WorldWideScience

Sample records for population balance modelling

  1. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  2. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  3. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  4. Discrete bivariate population balance modelling of heteroaggregation processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollié, Sascha; Briesen, Heiko; Sundmacher, Kai

    2009-08-15

    Heteroaggregation in binary particle mixtures was simulated with a discrete population balance model in terms of two internal coordinates describing the particle properties. The considered particle species are of different size and zeta-potential. Property space is reduced with a semi-heuristic approach to enable an efficient solution. Aggregation rates are based on deterministic models for Brownian motion and stability, under consideration of DLVO interaction potentials. A charge-balance kernel is presented, relating the electrostatic surface potential to the property space by a simple charge balance. Parameter sensitivity with respect to the fractal dimension, aggregate size, hydrodynamic correction, ionic strength and absolute particle concentration was assessed. Results were compared to simulations with the literature kernel based on geometric coverage effects for clusters with heterogeneous surface properties. In both cases electrostatic phenomena, which dominate the aggregation process, show identical trends: impeded cluster-cluster aggregation at low particle mixing ratio (1:1), restabilisation at high mixing ratios (100:1) and formation of complex clusters for intermediate ratios (10:1). The particle mixing ratio controls the surface coverage extent of the larger particle species. Simulation results are compared to experimental flow cytometric data and show very satisfactory agreement.

  5. The prediction of the cavitation phenomena including population balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannari, Rachid; Hliwa, Ghizlane Zineb; Bannari, Abdelfettah; Belghiti, Mly Taib

    2017-07-01

    Cavitation is the principal reason behind the behavior's modification of the hydraulic turbines. However, the experimental observations can not be appropriate to all cases due to the limitations in the measurement techniques. The mathematical models which have been implemented, use the mixture multiphase frame. As well as, most of the published work is limited by considering a constant bubble size distribution. However, this assumption is not realist. The aim of this article is the implementation and the use of a non-homogeneous multiphase model which solve two phases transport equation. The evolution of bubble size is considered by the population balance equation. This study is based on the eulerian-eulerian model, associated to the cavitation model. All the inter-phase forces such as drag, lift and virtual mass are used.

  6. Eulerian Multiphase Population Balance Model of Atomizing, Swirling Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayana P. Rayapati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An Eulerian/Eulerian multiphase flow model coupled with a population balance model is used as the basis for numerical simulation of atomization in swirling flows. The objective of this exercise is to develop a methodology capable of predicting the local point-wise drop size distribution in a spray, such as would be measured by the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDA. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of particle size distributions in an air-blast atomizer spray to demonstrate good qualitative and quantitative agreement. It is observed that the dependence of velocity on drop size inherent in a multiphase description of the drop cloud appears necessary to capture some features of the experimental data. Using this model, we demonstrate the relative contributions of secondary atomization and transport to the variation observed in the downstream spray drop size distribution.

  7. Improved population balance model for straining-dominant deep bed filtration using network calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Hao; You, Zhenjiang; Shapiro, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Colloidal-suspension flow in porous media is modelled simultaneously by the large scale population balance equations and by the microscale network model. The phenomenological parameter of the correlation length in the population balance model is determined from the network modelling. It is found...... out that the correlation length in the population balance model depends on the particle size. This dependency calculated by two-dimensional network has the same tendency as that obtained from the laboratory tests in engineered porous media....

  8. Multi-dimensional population balance models of crystallization processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup; von Solms, Nicolas

    A generic and model-based framework for batch cooling crystallization operations has been extended to incorporate continuous and fed-batch processes. Modules for the framework have been developed, including a module for reactions, allowing the study of reactive crystallization within the framework....... A kinetic model library together with an ontology for knowledge representation has been developed, in which kinetic models and relations from the literature are stored along with the references and data. The model library connects to the generic modelling framework as well, as models can be retrieved......, analyzed, used for simulation and stored again. The model library facilitates comparison of expressions for kinetic phenomena and is tightly integrated with the model analysis tools of the framework.Through the framework, a model for a crystallization operation may be systematically generated...

  9. Hydrodynamics of Bubble Columns: Turbulence and Population Balance Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Braga Vieira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an in-depth numerical analysis on the hydrodynamics of a bubble column. As in previous works on the subject, the focus here is on three important parameters characterizing the flow: interfacial forces, turbulence and inlet superficial Gas Velocity (UG. The bubble size distribution is taken into account by the use of the Quadrature Method of Moments (QMOM model in a two-phase Euler-Euler approach using the open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code OpenFOAM (Open Field Operation and Manipulation. The interfacial forces accounted for in all the simulations presented here are drag, lift and virtual mass. For the turbulence analysis in the water phase, three versions of the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS k-ε turbulence model are examined: namely, the standard, modified and mixture variants. The lift force proves to be of major importance for a trustworthy prediction of the gas volume fraction profiles for all the (superficial gas velocities tested. Concerning the turbulence, the mixture k-ε model is seen to provide higher values of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in comparison to the other models, and this clearly affects the prediction of the gas volume fraction in the bulk region, and the bubble-size distribution. In general, the modified k-ε model proves to be a good compromise between modeling simplicity and accuracy in the study of bubble columns of the kind undertaken here.

  10. Population balance modelling of fluidized bed melt granulation: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, H.S.; Goldschmidt, M.J.V.; Boerefijn, R.; Hounslow, M.J.; Salman, A.; Kuipers, J.A.M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the work undertaken by our group to identify and quantify the rates processes active in fluidized bed melt granulation (FBMG). The process involves the identification and development of physically representative models to mechanistically describe FBMG using both

  11. Development of a Population Balance Model of a pharmaceutical drying process and testing of solution methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Gernaey, Krist; De Beer, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Drying is frequently used in the production of pharmaceutical tablets. Simulation-based control strategy development for such a drying process requires a detailed model. First, the drying of wet granules is modelled using a Population Balance Model. A growth term based on a reduced model was used......, which describes the decrease of the moisture content, to follow the moisture content distribution for a batch of granules. Secondly, different solution methods for solving the PBM are compared. The effect of grid size (discretization methods) is analyzed in terms of accuracy and calculation time. All...

  12. Application of Gaussian cubature to model two-dimensional population balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bałdyga Jerzy

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In many systems of engineering interest the moment transformation of population balance is applied. One of the methods to solve the transformed population balance equations is the quadrature method of moments. It is based on the approximation of the density function in the source term by the Gaussian quadrature so that it preserves the moments of the original distribution. In this work we propose another method to be applied to the multivariate population problem in chemical engineering, namely a Gaussian cubature (GC technique that applies linear programming for the approximation of the multivariate distribution. Examples of the application of the Gaussian cubature (GC are presented for four processes typical for chemical engineering applications. The first and second ones are devoted to crystallization modeling with direction-dependent two-dimensional and three-dimensional growth rates, the third one represents drop dispersion accompanied by mass transfer in liquid-liquid dispersions and finally the fourth case regards the aggregation and sintering of particle populations.

  13. Multiphase flow analysis using population balance modeling bubbles, drops and particles

    CERN Document Server

    Yeoh, Guan Heng; Tu, Jiyuan

    2013-01-01

    Written by leading multiphase flow and CFD experts, this book enables engineers and researchers to understand the use of PBM and CFD frameworks. Population balance approaches can now be used in conjunction with CFD, effectively driving more efficient and effective multiphase flow processes. Engineers familiar with standard CFD software, including ANSYS-CFX and ANSYS-Fluent, will be able to use the tools and approaches presented in this book in the effective research, modeling and control of multiphase flow problems. Builds a complete understanding of the theory behind the

  14. A Novel Approach to Population Balance Modeling of Reactive Polymer Modification Leading to Branching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kryven, I.; Iedema, P.D.

    2013-01-01

    The mathematical treatment of polymer modification systems, described by population balances containing convolution is discussed. The two-dimensional case (molecular weight vs. number of branch points) was considered by utilizing approximations of distributions, expanding them in terms of Gaussian

  15. Discrete population balance models of random agglomeration and cleavage in polymer pyrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. J. Staggs

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The processes of random agglomeration and cleavage (both of which are important for the development of new models of polymer combustion, but are also applicable in a wide range of fields including atmospheric physics, radiation modelling and astrophysics are analysed using population balance methods. The evolution of a discrete distribution of particles is considered within this framework, resulting in a set of ordinary differential equations for the individual particle concentrations. Exact solutions for these equations are derived, together with moment generating functions. Application of the discrete Laplace transform (analogous to the Z-transform is found to be effective in these problems, providing both exact solutions for particle concentrations and moment generating functions. The combined agglomeration-cleavage problem is also considered. Unfortunately, it has been impossible to find an exact solution for the full problem, but a stable steady state has been identified and computed.

  16. A population balance equation model of aggregation dynamics in Taxus suspension cell cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolewe, Martin E; Roberts, Susan C; Henson, Michael A

    2012-02-01

    The nature of plant cells to grow as multicellular aggregates in suspension culture has profound effects on bioprocess performance. Recent advances in the measurement of plant cell aggregate size allow for routine process monitoring of this property. We have exploited this capability to develop a conceptual model to describe changes in the aggregate size distribution that are observed over the course of a Taxus cell suspension batch culture. We utilized the population balance equation framework to describe plant cell aggregates as a particulate system, accounting for the relevant phenomenological processes underlying aggregation, such as growth and breakage. We compared model predictions to experimental data to select appropriate kernel functions, and found that larger aggregates had a higher breakage rate, biomass was partitioned asymmetrically following a breakage event, and aggregates grew exponentially. Our model was then validated against several datasets with different initial aggregate size distributions and was able to quantitatively predict changes in total biomass and mean aggregate size, as well as actual size distributions. We proposed a breakage mechanism where a fraction of biomass was lost upon each breakage event, and demonstrated that even though smaller aggregates have been shown to produce more paclitaxel, an optimum breakage rate was predicted for maximum paclitaxel accumulation. We believe this is the first model to use a segregated, corpuscular approach to describe changes in the size distribution of plant cell aggregates, and represents an important first step in the design of rational strategies to control aggregation and optimize process performance. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Computational fluid dynamics and population balance modelling of nucleate boiling of cryogenic liquids: Theoretical developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guan Heng Yeoh

    2016-12-01

    interfacial mass, momentum and energy exchange terms that appear in the transport equations generally require the determination of the Sauter mean diameter or interfacial area concentration, which strongly governs the fluid flow and heat transfer in the bulk liquid. In order to accommodate the dynamically changing bubble sizes that are prevalent in the bulk liquid, the mechanistic approach based on the population balance model allows the appropriate prediction of local distributions of Sauter mean diameter or interfacial area concentration, which in turn can improve the predictions of the interfacial mass, momentum and energy exchanges that occur across the interface between the phases. Need for further developments are discussed.

  18. Interlinked population balance and cybernetic models for the simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of natural polymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yong Kuen; Doshi, Pankaj; Yeoh, Hak Koon; Ngoh, Gek Cheng

    2015-10-01

    Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) is a process where microbes have to first excrete extracellular enzymes to break polymeric substrates such as starch or cellulose into edible nutrients, followed by in situ conversion of those nutrients into more valuable metabolites via fermentation. As such, SSF is very attractive as a one-pot synthesis method of biological products. However, due to the co-existence of multiple biochemical steps, modeling SSF faces two major challenges. The first is to capture the successive chain-end and/or random scission of the polymeric substrates over time, which determines the rate of generation of various fermentable substrates. The second is to incorporate the response of microbes, including their preferential substrate utilization, to such a complex broth. Each of the above-mentioned challenges has manifested itself in many related areas, and has been competently but separately attacked with two diametrically different tools, i.e., the Population Balance Modeling (PBM) and the Cybernetic Modeling (CM), respectively. To date, they have yet to be applied in unison on SSF resulting in a general inadequacy or haphazard approaches to examine the dynamics and interactions of depolymerization and fermentation. To overcome this unsatisfactory state of affairs, here, the general linkage between PBM and CM is established to model SSF. A notable feature is the flexible linkage, which allows the individual PBM and CM models to be independently modified to the desired levels of detail. A more general treatment of the secretion of extracellular enzyme is also proposed in the CM model. Through a case study on the growth of a recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae capable of excreting a chain-end scission enzyme (glucoamylase) on starch, the interlinked model calibrated using data from the literature (Nakamura et al., Biotechnol. Bioeng. 53:21-25, 1997), captured features not attainable by existing approaches. In particular, the effect

  19. Numerical study of a stochastic particle algorithm solving a multidimensional population balance model for high shear granulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braumann, Andreas; Kraft, Markus; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    This paper is concerned with computational aspects of a multidimensional population balance model of a wet granulation process. Wet granulation is a manufacturing method to form composite particles, granules, from small particles and binders. A detailed numerical study of a stochastic particle algorithm for the solution of a five-dimensional population balance model for wet granulation is presented. Each particle consists of two types of solids (containing pores) and of external and internal liquid (located in the pores). Several transformations of particles are considered, including coalescence, compaction and breakage. A convergence study is performed with respect to the parameter that determines the number of numerical particles. Averaged properties of the system are computed. In addition, the ensemble is subdivided into practically relevant size classes and analysed with respect to the amount of mass and the particle porosity in each class. These results illustrate the importance of the multidimensional approach. Finally, the kinetic equation corresponding to the stochastic model is discussed.

  20. Reduction of a single granule drying model: An essential step in preparation of a population balance model with a continuous growth term

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Daele, Timothy, Van; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2013-01-01

    in the reduced model. Simulations of the complex drying model were, in a next phase, used to develop the reduced model, which describes the decrease of the moisture content in function of the gas temperature. The developed reduced model was then included in a Population Balance Equation (PBE) to describe......The development of a Population Balance Model (PBM) for a pharmaceutical granule drying process requires a continuous growth term; the latter actually represents the drying process as the moisture content is the internal coordinate of the PBM. To establish such a PBM, a complex drying model...

  1. Modelling soot formation from wall films in a gasoline direct injection engine using a detailed population balance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Buyu; Mosbach, Sebastian; Schmutzhard, Sebastian; Shuai, Shijin; Huang, Yaqing; Kraft, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Soot formation from a wall film in a GDI engine is simulated. • Spray impingement and wall film evaporation models are added to SRM Engine Suite. • Soot is modelled using a highly detailed population balance model. • Particle size distributions are measured experimentally. • Evolution of wall region is shown in equivalence ratio-temperature diagrams. - Abstract: In this study, soot formation in a Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) engine is simulated using a Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM Engine Suite) which contains a detailed population balance soot model capable of describing particle morphology and chemical composition. In order to describe the soot formation originating from the wall film, the SRM Engine Suite is extended to include spray impingement and wall film evaporation models. The cylinder is divided into a wall and a bulk zone to resolve the equivalence ratio and temperature distributions of the mixture near the wall. The combustion chamber wall is assumed to exchange heat directly only with the wall zone. The turbulent mixing within each zone and between the two zones are simulated with different mixing models. The effects of key parameters on the temperature and equivalence ratio in the two zones are investigated. The mixing rate between the wall and bulk zone has a significant effect on the wall zone, whilst the mixing rate in the wall zone only has a negligible impact on the temperature and equivalence ratio below a certain threshold. Experimental data are obtained from a four-cylinder, gasoline-fuelled direct injection spark ignition engine operated stoichiometrically. An injection timing sweep, ranging from 120 CAD BTDC to 330 CAD BTDC, is conducted in order to investigate the effect of spray impingement on soot formation. The earliest injection case (330 CAD BTDC), which produces significantly higher levels of particle emissions than any other case, is simulated by the current model. It is found that the in-cylinder pressure

  2. Linking dissolution to disintegration in immediate release tablets using image analysis and a population balance modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David; Wren, Stephen; Reynolds, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    In order to achieve an improved understanding of disintegration and dissolution phenomena for an immediate release tablet formulation, a technique to monitor the number and size of particles entrained within the dissolution media was developed in combination with a population balancing model. Tablets were first characterized for crushing force, disintegration time and dissolution performance using standard USP methodologies. The performance of the tablets was then assessed using a new measurement system which links a "QicPic" particle imaging device to a USP dissolution vessel. This system enables us to measure the number and size of particles generated during tablet dissolution. The population balance mathematical model allowed a tablet erosion rate to be manipulated to fit the experimental data. Results showed that tablets with differing crushing forces showed different dissolution behaviors that could be explained by differing rates of particle release into the dissolution media. These behaviors were then successfully modeled to provide a description of the dissolution and disintegration behavior of the tablets in terms of a tablet erosion rate. A new approach was developed that allowed the description of the dissolution behaviors of the tablets in terms of the rate that they release particles into solution. This was then successfully modeled in terms of a tablet erosion rate.

  3. A novel quantitative model of cell cycle progression based on cyclin-dependent kinases activity and population balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisu, Massimo; Concas, Alessandro; Cao, Giacomo

    2015-04-01

    Cell cycle regulates proliferative cell capacity under normal or pathologic conditions, and in general it governs all in vivo/in vitro cell growth and proliferation processes. Mathematical simulation by means of reliable and predictive models represents an important tool to interpret experiment results, to facilitate the definition of the optimal operating conditions for in vitro cultivation, or to predict the effect of a specific drug in normal/pathologic mammalian cells. Along these lines, a novel model of cell cycle progression is proposed in this work. Specifically, it is based on a population balance (PB) approach that allows one to quantitatively describe cell cycle progression through the different phases experienced by each cell of the entire population during its own life. The transition between two consecutive cell cycle phases is simulated by taking advantage of the biochemical kinetic model developed by Gérard and Goldbeter (2009) which involves cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) whose regulation is achieved through a variety of mechanisms that include association with cyclins and protein inhibitors, phosphorylation-dephosphorylation, and cyclin synthesis or degradation. This biochemical model properly describes the entire cell cycle of mammalian cells by maintaining a sufficient level of detail useful to identify check point for transition and to estimate phase duration required by PB. Specific examples are discussed to illustrate the ability of the proposed model to simulate the effect of drugs for in vitro trials of interest in oncology, regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling of microalgal shear-induced flocculation and sedimentation using a coupled CFD-population balance approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golzarijalal, Mohammad; Zokaee Ashtiani, Farzin; Dabir, Bahram

    2018-01-01

    In this study, shear-induced flocculation modeling of Chlorella sp. microalgae was conducted by combination of population balance modeling and CFD. The inhomogeneous Multiple Size Group (MUSIG) and the Euler-Euler two fluid models were coupled via Ansys-CFX-15 software package to achieve both fluid and particle dynamics during the flocculation. For the first time, a detailed model was proposed to calculate the collision frequency and breakage rate during the microalgae flocculation by means of the response surface methodology as a tool for optimization. The particle size distribution resulted from the model was in good agreement with that of the jar test experiment. Furthermore, the subsequent sedimentation step was also examined by removing the shear rate in both simulations and experiments. Consequently, variation in the shear rate and its effects on the flocculation behavior, sedimentation rate and recovery efficiency were evaluated. Results indicate that flocculation of Chlorella sp. microalgae under shear rates of 37, 182, and 387 s -1 is a promising method of pre-concentration which guarantees the cost efficiency of the subsequent harvesting process by recovering more than 90% of the biomass. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:160-174, 2018. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  5. Inhomogeneous MUSIG Model - a population balance approach for polydispersed bubbly flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.; Zwart, P.J.; Shi, J.; Krepper, E.; Lucas, D.; Rohde, U.

    2005-01-01

    Many flow regimes in Nuclear Reactor Safety (NRS) Research are characterized by multiphase flows, with one phase being a continuous liquid and the other phase consisting of gas or vapour of the liquid phase. In the range of low to intermediate volume fraction of the gaseous phase the multiphase flow under consideration is a bubbly or slug flow, where the disperse phase is characterized by an evolving bubble size distribution due to bubble breakup and coalescence processes. The paper presents a generalized inhomogeneous Multiple Size Group (MUSIG) Model. Within this model the disperse gaseous phase is divided into N inhomogeneous velocity groups (phases) and each of these groups is subdivided into M bubble size classes. Bubble breakup and coalescence processes between all bubble size classes are taken into account by appropriate models. The derived inhomogeneous MUSIG model has been validated against experimental data from the TOPFLOW test facility at the Research Center Rossendorf (FZR). Comparisons of gas volume fraction and velocity profiles with TOPFLOW-074 test case data are provided, showing the applicability and accuracy of the model for polydispersed bubbly flow in large diameter vertical pipe flow. (author)

  6. Efficient simulation of gas-liquid pipe flows using a generalized population balance equation coupled with the algebraic slip model

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo; Ronco, Gianni; Marchisio, Daniele Luca; Labois, Mathieu

    2014-01-01

    The inhomogeneous generalized population balance equation, which is discretized with the direct quadrature method of moment (DQMOM), is solved to predict the bubble size distribution (BSD) in a vertical pipe flow. The proposed model is compared with a more classical approach where bubbles are characterized with a constant mean size. The turbulent two-phase flow field, which is modeled using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equation approach, is assumed to be in local equilibrium, thus the relative gas and liquid (slip) velocities can be calculated with the algebraic slip model, thereby accounting for the drag, lift, and lubrication forces. The complex relationship between the bubble size distribution and the resulting forces is described accurately by the DQMOM. Each quadrature node and weight represents a class of bubbles with characteristic size and number density, which change dynamically in time and space to preserve the first moments of the BSD. The predictions obtained are validated against previously published experimental data, thereby demonstrating the advantages of this approach for large-scale systems as well as suggesting future extensions to long piping systems and more complex geometries. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  7. Efficient simulation of gas-liquid pipe flows using a generalized population balance equation coupled with the algebraic slip model

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo

    2014-09-01

    The inhomogeneous generalized population balance equation, which is discretized with the direct quadrature method of moment (DQMOM), is solved to predict the bubble size distribution (BSD) in a vertical pipe flow. The proposed model is compared with a more classical approach where bubbles are characterized with a constant mean size. The turbulent two-phase flow field, which is modeled using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equation approach, is assumed to be in local equilibrium, thus the relative gas and liquid (slip) velocities can be calculated with the algebraic slip model, thereby accounting for the drag, lift, and lubrication forces. The complex relationship between the bubble size distribution and the resulting forces is described accurately by the DQMOM. Each quadrature node and weight represents a class of bubbles with characteristic size and number density, which change dynamically in time and space to preserve the first moments of the BSD. The predictions obtained are validated against previously published experimental data, thereby demonstrating the advantages of this approach for large-scale systems as well as suggesting future extensions to long piping systems and more complex geometries. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  8. Two-compartmental population balance modeling of a pulsed spray fluidized bed granulation based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huolong; Li, Mingzhong

    2014-11-20

    In this work a two-compartmental population balance model (TCPBM) was proposed to model a pulsed top-spray fluidized bed granulation. The proposed TCPBM considered the spatially heterogeneous granulation mechanisms of the granule growth by dividing the granulator into two perfectly mixed zones of the wetting compartment and drying compartment, in which the aggregation mechanism was assumed in the wetting compartment and the breakage mechanism was considered in the drying compartment. The sizes of the wetting and drying compartments were constant in the TCPBM, in which 30% of the bed was the wetting compartment and 70% of the bed was the drying compartment. The exchange rate of particles between the wetting and drying compartments was determined by the details of the flow properties and distribution of particles predicted by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The experimental validation has shown that the proposed TCPBM can predict evolution of the granule size and distribution within the granulator under different binder spray operating conditions accurately. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2017-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

  10. Analytical solution of population balance equation involving ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an effective analytical simulation to solve population balance equation (PBE), involving particulate aggregation and breakage, by making use ... The domain part of the email address of all email addresses used by the office of Indian Academy of Sciences, including those of the staff, the journals, various ...

  11. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time

  12. Improve SSME power balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karr, Gerald R.

    1992-01-01

    Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

  13. Accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo simulation for coagulation dynamics from the Markov jump model, stochastic algorithm and GPU parallel computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zuwei; Zhao, Haibo; Zheng, Chuguang

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo (PBMC) simulation of particle coagulation dynamics. By combining Markov jump model, weighted majorant kernel and GPU (graphics processing unit) parallel computing, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. The Markov jump model constructs a coagulation-rule matrix of differentially-weighted simulation particles, so as to capture the time evolution of particle size distribution with low statistical noise over the full size range and as far as possible to reduce the number of time loopings. Here three coagulation rules are highlighted and it is found that constructing appropriate coagulation rule provides a route to attain the compromise between accuracy and cost of PBMC methods. Further, in order to avoid double looping over all simulation particles when considering the two-particle events (typically, particle coagulation), the weighted majorant kernel is introduced to estimate the maximum coagulation rates being used for acceptance–rejection processes by single-looping over all particles, and meanwhile the mean time-step of coagulation event is estimated by summing the coagulation kernels of rejected and accepted particle pairs. The computational load of these fast differentially-weighted PBMC simulations (based on the Markov jump model) is reduced greatly to be proportional to the number of simulation particles in a zero-dimensional system (single cell). Finally, for a spatially inhomogeneous multi-dimensional (multi-cell) simulation, the proposed fast PBMC is performed in each cell, and multiple cells are parallel processed by multi-cores on a GPU that can implement the massively threaded data-parallel tasks to obtain remarkable speedup ratio (comparing with CPU computation, the speedup ratio of GPU parallel computing is as high as 200 in a case of 100 cells with 10 000 simulation particles per cell). These accelerating approaches of PBMC are

  14. Multidimensional Balanced Efficiency Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Petrillo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a multicriteria methodological approach, based on Balanced Scorecard (BSC and Analytic Network Process (ANP, is proposed to evaluate competitiveness performance in luxury sector. A set of specific key performance indicators (KPIs have been proposed. The contribution of our paper is to present the integration of two methodologies, BSC – a multiple perspective framework for performance assessment – and ANP – a decision-making tool to prioritize multiple performance perspectives and indicators and to generate a unified metric that incorporates diversified issues for conducting supply chain improvements. The BSC/ANP model is used to prioritize all performances within a luxury industry. A real case study is presented.

  15. Analytical solution of population balance equation involving ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an effective analytical simulation to solve population .... considering spatial dependence and growth, based on the so-called LPA formulation as .... But the particle size distribution is defined so that n(v,t) dx is the number of ..... that was made beforehand in the construction of the analytical solutions ...

  16. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  17. An improved particle population balance equation in the continuum-slip regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Mingliang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved moment model is proposed to solve the population balance equation for Brownian coagulation in the continuum-slip regime, and it reduces to a known one in open literature when the non-linear terms in the slip correction factor are ignored. The present model shows same asymptotic behavior as that in the continuum regime.

  18. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  19. A power balance model for handcycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, Wim G.; van der Woude, Lucas H. V.; De Koning, Jos J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. To demonstrate the applicability of the power balance model to elite handcycling and to obtain values for gross efficiency (GE). Methods. Four members of the Dutch Paralympic team performed trials on a 250-m indoor track. Velocity (v) and power output (PO) were measured in conjunction with

  20. Computational Fluid Dynamics-Population Balance Model Simulation of Effects of Cell Design and Operating Parameters on Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows and Bubble Distribution Characteristics in Aluminum Electrolysis Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Shuiqing; Wang, Junfeng; Wang, Zhentao; Yang, Jianhong

    2018-02-01

    The effects of different cell design and operating parameters on the gas-liquid two-phase flows and bubble distribution characteristics under the anode bottom regions in aluminum electrolysis cells were analyzed using a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-population balance model. These parameters include inter-anode channel width, anode-cathode distance (ACD), anode width and length, current density, and electrolyte depth. The simulations results show that the inter-anode channel width has no significant effect on the gas volume fraction, electrolyte velocity, and bubble size. With increasing ACD, the above values decrease and more uniform bubbles can be obtained. Different effects of the anode width and length can be concluded in different cell regions. With increasing current density, the gas volume fraction and electrolyte velocity increase, but the bubble size keeps nearly the same. Increasing electrolyte depth decreased the gas volume fraction and bubble size in particular areas and the electrolyte velocity increased.

  1. Automatic balancing of 3D models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Asger Nyman; Schmidt, Ryan; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas

    2014-01-01

    3D printing technologies allow for more diverse shapes than are possible with molds and the cost of making just one single object is negligible compared to traditional production methods. However, not all shapes are suitable for 3D print. One of the remaining costs is therefore human time spent......, in these cases, we will apply a rotation of the object which only deforms the shape a little near the base. No user input is required but it is possible to specify manufacturing constraints related to specific 3D print technologies. Several models have successfully been balanced and printed using both polyjet...... is solved by creating cavities of air and distributing dense materials inside the model. Consequently, the surface is not deformed. However, printing materials with significantly different densities is often not possible and adding cavities of air is often not enough to make the model balance. Consequently...

  2. Macroscopic balance model for wave rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Gerard E.

    1996-01-01

    A mathematical model for multi-port wave rotors is described. The wave processes that effect energy exchange within the rotor passage are modeled using one-dimensional gas dynamics. Macroscopic mass and energy balances relate volume-averaged thermodynamic properties in the rotor passage control volume to the mass, momentum, and energy fluxes at the ports. Loss models account for entropy production in boundary layers and in separating flows caused by blade-blockage, incidence, and gradual opening and closing of rotor passages. The mathematical model provides a basis for predicting design-point wave rotor performance, port timing, and machine size. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with CFD calculations and three-port wave rotor experimental data. A four-port wave rotor design example is provided to demonstrate model applicability. The modeling approach is amenable to wave rotor optimization studies and rapid assessment of the trade-offs associated with integrating wave rotors into gas turbine engine systems.

  3. Plant balance model for RELAP/SCDAPSIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza M, R.; Filio L, C.; Araiza M, E.; Ortiz V, J.

    2017-09-01

    In this work we developed an integral model for a nuclear power plant and have a more general picture of what happens in both the Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) and the Balance of Plant (Bop) system during abnormal events that are presented in operation. RELAP/SCDAPSIM (RSS) is a computation code of the type of best estimate that can simulate the transient and accident behavior of a nuclear installation. The development of a Bop model for RSS can result in the simulation of transients such as turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser. This work shows the development of models of the Bop main components for the RSS code, such as the set of high and low pressure turbines, as well as their steam extractions to the feed water heaters, the main steam condenser, a feed water heater and the condensate and water feed pumps. This new model of the Plant Balance system was then coupled to the NSSS model that is already in RSS. First, results of the steady state with this new integral model are show, to later show results of the transients simulation: 1) turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser; 2) loss of condensate pumps; and 3) failure of the feed water heater. (Author)

  4. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  5. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Weight transfer functions for Monte Carlo simulation of coagulation. → Efficient support for single-particle growth processes. → Comparisons to analytic solutions and soot formation problems. → Better numerical accuracy for less common particles. - Abstract: A class of coagulation weight transfer functions is constructed, each member of which leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. These algorithms are based on systems of weighted computational particles and the weight transfer functions are constructed such that the number of computational particles does not change during coagulation events. The algorithms also facilitate the simulation of physical processes that change single particles, such as growth, or other surface reactions. Four members of the algorithm family have been numerically validated by comparison to analytic solutions to simple problems. Numerical experiments have been performed for complex laminar premixed flame systems in which members of the class of stochastic weighted particle methods were compared to each other and to a direct simulation algorithm. Two of the weighted algorithms have been shown to offer performance advantages over the direct simulation algorithm in situations where interest is focused on the larger particles in a system. The extent of this advantage depends on the particular system and on the quantities of interest.

  6. Balanced scorecard model for Paulinian educational institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sr. Evangeline Lorenzo Anastacio

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The researcher aimed to come up with a mission-centered strategic management system for Paulinian schools using the Balanced Scorecard (BSC approach. To achieve this project, a consensus was derived from 39 schools in the Philippines run by the Sisters of St. Paul of Chartres (SPC using the Delphi technique. The resulting BSC model included five perspectives, namely, spirituality, internal processes, learner and external community, learning organization, and fiscal resources perspectives. Strategic objectives with the corresponding key performance indicators (KPIs were identified. Unique to the resulting BSC model is the inclusion of spirituality perspective which ensures the conscious infusion of long-lasting values in all aspects of the school.

  7. Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2010-01-01

    Three different measures to determine the optimum balance between calibration objectives are compared: the combined rank method, parameter identifiability and model validation. Four objectives (water balance, hydrograph shape, high flows, low flows) are included in each measure. The contributions of

  8. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  9. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kok Foong [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang [Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore, 637459 (Singapore)

    2015-12-15

    Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  10. The water balance questionnaire: design, reliability and validity of a questionnaire to evaluate water balance in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, Olga; Bountziouka, Vassiliki; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Zampelas, Antonis; Kapsokefalou, Maria

    2012-03-01

    There is a need to develop a questionnaire as a research tool for the evaluation of water balance in the general population. The water balance questionnaire (WBQ) was designed to evaluate water intake from fluid and solid foods and drinking water, and water loss from urine, faeces and sweat at sedentary conditions and physical activity. For validation purposes, the WBQ was administrated in 40 apparently healthy participants aged 22-57 years (37.5% males). Hydration indices in urine (24 h volume, osmolality, specific gravity, pH, colour) were measured through established procedures. Furthermore, the questionnaire was administered twice to 175 subjects to evaluate its reliability. Kendall's τ-b and the Bland and Altman method were used to assess the questionnaire's validity and reliability. The proposed WBQ to assess water balance in healthy individuals was found to be valid and reliable, and it could thus be a useful tool in future projects that aim to evaluate water balance.

  11. BALANCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, H.

    1953-01-01

    A torsional-type analytical balance designed to arrive at its equilibrium point more quickly than previous balances is described. In order to prevent external heat sources creating air currents inside the balance casing that would reiard the attainment of equilibrium conditions, a relatively thick casing shaped as an inverted U is placed over the load support arms and the balance beam. This casing is of a metal of good thernnal conductivity characteristics, such as copper or aluminum, in order that heat applied to one portion of the balance is quickly conducted to all other sensitive areas, thus effectively preventing the fornnation of air currents caused by unequal heating of the balance.

  12. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  13. NREL Offshore Balance-of-System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maness, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maples, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has investigated the potential for 20% of nationwide electricity demand to be generated from wind by 2030 and, more recently, 35% by 2050. Achieving this level of wind power generation may require the development and deployment of offshore wind technologies. DOE (2008) has indicated that reaching these 2030 and 2050 scenarios could result in approximately 10% and 20%, respectively, of wind energy generation to come from offshore resources. By the end of 2013, 6.5 gigawatts of offshore wind were installed globally. The first U.S. project, the Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of Rhode Island, has recently begun operations. One of the major reasons that offshore wind development in the United States is lagging behind global trends is the high capital expenditures required. An understanding of the costs and associated drivers of building a commercial-scale offshore wind plant in the United States will inform future research and help U.S. investors feel more confident in offshore wind development. In an effort to explain these costs, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed the Offshore Balance-of-System model.

  14. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, Candice; Kress, Jeff; Schroeder, Jan; Donlin, Ayla; Rozenek, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level...

  15. Busy yet socially engaged: volunteering, work-life balance, and health in the working population.

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Romualdo; Brauchli Rebecca; Bauer Georg; Wehner Theo; Hämmig Oliver

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To understand the relationship between volunteering and health in the overlooked yet highly engaged working population, adopting a contextualizing balance approach. We hypothesize that volunteering may function as a psychosocial resource, contributing to work-life balance and, ultimately, health. METHODS A total of 746 Swiss workers participated in an online survey; 35% (N = 264) were additionally volunteers in a nonprofit organization. We assessed volunteering, work-life balance...

  16. EFFECT OF SPECIFIC BALANCE STRATEGY TRAINING PROGRAMME ON BALANCE IN INSTITUTIONALIZED ELDERLY POPULATION

    OpenAIRE

    Muzaffar Mairaj; Hamdani Nusrat; Walia Shefali

    2015-01-01

    Background: Balance emerges from the interaction of multiple systems that are organized to meet functional task goals and that are constrained by environmental context, but is often compromised with advancing age. At least 30% of older people experience decline in physical activity after entry into residential care. Participation in activity is more difficult for older people because of fear, lack of motivation, depression and poor understanding of the long term benefits of physical activity....

  17. An energy balance model for the Greenland ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    1994-01-01

    The sensitivity of the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is studied by means of an energy balance model. The model calculates the shortwave and longwave radiation and the turbulent fluxes on a grid with a grid point spacing of 20 km. Special attention is given to the parameterization of the

  18. THE SIGNAL APPROACH TO MODELLING THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers and presents synthesis of theoretical models of balance of payment crisis and investigates the most effective ways to model the crisis in Ukraine. For mathematical formalization of balance of payment crisis, comparative analysis of the effectiveness of different calculation methods of Exchange Market Pressure Index was performed. A set of indicators that signal the growing likelihood of balance of payments crisis was defined using signal approach. With the help of minimization function thresholds indicators were selected, the crossing of which signalize increase in the probability of balance of payment crisis.

  19. A Dynamic Model for Load Balancing in Cloud Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Bhagwandas Bhatia

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysis various challenges faced in optimizing computing resource utilization via load balancing and presents a platform-independent model for load balancing which targets high availability of resources, low SLA (Service Level agreement violations and saves power. To achieve this, incoming requests are monitored for sudden burst, a prediction model is employed to maintain high availability and a power-aware algorithm is applied for choosing a suitable physical node for a virtual host. The proposed dynamic load balancing model provides a way to conflicting goals of saving power and maintaining high resource availability.For anyone building a private, public or hybrid IaaS cloud infrastructure, load balancing of virtual hosts on a limited number of physical nodes, becomes a crucial aspect. This paper analysis various challenges faced in optimizing computing resource utilization via load balancing and presents a platform independent model for load balancing which targets high availability of resources, low SLA (Service Level agreement violations and saves power. To achieve this, incoming requests are monitored for sudden burst, prediction model is employed to maintain high availability and power aware algorithm is applied for choosing a suitable physical node for virtual host. The proposed dynamic load balancing model provides a way to conflicting goals of saving power and maintaining high resource availability.

  20. A Balanced Portfolio Model For Improving Health: Concept And Vermont's Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, James

    2018-04-01

    A successful strategy for improving population health requires acting in several sectors by implementing a portfolio of interventions. The mix of interventions should be both tailored to meet the community's needs and balanced in several dimensions-for example, time frame, level of risk, and target population. One obstacle is finding sustainable financing for both the interventions and the community infrastructure needed. This article first summarizes Vermont's experience as a laboratory for health reform. It then presents a conceptual model for a community-based population health strategy, using a balanced portfolio and diversified funding approaches. The article then reviews Vermont's population health initiative, including an example of a balanced portfolio and lessons learned from the state's experience.

  1. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  2. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  3. The effects of a multi-axis balance board intervention program in an elderly population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, John; Kancel, Anne; Ramar, Cassandra; Meacham, Crystal; Derrington, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Balance is a major issue facing the geriatric population. Nine participants from a local community center for seniors completed a five-week study to assess improvement in balance. Measures of balance, performance times, and scores on the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Wii Fit Age (WFA) were recorded before and after the entire intervention. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures was used to assess change in BBS and WFA scores. An analysis of covariance with repeated measures was used to asses the impact of possible contributing factors of age, gender, BMI and total balance board training time over the five-week period. The analysis indicated that use of the Indo Balance Board three times a week for ten minutes can significantly improve balance and potentially decrease the risk of falls, as measured by the BBS. Age was the only factor that significantly influenced balance (p = .006). These improvements are postulated to be due to an increase in subjects' core and lower extremity muscle strength and improved proprioception; a result of balance board usage.

  4. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  5. Modelling and Analysis of a New Piezoelectric Dynamic Balance Regulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu-Xun Xu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator, which can be used in motorised spindle systems, is presented. The dynamic balancing adjustment mechanism is driven by an in-plane bending vibration from an annular piezoelectric stator excited by a high-frequency sinusoidal input voltage. This device has different construction, characteristics and operating principles than a conventional balance regulator. In this work, a dynamic model of the regulator is first developed using a detailed analytical method. Thereafter, MATLAB is employed to numerically simulate the relations between the dominant parameters and the characteristics of the regulator based on thedynamic model. Finally, experimental measurements are used to certify the validity of the dynamic model. Consequently, the mathematical model presented and analysed in this paper can be used as a tool for optimising the design of a piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator during steady state operation.

  6. Model engineering : balancing between virtuality and reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hee, van K.M.

    2011-01-01

    Model engineering concerns the development of models of complex systems. This modeling is performed for a variety of reasons, such as system behavior prediction, system optimization or system construction. Model engineering requires a modeling framework that includes a language to represent the

  7. Busy yet socially engaged: volunteering, work-life balance, and health in the working population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Romualdo; Brauchli, Rebecca; Bauer, Georg; Wehner, Theo; Hämmig, Oliver

    2015-02-01

    To understand the relationship between volunteering and health in the overlooked yet highly engaged working population, adopting a contextualizing balance approach. We hypothesize that volunteering may function as a psychosocial resource, contributing to work-life balance and, ultimately, health. A total of 746 Swiss workers participated in an online survey; 35% (N = 264) were additionally volunteers in a nonprofit organization. We assessed volunteering, work-life balance perceptions, paid job demands, and resources and health outcomes. After controlling for job characteristics, volunteering was associated with less work-life conflict, burnout and stress, and better positive mental health. Results further revealed that balance perceptions partly explained the relationship between volunteering and health. Volunteering, albeit energy and time-consuming, may contribute to a greater sense of balance for people in the workforce, which might, in turn, positively influence health.

  8. Gait and balance in the aging population: Fall prevention using innovation and technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanuja, Kavisha; Joki, Jaclyn; Bachmann, Gloria; Cuccurullo, Sara

    2018-04-01

    On a global basis, adults 65 years of age and older experience falls more frequently than younger individuals, and these often result in severe injuries as well as increased healthcare costs. Gait and balance disorders in this population are among the most common causes of falls and negatively influence quality of life and survivorship. Although falls are a major public health problem and guidelines/recommendations are available to physicians, many are fully aware of different assessments, tools, and resources available for intervention. Given the risk for potentially devastating outcomes if severe injuries occur secondary to a fall, fall prevention strategies in clinical offices is a timely consideration in today's health care landscape. This paper presents a three-tier model, comprising assessment, prevention, and intervention, to highlight methods, proactive programs, and innovative tools and technology that have been developed for fall prevention. Awareness of these resources will enhance the clinician's ability to accurately assess balance and gait, which can improve physical function, and decrease the risk of falls for both average-risk and high-risk older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  10. System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2008-01-01

    /methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

  11. Redwoods: a population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, C A

    1971-04-23

    The chief conclusion to be drawn from the results of this study is that redwoods are amazingly vigorous. The results support both the lumber companies and the conservationists. There is no question that old growth giant redwoods must be preserved. Only commercial greed could be a basis for refuting that stand. On the other hand, the lumber companies seem to be supported in their contention that redwoods can be farmed without driving them to extinction. The central issue revolves around the old trees. And here profit is the big factor. Lumbering is an important industry in California, and redwood lumbering represents about 20 percent of the industry (l). Most of the big names in timber, such as Weyerhaeuser and Georgia-Pacific, are involved in logging the California redwood. At the current rate of logging, particularly of old growth stands, the Bank of America estimates that employment in Humboldt County will be down significantly by 1975 (4). It has been argued that tourism would more than compensate for the lower employment in logging. But not if the trees that the tourists come to see are gone. Why can't young and mature trees be harvested at a reasonable rate, the old trees saved, and both tourism and logging flourish? The question posed earlier has been answered. Redwood growth and survival can be modeled, using matrix methods in a new context. Meaningful conclusions may be drawn. And the results are sufficiently tantalizing to inspire further research.

  12. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  13. Local Balancing System from the Business Model Canvas Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matusiak Bożena Ewa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an overall view of the business model (BM for the e-balance system for: balancing energy production and consumption in energy efficient, smart neighbourhoods (the e-balance project, FP7-SMARTCITIES-2013 along with its functionalities, based upon the Osterwalder’s canvas methodology. Additionally, this is the second, after two years of work, more incisive evaluation of the BM from the user’s and demo site’s perspective (Bronsbergen, the Netherlands. The aim of this paper is to present results and assess the above mentioned BM in the face its commercialisation and applicability to Europe.

  14. Modeling acquaintance networks based on balance theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukašinović Vida

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available An acquaintance network is a social structure made up of a set of actors and the ties between them. These ties change dynamically as a consequence of incessant interactions between the actors. In this paper we introduce a social network model called the Interaction-Based (IB model that involves well-known sociological principles. The connections between the actors and the strength of the connections are influenced by the continuous positive and negative interactions between the actors and, vice versa, the future interactions are more likely to happen between the actors that are connected with stronger ties. The model is also inspired by the social behavior of animal species, particularly that of ants in their colony. A model evaluation showed that the IB model turned out to be sparse. The model has a small diameter and an average path length that grows in proportion to the logarithm of the number of vertices. The clustering coefficient is relatively high, and its value stabilizes in larger networks. The degree distributions are slightly right-skewed. In the mature phase of the IB model, i.e., when the number of edges does not change significantly, most of the network properties do not change significantly either. The IB model was found to be the best of all the compared models in simulating the e-mail URV (University Rovira i Virgili of Tarragona network because the properties of the IB model more closely matched those of the e-mail URV network than the other models

  15. Geochemical mole-balance modeling with uncertain data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkhurst, David L.

    1997-01-01

    Geochemical mole-balance models are sets of chemical reactions that quantitatively account for changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of water along a flow path. A revised mole-balance formulation that includes an uncertainty term for each chemical and isotopic datum is derived. The revised formulation is comprised of mole-balance equations for each element or element redox state, alkalinity, electrons, solvent water, and each isotope; a charge-balance equation and an equation that relates the uncertainty terms for pH, alkalinity, and total dissolved inorganic carbon for each aqueous solution; inequality constraints on the size of the uncertainty terms; and inequality constraints on the sign of the mole transfer of reactants. The equations and inequality constraints are solved by a modification of the simplex algorithm combined with an exhaustive search for unique combinations of aqueous solutions and reactants for which the equations and inequality constraints can be solved and the uncertainty terms minimized. Additional algorithms find only the simplest mole-balance models and determine the ranges of mixing fractions for each solution and mole transfers for each reactant that are consistent with specified limits on the uncertainty terms. The revised formulation produces simpler and more robust mole-balance models and allows the significance of mixing fractions and mole transfers to be evaluated. In an example from the central Oklahoma aquifer, inclusion of up to 5% uncertainty in the chemical data can reduce the number of reactants in mole-balance models from seven or more to as few as three, these being cation exchange, dolomite dissolution, and silica precipitation. In another example from the Madison aquifer, inclusion of the charge-balance constraint requires significant increases in the mole transfers of calcite, dolomite, and organic matter, which reduce the estimated maximum carbon 14 age of the sample by about 10,000 years, from 22,700 years to

  16. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  17. Teaching Population Balances for Chemical Engineering Students: Application to Granulation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucala, Veronica; Pina, Juliana

    2007-01-01

    The population balance equation (PBE) is a useful tool to predict particle size distributions in granulation processes. When PBE is taught to advanced chemical engineering students, the internal coordinates (particle properties) are particularly hard to understand. In this paper, the flow of particles along different coordinates is carefully…

  18. A well-balanced meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecht, Rüdiger; Bihlo, Alexander; MacLachlan, Scott; Behrens, Jörn

    2018-05-01

    We present a novel meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model. We discretize the nonlinear shallow-water equations using a well-balanced scheme relying on radial basis function based finite differences. For the inundation model, radial basis functions are used to extrapolate the dry region from nearby wet points. Numerical results against standard one- and two-dimensional benchmarks are presented.

  19. Modelling heavy metal and phosphorus balances for farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keller, A.N.; Schulin, R.

    2003-01-01

    Accounting for agricultural activities such as P fertilization in regional models of heavy metal accumulation provides suitable sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient surpluses and metal inputs in agricultural soils. Using the balance model PROTERRA-S, we assessed the phosphorus ( P),

  20. Weak Memory Models: Balancing Definitional Simplicity and Implementation Flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Sizhuo; Vijayaraghavan, Muralidaran; Arvind

    2017-01-01

    The memory model for RISC-V, a newly developed open source ISA, has not been finalized yet and thus, offers an opportunity to evaluate existing memory models. We believe RISC-V should not adopt the memory models of POWER or ARM, because their axiomatic and operational definitions are too complicated. We propose two new weak memory models: WMM and WMM-S, which balance definitional simplicity and implementation flexibility differently. Both allow all instruction reorderings except overtaking of...

  1. Water balance modelling of a uranium mill effluent management system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plagnes, Valérie; Schmid, Brad; Mitchell, Brett; Judd-Henrey, Ian

    2017-06-01

    A water balance model was developed to forecast the management strategy of a uranium mill effluent system, located in northern Saskatchewan, Canada. Mining and milling operations, such as pit dewatering or treated effluent release, can potentially influence the hydrology and the water quality downstream of the operations. This study presents the methodology used to predict water volumes and water quality discharging downstream in surface water bodies. A compartment model representing the three subsequent lakes included in the management system was set up using the software GoldSim®. The water balance allows predicting lake volumes at the daily time step. A mass balance model developed for conservative elements was also developed and allows validating the proportions of inputs and outputs issued from the water balance model. This model was then used as predictive tool to evaluate the impact of different scenarios of effluents management on volumes and chemistry of surface water for short and longer time periods. An additional significant benefit of this model is that it can be used as an input for geochemical modelling to predict the concentrations of all constituents of concern in the receiving surface water.

  2. Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

    2013-02-01

    In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

  3. Continuous-time model of structural balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Seth A; Kleinberg, Jon; Kleinberg, Robert D; Strogatz, Steven H

    2011-02-01

    It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X(2), where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.

  4. Plant balance model for RELAP/SCDAPSIM; Modelo de balance de planta para RELAP/SCDAPSIM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza M, R. [Consultor independiente, Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Filio L, C. [IPN, Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas, Av. IPN s/n, 07738 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Araiza M, E.; Ortiz V, J., E-mail: rafael_mendozam_esfm@live.com.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Touca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2017-09-15

    In this work we developed an integral model for a nuclear power plant and have a more general picture of what happens in both the Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) and the Balance of Plant (Bop) system during abnormal events that are presented in operation. RELAP/SCDAPSIM (RSS) is a computation code of the type of best estimate that can simulate the transient and accident behavior of a nuclear installation. The development of a Bop model for RSS can result in the simulation of transients such as turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser. This work shows the development of models of the Bop main components for the RSS code, such as the set of high and low pressure turbines, as well as their steam extractions to the feed water heaters, the main steam condenser, a feed water heater and the condensate and water feed pumps. This new model of the Plant Balance system was then coupled to the NSSS model that is already in RSS. First, results of the steady state with this new integral model are show, to later show results of the transients simulation: 1) turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser; 2) loss of condensate pumps; and 3) failure of the feed water heater. (Author)

  5. Econometric modeling of the balance of social security Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Isaac Figueiredo de Sousa

    2009-01-01

    This work aims to build models using econometrics techniques to explain the components of the balance of Social Security System, or in other words, the net value of tax revenues and the benefit values of the General Regime of Social Security. These models were subjected to statistic validations indicated in the theoretical reference of econometrics, to apply the method of ordinary least square from the classic model of linear regression. From an increasing longevity and the gradual decr...

  6. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Candice; Kress, Jeff; Schroeder, Jan; Donlin, Ayla; Rozenek, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level activity participants (7,500 steps/day) in weight, age, and the number of medications reported. Males performed better than females on the two-footed jump test and reactive postural test FAB assessments. High-level activity participants performed significantly better than low-level activity participants on all FAB assessments except stand with feet together and eyes closed, reach forward to object, and walk with head turns.

  7. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candice Campbell MS

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level activity participants (7,500 steps/day in weight, age, and the number of medications reported. Males performed better than females on the two-footed jump test and reactive postural test FAB assessments. High-level activity participants performed significantly better than low-level activity participants on all FAB assessments except stand with feet together and eyes closed, reach forward to object, and walk with head turns.

  8. Battery model for electrical power system energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafen, D. P.

    1983-01-01

    A model to simulate nickel-cadmium battery performance and response in a spacecraft electrical power system energy balance calculation was developed. The voltage of the battery is given as a function of temperature, operating depth-of-charge (DOD), and battery state-of-charge. Also accounted for is charge inefficiency. A battery is modeled by analysis of the results of a multiparameter battery cycling test at various temperatures and DOD's.

  9. The effect of visual biofeedback on balance in elderly population: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhasan H

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Hammad Alhasan,1 Victoria Hood,2 Frederick Mainwaring2 1Physiotherapy Department, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, Umm al-Qura University, Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 2School of Health Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, UK Background: Balance is commonly affected by multiple factors, especially among the elderly population. Visual biofeedback (VBF is an intervention tool that can be used in balance rehabilitation.Aim: This study aimed to systematically review randomized controlled trials that examine whether VBF training is effective in improving balance in an elderly population.Data sources: Three databases were searched: CIAHL, EMBASE, and MEDLINE. The searches were limited to the period from 2010 to 2016.Eligibility criteria: Healthy adults, aged ≥65 years, with no specific disorders were included. Interventions were any VBF intervention with the aim of improving balance and were compared to no intervention, traditional exercises, placebo, or standard care. The outcome measures were balance as measured by any validated outcome measure.Studies appraisal method: The Physiotherapy Evidence Database quality assessment tool and The Cochrane Collaboration tool for assessing risk of bias were used by two independent authors (HA and FM in order to appraise the included studies.Results: The database search resulted in 879 articles, of which five papers were included. VBF was compared to no intervention, a placebo, and traditional exercise. The total number of participants in all the five included studies was 181, with a mean age of 74.3 years (standard deviation 6.7. Two studies were rated as high-quality studies, and three were rated as fair quality.Conclusion: Engaging elderly people living in the community in VBF training was found to be effective and could improve their balance ability. However, the variation between studies in methodology, intervention protocol, and outcomes utilized made it difficult to

  10. Time-dependent ionization balance model for non-LTE plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.T.; Zimmerman, G.B.; Bailey, D.S.; Dickson, D.; Kim, D.

    1986-01-01

    We have developed a detailed configuration-accounting kinetic model for calculating time-dependent ionization-balance and ion-level populations in non-local thermal-equilibrium (non-LTE) plasmas. We use these population estimates in computing spectral line intensities, line ratios, and synthetic spectra, and in fitting these calculated values to experimental measurements. The model is also used to design laboratory x-ray laser experiments. For this purpose, it is self-consistently coupled to the hydrodynamics code LASNEX. 20 refs., 14 figs

  11. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  12. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  13. Macroscopic balance equations for two-phase flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, E.D.

    1979-01-01

    The macroscopic, or overall, balance equations of mass, momentum, and energy are derived for a two-fluid model of two-phase flows in complex geometries. These equations provide a base for investigating methods of incorporating improved analysis methods into computer programs, such as RETRAN, which are used for transient and steady-state thermal-hydraulic analyses of nuclear steam supply systems. The equations are derived in a very general manner so that three-dimensional, compressible flows can be analysed. The equations obtained supplement the various partial differential equation two-fluid models of two-phase flow which have recently appeared in the literature. The primary objective of the investigation is the macroscopic balance equations. (Auth.)

  14. Model Engine Performance Measurement From Force Balance Instrumentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeracki, Robert J.

    1998-01-01

    A large scale model representative of a low-noise, high bypass ratio turbofan engine was tested for acoustics and performance in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel. This test was part of NASA's continuing Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program. The low tip speed fan, nacelle, and an un-powered core passage (with core inlet guide vanes) were simulated. The fan blades and hub are mounted on a rotating thrust and torque balance. The nacelle, bypass duct stators, and core passage are attached to a six component force balance. The two balance forces, when corrected for internal pressure tares, measure the total thrust-minus-drag of the engine simulator. Corrected for scaling and other effects, it is basically the same force that the engine supports would feel, operating at similar conditions. A control volume is shown and discussed, identifying the various force components of the engine simulator thrust and definitions of net thrust. Several wind tunnel runs with nearly the same hardware installed are compared, to identify the repeatability of the measured thrust-minus-drag. Other wind tunnel runs, with hardware changes that affected fan performance, are compared to the baseline configuration, and the thrust and torque effects are shown. Finally, a thrust comparison between the force balance and nozzle gross thrust methods is shown, and both yield very similar results.

  15. Toward Balance Recovery With Leg Prostheses Using Neuromuscular Model Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Objective Lower limb amputees are at high risk of falling as current prosthetic legs provide only limited functionality for recovering balance after unexpected disturbances. For instance, the most established control method used on powered leg prostheses tracks local joint impedance functions without taking the global function of the leg in balance recovery into account. Here we explore an alternative control policy for powered transfemoral prostheses that considers the global leg function and is based on a neuromuscular model of human locomotion. Methods We adapt this model to describe and simulate an amputee walking with a powered prosthesis using the proposed control, and evaluate the gait robustness when confronted with rough ground and swing leg disturbances. We then implement and partially evaluate the resulting controller on a leg prosthesis prototype worn by a non-amputee user. Results In simulation, the proposed prosthesis control leads to gaits that are more robust than those obtained by the impedance control method. The initial hardware experiments with the prosthesis prototype show that the proposed control reproduces normal walking patterns qualitatively and effectively responds to disturbances in early and late swing. However, the response to mid-swing disturbances neither replicates human responses nor averts falls. Conclusions The neuromuscular model control is a promising alternative to existing prosthesis controls, although further research will need to improve on the initial implementation and determine how well these results transfer to amputee gait. Significance This work provides a potential avenue for future development of control policies that help improve amputee balance recovery. PMID:26315935

  16. Comparison between two models of energy balance in coronal loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Cormack, C.; López Fuentes, M.; Vásquez, A. M.; Nuevo, F. A.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.

    2017-10-01

    In this work we compare two models to analyze the energy balance along coronal magnetic loops. For the first stationary model we deduce an expression of the energy balance along the loops expressed in terms of quantities provided by the combination of differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) applied to EUV images time series and potential extrapolations of the coronal magnetic field. The second applied model is a 0D hydrodynamic model that provides the evolution of the average properties of the coronal plasma along the loops, using as input parameters the loop length and the heating rate obtained with the first model. We compare the models for two Carrington rotations (CR) corresponding to different periods of activity: CR 2081, corresponding to a period of minimum activity observed with the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) on board of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and CR 2099, corresponding to a period of activity increase observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The results of the models are consistent for both rotations.

  17. Evaluation of seasonality on total water intake, water loss and water balance in the general population in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, O; Bountziouka, V; Panagiotakos, D Β; Zampelas, A; Kapsokefalou, M

    2013-07-01

    Water balance is achieved when water intake from solid and fluid foods and drinking water meets water losses, mainly in sweat, urine and faeces. Seasonality, particularly in Mediterranean countries that have a hot summer, may affect water loss and consequently water balance. Water balance has not been estimated before on a population level and the effect of seasonality has not been evaluated. The present study aimed to compare water balance, intake and loss in summer and winter in a sample of the general population in Greece. The Water Balance Questionnaire (WBQ) was used to evaluate water balance, estimating water intake and loss in summer (n = 480) and in winter (n = 412) on a stratified sample of the general population in Athens, Greece. In winter, mean (SD) water balance was -63 (1478) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD)water intake was 2892 (987) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 2637 (1810-3922) mL/day(-1) . In summer, mean (SD) water balance was -58 (2150) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD) water intake was 3875 (1373) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 3635 (2365-5258) mL/day(-1) . Water balance did not differ between summer and winter (P = 0.96); however, the data distribution was different; in summer, approximately 8% more participants were falling in the low and high water balance categories. Differences in water intake from different sources were identified (P balance in summer and winter was not different. However, water intake and loss were approximately 40% higher in summer than in winter. More people were falling in the low and high water balance categories in summer when comparing the distribution on water balance in winter. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  18. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  19. Arid site water balance: evapotranspiration modeling and measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Kirkham, R.R.

    1984-09-01

    In order to evaluate the magnitude of radionuclide transport at an aird site, a field and modeling study was conducted to measure and predict water movement under vegetated and bare soil conditions. Significant quantities of water were found to move below the roo of a shallow-rooted grass-covered area during wet years at the Hanford site. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, was resonably successful in simulating the transient behavior of the water balance at this site. The effects of layered soils on water balance were demonstrated using the model. Models used to evaluate water balance in arid regions should not rely on annual averages and assume that all precipitation is removed by evapotranspiration. The potential for drainage at arid sites exists under conditions where shallow rooted plants grow on coarse textured soils. This condition was observed at our study site at Hanford. Neutron probe data collected on a cheatgrass community at the Hanford site during a wet year indicated that over 5 cm of water drained below the 3.5-m depth. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, predicted water drainage of about 5 cm (single layer, 10 months) and 3.5 cm (two layers, 12 months) for the same time period. Additional field measurements of hydraulic conductivity will likely improve the drainage estimate made by UNSAT-1D. Additional information describing cheatgrass growth and water use at the grass site could improve model predictions of sink terms and subsequent calculations of water storage within the rooting zone. In arid areas where the major part of the annual precipitation occurs during months with low average potential evapotranspiration and where soils are vegetated but are coarse textured and well drained, significant drainage can occur. 31 references, 18 figures, 1 table

  20. Statistical molecular design of balanced compound libraries for QSAR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linusson, A; Elofsson, M; Andersson, I E; Dahlgren, M K

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental step in preclinical drug development is the computation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, i.e. models that link chemical features of compounds with activities towards a target macromolecule associated with the initiation or progression of a disease. QSAR models are computed by combining information on the physicochemical and structural features of a library of congeneric compounds, typically assembled from two or more building blocks, and biological data from one or more in vitro assays. Since the models provide information on features affecting the compounds' biological activity they can be used as guides for further optimization. However, in order for a QSAR model to be relevant to the targeted disease, and drug development in general, the compound library used must contain molecules with balanced variation of the features spanning the chemical space believed to be important for interaction with the biological target. In addition, the assays used must be robust and deliver high quality data that are directly related to the function of the biological target and the associated disease state. In this review, we discuss and exemplify the concept of statistical molecular design (SMD) in the selection of building blocks and final synthetic targets (i.e. compounds to synthesize) to generate information-rich, balanced libraries for biological testing and computation of QSAR models.

  1. Thermal Storage Power Balancing with Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    The method described in this paper balances power production and consumption with a large number of thermal loads. Linear controllers are used for the loads to track a temperature set point, while Model Predictive Control (MPC) and model estimation of the load behavior are used for coordination....... The total power consumption of all loads is controlled indirectly through a real-time price. The MPC incorporates forecasts of the power production and disturbances that influence the loads, e.g. time-varying weather forecasts, in order to react ahead of time. A simulation scenario demonstrates...

  2. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  3. Modelling raster-based monthly water balance components for Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulmen, C.

    2000-11-01

    The terrestrial runoff component is a comparatively small but sensitive and thus significant quantity in the global energy and water cycle at the interface between landmass and atmosphere. As opposed to soil moisture and evapotranspiration which critically determine water vapour fluxes and thus water and energy transport, it can be measured as an integrated quantity over a large area, i.e. the river basin. This peculiarity makes terrestrial runoff ideally suited for the calibration, verification and validation of general circulation models (GCMs). Gauging stations are not homogeneously distributed in space. Moreover, time series are not necessarily continuously measured nor do they in general have overlapping time periods. To overcome this problems with regard to regular grid spacing used in GCMs, different methods can be applied to transform irregular data to regular so called gridded runoff fields. The present work aims to directly compute the gridded components of the monthly water balance (including gridded runoff fields) for Europe by application of the well-established raster-based macro-scale water balance model WABIMON used at the Federal Institute of Hydrology, Germany. Model calibration and validation is performed by separated examination of 29 representative European catchments. Results indicate a general applicability of the model delivering reliable overall patterns and integrated quantities on a monthly basis. For time steps less then too weeks further research and structural improvements of the model are suggested. (orig.)

  4. Spatially balanced topological interaction grants optimal cohesion in flocking models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camperi, Marcelo; Cavagna, Andrea; Giardina, Irene; Parisi, Giorgio; Silvestri, Edmondo

    2012-12-06

    Models of self-propelled particles (SPPs) are an indispensable tool to investigate collective animal behaviour. Originally, SPP models were proposed with metric interactions, where each individual coordinates with neighbours within a fixed metric radius. However, recent experiments on bird flocks indicate that interactions are topological: each individual interacts with a fixed number of neighbours, irrespective of their distance. It has been argued that topological interactions are more robust than metric ones against external perturbations, a significant evolutionary advantage for systems under constant predatory pressure. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing the stability of metric versus topological SPP models in three dimensions. We show that topological models are more stable than metric ones. We also show that a significantly better stability is achieved when neighbours are selected according to a spatially balanced topological rule, namely when interacting neighbours are evenly distributed in angle around the focal individual. Finally, we find that the minimal number of interacting neighbours needed to achieve fully stable cohesion in a spatially balanced model is compatible with the value observed in field experiments on starling flocks.

  5. Diagnostic and correction of chronic-biological mis-balances of population at radiation injuries in regions with increased radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncharova, T.G.; Vasil'eva, G.S.

    2003-01-01

    It was shown the possibility of bio-indication of population irradiation and its rehabilitation by estimation of chronic biological mis-balances and correction realization. Investigation were accomplished on people contingent living at the former Semipalatinsk test site

  6. A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between

  7. Simulation model of load balancing in distributed computing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botygin, I. A.; Popov, V. N.; Frolov, S. G.

    2017-02-01

    The availability of high-performance computing, high speed data transfer over the network and widespread of software for the design and pre-production in mechanical engineering have led to the fact that at the present time the large industrial enterprises and small engineering companies implement complex computer systems for efficient solutions of production and management tasks. Such computer systems are generally built on the basis of distributed heterogeneous computer systems. The analytical problems solved by such systems are the key models of research, but the system-wide problems of efficient distribution (balancing) of the computational load and accommodation input, intermediate and output databases are no less important. The main tasks of this balancing system are load and condition monitoring of compute nodes, and the selection of a node for transition of the user’s request in accordance with a predetermined algorithm. The load balancing is one of the most used methods of increasing productivity of distributed computing systems through the optimal allocation of tasks between the computer system nodes. Therefore, the development of methods and algorithms for computing optimal scheduling in a distributed system, dynamically changing its infrastructure, is an important task.

  8. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  9. Signature of balancing selection at the MC1R gene in Kunming dog populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-dong Wang

    Full Text Available Coat color in dog breeds is an excellent character for revealing the power of artificial selection, as it is extremely diverse and likely the result of recent domestication. Coat color is generated by melanocytes, which synthesize pheomelanin (a red or yellow pigment or eumelanin (a black or brown pigment through the pigment type-switching pathway, and is regulated by three genes in dogs: MC1R (melanocortin receptor 1, CBD103 (β-defensin 103, and ASIP (agouti-signaling protein precursor. The genotypes of these three gene loci in dog breeds are associated with coat color pattern. Here, we resequenced these three gene loci in two Kunming dog populations and analyzed these sequences using population genetic approaches to identify evolutionary patterns that have occurred at these loci during the recent domestication and breeding of the Kunming dog. The analysis showed that MC1R undergoes balancing selection in both Kunming dog populations, and that the Fst value for MC1R indicates significant genetic differentiation across the two populations. In contrast, similar results were not observed for CBD103 or ASIP. These results suggest that high heterozygosity and allelic differences at the MC1R locus may explain both the mixed color coat, of yellow and black, and the difference in coat colors in both Kunming dog populations.

  10. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  11. Energy balance of forage consumption by phyllophagous insects: optimization model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Tarasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The model of optimal food consumption by phytophagous insects proposed, in which the metabolic costs are presented in the form of two components – the cost of food utilization and costs for proper metabolism of the individuals. Two measures were introduced – the «price» of food conversion and the «price» of biomass synthesis of individuals to assess the effectiveness of food consumption by caterpillars. The proposed approach to the description of food consumption by insects provides the exact solutions of the equation of energy balance of food consumption and determining the effectiveness of consumption and the risk of death of the individual. Experiments on larvae’s feeding in laboratory conditions were carried out to verify the model. Caterpillars of Aporia crataegi L. (Lepidoptera, Pieridae were the research subjects. Supply­demand balance, calculated value of the environmental price of consumption and efficiency of food consumption for each individual were determined from experimental data. It was found that the fertility of the female does not depend on the weight of food consumed by it, but is linearly dependent on the food consumption efficiency index. The greater the efficiency of food consumption by an individual, the higher its fertility. The data obtained in the course of experiments on the feeding caterpillars Aporia crataegi were compared with the data presented in the works of other authors and counted in the proposed model of consumption. Calculations allowed estimation of the critical value of food conversion price below which the energy balance is negative and the existence of an individual is not possible.

  12. A balance principle approach for modeling phase transformation kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, M.; Krauss, G.; Jou, H.J.

    1995-01-01

    A balance principle is offered to model volume fraction kinetics of phase transformation kinetics at a continuum level. This microbalance provides a differential equation for transformation kinetics which is coupled to the differential equations governing the mechanical and thermal aspects of the process. Application here is restricted to diffusive transformations for the sake of clarity, although the principle is discussed for martensitic phase transitions as well. Avrami-type kinetics are shown to result from a special class of energy functions. An illustrative example using a 0.5% C Chromium steel demonstrates how TTT and CCT curves can be generated using a particularly simple effective energy function. (orig.)

  13. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not limited to a certain type of balancing, and they are applicable for different types of balancing corresponding to different equations, like Lyapunov or Riccati equations. The results obtained are ...

  14. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  15. Models and mechanisms of IPTV VоD traffic balancing

    OpenAIRE

    Klymash, Mykhailo; Hayali, Yasser; Lavriv, Orest

    2012-01-01

    Models for traffic balancing that enable to evaluate the current IPTV traffic balancing mechanisms are suggested in this paper. Also, an analysis of each of these mechanisms is performed using the IPTV traffic model. Запропоновано моделі балансування трафіку IPTV VoD для оцінки існуючих механізмів балансування. Проведено аналіз кожного з цих механізмів за допомогою моделі IPTV трафіку....

  16. Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

    2017-04-01

    The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies

  17. The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Christian R.; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2017-11-01

    Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with the SNOWPACK model for the GrIS and over the period 1960-2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. Evaluations of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model-observation agreement. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt (0.16 m w.e. a-1) during 1990-2014. As a response, refreezing and run-off also indicate positive changes during this period (0.05 and 0.11 m w.e. a-1, respectively), where refreezing increases at only half the rate of run-off, implying that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. This pattern of refreeze and run-off is spatially variable. For instance, in the south-eastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. Modelled increase in refreezing leads to a decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases are more gradual and are associated with the migration of firn aquifers to higher elevations.

  18. Construction and completion of flux balance models from pathway databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latendresse, Mario; Krummenacker, Markus; Trupp, Miles; Karp, Peter D

    2012-02-01

    Flux balance analysis (FBA) is a well-known technique for genome-scale modeling of metabolic flux. Typically, an FBA formulation requires the accurate specification of four sets: biochemical reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secreted metabolites. The development of FBA models can be time consuming and tedious because of the difficulty in assembling completely accurate descriptions of these sets, and in identifying errors in the composition of these sets. For example, the presence of a single non-producible metabolite in the biomass will make the entire model infeasible. Other difficulties in FBA modeling are that model distributions, and predicted fluxes, can be cryptic and difficult to understand. We present a multiple gap-filling method to accelerate the development of FBA models using a new tool, called MetaFlux, based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The method suggests corrections to the sets of reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secretions. The method generates FBA models directly from Pathway/Genome Databases. Thus, FBA models developed in this framework are easily queried and visualized using the Pathway Tools software. Predicted fluxes are more easily comprehended by visualizing them on diagrams of individual metabolic pathways or of metabolic maps. MetaFlux can also remove redundant high-flux loops, solve FBA models once they are generated and model the effects of gene knockouts. MetaFlux has been validated through construction of FBA models for Escherichia coli and Homo sapiens. Pathway Tools with MetaFlux is freely available to academic users, and for a fee to commercial users. Download from: biocyc.org/download.shtml. mario.latendresse@sri.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  19. Calibration of a surface mass balance model for global-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R. H.; Oerlemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Global applications of surface mass balance models have large uncertainties, as a result of poor climate input data and limited availability of mass balance measurements. This study addresses several possible consequences of these limitations for the modelled mass balance. This is done by applying a

  20. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not

  1. MICB gene diversity and balancing selection on its promoter region in Yao population in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiang; Liu, Xuexiang; Wei, Xiaomou; Meng, Yuming; Liu, Limin; Qin, Shini; Liu, Yanyu; Dai, Shengming

    2016-12-01

    To comprehensively examine the MICB gene polymorphism and identify its differences in Chinese Yao population from other ethnic groups, we investigated the polymorphism in the 5'-upstream regulation region (5'-URR), coding region (exons 2-4), and the 3'-untranslated region (3'-UTR) of MICB gene by using PCR-SBT method in 125 healthy unrelated Yao individuals in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Higher polymorphism was observed in the 5'-URR, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a two base pairs deletion at position -139/-138 were found in our study. Only five different variation sites, however, were detected in exons 2-4 and three were observed in the 3'-UTR. The minor allele frequencies of all variants were greater than 5%, except for rs3828916, rs3131639, rs45627734, rs113620316, rs779737471, and the variation at position +11803 in the 3'-UTR. The first nine SNPs of 5'-URR and rs1065075, rs1051788 of the coding region showed significant linkage disequilibrium with each other. Ten different MICB extended haplotypes (EH) encompassing the 5'-URR, exons 2-4, and 3'-UTR were found in this population, and the most frequent was EH1 (23.2%). We provided several evidences for balancing selection effect on the 5'-URR of MICB gene in Yao population. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troch, Peter A.; Mancini, Marco; Paniconi, Claudio; Wood, Eric F.

    1993-01-01

    The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

  3. Mechanical Balance Laws for Boussinesq Models of Surface Water Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Alfatih; Kalisch, Henrik

    2012-06-01

    Depth-integrated long-wave models, such as the shallow-water and Boussinesq equations, are standard fare in the study of small amplitude surface waves in shallow water. While the shallow-water theory features conservation of mass, momentum and energy for smooth solutions, mechanical balance equations are not widely used in Boussinesq scaling, and it appears that the expressions for many of these quantities are not known. This work presents a systematic derivation of mass, momentum and energy densities and fluxes associated with a general family of Boussinesq systems. The derivation is based on a reconstruction of the velocity field and the pressure in the fluid column below the free surface, and the derivation of differential balance equations which are of the same asymptotic validity as the evolution equations. It is shown that all these mechanical quantities can be expressed in terms of the principal dependent variables of the Boussinesq system: the surface excursion η and the horizontal velocity w at a given level in the fluid.

  4. A Generic Water Balance Model for a Trench Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Choi, Hee Joo

    2016-01-01

    To quantify the exposure dose rates from the nuclide release and transport through the various pathways possible in the near- and far-fields of the LILW repository system, various scenarios are to be conveniently simulated in a straightforward manner and extensively with this GoldSim model, as similarly developed for other various types of repositories in previous studies. Through this study, a result from four scenario cases, each of which is or is not associated with water balance, are compared to each other to see what happens in different cases in which an overflow over a trench rooftop, stochastic rainfall on the trench cover, and an unsaturated flow scheme under the trench bottom are combined. The other two latter elements vary periodically owing to stochastic behavior of the time series data for the past rain-fall records. This program is ready for a total system performance assessment and is able to deterministically and probabilistically evaluate the nuclide release from a repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various scenarios that can occur after a failure of waste packages with associated uncertainty. An illustration conducted through a study with a new water balance scheme shows the possibility of a stochastic evaluation associated with the stochastic behavior and various pathways that happen around the trench repository.

  5. A Generic Water Balance Model for a Trench Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Choi, Hee Joo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To quantify the exposure dose rates from the nuclide release and transport through the various pathways possible in the near- and far-fields of the LILW repository system, various scenarios are to be conveniently simulated in a straightforward manner and extensively with this GoldSim model, as similarly developed for other various types of repositories in previous studies. Through this study, a result from four scenario cases, each of which is or is not associated with water balance, are compared to each other to see what happens in different cases in which an overflow over a trench rooftop, stochastic rainfall on the trench cover, and an unsaturated flow scheme under the trench bottom are combined. The other two latter elements vary periodically owing to stochastic behavior of the time series data for the past rain-fall records. This program is ready for a total system performance assessment and is able to deterministically and probabilistically evaluate the nuclide release from a repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various scenarios that can occur after a failure of waste packages with associated uncertainty. An illustration conducted through a study with a new water balance scheme shows the possibility of a stochastic evaluation associated with the stochastic behavior and various pathways that happen around the trench repository.

  6. Task oriented training improves the balance outcome & reducing fall risk in diabetic population

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazal, Javeria; Malik, Arshad Nawaz; Amjad, Imran

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The objective was to determine the balance impairments and to compare task oriented versus traditional balance training in fall reduction among diabetic patients. Methods: The randomized control trial with descriptive survey and 196 diabetic patients were recruited to assess balance impairments through purposive sampling technique. Eighteen patients were randomly allocated into two groups; task oriented balance training group TOB (n=8) and traditional balance training group TBT (n...

  7. Oral administration of kefiran induces changes in the balance of immune cells in a murine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrano, Micaela; Racedo, Silvia M; Rolny, Ivanna S; Abraham, Analía G; Pérez, Pablo F

    2011-05-25

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the oral administration of kefiran on the balance of immune cells in a murine model. Six week old BALB/c mice were treated with kefiran (300 mg/L) for 0, 2 and 7 days. Kefiran treatment increased the number of IgA+ cells in lamina propria after 2 and 7 days. Percentage of B220+/MHCII(high) cells in mesenteric lymph nodes (2 days) and Peyer's patches (7 days) was higher compared to untreated control mice. An increase of macrophages (F4/80+ cells) was observed in lamina propria and peritoneal cavity (2 and 7 days). In contrast, at day 7, macrophage population decreased in Peyer's patches. These results show the ability of kefiran to modify the balance of immune cells in intestinal mucosa. This property could be highly relevant for the comprehension of the probiotic effect attributed to kefir.

  8. A moment projection method for population balance dynamics with a shrinkage term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Shaohua [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Yapp, Edward K.Y.; Akroyd, Jethro; Mosbach, Sebastian [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Xu, Rong [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore); Yang, Wenming [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore)

    2017-02-01

    A new method of moments for solving the population balance equation is developed and presented. The moment projection method (MPM) is numerically simple and easy to implement and attempts to address the challenge of particle shrinkage due to processes such as oxidation, evaporation or dissolution. It directly solves the moment transport equation for the moments and tracks the number of the smallest particles using the algorithm by Blumstein and Wheeler (1973) . The performance of the new method is measured against the method of moments (MOM) and the hybrid method of moments (HMOM). The results suggest that MPM performs much better than MOM and HMOM where shrinkage is dominant. The new method predicts mean quantities which are almost as accurate as a high-precision stochastic method calculated using the established direct simulation algorithm (DSA).

  9. Exact solutions of the population balance equation including particle transport, using group analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Fubiao; Meleshko, Sergey V.; Flood, Adrian E.

    2018-06-01

    The population balance equation (PBE) has received an unprecedented amount of attention in recent years from both academics and industrial practitioners because of its long history, widespread use in engineering, and applicability to a wide variety of particulate and discrete-phase processes. However it is typically impossible to obtain analytical solutions, although in almost every case a numerical solution of the PBEs can be obtained. In this article, the symmetries of PBEs with homogeneous coagulation kernels involving aggregation, breakage and growth processes and particle transport in one dimension are found by direct solving the determining equations. Using the optimal system of one and two-dimensional subalgebras, all invariant solutions and reduced equations are obtained. In particular, an explicit analytical physical solution is also presented.

  10. Population genomic scan for candidate signatures of balancing selection to guide antigen characterization in malaria parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amambua-Ngwa, Alfred; Tetteh, Kevin K A; Manske, Magnus; Gomez-Escobar, Natalia; Stewart, Lindsay B; Deerhake, M Elizabeth; Cheeseman, Ian H; Newbold, Christopher I; Holder, Anthony A; Knuepfer, Ellen; Janha, Omar; Jallow, Muminatou; Campino, Susana; Macinnis, Bronwyn; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P; Conway, David J

    2012-01-01

    Acquired immunity in vertebrates maintains polymorphisms in endemic pathogens, leading to identifiable signatures of balancing selection. To comprehensively survey for genes under such selection in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, we generated paired-end short-read sequences of parasites in clinical isolates from an endemic Gambian population, which were mapped to the 3D7 strain reference genome to yield high-quality genome-wide coding sequence data for 65 isolates. A minority of genes did not map reliably, including the hypervariable var, rifin, and stevor families, but 5,056 genes (90.9% of all in the genome) had >70% sequence coverage with minimum read depth of 5 for at least 50 isolates, of which 2,853 genes contained 3 or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for analysis of polymorphic site frequency spectra. Against an overall background of negatively skewed frequencies, as expected from historical population expansion combined with purifying selection, the outlying minority of genes with signatures indicating exceptionally intermediate frequencies were identified. Comparing genes with different stage-specificity, such signatures were most common in those with peak expression at the merozoite stage that invades erythrocytes. Members of clag, PfMC-2TM, surfin, and msp3-like gene families were highly represented, the strongest signature being in the msp3-like gene PF10_0355. Analysis of msp3-like transcripts in 45 clinical and 11 laboratory adapted isolates grown to merozoite-containing schizont stages revealed surprisingly low expression of PF10_0355. In diverse clonal parasite lines the protein product was expressed in a minority of mature schizonts (<1% in most lines and ∼10% in clone HB3), and eight sub-clones of HB3 cultured separately had an intermediate spectrum of positive frequencies (0.9 to 7.5%), indicating phase variable expression of this polymorphic antigen. This and other identified targets of balancing selection are now

  11. Population genomic scan for candidate signatures of balancing selection to guide antigen characterization in malaria parasites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Amambua-Ngwa

    Full Text Available Acquired immunity in vertebrates maintains polymorphisms in endemic pathogens, leading to identifiable signatures of balancing selection. To comprehensively survey for genes under such selection in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, we generated paired-end short-read sequences of parasites in clinical isolates from an endemic Gambian population, which were mapped to the 3D7 strain reference genome to yield high-quality genome-wide coding sequence data for 65 isolates. A minority of genes did not map reliably, including the hypervariable var, rifin, and stevor families, but 5,056 genes (90.9% of all in the genome had >70% sequence coverage with minimum read depth of 5 for at least 50 isolates, of which 2,853 genes contained 3 or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs for analysis of polymorphic site frequency spectra. Against an overall background of negatively skewed frequencies, as expected from historical population expansion combined with purifying selection, the outlying minority of genes with signatures indicating exceptionally intermediate frequencies were identified. Comparing genes with different stage-specificity, such signatures were most common in those with peak expression at the merozoite stage that invades erythrocytes. Members of clag, PfMC-2TM, surfin, and msp3-like gene families were highly represented, the strongest signature being in the msp3-like gene PF10_0355. Analysis of msp3-like transcripts in 45 clinical and 11 laboratory adapted isolates grown to merozoite-containing schizont stages revealed surprisingly low expression of PF10_0355. In diverse clonal parasite lines the protein product was expressed in a minority of mature schizonts (<1% in most lines and ∼10% in clone HB3, and eight sub-clones of HB3 cultured separately had an intermediate spectrum of positive frequencies (0.9 to 7.5%, indicating phase variable expression of this polymorphic antigen. This and other identified targets of balancing

  12. Modeling and analysis of linear hyperbolic systems of balance laws

    CERN Document Server

    Bartecki, Krzysztof

    2016-01-01

    This monograph focuses on the mathematical modeling of distributed parameter systems in which mass/energy transport or wave propagation phenomena occur and which are described by partial differential equations of hyperbolic type. The case of linear (or linearized) 2 x 2 hyperbolic systems of balance laws is considered, i.e., systems described by two coupled linear partial differential equations with two variables representing physical quantities, depending on both time and one-dimensional spatial variable. Based on practical examples of a double-pipe heat exchanger and a transportation pipeline, two typical configurations of boundary input signals are analyzed: collocated, wherein both signals affect the system at the same spatial point, and anti-collocated, in which the input signals are applied to the two different end points of the system. The results of this book emerge from the practical experience of the author gained during his studies conducted in the experimental installation of a heat exchange cente...

  13. A performance measurement using balanced scorecard and structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosha Makvandi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, balanced scorecard (BSC has been widely used as a promising method for performance measurement. BSC studies organizations in terms of four perspectives including customer, internal processes, learning and growth and financial figures. This paper presents a hybrid of BSC and structural equation modeling (SEM to measure the performance of an Iranian university in province of Alborz, Iran. The proposed study of this paper uses this conceptual method, designs a questionnaire and distributes it among some university students and professors. Using SEM technique, the survey analyzes the data and the results indicate that the university did poorly in terms of all four perspectives. The survey extracts necessary target improvement by presenting necessary attributes for performance improvement.

  14. Task oriented training improves the balance outcome & reducing fall risk in diabetic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazal, Javeria; Malik, Arshad Nawaz; Amjad, Imran

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to determine the balance impairments and to compare task oriented versus traditional balance training in fall reduction among diabetic patients. The randomized control trial with descriptive survey and 196 diabetic patients were recruited to assess balance impairments through purposive sampling technique. Eighteen patients were randomly allocated into two groups; task oriented balance training group TOB (n=8) and traditional balance training group TBT (n=10). The inclusion criteria were 30-50 years age bracket and diagnosed cases of Diabetes Mellitus with neuropathy. The demographics were taken through standardized & valid assessment tools include Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach Test. The measurements were obtained at baseline, after 04 and 08 weeks of training. The mean age of the participants was 49 ±6.79. The result shows that 165(84%) were at moderate risk of fall and 31(15%) were at mild risk of fall among total 196 diabetic patients. There was significant improvement (p balance training group for dynamic balance, anticipatory balance and reactive balance after 8 weeks of training as compare to traditional balance training. Task oriented balance training is effective in improving the dynamic, anticipator and reactive balance. The task oriented training reduces the risk of falling through enhancing balance outcome.

  15. Balance ability of 7 and 10 year old children in the population: results from a large UK birth cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphriss, Rachel; Hall, Amanda; May, Margaret; Macleod, John

    2011-01-01

    The literature contains many reports of balance function in children, but these are often on atypical samples taken from hospital-based clinics and may not be generalisable to the population as a whole. The purpose of the present study is to describe balance test results from a large UK-based birth cohort study. Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were analysed. A total of 5402 children completed the heel-to-toe walking test at age 7 years. At age 10 years, 6915 children underwent clinical tests of balance including beam-walking, standing heel-to-toe on a beam and standing on one leg. A proportion of the children returned to the clinic for retesting within 3 months allowing test-retest agreement to be measured. Frequency distributions for each of the balance tests are given. Correlations between measures of dynamic balance at ages 7 and 10 years were weak. The static balance of 10 year old children was found to be poorer with eyes closed than with eyes open, and poorer in boys than in girls for all measures. Balance on one leg was poorer than heel-to-toe balance on a beam. A significant learning effect was found when first and second attempts of the tests were compared. Measures of static and dynamic balance appeared independent. Consistent with previous reports in the literature, test-retest reliability was found to be low. This study provides information about the balance ability of children aged 7 and 10 years and provides clinicians with reference data for balance tests commonly used in the paediatric clinic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  17. Sex in an uncertain world: environmental stochasticity helps restore competitive balance between sexually and asexually reproducing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, A W; Vandekerkhove, J; Michalakis, Y

    2014-08-01

    Like many organisms, individuals of the freshwater ostracod species Eucypris virens exhibit either obligate sexual or asexual reproductive modes. Both types of individual routinely co-occur, including in the same temporary freshwater pond (their natural habitat in which they undergo seasonal diapause). Given the well-known two-fold cost of sex, this begs the question of how sexually reproducing individuals are able to coexist with their asexual counterparts in spite of such overwhelming costs. Environmental stochasticity in the form of 'false dawn' inundations (where the first hydration is ephemeral and causes loss of early hatching individuals) may provide an advantage to the sexual subpopulation, which shows greater variation in hatching times following inundation. We explore the potential role of environmental stochasticity in this system using life-history data analysis, climate data, and matrix projection models. In the absence of environmental stochasticity, the population growth rate is significantly lower in sexual subpopulations. Climate data reveal that 'false dawn' inundations are common. Using matrix projection modelling with and without environmental stochasticity, we demonstrate that this phenomenon can restore appreciable balance to the system, in terms of population growth rates. This provides support for the role of environmental stochasticity in helping to explain the maintenance of sex and the occurrence of geographical parthenogenesis. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  18. Integrated model for line balancing with workstation inventory management

    OpenAIRE

    Dilip Roy; Debdip khan

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we address the optimization of an integrated line balancing process with workstation inventory management. While doing so, we have studied the interconnection between line balancing and its conversion process. Almost each and every moderate to large manufacturing industry depends on a long and integrated supply chain, consisting of inbound logistic, conversion process and outbound logistic. In this sense an approach addresses a very general problem of integrated line balancing....

  19. Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

  20. A Monthly Water-Balance Model Driven By a Graphical User Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.

    2007-01-01

    This report describes a monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface, referred to as the Thornthwaite monthly water-balance program. Computations of monthly water-balance components of the hydrologic cycle are made for a specified location. The program can be used as a research tool, an assessment tool, and a tool for classroom instruction.

  1. Balancing reserves within a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050. From market developments to model insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, Casimir

    2017-01-01

    This paper expands the discussion about future balancing reserve provision to the long-term perspective of 2050. Most pathways for a transformation towards a decarbonized electricity sector rely on very high shares of fluctuating renewables. This can be a challenge for the provision of balancing reserves, although their influence on the balancing cost is unclear. Apart from the transformation of the generation portfolio, various technical and regulatory developments within the balancing framework might further influence balancing costs: i) dynamic dimensioning of balancing reserves, ii) provision by fluctuating renewables or new (battery) storage technologies, and iii) exchange of balancing reserves between balancing zones. The first part of this paper discusses and transforms these developments into quantitative scenario definitions. The second part applies these scenarios to dynELMOD (dynamic Electricity Model), an investment model of the European electricity system that is extended to include balancing reserve provision. In contrast to other models applied in most papers on balancing reserves, this model is capable of evaluating the interdependencies between developments in balancing reserve provision and high shares of fluctuating renewables jointly. The results show that balancing reserve cost can be kept at current levels for a renewable electricity system until 2050, when using a dynamic reserve sizing horizon. Apart from the sizing horizon, storage capacity withholding duration and additional balancing demand from RES are the main driver of balancing costs. Renewables participation in balancing provision is mainly important for negative reserves, while storages play an important role for the provision of positive reserves. However, only on very few occasions, additional storage investments are required for balancing reserve provision, as most of the time sufficient storage capacities are available in the electricity system.

  2. Balancing reserves within a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050. From market developments to model insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenz, Casimir [German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Energy, Transportation, Environment; Univ. of Technology, Berlin (Germany). Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP)

    2017-03-30

    This paper expands the discussion about future balancing reserve provision to the long-term perspective of 2050. Most pathways for a transformation towards a decarbonized electricity sector rely on very high shares of fluctuating renewables. This can be a challenge for the provision of balancing reserves, although their influence on the balancing cost is unclear. Apart from the transformation of the generation portfolio, various technical and regulatory developments within the balancing framework might further influence balancing costs: i) dynamic dimensioning of balancing reserves, ii) provision by fluctuating renewables or new (battery) storage technologies, and iii) exchange of balancing reserves between balancing zones. The first part of this paper discusses and transforms these developments into quantitative scenario definitions. The second part applies these scenarios to dynELMOD (dynamic Electricity Model), an investment model of the European electricity system that is extended to include balancing reserve provision. In contrast to other models applied in most papers on balancing reserves, this model is capable of evaluating the interdependencies between developments in balancing reserve provision and high shares of fluctuating renewables jointly. The results show that balancing reserve cost can be kept at current levels for a renewable electricity system until 2050, when using a dynamic reserve sizing horizon. Apart from the sizing horizon, storage capacity withholding duration and additional balancing demand from RES are the main driver of balancing costs. Renewables participation in balancing provision is mainly important for negative reserves, while storages play an important role for the provision of positive reserves. However, only on very few occasions, additional storage investments are required for balancing reserve provision, as most of the time sufficient storage capacities are available in the electricity system.

  3. Cognitive balanced model: a conceptual scheme of diagnostic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucchiari, Claudio; Pravettoni, Gabriella

    2012-02-01

    Diagnostic reasoning is a critical aspect of clinical performance, having a high impact on quality and safety of care. Although diagnosis is fundamental in medicine, we still have a poor understanding of the factors that determine its course. According to traditional understanding, all information used in diagnostic reasoning is objective and logically driven. However, these conditions are not always met. Although we would be less likely to make an inaccurate diagnosis when following rational decision making, as described by normative models, the real diagnostic process works in a different way. Recent work has described the major cognitive biases in medicine as well as a number of strategies for reducing them, collectively called debiasing techniques. However, advances have encountered obstacles in achieving implementation into clinical practice. While traditional understanding of clinical reasoning has failed to consider contextual factors, most debiasing techniques seem to fail in raising sound and safer medical praxis. Technological solutions, being data driven, are fundamental in increasing care safety, but they need to consider human factors. Thus, balanced models, cognitive driven and technology based, are needed in day-to-day applications to actually improve the diagnostic process. The purpose of this article, then, is to provide insight into cognitive influences that have resulted in wrong, delayed or missed diagnosis. Using a cognitive approach, we describe the basis of medical error, with particular emphasis on diagnostic error. We then propose a conceptual scheme of the diagnostic process by the use of fuzzy cognitive maps. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  5. Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

    2013-02-01

    A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

  6. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  7. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  8. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  9. Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Machguth, H.; Purves, R.S.; Oerlemans, J.; Hoelzle, M.; Paul, F.

    2008-01-01

    By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was

  10. Midlatitude Forcing Mechanisms for Glacier Mass Balance Investigated Using General Circulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2001-01-01

    A process-oriented modeling approach is applied in order to simulate glacier mass balance for individual glaciers using statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs). Glacier-specific seasonal sensitivity characteristics based on a mass balance model of intermediate complexity are used

  11. The effect of hitch-hiking on genes linked to a balanced polymorphism in a subdivided population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schierup, M H; Charlesworth, D; Vekemans, X

    2000-01-01

    types of subdivision are present: (1) into demes (connected by migration), and (2) into classes defined by different functional alleles at the selected locus (connected by recombination). Previous theoretical studies of each type of subdivision separately have shown that each increases diversity...... to detect balancing selection by its effects on linked variation, using tests such as Tajima's D, is reduced when genes in a subdivided population are sampled from the total population, rather than within demes. Udgivelsesdato: 2000-Aug...

  12. Experimental evaluation of the power balance model of speed skating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Koning, Jos J; Foster, Carl; Lampen, Joanne; Hettinga, Floor; Bobbert, Maarten F

    2005-01-01

    Prediction of speed skating performance with a power balance model requires assumptions about the kinetics of energy production, skating efficiency, and skating technique. The purpose of this study was to evaluate these parameters during competitive imitations for the purpose of improving model predictions. Elite speed skaters (n = 8) performed races and submaximal efficiency tests. External power output (P(o)) was calculated from movement analysis and aerodynamic models and ice friction measurements. Aerobic kinetics was calculated from breath-by-breath oxygen uptake (Vo(2)). Aerobic power (P(aer)) was calculated from measured skating efficiency. Anaerobic power (P(an)) kinetics was determined by subtracting P(aer) from P(o). We found gross skating efficiency to be 15.8% (1.8%). In the 1,500-m event, the kinetics of P(an) was characterized by a first-order system as P(an) = 88 + 556e(-0.0494t) (in W, where t is time). The rate constant for the increase in P(aer) was -0.153 s(-1), the time delay was 8.7 s, and the peak P(aer) was 234 W; P(aer) was equal to 234[1 - e(-0.153(t-8.7))] (in W). Skating position changed with preextension knee angle increasing and trunk angle decreasing throughout the event. We concluded the pattern of P(aer) to be quite similar to that reported during other competitive imitations, with the exception that the increase in P(aer) was more rapid. The pattern of P(an) does not appear to fit an "all-out" pattern, with near zero values during the last portion of the event, as assumed in our previous model (De Koning JJ, de Groot G, and van Ingen Schenau GJ. J Biomech 25: 573-580, 1992). Skating position changed in ways different from those assumed in our previous model. In addition to allowing improved predictions, the results demonstrate the importance of observations in unique subjects to the process of model construction.

  13. From Performance Measurement to Strategic Management Model: Balanced Scorecard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cihat Savsar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In Today’s competitive markets, one of the main conditions of the surviving of enterprises is the necessity to have effective performance management systems. Decisions must be taken by the management according to the performance of assets. In the transition from industrial society to information society, the presence of business structures have changed and the values of non-financial assets have increased in this period. So some systems have emerged based on intangible assets and to measure them instead of tangible assets and their measurements. With economic and technological development multi-dimensional evaluation in the business couldn’t be sufficient.  Performance evaluation methods can be applied in business with an integrated approach by its accordance with business strategy, linking to reward system and cause effects link established between performance measures. Balanced scorecard is one of the commonly used in measurement methods. While it was used for the first time in 1992 as a performance measurement tool today it has been used as a strategic management model besides its conventional uses. BSC contains customer perspective, internal perspective and learning and growth perspective besides financial perspective. Learning and growth perspective is determinant of other perspectives. In order to achieve the objectives set out in the financial perspective in other dimensions that need to be accomplished, is emphasized. Establishing a causal link between performance measures and targets how to achieve specified goals with strategy maps are described.

  14. Balanced sparse model for tight frames in compressed sensing magnetic resonance imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsong Liu

    Full Text Available Compressed sensing has shown to be promising to accelerate magnetic resonance imaging. In this new technology, magnetic resonance images are usually reconstructed by enforcing its sparsity in sparse image reconstruction models, including both synthesis and analysis models. The synthesis model assumes that an image is a sparse combination of atom signals while the analysis model assumes that an image is sparse after the application of an analysis operator. Balanced model is a new sparse model that bridges analysis and synthesis models by introducing a penalty term on the distance of frame coefficients to the range of the analysis operator. In this paper, we study the performance of the balanced model in tight frame based compressed sensing magnetic resonance imaging and propose a new efficient numerical algorithm to solve the optimization problem. By tuning the balancing parameter, the new model achieves solutions of three models. It is found that the balanced model has a comparable performance with the analysis model. Besides, both of them achieve better results than the synthesis model no matter what value the balancing parameter is. Experiment shows that our proposed numerical algorithm constrained split augmented Lagrangian shrinkage algorithm for balanced model (C-SALSA-B converges faster than previously proposed algorithms accelerated proximal algorithm (APG and alternating directional method of multipliers for balanced model (ADMM-B.

  15. Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

    2017-01-01

    It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

  16. Key performance indicators in hospital based on balanced scorecard model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Rahimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Performance measurement is receiving increasing verification all over the world. Nowadays in a lot of organizations, irrespective of their type or size, performance evaluation is the main concern and a key issue for top administrators. The purpose of this study is to organize suitable key performance indicators (KPIs for hospitals’ performance evaluation based on the balanced scorecard (BSC. Method: This is a mixed method study. In order to identify the hospital’s performance indicators (HPI, first related literature was reviewed and then the experts’ panel and Delphi method were used. In this study, two rounds were needed for the desired level of consensus. The experts rated the importance of the indicators, on a five-point Likert scale. In the consensus calculation, the consensus percentage was calculated by classifying the values 1-3 as not important (0 and 4-5 to (1 as important. Simple additive weighting technique was used to rank the indicators and select hospital’s KPIs. The data were analyzed by Excel 2010 software. Results: About 218 indicators were obtained from a review of selected literature. Through internal expert panel, 77 indicators were selected. Finally, 22 were selected for KPIs of hospitals. Ten indicators were selected in internal process perspective and 5, 4, and 3 indicators in finance, learning and growth, and customer, respectively. Conclusion: This model can be a useful tool for evaluating and comparing the performance of hospitals. However, this model is flexible and can be adjusted according to differences in the target hospitals. This study can be beneficial for hospital administrators and it can help them to change their perspective about performance evaluation.

  17. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  18. The Balance and Recycle Process Models - Uncertainty, Estimations and Approximations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vrba, Josef

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 5 (2003), s. 601-624 ISSN 0232-9298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4072921 Keywords : balance matrix * recycle process matrix * matrix inverse estimation Subject RIV: CI - Industrial Chemistry, Chemical Engineering

  19. A January angular momentum balance in the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.-W.; Grady, W.

    1982-01-01

    The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of the atmospheric angular momentum balance, based on the simulation data of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). An attempt is also made to gain an understanding of the involved processes. Preliminary results on the angular momentum and mass balance in the AGCM are shown. The basic equations are examined, and questions of turbulent momentum transfer are investigated. The methods of analysis are discussed, taking into account time-averaged balance equations, time and longitude-averaged balance equations, mean meridional circulation, the mean meridional balance of relative angular momentum, and standing and transient components of motion.

  20. Ubuntu-Praxis: Re-Modelling the Balanced Scorecard Model at a University, an Afrocentric Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndoda, Gladys Ruvimbo; Sikwila, Mike Nyamazana

    2014-01-01

    The authors design the innovation and learning perspective of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) of "Ubuntu and client service charter nexus." This article borrows and advances the research carried out by Khomba, Vermaak and Gouws (2011). The point of departure is on praxis of ubuntu/unhu as a holistic approach in the re-modelling of the BSC…

  1. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  2. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  3. Applying an orographic precipitation model to improve mass balance modeling of the Juneau Icefield, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, A. C.; Hock, R.; Schuler, T.; Bieniek, P.; Aschwanden, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mass loss from glaciers in Southeast Alaska is expected to alter downstream ecological systems as runoff patterns change. To investigate these potential changes under future climate scenarios, distributed glacier mass balance modeling is required. However, the spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for glacier mass balance modeling studies must be addressed first. We have used a linear theory of orographic precipitation model to downscale precipitation from both the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ERA-Interim to the Juneau Icefield region over the period 1979-2013. This implementation of the LT model is a unique parameterization that relies on the specification of snow fall speed and rain fall speed as tuning parameters to calculate the cloud time delay, τ. We assessed the LT model results by considering winter precipitation so the effect of melt was minimized. The downscaled precipitation pattern produced by the LT model captures the orographic precipitation pattern absent from the coarse resolution WRF and ERA-Interim precipitation fields. Observational data constraints limited our ability to determine a unique parameter combination and calibrate the LT model to glaciological observations. We established a reference run of parameter values based on literature and performed a sensitivity analysis of the LT model parameters, horizontal resolution, and climate input data on the average winter precipitation. The results of the reference run showed reasonable agreement with the available glaciological measurements. The precipitation pattern produced by the LT model was consistent regardless of parameter combination, horizontal resolution, and climate input data, but the precipitation amount varied strongly with these factors. Due to the consistency of the winter precipitation pattern and the uncertainty in precipitation amount, we suggest a precipitation index map approach to be used in combination with

  4. Biofeedback for training balance and mobility tasks in older populations : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zijlstra, Agnes; Mancini, Martina; Chiari, Lorenzo; Zijlstra, Wiebren

    2010-01-01

    Context: An effective application of biofeedback for interventions in older adults with balance and mobility disorders may be compromised due to co-morbidity. Objective: To evaluate the feasibility and the effectiveness of biofeedback-based training of balance and/or mobility in older adults. Data

  5. Identifying footprints of directional and balancing selection in marine and freshwater three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, H S; Cano, J M; Merilä, J

    2008-08-01

    Natural selection is expected to leave an imprint on the neutral polymorphisms at the adjacent genomic regions of a selected gene. While directional selection tends to reduce within-population genetic diversity and increase among-population differentiation, the reverse is expected under balancing selection. To identify targets of natural selection in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) genome, 103 microsatellite and two indel markers including expressed sequence tags (EST) and quantitative trait loci (QTL)-associated loci, were genotyped in four freshwater and three marine populations. The results indicated that a high proportion of loci (14.7%) might be affected by balancing selection and a lower proportion (2.8%) by directional selection. The strongest signatures of directional selection were detected in a microsatellite locus and two indel markers located in the intronic regions of the Eda-gene coding for the number of lateral plates. Yet, other microsatellite loci previously found to be informative in QTL-mapping studies revealed no signatures of selection. Two novel microsatellite loci (Stn12 and Stn90) located in chromosomes I and VIII, respectively, showed signals of directional selection and might be linked to genomic regions containing gene(s) important for adaptive divergence. Although the coverage of the total genomic content was relatively low, the predominance of balancing selection signals is in agreement with the contention that balancing, rather than directional selection is the predominant mode of selection in the wild.

  6. Balancing energy development and conservation: A method utilizing species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Laubhan, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  7. Water balance versus land surface model in the simulation of Rhine river discharges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurkmans, R.T.W.L.; Moel, de H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Troch, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate streamflow simulations in large river basins are crucial to predict timing and magnitude of floods and droughts and to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. Water balance models have been used frequently for these purposes. Compared to water balance models, however, land

  8. Balanced cross-rate model for saturated molecular fluorescence in flames using a nanosecond pulse length laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucht, R.P.; Sweeney, D.W.; Laurendeau, N.M.

    1980-01-01

    The balanced cross-rate model is proposed to analyze laser-induced molecular fluorescence signals when the laser pulse length is of the order of nanoseconds. Nanosecond pulse length lasers. specifically Q-switched Nd:YAG-pumped dye lasers, are attractive for saturated molecular fluorescence spectroscopy because of their high peak power and because of their short pulse length minimizes the risk of laser-induced chemistry. In the balanced cross-rate model, single upper and lower rotational levels are assumed to be directly coupled by the laser radiation. Because the laser-induced processes which couple these levels are so fast at saturation intensities, a steady state is established between the two levels within picoseconds. Provided that the total population of the two laser-coupled rotational levels is constant during the laser pulse, the total molecular population can be calculated from the observed upper rotational level population using a two-level saturation model and Boltzmann statistics. Numerical simulation of the laser excitation dynamics of OH in an atmospheric pressure H 2 /O 2 /N 2 flame indicates that the balanced cross-rate model will give accurate results provided that the rotational relaxation rates in the upper and lower sets of rotational levels are approximately equal

  9. Integrated model for line balancing with workstation inventory management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Roy

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we address the optimization of an integrated line balancing process with workstation inventory management. While doing so, we have studied the interconnection between line balancing and its conversion process. Almost each and every moderate to large manufacturing industry depends on a long and integrated supply chain, consisting of inbound logistic, conversion process and outbound logistic. In this sense an approach addresses a very general problem of integrated line balancing. Research works reported in the literature so far mainly deals with minimization of cost for inbound and outbound logistic subsystems. In most of the cases conversion process has been ignored. We suggest a generic approach for linking the balancing of the line of production in the conversion area with the customers’ rate of demand in the market and for configuring the related stock chambers. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to translate the underlying problem in the form of mixed nonlinear programming problem and design the optimum supply chain so that the total inventory cost and the cost of balancing loss of the conversion process is jointly minimized and ideal cycle time of the production process is determined along with ideal sizes of the stock chambers. A numerical example has been added to demonstrate the suitability of our approach.

  10. Simulation of the water balance of boreal watersheds of northeastern British Columbia, Canada using MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadzadesahraei, S.; Déry, S.; Rex, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Northeastern British Columbia (BC) is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction, largely depending on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which relies on available freshwater. Even though this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. Further, BC statistics predict that the northeastern region's population will increase by 30% over the next 25 years, thereby amplifying the demands of domestic and industrial water usage. Hence, given the increasing demands for surface water in the complex wetlands of northeastern BC, obtaining accurate long-term water balance information is of vital importance. Thus, this study aims to simulate the 1979-2014 water balance at two boreal watersheds using the MIKE SHE model. More specifically, this research intends to quantify the historical, and regional, water budgets and their associated hydrological processes at two boreal watersheds—the Coles Lake and Tsea Lake watersheds—in northeastern BC. The development of coupled groundwater and surface water model of these watersheds are discussed. The model setup, calibration process, and results are presented, focusing on the water balance of boreal watersheds. Hydrological components within these watersheds are quantified through a combination of intensive fieldwork, observational data, analysis and numerical modeling. The output from the model provides important information for decision makers to manage water resources in northeastern BC. Keywords: Northeastern BC; boreal watershed; water balance; MIKE SHE hydrological model.

  11. Modeling of Two-Wheeled Self-Balancing Robot Driven by DC Gearmotors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frankovský P.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at modelling a two-wheeled self-balancing robot driven by the geared DC motors. A mathematical model consists of two main parts, the model of robot’s mechanical structure and the model of the actuator. Linearized equations of motion are derived and the overall model of the two-wheeled self-balancing robot is represented in state-space realization for the purpose of state feedback controller design.

  12. Modeling of Two-Wheeled Self-Balancing Robot Driven by DC Gearmotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankovský, P.; Dominik, L.; Gmiterko, A.; Virgala, I.; Kurylo, P.; Perminova, O.

    2017-08-01

    This paper is aimed at modelling a two-wheeled self-balancing robot driven by the geared DC motors. A mathematical model consists of two main parts, the model of robot's mechanical structure and the model of the actuator. Linearized equations of motion are derived and the overall model of the two-wheeled self-balancing robot is represented in state-space realization for the purpose of state feedback controller design.

  13. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  14. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  15. Development of a simplified urban water balance model (WABILA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrichs, M; Langner, J; Uhl, M

    2016-01-01

    During the last decade, water sensitive urban design (WSUD) has become more and more accepted. However, there is not any simple tool or option available to evaluate the influence of these measures on the local water balance. To counteract the impact of new settlements, planners focus on mitigating increases in runoff through installation of infiltration systems. This leads to an increasing non-natural groundwater recharge and decreased evapotranspiration. Simple software tools which evaluate or simulate the effect of WSUD on the local water balance are still needed. The authors developed a tool named WABILA (Wasserbilanz) that could support planners for optimal WSUD. WABILA is an easy-to-use planning tool that is based on simplified regression functions for established measures and land covers. Results show that WSUD has to be site-specific, based on climate conditions and the natural water balance.

  16. Mathematical model and metaheuristics for simultaneous balancing and sequencing of a robotic mixed-model assembly line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zixiang; Janardhanan, Mukund Nilakantan; Tang, Qiuhua; Nielsen, Peter

    2018-05-01

    This article presents the first method to simultaneously balance and sequence robotic mixed-model assembly lines (RMALB/S), which involves three sub-problems: task assignment, model sequencing and robot allocation. A new mixed-integer programming model is developed to minimize makespan and, using CPLEX solver, small-size problems are solved for optimality. Two metaheuristics, the restarted simulated annealing algorithm and co-evolutionary algorithm, are developed and improved to address this NP-hard problem. The restarted simulated annealing method replaces the current temperature with a new temperature to restart the search process. The co-evolutionary method uses a restart mechanism to generate a new population by modifying several vectors simultaneously. The proposed algorithms are tested on a set of benchmark problems and compared with five other high-performing metaheuristics. The proposed algorithms outperform their original editions and the benchmarked methods. The proposed algorithms are able to solve the balancing and sequencing problem of a robotic mixed-model assembly line effectively and efficiently.

  17. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  18. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  19. Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

    2013-02-01

    A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

  20. Balancing selection and heterogeneity across the classical human leukocyte antigen loci: a meta-analytic review of 497 population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solberg, Owen D; Mack, Steven J; Lancaster, Alex K; Single, Richard M; Tsai, Yingssu; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia; Thomson, Glenys

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a meta-analysis of high-resolution human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele frequency data describing 497 population samples. Most of the datasets were compiled from studies published in eight journals from 1990 to 2007; additional datasets came from the International Histocompatibility Workshops and from the AlleleFrequencies.net database. In all, these data represent approximately 66,800 individuals from throughout the world, providing an opportunity to observe trends that may not have been evident at the time the data were originally analyzed, especially with regard to the relative importance of balancing selection among the HLA loci. Population genetic measures of allele frequency distributions were summarized across populations by locus and geographic region. A role for balancing selection maintaining much of HLA variation was confirmed. Further, the breadth of this meta-analysis allowed the ranking of the HLA loci, with DQA1 and HLA-C showing the strongest balancing selection and DPB1 being compatible with neutrality. Comparisons of the allelic spectra reported by studies since 1990 indicate that most of the HLA alleles identified since 2000 are very-low-frequency alleles. The literature-based allele-count data, as well as maps summarizing the geographic distributions for each allele, are available online.

  1. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  2. Refined energy-balance modelling of a supraglacial pond, Langtang Khola, Nepal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miles, Evan S.; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Willis, Ian C.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Buri, Pascal; Arnold, Neil S.

    2016-01-01

    Supraglacial ponds on debris-covered glaciers present a mechanism of atmosphere/glacier energy transfer that is poorly studied, and only conceptually included in mass-balance studies of debris-covered glaciers. This research advances previous efforts to develop a model of mass and energy balance for

  3. The complexity of role balance: support for the Model of Juggling Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Kiah L; Millsteed, Jeannine; Richmond, Janet E; Falkmer, Marita; Falkmer, Torbjorn; Girdler, Sonya J

    2014-09-01

    This pilot study aimed to establish the appropriateness of the Model of Juggling Occupations in exploring the complex experience of role balance amongst working women with family responsibilities living in Perth, Australia. In meeting this aim, an evaluation was conducted of a case study design, where data were collected through a questionnaire, time diary, and interview. Overall role balance varied over time and across participants. Positive indicators of role balance occurred frequently in the questionnaires and time diaries, despite the interviews revealing a predominance of negative evaluations of role balance. Between-role balance was achieved through compatible role overlap, buffering, and renewal. An exploration of within-role balance factors demonstrated that occupational participation, values, interests, personal causation, and habits were related to role balance. This pilot study concluded that the Model of Juggling Occupations is an appropriate conceptual framework to explore the complex and dynamic experience of role balance amongst working women with family responsibilities. It was also confirmed that the case study design, including the questionnaire, time diary, and interview methods, is suitable for researching role balance from this perspective.

  4. Incorporating Ecosystem Processes Controlling Carbon Balance Into Models of Coupled Human-Natural Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W.; Brown, D. G.; Brunner, A.; Fouladbash, L.; Hadzick, Z.; Hutchins, M.; Kiger, S. E.; Makino, Y.; Nassauer, J. I.; Robinson, D. T.; Riolo, R. L.; Sun, S.

    2012-12-01

    A key element in the study of coupled human-natural systems is the interactions of human populations with vegetation and soils. In human-dominated landscapes, vegetation production and change results from a combination of ecological processes and human decision-making and behavior. Vegetation is often dramatically altered, whether to produce food for humans and livestock, to harvest fiber for construction and other materials, to harvest fuel wood or feedstock for biofuels, or simply for cultural preferences as in the case of residential lawns with sparse trees in the exurban landscape. This alteration of vegetation and its management has a substantial impact on the landscape carbon balance. Models can be used to simulate scenarios in human-natural systems and to examine the integration of processes that determine future trajectories of carbon balance. However, most models of human-natural systems include little integration of the human alteration of vegetation with the ecosystem processes that regulate carbon balance. Here we illustrate a few case studies of pilot-study models that strive for this integration from our research across various types of landscapes. We focus greater detail on a fully developed research model linked to a field study of vegetation and soils in the exurban residential landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. The field study characterized vegetation and soil carbon storage in 5 types of ecological zones. Field-observed carbon storage in the vegetation in these zones ranged widely, from 150 g C/m2 in turfgrass zones, to 6,000 g C/m2 in zones defined as turfgrass with sparse woody vegetation, to 16,000 g C/m2 in a zone defined as dense trees and shrubs. Use of these zones facilitated the scaling of carbon pools to the landscape, where the areal mixtures of zone types had a significant impact on landscape C storage. Use of these zones also facilitated the use of the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC to simulate C trajectories and also

  5. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Möller, M.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.; Pohjola, V.A.; Glowacki, P.; Kohler, J.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available

  6. A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL-II FOR WORK-LIFE BALANCE OF IT PROFESSIONALS IN CHENNAI

    OpenAIRE

    Rashida A. Banu

    2016-01-01

    The study developed and tested a model of work life balance of IT professionals employing structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze the relationship between work place support (WPS) and work interference with personal life (WIPL), personal life interference with work (PLIW), satisfaction with work-life balance (SWLB) and improved effectiveness at work (IEW). The model fit the data well and hypotheses are generally supported. WPS and SWLB are negatively related to WIPL and P...

  7. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  8. Electronic Health Record Effects on Work-Life Balance and Burnout Within the I3 Population Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Sandy L; Robinson, Mark D; Reid, Alfred

    2017-08-01

    Physician burnout is a problem that often is attributed to the use of the electronic health record (EHR). To estimate the prevalence of burnout and work-life balance satisfaction in primary care residents and teaching physicians, and to examine the relationship between these outcomes, EHR use, and other practice and individual factors. Residents and faculty in 19 primary care programs were anonymously surveyed about burnout, work-life balance satisfaction, and EHR use. Additional items included practice size, specialty, EHR characteristics, and demographics. A logistic regression model identified independent factors associated with burnout and work-life balance satisfaction. In total, 585 of 866 surveys (68%) were completed, and 216 (37%) respondents indicated 1 or more symptoms of burnout, with 162 (75%) attributing burnout to the EHR. A total of 310 of 585 (53%) reported dissatisfaction with work-life balance, and 497 (85%) indicated that use of the EHR affected their work-life balance. Respondents who spent more than 6 hours weekly after hours in EHR work were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-4.4) more likely to report burnout and 3.9 times (95% CI 1.9-8.2) more likely to attribute burnout to the EHR. They were 0.33 times (95% CI 0.22-0.49) as likely to report work-life balance satisfaction, and 3.7 times (95% CI 2.1-6.7) more likely to attribute their work-life balance satisfaction to the EHR. More after-hours time spent on the EHR was associated with burnout and less work-life satisfaction in primary care residents and faculty.

  9. Comments to a polar bear population model

    OpenAIRE

    Øritsland, Nils Are

    1985-01-01

    Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.

  10. Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all marker...

  11. Analysis of hohlraum energetics of the SG series and the NIF experiments with energy balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoli Ren

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic energy balance model is applied to analyze the hohlraum energetics data from the Shenguang (SG series laser facilities and the National Ignition Facility (NIF experiments published in the past few years. The analysis shows that the overall hohlraum energetics data are in agreement with the energy balance model within 20% deviation. The 20% deviation might be caused by the diversity in hohlraum parameters, such as material, laser pulse, gas filling density, etc. In addition, the NIF's ignition target designs and our ignition target designs given by simulations are also in accordance with the energy balance model. This work confirms the value of the energy balance model for ignition target design and experimental data assessment, and demonstrates that the NIF energy is enough to achieve ignition if a 1D spherical radiation drive could be created, meanwhile both the laser plasma instabilities and hydrodynamic instabilities could be suppressed.

  12. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  13. Altered excitatory-inhibitory balance in the NMDA-hypofunction model of schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Kehrer

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia is a common psychiatric disorder of high incidence, affecting approximately 1% of the world population. The essential neurotransmitter pathology of schizophrenia remains poorly defined, despite huge advances over the past half-century in identifying neurochemical and pathological abnormalities in the disease. The dopamine/serotonin hypothesis has originally provided much of the momentum for neurochemical research in schizophrenia. In recent years, the attention has, however, shifted to the glutamate system, the major excitatory neurotransmitter in the CNS and towards a concept of functional imbalance between excitatory and inhibitory transmission at the network level in various brain regions in schizophrenia. The evidence indicating a central role for the NMDAreceptor subtype in the etiology of schizophrenia has led to the NMDA-hypofunction model of this disease and the use of phencyclidines as a means to induce the NMDA-hypofunction state in animal models. The purpose of this review is to discuss recent findings highlighting the importance of the NMDA-hypofunction model of schizophrenia, both from a clinical perspective, as well as in opening a line of research, which enables electrophysiological studies at the cellular and network level in vitro. In particular, changes in excitation-inhibition (E/I balance in the NMDA-hypofunction model of the disease and the resulting changes in network behaviours, particularly in gamma frequency oscillatory activity, will be discussed.

  14. Evaluation of water balance in a population of older adults. A case control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, Olga; Poulia, Kalliopi-Anna; Kolyzoi, Kleoniki; Lysandropoulos, Athanasios; Sfendouraki, Kalliopi; Kapsokefalou, Maria

    2018-04-01

    Older adults are at risk for dehydration and its' potentially life-threatening consequences. Unrecognized dehydration can complicate chronic medical problems and increase morbidity. The objective of the study was to estimate water balance, intake and loss in elderly people living in Greece using the Water Balance Questionnaire (WBQ). WBQ was administered in winter to 108 independents (65-81yrs) (Group A), 94 independents (82-92yrs) (Group B) and 51 hospitalized (65-92yrs) (Group C). A database from previous study of 335 adults (18-65yrs) (Control Group) used for comparison. Mean estimates of water balance, intake and loss were, respectively, for Group A -749 ± 1386 mL/day, 2571 ± 739 mL/day and 3320 ± 1216 mL/day, for Group B -38 ± 933 mL/day, 2571 ± 739 mL/day and 3320 ± 1216 mL/day, for Group C 64 ± 1399 mL/day, 2586 ± 1071 mL/day and 2522 ± 1048 mL/day and for Control Group -253 ± 1495 mL/day, 2912 ± 1025 mL/day and 3492 ± 2099 mL/day. Significant differences were detected in water balance, intake and loss (p < 0.01). Water balance and water intake in Group A was the lowest. For Groups A, B, C and Control, contribution of solid foods to water intake was 36%, 29%, 32%, 25%, of drinking water was 32%, 48%, 45%, 47%, of beverages was 32%, 23%, 23% and 28% respectively. Significant differences observed in the contribution of drinking water and beverages (p < 0.01). Group A had lower water balance and water intake. Groups B and C had lower water intake from beverages. Copyright © 2018 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  16. Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Ruprecht, John K.; Viney, Neil R.

    1996-03-01

    A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers.The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.

  17. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  18. Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.

  19. Population admixture, biological invasions and the balance between local adaptation and inbreeding depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, K.J.F.; Macel, M.; Wolfe, L.M.; Biere, A.

    2011-01-01

    When previously isolated populations meet and mix, the resulting admixed population can benefit from several genetic advantages, including increased genetic variation, the creation of novel genotypes and the masking of deleterious mutations. These admixture benefits are thought to play an important

  20. The balance of planting and mortality in a street tree population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara A. Roman; John J. Battles; Joe R. McBride

    2013-01-01

    Street trees have aesthetic, environmental, human health, and economic benefits in urban ecosystems. Street tree populations are constructed by cycles of planting, growth, death, removal and replacement. The goals of this study were to understand how tree mortality and planting rates affect net population growth, evaluate the shape of the mortality curve, and assess...

  1. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  2. Radiatively-driven winds: model improvements, ionization balance and the infared spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castor, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    Recent improvements to theoretical stellar wind models and the results of empirical modelling of the ionization balance and the infrared continuum are discussed. The model of a wind driven by radiation pressure in spectral lines is improved by accounting for overlap of the driving lines, dependence of ionization balance on density, and stellar rotation. These effects produce a softer velocity law than that given by Castor, Abbott and Klein (1975). The ionization balance in zeta Puppis is shown to agree with that estimated for an optically thick wind at a gas temperature of 60,000 K. The ionization model is not unique. The infrared continuum of zeta Pup measured by Barlow and Cohen is fitted to a cool model with a linear rise of velocity with radius; this fit is also not unique. It is concluded that one should try to find a model that fits several kinds of evidence simultaneously. (Auth.)

  3. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...

  4. Effect of Model Selection on Computed Water Balance Components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jhorar, R.K.; Smit, A.A.M.F.R.; Roest, C.W.J.

    2009-01-01

    Soil water flow modelling approaches as used in four selected on-farm water management models, namely CROPWAT. FAIDS, CERES and SWAP, are compared through numerical experiments. The soil water simulation approaches used in the first three models are reformulated to incorporate ail evapotranspiration

  5. Phase transitions in a lattice population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

  6. Modeling and simulating an electrical grid subsystem for power balance analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Totu, Luminita Cristiana; Leth, John-Josef; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach for power balance analysis in Smart Grids where the physical behavior of different electrical devices is modeled at unit level, and the collective load and generation curves can later be obtained by aggregation. In this way, new behaviors, flexibilities and intelligent...... strategies for power consumption and generation can be easily introduced at the user-level and the system-level impact analyzed on the aggregated profiles. The future aim is to investigate bottom-up balancing strategies, where units with a flexible energy band can react independently to power balance signals...

  7. Model Peranan Work Life Balance, Stres Kerja dan Kepuasan Kerja pada Karyawan

    OpenAIRE

    Nurendra, Annisaa Miranty; Saraswati, Mega Putri

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to measure the empirical model of work life balance, job stress and job satisfaction. Participants in this study were 119 employees who work on some hotels in Yogyakarta. Job satisfaction was measured using job satisfaction scale that was developed based on Luthans, b) work life balance was measured using work life balance scale that was developed based on Hudson and 3) job stress scale based on Beehr andNewman was used to measure job stress. Simple mediation anal...

  8. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  9. Population structure of a widespread species under balancing selection: the case of Arbutus unedo L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xabier eSantiso

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Arbutus unedo L. is an evergreen shrub with a circum-Mediterranean distribution that also reaches the Eurosiberian region in northern Iberia, Atlantic France, and a disjunct population in southern Ireland. Due to the variety of climatic conditions across its distribution range, the populations of A. unedo were expected to display local adaptation. Conversely, common garden experiments revealed that diverse genotypes from a range of provenances produce similar phenotypes through adaptive plasticity, suggesting the action of stabilizing selection across its climatically heterogeneous range. Nonetheless, since an uniform response might also result from extensive gene flow, we have inferred the population structure of A. unedo and assessed whether its extended and largely one-dimensional range influences gene flow with the help of AFLP genotypes for 491 individuals from 19 populations covering the whole range of the species. As we had anticipated, gene flow is restricted in A. unedo, providing further support to the hypothesis that stabilizing selection is the most likely explanation for the homogeneous phenotypes along the range. The Euro-Siberian populations were not particularly isolated from the Mediterranean. Instead, there was a distinct genetic divide between the populations around the Mediterranean Sea and those sampled along Atlantic coasts from northern Africa up to Ireland. This genetic structure suggests the action of historic rather than biogeographic factors as it seems consistent with a scenario of independent glacial refugia in the Atlantic and Mediterranean portions of the range of A. unedo. Genetic exchange was likewise restricted within each set of populations. Nevertheless, IBD was stronger, and FST increased faster with distance, along the Atlantic, suggesting that gene flow might be larger among Mediterranean populations. Genetic diversity was significantly lower in NW Iberia and Ireland than in other populations whereas

  10. Population Structure of a Widespread Species under Balancing Selection: The Case of Arbutus unedo L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiso, Xabier; Lopez, Lua; Retuerto, Rubén; Barreiro, Rodolfo

    2015-01-01

    Arbutus unedo L. is an evergreen shrub with a circum-Mediterranean distribution that also reaches the Eurosiberian region in northern Iberia, Atlantic France, and a disjunct population in southern Ireland. Due to the variety of climatic conditions across its distribution range, the populations of A. unedo were expected to display local adaptation. Conversely, common garden experiments revealed that diverse genotypes from a range of provenances produce similar phenotypes through adaptive plasticity, suggesting the action of stabilizing selection across its climatically heterogeneous range. Nonetheless, since a uniform response might also result from extensive gene flow, we have inferred the population structure of A. unedo and assessed whether its extended and largely one-dimensional range influences gene flow with the help of AFLP genotypes for 491 individuals from 19 populations covering the whole range of the species. As we had anticipated, gene flow is restricted in A. unedo, providing further support to the hypothesis that stabilizing selection is the most likely explanation for the homogeneous phenotypes along the range. The Euro-Siberian populations were not particularly isolated from the Mediterranean. Instead, there was a distinct genetic divide between the populations around the Mediterranean Sea and those sampled along Atlantic coasts from northern Africa up to Ireland. This genetic structure suggests the action of historic rather than biogeographic factors as it seems consistent with a scenario of independent glacial refugia in the Atlantic and Mediterranean portions of the range of A. unedo. Genetic exchange was likewise restricted within each set of populations. Nevertheless, isolation-by-distance (IBD) was stronger, and F ST increased faster with distance, along the Atlantic, suggesting that gene flow might be larger among Mediterranean populations. Genetic diversity was significantly lower in NW Iberia and Ireland than in other populations whereas

  11. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  12. Improving the Xin'anjiang hydrological model based on mass–energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-H. Fang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models are preferable for real-time flood forecasting, among which the Xin'anjiang (XAJ model has been widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China. Although the relatively simple mass balance scheme ensures a good performance of runoff simulation during flood events, the model still has some defects. Previous studies have confirmed the importance of evapotranspiration (ET and soil moisture content (SMC in runoff simulation. In order to add more constraints to the original XAJ model, an energy balance scheme suitable for the XAJ model was developed and coupled with the original mass balance scheme of the XAJ model. The detailed parameterizations of the improved model, XAJ-EB, are presented in the first part of this paper. XAJ-EB employs various meteorological forcing and remote sensing data as input, simulating ET and runoff yield using a more physically based mass–energy balance scheme. In particular, the energy balance is solved by determining the representative equilibrium temperature (RET, which is comparable to land surface temperature (LST. The XAJ-EB was evaluated in the Lushui catchment situated in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin for the period between 2004 and 2007. Validation using ground-measured runoff data proves that the XAJ-EB is capable of reproducing runoff comparable to the original XAJ model. Additionally, RET simulated by XAJ-EB agreed well with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS-retrieved LST, which further confirms that the model is able to simulate the mass–energy balance since LST reflects the interactions among various processes. The validation results prove that the XAJ-EB model has superior performance compared with the XAJ model and also extends its applicability.

  13. Comparison of Four Different Energy Balance Models for Estimating Evapotranspiration in the Midwestern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh K. Singh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of different energy balance models has allowed users to choose a model based on its suitability in a region. We compared four commonly used models—Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC model, Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL model, Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model, and the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop model—using Landsat images to estimate evapotranspiration (ET in the Midwestern United States. Our models validation using three AmeriFlux cropland sites at Mead, Nebraska, showed that all four models captured the spatial and temporal variation of ET reasonably well with an R2 of more than 0.81. Both the METRIC and SSEBop models showed a low root mean square error (<0.93 mm·day−1 and a high Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (>0.80, whereas the SEBAL and SEBS models resulted in relatively higher bias for estimating daily ET. The empirical equation of daily average net radiation used in the SEBAL and SEBS models for upscaling instantaneous ET to daily ET resulted in underestimation of daily ET, particularly when the daily average net radiation was more than 100 W·m−2. Estimated daily ET for both cropland and grassland had some degree of linearity with METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS, but linearity was stronger for evaporative fraction. Thus, these ET models have strengths and limitations for applications in water resource management.

  14. A Residual Approach for Balanced Truncation Model Reduction (BTMR of Compartmental Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William La Cruz

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a residual approach of the square root balanced truncation algorithm for model order reduction of continuous, linear and time-invariante compartmental systems. Specifically, the new approach uses a residual method to approximate the controllability and observability gramians, whose resolution is an essential step of the square root balanced truncation algorithm, that requires a great computational cost. Numerical experiences are included to highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  15. Facility level SSAC for model country - an introduction and material balance accounting principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.J.

    1989-01-01

    A facility level State System of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Materials (SSAC) for a model country and the principles of materials balance accounting relating to that country are described. The seven principal elements of a SSAC are examined and a facility level system based on them discussed. The seven elements are organization and management; nuclear material measurements; measurement quality; records and reports; physical inventory taking; material balance closing; containment and surveillance. 11 refs., 19 figs., 5 tabs

  16. Modelling responses of broiler chickens to dietary balanced protein

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eits, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    Protein is an important nutrient for growing broiler chickens, as it affects broiler performance, feed cost as well as nitrogen excretion. The objective of this dissertation was to develop a growth model for broiler chickens that could be easily used by practical nutritionists. The model should

  17. Evidences for balancing selection from PAH-BglII and PAH-EcoRI polymorphisms in Isfahan population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Fazeli Attar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Two polymorphic markers including BglII and EcoRI, were identified at intron 1 and intron 5 of PAH gene. In order to test whether these polymorphisms are behaving as neutral alleles or are being subjected to selective pressures in Isfahan population, 110 individuals were genotyped by PCR-RFLP. The Arlequin input file was prepared by use of phase-known haplotype data and Neutrality tests (Tajima D test and Fu’s Fs test were done using Arlequin program. 42 individuals were found heterozygous for both polymorphisms whose haplotype phase remained unknown. The BglII-EcoRI haplotype phase was known only at 68 individuals who were used for preparation of input file. Tajima's D value and Fs value at Isfahan population were 1.7 and 1.02, respectively. Positive values of Fs and D>0 indicated that these polymorphisms are under selection pressure at Isfahan population. Although these polymorphisms were in the non-coding region of PAH gene, but these were not neutral alleles and positive values of these tests provided evidence for balancing selection of these polymorphisms at Isfahan population. The results of this study could improve our understanding of evolutionary history and structure of Isfahan population.

  18. Balancing selection and recombination as evolutionary forces caused population genetic variations in golden pheasant MHC class I genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qian-Qian; He, Ke; Sun, Dan-Dan; Ma, Mei-Ying; Ge, Yun-Fa; Fang, Sheng-Guo; Wan, Qiu-Hong

    2016-02-18

    pattern indicate that interlocus recombination accounts for much of the allelic variation in IA2. Analysis of the population differentiation implied that homogenous balancing selection plays an important part in maintaining an even distribution of MHC variations. The natural barrier of the Yangtze River and heterogeneous balancing selection might help shape the NYR-SYR genetic structure in golden pheasants.

  19. The village/commune safety policy and HIV prevention efforts among key affected populations in Cambodia: finding a balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomson Nick

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Village/Commune Safety Policy was launched by the Ministry of Interior of the Kingdom of Cambodia in 2010 and, due to a priority focus on “cleaning the streets”, has created difficulties for HIV prevention programs attempting to implement programs that work with key affected populations including female sex workers and people who inject drugs. The implementation of the policy has forced HIV program implementers, the UN and various government counterparts to explore and develop collaborative ways of delivering HIV prevention services within this difficult environment. The following case study explores some of these efforts and highlights the promising development of a Police Community Partnership Initiative that it is hoped will find a meaningful balance between the Village/Commune Safety Policy and HIV prevention efforts with key affected populations in Cambodia.

  20. Experimental Evaluation of Balance Prediction Models for Sit-to-Stand Movement in the Sagittal Plane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar David Pena Cabra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of balance control ability would become important in the rehabilitation training. In this paper, in order to make clear usefulness and limitation of a traditional simple inverted pendulum model in balance prediction in sit-to-stand movements, the traditional simple model was compared to an inertia (rotational radius variable inverted pendulum model including multiple-joint influence in the balance predictions. The predictions were tested upon experimentation with six healthy subjects. The evaluation showed that the multiple-joint influence model is more accurate in predicting balance under demanding sit-to-stand conditions. On the other hand, the evaluation also showed that the traditionally used simple inverted pendulum model is still reliable in predicting balance during sit-to-stand movement under non-demanding (normal condition. Especially, the simple model was shown to be effective for sit-to-stand movements with low center of mass velocity at the seat-off. Moreover, almost all trajectories under the normal condition seemed to follow the same control strategy, in which the subjects used extra energy than the minimum one necessary for standing up. This suggests that the safety considerations come first than the energy efficiency considerations during a sit to stand, since the most energy efficient trajectory is close to the backward fall boundary.

  1. First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

    2009-04-01

    A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

  2. Modeling Regional Soil Water Balance in Farmland of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying components of soil water balance in farmland of the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin is essential for efficiently scheduling and allocating limited water resources for irrigation in this arid region. A soil water balance model based on empirical assumptions in the vadose zone of farmland was developed and simulation results were compared/validated with results by the numerical model HYDRUS-1D. Results showed a good coherence between the simulated results of the water balance models and the HYDRUS-1D model in soil water storage, evapotranspiration, deep percolation and groundwater recharge, which indicated that the water balance model was suitable for simulating soil water movement in the study area. Considering the spatial distribution of cropping patterns, groundwater depth and agricultural management, ArcGIS was applied for the pre-/post-processing of the water balance model to quantify the spatial distribution of components of soil water balance in the major cropland in middle reaches of Heihe River Basin. Then, distributions of components of soil water balance in the major cropland under different water-saving irrigation practices during the growing season were predicted and discussed. Simulation results demonstrated that evapotranspiration of the main crops would be more prominently influenced by irrigation quota under deep groundwater depth than that under shallow groundwater depth. Groundwater recharge would increase with the increase of irrigation quota and decrease with the increase of groundwater depth. In general, when groundwater depth reached 3 m, groundwater recharge from root zone was negligible for spring wheat. While when it reached 6 m, groundwater recharge was negligible for maize. Water-saving irrigation practices would help to reduce groundwater recharge with a slight decrease of crop water consumption.

  3. A Mass Balance Model of Lyell and Maclure Glaciers in Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, K. A.; Stock, G. M.; Sharping, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    The Lyell and Maclure glaciers, two historically important glaciers of Yosemite National Park, have been rapidly retreating since the late 1800's. I attempted to quantify the water balance of two basins containing these glaciers. Water inputs were calculated by applying snow pillow data and two precipitation vs. elevation slope models. Water outputs consisted of a simplified evapotranspiration model and stream runoff data. Fifty-six linear combinations of precipitation and evaporation were used to develop water balance models. Most of these models predicted melt rates from the two glaciers outside of empirical observations. However, both the Lyell Glacier Basin and the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne Basin water balance spreads had notable Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics: Lyell Glacier with p = 0.34 for 2013 and p = 0.37 for 2014, and Lyell Fork with p = 0.45 for 2009. The basin containing Lyell Glacier had a water balance spread of between -1,105×10^3m^3 and +58×10^3m^3+ (interquartile range) with a mean of -564×10^3m^3 for the 2013 hydrologic year, and between -1,137×10^3m^3 and +21×10^3m^3 (interquartile range) with a mean of-583×10^3m^3 for the 2014 hydrologic year. The Lyell fork of the Tuolumne basin containing both Lyell and Maclure Glaciers had a water balance spread of between-14,350×10^3m^3 and +7,454×10^3m^3 (interquartile range) with a mean of -2,426×10^3m^3 for the 2009 hydrologic year. Variations observed in water balance models for Lyell Glacier in this study are an order of magnitude larger than the expected melt signal, and two orders of magnitude for the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne water balance models.

  4. SEMIC: an efficient surface energy and mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We present SEMIC, a Surface Energy and Mass balance model of Intermediate Complexity for snow- and ice-covered surfaces such as the Greenland ice sheet. SEMIC is fast enough for glacial cycle applications, making it a suitable replacement for simpler methods such as the positive degree day (PDD method often used in ice sheet modelling. Our model explicitly calculates the main processes involved in the surface energy and mass balance, while maintaining a simple interface and requiring minimal data input to drive it. In this novel approach, we parameterise diurnal temperature variations in order to more realistically capture the daily thaw–freeze cycles that characterise the ice sheet mass balance. We show how to derive optimal model parameters for SEMIC specifically to reproduce surface characteristics and day-to-day variations similar to the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, version 2 and its incorporated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT (Soil Ice Snow Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer. A validation test shows that SEMIC simulates future changes in surface temperature and surface mass balance in good agreement with the more sophisticated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT included in MAR. With this paper, we present a physically based surface model to the ice sheet modelling community that is general enough to be used with in situ observations, climate model, or reanalysis data, and that is at the same time computationally fast enough for long-term integrations, such as glacial cycles or future climate change scenarios.

  5. Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2012-01-01

    A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

  6. Long-term species balance in sympatric populations: implications for Atlantic salmon and brown trout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Luis Horreo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The factors determining regional adaptation in salmonids are still unclear, but it is known that changes in their habitat imply changes in their population structure. In this preliminary study we integrate habitat data, molecular analyses (from both nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial loci and life-history traits (measured on archaeological vertebrae and modern scales of two sympatric salmonid species: Atlantic salmon and brown trout. We propose that water temperature and geological characteristics changed the biogeographic patterns of these species through asymmetric migration and different (but complementary population growth rates. As a consequence, differences in a life-history trait (mean number of years at sea and population sizes were detected between regions, suggesting a process of substitution of Atlantic salmon by brown trout.

  7. Balance of plant modeling in TRAC-BD1/MOD1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, W.L.; Giles, M.M.; Mohr, C.M.

    1983-01-01

    The mission of the TRAC-BD1/MOD1 code is to provide a best-estimate analysis capability for Boiling Water Reactor systems and related experimental facilities for the full range of accidents from large and small break Loss-of-Coolant accidents to operational transients including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS), for which point reactor kinetics is adequate (as a first approximation). Recent model developments allow a complete reactor system including the containment and the balance of plant to be modeled. This paper describes the balance of plant models and presents the results of a simulation of a loss-of-feedwater heater transients which was used to assess the performance of the balance of plant models

  8. Modeling real-time balancing power demands in wind power systems using stochastic differential equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Magnus; Perninge, Magnus; Soeder, Lennart

    2010-01-01

    The inclusion of wind power into power systems has a significant impact on the demand for real-time balancing power due to the stochastic nature of wind power production. The overall aim of this paper is to present probabilistic models of the impact of large-scale integration of wind power on the continuous demand in MW for real-time balancing power. This is important not only for system operators, but also for producers and consumers since they in most systems through various market solutions provide balancing power. Since there can occur situations where the wind power variations cancel out other types of deviations in the system, models on an hourly basis are not sufficient. Therefore the developed model is in continuous time and is based on stochastic differential equations (SDE). The model can be used within an analytical framework or in Monte Carlo simulations. (author)

  9. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  10. A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL-II FOR WORK-LIFE BALANCE OF IT PROFESSIONALS IN CHENNAI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashida A. Banu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The study developed and tested a model of work life balance of IT professionals employing structural equation modeling (SEM to analyze the relationship between work place support (WPS and work interference with personal life (WIPL, personal life interference with work (PLIW, satisfaction with work-life balance (SWLB and improved effectiveness at work (IEW. The model fit the data well and hypotheses are generally supported. WPS and SWLB are negatively related to WIPL and PLIW. However, there is a positive relationship between SWLB and IEW.

  11. A new balance-of-plant model for the SASSYS-1 LMR systems analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, L.L.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a balance-of-plant model is developed for the SASSYS code. This model represents the balance of plant as a network of components. It interfaces with the existing SASSYS code through the water side of the steam generator. The network representation provides a discretization of the mass, momentum, and energy equations and the equation of state and allows a simultaneous solution for the changes in pressure, flow, and enthalpy throughout the waterside system. The model has been tested for several types of transients and been found to perform both accurately and efficiently

  12. Development and preliminary analyses of material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumura, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    Material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle has been developed using ORIGEN-2 code as basic engine. This model has feature of: It can treat more than 1000 nuclides including minor actinides and fission products. It has flexibility of modeling and graph output using a engineering work station. I made preliminary calculation of LWR fuel high burnup effect (reloading fuel average burnup of 60 GWd/t) on nuclear fuel cycle. The preliminary calculation shows LWR fuel high burnup has much effect on Japanese Pu balance problem. (author)

  13. Dynamic calibration and validation of an accelerometer force balance for hypersonic lifting models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prakash; Trivedi, Sharad; Menezes, Viren; Hosseini, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    An accelerometer-based force balance was designed and developed for the measurement of drag, lift, and rolling moment on a blunt-nosed, flapped delta wing in a short-duration hypersonic shock tunnel. Calibration and validation of the balance were carried out by a convolution technique using hammer pulse test and surface pressure measurements. In the hammer pulse test, a known impulse was applied to the model in the appropriate direction using an impulse hammer, and the corresponding output of the balance (acceleration) was recorded. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was operated on the output of the balance to generate a system response function, relating the signal output to the corresponding load input. Impulse response functions for three components of the balance, namely, axial, normal, and angular, were obtained for a range of input load. The angular system response function was corresponding to rolling of the model. The impulse response functions thus obtained, through dynamic calibration, were operated on the output (signals) of the balance under hypersonic aerodynamic loading conditions in the tunnel to get the time history of the unknown aerodynamic forces and moments acting on the model. Surface pressure measurements were carried out on the model using high frequency pressure transducers, and forces and moments were deduced thereon. Tests were carried out at model angles of incidence of 0, 5, 10, and 15 degrees. A good agreement was observed among the results of different experimental methods. The balance developed is a comprehensive force/moment measurement device that can be used on complex, lifting, aerodynamic geometries in ground-based hypersonic test facilities.

  14. Status Update: Modeling Energy Balance in NIF Hohlraums

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, O. S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-07-22

    We have developed a standardized methodology to model hohlraum drive in NIF experiments. We compare simulation results to experiments by 1) comparing hohlraum xray fluxes and 2) comparing capsule metrics, such as bang times. Long-pulse, high gas-fill hohlraums require a 20-28% reduction in simulated drive and inclusion of ~15% backscatter to match experiment through (1) and (2). Short-pulse, low fill or near-vacuum hohlraums require a 10% reduction in simulated drive to match experiment through (2); no reduction through (1). Ongoing work focuses on physical model modifications to improve these matches.

  15. Nonlinear dynamics modeling and simulation of two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunping Liu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle system is a kind of naturally unstable underactuated system with high-rank unstable multivariable strongly coupling complicated dynamic nonlinear property. Nonlinear dynamics modeling and simulation, as a basis of two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle dynamics research, has the guiding effect for system design of the project demonstration and design phase. Dynamics model of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle is established by importing a TSi ProPac package to the Mathematica software (version 8.0, which analyzes the stability and calculates the Lyapunov exponents of the system. The relationship between external force and stability of the system is analyzed by the phase trajectory. Proportional–integral–derivative control is added to the system in order to improve the stability of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle. From the research, Lyapunov exponent can be used to research the stability of hyperchaos system. The stability of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle is better by inputting the proportional–integral–derivative control. The Lyapunov exponent and phase trajectory can help us analyze the stability of a system better and lay the foundation for the analysis and control of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle system.

  16. The balanced scorecard: an incremental approach model to health care management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineno, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    The balanced scorecard represents a technique used in strategic management to translate an organization's mission and strategy into a comprehensive set of performance measures that provide the framework for implementation of strategic management. This article develops an incremental approach for decision making by formulating a specific balanced scorecard model with an index of nonfinancial as well as financial measures. The incremental approach to costs, including profit contribution analysis and probabilities, allows decisionmakers to assess, for example, how their desire to meet different health care needs will cause changes in service design. This incremental approach to the balanced scorecard may prove to be useful in evaluating the existence of causality relationships between different objective and subjective measures to be included within the balanced scorecard.

  17. Optimizing Intermodal Train Schedules with a Design Balanced Network Design Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Berliner; Crainic, Teodor Gabriel

    We present a modeling approach for optimizing intermodal trains schedules based on an infrastructure divided into time-dependent train paths. The formulation can be generalized to a capacitated multi commodity network design model with additional design balance constraints. We present a Tabu Search...

  18. Energy balance in the solar transition region. I - Hydrostatic thermal models with ambipolar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontenla, J. M.; Avrett, E. H.; Loeser, R.

    1990-01-01

    The energy balance in the lower transition region is analyzed by constructing theoretical models which satisfy the energy balance constraint. The energy balance is achieved by balancing the radiative losses and the energy flowing downward from the corona. This energy flow is mainly in two forms: conductive heat flow and hydrogen ionization energy flow due to ambipolar diffusion. Hydrostatic equilibrium is assumed, and, in a first calculation, local mechanical heating and Joule heating are ignored. In a second model, some mechanical heating compatible with chromospheric energy-balance calculations is introduced. The models are computed for a partial non-LTE approach in which radiation departs strongly from LTE but particles depart from Maxwellian distributions only to first order. The results, which apply to cases where the magnetic field is either absent, or uniform and vertical, are compared with the observed Lyman lines and continuum from the average quiet sun. The approximate agreement suggests that this type of model can roughly explain the observed intensities in a physically meaningful way, assuming only a few free parameters specified as chromospheric boundary conditions.

  19. Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linping Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

  20. Mass balances for a biological life support system simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Tyler; Rummel, John D.

    1987-01-01

    Design decisions to aid the development of future space based biological life support systems (BLSS) can be made with simulation models. The biochemistry stoichiometry was developed for: (1) protein, carbohydrate, fat, fiber, and lignin production in the edible and inedible parts of plants; (2) food consumption and production of organic solids in urine, feces, and wash water by the humans; and (3) operation of the waste processor. Flux values for all components are derived for a steady state system with wheat as the sole food source. The large scale dynamics of a materially closed (BLSS) computer model is described in a companion paper. An extension of this methodology can explore multifood systems and more complex biochemical dynamics while maintaining whole system closure as a focus.

  1. Population matrix models and palm resource management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available MATRICES DE POPULATIONS ET MISE EN VALEUR DES PALMIERS. Au cours des 20 dernières années, les structures de population de nombreuses espèces de palmiers ont été décrites et discutées. La croissance et la stabilité des populations ont été analysées à l’aide de matrices. Dans cet article, nous reprenons un modèle et en discutons les aspects méthodologiques en vue d’une estimation des paramètres de l’histoire de la vie des palmiers. Les généralisations résultant de précédentes études sont présentées et les conséquences pour la mise en valeur des palmiers, concernant en particulier la confection de toitures, les fruits, la récolte des stipes, sont discutées. MATRICES DE POBLACIONES Y MANEJO DE PALMERAS. En los últimos 20 años, las estructuras de población de numerosas especies de palmeras han sido descritas y discutidas. El crecimiento y la estabilidad de las poblaciones han sido analizadas, utilizando matrices. En el presente artículo, presentamos un modelo y discutimos los aspectos metodológicos específicos para hacer una estimación de los parámetros de la historia de la vida de las palmeras. Son presentadas las generalizaciones diseñadas por estudios previos, y discutidas las implicancias en el manejo de las palmeras, en cuanto a techado, frutas, cosecha de los estípites. Population structures of numerous palm species have been described and discussed in the last 20 years. Population growth and stability have been analyzed with matrix models. In this paper we review matrix models and discuss methodological issues specific to estimating palm life history parameters. Generalizations drawn from previous studies are presented and implications for palm resource management, specifically for thatch, fruit, and stem harvest, are discussed.

  2. Calibrating a surface mass-balance model for Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar; Loe, Even; Taurisano, Andrea; Eiken, Trond; Hagen, Jon Ove; Kohler, Jack

    2007-10-01

    Austfonna (8120 km2) is by far the largest ice mass in the Svalbard archipelago. There is considerable uncertainty about its current state of balance and its possible response to climate change. Over the 2004/05 period, we collected continuous meteorological data series from the ice cap, performed mass-balance measurements using a network of stakes distributed across the ice cap and mapped the distribution of snow accumulation using ground-penetrating radar along several profile lines. These data are used to drive and test a model of the surface mass balance. The spatial accumulation pattern was derived from the snow depth profiles using regression techniques, and ablation was calculated using a temperature-index approach. Model parameters were calibrated using the available field data. Parameter calibration was complicated by the fact that different parameter combinations yield equally acceptable matches to the stake data while the resulting calculated net mass balance differs considerably. Testing model results against multiple criteria is an efficient method to cope with non-uniqueness. In doing so, a range of different data and observations was compared to several different aspects of the model results. We find a systematic underestimation of net balance for parameter combinations that predict observed ice ablation, which suggests that refreezing processes play an important role. To represent these effects in the model, a simple PMAX approach was included in its formulation. Used as a diagnostic tool, the model suggests that the surface mass balance for the period 29 April 2004 to 23 April 2005 was negative (-318 mm w.e.).

  3. BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

  4. Cloud Impacts on Pavement Temperature in Energy Balance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, C. L.

    2013-12-01

    Forecast systems provide decision support for end-users ranging from the solar energy industry to municipalities concerned with road safety. Pavement temperature is an important variable when considering vehicle response to various weather conditions. A complex, yet direct relationship exists between tire and pavement temperatures. Literature has shown that as tire temperature increases, friction decreases which affects vehicle performance. Many forecast systems suffer from inaccurate radiation forecasts resulting in part from the inability to model different types of clouds and their influence on radiation. This research focused on forecast improvement by determining how cloud type impacts the amount of shortwave radiation reaching the surface and subsequent pavement temperatures. The study region was the Great Plains where surface solar radiation data were obtained from the High Plains Regional Climate Center's Automated Weather Data Network stations. Road pavement temperature data were obtained from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System. Cloud properties and radiative transfer quantities were obtained from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System mission via Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite products. An additional cloud data set was incorporated from the Naval Research Laboratory Cloud Classification algorithm. Statistical analyses using a modified nearest neighbor approach were first performed relating shortwave radiation variability with road pavement temperature fluctuations. Then statistical associations were determined between the shortwave radiation and cloud property data sets. Preliminary results suggest that substantial pavement forecasting improvement is possible with the inclusion of cloud-specific information. Future model sensitivity testing seeks to quantify the magnitude of forecast improvement.

  5. Particle-balance models for pulsed sputtering magnetrons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Chunqing; Lundin, D.; Gudmundsson, J. T.; Raadu, M. A.; Bradley, J. W.; Brenning, N.

    2017-09-01

    The time-dependent plasma discharge ionization region model (IRM) has been under continuous development during the past decade and used in several studies of the ionization region of high-power impulse magnetron sputtering (HiPIMS) discharges. In the present work, a complete description of the most recent version of the IRM is given, which includes improvements, such as allowing for returning of the working gas atoms from the target, a separate treatment of hot secondary electrons, addition of doubly charged metal ions, etc. To show the general applicability of the IRM, two different HiPIMS discharges are investigated. The first set concerns 400 μs long discharge pulses applied to an Al target in an Ar atmosphere at 1.8 Pa. The second set focuses on 100 μs long discharge pulses applied to a Ti target in an Ar atmosphere at 0.54 Pa, and explores the effects of varying the magnetic field strength. The model results show that Al2+ -ions contribute negligibly to the production of secondary electrons, while Ti2+ -ions effectively contribute to the production of secondary electrons. Similarly, the model results show that for an argon discharge with Al target the contribution of Al+-ions to the discharge current at the target surface is over 90% at 800 V. However, at 400 V the Al+-ions and Ar+-ions contribute roughly equally to the discharge current in the initial peak, while in the plateau region Ar+-ions contribute to roughly \\frac{2}{3} of the current. For high currents the discharge with Al target develops almost pure self-sputter recycling, while the discharge with Ti target exhibits close to a 50/50 combination of self-sputter recycling and working gas-recycling. For a Ti target, a self-sputter yield significantly below unity makes working gas-recycling necessary at high currents. For the discharge with Ti target, a decrease in the B-field strength, resulted in a corresponding stepwise increase in the discharge resistivity.

  6. Incipient balancing selection through adaptive loss of aquaporins in natural Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica L Will

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A major goal in evolutionary biology is to understand how adaptive evolution has influenced natural variation, but identifying loci subject to positive selection has been a challenge. Here we present the adaptive loss of a pair of paralogous genes in specific Saccharomyces cerevisiae subpopulations. We mapped natural variation in freeze-thaw tolerance to two water transporters, AQY1 and AQY2, previously implicated in freeze-thaw survival. However, whereas freeze-thaw-tolerant strains harbor functional aquaporin genes, the set of sensitive strains lost aquaporin function at least 6 independent times. Several genomic signatures at AQY1 and/or AQY2 reveal low variation surrounding these loci within strains of the same haplotype, but high variation between strain groups. This is consistent with recent adaptive loss of aquaporins in subgroups of strains, leading to incipient balancing selection. We show that, although aquaporins are critical for surviving freeze-thaw stress, loss of both genes provides a major fitness advantage on high-sugar substrates common to many strains' natural niche. Strikingly, strains with non-functional alleles have also lost the ancestral requirement for aquaporins during spore formation. Thus, the antagonistic effect of aquaporin function-providing an advantage in freeze-thaw tolerance but a fitness defect for growth in high-sugar environments-contributes to the maintenance of both functional and nonfunctional alleles in S. cerevisiae. This work also shows that gene loss through multiple missense and nonsense mutations, hallmarks of pseudogenization presumed to emerge after loss of constraint, can arise through positive selection.

  7. Incipient balancing selection through adaptive loss of aquaporins in natural Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Will, Jessica L; Kim, Hyun Seok; Clarke, Jessica; Painter, John C; Fay, Justin C; Gasch, Audrey P

    2010-04-01

    A major goal in evolutionary biology is to understand how adaptive evolution has influenced natural variation, but identifying loci subject to positive selection has been a challenge. Here we present the adaptive loss of a pair of paralogous genes in specific Saccharomyces cerevisiae subpopulations. We mapped natural variation in freeze-thaw tolerance to two water transporters, AQY1 and AQY2, previously implicated in freeze-thaw survival. However, whereas freeze-thaw-tolerant strains harbor functional aquaporin genes, the set of sensitive strains lost aquaporin function at least 6 independent times. Several genomic signatures at AQY1 and/or AQY2 reveal low variation surrounding these loci within strains of the same haplotype, but high variation between strain groups. This is consistent with recent adaptive loss of aquaporins in subgroups of strains, leading to incipient balancing selection. We show that, although aquaporins are critical for surviving freeze-thaw stress, loss of both genes provides a major fitness advantage on high-sugar substrates common to many strains' natural niche. Strikingly, strains with non-functional alleles have also lost the ancestral requirement for aquaporins during spore formation. Thus, the antagonistic effect of aquaporin function-providing an advantage in freeze-thaw tolerance but a fitness defect for growth in high-sugar environments-contributes to the maintenance of both functional and nonfunctional alleles in S. cerevisiae. This work also shows that gene loss through multiple missense and nonsense mutations, hallmarks of pseudogenization presumed to emerge after loss of constraint, can arise through positive selection.

  8. Modelled and observed mass balance of Rikha Samba Glacier, Nepal, Central Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, T. R.; Kayastha, R. B.; Fujita, K.; Sinisalo, A. K.; Stumm, D.; Joshi, S.; Litt, M.

    2016-12-01

    Glacier mass balance variability has an implication for the regional water resources and it helps to understand the response of glacier to climate change in the Himalayan region. Several mass balance studies have been started in the Himalayan region since 1970s, but they are characterized by frequent temporal gaps and a poor spatial representatively. This study aims at bridging the temporal gaps in a long term mass balance series of the Rikha Samba glacier (5383 - 6475 m a.s.l.), a benchmark glacier located in the Hidden Valley, Mustang, Nepal. The ERA Interim reanalysis data for the period 2011-2015 is calibrated with the observed meteorological variables from an AWS installed near the glacier terminus. We apply an energy mass balance model, validated with the available in-situ measurements for the years 1998 and 2011-2015. The results show that the glacier is shrinking at a moderate negative mass balance rate for the period 1995 to 2015 and the high altitude location of Rikha Samba also prevents a bigger mass loss compared to other small Himalayan glaciers. Precipitation from July to January and the mean air temperature from June to October are the most influential climatic parameters of the annual mass balance variability of Rikha Samba glacier.

  9. A model-based approach for identifying signatures of ancient balancing selection in genetic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGiorgio, Michael; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2014-08-01

    While much effort has focused on detecting positive and negative directional selection in the human genome, relatively little work has been devoted to balancing selection. This lack of attention is likely due to the paucity of sophisticated methods for identifying sites under balancing selection. Here we develop two composite likelihood ratio tests for detecting balancing selection. Using simulations, we show that these methods outperform competing methods under a variety of assumptions and demographic models. We apply the new methods to whole-genome human data, and find a number of previously-identified loci with strong evidence of balancing selection, including several HLA genes. Additionally, we find evidence for many novel candidates, the strongest of which is FANK1, an imprinted gene that suppresses apoptosis, is expressed during meiosis in males, and displays marginal signs of segregation distortion. We hypothesize that balancing selection acts on this locus to stabilize the segregation distortion and negative fitness effects of the distorter allele. Thus, our methods are able to reproduce many previously-hypothesized signals of balancing selection, as well as discover novel interesting candidates.

  10. A model-based approach for identifying signatures of ancient balancing selection in genetic data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael DeGiorgio

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available While much effort has focused on detecting positive and negative directional selection in the human genome, relatively little work has been devoted to balancing selection. This lack of attention is likely due to the paucity of sophisticated methods for identifying sites under balancing selection. Here we develop two composite likelihood ratio tests for detecting balancing selection. Using simulations, we show that these methods outperform competing methods under a variety of assumptions and demographic models. We apply the new methods to whole-genome human data, and find a number of previously-identified loci with strong evidence of balancing selection, including several HLA genes. Additionally, we find evidence for many novel candidates, the strongest of which is FANK1, an imprinted gene that suppresses apoptosis, is expressed during meiosis in males, and displays marginal signs of segregation distortion. We hypothesize that balancing selection acts on this locus to stabilize the segregation distortion and negative fitness effects of the distorter allele. Thus, our methods are able to reproduce many previously-hypothesized signals of balancing selection, as well as discover novel interesting candidates.

  11. SASSYS-1 balance-of-plant component models for an integrated plant response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, J.-Y.

    1989-01-01

    Models of power plant heat transfer components and rotating machinery have been added to the balance-of-plant model in the SASSYS-1 liquid metal reactor systems analysis code. This work is part of a continuing effort in plant network simulation based on the general mathematical models developed. The models described in this paper extend the scope of the balance-of-plant model to handle non-adiabatic conditions along flow paths. While the mass and momentum equations remain the same, the energy equation now contains a heat source term due to energy transfer across the flow boundary or to work done through a shaft. The heat source term is treated fully explicitly. In addition, the equation of state is rewritten in terms of the quality and separate parameters for each phase. The models are simple enough to run quickly, yet include sufficient detail of dominant plant component characteristics to provide accurate results. 5 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs

  12. Balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model for knowledge growth

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2016-11-18

    In this paper we study balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model proposed by Lucas and Moll [15] to model knowledge growth in an economy. Agents can either increase their knowledge level by exchanging ideas in learning events or by producing goods with the knowledge they already have. The existence of balanced growth path solutions implies exponential growth of the overall production in time. We prove existence of balanced growth path solutions if the initial distribution of individuals with respect to their knowledge level satisfies a Pareto-tail condition. Furthermore we give first insights into the existence of such solutions if in addition to production and knowledge exchange the knowledge level evolves by geometric Brownian motion.

  13. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  14. Criticisms and defences of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: some old, some new

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S.L. McCombie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses various critiques that have been levelled over the years against Thirlwall’s Law and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model. It starts by assessing the criticisms that the law is largely capturing an identity; that the law of one price renders the model incoherent; and that statistical testing using cross-country data rejects the hypothesis that the actual and the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rates are the same. It goes on to consider the argument that calculations of the “constant-market-shares” income elasticities of demand for exports demonstrate that the UK (and by implication other advanced countries could not have been balance-of-payments constrained in the early postwar period. Next Krugman’s interpretation of the law (or what he terms the “45-degree rule”, which is at variance with the usual demand-oriented explanation, is examined. The paper next assesses attempts to reconcile the demand and supply side of the model and examines whether or not the balance-of-payments constrained growth model is subject to the fallacy of composition. It concludes that none of these criticisms invalidate the model, which remains a powerful explanation of why growth rates differ.

  15. Biopsychosocial Characteristics, Using a New Functional Measure of Balance, of an Elderly Population with CLBP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Hulla

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the biopsychosocial characteristics of chronic low back pain (CLBP in an understudied but increasingly larger part of the population: the elderly (i.e., 65 years and older. A new innovative physical functioning measure (postural control, which is a proxy for the common problem of slips and falls in the elderly was part of this biopsychosocial evaluation. Also, the National Institutes of Health (NIH-developed Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS was also part of this comprehensive evaluation. Two demographically-matched groups of elderly participants were evaluated: one with CLBP (n = 24; and the other without (NCLBP, n = 24. Results revealed significant differences in most of these measures between the two groups, further confirming the importance of using a biopsychosocial approach for future studies of pain and postural control in the elderly.

  16. A Computational Modeling Approach for Investigating Soft Tissue Balancing in Bicruciate Retaining Knee Arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Amiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty, although has shown improved functions and patient satisfaction compared to other designs of total knee replacement, remains a technically demanding option for treating severe cases of arthritic knees. One of the main challenges in bicruciate retaining arthroplasty is proper balancing of the soft tissue during the surgery. In this study biomechanics of soft tissue balancing was investigated using a validated computational model of the knee joint with high fidelity definitions of the soft tissue structures along with a Taguchi method for design of experiments. The model was used to simulate intraoperative balancing of soft tissue structures following the combinations suggested by an orthogonal array design. The results were used to quantify the corresponding effects on the laxity of the joint under anterior-posterior, internal-external, and varus-valgus loads. These effects were ranked for each ligament bundle to identify the components of laxity which were most sensitive to the corresponding surgical modifications. The resulting map of sensitivity for all the ligament bundles determined the components of laxity most suitable for examination during intraoperative balancing of the soft tissue. Ultimately, a sequence for intraoperative soft tissue balancing was suggested for a bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty.

  17. A Computational Modeling Approach for Investigating Soft Tissue Balancing in Bicruciate Retaining Knee Arthroplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Shahram; Wilson, David R.

    2012-01-01

    Bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty, although has shown improved functions and patient satisfaction compared to other designs of total knee replacement, remains a technically demanding option for treating severe cases of arthritic knees. One of the main challenges in bicruciate retaining arthroplasty is proper balancing of the soft tissue during the surgery. In this study biomechanics of soft tissue balancing was investigated using a validated computational model of the knee joint with high fidelity definitions of the soft tissue structures along with a Taguchi method for design of experiments. The model was used to simulate intraoperative balancing of soft tissue structures following the combinations suggested by an orthogonal array design. The results were used to quantify the corresponding effects on the laxity of the joint under anterior-posterior, internal-external, and varus-valgus loads. These effects were ranked for each ligament bundle to identify the components of laxity which were most sensitive to the corresponding surgical modifications. The resulting map of sensitivity for all the ligament bundles determined the components of laxity most suitable for examination during intraoperative balancing of the soft tissue. Ultimately, a sequence for intraoperative soft tissue balancing was suggested for a bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty. PMID:23082090

  18. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  19. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  20. An integrative water balance model framework for a changing glaciated catchment in the Andes of Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian; García Hernández, Javier; Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Seidel, Jochen; Muñoz Asmat, Randy

    2017-04-01

    In the Santa River catchment [SRC] (Cordillera Blanca, Andes of Peru), human livelihoods strongly depend on year-round streamflow from glaciers and reservoirs, particularly in the dry season and in adjacent arid lowlands. Perennial glacial streamflow represents a buffer to water shortages, annual discharge variability and river contamination levels. However, climate change impacts, consecutive glacier shrinkage as well as new irrigated agriculture and hydropower schemes, population growth and thus water allocation might increase water scarcity in several areas of the SRC. This situation exerts further pressure and conflict potential over water resources and stresses the need to analyze both water supply and demand trends in a multidisciplinary and interlinked manner. In this context, an integrative glacio-hydrological framework was developed based on the Glacier and Snow Melt (GSM) and SOil CONTribution (SOCONT) models using the semi-distributed free software RS MINERVE. This water balance model incorporates hydroclimatic, socioeconomic and hydraulic objects and data at daily scale (with several gaps) for the last 50 years (1965-2015). A particular challenge in this context represents the poor data availability both in quantity and quality. Therefore, the hydroclimatic dataset to be used had to be carefully selected and data gaps were filled applying a statistical copula-based approach. The socioeconomic dataset of water demand was elaborated using several assumptions based on further census information and experiences from other projects in the region. Reservoirs and hydropower models were linked with additional hydraulic data. In order to increase model performance within a complex topography of the 11660 km2 SRC, the area was divided into 22 glaciated (GSM) and 42 non-glaciated (SOCONT) subcatchment models. Additionally, 382 elevation bands at 300 m interval were created and grouped into 22 different calibration zones for the whole SRC. The model was calibrated

  1. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  2. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  3. A new balance-of-plant model for the SASSYS-1 LMR systems analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, L.L.

    1989-01-01

    A balance-of-plant model has been added to the SASSYS-1 liquid metal reactor systems analysis code. Until this addition, the only waterside component which SASSYS-1 could explicitly model was the water side of a steam generator, with the remainder of the water side represented by boundary conditions on the steam generator. The balance-of-plant model is based on the model used for the sodium side of the plant. It will handle subcooled liquid water, superheated steam, and saturated two-phase fluid. With the exception of heated flow paths in heaters, the model assumes adiabatic conditions along flow paths; this assumption simplifies the solution procedure while introducing very little error for a wide range of reactor plant problems. Only adiabatic flow is discussed in this report. 3 refs., 4 figs

  4. A Study of the Role of Decisional Balance in Exercise Status Among Yazd’s Staff Based on Transtheoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazloomy Mahmoudabad Saeid

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to statistical evidence put forward by WHO in 2003, lack of physical activity is the reason for 1.9 million deaths in the world. More than 60% of adults in the world and more than 80% of Iranian adults do not perform sufficient levels of physical activity. Despite the great advantages of exercise a huge portion of the population of many countries do not exercise adequately thus deprived of its benefits. Transtheoretical model is identified as a comprehensive model for behavior change and decision balance is regarded as a fundamental structure of the model which centers around positive and negative behavior change consequences. In this study decision was made to check the situation of sport change process in Yazd’s staff according to Transtheoretical Model and its relation with decision balance.Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 220 subjects were recruited. The subjects were selected through 2-stage cluster sampling-test; the instruments for data collection were a questionnaire that consisted of two parts (demographic variables and construct of TTM. Data analyzed by ANOVA and T-test through SPSS and P<0.05 was significant.Results: Results of the study on 152 males (69.1% and 68 females (30.9% with the average age of 34±8.68 indicated a significant relationship between pros and cons with stages of change (both P<0.0001 and between pros with age (P=0.004. Of 220 study group 44(20% were in pre-contemplation stage, 88 (40% in contemplation, 30(13.6% in preparation, 16(7.3% in action and 42(19.1% in maintenance stage.Conclusion: With regard to the fact that transtheoretical model has revealed a significant relationship between decisional balance and stage of change in exercise. It is proposed that accomplish educational class for employees, in order to increase pros and reduce cons of exercise.

  5. A Connectionist Model of a Continuous Developmental Transition in the Balance Scale Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schapiro, Anna C.; McClelland, James L.

    2009-01-01

    A connectionist model of the balance scale task is presented which exhibits developmental transitions between "Rule I" and "Rule II" behavior [Siegler, R. S. (1976). Three aspects of cognitive development. "Cognitive Psychology," 8, 481-520.] as well as the "catastrophe flags" seen in data from Jansen and van der Maas [Jansen, B. R. J., & van der…

  6. Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high - resolution climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, Janneke; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Box, Jason E.; Bales, Roger C.

    2009-01-01

    High‐resolution (∼11 km) regional climate modeling shows total annual precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet for 1958–2007 to be up to 24% and surface mass balance up to 63% higher than previously thought. The largest differences occur in coastal southeast Greenland, where the much higher

  7. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large-scale ice sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Goeller

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available There is currently no doubt about the existence of a widespread hydrological network under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux–basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  8. Mean field theory for a balanced hypercolumn model of orientation selectivity in primary visual cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lerchner, Alexander; Sterner, G.; Hertz, J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a complete mean field theory for a balanced state of a simple model of an orientation hypercolumn, with a numerical procedure for solving the mean-field equations quantitatively. With our treatment, one can determine self-consistently both the firing rates and the firing correlations...

  9. Mass Balance Model, A study of contamination effects in AMS 14C sample analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokopiou, Markella

    2010-01-01

    In this training thesis a background correction analysis, also known as mass balance model, was implemented to study the contamination effects in AMS 14C sample processing. A variety of backgrounds and standards with sizes ranging from 50 μg C to 1500 μg

  10. A parameter for the selection of an optimum balance calibration model by Monte Carlo simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bidgood, Peter M

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current trend in balance calibration-matrix generation is to use non-linear regression and statistical methods. Methods typically include Modified-Design-of-Experiment (MDOE), Response-Surface-Models (RSMs) and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA...

  11. Dirac-bracket aproach to nearly-geostrophic Hamiltonian balanced models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanneste, J.; Bokhove, Onno

    2002-01-01

    Dirac’s theory of constrained Hamiltonian systems is applied to derive the Poisson structure of a class of balanced models describing the slow dynamics of geophysical flows. Working with the Poisson structure, instead of the canonical Hamiltonian structure previously considered in this context,

  12. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  13. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

    2012-12-01

    There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  14. Model reduction of detailed-balanced reaction networks by clustering linkage classes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shodhan; Jayawardhana, Bayu; van der Schaft, Abraham; Findeisen, Rolf; Bullinger, Eric; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Bernaerts, Kristel

    2016-01-01

    We propose a model reduction method that involves sequential application of clustering of linkage classes and Kron reduction. This approach is specifically useful for chemical reaction networks with each linkage class having less number of reactions. In case of detailed balanced chemical reaction

  15. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  16. The Dengue Vaccine Dilemma: Balancing the Individual and Population Risks and Benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; Rodr?guez-Barraquer, Isabel; Coudeville, Laurent; Recker, Mario; Koelle, Katia; Milne, George; Hladish, Thomas J.; Perkins, T. Alex; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Laydon, Daniel J.; Espa?a, Guido; Kelso, Joel; Longini, Ira

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-na?ve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling ...

  17. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  18. Visualizing Experimental Designs for Balanced ANOVA Models using Lisp-Stat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip W. Iversen

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The structure, or Hasse, diagram described by Taylor and Hilton (1981, American Statistician provides a visual display of the relationships between factors for balanced complete experimental designs. Using the Hasse diagram, rules exist for determining the appropriate linear model, ANOVA table, expected means squares, and F-tests in the case of balanced designs. This procedure has been implemented in Lisp-Stat using a software representation of the experimental design. The user can interact with the Hasse diagram to add, change, or delete factors and see the effect on the proposed analysis. The system has potential uses in teaching and consulting.

  19. Gene Therapy Restores Balance and Auditory Functions in a Mouse Model of Usher Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isgrig, Kevin; Shteamer, Jack W; Belyantseva, Inna A; Drummond, Meghan C; Fitzgerald, Tracy S; Vijayakumar, Sarath; Jones, Sherri M; Griffith, Andrew J; Friedman, Thomas B; Cunningham, Lisa L; Chien, Wade W

    2017-03-01

    Dizziness and hearing loss are among the most common disabilities. Many forms of hereditary balance and hearing disorders are caused by abnormal development of stereocilia, mechanosensory organelles on the apical surface of hair cells in the inner ear. The deaf whirler mouse, a model of human Usher syndrome (manifested by hearing loss, dizziness, and blindness), has a recessive mutation in the whirlin gene, which renders hair cell stereocilia short and dysfunctional. In this study, wild-type whirlin cDNA was delivered to the inner ears of neonatal whirler mice using adeno-associated virus serotype 2/8 (AAV8-whirlin) by injection into the posterior semicircular canal. Unilateral whirlin gene therapy injection was able to restore balance function as well as improve hearing in whirler mice for at least 4 months. Our data indicate that gene therapy is likely to become a treatment option for hereditary disorders of balance and hearing. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

  1. Evaluation of alternative model-data fusion approaches in water balance estimation across Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.

    2009-04-01

    Australia's national agencies are developing a continental modelling system to provide a range of water information services. It will include rolling water balance estimation to underpin national water accounts, water resources assessments that interpret current water resources availability and trends in a historical context, and water resources predictions coupled to climate and weather forecasting. The nation-wide coverage, currency, accuracy, and consistency required means that remote sensing will need to play an important role along with in-situ observations. Different approaches to blending models and observations can be considered. Integration of on-ground and remote sensing data into land surface models in atmospheric applications often involves state updating through model-data assimilation techniques. By comparison, retrospective water balance estimation and hydrological scenario modelling to date has mostly relied on static parameter fitting against observations and has made little use of earth observation. The model-data fusion approach most appropriate for a continental water balance estimation system will need to consider the trade-off between computational overhead and the accuracy gains achieved when using more sophisticated synthesis techniques and additional observations. This trade-off was investigated using a landscape hydrological model and satellite-based estimates of soil moisture and vegetation properties for aseveral gauged test catchments in southeast Australia.

  2. Modeling and experimental validation of water mass balance in a PEM fuel cell stack

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liso, Vincenzo; Araya, Samuel Simon; Olesen, Anders Christian

    2016-01-01

    Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells require good hydration in order to deliver high performance and ensure long life operation. Water is essential for proton conductivity in the membrane which increases by nearly six orders of magnitude from dry to fully hydrated. Adequate water...... management in PEM fuel cell is crucial in order to avoid an imbalance between water production and water removal from the fuel cell. In the present study, a novel mathematical zero-dimensional model has been formulated for the water mass balance and hydration of a polymer electrolyte membrane. This model...... is validated against experimental data. In the results it is shown that the fuel cell water balance calculated by this model shows better fit with experimental data-points compared with model where only steady state operation were considered. We conclude that this discrepancy is due a different rate of water...

  3. Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki

    2009-02-01

    In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

  4. Computerized heat balance models to predict performance of operating nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breeding, C.L.; Carter, J.C.; Schaefer, R.C.

    1983-01-01

    The use of computerized heat balance models has greatly enhanced the decision making ability of TVA's Division of Nuclear Power. These models are utilized to predict the effects of various operating modes and to analyze changes in plant performance resulting from turbine cycle equipment modifications with greater speed and accuracy than was possible before. Computer models have been successfully used to optimize plant output by predicting the effects of abnormal condenser circulating water conditions. They were utilized to predict the degradation in performance resulting from installation of a baffle plate assembly to replace damaged low-pressure blading, thereby providing timely information allowing an optimal economic judgement as to when to replace the blading. Future use will be for routine performance test analysis. This paper presents the benefits of utility use of computerized heat balance models

  5. Models and Tabu Search Metaheuristics for Service Network Design with Asset-Balance Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Berliner; Crainic, T.G.; Madsen, Oli B.G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on a generic model for service network design, which includes asset positioning and utilization through constraints on asset availability at terminals. We denote these relations as "design-balance constraints" and focus on the design-balanced capacitated multicommodity network...... design model, a generalization of the capacitated multicommodity network design model generally used in service network design applications. Both arc-and cycle-based formulations for the new model are presented. The paper also proposes a tabu search metaheuristic framework for the arc-based formulation....... Results on a wide range of network design problem instances from the literature indicate the proposed method behaves very well in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality....

  6. Analysis of the type II robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çil, Zeynel Abidin; Mete, Süleyman; Ağpak, Kürşad

    2017-06-01

    In recent years, there has been an increasing trend towards using robots in production systems. Robots are used in different areas such as packaging, transportation, loading/unloading and especially assembly lines. One important step in taking advantage of robots on the assembly line is considering them while balancing the line. On the other hand, market conditions have increased the importance of mixed-model assembly lines. Therefore, in this article, the robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem is studied. The aim of this study is to develop a new efficient heuristic algorithm based on beam search in order to minimize the sum of cycle times over all models. In addition, mathematical models of the problem are presented for comparison. The proposed heuristic is tested on benchmark problems and compared with the optimal solutions. The results show that the algorithm is very competitive and is a promising tool for further research.

  7. Monthly water balance model for climate change analysis in agriculture with R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalicz, Péter; Herceg, András; Gribovszki, Zoltán

    2015-04-01

    For Hungary regional climate models projections suggest a warmer climate and some changes in annual precipitation distribution. These changes force the whole agrarian sector to consider the traditional cropping technologies. This situation is more serious in forestry because some forest populations are on their xeric distributional limits (Gálos et. al, 2014). Additionally, a decision has an impact sometimes longer than one hundred years. To support the stakeholder there is a project which develops a GIS (Geographic Information System) based decision support system. Hydrology plays significant role in this system because water is often one of the most important limiting factor in Hungary. A modified Thorntwaite-type monthly water balance model was choosen to produce hydrological estimations for the GIS modules. This model is calibrated with the available data between 2000 and 2008. Beside other meteorological data we used mainly an actual evapotranspiration map in the calibration phase, which was derived with the Complementary-relationship-based evapotranspiration mapping (CREMAP; Szilágyi and Kovács, 2011) technique. The calibration process is pixel based and it has several stochastic steps. We try to find a flexible solution for the model implementation which easy to automatize and can be integrate in GIS systems. The open source R programming language was selected which well satisfied these demands. The result of this development is summarized as an R package. This publication has been supported by AGRARKLIMA.2 VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034 project. References Gálos B., Antal V., Czimber K., Mátyás Cs. (2014) Forest ecosystems, sewage works and droughts - possibilities for climate change adaptation. In: Santamarta J.C., Hernandez-Gutiérrez L.E., Arraiza M.P. (eds) 2014. Natural Hazards and Climate Change/Riesgos Naturales y Cambio Climático. Madrid: Colegio de Ingenieros de Montes. ISBN 978-84-617-1060-7, D.L. TF 565-2014, 91-104 pp Szilágyi J., Kovács Á. (2011

  8. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  9. Mass Balance Modelling of Saskatchewan Glacier, Canada Using Empirically Downscaled Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larouche, O.; Kinnard, C.; Demuth, M. N.

    2017-12-01

    Observations show that glaciers around the world are retreating. As sites with long-term mass balance observations are scarce, models are needed to reconstruct glacier mass balance and assess its sensitivity to climate. In regions with discontinuous and/or sparse meteorological data, high-resolution climate reanalysis data provide a convenient alternative to in situ weather observations, but can also suffer from strong bias due to the spatial and temporal scale mismatch. In this study we used data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project with a 30 x 30 km spatial resolution and 3-hour temporal resolution to produce the meteorological forcings needed to drive a physically-based, distributed glacier mass balance model (DEBAM, Hock and Holmgren 2005) for the historical period 1979-2016. A two-year record from an automatic weather station (AWS) operated on Saskatchewan Glacier (2014-2016) was used to downscale air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and incoming solar radiation from the nearest NARR gridpoint to the glacier AWS site. An homogenized historical precipitation record was produced using data from two nearby, low-elevation weather stations and used to downscale the NARR precipitation data. Three bias correction methods were applied (scaling, delta and empirical quantile mapping - EQM) and evaluated using split sample cross-validation. The EQM method gave better results for precipitation and for air temperature. Only a slight improvement in the relative humidity was obtained using the scaling method, while none of the methods improved the wind speed. The later correlates poorly with AWS observations, probably because the local glacier wind is decoupled from the larger scale NARR wind field. The downscaled data was used to drive the DEBAM model in order to reconstruct the mass balance of Saskatchewan Glacier over the past 30 years. The model was validated using recent snow thickness measurements and previously published geodetic mass

  10. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-05

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling.

  11. Burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance among US physicians relative to the general US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanafelt, Tait D; Boone, Sonja; Tan, Litjen; Dyrbye, Lotte N; Sotile, Wayne; Satele, Daniel; West, Colin P; Sloan, Jeff; Oreskovich, Michael R

    2012-10-08

    Despite extensive data about physician burnout, to our knowledge, no national study has evaluated rates of burnout among US physicians, explored differences by specialty, or compared physicians with US workers in other fields. We conducted a national study of burnout in a large sample of US physicians from all specialty disciplines using the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile and surveyed a probability-based sample of the general US population for comparison. Burnout was measured using validated instruments. Satisfaction with work-life balance was explored. Of 27 276 physicians who received an invitation to participate, 7288 (26.7%) completed surveys. When assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, 45.8% of physicians reported at least 1 symptom of burnout. Substantial differences in burnout were observed by specialty, with the highest rates among physicians at the front line of care access (family medicine, general internal medicine, and emergency medicine). Compared with a probability-based sample of 3442 working US adults, physicians were more likely to have symptoms of burnout (37.9% vs 27.8%) and to be dissatisfied with work-life balance (40.2% vs 23.2%) (P < .001 for both). Highest level of education completed also related to burnout in a pooled multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, relationship status, and hours worked per week. Compared with high school graduates, individuals with an MD or DO degree were at increased risk for burnout (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; P < .001), whereas individuals with a bachelor's degree (OR, 0.80; P = .048), master's degree (OR, 0.71; P = .01), or professional or doctoral degree other than an MD or DO degree (OR, 0.64; P = .04) were at lower risk for burnout. Burnout is more common among physicians than among other US workers. Physicians in specialties at the front line of care access seem to be at greatest risk.

  12. Modelling surface energy fluxes over a Dehesa ecosystem using a two-source energy balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreu, Ana; Kustas, William. P.; Anderson, Martha C.; Carrara, Arnaud; Patrocinio Gonzalez-Dugo, Maria

    2013-04-01

    The Dehesa is the most widespread agroforestry land-use system in Europe, covering more than 3 million hectares in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece (Grove and Rackham, 2001; Papanastasis, 2004). It is an agro-silvo-pastural ecosystem consisting of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus ilex L.), combined with crops, pasture and Mediterranean shrubs, and it is recognized as an example of sustainable land use and for his importance in the rural economy (Diaz et al., 1997; Plieninger and Wilbrand, 2001). The ecosystem is influenced by a Mediterranean climate, with recurrent and severe droughts. Over the last decades the Dehesa has faced multiple environmental threats, derived from intensive agricultural use and socio-economic changes, which have caused environmental degradation of the area, namely reduction in tree density and stocking rates, changes in soil properties and hydrological processes and an increase of soil erosion (Coelho et al. 2004; Schnabel and Ferreira, 2004; Montoya 1998; Pulido and Díaz, 2005). Understanding the hydrological, atmospheric and physiological processes that affect the functioning of the ecosystem will improve the management and conservation of the Dehesa. One of the key metrics in assessing ecosystem health, particularly in this water-limited environment, is the capability of monitoring evaporation (ET). To make large area assessments requires the use of remote sensing. Thermal-based energy balance techniques that distinguish soil/substrate and vegetation contributions to the radiative temperature and radiation/turbulent fluxes have proven to be reliable in such semi-arid sparse canopy-cover landscapes. In particular, the two-source energy balance (TSEB) model of Norman et al. (1995) and Kustas and Norman (1999) has shown to be robust for a wide range of partially-vegetated landscapes. The TSEB formulation is evaluated at a flux tower site located in center Spain (Majadas del Tietar, Caceres). Its application in this environment is

  13. A population balance approach considering heat and mass transfer-Experiments and CFD simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krepper, Eckhard; Beyer, Matthias; Lucas, Dirk; Schmidtke, Martin

    2011-01-01

    in the simulations. For a better quantitative reproduction, reliable models for the heat transfer at high Reynolds number as well as for bubble breakup and coalescence are needed.

  14. Hamiltonian formulation of systems with balanced loss-gain and exactly solvable models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Pijush K.; Sinha, Debdeep

    2018-01-01

    A Hamiltonian formulation of generic many-body systems with balanced loss and gain is presented. It is shown that a Hamiltonian formulation is possible only if the balancing of loss and gain terms occurs in a pairwise fashion. It is also shown that with the choice of a suitable co-ordinate, the Hamiltonian can always be reformulated in the background of a pseudo-Euclidean metric. If the equations of motion of some of the well-known many-body systems like Calogero models are generalized to include balanced loss and gain, it appears that the same may not be amenable to a Hamiltonian formulation. A few exactly solvable systems with balanced loss and gain, along with a set of integrals of motion are constructed. The examples include a coupled chain of nonlinear oscillators and a many-particle Calogero-type model with four-body inverse square plus two-body pair-wise harmonic interactions. For the case of nonlinear oscillators, stable solution exists even if the loss and gain parameter has unbounded upper range. Further, the range of the parameter for which the stable solutions are obtained is independent of the total number of the oscillators. The set of coupled nonlinear equations are solved exactly for the case when the values of all the constants of motions except the Hamiltonian are equal to zero. Exact, analytical classical solutions are presented for all the examples considered.

  15. BALANCED SCORE CARD MODEL EVALUATION: THE CASE OF AD BARSKA PLOVIDBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses creation of Balanced Scorecard, which includes environmental protection elements in AD Barska Plovidba. Firstly,the paper presents proposed models that include elements of conventional Balanced scorecard, and then we start with proposed models evaluation. In fact, as implementation and evaluation of the model in AD Barska Plovidba takes longer period of time, its evaluation and final choice is based on ISO 14598 and ISO 9126 with use of AHP method. Usually those standards are used for quality evaluation of software products, computer programs and databases inside organisation. After all, they serve as support for their development and acceptance because they provide quality evaluation during the phase when software is not yet implemented inside organistaion, what we assume as very important.

  16. Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-Yr perspective, 1950-2080

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mernild, Sebastian H.; Liston, Glen E.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    to simulate variations in theGrISmelt extent, surfacewater balance components, changes inSMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A1B modeled by the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM) using boundary conditions from the ECHAM...... and correct RCM output data before they were used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirmthemodel's robustness. The authors simulated an ~90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 × 106 km2) from 1950...

  17. Surface Energy Balance in Jakarta and Neighboring Regions As Simulated Using Fifth Mesoscale Model (MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to assess the surface energy balance particularly in terms of the computed surface energy and radiation balance and the development of boundary layer over Jakarta and Neighboring Regions (JNR by means of numerical model of fifth generation of Mesoscale Model (MM5. The MM5 with four domains of 9 kilometers in spatial resolution presenting the outermost and the innermost of JNR is utilized. The research focuses on the third and fourth domains covering the entire JNR. The description between radiation and energy balance at the surface is obtained from the model. The result showed that energy balance is higher in the city area during daytime. Meanwhile, energy components, e.g., surface sensible and latent heat flux showed that at the sea and in the city areas were higher than other areas. Moreover, ground flux showed eastern region was higher than others. In general, radiation and energy balance was higher in the daytime and lower in the nighttime for all regions. The calculation of Bowen Ratio, the ratio of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, was also higher in the city area, reflecting the dominations of urban and built-up land in the region. Meanwhile, Bowen Ratio in the rural area dominated by irrigated cropland was lower. It is consistent with changes of land cover properties, e.g. albedo, soil moisture, and thermal characteristics. In addition, the boundary layer is also higher in the city. Meanwhile western region dominated by suburban showed higher boundary layer instead of eastern region.

  18. Measuring and modeling the temporal dynamics of nitrogen balance in an experimental-scale paddy field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, C.; Lin, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrogen balance involves many mechanisms and plays an important role to maintain the function of nature. Fertilizer application in agriculture activity is usually seen as a common and significant nitrogen input to environment. Improper fertilizer application on paddy field can result in great amount of various types of nitrogen losses. Hence, it is essential to understand and quantify the nitrogen dynamics in paddy field for fertilizer management and pollution control. In this study, we develop a model which considers major transformation processes of nitrogen (e.g. volatilization, nitrification, denitrification and plant uptake). In addition, we measured different types of nitrogen in plants, soil and water at plant growth stages in an experimental-scale paddy field in Taiwan. The measurement includes total nitrogen in plants and soil, and ammonium-N (NH4+-N), nitrate-N (NO3--N) and organic nitrogen in water. The measured data were used to calibrate the model parameters and validate the model for nitrogen balance simulation. The results showed that the model can accurately estimate the temporal dynamics of nitrogen balance in paddy field during the whole growth stage. This model might be helpful and useful for future fertilizer management and pollution control in paddy field.

  19. Physical Limitations of Empirical Field Models: Force Balance and Plasma Pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorin Zaharia; Cheng, C.Z.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we study whether the magnetic field of the T96 empirical model can be in force balance with an isotropic plasma pressure distribution. Using the field of T96, we obtain values for the pressure P by solving a Poisson-type equation (gradient) 2 P = (gradient) · (J x B) in the equatorial plane, and 1-D profiles on the Sun-Earth axis by integrating (gradient)P = J x B. We work in a flux coordinate system in which the magnetic field is expressed in terms of Euler potentials. Our results lead to the conclusion that the T96 model field cannot be in equilibrium with an isotropic pressure. We also analyze in detail the computation of Birkeland currents using the Vasyliunas relation and the T96 field, which yields unphysical results, again indicating the lack of force balance in the empirical model. The underlying reason for the force imbalance is likely the fact that the derivatives of the least-square fitted model B are not accurate predictions of the actual magnetospheric field derivatives. Finally, we discuss a possible solution to the problem of lack of force balance in empirical field models

  20. Climate sensitivity of glaciers in southern Norway: application of an energy-balance model to Nigardsbreen, Hellstugubreen and Alfotbreen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1992-01-01

    Three glaciers in southern Norway, with very different massbalance characteristics, are studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface. The model simulates the observed mass-balance profiles in a satisfactory way, and can thus be used with some confidence in a study of climate

  1. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  2. Mass balance-based regression modeling of PAHs accumulation in urban soils, role of urban development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Chang, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contents in 68 soils samples collected at housing developments that represent different length of development periods across Beijing. Based on the data, we derived a mass balanced mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of PAH accumulations in urban soils as affected by the urban developments. The key parameters were estimated by fitting the modified mass balance model to the data of PAH concentrations vs. building age of the sampling green area. The total PAH concentrations would increase from the baseline of 267 ng g −1 to 3631 ng g −1 during the period of 1978–2048. It showed that the dynamic changes in the rates of accumulations of light and heavy PAH species were related to the shifting of sources of fuels, combustion efficiencies, and amounts of energy consumed during the course of development. - Highlights: • Introduced a mass balance model for soil PAHs accumulation with urbanization. • Reconstructed the historical data of PAH accumulation in soil of Beijing, China. • The soil PAH concentrations would be doubled in the following 40 years. • The composition of PAH emissions were shifting to light PAH species. - Introduced a regression modeling approach to predict the changes of PAH concentrations in urban soil

  3. Computational modeling to predict nitrogen balance during acute metabolic decompensation in patients with urea cycle disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Erin L; Hall, Kevin D; McGuire, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Nutritional management of acute metabolic decompensation in amino acid inborn errors of metabolism (AA IEM) aims to restore nitrogen balance. While nutritional recommendations have been published, they have never been rigorously evaluated. Furthermore, despite these recommendations, there is a wide variation in the nutritional strategies employed amongst providers, particularly regarding the inclusion of parenteral lipids for protein-free caloric support. Since randomized clinical trials during acute metabolic decompensation are difficult and potentially dangerous, mathematical modeling of metabolism can serve as a surrogate for the preclinical evaluation of nutritional interventions aimed at restoring nitrogen balance during acute decompensation in AA IEM. A validated computational model of human macronutrient metabolism was adapted to predict nitrogen balance in response to various nutritional interventions in a simulated patient with a urea cycle disorder (UCD) during acute metabolic decompensation due to dietary non-adherence or infection. The nutritional interventions were constructed from published recommendations as well as clinical anecdotes. Overall, dextrose alone (DEX) was predicted to be better at restoring nitrogen balance and limiting nitrogen excretion during dietary non-adherence and infection scenarios, suggesting that the published recommended nutritional strategy involving dextrose and parenteral lipids (ISO) may be suboptimal. The implications for patients with AA IEM are that the medical course during acute metabolic decompensation may be influenced by the choice of protein-free caloric support. These results are also applicable to intensive care patients undergoing catabolism (postoperative phase or sepsis), where parenteral nutritional support aimed at restoring nitrogen balance may be more tailored regarding metabolic fuel selection.

  4. Modelling of rational economic proportions of the balance sheet structure of the petrochemical enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Tsvetkova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides the assessment of the balance sheet structure of rival companies of a petrochemical complex of the Russian Federation. J. Aubert-Kriye's method is chosen as a main methodical tool. Practical demonstration of the method is offered on the example of the enterprises of petrochemical business of PJSC “Sibur”, PJSC “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” and JSC “Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant”. The analysis of balance sheets showed that the enterprises have elements of irrational structure. “Sibur” differs in a low share of owner’s equity and a high share of long-term liabilities. “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” is characterized by the high share of owner’s equity which use for the purposes of development of the company and it is more expensive in comparison with liabilities. “Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant” has excessive values of liquidity rates that demonstrates accumulation of a money, their derivation in receivables. At the same time, processes of ongoing investment in upgrade of the equipment and expansion of capacities require cause necessity of support of a rational balance sheet structure of the enterprises of a petrochemical complex. On the example of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” modeling of a rational balance sheet structure of the company is carried out. The sequence of calculations included performing diagnostics of structural distribution of current assets and sources of means; determination of structure of financial and active elements of the entity; establishment of permissible limit of change of basic proportions and ratios by criterion of solvency and financial stability. Modeling of structure of a liability and current assets on the basis of the J. Aubert-Kriye's method showed a possibility of improvement of economic indicators of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim”. Further determination of range of tolerance for elements of the liabilities and current assets will allow to provide balance of economic proportions and

  5. Extension of the method of moments for population balances involving fractional moments and application to a typical agglomeration problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexiadis, Alessio; Vanni, Marco; Gardin, Pascal

    2004-08-01

    The method of moment (MOM) is a powerful tool for solving population balance. Nevertheless it cannot be used in every circumstance. Sometimes, in fact, it is not possible to write the governing equations in closed form. Higher moments, for instance, could appear in the evolution of the lower ones. This obstacle has often been resolved by prescribing some functional form for the particle size distribution. Another example is the occurrence of fractional moment, usually connected with the presence of fractal aggregates. For this case we propose a procedure that does not need any assumption on the form of the distribution but it is based on the "moments generating function" (that is the Laplace transform of the distribution). An important result of probability theory is that the kth derivative of the moments generating function represents the kth moment of the original distribution. This result concerns integer moments but, taking in account the Weyl fractional derivative, could be extended to fractional orders. Approximating fractional derivative makes it possible to express the fractional moments in terms of the integer ones and so to use regularly the method of moments.

  6. QSPR modeling of octanol/water partition coefficient of antineoplastic agents by balance of correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, Andrey A; Toropova, Alla P; Raska, Ivan; Benfenati, Emilio

    2010-04-01

    Three different splits into the subtraining set (n = 22), the set of calibration (n = 21), and the test set (n = 12) of 55 antineoplastic agents have been examined. By the correlation balance of SMILES-based optimal descriptors quite satisfactory models for the octanol/water partition coefficient have been obtained on all three splits. The correlation balance is the optimization of a one-variable model with a target function that provides both the maximal values of the correlation coefficient for the subtraining and calibration set and the minimum of the difference between the above-mentioned correlation coefficients. Thus, the calibration set is a preliminary test set. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Development of the ECLSS Sizing Analysis Tool and ARS Mass Balance Model Using Microsoft Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlothlin, E. P.; Yeh, H. Y.; Lin, C. H.

    1999-01-01

    The development of a Microsoft Excel-compatible Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) sizing analysis "tool" for conceptual design of Mars human exploration missions makes it possible for a user to choose a certain technology in the corresponding subsystem. This tool estimates the mass, volume, and power requirements of every technology in a subsystem and the system as a whole. Furthermore, to verify that a design sized by the ECLSS Sizing Tool meets the mission requirements and integrates properly, mass balance models that solve for component throughputs of such ECLSS systems as the Water Recovery System (WRS) and Air Revitalization System (ARS) must be developed. The ARS Mass Balance Model will be discussed in this paper.

  8. A Toolkit Modeling Approach for Sustainable Forest Management Planning: Achieving Balance between Science and Local Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian R. Sturtevant

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available To assist forest managers in balancing an increasing diversity of resource objectives, we developed a toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management (SFM. The approach inserts a meta-modeling strategy into a collaborative modeling framework grounded in adaptive management philosophy that facilitates participation among stakeholders, decision makers, and local domain experts in the meta-model building process. The modeling team works iteratively with each of these groups to define essential questions, identify data resources, and then determine whether available tools can be applied or adapted, or whether new tools can be rapidly created to fit the need. The desired goal of the process is a linked series of domain-specific models (tools that balances generalized "top-down" models (i.e., scientific models developed without input from the local system with case-specific customized "bottom-up" models that are driven primarily by local needs. Information flow between models is organized according to vertical (i.e., between scale and horizontal (i.e., within scale dimensions. We illustrate our approach within a 2.1 million hectare forest planning district in central Labrador, a forested landscape where social and ecological values receive a higher priority than economic values. However, the focus of this paper is on the process of how SFM modeling tools and concepts can be rapidly assembled and applied in new locations, balancing efficient transfer of science with adaptation to local needs. We use the Labrador case study to illustrate strengths and challenges uniquely associated with a meta-modeling approach to integrated modeling as it fits within the broader collaborative modeling framework. Principle advantages of the approach include the scientific rigor introduced by peer-reviewed models, combined with the adaptability of meta-modeling. A key challenge is the limited transparency of scientific models to different participatory groups

  9. Surface water management: a user's guide to calculate a water balance using the CREAMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, L.J.

    1984-11-01

    The hydrologic component of the CREAMS model is described and discussed in terms of calculating a surface water balance for shallow land burial systems used for waste disposal. Parameter estimates and estimation procedures are presented in detail in the form of a user's guide. Use of the model is illustrated with three examples based on analysis of data from Los Alamos, New Mexico and Rock Valley, Nevada. Use of the model in design of trench caps for shallow land burial systems is illustrated with the example applications at Los Alamos

  10. NETPATH-WIN: an interactive user version of the mass-balance model, NETPATH

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Kadi, A. I.; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, P.

    2011-01-01

    NETPATH-WIN is an interactive user version of NETPATH, an inverse geochemical modeling code used to find mass-balance reaction models that are consistent with the observed chemical and isotopic composition of waters from aquatic systems. NETPATH-WIN was constructed to migrate NETPATH applications into the Microsoft WINDOWS® environment. The new version facilitates model utilization by eliminating difficulties in data preparation and results analysis of the DOS version of NETPATH, while preserving all of the capabilities of the original version. Through example applications, the note describes some of the features of NETPATH-WIN as applied to adjustment of radiocarbon data for geochemical reactions in groundwater systems.

  11. Regional Balance Model of Financial Flows through Sectoral Approaches System of National Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Aleksandrovna Zaharchuk

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the study, the results of which are reflected in this article, is the theoretical and methodological substantiation of possibilities to build a regional balance model of financial flows consistent with the principles of the construction of the System of National Accounts (SNA. The paper summarizes the international experience of building regional accounts in the SNA as well as reflects the advantages and disadvantages of the existing techniques for constructing Social Accounting Matrix. The authors have proposed an approach to build the regional balance model of financial flows, which is based on the disaggregated tables of the formation, distribution and use of the added value of territory in the framework of institutional sectors of SNA (corporations, public administration, households. Within the problem resolution of the transition of value added from industries to sectors, the authors have offered an approach to the accounting of development, distribution and use of value added within the institutional sectors of the territories. The methods of calculation are based on the publicly available information base of statistics agencies and federal services. The authors provide the scheme of the interrelations of the indicators of the regional balance model of financial flows. It allows to coordinate mutually the movement of regional resources by the sectors of «corporation», «public administration» and «households» among themselves, and cash flows of the region — by the sectors and directions of use. As a result, they form a single account of the formation and distribution of territorial financial resources, which is a regional balance model of financial flows. This matrix shows the distribution of financial resources by income sources and sectors, where the components of the formation (compensation, taxes and gross profit, distribution (transfers and payments and use (final consumption, accumulation of value added are

  12. Explicit validation of a surface shortwave radiation balance model over snow-covered complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, N.; Löwe, H.; Mayer, B.; Lehning, M.

    2010-09-01

    A model that computes the surface radiation balance for all sky conditions in complex terrain is presented. The spatial distribution of direct and diffuse sky radiation is determined from observations of incident global radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at a single measurement location. Incident radiation under cloudless sky is spatially derived from a parameterization of the atmospheric transmittance. Direct and diffuse sky radiation for all sky conditions are obtained by decomposing the measured global radiation value. Spatial incident radiation values under all atmospheric conditions are computed by adjusting the spatial radiation values obtained from the parametric model with the radiation components obtained from the decomposition model at the measurement site. Topographic influences such as shading are accounted for. The radiosity approach is used to compute anisotropic terrain reflected radiation. Validations of the shortwave radiation balance model are presented in detail for a day with cloudless sky. For a day with overcast sky a first validation is presented. Validation of a section of the horizon line as well as of individual radiation components is performed with high-quality measurements. A new measurement setup was designed to determine terrain reflected radiation. There is good agreement between the measurements and the modeled terrain reflected radiation values as well as with incident radiation values. A comparison of the model with a fully three-dimensional radiative transfer Monte Carlo model is presented. That validation reveals a good agreement between modeled radiation values.

  13. Inverse Force Determination on a Small Scale Launch Vehicle Model Using a Dynamic Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Christina L.; Powell, Jessica M.; Ross, James C.

    2017-01-01

    A launch vehicle can experience large unsteady aerodynamic forces in the transonic regime that, while usually only lasting for tens of seconds during launch, could be devastating if structural components and electronic hardware are not designed to account for them. These aerodynamic loads are difficult to experimentally measure and even harder to computationally estimate. The current method for estimating buffet loads is through the use of a few hundred unsteady pressure transducers and wind tunnel test. Even with a large number of point measurements, the computed integrated load is not an accurate enough representation of the total load caused by buffeting. This paper discusses an attempt at using a dynamic balance to experimentally determine buffet loads on a generic scale hammer head launch vehicle model tested at NASA Ames Research Center's 11' x 11' transonic wind tunnel. To use a dynamic balance, the structural characteristics of the model needed to be identified so that the natural modal response could be and removed from the aerodynamic forces. A finite element model was created on a simplified version of the model to evaluate the natural modes of the balance flexures, assist in model design, and to compare to experimental data. Several modal tests were conducted on the model in two different configurations to check for non-linearity, and to estimate the dynamic characteristics of the model. The experimental results were used in an inverse force determination technique with a psuedo inverse frequency response function. Due to the non linearity, the model not being axisymmetric, and inconsistent data between the two shake tests from different mounting configuration, it was difficult to create a frequency response matrix that satisfied all input and output conditions for wind tunnel configuration to accurately predict unsteady aerodynamic loads.

  14. The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

    2017-05-03

    The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

  15. A Well-Balanced and Fully Coupled Noncapacity Model for Dam-Break Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyuan Yue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The last two decades have seen great progress in mathematical modeling of fluvial processes and flooding in terms of either approximation of the physical processes or dealing with the numerical difficulties. Yet attention to simultaneously taking advancements of both aspects is rarely paid. Here a well-balanced and fully coupled noncapacity model is presented of dam-break flooding over erodible beds. The governing equations are based on the complete mass and momentum conservation laws, implying fully coupled interactions between the dam-break flow and sediment transport. A well-balanced Godunov-type finite volume method is used to solve the governing equations, facilitating satisfactory representation of the complex flow phenomena. The well-balanced property is attained by using the divergence form of matrix related to the static force for the bottom slope source term. Existing classical tests, including idealized dam-break flooding over irregular topography and experimental dam-break flooding with/without sediment transport, are numerically simulated, showing a satisfactory quantitative performance of this model.

  16. Home-Based Risk of Falling Assessment Test Using a Closed-Loop Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayena, Johannes C; Zaibi, Helmi; Otis, Martin J-D; Menelas, Bob-Antoine J

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study is to improve and facilitate the methods used to assess risk of falling at home among older people through the computation of a risk of falling in real time in daily activities. In order to increase a real time computation of the risk of falling, a closed-loop balance model is proposed and compared with One-Leg Standing Test (OLST). This balance model allows studying the postural response of a person having an unpredictable perturbation. Twenty-nine volunteers participated in this study for evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed system which includes seventeen elder participants: ten healthy elderly ( 68.4 ±5.5 years), seven Parkinson's disease (PD) subjects ( 66.28 ±8.9 years), and twelve healthy young adults ( 28.27 ±3.74 years). Our work suggests that there is a relationship between OLST score and the risk of falling based on center of pressure measurement with four low cost force sensors located inside an instrumented insole, which could be predicted using our suggested closed-loop balance model. For long term monitoring at home, this system could be included in a medical electronic record and could be useful as a diagnostic aid tool.

  17. Modelling the snowmelt and the snow water equivalent by creating a simplified energy balance conceptual snow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboust, Philippe; Thirel, Guillaume; Le Moine, Nicolas; Ribstein, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    A better knowledge of the accumulated snow on the watersheds will help flood forecasting centres and hydro-power companies to predict the amount of water released during spring snowmelt. Since precipitations gauges are sparse at high elevations and integrative measurements of the snow accumulated on watershed surface are hard to obtain, using snow models is an adequate way to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) on watersheds. In addition to short term prediction, simulating accurately SWE with snow models should have many advantages. Validating the snow module on both SWE and snowmelt should give a more reliable model for climate change studies or regionalization for ungauged watersheds. The aim of this study is to create a new snow module, which has a structure that allows the use of measured snow data for calibration or assimilation. Energy balance modelling seems to be the logical choice for designing a model in which internal variables, such as SWE, could be compared to observations. Physical models are complex, needing high computational resources and many different types of inputs that are not widely measured at meteorological stations. At the opposite, simple conceptual degree-day models offer to simulate snowmelt using only temperature and precipitation as inputs with fast computing. Its major drawback is to be empirical, i.e. not taking into account all of the processes of the energy balance, which makes this kind of model more difficult to use when willing to compare SWE to observed measurements. In order to reach our objectives, we created a snow model structured by a simplified energy balance where each of the processes is empirically parameterized in order to be calculated using only temperature, precipitation and cloud cover variables. This model's structure is similar to the one created by M.T. Walter (2005), where parameterizations from the literature were used to compute all of the processes of the energy balance. The conductive fluxes into the

  18. When growth and photosynthesis don't match: implications for carbon balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlyn, B.; Mahmud, K.; Duursma, R.; Pfautsch, S.; Campany, C.

    2017-12-01

    Most models of terrestrial plant growth are based on the principle of carbon balance: that growth can be predicted from net uptake of carbon via photosynthesis. A key criticism leveled at these models by plant physiologists is that there are many circumstances in which plant growth appears to be independent of photosynthesis: for example, during the onset of drought, or with rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. A crucial problem for terrestrial carbon cycle models is to develop better representations of plant carbon balance when there is a mismatch between growth and photosynthesis. Here we present two studies providing insight into this mismatch. In the first, effects of root restriction on plant growth were examined by comparing Eucalyptus tereticornis seedlings growing in containers of varying sizes with freely-rooted seedlings. Root restriction caused a reduction in photosynthesis, but this reduction was insufficient to explain the even larger reduction observed in growth. We applied data assimilation to a simple carbon balance model to quantify the response of carbon balance as a whole in this experiment. We inferred that, in addition to photosynthesis, there are significant effects of root restriction on growth respiration, carbon allocation, and carbohydrate utilization. The second study was carried out at the EucFACE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment. At this experiment, photosynthesis of the overstorey trees is increased with enriched CO2, but there is no significant effect on above-ground productivity. These mature trees have reached their maximum height but are at significant risk of canopy loss through disturbance, and we hypothesized that additional carbon taken up through photosynthesis is preferentially allocated to storage rather than growth. We tested this hypothesis by measuring stemwood non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) during a psyllid outbreak that completely defoliated the canopy in 2015. There was a significant drawdown of NSC during

  19. Streamline-concentration balance model for in-situ uranium leaching and site restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bommer, P.M.; Schechter, R.S.; Humenick, M.J.

    1981-03-01

    This work presents two computer models. One describes in-situ uranium leaching and the other describes post leaching site restoration. Both models use a streamline generator to set up the flow field over the reservoir. The leaching model then uses the flow data in a concentration balance along each streamline coupled with the appropriate reaction kinetics to calculate uranium production. The restoration model uses the same procedure except that binary cation exchange is used as the restoring mechanism along each streamline and leaching cation clean up is simulated. The mathematical basis for each model is shown in detail along with the computational schemes used. Finally, the two models have been used with several data sets to point out their capabilities and to illustrate important leaching and restoration parameters and schemes

  20. Streamline-concentration balance model for in situ uranium leaching and site restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bommer, P.M.

    1979-01-01

    This work presents two computer models. One describes in situ uranium leaching and the other describes post leaching site restoration. Both models use a streamline generator to set up the flow field over the reservoir. The leaching model then uses the flow data in a concentration balance along each streamline coupled with the appropriate reaction kinetics to calculate uranium production. The restoration model uses the same procedure ecept that binary cation exchange is used as the restoring mechanism along each streamline and leaching cation clean up is stimulated. The mathematical basis for each model is shown in detail along with the computational schemes used. Finally, the two models have been used with several data sets to point out their capabilities and to illustrate important leaching and restoration parameters and schemes

  1. An efficient soil water balance model based on hybrid numerical and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Wei; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan; Ye, Ming; Liu, Zhao; Wu, Jingwei

    2018-04-01

    Most soil water balance models only consider downward soil water movement driven by gravitational potential, and thus cannot simulate upward soil water movement driven by evapotranspiration especially in agricultural areas. In addition, the models cannot be used for simulating soil water movement in heterogeneous soils, and usually require many empirical parameters. To resolve these problems, this study derives a new one-dimensional water balance model for simulating both downward and upward soil water movement in heterogeneous unsaturated zones. The new model is based on a hybrid of numerical and statistical methods, and only requires four physical parameters. The model uses three governing equations to consider three terms that impact soil water movement, including the advective term driven by gravitational potential, the source/sink term driven by external forces (e.g., evapotranspiration), and the diffusive term driven by matric potential. The three governing equations are solved separately by using the hybrid numerical and statistical methods (e.g., linear regression method) that consider soil heterogeneity. The four soil hydraulic parameters required by the new models are as follows: saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated water content, field capacity, and residual water content. The strength and weakness of the new model are evaluated by using two published studies, three hypothetical examples and a real-world application. The evaluation is performed by comparing the simulation results of the new model with corresponding results presented in the published studies, obtained using HYDRUS-1D and observation data. The evaluation indicates that the new model is accurate and efficient for simulating upward soil water flow in heterogeneous soils with complex boundary conditions. The new model is used for evaluating different drainage functions, and the square drainage function and the power drainage function are recommended. Computational efficiency of the new

  2. Application of a water balance model for estimating deep infiltration in a karstic watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lúcia Calijuri

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The current scenario of water scarcity evidences the need for an adequate management of water resources. In karstic regions, the water flow through fractures significantly increases the water infiltration rate, which explains the small number of rivers and the importance of groundwater for urban supply. Therefore, the water balance is necessary since it may aid decision making processes and guide water management projects. The objective of this paper was to perform the water balance of a watershed situated in a karstic region quantifying infiltration, runoff and evapotranspiration. The study area is located near the Tancredo Neves International Airport in Confins, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Most of the area consists of forest formations (40.9%, and pastures (34.5%. In order to estimate deep infiltration, the BALSEQ model was used. BALSEQ is a numeric model of sequential water balance in which deep infiltration at the end of the day is given by the difference between daily precipitation and the sum of surface runoff, evapotranspiration and the variation of the amount of water stored in the soil. The results show that approximately 60% of total annual precipitation result in deep infiltration, considering the recharge period from September to March. After the dry period, the areas with no vegetal cover present higher deep infiltration. However, over the months, the contribution of the vegetated areas becomes greater, showing the importance of these areas to aquifer recharge.

  3. Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

    2018-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

  4. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  5. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    OpenAIRE

    Jícha Miroslav; Fišer Jan; Pokorný Jan

    2012-01-01

    In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whil...

  6. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  7. Water Balance Simulations of a PEM Fuel Cell Using a Two-Fluid Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berning, Torsten; Odgaard, Madeleine; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2010-01-01

    A previously published computational multi-phase model of a polymer-electrolyte membrane fuel cell has been extended in order to account for the anode side and the electrolyte membrane. The model has been applied to study the water balance of a fuel cell during operation under various humidificat...... net water transport coefficient. Thus we can reduce flooding at the cathode and may obtain improved cell performance due to a better humidified membrane. The results also suggest that membrane dehydration may occur at either anode or cathode depending on the net water transport....

  8. Model of observed stochastic balance between work and free time supporting the LQTAI definition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2008-01-01

    A balance differential equation between free time and money-producing work time on the national economy level is formulated in a previous paper in terms of two dimensionless quantities, the fraction of work time and the total productivity factor defined as the ratio of the Gross Domestic Product...... significant systematically balance influencing parameters on the macro economical level than those considered in the definition in the previous paper of the Life Quality Time Allocation Index....... to the total salary paid in return for work. Among the solutions there is one relation that compares surprisingly well with the relevant sequences of Danish data spanning from 1948 to 2003, and also with similar data from several other countries except for slightly different model parameter values. Statistical...

  9. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  10. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  11. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.

    2015-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex....... The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated (r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps...

  12. Balance or Synergies between Environment and Economy—A Note on Model Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wolf

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The UN sustainable development goals contain environmental, economic, and social objectives. They may only be reached, or at least it would be easier to reach them, if instead of a trade-off between these objectives that implies a need for balancing them, there are synergies to be reaped. This paper discusses how the structures of economic models typically used in policy analysis influence whether win–win strategies for the environment and the economy can be conceptualised and analysed. With a focus on climate policy modelling, the paper points out how, by construction, commonly used model structures find mitigation costs rather than benefits. This paper describes mechanisms that, when added to these model structures, can bring win–win options into a model’s solution horizon, and which provide a spectrum of alternative modelling approaches that allow for the identification of such options.

  13. The Development of a Fault Tree Model for Balance of Plant System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Park, Jin Hee; Lim, Ho Gon

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a fault tree modeling method for BOP (balance of plant) system to develop a combined risk model and trip model, and the application plans of the developed model. Where, the trip means the reactor trip and turbine and generator trip. We have usually modeled the safety-related systems and their supporting systems to assess the risk analysis of a nuclear power plant. However, the BOP system.s condition change induces the risk change. That is, the BOP system.s condition is relevant to plants. performance and affects to the plant risk. The existing model for BOP systems is a simplified system model or SPV (Single-point vulnerability) evaluation model. However, these models are not effective enough to use for the plant's performance evaluation. Also, lately an integrated decision-making framework is required for risk-informed applications. The methods for monitoring the performance of a nuclear power plant differ from the purpose. For example, MSPI (mitigating system performance index) and MR (maintenance rule) use different methods and indexes to monitor the performance. Therefore, for consistent decision-making, it is necessary to develop a risk assessment model including a systems model inducing reactor trip. The system.s model inducing reactor trip and turbine/generator trip is defined as the 'trip model'

  14. Monitoring the latent and sensible heat fluxes in vineyard by applying the energy balance model METRIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. González-Piqueras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The monitoring of the energy fluxes over vineyard applying the one source energy balance model METRIC (Allen et al., 2007b are shown in this work. This model is considered operaive because it uses an internalized calibration method derived from the selection of two extreme pixels in the scene, from the minimum ET values such as the bare soil to a maximum that corresponds to full cover active vegetation. The model provides the maps of net radiation (Rn, soil heat flux (G, sensible heat (H, latent heat (LE, evapotranspiration (ET and crop coefficient (Kc. The flux values have been validated with a flux tower installed in the plot, providing a RMSE for instantaneous fluxes of 43 W m2, 33 W m2, 55 W m2 y 40 W m2 on Rn, G, H and LE. In relative terms are 8%, 29%, 21% and 20% respectively. The RMSE at daily scale for the ET is 0.58 mm day-1, with a value in the crop coefficient for the mid stage of 0.42±0.08. These results allow considering the model adequate for crop monitoring and irrigation purposes in vineyard. The values obtained have been compared to other studies over vineyard and with alternative energy balance models showing similar results.

  15. Modeling the Surface Energy Balance of the Core of an Old Mediterranean City: Marseille.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemonsu, A.; Grimmond, C. S. B.; Masson, V.

    2004-02-01

    The Town Energy Balance (TEB) model, which parameterizes the local-scale energy and water exchanges between urban surfaces and the atmosphere by treating the urban area as a series of urban canyons, coupled to the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) scheme, was run in offline mode for Marseille, France. TEB's performance is evaluated with observations of surface temperatures and surface energy balance fluxes collected during the field experiments to constrain models of atmospheric pollution and transport of emissions (ESCOMPTE) urban boundary layer (UBL) campaign. Particular attention was directed to the influence of different surface databases, used for input parameters, on model predictions. Comparison of simulated canyon temperatures with observations resulted in improvements to TEB parameterizations by increasing the ventilation. Evaluation of the model with wall, road, and roof surface temperatures gave good results. The model succeeds in simulating a sensible heat flux larger than heat storage, as observed. A sensitivity comparison using generic dense city parameters, derived from the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land cover database, and those from a surface database developed specifically for the Marseille city center shows the importance of correctly documenting the urban surface. Overall, the TEB scheme is shown to be fairly robust, consistent with results from previous studies.

  16. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  17. A general consumer-resource population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  18. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  19. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  20. Effect of xanthohumol on Th1/Th2 balance in a breast cancer mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenchao; Pan, Yanlong; Gou, Panhong; Zhou, Cheng; Ma, Lianqing; Liu, Qiming; Du, Yuping; Yang, Jinbo; Wang, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Xanthohumol (XN), a prenylflavonoid found in the hop plant, Humulus lupulus, exhibits a variety of biological activities. Numerous studies have reported that XN inhibits the growth of many types of cancer cells, but the effects of XN on tumor immunity have not yet been studied. We explored the effect of XN on Th1/Th2 balance and the underlying mechanism based on a BALB/c-4T1 breast cancer mouse model. The results showed that XN significantly slowed down tumor growth and inhibited expression of antitumor proliferation protein Ki-67 as well as breast cancer-specific marker cancer antigen 15-3 (CA15-3). Flow cytometric analysis revealed that XN enhanced the secretion of perforin, granzyme B and increased the ratio of CD8+/CD25+. ELISA analysis of cytokine results demonstrated that XN obviously upregulated Th1 cytokines, while downregulated Th2 cytokines. Th1/Th2 ratio analysis by flow cytometry illustrated that XN regulated the balance drift to Th1 polarization. Western blotting and immunohistochemistry (IHC) results manifested that XN induced expression of T-bet, a Th1-specific transcription factor. Furthermore, we found that XN significantly promoted the phosphorylation of signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT)4. Our results demonstrated that XN promoted Th1/Th2 balance towards Th1 polarization, and STAT4 may play a positive role in the regulation of Th1/Th2 cytokines by XN.

  1. Model-based Assessment for Balancing Privacy Requirements and Operational Capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knirsch, Fabian [Salzburg Univ. (Austria); Engel, Dominik [Salzburg Univ. (Austria); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-02-17

    The smart grid changes the way energy is produced and distributed. In addition both, energy and information is exchanged bidirectionally among participating parties. Therefore heterogeneous systems have to cooperate effectively in order to achieve a common high-level use case, such as smart metering for billing or demand response for load curtailment. Furthermore, a substantial amount of personal data is often needed for achieving that goal. Capturing and processing personal data in the smart grid increases customer concerns about privacy and in addition, certain statutory and operational requirements regarding privacy aware data processing and storage have to be met. An increase of privacy constraints, however, often limits the operational capabilities of the system. In this paper, we present an approach that automates the process of finding an optimal balance between privacy requirements and operational requirements in a smart grid use case and application scenario. This is achieved by formally describing use cases in an abstract model and by finding an algorithm that determines the optimum balance by forward mapping privacy and operational impacts. For this optimal balancing algorithm both, a numeric approximation and – if feasible – an analytic assessment are presented and investigated. The system is evaluated by applying the tool to a real-world use case from the University of Southern California (USC) microgrid.

  2. Heat balance model for a human body in the form of wet bulb globe temperature indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakoi, Tomonori; Mochida, Tohru; Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kuwabara, Kohei; Horiba, Yosuke; Sawada, Shin-Ichi

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to expand the empirically derived wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index to a rational thermal index based on the heat balance for a human body. We derive the heat balance model in the same form as the WBGT for a human engaged in moderate intensity work with a metabolic heat production of 174W/m 2 while wearing typical vapor-permeable clothing under shady and sunny conditions. Two important relationships are revealed based on this derivation: (1) the natural wet bulb and black globe temperature coefficients in the WBGT coincide with the heat balance equation for a human body with a fixed skin wettedness of approximately 0.45 at a fixed skin temperature; and (2) the WBGT can be interpreted as the environmental potential to increase skin temperature rather than the heat storage rate of a human body. We propose an adjustment factor calculation method that supports the application of WBGT for humans dressed in various clothing types and working under various air velocity conditions. Concurrently, we note difficulties in adjusting the WBGT by using a single factor for humans wearing vapor-impermeable protective clothing. The WBGT for shady conditions does not need adjustment depending on the positive radiant field (i.e., when a radiant heat source exists), whereas that for the sunny condition requires adjustments because it underestimates heat stress, which may result in insufficient human protection measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  4. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  5. Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

  6. A Network-Based Data Envelope Analysis Model in a Dynamic Balanced Score Card

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Akbarian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance assessment during the time and along with strategies is the most important requirements of top managers. To assess the performance, a balanced score card (BSC along with strategic goals and a data envelopment analysis (DEA are used as powerful qualitative and quantitative tools, respectively. By integrating these two models, their strengths are used and their weaknesses are removed. In this paper, an integrated framework of the BSC and DEA models is proposed for measuring the efficiency during the time and along with strategies based on the time delay of the lag key performance indicators (KPIs of the BSC model. The causal relationships during the time among perspectives of the BSC model are drawn as dynamic BSC at first. Then, after identifying the network-DEA structure, a new objective function for measuring the efficiency of nine subsidiary refineries of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC during the time and along with strategies is developed.

  7. Mapping the Habitable Zone of Exoplanets with a 2D Energy Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Nicole Taylor; Dr. Lisa Kaltenegger, Dr. Ramses Ramirez

    2018-01-01

    Traditionally, the habitable zone has been defined as the distance at which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. However, different complexity models (simplified and fast:1D, and complex and time-intense:3D) models derive different boundaries for the habitable zone. The goal of this project was to test a new intermediate complexity 2D Energy Balance model, add a new ice albedo feedback mechanism, and derive the habitable zone boundaries. After completing this first project, we also studied how other feedback mechanisms, such as the presence of clouds and the carbonate-silicate cycle, effected the location of the habitable zone boundaries using this 2D model. This project was completed as part of a 2017 summer REU program hosted by Cornell's Center for Astrophysics and Plantary Sciecne and in partnership with the Carl Sagan Institute.

  8. An analytical force balance model for dust particles with size up to several Debye lengths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussems, D. U. B.; Khrapak, S. A.; Doǧan, I.; van de Sanden, M. C. M.; Morgan, T. W.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we developed a revised stationary force balance model for particles in the regime a / λ D < 10 . In contrast to other analytical models, the pressure and dipole force were included too, and for anisotropic plasmas, a novel contribution to the dipole moment was derived. Moreover, the Coulomb logarithm and collection cross-section were modified. The model was applied on a case study where carbon dust is formed near the plasma sheath in the linear plasma device Pilot-PSI. The pressure force and dipole force were found to be significant. By tracing the equilibrium position, the particle radius was determined at which the particle deposits. The obtained particle radius agrees well with the experimentally obtained size and suggests better agreement as compared to the unrevised model.

  9. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorný, Jan; Fišer, Jan; Jícha, Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whilst car is moving. Measurements of the real operating conditions of gave us data for model calibration. The model was calibrated for Škoda Felicia parking-summer scenarios.

  10. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jícha Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whilst car is moving. Measurements of the real operating conditions of gave us data for model calibration. The model was calibrated for Škoda Felicia parking-summer scenarios.

  11. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  12. A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Raymond A; Hayden, Jennifer D; Kamble, Pravin S; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Huang, Joanna C

    2017-04-01

    We compared methods to control bias and confounding in observational studies including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and stabilized IPW (sIPW). These methods often require iteration and post-calibration to achieve covariate balance. In comparison, entropy balance (EB) optimizes covariate balance a priori by calibrating weights using the target's moments as constraints. We measured covariate balance empirically and by simulation by using absolute standardized mean difference (ASMD), absolute bias (AB), and root mean square error (RMSE), investigating two scenarios: the size of the observed (exposed) cohort exceeds the target (unexposed) cohort and vice versa. The empirical application weighted a commercial health plan cohort to a nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey target on the same covariates and compared average total health care cost estimates across methods. Entropy balance alone achieved balance (ASMD ≤ 0.10) on all covariates in simulation and empirically. In simulation scenario I, EB achieved the lowest AB and RMSE (13.64, 31.19) compared with IPW (263.05, 263.99) and sIPW (319.91, 320.71). In scenario II, EB outperformed IPW and sIPW with smaller AB and RMSE. In scenarios I and II, EB achieved the lowest mean estimate difference from the simulated population outcome ($490.05, $487.62) compared with IPW and sIPW, respectively. Empirically, only EB differed from the unweighted mean cost indicating IPW, and sIPW weighting was ineffective. Entropy balance demonstrated the bias-variance tradeoff achieving higher estimate accuracy, yet lower estimate precision, compared with IPW methods. EB weighting required no post-processing and effectively mitigated observed bias and confounding. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Exact correlations in the Lieb-Liniger model and detailed balance out-of-equilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo De Nardis, Miłosz Panfil

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We study the density-density correlation function of the 1D Lieb-Liniger model and obtain an exact expression for the small momentum limit of the static correlator in the thermodynamic limit. We achieve this by summing exactly over the relevant form factors of the density operator in the small momentum limit. The result is valid for any eigenstate, including thermal and non-thermal states. We also show that the small momentum limit of the dynamic structure factors obeys a generalized detailed balance relation valid for any equilibrium state.

  14. Mathematical modeling of water mass balance for proton exchange membrane fuel cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Ramli Wan Daud; Kamaruzzaman Sopian; Jaafar Sahari; Nik Suhaimi Mat Hassan

    2006-01-01

    Gas and water management are key to achieving good performance from a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack. Water plays a critical role in PEMFC. The proton conductivity is increase with the water content. In order to achieve enough hydration, water is normally introduced into the cell externally by a variety of methods such as liquid injection, steam introduction, and humidification of reactants by passing them through humidifiers before entering the cell. In this paper, mathematical modeling of water mass balance for PEMFC at anode and cathode side are proposed by using external humidification and assume that steady state, constant pressure, constant temperature and gases distribution are uniform

  15. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  16. Uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model at multiple flux tower sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingshi; Senay, Gabriel B.; Singh, Ramesh K.; Verdin, James P.

    2016-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water cycle – ET from the land surface returns approximately 60% of the global precipitation back to the atmosphere. ET also plays an important role in energy transport among the biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere. Current regional to global and daily to annual ET estimation relies mainly on surface energy balance (SEB) ET models or statistical and empirical methods driven by remote sensing data and various climatological databases. These models have uncertainties due to inevitable input errors, poorly defined parameters, and inadequate model structures. The eddy covariance measurements on water, energy, and carbon fluxes at the AmeriFlux tower sites provide an opportunity to assess the ET modeling uncertainties. In this study, we focused on uncertainty analysis of the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model for ET estimation at multiple AmeriFlux tower sites with diverse land cover characteristics and climatic conditions. The 8-day composite 1-km MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) was used as input land surface temperature for the SSEBop algorithms. The other input data were taken from the AmeriFlux database. Results of statistical analysis indicated that the SSEBop model performed well in estimating ET with an R2 of 0.86 between estimated ET and eddy covariance measurements at 42 AmeriFlux tower sites during 2001–2007. It was encouraging to see that the best performance was observed for croplands, where R2 was 0.92 with a root mean square error of 13 mm/month. The uncertainties or random errors from input variables and parameters of the SSEBop model led to monthly ET estimates with relative errors less than 20% across multiple flux tower sites distributed across different biomes. This uncertainty of the SSEBop model lies within the error range of other SEB models, suggesting systematic error or bias of the SSEBop model is within

  17. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  18. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  19. Active influence in dynamical models of structural balance in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Tyler H.; Shames, Iman

    2013-07-01

    We consider a nonlinear dynamical system on a signed graph, which can be interpreted as a mathematical model of social networks in which the links can have both positive and negative connotations. In accordance with a concept from social psychology called structural balance, the negative links play a key role in both the structure and dynamics of the network. Recent research has shown that in a nonlinear dynamical system modeling the time evolution of “friendliness levels” in the network, two opposing factions emerge from almost any initial condition. Here we study active external influence in this dynamical model and show that any agent in the network can achieve any desired structurally balanced state from any initial condition by perturbing its own local friendliness levels. Based on this result, we also introduce a new network centrality measure for signed networks. The results are illustrated in an international-relations network using United Nations voting record data from 1946 to 2008 to estimate friendliness levels amongst various countries.

  20. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  1. Balancing accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility in a radiative transfer parameterization for dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mlawer, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Radiation is key process in numerical models of the atmosphere. The problem is well-understood and the parameterization of radiation has seen relatively few conceptual advances in the past 15 years. It is nonthelss often the single most expensive component of all physical parameterizations despite being computed less frequently than other terms. This combination of cost and maturity suggests value in a single radiation parameterization that could be shared across models; devoting effort to a single parameterization might allow for fine tuning for efficiency. The challenge lies in the coupling of this parameterization to many disparate representations of clouds and aerosols. This talk will describe RRTMGP, a new radiation parameterization that seeks to balance efficiency and flexibility. This balance is struck by isolating computational tasks in "kernels" that expose as much fine-grained parallelism as possible. These have simple interfaces and are interoperable across programming languages so that they might be repalced by alternative implementations in domain-specific langauges. Coupling to the host model makes use of object-oriented features of Fortran 2003, minimizing branching within the kernels and the amount of data that must be transferred. We will show accuracy and efficiency results for a globally-representative set of atmospheric profiles using a relatively high-resolution spectral discretization.

  2. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  3. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  4. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

  5. An economic model of friendship and enmity for measuring social balance in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Shin, Euncheol; You, Seungil

    2017-12-01

    We propose a dynamic economic model of networks where agents can be friends or enemies with one another. This is a decentralized relationship model in that agents decide whether to change their relationships so as to minimize their imbalanced triads. In this model, there is a single parameter, which we call social temperature, that captures the degree to which agents care about social balance in their relationships. We show that the global structure of relationship configuration converges to a unique stationary distribution. Using this stationary distribution, we characterize the maximum likelihood estimator of the social temperature parameter. Since the estimator is computationally challenging to calculate from real social network datasets, we provide a simple simulation algorithm and verify its performance with real social network datasets.

  6. A dynamic force balance model for colloidal expansion and its DLVO-based application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Longcheng; Moreno, Luis; Neretnieks, Ivars

    2009-01-20

    A force balance model that describes the dynamic expansion of colloidal bentonite gels/sols is presented. The colloidal particles are assumed to consist of one or several thin sheets with the other dimensions much larger than their thickness. The forces considered include van der Waals force, diffuse double layer force, thermal force giving rise to Brownian motion, gravity, as well as friction force. The model results in an expression resembling the instationary diffusion equation but with an immensely variable diffusivity. This diffusivity is strongly influenced by the concentration of counterions as well as by the particle concentration in the colloid gel/sol. The properties of the model are explored and discussed, exemplified by the upward expansion of an originally highly compacted bentonite tablet in a test tube. Examples are presented for a number of cases with ionic concentrations varying between very dilute waters up to several molar of counterions. The volume fraction of particles ranges from 40% to very dilute sols.

  7. BALANCED SCORECARD AS AN ADVANCED MANAGEMENT CONCEPT WITHIN THE INTEGRATED QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevan Zivojinovic

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The significance of >Integratedquality management< (IQM model, originating form St.Gallen-model, is reflected in the need for synergic application of new and advanced concepts of management theory and practise. Balanced score card (BSC within IQM model becomes a catalyst of business success for a modern organization by focusing on organizational variables-business strategy, organization structure and corporate culture. BSC is the leading system of performance tracking and strategy implementation, consistent with other management concepts and methods for managing process improvement. Through BSC, IQM processes' activities correlate with organization business results. BSC management processes enable integration of all decision-making levels, from institutional via strategic to operative, in the process starting from planing, i.e. formulating and implementation of strategy, to feed back by performance measurement and control.

  8. The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Limits to Export-Led Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Blecker

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses how A. P. Thirlwall's model of balance-of-payments-constrained growth can be adapted to analyze the idea of a "fallacy of composition" in the export-led growth strategy of many developing countries. The Deaton-Muellbauer model of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS is used to represent the adding-up constraints on individual countries' exports, when they are all trying to export competing products to the same foreign markets (i.e. newly industrializing countries are exporting similar types of manufactured goods to the OECD countries. The relevance of the model to the recent financial crises in developing countries and policy alternatives for redirecting development strategies are also discussed.

  9. Numerical modeling of sandwich panel response to ballistic loading - energy balance for varying impactor geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2007-01-01

    thickness but significantly smaller than panel length dimensions. Experimental data for the total loss in impactor kinetic energy and momentum and estimated damage energy are described. For a selection of impactor tip shapes, the numerical model is used to evaluate different simplified force histories...... between the impactor and the panel during penetration. The force histories are selected from a primary criterion of conservation of linear momentum in the impactor-panel system, and evaluated according to agreement with the total measured energy balance.......A sandwich panel is described by an axisymmetric lumped mass- spring model. The panel compliance is simplified, considering only core shear deformation uniformly distributed across the core thickness. Transverse penetrating impact is modeled for impactors of diameters comparable to the panel...

  10. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  11. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  12. Genetic controls balancing excitatory and inhibitory synaptogenesis in neurodevelopmental disorder models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl L Gatto

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Proper brain function requires stringent balance of excitatory and inhibitory synapse formation during neural circuit assembly. Mutation of genes that normally sculpt and maintain this balance results in severe dysfunction, causing neurodevelopmental disorders including autism, epilepsy and Rett syndrome. Such mutations may result in defective architectural structuring of synaptic connections, molecular assembly of synapses and/or functional synaptogenesis. The affected genes often encode synaptic components directly, but also include regulators that secondarily mediate the synthesis or assembly of synaptic proteins. The prime example is Fragile X syndrome (FXS, the leading heritable cause of both intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorders. FXS results from loss of mRNA-binding FMRP, which regulates synaptic transcript trafficking, stability and translation in activity-dependent synaptogenesis and plasticity mechanisms. Genetic models of FXS exhibit striking excitatory and inhibitory synapse imbalance, associated with impaired cognitive and social interaction behaviors. Downstream of translation control, a number of specific synaptic proteins regulate excitatory versus inhibitory synaptogenesis, independently or combinatorially, and loss of these proteins is also linked to disrupted neurodevelopment. The current effort is to define the cascade of events linking transcription, translation and the role of specific synaptic proteins in the maintenance of excitatory versus inhibitory synapses during neural circuit formation. This focus includes mechanisms that fine-tune excitation and inhibition during the refinement of functional synaptic circuits, and later modulate this balance throughout life. The use of powerful new genetic models has begun to shed light on the mechanistic bases of excitation/inhibition imbalance for a range of neurodevelopmental disease states.

  13. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  14. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  15. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    environmental conditions. Three cases are presented and discussed in this thesis. Common to all is the use of S. cerevisiae as model organism, and the use of cell size and cell cycle position as single-cell descriptors. The first case focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of a yeast...

  16. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  17. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  18. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  19. Introducing the Evaluation Tools for HSE Management System Performance Using Balanced Score Card Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The performance of the HSE units has various dimensions Leading to different performances. Thus, any industry should be capable of evaluating these systems. The aim of this study was to design a standard questionnaire in the field of performance evaluation of HSE management system employing Balanced Score Card model. Methods: In this study we, first determined the criteria to be evaluated in the framework of Balanced Score Card model based on the objectives and strategies of HSE Management System and existing standards, and then designed questions on every criterion. We used content validity and Cronbach's Alpha to determine the reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Results: The primary questionnaire was comprised of 126 questions some of which were omitted regarding the results obtained from the CVR and CVI values. We obtained the CVI average of environmental dimension to be 0.75 and its CVI average 0.71. Conclusion: With respect to the results of the reliability and validity of this questionnaire,and its standardized design we can suggest using it for evaluation of HSE management system performance in organizations and industries with the mentioned system.

  20. A network flow model for load balancing in circuit-switched multicomputers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhari, Shahid H.

    1990-01-01

    In multicomputers that utilize circuit switching or wormhole routing, communication overhead depends largely on link contention - the variation due to distance between nodes is negligible. This has a major impact on the load balancing problem. In this case, there are some nodes with excess load (sources) and others with deficit load (sinks) and it is required to find a matching of sources to sinks that avoids contention. The problem is made complex by the hardwired routing on currently available machines: the user can control only which nodes communicate but not how the messages are routed. Network flow models of message flow in the mesh and the hypercube were developed to solve this problem. The crucial property of these models is the correspondence between minimum cost flows and correctly routed messages. To solve a given load balancing problem, a minimum cost flow algorithm is applied to the network. This permits one to determine efficiently a maximum contention free matching of sources to sinks which, in turn, tells one how much of the given imbalance can be eliminated without contention.

  1. Dynamic modelling of balance of plant systems for a pulsed DEMO power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrington, C., E-mail: Chris.Harrington@ccfe.ac.uk

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • A fully dynamic model of the balance of plant systems for pulsed DEMO is presented. • An operating strategy for handling pulse/dwell transitions has been devised. • Operation of a water-cooled system without energy storage appears feasible. • Steam turbine cycling can be minimised if rotation speed is maintained. - Abstract: The current baseline concept for a European DEMO defines a pulsed reactor producing power for periods of 2–4 h at a time, interrupted by dwell periods of approximately half an hour, potentially leading to cyclic fatigue of the heat transfer system and power generation equipment. Thermal energy storage systems could mitigate pulsing issues; however, the requirements for such a system cannot be defined without first understanding the challenges for pulsed operation, while any system will simultaneously increase the cost and complexity of the balance of plant. This work therefore presents a dynamic model of the primary heat transfer system and associated steam plant for a water-cooled DEMO, without energy storage, capable of simulating pulsed plant operation. An operating regime is defined such that the primary coolant flows continuously throughout the dwell period while the secondary steam flow is reduced. Simulation results show minimised thermal and pressure transients in the primary circuit, and small thermally induced stresses on the steam turbine rotor. If the turbine can be kept spinning to also minimise mechanical cycling, pulsed operation of a water-cooled DEMO without thermal energy storage may be feasible.

  2. Assessing harmonic current source modelling and power definitions in balanced and unbalanced networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson-Hope, Gary; Stemmet, W.C. [Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Cape Town Campus, Cape Town (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess the DlgSILENT PowerFactory software power definitions (indices) in terms of phase and sequence components for balanced and unbalanced networks when harmonic distortion is present and to compare its results to hand calculations done, following recommendation made by the IEEE Working Group on this topic. This paper also includes the development of a flowchart for calculating power indices in balanced and unbalanced three-phase networks when non-sinusoidal voltages and currents are present. A further purpose is to determine how two industrial grade harmonic analysis software packages (DlgSILENT and ERACS) model three-phase harmonic sources used for current penetration studies and to compare their results when applied to a network. From the investigations, another objective was to develop a methodology for modelling harmonic current sources based on a spectrum obtained from measurements. Three case studies were conducted and the assessment and developed methodologies were shown to be effective. (Author)

  3. Simulating the carbon balance in reclaimed forest ecosystems with the FORECAST model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welham, C. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Forest Sciences, Forest Ecosystem Simulation Group; ForRx Consulting, Belcarra, BC (Canada); 3GreenTree Ecosystem Services Ltd., Belcarra, BC (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Large emission sources are beginning to report their carbon footprint on an annual basis as a result of government mandates, shareholder demand for disclosure of a company's risk to climate change, and as part of corporate social responsibility initiatives. Oil sands mining is a carbon intensive activity from the perspective of carbon dioxide emissions. The intensity of carbon emissions can be mitigated through technological and process innovations. However, reclamation is the only mining-related activity that directly removes atmospheric carbon dioxide. This presentation described a modeling exercise that had 3 principal objectives, notably to simulate the carbon balance in a developing reclaimed upland forest ecosystem; to explore the relative change in carbon pools over time; and to compare the carbon balance of the reclaimed ecosystem to its natural analogue. The presentation provided a description of the model and methodology and discussed the simulation protocol. Imperial Oil's Kearl Lake operation, which was used as a test case, showed that approximately 83,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare can be sequestered per year as a result of reclamation. tabs., figs.

  4. Modelling and computing the peaks of carbon emission with balanced growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu; Wang, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We use a more practical utility function to quantify the society’s welfare. • A so-called discontinuous Galerkin method is proposed to solve the ordinary differential equation satisfied by the consumption. • The theoretical results of the discontinuous Galerkin method are obtained. • We establish a Markov model to forecast the energy mix and the industrial structure. - Abstract: In this paper, we assume that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path, the economic growth rate is equal to the consumption growth rate, from which we can obtain the ordinary differential equation governing the consumption level by solving an optimal control problem. Then, a novel numerical method, namely a so-called discontinuous Galerkin method, is applied to solve the ordinary differential equation. The error estimation and the superconvergence estimation of this method are also performed. The model’s mechanism, which makes our assumption coherent, is that once the energy intensity is given, the economic growth is determined, followed by the GDP, the energy demand and the emissions. By applying this model to China, we obtain the conclusion that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path the CO_2 emission will reach its peak in 2030 in China, which is consistent with the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and with other previous scientific results.

  5. Can segmental model reductions quantify whole-body balance accurately during dynamic activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamkrajang, Parunchaya; Robinson, Mark A; Limroongreungrat, Weerawat; Vanrenterghem, Jos

    2017-07-01

    When investigating whole-body balance in dynamic tasks, adequately tracking the whole-body centre of mass (CoM) or derivatives such as the extrapolated centre of mass (XCoM) can be crucial but add considerable measurement efforts. The aim of this study was to investigate whether reduced kinematic models can still provide adequate CoM and XCoM representations during dynamic sporting tasks. Seventeen healthy recreationally active subjects (14 males and 3 females; age, 24.9±3.2years; height, 177.3±6.9cm; body mass 72.6±7.0kg) participated in this study. Participants completed three dynamic movements, jumping, kicking, and overarm throwing. Marker-based kinematic data were collected with 10 optoelectronic cameras at 250Hz (Oqus Qualisys, Gothenburg, Sweden). The differences between (X)CoM from a full-body model (gold standard) and (X)CoM representations based on six selected model reductions were evaluated using a Bland-Altman approach. A threshold difference was set at ±2cm to help the reader interpret which model can still provide an acceptable (X)CoM representation. Antero-posterior and medio-lateral displacement profiles of the CoM representation based on lower limbs, trunk and upper limbs showed strong agreement, slightly reduced for lower limbs and trunk only. Representations based on lower limbs only showed less strong agreement, particularly for XCoM in kicking. Overall, our results provide justification of the use of certain model reductions for specific needs, saving measurement effort whilst limiting the error of tracking (X)CoM trajectories in the context of whole-body balance investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Power Balance Modeling of Local Helicity Injection for Non-Solenoidal ST Startup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weberski, J. D.; Barr, J. L.; Bongard, M. W.; Fonck, R. J.; Perry, J. M.; Reusch, J. A.

    2017-10-01

    A zero-dimensional power balance model for predicting Ip(t) for Local Helicity Injection (LHI) discharges has been used to interpret experimental results from recent experimental campaigns using high-field-side (HFS) helicity injection. This model quantifies LHI's effective drive (Veff) through helicity balance while enforcing the Taylor relaxation current limit and tracking inductive effects to determine Ip(t) . Recent analysis of HFS LHI discharges indicate LHI is the dominant source of drive and provides Veff up to 1.3 V while geometric effects and inductive drive provide < 0.1 V throughout much of the discharge. In contrast to previous analysis of low-field-side (LFS) LHI discharges, which were driven by Veff = 0.3 V and 2.0 V from geometric effects and inductive drive. A significant remaining uncertainty in the model is the resistive dissipation of LHI discharges. This requires greater understanding of LHI confinement scaling and impurity content, which are currently under investigation. However, the model and experimental Ip(t) exhibit good agreement for parameters consistent with previous experimental findings. Extrapolation of plasma parameters and shaping from recent experiments allow for the model to project the performance of LHI systems. These projections indicate Ip 0.3 MA can be accessed on Pegasus via HFS LHI through changes to injector geometry to provide more Veff. This regime can be accessed via a LFS system by increasing the Taylor relaxation current limit early in the discharge. Work supported by US DOE Grants DE-FG02-96ER54375 and DE-SC0006928.

  7. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled

  8. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  9. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  10. A model of Alto Lazio boiling water reactor using the LEGO code balance of plant simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spelta, S.; Garbossa, G.B.

    1989-01-01

    An extensive effort has been made at the Italian National Electricity Board (ENEL) to construct and validate a LEGO model capable of simulating the operational transients of the Alto Lazio Nuclear Station, a two twin-units site with BWR/6 class reactors, rated at 2894 MWt and with Mark III containment. LEGO is a modular package developed at the Research and development Department of the Italian National Electricity Board (CRA-ENEL) for computer aided modeling of fossil-fired and nuclear steam power plants. In this paper a system analysis model capable of describing steady-state and transient performance of the Balance of Plant (BOP) of the Alto Lazio Power Station is presented. This is one of two companion papers devoted to the description of the overall plant model including both the Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) and the BOP. In the paper, after a brief summary of the main LEGO characteristics, a description of the BOP lay-out is presented. The overall model, which has been set-up, including control systems and automation, is very detailed and consists of almost 2000 differential or algebraic equations. After a brief description of the mathematical model, two significant transients obtained using the overall model are presented and discussed

  11. Mean field theory for a balanced hypercolumn model of orientation selectivity in primary visual cortex

    CERN Document Server

    Lerchner, A; Hertz, J; Ahmadi, M

    2004-01-01

    We present a complete mean field theory for a balanced state of a simple model of an orientation hypercolumn. The theory is complemented by a description of a numerical procedure for solving the mean-field equations quantitatively. With our treatment, we can determine self-consistently both the firing rates and the firing correlations, without being restricted to specific neuron models. Here, we solve the analytically derived mean-field equations numerically for integrate-and-fire neurons. Several known key properties of orientation selective cortical neurons emerge naturally from the description: Irregular firing with statistics close to -- but not restricted to -- Poisson statistics; an almost linear gain function (firing frequency as a function of stimulus contrast) of the neurons within the network; and a contrast-invariant tuning width of the neuronal firing. We find that the irregularity in firing depends sensitively on synaptic strengths. If Fano factors are bigger than 1, then they are so for all stim...

  12. Geochemical modelling of Na-SO4 type groundwater at Palmottu using a mass balance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitkaenen, P.

    1993-01-01

    The mass balance chemical modelling technique has been applied to the groundwaters at the Palmottu analogue study site (in southwestern Finland) for radioactive waste disposal. The geochemical modelling concentrates on the evolution of Na-SO 4 type groundwater, which is spatially connected to the uranium mineralization. The results calculated along an assumed flow path are consistent with available field data and thermodynamic constraints. The results show that essential production of sulphides is unrealistic in the prevailing conditions. The increasing concentrations of Na, SO 4 and Cl along the evolution trend seem to have the same source and they could originate mainly from the leakage of fluid inclusions. Some mixing of relict sea water is also possible

  13. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  14. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  15. Regional Modeling of Dust Mass Balance and Radiative Forcing over East Asia using WRF-Chem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Siyu; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Huang, J.; Huang, Zhongwei; Bi, Jianrong; Zhang, Wu; Shi, Jinsen; Yang, Lei; Li, Deshuai; Li, Jinxin

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate the seasonal and annual variations of mineral dust over East Asia during 2007-2011, with a focus on the dust mass balance and radiative forcing. A variety of measurements from in-stu and satellite observations have been used to evaluate simulation results. Generally, WRF-Chem reproduces not only the column variability but also the vertical profile and size distribution of mineral dust over and near the dust source regions of East Asia. We investigate the dust lifecycle and the factors that control the seasonal and spatial variations of dust mass balance and radiative forcing over the seven sub-regions of East Asia, i.e. source regions, the Tibetan Plateau, Northern China, Southern China, the ocean outflow region, and Korea-Japan regions. Results show that, over the source regions, transport and dry deposition are the two dominant sinks. Transport contributes to ~30% of the dust sink over the source regions. Dust results in a surface cooling of up to -14 and -10 W m-2, atmospheric warming of up to 20 and 15 W m-2, and TOA cooling of -5 and -8 W m-2 over the two major dust source regions of East Asia, respectively. Over the Tibetan Plateau, transport is the dominant source with a peak in summer. Over identified outflow regions, maximum dust mass loading in spring is contributed by the transport. Dry and wet depositions are the comparably dominant sinks, but wet deposition is larger than dry deposition over the Korea-Japan region, particularly in spring (70% versus 30%). The WRF-Chem simulations can generally capture the measured features of dust aerosols and its radaitve properties and dust mass balance over East Asia, which provides confidence for use in further investigation of dust impact on climate over East Asia.

  16. A Simplified Model of Human Alcohol Metabolism That Integrates Biotechnology and Human Health into a Mass Balance Team Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Allen H. J.; Dimiduk, Kathryn; Daniel, Susan

    2011-01-01

    We present a simplified human alcohol metabolism model for a mass balance team project. Students explore aspects of engineering in biotechnology: designing/modeling biological systems, testing the design/model, evaluating new conditions, and exploring cutting-edge "lab-on-a-chip" research. This project highlights chemical engineering's impact on…

  17. Development and application of the Qausi Distributed Water Balance model (QDWB in the Neishaboor-Rokh watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sajjad razavi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Limitation of water resources in Iran motivates sustaining and preserving of the resources in order to supply future water needs. Fulfilling these objectives will not be possible unless having accurate water balance of watersheds. The purpose of this study is to estimate the water balance parameters using a distributed method. The large number of distributed models and methods was studied and “Quasi Distributed Water Balance model” (QDWB was written in the MATLAB programming environment. To conduct this model, it is needed that each data layer (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, land use, soil data,.. to be converted into grid format. In this research the 500m * 500m cell size was used and water balance parameters for each cell was estimated. Runoff and deep percolation obtained from surface balance equation and irrigation needs were estimated based on soil moisture deficit. The study area of 9157 square kilometers is Neyshabour- Rokh watershed. The results showed there is a good correlation between water balance parameters such as precipitation-runoff, precipitation-evapotranspiration, and precipitation- deep percoulation and demonstrate that QDWB model is consistent with the basin hydrological process.Change in soil moisture at basin wide is 1 MCM in 1388-89 and 40 MCM in 1380-81. The evapotranspiration results from a distributed model” SWAT” and QDWB model were in good agreement.

  18. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  19. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  20. Balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model for knowledge growth

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Lorz, Alexander; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2016-01-01

    events or by producing goods with the knowledge they already have. The existence of balanced growth path solutions implies exponential growth of the overall production in time. We prove existence of balanced growth path solutions if the initial

  1. Balance of trade and government intervention — Japan as a role model?

    OpenAIRE

    Schnabl, Gunther

    1996-01-01

    Japan's industrial and trade policies are often seen as the reason for high Japanese balance of trade surpluses. Does this theory stand up to a close examination of the relationships between balance of trade, trade policy and structural change?

  2. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  3. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  4. Estimating Evapotranspiration from an Improved Two-Source Energy Balance Model Using ASTER Satellite Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qifeng Zhuang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Reliably estimating the turbulent fluxes of latent and sensible heat at the Earth’s surface by remote sensing is important for research on the terrestrial hydrological cycle. This paper presents a practical approach for mapping surface energy fluxes using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER images from an improved two-source energy balance (TSEB model. The original TSEB approach may overestimate latent heat flux under vegetative stress conditions, as has also been reported in recent research. We replaced the Priestley-Taylor equation used in the original TSEB model with one that uses plant moisture and temperature constraints based on the PT-JPL model to obtain a more accurate canopy latent heat flux for model solving. The collected ASTER data and field observations employed in this study are over corn fields in arid regions of the Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER area, China. The results were validated by measurements from eddy covariance (EC systems, and the surface energy flux estimates of the improved TSEB model are similar to the ground truth. A comparison of the results from the original and improved TSEB models indicates that the improved method more accurately estimates the sensible and latent heat fluxes, generating more precise daily evapotranspiration (ET estimate under vegetative stress conditions.

  5. Anticonvulsant profile of a balanced ketogenic diet in acute mouse seizure models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samala, Ramakrishna; Willis, Sarah; Borges, Karin

    2008-10-01

    Anticonvulsant effects of the ketogenic diet (KD) have been reported in the mouse, although previous studies did not control for intake of vitamins, minerals and antioxidants. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of balanced ketogenic and control diets in acute mouse seizure models. The behavior in four mouse seizure models, plasma d-beta-hydroxybutyrate (d-BHB) and glucose levels were determined after feeding control diet, 4:1 and 6:1 KDs with matched vitamins, minerals and antioxidants. Feeding 4:1 and 6:1 KDs ad lib to 3-week-old (adolescent) mice resulted in 1.2-2.2mM d-BHB in plasma, but did not consistently change glucose levels. The 6:1 KD reproducibly elevated the CC50 (current that initiates seizures in 50% mice tested) in the 6-Hz model after 14 days of feeding to adolescent CD1 mice. Higher plasma d-BHB levels correlated with anticonvulsant effects. Despite ketosis, no consistent anticonvulsant effects of KDs were found in the fluorothyl or pentylenetetrazole CD1 mouse models. The 4:1 KD was neither anticonvulsant nor neuroprotective in hippocampus in the C3H mouse kainate model. Taken together, the KD's anticonvulsant effect was limited to the 6-Hz model, required chronic feeding with 6:1 fat content, and was independent from lowering plasma glucose.

  6. Numerical thermal mathematical model correlation to thermal balance test using adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, T.; Bieler, A.; Thomas, N.

    2012-01-01

    We present structural and thermal model (STM) tests of the BepiColombo laser altimeter (BELA) receiver baffle with emphasis on the correlation of the data with a thermal mathematical model. The test unit is a part of the thermal and optical protection of the BELA instrument being tested under infrared and solar irradiation at University of Bern. An iterative optimization method known as particle swarm optimization has been adapted to adjust the model parameters, mainly the linear conductivity, in such a way that model and test results match. The thermal model reproduces the thermal tests to an accuracy of 4.2 °C ± 3.2 °C in a temperature range of 200 °C after using only 600 iteration steps of the correlation algorithm. The use of this method brings major benefits to the accuracy of the results as well as to the computational time required for the correlation. - Highlights: ► We present model correlations of the BELA receiver baffle to thermal balance tests. ► Adaptive particle swarm optimization has been adapted for the correlation. ► The method improves the accuracy of the correlation and the computational time.

  7. Performance evaluation of Al-Zahra academic medical center based on Iran balanced scorecard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeisi, Ahmad Reza; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein; Bakhsh, Roghayeh Mohammadi; Gangi, Hamid

    2012-01-01

    Growth and development in any country's national health system, without an efficient evaluation system, lacks the basic concepts and tools necessary for fulfilling the system's goals. The balanced scorecard (BSC) is a technique widely used to measure the performance of an organization. The basic core of the BSC is guided by the organization's vision and strategies, which are the bases for the formation of four perspectives of BSC. The goal of this research is the performance evaluation of Al-Zahra Academic Medical Center in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, based on Iran BSC model. This is a combination (quantitative-qualitative) research which was done at Al-Zahra Academic Medical Center in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences in 2011. The research populations were hospital managers at different levels. Sampling method was purposive sampling in which the key informed personnel participated in determining the performance indicators of hospital as the BSC team members in focused discussion groups. After determining the conceptual elements in focused discussion groups, the performance objectives (targets) and indicators of hospital were determined and sorted in perspectives by the group discussion participants. Following that, the performance indicators were calculated by the experts according to the predetermined objectives; then, the score of each indicator and the mean score of each perspective were calculated. Research findings included development of the organizational mission, vision, values, objectives, and strategies. The strategies agreed upon by the participants in the focus discussion group included five strategies, which were customer satisfaction, continuous quality improvement, development of human resources, supporting innovation, expansion of services and improving the productivity. Research participants also agreed upon four perspectives for the Al-Zahra hospital BSC. In the patients and community perspective (customer), two objectives and

  8. Population-based mammography screening below age 50: Balancing radiation-induced vs prevented breast cancer deaths

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Gelder (Rianne); G. Draisma (Gerrit); E.A.M. Heijnsdijk (Eveline); H.J. de Koning (Harry)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction:Exposure to ionizing radiation at mammography screening may cause breast cancer. Because the radiation risk increases with lower exposure age, advancing the lower age limit may affect the balance between screening benefits and risks. The present study explores the

  9. ORDERED MODEL PROCESSES, REFERENCE DECLARATION AND THE ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR A BALANCED SCORECARD CONTEXTUAL FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Jenkins , D. Randall

    2007-01-01

    Since its 1992 introduction, the Balanced Scorecard has received deserving accolades while academics continue investigating its pragmatic aspects. This paper contributes to the Balanced Scorecard literature, first, by proffering a logical explanation for its successful acclaim and, second, by setting forth an ordered management structure Balanced Scorecard contextual framework. The contextual framework reforms the Balanced Scorecard’s Learning and Growth Perspective by (i) effecting (subjecti...

  10. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  11. The development of an integrated Indonesian health care model using Kano's model, quality function deployment and balanced scorecard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonny, Zagloed, Teuku Yuri M.

    2017-11-01

    This paper aims to present an integrated health care model for Indonesian health care industry. Based on previous researches, there are two health care models in the industry such as decease- and patient-centered care models. In their developments, the patient-centered care model is widely applied due to its capability in reducing cost and improving quality simultaneously. However, there is still no comprehensive model resulting in cost reduction, quality improvement, patient satisfaction and hospital profitability simultaneously. Therefore, this research is intended to develop that model. In doing so, first, a conceptual model using Kano's Model, Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is developed to generate several important elements of the model as required by stakeholders. Then, a case study of an Indonesian hospital is presented to evaluate the validity of the model using correlation analysis. As a result, it can be concluded that the model is validated implying several managerial insights among its elements such as l) leadership (r=0.85) and context of the organization (r=0.77) improve operations; 2) planning (r=0.96), support process (r=0.87) and continual improvement (r=0.95) also improve operations; 3) operations improve customer satisfaction (r=0.89) and financial performance (r=0.93) and 4) customer satisfaction improves the financial performance (0.98).

  12. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  13. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    OpenAIRE

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  14. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, Z.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    The heat storage changes (Qt) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Qt for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Qt has been often neglected in

  15. Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2002-01-01

    The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

  16. Modeling nonlinear problems in the mechanics of strings and rods the role of the balance laws

    CERN Document Server

    O'Reilly, Oliver M

    2017-01-01

    This book presents theories of deformable elastic strings and rods and their application to broad classes of problems. Readers will gain insights into the formulation and analysis of models for mechanical and biological systems. Emphasis is placed on how the balance laws interplay with constitutive relations to form a set of governing equations. For certain classes of problems, it is shown how a balance of material momentum can play a key role in forming the equations of motion. The first half of the book is devoted to the purely mechanical theory of a string and its applications. The second half of the book is devoted to rod theories, including Euler’s theory of the elastica, Kirchhoff ’s theory of an elastic rod, and a range of Cosserat rod theories. A variety of classic and recent applications of these rod theories are examined. Two supplemental chapters, the first on continuum mechanics of three-dimensional continua and the second on methods from variational calculus, are included to provide relevant ...

  17. Measuring and modeling carbon balance in mountainous Northern Rocky mixed conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; Stenzel, J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought and wildfire caused by changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, increased fuel loads, and decades of fire suppression are reducing forest carbon uptake from local to continental scales. This trend is especially widespread in Idaho and the intermountain west and has important implications for climate change and forest management options. Given the key role of forests in climate regulation, understanding forest response to drought and the feedbacks to the atmosphere is a key research and policy-relevant priority globally. As temperature, fire, and precipitation regimes continue to change and there is increased risk of forest mortality, measurements and modeling at temporal and spatial scales that are conducive to understanding the impacts and underlying mechanisms of carbon and nutrient cycling become critically important. Until recently, sub-daily measurements of ecosystem carbon balance have been limited in remote, mountainous terrain (e.g Northern Rocky mountain forests). Here, we combine new measurement technology and state-of-the-art ecosystem modeling to determine the impact of drought on the total carbon balance of a mature, mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho. Our findings indicate that drought had no impact on aboveground NPP, despite early growing season reductions in soil moisture and fine root biomass compared to non-drought years in the past. Modeled estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest that a simultaneous reduction in heterotrophic respiration increased the carbon sink for this forest. This has important implications for forest management, such as thinning where the objectives are to increase forest resilience to fire and drought, but may decrease NEP.

  18. Torque balance, Taylor's constraint and torsional oscillations in a numerical model of the geodynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumberry, Mathieu; Bloxham, Jeremy

    2003-11-01

    Theoretical considerations and observations suggest that, to a first approximation, the Earth's dynamo is in a quasi-Taylor state, where the axial Lorentz torque on cylindrical surfaces co-axial with the rotation axis vanishes, except for the part involved in torsional oscillations. The latter are rigid azimuthal accelerations of cylindrical surfaces which oscillate with typical periods of decades. We present a solution of a numerical model of the geodynamo in which rigid accelerations of cylinder surfaces are observed. The underlying dynamic state in the model is not a Taylor state because the Reynolds stresses and viscous torque remain large and provide an effective way to balance a large Lorentz torque. This is a consequence of the limited parameter regime which can be attained numerically. Nevertheless, departures in the torque equilibrium are primarily counterbalanced by rigid accelerations of cylindrical surfaces, which, in turn, excite rigid azimuthal oscillations of the surfaces. We show that the azimuthal motion is indeed quasi-rigid, though the torsional oscillations that are produced in the model probably differ from those in the Earth's core because of the large influence of the Reynolds stresses on their dynamics. We also show that the continual excitation of rigid cylindrical accelerations is produced by the advection of the non-axisymmetric structure of the fields by a mean differential rotation of the cylindrical surfaces which produces disconnections and reconnections and continual fluctuations in the Lorentz torque and Reynolds stresses. We propose that the torque balance in Earth's core may evolve in a similar chaotic fashion, except that the influence of the Reynolds stresses is probably weaker. If this is the case, the Lorentz torque on a cylindrical surface is continually fluctuating, even though its time-averaged value vanishes and satisfies Taylor's constraint. Rigid accelerations of cylindrical surfaces are continually excited by the

  19. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  20. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  1. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  2. Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

    2014-01-01

    The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

  3. Generalised and Fractional Langevin Equations-Implications for Energy Balance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, N. W.; Chapman, S. C.; Chechkin, A.; Ford, I.; Klages, R.; Stainforth, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    Energy Balance Models (EBMs) have a long heritage in climate science, including their use in modelling anomalies in global mean temperature. Many types of EBM have now been studied, and this presentation concerns the stochastic EBMs, which allow direct treatment of climate fluctuations and noise. Some recent stochastic EBMs (e.g. [1]) map on to Langevin's original form of his equation, with temperature anomaly replacing velocity, and other corresponding replacements being made. Considerable sophistication has now been reached in the application of multivariate stochastic Langevin modelling in many areas of climate. Our work is complementary in intent and investigates the Mori-Kubo "Generalised Langevin Equation" (GLE) which incorporates non-Markovian noise and response in a univariate framework, as a tool for modelling GMT [2]. We show how, if it is present, long memory simplifies the GLE to a fractional Langevin equation (FLE). Evidence for long range memory in global temperature, and the success of fractional Gaussian noise in its prediction [5] has already motivated investigation of a power law response model [3,4,5]. We go beyond this work to ask whether an EBM of FLE-type exists, and what its solutions would be. [l] Padilla et al, J. Climate (2011); [2] Watkins, GRL (2013); [3] Rypdal, JGR (2012); [4] Rypdal and Rypdal, J. Climate (2014); [5] Lovejoy et al, ESDD (2015).

  4. A model proposal concerning balance scorecard application integrated with resource consumption accounting in enterprise performance management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ORHAN ELMACI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study intended to investigate the “Balance Scorecard (BSC model integrated with Resource Consumption Accounting (RCA” which helps to evaluate the enterprise as matrix structure in its all parts. It aims to measure how much tangible and intangible values (assets of enterprises contribute to the enterprises. In other words, it measures how effectively, actively, and efficiently these values (assets are used. In short, it aims to measure sustainable competency of enterprises. As expressing the effect of tangible and intangible values (assets of the enterprise on the performance in mathematical and statistical methods is insufficient, it is targeted that RCA Method integrated with BSC model is based on matrix structure and control models. The effects of all complex factors in the enterprise on the performance (productivity and efficiency estimated algorithmically with cause and effect diagram. The contributions of matrix structures for reaching the management functional targets of the enterprises that operate in market competitive environment increasing day to day, is discussed. So in the context of modern management theories, as a contribution to BSC approach which is in the foreground in today’s administrative science of enterprises in matrix organizational structures, multidimensional performance evaluation model -RCA integrated with BSC Model proposal- is presented as strategic planning and strategic evaluation instrument.

  5. New Departure from Nucleate Boiling model relying on first principle energy balance at the boiling surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demarly, Etienne; Baglietto, Emilio

    2017-11-01

    Predictions of Departure from Nucleate Boiling have been a longstanding challenge when designing heat exchangers such as boilers or nuclear reactors. Many mechanistic models have been postulated over more than 50 years in order to explain this phenomenon but none is able to predict accurately the conditions which trigger the sudden change of heat transfer mode. This work aims at demonstrating the pertinence of a new approach for detecting DNB by leveraging recent experimental insights. The new model proposed departs from all the previous models by making the DNB inception come from an energy balance instability at the heating surface rather than a hydrodynamic instability of the bubbly layer above the surface (Zuber, 1959). The main idea is to modulate the amount of heat flux being exchanged via the nucleate boiling mechanism by the wetted area fraction on the surface, thus allowing a completely automatic trigger of DNB that doesn't require any parameter prescription. This approach is implemented as a surrogate model in MATLAB in order to validate the principles of the model in a simple and controlled geometry. Good agreement is found with the experimental data leveraged from the MIT Flow Boiling at various flow regimes. Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL).

  6. The Martian climate and energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffert, M. I.

    1986-01-01

    The analysis begins with a seasonal energy balance model (EBM) for Mars. This is used to compute surface temperature versus x = sin(latitude) and time over the seasonal cycle. The core model also computes the evolving boundaries of the CO2 icecaps, net sublimational/condensation rates, and the resulting seasonal pressure wave. Model results are compared with surface temperature and pressure history data at Viking lander sites, indicating fairly good agreement when meridional heat transport is represented by a thermal diffusion coefficient D approx. 0.015 W/sq. m/K. Condensational wind distributions are also computed. An analytic model of Martian wind circulation is then proposed, as an extension of the EMB, which incorporates vertical wind profiles containing an x-dependent function evaluated by substitution in the equation defining the diffusion coefficient. This leads to a parameterization of D(x) and of the meridional circulation which recovers the high surface winds predicted by dynamic Mars atmosphere models (approx. 10 m/sec). Peak diffusion coefficients, D approx. 0.6 w/sq m/K, are found over strong Hadley zones - some 40 times larger than those of high-latitude baroclinic eddies. When the wind parameterization is used to find streamline patterns over Martian seasons, the resulting picture shows overturning hemispheric Hadley cells crossing the equator during solstices, and attaining peak intensities during the south summer dust storm season, while condensational winds are most important near the polar caps.

  7. The use of UML activity diagrams and the i* language in the modeling of the balanced scorecard implantation process

    OpenAIRE

    Haya, Mariela; Franch, Xavier; Mayol, Enric

    2005-01-01

    Business management is a complex task that can be facilitated using different methodologies and models. One of their most relevant purposes is to align the organization strategy with the daily functioning of the organization. One of these models is the Balanced Scorecard (BSC). In this paper, we propose a modeling strategy for the BSC implantation process. We will model it using UML Activity Diagrams and Strategy Dependency models of the language i*. The Activity Diagrams allow determining th...

  8. Uncertainty in a monthly water balance model using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Diego; Rivas, Yessica; Godoy, Alex

    2015-02-01

    Hydrological models are simplified representations of natural processes and subject to errors. Uncertainty bounds are a commonly used way to assess the impact of an input or model architecture uncertainty in model outputs. Different sets of parameters could have equally robust goodness-of-fit indicators, which is known as Equifinality. We assessed the outputs from a lumped conceptual hydrological model to an agricultural watershed in central Chile under strong interannual variability (coefficient of variability of 25%) by using the Equifinality concept and uncertainty bounds. The simulation period ran from January 1999 to December 2006. Equifinality and uncertainty bounds from GLUE methodology (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) were used to identify parameter sets as potential representations of the system. The aim of this paper is to exploit the use of uncertainty bounds to differentiate behavioural parameter sets in a simple hydrological model. Then, we analyze the presence of equifinality in order to improve the identification of relevant hydrological processes. The water balance model for Chillan River exhibits, at a first stage, equifinality. However, it was possible to narrow the range for the parameters and eventually identify a set of parameters representing the behaviour of the watershed (a behavioural model) in agreement with observational and soft data (calculation of areal precipitation over the watershed using an isohyetal map). The mean width of the uncertainty bound around the predicted runoff for the simulation period decreased from 50 to 20 m3s-1 after fixing the parameter controlling the areal precipitation over the watershed. This decrement is equivalent to decreasing the ratio between simulated and observed discharge from 5.2 to 2.5. Despite the criticisms against the GLUE methodology, such as the lack of statistical formality, it is identified as a useful tool assisting the modeller with the identification of critical parameters.

  9. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  10. Balance of Nanostructure and Bimetallic Interactions in Pt Model Fuel Cell Catalysts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friebel, Daniel; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian; Miller, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    We have studied the effect of nanostructuring in Pt monolayer model electrocatalysts on a Rh(111) single-crystal substrate on the adsorption strength of chemisorbed species. In situ high energy resolution fluorescence detection X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Pt L3 edge reveals characteristic...... changes of the shape and intensity of the “white-line” due to chemisorption of atomic hydrogen (Had) at low potentials and oxygen-containing species (O/OHad) at high potentials. On a uniform, two-dimensional Pt monolayer grown by Pt evaporation in ultrahigh vacuum, we observe a significant destabilization...... of both Had and O/OHad due to strain and ligand effects induced by the underlying Rh(111) substrate. When Pt is deposited via a wet-chemical route, by contrast, three-dimensional Pt islands are formed. In this case, strain and Rh ligand effects are balanced with higher local thickness of the Pt islands...

  11. Evaluation of globally available precipitation data products as input for water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebrenz, H.; Bárdossy, A.

    2009-04-01

    Subject of this study is the evaluation of globally available precipitation data products, which are intended to be used as input variables for water balance models in ungauged basins. The selected data sources are a) the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), b) the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and c) the Climate Research Unit (CRU), resulting into twelve globally available data products. The data products imply different data bases, different derivation routines and varying resolutions in time and space. For validation purposes, the ground data from South Africa were screened on homogeneity and consistency by various tests and an outlier detection using multi-linear regression was performed. External Drift Kriging was subsequently applied on the ground data and the resulting precipitation arrays were compared to the different products with respect to quantity and variance.

  12. Performance measurement of administration services using balance scorecard and Kano model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Danaei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper performs a survey to measure the performance of an administration unit in Iran based on a popular technique of balance scorecard. The study also uses Kano model to prioritize various factors and to provide necessary recommendation to improve the performance of different units. The survey has indicated that while these offices do well in terms of financial figures as well as customer perspective, they perform poorly in terms of learning and growth. According to our survey, it is essential to use information technology in general service offices, properly. In addition, these administrative agencies need to use hardware and software packages, more efficiently and these two basic items have received much attraction.

  13. Estimation of Evapotraspiration of Tamarisk using Energy Balance Models with High Resolution Airborne Imagery and LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geli, H. M.; Taghvaeian, S.; Neale, C. M.; Pack, R.; Watts, D. R.; Osterberg, J.

    2010-12-01

    The wide uncontrolled spread of the invasive species of Tamarisk (Salt Cedar) in the riparian areas of the southwest of the United States has become a source of concern to the water resource management community. This tree which was imported for ornamental purposes and to control bank erosion during the 1800’s later became problematic and unwanted due to its biophysical properties: Its vigorous growth out-competes native species for moisture, lowering water tables, increasing the soil salinity and hence becomes the dominant riparian vegetation especially over arid to semi-arid floodplain environments. Most importantly they consume large amounts of water leading to reduction of river flows and lowering the groundwater table. We implemented this study in an effort to provide reliable estimates of the amount of water consumed or “lost” by such species through evapotranspiration (ET) as well as to a better understand of the related land surface and near atmosphere interactions. The recent advances in remote sensing techniques and the related data quality made it possible to provide spatio-temporal estimates of ET at a considerably higher resolution and reliable accuracy over a wide range of surface heterogeneity. We tested two different soil-vegetation atmosphere transfer models (SVAT) that are based on thermal remote sensing namely: the two source model (TSM) of Norman et al. (1995) with its recent modifications and the Surface Energy balance algorithm (SEBAL) of Bastiaanssen et al. (1998) to estimate the different surface energy balance components and the evapotranspiration (ET) spatially. We used high resolution (1.0 meter pixel size) shortwave reflectance and longwave thermal airborne imagery acquired by the research aircraft at the Remote Sensing Services Lab at Utah State University (USU) and land use map classified from these images as well as a detailed vegetation height image acquired by the LASSI Lidar also developed at USU. We also compared estimates

  14. Changes in Burnout and Satisfaction With Work-Life Balance in Physicians and the General US Working Population Between 2011 and 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanafelt, Tait D; Hasan, Omar; Dyrbye, Lotte N; Sinsky, Christine; Satele, Daniel; Sloan, Jeff; West, Colin P

    2015-12-01

    To evaluate the prevalence of burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance in physicians and US workers in 2014 relative to 2011. From August 28, 2014, to October 6, 2014, we surveyed both US physicians and a probability-based sample of the general US population using the methods and measures used in our 2011 study. Burnout was measured using validated metrics, and satisfaction with work-life balance was assessed using standard tools. Of the 35,922 physicians who received an invitation to participate, 6880 (19.2%) completed surveys. When assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, 54.4% (n=3680) of the physicians reported at least 1 symptom of burnout in 2014 compared with 45.5% (n=3310) in 2011 (Pbalance also declined in physicians between 2011 and 2014 (48.5% vs 40.9%; Pbalance were observed by specialty. In contrast to the trends in physicians, minimal changes in burnout or satisfaction with work-life balance were observed between 2011 and 2014 in probability-based samples of working US adults, resulting in an increasing disparity in burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance in physicians relative to the general US working population. After pooled multivariate analysis adjusting for age, sex, relationship status, and hours worked per week, physicians remained at an increased risk of burnout (odds ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.80-2.16; Pbalance (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.75; Pbalance in US physicians worsened from 2011 to 2014. More than half of US physicians are now experiencing professional burnout. Copyright © 2015 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Nutrients and Energy Balance Analysis for a Conceptual Model of a Three Loops off Grid, Aquaponics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uri Yogev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Food security, specifically in water scarce regions, is an increasing local and global challenge. Finding new ways to increase agricultural production in a sustainable manner is required. The current study suggests a conceptual model to integrate established recirculating aquaculture practices into a near-zero discharge aquaponic system that efficiently utilizes water, excreted nutrients and organic matter for energy. The suggested model allows to significantly extend the planted area and recover energy in the form of biogas to operate the system off-grid. A mass balance model of nitrogen, carbon and energy was established and solved, based on data from the literature. Results demonstrate that a fish standing stock of about 700 kg would produce 3.4 tons of fish annually and enough nutrients to grow about 35 tons of tomatoes per year (chosen as a model plant and recover sufficient energy (70 kWh/day to run the system on biogas and use less water. If proven successful, this approach may play a major role in sustainably enhancing food security in rural and water scarce regions.

  16. Expanding a dynamic flux balance model of yeast fermentation to genome-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Yeast is considered to be a workhorse of the biotechnology industry for the production of many value-added chemicals, alcoholic beverages and biofuels. Optimization of the fermentation is a challenging task that greatly benefits from dynamic models able to accurately describe and predict the fermentation profile and resulting products under different genetic and environmental conditions. In this article, we developed and validated a genome-scale dynamic flux balance model, using experimentally determined kinetic constraints. Results Appropriate equations for maintenance, biomass composition, anaerobic metabolism and nutrient uptake are key to improve model performance, especially for predicting glycerol and ethanol synthesis. Prediction profiles of synthesis and consumption of the main metabolites involved in alcoholic fermentation closely agreed with experimental data obtained from numerous lab and industrial fermentations under different environmental conditions. Finally, fermentation simulations of genetically engineered yeasts closely reproduced previously reported experimental results regarding final concentrations of the main fermentation products such as ethanol and glycerol. Conclusion A useful tool to describe, understand and predict metabolite production in batch yeast cultures was developed. The resulting model, if used wisely, could help to search for new metabolic engineering strategies to manage ethanol content in batch fermentations. PMID:21595919

  17. Balancing anisotropic curvature with gauge fields in a class of shear-free cosmological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsrud, Mikjel

    2018-05-01

    We present a complete list of general relativistic shear-free solutions in a class of anisotropic, spatially homogeneous and orthogonal cosmological models containing a collection of n independent p-form gauge fields, where p\\in\\{0, 1, 2, 3\\} , in addition to standard ΛCDM matter fields modelled as perfect fluids. Here a (collection of) gauge field(s) balances anisotropic spatial curvature on the right-hand side of the shear propagation equation. The result is a class of solutions dynamically equivalent to standard FLRW cosmologies, with an effective curvature constant Keff that depends both on spatial curvature and the energy density of the gauge field(s). In the case of a single gauge field (n  =  1) we show that the only spacetimes that admit such solutions are the LRS Bianchi type III, Bianchi type VI0 and Kantowski–Sachs metric, which are dynamically equivalent to open (Keff0 ) FLRW models, respectively. With a collection of gauge fields (n  >  1) also Bianchi type II admits a shear-free solution (Keff>0 ). We identify the LRS Bianchi type III solution to be the unique shear-free solution with a gauge field Hamiltonian bounded from below in the entire class of models.

  18. Prediction of Critical Power and W' in Hypoxia: Application to Work-Balance Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Nathan E; Nichols, David S; Skiba, Philip F; Racinais, Sebastien; Périard, Julien D

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Develop a prediction equation for critical power (CP) and work above CP (W') in hypoxia for use in the work-balance ([Formula: see text]) model. Methods: Nine trained male cyclists completed cycling time trials (TT; 12, 7, and 3 min) to determine CP and W' at five altitudes (250, 1,250, 2,250, 3,250, and 4,250 m). Least squares regression was used to predict CP and W' at altitude. A high-intensity intermittent test (HIIT) was performed at 250 and 2,250 m. Actual and predicted CP and W' were used to compute W' during HIIT using differential ([Formula: see text]) and integral ([Formula: see text]) forms of the [Formula: see text] model. Results: CP decreased at altitude ( P equations for CP and W' developed in this study are suitable for use with the [Formula: see text] model in acute hypoxia. This enables the application of [Formula: see text] modelling to training prescription and competition analysis at altitude.

  19. Balancing the benefits and costs of antibiotic drugs: the TREAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibovici, L; Paul, M; Andreassen, S

    2010-12-01

    TREAT is a computerized decision support system aimed at improving empirical antibiotic treatment of inpatients with suspected bacterial infections. It contains a model that balances, for each antibiotic choice (including 'no antibiotics'), expected benefit and expected costs. The main benefit afforded by appropriate, empirical, early antibiotic treatment in moderate to severe infections is a better chance of survival. Each antibiotic drug was consigned three cost components: cost of the drug and administration; cost of side effects; and costs of future resistance. 'No treatment' incurs no costs. The model worked well for decision support. Its analysis showed, yet again, that for moderate to severe infections, a model that does not include costs of resistance to future patients will always return maximum antibiotic treatment. Two major moral decisions are hidden in the model: how to take into account the limited life-expectancy and limited quality of life of old or very sick patients; and how to assign a value for a life-year of a future, unnamed patient vs. the present, individual patient. © 2010 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2010 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  20. Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Christopher J; Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Farrell, Katharine N; Grimm, Volker

    2015-11-01

    Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tie models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that are included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.

  1. Integrating the context-appropriate balanced attention model and reinforcement sensitivity theory: Towards a domain-general personality process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Michael D; Jackson, Chris J; Walker, Benjamin R; O'Connor, Peter J; Gardiner, Elliroma

    2017-01-01

    Over the last 40 years or more the personality literature has been dominated by trait models based on the Big Five (B5). Trait-based models describe personality at the between-person level but cannot explain the within-person mental mechanisms responsible for personality. Nor can they adequately account for variations in emotion and behavior experienced by individuals across different situations and over time. An alternative, yet understated, approach to personality architecture can be found in neurobiological theories of personality, most notably reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST). In contrast to static trait-based personality models like the B5, RST provides a more plausible basis for a personality process model, namely, one that explains how emotions and behavior arise from the dynamic interaction between contextual factors and within-person mental mechanisms. In this article, the authors review the evolution of a neurobiologically based personality process model based on RST, the response modulation model and the context-appropriate balanced attention model. They argue that by integrating this complex literature, and by incorporating evidence from personality neuroscience, one can meaningfully explain personality at both the within- and between-person levels. This approach achieves a domain-general architecture based on RST and self-regulation that can be used to align within-person mental mechanisms, neurobiological systems and between-person measurement models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Simple Models for Model-based Portfolio Load Balancing Controller Synthesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edlund, Kristian Skjoldborg; Mølbak, Tommy; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2010-01-01

    of generation units existing in an electrical power supply network, for instance in model-based predictive control or declarative control schemes. We focus on the effectuators found in the Danish power system. In particular, the paper presents models for boiler load, district heating, condensate throttling...

  3. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Yu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  4. AN INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT CAR OWNERSHIP AND TRIP BALANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao FENG

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban transport emissions generated by automobile trips are greatly responsible for atmospheric pollution in both developed and developing countries. To match the long-term target of sustainable development, it seems to be important to specify the feasible level of car ownership and travel demand from environmental considerations. This research intends to propose an integrated modeling framework for optimal construction of a comprehensive transportation system by taking into consideration environmental constraints. The modeling system is actually a combination of multiple essential models and illustrated by using a bi-level programming approach. In the upper level, the maximization of both total car ownership and total number of trips by private and public travel modes is set as the objective function and as the constraints, the total emission levels at all the zones are set to not exceed the relating environmental capacities. Maximizing the total trips by private and public travel modes allows policy makers to take into account trip balance to meet both the mobility levels required by travelers and the environmentally friendly transportation system goals. The lower level problem is a combined trip distribution and assignment model incorporating traveler's route choice behavior. A logit-type aggregate modal split model is established to connect the two level problems. In terms of the solution method for the integrated model, a genetic algorithm is applied. A case study is conducted using road network data and person-trip (PT data collected in Dalian city, China. The analysis results showed that the amount of environmentally efficient car ownership and number of trips by different travel modes could be obtained simultaneously when considering the zonal control of environmental capacity within the framework of the proposed integrated model. The observed car ownership in zones could be increased or decreased towards the macroscopic optimization

  5. A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.

  6. Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: an appraisal of connectionist models on the balance scale task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinlan, P.T.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Jansen, B.R.J.; Booij, O.; Rendell, M.

    2007-01-01

    The present paper re-appraises connectionist attempts to explain how human cognitive development appears to progress through a series of sequential stages. Models of performance on the Piagetian balance scale task are the focus of attention. Limitations of these models are discussed and replications

  7. Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Portfolio-Balance Model Of Exchange Rates: Finite Sample Properties Of The GMM Estimator

    OpenAIRE

    Hong-Ghi Min

    2011-01-01

    Using Monte Carlo simulation of the Portfolio-balance model of the exchange rates, we report finite sample properties of the GMM estimator for testing over-identifying restrictions in the simultaneous equations model. F-form of Sargans statistic performs better than its chi-squared form while Hansens GMM statistic has the smallest bias.

  8. Estimating Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallee, H

    2012-01-01

    We report future projections of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) obtained with the regional climate model MAR, forced by the outputs of three CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) when considering two different warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The GCMs

  9. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are

  10. The exploration of trophic structure modeling using mass balance Ecopath model of Tangerang coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi, N. N.; Kamal, M.; Wardiatno, Y.; Rozi

    2018-04-01

    Ecopath model approach was used to describe trophic interaction, energy flows and ecosystem condition of Tangerang coastal waters. This model consists of 42 ecological groups, of which 41 are living groups and one is a detritus group. Trophic levels of these groups vary between 1.0 (for primary producers and detritus) to 4.03 (for tetraodontidae). Groups with trophic levels 2≤TLfish, while detritus has a positive impact on the majority of demersal fish. Leiognathidae havea negative impact on phytoplankton, zooplankton and several other groups. System omnivory index for this ecosystem is 0.151. System primary production/respiration (P/R) ratio of Tangerang coastal waters is 1.505. This coastal ecosystem is an immatureecosystem because it hasdegraded. Pedigree index for this model is 0.57. This model describes ecosystem condition affected by overfishing and antropogenic activities. Therefore, through Ecopath model we provide some suggestions about the ecosystem-based fisheries management.

  11. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

  12. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  13. Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

    -mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

  14. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  15. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  16. Modeling efficiency and water balance in PEM fuel cell systems with liquid fuel processing and hydrogen membranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearlman, Joshua B.; Bhargav, Atul; Shields, Eric B.; Jackson, Gregory S.; Hearn, Patrick L.

    Integrating PEM fuel cells effectively with liquid hydrocarbon reforming requires careful system analysis to assess trade-offs associated with H 2 production, purification, and overall water balance. To this end, a model of a PEM fuel cell system integrated with an autothermal reformer for liquid hydrocarbon fuels (modeled as C 12H 23) and with H 2 purification in a water-gas-shift/membrane reactor is developed to do iterative calculations for mass, species, and energy balances at a component and system level. The model evaluates system efficiency with parasitic loads (from compressors, pumps, and cooling fans), system water balance, and component operating temperatures/pressures. Model results for a 5-kW fuel cell generator show that with state-of-the-art PEM fuel cell polarization curves, thermal efficiencies >30% can be achieved when power densities are low enough for operating voltages >0.72 V per cell. Efficiency can be increased by operating the reformer at steam-to-carbon ratios as high as constraints related to stable reactor temperatures allow. Decreasing ambient temperature improves system water balance and increases efficiency through parasitic load reduction. The baseline configuration studied herein sustained water balance for ambient temperatures ≤35 °C at full power and ≤44 °C at half power with efficiencies approaching ∼27 and ∼30%, respectively.

  17. Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabitha A Graves

    Full Text Available Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic and bear rubs (opportunistic. We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1 lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2 provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3 yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight, and (4 improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed

  18. Test models for estimating radiation balance in different scales for Jaboticabal, SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valquíria de Alencar Beserra

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The net radiation (Rn in agroecosystems is the amount of energy that is available in the environment to heating processes of living organisms, air and soil; perspiration of animals and plants; photosynthesis and water evaporation. The Rn defines the type of climate and weather conditions prevailing in a region affecting the availability and thermal water, the fundamental understanding of genotype-environment, which ultimately determine the productivity of the agricultural system. Rn usually is used in models of weather and climate studies. The sustainability and economic viability of zootechnical activity is dependent on the positive interaction between animal and environment. Environmental factors such as water, shading, thermal exchanges sensible heat (conduction, convection and radiation skin and latent heat losses (evaporation and transpiration, conditioned by Rn, must be managed to provide the best results. The present study was conducted to develop and test models for accurate and precise radiation balance on the scales daily, monthly and seasonal ten-day for Jaboticabal - SP, due to the importance of estimates of net radiation for agricultural activities. We used daily meteorological data from weather station located in Jaboticabal, SP (coordinates: 21 ° 14'05 "South, 48 ° 17'09" West, 615m altitude at Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio Mesquita Filho" - FCAV/UNESP in a situation of default grass "Bahiagrass" during the period 20/08/2005 to 20/01/2012. The data used were the maximum temperature (Tmax, minimum (Tmin and mean (TMED; maximum relative humidity (URMáx, minimum (URMín and average (URMéd precipitation (mm, average velocity (m/s, Qo, solar radiation (MJ m-2, sunshine (hour meter (MJ m², soil temperature at two depths (Tsoil2CM, Tsoil5CM and class A pan evaporation (TCA (mm. The measures taken by the balance radiometer were taken as a reference to test other models. The models tested were those reported by NORMAN et al

  19. Downscaling of the global climate model data for the mass balance calculation of mountain glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Morozova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a hybrid method of downscaling of the GCM‑generated meteorological fields to the characteristic spatial resolution which is usually used for modeling of a single mountain glacier mass balance. The main purpose of the study is to develop a reliable forecasting method to evaluate future state of moun‑ tain glaciation under changing climatic conditions. The method consists of two stages. In the first or dynamical stage, we use results of calculations of the regional numerical model HadRM3P for the Black Sea‑Caspian region with a spatial resolution of 25 km [22]. Initial conditions for the HadRM3P were provided by the GCM devel‑ oped in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS (INMCM4 [18]. Calculations were carried out for two time periods: the present climate (1971–2000 and climate in the late 21st century (2071–2100 according to the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5. On the second stage of downscaling, further regionalization is achieved by projecting of RCM‑generated data to the high‑resolution (25 m digital altitude model in a domain enclosing a target glacier. Altitude gradients of the surface air temperature and precipitation were derived from the model data. Further on, both were corrected using data of observations. Incoming shortwave radiation was calculated in the mass balance model separately, taking into account characteristics of the slope, i.e. exposition and shading of each cell. Then, the method was tested for glaciers Marukh (Western Caucasus and Jankuat (Central Caucasus, both for the present‑day and for future climates. At the end of the 21st century, the air tem‑ perature rise predicted for the summer months was calculated to be about 5–6 °C, and the result for the winter to be minus 2–3 °C. Change in annual precipitation is not significant, less than 10%. Increase in the total short‑ wave radiation will be about 5%. These changes will result in the fact that

  20. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  1. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  2. Water and nutrient balances in a large tile-drained agricultural catchment: a distributed modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Li

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development and implementation of a distributed model of coupled water nutrient processes, based on the representative elementary watershed (REW approach, to the Upper Sangamon River Basin, a large, tile-drained agricultural basin located in central Illinois, mid-west of USA. Comparison of model predictions with the observed hydrological and biogeochemical data, as well as regional estimates from literature studies, shows that the model is capable of capturing the dynamics of water, sediment and nutrient cycles reasonably well. The model is then used as a tool to gain insights into the physical and chemical processes underlying the inter- and intra-annual variability of water and nutrient balances. Model predictions show that about 80% of annual runoff is contributed by tile drainage, while the remainder comes from surface runoff (mainly saturation excess flow and subsurface runoff. It is also found that, at the annual scale nitrogen storage in the soil is depleted during wet years, and is supplemented during dry years. This carryover of nitrogen storage from dry year to wet year is mainly caused by the lateral loading of nitrate. Phosphorus storage, on the other hand, is not affected much by wet/dry conditions simply because the leaching of it is very minor compared to the other mechanisms taking phosphorous out of the basin, such as crop harvest. The analysis then turned to the movement of nitrate with runoff. Model results suggested that nitrate loading from hillslope into the channel is preferentially carried by tile drainage. Once in the stream it is then subject to in-stream denitrification, the significant spatio-temporal variability of which can be related to the variation of the hydrologic and hydraulic conditions across the river network.

  3. A Hybrid of Optical Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modeling Improves Water Balance Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Colin J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wang, Jida

    2018-01-01

    Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally. Remote sensing and water balance modeling are frequently cited as potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on these same in-decline gauge data to make accurate discharge estimates. A different approach is therefore needed, and we here combine remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at-many-stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge over the Lower Nile. Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 87 Landsat images and AMHG (1984-2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the model, all without using gauge data. The resulting tuned modeled hydrograph shows a large improvement in flow magnitude: validation of the tuned monthly hydrograph against a historical gauge (1978-1984) yields an RMSE of 439 m3/s (40.8%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order-of-magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: tuned flows have a 1-2 month wet season lag and a negative base flow bias. Accounting for this 2 month lag yields a hydrograph RMSE of 270 m3/s (25.7%). Thus, our results coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modeling of ungauged flows, especially as developments in cloud computing for remote sensing make our method easily applicable to any basin. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

  4. Inferring Soil Moisture Memory from Streamflow Observations Using a Simple Water Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Koster, Randal Dean; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-01-01

    Soil moisture is known for its integrative behavior and resulting memory characteristics. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for weeks or even months into the future, making initial soil moisture a potentially important contributor to skill in weather forecasting. A major difficulty when investigating soil moisture and its memory using observations is the sparse availability of long-term measurements and their limited spatial representativeness. In contrast, there is an abundance of long-term streamflow measurements for catchments of various sizes across the world. We investigate in this study whether such streamflow measurements can be used to infer and characterize soil moisture memory in respective catchments. Our approach uses a simple water balance model in which evapotranspiration and runoff ratios are expressed as simple functions of soil moisture; optimized functions for the model are determined using streamflow observations, and the optimized model in turn provides information on soil moisture memory on the catchment scale. The validity of the approach is demonstrated with data from three heavily monitored catchments. The approach is then applied to streamflow data in several small catchments across Switzerland to obtain a spatially distributed description of soil moisture memory and to show how memory varies, for example, with altitude and topography.

  5. Comparisons of Satellite Soil Moisture, an Energy Balance Model Driven by LST Data and Point Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Puca, Silvia

    2013-04-01

    Soil moisture plays a fundamental role in the partitioning of mass and energy fluxes between land surface and atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather, and it is important in determining the rainfall-runoff response of catchments; moreover, in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, a correct definition of moisture conditions is a key factor for accurate predictions. Different sources of information for the estimation of the soil moisture state are currently available: satellite data, point measurements and model predictions. All are affected by intrinsic uncertainty. Among different satellite sensors that can be used for soil moisture estimation three major groups can be distinguished: passive microwave sensors (e.g., SSMI), active sensors (e.g. SAR, Scatterometers), and optical sensors (e.g. Spectroradiometers). The last two families, mainly because of their temporal and spatial resolution seem the most suitable for hydrological applications In this work soil moisture point measurements from 10 sensors in the Italian territory are compared of with the satellite products both from the HSAF project SM-OBS-2, derived from the ASCAT scatterometer, and from ACHAB, an operative energy balance model that assimilate LST data derived from MSG and furnishes daily an evaporative fraction index related to soil moisture content for all the Italian region. Distributed comparison of the ACHAB and SM-OBS-2 on the whole Italian territory are performed too.

  6. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  7. Pressure balance inconsistency exhibited in a statistical model of magnetospheric plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, T. W.; Wolf, R. A.; Spiro, R. W.; Thomsen, M. F.; Korth, H.

    2003-08-01

    While quantitative theories of plasma flow from the magnetotail to the inner magnetosphere typically assume adiabatic convection, it has long been understood that these convection models tend to overestimate the plasma pressure in the inner magnetosphere. This phenomenon is called the pressure crisis or the pressure balance inconsistency. In order to analyze it in a new and more detailed manner we utilize an empirical model of the proton and electron distribution functions in the near-Earth plasma sheet (-50 RE attributed to gradient/curvature drift for large isotropic energy invariants but not for small invariants. The tailward gradient of the distribution function indicates a violation of the adiabatic drift condition in the plasma sheet. It also confirms the existence of a "number crisis" in addition to the pressure crisis. In addition, plasma sheet pressure gradients, when crossed with the gradient of flux tube volume computed from the [1989] magnetic field model, indicate Region 1 currents on the dawn and dusk sides of the outer plasma sheet.

  8. Balancing the seen and unseen: Nurse educator as role model for critical thinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Christy; Profetto-McGrath, Joanne; Myrick, Florence; Strean, William B

    2018-05-04

    Critical thinking is an important indicator of student learning and is an essential outcome of baccalaureate nursing education. The role of nurse educators in the development of students' critical thinking has been overlooked despite the importance of their actions to facilitate critical thinking in nursing education. We used a constructivist grounded theory approach within a larger mixed methods triangulation study to explore how nurse educators revealed their critical thinking in practice. From the grounded theory approach, a model emerged from our research, outlining the important aspects of nurse educators' critical thinking and how it is revealed in the clinical setting. The important categories of this model include: a) fostering the student-educator relationship; b) role modeling critical thinking; c) mobilizing and operationalizing resources; as well as d) balancing factors that impact nurse educators' critical thinking. Our findings inform what is known about nurse educators' critical thinking and how it can be implemented in nurse educators' teaching practice. Given our findings, we offer recommendations for future nursing education practice and research, including the need to apply our findings in additional settings and further develop nurse educators' awareness of their own critical thinking. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Material Balance And Reaction Kinetics Modeling For Penex Isomerization Process In Daura Refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamadi Adel Sharif

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Penex Deisohexanizer isomerization of light straight run naphtha is a significant process for petroleum refining and proved to be effective technology to produce gasoline components with a high octane number. Modeling of the chemical kinetic reactions is an important tool because it is a better tool for optimization of the experimental data into parameters used for industrial reactors. The present study deals on the isomerization process in Daura refinery. Material balance calculations were done mathematically on the unit for the kinetics prediction purpose. A kinetic mathematical model was derived for the prediction rate constants K1 and K2 and activation energy Ea at operating temperatures range 120-180°C. According to the model, the results show that with increasing of temperature leads to increased K1 directly, where the K2 values proportional inversely. The activation energy results show that Ea1(nC6

  10. Mathematical modelling of nutrient balance of a goldfish (Carassius auratus Linn. recirculating aquaculture system (GRAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeep Puthravilakom Sadasivan Nair

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, a goldfish (Carassius auratus Linn. recirculating aquaculture system (GRAS has been developed. The GRAS consisted of a culture tank, a screen filter and a foam fractionator for removal of particulate and dissolved solids and a trickling filter for conversion of ammonium- and nitrite-nitrogen to relatively harmless nitrate-nitrogen. The culture of goldfish at a stocking density of 1.08 kg/m3 was continued for a period of two and half months. Based on mass balance analysis of ammonium- and nitrate-nitrogen and assuming the trickling filter to be a plug flow reactor, a model was formulated to determine the necessary recirculation flow rate at different times of culture for maintaining the major nutrients, viz., ammonium- and nitrate-nitrogen below their permissible limits. The model was calibrated and validated using the real time data obtained from the experimental run. The high values of coefficient of determination and low values of root mean square error show the effectiveness of the model.

  11. Comparison of explicit and effective models for calculating ionic populations in argon plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdallah, J. Jr.; Clark, R.E.H.

    1994-01-01

    Calculations have been performed to model the state populations of argon plasmas at electron densities at and above those required for the validity of coronal equilibrium. Both effective and explicit models have been used, and both are based on the same set of atomic cross sections. The effective model includes ground and singly excited states explicitly, while the effect of autoionizing states is accounted for by branching factors which describe their depopulation into the various non-autoionizing states. The explicit model considers both autoionizing and non-autoionizing states explicitly. The effective model requires a significantly reduced amount of computer time and memory. Good agreement between the two models can be obtained through moderate densities if the branching factors include electron density dependent terms which describe the collisional stabilization of each autoionizing state. The effective model breaks down as density is increased because the population of individual autoionizing states become significant. Results for both ionization balance and radiated power loss are presented. (Author)

  12. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  13. Ab initio thermochemistry using optimal-balance models with isodesmic corrections: The ATOMIC protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakowies, Dirk

    2009-04-01

    A theoretical composite approach, termed ATOMIC for Ab initio Thermochemistry using Optimal-balance Models with Isodesmic Corrections, is introduced for the calculation of molecular atomization energies and enthalpies of formation. Care is taken to achieve optimal balance in accuracy and cost between the various components contributing to high-level estimates of the fully correlated energy at the infinite-basis-set limit. To this end, the energy at the coupled-cluster level of theory including single, double, and quasiperturbational triple excitations is decomposed into Hartree-Fock, low-order correlation (MP2, CCSD), and connected-triples contributions and into valence-shell and core contributions. Statistical analyses for 73 representative neutral closed-shell molecules containing hydrogen and at least three first-row atoms (CNOF) are used to devise basis-set and extrapolation requirements for each of the eight components to maintain a given level of accuracy. Pople's concept of bond-separation reactions is implemented in an ab initio framework, providing for a complete set of high-level precomputed isodesmic corrections which can be used for any molecule for which a valence structure can be drawn. Use of these corrections is shown to lower basis-set requirements dramatically for each of the eight components of the composite model. A hierarchy of three levels is suggested for isodesmically corrected composite models which reproduce atomization energies at the reference level of theory to within 0.1 kcal/mol (A), 0.3 kcal/mol (B), and 1 kcal/mol (C). Large-scale statistical analysis shows that corrections beyond the CCSD(T) reference level of theory, including coupled-cluster theory with fully relaxed connected triple and quadruple excitations, first-order relativistic and diagonal Born-Oppenheimer corrections can normally be dealt with using a greatly simplified model that assumes thermoneutral bond-separation reactions and that reduces the estimate of these

  14. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  15. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  16. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  17. Churchill: an ultra-fast, deterministic, highly scalable and balanced parallelization strategy for the discovery of human genetic variation in clinical and population-scale genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Benjamin J; Fitch, James R; Hu, Yangqiu; Corsmeier, Donald J; Zhong, Huachun; Wetzel, Amy N; Nordquist, Russell D; Newsom, David L; White, Peter

    2015-01-20

    While advances in genome sequencing technology make population-scale genomics a possibility, current approaches for analysis of these data rely upon parallelization strategies that have limited scalability, complex implementation and lack reproducibility. Churchill, a balanced regional parallelization strategy, overcomes these challenges, fully automating the multiple steps required to go from raw sequencing reads to variant discovery. Through implementation of novel deterministic parallelization techniques, Churchill allows computationally efficient analysis of a high-depth whole genome sample in less than two hours. The method is highly scalable, enabling full analysis of the 1000 Genomes raw sequence dataset in a week using cloud resources. http://churchill.nchri.org/.

  18. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  19. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  1. Design performances and chemistry program supporting the FA3 /UKEPRTM activity management: experience and modeling balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tigeras, Arancha; Clinard, Marie-Helene; Chahma, Farah; Jolivet, Patrick; Bremnes, Oystein; Bachet, Martin

    2012-09-01

    EPR TM reactor accounts with an evolutionary design that provides the appropriate features to ensure the safety implementation of different chemistry and radiochemistry options. ALARP considerations have been taken into account by EDF-AREVA for making decisions relating to the activity management in the primary circuit of Flamanville 3-EPR TM and UK-EPR TM reactors. The water chemistry and radiochemistry concept implemented in FA3-EPR TM and UK-EPR TM reactors is the result of an exhaustive selection process based on the balance between the theoretical developments, the laboratory tests and the NPP experience concerning the diverse areas associated with: - The source term identification and characterization: The understanding of the origin and behavior of fission products/actinides, corrosion products and activation products constitutes the essential support for the selection of suitable parameters and criteria to monitor the system integrity, the tramp-uranium and radiation build-up and the discharges to the environment. - The source term quantification: The balance between the baseline data from PWR forerunner reactors and the assessments performed by modeling constitutes the major demonstration of the source term accuracy. This approach ensures that activity risks are understood and can be managed with the EPR TM design options. - The EPR TM design options evaluation: The sensitivity analysis results show the influence of the fuel management, the material choice and the chemistry conditioning on several domains such as the activity coolant and the fuel/ex-core crud management. EDF-AREVA demonstrates by means of this process that the design, sizing and chemistry conditioning of EPR TM reactor primary circuit are adapted to guarantee the correct activity management. The methodology developed, based on qualitative and quantitative assessments, intends to propose to the Nuclear Industry several alternatives for evaluating and/or improving the compliance with

  2. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    OpenAIRE

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  3. Fiction and reality in the modelling world - Balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, P.; Madsen, H.

    1999-01-01

    Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable by calibr......Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable...... by calibration/verification on the basis of the data series available, which generates elements of sheer guessing - unless the universality of the model is be based on induction, i.e. experience from the sum of all previous investigations. There is a need to deal more explicitly with uncertainty...

  4. Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2017-12-01

    In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the

  5. Linking Economic Value Added, Direct Costing, and the Lean Thinking to the Balanced Scorecard in a System Dynamics Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Review, July-August, 2007], provide evidence that companies fail to see the possible benefits of combining and integrating several accounting practices into a single framework. Design/methodology/approach - We use a System Dynamics Modelling approach to the BSC-thinking. The BSC model includes the five...... Purpose - To show how three practices normally applied separately can be linked to support the strategy evaluation and the performance measurement in the balanced scorecard. Recent studies, e.g. Kaplan and Norton [Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System, Harvard Business...

  6. Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

  7. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  8. Relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction among employees in China: A moderated mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yue; Wang, Yuchen; Zhang, Jianxin

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have revealed the association between work-family balance and job satisfaction. The present research further explored the underlying mechanism of this association and aimed to provide a moderated mediation model to explain if personality traits moderate the relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction through work engagement. A cross-sectional study was conducted in which 263 employees from a petrochemical enterprise in China completed self-report questionnaires including the Work-Family Balance Scale, the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, the Big Five Inventory-10, and the Job Satisfaction Scale. Hierarchical regression analysis and structural equation modeling showed that work engagement partially mediated the relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction, and the indirect effect was further moderated only by extraversion. Therefore, an integrative moderated mediation model was proposed wherein work-family balance boosts job satisfaction by first enhancing employees' work engagement, while the indirect effect was in turn moderated by extraversion. The results suggest that interventions for improving job satisfaction may be enhanced by targeting work engagement, especially for employees with higher extraversion. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  9. Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Helsen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs. In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS. Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

  10. Flux balance modeling to predict bacterial survival during pulsed-activity events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jose, Nicholas A.; Lau, Rebecca; Swenson, Tami L.; Klitgord, Niels; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Bowen, Benjamin P.; Baran, Richard; Northen, Trent R.

    2018-04-01

    Desert biological soil crusts (BSCs) are cyanobacteria-dominated surface soil microbial communities common to plant interspaces in arid environments. The capability to significantly dampen their metabolism allows them to exist for extended periods in a desiccated dormant state that is highly robust to environmental stresses. However, within minutes of wetting, metabolic functions reboot, maximizing activity during infrequent permissive periods. Microcoleus vaginatus, a primary producer within the crust ecosystem and an early colonizer, initiates crust formation by binding particles in the upper layer of soil via exopolysaccharides, making microbial dominated biological soil crusts highly dependent on the viability of this organism. Previous studies have suggested that biopolymers play a central role in the survival of this organism by powering resuscitation, rapidly forming compatible solutes, and fueling metabolic activity in dark, hydrated conditions. To elucidate the mechanism of this phenomenon and provide a basis for future modeling of BSCs, we developed a manually curated, genome-scale metabolic model of Microcoleus vaginatus (iNJ1153). To validate this model, gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS) and liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS) were used to characterize the rate of biopolymer accumulation and depletion in in hydrated Microcoleus vaginatus under light and dark conditions. Constraint-based flux balance analysis showed agreement between model predictions and experimental reaction fluxes. A significant amount of consumed carbon and light energy is invested into storage molecules glycogen and polyphosphate, while β-polyhydroxybutyrate may function as a secondary resource. Pseudo-steady-state modeling suggests that glycogen, the primary carbon source with the fastest depletion rate, will be exhausted if M. vaginatus experiences dark wetting events 4 times longer than light wetting events.

  11. Evaluating infant core temperature response in a hot car using a heat balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew J; Duzinski, Sarah V; Dolinak, David; Null, Jan; Iyer, Sujit S

    2015-03-01

    Using a 1-year old male infant as the model subject, the objectives of this study were to measure increased body temperature of an infant inside an enclosed vehicle during the work day (8:00 am-4:00 pm) during four seasons and model the time to un-compensable heating, heat stroke [>40 °C (>104 °F)], and critical thermal maximum [>42 °C (>107.6 °F)]. A human heat balance model was used to simulate a child's physiological response to extreme heat exposure within an enclosed vehicle. Environmental variables were obtained from the nearest National Weather Service automated surface observing weather station and from an observational vehicular temperature study conducted in Austin, Texas in 2012. In all four seasons, despite differences in starting temperature and solar radiation, the model infant reached heat stroke and demise before 2:00 pm. Time to heat stroke and demise occurred most rapidly in summer, at intermediate durations in fall and spring, and most slowly in the winter. In August, the model infant reached un-compensable heat within 20 min, heat stroke within 105 min, and demise within 125 min. The average rate of heating from un-compensable heat to heat stroke was 1.7 °C/h (3.0 °F/h) and from heat stroke to demise was 4.8 °C/h (8.5 °F/h). Infants left in vehicles during the workday can reach hazardous thermal thresholds quickly even with mild environmental temperatures. These results provide a seasonal analogue of infant heat stroke time course. Further effort is required to create a universally available forensic tool to predict vehicular hyperthermia time course to demise.

  12. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  13. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  14. The application of mass and energy conservation laws in physiologically structured population models of heterotrophic organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooijman; Kooi; Hallam

    1999-04-07

    Rules for energy uptake, and subsequent utilization, form the basis of population dynamics and, therefore, explain the dynamics of the ecosystem structure in terms of changes in standing crops and size distributions of individuals. Mass fluxes are concomitant with energy flows and delineate functional aspects of ecosystems by defining the roles of individuals and populations. The assumption of homeostasis of body components, and an assumption about the general structure of energy budgets, imply that mass fluxes can be written as weighted sums of three organizing energy fluxes with the weight coefficients determined by the conservation law of mass. These energy fluxes are assimilation, maintenance and growth, and provide a theoretical underpinning of the widely applied empirical method of indirect calorimetry, which relates dissipating heat linearly to three mass fluxes: carbon dioxide production, oxygen consumption and N-waste production. A generic approach to the stoichiometry of population energetics from the perspective of the individual organism is proposed and illustrated for heterotrophic organisms. This approach indicates that mass transformations can be identified by accounting for maintenance requirements and overhead costs for the various metabolic processes at the population level. The theoretical background for coupling the dynamics of the structure of communities to nutrient cycles, including the water balance, as well as explicit expressions for the dissipating heat at the population level are obtained based on the conservation law of energy. Specifications of the general theory employ the Dynamic Energy Budget model for individuals. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  15. Analysis of confidence in continental-scale groundwater recharge estimates for Africa using a distributed water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Jonathan; Mansour, Majdi; Bonsor, Helen; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; MacDonald, Alan; Macdonald, David; Bloomfield, John

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing need for improved access to reliable water in Africa as population and food production increases. Currently approximately 300 million people do not have access to a secure source of safe drinking water. To meet these current and future demands, groundwater will need to be increasingly abstracted; groundwater is more reliable than surface water sources due to its relatively long response time to meteorological stresses and therefore is likely to be a more secure water resource in a more variable climate. Recent studies also quantified the volumes of groundwater potentially available which suggest that, if exploited, groundwater could help to meet the demand for fresh water. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how these resources may respond in the future due to changes in groundwater recharge and abstraction. Understanding and quantifying groundwater recharge is vital as it forms a primary indicator of the sustainability of underlying groundwater resources. Computational hydrological models provide a means to do this, but the complexity of recharge processes in Africa mean that these simulations are often highly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate our confidence in simulating groundwater recharge over Africa based on a sensitivity analysis using a distributed hydrological model developed by the British Geological Survey, ZOODRM. The model includes land surface, canopy, river, soil and groundwater components. Each component is able to exchange water and as such, forms a distributed water balance of Africa. The components have been parameterised using available spatial datasets of African vegetation, land-use, soil and hydrogeology while the remaining parameters have been estimated by calibrating the model to available river flow data. Continental-scale gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets, based on remotely sensed and ground observations, have been used to force the model. Following calibration, the

  16. Development of a Mathematical Model for Multivariate Process by Balanced Six Sigma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Díaz-Castellanos Elizabeth Eugenia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Six Sigma methodology is widely used in business to improve quality, increase productivity and lower costs, impacting on business improvement. However, today the challenge is to use those tools for improvements that will have a direct impact on the differentiation of value, which requires the alignment of Six Sigma with the competitive strategies of the organization.Hence the importance of a strategic management system to measure, analyze, improve and control corporate performance, while setting out responsibilities of leadership and commitment. The specific purpose of this research is to provide a mathematical model through the alignment of strategic objectives (Balanced Scorecard and tools for productivity improvement (Six Sigma for processes with multiple answers, which is sufficiently robust so that it can serve as basis for application in manufacturing and thus effectively link strategy performance and customer satisfaction. Specifically we worked with a case study: Córdoba, Ver. The model proposes that is the strategy, performance and customer satisfaction are aligned, the organization will benefit from the intense relationship between process performance and strategic initiatives. These changes can be measured by productivity and process metrics such as cycle time, production rates, production efficiency and percentage of reprocessing, among others.

  17. Multi-objective optimization algorithms for mixed model assembly line balancing problem with parallel workstations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Rabbani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with mixed model assembly line (MMAL balancing problem of type-I. In MMALs several products are made on an assembly line while the similarity of these products is so high. As a result, it is possible to assemble several types of products simultaneously without any additional setup times. The problem has some particular features such as parallel workstations and precedence constraints in dynamic periods in which each period also effects on its next period. The research intends to reduce the number of workstations and maximize the workload smoothness between workstations. Dynamic periods are used to determine all variables in different periods to achieve efficient solutions. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO are used to solve the problem. The proposed model is validated with GAMS software for small size problem and the performance of the foregoing algorithms is compared with each other based on some comparison metrics. The NSGA-II outperforms MOPSO with respect to some comparison metrics used in this paper, but in other metrics MOPSO is better than NSGA-II. Finally, conclusion and future research is provided.

  18. Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

    2016-01-01

    We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.

  19. Role Balance and Marital Satisfaction in Taiwanese Couples: An Actor-Partner Interdependence Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lung Hung; Li, Tsui-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Role balance theory proposed that a well-organized self-system, rather than a salient hierarchy role, contributes to individual psychological well-being. However, research on role balance focuses only on the intrapersonal process without regard for the interpersonal process on the spouse's well-being. Furthermore, previous studies were all…

  20. Balancing Model Performance and Simplicity to Predict Postoperative Primary Care Blood Pressure Elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Brandt, Cynthia A; Burg, Matthew M

    2015-09-01

    Because of uncertainty regarding the reliability of perioperative blood pressures and traditional notions downplaying the role of anesthesiologists in longitudinal patient care, there is no consensus for anesthesiologists to recommend postoperative primary care blood pressure follow-up for patients presenting for surgery with an increased blood pressure. The decision of whom to refer should ideally be based on a predictive model that balances performance with ease-of-use. If an acceptable decision rule was developed, a new practice paradigm integrating the surgical encounter into broader public health efforts could be tested, with the goal of reducing long-term morbidity from hypertension among surgical patients. Using national data from US veterans receiving surgical care, we determined the prevalence of poorly controlled outpatient clinic blood pressures ≥140/90 mm Hg, based on the mean of up to 4 readings in the year after surgery. Four increasingly complex logistic regression models were assessed to predict this outcome. The first included the mean of 2 preoperative blood pressure readings; other models progressively added a broad array of demographic and clinical data. After internal validation, the C-statistics and the Net Reclassification Index between the simplest and most complex models were assessed. The performance characteristics of several simple blood pressure referral thresholds were then calculated. Among 215,621 patients, poorly controlled outpatient clinic blood pressure was present postoperatively in 25.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5%-25.9%) including 14.2% (95% CI, 13.9%-14.6%) of patients lacking a hypertension history. The most complex prediction model demonstrated statistically significant, but clinically marginal, improvement in discrimination over a model based on preoperative blood pressure alone (C-statistic, 0.736 [95% CI, 0.734-0.739] vs 0.721 [95% CI, 0.718-0.723]; P for difference 1 of 4 patients (95% CI, 25