WorldWideScience

Sample records for population model tool

  1. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  2. Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Edward H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Green, Nicholas S.; Albers, Janice L.

    2016-02-10

    The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level.The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource

  3. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  4. Master Middle Ware: A Tool to Integrate Water Resources and Fish Population Dynamics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Thompson, L. C.; Kilduff, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Linking models that investigate separate components of ecosystem processes has the potential to unify messages regarding management decisions by evaluating potential trade-offs in a cohesive framework. This project aimed to improve the ability of riparian resource managers to forecast future water availability conditions and resultant fish habitat suitability, in order to better inform their management decisions. To accomplish this goal, we developed a middleware tool that is capable of linking and overseeing the operations of two existing models, a water resource planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and a habitat-based fish population dynamics model (WEAPhish). First, we designed the Master Middle Ware (MMW) software in Visual Basic for Application® in one Excel® file that provided a familiar framework for both data input and output Second, MMW was used to link and jointly operate WEAP and WEAPhish, using Visual Basic Application (VBA) macros to implement system level calls to run the models. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, hydrological, biological, and middleware model components were developed for the Butte Creek basin. This tributary of the Sacramento River, California is managed for both hydropower and the persistence of a threatened population of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). While we have demonstrated the use of MMW for a particular watershed and fish population, MMW can be customized for use with different rivers and fish populations, assuming basic data requirements are met. This model integration improves on ad hoc linkages for managing data transfer between software programs by providing a consistent, user-friendly, and familiar interface across different model implementations. Furthermore, the data-viewing capabilities of MMW facilitate the rapid interpretation of model results by hydrologists, fisheries biologists, and resource managers, in order to accelerate learning and management decision

  5. The ArcSDE GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool for Savannah River Site Emergency Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCLANE, TRACY; JONES, DWIGHT

    2005-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is a 310-square-mile Department of Energy site located near Aiken, South Carolina. With a workforce of over 10,000 employees and subcontractors, SRS emergency personnel must be able to respond to an emergency event in a timely and effective manner, in order to ensure the safety and security of the Site. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provides the technology needed to give managers and emergency personnel the information they need to make quick and effective decisions. In the event of a site evacuation, knowing the number of on-site personnel to evacuate from a given area is an essential piece of information for emergency staff. SRS has developed a GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool to quickly communicate real-time information that summarizes employee populations by facility area and building and then generates dynamic maps that illustrate output statistics

  6. Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

    2012-12-01

    A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  7. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  8. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  9. Statistical Tools for Fitting Models of the Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance to Data from Marine Mammal Populations (PCAD Tools II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Interim PCOD approach. In both of these case studies we relied on expert knowledge to link disturbance to vital rates. In the right whale case study...the Interim Population Consequences of Disturbance ( PCoD ) Approach: Quantifying and Assessing the Effects of UK Offshore Renewable Energy

  10. Comparison of Data Development Tools for Populating Cognitive Models in Social Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    completed, the Bayesian network shell needed to be developed for later input into the CG model. CG uses a software package like Netica or Weka for the...billions of dollars on a benefits package that includes money for home loans, new apartments and payments to government workers, students and the...called on the alliance and its partners to intensify airstrikes on Libyan government troops to protect civilians, prompting an unusual public retort

  11. Evaluation of ecosystem simulation models as tools for assessment of power plant impacts on fish populations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.L.

    1984-07-01

    This report summarizes work on evaluating the usefulness of models in assessing power plant impacts. Models were found to be most useful in suggesting frequency and replication for monitoring programs. Models also were useful in indicating where further data are needed. The modeling work on Lake Ontario and Lake Keowee indicated difficulties in using monitoring data for model construction and validation

  12. Green Infrastructure Models and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this project is to modify and refine existing models and develop new tools to support decision making for the complete green infrastructure (GI) project lifecycle, including the planning and implementation of stormwater control in urban and agricultural settings,...

  13. Exposure Assessment Tools by Lifestages and Populations - General Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  14. The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

  15. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    by proposing potential subsequent design issues. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, these decisions are typically not connected to the models created during...... integration of formerly disconnected tools improves tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  16. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  17. Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Sharon

    2016-08-01

    The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

    2009-11-01

    Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

  19. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  20. Alien wavelength modeling tool and field trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sambo, N.; Sgambelluri, A.; Secondini, M.

    2015-01-01

    A modeling tool is presented for pre-FEC BER estimation of PM-QPSK alien wavelength signals. A field trial is demonstrated and used as validation of the tool's correctness. A very close correspondence between the performance of the field trial and the one predicted by the modeling tool has been...

  1. Computer-Aided Modelling Methods and Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    The development of models for a range of applications requires methods and tools. In many cases a reference model is required that allows the generation of application specific models that are fit for purpose. There are a range of computer aided modelling tools available that help to define the m...

  2. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  3. Performability Modelling Tools, Evaluation Techniques and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    1990-01-01

    This thesis deals with three aspects of quantitative evaluation of fault-tolerant and distributed computer and communication systems: performability evaluation techniques, performability modelling tools, and performability modelling applications. Performability modelling is a relatively new

  4. Redwoods: a population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, C A

    1971-04-23

    The chief conclusion to be drawn from the results of this study is that redwoods are amazingly vigorous. The results support both the lumber companies and the conservationists. There is no question that old growth giant redwoods must be preserved. Only commercial greed could be a basis for refuting that stand. On the other hand, the lumber companies seem to be supported in their contention that redwoods can be farmed without driving them to extinction. The central issue revolves around the old trees. And here profit is the big factor. Lumbering is an important industry in California, and redwood lumbering represents about 20 percent of the industry (l). Most of the big names in timber, such as Weyerhaeuser and Georgia-Pacific, are involved in logging the California redwood. At the current rate of logging, particularly of old growth stands, the Bank of America estimates that employment in Humboldt County will be down significantly by 1975 (4). It has been argued that tourism would more than compensate for the lower employment in logging. But not if the trees that the tourists come to see are gone. Why can't young and mature trees be harvested at a reasonable rate, the old trees saved, and both tourism and logging flourish? The question posed earlier has been answered. Redwood growth and survival can be modeled, using matrix methods in a new context. Meaningful conclusions may be drawn. And the results are sufficiently tantalizing to inspire further research.

  5. An evaluation of BPMN modeling tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.; Reijers, H.A.; Dijkman, R.M.; Mendling, J.; Weidlich, M.

    2010-01-01

    Various BPMN modeling tools are available and it is close to impossible to understand their functional differences without simply trying them out. This paper presents an evaluation framework and presents the outcomes of its application to a set of five BPMN modeling tools. We report on various

  6. Software Engineering Tools for Scientific Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Marc; Saboo, Pallabi; Sonsini, Mike

    2013-01-01

    Software tools were constructed to address issues the NASA Fortran development community faces, and they were tested on real models currently in use at NASA. These proof-of-concept tools address the High-End Computing Program and the Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program. Two examples are the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model in Cell Fortran on the Cell Broadband Engine, and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled atmosphere- ocean model called ModelE, written in fixed format Fortran.

  7. Tools for Genetic Studies in Experimental Populations of Polyploids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. Bourke

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Polyploid organisms carry more than two copies of each chromosome, a condition rarely tolerated in animals but which occurs relatively frequently in the plant kingdom. One of the principal challenges faced by polyploid organisms is to evolve stable meiotic mechanisms to faithfully transmit genetic information to the next generation upon which the study of inheritance is based. In this review we look at the tools available to the research community to better understand polyploid inheritance, many of which have only recently been developed. Most of these tools are intended for experimental populations (rather than natural populations, facilitating genomics-assisted crop improvement and plant breeding. This is hardly surprising given that a large proportion of domesticated plant species are polyploid. We focus on three main areas: (1 polyploid genotyping; (2 genetic and physical mapping; and (3 quantitative trait analysis and genomic selection. We also briefly review some miscellaneous topics such as the mode of inheritance and the availability of polyploid simulation software. The current polyploid analytic toolbox includes software for assigning marker genotypes (and in particular, estimating the dosage of marker alleles in the heterozygous condition, establishing chromosome-scale linkage phase among marker alleles, constructing (short-range haplotypes, generating linkage maps, performing genome-wide association studies (GWAS and quantitative trait locus (QTL analyses, and simulating polyploid populations. These tools can also help elucidate the mode of inheritance (disomic, polysomic or a mixture of both as in segmental allopolyploids or reveal whether double reduction and multivalent chromosomal pairing occur. An increasing number of polyploids (or associated diploids are being sequenced, leading to publicly available reference genome assemblies. Much work remains in order to keep pace with developments in genomic technologies. However, such

  8. Tools for Genetic Studies in Experimental Populations of Polyploids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourke, Peter M; Voorrips, Roeland E; Visser, Richard G F; Maliepaard, Chris

    2018-01-01

    Polyploid organisms carry more than two copies of each chromosome, a condition rarely tolerated in animals but which occurs relatively frequently in the plant kingdom. One of the principal challenges faced by polyploid organisms is to evolve stable meiotic mechanisms to faithfully transmit genetic information to the next generation upon which the study of inheritance is based. In this review we look at the tools available to the research community to better understand polyploid inheritance, many of which have only recently been developed. Most of these tools are intended for experimental populations (rather than natural populations), facilitating genomics-assisted crop improvement and plant breeding. This is hardly surprising given that a large proportion of domesticated plant species are polyploid. We focus on three main areas: (1) polyploid genotyping; (2) genetic and physical mapping; and (3) quantitative trait analysis and genomic selection. We also briefly review some miscellaneous topics such as the mode of inheritance and the availability of polyploid simulation software. The current polyploid analytic toolbox includes software for assigning marker genotypes (and in particular, estimating the dosage of marker alleles in the heterozygous condition), establishing chromosome-scale linkage phase among marker alleles, constructing (short-range) haplotypes, generating linkage maps, performing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and quantitative trait locus (QTL) analyses, and simulating polyploid populations. These tools can also help elucidate the mode of inheritance (disomic, polysomic or a mixture of both as in segmental allopolyploids) or reveal whether double reduction and multivalent chromosomal pairing occur. An increasing number of polyploids (or associated diploids) are being sequenced, leading to publicly available reference genome assemblies. Much work remains in order to keep pace with developments in genomic technologies. However, such technologies

  9. Model Checking Markov Chains: Techniques and Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zapreev, I.S.

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation deals with four important aspects of model checking Markov chains: the development of efficient model-checking tools, the improvement of model-checking algorithms, the efficiency of the state-space reduction techniques, and the development of simulation-based model-checking

  10. Spatial Modeling Tools for Cell Biology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Przekwas, Andrzej; Friend, Tom; Teixeira, Rodrigo; Chen, Z. J; Wilkerson, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    .... Scientific potentials and military relevance of computational biology and bioinformatics have inspired DARPA/IPTO's visionary BioSPICE project to develop computational framework and modeling tools for cell biology...

  11. Population Pharmacokinetics of Tracers: A New Tool for Medical Imaging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandia, Peggy; Jaudet, Cyril; Chatelut, Etienne; Concordet, Didier

    2017-02-01

    Positron emission tomography-computed tomography is a medical imaging method measuring the activity of a radiotracer chosen to accumulate in cancer cells. A recent trend of medical imaging analysis is to account for the radiotracer's pharmacokinetic properties at a voxel (three-dimensional-pixel) level to separate the different tissues. These analyses are closely linked to population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling. Kineticists possess the cultural background to improve medical imaging analysis. This article stresses the common points with population pharmacokinetics and highlights the methodological locks that need to be lifted.

  12. Comparison of two different modelling tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brix, Wiebke; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a test case is solved using two different modelling tools, Engineering Equation Solver (EES) and WinDali, in order to compare the tools. The system of equations solved, is a static model of an evaporator used for refrigeration. The evaporator consists of two parallel channels......, and it is investigated how a non-uniform airflow influences the refrigerant mass flow rate distribution and the total cooling capacity of the heat exchanger. It is shown that the cooling capacity decreases significantly with increasing maldistribution of the airflow. Comparing the two simulation tools it is found...

  13. Cockpit System Situational Awareness Modeling Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, John; Lebiere, Christian; Shay, Rick; Latorella, Kara

    2004-01-01

    This project explored the possibility of predicting pilot situational awareness (SA) using human performance modeling techniques for the purpose of evaluating developing cockpit systems. The Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT) was combined with the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive modeling architecture to produce a tool that can model both the discrete tasks of pilots and the cognitive processes associated with SA. The techniques for using this tool to predict SA were demonstrated using the newly developed Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) system. By providing an SA prediction tool to cockpit system designers, cockpit concepts can be assessed early in the design process while providing a cost-effective complement to the traditional pilot-in-the-loop experiments and data collection techniques.

  14. Freezing African elephant semen as a new population management tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hermes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The captive elephant population is not self-sustaining and with a limited number of breeding bulls, its genetic diversity is in decline. One way to overcome this is to import young and healthy animals from the wild. We introduce here a more sustainable alternative method - importation of semen from wild bulls without removing them from their natural habitat. Due to the logistics involved, the only practical option would be to transport cryopreserved sperm. Despite some early reports on African elephant semen cryopreservation, the utility of this new population management tool has not been evaluated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Semen was collected by electroejaculation from 14 wild African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana bulls and cryopreserved using the directional freezing technique. Sperm treatments evaluated included the need for centrifugation, the use of hen or quail yolk, the concentration of glycerol (3%, 5% or 7% in the extender, and maintenance of motility over time after thawing. Our results suggest that dilution in an extender containing hen yolk and 7% glycerol after centrifugation best preserved post-thaw sperm motility when compared to all other treatments (P≤0.012 for all. Using this approach we were able to achieve after thawing (mean ± SD 54.6±3.9% motility, 85.3±2.4% acrosome integrity, and 86.8±4.6% normal morphology with no decrease in motility over 1 h incubation at 37°C. Sperm cryopreserved during this study has already lead to a pregnancy of a captive female elephant following artificial insemination. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With working techniques for artificial insemination and sperm cryopreservation of both African and Asian elephants in hand, population managers can now enrich captive or isolated wild elephant populations without removing valuable individuals from their natural habitat.

  15. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  16. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  17. Graph and model transformation tools for model migration : empirical results from the transformation tool contest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, L.M.; Herrmannsdoerfer, M.; Mazanek, S.; Van Gorp, P.M.E.; Buchwald, S.; Horn, T.; Kalnina, E.; Koch, A.; Lano, K.; Schätz, B.; Wimmer, M.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the results of the Transformation Tool Contest 2010 workshop, in which nine graph and model transformation tools were compared for specifying model migration. The model migration problem—migration of UML activity diagrams from version 1.4 to version 2.2—is non-trivial and practically

  18. System level modelling with open source tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Mikkel Koefoed; Madsen, Jan; Niaki, Seyed Hosein Attarzadeh

    , called ForSyDe. ForSyDe is available under the open Source approach, which allows small and medium enterprises (SME) to get easy access to advanced modeling capabilities and tools. We give an introduction to the design methodology through the system level modeling of a simple industrial use case, and we...

  19. The european Trans-Tools transport model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooijen, T. van; Burgess, A.

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents the use of ArcGIS in the Transtools Transport Model, TRANS-TOOLS, created by an international consortium for the European Commission. The model describe passenger as well as freight transport in Europe with all medium and long distance modes (cars, vans, trucks, train, inland

  20. An online model composition tool for system biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coskun, Sarp A; Cicek, A Ercument; Lai, Nicola; Dash, Ranjan K; Ozsoyoglu, Z Meral; Ozsoyoglu, Gultekin

    2013-09-05

    There are multiple representation formats for Systems Biology computational models, and the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) is one of the most widely used. SBML is used to capture, store, and distribute computational models by Systems Biology data sources (e.g., the BioModels Database) and researchers. Therefore, there is a need for all-in-one web-based solutions that support advance SBML functionalities such as uploading, editing, composing, visualizing, simulating, querying, and browsing computational models. We present the design and implementation of the Model Composition Tool (Interface) within the PathCase-SB (PathCase Systems Biology) web portal. The tool helps users compose systems biology models to facilitate the complex process of merging systems biology models. We also present three tools that support the model composition tool, namely, (1) Model Simulation Interface that generates a visual plot of the simulation according to user's input, (2) iModel Tool as a platform for users to upload their own models to compose, and (3) SimCom Tool that provides a side by side comparison of models being composed in the same pathway. Finally, we provide a web site that hosts BioModels Database models and a separate web site that hosts SBML Test Suite models. Model composition tool (and the other three tools) can be used with little or no knowledge of the SBML document structure. For this reason, students or anyone who wants to learn about systems biology will benefit from the described functionalities. SBML Test Suite models will be a nice starting point for beginners. And, for more advanced purposes, users will able to access and employ models of the BioModels Database as well.

  1. Cluster Analysis as an Analytical Tool of Population Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Mikhaylovna Shubat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The predicted negative trends in Russian demography (falling birth rates, population decline actualize the need to strengthen measures of family and population policy. Our research purpose is to identify groups of Russian regions with similar characteristics in the family sphere using cluster analysis. The findings should make an important contribution to the field of family policy. We used hierarchical cluster analysis based on the Ward method and the Euclidean distance for segmentation of Russian regions. Clustering is based on four variables, which allowed assessing the family institution in the region. The authors used the data of Federal State Statistics Service from 2010 to 2015. Clustering and profiling of each segment has allowed forming a model of Russian regions depending on the features of the family institution in these regions. The authors revealed four clusters grouping regions with similar problems in the family sphere. This segmentation makes it possible to develop the most relevant family policy measures in each group of regions. Thus, the analysis has shown a high degree of differentiation of the family institution in the regions. This suggests that a unified approach to population problems’ solving is far from being effective. To achieve greater results in the implementation of family policy, a differentiated approach is needed. Methods of multidimensional data classification can be successfully applied as a relevant analytical toolkit. Further research could develop the adaptation of multidimensional classification methods to the analysis of the population problems in Russian regions. In particular, the algorithms of nonparametric cluster analysis may be of relevance in future studies.

  2. Tool wear modeling using abductive networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masory, Oren

    1992-09-01

    A tool wear model based on Abductive Networks, which consists of a network of `polynomial' nodes, is described. The model relates the cutting parameters, components of the cutting force, and machining time to flank wear. Thus real time measurements of the cutting force can be used to monitor the machining process. The model is obtained by a training process in which the connectivity between the network's nodes and the polynomial coefficients of each node are determined by optimizing a performance criteria. Actual wear measurements of coated and uncoated carbide inserts were used for training and evaluating the established model.

  3. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  4. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  5. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  6. Impact of population and economic growth on carbon emissions in Taiwan using an analytic tool STIRPAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Chao Yeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon emission has increasingly become an issue of global concern because of climate change. Unfortunately, Taiwan was listed as top 20 countries of carbon emission in 2014. In order to provide appropriate measures to control carbon emission, it appears that there is an urgent need to address how such factors as population and economic growth impact the emission of carbon dioxide in any developing countries. In addition to total population, both the percentages of population living in urban area (i.e., urbanization percentage, and non-dependent population may also serve as limiting factors. On the other hand, the total energy-driven gross domestic production (GDP and the percentage of GDP generated by the manufacturing industries are assessed to see their respective degree of impact on carbon emission. Therefore, based on the past national data in the period 1990–2014 in Taiwan, an analytic tool of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT was employed to see how well those aforementioned factors can describe their individual potential impact on global warming, which is measured by the total amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere. Seven scenarios of STIRPAT model were proposed and tested statistically for the significance of each proposed model. As a result, two models were suggested to predict the impact of carbon emission due to population and economic growth by the year 2025 in Taiwan.

  7. Animal models: an important tool in mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capilla, Javier; Clemons, Karl V; Stevens, David A

    2007-12-01

    Animal models of fungal infections are, and will remain, a key tool in the advancement of the medical mycology. Many different types of animal models of fungal infection have been developed, with murine models the most frequently used, for studies of pathogenesis, virulence, immunology, diagnosis, and therapy. The ability to control numerous variables in performing the model allows us to mimic human disease states and quantitatively monitor the course of the disease. However, no single model can answer all questions and different animal species or different routes of infection can show somewhat different results. Thus, the choice of which animal model to use must be made carefully, addressing issues of the type of human disease to mimic, the parameters to follow and collection of the appropriate data to answer those questions being asked. This review addresses a variety of uses for animal models in medical mycology. It focuses on the most clinically important diseases affecting humans and cites various examples of the different types of studies that have been performed. Overall, animal models of fungal infection will continue to be valuable tools in addressing questions concerning fungal infections and contribute to our deeper understanding of how these infections occur, progress and can be controlled and eliminated.

  8. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  9. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  10. ADAS tools for collisional–radiative modelling of molecules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guzmán, F., E-mail: francisco.guzman@cea.fr [Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0NG (United Kingdom); CEA, IRFM, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance 13108 (France); O’Mullane, M.; Summers, H.P. [Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0NG (United Kingdom)

    2013-07-15

    New theoretical and computational tools for molecular collisional–radiative models are presented. An application to the hydrogen molecule system has been made. At the same time, a structured database has been created where fundamental cross sections and rates for individual processes as well as derived data (effective coefficients) are stored. Relative populations for the vibrational states of the ground electronic state of H{sub 2} are presented and this vibronic resolution model is compared electronic resolution where vibronic transitions are summed over vibrational sub-states. Some new reaction rates are calculated by means of the impact parameter approximation. Computational tools have been developed to automate process and simplify the data assembly. Effective (collisional–radiative) rate coefficients versus temperature and density are presented.

  11. ADAS tools for collisional-radiative modelling of molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzmán, F.; O'Mullane, M.; Summers, H. P.

    2013-07-01

    New theoretical and computational tools for molecular collisional-radiative models are presented. An application to the hydrogen molecule system has been made. At the same time, a structured database has been created where fundamental cross sections and rates for individual processes as well as derived data (effective coefficients) are stored. Relative populations for the vibrational states of the ground electronic state of H2 are presented and this vibronic resolution model is compared electronic resolution where vibronic transitions are summed over vibrational sub-states. Some new reaction rates are calculated by means of the impact parameter approximation. Computational tools have been developed to automate process and simplify the data assembly. Effective (collisional-radiative) rate coefficients versus temperature and density are presented.

  12. WMT: The CSDMS Web Modeling Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, M.; Hutton, E. W. H.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) has a mission to enable model use and development for research in earth surface processes. CSDMS strives to expand the use of quantitative modeling techniques, promotes best practices in coding, and advocates for the use of open-source software. To streamline and standardize access to models, CSDMS has developed the Web Modeling Tool (WMT), a RESTful web application with a client-side graphical interface and a server-side database and API that allows users to build coupled surface dynamics models in a web browser on a personal computer or a mobile device, and run them in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment. With WMT, users can: Design a model from a set of components Edit component parameters Save models to a web-accessible server Share saved models with the community Submit runs to an HPC system Download simulation results The WMT client is an Ajax application written in Java with GWT, which allows developers to employ object-oriented design principles and development tools such as Ant, Eclipse and JUnit. For deployment on the web, the GWT compiler translates Java code to optimized and obfuscated JavaScript. The WMT client is supported on Firefox, Chrome, Safari, and Internet Explorer. The WMT server, written in Python and SQLite, is a layered system, with each layer exposing a web service API: wmt-db: database of component, model, and simulation metadata and output wmt-api: configure and connect components wmt-exe: launch simulations on remote execution servers The database server provides, as JSON-encoded messages, the metadata for users to couple model components, including descriptions of component exchange items, uses and provides ports, and input parameters. Execution servers are network-accessible computational resources, ranging from HPC systems to desktop computers, containing the CSDMS software stack for running a simulation. Once a simulation completes, its output, in NetCDF, is packaged

  13. Comparison of BrainTool to other UML modeling and model transformation tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikiforova, Oksana; Gusarovs, Konstantins

    2017-07-01

    In the last 30 years there were numerous model generated software systems offered targeting problems with the development productivity and the resulting software quality. CASE tools developed due today's date are being advertised as having "complete code-generation capabilities". Nowadays the Object Management Group (OMG) is calling similar arguments in regards to the Unified Modeling Language (UML) models at different levels of abstraction. It is being said that software development automation using CASE tools enables significant level of automation. Actual today's CASE tools are usually offering a combination of several features starting with a model editor and a model repository for a traditional ones and ending with code generator (that could be using a scripting or domain-specific (DSL) language), transformation tool to produce the new artifacts from the manually created and transformation definition editor to define new transformations for the most advanced ones. Present paper contains the results of CASE tool (mainly UML editors) comparison against the level of the automation they are offering.

  14. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  15. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  16. Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

    2016-02-01

    Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base

  17. AN ARCGIS TOOL FOR CREATING POPULATIONS OF WATERSHEDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    For the Landscape Investigations for Pesticides Study in the Midwest, the goal is to sample a representative subset of watersheds selected statistically from a target population of watersheds within the glaciated corn belt. This area stretches from Ohio to Iowa and includes parts...

  18. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  19. Collaboro: a collaborative (meta modeling tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Luis Cánovas Izquierdo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Software development is becoming more and more collaborative, emphasizing the role of end-users in the development process to make sure the final product will satisfy customer needs. This is especially relevant when developing Domain-Specific Modeling Languages (DSMLs, which are modeling languages specifically designed to carry out the tasks of a particular domain. While end-users are actually the experts of the domain for which a DSML is developed, their participation in the DSML specification process is still rather limited nowadays. In this paper, we propose a more community-aware language development process by enabling the active participation of all community members (both developers and end-users from the very beginning. Our proposal, called Collaboro, is based on a DSML itself enabling the representation of change proposals during the language design and the discussion (and trace back of possible solutions, comments and decisions arisen during the collaboration. Collaboro also incorporates a metric-based recommender system to help community members to define high-quality notations for the DSMLs. We also show how Collaboro can be used at the model-level to facilitate the collaborative specification of software models. Tool support is available both as an Eclipse plug-in a web-based solution.

  20. Evolution and population genetics of exotic and reemerging pathogens: traditional and novel tools and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    N.J. Grünwald; E.M. Goss

    2011-01-01

    Given human population growth and accelerated global trade, the rate of emergence of exotic plant pathogens is bound to increase. Understanding the processes that lead to the emergence of new pathogens can help manage emerging epidemics. Novel tools for analyzing population genetic variation can be used to infer the evolutionary history of populations or species,...

  1. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  2. Collaborative Inquiry Learning: Models, tools, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Thorsten; Urhahne, Detlef; Schanze, Sascha; Ploetzner, Rolf

    2010-02-01

    Collaborative inquiry learning is one of the most challenging and exciting ventures for today's schools. It aims at bringing a new and promising culture of teaching and learning into the classroom where students in groups engage in self-regulated learning activities supported by the teacher. It is expected that this way of learning fosters students' motivation and interest in science, that they learn to perform steps of inquiry similar to scientists and that they gain knowledge on scientific processes. Starting from general pedagogical reflections and science standards, the article reviews some prominent models of inquiry learning. This comparison results in a set of inquiry processes being the basis for cooperation in the scientific network NetCoIL. Inquiry learning is conceived in several ways with emphasis on different processes. For an illustration of the spectrum, some main conceptions of inquiry and their focuses are described. In the next step, the article describes exemplary computer tools and environments from within and outside the NetCoIL network that were designed to support processes of collaborative inquiry learning. These tools are analysed by describing their functionalities as well as effects on student learning known from the literature. The article closes with challenges for further developments elaborated by the NetCoIL network.

  3. Metabolic engineering tools in model cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Austin L; Case, Anna E; Zhang, Angela; Atsumi, Shota

    2018-03-26

    Developing sustainable routes for producing chemicals and fuels is one of the most important challenges in metabolic engineering. Photoautotrophic hosts are particularly attractive because of their potential to utilize light as an energy source and CO 2 as a carbon substrate through photosynthesis. Cyanobacteria are unicellular organisms capable of photosynthesis and CO 2 fixation. While engineering in heterotrophs, such as Escherichia coli, has result in a plethora of tools for strain development and hosts capable of producing valuable chemicals efficiently, these techniques are not always directly transferable to cyanobacteria. However, recent efforts have led to an increase in the scope and scale of chemicals that cyanobacteria can produce. Adaptations of important metabolic engineering tools have also been optimized to function in photoautotrophic hosts, which include Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)-Cas9, 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis (MFA), and Genome-Scale Modeling (GSM). This review explores innovations in cyanobacterial metabolic engineering, and highlights how photoautotrophic metabolism has shaped their development. Copyright © 2018 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Ecological drivers of variation in tool-use frequency across sea otter populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujii, Jessica; Ralls, Katherine; Tinker, M. Tim

    2015-01-01

    Sea otters are well-known tool users, employing objects such as rocks or shells to break open hard-shelled invertebrate prey. However, little is known about how the frequency of tool use varies among sea otter populations and the factors that drive these differences. We examined 17 years of observational data on prey capture and tool use from 8 sea otter populations ranging from southern California to the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. There were significant differences in the diets of these populations as well as variation in the frequency of tool use. Sea otters at Amchitka Island, Alaska, used tools on less than 1% of dives that resulted in the capture of prey compared with approximately 16% in Monterey, California. The percentage of individuals in the population that used tools ranged from 10% to 93%. In all populations, marine snails and thick-shelled bivalves were most likely to be associated with tool use, whereas soft-bodied prey items such as worms and sea stars were the least likely. The probability that a tool would be used on a given prey type varied across populations. The morphology of the prey item being handled and the prevalence of various types of prey in local diets were major ecological drivers of tool use: together they accounted for about 64% of the variation in tool-use frequency among populations. The remaining variation may be related to changes in the relative costs and benefits to an individual otter of learning to use tools effectively under differing ecological circumstances.

  5. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  6. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  7. Evaluation of clinical information modeling tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Austin, Tony; Moreno-Conde, Jesús; Parra-Calderón, Carlos L; Kalra, Dipak

    2016-11-01

    Clinical information models are formal specifications for representing the structure and semantics of the clinical content within electronic health record systems. This research aims to define, test, and validate evaluation metrics for software tools designed to support the processes associated with the definition, management, and implementation of these models. The proposed framework builds on previous research that focused on obtaining agreement on the essential requirements in this area. A set of 50 conformance criteria were defined based on the 20 functional requirements agreed by that consensus and applied to evaluate the currently available tools. Of the 11 initiative developing tools for clinical information modeling identified, 9 were evaluated according to their performance on the evaluation metrics. Results show that functionalities related to management of data types, specifications, metadata, and terminology or ontology bindings have a good level of adoption. Improvements can be made in other areas focused on information modeling and associated processes. Other criteria related to displaying semantic relationships between concepts and communication with terminology servers had low levels of adoption. The proposed evaluation metrics were successfully tested and validated against a representative sample of existing tools. The results identify the need to improve tool support for information modeling and software development processes, especially in those areas related to governance, clinician involvement, and optimizing the technical validation of testing processes. This research confirmed the potential of these evaluation metrics to support decision makers in identifying the most appropriate tool for their organization. Los Modelos de Información Clínica son especificaciones para representar la estructura y características semánticas del contenido clínico en los sistemas de Historia Clínica Electrónica. Esta investigación define, prueba y valida

  8. Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua Millspaugh

    2011-01-01

    Landscape-based population models are potentially valuable tools in facilitating conservation planning and actions at large scales. However, such models have rarely been applied at ecoregional scales. We extended landscape-based population models to ecoregional scales for three species of concern in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region and compared model...

  9. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  10. Storytelling: A Qualitative Tool to Promote Health Among Vulnerable Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios, Janelle F; Salem, Benissa; Hodge, Felicia Schanche; Albarrán, Cyndi R; Anaebere, Ann; Hayes-Bautista, Teodocia Maria

    2015-09-01

    Storytelling is a basic cultural phenomenon that has recently been recognized as a valuable method for collecting research data and developing multidisciplinary interventions. The purpose of this article is to present a collection of nursing scholarship wherein the concept of storytelling, underpinned by cultural phenomena, is explored for data collection and intervention. A conceptual analysis of storytelling reveals key variables. Following a brief review of current research focused on storytelling used within health care, three case studies among three vulnerable populations (American Indian teen mothers, American Indian cancer survivors, and African American women at risk for HIV/AIDS) demonstrate the uses of storytelling for data collection and intervention. Implications for transcultural nursing regarding storytelling are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. Numerical modelling of tool wear in turning with cemented carbide cutting tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, P.; Estrems, M.; Faura, F.

    2007-04-01

    A numerical model is proposed for analysing the flank and crater wear resulting from the loss of material on cutting tool surface in turning processes due to wear mechanisms of adhesion, abrasion and fracture. By means of this model, the material loss along cutting tool surface can be analysed, and the worn surface shape during the workpiece machining can be determined. The proposed model analyses the gradual degradation of cutting tool during turning operation, and tool wear can be estimated as a function of cutting time. Wear-land width (VB) and crater depth (KT) can be obtained for description of material loss on cutting tool surface, and the effects of the distinct wear mechanisms on surface shape can be studied. The parameters required for the tool wear model are obtained from bibliography and experimental observation for AISI 4340 steel turning with WC-Co cutting tools.

  12. Numerical modelling of tool wear in turning with cemented carbide cutting tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franco, P.; Estrems, M.; Faura, F.

    2007-01-01

    A numerical model is proposed for analysing the flank and crater wear resulting from the loss of material on cutting tool surface in turning processes due to wear mechanisms of adhesion, abrasion and fracture. By means of this model, the material loss along cutting tool surface can be analysed, and the worn surface shape during the workpiece machining can be determined. The proposed model analyses the gradual degradation of cutting tool during turning operation, and tool wear can be estimated as a function of cutting time. Wear-land width (VB) and crater depth (KT) can be obtained for description of material loss on cutting tool surface, and the effects of the distinct wear mechanisms on surface shape can be studied. The parameters required for the tool wear model are obtained from bibliography and experimental observation for AISI 4340 steel turning with WC-Co cutting tools

  13. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  14. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  15. Population genetics provides an efficient tool to quantify fragmentation impact in forest ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A method in population genetics (Dutech et al., Am. J. Bot. 92 (2, 252-261, February 2005 is described and discussed as an interesting tool for investigating the effects of fragmentation in forest ecosystems.

  16. The data operation centre tool. Architecture and population strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dal Pra, Stefano; Crescente, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    Keeping track of the layout of the informatic resources in a big datacenter is a complex task. DOCET is a database–based webtool designed and implemented at INFN. It aims at providing a uniform interface to manage and retrieve needed information about one or more datacenter, such as available hardware, software and their status. Having a suitable application is however useless until most of the information about the centre are not inserted in the DOCET'S database. Manually inserting all the information from scratch is an unfeasible task. After describing DOCET'S high level architecture, its main features and current development track, we present and discuss the work done to populate the DOCET database for the INFN-T1 site by retrieving information from a heterogenous variety of authoritative sources, such as DNS, DHCP, Quattor host profiles, etc. We then describe the work being done to integrate DOCET with some common management operation, such as adding a newly installed host to DHCP and DNS, or creating a suitable Quattor profile template for it.

  17. Large scale experiments as a tool for numerical model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Jens; Hansen, Erik Asp; Fuchs, Jesper

    2003-01-01

    Experimental modelling is an important tool for study of hydrodynamic phenomena. The applicability of experiments can be expanded by the use of numerical models and experiments are important for documentation of the validity of numerical tools. In other cases numerical tools can be applied...

  18. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  19. Modeling, methodologies and tools for molecular and nano-scale communications modeling, methodologies and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Nakano, Tadashi; Moore, Michael

    2017-01-01

    (Preliminary) The book presents the state of art in the emerging field of molecular and nanoscale communication. It gives special attention to fundamental models, and advanced methodologies and tools used in the field. It covers a wide range of applications, e.g. nanomedicine, nanorobot communication, bioremediation and environmental managements. It addresses advanced graduate students, academics and professionals working at the forefront in their fields and at the interfaces between different areas of research, such as engineering, computer science, biology and nanotechnology.

  20. Developing a Modeling Tool Using Eclipse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kirtley, Nick; Waqas Kamal, Ahmad; Avgeriou, Paris

    2008-01-01

    Tool development using an open source platform provides autonomy to users to change, use, and develop cost-effective software with freedom from licensing requirements. However, open source tool development poses a number of challenges, such as poor documentation and continuous evolution. In this

  1. Novel Multiscale Modeling Tool Applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Formation

    OpenAIRE

    Biggs, Matthew B.; Papin, Jason A.

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet) as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM) and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid mod...

  2. Restricted gene flow and fine-scale population structuring in tool using New Caledonian crows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutz, C.; Ryder, T. B.; Fleischer, R. C.

    2012-04-01

    New Caledonian crows Corvus moneduloides are the most prolific avian tool users. It has been suggested that some aspects of their complex tool use behaviour are under the influence of cultural processes, involving the social transmission—and perhaps even progressive refinement—of tool designs. Using microsatellite and mt-haplotype profiling of crows from three distinct habitats (dry forest, farmland and beachside habitat), we show that New Caledonian crow populations can exhibit significant fine-scale genetic structuring. Our finding that some sites of cultural isolation of crow groups. Restricted movement of birds between local populations at such small spatial scales, especially across habitat boundaries, illustrates how specific tool designs could be preserved over time, and how tool technologies of different crow groups could diverge due to drift and local selection pressures. Young New Caledonian crows have an unusually long juvenile dependency period, during which they acquire complex tool-related foraging skills. We suggest that the resulting delayed natal dispersal drives population-divergence patterns in this species. Our work provides essential context for future studies that examine the genetic makeup of crow populations across larger geographic areas, including localities with suspected cultural differences in crow tool technologies.

  3. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  4. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  5. Modelling of Tool Wear and Residual Stress during Machining of AISI H13 Tool Steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Outeiro, José C.; Umbrello, Domenico; Pina, José C.; Rizzuti, Stefania

    2007-05-01

    Residual stresses can enhance or impair the ability of a component to withstand loading conditions in service (fatigue, creep, stress corrosion cracking, etc.), depending on their nature: compressive or tensile, respectively. This poses enormous problems in structural assembly as this affects the structural integrity of the whole part. In addition, tool wear issues are of critical importance in manufacturing since these affect component quality, tool life and machining cost. Therefore, prediction and control of both tool wear and the residual stresses in machining are absolutely necessary. In this work, a two-dimensional Finite Element model using an implicit Lagrangian formulation with an automatic remeshing was applied to simulate the orthogonal cutting process of AISI H13 tool steel. To validate such model the predicted and experimentally measured chip geometry, cutting forces, temperatures, tool wear and residual stresses on the machined affected layers were compared. The proposed FE model allowed us to investigate the influence of tool geometry, cutting regime parameters and tool wear on residual stress distribution in the machined surface and subsurface of AISI H13 tool steel. The obtained results permit to conclude that in order to reduce the magnitude of surface residual stresses, the cutting speed should be increased, the uncut chip thickness (or feed) should be reduced and machining with honed tools having large cutting edge radii produce better results than chamfered tools. Moreover, increasing tool wear increases the magnitude of surface residual stresses.

  6. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  7. SIMULATION TOOLS FOR ELECTRICAL MACHINES MODELLING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. Simulation tools are used both for research and teaching to allow a good ... The solution provide an easy way of determining the dynamic .... incorporate an in-built numerical algorithm, ... to learn, versatile in application, enhanced.

  8. Development and Implementation of Team-Based Panel Management Tools: Filling the Gap between Patient and Population Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Brook; Lawrence, Renée H; Drawz, Paul; Carter, Cameron; Shumaker, Amy Hirsch; Kern, Elizabeth F

    2016-08-01

    Effective team-based models of care, such as the Patient-Centered Medical Home, require electronic tools to support proactive population management strategies that emphasize care coordination and quality improvement. Despite the spread of electronic health records (EHRs) and vendors marketing population health tools, clinical practices still may lack the ability to have: (1) local control over types of data collected/reports generated, (2) timely data (eg, up-to-date data, not several months old), and accordingly (3) the ability to efficiently monitor and improve patient outcomes. This article describes a quality improvement project at the hospital system level to develop and implement a flexible panel management (PM) tool to improve care of subpopulations of patients (eg, panels of patients with diabetes) by clinical teams. An in-depth case analysis approach is used to explore barriers and facilitators in building a PM registry tool for team-based management needs using standard data elements (eg, laboratory values, pharmacy records) found in EHRs. Also described are factors that may contribute to sustainability; to date the tool has been adapted to 6 disease-focused subpopulations encompassing more than 200,000 patients. Two key lessons emerged from this initiative: (1) though challenging, team-based clinical end users and information technology needed to work together consistently to refine the product, and (2) locally developed population management tools can provide efficient data tracking for frontline clinical teams and leadership. The preliminary work identified critical gaps that were successfully addressed by building local PM registry tools from EHR-derived data and offers lessons learned for others engaged in similar work. (Population Health Management 2016;19:232-239).

  9. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    , but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...... of formerly disconnected tools could improve tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  10. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...

  11. Modeling in the Classroom: An Evolving Learning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Few, A. A.; Marlino, M. R.; Low, R.

    2006-12-01

    Among the early programs (early 1990s) focused on teaching Earth System Science were the Global Change Instruction Program (GCIP) funded by NSF through UCAR and the Earth System Science Education Program (ESSE) funded by NASA through USRA. These two programs introduced modeling as a learning tool from the beginning, and they provided workshops, demonstrations and lectures for their participating universities. These programs were aimed at university-level education. Recently, classroom modeling is experiencing a revival of interest. Drs John Snow and Arthur Few conducted two workshops on modeling at the ESSE21 meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, in August 2005. The Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE) at http://www.dlese.org provides web access to STELLA models and tutorials, and UCAR's Education and Outreach (EO) program holds workshops that include training in modeling. An important innovation to the STELLA modeling software by isee systems, http://www.iseesystems.com, called "isee Player" is available as a free download. The Player allows users to view and run STELLA models, change model parameters, share models with colleagues and students, and make working models available on the web. This is important because the expert can create models, and the user can learn how the modeled system works. Another aspect of this innovation is that the educational benefits of modeling concepts can be extended throughout most of the curriculum. The procedure for building a working computer model of an Earth Science System follows this general format: (1) carefully define the question(s) for which you seek the answer(s); (2) identify the interacting system components and inputs contributing to the system's behavior; (3) collect the information and data that will be required to complete the conceptual model; (4) construct a system diagram (graphic) of the system that displays all of system's central questions, components, relationships and required inputs. At this stage

  12. Modeling and Tool Wear in Routing of CFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliescu, D.; Fernandez, A.; Gutierrez-Orrantia, M. E.; Lopez de Lacalle, L. N.; Girot, F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the prediction and evaluation of feed force in routing of carbon composite material. In order to extend tool life and improve quality of the machined surface, a better understanding of uncoated and coated tool behaviors is required. This work describes (1) the optimization of the geometry of multiple teeth tools minimizing the tool wear and the feed force, (2) the optimization of tool coating and (3) the development of a phenomenological model between the feed force, the routing parameters and the tool wear. The experimental results indicate that the feed rate, the cutting speed and the tool wear are the most significant factors affecting the feed force. In the case of multiple teeth tools, a particular geometry with 14 teeth right helix right cut and 11 teeth left helix right cut gives the best results. A thick AlTiN coating or a diamond coating can dramatically improve the tool life while minimizing the axial force, roughness and delamination. A wear model has then been developed based on an abrasive behavior of the tool. The model links the feed rate to the tool geometry parameters (tool diameter), to the process parameters (feed rate, cutting speed and depth of cut) and to the wear. The model presented has been verified by experimental tests.

  13. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  14. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  15. ExEP yield modeling tool and validation test results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Rhonda; Turmon, Michael; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel; Lowrance, Patrick; Liu, Xiang Cate; Nunez, Paul

    2017-09-01

    EXOSIMS is an open-source simulation tool for parametric modeling of the detection yield and characterization of exoplanets. EXOSIMS has been adopted by the Exoplanet Exploration Programs Standards Definition and Evaluation Team (ExSDET) as a common mechanism for comparison of exoplanet mission concept studies. To ensure trustworthiness of the tool, we developed a validation test plan that leverages the Python-language unit-test framework, utilizes integration tests for selected module interactions, and performs end-to-end crossvalidation with other yield tools. This paper presents the test methods and results, with the physics-based tests such as photometry and integration time calculation treated in detail and the functional tests treated summarily. The test case utilized a 4m unobscured telescope with an idealized coronagraph and an exoplanet population from the IPAC radial velocity (RV) exoplanet catalog. The known RV planets were set at quadrature to allow deterministic validation of the calculation of physical parameters, such as working angle, photon counts and integration time. The observing keepout region was tested by generating plots and movies of the targets and the keepout zone over a year. Although the keepout integration test required the interpretation of a user, the test revealed problems in the L2 halo orbit and the parameterization of keepout applied to some solar system bodies, which the development team was able to address. The validation testing of EXOSIMS was performed iteratively with the developers of EXOSIMS and resulted in a more robust, stable, and trustworthy tool that the exoplanet community can use to simulate exoplanet direct-detection missions from probe class, to WFIRST, up to large mission concepts such as HabEx and LUVOIR.

  16. Student Model Tools Code Release and Documentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Matthew; Bull, Susan; Masci, Drew

    of its strengths and areas of improvement (Section 6). Several key appendices are attached to this report including user manuals for teacher and students (Appendix 3). Fundamentally, all relevant information is included in the report for those wishing to do further development work with the tool...

  17. Comments to a polar bear population model

    OpenAIRE

    Øritsland, Nils Are

    1985-01-01

    Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.

  18. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  19. Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all marker...

  20. Advanced reach tool (ART) : Development of the mechanistic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransman, W.; Tongeren, M. van; Cherrie, J.W.; Tischer, M.; Schneider, T.; Schinkel, J.; Kromhout, H.; Warren, N.; Goede, H.; Tielemans, E.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the development of the mechanistic model within a collaborative project, referred to as the Advanced REACH Tool (ART) project, to develop a tool to model inhalation exposure for workers sharing similar operational conditions across different industries and locations in Europe.

  1. Storm Water Management Model Climate Adjustment Tool (SWMM-CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s newest tool, the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) – Climate Adjustment Tool (CAT) is meant to help municipal stormwater utilities better address potential climate change impacts affecting their operations. SWMM, first released in 1971, models hydrology and hydrauli...

  2. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Harmandaris, Vagelis; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Plechac, Petr

    2015-01-01

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics

  3. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  4. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  5. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  6. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  7. Applying Modeling Tools to Ground System Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Pasquale, Peter

    2012-01-01

    As part of a long-term effort to revitalize the Ground Systems (GS) Engineering Section practices, Systems Modeling Language (SysML) and Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) have been used to model existing GS products and the procedures GS engineers use to produce them.

  8. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  9. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  10. Shape: A 3D Modeling Tool for Astrophysics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Wolfgang; Koning, Nicholas; Wenger, Stephan; Morisset, Christophe; Magnor, Marcus

    2011-04-01

    We present a flexible interactive 3D morpho-kinematical modeling application for astrophysics. Compared to other systems, our application reduces the restrictions on the physical assumptions, data type, and amount that is required for a reconstruction of an object's morphology. It is one of the first publicly available tools to apply interactive graphics to astrophysical modeling. The tool allows astrophysicists to provide a priori knowledge about the object by interactively defining 3D structural elements. By direct comparison of model prediction with observational data, model parameters can then be automatically optimized to fit the observation. The tool has already been successfully used in a number of astrophysical research projects.

  11. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  12. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  13. Novel multiscale modeling tool applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew B Biggs

    Full Text Available Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool.

  14. Novel multiscale modeling tool applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, Matthew B; Papin, Jason A

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet) as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM) and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool.

  15. New tools for aquatic habitat modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Tonina; J. A. McKean; C. Tang; P. Goodwin

    2011-01-01

    Modeling of aquatic microhabitat in streams has been typically done over short channel reaches using one-dimensional simulations, partly because of a lack of high resolution. subaqueous topographic data to better define model boundary conditions. The Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) is an airborne aquatic-terrestrial sensor that allows simultaneous...

  16. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  17. Phase transitions in a lattice population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

  18. Jack Human Modelling Tool: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    design and evaluation [8] and evolved into the Computerised Biomechanical Man Model (Combiman), shown in Figure 2. Combiman was developed at the...unrealistic arrangement of tetrahedra (Figure 7) to a highly realistic human model based on current anthropometric, anatomical and biomechanical data...has long legs and a short torso may find it difficult to adjust the seat and rudder pedals to achieve the required over the nose vision, reach to

  19. A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

    2011-10-01

    Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  1. Aligning building information model tools and construction management methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Timo; van Meerveld, H.J.; Vossebeld, N.; Adriaanse, Adriaan Maria

    2012-01-01

    Few empirical studies exist that can explain how different Building Information Model (BIM) based tool implementation strategies work in practical contexts. To help overcoming this gap, this paper describes the implementation of two BIM based tools, the first, to support the activities at an

  2. Scratch as a Computational Modelling Tool for Teaching Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Victor; Hernandez, Maria Isabel

    2015-01-01

    The Scratch online authoring tool, which features a simple programming language that has been adapted to primary and secondary students, is being used more and more in schools as it offers students and teachers the opportunity to use a tool to build scientific models and evaluate their behaviour, just as can be done with computational modelling…

  3. Advanced REACH tool: A Bayesian model for occupational exposure assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McNally, K.; Warren, N.; Fransman, W.; Entink, R.K.; Schinkel, J.; Van Tongeren, M.; Cherrie, J.W.; Kromhout, H.; Schneider, T.; Tielemans, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate

  4. Agent Based Modeling as an Educational Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, J. H.; Johnson, R.; Castillo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Motivation is a key element in high school education. One way to improve motivation and provide content, while helping address critical thinking and problem solving skills, is to have students build and study agent based models in the classroom. This activity visually connects concepts with their applied mathematical representation. "Engaging students in constructing models may provide a bridge between frequently disconnected conceptual and mathematical forms of knowledge." (Levy and Wilensky, 2011) We wanted to discover the feasibility of implementing a model based curriculum in the classroom given current and anticipated core and content standards.; Simulation using California GIS data ; Simulation of high school student lunch popularity using aerial photograph on top of terrain value map.

  5. Predictions of titanium alloy properties using thermodynamic modeling tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F.; Xie, F.-Y.; Chen, S.-L.; Chang, Y. A.; Furrer, D.; Venkatesh, V.

    2005-12-01

    Thermodynamic modeling tools have become essential in understanding the effect of alloy chemistry on the final microstructure of a material. Implementation of such tools to improve titanium processing via parameter optimization has resulted in significant cost savings through the elimination of shop/laboratory trials and tests. In this study, a thermodynamic modeling tool developed at CompuTherm, LLC, is being used to predict β transus, phase proportions, phase chemistries, partitioning coefficients, and phase boundaries of multicomponent titanium alloys. This modeling tool includes Pandat, software for multicomponent phase equilibrium calculations, and PanTitanium, a thermodynamic database for titanium alloys. Model predictions are compared with experimental results for one α-β alloy (Ti-64) and two near-β alloys (Ti-17 and Ti-10-2-3). The alloying elements, especially the interstitial elements O, N, H, and C, have been shown to have a significant effect on the β transus temperature, and are discussed in more detail herein.

  6. A tool for model based diagnostics of the AGS Booster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luccio, A.

    1993-01-01

    A model-based algorithmic tool was developed to search for lattice errors by a systematic analysis of orbit data in the AGS Booster synchrotron. The algorithm employs transfer matrices calculated with MAD between points in the ring. Iterative model fitting of the data allows one to find and eventually correct magnet displacements and angles or field errors. The tool, implemented on a HP-Apollo workstation system, has proved very general and of immediate physical interpretation

  7. Fluid Survival Tool: A Model Checker for Hybrid Petri Nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postema, Björn Frits; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Ghasemieh, Hamed

    2014-01-01

    Recently, algorithms for model checking Stochastic Time Logic (STL) on Hybrid Petri nets with a single general one-shot transition (HPNG) have been introduced. This paper presents a tool for model checking HPNG models against STL formulas. A graphical user interface (GUI) not only helps to

  8. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  9. Transparent Model Transformation: Turning Your Favourite Model Editor into a Transformation Tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acretoaie, Vlad; Störrle, Harald; Strüber, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Current model transformation languages are supported by dedicated editors, often closely coupled to a single execution engine. We introduce Transparent Model Transformation, a paradigm enabling modelers to specify transformations using a familiar tool: their model editor. We also present VMTL, th...... model transformation tool sharing the model editor’s benefits, transparently....

  10. Multidisciplinary Modelling Tools for Power Electronic Circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad

    in reliability assessment of power modules, a three-dimensional lumped thermal network is proposed to be used for fast, accurate and detailed temperature estimation of power module in dynamic operation and different boundary conditions. Since an important issue in the reliability of power electronics...... environment to be used for optimization of cooling system layout with respect to thermal resistance and pressure drop reductions. Finally extraction of electrical parasitics in the multi-chip power modules will be investigated. As the switching frequency of power devices increases, the size of passive...... components are reduced considerably that leads to increase of power density and cost reduction. However, electrical parasitics become more challenging with increasing the switching frequency and paralleled chips in the integrated and denser packages. Therefore, electrical parasitic models are analyzed based...

  11. Modeling Tools for Drilling, Reservoir Navigation, and Formation Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Dutta

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The oil and gas industry routinely uses borehole tools for measuring or logging rock and fluid properties of geologic formations to locate hydrocarbons and maximize their production. Pore fluids in formations of interest are usually hydrocarbons or water. Resistivity logging is based on the fact that oil and gas have a substantially higher resistivity than water. The first resistivity log was acquired in 1927, and resistivity logging is still the foremost measurement used for drilling and evaluation. However, the acquisition and interpretation of resistivity logging data has grown in complexity over the years. Resistivity logging tools operate in a wide range of frequencies (from DC to GHz and encounter extremely high (several orders of magnitude conductivity contrast between the metal mandrel of the tool and the geologic formation. Typical challenges include arbitrary angles of tool inclination, full tensor electric and magnetic field measurements, and interpretation of complicated anisotropic formation properties. These challenges combine to form some of the most intractable computational electromagnetic problems in the world. Reliable, fast, and convenient numerical modeling of logging tool responses is critical for tool design, sensor optimization, virtual prototyping, and log data inversion. This spectrum of applications necessitates both depth and breadth of modeling software—from blazing fast one-dimensional (1-D modeling codes to advanced threedimensional (3-D modeling software, and from in-house developed codes to commercial modeling packages. In this paper, with the help of several examples, we demonstrate our approach for using different modeling software to address different drilling and evaluation applications. In one example, fast 1-D modeling provides proactive geosteering information from a deep-reading azimuthal propagation resistivity measurement. In the second example, a 3-D model with multiple vertical resistive fractures

  12. Model based methods and tools for process systems engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    need to be integrated with work-flows and data-flows for specific product-process synthesis-design problems within a computer-aided framework. The framework therefore should be able to manage knowledge-data, models and the associated methods and tools needed by specific synthesis-design work...... of model based methods and tools within a computer aided framework for product-process synthesis-design will be highlighted.......Process systems engineering (PSE) provides means to solve a wide range of problems in a systematic and efficient manner. This presentation will give a perspective on model based methods and tools needed to solve a wide range of problems in product-process synthesis-design. These methods and tools...

  13. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  14. Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  15. Pre-Processing and Modeling Tools for Bigdata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Hadi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Modeling tools and operators help the user / developer to identify the processing field on the top of the sequence and to send into the computing module only the data related to the requested result. The remaining data is not relevant and it will slow down the processing. The biggest challenge nowadays is to get high quality processing results with a reduced computing time and costs. To do so, we must review the processing sequence, by adding several modeling tools. The existing processing models do not take in consideration this aspect and focus on getting high calculation performances which will increase the computing time and costs. In this paper we provide a study of the main modeling tools for BigData and a new model based on pre-processing.

  16. Population matrix models and palm resource management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available MATRICES DE POPULATIONS ET MISE EN VALEUR DES PALMIERS. Au cours des 20 dernières années, les structures de population de nombreuses espèces de palmiers ont été décrites et discutées. La croissance et la stabilité des populations ont été analysées à l’aide de matrices. Dans cet article, nous reprenons un modèle et en discutons les aspects méthodologiques en vue d’une estimation des paramètres de l’histoire de la vie des palmiers. Les généralisations résultant de précédentes études sont présentées et les conséquences pour la mise en valeur des palmiers, concernant en particulier la confection de toitures, les fruits, la récolte des stipes, sont discutées. MATRICES DE POBLACIONES Y MANEJO DE PALMERAS. En los últimos 20 años, las estructuras de población de numerosas especies de palmeras han sido descritas y discutidas. El crecimiento y la estabilidad de las poblaciones han sido analizadas, utilizando matrices. En el presente artículo, presentamos un modelo y discutimos los aspectos metodológicos específicos para hacer una estimación de los parámetros de la historia de la vida de las palmeras. Son presentadas las generalizaciones diseñadas por estudios previos, y discutidas las implicancias en el manejo de las palmeras, en cuanto a techado, frutas, cosecha de los estípites. Population structures of numerous palm species have been described and discussed in the last 20 years. Population growth and stability have been analyzed with matrix models. In this paper we review matrix models and discuss methodological issues specific to estimating palm life history parameters. Generalizations drawn from previous studies are presented and implications for palm resource management, specifically for thatch, fruit, and stem harvest, are discussed.

  17. Designer Modeling for Personalized Game Content Creation Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liapis, Antonios; Yannakakis, Georgios N.; Togelius, Julian

    2013-01-01

    preferences, goals and processes from their interaction with a computer-aided design tool, and suggests methods and domains within game development where such a model can be applied. We describe how designer modeling could be integrated with current work on automated and mixed-initiative content creation......With the growing use of automated content creation and computer-aided design tools in game development, there is potential for enhancing the design process through personalized interactions between the software and the game developer. This paper proposes designer modeling for capturing the designer’s......, and envision future directions which focus on personalizing the processes to a designer’s particular wishes....

  18. Fish habitat simulation models and integrated assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harby, A.; Alfredsen, K.

    1999-01-01

    Because of human development water use increases in importance, and this worldwide trend is leading to an increasing number of user conflicts with a strong need for assessment tools to measure the impacts both on the ecosystem and the different users and user groups. The quantitative tools must allow a comparison of alternatives, different user groups, etc., and the tools must be integrated while impact assessments includes different disciplines. Fish species, especially young ones, are indicators of the environmental state of a riverine system and monitoring them is a way to follow environmental changes. The direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystem itself are measured, and impacts on user groups is not included. Fish habitat simulation models are concentrated on, and methods and examples are considered from Norway. Some ideas on integrated modelling tools for impact assessment studies are included. One dimensional hydraulic models are rapidly calibrated and do not require any expert knowledge in hydraulics. Two and three dimensional models require a bit more skilled users, especially if the topography is very heterogeneous. The advantages of using two and three dimensional models include: they do not need any calibration, just validation; they are predictive; and they can be more cost effective than traditional habitat hydraulic models when combined with modern data acquisition systems and tailored in a multi-disciplinary study. Suitable modelling model choice should be based on available data and possible data acquisition, available manpower, computer, and software resources, and needed output and accuracy in the output. 58 refs

  19. Simulation Tools for Electrical Machines Modelling: Teaching and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Simulation tools are used both for research and teaching to allow a good comprehension of the systems under study before practical implementations. This paper illustrates the way MATLAB is used to model non-linearites in synchronous machine. The machine is modeled in rotor reference frame with currents as state ...

  20. The leaf angle distribution of natural plant populations: assessing the canopy with a novel software tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Linow, Mark; Pinto-Espinosa, Francisco; Scharr, Hanno; Rascher, Uwe

    2015-01-01

    Three-dimensional canopies form complex architectures with temporally and spatially changing leaf orientations. Variations in canopy structure are linked to canopy function and they occur within the scope of genetic variability as well as a reaction to environmental factors like light, water and nutrient supply, and stress. An important key measure to characterize these structural properties is the leaf angle distribution, which in turn requires knowledge on the 3-dimensional single leaf surface. Despite a large number of 3-d sensors and methods only a few systems are applicable for fast and routine measurements in plants and natural canopies. A suitable approach is stereo imaging, which combines depth and color information that allows for easy segmentation of green leaf material and the extraction of plant traits, such as leaf angle distribution. We developed a software package, which provides tools for the quantification of leaf surface properties within natural canopies via 3-d reconstruction from stereo images. Our approach includes a semi-automatic selection process of single leaves and different modes of surface characterization via polygon smoothing or surface model fitting. Based on the resulting surface meshes leaf angle statistics are computed on the whole-leaf level or from local derivations. We include a case study to demonstrate the functionality of our software. 48 images of small sugar beet populations (4 varieties) have been analyzed on the base of their leaf angle distribution in order to investigate seasonal, genotypic and fertilization effects on leaf angle distributions. We could show that leaf angle distributions change during the course of the season with all varieties having a comparable development. Additionally, different varieties had different leaf angle orientation that could be separated in principle component analysis. In contrast nitrogen treatment had no effect on leaf angles. We show that a stereo imaging setup together with the

  1. Tool Efficiency Analysis model research in SEMI industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ma

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the key goals in SEMI industry is to improve equipment through put and ensure equipment production efficiency maximization. This paper is based on SEMI standards in semiconductor equipment control, defines the transaction rules between different tool states,and presents a TEA system model which is to analysis tool performance automatically based on finite state machine. The system was applied to fab tools and verified its effectiveness successfully, and obtained the parameter values used to measure the equipment performance, also including the advices of improvement.

  2. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  3. The Cryosphere Model Comparison Tool (CmCt): Ice Sheet Model Validation and Comparison Tool for Greenland and Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, E.; Nowicki, S.; Neumann, T.; Tyahla, L.; Saba, J. L.; Guerber, J. R.; Bonin, J. A.; DiMarzio, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Cryosphere model Comparison tool (CmCt) is a web based ice sheet model validation tool that is being developed by NASA to facilitate direct comparison between observational data and various ice sheet models. The CmCt allows the user to take advantage of several decades worth of observations from Greenland and Antarctica. Currently, the CmCt can be used to compare ice sheet models provided by the user with remotely sensed satellite data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, and radar altimetry (ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat). One or more models can be uploaded through the CmCt website and compared with observational data, or compared to each other or other models. The CmCt calculates statistics on the differences between the model and observations, and other quantitative and qualitative metrics, which can be used to evaluate the different model simulations against the observations. The qualitative metrics consist of a range of visual outputs and the quantitative metrics consist of several whole-ice-sheet scalar values that can be used to assign an overall score to a particular simulation. The comparison results from CmCt are useful in quantifying improvements within a specific model (or within a class of models) as a result of differences in model dynamics (e.g., shallow vs. higher-order dynamics approximations), model physics (e.g., representations of ice sheet rheological or basal processes), or model resolution (mesh resolution and/or changes in the spatial resolution of input datasets). The framework and metrics could also be used for use as a model-to-model intercomparison tool, simply by swapping outputs from another model as the observational datasets. Future versions of the tool will include comparisons with other datasets that are of interest to the modeling community, such as ice velocity, ice thickness, and surface mass balance.

  4. Business intelligence tools for radiology: creating a prototype model using open-source tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevedello, Luciano M; Andriole, Katherine P; Hanson, Richard; Kelly, Pauline; Khorasani, Ramin

    2010-04-01

    Digital radiology departments could benefit from the ability to integrate and visualize data (e.g. information reflecting complex workflow states) from all of their imaging and information management systems in one composite presentation view. Leveraging data warehousing tools developed in the business world may be one way to achieve this capability. In total, the concept of managing the information available in this data repository is known as Business Intelligence or BI. This paper describes the concepts used in Business Intelligence, their importance to modern Radiology, and the steps used in the creation of a prototype model of a data warehouse for BI using open-source tools.

  5. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  6. Systematic Methods and Tools for Computer Aided Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fedorova, Marina

    and processes can be faster, cheaper and very efficient. The developed modelling framework involves five main elements: 1) a modelling tool, that includes algorithms for model generation; 2) a template library, which provides building blocks for the templates (generic models previously developed); 3) computer......-format and COM-objects, are incorporated to allow the export and import of mathematical models; 5) a user interface that provides the work-flow and data-flow to guide the user through the different modelling tasks....

  7. Lightweight approach to model traceability in a CASE tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vileiniskis, Tomas; Skersys, Tomas; Pavalkis, Saulius; Butleris, Rimantas; Butkiene, Rita

    2017-07-01

    A term "model-driven" is not at all a new buzzword within the ranks of system development community. Nevertheless, the ever increasing complexity of model-driven approaches keeps fueling all kinds of discussions around this paradigm and pushes researchers forward to research and develop new and more effective ways to system development. With the increasing complexity, model traceability, and model management as a whole, becomes indispensable activities of model-driven system development process. The main goal of this paper is to present a conceptual design and implementation of a practical lightweight approach to model traceability in a CASE tool.

  8. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  9. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  10. OISI dynamic end-to-end modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersten, Michael; Weidler, Alexander; Wilhelm, Rainer; Johann, Ulrich A.; Szerdahelyi, Laszlo

    2000-07-01

    The OISI Dynamic end-to-end modeling tool is tailored to end-to-end modeling and dynamic simulation of Earth- and space-based actively controlled optical instruments such as e.g. optical stellar interferometers. `End-to-end modeling' is meant to denote the feature that the overall model comprises besides optical sub-models also structural, sensor, actuator, controller and disturbance sub-models influencing the optical transmission, so that the system- level instrument performance due to disturbances and active optics can be simulated. This tool has been developed to support performance analysis and prediction as well as control loop design and fine-tuning for OISI, Germany's preparatory program for optical/infrared spaceborne interferometry initiated in 1994 by Dornier Satellitensysteme GmbH in Friedrichshafen.

  11. Micropropagation as a tool for sustainable utilization and conservation of populations of Rhodophyta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nair S. Yokoya

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Micropropagation as a tool for sustainable utilization and conservation of populations of Rhodophyta. Micropropagation, or in vitro clonal propagation, allows the production of a large number of individuals within a short period. These micropropagated clones could be used as seedlings for seaweed cultivation, avoiding collection from natural beds. Consequently, there has been an increasing interest in micropropagation as a tool for preservation of populations of marine red algae on the Brazilian coast and for the sustainable production of raw material for commercial exploration. This paper reviews the literature on tissue culture and micropropagation of red algae published during the three last decades. Based on the literature, we can conclude that the regeneration process is complex and diversified in different species of Rhodophyta and that the success of micropropagation depends on this process. Species belonging to the orders Bangiales and Ceramiales showed low potential for regeneration, while Gigartinales species showed the highest potential for regeneration. Micropropagation of commercially important red algae is fundamental for the conservation of natural populations by providing seedlings for cultivation and for germplasm collections, both for the conservation of genetic diversity and for biotechnological applications.

  12. Modeling the dielectric logging tool at high frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chew, W.C.

    1987-01-01

    The high frequency dielectric logging tool has been used widely in electromagnetic well logging, because by measuring the dielectric constant at high frequencies (1 GHz), the water saturation of rocks could be known without measuring the water salinity in the rocks. As such, it could be used to delineate fresh water bearing zones, as the dielectric constant of fresh water is much higher than that of oil while they may have the same resistivity. The authors present a computer model, though electromagnetic field analysis, the response of such a measurement tool in a well logging environment. As the measurement is performed at high frequency, usually with small separation between the transmitter and receivers, some small geological features could be measured by such a tool. They use the computer model to study the behavior of such a tool across geological bed boundaries, and also across thin geological beds. Such a study could be very useful in understanding the limitation on the resolution of the tool. Furthermore, they could study the standoff effect and the depth of investigation of such a tool. This could delineate the range of usefulness of the measurement

  13. Modeling with data tools and techniques for scientific computing

    CERN Document Server

    Klemens, Ben

    2009-01-01

    Modeling with Data fully explains how to execute computationally intensive analyses on very large data sets, showing readers how to determine the best methods for solving a variety of different problems, how to create and debug statistical models, and how to run an analysis and evaluate the results. Ben Klemens introduces a set of open and unlimited tools, and uses them to demonstrate data management, analysis, and simulation techniques essential for dealing with large data sets and computationally intensive procedures. He then demonstrates how to easily apply these tools to the many threads of statistical technique, including classical, Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and Monte Carlo methods

  14. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  15. Open source Modeling and optimization tools for Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peles, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    Open source modeling and optimization tools for planning The existing tools and software used for planning and analysis in California are either expensive, difficult to use, or not generally accessible to a large number of participants. These limitations restrict the availability of participants for larger scale energy and grid studies in the state. The proposed initiative would build upon federal and state investments in open source software, and create and improve open source tools for use in the state planning and analysis activities. Computational analysis and simulation frameworks in development at national labs and universities can be brought forward to complement existing tools. An open source platform would provide a path for novel techniques and strategies to be brought into the larger community and reviewed by a broad set of stakeholders.

  16. Analytical Modelling Of Milling For Tool Design And Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, M.; Devillez, A.; Dudzinski, D.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient analytical model which allows to simulate a large panel of milling operations. A geometrical description of common end mills and of their engagement in the workpiece material is proposed. The internal radius of the rounded part of the tool envelope is used to define the considered type of mill. The cutting edge position is described for a constant lead helix and for a constant local helix angle. A thermomechanical approach of oblique cutting is applied to predict forces acting on the tool and these results are compared with experimental data obtained from milling tests on a 42CrMo4 steel for three classical types of mills. The influence of some tool's geometrical parameters on predicted cutting forces is presented in order to propose optimisation criteria for design and selection of cutting tools

  17. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-10-24

    The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

  18. A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.

  19. Development Life Cycle and Tools for XML Content Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulvatunyou, Boonserm [ORNL; Morris, Katherine [National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST); Buhwan, Jeong [POSTECH University, South Korea; Goyal, Puja [National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

    2004-11-01

    Many integration projects today rely on shared semantic models based on standards represented using Extensible Mark up Language (XML) technologies. Shared semantic models typically evolve and require maintenance. In addition, to promote interoperability and reduce integration costs, the shared semantics should be reused as much as possible. Semantic components must be consistent and valid in terms of agreed upon standards and guidelines. In this paper, we describe an activity model for creation, use, and maintenance of a shared semantic model that is coherent and supports efficient enterprise integration. We then use this activity model to frame our research and the development of tools to support those activities. We provide overviews of these tools primarily in the context of the W3C XML Schema. At the present, we focus our work on the W3C XML Schema as the representation of choice, due to its extensive adoption by industry.

  20. Using the IEA ETSAP modelling tools for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik

    signed the agreement and contributed to some early annexes. This project is motivated by an invitation to participate in ETSAP Annex X, "Global Energy Systems and Common Analyses: Climate friendly, Secure and Productive Energy Systems" for the period 2005 to 2007. The main activity is semi......-annual workshops focusing on presentations of model analyses and use of the ETSAP' tools (the MARKAL/TIMES family of models). The project was also planned to benefit from the EU project ”NEEDS - New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability. ETSAP is contributing to a part of NEEDS that develops......, Environment and Health (CEEH), starting from January 2007. This report summarises the activities under ETSAP Annex X and related project, emphasising the development of modelling tools that will be useful for modelling the Danish energy system. It is also a status report for the development of a model...

  1. Designing tools for oil exploration using nuclear modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauborgne Marie-Laure

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available When designing nuclear tools for oil exploration, one of the first steps is typically nuclear modeling for concept evaluation and initial characterization. Having an accurate model, including the availability of accurate cross sections, is essential to reduce or avoid time consuming and costly design iterations. During tool response characterization, modeling is benchmarked with experimental data and then used to complement and to expand the database to make it more detailed and inclusive of more measurement environments which are difficult or impossible to reproduce in the laboratory. We present comparisons of our modeling results obtained using the ENDF/B-VI and ENDF/B-VII cross section data bases, focusing on the response to a few elements found in the tool, borehole and subsurface formation. For neutron-induced inelastic and capture gamma ray spectroscopy, major obstacles may be caused by missing or inaccurate cross sections for essential materials. We show examples of the benchmarking of modeling results against experimental data obtained during tool characterization and discuss observed discrepancies.

  2. Designing tools for oil exploration using nuclear modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauborgne, Marie-Laure; Allioli, Françoise; Manclossi, Mauro; Nicoletti, Luisa; Stoller, Chris; Evans, Mike

    2017-09-01

    When designing nuclear tools for oil exploration, one of the first steps is typically nuclear modeling for concept evaluation and initial characterization. Having an accurate model, including the availability of accurate cross sections, is essential to reduce or avoid time consuming and costly design iterations. During tool response characterization, modeling is benchmarked with experimental data and then used to complement and to expand the database to make it more detailed and inclusive of more measurement environments which are difficult or impossible to reproduce in the laboratory. We present comparisons of our modeling results obtained using the ENDF/B-VI and ENDF/B-VII cross section data bases, focusing on the response to a few elements found in the tool, borehole and subsurface formation. For neutron-induced inelastic and capture gamma ray spectroscopy, major obstacles may be caused by missing or inaccurate cross sections for essential materials. We show examples of the benchmarking of modeling results against experimental data obtained during tool characterization and discuss observed discrepancies.

  3. Menstrual pad, a cervical cancer screening tool, a population-based study in rural India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budukh, Atul; Palayekar, Vrushali; Maheshwari, Amita; Deodhar, Kedar; Purwar, Pallavi; Bagal, Sonali; Vadigoppula, Ashok; Lokhande, Manoj; Panse, Nandkumar; Dikshit, Rajesh; Badwe, Rajendra

    2017-07-12

    In the rural areas of India, women generally use a piece of old cloth as a menstrual device. The aim of this study was to detect human papilloma virus (HPV) from menstrual blood on the menstrual pad and assess whether this could be a useful screening tool for cervical cancer. In Jamkhed area of rural Maharashtra, (population A), we collected menstrual pads from women who provided consent in the 30-50 year age group. The women who had provided menstrual pads underwent HC2 testing. We standardized the method for extracting DNA by PCR from the menstrual pad. The women who tested HPV positive, on the basis of HC2/PCR testing, underwent colposcopy. In the rural population of Pune area of Maharashtra state (population B), menstrual pads were collected. HPV was tested using the PCR method. HPV-positive women and a few HPV-negative women, selected randomly, underwent colposcopy and HC2 testing. In population A, 164 women provided their used menstrual pads and also underwent an HC2 screening test. Of these, six (3.2%) cases were reported as HPV positive. In population B, 365 women provided their used menstrual pads for HPV testing, of which 18 (4.9%) cases were diagnosed as HPV positive. The women who tested HPV positive, on the basis of PCR testing, and 10% randomly selected HPV-negative cases (37) and 18 women who voluntary requested testing underwent colposcopy and HC2 testing. The sensitivity of menstrual pad HPV testing compared with gold standard HC2 testing was 83% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.47-0.97], 67% (95% CI: 0.30-0.91) and specificity was 99% (95% CI: 0.96-0.99), 88% (95% CI: 0.77-0.94) in population A and population B, respectively. The sensitivity of diagnosing CIN lesion was 83% (95% CI: 0.44-0.97) and specificity was 95% (95% CI: 0.91-0.97). On the basis of the sensitivity and specificity results, and the completely noninvasive, simple and convenient method of detecting HPV, menstrual pad might be considered a cervical cancer screening tool in rural

  4. Measuring Resilience in the Adolescent Population: A Succinct Tool for Outpatient Adolescent Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barger, Jordan; Vitale, Patty; Gaughan, John P; Feldman-Winter, Lori

    2017-10-01

    To create a valid tool to measure adolescent resilience, and to determine if this tool correlates with current participation in risk behaviors and prior adverse childhood events. One hundred adolescents were recruited from primary care clinics in New Jersey for this cross-sectional study. A "7Cs tool" was developed to measure resilience using the 7Cs model of resilience. All participants completed the 7Cs tool, the Adverse Childhood Events Survey, and the Health Survey for Adolescents to identify current risk behaviors. Demographic and background data were also collected. To assess the validity of the 7Cs tool, Cronbach alpha, principal factor analysis, Spearman coefficients, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. The χ 2 test and ORs were used to determine if any relationships exist between resilience and prior adverse childhood events and risk taking behaviors. Participants ranged from 13 to 21 years old (65% female). Internal consistency was established using Cronbach alpha (0.7). Lower resilience correlated with higher adverse childhood events (P = .008) and Health Survey for Adolescents scores (P resilience was associated with increased problems in school (OR 2.6; P = .021), drug use (OR 4.0; P = .004), violent behavior (OR 3.7; P = .002), recent depression (OR 5.0; P resilience was associated with participation in exercise (P = .001) and activities (P = .01). The 7Cs tool is an internally validated tool that may be used to screen adolescent resilience and guide pediatricians' counseling against risk behaviors. Further studies will evaluate resilience-building interventions based on results from this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. BPMNDiffViz : a tool for BPMN models comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanov, S.Y.; Kalenkova, A.A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Daniel, F.; Zugal, S.

    2015-01-01

    Automatic comparison of business processes plays an important role in their analysis and optimization. In this paper we present the web-based tool BPMNDiffViz, that finds business processes discrepancies and visualizes them. BPMN (Business Process Model and Notation) 2.0 - one of the most commonly

  6. HMMEditor: a visual editing tool for profile hidden Markov model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Jianlin

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a powerful statistical model to represent a family of DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. Profile HMM has been widely used in bioinformatics research such as sequence alignment, gene structure prediction, motif identification, protein structure prediction, and biological database search. However, few comprehensive, visual editing tools for profile HMM are publicly available. Results We develop a visual editor for profile Hidden Markov Models (HMMEditor. HMMEditor can visualize the profile HMM architecture, transition probabilities, and emission probabilities. Moreover, it provides functions to edit and save HMM and parameters. Furthermore, HMMEditor allows users to align a sequence against the profile HMM and to visualize the corresponding Viterbi path. Conclusion HMMEditor provides a set of unique functions to visualize and edit a profile HMM. It is a useful tool for biological sequence analysis and modeling. Both HMMEditor software and web service are freely available.

  7. Rapid State Space Modeling Tool for Rectangular Wing Aeroservoelastic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Peter M.; Conyers, Howard Jason; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2015-01-01

    This report introduces a modeling and simulation tool for aeroservoelastic analysis of rectangular wings with trailing-edge control surfaces. The inputs to the code are planform design parameters such as wing span, aspect ratio, and number of control surfaces. Using this information, the generalized forces are computed using the doublet-lattice method. Using Roger's approximation, a rational function approximation is computed. The output, computed in a few seconds, is a state space aeroservoelastic model which can be used for analysis and control design. The tool is fully parameterized with default information so there is little required interaction with the model developer. All parameters can be easily modified if desired. The focus of this report is on tool presentation, verification, and validation. These processes are carried out in stages throughout the report. The rational function approximation is verified against computed generalized forces for a plate model. A model composed of finite element plates is compared to a modal analysis from commercial software and an independently conducted experimental ground vibration test analysis. Aeroservoelastic analysis is the ultimate goal of this tool, therefore, the flutter speed and frequency for a clamped plate are computed using damping-versus-velocity and frequency-versus-velocity analysis. The computational results are compared to a previously published computational analysis and wind-tunnel results for the same structure. A case study of a generic wing model with a single control surface is presented. Verification of the state space model is presented in comparison to damping-versus-velocity and frequency-versus-velocity analysis, including the analysis of the model in response to a 1-cos gust.

  8. QUALITY SERVICES EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON DEDICATED SOFTWARE TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREEA CRISTINA IONICĂ

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we introduced a new model, called Service Quality (SQ, which combines QFD and SERVQUAL methods. This model takes from the SERVQUAL method the five dimensions of requirements and three of characteristics and from the QFD method the application methodology. The originality of the SQ model consists in computing a global index that reflects the customers’ requirements accomplishment level by the quality characteristics. In order to prove the viability of the SQ model, there was developed a software tool that was applied for the evaluation of a health care services provider.

  9. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community

    OpenAIRE

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modellin...

  10. AgMIP Training in Multiple Crop Models and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boote, Kenneth J.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Hargreaves, John; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Thornburn, Peter; Mutter, Carolyn

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has the goal of using multiple crop models to evaluate climate impacts on agricultural production and food security in developed and developing countries. There are several major limitations that must be overcome to achieve this goal, including the need to train AgMIP regional research team (RRT) crop modelers to use models other than the ones they are currently familiar with, plus the need to harmonize and interconvert the disparate input file formats used for the various models. Two activities were followed to address these shortcomings among AgMIP RRTs to enable them to use multiple models to evaluate climate impacts on crop production and food security. We designed and conducted courses in which participants trained on two different sets of crop models, with emphasis on the model of least experience. In a second activity, the AgMIP IT group created templates for inputting data on soils, management, weather, and crops into AgMIP harmonized databases, and developed translation tools for converting the harmonized data into files that are ready for multiple crop model simulations. The strategies for creating and conducting the multi-model course and developing entry and translation tools are reviewed in this chapter.

  11. Model-based setup assistant for progressive tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Robert; Gräler, Manuel; Homberg, Werner; Henke, Christian; Trächtler, Ansgar

    2018-05-01

    In the field of production systems, globalization and technological progress lead to increasing requirements regarding part quality, delivery time and costs. Hence, today's production is challenged much more than a few years ago: it has to be very flexible and produce economically small batch sizes to satisfy consumer's demands and avoid unnecessary stock. Furthermore, a trend towards increasing functional integration continues to lead to an ongoing miniaturization of sheet metal components. In the industry of electric connectivity for example, the miniaturized connectors are manufactured by progressive tools, which are usually used for very large batches. These tools are installed in mechanical presses and then set up by a technician, who has to manually adjust a wide range of punch-bending operations. Disturbances like material thickness, temperatures, lubrication or tool wear complicate the setup procedure. In prospect of the increasing demand of production flexibility, this time-consuming process has to be handled more and more often. In this paper, a new approach for a model-based setup assistant is proposed as a solution, which is exemplarily applied in combination with a progressive tool. First, progressive tools, more specifically, their setup process is described and based on that, the challenges are pointed out. As a result, a systematic process to set up the machines is introduced. Following, the process is investigated with an FE-Analysis regarding the effects of the disturbances. In the next step, design of experiments is used to systematically develop a regression model of the system's behaviour. This model is integrated within an optimization in order to calculate optimal machine parameters and the following necessary adjustment of the progressive tool due to the disturbances. Finally, the assistant is tested in a production environment and the results are discussed.

  12. Comparing deep learning models for population screening using chest radiography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivaramakrishnan, R.; Antani, Sameer; Candemir, Sema; Xue, Zhiyun; Abuya, Joseph; Kohli, Marc; Alderson, Philip; Thoma, George

    2018-02-01

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), tuberculosis (TB) remains the most deadly infectious disease in the world. In a 2015 global annual TB report, 1.5 million TB related deaths were reported. The conditions worsened in 2016 with 1.7 million reported deaths and more than 10 million people infected with the disease. Analysis of frontal chest X-rays (CXR) is one of the most popular methods for initial TB screening, however, the method is impacted by the lack of experts for screening chest radiographs. Computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) tools have gained significance because they reduce the human burden in screening and diagnosis, particularly in countries that lack substantial radiology services. State-of-the-art CADx software typically is based on machine learning (ML) approaches that use hand-engineered features, demanding expertise in analyzing the input variances and accounting for the changes in size, background, angle, and position of the region of interest (ROI) on the underlying medical imagery. More automatic Deep Learning (DL) tools have demonstrated promising results in a wide range of ML applications. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), a class of DL models, have gained research prominence in image classification, detection, and localization tasks because they are highly scalable and deliver superior results with end-to-end feature extraction and classification. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CNN based DL models for population screening using frontal CXRs. The results demonstrate that pre-trained CNNs are a promising feature extracting tool for medical imagery including the automated diagnosis of TB from chest radiographs but emphasize the importance of large data sets for the most accurate classification.

  13. Validation of an early childhood caries risk assessment tool in a low-income Hispanic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio-Lumsden, Christie L; Wolf, Randi L; Contento, Isobel R; Basch, Charles E; Zybert, Patricia A; Koch, Pamela A; Edelstein, Burton L

    2016-03-01

    There is a recognized need for valid risk assessment tools for use by both dental and nondental personnel to identify young children at risk for, or with, precavitated stages of early childhood caries (i.e., early stage decalcifications or white spot lesions).The aim of this study is to establish concurrent criterion validity of "MySmileBuddy" (MSB), a novel technology-assisted ECC risk assessment and behavioral intervention tool against four measures of ECC activity: semi-quantitative assays of salivary mutans streptococci levels, visible quantity of dental plaque, visual evidence of enamel decalcifications, and cavitation status (none, ECC, severe ECC). One hundred eight children 2-6 years of age presenting to a pediatric dental clinic were recruited from a predominantly Spanish-speaking, low-income, urban population. All children received a comprehensive oral examination and saliva culture for assessment of ECC indicators. Their caregivers completed the iPad-based MSB assessment in its entirety (15-20 minutes). MSB calculated both diet and comprehensive ECC risk scores. Associations between all variables were determined using ordinal logistic regression. MSB diet risk scores were significantly positively associated with salivary mutans (P valid risk assessment tool for identifying children with early precursors of cavitations but does not add value in identifying children with extant lesions. © 2015 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  14. Continued development of modeling tools and theory for RF heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Mission Research Corporation (MRC) is pleased to present the Department of Energy (DOE) with its renewal proposal to the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating program. The objective of the program is to continue and extend the earlier work done by the proposed principal investigator in the field of modeling (Radio Frequency) RF heating experiments in the large tokamak fusion experiments, particularly the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) device located at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). An integral part of this work is the investigation and, in some cases, resolution of theoretical issues which pertain to accurate modeling. MRC is nearing the successful completion of the specified tasks of the Continued Development of Modeling Tools and Theory for RF Heating project. The following tasks are either completed or nearing completion. (1) Anisotropic temperature and rotation upgrades; (2) Modeling for relativistic ECRH; (3) Further documentation of SHOOT and SPRUCE. As a result of the progress achieved under this project, MRC has been urged to continue this effort. Specifically, during the performance of this project two topics were identified by PPPL personnel as new applications of the existing RF modeling tools. These two topics concern (a) future fast-wave current drive experiments on the large tokamaks including TFTR and (c) the interpretation of existing and future RF probe data from TFTR. To address each of these topics requires some modification or enhancement of the existing modeling tools, and the first topic requires resolution of certain theoretical issues to produce self-consistent results. This work falls within the scope of the original project and is more suited to the project's renewal than to the initiation of a new project

  15. Development and validation of a fine-motor assessment tool for use with young children in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siu, Andrew M H; Lai, Cynthia Y Y; Chiu, Amy S M; Yip, Calvin C K

    2011-01-01

    Most of the fine-motor assessment tools used in Hong Kong have been designed in Western countries, so there is a need to develop a standardized assessment which is relevant to the culture and daily living tasks of the local (that is, Chinese) population. This study aimed to (1) develop a fine-motor assessment tool (the Hong Kong Preschool Fine-Motor Developmental Assessment [HK-PFMDA]) for use with young children in a Chinese population and (2) examine the HK-PFMDA's psychometric properties. The HK-PFMDA was developed by a group of occupational therapists specializing in the area of developmental disabilities in Hong Kong. A panel of 21 experts reviewed the content validity of the instrument. Rasch item analysis was used to examine the model fit of items against the rating scale model, and to explore the dimensionality of the test. Intra- and interrater reliability, convergent validity, and criterion-related validity were examined. The participants included 783 children without disabilities, 45 with autistic spectrum disorder, and 35 with developmental delay. The Rasch analysis suggested that the 87-item HK-PFMDA had a unidimensional structure, as the items explained most (91.6%) of the variance. The HK-PFMDA demonstrated excellent intra- (ICC = .99) and interrater reliability (ICC = .99), and internal consistency (α ranging from .83 to .92). In terms of validity, the HK-PFMDA had significant positive correlations with both age and the convergent measures of the Peabody Developmental Motor Scales (PDMS-2). A set of normative data for local children aged from birth to 6 years was established. The HK-PFMDA has shown excellent psychometric properties and is suitable for clinical application by occupational therapists in the assessment of fine-motor skills development of young children in Chinese populations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Programming Models and Tools for Intelligent Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Verner Bojsen

    Design automation and analysis tools targeting embedded platforms, developed using a component-based design approach, must be able to reason about the capabilities of the platforms. In the general case where nothing is assumed about the components comprising a platform or the platform topology...... is used for checking the consistency of a design with respect to the availablity of services and resources. In the second application, a tool for automatically implementing the communication infrastructure of a process network application, the Service Relation Model is used for analyzing the capabilities...

  17. A review of the key genetic tools to assist imperiled species conservation: analyzing West Indian manatee populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonde, Robert K.; McGuire, Peter M.; Hunter, Margaret E.

    2012-01-01

    Managers faced with decisions on threatened and endangered wildlife populations often are lacking detailed information about the species of concern. Integration of genetic applications will provide management teams with a better ability to assess and monitor recovery efforts on imperiled species. The field of molecular biology continues to progress rapidly and many tools are currently available. Presently, little guidance is available to assist researchers and managers with the appropriate selection of genetic tools to study the status of wild manatee populations. We discuss several genetic tools currently employed in the application of conservation genetics, and address the utility of using these tools to determine population status to aid in conservation efforts. As an example, special emphasis is focused on the endangered West Indian manatee (Order Sirenia). All four extant species of sirenians are imperiled throughout their range, predominately due to anthropogenic sources; therefore, the need for genetic information on their population status is direly needed.

  18. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  19. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  20. Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Gustavsson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

  1. Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.

    2017-01-01

    Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

  2. DsixTools: the standard model effective field theory toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celis, Alejandro [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Fakultaet fuer Physik, Arnold Sommerfeld Center for Theoretical Physics, Munich (Germany); Fuentes-Martin, Javier; Vicente, Avelino [Universitat de Valencia-CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Virto, Javier [University of Bern, Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Bern (Switzerland)

    2017-06-15

    We present DsixTools, a Mathematica package for the handling of the dimension-six standard model effective field theory. Among other features, DsixTools allows the user to perform the full one-loop renormalization group evolution of the Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis. This is achieved thanks to the SMEFTrunner module, which implements the full one-loop anomalous dimension matrix previously derived in the literature. In addition, DsixTools also contains modules devoted to the matching to the ΔB = ΔS = 1, 2 and ΔB = ΔC = 1 operators of the Weak Effective Theory at the electroweak scale, and their QCD and QED Renormalization group evolution below the electroweak scale. (orig.)

  3. ISAC: A tool for aeroservoelastic modeling and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, William M., Jr.; Hoadley, Sherwood Tiffany

    1993-01-01

    The capabilities of the Interaction of Structures, Aerodynamics, and Controls (ISAC) system of program modules is discussed. The major modeling, analysis, and data management components of ISAC are identified. Equations of motion are displayed for a Laplace-domain representation of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Options for approximating a frequency-domain representation of unsteady aerodynamic forces with rational functions of the Laplace variable are shown. Linear time invariant state-space equations of motion that result are discussed. Model generation and analyses of stability and dynamic response characteristics are shown for an aeroelastic vehicle which illustrates some of the capabilities of ISAC as a modeling and analysis tool for aeroelastic applications.

  4. Graphite-MicroMégas, a tool for DNA modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Hornus , Samuel; Larivière , Damien

    2011-01-01

    National audience; MicroMégas is the current state of an ongoing effort to develop tools for modeling biological assembly of molecules. We here present its DNA modeling part. MicroMégas is implemented as a plug-in to Graphite, which is a research plat- form for computer graphics, 3D modeling and numerical geometry that is developed by members of the ALICE team of INRIA.; Nous décrivons l'outils MicroMégas et les techniques qu'il met en jeu pour la modélisation d'assemblage de molécule, en par...

  5. Models as Tools of Analysis of a Network Organisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Pająk

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents models which may be applied as tools of analysis of a network organisation. The starting point of the discussion is defining the following terms: supply chain and network organisation. Further parts of the paper present basic assumptions analysis of a network organisation. Then the study characterises the best known models utilised in analysis of a network organisation. The purpose of the article is to define the notion and the essence of network organizations and to present the models used for their analysis.

  6. Theoretical Modeling of Rock Breakage by Hydraulic and Mechanical Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rock breakage by coupled mechanical and hydraulic action has been developed over the past several decades, but theoretical study on rock fragmentation by mechanical tool with water pressure assistance was still lacking. The theoretical model of rock breakage by mechanical tool was developed based on the rock fracture mechanics and the solution of Boussinesq’s problem, and it could explain the process of rock fragmentation as well as predicating the peak reacting force. The theoretical model of rock breakage by coupled mechanical and hydraulic action was developed according to the superposition principle of intensity factors at the crack tip, and the reacting force of mechanical tool assisted by hydraulic action could be reduced obviously if the crack with a critical length could be produced by mechanical or hydraulic impact. The experimental results indicated that the peak reacting force could be reduced about 15% assisted by medium water pressure, and quick reduction of reacting force after peak value decreased the specific energy consumption of rock fragmentation by mechanical tool. The crack formation by mechanical or hydraulic impact was the prerequisite to improvement of the ability of combined breakage.

  7. DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan K Lhachimi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

  8. Computer modelling as a tool for understanding language evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bart; Gontier, N; VanBendegem, JP; Aerts, D

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the uses of computer models in studying the evolution of language. Language is a complex dynamic system that can be studied at the level of the individual and at the level of the population. Much of the dynamics of language evolution and language change occur because of the

  9. Using the IEA ETSAP modelling tools for Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik

    2008-12-15

    An important part of the cooperation within the IEA (International Energy Agency) is organised through national contributions to 'Implementation Agreements' on energy technology and energy analyses. One of them is ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme), started in 1976. Denmark has signed the agreement and contributed to some early annexes. This project is motivated by an invitation to participate in ETSAP Annex X, 'Global Energy Systems and Common Analyses: Climate friendly, Secure and Productive Energy Systems' for the period 2005 to 2007. The main activity is semi-annual workshops focusing on presentations of model analyses and use of the ETSAP tools (the MARKAL/TIMES family of models). The project was also planned to benefit from the EU project 'NEEDS - New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability'. ETSAP is contributing to a part of NEEDS that develops the TIMES model for 29 European countries with assessment of future technologies. An additional project 'Monitoring and Evaluation of the RES directives: implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020' (RES2020) under Intelligent Energy Europe was added, as well as the Danish 'Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH), starting from January 2007. This report summarises the activities under ETSAP Annex X and related project, emphasising the development of modelling tools that will be useful for modelling the Danish energy system. It is also a status report for the development of a model for Denmark, focusing on the tools and features that allow comparison with other countries and, particularly, to evaluate assumptions and results in international models covering Denmark. (au)

  10. Introduction to genetic algorithms as a modeling tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wildberger, A.M.; Hickok, K.A.

    1990-01-01

    Genetic algorithms are search and classification techniques modeled on natural adaptive systems. This is an introduction to their use as a modeling tool with emphasis on prospects for their application in the power industry. It is intended to provide enough background information for its audience to begin to follow technical developments in genetic algorithms and to recognize those which might impact on electric power engineering. Beginning with a discussion of genetic algorithms and their origin as a model of biological adaptation, their advantages and disadvantages are described in comparison with other modeling tools such as simulation and neural networks in order to provide guidance in selecting appropriate applications. In particular, their use is described for improving expert systems from actual data and they are suggested as an aid in building mathematical models. Using the Thermal Performance Advisor as an example, it is suggested how genetic algorithms might be used to make a conventional expert system and mathematical model of a power plant adapt automatically to changes in the plant's characteristics

  11. A new tool for accelerator system modeling and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, G.H.; Hill, B.W.; Jameson, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    A novel computer code is being developed to generate system level designs of radiofrequency ion accelerators. The goal of the Accelerator System Model (ASM) code is to create a modeling and analysis tool that is easy to use, automates many of the initial design calculations, supports trade studies used in assessing alternate designs and yet is flexible enough to incorporate new technology concepts as they emerge. Hardware engineering parameters and beam dynamics are modeled at comparable levels of fidelity. Existing scaling models of accelerator subsystems were sued to produce a prototype of ASM (version 1.0) working within the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Codes (SPARC) graphical user interface. A small user group has been testing and evaluating the prototype for about a year. Several enhancements and improvements are now being developed. The current version (1.1) of ASM is briefly described and an example of the modeling and analysis capabilities is illustrated

  12. Surviving the present: Modeling tools for organizational change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pangaro, P.

    1992-01-01

    The nuclear industry, like the rest of modern American business, is beset by a confluence of economic, technological, competitive, regulatory, and political pressures. For better or worse, business schools and management consultants have leapt to the rescue, offering the most modern conveniences that they can purvey. Recent advances in the study of organizations have led to new tools for their analysis, revision, and repair. There are two complementary tools that do not impose values or injunctions in themselves. One, called the organization modeler, captures the hierarchy of purposes that organizations and their subparts carry out. Any deficiency or pathology is quickly illuminated, and requirements for repair are made clear. The second, called THOUGHTSTICKER, is used to capture the semantic content of the conversations that occur across the interactions of parts of an organization. The distinctions and vocabulary in the language of an organization, and the relations within that domain, are elicited from the participants so that all three are available for debate and refinement. The product of the applications of these modeling tools is not the resulting models but rather the enhancement of the organization as a consequence of the process of constructing them

  13. EggLib: processing, analysis and simulation tools for population genetics and genomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Mita Stéphane

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With the considerable growth of available nucleotide sequence data over the last decade, integrated and flexible analytical tools have become a necessity. In particular, in the field of population genetics, there is a strong need for automated and reliable procedures to conduct repeatable and rapid polymorphism analyses, coalescent simulations, data manipulation and estimation of demographic parameters under a variety of scenarios. Results In this context, we present EggLib (Evolutionary Genetics and Genomics Library, a flexible and powerful C++/Python software package providing efficient and easy to use computational tools for sequence data management and extensive population genetic analyses on nucleotide sequence data. EggLib is a multifaceted project involving several integrated modules: an underlying computationally efficient C++ library (which can be used independently in pure C++ applications; two C++ programs; a Python package providing, among other features, a high level Python interface to the C++ library; and the egglib script which provides direct access to pre-programmed Python applications. Conclusions EggLib has been designed aiming to be both efficient and easy to use. A wide array of methods are implemented, including file format conversion, sequence alignment edition, coalescent simulations, neutrality tests and estimation of demographic parameters by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC. Classes implementing different demographic scenarios for ABC analyses can easily be developed by the user and included to the package. EggLib source code is distributed freely under the GNU General Public License (GPL from its website http://egglib.sourceforge.net/ where a full documentation and a manual can also be found and downloaded.

  14. EggLib: processing, analysis and simulation tools for population genetics and genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Mita, Stéphane; Siol, Mathieu

    2012-04-11

    With the considerable growth of available nucleotide sequence data over the last decade, integrated and flexible analytical tools have become a necessity. In particular, in the field of population genetics, there is a strong need for automated and reliable procedures to conduct repeatable and rapid polymorphism analyses, coalescent simulations, data manipulation and estimation of demographic parameters under a variety of scenarios. In this context, we present EggLib (Evolutionary Genetics and Genomics Library), a flexible and powerful C++/Python software package providing efficient and easy to use computational tools for sequence data management and extensive population genetic analyses on nucleotide sequence data. EggLib is a multifaceted project involving several integrated modules: an underlying computationally efficient C++ library (which can be used independently in pure C++ applications); two C++ programs; a Python package providing, among other features, a high level Python interface to the C++ library; and the egglib script which provides direct access to pre-programmed Python applications. EggLib has been designed aiming to be both efficient and easy to use. A wide array of methods are implemented, including file format conversion, sequence alignment edition, coalescent simulations, neutrality tests and estimation of demographic parameters by Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Classes implementing different demographic scenarios for ABC analyses can easily be developed by the user and included to the package. EggLib source code is distributed freely under the GNU General Public License (GPL) from its website http://egglib.sourceforge.net/ where a full documentation and a manual can also be found and downloaded.

  15. Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Blencowe

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST, and potential future refinements. Methods The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed. Results High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum. Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage

  16. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  17. An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa ( κ ): 0

  18. Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

    2017-01-01

    The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

  19. Models and Modelling Tools for Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    2016-01-01

    The design, development and reliability of a chemical product and the process to manufacture it, need to be consistent with the end-use characteristics of the desired product. One of the common ways to match the desired product-process characteristics is through trial and error based experiments......-based framework is that in the design, development and/or manufacturing of a chemical product-process, the knowledge of the applied phenomena together with the product-process design details can be provided with diverse degrees of abstractions and details. This would allow the experimental resources...... to be employed for validation and fine-tuning of the solutions from the model-based framework, thereby, removing the need for trial and error experimental steps. Also, questions related to economic feasibility, operability and sustainability, among others, can be considered in the early stages of design. However...

  20. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  1. RelocaTE2: a high resolution transposable element insertion site mapping tool for population resequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinfeng Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Transposable element (TE polymorphisms are important components of population genetic variation. The functional impacts of TEs in gene regulation and generating genetic diversity have been observed in multiple species, but the frequency and magnitude of TE variation is under appreciated. Inexpensive and deep sequencing technology has made it affordable to apply population genetic methods to whole genomes with methods that identify single nucleotide and insertion/deletion polymorphisms. However, identifying TE polymorphisms, particularly transposition events or non-reference insertion sites can be challenging due to the repetitive nature of these sequences, which hamper both the sensitivity and specificity of analysis tools. Methods We have developed the tool RelocaTE2 for identification of TE insertion sites at high sensitivity and specificity. RelocaTE2 searches for known TE sequences in whole genome sequencing reads from second generation sequencing platforms such as Illumina. These sequence reads are used as seeds to pinpoint chromosome locations where TEs have transposed. RelocaTE2 detects target site duplication (TSD of TE insertions allowing it to report TE polymorphism loci with single base pair precision. Results and Discussion The performance of RelocaTE2 is evaluated using both simulated and real sequence data. RelocaTE2 demonstrate high level of sensitivity and specificity, particularly when the sequence coverage is not shallow. In comparison to other tools tested, RelocaTE2 achieves the best balance between sensitivity and specificity. In particular, RelocaTE2 performs best in prediction of TSDs for TE insertions. Even in highly repetitive regions, such as those tested on rice chromosome 4, RelocaTE2 is able to report up to 95% of simulated TE insertions with less than 0.1% false positive rate using 10-fold genome coverage resequencing data. RelocaTE2 provides a robust solution to identify TE insertion sites and can be

  2. Hyperacusis Questionnaire as a Tool for Measuring Hypersensitivity to Sound in a Tinnitus Research Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Fackrell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypersensitivity to external sounds is often comorbid with tinnitus and may be significant for adherence to certain types of tinnitus management. Therefore, a clear measure of sensitivity to sound is important. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the Hyperacusis Questionnaire (HQ for use as a measurement tool using data from a sample of 264 adults who took part in tinnitus research. We evaluated the HQ factor structure, internal consistency, convergent and discriminant validity, and floor and ceiling effects. Internal consistency was high (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.88 and moderate correlations were observed between the HQ, uncomfortable loudness levels, and other health questionnaires. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the original HQ three-factor solution and a one-factor solution were both a poor fit to the data. Four problematic items were removed and exploratory factor analysis identified a two-factor (attentional and social solution. The original three-factor structure of the HQ was not confirmed. All fourteen items do not accurately assess hypersensitivity to sound in a tinnitus population. We propose a 10-item (2-factor version of the HQ, which will need to be confirmed using a new tinnitus and perhaps nontinnitus population.

  3. Hyperacusis Questionnaire as a Tool for Measuring Hypersensitivity to Sound in a Tinnitus Research Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fackrell, Kathryn; Fearnley, Constance; Hoare, Derek J; Sereda, Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Hypersensitivity to external sounds is often comorbid with tinnitus and may be significant for adherence to certain types of tinnitus management. Therefore, a clear measure of sensitivity to sound is important. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the Hyperacusis Questionnaire (HQ) for use as a measurement tool using data from a sample of 264 adults who took part in tinnitus research. We evaluated the HQ factor structure, internal consistency, convergent and discriminant validity, and floor and ceiling effects. Internal consistency was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.88) and moderate correlations were observed between the HQ, uncomfortable loudness levels, and other health questionnaires. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the original HQ three-factor solution and a one-factor solution were both a poor fit to the data. Four problematic items were removed and exploratory factor analysis identified a two-factor (attentional and social) solution. The original three-factor structure of the HQ was not confirmed. All fourteen items do not accurately assess hypersensitivity to sound in a tinnitus population. We propose a 10-item (2-factor) version of the HQ, which will need to be confirmed using a new tinnitus and perhaps nontinnitus population.

  4. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  5. Mouse Models for Drug Discovery. Can New Tools and Technology Improve Translational Power?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuberi, Aamir; Lutz, Cathleen

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The use of mouse models in biomedical research and preclinical drug evaluation is on the rise. The advent of new molecular genome-altering technologies such as CRISPR/Cas9 allows for genetic mutations to be introduced into the germ line of a mouse faster and less expensively than previous methods. In addition, the rapid progress in the development and use of somatic transgenesis using viral vectors, as well as manipulations of gene expression with siRNAs and antisense oligonucleotides, allow for even greater exploration into genomics and systems biology. These technological advances come at a time when cost reductions in genome sequencing have led to the identification of pathogenic mutations in patient populations, providing unprecedented opportunities in the use of mice to model human disease. The ease of genetic engineering in mice also offers a potential paradigm shift in resource sharing and the speed by which models are made available in the public domain. Predictively, the knowledge alone that a model can be quickly remade will provide relief to resources encumbered by licensing and Material Transfer Agreements. For decades, mouse strains have provided an exquisite experimental tool to study the pathophysiology of the disease and assess therapeutic options in a genetically defined system. However, a major limitation of the mouse has been the limited genetic diversity associated with common laboratory mice. This has been overcome with the recent development of the Collaborative Cross and Diversity Outbred mice. These strains provide new tools capable of replicating genetic diversity to that approaching the diversity found in human populations. The Collaborative Cross and Diversity Outbred strains thus provide a means to observe and characterize toxicity or efficacy of new therapeutic drugs for a given population. The combination of traditional and contemporary mouse genome editing tools, along with the addition of genetic diversity in new modeling

  6. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  7. Modeling as a tool for process control: alcoholic fermentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tayeb, A M; Ashour, I A; Mostafa, N A [El-Minia Univ. (EG). Faculty of Engineering

    1991-01-01

    The results of the alcoholic fermentation of beet sugar molasses and wheat milling residues (Akalona) were fed into a computer program. Consequently, the kinetic parameters for these fermentation reactions were determined. These parameters were put into a kinetic model. Next, the model was tested, and the results obtained were compared with the experimental results of both beet molasses and Akalona. The deviation of the experimental results from the results obtained from the model was determined. An acceptable deviation of 1.2% for beet sugar molasses and 3.69% for Akalona was obtained. Thus, the present model could be a tool for chemical engineers working in fermentation processes both with respect to the control of the process and the design of the fermentor. (Author).

  8. Logic flowgraph methodology - A tool for modeling embedded systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthukumar, C. T.; Guarro, S. B.; Apostolakis, G. E.

    1991-01-01

    The logic flowgraph methodology (LFM), a method for modeling hardware in terms of its process parameters, has been extended to form an analytical tool for the analysis of integrated (hardware/software) embedded systems. In the software part of a given embedded system model, timing and the control flow among different software components are modeled by augmenting LFM with modified Petrinet structures. The objective of the use of such an augmented LFM model is to uncover possible errors and the potential for unanticipated software/hardware interactions. This is done by backtracking through the augmented LFM mode according to established procedures which allow the semiautomated construction of fault trees for any chosen state of the embedded system (top event). These fault trees, in turn, produce the possible combinations of lower-level states (events) that may lead to the top event.

  9. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  10. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  11. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

  12. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  13. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  14. Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dowson Chris

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html.

  15. A general consumer-resource population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  16. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  17. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  18. Energy life-cycle analysis modeling and decision support tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoza, M.; White, M.E.

    1993-06-01

    As one of DOE`s five multi-program national laboratories, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) develops and deploys technology for national missions in energy and the environment. The Energy Information Systems Group, within the Laboratory`s Computer Sciences Department, focuses on the development of the computational and data communications infrastructure and automated tools for the Transmission and Distribution energy sector and for advanced process engineering applications. The energy industry is being forced to operate in new ways and under new constraints. It is in a reactive mode, reacting to policies and politics, and to economics and environmental pressures. The transmission and distribution sectors are being forced to find new ways to maximize the use of their existing infrastructure, increase energy efficiency, and minimize environmental impacts, while continuing to meet the demands of an ever increasing population. The creation of a sustainable energy future will be a challenge for both the soft and hard sciences. It will require that we as creators of our future be bold in the way we think about our energy future and aggressive in its development. The development of tools to help bring about a sustainable future will not be simple either. The development of ELCAM, for example, represents a stretch for the computational sciences as well as for each of the domain sciences such as economics, which will have to be team members.

  19. Analysis of Sequence Diagram Layout in Advanced UML Modelling Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ņikiforova Oksana

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available System modelling using Unified Modelling Language (UML is the task that should be solved for software development. The more complex software becomes the higher requirements are stated to demonstrate the system to be developed, especially in its dynamic aspect, which in UML is offered by a sequence diagram. To solve this task, the main attention is devoted to the graphical presentation of the system, where diagram layout plays the central role in information perception. The UML sequence diagram due to its specific structure is selected for a deeper analysis on the elements’ layout. The authors research represents the abilities of modern UML modelling tools to offer automatic layout of the UML sequence diagram and analyse them according to criteria required for the diagram perception.

  20. MODERN TOOLS FOR MODELING ACTIVITY IT-COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Марина Петрівна ЧАЙКОВСЬКА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing competition in the market of the web-based applications increases the importance of the quality of services and optimization of processes of interaction with customers. The purpose of the article is to develop recommendations for improving the business processes of IT enterprises of web application segment based on technological tools for business modeling, shaping requirements for the development of an information system for customer interaction; analysis of the effective means of implementation and evaluation of the economic effects of the introduction. A scheme of the business process development and launch of the website was built, based on the analysis of business process models and “swim lane” models, requirements for IP customer relationship management for web studio were established. Market of software to create IP was analyzed, and the ones corresponding to the requirements were selected. IP system was developed and tested, implemented it in the company, an appraisal of the economic effect was conducted.

  1. Tools and Methods for RTCP-Nets Modeling and Verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szpyrka Marcin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available RTCP-nets are high level Petri nets similar to timed colored Petri nets, but with different time model and some structural restrictions. The paper deals with practical aspects of using RTCP-nets for modeling and verification of real-time systems. It contains a survey of software tools developed to support RTCP-nets. Verification of RTCP-nets is based on coverability graphs which represent the set of reachable states in the form of directed graph. Two approaches to verification of RTCP-nets are considered in the paper. The former one is oriented towards states and is based on translation of a coverability graph into nuXmv (NuSMV finite state model. The later approach is oriented towards transitions and uses the CADP toolkit to check whether requirements given as μ-calculus formulae hold for a given coverability graph. All presented concepts are discussed using illustrative examples

  2. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul

    , connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control......This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built...

  3. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  4. Novel 3D Approach to Flare Modeling via Interactive IDL Widget Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nita, G. M.; Fleishman, G. D.; Gary, D. E.; Kuznetsov, A.; Kontar, E. P.

    2011-12-01

    Currently, and soon-to-be, available sophisticated 3D models of particle acceleration and transport in solar flares require a new level of user-friendly visualization and analysis tools allowing quick and easy adjustment of the model parameters and computation of realistic radiation patterns (images, spectra, polarization, etc). We report the current state of the art of these tools in development, already proved to be highly efficient for the direct flare modeling. We present an interactive IDL widget application intended to provide a flexible tool that allows the user to generate spatially resolved radio and X-ray spectra. The object-based architecture of this application provides full interaction with imported 3D magnetic field models (e.g., from an extrapolation) that may be embedded in a global coronal model. Various tools provided allow users to explore the magnetic connectivity of the model by generating magnetic field lines originating in user-specified volume positions. Such lines may serve as reference lines for creating magnetic flux tubes, which are further populated with user-defined analytical thermal/non thermal particle distribution models. By default, the application integrates IDL callable DLL and Shared libraries containing fast GS emission codes developed in FORTRAN and C++ and soft and hard X-ray codes developed in IDL. However, the interactive interface allows interchanging these default libraries with any user-defined IDL or external callable codes designed to solve the radiation transfer equation in the same or other wavelength ranges of interest. To illustrate the tool capacity and generality, we present a step-by-step real-time computation of microwave and X-ray images from realistic magnetic structures obtained from a magnetic field extrapolation preceding a real event, and compare them with the actual imaging data obtained by NORH and RHESSI instruments. We discuss further anticipated developments of the tools needed to accommodate

  5. Mathematical modeling of physiological systems: an essential tool for discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Patric; Unudurthi, Sathya D; Hund, Thomas J

    2014-08-28

    Mathematical models are invaluable tools for understanding the relationships between components of a complex system. In the biological context, mathematical models help us understand the complex web of interrelations between various components (DNA, proteins, enzymes, signaling molecules etc.) in a biological system, gain better understanding of the system as a whole, and in turn predict its behavior in an altered state (e.g. disease). Mathematical modeling has enhanced our understanding of multiple complex biological processes like enzyme kinetics, metabolic networks, signal transduction pathways, gene regulatory networks, and electrophysiology. With recent advances in high throughput data generation methods, computational techniques and mathematical modeling have become even more central to the study of biological systems. In this review, we provide a brief history and highlight some of the important applications of modeling in biological systems with an emphasis on the study of excitable cells. We conclude with a discussion about opportunities and challenges for mathematical modeling going forward. In a larger sense, the review is designed to help answer a simple but important question that theoreticians frequently face from interested but skeptical colleagues on the experimental side: "What is the value of a model?" Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Materials modelling - a possible design tool for advanced nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffelner, W.; Samaras, M.; Bako, B.; Iglesias, R.

    2008-01-01

    The design of components for power plants is usually based on codes, standards and design rules or code cases. However, it is very difficult to get the necessary experimental data to prove these lifetime assessment procedures for long-term applications in environments where complex damage interactions (temperature, stress, environment, irradiation) can occur. The rules used are often very simple and do not have a basis which take physical damage into consideration. The linear life fraction rule for creep and fatigue interaction can be taken as a prominent example. Materials modelling based on a multi-scale approach in principle provides a tool to convert microstructural findings into mechanical response and therefore has the capability of providing a set of tools for the improvement of design life assessments. The strength of current multi-scale modelling efforts is the insight they offer as regards experimental phenomena. To obtain an understanding of these phenomena it is import to focus on issues which are important at the various time and length scales of the modelling code. In this presentation the multi-scale path will be demonstrated with a few recent examples which focus on VHTR applications. (authors)

  7. Integrated modeling tool for performance engineering of complex computer systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Gary; Ball, Duane; Hoyt, Susan; Steele, Oscar

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes Advanced System Technologies' accomplishments on the Phase 2 SBIR contract NAS7-995. The technical objectives of the report are: (1) to develop an evaluation version of a graphical, integrated modeling language according to the specification resulting from the Phase 2 research; and (2) to determine the degree to which the language meets its objectives by evaluating ease of use, utility of two sets of performance predictions, and the power of the language constructs. The technical approach followed to meet these objectives was to design, develop, and test an evaluation prototype of a graphical, performance prediction tool. The utility of the prototype was then evaluated by applying it to a variety of test cases found in the literature and in AST case histories. Numerous models were constructed and successfully tested. The major conclusion of this Phase 2 SBIR research and development effort is that complex, real-time computer systems can be specified in a non-procedural manner using combinations of icons, windows, menus, and dialogs. Such a specification technique provides an interface that system designers and architects find natural and easy to use. In addition, PEDESTAL's multiview approach provides system engineers with the capability to perform the trade-offs necessary to produce a design that meets timing performance requirements. Sample system designs analyzed during the development effort showed that models could be constructed in a fraction of the time required by non-visual system design capture tools.

  8. Performance Analysis, Modeling and Scaling of HPC Applications and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatele, Abhinav [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-01-13

    E cient use of supercomputers at DOE centers is vital for maximizing system throughput, mini- mizing energy costs and enabling science breakthroughs faster. This requires complementary e orts along several directions to optimize the performance of scienti c simulation codes and the under- lying runtimes and software stacks. This in turn requires providing scalable performance analysis tools and modeling techniques that can provide feedback to physicists and computer scientists developing the simulation codes and runtimes respectively. The PAMS project is using time allocations on supercomputers at ALCF, NERSC and OLCF to further the goals described above by performing research along the following fronts: 1. Scaling Study of HPC applications; 2. Evaluation of Programming Models; 3. Hardening of Performance Tools; 4. Performance Modeling of Irregular Codes; and 5. Statistical Analysis of Historical Performance Data. We are a team of computer and computational scientists funded by both DOE/NNSA and DOE/ ASCR programs such as ECRP, XStack (Traleika Glacier, PIPER), ExaOSR (ARGO), SDMAV II (MONA) and PSAAP II (XPACC). This allocation will enable us to study big data issues when analyzing performance on leadership computing class systems and to assist the HPC community in making the most e ective use of these resources.

  9. Modeling energy technology choices. Which investment analysis tools are appropriate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.E.

    1994-01-01

    A variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods. This paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent ''energy technology investment paradox''. The applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems, such as sunk costs, uncertainty and imperfect information. The theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, and the theory of irreversible investment. Enhanced net present value methods are also considered. (author)

  10. Evaluation and comparison of models and modelling tools simulating nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edelfeldt, Stina; Fritzson, Peter

    2008-01-01

    with Modelica 2.1 (Wiley-IEEE Press, USA, 2004).] and an associated tool. The differences and similarities between the MathModelica Model Editor and three other ecological modelling tools have also been evaluated. The results show that the models can well be modelled and simulated in the MathModelica Model...... Editor, and that nitrogen decrease in a constructed treatment wetland should be described and simulated using the Nitrification/Denitrification model as this model has the highest overall quality score and provides a more variable environment.......In this paper, two ecological models of nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands have been evaluated and compared. These models were implemented, simulated, and visualized using the Modelica modelling and simulation language [P. Fritzson, Principles of Object-Oriented Modelling and Simulation...

  11. Lagrangian Flow Network: a new tool to evaluate connectivity and understand the structural complexity of marine populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, V.; Dubois, M.; Ser-Giacomi, E.; Monroy, P.; Lopez, C.; Hernandez-Garcia, E.

    2016-02-01

    Assessing the spatial structure and dynamics of marine populations is still a major challenge for ecologists. The necessity to manage marine resources from a large-scale perspective and considering the whole ecosystem is now recognized but the absence of appropriate tools to address these objectives limits the implementation of globally pertinent conservation planning. Inspired from Network Theory, we present a new methodological framework called Lagrangian Flow Network which allows a systematic characterization of multi-scale dispersal and connectivity of early life history stages of marine organisms. The network is constructed by subdividing the basin into an ensemble of equal-area subregions which are interconnected through the transport of propagules by ocean currents. The present version allows the identification of hydrodynamical provinces and the computation of various connectivity proxies measuring retention and exchange of larvae. Due to our spatial discretization and subsequent network representation, as well as our Lagrangian approach, further methodological improvements are handily accessible. These future developments include a parametrization of habitat patchiness, the implementation of realistic larval traits and the consideration of abiotic variables (e.g. temperature, salinity, planktonic resources...) and their effects on larval production and survival. While the model is potentially tunable to any species whose biological traits and ecological preferences are precisely known, it can also be used in a more generic configuration by efficient computing and analysis of a large number of experiments with relevant ecological parameters. It permits a better characterization of population connectivity at multiple scales and it informs its ecological and managerial interpretations.

  12. Conceptual Models as Tools for Communication Across Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke Heemskerk

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available To better understand and manage complex social-ecological systems, social scientists and ecologists must collaborate. However, issues related to language and research approaches can make it hard for researchers in different fields to work together. This paper suggests that researchers can improve interdisciplinary science through the use of conceptual models as a communication tool. The authors share lessons from a workshop in which interdisciplinary teams of young scientists developed conceptual models of social-ecological systems using data sets and metadata from Long-Term Ecological Research sites across the United States. Both the process of model building and the models that were created are discussed. The exercise revealed that the presence of social scientists in a group influenced the place and role of people in the models. This finding suggests that the participation of both ecologists and social scientists in the early stages of project development may produce better questions and more accurate models of interactions between humans and ecosystems. Although the participants agreed that a better understanding of human intentions and behavior would advance ecosystem science, they felt that interdisciplinary research might gain more by training strong disciplinarians than by merging ecology and social sciences into a new field. It is concluded that conceptual models can provide an inspiring point of departure and a guiding principle for interdisciplinary group discussions. Jointly developing a model not only helped the participants to formulate questions, clarify system boundaries, and identify gaps in existing data, but also revealed the thoughts and assumptions of fellow scientists. Although the use of conceptual models will not serve all purposes, the process of model building can help scientists, policy makers, and resource managers discuss applied problems and theory among themselves and with those in other areas.

  13. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  14. System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jere Jakulin Tadeja

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

  15. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  16. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  17. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

  18. Population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornøe, Christoffer Wenzel

    2005-01-01

    model mis-specification feasible by quantifying the model uncertainty, which subsequently provides the basis for systematic population PK/PD model development. To support the model building process, the SDE approach was applied to clinical PK/PD data and used as a tool for tracking unexplained...... was stimulated and inhibited by the plasma triptorelin and degarelix concentrations, respec-tively. Circulating LH stimulated the testosterone secretion while the delayed testosterone feedback on the non-basal LH synthesis and release was modelled through a receptor compartment where testosterone stimulates...

  19. Introducing Modeling Transition Diagrams as a Tool to Connect Mathematical Modeling to Mathematical Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czocher, Jennifer A.

    2016-01-01

    This study contributes a methodological tool to reconstruct the cognitive processes and mathematical activities carried out by mathematical modelers. Represented as Modeling Transition Diagrams (MTDs), individual modeling routes were constructed for four engineering undergraduate students. Findings stress the importance and limitations of using…

  20. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  1. 3D-Printed Craniosynostosis Model: New Simulation Surgical Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghizoni, Enrico; de Souza, João Paulo Sant Ana Santos; Raposo-Amaral, Cassio Eduardo; Denadai, Rafael; de Aquino, Humberto Belém; Raposo-Amaral, Cesar Augusto; Joaquim, Andrei Fernandes; Tedeschi, Helder; Bernardes, Luís Fernando; Jardini, André Luiz

    2018-01-01

    Craniosynostosis is a complex disease once it involves deep anatomic perception, and a minor mistake during surgery can be fatal. The objective of this report is to present novel 3-dimensional-printed polyamide craniosynostosis models that can improve the understanding and treatment complex pathologies. The software InVesalius was used for segmentation of the anatomy image (from 3 patients between 6 and 9 months old). Afterward, the file was transferred to a 3-dimensional printing system and, with the use of an infrared laser, slices of powder PA 2200 were consecutively added to build a polyamide model of cranial bone. The 3 craniosynostosis models allowed fronto-orbital advancement, Pi procedure, and posterior distraction in the operating room environment. All aspects of the craniofacial anatomy could be shown on the models, as well as the most common craniosynostosis pathologic variations (sphenoid wing elevation, shallow orbits, jugular foramen stenosis). Another advantage of our model is its low cost, about 100 U.S. dollars or even less when several models are produced. Simulation is becoming an essential part of medical education for surgical training and for improving surgical safety with adequate planning. This new polyamide craniosynostosis model allowed the surgeons to have realistic tactile feedback on manipulating a child's bone and permitted execution of the main procedures for anatomic correction. It is a low-cost model. Therefore our model is an excellent option for training purposes and is potentially a new important tool to improve the quality of the management of patients with craniosynostosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  3. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  4. Analysis of Cryogenic Cycle with Process Modeling Tool: Aspen HYSYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, D. M.; Patel, H. K.

    2015-10-01

    Cryogenic engineering deals with the development and improvement of low temperature techniques, processes and equipment. A process simulator such as Aspen HYSYS, for the design, analysis, and optimization of process plants, has features that accommodate the special requirements and therefore can be used to simulate most cryogenic liquefaction and refrigeration processes. Liquefaction is the process of cooling or refrigerating a gas to a temperature below its critical temperature so that liquid can be formed at some suitable pressure which is below the critical pressure. Cryogenic processes require special attention in terms of the integration of various components like heat exchangers, Joule-Thompson Valve, Turbo expander and Compressor. Here, Aspen HYSYS, a process modeling tool, is used to understand the behavior of the complete plant. This paper presents the analysis of an air liquefaction plant based on the Linde cryogenic cycle, performed using the Aspen HYSYS process modeling tool. It covers the technique used to find the optimum values for getting the maximum liquefaction of the plant considering different constraints of other parameters. The analysis result so obtained gives clear idea in deciding various parameter values before implementation of the actual plant in the field. It also gives an idea about the productivity and profitability of the given configuration plant which leads to the design of an efficient productive plant.

  5. Analysis of Cryogenic Cycle with Process Modeling Tool: Aspen HYSYS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joshi, D.M.; Patel, H.K.

    2015-01-01

    Cryogenic engineering deals with the development and improvement of low temperature techniques, processes and equipment. A process simulator such as Aspen HYSYS, for the design, analysis, and optimization of process plants, has features that accommodate the special requirements and therefore can be used to simulate most cryogenic liquefaction and refrigeration processes. Liquefaction is the process of cooling or refrigerating a gas to a temperature below its critical temperature so that liquid can be formed at some suitable pressure which is below the critical pressure. Cryogenic processes require special attention in terms of the integration of various components like heat exchangers, Joule-Thompson Valve, Turbo expander and Compressor. Here, Aspen HYSYS, a process modeling tool, is used to understand the behavior of the complete plant. This paper presents the analysis of an air liquefaction plant based on the Linde cryogenic cycle, performed using the Aspen HYSYS process modeling tool. It covers the technique used to find the optimum values for getting the maximum liquefaction of the plant considering different constraints of other parameters. The analysis result so obtained gives clear idea in deciding various parameter values before implementation of the actual plant in the field. It also gives an idea about the productivity and profitability of the given configuration plant which leads to the design of an efficient productive plant

  6. Transposons As Tools for Functional Genomics in Vertebrate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakami, Koichi; Largaespada, David A; Ivics, Zoltán

    2017-11-01

    Genetic tools and mutagenesis strategies based on transposable elements are currently under development with a vision to link primary DNA sequence information to gene functions in vertebrate models. By virtue of their inherent capacity to insert into DNA, transposons can be developed into powerful tools for chromosomal manipulations. Transposon-based forward mutagenesis screens have numerous advantages including high throughput, easy identification of mutated alleles, and providing insight into genetic networks and pathways based on phenotypes. For example, the Sleeping Beauty transposon has become highly instrumental to induce tumors in experimental animals in a tissue-specific manner with the aim of uncovering the genetic basis of diverse cancers. Here, we describe a battery of mutagenic cassettes that can be applied in conjunction with transposon vectors to mutagenize genes, and highlight versatile experimental strategies for the generation of engineered chromosomes for loss-of-function as well as gain-of-function mutagenesis for functional gene annotation in vertebrate models, including zebrafish, mice, and rats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

  8. Development of tools and models for computational fracture assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talja, H.; Santaoja, K.

    1998-01-01

    The aim of the work presented in this paper has been to develop and test new computational tools and theoretically more sound methods for fracture mechanical analysis. The applicability of the engineering integrity assessment system MASI for evaluation of piping components has been extended. The most important motivation for the theoretical development have been the well-known fundamental limitations in the validity of J-integral, which limits its applicability in many important practical safety assessment cases. Examples are extensive plastic deformation, multimaterial structures and ascending loading paths (especially warm prestress, WPS). Further, the micromechanical Gurson model has been applied to several reactor pressure vessel materials. Special attention is paid to the transferability of Gurson model parameters from tensile test results to prediction of ductile failure behaviour of cracked structures. (author)

  9. Edge effect modeling of small tool polishing in planetary movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi-xin; Ma, Zhen; Jiang, Bo; Yao, Yong-sheng

    2018-03-01

    As one of the most challenging problems in Computer Controlled Optical Surfacing (CCOS), the edge effect greatly affects the polishing accuracy and efficiency. CCOS rely on stable tool influence function (TIF), however, at the edge of the mirror surface,with the grinding head out of the mirror ,the contact area and pressure distribution changes, which resulting in a non-linear change of TIF, and leads to tilting or sagging at the edge of the mirror. In order reduce the adverse effects and improve the polishing accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we used the finite element simulation to analyze the pressure distribution at the mirror edge and combined with the improved traditional method to establish a new model. The new method fully considered the non-uniformity of pressure distribution. After modeling the TIFs in different locations, the description and prediction of the edge effects are realized, which has a positive significance on the control and suppression of edge effects

  10. MTK: An AI tool for model-based reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, William K.; Schwartz, Mary R.

    1987-01-01

    A 1988 goal for the Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project Office of the NASA Ames Research Center is to apply model-based representation and reasoning techniques in a knowledge-based system that will provide monitoring, fault diagnosis, control and trend analysis of the space station Thermal Management System (TMS). A number of issues raised during the development of the first prototype system inspired the design and construction of a model-based reasoning tool called MTK, which was used in the building of the second prototype. These issues are outlined, along with examples from the thermal system to highlight the motivating factors behind them. An overview of the capabilities of MTK is given.

  11. Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

  12. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  13. Port performance evaluation tool based on microsimulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsavalista Burhani Jzolanda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As port performance is becoming correlative to national competitiveness, the issue of port performance evaluation has significantly raised. Port performances can simply be indicated by port service levels to the ship (e.g., throughput, waiting for berthing etc., as well as the utilization level of equipment and facilities within a certain period. The performances evaluation then can be used as a tool to develop related policies for improving the port’s performance to be more effective and efficient. However, the evaluation is frequently conducted based on deterministic approach, which hardly captures the nature variations of port parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a stochastic microsimulation model for investigating the impacts of port parameter variations to the port performances. The variations are derived from actual data in order to provide more realistic results. The model is further developed using MATLAB and Simulink based on the queuing theory.

  14. Habitat hydraulic models - a tool for Danish stream quality assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    and hydromorphological and chemical characteristics has to be enlightened (EUROPA, 2005). This study links catchment hydrology, stream discharge and physical habitat in a small Danish stream, the stream Ledreborg, and discusses the utility of habitat hydraulic models in relation to the present criteria and methods used......).  Hydromorphological conditions in the stream are measured through field study, using a habitat mapping approach and modelled using a habitat hydraulic model (RHYHABSIM). Using RHYHABSIM and both "site-specific" and general HSI's, Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for the trout population at different discharges is assessed...... and differences between simulated WUA using "site-specific" and general habitat preferences are discussed. In RHYHABSIM it is possible to use two different approaches to investigate the hydromorphological conditions in a river, the habitat mapping approach used in this project and the representative reach...

  15. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  16. MODEL CAR TRANSPORT SYSTEM - MODERN ITS EDUCATION TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Bouchner

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The model car transport system is a laboratory intended for a practical development in the area of the motor traffic. It is also an important education tool for students’ hands-on training, enabling students to test the results of their own studies. The main part of the model car transportation network is a model in a ratio 1:87 (HO, based on component units of FALLER Car system, e.g. cars, traffic lights, carriage way, parking spaces, stop sections, branch-off junctions, sensors and control sections. The model enables to simulate real traffic situations. It includes a motor traffic in a city, in a small village, on a carriageway between a city and a village including a railway crossing. The traffic infrastructure includes different kinds of intersections, such as T-junctions, a classic four-way crossroad and four-way traffic circle, with and without traffic lights control. Another important part of the model is a segment of a highway which includes an elevated crossing with highway approaches and exits.

  17. ASSESSMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF APPLICATION OF TOOLS OF CARRYING OUT THE ALL-RUSSIAN POPULATION CENSUS OF 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg V. Manzhula

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available At a stage of preparation for the All-Russian population census of 2020 it is necessary to develop methodical and technological support of processes of carrying out census for increase of reliability of data collection and quality of information processing of population census of the Russian Federation with use of modern information and communication technologies, and also a technique of an assessment of efficiency of application of tools of carrying out census

  18. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  19. Toward a Better Understanding of Population Genetics: Pop!World--A Virtual, Inquiry-Based Tool for Teaching Population Genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Jessica; Ramamurthy, Bina; Dittmar, Katharina

    2013-01-01

    Population genetics is fundamental to understanding evolutionary theory, and is taught in most introductory biology/evolution courses. Many students are unaware that understanding this topic requires pertinent knowledge

  20. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    environmental conditions. Three cases are presented and discussed in this thesis. Common to all is the use of S. cerevisiae as model organism, and the use of cell size and cell cycle position as single-cell descriptors. The first case focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of a yeast...

  1. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  2. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  3. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  4. Malnutrition risk in hospitalized children : use of 3 screening tools in a large European population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chourdakis, Michael; Hecht, Christina; Gerasimidis, Konstantinos; Joosten, Koen F. M.; Karagiozoglou-Lainpoudi, Thomais; Koetse, Harma A.; Ksiazyk, Janusz; Lazea, Cecilia; Shamir, Raanan; Szajewska, Hania; Koletzko, Berthold; Hulst, Jessie M.

    Background: Several malnutrition screening tools have been advocated for use in pediatric inpatients. Objective: We evaluated how 3 popular pediatric nutrition screening tools [i.e., the Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), the Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics

  5. Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

    2007-01-01

    Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

  6. An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

  7. Watershed modeling tools and data for prognostic and diagnostic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambel-Leitao, P.; Brito, D.; Neves, R.

    2009-04-01

    When eutrophication is considered an important process to control it can be accomplished reducing nitrogen and phosphorus losses from both point and nonpoint sources and helping to assess the effectiveness of the pollution reduction strategy. HARP-NUT guidelines (Guidelines on Harmonized Quantification and Reporting Procedures for Nutrients) (Borgvang & Selvik, 2000) are presented by OSPAR as the best common quantification and reporting procedures for calculating the reduction of nutrient inputs. In 2000, OSPAR HARP-NUT guidelines on a trial basis. They were intended to serve as a tool for OSPAR Contracting Parties to report, in a harmonized manner, their different commitments, present or future, with regard to nutrients under the OSPAR Convention, in particular the "Strategy to Combat Eutrophication". HARP-NUT Guidelines (Borgvang and Selvik, 2000; Schoumans, 2003) were developed to quantify and report on the individual sources of nitrogen and phosphorus discharges/losses to surface waters (Source Orientated Approach). These results can be compared to nitrogen and phosphorus figures with the total riverine loads measured at downstream monitoring points (Load Orientated Approach), as load reconciliation. Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in river systems represents the connecting link between the "Source Orientated Approach" and the "Load Orientated Approach". Both approaches are necessary for verification purposes and both may be needed for providing the information required for the various commitments. Guidelines 2,3,4,5 are mainly concerned with the sources estimation. They present a set of simple calculations that allow the estimation of the origin of loads. Guideline 6 is a particular case where the application of a model is advised, in order to estimate the sources of nutrients from diffuse sources associated with land use/land cover. The model chosen for this was SWAT (Arnold & Fohrer, 2005) model because it is suggested in the guideline 6 and because it

  8. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    pattern, giving one or more new cycles. To model an event made up of several cycles extending into the future calls for an estimate of the ultimate value, which corresponds with the area under the curve up to the end of the event. For oil, the best tool to determine an ultimate value is the creaming curve that plots cumulative discovery versus the cumulative number of new field wildcats, the result being modelled by one or more hyperbolas. Another method is to plot the ratio of annual to cumulative production versus cumulative production, and extrapolate the trend to zero. When the trend is linear, it represents the derivative of the logistic curve. The fractal distribution of sizes (field reserves, incomes, urban agglomerations plotted against decreasing rank) can also be extrapolated to an ultimate value. Population can be well modelled with two cycles, distinguishing countries with high and low fertility rates. Previous UN forecasts were too high for different reasons. Economic parameters, such as unemployment or inflation, can be correlated with oil price after a certain time-shift. Income distribution is well described by a fractal plot of population versus income. The income fractal distribution in France is in fact the same as that in the United States, although the total of the latter is higher because of a larger population. Many graphs are shown for each domain using the same tools. The goal is that the reader may be able to draw his own conclusions, and make his own forecast. Ironically, it appears that the modelling is more reliable than the input data. Accordingly, the main challenge is to secure better data, but that will be achieved only if and when political influences can be removed. A neutral agency is needed, but neither the UN nor national agencies are neutral. It is hard to see how to force the actors to tell the truth, or know who would run and finance such an organisation. A step in the right direction would be to make official organisations liable

  9. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    cycles. To model an event made up of several cycles extending into the future calls for an estimate of the ultimate value, which corresponds with the area under the curve up to the end of the event. For oil, the best tool to determine an ultimate value is the creaming curve that plots cumulative discovery versus the cumulative number of new field wildcats, the result being modelled by one or more hyperbolas. Another method is to plot the ratio of annual to cumulative production versus cumulative production, and extrapolate the trend to zero. When the trend is linear, it represents the derivative of the logistic curve. The fractal distribution of sizes (field reserves, incomes, urban agglomerations plotted against decreasing rank) can also be extrapolated to an ultimate value. Population can be well modelled with two cycles, distinguishing countries with high and low fertility rates. Previous UN forecasts were too high for different reasons. Economic parameters, such as unemployment or inflation, can be correlated with oil price after a certain time-shift. Income distribution is well described by a fractal plot of population versus income. The income fractal distribution in France is in fact the same as that in the United States, although the total of the latter is higher because of a larger population. Many graphs are shown for each domain using the same tools. The goal is that the reader may be able to draw his own conclusions, and make his own forecast. Ironically, it appears that the modelling is more reliable than the input data. Accordingly, the main challenge is to secure better data, but that will be achieved only if and when political influences can be removed. A neutral agency is needed, but neither the UN nor national agencies are neutral. It is hard to see how to force the actors to tell the truth, or know who would run and finance such an organisation. A step in the right direction would be to make official organisations liable to prosecution for releasing

  10. A Model-Driven Visualization Tool for Use with Model-Based Systems Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trase, Kathryn; Fink, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) promotes increased consistency between a system's design and its design documentation through the use of an object-oriented system model. The creation of this system model facilitates data presentation by providing a mechanism from which information can be extracted by automated manipulation of model content. Existing MBSE tools enable model creation, but are often too complex for the unfamiliar model viewer to easily use. These tools do not yet provide many opportunities for easing into the development and use of a system model when system design documentation already exists. This study creates a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) Document Traceability Framework (SDTF) for integrating design documentation with a system model, and develops an Interactive Visualization Engine for SysML Tools (InVEST), that exports consistent, clear, and concise views of SysML model data. These exported views are each meaningful to a variety of project stakeholders with differing subjects of concern and depth of technical involvement. InVEST allows a model user to generate multiple views and reports from a MBSE model, including wiki pages and interactive visualizations of data. System data can also be filtered to present only the information relevant to the particular stakeholder, resulting in a view that is both consistent with the larger system model and other model views. Viewing the relationships between system artifacts and documentation, and filtering through data to see specialized views improves the value of the system as a whole, as data becomes information

  11. Slab2 - Updated Subduction Zone Geometries and Modeling Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, G.; Hayes, G. P.; Portner, D. E.; Furtney, M.; Flamme, H. E.; Hearne, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey database of global subduction zone geometries (Slab1.0), is a highly utilized dataset that has been applied to a wide range of geophysical problems. In 2017, these models have been improved and expanded upon as part of the Slab2 modeling effort. With a new data driven approach that can be applied to a broader range of tectonic settings and geophysical data sets, we have generated a model set that will serve as a more comprehensive, reliable, and reproducible resource for three-dimensional slab geometries at all of the world's convergent margins. The newly developed framework of Slab2 is guided by: (1) a large integrated dataset, consisting of a variety of geophysical sources (e.g., earthquake hypocenters, moment tensors, active-source seismic survey images of the shallow slab, tomography models, receiver functions, bathymetry, trench ages, and sediment thickness information); (2) a dynamic filtering scheme aimed at constraining incorporated seismicity to only slab related events; (3) a 3-D data interpolation approach which captures both high resolution shallow geometries and instances of slab rollback and overlap at depth; and (4) an algorithm which incorporates uncertainties of contributing datasets to identify the most probable surface depth over the extent of each subduction zone. Further layers will also be added to the base geometry dataset, such as historic moment release, earthquake tectonic providence, and interface coupling. Along with access to several queryable data formats, all components have been wrapped into an open source library in Python, such that suites of updated models can be released as further data becomes available. This presentation will discuss the extent of Slab2 development, as well as the current availability of the model and modeling tools.

  12. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  13. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  14. Unleashing spatially distributed ecohydrology modeling using Big Data tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, B.; Idaszak, R.

    2015-12-01

    Physically based spatially distributed ecohydrology models are useful for answering science and management questions related to the hydrology and biogeochemistry of prairie, savanna, forested, as well as urbanized ecosystems. However, these models can produce hundreds of gigabytes of spatial output for a single model run over decadal time scales when run at regional spatial scales and moderate spatial resolutions (~100-km2+ at 30-m spatial resolution) or when run for small watersheds at high spatial resolutions (~1-km2 at 3-m spatial resolution). Numerical data formats such as HDF5 can store arbitrarily large datasets. However even in HPC environments, there are practical limits on the size of single files that can be stored and reliably backed up. Even when such large datasets can be stored, querying and analyzing these data can suffer from poor performance due to memory limitations and I/O bottlenecks, for example on single workstations where memory and bandwidth are limited, or in HPC environments where data are stored separately from computational nodes. The difficulty of storing and analyzing spatial data from ecohydrology models limits our ability to harness these powerful tools. Big Data tools such as distributed databases have the potential to surmount the data storage and analysis challenges inherent to large spatial datasets. Distributed databases solve these problems by storing data close to computational nodes while enabling horizontal scalability and fault tolerance. Here we present the architecture of and preliminary results from PatchDB, a distributed datastore for managing spatial output from the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The initial version of PatchDB uses message queueing to asynchronously write RHESSys model output to an Apache Cassandra cluster. Once stored in the cluster, these data can be efficiently queried to quickly produce both spatial visualizations for a particular variable (e.g. maps and animations), as well

  15. Population persistence of stream fish in response to environmental change: integrating data and models across space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, B. H.; Schueller, P.; Bassar, R.; Coombs, J.; Rosner, A.; Sakrejda, K.; Kanno, Y.; Whiteley, A.; Nislow, K. H.

    2013-12-01

    For stream fishes, environmental variation is a key driver of individual body growth/movement/survival and, by extension, population dynamics. Identifying how stream fish respond to environmental variation can help clarify mechanisms responsible for population dynamics and can help provide tools to forecast relative resilience of populations across space. Forecasting dynamics across space is challenging, however, because it can be difficult to conduct enough studies with enough intensity to fully characterize broad-scale population response to environmental change. We have adopted a multi-scale approach, using detailed individual-based studies and analyses (integral projection matrix) to determine sensitivities of population growth to environmental variation combined with broad spatial data and analyses (occupancy and abundance models) to estimate patterns of population response across space. Population growth of brook trout was most sensitive to stream flow in the spring and winter, most sensitive to stream temperature in the fall and sensitive to both flow and temperature in the summer. High flow in the spring and winter had negative effects on population growth while high temperature had a negative effect in the fall. Flow had no effect when it was cold, but a positive effect when it was warm in the summer. Combined with occupancy and abundance models, these data give insight into the spatial structure of resilient populations and can help guide prioritization of management actions.

  16. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  17. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  18. A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Daniel B [ORNL; Payne, Patricia W [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools can quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.

  19. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  20. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  1. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  2. Validity and applicability of a video-based animated tool to assess mobility in elderly Latin American populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Oliveira, Bruna Silva; Alvarado, Beatriz Eugenia; Curcio, Carmen Lucia; Rejeski, W Jack; Marsh, Anthony P; Ip, Edward H; Barnard, Ryan T; Guralnik, Jack M; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

    2014-10-01

    To assess the reliability and the validity of Portuguese- and Spanish-translated versions of the video-based short-form Mobility Assessment Tool in assessing self-reported mobility, and to provide evidence for the applicability of these videos in elderly Latin American populations as a complement to physical performance measures. The sample consisted of 300 elderly participants (150 from Brazil, 150 from Colombia) recruited at neighborhood social centers. Mobility was assessed with the Mobility Assessment Tool, and compared with the Short Physical Performance Battery score and self-reported functional limitations. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess associations among mobility assessment tools and health, and sociodemographic variables. A significant gradient of increasing Mobility Assessment Tool score with better physical function was observed for both self-reported and objective measures, and in each city. Associations between self-reported mobility and health were strong, and significant. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in women at both sites. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the Mobility Assessment Tool were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97) in Brazil and 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.91) in Colombia. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in Manizales than in Natal after adjustment by Short Physical Performance Battery, self-rated health and sex. These results provide evidence for high reliability and good validity of the Mobility Assessment Tool in its Spanish and Portuguese versions used in Latin American populations. In addition, the Mobility Assessment Tool can detect mobility differences related to environmental features that cannot be captured by objective performance measures. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  3. ISSR-PCR: tool for discrimination and genetic structure analysis of Plutella xylostella populations native to different geographical areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roux, O; Gevrey, M; Arvanitakis, L; Gers, C; Bordat, D; Legal, L

    2007-04-01

    The diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) is considered as the most destructive pest of Brassicaceae crops world-wide. Its migratory capacities and development of insecticide resistance in many populations leads to more difficulties for population management. To control movement of populations and apparitions of resistance carried by resistant migrant individuals, populations must be identified using genetic markers. Here, seven different ISSR markers have been tested as a tool for population discrimination and genetic variations among 19 DBM populations from Canada, USA, Brazil, Martinique Island, France, Romania, Austria, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Benin, South Africa, Réunion Island, Hong Kong, Laos, Japan and four localities in Australia were assessed. Two classification methods were tested and compared: a common method of genetic distance analyses and a novel method based on an advanced statistical method of the Artificial Neural Networks' family, the Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The 188 loci selected revealed a very high variability between populations with a total polymorphism of 100% and a global coefficient of gene differentiation estimated by the Nei's index (Gst) of 0.238. Nevertheless, the largest part of variability was expressed among individuals within populations (AMOVA: 73.71% and mean polymorphism of 94% within populations). Genetic differentiation among the DBM populations did not reflect geographical distances between them. The two classification methods have given excellent results with less than 1.3% of misclassified individuals. The origin of the high genetic differentiation and efficiency of the two classification methods are discussed.

  4. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  5. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  6. Prototype of Automated PLC Model Checking Using Continuous Integration Tools

    CERN Document Server

    Lettrich, Michael

    2015-01-01

    To deal with the complexity of operating and supervising large scale industrial installations at CERN, often Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) are used. A failure in these control systems can cause a disaster in terms of economic loses, environmental damages or human losses. Therefore the requirements to software quality are very high. To provide PLC developers with a way to verify proper functionality against requirements, a Java tool named PLCverif has been developed which encapsulates and thus simplifies the use of third party model checkers. One of our goals in this project is to integrate PLCverif in development process of PLC programs. When the developer changes the program, all the requirements should be verified again, as a change on the code can produce collateral effects and violate one or more requirements. For that reason, PLCverif has been extended to work with Jenkins CI in order to trigger automatically the verication cases when the developer changes the PLC program. This prototype has been...

  7. A Relational Database Model and Tools for Environmental Sound Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuksel Arslan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental sound recognition (ESR has become a hot topic in recent years. ESR is mainly based on machine learning (ML and ML algorithms require first a training database. This database must comprise the sounds to be recognized and other related sounds. An ESR system needs the database during training, testing and in the production stage. In this paper, we present the design and pilot establishment of a database which will assists all researchers who want to establish an ESR system. This database employs relational database model which is not used for this task before. We explain in this paper design and implementation details of the database, data collection and load process. Besides we explain the tools and developed graphical user interface for a desktop application and for the WEB.

  8. Computational Tools To Model Halogen Bonds in Medicinal Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Melissa Coates; Ho, P Shing

    2016-03-10

    The use of halogens in therapeutics dates back to the earliest days of medicine when seaweed was used as a source of iodine to treat goiters. The incorporation of halogens to improve the potency of drugs is now fairly standard in medicinal chemistry. In the past decade, halogens have been recognized as direct participants in defining the affinity of inhibitors through a noncovalent interaction called the halogen bond or X-bond. Incorporating X-bonding into structure-based drug design requires computational models for the anisotropic distribution of charge and the nonspherical shape of halogens, which lead to their highly directional geometries and stabilizing energies. We review here current successes and challenges in developing computational methods to introduce X-bonding into lead compound discovery and optimization during drug development. This fast-growing field will push further development of more accurate and efficient computational tools to accelerate the exploitation of halogens in medicinal chemistry.

  9. Tool-chain for online modeling of the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, G.J.; Buffat, X.; Fuchsberger, K.; Giovannozzi, M.; Redaelli, S.; Schmidt, F.

    2012-01-01

    The control of high intensity beams in a high energy, superconducting machine with complex optics like the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is challenging not only from the design aspect but also for operation towards physics production. To support the LHC beam commissioning, efforts were devoted to the design and implementation of a software infrastructure aimed at using the computing power of the beam dynamics code MAD-X in the framework of the JAVA-based LHC control and measurement environment. Alongside interfaces to measurement data as well as to settings of the control system, the best knowledge of machine aperture and optic models is provided. In this paper, we will present the status of the tool chain and illustrate how it has been used during commissioning and operation of the LHC. Possible future implementations will be discussed. (authors)

  10. Standalone visualization tool for three-dimensional DRAGON geometrical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukomski, A.; McIntee, B.; Moule, D.; Nichita, E.

    2008-01-01

    DRAGON is a neutron transport and depletion code able to solve one-, two- and three-dimensional problems. To date DRAGON provides two visualization modules, able to represent respectively two- and three-dimensional geometries. The two-dimensional visualization module generates a postscript file, while the three dimensional visualization module generates a MATLAB M-file with instructions for drawing the tracks in the DRAGON TRACKING data structure, which implicitly provide a representation of the geometry. The current work introduces a new, standalone, tool based on the open-source Visualization Toolkit (VTK) software package which allows the visualization of three-dimensional geometrical models by reading the DRAGON GEOMETRY data structure and generating an axonometric image which can be manipulated interactively by the user. (author)

  11. The Innsbruck/ESO sky models and telluric correction tools*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimeswenger S.

    2015-01-01

    While the ground based astronomical observatories just have to correct for the line-of-sight integral of these effects, the Čerenkov telescopes use the atmosphere as the primary detector. The measured radiation originates at lower altitudes and does not pass through the entire atmosphere. Thus, a decent knowledge of the profile of the atmosphere at any time is required. The latter cannot be achieved by photometric measurements of stellar sources. We show here the capabilities of our sky background model and data reduction tools for ground-based optical/infrared telescopes. Furthermore, we discuss the feasibility of monitoring the atmosphere above any observing site, and thus, the possible application of the method for Čerenkov telescopes.

  12. Modeling of tool path for the CNC sheet cutting machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petunin, Aleksandr A.

    2015-11-01

    In the paper the problem of tool path optimization for CNC (Computer Numerical Control) cutting machines is considered. The classification of the cutting techniques is offered. We also propose a new classification of toll path problems. The tasks of cost minimization and time minimization for standard cutting technique (Continuous Cutting Problem, CCP) and for one of non-standard cutting techniques (Segment Continuous Cutting Problem, SCCP) are formalized. We show that the optimization tasks can be interpreted as discrete optimization problem (generalized travel salesman problem with additional constraints, GTSP). Formalization of some constraints for these tasks is described. For the solution GTSP we offer to use mathematical model of Prof. Chentsov based on concept of a megalopolis and dynamic programming.

  13. Malnutrition risk in hospitalized children: use of 3 screening tools in a large European population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chourdakis, Michael; Hecht, Christina; Gerasimidis, Konstantinos; Joosten, Koen Fm; Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Koetse, Harma A; Ksiazyk, Janusz; Lazea, Cecilia; Shamir, Raanan; Szajewska, Hania; Koletzko, Berthold; Hulst, Jessie M

    2016-05-01

    Several malnutrition screening tools have been advocated for use in pediatric inpatients. We evaluated how 3 popular pediatric nutrition screening tools [i.e., the Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), the Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP), and the Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGKIDS)] compared with and were related to anthropometric measures, body composition, and clinical variables in patients who were admitted to tertiary hospitals across Europe. The 3 screening tools were applied in 2567 inpatients at 14 hospitals across 12 European countries. The classification of patients into different nutritional risk groups was compared between tools and related to anthropometric measures and clinical variables [e.g., length of hospital stay (LOS) and infection rates]. A similar rate of completion of the screening tools for each tool was achieved (PYMS: 86%; STAMP: 84%; and STRONGKIDS: 81%). Risk classification differed markedly by tool, with an overall agreement of 41% between tools. Children categorized as high risk (PYMS: 25%; STAMP: 23%; and STRONGKIDS: 10%) had a longer LOS than that of children at low risk (1.4, 1.4, and 1.8 d longer, respectively; P malnutrition risk varied across the pediatric tools used. A considerable portion of children with subnormal anthropometric measures were not identified with all of the tools. The data obtained do not allow recommending the use of any of these screening tools for clinical practice. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01132742. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  14. Augmenting Predictive Modeling Tools with Clinical Insights for Care Coordination Program Design and Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Tracy L; Brewer, Daniel; Estacio, Raymond; Vlasimsky, Tara; Durfee, Michael J; Thompson, Kathy R; Everhart, Rachel M; Rinehart, Deborath J; Batal, Holly

    2015-01-01

    The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) awarded Denver Health's (DH) integrated, safety net health care system $19.8 million to implement a "population health" approach into the delivery of primary care. This major practice transformation builds on the Patient Centered Medical Home (PCMH) and Wagner's Chronic Care Model (CCM) to achieve the "Triple Aim": improved health for populations, care to individuals, and lower per capita costs. This paper presents a case study of how DH integrated published predictive models and front-line clinical judgment to implement a clinically actionable, risk stratification of patients. This population segmentation approach was used to deploy enhanced care team staff resources and to tailor care-management services to patient need, especially for patients at high risk of avoidable hospitalization. Developing, implementing, and gaining clinical acceptance of the Health Information Technology (HIT) solution for patient risk stratification was a major grant objective. In addition to describing the Information Technology (IT) solution itself, we focus on the leadership and organizational processes that facilitated its multidisciplinary development and ongoing iterative refinement, including the following: team composition, target population definition, algorithm rule development, performance assessment, and clinical-workflow optimization. We provide examples of how dynamic business intelligence tools facilitated clinical accessibility for program design decisions by enabling real-time data views from a population perspective down to patient-specific variables. We conclude that population segmentation approaches that integrate clinical perspectives with predictive modeling results can better identify high opportunity patients amenable to medical home-based, enhanced care team interventions.

  15. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  16. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    OpenAIRE

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  17. Development of hydrogeological modelling tools based on NAMMU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marsic, N. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Hartley, L.; Jackson, P.; Poole, M. [AEA Technology, Harwell (United Kingdom); Morvik, A. [Bergen Software Services International AS, Bergen (Norway)

    2001-09-01

    A number of relatively sophisticated hydrogeological models were developed within the SR 97 project to handle issues such as nesting of scales and the effects of salinity. However, these issues and others are considered of significant importance and generality to warrant further development of the hydrogeological methodology. Several such developments based on the NAMMU package are reported here: - Embedded grid: nesting of the regional- and site-scale models within the same numerical model has given greater consistency in the structural model representation and in the flow between scales. Since there is a continuous representation of the regional- and site-scales the modelling of pathways from the repository no longer has to be contained wholly by the site-scale region. This allows greater choice in the size of the site-scale. - Implicit Fracture Zones (IFZ): this method of incorporating the structural model is very efficient and allows changes to either the mesh or fracture zones to be implemented quickly. It also supports great flexibility in the properties of the structures and rock mass. - Stochastic fractures: new functionality has been added to IFZ to allow arbitrary combinations of stochastic or deterministic fracture zones with the rock-mass. Whether a fracture zone is modelled deterministically or stochastically its statistical properties can be defined independently. - Stochastic modelling: efficient methods for Monte-Carlo simulation of stochastic permeability fields have been implemented and tested on SKB's computers. - Visualisation: the visualisation tool Avizier for NAMMU has been enhanced such that it is efficient for checking models and presentation. - PROPER interface: NAMMU outputs pathlines in PROPER format so that it can be included in PA workflow. The developed methods are illustrated by application to stochastic nested modelling of the Beberg site using data from SR 97. The model properties were in accordance with the regional- and site

  18. Development of hydrogeological modelling tools based on NAMMU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsic, N.; Hartley, L.; Jackson, P.; Poole, M.; Morvik, A.

    2001-09-01

    A number of relatively sophisticated hydrogeological models were developed within the SR 97 project to handle issues such as nesting of scales and the effects of salinity. However, these issues and others are considered of significant importance and generality to warrant further development of the hydrogeological methodology. Several such developments based on the NAMMU package are reported here: - Embedded grid: nesting of the regional- and site-scale models within the same numerical model has given greater consistency in the structural model representation and in the flow between scales. Since there is a continuous representation of the regional- and site-scales the modelling of pathways from the repository no longer has to be contained wholly by the site-scale region. This allows greater choice in the size of the site-scale. - Implicit Fracture Zones (IFZ): this method of incorporating the structural model is very efficient and allows changes to either the mesh or fracture zones to be implemented quickly. It also supports great flexibility in the properties of the structures and rock mass. - Stochastic fractures: new functionality has been added to IFZ to allow arbitrary combinations of stochastic or deterministic fracture zones with the rock-mass. Whether a fracture zone is modelled deterministically or stochastically its statistical properties can be defined independently. - Stochastic modelling: efficient methods for Monte-Carlo simulation of stochastic permeability fields have been implemented and tested on SKB's computers. - Visualisation: the visualisation tool Avizier for NAMMU has been enhanced such that it is efficient for checking models and presentation. - PROPER interface: NAMMU outputs pathlines in PROPER format so that it can be included in PA workflow. The developed methods are illustrated by application to stochastic nested modelling of the Beberg site using data from SR 97. The model properties were in accordance with the regional- and site

  19. Planning the network of gas pipelines through modeling tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sucupira, Marcos L.L.; Lutif Filho, Raimundo B. [Companhia de Gas do Ceara (CEGAS), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Natural gas is a source of non-renewable energy used by different sectors of the economy of Ceara. Its use may be industrial, residential, commercial, as a source of automotive fuel, as a co-generation of energy and as a source for generating electricity from heat. For its practicality this energy has a strong market acceptance and provides a broad list of clients to fit their use, which makes it possible to reach diverse parts of the city. Its distribution requires a complex network of pipelines that branches throughout the city to meet all potential clients interested in this source of energy. To facilitate the design, analysis, expansion and location of bottlenecks and breaks in the distribution network, a modeling software is used that allows the network manager of the net to manage the various information about the network. This paper presents the advantages of modeling the gas distribution network of natural gas companies in Ceara, showing the tool used, the steps necessary for the implementation of the models, the advantages of using the software and the findings obtained with its use. (author)

  20. Complex Coronary Hemodynamics - Simple Analog Modelling as an Educational Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Gaurav R; Peter, Elvis; Kakouros, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Invasive coronary angiography remains the cornerstone for evaluation of coronary stenoses despite there being a poor correlation between luminal loss assessment by coronary luminography and myocardial ischemia. This is especially true for coronary lesions deemed moderate by visual assessment. Coronary pressure-derived fractional flow reserve (FFR) has emerged as the gold standard for the evaluation of hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis, which is cost effective and leads to improved patient outcomes. There are, however, several limitations to the use of FFR including the evaluation of serial stenoses. In this article, we discuss the electronic-hydraulic analogy and the utility of simple electrical modelling to mimic the coronary circulation and coronary stenoses. We exemplify the effect of tandem coronary lesions on the FFR by modelling of a patient with sequential disease segments and complex anatomy. We believe that such computational modelling can serve as a powerful educational tool to help clinicians better understand the complexity of coronary hemodynamics and improve patient care.

  1. Extending the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration: Adding Pedagogy as a New Model Construct

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knezek, Gerald; Christensen, Rhonda

    2016-01-01

    An expansion of the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration to include teacher's pedagogical style is proposed by the authors as a means of advancing the predictive power of the model for level of classroom technology integration to beyond 90%. Suggested advantages to this expansion include more precise identification of areas to be…

  2. Genome-wide analysis of signatures of selection in populations of African honey bees (Apis mellifera) using new web-based tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Zachary L; Niño, Elina L; Patch, Harland M; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C; Baumgarten, Tracey; Muli, Elliud; Mumoki, Fiona; Ratan, Aakrosh; McGraw, John; Frazier, Maryann; Masiga, Daniel; Schuster, Stephen; Grozinger, Christina M; Miller, Webb

    2015-07-10

    With the development of inexpensive, high-throughput sequencing technologies, it has become feasible to examine questions related to population genetics and molecular evolution of non-model species in their ecological contexts on a genome-wide scale. Here, we employed a newly developed suite of integrated, web-based programs to examine population dynamics and signatures of selection across the genome using several well-established tests, including F ST, pN/pS, and McDonald-Kreitman. We applied these techniques to study populations of honey bees (Apis mellifera) in East Africa. In Kenya, there are several described A. mellifera subspecies, which are thought to be localized to distinct ecological regions. We performed whole genome sequencing of 11 worker honey bees from apiaries distributed throughout Kenya and identified 3.6 million putative single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The dense coverage allowed us to apply several computational procedures to study population structure and the evolutionary relationships among the populations, and to detect signs of adaptive evolution across the genome. While there is considerable gene flow among the sampled populations, there are clear distinctions between populations from the northern desert region and those from the temperate, savannah region. We identified several genes showing population genetic patterns consistent with positive selection within African bee populations, and between these populations and European A. mellifera or Asian Apis florea. These results lay the groundwork for future studies of adaptive ecological evolution in honey bees, and demonstrate the use of new, freely available web-based tools and workflows ( http://usegalaxy.org/r/kenyanbee ) that can be applied to any model system with genomic information.

  3. Three Software Tools for Viewing Sectional Planes, Volume Models, and Surface Models of a Cadaver Hand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Beom Sun; Chung, Min Suk; Shin, Byeong Seok; Kwon, Koojoo

    2018-02-19

    The hand anatomy, including the complicated hand muscles, can be grasped by using computer-assisted learning tools with high quality two-dimensional images and three-dimensional models. The purpose of this study was to present up-to-date software tools that promote learning of stereoscopic morphology of the hand. On the basis of horizontal sectioned images and outlined images of a male cadaver, vertical planes, volume models, and surface models were elaborated. Software to browse pairs of the sectioned and outlined images in orthogonal planes and software to peel and rotate the volume models, as well as a portable document format (PDF) file to select and rotate the surface models, were produced. All of the software tools were downloadable free of charge and usable off-line. The three types of tools for viewing multiple aspects of the hand could be adequately employed according to individual needs. These new tools involving the realistic images of a cadaver and the diverse functions are expected to improve comprehensive knowledge of the hand shape. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  4. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  5. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  6. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  7. Stochastic models for structured populations scaling limits and long time behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Meleard, Sylvie

    2015-01-01

    In this contribution, several probabilistic tools to study population dynamics are developed. The focus is on scaling limits of qualitatively different stochastic individual based models and the long time behavior of some classes of limiting processes. Structured population dynamics are modeled by measure-valued processes describing the individual behaviors and taking into account the demographic and mutational parameters, and possible interactions between individuals. Many quantitative parameters appear in these models and several relevant normalizations are considered, leading  to infinite-dimensional deterministic or stochastic large-population approximations. Biologically relevant questions are considered, such as extinction criteria, the effect of large birth events, the impact of  environmental catastrophes, the mutation-selection trade-off, recovery criteria in parasite infections, genealogical properties of a sample of individuals. These notes originated from a lecture series on Structured P...

  8. Novel R tools for analysis of genome-wide population genetic data with emphasis on clonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    To gain a detailed understanding of how plant microbes evolve and adapt to hosts, pesticides, and other factors, knowledge of the population dynamics and evolutionary history of populations is crucial. Plant pathogen populations are often clonal or partially clonal which requires different analytica...

  9. A crowdsourcing model for creating preclinical medical education study tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bow, Hansen C; Dattilo, Jonathan R; Jonas, Andrea M; Lehmann, Christoph U

    2013-06-01

    During their preclinical course work, medical students must memorize and recall substantial amounts of information. Recent trends in medical education emphasize collaboration through team-based learning. In the technology world, the trend toward collaboration has been characterized by the crowdsourcing movement. In 2011, the authors developed an innovative approach to team-based learning that combined students' use of flashcards to master large volumes of content with a crowdsourcing model, using a simple informatics system to enable those students to share in the effort of generating concise, high-yield study materials. The authors used Google Drive and developed a simple Java software program that enabled students to simultaneously access and edit sets of questions and answers in the form of flashcards. Through this crowdsourcing model, medical students in the class of 2014 at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine created a database of over 16,000 questions that corresponded to the Genes to Society basic science curriculum. An analysis of exam scores revealed that students in the class of 2014 outperformed those in the class of 2013, who did not have access to the flashcard system, and a survey of students demonstrated that users were generally satisfied with the system and found it a valuable study tool. In this article, the authors describe the development and implementation of their crowdsourcing model for creating study materials, emphasize its simplicity and user-friendliness, describe its impact on students' exam performance, and discuss how students in any educational discipline could implement a similar model of collaborative learning.

  10. Measurement properties of tools used to assess suicidality in autistic and general population adults: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, S A; Bradley, L; Bowen, E; Wigham, S; Rodgers, J

    2018-05-05

    Adults diagnosed with autism are at significantly increased risk of suicidal thoughts, suicidal behaviours and dying by suicide. However, it is unclear whether any validated tools are currently available to effectively assess suicidality in autistic adults in research and clinical practice. This is crucial for understanding and preventing premature death by suicide in this vulnerable group. This two stage systematic review therefore aimed to identify tools used to assess suicidality in autistic and general population adults, evaluate these tools for their appropriateness and measurement properties, and make recommendations for appropriate selection of suicidality assessment tools in research and clinical practice. Three databases were searched (PsycInfo, Medline and Web of Knowledge). Four frequently used suicidality assessment tools were identified, and subsequently rated for quality of the evidence in support of their measurement properties using the COSMIN checklist. Despite studies having explored suicidality in autistic adults, none had utilised a validated tool. Overall, there was lack of evidence in support of suicidality risk assessments successfully predicting future suicide attempts. We recommend adaptations to current suicidality assessment tools and priorities for future research, in order to better conceptualise suicidality and its measurement in autism. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Tools and Models for Integrating Multiple Cellular Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstein, Mark [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). Gerstein Lab.

    2015-11-06

    In this grant, we have systematically investigated the integrated networks, which are responsible for the coordination of activity between metabolic pathways in prokaryotes. We have developed several computational tools to analyze the topology of the integrated networks consisting of metabolic, regulatory, and physical interaction networks. The tools are all open-source, and they are available to download from Github, and can be incorporated in the Knowledgebase. Here, we summarize our work as follow. Understanding the topology of the integrated networks is the first step toward understanding its dynamics and evolution. For Aim 1 of this grant, we have developed a novel algorithm to determine and measure the hierarchical structure of transcriptional regulatory networks [1]. The hierarchy captures the direction of information flow in the network. The algorithm is generally applicable to regulatory networks in prokaryotes, yeast and higher organisms. Integrated datasets are extremely beneficial in understanding the biology of a system in a compact manner due to the conflation of multiple layers of information. Therefore for Aim 2 of this grant, we have developed several tools and carried out analysis for integrating system-wide genomic information. To make use of the structural data, we have developed DynaSIN for protein-protein interactions networks with various dynamical interfaces [2]. We then examined the association between network topology with phenotypic effects such as gene essentiality. In particular, we have organized E. coli and S. cerevisiae transcriptional regulatory networks into hierarchies. We then correlated gene phenotypic effects by tinkering with different layers to elucidate which layers were more tolerant to perturbations [3]. In the context of evolution, we also developed a workflow to guide the comparison between different types of biological networks across various species using the concept of rewiring [4], and Furthermore, we have developed

  12. Mouse Models for Drug Discovery. Can New Tools and Technology Improve Translational Power?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuberi, Aamir; Lutz, Cathleen

    2016-12-01

    The use of mouse models in biomedical research and preclinical drug evaluation is on the rise. The advent of new molecular genome-altering technologies such as CRISPR/Cas9 allows for genetic mutations to be introduced into the germ line of a mouse faster and less expensively than previous methods. In addition, the rapid progress in the development and use of somatic transgenesis using viral vectors, as well as manipulations of gene expression with siRNAs and antisense oligonucleotides, allow for even greater exploration into genomics and systems biology. These technological advances come at a time when cost reductions in genome sequencing have led to the identification of pathogenic mutations in patient populations, providing unprecedented opportunities in the use of mice to model human disease. The ease of genetic engineering in mice also offers a potential paradigm shift in resource sharing and the speed by which models are made available in the public domain. Predictively, the knowledge alone that a model can be quickly remade will provide relief to resources encumbered by licensing and Material Transfer Agreements. For decades, mouse strains have provided an exquisite experimental tool to study the pathophysiology of the disease and assess therapeutic options in a genetically defined system. However, a major limitation of the mouse has been the limited genetic diversity associated with common laboratory mice. This has been overcome with the recent development of the Collaborative Cross and Diversity Outbred mice. These strains provide new tools capable of replicating genetic diversity to that approaching the diversity found in human populations. The Collaborative Cross and Diversity Outbred strains thus provide a means to observe and characterize toxicity or efficacy of new therapeutic drugs for a given population. The combination of traditional and contemporary mouse genome editing tools, along with the addition of genetic diversity in new modeling systems

  13. Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

    2014-01-01

    The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

  14. TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mill JG

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032, confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776. Conclusion TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world

  15. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

  16. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  17. Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

    -mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

  18. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  19. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  20. Computer model for predicting the effect of inherited sterility on population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpenter, J.E.; Layton, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    A Fortran based computer program was developed to facilitate modelling different inherited sterility data sets under various paradigms. The model was designed to allow variable input for several different parameters, such as rate of increase per generation, release ratio and initial population levels, reproductive rates and sex ratios resulting from different matings, and the number of nights a female is active in mating and oviposition. The model and computer program should be valuable tools for recognizing areas in which information is lacking and for identifying the effect that different parameters can have on the efficacy of the inherited sterility method. (author). 8 refs, 4 figs

  1. Multi-dimensional population balance models of crystallization processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup; von Solms, Nicolas

    A generic and model-based framework for batch cooling crystallization operations has been extended to incorporate continuous and fed-batch processes. Modules for the framework have been developed, including a module for reactions, allowing the study of reactive crystallization within the framework....... A kinetic model library together with an ontology for knowledge representation has been developed, in which kinetic models and relations from the literature are stored along with the references and data. The model library connects to the generic modelling framework as well, as models can be retrieved......, analyzed, used for simulation and stored again. The model library facilitates comparison of expressions for kinetic phenomena and is tightly integrated with the model analysis tools of the framework.Through the framework, a model for a crystallization operation may be systematically generated...

  2. 33 CFR 385.33 - Revisions to models and analytical tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... on a case-by-case basis what documentation is appropriate for revisions to models and analytic tools... analytical tools. 385.33 Section 385.33 Navigation and Navigable Waters CORPS OF ENGINEERS, DEPARTMENT OF THE... Incorporating New Information Into the Plan § 385.33 Revisions to models and analytical tools. (a) In carrying...

  3. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  4. The genealogical decomposition of a matrix population model with applications to the aggregation of stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bienvenu, François; Akçay, Erol; Legendre, Stéphane; McCandlish, David M

    2017-06-01

    Matrix projection models are a central tool in many areas of population biology. In most applications, one starts from the projection matrix to quantify the asymptotic growth rate of the population (the dominant eigenvalue), the stable stage distribution, and the reproductive values (the dominant right and left eigenvectors, respectively). Any primitive projection matrix also has an associated ergodic Markov chain that contains information about the genealogy of the population. In this paper, we show that these facts can be used to specify any matrix population model as a triple consisting of the ergodic Markov matrix, the dominant eigenvalue and one of the corresponding eigenvectors. This decomposition of the projection matrix separates properties associated with lineages from those associated with individuals. It also clarifies the relationships between many quantities commonly used to describe such models, including the relationship between eigenvalue sensitivities and elasticities. We illustrate the utility of such a decomposition by introducing a new method for aggregating classes in a matrix population model to produce a simpler model with a smaller number of classes. Unlike the standard method, our method has the advantage of preserving reproductive values and elasticities. It also has conceptually satisfying properties such as commuting with changes of units. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Provider Profiling: A Population Health Improvement Tool for the Southeast Military Health System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pemberton, Phillip

    1999-01-01

    ...). Profiling with Provider Perspectives, a Primary Care Management Tool, provides the SEMHS with a standardized performance measurement system that offers feedback in a user friendly and non-threatening format...

  6. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  7. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  8. Programming strategy for efficient modeling of dynamics in a population of heterogeneous cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hald, Bjørn Olav; Garkier Hendriksen, Morten; Sørensen, Preben Graae

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity is a ubiquitous property of biological systems. Even in a genetically identical population of a single cell type, cell-to-cell differences are observed. Although the functional behavior of a given population is generally robust, the consequences of heterogeneity are fairly unpredictable. In heterogeneous populations, synchronization of events becomes a cardinal problem-particularly for phase coherence in oscillating systems. The present article presents a novel strategy for construction of large-scale simulation programs of heterogeneous biological entities. The strategy is designed to be tractable, to handle heterogeneity and to handle computational cost issues simultaneously, primarily by writing a generator of the 'model to be simulated'. We apply the strategy to model glycolytic oscillations among thousands of yeast cells coupled through the extracellular medium. The usefulness is illustrated through (i) benchmarking, showing an almost linear relationship between model size and run time, and (ii) analysis of the resulting simulations, showing that contrary to the experimental situation, synchronous oscillations are surprisingly hard to achieve, underpinning the need for tools to study heterogeneity. Thus, we present an efficient strategy to model the biological heterogeneity, neglected by ordinary mean-field models. This tool is well posed to facilitate the elucidation of the physiologically vital problem of synchronization. The complete python code is available as Supplementary Information. bjornhald@gmail.com or pgs@kiku.dk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  9. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  10. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  11. Multimedia Informed Consent Tool for a Low Literacy African Research Population: Development and Pilot-Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afolabi, Muhammed Olanrewaju; Bojang, Kalifa; D’Alessandro, Umberto; Imoukhuede, Egeruan Babatunde; Ravinetto, Raffaella M; Larson, Heidi Jane; McGrath, Nuala; Chandramohan, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Background International guidelines recommend the use of appropriate informed consent procedures in low literacy research settings because written information is not known to guarantee comprehension of study information. Objectives This study developed and evaluated a multimedia informed consent tool for people with low literacy in an area where a malaria treatment trial was being planned in The Gambia. Methods We developed the informed consent document of the malaria treatment trial into a multimedia tool integrating video, animations and audio narrations in three major Gambian languages. Acceptability and ease of use of the multimedia tool were assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods. In two separate visits, the participants’ comprehension of the study information was measured by using a validated digitised audio questionnaire. Results The majority of participants (70%) reported that the multimedia tool was clear and easy to understand. Participants had high scores on the domains of adverse events/risk, voluntary participation, study procedures while lowest scores were recorded on the question items on randomisation. The differences in mean scores for participants’ ‘recall’ and ‘understanding’ between first and second visits were statistically significant (F (1,41)=25.38, pmultimedia tool was acceptable and easy to administer among low literacy participants in The Gambia. It also proved to be effective in delivering and sustaining comprehension of study information across a diverse group of participants. Additional research is needed to compare the tool to the traditional consent interview, both in The Gambia and in other sub-Saharan settings. PMID:25133065

  12. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  14. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    OpenAIRE

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  15. Analytical Modeling Tool for Design of Hydrocarbon Sensitive Optical Fibers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Al Handawi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Pipelines are the main transportation means for oil and gas products across large distances. Due to the severe conditions they operate in, they are regularly inspected using conventional Pipeline Inspection Gages (PIGs for corrosion damage. The motivation for researching a real-time distributed monitoring solution arose to mitigate costs and provide a proactive indication of potential failures. Fiber optic sensors with polymer claddings provide a means of detecting contact with hydrocarbons. By coating the fibers with a layer of metal similar in composition to that of the parent pipeline, corrosion of this coating may be detected when the polymer cladding underneath is exposed to the surrounding hydrocarbons contained within the pipeline. A Refractive Index (RI change occurs in the polymer cladding causing a loss in intensity of a traveling light pulse due to a reduction in the fiber’s modal capacity. Intensity losses may be detected using Optical Time Domain Reflectometry (OTDR while pinpointing the spatial location of the contact via time delay calculations of the back-scattered pulses. This work presents a theoretical model for the above sensing solution to provide a design tool for the fiber optic cable in the context of hydrocarbon sensing following corrosion of an external metal coating. Results are verified against the experimental data published in the literature.

  16. Analytical Modeling Tool for Design of Hydrocarbon Sensitive Optical Fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Handawi, Khalil; Vahdati, Nader; Shiryayev, Oleg; Lawand, Lydia

    2017-09-28

    Pipelines are the main transportation means for oil and gas products across large distances. Due to the severe conditions they operate in, they are regularly inspected using conventional Pipeline Inspection Gages (PIGs) for corrosion damage. The motivation for researching a real-time distributed monitoring solution arose to mitigate costs and provide a proactive indication of potential failures. Fiber optic sensors with polymer claddings provide a means of detecting contact with hydrocarbons. By coating the fibers with a layer of metal similar in composition to that of the parent pipeline, corrosion of this coating may be detected when the polymer cladding underneath is exposed to the surrounding hydrocarbons contained within the pipeline. A Refractive Index (RI) change occurs in the polymer cladding causing a loss in intensity of a traveling light pulse due to a reduction in the fiber's modal capacity. Intensity losses may be detected using Optical Time Domain Reflectometry (OTDR) while pinpointing the spatial location of the contact via time delay calculations of the back-scattered pulses. This work presents a theoretical model for the above sensing solution to provide a design tool for the fiber optic cable in the context of hydrocarbon sensing following corrosion of an external metal coating. Results are verified against the experimental data published in the literature.

  17. Modeling the Spray Forming of H13 Steel Tooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yaojun; McHugh, Kevin M.; Zhou, Yizhang; Lavernia, Enrique J.

    2007-07-01

    On the basis of a numerical model, the temperature and liquid fraction of spray-formed H13 tool steel are calculated as a function of time. Results show that a preheated substrate at the appropriate temperature can lead to very low porosity by increasing the liquid fraction in the deposited steel. The calculated cooling rate can lead to a microstructure consisting of martensite, lower bainite, retained austenite, and proeutectoid carbides in as-spray-formed material. In the temperature range between the solidus and liquidus temperatures, the calculated temperature of the spray-formed material increases with increasing substrate preheat temperature, resulting in a very low porosity by increasing the liquid fraction of the deposited steel. In the temperature region where austenite decomposition occurs, the substrate preheat temperature has a negligible influence on the cooling rate of the spray-formed material. On the basis of the calculated results, it is possible to generate sufficient liquid fraction during spray forming by using a high growth rate of the deposit without preheating the substrate, and the growth rate of the deposit has almost no influence on the cooling rate in the temperature region of austenite decomposition.

  18. ModelMage: a tool for automatic model generation, selection and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flöttmann, Max; Schaber, Jörg; Hoops, Stephan; Klipp, Edda; Mendes, Pedro

    2008-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of biological systems usually involves implementing, simulating, and discriminating several candidate models that represent alternative hypotheses. Generating and managing these candidate models is a tedious and difficult task and can easily lead to errors. ModelMage is a tool that facilitates management of candidate models. It is designed for the easy and rapid development, generation, simulation, and discrimination of candidate models. The main idea of the program is to automatically create a defined set of model alternatives from a single master model. The user provides only one SBML-model and a set of directives from which the candidate models are created by leaving out species, modifiers or reactions. After generating models the software can automatically fit all these models to the data and provides a ranking for model selection, in case data is available. In contrast to other model generation programs, ModelMage aims at generating only a limited set of models that the user can precisely define. ModelMage uses COPASI as a simulation and optimization engine. Thus, all simulation and optimization features of COPASI are readily incorporated. ModelMage can be downloaded from http://sysbio.molgen.mpg.de/modelmage and is distributed as free software.

  19. Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

  20. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  1. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  2. The OENORM S 5200 'Radioactivity in building materials' as a tool for radiation protection of the general population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunsch, B.

    1989-04-01

    This report comprises two papers, one which is announced in the title, i.e. B. Kunsch, F. Steger, E. Tschirf: The OENORM S 5200 'Radioactivity in building materials' as a tool for radiation protection of the general population; and in addition a paper by F. Steger, H. Stadtmann, P. Kindl, L. Breitenhuber: Radon in dwellings: investigations and measurements. The two papers are treated separately. (qui)

  3. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  4. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  5. The Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration: Adding Pedagogy as a New Model Construct

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knezek, Gerald; Christensen, Rhonda

    2015-01-01

    An expansion of the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration to include teacher's pedagogical style is proposed by the authors as a means of advancing the predictive power for level of classroom technology integration to beyond 90%. Suggested advantages to this expansion include more precise identification of areas to be targeted for…

  6. Stone Tools Continuity of the Late Mesolithic and Early Neolithic Population of the Lower Kama River Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viskalin Aleksandr V.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A widespread thesis concerning population continuity in the Lower Kama region during the Late Mesolithic and the Early Neolithic is challenged in the article. The thesis in question has been based upon the similarity of the stone tools complex of the earliest Neolithic cultures in the region – those of the Stroke-ornamented and Combed Ware and the preceding Mesolithic monuments. It is argued that the similarity of the stone tools referring to the Mesolithic and the Neolithic results from mechanical admixture of Mesolithic flint in the Neolithic layers, which had produced the leveling of cultural differences. This view is supported by the presence of individual Neolithic monuments, where the stone tools corpus is practically lacking archaic features connected with the local Mesolithic.

  7. The Development of a Communication Tool to Facilitate the Cancer Trial Recruitment Process and Increase Research Literacy among Underrepresented Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Samantha; de la Riva, Erika E; Tom, Laura S; Clayman, Marla L; Taylor, Chirisse; Dong, Xinqi; Simon, Melissa A

    2015-12-01

    Despite increasing need to boost the recruitment of underrepresented populations into cancer trials and biobanking research, few tools exist for facilitating dialogue between researchers and potential research participants during the recruitment process. In this paper, we describe the initial processes of a user-centered design cycle to develop a standardized research communication tool prototype for enhancing research literacy among individuals from underrepresented populations considering enrollment in cancer research and biobanking studies. We present qualitative feedback and recommendations on the prototype's design and content from potential end users: five clinical trial recruiters and ten potential research participants recruited from an academic medical center. Participants were given the prototype (a set of laminated cards) and were asked to provide feedback about the tool's content, design elements, and word choices during semi-structured, in-person interviews. Results suggest that the prototype was well received by recruiters and patients alike. They favored the simplicity, lay language, and layout of the cards. They also noted areas for improvement, leading to card refinements that included the following: addressing additional topic areas, clarifying research processes, increasing the number of diverse images, and using alternative word choices. Our process for refining user interfaces and iterating content in early phases of design may inform future efforts to develop tools for use in clinical research or biobanking studies to increase research literacy.

  8. Multimedia Informed Consent Tool for a Low Literacy African Research Population: Development and Pilot-Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afolabi, Muhammed Olanrewaju; Bojang, Kalifa; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Imoukhuede, Egeruan Babatunde; Ravinetto, Raffaella M; Larson, Heidi Jane; McGrath, Nuala; Chandramohan, Daniel

    2014-04-05

    International guidelines recommend the use of appropriate informed consent procedures in low literacy research settings because written information is not known to guarantee comprehension of study information. This study developed and evaluated a multimedia informed consent tool for people with low literacy in an area where a malaria treatment trial was being planned in The Gambia. We developed the informed consent document of the malaria treatment trial into a multimedia tool integrating video, animations and audio narrations in three major Gambian languages. Acceptability and ease of use of the multimedia tool were assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods. In two separate visits, the participants' comprehension of the study information was measured by using a validated digitised audio questionnaire. The majority of participants (70%) reported that the multimedia tool was clear and easy to understand. Participants had high scores on the domains of adverse events/risk, voluntary participation, study procedures while lowest scores were recorded on the question items on randomisation. The differences in mean scores for participants' 'recall' and 'understanding' between first and second visits were statistically significant (F (1,41)=25.38, presearch is needed to compare the tool to the traditional consent interview, both in The Gambia and in other sub-Saharan settings.

  9. Testing the reliability of the Fall Risk Screening Tool in an elderly ambulatory population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Susan J; McKay, Michael; Hyrkas, Kristiina

    2013-11-01

    To identify and test the reliability of a fall risk screening tool in an ambulatory outpatient clinic. The Fall Risk Screening Tool (Albert Lea Medical Center, MN, USA) was scripted for an interview format. Two interviewers separately screened a convenience sample of 111 patients (age ≥ 65 years) in an ambulatory outpatient clinic in a northeastern US city. The interviewers' scoring of fall risk categories was similar. There was good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.834-0.889) and inter-rater reliability [intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.824-0.881] for total, Risk Factor and Client's Health Status subscales. The Physical Environment scores indicated acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.742) and adequate reliability (ICC = 0.688). Two Physical Environment items (furniture and medical equipment condition) had low reliabilities [Kappa (K) = 0.323, P = 0.08; K = -0.078, P = 0.648), respectively. The scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool demonstrated good reliability in this sample. Rewording two Physical Environment items will be considered. A reliable instrument such as the scripted Fall Risk Screening Tool provides a standardised assessment for identifying high fall risk patients. This tool is especially useful because it assesses personal, behavioural and environmental factors specific to community-dwelling patients; the interview format also facilitates patient-provider interaction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Site-specific selfish genes as tools for the control and genetic engineering of natural populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Austin

    2003-05-07

    Site-specific selfish genes exploit host functions to copy themselves into a defined target DNA sequence, and include homing endonuclease genes, group II introns and some LINE-like transposable elements. If such genes can be engineered to target new host sequences, then they can be used to manipulate natural populations, even if the number of individuals released is a small fraction of the entire population. For example, a genetic load sufficient to eradicate a population can be imposed in fewer than 20 generations, if the target is an essential host gene, the knockout is recessive and the selfish gene has an appropriate promoter. There will be selection for resistance, but several strategies are available for reducing the likelihood of it evolving. These genes may also be used to genetically engineer natural populations, by means of population-wide gene knockouts, gene replacements and genetic transformations. By targeting sex-linked loci just prior to meiosis one may skew the population sex ratio, and by changing the promoter one may limit the spread of the gene to neighbouring populations. The proposed constructs are evolutionarily stable in the face of the mutations most likely to arise during their spread, and strategies are also available for reversing the manipulations.

  11. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  12. Multi-category micro-milling tool wear monitoring with continuous hidden Markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kunpeng; Wong, Yoke San; Hong, Geok Soon

    2009-02-01

    In-process monitoring of tool conditions is important in micro-machining due to the high precision requirement and high tool wear rate. Tool condition monitoring in micro-machining poses new challenges compared to conventional machining. In this paper, a multi-category classification approach is proposed for tool flank wear state identification in micro-milling. Continuous Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are adapted for modeling of the tool wear process in micro-milling, and estimation of the tool wear state given the cutting force features. For a noise-robust approach, the HMM outputs are connected via a medium filter to minimize the tool state before entry into the next state due to high noise level. A detailed study on the selection of HMM structures for tool condition monitoring (TCM) is presented. Case studies on the tool state estimation in the micro-milling of pure copper and steel demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of these methods.

  13. Pilot of Te Tomokanga: A Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service Evaluation Tool for an Indigenous Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahu McClintock

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe acceptability of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS to Indigenous peoples is little studied. There has been a lack of evaluation tools able to take account of the more holistic approach to the attainment of mental health that characterises Māori, the Indigenous population of Aotearoa (New Zealand. This study aimed to develop such an instrument and establish some of its psychometric properties. Then, to use the measure to establish whānau (family or caregiver views on desirable CAMHS characteristics.MethodA self-administered survey, Te Tomokanga, was developed by modifying a North American questionnaire, the Youth Services Survey for Families (YSS-F. The intent of the tool was to record whānau experiences and views on service acceptability.The Te Tomokanga survey is unique in that it incorporates questions designed to examine CAMHS delivery in light of the Whare Tapa Whā[1], a Māori comprehensive model of health with a focus on whānau involvement and culturally responsive services. This mail or telephone survey was completed by a cohort of 168 Māori whānau. Their children had been referred to one of the three types of CAMHS, mainstream, bicultural, and kaupapa Māori[2], of the District Health Board (DHBs in the Midland health region, Aotearoa. The Midland health region is an area with a large Māori population with high levels of social deprivation.ResultsThe Te Tomokanga instrument was shown to have a similar factor structure to the North American questionnaire from which it had been derived. It identified issues relevant to Māori whānau satisfaction with CAMHS. The work supports the concept that Māori desire therapeutic methods consistent with the Whare Tapa Whā, such as whānau involvement and the importance of recognising culture and spirituality.The participants were generally positive about the services they received from the three different CAMHS types, which shows good acceptability of CAMHS for

  14. SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupl, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.

  15. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  16. VISIT-TS: A multimedia tool for population studies on tic disorders [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jonathan Vachon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Population-based assessment of Tourette syndrome (TS and other tic disorders produces a paradox. On one hand, ideally diagnosis of tic disorders requires expert observation. In fact, diagnostic criteria for TS explicitly require expert assessment of tics for a definite diagnosis. On the other hand, large-scale population surveys with expert assessment of every subject are impracticable. True, several published studies have successfully used expert assessment to find tic prevalence in a representative population (e.g. all students in a school district. However, extending these studies to larger populations is daunting. We created a multimedia tool to demonstrate tics to a lay audience, discuss their defining and common attributes, and address features that differentiate tics from other movements and vocalizations. A first version was modified to improve clarity and to include a more diverse group in terms of age and ethnicity. The result is a tool intended for epidemiological research. It may also provide additional benefits, such as more representative minority recruitment for other TS studies and increased community awareness of TS.

  17. Response Surface Modeling Tool Suite, Version 1.x

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-07-05

    The Response Surface Modeling (RSM) Tool Suite is a collection of three codes used to generate an empirical interpolation function for a collection of drag coefficient calculations computed with Test Particle Monte Carlo (TPMC) simulations. The first code, "Automated RSM", automates the generation of a drag coefficient RSM for a particular object to a single command. "Automated RSM" first creates a Latin Hypercube Sample (LHS) of 1,000 ensemble members to explore the global parameter space. For each ensemble member, a TPMC simulation is performed and the object drag coefficient is computed. In the next step of the "Automated RSM" code, a Gaussian process is used to fit the TPMC simulations. In the final step, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to evaluate the non-analytic probability distribution function from the Gaussian process. The second code, "RSM Area", creates a look-up table for the projected area of the object based on input limits on the minimum and maximum allowed pitch and yaw angles and pitch and yaw angle intervals. The projected area from the look-up table is used to compute the ballistic coefficient of the object based on its pitch and yaw angle. An accurate ballistic coefficient is crucial in accurately computing the drag on an object. The third code, "RSM Cd", uses the RSM generated by the "Automated RSM" code and the projected area look-up table generated by the "RSM Area" code to accurately compute the drag coefficient and ballistic coefficient of the object. The user can modify the object velocity, object surface temperature, the translational temperature of the gas, the species concentrations of the gas, and the pitch and yaw angles of the object. Together, these codes allow for the accurate derivation of an object's drag coefficient and ballistic coefficient under any conditions with only knowledge of the object's geometry and mass.

  18. An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

    2000-08-01

    Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

  19. A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subhan, M.

    2018-04-01

    Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

  20. Enhancing Formal Modelling Tool Support with Increased Automation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lausdahl, Kenneth

    Progress report for the qualification exam report for PhD Student Kenneth Lausdahl. Initial work on enhancing tool support for the formal method VDM and the concept of unifying a abstract syntax tree with the ability for isolated extensions is described. The tool support includes a connection to ...... to UML and a test automation principle based on traces written as a kind of regular expressions....

  1. Learning with Admixture: Modeling, Optimization, and Applications in Population Genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Jade Yu

    2016-01-01

    the foundation for both CoalHMM and Ohana. Optimization modeling has been the main theme throughout my PhD, and it will continue to shape my work for the years to come. The algorithms and software I developed to study historical admixture and population evolution fall into a larger family of machine learning...... geneticists strive to establish working solutions to extract information from massive volumes of biological data. The steep increase in the quantity and quality of genomic data during the past decades provides a unique opportunity but also calls for new and improved algorithms and software to cope...... including population splits, effective population sizes, gene flow, etc. Since joining the CoalHMM development team in 2014, I have mainly contributed in two directions: 1) improving optimizations through heuristic-based evolutionary algorithms and 2) modeling of historical admixture events. Ohana, meaning...

  2. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  3. TIMP2 gene polymorphism as a potential tool to infer Brazilian population origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    da Silva RA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Rodrigo Augusto da Silva,1 André Luis Shinohara,2 Denise Carleto Andia,1 Ariadne Letra,3 Regina Célia Peres,1 Ana Paula de Souza11Department of Morphology, Piracicaba Dental School, State University of Campinas, 2Oral Biology Program, Bauru Dental School, State University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; 3Department of Endodontics and Center for Craniofacial Research, School of Dentistry, University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, TX, USAAbstract: Single nucleotide polymorphisms are genome variations that can be used as population-specific markers to infer genetic background and population origin. The Brazilian population is highly admixed due to immigration from several other populations. In particular, the state of São Paulo is recognized for the presence of Japanese individuals who seem likely to have contributed to a substantial proportion of ancestry in the modern Brazilian population. In the present study, we analyzed allele and genotype frequencies and associations of the –418G>C (rs8179090 single nucleotide polymorphism in the TIMP2 gene promoter in Brazilian and Japanese subjects, as well as in Japanese descendants from southeastern Brazil. The allele and genotype frequency analyses among groups demonstrated statistical significance (PC single nucleotide polymorphism of the TIMP2 gene, have a high probability of being Japanese or Japanese descendants. In addition to other genetic polymorphisms, the −418G>C TIMP2 polymorphism could be a population marker to assist in predicting Japanese ancestry, both in Japanese individuals and in admixed populations.Keywords: Brazilian, Japanese, polymorphism, allele, TIMP2

  4. A probabilistic model for cell population phenotyping using HCS data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edouard Pauwels

    Full Text Available High Content Screening (HCS platforms allow screening living cells under a wide range of experimental conditions and give access to a whole panel of cellular responses to a specific treatment. The outcome is a series of cell population images. Within these images, the heterogeneity of cellular response to the same treatment leads to a whole range of observed values for the recorded cellular features. Consequently, it is difficult to compare and interpret experiments. Moreover, the definition of phenotypic classes at a cell population level remains an open question, although this would ease experiments analyses. In the present work, we tackle these two questions. The input of the method is a series of cell population images for which segmentation and cellular phenotype classification has already been performed. We propose a probabilistic model to represent and later compare cell populations. The model is able to fully exploit the HCS-specific information: "dependence structure of population descriptors" and "within-population variability". The experiments we carried out illustrate how our model accounts for this specific information, as well as the fact that the model benefits from considering them. We underline that these features allow richer HCS data analysis than simpler methods based on single cellular feature values averaged over each well. We validate an HCS data analysis method based on control experiments. It accounts for HCS specificities that were not taken into account by previous methods but have a sound biological meaning. Biological validation of previously unknown outputs of the method constitutes a future line of work.

  5. Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-11-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

  6. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  7. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  8. An Overview of the Object Protocol Model (OPM) and the OPM Data Management Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-Min A.; Markowitz, Victor M.

    1995-01-01

    Discussion of database management tools for scientific information focuses on the Object Protocol Model (OPM) and data management tools based on OPM. Topics include the need for new constructs for modeling scientific experiments, modeling object structures and experiments in OPM, queries and updates, and developing scientific database applications…

  9. Modeling techniques for predicting long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Winkle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Appropriate modeling techniques already exist for investigating some long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems, even if to date these techniques have not been used for this purpose. At the low levels of irradiation estimated to occur in natural aquatic systems, effects are difficult to detect at even the individual level much less the population or ecosystem level where the subtle effects of radiation are likely to be completely overshadowed by the effects of other environmental factors and stresses and the natural variability of the system. The claim that population and ecosystem models can be accurate and reliable predictive tools in assessing any stress has been oversold. Nonetheless, the use of these tools can be useful for learning more about the effects of radioactive releases on aquatic populations and ecosystems

  10. A Modeling Tool for Household Biogas Burner Flame Port Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Thomas J.

    Anaerobic digestion is a well-known and potentially beneficial process for rural communities in emerging markets, providing the opportunity to generate usable gaseous fuel from agricultural waste. With recent developments in low-cost digestion technology, communities across the world are gaining affordable access to the benefits of anaerobic digestion derived biogas. For example, biogas can displace conventional cooking fuels such as biomass (wood, charcoal, dung) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), effectively reducing harmful emissions and fuel cost respectively. To support the ongoing scaling effort of biogas in rural communities, this study has developed and tested a design tool aimed at optimizing flame port geometry for household biogas-fired burners. The tool consists of a multi-component simulation that incorporates three-dimensional CAD designs with simulated chemical kinetics and computational fluid dynamics. An array of circular and rectangular port designs was developed for a widely available biogas stove (called the Lotus) as part of this study. These port designs were created through guidance from previous studies found in the literature. The three highest performing designs identified by the tool were manufactured and tested experimentally to validate tool output and to compare against the original port geometry. The experimental results aligned with the tool's prediction for the three chosen designs. Each design demonstrated improved thermal efficiency relative to the original, with one configuration of circular ports exhibiting superior performance. The results of the study indicated that designing for a targeted range of port hydraulic diameter, velocity and mixture density in the tool is a relevant way to improve the thermal efficiency of a biogas burner. Conversely, the emissions predictions made by the tool were found to be unreliable and incongruent with laboratory experiments.

  11. Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masami Fujiwara

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used

  12. Hypersonic Control Modeling and Simulation Tool for Lifting Towed Ballutes, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Aerospace Corporation proposes to develop a hypersonic control modeling and simulation tool for hypersonic aeroassist vehicles. Our control and simulation...

  13. Mussel dynamics model: A hydroinformatics tool for analyzing the effects of different stressors on the dynamics of freshwater mussel communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Y.; Weber, L.J.; Mynett, A.E.; Newton, T.J.

    2006-01-01

    A model for simulating freshwater mussel population dynamics is presented. The model is a hydroinformatics tool that integrates principles from ecology, river hydraulics, fluid mechanics and sediment transport, and applies the individual-based modelling approach for simulating population dynamics. The general model layout, data requirements, and steps of the simulation process are discussed. As an illustration, simulation results from an application in a 10 km reach of the Upper Mississippi River are presented. The model was used to investigate the spatial distribution of mussels and the effects of food competition in native unionid mussel communities, and communities infested by Dreissena polymorpha, the zebra mussel. Simulation results were found to be realistic and coincided with data obtained from the literature. These results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of different stressors on long-term population dynamics, and consequently, may improve the current understanding of cause and effect relationships in freshwater mussel communities. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Multimedia Informed Consent Tool for a Low Literacy African Research Population: Development and Pilot-Testing

    OpenAIRE

    Afolabi, Muhammed Olanrewaju; Bojang, Kalifa; D’Alessandro, Umberto; Imoukhuede, Egeruan Babatunde; Ravinetto, Raffaella; Larson, Heidi Jane; McGrath, Nuala; Chandramohan, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Background International guidelines recommend the use of appropriate informed consent procedures in low literacy research settings because written information is not known to guarantee comprehension of study information. Objectives This study developed and evaluated a multimedia informed consent tool for people with low literacy in an area where a malaria treatment trial was being planned in The Gambia. Methods We developed the informed consent document of the malaria treatment trial into a m...

  15. A population MRI brain template and analysis tools for the macaque.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidlitz, Jakob; Sponheim, Caleb; Glen, Daniel; Ye, Frank Q; Saleem, Kadharbatcha S; Leopold, David A; Ungerleider, Leslie; Messinger, Adam

    2018-04-15

    The use of standard anatomical templates is common in human neuroimaging, as it facilitates data analysis and comparison across subjects and studies. For non-human primates, previous in vivo templates have lacked sufficient contrast to reliably validate known anatomical brain regions and have not provided tools for automated single-subject processing. Here we present the "National Institute of Mental Health Macaque Template", or NMT for short. The NMT is a high-resolution in vivo MRI template of the average macaque brain generated from 31 subjects, as well as a neuroimaging tool for improved data analysis and visualization. From the NMT volume, we generated maps of tissue segmentation and cortical thickness. Surface reconstructions and transformations to previously published digital brain atlases are also provided. We further provide an analysis pipeline using the NMT that automates and standardizes the time-consuming processes of brain extraction, tissue segmentation, and morphometric feature estimation for anatomical scans of individual subjects. The NMT and associated tools thus provide a common platform for precise single-subject data analysis and for characterizations of neuroimaging results across subjects and studies. Copyright © 2017 ElsevierCompany. All rights reserved.

  16. Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

  17. Modelling Machine Tools using Structure Integrated Sensors for Fast Calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Montavon

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of the relative deviation between commanded and actual tool tip position, which limits the volumetric performance of the machine tool, enables the use of contemporary methods of compensation to reduce tolerance mismatch and the uncertainties of on-machine measurements. The development of a primarily optical sensor setup capable of being integrated into the machine structure without limiting its operating range is presented. The use of a frequency-modulating interferometer and photosensitive arrays in combination with a Gaussian laser beam allows for fast and automated online measurements of the axes’ motion errors and thermal conditions with comparable accuracy, lower cost, and smaller dimensions as compared to state-of-the-art optical measuring instruments for offline machine tool calibration. The development is tested through simulation of the sensor setup based on raytracing and Monte-Carlo techniques.

  18. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  19. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  20. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  1. Preventing Noise-Induced Extinction in Discrete Population Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Bashkirtseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A problem of the analysis and prevention of noise-induced extinction in nonlinear population models is considered. For the solution of this problem, we suggest a general approach based on the stochastic sensitivity analysis. To prevent the noise-induced extinction, we construct feedback regulators which provide a low stochastic sensitivity and keep the system close to the safe equilibrium regime. For the demonstration of this approach, we apply our mathematical technique to the conceptual but quite representative Ricker-type models. A variant of the Ricker model with delay is studied along with the classic widely used one-dimensional system.

  2. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Defense of single-factor models of population regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamarin, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    I reject a multifactorial approach to the study of the regulation of animal populations for two reasons. First, a mechanism suggested by Chitty, that has natural selection at its base, has not been adequately tested. Second, the multifactorial model suggested by Lidicker is untestable because of its vagueness. As a middle ground, I suggest a model that has natural selection as its mechanism, but is multifacturial because it allows many parameters to be the selective agents. I particularly emphasize prediction and selective dispersal. Methods to test this model are suggested

  4. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

    2014-02-01

    State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

  5. Model for teaching population health and community-based care across diverse clinical experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Elizabeth J; Valentine-Maher, Sarah K; Tracy, Janet P

    2015-02-01

    The pillars constructivist model is designed to offer a unifying clinical paradigm to support consistent learning opportunities across diverse configurations of community and public health clinical sites. Thirty-six students and six faculty members participated in a mixed methods evaluation to assess the model after its inaugural semester of implementation. The evaluation methods included a rating scale that measures the model's ability to provide consistent learning opportunities at both population health and direct care sites, a case study to measure student growth within the five conceptual pillars, and a faculty focus group. Results revealed that the model served as an effective means of clinical education to support the use of multiple, small-scale public health sites. Although measurements of student growth within the pillars are inconclusive, the findings suggest efficacy. The authors recommend the continued use of the pillars constructivist model in baccalaureate programs, with further study of the author-designed evaluation tools. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  6. Artificial neural network models for prediction of cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in general Chinese population

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P < 0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963

  7. Genomic tools for evolution and conservation in the chimpanzee: Pan troglodytes ellioti is a genetically distinct population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory Bowden

    Full Text Available In spite of its evolutionary significance and conservation importance, the population structure of the common chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes, is still poorly understood. An issue of particular controversy is whether the proposed fourth subspecies of chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes ellioti, from parts of Nigeria and Cameroon, is genetically distinct. Although modern high-throughput SNP genotyping has had a major impact on our understanding of human population structure and demographic history, its application to ecological, demographic, or conservation questions in non-human species has been extremely limited. Here we apply these tools to chimpanzee population structure, using ∼700 autosomal SNPs derived from chimpanzee genomic data and a further ∼100 SNPs from targeted re-sequencing. We demonstrate conclusively the existence of P. t. ellioti as a genetically distinct subgroup. We show that there is clear differentiation between the verus, troglodytes, and ellioti populations at the SNP and haplotype level, on a scale that is greater than that separating continental human populations. Further, we show that only a small set of SNPs (10-20 is needed to successfully assign individuals to these populations. Tellingly, use of only mitochondrial DNA variation to classify individuals is erroneous in 4 of 54 cases, reinforcing the dangers of basing demographic inference on a single locus and implying that the demographic history of the species is more complicated than that suggested analyses based solely on mtDNA. In this study we demonstrate the feasibility of developing economical and robust tests of individual chimpanzee origin as well as in-depth studies of population structure. These findings have important implications for conservation strategies and our understanding of the evolution of chimpanzees. They also act as a proof-of-principle for the use of cheap high-throughput genomic methods for ecological questions.

  8. Overcoming language and cultural barriers: a graphical communication tool to perform a parasitological screening in two vulnerable populations from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyayisqui, María Pía; Bordoni, Noemí; Garbossa, Graciela

    2013-01-01

    This is an exploratory study of the application of a support tool for the detection of asymptomatic subjects carrying enteric parasites in two vulnerable populations in Argentina: a shantytown in the city of Buenos Aires and a rural Wichí indigenous community in the province of Chaco. The ethnic and cultural diversity, high illiteracy rate, and language barriers called for the development of an auxiliary resource to explain stool sample collection procedures. In individual interviews with each family, the authors used two instructional guidance leaflets in comic strip format depicting the procedures. They evaluated the acceptance of the graphical communication tool on the basis of the number of retrieved samples. Percentages of respondent families were 72.2% and 66.7%, respectively. Definitive validation of these instruments would allow their use in community studies, community service learning experiences, and research on aboriginal communities that would otherwise be excluded from studies on health status.

  9. MOVES - A tool for Modeling and Verification of Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellebæk, Jens; Knudsen, Kristian S.; Brekling, Aske Wiid

    2007-01-01

    We demonstrate MOVES, a tool which allows designers of embedded systems to explore possible implementations early in the design process. The demonstration of MOVES will show how designers can explore different designs by changing the mapping of tasks on processing elements, the number and/or spee...... of processing elements, the size of local memories, and the operating systems (scheduling algorithm)....

  10. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susannah B. Lerman; Keith H. Nislow; David J. Nowak; Stephen DeStefano; David I. King; D. Todd. Jones-Farrand

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat...

  11. Correction tool for Active Shape Model based lumbar muscle segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Waldo; Ferguson, Stephen J; Ignasiak, Dominika; Diserens, Gaelle; Vermathen, Peter; Boesch, Chris; Reyes, Mauricio

    2015-08-01

    In the clinical environment, accuracy and speed of the image segmentation process plays a key role in the analysis of pathological regions. Despite advances in anatomic image segmentation, time-effective correction tools are commonly needed to improve segmentation results. Therefore, these tools must provide faster corrections with a low number of interactions, and a user-independent solution. In this work we present a new interactive correction method for correcting the image segmentation. Given an initial segmentation and the original image, our tool provides a 2D/3D environment, that enables 3D shape correction through simple 2D interactions. Our scheme is based on direct manipulation of free form deformation adapted to a 2D environment. This approach enables an intuitive and natural correction of 3D segmentation results. The developed method has been implemented into a software tool and has been evaluated for the task of lumbar muscle segmentation from Magnetic Resonance Images. Experimental results show that full segmentation correction could be performed within an average correction time of 6±4 minutes and an average of 68±37 number of interactions, while maintaining the quality of the final segmentation result within an average Dice coefficient of 0.92±0.03.

  12. Advanced Computing Tools and Models for Accelerator Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryne, Robert; Ryne, Robert D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on a transcript of my EPAC'08 presentation on advanced computing tools for accelerator physics. Following an introduction I present several examples, provide a history of the development of beam dynamics capabilities, and conclude with thoughts on the future of large scale computing in accelerator physics

  13. Tool-Body Assimilation Model Based on Body Babbling and Neurodynamical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuniyuki Takahashi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose the new method of tool use with a tool-body assimilation model based on body babbling and a neurodynamical system for robots to use tools. Almost all existing studies for robots to use tools require predetermined motions and tool features; the motion patterns are limited and the robots cannot use novel tools. Other studies fully search for all available parameters for novel tools, but this leads to massive amounts of calculations. To solve these problems, we took the following approach: we used a humanoid robot model to generate random motions based on human body babbling. These rich motion experiences were used to train recurrent and deep neural networks for modeling a body image. Tool features were self-organized in parametric bias, modulating the body image according to the tool in use. Finally, we designed a neural network for the robot to generate motion only from the target image. Experiments were conducted with multiple tools for manipulating a cylindrical target object. The results show that the tool-body assimilation model is capable of motion generation.

  14. Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

    2010-01-01

    Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased

  15. ISSR markers as a tool to distinguish Idt and SSS populations of Zea mays L

    OpenAIRE

    TIAROVSKÁ, Jana; SENKOVÁ, Slavomíra; BEŽO, Milan; RAŽNÁ, Katarína; MASNICA, Miloslav; LABAJOVÁ, Mária

    2013-01-01

    Maintaining genetic diversity for crop improvement and improving the quality of genetic resource management is both an inevitable part of nowadays maize breeding. ISSR markers brings the potential of finding a marker system to discriminate Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic and Iodent Reid populations of Zea mays, L. and on the base on coefficients of genetic distance and UPGMA grouping appropriate maize genotypes for the best potential for hybridization can be selected. The work presents the potenti...

  16. A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    A stochastic, stage-based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four separate regions of Florida. This population model includes annual variability in survival and reproductive rates, demographic stochasticity, effects of changes in warm-water capacity, and catastrophes. Further, the model explicitly accounts for uncertainty in parameter estimates. This model is meant to serve as a flexible tool for use in assessments relevant to management decision making, and was used in the State of Florida's recent biological status review. The parameter estimates and model structure described herein reflect our understanding of manatee demography at the time that this status review was completed. In the Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions, the model predicts that the populations will increase over time until warm-water capacity is reached, at which point growth will taper off. In the Atlantic region, the model predicts a stable or slightly increasing population over the next decade or so, and then a decrease as industrial warm-water capacity is lost. In the Southwest region, the model predicts a decline over time, driven by high annual mortality in the short-term and exacerbated by loss of industrial warm-water winter refuges over the next 40 years. Statewide, the likelihood of a 50% or greater decline in three manatee generations was 12%; the likelihood of a 20% or greater decline in two generations was 56%. These declines are largely driven by the anticipated loss of warm-water capacity, especially in the Atlantic and Southwest regions. The estimates of probability of extinction within 100 years were 11.9% for the Southwest region, 0.6% for the Northwest, 0.04% for the Atlantic, and population will fall below 1000 animals within 100 years was 2.3%. Thus, while the estimated probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging

  17. The Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT) in the Dutch population with and without complaints of ankle instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuurberg, Gwendolyn; Kluit, Lana; van Dijk, C Niek

    2018-03-01

    To develop a translated Dutch version of the Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT) and test its psychometric properties in a Dutch population with foot and ankle complaints. The CAIT was translated into the Dutch language using a forward-backward translation design. Of the 130 subsequent patients visiting the outpatient clinic for foot and ankle complaints who were asked to fill out a questionnaire containing the CAIT, the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score (FAOS), and the numeric rating scale (NRS) pain, 98 completed the questionnaire. After a 1-week period, patients were asked to fill out a second questionnaire online containing the CAIT and NRS pain. This second questionnaire was completed by 70 patients. With these data, the construct validity, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, measurement error, and ceiling and floor effects were assessed. Additionally, a cut-off value to discriminate between stable and unstable ankles, in patients with ankle complaints, was calculated. Construct validity showed moderate correlations between the CAIT and FAOS subscales (Spearman's correlation coefficient (SCC) = 0.36-0.43), and the NRS pain (SCC = -0.55). The cut-off value was found at 11.5 points of the total CAIT score (range 0-30). Test-retest reliability showed to be excellent with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94. Internal consistency was high (Cronbach's α = 0.86). No ceiling or floor effects were detected. Based on the results, the Dutch version of the CAIT is a valid and reliable questionnaire to assess ankle instability in the Dutch population and is able to differentiate between a functionally unstable and stable ankle. The tool is the first suitable tool to objectify the severity of ankle instability specific complaints and assess change in the Dutch population. Level of evidence II.

  18. The Qatar genome: a population-specific tool for precision medicine in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhro, Khalid A; Staudt, Michelle R; Ramstetter, Monica Denise; Robay, Amal; Malek, Joel A; Badii, Ramin; Al-Marri, Ajayeb Al-Nabet; Khalil, Charbel Abi; Al-Shakaki, Alya; Chidiac, Omar; Stadler, Dora; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Salit, Jacqueline; Mezey, Jason G; Crystal, Ronald G; Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L

    2016-01-01

    Reaching the full potential of precision medicine depends on the quality of personalized genome interpretation. In order to facilitate precision medicine in regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a population-specific genome for the indigenous Arab population of Qatar (QTRG) was constructed by incorporating allele frequency data from sequencing of 1,161 Qataris, representing 0.4% of the population. A total of 20.9 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 3.1 million indels were observed in Qatar, including an average of 1.79% novel variants per individual genome. Replacement of the GRCh37 standard reference with QTRG in a best practices genome analysis workflow resulted in an average of 7* deeper coverage depth (an improvement of 23%) and 756,671 fewer variants on average, a reduction of 16% that is attributed to common Qatari alleles being present in QTRG. The benefit for using QTRG varies across ancestries, a factor that should be taken into consideration when selecting an appropriate reference for analysis. PMID:27408750

  19. Applicability of western chemical dietary exposure models to the Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shizhen; Price, Oliver; Liu, Zhengtao; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-07-01

    A range of exposure models, which have been developed in Europe and North America, are playing an increasingly important role in priority setting and the risk assessment of chemicals. However, the applicability of these tools, which are based on Western dietary exposure pathways, to estimate chemical exposure to the Chinese population to support the development of a risk-based environment and exposure assessment, is unclear. Three frequently used modelling tools, EUSES, RAIDAR and ACC-HUMANsteady, have been evaluated in terms of human dietary exposure estimation by application to a range of chemicals with different physicochemical properties under both model default and Chinese dietary scenarios. Hence, the modelling approaches were assessed by considering dietary pattern differences only. The predicted dietary exposure pathways were compared under both scenarios using a range of hypothetical and current emerging contaminants. Although the differences across models are greater than those between dietary scenarios, model predictions indicated that dietary preference can have a significant impact on human exposure, with the relatively high consumption of vegetables and cereals resulting in higher exposure via plants-based foodstuffs under Chinese consumption patterns compared to Western diets. The selected models demonstrated a good ability to identify key dietary exposure pathways which can be used for screening purposes and an evaluative risk assessment. However, some model adaptations will be required to cover a number of important Chinese exposure pathways, such as freshwater farmed-fish, grains and pork. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Modeling Tools: Integration of Advanced Sediment Transport Tools into HEC-RAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    sediment transport within the USACE HEC River Analysis System ( HEC - RAS ) software package and to determine its applicability to Regional Sediment...Management (RSM) challenges. HEC - RAS SEDIMENT MODELING BACKGROUND: HEC - RAS performs (1) one- dimensional (1D) steady and unsteady hydraulic river ...Albuquerque (SPA)), and recently, the USACE RSM Program. HEC - RAS is one of several hydraulic modeling codes available for river analysis in the

  1. Assessment of wear dependence parameters in complex model of cutting tool wear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antsev, A. V.; Pasko, N. I.; Antseva, N. V.

    2018-03-01

    This paper addresses wear dependence of the generic efficient life period of cutting tools taken as an aggregate of the law of tool wear rate distribution and dependence of parameters of this law's on the cutting mode, factoring in the random factor as exemplified by the complex model of wear. The complex model of wear takes into account the variance of cutting properties within one batch of tools, variance in machinability within one batch of workpieces, and the stochastic nature of the wear process itself. A technique of assessment of wear dependence parameters in a complex model of cutting tool wear is provided. The technique is supported by a numerical example.

  2. Transgenic tools to characterize neuronal properties of discrete populations of zebrafish neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satou, Chie; Kimura, Yukiko; Hirata, Hiromi; Suster, Maximiliano L; Kawakami, Koichi; Higashijima, Shin-ichi

    2013-09-01

    The developing nervous system consists of a variety of cell types. Transgenic animals expressing reporter genes in specific classes of neuronal cells are powerful tools for the study of neuronal network formation. We generated a wide variety of transgenic zebrafish that expressed reporter genes in specific classes of neurons or neuronal progenitors. These include lines in which neurons of specific neurotransmitter phenotypes expressed fluorescent proteins or Gal4, and lines in which specific subsets of the dorsal progenitor domain in the spinal cord expressed fluorescent proteins. Using these, we examined domain organization in the developing dorsal spinal cord, and found that there are six progenitor domains in zebrafish, which is similar to the domain organization in mice. We also systematically characterized neurotransmitter properties of the neurons that are produced from each domain. Given that reporter gene expressions occurs in a wide area of the nervous system in the lines generated, these transgenic fish should serve as powerful tools for the investigation of not only the neurons in the dorsal spinal cord but also neuronal structures and functions in many other regions of the nervous system.

  3. GEOQUIMICO : an interactive tool for comparing sorption conceptual models (surface complexation modeling versus K[D])

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, Glenn E.; Cygan, Randall Timothy

    2007-01-01

    Within reactive geochemical transport, several conceptual models exist for simulating sorption processes in the subsurface. Historically, the K D approach has been the method of choice due to ease of implementation within a reactive transport model and straightforward comparison with experimental data. However, for modeling complex sorption phenomenon (e.g. sorption of radionuclides onto mineral surfaces), this approach does not systematically account for variations in location, time, or chemical conditions, and more sophisticated methods such as a surface complexation model (SCM) must be utilized. It is critical to determine which conceptual model to use; that is, when the material variation becomes important to regulatory decisions. The geochemical transport tool GEOQUIMICO has been developed to assist in this decision-making process. GEOQUIMICO provides a user-friendly framework for comparing the accuracy and performance of sorption conceptual models. The model currently supports the K D and SCM conceptual models. The code is written in the object-oriented Java programming language to facilitate model development and improve code portability. The basic theory underlying geochemical transport and the sorption conceptual models noted above is presented in this report. Explanations are provided of how these physicochemical processes are instrumented in GEOQUIMICO and a brief verification study comparing GEOQUIMICO results to data found in the literature is given

  4. Population Synthesis Models for Normal Galaxies with Dusty Disks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung-Won Suh

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the SEDs of galaxies considering the dust extinction processes in the galactic disks, we present the population synthesis models for normal galaxies with dusty disks. We use PEGASE (Fioc & Rocca-Volmerange 1997 to model them with standard input parameters for stars and new dust parameters. We find that the model results are strongly dependent on the dust parameters as well as other parameters (e.g. star formation history. We compare the model results with the observations and discuss about the possible explanations. We find that the dust opacity functions derived from studies of asymptotic giant branch stars are useful for modeling a galaxy with a dusty disk.

  5. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  6. A unified tool for performance modelling and prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilmore, Stephen; Kloul, Leila

    2005-01-01

    We describe a novel performability modelling approach, which facilitates the efficient solution of performance models extracted from high-level descriptions of systems. The notation which we use for our high-level designs is the Unified Modelling Language (UML) graphical modelling language. The technology which provides the efficient representation capability for the underlying performance model is the multi-terminal binary decision diagram (MTBDD)-based PRISM probabilistic model checker. The UML models are compiled through an intermediate language, the stochastic process algebra PEPA, before translation into MTBDDs for solution. We illustrate our approach on a real-world analysis problem from the domain of mobile telephony

  7. Population densities of excited atomic hydrogen as diagnostic tool to study an RF hydrogen discharge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Donker, M.N.; Jedrzejczyk, D.; Klomfass, J.; Hartgers, A.; Kessels, W.M.M.; Sanden, van de M.C.M.; Rech, B.; Veldhuizen, van E.M.

    2005-01-01

    The at. state distribution function (ASDF) of hydrogen was numerically modeled as a function of electron d., electron temp. and neutral d., by means of a collisional-radiative modeling code. Two limiting cases regarding the hydrogen dissocn. degree were considered, namely 0% and 100% dissocn.

  8. Customer Data Analysis Model using Business Intelligence Tools in Telecommunication Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica LIA

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a customer data analysis model in a telecommunication company and business intelligence tools for data modelling, transforming, data visualization and dynamic reports building . For a mature market, knowing the information inside the data and making forecast for strategic decision become more important in Romanian Market. Business Intelligence tools are used in business organization as support for decision making.

  9. A Decision Support Model and Tool to Assist Financial Decision-Making in Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhayat, Imtiaz; Manuguerra, Maurizio; Baldock, Clive

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model and tool is proposed to assist universities and other mission-based organisations to ascertain systematically the optimal portfolio of projects, in any year, meeting the organisations risk tolerances and available funds. The model and tool presented build on previous work on university operations and decision support systems…

  10. Transformation of UML models to CSP : a case study for graph transformation tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varró, D.; Asztalos, M.; Bisztray, D.; Boronat, A.; Dang, D.; Geiß, R.; Greenyer, J.; Van Gorp, P.M.E.; Kniemeyer, O.; Narayanan, A.; Rencis, E.; Weinell, E.; Schürr, A.; Nagl, M.; Zündorf, A.

    2008-01-01

    Graph transformation provides an intuitive mechanism for capturing model transformations. In the current paper, we investigate and compare various graph transformation tools using a compact practical model transformation case study carried out as part of the AGTIVE 2007 Tool Contest [22]. The aim of

  11. Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) v1.4.0: A tool for intercomparing models and observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Watson-Parris, Duncan; Schutgens, Nick; Cook, Nicholas; Kipling, Zak; Kershaw, Philip; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Lawrence, Bryan; Stier, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) is an easy-to-use command-line tool which has been developed to allow the straightforward intercomparison of remote sensing, in-situ and model data. While there are a number of tools available for working with climate model data, the large diversity of

  12. Formal Development of a Tool for Automated Modelling and Verification of Relay Interlocking Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Kjær, Andreas A.; Le Bliguet, Marie

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a tool for formal modelling relay interlocking systems and explains how it has been stepwise, formally developed using the RAISE method. The developed tool takes the circuit diagrams of a relay interlocking system as input and gives as result a state transition system modelling...

  13. Teachers' Use of Computational Tools to Construct and Explore Dynamic Mathematical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Trigo, Manuel; Reyes-Rodriguez, Aaron

    2011-01-01

    To what extent does the use of computational tools offer teachers the possibility of constructing dynamic models to identify and explore diverse mathematical relations? What ways of reasoning or thinking about the problems emerge during the model construction process that involves the use of the tools? These research questions guided the…

  14. A GIS Tool for evaluating and improving NEXRAD and its application in distributed hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Srinivasan, R.

    2008-12-01

    In this study, a user friendly GIS tool was developed for evaluating and improving NEXRAD using raingauge data. This GIS tool can automatically read in raingauge and NEXRAD data, evaluate the accuracy of NEXRAD for each time unit, implement several geostatistical methods to improve the accuracy of NEXRAD through raingauge data, and output spatial precipitation map for distributed hydrologic model. The geostatistical methods incorporated in this tool include Simple Kriging with varying local means, Kriging with External Drift, Regression Kriging, Co-Kriging, and a new geostatistical method that was newly developed by Li et al. (2008). This tool was applied in two test watersheds at hourly and daily temporal scale. The preliminary cross-validation results show that incorporating raingauge data to calibrate NEXRAD can pronouncedly change the spatial pattern of NEXRAD and improve its accuracy. Using different geostatistical methods, the GIS tool was applied to produce long term precipitation input for a distributed hydrologic model - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Animated video was generated to vividly illustrate the effect of using different precipitation input data on distributed hydrologic modeling. Currently, this GIS tool is developed as an extension of SWAT, which is used as water quantity and quality modeling tool by USDA and EPA. The flexible module based design of this tool also makes it easy to be adapted for other hydrologic models for hydrological modeling and water resources management.

  15. Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

    2015-01-01

    harvest in one management unit may affect population growth in neighboring units where smaller or even no changes were made. Uncertainty regarding dispersal levels and initial population density may have a significant effect on predictions at a management unit scale (i.e. 2000 km2), while at a regional scale (i.e. 50,000 km2) large differences in initial population density result in relatively small changes in population growth rate, and uncertainty about dispersal may not be as influential. Doubling the presumed initial density from a low estimation of 2.19 total animals per 100 km2 resulted in a difference in annual population growth rate of only 2.6% statewide when compared to high density of 4.04 total animals per 100 km2 (low initial population estimate λ = 0.99, while high initial population estimate λ = 1.03). We suggest modeling tools such as this may be useful in harvest planning at a regional and statewide level.

  16. Numerical modelling of structure and mechanical properties for medical tools

    OpenAIRE

    L. Jeziorski; J. Jasinski; M. Lubas; M. Szota; P. Lacki; B. Stodolnika

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: In order to design forceps and bowl cutter property, it is necessary to optimise many parameters and consider the functions, which these medical tools should fulfil. Of course, some simplifications are necessary in respect of calculation methodology. In the paper a solution procedure concerning this problem has been presented. The presented solution allows for precise determination of the geometrical dimensions according to the functional requirements that forceps should fulfil. The ...

  17. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee

  18. Validation of a Dietary Screening Tool in a Middle-Aged Appalachian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Ventura Marra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Proactive nutrition screening is an effective public health strategy for identifying and targeting individuals who could benefit from making dietary improvements for primary and secondary prevention of disease. The Dietary Screening Tool (DST was developed and validated to assess nutritional risk among rural older adults. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility and validity of the DST to identify nutritional risk in middle-aged adults. This cross-sectional study in middle-aged adults (45–64 year olds, n = 87 who reside in Appalachia, examined nutritional status using an online health survey, biochemical measures, anthropometry, and three representative 24-h dietary recalls. The Healthy Eating Index (HEI was calculated to describe overall diet quality. Adults identified by the DST with a nutrition risk had lower HEI scores (50 vs. 64, p < 0.001 and were much more likely to also be considered at dietary risk by the HEI (OR 11.6; 3.2–42.6 when compared to those not at risk. Those at risk had higher energy-adjusted total fat, saturated fat, and added sugar intakes and lower intakes of dietary fiber, and several micronutrients than those classified as not at risk by the DST. Similarly, the at-risk group had significantly lower serum levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, cryptoxanthin, lutein, and zeaxanthin but did not differ in retinol or methylmalonic acid compared with those not at risk. The DST is a valid tool to identify middle-aged adults with nutritional risk.

  19. Solid-state-drives (SSDs) modeling simulation tools & strategies

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces simulation tools and strategies for complex systems of solid-state-drives (SSDs) which consist of a flash multi-core microcontroller plus NAND flash memories. It provides a broad overview of the most popular simulation tools, with special focus on open source solutions. VSSIM, NANDFlashSim and DiskSim are benchmarked against performances of real SSDs under different traffic workloads. PROs and CONs of each simulator are analyzed, and it is clearly indicated which kind of answers each of them can give and at a what price. It is explained, that speed and precision do not go hand in hand, and it is important to understand when to simulate what, and with which tool. Being able to simulate SSD’s performances is mandatory to meet time-to-market, together with product cost and quality. Over the last few years the authors developed an advanced simulator named “SSDExplorer” which has been used to evaluate multiple phenomena with great accuracy, from QoS (Quality Of Service) to Read Retry, fr...

  20. Combining SLBL routine with landslide-generated tsunami model for a quick hazard assessment tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Martin; Rudaz, Benjamin; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Podladchikov, Yury

    2016-04-01

    Regions with steep topography are potentially subject to landslide-induced tsunami, because of the proximity between lakes, rivers, sea shores and potential instabilities. The concentration of the population and infrastructures on the water body shores and downstream valleys could lead to catastrophic consequences. In order to assess comprehensively this phenomenon together with the induced risks, we have developed a tool which allows the construction of the landslide geometry, and which is able to simulate its propagation, the generation and the propagation of the wave and eventually the spread on the shores or the associated downstream flow. The tool is developed in the Matlab© environment, with a graphical user interface (GUI) to select the parameters in a user-friendly manner. The whole process is done in three steps implying different methods. Firstly, the geometry of the sliding mass is constructed using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) concept. Secondly, the propagation of this volume is performed using a model based on viscous flow equations. Finally, the wave generation and its propagation are simulated using the shallow water equations stabilized by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme. The transition between wet and dry bed is performed by the combination of the two latter sets of equations. The intensity map is based on the criterion of flooding in Switzerland provided by the OFEG and results from the multiplication of the velocity and the depth obtained during the simulation. The tool can be used for hazard assessment in the case of well-known landslides, where the SLBL routine can be constrained and checked for realistic construction of the geometrical model. In less-known cases, various failure plane geometries can be automatically built between given range and thus a multi-scenario approach is used. In any case, less-known parameters such as the landslide velocity, its run-out distance, etc. can also be set to vary within given ranges, leading to multi

  1. Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-10-11

    The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

  2. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  3. Agile Model Driven Development of Electronic Health Record-Based Specialty Population Registries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Vaishnavi; Fish, Jason C.; Willett, DuWayne L.

    2018-01-01

    The transformation of the American healthcare payment system from fee-for-service to value-based care increasingly makes it valuable to develop patient registries for specialized populations, to better assess healthcare quality and costs. Recent widespread adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in the U.S. now makes possible construction of EHR-based specialty registry data collection tools and reports, previously unfeasible using manual chart abstraction. But the complexities of specialty registry EHR tools and measures, along with the variety of stakeholders involved, can result in misunderstood requirements and frequent product change requests, as users first experience the tools in their actual clinical workflows. Such requirements churn could easily stall progress in specialty registry rollout. Modeling a system’s requirements and solution design can be a powerful way to remove ambiguities, facilitate shared understanding, and help evolve a design to meet newly-discovered needs. “Agile Modeling” retains these values while avoiding excessive unused up-front modeling in favor of iterative incremental modeling. Using Agile Modeling principles and practices, in calendar year 2015 one institution developed 58 EHR-based specialty registries, with 111 new data collection tools, supporting 134 clinical process and outcome measures, and enrolling over 16,000 patients. The subset of UML and non-UML models found most consistently useful in designing, building, and iteratively evolving EHR-based specialty registries included User Stories, Domain Models, Use Case Diagrams, Decision Trees, Graphical User Interface Storyboards, Use Case text descriptions, and Solution Class Diagrams. PMID:29750222

  4. Requirements for UML and OWL Integration Tool for User Data Consistency Modeling and Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nytun, J. P.; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Oleshchuk, V. A.

    2003-01-01

    The amount of data available on the Internet is continuously increasing, consequentially there is a growing need for tools that help to analyse the data. Testing of consistency among data received from different sources is made difficult by the number of different languages and schemas being used....... In this paper we analyze requirements for a tool that support integration of UML models and ontologies written in languages like the W3C Web Ontology Language (OWL). The tool can be used in the following way: after loading two legacy models into the tool, the tool user connects them by inserting modeling......, an important part of this technique is attaching of OCL expressions to special boolean class attributes that we call consistency attributes. The resulting integration model can be used for automatic consistency testing of two instances of the legacy models by automatically instantiate the whole integration...

  5. Biomedical research, a tool to address the health issues that affect African populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, biomedical research endeavors in low to middle resources countries have focused on communicable diseases. However, data collected over the past 20 years by the World Health Organization (WHO) show a significant increase in the number of people suffering from non-communicable diseases (e.g. heart disease, diabetes, cancer and pulmonary diseases). Within the coming years, WHO predicts significant decreases in communicable diseases while non-communicable diseases are expected to double in low and middle income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The predicted increase in the non-communicable diseases population could be economically burdensome for the basic healthcare infrastructure of countries that lack resources to address this emerging disease burden. Biomedical research could stimulate development of healthcare and biomedical infrastructure. If this development is sustainable, it provides an opportunity to alleviate the burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases through diagnosis, prevention and treatment. In this paper, we discuss how research using biomedical technology, especially genomics, has produced data that enhances the understanding and treatment of both communicable and non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. We further discuss how scientific development can provide opportunities to pursue research areas responsive to the African populations. We limit our discussion to biomedical research in the areas of genomics due to its substantial impact on the scientific community in recent years however, we also recognize that targeted investments in other scientific disciplines could also foster further development in African countries. PMID:24143865

  6. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  8. Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-19

    Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

  9. Multiphase flow analysis using population balance modeling bubbles, drops and particles

    CERN Document Server

    Yeoh, Guan Heng; Tu, Jiyuan

    2013-01-01

    Written by leading multiphase flow and CFD experts, this book enables engineers and researchers to understand the use of PBM and CFD frameworks. Population balance approaches can now be used in conjunction with CFD, effectively driving more efficient and effective multiphase flow processes. Engineers familiar with standard CFD software, including ANSYS-CFX and ANSYS-Fluent, will be able to use the tools and approaches presented in this book in the effective research, modeling and control of multiphase flow problems. Builds a complete understanding of the theory behind the

  10. Tools and data for the geochemical modeling. Thermodynamic data for sulfur species and background salts and tools for the uncertainty analysis; WEDA. Werkzeuge und Daten fuer die Geochemische Modellierung. Thermodynamische Daten fuer Schwefelspezies und Hintergrundsalze sowie Tools zur Unsicherheitsanalyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, Sven; Schoenwiese, Dagmar; Scharge, Tina

    2015-07-15

    The report on tools and data for the geochemical modeling covers the following issues: experimental methods and theoretical models, design of a thermodynamic model for reduced sulfur species, thermodynamic models for background salts, tools for the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of geochemical equilibrium modeling.

  11. A new assessment model and tool for pediatric nurse practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, C

    1992-01-01

    This article presents a comprehensive assessment model for pediatric nurse practitioner (PNP) practice that integrates familiar elements of the classical medical history, Gordon's Functional Health Patterns, and developmental fields into one system. This model drives the diagnostic reasoning process toward consideration of a broad range of disease, daily living (nursing diagnosis), and developmental diagnoses, which represents PNP practice better than the medical model does.

  12. Process models as tools in forestry research and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt Johnsen; Lisa Samuelson; Robert Teskey; Steve McNulty; Tom Fox

    2001-01-01

    Forest process models are mathematical representations of biological systems that incorporate our understanding of physiological and ecological mechanisms into predictive algorithms. These models were originally designed and used for research purposes, but are being developed for use in practical forest management. Process models designed for research...

  13. Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

  14. Reference man models based on normal data from human populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Gi-ichiro; Kawamura, Hisao

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative description of the physical, and metabolic parameters of the human body is the very basic for internal dosimetry. Compilation of anatomical and other types of data Asian populations for internal (and external) dosimetry is of grate significance because of the potential spread of nuclear energy use in the Asian region and the major contribution of the region to the world population (about 58%). It has been observed that some differences exist for habitat, race, body sizes and pattern of food consumption. In the early stage of revision of ICRP Reference man by the Task Group, Characteristics of the human body of non-European populations received considerable attention as well as those of the European populations of different sexes and ages. In this context, an IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program on Compilation of Anatomical, Physiological and Metabolic Characteristics for a Reference Asian Man endorsed. In later stages of reference Man revision, anatomical data for Asians was discusses together with those of European populations, presumably due to ICRP's decision of unanimous use of the Reference Man for radiation protection. Reference man models for adults and 15, 10, 5, 1, 0 year-old males and females of Asian populations were developed for use in internal and external dosimetry. Based on the concept of ICRP Reference Man (Publication 23), the reference values were derived from the normal organ mass data for Japanese and statistical data on the physique and nutrition of Japanese and Chinese. Also incorporated were variations in physical measurements, as observed in the above mentioned IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program. The work was partly carried out within the activities of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man. The weight of the skeleton was adjusted following the revised values in Publication 70. This paper will report basic shared and non-shared characteristics of Reference Man' for Asians and ICRP Reference Man. (author)

  15. The prediction of the cavitation phenomena including population balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannari, Rachid; Hliwa, Ghizlane Zineb; Bannari, Abdelfettah; Belghiti, Mly Taib

    2017-07-01

    Cavitation is the principal reason behind the behavior's modification of the hydraulic turbines. However, the experimental observations can not be appropriate to all cases due to the limitations in the measurement techniques. The mathematical models which have been implemented, use the mixture multiphase frame. As well as, most of the published work is limited by considering a constant bubble size distribution. However, this assumption is not realist. The aim of this article is the implementation and the use of a non-homogeneous multiphase model which solve two phases transport equation. The evolution of bubble size is considered by the population balance equation. This study is based on the eulerian-eulerian model, associated to the cavitation model. All the inter-phase forces such as drag, lift and virtual mass are used.

  16. Eulerian Multiphase Population Balance Model of Atomizing, Swirling Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayana P. Rayapati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An Eulerian/Eulerian multiphase flow model coupled with a population balance model is used as the basis for numerical simulation of atomization in swirling flows. The objective of this exercise is to develop a methodology capable of predicting the local point-wise drop size distribution in a spray, such as would be measured by the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDA. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of particle size distributions in an air-blast atomizer spray to demonstrate good qualitative and quantitative agreement. It is observed that the dependence of velocity on drop size inherent in a multiphase description of the drop cloud appears necessary to capture some features of the experimental data. Using this model, we demonstrate the relative contributions of secondary atomization and transport to the variation observed in the downstream spray drop size distribution.

  17. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  18. Parameter Extraction for PSpice Models by means of an Automated Optimization Tool – An IGBT model Study Case

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suárez, Carlos Gómez; Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Iannuzzo, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    An original tool for parameter extraction of PSpice models has been released, enabling a simple parameter identification. A physics-based IGBT model is used to demonstrate that the optimization tool is capable of generating a set of parameters which predicts the steady-state and switching behavio...

  19. Analytical and Empirical Modeling of Wear and Forces of CBN Tool in Hard Turning - A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Vallabh Dahyabhai; Gandhi, Anishkumar Hasmukhlal

    2017-08-01

    Machining of steel material having hardness above 45 HRC (Hardness-Rockwell C) is referred as a hard turning. There are numerous models which should be scrutinized and implemented to gain optimum performance of hard turning. Various models in hard turning by cubic boron nitride tool have been reviewed, in attempt to utilize appropriate empirical and analytical models. Validation of steady state flank and crater wear model, Usui's wear model, forces due to oblique cutting theory, extended Lee and Shaffer's force model, chip formation and progressive flank wear have been depicted in this review paper. Effort has been made to understand the relationship between tool wear and tool force based on the different cutting conditions and tool geometries so that appropriate model can be used according to user requirement in hard turning.

  20. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

  1. Photo-identification as a simple tool for studying invasive lionfish Pterois volitans populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaves, L C T; Hall, J; Feitosa, J L L; Côté, I M

    2016-02-01

    Photo-tagging, i.e. using a specific software to match colour patterns on photographs, was tested as a means to identify individual Indo-Pacific Pterois volitans to assist with population and movement studies of this invasive species. The stripe pattern on the flank of adult P. volitans (n = 48) was the most individually distinctive of three body regions tested, leading to correct individual identification on 68 and 82% of tests with a single and two images of the reference individual, respectively. Photo-tagging is inexpensive, logistically simple and can involve citizen scientists, making it a viable alternative to traditional tagging to provide information on P. volitans distribution, movement patterns and recolonization rates after removals. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  2. Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Officer, Rick; Clarke, Maurice; Reid, David G.; Brophy, Deirdre

    2017-01-01

    Boosted Regression Trees. Excellent for data-poor spatial management but hard to use Marine resource managers and scientists often advocate spatial approaches to manage data-poor species. Existing spatial prediction and management techniques are either insufficiently robust, struggle with sparse input data, or make suboptimal use of multiple explanatory variables. Boosted Regression Trees feature excellent performance and are well suited to modelling the distribution of data-limited species, but are extremely complicated and time-consuming to learn and use, hindering access for a wide potential user base and therefore limiting uptake and usage. BRTs automated and simplified for accessible general use with rich feature set We have built a software suite in R which integrates pre-existing functions with new tailor-made functions to automate the processing and predictive mapping of species abundance data: by automating and greatly simplifying Boosted Regression Tree spatial modelling, the gbm.auto R package suite makes this powerful statistical modelling technique more accessible to potential users in the ecological and modelling communities. The package and its documentation allow the user to generate maps of predicted abundance, visualise the representativeness of those abundance maps and to plot the relative influence of explanatory variables and their relationship to the response variables. Databases of the processed model objects and a report explaining all the steps taken within the model are also generated. The package includes a previously unavailable Decision Support Tool which combines estimated escapement biomass (the percentage of an exploited population which must be retained each year to conserve it) with the predicted abundance maps to generate maps showing the location and size of habitat that should be protected to conserve the target stocks (candidate MPAs), based on stakeholder priorities, such as the minimisation of fishing effort displacement. Gbm

  3. Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Dedman

    Full Text Available Marine resource managers and scientists often advocate spatial approaches to manage data-poor species. Existing spatial prediction and management techniques are either insufficiently robust, struggle with sparse input data, or make suboptimal use of multiple explanatory variables. Boosted Regression Trees feature excellent performance and are well suited to modelling the distribution of data-limited species, but are extremely complicated and time-consuming to learn and use, hindering access for a wide potential user base and therefore limiting uptake and usage.We have built a software suite in R which integrates pre-existing functions with new tailor-made functions to automate the processing and predictive mapping of species abundance data: by automating and greatly simplifying Boosted Regression Tree spatial modelling, the gbm.auto R package suite makes this powerful statistical modelling technique more accessible to potential users in the ecological and modelling communities. The package and its documentation allow the user to generate maps of predicted abundance, visualise the representativeness of those abundance maps and to plot the relative influence of explanatory variables and their relationship to the response variables. Databases of the processed model objects and a report explaining all the steps taken within the model are also generated. The package includes a previously unavailable Decision Support Tool which combines estimated escapement biomass (the percentage of an exploited population which must be retained each year to conserve it with the predicted abundance maps to generate maps showing the location and size of habitat that should be protected to conserve the target stocks (candidate MPAs, based on stakeholder priorities, such as the minimisation of fishing effort displacement.By bridging the gap between advanced statistical methods for species distribution modelling and conservation science, management and policy, these

  4. ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.2) and User's Manual: Arcgis Tools and Datasets for Modeling US Housing Density (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft Geographic Information System (GIS) tool can be used to generate scenarios of housing-density changes and calculate impervious surface cover for the conterminous United States. A draft User’s Guide accompanies the tool. This product distributes the population project...

  5. Towards diagnostic tools for analysing Swarm data through model retrievals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kotsiaros, Stavros; Plank, Gernot; Haagmans, R.

    polar orbits between 300 and 550 km altitude. Goal of the current study is to build tools and to analyze datasets, in order to allow a fast diagnosis of the Swarm system performance in orbit during the commission phase and operations of the spacecraft. The effects on the reconstruction of the magnetic...... field resulting from various error sources are investigated. By using a specially developed software package closed loop simulations are performed aiming at different scenarios. We start from the simple noise-free case and move on to more complex and realistic situations which include attitude errors...

  6. The validity of three fall risk screening tools in an acute geriatric inpatient population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latt, Mark Dominic; Loh, K Florence; Ge, Ludi; Hepworth, Annie

    2016-09-01

    We examined the validity of the Ontario Modified STRATIFY (OM) (St Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients), The Northern Hospital Modified STRATIFY (TNH) and STRATIFY in predicting falls in an acute aged care unit. Data were collected prospectively from 217 people presenting consecutively and falls identified during hospitalisation. Sensitivities of OM (80.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 58.4 to 91.9%), TNH (85, CI 64.0 to 94.8%) and STRATIFY (80.0, CI 58.4 to 91.0%) were similar. The STRATIFY had higher specificity (61.4, CI 54.5 to 67.9%) than OM (37.1, CI 30.6 to 44.0%) and TNH (51.3, CI 44.3 to 58.2%). Accuracy (percentage of patients correctly classified as 'faller' or 'non-faller') was higher using STRATIFY (63.1, CI 56.5 to 69.3%) and TNH (54.4, CI 47.8 to 61.0%) than with OM (41.0, CI 34.7 to 47.7%, P patients at high risk of falls. © 2016 AJA Inc.

  7. Innovative data tools: a suite for managing peer outreach to key affected populations in Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nga, Nguyen Thien; Jacka, David; Van Hai, Nguyen; Trinh, Nguyen Kieu; Boisen, Neil; Neukom, Josselyn

    2012-07-01

    The paper tools used to monitor outreach work in all major cities in Viet Nam had substantial writing requirements for each contact with difficulty maintaining confidentiality. This paper describes the development of a Unique Identifier Code (UIC), a field data collection notebook (databook) and a computer data entry system in Viet Nam. The databook can document 40 individual clients and has space for commodity distribution, group contacts and needles/syringe collection for each month. Field implementation trials of the UIC and databook have been undertaken by more than 160 peer outreach workers to document their work with people who inject drugs (PWID) and sex workers (SW). Following an expanded trial in Hai Phong province, there have been requests for national circulation of the databook to be used by peer educators documenting outreach to PWID, SW and men who have sex with men. The standardized UIC and databook, in a variety of locally adapted formats, have now been introduced in more than 40 of the 63 provinces in Viet Nam. This development in Viet Nam is, to our knowledge, the first example of the combination of a confidential UIC and an innovative, simple pocket-sized paper instrument with associated customized data-entry software for documenting outreach.

  8. Fast and simple tool for the quantification of biofilm-embedded cells sub-populations from fluorescent microscopic images.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I Bogachev

    Full Text Available Fluorescent staining is a common tool for both quantitative and qualitative assessment of pro- and eukaryotic cells sub-population fractions by using microscopy and flow cytometry. However, direct cell counting by flow cytometry is often limited, for example when working with cells rigidly adhered either to each other or to external surfaces like bacterial biofilms or adherent cell lines and tissue samples. An alternative approach is provided by using fluorescent microscopy and confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM, which enables the evaluation of fractions of cells subpopulations in a given sample. For the quantitative assessment of cell fractions in microphotographs, we suggest a simple two-step algorithm that combines single cells selection and the statistical analysis. To facilitate the first step, we suggest a simple procedure that supports finding the balance between the detection threshold and the typical size of single cells based on objective cell size distribution analysis. Based on a series of experimental measurements performed on bacterial and eukaryotic cells under various conditions, we show explicitly that the suggested approach effectively accounts for the fractions of different cell sub-populations (like the live/dead staining in our samples in all studied cases that are in good agreement with manual cell counting on microphotographs and flow cytometry data. This algorithm is implemented as a simple software tool that includes an intuitive and user-friendly graphical interface for the initial adjustment of algorithm parameters to the microphotographs analysis as well as for the sequential analysis of homogeneous series of similar microscopic images without further user intervention. The software tool entitled BioFilmAnalyzer is freely available online at https://bitbucket.org/rogex/biofilmanalyzer/downloads/.

  9. DiVinE-CUDA - A Tool for GPU Accelerated LTL Model Checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Barnat

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a tool that performs CUDA accelerated LTL Model Checking. The tool exploits parallel algorithm MAP adjusted to the NVIDIA CUDA architecture in order to efficiently detect the presence of accepting cycles in a directed graph. Accepting cycle detection is the core algorithmic procedure in automata-based LTL Model Checking. We demonstrate that the tool outperforms non-accelerated version of the algorithm and we discuss where the limits of the tool are and what we intend to do in the future to avoid them.

  10. Feasibility of the music therapy assessment tool for awareness in disorders of consciousness (MATADOC) for use with pediatric populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, Wendy L.; Ghetti, Claire M.; Moyer, Alvin

    2015-01-01

    Measuring responsiveness to gain accurate diagnosis in populations with disorders of consciousness (DOC) is of central concern because these patients have such complex clinical presentations. Due to the uncertainty of accuracy for both behavioral and neurophysiological measures in DOC, combined assessment approaches are recommended. A number of standardized behavioral measures can be used with adults with DOC with minor to moderate reservations relating to the measures’ psychometric properties and clinical applicability. However, no measures have been standardized for use with pediatric DOC populations. When adapting adult measures for children, confounding factors include developmental considerations for language-based items included in all DOC measures. Given the lack of pediatric DOC measures, there is a pressing need for measures that are sensitive to the complex clinical presentations typical of DOC and that can accommodate the developmental levels of pediatric populations. The music therapy assessment tool for awareness in disorders of consciousness (MATADOC) is a music-based measure that has been standardized for adults with DOC. Given its emphasis on non-language based sensory stimuli, it is well-suited to pediatric populations spanning developmental stages. In a pre-pilot exploratory study, we examined the clinical utility of this measure and explored trends for test-retest and inter-rater agreement as well as its performance against external reference standards. In several cases, MATADOC items in the visual and auditory domains produced outcomes suggestive of higher level functioning when compared to outcomes provided by other DOC measures. Preliminary findings suggest that the MATADOC provides a useful protocol and measure for behavioral assessment and clinical treatment planning with pediatric DOC. Further research with a larger sample is warranted to test a version of the MATADOC that is refined to meet developmental needs of pediatric DOC

  11. Feasibility of the music therapy assessment tool for awareness in disorders of consciousness (MATADOC) for use with pediatric populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, Wendy L; Ghetti, Claire M; Moyer, Alvin

    2015-01-01

    Measuring responsiveness to gain accurate diagnosis in populations with disorders of consciousness (DOC) is of central concern because these patients have such complex clinical presentations. Due to the uncertainty of accuracy for both behavioral and neurophysiological measures in DOC, combined assessment approaches are recommended. A number of standardized behavioral measures can be used with adults with DOC with minor to moderate reservations relating to the measures' psychometric properties and clinical applicability. However, no measures have been standardized for use with pediatric DOC populations. When adapting adult measures for children, confounding factors include developmental considerations for language-based items included in all DOC measures. Given the lack of pediatric DOC measures, there is a pressing need for measures that are sensitive to the complex clinical presentations typical of DOC and that can accommodate the developmental levels of pediatric populations. The music therapy assessment tool for awareness in disorders of consciousness (MATADOC) is a music-based measure that has been standardized for adults with DOC. Given its emphasis on non-language based sensory stimuli, it is well-suited to pediatric populations spanning developmental stages. In a pre-pilot exploratory study, we examined the clinical utility of this measure and explored trends for test-retest and inter-rater agreement as well as its performance against external reference standards. In several cases, MATADOC items in the visual and auditory domains produced outcomes suggestive of higher level functioning when compared to outcomes provided by other DOC measures. Preliminary findings suggest that the MATADOC provides a useful protocol and measure for behavioral assessment and clinical treatment planning with pediatric DOC. Further research with a larger sample is warranted to test a version of the MATADOC that is refined to meet developmental needs of pediatric DOC populations.

  12. Feasibility of the Music Therapy Assessment Tool for Awareness in Disorders Of Consciousness (MATADOC for use with Pediatric Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy L Magee

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measuring responsiveness to gain accurate diagnosis in populations with disorders of consciousness (DOC is of central concern because these patients have such complex clinical presentations. Due to the uncertainty of accuracy for both behavioral and neurophysiological measures in DOC, combined assessment approaches are recommended. A number of standardized behavioral measures can be used with adults with DOC with minor to moderate reservations relating to the measures’ psychometric properties and clinical applicability. However, no measures have been standardized for use with pediatric DOC populations. When adapting adult measures for children, confounding factors include developmental considerations for language-based items included in all DOC measures. Given the lack of pediatric DOC measures, there is a pressing need for measures that are sensitive to the complex clinical presentations typical of DOC and that can accommodate the developmental levels of pediatric populations. The Music Therapy Assessment Tool for Awareness in Disorders of Consciousness (MATADOC is a music-based measure that has been standardized for adults with DOC. Given its emphasis on non-language based sensory stimuli, it is well-suited to pediatric populations spanning developmental stages. In a pre-pilot exploratory study, we examined the clinical utility of this measure and explored trends for test-retest and inter-rater agreement as well as its performance against external reference standards. In several cases, MATADOC items in the visual and auditory domains produced outcomes suggestive of higher level functioning when compared to outcomes provided by other DOC measures. Preliminary findings suggest that the MATADOC provides a useful protocol and measure for behavioral assessment and clinical treatment planning with pediatric DOC. Further research with a larger sample is warranted to test a version of the MATADOC that is refined to meet developmental needs of

  13. A new tool that links landscale connectivity and source-sink dynamics to population viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    The importance of connectivity and source-sink dynamics to conservation planning is widely appreciated. But the use of these concepts in practical applications such as the identification of critical habitat has been slowed because few models are designed to identify demographic s...

  14. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Jacobs

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  15. WeedML: a Tool for Collaborative Weed Demographic Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Niels

    2010-01-01

    WeedML is a proposed standard to formulate models of weed demography, or maybe even complex models in general, that are both transparent and straightforward to re-use as building blocks for new models. The paper describes the design and thoughts behind WeedML which relies on XML and object-oriented systems development. Proof-of-concept software is provided as open-source C++ code and executables that can be downloaded freely.

  16. Assessing three fish species ecological status in Colorado River, Grand Canyon based on physical habitat and population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Weiwei; Chen, Yuansheng

    2018-04-01

    Colorado River is a unique ecosystem and provides important ecological services such as habitat for fish species as well as water power energy supplies. River management for this ecosystem requires assessment and decision support tools for fish which involves protecting, restoring as well as forecasting of future conditions. In this paper, a habitat and population model was developed and used to determine the levels of fish habitat suitability and population density in Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Lake Mead. The short term target fish populations are also predicted based on native fish recovery strategy. This model has been developed by combining hydrodynamics, heat transfer and sediment transport models with a habitat suitability index model and then coupling with habitat model into life stage population model. The fish were divided into four life stages according to the fish length. Three most abundant and typical native and non-native fish were selected as target species, which are rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). Flow velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrates were used as the suitability indicators in habitat model and overall suitability index (OSI) as well as weight usable area (WUA) was used as an indicator in population model. A comparison was made between simulated fish population alteration and surveyed fish number fluctuation during 2000 to 2009. The application of this habitat and population model indicates that this model can be accurate present habitat situation and targets fish population dynamics of in the study areas. The analysis also indicates the flannelmouth sucker population will steadily increase while the rainbow trout will decrease based on the native fish recovery scheme. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. The Localized Scleroderma Cutaneous Assessment Tool: responsiveness to change in a pediatric clinical population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Christina E; Torok, Kathryn S

    2013-08-01

    Lack of agreement on how to accurately capture disease outcomes in localized scleroderma (LS) has hindered the development of efficacious treatment protocols. The LS Cutaneous Assessment Tool (LoSCAT), consisting of the modified LS Skin Severity Index (mLoSSI) and the LS Damage Index, has potential for use in clinical trials. The goal of this article is to further evaluate the clinical responsiveness of the LoSCAT. Based on the modifiable nature of disease activity versus damage, we expected the mLoSSI to be responsive to change. At 2 study visits, a physician completed the LoSCAT and Physician Global Assessment (PGA) of Disease Activity and of Disease Damage for 29 patients with LS. Spearman correlations were used to examine the relationships between the change in the LoSCAT and the PGA scores. To evaluate contrasted group validity, patients were grouped according to disease activity classification and change scores of groups were compared. Minimal clinically important differences were calculated and compared with the standard error of measurement. Change in the mLoSSI score correlated strongly with change in the PGA of Disease Activity score, whereas change in the LS Damage Index score correlated weakly with change in the PGA of Disease Damage score. The mLoSSI and PGA of Disease Activity exhibited contrasted group validity. Minimal clinically important differences for the activity measures were greater than the respective standard errors of measurement. Only 2 study visits were included in analysis. This study gives further evidence that the LoSCAT, specifically the mLoSSI, is a responsive, valid measure of activity in LS and should be used in future treatment studies. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Usability testing of a computerized communication tool in a diverse urban pediatric population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimicalis, Argerie; Stone, Patricia W; Bakken, Suzanne; Yoon, Sunmoo; Sands, Stephen; Porter, Rechelle; Ruland, Cornelia

    2014-01-01

    Developed in Norway, Sisom is an interactive, rigorously tested, computerized, communication tool designed to help children with cancer express their perceived symptoms/problems. Children travel virtually from island to island rating their symptoms/problems. While Sisom has been found to significantly improve communication in patient consultations in Norway, usability testing is warranted with US children prior to further use in research studies. The objective of this study was to determine the usability of Sisom in a sample of English- and Spanish-speaking children in an urban US community. A mixed-methods usability study was conducted with a purposive sample of healthy children and children with cancer. Semistructured interviews were used to assess healthy children's symptom recognition. Children with cancer completed 8 usability tasks captured with Morae 3.3 software. Data were downloaded, transcribed, and analyzed descriptively. Four healthy children and 8 children with cancer participated. Of the 44 symptoms assessed, healthy children recognized 15 (34%) pictorial symptoms immediately or indicated 13 (30%) pictures were good representations of the symptom. Six children with cancer completed all tasks. All children navigated successfully from one island to the next, ranking their symptom/problem severity, clicking the magnifying glass for help, or asking the researcher for assistance. All children were satisfied with the aesthetics and expressed an interest in using Sisom to communicate their symptoms/problems. A few minor suggestions for improvement and adjustment may optimize the use of Sisom for US children. Sisom may help clinicians overcome challenges assessing children's complex symptoms/problems in a child-friendly manner.

  19. Measuring couple relationship quality in a rural African population: Validation of a Couple Functionality Assessment Tool in Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison Ruark

    Full Text Available Available data suggest that individual and family well-being are linked to the quality of women's and men's couple relationships, but few tools exist to assess couple relationship functioning in low- and middle-income countries. In response to this gap, Catholic Relief Services has developed a Couple Functionality Assessment Tool (CFAT to capture valid and reliable data on various domains of relationship quality. This tool is designed to be used by interventions which aim to improve couple and family well-being as a means of measuring the effectiveness of these interventions, particularly related to couple relationship quality. We carried out a validation study of the CFAT among 401 married and cohabiting adults (203 women and 198 men in rural Chikhwawa District, Malawi. Using psychometric scales, the CFAT addressed six domains of couple relationship quality (intimacy, partner support, sexual satisfaction, gender roles, decision-making, and communication and conflict management, and included questions on intimate partner violence. We used exploratory factor analysis to assess scale performance of each domain and produce a shortened Relationship Quality Index (RQI composed of items from five relationship quality domains. This article reports the performance of the RQI. Internal reliability and validity of the RQI were found to be good. Regression analyses examined the relationship of the RQI to outcomes important to health and development: intra-household cooperation, positive health behaviors, intimate partner violence, and gender-equitable norms. We found many significant correlations between RQI scores and these couple- and family-level development issues. There is a need to further validate the tool with use in other populations as well as to continue to explore whether the observed linkages between couple functionality and development outcomes are causal relationships.

  20. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Pu; Feldman, Maximilian; Schroder, Stephan; Bahri, Bochra A; Diao, Xianmin; Zhi, Hui; Estep, Matt; Baxter, Ivan; Devos, Katrien M; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

    2014-10-01

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new model system for C4 grasses and bioenergy crops, due to its rapid life cycle, large amount of seed production and small diploid genome, among other characters. However, remarkably little is known about the genetic diversity in natural populations of this species. In this study, we survey the genetic diversity of a worldwide sample of more than 200 S. viridis accessions, using the genotyping-by-sequencing technique. Two distinct genetic groups in S. viridis and a third group resembling S. italica were identified, with considerable admixture among the three groups. We find the genetic variation of North American S. viridis correlates with both geography and climate and is representative of the total genetic diversity in this species. This pattern may reflect several introduction/dispersal events of S. viridis into North America. We also modelled demographic history and show signal of recent population decline in one subgroup. Finally, we show linkage disequilibrium decay is rapid (<45 kb) in our total sample and slow in genetic subgroups. These results together provide an in-depth understanding of the pattern of genetic diversity of this new model species on a broad geographic scale. They also provide key guidelines for on-going and future work including germplasm preservation, local adaptation, crossing designs and genomewide association studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  2. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  3. Outcomes from a pilot study using computer-based rehabilitative tools in a military population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Katherine W; Quinn, Julia E; Pramuka, Michael; Sharkey, Laura A; French, Louis M

    2012-01-01

    Novel therapeutic approaches and outcome data are needed for cognitive rehabilitation for patients with a traumatic brain injury; computer-based programs may play a critical role in filling existing knowledge gaps. Brain-fitness computer programs can complement existing therapies, maximize neuroplasticity, provide treatment beyond the clinic, and deliver objective efficacy data. However, these approaches have not been extensively studied in the military and traumatic brain injury population. Walter Reed National Military Medical Center established its Brain Fitness Center (BFC) in 2008 as an adjunct to traditional cognitive therapies for wounded warriors. The BFC offers commercially available "brain-training" products for military Service Members to use in a supportive, structured environment. Over 250 Service Members have utilized this therapeutic intervention. Each patient receives subjective assessments pre and post BFC participation including the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory-4 (MPAI-4), the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory (NBSI), and the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS). A review of the first 29 BFC participants, who finished initial and repeat measures, was completed to determine the effectiveness of the BFC program. Two of the three questionnaires of self-reported symptom change completed before and after participation in the BFC revealed a statistically significant reduction in symptom severity based on MPAI and NBSI total scores (p < .05). There were no significant differences in the SWLS score. Despite the typical limitations of a retrospective chart review, such as variation in treatment procedures, preliminary results reveal a trend towards improved self-reported cognitive and functional symptoms.

  4. Meal replacements as a weight loss tool in a population with severe mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelberg, Hollie A; Kwan, Crystal L; Mena, Shirley J; Erickson, Zachary D; Baker, Matthew R; Chamberlin, Valery; Nguyen, Charles; Rosen, Jennifer A; Shah, Chandresh; Ames, Donna

    2015-12-01

    Weight gain and worsening metabolic parameters are often side effects of antipsychotic medications used by individuals with severe mental illness. To address this, a randomized, controlled research study of a behavioral weight management program for individuals with severe mental illness was undertaken to assess its efficacy. Patients unable to meet weight loss goals during the first portion of the year-long study were given the option of using meal replacement shakes in an effort to assist with weight loss. Specific requirements for use of meal replacement shakes were specified in the study protocol; only five patients were able to use the shakes in accordance with the protocol and lose weight while improving metabolic parameters. Case studies of two subjects are presented, illustrating the challenges and obstacles they faced, as well as their successes. Taking responsibility for their own weight loss, remaining motivated through the end of the study, and incorporating the meal replacement shakes into a daily routine were factors found in common with these patients. Use of meal replacements shakes with this population may be effective. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loman, Zachary G.; DeLuca, William; Harrison, Daniel J.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Rolek, Brian W.; Wood, Petra B.

    2018-01-01

    ContextSpecies-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning.ObjectivesWe tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats.MethodsWe compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling.ResultsBlackpoll warbler (Setophaga striata), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and Louisiana (Parkesia motacilla) and northern waterthrush (P. noveboracensis) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), blackburnian (Setophaga fusca) and cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea)], as all were positively related to occupancy data.ConclusionsLC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

  6. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  7. An advanced modelling tool for simulating complex river systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Braunschweig, Frank; Chambel Leitão, Pedro; Obermann, Matthias; Neves, Ramiro

    2009-04-01

    The present paper describes MOHID River Network (MRN), a 1D hydrodynamic model for river networks as part of MOHID Water Modelling System, which is a modular system for the simulation of water bodies (hydrodynamics and water constituents). MRN is capable of simulating water quality in the aquatic and benthic phase and its development was especially focused on the reproduction of processes occurring in temporary river networks (flush events, pools formation, and transmission losses). Further, unlike many other models, it allows the quantification of settled materials at the channel bed also over periods when the river falls dry. These features are very important to secure mass conservation in highly varying flows of temporary rivers. The water quality models existing in MOHID are base on well-known ecological models, such as WASP and ERSEM, the latter allowing explicit parameterization of C, N, P, Si, and O cycles. MRN can be coupled to the basin model, MOHID Land, with computes runoff and porous media transport, allowing for the dynamic exchange of water and materials between the river and surroundings, or it can be used as a standalone model, receiving discharges at any specified nodes (ASCII files of time series with arbitrary time step). These features account for spatial gradients in precipitation which can be significant in Mediterranean-like basins. An interface has been already developed for SWAT basin model.

  8. Computerized models : tools for assessing the future of complex systems?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ittersum, van M.K.; Sterk, B.

    2015-01-01

    Models are commonly used to make decisions. At some point all of us will have employed a mental model, that is, a simplification of reality, in an everyday situation. For instance, when we want to make the best decision for the environment and consider whether to buy our vegetables in a large

  9. A tool kit for builders of composite models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgi, H.

    1986-01-01

    I motivate and discuss a dynamical picture of strong gauge interactions in a simple class of models, some of which yield massless composite fermions. I show how to put simple components together into models that can describe quarks with color and flavor. (orig.)

  10. Steam Generator Analysis Tools and Modeling of Degradation Mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yetisir, M.; Pietralik, J.; Tapping, R.L.

    2004-01-01

    The degradation of steam generators (SGs) has a significant effect on nuclear heat transport system effectiveness and the lifetime and overall efficiency of a nuclear power plant. Hence, quantification of the effects of degradation mechanisms is an integral part of a SG degradation management strategy. Numerical analysis tools such as THIRST, a 3-dimensional (3D) thermal hydraulics code for recirculating SGs; SLUDGE, a 3D sludge prediction code; CHECWORKS a flow-accelerated corrosion prediction code for nuclear piping, PIPO-FE, a SG tube vibration code; and VIBIC and H3DMAP, 3D non-linear finite-element codes to predict SG tube fretting wear can be used to assess the impacts of various maintenance activities on SG thermal performance. These tools are also found to be invaluable at the design stage to influence the design by determining margins or by helping the designers minimize or avoid known degradation mechanisms. In this paper, the aforementioned numerical tools and their application to degradation mechanisms in CANDU recirculating SGs are described. In addition, the following degradation mechanisms are identified and their effect on SG thermal efficiency and lifetime are quantified: primary-side fouling, secondary-side fouling, fretting wear, and flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC). Primary-side tube inner diameter fouling has been a major contributor to SG thermal degradation. Using the results of thermalhydraulic analysis and field data, fouling margins are calculated. Individual effects of primary- and secondary-side fouling are separated through analyses, which allow station operators to decide what type of maintenance activity to perform and when to perform the maintenance activity. Prediction of the fretting-wear rate of tubes allows designers to decide on the number and locations of support plates and U-bend supports. The prediction of FAC rates for SG internals allows designers to select proper materials, and allows operators to adjust the SG maintenance

  11. Model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firdausi, F. Z.; Nuraini, N.

    2016-04-01

    Palm oil is a vital commodity to the economy of Indonesia. The area of oil palm plantations in Indonesia has increased from year to year. However, the effectiveness of palm oil production is reduced by pest infestation. One of the pest which often infests oil palm plantations is nettle caterpillar. The pest control used in this study is biological control, viz. biological agents given to oil palm trees. This paper describes a mathematical model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population. The two infectious diseases arise due to two biological agents, namely Bacillus thuringiensis bacterium and parasite which usually attack nettle caterpillars. The derivation of the model constructed in this paper is obtained from ordinary differential equations without time delay. The equilibrium points are analyzed. Two of three equilibrium points are stable if the Routh-Hurwitz criteria are fulfilled. In addition, this paper also presents the numerical simulation of the model which has been constructed.

  12. A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gompert, Zachariah

    2016-01-01

    Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20) SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure), particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur) and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among chromosomes in the Uyghur

  13. A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachariah Gompert

    Full Text Available Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20 SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure, particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among

  14. KENO3D Visualization Tool for KENO V.a and KENO-VI Geometry Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwedel, J.E.; Bowman, S.M.

    2000-01-01

    Criticality safety analyses often require detailed modeling of complex geometries. Effective visualization tools can enhance checking the accuracy of these models. This report describes the KENO3D visualization tool developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to provide visualization of KENO V.a and KENO-VI criticality safety models. The development of KENO3D is part of the current efforts to enhance the SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluations) computer software system

  15. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2004-01-01

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create amodel database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The repo...

  16. An integrated user-friendly ArcMAP tool for bivariate statistical modeling in geoscience applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebur, M. N.; Pradhan, B.; Shafri, H. Z. M.; Yusof, Z.; Tehrany, M. S.

    2014-10-01

    Modeling and classification difficulties are fundamental issues in natural hazard assessment. A geographic information system (GIS) is a domain that requires users to use various tools to perform different types of spatial modeling. Bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assists in hazard modeling. To perform this analysis, several calculations are required and the user has to transfer data from one format to another. Most researchers perform these calculations manually by using Microsoft Excel or other programs. This process is time consuming and carries a degree of uncertainty. The lack of proper tools to implement BSA in a GIS environment prompted this study. In this paper, a user-friendly tool, BSM (bivariate statistical modeler), for BSA technique is proposed. Three popular BSA techniques such as frequency ratio, weights-of-evidence, and evidential belief function models are applied in the newly proposed ArcMAP tool. This tool is programmed in Python and is created by a simple graphical user interface, which facilitates the improvement of model performance. The proposed tool implements BSA automatically, thus allowing numerous variables to be examined. To validate the capability and accuracy of this program, a pilot test area in Malaysia is selected and all three models are tested by using the proposed program. Area under curve is used to measure the success rate and prediction rate. Results demonstrate that the proposed program executes BSA with reasonable accuracy. The proposed BSA tool can be used in numerous applications, such as natural hazard, mineral potential, hydrological, and other engineering and environmental applications.

  17. Control and stimulation tools (cat) for the PC modelers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, K.S.; Lea, K.C.

    1990-01-01

    For the last couple of years, the personal computer technology has received a steady stream of improvement in CPU processing power, fast floating coprocessor, super graphics to a very large and fast hard drive. Since Intel began shipping its 80386 version of CPU, it became practical to develop or execute a substantial amount of power plant software on a personal computer. With the introduction of the RISC type personal workstation, complete simulators based on these new generation of computers will soon become a reality. As of today, although almost anybody can afford a personal computer, simulation supporting software is still rare or non-existent at all. The CAST has been designed to support those users who want to develop or debug large power plant simulation programs on a personal computer or workstation. Another separate paper will also be presented to demonstrate the real world development and debugging tools offered by CAST

  18. SNP-based typing: a useful tool to study Bordetella pertussis populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjolein van Gent

    Full Text Available To monitor changes in Bordetella pertussis populations, mainly two typing methods are used; Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE and Multiple-Locus Variable-Number Tandem Repeat Analysis (MLVA. In this study, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP typing method, based on 87 SNPs, was developed and compared with PFGE and MLVA. The discriminatory indices of SNP typing, PFGE and MLVA were found to be 0.85, 0.95 and 0.83, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis, using SNP typing as Gold Standard, revealed false homoplasies in the PFGE and MLVA trees. Further, in contrast to the SNP-based tree, the PFGE- and MLVA-based trees did not reveal a positive correlation between root-to-tip distance and the isolation year of strains. Thus PFGE and MLVA do not allow an estimation of the relative age of the selected strains. In conclusion, SNP typing was found to be phylogenetically more informative than PFGE and more discriminative than MLVA. Further, in contrast to PFGE, it is readily standardized allowing interlaboratory comparisons. We applied SNP typing to study strains with a novel allele for the pertussis toxin promoter, ptxP3, which have a worldwide distribution and which have replaced the resident ptxP1 strains in the last 20 years. Previously, we showed that ptxP3 strains showed increased pertussis toxin expression and that their emergence was associated with increased notification in The Netherlands. SNP typing showed that the ptxP3 strains isolated in the Americas, Asia, Australia and Europe formed a monophyletic branch which recently diverged from ptxP1 strains. Two predominant ptxP3 SNP types were identified which spread worldwide. The widespread use of SNP typing will enhance our understanding of the evolution and global epidemiology of B. pertussis.

  19. SNP-Based Typing: A Useful Tool to Study Bordetella pertussis Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Heide, Han G. J.; Heuvelman, Kees J.; Kallonen, Teemu; He, Qiushui; Mertsola, Jussi; Advani, Abdolreza; Hallander, Hans O.; Janssens, Koen; Hermans, Peter W.; Mooi, Frits R.

    2011-01-01

    To monitor changes in Bordetella pertussis populations, mainly two typing methods are used; Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) and Multiple-Locus Variable-Number Tandem Repeat Analysis (MLVA). In this study, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing method, based on 87 SNPs, was developed and compared with PFGE and MLVA. The discriminatory indices of SNP typing, PFGE and MLVA were found to be 0.85, 0.95 and 0.83, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis, using SNP typing as Gold Standard, revealed false homoplasies in the PFGE and MLVA trees. Further, in contrast to the SNP-based tree, the PFGE- and MLVA-based trees did not reveal a positive correlation between root-to-tip distance and the isolation year of strains. Thus PFGE and MLVA do not allow an estimation of the relative age of the selected strains. In conclusion, SNP typing was found to be phylogenetically more informative than PFGE and more discriminative than MLVA. Further, in contrast to PFGE, it is readily standardized allowing interlaboratory comparisons. We applied SNP typing to study strains with a novel allele for the pertussis toxin promoter, ptxP3, which have a worldwide distribution and which have replaced the resident ptxP1 strains in the last 20 years. Previously, we showed that ptxP3 strains showed increased pertussis toxin expression and that their emergence was associated with increased notification in the Netherlands. SNP typing showed that the ptxP3 strains isolated in the Americas, Asia, Australia and Europe formed a monophyletic branch which recently diverged from ptxP1 strains. Two predominant ptxP3 SNP types were identified which spread worldwide. The widespread use of SNP typing will enhance our understanding of the evolution and global epidemiology of B. pertussis. PMID:21647370

  20. Tool Support for Collaborative Teaching and Learning of Object-Oriented Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Ratzer, Anne Vinter

    2002-01-01

    Modeling is central to doing and learning object-oriented development. We present a new tool, Ideogramic UML, for gesture-based collaborative modeling with the Unified Modeling Language (UML), which can be used to collaboratively teach and learn modeling. Furthermore, we discuss how we have...

  1. Econometric Model – A Tool in Financial Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic situation in Romania requires from the trader a rigorous analysis of vulnerabilities and opportunities offered by the external environment and a careful analysis of internal environmental conditions in which the entity operates. In this context particular attention is paid to indicators presented in the financial statements. Many times they are a model for economic forecasts, future plans, basic business and businesses that use them with a good forecasting activity. In this paper we propose to analyze the comparative evolution of the main financial indicators highlighted in financial statements (profit and loss through a multi-equation econometric model, namely dynamic Keynesian model.

  2. An Integrated Simulation Tool for Modeling the Human Circulatory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asami, Ken'ichi; Kitamura, Tadashi

    This paper presents an integrated simulation of the circulatory system in physiological movement. The large circulatory system model includes principal organs and functional units in modules in which comprehensive physiological changes such as nerve reflexes, temperature regulation, acid/base balance, O2/CO2 balance, and exercise are simulated. A beat-by-beat heart model, in which the corresponding electrical circuit problems are solved by a numerical analytic method, enables calculation of pulsatile blood flow to the major organs. The integration of different perspectives on physiological changes makes this simulation model applicable for the microscopic evaluation of blood flow under various conditions in the human body.

  3. A Perspective on Computational Human Performance Models as Design Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Patricia M.

    2010-01-01

    The design of interactive systems, including levels of automation, displays, and controls, is usually based on design guidelines and iterative empirical prototyping. A complementary approach is to use computational human performance models to evaluate designs. An integrated strategy of model-based and empirical test and evaluation activities is particularly attractive as a methodology for verification and validation of human-rated systems for commercial space. This talk will review several computational human performance modeling approaches and their applicability to design of display and control requirements.

  4. Building Information Model: advantages, tools and adoption efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abakumov, R. G.; Naumov, A. E.

    2018-03-01

    The paper expands definition and essence of Building Information Modeling. It describes content and effects from application of Information Modeling at different stages of a real property item. Analysis of long-term and short-term advantages is given. The authors included an analytical review of Revit software package in comparison with Autodesk with respect to: features, advantages and disadvantages, cost and pay cutoff. A prognostic calculation is given for efficiency of adoption of the Building Information Modeling technology, with examples of its successful adoption in Russia and worldwide.

  5. Angular approach combined to mechanical model for tool breakage detection by eddy current sensors

    OpenAIRE

    Ritou , Mathieu; Garnier , Sébastien; Furet , Benoît; Hascoët , Jean-Yves

    2014-01-01

    International audience; The paper presents a new complete approach for Tool Condition Monitoring (TCM) in milling. The aim is the early detection of small damages so that catastrophic tool failures are prevented. A versatile in-process monitoring system is introduced for reliability concerns. The tool condition is determined by estimates of the radial eccentricity of the teeth. An adequate criterion is proposed combining mechanical model of milling and angular approach. Then, a new solution i...

  6. Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of a Desmopressin Oral Lyophilisate in Growing Piglets as a Model for the Pediatric Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Gasthuys

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Desmopressin is used to treat primary nocturnal enuresis in children. Over the years, various formulations of desmopressin were commercialized of which the sublingual melt tablet is preferred in the pediatric population, despite the lack of full PK studies in this population. A full PK study was performed in growing conventional piglets to evaluate if this juvenile animal model can provide supplementary information to complement the information gap in the pediatric population. A desmopressin sublingual melt tablet (120 μg was administered to 32 male piglets aged 8 days, 4 weeks, 7 weeks, and 6 months (each group n = 8. Population PK (pop-PK analysis was performed to derive the PK parameters, the between- and within-subject variabilities and the effects of covariates. Desmopressin demonstrated two-compartmental PK, with a dual, sequential absorption process, and linear elimination. Body weight was the only significant covariate on clearance and on apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment. In human pediatric trials, no double peak in the absorption phase was observed in the plasma concentration-time curves, possibly due to the sparse sampling strategy applied in those pediatric studies. Therefore, it is recommended to perform additional studies, based on the sampling protocol applied in the current study.

  7. Information geometry and population genetics the mathematical structure of the Wright-Fisher model

    CERN Document Server

    Hofrichter, Julian; Tran, Tat Dat

    2017-01-01

    The present monograph develops a versatile and profound mathematical perspective of the Wright--Fisher model of population genetics. This well-known and intensively studied model carries a rich and beautiful mathematical structure, which is uncovered here in a systematic manner. In addition to approaches by means of analysis, combinatorics and PDE, a geometric perspective is brought in through Amari's and Chentsov's information geometry. This concept allows us to calculate many quantities of interest systematically; likewise, the employed global perspective elucidates the stratification of the model in an unprecedented manner. Furthermore, the links to statistical mechanics and large deviation theory are explored and developed into powerful tools. Altogether, the manuscript provides a solid and broad working basis for graduate students and researchers interested in this field.

  8. Modelling the radioecological transfer of radiocaesium to three Swedish populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raeaef, C.L.

    2005-01-01

    UNSCEAR has presented a terrestrial transfer model for predicting the annual average concentrations of radionuclides in important diet components and in humans based on the annual ground deposition from atmospheric fallout. The model is composed of three components, the principal component representing the direct contamination of fodder and crops, and the two remaining ones reflecting delayed transfer from previous fallout accumulated in soils. The model is intended to be used for protracted deposition of radionuclides and has been applied to observed time-patterns of 137 Cs body burdens in three different Swedish populations subjected to transfer from continuous nuclear weapons fallout during the 1960s and 1970s. The results show that the best agreement with observed body burden data is obtained by applying an effective ecological half-time, T eco,eff , for nuclear weapons fallout 137 Cs of 0.8 years for urban individuals in the South of Sweden, 2 years for urbans living in the Stockholm area and 4 years for reindeer herders in the middle of Sweden. When compared with the ecological half-times observed in the urban population after the Chernobyl fallout these values appear to be shorter

  9. Modelling biological invasions: Individual to population scales at interfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Belmonte-Beitia, J.

    2013-10-01

    Extracting the population level behaviour of biological systems from that of the individual is critical in understanding dynamics across multiple scales and thus has been the subject of numerous investigations. Here, the influence of spatial heterogeneity in such contexts is explored for interfaces with a separation of the length scales characterising the individual and the interface, a situation that can arise in applications involving cellular modelling. As an illustrative example, we consider cell movement between white and grey matter in the brain which may be relevant in considering the invasive dynamics of glioma. We show that while one can safely neglect intrinsic noise, at least when considering glioma cell invasion, profound differences in population behaviours emerge in the presence of interfaces with only subtle alterations in the dynamics at the individual level. Transport driven by local cell sensing generates predictions of cell accumulations along interfaces where cell motility changes. This behaviour is not predicted with the commonly used Fickian diffusion transport model, but can be extracted from preliminary observations of specific cell lines in recent, novel, cryo-imaging. Consequently, these findings suggest a need to consider the impact of individual behaviour, spatial heterogeneity and especially interfaces in experimental and modelling frameworks of cellular dynamics, for instance in the characterisation of glioma cell motility. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  11. Modelling biological invasions: Individual to population scales at interfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Belmonte-Beitia, J.; Woolley, T.E.; Scott, J.G.; Maini, P.K.; Gaffney, E.A.

    2013-01-01

    Extracting the population level behaviour of biological systems from that of the individual is critical in understanding dynamics across multiple scales and thus has been the subject of numerous investigations. Here, the influence of spatial heterogeneity in such contexts is explored for interfaces with a separation of the length scales characterising the individual and the interface, a situation that can arise in applications involving cellular modelling. As an illustrative example, we consider cell movement between white and grey matter in the brain which may be relevant in considering the invasive dynamics of glioma. We show that while one can safely neglect intrinsic noise, at least when considering glioma cell invasion, profound differences in population behaviours emerge in the presence of interfaces with only subtle alterations in the dynamics at the individual level. Transport driven by local cell sensing generates predictions of cell accumulations along interfaces where cell motility changes. This behaviour is not predicted with the commonly used Fickian diffusion transport model, but can be extracted from preliminary observations of specific cell lines in recent, novel, cryo-imaging. Consequently, these findings suggest a need to consider the impact of individual behaviour, spatial heterogeneity and especially interfaces in experimental and modelling frameworks of cellular dynamics, for instance in the characterisation of glioma cell motility. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  12. An Introduction to Model Selection: Tools and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien Hélie

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Model selection is a complicated matter in science, and psychology is no exception. In particular, the high variance in the object of study (i.e., humans prevents the use of Popper’s falsification principle (which is the norm in other sciences. Therefore, the desirability of quantitative psychological models must be assessed by measuring the capacity of the model to fit empirical data. In the present paper, an error measure (likelihood, as well as five methods to compare model fits (the likelihood ratio test, Akaike’s information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, bootstrapping and cross-validation, are presented. The use of each method is illustrated by an example, and the advantages and weaknesses of each method are also discussed.

  13. The Ecosystem Functions Model: A Tool for Restoration Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hickey, John T; Dunn, Chris N

    2004-01-01

    .... Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) is developing the EFM and envisions environmental planners, biologists, and engineers using the model to help determine whether proposed alternatives (e.g...

  14. SARAH 4: A tool for (not only SUSY) model builders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staub, Florian

    2014-06-01

    We present the new version of the Mathematica package SARAH which provides the same features for a non-supersymmetric model as previous versions for supersymmetric models. This includes an easy and straightforward definition of the model, the calculation of all vertices, mass matrices, tadpole equations, and self-energies. Also the two-loop renormalization group equations for a general gauge theory are now included and have been validated with the independent Python code PyR@TE. Model files for FeynArts, CalcHep/CompHep, WHIZARD and in the UFO format can be written, and source code for SPheno for the calculation of the mass spectrum, a set of precision observables, and the decay widths and branching ratios of all states can be generated. Furthermore, the new version includes routines to output model files for Vevacious for both, supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric, models. Global symmetries are also supported with this version and by linking Susyno the handling of Lie groups has been improved and extended.

  15. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  16. Monte Carlo tools for Beyond the Standard Model Physics , April 14-16

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger...[], Simon; Christensen, Christian Holm; Dalsgaard, Hans Hjersing

    2011-01-01

    This workshop aims to gather together theorists and experimentalists interested in developing and using Monte Carlo tools for Beyond the Standard Model Physics in an attempt to be prepared for the analysis of data focusing on the Large Hadron Collider. Since a large number of excellent tools....... To identify promising models (or processes) for which the tools have not yet been constructed and start filling up these gaps. To propose ways to streamline the process of going from models to events, i.e. to make the process more user-friendly so that more people can get involved and perform serious collider...

  17. Evaluating detection and monitoring tools for incipient and relictual non-native ungulate populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judge, Seth W.; Hess, Steve; Faford, Jonathan K.J.; Pacheco, Dexter; Leopold, Christina R.; Cole, Colleen; Deguzman, Veronica

    2016-01-01

    Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) encompasses 1,308 km2 on Hawai‘i Island. The park harbors endemic plants and animals which are threatened by a variety of invasive species. Introduced ungulates have caused sharp declines of numerous endemic species and have converted ecosystems to novel grazing systems in many cases. Local ranchers and the Territorial Government of Hawai‘i had long conducted regional ungulate control even prior to the establishment of HAVO in 1916. In 1995 the park’s hunting team began a new hunt database that allowed managers to review hunt effort and effectiveness in each management unit. Target species included feral pigs (Sus scrofa), European mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), feral goats (Capra hircus) and wild cattle (Bos taurus). Hunters removed 1,204 feral pigs from HAVO over a 19-year period (1996‒2014). A variety of methods were employed, but trapping, snaring and ground hunts with dogs accounted for the most kills. Trapping yielded the most animals per unit effort. Hunters and volunteers removed 6,657 mouflon from HAVO; 6,601 of those were from the 468 km2 Kahuku Unit. Aerial hunts yielded the most animals followed by ground hunt methods. Hunters completed eradications of goats in several management units over an 18- year period (1997‒2014) when they removed the last 239 known individuals in HAVO primarily with aerial hunts. There have also been seven cattle and five feral dogs (Canis familiaris) removed from HAVO. Establishing benchmarks and monitoring the success of on-the-ground ungulate removal efforts can improve the efficiency of protecting and restoring native forest for high-priority watersheds and native wildlife. We tested a variety of methods to detect small populations of ungulates within HAVO and the Hō‘ili Wai study area in the high-priority watershed of Ka‘ū Forest Reserve on Hawai‘i Island. We conducted ground surveys, aerial surveys and continuous camera trap monitoring in both fence

  18. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-01-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  19. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wildland fire spread and behavior are complex Phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-FireChem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)

  20. Forest fire forecasting tool for air quality modelling systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    Adverse effects of smoke on air quality are of great concern; however, even today the estimates of atmospheric fire emissions are a key issue. It is necessary to implement systems for predicting smoke into an air quality modelling system, and in this work a first attempt towards creating a system of this type is presented. Wild land fire spread and behavior are complex phenomena due to both the number of involved physic-chemical factors, and the nonlinear relationship between variables. WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of some real fires occurred in South-East of Spain and North of Portugal. The use of fire behavior models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data. A new custom fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels and live fuels. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behavior. To simulate air pollution over Europe, we use the regional meteorological-chemistry transport model WRF-Chem. In this contribution, we show the impact of using two different fire emissions inventories (FINN and IS4FIRES) and how the coupled WRF-Fire- Chem model improves the results of the forest fire emissions and smoke concentrations. The impact of the forest fire emissions on concentrations is evident, and it is quite clear from these simulations that the choice of emission inventory is very important. We conclude that using the WRF-fire behavior model produces better results than using forest fire emission inventories although the requested computational power is much higher. (Author)