WorldWideScience

Sample records for population balance modelling

  1. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  2. Improved population balance model for straining-dominant deep bed filtration using network calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuan, Hao; You, Zhenjiang; Shapiro, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Colloidal-suspension flow in porous media is modelled simultaneously by the large scale population balance equations and by the microscale network model. The phenomenological parameter of the correlation length in the population balance model is determined from the network modelling. It is found...... out that the correlation length in the population balance model depends on the particle size. This dependency calculated by two-dimensional network has the same tendency as that obtained from the laboratory tests in engineered porous media....

  3. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  4. Discrete bivariate population balance modelling of heteroaggregation processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollié, Sascha; Briesen, Heiko; Sundmacher, Kai

    2009-08-15

    Heteroaggregation in binary particle mixtures was simulated with a discrete population balance model in terms of two internal coordinates describing the particle properties. The considered particle species are of different size and zeta-potential. Property space is reduced with a semi-heuristic approach to enable an efficient solution. Aggregation rates are based on deterministic models for Brownian motion and stability, under consideration of DLVO interaction potentials. A charge-balance kernel is presented, relating the electrostatic surface potential to the property space by a simple charge balance. Parameter sensitivity with respect to the fractal dimension, aggregate size, hydrodynamic correction, ionic strength and absolute particle concentration was assessed. Results were compared to simulations with the literature kernel based on geometric coverage effects for clusters with heterogeneous surface properties. In both cases electrostatic phenomena, which dominate the aggregation process, show identical trends: impeded cluster-cluster aggregation at low particle mixing ratio (1:1), restabilisation at high mixing ratios (100:1) and formation of complex clusters for intermediate ratios (10:1). The particle mixing ratio controls the surface coverage extent of the larger particle species. Simulation results are compared to experimental flow cytometric data and show very satisfactory agreement.

  5. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  6. Application of Gaussian cubature to model two-dimensional population balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bałdyga Jerzy

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In many systems of engineering interest the moment transformation of population balance is applied. One of the methods to solve the transformed population balance equations is the quadrature method of moments. It is based on the approximation of the density function in the source term by the Gaussian quadrature so that it preserves the moments of the original distribution. In this work we propose another method to be applied to the multivariate population problem in chemical engineering, namely a Gaussian cubature (GC technique that applies linear programming for the approximation of the multivariate distribution. Examples of the application of the Gaussian cubature (GC are presented for four processes typical for chemical engineering applications. The first and second ones are devoted to crystallization modeling with direction-dependent two-dimensional and three-dimensional growth rates, the third one represents drop dispersion accompanied by mass transfer in liquid-liquid dispersions and finally the fourth case regards the aggregation and sintering of particle populations.

  7. Eulerian Multiphase Population Balance Model of Atomizing, Swirling Flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayana P. Rayapati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An Eulerian/Eulerian multiphase flow model coupled with a population balance model is used as the basis for numerical simulation of atomization in swirling flows. The objective of this exercise is to develop a methodology capable of predicting the local point-wise drop size distribution in a spray, such as would be measured by the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDA. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of particle size distributions in an air-blast atomizer spray to demonstrate good qualitative and quantitative agreement. It is observed that the dependence of velocity on drop size inherent in a multiphase description of the drop cloud appears necessary to capture some features of the experimental data. Using this model, we demonstrate the relative contributions of secondary atomization and transport to the variation observed in the downstream spray drop size distribution.

  8. Reduction of a single granule drying model: An essential step in preparation of a population balance model with a continuous growth term

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Daele, Timothy, Van; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2013-01-01

    in the reduced model. Simulations of the complex drying model were, in a next phase, used to develop the reduced model, which describes the decrease of the moisture content in function of the gas temperature. The developed reduced model was then included in a Population Balance Equation (PBE) to describe......The development of a Population Balance Model (PBM) for a pharmaceutical granule drying process requires a continuous growth term; the latter actually represents the drying process as the moisture content is the internal coordinate of the PBM. To establish such a PBM, a complex drying model...

  9. The prediction of the cavitation phenomena including population balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannari, Rachid; Hliwa, Ghizlane Zineb; Bannari, Abdelfettah; Belghiti, Mly Taib

    2017-07-01

    Cavitation is the principal reason behind the behavior's modification of the hydraulic turbines. However, the experimental observations can not be appropriate to all cases due to the limitations in the measurement techniques. The mathematical models which have been implemented, use the mixture multiphase frame. As well as, most of the published work is limited by considering a constant bubble size distribution. However, this assumption is not realist. The aim of this article is the implementation and the use of a non-homogeneous multiphase model which solve two phases transport equation. The evolution of bubble size is considered by the population balance equation. This study is based on the eulerian-eulerian model, associated to the cavitation model. All the inter-phase forces such as drag, lift and virtual mass are used.

  10. Multiphase flow analysis using population balance modeling bubbles, drops and particles

    CERN Document Server

    Yeoh, Guan Heng; Tu, Jiyuan

    2013-01-01

    Written by leading multiphase flow and CFD experts, this book enables engineers and researchers to understand the use of PBM and CFD frameworks. Population balance approaches can now be used in conjunction with CFD, effectively driving more efficient and effective multiphase flow processes. Engineers familiar with standard CFD software, including ANSYS-CFX and ANSYS-Fluent, will be able to use the tools and approaches presented in this book in the effective research, modeling and control of multiphase flow problems. Builds a complete understanding of the theory behind the

  11. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time

  12. Numerical study of a stochastic particle algorithm solving a multidimensional population balance model for high shear granulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braumann, Andreas; Kraft, Markus; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    This paper is concerned with computational aspects of a multidimensional population balance model of a wet granulation process. Wet granulation is a manufacturing method to form composite particles, granules, from small particles and binders. A detailed numerical study of a stochastic particle algorithm for the solution of a five-dimensional population balance model for wet granulation is presented. Each particle consists of two types of solids (containing pores) and of external and internal liquid (located in the pores). Several transformations of particles are considered, including coalescence, compaction and breakage. A convergence study is performed with respect to the parameter that determines the number of numerical particles. Averaged properties of the system are computed. In addition, the ensemble is subdivided into practically relevant size classes and analysed with respect to the amount of mass and the particle porosity in each class. These results illustrate the importance of the multidimensional approach. Finally, the kinetic equation corresponding to the stochastic model is discussed.

  13. Development of a Population Balance Model of a pharmaceutical drying process and testing of solution methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Gernaey, Krist; De Beer, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Drying is frequently used in the production of pharmaceutical tablets. Simulation-based control strategy development for such a drying process requires a detailed model. First, the drying of wet granules is modelled using a Population Balance Model. A growth term based on a reduced model was used......, which describes the decrease of the moisture content, to follow the moisture content distribution for a batch of granules. Secondly, different solution methods for solving the PBM are compared. The effect of grid size (discretization methods) is analyzed in terms of accuracy and calculation time. All...

  14. Linking dissolution to disintegration in immediate release tablets using image analysis and a population balance modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David; Wren, Stephen; Reynolds, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    In order to achieve an improved understanding of disintegration and dissolution phenomena for an immediate release tablet formulation, a technique to monitor the number and size of particles entrained within the dissolution media was developed in combination with a population balancing model. Tablets were first characterized for crushing force, disintegration time and dissolution performance using standard USP methodologies. The performance of the tablets was then assessed using a new measurement system which links a "QicPic" particle imaging device to a USP dissolution vessel. This system enables us to measure the number and size of particles generated during tablet dissolution. The population balance mathematical model allowed a tablet erosion rate to be manipulated to fit the experimental data. Results showed that tablets with differing crushing forces showed different dissolution behaviors that could be explained by differing rates of particle release into the dissolution media. These behaviors were then successfully modeled to provide a description of the dissolution and disintegration behavior of the tablets in terms of a tablet erosion rate. A new approach was developed that allowed the description of the dissolution behaviors of the tablets in terms of the rate that they release particles into solution. This was then successfully modeled in terms of a tablet erosion rate.

  15. Discrete population balance models of random agglomeration and cleavage in polymer pyrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. J. Staggs

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The processes of random agglomeration and cleavage (both of which are important for the development of new models of polymer combustion, but are also applicable in a wide range of fields including atmospheric physics, radiation modelling and astrophysics are analysed using population balance methods. The evolution of a discrete distribution of particles is considered within this framework, resulting in a set of ordinary differential equations for the individual particle concentrations. Exact solutions for these equations are derived, together with moment generating functions. Application of the discrete Laplace transform (analogous to the Z-transform is found to be effective in these problems, providing both exact solutions for particle concentrations and moment generating functions. The combined agglomeration-cleavage problem is also considered. Unfortunately, it has been impossible to find an exact solution for the full problem, but a stable steady state has been identified and computed.

  16. An improved particle population balance equation in the continuum-slip regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Mingliang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved moment model is proposed to solve the population balance equation for Brownian coagulation in the continuum-slip regime, and it reduces to a known one in open literature when the non-linear terms in the slip correction factor are ignored. The present model shows same asymptotic behavior as that in the continuum regime.

  17. A Balanced Portfolio Model For Improving Health: Concept And Vermont's Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, James

    2018-04-01

    A successful strategy for improving population health requires acting in several sectors by implementing a portfolio of interventions. The mix of interventions should be both tailored to meet the community's needs and balanced in several dimensions-for example, time frame, level of risk, and target population. One obstacle is finding sustainable financing for both the interventions and the community infrastructure needed. This article first summarizes Vermont's experience as a laboratory for health reform. It then presents a conceptual model for a community-based population health strategy, using a balanced portfolio and diversified funding approaches. The article then reviews Vermont's population health initiative, including an example of a balanced portfolio and lessons learned from the state's experience.

  18. Modelling soot formation from wall films in a gasoline direct injection engine using a detailed population balance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Buyu; Mosbach, Sebastian; Schmutzhard, Sebastian; Shuai, Shijin; Huang, Yaqing; Kraft, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Soot formation from a wall film in a GDI engine is simulated. • Spray impingement and wall film evaporation models are added to SRM Engine Suite. • Soot is modelled using a highly detailed population balance model. • Particle size distributions are measured experimentally. • Evolution of wall region is shown in equivalence ratio-temperature diagrams. - Abstract: In this study, soot formation in a Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) engine is simulated using a Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM Engine Suite) which contains a detailed population balance soot model capable of describing particle morphology and chemical composition. In order to describe the soot formation originating from the wall film, the SRM Engine Suite is extended to include spray impingement and wall film evaporation models. The cylinder is divided into a wall and a bulk zone to resolve the equivalence ratio and temperature distributions of the mixture near the wall. The combustion chamber wall is assumed to exchange heat directly only with the wall zone. The turbulent mixing within each zone and between the two zones are simulated with different mixing models. The effects of key parameters on the temperature and equivalence ratio in the two zones are investigated. The mixing rate between the wall and bulk zone has a significant effect on the wall zone, whilst the mixing rate in the wall zone only has a negligible impact on the temperature and equivalence ratio below a certain threshold. Experimental data are obtained from a four-cylinder, gasoline-fuelled direct injection spark ignition engine operated stoichiometrically. An injection timing sweep, ranging from 120 CAD BTDC to 330 CAD BTDC, is conducted in order to investigate the effect of spray impingement on soot formation. The earliest injection case (330 CAD BTDC), which produces significantly higher levels of particle emissions than any other case, is simulated by the current model. It is found that the in-cylinder pressure

  19. A Novel Approach to Population Balance Modeling of Reactive Polymer Modification Leading to Branching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kryven, I.; Iedema, P.D.

    2013-01-01

    The mathematical treatment of polymer modification systems, described by population balances containing convolution is discussed. The two-dimensional case (molecular weight vs. number of branch points) was considered by utilizing approximations of distributions, expanding them in terms of Gaussian

  20. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  1. Time-dependent ionization balance model for non-LTE plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.T.; Zimmerman, G.B.; Bailey, D.S.; Dickson, D.; Kim, D.

    1986-01-01

    We have developed a detailed configuration-accounting kinetic model for calculating time-dependent ionization-balance and ion-level populations in non-local thermal-equilibrium (non-LTE) plasmas. We use these population estimates in computing spectral line intensities, line ratios, and synthetic spectra, and in fitting these calculated values to experimental measurements. The model is also used to design laboratory x-ray laser experiments. For this purpose, it is self-consistently coupled to the hydrodynamics code LASNEX. 20 refs., 14 figs

  2. Modeling of microalgal shear-induced flocculation and sedimentation using a coupled CFD-population balance approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golzarijalal, Mohammad; Zokaee Ashtiani, Farzin; Dabir, Bahram

    2018-01-01

    In this study, shear-induced flocculation modeling of Chlorella sp. microalgae was conducted by combination of population balance modeling and CFD. The inhomogeneous Multiple Size Group (MUSIG) and the Euler-Euler two fluid models were coupled via Ansys-CFX-15 software package to achieve both fluid and particle dynamics during the flocculation. For the first time, a detailed model was proposed to calculate the collision frequency and breakage rate during the microalgae flocculation by means of the response surface methodology as a tool for optimization. The particle size distribution resulted from the model was in good agreement with that of the jar test experiment. Furthermore, the subsequent sedimentation step was also examined by removing the shear rate in both simulations and experiments. Consequently, variation in the shear rate and its effects on the flocculation behavior, sedimentation rate and recovery efficiency were evaluated. Results indicate that flocculation of Chlorella sp. microalgae under shear rates of 37, 182, and 387 s -1 is a promising method of pre-concentration which guarantees the cost efficiency of the subsequent harvesting process by recovering more than 90% of the biomass. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:160-174, 2018. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  3. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  4. A population balance equation model of aggregation dynamics in Taxus suspension cell cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolewe, Martin E; Roberts, Susan C; Henson, Michael A

    2012-02-01

    The nature of plant cells to grow as multicellular aggregates in suspension culture has profound effects on bioprocess performance. Recent advances in the measurement of plant cell aggregate size allow for routine process monitoring of this property. We have exploited this capability to develop a conceptual model to describe changes in the aggregate size distribution that are observed over the course of a Taxus cell suspension batch culture. We utilized the population balance equation framework to describe plant cell aggregates as a particulate system, accounting for the relevant phenomenological processes underlying aggregation, such as growth and breakage. We compared model predictions to experimental data to select appropriate kernel functions, and found that larger aggregates had a higher breakage rate, biomass was partitioned asymmetrically following a breakage event, and aggregates grew exponentially. Our model was then validated against several datasets with different initial aggregate size distributions and was able to quantitatively predict changes in total biomass and mean aggregate size, as well as actual size distributions. We proposed a breakage mechanism where a fraction of biomass was lost upon each breakage event, and demonstrated that even though smaller aggregates have been shown to produce more paclitaxel, an optimum breakage rate was predicted for maximum paclitaxel accumulation. We believe this is the first model to use a segregated, corpuscular approach to describe changes in the size distribution of plant cell aggregates, and represents an important first step in the design of rational strategies to control aggregation and optimize process performance. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Analytical solution of population balance equation involving ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an effective analytical simulation to solve population balance equation (PBE), involving particulate aggregation and breakage, by making use ... The domain part of the email address of all email addresses used by the office of Indian Academy of Sciences, including those of the staff, the journals, various ...

  6. Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

    2013-02-01

    In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

  7. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  8. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kok Foong [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang [Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore, 637459 (Singapore)

    2015-12-15

    Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  9. A novel quantitative model of cell cycle progression based on cyclin-dependent kinases activity and population balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisu, Massimo; Concas, Alessandro; Cao, Giacomo

    2015-04-01

    Cell cycle regulates proliferative cell capacity under normal or pathologic conditions, and in general it governs all in vivo/in vitro cell growth and proliferation processes. Mathematical simulation by means of reliable and predictive models represents an important tool to interpret experiment results, to facilitate the definition of the optimal operating conditions for in vitro cultivation, or to predict the effect of a specific drug in normal/pathologic mammalian cells. Along these lines, a novel model of cell cycle progression is proposed in this work. Specifically, it is based on a population balance (PB) approach that allows one to quantitatively describe cell cycle progression through the different phases experienced by each cell of the entire population during its own life. The transition between two consecutive cell cycle phases is simulated by taking advantage of the biochemical kinetic model developed by Gérard and Goldbeter (2009) which involves cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) whose regulation is achieved through a variety of mechanisms that include association with cyclins and protein inhibitors, phosphorylation-dephosphorylation, and cyclin synthesis or degradation. This biochemical model properly describes the entire cell cycle of mammalian cells by maintaining a sufficient level of detail useful to identify check point for transition and to estimate phase duration required by PB. Specific examples are discussed to illustrate the ability of the proposed model to simulate the effect of drugs for in vitro trials of interest in oncology, regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Computational fluid dynamics and population balance modelling of nucleate boiling of cryogenic liquids: Theoretical developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guan Heng Yeoh

    2016-12-01

    interfacial mass, momentum and energy exchange terms that appear in the transport equations generally require the determination of the Sauter mean diameter or interfacial area concentration, which strongly governs the fluid flow and heat transfer in the bulk liquid. In order to accommodate the dynamically changing bubble sizes that are prevalent in the bulk liquid, the mechanistic approach based on the population balance model allows the appropriate prediction of local distributions of Sauter mean diameter or interfacial area concentration, which in turn can improve the predictions of the interfacial mass, momentum and energy exchanges that occur across the interface between the phases. Need for further developments are discussed.

  11. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  12. Balanced cross-rate model for saturated molecular fluorescence in flames using a nanosecond pulse length laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucht, R.P.; Sweeney, D.W.; Laurendeau, N.M.

    1980-01-01

    The balanced cross-rate model is proposed to analyze laser-induced molecular fluorescence signals when the laser pulse length is of the order of nanoseconds. Nanosecond pulse length lasers. specifically Q-switched Nd:YAG-pumped dye lasers, are attractive for saturated molecular fluorescence spectroscopy because of their high peak power and because of their short pulse length minimizes the risk of laser-induced chemistry. In the balanced cross-rate model, single upper and lower rotational levels are assumed to be directly coupled by the laser radiation. Because the laser-induced processes which couple these levels are so fast at saturation intensities, a steady state is established between the two levels within picoseconds. Provided that the total population of the two laser-coupled rotational levels is constant during the laser pulse, the total molecular population can be calculated from the observed upper rotational level population using a two-level saturation model and Boltzmann statistics. Numerical simulation of the laser excitation dynamics of OH in an atmospheric pressure H 2 /O 2 /N 2 flame indicates that the balanced cross-rate model will give accurate results provided that the rotational relaxation rates in the upper and lower sets of rotational levels are approximately equal

  13. A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between

  14. Interlinked population balance and cybernetic models for the simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of natural polymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yong Kuen; Doshi, Pankaj; Yeoh, Hak Koon; Ngoh, Gek Cheng

    2015-10-01

    Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) is a process where microbes have to first excrete extracellular enzymes to break polymeric substrates such as starch or cellulose into edible nutrients, followed by in situ conversion of those nutrients into more valuable metabolites via fermentation. As such, SSF is very attractive as a one-pot synthesis method of biological products. However, due to the co-existence of multiple biochemical steps, modeling SSF faces two major challenges. The first is to capture the successive chain-end and/or random scission of the polymeric substrates over time, which determines the rate of generation of various fermentable substrates. The second is to incorporate the response of microbes, including their preferential substrate utilization, to such a complex broth. Each of the above-mentioned challenges has manifested itself in many related areas, and has been competently but separately attacked with two diametrically different tools, i.e., the Population Balance Modeling (PBM) and the Cybernetic Modeling (CM), respectively. To date, they have yet to be applied in unison on SSF resulting in a general inadequacy or haphazard approaches to examine the dynamics and interactions of depolymerization and fermentation. To overcome this unsatisfactory state of affairs, here, the general linkage between PBM and CM is established to model SSF. A notable feature is the flexible linkage, which allows the individual PBM and CM models to be independently modified to the desired levels of detail. A more general treatment of the secretion of extracellular enzyme is also proposed in the CM model. Through a case study on the growth of a recombinant Saccharomyces cerevisiae capable of excreting a chain-end scission enzyme (glucoamylase) on starch, the interlinked model calibrated using data from the literature (Nakamura et al., Biotechnol. Bioeng. 53:21-25, 1997), captured features not attainable by existing approaches. In particular, the effect

  15. Mathematical model and metaheuristics for simultaneous balancing and sequencing of a robotic mixed-model assembly line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zixiang; Janardhanan, Mukund Nilakantan; Tang, Qiuhua; Nielsen, Peter

    2018-05-01

    This article presents the first method to simultaneously balance and sequence robotic mixed-model assembly lines (RMALB/S), which involves three sub-problems: task assignment, model sequencing and robot allocation. A new mixed-integer programming model is developed to minimize makespan and, using CPLEX solver, small-size problems are solved for optimality. Two metaheuristics, the restarted simulated annealing algorithm and co-evolutionary algorithm, are developed and improved to address this NP-hard problem. The restarted simulated annealing method replaces the current temperature with a new temperature to restart the search process. The co-evolutionary method uses a restart mechanism to generate a new population by modifying several vectors simultaneously. The proposed algorithms are tested on a set of benchmark problems and compared with five other high-performing metaheuristics. The proposed algorithms outperform their original editions and the benchmarked methods. The proposed algorithms are able to solve the balancing and sequencing problem of a robotic mixed-model assembly line effectively and efficiently.

  16. Busy yet socially engaged: volunteering, work-life balance, and health in the working population.

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Romualdo; Brauchli Rebecca; Bauer Georg; Wehner Theo; Hämmig Oliver

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To understand the relationship between volunteering and health in the overlooked yet highly engaged working population, adopting a contextualizing balance approach. We hypothesize that volunteering may function as a psychosocial resource, contributing to work-life balance and, ultimately, health. METHODS A total of 746 Swiss workers participated in an online survey; 35% (N = 264) were additionally volunteers in a nonprofit organization. We assessed volunteering, work-life balance...

  17. Efficient simulation of gas-liquid pipe flows using a generalized population balance equation coupled with the algebraic slip model

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo; Ronco, Gianni; Marchisio, Daniele Luca; Labois, Mathieu

    2014-01-01

    The inhomogeneous generalized population balance equation, which is discretized with the direct quadrature method of moment (DQMOM), is solved to predict the bubble size distribution (BSD) in a vertical pipe flow. The proposed model is compared with a more classical approach where bubbles are characterized with a constant mean size. The turbulent two-phase flow field, which is modeled using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equation approach, is assumed to be in local equilibrium, thus the relative gas and liquid (slip) velocities can be calculated with the algebraic slip model, thereby accounting for the drag, lift, and lubrication forces. The complex relationship between the bubble size distribution and the resulting forces is described accurately by the DQMOM. Each quadrature node and weight represents a class of bubbles with characteristic size and number density, which change dynamically in time and space to preserve the first moments of the BSD. The predictions obtained are validated against previously published experimental data, thereby demonstrating the advantages of this approach for large-scale systems as well as suggesting future extensions to long piping systems and more complex geometries. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  18. Efficient simulation of gas-liquid pipe flows using a generalized population balance equation coupled with the algebraic slip model

    KAUST Repository

    Icardi, Matteo

    2014-09-01

    The inhomogeneous generalized population balance equation, which is discretized with the direct quadrature method of moment (DQMOM), is solved to predict the bubble size distribution (BSD) in a vertical pipe flow. The proposed model is compared with a more classical approach where bubbles are characterized with a constant mean size. The turbulent two-phase flow field, which is modeled using a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equation approach, is assumed to be in local equilibrium, thus the relative gas and liquid (slip) velocities can be calculated with the algebraic slip model, thereby accounting for the drag, lift, and lubrication forces. The complex relationship between the bubble size distribution and the resulting forces is described accurately by the DQMOM. Each quadrature node and weight represents a class of bubbles with characteristic size and number density, which change dynamically in time and space to preserve the first moments of the BSD. The predictions obtained are validated against previously published experimental data, thereby demonstrating the advantages of this approach for large-scale systems as well as suggesting future extensions to long piping systems and more complex geometries. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  19. Two-compartmental population balance modeling of a pulsed spray fluidized bed granulation based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huolong; Li, Mingzhong

    2014-11-20

    In this work a two-compartmental population balance model (TCPBM) was proposed to model a pulsed top-spray fluidized bed granulation. The proposed TCPBM considered the spatially heterogeneous granulation mechanisms of the granule growth by dividing the granulator into two perfectly mixed zones of the wetting compartment and drying compartment, in which the aggregation mechanism was assumed in the wetting compartment and the breakage mechanism was considered in the drying compartment. The sizes of the wetting and drying compartments were constant in the TCPBM, in which 30% of the bed was the wetting compartment and 70% of the bed was the drying compartment. The exchange rate of particles between the wetting and drying compartments was determined by the details of the flow properties and distribution of particles predicted by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The experimental validation has shown that the proposed TCPBM can predict evolution of the granule size and distribution within the granulator under different binder spray operating conditions accurately. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Geochemical mole-balance modeling with uncertain data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkhurst, David L.

    1997-01-01

    Geochemical mole-balance models are sets of chemical reactions that quantitatively account for changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of water along a flow path. A revised mole-balance formulation that includes an uncertainty term for each chemical and isotopic datum is derived. The revised formulation is comprised of mole-balance equations for each element or element redox state, alkalinity, electrons, solvent water, and each isotope; a charge-balance equation and an equation that relates the uncertainty terms for pH, alkalinity, and total dissolved inorganic carbon for each aqueous solution; inequality constraints on the size of the uncertainty terms; and inequality constraints on the sign of the mole transfer of reactants. The equations and inequality constraints are solved by a modification of the simplex algorithm combined with an exhaustive search for unique combinations of aqueous solutions and reactants for which the equations and inequality constraints can be solved and the uncertainty terms minimized. Additional algorithms find only the simplest mole-balance models and determine the ranges of mixing fractions for each solution and mole transfers for each reactant that are consistent with specified limits on the uncertainty terms. The revised formulation produces simpler and more robust mole-balance models and allows the significance of mixing fractions and mole transfers to be evaluated. In an example from the central Oklahoma aquifer, inclusion of up to 5% uncertainty in the chemical data can reduce the number of reactants in mole-balance models from seven or more to as few as three, these being cation exchange, dolomite dissolution, and silica precipitation. In another example from the Madison aquifer, inclusion of the charge-balance constraint requires significant increases in the mole transfers of calcite, dolomite, and organic matter, which reduce the estimated maximum carbon 14 age of the sample by about 10,000 years, from 22,700 years to

  1. The water balance questionnaire: design, reliability and validity of a questionnaire to evaluate water balance in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, Olga; Bountziouka, Vassiliki; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Zampelas, Antonis; Kapsokefalou, Maria

    2012-03-01

    There is a need to develop a questionnaire as a research tool for the evaluation of water balance in the general population. The water balance questionnaire (WBQ) was designed to evaluate water intake from fluid and solid foods and drinking water, and water loss from urine, faeces and sweat at sedentary conditions and physical activity. For validation purposes, the WBQ was administrated in 40 apparently healthy participants aged 22-57 years (37.5% males). Hydration indices in urine (24 h volume, osmolality, specific gravity, pH, colour) were measured through established procedures. Furthermore, the questionnaire was administered twice to 175 subjects to evaluate its reliability. Kendall's τ-b and the Bland and Altman method were used to assess the questionnaire's validity and reliability. The proposed WBQ to assess water balance in healthy individuals was found to be valid and reliable, and it could thus be a useful tool in future projects that aim to evaluate water balance.

  2. Teaching Population Balances for Chemical Engineering Students: Application to Granulation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucala, Veronica; Pina, Juliana

    2007-01-01

    The population balance equation (PBE) is a useful tool to predict particle size distributions in granulation processes. When PBE is taught to advanced chemical engineering students, the internal coordinates (particle properties) are particularly hard to understand. In this paper, the flow of particles along different coordinates is carefully…

  3. The effects of a multi-axis balance board intervention program in an elderly population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, John; Kancel, Anne; Ramar, Cassandra; Meacham, Crystal; Derrington, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Balance is a major issue facing the geriatric population. Nine participants from a local community center for seniors completed a five-week study to assess improvement in balance. Measures of balance, performance times, and scores on the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Wii Fit Age (WFA) were recorded before and after the entire intervention. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures was used to assess change in BBS and WFA scores. An analysis of covariance with repeated measures was used to asses the impact of possible contributing factors of age, gender, BMI and total balance board training time over the five-week period. The analysis indicated that use of the Indo Balance Board three times a week for ten minutes can significantly improve balance and potentially decrease the risk of falls, as measured by the BBS. Age was the only factor that significantly influenced balance (p = .006). These improvements are postulated to be due to an increase in subjects' core and lower extremity muscle strength and improved proprioception; a result of balance board usage.

  4. A Dynamic Model for Load Balancing in Cloud Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Bhagwandas Bhatia

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysis various challenges faced in optimizing computing resource utilization via load balancing and presents a platform-independent model for load balancing which targets high availability of resources, low SLA (Service Level agreement violations and saves power. To achieve this, incoming requests are monitored for sudden burst, a prediction model is employed to maintain high availability and a power-aware algorithm is applied for choosing a suitable physical node for a virtual host. The proposed dynamic load balancing model provides a way to conflicting goals of saving power and maintaining high resource availability.For anyone building a private, public or hybrid IaaS cloud infrastructure, load balancing of virtual hosts on a limited number of physical nodes, becomes a crucial aspect. This paper analysis various challenges faced in optimizing computing resource utilization via load balancing and presents a platform independent model for load balancing which targets high availability of resources, low SLA (Service Level agreement violations and saves power. To achieve this, incoming requests are monitored for sudden burst, prediction model is employed to maintain high availability and power aware algorithm is applied for choosing a suitable physical node for virtual host. The proposed dynamic load balancing model provides a way to conflicting goals of saving power and maintaining high resource availability.

  5. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  6. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, Candice; Kress, Jeff; Schroeder, Jan; Donlin, Ayla; Rozenek, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level...

  7. Busy yet socially engaged: volunteering, work-life balance, and health in the working population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Romualdo; Brauchli, Rebecca; Bauer, Georg; Wehner, Theo; Hämmig, Oliver

    2015-02-01

    To understand the relationship between volunteering and health in the overlooked yet highly engaged working population, adopting a contextualizing balance approach. We hypothesize that volunteering may function as a psychosocial resource, contributing to work-life balance and, ultimately, health. A total of 746 Swiss workers participated in an online survey; 35% (N = 264) were additionally volunteers in a nonprofit organization. We assessed volunteering, work-life balance perceptions, paid job demands, and resources and health outcomes. After controlling for job characteristics, volunteering was associated with less work-life conflict, burnout and stress, and better positive mental health. Results further revealed that balance perceptions partly explained the relationship between volunteering and health. Volunteering, albeit energy and time-consuming, may contribute to a greater sense of balance for people in the workforce, which might, in turn, positively influence health.

  8. The effect of visual biofeedback on balance in elderly population: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhasan H

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Hammad Alhasan,1 Victoria Hood,2 Frederick Mainwaring2 1Physiotherapy Department, Faculty of Applied Medical Science, Umm al-Qura University, Mecca, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 2School of Health Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, UK Background: Balance is commonly affected by multiple factors, especially among the elderly population. Visual biofeedback (VBF is an intervention tool that can be used in balance rehabilitation.Aim: This study aimed to systematically review randomized controlled trials that examine whether VBF training is effective in improving balance in an elderly population.Data sources: Three databases were searched: CIAHL, EMBASE, and MEDLINE. The searches were limited to the period from 2010 to 2016.Eligibility criteria: Healthy adults, aged ≥65 years, with no specific disorders were included. Interventions were any VBF intervention with the aim of improving balance and were compared to no intervention, traditional exercises, placebo, or standard care. The outcome measures were balance as measured by any validated outcome measure.Studies appraisal method: The Physiotherapy Evidence Database quality assessment tool and The Cochrane Collaboration tool for assessing risk of bias were used by two independent authors (HA and FM in order to appraise the included studies.Results: The database search resulted in 879 articles, of which five papers were included. VBF was compared to no intervention, a placebo, and traditional exercise. The total number of participants in all the five included studies was 181, with a mean age of 74.3 years (standard deviation 6.7. Two studies were rated as high-quality studies, and three were rated as fair quality.Conclusion: Engaging elderly people living in the community in VBF training was found to be effective and could improve their balance ability. However, the variation between studies in methodology, intervention protocol, and outcomes utilized made it difficult to

  9. Evaluation of seasonality on total water intake, water loss and water balance in the general population in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, O; Bountziouka, V; Panagiotakos, D Β; Zampelas, A; Kapsokefalou, M

    2013-07-01

    Water balance is achieved when water intake from solid and fluid foods and drinking water meets water losses, mainly in sweat, urine and faeces. Seasonality, particularly in Mediterranean countries that have a hot summer, may affect water loss and consequently water balance. Water balance has not been estimated before on a population level and the effect of seasonality has not been evaluated. The present study aimed to compare water balance, intake and loss in summer and winter in a sample of the general population in Greece. The Water Balance Questionnaire (WBQ) was used to evaluate water balance, estimating water intake and loss in summer (n = 480) and in winter (n = 412) on a stratified sample of the general population in Athens, Greece. In winter, mean (SD) water balance was -63 (1478) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD)water intake was 2892 (987) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 2637 (1810-3922) mL/day(-1) . In summer, mean (SD) water balance was -58 (2150) mL/day(-1) , mean (SD) water intake was 3875 (1373) mL/day(-1) and mean (quartile range) water loss was 3635 (2365-5258) mL/day(-1) . Water balance did not differ between summer and winter (P = 0.96); however, the data distribution was different; in summer, approximately 8% more participants were falling in the low and high water balance categories. Differences in water intake from different sources were identified (P balance in summer and winter was not different. However, water intake and loss were approximately 40% higher in summer than in winter. More people were falling in the low and high water balance categories in summer when comparing the distribution on water balance in winter. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  10. Gait and balance in the aging population: Fall prevention using innovation and technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanuja, Kavisha; Joki, Jaclyn; Bachmann, Gloria; Cuccurullo, Sara

    2018-04-01

    On a global basis, adults 65 years of age and older experience falls more frequently than younger individuals, and these often result in severe injuries as well as increased healthcare costs. Gait and balance disorders in this population are among the most common causes of falls and negatively influence quality of life and survivorship. Although falls are a major public health problem and guidelines/recommendations are available to physicians, many are fully aware of different assessments, tools, and resources available for intervention. Given the risk for potentially devastating outcomes if severe injuries occur secondary to a fall, fall prevention strategies in clinical offices is a timely consideration in today's health care landscape. This paper presents a three-tier model, comprising assessment, prevention, and intervention, to highlight methods, proactive programs, and innovative tools and technology that have been developed for fall prevention. Awareness of these resources will enhance the clinician's ability to accurately assess balance and gait, which can improve physical function, and decrease the risk of falls for both average-risk and high-risk older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linping Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

  12. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  13. Balanced sparse model for tight frames in compressed sensing magnetic resonance imaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsong Liu

    Full Text Available Compressed sensing has shown to be promising to accelerate magnetic resonance imaging. In this new technology, magnetic resonance images are usually reconstructed by enforcing its sparsity in sparse image reconstruction models, including both synthesis and analysis models. The synthesis model assumes that an image is a sparse combination of atom signals while the analysis model assumes that an image is sparse after the application of an analysis operator. Balanced model is a new sparse model that bridges analysis and synthesis models by introducing a penalty term on the distance of frame coefficients to the range of the analysis operator. In this paper, we study the performance of the balanced model in tight frame based compressed sensing magnetic resonance imaging and propose a new efficient numerical algorithm to solve the optimization problem. By tuning the balancing parameter, the new model achieves solutions of three models. It is found that the balanced model has a comparable performance with the analysis model. Besides, both of them achieve better results than the synthesis model no matter what value the balancing parameter is. Experiment shows that our proposed numerical algorithm constrained split augmented Lagrangian shrinkage algorithm for balanced model (C-SALSA-B converges faster than previously proposed algorithms accelerated proximal algorithm (APG and alternating directional method of multipliers for balanced model (ADMM-B.

  14. Towards a balanced value business model for personalized medicine: an outlook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelsch, Christof; Przewrocka, Joanna; Keeling, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Novel targeted drugs, mainly in oncology, have commanded substantial price premiums in the recent past. Consequently, the attention of pharmaceutical companies has shifted away from the traditional low-price and high-volume blockbuster business model to drugs that command high, and sometimes extremely high, prices in limited markets defined by targeted patient populations. This model may have already passed its zenith, as the impact of more and more high-priced drugs coming to market substantially increases their combined burden on payors and public health finances. This article introduces a new 'balanced value' business model for personalized medicine, leveraging the emerging opportunities to reduce drug development cost and time for targeted therapies. This model allows pharmaceutical companies to charge prices for targeted therapy below the likely future thresholds for payors' willingness to pay, at the same time preserving attractive margins for the drug developers.

  15. Calibration of a surface mass balance model for global-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, R. H.; Oerlemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Global applications of surface mass balance models have large uncertainties, as a result of poor climate input data and limited availability of mass balance measurements. This study addresses several possible consequences of these limitations for the modelled mass balance. This is done by applying a

  16. Automatic balancing of 3D models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Asger Nyman; Schmidt, Ryan; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas

    2014-01-01

    3D printing technologies allow for more diverse shapes than are possible with molds and the cost of making just one single object is negligible compared to traditional production methods. However, not all shapes are suitable for 3D print. One of the remaining costs is therefore human time spent......, in these cases, we will apply a rotation of the object which only deforms the shape a little near the base. No user input is required but it is possible to specify manufacturing constraints related to specific 3D print technologies. Several models have successfully been balanced and printed using both polyjet...... is solved by creating cavities of air and distributing dense materials inside the model. Consequently, the surface is not deformed. However, printing materials with significantly different densities is often not possible and adding cavities of air is often not enough to make the model balance. Consequently...

  17. An energy balance model for the Greenland ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    1994-01-01

    The sensitivity of the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is studied by means of an energy balance model. The model calculates the shortwave and longwave radiation and the turbulent fluxes on a grid with a grid point spacing of 20 km. Special attention is given to the parameterization of the

  18. THE SIGNAL APPROACH TO MODELLING THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers and presents synthesis of theoretical models of balance of payment crisis and investigates the most effective ways to model the crisis in Ukraine. For mathematical formalization of balance of payment crisis, comparative analysis of the effectiveness of different calculation methods of Exchange Market Pressure Index was performed. A set of indicators that signal the growing likelihood of balance of payments crisis was defined using signal approach. With the help of minimization function thresholds indicators were selected, the crossing of which signalize increase in the probability of balance of payment crisis.

  19. Modelling and Analysis of a New Piezoelectric Dynamic Balance Regulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu-Xun Xu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator, which can be used in motorised spindle systems, is presented. The dynamic balancing adjustment mechanism is driven by an in-plane bending vibration from an annular piezoelectric stator excited by a high-frequency sinusoidal input voltage. This device has different construction, characteristics and operating principles than a conventional balance regulator. In this work, a dynamic model of the regulator is first developed using a detailed analytical method. Thereafter, MATLAB is employed to numerically simulate the relations between the dominant parameters and the characteristics of the regulator based on thedynamic model. Finally, experimental measurements are used to certify the validity of the dynamic model. Consequently, the mathematical model presented and analysed in this paper can be used as a tool for optimising the design of a piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator during steady state operation.

  20. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  1. Water balance modelling of a uranium mill effluent management system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plagnes, Valérie; Schmid, Brad; Mitchell, Brett; Judd-Henrey, Ian

    2017-06-01

    A water balance model was developed to forecast the management strategy of a uranium mill effluent system, located in northern Saskatchewan, Canada. Mining and milling operations, such as pit dewatering or treated effluent release, can potentially influence the hydrology and the water quality downstream of the operations. This study presents the methodology used to predict water volumes and water quality discharging downstream in surface water bodies. A compartment model representing the three subsequent lakes included in the management system was set up using the software GoldSim®. The water balance allows predicting lake volumes at the daily time step. A mass balance model developed for conservative elements was also developed and allows validating the proportions of inputs and outputs issued from the water balance model. This model was then used as predictive tool to evaluate the impact of different scenarios of effluents management on volumes and chemistry of surface water for short and longer time periods. An additional significant benefit of this model is that it can be used as an input for geochemical modelling to predict the concentrations of all constituents of concern in the receiving surface water.

  2. Balance of plant modeling in TRAC-BD1/MOD1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, W.L.; Giles, M.M.; Mohr, C.M.

    1983-01-01

    The mission of the TRAC-BD1/MOD1 code is to provide a best-estimate analysis capability for Boiling Water Reactor systems and related experimental facilities for the full range of accidents from large and small break Loss-of-Coolant accidents to operational transients including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS), for which point reactor kinetics is adequate (as a first approximation). Recent model developments allow a complete reactor system including the containment and the balance of plant to be modeled. This paper describes the balance of plant models and presents the results of a simulation of a loss-of-feedwater heater transients which was used to assess the performance of the balance of plant models

  3. Exploring uncertainty in glacier mass balance modelling with Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Machguth, H.; Purves, R.S.; Oerlemans, J.; Hoelzle, M.; Paul, F.

    2008-01-01

    By means of Monte Carlo simulations we calculated uncertainty in modelled cumulative mass balance over 400 days at one particular point on the tongue of Morteratsch Glacier, Switzerland, using a glacier energy balance model of intermediate complexity. Before uncertainty assessment, the model was

  4. Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2010-01-01

    Three different measures to determine the optimum balance between calibration objectives are compared: the combined rank method, parameter identifiability and model validation. Four objectives (water balance, hydrograph shape, high flows, low flows) are included in each measure. The contributions of

  5. Balancing energy development and conservation: A method utilizing species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, C.S.; Laubhan, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  6. Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Ruprecht, John K.; Viney, Neil R.

    1996-03-01

    A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers.The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.

  7. Multi-dimensional population balance models of crystallization processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup; von Solms, Nicolas

    A generic and model-based framework for batch cooling crystallization operations has been extended to incorporate continuous and fed-batch processes. Modules for the framework have been developed, including a module for reactions, allowing the study of reactive crystallization within the framework....... A kinetic model library together with an ontology for knowledge representation has been developed, in which kinetic models and relations from the literature are stored along with the references and data. The model library connects to the generic modelling framework as well, as models can be retrieved......, analyzed, used for simulation and stored again. The model library facilitates comparison of expressions for kinetic phenomena and is tightly integrated with the model analysis tools of the framework.Through the framework, a model for a crystallization operation may be systematically generated...

  8. Identifying footprints of directional and balancing selection in marine and freshwater three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, H S; Cano, J M; Merilä, J

    2008-08-01

    Natural selection is expected to leave an imprint on the neutral polymorphisms at the adjacent genomic regions of a selected gene. While directional selection tends to reduce within-population genetic diversity and increase among-population differentiation, the reverse is expected under balancing selection. To identify targets of natural selection in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) genome, 103 microsatellite and two indel markers including expressed sequence tags (EST) and quantitative trait loci (QTL)-associated loci, were genotyped in four freshwater and three marine populations. The results indicated that a high proportion of loci (14.7%) might be affected by balancing selection and a lower proportion (2.8%) by directional selection. The strongest signatures of directional selection were detected in a microsatellite locus and two indel markers located in the intronic regions of the Eda-gene coding for the number of lateral plates. Yet, other microsatellite loci previously found to be informative in QTL-mapping studies revealed no signatures of selection. Two novel microsatellite loci (Stn12 and Stn90) located in chromosomes I and VIII, respectively, showed signals of directional selection and might be linked to genomic regions containing gene(s) important for adaptive divergence. Although the coverage of the total genomic content was relatively low, the predominance of balancing selection signals is in agreement with the contention that balancing, rather than directional selection is the predominant mode of selection in the wild.

  9. Plant balance model for RELAP/SCDAPSIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza M, R.; Filio L, C.; Araiza M, E.; Ortiz V, J.

    2017-09-01

    In this work we developed an integral model for a nuclear power plant and have a more general picture of what happens in both the Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) and the Balance of Plant (Bop) system during abnormal events that are presented in operation. RELAP/SCDAPSIM (RSS) is a computation code of the type of best estimate that can simulate the transient and accident behavior of a nuclear installation. The development of a Bop model for RSS can result in the simulation of transients such as turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser. This work shows the development of models of the Bop main components for the RSS code, such as the set of high and low pressure turbines, as well as their steam extractions to the feed water heaters, the main steam condenser, a feed water heater and the condensate and water feed pumps. This new model of the Plant Balance system was then coupled to the NSSS model that is already in RSS. First, results of the steady state with this new integral model are show, to later show results of the transients simulation: 1) turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser; 2) loss of condensate pumps; and 3) failure of the feed water heater. (Author)

  10. Improving the Xin'anjiang hydrological model based on mass–energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-H. Fang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models are preferable for real-time flood forecasting, among which the Xin'anjiang (XAJ model has been widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China. Although the relatively simple mass balance scheme ensures a good performance of runoff simulation during flood events, the model still has some defects. Previous studies have confirmed the importance of evapotranspiration (ET and soil moisture content (SMC in runoff simulation. In order to add more constraints to the original XAJ model, an energy balance scheme suitable for the XAJ model was developed and coupled with the original mass balance scheme of the XAJ model. The detailed parameterizations of the improved model, XAJ-EB, are presented in the first part of this paper. XAJ-EB employs various meteorological forcing and remote sensing data as input, simulating ET and runoff yield using a more physically based mass–energy balance scheme. In particular, the energy balance is solved by determining the representative equilibrium temperature (RET, which is comparable to land surface temperature (LST. The XAJ-EB was evaluated in the Lushui catchment situated in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin for the period between 2004 and 2007. Validation using ground-measured runoff data proves that the XAJ-EB is capable of reproducing runoff comparable to the original XAJ model. Additionally, RET simulated by XAJ-EB agreed well with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS-retrieved LST, which further confirms that the model is able to simulate the mass–energy balance since LST reflects the interactions among various processes. The validation results prove that the XAJ-EB model has superior performance compared with the XAJ model and also extends its applicability.

  11. Selectivity and sparseness in randomly connected balanced networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cengiz Pehlevan

    Full Text Available Neurons in sensory cortex show stimulus selectivity and sparse population response, even in cases where no strong functionally specific structure in connectivity can be detected. This raises the question whether selectivity and sparseness can be generated and maintained in randomly connected networks. We consider a recurrent network of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons with random connectivity, driven by random projections from an input layer of stimulus selective neurons. In this architecture, the stimulus-to-stimulus and neuron-to-neuron modulation of total synaptic input is weak compared to the mean input. Surprisingly, we show that in the balanced state the network can still support high stimulus selectivity and sparse population response. In the balanced state, strong synapses amplify the variation in synaptic input and recurrent inhibition cancels the mean. Functional specificity in connectivity emerges due to the inhomogeneity caused by the generative statistical rule used to build the network. We further elucidate the mechanism behind and evaluate the effects of model parameters on population sparseness and stimulus selectivity. Network response to mixtures of stimuli is investigated. It is shown that a balanced state with unselective inhibition can be achieved with densely connected input to inhibitory population. Balanced networks exhibit the "paradoxical" effect: an increase in excitatory drive to inhibition leads to decreased inhibitory population firing rate. We compare and contrast selectivity and sparseness generated by the balanced network to randomly connected unbalanced networks. Finally, we discuss our results in light of experiments.

  12. Modeling of Two-Wheeled Self-Balancing Robot Driven by DC Gearmotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankovský, P.; Dominik, L.; Gmiterko, A.; Virgala, I.; Kurylo, P.; Perminova, O.

    2017-08-01

    This paper is aimed at modelling a two-wheeled self-balancing robot driven by the geared DC motors. A mathematical model consists of two main parts, the model of robot's mechanical structure and the model of the actuator. Linearized equations of motion are derived and the overall model of the two-wheeled self-balancing robot is represented in state-space realization for the purpose of state feedback controller design.

  13. A power balance model for handcycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, Wim G.; van der Woude, Lucas H. V.; De Koning, Jos J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. To demonstrate the applicability of the power balance model to elite handcycling and to obtain values for gross efficiency (GE). Methods. Four members of the Dutch Paralympic team performed trials on a 250-m indoor track. Velocity (v) and power output (PO) were measured in conjunction with

  14. Calibrating a surface mass-balance model for Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar; Loe, Even; Taurisano, Andrea; Eiken, Trond; Hagen, Jon Ove; Kohler, Jack

    2007-10-01

    Austfonna (8120 km2) is by far the largest ice mass in the Svalbard archipelago. There is considerable uncertainty about its current state of balance and its possible response to climate change. Over the 2004/05 period, we collected continuous meteorological data series from the ice cap, performed mass-balance measurements using a network of stakes distributed across the ice cap and mapped the distribution of snow accumulation using ground-penetrating radar along several profile lines. These data are used to drive and test a model of the surface mass balance. The spatial accumulation pattern was derived from the snow depth profiles using regression techniques, and ablation was calculated using a temperature-index approach. Model parameters were calibrated using the available field data. Parameter calibration was complicated by the fact that different parameter combinations yield equally acceptable matches to the stake data while the resulting calculated net mass balance differs considerably. Testing model results against multiple criteria is an efficient method to cope with non-uniqueness. In doing so, a range of different data and observations was compared to several different aspects of the model results. We find a systematic underestimation of net balance for parameter combinations that predict observed ice ablation, which suggests that refreezing processes play an important role. To represent these effects in the model, a simple PMAX approach was included in its formulation. Used as a diagnostic tool, the model suggests that the surface mass balance for the period 29 April 2004 to 23 April 2005 was negative (-318 mm w.e.).

  15. Midlatitude Forcing Mechanisms for Glacier Mass Balance Investigated Using General Circulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2001-01-01

    A process-oriented modeling approach is applied in order to simulate glacier mass balance for individual glaciers using statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs). Glacier-specific seasonal sensitivity characteristics based on a mass balance model of intermediate complexity are used

  16. Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

    2013-02-01

    A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

  17. Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

    2013-02-01

    A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

  18. Modeling of Two-Wheeled Self-Balancing Robot Driven by DC Gearmotors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frankovský P.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at modelling a two-wheeled self-balancing robot driven by the geared DC motors. A mathematical model consists of two main parts, the model of robot’s mechanical structure and the model of the actuator. Linearized equations of motion are derived and the overall model of the two-wheeled self-balancing robot is represented in state-space realization for the purpose of state feedback controller design.

  19. The complexity of role balance: support for the Model of Juggling Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Kiah L; Millsteed, Jeannine; Richmond, Janet E; Falkmer, Marita; Falkmer, Torbjorn; Girdler, Sonya J

    2014-09-01

    This pilot study aimed to establish the appropriateness of the Model of Juggling Occupations in exploring the complex experience of role balance amongst working women with family responsibilities living in Perth, Australia. In meeting this aim, an evaluation was conducted of a case study design, where data were collected through a questionnaire, time diary, and interview. Overall role balance varied over time and across participants. Positive indicators of role balance occurred frequently in the questionnaires and time diaries, despite the interviews revealing a predominance of negative evaluations of role balance. Between-role balance was achieved through compatible role overlap, buffering, and renewal. An exploration of within-role balance factors demonstrated that occupational participation, values, interests, personal causation, and habits were related to role balance. This pilot study concluded that the Model of Juggling Occupations is an appropriate conceptual framework to explore the complex and dynamic experience of role balance amongst working women with family responsibilities. It was also confirmed that the case study design, including the questionnaire, time diary, and interview methods, is suitable for researching role balance from this perspective.

  20. Applying an orographic precipitation model to improve mass balance modeling of the Juneau Icefield, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, A. C.; Hock, R.; Schuler, T.; Bieniek, P.; Aschwanden, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mass loss from glaciers in Southeast Alaska is expected to alter downstream ecological systems as runoff patterns change. To investigate these potential changes under future climate scenarios, distributed glacier mass balance modeling is required. However, the spatial resolution gap between global or regional climate models and the requirements for glacier mass balance modeling studies must be addressed first. We have used a linear theory of orographic precipitation model to downscale precipitation from both the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ERA-Interim to the Juneau Icefield region over the period 1979-2013. This implementation of the LT model is a unique parameterization that relies on the specification of snow fall speed and rain fall speed as tuning parameters to calculate the cloud time delay, τ. We assessed the LT model results by considering winter precipitation so the effect of melt was minimized. The downscaled precipitation pattern produced by the LT model captures the orographic precipitation pattern absent from the coarse resolution WRF and ERA-Interim precipitation fields. Observational data constraints limited our ability to determine a unique parameter combination and calibrate the LT model to glaciological observations. We established a reference run of parameter values based on literature and performed a sensitivity analysis of the LT model parameters, horizontal resolution, and climate input data on the average winter precipitation. The results of the reference run showed reasonable agreement with the available glaciological measurements. The precipitation pattern produced by the LT model was consistent regardless of parameter combination, horizontal resolution, and climate input data, but the precipitation amount varied strongly with these factors. Due to the consistency of the winter precipitation pattern and the uncertainty in precipitation amount, we suggest a precipitation index map approach to be used in combination with

  1. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Candice; Kress, Jeff; Schroeder, Jan; Donlin, Ayla; Rozenek, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level activity participants (7,500 steps/day) in weight, age, and the number of medications reported. Males performed better than females on the two-footed jump test and reactive postural test FAB assessments. High-level activity participants performed significantly better than low-level activity participants on all FAB assessments except stand with feet together and eyes closed, reach forward to object, and walk with head turns.

  2. Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2017-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

  3. Macroscopic balance equations for two-phase flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, E.D.

    1979-01-01

    The macroscopic, or overall, balance equations of mass, momentum, and energy are derived for a two-fluid model of two-phase flows in complex geometries. These equations provide a base for investigating methods of incorporating improved analysis methods into computer programs, such as RETRAN, which are used for transient and steady-state thermal-hydraulic analyses of nuclear steam supply systems. The equations are derived in a very general manner so that three-dimensional, compressible flows can be analysed. The equations obtained supplement the various partial differential equation two-fluid models of two-phase flow which have recently appeared in the literature. The primary objective of the investigation is the macroscopic balance equations. (Auth.)

  4. The Relationship Between Pedometer-Determined Ambulatory Activity and Balance Variables Within an Older Adult Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candice Campbell MS

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this investigation was to determine the differences between gender, physical activity level, and balance in an older adult population. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between pedometer-determined ambulatory activity and balance. Forty-six older adults aged 73.7 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Participants completed the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB Scale and completed a 2-week daily step recording to determine average steps taken per day. Low-level activity participants (7,500 steps/day in weight, age, and the number of medications reported. Males performed better than females on the two-footed jump test and reactive postural test FAB assessments. High-level activity participants performed significantly better than low-level activity participants on all FAB assessments except stand with feet together and eyes closed, reach forward to object, and walk with head turns.

  5. A Monthly Water-Balance Model Driven By a Graphical User Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.

    2007-01-01

    This report describes a monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface, referred to as the Thornthwaite monthly water-balance program. Computations of monthly water-balance components of the hydrologic cycle are made for a specified location. The program can be used as a research tool, an assessment tool, and a tool for classroom instruction.

  6. Local Balancing System from the Business Model Canvas Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matusiak Bożena Ewa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an overall view of the business model (BM for the e-balance system for: balancing energy production and consumption in energy efficient, smart neighbourhoods (the e-balance project, FP7-SMARTCITIES-2013 along with its functionalities, based upon the Osterwalder’s canvas methodology. Additionally, this is the second, after two years of work, more incisive evaluation of the BM from the user’s and demo site’s perspective (Bronsbergen, the Netherlands. The aim of this paper is to present results and assess the above mentioned BM in the face its commercialisation and applicability to Europe.

  7. Simulation of the water balance of boreal watersheds of northeastern British Columbia, Canada using MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadzadesahraei, S.; Déry, S.; Rex, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Northeastern British Columbia (BC) is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction, largely depending on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which relies on available freshwater. Even though this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. Further, BC statistics predict that the northeastern region's population will increase by 30% over the next 25 years, thereby amplifying the demands of domestic and industrial water usage. Hence, given the increasing demands for surface water in the complex wetlands of northeastern BC, obtaining accurate long-term water balance information is of vital importance. Thus, this study aims to simulate the 1979-2014 water balance at two boreal watersheds using the MIKE SHE model. More specifically, this research intends to quantify the historical, and regional, water budgets and their associated hydrological processes at two boreal watersheds—the Coles Lake and Tsea Lake watersheds—in northeastern BC. The development of coupled groundwater and surface water model of these watersheds are discussed. The model setup, calibration process, and results are presented, focusing on the water balance of boreal watersheds. Hydrological components within these watersheds are quantified through a combination of intensive fieldwork, observational data, analysis and numerical modeling. The output from the model provides important information for decision makers to manage water resources in northeastern BC. Keywords: Northeastern BC; boreal watershed; water balance; MIKE SHE hydrological model.

  8. Radiatively-driven winds: model improvements, ionization balance and the infared spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castor, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    Recent improvements to theoretical stellar wind models and the results of empirical modelling of the ionization balance and the infrared continuum are discussed. The model of a wind driven by radiation pressure in spectral lines is improved by accounting for overlap of the driving lines, dependence of ionization balance on density, and stellar rotation. These effects produce a softer velocity law than that given by Castor, Abbott and Klein (1975). The ionization balance in zeta Puppis is shown to agree with that estimated for an optically thick wind at a gas temperature of 60,000 K. The ionization model is not unique. The infrared continuum of zeta Pup measured by Barlow and Cohen is fitted to a cool model with a linear rise of velocity with radius; this fit is also not unique. It is concluded that one should try to find a model that fits several kinds of evidence simultaneously. (Auth.)

  9. The effect of subdivision on variation at multi-allelic loci under balancing selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schierup, M H; Vekemans, X; Charlesworth, D

    2000-01-01

    Simulations are used to investigate the expected pattern of variation at loci under different forms of multi-allelic balancing selection in a finite island model of a subdivided population. The objective is to evaluate the effect of restricted migration among demes on the distribution of polymorp......Simulations are used to investigate the expected pattern of variation at loci under different forms of multi-allelic balancing selection in a finite island model of a subdivided population. The objective is to evaluate the effect of restricted migration among demes on the distribution...

  10. Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Christopher J; Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Farrell, Katharine N; Grimm, Volker

    2015-11-01

    Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tie models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that are included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.

  11. Comparison of explicit and effective models for calculating ionic populations in argon plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdallah, J. Jr.; Clark, R.E.H.

    1994-01-01

    Calculations have been performed to model the state populations of argon plasmas at electron densities at and above those required for the validity of coronal equilibrium. Both effective and explicit models have been used, and both are based on the same set of atomic cross sections. The effective model includes ground and singly excited states explicitly, while the effect of autoionizing states is accounted for by branching factors which describe their depopulation into the various non-autoionizing states. The explicit model considers both autoionizing and non-autoionizing states explicitly. The effective model requires a significantly reduced amount of computer time and memory. Good agreement between the two models can be obtained through moderate densities if the branching factors include electron density dependent terms which describe the collisional stabilization of each autoionizing state. The effective model breaks down as density is increased because the population of individual autoionizing states become significant. Results for both ionization balance and radiated power loss are presented. (Author)

  12. The effect of hitch-hiking on genes linked to a balanced polymorphism in a subdivided population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schierup, M H; Charlesworth, D; Vekemans, X

    2000-01-01

    types of subdivision are present: (1) into demes (connected by migration), and (2) into classes defined by different functional alleles at the selected locus (connected by recombination). Previous theoretical studies of each type of subdivision separately have shown that each increases diversity...... to detect balancing selection by its effects on linked variation, using tests such as Tajima's D, is reduced when genes in a subdivided population are sampled from the total population, rather than within demes. Udgivelsesdato: 2000-Aug...

  13. Validity of the Nintendo Wii® balance board for the assessment of standing balance in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jeffrey D; Jenkins, Mary E; Johnson, Andrew M; Hunt, Michael A; Clark, Ross A

    2013-04-01

    Impaired postural stability places individuals with Parkinson's at an increased risk for falls. Given the high incidence of fall-related injuries within this population, ongoing assessment of postural stability is important. To evaluate the validity of the Nintendo Wii(®) balance board as a measurement tool for the assessment of postural stability in individuals with Parkinson's. Twenty individuals with Parkinson's participated. Subjects completed testing on two balance tasks with eyes open and closed on a Wii(®) balance board and biomechanical force platform. Bland-Altman plots and a two-way, random-effects, single measure intraclass correlation coefficient model were used to assess concurrent validity of centre-of-pressure data. Concurrent validity was demonstrated to be excellent across balance tasks (intraclass correlation coefficients = 0.96, 0.98, 0.92, 0.94). This study suggests that the Wii(®) balance board is a valid tool for the quantification of postural stability among individuals with Parkinson's.

  14. Nonlinear dynamics modeling and simulation of two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunping Liu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle system is a kind of naturally unstable underactuated system with high-rank unstable multivariable strongly coupling complicated dynamic nonlinear property. Nonlinear dynamics modeling and simulation, as a basis of two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle dynamics research, has the guiding effect for system design of the project demonstration and design phase. Dynamics model of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle is established by importing a TSi ProPac package to the Mathematica software (version 8.0, which analyzes the stability and calculates the Lyapunov exponents of the system. The relationship between external force and stability of the system is analyzed by the phase trajectory. Proportional–integral–derivative control is added to the system in order to improve the stability of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle. From the research, Lyapunov exponent can be used to research the stability of hyperchaos system. The stability of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle is better by inputting the proportional–integral–derivative control. The Lyapunov exponent and phase trajectory can help us analyze the stability of a system better and lay the foundation for the analysis and control of the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle system.

  15. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Möller, M.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.; Pohjola, V.A.; Glowacki, P.; Kohler, J.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available

  16. Effect of peristalsis in balance of intestinal microbial ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirbagheri, Seyed Amir; Fu, Henry C.

    2017-11-01

    A balance of microbiota density in gastrointestinal tracts is necessary for health of the host. Although peristaltic flow made by intestinal muscles is constantly evacuating the lumen, bacterial density stay balanced. Some of bacteria colonize in the secreted mucus where there is no flow, but the rest resist the peristaltic flow in lumen and maintain their population. Using a coupled two-dimensional model of flow induced by large amplitude peristaltic waves, bacterial motility, reproduction, and diffusion, we address how bacterial growth and motility combined with peristaltic flow affect the balance of the intestinal microbial ecosystem.

  17. Plant balance model for RELAP/SCDAPSIM; Modelo de balance de planta para RELAP/SCDAPSIM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza M, R. [Consultor independiente, Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Filio L, C. [IPN, Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas, Av. IPN s/n, 07738 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico); Araiza M, E.; Ortiz V, J., E-mail: rafael_mendozam_esfm@live.com.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Touca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2017-09-15

    In this work we developed an integral model for a nuclear power plant and have a more general picture of what happens in both the Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) and the Balance of Plant (Bop) system during abnormal events that are presented in operation. RELAP/SCDAPSIM (RSS) is a computation code of the type of best estimate that can simulate the transient and accident behavior of a nuclear installation. The development of a Bop model for RSS can result in the simulation of transients such as turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser. This work shows the development of models of the Bop main components for the RSS code, such as the set of high and low pressure turbines, as well as their steam extractions to the feed water heaters, the main steam condenser, a feed water heater and the condensate and water feed pumps. This new model of the Plant Balance system was then coupled to the NSSS model that is already in RSS. First, results of the steady state with this new integral model are show, to later show results of the transients simulation: 1) turbine trip due to loss of vacuum in the main steam condenser; 2) loss of condensate pumps; and 3) failure of the feed water heater. (Author)

  18. Arid site water balance: evapotranspiration modeling and measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Kirkham, R.R.

    1984-09-01

    In order to evaluate the magnitude of radionuclide transport at an aird site, a field and modeling study was conducted to measure and predict water movement under vegetated and bare soil conditions. Significant quantities of water were found to move below the roo of a shallow-rooted grass-covered area during wet years at the Hanford site. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, was resonably successful in simulating the transient behavior of the water balance at this site. The effects of layered soils on water balance were demonstrated using the model. Models used to evaluate water balance in arid regions should not rely on annual averages and assume that all precipitation is removed by evapotranspiration. The potential for drainage at arid sites exists under conditions where shallow rooted plants grow on coarse textured soils. This condition was observed at our study site at Hanford. Neutron probe data collected on a cheatgrass community at the Hanford site during a wet year indicated that over 5 cm of water drained below the 3.5-m depth. The unsaturated water flow model, UNSAT-1D, predicted water drainage of about 5 cm (single layer, 10 months) and 3.5 cm (two layers, 12 months) for the same time period. Additional field measurements of hydraulic conductivity will likely improve the drainage estimate made by UNSAT-1D. Additional information describing cheatgrass growth and water use at the grass site could improve model predictions of sink terms and subsequent calculations of water storage within the rooting zone. In arid areas where the major part of the annual precipitation occurs during months with low average potential evapotranspiration and where soils are vegetated but are coarse textured and well drained, significant drainage can occur. 31 references, 18 figures, 1 table

  19. Modelling heavy metal and phosphorus balances for farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keller, A.N.; Schulin, R.

    2003-01-01

    Accounting for agricultural activities such as P fertilization in regional models of heavy metal accumulation provides suitable sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient surpluses and metal inputs in agricultural soils. Using the balance model PROTERRA-S, we assessed the phosphorus ( P),

  20. Improve SSME power balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karr, Gerald R.

    1992-01-01

    Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

  1. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  2. Balancing selection and heterogeneity across the classical human leukocyte antigen loci: a meta-analytic review of 497 population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solberg, Owen D; Mack, Steven J; Lancaster, Alex K; Single, Richard M; Tsai, Yingssu; Sanchez-Mazas, Alicia; Thomson, Glenys

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a meta-analysis of high-resolution human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele frequency data describing 497 population samples. Most of the datasets were compiled from studies published in eight journals from 1990 to 2007; additional datasets came from the International Histocompatibility Workshops and from the AlleleFrequencies.net database. In all, these data represent approximately 66,800 individuals from throughout the world, providing an opportunity to observe trends that may not have been evident at the time the data were originally analyzed, especially with regard to the relative importance of balancing selection among the HLA loci. Population genetic measures of allele frequency distributions were summarized across populations by locus and geographic region. A role for balancing selection maintaining much of HLA variation was confirmed. Further, the breadth of this meta-analysis allowed the ranking of the HLA loci, with DQA1 and HLA-C showing the strongest balancing selection and DPB1 being compatible with neutrality. Comparisons of the allelic spectra reported by studies since 1990 indicate that most of the HLA alleles identified since 2000 are very-low-frequency alleles. The literature-based allele-count data, as well as maps summarizing the geographic distributions for each allele, are available online.

  3. Dynamic calibration and validation of an accelerometer force balance for hypersonic lifting models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prakash; Trivedi, Sharad; Menezes, Viren; Hosseini, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    An accelerometer-based force balance was designed and developed for the measurement of drag, lift, and rolling moment on a blunt-nosed, flapped delta wing in a short-duration hypersonic shock tunnel. Calibration and validation of the balance were carried out by a convolution technique using hammer pulse test and surface pressure measurements. In the hammer pulse test, a known impulse was applied to the model in the appropriate direction using an impulse hammer, and the corresponding output of the balance (acceleration) was recorded. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was operated on the output of the balance to generate a system response function, relating the signal output to the corresponding load input. Impulse response functions for three components of the balance, namely, axial, normal, and angular, were obtained for a range of input load. The angular system response function was corresponding to rolling of the model. The impulse response functions thus obtained, through dynamic calibration, were operated on the output (signals) of the balance under hypersonic aerodynamic loading conditions in the tunnel to get the time history of the unknown aerodynamic forces and moments acting on the model. Surface pressure measurements were carried out on the model using high frequency pressure transducers, and forces and moments were deduced thereon. Tests were carried out at model angles of incidence of 0, 5, 10, and 15 degrees. A good agreement was observed among the results of different experimental methods. The balance developed is a comprehensive force/moment measurement device that can be used on complex, lifting, aerodynamic geometries in ground-based hypersonic test facilities.

  4. Incorporating Ecosystem Processes Controlling Carbon Balance Into Models of Coupled Human-Natural Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W.; Brown, D. G.; Brunner, A.; Fouladbash, L.; Hadzick, Z.; Hutchins, M.; Kiger, S. E.; Makino, Y.; Nassauer, J. I.; Robinson, D. T.; Riolo, R. L.; Sun, S.

    2012-12-01

    A key element in the study of coupled human-natural systems is the interactions of human populations with vegetation and soils. In human-dominated landscapes, vegetation production and change results from a combination of ecological processes and human decision-making and behavior. Vegetation is often dramatically altered, whether to produce food for humans and livestock, to harvest fiber for construction and other materials, to harvest fuel wood or feedstock for biofuels, or simply for cultural preferences as in the case of residential lawns with sparse trees in the exurban landscape. This alteration of vegetation and its management has a substantial impact on the landscape carbon balance. Models can be used to simulate scenarios in human-natural systems and to examine the integration of processes that determine future trajectories of carbon balance. However, most models of human-natural systems include little integration of the human alteration of vegetation with the ecosystem processes that regulate carbon balance. Here we illustrate a few case studies of pilot-study models that strive for this integration from our research across various types of landscapes. We focus greater detail on a fully developed research model linked to a field study of vegetation and soils in the exurban residential landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. The field study characterized vegetation and soil carbon storage in 5 types of ecological zones. Field-observed carbon storage in the vegetation in these zones ranged widely, from 150 g C/m2 in turfgrass zones, to 6,000 g C/m2 in zones defined as turfgrass with sparse woody vegetation, to 16,000 g C/m2 in a zone defined as dense trees and shrubs. Use of these zones facilitated the scaling of carbon pools to the landscape, where the areal mixtures of zone types had a significant impact on landscape C storage. Use of these zones also facilitated the use of the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC to simulate C trajectories and also

  5. Refined energy-balance modelling of a supraglacial pond, Langtang Khola, Nepal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miles, Evan S.; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Willis, Ian C.; Steiner, Jakob F.; Buri, Pascal; Arnold, Neil S.

    2016-01-01

    Supraglacial ponds on debris-covered glaciers present a mechanism of atmosphere/glacier energy transfer that is poorly studied, and only conceptually included in mass-balance studies of debris-covered glaciers. This research advances previous efforts to develop a model of mass and energy balance for

  6. Macroscopic balance model for wave rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Gerard E.

    1996-01-01

    A mathematical model for multi-port wave rotors is described. The wave processes that effect energy exchange within the rotor passage are modeled using one-dimensional gas dynamics. Macroscopic mass and energy balances relate volume-averaged thermodynamic properties in the rotor passage control volume to the mass, momentum, and energy fluxes at the ports. Loss models account for entropy production in boundary layers and in separating flows caused by blade-blockage, incidence, and gradual opening and closing of rotor passages. The mathematical model provides a basis for predicting design-point wave rotor performance, port timing, and machine size. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with CFD calculations and three-port wave rotor experimental data. A four-port wave rotor design example is provided to demonstrate model applicability. The modeling approach is amenable to wave rotor optimization studies and rapid assessment of the trade-offs associated with integrating wave rotors into gas turbine engine systems.

  7. A Mass Balance Model of Lyell and Maclure Glaciers in Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, K. A.; Stock, G. M.; Sharping, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    The Lyell and Maclure glaciers, two historically important glaciers of Yosemite National Park, have been rapidly retreating since the late 1800's. I attempted to quantify the water balance of two basins containing these glaciers. Water inputs were calculated by applying snow pillow data and two precipitation vs. elevation slope models. Water outputs consisted of a simplified evapotranspiration model and stream runoff data. Fifty-six linear combinations of precipitation and evaporation were used to develop water balance models. Most of these models predicted melt rates from the two glaciers outside of empirical observations. However, both the Lyell Glacier Basin and the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne Basin water balance spreads had notable Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics: Lyell Glacier with p = 0.34 for 2013 and p = 0.37 for 2014, and Lyell Fork with p = 0.45 for 2009. The basin containing Lyell Glacier had a water balance spread of between -1,105×10^3m^3 and +58×10^3m^3+ (interquartile range) with a mean of -564×10^3m^3 for the 2013 hydrologic year, and between -1,137×10^3m^3 and +21×10^3m^3 (interquartile range) with a mean of-583×10^3m^3 for the 2014 hydrologic year. The Lyell fork of the Tuolumne basin containing both Lyell and Maclure Glaciers had a water balance spread of between-14,350×10^3m^3 and +7,454×10^3m^3 (interquartile range) with a mean of -2,426×10^3m^3 for the 2009 hydrologic year. Variations observed in water balance models for Lyell Glacier in this study are an order of magnitude larger than the expected melt signal, and two orders of magnitude for the Lyell Fork of the Tuolumne water balance models.

  8. Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2008-09-01

    We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

  9. Diagnostic and correction of chronic-biological mis-balances of population at radiation injuries in regions with increased radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncharova, T.G.; Vasil'eva, G.S.

    2003-01-01

    It was shown the possibility of bio-indication of population irradiation and its rehabilitation by estimation of chronic biological mis-balances and correction realization. Investigation were accomplished on people contingent living at the former Semipalatinsk test site

  10. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  11. Water balance versus land surface model in the simulation of Rhine river discharges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurkmans, R.T.W.L.; Moel, de H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Troch, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate streamflow simulations in large river basins are crucial to predict timing and magnitude of floods and droughts and to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. Water balance models have been used frequently for these purposes. Compared to water balance models, however, land

  12. Balancing reserves within a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050. From market developments to model insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenz, Casimir [German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Energy, Transportation, Environment; Univ. of Technology, Berlin (Germany). Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy (WIP)

    2017-03-30

    This paper expands the discussion about future balancing reserve provision to the long-term perspective of 2050. Most pathways for a transformation towards a decarbonized electricity sector rely on very high shares of fluctuating renewables. This can be a challenge for the provision of balancing reserves, although their influence on the balancing cost is unclear. Apart from the transformation of the generation portfolio, various technical and regulatory developments within the balancing framework might further influence balancing costs: i) dynamic dimensioning of balancing reserves, ii) provision by fluctuating renewables or new (battery) storage technologies, and iii) exchange of balancing reserves between balancing zones. The first part of this paper discusses and transforms these developments into quantitative scenario definitions. The second part applies these scenarios to dynELMOD (dynamic Electricity Model), an investment model of the European electricity system that is extended to include balancing reserve provision. In contrast to other models applied in most papers on balancing reserves, this model is capable of evaluating the interdependencies between developments in balancing reserve provision and high shares of fluctuating renewables jointly. The results show that balancing reserve cost can be kept at current levels for a renewable electricity system until 2050, when using a dynamic reserve sizing horizon. Apart from the sizing horizon, storage capacity withholding duration and additional balancing demand from RES are the main driver of balancing costs. Renewables participation in balancing provision is mainly important for negative reserves, while storages play an important role for the provision of positive reserves. However, only on very few occasions, additional storage investments are required for balancing reserve provision, as most of the time sufficient storage capacities are available in the electricity system.

  13. Balancing reserves within a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050. From market developments to model insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, Casimir

    2017-01-01

    This paper expands the discussion about future balancing reserve provision to the long-term perspective of 2050. Most pathways for a transformation towards a decarbonized electricity sector rely on very high shares of fluctuating renewables. This can be a challenge for the provision of balancing reserves, although their influence on the balancing cost is unclear. Apart from the transformation of the generation portfolio, various technical and regulatory developments within the balancing framework might further influence balancing costs: i) dynamic dimensioning of balancing reserves, ii) provision by fluctuating renewables or new (battery) storage technologies, and iii) exchange of balancing reserves between balancing zones. The first part of this paper discusses and transforms these developments into quantitative scenario definitions. The second part applies these scenarios to dynELMOD (dynamic Electricity Model), an investment model of the European electricity system that is extended to include balancing reserve provision. In contrast to other models applied in most papers on balancing reserves, this model is capable of evaluating the interdependencies between developments in balancing reserve provision and high shares of fluctuating renewables jointly. The results show that balancing reserve cost can be kept at current levels for a renewable electricity system until 2050, when using a dynamic reserve sizing horizon. Apart from the sizing horizon, storage capacity withholding duration and additional balancing demand from RES are the main driver of balancing costs. Renewables participation in balancing provision is mainly important for negative reserves, while storages play an important role for the provision of positive reserves. However, only on very few occasions, additional storage investments are required for balancing reserve provision, as most of the time sufficient storage capacities are available in the electricity system.

  14. Physical Limitations of Empirical Field Models: Force Balance and Plasma Pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorin Zaharia; Cheng, C.Z.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we study whether the magnetic field of the T96 empirical model can be in force balance with an isotropic plasma pressure distribution. Using the field of T96, we obtain values for the pressure P by solving a Poisson-type equation (gradient) 2 P = (gradient) · (J x B) in the equatorial plane, and 1-D profiles on the Sun-Earth axis by integrating (gradient)P = J x B. We work in a flux coordinate system in which the magnetic field is expressed in terms of Euler potentials. Our results lead to the conclusion that the T96 model field cannot be in equilibrium with an isotropic pressure. We also analyze in detail the computation of Birkeland currents using the Vasyliunas relation and the T96 field, which yields unphysical results, again indicating the lack of force balance in the empirical model. The underlying reason for the force imbalance is likely the fact that the derivatives of the least-square fitted model B are not accurate predictions of the actual magnetospheric field derivatives. Finally, we discuss a possible solution to the problem of lack of force balance in empirical field models

  15. Battery model for electrical power system energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafen, D. P.

    1983-01-01

    A model to simulate nickel-cadmium battery performance and response in a spacecraft electrical power system energy balance calculation was developed. The voltage of the battery is given as a function of temperature, operating depth-of-charge (DOD), and battery state-of-charge. Also accounted for is charge inefficiency. A battery is modeled by analysis of the results of a multiparameter battery cycling test at various temperatures and DOD's.

  16. Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

    2014-01-01

    The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

  17. Balance Assessment Practices and Use of Standardized Balance Measures Among Ontario Physical Therapists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibley, Kathryn M.; Straus, Sharon E.; Inness, Elizabeth L.; Salbach, Nancy M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Balance impairment is a significant problem for older adults, as it can influence daily functioning. Treating balance impairment in this population is a major focus of physical therapist practice. Objective The purpose of this study was to document current practices in clinical balance assessment and compare components of balance assessed and measures used across practice areas among physical therapists. Design This was a cross-sectional study. Methods A survey questionnaire was mailed to 1,000 practicing physical therapists in Ontario, Canada. Results Three hundred sixty-nine individuals completed the survey questionnaire. More than 80% of respondents reported that they regularly (more than 60% of the time) assessed postural alignment, static and dynamic stability, functional balance, and underlying motor systems. Underlying sensory systems, cognitive contributions to balance, and reactive control were regularly assessed by 59.6%, 55.0%, and 41.2% of the respondents, respectively. The standardized measures regularly used by the most respondents were the single-leg stance test (79.1%), the Berg Balance Scale (45.0%), and the Timed “Up & Go” Test (27.6%). There was considerable variation in the components of balance assessed and measures used by respondents treating individuals in the orthopedic, neurologic, geriatric, and general rehabilitation populations. Limitations The survey provides quantitative data about what is done to assess balance, but does not explain the factors influencing current practice. Conclusions Many important components of balance and standardized measures are regularly used by physical therapists to assess balance. Further research, however, is needed to understand the factors contributing to the relatively lower rates of assessing reactive control, the component of balance most directly responsible for avoiding a fall. PMID:21868613

  18. Accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo simulation for coagulation dynamics from the Markov jump model, stochastic algorithm and GPU parallel computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zuwei; Zhao, Haibo; Zheng, Chuguang

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for accelerating population balance-Monte Carlo (PBMC) simulation of particle coagulation dynamics. By combining Markov jump model, weighted majorant kernel and GPU (graphics processing unit) parallel computing, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. The Markov jump model constructs a coagulation-rule matrix of differentially-weighted simulation particles, so as to capture the time evolution of particle size distribution with low statistical noise over the full size range and as far as possible to reduce the number of time loopings. Here three coagulation rules are highlighted and it is found that constructing appropriate coagulation rule provides a route to attain the compromise between accuracy and cost of PBMC methods. Further, in order to avoid double looping over all simulation particles when considering the two-particle events (typically, particle coagulation), the weighted majorant kernel is introduced to estimate the maximum coagulation rates being used for acceptance–rejection processes by single-looping over all particles, and meanwhile the mean time-step of coagulation event is estimated by summing the coagulation kernels of rejected and accepted particle pairs. The computational load of these fast differentially-weighted PBMC simulations (based on the Markov jump model) is reduced greatly to be proportional to the number of simulation particles in a zero-dimensional system (single cell). Finally, for a spatially inhomogeneous multi-dimensional (multi-cell) simulation, the proposed fast PBMC is performed in each cell, and multiple cells are parallel processed by multi-cores on a GPU that can implement the massively threaded data-parallel tasks to obtain remarkable speedup ratio (comparing with CPU computation, the speedup ratio of GPU parallel computing is as high as 200 in a case of 100 cells with 10 000 simulation particles per cell). These accelerating approaches of PBMC are

  19. Energy balance in the solar transition region. I - Hydrostatic thermal models with ambipolar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontenla, J. M.; Avrett, E. H.; Loeser, R.

    1990-01-01

    The energy balance in the lower transition region is analyzed by constructing theoretical models which satisfy the energy balance constraint. The energy balance is achieved by balancing the radiative losses and the energy flowing downward from the corona. This energy flow is mainly in two forms: conductive heat flow and hydrogen ionization energy flow due to ambipolar diffusion. Hydrostatic equilibrium is assumed, and, in a first calculation, local mechanical heating and Joule heating are ignored. In a second model, some mechanical heating compatible with chromospheric energy-balance calculations is introduced. The models are computed for a partial non-LTE approach in which radiation departs strongly from LTE but particles depart from Maxwellian distributions only to first order. The results, which apply to cases where the magnetic field is either absent, or uniform and vertical, are compared with the observed Lyman lines and continuum from the average quiet sun. The approximate agreement suggests that this type of model can roughly explain the observed intensities in a physically meaningful way, assuming only a few free parameters specified as chromospheric boundary conditions.

  20. Sex in an uncertain world: environmental stochasticity helps restore competitive balance between sexually and asexually reproducing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, A W; Vandekerkhove, J; Michalakis, Y

    2014-08-01

    Like many organisms, individuals of the freshwater ostracod species Eucypris virens exhibit either obligate sexual or asexual reproductive modes. Both types of individual routinely co-occur, including in the same temporary freshwater pond (their natural habitat in which they undergo seasonal diapause). Given the well-known two-fold cost of sex, this begs the question of how sexually reproducing individuals are able to coexist with their asexual counterparts in spite of such overwhelming costs. Environmental stochasticity in the form of 'false dawn' inundations (where the first hydration is ephemeral and causes loss of early hatching individuals) may provide an advantage to the sexual subpopulation, which shows greater variation in hatching times following inundation. We explore the potential role of environmental stochasticity in this system using life-history data analysis, climate data, and matrix projection models. In the absence of environmental stochasticity, the population growth rate is significantly lower in sexual subpopulations. Climate data reveal that 'false dawn' inundations are common. Using matrix projection modelling with and without environmental stochasticity, we demonstrate that this phenomenon can restore appreciable balance to the system, in terms of population growth rates. This provides support for the role of environmental stochasticity in helping to explain the maintenance of sex and the occurrence of geographical parthenogenesis. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  1. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  2. Modeling and simulating an electrical grid subsystem for power balance analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Totu, Luminita Cristiana; Leth, John-Josef; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach for power balance analysis in Smart Grids where the physical behavior of different electrical devices is modeled at unit level, and the collective load and generation curves can later be obtained by aggregation. In this way, new behaviors, flexibilities and intelligent...... strategies for power consumption and generation can be easily introduced at the user-level and the system-level impact analyzed on the aggregated profiles. The future aim is to investigate bottom-up balancing strategies, where units with a flexible energy band can react independently to power balance signals...

  3. Hydrodynamics of Bubble Columns: Turbulence and Population Balance Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Braga Vieira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an in-depth numerical analysis on the hydrodynamics of a bubble column. As in previous works on the subject, the focus here is on three important parameters characterizing the flow: interfacial forces, turbulence and inlet superficial Gas Velocity (UG. The bubble size distribution is taken into account by the use of the Quadrature Method of Moments (QMOM model in a two-phase Euler-Euler approach using the open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code OpenFOAM (Open Field Operation and Manipulation. The interfacial forces accounted for in all the simulations presented here are drag, lift and virtual mass. For the turbulence analysis in the water phase, three versions of the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS k-ε turbulence model are examined: namely, the standard, modified and mixture variants. The lift force proves to be of major importance for a trustworthy prediction of the gas volume fraction profiles for all the (superficial gas velocities tested. Concerning the turbulence, the mixture k-ε model is seen to provide higher values of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in comparison to the other models, and this clearly affects the prediction of the gas volume fraction in the bulk region, and the bubble-size distribution. In general, the modified k-ε model proves to be a good compromise between modeling simplicity and accuracy in the study of bubble columns of the kind undertaken here.

  4. Comparison between two models of energy balance in coronal loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Cormack, C.; López Fuentes, M.; Vásquez, A. M.; Nuevo, F. A.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.

    2017-10-01

    In this work we compare two models to analyze the energy balance along coronal magnetic loops. For the first stationary model we deduce an expression of the energy balance along the loops expressed in terms of quantities provided by the combination of differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) applied to EUV images time series and potential extrapolations of the coronal magnetic field. The second applied model is a 0D hydrodynamic model that provides the evolution of the average properties of the coronal plasma along the loops, using as input parameters the loop length and the heating rate obtained with the first model. We compare the models for two Carrington rotations (CR) corresponding to different periods of activity: CR 2081, corresponding to a period of minimum activity observed with the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) on board of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and CR 2099, corresponding to a period of activity increase observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The results of the models are consistent for both rotations.

  5. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  6. Effects of dynamic posturographic balance training versus conventional balance training on mobility and balance in elderly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saddiqi, F.A.; Masood, T.

    2017-01-01

    To determine the effects of dynamic posturographic balance training versus conventional balance training in improving mobility and balance in elderly. Methodology: Forty subjects between 50 to 80 years of age were selected via non-probability convenience sampling technique, for this randomized controlled trial. Both females and males with no major co-morbid conditions and cognitive impairments were recruited and randomized via coin toss method into two equal groups: Dynamic Posturographic balance training (DPG) group and Conventional balance training (CBT) group. The DPG training was provided via Biodex Balance System (Static and Dynamic). Both groups received interventions 3 times (35 to 45min each day) a week for 8 weeks, after which terminal assessment was done. Data were collected on demographic profile, balance via berg balance score and mobility by using Timed Up and Go Test. Independent samples t test was used to check difference between CBT group and DPG Group and repeated measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used for within-group analysis. Results: Baseline analysis of Berg balance scale and timed up and go test between two groups showed no significant difference with (p 0.805 and 0.251, respectively). After 8 weeks of intervention, there was significant difference between the groups in both variables (p 0.019 and 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Dynamic posturographic balance training was more effective in improving dynamic balance and mobility in elderly population in comparison to conventional balance training. (author)

  7. A well-balanced meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecht, Rüdiger; Bihlo, Alexander; MacLachlan, Scott; Behrens, Jörn

    2018-05-01

    We present a novel meshless tsunami propagation and inundation model. We discretize the nonlinear shallow-water equations using a well-balanced scheme relying on radial basis function based finite differences. For the inundation model, radial basis functions are used to extrapolate the dry region from nearby wet points. Numerical results against standard one- and two-dimensional benchmarks are presented.

  8. Balance ability measured with the Berg balance scale: a determinant of fall history in community-dwelling adults with leg amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Chen, Christine C; Blackwell, Wren M; Rahal, Rana T; Benoy, Stephany A

    2015-01-01

    Falls are common among adults with leg amputations and associated with balance confidence. But subjective confidence is not equivalent with physical ability. This multivariate analyses of community-dwelling adults with leg amputations examined relationships among individual characteristics, falls, balance ability and balance confidence. Cross-sectional study. Community-dwelling adults with leg amputations recruited from a support group and prosthetic clinic. Subjects provided self-reported medical/fall history, prosthetic functional use, and Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) questionnaire data. Balance ability was assessed with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS). Fall incidence was categorized as any fall (one or more) and recurrent falls (more than one). Multivariate logistic regression analyzed relationships within the two fall categories. Cross tabulations and ANOVA analyzed differences among subcategories. Fifty-four subjects (mean age 56.8) with various etiologies, amputation levels, and balance abilities participated. 53.7% had any fall; 25.9% had recurrent falls. Models for both fall categories correctly classified fall history in > 70% of subjects with combinations of the variables ABC, BBS, body-mass-index, and amputation level. Falls occurred regardless of clinical characteristics. Total BBS and select item scores were independent determinants of fall history. Unlike other balance-impaired populations, adults with leg amputation and better balance ability had greater odds of falling.

  9. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Weight transfer functions for Monte Carlo simulation of coagulation. → Efficient support for single-particle growth processes. → Comparisons to analytic solutions and soot formation problems. → Better numerical accuracy for less common particles. - Abstract: A class of coagulation weight transfer functions is constructed, each member of which leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. These algorithms are based on systems of weighted computational particles and the weight transfer functions are constructed such that the number of computational particles does not change during coagulation events. The algorithms also facilitate the simulation of physical processes that change single particles, such as growth, or other surface reactions. Four members of the algorithm family have been numerically validated by comparison to analytic solutions to simple problems. Numerical experiments have been performed for complex laminar premixed flame systems in which members of the class of stochastic weighted particle methods were compared to each other and to a direct simulation algorithm. Two of the weighted algorithms have been shown to offer performance advantages over the direct simulation algorithm in situations where interest is focused on the larger particles in a system. The extent of this advantage depends on the particular system and on the quantities of interest.

  10. Weak Memory Models: Balancing Definitional Simplicity and Implementation Flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Sizhuo; Vijayaraghavan, Muralidaran; Arvind

    2017-01-01

    The memory model for RISC-V, a newly developed open source ISA, has not been finalized yet and thus, offers an opportunity to evaluate existing memory models. We believe RISC-V should not adopt the memory models of POWER or ARM, because their axiomatic and operational definitions are too complicated. We propose two new weak memory models: WMM and WMM-S, which balance definitional simplicity and implementation flexibility differently. Both allow all instruction reorderings except overtaking of...

  11. The balanced scorecard: an incremental approach model to health care management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineno, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    The balanced scorecard represents a technique used in strategic management to translate an organization's mission and strategy into a comprehensive set of performance measures that provide the framework for implementation of strategic management. This article develops an incremental approach for decision making by formulating a specific balanced scorecard model with an index of nonfinancial as well as financial measures. The incremental approach to costs, including profit contribution analysis and probabilities, allows decisionmakers to assess, for example, how their desire to meet different health care needs will cause changes in service design. This incremental approach to the balanced scorecard may prove to be useful in evaluating the existence of causality relationships between different objective and subjective measures to be included within the balanced scorecard.

  12. Model Engine Performance Measurement From Force Balance Instrumentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeracki, Robert J.

    1998-01-01

    A large scale model representative of a low-noise, high bypass ratio turbofan engine was tested for acoustics and performance in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel. This test was part of NASA's continuing Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program. The low tip speed fan, nacelle, and an un-powered core passage (with core inlet guide vanes) were simulated. The fan blades and hub are mounted on a rotating thrust and torque balance. The nacelle, bypass duct stators, and core passage are attached to a six component force balance. The two balance forces, when corrected for internal pressure tares, measure the total thrust-minus-drag of the engine simulator. Corrected for scaling and other effects, it is basically the same force that the engine supports would feel, operating at similar conditions. A control volume is shown and discussed, identifying the various force components of the engine simulator thrust and definitions of net thrust. Several wind tunnel runs with nearly the same hardware installed are compared, to identify the repeatability of the measured thrust-minus-drag. Other wind tunnel runs, with hardware changes that affected fan performance, are compared to the baseline configuration, and the thrust and torque effects are shown. Finally, a thrust comparison between the force balance and nozzle gross thrust methods is shown, and both yield very similar results.

  13. Oral administration of kefiran induces changes in the balance of immune cells in a murine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medrano, Micaela; Racedo, Silvia M; Rolny, Ivanna S; Abraham, Analía G; Pérez, Pablo F

    2011-05-25

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the oral administration of kefiran on the balance of immune cells in a murine model. Six week old BALB/c mice were treated with kefiran (300 mg/L) for 0, 2 and 7 days. Kefiran treatment increased the number of IgA+ cells in lamina propria after 2 and 7 days. Percentage of B220+/MHCII(high) cells in mesenteric lymph nodes (2 days) and Peyer's patches (7 days) was higher compared to untreated control mice. An increase of macrophages (F4/80+ cells) was observed in lamina propria and peritoneal cavity (2 and 7 days). In contrast, at day 7, macrophage population decreased in Peyer's patches. These results show the ability of kefiran to modify the balance of immune cells in intestinal mucosa. This property could be highly relevant for the comprehension of the probiotic effect attributed to kefir.

  14. Multidimensional Balanced Efficiency Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Petrillo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a multicriteria methodological approach, based on Balanced Scorecard (BSC and Analytic Network Process (ANP, is proposed to evaluate competitiveness performance in luxury sector. A set of specific key performance indicators (KPIs have been proposed. The contribution of our paper is to present the integration of two methodologies, BSC – a multiple perspective framework for performance assessment – and ANP – a decision-making tool to prioritize multiple performance perspectives and indicators and to generate a unified metric that incorporates diversified issues for conducting supply chain improvements. The BSC/ANP model is used to prioritize all performances within a luxury industry. A real case study is presented.

  15. Altered excitatory-inhibitory balance in the NMDA-hypofunction model of schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Kehrer

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia is a common psychiatric disorder of high incidence, affecting approximately 1% of the world population. The essential neurotransmitter pathology of schizophrenia remains poorly defined, despite huge advances over the past half-century in identifying neurochemical and pathological abnormalities in the disease. The dopamine/serotonin hypothesis has originally provided much of the momentum for neurochemical research in schizophrenia. In recent years, the attention has, however, shifted to the glutamate system, the major excitatory neurotransmitter in the CNS and towards a concept of functional imbalance between excitatory and inhibitory transmission at the network level in various brain regions in schizophrenia. The evidence indicating a central role for the NMDAreceptor subtype in the etiology of schizophrenia has led to the NMDA-hypofunction model of this disease and the use of phencyclidines as a means to induce the NMDA-hypofunction state in animal models. The purpose of this review is to discuss recent findings highlighting the importance of the NMDA-hypofunction model of schizophrenia, both from a clinical perspective, as well as in opening a line of research, which enables electrophysiological studies at the cellular and network level in vitro. In particular, changes in excitation-inhibition (E/I balance in the NMDA-hypofunction model of the disease and the resulting changes in network behaviours, particularly in gamma frequency oscillatory activity, will be discussed.

  16. Rasch Analysis of the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, Roger C.; Rose, Debra J.

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: This cross-sectional study explores the psychometric properties and dimensionality of the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale, a multi-item balance test for higher-functioning older adults. Methods: Participants (n=480) were community-dwelling adults able to ambulate independently. Data gathering consisted of survey and balance performance assessment. Psychometric properties were assessed using Rasch analysis. Results: Mean age of participants was 76.4 (SD=7.1) years. Mean FAB Scale scores were 24.7/40 (SD=7.5). Analyses for scale dimensionality showed that 9 of the 10 items fit a unidimensional measure of balance. Item 10 (Reactive Postural Control) did not fit the model. The reliability of the scale to separate persons was 0.81 out of 1.00; the reliability of the scale to separate items in terms of their difficulty was 0.99 out of 1.00. Cronbach's alpha for a 10-item model was 0.805. Items of differing difficulties formed a useful ordinal hierarchy for scaling patterns of expected balance ability scoring for a normative population. Conclusion: The FAB Scale appears to be a reliable and valid tool to assess balance function in higher-functioning older adults. The test was found to discriminate among participants of varying balance abilities. Further exploration of concurrent validity of Rasch-generated expected item scoring patterns should be undertaken to determine the test's diagnostic and prescriptive utility. PMID:22210989

  17. Rasch Analysis of the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Penelope J; Fiedler, Roger C; Rose, Debra J

    2011-01-01

    This cross-sectional study explores the psychometric properties and dimensionality of the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) Scale, a multi-item balance test for higher-functioning older adults. Participants (n=480) were community-dwelling adults able to ambulate independently. Data gathering consisted of survey and balance performance assessment. Psychometric properties were assessed using Rasch analysis. Mean age of participants was 76.4 (SD=7.1) years. Mean FAB Scale scores were 24.7/40 (SD=7.5). Analyses for scale dimensionality showed that 9 of the 10 items fit a unidimensional measure of balance. Item 10 (Reactive Postural Control) did not fit the model. The reliability of the scale to separate persons was 0.81 out of 1.00; the reliability of the scale to separate items in terms of their difficulty was 0.99 out of 1.00. Cronbach's alpha for a 10-item model was 0.805. Items of differing difficulties formed a useful ordinal hierarchy for scaling patterns of expected balance ability scoring for a normative population. The FAB Scale appears to be a reliable and valid tool to assess balance function in higher-functioning older adults. The test was found to discriminate among participants of varying balance abilities. Further exploration of concurrent validity of Rasch-generated expected item scoring patterns should be undertaken to determine the test's diagnostic and prescriptive utility.

  18. Spatially balanced topological interaction grants optimal cohesion in flocking models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camperi, Marcelo; Cavagna, Andrea; Giardina, Irene; Parisi, Giorgio; Silvestri, Edmondo

    2012-12-06

    Models of self-propelled particles (SPPs) are an indispensable tool to investigate collective animal behaviour. Originally, SPP models were proposed with metric interactions, where each individual coordinates with neighbours within a fixed metric radius. However, recent experiments on bird flocks indicate that interactions are topological: each individual interacts with a fixed number of neighbours, irrespective of their distance. It has been argued that topological interactions are more robust than metric ones against external perturbations, a significant evolutionary advantage for systems under constant predatory pressure. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing the stability of metric versus topological SPP models in three dimensions. We show that topological models are more stable than metric ones. We also show that a significantly better stability is achieved when neighbours are selected according to a spatially balanced topological rule, namely when interacting neighbours are evenly distributed in angle around the focal individual. Finally, we find that the minimal number of interacting neighbours needed to achieve fully stable cohesion in a spatially balanced model is compatible with the value observed in field experiments on starling flocks.

  19. Econometric modeling of the balance of social security Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Isaac Figueiredo de Sousa

    2009-01-01

    This work aims to build models using econometrics techniques to explain the components of the balance of Social Security System, or in other words, the net value of tax revenues and the benefit values of the General Regime of Social Security. These models were subjected to statistic validations indicated in the theoretical reference of econometrics, to apply the method of ordinary least square from the classic model of linear regression. From an increasing longevity and the gradual decr...

  20. Dirac-bracket aproach to nearly-geostrophic Hamiltonian balanced models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanneste, J.; Bokhove, Onno

    2002-01-01

    Dirac’s theory of constrained Hamiltonian systems is applied to derive the Poisson structure of a class of balanced models describing the slow dynamics of geophysical flows. Working with the Poisson structure, instead of the canonical Hamiltonian structure previously considered in this context,

  1. A Well-Balanced and Fully Coupled Noncapacity Model for Dam-Break Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyuan Yue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The last two decades have seen great progress in mathematical modeling of fluvial processes and flooding in terms of either approximation of the physical processes or dealing with the numerical difficulties. Yet attention to simultaneously taking advancements of both aspects is rarely paid. Here a well-balanced and fully coupled noncapacity model is presented of dam-break flooding over erodible beds. The governing equations are based on the complete mass and momentum conservation laws, implying fully coupled interactions between the dam-break flow and sediment transport. A well-balanced Godunov-type finite volume method is used to solve the governing equations, facilitating satisfactory representation of the complex flow phenomena. The well-balanced property is attained by using the divergence form of matrix related to the static force for the bottom slope source term. Existing classical tests, including idealized dam-break flooding over irregular topography and experimental dam-break flooding with/without sediment transport, are numerically simulated, showing a satisfactory quantitative performance of this model.

  2. Experimental Evaluation of Balance Prediction Models for Sit-to-Stand Movement in the Sagittal Plane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar David Pena Cabra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of balance control ability would become important in the rehabilitation training. In this paper, in order to make clear usefulness and limitation of a traditional simple inverted pendulum model in balance prediction in sit-to-stand movements, the traditional simple model was compared to an inertia (rotational radius variable inverted pendulum model including multiple-joint influence in the balance predictions. The predictions were tested upon experimentation with six healthy subjects. The evaluation showed that the multiple-joint influence model is more accurate in predicting balance under demanding sit-to-stand conditions. On the other hand, the evaluation also showed that the traditionally used simple inverted pendulum model is still reliable in predicting balance during sit-to-stand movement under non-demanding (normal condition. Especially, the simple model was shown to be effective for sit-to-stand movements with low center of mass velocity at the seat-off. Moreover, almost all trajectories under the normal condition seemed to follow the same control strategy, in which the subjects used extra energy than the minimum one necessary for standing up. This suggests that the safety considerations come first than the energy efficiency considerations during a sit to stand, since the most energy efficient trajectory is close to the backward fall boundary.

  3. BALANCED SCORE CARD MODEL EVALUATION: THE CASE OF AD BARSKA PLOVIDBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses creation of Balanced Scorecard, which includes environmental protection elements in AD Barska Plovidba. Firstly,the paper presents proposed models that include elements of conventional Balanced scorecard, and then we start with proposed models evaluation. In fact, as implementation and evaluation of the model in AD Barska Plovidba takes longer period of time, its evaluation and final choice is based on ISO 14598 and ISO 9126 with use of AHP method. Usually those standards are used for quality evaluation of software products, computer programs and databases inside organisation. After all, they serve as support for their development and acceptance because they provide quality evaluation during the phase when software is not yet implemented inside organistaion, what we assume as very important.

  4. Model Peranan Work Life Balance, Stres Kerja dan Kepuasan Kerja pada Karyawan

    OpenAIRE

    Nurendra, Annisaa Miranty; Saraswati, Mega Putri

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to measure the empirical model of work life balance, job stress and job satisfaction. Participants in this study were 119 employees who work on some hotels in Yogyakarta. Job satisfaction was measured using job satisfaction scale that was developed based on Luthans, b) work life balance was measured using work life balance scale that was developed based on Hudson and 3) job stress scale based on Beehr andNewman was used to measure job stress. Simple mediation anal...

  5. Signature of balancing selection at the MC1R gene in Kunming dog populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-dong Wang

    Full Text Available Coat color in dog breeds is an excellent character for revealing the power of artificial selection, as it is extremely diverse and likely the result of recent domestication. Coat color is generated by melanocytes, which synthesize pheomelanin (a red or yellow pigment or eumelanin (a black or brown pigment through the pigment type-switching pathway, and is regulated by three genes in dogs: MC1R (melanocortin receptor 1, CBD103 (β-defensin 103, and ASIP (agouti-signaling protein precursor. The genotypes of these three gene loci in dog breeds are associated with coat color pattern. Here, we resequenced these three gene loci in two Kunming dog populations and analyzed these sequences using population genetic approaches to identify evolutionary patterns that have occurred at these loci during the recent domestication and breeding of the Kunming dog. The analysis showed that MC1R undergoes balancing selection in both Kunming dog populations, and that the Fst value for MC1R indicates significant genetic differentiation across the two populations. In contrast, similar results were not observed for CBD103 or ASIP. These results suggest that high heterozygosity and allelic differences at the MC1R locus may explain both the mixed color coat, of yellow and black, and the difference in coat colors in both Kunming dog populations.

  6. Balance ability of 7 and 10 year old children in the population: results from a large UK birth cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphriss, Rachel; Hall, Amanda; May, Margaret; Macleod, John

    2011-01-01

    The literature contains many reports of balance function in children, but these are often on atypical samples taken from hospital-based clinics and may not be generalisable to the population as a whole. The purpose of the present study is to describe balance test results from a large UK-based birth cohort study. Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were analysed. A total of 5402 children completed the heel-to-toe walking test at age 7 years. At age 10 years, 6915 children underwent clinical tests of balance including beam-walking, standing heel-to-toe on a beam and standing on one leg. A proportion of the children returned to the clinic for retesting within 3 months allowing test-retest agreement to be measured. Frequency distributions for each of the balance tests are given. Correlations between measures of dynamic balance at ages 7 and 10 years were weak. The static balance of 10 year old children was found to be poorer with eyes closed than with eyes open, and poorer in boys than in girls for all measures. Balance on one leg was poorer than heel-to-toe balance on a beam. A significant learning effect was found when first and second attempts of the tests were compared. Measures of static and dynamic balance appeared independent. Consistent with previous reports in the literature, test-retest reliability was found to be low. This study provides information about the balance ability of children aged 7 and 10 years and provides clinicians with reference data for balance tests commonly used in the paediatric clinic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Modeling Regional Soil Water Balance in Farmland of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying components of soil water balance in farmland of the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin is essential for efficiently scheduling and allocating limited water resources for irrigation in this arid region. A soil water balance model based on empirical assumptions in the vadose zone of farmland was developed and simulation results were compared/validated with results by the numerical model HYDRUS-1D. Results showed a good coherence between the simulated results of the water balance models and the HYDRUS-1D model in soil water storage, evapotranspiration, deep percolation and groundwater recharge, which indicated that the water balance model was suitable for simulating soil water movement in the study area. Considering the spatial distribution of cropping patterns, groundwater depth and agricultural management, ArcGIS was applied for the pre-/post-processing of the water balance model to quantify the spatial distribution of components of soil water balance in the major cropland in middle reaches of Heihe River Basin. Then, distributions of components of soil water balance in the major cropland under different water-saving irrigation practices during the growing season were predicted and discussed. Simulation results demonstrated that evapotranspiration of the main crops would be more prominently influenced by irrigation quota under deep groundwater depth than that under shallow groundwater depth. Groundwater recharge would increase with the increase of irrigation quota and decrease with the increase of groundwater depth. In general, when groundwater depth reached 3 m, groundwater recharge from root zone was negligible for spring wheat. While when it reached 6 m, groundwater recharge was negligible for maize. Water-saving irrigation practices would help to reduce groundwater recharge with a slight decrease of crop water consumption.

  8. Mass Balance Modelling of Saskatchewan Glacier, Canada Using Empirically Downscaled Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larouche, O.; Kinnard, C.; Demuth, M. N.

    2017-12-01

    Observations show that glaciers around the world are retreating. As sites with long-term mass balance observations are scarce, models are needed to reconstruct glacier mass balance and assess its sensitivity to climate. In regions with discontinuous and/or sparse meteorological data, high-resolution climate reanalysis data provide a convenient alternative to in situ weather observations, but can also suffer from strong bias due to the spatial and temporal scale mismatch. In this study we used data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project with a 30 x 30 km spatial resolution and 3-hour temporal resolution to produce the meteorological forcings needed to drive a physically-based, distributed glacier mass balance model (DEBAM, Hock and Holmgren 2005) for the historical period 1979-2016. A two-year record from an automatic weather station (AWS) operated on Saskatchewan Glacier (2014-2016) was used to downscale air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and incoming solar radiation from the nearest NARR gridpoint to the glacier AWS site. An homogenized historical precipitation record was produced using data from two nearby, low-elevation weather stations and used to downscale the NARR precipitation data. Three bias correction methods were applied (scaling, delta and empirical quantile mapping - EQM) and evaluated using split sample cross-validation. The EQM method gave better results for precipitation and for air temperature. Only a slight improvement in the relative humidity was obtained using the scaling method, while none of the methods improved the wind speed. The later correlates poorly with AWS observations, probably because the local glacier wind is decoupled from the larger scale NARR wind field. The downscaled data was used to drive the DEBAM model in order to reconstruct the mass balance of Saskatchewan Glacier over the past 30 years. The model was validated using recent snow thickness measurements and previously published geodetic mass

  9. Task oriented training improves the balance outcome & reducing fall risk in diabetic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazal, Javeria; Malik, Arshad Nawaz; Amjad, Imran

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to determine the balance impairments and to compare task oriented versus traditional balance training in fall reduction among diabetic patients. The randomized control trial with descriptive survey and 196 diabetic patients were recruited to assess balance impairments through purposive sampling technique. Eighteen patients were randomly allocated into two groups; task oriented balance training group TOB (n=8) and traditional balance training group TBT (n=10). The inclusion criteria were 30-50 years age bracket and diagnosed cases of Diabetes Mellitus with neuropathy. The demographics were taken through standardized & valid assessment tools include Berg Balance Scale and Functional Reach Test. The measurements were obtained at baseline, after 04 and 08 weeks of training. The mean age of the participants was 49 ±6.79. The result shows that 165(84%) were at moderate risk of fall and 31(15%) were at mild risk of fall among total 196 diabetic patients. There was significant improvement (p balance training group for dynamic balance, anticipatory balance and reactive balance after 8 weeks of training as compare to traditional balance training. Task oriented balance training is effective in improving the dynamic, anticipator and reactive balance. The task oriented training reduces the risk of falling through enhancing balance outcome.

  10. Development and preliminary analyses of material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumura, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    Material balance evaluation model in nuclear fuel cycle has been developed using ORIGEN-2 code as basic engine. This model has feature of: It can treat more than 1000 nuclides including minor actinides and fission products. It has flexibility of modeling and graph output using a engineering work station. I made preliminary calculation of LWR fuel high burnup effect (reloading fuel average burnup of 60 GWd/t) on nuclear fuel cycle. The preliminary calculation shows LWR fuel high burnup has much effect on Japanese Pu balance problem. (author)

  11. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  12. A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL-II FOR WORK-LIFE BALANCE OF IT PROFESSIONALS IN CHENNAI

    OpenAIRE

    Rashida A. Banu

    2016-01-01

    The study developed and tested a model of work life balance of IT professionals employing structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze the relationship between work place support (WPS) and work interference with personal life (WIPL), personal life interference with work (PLIW), satisfaction with work-life balance (SWLB) and improved effectiveness at work (IEW). The model fit the data well and hypotheses are generally supported. WPS and SWLB are negatively related to WIPL and P...

  13. Thermal Storage Power Balancing with Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    The method described in this paper balances power production and consumption with a large number of thermal loads. Linear controllers are used for the loads to track a temperature set point, while Model Predictive Control (MPC) and model estimation of the load behavior are used for coordination....... The total power consumption of all loads is controlled indirectly through a real-time price. The MPC incorporates forecasts of the power production and disturbances that influence the loads, e.g. time-varying weather forecasts, in order to react ahead of time. A simulation scenario demonstrates...

  14. Optimizing Intermodal Train Schedules with a Design Balanced Network Design Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Berliner; Crainic, Teodor Gabriel

    We present a modeling approach for optimizing intermodal trains schedules based on an infrastructure divided into time-dependent train paths. The formulation can be generalized to a capacitated multi commodity network design model with additional design balance constraints. We present a Tabu Search...

  15. When growth and photosynthesis don't match: implications for carbon balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlyn, B.; Mahmud, K.; Duursma, R.; Pfautsch, S.; Campany, C.

    2017-12-01

    Most models of terrestrial plant growth are based on the principle of carbon balance: that growth can be predicted from net uptake of carbon via photosynthesis. A key criticism leveled at these models by plant physiologists is that there are many circumstances in which plant growth appears to be independent of photosynthesis: for example, during the onset of drought, or with rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. A crucial problem for terrestrial carbon cycle models is to develop better representations of plant carbon balance when there is a mismatch between growth and photosynthesis. Here we present two studies providing insight into this mismatch. In the first, effects of root restriction on plant growth were examined by comparing Eucalyptus tereticornis seedlings growing in containers of varying sizes with freely-rooted seedlings. Root restriction caused a reduction in photosynthesis, but this reduction was insufficient to explain the even larger reduction observed in growth. We applied data assimilation to a simple carbon balance model to quantify the response of carbon balance as a whole in this experiment. We inferred that, in addition to photosynthesis, there are significant effects of root restriction on growth respiration, carbon allocation, and carbohydrate utilization. The second study was carried out at the EucFACE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment. At this experiment, photosynthesis of the overstorey trees is increased with enriched CO2, but there is no significant effect on above-ground productivity. These mature trees have reached their maximum height but are at significant risk of canopy loss through disturbance, and we hypothesized that additional carbon taken up through photosynthesis is preferentially allocated to storage rather than growth. We tested this hypothesis by measuring stemwood non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) during a psyllid outbreak that completely defoliated the canopy in 2015. There was a significant drawdown of NSC during

  16. Modelling raster-based monthly water balance components for Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulmen, C.

    2000-11-01

    The terrestrial runoff component is a comparatively small but sensitive and thus significant quantity in the global energy and water cycle at the interface between landmass and atmosphere. As opposed to soil moisture and evapotranspiration which critically determine water vapour fluxes and thus water and energy transport, it can be measured as an integrated quantity over a large area, i.e. the river basin. This peculiarity makes terrestrial runoff ideally suited for the calibration, verification and validation of general circulation models (GCMs). Gauging stations are not homogeneously distributed in space. Moreover, time series are not necessarily continuously measured nor do they in general have overlapping time periods. To overcome this problems with regard to regular grid spacing used in GCMs, different methods can be applied to transform irregular data to regular so called gridded runoff fields. The present work aims to directly compute the gridded components of the monthly water balance (including gridded runoff fields) for Europe by application of the well-established raster-based macro-scale water balance model WABIMON used at the Federal Institute of Hydrology, Germany. Model calibration and validation is performed by separated examination of 29 representative European catchments. Results indicate a general applicability of the model delivering reliable overall patterns and integrated quantities on a monthly basis. For time steps less then too weeks further research and structural improvements of the model are suggested. (orig.)

  17. The social balance sheet 2004

    OpenAIRE

    Ph. Delhez; P. Heuse

    2005-01-01

    Each year, in the 4th quarter’s Economic Review, the National Bank examines the provisional results of the social balance sheets. As all the social balance sheets are not yet available for 2004, the study is based on a limited population of enterprises, compiled according to the principle of a constant sample. This population is made up of 38,530 enterprises employing around 1,331,000 workers in 2004. The main results of the analysis, in terms of employment, working hours, labour cost and tra...

  18. Balanced scorecard model for Paulinian educational institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sr. Evangeline Lorenzo Anastacio

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The researcher aimed to come up with a mission-centered strategic management system for Paulinian schools using the Balanced Scorecard (BSC approach. To achieve this project, a consensus was derived from 39 schools in the Philippines run by the Sisters of St. Paul of Chartres (SPC using the Delphi technique. The resulting BSC model included five perspectives, namely, spirituality, internal processes, learner and external community, learning organization, and fiscal resources perspectives. Strategic objectives with the corresponding key performance indicators (KPIs were identified. Unique to the resulting BSC model is the inclusion of spirituality perspective which ensures the conscious infusion of long-lasting values in all aspects of the school.

  19. Interchangeability of the Wii Balance Board for Bipedal Balance Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnechère, Bruno; Jansen, Bart; Omelina, Lubos; Rooze, Marcel; Van Sint Jan, Serge

    2015-08-27

    Since 2010, an increasing interest in more portable and flexible hardware for balance and posture assessment led to previously published studies determining whether or not the Wii Balance Board could be used to assess balance and posture, both scientifically and clinically. However, no previous studies aimed at comparing results from different Wii Balance Boards for clinical balance evaluation exist. The objective of this crossover study is to assess the interchangeability of the Wii Balance Board. A total of 6 subjects participated in the study and their balance was assessed using 4 different Wii Balance Boards. Trials were recorded simultaneously with Wii Balance Boards and with a laboratory force plate. Nine relevant clinical parameters were derived from center of pressure displacement data obtained from Wii Balance Board and force plate systems. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), F tests, and Friedman tests were computed to assess the agreement between trials and to compare the Wii Balance Board and force plate results. Excellent correlations were found between the Wii Balance Board and force plate (mean ρ =.83). With the exception of 2 parameters, strong to excellent agreements were found for the 7 remaining parameters (ICC=.96). No significant differences were found between trials recorded with different Wii Balance Boards. Our results indicate that for most of the parameters analyzed, balance and posture assessed with one Wii Balance Board were statistically similar to results obtained from another. Furthermore, the good correlation between the Wii Balance Board and force plate results shows that Wii Balance Boards can be reliably used for scientific assessment using most of the parameters analyzed in this study. These results also suggest that the Wii Balance Board could be used in multicenter studies and therefore, would allow for the creation of larger populations for clinical studies. Ethical Committee of the Erasme Hospital (CCB B406201215142

  20. A moment projection method for population balance dynamics with a shrinkage term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Shaohua [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Yapp, Edward K.Y.; Akroyd, Jethro; Mosbach, Sebastian [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Xu, Rong [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore); Yang, Wenming [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore)

    2017-02-01

    A new method of moments for solving the population balance equation is developed and presented. The moment projection method (MPM) is numerically simple and easy to implement and attempts to address the challenge of particle shrinkage due to processes such as oxidation, evaporation or dissolution. It directly solves the moment transport equation for the moments and tracks the number of the smallest particles using the algorithm by Blumstein and Wheeler (1973) . The performance of the new method is measured against the method of moments (MOM) and the hybrid method of moments (HMOM). The results suggest that MPM performs much better than MOM and HMOM where shrinkage is dominant. The new method predicts mean quantities which are almost as accurate as a high-precision stochastic method calculated using the established direct simulation algorithm (DSA).

  1. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large-scale ice sheet models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Goeller

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available There is currently no doubt about the existence of a widespread hydrological network under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux–basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  2. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

    2012-12-01

    There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  3. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  4. Assessment of structural model and parameter uncertainty with a multi-model system for soil water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalik, Thomas; Multsch, Sebastian; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Water for agriculture is strongly limited in arid and semi-arid regions and often of low quality in terms of salinity. The application of saline waters for irrigation increases the salt load in the rooting zone and has to be managed by leaching to maintain a healthy soil, i.e. to wash out salts by additional irrigation. Dynamic simulation models are helpful tools to calculate the root zone water fluxes and soil salinity content in order to investigate best management practices. However, there is little information on structural and parameter uncertainty for simulations regarding the water and salt balance of saline irrigation. Hence, we established a multi-model system with four different models (AquaCrop, RZWQM, SWAP, Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM) to analyze the structural and parameter uncertainty by using the Global Likelihood and Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM and SWAP were set up with multiple sets of different implemented functions (e.g. matric and osmotic stress for root water uptake) which results in a broad range of different model structures. The simulations were evaluated against soil water and salinity content observations. The posterior distribution of the GLUE analysis gives behavioral parameters sets and reveals uncertainty intervals for parameter uncertainty. Throughout all of the model sets, most parameters accounting for the soil water balance show a low uncertainty, only one or two out of five to six parameters in each model set displays a high uncertainty (e.g. pore-size distribution index in SWAP and Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM). The differences between the models and model setups reveal the structural uncertainty. The highest structural uncertainty is observed for deep percolation fluxes between the model sets of Hydrus1D/UNSATCHEM (~200 mm) and RZWQM (~500 mm) that are more than twice as high for the latter. The model sets show a high variation in uncertainty intervals for deep percolation as well, with an interquartile range (IQR) of

  5. Computerized heat balance models to predict performance of operating nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breeding, C.L.; Carter, J.C.; Schaefer, R.C.

    1983-01-01

    The use of computerized heat balance models has greatly enhanced the decision making ability of TVA's Division of Nuclear Power. These models are utilized to predict the effects of various operating modes and to analyze changes in plant performance resulting from turbine cycle equipment modifications with greater speed and accuracy than was possible before. Computer models have been successfully used to optimize plant output by predicting the effects of abnormal condenser circulating water conditions. They were utilized to predict the degradation in performance resulting from installation of a baffle plate assembly to replace damaged low-pressure blading, thereby providing timely information allowing an optimal economic judgement as to when to replace the blading. Future use will be for routine performance test analysis. This paper presents the benefits of utility use of computerized heat balance models

  6. Visualizing Experimental Designs for Balanced ANOVA Models using Lisp-Stat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip W. Iversen

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The structure, or Hasse, diagram described by Taylor and Hilton (1981, American Statistician provides a visual display of the relationships between factors for balanced complete experimental designs. Using the Hasse diagram, rules exist for determining the appropriate linear model, ANOVA table, expected means squares, and F-tests in the case of balanced designs. This procedure has been implemented in Lisp-Stat using a software representation of the experimental design. The user can interact with the Hasse diagram to add, change, or delete factors and see the effect on the proposed analysis. The system has potential uses in teaching and consulting.

  7. A January angular momentum balance in the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.-W.; Grady, W.

    1982-01-01

    The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of the atmospheric angular momentum balance, based on the simulation data of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). An attempt is also made to gain an understanding of the involved processes. Preliminary results on the angular momentum and mass balance in the AGCM are shown. The basic equations are examined, and questions of turbulent momentum transfer are investigated. The methods of analysis are discussed, taking into account time-averaged balance equations, time and longitude-averaged balance equations, mean meridional circulation, the mean meridional balance of relative angular momentum, and standing and transient components of motion.

  8. Evaluation of alternative model-data fusion approaches in water balance estimation across Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.

    2009-04-01

    Australia's national agencies are developing a continental modelling system to provide a range of water information services. It will include rolling water balance estimation to underpin national water accounts, water resources assessments that interpret current water resources availability and trends in a historical context, and water resources predictions coupled to climate and weather forecasting. The nation-wide coverage, currency, accuracy, and consistency required means that remote sensing will need to play an important role along with in-situ observations. Different approaches to blending models and observations can be considered. Integration of on-ground and remote sensing data into land surface models in atmospheric applications often involves state updating through model-data assimilation techniques. By comparison, retrospective water balance estimation and hydrological scenario modelling to date has mostly relied on static parameter fitting against observations and has made little use of earth observation. The model-data fusion approach most appropriate for a continental water balance estimation system will need to consider the trade-off between computational overhead and the accuracy gains achieved when using more sophisticated synthesis techniques and additional observations. This trade-off was investigated using a landscape hydrological model and satellite-based estimates of soil moisture and vegetation properties for aseveral gauged test catchments in southeast Australia.

  9. Dynamic Balance of Excitation and Inhibition in Human and Monkey Neocortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghani, Nima; Peyrache, Adrien; Telenczuk, Bartosz; Le van Quyen, Michel; Halgren, Eric; Cash, Sydney S.; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Destexhe, Alain

    2016-03-01

    Balance of excitation and inhibition is a fundamental feature of in vivo network activity and is important for its computations. However, its presence in the neocortex of higher mammals is not well established. We investigated the dynamics of excitation and inhibition using dense multielectrode recordings in humans and monkeys. We found that in all states of the wake-sleep cycle, excitatory and inhibitory ensembles are well balanced, and co-fluctuate with slight instantaneous deviations from perfect balance, mostly in slow-wave sleep. Remarkably, these correlated fluctuations are seen for many different temporal scales. The similarity of these computational features with a network model of self-generated balanced states suggests that such balanced activity is essentially generated by recurrent activity in the local network and is not due to external inputs. Finally, we find that this balance breaks down during seizures, where the temporal correlation of excitatory and inhibitory populations is disrupted. These results show that balanced activity is a feature of normal brain activity, and break down of the balance could be an important factor to define pathological states.

  10. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  11. Modeling real-time balancing power demands in wind power systems using stochastic differential equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Magnus; Perninge, Magnus; Soeder, Lennart

    2010-01-01

    The inclusion of wind power into power systems has a significant impact on the demand for real-time balancing power due to the stochastic nature of wind power production. The overall aim of this paper is to present probabilistic models of the impact of large-scale integration of wind power on the continuous demand in MW for real-time balancing power. This is important not only for system operators, but also for producers and consumers since they in most systems through various market solutions provide balancing power. Since there can occur situations where the wind power variations cancel out other types of deviations in the system, models on an hourly basis are not sufficient. Therefore the developed model is in continuous time and is based on stochastic differential equations (SDE). The model can be used within an analytical framework or in Monte Carlo simulations. (author)

  12. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  13. Modelling the snowmelt and the snow water equivalent by creating a simplified energy balance conceptual snow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboust, Philippe; Thirel, Guillaume; Le Moine, Nicolas; Ribstein, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    A better knowledge of the accumulated snow on the watersheds will help flood forecasting centres and hydro-power companies to predict the amount of water released during spring snowmelt. Since precipitations gauges are sparse at high elevations and integrative measurements of the snow accumulated on watershed surface are hard to obtain, using snow models is an adequate way to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) on watersheds. In addition to short term prediction, simulating accurately SWE with snow models should have many advantages. Validating the snow module on both SWE and snowmelt should give a more reliable model for climate change studies or regionalization for ungauged watersheds. The aim of this study is to create a new snow module, which has a structure that allows the use of measured snow data for calibration or assimilation. Energy balance modelling seems to be the logical choice for designing a model in which internal variables, such as SWE, could be compared to observations. Physical models are complex, needing high computational resources and many different types of inputs that are not widely measured at meteorological stations. At the opposite, simple conceptual degree-day models offer to simulate snowmelt using only temperature and precipitation as inputs with fast computing. Its major drawback is to be empirical, i.e. not taking into account all of the processes of the energy balance, which makes this kind of model more difficult to use when willing to compare SWE to observed measurements. In order to reach our objectives, we created a snow model structured by a simplified energy balance where each of the processes is empirically parameterized in order to be calculated using only temperature, precipitation and cloud cover variables. This model's structure is similar to the one created by M.T. Walter (2005), where parameterizations from the literature were used to compute all of the processes of the energy balance. The conductive fluxes into the

  14. Global Existence Analysis of Cross-Diffusion Population Systems for Multiple Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuqing; Daus, Esther S.; Jüngel, Ansgar

    2018-02-01

    The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to reaction-cross-diffusion systems for an arbitrary number of competing population species is proved. The equations can be derived from an on-lattice random-walk model with general transition rates. In the case of linear transition rates, it extends the two-species population model of Shigesada, Kawasaki, and Teramoto. The equations are considered in a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. The existence proof is based on a refined entropy method and a new approximation scheme. Global existence follows under a detailed balance or weak cross-diffusion condition. The detailed balance condition is related to the symmetry of the mobility matrix, which mirrors Onsager's principle in thermodynamics. Under detailed balance (and without reaction) the entropy is nonincreasing in time, but counter-examples show that the entropy may increase initially if detailed balance does not hold.

  15. Comparison of Four Different Energy Balance Models for Estimating Evapotranspiration in the Midwestern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh K. Singh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of different energy balance models has allowed users to choose a model based on its suitability in a region. We compared four commonly used models—Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC model, Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL model, Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model, and the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop model—using Landsat images to estimate evapotranspiration (ET in the Midwestern United States. Our models validation using three AmeriFlux cropland sites at Mead, Nebraska, showed that all four models captured the spatial and temporal variation of ET reasonably well with an R2 of more than 0.81. Both the METRIC and SSEBop models showed a low root mean square error (<0.93 mm·day−1 and a high Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (>0.80, whereas the SEBAL and SEBS models resulted in relatively higher bias for estimating daily ET. The empirical equation of daily average net radiation used in the SEBAL and SEBS models for upscaling instantaneous ET to daily ET resulted in underestimation of daily ET, particularly when the daily average net radiation was more than 100 W·m−2. Estimated daily ET for both cropland and grassland had some degree of linearity with METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS, but linearity was stronger for evaporative fraction. Thus, these ET models have strengths and limitations for applications in water resource management.

  16. Models and Tabu Search Metaheuristics for Service Network Design with Asset-Balance Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Berliner; Crainic, T.G.; Madsen, Oli B.G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on a generic model for service network design, which includes asset positioning and utilization through constraints on asset availability at terminals. We denote these relations as "design-balance constraints" and focus on the design-balanced capacitated multicommodity network...... design model, a generalization of the capacitated multicommodity network design model generally used in service network design applications. Both arc-and cycle-based formulations for the new model are presented. The paper also proposes a tabu search metaheuristic framework for the arc-based formulation....... Results on a wide range of network design problem instances from the literature indicate the proposed method behaves very well in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality....

  17. SASSYS-1 balance-of-plant component models for an integrated plant response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, J.-Y.

    1989-01-01

    Models of power plant heat transfer components and rotating machinery have been added to the balance-of-plant model in the SASSYS-1 liquid metal reactor systems analysis code. This work is part of a continuing effort in plant network simulation based on the general mathematical models developed. The models described in this paper extend the scope of the balance-of-plant model to handle non-adiabatic conditions along flow paths. While the mass and momentum equations remain the same, the energy equation now contains a heat source term due to energy transfer across the flow boundary or to work done through a shaft. The heat source term is treated fully explicitly. In addition, the equation of state is rewritten in terms of the quality and separate parameters for each phase. The models are simple enough to run quickly, yet include sufficient detail of dominant plant component characteristics to provide accurate results. 5 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs

  18. A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL-II FOR WORK-LIFE BALANCE OF IT PROFESSIONALS IN CHENNAI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashida A. Banu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The study developed and tested a model of work life balance of IT professionals employing structural equation modeling (SEM to analyze the relationship between work place support (WPS and work interference with personal life (WIPL, personal life interference with work (PLIW, satisfaction with work-life balance (SWLB and improved effectiveness at work (IEW. The model fit the data well and hypotheses are generally supported. WPS and SWLB are negatively related to WIPL and PLIW. However, there is a positive relationship between SWLB and IEW.

  19. Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2012-01-01

    A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...... by using the concept and properties of the reciprocal systems. The results are further illustrated by two practical numerical examples: a model of CD player and a model of the atmospheric storm track....

  20. Models and mechanisms of IPTV VоD traffic balancing

    OpenAIRE

    Klymash, Mykhailo; Hayali, Yasser; Lavriv, Orest

    2012-01-01

    Models for traffic balancing that enable to evaluate the current IPTV traffic balancing mechanisms are suggested in this paper. Also, an analysis of each of these mechanisms is performed using the IPTV traffic model. Запропоновано моделі балансування трафіку IPTV VoD для оцінки існуючих механізмів балансування. Проведено аналіз кожного з цих механізмів за допомогою моделі IPTV трафіку....

  1. Production Balance of Ship Erection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Ru-hong; TAN Jia-hua; LIU Cun-gen

    2008-01-01

    A network plan model of ship erection was established based on the network planning technologyand the work-package breakdown system. The load-oriented production control method was introduced to buildup a throughput diagram model thus it is possible to describe the ship erection process numerically. Based onthe digitaiized models some cases of production balance of ship erection were studied and three balance indexeswere put forward, they are the load balance rate, the input manpower balance rate and the maximum gantrycrane operating times. Such an analytic method based on the balance evaluation is the important foundationfor digitization and intelligentization of shipyard production management.

  2. Computational Fluid Dynamics-Population Balance Model Simulation of Effects of Cell Design and Operating Parameters on Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows and Bubble Distribution Characteristics in Aluminum Electrolysis Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Shuiqing; Wang, Junfeng; Wang, Zhentao; Yang, Jianhong

    2018-02-01

    The effects of different cell design and operating parameters on the gas-liquid two-phase flows and bubble distribution characteristics under the anode bottom regions in aluminum electrolysis cells were analyzed using a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-population balance model. These parameters include inter-anode channel width, anode-cathode distance (ACD), anode width and length, current density, and electrolyte depth. The simulations results show that the inter-anode channel width has no significant effect on the gas volume fraction, electrolyte velocity, and bubble size. With increasing ACD, the above values decrease and more uniform bubbles can be obtained. Different effects of the anode width and length can be concluded in different cell regions. With increasing current density, the gas volume fraction and electrolyte velocity increase, but the bubble size keeps nearly the same. Increasing electrolyte depth decreased the gas volume fraction and bubble size in particular areas and the electrolyte velocity increased.

  3. Task oriented training improves the balance outcome & reducing fall risk in diabetic population

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazal, Javeria; Malik, Arshad Nawaz; Amjad, Imran

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The objective was to determine the balance impairments and to compare task oriented versus traditional balance training in fall reduction among diabetic patients. Methods: The randomized control trial with descriptive survey and 196 diabetic patients were recruited to assess balance impairments through purposive sampling technique. Eighteen patients were randomly allocated into two groups; task oriented balance training group TOB (n=8) and traditional balance training group TBT (n...

  4. Exact solutions of the population balance equation including particle transport, using group analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Fubiao; Meleshko, Sergey V.; Flood, Adrian E.

    2018-06-01

    The population balance equation (PBE) has received an unprecedented amount of attention in recent years from both academics and industrial practitioners because of its long history, widespread use in engineering, and applicability to a wide variety of particulate and discrete-phase processes. However it is typically impossible to obtain analytical solutions, although in almost every case a numerical solution of the PBEs can be obtained. In this article, the symmetries of PBEs with homogeneous coagulation kernels involving aggregation, breakage and growth processes and particle transport in one dimension are found by direct solving the determining equations. Using the optimal system of one and two-dimensional subalgebras, all invariant solutions and reduced equations are obtained. In particular, an explicit analytical physical solution is also presented.

  5. Solar radiation, cloudiness and longwave radiation over low-latitude glaciers: implications for mass-balance modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölg, Thomas; Cullen, Nicolas J.; Kaser, Georg

    Broadband radiation schemes (parameterizations) are commonly used tools in glacier mass-balance modelling, but their performance at high altitude in the tropics has not been evaluated in detail. Here we take advantage of a high-quality 2 year record of global radiation (G) and incoming longwave radiation (L↓) measured on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro, East Africa, at 5873 m a.s.l., to optimize parameterizations of G and L↓. We show that the two radiation terms can be related by an effective cloud-cover fraction neff, so G or L↓ can be modelled based on neff derived from measured L↓ or G, respectively. At neff = 1, G is reduced to 35% of clear-sky G, and L↓ increases by 45-65% (depending on altitude) relative to clear-sky L↓. Validation for a 1 year dataset of G and L↓ obtained at 4850 m on Glaciar Artesonraju, Peruvian Andes, yields a satisfactory performance of the radiation scheme. Whether this performance is acceptable for mass-balance studies of tropical glaciers is explored by applying the data from Glaciar Artesonraju to a physically based mass-balance model, which requires, among others, G and L↓ as forcing variables. Uncertainties in modelled mass balance introduced by the radiation parameterizations do not exceed those that can be caused by errors in the radiation measurements. Hence, this paper provides a tool for inclusion in spatially distributed mass-balance modelling of tropical glaciers and/or extension of radiation data when only G or L↓ is measured.

  6. Toward Balance Recovery With Leg Prostheses Using Neuromuscular Model Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Objective Lower limb amputees are at high risk of falling as current prosthetic legs provide only limited functionality for recovering balance after unexpected disturbances. For instance, the most established control method used on powered leg prostheses tracks local joint impedance functions without taking the global function of the leg in balance recovery into account. Here we explore an alternative control policy for powered transfemoral prostheses that considers the global leg function and is based on a neuromuscular model of human locomotion. Methods We adapt this model to describe and simulate an amputee walking with a powered prosthesis using the proposed control, and evaluate the gait robustness when confronted with rough ground and swing leg disturbances. We then implement and partially evaluate the resulting controller on a leg prosthesis prototype worn by a non-amputee user. Results In simulation, the proposed prosthesis control leads to gaits that are more robust than those obtained by the impedance control method. The initial hardware experiments with the prosthesis prototype show that the proposed control reproduces normal walking patterns qualitatively and effectively responds to disturbances in early and late swing. However, the response to mid-swing disturbances neither replicates human responses nor averts falls. Conclusions The neuromuscular model control is a promising alternative to existing prosthesis controls, although further research will need to improve on the initial implementation and determine how well these results transfer to amputee gait. Significance This work provides a potential avenue for future development of control policies that help improve amputee balance recovery. PMID:26315935

  7. Statistical molecular design of balanced compound libraries for QSAR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linusson, A; Elofsson, M; Andersson, I E; Dahlgren, M K

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental step in preclinical drug development is the computation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, i.e. models that link chemical features of compounds with activities towards a target macromolecule associated with the initiation or progression of a disease. QSAR models are computed by combining information on the physicochemical and structural features of a library of congeneric compounds, typically assembled from two or more building blocks, and biological data from one or more in vitro assays. Since the models provide information on features affecting the compounds' biological activity they can be used as guides for further optimization. However, in order for a QSAR model to be relevant to the targeted disease, and drug development in general, the compound library used must contain molecules with balanced variation of the features spanning the chemical space believed to be important for interaction with the biological target. In addition, the assays used must be robust and deliver high quality data that are directly related to the function of the biological target and the associated disease state. In this review, we discuss and exemplify the concept of statistical molecular design (SMD) in the selection of building blocks and final synthetic targets (i.e. compounds to synthesize) to generate information-rich, balanced libraries for biological testing and computation of QSAR models.

  8. Development and application of the Qausi Distributed Water Balance model (QDWB in the Neishaboor-Rokh watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sajjad razavi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Limitation of water resources in Iran motivates sustaining and preserving of the resources in order to supply future water needs. Fulfilling these objectives will not be possible unless having accurate water balance of watersheds. The purpose of this study is to estimate the water balance parameters using a distributed method. The large number of distributed models and methods was studied and “Quasi Distributed Water Balance model” (QDWB was written in the MATLAB programming environment. To conduct this model, it is needed that each data layer (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, land use, soil data,.. to be converted into grid format. In this research the 500m * 500m cell size was used and water balance parameters for each cell was estimated. Runoff and deep percolation obtained from surface balance equation and irrigation needs were estimated based on soil moisture deficit. The study area of 9157 square kilometers is Neyshabour- Rokh watershed. The results showed there is a good correlation between water balance parameters such as precipitation-runoff, precipitation-evapotranspiration, and precipitation- deep percoulation and demonstrate that QDWB model is consistent with the basin hydrological process.Change in soil moisture at basin wide is 1 MCM in 1388-89 and 40 MCM in 1380-81. The evapotranspiration results from a distributed model” SWAT” and QDWB model were in good agreement.

  9. A new balance-of-plant model for the SASSYS-1 LMR systems analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, L.L.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper, a balance-of-plant model is developed for the SASSYS code. This model represents the balance of plant as a network of components. It interfaces with the existing SASSYS code through the water side of the steam generator. The network representation provides a discretization of the mass, momentum, and energy equations and the equation of state and allows a simultaneous solution for the changes in pressure, flow, and enthalpy throughout the waterside system. The model has been tested for several types of transients and been found to perform both accurately and efficiently

  10. The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

    2017-05-03

    The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

  11. Analysis of hohlraum energetics of the SG series and the NIF experiments with energy balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoli Ren

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic energy balance model is applied to analyze the hohlraum energetics data from the Shenguang (SG series laser facilities and the National Ignition Facility (NIF experiments published in the past few years. The analysis shows that the overall hohlraum energetics data are in agreement with the energy balance model within 20% deviation. The 20% deviation might be caused by the diversity in hohlraum parameters, such as material, laser pulse, gas filling density, etc. In addition, the NIF's ignition target designs and our ignition target designs given by simulations are also in accordance with the energy balance model. This work confirms the value of the energy balance model for ignition target design and experimental data assessment, and demonstrates that the NIF energy is enough to achieve ignition if a 1D spherical radiation drive could be created, meanwhile both the laser plasma instabilities and hydrodynamic instabilities could be suppressed.

  12. The effect of adjusting model inputs to achieve mass balance on time-dynamic simulations in a food-web model of Lake Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langseth, Brian J.; Jones, Michael L.; Riley, Stephen C.

    2014-01-01

    Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a widely used modeling tool in fishery research and management. Ecopath requires a mass-balanced snapshot of a food web at a particular point in time, which Ecosim then uses to simulate changes in biomass over time. Initial inputs to Ecopath, including estimates for biomasses, production to biomass ratios, consumption to biomass ratios, and diets, rarely produce mass balance, and thus ad hoc changes to inputs are required to balance the model. There has been little previous research of whether ad hoc changes to achieve mass balance affect Ecosim simulations. We constructed an EwE model for the offshore community of Lake Huron, and balanced the model using four contrasting but realistic methods. The four balancing methods were based on two contrasting approaches; in the first approach, production of unbalanced groups was increased by increasing either biomass or the production to biomass ratio, while in the second approach, consumption of predators on unbalanced groups was decreased by decreasing either biomass or the consumption to biomass ratio. We compared six simulation scenarios based on three alternative assumptions about the extent to which mortality rates of prey can change in response to changes in predator biomass (i.e., vulnerabilities) under perturbations to either fishing mortality or environmental production. Changes in simulated biomass values over time were used in a principal components analysis to assess the comparative effect of balancing method, vulnerabilities, and perturbation types. Vulnerabilities explained the most variation in biomass, followed by the type of perturbation. Choice of balancing method explained little of the overall variation in biomass. Under scenarios where changes in predator biomass caused large changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., high vulnerabilities), variation in biomass was greater than when changes in predator biomass caused only small changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., low

  13. Simulation model of load balancing in distributed computing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botygin, I. A.; Popov, V. N.; Frolov, S. G.

    2017-02-01

    The availability of high-performance computing, high speed data transfer over the network and widespread of software for the design and pre-production in mechanical engineering have led to the fact that at the present time the large industrial enterprises and small engineering companies implement complex computer systems for efficient solutions of production and management tasks. Such computer systems are generally built on the basis of distributed heterogeneous computer systems. The analytical problems solved by such systems are the key models of research, but the system-wide problems of efficient distribution (balancing) of the computational load and accommodation input, intermediate and output databases are no less important. The main tasks of this balancing system are load and condition monitoring of compute nodes, and the selection of a node for transition of the user’s request in accordance with a predetermined algorithm. The load balancing is one of the most used methods of increasing productivity of distributed computing systems through the optimal allocation of tasks between the computer system nodes. Therefore, the development of methods and algorithms for computing optimal scheduling in a distributed system, dynamically changing its infrastructure, is an important task.

  14. Electronic Health Record Effects on Work-Life Balance and Burnout Within the I3 Population Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Sandy L; Robinson, Mark D; Reid, Alfred

    2017-08-01

    Physician burnout is a problem that often is attributed to the use of the electronic health record (EHR). To estimate the prevalence of burnout and work-life balance satisfaction in primary care residents and teaching physicians, and to examine the relationship between these outcomes, EHR use, and other practice and individual factors. Residents and faculty in 19 primary care programs were anonymously surveyed about burnout, work-life balance satisfaction, and EHR use. Additional items included practice size, specialty, EHR characteristics, and demographics. A logistic regression model identified independent factors associated with burnout and work-life balance satisfaction. In total, 585 of 866 surveys (68%) were completed, and 216 (37%) respondents indicated 1 or more symptoms of burnout, with 162 (75%) attributing burnout to the EHR. A total of 310 of 585 (53%) reported dissatisfaction with work-life balance, and 497 (85%) indicated that use of the EHR affected their work-life balance. Respondents who spent more than 6 hours weekly after hours in EHR work were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-4.4) more likely to report burnout and 3.9 times (95% CI 1.9-8.2) more likely to attribute burnout to the EHR. They were 0.33 times (95% CI 0.22-0.49) as likely to report work-life balance satisfaction, and 3.7 times (95% CI 2.1-6.7) more likely to attribute their work-life balance satisfaction to the EHR. More after-hours time spent on the EHR was associated with burnout and less work-life satisfaction in primary care residents and faculty.

  15. A Residual Approach for Balanced Truncation Model Reduction (BTMR of Compartmental Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William La Cruz

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a residual approach of the square root balanced truncation algorithm for model order reduction of continuous, linear and time-invariante compartmental systems. Specifically, the new approach uses a residual method to approximate the controllability and observability gramians, whose resolution is an essential step of the square root balanced truncation algorithm, that requires a great computational cost. Numerical experiences are included to highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  16. Evidences for balancing selection from PAH-BglII and PAH-EcoRI polymorphisms in Isfahan population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Fazeli Attar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Two polymorphic markers including BglII and EcoRI, were identified at intron 1 and intron 5 of PAH gene. In order to test whether these polymorphisms are behaving as neutral alleles or are being subjected to selective pressures in Isfahan population, 110 individuals were genotyped by PCR-RFLP. The Arlequin input file was prepared by use of phase-known haplotype data and Neutrality tests (Tajima D test and Fu’s Fs test were done using Arlequin program. 42 individuals were found heterozygous for both polymorphisms whose haplotype phase remained unknown. The BglII-EcoRI haplotype phase was known only at 68 individuals who were used for preparation of input file. Tajima's D value and Fs value at Isfahan population were 1.7 and 1.02, respectively. Positive values of Fs and D>0 indicated that these polymorphisms are under selection pressure at Isfahan population. Although these polymorphisms were in the non-coding region of PAH gene, but these were not neutral alleles and positive values of these tests provided evidence for balancing selection of these polymorphisms at Isfahan population. The results of this study could improve our understanding of evolutionary history and structure of Isfahan population.

  17. Analysis of the type II robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çil, Zeynel Abidin; Mete, Süleyman; Ağpak, Kürşad

    2017-06-01

    In recent years, there has been an increasing trend towards using robots in production systems. Robots are used in different areas such as packaging, transportation, loading/unloading and especially assembly lines. One important step in taking advantage of robots on the assembly line is considering them while balancing the line. On the other hand, market conditions have increased the importance of mixed-model assembly lines. Therefore, in this article, the robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem is studied. The aim of this study is to develop a new efficient heuristic algorithm based on beam search in order to minimize the sum of cycle times over all models. In addition, mathematical models of the problem are presented for comparison. The proposed heuristic is tested on benchmark problems and compared with the optimal solutions. The results show that the algorithm is very competitive and is a promising tool for further research.

  18. Active influence in dynamical models of structural balance in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Tyler H.; Shames, Iman

    2013-07-01

    We consider a nonlinear dynamical system on a signed graph, which can be interpreted as a mathematical model of social networks in which the links can have both positive and negative connotations. In accordance with a concept from social psychology called structural balance, the negative links play a key role in both the structure and dynamics of the network. Recent research has shown that in a nonlinear dynamical system modeling the time evolution of “friendliness levels” in the network, two opposing factions emerge from almost any initial condition. Here we study active external influence in this dynamical model and show that any agent in the network can achieve any desired structurally balanced state from any initial condition by perturbing its own local friendliness levels. Based on this result, we also introduce a new network centrality measure for signed networks. The results are illustrated in an international-relations network using United Nations voting record data from 1946 to 2008 to estimate friendliness levels amongst various countries.

  19. Population-expression models of immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  20. Criticisms and defences of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: some old, some new

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S.L. McCombie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses various critiques that have been levelled over the years against Thirlwall’s Law and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model. It starts by assessing the criticisms that the law is largely capturing an identity; that the law of one price renders the model incoherent; and that statistical testing using cross-country data rejects the hypothesis that the actual and the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rates are the same. It goes on to consider the argument that calculations of the “constant-market-shares” income elasticities of demand for exports demonstrate that the UK (and by implication other advanced countries could not have been balance-of-payments constrained in the early postwar period. Next Krugman’s interpretation of the law (or what he terms the “45-degree rule”, which is at variance with the usual demand-oriented explanation, is examined. The paper next assesses attempts to reconcile the demand and supply side of the model and examines whether or not the balance-of-payments constrained growth model is subject to the fallacy of composition. It concludes that none of these criticisms invalidate the model, which remains a powerful explanation of why growth rates differ.

  1. SEMIC: an efficient surface energy and mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We present SEMIC, a Surface Energy and Mass balance model of Intermediate Complexity for snow- and ice-covered surfaces such as the Greenland ice sheet. SEMIC is fast enough for glacial cycle applications, making it a suitable replacement for simpler methods such as the positive degree day (PDD method often used in ice sheet modelling. Our model explicitly calculates the main processes involved in the surface energy and mass balance, while maintaining a simple interface and requiring minimal data input to drive it. In this novel approach, we parameterise diurnal temperature variations in order to more realistically capture the daily thaw–freeze cycles that characterise the ice sheet mass balance. We show how to derive optimal model parameters for SEMIC specifically to reproduce surface characteristics and day-to-day variations similar to the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, version 2 and its incorporated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT (Soil Ice Snow Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer. A validation test shows that SEMIC simulates future changes in surface temperature and surface mass balance in good agreement with the more sophisticated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT included in MAR. With this paper, we present a physically based surface model to the ice sheet modelling community that is general enough to be used with in situ observations, climate model, or reanalysis data, and that is at the same time computationally fast enough for long-term integrations, such as glacial cycles or future climate change scenarios.

  2. Modelled and observed mass balance of Rikha Samba Glacier, Nepal, Central Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, T. R.; Kayastha, R. B.; Fujita, K.; Sinisalo, A. K.; Stumm, D.; Joshi, S.; Litt, M.

    2016-12-01

    Glacier mass balance variability has an implication for the regional water resources and it helps to understand the response of glacier to climate change in the Himalayan region. Several mass balance studies have been started in the Himalayan region since 1970s, but they are characterized by frequent temporal gaps and a poor spatial representatively. This study aims at bridging the temporal gaps in a long term mass balance series of the Rikha Samba glacier (5383 - 6475 m a.s.l.), a benchmark glacier located in the Hidden Valley, Mustang, Nepal. The ERA Interim reanalysis data for the period 2011-2015 is calibrated with the observed meteorological variables from an AWS installed near the glacier terminus. We apply an energy mass balance model, validated with the available in-situ measurements for the years 1998 and 2011-2015. The results show that the glacier is shrinking at a moderate negative mass balance rate for the period 1995 to 2015 and the high altitude location of Rikha Samba also prevents a bigger mass loss compared to other small Himalayan glaciers. Precipitation from July to January and the mean air temperature from June to October are the most influential climatic parameters of the annual mass balance variability of Rikha Samba glacier.

  3. Population cycles and species diversity in dynamic Kill-the-Winner model of microbial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Determinants of species diversity in microbial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Bacteriophages are believed to increase the diversity by the virtue of Kill-the-Winner infection bias preventing the fastest growing organism from taking over the community. Phage-bacterial ecosystems are traditionally described in terms of the static equilibrium state of Lotka-Volterra equations in which bacterial growth is exactly balanced by losses due to phage predation. Here we consider a more dynamic scenario in which phage infections give rise to abrupt and severe collapses of bacterial populations whenever they become sufficiently large. As a consequence, each bacterial population in our model follows cyclic dynamics of exponential growth interrupted by sudden declines. The total population of all species fluctuates around the carrying capacity of the environment, making these cycles cryptic. While a subset of the slowest growing species in our model is always driven towards extinction, in general the overall ecosystem diversity remains high. The number of surviving species is inversely proportional to the variation in their growth rates but increases with the frequency and severity of phage-induced collapses. Thus counter-intuitively we predict that microbial communities exposed to more violent perturbations should have higher diversity. PMID:28051127

  4. Balance Treatment Ameliorates Anxiety and Increases Self-Esteem in Children with Comorbid Anxiety and Balance Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, Orit; Bar-Haim, Yair; Weizman, Einat; Levin, Moran; Sadeh, Avi; Mintz, Matti

    2009-01-01

    Comorbidity between balance and anxiety disorders in adult population is a well-studied clinical entity. Children might be particularly prone to develop balance-anxiety comorbidity, but surprisingly they are practically neglected in this field of research. The consequence is that children are treated for what seems to be the primary disorder…

  5. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  6. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  7. Balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model for knowledge growth

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2016-11-18

    In this paper we study balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model proposed by Lucas and Moll [15] to model knowledge growth in an economy. Agents can either increase their knowledge level by exchanging ideas in learning events or by producing goods with the knowledge they already have. The existence of balanced growth path solutions implies exponential growth of the overall production in time. We prove existence of balanced growth path solutions if the initial distribution of individuals with respect to their knowledge level satisfies a Pareto-tail condition. Furthermore we give first insights into the existence of such solutions if in addition to production and knowledge exchange the knowledge level evolves by geometric Brownian motion.

  8. Model for Assembly Line Re-Balancing Considering Additional Capacity and Outsourcing to Face Demand Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadhi, TMAA; Sumihartati, Atin

    2016-02-01

    The most critical stage in a garment industry is sewing process, because generally, it consists of a number of operations and a large number of sewing machines for each operation. Therefore, it requires a balancing method that can assign task to work station with balance workloads. Many studies on assembly line balancing assume a new assembly line, but in reality, due to demand fluctuation and demand increased a re-balancing is needed. To cope with those fluctuating demand changes, additional capacity can be carried out by investing in spare sewing machine and paying for sewing service through outsourcing. This study develops an assembly line balancing (ALB) model on existing line to cope with fluctuating demand change. Capacity redesign is decided if the fluctuation demand exceeds the available capacity through a combination of making investment on new machines and outsourcing while considering for minimizing the cost of idle capacity in the future. The objective of the model is to minimize the total cost of the line assembly that consists of operating costs, machine cost, adding capacity cost, losses cost due to idle capacity and outsourcing costs. The model develop is based on an integer programming model. The model is tested for a set of data of one year demand with the existing number of sewing machines of 41 units. The result shows that additional maximum capacity up to 76 units of machine required when there is an increase of 60% of the average demand, at the equal cost parameters..

  9. When Do States Balance Power?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hariri, Jacob Gerner; Wivel, Anders

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the logic of balancing in structural realist theory. Arguably, the durability of the unipolar moment is a challenge to the logic of balancing. The paper uses the tools of microeconomics to build a mathematical model of structural realism. The simple model reiterates...... the structural realist prediction that the weaker states should balance the unipole. Under a slight model extension, it is shown that efforts to balance in separate capabilities always tends to offset each other. Under this extension, the durability of the unipolar moment is in fact consistent...

  10. Regional Balance Model of Financial Flows through Sectoral Approaches System of National Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Aleksandrovna Zaharchuk

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the study, the results of which are reflected in this article, is the theoretical and methodological substantiation of possibilities to build a regional balance model of financial flows consistent with the principles of the construction of the System of National Accounts (SNA. The paper summarizes the international experience of building regional accounts in the SNA as well as reflects the advantages and disadvantages of the existing techniques for constructing Social Accounting Matrix. The authors have proposed an approach to build the regional balance model of financial flows, which is based on the disaggregated tables of the formation, distribution and use of the added value of territory in the framework of institutional sectors of SNA (corporations, public administration, households. Within the problem resolution of the transition of value added from industries to sectors, the authors have offered an approach to the accounting of development, distribution and use of value added within the institutional sectors of the territories. The methods of calculation are based on the publicly available information base of statistics agencies and federal services. The authors provide the scheme of the interrelations of the indicators of the regional balance model of financial flows. It allows to coordinate mutually the movement of regional resources by the sectors of «corporation», «public administration» and «households» among themselves, and cash flows of the region — by the sectors and directions of use. As a result, they form a single account of the formation and distribution of territorial financial resources, which is a regional balance model of financial flows. This matrix shows the distribution of financial resources by income sources and sectors, where the components of the formation (compensation, taxes and gross profit, distribution (transfers and payments and use (final consumption, accumulation of value added are

  11. Energy balance of forage consumption by phyllophagous insects: optimization model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Tarasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The model of optimal food consumption by phytophagous insects proposed, in which the metabolic costs are presented in the form of two components – the cost of food utilization and costs for proper metabolism of the individuals. Two measures were introduced – the «price» of food conversion and the «price» of biomass synthesis of individuals to assess the effectiveness of food consumption by caterpillars. The proposed approach to the description of food consumption by insects provides the exact solutions of the equation of energy balance of food consumption and determining the effectiveness of consumption and the risk of death of the individual. Experiments on larvae’s feeding in laboratory conditions were carried out to verify the model. Caterpillars of Aporia crataegi L. (Lepidoptera, Pieridae were the research subjects. Supply­demand balance, calculated value of the environmental price of consumption and efficiency of food consumption for each individual were determined from experimental data. It was found that the fertility of the female does not depend on the weight of food consumed by it, but is linearly dependent on the food consumption efficiency index. The greater the efficiency of food consumption by an individual, the higher its fertility. The data obtained in the course of experiments on the feeding caterpillars Aporia crataegi were compared with the data presented in the works of other authors and counted in the proposed model of consumption. Calculations allowed estimation of the critical value of food conversion price below which the energy balance is negative and the existence of an individual is not possible.

  12. Modeling seasonal water balance based on catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.; Zhao, J.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    This paper develops a seasonal water balance model based on the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality. According to the monthly aridity index, one year is split into wet season and dry season. A seasonal water balance model is developed by analogy to a two-stage reservoir operation model, in which seasonal rainfall infiltration, evapotranspiration and saturation-excess runoff is corresponding to the inflow, release and surplus of the catchment system. Then the optimal hedging between wet season and dry season evapotranspiration is analytically derived with marginal benefit principle. Water budget data sets of 320 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1980 to 2010 are used to evaluate the performance of this model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient for evapotranspiration is higher than 0.5 in 84% of the study catchments; while the runoff is 87%. This paper validates catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climate seasonality and shows its potential application for seasonal water balance, which is valuable for water resources planning and management.

  13. First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

    2009-04-01

    A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

  14. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  15. Relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction among employees in China: A moderated mediation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yue; Wang, Yuchen; Zhang, Jianxin

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have revealed the association between work-family balance and job satisfaction. The present research further explored the underlying mechanism of this association and aimed to provide a moderated mediation model to explain if personality traits moderate the relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction through work engagement. A cross-sectional study was conducted in which 263 employees from a petrochemical enterprise in China completed self-report questionnaires including the Work-Family Balance Scale, the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, the Big Five Inventory-10, and the Job Satisfaction Scale. Hierarchical regression analysis and structural equation modeling showed that work engagement partially mediated the relationship between work-family balance and job satisfaction, and the indirect effect was further moderated only by extraversion. Therefore, an integrative moderated mediation model was proposed wherein work-family balance boosts job satisfaction by first enhancing employees' work engagement, while the indirect effect was in turn moderated by extraversion. The results suggest that interventions for improving job satisfaction may be enhanced by targeting work engagement, especially for employees with higher extraversion. © 2017 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  16. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  17. A Computational Modeling Approach for Investigating Soft Tissue Balancing in Bicruciate Retaining Knee Arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Amiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty, although has shown improved functions and patient satisfaction compared to other designs of total knee replacement, remains a technically demanding option for treating severe cases of arthritic knees. One of the main challenges in bicruciate retaining arthroplasty is proper balancing of the soft tissue during the surgery. In this study biomechanics of soft tissue balancing was investigated using a validated computational model of the knee joint with high fidelity definitions of the soft tissue structures along with a Taguchi method for design of experiments. The model was used to simulate intraoperative balancing of soft tissue structures following the combinations suggested by an orthogonal array design. The results were used to quantify the corresponding effects on the laxity of the joint under anterior-posterior, internal-external, and varus-valgus loads. These effects were ranked for each ligament bundle to identify the components of laxity which were most sensitive to the corresponding surgical modifications. The resulting map of sensitivity for all the ligament bundles determined the components of laxity most suitable for examination during intraoperative balancing of the soft tissue. Ultimately, a sequence for intraoperative soft tissue balancing was suggested for a bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty.

  18. A Computational Modeling Approach for Investigating Soft Tissue Balancing in Bicruciate Retaining Knee Arthroplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Shahram; Wilson, David R.

    2012-01-01

    Bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty, although has shown improved functions and patient satisfaction compared to other designs of total knee replacement, remains a technically demanding option for treating severe cases of arthritic knees. One of the main challenges in bicruciate retaining arthroplasty is proper balancing of the soft tissue during the surgery. In this study biomechanics of soft tissue balancing was investigated using a validated computational model of the knee joint with high fidelity definitions of the soft tissue structures along with a Taguchi method for design of experiments. The model was used to simulate intraoperative balancing of soft tissue structures following the combinations suggested by an orthogonal array design. The results were used to quantify the corresponding effects on the laxity of the joint under anterior-posterior, internal-external, and varus-valgus loads. These effects were ranked for each ligament bundle to identify the components of laxity which were most sensitive to the corresponding surgical modifications. The resulting map of sensitivity for all the ligament bundles determined the components of laxity most suitable for examination during intraoperative balancing of the soft tissue. Ultimately, a sequence for intraoperative soft tissue balancing was suggested for a bicruciate retaining knee arthroplasty. PMID:23082090

  19. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not limited to a certain type of balancing, and they are applicable for different types of balancing corresponding to different equations, like Lyapunov or Riccati equations. The results obtained are ...

  20. Balancing selection and recombination as evolutionary forces caused population genetic variations in golden pheasant MHC class I genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qian-Qian; He, Ke; Sun, Dan-Dan; Ma, Mei-Ying; Ge, Yun-Fa; Fang, Sheng-Guo; Wan, Qiu-Hong

    2016-02-18

    pattern indicate that interlocus recombination accounts for much of the allelic variation in IA2. Analysis of the population differentiation implied that homogenous balancing selection plays an important part in maintaining an even distribution of MHC variations. The natural barrier of the Yangtze River and heterogeneous balancing selection might help shape the NYR-SYR genetic structure in golden pheasants.

  1. Inference on population history and model checking using DNA sequence and microsatellite data with the software DIYABC (v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estoup Arnaud

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC is a recent flexible class of Monte-Carlo algorithms increasingly used to make model-based inference on complex evolutionary scenarios that have acted on natural populations. The software DIYABC offers a user-friendly interface allowing non-expert users to consider population histories involving any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. We here describe and illustrate new developments of this software that mainly include (i inference from DNA sequence data in addition or separately to microsatellite data, (ii the possibility to analyze five categories of loci considering balanced or non balanced sex ratios: autosomal diploid, autosomal haploid, X-linked, Y-linked and mitochondrial, and (iii the possibility to perform model checking computation to assess the "goodness-of-fit" of a model, a feature of ABC analysis that has been so far neglected. Results We used controlled simulated data sets generated under evolutionary scenarios involving various divergence and admixture events to evaluate the effect of mixing autosomal microsatellite, mtDNA and/or nuclear autosomal DNA sequence data on inferences. This evaluation included the comparison of competing scenarios and the quantification of their relative support, and the estimation of parameter posterior distributions under a given scenario. We also considered a set of scenarios often compared when making ABC inferences on the routes of introduction of invasive species to illustrate the interest of the new model checking option of DIYABC to assess model misfit. Conclusions Our new developments of the integrated software DIYABC should be particularly useful to make inference on complex evolutionary scenarios involving both recent and ancient historical events and using various types of molecular markers in diploid or haploid organisms. They offer a handy way for non-expert users to achieve model checking

  2. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  3. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  4. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  5. Model reduction of detailed-balanced reaction networks by clustering linkage classes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shodhan; Jayawardhana, Bayu; van der Schaft, Abraham; Findeisen, Rolf; Bullinger, Eric; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Bernaerts, Kristel

    2016-01-01

    We propose a model reduction method that involves sequential application of clustering of linkage classes and Kron reduction. This approach is specifically useful for chemical reaction networks with each linkage class having less number of reactions. In case of detailed balanced chemical reaction

  6. Changes in Burnout and Satisfaction With Work-Life Balance in Physicians and the General US Working Population Between 2011 and 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanafelt, Tait D; Hasan, Omar; Dyrbye, Lotte N; Sinsky, Christine; Satele, Daniel; Sloan, Jeff; West, Colin P

    2015-12-01

    To evaluate the prevalence of burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance in physicians and US workers in 2014 relative to 2011. From August 28, 2014, to October 6, 2014, we surveyed both US physicians and a probability-based sample of the general US population using the methods and measures used in our 2011 study. Burnout was measured using validated metrics, and satisfaction with work-life balance was assessed using standard tools. Of the 35,922 physicians who received an invitation to participate, 6880 (19.2%) completed surveys. When assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, 54.4% (n=3680) of the physicians reported at least 1 symptom of burnout in 2014 compared with 45.5% (n=3310) in 2011 (Pbalance also declined in physicians between 2011 and 2014 (48.5% vs 40.9%; Pbalance were observed by specialty. In contrast to the trends in physicians, minimal changes in burnout or satisfaction with work-life balance were observed between 2011 and 2014 in probability-based samples of working US adults, resulting in an increasing disparity in burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance in physicians relative to the general US working population. After pooled multivariate analysis adjusting for age, sex, relationship status, and hours worked per week, physicians remained at an increased risk of burnout (odds ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.80-2.16; Pbalance (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.75; Pbalance in US physicians worsened from 2011 to 2014. More than half of US physicians are now experiencing professional burnout. Copyright © 2015 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A new balance-of-plant model for the SASSYS-1 LMR systems analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, L.L.

    1989-01-01

    A balance-of-plant model has been added to the SASSYS-1 liquid metal reactor systems analysis code. Until this addition, the only waterside component which SASSYS-1 could explicitly model was the water side of a steam generator, with the remainder of the water side represented by boundary conditions on the steam generator. The balance-of-plant model is based on the model used for the sodium side of the plant. It will handle subcooled liquid water, superheated steam, and saturated two-phase fluid. With the exception of heated flow paths in heaters, the model assumes adiabatic conditions along flow paths; this assumption simplifies the solution procedure while introducing very little error for a wide range of reactor plant problems. Only adiabatic flow is discussed in this report. 3 refs., 4 figs

  8. Changes in atomic populations due to edge plasma fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammami, R., E-mail: ramzi.hammami@univ-provence.fr [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France); Capes, H. [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France); Catoire, F. [CELIA, Université de Bordeaux 1 and CNRS, Domaine du Haut Carré, Talence 33405 (France); Godbert-Mouret, L.; Koubiti, M.; Marandet, Y.; Mekkaoui, A.; Rosato, J.; Stamm, R. [PIIM, Aix-Marseille Université and CNRS, centre Saint Jérôme, Marseille 13397 (France)

    2013-07-15

    The population balance of atoms or ions in an edge plasma is calculated in the presence of fluctuating density or temperature. We have used a stochastic model taking advantage of the knowledge of the plasma parameter statistical properties, and assuming a stepwise constant stochastic process for the fluctuating variable. The model is applied to simplified atomic systems such as three level hydrogen atoms or the ionization balance of carbon affected by electronic temperature or density fluctuations obeying a gamma PDF, and an exponential waiting time distribution.

  9. EFFECT OF SPECIFIC BALANCE STRATEGY TRAINING PROGRAMME ON BALANCE IN INSTITUTIONALIZED ELDERLY POPULATION

    OpenAIRE

    Muzaffar Mairaj; Hamdani Nusrat; Walia Shefali

    2015-01-01

    Background: Balance emerges from the interaction of multiple systems that are organized to meet functional task goals and that are constrained by environmental context, but is often compromised with advancing age. At least 30% of older people experience decline in physical activity after entry into residential care. Participation in activity is more difficult for older people because of fear, lack of motivation, depression and poor understanding of the long term benefits of physical activity....

  10. Hamiltonian formulation of systems with balanced loss-gain and exactly solvable models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Pijush K.; Sinha, Debdeep

    2018-01-01

    A Hamiltonian formulation of generic many-body systems with balanced loss and gain is presented. It is shown that a Hamiltonian formulation is possible only if the balancing of loss and gain terms occurs in a pairwise fashion. It is also shown that with the choice of a suitable co-ordinate, the Hamiltonian can always be reformulated in the background of a pseudo-Euclidean metric. If the equations of motion of some of the well-known many-body systems like Calogero models are generalized to include balanced loss and gain, it appears that the same may not be amenable to a Hamiltonian formulation. A few exactly solvable systems with balanced loss and gain, along with a set of integrals of motion are constructed. The examples include a coupled chain of nonlinear oscillators and a many-particle Calogero-type model with four-body inverse square plus two-body pair-wise harmonic interactions. For the case of nonlinear oscillators, stable solution exists even if the loss and gain parameter has unbounded upper range. Further, the range of the parameter for which the stable solutions are obtained is independent of the total number of the oscillators. The set of coupled nonlinear equations are solved exactly for the case when the values of all the constants of motions except the Hamiltonian are equal to zero. Exact, analytical classical solutions are presented for all the examples considered.

  11. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  12. Validity and Stability of the Decisional Balance for Sun Protection Inventory

    OpenAIRE

    Hui-Qing Yin; Joseph S. Rossi; Colleen A. Redding; Andrea L. Paiva; Steven F. Babbin; Wayne F. Velicer

    2014-01-01

    The 8-item Decisional Balance for sun protection inventory (SunDB) assesses the relative importance of the perceived advantages (Pros) and disadvantages (Cons) of sun protective behaviors. This study examined the psychometric properties of the SunDB measure, including invariance of the measurement model, in a population-based sample of N = 1336 adults. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the theoretically based 2-factor (Pros, Cons) model, with high internal consistencies for each subscale...

  13. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  14. Ubuntu-Praxis: Re-Modelling the Balanced Scorecard Model at a University, an Afrocentric Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndoda, Gladys Ruvimbo; Sikwila, Mike Nyamazana

    2014-01-01

    The authors design the innovation and learning perspective of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) of "Ubuntu and client service charter nexus." This article borrows and advances the research carried out by Khomba, Vermaak and Gouws (2011). The point of departure is on praxis of ubuntu/unhu as a holistic approach in the re-modelling of the BSC…

  15. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  16. A Study of the Role of Decisional Balance in Exercise Status Among Yazd’s Staff Based on Transtheoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazloomy Mahmoudabad Saeid

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to statistical evidence put forward by WHO in 2003, lack of physical activity is the reason for 1.9 million deaths in the world. More than 60% of adults in the world and more than 80% of Iranian adults do not perform sufficient levels of physical activity. Despite the great advantages of exercise a huge portion of the population of many countries do not exercise adequately thus deprived of its benefits. Transtheoretical model is identified as a comprehensive model for behavior change and decision balance is regarded as a fundamental structure of the model which centers around positive and negative behavior change consequences. In this study decision was made to check the situation of sport change process in Yazd’s staff according to Transtheoretical Model and its relation with decision balance.Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 220 subjects were recruited. The subjects were selected through 2-stage cluster sampling-test; the instruments for data collection were a questionnaire that consisted of two parts (demographic variables and construct of TTM. Data analyzed by ANOVA and T-test through SPSS and P<0.05 was significant.Results: Results of the study on 152 males (69.1% and 68 females (30.9% with the average age of 34±8.68 indicated a significant relationship between pros and cons with stages of change (both P<0.0001 and between pros with age (P=0.004. Of 220 study group 44(20% were in pre-contemplation stage, 88 (40% in contemplation, 30(13.6% in preparation, 16(7.3% in action and 42(19.1% in maintenance stage.Conclusion: With regard to the fact that transtheoretical model has revealed a significant relationship between decisional balance and stage of change in exercise. It is proposed that accomplish educational class for employees, in order to increase pros and reduce cons of exercise.

  17. Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

    2017-01-01

    It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

  18. A model-based approach for identifying signatures of ancient balancing selection in genetic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGiorgio, Michael; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2014-08-01

    While much effort has focused on detecting positive and negative directional selection in the human genome, relatively little work has been devoted to balancing selection. This lack of attention is likely due to the paucity of sophisticated methods for identifying sites under balancing selection. Here we develop two composite likelihood ratio tests for detecting balancing selection. Using simulations, we show that these methods outperform competing methods under a variety of assumptions and demographic models. We apply the new methods to whole-genome human data, and find a number of previously-identified loci with strong evidence of balancing selection, including several HLA genes. Additionally, we find evidence for many novel candidates, the strongest of which is FANK1, an imprinted gene that suppresses apoptosis, is expressed during meiosis in males, and displays marginal signs of segregation distortion. We hypothesize that balancing selection acts on this locus to stabilize the segregation distortion and negative fitness effects of the distorter allele. Thus, our methods are able to reproduce many previously-hypothesized signals of balancing selection, as well as discover novel interesting candidates.

  19. A model-based approach for identifying signatures of ancient balancing selection in genetic data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael DeGiorgio

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available While much effort has focused on detecting positive and negative directional selection in the human genome, relatively little work has been devoted to balancing selection. This lack of attention is likely due to the paucity of sophisticated methods for identifying sites under balancing selection. Here we develop two composite likelihood ratio tests for detecting balancing selection. Using simulations, we show that these methods outperform competing methods under a variety of assumptions and demographic models. We apply the new methods to whole-genome human data, and find a number of previously-identified loci with strong evidence of balancing selection, including several HLA genes. Additionally, we find evidence for many novel candidates, the strongest of which is FANK1, an imprinted gene that suppresses apoptosis, is expressed during meiosis in males, and displays marginal signs of segregation distortion. We hypothesize that balancing selection acts on this locus to stabilize the segregation distortion and negative fitness effects of the distorter allele. Thus, our methods are able to reproduce many previously-hypothesized signals of balancing selection, as well as discover novel interesting candidates.

  20. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  1. Adjusting the general growth balance method for migration

    OpenAIRE

    Hill, Kenneth; Queiroz, Bernardo

    2010-01-01

    Death distribution methods proposed for death registration coverage by comparison with census age distributions assume no net migration. This assumption makes it problematic to apply these methods to sub-national and national populations affected by substantial net migration. In this paper, we propose and explore a two-step process in which the Growth Balance Equation is first used to estimate net migration rates, using a model of age-specific migration, and then it is used to compare the obs...

  2. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  3. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  4. Energy balance and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammer, R.

    1982-01-01

    The energy balance of the outer atmospheres of solarlike stars is discussed. The energy balance of open coronal regions is considered, discussing the construction and characteristics of models of such regions in some detail. In particular, the temperature as a function of height is considered, as are the damping length dependence of the global energy balance in the region between the base of the transition region and the critical point, and the effects of changing the amount of coronal heating, the stellar mass, and the stellar radius. Models of coronal loops are more briefly discussed. The chromosphere is then included in the discussion of the energy balance, and the connection between global energy balance and global thermal stability is addressed. The observed positive correlations between the chromospheric and coronal energy losses and the pressure of the transition region is qualitatively explained

  5. Facility level SSAC for model country - an introduction and material balance accounting principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.J.

    1989-01-01

    A facility level State System of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Materials (SSAC) for a model country and the principles of materials balance accounting relating to that country are described. The seven principal elements of a SSAC are examined and a facility level system based on them discussed. The seven elements are organization and management; nuclear material measurements; measurement quality; records and reports; physical inventory taking; material balance closing; containment and surveillance. 11 refs., 19 figs., 5 tabs

  6. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  7. A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

  8. Inhomogeneous MUSIG Model - a population balance approach for polydispersed bubbly flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.; Zwart, P.J.; Shi, J.; Krepper, E.; Lucas, D.; Rohde, U.

    2005-01-01

    Many flow regimes in Nuclear Reactor Safety (NRS) Research are characterized by multiphase flows, with one phase being a continuous liquid and the other phase consisting of gas or vapour of the liquid phase. In the range of low to intermediate volume fraction of the gaseous phase the multiphase flow under consideration is a bubbly or slug flow, where the disperse phase is characterized by an evolving bubble size distribution due to bubble breakup and coalescence processes. The paper presents a generalized inhomogeneous Multiple Size Group (MUSIG) Model. Within this model the disperse gaseous phase is divided into N inhomogeneous velocity groups (phases) and each of these groups is subdivided into M bubble size classes. Bubble breakup and coalescence processes between all bubble size classes are taken into account by appropriate models. The derived inhomogeneous MUSIG model has been validated against experimental data from the TOPFLOW test facility at the Research Center Rossendorf (FZR). Comparisons of gas volume fraction and velocity profiles with TOPFLOW-074 test case data are provided, showing the applicability and accuracy of the model for polydispersed bubbly flow in large diameter vertical pipe flow. (author)

  9. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  10. A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Raymond A; Hayden, Jennifer D; Kamble, Pravin S; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Huang, Joanna C

    2017-04-01

    We compared methods to control bias and confounding in observational studies including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and stabilized IPW (sIPW). These methods often require iteration and post-calibration to achieve covariate balance. In comparison, entropy balance (EB) optimizes covariate balance a priori by calibrating weights using the target's moments as constraints. We measured covariate balance empirically and by simulation by using absolute standardized mean difference (ASMD), absolute bias (AB), and root mean square error (RMSE), investigating two scenarios: the size of the observed (exposed) cohort exceeds the target (unexposed) cohort and vice versa. The empirical application weighted a commercial health plan cohort to a nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey target on the same covariates and compared average total health care cost estimates across methods. Entropy balance alone achieved balance (ASMD ≤ 0.10) on all covariates in simulation and empirically. In simulation scenario I, EB achieved the lowest AB and RMSE (13.64, 31.19) compared with IPW (263.05, 263.99) and sIPW (319.91, 320.71). In scenario II, EB outperformed IPW and sIPW with smaller AB and RMSE. In scenarios I and II, EB achieved the lowest mean estimate difference from the simulated population outcome ($490.05, $487.62) compared with IPW and sIPW, respectively. Empirically, only EB differed from the unweighted mean cost indicating IPW, and sIPW weighting was ineffective. Entropy balance demonstrated the bias-variance tradeoff achieving higher estimate accuracy, yet lower estimate precision, compared with IPW methods. EB weighting required no post-processing and effectively mitigated observed bias and confounding. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Home-Based Risk of Falling Assessment Test Using a Closed-Loop Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayena, Johannes C; Zaibi, Helmi; Otis, Martin J-D; Menelas, Bob-Antoine J

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study is to improve and facilitate the methods used to assess risk of falling at home among older people through the computation of a risk of falling in real time in daily activities. In order to increase a real time computation of the risk of falling, a closed-loop balance model is proposed and compared with One-Leg Standing Test (OLST). This balance model allows studying the postural response of a person having an unpredictable perturbation. Twenty-nine volunteers participated in this study for evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed system which includes seventeen elder participants: ten healthy elderly ( 68.4 ±5.5 years), seven Parkinson's disease (PD) subjects ( 66.28 ±8.9 years), and twelve healthy young adults ( 28.27 ±3.74 years). Our work suggests that there is a relationship between OLST score and the risk of falling based on center of pressure measurement with four low cost force sensors located inside an instrumented insole, which could be predicted using our suggested closed-loop balance model. For long term monitoring at home, this system could be included in a medical electronic record and could be useful as a diagnostic aid tool.

  12. Climate sensitivity of glaciers in southern Norway: application of an energy-balance model to Nigardsbreen, Hellstugubreen and Alfotbreen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1992-01-01

    Three glaciers in southern Norway, with very different massbalance characteristics, are studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface. The model simulates the observed mass-balance profiles in a satisfactory way, and can thus be used with some confidence in a study of climate

  13. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.

    2015-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex....... The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated (r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps...

  14. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  15. Modeling the monthly mean soil-water balance with a statistical-dynamical ecohydrology model as coupled to a two-component canopy model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Kochendorfer

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The statistical-dynamical annual water balance model of Eagleson (1978 is a pioneering work in the analysis of climate, soil and vegetation interactions. This paper describes several enhancements and modifications to the model that improve its physical realism at the expense of its mathematical elegance and analytical tractability. In particular, the analytical solutions for the root zone fluxes are re-derived using separate potential rates of transpiration and bare-soil evaporation. Those potential rates, along with the rate of evaporation from canopy interception, are calculated using the two-component Shuttleworth-Wallace (1985 canopy model. In addition, the soil column is divided into two layers, with the upper layer representing the dynamic root zone. The resulting ability to account for changes in root-zone water storage allows for implementation at the monthly timescale. This new version of the Eagleson model is coined the Statistical-Dynamical Ecohydrology Model (SDEM. The ability of the SDEM to capture the seasonal dynamics of the local-scale soil-water balance is demonstrated for two grassland sites in the US Great Plains. Sensitivity of the results to variations in peak green leaf area index (LAI suggests that the mean peak green LAI is determined by some minimum in root zone soil moisture during the growing season. That minimum appears to be close to the soil matric potential at which the dominant grass species begins to experience water stress and well above the wilting point, thereby suggesting an ecological optimality hypothesis in which the need to avoid water-stress-induced leaf abscission is balanced by the maximization of carbon assimilation (and associated transpiration. Finally, analysis of the sensitivity of model-determined peak green LAI to soil texture shows that the coupled model is able to reproduce the so-called "inverse texture effect", which consists of the observation that natural vegetation in dry climates tends

  16. A Meta-Heuristic Load Balancer for Cloud Computing Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sliwko, L.; Getov, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a strategy to allocate services on a cloud system without overloading the nodes and maintaining the system stability with minimum cost. We specify an abstract model of cloud resources utilization, including multiple types of resources as well as considerations for the service migration costs. A prototype meta-heuristic load balancer is demonstrated and experimental results are presented and discussed. We also propose a novel genetic algorithm, where population is seeded ...

  17. Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

    2010-03-01

    Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

  18. Population balance modelling of fluidized bed melt granulation: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, H.S.; Goldschmidt, M.J.V.; Boerefijn, R.; Hounslow, M.J.; Salman, A.; Kuipers, J.A.M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the work undertaken by our group to identify and quantify the rates processes active in fluidized bed melt granulation (FBMG). The process involves the identification and development of physically representative models to mechanistically describe FBMG using both

  19. Modeling efficiency and water balance in PEM fuel cell systems with liquid fuel processing and hydrogen membranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearlman, Joshua B.; Bhargav, Atul; Shields, Eric B.; Jackson, Gregory S.; Hearn, Patrick L.

    Integrating PEM fuel cells effectively with liquid hydrocarbon reforming requires careful system analysis to assess trade-offs associated with H 2 production, purification, and overall water balance. To this end, a model of a PEM fuel cell system integrated with an autothermal reformer for liquid hydrocarbon fuels (modeled as C 12H 23) and with H 2 purification in a water-gas-shift/membrane reactor is developed to do iterative calculations for mass, species, and energy balances at a component and system level. The model evaluates system efficiency with parasitic loads (from compressors, pumps, and cooling fans), system water balance, and component operating temperatures/pressures. Model results for a 5-kW fuel cell generator show that with state-of-the-art PEM fuel cell polarization curves, thermal efficiencies >30% can be achieved when power densities are low enough for operating voltages >0.72 V per cell. Efficiency can be increased by operating the reformer at steam-to-carbon ratios as high as constraints related to stable reactor temperatures allow. Decreasing ambient temperature improves system water balance and increases efficiency through parasitic load reduction. The baseline configuration studied herein sustained water balance for ambient temperatures ≤35 °C at full power and ≤44 °C at half power with efficiencies approaching ∼27 and ∼30%, respectively.

  20. Balancing selection on immunity genes: review of the current literature and new analysis in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croze, Myriam; Živković, Daniel; Stephan, Wolfgang; Hutter, Stephan

    2016-08-01

    Balancing selection has been widely assumed to be an important evolutionary force, yet even today little is known about its abundance and its impact on the patterns of genetic diversity. Several studies have shown examples of balancing selection in humans, plants or parasites, and many genes under balancing selection are involved in immunity. It has been proposed that host-parasite coevolution is one of the main forces driving immune genes to evolve under balancing selection. In this paper, we review the literature on balancing selection on immunity genes in several organisms, including Drosophila. Furthermore, we performed a genome scan for balancing selection in an African population of Drosophila melanogaster using coalescent simulations of a demographic model with and without selection. We find very few genes under balancing selection and only one novel candidate gene related to immunity. Finally, we discuss the possible causes of the low number of genes under balancing selection. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  1. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not

  2. Population Genetics of Three Dimensional Range Expansions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrentovich, Maxim; Nelson, David

    2014-03-01

    We develop a simple model of genetic diversity in growing spherical cell clusters, where the growth is confined to the cluster surface. This kind of growth occurs in cells growing in soft agar, and can also serve as a simple model of avascular tumors. Mutation-selection balance in these radial expansions is strongly influenced by scaling near a neutral, voter model critical point and by the inflating frontier. We develop a scaling theory to describe how the dynamics of mutation-selection balance is cut off by inflation. Genetic drift, i.e., local fluctuations in the genetic diversity, also plays an important role, and can lead to the extinction even of selectively advantageous strains. We calculate this extinction probability, taking into account the effect of rough population frontiers.

  3. A balance of activity in brain control and reward systems predicts self-regulatory outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Richard B; Chen, Pin-Hao A; Huckins, Jeremy F; Hofmann, Wilhelm; Kelley, William M; Heatherton, Todd F

    2017-05-01

    Previous neuroimaging work has shown that increased reward-related activity following exposure to food cues is predictive of self-control failure. The balance model suggests that self-regulation failures result from an imbalance in reward and executive control mechanisms. However, an open question is whether the relative balance of activity in brain systems associated with executive control (vs reward) supports self-regulatory outcomes when people encounter tempting cues in daily life. Sixty-nine chronic dieters, a population known for frequent lapses in self-control, completed a food cue-reactivity task during an fMRI scanning session, followed by a weeklong sampling of daily eating behaviors via ecological momentary assessment. We related participants' food cue activity in brain systems associated with executive control and reward to real-world eating patterns. Specifically, a balance score representing the amount of activity in brain regions associated with self-regulatory control, relative to automatic reward-related activity, predicted dieters' control over their eating behavior during the following week. This balance measure may reflect individual self-control capacity and be useful for examining self-regulation success in other domains and populations. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  4. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Jacobs

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  5. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  6. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  7. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  8. Identifying data gaps and prioritizing restoration strategies for Fremont cottonwood using linked geomorphic and population models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, E. B.; Stella, J. C.; Fremier, A. K.

    2009-12-01

    Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) is an important component of semi-arid riparian ecosystems throughout western North America, but its populations are in decline due to flow regulation. Achieving a balance between human resource needs and riparian ecosystem function requires a mechanistic understanding of the multiple geomorphic and biological factors affecting tree recruitment and survival, including the timing and magnitude of river flows, and the concomitant influence on suitable habitat creation and mortality from scour and sedimentation burial. Despite a great deal of empirical research on some components of the system, such as factors affecting cottonwood recruitment, other key components are less studied. Yet understanding the relative influence of the full suite of physical and life-history drivers is critical to modeling whole-population dynamics under changing environmental conditions. We addressed these issues for the Fremont cottonwood population along the Sacramento River, CA using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in parameters on the outcomes of a patch-based, dynamic population model. Using a broad range of plausible values for 15 model parameters that represent key physical, biological and climatic components of the ecosystem, we ran 1,000 population simulations that consisted of a subset of 14.3 million possible combinations of parameter estimates to predict the frequency of patch colonization and total forest habitat predicted to occur under current hydrologic conditions after 175 years. Results indicate that Fremont cottonwood populations are highly sensitive to the interactions among flow regime, sedimentation rate and the depth of the capillary fringe (Fig. 1). Estimates of long-term floodplain sedimentation rate would substantially improve model accuracy. Spatial variation in sediment texture was also important to the extent that it determines the depth of the capillary fringe, which regulates the availability of

  9. Components of Standing Postural Control Evaluated in Pediatric Balance Measures: A Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibley, Kathryn M; Beauchamp, Marla K; Van Ooteghem, Karen; Paterson, Marie; Wittmeier, Kristy D

    2017-10-01

    To identify measures of standing balance validated in pediatric populations, and to determine the components of postural control captured in each tool. Electronic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases using key word combinations of postural balance/equilibrium, psychometrics/reproducibility of results/predictive value of tests, and child/pediatrics; gray literature; and hand searches. Inclusion criteria were measures with a stated objective to assess balance, with pediatric (≤18y) populations, with at least 1 psychometric evaluation, with at least 1 standing task, with a standardized protocol and evaluation criteria, and published in English. Two reviewers independently identified studies for inclusion. There were 21 measures included. Two reviewers extracted descriptive characteristics, and 2 investigators independently coded components of balance in each measure using a systems perspective for postural control, an established framework for balance in pediatric populations. Components of balance evaluated in measures were underlying motor systems (100% of measures), anticipatory postural control (72%), static stability (62%), sensory integration (52%), dynamic stability (48%), functional stability limits (24%), cognitive influences (24%), verticality (9%), and reactive postural control (0%). Assessing children's balance with valid and comprehensive measures is important for ensuring development of safe mobility and independence with functional tasks. Balance measures validated in pediatric populations to date do not comprehensively assess standing postural control and omit some key components for safe mobility and independence. Existing balance measures, that have been validated in adult populations and address some of the existing gaps in pediatric measures, warrant consideration for validation in children. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Measuring and modeling the temporal dynamics of nitrogen balance in an experimental-scale paddy field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, C.; Lin, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrogen balance involves many mechanisms and plays an important role to maintain the function of nature. Fertilizer application in agriculture activity is usually seen as a common and significant nitrogen input to environment. Improper fertilizer application on paddy field can result in great amount of various types of nitrogen losses. Hence, it is essential to understand and quantify the nitrogen dynamics in paddy field for fertilizer management and pollution control. In this study, we develop a model which considers major transformation processes of nitrogen (e.g. volatilization, nitrification, denitrification and plant uptake). In addition, we measured different types of nitrogen in plants, soil and water at plant growth stages in an experimental-scale paddy field in Taiwan. The measurement includes total nitrogen in plants and soil, and ammonium-N (NH4+-N), nitrate-N (NO3--N) and organic nitrogen in water. The measured data were used to calibrate the model parameters and validate the model for nitrogen balance simulation. The results showed that the model can accurately estimate the temporal dynamics of nitrogen balance in paddy field during the whole growth stage. This model might be helpful and useful for future fertilizer management and pollution control in paddy field.

  11. Form 6 - gas balancing agreement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In 1988, a special Committee of the Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation undertook a project to draft a model from gas balancing agreement. This project was initiated at the request of a number of Foundation members who felt that a model form gas balancing agreement would facilitate the negotiation of operating agreement, since gas balancing issues had become sticking points in the process. The Committee was composed of attorneys representing a wide cross-section of the oil and gas industry including both major and independent oil companies, production companies with interstate pipeline affiliates, and private practitioners. The Committee attempted to address the more controversial issues in gas balancing with optional provisions in the Form. To facilitate the negotiation process, the number of optional provisions was minimized. This form may be used as an Appendix to the new A.A.P.L. Form 610-1989 Model Form Operating Agreement. This book includes provision of this Form which are: Ownership of gas production; Balancing of production accounts; Cash balancing upon depletion; Deliverability tests; Nominations; Statements; Payment of taxes; Operating expenses; Overproducing allowable; Payment of leasehold burdens; Operator's liability; Successors and assigns; Audits; Arbitration; and Operator's fees

  12. Kin Selection - Mutation Balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyken, J. David Van; Linksvayer, Timothy Arnold; Wade, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    selection-mutation balance, which provides an evolutionary null hypothesis for the statics and dynamics of cheating. When social interactions have linear fitness effects and Hamilton´s rule is satisfied, selection is never strong enough to eliminate recurrent cheater mutants from a population, but cheater...

  13. A network flow model for load balancing in circuit-switched multicomputers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhari, Shahid H.

    1990-01-01

    In multicomputers that utilize circuit switching or wormhole routing, communication overhead depends largely on link contention - the variation due to distance between nodes is negligible. This has a major impact on the load balancing problem. In this case, there are some nodes with excess load (sources) and others with deficit load (sinks) and it is required to find a matching of sources to sinks that avoids contention. The problem is made complex by the hardwired routing on currently available machines: the user can control only which nodes communicate but not how the messages are routed. Network flow models of message flow in the mesh and the hypercube were developed to solve this problem. The crucial property of these models is the correspondence between minimum cost flows and correctly routed messages. To solve a given load balancing problem, a minimum cost flow algorithm is applied to the network. This permits one to determine efficiently a maximum contention free matching of sources to sinks which, in turn, tells one how much of the given imbalance can be eliminated without contention.

  14. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorný, Jan; Fišer, Jan; Jícha, Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whilst car is moving. Measurements of the real operating conditions of gave us data for model calibration. The model was calibrated for Škoda Felicia parking-summer scenarios.

  15. Modeling and experimental validation of water mass balance in a PEM fuel cell stack

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liso, Vincenzo; Araya, Samuel Simon; Olesen, Anders Christian

    2016-01-01

    Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells require good hydration in order to deliver high performance and ensure long life operation. Water is essential for proton conductivity in the membrane which increases by nearly six orders of magnitude from dry to fully hydrated. Adequate water...... management in PEM fuel cell is crucial in order to avoid an imbalance between water production and water removal from the fuel cell. In the present study, a novel mathematical zero-dimensional model has been formulated for the water mass balance and hydration of a polymer electrolyte membrane. This model...... is validated against experimental data. In the results it is shown that the fuel cell water balance calculated by this model shows better fit with experimental data-points compared with model where only steady state operation were considered. We conclude that this discrepancy is due a different rate of water...

  16. Does an exercise programme integrating the Nintendo Wii-Fit Balance Board improve balance in ambulatory children with cerebral palsy?

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, T.; Williams, Jonathan M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cerebral palsy is a common childhood movement disorder with balance impairment a common complaint. Active video games such as the Nintendo Wii-Fit have been found to be a valuable therapeutic tool, enjoyed by a variety of populations including children with CP, but a synthesis of the research investigating its specific use for balance in children with CP has yet to be conducted.\\ud \\ud Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of a Nintendo Wii-Fit Balance board programme in impr...

  17. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  18. Calcium Balance in Chronic Kidney Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill Gallant, Kathleen M; Spiegel, David M

    2017-06-01

    The kidneys play a critical role in the balance between the internal milieu and external environment. Kidney failure is known to disrupt a number of homeostatic mechanisms that control serum calcium and normal bone metabolism. However, our understanding of calcium balance throughout the stages of chronic kidney disease is limited and the concept of balance itself, especially with a cation as complex as calcium, is often misunderstood. Both negative and positive calcium balance have important implications in patients with chronic kidney disease, where negative balance may increase risk of osteoporosis and fracture and positive balance may increase risk of vascular calcification and cardiovascular events. Here, we examine the state of current knowledge about calcium balance in adults throughout the stages of chronic kidney disease and discuss recommendations for clinical strategies to maintain balance as well as future research needs in this area. Recent calcium balance studies in adult patients with chronic kidney disease show that neutral calcium balance is achieved with calcium intake near the recommended daily allowance. Increases in calcium through diet or supplements cause high positive calcium balance, which may put patients at risk for vascular calcification. However, heterogeneity in calcium balance exists among these patients. Given the available calcium balance data in this population, it appears clinically prudent to aim for recommended calcium intakes around 1000 mg/day to achieve neutral calcium balance and avoid adverse effects of either negative or positive calcium balance. Assessment of patients' dietary calcium intake could further equip clinicians to make individualized recommendations for meeting recommended intakes.

  19. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

    2014-02-01

    State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

  20. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  1. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  2. New factors controlling the balance between osteoblastogenesis and adipogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Basem M; Kassem, Moustapha

    2012-02-01

    The majority of conditions associated with bone loss, including aging, are accompanied by increased marrow adiposity possibly due to shifting of the balance between osteoblast and adipocyte differentiation in bone marrow stromal (skeletal) stem cells (MSC). In order to study the relationship between osteoblastogenesis and adipogenesis in bone marrow, we have characterized cellular models of multipotent MSC as well as pre-osteoblastic and pre-adipocytic cell populations. Using these models, we identified two secreted factors in the bone marrow microenviroment: secreted frizzled-related protein 1 (sFRP-1) and delta-like1 (preadipocyte factor 1) (Dlk1/Pref-1). Both exert regulatory effects on osteoblastogenesis and adipogenesis. Our studies suggest a model for lineage fate determination of MSC that is regulated through secreted factors in the bone marrow microenvironment that mediate a cross-talk between lineage committed cell populations in addition to controlling differentiation choices of multipotent MSC. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. QSPR modeling of octanol/water partition coefficient of antineoplastic agents by balance of correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, Andrey A; Toropova, Alla P; Raska, Ivan; Benfenati, Emilio

    2010-04-01

    Three different splits into the subtraining set (n = 22), the set of calibration (n = 21), and the test set (n = 12) of 55 antineoplastic agents have been examined. By the correlation balance of SMILES-based optimal descriptors quite satisfactory models for the octanol/water partition coefficient have been obtained on all three splits. The correlation balance is the optimization of a one-variable model with a target function that provides both the maximal values of the correlation coefficient for the subtraining and calibration set and the minimum of the difference between the above-mentioned correlation coefficients. Thus, the calibration set is a preliminary test set. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Genetic controls balancing excitatory and inhibitory synaptogenesis in neurodevelopmental disorder models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl L Gatto

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Proper brain function requires stringent balance of excitatory and inhibitory synapse formation during neural circuit assembly. Mutation of genes that normally sculpt and maintain this balance results in severe dysfunction, causing neurodevelopmental disorders including autism, epilepsy and Rett syndrome. Such mutations may result in defective architectural structuring of synaptic connections, molecular assembly of synapses and/or functional synaptogenesis. The affected genes often encode synaptic components directly, but also include regulators that secondarily mediate the synthesis or assembly of synaptic proteins. The prime example is Fragile X syndrome (FXS, the leading heritable cause of both intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorders. FXS results from loss of mRNA-binding FMRP, which regulates synaptic transcript trafficking, stability and translation in activity-dependent synaptogenesis and plasticity mechanisms. Genetic models of FXS exhibit striking excitatory and inhibitory synapse imbalance, associated with impaired cognitive and social interaction behaviors. Downstream of translation control, a number of specific synaptic proteins regulate excitatory versus inhibitory synaptogenesis, independently or combinatorially, and loss of these proteins is also linked to disrupted neurodevelopment. The current effort is to define the cascade of events linking transcription, translation and the role of specific synaptic proteins in the maintenance of excitatory versus inhibitory synapses during neural circuit formation. This focus includes mechanisms that fine-tune excitation and inhibition during the refinement of functional synaptic circuits, and later modulate this balance throughout life. The use of powerful new genetic models has begun to shed light on the mechanistic bases of excitation/inhibition imbalance for a range of neurodevelopmental disease states.

  5. The village/commune safety policy and HIV prevention efforts among key affected populations in Cambodia: finding a balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomson Nick

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Village/Commune Safety Policy was launched by the Ministry of Interior of the Kingdom of Cambodia in 2010 and, due to a priority focus on “cleaning the streets”, has created difficulties for HIV prevention programs attempting to implement programs that work with key affected populations including female sex workers and people who inject drugs. The implementation of the policy has forced HIV program implementers, the UN and various government counterparts to explore and develop collaborative ways of delivering HIV prevention services within this difficult environment. The following case study explores some of these efforts and highlights the promising development of a Police Community Partnership Initiative that it is hoped will find a meaningful balance between the Village/Commune Safety Policy and HIV prevention efforts with key affected populations in Cambodia.

  6. Load Balancing Scientific Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearce, Olga Tkachyshyn [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2014-12-01

    The largest supercomputers have millions of independent processors, and concurrency levels are rapidly increasing. For ideal efficiency, developers of the simulations that run on these machines must ensure that computational work is evenly balanced among processors. Assigning work evenly is challenging because many large modern parallel codes simulate behavior of physical systems that evolve over time, and their workloads change over time. Furthermore, the cost of imbalanced load increases with scale because most large-scale scientific simulations today use a Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallel programming model, and an increasing number of processors will wait for the slowest one at the synchronization points. To address load imbalance, many large-scale parallel applications use dynamic load balance algorithms to redistribute work evenly. The research objective of this dissertation is to develop methods to decide when and how to load balance the application, and to balance it effectively and affordably. We measure and evaluate the computational load of the application, and develop strategies to decide when and how to correct the imbalance. Depending on the simulation, a fast, local load balance algorithm may be suitable, or a more sophisticated and expensive algorithm may be required. We developed a model for comparison of load balance algorithms for a specific state of the simulation that enables the selection of a balancing algorithm that will minimize overall runtime.

  7. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    OpenAIRE

    Jícha Miroslav; Fišer Jan; Pokorný Jan

    2012-01-01

    In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whil...

  8. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  9. Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-10-11

    The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

  10. Model-based Assessment for Balancing Privacy Requirements and Operational Capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knirsch, Fabian [Salzburg Univ. (Austria); Engel, Dominik [Salzburg Univ. (Austria); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-02-17

    The smart grid changes the way energy is produced and distributed. In addition both, energy and information is exchanged bidirectionally among participating parties. Therefore heterogeneous systems have to cooperate effectively in order to achieve a common high-level use case, such as smart metering for billing or demand response for load curtailment. Furthermore, a substantial amount of personal data is often needed for achieving that goal. Capturing and processing personal data in the smart grid increases customer concerns about privacy and in addition, certain statutory and operational requirements regarding privacy aware data processing and storage have to be met. An increase of privacy constraints, however, often limits the operational capabilities of the system. In this paper, we present an approach that automates the process of finding an optimal balance between privacy requirements and operational requirements in a smart grid use case and application scenario. This is achieved by formally describing use cases in an abstract model and by finding an algorithm that determines the optimum balance by forward mapping privacy and operational impacts. For this optimal balancing algorithm both, a numeric approximation and – if feasible – an analytic assessment are presented and investigated. The system is evaluated by applying the tool to a real-world use case from the University of Southern California (USC) microgrid.

  11. Investigating ice cliff evolution and contribution to glacier mass-balance using a physically-based dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan; Ragettli, Silvan; Brun, Fanny; Steiner, Jakob; Pellicciotti, Francesca

    2016-04-01

    Supraglacial cliffs are a surface feature typical of debris-covered glaciers, affecting surface evolution, glacier downwasting and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface. As a result, melt rates can be very high and ice cliffs may account for a significant portion of the total glacier mass loss. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has rarely been quantified through physically-based models. Most cliff energy balance models are point scale models which calculate energy fluxes at individual cliff locations. Results from the only grid based model to date accurately reflect energy fluxes and cliff melt, but modelled backwasting patterns are in some cases unrealistic, as the distribution of melt rates would lead to progressive shallowing and disappearance of cliffs. Based on a unique multitemporal dataset of cliff topography and backwasting obtained from high-resolution terrestrial and aerial Structure-from-Motion analysis on Lirung Glacier in Nepal, it is apparent that cliffs exhibit a range of behaviours but most do not rapidly disappear. The patterns of evolution cannot be explained satisfactorily by atmospheric melt alone, and are moderated by the presence of supraglacial ponds at the base of cliffs and by cliff reburial with debris. Here, we document the distinct patterns of evolution including disappearance, growth and stability. We then use these observations to improve the grid-based energy balance model, implementing periodic updates of the cliff geometry resulting from modelled melt perpendicular to the ice surface. Based on a slope threshold, pixels can be reburied by debris or become debris-free. The effect of ponds are taken into account through enhanced melt rates in horizontal direction on pixels selected based on an algorithm considering distance to the water surface, slope and lake level. We use the dynamic model to first study the evolution of selected cliffs for which accurate, high resolution DEMs are available

  12. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-05

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling.

  13. Inverse Force Determination on a Small Scale Launch Vehicle Model Using a Dynamic Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Christina L.; Powell, Jessica M.; Ross, James C.

    2017-01-01

    A launch vehicle can experience large unsteady aerodynamic forces in the transonic regime that, while usually only lasting for tens of seconds during launch, could be devastating if structural components and electronic hardware are not designed to account for them. These aerodynamic loads are difficult to experimentally measure and even harder to computationally estimate. The current method for estimating buffet loads is through the use of a few hundred unsteady pressure transducers and wind tunnel test. Even with a large number of point measurements, the computed integrated load is not an accurate enough representation of the total load caused by buffeting. This paper discusses an attempt at using a dynamic balance to experimentally determine buffet loads on a generic scale hammer head launch vehicle model tested at NASA Ames Research Center's 11' x 11' transonic wind tunnel. To use a dynamic balance, the structural characteristics of the model needed to be identified so that the natural modal response could be and removed from the aerodynamic forces. A finite element model was created on a simplified version of the model to evaluate the natural modes of the balance flexures, assist in model design, and to compare to experimental data. Several modal tests were conducted on the model in two different configurations to check for non-linearity, and to estimate the dynamic characteristics of the model. The experimental results were used in an inverse force determination technique with a psuedo inverse frequency response function. Due to the non linearity, the model not being axisymmetric, and inconsistent data between the two shake tests from different mounting configuration, it was difficult to create a frequency response matrix that satisfied all input and output conditions for wind tunnel configuration to accurately predict unsteady aerodynamic loads.

  14. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Zheng; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

    2017-02-01

    The heat storage changes (Q t) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Q t for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Q t has been often neglected in many studies due to the lack of required water temperature data. A simple hysteresis model (Q t = a*Rn + b + c* dRn/dt) has been demonstrated to reasonably estimate Q t from the readily available net all wave radiation (Rn) and three locally calibrated coefficients (a-c) for lakes and reservoirs. As a follow-up study, we evaluated whether this hysteresis model could enable energy balance-based evaporation models to yield good evaporation estimates. The representative monthly evaporation data were compiled from published literature and used as ground-truth to evaluate three energy balance-based evaporation models for five lakes. The three models in different complexity are De Bruin-Keijman (DK), Penman, and a new model referred to as Duan-Bastiaanssen (DB). All three models require Q t as input. Each model was run in three scenarios differing in the input Q t (S1: measured Q t; S2: modelled Q t from the hysteresis model; S3: neglecting Q t) to evaluate the impact of Q t on the modelled evaporation. Evaluation showed that the modelled Q t agreed well with measured counterparts for all five lakes. It was confirmed that the hysteresis model with locally calibrated coefficients can predict Q t with good accuracy for the same lake. Using modelled Q t as inputs all three evaporation models yielded comparably good monthly evaporation to those using measured Q t as inputs and significantly better than those neglecting Q t for the five lakes. The DK model requiring minimum data generally performed the best, followed by the Penman and DB model. This study demonstrated that once three coefficients are locally calibrated using historical data the simple hysteresis model can offer

  15. Mass balance-based regression modeling of PAHs accumulation in urban soils, role of urban development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Chang, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contents in 68 soils samples collected at housing developments that represent different length of development periods across Beijing. Based on the data, we derived a mass balanced mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of PAH accumulations in urban soils as affected by the urban developments. The key parameters were estimated by fitting the modified mass balance model to the data of PAH concentrations vs. building age of the sampling green area. The total PAH concentrations would increase from the baseline of 267 ng g −1 to 3631 ng g −1 during the period of 1978–2048. It showed that the dynamic changes in the rates of accumulations of light and heavy PAH species were related to the shifting of sources of fuels, combustion efficiencies, and amounts of energy consumed during the course of development. - Highlights: • Introduced a mass balance model for soil PAHs accumulation with urbanization. • Reconstructed the historical data of PAH accumulation in soil of Beijing, China. • The soil PAH concentrations would be doubled in the following 40 years. • The composition of PAH emissions were shifting to light PAH species. - Introduced a regression modeling approach to predict the changes of PAH concentrations in urban soil

  16. Mechanical Balance Laws for Boussinesq Models of Surface Water Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Alfatih; Kalisch, Henrik

    2012-06-01

    Depth-integrated long-wave models, such as the shallow-water and Boussinesq equations, are standard fare in the study of small amplitude surface waves in shallow water. While the shallow-water theory features conservation of mass, momentum and energy for smooth solutions, mechanical balance equations are not widely used in Boussinesq scaling, and it appears that the expressions for many of these quantities are not known. This work presents a systematic derivation of mass, momentum and energy densities and fluxes associated with a general family of Boussinesq systems. The derivation is based on a reconstruction of the velocity field and the pressure in the fluid column below the free surface, and the derivation of differential balance equations which are of the same asymptotic validity as the evolution equations. It is shown that all these mechanical quantities can be expressed in terms of the principal dependent variables of the Boussinesq system: the surface excursion η and the horizontal velocity w at a given level in the fluid.

  17. Calibration of the heat balance model for prediction of car climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jícha Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the authors refer to development a heat balance model to predict car climate and power heat load. Model is developed in Modelica language using Dymola as interpreter. It is a dynamical system, which describes a heat exchange between car cabin and ambient. Inside a car cabin, there is considered heat exchange between air zone, interior and air-conditioning system. It is considered 1D heat transfer with a heat accumulation and a relative movement Sun respect to the car cabin, whilst car is moving. Measurements of the real operating conditions of gave us data for model calibration. The model was calibrated for Škoda Felicia parking-summer scenarios.

  18. Surface Energy Balance in Jakarta and Neighboring Regions As Simulated Using Fifth Mesoscale Model (MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to assess the surface energy balance particularly in terms of the computed surface energy and radiation balance and the development of boundary layer over Jakarta and Neighboring Regions (JNR by means of numerical model of fifth generation of Mesoscale Model (MM5. The MM5 with four domains of 9 kilometers in spatial resolution presenting the outermost and the innermost of JNR is utilized. The research focuses on the third and fourth domains covering the entire JNR. The description between radiation and energy balance at the surface is obtained from the model. The result showed that energy balance is higher in the city area during daytime. Meanwhile, energy components, e.g., surface sensible and latent heat flux showed that at the sea and in the city areas were higher than other areas. Moreover, ground flux showed eastern region was higher than others. In general, radiation and energy balance was higher in the daytime and lower in the nighttime for all regions. The calculation of Bowen Ratio, the ratio of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, was also higher in the city area, reflecting the dominations of urban and built-up land in the region. Meanwhile, Bowen Ratio in the rural area dominated by irrigated cropland was lower. It is consistent with changes of land cover properties, e.g. albedo, soil moisture, and thermal characteristics. In addition, the boundary layer is also higher in the city. Meanwhile western region dominated by suburban showed higher boundary layer instead of eastern region.

  19. Balanced Design of Safety Systems of CAREM Advanced Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grinblat, Pablo; Gimenez, Marcelo; Schlamp, Miguel

    2003-01-01

    Nuclear Power Plants must meet the performance that the market and the population demand in order to be part of the electricity supply industry.It is related mainly with the results of reactor's economy and safety.New advances in the methodology developed for reactor economic optimization analyzing its safety at an early engineering stage, aiming at balancing these important features of the design, are presented in this work.In particular, the coupling that appears when dimensioning the Emergency Injection System, the Residual Heat Removal System and the containment height of CAREM reactor is described.The new models appended to the computer code that embodies the methodology to balance de designs are shown.Finally the results obtained with the optimizations when applying it are presented.Furthermore, a criterion to establish the maximal diameter for acceptable breaks in RPV's penetrations arises from this work.The application of the methodology and the computer code developed turns out to prove the advantages they provide to reactor design so that the plants are properly balanced and optimized

  20. Synchronized mammalian cell culture: part II--population ensemble modeling and analysis for development of reproducible processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandt, Uwe; Barradas, Oscar Platas; Pörtner, Ralf; Zeng, An-Ping

    2015-01-01

    The consideration of inherent population inhomogeneities of mammalian cell cultures becomes increasingly important for systems biology study and for developing more stable and efficient processes. However, variations of cellular properties belonging to different sub-populations and their potential effects on cellular physiology and kinetics of culture productivity under bioproduction conditions have not yet been much in the focus of research. Culture heterogeneity is strongly determined by the advance of the cell cycle. The assignment of cell-cycle specific cellular variations to large-scale process conditions can be optimally determined based on the combination of (partially) synchronized cultivation under otherwise physiological conditions and subsequent population-resolved model adaptation. The first step has been achieved using the physical selection method of countercurrent flow centrifugal elutriation, recently established in our group for different mammalian cell lines which is presented in Part I of this paper series. In this second part, we demonstrate the successful adaptation and application of a cell-cycle dependent population balance ensemble model to describe and understand synchronized bioreactor cultivations performed with two model mammalian cell lines, AGE1.HNAAT and CHO-K1. Numerical adaptation of the model to experimental data allows for detection of phase-specific parameters and for determination of significant variations between different phases and different cell lines. It shows that special care must be taken with regard to the sampling frequency in such oscillation cultures to minimize phase shift (jitter) artifacts. Based on predictions of long-term oscillation behavior of a culture depending on its start conditions, optimal elutriation setup trade-offs between high cell yields and high synchronization efficiency are proposed. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  1. Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

    2017-04-01

    The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies

  2. Biofeedback for training balance and mobility tasks in older populations : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zijlstra, Agnes; Mancini, Martina; Chiari, Lorenzo; Zijlstra, Wiebren

    2010-01-01

    Context: An effective application of biofeedback for interventions in older adults with balance and mobility disorders may be compromised due to co-morbidity. Objective: To evaluate the feasibility and the effectiveness of biofeedback-based training of balance and/or mobility in older adults. Data

  3. Integrated model for line balancing with workstation inventory management

    OpenAIRE

    Dilip Roy; Debdip khan

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we address the optimization of an integrated line balancing process with workstation inventory management. While doing so, we have studied the interconnection between line balancing and its conversion process. Almost each and every moderate to large manufacturing industry depends on a long and integrated supply chain, consisting of inbound logistic, conversion process and outbound logistic. In this sense an approach addresses a very general problem of integrated line balancing....

  4. Balance control in elderly people with osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Li Hsu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is a prevalent health concern among older adults and is associated with an increased risk of falls that incur fracture, injury, or mortality. Identifying the risk factors of falls within this population is essential for the development of effective regimes for fall prevention. Studies have shown that muscle quality and good posture alignments are critical for balance control in elderly individuals. People with osteoporosis often have muscle weakness and increased spine kyphosis leading to vertebral fractures and poor balance control, or even falls. Therefore, improving muscle quality, strengthening weak muscles, and correcting postural alignment are essential elements for the prevention of falls and fractures in older adults with osteoporosis. This review reports the necessary information regarding the critical factors of balance control in older adults with osteoporosis, as well as testing the clinical innovations of exercise training to improve the long-term prognosis of osteoporosis in this vulnerable population.

  5. MICB gene diversity and balancing selection on its promoter region in Yao population in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiang; Liu, Xuexiang; Wei, Xiaomou; Meng, Yuming; Liu, Limin; Qin, Shini; Liu, Yanyu; Dai, Shengming

    2016-12-01

    To comprehensively examine the MICB gene polymorphism and identify its differences in Chinese Yao population from other ethnic groups, we investigated the polymorphism in the 5'-upstream regulation region (5'-URR), coding region (exons 2-4), and the 3'-untranslated region (3'-UTR) of MICB gene by using PCR-SBT method in 125 healthy unrelated Yao individuals in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Higher polymorphism was observed in the 5'-URR, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a two base pairs deletion at position -139/-138 were found in our study. Only five different variation sites, however, were detected in exons 2-4 and three were observed in the 3'-UTR. The minor allele frequencies of all variants were greater than 5%, except for rs3828916, rs3131639, rs45627734, rs113620316, rs779737471, and the variation at position +11803 in the 3'-UTR. The first nine SNPs of 5'-URR and rs1065075, rs1051788 of the coding region showed significant linkage disequilibrium with each other. Ten different MICB extended haplotypes (EH) encompassing the 5'-URR, exons 2-4, and 3'-UTR were found in this population, and the most frequent was EH1 (23.2%). We provided several evidences for balancing selection effect on the 5'-URR of MICB gene in Yao population. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Repression/depression of conjugative plasmids and their influence on the mutation-selection balance in static environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoav Atsmon-Raz

    Full Text Available We study the effect that conjugation-mediated Horizontal Gene Transfer (HGT has on the mutation-selection balance of a population in a static environment. We consider a model whereby a population of unicellular organisms, capable of conjugation, comes to mutation-selection balance in the presence of an antibiotic, which induces a first-order death rate constant [Formula: see text] for genomes that are not resistant. We explicitly take into consideration the repression/de-repression dynamics of the conjugative plasmid, and assume that a de-repressed plasmid remains temporarily de-repressed after copying itself into another cell. We assume that both repression and de-repression are characterized by first-order rate constants [Formula: see text]and [Formula: see text], respectively. We find that conjugation has a deleterious effect on the mean fitness of the population, suggesting that HGT does not provide a selective advantage in a static environment, but is rather only useful for adapting to new environments. This effect can be ameliorated by repression, suggesting that while HGT is not necessarily advantageous for a population in a static environment, its deleterious effect on the mean fitness can be negated via repression. Therefore, it is likely that HGT is much more advantageous in a dynamic landscape. Furthermore, in the limiting case of a vanishing spontaneous de-repression rate constant, we find that the fraction of conjugators in the population undergoes a phase transition as a function of population density. Below a critical population density, the fraction of conjugators is zero, while above this critical population density the fraction of conjugators rises continuously to one. Our model for conjugation-mediated HGT is related to models of infectious disease dynamics, where the conjugators play the role of the infected (I class, and the non-conjugators play the role of the susceptible (S class.

  7. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  8. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  9. Quasispecies theory in the context of population genetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilke Claus O

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A number of recent papers have cast doubt on the applicability of the quasispecies concept to virus evolution, and have argued that population genetics is a more appropriate framework to describe virus evolution than quasispecies theory. Results I review the pertinent literature, and demonstrate for a number of cases that the quasispecies concept is equivalent to the concept of mutation-selection balance developed in population genetics, and that there is no disagreement between the population genetics of haploid, asexually-replicating organisms and quasispecies theory. Conclusion Since quasispecies theory and mutation-selection balance are two sides of the same medal, the discussion about which is more appropriate to describe virus evolution is moot. In future work on virus evolution, we would do good to focus on the important questions, such as whether we can develop accurate, quantitative models of virus evolution, and to leave aside discussions about the relative merits of perfectly equivalent concepts.

  10. Improvement of a land surface model for accurate prediction of surface energy and water balances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki

    2009-02-01

    In order to predict energy and water balances between the biosphere and atmosphere accurately, sophisticated schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil and cloud (fog) water deposition on vegetation were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO 2 exchange process (SOLVEG2). Performance tests in arid areas showed that the above schemes have a significant effect on surface energy and water balances. The framework of the above schemes incorporated in the SOLVEG2 and instruction for running the model are documented. With further modifications of the model to implement the carbon exchanges between the vegetation and soil, deposition processes of materials on the land surface, vegetation stress-growth-dynamics etc., the model is suited to evaluate an effect of environmental loads to ecosystems by atmospheric pollutants and radioactive substances under climate changes such as global warming and drought. (author)

  11. The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Christian R.; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2017-11-01

    Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with the SNOWPACK model for the GrIS and over the period 1960-2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. Evaluations of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model-observation agreement. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt (0.16 m w.e. a-1) during 1990-2014. As a response, refreezing and run-off also indicate positive changes during this period (0.05 and 0.11 m w.e. a-1, respectively), where refreezing increases at only half the rate of run-off, implying that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. This pattern of refreeze and run-off is spatially variable. For instance, in the south-eastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. Modelled increase in refreezing leads to a decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases are more gradual and are associated with the migration of firn aquifers to higher elevations.

  12. A general population genetic framework for antagonistic selection that accounts for demography and recurrent mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connallon, Tim; Clark, Andrew G

    2012-04-01

    Antagonistic selection--where alleles at a locus have opposing effects on male and female fitness ("sexual antagonism") or between components of fitness ("antagonistic pleiotropy")--might play an important role in maintaining population genetic variation and in driving phylogenetic and genomic patterns of sexual dimorphism and life-history evolution. While prior theory has thoroughly characterized the conditions necessary for antagonistic balancing selection to operate, we currently know little about the evolutionary interactions between antagonistic selection, recurrent mutation, and genetic drift, which should collectively shape empirical patterns of genetic variation. To fill this void, we developed and analyzed a series of population genetic models that simultaneously incorporate these processes. Our models identify two general properties of antagonistically selected loci. First, antagonistic selection inflates heterozygosity and fitness variance across a broad parameter range--a result that applies to alleles maintained by balancing selection and by recurrent mutation. Second, effective population size and genetic drift profoundly affect the statistical frequency distributions of antagonistically selected alleles. The "efficacy" of antagonistic selection (i.e., its tendency to dominate over genetic drift) is extremely weak relative to classical models, such as directional selection and overdominance. Alleles meeting traditional criteria for strong selection (N(e)s > 1, where N(e) is the effective population size, and s is a selection coefficient for a given sex or fitness component) may nevertheless evolve as if neutral. The effects of mutation and demography may generate population differences in overall levels of antagonistic fitness variation, as well as molecular population genetic signatures of balancing selection.

  13. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  14. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  15. Modelling of rational economic proportions of the balance sheet structure of the petrochemical enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Tsvetkova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides the assessment of the balance sheet structure of rival companies of a petrochemical complex of the Russian Federation. J. Aubert-Kriye's method is chosen as a main methodical tool. Practical demonstration of the method is offered on the example of the enterprises of petrochemical business of PJSC “Sibur”, PJSC “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” and JSC “Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant”. The analysis of balance sheets showed that the enterprises have elements of irrational structure. “Sibur” differs in a low share of owner’s equity and a high share of long-term liabilities. “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” is characterized by the high share of owner’s equity which use for the purposes of development of the company and it is more expensive in comparison with liabilities. “Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant” has excessive values of liquidity rates that demonstrates accumulation of a money, their derivation in receivables. At the same time, processes of ongoing investment in upgrade of the equipment and expansion of capacities require cause necessity of support of a rational balance sheet structure of the enterprises of a petrochemical complex. On the example of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” modeling of a rational balance sheet structure of the company is carried out. The sequence of calculations included performing diagnostics of structural distribution of current assets and sources of means; determination of structure of financial and active elements of the entity; establishment of permissible limit of change of basic proportions and ratios by criterion of solvency and financial stability. Modeling of structure of a liability and current assets on the basis of the J. Aubert-Kriye's method showed a possibility of improvement of economic indicators of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim”. Further determination of range of tolerance for elements of the liabilities and current assets will allow to provide balance of economic proportions and

  16. The transposition of the balance sheet to financial and functional balance sheet. Research and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liana GĂDĂU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available As the title suggests, through this paper we want to highlight the necessity of treating again the content and the form of the balance sheet in order to adapt it to a more efficient analysis, this way surpassing the informational valences of the classic balance sheet. The functional and the financial balance sheet will be taken into account. These models of balance sheet permit the complex analyses regarding the solvability or the bankruptcy risk of an enterprise to take place, and also other analyses, like the analysis of the structure and the financial/ functional equilibrium, the analysis of the company on operating cycles and their role in the functioning of the company. Through the particularities offered by each of these two models of balance sheet, we want to present the advantages of a superior informing. This content of this material is based on a vast investigation of the specialized literature.

  17. Simulating the carbon balance in reclaimed forest ecosystems with the FORECAST model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welham, C. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Forest Sciences, Forest Ecosystem Simulation Group; ForRx Consulting, Belcarra, BC (Canada); 3GreenTree Ecosystem Services Ltd., Belcarra, BC (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Large emission sources are beginning to report their carbon footprint on an annual basis as a result of government mandates, shareholder demand for disclosure of a company's risk to climate change, and as part of corporate social responsibility initiatives. Oil sands mining is a carbon intensive activity from the perspective of carbon dioxide emissions. The intensity of carbon emissions can be mitigated through technological and process innovations. However, reclamation is the only mining-related activity that directly removes atmospheric carbon dioxide. This presentation described a modeling exercise that had 3 principal objectives, notably to simulate the carbon balance in a developing reclaimed upland forest ecosystem; to explore the relative change in carbon pools over time; and to compare the carbon balance of the reclaimed ecosystem to its natural analogue. The presentation provided a description of the model and methodology and discussed the simulation protocol. Imperial Oil's Kearl Lake operation, which was used as a test case, showed that approximately 83,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare can be sequestered per year as a result of reclamation. tabs., figs.

  18. Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.

  19. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  20. Development of the ECLSS Sizing Analysis Tool and ARS Mass Balance Model Using Microsoft Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlothlin, E. P.; Yeh, H. Y.; Lin, C. H.

    1999-01-01

    The development of a Microsoft Excel-compatible Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) sizing analysis "tool" for conceptual design of Mars human exploration missions makes it possible for a user to choose a certain technology in the corresponding subsystem. This tool estimates the mass, volume, and power requirements of every technology in a subsystem and the system as a whole. Furthermore, to verify that a design sized by the ECLSS Sizing Tool meets the mission requirements and integrates properly, mass balance models that solve for component throughputs of such ECLSS systems as the Water Recovery System (WRS) and Air Revitalization System (ARS) must be developed. The ARS Mass Balance Model will be discussed in this paper.

  1. Targets of balancing selection in the human genome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrés, Aida M; Hubisz, Melissa J; Indap, Amit

    2009-01-01

    Balancing selection is potentially an important biological force for maintaining advantageous genetic diversity in populations, including variation that is responsible for long-term adaptation to the environment. By serving as a means to maintain genetic variation, it may be particularly relevant...... to maintaining phenotypic variation in natural populations. Nevertheless, its prevalence and specific targets in the human genome remain largely unknown. We have analyzed the patterns of diversity and divergence of 13,400 genes in two human populations using an unbiased single-nucleotide polymorphism data set......, a genome-wide approach, and a method that incorporates demography in neutrality tests. We identified an unbiased catalog of genes with signatures of long-term balancing selection, which includes immunity genes as well as genes encoding keratins and membrane channels; the catalog also shows enrichment...

  2. Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

    2016-01-01

    We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.

  3. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  4. Modeling, Simulation, and Measurement of Balanced Antipodal Vivaldi (BAV) Antennas for Fully Polarimetric Forward-Looking Ground-Penetrating Radar (FLGPR) Receive Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Current Vivaldi Elements and Replacement Antennas Considered The majority of the design process was conducted through modeling and simulation ...ARL-TR-8111 ● AUG 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Modeling, Simulation , and Measurement of Balanced Antipodal Vivaldi (BAV...ARL-TR-8111 ● AUG 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Modeling, Simulation , and Measurement of Balanced Antipodal Vivaldi (BAV) Antennas for

  5. Monthly water balance model for climate change analysis in agriculture with R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalicz, Péter; Herceg, András; Gribovszki, Zoltán

    2015-04-01

    For Hungary regional climate models projections suggest a warmer climate and some changes in annual precipitation distribution. These changes force the whole agrarian sector to consider the traditional cropping technologies. This situation is more serious in forestry because some forest populations are on their xeric distributional limits (Gálos et. al, 2014). Additionally, a decision has an impact sometimes longer than one hundred years. To support the stakeholder there is a project which develops a GIS (Geographic Information System) based decision support system. Hydrology plays significant role in this system because water is often one of the most important limiting factor in Hungary. A modified Thorntwaite-type monthly water balance model was choosen to produce hydrological estimations for the GIS modules. This model is calibrated with the available data between 2000 and 2008. Beside other meteorological data we used mainly an actual evapotranspiration map in the calibration phase, which was derived with the Complementary-relationship-based evapotranspiration mapping (CREMAP; Szilágyi and Kovács, 2011) technique. The calibration process is pixel based and it has several stochastic steps. We try to find a flexible solution for the model implementation which easy to automatize and can be integrate in GIS systems. The open source R programming language was selected which well satisfied these demands. The result of this development is summarized as an R package. This publication has been supported by AGRARKLIMA.2 VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034 project. References Gálos B., Antal V., Czimber K., Mátyás Cs. (2014) Forest ecosystems, sewage works and droughts - possibilities for climate change adaptation. In: Santamarta J.C., Hernandez-Gutiérrez L.E., Arraiza M.P. (eds) 2014. Natural Hazards and Climate Change/Riesgos Naturales y Cambio Climático. Madrid: Colegio de Ingenieros de Montes. ISBN 978-84-617-1060-7, D.L. TF 565-2014, 91-104 pp Szilágyi J., Kovács Á. (2011

  6. Evaluation of three energy balance-based evaporation models for estimating monthly evaporation for five lakes using derived heat storage changes from a hysteresis model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, Z.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    The heat storage changes (Qt) can be a significant component of the energy balance in lakes, and it is important to account for Qt for reasonable estimation of evaporation at monthly and finer timescales if the energy balance-based evaporation models are used. However, Qt has been often neglected in

  7. Assessing harmonic current source modelling and power definitions in balanced and unbalanced networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson-Hope, Gary; Stemmet, W.C. [Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Cape Town Campus, Cape Town (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess the DlgSILENT PowerFactory software power definitions (indices) in terms of phase and sequence components for balanced and unbalanced networks when harmonic distortion is present and to compare its results to hand calculations done, following recommendation made by the IEEE Working Group on this topic. This paper also includes the development of a flowchart for calculating power indices in balanced and unbalanced three-phase networks when non-sinusoidal voltages and currents are present. A further purpose is to determine how two industrial grade harmonic analysis software packages (DlgSILENT and ERACS) model three-phase harmonic sources used for current penetration studies and to compare their results when applied to a network. From the investigations, another objective was to develop a methodology for modelling harmonic current sources based on a spectrum obtained from measurements. Three case studies were conducted and the assessment and developed methodologies were shown to be effective. (Author)

  8. Work-life balance culture, work-home interaction, and emotional exhaustion: a structural equation modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitzsche, Anika; Pfaff, Holger; Jung, Julia; Driller, Elke

    2013-01-01

    To examine the relationships among employees' emotional exhaustion, positive and negative work-home interaction, and perceived work-life balance culture in companies. Data for this study were collected through online surveys of employees from companies in the micro- and nanotechnology sectors (N = 509). A structural equation modeling analysis was performed. A company culture perceived by employees as supportive of their work-life balance was found to have both a direct negative effect on emotional exhaustion and an indirect negative effect meditated by negative work-home interaction. In addition, whereas negative work-home interaction associated positively with emotional exhaustion, positive work-home interaction had no significant effect. The direct and indirect relationship between work-life balance culture and emotional exhaustion has practical implications for health promotion in companies.

  9. Population genomic scan for candidate signatures of balancing selection to guide antigen characterization in malaria parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amambua-Ngwa, Alfred; Tetteh, Kevin K A; Manske, Magnus; Gomez-Escobar, Natalia; Stewart, Lindsay B; Deerhake, M Elizabeth; Cheeseman, Ian H; Newbold, Christopher I; Holder, Anthony A; Knuepfer, Ellen; Janha, Omar; Jallow, Muminatou; Campino, Susana; Macinnis, Bronwyn; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P; Conway, David J

    2012-01-01

    Acquired immunity in vertebrates maintains polymorphisms in endemic pathogens, leading to identifiable signatures of balancing selection. To comprehensively survey for genes under such selection in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, we generated paired-end short-read sequences of parasites in clinical isolates from an endemic Gambian population, which were mapped to the 3D7 strain reference genome to yield high-quality genome-wide coding sequence data for 65 isolates. A minority of genes did not map reliably, including the hypervariable var, rifin, and stevor families, but 5,056 genes (90.9% of all in the genome) had >70% sequence coverage with minimum read depth of 5 for at least 50 isolates, of which 2,853 genes contained 3 or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for analysis of polymorphic site frequency spectra. Against an overall background of negatively skewed frequencies, as expected from historical population expansion combined with purifying selection, the outlying minority of genes with signatures indicating exceptionally intermediate frequencies were identified. Comparing genes with different stage-specificity, such signatures were most common in those with peak expression at the merozoite stage that invades erythrocytes. Members of clag, PfMC-2TM, surfin, and msp3-like gene families were highly represented, the strongest signature being in the msp3-like gene PF10_0355. Analysis of msp3-like transcripts in 45 clinical and 11 laboratory adapted isolates grown to merozoite-containing schizont stages revealed surprisingly low expression of PF10_0355. In diverse clonal parasite lines the protein product was expressed in a minority of mature schizonts (<1% in most lines and ∼10% in clone HB3), and eight sub-clones of HB3 cultured separately had an intermediate spectrum of positive frequencies (0.9 to 7.5%), indicating phase variable expression of this polymorphic antigen. This and other identified targets of balancing selection are now

  10. Population genomic scan for candidate signatures of balancing selection to guide antigen characterization in malaria parasites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Amambua-Ngwa

    Full Text Available Acquired immunity in vertebrates maintains polymorphisms in endemic pathogens, leading to identifiable signatures of balancing selection. To comprehensively survey for genes under such selection in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, we generated paired-end short-read sequences of parasites in clinical isolates from an endemic Gambian population, which were mapped to the 3D7 strain reference genome to yield high-quality genome-wide coding sequence data for 65 isolates. A minority of genes did not map reliably, including the hypervariable var, rifin, and stevor families, but 5,056 genes (90.9% of all in the genome had >70% sequence coverage with minimum read depth of 5 for at least 50 isolates, of which 2,853 genes contained 3 or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs for analysis of polymorphic site frequency spectra. Against an overall background of negatively skewed frequencies, as expected from historical population expansion combined with purifying selection, the outlying minority of genes with signatures indicating exceptionally intermediate frequencies were identified. Comparing genes with different stage-specificity, such signatures were most common in those with peak expression at the merozoite stage that invades erythrocytes. Members of clag, PfMC-2TM, surfin, and msp3-like gene families were highly represented, the strongest signature being in the msp3-like gene PF10_0355. Analysis of msp3-like transcripts in 45 clinical and 11 laboratory adapted isolates grown to merozoite-containing schizont stages revealed surprisingly low expression of PF10_0355. In diverse clonal parasite lines the protein product was expressed in a minority of mature schizonts (<1% in most lines and ∼10% in clone HB3, and eight sub-clones of HB3 cultured separately had an intermediate spectrum of positive frequencies (0.9 to 7.5%, indicating phase variable expression of this polymorphic antigen. This and other identified targets of balancing

  11. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  12. Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 3. The large catchment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Viney, Neil R.; Jeevaraj, Charles G.

    1996-03-01

    This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1-5 km2 in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing.The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km2) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.

  13. Use of Nintendo Wii Balance Board for posturographic analysis of Multiple Sclerosis patients with minimal balance impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severini, Giacomo; Straudi, Sofia; Pavarelli, Claudia; Da Roit, Marco; Martinuzzi, Carlotta; Di Marco Pizzongolo, Laura; Basaglia, Nino

    2017-03-11

    The Wii Balance Board (WBB) has been proposed as an inexpensive alternative to laboratory-grade Force Plates (FP) for the instrumented assessment of balance. Previous studies have reported a good validity and reliability of the WBB for estimating the path length of the Center of Pressure. Here we extend this analysis to 18 balance related features extracted from healthy subjects (HS) and individuals affected by Multiple Sclerosis (MS) with minimal balance impairment. Eighteen MS patients with minimal balance impairment (Berg Balance Scale 53.3 ± 3.1) and 18 age-matched HS were recruited in this study. All subjects underwent instrumented balance tests on the FP and WBB consisting of quiet standing with the eyes open and closed. Linear correlation analysis and Bland-Altman plots were used to assess relations between path lengths estimated using the WBB and the FP. 18 features were extracted from the instrumented balance tests. Statistical analysis was used to assess significant differences between the features estimated using the WBB and the FP and between HS and MS. The Spearman correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the validity and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the reliability of WBB measures with respect to the FP. Classifiers based on Support Vector Machines trained on the FP and WBB features were used to assess the ability of both devices to discriminate between HS and MS. We found a significant linear relation between the path lengths calculated from the WBB and the FP indicating an overestimation of these parameters in the WBB. We observed significant differences in the path lengths between FP and WBB in most conditions. However, significant differences were not found for the majority of the other features. We observed the same significant differences between the HS and MS populations across the two measurement systems. Validity and reliability were moderate-to-high for all the analyzed features. Both the FP and WBB

  14. The Association of Flexibility, Balance, and Lumbar Strength with Balance Ability: Risk of Falls in Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio J. Martínez-López Emilio

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study was to determine the effects of a proprioceptive training program on older adults, as well as to analyze the association between flexibility, balance and lumbar strength (physical fitness test with balance ability and fall risk (functional balance tests. This study was a controlled, longitudinal trial with a 12-week follow-up period. Subjects from a population of older adults were allocated to the intervention group (n = 28 or to the usual care (control group (n = 26. Subjects performed proprioceptive training twice weekly (6 specific exercises with Swiss ball and BOSU. Each session included 50 minutes (10 minutes of warm-up with slow walk, 10 minutes of mobility and stretching exercises, 30 minutes of proprioceptive exercises. The outcome variables were physical fitness (lower-body flexibility, hip-joint mobility, dynamic balance, static balance, and lumbar strength and functional balance (Berg scale and Tinetti test. The experimental group obtained significantly higher values than the control group in lower-body flexibility, dynamic balance, and lumbar strength (p = 0.019, p < 0.001, and p = 0.034 respectively. Hip-joint mobility, dynamic balance, and lumbar strength were positively associated with balance ability (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, and p = 0.014, respectively and the prevention of falls (p = 0.001, p < 0.001, and p = 0.017 respectively. These findings suggest that a 12-week proprioception program intervention (twice a week significantly improves flexibility, balance, and lumbar strength in older adults. Hip-joint mobility, dynamic balance and lumbar strength are positively associated to balance ability and the risk of falls in older adults. This proprioceptive training does not show a significant improvement in hip-joint mobility or static balance.

  15. Toll-like receptor variation in the bottlenecked population of the Seychelles warbler: computer simulations see the 'ghost of selection past' and quantify the 'drift debt'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, D L; Phillips, K P; Richardson, D S; van Oosterhout, C

    2017-07-01

    Balancing selection can maintain immunogenetic variation within host populations, but detecting its signal in a postbottlenecked population is challenging due to the potentially overriding effects of drift. Toll-like receptor genes (TLRs) play a fundamental role in vertebrate immune defence and are predicted to be under balancing selection. We previously characterized variation at TLR loci in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis), an endemic passerine that has undergone a historical bottleneck. Five of seven TLR loci were polymorphic, which is in sharp contrast to the low genomewide variation observed. However, standard population genetic statistical methods failed to detect a contemporary signature of selection at any TLR locus. We examined whether the observed TLR polymorphism could be explained by neutral evolution, simulating the population's demography in the software DIYABC. This showed that the posterior distributions of mutation rates had to be unrealistically high to explain the observed genetic variation. We then conducted simulations with an agent-based model using typical values for the mutation rate, which indicated that weak balancing selection has acted on the three TLR genes. The model was able to detect evidence of past selection elevating TLR polymorphism in the prebottleneck populations, but was unable to discern any effects of balancing selection in the contemporary population. Our results show drift is the overriding evolutionary force that has shaped TLR variation in the contemporary Seychelles warbler population, and the observed TLR polymorphisms might be merely the 'ghost of selection past'. Forecast models predict immunogenetic variation in this species will continue to be eroded in the absence of contemporary balancing selection. Such 'drift debt' occurs when a gene pool has not yet reached its new equilibrium level of polymorphism, and this loss could be an important threat to many recently bottlenecked populations. © 2017

  16. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  17. Power Balance Modeling of Local Helicity Injection for Non-Solenoidal ST Startup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weberski, J. D.; Barr, J. L.; Bongard, M. W.; Fonck, R. J.; Perry, J. M.; Reusch, J. A.

    2017-10-01

    A zero-dimensional power balance model for predicting Ip(t) for Local Helicity Injection (LHI) discharges has been used to interpret experimental results from recent experimental campaigns using high-field-side (HFS) helicity injection. This model quantifies LHI's effective drive (Veff) through helicity balance while enforcing the Taylor relaxation current limit and tracking inductive effects to determine Ip(t) . Recent analysis of HFS LHI discharges indicate LHI is the dominant source of drive and provides Veff up to 1.3 V while geometric effects and inductive drive provide < 0.1 V throughout much of the discharge. In contrast to previous analysis of low-field-side (LFS) LHI discharges, which were driven by Veff = 0.3 V and 2.0 V from geometric effects and inductive drive. A significant remaining uncertainty in the model is the resistive dissipation of LHI discharges. This requires greater understanding of LHI confinement scaling and impurity content, which are currently under investigation. However, the model and experimental Ip(t) exhibit good agreement for parameters consistent with previous experimental findings. Extrapolation of plasma parameters and shaping from recent experiments allow for the model to project the performance of LHI systems. These projections indicate Ip 0.3 MA can be accessed on Pegasus via HFS LHI through changes to injector geometry to provide more Veff. This regime can be accessed via a LFS system by increasing the Taylor relaxation current limit early in the discharge. Work supported by US DOE Grants DE-FG02-96ER54375 and DE-SC0006928.

  18. A balance principle approach for modeling phase transformation kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, M.; Krauss, G.; Jou, H.J.

    1995-01-01

    A balance principle is offered to model volume fraction kinetics of phase transformation kinetics at a continuum level. This microbalance provides a differential equation for transformation kinetics which is coupled to the differential equations governing the mechanical and thermal aspects of the process. Application here is restricted to diffusive transformations for the sake of clarity, although the principle is discussed for martensitic phase transitions as well. Avrami-type kinetics are shown to result from a special class of energy functions. An illustrative example using a 0.5% C Chromium steel demonstrates how TTT and CCT curves can be generated using a particularly simple effective energy function. (orig.)

  19. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  20. Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhoff, D.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

  1. Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Sarah N.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2017-12-01

    In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model.Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the

  2. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  3. Fiction and reality in the modelling world - Balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, P.; Madsen, H.

    1999-01-01

    Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable by calibr......Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable...... by calibration/verification on the basis of the data series available, which generates elements of sheer guessing - unless the universality of the model is be based on induction, i.e. experience from the sum of all previous investigations. There is a need to deal more explicitly with uncertainty...

  4. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  5. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  6. Streamline-concentration balance model for in-situ uranium leaching and site restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bommer, P.M.; Schechter, R.S.; Humenick, M.J.

    1981-03-01

    This work presents two computer models. One describes in-situ uranium leaching and the other describes post leaching site restoration. Both models use a streamline generator to set up the flow field over the reservoir. The leaching model then uses the flow data in a concentration balance along each streamline coupled with the appropriate reaction kinetics to calculate uranium production. The restoration model uses the same procedure except that binary cation exchange is used as the restoring mechanism along each streamline and leaching cation clean up is simulated. The mathematical basis for each model is shown in detail along with the computational schemes used. Finally, the two models have been used with several data sets to point out their capabilities and to illustrate important leaching and restoration parameters and schemes

  7. Streamline-concentration balance model for in situ uranium leaching and site restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bommer, P.M.

    1979-01-01

    This work presents two computer models. One describes in situ uranium leaching and the other describes post leaching site restoration. Both models use a streamline generator to set up the flow field over the reservoir. The leaching model then uses the flow data in a concentration balance along each streamline coupled with the appropriate reaction kinetics to calculate uranium production. The restoration model uses the same procedure ecept that binary cation exchange is used as the restoring mechanism along each streamline and leaching cation clean up is stimulated. The mathematical basis for each model is shown in detail along with the computational schemes used. Finally, the two models have been used with several data sets to point out their capabilities and to illustrate important leaching and restoration parameters and schemes

  8. Balance velocities of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joughin, I.; Fahnestock, M.; Ekholm, Simon

    1997-01-01

    We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetery data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail......, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning....

  9. NETPATH-WIN: an interactive user version of the mass-balance model, NETPATH

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Kadi, A. I.; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, P.

    2011-01-01

    NETPATH-WIN is an interactive user version of NETPATH, an inverse geochemical modeling code used to find mass-balance reaction models that are consistent with the observed chemical and isotopic composition of waters from aquatic systems. NETPATH-WIN was constructed to migrate NETPATH applications into the Microsoft WINDOWS® environment. The new version facilitates model utilization by eliminating difficulties in data preparation and results analysis of the DOS version of NETPATH, while preserving all of the capabilities of the original version. Through example applications, the note describes some of the features of NETPATH-WIN as applied to adjustment of radiocarbon data for geochemical reactions in groundwater systems.

  10. Effects of balance training using a virtual-reality system in older fallers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Gustavo; Boersma, Derek; Loza-Diaz, Griselda; Hassan, Sanobar; Suarez, Hamlet; Geisinger, Dario; Suriyaarachchi, Pushpa; Sharma, Anita; Demontiero, Oddom

    2013-01-01

    Poor balance is considered a challenging risk factor for falls in older adults. Therefore, innovative interventions for balance improvement in this population are greatly needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a new virtual-reality system (the Balance Rehabilitation Unit [BRU]) on balance, falls, and fear of falling in a population of community-dwelling older subjects with a known history of falls. In this study, 60 community-dwelling older subjects were recruited after being diagnosed with poor balance at the Falls and Fractures Clinic, Nepean Hospital (Penrith, NSW, Australia). Subjects were randomly assigned to either the BRU-training or control groups. Both groups received the usual falls prevention care. The BRU-training group attended balance training (two sessions/week for 6 weeks) using an established protocol. Change in balance parameters was assessed in the BRU-training group at the end of their 6-week training program. Both groups were assessed 9 months after their initial assessment (month 0). Adherence to the BRU-training program was 97%. Balance parameters were significantly improved in the BRU-training group (P falls and lower levels of fear of falling (P balance that were improved by BRU training showed a decline after 9 months post-training. In conclusion, BRU training is an effective and well-accepted intervention to improve balance, increase confidence, and prevent falls in the elderly. PMID:23467506

  11. Towards an Understanding of Atmospheric Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    During a 35 year period I published 30+ pear-reviewed papers and technical reports concerning, in part or whole, the topic of atmospheric balance. Most used normal modes, either implicitly or explicitly, as the appropriate diagnostic tool. This included examination of nonlinear balance in several different global and regional models using a variety of novel metrics as well as development of nonlinear normal mode initialization schemes for particular global and regional models. Recent studies also included the use of adjoint models and OSSEs to answer some questions regarding balance. lwill summarize what I learned through those many works, but also present what l see as remaining issues to be considered or investigated.

  12. NREL Offshore Balance-of-System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maness, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maples, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has investigated the potential for 20% of nationwide electricity demand to be generated from wind by 2030 and, more recently, 35% by 2050. Achieving this level of wind power generation may require the development and deployment of offshore wind technologies. DOE (2008) has indicated that reaching these 2030 and 2050 scenarios could result in approximately 10% and 20%, respectively, of wind energy generation to come from offshore resources. By the end of 2013, 6.5 gigawatts of offshore wind were installed globally. The first U.S. project, the Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of Rhode Island, has recently begun operations. One of the major reasons that offshore wind development in the United States is lagging behind global trends is the high capital expenditures required. An understanding of the costs and associated drivers of building a commercial-scale offshore wind plant in the United States will inform future research and help U.S. investors feel more confident in offshore wind development. In an effort to explain these costs, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed the Offshore Balance-of-System model.

  13. Modeling the Surface Energy Balance of the Core of an Old Mediterranean City: Marseille.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemonsu, A.; Grimmond, C. S. B.; Masson, V.

    2004-02-01

    The Town Energy Balance (TEB) model, which parameterizes the local-scale energy and water exchanges between urban surfaces and the atmosphere by treating the urban area as a series of urban canyons, coupled to the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) scheme, was run in offline mode for Marseille, France. TEB's performance is evaluated with observations of surface temperatures and surface energy balance fluxes collected during the field experiments to constrain models of atmospheric pollution and transport of emissions (ESCOMPTE) urban boundary layer (UBL) campaign. Particular attention was directed to the influence of different surface databases, used for input parameters, on model predictions. Comparison of simulated canyon temperatures with observations resulted in improvements to TEB parameterizations by increasing the ventilation. Evaluation of the model with wall, road, and roof surface temperatures gave good results. The model succeeds in simulating a sensible heat flux larger than heat storage, as observed. A sensitivity comparison using generic dense city parameters, derived from the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land cover database, and those from a surface database developed specifically for the Marseille city center shows the importance of correctly documenting the urban surface. Overall, the TEB scheme is shown to be fairly robust, consistent with results from previous studies.

  14. Computational modeling to predict nitrogen balance during acute metabolic decompensation in patients with urea cycle disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Erin L; Hall, Kevin D; McGuire, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Nutritional management of acute metabolic decompensation in amino acid inborn errors of metabolism (AA IEM) aims to restore nitrogen balance. While nutritional recommendations have been published, they have never been rigorously evaluated. Furthermore, despite these recommendations, there is a wide variation in the nutritional strategies employed amongst providers, particularly regarding the inclusion of parenteral lipids for protein-free caloric support. Since randomized clinical trials during acute metabolic decompensation are difficult and potentially dangerous, mathematical modeling of metabolism can serve as a surrogate for the preclinical evaluation of nutritional interventions aimed at restoring nitrogen balance during acute decompensation in AA IEM. A validated computational model of human macronutrient metabolism was adapted to predict nitrogen balance in response to various nutritional interventions in a simulated patient with a urea cycle disorder (UCD) during acute metabolic decompensation due to dietary non-adherence or infection. The nutritional interventions were constructed from published recommendations as well as clinical anecdotes. Overall, dextrose alone (DEX) was predicted to be better at restoring nitrogen balance and limiting nitrogen excretion during dietary non-adherence and infection scenarios, suggesting that the published recommended nutritional strategy involving dextrose and parenteral lipids (ISO) may be suboptimal. The implications for patients with AA IEM are that the medical course during acute metabolic decompensation may be influenced by the choice of protein-free caloric support. These results are also applicable to intensive care patients undergoing catabolism (postoperative phase or sepsis), where parenteral nutritional support aimed at restoring nitrogen balance may be more tailored regarding metabolic fuel selection.

  15. Integrated model for line balancing with workstation inventory management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Roy

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we address the optimization of an integrated line balancing process with workstation inventory management. While doing so, we have studied the interconnection between line balancing and its conversion process. Almost each and every moderate to large manufacturing industry depends on a long and integrated supply chain, consisting of inbound logistic, conversion process and outbound logistic. In this sense an approach addresses a very general problem of integrated line balancing. Research works reported in the literature so far mainly deals with minimization of cost for inbound and outbound logistic subsystems. In most of the cases conversion process has been ignored. We suggest a generic approach for linking the balancing of the line of production in the conversion area with the customers’ rate of demand in the market and for configuring the related stock chambers. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to translate the underlying problem in the form of mixed nonlinear programming problem and design the optimum supply chain so that the total inventory cost and the cost of balancing loss of the conversion process is jointly minimized and ideal cycle time of the production process is determined along with ideal sizes of the stock chambers. A numerical example has been added to demonstrate the suitability of our approach.

  16. Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: an appraisal of connectionist models on the balance scale task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinlan, P.T.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Jansen, B.R.J.; Booij, O.; Rendell, M.

    2007-01-01

    The present paper re-appraises connectionist attempts to explain how human cognitive development appears to progress through a series of sequential stages. Models of performance on the Piagetian balance scale task are the focus of attention. Limitations of these models are discussed and replications

  17. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  18. Derivation of Markov processes that violate detailed balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Julian

    2018-03-01

    Time-reversal symmetry of the microscopic laws dictates that the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process must obey the condition of detailed balance. However, cyclic Markov processes that do not admit equilibrium distributions with detailed balance are often used to model systems driven out of equilibrium by external agents. I show that for a Markov model without detailed balance, an extended Markov model can be constructed, which explicitly includes the degrees of freedom for the driving agent and satisfies the detailed balance condition. The original cyclic Markov model for the driven system is then recovered as an approximation at early times by summing over the degrees of freedom for the driving agent. I also show that the widely accepted expression for the entropy production in a cyclic Markov model is actually a time derivative of an entropy component in the extended model. Further, I present an analytic expression for the entropy component that is hidden in the cyclic Markov model.

  19. Gene Therapy Restores Balance and Auditory Functions in a Mouse Model of Usher Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isgrig, Kevin; Shteamer, Jack W; Belyantseva, Inna A; Drummond, Meghan C; Fitzgerald, Tracy S; Vijayakumar, Sarath; Jones, Sherri M; Griffith, Andrew J; Friedman, Thomas B; Cunningham, Lisa L; Chien, Wade W

    2017-03-01

    Dizziness and hearing loss are among the most common disabilities. Many forms of hereditary balance and hearing disorders are caused by abnormal development of stereocilia, mechanosensory organelles on the apical surface of hair cells in the inner ear. The deaf whirler mouse, a model of human Usher syndrome (manifested by hearing loss, dizziness, and blindness), has a recessive mutation in the whirlin gene, which renders hair cell stereocilia short and dysfunctional. In this study, wild-type whirlin cDNA was delivered to the inner ears of neonatal whirler mice using adeno-associated virus serotype 2/8 (AAV8-whirlin) by injection into the posterior semicircular canal. Unilateral whirlin gene therapy injection was able to restore balance function as well as improve hearing in whirler mice for at least 4 months. Our data indicate that gene therapy is likely to become a treatment option for hereditary disorders of balance and hearing. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Explicit validation of a surface shortwave radiation balance model over snow-covered complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, N.; Löwe, H.; Mayer, B.; Lehning, M.

    2010-09-01

    A model that computes the surface radiation balance for all sky conditions in complex terrain is presented. The spatial distribution of direct and diffuse sky radiation is determined from observations of incident global radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at a single measurement location. Incident radiation under cloudless sky is spatially derived from a parameterization of the atmospheric transmittance. Direct and diffuse sky radiation for all sky conditions are obtained by decomposing the measured global radiation value. Spatial incident radiation values under all atmospheric conditions are computed by adjusting the spatial radiation values obtained from the parametric model with the radiation components obtained from the decomposition model at the measurement site. Topographic influences such as shading are accounted for. The radiosity approach is used to compute anisotropic terrain reflected radiation. Validations of the shortwave radiation balance model are presented in detail for a day with cloudless sky. For a day with overcast sky a first validation is presented. Validation of a section of the horizon line as well as of individual radiation components is performed with high-quality measurements. A new measurement setup was designed to determine terrain reflected radiation. There is good agreement between the measurements and the modeled terrain reflected radiation values as well as with incident radiation values. A comparison of the model with a fully three-dimensional radiative transfer Monte Carlo model is presented. That validation reveals a good agreement between modeled radiation values.

  1. Bet-hedging in bacteriocin producing Escherichia coli populations: the single cell perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramoglu, Bihter; Toubiana, David; van Vliet, Simon; Inglis, R. Fredrik; Shnerb, Nadav; Gillor, Osnat

    2017-02-01

    Production of public goods in biological systems is often a collaborative effort that may be detrimental to the producers. It is therefore sustainable only if a small fraction of the population shoulders the cost while the majority reap the benefits. We modelled this scenario using Escherichia coli populations producing colicins, an antibiotic that kills producer cells’ close relatives. Colicin expression is a costly trait, and it has been proposed that only a small fraction of the population actively expresses the antibiotic. Colicinogenic populations were followed at the single-cell level using time-lapse microscopy, and showed two distinct, albeit dynamic, subpopulations: the majority silenced colicin expression, while a small fraction of elongated, slow-growing cells formed colicin-expressing hotspots, placing a significant burden on expressers. Moreover, monitoring lineages of individual colicinogenic cells showed stochastic switching between expressers and non-expressers. Hence, colicin expressers may be engaged in risk-reducing strategies—or bet-hedging—as they balance the cost of colicin production with the need to repel competitors. To test the bet-hedging strategy in colicin-mediated interactions, competitions between colicin-sensitive and producer cells were simulated using a numerical model, demonstrating a finely balanced expression range that is essential to sustaining the colicinogenic population.

  2. Modelling and computing the peaks of carbon emission with balanced growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu; Wang, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We use a more practical utility function to quantify the society’s welfare. • A so-called discontinuous Galerkin method is proposed to solve the ordinary differential equation satisfied by the consumption. • The theoretical results of the discontinuous Galerkin method are obtained. • We establish a Markov model to forecast the energy mix and the industrial structure. - Abstract: In this paper, we assume that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path, the economic growth rate is equal to the consumption growth rate, from which we can obtain the ordinary differential equation governing the consumption level by solving an optimal control problem. Then, a novel numerical method, namely a so-called discontinuous Galerkin method, is applied to solve the ordinary differential equation. The error estimation and the superconvergence estimation of this method are also performed. The model’s mechanism, which makes our assumption coherent, is that once the energy intensity is given, the economic growth is determined, followed by the GDP, the energy demand and the emissions. By applying this model to China, we obtain the conclusion that under the balanced and optimal economic growth path the CO_2 emission will reach its peak in 2030 in China, which is consistent with the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and with other previous scientific results.

  3. A Generic Water Balance Model for a Trench Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Choi, Hee Joo

    2016-01-01

    To quantify the exposure dose rates from the nuclide release and transport through the various pathways possible in the near- and far-fields of the LILW repository system, various scenarios are to be conveniently simulated in a straightforward manner and extensively with this GoldSim model, as similarly developed for other various types of repositories in previous studies. Through this study, a result from four scenario cases, each of which is or is not associated with water balance, are compared to each other to see what happens in different cases in which an overflow over a trench rooftop, stochastic rainfall on the trench cover, and an unsaturated flow scheme under the trench bottom are combined. The other two latter elements vary periodically owing to stochastic behavior of the time series data for the past rain-fall records. This program is ready for a total system performance assessment and is able to deterministically and probabilistically evaluate the nuclide release from a repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various scenarios that can occur after a failure of waste packages with associated uncertainty. An illustration conducted through a study with a new water balance scheme shows the possibility of a stochastic evaluation associated with the stochastic behavior and various pathways that happen around the trench repository.

  4. A Generic Water Balance Model for a Trench Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Choi, Hee Joo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To quantify the exposure dose rates from the nuclide release and transport through the various pathways possible in the near- and far-fields of the LILW repository system, various scenarios are to be conveniently simulated in a straightforward manner and extensively with this GoldSim model, as similarly developed for other various types of repositories in previous studies. Through this study, a result from four scenario cases, each of which is or is not associated with water balance, are compared to each other to see what happens in different cases in which an overflow over a trench rooftop, stochastic rainfall on the trench cover, and an unsaturated flow scheme under the trench bottom are combined. The other two latter elements vary periodically owing to stochastic behavior of the time series data for the past rain-fall records. This program is ready for a total system performance assessment and is able to deterministically and probabilistically evaluate the nuclide release from a repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various scenarios that can occur after a failure of waste packages with associated uncertainty. An illustration conducted through a study with a new water balance scheme shows the possibility of a stochastic evaluation associated with the stochastic behavior and various pathways that happen around the trench repository.

  5. Mass Balance Model, A study of contamination effects in AMS 14C sample analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokopiou, Markella

    2010-01-01

    In this training thesis a background correction analysis, also known as mass balance model, was implemented to study the contamination effects in AMS 14C sample processing. A variety of backgrounds and standards with sizes ranging from 50 μg C to 1500 μg

  6. A self-consistent model of a thermally balanced quiescent prominence in magnetostatic equilibrium in a uniform gravitational field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.; Low, B.C.

    1977-01-01

    A theoretical model of quiescent prominences in the form of an infinite vertical sheet is presented. Self-consistent solutions are obtained by integrating simultaneously the set of nonlinear equations of magnetostatic equilibrium and thermal balance. The basic features of the models are: (1) The prominence matter is confined to a sheet and supported against gravity by a bowed magnetic field. (2) The thermal flux is channelled along magnetic field lines. (3) The thermal flux is everywhere balanced by Low's (1975) hypothetical heat sink which is proportional to the local density. (4) A constant component of the magnetic field along the length of the prominence shields the cool plasma from the hot surrounding. It is assumed that the prominence plasma emits more radiation than it absorbes from the radiation fields of the photosphere, chromosphere and corona, and the above hypothetical heat sink is interpreted to represent the amount of radiative loss that must be balanced by a nonradiative energy input. Using a central density and temperature of 10 11 particles cm -3 and 5000 K respectively, a magnetic field strength between 2 to 10 gauss and a thermal conductivity that varies linearly with temperature, the physical properties implied by the model are discussed. The analytic treatment can also be carried out for a class of more complex thermal conductivities. These models provide a useful starting point for investigating the combined requirements of magnetostatic equilibrium and thermal balance in the quiescent prominence. (Auth.)

  7. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  8. Can segmental model reductions quantify whole-body balance accurately during dynamic activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamkrajang, Parunchaya; Robinson, Mark A; Limroongreungrat, Weerawat; Vanrenterghem, Jos

    2017-07-01

    When investigating whole-body balance in dynamic tasks, adequately tracking the whole-body centre of mass (CoM) or derivatives such as the extrapolated centre of mass (XCoM) can be crucial but add considerable measurement efforts. The aim of this study was to investigate whether reduced kinematic models can still provide adequate CoM and XCoM representations during dynamic sporting tasks. Seventeen healthy recreationally active subjects (14 males and 3 females; age, 24.9±3.2years; height, 177.3±6.9cm; body mass 72.6±7.0kg) participated in this study. Participants completed three dynamic movements, jumping, kicking, and overarm throwing. Marker-based kinematic data were collected with 10 optoelectronic cameras at 250Hz (Oqus Qualisys, Gothenburg, Sweden). The differences between (X)CoM from a full-body model (gold standard) and (X)CoM representations based on six selected model reductions were evaluated using a Bland-Altman approach. A threshold difference was set at ±2cm to help the reader interpret which model can still provide an acceptable (X)CoM representation. Antero-posterior and medio-lateral displacement profiles of the CoM representation based on lower limbs, trunk and upper limbs showed strong agreement, slightly reduced for lower limbs and trunk only. Representations based on lower limbs only showed less strong agreement, particularly for XCoM in kicking. Overall, our results provide justification of the use of certain model reductions for specific needs, saving measurement effort whilst limiting the error of tracking (X)CoM trajectories in the context of whole-body balance investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

    2012-12-01

    A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

  10. Wii-habilitation as balance therapy for children with acquired brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatla, Sandy K; Radomski, Anna; Cheung, Jessica; Maron, Melissa; Jarus, Tal

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of the Nintendo Wii compared to traditional balance therapy in improving balance, motivation, and functional ability in children undergoing acute rehabilitation after brain injury. A non-concurrent, randomized multiple baseline single-subject research design was used with three participants. Data were analyzed by visual inspection of trend lines. Daily Wii balance training was equally motivating to traditional balance therapy for two participants and more motivating for one participant. While improvements in dynamic balance were observed, the results for static balance remain inconclusive. All participants demonstrated improvements in functional ability. Wii balance therapy is a safe, feasible, and motivating intervention for children undergoing acute rehabilitation after an acquired brain injury. Further research to examine the effectiveness of Wii balance therapy in this population is warranted.

  11. Balancing accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility in a radiative transfer parameterization for dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mlawer, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Radiation is key process in numerical models of the atmosphere. The problem is well-understood and the parameterization of radiation has seen relatively few conceptual advances in the past 15 years. It is nonthelss often the single most expensive component of all physical parameterizations despite being computed less frequently than other terms. This combination of cost and maturity suggests value in a single radiation parameterization that could be shared across models; devoting effort to a single parameterization might allow for fine tuning for efficiency. The challenge lies in the coupling of this parameterization to many disparate representations of clouds and aerosols. This talk will describe RRTMGP, a new radiation parameterization that seeks to balance efficiency and flexibility. This balance is struck by isolating computational tasks in "kernels" that expose as much fine-grained parallelism as possible. These have simple interfaces and are interoperable across programming languages so that they might be repalced by alternative implementations in domain-specific langauges. Coupling to the host model makes use of object-oriented features of Fortran 2003, minimizing branching within the kernels and the amount of data that must be transferred. We will show accuracy and efficiency results for a globally-representative set of atmospheric profiles using a relatively high-resolution spectral discretization.

  12. Calculating the water and heat balances of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin using ocean modelling and available meteorological, hydrological and ocean data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Omstedt

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Mediterranean water and heat balances wereanalysed over 52 years. The modelling uses a process-orientedapproach resolving the one-dimensional equations of momentum,heat and salt conservation; turbulence is modelled using a two-equation model. The results indicate that calculated temperature and salinity follow the reanalysed data well. The water balance in the Eastern Mediterranean basin was controlled by the difference between inflows and outflows through the Sicily Channel and by net precipitation. The freshwater component displayed a negative trend over the study period, indicating increasing salinity in the basin.The heat balance was controlled by heat loss from the water surface, solar radiation into the sea and heat flow through the Sicily Channel. Both solar radiation and net heat loss displayed increasing trends, probably due to decreased total cloud cover. In addition, the heat balance indicated a net import of approximately 9 W m-2 of heat to the Eastern Mediterranean Basin from the Western Basin.

  13. A Connectionist Model of a Continuous Developmental Transition in the Balance Scale Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schapiro, Anna C.; McClelland, James L.

    2009-01-01

    A connectionist model of the balance scale task is presented which exhibits developmental transitions between "Rule I" and "Rule II" behavior [Siegler, R. S. (1976). Three aspects of cognitive development. "Cognitive Psychology," 8, 481-520.] as well as the "catastrophe flags" seen in data from Jansen and van der Maas [Jansen, B. R. J., & van der…

  14. A parameter for the selection of an optimum balance calibration model by Monte Carlo simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bidgood, Peter M

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current trend in balance calibration-matrix generation is to use non-linear regression and statistical methods. Methods typically include Modified-Design-of-Experiment (MDOE), Response-Surface-Models (RSMs) and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA...

  15. Comparison of two balance training programs on balance in community dwelling older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shefali Walia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Impaired balance has been associated with an increased risk for falls and a resulting increase in the mortality rate of elder people. Thus, balance-training interventions have an important place in fall prevention. This study was designed with the purpose of identifying the appropriate balance-training program for community dwelling elderly adults with an active lifestyle. A sample of 70 elderly adults were randomly allocated into two groups: group 1 (n=35 received general balance and mobility exercise; group 2 (n=35 received specific balance strategy training. The intervention consisted of 5 sessions/week for 4 weeks. The outcome measures were Timed up and go test (TUGT and Berg balance scale (BBS. An inter-group (2-way mixed model analysis of co-variance and intra-group (repeated measures analysis was done to find the change in balance scores. After the intervention, the TUGT scores in group 1 were, mean=10.38 s, standard deviation (SD=1.59 s and in group 2 were, mean=9.27 s, SD=1.13 s. Post training, BBS scores for group 1 were, mean=54.69, SD=1.13, and for group 2 were, mean=55.57, SD =0.56. There was a significant group × time effect for TUGT and BBS score. All the subjects showed significant changes in balance scores after balance training interventions. The subjects who participated in the specific balance-strategy training significantly improved their functional mobility, as shown on the TUGT, compared to the general training group.

  16. Validity and Stability of the Decisional Balance for Sun Protection Inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Qing Yin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The 8-item Decisional Balance for sun protection inventory (SunDB assesses the relative importance of the perceived advantages (Pros and disadvantages (Cons of sun protective behaviors. This study examined the psychometric properties of the SunDB measure, including invariance of the measurement model, in a population-based sample of N=1336 adults. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the theoretically based 2-factor (Pros, Cons model, with high internal consistencies for each subscale (α≥.70. Multiple-sample CFA established that this factor pattern was invariant across multiple population subgroups, including gender, racial identity, age, education level, and stage of change subgroups. Multivariate analysis by stage of change replicated expected patterns for SunDB (Pros η2=.15, Cons η2=.02. These results demonstrate the internal and external validity and measurement stability of the SunDB instrument in adults, supporting its use in research and intervention.

  17. A Toolkit Modeling Approach for Sustainable Forest Management Planning: Achieving Balance between Science and Local Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian R. Sturtevant

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available To assist forest managers in balancing an increasing diversity of resource objectives, we developed a toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management (SFM. The approach inserts a meta-modeling strategy into a collaborative modeling framework grounded in adaptive management philosophy that facilitates participation among stakeholders, decision makers, and local domain experts in the meta-model building process. The modeling team works iteratively with each of these groups to define essential questions, identify data resources, and then determine whether available tools can be applied or adapted, or whether new tools can be rapidly created to fit the need. The desired goal of the process is a linked series of domain-specific models (tools that balances generalized "top-down" models (i.e., scientific models developed without input from the local system with case-specific customized "bottom-up" models that are driven primarily by local needs. Information flow between models is organized according to vertical (i.e., between scale and horizontal (i.e., within scale dimensions. We illustrate our approach within a 2.1 million hectare forest planning district in central Labrador, a forested landscape where social and ecological values receive a higher priority than economic values. However, the focus of this paper is on the process of how SFM modeling tools and concepts can be rapidly assembled and applied in new locations, balancing efficient transfer of science with adaptation to local needs. We use the Labrador case study to illustrate strengths and challenges uniquely associated with a meta-modeling approach to integrated modeling as it fits within the broader collaborative modeling framework. Principle advantages of the approach include the scientific rigor introduced by peer-reviewed models, combined with the adaptability of meta-modeling. A key challenge is the limited transparency of scientific models to different participatory groups

  18. A simulation of cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a mathematical power balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    The current study simulated cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a power balance model. By applying the hypothetical inductive deductive method, we compared the simulated position along the track with actual skiing on snow, and calculated the theoretical effect of friction and air drag on skiing performance. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature, whereas the model included relationships between heart rate, metabolic rate, and work rate based on the treadmill roller-ski testing of an elite cross-country skier. We verified this procedure by testing four models of metabolic rate against experimental data on the treadmill. The experimental data corresponded well with the simulations, with the best fit when work rate was increased on uphill and decreased on downhill terrain. The simulations predicted that skiing time increases by 3%-4% when either friction or air drag increases by 10%. In conclusion, the power balance model was found to be a useful tool for predicting how various factors influence racing performance in cross-country skiing.

  19. Effects of meteorological models on the solution of the surface energy balance and soil temperature variations in bare soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Hirotaka; Šimůnek, Jiri

    2009-07-01

    SummaryA complete evaluation of the soil thermal regime can be obtained by evaluating the movement of liquid water, water vapor, and thermal energy in the subsurface. Such an evaluation requires the simultaneous solution of the system of equations for the surface water and energy balance, and subsurface heat transport and water flow. When only daily climatic data is available, one needs not only to estimate diurnal cycles of climatic data, but to calculate the continuous values of various components in the energy balance equation, using different parameterization methods. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the choice of different estimation and parameterization methods, referred together to as meteorological models in this paper, on soil temperature predictions in bare soils. A variety of widely accepted meteorological models were tested on the dataset collected at a proposed low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in the Chihuahua Desert in West Texas. As the soil surface was kept bare during the study, no vegetation effects were evaluated. A coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transport model, implemented in the HYDRUS-1D program, was used to simulate diurnal and seasonal soil temperature changes in the engineered cover installed at the site. The modified version of HYDRUS provides a flexible means for using various types of information and different models to evaluate surface mass and energy balance. Different meteorological models were compared in terms of their prediction errors for soil temperatures at seven observation depths. The results obtained indicate that although many available meteorological models can be used to solve the energy balance equation at the soil-atmosphere interface in coupled water, vapor, and heat transport models, their impact on overall simulation results varies. For example, using daily average climatic data led to greater prediction errors, while relatively simple meteorological models may

  20. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  1. The Whole Earth Happens As You Do. The Balance of Lifekind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbald, David; McInnis, Noel

    This booklet presents a unified perspective of natural and human systems. The problems of contemporary civilization are analyzed in terms of the interrelationships among energy, food, evolution, population, community, interactions, and balance. The authors' philosophy emphasizes that all life depends on the balance between natural systems and…

  2. The genealogy of sequences containing multiple sites subject to strong selection in a subdivided population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordborg, Magnus; Innan, Hideki

    2003-03-01

    A stochastic model for the genealogy of a sample of recombining sequences containing one or more sites subject to selection in a subdivided population is described. Selection is incorporated by dividing the population into allelic classes and then conditioning on the past sizes of these classes. The past allele frequencies at the selected sites are thus treated as parameters rather than as random variables. The purpose of the model is not to investigate the dynamics of selection, but to investigate effects of linkage to the selected sites on the genealogy of the surrounding chromosomal region. This approach is useful for modeling strong selection, when it is natural to parameterize the past allele frequencies at the selected sites. Several models of strong balancing selection are used as examples, and the effects on the pattern of neutral polymorphism in the chromosomal region are discussed. We focus in particular on the statistical power to detect balancing selection when it is present.

  3. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  4. Relative performance of empirical and physical models in assessing the seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Réveillet, Marion; Six, Delphine; Vincent, Christian; Rabatel, Antoine; Dumont, Marie; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Morin, Samuel; Vionnet, Vincent; Litt, Maxime

    2018-04-01

    This study focuses on simulations of the seasonal and annual surface mass balance (SMB) of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps) for the period 1996-2015 using the detailed SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus snowpack model. The model is forced by SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis data, adjusted with automatic weather station (AWS) measurements to ensure that simulations of all the energy balance components, in particular turbulent fluxes, are accurately represented with respect to the measured energy balance. Results indicate good model performance for the simulation of summer SMB when using meteorological forcing adjusted with in situ measurements. Model performance however strongly decreases without in situ meteorological measurements. The sensitivity of the model to meteorological forcing indicates a strong sensitivity to wind speed, higher than the sensitivity to ice albedo. Compared to an empirical approach, the model exhibited better performance for simulations of snow and firn melting in the accumulation area and similar performance in the ablation area when forced with meteorological data adjusted with nearby AWS measurements. When such measurements were not available close to the glacier, the empirical model performed better. Our results suggest that simulations of the evolution of future mass balance using an energy balance model require very accurate meteorological data. Given the uncertainties in the temporal evolution of the relevant meteorological variables and glacier surface properties in the future, empirical approaches based on temperature and precipitation could be more appropriate for simulations of glaciers in the future.

  5. Relative performance of empirical and physical models in assessing the seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Réveillet

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on simulations of the seasonal and annual surface mass balance (SMB of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps for the period 1996–2015 using the detailed SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus snowpack model. The model is forced by SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis data, adjusted with automatic weather station (AWS measurements to ensure that simulations of all the energy balance components, in particular turbulent fluxes, are accurately represented with respect to the measured energy balance. Results indicate good model performance for the simulation of summer SMB when using meteorological forcing adjusted with in situ measurements. Model performance however strongly decreases without in situ meteorological measurements. The sensitivity of the model to meteorological forcing indicates a strong sensitivity to wind speed, higher than the sensitivity to ice albedo. Compared to an empirical approach, the model exhibited better performance for simulations of snow and firn melting in the accumulation area and similar performance in the ablation area when forced with meteorological data adjusted with nearby AWS measurements. When such measurements were not available close to the glacier, the empirical model performed better. Our results suggest that simulations of the evolution of future mass balance using an energy balance model require very accurate meteorological data. Given the uncertainties in the temporal evolution of the relevant meteorological variables and glacier surface properties in the future, empirical approaches based on temperature and precipitation could be more appropriate for simulations of glaciers in the future.

  6. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  7. Establishing Normative Values for the Barnett Balance Assessment Tool: A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica L. Cercone MSOTS

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to establish normative data for the Barnett Balance Assessment (BBA for individuals ages 18-70+ years. The BBA is a newly developed assessment tool that may address limitations present in other assessments currently used to detect balance deficits. The BBA was administered to 141 participants who had no history of medical issues that could impact balance. A review of the normative data collected indicated little variation in total assessment scores in the age categories of 18-29, 30-39, and 40-49, due to the presence of a ceiling effect. Variations existed in scores among participants in the remaining age categories (50-59, 60-69, and 70+. These findings may imply that the BBA has its greatest discriminative power in assessing individuals with impaired balance, and/or that the BBA is not sensitive enough to detect differences in individuals with mild balance impairments. The researchers suggest future studies be conducted with the BBA to establish norms with populations with known orthopedic or neurological conditions that may impair balance. Results of these studies could then be compared with the baseline data gathered in this study to determine the BBA’s usefulness in detecting balance impairments with clinical populations.

  8. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  9. A Wii Bit of Fun: A Novel Platform to Deliver Effective Balance Training to Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyatt, Caroline; Merriman, Niamh A; Young, William R; Newell, Fiona N; Craig, Cathy

    2015-12-01

    Falls and fall-related injuries are symptomatic of an aging population. This study aimed to design, develop, and deliver a novel method of balance training, using an interactive game-based system to promote engagement, with the inclusion of older adults at both high and low risk of experiencing a fall. Eighty-two older adults (65 years of age and older) were recruited from sheltered accommodation and local activity groups. Forty volunteers were randomly selected and received 5 weeks of balance game training (5 males, 35 females; mean, 77.18 ± 6.59 years), whereas the remaining control participants recorded levels of physical activity (20 males, 22 females; mean, 76.62 ± 7.28 years). The effect of balance game training was measured on levels of functional balance and balance confidence in individuals with and without quantifiable balance impairments. Balance game training had a significant effect on levels of functional balance and balance confidence (P Commercial hardware can be modified to deliver engaging methods of effective balance assessment and training for the older population.

  10. Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-Yr perspective, 1950-2080

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mernild, Sebastian H.; Liston, Glen E.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    to simulate variations in theGrISmelt extent, surfacewater balance components, changes inSMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A1B modeled by the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM) using boundary conditions from the ECHAM...... and correct RCM output data before they were used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirmthemodel's robustness. The authors simulated an ~90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 × 106 km2) from 1950...

  11. Modelling the contribution of supraglacial ice cliffs to the mass-balance of glaciers in the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

    2017-12-01

    Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice

  12. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  13. An efficient soil water balance model based on hybrid numerical and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Wei; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan; Ye, Ming; Liu, Zhao; Wu, Jingwei

    2018-04-01

    Most soil water balance models only consider downward soil water movement driven by gravitational potential, and thus cannot simulate upward soil water movement driven by evapotranspiration especially in agricultural areas. In addition, the models cannot be used for simulating soil water movement in heterogeneous soils, and usually require many empirical parameters. To resolve these problems, this study derives a new one-dimensional water balance model for simulating both downward and upward soil water movement in heterogeneous unsaturated zones. The new model is based on a hybrid of numerical and statistical methods, and only requires four physical parameters. The model uses three governing equations to consider three terms that impact soil water movement, including the advective term driven by gravitational potential, the source/sink term driven by external forces (e.g., evapotranspiration), and the diffusive term driven by matric potential. The three governing equations are solved separately by using the hybrid numerical and statistical methods (e.g., linear regression method) that consider soil heterogeneity. The four soil hydraulic parameters required by the new models are as follows: saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated water content, field capacity, and residual water content. The strength and weakness of the new model are evaluated by using two published studies, three hypothetical examples and a real-world application. The evaluation is performed by comparing the simulation results of the new model with corresponding results presented in the published studies, obtained using HYDRUS-1D and observation data. The evaluation indicates that the new model is accurate and efficient for simulating upward soil water flow in heterogeneous soils with complex boundary conditions. The new model is used for evaluating different drainage functions, and the square drainage function and the power drainage function are recommended. Computational efficiency of the new

  14. The application of mass and energy conservation laws in physiologically structured population models of heterotrophic organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooijman; Kooi; Hallam

    1999-04-07

    Rules for energy uptake, and subsequent utilization, form the basis of population dynamics and, therefore, explain the dynamics of the ecosystem structure in terms of changes in standing crops and size distributions of individuals. Mass fluxes are concomitant with energy flows and delineate functional aspects of ecosystems by defining the roles of individuals and populations. The assumption of homeostasis of body components, and an assumption about the general structure of energy budgets, imply that mass fluxes can be written as weighted sums of three organizing energy fluxes with the weight coefficients determined by the conservation law of mass. These energy fluxes are assimilation, maintenance and growth, and provide a theoretical underpinning of the widely applied empirical method of indirect calorimetry, which relates dissipating heat linearly to three mass fluxes: carbon dioxide production, oxygen consumption and N-waste production. A generic approach to the stoichiometry of population energetics from the perspective of the individual organism is proposed and illustrated for heterotrophic organisms. This approach indicates that mass transformations can be identified by accounting for maintenance requirements and overhead costs for the various metabolic processes at the population level. The theoretical background for coupling the dynamics of the structure of communities to nutrient cycles, including the water balance, as well as explicit expressions for the dissipating heat at the population level are obtained based on the conservation law of energy. Specifications of the general theory employ the Dynamic Energy Budget model for individuals. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  15. Validation of a robotic balance system for investigations in the control of human standing balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Billy L; Huryn, Thomas P; Van der Loos, H F Machiel; Croft, Elizabeth A; Blouin, Jean-Sébastien

    2011-08-01

    Previous studies have shown that human body sway during standing approximates the mechanics of an inverted pendulum pivoted at the ankle joints. In this study, a robotic balance system incorporating a Stewart platform base was developed to provide a new technique to investigate the neural mechanisms involved in standing balance. The robotic system, programmed with the mechanics of an inverted pendulum, controlled the motion of the body in response to a change in applied ankle torque. The ability of the robotic system to replicate the load properties of standing was validated by comparing the load stiffness generated when subjects balanced their own body to the robot's mechanical load programmed with a low (concentrated-mass model) or high (distributed-mass model) inertia. The results show that static load stiffness was not significantly (p > 0.05) different for standing and the robotic system. Dynamic load stiffness for the robotic system increased with the frequency of sway, as predicted by the mechanics of an inverted pendulum, with the higher inertia being accurately matched to the load properties of the human body. This robotic balance system accurately replicated the physical model of standing and represents a useful tool to simulate the dynamics of a standing person. © 2011 IEEE

  16. Examining The Evolution Of The Khuzestan Urban Population Using The Urban Primacy Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokhtar Karami

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Examining the status of a city in the surrounding metropolitan area network not only helpful for Specialists to understand the ups and downs of city life and surrounding it but also can set the groundwork for hierarchical relationships settlements and planners for discipline the urban network is studied. Research to study the evolution of the urban population in Khuzestan province was conducted during the statistical period 1957-2012. The method is a descriptive and analytical study. To collect the data in addition the study of literature the Facts Sheet the statistical yearbooks and census of population and housing censuses in all courses has been used. Then to enter data and analysis it the Excel and Minitab software was used. Models used in this study are Ginsberg index Urban Primacy Index Two City Index Four City Index Mehtas Four City Index Moomav and Alwosabi. The results show that is balance between the parameters of the Urban Primacy Indexes in Khuzestan province since 1957 to 1977. The process of balancing continue and is destroy until the beginning of the Imposed war and the depletion of the population of cities and in 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reached its highest level and due to the problems of the war in Ahvaz it earns the highest the Urban Primacy Index. Since 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reduced and their balancing process continues until 2012 that this balancing process due to natural population growth since after 1997.

  17. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  18. Feasibility and outcomes of the Berg Balance Scale in older adults with intellectual disabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppewal, Alyt; Hilgenkamp, Thessa I. M.; van Wijck, Ruud; Evenhuis, Heleen M.

    High incidence of falls and increased risk of fall-related injuries are seen in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). The Berg Balance Scale (BBS) is a reliable instrument for balance assessment in the population of (older) adults with ID. The aims of this study were to assess the balance

  19. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  20. Comparing Mass Balance and Adjoint-Based 4D-VAR Methods for Inverse Modeling of Nitrogen Dioxide Columns for Nitrogen Oxide Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, M.; Martin, R.; Henze, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Nitrogen oxide (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) emission inventories can be improved through top-down constraints provided by inverse modeling of observed nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns. Here we compare two methods of inverse modeling for emissions of NOx from synthetic NO2 columns generated from known emissions using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint. We treat the adjoint-based 4D-VAR approach for estimating top-down emissions as a benchmark against which to evaluate variations on the mass balance method. We find that the standard mass balance algorithm can be improved by using an iterative process and using finite difference to calculate the local sensitivity of a change in NO2 columns to a change in emissions, resulting in a factor of two reduction in inversion error. In a simplified case study to recover local emission perturbations, horizontal smearing effects due to NOx transport were better resolved by the adjoint-based approach than by mass balance. For more complex emission changes that reflect real world scenarios, the iterative finite difference mass balance and adjoint methods produce similar top-down inventories when inverting hourly synthetic observations, both reducing the a priori error by factors of 3-4. Inversions of data sets that simulate satellite observations from low Earth and geostationary orbits also indicate that both the mass balance and adjoint inversions produce similar results, reducing a priori error by a factor of 3. As the iterative finite difference mass balance method provides similar accuracy as the adjoint-based 4D-VAR method, it offers the ability to efficiently estimate top-down emissions using models that do not have an adjoint.

  1. Water Balance Simulations of a PEM Fuel Cell Using a Two-Fluid Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berning, Torsten; Odgaard, Madeleine; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2010-01-01

    A previously published computational multi-phase model of a polymer-electrolyte membrane fuel cell has been extended in order to account for the anode side and the electrolyte membrane. The model has been applied to study the water balance of a fuel cell during operation under various humidificat...... net water transport coefficient. Thus we can reduce flooding at the cathode and may obtain improved cell performance due to a better humidified membrane. The results also suggest that membrane dehydration may occur at either anode or cathode depending on the net water transport....

  2. Enhancing the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) Approach for Estimating Landscape ET: Validation with the METRIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, Gabriel B.; Budde, Michael E.; Verdin, James P.

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) can be derived from satellite data using surface energy balance principles. METRIC (Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) is one of the most widely used models available in the literature to estimate ET from satellite imagery. The Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model is much easier and less expensive to implement. The main purpose of this research was to present an enhanced version of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model and to evaluate its performance using the established METRIC model. In this study, SSEB and METRIC ET fractions were compared using 7 Landsat images acquired for south central Idaho during the 2003 growing season. The enhanced SSEB model compared well with the METRIC model output exhibiting an r2 improvement from 0.83 to 0.90 in less complex topography (elevation less than 2000 m) and with an improvement of r2 from 0.27 to 0.38 in more complex (mountain) areas with elevation greater than 2000 m. Independent evaluation showed that both models exhibited higher variation in complex topographic regions, although more with SSEB than with METRIC. The higher ET fraction variation in the complex mountainous regions highlighted the difficulty of capturing the radiation and heat transfer physics on steep slopes having variable aspect with the simple index model, and the need to conduct more research. However, the temporal consistency of the results suggests that the SSEB model can be used on a wide range of elevation (more successfully up 2000 m) to detect anomalies in space and time for water resources management and monitoring such as for drought early warning systems in data scarce regions. SSEB has a potential for operational agro-hydrologic applications to estimate ET with inputs of surface temperature, NDVI, DEM and reference ET.

  3. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  4. Application of a water balance model for estimating deep infiltration in a karstic watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lúcia Calijuri

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The current scenario of water scarcity evidences the need for an adequate management of water resources. In karstic regions, the water flow through fractures significantly increases the water infiltration rate, which explains the small number of rivers and the importance of groundwater for urban supply. Therefore, the water balance is necessary since it may aid decision making processes and guide water management projects. The objective of this paper was to perform the water balance of a watershed situated in a karstic region quantifying infiltration, runoff and evapotranspiration. The study area is located near the Tancredo Neves International Airport in Confins, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Most of the area consists of forest formations (40.9%, and pastures (34.5%. In order to estimate deep infiltration, the BALSEQ model was used. BALSEQ is a numeric model of sequential water balance in which deep infiltration at the end of the day is given by the difference between daily precipitation and the sum of surface runoff, evapotranspiration and the variation of the amount of water stored in the soil. The results show that approximately 60% of total annual precipitation result in deep infiltration, considering the recharge period from September to March. After the dry period, the areas with no vegetal cover present higher deep infiltration. However, over the months, the contribution of the vegetated areas becomes greater, showing the importance of these areas to aquifer recharge.

  5. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  6. A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

    2018-03-01

    Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

  7. Balance or Synergies between Environment and Economy—A Note on Model Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wolf

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The UN sustainable development goals contain environmental, economic, and social objectives. They may only be reached, or at least it would be easier to reach them, if instead of a trade-off between these objectives that implies a need for balancing them, there are synergies to be reaped. This paper discusses how the structures of economic models typically used in policy analysis influence whether win–win strategies for the environment and the economy can be conceptualised and analysed. With a focus on climate policy modelling, the paper points out how, by construction, commonly used model structures find mitigation costs rather than benefits. This paper describes mechanisms that, when added to these model structures, can bring win–win options into a model’s solution horizon, and which provide a spectrum of alternative modelling approaches that allow for the identification of such options.

  8. Development of a simplified urban water balance model (WABILA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrichs, M; Langner, J; Uhl, M

    2016-01-01

    During the last decade, water sensitive urban design (WSUD) has become more and more accepted. However, there is not any simple tool or option available to evaluate the influence of these measures on the local water balance. To counteract the impact of new settlements, planners focus on mitigating increases in runoff through installation of infiltration systems. This leads to an increasing non-natural groundwater recharge and decreased evapotranspiration. Simple software tools which evaluate or simulate the effect of WSUD on the local water balance are still needed. The authors developed a tool named WABILA (Wasserbilanz) that could support planners for optimal WSUD. WABILA is an easy-to-use planning tool that is based on simplified regression functions for established measures and land covers. Results show that WSUD has to be site-specific, based on climate conditions and the natural water balance.

  9. Population and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okita, S

    1989-03-01

    This speech on the life and work of Rafael Salas, who had been the first executive director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and who contributed immensely to global awareness of population as a vital issue, inaugurated the Rafael M. Salas Lecture Series at the UN. Salas was concerned with individual rights and socioeconomic development while maintaining a balance between population and the environment. He built a large multinational assistance program for population activities and increased funding from $2.5 million in 1969 to $175 million to support 2500 projects in 130 developing countries. He organized both the 1974 World Population Conference and the 1984 International Conference on Population. In developing countries malnutrition and poverty are intertwined, lowering productivity and making people prone to diseases. Infant and child mortality rises with the malnutrition of mothers, therefore campaigns modelled after the postwar Japanese efforts are needed to improve nutrition, to train dietitians, and to introduce school lunch programs. Population stabilization could also be achieved in developing countries by raising income levels, although in Latin American countries birth rates have stayed the same despite increasing income. Direct measures are effective in reducing the birth rate: primary school education, increased income, improved nutrition, decline in infant mortality, higher status of women, and decisive governmental population policy. The Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth predicted that sometime in the 21st century a sudden decline in both population and industrial capacity will be reached at the present growth trends.

  10. Intraflagellar transport particle size scales inversely with flagellar length: revisiting the balance-point length control model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Benjamin D; Ludington, William B; Marshall, Wallace F

    2009-10-05

    The assembly and maintenance of eukaryotic flagella are regulated by intraflagellar transport (IFT), the bidirectional traffic of IFT particles (recently renamed IFT trains) within the flagellum. We previously proposed the balance-point length control model, which predicted that the frequency of train transport should decrease as a function of flagellar length, thus modulating the length-dependent flagellar assembly rate. However, this model was challenged by the differential interference contrast microscopy observation that IFT frequency is length independent. Using total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy to quantify protein traffic during the regeneration of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii flagella, we determined that anterograde IFT trains in short flagella are composed of more kinesin-associated protein and IFT27 proteins than trains in long flagella. This length-dependent remodeling of train size is consistent with the kinetics of flagellar regeneration and supports a revised balance-point model of flagellar length control in which the size of anterograde IFT trains tunes the rate of flagellar assembly.

  11. Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

  12. Importance of ecohydrological modelling approaches in the prediction of plant behaviour and water balance at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Arias, Alicia; Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    Vegetation plays a main role in the water balance of most hydrological systems. However, in the past it has been barely considered the effect of the interception and evapotranspiration for hydrological modelling purposes. During the last years many authors have recognised and supported ecohydrological approaches instead of traditional strategies. This contribution is aimed to demonstrate the pivotal role of the vegetation in ecohydrological models and that a better understanding of the hydrological systems can be achieved by considering the appropriate processes related to plants. The study is performed in two scales: the plot scale and the reach scale. At plot scale, only zonal vegetation was considered while at reach scale both zonal and riparian were taken into account. In order to assure the main role of the water on the vegetation development, semiarid environments have been selected for the case studies. Results show an increase of the capabilities to predict plant behaviour and water balance when interception and evapotranspiration are taken into account in the soil water balance

  13. Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troch, Peter A.; Mancini, Marco; Paniconi, Claudio; Wood, Eric F.

    1993-01-01

    The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

  14. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  15. A contribution to the validation of the Wii Balance Board for the assessment of standing balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavan, Piero; Cardaioli, Matteo; Ferri, Ilaria; Gobbi, Erica; Carraro, Attilio

    2015-01-01

    Valid and reliable accessible measures of balance are required in a health-related fitness test battery, both in the general population and in groups with special needs. For this purpose, the capability of the Wii Balance Board (WBB) in evaluating standing balance was analysed and compared with a laboratory-graded force platform (FP). A 30-s double limb standing test with open and closed eyes was performed by 28 individuals (12 male and 16 female, mean age = 23.8, SD = ±2.7 years). A simple method of acquisition of the centre of pressure (CoP) over time was applied to compare WBB and FP simultaneously on the same signal. User-defined software was developed to obtain the CoP from WBB over time and the resulting related measures and graphical representations. The comparison of measures, such as sway path and maximum oscillations along the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral direction, obtained with the FP and the WBB shows that the latter, in conjunction with the user-defined developed software, can be appropriate, considering prescribed limits, and an easy-to-use tool for evaluating standing balance.

  16. Self-organization in Balanced State Networks by STDP and Homeostatic Plasticity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Effenberger

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Structural inhomogeneities in synaptic efficacies have a strong impact on population response dynamics of cortical networks and are believed to play an important role in their functioning. However, little is known about how such inhomogeneities could evolve by means of synaptic plasticity. Here we present an adaptive model of a balanced neuronal network that combines two different types of plasticity, STDP and synaptic scaling. The plasticity rules yield both long-tailed distributions of synaptic weights and firing rates. Simultaneously, a highly connected subnetwork of driver neurons with strong synapses emerges. Coincident spiking activity of several driver cells can evoke population bursts and driver cells have similar dynamical properties as leader neurons found experimentally. Our model allows us to observe the delicate interplay between structural and dynamical properties of the emergent inhomogeneities. It is simple, robust to parameter changes and able to explain a multitude of different experimental findings in one basic network.

  17. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  18. Model of observed stochastic balance between work and free time supporting the LQTAI definition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2008-01-01

    A balance differential equation between free time and money-producing work time on the national economy level is formulated in a previous paper in terms of two dimensionless quantities, the fraction of work time and the total productivity factor defined as the ratio of the Gross Domestic Product...... significant systematically balance influencing parameters on the macro economical level than those considered in the definition in the previous paper of the Life Quality Time Allocation Index....... to the total salary paid in return for work. Among the solutions there is one relation that compares surprisingly well with the relevant sequences of Danish data spanning from 1948 to 2003, and also with similar data from several other countries except for slightly different model parameter values. Statistical...

  19. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S

    2016-03-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  20. Generalized detailed balance theory of solar cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchartz, Thomas

    2009-12-12

    The principle of detailed balance is the requirement that every microscopic process in a system must be in equilibrium with its inverse process, when the system itself is in thermodynamic equilibrium. This detailed balance principle has been of special importance for photovoltaics, since it allows the calculation of the limiting efficiency of a given solar cell by defining the only fundamental loss process as the radiative recombination of electron/hole pairs followed by the emission of a photon. In equilibrium, i.e. in the dark and without applied voltage, the absorbed and emitted photon flux must be equal due to detailed balance. This equality determines the radiative recombination from absorption and vice versa. While the classical theory of photovoltaic efficiency limits by Shockley and Queisser considers only one detailed balance pair, namely photogeneration and radiative recombination, the present work extends the detailed balance principle to any given process in the solar cell. Applying the detailed balance principle to the whole device leads to two major results, namely (i) a model that is compatible with the Shockley-Queisser efficiency limit for efficient particle transport, while still being able to describe non-ideal and non-linear solar cells, and (ii) an analytical relation between electroluminescent emission and photovoltaic action of a diode that is applied to a variety of different solar cells. This thesis presents several variations of a detailed balance model that are applicable to different types of solar cells. Any typical inorganic solar cell is a mainly bipolar device, meaning that the current is carried by electrons and holes. The detailed balance model for pn-type and pin-type bipolar solar cells is therefore the most basic incorporation of a detailed balance model. The only addition compared to the classical diode theory or compared to standard one-dimensional device simulators is the incorporation of photon recycling, making the model

  1. ANKLE JOINT CONTROL DURING SINGLE-LEGGED BALANCE USING COMMON BALANCE TRAINING DEVICES - IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION STRATEGIES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strøm, Mark; Thorborg, Kristian; Bandholm, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A lateral ankle sprain is the most prevalent musculoskeletal injury in sports. Exercises that aim to improve balance are a standard part of the ankle rehabilitation process. In an optimal progression model for ankle rehabilitation and prevention of future ankle sprains, it is important...... to characterize different balance exercises based on level of difficulty and sensori-motor training stimulus. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate frontal-plane ankle kinematics and associated peroneal muscle activity during single-legged balance on stable surface (floor) and three commonly used...... balance devices (Airex®, BOSU® Ball and wobble board). DESIGN: Descriptive exploratory laboratory study. METHODS: Nineteen healthy subjects performed single-legged balance with eyes open on an Airex® mat, BOSU® Ball, wobble board, and floor (reference condition). Ankle kinematics were measured using...

  2. Measuring and modeling carbon balance in mountainous Northern Rocky mixed conifer forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; Stenzel, J.

    2016-12-01

    Drought and wildfire caused by changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, increased fuel loads, and decades of fire suppression are reducing forest carbon uptake from local to continental scales. This trend is especially widespread in Idaho and the intermountain west and has important implications for climate change and forest management options. Given the key role of forests in climate regulation, understanding forest response to drought and the feedbacks to the atmosphere is a key research and policy-relevant priority globally. As temperature, fire, and precipitation regimes continue to change and there is increased risk of forest mortality, measurements and modeling at temporal and spatial scales that are conducive to understanding the impacts and underlying mechanisms of carbon and nutrient cycling become critically important. Until recently, sub-daily measurements of ecosystem carbon balance have been limited in remote, mountainous terrain (e.g Northern Rocky mountain forests). Here, we combine new measurement technology and state-of-the-art ecosystem modeling to determine the impact of drought on the total carbon balance of a mature, mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho. Our findings indicate that drought had no impact on aboveground NPP, despite early growing season reductions in soil moisture and fine root biomass compared to non-drought years in the past. Modeled estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) suggest that a simultaneous reduction in heterotrophic respiration increased the carbon sink for this forest. This has important implications for forest management, such as thinning where the objectives are to increase forest resilience to fire and drought, but may decrease NEP.

  3. The Effects of a Postural Balance Training Program on Balance, Gait and Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Essential Tremor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilge Kara

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Although the effectiveness of postural balance training on balance and gait impairment has been proven as an effective treatment approach in several patient and healthy populations, its effectiveness in patients with essential tremor (ET is yet unknown. The aim was to examine the effects of postural balance training program on balance and gait performance, and health-related quality of life in patients with ET. Materials and Methods: This uncontrolled clinical study included patients with ET. The outcome measures were the Postural Stability Test, Limits of Stability Test, Fall Risk Test, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale, Dynamic Gait Index, and Short Form-36. The assessments were performed before and after the training program. The participants underwent an 8-week balance training designed to improve their ability to integrate multisensory inputs and postural control using a computerized balance assessment and training device. Results: In total, 24 patients with ET participated in the study. The compliance rate was 87.5%. There were significant improvements in all outcome measures of balance and gait performance, balance confidence, fall risk, and health-related quality of life (except the mental component, p>0.05 between baseline and 8 weeks (p<0.05. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the balance training program is a feasible method that may have positive effects on balance performance and confidence, gait performance, and health-related quality of life in patients with ET

  4. A Population of Assessment Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daro, Phil; Burkhardt, Hugh

    2012-01-01

    We propose the development of a "population" of high-quality assessment tasks that cover the performance goals set out in the "Common Core State Standards for Mathematics." The population will be published. Tests are drawn from this population as a structured random sample guided by a "balancing algorithm."

  5. Goal-oriented Balancing: a New Model of Contemporary Sales Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars-Johan Åge

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the substantive area of sales management and it suggests that the main concern of a sales manager is to reach the sales and economical goals of the sales organization. The social process by which this main concern is resolved is called goal-oriented balancing and it describes two complementary organizational dimensions, frame development and individual development that are continuously balanced against each other. That is, the sales manager must establish effective organizational processes and structures as well as find the keys to maximum individual performance. These two processes have to be in balance and supportive of each other.

  6. BALANCE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, H.

    1953-01-01

    A torsional-type analytical balance designed to arrive at its equilibrium point more quickly than previous balances is described. In order to prevent external heat sources creating air currents inside the balance casing that would reiard the attainment of equilibrium conditions, a relatively thick casing shaped as an inverted U is placed over the load support arms and the balance beam. This casing is of a metal of good thernnal conductivity characteristics, such as copper or aluminum, in order that heat applied to one portion of the balance is quickly conducted to all other sensitive areas, thus effectively preventing the fornnation of air currents caused by unequal heating of the balance.

  7. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  8. GlobWat – a global water balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogeveen, J.; Faures, J.M.; Peiser, L.; Burke, J.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2015-01-01

    GlobWat is a freely distributed, global soil water balance model that is used by FAO to assess water use in irrigated agriculture; the main factor behind scarcity of freshwater in an increasing number of regions. The model is based on spatially distributed high resolution datasets that are

  9. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  10. Clinical measures of balance in people with type two diabetes: A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, C J; Knight, T; Binns, E; Ihaka, B; O'Brien, D

    2017-10-01

    Approximately 422 million people have diabetes mellitus worldwide, with the majority diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The complications of diabetes mellitus include diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) and retinopathy, both of which can lead to balance impairments. Balance assessment is therefore an integral component of the clinical assessment of a person with T2DM. Although there are a variety of balance measures available, it is uncertain which measures are the most appropriate for this population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review on clinical balance measures used with people with T2DM and DPN. Databases searched included: CINAHL plus, MEDLINE, SPORTDiscus, Dentistry and Oral Sciences source, and SCOPUS. Key terms, inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to identify appropriate studies. Identified studies were critiqued using the Downs and Black appraisal tool. Eight studies were included, these studies incorporated a total of ten different clinical balance measures. The balance measures identified included the Dynamic Balance Test, balance walk, tandem and unipedal stance, Functional Reach Test, Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction and Balance, Berg Balance Scale, Tinetti Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence Scale, Timed Up and Go test, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Numerous clinical balance measures were used for people with T2DM. However, the identified balance measures did not assess all of the systems of balance, and most had not been validated in a T2DM population. Therefore, future research is needed to identify the validity of a balance measure that assesses these systems in people with T2DM. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. DRUM: a new framework for metabolic modeling under non-balanced growth. Application to the carbon metabolism of unicellular microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baroukh, Caroline; Muñoz-Tamayo, Rafael; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Bernard, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Metabolic modeling is a powerful tool to understand, predict and optimize bioprocesses, particularly when they imply intracellular molecules of interest. Unfortunately, the use of metabolic models for time varying metabolic fluxes is hampered by the lack of experimental data required to define and calibrate the kinetic reaction rates of the metabolic pathways. For this reason, metabolic models are often used under the balanced growth hypothesis. However, for some processes such as the photoautotrophic metabolism of microalgae, the balanced-growth assumption appears to be unreasonable because of the synchronization of their circadian cycle on the daily light. Yet, understanding microalgae metabolism is necessary to optimize the production yield of bioprocesses based on this microorganism, as for example production of third-generation biofuels. In this paper, we propose DRUM, a new dynamic metabolic modeling framework that handles the non-balanced growth condition and hence accumulation of intracellular metabolites. The first stage of the approach consists in splitting the metabolic network into sub-networks describing reactions which are spatially close, and which are assumed to satisfy balanced growth condition. The left metabolites interconnecting the sub-networks behave dynamically. Then, thanks to Elementary Flux Mode analysis, each sub-network is reduced to macroscopic reactions, for which simple kinetics are assumed. Finally, an Ordinary Differential Equation system is obtained to describe substrate consumption, biomass production, products excretion and accumulation of some internal metabolites. DRUM was applied to the accumulation of lipids and carbohydrates of the microalgae Tisochrysis lutea under day/night cycles. The resulting model describes accurately experimental data obtained in day/night conditions. It efficiently predicts the accumulation and consumption of lipids and carbohydrates.

  12. DRUM: a new framework for metabolic modeling under non-balanced growth. Application to the carbon metabolism of unicellular microalgae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Baroukh

    Full Text Available Metabolic modeling is a powerful tool to understand, predict and optimize bioprocesses, particularly when they imply intracellular molecules of interest. Unfortunately, the use of metabolic models for time varying metabolic fluxes is hampered by the lack of experimental data required to define and calibrate the kinetic reaction rates of the metabolic pathways. For this reason, metabolic models are often used under the balanced growth hypothesis. However, for some processes such as the photoautotrophic metabolism of microalgae, the balanced-growth assumption appears to be unreasonable because of the synchronization of their circadian cycle on the daily light. Yet, understanding microalgae metabolism is necessary to optimize the production yield of bioprocesses based on this microorganism, as for example production of third-generation biofuels. In this paper, we propose DRUM, a new dynamic metabolic modeling framework that handles the non-balanced growth condition and hence accumulation of intracellular metabolites. The first stage of the approach consists in splitting the metabolic network into sub-networks describing reactions which are spatially close, and which are assumed to satisfy balanced growth condition. The left metabolites interconnecting the sub-networks behave dynamically. Then, thanks to Elementary Flux Mode analysis, each sub-network is reduced to macroscopic reactions, for which simple kinetics are assumed. Finally, an Ordinary Differential Equation system is obtained to describe substrate consumption, biomass production, products excretion and accumulation of some internal metabolites. DRUM was applied to the accumulation of lipids and carbohydrates of the microalgae Tisochrysis lutea under day/night cycles. The resulting model describes accurately experimental data obtained in day/night conditions. It efficiently predicts the accumulation and consumption of lipids and carbohydrates.

  13. Continental-scale footprint of balancing and positive selection in a small rodent (Microtus arvalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin C Fischer

    Full Text Available Genetic adaptation to different environmental conditions is expected to lead to large differences between populations at selected loci, thus providing a signature of positive selection. Whereas balancing selection can maintain polymorphisms over long evolutionary periods and even geographic scale, thus leads to low levels of divergence between populations at selected loci. However, little is known about the relative importance of these two selective forces in shaping genomic diversity, partly due to difficulties in recognizing balancing selection in species showing low levels of differentiation. Here we address this problem by studying genomic diversity in the European common vole (Microtus arvalis presenting high levels of differentiation between populations (average F ST = 0.31. We studied 3,839 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP markers genotyped in 444 individuals from 21 populations distributed across the European continent and hence over different environmental conditions. Our statistical approach to detect markers under selection is based on a Bayesian method specifically developed for AFLP markers, which treats AFLPs as a nearly codominant marker system, and therefore has increased power to detect selection. The high number of screened populations allowed us to detect the signature of balancing selection across a large geographic area. We detected 33 markers potentially under balancing selection, hence strong evidence of stabilizing selection in 21 populations across Europe. However, our analyses identified four-times more markers (138 being under positive selection, and geographical patterns suggest that some of these markers are probably associated with alpine regions, which seem to have environmental conditions that favour adaptation. We conclude that despite favourable conditions in this study for the detection of balancing selection, this evolutionary force seems to play a relatively minor role in shaping the genomic

  14. Mean field theory for a balanced hypercolumn model of orientation selectivity in primary visual cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lerchner, Alexander; Sterner, G.; Hertz, J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a complete mean field theory for a balanced state of a simple model of an orientation hypercolumn, with a numerical procedure for solving the mean-field equations quantitatively. With our treatment, one can determine self-consistently both the firing rates and the firing correlations...

  15. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  16. A balancing act? Work-life balance, health and well-being in European welfare states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunau, Thorsten; Bambra, Clare; Eikemo, Terje A; van der Wel, Kjetil A; Dragano, Nico

    2014-06-01

    Recent analyses have shown that adverse psychosocial working conditions, such as job strain and effort-reward imbalance, vary by country and welfare state regimes. Another work-related factor with potential impact on health is a poor work-life balance. The aims of this study are to determine the association between a poor work-life balance and poor health across a variety of European countries and to explore the variation of work-life balance between European countries. Data from the 2010 European Working Conditions Survey were used with 24,096 employees in 27 European countries. Work-life balance is measured with a question on the fit between working hours and family or social commitments. The WHO-5 well-being index and self-rated general health are used as health indicators. Logistic multilevel models were calculated to assess the association between work-life balance and health indicators and to explore the between-country variation of a poor work-life balance. Employees reporting a poor work-life balance reported more health problems (Poor well-being: OR = 2.06, 95% CI = 1.83-2.31; Poor self-rated health: OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.84-2.17). The associations were very similar for men and women. A considerable part of the between-country variation of work-life balance is explained by working hours, working time regulations and welfare state regimes. The best overall work-life balance is reported by Scandinavian men and women. This study provides some evidence on the public health impact of a poor work-life balance and that working time regulations and welfare state characteristics can influence the work-life balance of employees. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  17. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  18. Analytical solution of population balance equation involving ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an effective analytical simulation to solve population .... considering spatial dependence and growth, based on the so-called LPA formulation as .... But the particle size distribution is defined so that n(v,t) dx is the number of ..... that was made beforehand in the construction of the analytical solutions ...

  19. Disruptive innovation in academic medical centers: balancing accountable and academic care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Daniel; Chen, Christopher; Ackerly, D Clay

    2015-05-01

    Numerous academic medicine leaders have argued that academic referral centers must prepare for the growing importance of accountability-driven payment models by adopting population health initiatives. Although this shift has merit, execution of this strategy will prove significantly more problematic than most observers have appreciated. The authors describe how successful implementation of an accountable care health strategy within a referral academic medical center (AMC) requires navigating a critical tension: The academic referral business model, driven by tertiary-level care, is fundamentally in conflict with population health. Referral AMCs that create successful value-driven population health systems within their organizations will in effect disrupt their own existing tertiary care businesses. The theory of disruptive innovation suggests that balancing the push and pull of academic and accountable care within a single organization is achievable. However, it will require significant shifts in resource allocation and changes in management structure to enable AMCs to make the inherent difficult choices and trade-offs that will ensue. On the basis of the theories of disruptive innovation, the authors present recommendations for how academic health systems can successfully navigate these issues as they transition toward accountability-driven care.

  20. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  1. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  2. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  3. Sustaining a world in balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-04-01

    The world balance of population and resources is the internationally accepted goal for the 20th century. There is agreement that the requirements are elimination of absolute poverty, the legitimate satisfaction of the majority population, reduction in the environmental cost of development, fairer distribution of the benefits of development, slower population growth, and more balanced distribution within and between countries. A profile is given for 15 development and population measures for the Philippines. In the Philippines over 50% of the population lives in poverty, and the numbers are increasing. Unemployment is high at 10.6% in 1991, and underemployment is estimated to be 31.6%. Limited employment opportunities are push factors for international labor migration, which has swelled to over 600,000 workers. The Philippines is losing forest at the rate of about 119,000 hectares per year, which would result in a total loss of forests in 12 years. The loss of biodiversity is apparent. Marine resources are being depleted, and average farm size per rural person is 0.38 hectares. The average family of 6 persons must produce food on only 2.28 hectares. The annual population growth rate is 2.3%, and the rate of food production is only 1%. Metro Manila is now the 18th largest urban area in the world. Air pollution is very high, and the water supply is polluted with salt. 14% of children under 6 years old are severely underweight. Iron deficiency anemia affects 60% of children 1-6 years old and 40% of children 7-12 years old. 3.5 million children are working, and 20,000 are child prostitutes. 85,000 street children live in 17 cities. Maternal mortality is estimated at 1600 women each year, and 24% of deaths in 78 hospitals were due to induced abortion. About 2.7 million women have unmet need for family planning, and 1.8 million desire family planning but are not using any method.

  4. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    OpenAIRE

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  5. Pressure balance inconsistency exhibited in a statistical model of magnetospheric plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, T. W.; Wolf, R. A.; Spiro, R. W.; Thomsen, M. F.; Korth, H.

    2003-08-01

    While quantitative theories of plasma flow from the magnetotail to the inner magnetosphere typically assume adiabatic convection, it has long been understood that these convection models tend to overestimate the plasma pressure in the inner magnetosphere. This phenomenon is called the pressure crisis or the pressure balance inconsistency. In order to analyze it in a new and more detailed manner we utilize an empirical model of the proton and electron distribution functions in the near-Earth plasma sheet (-50 RE attributed to gradient/curvature drift for large isotropic energy invariants but not for small invariants. The tailward gradient of the distribution function indicates a violation of the adiabatic drift condition in the plasma sheet. It also confirms the existence of a "number crisis" in addition to the pressure crisis. In addition, plasma sheet pressure gradients, when crossed with the gradient of flux tube volume computed from the [1989] magnetic field model, indicate Region 1 currents on the dawn and dusk sides of the outer plasma sheet.

  6. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  7. Modeling livestock population structure: a geospatial database for Ontario swine farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Salah Uddin; O'Sullivan, Terri L; Poljak, Zvonimir; Alsop, Janet; Greer, Amy L

    2018-01-30

    Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. We developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario. In the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.

  8. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  9. Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high - resolution climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, Janneke; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Box, Jason E.; Bales, Roger C.

    2009-01-01

    High‐resolution (∼11 km) regional climate modeling shows total annual precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet for 1958–2007 to be up to 24% and surface mass balance up to 63% higher than previously thought. The largest differences occur in coastal southeast Greenland, where the much higher

  10. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  11. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  12. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  13. Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Sean R; Williamson, Ryan C; Snyder, Adam C; Litwin-Kumar, Ashok; Doiron, Brent; Chase, Steven M; Smith, Matthew A; Yu, Byron M

    2017-01-01

    Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure.

  14. Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean R Bittner

    Full Text Available Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure.

  15. Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doiron, Brent

    2017-01-01

    Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure. PMID:28817581

  16. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  17. Scaling Properties of Dimensionality Reduction for Neural Populations and Network Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan C Williamson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have applied dimensionality reduction methods to understand how the multi-dimensional structure of neural population activity gives rise to brain function. It is unclear, however, how the results obtained from dimensionality reduction generalize to recordings with larger numbers of neurons and trials or how these results relate to the underlying network structure. We address these questions by applying factor analysis to recordings in the visual cortex of non-human primates and to spiking network models that self-generate irregular activity through a balance of excitation and inhibition. We compared the scaling trends of two key outputs of dimensionality reduction-shared dimensionality and percent shared variance-with neuron and trial count. We found that the scaling properties of networks with non-clustered and clustered connectivity differed, and that the in vivo recordings were more consistent with the clustered network. Furthermore, recordings from tens of neurons were sufficient to identify the dominant modes of shared variability that generalize to larger portions of the network. These findings can help guide the interpretation of dimensionality reduction outputs in regimes of limited neuron and trial sampling and help relate these outputs to the underlying network structure.

  18. Maintaining balance in elderly fallers: novel aspects of postural balance measures in elderly

    OpenAIRE

    Swanenburg, Jaap

    2009-01-01

    At first in this thesis, an intervention programme was tested for the effect on the risk of falling in a population of elderly. The aim of the study was to investigate if exercise, combined with protein intake and calcium/vitamin D supplementation would have a larger effect on the risk of falling and postural balance outcomes than calcium/vitamin D supplementation only. An observational performance test (risk of falling) and performance measurements (force platform) were used as outcome measu...

  19. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  20. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  1. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  2. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  3. Salinity controls on plant transpiration and soil water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perri, S.; Molini, A.; Suweis, S. S.; Viola, F.; Entekhabi, D.

    2017-12-01

    Soil salinization and aridification represent a major threat for the food security and sustainable development of drylands. The two problems are deeply connected, and their interplay is expected to be further enhanced by climate change and projected population growth. Salt-affected land is currently estimated to cover around 1.1 Gha, and is particularly widespread in semi-arid to hyper-arid climates. Over 900 Mha of these saline/sodic soils are potentially available for crop or biomass production. Salt-tolerant plants have been recently proposed as valid solution to exploit or even remediate salinized soils. However the effects of salinity on evapotranspiration, soil water balance and the long-term salt mass balance in the soil, are still largely unexplored. In this contribution we analyze the feedback of evapotranspiration on soil salinization, with particular emphasis on the role of vegetation and plant salt-tolerance. The goal is to introduce a simple modeling framework able to shed some light on how (a) soil salinity controls plant transpiration, and (b) salinization itself is favored/impeded by different vegetation feedback. We introduce at this goal a spatially lumped stochastic model of soil moisture and salt mass dynamics averaged over the active soil depth, and accounting for the effect of salinity on evapotranspiration. Here, the limiting effect of salinity on ET is modeled through a simple plant response function depending on both salt concentration in the soil and plant salt-tolerance. The coupled soil moisture and salt mass balance is hence used to obtain the conditional steady-state probability density function (pdf) of soil moisture for given salt tolerance and salinization level, Our results show that salinity imposes a limit in the soil water balance and this limit depends on plant salt-tolerance mainly through the control of the leaching occurrence (tolerant plants exploit water more efficiently than the sensitive ones). We also analyzed the

  4. Prospective identification of malaria parasite genes under balancing selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin K A Tetteh

    Full Text Available Endemic human pathogens are subject to strong immune selection, and interrogation of pathogen genome variation for signatures of balancing selection can identify important target antigens. Several major antigen genes in the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum have shown such signatures in polymorphism-versus-divergence indices (comparing with the chimpanzee parasite P. reichenowi, and in allele frequency based indices.To compare methods for prospective identification of genes under balancing selection, 26 additional genes known or predicted to encode surface-exposed proteins of the invasive blood stage merozoite were first sequenced from a panel of 14 independent P. falciparum cultured lines and P. reichenowi. Six genes at the positive extremes of one or both of the Hudson-Kreitman-Aguade (HKA and McDonald-Kreitman (MK indices were identified. Allele frequency based analysis was then performed on a Gambian P. falciparum population sample for these six genes and three others as controls. Tajima's D (TjD index was most highly positive for the msp3/6-like PF10_0348 (TjD = 1.96 as well as the positive control ama1 antigen gene (TjD = 1.22. Across the genes there was a strong correlation between population TjD values and the relative HKA indices (whether derived from the population or the panel of cultured laboratory isolates, but no correlation with the MK indices.Although few individual parasite genes show significant evidence of balancing selection, analysis of population genomic and comparative sequence data with the HKA and TjD indices should discriminate those that do, and thereby identify likely targets of immunity.

  5. Construction and completion of flux balance models from pathway databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latendresse, Mario; Krummenacker, Markus; Trupp, Miles; Karp, Peter D

    2012-02-01

    Flux balance analysis (FBA) is a well-known technique for genome-scale modeling of metabolic flux. Typically, an FBA formulation requires the accurate specification of four sets: biochemical reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secreted metabolites. The development of FBA models can be time consuming and tedious because of the difficulty in assembling completely accurate descriptions of these sets, and in identifying errors in the composition of these sets. For example, the presence of a single non-producible metabolite in the biomass will make the entire model infeasible. Other difficulties in FBA modeling are that model distributions, and predicted fluxes, can be cryptic and difficult to understand. We present a multiple gap-filling method to accelerate the development of FBA models using a new tool, called MetaFlux, based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The method suggests corrections to the sets of reactions, biomass metabolites, nutrients and secretions. The method generates FBA models directly from Pathway/Genome Databases. Thus, FBA models developed in this framework are easily queried and visualized using the Pathway Tools software. Predicted fluxes are more easily comprehended by visualizing them on diagrams of individual metabolic pathways or of metabolic maps. MetaFlux can also remove redundant high-flux loops, solve FBA models once they are generated and model the effects of gene knockouts. MetaFlux has been validated through construction of FBA models for Escherichia coli and Homo sapiens. Pathway Tools with MetaFlux is freely available to academic users, and for a fee to commercial users. Download from: biocyc.org/download.shtml. mario.latendresse@sri.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  6. The Energy Balance Study: The Design and Baseline Results for a Longitudinal Study of Energy Balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Gregory A.; Shook, Robin P.; Paluch, Amanda E.; Baruth, Meghan; Crowley, E. Patrick; Jaggers, Jason R.; Prasad, Vivek K.; Hurley, Thomas G.; Hebert, James R.; O'Connor, Daniel P.; Archer, Edward; Burgess, Stephanie; Blair, Steven N.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The Energy Balance Study (EBS) was a comprehensive study designed to determine over a period of 12 months the associations of caloric intake and energy expenditure on changes in body weight and composition in a population of healthy men and women. Method: EBS recruited men and women aged 21 to 35 years with a body mass index between 20…

  7. Generalised and Fractional Langevin Equations-Implications for Energy Balance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, N. W.; Chapman, S. C.; Chechkin, A.; Ford, I.; Klages, R.; Stainforth, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    Energy Balance Models (EBMs) have a long heritage in climate science, including their use in modelling anomalies in global mean temperature. Many types of EBM have now been studied, and this presentation concerns the stochastic EBMs, which allow direct treatment of climate fluctuations and noise. Some recent stochastic EBMs (e.g. [1]) map on to Langevin's original form of his equation, with temperature anomaly replacing velocity, and other corresponding replacements being made. Considerable sophistication has now been reached in the application of multivariate stochastic Langevin modelling in many areas of climate. Our work is complementary in intent and investigates the Mori-Kubo "Generalised Langevin Equation" (GLE) which incorporates non-Markovian noise and response in a univariate framework, as a tool for modelling GMT [2]. We show how, if it is present, long memory simplifies the GLE to a fractional Langevin equation (FLE). Evidence for long range memory in global temperature, and the success of fractional Gaussian noise in its prediction [5] has already motivated investigation of a power law response model [3,4,5]. We go beyond this work to ask whether an EBM of FLE-type exists, and what its solutions would be. [l] Padilla et al, J. Climate (2011); [2] Watkins, GRL (2013); [3] Rypdal, JGR (2012); [4] Rypdal and Rypdal, J. Climate (2014); [5] Lovejoy et al, ESDD (2015).

  8. Surface water management: a user's guide to calculate a water balance using the CREAMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, L.J.

    1984-11-01

    The hydrologic component of the CREAMS model is described and discussed in terms of calculating a surface water balance for shallow land burial systems used for waste disposal. Parameter estimates and estimation procedures are presented in detail in the form of a user's guide. Use of the model is illustrated with three examples based on analysis of data from Los Alamos, New Mexico and Rock Valley, Nevada. Use of the model in design of trench caps for shallow land burial systems is illustrated with the example applications at Los Alamos

  9. Predictive coding of dynamical variables in balanced spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K; Denève, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated.

  10. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  11. The Development of a Fault Tree Model for Balance of Plant System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Park, Jin Hee; Lim, Ho Gon

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a fault tree modeling method for BOP (balance of plant) system to develop a combined risk model and trip model, and the application plans of the developed model. Where, the trip means the reactor trip and turbine and generator trip. We have usually modeled the safety-related systems and their supporting systems to assess the risk analysis of a nuclear power plant. However, the BOP system.s condition change induces the risk change. That is, the BOP system.s condition is relevant to plants. performance and affects to the plant risk. The existing model for BOP systems is a simplified system model or SPV (Single-point vulnerability) evaluation model. However, these models are not effective enough to use for the plant's performance evaluation. Also, lately an integrated decision-making framework is required for risk-informed applications. The methods for monitoring the performance of a nuclear power plant differ from the purpose. For example, MSPI (mitigating system performance index) and MR (maintenance rule) use different methods and indexes to monitor the performance. Therefore, for consistent decision-making, it is necessary to develop a risk assessment model including a systems model inducing reactor trip. The system.s model inducing reactor trip and turbine/generator trip is defined as the 'trip model'

  12. Linking Economic Value Added, Direct Costing, and the Lean Thinking to the Balanced Scorecard in a System Dynamics Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Review, July-August, 2007], provide evidence that companies fail to see the possible benefits of combining and integrating several accounting practices into a single framework. Design/methodology/approach - We use a System Dynamics Modelling approach to the BSC-thinking. The BSC model includes the five...... Purpose - To show how three practices normally applied separately can be linked to support the strategy evaluation and the performance measurement in the balanced scorecard. Recent studies, e.g. Kaplan and Norton [Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System, Harvard Business...

  13. A daily salt balance model for stream salinity generation processes following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed a coupled salt and water balance model to represent the stream salinity generation process following land use changes. The conceptual model consists of three main components with five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores, (ii a saturated Groundwater Store and (iii a transient Stream zone Store. The Dry and Wet Stores represent the salt and water movement in the unsaturated zone and also the near-stream dynamic saturated areas, responsible for the generation of salt flux associated with surface runoff and interflow. The unsaturated Subsurface Store represents the salt bulge and the salt fluxes. The Groundwater Store comes into play when the groundwater level is at or above the stream invert and quantifies the salt fluxes to the Stream zone Store. In the stream zone module, we consider a 'free mixing' between the salt brought about by surface runoff, interflow and groundwater flow. Salt accumulation on the surface due to evaporation and its flushing by initial winter flow is also incorporated in the Stream zone Store. The salt balance model was calibrated sequentially following successful application of the water balance model. Initial salt stores were estimated from measured salt profile data. We incorporated two lumped parameters to represent the complex chemical processes like diffusion-dilution-dispersion and salt fluxes due to preferential flow. The model has performed very well in simulating stream salinity generation processes observed at Ernies and Lemon experimental catchments in south west of Western Australia. The simulated and observed stream salinity and salt loads compare very well throughout the study period with NSE of 0.7 and 0.4 for Ernies and Lemon catchment respectively. The model slightly over predicted annual stream salt load by 6.2% and 6.8%.

  14. Energy-balance climate models: stability experiments with a refined albedo and updated coefficients for infrared emission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1978-01-01

    A zonally averaged' climate model of the energy-balance type is examined. Recently published satellite measurements were used to improve existing parameterizations of planetary albedo and outgoing radiation in terms of surface and sea level temperature. A realistic constant for the diffusion of

  15. An active balance board system with real-time control of stiffness and time-delay to assess mechanisms of postural stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruise, Denise R; Chagdes, James R; Liddy, Joshua J; Rietdyk, Shirley; Haddad, Jeffrey M; Zelaznik, Howard N; Raman, Arvind

    2017-07-26

    Increased time-delay in the neuromuscular system caused by neurological disorders, concussions, or advancing age is an important factor contributing to balance loss (Chagdes et al., 2013, 2016a,b). We present the design and fabrication of an active balance board system that allows for a systematic study of stiffness and time-delay induced instabilities in standing posture. Although current commercial balance boards allow for variable stiffness, they do not allow for manipulation of time-delay. Having two controllable parameters can more accurately determine the cause of balance deficiencies, and allows us to induce instabilities even in healthy populations. An inverted pendulum model of human posture on such an active balance board predicts that reduced board rotational stiffness destabilizes upright posture through board tipping, and limit cycle oscillations about the upright position emerge as feedback time-delay is increased. We validate these two mechanisms of instability on the designed balance board, showing that rotational stiffness and board time-delay induced the predicted postural instabilities in healthy, young adults. Although current commercial balance boards utilize control of rotational stiffness, real-time control of both stiffness and time-delay on an active balance board is a novel and innovative manipulation to reveal balance deficiencies and potentially improve individualized balance training by targeting multiple dimensions contributing to standing balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

  17. Experiments to populate and validate a processing model for polyurethane foam. BKC 44306 PMDI-10

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mondy, Lisa Ann [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rao, Rekha Ranjana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shelden, Bion [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Soehnel, Melissa Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); O' Hern, Timothy J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Celina, Mathias C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wyatt, Nicholas B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Russick, Edward Mark [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bauer, Stephen J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hileman, Michael Bryan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Urquhart, Alexander [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thompson, Kyle Richard [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, David Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    We are developing computational models to elucidate the expansion and dynamic filling process of a polyurethane foam, PMDI. The polyurethane of interest is chemically blown, where carbon dioxide is produced via the reaction of water, the blowing agent, and isocyanate. The isocyanate also reacts with polyol in a competing reaction, which produces the polymer. Here we detail the experiments needed to populate a processing model and provide parameters for the model based on these experiments. The model entails solving the conservation equations, including the equations of motion, an energy balance, and two rate equations for the polymerization and foaming reactions, following a simplified mathematical formalism that decouples these two reactions. Parameters for the polymerization kinetics model are reported based on infrared spectrophotometry. Parameters describing the gas generating reaction are reported based on measurements of volume, temperature and pressure evolution with time. A foam rheology model is proposed and parameters determined through steady-shear and oscillatory tests. Heat of reaction and heat capacity are determined through differential scanning calorimetry. Thermal conductivity of the foam as a function of density is measured using a transient method based on the theory of the transient plane source technique. Finally, density variations of the resulting solid foam in several simple geometries are directly measured by sectioning and sampling mass, as well as through x-ray computed tomography. These density measurements will be useful for model validation once the complete model is implemented in an engineering code.

  18. Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

    2018-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

  19. An economic model of friendship and enmity for measuring social balance in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Shin, Euncheol; You, Seungil

    2017-12-01

    We propose a dynamic economic model of networks where agents can be friends or enemies with one another. This is a decentralized relationship model in that agents decide whether to change their relationships so as to minimize their imbalanced triads. In this model, there is a single parameter, which we call social temperature, that captures the degree to which agents care about social balance in their relationships. We show that the global structure of relationship configuration converges to a unique stationary distribution. Using this stationary distribution, we characterize the maximum likelihood estimator of the social temperature parameter. Since the estimator is computationally challenging to calculate from real social network datasets, we provide a simple simulation algorithm and verify its performance with real social network datasets.

  20. A nitrogen mass balance for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liptzin, D.; Dahlgren, R. A.

    2010-12-01

    , requires a net influx of N in feed to the state. In terms of exports, the riverine N loads are smaller than many more mesic climates. Because many of the large population centers are on the coast, N discharged directly from wastewater treatment plants into the ocean is almost four times greater than the N discharge of all of the watersheds in the state combined. Gas losses are estimated through a combination of bottom up approaches using field data, emissions inventories, and numerical models. The largest uncertainties are in emissions of N2 and NH3. Calculated by difference, groundwater N loading represents the largest loss term in the mass balance. Contamination of groundwater with nitrates is a serious concern in many areas of the state. Given the long residence time of groundwater in many aquifers like the Central Valley the current and past N inputs to groundwater pose a hazard to drinking water supplies for decades to come. These calculations along with the analysis of management and policy tools will help elucidate the spatial location or activities that would be best to target to reduce the negative consequences of human alteration of the nitrogen cycle.

  1. A Simplified Model of Human Alcohol Metabolism That Integrates Biotechnology and Human Health into a Mass Balance Team Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Allen H. J.; Dimiduk, Kathryn; Daniel, Susan

    2011-01-01

    We present a simplified human alcohol metabolism model for a mass balance team project. Students explore aspects of engineering in biotechnology: designing/modeling biological systems, testing the design/model, evaluating new conditions, and exploring cutting-edge "lab-on-a-chip" research. This project highlights chemical engineering's impact on…

  2. Delay effects in the human sensory system during balancing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepan, Gabor

    2009-03-28

    Mechanical models of human self-balancing often use the Newtonian equations of inverted pendula. While these mathematical models are precise enough on the mechanical side, the ways humans balance themselves are still quite unexplored on the control side. Time delays in the sensory and motoric neural pathways give essential limitations to the stabilization of the human body as a multiple inverted pendulum. The sensory systems supporting each other provide the necessary signals for these control tasks; but the more complicated the system is, the larger delay is introduced. Human ageing as well as our actual physical and mental state affects the time delays in the neural system, and the mechanical structure of the human body also changes in a large range during our lives. The human balancing organ, the labyrinth, and the vision system essentially adapted to these relatively large time delays and parameter regions occurring during balancing. The analytical study of the simplified large-scale time-delayed models of balancing provides a Newtonian insight into the functioning of these organs that may also serve as a basis to support theories and hypotheses on balancing and vision.

  3. Evaluation of water balance in a population of older adults. A case control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malisova, Olga; Poulia, Kalliopi-Anna; Kolyzoi, Kleoniki; Lysandropoulos, Athanasios; Sfendouraki, Kalliopi; Kapsokefalou, Maria

    2018-04-01

    Older adults are at risk for dehydration and its' potentially life-threatening consequences. Unrecognized dehydration can complicate chronic medical problems and increase morbidity. The objective of the study was to estimate water balance, intake and loss in elderly people living in Greece using the Water Balance Questionnaire (WBQ). WBQ was administered in winter to 108 independents (65-81yrs) (Group A), 94 independents (82-92yrs) (Group B) and 51 hospitalized (65-92yrs) (Group C). A database from previous study of 335 adults (18-65yrs) (Control Group) used for comparison. Mean estimates of water balance, intake and loss were, respectively, for Group A -749 ± 1386 mL/day, 2571 ± 739 mL/day and 3320 ± 1216 mL/day, for Group B -38 ± 933 mL/day, 2571 ± 739 mL/day and 3320 ± 1216 mL/day, for Group C 64 ± 1399 mL/day, 2586 ± 1071 mL/day and 2522 ± 1048 mL/day and for Control Group -253 ± 1495 mL/day, 2912 ± 1025 mL/day and 3492 ± 2099 mL/day. Significant differences were detected in water balance, intake and loss (p < 0.01). Water balance and water intake in Group A was the lowest. For Groups A, B, C and Control, contribution of solid foods to water intake was 36%, 29%, 32%, 25%, of drinking water was 32%, 48%, 45%, 47%, of beverages was 32%, 23%, 23% and 28% respectively. Significant differences observed in the contribution of drinking water and beverages (p < 0.01). Group A had lower water balance and water intake. Groups B and C had lower water intake from beverages. Copyright © 2018 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Introducing the Evaluation Tools for HSE Management System Performance Using Balanced Score Card Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The performance of the HSE units has various dimensions Leading to different performances. Thus, any industry should be capable of evaluating these systems. The aim of this study was to design a standard questionnaire in the field of performance evaluation of HSE management system employing Balanced Score Card model. Methods: In this study we, first determined the criteria to be evaluated in the framework of Balanced Score Card model based on the objectives and strategies of HSE Management System and existing standards, and then designed questions on every criterion. We used content validity and Cronbach's Alpha to determine the reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Results: The primary questionnaire was comprised of 126 questions some of which were omitted regarding the results obtained from the CVR and CVI values. We obtained the CVI average of environmental dimension to be 0.75 and its CVI average 0.71. Conclusion: With respect to the results of the reliability and validity of this questionnaire,and its standardized design we can suggest using it for evaluation of HSE management system performance in organizations and industries with the mentioned system.

  5. Harmonic and power balance tools for tapping-mode atomic force microscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sebastian, A.; Salapaka, M. V.; Chen, D. J.; Cleveland, J. P.

    2001-01-01

    The atomic force microscope (AFM) is a powerful tool for investigating surfaces at atomic scales. Harmonic balance and power balance techniques are introduced to analyze the tapping-mode dynamics of the atomic force microscope. The harmonic balance perspective explains observations hitherto unexplained in the AFM literature. A nonconservative model for the cantilever - sample interaction is developed. The energy dissipation in the sample is studied and the resulting power balance equations combined with the harmonic balance equations are used to estimate the model parameters. Experimental results confirm that the harmonic and power balance tools can be used effectively to predict the behavior of the tapping cantilever. [copyright] 2001 American Institute of Physics

  6. Comparison of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale to predict falls in community-dwelling adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Yong-Jin; Kim, Gyoung-Mo

    2017-02-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the predictive properties of Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales, in a group of independently-functioning community dwelling older adults. [Subjects and Methods] Ninety-seven community-dwelling older adults (male=39, female=58) who were capable of walking independently on assessment were included in this study. A binary logistic regression analysis of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores was used to investigate a predictive model for fall risk. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted for each, to determine the cut-off for optimal levels of sensitivity and specificity. [Results] The overall prediction success rate was 89.7%; the total Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores were significant in predicting fall risk. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined that a cut-off score of 40 out of 56 on the Berg Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.82) and specificity (0.67), and a cut-off score of 22 out of 40 on the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.85) and specificity (0.65) in predicting faller status. [Conclusion] The Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales can predict fall risk, when used for independently-functioning community-dwelling older adults.

  7. Modeling the dynamics of a non-limited and a self-limited gene drive system in structured Aedes aegypti populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Legros

    Full Text Available Recently there have been significant advances in research on genetic strategies to control populations of disease-vectoring insects. Some of these strategies use the gene drive properties of selfish genetic elements to spread physically linked anti-pathogen genes into local vector populations. Because of the potential of these selfish elements to spread through populations, control approaches based on these strategies must be carefully evaluated to ensure a balance between the desirable spread of the refractoriness-conferring genetic cargo and the avoidance of potentially unwanted outcomes such as spread to non-target populations. There is also a need to develop better estimates of the economics of such releases. We present here an evaluation of two such strategies using a biologically realistic mathematical model that simulates the resident Aedes aegypti mosquito population of Iquitos, Peru. One strategy uses the selfish element Medea, a non-limited element that could permanently spread over a large geographic area; the other strategy relies on Killer-Rescue genetic constructs, and has been predicted to have limited spatial and temporal spread. We simulate various operational approaches for deploying these genetic strategies, and quantify the optimal number of released transgenic mosquitoes needed to achieve definitive spread of Medea-linked genes and/or high frequencies of Killer-Rescue-associated elements. We show that for both strategies the most efficient approach for achieving spread of anti-pathogen genes within three years is generally to release adults of both sexes in multiple releases over time. Even though females in these releases should not transmit disease, there could be public concern over such releases, making the less efficient male-only release more practical. This study provides guidelines for operational approaches to population replacement genetic strategies, as well as illustrates the use of detailed spatial models to

  8. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Sheehan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest. We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history. Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme.

  9. Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908

  10. Burnout and satisfaction with work-life balance among US physicians relative to the general US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanafelt, Tait D; Boone, Sonja; Tan, Litjen; Dyrbye, Lotte N; Sotile, Wayne; Satele, Daniel; West, Colin P; Sloan, Jeff; Oreskovich, Michael R

    2012-10-08

    Despite extensive data about physician burnout, to our knowledge, no national study has evaluated rates of burnout among US physicians, explored differences by specialty, or compared physicians with US workers in other fields. We conducted a national study of burnout in a large sample of US physicians from all specialty disciplines using the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile and surveyed a probability-based sample of the general US population for comparison. Burnout was measured using validated instruments. Satisfaction with work-life balance was explored. Of 27 276 physicians who received an invitation to participate, 7288 (26.7%) completed surveys. When assessed using the Maslach Burnout Inventory, 45.8% of physicians reported at least 1 symptom of burnout. Substantial differences in burnout were observed by specialty, with the highest rates among physicians at the front line of care access (family medicine, general internal medicine, and emergency medicine). Compared with a probability-based sample of 3442 working US adults, physicians were more likely to have symptoms of burnout (37.9% vs 27.8%) and to be dissatisfied with work-life balance (40.2% vs 23.2%) (P < .001 for both). Highest level of education completed also related to burnout in a pooled multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, relationship status, and hours worked per week. Compared with high school graduates, individuals with an MD or DO degree were at increased risk for burnout (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; P < .001), whereas individuals with a bachelor's degree (OR, 0.80; P = .048), master's degree (OR, 0.71; P = .01), or professional or doctoral degree other than an MD or DO degree (OR, 0.64; P = .04) were at lower risk for burnout. Burnout is more common among physicians than among other US workers. Physicians in specialties at the front line of care access seem to be at greatest risk.

  11. A performance measurement using balanced scorecard and structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosha Makvandi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, balanced scorecard (BSC has been widely used as a promising method for performance measurement. BSC studies organizations in terms of four perspectives including customer, internal processes, learning and growth and financial figures. This paper presents a hybrid of BSC and structural equation modeling (SEM to measure the performance of an Iranian university in province of Alborz, Iran. The proposed study of this paper uses this conceptual method, designs a questionnaire and distributes it among some university students and professors. Using SEM technique, the survey analyzes the data and the results indicate that the university did poorly in terms of all four perspectives. The survey extracts necessary target improvement by presenting necessary attributes for performance improvement.

  12. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  13. Glacier mass balance and its potential impacts in the Altai Mountains over the period 1990-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Ohata, Tetsuo; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Kadota, Tsutomu; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2017-10-01

    The Altai Mountains contain 1281 glaciers covering an area of 1191 km2. These glaciers have undergone significant changes in glacial length and area over the past decade. However, mass changes of these glaciers and their impacts remain poorly understood. Here we present surface mass balances of all glaciers in the region for the period 1990-2011, using a glacier mass-balance model forced by the outputs of a regional climate model. Our results indicate that the mean specific mass balance for the whole region is about -0.69 m w.e. yr-1 over the entire period, and about 81.3% of these glaciers experience negative net mass balance. We detect an accelerated wastage of these glaciers in recent years, and marked differences in mass change and its sensitivity to climate change for different regions and size classes. In particular, higher mass loss and temperature sensitivity are observed for glaciers smaller than 0.5 km2. In addition to temperature rise, a decrease in precipitation in the western part of the region and an increase in precipitation in the eastern part likely contribute to significant sub-region differences in mass loss. With significant glacier wastage, the contribution of all glaciers to regional water resources and sea-level change becomes larger than before, but may not be a potential threat to human populations through impacts on water availability.

  14. History of falls, gait, balance, and fall risks in older cancer survivors living in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min H; Shilling, Tracy; Miller, Kara A; Smith, Kristin; LaVictoire, Kayle

    2015-01-01

    Older cancer survivors may be predisposed to falls because cancer-related sequelae affect virtually all body systems. The use of a history of falls, gait speed, and balance tests to assess fall risks remains to be investigated in this population. This study examined the relationship of previous falls, gait, and balance with falls in community-dwelling older cancer survivors. At the baseline, demographics, health information, and the history of falls in the past year were obtained through interviewing. Participants performed tests including gait speed, Balance Evaluation Systems Test, and short-version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Falls were tracked by mailing of monthly reports for 6 months. A "faller" was a person with ≥1 fall during follow-up. Univariate analyses, including independent sample t-tests and Fisher's exact tests, compared baseline demographics, gait speed, and balance between fallers and non-fallers. For univariate analyses, Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple comparisons. Baseline variables with Pfalls with age as covariate. Sensitivity and specificity of each predictor of falls in the model were calculated. Significance level for the regression analysis was Pfalls. Baseline demographics, health information, history of falls, gaits speed, and balance tests did not differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers. Forward logistic regression revealed that a history of falls was a significant predictor of falls in the final model (odds ratio =6.81; 95% confidence interval =1.594-29.074) (Pfalls were 74% and 69%, respectively. Current findings suggested that for community-dwelling older cancer survivors with mixed diagnoses, asking about the history of falls may help detect individuals at risk of falling.

  15. Ballet Balance Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Camilla; Erleben, Kenny; Sporring, Jon

    2006-01-01

    Animating physically realistic human characters is challenging, since human observers are highly tuned to recognize human cues such as emotion and gender from motion patterns. The main contribution of this paper is a new model firmly based on biomechanics, which is used to animate balance and basic...

  16. Mapping the Habitable Zone of Exoplanets with a 2D Energy Balance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Nicole Taylor; Dr. Lisa Kaltenegger, Dr. Ramses Ramirez

    2018-01-01

    Traditionally, the habitable zone has been defined as the distance at which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. However, different complexity models (simplified and fast:1D, and complex and time-intense:3D) models derive different boundaries for the habitable zone. The goal of this project was to test a new intermediate complexity 2D Energy Balance model, add a new ice albedo feedback mechanism, and derive the habitable zone boundaries. After completing this first project, we also studied how other feedback mechanisms, such as the presence of clouds and the carbonate-silicate cycle, effected the location of the habitable zone boundaries using this 2D model. This project was completed as part of a 2017 summer REU program hosted by Cornell's Center for Astrophysics and Plantary Sciecne and in partnership with the Carl Sagan Institute.

  17. Stochastic modeling for reliability shocks, burn-in and heterogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on shocks modeling, burn-in and heterogeneous populations, Stochastic Modeling for Reliability naturally combines these three topics in the unified stochastic framework and presents numerous practical examples that illustrate recent theoretical findings of the authors.  The populations of manufactured items in industry are usually heterogeneous. However, the conventional reliability analysis is performed under the implicit assumption of homogeneity, which can result in distortion of the corresponding reliability indices and various misconceptions. Stochastic Modeling for Reliability fills this gap and presents the basics and further developments of reliability theory for heterogeneous populations. Specifically, the authors consider burn-in as a method of elimination of ‘weak’ items from heterogeneous populations. The real life objects are operating in a changing environment. One of the ways to model an impact of this environment is via the external shocks occurring in accordance with some stocha...

  18. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ulrike; López, Damián A.; Silva-Busso, Adrián

    2018-04-01

    The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m)-1) and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains

  19. Epistasis can accelerate adaptive diversification in haploid asexual populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, Cortland K

    2015-03-07

    A fundamental goal of the biological sciences is to determine processes that facilitate the evolution of diversity. These processes can be separated into ecological, physiological, developmental and genetic. An ecological process that facilitates diversification is frequency-dependent selection caused by competition. Models of frequency-dependent adaptive diversification have generally assumed a genetic basis of phenotype that is non-epistatic. Here, we present a model that indicates diversification is accelerated by an epistatic basis of phenotype in combination with a competition model that invokes frequency-dependent selection. Our model makes use of a genealogical model of epistasis and insights into the effects of balancing selection on the genealogical structure of a population to understand how epistasis can facilitate diversification. The finding that epistasis facilitates diversification may be informative with respect to empirical results that indicate an epistatic basis of phenotype in experimental bacterial populations that experienced adaptive diversification. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  20. Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.