chosen class of games are named "threshold games", and are defined by a threshold, M > 0, which describes the minimal number of cooperators in a given match required for all the participants to receive a benefit. The model was studied primarily through numerical simulations of large populations of individuals, each with interaction neighbourhoods described by various classes of networks.When comparing the level of cooperation in a structured population to the mean-field model, we find that most types of structure lead to a decrease in cooperation. This is both interesting and novel, simply due to the generality and breadth of relevance of the model-it is likely that any model with similar payoff structure exhibits related behaviour. More importantly, we find that the details of the behaviour depends to a large extent on the size of the immediate neighbourhoods of the individuals, as dictated by the network structure. In effect, the players behave as if they are part of a much smaller, fully mixed, population, which we suggest an expression for.

  19. Critical mutation rate has an exponential dependence on population size in haploid and diploid populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Aston

    Full Text Available Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the

  20. Linear non-threshold (LNT) radiation hazards model and its evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min Rui

    2011-01-01

    In order to introduce linear non-threshold (LNT) model used in study on the dose effect of radiation hazards and to evaluate its application, the analysis of comprehensive literatures was made. The results show that LNT model is more suitable to describe the biological effects in accuracy for high dose than that for low dose. Repairable-conditionally repairable model of cell radiation effects can be well taken into account on cell survival curve in the all conditions of high, medium and low absorbed dose range. There are still many uncertainties in assessment model of effective dose of internal radiation based on the LNT assumptions and individual mean organ equivalent, and it is necessary to establish gender-specific voxel human model, taking gender differences into account. From above, the advantages and disadvantages of various models coexist. Before the setting of the new theory and new model, LNT model is still the most scientific attitude. (author)

  1. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Chemostat Model with Two Nutrients and One Microorganism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new stochastic chemostat model with two substitutable nutrients and one microorganism is proposed and investigated. Firstly, for the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is obtained by analyzing the stability of the equilibria. Then, for the stochastic model, the threshold of the stochastic chemostat for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is explored. Difference of the threshold of the deterministic model and the stochastic model shows that a large stochastic disturbance can affect the persistence of the microorganism and is harmful to the cultivation of the microorganism. To illustrate this phenomenon, we give some computer simulations with different intensity of stochastic noise disturbance.

  2. Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

    2017-11-01

    Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality

  3. Development of a landlside EWS based on rainfall thresholds for Tuscany Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Battistini, Alessandro; Rossi, Guglielmo; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    We present the set-up of a landslide EWS based on rainfall thresholds for the Tuscany region (central Italy), that shows a heterogeneous distribution of reliefs and precipitation. The work started with the definition of a single set of thresholds for the whole region, but it resulted unsuitable for EWS purposes, because of the heterogeneity of the Tuscan territory and non-repeatability of the analyses, that were affected by a high degree of subjectivity. To overcome this problem, the work started from the implementation of a software capable of objectively defining the rainfall thresholds, since some of the main issues of these thresholds are the subjectivity of the analysis and therefore their non-repeatability. This software, named MaCumBA, is largely automated and can analyze, in a short time, a high number of rainfall events to define several parameters of the threshold, such as the intensity (I) and the duration (D) of the rainfall event, the no-rain time gap (NRG: how many hours without rain are needed to consider two events as separated) and the equation describing the threshold. The possibility of quickly perform several analyses lead to the decision to divide the territory in 25 homogeneous areas (named alert zones, AZ), so as a single threshold for each AZ could be defined. For the definition of the thresholds two independent datasets (of joint rainfall-landslide occurrences) have been used: a calibration dataset (data from 2000 to 2007) and a validation dataset (2008-2009). Once the thresholds were defined, a WebGIS-based EWS has been implemented. In this system it is possible to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h; forecasting data are collected from LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts. The EWS works on the basis of the threshold parameters defined by MaCumBA (I, D, NRG). An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the Web

  4. An energy-based body temperature threshold between torpor and normothermia for small mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Craig K R

    2007-01-01

    Field studies of use of torpor by heterothermic endotherms suffer from the lack of a standardized threshold differentiating torpid body temperatures (T(b)) from normothermic T(b)'s. This threshold can be more readily observed if metabolic rate (MR) is measured in the laboratory. I digitized figures from the literature that depicted simultaneous traces of MR and T(b) from 32 respirometry runs for 14 mammal species. For each graph, I quantified the T(b) measured when MR first began to drop at the onset of torpor (T(b-onset)). I used a general linear model to quantify the effect of ambient temperature (T(a)) and body mass (BM) on T(b-onset). For species lighter than 70 g, the model was highly significant and was described by the equation Tb-onset=(0.055+/-0.014)BM+(0.071+/-0.031)Ta+(31.823+/-0.740). To be conservative, I recommend use of these model parameters minus 1 standard error, which modifies the equation to Tb-onset-1 SE=(0.041)BM+(0.040)Ta+31.083. This approach provides a standardized threshold for differentiating torpor from normothermia that is based on use of energy, the actual currency of interest for studies of torpor in the wild. Few laboratory studies have presented the time-course data required to quantify T(b-onset), so more data are needed to validate this relationship.

  5. Dynamics and Biocontrol: The Indirect Effects of a Predator Population on a Host-Vector Disease Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengyan Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A model of the interactions among a host population, an insect-vector population, which transmits virus from hosts to hosts, and a vector predator population is proposed based on virus-host, host-vector, and prey (vector-enemy theories. The model is investigated to explore the indirect effect of natural enemies on host-virus dynamics by reducing the vector densities, which shows the basic reproduction numbers R01 (without predators and R02 (with predators that provide threshold conditions on determining the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease in a host population. When the model is absent from predator, the disease is persistent if R01>1; in such a case, by introducing predators of a vector, then the insect-transmitted disease will be controlled if R02<1. From the point of biological control, these results show that an additional predator population of the vector may suppress the spread of vector-borne diseases. In addition, there exist limit cycles with persistence of the disease or without disease in presence of predators. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to support analytical results.

  6. A community model of ciliate Tetrahymena and bacteria E. coli. Part 1: Individual-based models of Tetrahymena and E. coli populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaworska, J.S.; Hallam, T.G.; Schultz, T.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1996-03-01

    The dynamics of a microbial community consisting of a eucaryotic ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis and procaryotic. Escherichia coli in a batch culture is explored by employing an individual-based approach. In this portion of the article, Part 1, population models are presented. Because both models are individual-based, models of individual organisms are developed prior to construction of the population models. The individual models use an energy budget method in which growth depends on energy gain from feeding and energy sinks such as maintenance and reproduction. These models are not limited by simplifying assumptions about constant yield, constant energy sinks and Monod growth kinetics as are traditional models of microbial organisms. Population models are generated from individual models by creating distinct individual types and assigning to each type the number of real individuals they represent. A population is a compilation of individual types that vary in a phase of cell cycle and physiological parameters such as filtering rate for ciliates and maximum anabolic rate for bacteria. An advantage of the developed models is that they realistically describe the growth of the individual cells feeding on resource which varies in density and composition. Part 2, the core of the project, integrates models into a dynamic microbial community and provides model analysis based upon available data.

  7. Functional form comparison between the population and the individual Poisson based TCP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, C.; Stavreva, N.; Stavrev, P.; Carlone, M.; Fallone, B.G.

    2007-01-01

    In this work, the functional form similarity between the individual and fundamental population TCP models is investigated. Using the fact that both models can be expressed in terms of the geometric parameters γ 50 and D 50 , we show that they have almost identical functional form for values of γ 50 ≥1. The conceptual inadequacy of applying an individual model to clinical data is also discussed. A general individual response TCP expression is given, parameterized by D f and γ f - the dose corresponding to a control level of f, and the normalized slope at that point. It is shown that the dose-response may be interpreted as an individual response only if γ 50 is sufficiently high. Based on the functional form equivalency between the individual and the population TCP models, we discuss the possibility of applying the individual TCP model for the case of heterogeneous irradiations. Due to the fact that the fundamental population TCP model is derived for homogeneous irradiations only, we propose the use of the EUD, given by the generalized mean dose, when the fundamental population TCP model is used to fit clinical data. (author)

  8. The threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Bing; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong; Shi, Qihong; Li, Dungang

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present the threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, we find that noise can suppress the disease outbreak. Numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  9. Improvement of Management of Rhagoletis Cerasi in Bosnia and Herzegovina Based on a Phenological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nježić Branimir

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available European cherry fruit fly (Rhagoletis cerasi is the key pest of sweet and sour cherry throughout Europe. Pest management is usually based on pesticide application. The key of successful management is knowing the proper time of pesticide application, based on the phenological model. To develop a phenological model, a local population of the pest from the northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina was studied. First adult appearance and population densities were monitored by yellow sticky traps. Soil and air temperatures were compared at two thermal thresholds, 5 °C and 7 °C. Air temperature was applied in the model since it is more suitable for farmers and is related to soil temperature. Both thermal thresholds can be used. The first adult flies were captured after 435 degree-days (dd and the first cumulative 5% of the catch after 605 dd. These two times should be considered for time of application of pesticides. Regarding time for first egg hatch, the first larva burrowed into fruits at 730 dd. Cultivars that can be harvested beginning on the 730 dd calculate from 1 March are considered to have low risk of cherry fruit fly damage.

  10. Electrocardiogram signal denoising based on a new improved wavelet thresholding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqiang; Xu, Zhijun

    2016-08-01

    Good quality electrocardiogram (ECG) is utilized by physicians for the interpretation and identification of physiological and pathological phenomena. In general, ECG signals may mix various noises such as baseline wander, power line interference, and electromagnetic interference in gathering and recording process. As ECG signals are non-stationary physiological signals, wavelet transform is investigated to be an effective tool to discard noises from corrupted signals. A new compromising threshold function called sigmoid function-based thresholding scheme is adopted in processing ECG signals. Compared with other methods such as hard/soft thresholding or other existing thresholding functions, the new algorithm has many advantages in the noise reduction of ECG signals. It perfectly overcomes the discontinuity at ±T of hard thresholding and reduces the fixed deviation of soft thresholding. The improved wavelet thresholding denoising can be proved to be more efficient than existing algorithms in ECG signal denoising. The signal to noise ratio, mean square error, and percent root mean square difference are calculated to verify the denoising performance as quantitative tools. The experimental results reveal that the waves including P, Q, R, and S waves of ECG signals after denoising coincide with the original ECG signals by employing the new proposed method.

  11. An investigation of the effect of load ratio on near-threshold fatigue crack propagation in a Ni-Base superalloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schooling, J.M.; Reed, P.A.S.

    1995-01-01

    The near-threshold fatigue crack growth behavior of Waspaloy has been investigated to elucidate important parameters relevant to the development of a modelling program for fatigue behavior in Ni-base superalloys. At low values of load-ratio, R, threshold stress intensity values are found to be highly sensitive to R. This behavior is rationalized in terms of roughness induced crack closure. At high load ratios there is less sensitivity to R, and stage II behavior appears to persist to threshold. The threshold stress intensity at high R-ratios is lower than that for closure corrected Stage I (low load ratio) threshold behavior, indicating the existence of two intrinsic threshold values. This difference appears to be due not only to crack branching and deflection in Stage I, but also to be intrinsic difference in resistance to threshold behavior in the two growth modes. (author)

  12. Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

    2013-11-01

    Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air temperature (°C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (°C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland

  13. A threshold-based fixed predictor for JPEG-LS image compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Lihua; Huang, Zhenghua; Yao, Shoukui

    2018-03-01

    In JPEG-LS, fixed predictor based on median edge detector (MED) only detect horizontal and vertical edges, and thus produces large prediction errors in the locality of diagonal edges. In this paper, we propose a threshold-based edge detection scheme for the fixed predictor. The proposed scheme can detect not only the horizontal and vertical edges, but also diagonal edges. For some certain thresholds, the proposed scheme can be simplified to other existing schemes. So, it can also be regarded as the integration of these existing schemes. For a suitable threshold, the accuracy of horizontal and vertical edges detection is higher than the existing median edge detection in JPEG-LS. Thus, the proposed fixed predictor outperforms the existing JPEG-LS predictors for all images tested, while the complexity of the overall algorithm is maintained at a similar level.

  14. A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. V. Martina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

  15. Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Katherine S.; Dose, Volker; Da Silva, David; Brown, Patrick H.; DeJong, Theodore M.

    2015-06-01

    Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the "chilling requirement" of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond ( Prunus dulcis), pistachio ( Pistacia vera), and walnut ( Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

  16. Computational modeling of interventions and protective thresholds to prevent disease transmission in deploying populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Colleen; Peace, Angela; Everett, Rebecca; Allegri, Buena; Garman, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

  17. Computational Modeling of Interventions and Protective Thresholds to Prevent Disease Transmission in Deploying Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colleen Burgess

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

  18. Generalizing a complex model for gully threshold identification in the Mediterranean environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torri, D.; Borselli, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Iovine, G.; Poesen, J.; Terranova, O.

    2012-04-01

    Among the physical processes leading to land degradation, soil erosion by water is the most important and gully erosion may contribute, at places, to 70% of the total soil loss. Nevertheless, gully erosion has often been neglected in water soil erosion modeling, whilst more prominence has been given to rill and interrill erosion. Both to facilitate the processing by agricultural machinery and to take advantage of all the arable land, gullies are commonly removed at each crop cycle, with significant soil losses due to the repeated excavation of the channel by the successive rainstorm. When the erosive forces of overland flow exceed the strength of the soil particles to detachment and displacement, water erosion occurs and usually a channel is formed. As runoff is proportional to the local catchment area, a relationship between local slope, S, and contributing area, A, is supposed to exists. A "geomorphologic threshold" scheme is therefore suitable to interpret the physical process of gully initiation: accordingly, a gully is formed when a hydraulic threshold for incision exceeds the resistance of the soil particles to detachment and transport. Similarly, it appears reasonable that a gully ends when there is a reduction of slope, or the concentrated flow meets more resistant soil-vegetation complexes. This study aims to predict the location of the beginning of gullies in the Mediterranean environment, based on an evaluation of S and A by means of a mathematical model. For the identification of the areas prone to gully erosion, the model employs two empirical thresholds relevant to the head (Thead) and to the end (Tend) of the gullies (of the type SA^ b>Thead, SA^ bsituations (usually after abandonment), and c) databases for cropland have been merged. Selected data have been examined and interpreted mathematically to assess a value to be taken as a constant for the exponent "b" of the above equation. Literature data on the problem of topological thresholds Tend are

  19. Threshold Research on Highway Length under Typical Landscape Patterns Based on Drivers’ Physiological Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The appropriately landscaped highway scenes may not only help improve road safety and comfort but also help protect ecological environment. Yet there is very little research data on highway length threshold with consideration of distinctive landscape patterns. Against this backdrop, the paper aims to quantitatively analyze highway landscape’s effect on driving behavior based on drivers’ physiological performance and quantify highway length thresholds under three typical landscape patterns, namely, “open,” “semiopen,” and “vertical” ones. The statistical analysis was based on data collected in a driving simulator and electrocardiograph. Specifically, vehicle-related data, ECG data, and supplemental subjective stress perception were collected. The study extracted two characteristic indices, lane deviation and LF/HF, and extrapolated the drivers’ U-shaped physiological response to landscape patterns. Models on highway length were built based on LF/HF’s variation trend with highway length. The results revealed that the theoretical highway length threshold tended to increase when the landscape pattern was switched to open, semiopen, and vertical ones. And the reliability and accuracy of the results were validated by questionnaires and field operational tests. Findings from this research will assist practitioners in taking active environmental countermeasures pertaining to different roadside landscape patterns.

  20. Modeling direction discrimination thresholds for yaw rotations around an earth-vertical axis for arbitrary motion profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyka, Florian; Giordano, Paolo Robuffo; Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Bülthoff, Heinrich H

    2012-07-01

    Understanding the dynamics of vestibular perception is important, for example, for improving the realism of motion simulation and virtual reality environments or for diagnosing patients suffering from vestibular problems. Previous research has found a dependence of direction discrimination thresholds for rotational motions on the period length (inverse frequency) of a transient (single cycle) sinusoidal acceleration stimulus. However, self-motion is seldom purely sinusoidal, and up to now, no models have been proposed that take into account non-sinusoidal stimuli for rotational motions. In this work, the influence of both the period length and the specific time course of an inertial stimulus is investigated. Thresholds for three acceleration profile shapes (triangular, sinusoidal, and trapezoidal) were measured for three period lengths (0.3, 1.4, and 6.7 s) in ten participants. A two-alternative forced-choice discrimination task was used where participants had to judge if a yaw rotation around an earth-vertical axis was leftward or rightward. The peak velocity of the stimulus was varied, and the threshold was defined as the stimulus yielding 75 % correct answers. In accordance with previous research, thresholds decreased with shortening period length (from ~2 deg/s for 6.7 s to ~0.8 deg/s for 0.3 s). The peak velocity was the determining factor for discrimination: Different profiles with the same period length have similar velocity thresholds. These measurements were used to fit a novel model based on a description of the firing rate of semi-circular canal neurons. In accordance with previous research, the estimates of the model parameters suggest that velocity storage does not influence perceptual thresholds.

  1. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  2. Improved bounds on the epidemic threshold of exact SIS models on complex networks

    KAUST Repository

    Ruhi, Navid Azizan; Thrampoulidis, Christos; Hassibi, Babak

    2017-01-01

    The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a 2n-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and, in particular, determining the threshold of epidemic spread quite challenging. It has been shown that the exact marginal probabilities of infection can be upper bounded by an n-dimensional linear time-invariant system, a consequence of which is that the Markov chain is “fast-mixing” when the LTI system is stable, i.e. when equation (where β is the infection rate per link, δ is the recovery rate, and λmax(A) is the largest eigenvalue of the network's adjacency matrix). This well-known threshold has been recently shown not to be tight in several cases, such as in a star network. In this paper, we provide tighter upper bounds on the exact marginal probabilities of infection, by also taking pairwise infection probabilities into account. Based on this improved bound, we derive tighter eigenvalue conditions that guarantee fast mixing (i.e., logarithmic mixing time) of the chain. We demonstrate the improvement of the threshold condition by comparing the new bound with the known one on various networks with various epidemic parameters.

  3. Improved bounds on the epidemic threshold of exact SIS models on complex networks

    KAUST Repository

    Ruhi, Navid Azizan

    2017-01-05

    The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a 2n-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and, in particular, determining the threshold of epidemic spread quite challenging. It has been shown that the exact marginal probabilities of infection can be upper bounded by an n-dimensional linear time-invariant system, a consequence of which is that the Markov chain is “fast-mixing” when the LTI system is stable, i.e. when equation (where β is the infection rate per link, δ is the recovery rate, and λmax(A) is the largest eigenvalue of the network\\'s adjacency matrix). This well-known threshold has been recently shown not to be tight in several cases, such as in a star network. In this paper, we provide tighter upper bounds on the exact marginal probabilities of infection, by also taking pairwise infection probabilities into account. Based on this improved bound, we derive tighter eigenvalue conditions that guarantee fast mixing (i.e., logarithmic mixing time) of the chain. We demonstrate the improvement of the threshold condition by comparing the new bound with the known one on various networks with various epidemic parameters.

  4. Threshold-Based Relay Selection for Detect-and-Forward Relaying in Cooperative Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Yijia

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies two-hop cooperative demodulate-and-forward relaying using multiple relays in wireless networks. A threshold based relay selection scheme is considered, in which the reliable relays are determined by comparing source-relay SNR to a threshold, and one of the reliable relays is selected by the destination based on relay-destination SNR. The exact bit error rate of this scheme is derived, and a simple threshold function is proposed. It is shown that the network achieves full diversity order ( under the proposed threshold, where is the number of relays in the network. Unlike some other full diversity achieving protocols in the literature, the requirement that the instantaneous/average SNRs of the source-relay links be known at the destination is eliminated using the appropriate SNR threshold.

  5. Gauge threshold corrections for local string models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conlon, Joseph P.

    2009-01-01

    We study gauge threshold corrections for local brane models embedded in a large compact space. A large bulk volume gives important contributions to the Konishi and super-Weyl anomalies and the effective field theory analysis implies the unification scale should be enhanced in a model-independent way from M s to RM s . For local D3/D3 models this result is supported by the explicit string computations. In this case the scale RM s comes from the necessity of global cancellation of RR tadpoles sourced by the local model. We also study D3/D7 models and discuss discrepancies with the effective field theory analysis. We comment on phenomenological implications for gauge coupling unification and for the GUT scale.

  6. Re-visiting Trichuris trichiura intensity thresholds based on anemia during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyorkos, Theresa W; Gilbert, Nicolas L; Larocque, Renée; Casapía, Martín; Montresor, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The intensity categories, or thresholds, currently used for Trichuris trichiura (ie. epg intensities of 1-999 (light); 1,000-9,999 epg (moderate), and ≥ 10,000 epg (heavy)) were developed in the 1980s, when there were little epidemiological data available on dose-response relationships. This study was undertaken to determine a threshold for T. trichiura-associated anemia in pregnant women and to describe the implications of this threshold in terms of the need for primary prevention and chemotherapeutic interventions. In Iquitos, Peru, 935 pregnant women were tested for T. trichiura infection in their second trimester of pregnancy; were given daily iron supplements throughout their pregnancy; and had their blood hemoglobin levels measured in their third trimester of pregnancy. Women in the highest two T. trichiura intensity quintiles (601-1632 epg and ≥ 1633 epg) had significantly lower mean hemoglobin concentrations than the lowest quintile (0-24 epg). They also had a statistically significantly higher risk of anemia, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.67 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.62) and 1.73 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.74), respectively. This analysis provides support for categorizing a T. trichiura infection ≥ 1,000 epg as 'moderate', as currently defined by the World Health Organization. Because this 'moderate' level of T. trichiura infection was found to be a significant risk factor for anemia in pregnant women, the intensity of Trichuris infection deemed to cause or aggravate anemia should no longer be restricted to the 'heavy' intensity category. It should now include both 'heavy' and 'moderate' intensities of Trichuris infection. Evidence-based deworming strategies targeting pregnant women or populations where anemia is of concern should be updated accordingly.

  7. Determination and validation of soil thresholds for cadmium based on food quality standard and health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Changfeng; Ma, Yibing; Li, Xiaogang; Zhang, Taolin; Wang, Xingxiang

    2018-04-01

    Cadmium (Cd) is an environmental toxicant with high rates of soil-plant transfer. It is essential to establish an accurate soil threshold for the implementation of soil management practices. This study takes root vegetable as an example to derive soil thresholds for Cd based on the food quality standard as well as health risk assessment using species sensitivity distribution (SSD). A soil type-specific bioconcentration factor (BCF, ratio of Cd concentration in plant to that in soil) generated from soil with a proper Cd concentration gradient was calculated and applied in the derivation of soil thresholds instead of a generic BCF value to minimize the uncertainty. The sensitivity variations of twelve root vegetable cultivars for accumulating soil Cd and the empirical soil-plant transfer model were investigated and developed in greenhouse experiments. After normalization, the hazardous concentrations from the fifth percentile of the distribution based on added Cd (HC5 add ) were calculated from the SSD curves fitted by Burr Type III distribution. The derived soil thresholds were presented as continuous or scenario criteria depending on the combination of soil pH and organic carbon content. The soil thresholds based on food quality standard were on average 0.7-fold of those based on health risk assessment, and were further validated to be reliable using independent data from field survey and published articles. The results suggested that deriving soil thresholds for Cd using SSD method is robust and also applicable to other crops as well as other trace elements that have the potential to cause health risk issues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Color-weak compensation using local affine isometry based on discrimination threshold matching

    OpenAIRE

    Mochizuki, Rika; Kojima, Takanori; Lenz, Reiner; Chao, Jinhui

    2015-01-01

    We develop algorithms for color-weak compensation and color-weak simulation based on Riemannian geometry models of color spaces. The objective function introduced measures the match of color discrimination thresholds of average normal observers and a color-weak observer. The developed matching process makes use of local affine maps between color spaces of color-normal and color-weak observers. The method can be used to generate displays of images that provide color-normal and color-weak obser...

  9. Effects of pump recycling technique on stimulated Brillouin scattering threshold: a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Asadi, H A; Al-Mansoori, M H; Ajiya, M; Hitam, S; Saripan, M I; Mahdi, M A

    2010-10-11

    We develop a theoretical model that can be used to predict stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) threshold in optical fibers that arises through the effect of Brillouin pump recycling technique. Obtained simulation results from our model are in close agreement with our experimental results. The developed model utilizes single mode optical fiber of different lengths as the Brillouin gain media. For 5-km long single mode fiber, the calculated threshold power for SBS is about 16 mW for conventional technique. This value is reduced to about 8 mW when the residual Brillouin pump is recycled at the end of the fiber. The decrement of SBS threshold is due to longer interaction lengths between Brillouin pump and Stokes wave.

  10. Pairing based threshold cryptography improving on Libert-Quisquater and Baek-Zheng

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Desmedt, Yvo; Lange, Tanja

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we apply techniques from secret sharing and threshold decryption to show how to properly design an ID-based threshold system in which one assumes no trust in any party. In our scheme: We avoid that any single machine ever knew the master secret s of the trusted authority (TA). Inste...

  11. Intervention thresholds for osteoporosis in men and women: A study based on data from Sweden

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Kanis (John); O. Johnell (Olof); A. Odén (Anders); F. Borgstrom (Frederik); H. Johansson (Helena); C.E.D. de Laet (Chris); B. Jönsson (Bengt)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe aim of this study was to determine the threshold of fracture probability at which interventions became cost-effective in men and women, based on data from Sweden. We modeled the effects of a treatment costing $500 per year given for 5 years that decreased the risk of all osteoporotic

  12. Normal Threshold Size of Stimuli in Children Using a Game-Based Visual Field Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanfang; Ali, Zaria; Subramani, Siddharth; Biswas, Susmito; Fenerty, Cecilia; Henson, David B; Aslam, Tariq

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this study was to demonstrate and explore the ability of novel game-based perimetry to establish normal visual field thresholds in children. One hundred and eighteen children (aged 8.0 ± 2.8 years old) with no history of visual field loss or significant medical history were recruited. Each child had one eye tested using a game-based visual field test 'Caspar's Castle' at four retinal locations 12.7° (N = 118) from fixation. Thresholds were established repeatedly using up/down staircase algorithms with stimuli of varying diameter (luminance 20 cd/m 2 , duration 200 ms, background luminance 10 cd/m 2 ). Relationships between threshold and age were determined along with measures of intra- and intersubject variability. The Game-based visual field test was able to establish threshold estimates in the full range of children tested. Threshold size reduced with increasing age in children. Intrasubject variability and intersubject variability were inversely related to age in children. Normal visual field thresholds were established for specific locations in children using a novel game-based visual field test. These could be used as a foundation for developing a game-based perimetry screening test for children.

  13. Finance-growth nexus: Insights from an application of threshold regression model to Malaysia's dual financial system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaa Alaabed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the growing converging views regarding the destabilizing and growth-halting impact of interest-based debt financial system. The views are as advocated by the followers of Keynes and Hyman Minsky and those of Islam. Islam discourages interest rate based debt financing as it considers it not very conducive to productive activities and human solidarity. Likewise, since the onset of the crisis of 2007/2008, calls by skeptics of mainstream capitalism have been renewed. The paper applies a threshold regression model to Malaysian data and finds that the relationship between growth and financial development is non-linear. A threshold is estimated, after which credit expansion negatively impacts GDP growth. While the post-threshold negative relationship is found to be statistically significant, the estimated positive relationship at lower levels of financial development is insignificant. The findings provide support to the above views and are hoped to guide monetary authorities to better growth-promoting policy-making.

  14. A population based statistical model for daily geometric variations in the thorax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szeto, Yenny Z.; Witte, Marnix G.; van Herk, Marcel; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2017-01-01

    To develop a population based statistical model of the systematic interfraction geometric variations between the planning CT and first treatment week of lung cancer patients for inclusion as uncertainty term in future probabilistic planning. Deformable image registrations between the planning CT and

  15. The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei; Jiang, Daqing

    2016-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the asymptotic properties of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the epidemic is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

  16. Fuzzy 2-partition entropy threshold selection based on Big Bang–Big Crunch Optimization algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baljit Singh Khehra

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The fuzzy 2-partition entropy approach has been widely used to select threshold value for image segmenting. This approach used two parameterized fuzzy membership functions to form a fuzzy 2-partition of the image. The optimal threshold is selected by searching an optimal combination of parameters of the membership functions such that the entropy of fuzzy 2-partition is maximized. In this paper, a new fuzzy 2-partition entropy thresholding approach based on the technology of the Big Bang–Big Crunch Optimization (BBBCO is proposed. The new proposed thresholding approach is called the BBBCO-based fuzzy 2-partition entropy thresholding algorithm. BBBCO is used to search an optimal combination of parameters of the membership functions for maximizing the entropy of fuzzy 2-partition. BBBCO is inspired by the theory of the evolution of the universe; namely the Big Bang and Big Crunch Theory. The proposed algorithm is tested on a number of standard test images. For comparison, three different algorithms included Genetic Algorithm (GA-based, Biogeography-based Optimization (BBO-based and recursive approaches are also implemented. From experimental results, it is observed that the performance of the proposed algorithm is more effective than GA-based, BBO-based and recursion-based approaches.

  17. Predicting the threshold of pulse-train electrical stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

    2004-04-01

    The incorporation of low levels of noise into an electrical stimulus has been shown to improve auditory thresholds in some human subjects (Zeng et al., 2000). In this paper, thresholds for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli are predicted utilizing a stochastic neural-behavioral model of ensemble fiber responses to bi-phasic stimuli. The neural refractory effect is described using a Markov model for a noise-free pulse-train stimulus and a closed-form solution for the steady-state neural response is provided. For noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli, a recursive method using the conditional probability is utilized to track the neural responses to each successive pulse. A neural spike count rule has been presented for both threshold and intensity discrimination under the assumption that auditory perception occurs via integration over a relatively long time period (Bruce et al., 1999). An alternative approach originates from the hypothesis of the multilook model (Viemeister and Wakefield, 1991), which argues that auditory perception is based on several shorter time integrations and may suggest an NofM model for prediction of pulse-train threshold. This motivates analyzing the neural response to each individual pulse within a pulse train, which is considered to be the brief look. A logarithmic rule is hypothesized for pulse-train threshold. Predictions from the multilook model are shown to match trends in psychophysical data for noise-free stimuli that are not always matched by the long-time integration rule. Theoretical predictions indicate that threshold decreases as noise variance increases. Theoretical models of the neural response to pulse-train stimuli not only reduce calculational overhead but also facilitate utilization of signal detection theory and are easily extended to multichannel psychophysical tasks.

  18. Determining color difference thresholds in denture base acrylic resin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Jiabao; Lin, Hong; Huang, Qingmei; Zheng, Gang

    2015-11-01

    In restorative prostheses, color is important, but the choice of color difference formula used to quantify color change in acrylic resins is not straightforward. The purpose of this in vitro study was to choose a color difference formula that best represented differences between the calculated color and the observed imperceptible to unacceptable color and to determine the corresponding perceptibility and acceptability threshold of color stability for denture base acrylic resins. A total of 291 acrylic resin denture base plates were fabricated and subjected to radiation tests from zero to 42 hours in accordance with ISO 7491:2000. Color was measured with a portable spectrophotometer, and color differences were calculated with 3 International Commission on Illumination (CIE) formulas: CIELab, CMC(1:1), and CIEDE2000. Thirty-four observers with no deficiencies in color perception participated in psychophysical perceptibility and acceptability assessments under controlled conditions in vitro. These 2 types of assessments were regressed to each observer by each formula to generate receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Areas under the curves (AUCs) were then calculated and analyzed to exclude observers with poor color discrimination. AUCs were subjected to 1-way ANOVA (α=.05) to deter the statistical significance of discriminability among the 3 formulas in terms of perceptibility and acceptability judgments. Student-Newman-Keuls tests (α=.05) were used for post hoc comparison. CMC(1:1) and CIEDE2000 formulas performed better for imperceptible to unacceptable color differences, with corresponding CMC(1:1) and CIEDE2000 values for perceptibility of 2.52 and 1.72, respectively, and acceptability thresholds of 6.21 and 4.08, respectively. Formulas CMC(1:1) and CIEDE2000 possess higher discriminability than that of CIELab in the assessment of perceptible color difference threshold of denture base acrylic resin. A statistically significant difference exists

  19. Modeling strong-field above-threshold ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundaram, B.; Armstrong, L. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Above-threshold ionization (ATI) by intense, short-pulse lasers is studied numerically, using the stretched hydrogen atom Hamiltonian. Within our model system, we isolate several mechanisms that contribute to the ATI process. These mechanisms, which involve both excited bound states and continuum states, all invoke intermediate, off-energy shell transitions. In particular, the importance of excited bound states and off-energy shell bound-free processes to the ionization mechanism are shown to relate to a simple physical criterion. These processes point to importance differences in the interpretation of ionization characteristics for short pulses from that for longer pulses. Our analysis concludes that although components of ATI admit of simple, few-state modeling, the ultimate synthesis points to a highly complex mechanism

  20. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    .8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  1. "Now I see it, now I don't": Determining Threshold Levels of Facial Emotion Recognition for Use in Patient Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Isabelle; Gfrörer, Regina I; Piguet, Olivier; Berres, Manfred; Monsch, Andreas U; Sollberger, Marc

    2015-08-01

    The importance of including measures of emotion processing, such as tests of facial emotion recognition (FER), as part of a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment is being increasingly recognized. In clinical settings, FER tests need to be sensitive, short, and easy to administer, given the limited time available and patient limitations. Current tests, however, commonly use stimuli that either display prototypical emotions, bearing the risk of ceiling effects and unequal task difficulty, or are cognitively too demanding and time-consuming. To overcome these limitations in FER testing in patient populations, we aimed to define FER threshold levels for the six basic emotions in healthy individuals. Forty-nine healthy individuals between 52 and 79 years of age were asked to identify the six basic emotions at different intensity levels (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, and 125% of the prototypical emotion). Analyses uncovered differing threshold levels across emotions and sex of facial stimuli, ranging from 50% up to 100% intensities. Using these findings as "healthy population benchmarks", we propose to apply these threshold levels to clinical populations either as facial emotion recognition or intensity rating tasks. As part of any comprehensive social cognition test battery, this approach should allow for a rapid and sensitive assessment of potential FER deficits.

  2. Dynamical analysis of a model of social behavior: Criminal vs non-criminal population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbas, Syed; Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Neha, A.A.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new social model of interaction between criminal and non-criminal population is proposed • The effect of law enforcement is studied • Many real life situations are analyzed • List of open problems is given for future work. - Abstract: In this paper, we construct a model motivated by the well known predator-prey model to study the interaction between criminal population and non-criminal population. Our aim is to study various possibilities of interactions between them. First we model it using simple predator-prey model, then we modify it by considering the logistic growth of non-criminal population. We clearly deduce that the model with logistic growth is better than classical one. More precisely, the role of carrying capacity on the dynamics of criminal minded population is discussed. Further, we incorporate law enforcement term in the model and study its effect. The result obtained suggest that by incorporating enforcement law, the criminal population reduces from the very beginning, which resembles with real life situation. Our result indicates that the criminal minded population exist as long as coefficient of enforcement l_c does not cross a threshold value and after this value the criminal minded population extinct. In addition, we also discuss the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcation in case of model system with law enforcement. Numerical examples and simulations are presented to illustrate the obtained results.

  3. Re-visiting Trichuris trichiura intensity thresholds based on anemia during pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa W Gyorkos

    Full Text Available The intensity categories, or thresholds, currently used for Trichuris trichiura (ie. epg intensities of 1-999 (light; 1,000-9,999 epg (moderate, and ≥ 10,000 epg (heavy were developed in the 1980s, when there were little epidemiological data available on dose-response relationships. This study was undertaken to determine a threshold for T. trichiura-associated anemia in pregnant women and to describe the implications of this threshold in terms of the need for primary prevention and chemotherapeutic interventions.In Iquitos, Peru, 935 pregnant women were tested for T. trichiura infection in their second trimester of pregnancy; were given daily iron supplements throughout their pregnancy; and had their blood hemoglobin levels measured in their third trimester of pregnancy. Women in the highest two T. trichiura intensity quintiles (601-1632 epg and ≥ 1633 epg had significantly lower mean hemoglobin concentrations than the lowest quintile (0-24 epg. They also had a statistically significantly higher risk of anemia, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.67 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.62 and 1.73 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.74, respectively.This analysis provides support for categorizing a T. trichiura infection ≥ 1,000 epg as 'moderate', as currently defined by the World Health Organization. Because this 'moderate' level of T. trichiura infection was found to be a significant risk factor for anemia in pregnant women, the intensity of Trichuris infection deemed to cause or aggravate anemia should no longer be restricted to the 'heavy' intensity category. It should now include both 'heavy' and 'moderate' intensities of Trichuris infection. Evidence-based deworming strategies targeting pregnant women or populations where anemia is of concern should be updated accordingly.

  4. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  5. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Clinical feasibility of a myocardial signal intensity threshold-based semi-automated cardiac magnetic resonance segmentation method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varga-Szemes, Akos; Schoepf, U.J.; Suranyi, Pal; De Cecco, Carlo N.; Fox, Mary A. [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); Muscogiuri, Giuseppe [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); University of Rome ' ' Sapienza' ' , Department of Medical-Surgical Sciences and Translational Medicine, Rome (Italy); Wichmann, Julian L. [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); University Hospital Frankfurt, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Frankfurt (Germany); Cannao, Paola M. [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); University of Milan, Scuola di Specializzazione in Radiodiagnostica, Milan (Italy); Renker, Matthias [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); Kerckhoff Heart and Thorax Center, Bad Nauheim (Germany); Mangold, Stefanie [Medical University of South Carolina, Division of Cardiovascular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Charleston, SC (United States); Eberhard-Karls University Tuebingen, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Tuebingen (Germany); Ruzsics, Balazs [Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospitals, Department of Cardiology, Liverpool (United Kingdom)

    2016-05-15

    To assess the accuracy and efficiency of a threshold-based, semi-automated cardiac MRI segmentation algorithm in comparison with conventional contour-based segmentation and aortic flow measurements. Short-axis cine images of 148 patients (55 ± 18 years, 81 men) were used to evaluate left ventricular (LV) volumes and mass (LVM) using conventional and threshold-based segmentations. Phase-contrast images were used to independently measure stroke volume (SV). LV parameters were evaluated by two independent readers. Evaluation times using the conventional and threshold-based methods were 8.4 ± 1.9 and 4.2 ± 1.3 min, respectively (P < 0.0001). LV parameters measured by the conventional and threshold-based methods, respectively, were end-diastolic volume (EDV) 146 ± 59 and 134 ± 53 ml; end-systolic volume (ESV) 64 ± 47 and 59 ± 46 ml; SV 82 ± 29 and 74 ± 28 ml (flow-based 74 ± 30 ml); ejection fraction (EF) 59 ± 16 and 58 ± 17 %; and LVM 141 ± 55 and 159 ± 58 g. Significant differences between the conventional and threshold-based methods were observed in EDV, ESV, and LVM measurements; SV from threshold-based and flow-based measurements were in agreement (P > 0.05) but were significantly different from conventional analysis (P < 0.05). Excellent inter-observer agreement was observed. Threshold-based LV segmentation provides improved accuracy and faster assessment compared to conventional contour-based methods. (orig.)

  7. Comparative performance of diabetes-specific and general population-based cardiovascular risk assessment models in people with diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echouffo-Tcheugui, J-B; Kengne, A P

    2013-10-01

    Multivariable models for estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with diabetes comprise general population-based models and those from diabetic cohorts. Whether one set of models should receive preference is unclear. We evaluated the evidence on direct comparisons of the performance of general population vs diabetes-specific CVD risk models in people with diabetes. MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to March 2013. Two reviewers independently identified studies that compared the performance of general CVD models vs diabetes-specific ones in the same group of people with diabetes. Independent, dual data extraction on study design, risk models, outcomes; and measures of performance was conducted. Eleven articles reporting on 22 pair wise comparisons of a diabetes-specific model (UKPDS, ADVANCE and DCS risk models) to a general population model (three variants of the Framingham model, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster [PROCAM] score, CardioRisk Manager [CRM], Joint British Societies Coronary Risk Chart [JBSRC], Progetto Cuore algorithm and the CHD-Riskard algorithm) were eligible. Absolute differences in C-statistic of diabetes-specific vs general population-based models varied from -0.13 to 0.09. Comparisons for other performance measures were unusual. Outcomes definitions were congruent with those applied during model development. In 14 comparisons, the UKPDS, ADVANCE or DCS diabetes-specific models were superior to the general population CVD risk models. Authors reported better C-statistic for models they developed. The limited existing evidence suggests a possible discriminatory advantage of diabetes-specific over general population-based models for CVD risk stratification in diabetes. More robust head-to-head comparisons are needed to confirm this trend and strengthen recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Edward H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Green, Nicholas S.; Albers, Janice L.

    2016-02-10

    The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level.The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource

  9. A dynamic population-based model for the development of work-related respiratory health effects among bakery workers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This paper presents a dynamic population-based model for the development of sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in bakery workers. The model simulates a population of individual workers longitudinally and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in

  10. A dynamic population-based model for the development of work-related respiratory health effects among bakery workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.; Meijster, T.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: This paper presents a dynamic population-based model for the development of sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in bakery workers. The model simulates a population of individual workers longitudinally and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in

  11. A threshold auto-adjustment algorithm of feature points extraction based on grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zili; Li, Jun; Dong, Gaojie

    2018-02-01

    When dealing with high-resolution digital images, detection of feature points is usually the very first important step. Valid feature points depend on the threshold. If the threshold is too low, plenty of feature points will be detected, and they may be aggregated in the rich texture regions, which consequently not only affects the speed of feature description, but also aggravates the burden of following processing; if the threshold is set high, the feature points in poor texture area will lack. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a threshold auto-adjustment method of feature extraction based on grid. By dividing the image into numbers of grid, threshold is set in every local grid for extracting the feature points. When the number of feature points does not meet the threshold requirement, the threshold will be adjusted automatically to change the final number of feature points The experimental results show that feature points produced by our method is more uniform and representative, which avoids the aggregation of feature points and greatly reduces the complexity of following work.

  12. Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis of Novel Threshold Voltage Definition for Nano-MOSFET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashu Swami

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Threshold voltage (VTH is the indispensable vital parameter in MOSFET designing, modeling, and operation. Diverse expounds and extraction methods exist to model the on-off transition characteristics of the device. The governing gauge for efficient threshold voltage definition and extraction method can be itemized as clarity, simplicity, precision, and stability throughout the operating conditions and technology node. The outcomes of extraction methods diverge from the exact values due to various short-channel effects (SCEs and nonidealities present in the device. A new approach to define and extract the real value of VTH of MOSFET is proposed in the manuscript. The subsequent novel enhanced SCE-independent VTH extraction method named “hybrid extrapolation VTH extraction method” (HEEM is elaborated, modeled, and compared with few prevalent MOSFET threshold voltage extraction methods for validation of the results. All the results are verified by extensive 2D TCAD simulation and confirmed analytically at various technology nodes.

  13. Modeling on oxide dependent 2DEG sheet charge density and threshold voltage in AlGaN/GaN MOSHEMT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, J.; Jena, K.; Swain, R.; Lenka, T. R.

    2016-04-01

    We have developed a physics based analytical model for the calculation of threshold voltage, two dimensional electron gas (2DEG) density and surface potential for AlGaN/GaN metal oxide semiconductor high electron mobility transistors (MOSHEMT). The developed model includes important parameters like polarization charge density at oxide/AlGaN and AlGaN/GaN interfaces, interfacial defect oxide charges and donor charges at the surface of the AlGaN barrier. The effects of two different gate oxides (Al2O3 and HfO2) are compared for the performance evaluation of the proposed MOSHEMT. The MOSHEMTs with Al2O3 dielectric have an advantage of significant increase in 2DEG up to 1.2 × 1013 cm-2 with an increase in oxide thickness up to 10 nm as compared to HfO2 dielectric MOSHEMT. The surface potential for HfO2 based device decreases from 2 to -1.6 eV within 10 nm of oxide thickness whereas for the Al2O3 based device a sharp transition of surface potential occurs from 2.8 to -8.3 eV. The variation in oxide thickness and gate metal work function of the proposed MOSHEMT shifts the threshold voltage from negative to positive realizing the enhanced mode operation. Further to validate the model, the device is simulated in Silvaco Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) showing good agreement with the proposed model results. The accuracy of the developed calculations of the proposed model can be used to develop a complete physics based 2DEG sheet charge density and threshold voltage model for GaN MOSHEMT devices for performance analysis.

  14. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  15. A threshold model for Australian Stock Exchange equities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, William K.

    2005-02-01

    In this paper, we present a threshold model to describe the phenomena of zero return enhancement that is present in Australian Stock Exchange data. We examine the intraday behaviour of the ASX data and construct a new measure for the market activity using principal component analysis. We use this measure to create a business time scale that keeps the level of zero return enhancement constant throughout trading hours. Operating in this new time scale we fit the model to data for small and large time scales and find that the model affords an excellent approximation of the distribution of stock returns.

  16. Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models with eXogenous Input

    OpenAIRE

    Addo, Peter Martey

    2014-01-01

    This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm and LSE (least squares estimate) algorithm for this class of models is then provided via simulations.

  17. Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased

  18. An Analytic Approach to Developing Transport Threshold Models of Neoclassical Tearing Modes in Tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhailovskii, A.B.; Shirokov, M.S.; Konovalov, S.V.; Tsypin, V.S.

    2005-01-01

    Transport threshold models of neoclassical tearing modes in tokamaks are investigated analytically. An analysis is made of the competition between strong transverse heat transport, on the one hand, and longitudinal heat transport, longitudinal heat convection, longitudinal inertial transport, and rotational transport, on the other hand, which leads to the establishment of the perturbed temperature profile in magnetic islands. It is shown that, in all these cases, the temperature profile can be found analytically by using rigorous solutions to the heat conduction equation in the near and far regions of a chain of magnetic islands and then by matching these solutions. Analytic expressions for the temperature profile are used to calculate the contribution of the bootstrap current to the generalized Rutherford equation for the island width evolution with the aim of constructing particular transport threshold models of neoclassical tearing modes. Four transport threshold models, differing in the underlying competing mechanisms, are analyzed: collisional, convective, inertial, and rotational models. The collisional model constructed analytically is shown to coincide exactly with that calculated numerically; the reason is that the analytical temperature profile turns out to be the same as the numerical profile. The results obtained can be useful in developing the next generation of general threshold models. The first steps toward such models have already been made

  19. THRIVE: threshold homomorphic encryption based secure and privacy preserving biometric verification system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabat, Cagatay; Kiraz, Mehmet Sabir; Erdogan, Hakan; Savas, Erkay

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new biometric verification and template protection system which we call THRIVE. The system includes novel enrollment and authentication protocols based on threshold homomorphic encryption where a private key is shared between a user and a verifier. In the THRIVE system, only encrypted binary biometric templates are stored in a database and verification is performed via homomorphically randomized templates, thus, original templates are never revealed during authentication. Due to the underlying threshold homomorphic encryption scheme, a malicious database owner cannot perform full decryption on encrypted templates of the users in the database. In addition, security of the THRIVE system is enhanced using a two-factor authentication scheme involving user's private key and biometric data. Using simulation-based techniques, the proposed system is proven secure in the malicious model. The proposed system is suitable for applications where the user does not want to reveal her biometrics to the verifier in plain form, but needs to prove her identity by using biometrics. The system can be used with any biometric modality where a feature extraction method yields a fixed size binary template and a query template is verified when its Hamming distance to the database template is less than a threshold. The overall connection time for the proposed THRIVE system is estimated to be 336 ms on average for 256-bit biometric templates on a desktop PC running with quad core 3.2 GHz CPUs at 10 Mbit/s up/down link connection speed. Consequently, the proposed system can be efficiently used in real-life applications.

  20. A flexible cure rate model with dependent censoring and a known cure threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Paul W

    2016-11-10

    We propose a flexible cure rate model that accommodates different censoring distributions for the cured and uncured groups and also allows for some individuals to be observed as cured when their survival time exceeds a known threshold. We model the survival times for the uncured group using an accelerated failure time model with errors distributed according to the seminonparametric distribution, potentially truncated at a known threshold. We suggest a straightforward extension of the usual expectation-maximization algorithm approach for obtaining estimates in cure rate models to accommodate the cure threshold and dependent censoring. We additionally suggest a likelihood ratio test for testing for the presence of dependent censoring in the proposed cure rate model. We show through numerical studies that our model has desirable properties and leads to approximately unbiased parameter estimates in a variety of scenarios. To demonstrate how our method performs in practice, we analyze data from a bone marrow transplantation study and a liver transplant study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Semi-empirical model for the threshold voltage of a double implanted MOSFET and its temperature dependence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arora, N D

    1987-05-01

    A simple and accurate semi-empirical model for the threshold voltage of a small geometry double implanted enhancement type MOSFET, especially useful in a circuit simulation program like SPICE, has been developed. The effect of short channel length and narrow width on the threshold voltage has been taken into account through a geometrical approximation, which involves parameters whose values can be determined from the curve fitting experimental data. A model for the temperature dependence of the threshold voltage for the implanted devices has also been presented. The temperature coefficient of the threshold voltage was found to change with decreasing channel length and width. Experimental results from various device sizes, both short and narrow, show very good agreement with the model. The model has been implemented in SPICE as part of the complete dc model.

  2. Image-based thresholds for weeds in maize fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asif, Ali; Streibig, Jens Carl; Christensen, Svend

    2015-01-01

    in some parts of the field and if late germinating weeds do not affect yield, it may not be necessary the spray such places from an economic point of view. Consequently, it makes sense to develop weed control thresholds for patch spraying, based on weed cover early in the growing season. In Danish maize...

  3. Model-dependence of the CO2 threshold for melting the hard Snowball Earth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. R. Peltier

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the critical issues of the Snowball Earth hypothesis is the CO2 threshold for triggering the deglaciation. Using Community Atmospheric Model version 3.0 (CAM3, we study the problem for the CO2 threshold. Our simulations show large differences from previous results (e.g. Pierrehumbert, 2004, 2005; Le Hir et al., 2007. At 0.2 bars of CO2, the January maximum near-surface temperature is about 268 K, about 13 K higher than that in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005, but lower than the value of 270 K for 0.1 bar of CO2 in Le Hir et al. (2007. It is found that the difference of simulation results is mainly due to model sensitivity of greenhouse effect and longwave cloud forcing to increasing CO2. At 0.2 bars of CO2, CAM3 yields 117 Wm−2 of clear-sky greenhouse effect and 32 Wm−2 of longwave cloud forcing, versus only about 77 Wm−2 and 10.5 Wm−2 in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005, respectively. CAM3 has comparable clear-sky greenhouse effect to that in Le Hir et al. (2007, but lower longwave cloud forcing. CAM3 also produces much stronger Hadley cells than that in Pierrehumbert (2005. Effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption are also studied using a radiative-convective model and CAM3. Both effects substantially increase surface temperature and thus lower the CO2 threshold. The radiative-convective model yields a CO2 threshold of about 0.21 bars with surface albedo of 0.663. Without considering the effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption, CAM3 yields an approximate CO2 threshold of about 1.0 bar for surface albedo of about 0.6. However, the threshold is lowered to 0.38 bars as both effects are considered.

  4. Stochasticity thresholds in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callegari, B [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica; Carotta, M C; Ferrario, C [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Lo Vecchio, G [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Gruppo Nazionale di Struttura della Materia, Ferrara (Italy)); Galgani, L [Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica)

    1979-12-11

    The authors consider the celebrated model of Fermi, Pasta and Ulam and give a numerical estimate for its thresholds of stochasticity, thus determining a critical energy as a function of the frequency of the corresponding oscillators. The results turn out to be qualitatively similar to those already obtained for a chain of particles with nearest-neighbour Lennard-Jones interaction potential.

  5. Stochasticity thresholds in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callegari, B.; Galgani, L.; Milan Univ.

    1979-01-01

    The authors consider the celebrated model of Fermi, Pasta and Ulam and give a numerical estimate for its thresholds of stochasticity, thus determining a critical energy as a function of the frequency of the corresponding oscillators. The results turn out to be qualitatively similar to those already obtained for a chain of particles with nearest-neighbour Lennard-Jones interaction potential. (author)

  6. A Combinatorics Proliferation Model with Threshold for Malware Countermeasure

    OpenAIRE

    Omote, Kazumasa; Shimoyama, Takeshi; Torii, Satoru

    2010-01-01

    Security software such as anti-virus software and personal firewall are usually installed in every host within an enterprise network. There are mainly two kinds of security software: signature-based software and anomaly-based software. Anomaly-based software generally has a “threshold” that discriminates between normal traffic and malware communications in network traffic observation. Such a threshold involves the number of packets used for behavior checking by the anomaly-based software. Als...

  7. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  8. Unified analytical threshold voltage model for non-uniformly doped dual metal gate fully depleted silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Rathnamala; Katti, Guruprasad; Havaldar, Dnyanesh S.; DasGupta, Nandita; DasGupta, Amitava

    2009-03-01

    The paper describes the unified analytical threshold voltage model for non-uniformly doped, dual metal gate (DMG) fully depleted silicon-on-insulator (FDSOI) MOSFETs based on the solution of 2D Poisson's equation. 2D Poisson's equation is solved analytically for appropriate boundary conditions using separation of variables technique. The solution is then extended to obtain the threshold voltage of the FDSOI MOSFET. The model is able to handle any kind of non-uniform doping, viz. vertical, lateral as well as laterally asymetric channel (LAC) profile in the SOI film in addition to the DMG structure. The analytical results are validated with the numerical simulations using the device simulator MEDICI.

  9. A Jackson network model and threshold policy for joint optimization of energy and delay in multi-hop wireless networks

    KAUST Repository

    Xia, Li; Shihada, Basem

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the joint optimization problem of energy and delay in a multi-hop wireless network. The optimization variables are the transmission rates, which are adjustable according to the packet queueing length in the buffer. The optimization goal is to minimize the energy consumption of energy-critical nodes and the packet transmission delay throughout the network. In this paper, we aim at understanding the well-known decentralized algorithms which are threshold based from a different research angle. By using a simplified network model, we show that we can adopt the semi-open Jackson network model and study this optimization problem in closed form. This simplified network model further allows us to establish some significant optimality properties. We prove that the system performance is monotonic with respect to (w.r.t.) the transmission rate. We also prove that the threshold-type policy is optimal, i.e., when the number of packets in the buffer is larger than a threshold, transmit with the maximal rate (power); otherwise, no transmission. With these optimality properties, we develop a heuristic algorithm to iteratively find the optimal threshold. Finally, we conduct some simulation experiments to demonstrate the main idea of this paper.

  10. A Jackson network model and threshold policy for joint optimization of energy and delay in multi-hop wireless networks

    KAUST Repository

    Xia, Li

    2014-11-20

    This paper studies the joint optimization problem of energy and delay in a multi-hop wireless network. The optimization variables are the transmission rates, which are adjustable according to the packet queueing length in the buffer. The optimization goal is to minimize the energy consumption of energy-critical nodes and the packet transmission delay throughout the network. In this paper, we aim at understanding the well-known decentralized algorithms which are threshold based from a different research angle. By using a simplified network model, we show that we can adopt the semi-open Jackson network model and study this optimization problem in closed form. This simplified network model further allows us to establish some significant optimality properties. We prove that the system performance is monotonic with respect to (w.r.t.) the transmission rate. We also prove that the threshold-type policy is optimal, i.e., when the number of packets in the buffer is larger than a threshold, transmit with the maximal rate (power); otherwise, no transmission. With these optimality properties, we develop a heuristic algorithm to iteratively find the optimal threshold. Finally, we conduct some simulation experiments to demonstrate the main idea of this paper.

  11. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  12. Threshold evaluations of industrial conservation technologies run in ISTUM base case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-12-20

    The results of threshold evaluations performed on several INDUS technologies which were competed with other new and conventional industrial technologies in the Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM) developed by EEA are summarized. The ISTUM model is briefly described and includes the input technology categories and service sectors treated in the model, and the solution technique used. The input data specifications are summaried for the Industry Conservation Technologies run in the ISTUM base case. Included are listings of the technologies run in ISTUM, those not run in ISTUM, and a discussion of the absence of a retrofit algorithm in ISTUM and its resulting impact on conservation technologies. Also included is a discussion of the capital cost variability, maximum market fraction, size and load factors and data quality specifications for the conservation technologies in ISTUM. The results of the ISTUM base case run are presented, describing the important limitations and constraints of the base case run, the key assumptions inherent in the base case, and the summarized results of energy savings by year for different generic technology types. The technology characterization data developed for each INDUS technology run in the ISTUM base case are discussed in detail. The descriptions include the calculations and assumptions used in determining the service demand displacement, equipment cost, maximum market fraction, data quality, and size and load range for each technology.

  13. Are individual based models a suitable approach to estimate population vulnerability? - a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maria Griebeler

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available European populations of the Large Blue Butterfly Maculinea arion have experienced severe declines in the last decades, especially in the northern part of the species range. This endangered lycaenid butterfly needs two resources for development: flower buds of specific plants (Thymus spp., Origanum vulgare, on which young caterpillars briefly feed, and red ants of the genus Myrmica, whose nests support caterpillars during a prolonged final instar. I present an analytically solvable deterministic model to estimate the vulnerability of populations of M. arion. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis of this mathematical model (MM are contrasted to the respective results that had been derived from a spatially explicit individual based model (IBM for this butterfly. I demonstrate that details in landscape configuration which are neglected by the MM but are easily taken into consideration by the IBM result in a different degree of intraspecific competition of caterpillars on flower buds and within host ant nests. The resulting differences in mortalities of caterpillars lead to erroneous estimates of the extinction risk of a butterfly population living in habitat with low food plant coverage and low abundance in host ant nests. This observation favors the use of an individual based modeling approach over the deterministic approach at least for the management of this threatened butterfly.

  14. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  15. Optical Associative Memory Model With Threshold Modification Using Complementary Vector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Shaoping; Xu, Kebin; Hong, Jing

    1989-02-01

    A new criterion to evaluate the similarity between two vectors in associative memory is presented. According to it, an experimental research about optical associative memory model with threshold modification using complementary vector is carried out. This model is capable of eliminating the posibility to recall erroneously. Therefore the accuracy of reading out is improved.

  16. Otsu Based Optimal Multilevel Image Thresholding Using Firefly Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Sri Madhava Raja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Histogram based multilevel thresholding approach is proposed using Brownian distribution (BD guided firefly algorithm (FA. A bounded search technique is also presented to improve the optimization accuracy with lesser search iterations. Otsu’s between-class variance function is maximized to obtain optimal threshold level for gray scale images. The performances of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated by considering twelve benchmark images and are compared with the existing FA algorithms such as Lévy flight (LF guided FA and random operator guided FA. The performance assessment comparison between the proposed and existing firefly algorithms is carried using prevailing parameters such as objective function, standard deviation, peak-to-signal ratio (PSNR, structural similarity (SSIM index, and search time of CPU. The results show that BD guided FA provides better objective function, PSNR, and SSIM, whereas LF based FA provides faster convergence with relatively lower CPU time.

  17. Multilevel Thresholding Method Based on Electromagnetism for Accurate Brain MRI Segmentation to Detect White Matter, Gray Matter, and CSF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sandhya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This work explains an advanced and accurate brain MRI segmentation method. MR brain image segmentation is to know the anatomical structure, to identify the abnormalities, and to detect various tissues which help in treatment planning prior to radiation therapy. This proposed technique is a Multilevel Thresholding (MT method based on the phenomenon of Electromagnetism and it segments the image into three tissues such as White Matter (WM, Gray Matter (GM, and CSF. The approach incorporates skull stripping and filtering using anisotropic diffusion filter in the preprocessing stage. This thresholding method uses the force of attraction-repulsion between the charged particles to increase the population. It is the combination of Electromagnetism-Like optimization algorithm with the Otsu and Kapur objective functions. The results obtained by using the proposed method are compared with the ground-truth images and have given best values for the measures sensitivity, specificity, and segmentation accuracy. The results using 10 MR brain images proved that the proposed method has accurately segmented the three brain tissues compared to the existing segmentation methods such as K-means, fuzzy C-means, OTSU MT, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO, Bacterial Foraging Algorithm (BFA, Genetic Algorithm (GA, and Fuzzy Local Gaussian Mixture Model (FLGMM.

  18. The liability threshold model for censored twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Klaus K.; Scheike, Thomas; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2016-01-01

    the disease thus still being at risk. Ignoring this right-censoring can lead to severely biased estimates. The classical liability threshold model can be extended with inverse probability of censoring weighting of complete observations. This leads to a flexible way of modelling twin concordance and obtaining...... studies of diseases, as a way of quantifying such genetic contribution. The endpoint in these studies are typically defined as occurrence of a disease versus death without the disease. However, a large fraction of the subjects may still be alive at the time of follow-up without having experienced...

  19. Auditory-nerve single-neuron thresholds to electrical stimulation from scala tympani electrodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkins, C W; Colombo, J

    1987-12-31

    Single auditory-nerve neuron thresholds were studied in sensory-deafened squirrel monkeys to determine the effects of electrical stimulus shape and frequency on single-neuron thresholds. Frequency was separated into its components, pulse width and pulse rate, which were analyzed separately. Square and sinusoidal pulse shapes were compared. There were no or questionably significant threshold differences in charge per phase between sinusoidal and square pulses of the same pulse width. There was a small (less than 0.5 dB) but significant threshold advantage for 200 microseconds/phase pulses delivered at low pulse rates (156 pps) compared to higher pulse rates (625 pps and 2500 pps). Pulse width was demonstrated to be the prime determinant of single-neuron threshold, resulting in strength-duration curves similar to other mammalian myelinated neurons, but with longer chronaxies. The most efficient electrical stimulus pulse width to use for cochlear implant stimulation was determined to be 100 microseconds/phase. This pulse width delivers the lowest charge/phase at threshold. The single-neuron strength-duration curves were compared to strength-duration curves of a computer model based on the specific anatomy of auditory-nerve neurons. The membrane capacitance and resulting chronaxie of the model can be varied by altering the length of the unmyelinated termination of the neuron, representing the unmyelinated portion of the neuron between the habenula perforata and the hair cell. This unmyelinated segment of the auditory-nerve neuron may be subject to aminoglycoside damage. Simulating a 10 micron unmyelinated termination for this model neuron produces a strength-duration curve that closely fits the single-neuron data obtained from aminoglycoside deafened animals. Both the model and the single-neuron strength-duration curves differ significantly from behavioral threshold data obtained from monkeys and humans with cochlear implants. This discrepancy can best be explained by

  20. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  1. Winner's Curse Correction and Variable Thresholding Improve Performance of Polygenic Risk Modeling Based on Genome-Wide Association Study Summary-Level Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxin Shi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent heritability analyses have indicated that genome-wide association studies (GWAS have the potential to improve genetic risk prediction for complex diseases based on polygenic risk score (PRS, a simple modelling technique that can be implemented using summary-level data from the discovery samples. We herein propose modifications to improve the performance of PRS. We introduce threshold-dependent winner's-curse adjustments for marginal association coefficients that are used to weight the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in PRS. Further, as a way to incorporate external functional/annotation knowledge that could identify subsets of SNPs highly enriched for associations, we propose variable thresholds for SNPs selection. We applied our methods to GWAS summary-level data of 14 complex diseases. Across all diseases, a simple winner's curse correction uniformly led to enhancement of performance of the models, whereas incorporation of functional SNPs was beneficial only for selected diseases. Compared to the standard PRS algorithm, the proposed methods in combination led to notable gain in efficiency (25-50% increase in the prediction R2 for 5 of 14 diseases. As an example, for GWAS of type 2 diabetes, winner's curse correction improved prediction R2 from 2.29% based on the standard PRS to 3.10% (P = 0.0017 and incorporating functional annotation data further improved R2 to 3.53% (P = 2×10-5. Our simulation studies illustrate why differential treatment of certain categories of functional SNPs, even when shown to be highly enriched for GWAS-heritability, does not lead to proportionate improvement in genetic risk-prediction because of non-uniform linkage disequilibrium structure.

  2. Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

    KAUST Repository

    Naveau, Philippe

    2016-04-09

    In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

  3. An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pine, William Pine; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

    2013-01-01

    We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

  4. QRS Detection Based on Improved Adaptive Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanyu Lu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease is the first cause of death around the world. In accomplishing quick and accurate diagnosis, automatic electrocardiogram (ECG analysis algorithm plays an important role, whose first step is QRS detection. The threshold algorithm of QRS complex detection is known for its high-speed computation and minimized memory storage. In this mobile era, threshold algorithm can be easily transported into portable, wearable, and wireless ECG systems. However, the detection rate of the threshold algorithm still calls for improvement. An improved adaptive threshold algorithm for QRS detection is reported in this paper. The main steps of this algorithm are preprocessing, peak finding, and adaptive threshold QRS detecting. The detection rate is 99.41%, the sensitivity (Se is 99.72%, and the specificity (Sp is 99.69% on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. A comparison is also made with two other algorithms, to prove our superiority. The suspicious abnormal area is shown at the end of the algorithm and RR-Lorenz plot drawn for doctors and cardiologists to use as aid for diagnosis.

  5. Method for mapping population-based case-control studies: an application using generalized additive models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aschengrau Ann

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence and risk can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Disease registry data are often mapped by town or county of diagnosis and contain limited data on covariates. These maps often possess poor spatial resolution, the potential for spatial confounding, and the inability to consider latency. Population-based case-control studies can provide detailed information on residential history and covariates. Results Generalized additive models (GAMs provide a useful framework for mapping point-based epidemiologic data. Smoothing on location while controlling for covariates produces adjusted maps. We generate maps of odds ratios using the entire study area as a reference. We smooth using a locally weighted regression smoother (loess, a method that combines the advantages of nearest neighbor and kernel methods. We choose an optimal degree of smoothing by minimizing Akaike's Information Criterion. We use a deviance-based test to assess the overall importance of location in the model and pointwise permutation tests to locate regions of significantly increased or decreased risk. The method is illustrated with synthetic data and data from a population-based case-control study, using S-Plus and ArcView software. Conclusion Our goal is to develop practical methods for mapping population-based case-control and cohort studies. The method described here performs well for our synthetic data, reproducing important features of the data and adequately controlling the covariate. When applied to the population-based case-control data set, the method suggests spatial confounding and identifies statistically significant areas of increased and decreased odds ratios.

  6. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R.C.; Wieczorek, G.F.

    1995-01-01

    A simple numerical model, based on the physical analogy of a leaky barrel, can simulate significant features of the interaction between rainfall and shallow-hillslope pore pressures. The leaky-barrel-model threshold is consistent with, but slightly higher than, an earlier, purely empirical, threshold. The number of debris flows triggered by a storm can be related to the time and amount by which the leaky-barrel-model response exceeded the threshold during the storm. -from Authors

  7. A Threshold Model of Social Support, Adjustment, and Distress after Breast Cancer Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallinckrodt, Brent; Armer, Jane M.; Heppner, P. Paul

    2012-01-01

    This study examined a threshold model that proposes that social support exhibits a curvilinear association with adjustment and distress, such that support in excess of a critical threshold level has decreasing incremental benefits. Women diagnosed with a first occurrence of breast cancer (N = 154) completed survey measures of perceived support…

  8. Population PK modelling and simulation based on fluoxetine and norfluoxetine concentrations in milk: a milk concentration-based prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanoshima, Reo; Bournissen, Facundo Garcia; Tanigawara, Yusuke; Kristensen, Judith H; Taddio, Anna; Ilett, Kenneth F; Begg, Evan J; Wallach, Izhar; Ito, Shinya

    2014-10-01

    Population pharmacokinetic (pop PK) modelling can be used for PK assessment of drugs in breast milk. However, complex mechanistic modelling of a parent and an active metabolite using both blood and milk samples is challenging. We aimed to develop a simple predictive pop PK model for milk concentration-time profiles of a parent and a metabolite, using data on fluoxetine (FX) and its active metabolite, norfluoxetine (NFX), in milk. Using a previously published data set of drug concentrations in milk from 25 women treated with FX, a pop PK model predictive of milk concentration-time profiles of FX and NFX was developed. Simulation was performed with the model to generate FX and NFX concentration-time profiles in milk of 1000 mothers. This milk concentration-based pop PK model was compared with the previously validated plasma/milk concentration-based pop PK model of FX. Milk FX and NFX concentration-time profiles were described reasonably well by a one compartment model with a FX-to-NFX conversion coefficient. Median values of the simulated relative infant dose on a weight basis (sRID: weight-adjusted daily doses of FX and NFX through breastmilk to the infant, expressed as a fraction of therapeutic FX daily dose per body weight) were 0.028 for FX and 0.029 for NFX. The FX sRID estimates were consistent with those of the plasma/milk-based pop PK model. A predictive pop PK model based on only milk concentrations can be developed for simultaneous estimation of milk concentration-time profiles of a parent (FX) and an active metabolite (NFX). © 2014 The British Pharmacological Society.

  9. Assessing three fish species ecological status in Colorado River, Grand Canyon based on physical habitat and population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Weiwei; Chen, Yuansheng

    2018-04-01

    Colorado River is a unique ecosystem and provides important ecological services such as habitat for fish species as well as water power energy supplies. River management for this ecosystem requires assessment and decision support tools for fish which involves protecting, restoring as well as forecasting of future conditions. In this paper, a habitat and population model was developed and used to determine the levels of fish habitat suitability and population density in Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Lake Mead. The short term target fish populations are also predicted based on native fish recovery strategy. This model has been developed by combining hydrodynamics, heat transfer and sediment transport models with a habitat suitability index model and then coupling with habitat model into life stage population model. The fish were divided into four life stages according to the fish length. Three most abundant and typical native and non-native fish were selected as target species, which are rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). Flow velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrates were used as the suitability indicators in habitat model and overall suitability index (OSI) as well as weight usable area (WUA) was used as an indicator in population model. A comparison was made between simulated fish population alteration and surveyed fish number fluctuation during 2000 to 2009. The application of this habitat and population model indicates that this model can be accurate present habitat situation and targets fish population dynamics of in the study areas. The analysis also indicates the flannelmouth sucker population will steadily increase while the rainbow trout will decrease based on the native fish recovery scheme. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

    2018-03-01

    Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the

  11. A threshold-voltage model for small-scaled GaAs nMOSFET with stacked high-k gate dielectric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Chaowen; Xu Jingping; Liu Lu; Lu Hanhan; Huang Yuan

    2016-01-01

    A threshold-voltage model for a stacked high-k gate dielectric GaAs MOSFET is established by solving a two-dimensional Poisson's equation in channel and considering the short-channel, DIBL and quantum effects. The simulated results are in good agreement with the Silvaco TCAD data, confirming the correctness and validity of the model. Using the model, impacts of structural and physical parameters of the stack high-k gate dielectric on the threshold-voltage shift and the temperature characteristics of the threshold voltage are investigated. The results show that the stacked gate dielectric structure can effectively suppress the fringing-field and DIBL effects and improve the threshold and temperature characteristics, and on the other hand, the influence of temperature on the threshold voltage is overestimated if the quantum effect is ignored. (paper)

  12. Analytical threshold voltage modeling of ion-implanted strained-Si double-material double-gate (DMDG) MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Ekta; Singh, Balraj; Kumar, Sanjay; Singh, Kunal; Jit, Satyabrata

    2017-04-01

    Two dimensional threshold voltage model of ion-implanted strained-Si double-material double-gate MOSFETs has been done based on the solution of two dimensional Poisson's equation in the channel region using the parabolic approximation method. Novelty of the proposed device structure lies in the amalgamation of the advantages of both the strained-Si channel and double-material double-gate structure with a vertical Gaussian-like doping profile. The effects of different device parameters (such as device channel length, gate length ratios, germanium mole fraction) and doping parameters (such as projected range, straggle parameter) on threshold voltage of the proposed structure have been investigated. It is observed that the subthreshold performance of the device can be improved by simply controlling the doping parameters while maintaining other device parameters constant. The modeling results show a good agreement with the numerical simulation data obtained by using ATLAS™, a 2D device simulator from SILVACO.

  13. Cost-effectiveness thresholds: pros and cons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Melanie Y; Lauer, Jeremy A; De Joncheere, Kees; Edejer, Tessa; Hutubessy, Raymond; Kieny, Marie-Paule; Hill, Suzanne R

    2016-12-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is used to compare the costs and outcomes of alternative policy options. Each resulting cost-effectiveness ratio represents the magnitude of additional health gained per additional unit of resources spent. Cost-effectiveness thresholds allow cost-effectiveness ratios that represent good or very good value for money to be identified. In 2001, the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics in Health suggested cost-effectiveness thresholds based on multiples of a country's per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). In some contexts, in choosing which health interventions to fund and which not to fund, these thresholds have been used as decision rules. However, experience with the use of such GDP-based thresholds in decision-making processes at country level shows them to lack country specificity and this - in addition to uncertainty in the modelled cost-effectiveness ratios - can lead to the wrong decision on how to spend health-care resources. Cost-effectiveness information should be used alongside other considerations - e.g. budget impact and feasibility considerations - in a transparent decision-making process, rather than in isolation based on a single threshold value. Although cost-effectiveness ratios are undoubtedly informative in assessing value for money, countries should be encouraged to develop a context-specific process for decision-making that is supported by legislation, has stakeholder buy-in, for example the involvement of civil society organizations and patient groups, and is transparent, consistent and fair.

  14. Cost–effectiveness thresholds: pros and cons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, Jeremy A; De Joncheere, Kees; Edejer, Tessa; Hutubessy, Raymond; Kieny, Marie-Paule; Hill, Suzanne R

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Cost–effectiveness analysis is used to compare the costs and outcomes of alternative policy options. Each resulting cost–effectiveness ratio represents the magnitude of additional health gained per additional unit of resources spent. Cost–effectiveness thresholds allow cost–effectiveness ratios that represent good or very good value for money to be identified. In 2001, the World Health Organization’s Commission on Macroeconomics in Health suggested cost–effectiveness thresholds based on multiples of a country’s per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). In some contexts, in choosing which health interventions to fund and which not to fund, these thresholds have been used as decision rules. However, experience with the use of such GDP-based thresholds in decision-making processes at country level shows them to lack country specificity and this – in addition to uncertainty in the modelled cost–effectiveness ratios – can lead to the wrong decision on how to spend health-care resources. Cost–effectiveness information should be used alongside other considerations – e.g. budget impact and feasibility considerations – in a transparent decision-making process, rather than in isolation based on a single threshold value. Although cost–effectiveness ratios are undoubtedly informative in assessing value for money, countries should be encouraged to develop a context-specific process for decision-making that is supported by legislation, has stakeholder buy-in, for example the involvement of civil society organizations and patient groups, and is transparent, consistent and fair. PMID:27994285

  15. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  16. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  17. Analytical modeling of threshold voltage for Cylindrical Gate All Around (CGAA MOSFET using center potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.P. Pradhan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an analytical threshold voltage model is proposed for a cylindrical gate-all-around (CGAA MOSFET by solving the 2-D Poisson’s equation in the cylindrical coordinate system. A comparison is made for both the center and the surface potential model of CGAA MOSFET. This paper claims that the calculation of threshold voltage using center potential is more accurate rather than the calculation from surface potential. The effects of the device parameters like the drain bias (VDS, oxide thickness (tox, channel thickness (r, etc., on the threshold voltage are also studied in this paper. The model is verified with 3D numerical device simulator Sentaurus from Synopsys Inc.

  18. Diverging strains near threshold: Breakdown of the elastic description of a charge density wave model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mungan, M.; Coppersmith, S.; Vinokur, V.M.

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the strains near threshold in 1-d charge density wave models at zero temperature and strong pinning. We show that in these models local strains diverge near the depinning threshold and characterize the scaling behavior of the phenomenon. This helps quantify when the underlying elastic description breaks down and plastic effects have to be included

  19. Genetic variation in threshold reaction norms for alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piché, Jacinthe; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Blanchard, Wade

    2008-07-07

    Alternative reproductive tactics may be a product of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that discontinuous variation in life history depends on both the genotype and the environment. Phenotypes that fall below a genetically determined threshold adopt one tactic, while those exceeding the threshold adopt the alternative tactic. We report evidence of genetic variability in maturation thresholds for male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that mature either as large (more than 1 kg) anadromous males or as small (10-150 g) parr. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we find that the growth rate at which the sneaker parr phenotype is expressed differs among pure- and mixed-population crosses. Maturation thresholds of hybrids were intermediate to those of pure crosses, consistent with the hypothesis that the life-history switch points are heritable. Our work provides evidence, for a vertebrate, that thresholds for alternative reproductive tactics differ genetically among populations and can be modelled as discontinuous reaction norms for age and size at maturity.

  20. A threshold-voltage model for small-scaled GaAs nMOSFET with stacked high-k gate dielectric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaowen, Liu; Jingping, Xu; Lu, Liu; Hanhan, Lu; Yuan, Huang

    2016-02-01

    A threshold-voltage model for a stacked high-k gate dielectric GaAs MOSFET is established by solving a two-dimensional Poisson's equation in channel and considering the short-channel, DIBL and quantum effects. The simulated results are in good agreement with the Silvaco TCAD data, confirming the correctness and validity of the model. Using the model, impacts of structural and physical parameters of the stack high-k gate dielectric on the threshold-voltage shift and the temperature characteristics of the threshold voltage are investigated. The results show that the stacked gate dielectric structure can effectively suppress the fringing-field and DIBL effects and improve the threshold and temperature characteristics, and on the other hand, the influence of temperature on the threshold voltage is overestimated if the quantum effect is ignored. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61176100).

  1. Data-Driven Jump Detection Thresholds for Application in Jump Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Davies

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a method to select the threshold in threshold-based jump detection methods. The method is motivated by an analysis of threshold-based jump detection methods in the context of jump-diffusion models. We show that over the range of sampling frequencies a researcher is most likely to encounter that the usual in-fill asymptotics provide a poor guide for selecting the jump threshold. Because of this we develop a sample-based method. Our method estimates the number of jumps over a grid of thresholds and selects the optimal threshold at what we term the ‘take-off’ point in the estimated number of jumps. We show that this method consistently estimates the jumps and their indices as the sampling interval goes to zero. In several Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method based on its ability to accurately locate jumps and its ability to distinguish between true jumps and large diffusive moves. In one of these Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method in a jump regression context. Finally, we apply our method in two empirical studies. In one we estimate the number of jumps and report the jump threshold our method selects for three commonly used market indices. In the other empirical application we perform a series of jump regressions using our method to select the jump threshold.

  2. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  3. Stimulated Brillouin scattering threshold in fiber amplifiers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Liping; Chang Liping

    2011-01-01

    Based on the wave coupling theory and the evolution model of the critical pump power (or Brillouin threshold) for stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) in double-clad fiber amplifiers, the influence of signal bandwidth, fiber-core diameter and amplifier gain on SBS threshold is simulated theoretically. And experimental measurements of SBS are presented in ytterbium-doped double-clad fiber amplifiers with single-frequency hundred nanosecond pulse amplification. Under different input signal pulses, the forward amplified pulse distortion is observed when the pulse energy is up to 660 nJ and the peak power is up to 3.3 W in the pulse amplification with pulse duration of 200 ns and repetition rate of 1 Hz. And the backward SBS narrow pulse appears. The pulse peak power equals to SBS threshold. Good agreement is shown between the modeled and experimental data. (authors)

  4. Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Xubin

    2017-01-01

    There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

  5. Interaction of radon and smoking among Czech uranium miners using model of a threshold energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehm, R.; Holy, K.; Sedlak, A.

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to radon and smoking are among the most important factors influencing the risk of lung cancer. However, the joint effect of radon and smoking has not been sufficiently investigated so far. In this paper we will try to describe by means of a threshold energy model the mechanism of synergic effect of the aforementioned factors, and compare their influence on the risk of lung cancer. The model is based on the assumption that the inactivation of cells is caused by the excess of threshold specific energy z0 in the sensitive volume of the cell. Cigarette smoking causes, among others, an increase in the synthesis of the survivin protein that protects cells from apoptosis and thereby reduces their radiosensitivity. Survivin is therefore responsible for the increase of threshold energy z0, which in turn leads to the increase of lung cancer risk. A linear relationship between the threshold energy and the number of cigarettes smoked was assumed. The effect of smoking on radon exposure was evaluated for various groups of smokers that were defined by the degree of morphometric and geometric changes in the lungs induced by smoking and various degrees of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We simulate various scenarios of irradiation - short-term exposure, long-term exposure, as well as various smoking habits - smoker, ex-smoker. The calculated values can be, to an extent, compared to the epidemiological analysis geometric mixture models of Tomasek, who statistically evaluated epidemiological data about lung cancer occurrence among miners working in Jachymov and Pribram mines. From the results it follows that the correlation coefficient was particularly high. Although the approach outlined in this paper is only one of the many that strive to describe in detail the synergic effect of smoking and exposition, the used model can contribute to a more precise estimate of lung cancer risk in areas with various smoking habits. (authors)

  6. Study of Heat Flux Threshold and Perturbation Effect on Transport Barrier Formation Based on Bifurcation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatthong, B.; Onjun, T.; Imbeaux, F.; Sarazin, Y.; Strugarek, A.; Picha, R.; Poolyarat, N.

    2011-06-01

    Full text: Formation of transport barrier in fusion plasma is studied using a simple one-field bistable S-curve bifurcation model. This model is characterized by an S-line with two stable branches corresponding to the low (L) and high (H) confinement modes, connected by an unstable branch. Assumptions used in this model are such that the reduction in anomalous transport is caused by v E velocity shear effect and also this velocity shear is proportional to pressure gradient. In this study, analytical and numerical approaches are used to obtain necessary conditions for transport barrier formation, i.e. the ratio of anomalous over neoclassical coefficients and heat flux thresholds which must be exceeded. Several profiles of heat sources are considered in this work including constant, Gaussian, and hyperbolic tangent forms. Moreover, the effect of perturbation in heat flux is investigated with respect to transport barrier formation

  7. Threshold law for electron impact ionization in the model of Temkin and Poet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macek, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    The angle-Sturmian theory is used to derive the threshold law for ionization of atomic hydrogen by electron impact in the model of Temkin and Poet. In this model, the exact electron-electron interaction is replaced by its monopole term. As for Wannier's theory with the real interaction, ionization occurs only for electrons that start out nearly equidistant from the proton. Because there is a high propensity for one electron to be captured into a bound state, ionization is strongly suppressed, giving rise to a threshold law of the form σ ∝ exp[-aE -1/6 + bE 1/6 ], where a and b are constants. The exponential law appears to be the quantal counterpart of the classical offset of the ionization threshold. Relative energy distribution are computed and found to favor configurations with unequal energy sharing

  8. A rule based method for context sensitive threshold segmentation in SPECT using simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, John S.; Alaamer, Abdulaziz S.

    1998-01-01

    Robust techniques for automatic or semi-automatic segmentation of objects in single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) are still the subject of development. This paper describes a threshold based method which uses empirical rules derived from analysis of computer simulated images of a large number of objects. The use of simulation allowed the factors affecting the threshold which correctly segmented objects to be investigated systematically. Rules could then be derived from these data to define the threshold in any particular context. The technique operated iteratively and calculated local context sensitive thresholds along radial profiles from the centre of gravity of the object. It was evaluated in a further series of simulated objects and in human studies, and compared to the use of a global fixed threshold. The method was capable of improving accuracy of segmentation and volume assessment compared to the global threshold technique. The improvements were greater for small volumes, shapes with large surface area to volume ratio, variable surrounding activity and non-uniform distributions. The method was applied successfully to simulated objects and human studies and is considered to be a significant advance on global fixed threshold techniques. (author)

  9. Population-based contracting (population health): part II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacofsky, D J

    2017-11-01

    Modern healthcare contracting is shifting the responsibility for improving quality, enhancing community health and controlling the total cost of care for patient populations from payers to providers. Population-based contracting involves capitated risk taken across an entire population, such that any included services within the contract are paid for by the risk-bearing entity throughout the term of the agreement. Under such contracts, a risk-bearing entity, which may be a provider group, a hospital or another payer, administers the contract and assumes risk for contractually defined services. These contracts can be structured in various ways, from professional fee capitation to full global per member per month diagnosis-based risk. The entity contracting with the payer must have downstream network contracts to provide the care and facilities that it has agreed to provide. Population health is a very powerful model to reduce waste and costs. It requires a deep understanding of the nuances of such contracting and the appropriate infrastructure to manage both networks and risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1431-4. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  10. Threshold quantum cryptograph based on Grover's algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Jianzhong; Qin Sujuan; Wen Qiaoyan; Zhu Fuchen

    2007-01-01

    We propose a threshold quantum protocol based on Grover's operator and permutation operator on one two-qubit signal. The protocol is secure because the dishonest parties can only extract 2 bits from 3 bits information of operation on one two-qubit signal while they have to introduce error probability 3/8. The protocol includes a detection scheme to resist Trojan horse attack. With probability 1/2, the detection scheme can detect a multi-qubit signal that is used to replace a single-qubit signal, while it makes every legitimate qubit invariant

  11. Assessment and Mmanagement of North American horseshoe crab populations, with emphasis on a multispecies framework for Delaware Bay, U.S.A. populations: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Michael J.; Sweka, John A.; McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David R.

    2015-01-01

    The horseshoe crab fishery on the US Atlantic coast represents a compelling fishery management story for many reasons, including ecological complexity, health and human safety ramifications, and socio-economic conflicts. Knowledge of stock status and assessment and monitoring capabilities for the species have increased greatly in the last 15 years and permitted managers to make more informed harvest recommendations. Incorporating the bioenergetics needs of migratory shorebirds, which feed on horseshoe crab eggs, into the management framework for horseshoe crabs was identified as a goal, particularly in the Delaware Bay region where the birds and horseshoe crabs exhibit an important ecological interaction. In response, significant effort was invested in studying the population dynamics, migration ecology, and the ecologic relationship of a key migratory shorebird, the Red Knot, to horseshoe crabs. A suite of models was developed that linked Red Knot populations to horseshoe crab populations through a mass gain function where female spawning crab abundance determined what proportion of the migrating Red Knot population reached a critical body mass threshold. These models were incorporated in an adaptive management framework wherein optimal harvest decisions for horseshoe crab are recommended based on several resource-based and value-based variables and thresholds. The current adaptive framework represents a true multispecies management effort where additional data over time are employed to improve the predictive models and reduce parametric uncertainty. The possibility of increasing phenologic asynchrony between the two taxa in response to climate change presents a potential challenge to their ecologic interaction in Delaware Bay.

  12. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  13. Genetic evaluation of calf and heifer survival in Iranian Holstein cattle using linear and threshold models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forutan, M; Ansari Mahyari, S; Sargolzaei, M

    2015-02-01

    Calf and heifer survival are important traits in dairy cattle affecting profitability. This study was carried out to estimate genetic parameters of survival traits in female calves at different age periods, until nearly the first calving. Records of 49,583 female calves born during 1998 and 2009 were considered in five age periods as days 1-30, 31-180, 181-365, 366-760 and full period (day 1-760). Genetic components were estimated based on linear and threshold sire models and linear animal models. The models included both fixed effects (month of birth, dam's parity number, calving ease and twin/single) and random effects (herd-year, genetic effect of sire or animal and residual). Rates of death were 2.21, 3.37, 1.97, 4.14 and 12.4% for the above periods, respectively. Heritability estimates were very low ranging from 0.48 to 3.04, 0.62 to 3.51 and 0.50 to 4.24% for linear sire model, animal model and threshold sire model, respectively. Rank correlations between random effects of sires obtained with linear and threshold sire models and with linear animal and sire models were 0.82-0.95 and 0.61-0.83, respectively. The estimated genetic correlations between the five different periods were moderate and only significant for 31-180 and 181-365 (r(g) = 0.59), 31-180 and 366-760 (r(g) = 0.52), and 181-365 and 366-760 (r(g) = 0.42). The low genetic correlations in current study would suggest that survival at different periods may be affected by the same genes with different expression or by different genes. Even though the additive genetic variations of survival traits were small, it might be possible to improve these traits by traditional or genomic selection. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  14. Evaluation of the threshold trimming method for micro inertial fluidic switch based on electrowetting technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Liu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The switch based on electrowetting technology has the advantages of no moving part, low contact resistance, long life and adjustable acceleration threshold. The acceleration threshold of switch can be fine-tuned by adjusting the applied voltage. This paper is focused on the electrowetting properties of switch and the influence of microchannel structural parameters, applied voltage and droplet volume on acceleration threshold. In the presence of process errors of micro inertial fluidic switch and measuring errors of droplet volume, there is a deviation between test acceleration threshold and target acceleration threshold. Considering the process errors and measuring errors, worst-case analysis is used to analyze the influence of parameter tolerance on the acceleration threshold. Under worst-case condition the total acceleration threshold tolerance caused by various errors is 9.95%. The target acceleration threshold can be achieved by fine-tuning the applied voltage. The acceleration threshold trimming method of micro inertial fluidic switch is verified.

  15. High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

  16. Application of the predicted heat strain model in development of localized, threshold-based heat stress management guidelines for the construction industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlinson, Steve; Jia, Yunyan Andrea

    2014-04-01

    Existing heat stress risk management guidelines recommended by international standards are not practical for the construction industry which needs site supervision staff to make instant managerial decisions to mitigate heat risks. The ability of the predicted heat strain (PHS) model [ISO 7933 (2004). Ergonomics of the thermal environment analytical determination and interpretation of heat stress using calculation of the predicted heat strain. Geneva: International Standard Organisation] to predict maximum allowable exposure time (D lim) has now enabled development of localized, action-triggering and threshold-based guidelines for implementation by lay frontline staff on construction sites. This article presents a protocol for development of two heat stress management tools by applying the PHS model to its full potential. One of the tools is developed to facilitate managerial decisions on an optimized work-rest regimen for paced work. The other tool is developed to enable workers' self-regulation during self-paced work.

  17. Rainfall-induced landslides in Europe: hotspots and thresholds (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, J.; Jaedicke, C.; Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

    2010-12-01

    This contribution presents preliminary results of the European project SafeLand. SafeLand is a large-scale integrating collaborative research project on landslide risks in Europe, funded by the Seventh Framework Programme for research and technological development (FP7) of the European Commission. SafeLand was launched in May 2009 and will run for three years. The project team, which comprises 27 institutions from 12 European countries, is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) in Norway. SafeLand aims to develop and implement an integrated and comprehensive approach to help and guide decision-making in connection with mitigation of landslide risks. Quantifying the effects of global change (changes in demography and climate change) on evolution of landslide risk in Europe is one of the main goals of SafeLand. The methodologies are tested in selected hazard and risk "hotspots” in Europe, in turn improving knowledge, methodologies and integration strategies for the management of landslide risk. The present contribution is focused on two components of SafeLand: (1) the identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots and (2) the estimation and assessment of rainfall thresholds for triggering of landslides. Hotspots of landslide hazard and risk were identified by an objective GIS-based analysis. The results show clearly where landslide pose the largest hazard in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. In absolute numbers, Italy is the country with the highest amount of area and population exposed. Relative to absolute number of inhabitants and area, small alpine countries such as Lichtenstein and Montenegro score highest where as much as 40% of the population could be exposed. It is obvious that the type and quality of the input data are decisive for the quality of the results. Especially the estimation of extreme precipitation events needs improvement. These preliminary results are

  18. Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

  19. Model for next-to-leading order threshold resummed form factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aglietti, Ugo; Ricciardi, Giulia

    2004-01-01

    We present a model for next-to-leading order resummed threshold form factors based on a timelike coupling recently introduced in the framework of small x physics. Improved expressions for the form factors in N-space are obtained which are not plagued by Landau-pole singularities, as the included absorptive effects - usually neglected - act as regulators. The physical reason is that, because of faster decay of gluon jets, there is not enough resolution time to observe the Landau pole. Our form factors reduce to the standard ones when the absorptive parts related to the coupling are neglected. The inverse transform from N-space to x-space can be done directly without any prescription and we obtain analytical expressions for the form factors, which are well defined in all x-space

  20. Fatigue threshold studies in Fe, Fe-Si, and HSLA steel: Part II. thermally activated behavior of the effective stress intensity at threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, W.; Esaklul, K.; Gerberich, W. W.

    1984-05-01

    It is shown that closure mechanisms alone cannot fully explain increasing fatigue thresholds with decreasing test temperature for a sequence of Fe-Si binary alloys and an HSLA steel. Implications are that fatigue crack propagation near threshold is a thermally activated process. The effective threshold stress intensity, which was obtained by subtracting the closure portion from the fatigue threshold, was examined. This effective stress intensity was found to correlate very well to the thermal component of the flow stress. A detailed fractographic study of the fatigue surface was performed. Water vapor in the room air was found to promote the formation of oxide and intergranular crack growth. At lower temperature, a brittle-type cyclic cleavage fatigue surface was observed but the ductile process persisted even at 123 K. Arrest marks were found on all three modes of fatigue crack growth. The regular spacings between these lines and dislocation modeling suggested that fatigue crack growth was controlled by the subcell structure near threshold. A model based on the slip-off of dislocations was examined. From this, it is shown that the effective fatigue threshold may be related to the square root of (one plus the strain rate sensitivity).

  1. Updated ultrasound criteria for polycystic ovary syndrome: reliable thresholds for elevated follicle population and ovarian volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lujan, Marla E; Jarrett, Brittany Y; Brooks, Eric D; Reines, Jonathan K; Peppin, Andrew K; Muhn, Narry; Haider, Ehsan; Pierson, Roger A; Chizen, Donna R

    2013-05-01

    Do the ultrasonographic criteria for polycystic ovaries supported by the 2003 Rotterdam consensus adequately discriminate between the normal and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) condition in light of recent advancements in imaging technology and reliable methods for estimating follicle populations in PCOS? Using newer ultrasound technology and a reliable grid system approach to count follicles, we concluded that a substantially higher threshold of follicle counts throughout the entire ovary (FNPO)-26 versus 12 follicles-is required to distinguish among women with PCOS and healthy women from the general population. The Rotterdam consensus defined the polycystic ovary as having 12 or more follicles, measuring between 2 and 9 mm (FNPO), and/or an ovarian volume (OV) >10 cm(3). Since their initial proposal in 2003, a heightened prevalence of polycystic ovaries has been described in healthy women with regular menstrual cycles, which has questioned the accuracy of these criteria and marginalized the specificity of polycystic ovaries as a diagnostic criterion for PCOS. A diagnostic test study was performed using cross-sectional data, collected from 2006 to 2011, from 168 women prospectively evaluated by transvaginal ultrasonography. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to determine the appropriate diagnostic thresholds for: (i) FNPO, (ii) follicle counts in a single cross section (FNPS) and (iii) OV. The levels of intra- and inter-observer reliability when five observers used the proposed criteria on 100 ultrasound cases were also determined. Ninety-eight women diagnosed with PCOS by the National Institutes of Health criteria as having both oligo-amenorrhea and hyperandrogenism and 70 healthy female volunteers recruited from the general population. Participants were evaluated by transvaginal ultrasonography at the Royal University Hospital within the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of Saskatchewan

  2. A curve of thresholds governs plague epizootics in Central Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijniers, Jonas; Davis, Stephen; Begon, Mike

    2012-01-01

    , it is common to assume a threshold defined by the ratio of vector and host abundances. Here, we show in contrast, both from field data and model simulations, that for plague (Yersinia pestis) in Kazakhstan, the invasion threshold quantity is based on the product of its host (Rhombomys opimus) and vector...

  3. Comparative Study of Retinal Vessel Segmentation Based on Global Thresholding Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Mapayi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to noise from uneven contrast and illumination during acquisition process of retinal fundus images, the use of efficient preprocessing techniques is highly desirable to produce good retinal vessel segmentation results. This paper develops and compares the performance of different vessel segmentation techniques based on global thresholding using phase congruency and contrast limited adaptive histogram equalization (CLAHE for the preprocessing of the retinal images. The results obtained show that the combination of preprocessing technique, global thresholding, and postprocessing techniques must be carefully chosen to achieve a good segmentation performance.

  4. The Threshold of a Stochastic SIRS Model with Vertical Transmission and Saturated Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunjuan Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The threshold of a stochastic SIRS model with vertical transmission and saturated incidence is investigated. If the noise is small, it is shown that the threshold of the stochastic system determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic. In addition, we find that if the noise is large, the epidemic still prevails. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the results.

  5. Optimal control and stability analysis of an epidemic model with population dispersal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jana, Soovoojeet; Haldar, Palash; Kar, T.K.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • SEIR type epidemic model with population dispersal is considered here. • Vaccination is taken as a control parameter. • Optimal control problem is formulated and then solved. • Simulation shows that different diseases can be analyzed through this model. - Abstract: In the present paper we consider an SEIR type epidemic model with transport related infection between two cities. It is observed that transportation among regions has a strong impact on the dynamic evolution of a disease which can be eradicated in the absence of transportation. Transportation can lead to the incorporation of a positive risk probability. The epidemiological threshold, commonly known as the basic reproduction number, is derived and it is observed that when the basic reproduction number is less than unity the disease dies out, where as if it exceeds unity the disease may persist in the system. A thorough dynamical behavior of the constructed model is studied. We formulate and solve an optimal control problem using vaccination as a control tool. Extensive numerical simulations are carried out based on our analytical results. Finally we try to relate our work with a real world problem.

  6. Threshold law for the triplet state for electron-impact ionization in the Temkin-Poet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ihra, W.; Mota-Furtado, F.; OMahony, P.F.; Macek, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    We derive the analytical threshold behavior for the triplet cross section for electron-impact ionization in the Temkin-Poet model. The analytical results indicate that the most recent numerical calculations may fail to reproduce the correct threshold behavior in an energy regime below about E=0.1 a.u. We also present an analytical expression for the energy distribution of the two electrons near threshold. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  7. Agile Model Driven Development of Electronic Health Record-Based Specialty Population Registries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Vaishnavi; Fish, Jason C.; Willett, DuWayne L.

    2018-01-01

    The transformation of the American healthcare payment system from fee-for-service to value-based care increasingly makes it valuable to develop patient registries for specialized populations, to better assess healthcare quality and costs. Recent widespread adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in the U.S. now makes possible construction of EHR-based specialty registry data collection tools and reports, previously unfeasible using manual chart abstraction. But the complexities of specialty registry EHR tools and measures, along with the variety of stakeholders involved, can result in misunderstood requirements and frequent product change requests, as users first experience the tools in their actual clinical workflows. Such requirements churn could easily stall progress in specialty registry rollout. Modeling a system’s requirements and solution design can be a powerful way to remove ambiguities, facilitate shared understanding, and help evolve a design to meet newly-discovered needs. “Agile Modeling” retains these values while avoiding excessive unused up-front modeling in favor of iterative incremental modeling. Using Agile Modeling principles and practices, in calendar year 2015 one institution developed 58 EHR-based specialty registries, with 111 new data collection tools, supporting 134 clinical process and outcome measures, and enrolling over 16,000 patients. The subset of UML and non-UML models found most consistently useful in designing, building, and iteratively evolving EHR-based specialty registries included User Stories, Domain Models, Use Case Diagrams, Decision Trees, Graphical User Interface Storyboards, Use Case text descriptions, and Solution Class Diagrams. PMID:29750222

  8. Evidence accumulator or decision threshold - which cortical mechanism are we observing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick eSimen

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Most psychological models of perceptual decision making are of the accumulation-to-threshold variety. The neural basis of accumulation in parietal and prefrontal cortex is therefore a topic of great interest in neuroscience. In contrast, threshold mechanisms have received less attention, and their neural basis has usually been sought in subcortical structures. Here I analyze a model of a decision threshold that can be implemented in the same cortical areas as evidence accumulators, and whose behavior bears on two open questions in decision neuroscience: 1 When ramping activity is observed in a brain region during decision making, does it reflect evidence accumulation? 2 Are changes in speed-accuracy tradeoffs and response biases more likely to be achieved by changes in thresholds, or in accumulation rates and starting points? The analysis suggests that task-modulated ramping activity, by itself, is weak evidence that a brain area mediates evidence accumulation as opposed to threshold readout; and that signs of modulated accumulation are as likely to indicate threshold adaptation as adaptation of starting points and accumulation rates. These conclusions imply that how thresholds are modeled can dramatically impact accumulator-based interpretations of this data.

  9. Cost effectiveness of population based BRCA1 founder mutation testing in Sephardi Jewish women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Shreeya; Legood, Rosa; Evans, D Gareth; Turnbull, Clare; Antoniou, Antonis C; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Manchanda, Ranjit

    2018-04-01

    Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 founder-mutation testing has been demonstrated as cost effective compared with family history based testing in Ashkenazi Jewish women. However, only 1 of the 3 Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1/BRCA2 founder mutations (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), 5382insC[c.5266dupC]), and 6174delT[c.5946delT]) is found in the Sephardi Jewish population (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), and the overall prevalence of BRCA mutations in the Sephardi Jewish population is accordingly lower (0.7% compared with 2.5% in the Ashkenazi Jewish population). Cost-effectiveness analyses of BRCA testing have not previously been performed at these lower BRCA prevalence levels seen in the Sephardi Jewish population. Here we present a cost-effectiveness analysis for UK and US populations comparing population testing with clinical criteria/family history-based testing in Sephardi Jewish women. A Markov model was built comparing the lifetime costs and effects of population-based BRCA1 testing, with testing using family history-based clinical criteria in Sephardi Jewish women aged ≥30 years. BRCA1 carriers identified were offered magnetic resonance imaging/mammograms and risk-reducing surgery. Costs are reported at 2015 prices. Outcomes include breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and excess deaths from heart disease. All costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon is lifetime, and perspective is payer. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population testing resulted in gain in life expectancy of 12 months (quality-adjusted life-year = 1.00). The baseline discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for UK population-based testing was £67.04/quality-adjusted life-year and for US population was $308.42/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were robust in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 100% of

  10. A non-parametric framework for estimating threshold limit values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulm Kurt

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To estimate a threshold limit value for a compound known to have harmful health effects, an 'elbow' threshold model is usually applied. We are interested on non-parametric flexible alternatives. Methods We describe how a step function model fitted by isotonic regression can be used to estimate threshold limit values. This method returns a set of candidate locations, and we discuss two algorithms to select the threshold among them: the reduced isotonic regression and an algorithm considering the closed family of hypotheses. We assess the performance of these two alternative approaches under different scenarios in a simulation study. We illustrate the framework by analysing the data from a study conducted by the German Research Foundation aiming to set a threshold limit value in the exposure to total dust at workplace, as a causal agent for developing chronic bronchitis. Results In the paper we demonstrate the use and the properties of the proposed methodology along with the results from an application. The method appears to detect the threshold with satisfactory success. However, its performance can be compromised by the low power to reject the constant risk assumption when the true dose-response relationship is weak. Conclusion The estimation of thresholds based on isotonic framework is conceptually simple and sufficiently powerful. Given that in threshold value estimation context there is not a gold standard method, the proposed model provides a useful non-parametric alternative to the standard approaches and can corroborate or challenge their findings.

  11. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dressler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  12. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  13. Threshold-adaptive canny operator based on cross-zero points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Boqi; Zhang, Xiuhua; Hong, Hanyu

    2018-03-01

    Canny edge detection[1] is a technique to extract useful structural information from different vision objects and dramatically reduce the amount of data to be processed. It has been widely applied in various computer vision systems. There are two thresholds have to be settled before the edge is segregated from background. Usually, by the experience of developers, two static values are set as the thresholds[2]. In this paper, a novel automatic thresholding method is proposed. The relation between the thresholds and Cross-zero Points is analyzed, and an interpolation function is deduced to determine the thresholds. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method and advantageous for stable edge detection at changing illumination.

  14. Towards a unifying basis of auditory thresholds: binaural summation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, Peter

    2014-04-01

    Absolute auditory threshold decreases with increasing sound duration, a phenomenon explainable by the assumptions that the sound evokes neural events whose probabilities of occurrence are proportional to the sound's amplitude raised to an exponent of about 3 and that a constant number of events are required for threshold (Heil and Neubauer, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:6151-6156, 2003). Based on this probabilistic model and on the assumption of perfect binaural summation, an equation is derived here that provides an explicit expression of the binaural threshold as a function of the two monaural thresholds, irrespective of whether they are equal or unequal, and of the exponent in the model. For exponents >0, the predicted binaural advantage is largest when the two monaural thresholds are equal and decreases towards zero as the monaural threshold difference increases. This equation is tested and the exponent derived by comparing binaural thresholds with those predicted on the basis of the two monaural thresholds for different values of the exponent. The thresholds, measured in a large sample of human subjects with equal and unequal monaural thresholds and for stimuli with different temporal envelopes, are compatible only with an exponent close to 3. An exponent of 3 predicts a binaural advantage of 2 dB when the two ears are equally sensitive. Thus, listening with two (equally sensitive) ears rather than one has the same effect on absolute threshold as doubling duration. The data suggest that perfect binaural summation occurs at threshold and that peripheral neural signals are governed by an exponent close to 3. They might also shed new light on mechanisms underlying binaural summation of loudness.

  15. A threshold analysis of the cost-effectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapies in sub-saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Paul G; Morel, Chantal; Shillcutt, Sam; Goodman, Catherine; Mills, Anne J

    2004-08-01

    Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are generally regarded as vital in addressing the growing problem posed by the development of antimalarial resistance across sub-Saharan Africa. However, the costs of the new ACTs are likely to be significantly higher than current therapies. Therefore, it is important to examine formally the cost-effectiveness of the more effective yet more expensive ACTs before advocating a switch in policy. Importantly, any such economic evaluation must consider the temporal dynamics of drug resistance, and not just focus on the static question of whether switching today would be cost-effective at current levels of resistance, particularly since the development of new antimalarials in the future is so uncertain. However, predicting the future changes in drug resistance is a major difficulty in accurately quantifying the relative costs and health outcomes associated with different drug therapies over time. Here, we use a simple decision tree model to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of using ACTs, compared with persisting with current therapies, over 5-, 10-, and 15-year periods. We describe the dynamics of drug resistance using a general logistic growth function, in which the starting frequency of resistance and maximum growth may be altered. However, rather than make assumptions about the absolute rate at which resistance to ACTs will progress, we allow the ratio of the growth rate of resistance to ACTs relative to that of current therapies to vary. Defining the growth rate of ACT resistance in this manner allows us to calculate the threshold ratio at which ACTs would no longer appear cost-effective, for any starting conditions of resistance to current therapies and ACTs, and over any time period. The influence of uncertainty in other decision tree parameters on the threshold ratio values is also quantified, using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. This analysis shows that ACTs are more than 95% likely to be cost

  16. Low level radiation: how does the linear without threshold model provide the safety of Canadian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2010-01-01

    The linear without threshold model is a model of risk used worldwide by the most of health organisms of nuclear regulation in order to establish dose limits for workers and public. It is in the heart of the approach adopted by the Canadian commission of nuclear safety (C.C.S.N.) in matter of radiation protection. The linear without threshold model presumes reasonably it exists a direct link between radiation exposure and cancer rate. It does not exist scientific evidence that chronicle exposure to radiation doses under 100 milli sievert (mSv) leads harmful effects on health. Several scientific reports highlighted scientific evidences that seem indicate a low level of radiation is less harmful than the linear without threshold predicts. As the linear without threshold model presumes that any radiation exposure brings risks, the ALARA principle obliges the licensees to get the radiation exposure at the lowest reasonably achievable level, social and economical factors taken into account. ALARA principle constitutes a basic principle in the C.C.S.N. approach in matter of radiation protection; On the radiation protection plan, C.C.S.N. gets a careful approach that allows to provide health and safety of Canadian people and the protection of their environment. (N.C.)

  17. Design of Threshold Controller Based Chaotic Circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohamed, I. Raja; Murali, K.; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2010-01-01

    We propose a very simple implementation of a second-order nonautonomous chaotic oscillator, using a threshold controller as the only source of nonlinearity. We demonstrate the efficacy and simplicity of our design through numerical and experimental results. Further, we show that this approach...... of using a threshold controller as a nonlinear element, can be extended to obtain autonomous and multiscroll chaotic attractor circuits as well....

  18. Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of a population-based screening program for colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pil, L; Fobelets, M; Putman, K; Trybou, J; Annemans, L

    2016-07-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading causes of cancer mortality in Belgium. In Flanders (Belgium), a population-based screening program with a biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) in women and men aged 56-74 has been organised since 2013. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the colorectal population-based screening program in Flanders (Belgium). A health economic model was conducted, consisting of a decision tree simulating the screening process and a Markov model, with a time horizon of 20years, simulating natural progression. Predicted mortality and incidence, total costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with and without the screening program were calculated in order to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CRC screening. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted, taking into account uncertainty of the model parameters. Mortality and incidence were predicted to decrease over 20years. The colorectal screening program in Flanders is found to be cost-effective with an ICER of 1681/QALY (95% CI -1317 to 6601) in males and €4,484/QALY (95% CI -3254 to 18,163). The probability of being cost-effective given a threshold of €35,000/QALY was 100% and 97.3%, respectively. The budget impact analysis showed the extra cost for the health care payer to be limited. This health economic analysis has shown that despite the possible adverse effects of screening and the extra costs for the health care payer and the patient, the population-based screening program for CRC in Flanders is cost-effective and should therefore be maintained. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. On the renewal risk model under a threshold strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yinghui; Wang, Guojing; Yuen, Kam C.

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, we consider the renewal risk process under a threshold dividend payment strategy. For this model, the expected discounted dividend payments and the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function are investigated. Integral equations, integro-differential equations and some closed form expressions for them are derived. When the claims are exponentially distributed, it is verified that the expected penalty of the deficit at ruin is proportional to the ruin probability.

  20. a Threshold-Free Filtering Algorithm for Airborne LIDAR Point Clouds Based on Expectation-Maximization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Z.; Cheng, P.; Ziggah, Y. Y.; Nie, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Filtering is a key step for most applications of airborne LiDAR point clouds. Although lots of filtering algorithms have been put forward in recent years, most of them suffer from parameters setting or thresholds adjusting, which will be time-consuming and reduce the degree of automation of the algorithm. To overcome this problem, this paper proposed a threshold-free filtering algorithm based on expectation-maximization. The proposed algorithm is developed based on an assumption that point clouds are seen as a mixture of Gaussian models. The separation of ground points and non-ground points from point clouds can be replaced as a separation of a mixed Gaussian model. Expectation-maximization (EM) is applied for realizing the separation. EM is used to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture parameters. Using the estimated parameters, the likelihoods of each point belonging to ground or object can be computed. After several iterations, point clouds can be labelled as the component with a larger likelihood. Furthermore, intensity information was also utilized to optimize the filtering results acquired using the EM method. The proposed algorithm was tested using two different datasets used in practice. Experimental results showed that the proposed method can filter non-ground points effectively. To quantitatively evaluate the proposed method, this paper adopted the dataset provided by the ISPRS for the test. The proposed algorithm can obtain a 4.48 % total error which is much lower than most of the eight classical filtering algorithms reported by the ISPRS.

  1. Thresholds, injury, and loss relationships for thrips in Phleum pratense (Poales: Poaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisig, Dominic D; Godfrey, Larry D; Marcum, Daniel B

    2009-12-01

    Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is an important forage crop in many Western U.S. states. Marketing of timothy hay is primarily based on esthetics, and green color is an important attribute. The objective of these studies was to determine a relationship between arthropod populations, yield, and esthetic injury in timothy. Economic injury levels (EILs) and economic thresholds were calculated based on these relationships. Thrips (Thripidae) numbers were manipulated with insecticides in small plot studies in 2006, 2007, and 2008, although tetranychid mite levels were incidentally flared by cyfluthrin in some experiments. Arthropod population densities were determined weekly, and yield and esthetic injury were measured at each harvest. Effects of arthropods on timothy were assessed using multilinear regression. Producers were also surveyed to relate economic loss from leaf color to the injury ratings for use in establishing EILs. Thrips population levels were significantly related to yield loss in only one of nine experiments. Thrips population levels were significantly related to injury once before the first annual harvest and twice before the second. Thrips were the most important pest in these experiments, and they were more often related to esthetic injury rather than yield loss. EILs and economic thresholds for thrips population levels were established using esthetic injury data. These results document the first example of a significant relationship between arthropod pest population levels and economic yield and quality losses in timothy.

  2. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  3. Load management: Model-based control of aggregate power for populations of thermostatically controlled loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perfumo, Cristian; Kofman, Ernesto; Braslavsky, Julio H.; Ward, John K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Characterisation of power response of a population of air conditioners. ► Implementation of demand side management on a group of air conditioners. ► Design of a controller for the power output of a group of air conditioners. ► Quantification of comfort impact of demand side management. - Abstract: Large groups of electrical loads can be controlled as a single entity to reduce their aggregate power demand in the electricity network. This approach, known as load management (LM) or demand response, offers an alternative to the traditional paradigm in the electricity market, where matching supply and demand is achieved solely by regulating how much generation is dispatched. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), such as air conditioners (ACs) and fridges, are particularly suitable for LM, which can be implemented using feedback control techniques to regulate their aggregate power. To achieve high performance, such feedback control techniques require an accurate mathematical model of the TCL aggregate dynamics. Although such models have been developed, they appear too complex to be effectively used in control design. In this paper we develop a mathematical model aimed at the design of a model-based feedback control strategy. The proposed model analytically characterises the aggregate power response of a population of ACs to a simultaneous step change in temperature set points. Based on this model, we then derive, and completely parametrise in terms of the ACs ensemble properties, a reduced-order mathematical model to design an internal-model controller that regulates aggregate power by broadcasting temperature set-point offset changes. The proposed controller achieves high LM performance provided the ACs are equipped with high resolution thermostats. With coarser resolution thermostats, which are typical in present commercial and residential ACs, performance deteriorates significantly. This limitation is overcome by subdividing the population

  4. Holes in the Bathtub: Water Table Dependent Services and Threshold Behavior in an Economic Model of Groundwater Extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk-lawlor, N. E.; Edwards, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    In many groundwater systems, the height of the water table must be above certain thresholds for some types of surface flow to exist. Examples of flows that depend on water table elevation include groundwater baseflow to river systems, groundwater flow to wetland systems, and flow to springs. Meeting many of the goals of sustainable water resource management requires maintaining these flows at certain rates. Water resource management decisions invariably involve weighing tradeoffs between different possible usage regimes and the economic consequences of potential management choices are an important factor in these tradeoffs. Policies based on sustainability may have a social cost from forgoing present income. This loss of income may be worth bearing, but should be well understood and carefully considered. Traditionally, the economic theory of groundwater exploitation has relied on the assumption of a single-cell or "bathtub" aquifer model, which offers a simple means to examine complex interactions between water user and hydrologic system behavior. However, such a model assumes a closed system and does not allow for the simulation of groundwater outflows that depend on water table elevation (e.g. baseflow, springs, wetlands), even though those outflows have value. We modify the traditional single-cell aquifer model by allowing for outflows when the water table is above certain threshold elevations. These thresholds behave similarly to holes in a bathtub, where the outflow is a positive function of the height of the water table above the threshold and the outflow is lost when the water table drops below the threshold. We find important economic consequences to this representation of the groundwater system. The economic value of services provided by threshold-dependent outflows (including non-market value), such as ecosystem services, can be incorporated. The value of services provided by these flows may warrant maintaining the water table at higher levels than would

  5. A condition-based maintenance of a dependent degradation-threshold-shock model in a system with multiple degradation processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caballé, N.C.; Castro, I.T.; Pérez, C.J.; Lanza-Gutiérrez, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a condition-based maintenance strategy for a system subject to two dependent causes of failure: degradation and sudden shocks. The internal degradation is reflected by the presence of multiple degradation processes in the system. Degradation processes start at random times following a Non-homogeneous Poisson process and their growths are modelled by using a gamma process. When the deterioration level of a degradation process exceeds a predetermined value, we assume that a degradation failure occurs. Furthermore, the system is subject to sudden shocks that arrive at the system following a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process. A sudden shock provokes the total breakdown of the system. Thus, the state of the system is evaluated at inspection times and different maintenance tasks can be carried out. If the system is still working at an inspection time, a preventive maintenance task is performed if the deterioration level of a degradation process exceeds a certain threshold. A corrective maintenance task is performed if the system is down at an inspection time. A preventive (corrective) maintenance task implies the replacement of the system by a new one. Under this maintenance strategy, the expected cost rate function is obtained. A numerical example illustrates the analytical results. - Highlights: • A condition-based maintenance model is proposed. • Two dependent causes of failure are considered: deterioration and external shocks. • Deterioration is given by multiple degradation processes growing by a gamma process. • The initiation of degradation processes follows a Non-homogeneous Poisson process. • External shocks arrive at the system by using a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process

  6. Effect of thermal insulation on the electrical characteristics of NbOx threshold switches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ziwen; Kumar, Suhas; Wong, H.-S. Philip; Nishi, Yoshio

    2018-02-01

    Threshold switches based on niobium oxide (NbOx) are promising candidates as bidirectional selector devices in crossbar memory arrays and building blocks for neuromorphic computing. Here, it is experimentally demonstrated that the electrical characteristics of NbOx threshold switches can be tuned by engineering the thermal insulation. Increasing the thermal insulation by ˜10× is shown to produce ˜7× reduction in threshold current and ˜45% reduction in threshold voltage. The reduced threshold voltage leads to ˜5× reduction in half-selection leakage, which highlights the effectiveness of reducing half-selection leakage of NbOx selectors by engineering the thermal insulation. A thermal feedback model based on Poole-Frenkel conduction in NbOx can explain the experimental results very well, which also serves as a piece of strong evidence supporting the validity of the Poole-Frenkel based mechanism in NbOx threshold switches.

  7. A software tool to model genetic regulatory networks. Applications to the modeling of threshold phenomena and of spatial patterning in Drosophila.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Dilão

    Full Text Available We present a general methodology in order to build mathematical models of genetic regulatory networks. This approach is based on the mass action law and on the Jacob and Monod operon model. The mathematical models are built symbolically by the Mathematica software package GeneticNetworks. This package accepts as input the interaction graphs of the transcriptional activators and repressors of a biological process and, as output, gives the mathematical model in the form of a system of ordinary differential equations. All the relevant biological parameters are chosen automatically by the software. Within this framework, we show that concentration dependent threshold effects in biology emerge from the catalytic properties of genes and its associated conservation laws. We apply this methodology to the segment patterning in Drosophila early development and we calibrate the genetic transcriptional network responsible for the patterning of the gap gene proteins Hunchback and Knirps, along the antero-posterior axis of the Drosophila embryo. In this approach, the zygotically produced proteins Hunchback and Knirps do not diffuse along the antero-posterior axis of the embryo of Drosophila, developing a spatial pattern due to concentration dependent thresholds. This shows that patterning at the gap genes stage can be explained by the concentration gradients along the embryo of the transcriptional regulators.

  8. Bioclimatic Thresholds, Thermal Constants and Survival of Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in Response to Constant Temperatures on Hibiscus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

    2013-01-01

    Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus ( Hibiscus rosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P . solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai’s linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P . solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P . solenopsis . The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P . solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P . solenopsis on its host plants. PMID:24086597

  9. Bioclimatic thresholds, thermal constants and survival of mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (hemiptera: pseudococcidae) in response to constant temperatures on hibiscus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

    2013-01-01

    Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus (Hibiscusrosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P. solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai's linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P. solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P. solenopsis. The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P. solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P. solenopsis on its host plants.

  10. [Threshold value for reimbursement of costs of new drugs: cost-effectiveness research and modelling are essential links].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederix, Geert W J; Hövels, Anke M; Severens, Johan L; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; Schellens, Jan H M

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing discussion in the Netherlands about the introduction of a threshold value for the costs per extra year of life when reimbursing costs of new drugs. The Medicines Committee ('Commissie Geneesmiddelen'), a division of the Netherlands National Healthcare Institute ('Zorginstituut Nederland'), advises on reimbursement of costs of new drugs. This advice is based upon the determination of therapeutic value of the drug and the results of economic evaluations. Mathematical models that predict future costs and effectiveness are often used in economic evaluations; these models can vary greatly in transparency and quality due to author assumptions. Standardisation of cost-effectiveness models is one solution to overcome the unwanted variation in quality. Discussions about the introduction of a threshold value can only be meaningful if all involved are adequately informed, and by high quality in cost-effectiveness research and, particularly, economic evaluations. Collaboration and discussion between medical specialists, patients or patient organisations, health economists and policy makers, both in development of methods and in standardisation, are essential to improve the quality of decision making.

  11. Does more energy consumption bolster economic growth? An application of the nonlinear threshold regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, B.-N.; Hwang, M.J.; Yang, C.W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper separates data extending from 1971 to 2002 into the energy crisis period (1971-1980) and the post-energy crisis period (1981-2000) for 82 countries. The cross-sectional data (yearly averages) in these two periods are used to investigate the nonlinear relationships between energy consumption growth and economic growth when threshold variables are used. If threshold variables are higher than certain optimal threshold levels, there is either no significant relationship or else a significant negative relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. However, when these threshold variables are lower than certain optimal levels, there is a significant positive relationship between the two. In 48 out of the 82 countries studied, none of the four threshold variables is found to be higher than the optimal levels. It is inferred that these 48 countries should adopt a more aggressive energy policy. As for the other 34 countries, at least one threshold variable is higher than the optimal threshold level and thus these countries should adopt energy policies with varying degrees of conservation based on the number of threshold variables that are higher than the optimal threshold levels

  12. Reference man models based on normal data from human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Gi-ichiro; Kawamura, Hisao

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative description of the physical, and metabolic parameters of the human body is the very basic for internal dosimetry. Compilation of anatomical and other types of data Asian populations for internal (and external) dosimetry is of grate significance because of the potential spread of nuclear energy use in the Asian region and the major contribution of the region to the world population (about 58%). It has been observed that some differences exist for habitat, race, body sizes and pattern of food consumption. In the early stage of revision of ICRP Reference man by the Task Group, Characteristics of the human body of non-European populations received considerable attention as well as those of the European populations of different sexes and ages. In this context, an IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program on Compilation of Anatomical, Physiological and Metabolic Characteristics for a Reference Asian Man endorsed. In later stages of reference Man revision, anatomical data for Asians was discusses together with those of European populations, presumably due to ICRP's decision of unanimous use of the Reference Man for radiation protection. Reference man models for adults and 15, 10, 5, 1, 0 year-old males and females of Asian populations were developed for use in internal and external dosimetry. Based on the concept of ICRP Reference Man (Publication 23), the reference values were derived from the normal organ mass data for Japanese and statistical data on the physique and nutrition of Japanese and Chinese. Also incorporated were variations in physical measurements, as observed in the above mentioned IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program. The work was partly carried out within the activities of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man. The weight of the skeleton was adjusted following the revised values in Publication 70. This paper will report basic shared and non-shared characteristics of Reference Man' for Asians and ICRP Reference Man. (author)

  13. A population-based Bayesian approach to the minimal model of glucose and insulin homeostasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Emil; Højbjerre, Malene

    2005-01-01

    -posed estimation problem, where the reconstruction most often has been done by non-linear least squares techniques separately for each entity. The minmal model was originally specified for a single individual and does not combine several individuals with the advantage of estimating the metabolic portrait...... to a population-based model. The estimation of the parameters are efficiently implemented in a Bayesian approach where posterior inference is made through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Hereby we obtain a powerful and flexible modelling framework for regularizing the ill-posed estimation problem...

  14. Time over threshold based multi-channel LuAG-APD PET detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazoe, Kenji; Orita, Tadashi; Nakamura, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Hiroyuki

    2013-01-01

    To achieve efficient signal processing, several time-based positron emission tomography (PET) systems using a large number of granulated gamma-ray detectors have recently been proposed. In this work described here, a 144-channel Pr:LuAG avalanche photodiode (APD) PET detector that uses time over threshold (ToT) and pulse train methods was designed and fabricated. The detector is composed of 12×12 Pr:LuAG crystals, each of which produces a 2 mm×2 mm×10 mm pixel individually coupled to a 12×12 APD array, which in turn is connected pixel-by-pixel with one channel of a time over threshold based application-specific integrated circuit (ToT-ASIC) that was designed and fabricated using a 0.25 μm 3.3 V Taiwan Semiconductor Company complementary metal oxide semiconductor (TSMC CMOS) process. The ToT outputs are connected through a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) to a data acquisition (DAQ) system. Three front-end ASIC boards—each incorporating a ToT-ASIC chip, threshold control digital-to-analog converters (DACs), and connectors, and dissipating power at about 230 mW per board—are used to read from the 144-channel LuAG-APD detector. All three boards are connected through an FPGA board that is programmed to calibrate the individual thresholds of the ToT circuits to allow digital multiplexing to form an integrated PET module with a measured timing resolution of 4.2 ns. Images transmitted by this PET system can be successfully acquired through collimation masks. As a further implementation of this technology, an animal PET system consisting of eight gamma pixel modules forming a ring is planned

  15. Multimodal distribution of human cold pain thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lötsch, Jörn; Dimova, Violeta; Lieb, Isabel; Zimmermann, Michael; Oertel, Bruno G; Ultsch, Alfred

    2015-01-01

    It is assumed that different pain phenotypes are based on varying molecular pathomechanisms. Distinct ion channels seem to be associated with the perception of cold pain, in particular TRPM8 and TRPA1 have been highlighted previously. The present study analyzed the distribution of cold pain thresholds with focus at describing the multimodality based on the hypothesis that it reflects a contribution of distinct ion channels. Cold pain thresholds (CPT) were available from 329 healthy volunteers (aged 18 - 37 years; 159 men) enrolled in previous studies. The distribution of the pooled and log-transformed threshold data was described using a kernel density estimation (Pareto Density Estimation (PDE)) and subsequently, the log data was modeled as a mixture of Gaussian distributions using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to optimize the fit. CPTs were clearly multi-modally distributed. Fitting a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to the log-transformed threshold data revealed that the best fit is obtained when applying a three-model distribution pattern. The modes of the identified three Gaussian distributions, retransformed from the log domain to the mean stimulation temperatures at which the subjects had indicated pain thresholds, were obtained at 23.7 °C, 13.2 °C and 1.5 °C for Gaussian #1, #2 and #3, respectively. The localization of the first and second Gaussians was interpreted as reflecting the contribution of two different cold sensors. From the calculated localization of the modes of the first two Gaussians, the hypothesis of an involvement of TRPM8, sensing temperatures from 25 - 24 °C, and TRPA1, sensing cold from 17 °C can be derived. In that case, subjects belonging to either Gaussian would possess a dominance of the one or the other receptor at the skin area where the cold stimuli had been applied. The findings therefore support a suitability of complex analytical approaches to detect mechanistically determined patterns from pain phenotype data.

  16. Two-dimensional threshold voltage model and design considerations for gate electrode work function engineered recessed channel nanoscale MOSFET: I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaujar, Rishu; Kaur, Ravneet; Gupta, Mridula; Gupta, R S; Saxena, Manoj

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses a threshold voltage model for novel device structure: gate electrode work function engineered recessed channel (GEWE-RC) nanoscale MOSFET, which combines the advantages of both RC and GEWE structures. In part I, the model accurately predicts (a) surface potential, (b) threshold voltage and (c) sub-threshold slope for single material gate recessed channel (SMG-RC) and GEWE-RC structures. Part II focuses on the development of compact analytical drain current model taking into account the transition regimes from sub-threshold to saturation. Furthermore, the drain conductance evaluation has also been obtained, reflecting relevance of the proposed device for analogue design. The analysis takes into account the effect of gate length and groove depth in order to develop a compact model suitable for device design. The analytical results predicted by the model confirm well with the simulated results. Results in part I also provide valuable design insights in the performance of nanoscale GEWE-RC MOSFET with optimum threshold voltage and negative junction depth (NJD), and hence serves as a tool to optimize important device and technological parameters for 40 nm technology

  17. A statistical framework for the validation of a population exposure model based on personal exposure data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Delphy; Valari, Myrto; Markakis, Konstantinos; Payan, Sébastien

    2016-04-01

    Currently, ambient pollutant concentrations at monitoring sites are routinely measured by local networks, such as AIRPARIF in Paris, France. Pollutant concentration fields are also simulated with regional-scale chemistry transport models such as CHIMERE (http://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere) under air-quality forecasting platforms (e.g. Prev'Air http://www.prevair.org) or research projects. These data may be combined with more or less sophisticated techniques to provide a fairly good representation of pollutant concentration spatial gradients over urban areas. Here we focus on human exposure to atmospheric contaminants. Based on census data on population dynamics and demographics, modeled outdoor concentrations and infiltration of outdoor air-pollution indoors we have developed a population exposure model for ozone and PM2.5. A critical challenge in the field of population exposure modeling is model validation since personal exposure data are expensive and therefore, rare. However, recent research has made low cost mobile sensors fairly common and therefore personal exposure data should become more and more accessible. In view of planned cohort field-campaigns where such data will be available over the Paris region, we propose in the present study a statistical framework that makes the comparison between modeled and measured exposures meaningful. Our ultimate goal is to evaluate the exposure model by comparing modeled exposures to monitor data. The scientific question we address here is how to downscale modeled data that are estimated on the county population scale at the individual scale which is appropriate to the available measurements. To assess this question we developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework that assimilates actual individual data into population statistics and updates the probability estimate.

  18. Threshold Signature Schemes Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Victorovna Beresneva

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to an investigation of threshold signature schemes. The systematization of the threshold signature schemes was done, cryptographic constructions based on interpolation Lagrange polynomial, elliptic curves and bilinear pairings were examined. Different methods of generation and verification of threshold signatures were explored, the availability of practical usage of threshold schemes in mobile agents, Internet banking and e-currency was shown. The topics of further investigation were given and it could reduce a level of counterfeit electronic documents signed by a group of users.

  19. Dynamic energy budget as a basis to model population-level effects of zinc-spiked sediments in the gastropod Valvata piscinalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Mons, Raphaël; Quéau, Hervé; Charles, Sandrine; Garric, Jeanne

    2007-08-01

    This paper presents original toxicity test designs and mathematical models that may be used to assess the deleterious effects of toxicants on Valvata piscinalis (Mollusca, Gastropoda). Results obtained for zinc, used as a reference toxicant, are presented. The feeding behavior, juvenile survival, growth, age at puberty, onset of reproduction, number of breedings during the life cycle, and fecundity were significantly altered when the snails were exposed to zinc-spiked sediments. Dynamic energy budget models (DEBtox) adequately predicted the effects of zinc on the V. piscinalis life cycle. They also provided estimates for lifecycle parameters that were used to parameterize a demographic model, based on a Z-transformed life-cycle graph. The effect threshold for the population growth rate (lambda) was estimated at 259 mg/kg dry sediment of zinc, showing that significant changes in abundance may occur at environmental concentrations. Significant effects occurring just above this threshold value were mainly caused by the severe impairment of reproductive endpoints. Sensitivity analysis showed that the value of lambda depended mainly on the juvenile survival rate. The impairment of this latter parameter may result in extinction of V. piscinalis. Finally, the present study highlights advantages of the proposed modeling approach in V. piscinalis and possible transfer to other test species and contaminants.

  20. Landslide triggering thresholds for Switzerland based on a new gridded precipitation dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.

    2017-04-01

    In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, ca. 520 M Euros) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. The prediction of landslide occurrence is particularly challenging because of their wide distribution in space and the complex interdependence of predisposing and triggering factors. The overall goal of our research is to develop an Early Warning System for landsliding in Switzerland based on hydrological modelling and rainfall forecasts. In order to achieve this, we first analyzed rainfall triggering thresholds for landslides from a new gridded daily precipitation dataset (RhiresD, MeteoSwiss) for Switzerland combined with landslide events recorded in the Swiss Damage Database (Hilker et al.,2009). The high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset allows us to collocate rainfall and landslides accurately in space, which is an advantage over many previous studies. Each of the 2272 landslides in the database in the period 1972-2012 was assigned to the corresponding 2x2 km precipitation cell. For each of these cells, precipitation events were defined as series of consecutive rainy days and the following event parameters were computed: duration (day), maximum and mean daily intensity (mm/day), total rainfall depth (mm) and maximum daily intensity divided by Mean Daily Precipitation (MDP). The events were classified as triggering or non-triggering depending on whether a landslide was recorded in the cell during the event. This classification of observations was compared to predictions based on a threshold for each of the parameters. The predictive power of each parameter and the best threshold value were quantified by ROC analysis and statistics such as AUC and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Event parameters based on rainfall intensity were found to have similarly high predictive power (TSS=0.54-0.59, AUC=0.85-0.86), while rainfall duration had a

  1. Conception, fabrication and characterization of a silicon based MEMS inertial switch with a threshold value of 5 g

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Fengtian; Wang, Chao; Yuan, Mingquan; Tang, Bin; Xiong, Zhuang

    2017-01-01

    Most of the MEMS inertial switches developed in recent years are intended for shock and impact sensing with a threshold value above 50 g. In order to follow the requirement of detecting linear acceleration signal at low- g level, a silicon based MEMS inertial switch with a threshold value of 5 g was designed, fabricated and characterized. The switch consisted of a large proof mass, supported by circular spiral springs. An analytical model of the structure stiffness of the proposed switch was derived and verified by finite-element simulation. The structure fabrication was based on a customized double-buried layer silicon-on-insulator wafer and encapsulated by glass wafers. The centrifugal experiment and nanoindentation experiment were performed to measure the threshold value as well as the structure stiffness. The actual threshold values were measured to be 0.1–0.3 g lower than the pre-designed value of 5 g due to the dimension loss during non-contact lithography processing. Concerning the reliability assessment, a series of environmental experiments were conducted and the switches remained operational without excessive errors. However, both the random vibration and the shock tests indicate that the metal particles generated during collision of contact parts might affect the contact reliability and long-time stability. According to the conclusion reached in this report, an attentive study on switch contact behavior should be included in future research. (paper)

  2. A score-statistic approach for determining threshold values in QTL mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Chen-Hung; Ho, Hsiang-An

    2012-06-01

    Issues in determining the threshold values of QTL mapping are often investigated for the backcross and F2 populations with relatively simple genome structures so far. The investigations of these issues in the progeny populations after F2 (advanced populations) with relatively more complicated genomes are generally inadequate. As these advanced populations have been well implemented in QTL mapping, it is important to address these issues for them in more details. Due to an increasing number of meiosis cycle, the genomes of the advanced populations can be very different from the backcross and F2 genomes. Therefore, special devices that consider the specific genome structures present in the advanced populations are required to resolve these issues. By considering the differences in genome structure between populations, we formulate more general score test statistics and gaussian processes to evaluate their threshold values. In general, we found that, given a significance level and a genome size, threshold values for QTL detection are higher in the denser marker maps and in the more advanced populations. Simulations were performed to validate our approach.

  3. Unidirectional threshold switching in Ag/Si-based electrochemical metallization cells for high-density bipolar RRAM applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Song, Bing; Li, Qingjiang; Zeng, Zhongming

    2018-03-01

    We herein present a novel unidirectional threshold selector for cross-point bipolar RRAM array. The proposed Ag/amorphous Si based threshold selector showed excellent threshold characteristics in positive field, such as high selectivity ( 105), steep slope (type RRAM. By integrating a bipolar RRAM device with the selector, experiments showed that the undesired sneak was significantly suppressed, indicating its potentiality for high-density integrated nonvolatile memory applications.

  4. High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2017-09-21

    Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Anderson, Gregory B.

    2016-01-01

    A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

  6. Thresholds of probable problematic gambling involvement for the German population: Results of the Pathological Gambling and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosowski, Tim; Hayer, Tobias; Meyer, Gerhard; Rumpf, Hans-Jürgen; John, Ulrich; Bischof, Anja; Meyer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Consumption measures in gambling research may help to establish thresholds of low-risk gambling as 1 part of evidence-based responsible gambling strategies. The aim of this study is to replicate existing Canadian thresholds of probable low-risk gambling (Currie et al., 2006) in a representative dataset of German gambling behavior (Pathological Gambling and Epidemiology [PAGE]; N = 15,023). Receiver-operating characteristic curves applied in a training dataset (60%) extracted robust thresholds of low-risk gambling across 4 nonexclusive definitions of gambling problems (1 + to 4 + Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition [DSM-5] Composite International Diagnostic Interview [CIDI] symptoms), different indicators of gambling involvement (across all game types; form-specific) and different timeframes (lifetime; last year). Logistic regressions applied in a test dataset (40%) to cross-validate the heuristics of probable low-risk gambling incorporated confounding covariates (age, gender, education, migration, and unemployment) and confirmed the strong concurrent validity of the thresholds. Moreover, it was possible to establish robust form-specific thresholds of low-risk gambling (only for gaming machines and poker). Possible implications for early detection of problem gamblers in offline or online environments are discussed. Results substantiate international knowledge about problem gambling prevention and contribute to a German discussion about empirically based guidelines of low-risk gambling. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Estimation in Discretely Observed Diffusions Killed at a Threshold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bibbona, Enrico; Ditlevsen, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    are modelled as discretely observed diffusions which are killed when the threshold is reached. Statistical inference is often based on a misspecified likelihood ignoring the presence of the threshold causing severe bias, e.g. the bias incurred in the drift parameters of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model...... for biological relevant parameters can be up to 25–100 per cent. We compute or approximate the likelihood function of the killed process. When estimating from a single trajectory, considerable bias may still be present, and the distribution of the estimates can be heavily skewed and with a huge variance...

  8. An accelerated threshold-based back-projection algorithm for Compton camera image reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundy, Daniel W.; Herman, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Compton camera imaging (CCI) systems are currently under investigation for radiotherapy dose reconstruction and verification. The ability of such a system to provide real-time images during dose delivery will be limited by the computational speed of the image reconstruction algorithm. In this work, the authors present a fast and simple method by which to generate an initial back-projected image from acquired CCI data, suitable for use in a filtered back-projection algorithm or as a starting point for iterative reconstruction algorithms, and compare its performance to the current state of the art. Methods: Each detector event in a CCI system describes a conical surface that includes the true point of origin of the detected photon. Numerical image reconstruction algorithms require, as a first step, the back-projection of each of these conical surfaces into an image space. The algorithm presented here first generates a solution matrix for each slice of the image space by solving the intersection of the conical surface with the image plane. Each element of the solution matrix is proportional to the distance of the corresponding voxel from the true intersection curve. A threshold function was developed to extract those pixels sufficiently close to the true intersection to generate a binary intersection curve. This process is repeated for each image plane for each CCI detector event, resulting in a three-dimensional back-projection image. The performance of this algorithm was tested against a marching algorithm known for speed and accuracy. Results: The threshold-based algorithm was found to be approximately four times faster than the current state of the art with minimal deficit to image quality, arising from the fact that a generically applicable threshold function cannot provide perfect results in all situations. The algorithm fails to extract a complete intersection curve in image slices near the detector surface for detector event cones having axes nearly

  9. Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

    2015-06-01

    The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

  10. Estimating marginal properties of quantitative real-time PCR data using nonlinear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerhard, Daniel; Bremer, Melanie; Ritz, Christian

    2014-01-01

    A unified modeling framework based on a set of nonlinear mixed models is proposed for flexible modeling of gene expression in real-time PCR experiments. Focus is on estimating the marginal or population-based derived parameters: cycle thresholds and ΔΔc(t), but retaining the conditional mixed mod...

  11. The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: an application of the multivariate threshold model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bwo-Nung Huang; National Chia-Yi University; Hwang, M.J.; Hsiao-Ping Peng

    2005-01-01

    This paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities (changes in industrial production and real stock returns). The statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist. Using monthly data of the US, Canada, and Japan during the period from 1970 to 2002, we conclude: (i) the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy-saving technology; (ii) an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels; (iii) if the change is above threshold levels, it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price; and (iv) if the change is above threshold levels, a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate. (author)

  12. Two-dimensional threshold voltage analytical model of DMG strained-silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jin; Liu Hongxia; Li Bin; Cao Lei; Yuan Bo

    2010-01-01

    For the first time, a simple and accurate two-dimensional analytical model for the surface potential variation along the channel in fully depleted dual-material gate strained-Si-on-insulator (DMG SSOI) MOSFETs is developed. We investigate the improved short channel effect (SCE), hot carrier effect (HCE), drain-induced barrier-lowering (DIBL) and carrier transport efficiency for the novel structure MOSFET. The analytical model takes into account the effects of different metal gate lengths, work functions, the drain bias and Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The surface potential in the channel region exhibits a step potential, which can suppress SCE, HCE and DIBL. Also, strained-Si and SOI structure can improve the carrier transport efficiency, with strained-Si being particularly effective. Further, the threshold voltage model correctly predicts a 'rollup' in threshold voltage with decreasing channel length ratios or Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The validity of the two-dimensional analytical model is verified using numerical simulations. (semiconductor devices)

  13. The threshold of coexistence and critical behaviour of a predator-prey cellular automaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arashiro, Everaldo; Tome, Tania

    2007-01-01

    We study a probabilistic cellular automaton to describe two population biology problems: the threshold of species coexistence in a predator-prey system and the spreading of an epidemic in a population. By carrying out mean-field approximations and numerical simulations we obtain the phase boundaries (thresholds) related to the transition between an active state, where prey and predators present a stable coexistence, and a prey absorbing state. The numerical estimates for the critical exponents show that the transition belongs to the directed percolation universality class. In the limit where the cellular automaton maps into a model for the spreading of an epidemic with immunization we observe a crossover from directed percolation class to the dynamic percolation class. Patterns of growing clusters related to species coexistence and spreading of epidemic are shown and discussed

  14. Single bumps in a 2-population homogenized neuronal network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodina, Karina; Oleynik, Anna; Wyller, John

    2018-05-01

    We investigate existence and stability of single bumps in a homogenized 2-population neural field model, when the firing rate functions are given by the Heaviside function. The model is derived by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity functions. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. The bump solutions are constructed by using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable. In the weakly modulated case the generic picture consists of two bumps (one narrow and one broad bump) for each admissible set of threshold values for firing. In addition, a new threshold value regime for existence of bumps is detected. Beyond the weakly modulated regime the number of bumps depends sensitively on the degree of heterogeneity. For the latter case we present a configuration consisting of three coexisting bumps. The linear stability of the bumps is studied by means of the spectral properties of a Fredholm integral operator, block diagonalization of this operator and the Fourier decomposition method. In the weakly modulated regime, one of the bumps is unstable for all relative inhibition times, while the other one is stable for small and moderate values of this parameter. The latter bump becomes unstable as the relative inhibition time exceeds a certain threshold. In the case of the three coexisting bumps detected in the regime of finite degree of heterogeneity, we have at least one stable bump (and maximum two stable bumps) for small and moderate values of the relative inhibition time.

  15. At-Risk-of-Poverty Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Táňa Dvornáková

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC is a survey on households’ living conditions. The main aim of the survey is to get long-term comparable data on social and economic situation of households. Data collected in the survey are used mainly in connection with the evaluation of income poverty and determinationof at-risk-of-poverty rate. This article deals with the calculation of the at risk-of-poverty threshold based on data from EU-SILC 2009. The main task is to compare two approaches to the computation of at riskof-poverty threshold. The first approach is based on the calculation of the threshold for each country separately,while the second one is based on the calculation of the threshold for all states together. The introduction summarizes common attributes in the calculation of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, such as disposable household income, equivalised household income. Further, different approaches to both calculations are introduced andadvantages and disadvantages of these approaches are stated. Finally, the at-risk-of-poverty rate calculation is described and comparison of the at-risk-of-poverty rates based on these two different approaches is made.

  16. Incorporation of the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cederkvist, Luise; Holst, Klaus K.; Andersen, Klaus K.

    2017-01-01

    to estimates that are difficult to interpret and are potentially biased. We incorporate the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data following the same approach that has been applied in the twin setting. Thus, the data are considered as arising from a competing risks setting...... approach using simulation studies and apply it in the analysis of two Danish register-based case-control-family studies: one on cancer diagnosed in childhood and adolescence, and one on early-onset breast cancer....

  17. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yntze van der Hoek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively. In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that

  18. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L

    2013-01-01

    Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that

  19. A derivation of the stable cavitation threshold accounting for bubble-bubble interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guédra, Matthieu; Cornu, Corentin; Inserra, Claude

    2017-09-01

    The subharmonic emission of sound coming from the nonlinear response of a bubble population is the most used indicator for stable cavitation. When driven at twice their resonance frequency, bubbles can exhibit subharmonic spherical oscillations if the acoustic pressure amplitude exceeds a threshold value. Although various theoretical derivations exist for the subharmonic emission by free or coated bubbles, they all rest on the single bubble model. In this paper, we propose an analytical expression of the subharmonic threshold for interacting bubbles in a homogeneous, monodisperse cloud. This theory predicts a shift of the subharmonic resonance frequency and a decrease of the corresponding pressure threshold due to the interactions. For a given sonication frequency, these results show that an optimal value of the interaction strength (i.e. the number density of bubbles) can be found for which the subharmonic threshold is minimum, which is consistent with recently published experiments conducted on ultrasound contrast agents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juul, Jonas S.; Porter, Mason A.

    2018-01-01

    Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can—depending on a parameter—either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

  1. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

    2014-07-01

    Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

  2. Modelling effects of diquat under realistic exposure patterns in genetically differentiated populations of the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Lagadic, Laurent

    2010-11-12

    Pesticide use leads to complex exposure and response patterns in non-target aquatic species, so that the analysis of data from standard toxicity tests may result in unrealistic risk forecasts. Developing models that are able to capture such complexity from toxicity test data is thus a crucial issue for pesticide risk assessment. In this study, freshwater snails from two genetically differentiated populations of Lymnaea stagnalis were exposed to repeated acute applications of environmentally realistic concentrations of the herbicide diquat, from the embryo to the adult stage. Hatching rate, embryonic development duration, juvenile mortality, feeding rate and age at first spawning were investigated during both exposure and recovery periods. Effects of diquat on mortality were analysed using a threshold hazard model accounting for time-varying herbicide concentrations. All endpoints were significantly impaired at diquat environmental concentrations in both populations. Snail evolutionary history had no significant impact on their sensitivity and responsiveness to diquat, whereas food acted as a modulating factor of toxicant-induced mortality. The time course of effects was adequately described by the model, which thus appears suitable to analyse long-term effects of complex exposure patterns based upon full life cycle experiment data. Obtained model outputs (e.g. no-effect concentrations) could be directly used for chemical risk assessment.

  3. A critical experimental study of the classical tactile threshold theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medina Leonel E

    2010-06-01

    level. Nevertheless, our experimental results are above that chance level. Therefore, if detection exists below the classical threshold level, then the model to explain the SR phenomenon or any other tactile perception phenomena based on the psychophysical classical threshold is not valid. We conclude that a more suitable model of the tactile sensory system is needed.

  4. Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up.Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger-cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

  5. String Threshold corrections in models with spondaneously broken supersymmetry

    CERN Document Server

    Kiritsis, Elias B; Petropoulos, P M; Rizos, J

    1999-01-01

    We analyse a class of four-dimensional heterotic ground states with N=2 space-time supersymmetry. From the ten-dimensional perspective, such models can be viewed as compactifications on a six-dimensional manifold with SU(2) holonomy, which is locally but not globally K3 x T^2. The maximal N=4 supersymmetry is spontaneously broken to N=2. The masses of the two massive gravitinos depend on the (T,U) moduli of T^2. We evaluate the one-loop threshold corrections of gauge and R^2 couplings and we show that they fall in several universality classes, in contrast to what happens in usual K3 x T^2 compactifications, where the N=4 supersymmetry is explicitly broken to N=2, and where a single universality class appears. These universality properties follow from the structure of the elliptic genus. The behaviour of the threshold corrections as functions of the moduli is analysed in detail: it is singular across several rational lines of the T^2 moduli because of the appearance of extra massless states, and suffers only f...

  6. Probabilistic dietary risk assessment of pesticide residues in foods for the German population based on food monitoring data from 2009 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieke, Christian; Michalski, Britta; Kuhl, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Dietary risks for the German population owing to pesticide residues in foods were assessed based on food monitoring data, consumption surveys for children and adults and compound specific toxicological reference values or general thresholds of toxicological concern. A tiered probabilistic modelling was conducted to screen 700 pesticides for significant long- and short-term dietary exposures. Especially for the short-term dietary exposure, the probabilistic methodology used allows simultaneous consideration of the complete daily consumption, whereas most regulatory bodies still rely on single commodity approaches. After screening, refined exposure assessments were conducted for 19 compounds under consideration of conversion factors for toxicologically relevant metabolites, processing information, experimentally derived variability factors and the edible portion for each food item. In total, for 693 compounds the dietary exposure was unlikely to present a chronic or acute public health concern for the German population. In contrast, the refined assessments indicate that the short-term dietary exposure for chlorpyrifos and the cumulative short-term dietary exposure for dimethoate and omethoate may present a public health concern. For copper, owing to exposure assessment limitations, as well as for dimethylvinphos, halfenprox and tricyclazole, which exceeded the thresholds of toxicological concern, the dietary risk assessment remained inconclusive.

  7. Considering a Threshold Energy in Reactive Transport Modeling of Microbially Mediated Redox Reactions in an Arsenic-Affected Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Rotiroti

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The reductive dissolution of Fe-oxide driven by organic matter oxidation is the primary mechanism accepted for As mobilization in several alluvial aquifers. These processes are often mediated by microorganisms that require a minimum Gibbs energy available to conduct the reaction in order to sustain their life functions. Implementing this threshold energy in reactive transport modeling is rarely used in the existing literature. This work presents a 1D reactive transport modeling of As mobilization by the reductive dissolution of Fe-oxide and subsequent immobilization by co-precipitation in iron sulfides considering a threshold energy for the following terminal electron accepting processes: (a Fe-oxide reduction, (b sulfate reduction, and (c methanogenesis. The model is then extended by implementing a threshold energy on both reaction directions for the redox reaction pairs Fe(III reduction/Fe(II oxidation and methanogenesis/methane oxidation. The optimal threshold energy fitted in 4.50, 3.76, and 1.60 kJ/mol e− for sulfate reduction, Fe(III reduction/Fe(II oxidation, and methanogenesis/methane oxidation, respectively. The use of models implementing bidirectional threshold energy is needed when a redox reaction pair can be transported between domains with different redox potentials. This may often occur in 2D or 3D simulations.

  8. Velocity-based movement modeling for individual and population level inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ephraim M Hanks

    Full Text Available Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables.

  9. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  10. Novel Threshold Changeable Secret Sharing Schemes Based on Polynomial Interpolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Lifeng; Li, Mingchu; Guo, Cheng; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond; Ren, Yizhi

    2016-01-01

    After any distribution of secret sharing shadows in a threshold changeable secret sharing scheme, the threshold may need to be adjusted to deal with changes in the security policy and adversary structure. For example, when employees leave the organization, it is not realistic to expect departing employees to ensure the security of their secret shadows. Therefore, in 2012, Zhang et al. proposed (t → t', n) and ({t1, t2,⋯, tN}, n) threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. However, their schemes suffer from a number of limitations such as strict limit on the threshold values, large storage space requirement for secret shadows, and significant computation for constructing and recovering polynomials. To address these limitations, we propose two improved dealer-free threshold changeable secret sharing schemes. In our schemes, we construct polynomials to update secret shadows, and use two-variable one-way function to resist collusion attacks and secure the information stored by the combiner. We then demonstrate our schemes can adjust the threshold safely.

  11. Statistical Analysis of SSMIS Sea Ice Concentration Threshold at the Arctic Sea Ice Edge during Summer Based on MODIS and Ship-Based Observational Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qing; Li, Fei; Pang, Xiaoping; Luo, Cong

    2018-04-05

    The threshold of sea ice concentration (SIC) is the basis for accurately calculating sea ice extent based on passive microwave (PM) remote sensing data. However, the PM SIC threshold at the sea ice edge used in previous studies and released sea ice products has not always been consistent. To explore the representable value of the PM SIC threshold corresponding on average to the position of the Arctic sea ice edge during summer in recent years, we extracted sea ice edge boundaries from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice product (MOD29 with a spatial resolution of 1 km), MODIS images (250 m), and sea ice ship-based observation points (1 km) during the fifth (CHINARE-2012) and sixth (CHINARE-2014) Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions, and made an overlay and comparison analysis with PM SIC derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, with a spatial resolution of 25 km) in the summer of 2012 and 2014. Results showed that the average SSMIS SIC threshold at the Arctic sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted from MOD29 was 33%, which was higher than that of the commonly used 15% discriminant threshold. The average SIC threshold at sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted by visual interpretation from four scenes of the MODIS image was 35% when compared to the average value of 36% from the MOD29 extracted ice edge pixels for the same days. The average SIC of 31% at the sea ice edge points extracted from ship-based observations also confirmed that choosing around 30% as the SIC threshold during summer is recommended for sea ice extent calculations based on SSMIS PM data. These results can provide a reference for further studying the variation of sea ice under the rapidly changing Arctic.

  12. Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

    2018-03-05

    The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

  13. Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrubia, Susanna C; Domingo, Esteban; Lázaro, Ester

    2010-06-27

    Since the introduction of the quasispecies and the error catastrophe concepts for molecular evolution by Eigen and their subsequent application to viral populations, increased mutagenesis has become a common strategy to cause the extinction of viral infectivity. Nevertheless, the high complexity of virus populations has shown that viral extinction can occur through several other pathways apart from crossing an error threshold. Increases in the mutation rate enhance the appearance of defective forms and promote the selection of mechanisms that are able to counteract the accelerated appearance of mutations. Current models of viral evolution take into account more realistic scenarios that consider compensatory and lethal mutations, a highly redundant genotype-to-phenotype map, rough fitness landscapes relating phenotype and fitness, and where phenotype is described as a set of interdependent traits. Further, viral populations cannot be understood without specifying the characteristics of the environment where they evolve and adapt. Altogether, it turns out that the pathways through which viral quasispecies go extinct are multiple and diverse.

  14. Threshold Based Opportunistic Scheduling of Secondary Users in Underlay Cognitive Radio Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Song, Yao

    2011-12-01

    In underlay cognitive radio networks, secondary users can share the spectrum with primary users as long as the interference caused by the secondary users to primary users is below a certain predetermined threshold. It is reasonable to assume that there is always a large pool of secondary users trying to access the channel, which can be occupied by only one secondary user at a given time. As a result, a multi-user scheduling problem arises among the secondary users. In this thesis, by manipulating basic schemes based on selective multi-user diversity, normalized thresholding, transmission power control, and opportunistic round robin, we propose and analyze eight scheduling schemes of secondary users in an underlay cognitive radio set-up. The system performance of these schemes is quantified by using various performance metrics such as the average system capacity, normalized average feedback load, scheduling outage probability, and system fairness of access. In our proposed schemes, the best user out of all the secondary users in the system is picked to transmit at each given time slot in order to maximize the average system capacity. Two thresholds are used in the two rounds of the selection process to determine the best user. The first threshold is raised by the power constraint from the primary user. The second threshold, which can be adjusted by us, is introduced to reduce the feedback load. The overall system performance is therefore dependent on the choice of these two thresholds and the number of users in the system given the channel conditions for all the users. In this thesis, by deriving analytical formulas and presenting numerical examples, we try to provide insights of the relationship between the performance metrics and the involved parameters including two selection thresholds and the number of active users in the system, in an effort to maximize the average system capacity as well as satisfy the requirements of scheduling outage probability and

  15. Doppler ultrasound for detection of renal transplant artery stenosis - Threshold peak systolic velocity needs to be higher in a low-risk or surveillance population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, U.; Khaw, K.K.; Hughes, N.C.

    2003-01-01

    AIMS: To establish the ideal threshold arterial velocity for the diagnosis of renal transplant artery stenosis in a surveillance population with a low pre-test probability of stenosis. METHODS: Retrospective review of Doppler ultrasound, angiographic and clinical outcome data of patients transplanted over a 3-year period. Data used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for various threshold peak systolic velocity values. RESULTS: Of 144 patients transplanted, full data were available in 117 cases. Five cases had renal transplant artery stenosis--incidence 4.2% [stenosis identified at a mean of 6.5 months (range 2-10 months)]. All five cases had a significant arterial pressure gradient across the narrowing and underwent angioplasty. Threshold peak systolic velocity of ≥2.5 m/s is not ideal [specificity=79% (CI 65-82%), PPV=18% (CI 6-32%), NPV=100% (CI 94-100%)], subjecting many patients to unnecessary angiography--8/117 (6%) in our population. Comparable values if the threshold is set at ≥3.0 m/s are 93% (CI 77-96%), 33% (CI 7-44%) and 99% (CI 93-100%), respectively. The clinical outcome of all patients was satisfactory, with no unexplained graft failures or loss. CONCLUSIONS: In a surveillance population with a low pre-test probability of stenosis, absolute renal artery velocity ≥2.5 m/s is a limited surrogate marker for significant renal artery stenosis. The false-positive rate is high, and ≥3.0 m/s is a better choice which will halve the number of patients enduring unnecessary angiography. Close clinical follow-up of patients in the 2.5-3.0 m/s range, with repeat Doppler ultrasound if necessary, will identify the test false-negatives

  16. Evolutionary stellar population synthesis with MILES : I. The base models and a new line index system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vazdekis, A.; Sanchez-Blazquez, P.; Falcon-Barroso, J.; Cenarro, A. J.; Beasley, M. A.; Cardiel, N.; Gorgas, J.; Peletier, R. F.

    2010-01-01

    We present synthetic spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for single-age, single-metallicity stellar populations (SSPs) covering the full optical spectral range at moderately high resolution [full width at half-maximum (FWHM) = 2.3Å]. These SEDs constitute our base models, as they combine

  17. Performance of iPad-based threshold perimetry in glaucoma and controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Angela M; Graham, Elizabeth C; You, YuYi; Klistorner, Alexander; Graham, Stuart L

    2017-10-04

    Independent validation of iPad visual field testing software Melbourne Rapid Fields (MRF). To examine the functionality of MRF and compare its performance with Humphrey SITA 24-2 (HVF). Prospective, cross-sectional validation study. Sixty glaucomas (MD:-5.08±5.22); 17 pre-perimetric, 43 HVF field defects and 25 controls. The MRF was compared with HVF for scotoma detection, global indices, regional mean threshold values and sensitivity/specificity. Long-term test-retest variability was assessed after 6 months. Linear regression and Bland Altman analyses of global indices sensitivity/specificity using ROC curves, intraclass correlations. Using a cluster definition of three points at <1% or two at 0.5% to define a scotoma on HVF, MRF detected 39/54 abnormal hemifields with a similar threshold-based criteria. Global indices were highly correlated between MRF and HVF: MD r 2 = 0.80, PSD r 2 = 0.77, VFI r 2 = 0.85 (all P < 0.0001). For manifest glaucoma patients, correlations of regional mean thresholds ranged from r 2 = 0.45-0.78, despite differing array of tested points between devices. ROC analysis of global indices showed reasonable sensitivity/specificity with AUC values of MD:0.89, PSD:0.85 and VFI:0.88. MRF retest variability was low with ICC values at 0.95 (MD and VFI), 0.94 (PSD). However, individual test point variability for mid-range thresholds was higher. MRF perimetry, despite using a completely different test paradigm, shows good performance characteristics compared to HVF for detection of defects, correlation of global indices and regional mean threshold values. Reproducibility for individual points may limit application for monitoring change over time, and fixation monitoring needs improvement. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  18. Minimum indoor temperature threshold recommendations for English homes in winter - A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevons, R; Carmichael, C; Crossley, A; Bone, A

    2016-07-01

    To identify and assess the available evidence on the impacts of cold indoor temperature thresholds on human health and make evidence-based recommendations for English homes. Systematic literature review. A systematic search of peer-reviewed published literature from the UK and countries with similar climates, and grading of the evidence using the National Institute of Health (NIH) framework was followed by a discussion with experts and formulation of recommendations. Twenty papers were included. Studies were included if they were conducted outside England but were from countries considered to have similar climates. Studies included two small randomised controlled trials, two cohort studies and one case control study; other studies were cross-sectional, largely laboratory-based studies. Health effects in the general population start to occur at around 18 °C. Effects in older people are more profound than in younger adults. Older people are less able to perceive low temperatures. Although evidence was limited, a strong argument for setting thresholds remains. The effects observed on the general population and the effects on those more vulnerable makes a case for a recommended minimum temperature for all. Health messages should be clear and simple, allowing informed choices to be made. A threshold of 18 °C was considered the evidence based and practical minimum temperature at which a home should be kept during winter in England. There is limited evidence available on minimum temperature thresholds for homes. However a recommendation of at least 18 °C for the whole population with nuancing of messages for those more vulnerable to the effects of cold can be made from the results of the retrieved studies. Heating homes to at least 18 °C (65 °F) in winter poses minimal risk to the health of a sedentary person, wearing suitable clothing. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

    2009-01-01

    Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives

  20. Model for fitting longitudinal traits subject to threshold response applied to genetic evaluation for heat tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misztal Ignacy

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A semi-parametric non-linear longitudinal hierarchical model is presented. The model assumes that individual variation exists both in the degree of the linear change of performance (slope beyond a particular threshold of the independent variable scale and in the magnitude of the threshold itself; these individual variations are attributed to genetic and environmental components. During implementation via a Bayesian MCMC approach, threshold levels were sampled using a Metropolis step because their fully conditional posterior distributions do not have a closed form. The model was tested by simulation following designs similar to previous studies on genetics of heat stress. Posterior means of parameters of interest, under all simulation scenarios, were close to their true values with the latter always being included in the uncertain regions, indicating an absence of bias. The proposed models provide flexible tools for studying genotype by environmental interaction as well as for fitting other longitudinal traits subject to abrupt changes in the performance at particular points on the independent variable scale.

  1. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  2. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  3. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  4. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  5. Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prama Setia Putra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To understand dengue transmission process and its vector dynamics and to develop early warning model of dengue occurrences based on mosquito population and host-vector threshold values considering temperature and rainfall. Methods: To obtain the early warning model, mosquito population and host-vector models are developed initially. Both are developed using differential equations. Basic offspring number (R0m and basic reproductive ratio (R0d which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption. Temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito and dengue are performed in entomological and disease transmission parameters. Some of parameters are set as functions of temperature or rainfall while other parameters are set to be constant. Hereafter, both threshold values are computed using those parameters. Monthly dengue occurrences data are categorized as zero and one values which one means the outbreak does occur in that month. Logistics regression is chosen to bridge the threshold values and categorized data. Threshold values are considered as the input of early warning model. Semarang city is selected as the sample to develop this early waning model. Results: The derived threshold values which are R 0 m and R 0 d show to have relation that mosquito as dengue vector affects transmission of the disease. Result of the early warning model will be a value between zero and one. It is categorized as outbreak does occur when the value is larger than 0.5 while other is categorized as outbreak does not occur. By using single predictor, the model can perform 68% accuracy approximately. Conclusions: The extinction of mosquitoes will be followed by disease disappearance while mosquitoes existence can lead to disease free or endemic states. Model simulations show that mosquito population are more affected by weather factors than human. Involving weather factors implicitly in the threshold value and linking them

  6. Some fundamental considerations on the dynamics of class B laser threshold crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Puccioni, G. P.; Wang, T.; Lippi, G. L.

    2016-01-01

    With the help of a simple rate equation model, we analyze the intrinsic dynamics of threshold crossing for Class B lasers. A thorough discussion of the characteristics and the limitations of this very commonly employed model, which provides excellent qualitative predictions on the laser behaviour, is offered. Approximate solutions for the population inversion and for the field intensity, up to the point where the latter reaches macroscopic levels, are found and discussed, together with the as...

  7. Ultrafuzziness Optimization Based on Type II Fuzzy Sets for Image Thresholding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hudan Studiawan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Image thresholding is one of the processing techniques to provide high quality preprocessed image. Image vagueness and bad illumination are common obstacles yielding in a poor image thresholding output. By assuming image as fuzzy sets, several different fuzzy thresholding techniques have been proposed to remove these obstacles during threshold selection. In this paper, we proposed an algorithm for thresholding image using ultrafuzziness optimization to decrease uncertainty in fuzzy system by common fuzzy sets like type II fuzzy sets. Optimization was conducted by involving ultrafuzziness measurement for background and object fuzzy sets separately. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed image thresholding method had good performances for images with high vagueness, low level contrast, and grayscale ambiguity.

  8. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  9. Correlating optical damage threshold with intrinsic defect populations in fused silica as a function of heat treatment temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Matthews, M. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Elhadj, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Miller, P. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Nelson, A. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hamilton, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2013-04-03

    Here, chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is used for the production of fused silica optics in high-power laser applications. However, relatively little is known about the ultraviolet laser damage threshold of CVD films and how they relate to intrinsic defects produced during deposition. We present here a study relating structural and electronic defects in CVD films to 355 nm pulsed-laser damage threshold as a function of post-deposition annealing temperature (THT). Plasma-enhanced CVD based on SiH4/N2O under oxygen-rich conditions was used to deposit 1.5, 3.1 and 6.4 µm thick films on etched SiO2 substrates. Rapid annealing was performed using a scanned CO2 laser beam up to THT ~ 2100 K. The films were then characterized using x-ray photoemission spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and photoluminescence spectroscopy. A gradual transition in the damage threshold of annealed films was observed for THT values up to 1600 K, correlating with a decrease in non-bridging silanol and oxygen deficient centres. An additional sharp transition in damage threshold also occurs at ~1850 K indicating substrate annealing. Based on our results, a mechanism for damage-related defect annealing is proposed, and the potential of using high-THT CVD SiO2 to mitigate optical damage is also discussed.

  10. Terrestrial Microgravity Model and Threshold Gravity Simulation using Magnetic Levitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, N.

    2005-01-01

    What is the threshold gravity (minimum gravity level) required for the nominal functioning of the human system? What dosage is required? Do human cell lines behave differently in microgravity in response to an external stimulus? The critical need for such a gravity simulator is emphasized by recent experiments on human epithelial cells and lymphocytes on the Space Shuttle clearly showing that cell growth and function are markedly different from those observed terrestrially. Those differences are also dramatic between cells grown in space and those in Rotating Wall Vessels (RWV), or NASA bioreactor often used to simulate microgravity, indicating that although morphological growth patterns (three dimensional growth) can be successfully simulated using RWVs, cell function performance is not reproduced - a critical difference. If cell function is dramatically affected by gravity off-loading, then cell response to stimuli such as radiation, stress, etc. can be very different from terrestrial cell lines. Yet, we have no good gravity simulator for use in study of these phenomena. This represents a profound shortcoming for countermeasures research. We postulate that we can use magnetic levitation of cells and tissue, through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients, as a terrestrial microgravity model to study human cells. Specific objectives of the research are: 1. To develop a tried, tested and benchmarked terrestrial microgravity model for cell culture studies; 2. Gravity threshold determination; 3. Dosage (magnitude and duration) of g-level required for nominal functioning of cells; 4. Comparisons of magnetic levitation model to other models such as RWV, hind limb suspension, etc. and 5. Cellular response to reduced gravity levels of Moon and Mars. The paper will discuss experiments md modeling work to date in support of this project.

  11. Double Photoionization Near Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehlitz, Ralf

    2007-01-01

    The threshold region of the double-photoionization cross section is of particular interest because both ejected electrons move slowly in the Coulomb field of the residual ion. Near threshold both electrons have time to interact with each other and with the residual ion. Also, different theoretical models compete to describe the double-photoionization cross section in the threshold region. We have investigated that cross section for lithium and beryllium and have analyzed our data with respect to the latest results in the Coulomb-dipole theory. We find that our data support the idea of a Coulomb-dipole interaction.

  12. Wafer plane inspection with soft resist thresholding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Carl; Shi, Rui-fang; Wihl, Mark; Xiong, Yalin; Pang, Song

    2008-10-01

    Wafer Plane Inspection (WPI) is an inspection mode on the KLA-Tencor TeraScaTM platform that uses the high signalto- noise ratio images from the high numerical aperture microscope, and then models the entire lithographic process to enable defect detection on the wafer plane[1]. This technology meets the needs of some advanced mask manufacturers to identify the lithographically-significant defects while ignoring the other non-lithographically-significant defects. WPI accomplishes this goal by performing defect detection based on a modeled image of how the mask features would actually print in the photoresist. There are several advantages to this approach: (1) the high fidelity of the images provide a sensitivity advantage over competing approaches; (2) the ability to perform defect detection on the wafer plane allows one to only see those defects that have a printing impact on the wafer; (3) the use of modeling on the lithographic portion of the flow enables unprecedented flexibility to support arbitrary illumination profiles, process-window inspection in unit time, and combination modes to find both printing and non-printing defects. WPI is proving to be a valuable addition to the KLA-Tencor detection algorithm suite. The modeling portion of WPI uses a single resist threshold as the final step in the processing. This has been shown to be adequate on several advanced customer layers, but is not ideal for all layers. Actual resist chemistry has complicated processes including acid and base-diffusion and quench that are not consistently well-modeled with a single resist threshold. We have considered the use of an advanced resist model for WPI, but rejected it because the burdensome requirements for the calibration of the model were not practical for reticle inspection. This paper describes an alternative approach that allows for a "soft" resist threshold to be applied that provides a more robust solution for the most challenging processes. This approach is just

  13. Stochastic Threshold Microdose Model for Cell Killing by Insoluble Metallic Nanomaterial Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Bobby R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel microdosimetric model for metallic nanomaterial-particles (MENAP)-induced cytotoxicity. The focus is on the engineered insoluble MENAP which represent a significant breakthrough in the design and development of new products for consumers, industry, and medicine. Increased production is rapidly occurring and may cause currently unrecognized health effects (e.g., nervous system dysfunction, heart disease, cancer); thus, dose-response models for MENAP-induced biological effects are needed to facilitate health risk assessment. The stochastic threshold microdose (STM) model presented introduces novel stochastic microdose metrics for use in constructing dose-response relationships for the frequency of specific cellular (e.g., cell killing, mutations, neoplastic transformation) or subcellular (e.g., mitochondria dysfunction) effects. A key metric is the exposure-time-dependent, specific burden (MENAP count) for a given critical target (e.g., mitochondria, nucleus). Exceeding a stochastic threshold specific burden triggers cell death. For critical targets in the cytoplasm, the autophagic mode of death is triggered. For the nuclear target, the apoptotic mode of death is triggered. Overall cell survival is evaluated for the indicated competing modes of death when both apply. The STM model can be applied to cytotoxicity data using Bayesian methods implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo. PMID:21191483

  14. Terrestrial Microgravity Model and Threshold Gravity Simulation sing Magnetic Levitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, N.

    2005-01-01

    What is the threshold gravity (minimum gravity level) required for the nominal functioning of the human system? What dosage is required? Do human cell lines behave differently in microgravity in response to an external stimulus? The critical need for such a gravity simulator is emphasized by recent experiments on human epithelial cells and lymphocytes on the Space Shuttle clearly showing that cell growth and function are markedly different from those observed terrestrially. Those differences are also dramatic between cells grown in space and those in Rotating Wall Vessels (RWV), or NASA bioreactor often used to simulate microgravity, indicating that although morphological growth patterns (three dimensional growth) can be successiblly simulated using RWVs, cell function performance is not reproduced - a critical difference. If cell function is dramatically affected by gravity off-loading, then cell response to stimuli such as radiation, stress, etc. can be very different from terrestrial cell lines. Yet, we have no good gravity simulator for use in study of these phenomena. This represents a profound shortcoming for countermeasures research. We postulate that we can use magnetic levitation of cells and tissue, through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients, as a terrestrial microgravity model to study human cells. Specific objectives of the research are: 1. To develop a tried, tested and benchmarked terrestrial microgravity model for cell culture studies; 2. Gravity threshold determination; 3. Dosage (magnitude and duration) of g-level required for nominal functioning of cells; 4. Comparisons of magnetic levitation model to other models such as RWV, hind limb suspension, etc. and 5. Cellular response to reduced gravity levels of Moon and Mars.

  15. Performance analysis of a threshold-based parallel multiple beam selection scheme for WDM-based systems for Gamma-Gamma distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Sung Sik; Yoon, Chang Seok; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we statistically analyze the performance of a threshold-based parallel multiple beam selection scheme (TPMBS) for Free-space optical (FSO) based system with wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) in cases where a pointing error has

  16. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  17. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  18. Non-periodic preventive maintenance with reliability thresholds for complex repairable systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Zu-Liang; Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Fang, Chih-Chiang

    2015-01-01

    In general, a non-periodic condition-based PM policy with different condition variables is often more effective than a periodic age-based policy for deteriorating complex repairable systems. In this study, system reliability is estimated and used as the condition variable, and three reliability-based PM models are then developed with consideration of different scenarios which can assist in evaluating the maintenance cost for each scenario. The proposed approach provides the optimal reliability thresholds and PM schedules in advance by which the system availability and quality can be ensured and the organizational resources can be well prepared and managed. The results of the sensitivity anlysis indicate that PM activities performed at a high reliability threshold can not only significantly improve the system availability but also efficiently extend the system lifetime, although such a PM strategy is more costly than that for a low reliabiltiy threshold. The optimal reliability threshold increases along with the number of PM activities to prevent future breakdowns caused by severe deterioration, and thus substantially reduces repair costs. - Highlights: • The PM problems for repairable deteriorating systems are formulated. • The structural properties of the proposed PM models are investigated. • The corresponding algorithms to find the optimal PM strategies are provided. • Imperfect PM activities are allowed to reduce the occurences of breakdowns. • Provide managers with insights about the critical factors in the planning stage

  19. A real-time artifact reduction algorithm based on precise threshold during short-separation optical probe insertion in neurosurgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weitao Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available During neurosurgery, an optical probe has been used to guide the micro-electrode, which is punctured into the globus pallidus (GP to create a lesion that can relieve the cardinal symptoms. Accurate target localization is the key factor to affect the treatment. However, considering the scattering nature of the tissue, the “look ahead distance (LAD” of optical probe makes the boundary between the different tissues blurred and difficult to be distinguished, which is defined as artifact. Thus, it is highly desirable to reduce the artifact caused by LAD. In this paper, a real-time algorithm based on precise threshold was proposed to eliminate the artifact. The value of the threshold was determined by the maximum error of the measurement system during the calibration procession automatically. Then, the measured data was processed sequentially only based on the threshold and the former data. Moreover, 100μm double-fiber probe and two-layer and multi-layer phantom models were utilized to validate the precision of the algorithm. The error of the algorithm is one puncture step, which was proved in the theory and experiment. It was concluded that the present method could reduce the artifact caused by LAD and make the real boundary sharper and less blurred in real-time. It might be potentially used for the neurosurgery navigation.

  20. Population-production-pollution nexus based air pollution management model for alleviating the atmospheric crisis in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X T; Tong, Y F; Cui, L; Kong, X M; Sheng, Y N; Chen, L; Li, Y P

    2017-07-15

    In recent years, increscent emissions in the city of Beijing due to expanded population, accelerated industrialization and inter-regional pollutant transportation have led to hazardous atmospheric pollution issues. Although a number of anthropogenic control measures have been put into use, frequent/severe haze events have still challenged regional governments. In this study, a hybrid population-production-pollution nexus model (PPP) is proposed for air pollution management and air quality planning (AMP) with the aim to coordinate human activities and environmental protection. A fuzzy-stochastic mixed quadratic programming method (FSQ) is developed and introduced into a PPP for tackling atmospheric pollution issues with uncertainties. Based on the contribution of an index of population-production-pollution, a hybrid PPP-based AMP model that considers employment structure, industrial layout pattern, production mode, pollutant purification efficiency and a pollution mitigation scheme have been applied in Beijing. Results of the adjustment of employment structure, pollution mitigation scheme, and green gross domestic product under various environmental regulation scenarios are obtained and analyzed. This study can facilitate the identification of optimized policies for alleviating population-production-emission conflict in the study region, as well as ameliorating the hazardous air pollution crisis at an urban level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: A case study from the Galápagos Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W; Breckheimer, Ian; McCleary, Amy L; Guzmán-Ramirez, Liza; Caplow, Susan C; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Walsh, Stephen J

    2010-05-01

    Agent Based Models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population-environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews, and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands - tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population-environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.

  2. Effective temperature of an ultracold electron source based on near-threshold photoionization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, W.J.; Smakman, E.P.; Bakker, D.J.; Luiten, O.J.; Vredenbregt, E.J.D.

    2014-01-01

    We present a detailed description of measurements of the effective temperature of a pulsed electron source, based on near-threshold photoionization of laser-cooled atoms. The temperature is determined by electron beam waist scans, source size measurements with ion beams, and analysis with an

  3. A Nonlinear Transmission Line Model of the Cochlea With Temporal Integration Accounts for Duration Effects in Threshold Fine Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verhey, Jesko L.; Mauermann, Manfred; Epp, Bastian

    2017-01-01

    For normal-hearing listeners, auditory pure-tone thresholds in quiet often show quasi periodic fluctuations when measured with a high frequency resolution, referred to as threshold fine structure. Threshold fine structure is dependent on the stimulus duration, with smaller fluctuations for short...... than for long signals. The present study demonstrates how this effect can be captured by a nonlinear and active model of the cochlear in combination with a temporal integration stage. Since this cochlear model also accounts for fine structure and connected level dependent effects, it is superior...

  4. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  5. Night Vision Image De-Noising of Apple Harvesting Robots Based on the Wavelet Fuzzy Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhi Ruan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the de-noising problem of night vision images is studied for apple harvesting robots working at night. The wavelet threshold method is applied to the de-noising of night vision images. Due to the fact that the choice of wavelet threshold function restricts the effect of the wavelet threshold method, the fuzzy theory is introduced to construct the fuzzy threshold function. We then propose the de-noising algorithm based on the wavelet fuzzy threshold. This new method can reduce image noise interferences, which is conducive to further image segmentation and recognition. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, we conducted simulation experiments and compared the median filtering and the wavelet soft threshold de-noising methods. It is shown that this new method can achieve the highest relative PSNR. Compared with the original images, the median filtering de-noising method and the classical wavelet threshold de-noising method, the relative PSNR increases 24.86%, 13.95%, and 11.38% respectively. We carry out comparisons from various aspects, such as intuitive visual evaluation, objective data evaluation, edge evaluation and artificial light evaluation. The experimental results show that the proposed method has unique advantages for the de-noising of night vision images, which lay the foundation for apple harvesting robots working at night.

  6. Use of threshold-specific energy model for the prediction of effects of smoking and radon exposure on the risk of lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehm, R.; Bulko, M.; Holy, K.; Sedlak, A.

    2014-01-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women. Smoking causes 80-90 % of cases of lung cancer. In this study, an attempt was made to assess the impact of cigarette smoking on the risk of lung cancer by the so-called threshold-specific energy model. This model allows to analyse the biological effects of radon daughter products on the lung tissue, and is based on the assumption that the biological effect (i.e. cell inactivation) will manifest itself after the threshold-specific energy z0 deposited in the sensitive volume of the cell is exceeded. Cigarette smoking causes, among others, an increase in the synthesis of the surviving protein that protects cells from apoptosis and thereby reduces their radiosensitivity. Based on these facts, an attempt was made to estimate the shape of the curves describing the increase in the oncological effect of radiation as a function of daily cigarette consumption. (authors)

  7. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  8. Bayesian methods for jointly estimating genomic breeding values of one continuous and one threshold trait.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonglong Wang

    Full Text Available Genomic selection has become a useful tool for animal and plant breeding. Currently, genomic evaluation is usually carried out using a single-trait model. However, a multi-trait model has the advantage of using information on the correlated traits, leading to more accurate genomic prediction. To date, joint genomic prediction for a continuous and a threshold trait using a multi-trait model is scarce and needs more attention. Based on the previously proposed methods BayesCπ for single continuous trait and BayesTCπ for single threshold trait, we developed a novel method based on a linear-threshold model, i.e., LT-BayesCπ, for joint genomic prediction of a continuous trait and a threshold trait. Computing procedures of LT-BayesCπ using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm were derived. A simulation study was performed to investigate the advantages of LT-BayesCπ over BayesCπ and BayesTCπ with regard to the accuracy of genomic prediction on both traits. Factors affecting the performance of LT-BayesCπ were addressed. The results showed that, in all scenarios, the accuracy of genomic prediction obtained from LT-BayesCπ was significantly increased for the threshold trait compared to that from single trait prediction using BayesTCπ, while the accuracy for the continuous trait was comparable with that from single trait prediction using BayesCπ. The proposed LT-BayesCπ could be a method of choice for joint genomic prediction of one continuous and one threshold trait.

  9. Probability of an Abnormal Screening PSA Result Based on Age, Race, and PSA Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espaldon, Roxanne; Kirby, Katharine A.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Hoffman, Richard M.; Powell, Adam A.; Freedland, Stephen J.; Walter, Louise C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine the distribution of screening PSA values in older men and how different PSA thresholds affect the proportion of white, black, and Latino men who would have an abnormal screening result across advancing age groups. Methods We used linked national VA and Medicare data to determine the value of the first screening PSA test (ng/mL) of 327,284 men age 65+ who underwent PSA screening in the VA healthcare system in 2003. We calculated the proportion of men with an abnormal PSA result based on age, race, and common PSA thresholds. Results Among men age 65+, 8.4% had a PSA >4.0ng/mL. The percentage of men with a PSA >4.0ng/mL increased with age and was highest in black men (13.8%) versus white (8.0%) or Latino men (10.0%) (PPSA >4.0ng/mL ranged from 5.1% of Latino men age 65–69 to 27.4% of black men age 85+. Raising the PSA threshold from >4.0ng/mL to >10.0ng/mL, reclassified the greatest percentage of black men age 85+ (18.3% absolute change) and the lowest percentage of Latino men age 65–69 (4.8% absolute change) as being under the biopsy threshold (PPSA threshold together affect the pre-test probability of an abnormal screening PSA result. Based on screening PSA distributions, stopping screening among men whose PSA 10ng/ml has the greatest effect on reducing the number of older black men who will face biopsy decisions after screening. PMID:24439009

  10. Thermalization threshold in models of 1D fermions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukerjee, Subroto; Modak, Ranjan; Ramswamy, Sriram

    2013-03-01

    The question of how isolated quantum systems thermalize is an interesting and open one. In this study we equate thermalization with non-integrability to try to answer this question. In particular, we study the effect of system size on the integrability of 1D systems of interacting fermions on a lattice. We find that for a finite-sized system, a non-zero value of an integrability breaking parameter is required to make an integrable system appear non-integrable. Using exact diagonalization and diagnostics such as energy level statistics and the Drude weight, we find that the threshold value of the integrability breaking parameter scales to zero as a power law with system size. We find the exponent to be the same for different models with its value depending on the random matrix ensemble describing the non-integrable system. We also study a simple analytical model of a non-integrable system with an integrable limit to better understand how a power law emerges.

  11. Effective temperature of an ultracold electron source based on near-threshold photoionization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelen, W J; Smakman, E P; Bakker, D J; Luiten, O J; Vredenbregt, E J D

    2014-01-01

    We present a detailed description of measurements of the effective temperature of a pulsed electron source, based on near-threshold photoionization of laser-cooled atoms. The temperature is determined by electron beam waist scans, source size measurements with ion beams, and analysis with an accurate beam line model. Experimental data is presented for the source temperature as a function of the wavelength of the photoionization laser, for both nanosecond and femtosecond ionization pulses. For the nanosecond laser, temperatures as low as 14 ± 3 K were found; for femtosecond photoionization, 30 ± 5 K is possible. With a typical source size of 25 μm, this results in electron bunches with a relative transverse coherence length in the 10⁻⁴ range and an emittance of a few nm rad. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Threshold behavior in electron-atom scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadeghpour, H.R.; Greene, C.H.

    1996-01-01

    Ever since the classic work of Wannier in 1953, the process of treating two threshold electrons in the continuum of a positively charged ion has been an active field of study. The authors have developed a treatment motivated by the physics below the double ionization threshold. By modeling the double ionization as a series of Landau-Zener transitions, they obtain an analytical formulation of the absolute threshold probability which has a leading power law behavior, akin to Wannier's law. Some of the noteworthy aspects of this derivation are that the derivation can be conveniently continued below threshold giving rise to a open-quotes cuspclose quotes at threshold, and that on both sides of the threshold, absolute values of the cross sections are obtained

  13. Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

    2015-06-01

    We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

  14. Prediction error variance and expected response to selection, when selection is based on the best predictor - for Gaussian and threshold characters, traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Anders Holst; Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Jensen, Just

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed...... or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found - otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non...... Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits - and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part...

  15. Linking population viability, habitat suitability, and landscape simulation models for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Larson; Frank R., III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; William D. Dijak; Stephen R. Shifley

    2004-01-01

    Methods for habitat modeling based on landscape simulations and population viability modeling based on habitat quality are well developed, but no published study of which we are aware has effectively joined them in a single, comprehensive analysis. We demonstrate the application of a population viability model for ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus)...

  16. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    OpenAIRE

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

  17. Modeling heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads using diffusion-advection PDEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moura, Scott; Ruiz, Victor; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on developing a partial differential equation (PDE)-based model and parameter identification scheme for heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs). First, a coupled two-state hyperbolic PDE model for homogenous TCL populations is derived. This model i...

  18. Optimizing Systems of Threshold Detection Sensors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Banschbach, David C

    2008-01-01

    .... Below the threshold all signals are ignored. We develop a mathematical model for setting individual sensor thresholds to obtain optimal probability of detecting a significant event, given a limit on the total number of false positives allowed...

  19. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  20. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  1. Efficiency using computer simulation of Reverse Threshold Model Theory on assessing a “One Laptop Per Child” computer versus desktop computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supat Faarungsang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Reverse Threshold Model Theory (RTMT model was introduced based on limiting factor concepts, but its efficiency compared to the Conventional Model (CM has not been published. This investigation assessed the efficiency of RTMT compared to CM using computer simulation on the “One Laptop Per Child” computer and a desktop computer. Based on probability values, it was found that RTMT was more efficient than CM among eight treatment combinations and an earlier study verified that RTMT gives complete elimination of random error. Furthermore, RTMT has several advantages over CM and is therefore proposed to be applied to most research data.

  2. Phased arrays: A strategy to lower the energy threshold for neutrinos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wissel Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In-ice radio arrays are optimized for detecting the highest energy, cosmogenic neutrinos expected to be produced though cosmic ray interactions with background photons. However, there are two expected populations of high energy neutrinos: the astrophysical flux observed by IceCube (~1 PeV and the cosmogenic flux (~ 1017 eV or 100 PeV. Typical radio arrays employ a noise-riding trigger, which limits their minimum energy threshold based on the background noise temperature of the ice. Phased radio arrays could lower the energy threshold by combining the signals from several channels before triggering, thereby improving the signal-to-noise at the trigger level. Reducing the energy threshold would allow radio experiments to more efficiently overlap with optical Cherenkov neutrino telescopes as well as for more efficient searches for cosmogenic neutrinos. We discuss the proposed technique and prototypical phased arrays deployed in an anechoic chamber and at Greenland’s Summit Station.

  3. A novel EMD selecting thresholding method based on multiple iteration for denoising LIDAR signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meng; Jiang, Li-hui; Xiong, Xing-long

    2015-06-01

    Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach has been believed to be potentially useful for processing the nonlinear and non-stationary LIDAR signals. To shed further light on its performance, we proposed the EMD selecting thresholding method based on multiple iteration, which essentially acts as a development of EMD interval thresholding (EMD-IT), and randomly alters the samples of noisy parts of all the corrupted intrinsic mode functions to generate a better effect of iteration. Simulations on both synthetic signals and LIDAR signals from real world support this method.

  4. Population inversion and threshold condition for laser oscillation in optically thin and thick recombining plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Toshiatsu; Furukane, Utaro.

    1982-03-01

    Overpopulation density δn sub(ij) which is defined as difference between the population densities per unit statistical weight of the upper and lower excited levels i and j is calculated as a function of the electron density n sub(e) for various electron temperatures T sub(e) in recombining hydrogen plasmas. The calculation is made for the line pairs with the principal quantum numbers, (2, 3), (3, 4) and (4, 5). Effect of the ground level population density n sub(l) on δn sub(ij) is calculated. In this calculation the atom-atom collision and the self-absorption of the resonance lines are taken account of. The n sub(l)-dependence of δn sub(ij) remains almost constant until the self-absorption becomes significant. When n sub(l) is zero, an optimum value of n sub(e) exists for δn sub(ij). The threshold condition for laser oscillation is discussed in relation to the calculated δn sub(ij). Laser oscillation is possible for the line pair (2, 3) at an electron density and temperature higher than for the other pairs (3, 4) and (4, 5) when the self-absorption is negligible. (author)

  5. The threshold hypothesis: solving the equation of nurture vs nature in type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserfall, C; Nead, K; Mathews, C; Atkinson, M A

    2011-09-01

    For more than 40 years, the contributions of nurture (i.e. the environment) and nature (i.e. genetics) have been touted for their aetiological importance in type 1 diabetes. Disappointingly, knowledge gains in these areas, while individually successful, have to a large extent occurred in isolation from each other. One reason underlying this divide is the lack of a testable model that simultaneously considers the contributions of genetic and environmental determinants in the formation of this and potentially other disorders that are subject to these variables. To address this void, we have designed a model based on the hypothesis that the aetiological influences of genetics and environment, when evaluated as intersecting and reciprocal trend lines based on odds ratios, result in a method of concurrently evaluating both facets and defining the attributable risk of clinical onset of type 1 diabetes. The model, which we have elected to term the 'threshold hypothesis', also provides a novel means of conceptualising the complex interactions of nurture with nature in type 1 diabetes across various geographical populations.

  6. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  7. Discriminating the precipitation phase based on different temperature thresholds in the Songhua River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Keyuan; Zheng, Fenli; Xu, Ximeng; Qin, Chao

    2018-06-01

    Different precipitation phases (rain, snow or sleet) differ greatly in their hydrological and erosional processes. Therefore, accurate discrimination of the precipitation phase is highly important when researching hydrologic processes and climate change at high latitudes and mountainous regions. The objective of this study was to identify suitable temperature thresholds for discriminating the precipitation phase in the Songhua River Basin (SRB) based on 20-year daily precipitation collected from 60 meteorological stations located in and around the basin. Two methods, the air temperature method (AT method) and the wet bulb temperature method (WBT method), were used to discriminate the precipitation phase. Thirteen temperature thresholds were used to discriminate snowfall in the SRB. These thresholds included air temperatures from 0 to 5.5 °C at intervals of 0.5 °C and the wet bulb temperature (WBT). Three evaluation indices, the error percentage of discriminated snowfall days (Ep), the relative error of discriminated snowfall (Re) and the determination coefficient (R2), were applied to assess the discrimination accuracy. The results showed that 2.5 °C was the optimum threshold temperature for discriminating snowfall at the scale of the entire basin. Due to differences in the landscape conditions at the different stations, the optimum threshold varied by station. The optimal threshold ranged 1.5-4.0 °C, and 19 stations, 17 stations and 18 stations had optimal thresholds of 2.5 °C, 3.0 °C, and 3.5 °C respectively, occupying 90% of all stations. Compared with using a single suitable temperature threshold to discriminate snowfall throughout the basin, it was more accurate to use the optimum threshold at each station to estimate snowfall in the basin. In addition, snowfall was underestimated when the temperature threshold was the WBT and when the temperature threshold was below 2.5 °C, whereas snowfall was overestimated when the temperature threshold exceeded 4

  8. Threshold effects on renormalization group running of neutrino parameters in the low-scale seesaw model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, Johannes; Ohlsson, Tommy; Zhang He

    2011-01-01

    We show that, in the low-scale type-I seesaw model, renormalization group running of neutrino parameters may lead to significant modifications of the leptonic mixing angles in view of so-called seesaw threshold effects. Especially, we derive analytical formulas for radiative corrections to neutrino parameters in crossing the different seesaw thresholds, and show that there may exist enhancement factors efficiently boosting the renormalization group running of the leptonic mixing angles. We find that, as a result of the seesaw threshold corrections to the leptonic mixing angles, various flavor symmetric mixing patterns (e.g., bi-maximal and tri-bimaximal mixing patterns) can be easily accommodated at relatively low energy scales, which is well within the reach of running and forthcoming experiments (e.g., the LHC).

  9. Quantile-based permutation thresholds for quantitative trait loci hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Elias Chaibub; Keller, Mark P; Broman, Andrew F; Attie, Alan D; Jansen, Ritsert C; Broman, Karl W; Yandell, Brian S

    2012-08-01

    Quantitative trait loci (QTL) hotspots (genomic locations affecting many traits) are a common feature in genetical genomics studies and are biologically interesting since they may harbor critical regulators. Therefore, statistical procedures to assess the significance of hotspots are of key importance. One approach, randomly allocating observed QTL across the genomic locations separately by trait, implicitly assumes all traits are uncorrelated. Recently, an empirical test for QTL hotspots was proposed on the basis of the number of traits that exceed a predetermined LOD value, such as the standard permutation LOD threshold. The permutation null distribution of the maximum number of traits across all genomic locations preserves the correlation structure among the phenotypes, avoiding the detection of spurious hotspots due to nongenetic correlation induced by uncontrolled environmental factors and unmeasured variables. However, by considering only the number of traits above a threshold, without accounting for the magnitude of the LOD scores, relevant information is lost. In particular, biologically interesting hotspots composed of a moderate to small number of traits with strong LOD scores may be neglected as nonsignificant. In this article we propose a quantile-based permutation approach that simultaneously accounts for the number and the LOD scores of traits within the hotspots. By considering a sliding scale of mapping thresholds, our method can assess the statistical significance of both small and large hotspots. Although the proposed approach can be applied to any type of heritable high-volume "omic" data set, we restrict our attention to expression (e)QTL analysis. We assess and compare the performances of these three methods in simulations and we illustrate how our approach can effectively assess the significance of moderate and small hotspots with strong LOD scores in a yeast expression data set.

  10. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

    OpenAIRE

    Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna

    2017-01-01

    A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  11. FAST COMMUNICATION: A PDE Based Two Level Model of the Masking Property of the Human Ear

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, Jack; Qi, Yingyong

    2003-01-01

    Human ear has the masking property that certain audible sound becomes inaudible in the presence of another sound. Masking is quantified by the raised threshold from the absolute hearing threshold in quiet. It is of scientific and practical importance to compute masking thresholds. Empirical models on masking have applications in low bit rate digital music compression. A first principle based two level model is developed with partial differential equation (PDE) at the periphe...

  12. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  13. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  14. On the Appearance of Thresholds in the Dynamical Model of Star Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmegreen, Bruce G.

    2018-02-01

    The Kennicutt–Schmidt (KS) relationship between the surface density of the star formation rate (SFR) and the gas surface density has three distinct power laws that may result from one model in which gas collapses at a fixed fraction of the dynamical rate. The power-law slope is 1 when the observed gas has a characteristic density for detection, 1.5 for total gas when the thickness is about constant as in the main disks of galaxies, and 2 for total gas when the thickness is regulated by self-gravity and the velocity dispersion is about constant, as in the outer parts of spirals, dwarf irregulars, and giant molecular clouds. The observed scaling of the star formation efficiency (SFR per unit CO) with the dense gas fraction (HCN/CO) is derived from the KS relationship when one tracer (HCN) is on the linear part and the other (CO) is on the 1.5 part. Observations of a threshold density or column density with a constant SFR per unit gas mass above the threshold are proposed to be selection effects, as are observations of star formation in only the dense parts of clouds. The model allows a derivation of all three KS relations using the probability distribution function of density with no thresholds for star formation. Failed galaxies and systems with sub-KS SFRs are predicted to have gas that is dominated by an equilibrium warm phase where the thermal Jeans length exceeds the Toomre length. A squared relation is predicted for molecular gas-dominated young galaxies.

  15. Small-threshold behaviour of two-loop self-energy diagrams: two-particle thresholds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berends, F.A.; Davydychev, A.I.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ., Moscow; Smirnov, V.A.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ., Moscow

    1996-01-01

    The behaviour of two-loop two-point diagrams at non-zero thresholds corresponding to two-particle cuts is analyzed. The masses involved in a cut and the external momentum are assumed to be small as compared to some of the other masses of the diagram. By employing general formulae of asymptotic expansions of Feynman diagrams in momenta and masses, we construct an algorithm to derive analytic approximations to the diagrams. In such a way, we calculate several first coefficients of the expansion. Since no conditions on relative values of the small masses and the external momentum are imposed, the threshold irregularities are described analytically. Numerical examples, using diagrams occurring in the standard model, illustrate the convergence of the expansion below the first large threshold. (orig.)

  16. EEG-based functional networks evoked by acupuncture at ST 36: A data-driven thresholding study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huiyan; Wang, Jiang; Yi, Guosheng; Deng, Bin; Zhou, Hexi

    2017-10-01

    This paper investigates how acupuncture at ST 36 modulates the brain functional network. 20 channel EEG signals from 15 healthy subjects are respectively recorded before, during and after acupuncture. The correlation between two EEG channels is calculated by using Pearson’s coefficient. A data-driven approach is applied to determine the threshold, which is performed by considering the connected set, connected edge and network connectivity. Based on such thresholding approach, the functional network in each acupuncture period is built with graph theory, and the associated functional connectivity is determined. We show that acupuncturing at ST 36 increases the connectivity of the EEG-based functional network, especially for the long distance ones between two hemispheres. The properties of the functional network in five EEG sub-bands are also characterized. It is found that the delta and gamma bands are affected more obviously by acupuncture than the other sub-bands. These findings highlight the modulatory effects of acupuncture on the EEG-based functional connectivity, which is helpful for us to understand how it participates in the cortical or subcortical activities. Further, the data-driven threshold provides an alternative approach to infer the functional connectivity under other physiological conditions.

  17. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  18. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  19. Influence of arousal threshold and depth of sleep on respiratory stability in man: analysis using a mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardo, G S; Evangelisti, C J; Cherniack, N S

    2009-12-01

    We examined the effect of arousals (shifts from sleep to wakefulness) on breathing during sleep using a mathematical model. The model consisted of a description of the fluid dynamics and mechanical properties of the upper airways and lungs, as well as a controller sensitive to arterial and brain changes in CO(2), changes in arterial oxygen, and a neural input, alertness. The body was divided into multiple gas store compartments connected by the circulation. Cardiac output was constant, and cerebral blood flows were sensitive to changes in O(2) and CO(2) levels. Arousal was considered to occur instantaneously when afferent respiratory chemical and neural stimulation reached a threshold value, while sleep occurred when stimulation fell below that value. In the case of rigid and nearly incompressible upper airways, lowering arousal threshold decreased the stability of breathing and led to the occurrence of repeated apnoeas. In more compressible upper airways, to maintain stability, increasing arousal thresholds and decreasing elasticity were linked approximately linearly, until at low elastances arousal thresholds had no effect on stability. Increased controller gain promoted instability. The architecture of apnoeas during unstable sleep changed with the arousal threshold and decreases in elasticity. With rigid airways, apnoeas were central. With lower elastances, apnoeas were mixed even with higher arousal thresholds. With very low elastances and still higher arousal thresholds, sleep consisted totally of obstructed apnoeas. Cycle lengths shortened as the sleep architecture changed from mixed apnoeas to total obstruction. Deeper sleep also tended to promote instability by increasing plant gain. These instabilities could be countered by arousal threshold increases which were tied to deeper sleep or accumulated aroused time, or by decreased controller gains.

  20. A Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Structured Vector Population and Seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakary Traoré

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of nonautonomous ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of malaria transmission with age structure for the vector population. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered as a positive periodic function which depends on climatic factors. The basic reproduction ratio of the model is obtained and we show that it is the threshold parameter between the extinction and the persistence of the disease. Thus, by applying the theorem of comparison and the theory of uniform persistence, we prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if it is greater than 1, then there exists at least one positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results.

  1. Semiautomatic bladder segmentation on CBCT using a population-based model for multiple-plan ART of bladder cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chai, Xiangfei; van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a novel semiautomatic bladder segmentation approach for selecting the appropriate plan from the library of plans for a multiple-plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) procedure. A population-based statistical bladder model was first built from a training data set (95

  2. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  3. Simulation of population response to ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource – Model and analytical solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, Tatiana G.; Kryshev, Alexander I.

    2016-01-01

    A dynamic mathematical model is formulated, predicting the development of radiation effects in a generic animal population, inhabiting an elemental ecosystem ‘population-limiting resource’. Differential equations of the model describe the dynamic responses to radiation damage of the following population characteristics: gross biomass; intrinsic fractions of healthy and reversibly damaged tissues in biomass; intrinsic concentrations of the self-repairing pool and the growth factor; and amount of the limiting resource available in the environment. Analytical formulae are found for the steady states of model variables as non-linear functions of the dose rate of chronic radiation exposure. Analytical solutions make it possible to predict the expected severity of radiation effects in a model ecosystem, including such endpoints as morbidity, mortality, life shortening, biosynthesis, and population biomass. Model parameters are selected from species data on lifespan, physiological growth and mortality rates, and individual radiosensitivity. Thresholds for population extinction can be analytically calculated for different animal species, examples are provided for generic mice and wolf populations. The ecosystem model demonstrates a compensatory effect of the environment on the development of radiation effects in wildlife. The model can be employed to construct a preliminary scale ‘radiation exposure-population effects’ for different animal species; species can be identified, which are vulnerable at a population level to chronic radiation exposure. - Highlights: • Mathematical model is formulated predicting radiation effects in elemental ecosystem. • Analytical formulae are found for steady states of variables as functions of exposure. • Severity of radiation effects are calculated, including population extinction. • Model parameterization is made for generic mice and wolf populations.

  4. Performance Analysis of a Threshold-Based Parallel Multiple Beam Selection Scheme for WDM FSO Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Sung Sik; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Ko, Young-Chai

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we statistically analyze the performance of a threshold-based parallel multiple beam selection scheme for a free-space optical (FSO) based system with wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) in cases where a pointing error has occurred

  5. SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES: Two-dimensional threshold voltage analytical model of DMG strained-silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Hongxia, Liu; Bin, Li; Lei, Cao; Bo, Yuan

    2010-08-01

    For the first time, a simple and accurate two-dimensional analytical model for the surface potential variation along the channel in fully depleted dual-material gate strained-Si-on-insulator (DMG SSOI) MOSFETs is developed. We investigate the improved short channel effect (SCE), hot carrier effect (HCE), drain-induced barrier-lowering (DIBL) and carrier transport efficiency for the novel structure MOSFET. The analytical model takes into account the effects of different metal gate lengths, work functions, the drain bias and Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The surface potential in the channel region exhibits a step potential, which can suppress SCE, HCE and DIBL. Also, strained-Si and SOI structure can improve the carrier transport efficiency, with strained-Si being particularly effective. Further, the threshold voltage model correctly predicts a “rollup" in threshold voltage with decreasing channel length ratios or Ge mole fraction in the relaxed SiGe buffer. The validity of the two-dimensional analytical model is verified using numerical simulations.

  6. Neurocomputational account of memory and perception: Thresholded and graded signals in the hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfman, Kane W; Aly, Mariam; Yonelinas, Andrew P

    2014-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that the hippocampus, a region critical for long-term memory, also supports certain forms of high-level visual perception. A seemingly paradoxical finding is that, unlike the thresholded hippocampal signals associated with memory, the hippocampus produces graded, strength-based signals in perception. This article tests a neurocomputational model of the hippocampus, based on the complementary learning systems framework, to determine if the same model can account for both memory and perception, and whether it produces the appropriate thresholded and strength-based signals in these two types of tasks. The simulations showed that the hippocampus, and most prominently the CA1 subfield, produced graded signals when required to discriminate between highly similar stimuli in a perception task, but generated thresholded patterns of activity in recognition memory. A threshold was observed in recognition memory because pattern completion occurred for only some trials and completely failed to occur for others; conversely, in perception, pattern completion always occurred because of the high degree of item similarity. These results offer a neurocomputational account of the distinct hippocampal signals associated with perception and memory, and are broadly consistent with proposals that CA1 functions as a comparator of expected versus perceived events. We conclude that the hippocampal computations required for high-level perceptual discrimination are congruous with current neurocomputational models that account for recognition memory, and fit neatly into a broader description of the role of the hippocampus for the processing of complex relational information. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Dose conversion coefficients for monoenergetic electrons incident on a realistic human eye model with different lens cell populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, P; Zankl, M; Schlattl, H; Vaz, P

    2011-11-07

    The radiation-induced posterior subcapsular cataract has long been generally accepted to be a deterministic effect that does not occur at doses below a threshold of at least 2 Gy. Recent epidemiological studies indicate that the threshold for cataract induction may be much lower or that there may be no threshold at all. A thorough study of this subject requires more accurate dose estimates for the eye lens than those available in ICRP Publication 74. Eye lens absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients for electron irradiation were calculated using a geometrical model of the eye that takes into account different cell populations of the lens epithelium, together with the MCNPX Monte Carlo radiation transport code package. For the cell population most sensitive to ionizing radiation-the germinative cells-absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients were determined that are up to a factor of 4.8 higher than the mean eye lens absorbed dose conversion coefficients for electron energies below 2 MeV. Comparison of the results with previously published values for a slightly different eye model showed generally good agreement for all electron energies. Finally, the influence of individual anatomical variability was quantified by positioning the lens at various depths below the cornea. A depth difference of 2 mm between the shallowest and the deepest location of the germinative zone can lead to a difference between the resulting absorbed doses of up to nearly a factor of 5000 for electron energy of 0.7 MeV.

  8. Dose conversion coefficients for monoenergetic electrons incident on a realistic human eye model with different lens cell populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogueira, P; Vaz, P; Zankl, M; Schlattl, H

    2011-01-01

    The radiation-induced posterior subcapsular cataract has long been generally accepted to be a deterministic effect that does not occur at doses below a threshold of at least 2 Gy. Recent epidemiological studies indicate that the threshold for cataract induction may be much lower or that there may be no threshold at all. A thorough study of this subject requires more accurate dose estimates for the eye lens than those available in ICRP Publication 74. Eye lens absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients for electron irradiation were calculated using a geometrical model of the eye that takes into account different cell populations of the lens epithelium, together with the MCNPX Monte Carlo radiation transport code package. For the cell population most sensitive to ionizing radiation-the germinative cells-absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients were determined that are up to a factor of 4.8 higher than the mean eye lens absorbed dose conversion coefficients for electron energies below 2 MeV. Comparison of the results with previously published values for a slightly different eye model showed generally good agreement for all electron energies. Finally, the influence of individual anatomical variability was quantified by positioning the lens at various depths below the cornea. A depth difference of 2 mm between the shallowest and the deepest location of the germinative zone can lead to a difference between the resulting absorbed doses of up to nearly a factor of 5000 for electron energy of 0.7 MeV.

  9. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  10. Alcohol and cirrhosis: dose--response or threshold effect?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Grønbaek, Morten; Tolstrup, Janne

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: General population studies have shown a strong association between alcohol intake and death from alcoholic cirrhosis, but whether this is a dose-response or a threshold effect remains unknown, and the relation among alcohol misusers has not been studied. METHODS: A cohort of 6152...... alcohol misusing men and women aged 15-83 were interviewed about drinking pattern and social issues and followed for 84,257 person-years. Outcome was alcoholic cirrhosis mortality. Data was analyzed by means of Cox-regression models. RESULTS: In this large prospective cohort study of alcohol misusers...... there was a 27 fold increased mortality from alcoholic cirrhosis in men and a 35 fold increased mortality from alcoholic cirrhosis in women compared to the Danish population. Number of drinks per day was not significantly associated with death from alcoholic cirrhosis, since there was no additional risk of death...

  11. Multilevel Thresholding Segmentation Based on Harmony Search Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Oliva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multilevel thresholding (MT algorithm based on the harmony search algorithm (HSA is introduced. HSA is an evolutionary method which is inspired in musicians improvising new harmonies while playing. Different to other evolutionary algorithms, HSA exhibits interesting search capabilities still keeping a low computational overhead. The proposed algorithm encodes random samples from a feasible search space inside the image histogram as candidate solutions, whereas their quality is evaluated considering the objective functions that are employed by the Otsu’s or Kapur’s methods. Guided by these objective values, the set of candidate solutions are evolved through the HSA operators until an optimal solution is found. Experimental results demonstrate the high performance of the proposed method for the segmentation of digital images.

  12. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  13. Noise reduction in Lidar signal using correlation-based EMD combined with soft thresholding and roughness penalty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jianhua; Zhu, Lingyan; Li, Hongxu; Xu, Fan; Liu, Binggang; Yang, Zhenbo

    2018-01-01

    Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is widely used to analyze the non-linear and non-stationary signals for noise reduction. In this study, a novel EMD-based denoising method, referred to as EMD with soft thresholding and roughness penalty (EMD-STRP), is proposed for the Lidar signal denoising. With the proposed method, the relevant and irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are first distinguished via a correlation coefficient. Then, the soft thresholding technique is applied to the irrelevant modes, and the roughness penalty technique is applied to the relevant modes to extract as much information as possible. The effectiveness of the proposed method was evaluated using three typical signals contaminated by white Gaussian noise. The denoising performance was then compared to the denoising capabilities of other techniques, such as correlation-based EMD partial reconstruction, correlation-based EMD hard thresholding, and wavelet transform. The use of EMD-STRP on the measured Lidar signal resulted in the noise being efficiently suppressed, with an improved signal to noise ratio of 22.25 dB and an extended detection range of 11 km.

  14. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anqi Miao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  15. Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. - Graphical abstract: Fig. Threshold models and resilience management for water quality. Display Omitted - Highlights: • Coupling urbanization and water environmental system. • Developing threshold models of the coupled land-water systems. • Nonlinear relations between water quality variables and landscape metrics. • Enhancing resilience management of coastal rapid urbanization. - We develop environmental threshold models and provide their implications on resilience management for a coupled land-water system with rapid urbanization.

  16. Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

    2014-10-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  17. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  18. thresholds of gully erosion in the coastal plains sands of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ada

    estimating thresholds for gully initiation and sustenance. The entire 413. Km2 Ikpa River basin was covered with grids 1km2 and random number table was used to select 15% of the target population in the basin. The pair-wise correlation technique was employed to establish the threshold values of vegetation cover, organic ...

  19. Threshold-based queuing system for performance analysis of cloud computing system with dynamic scaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Pechinkin, Alexander V. [Institute of Informatics Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian Federation); Samouylov, Konstantin E.; Gaidamaka, Yuliya V.; Gudkova, Irina A.; Sopin, Eduard S. [Telecommunication Systems Department, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-10

    Cloud computing is promising technology to manage and improve utilization of computing center resources to deliver various computing and IT services. For the purpose of energy saving there is no need to unnecessarily operate many servers under light loads, and they are switched off. On the other hand, some servers should be switched on in heavy load cases to prevent very long delays. Thus, waiting times and system operating cost can be maintained on acceptable level by dynamically adding or removing servers. One more fact that should be taken into account is significant server setup costs and activation times. For better energy efficiency, cloud computing system should not react on instantaneous increase or instantaneous decrease of load. That is the main motivation for using queuing systems with hysteresis for cloud computing system modelling. In the paper, we provide a model of cloud computing system in terms of multiple server threshold-based infinite capacity queuing system with hysteresis and noninstantanuous server activation. For proposed model, we develop a method for computing steady-state probabilities that allow to estimate a number of performance measures.

  20. Threshold-based queuing system for performance analysis of cloud computing system with dynamic scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Pechinkin, Alexander V.; Samouylov, Konstantin E.; Gaidamaka, Yuliya V.; Gudkova, Irina A.; Sopin, Eduard S.

    2015-01-01

    Cloud computing is promising technology to manage and improve utilization of computing center resources to deliver various computing and IT services. For the purpose of energy saving there is no need to unnecessarily operate many servers under light loads, and they are switched off. On the other hand, some servers should be switched on in heavy load cases to prevent very long delays. Thus, waiting times and system operating cost can be maintained on acceptable level by dynamically adding or removing servers. One more fact that should be taken into account is significant server setup costs and activation times. For better energy efficiency, cloud computing system should not react on instantaneous increase or instantaneous decrease of load. That is the main motivation for using queuing systems with hysteresis for cloud computing system modelling. In the paper, we provide a model of cloud computing system in terms of multiple server threshold-based infinite capacity queuing system with hysteresis and noninstantanuous server activation. For proposed model, we develop a method for computing steady-state probabilities that allow to estimate a number of performance measures

  1. Population cost-effectiveness of the Triple P parenting programme for the treatment of conduct disorder: an economic modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Filipa; Barendregt, Jan J; Feldman, Inna; Lee, Yong Yi; Sawyer, Michael G; Dadds, Mark R; Scott, James G; Mihalopoulos, Cathrine

    2017-12-29

    Parenting programmes are the recommended treatments of conduct disorders (CD) in children, but little is known about their longer term cost-effectiveness. This study aimed to evaluate the population cost-effectiveness of one of the most researched evidence-based parenting programmes, the Triple P-Positive Parenting Programme, delivered in a group and individual format, for the treatment of CD in children. A population-based multiple cohort decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of Triple P compared with a 'no intervention' scenario, using a health sector perspective. The model targeted a cohort of 5-9-year-old children with CD in Australia currently seeking treatment, and followed them until they reached adulthood (i.e., 18 years). Multivariate probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to incorporate uncertainty in the model parameters. Triple P was cost-effective compared to no intervention at a threshold of AU$50,000 per DALY averted when delivered in a group format [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) = $1013 per DALY averted; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 471-1956] and in an individual format (ICER = $20,498 per DALY averted; 95% UI 11,146-39,470). Evidence-based parenting programmes, such as the Triple P, for the treatment of CD among children appear to represent good value for money, when delivered in a group or an individual face-to-face format, with the group format being the most cost-effective option. The current model can be used for economic evaluations of other interventions targeting CD and in other settings.

  2. Deriving fuel-based emission factor thresholds to interpret heavy-duty vehicle roadside plume measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiros, David C; Smith, Jeremy D; Ham, Walter A; Robertson, William H; Huai, Tao; Ayala, Alberto; Hu, Shaohua

    2018-04-13

    Remote sensing devices have been used for decades to measure gaseous emissions from individual vehicles at the roadside. Systems have also been developed that entrain diluted exhaust and can also measure particulate matter (PM) emissions. In 2015, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) reported that 8% of in-field diesel particulate filters (DPF) on heavy-duty (HD) vehicles were malfunctioning and emitted about 70% of total diesel PM emissions from the DPF-equipped fleet. A new high-emitter problem in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet had emerged. Roadside exhaust plume measurements reflect a snapshot of real-world operation, typically lasting several seconds. In order to relate roadside plume measurements to laboratory emission tests, we analyzed carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), oxides of nitrogen (NO X ), and PM emissions collected from four HD vehicles during several driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. We examined the fuel-based emission factors corresponding to possible exceedances of emission standards as a function of vehicle power. Our analysis suggests that a typical HD vehicle will exceed the model year (MY) 2010 emission standards (of 0.2 g NO X /bhp-hr and 0.01 g PM/bhp-hr) by three times when fuel-based emission factors are 9.3 g NO X /kg fuel and 0.11 g PM/kg using the roadside plume measurement approach. Reported limits correspond to 99% confidence levels, which were calculated using the detection uncertainty of emissions analyzers, accuracy of vehicle power calculations, and actual emissions variability of fixed operational parameters. The PM threshold was determined for acceleration events between 0.47 and 1.4 mph/sec only, and the NO X threshold was derived from measurements where aftertreatment temperature was above 200°C. Anticipating a growing interest in real-world driving emissions, widespread implementation of roadside exhaust plume measurements as a compliment to in-use vehicle programs may benefit from expanding this analysis to a larger

  3. Carbon deposition thresholds on nickel-based solid oxide fuel cell anodes II. Steam:carbon ratio and current density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, J.; Kesler, O.

    2015-03-01

    For the second part of a two part publication, coking thresholds with respect to molar steam:carbon ratio (SC) and current density in nickel-based solid oxide fuel cells were determined. Anode-supported button cell samples were exposed to 2-component and 5-component gas mixtures with 1 ≤ SC ≤ 2 and zero fuel utilization for 10 h, followed by measurement of the resulting carbon mass. The effect of current density was explored by measuring carbon mass under conditions known to be prone to coking while increasing the current density until the cell was carbon-free. The SC coking thresholds were measured to be ∼1.04 and ∼1.18 at 600 and 700 °C, respectively. Current density experiments validated the thresholds measured with respect to fuel utilization and steam:carbon ratio. Coking thresholds at 600 °C could be predicted with thermodynamic equilibrium calculations when the Gibbs free energy of carbon was appropriately modified. Here, the Gibbs free energy of carbon on nickel-based anode support cermets was measured to be -6.91 ± 0.08 kJ mol-1. The results of this two part publication show that thermodynamic equilibrium calculations with appropriate modification to the Gibbs free energy of solid-phase carbon can be used to predict coking thresholds on nickel-based anodes at 600-700 °C.

  4. Modeling the residual effects and threshold saturation of training: a case study of Olympic swimmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellard, Philippe; Avalos, Marta; Millet, Gregoire; Lacoste, Lucien; Barale, Frederic; Chatard, Jean-Claude

    2005-02-01

    The aim of this study was to model the residual effects of training on the swimming performance and to compare a model that includes threshold saturation (MM) with the Banister model (BM). Seven Olympic swimmers were studied over a period of 4 +/- 2 years. For 3 training loads (low-intensity w(LIT), high-intensity w(HIT), and strength training w(ST)), 3 residual training effects were determined: short-term (STE) during the taper phase (i.e., 3 weeks before the performance [weeks 0, 1, and 2]), intermediate-term (ITE) during the intensity phase (weeks 3, 4, and 5), and long-term (LTE) during the volume phase (weeks 6, 7, and 8). ITE and LTE were positive for w(HIT) and w(LIT), respectively (p measures indicated that MM compares favorably with BM. Identifying individual training thresholds may help individualize the distribution of training loads.

  5. Performance improvement of per-user threshold based multiuser switched scheduling system

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Haewoon

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY This letter proposes a multiuser switched scheduling scheme with per-user threshold and post user selection and provides a generic analytical framework for determining the optimal feedback thresholds. The proposed scheme applies an individual feedback threshold for each user rather than a single common threshold for all users to achieve some capacity gain due to the flexibility of threshold selection as well as a lower scheduling outage probability. In addition, since scheduling outage may occur with a non-negligible probability, the proposed scheme employs post user selection in order to further improve the ergodic capacity, where the user with the highest potential for a higher channel quality than other users is selected. Numerical and simulation results show that the capacity gain by post user selection is significant when random sequence is used. Copyright © 2013 The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers.

  6. Societal costs and effects of implementing population-based mammography screening in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Maria Klitgaard; Niclasen, Birgit; Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    With a low breast cancer incidence and low population density, Greenland is geographically and organisationally challenged in implementing a cost effective breast cancer screening programme where a large proportion of the Greenlandic women will have to travel far to attend. The aim of this paper ...... transportation and accommodation costs and loss of productivity, and none would be accepted as cost-effective per YLS/QALY gained within a conventional threshold level. The least expensive strategy was regional screening with hotel accommodation.......With a low breast cancer incidence and low population density, Greenland is geographically and organisationally challenged in implementing a cost effective breast cancer screening programme where a large proportion of the Greenlandic women will have to travel far to attend. The aim of this paper...... is to evaluate the cost effectiveness and cost utility of different strategies for implementing population-based breast cancer screening in Greenland. Two strategies were evaluated: Centralised screening in the capital Nuuk and decentralised screening in the five municipal regions of Greenland. A cost...

  7. Threshold guidance update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.

    1986-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Last years' activities (1984) included the development of a threshold guidance dose, the development of threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose, the development of supporting documentation, review by a technical peer review committee, and review by the DOE community. As a result of the comments, areas have been identified for more extensive analysis, including an alternative basis for selection of the guidance dose and the development of quality assurance guidelines. Development of quality assurance guidelines will provide a reasonable basis for determining that a given waste stream qualifies as a threshold waste stream and can then be the basis for a more extensive cost-benefit analysis. The threshold guidance and supporting documentation will be revised, based on the comments received. The revised documents will be provided to DOE by early November. DOE-HQ has indicated that the revised documents will be available for review by DOE field offices and their contractors

  8. Comparison of memory thresholds for planar qudit geometries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Jacob; Jochym-O'Connor, Tomas; Gheorghiu, Vlad

    2017-11-01

    We introduce and analyze a new type of decoding algorithm called general color clustering, based on renormalization group methods, to be used in qudit color codes. The performance of this decoder is analyzed under a generalized bit-flip error model, and is used to obtain the first memory threshold estimates for qudit 6-6-6 color codes. The proposed decoder is compared with similar decoding schemes for qudit surface codes as well as the current leading qubit decoders for both sets of codes. We find that, as with surface codes, clustering performs sub-optimally for qubit color codes, giving a threshold of 5.6 % compared to the 8.0 % obtained through surface projection decoding methods. However, the threshold rate increases by up to 112% for large qudit dimensions, plateauing around 11.9 % . All the analysis is performed using QTop, a new open-source software for simulating and visualizing topological quantum error correcting codes.

  9. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  10. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

    2016-01-01

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  11. Optimal Policies for Random and Periodic Garbage Collections with Tenuring Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xufeng; Nakamura, Syouji; Nakagawa, Toshio

    It is an important problem to determine the tenuring threshold to meet the pause time goal for a generational garbage collector. From such viewpoint, this paper proposes two stochastic models based on the working schemes of a generational garbage collector: One is random collection which occurs at a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and the other is periodic collection which occurs at periodic times. Since the cost suffered for minor collection increases, as the amount of surviving objects accumulates, tenuring minor collection should be made at some tenuring threshold. Using the techniques of cumulative processes and reliability theory, expected cost rates with tenuring threshold are obtained, and optimal policies which minimize them are discussed analytically and computed numerically.

  12. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  13. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  14. Subthreshold and near-threshold K+-meson photoproduction on nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paryev, E.Ya.

    2000-01-01

    The inclusive K + -meson production in photon-induced reactions in the near-threshold and subthreshold energy regimes is analyzed for the one-step (γN → K + Y, Y = Λ, Σ) incoherent production processes on the basis of an appropriate new folding model that takes properly into account the struck-target nucleon-removal energy and the internal momentum distribution (nucleon spectral function), extracted from recent quasielastic-electron-scattering experiments and from many-body calculations based on realistic models of NN interaction. Simple parametrizations of the total and differential cross sections for K + production in photon-nucleon collisions are presented. A comparison of the model calculations of the K + differential cross sections for γ 12 C interactions in the threshold region with existing experimental data is given, which displays the contributions to K + production at considered incident energies from the use of the single-particle part, as well as high momentum and high removal energy part, of the nucleon spectral function. Detailed predictions for the K + total and differential cross sections for γ 2 H, γ 12 C, and γ 208 Pb interactions at subthreshold and near-threshold energies are provided. The effect of the uncertainties in the elementary K + -production cross sections on the K + yield is explored

  15. Learning to maximize reward rate: a model based on semi-Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Arash; Fakhari, Pegah; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2014-01-01

    WHEN ANIMALS HAVE TO MAKE A NUMBER OF DECISIONS DURING A LIMITED TIME INTERVAL, THEY FACE A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM: how much time they should spend on each decision in order to achieve the maximum possible total outcome. Deliberating more on one decision usually leads to more outcome but less time will remain for other decisions. In the framework of sequential sampling models, the question is how animals learn to set their decision threshold such that the total expected outcome achieved during a limited time is maximized. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework for answering this question. To this end, we consider an experimental design in which each trial can come from one of the several possible "conditions." A condition specifies the difficulty of the trial, the reward, the penalty and so on. We show that to maximize the expected reward during a limited time, the subject should set a separate value of decision threshold for each condition. We propose a model of learning the optimal value of decision thresholds based on the theory of semi-Markov decision processes (SMDP). In our model, the experimental environment is modeled as an SMDP with each "condition" being a "state" and the value of decision thresholds being the "actions" taken in those states. The problem of finding the optimal decision thresholds then is cast as the stochastic optimal control problem of taking actions in each state in the corresponding SMDP such that the average reward rate is maximized. Our model utilizes a biologically plausible learning algorithm to solve this problem. The simulation results show that at the beginning of learning the model choses high values of decision threshold which lead to sub-optimal performance. With experience, however, the model learns to lower the value of decision thresholds till finally it finds the optimal values.

  16. Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds : East Asia 1970-2002 [dating currency crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lestano, L; Jacobs, Jan P. A. M.

    2007-01-01

    Generally a currency crisis is defined to occur if an index of currency pressure exceeds a threshold. This paper compares currency crisis dating methods. For two definitions of currency pressure we contrast ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds. We illustrate the methods with data of six East

  17. Exploring the persistence of stream-dwelling trout populations under alternative real-world turbidity regimes with an individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

    2009-01-01

    We explored the effects of elevated turbidity on stream-resident populations of coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii using a spatially explicit individual-based model. Turbidity regimes were contrasted by means of 15-year simulations in a third-order stream in northwestern California. The alternative regimes were based on multiple-year, continuous...

  18. Threshold quantum secret sharing based on single qubit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Changbin; Miao, Fuyou; Meng, Keju; Yu, Yue

    2018-03-01

    Based on unitary phase shift operation on single qubit in association with Shamir's ( t, n) secret sharing, a ( t, n) threshold quantum secret sharing scheme (or ( t, n)-QSS) is proposed to share both classical information and quantum states. The scheme uses decoy photons to prevent eavesdropping and employs the secret in Shamir's scheme as the private value to guarantee the correctness of secret reconstruction. Analyses show it is resistant to typical intercept-and-resend attack, entangle-and-measure attack and participant attacks such as entanglement swapping attack. Moreover, it is easier to realize in physic and more practical in applications when compared with related ones. By the method in our scheme, new ( t, n)-QSS schemes can be easily constructed using other classical ( t, n) secret sharing.

  19. Threshold-Based Random Charging Scheme for Decentralized PEV Charging Operation in a Smart Grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Ojin; Kim, Pilkee; Yoon, Yong-Jin

    2016-12-26

    Smart grids have been introduced to replace conventional power distribution systems without real time monitoring for accommodating the future market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). When a large number of PEVs require simultaneous battery charging, charging coordination techniques have become one of the most critical factors to optimize the PEV charging performance and the conventional distribution system. In this case, considerable computational complexity of a central controller and exchange of real time information among PEVs may occur. To alleviate these problems, a novel threshold-based random charging (TBRC) operation for a decentralized charging system is proposed. Using PEV charging thresholds and random access rates, the PEVs themselves can participate in the charging requests. As PEVs with a high battery state do not transmit the charging requests to the central controller, the complexity of the central controller decreases due to the reduction of the charging requests. In addition, both the charging threshold and the random access rate are statistically calculated based on the average of supply power of the PEV charging system that do not require a real time update. By using the proposed TBRC with a tolerable PEV charging degradation, a 51% reduction of the PEV charging requests is achieved.

  20. Effects of noise and confidence thresholds in nominal and metric Axelrod dynamics of social influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sanctis, Luca; Galla, Tobias

    2009-04-01

    We study the effects of bounded confidence thresholds and of interaction and external noise on Axelrod’s model of social influence. Our study is based on a combination of numerical simulations and an integration of the mean-field master equation describing the system in the thermodynamic limit. We find that interaction thresholds affect the system only quantitatively, but that they do not alter the basic phase structure. The known crossover between an ordered and a disordered state in finite systems subject to external noise persists in models with general confidence threshold. Interaction noise here facilitates the dynamics and reduces relaxation times. We also study Axelrod systems with metric features and point out similarities and differences compared to models with nominal features.

  1. Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

    2016-03-01

    We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

  2. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  3. A Three-Threshold Learning Rule Approaches the Maximal Capacity of Recurrent Neural Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Alemi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the theoretical foundations of how memories are encoded and retrieved in neural populations is a central challenge in neuroscience. A popular theoretical scenario for modeling memory function is the attractor neural network scenario, whose prototype is the Hopfield model. The model simplicity and the locality of the synaptic update rules come at the cost of a poor storage capacity, compared with the capacity achieved with perceptron learning algorithms. Here, by transforming the perceptron learning rule, we present an online learning rule for a recurrent neural network that achieves near-maximal storage capacity without an explicit supervisory error signal, relying only upon locally accessible information. The fully-connected network consists of excitatory binary neurons with plastic recurrent connections and non-plastic inhibitory feedback stabilizing the network dynamics; the memory patterns to be memorized are presented online as strong afferent currents, producing a bimodal distribution for the neuron synaptic inputs. Synapses corresponding to active inputs are modified as a function of the value of the local fields with respect to three thresholds. Above the highest threshold, and below the lowest threshold, no plasticity occurs. In between these two thresholds, potentiation/depression occurs when the local field is above/below an intermediate threshold. We simulated and analyzed a network of binary neurons implementing this rule and measured its storage capacity for different sizes of the basins of attraction. The storage capacity obtained through numerical simulations is shown to be close to the value predicted by analytical calculations. We also measured the dependence of capacity on the strength of external inputs. Finally, we quantified the statistics of the resulting synaptic connectivity matrix, and found that both the fraction of zero weight synapses and the degree of symmetry of the weight matrix increase with the

  4. Kuramoto model with uniformly spaced frequencies: Finite-N asymptotics of the locking threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottino-Löffler, Bertrand; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We study phase locking in the Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators in the special case where the number of oscillators, N, is large but finite, and the oscillators' natural frequencies are evenly spaced on a given interval. In this case, stable phase-locked solutions are known to exist if and only if the frequency interval is narrower than a certain critical width, called the locking threshold. For infinite N, the exact value of the locking threshold was calculated 30 years ago; however, the leading corrections to it for finite N have remained unsolved analytically. Here we derive an asymptotic formula for the locking threshold when N≫1. The leading correction to the infinite-N result scales like either N^{-3/2} or N^{-1}, depending on whether the frequencies are evenly spaced according to a midpoint rule or an end-point rule. These scaling laws agree with numerical results obtained by Pazó [D. Pazó, Phys. Rev. E 72, 046211 (2005)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.72.046211]. Moreover, our analysis yields the exact prefactors in the scaling laws, which also match the numerics.

  5. Threshold effect under nonlinear limitation of the intensity of high-power light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tereshchenko, S A; Podgaetskii, V M; Gerasimenko, A Yu; Savel'ev, M S

    2015-01-01

    A model is proposed to describe the properties of limiters of high-power laser radiation, which takes into account the threshold character of nonlinear interaction of radiation with the working medium of the limiter. The generally accepted non-threshold model is a particular case of the threshold model if the threshold radiation intensity is zero. Experimental z-scan data are used to determine the nonlinear optical characteristics of media with carbon nanotubes, polymethine and pyran dyes, zinc selenide, porphyrin-graphene and fullerene-graphene. A threshold effect of nonlinear interaction between laser radiation and some of investigated working media of limiters is revealed. It is shown that the threshold model more adequately describes experimental z-scan data. (nonlinear optical phenomena)

  6. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  7. Population pharmacokinetics of busulfan in pediatric and young adult patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplant: a model-based dosing algorithm for personalized therapy and implementation into routine clinical use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-Boyle, Janel R; Savic, Rada; Yan, Shirley; Bartelink, Imke; Musick, Lisa; French, Deborah; Law, Jason; Horn, Biljana; Cowan, Morton J; Dvorak, Christopher C

    2015-04-01

    Population pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of busulfan in children have shown that individualized model-based algorithms provide improved targeted busulfan therapy when compared with conventional dose guidelines. The adoption of population PK models into routine clinical practice has been hampered by the tendency of pharmacologists to develop complex models too impractical for clinicians to use. The authors aimed to develop a population PK model for busulfan in children that can reliably achieve therapeutic exposure (concentration at steady state) and implement a simple model-based tool for the initial dosing of busulfan in children undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation. Model development was conducted using retrospective data available in 90 pediatric and young adult patients who had undergone hematopoietic cell transplantation with busulfan conditioning. Busulfan drug levels and potential covariates influencing drug exposure were analyzed using the nonlinear mixed effects modeling software, NONMEM. The final population PK model was implemented into a clinician-friendly Microsoft Excel-based tool and used to recommend initial doses of busulfan in a group of 21 pediatric patients prospectively dosed based on the population PK model. Modeling of busulfan time-concentration data indicates that busulfan clearance displays nonlinearity in children, decreasing up to approximately 20% between the concentrations of 250-2000 ng/mL. Important patient-specific covariates found to significantly impact busulfan clearance were actual body weight and age. The percentage of individuals achieving a therapeutic concentration at steady state was significantly higher in subjects receiving initial doses based on the population PK model (81%) than in historical controls dosed on conventional guidelines (52%) (P = 0.02). When compared with the conventional dosing guidelines, the model-based algorithm demonstrates significant improvement for providing targeted busulfan therapy in

  8. Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for the Human Lactational Transfer of PCB 153 with Consideration of Worldwide Human Biomonitoring Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redding, Laurel E.; Sohn, Michael D.; McKone, Thomas E.; Wang, Shu-Li; Hsieh, Dennis P. H.; Yang, Raymond S. H.

    2008-03-01

    We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of PCB 153 in women, and predict its transfer via lactation to infants. The model is the first human, population-scale lactational model for PCB 153. Data in the literature provided estimates for model development and for performance assessment. Physiological parameters were taken from a cohort in Taiwan and from reference values in the literature. We estimated partition coefficients based on chemical structure and the lipid content in various body tissues. Using exposure data in Japan, we predicted acquired body burden of PCB 153 at an average childbearing age of 25 years and compare predictions to measurements from studies in multiple countries. Forward-model predictions agree well with human biomonitoring measurements, as represented by summary statistics and uncertainty estimates. The model successfully describes the range of possible PCB 153 dispositions in maternal milk, suggesting a promising option for back estimating doses for various populations. One example of reverse dosimetry modeling was attempted using our PBPK model for possible exposure scenarios in Canadian Inuits who had the highest level of PCB 153 in their milk in the world.

  9. Effects of southern highbush blueberry cultivar and treatment threshold on flower thrips populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Elena M; Liburd, Oscar E; England, Gary K

    2012-04-01

    In Florida, southern highbush (SHB) blueberries (Vaccinium corymbosum L. x Vaccinium darrowi Camp) are grown for a highly profitable early season fresh market. Flower thrips are the key pest of SHB blueberries, and Frankliniella bispinosa (Morgan) is the most common species found. Flower thrips injure blueberry flowers by feeding and ovipositing in all developing tissues. These injuries can lead to scarring of developing fruit. The objectives of this study were to determine the relationship between thrips and yield in different SHB blueberry cultivars and to determine an action threshold. Experiments were conducted during early spring 2007 and 2008 on four farms; a research farm in Citra, FL; and three commercial farms, two in Hernando Co., FL., and one in Lake Co., FL. At the Citra farm, 'Emerald', 'Jewel', 'Millennia', and 'Star' blueberries were compared in 2007, and all but Star were compared in 2008. On the Hernando and Lake Co. farms, two treatment thresholds (100 and 200 thrips per trap) and an untreated control and four cultivars (Emerald, Jewel, Millennia, and 'Windsor') were compared. Emerald consistently had more thrips per trap and per flower than the other cultivars on all four farms. However, this did not always lead to an increase in fruit injury. Thrips numbers exceeded the threshold on only one farm in 2007, and there was a significantly lower proportion of injured and malformed fruit in the 100 thrips per trap threshold treatment compared with the control on this farm.

  10. Baryon-antibaryon threshold and ω-baryonium mixing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavai, R.V.

    1981-01-01

    It is shown that in any dual-topological-unitarization model of ω-baryonium (B) mixing at the cylinder level, in which the production of baryon-antibaryon (bb-bar) pairs can take place only above a certain threshold energy, the phenomenologically relevant ω and B trajectories do not mix below bb-bar threshold. However, their couplings to external particles do get modified. The ω-B mixing angle theta/sub omegahyphenB/, which characterizes these coupling modification effects below bb-bar threshold at t = 0, is estimated in some models. These estimates are found to agree reasonably well with the existing phenomenological bound on theta/sub omegahyphenB/

  11. Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Thailand using annual dataset during 1990 and 2015. The threshold model is estimated for different levels of threshold inflation rate. The results suggest that the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slow growth is estimated at 3 percent. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is apparent above this threshold level of inflation. In other words, the inflation rat...

  12. Dual-functional Memory and Threshold Resistive Switching Based on the Push-Pull Mechanism of Oxygen Ions

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Yi-Jen

    2016-04-07

    The combination of nonvolatile memory switching and volatile threshold switching functions of transition metal oxides in crossbar memory arrays is of great potential for replacing charge-based flash memory in very-large-scale integration. Here, we show that the resistive switching material structure, (amorphous TiOx)/(Ag nanoparticles)/(polycrystalline TiOx), fabricated on the textured-FTO substrate with ITO as the top electrode exhibits both the memory switching and threshold switching functions. When the device is used for resistive switching, it is forming-free for resistive memory applications with low operation voltage (<±1 V) and self-compliance to current up to 50 μA. When it is used for threshold switching, the low threshold current is beneficial for improving the device selectivity. The variation of oxygen distribution measured by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy indicates the formation or rupture of conducting filaments in the device at different resistance states. It is therefore suggested that the push and pull actions of oxygen ions in the amorphous TiOx and polycrystalline TiOx films during the voltage sweep account for the memory switching and threshold switching properties in the device.

  13. Thresholds in chemical respiratory sensitisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Stella A; Arts, Josje H E; Ehnes, Colin; Hindle, Stuart; Hollnagel, Heli M; Poole, Alan; Suto, Hidenori; Kimber, Ian

    2015-07-03

    There is a continuing interest in determining whether it is possible to identify thresholds for chemical allergy. Here allergic sensitisation of the respiratory tract by chemicals is considered in this context. This is an important occupational health problem, being associated with rhinitis and asthma, and in addition provides toxicologists and risk assessors with a number of challenges. In common with all forms of allergic disease chemical respiratory allergy develops in two phases. In the first (induction) phase exposure to a chemical allergen (by an appropriate route of exposure) causes immunological priming and sensitisation of the respiratory tract. The second (elicitation) phase is triggered if a sensitised subject is exposed subsequently to the same chemical allergen via inhalation. A secondary immune response will be provoked in the respiratory tract resulting in inflammation and the signs and symptoms of a respiratory hypersensitivity reaction. In this article attention has focused on the identification of threshold values during the acquisition of sensitisation. Current mechanistic understanding of allergy is such that it can be assumed that the development of sensitisation (and also the elicitation of an allergic reaction) is a threshold phenomenon; there will be levels of exposure below which sensitisation will not be acquired. That is, all immune responses, including allergic sensitisation, have threshold requirement for the availability of antigen/allergen, below which a response will fail to develop. The issue addressed here is whether there are methods available or clinical/epidemiological data that permit the identification of such thresholds. This document reviews briefly relevant human studies of occupational asthma, and experimental models that have been developed (or are being developed) for the identification and characterisation of chemical respiratory allergens. The main conclusion drawn is that although there is evidence that the

  14. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  15. The impact of public debt on the twin imbalances in Europe: A threshold model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šuliková Veronika

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent empirical research rejecting twin deficits in indebted countries and current account imbalances adjustment in Europe led to the idea to test the twin imbalances at different public debt-to-GDP intervals. The analysis covers 14 EU countries over the time period 1995-2012. A panel data threshold model with fixed effects estimates two debt-to-GDP thresholds (40.2% and 96.6%, which determine three debt-to-GDP intervals in the twin relationship. If public debtto-GDP is less than 40.2%, the model determines a negative relationship (twin divergence between budget balance and current account. Twin deficits (surpluses are confirmed exclusively if debt-to-GDP is in the interval between 40.2% and 96.6%. A twin divergence is also confirmed if public debt-to-GDP is more than 96.6% (e.g., as in Greece and Italy. The results confirm that increased indebtedness in European countries contributed to their current account imbalance adjustment.

  16. Population-Based Trachoma Mapping in Six Evaluation Units of Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Robert; Macleod, Colin; Pahau, David; Sokana, Oliver; Keys, Drew; Burnett, Anthea; Willis, Rebecca; Wabulembo, Geoffrey; Garap, Jambi; Solomon, Anthony W

    2016-01-01

    We sought to determine the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years, and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in those aged ≥15 years, in suspected trachoma-endemic areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG). We carried out six population-based prevalence surveys using the protocol developed as part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. A total of 19,013 individuals were sampled for inclusion, with 15,641 (82.3%) consenting to participate. Four evaluation units had prevalences of TF in children ≥10%, above which threshold the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin for at least three years; Western Province (South Fly/Daru) 11.2% (95% confidence interval, CI, 6.9-17.0%), Southern Highlands (East) 12.2% (95% CI 9.6-15.0%), Southern Highlands (West) 11.7% (95% CI 8.5-15.3%), and West New Britain 11.4% (95% CI 8.7-13.9%). TF prevalence was 5.0-9.9% in Madang (9.4%, 95% CI 6.1-13.0%) and National Capital District (6.0%. 95% CI 3.2-9.1%) where consideration of a single round of MDA is warranted. Cases of TT were not found outside West New Britain, in which four cases were seen, generating an estimated population-level prevalence of TT in adults of 0.10% (95% CI 0.00-0.40%) for West New Britain, below the WHO elimination threshold of 0.2% of those aged ≥15 years. Trachoma is a public health issue in PNG. However, other than in West New Britain, there are few data to support the idea that trachoma is a cause of blindness in PNG. Further research is needed to understand the stimulus for the active trachoma phenotype in these populations.

  17. Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

  18. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  19. Influence of a threshold existence on the sanitary consequences of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nifenecker, H.

    2001-11-01

    The justification of the application of the dose response relationship without threshold to the calculation of the fatal cancers number in the case of an accidental irradiation of a population is discussed. The hypothesis of a harmlessness low threshold is examined. The existence of a threshold even low reduces significantly the number of victims. A simulation case is studied. (N.C.)

  20. Weighted-noise threshold based channel estimation for OFDM ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Existing optimal time-domain thresholds exhibit suboptimal behavior for completely unavailable KCS ... Compared with no truncation case, truncation improved the MSE ... channel estimation errors has been studied. ...... Consumer Electron.

  1. Part of celiac population still at risk despite current gluten thresholds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruins Slot, I.D.; Bremer, M.G.E.G.; Hamer, R.J.; Fels, van der Ine

    2015-01-01

    In order to assist celiac disease (CD) patients in making safe food choices, gluten-free food products are labelled as such. The exact meaning of the gluten-free label differs throughout the world. This paper discusses the different thresholds that are currently used to label products gluten-free

  2. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Johnson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1 lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2 distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3 the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  3. Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

    2016-01-01

    The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

  4. Irreversible mean-field model of the critical behavior of charge-density waves below the threshold for sliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    1993-05-01

    A mean-field (MF) model of the critical behavior of charge-density waves below the threshold for sliding is proposed, which replaces the combined effect of the pinning force and of the forces exerted by the neighbors on a given particle n by an effective force threshold Xn. It allows one to rationalize the numerical results of Middleton and Fisher [Phys. Rev. Lett. 66 (1991) 92] on the divergence of the polarization and of the largest correlation length and of Pla and Nori [Phys. Rev. Lett. 67 (1991) 919] on the distribution D( d) of sliding bursts of size d, measured in narrow intervals of driving fields E at a finite distance below the threshold Ec.

  5. Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development